Author Topic: MARC FABER  (Read 599 times)

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MARC FABER
« on: September 15, 2016, 06:50:13 AM »



Dow 100,000? It could happen, says one of the stock market’s biggest bears

By Shawn Langlois
Published: Sept 14, 2016 3:02 p.m. ET

     21 
‘Through the central banking system, you introduce socialism’
Bloomberg News
Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report.
Everybody’s favorite purveyor of the freight-training financial apocalypse just offered up a twist to his outlook: The Dow could hit six digits.

“In an extreme money-printing environment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average can go to 100,000,” Marc Faber said in a recent interview on Epoch Times.

That’s, oh, about five times the level the blue-chip index DJIA, -0.18%  sits at right now — a rather appreciable follow-up to when he told us last month that the S&P 500 SPX, -0.06%  could see a 5% rally before getting slashed in half.


“We’re all on the Titanic,” he said at the time.


Of course, he framed his latest nugget in plenty of that extreme bearishness we’ve come to expect from the man affectionately known as “Dr. Doom.”

Like, for instance, his take on central banks.

“They could essentially monetize everything, and then you have state ownership. And through the central banking system, you introduce socialism and communism, which is state ownership of production and consumption. I don’t think the central bankers are intelligent and smart enough to understand the consequences of their monetary policies at present.”

And the imminent devastation.

“I suppose the system will collapse before we become like Venezuela. In the West, if they start to print money, the end game will be brief. Within five years, I expect the system to implode.”

So more of the same. Except for that Dow 100,000 part

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MARC FABER
« on: September 15, 2016, 06:50:13 AM »

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2016, 08:27:42 AM »



Economy Must Be Rotten If Fed Can’t Hike Interest Rate After 8 Years Of Expansion: Marc Faber
 
