Author Topic: MOODY'S RATING  (Read 436 times)

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MOODY'S RATING
« on: December 15, 2016, 02:36:38 PM »



2016-12-15 12:13
易受资金外流冲击.穆迪:大马高负债成挑战
穆迪投资者服务表示,大马、蒙古、斯里兰卡、香港、新加坡和台湾,都是容易受到资金外流冲击的经济体。
(吉隆坡14日讯)穆迪投资者服务(Moody's Investors Service)表示,大马、蒙古、斯里兰卡、香港、新加坡和台湾,都是容易受到资金外流冲击的经济体。

广告

 
穆迪在报告中说,如果美国候选总统特朗普收紧贸易和投资条例,大马、新加坡、泰国和越南都难逃冲击,因为这些经济体的全球出口占国内生产总值(GDP)比例高达50至150%。

“如果美国政策转为内向,菲律宾等经济体的信贷评级打击更大;如果美国公司的外包服务不再受到鼓励,菲律宾就可能面对冲击。”

该机构表示,虽然大马的资金外流压力低于蒙古等经济体,但依然不容乐观。

“资金持续外流或流入减缓,都可能为高负债经济体造成间接的挑战,特别是一些无法运用财政和货币工具减轻全球金融条件紧缩的政府,问题更为严重。”

该机构说,香港、新加坡和台湾的财务政策仍有缓冲的空间。

该机构认为,目前脆弱的领域包括中国的企业,以及大马、澳洲、韩国、纽西兰、新加坡、台湾和泰国的家庭。

广告

“为了减少冲击,高负债企业和家庭可能大幅减少开销。”

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经‧2016.12.15

Malaysia's Biggest Investment Forum

MOODY'S RATING
« on: December 15, 2016, 02:36:38 PM »

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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2017, 06:59:21 AM »



穆迪指政策影响主权信评
大马易受资金外流冲击
159点看 2017年1月11日
 

(吉隆坡11日讯)国际评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)分析员,将大马列入最易受资金外流影响的亚太区国家之一。


据穆迪《2017年亚太区主权展望——稳定外部平衡、政治风险和体制改革》报告,被纳入最易受资金外流影响的国家,还包括蒙古(Caa1 基准)、斯里兰卡(B1 负面),以及印尼(Baa3 基准)。

穆迪指,尽管中国拥有庞大的外汇储备来提供充足的外部流动,但有鉴于外部融资收紧和潜在资金外流增长,将可能影响国内金融政策的效率。

亚太区主权信评趋稳

“主要影响主权信贷评级的是政府推行的政策。”至于新兴市场,由于全球增长呈下跌趋势,加上美联储升息,资金流入将减少。

不过,穆迪透露,从2017年整体来看,亚太区的主权信贷是趋于稳定的。

“主权信贷稳定,主要因为收入水平增加和机构加强。”

另一方面,尽管亚太区国内生产总值(GDP)增长强劲,但是,全球贸易和资金外流放缓,将影响该区的信贷表现。

GDP预测过程中,穆迪已纳入全球贸易放缓的预估,特别是高度依赖出口经济体,如香港(Aa1 负面)、韩国(Aa2 基准)、新加坡(Aaa 基准)及台湾(Aa3 基准)。

穆迪披露,2017年的信贷表现,将取决于目前改革有效性和政治风险发展。

穆迪的报告显示,亚太区部分国家的评级皆为“持有”评级,体现前景稳定,不过负面较为明显。

根据穆迪给予的评级,24个主权国家中,有18个趋向稳定,4个负面和2个正面。


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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2017, 08:03:41 PM »



2017-04-02 19:22
收入跌.政府财政“中等”.穆迪:大马债务风险升
穆迪近期出炉的报告指出,大马政府庞大负债及与A级同侪相对较差的债务可承担能力,受到高比例的本地货币债务及管理性质所平衡,不过,却增加大马政府资产负债表的连锁风险。
国际评级公司穆迪(Moody)最新分析显示,大马收入持续下跌,使其财政状况从“高等”走低至“中等”,从而负面影响大马其他财政指标。

广告

 
穆迪近期出炉的报告指出,大马政府庞大负债及与A级同侪相对较差的债务可承担能力,受到高比例的本地货币债务及管理性质所平衡,不过,却增加大马政府资产负债表的连锁风险。

