Author Topic: Gold predictions  (Read 3936 times)

Offline Ina amran

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Gold predictions
« on: September 23, 2016, 07:26:48 PM »
What is prediction on gold Prices short term 3-4 months?

BUY or SELL any advice?

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2017, 10:39:37 AM »
US Dollar finds support near 200-day SMA ~ 28 Mar 2017
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-finds-support-near-200-day-sma-201703271436



The US dollar index (DXY) is down by about 3% since the start of 2017.



Dollar hits four-month low as Trump trade deflates ~ 27 Mar 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-forex-idUSKBN16X135
The dollar rose more than 3% against the South African rand after the country's Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan was asked by President Jacob Zuma to return early from an investor roadshow abroad, prompting worries of a looming cabinet reshuffle.

Gold prices end at highest level in a month ~ 27 Mar 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-rises-to-highest-level-in-a-month-after-gop-health-bill-flops-2017-03-27
Gold prices typically rise when the U.S. dollar falls. Investors seek safety plays after political setback. Gold should see prices climb to US$1,300.

Price of Gold – Fundamental Forecast ~ 27 Mar 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/price-gold-fundamental-forecast-week-march-27-2017-397444
Weakness in the U.S. Dollar helped support the market after gold prices traded lower early in the week. Holding above a key technical support area at $1241.40 to $1233.10 also gave gold an upside bias.’



Gold prices rise as AHCA failure cools Fed rate hike outlook ~ 27 Mar 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2017/03/27/Gold-Prices-Rise-as-AHCA-Failure-Cools-Fed-Rate-Hike-Outlook.html
  • Gold prices rise to monthly high after US healthcare reform bill fail
  • Crude oil prices pressured lower but clear breakdown remains elusive
  • Brent speculative positioning data, Fed-speak in the spotlight ahead
Gold prices are back on the offensive. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1248.58 exposes the 1263.87-65.23 area (February 27 high, 50% level). Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fibonacci at 1227.99 paves the way for a retest of the 14.6% level at 1215.29.



Artificial paper markets and real gold ~ 27 Mar 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLK8mrJb2L8

Elliott Wave analysis of gold, silver and GDX ~ 25 Mar 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jikqVbvOZI

Stocks and precious metals charts ~ 24 Mar 2017
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-stocks-and-precious-metals-charts-.aspx?article=10634960534H11690



Big week ahead for April gold futures ~ 24 Mar 2017
http://www.insidefutures.com/article/1923078/The%20Weekly%20Gold%20Digger!.html
With April Gold trading at $1245 ahead of Tuesday’s (3/28) options expiration and next week’s April/June contract roll, major resistance comes in at $1270-$1275. This level represents a trend line dating back to last July and has served as an iron beam of resistance of which the bull camp has been unable to breach. A rally to $1275 ahead of Tuesday’s option expiration would also substantially increase the percentage of current ITM April calls, compared to gold trading at its current level of $1245. Gold will struggle to surge higher in the very near term against a crucial technical level that coincides with a relatively large options expiration.

Post-Fed gold price climb sparks mining stocks rally ~ 23 Mar 2017
http://www.mining.com/post-fed-gold-price-climb-sparks-mining-stocks-rally/



Spot gold to test resistance at $1,229 ~ 16 Mar 2017
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/spot-gold-to-test-resistance-at-1229/articleshow/57661556.cms
Spot gold is expected to test a resistance at $1,229 per ounce, a break above which could lead to a gain to the next resistance at $1,237. These resistances are identified respectively as the 50% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracements of the downtrend from the Feb. 27 high of $1,263.80 to the March 10 low of $1,194.55. Strengthening the resistance at $1,229 is the one at $1,230, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend from the Dec. 15, 2016 low of $1,122.35 to $1,263.80. As a result, gold may start a correction once it climbs to $1,229. Support is at $1,221, a break below which could cause a loss to $1,211.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2017, 09:27:40 AM »
Gold investment seen rising for 4th year in 2017 - CPM ~ 28 Mar 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/gold-investment-cpm-group-idUSL2N1H41E0

Top 10 USDollar risks ~ 27 Mar 2017
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1490644800.php

Gold market charts – March 2017 ~ 27 Mar 2017
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1490624113.php

Year-to-date, withdrawals of gold from the Shanghai gold bourse have now reached 363 tonnes, which on an annualised basis would be nearly 2,200 tonnes. This would equate to about 70% of annual global gold mining supply.



According to its official reporting line, the Bank of Russia now holds 1,655 tonnes (53,200,000 ozs) of gold.



