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SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« on: November 06, 2016, 04:53:24 PM »



David Stockman, the man widely credited as the "Father of Reaganomics", delivered an alarming message to investors.

Sell everything!
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"The markets are hideously inflated," warned Stockman on CNBC's "Fast Money" this week. The former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan urged investors to dump stocks and bonds ahead of the dangers that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton pose to markets if either is elected as President.

"If you don't sell before the election, certainly do it afterwards. Government is going to be totally paralyzed regardless of who wins," he said. "There could be a 25 percent draw down on markets."
Stockman posits that, under a Clinton administration, official investigations and new hacked email disclosures from Wikileaks will be non-stop. Furthermore, he reasoned that the "house will become a killing field" for anything Clinton is trying to do. Ultimately, Stockman said the Democrat would enter the Oval Office bruised, bloody and all but lacking in legitimacy.

"For six months, or even longer, there will acrimony, there will be brinkmanship, there will be paralysis. There will be a swarm of house committees doing investigations from all of these wiki leaks!" Stockman said of Clinton's hypothetical early days in the White House.

"Therefore, there will be no baton handed off from the Fed to fiscal policy as we slide into recession," he added.

Stockman, who spent twenty years on Wall Street with Salomon Brothers and Blackstone and served as a Congressman for Michigan, said the IRS is the government agency that is the clearest indicator that a storm is brewing over financial markets.

"The IRS said that last year revenue was up 1 percent and, in the last quarter, it was down 4 percent," explained Stockman. "And, in the five months since May, payroll withholding was barely keeping even with wage inflations. That means the work hours aren't happening."

From here, Stockman reasoned that with a paralyzed congress, a soon-to-expire debt ceiling, a powerless central bank and a market that's been flat for 700 days, that the pieces are in place for a crisis.

"We're in the same place today as we were in December of 2014," explained Stockman. "There's massive risk. So what's the possible reward?"

Indeed, the S&P 500 Index has gained just over 1 percent in nearly two years while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained just .70 percent.

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SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« on: November 06, 2016, 04:53:24 PM »

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2016, 05:18:58 PM »


David Stockman, the man widely credited as the "Father of Reaganomics", delivered an alarming message to investors.

Sell everything!
ADVERTISING

inRead invented by Teads

"The markets are hideously inflated," warned Stockman on CNBC's "Fast Money" this week. The former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan urged investors to dump stocks and bonds ahead of the dangers that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton pose to markets if either is elected as President.

"If you don't sell before the election, certainly do it afterwards. Government is going to be totally paralyzed regardless of who wins," he said. "There could be a 25 percent draw down on markets."
Stockman posits that, under a Clinton administration, official investigations and new hacked email disclosures from Wikileaks will be non-stop. Furthermore, he reasoned that the "house will become a killing field" for anything Clinton is trying to do. Ultimately, Stockman said the Democrat would enter the Oval Office bruised, bloody and all but lacking in legitimacy.

"For six months, or even longer, there will acrimony, there will be brinkmanship, there will be paralysis. There will be a swarm of house committees doing investigations from all of these wiki leaks!" Stockman said of Clinton's hypothetical early days in the White House.

"Therefore, there will be no baton handed off from the Fed to fiscal policy as we slide into recession," he added.

Stockman, who spent twenty years on Wall Street with Salomon Brothers and Blackstone and served as a Congressman for Michigan, said the IRS is the government agency that is the clearest indicator that a storm is brewing over financial markets.

"The IRS said that last year revenue was up 1 percent and, in the last quarter, it was down 4 percent," explained Stockman. "And, in the five months since May, payroll withholding was barely keeping even with wage inflations. That means the work hours aren't happening."

From here, Stockman reasoned that with a paralyzed congress, a soon-to-expire debt ceiling, a powerless central bank and a market that's been flat for 700 days, that the pieces are in place for a crisis.

"We're in the same place today as we were in December of 2014," explained Stockman. "There's massive risk. So what's the possible reward?"

Indeed, the S&P 500 Index has gained just over 1 percent in nearly two years while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained just .70 percent.

but we just caught one very very big sui yee , very very big

apa macaim , who is telling the truth
sometimes win sometimes lose
biasa lah

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2016, 05:43:30 AM »



Dow closed at new record high.

