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Other Investments => Global Markets => Topic started by: king on March 13, 2016, 09:05:20 AM

Title: FED
Post by: king on March 13, 2016, 09:05:20 AM



Greenspan Explains The Fed's Miserable Track Record: "We Didn't Forecast Better Because We Can't"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2016 16:28 -0500

Alan Greenspan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Great Depression Warren Buffett


 
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On March 11, the National Archives announced its first opening of Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) records, along with a detailed 1,400-page online finding aid (yes, just the index is 1,400 pages). The records which are available via DropBox, seek to identify the causes of the 2008 financial crisis.

Among the numerous materials are interviews with key players in Washington and on Wall Street, from Warren Buffett to Alan Greenspan. The documents also include minutes of commission meetings and internal deliberations concerning the causes of the financial crisis.

While we admit we have yet to read the several hundred thousand pages released yesterday, here is what has so far emerged as of the better punchlines within the data dump, and it comes courtesy of the man who many believe is responsible not only for the second global great depression (which needs trillions in central bank liquidity to be swept under the rug every day), but for the "bubble-bust-bigger bubble" cycle that was unleashed with Greenspan's Great Moderation.

Here is Allan Greenspan meeting with Dixie Noonan et al on March 31, 2010:

This is a reason why the Board is getting an unfair rap on this stuff. We didn’t forecast better than anyone else; we regulated banks that got in trouble like anyone else. Could we have done better? Yes, if we could forecast better. But we can’t. This is why I’m very uncomfortable with the idea of a systemic regulator, because they can’t forecast better.
This comes from the person in charge of the most powerful central bank in the world; a world which now is reliant exclusively on central bankers for its day to day pretend existence
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 13, 2016, 12:59:57 PM



The Fed caused 93% of the entire stock market's move since 2008: Analysis
Yahoo Finance By Lawrence Lewitinn
March 11, 2016 3:40 PM
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The bull market just celebrated its seventh anniversary. But the gains in recent years – as well as its recent sputter – may be explained by just one thing: monetary policy.

The factors behind that and previous bubbles can be illuminated using simple visual analysis of a chart.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) doubled in value from November 2008 to October 2014, coinciding with the Federal Reserve Bank’s “quantitative easing” asset purchasing program. After three rounds of “QE,” where the Fed poured billions of dollars into the bond market monthly, the Fed’s balance sheet went from $2.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion.

This isn’t just a spurious correlation, according to economist Brian Barnier, principal at ValueBridge Advisors and founder of FedDashboard.com. What’s more, he says previous bull runs in the market lasting several years can also be explained by single factors each time.

Barnier first compiled data on the total value of publicly-traded U.S. stocks since 1950. He then divided it by another economic factor, graphing the ratio for each one. If the chart showed horizontal lines stretching over long periods of time, that meant both the numerator (stock values) and the denominator (the other factor) were moving at the same rate.

“That's the beauty of the visual analysis,” he said. “All we have to do is find straight, stable lines and we know we've got something good.”


View gallery
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Scouring hundreds of different factors, Barnier ultimately whittled it down to just four factors: GDP data five years into the future, household and nonprofit liabilities, open market paper, and the Fed’s assets. At different stretches of time, just one of those was the single biggest driver of the market and was confirmed with regression analyses.

View gallery
.
He isolated each factor in a separate chart, calling them “eras” for the stock market.
From after World War II until the mid-1970s, future GDP outlook explained 90% of the stock market’s move, according to statistical analysis by Barnier.

GDP growth lost its sway on the market in the early 1970s with the rise of credit cards and consumer debt. Household liabilities grew with plastic first, followed by home mortgages, until the real estate crash of the early 1990s. Barnier’s analysis shows debt explained 95% of the entire market’s move during this time.

The period between the mid- to late-1990s until 2000 was, of course, marked by the tech bubble. While stocks took much of the headline, that time also saw heightened activity in the commercial paper market. Startups and young companies sought cash beyond their stratospheric share values to fund their operations. Barnier’s regression analysis shows commercial paper increases could explain as much as 97% of the tech bubble.

Shortly after the tech bubble burst, a housing bubble began, once more in the form of mortgages and other debt. That drove 94% of the market’s move for the first several years of the current century.

As the financial crisis reached a fevered pitch in 2008, the Federal Reserve took to flooding the financial market with dollars by buying up bonds. Simultaneously, interest rates fell dramatically, as bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. Barnier sees the Fed as responsible for over 93% of the market from the start of QE until today. During the first half of 2013, the Fed caused the entire market’s growth, he said.
Since the Fed stopped buying bonds in late 2014, the S&P 500 has been batted around in a 16% range and is more or less where it was when the QE came to a close. Investors need to anticipate the next driver, said Barnier.

“Quantitative easing has stopped, but now we're into the interest rate world,” he said. “That means for any investor trying to figure out what to do, step one is starting with a macro strategy.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 13, 2016, 07:01:31 PM



陳定遠‧流動性貨幣的去向
2016-03-13 10:01
     

 
上個星期筆者指出,西方國家陸續推出量化寬鬆措施,海量增加流動性貨幣,企圖刺激投資和消費,提振經濟活動,然而成效甚小,各國經濟依舊低迷。那麼,這些因為零利率政策,甚至量化寬鬆措施而增加的海量的流動性貨幣,到底去了哪裡?要知道這些錢究竟去了哪裡也不是容易的事,這裡我們只能數據分析推測。
美歐日英自2008年以來的量化寬鬆措施,至少增加了6萬億美元的流動性貨幣,顯然,這些增加的貨幣量並沒有全部進入實體經濟,沒有刺激到投資與消費需求。美國在2008年底推出的第一輪量化寬鬆措施,金額達6千億美元之巨,全用來購買房利美、房地美、聯邦住房貸款銀行這些與房地產有關的政府支持機構的證券,這些機構在次貸危機時瀕臨破產,是導致全球金融風暴爆發的導火索之一。
向這些機構注入大量流動性貨幣,目的是重新建立金融市場的信用,穩定信貸市場,讓人對這些機構的信心恢復,換句話說,目的在於穩定市場,而不是刺激經濟,因此對經濟沒有直接提振的作用。其實,美國的第一輪量化寬鬆額度不止6千億美元,美國總共購買了1.725萬億美元的金融資產。
因為量化寬鬆措施而增加的流動性貨幣很多不進入實體經濟,是因為有兩個好去處。第一個是成為到處流竄的熱錢,也叫游資;第二個是集中到金融市場作為投機尋租之用。
先談游資。何謂游資?游資是一種短期性的投機資金,以尋租為目的。若發覺某地的資金回報較高,游資便會流竄到該地,企圖捷足先登,奪人先機,獲取較高的回報。香港是個開放的國際金融中心,是游資最活躍的地方之一。游資流竄到香港,除了認為香港有投機尋租的機會外,更多的是為了竄入中國,進行投機尋租活動。
香港金融學家雷鼎鳴教授最近在2月28日的《亞洲週刊》撰文指出:“2008年金融海嘯發生後,主要因為歐美國家搞量化寬鬆,國際上有大量資金流通,直至今年2月初,香港的貨幣基礎共增加了1.287萬億港元(約1650億美元)”。
另一方面,通過虛假貿易和地下銀行等渠道進入中國的游資,有理由相信其金額更大,這可以從中國外匯儲備的增量得見端倪。2009年6月中國的外匯儲備餘額為21316億美元;2010年底,增至28473億美元;到了2014年年末中國外匯儲備已激增至38430億美元。僅僅4年,外匯儲備竟然增加近一萬億美元,這讓人不得不懷疑這是托西方國家量化寬鬆措施之福(也許是禍?)。中國雖然有嚴厲的資本管制,但主要通過虛假貿易讓游資進入中國也已經是公開的秘密,游資通過地下渠道竄入中國已經沒有以前那麼重要。
根據世界交易所聯合會(WFE)統計顯示,2013年全球股市成交量為69萬億美元,2014年成交量增加17.4%至81萬億美元,2105年全年成交量又劇增至114萬億美元,增幅為41%。由此可見大量的資金已經轉移至股票市場,作為尋租之用。這些的數字,還沒有包括用在大宗商品、外匯和其他金融衍生產品的交易上。
筆者有理由相信,量化寬鬆措施所增加的流動性貨幣,有很大的一部份是從銀行體系被轉移到金融市場,變成了搗亂金融市場的游資,游資的進出往往導致金融市場的波動;另一部份資金則被帶到金融市場,在股市、匯市、大宗商品和衍生產品等市場進行投機炒作,如此推波助瀾,興風作浪,往往帶來破壞性極大的金融風暴!
把大量的資金用在沒用生產性的二級股票市場的交易上,為的就是“錢生錢”,就是尋租。
應該用在增加實體經濟上的投資與消費的大量流動性貨幣,卻被轉移到了金融市場,進行沒有生產性的活動上,不但對實體經濟沒有幫助,反而有害,這是金融市場破壞實體經濟的一大證明。(星洲日報/百思莫解‧作者:陳定遠‧南方大學學院企業與管理學院教授


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 13, 2016, 08:13:29 PM



财经  2016年03月13日
本月政策会议临近 美联储升息问题拉开爭论

本月政策会议临近 美联储升息问题拉开爭论
美联储副主席费捨尔。

美国联邦储备局(美联储)等待通胀加速已经很久了,现在官员们面临一个错综复杂的局面,近期物价上涨的证据是否强劲到足以推进原定的升息计划,对此他们可能要展开喋喋不休的爭论。

在上週一出炉的几份声明中,处於辩论核心的决策者展现出截然不同的观点,联储副主席费捨尔认为,经济数据目前表明,通胀出现「首次萌芽」,而美联储委员佈雷纳德则反对称,联储在证明通胀的「持久性」之前,不应採取行动。

这些分歧性的观点,也许不会立即產生影响。美联储即將在本周开会,但会上料不会决定升息,因为前几周油价依然承压,全球股市也继续动盪。

不过,这有可能让美联储主席耶伦维护过去一年来共识的能力有所削弱,美联储要决定,在疲弱的全球经济环境下,让通胀在目前加快上升而后给予控制,或者说放慢升息速度,这样做是不是风险更大。

当美联储在较长时期內一直达不到2%通胀目標时,这样的討论並无意义,然而美联储看重的通胀指標在1月升至1.7%后,或许大家会全力参与这场討论。

通胀目標很难实现

费捨尔表示,距离通胀目標「並不是那么遥远」。在这样一个低油价、全球需求疲弱以及美元升值拉低进口价格的时期,通胀目標很难实现。

自2014年中以来,美联储官员即认为,通胀所遭遇的「阻力」將会过去,而近期的商品及服务价格数据表现,加上大宗商品跳涨,或许表明这个时刻终於到来了。

费捨尔表示,「我们此刻很可能会见到通胀上升的苗头。通胀自过低水平回升,是我们所乐见的。」

原本认为美联储要到今年底才升息的投资者,近期已將预期时点往前挪,主要因为油价劲扬且部份其他商品价格攀高。

但这可能也不足以说服联储委员佈雷纳德(Lael Brainard)这样的美联储官员。

最近几周,即便先前较为担忧通胀的决策官员也加入她的行列,担心公眾对通胀的预期下滑;后者通常是物价升势更加疲弱及可能出现通缩的预兆。

佈雷纳德指出,没有理由因为一个月强劲的数据,就仓促行事。

她表示,「儘管1月数据不错。对我来说,这只个数据面,我想要见到一种格局,有些持久性,这將会让我有些宽慰。」

她对一群银行人士表示,「鉴於外需疲弱且恶化,透过审慎调整政策路径,来小心保护並保留我们在国內已有的进展是很重要的事。」

美联储在去年12月,进行了近10年来的首次升息。

当时,它暗示今年可能升息4次,反映了美国劳动市场走强,且看好通胀將开始升向美联储2%的目標。

但今年开局以来油价下跌、全球经济放缓以及金融市场动盪,再让投资者认为,美联储的乐观看法或许弄错了。

华尔街分析师如今认为,今年只会升息两次,利率期货交易员正押注將只会升息一次
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 14, 2016, 05:43:44 PM



Why the Fed should stun Wall Street with a rate hike

By Joseph Adinolfi
Published: Mar 11, 2016 5:06 p.m. ET

     94 
A team of strategists at BAML said the Fed should surprise the markets
Getty Images
The Fed should shock the markets with an unexpected interest-rate hike just to set a precedent.
When it comes to the tricky task of raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve likes to prep investors before pulling the ripcord. It sees this as a way to prevent markets from reacting violently to unexpected news.

But this approach failed in December, when a well-telegraphed rate hike was followed by weeks of extreme volatility.

On Friday, a team of currency and interest-rate strategists at Bank of America Merill Lynch suggested that it might be time for a new approach.


After studying Fed-funds futures data, the strategists discerned that the Fed has typically provided investors with plenty of warning before raising rates.

As the following chart shows, the Fed hasn’t raised interest rates unless the market assigned it at least a 60% probability of doing so. This seems to contradict the Fed’s desire that every meeting be viewed by investors as potentially “live,” meaning the central bank could make a rate move at any one of its confabs.


This is great for minimizing volatility, the team said in a note released Friday. But it constrains the central bank’s ability to raise interest rates, sometimes forcing them to wait for a meeting with a pre-scheduled press conference before announcing any big decisions.

There’s a way to break this cycle. The Fed could set the historical norm aside and make one of its impending rate hikes at a meeting where markets aren’t pricing one in — though they were careful to rule out this happening in March.

One such surprise should be enough to convince markets that every meeting during this tightening cycle is a “live” meeting,” said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BAML.

By surprising the market once, the Fed would regain some of the flexibility it has lost for fear of disturbing the markets.

“The Fed has been very reluctant to surprise and we think that’s likely to continue,” Cabana said.

“If it thought that economic conditions were appropriate and it wanted the market to assign greater odds that the fed would go, so that if they did surprise it wouldn’t have such an impact on financial conditions,” Cabana said.

So far, the likelihood of a rate hike in coming months is slim to none. For the Fed’s next policy meeting March 15-16, the probability of the central bank lifting rates is nil, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Odds are just 22% for April, 47% for June and the market isn’t pricing in a more than 60% likelihood until September.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 14, 2016, 08:14:16 PM



Faber: Central banks will create global socialism
Leslie Shaffer   | @LeslieShaffer1
8 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Central banks around the globe are pursuing strategies that will put all financial assets into government hands, perma-bear Marc Faber, told CNBC's Squawk Box. He also took the opportunity to endorse Donald Trump's bid for the U.S. presidency.

Faber said central bank policies are essentially monetizing debt, particularly in Japan, where he claims the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is buying all the government bonds the treasury is issuing.

He expects that asset buying by global central banks will only increase, even though he believes those policies aren't working to stimulate the economy.

"The central banks aren't interested in what works, they're interested in their own prestige. And they are so deep into it already and it didn't work. They will increase the medicine," said Faber, the publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. "Eventually, they'll buy all the government bonds; they'll buy all the corporate bonds, all the shares outstanding. Afterwards the housing market goes down, they'll buy all the homes and then the government will own everything."

Marc Faber.
Faber: China’s growth is nearer 4%
That's the road to socialism, he said.

"I could see a situation where at the end the government owns all the corporations and all the government bonds and then we are back into socialism, into a planning economy," said Faber.

To be sure, the Bank of Japan does not buy Japan government bonds (JGBs) directly from the treasury; it only purchases them in the open market. Since some entities, such as banks and insurers, are required to hold JGBs in their reserves, the BOJ is unlikely to acquire all of the bonds outstanding. The BOJ does, however, use its quantitative easing program to purchase select exchange traded funds (ETFs) in the open market.

The U.S. Federal Reserve began tapering its quantitative easing program in 2013 and officially ended it in late 2014.

But last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced further easing measures, including expanding the size of its bond-buying program to 80 billion euros ($89.23 billion) worth of assets a month, to include corporate bonds.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi.
Economists mixed on ECB stimulus
Faber expects these programs will only expand.

"The governments in my view, with their agents the Federal Reserve and other central banks and with the treasury department, they will do anything not to let asset prices go down," said Faber.

"If the stock markets go down, I'm convinced all the central banks will buy stocks. All of them," he said, noting that this is not without precedent, citing Hong Kong's purchase of stocks during the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s.

Faber also took the opportunity to say he wanted Trump to take the White House in the U.S. election later this year, although he noted he's not eligible to vote.

"They basically hate Trump because he's not the party insider," Faber said. "He brings some fresh air into the whole process."

Faber added that he has "great sympathy" for the leading Republican candidate.

"I would vote for him for the simple reason that I think he's the only one that can really defeat Hillary Clinton and I would do anything if I were an American not to get Hillary Clinton as a president, anything."

Faber didn't elaborate on why he disapproves of Clinton as a candidate.

When asked how he felt about the possibility the Republican Party could still field Condoleezza Rice, who was secretary of state during the George W. Bush administration, as an 11th hour candidate, Faber said the idea made him feel sick.

"I think she was a horrible secretary of state," Faber said, without elaborating
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 16, 2016, 12:15:07 PM




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JP摩根經理人調查:Fed若未推升美元 對新興市場有利
回應(0) 人氣(62) 收藏(0) 2016/03/16 11:24
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-16 11:24:51 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯準會(Fed)即將在明(16)日公布貨幣決策,讓投資人態度轉趨觀望,新興市場這個月(3月)的跌深反彈走勢能否延續下去?專家認為,一切都要看美元是否走升。
新興市場在經歷長達9個月的下降趨勢後,最近兩個月出現跌深反彈。嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,3月至15日為止,iShares MSCI新興市場ETF (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF,代號為EEM.US)跳漲7.09%,先鋒富時新興市場ETF (Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF,代號為VWO.US)也勁揚了6.74%。
J.P.摩根認為,新興市場續彈與否,美元的走勢是關鍵。barron`s.com 15日報導,J.P.摩根分析師Adrian Mowat發表研究報告指出,調查發現全球基金經理人都在密切關注美元走向,多數仍對美元抱持多方看法,一般認為強勢美元通常對新興市場不利。

美元指數(U.S. Dollar Index)自一年前攀升至100.3點的高峰後,至今一直在95-100點之間徘徊,而懷疑美元多頭循環告終的人大都假設Fed將按兵不動。若美元並未因Fed接下來的動作而走強,那麼經理人認為這對新興市場非常有利。
除此之外,新興貨幣今(2016)年走勢相當穩健,隨著市場對新興貨幣的信心增強,投資人的確可能重拾貨幣套利策略。企業盈餘成長也是關鍵,拜原物料價格止穩、貨幣政策仍寬鬆之賜,企業經營環境有望改善,而市場會提前在盈餘翻轉前六個月就反應。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師Matthew Hornbach日前才剛對新興市場示警,認為各國政策方向分歧,再加上新興國家得償還美元計價外債、美元牛市通常會以超漲收場等因素,美元在超漲前可能還有10-15%的升值空間,這也是大摩對新興市場、原物料價格看法保守的主因。另外,日圓則有望受避險需求推動,預估歐元兌日圓到2017年第1季為止可能會貶值16%。
大摩策略師Jonathan Garner也要大家沉住氣,因為1月底至2月初恐怕並非亞洲/新興市場本波空頭循環的底部,熊還沒離開,建議大家利用本波反彈出脫持股、而不是跟著股價追高。
MarketWatch曾於2月15日報導,根據J.P.摩根證券(通稱小摩)策略師Mislav Matejka發表的研究報告,部分技術指標顯示,股市短期內有遭超賣的跡象,近期有反彈的機會,且力道將比1月底那波6-8%的行情還要強勢且持久。報告舉出的其中一項訊號是,美國散戶投資人協會(The American Association of Individual Investors;AAII)的多空指標已下滑至負29點,創2031年4月以來新低。
不過,Matejka也建議投資人把這次反彈視為出售股票的機會,因為2016年股市展望仍然保守、預估下半年可能會進一步走弱。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 16, 2016, 02:29:02 PM




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通膨蠢動!高盛:FOMC應會上修核心PCE,看多美元
回應(0) 人氣(135) 收藏(0) 2016/03/16 13:05
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-16 13:05:57 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯準會(Fed)高度關注的通膨指標「核心個人消費支出(PCE)平減指數」在1月年增1.7%、創2014年7月新高,逐漸逼近Fed設定的2%目標,若再不升息,恐怕有貨幣政策趕不上通膨、導致經濟過熱的疑慮。(圖為Fed主席葉倫)
高盛因此預估,Fed 3月將按兵不動、6月可能升息一碼,但4月升息的機率也不能完全排除,這樣的鷹派做法應該會推動美元走升。不過,美元指數在一年前突破100點大關後,從此卻在95-100點區間內震盪,讓長期看多美元的高盛臉上無光,這次是否能扳回一城、有待觀察。
嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,PowerShares德銀美元指數基金(Powershares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund,代號為UUP.US)年初迄今下跌2.26%,2015年、2014年分別上漲7.01%、11.38%。

barron`s.com 15日報導,高盛分析師Silvia Ardagna發表研究報告指出,雖然美國經濟數據方向正確、金融市場逐漸回穩、新興市場風險因人行堅稱人民幣不會驟貶而減輕,再加上歐洲央行(ECB)、日本央行(BOJ)加碼寬鬆,但美元都並未因此攀升。現在,唯一還未受到矚目的就是通膨,但假如聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)一如高盛預期上修2016年核心PCE預估值,那這應可解讀為Fed立場偏向鷹派。
Ardagna指出,若Fed運用3月的會議引導投資人對升息的期望,那對美元有利。以去(2015)年10月為例,FOMC會議結束後,市場預估的12月升息機率從開會前一天的35%跳升至50%,而美元相對於十大工業國(G10)一籃子貨幣的匯率也升值0.4%,直到11月9日美元升勢才觸頂,而12月升息機率也拉高至80%,這段期間美元相對G10貨幣共計升值1.7%。
Fed副主席費雪(Stanley Fischer)3月7日即駁斥低失業率、高通膨之間聯繫已被打破的理論,宣稱兩者的關聯不久就能再次得到驗證。
路透社、英國金融時報報導,費雪7日在一場經濟論壇上表示,在油價、美元止穩後,美國通膨率遲早會朝2%標邁進。他還說,通膨距離央行預設的目標(2%)並沒有大家想像那麼遠。
富蘭克林坦伯頓全球宏觀團隊投資長、「富坦全球債券基金」(Templeton Global Bond Fund)冠軍操盤人麥可哈森泰博(Michael Hasenstab)2月12日在官網也曾發表最新研究報告指出,油價不需上漲、只要持穩不再續跌,則通膨率就可回歸到2%的正軌。強勢美元雖然也會壓低美國通膨,但哈森泰博指出,就算美元相對歐元升值了10%、也只會讓通膨率下降10個基點。因此,主要影響通膨的是油價,而他認為這個因素是短暫的。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師Matthew Hornbach日前才剛對新興市場示警,認為各國政策方向分歧,再加上新興國家得償還美元計價外債、美元牛市通常會以超漲收場等因素,美元在超漲前可能還有10-15%的升值空間,這也是大摩對新興市場、原物料價格看法保守的主因。另外,日圓則有望受避險需求推動,預估歐元兌日圓到2017年第1季為止可能會貶值16%。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉。


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MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 07:48:47 AM



"Data Dependent" Fed Chickens Out Again: Blames "Global" Risks For Unchanged Rates, Cuts Rate Hike Forecast
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2016 15:32 -0400

fixed Goldilocks headlines


 
inShare
4
 
With gold up 15% since The Fed hiked in December (and stocks lower) and the market pricing a hike today at just 4% (June 53%), it is not surprising that Janet panicced and folded again in the face of "unequivocally good" data based on what the "Dow Data Dependent" Fed has said it monitors. Of course there were plenty of excuses:

FED MEDIAN FORECAST IMPLIES TWO 2016 RATE HIKES VS FOUR IN DEC
 
FED SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE TO POSE RISKS
 FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 0.25%-0.5% AS EXPECTED
FED: GEORGE DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF A RATE RISE TO 0.5%-0.75%
Not too dovish (upgrade uncertainty), not too hawkish (lowered rate hikes), a goldilocks statement, with just a little less inflation and just a little less GDP growth, and just two more quarter of near-ZIRP rates is what it takes for the world to get it all together.   

Before The Fed statement, June was at 53% probabilty of a rate-hike...It collapsed after

 



 

Since The Fed's last "action" things have not quite gone as expected...



 

Additional headlines include:

*FED: MKT-BASED INFLATION COMPENSATION MEASURES REMAIN LOW
*FED SAYS RANGE OF DATA SHOW MORE STRENGTH IN LABOR MARKET
*FED: ECONOMY EXPECTED TO WARRANT ONLY GRADUAL RATE INCREASES
*FED FORECASTS SHOW SHALLOWER PACE OF RATE RISES IN 2017, 2018
*FED: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MODERATE DESPITE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
 

Some of the highlights from what is a quite dovish statement, which notes that the data is strong and yet the Fed is unable to hike rates:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft.
 
* * *
 
Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.
And here is why: the chickening out moment, it is the "global economy's" fault.

However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
Full redline comparison with the January statement below:



*  *  *

As a reminder, the last time we got a "hawkish, balanced" statement was October 2015... and this happened...
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 08:08:24 AM



Live blog and video of Fed decision and Janet Yellen press conference
March 16, 2016, 12:58 PM ET

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest-rate decision, as well as provide its dot plot and economic forecasts and hold a press conference with Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Follow along as MarketWatch live-blogs the proceedings, and watch the Yellen press conference live.

Read: Fed holds rates and sees only two hikes this year

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3:36 amStocks hold gains, dollar slipsby William WattsADD A COMMENT

Stocks are holding on to gains as Yellen wraps up. The S&P 500, which erased losses after the FOMC statement, is up 0.6% a  2,029, while the Dow is up 100 points.

Bonds rallied, sending yields lower, with the two-year dropping back below 0.9%, down 10 basis points, to trade at 0.8672%. The 10-year yield is off 3.89 basis points at 1.9311%.

The dollar took a big hit from the Fed’s dovish tone, with the ICE dollar index hitting a one-month low as the both the euro and the yen jumped.

The weaker dollar helped lift commoditeis, with gold soaring nearly $30 in electronic trade to more than $1,260 an ounce, while oil futures extended earlier gains to end the day with a nearly 6% rise.

3:32 amADD A COMMENT
And with that, the press conference is over.

3:31 amby Rex NuttingADD A COMMENT
The Fed isn’t considering dropping interest rates into negative territory, Yellen says in response to a hypothetical question. Europe and Japan have moved to negative interest rates in an attempt to provide more stimulus through monetary policy.

She emphasizes that the Fed has lots of tools it could turn to (such as further quantitative easing) before it would consider negative rates,

3:29 amby Rex NuttingADD A COMMENT
The Philips Curve is alive, Yellen says.

She says there is still a relationship between the level of slack in the labor markets and the inflation rate, although she says it now takes a large change in the unemployment rate to fuel very much inflation.

3:18 amADD A COMMENT
Yellen forced to go on defensive about Fed’s political leanings, because of this article about Gov. Brainard’s contribution to Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

“I want to start by saying that I’ve been involved for many years in the Federal Reserve system, and we are a nonpartisan, independent institution devoted to pursuing our Congressionally mandated objectives. And I have never seen a political views in any way influence the policy judgments that are made inside the Federal Reserve,” she said.

3:12 amby Rex NuttingADD A COMMENT
Most Americans aren’t as negative about the economy as sometimes portrayed, Yellen says. Consumer sentiment surveys aren’t at very low levels, reflecting the improvement in the labor market and in household balance sheets, she says.

3:09 amby Rex NuttingADD A COMMENT
There’s no evidence of a broad-based pickup in wages, Yellen says, which is evidence that the economy is not yet at full employment and that there are potential workers at the margins who are holding down wages.

3:08 amby Rex NuttingADD A COMMENT
The Fed declined to say whether it considers the risks to the economy as “balanced” or tilted toward the downside, Yellen said.

The so-called “bias” in the Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks used to be considered an important signal of its intentions, but the dot-plot has made it somewhat irrelevant. The Fed is on the path to higher rates.

3:03 amby Steve GoldsteinADD A COMMENT
Yellen is not willing to say that lower oil prices haven’t helped consumption.

“The typical, the average household in the United States with oil prices where they are now is probably benefiting around $1,000 a year. And so very detailed microdata that I have seen on household spending patterns suggest that there may be a link, as you would expect, from reduced amounts that people pay at the pump, to other spending like eating out for restaurant meals and other things,” she said.

3:02 amby Rex NuttingADD A COMMENT
Yellen says the Fed could raise rates at its next meeting, in April, even though there’s no scheduled press conference after that meeting.

She says every meeting is “live” in the sense that a rate hike could be decided, but until the Fed actually hikes rates during one of these in-between meetings, the markets will assume that the Fed will act only when it can explain itself afterward.

That means June, September and December.

 

2:59 amby Rex NuttingADD A COMMENT
The Fed isn’t surprised by the slowdown in China, but the slower growth in some emerging markets as well as Europe and Japan wasn’t entirely expected.
Still, the slowdown in rest of the world hasn’t changed the Fed’s view of the U.S. economy significantly
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 02:23:00 PM



M   Jean-Sebastien Jacques to Succeed Sam Walsh as Rio Tinto CEO
Fed Scales Back Rate-Rise Forecasts as Global Risks Remain
 Jana Randow
 jrandow
March 17, 2016 — 2:00 AM MYT Updated on March 17, 2016 — 4:34 AM MYT
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Janet Yellen's Statement in Two Minutes

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 Janet Yellen's Statement in Two Minutes
Yellen calls April a `live meeting' when asked about next hike
Kansas City Fed chief dissents in favor of 25-point rate rise
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Federal Reserve officials held off from raising borrowing costs and scaled back forecasts for how high interest rates will rise this year, citing the potential impact from weaker global growth and financial-market turmoil on the U.S. economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, the central bank said in a statement Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. The median of policy makers’ updated quarterly projections saw the rate at 0.875 percent at the end of 2016, implying two quarter-point increases this year, down from four forecast in December.
“You have seen a shift this time, in most participants assessments of the appropriate path for policy,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said at a press conference in Washington. “That largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth, for growth in the global economy outside the United States, and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads.”
Yields on Treasury securities fell following the Fed’s actions, with the rate on the 10-year note dropping to 1.91 percent at 4:25 p.m. in New York from 1.99 percent just before the announcement.

“The committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen,” the FOMC said in its statement. “However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks.”
Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented from the decision, preferring a quarter-point rate increase.
“April remains a live meeting,” Yellen said when asked about the timing of the next rate move. “There will be additional data on the labor market, and on various factors that pertain to inflation. So that’s certainly a live possibility.”
“The tone of the FOMC statement and accompanying economic projections was dovish,” Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economist at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York, said in a research note. The reference to global risks “pushes the Fed in the role of the world’s central bank. In this role, the Fed needs to let inflation in the U.S. surge to offset disinflation in the rest of the world.”
Weaker-than-forecast global growth has clouded the U.S. outlook and led investors to expect a slower pace of tightening since the Fed raised rates in December for the first time in almost a decade. Yellen said in February that market turbulence had “significantly” tightened financial conditions by pushing down stock prices, causing the dollar to strengthen and boosting some borrowing costs.
Moderate Growth
“Economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace,” with household spending gaining amid “soft” company investment and net exports, the Fed said. While inflation has “picked up in recent months,” market-based measures of inflation compensation are still low, the central bank said.
The median of Fed officials’ projections, known as the “dot plot,” saw the federal funds rate at 1.875 percent at the end of 2017, compared with 2.375 percent forecast in December. The end-2018 level fell to 3 percent, from 3.25 percent, with the longer-run projection at 3.25 percent, down from 3.5 percent.
Policy makers maintained their projections on how soon inflation will return to the Fed’s 2 percent target, while cutting their inflation forecast to 1.2 percent this year from 1.6 percent. Officials still see the preferred price gauge rising 1.9 percent in 2017 and 2 percent in 2018.
Officials maintained their forecast for a 4.7 percent U.S. unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of this year. The median projection for 2017 fell to 4.6 percent from 4.7 percent, and in 2018 to 4.5 percent from 4.7 percent. The rate stood at 4.9 percent in February.
“A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market,” the FOMC said.
The Fed reiterated that the “stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.”
Next Move
Economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted earlier this month put the probability of an April rate increase at 15 percent and chances of a June move at 42 percent. That compares to market-implied projections of 25 percent for April and 54 percent for June, according to pricing in fed funds futures as of Tuesday.
Fed officials have differed publicly about economic prospects, with Governor Lael Brainard on March 7 arguing for patience in tightening monetary policy while Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on the same day pointed to the “first stirrings” of inflation.
Yellen and her colleagues have singled out uncertainty over China’s outlook as a risk to U.S. growth.
The domestic U.S. economy has mostly been solid, however. Payroll gains have averaged 235,000 over the last six months as the jobless rate matched the Fed’s goal for maximum employment, though measures of long-term unemployment and wage growth suggest the labor market still has room to grow.
Some progress has also been made on the inflation side of the Fed’s dual mandate. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed targets at 2 percent annual gains, rose 1.3 percent in January from a year earlier, after 13 consecutive months with rises below 1 percent, owing to a slide in energy prices.
The separate consumer price index released Wednesday showed prices, excluding food and energy, rose by a greater-than-anticipated 0.3 percent in February from the previous month.
Oil prices have surged around 40 percent since mid-February, when the cost for a barrel of crude fell to about $26, the lowest since 2003.
Stocks, Currencies
U.S. stock markets, which had slumped by more than 10 percent by mid-February from the start of the year, have also regained ground, with the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index now down just 1.4 percent this year through Tuesday. Meanwhile the dollar, whose strength in 2015 hurt U.S. exports and dented growth, has slipped about 1.3 percent against a broad basket of currencies since Dec. 31.
The Fed’s tightening bias contrasts with aggressive easing abroad.
The European Central Bank unleashed another round of unprecedented stimulus last week that included a cut in a key interest rate further below zero.
In Tokyo, the Bank of Japan held fire on further stimulus Tuesday but laid the groundwork for additional easing after cutting its deposit rate to minus 0.1 percent in January.
China’s central bank cut the main interest rate to a record low in six successive reductions through October, and recently made another reduction to the required-reserve ratio for major banks
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 02:32:07 PM




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葉倫坦承通膨增溫是假象!大摩:Fed今年只會升1次
回應(0) 人氣(2730) 收藏(0) 2016/03/17 12:46
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-17 12:46:25 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)語調偏向鴿派,從聯準會(Fed)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen,見圖)的說法來看,最重要的理由就是核心通膨並沒有像數據顯現出來的那麼高。
FOMC不但將今(2016)年實質GDP成長率預估值從去年12月預估的2.4%下修至2.2%,眾所矚目的2016年通膨指標「核心個人消費支出(PCE)平減指數」預估值也維持在1.6%不變,無視1月核心PCE年增率已上升至1.7%的事實。
路透社報導,葉倫16日在會後記者會上指出,通膨最近幾個月的確有攀高跡象,這有部分是受到一些經常波動的暫時性因素推動、但長久來看影響不大。因此,葉倫坦承,雖然核心通膨等指標明顯上升,但她不確定這是否能延續下去。

市場原本認為,美國1月核心PCE指數年增1.7%、增幅創2014年7月新高,已逐漸逼近Fed設定的2%目標,若再不升息,恐怕有貨幣政策趕不上通膨、導致經濟過熱的疑慮。葉倫這番話,明顯是想降低通膨預期。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley,通稱大摩)相當贊同葉倫的看法。barron`s.com 16日報導,大摩發表研究報告指出,FOMC聲明強調,Fed會不會繼續升息,端看通膨是否合作;雖然核心PCE指數過去兩個月逐漸揚升,但這主要是拜去年同期基期較低之賜,預估接下來到今年年中為止,核心PCE指數應會開始趨緩。
FOMC最新貨幣政策聲明預估,今年底的利率預估中值落在0.875%,暗示Fed今年只會升兩碼,少於去年12月預測的四碼。
不過,大摩重申,雖然Fed今年希望增加升息次數,但假如核心PCE年增率一如該證券預期,從1月的1.7%一路趨緩至夏季,那麼Fed恐怕難以如願。大摩認為,今年Fed只會升息一次,而時間點會落在12月份。
華爾街日報報導,芝加哥交易所集團(CME Group)的聯邦基金期貨數據顯示,投資人在FOMC發布聲明後預估,4月的升息機率只有12%、低於聲明發布前的26%;6月的升息機率也由稍早的52%下降至38%,12月機率從82%降至69%。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 02:33:08 PM
 



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字級設定: 小 中 大 特
FED為何不升息?葉倫:薪資增幅尚未出現持續走高
回應(0) 人氣(563) 收藏(0) 2016/03/17 10:26
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-17 10:26:51 記者 賴宏昌 報導
聯準會(FED)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen;見圖)16日在記者會上表示,聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)決議維持資產負債表上的龐大長期有價證券規模、藉此維繫寬鬆的金融狀況並降低重大負面衝擊降臨時須將聯邦基金利率降回零的風險。FOMC 16日以通膨仍低於2%目標為由、宣布將聯邦基金利率維持在0.25-0.5%。
葉倫指出,美國非自願兼差人數依舊處於偏高水準、薪資增幅也尚未出現持續走高的跡象。她指出,美國企業投資依舊疲軟、部分可能是因為低油價導致鑽油活動降溫。此外,美國淨出口因外國經濟增長趨緩、美元升值效應猶存而偏弱。
葉倫預期低油價以及美元升值效應將持續壓抑消費者物價整體走勢、預期2-3年內通膨才會回升至2%。她提到,部分以調查所得到的長期通膨預期處於歷史低檔。

美國密西根大學2月調查的未來5年通膨預期自1月的2.7%降至2.5%、平1970年代末期開始統計以來最低紀錄。美國2月排除石油產品不計的進口物價年減2.9%、連續第15個月呈現萎縮、創2001年4月至2002年11月以來最長萎縮紀錄!
葉倫指出,受生產力成長率低迷、美國人放慢成家速度以及海外因素的影響,中性(不鬆、不緊)名目聯邦基金利率目前處於歷史低檔。
Thomson Reuters報導,葉倫16日表示她的確看到就業市場全面轉好跡象、但對於薪資沒有跟著成長感到有點訝異!此外,葉倫還提到,以目前的油價來計算,美國一般家庭一年大約可以省下1千美元左右的油錢,但截至目前為止家庭支出尚未出現應有的強度。
美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)統計顯示,截至3月8日為止當週美元淨多單金額自前一週的74.5億美元降至68.8億美元、11週以來第10度呈現縮減。CFTC統計顯示,日圓投機淨多單部位自此前一週的59,625口擴增至64,333口、再創8年以來新高。
葉倫夫婿、2001年諾貝爾經濟學獎共同得主George A. Akerlof曾說,「菲利浦曲線(Phillips curve)」可能是總體經濟關係當中最重要的。MarketWatch報導,葉倫16日表示菲利浦曲線理論(失業率下滑將推動物價、薪資走高)依舊有效,只是現在得看到失業率進一步下滑才能創造出相同的通膨率。
FED 3月7日公布,美國2月勞動市場狀況指數(Labor Market Conditions Index;LMCI)報-2.4、較1月大減1.6點,創2009年6月(-2.9)以來新低,連續第4個月走低。
美國2月民間整體時薪平均年增幅連續第2個月走跌,自1月的2.5%降至2.2%、創2015年6月以來最低增幅。平均週薪年增率自1月的2.5%大跌至1.6%、創2013年12月以來最低增幅!2月平均週薪月減6.11美元、創2006年開始統計以來最大減額!
2015年第4季美國生產力成長率(美國非農業企業每位受薪員工的每小時實質經濟產出)年率報-2.2%、創2014年第1季(-3.1%)以來最差紀錄。2015年美國生產力成長率報0.7%、創2013年(0.0%)以來新低,遠低於1947-2015年的長期平均值(2.2%);2011-2015年平均值為0.5%、創1978-1982年(0.3%)以來最低5年均值;2007-2015年平均值也僅有1.2%。生產力欲振乏力意味著美國實質(經通膨因素調整後)薪資增幅難以顯著上揚、同時也將令企業獲利面臨壓力。
FRED網站顯示,「未來五年之五年期預期通膨率(5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate;簡稱:5y5y)」3月15日報1.65%;2月11日報1.42%、創2009年3月10日(1.3%)以來新低。值得注意的是,自2003年開始統計以來,這項指標只有在2007-2009年經濟衰退期間低於1.70%。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 02:34:10 PM




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字級設定: 小 中 大 特
FED偏鴿派、到底在說啥?打壓強勢美元才是真正目的
回應(0) 人氣(883) 收藏(0) 2016/03/17 09:21
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-17 09:21:37 記者 陳苓 報導
美國聯準會(FED)態度趨向鴿派,暗示今年升息次數減半,由四次減為兩次。有分析師認為,美元過強導致全球金融過於緊縮,FED偏向鴿派的真正目的是要打壓美元。
巴倫(Barronˋs)網站、今日美國報16日報導,Morgan Stanley Investment Management固定收益投資組合經理人Jim Caron指出,看看美元走勢就知道FED動機。FED發布聲明後,華爾街日報美元指數(The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index)下跌1%至87.59點,創去年10月以來新低。
Caron表示,FED提到「全球經濟和金融發展」出現風險,其實指的就是美元。過去20個月來,FED貿易加權美元指數狂飆24%,導致油價重挫、垃圾債狂瀉、新興市場疲弱。如今美元轉弱可減少傷害,風險資產將再受歡迎。他建議買進垃圾債、投資等級債券、以及新興市場的美元計價債。

他說,FED限制美元升幅,以解決全球金融困境;未來美元將成焦點,美元轉強導致金融市場趨緊,美元放軟可緩和情勢。儘管FED兩大職責為就業和通膨,不包括管理美元走勢,PAAMCO信貸策略師Putri Pascualy說,要是金融情況過於緊縮、美元漲幅過大,終會衝擊勞動和通膨,因此FED聚焦美元並無不妥。
FED打貶美元奏效、美元相對於歐元、日圓雙雙走低。嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,16日歐元兌美元強升1.05%、報1.1226;盤中一度升至1.1242,為2月15日以來盤中新高。16日美元兌日圓貶值0.50%、報112.56;一度貶至112.29,為3月9日以來盤中新低。
MoneyDJ新聞17日報導,聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)16日結束為期兩天的會議後將聯邦基金利率維持在0.25-0.50%不變,而央行官員對2016年底的利率預估中值則落在0.875%,暗示Fed今年只會升兩碼,少於去年12月預測的四碼。
根據聲明,FOMC認為,緩慢地調整貨幣政策立場,可讓經濟溫和擴張,就業指標也可持續改善。不過,全球經濟與金融動態仍持續構成風險。至於Fed對眾所矚目的2016年通膨指標「核心個人消費支出(PCE)平減指數」預估值則依舊維持在1.6%不變。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 19, 2016, 06:17:20 AM



Bernanke: Monetary policy 'reaching its limits'
Jacob Pramuk   | @jacobpramuk
3 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Monetary policy in the United States and other developed countries "is reaching its limits," but the Federal Reserve has not yet run out of responses to a potential slowdown, former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote Friday.

In a blog post for the Brookings Institution, he argued a "balanced monetary-fiscal response" would better boost the economy than monetary tools alone. Bernanke assessed policy options for the Fed, saying negative interest rates hold "modest benefits" but are unlikely.

"I assess the probability that this tool will be used in the U.S. as quite low for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, it would probably be worthwhile for the Fed to conduct further analysis of this option," Bernanke wrote.
Ben Bernanke
Katie Kramer | CNBC
Ben Bernanke
The U.S. central bank this week held its target short-term interest rate range at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. The Fed indicated it could hike twice this year, but as rates remain below historical averages, many market watchers have wondered what the Fed could do to respond to another potential slowdown.

Bernanke said the Fed could use forward guidance, or "talking down" longer-term rates while convincing markets that short-term rates will remain low. If economic weakness warranted a stronger response, the Fed may consider quantitative easing.


A specialist works at the New York Stock Exchange on March 16, 2016, as the decision of the Federal Reserve appears on a TV screen.
Market's message to the Fed: We don't believe you
$100 dollar bills
Battle is swirling around fate of the $100 bill

But more bond-buying could spook markets and may not prove as effective as when it was used after the financial crisis, Bernanke argued. The Fed may then mull following central banks in Europe and Japan to negative interest rates.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank had not "actively" discussed the policy move.

"What I would like to make clear is that this is not actively a subject that we are considering or discussing. The committee continues to feel that we are on a course where the economy is improving and inflation is moving back up," Yellen said.

Bernanke said market aversion to negative rates seems "overdone." He noted that the policy would bring only "modest benefits" with "manageable costs."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 19, 2016, 06:19:23 AM



Fed's Bullard: Low rates may be causing low inflation
Everett Rosenfeld   | @Ev_Rosenfeld
3 Hours Ago
Breaking News
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James Bullard, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
David Orrell | CNBC
James Bullard, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
This is a breaking news story. Please check back for further updates.

Low rates may be causing low inflation, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard theorized in Friday remarks.

Bullard, who is a voting member of this year's Federal Open Market Committee, suggested in prepared remarks for a policy conference in Frankfurt, Germany that the current period of low interest rates and low inflation could potentially persist for a long period of time. Furthermore, raising rates could conceivably increase inflation, he said.

He didn't conclude this argument was correct, but suggested it deserved further analysis.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve president also discussed the normal argument for raising rates, saying the FOMC's policy remains extreme, labor markets are close to normal, and inflation is close to the Fed's target levels.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 19, 2016, 06:54:46 AM



Weekend Reading: Did The Fed Just Cage The Bear?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/18/2016 16:45 -0400

Bear Market China Crude Crude Oil Doug Kass Federal Reserve Janet Yellen John Hussman Market Conditions Monetary Policy recovery Technical Analysis Tyler Durden Volatility


 
inShare
 
 
Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

 

AAA-WeekendReading-Yellen-Bear

The past two week’s have been full of Central Bank interventions starting with the ECB last week and culminating with a more accommodative Fed and BOJ interventions this week.

As stated earlier this week:

“The Fed currently finds itself in a tough spot from a “data dependent” standpoint. Last December, when the Fed Funds rate was increased, the Fed discussed the potential for further rate hikes in 2016 as inflation and employment data strengthened. With that data improving, along with the strong rebound in the financial markets, the Fed runs the risk of losing credibility if they DO NOT hike rates again on Wednesday OR give a very strong indication they will do so at the next meeting.” 
I was wrong. The Fed jumped into the boat with the ECB this week by not only ignoring the recent spate of stronger employment and inflationary pressures, but by lowering economic forecasts and reducing the number of rate hikes this year from 4 to 2. This was, in effect, “Yellen’s Bazooka.” Given the more “accommodative posture,” it is not surprising the financial markets decide to jump into the boat with her.

With the markets currently trading above the 200-dma, the next big resistance levels will be the downtrend that started last summer as shown below. Not surprisingly, this rally is occurring with both fundamental and economic data substantially weaker which continues to restrain the Fed from a further tightening of monetary policy. Or, “bad news” is “good news” for now.

SP500-MarketUpdate-031716

With that, this week’s reading list takes a look at various the Fed’s recent actions and whether Yellen has been able to “cage the bear” for now.

1) Janet Yellen Still Operating In Denial by Stephen Gandel via Forbes

“On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep rates where they were for another month, and indicated that it was only likely to raise rates twice in the next year and four times in 2017. The change brings the Fed’s own rate expectations closer in line to what the market was predicting before this week’s FOMC meeting.
 
Nonetheless, the Fed has a history of tricking it self into believing the economy is stronger than it really is—something that has happened a lot during this recovery. And there is reason to believe it is doing so again. If that’s the case, the Fed could be living in denial about its ability to raise interest rates.”
Fed-rate-path-031716

But Also Read: FOMC Doesn’t Believe Own Data by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners
And Read: Is The Fed’s Tightening Cycle Almost Over? by Matthew Klein via FT AlphaVille
Don’t Miss: Yellen’s March Madness by Macro Man
More: Was There A G-20 Accord Or What Spooked The Fed by Guy Haselmann via ZH
Interesting: Currency War Relief From Fed by Randall Forsyth via Barron’s
2)  Private Sector Debt & Slowing Economy by IronMan via Political Calculations

“The U.S. Federal Reserve released its latest Flow of Funds report for the U.S. economy on 10 March 2016. Let’s run through a short checklist to see what it tells us of the relative health of the U.S. economy….
 
Falling or negative acceleration of private sector debt?
Check.
 
Falling real GDP growth rate?
Check.
 
Let’s go to the chart….”
acceleration-private-debt-in-US-2006-01-thru-2015-12

But Also Read: Stock Crash Coming by Ken Goldberg via The Street
And Read: Earnings Estimates Are Still Falling by Eric Bush via GaveKal Research
Further Reading: Recessions Lead To Prosperity by John Tamny via Forbes
Interesting: Economic Growth Reaching Limits by Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World
3) Markets Are Quiet…Too Quiet by Russ Koesterich via Blackrock

Over the past four weeks, stocks have staged an impressive rebound from their February lows. The equity rebound of the past month is a classic “relief rally,” where investors are relieved conditions are not as bad as they previously feared.
This one has been partly predicated on hopes that China is stabilizing, which helps explain the sharp rise in commodity prices given that China is the biggest commodities consumer.
Unfortunately, signs of real improvement in China are scant. While the U.S. appears to be stabilizing, the Chinese economy remains challenged.
Given the still uneven pace of global growth and tighter financial market conditions, volatility may too be low. This, in turn, suggests the potential for a rise in volatility — which would imply another bout of stocks selling off.
Also Read: Things Aren’t That Bad by Philip Van Doorn via MarketWatch
But Also Read: World Headed For Bear Market by Nomi Prins via Daily Reckoning
Interesting: Fear Indicator Surges To Record High by Josh Lukeman via ZH
CSFB-FearGauge

4) El-Erian: The Road We Are On Is Coming To An End by Ben Moshinsky via BI

“Policymakers will either watch helplessly as the world sinks into a mire of financial volatility and political collapse, or they’ll find a way to unlock the piles of corporate cash sitting on the sidelines, reinvigorating growth.
 
At the moment, it’s a coin flip. ‘The road we’re on is coming to an end,'”
Also Read: A Look At The Latest JOLTS Report by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge
5) Is The Oil Correction Over by Marc Chandler via Real Clear Markets

“The losses in the May sweet light crude oil futures today have not done much technical damage to the near-term outlook. The contract has been struggled most of the last week to sustain gains above $40.
 
A break of last week’s low of $38 a barrel could be an early indication of the three-legged correction since mid-January has run its course.
 
The first downside target is near $36.75 and then $35.60. Note that the May contract is set to close below the five-day moving average (~$39.40) for the first time since February 24. The RSI is turning, and the MACDs may turn lower in the coming days.“
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 19, 2016, 06:57:43 AM



Did Jim Bullard Just Signal "Sell"?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/18/2016 15:10 -0400



 
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Flip-flopping Fed President Jim Bullard has done it again. Having helped spark the recent ramp in mid-Feb with his uber-dovish comments that "tightening was unwise," he now expresses his hawkish opinion - with stocks back nearer record highs - that it would be "prudent policy to edge rates toward normal levels." Is that a "sell'?

 



 

Markets don't care for now - whatever he says, it's a buy!
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 19, 2016, 03:28:00 PM


Ben S. Bernanke | March 18, 2016 11:00am

What tools does the Fed have left? Part 1: Negative interest rates
Federal Reserve System
Banking
Financial Institutions
 fed
The U.S. economy is currently growing and creating jobs, a situation I hope and expect will continue. We can’t rule out the possibility, though, that at some point in the next few years our economy will slow, perhaps significantly. How would the Federal Reserve respond? What tools remain in the monetary toolbox? In this and a subsequent post I’ll discuss some policy options the Fed might consider, focusing first on negative interest rates. Readers should also be aware of the March 21 conference at the Hutchins Center at Brookings on the tools remaining to monetary and fiscal policymakers should the economy deteriorate.

To anticipate, I’ll conclude in these two posts that the Fed is not out of ammunition, and that monetary policy could help cushion a possible future slowdown. That said, there are signs that monetary policy in the United States and other industrial countries is reaching its limits, which makes it even more important that the collective response to a slowdown involve other policies—particularly fiscal policy. A balanced monetary-fiscal response would both be more effective and also reduce the need to use unconventional monetary tools.

First steps for easing policy

Given where we are today, how would the Fed respond to a hypothetical economic slowdown? Presumably the central bank’s first response, after dropping any plans to raise rates further, would be to cut short-term interest rates, perhaps to zero. Unfortunately, with the fed funds rate (the Fed’s target short-term rate) now between ¼ and ½ percent, and likely to remain relatively low, moving to zero provides much less firepower than in the past. For comparison, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s monetary policy-making body, cut the short-term interest rate by 6.8 percentage points in the 1990-91 recession and its aftermath, by 5.5 percentage points in the 2001 recession, and by 5.1 percentage points at the beginning of the Great Recession in 2007-2008.

With the fed funds rate near zero, the FOMC could next turn to forward guidance, that is, to communicating to markets and the public about the Fed’s policy plans. If the Fed can convince market participants that short-term rates will stay low for some time, it can “talk down” longer-term rates, such as mortgage rates, which are typically more important to consumers, businesses, and investors.[1] (When central bankers get together over a ginger ale, they like to call these efforts “open-mouth operations.”) The evidence suggests that forward guidance can be quite powerful, and if the amount of extra policy support needed is not too great, rate cuts plus guidance might be all that is needed.

But what if not? The Fed could resume quantitative easing (QE), that is, purchases of assets (typically longer-term assets) for the Fed’s portfolio, financed by the creation of reserves in the banking system. Like forward guidance, the goal of QE is to reduce longer-term interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending. It appears to work through at least two channels. First, the Fed’s purchases push up the price and (equivalently) push down the yield of the assets it buys. That effect is transmitted through the system as investors who sold the assets shift into others (such as stocks or corporate bonds). Second, the Fed’s asset purchases can help signal its intention to keep rates low for a long time. [2] For more on QE and its effects, see here.

The Fed employed QE from late 2008 until October 2014, and the policy helped support the U.S. recovery and reduce the risk of price deflation. Other major central banks are using it now. But the FOMC might be reluctant to turn to it again. It’s hard to calibrate, and communicating about it is difficult (as we learned in 2013 when Fed talk about ending QE led to a “taper tantrum” in financial markets). It’s also possible that a new round might be less helpful than before.

For these reasons, before undertaking new QE, the Fed might want to consider other options. Negative interest rates are one possibility.

Negative interest rates: general considerations

Several central banks, including the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, have implemented negative interest rates. In practice this means that, instead of receiving interest on the reserves they hold with the central bank, banks are charged a fee on reserves above a threshold. The expectation is that, to avoid the fee, banks will shift to other short-term assets, which drives down the yields on those assets as well, possibly to negative levels. Ultimately, the efforts of banks and other investors to avoid negative returns on the shortest-term assets should lead to declines in a broad range of longer-term interest rates, such as mortgage rates and the yields on corporate bonds. (Generally, though, we’d expect these longer-term rates to remain positive, because of the extra compensation that investors demand for bearing credit risk and for tying up their money for longer periods.) By putting downward pressure on the interest rates most relevant to borrowing and spending decisions, the introduction of negative interest rates should work through the same channels as more standard monetary policies.

The idea of negative interest rates strikes many people as odd. Economists are less put off by it, perhaps because they are used to dealing with “real” (or inflation-adjusted) interest rates, which are often negative. Since the real interest rate is the sticker-price (nominal) interest rate minus inflation, it’s negative whenever inflation exceeds the nominal rate. Figure 1 shows the real fed funds rate from 1954 to the present, with gray bars marking recessions.[3] As you can see, the real fed funds rate has been negative fairly often, including most of the period since 2009. (It reached a low of -3.8 percent in September 2011.) Many of these negative spells occurred during periods of recession; this is no accident, since during recessions the Fed typically lowers interest rates, both real and nominal, in an effort to spur recovery.

negative interest rates

For most of the period reflected in Figure 1, the Fed had no need to implement a negative interest rate in order to ease policy: Until 2008, the nominal fed funds rate was always well above zero, so that ordinary interest rate cuts remained feasible when needed. Since late 2008, however, the fed funds rate has been barely above zero much of the time, so that achieving further reductions in the real funds rate would have required taking the nominal rate negative. In principle at least, how much extra pop could this policy have delivered? If during this period the Fed had decided (and been able) to lower the short-term nominal interest rate to, say, -0.5 percent, then it presumably could have achieved a real fed funds rate half a percentage point lower as well. For example, instead of being -3.8 percent in September 2011, the real fed funds rate might have been around -4.3 percent, with commensurate declines in other interest rates. As you can see, the amount of extra stimulus generated by this further reduction in rates would not have been negligible by any means (roughly, it would have corresponded to two extra quarter-point rate cuts in more normal times), but neither would it likely have been a game-changer.

Negative interest rates: practical issues
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 19, 2016, 03:29:14 PM


Negative interest rates: practical issues

In August 2010, Federal Reserve staff prepared a memo for the FOMC evaluating the likely effects of cutting the interest rate paid on bank reserves to zero or below. That memo, recently released by the Fed, was lukewarm about negative interest rates for mostly practical reasons. I’ll repeat and address a few points made by the staff, with, of course, the benefit of five years’ hindsight.

Legal and operational constraints

Some of the staff’s concerns were operational (software might need to be modified to handle negative rates, the demand for currency might increase, etc.). These don’t seem that worrisome to me. Of greater concern is the basic legal issue: Does the Fed have the authority to impose a negative interest rate on the reserves banks hold with it? [4] (I don’t pretend to any legal expertise on this matter and my comments should be treated accordingly.)

Outside observers often do not seem to appreciate the legal constraints the Fed faces (regarding the assets it can purchase, for example), which are generally much tighter than those faced by other major central banks. In this instance, the law says that the Fed can pay banks interest on their reserves, but it is not immediately clear whether that authority extends to “paying” negative interest. If it does not, an alternative the Fed might consider is to use its authority to charge banks a fee for accepting their reserves—something it already does for providing other services. A fee on reserves would be essentially equivalent to a negative interest rate. A possible problem with this strategy is that, per the Federal Reserve Act, the Fed’s fees for services must reflect, “over the long run,” the actual costs of providing those services. Presumably the direct cost to the Fed of holding banks’ reserves is low. A separate authorization allows the Fed to charge banks for its costs of supervision and regulation; possibly a fee on reserves could be subsumed under that heading. In short, as pointed out by Chair Yellen while speaking to Congress in February, there remain some legal issues to resolve before the Fed could implement a negative interest rate. For the rest of this post I’ll assume these away.

How negative?

The fundamental economic constraint on how negative interest rates can go is that, beyond a certain point, people will just choose to hold currency, which pays zero interest. (It’s not convenient or safe for most people to hold large amounts of currency, but at a sufficiently negative interest rate, banks or other institutions could profit from holding cash, for a fee, on behalf of customers.) Based on calculations of how much it would cost banks to store large quantities of currency in their vaults, the Fed staff concluded in 2010 that the interest rate paid on bank reserves in the U.S. could not practically be brought lower than about -0.35 percent.[5] Moreover, for various reasons, the 0.35 percentage points would not be fully reflected as declines in other short-term and longer-term rates, they argued. They concluded that the monetary policy benefit of a negative rate would likely be small.

Since then, however, several countries have implemented negative policy rates below the putative limit of -0.35 percent without triggering massive currency hoarding. For example, Switzerland’s policy rate is now at -0.75 percent, Sweden’s at -0.50 percent. Negative rates have even spread to longer-term securities; in Germany, government debt carries a negative rate out to maturities of eight years. The lack of currency hoarding in Europe is intriguing and suggests that the negative rates tool might be more powerful than thought. I am skeptical, though, that U.S. rates could go as negative as in Switzerland or Sweden, at least not without causing significant disruptions to the functioning of some key financial markets and institutions (see below). And a general conundrum is that central banks need market participants to believe negative rates will be in place for a long time for there to be much effect on economically important long-term rates; but if market participants believe that, they’ll have even more incentive to buy vault space and pay the other costs involved in hoarding cash.

Effects on money market funds

There has been much discussion recently about negative rates’ effects on bank profitability, but the 2010 Fed memo was more concerned about money market funds (MMFs), which play a larger role in the U.S. than in Europe or Japan. Like banks, U.S. MMFs have traditionally promised their investors the ability to withdraw at least the full amount that they’ve invested. Not making good on this promise is known as “breaking the buck.” (When a fund did this in 2008 due to losses on its Lehman Brothers commercial paper, it started a highly destructive run on the fund industry.) The Fed staff memo expressed concern that, facing zero or negative short-term interest rates, MMFs could break the buck or shut down as their management fees dried up. [6] MMFs are important providers of short-term funding for both banks and nonfinancial firms; and, although in the long run the cash that flows through MMFs would find some other channel, in the short run a squeeze on MMFs could be disruptive.

Events since the staff memo was written have reduced, but not eliminated, these concerns. MMFs used to be able to maintain the appearance of stability by displaying a constant net asset value of at least $1.00 per share, but Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reforms announced in 2014 (set to be fully implemented this October) have changed that. Starting in October, MMFs will have to display floating net asset values with four decimal places, except for government MMFs (funds with 99.5% or more of their holdings in cash or government securities) and prime funds focused on retail depositors (as opposed to institutional investors). With floating net asset values, MMFs will no longer effectively be promising to pay investors back dollar for dollar, that is, “breaking the buck” is no longer an issue.  However, as mentioned, not all funds must adopt the new approach; those that do not could still be potentially rendered unstable by consistently negative returns on the assets they hold.

Effects on banks and their profits

What about banks? A concern often heard about negative rates in Europe and Japan starts with the presumption that banks are unwilling or unable to pass negative rates on to their depositors. Consequently, it is argued, negative rates for reserves and possibly other assets create a profit squeeze for banks, which could be a problem if it prevents banks from lending normally.

Of course, banks have been dealing with a low-interest-rate environment for a while now, and short-term rates going negative would not help. It seems implausible, though, that modestly negative short-term rates would have large incremental effects on bank profitability or lending. Contrary to the simple story, most U.S. bank funding does not come from small depositors, but from wholesale funding markets, large institutional depositors, and foreign depositors, all of whom would presumably accept a marginally negative rate if the alternative were holding currency.[7] On the asset side of banks’ balance sheets, the interest rates on loans and other investments would almost certainly remain in positive territory, so that banks would continue to enjoy positive interest margins. Finally, to the extent that banks in general were not able to pass on the negative rate to their sources of funding, in a competitive credit market the extra cost would be borne at least in part by borrowers and not just banks. (Though if the central bank’s negative interest rate does not pass through fully to the cost of credit, the benefits of the policy are reduced.)

Disruptions to some financial markets

Fed staff also worried, in 2010, about the effects of negative rates on the functioning of some key financial markets. Notably, the federal funds rate, which the FOMC targets, is determined in the market for overnight loans among banks. Because banks today hold very large quantities of reserves (a residue of QE), they have little need to borrow reserves from each other, with the result that activity in the fed funds market has declined dramatically. For a number of reasons, activity in that market would likely fall still further if rates paid on reserves went to zero or to slightly negative levels, raising the possibility that the FOMC would not have a market-determined value of the federal funds rate to use as a policy target. Were that to happen, though, it would not be particularly problematic for the FOMC to switch the rate it targets; it could even set policy in terms of the interest rate it pays (or receives) on reserves.

Conclusion on negative interest rates

The anxiety about negative interest rates seen recently in the media and in markets seems to me to be overdone. Logically, when short-term rates have been cut to zero, modestly negative rates seem a natural continuation; there is no clear discontinuity in the economic and financial effects of, say, a 0.1 percent interest rate and a -0.1 percent rate. Moreover, a negative interest rate on bank reserves does not imply that the most economically relevant rates, like mortgage rates or corporate borrowing rates, would be negative; in the US, they almost certainly would not be. Negative rates have some costs, in their effects on money market funds for example, but these ought to be manageable. On the other hand, the potential benefits of negative rates are limited, because rates that are too negative would trigger hoarding of currency. Although the European experience suggests that rates can be more negative than the Fed staff estimated in 2010, I don’t think U.S. rates could approach the extreme values seen in Switzerland or Sweden without becoming counterproductive.

Overall, as a tool of monetary policy, negative interest rates appear to have both modest benefits and manageable costs; and I assess the probability that this tool will be used in the U.S. as quite low for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, it would probably be worthwhile for the Fed to conduct further analysis of this option. We can imagine a hypothetical future situation in which the Fed has cut the fed funds rate to zero and used forward guidance to try to talk down longer-term interest rates. Suppose some additional accommodation is desired, but not enough to justify a new round of quantitative easing, with all its difficulties of calibration and communication. In that scenario, a policy of modestly negative interest rates might be a reasonable compromise between no action and rolling out the big QE gun.