It’s only a matter of time before China has the biggest gold pile in the world ~ 16 Feb 2017
http://moneyweek.com/money-morning-china-gold-pile/



Investors are pouring into gold ~ 3 Feb 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-02/gold-bulls-emboldened-as-fed-grapples-with-trump-uncertainty
  • Investors pour into SPDR Gold after four monthly outflows
  • Most actively traded options bet on higher bullion prices


https://www.statista.com/statistics/267998/countries-with-the-largest-gold-reserves/

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2017, 07:40:09 AM »
Larry Berman: Assessing the French election risk ~ 3 Apr 2017
http://www.bnn.ca/larry-berman-assessing-the-french-election-risk-1.713699
The first round of the French election is on April 23. If no one wins 50% of the vote, the top two move to the second round on May 7.

'European Spring' to catapult gold prices ~ 3 Apr 2017
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4059818-european-spring-catapult-gold-prices
  • Gold is one of few “flight to safety” safe havens in times of extreme political volatility.
  • Geopolitical changes are in full-swing that will powerfully impact world markets in the upcoming weeks, not months, as surging European nationalist candidates provoke political and economic uncertainty.
  • Game-changing Turkish referendum and French elections take place one week apart.
  • Nationalist leaders are born disruptors and their victories guarantee radical changes.
Gold logs second straight gain as U.S. ISM data disappoint ~ 3 Apr 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-ticks-lower-trading-in-the-red-for-4-of-past-5-sessions-2017-04-03



Manufacturing in U.S. kept expanding at robust pace in March ~ 3 Apr 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-03/manufacturing-in-u-s-keeps-expanding-at-robust-pace-in-march
  • ISM’s diffusion index eased to 57.2 (matching median forecast) from February’s 57.7, which was the highest since August 2014; readings above 50 indicate growth
  • Measure of orders cooled to 64.5 in March from 65.1
  • Factory employment gauge climbed to 58.9, the strongest reading since June 2011, from 54.2
  • Prices-paid index increased to 70.5, the highest since May 2011, from 68


How do a nation’s gold reserves affect its economy? ~ 27 Mar 2017
http://www.commoditytrademantra.com/gold-trading-news/how-do-a-nations-gold-reserves-affect-its-economy/

Venezuela learnt the lesson


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2017, 10:10:31 AM »
Gold prices trade below resistance @ US$1,260 ~ 5 Apr 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cross-market_technical_update/2017/04/05/Gold-Prices-Trade-Below-Resistance-Ahead-of-News-WEgsi.html



Gold prices rise as bond yields drop amid risk aversion ~ 4 Apr 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2017/04/04/Gold-Prices-Rise-as-Bond-Yields-Drop-Amid-Risk-Aversion.html



Gold prices to continue higher amid political uncertainty, Standard Chartered says

By Celia Chen
4 April, 2017

Gold prices could get an unexpected boost in the second quarter on the back of global uncertainties and rising demand in India.

Standard Chartered forecasts gold will rise to US$1,260 an ounce during the April to June period with investors looking to the yellow metal as a safe haven as negotiations get underway on Britain’s exit from the European Union and as closely watched elections take place in France on April 23 and May 7.

“Early Brexit negotiations and the French elections could boost prices, particularly given that markets do not expect a US rate hike in May and there is pent-up demand in India,” said Suki Cooper, executive director, precious metals research at Standard Chartered.

Standard Chartered expects the gold price rise to be short term, with bullion set to slide back to US$1,250 per ounce later in the year, although they acknowledged factors that could propel gold prices in an uptrending direction.

Cooper highlighted additional uncertainties, including the fallout from a protectionist Trump administration.

“Markets are complacent on political risk,” she said. “Positioning is relatively light, suggesting significant scope for fresh safe-haven flows amid a surprise event.”

Whereas rising interest rates are traditionally considered a headwind for gold, data shows that investors actually increased their long positions after the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its base rate by a quarter point in March. The impact of a further policy tightening by the Fed is unclear. The market currently assigns a 13 per cent probability to a rate hike in May, and a 54 per cent probability to a rate hike in June.

The gold price has risen about 8 per cent in the first quarter to US$1,250 an ounce.

Standard Chartered expects demand for gold will pick up in the coming weeks, driven by India ahead of an important religious festival on April 28.

Another factor to watch is how India will implement a Goods and Services Tax and which bracket jewellery falls into, said Cooper.

“Swiss shipments to India firmed month on month in February, underscoring the provisional data and anecdotal evidence suggesting India’s appetite for gold improved after the Union Budget,” Cooper said.

Gold one-month implied volatility has tumbled to 2005 lows and three-month implied volatility is at its lowest since July 2014. Gold implied volatility measures the change in the price of an asset with respect to variations in the price of its call option.