Another Expert got F by mkt.

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2016, 06:34:29 AM »



This is the greatest *' rally of all time: David Stockman
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 David Stockman   Stockman: I see a 'fiscal blood bath' ahead 
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The Trump rally raged on this week with all major U.S. indexes hitting record highs, but despite the historic run, David Stockman is doubling down on his call for investors to sell everything.

"This 5 percent eruption is meaningless. It's some robo machine trying to tag new highs," Stockman said Tuesday on CNBC's "Fast Money," in a dismissal of the S&P 500 rally.

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"I see a recession coming down the pike in 2017. The stock market is going to go down and it's going to stay down long and hard because, for the first time in 25 years, there's nothing to bail it out."

This echoed the initial call Stockman made Nov. 3, when he urged investors to sell stocks and bonds before the presidential election.

However, since the Nov. 8 election, the Dow Jones industrial average has gained 4 percent en route to surpassing 19,000. Additionally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs in the same time period, gaining 3 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

Yet Stockman, who was director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, reaffirmed that markets are heading for disaster.

"My call stands. Sell the stocks, sell the bonds, get out of the casino," Stockman explained to CNBC in an off-camera interview. "Bonds have already cratered by nearly $2 trillion worldwide and have miles to go. This isn't a rotation into stocks, either. It's the greatest *'s rally ever."

Stockman, author of "Trumped: A Nation on the Brink of Ruin... And How to Bring It Back," lamented that there will be no Trump stimulus or Reagan-style boom. He further added that he expects "an unprecedented fiscal bloodbath" resulting from the $20 trillion worth of debt that the U.S. currently has on the books.

"This isn't Ronald Reagan with a clean $1 trillion balance sheet and with a fluke GOP and a Southern Democratic coalition that only materialized because he got shot," Stockman said in reference to John Hinkley Jr. attempting to assassinate Reagan in Washington, D.C., in 1981. "Nor is it LBJ in 1965 with a thundering electoral mandate and a massive congressional majority for the Great Society."

On the contrary, Stockman, who initially predicted that Trump would win the election, added that Washington will be in chaos by June. This is because he anticipates ongoing disruptions from the tea party, which Stockman doesn't foresee as allowing additional deficit increases.

Furthermore, Stockman doesn't believe that Trump can pass a bipartisan stimulus plan without capitulating on his promise to repeal and replace Obamacare. Additionally, Stockman cast serious doubt over Trump's ability to enact a meaningful tax cut or to develop a major infrastructure program. If so, Stockman believes that could very well trigger a civil war within the Republican Party.

"So when the recession hits this summer, the Fed will be out of dry powder and fiscal policy will be paralyzed," concluded Stockman. "This time the market will crash and stay crashed."

Given this prediction, Stockman re-emphasized that gold and cash will be king and urged investors to shift their portfolios accordingly. He also recommend shorting the S&P 500 through ETFs such as the SH or the SDS.


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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2017, 07:17:35 PM »
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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2017, 06:51:14 AM »



Wall St. is misreading Trump, and a market bloodbath is imminent: Stockman
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 Stockman: Markets are 'misreading Washington'   Stockman: Markets are 'misreading Washington' 
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04:07Stockman: Markets are 'misreading Washington'
Stockman: Markets are 'misreading Washington' 
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03:30Stockman on the markets under Trump
Stockman on the markets under Trump 
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02:02Why you could see the S&P 500 lower 12 months from now
Why you could see the S&P 500 lower 12 months from now 
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Former top federal budget official David Stockman has a stark warning for investors: There's going to be a disaster in Washington and you're not going to see it coming.

Stockman, an ardent critic of President Donald Trump, has strong doubts that the rosy view investors are taking on the economy can hold water in the near-term. As usual, he didn't mince words when explaining his perspective to CNBC.

Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index jumped following Trump's speech to Congress, with markets growing more bullish about the Trump policy agenda. Yet since Wednesday, both indexes have failed to continue the trend of new highs.

The stall in the rally has Stockman, former OMB director under the Reagan administration, labeling Trump's address as "irrelevant" to what will happen to the market and the economy.