[1] Forward guidance comes in a number of varieties. It can be qualitative, with few specifics (as when the FOMC promised to keep short-term rates low “for a considerable period”) or quantitative, giving numerically explicit circumstances that would prompt a policy change. It can be time-dependent (specifying a date, as when the FOMC in August, 2011 promised to keep rates low “at least through mid-2013”) or state-dependent, tying future policy actions directly to conditions in the economy.

[2] In a variant of quantitative easing, the Maturity Extension Program of 2011, the Fed bought longer-term assets but sold shorter-term assets. This policy, known informally as “Operation Twist,” allowed the Fed to put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates without expanding its total assets holdings.

[3] Here we define the real fed funds rate as the effective fed funds rate minus the year-over-year CPI-U. There are many possible definitions, but they all tell the same story.

[4] This Wall Street Journal article discusses some of the legal issues.

[5] Another potential constraint arises from the fact that the Fed is not allowed to pay interest to the government-sponsored enterprises, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, even though the GSEs hold reserves at the Fed. Presumably, if the Fed relies on the interest-on-reserves law to charge interest to banks, the GSEs would be exempt. If so, they would have an incentive to accept money from banks for redeposit at the Fed at zero interest, an arbitrage that would reduce the ability of the Fed to maintain a negative rate.

[6] See here for another Fed memo—this one from December, 2008—estimating the effect of a zero-interest-rate environment on money market funds.

[7] According to the FDIC, half (49.3%) of all U.S. commercial bank deposits are insured, which amounts to just over one-third (37.6%) of total liabilities. Presumably almost all small retail deposits are insured, so that this figure is a ceiling for banks’ reliance on such deposits.


Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 19, 2016, 03:46:32 PM



2016年03月18日 13:01 PM
市场对鸽派美联储押注过甚
工银国际研究部联席主管 程实 为英国《金融时报》中文网撰稿
 

对于美联储3月会议而言,耶伦“怎么说”要比“怎么做”更加重要。由于议息会议之前,期货市场隐含的3月加息概率极低,因此,市场更加关注美联储的前瞻指引。

事实上,美联储在行动上的确没有意外之举,3月17日凌晨宣布维持基准利率在0.25-0.5%区间不变,并将预期加息路径下移。值得注意的是,尽管会议声明和耶伦言论整体中性,并未释放太多的确定信息,但汇市、股市和大宗商品均表现亢奋,表明市场对无偏事实产生了有偏认知。美联储未亮牌,市场已“All in”,市场表现出对鸽派的极度偏爱,这反而加大了未来“失望”的可能。

在美国经济主要数据接连超预期、国际金融市场动荡有所缓和、外部掣肘因素渐次削弱、潜在通胀压力有所上升、内部风格渐趋传统审慎的背景下,美联储未来的加息路径将动态调整,而政策风格将比市场想象的更加鹰派。

从行动上看,美联储应时而变,如预期般放松了政策弓弦,3月议息会议维持基准利率不变,预测点阵显示,2016年加息次数从2015年12月暗示的4次降为2次。从言论上看,美联储传递出的信息是较为模糊的,并未给出明确的政策指引。一方面,会议声明确定了政策方向,但未确定政策力度。美联储肯定了美国经济的稳健复苏,除工业和工资增长等少数数据略显颓势外,美国主要经济指标均表现有力,这奠定了货币紧缩的物质基础。


另一方面,耶伦言论格外谨慎,本质上并未给出明确指引。她认为:第一,美联储未来的加息依旧是一个相机抉择的过程,美联储政策“没有预设路径”,未来4月、6月、7月、9月、11月和12月都有展开行动的可能,但也不确定;第二,美国经济整体复苏稳健,外部不确定性阶段性缓解但并未根本接触,实体经济既有下行风险,也有上行风险;第三,近期通胀数据一直处于高端,但也不能由此认为核心通胀率还会进一步上升;第四,美联储希望保持谨慎,但并不希望行动落后于曲线;第五,利率预测并非预设计划或承诺。

由此可见,耶伦言论非鹰非鸽,由于模糊而显得无偏和中性,这暗示,美联储内部尚未形成统一意见,因此,耶伦表态格外小心。尽管言论本身是无偏的,但市场却始终对美联储放松政策充满迫切的期待,所以,市场对此的解读为,不鹰就是鸽,汇市、股市和大宗商品市场受这种无偏认知的影响,表现亢奋。

从格林斯潘到伯南克再到耶伦,美联储近三任主席均给人以偏好宽松的印象,美联储在过去几年也的确表现得非常鸽派。伯南克为拯救危机中的美国经济出台了一系列超常规货币宽松政策,并在2010-2011年全球加息大潮中始终保持着零利率不变;而耶伦继任美联储主席后,在退出QE和首次加息上表现的格外谨慎。但决定美联储政策风格的,不是人,而是趋势。

美联储常年表现像只老鸽,未来表现则可能像只雏鹰。从政策方向看,美联储越是酝酿许久才改变货币政策,越是不会轻易改变政策方向,美国产出缺口已接近消失,重回宽松不仅不会带来任何增长效应,还会凭空加大通胀效应,长期中得不偿失,因此,任何关于降息、QE4或负利率的猜测都是不专业、不现实的,美国经济基本面早已符合持续加息的条件,政策制定者只要保有基本的专业理性,就不会走任何形式的回头路
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 20, 2016, 02:17:15 PM



Weaken the dollar — the dovish Fed’s hidden agenda?
Published: March 20, 2016 12:08 PM GMT+8

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Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged the importance of the dollar in policy making at her post-FOMC meeting news conference Wednesday. — Reuters pic
Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged the importance of the dollar in policy making at her post-FOMC meeting news conference Wednesday. — Reuters pic
WASHINGTON, March 20 — In lowering its likely path of future interest rate increases this week, the Federal Reserve pushed down the dollar, perhaps aiming to ease strains caused by clashing monetary policies.

Economists and investors alike were surprised when the US central bank announced Wednesday that it only sees two rate hikes in 2016, half the number it envisioned in December, a more accommodative stance in exiting crisis-era policy.

The Fed also left its benchmark federal funds rate at a historically low 0.25-0.50 per cent, as expected, after raising it in December for the first time in nine years.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee “backed off on the number of expected rate hikes this year. Why, I really don’t know,” said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

“If you look at the recent data, and the members are supposed to be data-dependent, it is clear that whatever economic issues concern them, it cannot be US economic weakness.”

While spotlighting its more optimistic view on the US economy, the Fed also broadly cited “risks” from the global economic slowdown and financial market turmoil.


 
Several analysts and economists interpreted the language as an effort by the Fed to rein in the dollar’s gains against other currencies. A strong dollar weighs on import prices, thus keeping US inflation in check, and encourages volatility on the financial markets.

Interest rates are on an upward bound in the United States, which attracts investors seeking higher yields and boosts the greenback.

The opposite is true in a number of other central banks, such as in the eurozone and Japan, where authorities are redoubling their efforts to be more accommodative and revive their sluggish economies.

The stark divergence in monetary policies — between negative rates on one side and the potential for hikes on the other — had underpinned the attractiveness of the greenback all through 2015.

The dollar, which gained nearly 10 per cent last year against a basket of currencies, has fallen about three per cent since early March.

Dollar key to Fed puzzle

For the economists at Barclays Research, “the Fed has become increasingly responsive to changes in financial conditions” and too much of that could lead to “policy paralysis.”

“Although not exclusively a story about the relationship between Fed policy and the foreign exchange value of the dollar... we believe it clearly illustrates the conundrum,” they said in a client note.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged the importance of the dollar in policy making at her post-FOMC meeting news conference Wednesday.

“Movements in exchange rates... are a factor that any country needs to take into account in deciding what is the appropriate stance of monetary policy,” Yellen said.

But, questioned about influence from the divergence in monetary policies, she insisted: “It does not mean that monetary, US monetary policy is somehow constrained in a way that makes it impossible for our monetary policy to diverge from policies abroad.”

Kit Juckes, a foreign-exchange analyst at Societe Generale, said the Fed “seems committed to driving inflation expectations higher, and in the process, is doing nothing to support the dollar.”

The Fed’s more dovish tone “stymied the policy divergence trade” of investors, noted Patrick O’Hare at Briefing.com.

Some even say it goes farther than that, seeing in the Fed’s more cautious attitude as part of a concerted strategy by the Group of 20 major economies to tamp down the dollar.

“To any conspiracy theorists it’s all become quite clear. There is a global coordinated central bank effort to weaken the (dollar) in play,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Markets, evoking a secret “Shanghai Accord”at the G20 meeting of finance chiefs last month.

Julian Jessop of Capital Economics also highlighted the issue: “Is the G20 trying to steer the dollar lower?”

He suggested, however, that the Fed’s dovishness could “soon evaporate” if inflation pressures keep building, forcing it to raise rates and watch the dollar grow stronger. — AFP

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/weaken-the-dollar-the-dovish-feds-hidden-agenda#sthash.kDE2aHPu.dpuf
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 21, 2016, 03:46:18 PM



Opinion: Is Janet Yellen blind to the rebound in inflation?

By Rex Nutting
Published: Mar 20, 2016 11:33 a.m. ET

     162 
The Fed believes temporary factors are goosing the inflation rate
Bloomberg
Inflation hawks think Janet Yellen is behind the curve and needs to raise interest rates to keep inflation from boiling over.
The U.S. economy, by all indications, is near full employment, and, according to the inflation hawks, that means inflation rates should start rising again.

In fact, the hawks say, inflation is already bubbling, and, if Janet Yellen doesn’t cool things fast, inflation will be at a full boil. Very soon, the hawks say, the inflation rate will exceed 2%, which is the Federal Reserve’s target rate.

Inflation has been below 2% for four years, which is one reason the Fed is keeping money so easy. Most Fed officials don’t think inflation will get back to 2% on a sustainable basis for two more years.

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But the data are troubling. Six months ago, inflation barely had a pulse, rising at just 0.2% year-over-year. But now the personal consumption expenditure price index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) is at 1.25%, even as energy prices continue to drop.


Inflation is now rising at a 1.25% rate in the past 12 months.
What’s behind this recent uptick in inflation? One theory is that we have too many jobs. That is, economic theory suggests that when the unemployment rate gets very low, workers gain bargaining power and are able to command higher wages because the demand for labor is higher than the supply. Bosses must raise wages to keep good workers, and then they must raise their selling prices in order to pay those wages.

This relationship is known as the Philips Curve, and it’s been the main theory behind the Fed’s monetary policy for more than 50 years: The Fed tries to keep the unemployment rate just above the level that would fuel inflation. That level is known as the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU.

There’s only one problem. Although the theory seems quite reasonable on a chalkboard, the empirical evidence shows that it doesn’t work in the real world. NAIRU seems to change over time. Sometimes it seems that NAIRU is above 6%. But right now, NAIRU seems to be below 5%. It could be below 3%. Recent research cited by the Council of Economic Advisers suggests NAIRU could be zero. No one really knows. And no one has a better theory to explain inflation.

So far, Fed officials are doing what seems most practical: They are letting the economy run. Before they feel obligated to slam on the brakes, they’ll want actual evidence of higher prices and higher wages. They’ll cautiously raise rates away from zero but maintain accommodative policy for a while longer, especially with risks of global contagion rising.

But what about the spike in the PCE price index in the past few months? Surely that indicates that NAIRU has been breached! Isn’t it time to get serious about raising rates?

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen was asked about that at her latest press conference on Wednesday and she said she wasn’t convinced.

“Given that the economy is now close to our maximum employment objective, hopefully inflation is moving up,” Yellen said, before switching to the other hand. “As you mention, recent readings on inflation have moved up. There may be some, you know, I want to warn that there may be some transitory factors that are influencing that.”


Jewelry and watch prices have surged in the past two months.
In other words, just as transitory declines in oil prices and the one-time strengthening of the dollar have pushed the PCE price index far below the Fed’s target, transitory increases in other prices are now pushing the index higher. But Yellen doesn’t think it’ll last, in either case. Oil prices and the dollar will stabilize, and the transitory price increases seen over the past few months will also fade away.

Now, this may seem like cherry picking the data: Yellen picks which prices matter to her, and disregards the rest. But there is a method to her madness.

Remember, inflation is a general and sustained increase in prices, not just temporary increases or decreases for a few goods and services. What the Fed cares about, what we care about, is the pace of underlying inflation. Transitory spikes or dips aren’t generalized inflation; that’s just the markets working out the ebbs and flows of supply and demand.

Economists have a lot of tools to help them figure out whether the underlying rate of inflation has changed or whether it’s just temporary factors. One method is to use core inflation measures, which automatically ignore volatile food and energy prices. Core inflation does a pretty good job of predicting future inflation rates, but it offends people who think food and energy prices matter in the real world.

Another method has been devised by the Dallas Fed. Its trimmed mean PCE index strips out whatever prices are rising or falling most in a given month, ignoring the outliers on the theory that the biggest price changes are reactions to shocks in individual markets, not part of a general trend.

Researchers at the Dallas Fed point out that the recent spike in the PCE index has been driven by unusually large price increases for goods such as apparel, jewelry, motor vehicles, and drugs, and for services such as air fares, school lunches, tickets for spectator sports and banking fees.

Apparel prices, for instance, are up at a 14% annual rate in the first two months of the year, compared with a 0.9% decrease in 2015. Jewelry and watch prices are up at a 62% annual rate, compared with a 0.7% drop in 2015. Motor vehicle prices are up at a 3.2% rate, compared with a 0.2% rise last year. Drug prices are up at an 11.5% rate, compared with a 1.7% increase last year.

Most likely, the recent spike in the PCE index is due to temporary shocks, not to an acceleration in underlying inflation. There’s no urgency to raise rates on account of hyperinflation lurking right around the corner. In reality, the Fed would be ecstatic if it could get inflation back to 2% any time soon
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 21, 2016, 04:42:55 PM



Fed's Lacker says he is confident inflation will return to 2%
CNBC.com staff   | @CNBC
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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 22, 2016, 10:39:24 AM



美債》葉倫心腹拋4月升息震撼彈!殖利率衝高
回應(0) 人氣(550) 收藏(0) 2016/03/22 08:30
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-22 08:30:45 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯準會(Fed)官員突然拋出最快4月就可能升息的震撼彈,消息傳來帶動日前因聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)聲明偏向鴿派而走跌的殖利率跳漲。
MarketWatch報導,Tradeweb報價顯示,紐約債市21日尾盤時,美國10年期公債殖利率上漲5個基點至1.921%;對聯準會(Fed)利率決策較敏感的2年期公債殖利率上漲3.1個基點至0.870%;30年期公債殖利率上漲4.8個基點至2.722%。公債價格與殖利率呈反向走勢。
美國債市本週五(3月25日)因適逢耶穌受難日(Good Friday)將休市一天,市場交投在長週末來臨前也顯得清淡,使債市的波動遭到誇大。

舊金山聯邦儲備銀行總裁John C. Williams (見圖) 21日在接受Market News International專訪時表示,聯準會(Fed)可能在4月或6月升息,且要不是因為國際因素,Fed本應更早調升利率。Williams還說,通膨的進展相當「令人振奮」。
亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行總裁Dennis Lockhart也和Williams有相同看法,他21日宣稱經濟已經夠穩健,就算4月升息也承受得住。里奇蒙聯邦儲備銀行總裁Jeffrey Lacker 21日則說,通膨應該會在未來幾年逐漸加溫,朝Fed預設的2%目標邁進。
Williams一向被視為Fed主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)的人馬,他的這番說詞和葉倫3月16日於貨幣政策記者會上的說法並不一致,似乎是認為市場如今預期的升息機率太低,想要藉此拉高一些。
路透社報導,葉倫16日當時指出,通膨最近幾個月的確有攀高跡象,這有部分是受到一些經常波動的暫時性因素推動、但長久來看影響不大。因此,葉倫坦承,雖然核心通膨等指標明顯上升,但她不確定這是否能延續下去。
Fed還有數名官員本週會陸續發表談話,市場態度也轉趨觀望。MarketWatch報導,CRT Capital Group公債策略部主管David Ader表示,本週即將登場的Fed官員態度大多偏向鷹派(即費城聯邦儲備銀行總裁Patrick Harker、聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行總裁James Bullard),但在FOMC上週發表聲明之後,很難想像Fed的官方立場會馬上翻盤。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 22, 2016, 06:05:05 PM



财经  2016年03月22日
联储局官员:美经济数据佳 4月料升息

(纽约22日讯)联储局两名官员表示,美国可能有必要升息,最快就在下个月会议上,理由是儘管国外经济有阻力,但是美国经济数据相当不错。

亚特兰大联邦储备银行行长洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)周一在乔治亚州萨凡纳指出,「经济数据显示,动能充沛,接下来的几次会议,有理由进一步採取行动,最快可能在4月底的会议就升息。」

美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下一次开会时间是在4月26日至27日。

上周FOMC暂缓升息,同时把今年升息预估次数减半,去年12月原本预估今年升息4次,如今降为2次,因为全球经济成长可能影响美国经济。

洛克哈特立场中立,今年在FOMC没有投票权。他对美国经济审慎乐观的看法,与旧金山联邦储备银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)一致。

先前威廉斯接受国际市场新闻访问时说,「其他条件不变,假设一切情况基本相同,数据继续以我所希望和预期的態势呈现,那么4月或6月肯定是升息可能的时间点。
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 23, 2016, 09:36:41 AM



《美債》鴿派大將倒戈、暗示升息近眼前!殖利率翻漲
回應(0) 人氣(234) 收藏(0) 2016/03/23 08:22
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-23 08:22:21 記者 郭妍希 報導
身為聯準會(Fed)鴿派大將的芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行總裁Charles Evans (見圖)對經濟前景發表樂觀談話、還暗示下一次升息或許近在眼前,讓投資人驚訝不已,原本因比利時恐怖攻擊案而走揚的公債價格頓時紅翻黑。
MarketWatch報導,Tradeweb報價顯示,紐約債市22日尾盤時,美國10年期公債殖利率上漲1.4個基點至1.935%;對聯準會(Fed)利率決策較敏感的2年期公債殖利率上漲2.3個基點至0.892%;30年期公債殖利率下跌不到1個基點至2.716%。公債價格與殖利率呈反向走勢。
Evans 22日表示,以當前的經濟展望來看,Fed今年應該會升息兩次。他還說,Fed利率預期點狀圖(dot plot)的中值落點相當合理。

雖然Evans今(2016)年並非聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的投票成員,但由於他是重量級鴿派成員,這次立場竟然丕變,讓愈來愈多人相信聯準會(Fed)或許打算在4月或6月升息。FOMC才剛在上週維持利率不變,還把今年預估的升息次數從原本的四次減少至兩次,理由是全球經濟依舊充滿疑慮。
舊金山聯邦儲備銀行總裁John C. Williams昨(21)日在接受Market News International專訪時才剛表示,Fed可能在4月或6月升息,且要不是因為國際因素,Fed本應更早調升利率。Williams還說,通膨的進展相當「令人振奮」。Williams一向被視為Fed主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)的人馬。
債券價格22日稍早一度因為布魯塞爾爆炸案走走強,但不久就在Evans發表談話的影響下翻黑,也讓殖利率走高。
歐洲公債價格原本也因為恐攻事件上揚,但德國企業信心優於預期,卻使價格漲幅收斂。德國經濟研究所(Ifo Institute)公布,3月企業信心指數從2月的105.7點上升至106.7點。
MarketWatch報價顯示,德國10年期公債殖利率22日稍早一度下挫最多5個基點,終場跌幅則收斂至2.5個基點、來到0.210%


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: ongchef on March 23, 2016, 10:06:05 AM
 :D :D :D...........su dou nou chan de ren yu cai copycat he sou fei hua!!! :D :D :D :thumbsup: :handshake: :handshake:
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 23, 2016, 08:18:34 PM



Fed Chair Yellen has a mini revolt on her hands
Steve Liesman   | @steveliesman
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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.
Joshua Roberts | Reuters
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen has something of a mini revolt on her hands.

Four of the 17 members of the Federal Open Market Committee have now publicly indicated their disagreement with the dovish guidance in last week's policy statement and in comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at her press conference.

The latest dissenter is Patrick Harker, the new president of the Philadelphia Fed, who said in a speech Tuesday night that the Fed should "get on with" rate hikes and consider another move in April.

He joins centrists John Williams of San Francisco and Dennis Lockhart of Atlanta who earlier this week said the Fed should consider an April hike. Esther George, the Kansas City Fed president who is thought to be among the more hawkish Fed members, dissented at the meeting last week and called for a 25 basis point hike.

Only one of the four dissenters is a voter this year, suggesting that Yellen has the votes she needs if she wants to keep rates unchanged at the April meeting.

But their viewpoints raise questions about just how secure those votes are and whether other hawkish members of the FOMC, for example Loretta Mester of Cleveland, or even Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer, could be leaning toward a hike next month. They also present something of a public challenge to Yellen's leadership.

While Yellen said at her press conference that April, like all meetings, was a live meeting, she otherwise indicated she was wary of rate hikes in the near future.

"Proceeding cautiously in removing policy accommodation at this time will allow us to verify that the labor market is continuing to strengthen despite the risks from abroad," Yellen said.

"Such caution is appropriate given that short-term interest rates are still near zero, which means that monetary policy has greater scope to respond to upside than to downside changes in the outlook."

In its policy statement, the Fed raised its level of concern over global economic weakness and declined to say whether the risks were balanced toward stronger or weaker economic growth. Some observers believe the Fed needs to asses the risks as balanced before it will hike again.

In addition, the average number of rate hikes forecast this year by FOMC members declined to just two from four. The combination of the statements, Yellen's press conference and changes to the rate outlook led markets to price in a rate hike only as soon as September, where it previously had pegged June
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 23, 2016, 08:19:55 PM



QUICK FIND BEN, AND FIRE UP THE HELICOPTERS WITH COLD HARD CASH FROM THE SKIES
Our Reporter | March 23, 2016
download (1)
After more than 600 interest-rate cuts and $12 trillion of asset purchases since the financial crisis failed to move the inflation needle enough, central banks may need to head even deeper into uncharted territory.
The way to get the world out of its disinflationary rut could lie in them directly financing government stimulus — a strategy known as deploying “helicopter money” after a 1969 proposal from Nobel laureate Milton Friedman.
Economists at Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and Commerzbank AG all published reports to investors on the topic in the past two weeks, while hedge fund titan Ray Dalio sees potential in the idea. European Central Bank officials are already squabbling about what President Mario Draghi calls a “very interesting concept.”

“We don’t know for certain that ‘helicopter money’ will be the next attempted silver bullet, however the topic is receiving considerably more attention,” said Gabriel Stein, an economist at Oxford Economics Ltd. in London. “The likelihood is reasonably high of some form being implemented somewhere.”

The theory — never attempted by a modern major economy — is to fuse monetary and fiscal policies now both running out of room. Cash-strapped governments sell short-term debt straight to their central bank for newly printed money that is then injected straight into the economy via tax cuts or spending programs. The usual and currently-constrained intermediaries, like banks, are bypassed.
The idea is to spur spending and investment directly rather than influence bond yields or sentiment. Central banks can be saved from permanently underwriting governments by establishing growth or inflation limits.
In a 2002 speech that earned him the nickname “Helicopter Ben,” then-Federal Reserve Governor Ben S. Bernanke said taking to the skies would “almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices.”
Reviving the debate is the failure of inflation to accelerate in much of the world despite Bank of America Corp.’s calculation that as of early February central banks had cut rates 637 times and spent $12.3 trillion on assets. It also estimated 489 million people now live in countries where rates are negative.
Runaway Inflation
To Dalio, the founder of $154 billion Bridgewater Associates, that means the next step should be to do even more to spark demand.
“If you look around the world, our risk is not inflation and our risk is not overheating economies,” he told Bloomberg Television’s Erik Schatzker on March 3. “They’re going to have to go more directly to spenders.”
So what’s not to like? Critics say spraying money around would eventually mean Weimar-style runaway inflation and bloated government debt. The independence and credibility of central banks would be potentially damaged. And the policy could backfire if households sit on the money.
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has already said “helicopter money” would “rip huge holes in central bank balance sheets” and leave governments and taxpayers to “pay the bill in the end.”
‘Free Lunch’
Then there’s the law. The ECB is prohibited from financing states and lacks a single Treasury to work with, while the Fed is constrained in what assets it can buy.
“The helicopter option is simple, easily implemented and, for some, offers the closest thing to a free lunch,” said Stephen King, senior economic adviser to HSBC. “If this sounds too good to be true, that’s because it is.”
Draghi last week said that while the ECB has not studied the concept “it clearly involves complexities, both accounting-wise and legal-wise.” Colleague Peter Praet, nevertheless declined to rule it out as an option when asked.
The debate may remain academic. In the U.S., prices are shifting higher and the International Monetary Fund still forecasts inflation in advanced economies to accelerate next year to 1.7 percent from 1.1 percent.
Revisiting the Unimaginable
“I don’t think helicopter money gets rolled out quite yet,” said Ewen Cameron-Watt, chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc. “You need a considerable downturn and further decline in inflation expectations first.”
Still, if economies do slide anew, Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics Ltd. in London, noted central banks have shown willingness to revisit once-rejected ideas.
“The clear lesson of recent years has been that seemingly unimaginable policy measures previously confined to the theory or history books can become reality if extraordinary economic circumstances persist for long enough,” he said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 06:09:20 AM



Bob Pisani Says "The Fed Is Alarmed By Market Complacency" - Why This Is A Big Problem For Yellen
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2016 15:11 -0400

Bob Pisani Copper Dennis Lockhart None St Louis Fed St. Louis Fed Steve Liesman


 
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"Is the Fed confusing the market?"

That is how Bob Pisani' latest CNBC column begins, to which our logical response is "what market" - the "market" which any time it drops by 10% see every central bank unleashes historic jawboning and/or unprecedented monetary easing with QE (as in the case of the ECB now monetizing private bonds); the market which can not go below 2,000 without Yellen admitting her "dots" were twice as much as they should have been;  the market which has been propped up only by corporate buybacks funded by cheap debt courtesy of... the Fed.

That market?

But before we mock Bob, he does make some interesting points, namely one swhich we heard as recently as one week ago from one of Pisani's co-workers. This is what Bob says:

It was a beautiful narrative: the FOMC last week clearly reflected a dovish tone, implying two rate hikes in 2016, while modestly upgrading the state of the economy. Only Esther George of Kansas City, a hawk, dissented.
 
But that narrative is starting to change, for reasons that are confusing the market. This morning James Bullard, head of the St. Louis Fed and an FOMC voter, implied in an interview that an April rate hike was possible. He joins Patrick Harker from Philadelphia Fed, a hawk and nonvoter, who also said April was on the table. Charles Evans and Dennis Lockhart, while both nonvoters, also made hawkish comments recently.
 
This has only become more relevant now that Bullard, who is a voting member and perceived to be a centrist, has come out and implied the Fed may be getting behind the curve.
 
Bullard appeared to have an immediate effect on currency and commodity markets this morning: the dollar strengthened, and commodities dropped, with copper down 1.8 percent, gold down 2.5 percent, oil down 3 percent. Perhaps more importantly, the dollar index has been up four days in a row. It has now retraced 60 percent of the loss it saw in the days immediately following the FOMC meeting, when the dollar index dropped a stunning 2.3 percent in two days.
Bob's conclusion:

What happened? It's possible the Fed has seen the market reaction and become alarmed by the complacency. It's true, the probabilities for even a June rate hike—let alone April--declined dramatically in the face of the Fed meeting. That may have alarmed the Fed, and so some members may feel the need to keep the markets more alert.
Why is all of this relevant? Because it is nearly a carbon-copy of what none other than one of the Fed's favorite journalists, Steve Liesman, said last week when he dared to ask Yellen if the Fed has lost credibility:

Madam Chair, as you know, inflation has gone up the last two months. We had another strong jobs report. The tracking forecasts for GDP have returned to two percent. And yet the Fed stands pat while it's in a process of what it said at launch in December was a process of normalization.... Does the Fed have a credibility problem in the sense that it says it will do one thing under certain conditions, but doesn't end up doing it?
Recall what we said one week ago:

"if the Fed can not make a favorable impression on those who are paid to at least pretend that they "get it", what about the rest of the market.  Worst of all, since the Fed peddles only in faith and "perpetuating the narrative" du jour, in this case one that the Fed has credibility despite not doing what it has explicitly said it would do, how long until it is not just Liesman, but everyone else, who openly admits that the Fed's emperor is fully naked."
Today we got one answer when one of the other people who are paid to pretend all is well, Bob Pisani, openly dared to question the status quo regime.

Which is concerning, not so much because the Fed may be having a "mini-revolt" on her hands within the Fed as Liesman asked - Yellen can easily ignore any opposing voices; the far bigger revolt is when the paid propaganda, such as Liesman and Bob, openly start asking questions. It is that lack of faith that is most troubling to Yellen, as it is this close from admitting the Fed emperor has been naked all along.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 07:30:50 AM



《歐股》FED再嗆四月升息!油、礦股齊跌,歐元連四貶
回應(0) 人氣(198) 收藏(0) 2016/03/24 06:12
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-24 06:12:45 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
歐洲油、礦股雙雙失速,導致歐股周三反攻失利,泛歐Stoxx 600指數全場開高走低,終場由紅翻黑收跌0.07%。

聯準會(FED)官員近期頻頻對升息加重口氣,使得美元再度轉強,聖路易分行總裁布拉德(James Bullard)周三指出,美國景氣大至不變,四月升息應需認真考慮。費城分行總裁哈克(Patrick Harker)日前甚至表示,未來升息步伐有必要加快。

歐元聞訊走貶,歐元兌美元尾盤貶值0.32%至1.118、英鎊下挫0.63%至1.4115,兩者均已連續四日貶值。

原物料價格好壞看美元臉色,隨著美元走強,原物料類股近期跌勢有加遽跡象,英美鉑金公司(Anglo American)當日重挫5.39%、原物料交易商嘉能可(Glencore)同步收跌3.97%。

石油類股同樣表現不佳,歐洲油田服務供應商Amec Foster Wheeler、TGS-NOPEC Geophysical分跌大跌7.74%與5%。

比利時首都布魯塞爾22日遭恐怖攻擊,德國隔日即通過加碼國防預算,藉以安定人心,使得旅遊類股當日成功止跌,德國第一大航空公司漢莎航空(Lufthansa)終場收漲2.88%,法國旅館集團收高0.2%


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 11:36:05 AM



搞叛變、多名FED官員挺4月升息!美元指數飆1週高
回應(0) 人氣(380) 收藏(0) 2016/03/24 09:16
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-24 09:16:39 記者 陳苓 報導
上週美國聯準會(FED)的政策會議意外偏向鴿派,暗示將緩慢調升利率,升息次數也從四次減為兩次,市場歡欣鼓舞。不料好日子不到一週就風雲變色,數名FED官員公開與葉倫唱反調,齊呼應在四月升息。
CNBC、MarketWatch、路透社報導,FED旗下的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC),17名成員有5人搞叛變。最新的反叛成員是費城聯準銀行總裁哈克(Patrick Harker),他認為FED應考慮四月升息。聖路易聯準銀行總裁布拉德(James Bullard)也說, 該是FED動手的時候了,他們三月沒採取行動,將視四月數據做出判斷。
在此之前,舊金山聯準銀行總裁威廉斯(John Williams)和亞特蘭大聯準銀行總裁洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)都力挺四月升息可能。堪薩斯聯準銀行總裁喬琪(Esther George)更在上週會議投下反對票,認為應在三月升息。唱反調的五名成員,只有兩人在FOMC有投票權,意味葉倫四月若想按兵不動,應該仍能取得足夠票數,怕是到時其他鷹派成員跑票,公開挑戰葉倫權威。 FOMC下次會議在4月26、27日。

FED頻頻放話,原本放下心中大石的投資人轉趨緊張。芝加哥交易所集團(CME Group)聯邦基金利率期貨顯示,四月升息機率從22日的7%、23日跳升至14%。儘管當前市場多認為,四月升息可能性極小,但是倘若通膨逼近FED的2%目標,就業市場維持穩健、FED官員看好美國經濟,或許市場觀點也會跟著轉變。
FED官員敲邊鼓,美元飆升,站上一週新高。追蹤美元相對六大主要貨幣的美元指數,23日上漲0.3%、至95.980,為3月16日以來新高。
要是FED真的在四月升息,美元或許將轉強。Business Insider Australia報導,澳洲西太平洋銀行(Westpac)的G10外匯策略師Richard Franulovich認為,美國經濟領先指標頻傳喜訊,美元不會繼續被看貶,未來有望飆漲。Franulovich指出,3月份紐約州製造業景氣指數自前月的-16.64跳升至+0.62,創8個月新高。費城FED指數也從-2.8增至+12.4,為13個月高。里奇蒙FED指數更從-4飆至+22,逼近6年新高,徹底逆轉了去年的衰退敗象。他認為這些數據不是雜音,指出了真正的新趨勢,預期未來幾週公布的芝加哥採購經理人指數(PMI)和ISM PMI也將報佳音。
Franulovich表示,美元強彈有前車之鑑,去年三月政策會議上,FED態度也意外偏向鴿派,導致美元走低,但是去年下半美元就反轉上漲,當前情況幾乎和去年如出一轍。去年年初FED立場轉變,美元重貶,但是去年Q2季末,數據好轉,FED疑慮消退,升息之說又重回檯面,帶動美元走升。Franulovich認為,今年類似情況或許將會重演。
MarketWatch等多家外電報導,芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行總裁伊文斯(Charles Evans)為鴿派大將,連他都對經濟前景發表樂觀談話,還預估央行今年會升息兩次,讓市場更加相信,美國也許4月或6月就會升息。美國公債殖利率的走勢也預測,Fed主席葉倫應該會達成2%的通膨目標。(鴿派支持採用低利率政策、刺激成長。鷹派則偏好採行較高利率,以免通膨失控。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 02:21:17 PM



The probability of an April rate hike just doubled

By Joseph Adinolfi
Published: Mar 23, 2016 12:50 p.m. ET

     25 
‘I think we need to get on with it,’ Fed official says
Reuters
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, a voting member of the Fed’s rate-setting committee, hinted that an April hike was still possible in remarks from Wednesday.
The decidedly hawkish tone embraced by Federal Reserve officials so far this week is forcing investors to rethink the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the central bank’s April meeting.

The CME’s FedWatch too, used to gauge the market’s view of probability for Fed interest-rate hikes, shows that traders were pricing in a 14% chance of a hike in April on Wednesday, compared with just 7% a day ago.

The Fed will announce its next rate-hike decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on April 27, at the close of its next two-day policy meeting.



Note: The data in this chart reflects current market activity. a CME Group spokeswoman confirmed. The presence of Tuesday’s date in the top right corner is an error on the CME website.
To be sure, an April hike remains unlikely.

“The probability went from very low to still low,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan.

But the shift in expectations is significant because it shows that recent remarks from Fed officials have muddled market participants’ view of the central bank’s intended path for rising interest rates.

On Monday, both Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco Fed President John Williams floated the idea of raising interest rates in April.

Neither Lockhart nor Williams are voting members this year. But St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is. And on Wednesday, he said there was a “credible” case for the Fed to hike interest rates last week.

“We didn’t do it, so now we can look at April and see what the data look like when we get to April,” Bullard said.

The views of those Fed officials contrast sharply with the central bank’s cautious outlook at the conclusion of its March meeting just a week ago.

An updated policy statement released after the March meeting showed the Fed remains wary of global economic and financial conditions and their potential impact on the U.S. economy.

And a new set of projections released alongside the statement showed a plurality of Fed policy makers now expect just two rate increases in 2016, down from an estimate of four back in December.

The Fed declined to raise interest rates in March, despite the fact that strong labor-market data and signs of rising inflation caused some to speculate about a possible hike.

Even Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, a notorious dove, presented slightly more hawkish view in comments from Tuesday. Evans said he would back a “wait-and-see approach” at the Fed until there’s evidence that the recent uptick in U.S. inflation has been sustained. But noted that U.S. economic fundamentals are “quite good.”

Perhaps the most hawkish comments came from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker who said the Fed should seriously consider raising rates in April.

“I think we need to get on with it,” he said. Harker won’t become a voting member of the Fed’s policy committee until next year.

With little in the way of market-moving data released so far this week, it’s likely that the Fed speakers are responsible for a bulk of the shift in expectations, Feroli said.

“I think the Fed speak recently has been perceived as more hawkish than the developments last week,” Feroli said.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen did caution that April remains a “live” meeting during a news conference last week.

However, many analysts continue to believe a hike in April remains extremely unlikely, but that view could shift quickly. That is especially the case if inflation continues to move toward the Fed’s 2% target, the job market remains healthy and Fed officials continue to express optimism about the U.S. economy and less concern about global growth
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 08:55:45 PM


FOCUS
GLOBAL
LOCAL
CORPORATE FIGURE
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GOLDMAN TO FED: STOP WORRYING SO MUCH ABOUT THE STRONGER DOLLAR
Our Reporter | March 24, 2016
images (2)
From : Rachel Evans
It’s time for the Federal Reserve to end its dollar fixation.
That’s the takeaway from a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report Wednesday that suggests the U.S. currency poses little threat to the Fed’s inflation goals, challenging policy makers’ comments to the contrary. That’s good news for dollar bulls who are betting on expanded monetary-policy divergence between the U.S., Europe and Japan.
Inflation is at the heart of the Fed’s debate about the timing of interest-rate increases as officials look to normalize monetary policy after seven years of near-zero interest rates. With a stronger dollar not translating into significantly cheaper import prices, Goldman Sachs suggests the central bank faces fewer headwinds to hiking rates than markets are currently pricing in.
“The majority of the effects of a stronger dollar on import prices have already been realized,” New York-based analysts Zach Pandl and Elad Pashtan wrote in the note. “Inflation data to date appears to be more closely tracking a path with less dollar pass-through to core inflation” than implied by the Fed’s projections for consumer prices.
Bond Market
Investors agree. The gap between yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and nominal 10-year notes, known as the break-even rate, climbed to the highest since August earlier this week. The measure indicates inflation will average about 1.59 percent over the next decade, compared with 1.2 percent last month. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the currency versus 10 peers, advanced 0.7 percent on Wednesday, extending its longest streak of gains since the period ending Feb. 16.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said after last week’s policy meeting that the strength of the U.S. currency may continue to weigh on consumer prices. Officials lowered their forecasts for price gains this year to just to 1.2 percent, from 1.6 percent previously.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has weakened 2.7 percent this year, after a 9 percent gain in 2015 and an 11 percent rally the year before.
“Although any pent-up pass-through effects from dollar appreciation remain a downside risk to core PCE inflation, that alone does not appear to be a compelling reason for lower inflation over the course of the coming two years,” Pandl and Pashtan wrote.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 08:57:13 PM



華爾街預言家:聯儲不會加息 防特朗普冒起
03月24日(四) 15:42   

聯儲局
【on.cc東網專訊】歐洲太平洋資本行政總裁、有「華爾街預言家」之稱的Peter Schiff在接受外國傳媒訪問時表示,鑒於美國經濟前景不斷惡化,聯儲局很快會投降,並打消所有加息預期,因聯儲局目前已不能自拔,情況正如2008年金融危機之初一樣。

Schiff強調,聯儲局之所以不加息,是不希望看到尚未浮出水面的經濟衰退,在未來幾個月的總統選舉成為公眾話題。如果這種情況出現,共和黨總統候選人特朗普當選的勝算會再高幾成,這是聯儲局主席耶倫不惜任何代價都要避免的。

故此,聯儲局的加息時機只會一再押後,到最後是今年內都不會加息
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 28, 2016, 09:43:00 AM



Fed's Williams: US doing fine, world isn't
CNBC.com staff   | @CNBC
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John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
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John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
A member of the U.S. central bank's monetary policy-setting committee believes global developments are preventing the world's largest economy from returning to normalized interest rates.
John Williams, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, told CNBC on Monday that he believe the U.S. economy is doing "quite well," pointing to stable inflation and strong employment growth.

"The real issue is the global financial and economic developments, there's uncertainty about what's happening around the world and how that feeds back to the dollar and the U.S. economy," he told 'Asia Squawk Box.'

Williams reiterated that the central bank's policy decisions would remain data dependent, singling out inflation as one of the Fed'stop concerns.

"We've been missing our 2 percent inflation goal for three and a half years or so, global disinflationary factors are still holding inflation down...The data to me isn't so much about the labor market continuing to improve, I'm very positive on that, it's more about inflation moving back to 2 percent in the context of very strong headwinds," he explained,citing the strong dollar and low commodity prices.

"We have a domestic mandate...but that said, we understand that we're in a global economy so what happens in Brazil or China has a huge impact on the U.S. in terms of our inflation and employment goals."

His remarks come as global markets seek clarity from Federal Reserve officials for clues on whether the central bank will hike rates at its April policy meeting.
James Bullard
Another rate hike may be coming soon: Fed's Bullard
Expectations of an increase have risen following hawkish commentary from several members of the FOMC last week, including Williams.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Williams both believe a hike during the scheduled April 26-27 review is warranted, while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said "the next rate increase may not be far off."

The remarks spooked Wall Street however, as it contradicted Fed Chair Janet Yellen's dovish-sounding statement earlier in March.

When asked about the mixed policy messages, Williams insisted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was united in its vision.

"I would say there's broad agreement on the committee that our basic strategy, which is to gradually remove policy accommodation and raise interest rates over the next couple of years, has strong support. The real question is when we should raise rates, what pace we should raise rates. That's going to be driven by the data so we'll have to wait and see."

Markets will now be paying close attention to Yellen's speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday as well as Fed Vice-Chair William Dudley's address on Thursday for further hints on the central bank's outlook.

Friday's employment report will also be scrutinized for proof of the economic recovery. Societe Generale expects at least 24,900 jobs were created in March, which would mark an improvement from February's 24,200
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 28, 2016, 02:06:19 PM



為何Fed忽鴿忽鷹?葉倫心腹:升息時點、速度沒談攏
回應(0) 人氣(322) 收藏(0) 2016/03/28 12:34
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-28 12:34:59 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)3月16日在貨幣政策會後雖然按兵不動、發表鴿派聲明,但聯準會(Fed)內部顯然意見分歧,雖然主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)已在16日警告年初的通膨可能只是曇花一現,但其他多名Fed官員卻在之後輪番發表鷹派看法,美元指數跟著由貶轉升,金融市場更是丈二金剛摸不著頭緒。
ICE美元指數(DXY)上週共計上漲了1.3%,觸及96.368點,創3月16日以來新高。美元今(28)日在亞洲盤相對於日圓又續漲。嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,美元兌日圓28日開盤迄今最高升至113.68、創3月16日新高。
聯準會(Fed)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen,見圖)即將在本週二(3月29日)於紐約經濟俱樂部發表談話,紐約聯邦儲備銀行總裁William Dudley也會緊跟著在週四發表談話,投資人莫不殷切期盼這兩位重量級大老能為大家解惑。

一向被視為葉倫人馬的舊金山聯邦儲備銀行總裁John C. Williams今(28)日在接受CNBC亞洲頻道「Asia Squawk Box」專訪時又再度重申了鷹派看法,認為美國經濟其實相當不錯,不但通膨穩定、就業成長也頗為強勁,真正的問題來自全球的金融與經濟發展,因為美元和美國經濟究竟會受到那些衝擊,依舊充滿不確定性。
在被問到Fed官員為何對貨幣政策看法紛呈時,Williams堅稱,其實大家對FOMC的基本策略都相當認同,就是要逐漸移除寬鬆政策、在未來幾年調高利率,有爭議的主要在升息的時間點與調整的速度,而這一切都要看經濟數據如何發展。
Williams重申,Fed的貨幣政策將以經濟報告為根據,通膨是Fed憂心的首要問題。他說,美國已連續三年半達不到2%的通膨目標,主要是受到全球通縮困境的壓抑,就業持續改善已不是重點,通膨能不能在如此惡劣的環境中(指強勢美元、原物料價格崩落)回升至2%、才是問題。
Williams表示,Fed的法定義務(即維持物價穩定、充分就業)雖然是針對美國國內,但如今世界已成地球村,巴西、中國究竟發生何事,對美國的通膨與就業目標都會產生重大影響。
不過,他說,Fed不會因為通膨低迷而實施負利率貨幣政策(NIRP),美國還有其他工具可供使用,這當中包括量化寬鬆貨幣政策以及前瞻指引(forward guidance)。他表示,美國的情況相當不同,Fed已決定在未來幾年調高利率,而整體經濟也比歐洲、日本強上許多,因此Fed應該不至於會用到負利率。
Williams 3月21日在接受Market News International專訪時就曾表示,聯準會(Fed)可能在4月或6月升息,且要不是因為國際因素,Fed本應更早調升利率。Williams還說,通膨的進展相當「令人振奮」。
亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行總裁Dennis Lockhart和Williams都相信,FOMC有充分理由在4月26-27日的貨幣政策會議上升息,而聖路易斯聯邦儲備銀行總裁James Bullard也說,距離Fed下一次升息的時間點或已不遠。
美國本週五(4月1日)即將公布眾所矚目的3月就業報告,屆時勢必會成為投資人觀察重點。法國興業銀行估計,3月美國非農業就業人數應該至少新增了24,900人,高於2月的24,200人。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 28, 2016, 08:22:26 PM



The dollar may give the Fed a green light on rates: Analyst
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
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The Federal Reserve could raise interest rates in June if the dollar doesn't spike in expectation of such a move, Fidelity Investment's Jurrien Timmer said Monday.

Earlier on Monday, San Francisco Fed president John Williams told CNBC that while the U.S. economy is doing "quite well," global developments are feeding back into the dollar and the U.S. economy, preventing the Fed from moving.

Williams and three other regional Fed presidents have said the central bank should begin tightening monetary policy sooner rather than later.


John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Fed's Williams: US doing fine, world isn't
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The market is about to lose its leader: Traders

The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December, but has since held steady. At its last meeting, Federal Open Market Committee members indicated they only anticipate raising rates twice this year, down from earlier expectations of four hikes.

Timmer said the Fed has been stuck in a "tug-of-war" in which the talk of higher rates strengthens the dollar, leading to corresponding weakness in the Chinese yuan. That in turn causes the People's Bank of China to draw down foreign reserves to offset yuan outflows, which creates volatility in U.S. markets.

That's why dollar movements will be the key indicator as to whether the Fed will act, said Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro. The FOMC's April meeting is off the table, but June is potentially in play, he said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box."



Cramer: Hey, Fed, don't look at KB Home earnings
"If the Fed starts talking about a June hike and things don't sort of unravel in the currency markets, then maybe they get a green light, and that would be reflected in the fed funds futures odds," he said.

"If come May the odds are well above 50 [percent] and the dollar is still somewhat well-behaved, then they get a green light, but it's too early to tell whether we're going to be there or not," he added.

Richard Clarida, global strategic advisor at Pimco, said he believes Fed Chair Janet Yellen will use the April statement to prepare investors for a June hike. However, he stressed that the committee will move gradually.

"If they go too aggressively, more than is priced [into the market], they do get a big move in the dollar," he told "Squawk Box" on Monday. "But I think they're resigned to some support for the dollar and I don't think that will deter them from hiking a couple more times this year.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 29, 2016, 08:29:39 AM



Yellen to battle the 'dark side'
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
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Janet Yellen
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Janet Yellen
Fed Chair Janet Yellen has some explaining to do.

Yellen speaks Tuesday in a much anticipated midday appearance before the Economic Club of New York — just days after several Fed officials surprised markets by saying a rate hike could be coming soon. The problem is that the U.S. central bank on March 16 released a post-meeting statement that markets viewed as dovish, and most Fed watchers see June as the first time it would consider raising rates.

"This is the dark side of transparency. People talk and the market thinks the Fed is going to tell us, that the Fed is all-knowing and clear," said Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist, Joseph LaVorgna. "And what we're finding is transparency doesn't make the market any more comfortable or confident in what the Fed is going to do. ... The Fed has wrong-footed the market consistently."

Charles Biderman
Santelli Extra: The strong jobs market myth
The dollar, while weaker Monday, has firmed in recent sessions on comments from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and others who said the Fed could consider a rate hike in April. "All the FOMC members seem to be swinging back and forth in their sentiment, probably reflecting market conditions," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "Bottom line the economy is strong and it's rapidly approaching full employment, and inflation is much more likely to be heading north than south."

But Monday's economic data raised questions about the strength of the economy and whether it can endure rate hikes. Economists trimmed first-quarter GDP forecasts after a downward revision to January's consumption data and a wider trade gap. The median first-quarter growth tracking estimate was sliced by a sharp half percent to 0.9 percent, according to the CNBC/Moody's Analytics rapid update of economists' estimates.

"She has to acknowledge that the economic growth is more uneven than the Fed would like," said Diane Swonk, founder and CEO of DS Economics. "The hawkishness existed obviously at the meeting as well or we would not have gotten the dissent." Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented at the March gathering. The Fed also issued new forecasts that day, including an interest rate projection that showed two hikes in 2016, revised down from four.

NYSE Trader on the floor
This big fuel for the bull market is losing steam
While some Fed watchers expect Yellen to re-emphasize that April will be a "live meeting," meaning the central bank could raise rates, the market is placing low odds on it actually moving. Zandi said a key will be whether Yellen starts to discuss what would happen if the Fed does not start moving to normalcy. That would not mean the Fed would be ready to raise rates in April, but would signal that it intends to hike soon and keep hiking, he said.

"This economy is pretty close to full employment It's not consistent with where rates are today," said Zandi. Economists expect to see 205,000 nonfarm payrolls for March when jobs data are released Friday.

Swonk, however, said there is more labor slack than meets the eye, and that's clear in a reluctant consumer. "I think she'll reaffirm her concern about wages and that growth is tepid. She's argued there's still a slack in the labor market and she's been proven right on that," Swonk said. "It's not a 4.9 percent unemployment rate economy."

Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Fed is trying to confuse investors: Strategist
The Fed has looked for a growth rate of 2 percent but the economy is falling short, she said. "I think it keeps June in the game but even though hawks will still have an itchy trigger finger in April they're not going to move," Swonk said.

Zandi said the Fed is not paying much attention to gross domestic product. He took issue with the way GDP is calculated in the first place, as it misses information services and technology.

But he did say the Fed's message has been confusing. "I am perplexed by the communicating. It does feel like it's been a bit of a pingpong match." he said. "It seems her tone is swinging more than I would have thought."

Besides Yellen's 12:20 p.m. EDT speech and question and answer session, there are two other Fed speakers. San Francisco Fed President John Williams gives remarks at 5:15 a.m. ET in Singapore, and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan speaks at 1 p.m. in Austin, Texas. He also has a 4 p.m. appearance.

There is S&P/Case-Shiller home price data at 9 a.m., and consumer confidence at 10 a.m. Earnings are expected from Lennar, Dave & Buster's, McCormick and Restoration Hardware.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 30, 2016, 06:03:35 AM



Yellen pushes back at the hawks, stocks higher
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Fed Chair Janet Yellen reassured markets that the U.S. central bank will move cautiously with further rate hikes, pushing back at recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials.

Yellen, speaking to the Economic Club of New York, said it is appropriate to proceed with caution in moving policy, and that economic and financial conditions are somewhat less favorable than in December when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nine years.
But some Fed watchers thought Yellen's message was murkier than usual and raised doubts about the central bank's forecasts and monetary path.

"Janet Yellen gave her audience limited lip service to 'baseline' projections and expectations for dual mandate improvement and rate normalization, but carpet-bombed her audience with possible downside caveats. In so doing, she created the distinct impression that she had little confidence in the Fed's baseline outlook," wrote Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, in a note.

But the market took her words as dovish nonetheless, and stocks rose, the dollar weakened, and bond yields fell, particularly the Fed-sensitive two-year note yield. That note slipped to 0.78 percent from 0.84 percent before her speech. Bank stocks fell with declining yields.
Read MoreYellen: Economic readings mixed, appropriate to be cautious

"Curiously, for a central bank presumably in the middle of a tightening cycle, Yellen's speech focused more on downside risks that those to the upside," wrote Dana Saporta, director of economic research at Credit Suisse.

Traders also focused on her comments that progress has been made in inflation measures, but that she sees inflation remaining low this year and the prospect of down readings concerns her.
"The major thing that changed since December and March that affects the baseline outlook is the slightly weaker-than-expected pace of global growth," Yellen said in response to a question after her speech.

Yellen's appearance was the first since several Fed officials suggested last week that the central bank should start to move more quickly to raise rates, even as early as April.

Those comments were viewed as surprising and a sign of disagreement within Yellen's Fed, particularly after the FOMC issued a dovish statement after its March meeting.
"One of the challenges of transparency is when you're transparent during a period where policy is in flux, and new things are being tested. In being transparent, you're also exposing vulnerability and that's what we're seeing here," said Saporta.

Markets also priced out a full rate hike for 2016, and according to RBS, the odds for a rate rise fell to 25 percent for June from 32 percent. The expectation for a full rate hike by December dropped to a 90 percent chance.

Read MoreShock cuts to Q1 GDP show economy could be faltering

"I think it's less lashing back against the hawks and more offering her opinion. I don't think that she's overcompensating or swinging the pendulum. She just has a different opinion," said Ian Lyngen, senior Treasury strategist at CRT Capital.
John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at RBS, said Yellen was not so much countering the hawkish comments but reinforcing the March FOMC statement.

"How much of this is keeping markets on your side to gain time for overseas concerns? The Fed gets very involved in the markets so it's hard to tell," said Briggs. "Either way, her comments are conducive for easier financial conditions for the United States."

Yellen did say the U.S. economy and labor situation in particular are making progress, but her concerns suggest a very slow path of rate hikes. She also said the Fed has the ability to be accommodative. Recent data have been mixed and economists cut the median first-quarter GDP growth tracking estimate to just 0.9 percent Monday after weaker consumer spending data and a wider trade gap.

"I think it depends on all of the things she's really focusing on — inflation expectations, overseas and whether the U.S. economy holds up. Certainly what she's doing is helping weaken the dollar which helps out the overseas side, keeps rates low and stocks higher," said Briggs.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 30, 2016, 10:31:45 AM



Yellen push back at hawks creates confusion
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
2 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
151
SHARES
309
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Fed Chair Janet Yellen attempted to reassure markets that the U.S. central bank will move cautiously with further rate hikes, pushing back at recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials. But the Fed chair also managed to unleash a backlash from some of Wall Street's more often staid economists.

Yellen, speaking to The Economic Club of New York, said that it is appropriate to proceed with caution in moving policy, and that economic and financial conditions are somewhat less favorable than in December when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nine years.
But some Fed watchers thought Yellen's message was murkier than usual and raised doubts about the central bank's forecasts and monetary path.

"Janet Yellen gave her audience limited lip service to 'baseline' projections and expectations for dual mandate improvement and rate normalization, but carpet-bombed her audience with possible downside caveats. In so doing, she created the distinct impression that she had little confidence in the Fed's baseline outlook," wrote Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies, in a note.

Read MoreYellen: Economic readings mixed, appropriate to be cautious

Citigroup economists cut back on their rate hike expectations after the speech and now expect just one rise this year, in either September or December. And Amherst Pierpont's chief economist, Stephen Stanley, said the chair's speech revealed herself to be a "radical dove," in a note he titled "Janet Yellen jumped the shark."

"In the past, she and I might have looked at a glass of water and disagreed about whether it was half full or half empty," wrote Stanley. "Today she took the partially full glass and dumped most of the water out and defiantly declared the glass mostly empty. Her assessment of the economic and policy outlooks is well out of step with most of her colleagues on the FOMC as well as most private sector economists."

Yellen's appearance was the first since several Fed officials suggested last week that the central bank should start to move more quickly to raise rates, even as early as April.

Those comments were viewed as surprising and a sign of disagreement within Yellen's Fed, particularly after the FOMC issued a dovish statement after its March meeting.

"There really wasn't any new direct information content. We know they're going slowly. We know they're being cautious. We know they're being flexible. What was new was the weight of risks," said McCarthy. "She heaped them on. She came off as being uncertain about the outlook for growth, inflation and therefore monetary policy. ... If the price of everything goes up then she'll be convinced they've finally beaten back deflation."

Markets took her words as dovish and stocks rose, the dollar weakened and bond yields fell, particularly the Fed-sensitive two-year note yield. That note slipped to 0.78 percent from 0.84 percent before her speech. Bank stocks fell with declining yields.

"Curiously, for a central bank presumably in the middle of a tightening cycle, Yellen's speech focused more on downside risks that those to the upside," wrote Dana Saporta, director of economic research at Credit Suisse. Saporta said she expects Yellen would have been just as dovish had the other Fed officials not called for rate hikes.

Traders also focused on her comments that progress has been made in inflation measures, but that she sees inflation remaining low this year and the prospect of down readings concerns her.
"The major thing that changed since December and March that affects the baseline outlook is the slightly weaker-than-expected pace of global growth," Yellen said in response to a question after her speech.

Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics said the Fed chair "caged the hawks" on the FOMC and she ultimately is the most important vote on the committee.

"We see her desire to really experiment and let the unemployment rate fall further. She's given herself wiggle room with the data. Obviously, data dependent means something else. It means 'subjective data dependence.' ... Glacial is now an overstatement for Fed rate hikes. We'll probably get one in June but I also think we'll get two dissents in April. This is going to be confusing for markets over this tug of war to raise rates or not."

"I don't think she meant to pull back markets as much as she did. ... I think the reaction to it is because it stands in such bold contrast to: 'Let's go, let's go, let's go,'" said Swonk

She said Yellen believes that there could be persistently low inflation even in a lower unemployment environment where employers do not increase wages, sparking inflation.

Markets also priced out a full rate hike for 2016 immediately following Yellen's comments, and according to RBS, the odds for a rate rise fell to 25 percent for June from 32 percent. The expectation for a full rate hike by December dropped to a 90 percent chance.
"One of the challenges of transparency is when you're transparent during a period where policy is in flux, and new things are being tested. In being transparent, you're also exposing vulnerability and that's what we're seeing here," said Saporta.
Read MoreShock cuts to Q1 GDP show economy could be faltering

John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas at RBS, said Yellen was not so much countering the hawkish comments but reinforcing the March FOMC statement.
"How much of this is keeping markets on your side to gain time for overseas concerns? The Fed gets very involved in the markets so it's hard to tell," said Briggs. "Either way, her comments are conducive for easier financial conditions for the United States."

Yellen did say the U.S. economy and labor situation in particular are making progress, but her concerns suggest a very slow path of rate hikes. She also said the Fed has the ability to be accommodative. Recent data have been mixed and economists cut the median first-quarter GDP growth tracking estimate to just 0.9 percent Monday after weaker consumer spending data and a wider trade gap.

"I think it depends on all of the things she's really focusing on — inflation expectations, overseas and whether the U.S. economy holds up. Certainly what she's doing is helping weaken the dollar which helps out the overseas side, keeps rates low and stocks higher," said Briggs
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 30, 2016, 11:38:51 AM



2016年03月30日 06:12 AM
耶伦谨慎言论使美国加息前景渺茫
英国《金融时报》 萨姆•弗莱明 华盛顿报道
 

美国加息前景昨日进一步渺茫。珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)主张谨慎,理由是市场条件不利、海外增长弱于预期以及通胀前景不确定。

美联储(Federal Reserve)主席称,近来市场降低加息预期,已经帮助缓解了海外不利事态给美国带来的冲击,她形容这些举动是一种“自动稳定器”。

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但是,她强调称,如果美国意外陷入停滞,美联储没有什么空间可以逆转政策进程,通过降息来刺激经济,这突显了逐渐收紧政策的必要性。在纽约发表讲话期间,她着重指出中国以及石油市场仍在发酵的种种风险,并据此主张美国央行在考虑何时再次加息时应该谨慎行动。

在耶伦发表讲话后,美国国债上涨,CRT Capital的交易员称耶伦的言论“是对当前政策立场和短期前景的出乎意料的鸽派评估”。两年期国债收益率(与价格走势相反)下滑6个基点,至0.81%。


“无论此前美联储官员传达了(有关4月加息的)何种推测,现在都已经烟消云散了,”花旗集团(Citigroup)的利率策略主管史蒂文•英格兰德(Steven Englander)称。

美国股市从早盘的跌势反弹,基准的标普500指数(S&P 500)收市时升至今年最高水平,报2055.01,同时美元汇率下滑至一周来最低水平。

译者/何黎
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on March 31, 2016, 05:52:52 AM



Why the Fed rate talk was 'a bunch of nonsense'
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
2 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
59
SHARES
25
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The Federal Reserve was never hiking rates four times this year. Investors didn't believe it, and now Fed Chair Janet Yellen has all but explicitly acknowledged it.

Indeed, Yellen's blockbuster speech Tuesday assuring that the central bank would go slowly on future adjustments to monetary policy only caught some of the market by surprise. Others realized there was virtually no chance of a hawkish Fed in 2016.

"Central bankers at the Fed bark but they won't bite," Peter Schiff, frequent Fed critic and founder of Euro Pacific Capital, told CNBC.com. "I knew all that talk was a bunch of nonsense."

Read MoreMarket's message to the Fed: We don't believe you
At their December meeting, Federal Open Market Committee officials indicated that the likely level for their interest rate target by the end of the year would be about 1 percentage point higher than it was at the end of 2015, translating to four quarter-point hikes.

Events afterward were a roller coaster: A violent market reaction lower, dueling public comments from Fed officials alternating between hawkish and dovish, a market rally, then, most recently, strongly dovish language after the March FOMC meeting and then Yellen's speech.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
Mary Schwalm | Reuters
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
There was a point recently where markets were beginning to buy a rate-hiking Fed, with expectations of a move around midyear and, possibly, a second in December.

No more.

After Yellen's speech, the market believes the only likely increase will come in November or December, which are showing respective probabilities of 50 percent and 62 percent, according to the CME. Fed fund futures don't have a full quarter-point hike technically priced in until March 2017.

Read MoreJPMorgan's Lebovitz: Yellen's message? 'Relax'
"Her strident dovishness causes us to lower our projected number of rate increases this year to possibly one in September or even as late as December," Citigroup economist William Lee said in a note that echoed the widely held Wall Street sentiment after the central bank chief spoke.

Yellen's comments reflected a variety of fears, much of them centered on the global landscape.

As David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, pointed out, she used the word "global" 11 times, which was seven more than her speech to Congress in February, and "uncertainty" 10 times, up from three in the last speech.

The remarks came amid a deteriorating economic picture, though a U.S. recession still is considered unlikely by most economists. The Atlanta Fed now expects gross domestic product to gain just 0.6 percent in the first quarter, down from about 2.7 percent in early February. The Atlanta Fed's GDP-based recession indicator shows just a 10 percent chance of recession, though that has not been updated since Feb. 4.

"Whenever a central banker is uncertain, rest assured that the only certainty is that he or she does nothing," Rosenberg said in his daily report for clients. "That was the message from Yellen's speech. Rate risk is off the table, but the reasons for it — a lack of growth visibility — are why investors did not bid up stocks even more so despite her overt dovish tone."
The market, of course, embraced Yellen's dovish tone, though the gains cooled a bit as Wednesday trading continued. The Fed, with its seven years of zero rates and $3.7 trillion worth of money printing, has faced criticism for being too market sensitive. Citigroup's Lee called Yellen's speech "a remarkable transfer to markets of the FOMC's authority to set future policy rates."

For investors, the question ahead will be how long the Fed can continue to keep the market afloat. Ultra-accommodative monetary policy is showing its limits in other countries, and Yellen's narrative that the dovish tone is being inspired by global weakness, not in the U.S., is gathering skeptics.

"If anything, I would say the global problems have subsided since December," Euro Pacific's Schiff said. "The real problem is the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy is weakening,"

Schiff said he thinks the Fed may attempt a rate hike this year, but any efforts at tightening won't last.

"The economy already is in recession," he said. "The question is, when is the Fed going to acknowledge it."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 01, 2016, 02:18:05 PM



2016: The End Of The Global Debt Super Cycle
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2016 21:00 -0400

Alan Greenspan Apple Bear Market Bear Stearns Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke Bond Central Banks Commercial Real Estate Fail Federal Reserve Global Economy Great Depression High Yield Home Equity Housing Bubble Housing Prices Japan Lehman Market Crash Merrill Merrill Lynch Moral Hazard Mortgage Backed Securities Quantitative Easing Real estate Recession Sovereign Debt Volatility White House Yield Curve


 
inShare
9
 
Submitted by Etai Friedman via Palisade-Research.com,

After the stock market crash of 1987, The Federal Reserve embarked on a path that led to the biggest debt bubble in the history of the world. The day after the 1987 crash (Oct. 20, 1987) Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Fed, announced to the world that The Fed stood ready to provide whatever liquidity was needed by the banking system to prevent the crash from turning into a systemic financial crisis. That was the day the Fed “put” was born.