Agam Vakil
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Shraddha Babla
Shraddha Babla
October 7, 2016, 10:40 pm
October 8, 2016, 12:07 am
This week on Thank God It’s Friday, we spoke to investment guru and the author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report Marc Faber on when the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rate, the recent sell-off in gold, how he sees the U.S. Presidential elections play out, and India’s position relative to other emerging markets.
Recent Sell-Off In Gold
One asset class that you have been bullish on, is gold. And the love for gold in India is well known. Does that make you look at India positively and what did you make of the recent sell-off in gold?
Markets are volatile and there is a lot of leverage in the system. Hedge funds borrow money to buy gold, silver, equities, bonds, and currencies. Over the last 2 years, gold dropped almost 30 percent. So we have this volatility. People say markets are not volatile, but that’s not true. There’s a lot of volatility. And I think that the positioning in gold was heavily long. You have to see some of the hedge funds. They know what the positions of other hedge funds are. So when they know a hedge fund is heavily long gold on the margin, they may squeeze that position out by selling gold. And then the hedge fund which has large positions may have to dump gold and the price goes down. And then they can cover.
‘Trump Is A Better Choice’
Investors around the world are keeping an eye on two events in the United States. The first one, of course, is the Presidential elections and for now we know that Hillary Clinton has a slight edge over Donald Trump. In your opinion, who is a better candidate as far as the U.S. economy is concerned. What will be the implications for the world economy in either case?
 I think it would be good for the world if we have a U.S. President who is not a neocon and is not guided by people like the Bush family, but someone who is prepared to see the world the way it is. The world is not as it was a 100 years ago where western powers were able to colonise the world and impose their will. Today, we have countries like India and China and even Russia that have become very powerful. So we have to negotiate with these countries keeping in mind their perspective, not just our perspective of the world. And this is something Hillary Clinton just can’t do. She was Secretary of State so we know what her record is. She supported the invasion of Iraq. She supported and launched the invasion of Libya and she supported also the nation-building in Egypt and the war in Syria – all major disasters. And so I am telling myself, maybe after all, Trump is a better choice.
'Yellen Won’t Increase Interest Rate If Clinton Is Elected’
Do you believe Janet Yellen will hike interest rate in December, at least to keep her credibility?
If Hillary Clinton is elected, I very much doubt that she will increase interest rate. If Trump is elected, the likelihood of her increasing interest rate is very high.
Fed To Hike Interest Rate in December?
But under those circumstances, assuming that the Fed hikes interest rate by 25 basis points, how much leeway does it have to increase the rate beyond that?
My view is that the U.S economy has been slowing down over the last 12 months and corporate profits have been coming down, and so it’s not a good time to increase interest rate. On the other hand, the Fed lowered the rate to almost zero in December 2008. So in December 2016, in eight years, at zero interest rates, the economy must be stinking if you can’t increase interest rates during eight years of an expansion so something is wrong. So my view is that they should have already increased it in 2011 and they should increase it now.
I think on balance, zero interest rate – and now there are many voices that propose negative interest rate – is rather negative for the economy.
‘Central Banks Will Have To Continue Printing Money’
You have not really been a fan of equities for a very long time now but you do believe that some of the global central banks will continue printing money and infusing liquidity. Doesn’t that strengthen the case for investing in equities?
I was not a fan, for several years now, of U.S. equities. But I always said that emerging markets over the last 12 months have become relatively attractive. And so this year, we had the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam all up in the order of 15-25 percent. So I think we have to look at the world...there’s plenty of money floating around. One day it goes into commodities and then another day it goes into equities and then it goes into some currencies and then it goes into bonds and so forth. So we can’t be overly diplomatic. And second, I really believe the Fed and other central banks have no other option but to print money. The whole system collapses if they stop printing money. And so they will continue to print money. Over the last 18 years, the balance sheets of major central banks have gone up 16 times. I think they can go up by another 20 times or maybe 30 times or 100 times. If you can print money, you really can print money. The impact on the economy is of course not very good, but you can do it.
India’s Place In The Emerging Market Basket
So where does India stand in the emerging market basket?
 At present, the Indian economy is growing strongly. Maybe not as strongly as the government is publishing, but it is growing more than most countries in the world. The Indian economy, within the emerging market complex, is probably relatively attractive in terms of macro-economic developments. The problem occurs when we look at valuations, because good companies in general are not inexpensive. They are selling at 30-50 times earnings. So I think in India if you really want to make money you have to go to second line shares and focus on sectors. In the last few years, as you know, the world has gone into an indexing madness. They just put money into an index. I believe the next 10 years will allow active managers to make a lot of money because they can move from one sector to another. Now some will outperform and some will underperform, but at least you have an opportunity.
Attractive Themes In India
What ideas or themes do you like in India?
 Well I suppose that everywhere in Asia, one of the themes will be infrastructure. Infrastructure has a lot of potential in India for port facilities, roads, bridges, tunnels, and then you need infrastructure for tourism and domestic airline passengers. So you need to build hotels, airports etc. So that is a sector in my view that is very attractive. Another attractive sector is real estate – secondary locations like weekend homes and so forth.
Consumption Stocks Expensive
What about consumption? That is a theme which has done really well. What is your view there?
 As I said, in India there are some expensive stocks and the same applies to Thailand and the Philippines. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see that consumption is going up. That has led consumer-related stocks to go up very substantially. And in the process they have, in some cases, become rather expensive.
Problems with Deutsche Bank
There are problems emerging for one of the biggest banks in one of Europe’s strongest economies. How are you reading the situation in Deutsche Bank?
The crisis in 2007-08 occurred because we had excessive credit growth and because banks in Europe and of course in the U.S. changed their very nature – from being essentially institutions that accept deposits and then make loans to people, into big institutions that gamble with clients’ money. And so the first problem occurred with Bear Stearns and then Lehman Brothers in the U.S. and then AIG, and that was then bailed out. But the bailout did not lead to cleaning-up of the system. The banks were allowed to continue to gamble with their capital. And now with zero interest rates and with more leverage than in 2007 in the banking system and in total debt as a percentage of GDP, now there is a problem with Deutsche Bank. I suppose the bank is basically bankrupt. But the government will not let it go bankrupt. They will engineer some kind of a bailout. Either the government can ask the private sector to help Deutsche Bank or the government can help Deutsche Bank. But it is not that the bank will disappear. But I think what will happen over the time is that these banks like Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, UBS , JPMorgan, Citi will not be allowed to gamble in all kinds of speculative markets - whether it’s equities, swaps, currencies. So I think that in general we’ll move over time to sound the financial system. But it is not going to happen overnight, it will take a lot of time.
BloombergQuint

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2016, 06:37:15 AM »



Marc Faber: Hillary win a risk to markets; buy hard assets
17 Oct 2016 06:40 PM   | Source: CNBC-TV18
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In an interview with CNBC-TV18, maverick investor Marc Faber discussed his US election candidate pick, leaning towards -- as most Austrian economics-minded investors do -- the Republican candidate: in this case, Donald Trump.