"Wall Street is totally misreading Washington," Stockman told CNBC's "Futures Now"in a recent interview. "It's pricing in a fantasy about a Trump stimulus that simply isn't going to happen. There will be no tax cut, there will be no 15 or 20 dollar a share reduction in the corporate rate."

According to Stockman, the main catalyst for his pessimism about Trump's policies is the "debt ceiling trap" that he contended will prevent tax reform, infrastructure and defense spending that have excited so many investors.

Given the "factions" among the Republican Party today, the former Reagan aide also believed that the political turmoil could result in a gridlock the markets don't see coming.

"We will have a government shutdown," said Stockman. "It is totally unexpected, unpriced in by Wall Street, [and] it will spook everybody."

At least for now, the Federal Reserve believes current economic conditions — bolstered in part by Trump's policy agenda—justify tighter monetary policy as a preemptive strike on price pressures. On Friday, Fed chair Janet Yellen strongly hinted that a rate hike was on the table when the Fed meets this month.

Yellen told an audience that "gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be appropriate in the months and years ahead: Those increases would keep the economy from significantly overheating, thereby sustaining the expansion and maintaining price stability."

Stockman, however, remained unimpressed.

"I see nothing to re-accelerate the economy or profits, and I see a huge mess, bloodbath, fiscal stalemate in Washington that will remove any of the stimulus that any of the traders are expecting from infrastructure and big tax cuts and all the rest," he added.

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2017, 06:38:57 AM »


David Stockman: Trump’s tax plan is ‘dead on arrival’ and Wall St. is ‘delusional' for believing it
Amanda Diaz   | @CNBCDiaz
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 David Stockman: Trump’s tax plan is ‘dead on arrival’ and Wall St. is ‘delusional’   David Stockman: Trump’s tax plan is ‘dead on arrival’ and Wall St. is ‘delusional’ 
Friday, 28 Apr 2017 | 12:32 PM ET | 04:37
David Stockman has a stern message for investors: They're living in a fantasy land about Trump.

In a recent interview on CNBC's "Futures Now," the former director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Reagan said that "Wall Street is totally misreading Washington," and President Trump's promises of tax reform will be "dead before arrival."

The president is "essentially a 70-year old kid in a candy store who wants one of everything: More for defense, veterans, border walls, law enforcement, infrastructure and 'phenomenal' tax cuts, too—without the inconvenience of paying for any of it," said Stockman.

Of the proposed tax bill announced this week, he said, "It's a wonderful fantasy…but there's no way to pay for the $7.5 trillion cost of the main features."

'Total calamity'

The White House announced a one-page tax reform plan on Wednesday, and some of the points Stockman highlighted include: Three tax brackets, double standard deduction and the reduction of corporate and non-corporate business taxes down to 15 percent.

In a research note this week, Goldman Sachs pegged the cost of the tax plan to just under $5 trillion, when factoring in key changes such as repealing of the state and local tax, and a 35 percent top marginal rate instead of 33 percent. Goldman analysts expect the tax bill is "fairly likely" to become law, but warned progress could be slow.

"I like [the tax plan] but you have to pay for it either with a new tax like the border adjustment tax, which is dead, or spending cuts which Trump has ruled off the table," Stockman explained. "What you have down there is a total fiscal calamity that is going to basically dominate Washington."

Stockman expects a "constant fiscal crisis and stalemate" in D.C., which will ultimately delay the "good stuff," like a tax cut, from ever happening.

Of Trump's first 100 days in office, Stockman again referred to the White House as a "pop up store giving out candy before the 100th day to say they've accomplished something." Adding, "this isn't a serious plan, it can't be done. And I think it's only indicative of the huge trouble that's brewing down there in the beltway."

Despite Trump's somewhat tumultuous first few months in office, the stock market has been resilient. The S&P 500 Index is up 11 percent since the election and 5 since the inauguration, the third best performance under a new administration since World War 2. On Friday, the S&P traded within 1 percent of its all-time high.

Eventually, however, Stockman expects the drama in D.C. to trickle into equities, sparking a significant pullback.