 



 


A put is an option that allows its owner to sell a specified amount of a particular asset at a predetermined price by a specific date. As an example, if an investor had a February 90 put on Apple’s stock that investor would have the right to sell 100 shares at 90 a share until the third Friday in February when the option expired. An investor would only exercise that put if Apple’s stock price dropped below 90 a share before expiration. As it stands Apple’s stock price is 94.02 as of Friday’s close so no rational investor would exercise that put. But if on Monday Apple’s stock crashed and was trading 60 a share than the investor would exercise his put and gladly sell his stock at 90 a share to the person who sold him the put. So in effect after 1987 The Fed was acting as a giant put for the financial markets, a role it had heretofore not played.

In September of 1998 Long Term Capital Management, a highly leveraged high profile hedge fund, sustained losses that threatened its solvency. The fund with a few billion in equity had $80 billion in assets and all of its trades were going against the firm. LTCM’s equity was going to be wiped out within days. Warren Buffet and a consortium of investors offered to bail out the fund by paying fire sale prices for the assets and shutting down the fund. LTCM’s management balked and looked to The Fed for a better solution. The Fed engineered a bailout by numerous banks that left LTCM’s management in place with some of their wealth to spare. Once again, The Fed intervened in a market calamity and this time bailed out an extremely reckless hedge fund that should have been allowed to fail. The Fed’s put engendered moral hazard in the hedge fund community by allowing reckless and destabilizing behavior to go unpunished.

In December of 1999, The Fed injected enormous amounts of liquidity into the banking system to fend off any potential problems from the Y2K problem. If you recall, The Fed was worried that banking computer systems might erroneously register 1900 as the year on January 1, 2000 due to perceived deficiencies in banking software. To avert any panic, The Fed stuffed money into the banking system to make sure no calamities ensued. The stock market which was already in the midst of a mania in the tech sector effectively had kerosene poured on the fire. The extra banking liquidity found its way into the stock market and sent the tech bubble into overdrive. After the new year passed without so much as a hiccup The Fed withdrew the excess liquidity and the tech bubble peaked in March 2000 and then collapsed.

This is where the story of the debt bubble begins. Prior interventions by The Fed promoted moral hazard and rampant speculation but up to this point they did not need to employ debt to prop up the U.S. economy. That all changed after the internet stock mania collapsed, trillions in wealth was destroyed, and the U.S. economy went into recession. The Fed was once again worried that the crash in technology stocks would cause a systemic financial crisis so they embarked on an interest rate cutting program that saw the Fed Funds Rate drop from 6.5% to 1% from 2000 to 2003. This in effect morphed the tech stock bubble into a housing bubble. Adjustable rate mortgage yields plunged in value and accelerated a housing boom already in progress. The public, encouraged by low rates and lax underwriting standards stampeded into housing sending prices through the roof. Mortgage debt exploded and home equity values skyrocketed buffeting the tech collapse induced recession. The average American increased their leverage to all-time highs. Figure 1 shows that by the fourth quarter of 2007 household debt payments as a percentage of disposable income hit a record 13.2% up from 10.5% just 15 years earlier.

Figure 1

1

The Fed meanwhile did not normalize rates until 2005 when the Fed Funds Rate was back up to 4% on its way to 5.25% by 2006, the year the housing boom peaked.  Total debt in the U.S. went from $18 trillion in 2001 to $30 trillion by 2007. Comparatively speaking it took 35 years for total debt in the U.S. to go from under $1 trillion to $4 trillion. As we all know the collapse in housing prices revealed that trillions in mortgage backed securities were not actually AAA rated and the collapse in value of these securities almost took the financial system with them.

Large investment banks, like Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch, became insolvent and were forced to merge with better capitalized banks. Lehman Bros. was allowed to fail and brought the global financial system to its knees. The Fed, now headed by Ben Bernanke, went into overdrive slashing the Fed Funds rate to zero percent and essentially backstopping all financial institutions and depositors’ cash and near cash investments.

A new tool was introduced by The Fed, called Quantitative Easing, which allowed The Fed to purchase mortgage backed securities and other long dated debt to push down long term interest rates and encourage lending. Rates at both the front end and the back end of the yield curve plunged to historic lows with the hope that people and businesses would begin to borrow again and get the economy growing. These extreme measures stopped the free fall in financial assets and began a six-year expansion that was both meager and debt fueled.

During and following The Global Financial Crisis consumers in some developed countries deleveraged but the rest of the economy, namely governments and businesses, leveraged up. From the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2015 total debt in the U.S. increased from $30 trillion to $40 trillion. Globally, total debt grew from $142 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2007 to $200 trillion in the second quarter of 2014, an increase of $58 trillion. Total global debt as a percentage of global GDP grew from 269% in 2007 to 286% in 2014. The massive central bank intervention during The Global Financial Crisis prevented a deleveraging of the global economy and actually encouraged more leverage to stimulate growth. Once again the planet was borrowing from future growth to propel current growth. This was indeed a short sighted solution to an existential crisis faced by the world. Kicking the can down to 2016 has now come to its logical end.

During 2015 the strength of the global economy began to be questioned as commodity prices collapsed, Chinese economic growth slowed, and global trade slowed. For the first time since the European Sovereign Debt Crisis credit spreads began to widen and low rated corporate debt and leveraged loans began declining in value. As seen by Figure 2 Corporate Net Debt to Ebitda rose to record levels while Ebitda began to decline.

Figure 2

2

Declining oil prices crushed low rated high yield energy debt. Figure 3 shows that prices of CCC rated debt collapsed in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Figure 3

3

Also in the first quarter of 2016 low rated commercial real estate debt plunged in value as seen in Figure 4.

Figure 4

4

The credit markets are signaling that the debt fueled expansion that began in 2010 is turning to bust. This is the most precarious moment in financial market history because as the world slides into recession global central banks have no ability to soften the oncoming recession with debt creation. Globally interest rates are close to zero and even negative in Europe and Japan. Long term government bond yields are also extremely low. This is sending a very clear and ominous signal that the world cannot service more debt and in fact needs to deleverage and get on more solid financial footing.

The last time the world deleveraged was during The Great Depression. The defining quality of The Great Depression was the destructive deflation that gripped the economy. Deflation destroys financial asset values like stocks and corporate bonds and hard assets like real estate. It also lowers incomes while making debt more expensive to service as debt to income ratios rise. The world economy is on the precipice of another Great Depression.

This state of affairs demands a dramatic repositioning of investment portfolios. Investors who choose to remain passive but want to preserve their wealth need to liquidate their investments in stocks and corporate bonds and hold cash only.  Investors who are more opportunistic can hold a combination of cash and U.S. government bonds. U.S. government bonds have already begun to rally so buying at current levels is not quite as attractive as it was a month ago but we expect negative interest rates to eventually visit America so there is still considerable upside. Figure 5 shows that inflation expectations continue to plunge even as The Fed erroneously is raising interest rates.

Figure 5

5

The more aggressive investor can find opportunities to earn high returns employing strategies that will benefit from a financial collapse and a severe, deflationary recession. These strategies include shorting stock index futures, getting long VIX futures, etfs, and options, getting long stock index option volatility via index etfs, and on a limited basis shorting individual company stocks whose business plans will be acutely affected by economic developments.

We would not simply be short financial assets every day because we recognize that the markets will initially be quite volatile which means sharp bear market rallies in between dramatic declines in financial assets. We would initially be positioned to benefit from this two-way volatility and as the declines become more severe and investors begin to throw in the towel the fund will be more short oriented.

We recognize that The Fed will not sit idly by as this bear market intensifies. However limited their options they will employ them and they may provide brief respite from the bear market. We believe The Fed will stop raising interest rates and begin cutting them in 2016 taking them into negative territory. We also believe The Fed will embark on QE4, although it is not clear what assets they will purchase. What is clear is that rate cuts and QE4 will offer brief pauses in financial asset declines but will not ultimately arrest those declines.

Major fiscal policy adjustments will be needed and this will depend on who takes the White House in 2017. A Democratic win would be a negative while a Republican win by certain candidates may pave the way for major fiscal policy changes. For instance, Ted Cruz’s flat tax would be particularly beneficial and soften the blow of the economic contraction as more money will be directly put into Americans’ hands.

We also believe the next President needs to strip The Fed of their dual mandate of price stability and full employment. The Fed should no longer be tasked with ensuring full employment and debt creation should be disincentivized through changes to the tax code.

Lastly, we would like to highlight we take no pleasure in what we see coming to pass in the financial markets and simply wants to offer investors the opportunity to earn high returns in what otherwise will be an environment devoid of financial opportunities and of declining employmen
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 01, 2016, 02:29:43 PM



公然造反?亞特蘭大FED打臉葉倫,力挺今年升息三次
回應(0) 人氣(502) 收藏(0) 2016/04/01 09:21
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-01 09:21:08 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
聯準會(FED)高層間的矛盾衝突似乎有加遽的跡象,葉倫主席周二才發表談話力主放慢升息腳步,但時隔不到48個小時,就被旗下的地方諸侯公開打臉。

FED亞特蘭大分行總裁洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)周四接受日經新聞訪問時表示,美國今年至少有三次升息的本錢,如果整體經濟數據夠強的話,第一次升息不是四月就是六月發動,擺明不甩葉倫主張。

洛克哈特立場偏向鷹派(厭惡通膨),今年具有投票權。有鑑於年初金融動盪,洛克哈特在三月貨幣決策會議上同意暫緩升息,但隨著美國通膨回升、製造業景氣改善,加上二月就業報告強勁,讓他對升息的意志轉強。美國周五稍晚將公佈三月份就業報告,如過結果優於預期,可能強化鷹派對四月升息的論述。

FED上次會議公佈利率意向點陣圖(dot plot)時,有位不知身份的官員主張今年應升息超過兩次,外界一度爭辯可能是FED副主席費雪(Stanley Fischer)或是洛克哈特,是誰現在應該很清楚了


全文網址: http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=c36f706f-a686-4c7c-8330-30c0133ca557&c=MB010000#ixzz44YKAzJLk
MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 01, 2016, 02:30:58 PM



無視葉倫「鴿」聲送暖!高盛重申:Fed今年將升息3次
回應(0) 人氣(329) 收藏(0) 2016/04/01 12:11
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-01 12:11:22 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯準會(Fed)葉倫(Janet Yellen,見圖)本週二(3月30日)才剛發表完相當偏向鴿派的看法,但高盛(Goldman Sachs Group)卻不買帳,堅稱Fed今(2016)年會三度升息,比聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)預估的還要多出一次。
華爾街日報報導,高盛資深經濟學家Zach Pandl 31日在接受專訪時表示,Fed會在6月、9月與12月分別升息一次。高盛的看法明顯比其他券商偏向鷹派,舉例來說,摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)僅預期Fed今年會升息兩次。Pandl隸屬於高盛首席經濟學家Jan Hatzius帶領的團隊。
不過,高盛首席信用策略師Charles Himmelberg卻認為,Fed或許會等到今年下半年才會開槍。他說,全球經濟成長疑慮再起、葉倫發表鴿派言論,讓市場氣氛在第1季激烈震盪,因此,預估Fed會等到下半年再來升息,屆時美國的成長將使失業率下降、核心通膨率上升。

雖然Fed五名官員上週陸續發表鷹派聲明,但本週在葉倫的帶領下,芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行總裁Charles Evans 31日卻宣稱他認為今年升息兩次的做法相當合理,預估升息的時間點一次會落在年中、另一次則會落在12月。
fxstreet.com報導,紐約聯邦儲備銀行總裁William Dudley 31日也發表演說指出,市場對通膨的疑慮其實是杞人憂天,但美國經濟體質仍相對較佳。他說,葉倫傳達的訊息是,假如經濟照當前的步伐繼續前進,那麼央行將會緩步升息。他重申,Fed會繼續抱持謹慎的態度,因為全球經濟依舊充滿不確定性。
一向被視為葉倫人馬的舊金山聯邦儲備銀行總裁John C. Williams 3月28日在接受CNBC亞洲頻道「Asia Squawk Box」專訪時則又再度重申了鷹派看法,認為美國經濟其實相當不錯,不但通膨穩定、就業成長也頗為強勁,真正的問題來自全球的金融與經濟發展,因為美元和美國經濟究竟會受到那些衝擊,依舊充滿不確定性。
在被問到Fed官員為何對貨幣政策看法紛呈時,Williams堅稱,其實大家對FOMC的基本策略都相當認同,就是要逐漸移除寬鬆政策、在未來幾年調高利率,有爭議的主要在升息的時間點與調整的速度,而這一切都要看經濟數據如何發展


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 05, 2016, 06:22:13 PM



Fed's Evans says needs to be aggressive to get up to inflation targets
3 Hours Ago
Reuters
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Charles Evans, president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Melody Hahm | CNBC
Charles Evans, president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
The U.S. central bank has to be proactive and aggressive to get up to the Federal Reserve's inflation targets, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

U.S. inflation measures have shown some recent strength, with the Fed's preferred annual measure flat at 1.7 percent in February, though still below its target of 2 percent.


Janet Yellen
Nail salon jobs mean no Fed rate hikes in 2016: Pro
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a press conference following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting in Washington March 16, 2016.
Why the Fed rate talk was 'a bunch of nonsense'
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York March 29, 2016.
Yellen: Appropriate to proceed cautiously

After having raised rates for the first time in a decade in December, the U.S. central bank stood pat in January and again in mid-March, when it cited weakness overseas and an early-year market sell-off that has since reversed.

Evans, who has been pushing for only two rate hikes this year, repeated that risks to the economy are tilted to the downside.

He does not have a vote on policy this year, but does take part in the Fed's regular policy-setting meetings
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 07, 2016, 10:14:13 AM



FED升息兩次都嫌多!大摩:頂多一次、最快年底動手
回應(0) 人氣(147) 收藏(0) 2016/04/07 08:41
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-07 08:41:22 記者 陳苓 報導
美國聯準會(FED)暗示升息次數砍半,從四次減為兩次,然而摩根士丹利投資管理(Morgan Stanley Investment Management、大摩)認為,其實兩次都算多,今年FED頂多升息一次,而且可能拖到12月才敢動手。
巴倫(Barronˋs)網站6日報導,大摩固定收益投資組合經理人Jim Caron表示,從FED 3月會議紀錄看來,4月升息幾乎無望,他對此毫不訝異。他說,FED 3月才把升息預期減半,這是一大改變,不大可能腰斬之後,又在4月升息。
Caron估計,就算6月升息都嫌太快,應該要到12月才會動手。年初金融市場急遽緊縮,未來幾個月殘存的衝擊仍會影響經濟活動,因此6月不宜升息。美國11月將舉行總統大選,市場風險提高,因此第三季也不適合升息,可能要到12月才有辦法宣布調高利率。

華爾街日報報導,市場也認為4月升息無望,聯邦基金利率期貨顯示,投資人估計4月升息機率為3%。6月升息則為22%。
高盛看法則和大摩恰恰相反。FED主席葉倫3月30日發表完相當偏向鴿派的看法,但高盛(Goldman Sachs Group)卻不買帳,堅稱Fed今年會三度升息,比聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)預估的還要多出一次。
華爾街日報報導,高盛資深經濟學家Zach Pandl 3月31日接受專訪時表示,Fed會在6月、9月與12月分別升息一次。高盛的看法明顯比其他券商偏向鷹派,舉例來說,摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)僅預期Fed今年會升息兩次。Pandl隸屬於高盛首席經濟學家Jan Hatzius帶領的團隊。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 07, 2016, 10:16:18 AM



FOMC會議紀錄:全球景氣逆風吹襲,四月升息障礙重重
回應(0) 人氣(408) 收藏(0) 2016/04/07 07:27
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-07 07:27:56 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
聯準會(FED)公佈三月份FOMC會議紀錄指出,官員對上半年升息態度謹慎,原因是擔心外部風險,而FED對此的應變能力有限。(路透社)

FOMC為FED旗下貨幣決策單位,會議紀錄顯示,FOMC雖然曾對四月升息有過辯論,但與會委員一般同意全球景氣逆風,以及金融情勢對美國經濟的威脅仍然存在,在此狀況下,部分委員強力主張FED不應太過急躁。

據路透社報導,芝加哥商業交易所(CME)利率期貨資料顯示,投資人預期四月升息的機率接近於零,只有十二月升息的機率稍高點。

聖路易分行總裁布拉德(James Bullard)周三表示,三月FOMC會議過後,美國經濟數據好壞參半,這將使得FED難以在下一次會議升息。

FED在去年底開出升息的第一槍,當時曾暗示今年將再升息四次,不過三月FOMC會議已將升息預估次數縮減至兩次,時間點則是一再往後遞延。

值得一提的是,FOMC三月會議以9比1的票數通過暫緩升息,但會議紀錄顯示,當時其實有兩位委員支持升息,一位是堪薩斯分行總裁喬琪(Esther George),另一位身份雖然並未公開,但猜想應該是亞特蘭大分行總裁洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)。(華爾街日報


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 08, 2016, 06:05:52 AM



Is the Fed losing sight of inflation?
Mark Haefele, global CIO at UBS Wealth Management
8 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
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Inflation in the U.S. has picked up in recent months, toward the top end of Federal Reserve forecasts.

While several Fed officials remain focused on building inflationary pressures, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has recently struck a dovish tone, stressing her concerns about global growth and financial conditions as reasons to proceed cautiously with interest-rate hikes.



Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Pete Marovich | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Some investors, balancing the doves' and hawks' views, are concerned the Fed may prioritize "full employment" over price stability, and that, by waiting too long to act, the Fed will be forced into a rapid series of growth-killing hikes. The minutes from the March Federal Open Markets Committee meeting indicated some uncertainty, with a mix of participants' views as to whether the pickup in U.S. prices was "consistent with a firming trend" or was "unlikely to be sustained."

Looking at the data and the Fed's deliberations, should investors be worried that the Fed is losing sight of inflation?

A number of recent data points have helped convince markets that inflation is indeed heading higher. The core personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) rose 1.7 percent year-over-year in both January and February, accelerating from 1.3 percent just five months before. The increase in prices was broad-based.




Janet Yellen
The Fed 'is a god that has failed': George Gilder
Most tellingly, service-sector inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index for services excluding energy, rose 3.1 percent in the year to February. That's important because it closely reflects domestic wage pressures. It finally seems that the low jobless rate, which was at 5 percent in March, is starting to feed through into accelerating inflation.

Trends in foreign exchange and commodity markets have recently been pushing in the same direction. The dollar fell 3.8 percent in March on a trade-weighted basis, its largest monthly decline since September 2010. This has the potential to add to the inflationary momentum by lifting import prices. And the price of oil has now rebounded around 40 percent from February lows, back towards levels seen in December last year.

Yet Yellen has stressed risks to global growth and said she anticipates "only gradual" rate rises over the coming years. This tallies with the view of several Fed members in March "… that a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent … [noting] their concern that raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate."
U.S. President Barack Obama delivers remarks on the economy in the White House press briefing room in Washington April 5, 2016.
Kudlow: This is a war on tax inversions
It is too soon for equity investors to worry that the Fed will need to rush rate increases in order to dampen inflationary pressures. Yellen has made a point of signaling that the Fed will be willing to let inflation run closer to or above target for longer before reacting, judging that the risks of inflation getting out of hand at some point in the future are not as large as the risk of acting too soon and choking economic recovery.
U.S. growth remains moderate. Global overcapacity, a strong trade-weighted dollar, and still tepid external demand should act as a counterbalance to U.S. inflation, even if wage gains surprise more positively.
We should remember that the Fed doesn't set policy in a vacuum. If inflation rates outside the U.S. fail to respond to stimulus and prompt further monetary easing abroad, even slow Fed hikes could lead to the dollar strength that is its own form of tighter monetary policy.
423 Park Avenue in New York.
This real estate market is headed for a crash
The bottom line is that it does not seem as though the Fed is losing sight of inflation, or running behind the curve. Recent economic data and still modest global growth conditions justify only gradual U.S. rate rises through 2016. Still-accommodative Fed policy and an expected pickup in equity earnings support our overweight U.S. equity position in global portfolios, and we still expect equities and credit to end the year higher.

Commentary by Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management, overseeing the investment strategy for $2 trillion in invested assets. Follow him on LinkedIn at www.linkedin.com/in/markhaefele
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 08, 2016, 08:24:22 AM



Yellen: Positive about progress in ending 'too big to fail'
Jacob Pramuk   | @jacobpramuk
1 Hour Ago
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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday touted the strength of the United States economy, rebuffing political rhetoric suggesting a bubble is ready to burst.

"I certainly wouldn't describe this as a bubble economy," Yellen said, noting a "healing" labor market and a 5 percent headline unemployment number.

Yellen appeared on a panel with former Fed Chairs Ben Bernanke, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan at the International House in New York. The U.S. central bank heads discussed the U.S. economy and monetary policy around the globe.

Yellen's comments come soon after Republican presidential contender Donald Trump's contention that an economic bubble could burst. Yellen noted that she did not see "imbalances" like "clearly overvalued" asset prices.

Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen (L to R) and former Federal Reserve chairs Ben Bernanke and Paul Volcker appear together for the first time in New York, April 7, 2016. The panel is geared toward millennials and focused on decision-making with international implications.
Kathy Willens | Pool | Reuters
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen (L to R) and former Federal Reserve chairs Ben Bernanke and Paul Volcker appear together for the first time in New York, April 7, 2016. The panel is geared toward millennials and focused on decision-making with international implications.
While Volcker admitted he saw some "overextended" pieces of the financial system, he concurred, saying he does not believe a bubble exists.

Yellen added that the global economy has seen "relatively weak" growth despite positive signs in the U.S. The Fed has taken a cautious approach on raising interest rates this year after hiking its target in December for the first time in nearly a decade. The bank's policy committee now projects two rate hikes this year.

Yellen said she did not consider the December decision a mistake, as indicators at the time showed "substantial" progress toward the Fed's labor market and inflation goals. Moving forward, she noted the Fed would "watch very carefully what is happening in the economy."

"We remain on a reasonable path and a don't think that December was a mistake," she said.


Market crisis
The end of these two trends spells market trouble

THIS is giving policymakers indigestion: Economist

As it decides on how quickly to boost rates, the Fed has dealt with a sagging global economy and U.S. inflation below its target. The Fed's tightening path comes as other central banks around the globe, including those in Europe and Japan, have eased.

The policy committee next meets on April 26 and 27.
Some Fed observers have questioned how the central bank could respond to a possible recession with policy already accommodative. Bernanke noted Thursday that fiscal policy "does have a role to play" on top of monetary policy.

Greenspan added that monetary policy "should not have the whole load" of combating an economic slowdown. However, he cautioned against creating more debt with increased government spending.

Ending 'too big to fail'

Yellen also addressed a recent crusade by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who has floated breaking up large banks to increase financial system stability. She noted that she shared Kashkari's concern about ending firms' "too big to fail" status.

But she said policies like capital and liquidity requirements and stress tests have "greatly enhanced the safety and soundness of the banking system."

"I feel more positive on the progress that we've made," Yellen said.
She said she believes the issue is within Kashkari's purview, noting that the Fed's decentralized structure allows independent views
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 08, 2016, 08:35:58 AM



 
Friday, 08 April 2016 07:29
Fed's Yellen says US still on track for MORE RATE HIKES
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  Fed's Yellen says US still on track for MORE RATE HIKES
NEW YORK - The US economy is on a solid course and still on track to warrant further interest rate hikes, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday (Apr 7).

Speaking at a panel with former chiefs of the US central bank, Yellen said the labour market was "close" to full strength and that inflation was currently held back by temporary factors. - Reuters



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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 08, 2016, 08:44:29 AM



狠甩葉倫耳光!消費信貸攀升加速,反映美國經濟好的很
回應(0) 人氣(5) 收藏(0) 2016/04/08 08:08
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-08 08:08:35 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
聯準會(FED)對景氣沒信心,但美國消費者可沒這麼悲觀,隨著勞動市場復甦上軌道,消費者借錢消費意願跟著升高,成為支撐美國經濟成長的重要支柱。

美國聯邦準備理事會(FED)週四公佈,2月份消費者信貸餘額來到3兆5,676億美元,月增172億美元,不僅高於前月的149億美元,也優於經濟學家預估的140億美元。

消費信貸換算年增率來到5.8%,亦高於前月的4.1%,反映消費者對經濟前景信心增加,與FED主席葉倫,以及其它鴿派官員的優柔寡斷,動則將全球風險掛在嘴邊,對升息猶豫不決形成強烈對比。

FED維持低利率也是鼓勵民眾借錢消費的一種手段,但從另一的角度觀察,若沒有經濟基本面做後盾,消費者也不一定買單,如日本央行(BOJ)即使降至負利率,但日本民眾還是不為所動,對消費興致缺缺,原因在於對日本經濟展望沒信心。

細項數據顯示,當月非循環信用貸款(例如:學生貸款、汽車貸款、房屋貸款)餘額月增143億美元,年增率達6.6%;循環類信用貸款(主要來自信用卡)增加29億美元,年增率攀升3.7%,高於於前月的負0.3%。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 08, 2016, 03:22:33 PM



葉倫:全球景氣弱、美國絕非泡沫經濟、強勢美元OK
回應(0) 人氣(829) 收藏(0) 2016/04/08 09:22
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-08 09:22:16 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯準會(Fed)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen,見圖)7日在紐約國際公寓(International House)與Fed歷任主席柏南克(Ben Bernanke)、沃爾克(Paul Volcker)和葛林斯班(Alan Greenspan)展開圓桌會議,從談話內容來看,Fed至今還不敢升息,顯然是受到國際總經颳來逆風的影響,葉倫對美國國內景氣依舊相對樂觀。
MarktWatch、CNBC等多家外電,葉倫7日指出,利率未來會繼續緩慢上揚,而升息後美國經濟仍持續改善、顯示去(2015)年12月的升息行動是正確決定。
她表示,Fed並未對美元設下特定目標,強勢美元雖會拖累經濟,但消費者支出仍舊強勁、足以抵銷影響。

葉倫同時指出,她目前正在試圖拉高通膨,美國經濟已步上正軌、絕非泡沫經濟。針對民主黨總統候選人桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)直指華爾街對Fed影響過鉅的批評,葉倫則完全不同意。
葉倫並表示,Fed對自身的資產負債表早已擬定應對策略,她完全不會擔心,去年12月的升息決策顯示,Fed的資產負債表規模就算很龐大(在金融海嘯期間膨脹近3兆美元至4.5兆美元)、依舊可以收緊貨幣政策。
葛林斯班則指出,若覺得Fed在行動時完全不必考慮全世界的動態,是相當愚蠢的想法。葉倫也說,她正在觀察國際局勢,也會固定與國際央行官員們會面,而當美國表現良好時、對全球經濟通常有加分的效果。她並說,全球經濟依舊「相對疲弱」。
Fed暗示升息次數砍半,從四次減為兩次,然而摩根士丹利投資管理(Morgan Stanley Investment Management、大摩)認為,其實兩次都算多,今年FED頂多升息一次,而且可能拖到12月才敢動手。
巴倫(Barronˋs)網站6日報導,大摩固定收益投資組合經理人Jim Caron表示,從FED 3月會議紀錄看來,4月升息幾乎無望,他對此毫不訝異。他說,FED 3月才把升息預期減半,這是一大改變,不大可能腰斬之後,又在4月升息。
Caron估計,就算6月升息都嫌太快,應該要到12月才會動手。年初金融市場急遽緊縮,未來幾個月殘存的衝擊仍會影響經濟活動,因此6月不宜升息。美國11月將舉行總統大選,市場風險提高,因此第三季也不適合升息,可能要到12月才有辦法宣布調高利率。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 08, 2016, 03:35:28 PM



堪薩斯FED開槍獵鴿,警告美商用房地產泡泡浮現
回應(0) 人氣(199) 收藏(0) 2016/04/08 13:51
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-08 13:51:30 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
聯準會(FED)地區分行最近習慣與主席唱反調,葉倫周四說美國經濟沒有泡沫化之虞,但話才說出口就被堪薩斯分行總裁喬琪(Esther George)打槍。

喬琪表示,美國商用房地產已有泡沫化徵兆,需密切注意,她進一步主張FED應堅守緊縮貨幣政策的立場,維持和緩升息的步調不變。

喬琪警告,FED升息節奏如未能跟上經濟成長腳步,恐使資本配置扭曲,並朝無效率或風險資產過度集中。歷史殷鑑不遠,2008年金融海嘯就是由房地產泡沫化引發,起因則是FED長期維持低利率,造成房地產只漲不跌的假象所致。

FED三月決定延後第二次升息時程,雖然葉倫開口閉口不離「謹慎」兩字,擔心外部局勢衝擊美國,但從另一個角度觀察,向鴿派傾斜的葉倫其實賭很大,她不僅輕忽喬琪所指的資產泡沫化風險,還押寶通膨不至於加速,使得未來升息曲線變陡對經濟造成更大傷害


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 09, 2016, 06:55:04 AM



Why Janet Yellen Can Never Normalize Interest Rates
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/08/2016 17:45 -0400

Bank of Japan Bond China default European Central Bank Insurance Companies Janet Yellen Japan JPMorgan Chase Rate of Change Recession


 
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Submitted by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum),

No Return to Normal

Overall, world stocks have held up well, despite cascading evidence of impending doom.

U.S. corporate profits have been in decline since the second quarter of 2015. Globally, 36 corporate bond issues have defaulted so far this year – up from 25 during the same period of 2015. Economists at JPMorgan Chase put the U.S. economy growth rate for the first quarter at 0.7% – down by over one-third from earlier estimates.

 

1-pretax corporate earnings

Annual rate of change in quarterly pre-tax profits: nothing to write home about. A  small “profits recession” incidentally preceded the last economic downturn as well – click to enlarge.

 

And there is $1.7 trillion in junk bonds outstanding – a trillion more than in 2008. Some of these are sure to default in the months ahead. Speculators are already shorting the banks with the biggest piles of these grenades in their vaults.

Over the last few days, we’ve been trying to coax out an insight. It concerns whether Fed chief Janet Yellen really does have investors’ backs. Not that we have any doubt about her intentions.

Her career has been financed and nurtured by credit and the people who provide it. Crony capitalists, corrupt politicians, and Deep State hustlers paid good money for her; she’ll do all she can to avoid letting them down.

 

2-BKX-SPX ratio

Bank stocks vs. the S&P 500 Index: something isn’t right in financial land – click to enlarge.

 

But something isn’t working. Not for her. Not for Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Not for the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Not for People’s Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan. Their tricks no longer work.

We’re on record with a bold prediction: The Fed will NEVER normalize interest rates. Readers may wonder how that jives with our deeper insight: Nobody knows anything. And of course, we don’t know whether the Fed will normalize or not. But let us further explain our reasoning; you make up your own mind as to where to place your bet.

 

Card_house_cartoon_12.03.2014_large

They’ve built a big house of cards…and they presumably realize it by now (how can they not?)

 

The short version of our argument: For the last eight years, the Fed has tried to stimulate the economy with ultra-low interest rates. Business, consumers, and government now almost all depend on credit… and most need ultra-low rates to make ends meet.

Consumers are in better shape, generally, than they were in 2008. But corporations and governments are in worse shape. Raise the cost of funding, and you will push many of them over the edge.

Banks, pension funds, and insurance companies are especially vulnerable. They’re now stocked up with low-yield government bonds. Should interest rates rise, those bonds will go down in price. In other words, raising rates will provoke the very calamity the Fed was trying to avoid: the bankruptcy of the financial sector.

 

The Triumph of Politics

But wait…how did Bernanke, Yellen, Kuroda, Draghi et al. think they would ever get away with it? How could they believe – even for a minute – that a debt problem could be solved by adding more debt? And yet, they always got away with it before.

After World War II, for example, the feds had a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than they have now. But after the war, the economy boomed, inflation rose… and soon the debt was no problem. Again, at the beginning of President’s Reagan’s first term, economists worried about large government deficits.

 

3-debt,more debt, GDP and FF rate

The “there’s no coming back from this” chart: total US credit market debt (black line), federal government debt (green line), GDP (red line) and the federal funds rate (light-blue line) – click to enlarge.

 

The job of colleague David Stockman – director of Reagan’s budget team – was to bring those deficits under control. He failed… a story well told in his book The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed.

Conservative economists thought the U.S. would sink into another slimy pool of deficits and debt. But once again, a spurt of growth (with low deficits) during the Clinton years reduced the debt to a more manageable level. So, why worry?

Because this time, it’s not working. Growth is slowing. Productivity has stalled. As former Goldman boy Gavyn Davies put it in the Financial Times: “The slowdown in labor productivity accounts for most of the massive disappointment in global output growth since just before the 2008 crash.”

Professor Robert Gordon at Northwestern University believes there is more to it than just a cyclical downturn. He maintains that the extraordinary growth of the Industrial Revolution had played itself out by the 1980s. And it can’t be repeated.

We have another hypothesis: Either way, the debt can never, voluntarily, be brought under control. And the Fed can never “normalize” rates
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 11, 2016, 06:17:22 PM



Obama Announces Unexpected Meeting With Yellen Following Tomorrow's "Expedited Procedures" Fed Meeting
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/10/2016 21:15 -0400

Federal Reserve Global Economy Janet Yellen Joe Biden Reuters White House


 
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One of the more significant, if largely underreported events from last Friday, was the Fed's surprising announcement that it would conduct a closed meeting tomorrow, April 11, at 11:30am "under expedited procedures" during which the Board of Governors will review and determine advance and discount rates charged by the Fed banks.



This is notable because the last time such a meeting took place was on November 21, less then a month before the Fed's historic first rate hike in years.

Moments ago things got even more interesting, when in yet another unexpected announcement, the White House said that both Obama and Joe Biden would meet with Janet Yellen on Monday to discuss the economy and Wall Street reform, the White House said late on Sunday. The meeting is expected to take place some time "in the afternoon."

"In the afternoon, the president will meet with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to discuss the state of the American and global economy, Wall Street reform, and the long-term economic outlook; the vice president will also attend," the statement said.


According to Reuters, the president and the Fed chair meet regularly to discuss economic issues. Still, one can't help but wonder what will be said in these two back to back meetings, both of which will be closed to the public.

In the meantime, we are confident numerous Fed speakers will explain how the Fed may or may not raise rates in the immediate future, unless it of course, does not, all depending on data which the Fed no longer cares about.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 12, 2016, 05:56:11 AM



White House Issues Following Statement After Meeting Between Obama And Yellen
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/11/2016 17:01 -0400

White House


 
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The closed-door meeting between Obama, Biden and Yellen has concluded, and moments ago the White House released the following statement:

"The President and Chair Yellen met this afternoon in the Oval Office as part of an ongoing dialogue on the state of the economy. They discussed both the near and long-term growth outlook, the state of the labor market, inequality, and potential risks to the economy, both in the United States and globally. They also discussed the significant progress that has been made through the continued implementation of Wall Street Reform to strengthen our financial system and protect consumers."
Of course, for the actual transcript of what was said, we will have to rely on some conscientious White House leaker putting it on BitTorrent, but here is our modest attempt at translating what was and what was not said: no market crashes allowed until November.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 13, 2016, 07:21:51 AM



SocGen: "Now We Know Why The Fed Desperately Wants To Avoid A Drop In Equity Markets"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/12/2016 18:15 -0400

Bond Central Banks Corporate America default Equity Markets headlines Investment Grade Monetary Policy Reality SocGen Volatility


 
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With the ECB now unabashedly unleashing a bond bubble in Europe of which it has promised to be a buyer of last resort with the stronly implied hint that European IG companies should issue bonds and buy back shares, and promptly leading to the biggest junk bond issue in history courtesy of Numericable, it will come as no surprise that the world once again has a debt problem.

For the best description of just how bad said problem is we go to SocGen's Andrew Lapthorne, one of last few sane analyzers of actual data, a person who first reveaked the stunning fact that every dollar in incremental debt in the 21st century has gone to fund stock buybacks, and who in a note today asks whether "central bank policies going to bankrupt corporate America?"

His answer is, unless something changes, a resounding yes.

Here are the key excerpts:

Sensationalist headlines such as the one above are there to grab the reader’s attention, but the question is nonetheless a serious one. Aggressive monetary policy in the form of QE and zero or negative interest rates is all about encouraging (forcing?) borrowers to take on more and more debt in an attempt to boost economic activity, effectively mortgaging future growth to compensate for the lack of demand today. These central bank policies are having some serious unintended consequences, particular on mid cap and smaller cap stocks.
 
Aggressive central bank monetary policies have created artificial demand for corporate debt which we think companies are exploiting by issuing debt they do not actually need. The proceeds of this debt raising are then largely reinvested back into the equity market via M&A or share buybacks in an attempt to boost share prices in the absence of actual demand. The effect on US non-financial balance sheets is now starting to look devastating. We’re not the only ones to be worried. The Office of Financial Research (OFR), a body whose function is to assess financial stability for the US Treasury, highlights corporate debt issuance as their primary threat to financial stability going forward.
 
In our assessment, credit risk in the U.S. nonfinancial business sector is elevated and rising, and by more than depicted in the Financial Stability Monitor. The evidence is broad. Credit growth to the sector has been rapid for years, pushing the ratio of nonfinancial business debt to GDP to a historically high level. Firm leverage is also at elevated levels. Creditor protections remain weak in debt contracts below investment grade. These factors are consistent with the late stage of the credit cycle, which typically precedes a rise in default rates.
 
The reality is US corporates appear to be spending way too much (over 35% more than their gross operating cash flow, the biggest deficit in over 20 years of data) and are using debt issuance to make up the difference. US corporates will have to borrow over 2.5% of their market capitalisation (over $400bn each year) to, somewhat ironically, buy back their own stock.
 

 
This cash flow deficit then needs to be financed, hence the continuing need to raise more and more debt. Current spending implies US non-financials will have to raise another $400bn of debt, a large proportion of which would then be reinvested back into the equity market via share repurchases. Some consider this to be shareholder return, while others (ourselves included) see it as simply remortgaging shareholder equity in an attempt to boost short-term share price performance. This in our view is short-term irrationality.
 
No matter where you look or how you measure it, leverage is elevated and continues to rise to unusually high levels given where we are in the cycle, with the most worrying rise in small cap stocks’ debt levels. Looking at interest cover is not particularly reassuring either, with the weighted interest coverage ratio approaching the recent low of 2009 when EBIT was depressed and not that far off the 1998/2003 levels when corporate bond yields were significantly higher.
 
 
 
The catalyst for a balance sheet crisis is rarely the affordability of interest rates, so a 25bp rise in Fed rates is neither here nor there. Credit market risk is about assessing the likelihood of getting your money back. As such asset prices (i.e. equity markets) and asset price risk (i.e. equity volatility) are far bigger concerns. So all you need for a balance sheet crisis is declining equity markets, a phenomenon the Fed appears desperate to avoid. Now we know why (see chart below).
 

Well that, and another reason: as of this moment one can measure the daily credibility of central banks by whether stocks closed higher or lower; too low and everyone starts talking about how CBs no longer have credibility and how they would rather Yellen et al would stop micromanaging everything... and then everyone quiets down when stocks surge back to all time highs. Alas, this means that the markets have not only stopped being a discounting mechanism (or rather they only discount what central banks will do in the immediate future), but have also stopped reflecting the underlying economy a long time ago, something will remains lost on all of the "smartest people in the room."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 18, 2016, 04:39:19 PM



2016年04月18日 06:17 AM
还能与美联储“对赌”多久?
英国《金融时报》旗下宏观研究机构Medley Global Advisors总裁 丹•博格莱
 

最近数月来石油成了市场动荡的重要因素,同时中国将决定所有人的命运。但是,如果说新兴市场投资者需要注意(并试着理解)一件事的话,那仍然是美联储(Fed)。

美国央行不仅为全球最大的经济体制定货币政策(这是其明文规定的任务),它还以此决定了美元走向和全球可用流动性总量,进而决定了进出新兴市场的资本流量。

棘手之处在于,尽管近年来美联储试图提高透明度的努力值得称赞,但其意图一如既往地难以解读。这部分是由于美联储在全球金融危机之后被迫诉诸于非常规工具,且至今仍然在利率接近于零的水平上进行操作,导致其货币政策决定的效果难以把握。

但是,这在一定程度上是美联储本身的过错。一再过于乐观地评估美国经济及其从危机中复苏的力度,损害了美联储的可信度,以至于投资者不再完全相信美联储本身对其政策路径的预测——如果你退后一步思考,这是令人震惊的发展。


例如,按照眼下的市场定价(借用隔夜指数掉期利率(OIS)),美联储在本月举行的议息会议上将利率上调25个基点的可能性为零,在6月会议上加息的可能性为17%,9月加息的可能性为35%。

事实上,按照市场预测,一直要到明年3月(距离现在将近1年),美联储再次加息的可能性才会高于50%,而且即便那时加息的可能性也只有56%。

相比之下,美联储在3月会议上所做的最新预测称,2016年将加息2次,明年还将进一步加息3至4次。这与市场预测存在相当大的落差,而政策制定者应该担心的是,这种分歧已经持续了数月。更令人发愁的是,迄今为止市场预测更准确。去年12月美联储预测今年将加息4次,一直到今年3月,面对去年第4季度美国经济增长乏力、今年第1季度市场强烈波动使得金融条件趋紧的现实,它才把加息预测减为2次。

与此同时,美联储最重要的两大同行欧洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BoJ),继续放松政策,对它们来说再次收紧政策是多年以后的事情——英国央行(BoE)和欧洲其他国家的央行也是一样。

因此,与美联储“对赌”的战略迄今是有回报的,因为美联储一再延迟出台货币政策的重大收紧行动,通过疲软的美元和充足的流动性,为美国股票、美国债券和新兴市场资产提供了广泛且同步的支撑。这一战略还能继续奏效吗?

或许不行。如果说这世上还有一家央行,强大到足以说服各个市场顺应它的思路,而不是被这些市场牵着走,那一定就是美联储。虽然在珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)的领导下,美联储的政策制定者们依然态度谨慎,可一旦数据开始变得强劲起来,他们的谨慎也将随之消失。具体来说,美联储认为美国劳动力市场已基本恢复,金融条件在今年初的可怕动荡后已再次缓解,而且国际风险(如中国经济崩溃或油价暴跌)似乎也降低了。

剩下的问题就是通胀。对于表明核心CPI也许最终出现上扬的近期迹象,美联储官员迄今保持谨慎。但如果他们得到佐证依据,他们将迅速采取行动上调利率。

但即使到了那时,美联储对加息依然会谨慎。事实上,联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee)中的鸽派愿意让通胀自由上行,直到其略高于预期目标,他们预计这将提振经济增长和就业。但在谨慎收紧政策与今年加息2次之间并无矛盾;英国《金融时报》旗下宏观研究机构Medley Global Advisors目前预计,加息时间将分别是今年6月和12月。

如果6月23日英国退欧公投前的波动干扰了6月加息动向,那么美联储今年首次加息时间可能会推迟至9月(之所以不是7月是因为美联储在该月不会举行记者会)。但在今年底之前应该还会有第二次加息(假定美国经济状态良好),特别是因为届时美国大选已经结束了。

丹•博格莱(Dan Bogler)是英国《金融时报》旗下宏观研究机构Medley Global Advisors总裁

译者/何黎
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 19, 2016, 06:03:32 AM



Greenspan Admits The Fed's Plan Was Always To Push Stocks Higher
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/18/2016 14:20 -0400

Alan Greenspan Equity Markets Federal Reserve Kyle Bass Kyle Bass Monetary Policy Price/Earnings Ratio Quantitative Easing


 
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Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted in an interview with Sara Eisen that quantitative easing did what it was supposed to do, which was to inflate stock prices and drive multiple expansion.

He was confused as to why things such as corporate earnings, capital spending, and productivity have declined given how much QE was pumped into the system. The answer to the riddle of course, is that QE was never intended to help fix anything fundamentally, it was as Kyle Bass said recently, simply a mechanism to transfer wealth and make the rich richer.

"Monetary policy has done everything it can, unless you want to put additional QEs on and QEs on, they're not helping that much.
 
What ultimately determines whether or not you're getting an effect from the QEs are what has happened to the price/earnings ratio, and that obviously has done what you'd expect it to do.
 
You bring long-term rates down, and the price/earnings ratios in the equity markets go up, which is exactly what they planned to do and it's happened that way."
All of this is precisely what we've been saying all along, which is that QE has always been about one thing, and that is to take wealth from many (savers), and transfer it to a select few (asset owners)
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 20, 2016, 06:00:03 AM


Boston Fed Says "Markets Are Wrong," Rates Are Going Higher, Sooner
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/18/2016 22:25 -0400

Alan Greenspan Bond Consumer Confidence Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve Bank Of Boston Monetary Policy None Reality Recession


 
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Gold and bond prices dropped and stocks popped as yet another open-mouth operation went underway this evening from none other than Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren. Ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, and just days after another Fed president said no April hike, Rosengren spewed firth that "I don't think financial markets have it right." Of course, what this preacher means is that while stock markets are perfectly efficient (and correct), bonds and rate futures areclearly inefficient and "investor outlooks for Fed rate hikes are too pessimistic," because "the US economy is fundamentally sound."

*ROSENGREN: GRADUAL FED RATE INCREASES `ABSOLUTELY APPROPRIATE'
*FED'S ROSENGREN SAYS U.S. ECONOMY `FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND'
*ROSENGREN: INVESTOR OUTLOOK FOR FED RATE HIKES TOO PESSIMISTIC
Seriously!!



 

Of course, after a day of oil/stock rebounds on dismal disappointment in Doha, this makes perfect sense...

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren issued a stark warning to markets Monday, telling traders and investors they are seriously underestimating how many rate rises the U.S. central bank is likely to deliver over the next few years.
 
"I don't think the financial markets have it right," Mr. Rosengren said in a speech given in New Britain, Conn., at Central Connecticut State University.
 
"While I believe that gradual federal-funds rate increases are absolutely appropriate, I do not see that the risks are so elevated, nor the outlook so pessimistic, as to justify the exceptionally shallow interest rate path currently reflected in financial futures markets," he said.
yeah you are probably right - what is wrong with this US economy?



 

Ignore this though he say - it's wrong too!!

*ROSENGREN: 1Q GROWTH DISAPPOINTING, JOBS DATA MORE OPTIMISTIC
As WSJ notes, however, Rosengren, currently an FOMC voter, has long skewed toward the dovish end of the Fed scale.

While he's been on board with the Fed raising rates he's definitely banged the drum for moving slowly. So his speech this evening is notable because he puts markets on warning for holding what he views as the wrong outlook on rates.
 
He says nothing about the April FOMC, but that said, if Mr. Rosengren thinks markets are underestimating what the Fed will do, investors and traders might want to listen.
There was some reaction in markets...



 

So - interest-rate markets are wrong; macro data is mostly wrong (apart from the jobs data); and The Fed is right?

As we showeed in our discussion of the Fed’s forecasts, these predictions have continued to fall short of reality.

“Besides being absolutely the worst economic forecasters on the planet, the Fed’s real problem is contained within the table and chart below. Despite the rhetoric of stronger employment and economic growth – plunging imports and exports, falling corporate profits, collapsing manufacturing and falling wages all suggest the economy is in no shape to withstand tighter monetary policy at this juncture.”
FOMC-Economic-Forecasts-031616

“Of course, if the Fed openly suggested a ‘recession’ could well be in the cards, the markets would sell off sharply, consumer confidence would drop and a recession would be pulled forward to the present. This is why “what the Fed says” is much less important than what they do.”
And here is Alan Greenspan meeting with Dixie Noonan et al on March 31, 2010:

This is a reason why the Board is getting an unfair rap on this stuff. We didn’t forecast better than anyone else; we regulated banks that got in trouble like anyone else. Could we have done better? Yes, if we could forecast better. But we can’t. This is why I’m very uncomfortable with the idea of a systemic regulator, because they can’t forecast better.
This comes from the person in charge of the most powerful central bank in the world; a world which now is reliant exclusively on central bankers for its day to day pretend existence
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 20, 2016, 06:02:05 PM



As Fed goes silent, so too go chances of April rate hike

By Greg Robb
Published: Apr 19, 2016 9:06 a.m. ET

     13 
Support among hawkish Fed officials for move next week has faded
AFP/Getty Images
The facade of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold interest rates next week.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve begins its media blackout Tuesday, as always happens one week before it’s interest rate policy meeting.

Based on everything that’s been said over the past six weeks, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady and try not to rock the boat to upset the relative calm in financial markets.

“The chance of a Fed rate hike appear to be nil,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 22, 2016, 06:02:33 AM



Rising commodity prices could spell trouble for Fed: Boockvar
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The five-year commodity bear market appears to be coming to a close, and that could spell trouble for the Federal Reserve, Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at the Lindsey Group, said Thursday.

The Dow Jones commodity index had fallen roughly 50 percent since 2011, but the asset class has recently shown signs of turning a corner. It has risen more than 13 percent this year.


A worker grabs a nozzle at a PTT gas station in Bangkok, Thailand, January 5, 2016.
Cramer: Commodity rally could head higher
"I think this bottom is for real. I think that it's not demand driven, it's supply driven," Boockvar told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

He said that puts the Federal Reserve in an "interesting situation" because rising commodity prices combined with services sector inflation running at about 3 percent will likely send headline inflation to the central bank's 2 percent target.

That could force the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than policymakers anticipated.

It would be one thing if the commodity bounce were demand driven, indicating stronger global growth, Boockvar said. But since the rise is being fueled by a reduction in supply, the Fed could be grappling with higher inflation and middling economic growth, he said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 24, 2016, 02:28:05 PM



MONEY

With US economy in soft spot, Fed likely to keep policy on hold
Published: April 24, 2016 12:39 PM GMT+8

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The front of the United States Federal Reserve Board building is shown in Washington. — Reuters pic
The front of the United States Federal Reserve Board building is shown in Washington. — Reuters pic
WASHINGTON, April 24 ― Persistent worries about the global economy and the possibility of Brexit ― Britain's pullout from the European Union ― will probably keep the Federal Reserve on hold this week as it reviews interest rates.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee will also be buying time to be sure the US economy picks up from a modest first-quarter slowdown and more unexpected weakness in inflation, analysts say.

Minutes from the FOMC's March meeting and speeches by Fed officials show the group is divided between those who think another increase in the benchmark federal funds rate after December's is appropriate now, and those who want to wait.

But analysts say the heavier hand of dovish Fed Chair Janet Yellen together with Brexit, the still-simmering Greek crisis and other worries about the international economy should keep the balance against an increase.

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, its third meeting of a year that began with expectations of a possible four rate increases to take the Fed funds rate to 1.25-1.50 per cent by year's end.

But after the deep turbulence in international financial markets at the beginning of the year, and then some weakness in US consumer spending and business investment clouded the growth picture, expectations were lowered to just one or two quarter-point increases this year.


 
“Following an unexpectedly dovish turn by Chair Yellen last month, it seems to be a done deal that the Fed will leave its interest rate unchanged,” economist Harm Bandholz of Unicredit said.

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics agreed.

“The Fed is very unlikely to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting,” he said. “Nevertheless, we expect the Fed to leave the door open to a rate hike at the next meeting in mid-June.”

Slower growth outlook

The meeting comes amid a debate inside and outside the Fed about whether the US economy is insulated enough to withstand more volatility in global financial markets and continued slow growth around the world.

The International Monetary Fund cut its outlooks for world and US growth last week, citing significant outstanding threats, including regional conflicts and Brexit.

Economists are also cutting their expectations for US first-quarter growth, with Unicredit penciling in a very slow 0.5 per cent annual pace.

Against that, the Fed has to weigh positive signs such as continued strong hiring that is boosting household incomes, and the dollar's recent fall, which will buoy exports.

The minutes to the Fed's last meeting show some advocating an earlier rate hike to ensure the Fed does not miss the boat when inflation picks up.

But other members of the committee, which Yellen leads, were very skittish.

Many in the group felt that “a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent or noted their concern that raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate.”

Then there is Brexit, which could create deep disruptions in trade and investment relationships beyond the European Union.

With Britain set to hold a referendum on the issue only on June 23 ― a week after the Fed's June meeting ― Stephen Oliner of the American Enterprise Institute said the risk it poses should keep the Fed on hold even then.

“I don't see how they would feel confident enough that they could signal June is likely, given that the outcome of the Brexit vote won't be known until after the June FOMC meeting,” he said. ― AFP

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/with-us-economy-in-soft-spot-fed-likely-to-keep-policy-on-hold#sthash.OA3XeFgM.dpuf
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 25, 2016, 05:55:38 PM



別管經濟了!美通膨預期創9個月高,才是FED惡夢的開始
回應(0) 人氣(913) 收藏(0) 2016/04/25 14:06
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-25 14:06:47 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
老外常說別胡亂許願(be careful of what you wish for),因為如果不小心許錯願卻成真,屆時恐後悔莫及。聯準會(FED)朝夕目盼通膨回到2%,但通膨若真的來了,那低利率政策還能再維持多久,未來若被迫加速升息,恐引發引發金融市場更大動盪。

據美國媒體報導,五年期美債與同期抗通膨債券殖利率差,也是交易員最常衡量通膨預期的指標,上周已擴大至1.57%,創去年7月以來新高,持續朝FED預設2%的通膨目標大步邁進。

年初全球經濟一度被通縮陰影籠罩,還有人形容通縮為央行的惡夢,但其實不然,在低通膨或通縮環境中,央行才有施展拳腳的空間,也才有藉口進行各種貨幣工作操作。反倒是當通膨進入上升時期,即使此時經濟面臨衰退,央行也只能袖手旁觀,徒嘆無用武之地,巴西就是血淋淋的例子。

FED去年一直拖到年底才開出升息第一槍,但一場股災又讓FED膽寒。FED目前採拖字訣,希望藉以以緩和金融市場情緒,然而去年美國通膨被油價與強勢美元拖低,FED尚有空間等待,但油價從2月已開始回溫,其它原物料價格隨之起漲,加上美國基本工資喊漲此起彼落,當前是否還容許FED繼續等待令人質疑。FED的目的如果是延長低利率的話,現在應該祈禱通膨別太早回升才對,至於美國其它經濟數據好壞,現在已不再重要了。

通膨是公債殺手,對於投資大眾而言,此時對美債應多觀察少出手,確定通膨趨勢後再進場不遲。在東京交易之美國十年期公債殖利率周一盤中維持在平盤附近、暫報1.88%。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 26, 2016, 06:11:04 PM


美國頁岩油商破產裁員不斷,叫葉倫如何安心升息?
回應(0) 人氣(579) 收藏(0) 2016/04/26 15:52
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-26 15:52:29 記者 賴宏昌 報導
時代雜誌網路版4月13日報導,聯準會主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)在接受專訪時表示,如果她現在得在金融泡沫疑慮跟美國中西部就業機會之間做出抉擇、她會選擇後者。美國總統歐巴馬(Barack Obama)、葉倫甫於4月11日在橢圓形辦公室進行罕見的一對一閉門會議。葉倫近日持續拉高「鴿」聲可能與歐巴馬會面有關。
事實上,葉倫在3月底於紐約經濟俱樂部發表演說時就說,油價若再度下滑、跌到特定的臨界點(對特定國家、能源公司而言),全球與美國經濟就某種程度而言都可能受到影響。簡單來說,低油價讓已經讓葉倫開始感到坐立難安。
日本經濟新聞4月26日報導,根據Haynes & Boone在4月15日公布的調查,2015年初迄今美國與加拿大石油、天然氣企業已有63家宣告破產、總負債金額高達225億美元,今年迄今就佔了21家。中型頁岩油鑽探公司Goodrich Petroleum因無力償還5億美元債務、於4月中旬申請破產保護。Energy XXI也因為無力償還利息而倒閉。受多家頁岩油廠商倒閉影響、美國原油產量現已降至2014年10月以來最低水準。

Oppenheimer分析師Fadel Gheit預估,即便每桶原油價格回升至50-60美元,半數頁岩油廠商仍無力繼續存活下去。美國能源情報署(EIA)統計顯示,截至4月15日為止當週美元原油日產量報895萬桶、連續第2週低於900萬桶大關,與2015年6月的高峰值(961萬桶)相比下滑了7%。
worldoil.com報導,根據德勤(Deloitte)2月發表的報告,全球175家(占比逼近35%)上市勘探和生產(E&P)企業今年將面臨高度的破產風險,這些公司的合計負債金額超過1,500億美元。德勤副董事長John England指出,今年E&P企業破產家數恐將超越大衰退時期水準,因為2015年提供緩衝的有利因素(發行企業債、申請銀行貸款、發行增資股、透過衍生性商品進行避險)正在快速消退中。
達拉斯聯準銀行4月25日公布,2016年4月德州製造業一般商業活動指數自3月的-13.6降至-13.9,連續第16個月呈現負值、創2007年11月至2009年11月金融海嘯時期以來最長萎縮紀錄。德州製造業就業指數自-10.3升至-3.7、連續第4個月呈現負值。工時指數自-5.6升至-1.0、連續第4個月呈現負值。
德州一名金屬製品製造業受訪廠商曾在今年初哀怨地表示,石油和天然氣產業的持續蕭條將衝擊客戶營運、導致需求大幅縮減。另一名機械製造業受訪廠商說,FED應該會察覺美國經濟已經陷入衰退並反手調降利率。
根據達拉斯聯準銀行3月底發布的新聞稿,受油價大跌66%的影響、2015年美國德州地區石油與天然氣相關就業人數大減19.4%。
知名人力資源機構Challenger, Gray & Christmas統計顯示,2016年第1季美國能源業宣布裁員人數達52,901人、較去年同期增加39.9%。
2015年美國德州當地企業宣布裁員人數高達107,711人、較第二名的加州多出41%;今年第1季德州依舊居冠、當地企業宣告裁員人數達60,350人。
investors.com報導,全美獨立企業聯盟(NFIB)4月12日公布,2016年3月小型企業信心指數自2月的92.9跌至92.6、創下兩年新低紀錄,低於42年平均值(98)。NFIB指出,小型企業信心指數過去15個月累計下跌7.7點、暗示美國經濟未來可能步入衰退。NFIB首席經濟學家William Dunkelberg指出,4月數據將決定美國是否會亮出經濟衰退警訊


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 27, 2016, 08:31:51 AM



Expect stocks to sell off if the Fed talks the dollar back into rally mode

By Joseph Adinolfi
Published: Apr 26, 2016 12:22 p.m. ET

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Investors are wondering how, or if, the Fed will acknowledge the recent improvement in global market conditions
AFP/Getty Images
If the Fed acknowledges global market improvement since its last meeting, it could reignite the dollar rally.
Circumstances in both foreign and domestic markets have shifted remarkably since the members of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting committee last met in March.

Now, investors are wondering: Will the Federal Reserve’s outlook change, too? Which, if any, market developments could central bankers choose to address as they wrap up a two-day meeting Wednesday?

And ultimately, what impact would this have for the U.S. dollar and, through it, on financial markets more broadly?

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Both market strategists and corporate executives have acknowledged the dollar’s role in soothing turbulent financial markets and boosting corporate earnings since the beginning of the year.

Recent dollar weakness, which followed a massive run-up for the buck in the second half of 2014 and opening months of 2015, has been said to have boosted oil prices CLM6, +1.14% The dollar traded effectively sideways for the remainder of 2015, before turning markedly lower in the first quarter of 2016. That weakness has persisted since. That dollar trend provided much-needed relief to energy shares and stoked a recovery in U.S. stock indexes SPX, +0.19% . Finally, after years of stagnation, inflation is stirring, and prices have started to rise at a rate approaching the central bank’s annual target of just below 2%.

Time
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
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US:DXY94969810092
The ICE U.S. Dollar index DXY, -0.02% a measure of the buck’s strength against a basket of six rivals, is down more than 4% so far this year; it was trading near 94.4350 Tuesday.

It’s likely that the Fed acknowledges these changes in its policy statement, strategists have reasoned.

And if the Fed adjusts its forward guidance to reflect subsiding volatility in global financial markets — one of the primary reasons the central bank lowered its expectations for the number of rate hikes this year — then surely investors could interpret this as a sign the central bank sees fewer obstacles to raising rates.

Only then can a dollar rally, on hold since late last year, begin again.

“We look to broad [dollar] strength into and through Wednesday’s [Fed meeting], as we note the potential for an acknowledgment of the improvement in many of the factors...that fostered the Fed’s cautious tone through the January and March meetings,” said Eric Theoret, a currency strategist at Scotiabank, said in a research note Tuesday.

In theory, rising interest rates would support the dollar by increasing the return on investments denominated in dollars, making it more attractive to investors. But a stronger buck would also undo a lot of the benefits to corporate earnings, likely weighing on stocks.

DuPont CFO Nicholas Fanandakis said during the company’s quarterly earnings call that the dollar’s decline against most currencies since the beginning of the year will offset the currency impact on earnings by 10 cents per share. The company now anticipates the negative currency impact for 2016 to drop to 20 cents per share from a forecast of 30 cents set in January.

Read: DuPont lifts 2016 outlook as earnings beat views

The company’s shares DD, +2.40%  were up 2.2% at $67.44 at one point Tuesday, making it the leading stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.07%

Herein lies the challenge for the Fed: The central bank must be extremely delicate about how it communicates with the market for fear of driving the dollar higher and undoing the gains in equities and oil seen since mid-February.

Also, it’s likely that the central bank would hold off on making any substantial changes to its policy statement because the improvement in U.S. economic conditions hasn’t been strong enough to warrant a June hike, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc.

While MFR expects the Fed to hike in June, it’s more likely that the central bank doesn’t want to over-promise when it releases its statement at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

“Our view is that they would want to keep their options wide open for June. Why would they want to paint themselves into a corner?” Shapiro said. “Things have calmed down, but that can change in a heartbeat.”
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 27, 2016, 08:42:44 AM



Fed will do a cautious dance to avoid volatility
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
1 Hour Ago
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The Fed is expected to do a cautious dance when it releases its statement Wednesday, as it leaves the door open for a rate hike in June but is not signaling one.

After two days of meetings, the Fed will release a 2 p.m. statement Wednesday. The statement is not expected to be much changed from its last one, but Fed watchers say the nuances will be important. There is no press conference where Fed chair Janet Yellen can provide further clarification, so markets will have only the statement to respond to.

The Fed is expected to be dovish in its statement, but the bond market clearly has been fearing it will be a bit more hawkish, and yields have been rising. Market expectations are for the next rate hike to come early next year, but the Fed has said it expects two rate hikes before then, so there is tension around any statement it would make.

Read MoreKensho Stats: Buy this if Fed hawks fly this week

"I don't think they're going to tip their hand on the policy section of it. I think the hawkishness might come in their description of the economy, because credit spreads have come back and are no longer a worry. The stock market is no longer down 10 percent on the year. Even the G-20 was less concerned about the economic outlook for the world," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank.

But the U.S. economic data has been spotty, with more than a few misses recently. Durable goods was weaker than expected Tuesday, and first quarter GDP, expected Thursday, is predicted to be just barely positive.

Fed officials have also been sending mixed messages about rate hikes. For instance, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, viewed as a dove, has said the markets have it wrong and are not pricing in enough rate hikes.


"The problem is you've got disagreement. The gap has widened," said Diane Swonk, CEO of DS Economics. "You've got dissents. When you have dissents, you have volatility." Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester is expected to join Kansas City Fed President Esther George in dissenting Wednesday, as they object to the Fed's lack of rate hikes.

"I don't think they can put the balance of risk back in, because they can't agree what the balance of risks are," said Swonk. "It just means continued uncertainty, continued uncertainty for the market."

Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, also said the Fed is unlikely to suggest that risks are balanced.

Read MoreHoward Marks on avoiding the market's biggest trap

"If they tell you it's nearly balancing, that'll be a signal that June is on the table," said Arone, adding he does not expect to see that.

Arone said the Fed will want to leave options open. "I don't think this Fed, and Yellen in particular, likes to paint themselves into a corner," said Arone. "The statement will acknowledge that growth in the economy is modest. They haven't seen the flow through to inflation and they'll remain data dependent going forward."

He said he will be watching to see if Yellen's view is dominant in the statement. "My view is what Yellen did with her Economic Club of New York speech (March 29), she was saying: 'I'm the chairperson. This is my view. We're going to go slow and gradual.' At the time, other Fed officials were talking about how April was still on the table," Arone said. "I think what markets are going to be looking to see is if that remains the message or if we're back in this kind of limbo."