4因素决定债券评级

穆迪高级信贷人员克里斯迪安迪古斯曼在报告中指出,财政状况为决定主权政府债券评级的4项因素之一。

其余3项因素包括经济强度、机构强度、及对事件风险的敏感性。

穆迪指出,大马政府偿还利息付款占收入比例的债务可承担率,比趋势改善的A3级及A2级同侪,大马情况却是持续恶化。

报告指出,由于大马资本账项相对开放,非居民投资者在国内政府债券市场的庞大参与率,以及美国货币政策进一步紧缩,穆迪预料大马政府基准债券的利率将持续走高。有鋻于此,大马政府债务偿还能力是否改善,将胥视其收入是否增强。


香烟再传涨价 英美烟草遭卖压

广告

 
截至2016年杪为止,大马债务负担虽然沉重,不过,以外币计算的大马直接政府债仅有3.3%。

穆迪报告表示,这使大马在A级国家之中发行本身货币最低的国家之一。这些大部份是符合伊斯兰教义的美元债券,使它成为类似私人领域债券的基准指标。

有鋻于此,最近数年马币兑美元汇率走贬,对大马政府债务负担或偿还债务承诺的影响较微。

“大马政府债对国内生产总值比已经见顶,预料2017年起的改善有限。”

广告

大马2016年的负债比下跌,主要是将公务员的房屋贷款计划的债务转移至新成立的法定机构——公共领域房屋融资局。虽然此行动降低联邦政府的直接债务负担,使它维持在自定的55%国内生产总值比例顶限,惟它井不会有重大的信贷冲击,因为直接债务下跌受到连锁负债增加所抵销。

根据财政部2016/2017年经济报告书指出,联邦政府的2016年债务为6557亿4000万令吉,比2015年的6305亿4000万令吉增加4%,不过,若以债务兑国内生产总值比计算,却从54.5%下跌至53.2%。

今年收入或跌2.63%

该行指出,大马政府兑国内生产总值比的债务,对许多相同评级的同侪保持偏高。同时,它的收入表现却持续下滑,它预料大马政府占收入比的债务,比原本比一些同侪差劲的水平中进一步恶化。

大马财政部预测,大马政府2017年的收入下跌2.63%至2197亿3000万令吉,比较2016年修正后的2256亿6000万令吉。

竞争力下滑

穆迪指出,大马的经济强项,获得穆迪的“非常高等级”,为大马大规模及蓬勃的中期成长展望,相对地比同类评级同侪,则出现竞争力下滑的迹象。

“预料大马2017年及2018年的国内生产总值成长达4.3%,经常账仍取得盈余。稳定的外汇储备缓冲货币及资金流的波动。”

大马2016年经济成长率为4.2%,2015年为5%。

至于机构强项,穆迪表示,大马取得“高等”评级,主要是良好货币管理的记录及银行稳定,以及过去数年坚持财务整顿措施。

在对事件风险敏感性方面,穆迪对大马评级为“中等”,主要是外国动荡风险所致。

该行指出,偏高的家庭债使银行领域风险取得低分数,政治风险则为“低等-”以反映选举周期里的广泛政策的持续性。政府游资风险则“非常低等级(-)”,以反映国内融资优势,将缓和本地货币政府债券市场的资金外流冲击。



文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧市场热点‧文:李文龙‧2017.04.02

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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2017, 06:41:25 AM »


继中国后 穆迪再砍香港信评
財经 最后更新 2017年05月25日 19时43分
继中国后 穆迪再砍香港信评

0分享
(香港25日讯)继中国后,香港债信评等也被穆迪(Moody's)下调。

国际信评机构穆迪24日下调中国主权债信评后,同日深夜又宣布將香港的本幣和外幣发行人评级下调1级,从「Aa1」降至「Aa2」,展望则由「负面」调整至「稳定」。

穆迪指出,由於香港与中国在经济、金融与政治层面关係紧密,中国信用状態对香港有重大影响,此决定是因应调低中国主权评级而作出的举动。但穆迪认为,香港仍有强大的金融实力,因此將前景展望调整为「稳定」。


对此,香港官方回应,非常不认同穆迪的观点。財政司司长陈茂波说,虽然中国经济和香港经济关係非常密切,但不认同穆迪基於对中国主权信用评级的调整,而机械式地隨之把香港评级下调。

穆迪週三稍早將中国信评由「Aa3」下调至「A1」,理由是债务风险,也让中国官方全面上阵「灭火」,包括中国財政部、发改委,甚至官媒《新华社》第一时间重批穆迪「误判」、「信誉早已受到质疑」。



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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2017, 02:00:18 PM »