"I don't know what the stock market is thinking but if they have faith in a giant fiscal stimulus and tax cut then it's a delusional faith that's going to be badly disappointed and I think fairly soon," he added.

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2017, 10:28:03 AM »



'Horrendous storm' to hit stocks, Wall Street not rational: David Stockman
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 ‘Horrendous storm’ to hit stocks: Stockman    ‘Horrendous storm’ to hit stocks: Stockman 
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Investing in the Trump trade
If David Stockman is right, Wall Street should hunker down.

"This is one of the most dangerous market environments we've ever been in. It's the calm before a gigantic, horrendous storm that I don't think is too far down the road," he recently said on "Futures Now."

Stockman, who was director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, made his latest prediction after lawmakers grilled former FBI Director James Comey over whether President Donald Trump tried to influence the Russia investigation.

"This is a huge nothing-burger, but you don't take comfort from that. You get worried about that because the system is determined to unseat Donald Trump," said Stockman.

Stockman argues the latest drama on Capitol Hill is a distraction from the real problems facing the economy.

"If the Senate can involve itself in something this groundless, it's just more hysteria about Russia-gate for which there is no evidence. If they can bog themselves down in this, then we have a dysfunctional, ungovernable situation in Washington," he said, noting there are just seven weeks until lawmakers go home for the August recess.

Stockman contends it's unlikely tax reform and an infrastructure package will become reality in this environment — two business-friendly policies seen as a huge benefit to Wall Street.

In fact, he warns, the country could see a government shutdown in a matter of months.

A scenario like that could wipe out all of the stock market gains since the election and more, according to Stockman.

"I don't know what Wall Street is smoking. They ought to be getting out of the casino while it's still safe. Yet there's this idea that since he [Trump] wasn't incriminated, that proves that we can move on," he said. "I think it's crazy."

Stockman believes the S&P 500 could easily fall to 1,600, about a 34 percent drop from current levels. He's made similar calls like this in the past, but they haven't materialized.

"There is nothing rational about this market. It's just a machine-trading-driven bubble that's nearing some kind of all-time craziness, mania," he said.

Sign up for the "Futures Now" newsletter here.

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2017, 12:50:00 PM »


'Horrendous storm' to hit stocks, Wall Street not rational: David Stockman
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Investing in the Trump trade
If David Stockman is right, Wall Street should hunker down.

"This is one of the most dangerous market environments we've ever been in. It's the calm before a gigantic, horrendous storm that I don't think is too far down the road," he recently said on "Futures Now."

Stockman, who was director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, made his latest prediction after lawmakers grilled former FBI Director James Comey over whether President Donald Trump tried to influence the Russia investigation.

"This is a huge nothing-burger, but you don't take comfort from that. You get worried about that because the system is determined to unseat Donald Trump," said Stockman.

Stockman argues the latest drama on Capitol Hill is a distraction from the real problems facing the economy.

"If the Senate can involve itself in something this groundless, it's just more hysteria about Russia-gate for which there is no evidence. If they can bog themselves down in this, then we have a dysfunctional, ungovernable situation in Washington," he said, noting there are just seven weeks until lawmakers go home for the August recess.

Stockman contends it's unlikely tax reform and an infrastructure package will become reality in this environment — two business-friendly policies seen as a huge benefit to Wall Street.

In fact, he warns, the country could see a government shutdown in a matter of months.

A scenario like that could wipe out all of the stock market gains since the election and more, according to Stockman.

"I don't know what Wall Street is smoking. They ought to be getting out of the casino while it's still safe. Yet there's this idea that since he [Trump] wasn't incriminated, that proves that we can move on," he said. "I think it's crazy."

Stockman believes the S&P 500 could easily fall to 1,600, about a 34 percent drop from current levels. He's made similar calls like this in the past, but they haven't materialized.

"There is nothing rational about this market. It's just a machine-trading-driven bubble that's nearing some kind of all-time craziness, mania," he said.

Sign up for the "Futures Now" newsletter here.