Read MoreThis will be the unexpected driver of the market's next move: Technician

It will also be important to see if the Fed gives any nod to stability in international markets now that China has calmed some of the fears around its economy.

Besides the Fed, there is the trade deficit data at 8:30 a.m. EDT and pending home sales at 10 a.m. EDT. There is a 10:30 a.m. EDT government inventory data on oil and gasoline, and the Treasury auctions seven-year notes at 1 p.m. auction.

Earnings before the bell include Boeing, Comcast, GlaxoSmithKline, Mondelez, United Technologies, Anthem, Northrop Grumman, Dr Pepper Snapple, Nasdaq OMX, Nintendo, State Street, Tegna, Garmin, Six Flags and General Dynamics. After the bell, reports are expected from Facebook, PayPal, Marriott, SanDisk, Cheesecake Factory, La Quinta, Rent-A-Center, First Solar, Texas Instruments and Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 28, 2016, 07:04:05 AM



Fed holds on rates, warns economy has slowed
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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Amid a moribund economy and reduced levels of consumer spending, the Fed on Wednesday again opted not to raise interest rates.

"Economic activity appears to have slowed," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement released after its two-day meeting this week. "Growth in household spending has moderated, although households' real income has risen at a solid rate and consumer sentiment remains high."

The statement highlighted the many conflicting signs in the U.S. economy – consistent job growth and an improving housing market against slowdowns in business investment and exports. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed has estimated that economic growth slowed to just 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2016, a condition reflected in the Fed's lukewarm assessment of conditions.

When should the Fed raise rates again?

In June. The market is ready.
In late 2016.
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The statement struck a decidedly dovish tone, and only one FOMC member, Esther George of Kansas City, dissented. George has been a voice for the hawkish element at the Fed that wants to see the U.S. central bank get back on the road to normalization. George advocated for a quarter-point hike, which would take the current range to 0.5 percent to 0.75 percent.

Prominently missing from the statement was a "balance of risks" assessment, a mainstay of Fed communiques in which the Fed described how conditions were shaping up compared to its expectations. Fed watchers have taken the absence of the language from the past two statements as indications that FOMC officials remain concerned about growth both domestically and internationally.

"That tells me that June is effectively off the table," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. "They did not do enough, they have to put that statement back in for them to hike rates."


Janet Yellen
Here's what changed in the new Fed statement
NYSE Traders
Market bets for a June rate hike drop slightly after Fed

Inflation has been elusive for the Fed despite its easy policy path. The central bank kept its rate target near zero for eight years, yet failed to generate inflation above its 2 percent target. The statement reiterated the official stance that inflation will rise toward 2 percent "over the medium term" but is being held back by "the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices."

Financial markets reacted positively to the statement, with stocks notching slight gains from their position before the release.
"They're responding to market conditions," LaVorgna said of the Fed. "It's (making) it harder for them to take rates to where they should be. The rate should be higher but the Fed is having a hard time getting it where most economists say they already should be."

To be sure, Wall Street wasn't totally taking June off the table for a hike. FOMC official stress data dependence, and if inflation should start to build that would change the equation.

"I saw a couple of points on either side," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust. "The removal of the passive identifying global risks to the outlook might be viewed somewhat less dovishly. It sound like the committee was marginally more comfortable with international risks at this meeting."

The committee cut its assessment of household spending, indicating it "has moderated" after describing it as "increasing at a moderate rate" following the March meeting. The March statement also had noted that inflation "has picked up in recent months," but April's assessment was that it "continues to run below the committee's 2 percent long-run objective."
In addition, the statement added language indicating that the FOMC "continues to closely monitor … global economic and financial developments." That was a slight tweak from April, in which the committee said the international headwinds "continue to pose risks."

The Fed hiked its target rate a quarter point in December, the first such move in more than nine years. At the time, FOMC members, through the "dot plot" of future expectations, had indicated four hikes were likely this year. At their last meeting, though, that same plot suggested only two hikes this year.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 28, 2016, 08:36:23 AM



FOMC Preview: The Fed Is "Scared To Death" & "The Knock-On Effects Could Be Spectacular"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/27/2016 13:50 -0400

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Federal Reserve officials are virtually certain to hold interest rates steady when their meeting ends today but they could try to send a message to markets and outside observers about what likely comes next. With no press conference scheduled after this week’s meeting and no new economic forecasts to be released, all the attention will be focused on their words and the market is more aware than ever that the Fed doesn’t act in a vacuum. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes, The Fed is hopeful (that their always-wrong forecasts come true this time) but they're also scared to death on the consequences.

Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore notes that while Fed monetary policy may not change today, any shift in wording from last month’s statement may have massive consequences.

The recent divergence of U.S. rates and the U.S. dollar implies the future path for global assets is increasingly binary.
 
U.S. financial conditions are now easier than they were at the time of the December rate hike and challenging the two- year trend of tightening. Any dovish signal today would provide yet another significant reflationary impulse to global asset prices
 
Emerging market assets have paused recently and may be the biggest beneficiaries of such an outcome
 
On the flip-side, if the statement (there’s no press conference scheduled today, so this is the only insight investors will be getting) indicates a summer rate rise is likely, the Bloomberg Dollar Index will smash the three- month downtrend and lead to a significant re-tightening of financial conditions.
 

 
The knock-on effects could be spectacular. Speculative positioning is now net short the dollar for the first time since July 2014, according to the most recent CFTC report. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 9% in the last three weeks alone
 

The market is more aware than ever that the Fed doesn’t act in a vacuum.
There’s an argument that increased easing from the BOJ and ECB prevents tightening in the U.S. because excessive policy divergence will make the dollar too strong
Alternatively, as other central banks provide more stimulus to the global economy, the impact of any Fed tightening outside the U.S. might be mitigated to some extent
Perhaps there’s a third path? A Fed statement so dovish that it provides an inflationary boost strong enough to force the central bank into a summer rate hike
Deutsch Bank agrees that, with no press conference, all the focus will be on the tone of the associated statement.

The Fed will want to leave the door open for a June hike but it's hard to imagine that they'll dramatically change market pricing for it.
 
The futures contracts have nudged up to pricing a 22% probability of a June hike from as low as 14% mid-way through this month. How much this changes will likely hinge on what extent the Fed continues to acknowledge concerns about global growth and risks abroad. US data has been mixed of late. After getting back close to neutral at the start of April, economic surprise indices have trended steadily lower into negative territory as the month has passed.
 
On the positive side the weaker US Dollar should give the Fed some confidence. Since the March Fed meeting, the Dollar index has weakened just over 2%. That’s partly helped to support a near $8/bbl gain for WTI and 4% rally for the S&P 500 to YTD highs. We think much of the rebound in markets since early February has been due to the Fed's about turn and re-found dovishness.
 
This leaves them trapped in our opinion.
So, as Bloomberg's Richard Breslow writes, it’s best to just play it straight...

The Fed is hopeful. They’re also scared to death. The track record of official forecasts has been, shall we say, less than stellar, making “looking through data” a questionable strategy. And communication policy is still very much a work in progress.
 
An attempt at nuance could very well end up with the markets misinterpreting the intended message. And it won’t be helpful to get another set of speeches decrying that traders got it wrong
 
The numbers don’t argue for a hawkish statement. They also don’t worry over a rate volte face. They do suggest that the Fed should sit this statement out. Are all meetings live? Yes. It’s just another meaningless phrase
 
Employment growth has been strong. Not so much wages. Inflation remains below target. GDP and PCE deflator Friday are both expected to be sobering events, after a string of weak data
 
It’d be a hard sell to tell the country that the numbers are mostly rubbish but we need to get that jobs growth under control
 
A lot has been made of the recent “back-up” in Treasury yields. To where? Exactly the level they closed on the day of the very dovish March meeting.
 

 
It’s not a coincidence that a number of serious bond investors are initiating new longs here
 
I know they wish they could hike away. I get the frustration with the world being too much with us. But that’s reality
 
Japan’s in such a mess that analysts are seriously discussing what debt monetization would mean. China’s numbers have been unquestionably better but not without continued stimulus, which is proving to be necessary but not sufficient. After today’s negative CPI, Australia is firmly a rate cut candidate
It’s only weeks since Chair Yellen was incontrovertibly dovish. Equity bubbles can change that fast, but the global economy can’t
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on April 29, 2016, 06:05:54 AM



The Fed finds another mandate, and it's got Wall Street fuming
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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In its quest to find just the right time to raise interest rates, the Federal Reserve seems to have discovered a third mandate: creating a perfect world.

Recent post-meeting statements from the Federal Open Market Committee show that the U.S. central bank has gone well beyond its congressional dual mandate for price stability and full employment. Instead, the Fed now sees global growth as a principal condition for when it will enact another rate hike.

The April statement saw what appeared to be a modest tweak from March, going from an assertion that global issues "continue to pose risks" to the Fed continuing "to closely monitor ... global economic and financial developments."

For some on Wall Street it was a sign that a June rate hike is on the table as global concerns dissipate, while for others it either didn't mean a whole lot or wouldn't be enough to signal that the Fed will make its first hike since December. Along with the vote to raise rates a quarter point, Fed officials then indicated a path — since halved— toward four increases in 2016.

"Bottom line, I'm even more confused as to what factors are influencing them. If the sentence ... on international developments was the reason why they didn't hike in March, what is the excuse this time?" Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, wrote after the meeting. "All I can say again is that the Fed has and continues to wing it and for all the talk about being data dependent, they've completely neutered the concept because we no longer know what data they are depending on."

Janet Yellen
GDP stumble will keep Fed guessing
The verbal linguistics over the weighting of global versus domestic events in the Fed's decision-making sparked grumbles that echoed across Wall Street.

"The FOMC's apparent whimsical citing of global and financial developments as important policy influences makes monetary policy more uncertain. There is little doubt financial conditions have improved along with modest improvements in the global outlook since the March FOMC meeting," Citigroup economist William Lee told clients. "Instead of reassuring markets, the FOMC's arbitrary and ad-hoc use of global influences to justify policy timing raises the uncertainty of monetary policy."
There was great debate over what it all meant: Lee doubted the Fed would find impetus to hike rates before September, but others disagreed.

As far as trading went, Fed watchers modestly upped the odds for a more aggressive rate path. Still, chances for a June hike are just 19 percent, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, with the first month with a better than 50 percent probability not until September, at 52 percent.

Still, traders are putting the September funds rate at 0.49 percent, just 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, ahead of the current level. A full quarter-point rate hike isn't priced in until February 2017, with an expected funds rate of 0.63 percent.

Even with the Fed's reduced expectations for rate increases, there remains a communication gap between the central bank and the market.

Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian: Whatever Bank of Japan does, it gets wrong
"The Fed has put themselves in this unenviable position of having to answer every little wiggle in the market," Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a post-meeting interview. "The Fed has now become accountable and (asked to) answer things which are unanswerable."

For the road ahead, the Fed will get to pick its poison between a rocky global landscape that has become increasingly inhospitable to central bank actions (as in Thursday's Bank of Japan foul-up) and a weak domestic climate, where GDP growth in the first quarter was a measly 0.5 percent.

There are those on Wall Street who are bemoaning the notion that the Fed is letting global conditions figure into its decision-making, but the de facto third mandate remains.

There was even discussion from several economists that June's "Brexit" possibility (Britain leaving the European Union) will delay a hike at the next FOMC meeting, which happens days before the vote.

"Considering the Fed's heightened sensitivity to global financial and economic developments, the Fed could be forced to delay raising rates until there is some clarity on the referendum. Markets are already jittery, as U.K. credit default swaps have steadily risen this year," Ryan Sweet, director of real-time economics at Moody's Analytics, said in a note. "The Fed will have to boost market expectations if it is to move in June."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 01, 2016, 06:11:18 AM



The Cult Of Central Banking Is Dead In The Water
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2016 13:22 -0400

BLS Central Banks CPI Fannie Mae fixed Fractional Reserve Banking Freddie Mac Main Street Monetary Policy NADA None Output Gap Quantitative Easing


 
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Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

The Fed has been sitting on the funds rate like some monetary mother hen since December 2008. Once it punts again at the June meeting owing to Brexit worries it will have effectively pegged money market rates at the zero bound for 90 straight months.

There has never been a time in financial history when anything close to this happened, including the 1930s. Nor was interest-free money for eight years running ever even imagined in the entire history of monetary thought.

So where’s the fire? What monumental emergency justifies this resort to radical monetary intrusion and repression?

Alas, there is none. And that’s as in nichts, nada, nope, nothing!

There is a structural growth problem, of course. But it has absolutely nothing to do with monetary policy; and it can’t be fixed with cheap money and more debt, anyway.

By contrast, there is no inflation deficiency—–even by the Fed’s preferred measure. Indeed, the very idea of a central bank pumping furiously to generate more inflation comes straight from the archives of crank economics.

The following two graphs dramatize the cargo cult essence of today’s Keynesian central banking regime. Since the year 2000 when monetary repression began in earnest, the balance sheet of the Fed has risen by 800%, while the amount of labor hours used in the US economy has increased by 2%.

At a ratio of 400:1 you can’t even try to argue the counterfactual. That is, there is no amount of money printing that could have ameliorated the “no growth” economy symbolized by flat-lining labor hours.



 



Owing to the recency bias that dominates mainstream news and commentary, the massive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet depicted above goes unnoted and unremarked, as if it were always part of the financial landscape. In fact, however, it is something radically new under the sun; it’s the footprint of a monetary fraud breathtaking in its magnitude.

In essence, during the last 15 years the Fed has gifted the US economy with a $4 trillion free lunch. Uncle Sam bought $4 trillion worth of weapons, highways, government salaries and contractual services but did not pay for them by extracting an equal amount of financing from taxes or tapping the private savings pool, and thereby “crowding out” other investments.

Instead, Uncle Sam “bridge financed” these expenditures on real goods and services by issuing US treasury bonds on a interim basis to clear his checking account. But these expenses were then permanently funded by fiat credits conjured from thin air by the Fed when it did the “takeout” financing. Central bank purchase of government bonds in this manner is otherwise and cosmetically known as “quantitative easing” (QE), but it’s fraud all the same.

In essence, Uncle Sam has gotten $4 trillion of “something for nothing” during the last 16 years, while the Washington politicians and policy apparatchiks were happy to pretend that the “independent” Fed was doing god’s work of catalyzing, coaxing and stimulating more jobs and growth out of the US economy.

No it wasn’t!

What it was actually doing was not stimulating the main street economy, but falsifying and inflating the price of financial assets. That happened directly in the Treasury and GSE (i.e. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) markets where the Fed made its massive debt purchases, but that Big Fat Bid obviously cascaded through the pricing mechanism of the entire financial system via the linkage of credit spreads, cap rates and carry trades, including the PE on equities.

By contrast, the mainstream Keynesian delusion that the Fed has been stimulating GDP growth rather than speculator windfalls is rooted in the hoary concept of “aggregate demand” deficiency. That is, the proposition that the macroeconomy has a natural growth rate based on potential output at full employment, and that when actual growth falls short of that benchmark, it is the job of the state—–and in recent times, especially its central banking branch——to stimulate sufficient aggregate demand to close the gap.

This is claimed to be the essence of the welfare enhancing function of the state. To wit, pushing a continuously lapsing and faltering private capitalism toward its inherent full employment potential, thereby generating jobs, income and wealth that would otherwise not happen.

Alas, that’s complete self-serving clap-trap. At the end of the day, the full employment myth has conferred opportunities for employment and power on economists who would otherwise not have much more social function than astrologists; and it has provided an all-purpose blanket of rationalization for politicians bent on using the tools of state intervention and subvention to do good, do favors and do re-election.

The truth is, there can never by an honest shortage of “aggregate demand” because the latter is nothing more than spending for consumer and capital goods that is financed from the flow of income and production. As “Say’s Law” famously and correctly insists, “supply creates its own demand”.

And even more to the point, it is “supply” that is the hard part of the economic equation. It stems from work, exertion, sweat, discipline, enterprise, innovation, invention, sacrifice and savings.

Spending from what has already been produced is the easier part. And given human nature,  there is virtually no prospect of a shortage of aggregate demand——and most certainly not one which is chronic and continuous, as is implicit in the 24/7 stimulus policies of modern central banking.

Indeed, the idea that the state can create “aggregate demand” ex nihilo stems from a one-time parlor trick that was operative in the second half of the 20th century. Central banks discovered that they could stimulate credit expansion by supplying plentiful reserves to the fractional reserve banking system, thereby causing credit growth that was not funded from current savings.

That did permit a temporary breach of Say’s Law because spending derived from freshly minted banking system credit was additive to spending for consumer and capital goods financed out of current income and production. But there was a catch. Namely, continuous credit expansion resulted in the steady leveraging-up of household and business balance sheets.

Eventually, balance sheets became saturated and a condition of Peak Debt was achieved. In the case of the household sector, leverage ratios against wage and salary income rose from a stable historic level of about 75% prior to 1980 to a peak of 220% in 2007.  Then the parlor trick was over and done because in the aggregate there was no credit-worthy headroom left on balance sheets.

In fact, as shown in the chart below, the household sector has been slowly deleveraging its wage and salary income since the Great Financial Crisis. What that means is that with respect to the largest slice of the income pie by far—–the wage and salary earnings of households——Say’s Law has been re-instated. Household consumption is now constrained to the growth of production and income.

There is no more central bank “stimulus” through the household credit channel of monetary transmission.

Household Leverage Ratio - Click to enlarge
Household Leverage Ratio – Click to enlarge

Likewise, total US business borrowings have increased from $11 trillion to $13 trillion since the fall of 2007, but it has not lead to additional investment spending. Instead, the Fed fueled inflation of financial assets has induced businesses to cycle virtually 100% of their incremental borrowings into financial engineering. That is, stock repurchases and M&A deals.

But financial engineering does not add to GDP or increase primary spending; it results in the re-pricing of existing financial assets. That is, it gooses stock prices higher, makes executive stock options more valuable and confers endless windfalls on the fast money speculators who work the financial casinos.

Indeed, as we demonstrated in a post earlier this week—–precisely 100% of the entire increase in corporate borrowing since the turn of the century has been pumped back into the casino in the form of stock repurchases. Accordingly, the business investment channel of monetary transmission is over and done, as well.

The world is drowning in excess production capacity owing to the massive worldwide credit inflation and repression of capital costs during the last two decades. That was the effect of total global credit growth from $40 trillion in the mid-1990s to upwards of $225 trillion today—-an $185 trillion expansion that exceeded the growth of global GDP by nearly 4X during the same period.

Under this condition the diversion of corporate borrowing to financial engineering and stock buybacks is a no-brainer. Prospective returns on real productive assets are jeopardized by the immense overhang of excess capacity and the unfolding contraction of profit margins and CapEx, whereas stock buybacks and M&A deals bring immediate excitement and financial rewards to the C-suite.

So we go back to the beginning. The Fed and central banks in general are pushing on a fiat credit string because Peak Debt has arrived. All of today’s massive central bank intrusion is ending up in the secondary markets where it is causing the falsification of financial asset prices and massive, unearned and ultimately destructive windfall gains to speculators.

Here’s the essence of the Keynesian full employment/potential GDP myth. The learned economic doctors have simply pulled a fancy version of the old story about the professor of economics who fell into a 30-foot hole with a colleague. At length, the latter inquired about the professor’s plan to get out. “Assume we have a ladder”, said he.

There is absolutely nothing more to potential GDP and the so-called output gap than an assumed ladder. In the context of an $80 trillion global GDP enabled by today’s massive trade, capital and financial flows and current information technology, “potential output” is impossible to measure and is constantly changing.

There is no way to know whether an auto plant is at 95% utilization or 65%; it all depends on ever-changing costs of labor, the number of scheduled shifts, the complexity of the vehicles being assembled at any moment in time and the line speed, which. in turn, is a function of equipment, automation and technology variations over time.

Likewise, when on the margin labor is deployed by the gig in the DM economies and when the rice paddies have not yet been fully drained in the EM economies, there is no reasonable, accurate or meaningful way to measure labor utilization, either.

So there is no grand Keynesian economic bathtub whose full employment dimensions can be measured; and there is no way for the Fed or other central banks to fill it right to the brim with extra demand stimulus, anyway. Peak Debt has blocked the monetary policy transmission channels.

In fact, tepid growth of labor hours, productivity and output is a supply side problem. In that respect, replacing the current burdensome 16% payroll tax on America’s high cost labor with a consumption tax on the nation’s heavily imported goods would do more for supply side growth than central bankers could ever accomplish in a month of Sundays.

Likewise, there is no want of inflation, and the 2% target is simply a central banker’s con job. By selecting the most flawed and under-stated measure possible—-the PCE deflator less food and energy—–our monetary central planners rationalize their massive usurpation of power.

But there isn’t an iota of proof that 2.0% goods and service inflation is any more conduce to real growth of output and wealth than is 1.4% or even (0.2%). In any event, there is plenty of evidence that we are and always have been at 2.0% CPI inflation or better.

When an array of the inherently flawed inflation indices are considered as shown below, there is no meaningful shortfall from 2.0% since 2010 or during the entire period when the Fed has claimed to be struggling against lowflation. And that’s especially so when the BLS’ preposterous owners’ equivalent rent (OER) is replaced with empirical gauges of housing rent inflation.

CPI, PCE and Reality  - Click to enlarge

So what is to be done, as Lenin once queried?

In a word it is this. Fire the Fed. Attend to supply side policy. Let market capitalism do the rest.

The cult of central banking is dead in the water.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 02, 2016, 08:44:08 AM



Why the Fed will never get what it wants: Strategist
Brian Price   | @PriceCNBC
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The Federal Reserve surprised few last week when it keep interest rates unchanged, noting that it "continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments." However, one market watcher has a blunt message for Fed chair Janet Yellen: You're placing your hope in a fairy tale.

On a recent CNBC's "Futures Now," Lindsey Group chief market analyst Peter Boockvar made the case that the Fed will never get the "perfect" conditions they seek before increasing short-term rates once again.

The Fed's mandate "isn't to have a perfect world. That only exists in fairy tales, dreams and in your econometric models," Boockvar said in a recent note to clients. He believes that the Fed's monetary has been far too accommodative under Yellen as well as under Ben Bernanke.

Boockvar argued that the Fed has been taking cues from shaky international banks, and that doing so will always offer a reason to keep interest rates low.

'Excuse after excuse'


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A screen displays news on the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Oct. 15, 2014.
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In Wednesday's statement, the strategist noted new suggestions that the Fed is shifting its focus to concerns over international development. In its March statement, the Fed said that "global economic and financial developments continue to post risks," a line that does not appear in the more recent language.
"It's been excuse, after excuse, after excuse," Boockvar said. "This is why, eight years into an expansion, they've only raised interest rates once. They're afraid of their own shadow. They're in a terrible hole that they're not going to be able to get out of."
Whether looking at the Fed, the Bank of Japan, or the European Central Bank, Boockvar sees a landscape littered with policy errors.

"They all believe that, by making money cheaper, you can somehow generate faster growth," Boockvar said.
Based on this, Boockvar said that central bankers are losing their credibility and their ability to generate higher asset prices, putting the stock market in a precarious position.

"In a world that's already choking on too much debt, the cost of money really isn't an important variable and it is not a binding constraint on anybody's decision making."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 02, 2016, 02:13:21 PM



Dudley: Fed may need more powers to support securities firms during crises
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New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley
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New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley
The U.S. Federal Reserve may need more powers to provide emergency funding to securities firms in times of extreme stress in order to deal with a liquidity crunch, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said on Sunday.

"Providing these firms with access to the discount window might be worth exploring," Dudley said in prepared remarks at a financial markets conference in Amelia Island, Florida organized by the Atlanta Fed.

The discount window is a credit facility through which banks borrow directly from the U.S. central bank in order to cope with liquidity shortages.

The Fed currently has limited ability to provide funding to securities firms in such situations, with the discount window only available to depository institutions.

Janet Yellen
Fed 'afraid of its own shadow' on rate policy: Strategist
But the transformation of securities firms since the financial crisis, Dudley said, with the major ones now part of bank holding companies and subject to capital and liquidity stress tests, meant the environment has now changed.

"To me, this is a more reasonable proposition now than it was prior to the crisis when the major dealers weren't subject to those safeguards," he said.

Dudley did not mention monetary policy or the U.S. economic outlook in his remarks.


Other "significant gaps" remain in the lender-of-last-resort function, Dudley added.

On this, he cited work being done on a global level by the Bank of International Settlements, known as the central banks' central bank, which is studying deficiencies with respect to systemically important firms that operate across countries.

Dudley called for greater attention in order to determine which country would be the lender-of-last-resort for such companies during another crisis.

"Expectations about who will be the lender-of-last-resort need to be well understood in both the home and host countries," he said.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 04, 2016, 08:44:48 AM



FED'S WILLIAMS SAYS WANTS JUNE RATE HIKE IF GROWTH MEETS FORECAST
admin | May 4, 2016
SAN FRANCISCO (May 4): San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said Tuesday that all he needs to see is economic growth that is on track with his forecast, continued job gains and slightly stronger inflation for him to support an interest-rate hike in June.
“As long as the inflation data are consistent with the forecast I have of moving toward 2%, that would be enough” to support a June rate hike, Mr Williams said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.
Mr Williams said he expects economic growth of about 2% this year.
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Source: The Edge
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 06, 2016, 07:09:01 AM



Fed's Bullard undecided on the right path for interest rates
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James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Chris Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images
James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Global headwinds that have partly prevented the U.S. central bank from raising rates again may have dissipated, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Thursday.
"Those factors appear to be waning during the first half of 2016," Bullard said in prepared remarks at an event in Santa Barbara, California.

As the Federal Reserve mulls its next interest rate hike, Bullard, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said he is undecided on the path forward for U.S. interest rates.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Stocks close narrowly mixed; Street awaits jobs Friday
Federal Reserve policymakers in March forecast two rate increases this year but have been cautious amid slowing global growth and mixed U.S. economic data. Traders expect the next hike to be delayed until at least December of this year, according to Fed Fund futures on CME FedWatch.
Bullard had traditionally been considered a hawkish member of the Federal Reserve, arguing for rate hikes for much of 2015. But since then, Bullard has wavered on his views on the economy.

In February, he said given falling inflation, normalization would be unwise, but also said he thought odds of a recession were low. Then, in March, Bullard reversed course, saying the next rate hike might not be far off as the decision to pause hikes weighed on global growth. Then this week, now undecided, Bullard told The New York Times that the next U.S. recession is likely to happen before the Fed can normalize.


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People from Eastern Maine Health Services distribute employment information at a job fair, April 11, 2016 in Brunswick, Maine.
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In Thursday's address, Bullard added that financial stress has fallen according to recent readings and that the effects of a stronger dollar also appeared to have waned. Weak U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product growth appears at odds with months of strong job gains.
Bullard said the U.S. labor market is "at or possibly well beyond reasonable conceptions of full employment" and noted a recent upward trend in inflation.

"Still, combining actual data from the second half of 2015, the first quarter of 2016, and tracking estimates for the current quarter, the suggestion is that the U.S. is growing below a trend pace of 2 percent," he said.

Bullard said it was difficult to conclude whether predictions by the Fed or by the markets for the central bank's longer-run path of rate rises was more accurate.

The next major indicator comes on Friday when the Labor Department issues its monthly employment report for April.
The Fed hiked rates for the first time in a decade from near zero in December and next meets on June 14-15.

— Reporting by CNBC's Steve Liesman and Elizabeth Schulze. Contributions by Anita Balakrishnan.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 09, 2016, 05:25:17 PM



China data may sway Fed's rate decision
By Reuters / Reuters   | May 9, 2016 : 4:28 PM MYT   
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LONDON (May 9): The Federal Reserve's debate over whether to raise US interest rates in June may be decided in the coming week, as investors look for any cracks in China and evidence of a solid start to the second quarter in the United States.

A run of Chinese data is expected to show activity moderated in April after a strong showing in March. It started on Sunday with a greater-than-expected fall in China's April exports and imports.

For much of the past year, China has been at the centre of financial market turmoil, sometimes offering reassurance but mostly fuelling concern its economy — and global growth — are losing momentum.

Economic activity increased in the first quarter because of record bank lending. But worries about a commodity bubble and fast-rising home prices, as well as spreading debt defaults and bad loans, led regulators to tap the brakes on expectations of further aggressive stimulus.

Any evidence of a further slowdown in China beyond the already poor trade numbers could dissuade the US Fed from tightening policy as expected in June.

Fed policymakers acknowledged last month there were risks to the US economy and suggested two more rate increases were in store this year. That was only half what they thought when they tightened policy for the first time in a decade late last year.

Casting further doubt on the case for raising rates, the US economy added the fewest number of jobs in seven months in April and Americans dropped out of the labour force in droves.

Retail sales figures due on May 13 are expected to show sales picked up in April after falling 0.4% in March.

"Consumer spending started the year on a sluggish note, but we look for it to strengthen in Q2, both in overall terms and in the goods component specifically," said James Sweeney at Credit Suisse. "The monthly April report on retail sales should provide preliminary support for our Q2 forecast."

A May reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey on Friday, which the Fed is sensitive to, will probably also show a pick up.

Six state Fed chiefs are due to speak in the week, including the voting heads from Boston, Cleveland and Kansas City.

No change is expected from the Bank of England on Thursday. Bank policymakers are likely to be preoccupied by the June 23 referendum on whether Britain should remain a member of the European Union.

Most economists say a vote to leave damage the economy and weaken sterling. Finance Minister George Osborne will present his views on EU membership to lawmakers on Wednesday.

"The interest will lie with the accompanying Quarterly Inflation Report and meeting minutes for the committee's judgement on the impact of sterling's fall since February plus any comments about the impact of the referendum," Investec told clients.

Britain's central bank will probably lower its growth projections but hold inflation forecasts steady in the quarterly report, according to a majority of economists polled late last month.

The central banks of Korea, Thailand and the Philippines also meet during the week. No change is expected from them, either.

On Friday, after a light data week, Eurostat will update its preliminary euro zone GDP data. The region's economy grew at its fastest pace in five years in the first quarter, 0.6%, driven by unlikely stars such as France and Spain.

It has now grown larger that its peak before the financial crisis — although it took eight years to recover — and last quarter's growth rate exceeded growth in both the US and Britain
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 10, 2016, 07:21:12 AM



财经  2016年05月09日
就业数据虽差 不排除联储局加息

就业数据虽差 不排除联储局加息
伊尔艾朗表示,联储 局今年或加息2次。

(纽约9日讯)全球3位最具影响力的债券投资者,以及纽约联储行长都在暗示,儘管4月美国非农就业增幅低於经济学家预期,但联储局仍在加息的道路上。

曾是全球最大债券基金经理的格罗斯表示,决策者可能在6月会议上加息。

安联首席经济顾问伊尔艾朗(Mohamed El-Erian)称,联储局今年或加息2次。

太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)的基尔瑟(Mark Kiesel)与纽约联储行长达德利(William Dudley)的讲话亦与上述观点遥相呼应。

这些投资者与政策制定者们称,就业数据公佈后,不要就排除掉联储局加息的可能性。美国劳工部公佈,4月份美国非农就业人口增加16万个,逊于《彭博调查》经济学家得到的增加20万的预估中值。

不过,就业报告里的收入同比成长2.5%且超预期,联储局主席耶伦也在对这一情况展开评估。

目前,管理骏利全球无限制债券基金的格罗斯,在5月6日接受《彭博》电视台採访时称,「耶伦不会加息了吗,我觉得不一定。耶伦对薪资水平关注甚于就业数据,收入成长了2.5%。」

伊尔艾朗接受採访时表示,「我確信,他们至少会加1次,今年加2次也不无可能。」

他指出,金融市场相对平静以及美元贬值,会使联储局更容易採取行动。

Pimco的基尔瑟称,美国劳动力市场正在逐步好转,年底前或许会有1到2次加息
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 12, 2016, 07:22:02 AM



The Fed never anticipated low rate impact on financial sector: Fisher
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
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Persistently low interest rates are doing "a lot of damage," particularly to the financial industries that underpin the U.S. economy, former Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said Wednesday.

The companies Fisher said he's most worried about are insurers.

"Insurance companies, particularly life companies, are like noble oxen. They pull the cart forward steadily forever and ever and ever. They're living in a 1 percent world in this country, but they're pulling a 3-to-6 percent liability cart. It doesn't square," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

Low interest rates are a major risk for insurers because the income they derive from investments — mostly in safe assets like Treasurys — may be insufficient to fund payouts to customers in low-rate environments.


Neel Kashkari
Markets are too focused on Fed: Kashkari
Fisher said Fed policymakers did not anticipate the scope of easy money's impact on the financial sector.

"Bank's interest margins are being hammered. Money-market funds are trying to squeeze out a return. This is the kind of stuff, to be honest, sitting at the table, we did not foresee at the FOMC," he said, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee.

Germany is in even worse shape because the vast majority of Germans save through life insurance and their pension funds, he added.

Fisher reiterated his opinion that the Fed should raise rates by a quarter-percent at its June or July meeting, and then at least once again in the second half of the year. The FOMC raised rates a quarter-percent in December from nearly zero percent.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 18, 2016, 08:15:38 AM



Cramer: Oil could be pushing the Fed to raise rates—a bear collision disaster
Abigail Stevenson   | @A_StevensonCNBC
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Stocks are controlled by two masters: oil and the Federal Reserve, Jim Cramer says. The key is to keep them separate because if the two masters bump into one another, the results could be disastrous.

They collided on Tuesday following the report that the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4 percent last month, which was higher than the 0.3 percent expected. The fear of higher inflation introduced the theory that rising oil prices could mean that the Fed will institute multiple rate hikes this year.

"If that is the case, there is more downside ahead even as I think you could make a very convincing argument that the inflation we have right now can't be curbed by higher rates," the "Mad Money" host said.

At this point, Cramer is praying that Fed chief Janet Yellen is flexible enough to see that the Fed can't stop inflation.


Bears in a fight, colliding
Richard McManus | Getty Images
"Suddenly the increased price at the pump has moved the needle to the point where the CPI simply can't be ignored by the Fed."
-Jim Cramer
The most worrisome factor to Cramer was the increase in the cost of gasoline. For a while it seemed that oil could rally and propel the market higher, it seemed like a win-win situation because it didn't show up in inflation numbers.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Cramer Remix: The stock with the world's best balance sheet
Cramer's Dow Jones deep dive: The best stocks to own
Cramer: When Apple will stop being the worst loved stock in the universe

"Suddenly the increased price at the pump has moved the needle to the point where the CPI simply can't be ignored by the Fed," Cramer said.

Oil has now become the tipping point in the discussion of whether the Fed will raise rates next month in order to curb inflation.

Yet, Cramer found the argument for inflation clueless on many levels. Things like housing and health care costs that are impacting inflation cannot be controlled by the Fed. Additionally, higher rates would be disastrous for oil producers who are trying to meet the demand of bankers. Higher rates could mean marginal producers could sink and energy inflation could accelerate.

"In other words, higher rates won't stop this kind of inflation. If anything, a rate hike right now could make inflation worse," Cramer said.

While Cramer acknowledged that one slightly overheated inflation number can't change the entire outlook for the market, it does reintroduce the notion that two rate hikes this year are possible. Many bulls were convinced there would be none or only one.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 18, 2016, 04:31:41 PM



通膨來襲還不知醒,哈佛教授痛斥FED還在裝睡
回應(0) 人氣(440) 收藏(0) 2016/05/18 14:31
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-05-18 14:31:42 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
美國通膨升溫痕跡鑿鑿,但聯準會(FED)至今卻還充耳不聞,從去年12月升息後,找各種藉口一直按兵不動至今,讓哈佛大學重量級經濟學教授費德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)忍不住痛斥FED施政沒抓住重點,並警告升息拖太久恐更危險。

維持物價穩定是央行最主要職責,1970 至1980 年期間,美國就曾因FED的輕忽造成史上首次停滯性通膨,當時通膨一發不可收拾,物價指數狂飆升至兩位數,而GDP則是連續五季衰退。現在的FED主席葉倫為了維持低利率,又再一次拿美國經濟穩定與通膨對賭。

FED肩負完全就業與維持物價穩定兩大政策使命,美國目前失業率5%,基本上已達到完全就業水平。儘管通膨還沒達到標準(2%),但也不該一直維持在超低水平,為另一場金融危機埋下種子,得不償失。

費德斯坦曾擔任過前總統雷根的經濟顧問委員會主席,他在華爾街日報撰文指出,實體經濟通膨難以準確衡量,FED的利率政策不應因通膨絕對數據未達陣而躊躇不前,反倒如果通膨有上揚趨勢,FED就該提高警覺。

費德斯坦還表示,標普500指數本益比超過歷史水平50%,暗示有泡沫之虞,未來利率若回到正常水平,投資人乃至美國經濟難免承受衝擊。資產泡沫即是長期低利率的後遺症之一。

另一方面,FED如果為了護盤討好華爾街,當然也可以學日本央行(BOJ)一直維持低利率,或甚至推出新一輪的QE,但問題就在於通膨不允許FED如此恣意妄為。在面對通膨持續上升的狀況下,FED最終仍得被迫選擇升息,而這還不保證美國就能躲過再一次停滯性通膨的來襲。


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MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 19, 2016, 07:23:31 AM


2016年05月19日 06:18 AM
美联储官员不排除6月加息
英国《金融时报》 萨姆•弗莱明 华盛顿报道
 

美联储(Fed)的政策制定者们开启了在6月下次议息会议上提高短期利率的可能性,即便他们中的多人告诫称,在下一次加息之前还有多个经济障碍。他们正在掂量自己何时能够具有支持加息的信心。

这家美国央行4月议息会议的纪要显示,大多数政策制定者认为,随着通胀水平朝着2%的目标迈进,如果经济数据和就业市场状况继续走强的话,6月加息将是“合适的”。

但几位参与者也表示,他们担心,到6月14至15日召开议息会议时,经济信号可能还不够明确。

英国将围绕是否脱离欧盟(EU)举行公投,这是可能不利于美联储加息的海外风险之一。当联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)下月开会时,英国脱欧公投的结果可能正在造成市场动荡。


由于美联储4月议息会议纪要表明美联储官员保留了下月就提高短期利息的选择,美国股市回吐了涨幅,美元开始走强。

继去年12月加息25个基点以来,美联储的政策制定者们一直在权衡第二次加息的利弊。由于美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)强调她希望在政策制定方面采取谨慎做法,许多投资者一直不太相信美联储在6月就会再次加息。

译者/邢嵬
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 19, 2016, 08:54:39 AM



Why London could decide the next US rate hike
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
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The Fed sent a loud and clear signal that it would like to raise rates in June, but the decision may end up in the hands of the British.

The Fed's release of its April meeting minutes showed the Fed's discussion reflected more of the recent comments from Fed regional presidents, who have also been warning markets were not reflecting its intention to hike interest rates. However, the minutes started a new divide on Wall Street: Fed watchers who think the Fed will move in June and those who think the Brexit vote eight days after the Fed's meeting could hold them back. Brexit is the term for the U.K. vote on whether to remain in the European Union.

The markets had been bracing for a more hawkish message from the Fed, but its emphasis on June was an even hawkier surprise. "They were worried the market was underestimating a rate hike this year," said Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economist. The Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 27 percent chance of a June hike, up from 4 percent a week ago.


Dove vs Hawk
Okea (l) | Vicky Hart (r) | Getty Images
"They are sending the clueless market a clue, make no mistake about it. A rate hike in June. Bet on it," wrote Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. But others, including El-Erian, believe the Fed is really pushing the market to a different view — a rate hike is coming soon, but it's not exactly certain when.

"If you work backwards, we will definitely have a rate hike this year, maybe two. How early? July. Could it be June? Yes, but the polls for Brexit would have to give them a lot of confidence that British citizens will vote to remain," said El-Erian on CNBC. "It's hard to say between June and July, because they've got this massive Brexit vote on the 23rd."

BlackRock chief investment officer, global fixed income Rick Rieder told CNBC that Brexit could hold the Fed back. "In front of Brexit, I think it's a low probability," said Rieder. Sterling has been rising with new poll data showing that the anti-exit view is leading, but there have been other polls that show the opposite. The concern is that markets could become volatile going into and after the vote.

Prime Minister David Cameron and Mayor of London Boris Johnson
UK's Johnson likens march of European Union to Hitler, Napoleon
"Longer term, I don't think [Brexit] is an alarming issue for two reasons. One is it will be replaced with something else. Britain will have an association agreement with the EU," said El-Erian. "Second is Britain was never interested in the EU as an ever-closer union. It was interested as a free trade zone, so there was a different vision. In short, there will be uncertainty about what it will be replaced by and how quickly, so there will be short-term disruptions, but in the long term, I'm not an alarmist at all."
While Brexit has long been mentioned as a factor that could hold the Fed back in June, it is now rising higher up the list since some of the recent economic data has shown improvement. The Fed specifically mentioned June in its minutes, a strong message to the markets that the June meeting does have potential.

So, now the focus shifts to Fed speakers, who are still leaning on the economic data as the determining factor, but their words could help further shape the market view on timing. The Fed has forecast at least two rate hikes this year, while the markets had been expecting the first next year.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen
Fed likely to hike in June if data improve: Minutes
Fed watchers will especially be zoning in on the words of the key core Fed members, Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and New York Fed President William Dudley. Both Dudley and Fischer speak Thursday.
"Dudley will be key," said Michael Hanson, senior economist at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch. Dudley, viewed as dovish, holds a press briefing on the economy at 10:30 a.m. EDT., while Fischer is speaking at 9:15 a.m. at an event honoring economist Michael Woodford at Columbia University. Yellen has an appearance at Radcliffe in May but on June 5, she speaks in Philadelphia at the World Affairs Council.

"On June 6, she's got a full-blown speech on the outlook and the global context that will be key. If something global is going to slow the Fed, that will be good time for her to make that point," Hanson said.

Hanson said he recently changed his expected timing on the next Fed rate hike from June to September. "We had thought June, up until a couple weeks ago, when the data softened, and the uncertainty was lingering. There was Brexit and all that stuff, and I felt the committee was going to let inflation overshoot," he said.


Blame this for that spike in weekly jobless claims
Besides the Fed speak on Thursday, markets will be watching closely when unemployment claims are released at 8:30 a.m. after last week's surprising jump. About 20,000 of the 294,000 were blamed on New York City schools' spring break by several economists. Expectations are that claims fell back to 272,000. The Philadelphia Fed survey is also released at 8:30 a.m.
Major companies reporting Thursday include Wal-Mart, ****'s Sporting Goods and Advance Auto Parts before the bell. After the close, Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and Shoe Carnival report.

Stocks sold off after the Fed but ended the day flat. The S&P 500 rose less than a point to 2,047. Treasury yields continued this week's move higher, with the two-year at 0.88 in late trading after touching 0.92 percent. The Fed-sensitive two-year has been outpacing the 10-year, which was little changed at 1.85 percent.

"Don't go too crazy on the June rate hike. There's still a lot of hurdles and even if those hurdles are met, there's still a Brexit vote," said John Briggs, head of strategy at RBS
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 19, 2016, 08:59:52 AM



Could this post-Fed bond selloff be a repeat of ‘taper tantrum’?

By Ellie Ismailidou
Published: May 18, 2016 5:04 p.m. ET

     7 
10-year Treasury yield logged its largest daily spike in 5 months after the Fed’s surprise
Reuters
Could Fed Chair Janet Yellen send the bond market into another tantrum?
A spike in Treasury yields, which posted Wednesday their largest daily jump in five months after the Federal Reserve said it is open to hiking interest rates in June, fueled fears of a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” during which yields skyrocketed as government bonds got hammered.

In May 2013, after a mere suggestion of an imminent reduction in bond purchases by then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, panic spread in the bond market, leading the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.24%  to gain 140 basis points in just four months.

On Wednesday, the 10-year yield jumped 12.3 basis points, logging its largest daily jump since December, after the minutes from the Fed’s April meeting showed most Fed policy makers were ready to lift interest rates in June, if the economy improved.


The news clearly surprised the market, which as recently as last week had all but ruled out the possibility of a rate hike in June.

The dollar soared to a one-month high after the release, while the market-implied probability of a June rate hike jumped in the fed-funds futures market.

The sharp selloff in the Treasury market brought back painful memories of the 2013 bond rout, making analysts wonder if this is a precursor of a “Taper Tantrum: Part 2.”

Though the steepness of the yield increase seems similar to 2013, analysts noted that there are fundamental differences between 2013 and today’s market.

First of all, in 2013, Bernanke’s taper talk led to a decrease in inflation expectations, as the market was worried that the tapering process would choke off growth and inflation.

But in today’s market, the opposite appears to be happening. “Even though the Fed would like to talk up the risks of too high inflation in the future, markets are quite a distance away from pricing such an outcome,” said Aaron Kohli, interest-rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets, in emailed comments on Wednesday.

“The inflation risk premium that is priced into the curve is minimal and the market’s forward view on inflation is equally abysmal,” Kohli said.

From a technical standpoint, the overall yield of a Treasury bond can be parsed into its “risk-neutral” yield, which captures expectations for future levels of the federal-funds rate during the bond’s lifetime, and its “term premium,” which captures the influence on the yield of all other forces, including future inflation expectations.

So Treasury yields “continue to be depressed by other forces” besides rate-hike expectations, a report by Capital Economics noted on Wednesday.

According to the report, the “term premium” of the 10-year Treasury yield has recently fallen close to its lowest in more than 50 years, as the following chart shows.

Capital Economics
Another important element that makes this market different from the 2013 taper tantrum is foreign demand for U.S. Treasurys, which should keep any increase in Treasury yields contained, analysts said.

With investors fleeing ultra-low and negative interest rates in Europe and Japan, foreign demand for U.S. Treasurys has recently spiked, as U.S. government debt offers a higher yield compared to other countries of comparable credit quality, such as Germany and Japan.

According to the most recent Treasury International Capital data, foreign demand was highest in long-term Treasurys, with foreign investors buying $23.6 billion in long-term Treasurys in March, the highest amount in four months, as the following chart shows.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch
On Wednesday, the spike in U.S. Treasury yields led the yield differential, or spread, between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year German bond TMBMKDE-10Y, +29.83% to widen to 171.5 basis points, its widest since late March, according to FactSet, as the following chart shows.

FactSet
The increasing yield differential is bound to make U.S. Treasurys more attractive, fueling foreign demand that would push Treasury prices higher and yields lower, analysts said.

“Take a look at where [the German] bund yield is and you’ll see why Treasury yields can’t really rise too much,” said Jack Flaherty, a fixed-income portfolio manager at money-manager GAM.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 19, 2016, 10:50:06 AM



《美股》Fed偏鷹、美元衝!銀行樂、原料哭 道瓊平盤
回應(0) 人氣(863) 收藏(0) 2016/05/19 07:32
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-05-19 07:32:00 記者 郭妍希 報導
聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)4月貨幣政策會議紀錄意外偏鷹派、暗示6月可能升息,消息傳來帶動美元指數與公債殖利率跳升、油價與金價腳軟,而在銀行類股攀升抵銷原物料類股疲勢的影響下,道瓊工業平均指數、標準普爾500指數終場在平盤附近作收。
道瓊工業平均指數5月18日終場下跌0.02%(0.36點)、收17,526.62點,創3月24日以來收盤新低。那斯達克指數上漲0.5%(23.39點)、收4,739.12點。標準普爾500指數上漲0.02%(0.42點)、收2,047.63點。費城半導體指數上漲1.64%(10.46點)、收649.35點。
聯準會(Fed)於18日午後公布的FOMC 4月會議記錄顯示,大多數與會官員認為,假如經濟持續改善,那麼6月升息應是適當舉措。不過,官員們對到時候經濟狀況是否可以達標,意見仍相當分歧。部分人並擔憂,金融市場對6月升息根本沒有做好心理準備。

其實,在FOMC 4月發布的會後聲明中,Fed刻意拿掉了「全球經濟與金融發展持續構成風險」這句話,在當時就暗示金融市況有所改善。在此之後,多名Fed官員紛紛發表了鷹派觀點,只是投資人仗著Fed主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)立場仍鴿派,至今仍把鷹派的警告當成耳邊風。
FOMC會議紀錄比市場預期還要偏鷹,讓許多投資人措手不及。紀錄公布後,交易商預期的6月升息機率從週一(16日)的4%、週二的14%一口氣暴衝至30%,7月的升息機率預估值更從上週的16%狂升至接近50%。9月如今是第一個升息機率超過50%的月份,比一週前的明(2017)年2月份提前了5個月之多。
路透社報導,追蹤美元相對六大主要貨幣一籃子匯價的ICE美元指數(US Dollar Index,簡稱DXY)18日聞訊跳漲0.69%,收盤創3月底以來新高。
MarketWatch報導,Tradeweb報價顯示,對Fed利率決策較敏感的美國2年期公債殖利率在FOMC紀錄公布後驟升7.7個基點至0.900%,創3月15日以來新高,也是2015年12月29日以來最大單日漲幅。銀行類股受到殖利率跳升有望推高獲利的激勵而走強,花旗(Citigroup Inc.)、美國銀行(Bank of America Corporation)分別跳漲4.97%、4.85%。
油價、金價在美元走強的衝擊下雙雙腳軟。紐約商業交易所(NYMEX)6月原油期貨18日稍早原本直奔今年收盤高,但FOMC紀錄發布後卻讓稍早的漲幅全部吐回,終場更下跌0.2%、收48.19美元。另外,紐約商品期貨交易所(COMEX)6月黃金期貨18日在正常交易時段下跌0.2%、每盎司收1,274.40美元;盤後電子盤又續挫0.9%至1,265美元。
原物料類股走軟。煤礦與天然氣供應商Consol Energy Inc.、石油和天然氣探勘暨生產商契薩皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy Corp.)與全球產量最大金礦商加拿大巴瑞克黃金公司(Barrick Gold)分別下跌6.77%、2.04%與9.03%。世界最大上市銅礦商美國自由港麥克墨倫公司(Freeport-Mcmoran inc.)也同步下挫8.43%。
民生必需品(consumer staples)類股連續第2個交易日下挫,肉品及食品加工商Hormel Foods Corp.大跌8.56%、創2008年最大單日跌幅,主因毛利率萎縮引發疑慮。好市多(Costco Wholesale Corp.)過去6個交易日有5日走軟,沃爾瑪(Wal-Mart)則出現去年10月以來最大兩日跌幅。
美國第六大零售商Target Corporation 18日公佈的2016年第1季度(2-4月)營收不如市場預期,並預估本季同店銷售將因消費趨勢趨緩而下滑0-2%,每股盈餘經調整後將降至1.00-1.20美元。Reuters報導,Target執行長Brian Cornell 18日在財報電話會議上坦承Target跟主要競爭對手的銷售額趨勢都出現轉弱跡象。他預期零售商為了出清過多庫存將加大降價力道。Target 18日放量跳空大跌7.62%,收68.00美元、創1月20日以來收盤新低。
在個股消息方面,美國豪華電動車製造商特斯拉(Tesla Motors Inc.)受到高盛建議買進、認為該公司勢將打亂汽車產業整體生態的激勵,終場跳漲3.18%、收211.17美元。不過,特斯拉盤後公布要辦理20億美元的現金增資,高盛是主要的承銷商之一,消息傳來引發網友撻伐


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 20, 2016, 07:25:37 AM



SaxoBank CIO Warns "Central Banks Can Do Nothing"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/19/2016 15:05 -0400

Bank of England Bernie Sanders BOE Brazil Central Banks China Davos Donald Trump European Central Bank European Union Federal Reserve France Germany Global Economy Greece International Monetary Fund Ireland Janet Yellen Monetary Policy Nationalism R Squared Reality recovery Saxo Bank Volatility World Trade


 
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Authored by SaxoBank's Michael McKenna via Tradingfloor.com,

2016 has seen a popular reaction against zero-bound policies
Political elites are struggling to preserve an unfruitful status quo
'The world has become elitist in every way': Jakobsen
Political middle has become crowded, stagnant; new spectrum of ideas needed
Investment in education and research needed; zero rates are a dead end
Saxo chief economist remains 'very positive' overall
In April 2015, Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen said that zero rates, zero growth, zero productivity, and zero reforms have left a great many countries adrift in a “new nothingness”.

The products of this nothingness, said Jakobsen, include apathy, stagnation and “an economic outlook based more in peoples’ heads than in reality”. On the cultural level, he continued, the widespread lack of dynamism and new ideas has empowered a political class that is “mainly interested in maintaining the status quo”, even as that status quo provides sharply diminishing returns.

US GDP growth, for instance, is hugging the zero line:

US real GDP
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
 
A little more than one year on and we remain, in terms of economics and monetary policy at least, profoundly entranced by this combination of zero-bound policies and continual “emergency measures”.
 
Culturally and politically, however, the past 12 months have demonstrated time and time again that nature abhors a vacuum.
 
In Europe, for instance, we have the spectacle of the European Union’s second-largest economy voting on whether it wants to leave the union next month. In the United States, the candidacies of Democratic senator Bernie Sanders and Republican front-runner Donald Trump have benefitted enormously from widespread frustration with the current consensus, particularly in the realm of trade where both candidates – one hard left, one populist right – point to a declining US manufacturing sector and a recovery bereft of “breadwinner” jobs as signs that the country has been led astray.
 
The list doesn’t end there. From the European migrant crisis to the rise of far-right political parties such as Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland and France’s Front National; from the the apparent stalling of the Federal Reserve’s policy normalisation plans to the European Central Bank’s continued adventures in quasi-permanent stimulus, the past 12 months have demonstrated that “nothingness” breeds restlessness.
 
This restlessness, as we have seen, will find release on the cultural level despite the hesitancy of central bank policy mandarins and political elites.
 
With this in mind, we sat down with Jakobsen to discuss the new nothingness, the even newer reactions to such, and his outlook for the global economy.
 
TradingFloor.com: The “new nothingness” thesis was based on zero rates, zero growth, zero reforms. But you hinted that all of this nothingness has spilled over into culture and politics as well… do these macro facts hinder peoples’ imagination, or their ability to deal with the problem?
 
Steen Jakobsen: Yes, I think so. This year, we see a growing gap between the central banks’ narrative – which is that you have a trickle-down impact from lower rates – and [the situation on the ground].
 
People understand that zero interest rates are a reflection of zero growth, zero inflation, zero hope for changes, and zero reforms.
 
In my opinion as an economist and a market observer, people are smarter than central banks. And because they are smarter, they can live with policy mistakes for a while because the narrative is very strong and because people like (European Central Bank head Mario) Draghi and (Federal Reserve chief Janet) Yellen have these platforms from which they not only talk but occasionally shout, and they are deemed to be “credible”, scare quotes mine…
 
We see [this gap] in the Brexit debate as well, where the elite and the academics talk down to the average voter. By doing that, of course, they alienate the voters from their representatives.
 
Jean-Claude Juncker
Counterpoint?: "Too many politicians are listening to their [voters]",
says European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker
 
That’s what we see globally, that’s why Brazil is going to change presidents, why Ireland could not get its government re-elected with 6% growth. It’s not about the top line, but about the average person seeing that we need real, fundamental change.
 
TF: Earlier this year, you said that the social contract – the agreement between rulers and the ruled – is broken. It made me think of this year’s Davos meeting, which showed a leadership class terrified of slowing jobs growth and enamoured with the idea that population movements might be used to address this. Given the current unpopularity of globalisation and its effects, would you say that there are some things it is impossible for 21st century leaders and the led to agree upon? Is a social contract impossible?
 
SJ: No, it could be re-established, but it needs to be established on terra firma. Right now, we have a panacea in the form of low rates and the idea that things will somehow improve in six months. This has led to buyback programmes, a lack of motivation [and all the rest].
 
We as a society have to recognise that productivity comes from raising the average education level. People forget that all the revolutionary trends, the changes we’ve seen in history, have come from basic research. I don’t mean research driven by profit, but by an individual’s particular interest in one very minute area of a specific topic. This is what creates new inventions.
 
The second thing we often forget is that the military has been behind a lot of the industrial revolution. Mobile telephony, for example, had nothing to do with private citizens or companies – instead, it had a lot to do with the US military.
 
The key thing here is that we need to be more productive. If everyone has a job, there is no need to renegotiate the social contract.
 
The world has become elitist in every way. Before, you could start a company and build a small franchise; now, you have to be global, you have to have a billion users (if you’re an IT company), and [the pursuit of this] does not necessarily provide the best technologies, but only the biggest ones, the ones backed by [the firms with] the deepest pockets and largest web of connections.
 
We need to democratise the ability to be educated because we don’t know what’s going to work and not going to work. What we do know is that the social contract needs to come from better education levels.
 
There exist a huge number of studies that show a correlation – in mathematical terms, an R squared value – of 80% between the average education of a country or company and the productivity of same.
 
US unemployment rates
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
 
TF: Last week, you retweeted an article claiming that $127 billion in labour and services could be replaced by drones. Is automation, and the consequent lack of working-class jobs, partly responsible for “the new nothingness”?
 
SJ: Like everything else, there is an equilibrium between supply and demand at work here. On the supply side, we must consider that, in Western Europe at least, the amount of people needing jobs will be smaller in 10 or 20 years […] we need automation to pay for the lack of people in the workforce.
 
This is probably the first period in the evolution of technology where tech is deducting rather than adding jobs. But I think it ultimately will add jobs again, because productivity will pick up.
 
The demographic component here is that we will have less supply in labour markets in the future, so we need a more efficient way of doing things, a cheaper way.
 
That’s the good news. The bad news is that the next decade will be very, very challenging, and you haven’t even spoken about immigration and refugees – [this phenomenon] is adding to the labour market’s net supply while the net demand from employers is very low because of indirect taxes, regulations and the like.
 
So again, we need to go back and address what is feasible, or possible. I very rarely agree with the International Monetary Fund, for example, but if Germany can borrow at negative interest rates and invest in infrastructure, why wouldn’t they do it?
 
Infrastructure is and always will be productive; productivity improvements don’t happen because of silly shenanigans concerning politics…
 
There are a lot of things that can be done in the short term, but underneath all of this is a long-term view that you need to make people smarter. If they’re smarter, they’ll be more productive, more self-reliant, they’ll have better lives.
 
Yes, the political system is doing us a disservice, but we as individuals have also become extremely lazy and we are not intellectually challenged.
 
TF: You mentioned supply and demand and demographic changes. Before German chancellor Angela Merkel launched the refugee programme that has seen over a million people arrive in Germany, there were several reports from EU banks and think tanks calling for an injection of new working-aged people into Europe. Why were they calling for that if growth and the jobs market are stuck at zero?
 
SJ: Again there are two sides. Looking at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s report on immigration and migration, for example, it shows that in the history of European immigration, 75% of all immigrants have been put into some kind of work and become productive taxpayers within one year of their arrival.
 
Refugees
A refugee family arrives in Greece: Despite concerns about jobs and culture, Europe has historically had a great deal of success economically integrating newcomers. Photo: iStock
 
If you can retain that 75% inclusion rate, immigration will provide a huge boost in terms of injecting workers into a faltering demographic context. These are young, aggressive, multicultural people who are going to add colour and flavour to a continent that has been too homogenous for too long.
 
TF: But isn’t this very difference what is currently unpopular, what is fueling the rise of right-wing nationalism and other such movements?
 
SJ: People are always afraid of change. We are programmed to want today to be very much like yesterday. We don’t have high aspirations.
 
[On the other hand], people thrive when they are challenged. While the political narrative on refugees might follow the script you just laid out, for an economist like me it’s very clear: immigration is positive.
 
Of course, you can get too much of a good thing in too short of a time. If we knew now that the maximum amount [of incoming migrants] would be, for argument’s sake, 3 million over the next 10 years, then Europe could easily adapt and put these people to work.
 
The problem is that we currently have an infinite number and it is seen as an issue in the political spectrum – it’s not an economic issue.
 
There is nothing empirically that says refugees are a negative. It can challenge the social fabric, it can challenge the political spectrum, but to me that’s a good thing – we need openness.
 
Are there problems with this? Yes, but there are also problems with being a startup, or with riding your bike for the first time. I don’t think there is anything in life that doesn’t come with some pain. I think you need to play through the pain to become better.
 
TF: We mentioned the expansion of the political spectrum, how we’re seeing more interest in the far left, but I think notably we’re seeing more interest in the far-right with FN, with AfD and with Donald Trump in the US. Now, a huge amount of his support comes from the perception that globalisation – NAFTA, the TPP, Chinese manufacturing – has harmed US workers, and his solution is protectionism. What would a world in which the US enacted protectionist policies look like?
 
SJ: The irony is that we already have protectionism. Trade volume and trade value has been collapsing for the past 24 months. If you look at the trade talks that happen under the umbrella of the World Trade Organization, they have achieved absolutely nothing since China’s inclusion.
 
Donald Trump
"Bad deals!" Photo: iStock
 
There are also signs, practically and economically, that you can have too much of a good thing in terms of the division of labour. You can actually come to a point where you end up with an endless deficit in one country and an endless surplus in another if the deficit country does not have the ability to respond to the deficit, whether through a weaker currency or by being more productive.
 
The US is the prime example of this phenomenon which is why Trump is having so much of a tailwind.
 
The US has basically been living off of cheaper imports for a very long time. There is a lot of pain in the US, but for the middle class the pain has been cushioned by the fact that Chinese imports, Vietnamese shoes and the like are just so much cheaper.
 
Trump is having a good time right now, but it is not because he is right about protectionism versus free trade. It’s because we are at the end of the cycle where the US benefitted massively from lower import prices on consumer goods, which make up 70% of US consumption.
 
If, like Trump wants, an iPhone were to be produced in the US, it would cost $2,000 or more. This is why Trump is wrong – if that were the case, we wouldn’t see the sales that we do, we wouldn’t see the share price that we do.
 
TF: Wouldn’t his argument, or the protectionist one, be that real wages are stagnant, and if working class or manufacturing jobs had remained in the US, then people might not be so dependent on low prices?
 
SJ: That’s a circular argument. The fact is that the US doesn’t have a competitive productive base anymore. In some industries they do, like in cars, but to a large extent the car industry is subsidised.
 
It’s not that the US worker can’t do the work, he’s just massively more expensive. The price difference between producing Nike shoes in the US versus Vietnam is, in my best estimation, one to 10 if not one to 20.
 
The amount of US workers at or below the minimum wage is decreasing:
 
US wage growth
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
 
If you want to pay $500 for trainers, you can have the Trump version. The reality, as with so many things in life, lies between Trump and globalisation.
 
Let’s look at a Danish example: I never understood, for example, why [pharmaceuticals giant] Novo Nordisk don’t use some of the money they put into funds and trusts and [architecture] for basic research, for something – like penicillin, for example – that might do some good in the world.
 
Of course, they don’t do it because there’s no profit in, but [they are overlooking the fact that] something could come out of that research, something that would give them a new product…
 
Everyone in the world is just looking out for number one. We’ve lost the coherent belief that underlies the social contract.
 
Historically speaking, the most successful examples of social contract formation occurred under benign kings, under regimes that tolerated a sophisticated bureaucratic class and a robust opposition.
 
You have the [Russian president Vladimir] Putins and [Turkish president Recep Tayyip] Erdogans and these people who can execute power… they destroy society. You need both sides, and that’s why I talk about the far left and the far right creating a new spectrum a new middle ground.
 
The problem now is that the middle has effectively disappeared. Everyone wants to be in the middle, and the result is that there are no new ideas.
 
The media are always considering demand independent of supply and vice versa – nobody is covering the balance.
 
TF: Finally, you have said that continual emergency measures are unhealthy, and that’s very much where we are with central banks – negative rates, zero rates. But following the one US rate hike that happened, we saw a huge retreat from the US normalisation narrative.
 
If continual emergency measures are unhealthy, but the world’s arguably strongest economy has stalled on the road to normalisation, what can central bankers do?
 
SJ: They can do nothing. They should do nothing. They should go away.
 
If you look at monetary history prior to the formation of the Bank of England – the world’s first central bank – you will find that economic cycles were more stable then. Since the founding of the BoE and the Fed 102 years ago, we’ve seen an increased amount of business cycle up and downs.
 
Bank of England
The Old Lady of Volatility Street? Photo: iStock
 
The problem is that the fractional monetary system is based on access to credit, and the only institutions that create credit in this system are the banks.
 
Central banks keep these institutions alive with one hand, but choke them with the other. [The result, as we see this year] is that they are underperforming relative to the broader indices, so their ability to go to the marketplace and get more money is diluted.
 
We have a very vicious negative cycle that is initiated by the central banks. They’re not exclusively guilty, of course, and central bankers would rebut this argument with one saying that monetary policy cannot work on its own, you also need fiscal stimulus… but that’s all nonsense.
 