He also talked about why the Fed's 'money-printing' policies were likely to prevent a major crash in global stock markets, even as they were looking expensive now.

Further, he reiterated his years-long call that investors seek exposure to "hard assets" such as gold and commodities and said the latter appeared to have bottomed out.

Below is the verbatim transcript of Marc Faber’s interview to Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.

Latha: First up do you think the markets could show more signs of worry over the American elections, do you think closer to November 8 we could see lot more jitters?

A: The belief is obviously that a Trump victory would be negative for asset markets, for the US market, and that a Hillary victory would be positive. But I am not so sure about this belief for the simple reason that Hillary is basically a neocon and a warmonger. She has invaded or supported the invasion of variety of countries already. So, that may lead to more international tension.

Whereas Trump is more aware of the fact that the US' superpower standing is gradually waning and that other countries are coming up and that US cannot fight and be the policeman of the whole world. [Trump realises] they have to gradually start to negotiate with other countries on equal terms.

Sonia: Is it like a lose-lose situation, half of the people don't want Trump to come onboard and now you are saying if Hilary comes onboard as well then there will be lots of international tension. Are we looking at a possibility of a big crack in global markets post the elections?

A: I don't think it will happen before the election because the Fed sniggersat the thought of a Trump victory. They are supporting Hillary Clinton as incidentally as the entire media establishment is support Hillary Clinton and is anti-Trump.

My view [on the market] is that in this environment we have now clear voices at the Fed and other central banks that basically they should be able to implement negative interest rates and that they might do well if they bought equities. So, under this scenario, you ask yourself what is actually the downside risk.

In my view under both Trump and Hillary will continue to print money, there is no other way out, the system is basically bankrupt. So, money printing will continue and then the question is what will happen to asset market?

In theory, they can continue to go up. As I pointed out, I am not optimistic about the global economy. But if you print enough money -- central banks' balance sheets have increased sixteen times between 1998 and 2015 -- why can't they go up another 10-20 times in the next five years?

In that scenario, the Indian market can go up, the Dow Jones could go to 100,000 and so on, anything is possible. We don't know how far the math professors at central banks will go.

Latha: Over the next quarter or two quarters, what do you see as red flags for the market, could it be the European banking system for instance?

A: Yes, this is a concern. European banks are in a very poor financial condition. They will need more capital but in theory, the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks can essentially provide liquidity to the established banks and the governments if they like. They can basically bail out banks.

They may have bail-ins here and there where some bond holders -- like there are coco bonds outstanding -- would get hurt to some extent but basically the government can essentially buy shares in the Commerzbank or Deutsche Bank andrecapitalise them. As a result of that, the government will be an owner of the 50 percent of the bank or 30 percent or whatnot. That is all possible. We just don't know. We are writing a report about this in a not-so-realistic economic and financial world.

Sonia: I read that in an interview you had given that over a ten-year period you prefer investing in the Indian markets rather than the US markets. What makes you so confident about India?

A: I know that there are studies that will negate this view but in my opinion, a country that grows at 5-7 percent such as India will have, in the long run, corporate profit growth that is about equal to gross domestic product (GDP) growth. If companies are well run and if they can expand for a given period of time as a percent of the economy, they can achieve earnings growth of say 10-15-20 percent per annum for a given period of time.

So, in other words, nominal economic growth translates into higher corporate profit and that in the long run translates into higher equity prices. That is the case for India.

In the case of US, we have had an expansion now for more than seven years. It began in 2009 in June. We are now already October 2016. So, by historical standards, the expansion is very old. Corporate profits have started to decline. The economy is hardly growing. I don't see where corporate profits will grow substantially in the US.

So, my view is if I look at the next 5-10 years emerging economy markets -- in particular, the Indian economy, which is going to easily grow at 5-7 percent per annum for the next ten years -- they will perform better than US.

There is one proviso however and this is the most important condition for financial markets to do well and it is this. I am afraid that there are so many Republicans and neocons of the Republican Party that supports Hillary that a deal between Hilary Clinton and neocons is already done. That the neocons will basically take over foreignpolicy and Hillary Clinton can print money in the US and distribute the money to minorities and god knows what. And that this deal can lead to international tensions, that then are not conducive to equities and bond prices.