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2017, 02:18:51 PM »




 
主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 下一波金融海啸何时来? 美联储主席这么说……
下一波金融海啸何时来?
美联储主席这么说……
2292点看 2017年6月28日
 美联储主席叶伦认为,另一波金融危机不太可能在“我们的有生之年”发生。(路透社)
美联储主席叶伦认为,另一波金融危机不太可能在“我们的有生之年”发生。(路透社)

(伦敦28日综合电)美联储主席叶伦表示,美国银行体系目前已十分强健,主要得益于美联储的监管及高资本水平,相信“在我们有生之年”,不会再出现金融危机。

叶伦周二在伦敦与英国国家学术院院长斯特恩交流时表示,美联储已从金融危机学到教训,并为银行体系带来稳定。美国银行业者上周通过美联储第一轮压力测试,美联储透过这场测试观察银行业在失业率高达10%和商业不动产及公司债市场陷入混乱等严峻情势下的表现。

叶伦说:“我认为大家能看到今年各大银行的资金部位远比以前健全,所有业者都通过压力测试量化的部分。”

叶伦并大胆预测,另一波金融危机不太可能在“我们的有生之年”发生。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2017, 06:46:21 AM »



Steve Keen Rages "There Is No Excuse For Janet Yellen's Complacency"

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Authored by Steve Keen via Forbes.com,

Janet Yellen has been reported by Reuters as saying in London yesterday that “she does not believe that there will be a run on the banking system at least as long as she lives”:

"Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we're much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be," Yellen said at an event in London. “Fed’s Yellen: Not another financial crisis in ‘our lifetimes’”
The only word I can use to describe this belief is “delusional”.






The only way in which her belief could be justified would be in financial crises were truly random events, caused by something outside the economy - or just by a very bad throw of the economic dice.



This is indeed the perspective of mainstream “Neoclassical” economic theory, in which Yellen was trained, and because of which she was deemed eligible - and indeed eminently suitable - to Chair the Federal Reserve.

This is the theory that led the OECD to proclaim, two months before the crisis began in August 2007, that “the current economic situation is in many ways better than what we have experienced in years”, and that they expected that “sustained growth in OECD economies would be underpinned by strong job creation and falling unemployment.” (OECD, June 2007, “Achieving Further Re-balancing”). It is the theory that led her colleague David Stockton, then the Director of the Division of Research and Statistics at the Federal Reserve, to dismiss the possibility of a recession after the crisis had begun, in December 2007—the very month that the recession is now regarded as having commenced:

Overall, our forecast could admittedly be read as still painting a pretty benign picture: despite all the financial turmoil, the economy avoids recession and, even with steeply higher prices for food and energy and a lower exchange value of the dollar, we achieve some modest edging-off of inflation. (Federal Open Market Committee transcript, December 2007)
So what we are getting from her is not merely her own personal complacency, but the complacency of an approach to economics which has always been grounded in the beliefs that (a) capitalism is inherently stable, (b) that the financial sector can  be ignored—yes that’s right, ignored—when doing macroeconomics, and (c) that the Great Depression was an anomaly that can also be ignored, because it can only have been caused either by an exogenous shock or bad government policy, both of which cannot be predicted in advance.

Someone who would not have been deemed suitable to run the Federal Reserve, before the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08, was the maverick American economist Hyman Minsky. Minsky began from the perspective that, to be realistic, economic theory had to answer the question:

Can "It"—a Great Depression—happen again? And if "It" can happen, why didn't "It" occur in the years since World War II? These are questions that naturally follow from both the historical record and the comparative success of the past thirty-five years. (Minsky, Can “It” Happen Again? 1982, p. xii)

To do this, Minsky made the obvious point that economic theory had to be able to explain how Great Depressions came about:

To answer these questions it is necessary to have an economic theory which makes great depressions one of the possible states in which our type of capitalist economy can find itself. (Minsky, 1982, p. xi.)
He specifically rejected the dominant Neoclassical approach to economics on this basis:

The abstract model of the neoclassical synthesis cannot generate instability. When the neoclassical synthesis is constructed, capital assets, financing arrangements that center around banks and money creation, constraints imposed by liabilities, and the problems associated with knowledge about uncertain futures are all assumed away. For economists and policy-makers to do better we have to abandon the neoclassical synthesis. (Minsky, 1982, p. 5. Emphasis added.)
Minsky argued instead that financial crises are not random, but are a manifestation of the innate nature of capitalist economies. They can be anticipated by trends in private debt (though their precise timing can’t be determined because their occurrence depends in part on firms’ willingness to borrow, or banks’ willingness to lend terminating in response to levels and rates of growth of private debt that are too high relative to GDP). But most conventional economists don’t know that Minsky argued this, because he could only get published in journals that most conventional economists never read.