“The uptick in short interest suggests gold prices are likely to consolidate recent gains,” Cooper said.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2017, 02:03:19 PM »
Japanese yen, gold prices rise as US strikes Syria ~ 7 Apr 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2017/04/07/Japanese-Yen-Gold-Prices-Rise-as-US-Strikes-Syria.html



Gold prices rise as fears of stock market crash take hold ~ 6 Apr 2017
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/788752/Gold-prices-Dow-Jones-stock-market-crash-Trump-Fed

Schroders: Why now is the time to invest in gold ~ 31 Mar 2017
http://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/2553491-2553491/

What next for price of gold? ~ 31 Mar 2017
http://www.cityam.com/262119/next-price-gold


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #6 on: April 10, 2017, 01:38:11 PM »
Global gold prices rise 10% in first quarter ~ 10 Apr 2017
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/gold/1230076/global-gold-prices-rise-10-in-first-quarter
Immediate support @ US$1,200, immediate resistance @ US$1,272, next resistance @ US$1,286 to US$1300.

Bearish reversal in gold price and silver price ~ 8 Apr 2017
http://news.gold-eagle.com/article/bearish-reversal-gold-price-and-silver-price/577



Gold price at post-election high amid market unrest ~ 7 Apr 2017
http://www.theweek.co.uk/gold-price/61682/gold-price-at-post-election-high-amid-market-unrest
US air strikes on Syria and Donald Trump's summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping see metal reach $1,264.



Gold prices dip on profit-taking, firm U.S. dollar ~ 6 Apr 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/global-precious-idUSL3N1HE30N
Spot gold hit $1,261.15 on Tuesday, its highest since Feb. 27, but has failed to breach a key 200-day moving average of $1,258.

The US owes the world 3x the gold ever produced ~ 30 Mar 2017
https://goldswitzerland.com/the-us-owes-the-world-3x-the-gold-ever-produced/
The US owes the world 453,000 tonnes of gold which is almost 3 times all the gold ever produced in history.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2017, 07:41:40 AM »
Gold prices settle at highest level since November ~ 11 Apr 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-settle-at-highest-level-since-november-2017-04-11
Gold closed at $1,274.20 (+$20.30, +1.6%) an ounce.

Markets get a whiff of volatility and recoil ~ 11 Apr 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-11/the-daily-prophet-markets-get-a-whiff-of-volatility-and-recoil


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2017, 03:46:50 PM »
Gold price soars on global unrest ~ 12 Apr 2017
http://www.fool.com.au/2017/04/12/gold-price-soars-on-global-unrest/
At the time of writing, one ounce of gold was fetching US$1,275, up from around US$1,257 yesterday afternoon, representing a climb of more than 1.4%.

Gold soars to 5 months high: investors resort to safe haven assets ~ 12 Apr 2017
http://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/gold-prices-gold-soars-to-5-months-high-investors-resort-to-safe-haven-assets-117041200756_1.html

Gold price surge may falter as US, Russia weigh Syria and Ukraine ~ 12 Apr 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2017/04/12/Gold-Price-Surge-May-Falter-as-US-Russia-Weigh-Syria-and-Ukraine.html

Gold prices broke trend line resistance guiding the move lower since July 2016, hinting a significant change of direction is at hand. From here, a daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1282.31 opens the door for a test of the 1302.90-08.00 area (76.4% level, former support). Alternatively, a reversal below the February 27 high at 1263.87 exposes the 1241.50-49.01 region (chart inflection point, 38.2% Fib).


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2017, 08:23:26 AM »
Gold price forecast unclear as sentiment shifts ~ 13 Apr 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/xauusd/2017/04/12/ssi_xau-usd.html
Retail trader data shows 72.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.69 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.1% lower than yesterday and 10.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.2% lower than yesterday and 13.6% lower from last week.



Oil, gold futures uptick continues as traders increase risk-influenced punts ~ 12 Apr 2017
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/oil-gold-futures-uptick-continues-traders-increase-risk-influenced-punts-1616761
From a technical standpoint, previous resistance at $1,260, the 200d SMA could transform into a dynamic support that opens a path towards $1,280 and potentially higher.

Gold ends at highest level since early November as geopolitical jitters linger ~ 12 Apr 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/haven-demand-lifts-gold-to-5-month-high-2017-04-12


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2017, 08:32:59 AM »
Gold price @ US$1294.21 (+8.31, +0.65%) ~ 17 Apr 2017 0815 hrs



Gold prices higher in Asia with Korean tensions, China GDP eyed ~ 16 Apr 2017
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-prices-higher-in-asia-with-korean-tensions,-china-gdp-eyed-474558

Dollar extends lower; don’t expect June hike after Retail, CPI ~ 16 Apr 2017
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/dollar-extends-lower;-don%E2%80%99t-expect-june-hike-after-retail,-cpi-200182976

Gold Prices Weekly Forecast: April 17-21
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/04/15/gold-prices-weekly-forecast-april-17-21/
  • June gold futures rose $10.40, or 0.8%, to $1,288.50 a troy ounce on Friday, the highest since the U.S. presidential election. The futures price climbed 2.5% during the week, reaffirming the bullish outlook on bullion.
  • Gold prices were also supported last week by a sliding U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six other major currencies, fell 0.7% during the week.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2017, 10:10:51 AM »
Local investors going for gold ~ 18 Apr 2017
http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3032353



Gold net longs hit 5-month high – CFTC ~ 17 Apr 2017
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-net-longs-hit-5-month-high-cftc-201704170556
Speculative net long positioning in gold rose sharply last week, registering an increase for the fourth consecutive week.