The way societies survive is by creating frameworks in which people can be productive. This is based, again, on basic research, which is in turn based on general education levels.
 
Let me end this little talk by saying that I am very positive. I think [the reaction to the new nothingness] is the best news that has happened in the last 10 years, because now people are starting to ask about the social contract.
 
We are now questioning the central banks’ model.
 
I could be wrong with all my criticism, but I am not wrong in saying that if you give people incentives and if you educate people, you become more productive.
 
If I'm running a football team, I don't try and improve my players' performance by feeding them pizza every day, but this is what the central banks are doing. They're feeding us burgers and pizza when we need food – training programmes, education, intellectual stimulation
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 21, 2016, 09:25:22 AM



Week ahead will tell whether markets challenge Fed
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
2 Hours Ago
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The key to the coming week will be about whether markets can absorb the Fed's rate hike message without getting indigestion.

The central bank bombarded markets in the past week with the message that it could raise interest rates for the second time in nine years as early as June, if the economy continues to improve as expected. What was different in its message was the new urgency of the timing, made clear in the minutes from its last meeting and in the comments from Fed officials.

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So there will be much interest in the handful of central bank speakers in the coming week, with particular focus on Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who will be at Harvard on Friday afternoon. Yellen is receiving the Radcliffe Medal, and she will also be interviewed by economist Greg Mankiw.


Fencing match
Matthew Stockman | Getty Images
There are also a few economic reports, including Monday's Markit PMIs for the U.S., Japan and Europe, and U.S. advanced international trade data Wednesday and U.S. durable goods Thursday. A smattering of companies also report earnings, with a few remaining retailers — Costco, Tiffany, Best Buy, Abercrombie & Fitch and Dollar General, among them.

But the market's very behavior will be most important, and whether it prices in the Fed's rate hike without turning violent.

"For me, that's probably the biggest risk. It looks like the growth numbers are lining up for a 2 (percent) handle for the second quarter which looks like plenty. ... Short of a real disaster in markets, I think the Fed is going to have to look through this market thing and not get pushed around by the markets all the time and get scared into not doing anything. I think market reaction in the last couple of days is encouraging, but maybe that means the market doesn't believe them," said Robert Sinche, global strategist at Amherst Pierpont Securities.

Odds of a Fed rate hike were about 30 percent for June on Friday, from just 4 percent the week earlier, according to futures markets. July odds were about 50 percent.

A costumed reveller wearing a mask depicting Munch's famous painting 'The Scream' poses near St Mark's square during the carnival on February 21, 2014 in Venice.
Signs of fear are running rampant through the market
The stock market in the past week was turbulent, but the S&P 500 finished the week slightly higher, with a gain of 0.3 percent to 2,052. The Dow fell slightly, however, ending at 17,500, a decline of 0.2 percent for the week. But on Friday, all major stock market indexes rose, and a rally in tech pushed the Nasdaq 1.2 percent higher. It finished at 4,769, a gain of 1 percent for the week.

The big move came in the Treasury market, where the 10-year yield rose to trade at 1.84 percent late Friday, from 1.70 percent the week earlier. The two-year yield also climbed to 0.88 percent by Friday. The dollar index rose 0.8 percent for the week, with the dollar rising against most currencies.

Markets will watch the dollar's reaction.

"It's going to be a fairly volatile summer," said Daniel Katzive, head of North America foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas. He said there could be big moves in the currency market but perhaps not much difference in levels in the next couple of months. "We'll have a lot of choppiness. It's not going to be a low-volatility summer. The levels of the dollar Memorial Day may look very similar to what they look like Labor Day. ... We might not be getting anywhere on net."

Katzive said BNP's base case is that the Fed will not hike this year, or even next, because the economy is not quite strong enough. He said the central bank's rate rise talk could restart the negative feedback loop that took place this year, when a strong dollar leaned on emerging markets currencies, including the Chinese yuan, and commodities prices, creating tight financial conditions and economic weakness.

"I think what's going to happen is the market's going to try to price Fed tightening and see how sustainable that is. We've seen the feedback loop operating over the past six months. The Fed sounds hawkish. The dollar goes up, rates go up and that starts to feed back into the market," he said.

He said the market did manage to take the fourth-quarter rate hike in stride. "We think the data is going to be too mixed, and we think financial conditions won't allow it. But nothing is set in stone. With the Fed, if financial conditions are better and the data is better, then they have a window ... the world is not a predictable place."

Some economists and market pros have cheered the Fed for hiking rates because they see the economy as strong enough, and believe it's time the central bank removes some stimulus. They believe the market reaction does not have to be negative.

"The Fed has to do this," said Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup U.S. equity strategist. "Will the Fed raise rates because the economy is strong, and earnings are going to pick up? That's not bad. ... It's still early in the stage of tightening where you can't say: 'This is going to kill the market.' It's not usually the second or third rate hike that's going to do that."

Levkovich said the market could pull back but he sees that as temporary and added the expected volatility this summer should bring buying opportunities. He said he's watching one indicator that is signaling that stocks could face choppiness. When the S&P stocks are highly correlated, the market usually does better. But currently, he says stocks are just about 20 percent correlated to each other, indicating there could be a rough spot ahead.

"That could suggest some macro dynamic could throw you off. It could be the dollar moves a certain way, or oil throws it off. That would be why we're saying buy on weakness," he said. Levkovich expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 2,150.

"I'm less freaked out by Fed issues other than you might have to position portfolios differently," he said. "When the Fed was raising rates and bond yields were moving up, traditionally defensives don't do well, and more cyclical stocks tend to do better and financials do better," he said. For example this past week, defensive utilities were the worst performers, down 2.4 percent. Tech, helped by a rally in semiconductors, was one of the better-performing sectors, up 1.4 percent, the same as the gains in financials.

"If the U.S. does well, the rest of the world benefits. It may not be that disruptive to the dollar. Bond yields around the world could edge higher too. It's not just that U.S. bond yields go up, it's the differential. ... There was a sense the dollar will go up forever. That was the view six months ago," said Levkovich.

G-7 finance ministers will meet over the weekend, but strategists are not looking for any news from there.

"I think they're just doing the normal dance. They'll talk about terror financing in light of what just happened. They were going to do it anyway," said Sinche. "They don't really have any answer on fiscal stimulus. It's actually pretty depressing. You would think they would have some sort of initiative, pledges."

Repeatedly, central bankers have called for fiscal stimulus programs to nudge the world's slow-growing economy. "It's kind of mind boggling when you think about it. ... You've got close to zero borrowing costs, monetary policy that's tapped out and nobody wants to discuss fiscal stimulus at all," he said.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 21, 2016, 04:17:25 PM



Fed rate hike isn’t all ‘doom and gloom’ for stocks: JPM strategist
Annie Pei
Thursday, 19 May 2016 | 2:18 PM ET
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The potential for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in June appears to be spooking the market, but one market strategist says that stocks will likely rise in an environment that will lead the central bank to raise rates.

On Wednesday, the Fed released minutes from the April policy meeting in which it indicated that if the data continue to improve, it could raise its target federal funds rate as early as June. The announcement caused the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average to slide down into Thursday, showing the anxiety surrounding a possible move by the central bank.

But Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, says that if the economy continues to improve, stocks are set to do well no matter what the Fed does.

"If you just think about the underlying reason why the Fed would be hiking rates, it's because the economy's doing fairly well," she said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "Things are normalizing; as a result that could be a positive thing for earnings, for stocks, for general risk assets. It doesn't have to be doom and gloom."

Read MoreMarket's early reaction to a Fed June rate hike is NO!

Santos is especially bullish on the "cyclical" sectors that do best in an improving economy, such as consumer discretionary, financials and technology.

Currency strategist Boris Schlossberg agrees with Santos' take.

"This is the absolute right time for them to do a rate hike in June before the general election starts, before you have turmoil in the markets," Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management, said Wednesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

"So I think what will happen here is you'll have this rate hike in June, and then another pause for six months. And that's probably going to create a much bigger calm than people think."

"Would it help financial stocks right now? Absolutely. Is it going to steep the curve for a bit? Absolutely. But I don't think long-term secular move by the Fed, by any means, this is just a one and done move to satisfy the markets," he said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 22, 2016, 05:48:37 AM


How to make money off the Fed’s next interest rate move

By Mark Hulbert
Published: May 20, 2016 10:01 a.m. ET

     26 
Timing of next rate hike makes no difference
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Ready for today’s investment challenge? Give a plausible argument for why the stock market should have plunged earlier this week upon learning that the Fed may raise rates at its June meeting.

I seriously doubt you can come up with one; at least none of the economists I have spoken with in recent weeks was able to do so. On the contrary, each told me that the timing of the Fed’s rate increase is irrelevant.

Typical were the remarks of John Graham, a Duke University finance professor: “I am hard pressed to come up with any rational valuation model for equities in which the difference in three or six months in the timing of an increase has a material impact on stocks’ fair value.”



In fact, the only scenario in which the timing of a rate increase would make even a modest difference is one in which rates otherwise stay low forever. But I’m unaware of anyone who seriously entertains such a scenario.

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Think like Buffett: 3 stocks for a volatile market(4:30)
Financial advisor Wally Obermeyer expects more volatility in the market. He's looking to pick up shares of Brookdale Senior Living, Google, and Intel on dips.

And if rates are going to be raised at some point in the coming year or two, the timing of that increase makes surprisingly little difference. I won’t burden this column with the math, but be my guest with your spreadsheet program: Calculate the present value of a stream of future earnings or dividends under different timing assumptions. You’ll find that the results of your calculations are virtually the same regardless of whether rates are increased this June, or September, or December — or even in 2017.


Accordingly, in the immortal words of “Star Trek’s” Mr. Spock: “A difference that makes no difference is not a difference.”

I know that it’s dangerous to believe that we know more than the markets do. But in this case the irrational obsession with the timing of the rate hike can be traced to Wall Street’s need to have something new and interesting to focus on every day. Any responsible econometric model has numerous inputs that don’t change every day, and when one of them does the overall model’s forecast changes only marginally.

In short, such models are B-O-R-I-N-G, while obsessing about the Fed is anything but. The Federal Reserve governors’ regular speeches enable investment advisers to think they are doing real work by endlessly analyzing the governors’ every word. The news media is a co-conspirator in this process. No one stops to ask whether it makes any real difference.

Fortunately, you can make money from the market’s irrationality: Do the opposite of what the market does.

If it appears the Fed will act sooner rather than later, and the market plunges — as it did earlier this week — then think about increasing your equity exposure.

Likewise, if the Fed appears ready to postpone its next rate hike and the market soars, you might want to take some chips off the table
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 22, 2016, 09:44:12 AM



Why Deutsche Bank Thinks A Fed Rate Hike Would Unleash A Stock Market Crash
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/21/2016 18:01 -0400

China Deutsche Bank Global Economy High Yield Investment Grade Market Crash Monetary Policy Recession recovery


 
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Following this week's FOMC Minutes shows, which violently repriced June rate hike odds from 4% to 30% and July from 20% to 50%, the cries of lenienecy have begun, and nobody is doing so louder than Deutsche Bank which in an overnight credit summary note tries to make it clear that "the market is not ready for a June hike."

Why is Germany's largest bank, whose stock price is trading just barely above 52 weeks lows and level not seen since the financial crisis so worried? Simple: "the hawkish minutes will weigh on risk, bias yields lower, and flatten the curve" for the simple reason that the Fed is so clueless it "seems to be interpreting recent easing in financial conditions as an opportunity to force rate expectations higher." Instead, the Fed is once again confusing cause and effect, and DB says the "ease in financial conditions occurred precisely because of the Fed’s dovish turn earlier this year." Hence why DB is confident a hawkish turn will push markets right back where they were in December and January, prior to the February Shanghai Accord.

Of course, we already gave this explanation last fall, just before the Fed's December rate hike. It's time to give it again, and amusingly, DB agrees because as Dominic Konstam writes, "If you think you’ve seen this movie before it’s because you have."

Alas, it is indeed deja vu all over again:

Like during 2015, the Fed appears bent on pushing rate expectations higher, and the operative question is whether the more hawkish turn to Fed rhetoric will up-end risk and tighten financial conditions to the extent that a rate hike is imprudent if not impossible given the latent fault lines in the global economy.
 
Last year the Fed attempted to prepare the market for a September hike at the June meeting with a decidedly negative result, and then had another go in October for the December meeting with the result that markets tolerated December lift-off before coming apart early in 2016. The operative question is whether markets are sufficiently calm for the Fed to use the June 2016 meeting to pave the way for a July hike.
And this is why Deutsche Thinks that just like in July/August and January/February, as the market starts to earnestly pricing in a June/July rate hike, everything is about to plunge once more:


We think the answer is no because the issue is not just the timing of a single hike toward some static goal for rate level in 2017. What is at issue is the existence of some Shanghai “accord” whereby global policymakers have agreed explicitly or implicitly that excessive dollar strength is counterproductive and that policymakers should shift their focus to domestic demand and structural reform within an environment of dollar stability, at least through the next G20 in early autumn. If there is no accord then divergent monetary policy could drive the dollar stronger, restarting among other things speculation against CNH versus the dollar rather than CNY versus the entire CNY basket with now very familiar results: reserve loss exacerbating higher Fed expectations for US rates, and downward pressure on risk assets with a non-trivial chance that China might devalue and, worse yet, do so in a lumpy fashion.
Or just as we said on Thursday, it will be all up to China again to stop the Fed's rate hike:

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 zerohedge ‎@zerohedge
Looks like its up to China again to derail the Fed's June rate hike plans
2:44 AM - 20 May 2016
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Still, assuming the Fed ignores Deutsche Bank's laments for a reprieve - because as we saw in February, DB may well be the first bank to go under should the market be swept by another global round of risk off - this is how a rate hike could take place.

The risk is that the Fed might use the June meeting to pre-announce a press conference around the July meeting, or in some other way “pre-commit” to a July hike. The issue is that with still benign wage pressure and inflation, premature and more aggressive Fed hikes would drive real yields higher for the wrong reason. This is the policy error scenario. Yellen’s timeout drove real yields roughly 70 bp lower from the late 2015 highs, but levels have already more than doubled from the lows by virtue of little more than “why not raise rates for the sake of it” rhetoric. What Fed officials seem to be suggesting is that they might be growing increasingly nervous about low real rates fuelling asset classes like equities, investment grade credit, and gold even though other risky assets such as high yield and emerging markets do not perform  well absent higher breakevens. The risk case is then that an overly aggressive Fed would push real yields up and breakevens down, thus undermining risk assets generally.
But which risk asset is at most, pardon the pun, at risk?

One issue is precisely what risk asset valuations are telling us. If we consider risk asset valuations as a function of Fed-related variables – say, breakevens and real yields –market valuations of HY, IG, and EM are more or less consistent with “fair” levels given these variables and their historical relationship with asset valuations. Note that DXY appears too high from this perspective, while oil appears too low.
 

 
The outlier appears to be SPX, where valuations appear excessive given the breakeven/real yield framework.
And while DB's points are mostly valid, its agenda becomes fully transparent with the next sentence:

This is not to say that the Fed can never raise rates because of negative impact on financial variables, but it is far from clear to us that the Fed should be hiking against financial market froth when many asset classes have only partially recovered from losses last year.
Actually that's exactly what it says (ignoring the pleas by all those hundreds of millions of elderly retirees whose only source of income used to be interest income and who have been left for dead under a central bank regime which only caters to its commercial bank owners) and the longer the world eases financial conditions, either via QE or ZIRP or NIRP, the more impossible it will be for the Fed to ever hike; in fact the next big move will be just the one Deutsche Bank has been begging for all along - unleashing helicopter money.

In fact, we are confused by Konstam's note: if indeed DB wants (and needs) a monetary paradrop (recall "According To Deutsche Bank, The "Worst Kind Of Recession" May Have Already Started"), then a policy error is precisely what the Fed should engage in.  Not only will it send markets into a long, long overdue tailspin, one from which the only recovery will be the bubble to end all bubbles, the end of monetarism as we know it courtesy of the quite literal money paradrop, but reset not just the US economy but that of the entire world, in the process wiping out tens of trillions in unrepayable debt, and allowing the system the much needed reboot we have been urging ever since our start in 2009.

We are confident that just like everything else predicted on these pages, it is only a matter of time now before this final outcome is also realized
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 23, 2016, 06:01:19 AM



US close to passing test for June rate rise, Fed official says
Sam Fleming in Washington
21 Mins Ago
Financial Times
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Eric Rosengren, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Sukree Sukplang | Reuters
Eric Rosengren, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
The US is on the verge of meeting most of the economic conditions the Federal Reserve has set to increase interest rates next month, according to a member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Eric Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, told the Financial Times he was getting ready to back tighter monetary policy after financial and economic indicators swung in a positive direction after the Fed’s policy meeting in March.

Until last week markets were putting extremely low odds on a summer rate increase, in part because of the dovish tone of Fed chair Janet Yellen’s last speech two months ago. That picture was transformed on Wednesday, as the Fed minutes from its April rate-setting meeting suggested it was preparing the ground for a second interest rate increase following the quarter point rise in December.

“I want to be sensitive to how the data comes in, but I would say that most of the conditions that were laid out in the minutes, as of right now, seem to be . . . on the verge of broadly being met,” said Mr Rosengren, who has a vote on rates this year as part of the regular rotation of regional Fed presidents on the FOMC.

To justify a move at its next policy meeting in June, the Fed set itself three tests: to see additional signs of a rebound in the economy in the second quarter, further strengthening in the jobs market and for inflation to carry on towards the Fed’s 2 per cent goal. While policymakers are divided over whether these conditions will all be met by next month, Mr Rosengren said he saw the preconditions for a June rise falling into place.

Mr Rosengren was one of the Fed doves last year but has recently become more bullish on the outlook.

His stance chimes with the findings of the latest FT survey of 53 leading economists which found that more than half — 51 per cent — expected the Fed to tighten monetary policy at one of its next two meetings. This was in stark contrast to market views as recently as the start of the month when concern over lacklustre global growth and choppy financial markets seemingly stayed the US central bank’s hand until 2017.

Recently markets have been more buoyant as oil prices rose, the dollar eased and US economic data gained strength.

Analysing the Fed’s three tests for a June move, Mr Rosengren said the central bank had set a “relatively low threshold” for improvement on the growth front given first-quarter gross domestic product expansion was at an annualised rate of just 0.5 per cent. While job growth in April slowed from the roughly 200,000 monthly average in the first quarter, hiring was still “well above” what was needed for a gradual tightening of the labour market, he added.

Mr Rosengren said the US was “making progress on getting to inflation at 2 per cent”, given the higher oil price, the depreciation of the dollar over the past two months, and the firming of the core personal consumption expenditures measure of inflation to a year-on-year rate of 1.6 per cent.

“The reason I am more confident is we are getting better data,” he said.

The June 14-15 meeting of the FOMC takes place just a week before Britain’s referendum on its EU membership, but the vote should not stand in the way of US monetary policy changes unless it triggered a significant bout of market instability, Mr Rosengren said.

“Votes by themselves shouldn’t be a reason for altering monetary policy,” he said. “If we were experiencing significant changes in financial conditions that made us significantly alter the outlook going forward, that would be something that we should take into account.”

Mr Rosengren said demands in previous years for ultra-aggressive monetary stimulus had been vindicated as the US economy is springing forward with “a little more alacrity” than its trading partners. Now the picture is changing, however.

“Because we are closer to full employment and because we are closer to our inflation target I am more confident now that a more normalised situation makes sense,” he said.

More from The Financial Times:

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Week ahead will tell whether markets challenge Fed
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Cramer: Rate hike is overkill—it helps no one

The markets have been burnt by hawkish signalling from the Fed before — which partly explains why traders have been sceptical that the central bank will deliver anywhere near as much tightening as its policymakers' March median forecasts suggested.

Going into last week investors were putting odds of just 4 per cent on a rate rise in June. Then came the Fed's April minutes, and a strong signal that an increase will be an option at the June 14-15 rate-setting meeting.

"The reason they should believe this time is different is that the economic conditions are changing over this period," Mr Rosengren said, referring to the spell since the Fed's March meeting.

Financial markets have improved markedly since March, while the US consumer, which drives two-thirds of growth, has been showing greater verve, he explained. Private sector economists' consumption forecasts for the second quarter were in the range of 3 per cent to 3.5 per cent, which points to broader growth of about 2 per cent, he argued.

"Stock markets globally have improved quite significantly. The data has been coming in better and not only in the United States but in many other parts of the world. Some of the headwinds we thought might be a significant problem as recently as March seem to be a little bit less of a significant problem as we go into June," Mr Rosengren said.

With the fed funds rate still at roughly 35 basis points, "that is pretty low, given we are pretty close to full employment", he said, while cautioning that he was not prejudging economic data that will emerge between now and the June meeting.

Mr Rosengren's arguments for gradual monetary tightening are not confined to the labour market and inflation. He has been outspoken in warning about the possible side-effects from ultra-low interest rates in the property sector.

In Boston, as in many other big cities in the north-east and elsewhere, the main manifestation has been evident in rising commercial real estate prices. One way of reining in excesses in that sector is via regulatory tools, and the Fed last year issued guidance aimed at anchoring prudent lending standards in the industry.

But with non-bank financial institutions such as pension funds emerging as important drivers in the sector, the Fed's supervisory weapons may not go far enough. Mr Rosengren said last November that if trends in the commercial property world continued unabated it could become an argument for a somewhat quicker pace of interest-rate increases by the Fed.

"I think we should continue to ask ourselves are we doing what we need to do to make sure that commercial real estate doesn't grow to a point where it becomes a financial stability concern," he said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 23, 2016, 05:45:44 PM



财经  2016年05月23日
威廉斯:Fed今年適合升息 不受大选影响

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(旧金山23日讯)旧金山联邦准备银行总裁威廉斯表示,美国经济表现足够扎实,適於让今年升息;联储局(Fed)不会因今年是总统大选的政治考虑而按兵不动。

威廉斯在Fox新闻台说,全球经济仍受欧亚经济成长仍受威胁,对美国大致表现不错的经济数据形成「牵制之势」。威廉斯目前不是联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)有表决权的一员。

威廉斯谈到6月或今年是否升息时说:「看我看来,今年接下来开始升息是適宜的。」他认为美国到2017年都不会有陷入衰退的风险,並表示Fed政策不会受政治人物的影响。

「我们已一再证明,总统大选年我们可以行动,採取爭议的决策,以前就是如此。我们接下来也是如此,我们一如眾识是非政治化的,只注重我们的目標。
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 23, 2016, 05:49:34 PM



财经  2016年05月23日
伊尔艾朗:Fed正在鼓吹升息

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(纽约23日讯)安联首席经济顾问伊尔艾朗指出,隨全球债市止涨,联储局(Fed)官员正开始营造升息的气势。

他周日发表推文称,官员「持续鼓吹升息」。

在联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)有表决权的波士顿联邦准备银行总裁罗森格伦接受金融时报访问说,美国已通过6月升息的考试。

他说:「我会留意新公布的数据,但我得说,到目前为止,大致似接近满足会议纪录所列的大部份条件。」


无表决权的旧金山联邦准备银行总裁威廉斯接受福斯新闻台访问时也说,今年升息是適当的,不会受大选影响。

市场迎接Fed最快在6月14日-15日的下一次会议上採取行动之际,推动全球殖利率跌至歷史谷底的债市涨势已经走到尽头。美国银行全球广泛市场指数成份债券的平均殖利率已经攀升到1.35%,脱离5月11日触及的歷史低点1.27%。

富国生命保险驻东京固定收益主管铃木善之说:「Fed已准备好上调政策利率。我认为,他们將在6月或7月採取行动。美国公债殖利率应该会上升。」
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 23, 2016, 08:11:06 PM



Fed's Williams: U.S. Election Won't Stop Rate Hikes
Published May 22, 2016 The Fed  FOXBusiness

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The heated race for the White House won't stop the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year.


In an interview on Fox's Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said "We've proven over and over again that we can act in presidential election years." Williams added, "We are about as apolitical as you can imagine just focused on our goals."

More From FOXBusiness.com...
Dudley: Summer Rate Hike 'Likely,' Expect 2% Growth in 2Q
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S&P 500 Turns Negative For 2016, Rate Hike Penciled In

The remarks from Williams continue a steady stream of Fed speak this month in which multiple FOMC officials have indicted policymakers will hike rates this year.

Members of the Federal Reserve will meet next in a two-day meeting on June 14-15. "In my view it will be appropriate to start raising rates again later this year," said Williams, while noting that policymakers will continue to scrutinize the economic data ahead of the planned meetings.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 24, 2016, 05:54:12 AM



Sunday, May 22, 2016
This Is Not A Drill. This Is The Real Thing.
The June FOMC meeting is live. That message came through loud and clear in the minutes, and was subsequently confirmed by New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley. Last week, via Reuters:

"We are on track to satisfy a lot of the conditions" for a rate increase, Dudley said. He added, though, that a key factor arguing for the Fed biding its time a little was the potential for market turmoil around Britain’s vote in late June about whether to leave the European Union...

..."If I am convinced that my own forecast is sort of on track, then I think a tightening in the summer, the June-July time frame is a reasonable expectation," said Dudley, a permanent voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee.

Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren, the canary in the coal mine that was long ago alerting markets that they were underestimating June, subsequently gave a strong nod to June in his interview with Sam Fleming of the Financial Times:

We are still a month away from the actual meeting. We are going to get another employment rate in early June. We are going to get a second retail sales report. So I want to be sensitive to how the data comes in, but I would say that most of the conditions that were laid out in the minutes as of right now seem to be . . . on the verge of broadly being met...

Clearly, the Fed will be debating a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Will they or won't they? To answer that question, I need to begin with my main takeaways from the minutes:

1.) The Fed broadly agrees that the economic recovery remains intact. Overall there is broad agreement at the Fed that outside of manufacturing (for both domestic and external reasons), economic activity has moderated but remains near or somewhat below their estimates of potential growth and hence is sufficient to drive further improvement in labor markets. The weak first quarter numbers were largely statistical noise attributable to faulty seasonal adjustment mechanisms. Data since the April meeting generally supports this story. The economy is not falling over a cliff, recession is not likely, nothing to see here, folks.

2.) A contingent, however, disagreed with the benign scenario:

 However, some participants were concerned that transitory factors may not fully explain the softness in consumer spending or the broad-based declines in business investment in recent months. They saw a risk that a more persistent slowdown in economic growth might be under way, which could hinder further improvement in labor market conditions.

This group will want fairly strong evidence that the first quarter was an anomaly before the sign off on the next rate hike.

3.) There was broad agreement of the obvious - global and financial market threats waned since the previous meeting. The Fed recognized that their hesitation to hike rates helped firm markets. It's important that they recognize that if the economy weathers a bout of financial market turbulence, it is often with the aid of easier Fed policy. Some Fed speakers appeared not to recognize this relationship earlier this year.

4.) Still, the risks are either balanced or to the downside. Apparently, none of the participants saw risks weighed to the upside.  While some participants believe the threats had lessened sufficiently to justify a balanced outlook:

Several FOMC participants judged that the risks to the economic outlook were now roughly balanced.

the view was not widely shared:

However, many others indicated that they continued to see downside risks to the outlook either because of concerns that the recent slowdown in domestic spending might persist or because of remaining concerns about the global economic and financial outlook. Some participants noted that global financial markets could be sensitive to the upcoming British referendum on membership in the European Union or to unanticipated developments associated with China's management of its exchange rate.

It seems reasonable that this large group will need to see further diminishment of downside risks to justify a hike in June. Brexit doesn't derail a June hike unless it looks to be negatively impacting financial markets.

5.) The question of full employment deeply divides the Fed. Who wins this debate is critical to defining the policy path going forward. One group thinks the economy is not at full employment:

Many participants judged that labor market conditions had reached or were quite close to those consistent with their interpretation of the Committee's objective of maximum employment. Several of them reported that businesses in their Districts had seen a pickup in wages, shortages of workers in selected occupations, or pressures to retain or train workers for hard-to-fill jobs.

But others saw room for further improvement:

Many other participants continued to see scope for reducing labor market slack as labor demand continued to expand.

The Fed's plan had been to let the economy run hot enough for long enough to eliminate underemployment. One sizable camp within the Fed thinks this largely been accomplished. This is the group that is itching for more hikes earlier. This is a place where Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen should have an opinion and be willing to guide on that opinion. In the past, she has sided with the "still underemployment" camp.

6.) The Fed is also split on the inflation outlook but most believe inflation is set to trend toward target. A nontrivial contingent saw downside risks to the inflation outlook due to soft inflation expectations:

Several commented that the stronger labor market still appeared to be exerting little upward pressure on wage or price inflation. Moreover, several continued to see important downside risks to inflation in light of the still-low readings on market-based measures of inflation compensation and the slippage in the past couple of years in some survey measures of expected longer-run inflation.

But the majority were either neutral or dismissive of the signal from expectations:

However, for many other participants, the recent developments provided greater confidence that inflation would rise to 2 percent over the medium term.

7.) June is on the table. I have long warned that market participants were underestimating the odds of a rate hike in June. This came across loud and clear in the minutes:

Participants agreed that their ongoing assessments of the data and other incoming information, as well as the implications for the outlook, would determine the timing and pace of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy. Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.

Consider that the Fed's modus operandi is to delay an expected policy change for two meetings in the face of market turmoil. Hence given calmer financial markets, June could not be so easily dismissed. But it was  not just the financial markets that stayed the Fed's hand. It was also softer Q1 data. As of April, participants had not concluded that they would see what they were looking for to justify a rate hike.

 Participants expressed a range of views about the likelihood that incoming information would make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy at the time of the next meeting. Several participants were concerned that the incoming information might not provide sufficiently clear signals to determine by mid-June whether an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would be warranted. Some participants expressed more confidence that incoming data would prove broadly consistent with economic conditions that would make an increase in the target range in June appropriate.

Moreover, these are participants, not committee members. The actual voters members appeared less committed to June, saying only:

Regarding the possibility of adjustments in the stance of policy at the next meeting, members generally judged it appropriate to leave their policy options open and maintain the flexibility to make this decision based on how the incoming data and developments shaped their outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as their evolving assessments of the balance of risks around that outlook.

Here are my thoughts, assuming of course the data and the financial markets hold up over the next few weeks:

A.) There is a rate hike likely in the near-ish future. There seems to be broad agreement that, at a minimum, the pace of activity remains sufficient to bring the Fed's goals - both maximum employment and price stability - closer into view. Close enough that most voters will soon think another rate hike is appropriate. The doves can't push it off forever.

B.) The Fed will consider June, and there is likely some support among the voting members for a June hike. But ultimately, I think most will want a more complete picture of the second quarter before hiking rates. Also, the contingent that remains less convinced by the inflation outlook will press for more time. Moreover, they will also need broad agreement that the risks to the outlook are at least balanced. It would indeed be silly to plow forward with rate hikes if most members thought the risks were still weighted to the downside, even if the data were broadly consistent with the Fed's forecast. That agreement of balanced risks just might not be there by June. 

C.) Fed doves might, however, need to strike a compromise to hold the line on June and avoid more than one or two dissents. That compromise could be a strong signal about the July meeting via the statement, the press conference, or, most likely, both. A July hike would also serve to end the idea that the Fed can't hike rates without a press conference.

D.) The reason compromise might be necessary is the possibility of a fairly stark divide between voting members. Assume Esther George, Eric Rosengren, and James Bullard will push for a rate hike in June. Furthermore, assume that Lael Brainard opposes a rate hike, and has sufficient leverage to pull Dan Tarullo and William Dudley to her side. Janet Yellen might prefer to negotiate a compromise rather than face the prospect of multiple dissents from either camp.

E.) Of all the divisive points above, I think the most important is the debate over the level of full employment. The ability of the doves to slow the pace of subsequent rate hikes will hinge on their willingness to push for below NAIRU unemployment to alleviate underemployment. If the doves maintain the upper hand, the path of subsequent rate hikes will be very, very shallow. I cannot emphasize enough that this is a debate in which Janet Yellen has the opportunity to take leadership that fundamentally defines her preferred rate path going forward. Does she stick with the bottom dots?

Bottom Line: This is not a drill. This meeting is the real thing - an undoubtedly lively debate that could end with a rate hike. I think we narrowly avoid a rate hike, but at the cost of moving forward the next hike to the  July meeting
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 24, 2016, 07:18:12 AM



"The Fed Is About To Make A Massive Mistake" Saxobank's Jakobsen Warns
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/23/2016 17:00 -0400

Federal Reserve Saxo Bank William Dudley


 
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Steen Jakobsen, chief economist and CIO of Saxo Bank, says the US Federal Reserve is on the verge of making a mistake about its projected rate hikes. The Fed has given itself the option of hiking interest rates at its June meeting; but Jakobsen says he is sceptical about the proposals, arguing that the Fed is taking the recent improvement in US economic data as an uptick in overall momentum. Jakobsen says the economy is still performing significantly below its potential, but thinks the Fed wants to hike interest rates now so it can lower them at a later date.

 

 


 

Surprises are expectations which are not met. CESIUSD is the Citi Economic Surprise Index which measures data surprises relative to market expectations.
 
According to Bloomberg, FOMC vice-Chairman William Dudley said Thursday:
“Data releases that are close to our expectations have little additional impact on the forecast, while data releases that deviate significantly from our expectations can lead to more         significant revisions of the forecast,” adding that "It is, therefore, important for market participants and households to be able to follow the data along with the FOMC and to understand how we are likely to interpret and react to incoming data."
Ok, so actually CESIUSD Index is a perfect measurement of Federal Reserve from here out. The problem?
 
CESIUSD – the Surprise Index is almost perfectly mean-reverting around zero. This is an issue because right now… it’s at a low.. meaning even without doing great, the US economy has a very good chance of improving relative to expectations……!!!!! I.e.: Not to true picture of overall economy but vis-à-vis present situation…..
 
CESIUSD

Source: Bloomberg
 
Bloomberg has its own similar index, the ECSURPUS – it does not look very different.
ECSURPUS

Source: Bloomberg   
 
The “positive” being Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast which has increased. But it often comes down hard as a quarter grows old (look at March drop for Q1).
 
Atlanta Fed GDPnow

Source: Bloomberg
 
Finally, Fed NYnow cast is less “impressive so far..”
Fed NY nowcast

 
Conclusion
 
I still think the Fed is about to make a massive mistake taking mean-reverting improving data as a precursor for net change in overall momentum – while what is really happening is that the US economy is improving from recession-bound growth (and productivity) to less than escape velocity.
 
I firmly believe the Fed’s hawkish tilt will be almost as short as the July/August 2015 announced hike in September 2015.
Fed
 
Fading the Fed is still overall the game, but as above, indicates there is a risk that the Fed will be desperate to continue normalization, making June a likely date for a July hike.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 25, 2016, 02:10:40 PM



USINESS

US Federal Reserve Expected to Increase Interest Rate
Dan Andries | Kristen Thometz | May 24, 2016 5:44 pm
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The financial markets were feeling a bit giddy Tuesday as better-than-expected data show the U.S. economy might be improving faster than anticipated. Among other things, new housing sales shot up in April and the dollar is gaining strength.

These positive signs come on the heels of the recently released minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting in April that show the Fed could raise its benchmark interest rate for the second time in six months at its next meeting in June.

Economist Diane Swonk, founder of DS Economics, thinks there’s more than a 50-percent chance that an interest rate hike will come during the June meeting. The last time the Federal Reserve increased interest rates was in December 2015–and that was by a quarter point.

“What we’re looking at is another quarter point increase,” Swonk said. “The Fed has been waiting patiently to see when they can move again. The important context here is that the Fed is looking to ease up on the gas rather than hit the brakes.”

Meaning, the Federal Reserve feels confident that the conditions are right to raise rates.

“The Fed has a checklist and they’ve sort of met their checklist now,” Swonk said. “The economy looks like it’s reaccelerating after a first quarter lull. It looks like consumers are doing OK, and the housing market in particular is starting to show some signs of real life which is something they want because that has sustainability [and] traction to it.”

Though the economy is improving, the Fed is “still treading as if we’re on thin ice,” she said. “We’re still coming off of a very low base, and the economy still has a lot of healing to do from the Great Recession, particularly individuals regaining ground lost in terms of their living standards.”

Individuals, though, could benefit from a rate hike.

“I think that it’s really important to understand that access to credit cards, access to mortgages—things that were very difficult during the crisis and frankly for many years now—are now starting to pivot,” Swonk said. “Even as rates go up, consumers may find they have more access to credit, it’s only slightly more expensive. On the flip side of it, savers get a little bit more in their saving, although, not much. We’re still talking about extremely low rates.”

Uncertainty in global markets and their reactions to a rate hike could impact the U.S. economy.

“The Federal Reserve, whether they like it or not, they’re the central bank to the world. And many emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, Asia, South Africa—all those economies, they face a lot of external pressure when the Fed starts to raise rates,” Swonk said. “And the fear is that if things got unstable enough abroad, it could come back and haunt us in our own backyard. … We saw an example of that last August when China surprised and imploded, and we saw that effect our financial markets.”

While the Federal Reserve can’t discount the global economy, it must prioritize the U.S., which is why it waited until now for another rate hike. According to Swonk, the Federal Reserve hopes this rate hike will have a very little impact on the U.S. economy.

“The hope is that they’re able to do this because it’s really such a negligible amount that we weather it, and we don’t trigger too many spillover effects [and] that these emerging markets have had time to prepare and whatever’s going to happen abroad is already happening,” she said. “It won’t make it all that much worse, and that our own economy will be able to weather it.”

The discussion continues on “Chicago Tonight.” Joining host Eddie Arruza to talk about the upcoming meeting and anticipated rate hike are Edward Stuart, professor emeritus of economics, Northeastern Illinois University; and Robert Stein, founder of Astor Asset Management.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 25, 2016, 08:02:23 PM



St Louis Fed Pres James Bullard says June rate hike not set in stone, but labor data favorable
Leslie Shaffer   | @LeslieShaffer1
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A U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in June or July wasn't set in stone, but labor data suggested it was time to pull the trigger, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC.

"There's no reason to prejudge June," Bullard said, adding that the Federal Open Markets Committee would look at the data and decide then.

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Muddying the waters on the timing of the move, Bullard noted that there was no reason the Fed must hold a press conference in conjunction with a rate hike. A press conference is scheduled to follow the June 14-15 meeting, but one is not scheduled after the July 26-27 meeting.

"We can wait until we get to the meeting, see what the latest data says, and try to make a good decision there. I think on the issue of press conferences, we have made many moves over the years without press conferences," he said.

Storm on horizon
Strong Treasury auction could be signaling something darker on horizon
"So I think you can make a move without press conferences in this circumstance. I think for that first move, you know the one we did in December, there you probably wanted to have a press conference around that because that was our first move. Whether you have to do that for every single move, I think it is questionable."

For Bullard, labor data was sending a clear signal.

"If you just took your signal from [labor market data], we'd definitely move," he said, noting labor was "at or beyond" full employment, with the number of unemployed persons per job opening lower than during the previous expansion.

"I think we are at or beyond full employment in the U.S., so in the labour market side, that's probably the strongest argument for going ahead and making a move," Bullard said.

But he added that other data were not as strong, with tracking estimates for gross domestic product (GDP) growth this quarter at around 1.6 percent, below the 2 percent trend growth expected.

The Fed kept its target overnight interest rate in a range of 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent at its April meeting, but the meeting's minutes specifically mentioned June as a time when it could hike rates. The Fed hiked rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade.

One thing that, unexpectedly, may not factor in to the Fed's decision-making: The U.S. presidential election.

"The Fed has moved during political cycles in the past," Bullard said, noting that the central bank started a tightening cycle during the 2004 presidential election year.

"Monetary policy is largely independent of the political process. And one of the things I think is you can't win an election by talking about whether the Fed should move right or move left," he said.


Additionally, markets may be fixated on whether the U.K. would vote to leave the European Union (EU), an event dubbed the "Brexit," and if that would throw a speed bump onto the Fed's hiking path, but Bullard said he did not consider it "quite the global financial market event that some are saying," although he noted his view could be "an outlier."

"This is an important strategic decision for the U.K. It's also important for the continent. But the truth is, this is a trade agreement, this is a negotiated situation," he said.

"Even if they decide to get out of the EU, nothing will change on the next day. They will go for two more years. They would open up negotiations. Negotiations would probably drag on even longer than that. So this would be a slow kind of change over many years if they decided to leave."

When it comes to speculation that U.S. monetary policy may follow other major global central banks down the path of negative interest rates, Bullard said he did not consider it likely and was somewhat critical of the concept.

"Negative rates are a tax on the institutions that face short-term interest rates," he said. "When there's a tax, somebody has to pay the tax. So either corporate profits have to fall or they have to raise rates on borrowers or they have to cut rates for depositors.

The Federal Reserve building
Expect 'market dependent' Fed to hike in September: Expert
"But somebody has to pay, one way or another, to pay the tax and none of those things sound very expansionary. I think maybe there are some conceptual problems with negative rates."

Other Fed officials also have prepped markets for a likely interest rate increase sooner rather than later.

New York Fed President William Dudley said last week that the Fed could hike in June or July, and some market commentators have now gravitated to July as the more likely of the two. Market expectations for a June hike jumped on May 18 after the Fed's April minutes were release and have stayed above 30 percent since then, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Expectations for a July hike rose from 38 percent on May 18 to more than 60 percent Monday.

Speaking on Monday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the central bank should hike interest rates at a mid-June policy meeting unless data before then showed the U.S. economy was falling off its positive track.

"If the data comes in and it's not consistent with my view of the strength in the economy, then I would pause. But otherwise I think a June rate increase is appropriate," Harker told reporters.

"But again, it does depend on what that data looks like," he said, citing employment and inflation reports that are expected before the June policy meeting.

—Evelyn Cheng and Patti Domm contributed to this report
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 25, 2016, 08:05:58 PM



Is the Fed Confused? Or is it the Economy, Stupid?
By Victoria Craig  Published May 24, 2016 The Fed  FOXBusiness

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Is the U.S. economy back on solid footing? Has Wall Street recovered from the worst start to a new year ever? Will the Federal Reserve raise rates later this year? Three questions with varied answers that depend on whom you ask give insight into the delicate balance the Fed faces of raising interest rates without upsetting the market’s steady, but arguably fragile, move higher.


Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s April meeting contrast sharply with the statement it issued last month ahead of the two-day policy meeting. And somewhere in between lay comments from various Fed officials who sit at opposite ends of the hawk-dove spectrum, and the odds futures markets place on a rate rise within the next two months.

“Throughout the long path toward monetary policy normalization in the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been more optimistic about the pace of economic recovery than have market participants,” David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial said. “The Fed’s anticipated trajectory of the rise in the fed funds rate has been consistently more aggressive than that of the futures market.”

Joy pointed to earlier this year when the central bank backed off its forecast for four rate hikes in 2016 and told markets it expected just two. But Wall Street hasn’t bought that outlook. Fed Funds futures, a tool that measures the market’s view of the likelihood of changes to U.S. monetary policy, show just a 34% chance of a rate rise next month, a 57% chance of at least one hike in July, and 82% odds by December.

While those numbers are higher than the single-digit odds seen before the April meeting minutes were released last week, it’s been somewhat of an uphill battle for the Fed to adequately convince the market it’s serious when it comes to tightening monetary policy. In the last week, a number of high-level Fed officials have taken a more hawkish tone, including New York Fed President William Dudley who said he expects to see second-quarter economic growth of 2% and sees market concerns from abroad as having mostly abated.

More on the Federal Reserve
What Lies Beyond April's Better-than-Expected Housing Data
Dudley: Summer Rate Hike 'Likely,' Expect 2% Growth in 2Q
Fed Flexes Muscle, June Rate Hike Still in Play
Mixed April Jobs Report Lets Fed Wait on Higher Rates
Economists: First-Quarter Weakness Unlikely to Carry Through in 2016
Joy said this increased focus on the Fed’s updated message to the markets is succeeding, but only to a point.

“Given the still widespread impression that the economic recovery remains fragile, the market is still judging the likelihood of two rate hikes this year to be a longshot,” he said. “Although the Fed is not bound by any preset course, it would seem that for two hikes to be a realistic possibility, the first one would need to happen soon.”

He said a June hike might be too soon, though, given overseas risk including the potential for Britain to leave the European Union, and U.S. economic data only recently beginning to firm.

Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners, said the Fed’s insistence that it will make any decisions on rate hikes based on economic data is an old line that has to go.

“I don’t think they’re primed to hike,” he said. “We can talk about the data being good or bad but the important thing here is that they’re not data dependent. If they were…they would have started raising rates sooner. ..they had their chance on data dependence and they missed it.”

In a Monday research note, Goldman Sachs’ (GS) Global Investment Research Chief Economist Jan Hatz said his team’s confidence in identifying exactly when the Fed will move is low, simply because the central bank’s communication is confusing.

“The FOMC statement on April 27 contained no tangible hint of a move at the next meeting…but then the April 26-27 minutes said that ‘most participants judged that…it would likely be appropriate for the committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.’ Admittedly, this was qualified by a long list of economic conditions,” he wrote.

He also said he sees a 35% probability that the next rate rise will happen in June, the same odds for July, and 20% in September.

“That means we are quite confident that there will be at least one hike over the next two to three meetings, but at the same time, quite unsure about the specific timing of the hike,” Hatz wrote.

In essence, the Fed’s position on the economy remains that it is continuing on the path to recovery. But if one thing’s for sure, the markets will be keenly focused on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks on June 6 in Philadelphia for any last-minute clues as to whether the central bank has enough confidence in both the U.S. economy’s and U.S. markets’ ability to handle tighter policy – amid a slew of risks – sooner rather than later
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 26, 2016, 05:52:31 AM



Fed just amassing ammo for next recession with summer hike: Forester
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
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In preparing the market for a summer interest rate hike, the Federal Reserve is actually girding itself for an economic downturn, Forester Value Fund Portfolio Manager Tom Forester, said Wednesday.

Expectations for a move in June or July have ticked up after minutes from the Fed's April meeting showed policymakers are likely to raise rates in June if the economy improves in the second quarter, labor market conditions improve and inflation remains on track to hit the central bank's 2 percent target.


James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve St. Louis.
Bullard: Don't count on a June Fed hike ... or a press conference
Patrick Harker, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
June interest rate hike appropriate unless data weakens: Fed's Harker
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.
The case for a July interest rate hike

"We actually think the Fed is really just trying to get ammo for the next recession," Forester told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

The Fed had much more room to cut rates during the recessions that followed the dotcom bubble and 2008 financial crisis because the Fed funds rate was significantly higher, he noted.

"Right now, they're what? Twenty-five, 50 basis points? I mean, you've got no room right now if you do start heading into a recession," he said.

Forester, perhaps best known as one of the only fund managers to eke out positive returns in 2008, said current economic data are mixed. Tuesday's new home sales data were strong, but leading indicators like inventories to sales are "awful," and auto inventory to sales are "back at recession levels," he said.

Forester also believes China remains at risk of a hard landing, as exports and imports are currently contributing little to growth.

A young girl gives the victory sign on a healthy and happy themed subway train is seen on March 5, 2015 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province of China.
Reasons to be cheerful about China's trade data: Economist
"China did a trillion dollars of new lending in the first quarter, and that got everybody excited and bumped back up. The dollar went down, so emerging markets did a lot better. But now all that stuff is sort of starting to come off again," he said.

At home, he flagged poor retail store earnings as cause for concern, as well.

"We actually think the market could get soft over the next few months," he said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 26, 2016, 05:53:48 AM



Inflation, Or Why Raise Interest Rates
May 25, 2016 7:33 AM ET
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By David Blitzer

The minutes of the Fed's April 26-27 meeting convinced almost everyone that the Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting in June, but left them wondering why. Most of the subsequent discussion centered on the labor market and how close the economy is to full employment. There was also some whispering about inflation.

The Fed has two sometimes conflicting goals: full employment and low inflation. It defines low inflation as 2%. The definition of full employment is less specific - an unemployment rate in the neighborhood of 4.5-5% seems right. Since 2009, the Fed has moved towards full employment by bringing the unemployment rate down from 10% to 5% currently. It has had less success with inflation, unless you really want price increases of zero to 1% instead of the Fed's 2% target.



Inflation used to be thought of as a monetary phenomenon - the growth rate of the money supply drove the rate of inflation. Despite consistent money growth, inflation remains comatose. The competing inflation theory is a combination of expectations and the Phillips curve. Expectations is the idea that when everyone expects prices to rise, they will push for higher wages and prices; but be satisfied with current wages and prices if they expect stability to continue. The Phillips curve was first suggested in 1958 by A. W. Phillips, a New Zealand economist, who described an inverse relation between inflation and unemployment: when unemployment drops and an economy reaches full employment, inflation tends to rise. While the details of the links among inflation, unemployment and expectations have changed, the links are still there, and the Fed believes that full employment can lead to rising inflation. The FOMC doesn't know how far or fast unemployment can fall before inflation picks up. However, waiting to raise interest rates until inflation is climbing would mean needing to push interest rates up much further and faster. A small step or two in interest rates this year may be prudent risk control
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 26, 2016, 02:19:10 PM



Federal Reserve Accidentally Admits It Is Causing Inequality
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/25/2016 17:56 -0400

Congressional Budget Office Equity Markets Federal Reserve Great Depression Janet Yellen None St Louis Fed St. Louis Fed


 
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Less than a decade ago, the mere hint that the Fed was either propping up markets or actively pushing them higher was enough to get one branded a conspiracy theorist loon and never again invited to polite conversation. Since then first Bernanke, and then virtually all central bankers both domestic and foreign have admitted that the "wealth effect", a polite way of saying pushing up asset prices, has been their primary goal and function.

And yet, despite this admission, the same central bankers would get strangely defensive any time it was suggested that it was they that also were the driving force for global inequality. That was understandable: if the broader public realized that the middle class was in jeopardy and living standards of the vast majority were collapsing as a result of a few career academics with their finger on the print button, those same academics would become an obvious - and very easy - target, when popular anger finally boiled over as it always has in history whenever the income inequality hit record levels.

Which is why we found it quite surprising to read a report by none other than the St. Louis Fed titled "Are Rising Stock Prices Related to Income Inequality?", which if answered in the affirmative would be an accidental admission that the Fed itself has been instrumental in creating the widest wealth and income gap ever seen in US history (now even greater than the Great Depression).

To our great surprise the answer was "yes."

The full note is below. To members of Congress questioning Janet Yellen the next time she is in the house - please ask her how she would rebut research from her own employees that confirms it is the result of the Fed's policies why America has never had a greater chasm between rich and poor.


Are Rising Stock Prices Related to Income Inequality
 
Income inequality in the U.S. started to increase in the 1970s, and stock market gains accompanied this increase, according to a recent Economic Synopses essay.
 
Assistant Vice President and Economist Michael Owyang and Senior Research Associate Hannah Shell noted that increases in stock prices and capital returns may benefit the wealthy more than others, as they have better access to markets. They wrote: “Thus, as stock prices and capital returns increase, the wealthy might benefit more than other individuals earning income from labor.”
 
The figure below shows stock prices (as measured by the S&P 500 Index) along with the Gini coefficient, which represents a measure of income inequality. (A Gini coefficient of 0 means incomes are perfectly equal, and a coefficient of 1 means incomes are perfectly unequal.)
 

 
The authors pointed out that inequality began to rise in the 1970s. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that between 1979 and 2011:
Market income grew an average of 16 percent in the bottom four quintiles.
It grew 56 percent for the 81st through 99th percentiles.
However, it grew 174 percent for the top 1 percent.1
Regarding stock returns, the S&P 500 Index grew from 92 in 1977 to over 1,476 in 2007. By comparison, it grew only 50 percent in the 30 years prior. The authors noted: “As stock prices rise, the gains are disproportionately distributed to the wealthy. Lower- and middle-income families who are also wealth-poor are less likely to expose their savings to the higher risks of equity markets.”
 
Owyang and Shell concluded: “The increase in income inequality in the 1970s was accompanied, in part, by gains in the stock market. Comovement between stock prices and income inequality results from the fact that gains in the stock market tend to benefit those in the wealthiest portion of the income distribution, who have better access to and higher participation in these asset markets.”
Thank you Fed for making yet another conspiracy theory into unconspiratorial fact.

As for what the direct effects of the Fed's disastrous policies are, the following article by the Guardian may provide some insight: "Inequality is destroying all the markers of adulthood, from home ownership to marriage." But at least it leads to all time highs in the "market
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 27, 2016, 06:01:07 AM



POWELL: RATES MAY RISE 'FAIRLY SOON

Jerome20Powell.JPG
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell delivers remarks during a conference at the Brookings Institution in Washington August 3, 2015. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

image
   
By Howard Schneider and Lindsay Dunsmuir
Reuters
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Federal Reserve on Thursday continued to lay the groundwork for an interest rate increase in the next two months, with a senior policymaker saying the economy will likely be ready for such a move "fairly soon."

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, a voting member of the U.S. central bank's rate-setting committee, said in a speech in Washington that he felt the economy was on a "solid footing" and within reach of the Fed's inflation and employment goals.

But he added that the uncertainty surrounding Britain's June 23 referendum on whether to leave the European Union was an argument in favor of the Fed exercising "caution" as it ponders whether to raise rates at its June 14-15 policy meeting.

The Fed will hold another policy meeting on July 26-27.

Powell, however, struck an overall positive tone about the U.S. economy in an appearance at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, becoming the latest Fed policymaker in recent days to say it may be time to notch rates higher.

The Fed's Washington-based Board of Governors has a decisive role in setting monetary policy, and its members have a permanent vote on the committee that sets the central bank's key federal funds rate.

Powell said he felt that data showing continued job creation and evidence of rising wages were a more important signal about the economy's direction than recent weakness in consumer spending and business investment.

"There are good reasons to think that underlying growth is stronger than these recent readings suggest," Powell said. "If incoming data support these expectations, I would see it as appropriate to continue to gradually raise the federal funds rate."

WANING GLOBAL RISKS

Powell spoke a day before a scheduled public appearance by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen's remarks on Friday as well as those in a speech in early June will be closely parsed for clues about the Fed's monetary policy stance going into the June meeting.

After increasing rates in December for the first time in a decade, the Fed has watched tentatively as global markets seesawed and weak growth in China, Japan and Europe threatened to pull the U.S. recovery off track.

But the Fed now regards those risks as "waning," and the minutes from its April policy meeting showed several policymakers keying in on a possible June rate increase.

That has shifted market expectations that had been discounting higher rates until later in the year, with trading in federal funds futures on Thursday implying a 26 percent chance of an increase next month and 56 percent in July.

David Stockton, the Fed's former research director, said on Thursday he felt the only thing holding the central bank back from raising rates in June was the "Brexit" vote.

Though Fed policymakers, including Powell on Thursday, have said they see little broad systemic risk in a British departure from the EU, they still regard it as an international risk at a time when the U.S. economy has been weighed down by poor global demand and a rising dollar.

"Brexit is likely to stay their hand" in June, Stockton said, but "they are on track" for July

- See more at: http://m.swtimes.com/nationworld/powell-rates-may-rise-fairly-soon#sthash.imbDbsSz.dpuf
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 27, 2016, 06:04:06 AM



This may be the tell-tale sign the Fed is about to hike rates
Market fears are being scaled back globally, and it's great news for banks in the U.S. and abroad.
Jon Marino   | @JonMarino
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Bank stocks are saying it's more likely that Federal Reserve officials will decide to increase interest rates in a few weeks.

Over the last two weeks, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo saw stock prices appreciate at an accelerated pace compared to that of the S&P 500. That's even factoring in financials' decline Thursday.

It's making some Fed-watchers think the market is finally ready to see rates rise again. Between reassuring data including retail figures and home sales, economists and analysts are yet again revising predictions about what the Federal Open Market Committee will do, and when.

"It's making markets think the Fed can go sooner," Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joe LaVorgna said. "The likelihood of more than one move has increased."

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
Mary Schwalm | Reuters
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
It comes at a crucial time for Wall Street. Bank CEOs are practically begging FOMC representatives to lift interest rates for only the second time in nearly a decade; analysts and even Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said the company faces difficulty matching targets, raising the prospects of further job cuts if the Fed doesn't follow through with interest rate increases.

Read MoreAssessing Yellen's power to sink the gold rally

There's a lot that has happened since the Fed's April meeting that is likely to change central bankers' minds. The price of oil has rebounded 57 percent from its low point this year. Erik Oja, U.S. banks analyst with S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the rebound could stave off failures of energy companies that have forced Wall Street firms to bolster reserves to offset loan losses.

The year began with most economists expecting at least three, and possibly four, rate hikes for 2016. Market turbulence to kick off 2016 scotched that notion, and the FOMC decided in March and April that it would not hike rates. The prospect of three rate hikes means banks could still benefit on their massive cash balances, which would make them billions of dollars in interest, especially if rates continue to rise.
"We saw that helped in first-quarter earnings," Oja said. The Fed expressing signs of confidence about the U.S. economy via a rate hike bodes well for banks in the long run, he added.

Other indicators seem to support the idea that the FOMC is leaning closer to boosting rates June 15; the U.S. dollar has been rising against other currencies this week, as well. CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks the probability of a rate hike, showed a strong increase in sentiment that the central bank will raise its target rate from the current range of 0.25-0.50 percentage points. As of early Thursday, the probability for a June hike was at 30 percent, a sharp increase from just 4 percent a few weeks ago.
Read MoreTrump says he is "not the enemy" of Fed chair

It has been good news for investors in bank stocks in the European Union as well, where banks' share-price gains have topped that of even Wall Street firms in the last two weeks.

Banks including Barclays and the Royal Bank of Scotland watched shares notch double-digit percentage gains over the month of May. As the probability of a Brexit declines — something expected to be an operational and regulatory headache for banks, were it to pass a vote in the U.K. next month — some bank stocks rose this week by as much as 10 percent or more on the other side of the Atlantic.

"Pulling out [of the U.K.] would cause a lot of operational difficulties for banks," Oja said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 27, 2016, 07:20:34 AM



The Fed Has A Problem: Inflation May Hit 3.5% By December Due To Gas Price "Base Effect"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/26/2016 14:57 -0400

China CPI recovery


 
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One of the officially stated reasons why the Fed delayed hiking rates so far, is because inflation in late 2015 and early 2016 has been lower than the Fed's bogey (as long as one does not look at core inflation, or such critical price levels as asking rents and health insurance). And, based at least on the CPI's basket weighing of headline input prices, the Fed may have been right: the main reason for this is that tumbling energy prices have resulted in a sharp drop in gasoline prices at the pump, one of the primary drivers of Headline CPI.

What is left unsaid is that keeping rates low has been a blessing in disguise for the Fed: following the early 2016 market rout, which was the functional tightening equivalent of three rate hikes, Yellen was happy that inflation was low enough to let her get away without a rate hike so far this year.

However, as we approach the anniversary of last year's oil - and gasoline - price lows and the base-effect goes away, the sharp pick up in gas prices is set to have an even sharper upward impact on Consumer Price Inflation. It will also wreak havoc on the Fed's strategy of playing possum and not hiking as long as inflation remained "stubbornly low" because suddenly inflation will be the highest it has been in years.

In short: the Fed suddenly has a problem. Here's why.

As BofA writes in a note today, the recovery in oil prices this year should lift headline CPI inflation, "confirming the transitory nature of the energy drag." What is startling, however, is that assuming BofA's gas price forecast is right, the bank calculates that its baseline forecast is for CPI to rise to 2.4% by year-end 2016 from the current 1.1% reading. This forecast uses futures prices for wholesale gasoline (RBOB) to estimate future energy prices.

Note that 2.4% CPI inflation in December is BofA's base case, based on an all too realistic gas price of $1.77/gallon retail ($1.41 wholesale). According to BofA's "bull case" in which gasoline returns to its historical price of $2.76/gallon ($2.06 wholesale) would more than triple headline inflation from its current 1.1% level to a whopping 3.5%: this would be a shock to the Fed, to inflation expectations, and to the market. It would also force the Fed to hike rates far faster than the market currently expects.

Here is the math:

Futures wholesale prices are set to inch up from $1.64/gallon to $1.65/gallon in June before ending the year at $1.41/gallon, above the December 2015 level of $1.27/gallon. We sensitize our inflation forecast by defining “bull” and “bear” cases for gasoline prices in addition to our baseline. In particular, we use the highest and lowest observed RBOB price over the last twelve months. This means a bull case of $2.06/gallon and bear case of $1.07/gallon wholesale, by year-end, with the shock gradually building over our forecast horizon. $1.41/gallon wholesale would be $2.11/gallon for retail gasoline, assuming a steady wholesale-retail spread of $0.70 (which covers distribution/marketing and taxes). Our “bull” case would be $2.76/gallon retail and the “bear” case would be $1.77/gallon retail.
The impact of the base-effect is so pronounced, that as BofA notes, an extreme bearish scenario is needed for inflation to stall. A far less extreme scenario is needed for inflation to jump dramatically. To wit:

Our analysis shows that there is a clear uptrend in CPI ahead, under most reasonable scenarios (Chart 1). CPI would accelerate to 3.5% yoy under our bull case, and rise to 1.6% under our bear case. Supportive base effects are a key driver. It is only under an extreme bear case (year-end wholesale gasoline price of $0.88/gallon, or retail at $1.58/gallon), that we would see CPI inflation flatten out at 1.1%, all else equal.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 28, 2016, 05:57:53 AM



Yellen: Rate hike probably appropriate in the coming months
Jacob Pramuk   | @jacobpramuk
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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Friday an interest rate hike is "probably" appropriate in the coming months if economic data improve.

"It's appropriate, and I've said this in the past, I think for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time and probably in the coming months, such a move would be appropriate," she said in response to a question at Harvard's Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study.

Her remarks comes as colleagues on the Fed's policymaking committee have pointed to an increase in the federal funds rate target sooner rather than later. Yellen has expressed caution this year on rates, as inflation lags below the Fed's 2 percent target and global risks persist.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S. May 27, 2016.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S. May 27, 2016.
"The economy is continuing to improve," Yellen said, adding that she sees growth picking up after a sluggish first quarter. Yellen added that oil prices and the dollar are "roughly stabilizing," which would help to push inflation toward the Fed's goal.

The Fed's policymaking committee meets on June 14 and 15. Markets priced in a roughly 28 percent chance of a hike in June and 57 percent in July before Yellen spoke, according to the CME Group. Those chances rose to 34 and 62 percent for June and July, respectively, after her comments.
The Federal Open Market Committee's April meeting minutes released this month showed most policymakers would support a hike in June if economic data improved as expected.


Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Summer rate hike odds pop after Yellen comments
A woman uses her smartphone as she waits in line to checkout at a Target store
US economy picking up steam—beyond the official data
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
This may be the tell-tale sign the Fed is about to hike rates
Jerome Powell, Federal Reserver Governor.
Fed's Powell: Rate hike looking appropriate 'fairly soon'

On Thursday, FOMC voters continued to hint a hike may come in the near future. Fed Governor Jerome Powell said an interest rate hike could be appropriate "fairly soon," adding that he supports gradual increases if data underpin forecasts for an improving economy.

Earlier Thursday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters he believes markets "read the minutes correctly" when they priced a higher chance of a hike.

Yellen on Friday said the Fed needed to avoid raising rates too quickly, as it could cause a slowdown.

"If we were to raise interest rates too steeply and we were to trigger a downturn or contribute to a downturn, we have limited scope for responding, and it is an important reason for caution," she said.
Aside from her comments on rates, Yellen gave a broader assessment of the U.S. economy. She said it has made "a great deal of progress" in the "slow recovery" since the global financial crisis.

Yellen highlighted improvement in the labor market, saying it has nearly reached a point that most economists would associate with full employment. However, she outlined out some areas of weakness, including wage and productivity growth.

One widely followed market watcher did not think Yellen's comments necessarily meant the Fed will hike in June. DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach said Yellen's remark "doesn't suggest" a hike in June, according to Reuters.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 28, 2016, 06:03:21 AM



US economy picking up steam—beyond the official data
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Don't look now, but the American economy is doing better — maybe a lot better — than much of the latest data would suggest.
On Friday, the government bumped up its official tally of the total U.S. output of goods and services in the first three months of this year. The latest estimate pegs GDP growth at 0.8 percent, up from the initial report of just 0.5 percent.

The change reflects fresher data showing stronger spending on homebuilding, increased investment by businesses in building up inventories and a smaller headwind from a global slowdown in trade. Corporate profits also picked up better than the initial accounting last month.

All of which is a reminder that these initial reports, despite the precision included in the data tables, are only best guesses.

The Commerce Department's quarterly GDP report is widely watched as the main barometer of economic growth. But tracking the millions of moving parts in an $18 trillion economy is daunting.