Latha: What would you be buying now if your clients ask you to invest their money?

A: I would tell my clients we have had an incredible bond market rally since 1981. Bond yields are not going to go down much more, they may not go up substantially but they are not going to go to -5 percent. So, the bond market is relatively unattractive.

Does it mean that equities are much more attractive? That is far from certain because if yields on say the US 10-year treasury goes to 2.5-3 percent, that may hit back the equity markets as well.

So, I would tell the guy, look I am happy to invest your money but the returns over the next 5 or 10 years will be very disappointing to you because you expect to make between 8 and 12 percent on your portfolio every year. That is simply not going to happen.

Sonia: So, would we have to endure a big crash in global equity say, over the next 6-12 months, is that something you are forecasting?

A: It is not necessarily a forecast but it could easily happen. The US market is so much more expensive based on price to sales, price to earnings, price to book than any other market in the world that US stocks are in my opinion more vulnerable than in general perceived.

We were in February of this year at 1,810 on S&P. 1,810 from here would be a decline of more than 10 percent. But if the market goes to 1,810 we could go down also to 20 percent or even 40 percent.

But I believe that as we would approach the February lows on the S&P at 1810 that the Fed -- under the influence of the money printers and people like Larry Summers -- and other central banks will step in and start to buy equities to support the market.

Latha: Are you buying gold? Anything other than paperassets?

A: I am spending a lot of time thinking that the current financial system, that we can all agree is not sustainable in the long run. The big question is how will it all unwind? Will it unwind with a breakdown of democracy, with a breakdown of law and order? We just do not know.

But one of the potential significant problems that may occur is what the Fed and other central banks actually wish for and that is inflation. There is a good chance that commodity prices have bottomed out and that inflation in general will accelerate.

In other words, people’s cost of living will start to go up more than what is desirable. And that will depress real earnings, but it will be good for assets such as commodities, especially precious metals. Obviously, very negative for bonds and probably negative for equities when yields go up.

So, I want to own some commodities. If you look at sectors in the US or globally, what is inexpensive? Gold shares have rallied 100 percent from the lows, but they came down before by 90 percent, so they are still relatively inexpensive. You look at basic stocks that are producing copper or aluminium, these companies are not terribly expensive from a long-term cyclical point of view. So there, I see some value and that is where I would put some of my clients' money.

If you come with USD 1 million, I am not going to buy and put it all in gold and gold shares, that would be irresponsible. But I would tell you, maybe you should have at least 25-30 percent of your money in an asset that cannot be printed by central banks.

Sonia: You have confused us a little more about the US elections and who one should vote for. I know you cannot vote because you are sitting in Thailand, but if you could, who would you vote for?

A: Of course, I would never -- and I repeat never -- in my life vote for someone like Hillary Clinton or Bill Clinton. They aredishonest, have no morals whatsoever and there is so much smoke around them wherever they went, wherever they lived. When there is so much smoke, there must be also a big fire somewhere

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2016, 02:19:50 PM »



Marc Faber's contrarian way to play the Trump rally
Rebecca Ungarino   | @ungarino
17 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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 Marc Faber on stocks, bonds, gold and more   Marc Faber on stocks, bonds, gold and more 
Tuesday, 29 Nov 2016 | 4:05 PM ET | 06:17

06:17Marc Faber on stocks, bonds, gold and more
Marc Faber on stocks, bonds, gold and more 
11/29/16 4:05 PM ET
04:00Small cap stocks’ big winning streak to continue?
Small cap stocks’ big winning streak to continue? 
11/29/16 4:02 PM ET
02:39Market mystery: Bond-like stocks outperform bonds
Market mystery: Bond-like stocks outperform bonds 
11/28/16 3:36 PM ET
02:48Are stocks getting overvalued?
Are stocks getting overvalued? 
11/28/16 3:35 PM ET

With stock markets surging after the election, Marc "Dr. Doom" Faber is looking to several trades that appear contrarian, including gold and emerging markets.

Aside from gold, the editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report said he sees opportunity in some other beaten-down assets, such as the euro and bonds.

In an interview Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation," he also warned investors to stay away from assets that have rallied recently, like the U.S. dollar. And large-cap American stocks may not be all they're cracked up to be.

Essentially, investors should look to sectors and stocks that are "oversold, and avoid the sectors that are overbought," he said.