Gold could 'sky-rocket' on global worries ~ 17 Apr 2017
http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/gold-could-skyrocket-on-global-worries-20170417-gvmflj.html
Bullion is up 13% this year as investors seek a haven partly because of the unpredictability of President Donald Trump's political and economic policies.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2017, 01:03:25 PM »
Gold down as risk assets continue to rally ~ 25 Apr 2017
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2017/04/25/gold-down-as-risk-assets-continue-to-rall
June Comex gold was last down $11.80 an ounce at $1,265.70.

Gold price is 1% shy of ripping higher ~ 25 Apr 2017
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article58857.html
With the first round of the French elections over and a potential beginning of the end for the Eurozone might be within sight, this is only one of the macro-political events that are causing gold prices to be within 1% of shuttering its 10-year resistance level.





How geopolitics could make Singapore the most important gold market ~ 24 Apr 2017
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4064698-geopolitics-make-singapore-important-gold-market


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2017, 06:29:03 PM »
Gold forecast for the week of May 1, 2017, Technical Analysis ~  28 Apr 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-forecast-week-may-1-2017-technical-analysis-404344



Price of Gold – Fundamental Forecast ~ 28 Apr 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/price-gold-fundamental-forecast-april-28-2017-404151



Bank of England releases new data on its gold vault holdings ~ 28 Apr 2017
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1493405122.php



Is a new golden age breaking? ~ 21 Apr 2017
http://www.finews.asia/finance/24430-gold-dan-steinbock-russia-north-korea-china-syria-precious-metal



Gold isn’t behaving in practice the way it should in theory ~ 20 Feb 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/gold-isn-t-doing-in-practice-what-it-should-in-theory-yet-again
  • In a counterintuitive move, metal is advancing as Fed tightens
  • ETF investors have turned buyers as January rally lingers on

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2017, 08:33:39 AM »
Gold prices stage another bearish break: Watch $1,250 ~ 2 May 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2017/05/01/gold-prices-stage-bearish-break-srepstans.html



China's gold consumption up in Q1 ~ 1 May 2017
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/27/c_136240185.htm
China's actual gold consumption rose 14.73% to 304.14 tonnes in the first quarter of 2017 due to steady gold ornament sales and strong sales of gold bars.

Gold bullion imports into China via Hong Kong more than doubles in March ~ 26 Apr 2017
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1493208060.php


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2017, 08:20:08 AM »
Gold prices build bullish channel, rally to deeper resistance ~ 16 May 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2017/05/15/gold-prices-build-bullish-channel-srepstans.html



Gold prices have continued to march-higher on the chart, running in a fairly consistent trend channel as bulls have tip-toed into the market with a bit more motivation.



Gold, crude oil rally but data mixed ~ 15 May 2017
https://www.seeitmarket.com/the-cot-report-gold-crude-oil-rally-but-data-mixed-16864/



China gold demand holding up well, may even be better still ~ 12 May 2017
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/china-gold-demand-holding-up-well-may-even-be-better-still-201705121542

U.S. gold exports to China and India surge in 2017 ~ 11 May 2017
http://www.maxkeiser.com/2017/05/u-s-gold-exports-to-china-and-india-surge-in-2017/
Gold exports from U.S. – Something big is happening



China’s private investor gold surge seen as strong signal ~ 10 May 2017
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/chinas-private-investor-gold-demand-surge-seen-as-strong-signal-2017-05-10/rep_id:3650

Will gold history repeat itself? ~ 10 May 2017
http://www.thehartfordgoldgroup.com/buy-gold/will-gold-history-repeat/

Comex Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – May 9, 2017 Forecast
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/comex-gold-price-futures-gc-technical-analysis-may-9-2017-forecast-406496
  • The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The market is not in a position to change the trend to up, but we could see more consolidation as it tries to establish a bona fide bottom. Taking out yesterday’s high at $1236.90 should trigger a strong short-covering rally, but not a change in trend.
  • On the downside, the next major target is the main bottom at $1198.00. On the upside, the first resistance is the Fibonacci level at $1236.00, followed by the 50% level at $1247.70.
  • Look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over $1233.40 and a bearish tone on a sustained move under $1208.20.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #16 on: May 17, 2017, 10:24:50 PM »
Gold prices surge as Trump turmoil deepens ~ 17 May 2017
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/05/17/gold-prices-jump-on-spike-in-risk-aversion-trump-response-in-focus/


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2017, 12:55:25 PM »
Gold prices rebound as US dollar weakens ~ 17 May 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cross-market_technical_update/2017/05/17/Gold-Prices-Rebound-as-US-Dollar-Weakens-WEgsi.html
Gold prices jump above the 200-day moving average @ US$1,233.