I say most conventional economists don’t know of Minsky’s arguments, because some have now read him—and that includes Janet Yellen.

She knows who Minsky was. She has spoken at conferences at the Levy Institute at Bard College, in upstate New York, where Minsky worked for his final years. She gave a speech there just 18 months after the crisis began, at a conference named after Minsky, in which she praised Minsky (Janet Yellen, April 16 2009, “A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers”). She noted in it the irony of her giving such a speech, when the previous time she had spoken at the Levy Institute, she had extolled the virtues of derivatives (the CDOs and the like which, a decade later, helped trigger the biggest crisis since the Great Depression):

It’s a great pleasure to speak to this distinguished group at a conference named for Hyman P. Minsky. My last talk here took place 13 years ago when I served on the Fed’s Board of Governors. My topic then was “The ‘New’ Science of Credit Risk Management at Financial Institutions.” It described innovations that I expected to improve the measurement and management of risk. My talk today is titled “A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers.” I won’t dwell on the irony of that.

She might not want to dwell on the irony, but I do. When she spoke at the Levy Institute in the Spring of 1996, she clearly had no idea of Minsky, nor of his diametrically opposed view of how financial markets operated. But Minsky was alive when she spoke, and may well have attended her talk. If he had, he would have shaken his head at the naivety of the views she expressed then (as I do now at her views today):

Despite the complexities I have attempted to describe today—indeed, partly because of these complexities—I remain highly optimistic that both our system of financial intermediation and our system of financial regulation will remain strong and resilient. We know much more about risk measurement and management than we did a decade ago—and a decade from now we will know still more. Just as I cannot imagine that our present system of regulation will remain unchanged forever, I cannot imagine that we will ever reach a "perfect" system of regulation and supervision. However, we can, and I believe will, make the system better as we strive to adapt to changing realities. Perhaps a future Federal Reserve governor will appear before you a decade hence to discuss the continuing evolution of our financial system. (Yellen, “The ‘New’ Science of Credit Risk Management at Financial Institutions”, Levy Institute, Spring 1996).
So back then she said she couldn’t imagine a “perfect” system of regulation, but now she can imagine a world in which another financial crisis doesn’t occur in the lifetime of her audience in London yesterday.

Clearly, what she read of Minsky after the crisis has completely slipped her mind, because in the one paper of Minsky’s she cited in her 2009 speech (Minsky, “The Financial Instability Hypothesis”, 1992), the bare bones of Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis” are outlined.

But even her choice of a paper to read by Minsky—and from the bibliography, she did read only one paper—shows a fatal lack of imagination. It was merely the first in a brief list of 13 papers by Minsky on a readily available archive site. However, Minsky had published three books and over 100 papers by the time she deigned to read just one of them.

One of those books, Can “It” Happen Again, which was released in 1982 provides 13 of his best essays in an easily accessible format. If she pined for maths, then my 1995 paper "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's 'Financial Instability Hypothesis” was available and findable by anyone who knows how to use EconLit, the journal abstracting service of the American Economic Association.

In other words, she didn’t read Minsky to understand him, in the aftermath to a crisis which his theory predicted and which hers treated as unpredictable. She read him simply so that she could say she had read him, and then continued to ignore him and persist with the beliefs that had led her and her predecessors blindfolded into the greatest crisis since the Great Depression. And of course, the political leaders of the world were led with her, and us citizens too, because politicians then did defer to economists like Greenspan and Bernanke as not merely experts on the economy, but sages whose oracular advice could be trusted.

That was then. We’ve since been through the crisis they thought couldn’t occur. We live in its aftermath today, and there will be another crisis in our lifetimes—as I’ll explain in my next post (if you can’t wait for the explanation, it’s all in my short book Can we avoid another financial crisis?). And yet the Federal Reserve continues to be led by, and staffed by, economists who can’t imagine that another crisis might occur.