 > 指低估财政实力 中国抨穆迪降评不合理
指低估财政实力
中国抨穆迪降评不合理
70点看 2017年5月26日
(北京25日讯)中国反驳了穆迪下调其主权信用评级的做法,政府称此举高估了中国经济面临的困难,其他人则对这家评级公司的动机提出了质疑。

穆迪投资者服务公司认为,地方政府融资平台、国有企业等的债务水平持续增长,会增加政府或有债务。


中国财政部周三就此发布答记者问的新闻稿称,穆迪的说法是“根本不成立”的。

穆迪自1989年以来首次下调了中国的债务评级,由Aa3下调至A1。

称严控公债

财政部称,穆迪低估了中国政府深化供给结构性及改革和适度扩大总需求的能力。

财政部指出,中国一直在控制政府债务的增长,并表示,2018-2020年中国政府债务风险指标,与2016年相比不会发生大的变化。

财政部说:“2016年政府债务的负债率(债务余额/GDP)为36.7%,低于欧盟60%的警戒线,也低于主要市场经济国家和新兴市场国家水平,风险总体可控。”

穆迪的评级也与中国本土评级机构——大公国际资信评估有限公司,形成鲜明对比。

大公对中国的本币主权信用评级为AA+,外币信用评级为最高级别AAA。

相比之下,大公对美国的本外币信用评级均为A-,低于俄罗斯和法国。


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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2017, 02:03:35 PM »




算法革新害中国降级?/叶得利
122点看 2017年5月25日
 
经济慧眼●叶得利
金融学博士
国际评级机构“穆迪”在周三发布声明称,将中国评级从Aa3下调至A1,而把评级展望由负面调整为稳定,以反映未来几年中国债务的攀升以及经济放缓,将削弱中国的财政实力。

此次穆迪突然的降低对中国经济的评级,已经触动了中国政府的敏感神经,迎来了中国官方的各种强烈回应。


这样的局面,似乎显示了中国政府在金融数据公开透明化存在问题,无法避免西方评级机构对中国经济状况的质疑。

根据穆迪调降中国评级的理由,包括中国实体经济的债务规模将快速增长,中国政府的相关宏观改革措施将难以成效,以及中国政府将继续通过刺激政策维持经济增速等。

此次调降评级迎来的市场反应,中国股市和人民币汇市纷纷走软。

对此,中国财政部也随后迅速回应,从中国经济前景、政府直接债务水平、政府或有债务法律界定等方面分别予以批驳。



政府质疑无碍结果

根据中国财政部的说法,中国政府的债务规模增长势头得到有效控制,未来债务规模将保持合理增长,2018-2020年中国政府债务风险指标,与2016年相比将不会发生大的变化。

我们可以回溯近期中国经济走势,中国在今年实行了众多资本管控,金融市场监管新条例,股市和债市表现处于低下。

同时,中国经济未能延续在今年第一季度的良好开头态势,境外机构也对中国经济的看空升温。

对此,就算中国政府对穆迪评级的计算方法产生质疑,也无法改变已发布的评级结果,毕竟评级数据就是一切。

另外,说到评级或金融计算方法的革新,金融市场将会更趋向于“智能的自动化交易”,或者说是由那些创造神级算法程序——即量化交易专员(Quant)所主导的革命。相对于那些靠经验、直觉谋生的交易员,这些量化交易专员的技术更数理化。

量化对冲基金交易大增

根据一项针对美国股市的交易数据显示,在投资者进行的所有美国股票交易中,量化专员所主持的量化对冲基金,其交易量占比已经达到27%,较2013年的14%大幅上升。

量化专员所创造的成交量,已经极快的显示出战胜市场的实力,比起其他专业的散户更快的达到投资成效。

此外,交易数据显示截至今年第一季度末,以量化交易专员为主的对冲基金资产规模,已经达到约9320亿美元(4兆令吉),占所有对冲基金总资产的30%以上。相比过去2009年对冲基金资产规模4080亿美元(1.75兆令吉),占所有对冲基金总资产的25%,量化投资的增长速度显著。

另外,近年来超级计算机在投资方面的表现优于人类,也促使了在过去五年,那些专注于量化分析的对冲基金,每年平均回报率都达到5%,而同期的对冲基金的年回报率则为4.3%。

智能投资盛行

除了智能投资趋势的逐渐盛行,区块链的投资技术已经逐渐在金融街普及起来。

例如,中银香港就在近日宣布,已经成功利用区块链技术,完成了香港首宗本地贸易融资服务,该新技术协助了验证交易的真实性,减少了融资所需时间。

目前已有五家估价公司和三家银行同业参与,预料区块链技术将逐渐普及化。


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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2017, 09:05:17 AM »




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Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 29 May 2017
China downgrade points to concerns over long-term financial stability
BY YAP LENG KUEN

 
THE surprise downgrade of China’s sovereign rating by Moody’s, the first time in 30 years, may not have a major impact on markets but points to nagging concerns on its long-term financial stability.