Gold price, 30 minute chart and pivots



Gold prices jump over 200-DMA as Trump-Comey 'nears impeachment', T-Bond yields fall with dollar ~ 16 May 2017
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-051720171


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2017, 12:19:38 PM »
Spot Gold @ US$1,258.32 (+5.92, +0.47%) on 25 May 2017 at 1200 hrs.



Gold Price Forecast May 25, 2017, Technical Analysis ~ 25 May 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-forecast-may-25-2017-technical-analysis-410000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJRfqHDXvpk
  • A break below the $1245 level could send gold prices to hit lower to the longer-term support level at $1235.
  • A break above the $1255 level could send gold prices to hit above the $1263 level.


Gold price forecast to rally further on trader sentiment ~ 24 May 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/xauusd/2017/05/24/ssi_xau-usd.html?DFXfeeds=forex:technical:ssi:xauusd
Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 77.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.44 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.9% lower than yesterday and 18.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.8% lower than yesterday and 33.1% higher from last week.





Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #19 on: May 28, 2017, 05:47:09 AM »
Spot gold closed @ US$1,266.75 (+10.95, +0.87%) on 26 May 2017



Gold Price Prediction for May 26, 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-prediction-may-26-2017-410223
Support at US$1,249, resistance at US$1,265. 




Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #20 on: June 05, 2017, 08:33:40 AM »
Spot gold @ US$1,280.79 (+3.99, +0.31%) on 4 Jun 2017 at 2010 hrs



Gold Price Prediction for June 5, 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-price-prediction-june-5-2017-411965
Gold prices resistance level @ US$1,295.  Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at US$1,263.



Gold price jumps after weak US payrolls ~ 2 Jun 2017
http://www.mining.com/gold-price-jumps-weak-us-payrolls/
On Friday, the reaction on gold markets was swift in response to a soft US jobs report and a weaker US dollar, with the metal jumping $20 an ounce to a near 6-week high. Gold futures in New York for delivery in August, the most active contract, touched a high of $1,281.80 in heavy volume of more than 24m ounces, up from $1,261.30 before the non-farm payroll numbers data was released. Gold is up 11.3% so far in 2017.



Gold price rally likely to continue until this changes ~ 30 May 2017
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/gold-price-rally-likely-to-continue-until-this-changes-cm796326



The dollar drops to 7-month low after the jobs report whiffs ~ 2 Jun 2017
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-drops-jobs-report-whiffs-130600897.html
In late trading, the dollar index fell to a 7-month low and was last down 0.5% at 96.725.



US Dollar Index upside capped by 23.6% fibo, good to sell on rallies ~ 31 May 2017
http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-US-Dollar-Index-upside-capped-by-236-fibo-good-to-sell-on-rallies-735541



Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2017, 07:11:48 AM »
Dollar hits 6-week low vs yen ahead of UK vote, Comey testimony and ECB outcome ~ 6 Jun 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex-idUSL3N1J31RO
  • Dollar/yen slips below 110.00, dollar index hits 7-mth low
  • Caution begins to mount ahead of UK elections, Comey testimony
  • RBA stands pat on rates as expected, Aussie pares losses

Europe close: Gold moves towards November highs amid investor caution ~ 6 Jun 2017
http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/market-reports/market-reports/europe-close-gold-moves-towards-november-highs-amid-investor-caution

Spot gold @ US$1,294 (+14.70, +1.15%) on 6 Jun 2017 at 1852 hrs


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2017, 04:48:48 PM »
Gold prices prediction for June 8, 2017 ~ 8 Jun 2017
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-prices-prediction-june-8-2017-412949
Support at US$1,272.  Resistance at US$1,296.



Gold prices break 6-year-long downtrend on safe haven and 50% surge in Chinese demand ~ 7 Jun 2017
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1496843970.php

Gold jumped more than 1% yesterday on concerns of conflict in the Middle East after the Saudi coalitions aggressive move against gas rich Qatar and Iran. Today there have been terrorist attacks in the Iranian parliament and at least seven people have been killed.



China's gold imports seen jumping 50% as haven demand booms ~ 6 Jun 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-06/china-s-gold-imports-seen-surging-50-as-investors-seek-haven
  • Purchases from Hong Kong may rise to highest level since ’13
  • ‘I think we’re going to have a good year,’ says CGSE’s heung

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #23 on: August 02, 2017, 07:11:14 AM »
What a US$ rebound means for gold ~ 1 Aug 2017
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1501608772.php


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2017, 07:08:32 AM »
Gold surges above US$1,300 as dollar falls to 16-month low ~ 29 Aug 2017
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-surges-above-1300-as-dollar-falls-to-16month-low-523135



Gold surges to finish above US$1,300/ounce for the first time since November

29 August 2017

Gold futures closed above US$1,300 an ounce for the first time since November as the dollar dropped and speculation mounted that policy makers will be slow to raise US interest rates.