Collecting and analyzing all that data takes time, which is why the official reporting process includes multiple revisions that can take years to complete. (The official GDP print for the first quarter of 2002, for example, wasn't finalized until July 30, 2014.)

That's also why most economists rely on other economic data to gauge the overall health of the economy. Based on those other measures, the latest official GDP report looks like it's understating how well the economy is performing.

For starters, businesses are expanding payrolls at a healthy clip, providing a boost to consumer spending. Many of those paychecks are getting bigger, which also helps fuel growth. That increased spending power has produced a strong rebound in retails sales, according to the latest monthly data.

Fewer workers are losing their jobs, a trend that shows up in separate data tracking the number of people signing up for unemployment benefits. That number has fallen to the lowest level in more than four decades.


Look a little closer in the GDP report and those signs of green shoots are there in the Commerce Department's data release Friday. While the media spotlight shines brightest on the single, "headline" GDP number, our government bean counters, in fact, use two separate measures to track how well the American economy is doing.

Gross Domestic Product measures how much we all spend in any given three-month period; consumers, business, investors, governments, importers, exporters, etc.

But there's another measure called Gross Domestic Income, which tracks how much we all earn from all that spending.

In theory, those two numbers should be the same. But the government tally relies on different data sources, which means that in the short term they usually diverge. Sometimes widely.

In the latest data dump, the GDI measure grew by 2.2 percent versus the 0.8 percent GDP headline number.

The difference, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis website, is the result of " sampling errors, coverage differences, and timing differences with respect to when expenditures and incomes are recorded."

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserver Governor.
Fed's Powell: Rate hike looking appropriate 'fairly soon'
Some economists who rely on the data, though, are left scratching their heads.

"Seeing the gap between GDP and GDI, the statisticians definitely need to take another look at this," Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 30, 2016, 05:57:47 AM



Are interest rates finally about to rise? This is the week we'll find out
If US rates rise, the country that will be most affected – aside from the US itself – is the UK. Here's why
Hamish McRae @TheIndyBusiness 8 hours  ago1 comment
   
   
   
   
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People walk into a meeting of the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve Getty
There will be one bit of information and one meeting that may change things this week. The first will be the job figures from the US on Friday. The second will be the Opec meeting on Thursday.

The first matters because if job creation in the US is strong – if payrolls increase by more than 200,000 – that makes it a near certainty that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in June. The second matters because, in the unlikely event of there being some sort of agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the oil price will climb further in the autumn.

The key thing to understand about the US Fed is that the next rise in rates is only about timing. It will happen at some stage this year. There may actually be several increases this year, and there is a possibility that these rises will come through faster than people expect.



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The country that will be most affected, aside from the US itself, is the UK. That is because the UK is the only other large economy in the developed world with control over its own interest rates that is showing reasonable growth.

Germany has been growing decently, but eurozone interest rates have to be set with regards to the zone as a whole and that precludes any increase. There is a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this Thursday that will hint about loosening policy, not tightening it. Japan is fearing another dip into recession, driven in part by a stronger yen, and monetary policy is stuck.

So the US will not affect Europe or Japan. But it will clear the way for a post-referendum increase in rates in the UK, perhaps in the autumn, if the vote is to Remain.

If that is the case there will be a short-term bounce in confidence and job creation. (If it were to be Leave, then it is very difficult to know what will happen to interest rates, for this undoubtedly would be a shock.)

Number two: Opec. Saudi Arabia is determined to continue to dominate what happens at Opec. It is by far the largest oil producer, producing around 9.5 million barrels of oil a day.


READ MORE
Why France and Italy could be the next European economies to crash
Iran, now free from sanctions, is ramping up production and hopes to reach 4 million barrels of oil a day, making it the second largest Opec producer. Between them, they pump close to a fifth of the world’s oil.

While Opec no longer has the handle on the global oil price, it is still massively important. It is unlikely that there will be any accord between Saudi Arabia and Iran – but anything short of a complete walkout is positive for the oil price, and a higher oil price would, in turn, reduce the risk of deflation in Europe and Japan.

Two other straightforward things to look for this week, and a more offbeat one. The two obvious ones are the ECB meeting and UK house prices from the Nationwide. What the ECB does (probably very little) will be more interesting than what it thinks. Is Europe really heading back into another downturn, after a decent first quarter? Is Greece really settled? Are there other dangers?

As for UK house prices, the key is whether there is any evidence that the referendum is changing things. At the top end there is stagnation, but the middle and bottom are driving on. House prices are not really a Brexit issue – or, at least, they should not be – but there will be efforts by both sides to make them so.


READ MORE
Will Brexit help or damage British businesses?
Finally something different: Tesla has its annual shareholders meeting on Tuesday in California. This will help focus attention on the transformation taking place in the US on the role electronics and the automotive industry.

One third of all new mobile phone connections in the US are cars. Tesla is accumulating huge amounts of data about how its cars perform, including how they perform when being driven automatically. For example, when on automatic control they hold the centre of a lane much more closely than they do when being driven by a human. 

The automatic industry now realises that this is not just about electric cars; it is about the way all cars are being used – the early stages of seismic change for the entire industry
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on May 30, 2016, 08:12:17 PM



Fed's Bullard says global markets seem well-prepared for summer rate hike
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St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday global markets appear to be "well-prepared" for a summer interest rate hike from the Fed, although he did not specify a date for the policy move.

"My sense is that markets are well-prepared for a possible rate increase globally, and that this is not too surprising given our liftoff from December and the policy of the committee which has been to try to normalise rates slowly and gradually over time," Bullard told a news conference after speaking at an academic conference in Seoul.

"So my ideal is that if all goes well this will come off very smoothly."


James Bullard, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
David Orrell | CNBC
James Bullard, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Bullard added a rebound in U.S. GDP growth seems to be materialising in the second quarter, but reserved his opinion on whether the Fed should hike in June or July for the next policy meeting at the U.S. central bank.

His comments followed revised data on Friday that showed first quarter growth in the U.S. was not as weak as initially expected.

Responding to the GDP data, economists said strong income growth, together with signs the economy was picking up steam in the second quarter, could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates as early as next month.

Answering a question on whether he thought U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump would bring change to monetary policy if elected, Bullard said the Fed was independent and did not follow any particular political prescription.

Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Summer rate hike odds pop after Yellen comments
"I don't think a change in the White House either way will affect Fed policy," he said. "My hope is that neither campaign is interested in politicising the Fed."

Meanwhile, Bullard noted he had been critical of the Fed's "dot plot" summaries of policymakers rate outlooks recently, saying they may be giving too much forward guidance, removing the Fed's ability to make data-dependent decisions.

The dollar rallied against Asian currencies early on Monday after the revised GDP data and on Fed Chair Janet Yellen's comments on Friday that a rate hike in the U.S. in coming months would be appropriate.

The Korean won extended losses after Bullard's comments, trading down 0.9 percent against the dollar as of 0142 GMT.

The Fed most recently raised interest rates in December last year, which was the first rate hike in nearly a decade
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 02, 2016, 02:19:43 PM



升息烈日太刺眼!今夏美股恐遭灼傷,重挫15%
回應(0) 人氣(467) 收藏(0) 2016/06/02 10:41
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-02 10:41:44 記者 陳苓 報導
升息來了,股市慘了?美銀美林指出,聯準會(FED)升息機率提高,今年夏天美股恐怕會失控下墜,或許將大跌15%。
MarketWatch 1日報導,美銀美林證券暨量化策略師Savita Subramanian警告,今夏標普500指數最多將慘跌15%。由當前數字推算,這表示標普500會跌至1,780點,為將近16個月新低。Subramanian接受CNBC訪問表示,2011年起她一直對股市深具信心,今年是她首次轉空。她說,股市尚未完全反應出FED夏季升息的可能,情況令人憂心。
Subramanian悲觀的另一個理由是,去年12月FED首度升息,接下來拖了好幾個月都沒動作,兩次升息時間離得太遠,通常不是好兆頭。該行回顧歷史,發現FED第一次升息之後,要是隔了一兩季才再次動手,股市報酬往往會呈現負值。

另外,油價可能出現W型復甦,今年油價與股價連動性高,恐不利股市。再來,華爾街對股市信心連續兩個月下滑,跌至15個月新低。與此同時,還有美國總統大選和英國脫歐公投的不確定性,都可能拖累夏季股價。
1日標準普爾500指數上漲0.11%(2.37點)、收2,099.33點,創4月20日以來收盤新高。
美國投資界有一句諺語,叫做「Sell in may and go away (5月賣、快走開)」,「金融巨鱷」索羅斯(George Soros)已事先在今年第1季(1-3月)將美股減碼37%、另外還加倍放空標準普爾500指數ETF,投資銀行如美銀美林、高盛與J.P.摩根也一致認為,全球股市夏季不妙,建議大家趕緊出脫持股。
MarketWatch 5月16日報導,Subramanian說,自1971年以來,Fed只有三次曾在企業獲利衰退時升息,分別是1976年、1983年與1986年,其中兩次美股都在接下來12個月走軟。FactSet調查顯示,美國企業Q1的每股盈餘較去年同期下滑7.1%,已連續第4季呈現萎縮


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 03, 2016, 05:57:01 PM



Timing of rate hike 'not really that critical': Fed's Evans
Reporting by Geoff Cutmore, writing by Anmar Frangoul
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There could be two rate hikes in 2016 if data continue to be favorable but the timing of both won't prove to be crucial, Charles Evans, the Chicago Federal Reserve president, told CNBC on Thursday.
"Two rate hikes in 2016, that's my own call for that, if the data continue to be in line with my outlook, that's a slow and gradual increase this year," said Evans, who is an alternate member of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and votes on decisions when a full-time committee member is unable to.

"Timing's not really that important, you mentioned possibly two summer hikes, that would be a little bit more than I'd say is … priced in to the dots certainly and the market expectations," Evans added in an interview aired on Friday.

"Timing's not really that critical for my viewpoint, as long as by the end of this year we're at just a little under 1 percent," Evans added.

"I think that's given us enough time to … assess how the U.S. economy has gone, the global influences and whether or not inflation is more likely to pick up in a confident fashion towards 2 percent. That would position us well for the next year," he said.

Market participants are eagerly anticipating the next rate hike from the central bank after it approved a quarter-point increase in its target funds rate back in December. This was the first move by the bank after seven years of accommodative monetary policy in U.S. history, following the financial crash of 2008.

Investors have had to rethink their expectations for the next move with a slew of Fed speakers recently talking up the prospect of a move this summer. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last that Friday an interest rate hike is "probably" appropriate in the coming months if economic data improve .

"It's appropriate, and I've said this in the past, I think for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time and probably in the coming months, such a move would be appropriate," she said in response to a question at Harvard's Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study.

The CME Group FedWatch probability for a June rate hike rose after Yellen's speech on Friday and is now highlighting a 21 percent chance of a move at the Fed's June 15 meeting.

'Just need to do our job'



Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve
Summer rate hike odds pop after Yellen comments
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Studies at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, U.S. May 27, 2016.
Yellen: Rate hike probably appropriate in the coming months

When asked about rate moves later this year, with U.S. elections due in November and the danger of the bank being drawn into a political debate, he said there had been previous times when the bank had needed to raise rates during an election cycle.

"Back in 2004 during the presidential election season, we started raising the funds rate which was 1 percent in June of 2004 and we started increasing rates by 25 basis points - what we didn't know at the time - each and every meeting for the next seventeen times. We went through the presidential election cycle doing that," he told CNBC.

"It was slow, it was gradual – although it was faster than what we are contemplating right now – and it was appropriate because interest rates had been low for very long and the economy was doing better."

He added that if the central bank moved later this year it would be a "natural policy response to the economy" and would only be what is expected of the bank.

"That's one reason why we need to have some measure of independence from short-run political concerns and we just need to do our job," he said.

'A very critical decision'

Charles Evans, president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Melody Hahm | CNBC
Charles Evans, president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Meanwhile, Evans gave his views on the U.K.'s upcoming referendum of its EU membership, with Brits set to go to the polls on June 23. When asked whether a so-called "Brexit" vote would have any bearing on a rate move in June, he said it would have important ramifications for the country.
"I'm not an expert, and I think that it's a very critical decision," Evans said.

"I'm not sure it plays an important role in our policy making beyond us just monitoring the U.S. data and general global financial conditions and having confidence that things are still on a good track," he later added.

Investors in the U.K. received a sharp reality check this week after a new poll on the upcoming referendum highlighted that the vote might just be closer than many people were thinking. Two polls on Tuesday from U.K. newspaper The Guardian and public opinion researcher ICM suggested voters were split 52 percent - 48 percent in favor of the country leaving the European Union, a so-called "Brexit".

Outlook on the US economy


Richard Kovacevich
June rate hike would give Fed option for 3 increases this year: Kovacevich
Daniel Tarullo
Fed's Tarullo says Brexit is factor in rate decision: Report

Speaking on Friday morning at a central banking event in London, Evans also gave his outlook on the U.S. economy, anticipating U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to grow in the range of 2 to 2-1/2 percent over the remainder of this year.

"After the sluggish first-quarter annualized growth rate of 0.8 percent is accounted for, this would leave the increase in GDP for 2016 as a whole close to 2 percent — or about the same pace as in 2015," he said, according to a transcript of his speech.

He added that the U.S. consumer is the "linchpin" behind his relatively optimistic outlook, but iterated that there were several factors weighing on economic activity in the U.S.

"The slowdown in global economic growth — notably in emerging market economies — and uncertainty about international prospects have contributed to a rising dollar and declining commodity prices since mid-2014," he said.

"The trade-weighted dollar has appreciated about 20 percent since June 2014, while oil prices are down more than 50 percent over the same period. U.S. firms that sell their products in global markets and those exposed to commodity markets have felt the brunt of these relative price movements."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 04, 2016, 05:11:20 AM



Sharp Fall in U.S. Hiring Saps Chance of Fed Rate Increase in June

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By PATRICIA COHEN and BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
JUNE 3, 2016
The government reported on Friday that employers added just 38,000 workers in May, a troubling sign that the economic recovery may have stalled, at least temporarily, and a sharp slowdown in hiring that is expected to push back a decision by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Despite the anemic job gains, the official unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey of households, fell to its lowest point in nearly a decade, 4.7 percent from 5 percent in April. But the decline was primarily a result of Americans dropping out of the labor force rather than finding new jobs.

“Boy, this is ugly,” said Diane Swonk, an independent economist in Chicago. “The losses were deeper and more broad-based than we expected, and with the downward revision to previous months, it puts the Fed back on pause.”

“The only good news is that wages held,” Ms. Swonk said. Average hourly earnings were up again, 0.2 percent for the month, for a gain of 2.5 percent for the year, continuing to rise at a faster pace than in recent years.

The weakness in May’s job totals were somewhat exaggerated because they reflected the Labor Department classification of more than 35,000 striking Verizon workers as unemployed. With those employees now back on the job, the missing strikers should be added back in next month’s report.


While Friday’s report is only a snapshot of the economy and the jobs engine could rev up again, it has sputtered this spring, with the Labor Department shrinking its estimate of March and April’s employment totals by 59,000 since the initial reports. The average monthly gain for the last three months was just 116,000 jobs.

While subject to further revision as well, May’s figures were the lowest monthly growth since September 2010.

Worries about the economy are a common refrain among supporters of Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, as well as among those who are backing Senator Bernie Sanders’s faltering bid to lead the Democratic presidential ticket. Historically, the state of the American economy about six months in advance of the November election has played an outsize role in determining how people vote for president.

Even apart from the distortion created by the Verizon strike, the average monthly job gains so far in 2016 have fallen far shy of the nearly 240,000 average of the last two years, a pace that has helped buoy the economy and cut the jobless figure in half since the depths of the recession.

The Fed’s policy-making committee has its next three meetings scheduled for mid-June, late July and September.

Lael Brainard, a Fed governor and an ally of Ms. Yellen’s, described the May report as “sobering” in a speech on Friday afternoon.

Ms. Brainard said the weak job growth was a reminder that the strength of the recovery should not be taken for granted, and said she did not see clear evidence the economy had rebounded from a weak winter.


A construction site in Orlando, Fla. The average monthly job gains so far in 2016 have fallen far shy of the nearly 240,000 average of the last two years,
LOREN ELLIOTT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES
“Recent economic developments have been mixed, and important downside risks remain,” Ms. Brainard, who has pushed for the Fed to move slowly in raising interest rates, said at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. “In this environment, prudent risk management implies there is a benefit to waiting for additional data.”

Aside from the sluggish job creation, the labor force participation rate declined for the second month in a row, to 62.6 percent, and the number of people working part time for economic reasons rose sharply.

Investors wrote off the chances of a June rate increase after the latest release. The probability of a June increase, as implied by asset prices, fell from 21 percent to 6 percent in early trading, according to CME Group. The probability of a rate rise by September fell from about two-thirds, but remained at roughly 50/50 either way.

With the summer stretching ahead, the sentiment on Wall Street could perhaps be best summed up by the Tempos’ 1959 hit, “See You in September.”

Still, unless there are further signs of fresh economic weakness, most economists expect at least one rate increase before the end of the year. The unemployment rate, which the Fed regards as a key indicator, has finally dropped to where it was before the Great Recession began in late 2007
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 04, 2016, 05:14:21 AM



Fed likely to avoid rate hike before Britain votes on leaving EU
June 3, 2016
Janet-YellenWASHINGTON: The US Federal Reserve may be forced to delay a rate hike at its June meeting because of mounting concern over the economic fallout from Britain’s vote on whether to leave the European Union.
The geopolitical risk likely will push any rate increase until at least July, despite apparent consensus among Fed officials that a hike is warranted by stronger US growth and tight labor markets.
The Fed’s June 14-15 rate-setting meeting comes just a week before the British vote on June 23. A “leave” vote is expected to roil financial markets, cause credit spreads to widen, trigger a rush into safe assets and bolster the dollar.
The dollar’s recent stability is one reason the Fed has become more comfortable with raising rates, and officials may want to let the threat of Brexit pass before moving to tighten financial conditions.
Fed Board Governor Daniel Tarullo on Thursday joined the chorus of those warning of his concerns over the British vote, telling Bloomberg that Brexit would be a “factor” he would consider at the Fed’s June policy meeting and said that the British vote’s impact on markets would be key.
The most recent poll found that voters in Britain – Europe’s second biggest economy and its most influential financial center – were evenly split on whether to stay in the EU or to leave.
By the time the Fed meets on June 14 and 15, at least four of the five Washington-based governors will have aired their views on the outlook for rates, with Lael Brainard due to speak Friday and Chair Janet Yellen appearing in Philadelphia next week.
Fed officials will release their latest economic projections at the June meeting along with a policy statement, and Yellen is scheduled to hold a post-meeting news conference.
The two governors who have addressed the Brexit vote so far have sounded notes of caution.
“I do see the possibility of a real hit to economic growth both in the UK and the EU,” Fed Board Governor Jerome Powell said last week. “I can imagine the upcoming Brexit vote as presenting a factor in favor of caution about raising rates.”
Secret meetings across Europe reveal uncertainty over what would follow a vote that British Prime Minister David Cameron calls a “leap in the dark” – and also concern about what happens if Britain stays in.
If Britain remains in the EU, it could lead to continued infighting in the ruling Conservative party and destabilizing battles with the rest of the EU.

Waiting on the Brexit vote is a “no-brainer,” said Jon Faust, a former Fed staffer and now a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University. “Why move now as opposed to a few weeks from now?”
Consensus on caution
With few exceptions, the message from regional Fed bank presidents has been consistent: the upcoming Brexit vote may tip the scales against a June increase.
This is only the latest obstacle to the Fed’s two-year struggle to normalize US monetary policy after dropping rates dramatically during a protracted downturn.
In 2014, the crash in oil prices and a rapid spike in the value of the dollar crushed US exports and drove inflation into a ditch.
Last year, a surprise slowdown in China’s economy, alongside the malaise in Europe and Japan, sparked global market turbulence and broader concerns about a worldwide recession. That vexing landscape kept the Fed on hold until December.
Now, Brexit aside, the prospect of a rate hike soon appears all but certain. Unemployment dropped to 5 percent in April; inflation appears to be gaining traction as the drag from cheap oil and a strong dollar fades; and the lull in growth over the past few months has proved temporary, with consumer spending and the housing market showing particular strength.
The probability of a June rate increase is now about 17 percent, according to Fed funds futures trading data compiled by the CME Group, compared to 57 percent for July.
While the impact of a vote to leave the EU is uncertain, one widely expected and immediate result is likely to be a jump in the value of the dollar – a further blow to US exporters and another drag on inflation that the Fed still considers too low.
July over June
If the Fed does indeed take a pass at its June meeting, officials have signaled they’ll be ready to move in July.
Minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting showed officials preparing the ground for higher rates sometime in the summer months. After July, the next option would be September, in the middle of a US election campaign, in which the Fed and Yellen could well become targets of debate.
Four of the Federal Reserve’s 12 regional bank presidents have asked to raise the interest rate charged to commercial banks for short-term loans – a proxy for saying the target rate should move higher.
If the board defers a rate hike at its June meeting, Yellen will face a rhetorical challenge in explaining why global factors are again trumping domestic economic data – when Fed officials have tried to convince the public that their decisions are “data dependent.”
One approach she could take, economists said, is to flag the Fed officials’ agreement in favor of gradual rate rises over the next couple of years, but to emphasize that low inflation means there is no urgent need to start raising rates right away, especially ahead of such a one-time and potentially critical world event.
“Even if Brexit were seen to be an unlikely outcome, we think this extremely cautious Fed Chair might see relatively little cost to waiting another seven weeks to act,” RBS economists Michelle Girard and Kevin Cummins said in a note.
– Reuters
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 04, 2016, 08:13:35 AM



This may bring on new handwringing about the economy
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
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May's weak jobs report raises the anxiety level in markets and may have sidelined some investors as they sort through what signals the economy is really sending.

The worst jobs report in more than five years may also have dashed some traders' hopes that stocks can break out to new highs in the near future. Focus could now swing to whether the market can hold its recent range, and every piece of economic data will be important. In the week ahead, there is a relatively light data calendar including productivity and costs Tuesday and the JOLTs report on job openings and turnover on Wednesday.

The big event of the week comes Monday when Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks in Philadelphia on the economy at midday.

economy pedestrians after hours look ahead
Jon Jones | Reuters
Prior to Friday's report of just 38,000 nonfarm payrolls, the expectations had been for a slightly hawkish-sounding Yellen to guide markets toward a summer rate hike. But now economists are wondering whether Yellen will veer to the dovish side and repeat that the Fed's decision depends on the strength of the data while playing down her previous comment that the Fed could raise rates in the next couple of months.

"She can't help but express concern. She, of all people, will not dismiss this. She has also as recently as last Friday talked about ongoing labor slack," said David Ader, chief Treasury strategist at CRT Capital.

Economists had expected 164,000 nonfarm payrolls and had expected some weakness in the number because of the inclusion of 35,000 striking Verizon workers. But the number defied all expectations and was nearly 100,000 below the most pessimistic forecasts.

Workers assemble line for automobiles
This force may explain the awful jobs report: Ex-Obama aide
"It gives Yellen a much more difficult task Monday. People will be expecting her to walk back the tone that the Fed has put out in the last couple of weeks. In trying to do that, it's literally a tightrope act because if she doesn't walk the tone back enough people are going to be uncomfortable with the fact that they could hike at a rate quicker than what the market expects it to be," said Julian Emanuel, equity and derivatives strategist at UBS. "If you walk the tone back too much, it sounds like you're totally panicking."
Fed funds futures Friday priced out a rate hike for this year, and odds for a July hike moved closer to a 30 percent chance while June fell to single digits.

"There's no other data that's available that would suggest job growth has slowed, certainly to the degree this number would suggest. You can't dismiss it. It's an important report, but there are times when the data, for whatever reason, are not representative of the reality of what's going on," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

Job seekers wait in line in to fill out a job application
Wait: The US may have actually LOST jobs in May
For the Fed to move on rates in the next couple of months, the economic data will now have to outperform. "People are going to be worried about the slowing pace of employment and about this data," said John Briggs, head of strategy at RBS. "It's not a good day for the economy. The market's now pricing [that] the burden of proof is going to be that they need strong data to convince them to go, just as coming into the [jobs] number, you needed weak data to convince them they weren't going to go, and now you've got that."

Stocks initially traded lower on the jobs report and yields fell sharply. Stocks, however, recovered much of their losses on the day Friday and were mixed on the week. The S&P 500 ended the week above the key 2,100 level, at 2,103, down six points Friday. The S&P was virtually unchanged on the week, while the Dow was off 0.4 percent for the week at 17,807.

Treasury yields moved lower across the curve after the jobs data Friday. The two-year was at 0.77 percent late in the day, as traders bet against a Fed rate hike. The bond market also drew buyers seeking safety, and the 10-year yield fell to 1.69 percent.

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Although Fed officials have recently focused on June for the next rate hike, many economists believed the Fed would wait until at least July because of the June 23 U.K. vote on whether to remain in the European Union. If the voters choose to exit the EU, or Brexit, strategists expect the uncertainty to create market volatility.

"We are in a liquidity vacuum between now and June 23. Literally, I don't know any other way to say it. Trading volumes have been shrinking for weeks, and before this [U.K. vote] event that's very well-known and dwelled on for months and months. The uncertainty of [the May jobs] report gives investors even less incentive to trade. Having tested the upper end of the range, it's not likely we're going to break out of that range any time soon," said Emanuel. However, Emanuel still expects to see the markets make new highs in the second half of the year.

Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said traders will now watch support levels to see if the market can stay in its range or break out.

Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve.
Fed, again, left with egg on its face as recovery falters
"Instead of breaking out, we [will] probably fall back in the range a little. Next week, I'll be coming in to see if the S&P can hold above 2,088 for a session or so, and if it still can't pull back, then perhaps the market will make another attempt using the Brexit as a catalyst," he said.

Financial stocks were down 1.4 percent Friday, and utilities were up 1.7 percent, as traders reacted to the idea that the Fed would hold off on rate hikes.

"The market was set up for the next explosive move," he said. "You had strength in the banks. You had the biotechs bounce back for the last week and a half. … Technology was in the game. There were a lot of pieces of the puzzle for the S&P to make a move. … Then you had this horrendous report. No matter how you sugarcoat it, it was weak."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 04, 2016, 08:32:42 AM



Fed’s Brainard calls for ‘waiting’ as labor market has slowed

By Steve Goldstein
Published: June 3, 2016 12:48 p.m. ET

     54 
Central bank official not in a rush to lift interest rates
Bloomberg
Lael Brainard, governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard on Friday called for the central bank to wait for more data before lifting interest rates as she said the jobs report shows the labor market has slowed.

Brainard, who’s the first Fed official to speak since the Labor Department reported just 38,000 jobs were added in May, said the central bank should wait for more data on how the economy is performing in the second quarter, as well as a key vote by Britain on whether to leave the European Union.

“Recognizing the data we have on hand for the second quarter is quite mixed and still limited, and there is important near-term uncertainty, there would appear to be an advantage to waiting until developments provide greater confidence,” Brainard said at the Council on Foreign Relations.

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She said she wanted to have a greater confidence in domestic activity, and specifically mentioned the uncertainty around the Brexit vote, as reasons to pause at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which is due to end June 15.

Also read: June’s out for a Fed rate hike and July’s on life support

Financial markets have largely come to the conclusion, pricing in just a 4% chance of a June interest-rate hike.

Brainard, who has been advocating a slow pace of lifting interest rates since joining the central bank, didn’t sound impressed with the labor market.

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“The data in today’s labor market report on balance suggest that the labor market has slowed,” she said. “Nonfarm payroll employment increased at an average monthly pace of 116,000 over the last three months--well below the 220,000 per month average pace over the preceding twelve months.”

While the unemployment rate moved to a new low for the current recovery, Brainard pointed out involuntary part-time employment increased and the labor force participation rate declined.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is set to give her views on the economy and monetary policy on Monday in a speech in Philadelphia. Yellen last week said she anticipated lifting interest rates in the coming months
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 04, 2016, 08:44:34 AM




Alan Greenspan is Against Inflation... Again
Geoffrey Pike
Photo   By Geoffrey Pike
Written Friday, June 3, 2016
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was against inflation before he was for it. Now that he is long retired, he seems to be against it again.

Greenspan headed up the Federal Reserve for over 18 years, from 1987 to early 2006. But Greenspan’s history goes a lot further back than the Reagan era.

In 1966, Greenspan wrote an essay called “Gold and Economic Freedom,” published in Ayn Rand’s book Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal. Greenspan laid out the case for economic freedom and linked it with the use of gold as money.

Greenspan wrote: “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation though inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold.”

This is one of the best short essays I have seen on the subject. He understood that productivity and living standards are highly correlated with a stable and reliable form of money. Gold served as money, as chosen by the marketplace, for thousands of years. Central banking and fiat currencies are a recent invention when taken in the context of history.

There is no question that Greenspan is an intelligent man who understands the workings of a free market. He obviously also understands the monetary system well.

This is also the reason I despise Greenspan in so many ways. He is a complete sellout.

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Greenspan the Inflationist

Greenspan, despite his previous affection for gold as money, went on to accept the position of Federal Reserve chair. If he had used his position as a platform to end the Federal Reserve and return the process of setting interest rates to the marketplace, then there wouldn’t be a problem.

Even if Greenspan had just used his time as Fed chair to implement a relatively stable money supply without heavy manipulation of the interest rates, then we might still be able to give him a pass.

The problem is that Greenspan got into office and was quickly confronted with Black Monday on October 19, 1987, which resulted in a drop of the Dow of more than 22%. Greenspan quickly sprung into action with monetary stimulus.

Greenspan never went crazy with monetary inflation, as was the case from 2008 to 2014 when the Fed quintupled the adjusted monetary base. But over this time period (mostly with Bernanke as Fed chair), much of the new money went into excess reserves at the banks, thus limiting actual price inflation.

Greenspan was subtler, but there was inflation nonetheless. The monetary base more than tripled on his watch, but this was over a period of 18 years. That’s still bad.

He helped blow up the tech bubble in the 1990s. After September 11, 2001, and a downturn in the economy, Greenspan quickly provided the stimulus to cover over the minor recession. Instead of letting the correction happen, he lowered interest rates via the federal funds rate and increased the money supply. This then led to the housing bubble.

The housing bubble did not implode on Greenspan’s watch, but it was the Fed policies during Greenspan’s time that helped blow up this bubble. There were certainly other factors with the government-sponsored enterprises and the government’s encouragement of loose lending, but the housing bubble never could have blown up the way it did without the easy money and low interest rates provided by the Fed.

So while Greenspan is very bright, this is the very reason he is so bad. He knew better, but he played the game of the insiders. He acted as a stooge for the left to claim that his free market policies just weren’t working, while his policies were not at all reflective of the free market.

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Disaster Ahead

Greenspan is now 90 years old, but he is still making appearances. He was recently interviewed on Fox Business by Neil Cavuto.

Greenspan said, “What the markets are beginning to show us is an acceleration in money supply for the first time in a very long time.”

He must not be referring to the base money controlled by the Fed because the Fed has had a tight monetary policy since the end of 2014. Janet Yellen has surprisingly kept a tight stance, despite not raising interest rates as much or as fast as expected. Still, we should not doubt that Yellen would quickly revert to a loose monetary policy if “needed” by the economy.

Greenspan also said that we have a global problem of a shortage in productivity growth. He is correct on this point, but unfortunately he doesn’t point his finger to the main culprit, which is the previous loose policy of the Fed.

He also said we should be running federal surpluses right now and not deficits. Again, he is correct on this point, but it is the Fed that has enabled these deficits to a large degree. If the Fed were not a ready buyer of U.S. Treasuries, then there probably wouldn’t be so much confidence for investors to pile into Treasuries at low rates.  And it is the previous policies of the Fed that have enabled such a long period of ultra-low interest rates.

Greenspan also said that entitlements are the biggest issue facing the U.S. economy. And again, there isn’t a lot to disagree with here. But also again, it has been the Fed that has enabled the federal debt to be run up the way it has. You don’t see state and local governments run up these levels of debt as a percentage of spending. They can’t do it because they can’t create money out of thin air. If they get too far in debt, they face actual bankruptcy.

At the federal level, the politicians and bureaucrats spend money with few limits. They don’t have to worry about debts because the Fed can always just buy it up with newly created money.

In the interview, Greenspan said entitlement spending is crowding out savings and capital investment. He says that capital investment is the critical issue in productivity growth and that productivity growth is the critical issue for economic growth.

In other words, Greenspan likes to return to his free market roots every now and then with his talking points. Because again, he is absolutely right in what he is saying, which is why it is so frustrating.

Savings and capital investment are the main components for economic growth. But it is government spending and the Federal Reserve that discourage savings. What does Greenspan think the Fed was doing under his watch for 18 years? It is hard to call money pouring into tech stocks, and later housing, capital investment. For capital investment to increase living standards, it has to be investment into things that are sustainable and will meet consumer demand. With the Greenspan bubbles, these were cases of resources being misallocated, which stunt economic growth in the long run.

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Heeding the Warnings

If Greenspan had put on a mask for the interview and called himself by another name, then somebody with an understanding of economics watching him would say he is making perfect sense. The problem is that Greenspan’s comments, when analyzed properly, are a complete repudiation of what he did for 18 years as Fed chair. He needs to take a look in the mirror.

It is not uncommon for politicians and government officials to speak in a different tone once they are out of office. Maybe Obama will start talking about what a mess our health insurance system is once he is out of office.

The major problem with Greenspan is that he generally advocates more free market policies, but he completely sold out when he was with the Fed.

Still, his warnings should not be taken lightly. He is right that there is a major train wreck ahead with regards to entitlements. The federal government is running massive deficits right now during a so-called recovery. How bad will the deficits be if we fall back into recession?

The Fed will continue to resort to digital money printing when it is called upon to do so. If gold were money, this would not be possible, as you can’t create gold on a printing press or a computer screen.

Greenspan was right over five decades ago when he linked gold with economic freedom. For the sake of your own economic freedom, it is a good idea to own some.

Until next time,

Geoffrey Pike for Wealth Daily
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 05, 2016, 07:49:26 AM



分析:就業差‧經濟弱‧英脫歐‧美國最快9月升息
2016-06-04 18:23     

(美國‧紐約4日訊)美國新增就業人口創近6年來最低,5月服務業景氣擴張速度也是2014年來最慢,加上英國脫歐風險升溫,幾乎一筆勾銷聯儲局6月升息的可能,但也引發成長趨緩疑慮,以致全球金融市場劇烈震盪。

分析師普遍認為,7月升息機會也大減,聯儲局最快9月才會考慮調整利率。(圖:法新社)
分析師普遍認為,7月升息機會也大減,聯儲局最快9月才會考慮調整利率。
美國勞工部數據顯示,5月新增就業人口只有3萬8千人,為2010年9月以來最少,比經濟學家最悲觀預測的9萬人還差;4月新增就業人口12萬3千人,低於先前預估。
5月失業率從4月的5.0%降至4.7%,是2007年11月來最低,主因是許多美國人退出勞動市場。上月勞動參與率下降0.2%,至62.6%。
5月工資升幅也很小,平均時薪比4月攀升5美分或0.2%,按年則上揚2.5%。經濟學家指出,工資年增率須達到3至3.5%,才能拉抬通膨率升至聯儲局的2%目標。該中行主席葉倫曾說,每月就業人數若增加約10萬人,才能跟得上勞動年齡人口成長的腳步。
數據公佈後,芝加哥期貨數據顯示,6月升息概率只有4%,7月由42%降至36%,9月則是51%。
聯儲局理事布雷納德(Lael Brainard)認為,“正在冷卻”下來的美國就業數據顯示,勞動力市場腳步已放緩,不應過早升息。
6月14至15日聯邦公開市場委員會將在華盛頓開會,考慮是否要實施去年12月以來的首次加息。曾供職於美國財政部的布雷納德,是過去一年來對收緊貨幣政策態度最為謹慎的聯儲局官員之一。
“債券天王”格羅斯斷定聯儲局本月不會升息,他說:“這種數字當然會打銷6月升息念頭。數字太低了,聯儲局必須暫緩升息。”
摩根大通首席美國經濟學家費洛里也說:“就業成長減緩看來是跨行業的普遍現象,令人質疑成長動能與展望。這大致已把聯儲局6月升息議題撤下台面。就算要7月升息,數據也必須顯著反彈才成。”
美元指數盤中重貶1.7%
倫敦對衝基金Amiya資本說:“美國就業數據非常差,稍稍有利新興市場股票,因為聯儲局未來幾個月升息概率下降。”
道指一度滑落149點
升息預期轉弱,美元指數週五盤中重貶1.7%至93.986,是2月來最大單日貶幅,道瓊斯工商指數一度滑落149點,閉市跌幅收窄31.5點或0.2%,報17807.06。
美景氣走緩
美國5月服務業景氣擴張速度為2014年來最慢,顯示本季服務業對經濟成長的貢獻可能受抑制。
美國4月商品出口及工廠訂單則相對良好,顯示製造業景氣趨穩。
供給管理協會(I S M)公佈,5月非製造業指數降到52.9,遠低於市場預估的55.3,也是兩年多來最低,預示第二季經濟成長將更加平淡。
商務部同日公佈,4月貿易赤字為374億美元,雖比3月增加5.3%,但低於市場預估的413億美元。
4月出口增加2.5%至1千201億美元,商品與服務出口增加1.5%。商品進口額則增加2.4%,為1千789億美元,反映內需增加及油價上漲。
靜觀英脫歐23日公投
芝加哥聯儲總裁埃文斯(Charles Evans)表示,在國際經濟已經失去動能之際,本月英國有關歐盟身份的公投削弱了對經濟前景的信心。
他接受彭博電視訪問時說:“這給全球經濟環境增加了許多不確定性,而且由於全球經濟成長減緩,已經有了大量不確定性,這是個極大的未知數。”
分析師認為,儘管聯儲局內部對於升息達成明顯共識,認為美國經濟增長趨強及就業市場緊俏,已為升息提供理由,但地緣政治風險很可能使得升息計劃至少推遲到7月。
英國退歐公投將在6月23日舉行,聯儲局會議則正好落在前一週。若公投結果為退出歐盟,勢將震動金融市場,引發信貸利差擴大,促使資金流入避險資產,從而推高美元。聯儲局決策者可能希望等到英國退歐公投的威脅過去再升息。(星洲日報/財經


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 05, 2016, 07:55:03 AM



What Happens When The Fed Hikes During An Earnings Recession

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 4, 2016 11:19 AM
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At least until yesterday's abysmal jobs report, there was - just like last December - a renewed sense of optimism that just because the Fed had gotten surprisingly hawkish in recent weeks (just like it did in November) starting with the FOMC minutes, passing through the speeches of numerous Fed presidents, and culminating with last Friday's Janet Yellen appearance, that the US economy was once again set for a major rebound, leading to a substantial repricing higher in rate hike odds which was also coupled with a boost in risk sentiment. "Maybe the Fed will be right this time" the market thought.

Alas, the Fed was wrong as yesterday's jobs print showed all too well. As Gundlach told Reuters two days ago, "it's like people think that the Fed has this super-secret information about how strong the economy is about to become or that the economy is about to become smoking hot." He said that just hours before the BLS reported the worst non-farm payrolls data in nearly 6 years.

Gundlach also followed up with a comment on the Friday's jobs report: "It is a terrible employment report and the unemployment rate fell because people gave up. People are dropping out. There is no way to sugarcoat this report. You really can't sugarcoat it, can you?  When you start to see the figures fall in temporary workers, that means people are not needed. The temp figures are the canary in a coal mine."He added that "this puts incredible significance for next month's employment report after May's terrible report. It might be three strikes."

He was referring to the Fed's credibility, which once again took a big hit in the past 24 hours, because as we showed yesterday, rate hike odds of both a June and July hike have tumbled. The chart below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a direct representation of not only June rate hike odds which crashed to virtually zero, but also of the Fed's residual credibility.



On the other hand, the market should be delighted, because just like in late 2015 when the media narrative was one of constant hammering how a rate hike is good for stocks (only to do a dramatic U-turn... just like now), the reality is that the US economy is already on the verge of a recession: to be sure manufacturing already is contracting, the latest non-manufacturing ISM and Markit PMI surveys were both dreadful confirming the manufacturing malaise is spreading, wile corporate profits have not been negative for 4 quarters in a row (and according to Factset Q2 is set to report a -5% drop in Y/Y EPS once more).


As such the right question to ask is not what happens to stocks when the Fed starts hiking rates, but what happens to stocks when the Fed is hiking rates during an earnings recession. And, as BofA calculated recently, "Hiking during a profits recession usually hasn’t ended well." The details: "The Fed has only embarked on a tightening cycle during a profits recession three other times, which typically spelled downside for the S&P 500. .. The Fed began tightening despite a recession in corporate profits, a rare occurrence. In fact, since 1971, the Fed has begun tightening during a bona fide profits recession only three other times – 1976, 1983, and 1986; two out of those three instances saw stocks drop over the next twelve months. The S&P is essentially flat from when the Fed initially hiked."

In short: if corporate earnings are already contracting, typcially an early indication of economic slowdown, nothing good comes out of a rate hike as shown in the table below.



 

But wait, there's more, because if the Fed thinks that "one and pause" will help the S&P500, it may want to check the evidence. As BofA adds, "a pause doesn’t portend good things: our Global Investment Strategy team recently noted that equity returns have been generally negative in tightening cycles in which the Fed paused for one to two quarters between the initial and second rate hike." More: "in cycles where the Fed has paused one to two quarters between the first and second hike, equities have been in the red over the next three and six months, and were up just 3% in the twelve months following the initial hike."




In other words, having missed its rate hike window for this summer, absent a June jobs report that somehow surges to 250,000 or more, the Fed is now stuck until September at the earliest, at which point it will go into hibernation again until after the presidential election, at which point everything wil be in flux.

This also means that now that the Fed can admit defeat because the US economy just hit a brick wall as per the BLS, Yellen's next move to be priced in by the market may not be a rate hike at all, but a cut. Yes, a 25 bps buffer is hardly enough, but it may have to do. While for now the US economy does not support a recession-type response by the Fed, S&P 500 profits are i already in a recession, and it is they that make a rate hike here impossible.

Ironically, now that the US economy is finally cooperating with a dovish relent, all that Yellen will need is some very bad news or FX volatility out of China to help complete the cycle.

Time for another "Shanghai Accord" maybe, this time everything that was agreed upon in February but in reverse..
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 05, 2016, 02:25:50 PM




Why The Fed Is Trapped: A 1% Increase In Rates Would Result In Up To $2.4 Trillion Of Losses

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 4, 2016 7:53 PM
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A funny thing happened as every central bank around the world rushed to stimulate their economy by devaluing their currency in a global FX war that is now 7 years old and getting more violent by the day: with bond yields plunging, and over $10 trillion in global debt now having a negative yield, every fixed income investor starved for yield was pushed into the long end of the bond curve where whatever yield is left in the world of "safe" bonds is to be found. As long as interest rates never go up, this strategy is relatively safe. However, a major risk emerges when central banks start tightening.

To be sure, banks have been eager to front-run any concerns about the Fed's rate hike by cheering higher rates as precisely what they need to be more profitable, and the market has so far believed and rewarded bank stocks the higher rate hike odds rose. Just this Thursday, speaking at an investor conference James Dimon said that if short-term and long-term rates were to move up by 1 percentage point simultaneously, 70% of the benefit would come from the move in short-term rates. The reason for this is that even if long-term rates remain under pressure, and the curve flattens further, an increase in short-term rates provides an immediate boost to bank profits. That is because many loans are automatically priced against short-term benchmarks like LIBOR and Prime.

What Dimon did not discuss is the P&L impact from the higher yields and dropping bond prices in the long end of the yield curve. And it is here, in the unprecedented duration exposure that central banks have forced everyone into, that the true risk resides.

How big is the risk? According to an analysis by Goldman's Charles Himmelberg, if rates rise by the Jamie Dimon-referenced 1 percentage point, the market value loss would be between $1 and $2.4 trillion! Putting this loss in context, even the smaller $1trn loss would be over 50% larger than the market value lost in the 1994 bond market selloff in inflation-adjusted terms, and larger than the cumulative credit losses experienced to date in the non-agency residential mortgage backed securities market. And this is only only as a result of a 1% interest rate increase: assuming full normalization of rates to their historical level of 3.5%, and the level of mark-to-market losses climbs to a staggering $3 trillion.

The culprit? The Fed, the same Fed which does not to grasp that by "renormalizing" into the biggest bond bubble in history is assuring massive losses for the financial sector.


The problem is simple: having inflated a gargantuan bond bubble, letting the air out would by definition lead to dramatic consequences not just for bonds but for all other asset classes.

As Goldman shows in the chart below, the growth in total debt outstanding, in constant 2015 dollars, has been unprecedented. The total face value of all US bonds, including Treasuries, Federal agency debt, mortgages, corporates, municipals and ABS, is $40 trillion (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association). The Barclays US aggregate is a smaller number, $17 trillion, as the index excludes some categories of debt, such as money markets, with low duration. To end up with a more palatable number, Goldman uses the Barclays measure of debt outstanding, although it admits this may lead to an understatement of the total loss potential. Using either measure, total debt outstanding has grown by over 60% in real Dollars since 2000.




 

It is not just the notional amount of debt that has been relentlessly rising: as Exhibit 3 shows, the aggregate interest rate duration across the bond market has also increased over the past several years, up over 20% vs. the 1995-2005 average level. Longer durations are largely driven by lengthening maturities on the bonds outstanding, as issuers have elected to term out their debt structures. Exhibit 4 shows that the average maturity of corporate bonds issued in 2015 and 2016 is over 16 years,  vs. an average of 8.6 years during 1995-2005. The US Treasury has also chosen to lengthen its debt maturity structure, with more use of long duration bonds.



The secular decline in nominal interest rates has also contributed to the drift upward in bond duration.


In 1994, the average yield on the bond index was 5.6%, vs. 2.2% currently. Lower bond coupons means that proportionately more of the bond cashflows now comes from principal, which tends to be distributed towards the end of the bond lifetime.

Here is the math of how a 1% increase in rates would lead to trillions in losses.

Combining a duration estimate of 5.6 years with a total notional exposure of $17trn, and current Dollar price of bonds of $105.6, indicates that, to first order, a 100bp shock to interest rates would translate into a $1trn market value loss. That is using the more conservative estimate of the bond market. Using the broader bond market sizing of $40trn, the market value loss estimate would be $2.4 trillion. While Goldman believes that using the larger number "would likely be an overstatement, as much of the extra debt in the broader universe is either short maturity or floating rate", even the smaller $1 trillion loss estimate is large: over 50% larger than the market value lost in the 1994 bond market selloff in inflation-adjusted terms, and larger than the cumulative credit losses experienced to date in the non-agency residential mortgage backed securities market.

As Goldman concludes, "even if there is not a large net social loss from a rise in rates, the $1 trillion gross loss estimate suggests that some investor entities would likely experience significant distress. In the 1994 bond market decline, for example, losses on a mortgage derivative portfolio were a major factor contributing to the Orange County, California bankruptcy event. All in, the increase in total gross debt exposure, combined with lengthening bond durations and an arguably expensive bond market, suggest that rising yields should be on the short list of scenarios to be monitored by risk managers.

This ignores the losses that would also impact the Fed's own holdings of rates instruments: at last check the Fed's balance sheet had a DV01 of about $2.5 billion, or a $250 billion hit for every 1% increase in rates.

As Bloomberg adds, analysts and regulators have warned for months that rising rates will be painful for investors and lenders, but bond yields remain stubbornly low. Perhaps the reason for this is that "investors and lenders" realize that it is only a matter of time before the Fed understands it is trapped and as a result of these gargantuan losses that would be imposed on the financial industry, it simply can not hike rates. Alternatively, if there is indeed as much as $2.4 trillion in losses coming, then while bonds will be slammed, it is the equity that will be wiped out. And, as this market has demonstrated all too well, when equity selloffs start, the proceeds usually go right into bonds, making the bubble even bigger.

On the other hand, if the Fed - which has demonstated it is painfully clueless in these past few years - intends to push on with a rate hike despite a raging profits recession and a global economy that is one snowstorm away from contraction, then the trade is simple: take advantage of the algos' stupidity and short financials. Because far from "beneficiaries" of the Fed's tightening on the short end, as much as Jamie Dimon would disagree, it is the long end where the market's unprecedented duration risk is about to rear its ugly head if and when the Fed does try to "normalize."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 05, 2016, 02:27:28 PM



Fed's Mester says gradual rate hikes still appropriate after jobs report
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The latest disappointing U.S. jobs number has not changed the overall economic picture and gradual rate hikes remain appropriate, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said on Saturday.

The Fed raised rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade. But further tightening has proven hard to achieve, and most economists now see the next move in September.

"I still believe that in order to achieve our monetary policy goals, a gradual upward pace of the funds rate is appropriate," Mester, a voting member on Fed policy this year, told reporters in the Swedish capital.

"The timing of actually when the rate hikes would occur and the slope of that gradual path is data-dependent." Fed policy-makers next meet on June 14-15 to decide on rates.


Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester
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Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester
The U.S. economy added just 38,000 jobs in May, well below the consensus estimate of 164,000 and the smallest gain since September 2010.

"You can't read too much into one number, but it is certainly part of the data that will be taken into account as we go into the June FOMC meeting and for the rest of the year," Mester said.

Job seekers stand in a line at a career fair in Chicago.
Economy whiffs on job creation in April
"I think that the weak employment number has not changed fundamentally my economic outlook."

In a speech, Mester also weighed in to the debate about the role of monetary policy in heading off financial imbalances saying the Fed should only resort to using interest rates if other more precise tools fail.

"If our macro prudential tools proved to be inadequate and financial stability risks continued to grow, I believe monetary policy should be on the table as a possible defense," she said.

As the Fed approaches a potential rate hike as soon as this summer, one reason to act sooner than later is to head off any brewing instabilities in risky corners of financial markets such as commercial real estate, where high valuations have attracted some recent concern.

So far the Fed's approach has been to use financial regulations and supervision of banks and other firms - so-called macro prudential tools - to head off any emerging risks.

"Financial stability should not be added as a third objective for monetary policy," said Mester
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 06, 2016, 07:08:01 AM



The Fed's Rate Hike Cycle Is Likely Complete, Not Just Beginning

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 5, 2016 3:05 PM
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Submitted by Chris Hamilton via Hambone's Stuff blog,

The Federal Reserve continues discussing the timing for a cycle of rate hikes and a return to "normal"... but I think there is more than ample evidence which points to exactly the opposite.  Seems the adage "watch what they do...not what they say" is appropriate as ever.  So where's the evidence?

1) FFR and Manufacturing Employment Growth Cycles

The chart below shows a 3yr moving average of the growth/decline in manufacturing jobs in the US vs. the same 3yr moving average of the Federal Funds Rate.  Manufacturing job growth representing a proxy for business and economic expansion.  Noteworthy are the blue arrows representing cycle peaks in manufacturing job creation all (except this present cycle) taking place during a rising rate environment and followed a couple years later by cycle interest rate peaks (dashed black arrows).  This next round of rate cuts incented the next round of investment and manufacturing job growth.  This has been a highly reliable indicator.

I draw your attention to the last blue arrow on the right of the chart.  It doesn't seem to agree with the Fed that it's about time to start a rate hike cycle...in fact it seems historically to argue now is the point in time the Fed typically begins easing?!?



And a close-up since 1980...the pattern of rate cycle bottoms soon after corresponding with manufacturing job cycle tops is fairly plain (yellow dashed arrows).  However, previously this was taking place during a rate hike cycle...but not this time.




Which seems to argue that the Fed is far more likely to start cutting interest rates (NIRP anyone?) than on the cusp of a rate hike cycle.

 

2) Fed Funds Rate and Shadow QE Rate

This rate cut rather than hike scenario seems to agree with the work done and posted on the Atlanta Fed's website (HERE) that QE was essentially the equivalent of negative interest rates (charted out below).  This additional QE accommodation in addition to ZIRP peaked with negative 2.9% rates in early 2014.  Upon the initiation of the taper of QE in early 2014, effectively the interest rate hike cycle began.  And I suggest that the Fed's .25% hike early this year was the end of the hiking cycle...not the start.



This viewpoint finds significantly more evidence as one peruses the demographics of our situation...not the swelling ranks of old but the stalling young population, total employment among them, and full time employment (chart below).


3) Decelerating and Declining Core US Population and Employment

As of 2000, the 25-54yr/old segment of the US population made up 120 million persons and held approximately 75% of all jobs in the US.  This critical core populations period of rapid growth from post WWII (and shown from 1980 in the chart below) ended just prior to the turn of the century.  Since that time, the core group representing the vast majority of the US workforce (and the vitality of the US economy) has entirely stalled out.  There are now 600k fewer total jobs among this core population segment than in 2000 (where this data set becomes available) with 500k of those representing declining full time jobs.  However, the redline rocket shot in the chart below representing mortgage debt went ballistic in this same period.  The Federal Reserve mandated interest rate cuts with the intention to substitute credit for declining numbers and quality of potential consumers and home buyers.  The Fed simply no longer believed markets premised on supply and demand should determine prices...the Fed would determine the "correct" values and centrally impose policy to achieve these targets.



And what that looked like comparing the Federal Funds Rate vs. outstanding US mortgage debt.  The sudden fall in mortgage debt starting in '08 corresponded to two contradictory inflections.  1) the implementation of ZIRP and the lowest mortgage rates in a lifetime, and 2) the peak of the 25-54yr/old population, employment, and full time jobs.  The demographic peak and fall seemingly overwhelming the Fed's "free money"...but the crowding out of those typically looking at bonds for retirement income or foreigners looking for a "safe haven" found a new "home"; rental real estate but with a minimum 20% down-payment (and often fully in cash).




Below, a close-up of these variables since 2000.  Difficult to imagine what a rate hike cycle beginning now would look like given the fact that the Fed's ZIRP policy couldn't induce any net new mortgage debt since its introduction.

 


 
 
4) Total Population Growth vs. Full Time Job Growth

Over the previous and current interest rate cycles (measured from peak to peak), the growth in total US population vs. the net new growth in full time jobs above and beyond the previous cycle employment peak (below).  This cycle has only replaced the jobs lost during the downturn but has created no net new jobs...not typically a time to begin slowing the economy with rate hikes.

 
5) "Not in Labor Force"

And the big winner...the true growth engine of ZIRP and QE...the present explosion of those deemed "not in labor force" (below).  Those deemed neither employed or "unemployed".  Simply "other".  This seems to be where nearly all the growth in the US population has gone over the current interest rate cycle.



6) Boooooomers

Lastly, please no proposing that the rise in "not in labor force" is solely due to the retiring boomers.  The chart below outlines the rising 55+yr/old population, employment, and full time jobs among them.  In fact since '00, all gains in full time employment have been among the 55+yr/olds simply offsetting the full time job loses seen among the 25-54yr/olds.  The swelling elderly ranks filled with underfunded seniors who are running into stagflation (high rising costs absent rising COLA's).  They are essentially left with the choice to continue working longer but in so doing are mortgaging the young adults future to fund their present.  This essentially means there is a generational skip taking place...hollowing out the core populations finances and the economy so dependent on them.



Conclusion

Somehow, it seems the preponderance of evidence points to this being the typical timing the Fed chooses to initiate a new cycle of accommodation and rate cuts rather than the idea we are just starting a rate hike cycle.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 06, 2016, 08:19:39 AM



The Fed painted itself into a corner: Saxo Bank CIO
Stephanie Landsman   | @stephlandsman
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Painting in a corner
Time to get nervous—the Fed painted itself into a corner: Saxo Bank CIO
The Federal Reserve may be in a box when it comes to conducting monetary policy — a scenario likely exacerbated by disappointing jobs report numbers released last week.

Just 38,000 jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in May, the weakest performance in nearly six years. The data stoked new fears about the economy's health, and threw cold water on the Fed's recent hints at higher rates in the coming months.

"Friday's data again pushes back decisions," said Saxo Bank chief economist and chief investment officer Steen Jakobsen told CNBC recently. "The ability of the Fed to move now is almost entirely based on their 'need' or 'want.'"

Late last month, Fed chief Janet Yellen said in a speech that an interest rate hike was "appropriate" in the near term, and could rise gradually. With that in mind, Jakobsen argued the Fed has painted itself into a corner, as well as other central banks around the world.

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Back in April 2015, he published a note declaring that zero growth, zero inflation, and zero reforms have left countries drowning in a "new nothingness" and a "world stuck in neutral. "

The issues concerning him the most right now: The Fed appears to be losing its communication battle, and how it's been making policy decisions as the U.S. deals with the lowest productivity in decades.
"You have to be worried the trend will continue and the Fed will make it worse," Jakobsen told CNBC's "Futures Now" last week.

"We need to be nervous about the consequences of what I perceive to be one of the biggest monetary mistakes of the Federal Reserve," he said. "The fact they move not based on their mandate—they move based on the U.S. economy which is still way, way below its potential growth."

According to its mandate, the Fed has a responsibility to make decisions based on full employment and price stability.
"I don't really see why the Fed should move based on economics and external factors like the U.S. dollar which remains relatively strong," he said.
Jakobsen still believes the Fed will hike interest rates at its July meeting, even though he says this would be a mistake. He says it should wait to raise rates until the economic data supports it, and there's no timetable for that
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 07, 2016, 05:59:05 AM



Janet Yellen probably just signaled two interest rate hikes for this year
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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If Fed Chair Janet Yellen has her way, there likely will be two rate hikes this year, contrary to current market expectations.

While Yellen didn't overtly express that desire, there was one key section of the speech she prepared Monday that strongly signaled two hikes on the way:

Next week, concurrent with our policy meeting, the FOMC participants will release a new set of economic projections. Those could, of course, differ from the previous set of such projections in March. But speaking for myself, although the economy recently has been affected by a mix of countervailing forces, I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones.
The translation is fairly simple: Each quarter, the Federal Open Market Committee releases its Summary of Economic Projections, which is basically where members feel the economy is going and what the likely path of the Fed's interest rate target will be.

At the March meeting, FOMC officials indicated that two rate hikes are likely this year. Yellen's remarks indicate her opinion has not changed since then.

"That's still her sense. She's still cautiously optimistic about the economy," said David Blitzer, chairman and managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "She's just watching the data, and right now if anyone could read her mind she's still expecting two rate hikes before the end of the year."

With the chair highly adept so far at consensus building, the likelihood should increase that the Fed will move twice, even though it's something the market currently does not expect.

After the Yellen speech, the market was assigning very little chance of a hike this summer — just a 4 percent probability for June and 31 percent for July. September had a 52 percent probability, just as it did before the speech. But the CME's Fed tracker was indicating just a 21 percent chance for a second hike by December.
"What you're seeing in Yellen's comments today is the Fed is not willing to abandon the promise of at least two rate hikes later this year," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors. "The Fed's saying, hold on a minute, there are a number of positives that are occurring and we're holding tight to the idea that we could be raising rates a couple times this year."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 07, 2016, 07:27:31 AM



Tuesday, 7 June 2016 | MYT 1:53 AM
Fed’s Yellen sees rates hikes, mostly good economic picture






 "One should never attach too much significance to any single monthly report,” Yellen says regarding last week's US jobs report. - AFP pic
"One should never attach too much significance to any single monthly report,” Yellen says regarding last week's US jobs report. - AFP pic
 
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PHILADELPHIA: Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said on Monday that interest rate hikes are likely on the way because “positive economic forces have outweighed the negative” for the United States now that risks from earlier this year have diminished.

In the last public comment from any US central banker before a key policy meeting next week, the Fed chief said last month’s jobs report was “disappointing” and bears watching, though she warned against attaching too much significance to it on its own.

In her address, Yellen was careful not to give timelines on raising interest rates, in contrast to a speech on May 27, when she said “probably in coming months such a move would be appropriate.”

While on Monday Yellen stressed that surprises could emerge that could change her expectations, the speech was broadly buoyant, with Yellen listing four main risks to the US economy - slower demand and productivity, and inflation and overseas risks - before downplaying them all.

“If incoming data are consistent with labour market conditions strengthening and inflation making progress toward our 2% objective, as I expect, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be appropriate,” Yellen said at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia.

The US central bank raised rates from near zero in December in the first US policy tightening in nearly a decade.

Prospects of another hike this month were all but killed by a report last week showing only 38,000 jobs were created in May, somewhat muting recent upbeat data on consumer spending, housing and overall US growth.

Although the report was “concerning, let me emphasise that one should never attach too much significance to any single monthly report,” Yellen said. “Other timely indicators from the labor market have been more positive.”

Amid the “countervailing forces,” she said, “I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones. As a result, I expect the economic expansion to continue, with the labour market improving further and GDP growing moderately.”

Economists now see September or possibly July as the most likely time for a quarter-point policy tightening, while traders in futures markets are betting on later in the year.

The dollar initially rose following Yellen’s comments but later retraced, and financial markets did not give an appreciable signal on whether investors saw more or less chances of a rate hike in the near future. US stock prices were about flat compared to their levels just before the speech.

While Yellen did not repeat her line from a week-and-a-half ago when she said rate hikes would probably be appropriate in coming months, she said she remained optimistic inflation would rise to the Fed’s 2% goal because oil prices had reversed their downward path and the dollar had steadied after a long period of gains. - Reuter
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 08, 2016, 05:46:13 AM



Bernanke Blew It Big-Time: He Should Have Raised Rates Three Years Ago

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 7, 2016 9:35 AM
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Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

* * *

Bernanke blew it big-time, letting the "recovery" run seven years without any significant increase in rates.

It is now painfully obvious that Ben Bernanke blew it big-time by not raising rates three years ago when the economy and markets enjoyed tailwinds. The former Federal Reserve chairperson, who has claimed the mantle of savior of the global economy, foolishly kept rates at zero until tailwinds turned to headwinds, at which point he handed Janet Yellen the unenviable task of raising rates as the headwinds are strengthening.

Ben Bernanke is not the savior who rescued the global economy; he is the clueless fool who plunged a poisoned knife in its back. After weathering the spot of bother in Euroland in 2011-2012, the global economy had multiple tailwinds in 2013--tailwinds that enabled Bernanke and the Fed to raise rates in a series of measured steps.


Tailwind #1: the Fed's binge-buying of assets (QE3) was still ramping up in 2013:



 


Tailwind #2: the yield curve spread had bounced off its 2012 low:



 

Tailwind #3: market speculative positions and sentiment were solidly positive:



 



Tailwind #4: China's economy and appreciation of the yuan had not yet weakened:



In April 2013, the market's "recovery" had already been running for four years. By mid-2013, the S&P 500 had soared from 667 in March 2009 to 1,600, exceeding its previous all-time highs around 1,574--a gain of 930 points or 140% off the 2009 lows.

What else did The Bernank want in mid-2013--an infinite line of credit with the Central Bank of Mars? He had literally every tailwind a central banker could want to support higher interest rates--especially rates that could have clicked higher by tiny .25% increments.

Instead, Bernanke blew it big-time, letting the "recovery" run seven years without any significant increase in rates. Now that the "recovery" is in its eighth year, it's starting to roll over. All those tailwinds have reversed into headwinds, especially China, which has seen the RMB (yuan) strengthen by 20% as its currency peg to the U.S. dollar has dragged it higher.

The 20% appreciation in the yuan makes China's exports increasingly costly and thus less competitive globally.

As I explained in Why the Fed Has to Raise Rates (December 4, 2015), the U.S. dollar serves two sets of users: the domestic U.S. economy and the international economy that uses the USD as a reserve currency.

While the Fed poo-bahs are constantly spewing propaganda about how the Fed serves Main Street (well, it does serve Main Street in a manner of speaking--as a tasty snack to Wall Street), the one absolutely critical mission of the Fed in the Imperial Project is maintaining U.S. dollar hegemony.

No nation ever achieved global hegemony by weakening its currency. Hegemony requires a strong currency, for the ultimate competitive advantage is trading fiat currency that has been created out of thin air for real commodities and goods.

Generating currency out of thin air and trading it for tangible goods is the definition of hegemony. Is there is any greater magic power than that?


In essence, the Fed must raise rates to maintain the U.S. dollar hegemony and keep commodities such as oil cheap for American consumers. The most direct way to keep commodities cheap is to strengthen one's currency, which makes commodities extracted in other nations cheaper by raising the purchasing power of the domestic economy on the global stage.

Another critical element of U.S. hegemony is to be the dumping ground for exports of our trading partners. By strengthening the dollar, the Fed increases the purchasing power of everyone who holds USD. This lowers the cost of goods imported from nations with weakening currencies, who are more than willing to trade their commodities and goods for fiat USD.