That is not the sort of imagination we need in charge of the Federal Reserve—unless, that is, we actually enjoy running blindfolded into catastrophes.

Yellen’s confidence that another financial crisis will not occur “in our lifetimes” is sufficient reason to remove her from the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and replace her with someone who is less confident.

Risk ManagementReutersFederal ReserveFinancial RegulationJanet YellenGreat DepressionMeltdownB+RecessionUnemploymentHyman Minsky
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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2017, 07:20:55 PM »



David Stockman: Trump tax reform overhaul is a pipe dream, stocks are heading for 40-70% plunge
Stephanie Landsman   | @stephlandsman
Published 14 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
 Stockman: Stocks to plummet 40-70%   Stockman: Stocks to plummet 40-70% 
3:44 PM ET Thu, 28 Sept 2017 | 02:05
David Stockman is warning about the Trump administration's tax overhaul plan, Federal Reserve policy, saying they could play into a severe stock market sell-off.

Stockman, the Reagan administration's director of the Office of Management and Budget, isn't stepping away from his thesis that the 8½-year-old rally is in serious danger.

"There is a correction every seven to eight years, and they tend to be anywhere from 40 to 70 percent," Stockman said recently on CNBC's "Futures Now." "If you have to work for a living, get out of the casino because it's a dangerous place."

He's made similar calls, but they haven't materialized. In June, Stockman told CNBC the S&P 500 could easily fall to 1,600, which at the time represented a 34 percent drop. This week, the index was trading at record levels above 2,500.

Stockman puts a big portion of the blame on the Federal Reserve, and its ultra-loose monetary policy.

"This is a bubble created by the Fed," he said. "We're heading for higher yields. We are heading for a huge reset of pricing in the risk markets that's been based on ultra-cheap yields that the central banks of the world created that are now going to go away because they're telling you that they're done."

'An orange swan that won't stop tweeting'

At the height of the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the S&P 500 Index plummeted as much as 58 percent. It happened in March 2009.

"This market at 24 times GAAP earnings, 21 times operating earnings, 100 months into a business expansion with the kind of troubles you have in Washington, central banks [are] going to the sidelines," he said. "There's very little reward, and there's a heck of a lot of risk."

Stockman argued that President Donald Trump's business-friendly tax reform bill, which was unveiled Wednesday, won't prevent a damaging sell-off. He previously said Wall Street is "delusional" for believing it will even be passed.

"This is a fiscal disaster that when they [Wall Street] begin to look at it, they'll see it's not even remotely paid for. This bill will go down for the count," said Stockman.

He said White House economic advisor Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin "totally failed to provide any detail, any leadership, any plan. Both of them ought to be fired because they let down the president in a major, major way."

And, it's not just Washington dysfunction and Fed policy that could ultimately make Stockman's long-held bearish prediction a reality. He says there will be a catalyst, but it's unknown exactly what it will be.

"You get a black swan in the old days, or maybe you get an orange swan now, the one in the Oval Office who can't seem to stop tweeting and distracting the whole process from accomplishing anything," Stockman said of President Donald Trump.

The White House did not respond to CNBC's request for comment

Offline ongchef

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2017, 01:29:26 AM »
 :D :D :D,,,,,,Trumpnomics n for europe old populations survivals,

 Asia base on fundamentals of China economies,OBOR<!! :thumbsup: :clap: :clap: :clap:

Bombs from kim lar,antu vanpire,crabs#udang head@mars &@/xxx mercury, whatsnot rubbish annalick still in stone age, yet>>>South Korea posts record exports in September, longest run of growth in 6 years :D :D :D

OnG on bullish trend is the only train head left for  recovery here!!! ;)

Offline ongchef

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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2017, 01:40:00 AM »
 :)..........ffurther buys on OnG stocks ,correction or small down means further stock- INs !!! 8)... low volume on down,up on large volumes ;),.....monday ,October USD 60~70 per barrel, bungaraya layalaya above 70 sen!!!  :thumbsup: :clap: :clap: :clap: :cash: :cash: :cash:


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Re: SELL EVERYTHING BY DAVID STOCKMAN
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2017, 01:40:00 AM »