Futures for delivery in December rose 1.3 per cent to settle at US$1,315.30 on the Comex in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1 per cent. While gold has risen above US$1,300 in intraday trading this year, it had not managed to close above that threshold since November.

Bullion has rallied 14 per cent this year as investors bet the Fed will be hard-pressed to follow up with additional US interest-rate increases given lacklustre inflation. The dollar fell on Monday as traders weighed the damage from Tropical Storm Harvey in Houston, boosting demand for gold as an alternative asset.

Last week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said prices are on track to hit US$1,400 an ounce by early next year on lower long-term US rates and a lack of progress by President Donald Trump in delivering his agenda.

“The Fed may be a little bit more cautious in their stance on raising interest rates for the remainder of the year,” Phil Streible, senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago, said by phone. “There are a lot of uncertainties out there.”

Metals, he added, have a lot of “momentum behind them.”

Investors waiting for clues about the Fed’s tightening path during the gathering last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, were disappointed. Monetary policy wasn’t a major focus, and when it was discussed the messages from the Fed and the European Central Bank stressed gradual approaches to unwinding emergency-era stimulus as growth picks up. Low rates are a boon to non-interest bearing precious metals.

“Traders are going to focus on the momentum which would primarily be driven by the dollar weakness,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK, said by email.

Hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio endorsed gold this month, recommending investors consider placing 5 per cent to 10 per cent of their assets in the commodity.

Dalio, who manages Bridgewater Associates, cited risks including the North Korean situation, as well as the possibility that Congress may fail to increase the US debt ceiling, leading to a technical default.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #25 on: September 02, 2017, 12:44:14 PM »
Gold price 'surge' to US$1320 attracts institutional investors as US debt ceiling deadline looms ~ 1 Sep 2017
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-prices-090120172



Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #26 on: October 15, 2017, 08:14:31 AM »
Exclusive Gold Price Update ~ 14 Oct 2017
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/exclusive-gold-price-update
Gold sector is on major buy signal since early 2016.


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #27 on: October 15, 2017, 10:32:28 AM »
Exclusive Gold Price Update ~ 14 Oct 2017
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/exclusive-gold-price-update
Gold sector is on major buy signal since early 2016.



Germans have quietly become the world's biggest buyers of gold ~ 11 Oct 2017
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/10/11/germans-have-quietly-become-the-worlds-biggest-buyers-of-gold/



China will 'compel' Saudi Arabia to trade oil in yuan — and that's going to affect the US dollar ~ 11 Oct 2017
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/11/china-will-compel-saudi-arabia-to-trade-oil-in-yuan--and-thats-going-to-affect-the-us-dollar.html

The gold worm on the yuan hook ~ 9 Oct 2017
http://www.gold-prices.biz/home/the-gold-worm-on-the-yuan-hook.html
  • For the first time in 46 years – ever since that fateful date, August 15th, 1971, when Nixon took the US “off gold” – gold is once again mentioned as part of a commercial deal – and one of great importance.
  • If the US cannot stop China from implementing its “oil – for yuan – for gold” program, then the fate of the US is at hand.
  • As gold commences a historic rise, the dollar will suffer a historic decline in acceptability, because higher gold means a lower dollar – more dollars will be needed to purchase gold.
China has 12,100 tonnes of proven gold reserves ~ 2 Oct 2017
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-10/02/c_136654665.htm

The waning power of the petrodollar ~ 13 Jul 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-bonds-petrodollars/commentary-the-waning-power-of-the-petrodollar-idUKKBN19Y15H



Beijing wins a yuan battle, but will it lose the global currency war?

China’s surging yuan defeats short-sellers by hitting a 6-month high versus the US dollar as the dust settles after Moody’s credit downgrade

By Wendy Wu
2 Jun 2017

The corks should be popping on bottles of champagne at the People’s Bank of China, if Beijing’s policy goal was to defeat investors who dared to bet on a cheaper yuan after Moody’s recent downgrade of China’s sovereign credit rating.

If any speculative forces were attempting to short the yuan, the currency did indeed put them in their place by surging to a six-month high against the US dollar in the Hong Kong offshore market, aided by a behind-the-scenes push from China’s central bank. The Hong Kong offshore market is said to be more sensitive to market forces than its onshore counterpart.

As a result, the overnight yuan interbank borrowing rate has shot up to 42.8 per cent, an unhealthy sign for the yuan market. Beijing’s meddling in the yuan exchange rate also sends a signal that China is moving away from a promised “clean” floating exchange rate system.