The loser as the USD strengthens is China, which must devalue its currency or de-peg its currency from the USD to preserve its export-sector competitiveness. Anything that could disrupt China's fragile economy, credit expansion and capital flows is a global worry, and Bernanke blew it big-time by not raising rates when global growth was still a tailwind.

Now that the tailwinds have become headwinds, the global economy is like a cracked glass teetering on a fence post in a rising storm. Every move in interest rates has immediate consequences in currencies, bond yields and capital flows, and each of these winds has the potential to topple the increasingly fragile global economy into recession--or worse.

Ben Bernanke blew it big-time, not just for America, but for the world. This reality cannot be dismissed as the luxury of hindsight; it was clear to many observers that after four years of recovery, it was time to start raising rates in 2013. Leaders must lead; if the Fed chair is so weak-kneed that he/she must ask the market's permission for every decision, that's not leading--it's following a short-term profit-obsessed liquidity junkie off the cliff
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 08, 2016, 05:47:44 AM



Is the Fed Outright Buying Stocks/Futures to Prop Up the Markets?

Phoenix Capital Research's picture
by Phoenix Capital... - Jun 7, 2016 7:41 AM
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“Someone” is getting desperate.

Throughout the last week, anytime stocks have begun to correct or drop, “someone” has bought S&P 500 futures to prop the market up.

Anyone who’s been involved with the markets for a while knows the difference between real buyers and manipulation. This is manipulation plain and simple.

Look at all those “V” rallies. Three days in a row stocks opened DOWN and someone immediately stepped in and began buying aggressively.



Another tell-tale sign of manipulation: the buying halts almost the moment stocks get to 2,100 on the S&P 500. At this point the manipulation ends. And because there are few REAL investors buying stocks at these levels, the market immediately retreats.


Could it be that the Fed or Plunge Protection Team is aware that earnings are collapsing… signaling that this stock market bubble is ready to burst?



Or that the US economy fell off a cliff a few months ago? We're now almost assuredly in a recession.



Indeed, the number of data points that are "the worst since 2008-2009" is staggering...


This whole mess feels just like the end of 2007/ beginning of 2008 to me.

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide

In it, we outline precisely how the coming crash will unfold, as well as which investments will perform best, including “crash” insurance trades that will pay out big returns during a market collapse.

We are giving away just 1,000 copies of this report for FREE to the public.

To pick yours up swing by:

http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 09, 2016, 02:06:43 PM



MENT METHODS No Hurry, But Rate Hike Looms For Sometime This Year (Maybe)
ByPYMNTSPosted on June 8, 2016 Federal Reserve interest rates
June is out. July looks iffy. But keep an eye out for, possibly, one and done for a Fed boost.
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One and done. Or two and through.

One of Wall Street’s favorite parlor games is to guess when rate hikes are in the offing and when they are not. The game has some real consequences, as it affects the directions of both the stock and bond markets.

So, for Fed interest rate hikes, as is the case with so much else in life, timing is everything. We’ve already picked over the jobs report that sparked a (minor) tizzy last week, and with the conventional wisdom that a hike is off the table in June, the question remains as to whether July is the magic month or whether some other later date will be.

The fact that Treasury prices rose a bit on Tuesday (June 7), with the attendant effect of pushing yields lower, shows that the yield on the two-year Treasury is at its lowest level since the middle of May. Last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen sidestepped at least some language that was (carefully) disseminated, which said the Fed would likely raise rates within the next couple of months (which means now and beyond).

Lo and behold, that same language has been struck from the most recent commentary, and the dismal jobs report makes it dead certain, pretty much, that nothing is going to happen next week. The odds of a July hike may be sinking, too, as we’d likely have to make sure that the “38,000 awful headlines that we hope are not true” event from last week proves to be a one-off. Maybe it isn’t, as the two months before that were downwardly revised, too.

Where does that lead us for a rate hike? The most recent curve in the roadmap came from remarks just disclosed from the beginning of this week, where Yellen stated: “I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones.”

Translation: It seems that the latest jobs data, in her eyes, is a fluke or, barring flukiness, remains only a piece of the puzzle and not the biggest piece. Inflation still remains low enough that it alone would not be the other determining factor on its own. But the Fed telegraphed two rate hikes this year, which means that some movement is likely, barring a major economic data point that looks to be catastrophic. The onus seems to be on the data, with a central bank’s collective mind already made up, looking for positive reinforcement for a rate hike
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 13, 2016, 03:45:18 PM



Rate-hike probability plummets
Jun 11 2016, 09:13 ET | By: Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor  Contact this editor with comments or a news tip

The day prior to May's weak employment report, Fed Funds futures put the probability of June or July rate hikes at 20.6% and 60%, respectively.Markets haven't exactly been jittery since, but there's certainly been a global rush into government paper over the past week, with yields on Swiss and Japanese 10-year bonds falling even deeper into negative territory, and those on German 10-year Bunds threatening to go into the minus column. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is a towering 1.64%, but has now fallen below the level of Feb. 11 - the bottom of the panicky start to 2016.As for a rate hike, forget about it in June, according to Fed Funds futures, which now put the probability of a move next week at less than 2%. July? Now, just about a 20% chance.In fact one would now have to go all the way out to December to find short-term rate punters expecting more than a 50% chance of the Fed lifting rates
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 14, 2016, 08:11:40 AM



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Fed Hikes Ahead? Here's What Janet Yellen is Watching
By Kate Gibson, CBS MoneyWatch
Published 06/13 2016 11:38AMUpdated 06/13 2016 11:38AM
Photo from MGN Online


NEW YORK, NY (CBS MONEYWATCH)

With the next interest rate decision coming from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Wall Street is voicing some distress that Janet Yellen is overly ambiguous about the path of the Fed's monetary policy.

"There's a little criticism starting to stir, that she's not very clear about what matters the most to her or other members of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)," said Hugh Johnson of Hugh Johnson Advisors.

Charles Plosser, a former Philadelphia Fed president, has described as a "problem" the desire to reach consensus on FOMC statements that he believes has made them "more vague and uncommunicative."

Yellen reinforced the notion in a recent speech in Philadelphia, saying investors should not count on the Fed to map out its plan for rate hikes. "The best we can legitimately do is explain what factors are guiding our thinking," Yellen said.

"Charlie Plosser and a lot of others would like her to be more transparent. They're saying something just short of 'tell us what you're going to do,' which is unreasonable at best. They [Fed members] don't know until they get into the meeting," Johnson said of the FOMC, which begins its two-day policy-setting session Tuesday.

"I think those rumblings are unfounded. I think she's been abundantly clear," Johnson said, referring to Yellen's frequently repeated refrain that Fed moves are data-dependent.

"The data she depends on are inflation numbers and employment numbers," Johnson said.

The Fed has also made clear that it's looking to hike borrowing costs, with its stated strategy most recently derailed by the shockingly poor May jobs report, showing the economy added only 38,000 jobs in the month, the softest figure in nearly six years.

"It isn't written in stone, but for the most part we have all the data we need to make a good guess," Johnson said. "Based on the employment numbers, based on the inflation numbers and based on other uncertain international incidents, I would be inclined to guess they are not going to raise in June."

The Fed is eager to normalize, and would love to increase rates two to three times this year, according to Tom Anderson, chief investment officer at Boston Private Wealth. But he added, "they need the data to show up in a certain way to make the market digest their decisions better."

Yellen and her colleagues are under pressure to raise rates, in large part because if the economy runs into trouble they need to have some room to lower them again.

The Fed is looking to avoid a scenario where they "don't have any arrows in their quiver" should it appear the economy is headed into a recession a year or so down the road, Jim Russell, principal and portfolio manager at Bahl & Gaynor, said.

What's needed, in Anderson's view, is a good jobs number for June, a slightly higher inflation number or further growth in wages. "If we get any positive data points that would support the case for raising, July is a definite possibility. If not then, they'll be looking at September."

"The jobs report was weak, but the overall employment data has been consistently in the right direction," Anderson said. "The trend has been in favor of a hike."

"By any objective measure, 4.7 percent, that is full employment," Russell said of the nation's unemployment rate. "And it does appear that the inflation rate is starting to increase a bit, to a level where they need to cut off extraordinary accommodation."

If the June jobs report shows the May report was "not a fluke, then we'll have an entirely different conversation," Anderson said.

However, Johnson also pointed out that "The numbers don't tell you everything. Yellen thinks broadly about what's going on in the world. She cares about the dollar, she cares about Brexit, she cares about the global financial markets and what's going on in China."

So long as the U.K. remains in the European Union and the June nonfarm payrolls numbers don't confirm a trend that May's awful numbers imply, the Fed will hike two times in 2016, Johnson and Russell believe. Anderson thinks Yellen & Co. will move only once before the end of the year.

"My guess would be July and October," Johnson said.

"They'd love to hike two times. I think they'll only hike once," Anderson offered.

The June 23 vote that determines whether Britain remains in the European Union is a major factor in the Fed's calculations, followed by the release of June employment numbers in early July.

"By July we'll have the Brexit vote behind us and a second data point on nonfarm payrolls. Should the Brexit vote go with the U.K. staying in the EU and should the jobs numbers bounce back, that probably gives the Fed license to take rates up a notch here," said Russell. He believes the first hike is likely in July and the second likely in December.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 14, 2016, 03:02:41 PM



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US Fed should not delay 'normalisation' with further stay of rate hike: Nanyang B-school professor
By Chan Chao Peh / theedgemarkets.com   | June 14, 2016 : 1:38 PM MYT   
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SINGAPORE (June 14): With disappointing US job growth numbers for May and growing concerns over “Brexit”, the possibility of a June rate hike by the US Fed has eased.

However, from the perspective of associate professor Lee Boon Keng from the Nanyang Business School, such a decision is “fundamentally flawed” on several levels.

Lee acknowledges that the lower-than-expected job growth numbers have to be taken into proper context. While numbers for May were indeed a surprise, it was on the back of rather steady job market which has been on a monthly average of 170,000, which is above the Fed’s aim of 100,000.

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Unemployment, down a mere 0.3 percentage points, stood at 4.7%. On the other hand, American workers are enjoying higher salaries, with wages up 2.5% y-o-y.

“More importantly, weekly jobless claims, a leading indicator, remain at levels low enough to indicate that labour market is tight and wages will only edge higher,” states Lee.

Lee also debunks claims of the absence of inflation. He points out that core CPI inflation has been above the Fed’s own 2% target for the six months to May, which is taking place even with oil prices coming down.

In addition, inflation can be seen happening via the ISM prices index, which measures prices businesses pay for goods and services. For one, ISM prices paid by manufacturers are at their highest since June 2011, when oil was at US$100 (S$136), and not US$50 now.

Lee also notes that US real GDP growth has reached 2.4% for the past two years, which is higher than the Fed’s long term projection of 2%. “When the market says growth is anaemic, it is in comparison to pre-Lehman crisis years where it was clearly unsustainable. That is why we got into a crisis,” he states.

Lastly, the US economy is not going to be the next Japan, which therefore gives “absolutely no reason” for interest rates to remain so low for so long, states Lee.

“There is no perfect moment to wean the market, especially emerging markets, off the opioid of cheap liquidity. The notion that wealth creation through cheap credit will drive general economic good is a flawed argument. The more likely outcome is widening income divide that creates social instability that could result in isolationism. The Fed is simply wrong to delay normalisation any longer,” he adds
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 16, 2016, 06:00:26 AM



Fed tells market: We're taking summer off
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The Federal Reserve sent a strong signal that it now expects only one interest rate hike this year, and the market now sees less than a 50 percent chance of even one rise by year-end.

The Fed's post-meeting statement and new forecast did not contain many surprises, and stocks held steady, but the two-year Treasury note, most sensitive to Fed news, rallied hard. The dollar fell slightly.

The U.S. central bank continued to lean toward hiking rates, but the Fed's "dot plot," which contains the interest rate forecasts of Fed officials, shows that six members now believe there will be just one rate rise this year, up from one member in March. Even though the central bank's official forecast still shows two rate hikes, Fed watchers took the increase in sentiment for one hike as a more important indicator.

"It should point to a weaker dollar, and the thing is, now the next event is Brexit, so it's hard to see a lot of people fighting the moves that are now underway," said John Briggs, head of strategy at RBS. "As much as anything, it kind of validates where the market is, but doesn't mean (bond yields can't fall further) if we get more worried about Brexit."

The Fed also lowered its outlook for rate hikes into the future. Central bank officials are now looking for the funds rate to rise to 1.6 percent in 2017, as opposed to the 1.9 percent estimate from March, and to 2.4 percent in 2017, from a 3.0 percent estimate previously.

Fed watchers continues to expect a hike, more likely now for September or December than July. According to RBS, futures markets now indicate just a 44 percent chance of a rate hike by the December meeting.

"I think the consensus has been moving that way for some time. You have one more rate hike, and then it just becomes a guessing game," said Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. "I think the Fed needed to, and they accomplished with the language of the press release that they're keeping a July rate hike on the table."

However, Clemons said he believes September is much more likely for the next hike.

"There's not enough inflationary pressures to make them do it" sooner, said Clemons. "Time is their friend."

Fed watchers had seen the weak May jobs report, with only 38,000 nonfarm payrolls, as the main reason the central bank did not hike rates this week. But there has also been an increase in market worries about Brexit — the U.K. referendum, scheduled for next week, on whether to leave the European Union.

The Fed modified its statement to show "the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while economic activity appears to have picked up." It also pointed to growth in household spending.

Treasury yields have plumbed new levels as global bond markets have reacted recently to both Brexit and the easing of foreign central banks. The German 10-year bund this week fell below a zero yield for the first time ever. The U.S. 10-year on Wednesday was yielding 1.58 percent, still above its February low of 1.53 percent.

"In sum, the policy statement embodied no new information about the timing of the next rate hike in the normalization process, but leans very dovish," noted Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies.

"(Fed Chair) Janet Yellen may change our opinion, but right now we think that it is highly probable that there is again one rate hike in 2016, with December again being the most likely date," he wrote.

Respondents to CNBC's June Fed survey this week identified the jobs report as the biggest obstacle to a June hike, with global growth concerns second, and Brexit the third. The Fed did not point to Brexit in its statement but Yellen said in a briefing that it was something Fed officials considered.

Fifty-five percent said the jobs report was a statistical blip, but 35 percent said it was evidence of a new trend of lower employment growth. Forty percent said job growth was depressed because the economy is close to full employment, while 58 percent said they think employers are uncertain about the future.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 16, 2016, 07:26:56 AM



Thursday, 16 June 2016 | MYT 3:38 AM
Yellen says Brexit vote influenced Fed call to hold rates steady






 Yellen holds a news conference following the Fed’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting. - Reuters pic
Yellen holds a news conference following the Fed’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting. - Reuters pic
 
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WASHINGTON: Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said next week’s referendum in the UK on whether to remain in the European Union was a factor in the US central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady at its meeting Wednesday in Washington.

“It is a decision that could have consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets,” Yellen said during a press conference following the meeting. A vote on June 23 by Britons to leave the EU “could have consequences in turn for the US economic outlook,” she said.

Growing worries over a potential British exit have roiled financial markets, sending stocks lower around the globe in the past week, pushing investors into safe havens like German bonds and US Treasuries, and weakening the pound. Five opinion polls published this week showed “Leave” supporters ahead.

US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew last week warned of repercussions to the global economy, while Bank of England (BOE) governor Mark Carney said a vote to exit might lead to a recession in the UK.



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The BOE has begun a series of extra market operations aimed at boosting bank funding around the referendum. European Central Bank governing council member Ilmars Rimsevics said last week the bank was prepared to offer euro liquidity.

The UK joined the European Economic Community, a predecessor body to the EU, in 1973. It has the second-largest national economy within the 28-member group, behind Germany. - Bloomberg
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 16, 2016, 02:33:16 PM



葉倫被啥嚇到?非能源企業投資、長期通膨預期轉弱
回應(0) 人氣(357) 收藏(0) 2016/06/16 11:30
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-16 11:30:05 記者 賴宏昌 報導
聯準會(FED)今年初還大談年內將升息4次、到現在卻是連一次都還沒升!為何會如此?且看FED主席葉倫(Janet Yellen;見圖)如何解釋!
葉倫15日在聯邦公開市場操作委員會(FOMC)利率會議會後記者會上表示,近期的經濟數據呈現好壞參半,去年底、今年初美國的經濟成長力道相對疲軟。她指出,出口疲軟(受美元以及海外需求低迷)以及能源業低迷是在預期當中,但經濟中其他產業活動放緩則是出乎意料之外;特別是,能源業以外的的企業投資在冬季期間特別疲軟、到今年春季似乎都還是如此。
今年第1季美國每個月平均新增接近20萬份工作,但4、5月的月度新增數目卻大幅下滑至8萬。葉倫雖強調不應過度解讀1-2個月的數據,但坦承整體來說近期的勞動市場數據是令人失望的,FOMC將密切關注就業市場接下來的發展。

葉倫15日特別提到不能將「長期通膨預期穩定」視為理所當然的事,因為最近幾個月以來金融市場參與者的長期通膨預期數據呈現下滑。葉倫說這些變化雖然不見得跟薪資、物價有關聯,但仍值得FOMC密切關注。
葉倫再次強調聯邦基金利率目前仍處於接近零的水準,意味著如果通膨壓力意外強勁、貨幣政策可以有效因應;萬一通膨下滑、就業市場轉弱,貨幣政策能夠施展的空間就相當有限。她表示,雖然今年初源自於海外的金融市場壓力已經消退,但全球經濟依舊處於脆弱狀態,因此FOMC將持續密切關注全球經濟與金融情勢演變。
FRED網站顯示,美國「未來五年之五年期預期通膨率(5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate;簡稱:5y5y)」6月14日報1.45%、遠低於今年迄今最高點(4月28日的1.83%);2月11日報1.42%、創2009年3月10日(1.3%)以來新低。值得注意的是,在此之前只有在2007-2009年經濟衰退期間這項指標才曾低於1.70%。
2016年第1季美國生產力與2015年同期相比上揚0.7%、遠低於1948年迄今的歷史平均值(2.16%)。2009年第3季經濟復甦迄今,美國生產力成長率平均增幅僅有1.2%。
葉倫曾多次公開談論美國生產力持續低迷這個話題。MarketWatch部落格報導,葉倫5月27日在與哈佛大學經濟學教授Gregory Mankiw(小布希政府時期白宮經濟顧問委員會主席)對談時用「悽慘(miserable)」這個字來形容美國生產力成長率、直稱這種現象是相當嚴重的負面發展。
美國第1季民間非住宅固定投資季減金額達359億美元、創2009年第3季以來最大降額,連續第2個季度呈現縮減、創2008年第2季至2009年第4季以來最長縮減紀錄。
美國勞動市場狀況指數(Labor Market Conditions Index;LMCI)2016年5月報-4.8、創2009年5月(-9.0)以來新低,連續第5個月呈現負值、創2007年5月至2009年6月以來最長低迷紀錄。
LMCI被稱為「賽非農(意指重要性可與非農業就業數據相比擬)」不是沒有原因的。華盛頓郵報記者Matt O`Brien 6月8日透過《Wonkblog》部落格發表專文指出,過去25年的歷史紀錄顯示,每當LMCI連續5個月(或更久)呈現負值,FED接下來的動作都是降息、而非升息


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 17, 2016, 05:58:05 AM



Yellen Says Forces Holding Down Rates May Be Long Lasting
 Rich Miller
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June 16, 2016 — 6:26 AM MYT
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Fed Scales Back Rate Projections

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Fed chief discusses the ‘new normal’ that’s holding rates down
U.S. central bank scales back pace of projected rate rises
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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen seems to be coming around to what her one-time rival, Lawrence Summers, has been arguing for a while: Some of the forces holding down interest rates may be long-lasting and secular.
QUICKTAKE
The Fed Lifts Off
That’s reflected in a marked downgrade in rate projections released by policy makers after their meeting on Wednesday. Six of 17 now only see one rise this year, after the central bank lifted rates effectively from zero in December.

Officials also slowed the pace of expected moves in both 2017 and 2018: They now only foresee three increases in each of those years, down from the four they expected in March, according to their latest median forecast.
Yellen in the past has ascribed the low level of rates mainly to lingering headwinds from the financial crisis -- tight mortgage credit, for instance -- and suggested that they would dissipate over time.
On Wednesday, though, she also pointed to more permanent forces that could depress rates for longer, namely, slow productivity growth and aging societies, in the U.S. and throughout much of the world.
‘New Normal’
In a press conference after the Fed held policy steady, Yellen spoke of a sense that rates may be depressed by ”factors that are not going to be rapidly disappearing, but will be part of the new normal.”
Summers, who was in the running to get the Fed job before losing out to Yellen in 2013, has been contending for several years that the U.S. and other industrial countries are mired in “secular stagnation” of scant economic growth.
A key component of his argument: An excess supply of savings and a paucity of demand is depressing equilibrium interest rates in the advanced world, making it difficult for central banks to ease credit enough to lift growth and inflation.
The equilibrium, or neutral rate, is the one that balances the supply of and demand for savings in an economy. If a central bank wants to spur growth it has to cut rates below that level.
Signing On
Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said Yellen seemed to be signing on to Summers’ argument when it comes to rates but not to growth.
“I think she’s embraced the new neutral, new normal -- whatever you want to call it -- as it relates to the funds rate, but perhaps not to growth,” he said, noting that the Fed’s long-run economic forecasts for 2 percent growth were untouched.
“It’s not quite as pessimistic as Summers, but they’re definitely conceding a little that lower productivity could be here for a while,” said Feroli, who lowered his forecast for Fed hikes this year to one from two following the press conference.
In a blog posting Tuesday, former Treasury Secretary Summers likened the Fed’s actions in recent month to “Groundhog Day.” It keeps poking its head up hoping to raise interest rates only to back away in the end.
Summers, now a professor at Harvard University, has argued in the past that the Fed should not raise rates until its see the “whites” of the eyes of inflation.
On Hold
At least one Fed policy makers seems to be listening, based on the so-called dot plot of Fed officials’ rate forecasts released today. The official sees the Fed holding rates steady in 2017 and 2018 after raising them once this year.
In contrast, Yellen said many Fed policy makers expect to increase rates in the coming years as the headwinds from the financial crisis dissipate further.
She did though take note of other forces that could keep rates low for years. “There are also more long lasting or persistent factors that may be at work that are holding down the longer-run level of neutral rates,” she said.
Near Zero
Fed officials reduced their estimate of the long-run equilibrium federal funds rate to 3 percent from 3.25 percent in March, according the median forecast released on Wednesday. Yellen suggested though that for now, the neutral rate may be around zero, after taking account of inflation.
“Persistent slow growth despite a very low level of the nominal funds rate and the fact that the crisis was now seven or eight years ago has led the Fed to be more open to the idea of a new normal with lower interest rates,” said Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
The debate over the appropriate stance of monetary policy -- and in particular the level of the equilibrium interest rate now and in the future -- is taking place against an international backdrop where rates have turned negative in many countries.
The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bund, Europe’s benchmark security, fell below zero for the first time on record on Tuesday, as investors sought safe-haven assets ahead of next week’s vote by the U.K. on whether to remain in the European Union.
Yellen said the U.K. referendum was a factor in the U.S. central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady at its meeting Wednesday in Washington.
“It is a decision that could have consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets,” she said. A vote on June 23 by Britons to leave the EU “could have consequences in turn for the U.S. economic outlook,” she said.
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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 17, 2016, 05:59:14 AM



Fed's Yellen acknowledges difficulty of escaping world's low rate grip


The Federal Reserve building in Washington September 1,  2015.  REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
The Federal Reserve building in Washington September 1, 2015.
REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a news conference following the Fed’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washington, June 15, 2016. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a news conference following the Fed’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washi...
REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE +
A security guard walks in front of an image of the Federal Reserve following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washington, DC, U.S. on March 16, 2016.  REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
A security guard walks in front of an image of the Federal Reserve following the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washingt...
REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE/FILE PHOTO +
The Federal Reserve building in Washington September 1,  2015.  REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
The Federal Reserve building in Washington September 1, 2015.
REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a news conference following the Fed’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washington, June 15, 2016. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen holds a news conference following the Fed’s two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in Washi...
REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE +

X
By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Evidence that the U.S. neutral rate of interest remains stalled near zero spurred the Federal Reserve to slow its expected pace of rate hikes on Wednesday, as policymakers signaled their hands may be tied until a rebound in global demand or other forces raise that key measure of the economy’s underlying strength.

In a news conference following the Fed's latest meeting, Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank was still coming to grips with the likelihood that the neutral rate - the point at which monetary policy is neither spurring nor restraining economic growth - is stuck at a historic low and could limit the central banks room to maneuver.

In the Fed's policy debate, "an important influence is what will happen to that neutral rate," Yellen said, noting that the central bank's "base case" is that the rate should rise alongside an improving economy and as "headwinds" from the 2008-9 financial crisis fade.

But "there are long-lasting, more persistent factors that may be holding down the longer-run level of neutral rates," Yellen said.

"It could stay low for a prolonged time....All of us are in a process of constantly reevaluating where the neutral rate is going, and what you see is a downward shift over time, that more of what is causing this to be low are factors that will not be disappearing."

Policymakers nodded directly at the problem in fresh economic projections that cut median estimates of the long-run federal funds rate to 3 percent, far below the levels common in the 1990s. Since the Fed began publishing policymakers' economic projections in 2012, estimates of the long-run rate have been cut from 4.25 percent.

"There could be revisions in either direction," Yellen said. "A low neutral rate may be closer to the new normal."

HARD TO PINPOINT

Though difficult to pinpoint, estimates of the neutral rate provide a key yardstick to gauge whether a given federal funds level is stimulating or restricting the economy.

With the Fed still trying to encourage spending, investment and hiring, a low neutral rate means the Fed has less room to move before that stimulus is gone.

Fed estimates published online show little consistent movement in the neutral rate in recent years even as the labor market tightened and growth continued above trend, confounding expectations that it would move higher in an economy expanding beyond potential.

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Officials cite a variety of possible explanations, but the result is the same: until policymakers are satisfied that the neutral rate is moving higher, they face an effective cap of 2 percent or even less on the federal funds rate.

Coupled with a 2 percent inflation rate, the Fed's target, that would put the "real" federal funds rate at zero. If inflation remains below target, the ceiling on the Fed would be that much lower as well.

That is a far cry from the 3.5 to 4 percent that the Fed's policy rate has averaged since the 1990s, and means the central bank will treat each move with particular caution, current and former Fed officials say. In their policy projections on Wednesday, Fed officials slowed the pace of expected future hikes from four to three per year.

It also means the central bank would be stuck near zero, and more likely to have to return to unconventional policy in a downturn; it could also force discussion of whether to raise the inflation target in order to try to push the entire rate structure higher.

The Fed has been waylaid more than once in its rate hike plans by the state of the global economy, and held steady again on Wednesday in part because of Britain's upcoming vote on whether to leave the European Union.

But recent data and Fed discussion of the neutral rate show the more chronic influence that low global rates and weak global growth may exert on the Fed.

According to the economic model typically cited by Yellen and others in discussing the neutral rate, conditions are ripe for it to move higher and give the Fed the room it needs to raise rates.

That model, developed by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and the board's Monetary Affairs director Thomas Laubach, estimates that the inflation-adjusted size of the U.S. economy moved beyond its potential nearly two years ago, and that the positive "output gap" has been growing larger.

In general a larger output gap would produce a higher estimate of the neutral rate. However, in the time since the economy moved beyond potential in 2014, the model's estimate of the neutral rate has remained below zero in all but the first quarter of this year.

BONDS DIP TO NEGATIVE YIELDS

As the Fed contemplates when to move next, the dynamics working against it were obvious this week when the yield on Germany's 10-year bond dropped into negative territory, helping keep the spread between it and the U.S. 10-year Treasury note near a euro-era high.

That gap in risk-free yields, and the United State's general performance relative to Europe and Japan, has driven the dollar higher, curbed U.S. exports, and may have fed through to the recent hiring slowdown in the U.S. industrial sector - all factors that could help depress the neutral rate.

A move higher in U.S. target rates risks reinforcing those trends, likely leading the Fed to feel its way forward until Europe and Japan can also move from the zero lower bound - a day that may be far in the future.

"If anywhere along this path international conditions or skittishness become such that the dollar takes off and capital flows disrupt a weak world and all of that affects inflation and job gains, then we will have a real fundamental question for them to resolve," said Jon Faust, a Johns Hopkins University professor and former advisor to the Fed board.

"How hard do we push on going it alone?"

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by David Chance and Andrea Ricci)

 
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 17, 2016, 02:57:20 PM



MACQUARIE:美勞動市場有望轉強,FED拚暑假後升息
回應(0) 人氣(0) 收藏(0) 2016/06/17 14:21
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-17 14:21:35 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
聯準會(FED)周三暗示今年還不打算放棄升息計畫,根據資產管理公司Macquarie Wealth Management北美研究團隊表示,暑假結束後FED的第一件工作應該就是升息,機率比七月或十二月都高。

按照FED周三的說法,勞動市場復甦減緩,是六月升息採煞車的兩大原因之一,另一個則是下周舉行的英國脫歐公投。Macquarie分析推測往後幾個月,美國就業數據應會好轉,這將足以抵銷外部環境不確定性增加,也成為支持FED升息的主要理由。Macquarie解釋五月就業數據不佳,應是天氣與退休因素所造成。(BusinessInsider)

有鑑於此,Macquarie將九月升息的機率從先前的25%調升至45%,並同時將七月升息的機率從60%降至25%,而十二月升息的機率只有20%。至於今年完全不升息的機率則僅有10%。

長期來看,Macquarie認為FED之後將以平均每半年一碼的速度緊縮貨幣政策,預估2019年利率才有可能爬升至2%,這符合FED主席葉倫所說,低利率時間可能拉長的說法。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 21, 2016, 02:17:45 PM




Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 20, 2016 7:35 PM
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Authored by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man.com's Pater Tenebrarum),

Myths Are Worth Wondering About
Wondering is what we do, here at the Diary, especially wondering about myths. “Myths” are not necessarily untrue. They just can’t be known or proven in the way, say, that Archimedes could prove that the king’s crown was made of gold.

  437103_archimedes 

Antiquity’s most famous patent troll Archimedes shortly after his famous epiphany in the bathtub


 


The Old Testament reports on God, for example, could be literally true, symbolically or metaphorically true, or complete fantasy. Unless you get hit on the head with a rock, or an angel speaks to you from a burning bush, you can’t know for sure.

Likewise, we can’t know for sure which candidate for president would be better. Poor Donald Trump is sinking in the polls; the media says his reckless comments are catching up with him. But who knows?

We can’t see into the future – only God can. So, we make our decisions based not on facts, but on which myths (assumptions and prejudices that can’t be tested) we believe.

In newspapers, elections, and most of public life, myths are more important than provable facts. They direct trillions of dollars of spending… and set off wars in which millions are killed.

The largest demonstration in history was in India, with millions of people taking to the streets to protest the killing of cows. In short, myths are worth wondering about. The Fed says it wants 2% consumer price inflation. But there is nothing scientific about it. Is 2% better than, say, 1%? Or no inflation at all? It is myth.

Last week, the prophet Janet brought forth the expected blah-blah. Sticking her neck out, she said the Brexit vote next week “could have consequences” for the financial system. Hey, what couldn’t?

 

Yellen_cartoon_04.06.2016_large

Pronouncements from the monetary high priests have become the most important drivers of financial markets


 

Amor Fati
When you don’t want to do something, it’s not hard to find reasons not to do it. Don’t want to mow the lawn? The grass is too wet. Or it’s too late in the day. Or the lawnmower needs oil.

Don’t want to take a chance on raising rates? The British could vote to leave the European Union.

The Orioles could lose a home game. Or someone, somewhere could catch a cold on his way to work.

“Amor fati” was Nietzsche’s famous expression. Literally translated, it means “love of fate.”  It is a white shoe yearning for mud. It is a turkey looking forward to Thanksgiving. Or an investor stoically preparing for a bear market.

 

Nietzsche

Famous German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, who with advancing age increasingly began to resemble a broom.


 

We use the term to describe the grace and courage you need to meet a complex, unknowable, and uncontrollable future. We are all human, all God’s fools… and all bound for the grave. No use going there with a sour look on your face! And no use pretending it isn’t so.

 

Deeply in Debt
Cowardice has been a sub-theme in the Diary for the last week or so. The Fed provides us with an illustration. Rather than own up to the mess it has made, it hides behind a silly and superficial myth – that it can protect the economy with centrally planned  interest rates.

And now, thanks largely to its own mismanagement, the world is deep in debt, with far too many people all over the world who earn far too little income to support it.

Every loan comes with a fuse. And the world now has $200 trillion worth of debt… and plenty of matches. Brexit is just one of them. Sooner or later, we’re going to see some fire and brimstone.

Ms. Yellen pretended not to notice last Wednesday. As we guessed, she wasn’t taking any chances. What may be significant is the market’s reaction. Until now, every time the Fed has dodged fate, investors bought stocks. They expected stocks to rise, in celebration of more EZ money.

 

1-DJIA, 10 min.

DJIA, 10 minute candles…the market actually fell right after the FOMC announcement. We’re not sure that’s even legal – click to enlarge.

 



In fact, even with today's exuberant Brexit ramp, the S&P remains barely green post-FOMC (even as crude soars), and is inderperforming Gold

 

Not this time. In Wednesday’s press announcement, Janet Yellen backed off her previous commitment to gradually raise rates and instead strongly hinted that interest rates may stay depressed for a long time.

But instead of rising on the news, the Dow registered its fifth straight day of decline.

 

Myth Magic
Yes, dear reader, it looks as though the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy has finally lost its myth magic. There is now $10 trillion of government bonds trading at sub-zero yields. Corporate profits are falling. Productivity is falling.

And even with interest rates at a 5,000-year low, U.S. GDP growth has been falling for four straight quarters… and may already be running below zero. And that’s just in the U.S.

Europe is only barely limping along… with Britain possibly deserting the EU this week. Writes our old friend Rob Marstrand:

I believe the EU will fall apart over time, sooner or later and in one way or another. When it comes to investing, there will be winners and losers along the way, so it’s something that needs to be watched.
According to the Pew survey, the majority of people in Britain, Greece, France and Spain have an unfavorable opinion of the EU. And opinion in Germany and the Netherlands is only slightly in favor of the EU.
 

2-PM_2016.06.07_brexit-00

The EU gets no love anymore…

 

Taking Up the Slack
Meanwhile, China’s problems grow. While the whole world adds debt – by trying to stimulate consumer “demand” – China adds debt to stimulate “capacity,” so it can make more things for foreigners who can’t pay for them.

Officially, the Chinese central bankers have announced their own insight into amor fati. You can’t fix a problem caused by over-investment by providing more cheap investment capital, they said.

Although this sounds as though they are ready to turn away from the errors and omissions of the past, the banks keep lending and builders keep building.

 

empty

Lots of empty buildings? No problem, let’s build more!

 

Already, there is not enough aggregate demand in the whole world to absorb all that capacity, says Richard Duncan, editor of “big picture” advisory service MacroWatch.

And there’s no way local buying is going to take up the slack. The Chinese can’t afford to buy more stuff either. The average wage in the Middle Kingdom is just $8.13 a day – far too little to sustain a big increase in domestic demand.

What will happen next? What fatum is coming?

Watch this space!

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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 22, 2016, 08:59:47 AM



FED為何偏鴿?葉倫:就業、企業投資顯示內需恐轉弱
回應(0) 人氣(21) 收藏(0) 2016/06/22 08:03
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-22 08:03:05 記者 賴宏昌 報導
Thomson Reuters報導,聯準會(FED)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen;見圖)21日在美國國會作證時表示,今年內是否能夠升息關鍵可能在於就業市場有沒有辦法出現反彈。她說,過去數個月許多指標無疑顯示經濟轉好的動能出現下滑跡象,在進一步升息前美國經濟必須先觸底反彈。葉倫這番談話顯示聯準會不太可能在7月底宣布升息,因為在此之前僅有一份新的月度就業報告可以進行判讀。
共和黨準總統參選人川普(Donald Trump)先前曾說如果他當選總統,當景氣不好時、他會想辦法跟債權人協商減債。葉倫說,被世人普遍視為無風險的有價證券如果出現違約疑慮、那將會有嚴重的後果。
thehill.com報導,葉倫表示美國經濟不太可能在今年內陷入衰退。

根據FED官網發布的半年度證詞講稿,葉倫21日在參議院作證時指出,今年4、5月美國每個月平均僅新增8萬份工作、排除罷工因素不計也僅有10萬份,遠低於今年第1季的平均月增20萬份。此外,能源業以外的企業投資出乎意料之外地疲軟。葉倫認為從這裡可以看得出來美國內需面臨下行風險。
葉倫指出,部分知名經濟學家擔心過去數年的低迷生產力成長率趨勢可能還會延續下去。葉倫認為這樣的可能性的確存在。
2016年第1季美國生產力與2015年同期相比上揚0.7%、遠低於1948年迄今的歷史平均值(2.16%)。2009年第3季經濟復甦迄今,美國生產力成長率平均增幅僅有1.2%。
MarketWatch部落格報導,葉倫5月27日在與哈佛大學經濟學教授Gregory Mankiw(小布希政府時期白宮經濟顧問委員會主席)對談時用「悽慘(miserable)」這個字來形容美國生產力成長率、直稱這種現象是相當嚴重的負面發展。
葉倫關注的美國勞動市場狀況指數(Labor Market Conditions Index;LMCI)2016年5月報-4.8、創2009年5月(-9.0)以來新低,連續第5個月呈現負值、創2007年5月至2009年6月以來最長低迷紀錄。
LMCI被稱為「賽非農(意指重要性可與非農業就業數據相比擬)」不是沒有原因的。華盛頓郵報記者Matt O`Brien 6月8日透過《Wonkblog》部落格發表專文指出,過去25年的歷史紀錄顯示,每當LMCI連續5個月(或更久)呈現負值,FED接下來的動作都是降息、而非升息。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 22, 2016, 09:06:18 AM



Fed cautious on rates due to Brexit, U.S. hiring slowdown -Yellen
By Reuters / Reuters   | June 22, 2016 : 8:21 AM MYT   
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WASHINGTON (June 22): The Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates this year may hinge on a rebound in hiring that would convince policymakers the U.S. economy is not faltering, Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers on Tuesday.

In testimony before Congress that expressed general optimism about the economy and played down the risk of a recession, Yellen nevertheless said the Fed will be cautious about interest rate increases until it is clear the job market is holding up.

Immediate risks, like the potential fallout from Britain's June 23 vote on whether to leave the European Union, could darken the U.S. economic outlook, she told the Senate Banking Committee, as could a downturn in productivity growth that may prove a permanent drag on the economy.

"Without a doubt, in the last several months a number of different metrics suggest ... a loss of momentum in terms of the pace of improvement," Yellen said. "We believe that will turn around, we expect it to turn around, but we are taking a cautious approach and watching very carefully to make sure that that expectation is borne out before we proceed to raise interest rates further."

Her comments suggest the U.S. central bank is unlikely to raise rates at its next policy meeting in late July, since it will only have one additional monthly employment report in hand by that time.

They also demonstrate how a new sense of uncertainty has taken root as Fed policymakers come to grips with a broadening realization that the economy's potential appears to be weaker than previously thought.

In a generally civil 2-1/2-hour hearing, Yellen was questioned less about those long-run economic issues and more about the immediate economic and political concerns of panel members: why agricultural prices were so low, why there were so many white men in charge of the Fed's regional reserve banks, and why there was so much income inequality.

Asked about presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's suggestion the United States could lower its national debt by buying back securities at a discount, Yellen said any move that smacks of a default for a security generally viewed by the world as risk-free would have "severe" consequences.

Her comments largely tracked the Fed's policy statement last week and the press conference that followed.

"It's a rehash. The underlying message is a continuation of the trend that the Fed is moving toward a more cautious stance to support this economic expansion with the fragility of the economic backdrop," said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income in Newark, New Jersey.

U.S. Treasury yields had risen to session highs by the end of Yellen's testimony, while stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. U.S. rates futures implied traders saw a 12 percent chance of the Fed raising rates in July, little changed from Monday. The dollar was stronger against a basket of currencies.

BREXIT RISKS

There was more explicit attention during Yellen's testimony to the possible implications of the "Brexit" vote, which she said could have "significant repercussions."

Asked if Britain's departure from the EU could trigger a recession in the United States, Yellen said: "I don't think that is the most likely case, but we just don't really know what will happen and we will have to watch very carefully."

Although the outcome of the British referendum will be known this week, the jobs issue may take longer to sort out.

Fed officials have said they expected U.S. job growth to slow from the average 200,000 per month typically seen during the post-financial crisis recovery. But the drop to an average of 80,000 in April and May was particularly sharp and put the economy below the level of job creation the Fed considers necessary to accommodate new labor force entrants.

In her testimony, Yellen called the slowdown likely a "transitory" phenomenon.

But concerns the hiring slowdown may be longer-lasting, coupled with a lowered sense of U.S. economic potential, mean the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is likely to remain low "for some time" Yellen said.

Current Fed policymakers' projections foresee two rate increases this year and three each in 2017 and 2018, a slower pace from what was forecast in March.

Yellen will appear before a House committee on Wednesday to complete her semi-annual testimony before Congress. - Reuter
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 25, 2016, 09:36:06 AM



Fed Credibility Collapses - Rate-Cut Now More Likely For Next Year

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Jun 24, 2016 3:40 PM
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Just when you thought The Fed's credibility could not drop any further... it does. For the first time since the financial crisis, the market now sees a greater probability of a rate cut than a rate hike... for the next year.



 

As rate-hike odds collapse...




 


In fact, "bets" on an eventual dip into NIRP have surged to record highs, and we suspect even higher today...



[the chart shows the cumulative open interest in par calls on eurodollar futures contracts that expire in 2016 and 2017 - basically options on short-term interest rates with a strike price of zero, such that they pay out if the Fed takes rates negative
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 25, 2016, 09:54:40 AM



Brexit vote means Fed stays put
Reuters
9 hours ago

 Yellen testifies before the Senate Banking Committee at Capitol Hill in Washington
.
View photo
Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen testifies before the Senate Banking Committee at Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 21, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria -

By Ann Saphir

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SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Britain's vote to leave the European Union has thrown financial markets into turmoil and means the U.S. Federal Reserve's ambitions for two rate rises this year have been placed on hold.

The Fed on Friday sought to reassure markets that it would provide liquidity as needed using swap lines in place with other central banks, including the Bank of England as the pound touched a 1985 low against the dollar, world stocks lost more than $2 trillion of their value, and investors rushed for the safety of U.S. Treasuries, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a four-year low.

Traders of U.S.-interest rate futures even began to price in a small chance of a Fed rate cut, and now see little chance of any rate hike until the end of next year.

"One can forget about rate hikes in the near term," said Thomas Costerg, New York-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. "What I'm worried about is that the Brexit vote could be the straw that breaks the back of the U.S. growth picture."

Market volatility in the past year, a stronger U.S. dollar in the past couple of years that has crimped exporters' profits, low oil prices and inflation, and weaker economic growth in U.S. trading partners have kept Fed monetary policy on hold at least twice in the past year.

An interview with Kansas City Fed President Esther George published Friday but conducted before the Brexit outcome was known suggested she still believes U.S. rates need to rise soon.

But comments from other Fed officials in the run-up to the referendum suggest they worried about exactly the kinds of shocks that rippled through financial markets on Friday.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen had warned prior to the vote that Brexit could "negatively affect financial conditions and the U.S. economic outlook".

The question now for the Fed and for central banks globally is how long the shock lasts and how far it spreads. Many investors and economists are worried that the exit vote could stall Europe's faltering growth.

"It depends on how bad things would get and for how long they would stay bad," said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro LLC and a former Fed staffer. "The problem with trying to handicap outcomes here is that there are too many unknowable unknowns."

A British departure from the now 28-member EU will deprive it of its second-biggest economy and one of the most liberal states, economically.

GLOBAL SENSITIVITIES

Joe Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, had thought the Fed would raise rates once this year.

Brexit, however, will throw the UK into recession, and crimp U.S. exports, payrolls expansion and economic growth by "the equivalent of at least a 25 basis point hike" in Fed interest rates. "It could mean no rate hikes this year," Gagnon said.

If the slowdown deals a severe blow to Europe, which in Gagnon's view is a less likely outcome, the Fed could be forced to delay interest rate rises further.

Global events have repeatedly stayed the hand of the Yellen Fed, which is already loath to do anything to curtail what has been a modest recovery from a deep recession in 2008.

In late 2015 the Federal Reserve deferred an expected interest rate rise after global markets swooned in response to an unanticipated slowdown in China's economy.

Earlier this year, Fed officials cited tighter financial conditions brought on by further heightened worries about China as another reason for caution.

Still, few economists expect the United States to tip into recession as a result of this week's vote. And if growth in U.S. employment, wages, inflation and overall economic output continues, the Fed will need to raise interest rates at some point, even though the full impact of Brexit won't be known for years.

"(Fed policymakers) can’t just put policy on hold for several years – that’s not going to happen," Gagnon said.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 25, 2016, 08:23:54 PM



Moran Questions Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Strength of Economic Recovery
JUNE 25, 2016 BY HAYS POST 0 COMMENTS

Screen Shot 2016-06-23 at 8.45.57 PMWASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), member of the Senate Banking Committee, this week questioned Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen about the value of the U.S. dollar, its impact on commodity pricing, and the strength of our economic recovery.  Watch the exchange here

“Kansans aren’t seeing our economy recover,” said Sen. Moran. “In my conversations with Kansans, I haven’t talked to many who see their economic future as brighter. They don’t feel more secure in their jobs. They’re worried about having opportunities for their kids when they graduate from school and about whether or not their kids can pay back their loans. They’re worried they can’t save for their own retirement or for healthcare emergencies. The sense of an economic recovery is far from being felt universally.”

In her testimony and again in response to Sen. Moran’s questioning about economic strength and the value of our dollar, specifically in relation to prices for agricultural commodities, Chairwoman Yellen admitted that business investment outside the energy sector has been “surprisingly weak.” She cited “slow growth and a less rapid increase in the labor force” as possible explanations for generally overall weak investment spending.

Sen. Moran continued, “Chairwoman Yellen’s testimony helps us understand the Federal Reserve’s thinking on how to strengthen our economy. It’s clear that when business owners are hit with regulation after regulation, when the Department of Labor ignores productivity and free market wages, and when potential entrepreneurs can’t see a path to success, Americans will remain out of work and worried about their futures.”
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 25, 2016, 09:03:37 PM



How Brexit Is Bailing Out The Fed
Jun. 24, 2016 4:00 PM ET| Includes: DIA, IEF, IWM, QQQ, SPY, UUP
Josh Arnold   Josh ArnoldFollow(5,778 followers)
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Summary

The Fed has stuck to its two-hike guidance for this year.

But the Brexit is causing a massive shock across the world.

The Fed can use this to both save face and revise its guidance, something that wasn't possible prior.



Credit: Marketslant

As it turns out, the thing that everyone was afraid of but then decided wouldn't happen, well, did. Coverage of the now-infamous "Brexit" is all over the place and I'm not here to cover it, the vote, the reasons why or not or anything else about the actual event. However, it is having a profound impact on US interest rates which are of keen interest to me and surely many of you as it relates to financials. I've been a bull on financials for a long time (it gets harder and harder to admit that as time goes on) because I've believed the narrative coming from the Fed on hikes. However, as we all know, that hasn't worked out particularly well. At this point, it is far more fashionable to hate the banks than to like them despite any valuation metric that suggests otherwise and after the Brexit vote and the sheer panic that has ensued, the banks are getting absolutely crushed.

I've gone on record saying that I have thought the Fed would still raise rates twice this year because that is what they've said they would do. That sounds daft but I think the Fed has lost credibility with markets and although they say they don't care about that, they clearly do; anyone that suggests otherwise should have his head examined. Given that, my theory was that the Fed would stubbornly stick to its revised two-hike guidance from earlier this year after it was roundly humiliated off of its short-lived four-hike guidance. That lasted about a minute and given that the Fed has repeatedly punted in the past few years on hikes, I thought that they would be so looking forward to actually following their own guidance that they would go ahead and do it. This would be congruent with what happened to cause the orphan rate hike that took place in a total vacuum last December, if you recall
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 26, 2016, 05:45:07 AM



Fed on Hold Until 2017
Brexit prompts strategists to dial back expectations for interest rate hikes.

By AMEY STONE
June 25, 2016
For conservative investors who own a chunk of government bonds, the Brexit vote was a market shock with upside.

Safe-harbor Treasuries soared as investors worldwide recoiled in shock that British citizens had voted to exit the European Union. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note (yields move inversely to prices) fell to a...

Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 26, 2016, 08:42:34 AM




JUN 25, 2016 @ 04:43 PM 1,719 VIEWS The Little Black Book of Billionaire Secrets
Brexit Makes That Federal Reserve Rate Rise Recede Into The Future





Tim Worstall ,   CONTRIBUTOR
I have opinions about economics, finance and public policy. 

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
One of the odder effects of last Thursday’s vote by my fellow Britons to leave the European Union (Yay!) is to delay any future Federal Reserve interest rate rise in the United States. This isn’t quite what you would expect from a standing start analysis of the global economy. Britain no longer gets ruled by Brussels, why should this change American interest rates? But a side effect of this is that both the pound and the euro have fallen in value against the US dollar. Just as this is stimulatory to the British and European economies this is (marginally) contractionary for the US economy. Thus there’s little point, even it is contra-indicated, that the Fed should apply yet more contractionary monetary policy by raising interest rates. And thus the reason that a political decision thousands of miles away leads to an economic decision in the US.

As is said:

Market mayhem and the strengthening dollar following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union make it increasingly likely the Federal Reserve will delay plans to raise short-term interest rates.

Officials just a few weeks ago were looking at a move by their July 26-27 policy meeting. That now looks highly unlikely and a move at subsequent meetings becomes less likely, too, at least until it becomes clearer how events in Europe will affect the U.S. economic outlook.

The market mayhem part isn’t the important bit. That European markets go wild really isn’t something that the Federal Reserve is supposed to worry about all that much. It is, after all, part of the US system of governance, not the European nor global:

Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union may tie the U.S. Federal Reserve to near zero interest rates for far longer than expected, according to new research indicating the U.S. central bank is now tightly bound to international economic conditions.

Over the past 18 months the Fed has blinked more than once, and refrained from raising interest rates when global market volatility has darkened the economic outlook, but the Fed has still maintained that U.S. monetary policy could ultimately “diverge” toward higher rates even in a weakened world economy.

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Again, it’s not market volatility that is the point. It’s the movement of the dollar:

The severity of the fallout will become clear over three time horizons. On Friday, the Fed said it’s ready to act with its global central bank partners to shore up liquidity in markets, if needed. In the medium term, the post-Brexit market turmoil could delay a rate increase, while in the longer term, secondhand effects could bleed into U.S.

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The point is, quite simply, that a rise in US interest rates is contractionary on the US economy. It is also true that a rise in the US dollar exchange rate is contractionary on the US economy. These do not have equal effects of course. A 1% rise (that is, a rise of 1%, not a 1% of current interest rates rise) does not have the same effect as a 1% rise in the exchange rate. But they are both moves in the same direction.

An interest rate rise will , other things being equal (or ceteris paribus as the jargon goes) reduce investment in the US just at the same time as it increases savings. This will reduce aggregate demand. The exchange rate works differently, imports become cheaper, exports more expensive and these two also reduce aggregate demand. The size of the effects from an equal percentage change are different but they both work in that same direction.

So, if the exchange rate is already rising then one doesn’t raise the interest rate in order to achieve the desired or required amount of reduction of demand. This is before we consider the idea that a higher US interest rate will lead, again ceteris paribus, to more capital entering the US and thus pushing that exchange rate higher again.

This really isn’t about market mania, nor volatility nor even risk. It’s just standard macroeconomics. If the currency rate is rising then that is already contractionary upon the economy. And thus that other contractionary policy, raising interest rates, should be put to one side for the moment.

Brexit makes the Fed rate rise later and, when it comes, possibly lower. Rightly so.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 26, 2016, 10:14:45 AM



Goldman Sees A UK Recession, Shocked By A Fed "Tightening Cycle Unlike Any In Modern History"

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Jun 25, 2016 6:27 PM
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Starting off the year, Goldman was prodigiously optimistic, bullish... and dead wrong. Since then the bank has cut its rate hike forecast from 4 to 3 to 2 and, now in the aftermath of Brexit, it has just the excuse to say that "our forecasted path for the funds rate now looks quite unlike any tightening cycle in modern Fed history—one increase, followed by an extended pause, followed by gradual but steady increases over the subsequent three years." Which, quite simply, is another way for Goldman to say it was dead wrong. Again.

Here is how Goldman throws in the towel on the whole rate hike thing.

Tweaking Forecasts Following British Referendum
 
The decision of voters in the United Kingdom to exit the European Union will begin a lengthy process of negotiations with uncertain effects for both the UK and the rest of Western Europe. The trade linkages between Britain and the US are relatively modest (exports to the UK amount to about 0.7% of US GDP), so even in the event of a meaningful downturn, these spillovers are unlikely to derail US growth. Financial linkages are much tighter, however, and here we have already witnessed meaningful effects: our Financial Conditions Index (FCI) tightened by about 30 basis points (bp) today—enough to subtract around 0.2pp from GDP growth over the next year, if the FCI changes prove persistent.
 
As a result of the aftershocks of the “leave” vote on US financial conditions, we are downgrading our US growth forecasts for the second half of this year. We now expect GDP growth to average 2.0% in 2H 2016, down from 2.25% previously (see table below). The reduction reflects lower forecasts for business fixed investment spending in the months ahead. At this point we have not changed our forecasts for the unemployment rate or core inflation: we still see the unemployment rate averaging 4.6% in Q4, and core PCE inflation ending the year at +1.7%
 
A lower baseline outline for the economy as well as risk management considerations are likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for longer than we previously expected. Before the British referendum, we saw a 25% chance that the FOMC would raise rates at its July meeting, and a 40% chance that it would hike in September. We now see the odds of a hike next month as less than 5%—it would take a sea change in financial conditions and exceptionally strong economic data for the Fed to act so soon—and the probability of a hike in September of just 25%. Beyond September, we would assign about a 5% probability to a hike in November, and 40% to a hike in December. In other words, we still think the FOMC will raise rates this year, but probably not before December. Our modal expectation has therefore shifted from two rate hikes in 2016 to just one.
 
With these revisions, our forecasted path for the funds rate now looks quite unlike any tightening cycle in modern Fed history—one increase, followed by an extended pause, followed by gradual but steady increases over the subsequent three years. Although this pattern would be unusual, we continue to see a series of rate increases as more likely than the path for policy rates implied by market pricing. With the economy close to full employment and inflation firming, there will likely come a point at which the desire to support financial conditions and risk management concerns will no longer hold sway.
 

And in a follow up note released today, Goldman just cut its 2017 UK GDP forecast from 2.0% to 0.2%, as well as predicting a UK recession next year
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 26, 2016, 02:45:54 PM



It is Not the UK’s ‘Leave’ Vote that Derailed the Fed’s Plans
By Paul Ebeling on June 25, 2016No Comment
It is Not the UK’s ‘Leave’ Vote that Derailed the Fed’s Plans
3
It is Not the UK’s ‘Leave’ Vote that Derailed the Fed’s Plans

Weaker-than-expected real growth in US jobs in recent months had forced US monetary policy makers to put off a rate hike at their meeting June meeting.

The data due early next month on June US NFP’s could help clear up doubts about the strength of the labor market, the political and economic consequences of Britain’s exit from the EU will take months/years to unfold.

Financial markets spoke in the hours since the ‘leave’ outcome. US stock  index futures dove and investors rushed for the safety of Gold and US Treasuries, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year T-Note below 1.5%, nearly a 4-year low, and the USD rose by more than 3% at one stage, the most in a day since Y 1978.

Interest rate futures markets rallied so hard that they have erased any probability of an increase in the Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate for both this year, the next and perhaps the next.

They are pricing a possibility that the federal funds target rate may be lower in December than it is now, which is at 0.38% on average.

The following is the full text of a statement issued by the US Fed Friday following the UK’s vote to leave the EU, as ollows:

“The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union. The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines with central banks, as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for the U.S. economy.”

The Fed’s outlook suggests it will opt for caution.

A Brexit could “negatively affect financial conditions and the US economic outlook,” US Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said a few days before the referendum.

“Financial conditions could tighten,” said Fed Governor Jerome Powell said the day before the vote, adding that “global developments, global weakness … are really important for the setting of U.S. monetary policy.”

Neither gave any indication how big an impact the decision might have, and the Fed has no plans for an emergency meeting in the event of a leave vote, Ms. Yellen said this week.

The British departure from the EU deprives the 28-member EU of its 2nd-biggest economy behind Germany, and 1 of its 2 Key military powers, sending political shockwaves across the Continent.

Global events have  stayed the plans of the Yellen Fed, which will not/cannot to do anything to curtail the anemic recovery from a deep recession in Y 2008.

Have a terrific weekend
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 26, 2016, 03:00:02 PM



美联储按兵不动让市场脱敏/张敬伟
103点看 2016年6月25日

观宇箴言●张敬伟
察哈尔学会研究员
美联储6月份依然不加息,而且调低了2016年美国经济增长的预期,GDP增速从2.2%下调至2%。

美联储按兵不动,不是美联储刻意玩货币政策权术,而是市场的不景气。对美国市场言,美国经济增速放缓,是美联储不敢轻易加息的关键要素。虽然美国就业率依然维持较高水平,但是,非农数据堪忧——5月份非就业人口仅增长3.8万,远不及预期的16万,使美联储加息预期变成不可能。


外部因素,美联储观照到了英国脱欧公投对美国市场造成的负面影响。美联储必须耐着性子等看英国公投的结果。

担心日元贬值

美联储没有提到的风险要素还包括,日本和欧洲货币政策的放水趋势依然,尤其担心日元在升值压力之下,日本央行存在着操控货币贬值的可能性。这在日本G7峰会的公报中,已发出警惕全球货币竞争性贬值的信号。

2016年已经时间过半,年内加息时间表依然模糊。未来,美联储加息除了看GPD增长、通胀率、就业率、非农数据以及消费数据等核心经济指标外,更受国内政治的滋扰。奥兰多枪击案对美国社会的冲击,除了美国人心理上的恐惧,也会造成美国民意的变化。

这对于善于操弄民粹主义的共和党候选人特朗普而言,成为政治投机的契机。他已就此要求奥巴马总统下台,并要求希拉丽退选。他极力利用枪击案的冲击作用,向处于悲痛期的美国人灌输他移民政策的正确性。这固然很令人不齿,但对特朗普的竞选,是很有效的策略手段。

联想到特朗普之前对耶伦发出的不敬之语——他若上台,耶伦下台。理智的美国人和冷静的外部市场,对特朗普赢得大选的焦虑,自然会对美国市场趋势形成负面传导。

美联储只能给出模糊的渐进加息答案。而且,美联储更为焦虑的是美国市场的表现。除了对一些核心经济指标缺乏信心,美联储对于大选政治对美国市场的干预也难以预估。

最笃定的预判是,如果美国经济争气,譬如GDP增速反弹、核心通胀率稳定维持在2%左右、波动的非农数据企稳;美国大选水落石出——美联储12月份加息更令人信服。

不加息有利中美关系

美联储模糊的加息时间表和路线图,凸显美国经济复苏的势头依然微弱,这对全球经济言不是好消息。

但辩证言,美联储不加息对新兴市场也是利好。一方面,美联储加息预期多次“放空”,让新兴市场缓释了市场焦虑;另一方面,新兴市场也免于市场恐慌带来的资本外流和经济波动。更要者,美联储不加息促使中美两大经济体利益攸关的关系变得更为正面。

一是中国市场避免了去年年底美联储加息带来的股市、汇市的双重紊乱,而这种紊乱也对美国市场形成了反作用力。美联储不加息,中国股市、汇市维持相对稳定,中美两国可以充分发挥稳定全球经济的“双核”作用。

在全球经济不明朗的现实下,全球第一、第二经济体的因市良性互动,十分必要。而且,在日本和欧洲货币政策宽松到负利率的情势下,中美货币政策的相向趋稳,对全球货币政策也起到了稳定中和作用。

从刚刚结束的中美战略与经济对话可以看出,中美强化了在货币政策方面的协调。这说明,后危机时代的颓势,要求主要经济体在货币政策和经济治理方面加强合作,共担责任。

单元美联储的按兵不动让全球市场依然脱敏。

(作者为中国人民大学重阳金融研究院客座研究员)


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 26, 2016, 04:05:23 PM



Peter Schiff: Brexit is a gift for Janet Yellen's Fed policy
Brian Price   | @PriceCNBC
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With Britain's decision to leave the European Union, one of Wall Street's most closely followed bears says that Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen should send the Brexit campaign leaders a gift basket.

The U.K.'s decision sent global markets reeling in its aftermath, hiking volatility and injecting uncertainty into the outlook for the world's economy. For those reasons, a growing number Wall Street watchers think the Fed's timetable to gradually hike interest rates have been severely curtailed, if not taken off the table altogether.

The Fed's willingness to begin pulling back on crisis era policy was already in doubt. "Now, Janet Yellen can blame her failure to raise rates on Brexit," said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital on CNBC's "Trading Nation" this week.

"She could even use this as an excuse to cut rates back to zero and launch QE4," the bearish investor said, referring to a fourth round of quantitative easing, the massive bond buying used by the Fed to try and spur growth.

"As far as Janet Yellen is concerned, the British have given her the gift that keeps on giving," concluded Schiff.
A relentless critic of the central bank, Schiff used Britain's referendum as a new reason to blast U.S. financial leaders. He said without Brexit, the Fed would have to admit that domestic economic weakness is the true reason for leaving rates near zero.

"For months, the corner that the Fed has painted itself into has gotten smaller and smaller," explained Schiff in his recent coverage. "Sadly, Fed officials are discovering that their supply of credibility is not infinite."

Markets suffered a harrowing trading session on Friday, with the Dow plunged over 600 points to a 10-month low, and Germany DAX closing down nearly 7 percent, its worst day since 2008. Additionally, the STOXX dropped 14 percent for its worst day since 1987 while markets in Spain and Italy both sank by 7 percent.
Schiff believes that weak markets will continue to fuel the Fed's resistance to tightening monetary policy. He said that when critics call out the Fed's inaction, the Fed can simply point to uncertainty in the U.K., the world's fifth largest economy.

'An excuse for years'

Leader of UKIP and Vote Leave campaign Nigel Farage
Mary Turner | Getty Images
Leader of UKIP and Vote Leave campaign Nigel Farage
"Since the process is bound to be long, messy and fraught with uncertainties this will be a handy excuse that the Fed will be able to rely on for years," said Schiff, an outspoken libertarian who previously advised Ron Paul's 2008 presidential campaign.

From here, Schiff is fearful that low rates will distort global currencies. On Friday, the pound touched a 30-year low versus the dollar while the U.S. Dollar Index traded up by over 2 percent.

"Given that there is already much concern that the dollar is valued too highly against most currencies, any surge in the dollar that results from Brexit will have to be fought by the Federal Reserve through lower interest rates and quantitative easing," Schiff added.

Greenspan's fears

Alan Greenspan echoed similarly worrisome sentiments on CNBC on Friday's "Squawk Box" and called Friday brutal trading the worst he's ever seen.

"This is just the tip of the iceberg," warned Greenspan, who served as Federal Reserve Chairman from 1987 to 2006. "This problem that's causing the British problem is far more widespread. Fundamentally, what we are looking at is a massive slowing in the rate of real incomes across the whole European spectrum."
Schiff added that gaps between the working class anti-establishment and the political and economic establishment are likely to fuel further upheaval in the world economy.

At this point in time, a global disconnect seems to be widening, he said.

"The people revolted," said Schiff. "After having been misled for so many years by the very elites who urged them to remain, the rank and file asserted themselves and voted with their feet."
Schiff argued the public is rebelling against policies backed by the political class, such as deficit spending, government regulation were key for a recovery post-2008. Furthermore, Schiff says that the rise of insurgents like Donald Trump illustrate a deep distrust of the establishment that helped lead to Britain's departure.
With cracks in the EU now exposed, troubled nations like Spain, Italy and Portugal could soon followed Britain's example, some say. With this, time will tell if the European Union's days are numbered, which could further help the Fed in delaying rate hikes.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 27, 2016, 08:09:21 PM



Can Fed Swap Lines Prevent A Market Crash This Week?
Posted on June 26, 2016 by The Doc   Leave a comment   536 views
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Home » Headlines » Finance News » Can Fed Swap Lines Prevent A Market Crash This Week?


panicI don’t believe we will see a massive crash this coming week.  We’re not going to get anything like an October, 1987 style downdraft.
We are going lower, however…

Silver Rounds SD Bullion

“The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth.” – Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman

TND Exclusive:  Eric Dubin

I don’t believe we will see a massive crash this coming week.  We’re not going to get anything like an October, 1987 style downdraft.  We are going lower, however, and seeing another 5% bleed out of the S&P 500 next week is roughly the level of carnage I’m expecting.