“It is unlikely to trigger a material impact as it is still an investment grade. But China needs to reduce its bloated debt to a sustainable level as that is seen threatening the stability of its financial sector.

“While the authorities have taken a series of measures to reduce debt, more needs to be done before it spirals out of control,” said Lee Heng Guie, executive director, Socio Economic Research Centre.

Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign ratings by one notch to A1, as it expected the financial strength of the world’s second-largest economy to erode in coming years on slower growth and mounting debt.

China strongly criticised the downgrade, that it was based on “inappropriate methodology”, exaggerating difficulties facing the economy and under-estimating the government’s reform efforts, noted Reuters.

Structural reforms in China will slow the pace of its debt build-up but will not be enough to arrest it, and another credit rating cut is possible unless it gets its ballooning credit in check, said Reuters, quoting officials at Moody’s.

After Moody’s downgrade, its rating for China is on the same level as that of Fitch Ratings, with Standard & Poor’s still one notch above, with a negative outlook, said Reuters.

No major impact

“The downgrade may lead to higher offshore funding costs for Chinese firms but may not deter these firms from investing offshore.

“There is still upside for emerging markets with higher inflow of funds driven by risk-on sentiment and (expectation of) potentially higher corporate earnings,” said Danny Wong, CEO, Areca Capital.

“Equities seem more focused on the possibility that the US Fed may raise interest rates further, pointing to a still robust US economy,” said Chris Eng, head of research, Etiqa Insurance & Takaful.

“Since the beginning of the year, the MSCI emerging markets index has been climbing as the US dollar index is weakening.

“China is only part of the emerging markets universe and funds still look at other emerging markets,” said Pong Teng Siew, head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.

In currencies, the yuan strengthened despite the Moody’s downgrade as China announced it was considering changes to the way it calculates the currency’s daily reference rate against the US dollar.

That move is likely to reduce exchange rate volatility and give the authorities more control over the fixing while restraining the influence of market pricing, said Bloomberg.

China seems determined not to play into the hands of short sellers (betting on further weakness of the yuan), noted Pong.

Fund destinations

The Asean valuation has hit a sweet level, said Maybank Kim Eng, adding that the MSCI Asean relative to MSCI China’s price-to-book (PB) valuation has fallen to near previous lows in November 2007.

The PB ratio is a ratio that compares the market value of a stock with its book value.

“Within Asean, we continue to favour long Indonesia, short the Philippines relative value trade. Malaysia has fallen to attractive levels.

“We have seen money continue to flow back to Asia, and should remain in the region even after the Fed raises interest rates.

“Year-to-date, the Asia dollar index has appreciated by 2.7%,” said Maybank Kim Eng in its report.

Given the deepening worries over US president Donald Trump’s erratic behaviour that is worrying global leaders and investors, money is expected to remain in Asia even after the Fed rate hike.

“Some funds are leaving the United States. The stronger ringgit points to that,” said Pong.

Some fund managers are talking of moving funds out of the United States for the next three to five years to other developed markets and emerging markets, noting the rise in some of their indices.

“India still looks good. Indonesia is good too although it has lost some of its shine lately,” said Pong.

Malaysia may be good for the next one to two years; a concern is that continuous infrastructure spending may result in sub par growth.

“Infrastructure spending is a function of pouring more resources into public works.

“There will be economic growth but there is no real attempt to ensure that inputs earn a return that is commensurate with returns elsewhere,” said an analyst.

“China may mostly sit out this rally although there may be star performers,” said Pong.

Worries of economic slowdown in China has intensified.

“China’s capital expenditure (capex) growth has declined sharply although this could be a one-off.

“In Asean, capex growth continues to improve after three years in decline,” said Maybank Kim Eng.

Europe seems a good bet.

“The president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is riding on a resurgence in Europe as he positions to extend quantitative easing (purchase of securities by central banks to, among other objectives, increase money supply),” said Pong.

For long term investments, fundamentals prevail.

“It may be tantamount to market timing if we just position for funds inflows.

“We advise our clients to have a diversified portfolio with appropriate asset allocation while we increase our exposure,” said Wong.

Columnist Yap Leng Kuen notes the need for selective investments.