Faber said emerging markets, in the red since Election Day, could be a golden opportunity in the new year. He particularly likes Brazilian and Russian stocks, which have been "very miserable performers since 2011."

"I think that in 2017 my recommendation would be to overweight emerging economies, and I would also overweight Europe, partly because I think that the sentiment about the U.S. dollar is far too optimistic. I think the dollar is terribly overbought and overvalued, so I wouldn't get into the U.S. dollar at this time," Faber said.

The U.S. dollar index has risen 2 percent this month, climbing two weeks ago against a basket of currencies to its highest level in 13 years.

On the other hand, gold, often considered a safe haven trade in times of economic turbulence, has tumbled nearly 7 percent since the election. Faber said that gold, and shares of the gold miners are "attractive" at these relatively lower levels.

Meanwhile, "the U.S. market is not quite as strong as the indices would suggest," Faber said. He believes that a small number of stocks have led the rally, and that the U.S. economy has shown only "low-quality growth."

Faber has long had extremely bearish positions on U.S. stocks, and has been a gold bull, giving his predictions a mixed track record over the past few year

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2017, 01:47:00 PM »



特朗普也救不了美股?
且听末日博士怎么说……
740点看 2017年1月12日
 
麦嘉华预期,特朗普上台也无法挽救美股长期走势,恐怕很快得去求美联储推出QE4。(网络图)

(纽约12日综合电)“末日博士”麦嘉华(Marc Faber)又语出惊人了,虽然不改唱衰美股本色,但这次他把矛头对准了本月稍后将宣誓就职的美国候任总统特朗普,声称特朗普很快将会恳求美联储推出第4轮量化宽松(QE4)!


麦嘉华在接受CNBC访问时表示,特朗普主张的政策有利经济且对商业友善,自然有助提升小生意人、企业与投资人信心,但仅是如此不足以支撑股市长期不坠。即使他预期美股会继续走高,但也只是“站上更高的跳水台”,一旦事态有所变化,投资人就得承担风险。

麦嘉华说:“我认为,特朗普将有助美国经济,但这不必然意味资产行情将走扬,因为资产价格早已严重膨胀。”不过与先前相比,他如今的论调听来悲观程度减轻,去年他受访时曾警告,市场恐经历比1980年代末更糟糕的崩盘。

外国市场表现将胜过美国

然而麦嘉华预期,最终美国经济将会失速、财政赤次将扩大,迫使特朗普“恳求特朗普推出QE4”,导致美元回软及贵金属行情飙高。

此外,麦嘉华说:“如果在当前环境下仍想投资,如同我的资产里总涵盖部分股票,那么我认为其他市场会比美国更有吸引力……外国市场表现将胜过美国,就算两者同时走跌,美国也将跌更深。”他指出,2017年阿根廷、巴西与新兴市场ETF(指数股票型基金)的表现,已经超越S&P 500指数。

麦嘉华也表示,在美国资产中基本上他只爱黄金相关股票、白银和铂金。今年来金价已涨3%,金矿商股价也跟着涨逾8%。

新闻来源:苹果日报

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2017, 06:54:49 PM »



‘Dr Doom’ Marc Faber says US assets set to suffer long term from Trump’s travel ban
Karen Gilchrist, Digital Reporter
2 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Sebnem Coskun | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
U.S. assets are set to suffer in the long run as investors consider the "psychological" impacts of President Donald Trump's travel ban, Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, has told CNBC.

"Anyone with any brains" who was previously dovish about U.S. assets will now reconsider the U.S. as a safe haven under new fears that Trump's protectionist policies could see them lose access, Faber said Monday.

Trump's contentious new policy imposes a 90-day ban on entrance into the U.S. for individuals from seven Muslim-majority countries. He strongly defended his move on Sunday, saying that that while America was "a proud nation" of immigrants, his order was strictly about national security and not religion.


    Travel ban may have very negative impact on USD long-term: Faber 
4 Hours Ago | 03:12
But, according to Faber - who is often known as "Dr. Doom" for his usually pessimistic views - the repercussions are likely to be long term.

"I think this travel ban, psychologically, will have a very negative impact in the long run on the U.S. dollar and U.S. assets."

Faber referred to the U.S.'s large trade and current account deficits and said that going forward investors are likely to look less favorably on the U.S. which has hereto experienced a market rally since Trump's election in November. On Wednesday, the Dow Jones broke 20,000 for the first time.