“It is important to remember that China’s exchange rate is still fully in the hands of PBOC,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics research with Oxford Economics and a former economist with the World Bank. “At any point in time, the PBOC decides to what extent it wants to take market pressures into account as it sets the fixing rate and steers the spot rate. In that sense, China’s exchange rate is a solidly dirty float.”

Meanwhile, the yuan’s approximately 1 per cent appreciation in Hong Kong since May 25 and a 543 basis point upward change in the currency’s mid-point price on Thursday are just the latest examples of the Chinese government’s trend toward peddling back its liberalisation program - contradicting Beijing’s own strategic goal of making the yuan a global currency.

Since the International Monetary Fund included the yuan in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights currency basket in October, China has in many ways suspended, and peddled back, its pro-market reforms. In addition to strictly vetting outbound yuan flows and tightening capital account controls, last week a murky “counter cyclical factor” was adopted to decide the currency’s daily midpoint price, making the yuan mechanism even more complicated.

Zhang Ming, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in a research note that the counter cyclical factor “may make it more difficult for market players to anticipate exchange rate movement to reduce [the] transparency of [the] yuan pricing mechanism”.

While China has managed to prevent a big depreciation of the yuan against the US dollar, the Chinese currency’s use in global finance has been shrinking. The latest data from global payment system Swift showed that the yuan slipped to the seventh most actively traded currency in April, falling behind the Swiss franc. Its 1.6 per cent market share is far behind the dollar’s 42.1 per cent share.

And there’s nowhere better to display the harmful impact of Beijing’s rigid yuan policy than Hong Kong, the first and most important stop in China’s endeavour to take the yuan beyond the nation’s borders. Approximately a decade after the first yuan-denominated “dim sum bonds” were issued in Hong Kong, the market remains largely idle.

“Internationalisation of the yuan...is not a short-term policy target,” said Li Daokui, a Tsinghua University professor who served as an academic on the PBOC’s monetary policy committee from 2010 to 2012. “The most important thing for now is to ensure financial stability and to control liquidity.”

PBOC is engineering a strong yuan partly in response to the downgrade by Moody’s, the ratings agency’s first on China since 1989, and ahead of a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve in mid-June, analysts said.

“Beijing takes Moody’s downgrading seriously and it will put deleveraging at a priority policy,” said Zhou Hao, chief emerging markets economist at Commerzbank in Singapore. To clean up the domestic financial mess, China needs to create a stable external environment, he said.

“Authorities need to manage market sentiment on the yuan to avoid a sharp yuan depreciation...when they push forward the deleveraging,” Zhou said.

Zhao Yang, chief China economist with Nomura Securities in Hong Kong, said the yuan’s abrupt strengthening may have a political backdrop, namely trade talks with the administration of US President Donald Trump.

If the yuan weakens along with a weakening US dollar, it may give Washington an excuse to complain about China’s currency, said the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Zhang. Added Nomura’s Zhao: “China is facing huge challenges in June. It needs to avoid the depreciation pressure from being intensified and to ward of financial risks.”

To be sure, the yuan’s appreciation in the past few days may be due more to changing economic and market fundamentals than the whim of China’s central bank, some analysts argued.

Deng Haiqing, an economist with JZ Securities, a Chinese brokerage, wrote in a note that China’s domestic economic stabilisation and monetary tightening, along with curbed money outflows, may have put an end to “a depreciating trend of the yuan since 2014”.

Kuijs of Oxford Economics wrote in a note that the appreciation can be seen as “a delayed response” to the US dollar’s depreciation against other major currencies, earlier in May.

Top 10 countries with the largest gold reserves  ~ 18 Mar 2016
http://moneywithmanuel.info/top-10-countries-with-the-largest-gold-reserves/



How the price of gold reflects the value of the US dollar ~ 13 Nov 2013
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Fraser/2013-11-11-How-the-Price-of-Gold-Reflects-the-Value-of-the-US-Dollar.html


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2017, 10:51:16 AM »
Gold/Silver vs. Bitcoin Comparisons: A No-Brainer... or Brainless? ~ 19 Oct 2017
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-silver-vs-bitcoin-comparisons-a-no-brainer-or-brainless-201710192046


Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #29 on: January 23, 2018, 08:13:37 AM »


Gold remains remarkably resilient

By Jeremy Ng
15 January 2018

Since the December 2017 FOMC meeting, Gold price has been remarkably resilient despite the FED hiking Fed Funds Rates by 25 basis points to 1.50%. Instead of the widely expected sell-off, Gold rallied 7% with a similar bottoming price action pattern around the rate hike days, going back to the December 2015 rate hike.

First, let us examine the long-term trend for Gold. Since August 1999, the secular uptrend was set in motion. Gold experienced a raging bull run for the following 12 years where it all came to a screeching halt in September 2011. During the bull run, Gold price increased seven-fold from a low of $253 to a high of $1920.