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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/29/china-downgrade-points-to-concerns-over-longterm-financial-stability/#fvCKcOJOg5wyKjLw.99

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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2017, 08:41:43 PM »




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Moody's says Malaysia's private sector debt remains 'relatively high'
Sulhi Azman
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theedgemarkets.com

July 21, 2017 16:19 pm MYT

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KUALA LUMPUR (July 21): Private sector debt to GDP in Malaysia, along with China and Thailand, remains "relatively high" when compared to per capita income levels, said Moody's Investors Service in a report today.

The private sector leverage is measured as private debt held by non-financial companies and households.

Moody's said elevated private sector leverage, especially when associated with declines in lending standards, can have an adverse impact on financial stability and may exacerbate economic damage when systemic crises occur.

Not only is private sector leverage remaining elevated among emerging markets (EM), but globally too, according to Moody's.

For Malaysia, Moody's noted that the country's private sector debt to GDP or gross domestic product stood at 139%.

Globally, Moody's said the global private sector debt — as at end-2016 — remained elevated at around 186% and 95% of the GDP in advanced economies and EM respectively.

The higher level of the private sector debt was a significant increase over the past decade, it added.

However, there are signs of stabilisation in the global financial markets and gradual improvement in external imbalances.

"Over the past six months, private leverage in emerging markets has started to stabilise as a result of both slowing accumulation of private debt and continued expansion of the nominal economy. This trend is also evident among EM countries when China is excluded," it said.

"While increased private sector leverage in emerging markets can reflect sustainable financial deepening, such as the increasing provision of financial services within an economy, the pace of increase in credit over the last few years raises concerns about its sustainability in certain countries," Moody's said when singling out the Malaysia, China and Thailand for having high private sector leverage.

The report, titled Moody's Financial Monitor: Financial conditions remain favourable as growth and banking sectors stabilise, presents its views on developments in financial markets and the global banking system.

It was published after taking into account various factors that include the assessment of systemic risks and potential asset bubbles, excessive leverage, market volatility and the strength and evolution of bank fundamentals.

"While most debt was accumulated prior to and during the financial crisis, especially in advanced economies, there has been relatively little deleveraging in the post-crisis period," Moody's added.

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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2017, 09:33:13 AM »




Wednesday, 16 August 2017 | MYT 8:54 AM
Moody's says Malaysia's credit profile relatively resilient
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/08/16/00/58/kl-skyline-aug17.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=FD6946782B971C23C3DB562FE7FBD499DADBAB68
Moody's Investors Service says that it would take a significant deterioration of Malaysia's (A3 stable) external metrics from current levels for the country's credit profile to weaken.
Moody's Investors Service says that it would take a significant deterioration of Malaysia's (A3 stable) external metrics from current levels for the country's credit profile to weaken.
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Moody's Investors Service says that it would take a significant deterioration of Malaysia's (A3 stable) external metrics from current levels for the country's credit profile to weaken.

Moody's conclusion is contained in its just-released report titled "Government of Malaysia: Credit profile relatively resilient despite external vulnerabilities".

In its report issued on Wednesday, the ratings agency explains that Malaysia's foreign currency reserves have climbed out of a recent trough, but remain lower than aggregate cross-border debt due over the next year.

“An active non-resident investor presence in Malaysia's financial markets also leaves the country vulnerable to sudden swings in capital flows,” it noted.

Since mid-2016, Malaysia’s short-term external debt by original maturity has risen to nearly half of external debt, presenting rollover risks. In addition, almost 60% of total external debt is denominated in foreign currency, which gives rise to some currency risk.

While foreign reserves are still larger than short-term debt by original maturity, once currently maturing medium- and long-term debt is added, the ratio of annual external liabilities due over the next year to reserves (the external vulnerability indicator, or EVI) has been significantly above the 100% threshold for years.

“Moody's forecasts Malaysia's EVI at 143% for 2018,” it said.

The ratings agency noted that currency flexibility, prudent monetary policy and a large domestic institutional investor base buffer the impact of capital flow volatility, with large export proceeds and external assets acting as a further cushion.

Moody's points out that since its assessment of Malaysia's overall sovereign credit profile incorporates its vulnerability to capital volatility, trends in the EVI and the basic balance, its credit profile is relatively resilient to periods when such external volatility heightens.

“Other sources of credit risk would be a sharp growth slowdown or meaningful weakening in public finances; neither factors of which Moody's deems likely at this time,” it said.

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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/08/16/moodys-says-malaysia-credit-profile-relatively-resilient/#lzMymDSag5MKa3S2.99

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Re: MOODY'S RATING
« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2017, 09:33:13 AM »