Calling 2017 "the year of disappointments", Faber is countering market consensus and said that investors should be short U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks and long emerging markets.

"As we go into 2017, the consensus is that inflation will go up … And you want to be overweight U.S. stocks … but protectionism, I guarantee you, is not going to be good for the U.S."

-CNBC's Javier David contributed to this report.

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2017, 01:17:59 PM »



When selling starts in markets, it'll trigger an 'avalanche', Marc Faber says
Stephanie Landsman   | @stephlandsman
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 Stock market rally is overextended: Marc Faber   Stock market rally is overextended: Marc Faber 
Friday, 24 Feb 2017 | 12:16 PM ET | 01:53

01:53Stock market rally is overextended: Marc Faber
Stock market rally is overextended: Marc Faber 
02/24/17 12:16 PM ET
01:35Marc Faber warns investors an ‘avalanche’ could be coming
Marc Faber warns investors an ‘avalanche’ could be coming 
02/24/17 12:08 PM ET
02:27China looks ‘quite attractive’ right now: Marc Faber
China looks ‘quite attractive’ right now: Marc Faber 
02/24/17 12:19 PM ET

The man often hailed as the original 'Dr. Doom' is warning investors that the U.S. stock market is vulnerable to a seismic sell-off—one that could start any time in a very unassuming way.

Marc Faber, the editor of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," predicted the rally's disruption won't be caused by any single catalyst. His argument: Stocks are very overbought and sentiment is way too bullish for the so-called Trump rally to continue.

"Very simply, the market starts to go down. As it goes down, it will start triggering selling, and then it will be like an avalanche," said Faber recently on "Futures Now." "I would underweight U.S. stocks."

Faber, a supporter of President Donald Trump, isn't blaming the new administration for his bearish forecast.

"One man alone, he cannot make 'America great again.' That you have to realize," he said. "Trump, unlike Mr. Reagan, is facing huge, huge headwinds — including a debt to GDP that is gigantic, as it is in other countries."

Faber lists interest rates going up, as well as earnings and margins at record levels, as additional risks to the historic rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average registered its eleventh record close in a row on Friday. And, if you take a look at just the S&P 500 in February, it's on track to see the fewest declines in any month since May 1990.

It's not just the U.S. market that's been picking up big gains so far this year, however. Faber points out markets in Mexico, Brazil and Asia have been up ten percent or more.

But he's not predicting gloom and doom for all countries which have been benefiting from a strong run.

There are areas overseas which are in much better shape than the United States, according to the notoriously bearish investor.

"China looks quite attractive," said Faber. "For the next three months, money can flow into China. The economy, surprisingly, has begun to do quite well. We see that in retail in Hong Kong. We see that in the hotel industry, and we see that in the demand for commodities."

According to Faber, resource commodities such as copper and gold could also give investors solid profits this year.

"When you look at Trump and his administration, and the way the budget is, I think further money printing down the line is inevitable," he said — a policy which would could lift commodities even higher.

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2017, 08:36:43 PM »



2017-02-27 16:27
麦嘉华:美股或雪崩
“末日博士”麦嘉华警告投资者,美国股市可能爆发地震般的抛售,可能在任何时间以一种并不十分引入注目的方式开始。

(图:法新社)
(美国.纽约27日讯)“末日博士”麦嘉华(Marc Faber)警告投资者,美国股市可能爆发地震般的抛售,可能在任何时间以一种并不十分引入注目的方式开始。

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麦嘉华出席CNBC节目时表示,美股已严重超买,市场情绪过于乐观,所谓的“特朗普涨势”不可能持续,而造成涨势中断的可能不是任何单一因素。

“很简单,市场开始下跌。随着市场下跌,开始引发抛售,然后将像雪崩一般不可收拾。”他将减持美股。

他表示,特朗普不像里根总统,他正面临巨大的阻力,包括债务占GDP比重过高问题。此外,利率上升、以及创纪录水平的企业盈利和利润率,也对美股这轮历史性的上涨构成风险。

他指出,当你看到特朗普和他的新政府,以及美国预算情况时,认为进一步的印钞是不可避免的,而这一政策可能推动大宗商品进一步上涨。

中国方面,麦嘉华表示,中国看起来似乎很有吸引力。未来三个月,资金可能流进中国。

中国经济表现出人意料地十分良好。从香港零售业,酒店行业的表现及大宗商品需求中都能看到这一点。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2017.02.27

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #8 on: March 03, 2017, 12:51:32 PM »



Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber says the 'very complacent' market could go down for these 3 reasons
Elizabeth Gurdus   | @elizabethgurdus
10 Hours Ago
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 Faber: An avalanche of selling is coming   An avalanche of selling is coming: Faber 
11 Hours Ago | 03:56
The "very complacent" market is discounting three critical trends that could ultimately lead to a correction, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC on Thursday.