A correction of 45% ensued after the $1920 record high was formed in 2011. Interesting, the bear market in Gold ended at a significant pivotal point as well. Using the August 1999 low and September 2011 high as the projection points for referencing our Fibonacci retracement levels, it highlighted an important level at $1088. The $1088 area was the 50% retracement level which in hindsight worked perfectly for halting the prolonged correction since 2011. This long-term Fibonacci retracement level has higher credibility because it has stood the test of time. The 50% retracement level is also one of the more important points for anticipating reversal as the uptrend regains control.

Gold did fall marginally below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($1088) in December 2015 to a low of $1046 shown by the highlighted area, but the bulls were ready to defend that key level. For the first half of 2016, Gold made strong advancement of up to 29% to a high of $1375, signalling a stable floor at around the long-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($1088) which we would not probably revisit anytime soon. Moreover, the firm bullish rejection off the $1088 area since December 2015 also coincided with the formation of the 8-year cycle making it a stronger bottoming point. Gold follows an 8-year cyclical bottom pattern where it forms a major bottom in between every eight years where it enters into an intense secular bull market. This has been true since 1985, and the pattern seems to be unfolding right in front of our eyes once again.

Relating back to current times, Gold is currently at a major crossroad to decide if the explosive bull run begins or not. With much consolidation since June 2013 where Gold price ranged between $1392 to $1131, a bullish reversal pattern was formed.

An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established after seeing a rally in 2017 as the formation of the right shoulder is completed. One can treat the bearish break below the $1131 range low in 2015 as a false breakout hence leading to the formation of the head to the inverted Head and Shoulders pattern. More importantly, for this bullish reversal formation to usher in more bullish momentum, the bulls need to break and close Gold price above the neckline (downtrend line) shown by the black line at $1350. As of now, price is testing that key area.

The longer the consolidation, the greater the move once the bullish breakout occurs. With Gold consolidating for the past four years, we can expect the rally to be forceful once it breaks out of the neckline. The target projection from the inverted Head and Shoulder pattern return a price target of $1700.

In summary, the long-term outlook for Gold remains solidly bullish as the 8–year cyclical bottom was firmly supported by the long-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1088. The only missing key now is for the buyers to break and closed above the neckline ($1350) convincingly on a monthly basis to kick-start the raging bull market in Gold. Our long-term target on Gold is $1700 based on the inverted Head and Shoulders pattern and $1920 based on the 8-year cyclical bottom pattern.

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #30 on: April 04, 2018, 07:08:25 AM »
The ONLY bullish commodity now is GOLD; other soft commodities and hard commodities prices are affected by the current trade war between U.S. (tariffs ~ a tax of 25% on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum) and China (tariffs on US imports on 128 products ranging from pork, meat and fruit to steel pipes. The  impact (+ve and -ve) of trade war on commodities prices is yet to be seen.

GLD US$ (O87.SI)
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/O87.SI

iShares Gold Trust (IAU)
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/quote/IAU

10 Gold ETFs: Is it time to go for gold? ~ 2 Apr 2018
https://www.etftrends.com/10-gold-etfs-time-for-gold/

The big picture for gold is bullish ~ 26 Dec 2017
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2017/12/26/the-big-picture-for-gold-is-bullish.html
Fed rate hikes push gold into bullish territory. The key level to note is $1400—a breakout above this level will signify that gold is leaving behind the base pattern to enter a new bull market phase.



国际黄金价格走势图: 1998至2002 ~ 10 Apr 2012
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTmnN4u4Y5k

圆底和圆顶形态
http://www.maofou.com/gpsj/gpczx/yuanding.htm
圆底和圆顶:股价进入整理期,多空短兵相接,力量的转变亦可能是渐进的,从图形看,从涨至跌,或从跌至涨均呈抛物线状,亦是弧形,我们将它称为圆顶或圆底。

圆底形态


圆顶形态

Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2018, 06:56:32 AM »
GOLD ~ The key level to note is $1400—a breakout above this level will signify that gold is leaving behind the base pattern to enter a new bull market phase.

Gold prices reverse after test of long term-resistance ~ 12 Apr 2018
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2018/04/11/gold-prices-reverse-after-test-of-long-term-resistance-srepstans.html
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html[/img]




Offline zuolun

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #32 on: May 08, 2018, 10:40:28 AM »
Gold is exhibiting an untidy uptrend and traders should be cautious ~ 30 Apr 2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/30/gold-price-is-showing-an-untidy-uptrend--commentary.html


Offline Zhorlok

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Re: Gold predictions
« Reply #33 on: January 22, 2019, 02:58:07 PM »
Year end finished in positive territory. Obviously the sell off on equities market had big influence on gold price increase and reversal of down trend. Certainly $1400 is next long term resistance level, but unsure if it will be reached during 2019