The man also known as "Dr. Doom" said on "Fast Money Halftime Report" that foreign currencies, the U.S. economy and the Trump administration could all contribute to a significant dip.

Faber said the stability of the U.S. economy relative to foreign nations' economies has attracted capital to the United States, boosting the dollar and stock prices. But the trend could reverse, he said.

"I believe the time will come when the weakness of the euro becomes uncomfortable for the Europeans, specifically the Germans, and then there will be a reverse," Faber said. "And the dollar will go down, and the money that flowed into U.S. assets will flow out of U.S. assets, and so the market is more likely to go down."

And, while the U.S. economy looks strong relative to other countries', Faber contended that it is still quite weak based on indicators like tax receipts, car sales and personal consumption levels.

 Faber: Underweight US stocks   Faber: Underweight US stocks 
11 Hours Ago | 05:18
"I believe also the policies of Mr. Trump will actually not reduce the government," Faber continued, suggesting that the commissions President Donald Trump sets up to restructure government agencies will actually go against traditional Republican ideals.

"Plus, fiscal spending means essentially an expansion of the government, so that is not pro-growth in my book," Faber added.

And, while Dr. Doom did not shed light on the timing or financial impact of a potential correction, he said that he will share in the effects.

"We have roughly inflated asset markets. I also own shares, I also own bonds, and I also own precious metals. I also own real estate. So if asset prices go down, I suffer like you and everybody else," he said. "But at least I know that it can happen."

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2017, 07:57:10 AM »



PermaBear Growls again

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2017, 09:11:20 PM »
Our 3i .... a DR BLOOM now ?  :D :D :D

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2017, 08:31:34 AM »




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It’s going to end ‘extremely badly,’ with stocks set to plummet 40% or more, warns Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber
Marc Faber, the editor of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report,' isn't backing down from a dire prediction that would send stocks free-falling by 40 percent or more.
He argues the stock market could see another "lurch" higher, but then investors may want to run for cover.
Stephanie Landsman   | @stephlandsman
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 Why Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber sees an 'epic' decline ahead   Why Marc 'Dr. Doom' Faber sees an 'epic' decline ahead 
Friday, 23 Jun 2017 | 4:46 PM ET | 01:33
If the man often hailed as the original "Dr. Doom" is right, the stock market could see another "lurch" higher — at which point investors may want to cash out quickly and run for cover.

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Marc Faber, the editor of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report' and a perennial bear, isn't backing down from his latest dire prediction that would send stocks plummeting by 40 percent or more.

A drop of that size could take the S&P 500 Index down from Friday's closing price of 2,438 to 1,463.

He used the meteoric rise of FANG stocks, which reflects Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google (Alphabet), as a glaring bearish signal.

"We've had more than eight years of a bull market. The Nasdaq is being driven by very few stocks," said Faber on Friday's "Trading Nation." That rally "is not a particularly healthy sign from a technical point of view, and valuations are very high," the investor added.

Faber's comments come exactly two weeks after the Nasdaq set its latest intraday record high of 6,341.70.

"You know we have a lot of volatility, and when things will start to go down, they'll go down a lot," he said.

Faber is deeply concerned that wealth has flowed to big corporations and affluent people. He believes the imbalance could eventually disrupt the markets as we know it.

"Either people with money will be taxed heavily ... or we'll have a massive deflation in asset prices — I repeat: massive," he warned. "Eventually the system will break."

Faber is known for correction calls over the years which have never materialized. But he's sticking by his latest call, acknowledging critics have "questioned my sanity."

"We could print enough money that the Dow goes to 100,000. All I'm saying is it will end very badly, extremely badly," he said.

But it's not all gloom. Faber notes it could also give investors a rare "out-sized" buying opportunity similar to 2003 and 2009, when deep corrections gave traders a chance to load up on cheap assets.

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Re: MARC FABER
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2017, 08:31:34 AM »