But it’s going to come with a heck of a lot of volatility, and many people will view downside voltility as proof that the BIG ONE is upon us.  This downdraft is part of the overall “rolling crash” that we are undergoing that will extend through this year and into next year.

Euro Salvador Dali

My assessment about the coming week is based on what I’m seeing with market management efforts led by central bankers.  I see substantial anecdotal evidence in multiple markets that stocks, ETFs and futures and options were being bought by the powers that be to save the markets.  The magnitude of these flows is impressive, at least, as suggested by the impact to targeted assets.

I’m not able to prove that the Fed, BOJ, Bank of England and the ECB have fired-up credit swap lines with each other.  But once the fireworks started to go off, post Brexit victory, the Fed actually disclosed to the media that swap lines were at the ready.  Friday morning, the Fed released the following statement:

The Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets, in cooperation with other central banks, following the results of the U.K. referendum on membership in the European Union.

The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines with central banks, as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for the U.S. economy.

That sort of disclosure is unusual, because it wasn’t all that long ago that the Fed refused to discuss using swap lines.  The Fed has taken a chapter from the public relations industry;  since central bankers have been outed for using swap lines when they wanted to hide that fact back in the 2008-2010 period, why not “get in front of a crisis” and make the most of market participant awareness that central bankers have a big red button they now push anytime flinging a few trillion around is deemed necessary (that’s trillions, with a “t”).  The intention was to let it be known that the authorities are going to try to kick the snot out of short sellers while supporting equity markets.

Here’s just one example of PPT footprints.  Look at the insane level of buying of Deutsche Bank’s ADRs at and through the NYSE open.  No profit seeking investor or trader would be doing that in the face of what was going on with Deutsche Bank shares crashing on European stock exchanges.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 28, 2016, 08:11:10 AM



The Fed’s Market Mover Keeps Changing His Mind
James Bullard has developed an unrivaled reputation for shifting his stance on whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates
By MICHAEL S. DERBY
Updated June 27, 2016 2:05 p.m. ET
In a world of hawks and doves, U.S. central banker James Bullard has made it quite clear which one he is. And then, on a number of occasions, he has made it equally evident that he is the other
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 28, 2016, 10:21:54 AM



Brexit效應不容小覷!葉倫取消ECB會議回美國坐鎮
回應(0) 人氣(53) 收藏(0) 2016/06/28 09:24
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-28 09:24:25 記者 賴宏昌 報導
MarketWatch報導,歐洲央行(ECB)網站更新後的活動頁面顯示,美國聯準會(FED)主席葉倫(Janet Yellen;見圖)已取消出席ECB每年在葡萄牙Sintra所舉行的央行論壇。在此之前,英國央行(ECB)總裁卡尼(Mark Carney)也已決定不出席由他與葉倫、ECB總裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)所組成的政策小組會議。
葉倫6月15日表示,在非常不尋常、極端的狀況下,FED可能會考慮動用直升機撒錢來避免美國經濟陷入嚴重衰退。葉倫的看法與FED前主席柏南克(Ben Bernanke)類似。擁有「直升機班(Helicopter Ben)」綽號的柏南克日前在部落格發表專文時指出,在特定極端狀況(嚴重短缺的總體需求、貨幣政策工具箱空無一物、立法機構不願舉債實施擴張財政政策)下應考慮動用直升機撒錢。
英國金融時報報導,葉倫將在6月28日飛回華盛頓。她與卡尼、德拉吉原本預計在29日同台出席ECB所舉辦的年度盛會。

英國央行前總裁金恩(Mervyn King)27日在接受BBC專訪時表示,歐元區受英國脫歐(Brexit)的衝擊將大於英國本身,因為公投結果顯示歐洲根本沒有意願進一步進行經濟整合。
FED 24日發表新聞稿表示,英國公投結果公布後已和其他國家央行攜手密切關注全球金融市場發展。
FED準備在必要時透過現有與他國央行簽訂的貨幣互換額度提供美元流動性、以期紓解全球籌資市場的壓力,進而降低對美國經濟的負面衝擊。
CNBC報導,葉倫6月15日在聯邦公開市場操作委員會(FOMC)利率會議會後記者會上表示,英國脫歐公投不確定性因素是影響當天決策的因素之一。
XQ全球贏家報價系統顯示,英鎊兌美元27日重貶3.39%至1.3212;盤中最低跌至1.3119、創1985年以來最低紀錄


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on June 29, 2016, 11:28:19 AM



美國通膨預期09年來最低!FED理事:Brexit衝擊難料
回應(0) 人氣(117) 收藏(0) 2016/06/29 10:08
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-29 10:08:06 記者 賴宏昌 報導
聯準會(FED)理事Jerome H. Powell(見圖)28日在芝加哥發表演說時指出,英國脫歐(Brexit)公投恐將創造出新的經濟逆風、令全球風險進一步向下移動。Powell認為現階段還無法評估英國脫歐的潛在衝擊。
Powell提到,美國實質中性(不鬆、不緊)利率目前預估約為零、實質短期利率約-1.25%,因此貨幣政策目前實際上僅提供溫和刺激效果。他坦承4、5月就業數據明顯轉弱的現象的確值得警惕。
Powell也提到FED主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)相當關心的生產力偏低問題。他指出,2011年以來的5年期間美國生產力平均僅年增0.5%、創二次世界大戰以來最低5年平均年增紀錄。

生產力主要是由勞動力技能、工具(設備、軟體)以及總要素生產力(TFP)來決定。Powell認為,金融危機以來美國生產力增長乏力似乎是源自於企業投資低迷以及TFP增長偏低。
MarketWatch 21日報導,葉倫呼籲國會想辦法提振當前低迷的勞動生產力。2007年迄今美國勞動生產力平均年增1.2%、遠低於2000-2007年的2.6%。
根據FED官網發布的半年度證詞講稿,葉倫6月21日在參議院作證時指出,今年4、5月美國每個月平均僅新增8萬份工作、排除罷工因素不計也僅有10萬份,遠低於今年第1季的平均月增20萬份。此外,能源業以外的企業投資出乎意料之外地疲軟。葉倫認為從這裡可以看得出來美國內需面臨下行風險。
FED偏愛的通膨指標「個人消費支出(PCE)平減指數」4月年增1.1%。核心PCE 4月年增率持平於1.6%。FED自2012年起明確定義「穩定物價」為PCE須年增2%,自2012年5月起核心PCE年增率就不曾觸及2.0%(註:連續第48個月)。
FRED網站顯示,美國「未來五年之五年期預期通膨率(5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate;簡稱:5y5y)」6月27日報1.41%、平2009年3月10日(1.3%)以來最低紀錄。值得注意的是,在此之前只有在2007-2009年經濟衰退期間這項指標才曾低於1.70%


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 02, 2016, 08:02:03 PM



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Yellen’s Legacy: The Greater Depression
Vern GowdieJuly 2, 2016
Reddit
Worried couple using their laptop to pay their bills at home in the living room
What a week. Brexit has come and gone. Markets have settled. The world is not coming to an end…at least not yet anyway.

The Brits defied the polls and bookmakers, opting out of the failing European experiment. Good on them, I say.

The world has not come to a grinding halt. People will still trade. There are many bruised egos in the corridors of power, but life will go on.

The initial reaction from markets was predictable…volatility. Gold powered up to US$1,358 per ounce. Share markets beat a hasty retreat. The British pound was trampled in the rush to the exit. Bond markets were the safe haven for liquidated capital…pushing interest rates even lower.

US billionaire (and investor extraordinaire) George Soros tells us Brexit is the beginning of the end.

In my experience, the well telegraphed events are very rarely the major turning points for markets. It’s the stuff that comes out of left field — like a Lehman Brothers failure — that really shakes markets out of their stupor. These events usually elicit a response along the lines of ‘What the hell…we didn’t seeing that coming…’ Then the proverbial hits the fan.

The reality is that a struggling Europe needs the UK slightly more than the UK needs Europe. They will cobble together a working relationship for both their sakes. The pre-voting doomsday predictions from politicians and central bankers will be revealed for what they were — self-serving hype to keep the insiders’ club together.

For all their bluster on how they’ll huff and puff and blow the Brits house down, Merkel, Junger and Draghi know Europe needs to trade with the well-heeled Brits. They’re not about to put bullet holes in the feet of Europe; or at least I don’t think they will.

The central banks will marshal their stimulus forces to support markets…again. They’ll lead with the predictable big guns of money printing and lower interest rates. Although the Japanese may ‘surprise’ us and reveal a more unorthodox stimulatory weapon. After all, Japan is the frontrunner on how to (mis)manage a deflationary economy. Anything new and creative from Japan is destined to be in our future…unless of course the whole thing blows up beforehand.

And that gets us to the big picture: The increasing debt toxicity in the system.

The real issue has not gone away — and that is the absolute dependency the global economy has on debt to generate GDP growth. More and more debt is required to generate economic growth.

According to McKinsey Global Institute, global debt levels have increased more than US$60 trillion since 2008. Whereas, over the same period, global GDP is up only US$15 trillion (from US$63 trillion to US$78 trillion).

It now requires around US$4 of debt to create US$1 of growth. Whereas 40 years ago, US$1.50 of debt generated US$1 of growth.

Exponential debt is not a sustainable trajectory. However, the powers that be obviously think otherwise. Which is why the cost of debt keeps sinking lower.

Negative interest rates are a clear indication of how wacky the whole system has become in its frenetic and irrational need to inject increasingly larger doses of debt into its veins to remain functional.

Without a continued and rapid accumulation of debt, the whole system is under threat of shutdown. That is not hyperbolic scaremongering; it’s a fact.

A debt to growth ratio of $4 to $1 is a compounding nightmare.

A 2% growth rate on current global GDP (US$78 trillion) equates to US$1.6 trillion. Achieving this growth target requires US$6.4 trillion (four to one) in newly created debt.

In 20 years’ time — assuming a constant 2% growth rate — global GDP would compound to US$116 trillion. Maintaining a 2% growth rate on that number would require around US$10 trillion in new debt to be added.

More debt…on more debt…on more debt.

Trees do not grow to the sky
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 03, 2016, 03:44:19 PM



美联储副主席暗示
本月不升息
132点看 2016年7月3日
美联储副主席费雪。
美联储副主席费雪。

(纽约3日综合电)全球股市上周大涨后,英国意外脱欧的震撼似乎暂随各国央行有望扩大刺激措施而消散,市场本周关注焦点重回美国,包括6月就业报告与美联储上次会议纪录等。美联储副主席费雪在最新访谈中提到还在评估脱欧的影响、将采取“观望”的态度,暗示7月不会升息。


投资人“过度避险”

《经济日报》报道,美股标普500指数1日连续第四天收红,四天共涨3.2%,为九个月来最大四日涨幅;俗称美股恐慌指数的VIX,周线暴跌43%,是历来最深跌幅。VIX前一周还大涨33%,市场震荡之剧烈可见一斑,也反映出投资人“过度避险”。

费雪在CNBC受访时表示,关于英国脱欧对美国的影响,美联储在本月底会议前将知道更多。他坦承知道英国公投结果后的第一个反应是“相当震惊”,但英国脱欧对美国贸易不会有立即的影响。这是他3月7日来,首度公开就经济与货币政策发言。

他还说,美国经济自惨淡的5月就业报告发布后,“表现相当不错”,但不能只凭“一个半月的数据就想拼凑出整个状况,尽管“状况看起来比过去好得多”。被问及市场认为美联储今年不会再升息时,费雪表示“我们必须等等看情况如何发展”,暗示本月可能不会升息。

瑞信首席经济学家史威尼预估,美联储下次升息时间为明年5月,而非原估的今年12月,且明年也只会升息两次。本周美联储将公布上次会议纪录,史威尼提醒要仔细观察美联储对英国脱欧的“事前”观点,及对就业成长趋缓、通膨预期下滑的看法。

预定8日公布的6月新增非农就业人口,预估会回升到18万人,5月仅3.8万人。

新闻来源:联合财经网


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 03, 2016, 03:45:33 PM



英脱欧影响言之过早
费希尔:美无意负利率
42点看 2016年7月3日
(纽约2日讯)美联储副主席费希尔表示,目前说英国脱欧是否影响美国经济展望还太早,必须等待和观察该事件如何影响美国及全球经济。

他接受CNBC采访时表说,5月非农报告后,美国经济很不错。对于美国前景展望来说,非农报告比英国脱欧更重要,美联储没计划实施负利率。


“美联储不得不等待和观察英国脱欧的影响。对于英国来说,英国脱欧是非常重大的事件,对于欧洲来说也很重要。”

他表示,美国与英国的直接贸易,不太会受到英国脱欧的影响。但是英国脱欧对英国和欧洲来说,会有很多后续事宜,这是美联储需要考虑的。

费希尔担忧的问题包括:英国经济是否能迅速地适应新的转变,以及其它欧盟国家是否会效仿英国。

在被问及美联储是否考虑像其它主要央行那样实施负利率,他称不太可能。

他表示,央行官员们不会对任何事情说“永不”,但是如果说有一件事情非常不想做的话,那么就是实施负利率。美联储没有计划实施负利率,也会尽可能避免走到这一步。

Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 05, 2016, 08:27:33 AM



Fed Will Tighten Before Rate Hike: S&P 500 Risk
Jul. 4.16 | About: SPDR S&P (SPY) Get Alerts
Elazar Advisors, LLC   Elazar Advisors, LLCFollow(2,383 followers)
Growth, medium-term horizon, short-term horizon
Send Message|www.elazarllc.com
Summary

The Fed specifically cites their high reserves as a risk to inflation.

The Fed said their inflation mandate is in plain site.

Opinions are great but markets need a catalyst. Houston we have a catalyst.

The Fed led by near mandate inflation will likely begin lowering reserves which will hit markets.

We show here that the Fed's plan is to reduce reserves BEFORE they NEED to raise rates, which is why we expect that now.



(Picture: We love the Fed's official crest.)

Summary: We expect Fed reserve balances (which correlate to market prices) to start moving lower which will hit markets. We believe the Fed is currently near their inflation mandate, which will be the catalyst.

On the Fed website, they ask themselves an important question.

The Fed's Public Question To Themselves:

"How will the Federal Reserve ensure that the size of its balance sheet won't lead to excessive inflation?"

Their Return Answer:

"The Committee has the tools it needs to tighten monetary policy at the appropriate time."

Investors Too Focused On Fed "Rate" Moves

We will now show the Fed will likely use other tools besides rates to tighten first (we expect that to hit markets (NYSEARCA:SPY)).

Please watch.

What are the "tools it needs?" Rates, yes. But they have other tools too like the reserve balances themselves that ballooned after the 2008 crash.

For this understanding, we have to agree on an assumption. Our assumption is we listen very carefully to what the Fed says, how it's said and the order it is said. Fair? Especially from the Fed and especially on a planned public website with huge swaths of time to decide each word and their order.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 06, 2016, 06:35:22 PM



Brexit and other uncertainties mean Fed can be patient: Fed's Dudley
15 Hours Ago
Reuters
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Demonstrators take part in a protest aimed at showing London's solidarity with the European Union following the recent EU referendum, inTrafalgar Square, central London, Britain June 28, 2016.
Dylan Martinez | Reuters
Demonstrators take part in a protest aimed at showing London's solidarity with the European Union following the recent EU referendum, inTrafalgar Square, central London, Britain June 28, 2016.
The Federal Reserve can be patient on raising interest rates due to low inflation and uncertainties over prospects for the U.S. economy, including Britain's vote to leave the European Union, New York Fed President William Dudley said on Tuesday.

"If you strip out the energy sector, inflation is still a little below what we would like... so that allows us to be patient in terms of letting the economy run with accommodative monetary policy in place," Dudley said. "If inflation were higher ... we could probably be a little more aggressive in terms of monetary policy.

"With uncertainties about the outlook and inflation being lower than desired, it allows us to be a little more patient," he said, adding the so-called Brexit vote is among the "clouds on the horizon" for the U.S. economy
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 07, 2016, 05:47:46 AM



Interest rates: Why the Fed isn't going to get what it wants
Out of three things the Federal Reserve says it needs to raise rates, one is virtually guaranteed not to happen any time soon.
Jon Marino   | @JonMarino
1 Hour Ago
CNBC.com
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Janet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve.   Fed Minutes: Prudent to wait for Brexit vote
3 Hours Ago|02:09
It's hurry-up-and-wait time at the Federal Reserve.

U.S. central bank officials need three things in order to substantively consider hiking interest rates for the first time in 2016, they explained in meeting minutes issued Wednesday: confirmation that growth is picking up, jobs gains that are sufficient, and inflation that's rising to a target pegged by several economists at 2 percent.

Two of these things are iffy, in terms of their immediate prospects, and one is downright unlikely. U.S. inflation flagged in the wake of the global financial crisis and has been well short of 2 percent. Economic data and jobs numbers may not match Fed expectations either. It doesn't seem as if the Fed can raise rates, at least not in its meeting later this month, and probably not at all this year.

At least, that's what the market sentiment is.

Janet Yellen
Getty Images
Janet Yellen
The market has almost totally written off the notion that rates will rise. The CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks market sentiment about the probability of a Federal Open Market Committee rate hike, effectively resigned itself to the expectation that there will be no July hike. But market watchers have come around to realize that monetary policy crafted to steer U.S. banks away from collapse have become the norm — and the lingering issue is if, or when, the FOMC can depart from the new normal.

"We don't have a full-blown banking crisis now in the U.S.," said S&P Global Market Intelligence banks analyst Erik Oja.

Another key focal point for the Fed — economic data — will be coming in the form of spending, manufacturing and other important points in the next few weeks and leading up to September, which is the next time after July that the FOMC will be able to consider hiking rates. FedWatch data suggest that a September hike is almost as improbable as one later this month; but economists like Deutsche Bank's Joseph LaVorgna say they're sticking to their expectation of one hike later this year. A few more rocky jobs reports might scotch that altogether.

And then there's jobs: May's job figures were sufficient to give FOMC members some pause about what declining unemployment figures mean for their rate decision, although Fed members said Wednesday they were reluctant to base any decisions on one report alone. That makes this Friday's jobs figures even more crucial, regardless of what the Fed gleans from them. But it's certain that Fed leadership isn't bullish on the U.S. economy right now — Tarullo made that abundantly clear in his Wednesday speech.

Tarullo told attendees of a Wall Street Journal event on Wednesday that he needs to be "more convinced" on inflation before the Fed moves forward with a rate hike. With a goal of 2 percent, the FOMC — and markets — may be in for a long wait.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 07, 2016, 05:51:00 AM



The Federal Reserve is confusing investors, Bill Gross says
Michelle Fox   | @MFoxCNBC
58 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
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Investors are confused, Bill Gross says   Investors are confused, Bill Gross says
1 Hour Ago|00:52
The Federal Reserve's communication practices are confusing investors, noted bond investor Bill Gross said Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee on Wednesday released minutes from its June meeting, which showed policymakers decided to hold off hiking interest rates until they had a handle on the implications of the Brexit vote.

Several participants also expressed concerns about the committee's communications and whether it was being fully effective in informing the public.

Gross agreed.

Bill Gross
Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Bill Gross
"Investors become confused when they look at the green dots as high as they are and hear from others that suggest reliance on old standard models," the manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund said on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

"I think ultimately what the Fed really wants to do is keep the interest rate low and perhaps keep curve as positive as possible, because 10-year rates and 30-year rates at these levels are not conducive for economic health for many financial institutions like banks and insurance companies."

In a note to investors Wednesday, Gross said the contribution of money velocity to GDP growth is coming to an end and may even be creating negative growth thanks to yields that are near zero and negative.

"Our credit-based financial system is sputtering, and risk assets are reflecting that reality even if most players (including central banks) have little clue as to how the game is played," he said in his latest Investment Outlook.

Combined, the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have created $12 trillion of quantitative easing, Gross told "Power Lunch."

"Theoretically, that should be enough money to provide prosperity across the globe. It hasn't taken," he said.

That's because for one, the private sector has been subject to regulation. Also, many borrowers don't want to borrow despite low interest rates and many banks don't want to lend based upon the perceived risks of the economy going forward, he explained.

That also means that investors should now worry about recouping their money.

"When money is so overpriced, when interest rates so low and negative, when stocks … are artificially high, then it is time to worry about the return of your money as opposed to the return on your money."

— Reuters contributed to this report
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 09, 2016, 05:42:34 PM



U.S. labor market nearing full strength, but Fed seen wanting more
Reuters
12 hours ago

 
(Adds Reuters poll)

Related Stories

U.S. labour market nearing full strength, but Fed seen wanting more Reuters
U.S. payrolls seen rebounding in June in boost to economy Reuters
Divided Fed silent in June on timing of next rate hike MarketWatch
Fed minutes show uncertainties about job slowdown and Brexit Associated Press
[$$] Fed Minutes: Officials Divided on Rate Path Amid Uncertain Economic Outlook The Wall Street Journal
By Ann Saphir

SAN FRANCISCO, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. employers have been adding enough jobs over the last six months to put the economy on track to full employment by the end of this year, but that prospect alone is unlikely to get the Federal Reserve to step on the brakes with interest-rate hikes.

A team of researchers at the Chicago Fed, headed by Dan Aaronson, estimated in April that the U.S. economy was about a million jobs shy of the Fed's full employment goal.

June's outsize jobs gain, reported Friday, lifts the average monthly jobs increase over the past 6 months to 172,000. While that's a step down from the 200,000 or more jobs added monthly last year, it still well outpaces the 50,000 new jobs a month needed to accommodate population growth, based on Aaronson's estimate. That puts the economy on pace to reach full employment by December.

But Fed officials have already suggested that uncertainty over the global impact of Britain's intended withdrawal from the European Union will keep them on policy hold for the time being.

Wall Street's top banks unanimously expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at their next two meetings in July and September and are almost evenly split over whether there will be a rate rise by year end, a Reuters poll on Friday showed.

Stubbornly low inflation, and hints that inflation expectations have dropped, also has policymakers inclined to wait. The Fed targets 2-percent inflation but, while underlying measures of inflation have firmed in recent months, most measures suggest it still has some ways to go.

"I want to be more convinced that the underlying rate of inflation is around 2 percent," Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said in Washington this week.

The 12-month average of the Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE inflation rate, which some Fed officials follow as a measure of underlying inflation, registered 1.8 percent in May.

Measures of inflation expectations, seen as key to future actual inflation, have fallen. A market measure of bond investors' 10-year inflation outlook, known as the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation breakeven rate, fell to 1.45 percent earlier this week, down from a recent peak of 1.8 percent on April 29.

Friday's jobs report offered little cheer on the inflation front, with hourly wages rising only 2 cents in June, far less than could be expected if labor markets were tightening enough to begin pushing upwards on overall prices.

"We'd like to see a little more inflation," New York Fed President William Dudley said on Tuesday when speaking with employers and bankers in Binghamton, New York. "But we don't want inflation without wage gains."

History shows that the Fed has typically allowed the unemployment rate to dip below what is seen as a sustainable level during expansions. This would allow the labor market to tighten further and could provide the extra oomph needed to lift prices higher.

Traders are betting as much. Even after the strong June jobs report they see a less-than-even chance of even one rate hike before next June, based on futures tied to the Fed's policy rate.

Forecasts from Fed officials also suggest history will repeat. Unemployment ticked up to 4.9 percent in June, Friday's report showed. Fed forecasts from last month show policymakers expect unemployment to be below that level, which they see as sustainable in the long run, until 2018.

(With reporting by Jonathan Spicer, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Richard Leong and Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 10, 2016, 04:30:09 PM



2016-07-10 14:52
美国缘何再三推迟执行“沃尔克规则”?
美国联邦储备委员会日前宣布,将“沃尔克规则”中有关限制银行机构投资对冲基金和私募股权基金的规定暂缓执行一年。这是美联储在其法定授权范围内第三次、也是最后一次延长“沃尔克规则”的过渡期。

(图:法新社)
(美国‧华盛顿10日讯)美国联邦储备委员会日前宣布,将“沃尔克规则”中有关限制银行机构投资对冲基金和私募股权基金的规定暂缓执行一年。这是美联储在其法定授权范围内第三次、也是最后一次延长“沃尔克规则”的过渡期。这是美国华尔街与监管机构长期博弈妥协的结果,也折射出金融危机后美国在维护金融体系稳定、促进经济复苏与保持金融竞争力之间谨慎寻求平衡的艰难。

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鋻于银行机构过度投机是造成2008年金融危机的重要原因之一,前美联储主席保罗.沃尔克在2009年担任奥巴马经济复苏顾问委员会主席期间,提出一系列禁止银行及其附属机构从事自营交易和其他投机性交易活动的提议,被统称为“沃尔克规则”。这些提议经过修改,成为后来旨在改革美国金融监管体系的《多德-弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法》(简称《多德-弗兰克法》)的核心条款。这份法案于2010年7月获美国国会通过,被认为是20世纪30年代以来美国最为严厉的金融监管改革。

简而言之,“沃尔克规则”就是要禁止银行机构使用自有资金投资营利,但可以豁免做市交易和对冲交易,其实质是在银行机构的日常业务和华尔街投机交易之间划清界限,分离享受联邦政府存款保险的商业银行与影子银行体系,促使商业银行回归吸收存款、发放贷款的传统信贷仲介功能,显著减少投机和套利业务,避免将客户存款和整体金融体系置于危险境地,使纳税人被迫为救助华尔街埋单。

但由于“沃尔克规则”会削弱银行机构的重要利润来源并可能对市场流动性造成影响,遭到华尔街的强烈反对。

根据《多德-弗兰克法》的规定,“沃尔克规则”原计划于2012年7月21日生效,同时给予银行机构两年的过渡期,到2014年7月以前满足相应的监管要求;但直到2013年12月,美联储和其他金融监管机构才联合公布“沃尔克规则”的最终版本,完成相关规则的制定。

为给予银行机构更多时间适应“沃尔克规则”的监管要求,美联储于2013年底同意暂缓执行限制银行机构从事自营交易及投资对冲基金和私募股权基金的规定,将“沃尔克规则”的过渡期延长一年至2015年7月。根据《多德-弗兰克法》的规定,美联储有权在符合立法目标和不损害公众利益的前提下延长“沃尔克规则”的过渡期,每次可延长一年,总共延期不超过3年。

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早在“沃尔克规则”生效前,不少美国银行机构已开始关闭自营交易业务,但要按规定退出对冲基金和私募股权基金的大量投资业务则要花费更长时间。金融危机前,美国银行机构曾大举投资各项基金,而“沃尔克规则”规定,一家银行对任何单只基金的投资不得超过基金资产规模的3%,且总投资额不得超过该银行一级资本的3%。

为保证银行有序剥离投资基金的业务和防止市场混乱,在美国证券业和金融市场协会(SIFMA)等机构的游说下,美联储于2014年底宣布给予银行机构额外一年的宽限时间至2016年7月以满足“沃尔克规则”对基金投资的规定,但限制银行机构自营交易的规定必须于2015年7月生效。

今年7月,美联储宣布给予银行机构最后一年的宽限时间来出售在对冲基金和私募股权基金的投资业务。这意味着,“沃尔克规则”最终将于2017年7月21日全面实施,那时距离《多德-弗兰克法》获得国会批准已过去七年。这也从一个侧面反映出,金融危机后美国落实金融监管改革的纠结与艰难。

一方面,华尔街仍在积极游说和施压美国政府取消和放松某些金融监管规定,美国监管机构在听取华尔街意见的同时,也在慢慢落实和学习金融监管新规的影响,希望这些新规可以起到维护美国金融体系稳定的作用,但不会对华尔街金融机构的盈利能力、美国企业的融资成本和美国经济复苏产生太大影响。

另一方面,美国也不希望在金融监管改革方面走得太快,担心“单边突进”会削弱美国金融业的竞争力。例如,“沃尔克规则”花了很大篇幅要求银行制定内部合规计划以保证该项规则的执行,大大提高了银行的运营成本,在其他国家没有同步执行“沃尔克规则”的背景下,可能导致更多国际金融机构将部份业务转移到欧洲和其他地区,这会削弱美国金融业的竞争力。

“沃尔克规则”最终将如何全面落实以及将对美国金融业产生什么影响仍有待观察,正在进行的2016年美国总统大选带来了新的不确定性。众议院金融服务委员会主席、共和党议员杰布.亨萨林6月份已提出一项以推翻“沃尔克规则”为核心的放松金融监管改革的草案,可能会被纳入共和党的金融改革议程。如果共和党赢得11月美国总统大选,同时继续掌控参众两院多数席位,美国金融监管改革存在重新调整甚至退步的可能性。(新华社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.07.10
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 10, 2016, 08:10:10 PM



2016-07-10 19:11
联储局今年升息无望
英国公投脱欧引发的金融余震一波接一波。
英国公投脱欧引发的金融余震一波接一波。

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最新一波反映在英国商业地产市场上。多家英国地产基金暂停交易,引发恐慌再度来袭,英镑一举跌破1.28美元,创1985年以来新低。

美联储局决策亦受影响,其6月政策会议记录暗示,将会维持利率不变直至厘清英国退欧公投所产生的影响。金融市场已经排除了美联储今年升息的可能性,但避险需求料推动美元未来一年上涨。

另一边厢,澳洲联邦选举结果仍不明朗,标普下调该国主权评级展望至负面,警告可能在两年内调降债信评等。澳洲央行周二放弃行动机会,等待月底的通胀数据。

展望本周,英国、加拿大、韩国和马来西亚央行将公布政策决议,还有多位美联储局官员发表讲话。数据方面,中国将公布通膨、贸易、工业生产等多项数据,其他重要数据包括欧美主要国家的通胀率。

英镑创新低

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英镑上周开局略企稳喘息,但之后走势再度转差,上周三一度跌穿1.28美元,最低跌至1.2798美元,创1985年以来新低,因市场愈发担忧英国退欧对金融市场以及全球经济产生更广泛的影响。

路透访查的超过60位外汇策略师平均预计,英镑将进一步下滑,到年底挫至1.27美元。不过份析师给出的预估值跨度很大。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧外汇利率‧2016.07.10
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 12, 2016, 07:12:05 AM



Gold Prices, Bonds Ignoring Hawkish Fed Talk

Monday July 11, 2016 12:50
(Kitco News) - Gold prices and bond markets are ignoring the latest comments from Federal Reserve policy hawk Esther George.

George, president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, said, at a conference in Lake Ozark, Missouri, that interest rates are too low given the progress that the U.S. Economy has made. Fed-Esther George

"Keeping rates too low can create risks," she said at the event.

Although she agreed to keep interest rates on hold at the June meeting, George reiterated Monday that she supports a gradual rise in interest rates.


She noted that after a weak start to the year, growth in the second quarter shows the economy is bouncing back and that the country is close to full employment.

Although George supports higher interest rates, she didn’t provide any guidance as to when interest rates will be moving higher.

George’s comments had no impact on gold prices, which are trading in slightly positive territory; August gold futures last traded at $1,359 an ounce, relatively flat on the day.

Her comments also haven’t impacted interest rate expectations. CME 30-Day Fed Fund futures are still pricing in a 0% chance of a rate hike in July and only a 6% chance of a hike in September and November.

The highest probably of a rate hike are not seen until June of 2017, where markets are pricing in only a 32.3% chance of a 25 basis point hike.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 14, 2016, 08:20:53 AM



ed's Mester Says Helicopter Money "The Next Step" In US Monetary Policy

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Jul 13, 2016 1:24 PM
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Think "helicopter money" is/will be confined only to Japan, which has been sending conflicting trial balloons about this unprecedented next step in monetary policy for the past two days (first Japan's Senkei reported that the government will be adopting “helicopter money” followed by a government spokesman denying the report, then followed by a separate Bloomberg report about a 10T yen stimulus plan, the concluding with Abe advisor Koici Hamada saying that "boosting fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time would be effective" in Japan)? Think again.

Speaking overnight in Australia, the Fed's Loretta Mester said "helicopter money" could be considered to stimulate America's economy if conventional monetary policy fails.



As Australia's ABC reports, Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and a member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), signalled direct payments to households and  businesses to stoke spending was an option if interest rate cuts and quantitative easing fail.


"We're always assessing tools that we could use," Mester told the ABC's AM program. "In the US we've done quantitative easing and I think that's proven to be useful.


"So it's my view that [helicopter money] would be sort of the next step if we ever found ourselves in a situation where we wanted to be more accommodative.

Mester's qualified support for the use of "helicopter money" comes amid expectations that the Bank of Japan is poised to unleash a major fiscal stimulus package of at least 10 trillion yen ($130 billion) to kickstart its flat-lining economy.

The surprising comments from a Fed hawk, come on the heels of two other Fed presidents hinting that more QE could be used as additional "ammo" should the US economy relapse back into recession, and as major central banks consider unconventional policy tools in a world of slowing growth, low inflation and record low interest rates. Mester said that concerns about the Brexit vote were a consideration in June when the Federal Reserve left rates at between 0.25 and 0.5 per cent, a consideration  While the immediate impact of Brexit rattled financial markets, Mester said the Fed would be looking to medium and long term fallout.

"Between now and our next meeting and future meetings we are all going to be assessing what the impact of that decision will mean in terms of economic conditions and how they effect the medium term outlook for the US economy," she explained.

Ironically, the same Mester said she believes there are risks in keeping US interest rates too low for too long. "For the US, if we overstay our welcome at zero then of course there would be financial stability risks," Dr Mester acknowledged. So her "solution" is not just more easing, but outright monetary paradrops.

"I don't think we're behind the curve in the US on interest rates, but it's something we have to assess going forward and where the risk balance is."

With the next FOMC rate setting meeting scheduled for July 28, Dr Mester declined to be drawn on whether there would be another US rate rise this year. However, she signalled her support for moving rates higher and that rising employment and inflation meant "a gradual increasing pace in interest rates is appropriate."

"I've been one of the more positive members in terms of the US economy. I do think we've made significant progress on the employment part of our mandate and the recent inflation data has been encouraging," Dr Mester said.

"But of course the timing of the next and the ultimate slope of that gradual pace will depend on how the risks around the outlook evolve."

And if all else fails, there is always Bernanke's helicopter, first in Japan then coming to the US.

Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 16, 2016, 11:15:36 AM



Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Jul 15, 2016 4:35 PM
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Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Janet Yellen, in my opinion, is about to make a critical mistake. She is not going to raise rates in July.

Why is this a mistake? Simple. No matter when you think there will be an economic recession, there will eventually be one. As I have repeatedly stated, the biggest problem for the Federal Reserve has been getting caught at the “zero bound” of interest rates during the onset of a recessionary contraction. Such a combination of events would leave the Fed without a very valuable monetary policy tool.

Come July, Janet Yellen and the FOMC are going to once again “punt” hiking interest rates in favor of waiting for “global instability” due to the “Brexit” to subside. However, as stated this is a mistake for a couple of reasons.

First, with the markets making new all-time highs, there is a “price” cushion available for the markets to absorb a rate hike without breaking important downside support as shown below.


SP500-MarketUpdate-071516

Secondly, with Central Banks globally flooding the markets with liquidity, as discussed yesterday, a further “shock absorber” is currently engaged in softening the impact of a rate hike.

“But, for now, a rash of global Central Banks continue to support asset prices by increasing accommodative policies either through additional reductions in interest rates or direct injections of liquidity. As Matt King from Citi recently noted:
‘It has been a surge in net global central bank asset purchases to their highest level since 2013.’”
Central_bank-liquidity

Lastly, the economy is likely going to show a bit of “strength” in upcoming reports, with slightly stronger inflationary pressures. This pickup in economic strength will be another inventory restocking cycle following several months of weakness. As has been in the past, it will be transient and that strength will evaporate as quickly as it came.

If I was Janet Yellen, I would hike interest rates by .50 bps immediately in a surprise announcement and use the price and Central Bank liquidity cushions to soften the blow. This would move the Fed towards its goal of reloading its primary policy tool while there is some ability to temporarily control the outcome of the rate hike.


But that is just me. She won’t do it.

Instead, she will pass on hiking rates at the upcoming meeting with promises of rate hikes to come before the end of the year. Unfortunately, for her, this is the “trap.”


The liquidity will dry up, the inventory restocking cycle will end, and the next “crisis” will be on the horizon with Ms. Yellen remaining stuck near the “zero bound.”

The past opportunities to “normalize” interest rate policy have come and gone. This opportunity will likely pass also and, as always, the Fed will realize far too late they are trapped. But by then, it won’t matter much to investors, or what’s left of them, anyway.

For now, here is your reading list for the weekend.

“The stock market is like a wife. When you come home you never know if you will be greeted with a kiss, or hit with a frying pan.”  – C. Vern Myers
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 20, 2016, 11:23:29 AM



2016-07-20 10:25
联储局传声筒:若经济数据稳‧美国最快9月加息
《华尔街日报》记者、获称储局“传声筒”的Jon Hilsenrath指,若美国经济数据表现稳定,美国联储最快会于9月加息。
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(美国‧纽约20日讯)《华尔街日报》记者、获称储局“传声筒”的Jon Hilsenrath指,若美国经济数据表现稳定,美国联储最快会于9月加息。

Jon Hilsenrath指,鉴于金融市场在英国公投退欧后已逐渐稳定,美联储官员正在为年内加息寻求更多线索;据指,不少美联储官员公开表态,指他们对加息可更有耐心,故推算本月28日FOMC会议将维持利率不变。(香港明报)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.07.20
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 24, 2016, 06:46:25 PM



 0 0 0 New
Indecisive Fed expected to again hold rates steady
AFP | July 24, 2016
federal-reserveWASHINGTON: In 1890, the psychologist William James wrote that there was “no more miserable human being than one in whom nothing is habitual but indecision.”
Indecision is certainly not the habit of Federal Reserve policy makers. But as a divided Fed gathers next week to consider interest rates, they may yet again revise positions that have repeatedly shifted since December.
Most observers do not expect the Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets monetary policy, to raise the crucial federal funds rate when they meet on Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington.
“I think it’s very plausible you’ll see zero” change, said Dean Baker, co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Policy makers do not want to surprise markets, he added.
“The last thing on earth that they want to do is a rate hike that isn’t anticipated.”
For markets, the last eight months have still been an emotional roller coaster.
In December, the Fed increased rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
The decision drew a line under post-financial crisis rate policies, a time of easy money when the Fed also expanded its balance sheet by trillions in order to nurse the economy back to health.
It was also a show of confidence in the US recovery — confidence that would soon coincide with nagging doubt.
Repeated reverses

In the short time since the start of “policy normalization,” the Fed’s data-driven approach to monetary policy has been buffeted by the changing winds of political developments and wavering economic indices.
In January, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said 2016 could see three to four rate increases.
But the following month, Chair Janet Yellen said conditions were worsening and even raised the unlikely possibility of reversing course and cutting rates.
The end of May found her saying that a rate hike would “probably” be appropriate in the “coming months.”
Yet three weeks later, the FOMC split, with some members calling for a rate hike even though the committee ultimately decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.25-0.50 percent.
Britain’s looming June 23 referendum on whether to leave the European Union was an important factor in keeping rates as they were, Yellen said.
Since then, Britain shocked the world by voting to exit the EU, sparking fresh turbulence in markets and causing the International Monetary Fund to downgrade global growth forecasts by a tenth of a percentage point through next year.
The disagreements in June could reflect the FOMC’s fraught attempts to read economic data, like job creation numbers that have swung sharply the past two months.
Some FOMC members believe continued low rates may foster price bubbles and over-leveraged investments, or that delaying a rate hike now may force the Fed to bump rates up abruptly down the line, delivering a shock to the system.
Fed governor Daniel Tarullo told The Wall Street Journal this month that he does not see either scenario as a pressing threat.
According to Tim Duy, senior director of the Oregon Economic Forum, the Fed has focused on rate policy to the exclusion of another tool — balance sheet policy — which could help it provide financial stability in a period of persistently low interest rates and low inflation.
By selling some of its longer-term securities, the Fed could drive up rates and broaden the yield curve — the spread between the rates on short- and longer-term securities.
Doing so would effectively be the reverse of the policy of the past seven years which aimed at recovering from the Great Recession.
“This whole discussion assumes the Fed will find it necessary to tighten policy,” Duy wrote in an email. “When or whether that is really true is another issue.”
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 27, 2016, 08:18:01 AM



Fed may edge closer to rate hike
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
1 Hour Ago
CNBC.com
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The Fed could sound slightly more upbeat about the economy after its meeting Wednesday, and that could be enough to reinforce Wall Street's growing view that a rate hike is coming in December.

What the market is hoping to hear in the Fed's post-meeting statement Wednesday is how it now views Brexit and its impact on the world economy. The U.K. economy has already shown some signs of strain following the June 23 vote to exit the European Union, but U.S. data has only gotten stronger.

That's important since Fed officials cited Brexit as one of the reasons why they did not hike interest rates in June, along with the surprising weakness in May's jobs report. The jobs market has since bounced back with June's 287,000 nonfarm payrolls.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
"We've got record levels of equities. We have volatility that's settled down. There's not much concern about contagion through financial institutions. The 10-year Treasury has backed up a bit. There seems to be a settling comfort that while conditions in the U.K. are not normal, it's not likely to produce much carryover here. That has the potential to influence the timing of the next Fed move. A lot of us are looking for any diagnosis of that situation," said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust.

There is no expectation for a rate hike Wednesday, but the market odds for a September rate hike have risen to nearly 30 percent on a spate of recent data. That includes Tuesday's new home sales for June, which grew at the best pace since early 2008.

This follows a string of better than expected indicators, such as retail sales for June and the employment report. Traders have been tracking a move up in the widely watched Citigroup economic surprise index for several weeks now, and that has been signaling the Fed could move to hike rates this year after all.

Following the Brexit vote, expectations in the Fed funds futures market were at a low point, where the market bets were even pointing to a rate cut in December and no rate hike for next year. As of Tuesday, expectations turned much higher, to a near 30 percent chance of a hike in September and a 49 percent chance for December.

"I think they at least need to put the rhetoric out there that a hike is on the table. My sense is their line of thinking before Brexit has been restored. That would mean there's at least one hike on the table this year for them," said Jack Ablin, CIO at BMO Private Bank.

The Fed may not tweak the language in its statement too much or put any new emphasis on timing. Robert Tipp, Prudential Financial head of global bonds and foreign exchange, said the Fed will also not want to trigger market volatility or a move higher in the dollar that could hurt the U.S. economy, in anticipation of a rate hike.

"I think they're going to want to try to open the door for rate hikes later in the year. It's a delicate balancing act. They don't want to sound so grim about the outlook that would lead people to believe the Fed knows something the rest of us don't," he said. "At the same time, they need to exude enough optimism to make the case that a hike is something they could get away with, but in the best interest of everyone."

The Fed is also preparing to swim upstream against a group of central banks that are expected to keep easing. The Bank of Japan this week is expected to take more action, including ETF purchases, and the Bank of England said it could ease in August while the European Central Bank may move in September.

"I think the Fed is probably not altogether happy in sensing that equity markets around the world are trading largely on expectations that no central bank will have the courage to exercise policy any time soon. We're back to the Greenspan put," Tannenbaum said.

Tipp said while he sees slightly less than a 50/50 chance of a 2016 hike, it's more likely that it will be December rather than September.

"December is much more likely than September. I think by just leaving the door cracked open to hiking interest rates, they'll be trying to keep their options open," he said. "In all likelihood, they're probably expecting European data led by the U.K. to tip over in the next couple of months," he said. "I think optimistically they would see U.S. growth powering right through and Europe getting less worse than feared."

Some analysts believe there could be market volatility around the November presidential election, and that's another reason the December meeting would be more likely.

Some Fed watchers said there could be better opportunities than the meeting statement to find out what the Fed was thinking. Fed Chair Janet Yellen should be at the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of next month, and that should be a good forum if she wants to tweak the message, since more data will be available.

"They could come up with other ways to make it sound like they're more confident. I think the statement is going to sound a little less dire, but I'm not sure it's going to sound so strong," said Michael Hanson, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The minutes matter more."

Besides the 2 p.m. release of the Fed statement, there are durable goods orders at 8:30 am. and pending home sales at 10 a.m.

Earnings are expected in the morning from Boeing, Coca-Cola, Deutsche Bank, GlaxoSmithKline, Comcast, Mondelez, Fiat Chrysler, Nissan, Norfolk Southern, Northrop Grumman, Dr. Pepper Snapple, Six Flags, Anthem, State Street and Nintendo.

After the bell, results are expected from Facebook, Amgen, Marriott, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Whole Foods, Groupon, The Cheesecake Factory, GoPro and Pioneer Natural Resources
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on July 28, 2016, 10:20:29 AM



美联储维持基准利率不变
对9月升息保持开放
283点看 2016年7月28日
美联储今年只剩下3场例会,随着近来经济数据好转,美联储似仍未放弃在9月升息的可能性。图为美联储主席叶伦。
美联储今年只剩下3场例会,随着近来经济数据好转,美联储似仍未放弃在9月升息的可能性。图为美联储主席叶伦。

(纽约28日讯)美联储于大马时间周四凌晨2时宣布,维持基准利率不变于0.25%到0.5%,一如市场预期,但也在声明中示意对9月升息选项仍保持开放。


美联储在决策声明中指出,美国经济面临的风险已受抑制,劳动市场也日趋紧俏,暗示情势已更有利于升息。

市场认为,美联储的立场转趋鹰派,美股应声挫跌,相较于Fed发布决策声明前的游走平盘,标普500指数跌0.3%至2,163点,美元指数也小升0.1%至97.242。

联邦公开市场操作(FOMC)发布的决策声明表示:“经济展望的近期风险已逐渐消除。”FOMC也表示,家庭支出“已强劲成长”,同时企业投资“始终疲软”,美联储也重申,预期通膨中期将升至2%的目标。

FOMC也重申,预期“经济情势将以保证只会逐步调升联邦资金利率的方式好转”,决策声明并未明确指涉下次可能升息的时间点。

新闻来源:综合报道


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on August 01, 2016, 11:56:41 AM



New York Fed President Dudley says Federal Reserve may hike interest rates faster than the market expects
Leslie Shaffer   | @LeslieShaffer1
42 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
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The market shouldn't be ruling out the possibility the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates again this year, William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said on Monday.

"Market expectations, to my eye, derived from federal funds futures prices, which price in no more than one 25 basis-point rate hike through the end of 2017, … appear to be too complacent," he told a conference of central bankers and financial regulators on the Indonesian island of Bali.

Dudley said he expected the U.S. economy to grow around 2 percent annualized over the next 18 months, boosted by improved consumption.

"If the upcoming information validates my view of the outlook, then U.S. monetary policy will need to move at a faster pace than implied by futures prices to a more neutral posture as the labor market tightens further and U.S. inflation rises," Dudley said.

Additionally, Dudley noted that the market didn't appear to be giving much weight to the possibility that the economy could grow faster than expected.

"The risks to growth from Brexit and other international developments could fade away. If such events were to occur, this might necessitate an even faster pace of adjustment," he said.

"It's premature to rule out further monetary policy tightening this year. It depends on the data, broadly defined, and as we all know, that's not something one can predict with any great accuracy," he said.

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its overnight interest rate target in the 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent range, but noted that the labor market had "strengthened" and said other indicators were pointing to growth.

The Fed last hiked its overnight rate in December after keeping it anchored near zero for seven years.

On the downside, the FOMC statement noted that inflation remains mired and is "expected to remain low in the near term" and then rise as the decline in energy prices turns and the labor market continues to strengthen.

Dudley said on Monday that the medium-term risks to the economy were "somewhat skewed to the downside."

For that reason, he said it was "broadly appropriate" for market expectations to shift toward a flatter path for U.S. interest rates.

He noted that the Fed takes a "risk management approach," and that "we need to be a bit more careful about the risk of tightening monetary policy in a manner that proves to be premature as compared to the alternative risk of being a little late."

But he noted that if the Fed were to be late in responding to inflation risks in the economy, policy could be adjusted by raising short-term interest rates more quickly.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on August 02, 2016, 07:41:06 AM



Fed’s Dudley Warns It Is Premature to Rule Out an Interest-Rate Increase This Year
Says there is ‘room for improvement’ in Fed communications
By KATY BURNE
Updated Aug. 1, 2016 1:26 a.m. ET
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley argued for continued caution over the path of U.S. interest rates, given uncertainty over the global outlook, but warned that traders who have been ruling out an interest-rate increase later this year are growing too complacent.

In remarks delivered to a joint central-bank seminar in Bali between the New York Fed and Bank Indonesia, Mr. Dudley also laid out a defense of the...

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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on August 08, 2016, 12:21:27 PM



2016-08-08 11:32
美联储官员警告美国经济或陷长期低增长
美国联邦储备委员会理事杰罗姆.鲍威尔昨日表示,美国经济陷入长期低速增长困境的风险正在上升,这意味着美联储需要以非常缓慢的步伐加息。
(美国.华盛顿8日讯)美国联邦储备委员会理事杰罗姆.鲍威尔昨日表示,美国经济陷入长期低速增长困境的风险正在上升,这意味着美联储需要以非常缓慢的步伐加息。

广告

鲍威尔在英国《金融时报》网站当天刊登的采访中说,他比以往更加担心美国经济增长疲软的状况会持续更长时间,美国潜在经济增长率可能更低,这意味着要达到美联储目前对美国经济增长的预期,实际利率水准也要更低。

鲍威尔表示,美国经济增长仍然面临许多来自海外的下行风险,在全球其他地区需求疲软的背景下,美联储很难加息。他认为,美联储下一步加息需满足三大条件:国内需求和就业强劲增长、通膨水准朝着2%的目标回升、不存在明显的全球风险事件。

当被问及上述加息条件在美联储9月份货币政策例会上会否达到时,鲍威尔说,他需要先看到连续两个月非常好的美国就业报告,然后可以就加息展开讨论。他认为,当前美国通膨水准低于2%的目标,美联储可以对加息保持耐心。

广告

美国劳工部5日公布的数据显示,7月份美国非农部门新增就业岗位25.5万个,高于市场预期的18万个,失业率维持在4.9%不变,显示美国就业市场稳步改善。就业数据向好增加了美联储9月加息的可能性,但更多市场人士认为美联储可能会推迟到12月再加息。(新华社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.08.08
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on August 11, 2016, 05:52:34 AM



Ben Bernanke: The Fed's not going to be raising rates for a while
Chastened over forecasting errors, Fed officials will be less likely to tip their hands on how they see the future.
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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 BOE teaching the fed   Should Yellen follow Carney? 
Thursday, 4 Aug 2016 | 3:01 PM ET|03:20
Ben Bernanke thinks his former colleagues at the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates anytime soon.

One of Wall Street's favorite pastimes is trying to discern hidden meaning in language tweaks from Fed officials. But Bernanke, the central bank's former chairman, thinks doing so under current conditions will only lead investors astray.

In part, that's because most Fed officials have been wrong on their economic forecasts over the past several years. They anticipated that economic growth would be stronger, while both the unemployment rate and the natural level of interest rates would be higher.

Chastened over their forecasting errors, Fed officials will be less likely to tip their hands on how they see the future, both in terms of growth and whether they will hike rates.

"It has not been lost on Fed policymakers that the world looks significantly different in some ways than they thought just a few years ago, and that the degree of uncertainty about how the economy and policy will evolve may now be unusually high," Bernanke wrote this week in his most recent blog post for the Brookings Institution, a think tank he joined after leaving the Fed in 2014.

"In general, with policymakers sounding more agnostic and increasingly disinclined to provide clear guidance, Fed-watchers will see less benefit in parsing statements and speeches and more from paying close attention to the incoming data," he added.

Bernanke's successor, Janet Yellen, long has professed that the Federal Open Market Committee over which she presides is "data dependent." However, it's often been unclear which data Yellen and her colleagues watch, as unemployment has fallen well below the Fed's target level, the economy has managed steady if less-than-stellar growth, and stock market levels set new records, spurring worries of asset bubbles.

Ben Bernanke
T.J. Kirkpatrick | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Ben Bernanke
Bernanke examined Fed long-run forecasts starting in 2012 in three areas: output growth, unemployment and the "terminal" fed funds rate, which is what the Fed uses to guide the path of interest rates and reflects where the rate should be in order to promote stable growth. He found that FOMC members have had to scale down consistently.


Source: Brookings Institution

The Fed's expectations that the unemployment rate would be higher could be as much a function of the measure's dynamics: A significant portion of the decline has come from a generational low in labor force participation, which translates into a lower jobless number.

For investors, Bernanke believes the Fed's realization that it has been too optimistic about growth, and that as a result policy is probably less accommodative than it appears, is likely to lead to a reluctance to raise rates. That comes even though "the current policy is not as stimulative as previously thought," he said.

"With a shorter distance to travel to get to a neutral level of the funds rate, rate hikes are seen as less urgent even by those participants inclined to be hawkish," Bernanke wrote.

"In particular, relative to earlier estimates, they see current policy as less accommodative, the labor market as less tight, and inflationary pressures as more limited," he continued. "Moreover, there may be a greater possibility that running the economy a bit 'hot' will lead to better productivity performance over time. The implications of these changes for policy are generally dovish, helping to explain the downward shifts in recent years in the Fed's anticipated trajectory of rates."

2016 has been a particularly rough year for Fed forecasting.

While raising rates for the first time in more than nine years at the December 2015 meeting, FOMC members anticipated four more hikes this year. However, the market now is betting that there will be none, with the next likely date for a move being June 2017
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on August 12, 2016, 06:08:14 PM



2016-08-12 15:16
美国升息.伯南克:短期内不会升息
联储局前主席伯南克在部落格发文指出,由于联储局近几年来经济预测经常失准,且普遍有高估的情况,联储局将引以为戒,短期内都不会升息。
(美国.华盛顿12日讯)联储局前主席伯南克在部落格发文指出,由于联储局近几年来经济预测经常失准,且普遍有高估的情况,联储局将引以为戒,短期内都不会升息。

广告

 
伯南克是在布鲁金斯研究院的部落格发表这篇最新文章。

伯南克进一步说明指出,主因在于联储局最近几年在经济预测方面老是失准,“他们一直认为经济成长一定会走强,就业成长与利率也会双双扬升,但事实却不然。”

他说,联储局官员将引以为戒,在有关成长与升息的预测方面将较不可能发表看法,联储局决策官员很清楚,当前的情况与几年前已大不相同,攸关经济与货币政策可能走向的不确定性如今是格外的高。

伯南克认为,联储局已了解到其在经济成长预测方面过于乐观,也就是说货币政策可能也不够宽松,使得联储局好一段时间都不会升息,虽然升息后联邦基金利率离长期正常水位就会愈近,但即便是立场鹰派的决策官员都认为没有升息的急迫性。”

2016年对于联储局来说尤其是最难预测的一年,去年12月决策会议在决议启动9年多来首次升息时,联储局原本还向外界释出今年可能再升息4次的预测讯息,但迄今都按兵不动,市场甚至认定要等到明年6月才会再升息。

广告

 
多数经济学家:12月加息

经济学家正在形成一个共识,即联储局要到12月份会议才会加息。

接受《华尔街日报》调查的62名经济学家中,约71%认为联储局将在12月13至14日的会议上提高短期利率。这一比例较7月调查大幅增加,当时只有半数受访经济学家认为联储局将在12月份采取行动,而6月调查时只有7.8%经济学家这样认为。

上述经济学家的看法反映出过去几周表现不一的经济数据以及仍未稳定的全球经济形势。本月调查仅有七名受访经济学家认为联储局将在9月20-21日会议上采取行动,四名经济学家认为联储局将在11月1-2日的会议上采取行动。

经济学家在接受调查时表示,他们不确定经济前景的不确定能及时变得明朗,从而让联储局在9月20-21日的会议上加息。但他们认为,到了12月份,经济前景应当更为明朗,这将让联储局在2016年至少加息一次。联储局上次加息是在2015年12月,当时将利率上调了0.25%。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.08.12
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on August 23, 2016, 08:22:59 AM



Why markets may be setting up for a Yellen surprise
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
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Markets are only half listening to the Fed, and that leaves room for a bigger reaction if Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounds as hawkish as the comments of some other Fed officials suggest she might.

"The market has shut them out. The market is only pricing a 50/50 chance of a hike this year. If they want to get this done, and they don't want to shock the market and create a whole repeat of last year's market volatility from not going [last September] … they have to inject the expectations of another rate hike. The best defense is a good offense," said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds and foreign exchange at Prudential Fixed Income.


Pete Marovich | Bloomberg | Getty Images
With little to sway the markets this week amid very light trading, markets are fixated on Yellen's Friday speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The annual Fed symposium is sometimes used by Fed officials to make important policy statements. However, this year's topic is seen as a discussion for the longer term and is called "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future."

Over the weekend, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer joined two other recent hawkish-sounding Fed speakers, who were pushing the idea in speeches last week that the Fed is close to raising rates. Fischer's message was more on the economy, and he said the Fed is close to meeting its objectives, a comment taken as slightly hawkish.

"I think the confluence out there suggests that there must be a consensus across the Fed that they will get a rate hike done this year, if they can," said Tipp. "I think she will aim for the dovish hike. The problem with the dovish hike is I don't think you can do that in September. If you want to do so, a dovish hike is much easier in December. If you do it in September, you're going to have a lot of participants pricing in another hike in December." Tipp said the Fed wants the door to be open for a September hike, though it's highly unlikely it would act then.

"It's just not going to happen in September, in my opinion," said McCarthy. "If anything else, the Fed does not want to throw itself in the crosshairs of this potentially ugly presidential campaign one week before the first debate."

The dollar strengthened overnight Sunday and early Monday on Fischer's comment but by Monday afternoon, the dollar index was up less than 0.1 percent. Fischer is seen as a key member of the core of the Fed, along with Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley, who said last week that the Fed could hike as soon as September.

"Once again it's a confusing message. On the one hand, they're telling us they may raise rates soon, but on the other hand monetary policy hasn't been very effective. We need help on the fiscal side. This is one of those times when we have to pay a lot of attention to the Fed, and whatever they say will be open to a wide range of interpretations," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. McCarthy said Yellen may also sound somewhat upbeat on the economy, but she won't give a timeline on a rate hike.

There is little for markets to kick around Tuesday, with Markit manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m. EDT, new home sales at 10 a.m. and a few earnings from Best Buy, Toll Brothers, Intuit, J.M. Smucker and Bank of Montreal.

"When Dudley spoke last week, we got this little bounce [in the dollar]. It faded. Fischer spoke over the weekend. It bounced. Now it faded. The knee-jerk response is to buy the dollar. When all is said and done, we're talking about a December hike. That's not a sure thing. … It's hard to trade on these headlines," said Win Thin, senior currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Stocks drifted on Monday, closing mixed on light volume. The Dow was off 23 at 18,529 and the S&P was down 1 at 2,182, but the Nasdaq was lifted with biotech, rising 6 to 5,244. Treasury yields were near lows of the day in late trading. The two-year was yielding 0.74 percent in late trading, off from an earlier 0.78 percent, in response to Fischer's comments.

"We have been here before and they haven't hiked," said Putri Pascualy, senior credit strategist and portfolio manager at PAAMCO. "We have been here before and they haven't hiked. In the event that the Fed does hike, knowing what they've done in the past, they're going to do it when they feel the fundamentals are strong."
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on August 27, 2016, 02:02:18 PM



全球金融又虛驚!
 1893点阅   2016年8月27日
美聯儲主席耶侖在傑克遜霍爾(互聯網)
美聯儲主席耶侖在傑克遜霍爾(互聯網)
(美國.懷俄明州26日訊)美聯儲主席耶侖在傑克遜霍爾全球央行年會上表示,美聯儲加息的可能性已經在最近數月增強,經濟形勢正接近美聯儲的就業和通脹目標。

耶侖也提到,美聯儲的貨幣政策沒有預先設定好的路徑,加息完全取決於數據表現。美國的經濟形勢正接近美聯儲的就業和通脹目標。



聯邦公開市場操作委員會(FOMC)預計,通脹率將在未來幾年內升向2%;財政政策可以加強經濟穩定性;美國經濟繼續在擴張,支出情況穩健;投資仍然疲軟,外需低迷;美聯儲預計美國GDP適度增長,勞動力市場會進一步增強;聯邦公開市場操作委員會(FOMC)預計就業市場將繼續走強。

市場對于耶侖還是那句老調“循序漸進地加息是適宜的”感到失望,因為耶侖並沒有”洩露天機“暗示加息的時間表。

耶侖發表講話后,美聯儲頓時成了“紙老虎”,黃金在急跌8美元(32令吉)后發威,反彈2%報刷新三日高點,至1342.31美元/盎司(5395令吉/盎司)。WTI紐約油價也不甘示弱,在急跌后升反彈至47.70美元/桶 (189令吉/桶)。

耶侖講話后,目前市場對美聯儲9月、11月、12月加息預期幾率,分別為32.0%、37.8%和59.9%。

耶倫今日講話表明,如果9月不加息,那麼美聯儲很可能會在11和12月兩次會議中的一次內,有所行動。

耶侖今晚的講話給全球金融市場帶來一場上竄又下跳,還好只是虛驚一場,接下來市場都把焦點放在8月份的非農就業數據,因為它是左右美聯儲加息的步伐的重要因素
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 03, 2016, 09:04:57 AM



Dip in average work week may keep Janet Yellen from hiking, says Art Cashin
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 Art Cashin   Cashin: If I were on the Fed... 
9 Hours Ago | 02:28
Economists and market watchers are debating whether a disappointing August jobs report is enough to keep the Federal Reserve from raising rates this month, but Art Cashin said the decision might boil down to one figure.

Beyond the headline figure of 151,000 new positions in August, a number of details signal there is trouble brewing in labor markets, according to Cashin, UBS' director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange. The one that troubles him the most is a drop in the average number of hours worked, he told CNBC's "Squawk Alley" on Friday.

The average work week for private sector employees fell by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours in August, the Labor Department reported. The decline was slightly wider in the manufacturing sector, where the average hours worked was down 0.2 percent to 40.6.

The data point might not normally garner much attention, but Cashin said he believes Fed Chair Janet Yellen will look very strongly at last month's figure due to her background as an employment economist.

"While it was fractional given the number of people in the workforce, that wipes out far more than the [151,000] jobs that were added as far as productivity is concerned. That's equivalent to at least a drop of 200,000 jobs," he said.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 06, 2016, 09:08:38 AM



2016-09-06 08:27
高盛料9月加息机率55%
正当市场认为美国9月加息机会大减,高盛却发表报告,将美国9月加息机会由该行预期40%提升至55%,而且认为今年内最少加息1次机会率为80%。高盛表示,主要由于美国联储局主席叶伦在全球中行年会(Jackson Hole)的言论,显示联储局判断过去数月数据,已反映经济稳定向好。

(图:法新社)
(美国.纽约6日讯)正当市场认为美国9月加息机会大减,高盛却发表报告,将美国9月加息机会由该行预期40%提升至55%,而且认为今年内最少加息1次机会率为80%。高盛表示,主要由于美国联储局主席叶伦在全球中行年会(Jackson Hole)的言论,显示联储局判断过去数月数据,已反映经济稳定向好。

广告

 
高盛认为,叶伦当日言辞提到“加息条件已经增强”、相当肯定美国可以加息,未来经济数据只须“持续支持加息决定”即可,8月新增非农就业职位15.1万,仍然未脱离中期平均数之增长走势。高盛报告也提及,联储局副主席费希尔,早前被问到会否考虑9月加息时提到,费希尔的回答“主席(叶伦)的意思是会考虑”,显示考虑9月加息属于叶伦及费希尔二人共识。至于市场目前预测9月加息机会率仅得三成,高盛相信,距离9月议息会议前,联储局成员仍有很多公开发言机会,让市场做好加息准备。

至于有传联储局要待美国总统大选后才可加息,高盛表示此说法缺乏理据,过往经验显示,如联储局前主席格林斯潘于2004年大选年的7月加息;另一前主席伯南克,甚至于上届总统大选前夕、2012年9月宣布推出争议性极大的QE3。(香港明报)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.09.0
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 11, 2016, 06:32:17 PM



彈盡援絕了?央行鴿派舉白旗 英、德、日債殖利率飆
回應(0) 人氣(1563) 收藏(0) 2016/09/10 11:41
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-09-10 11:41:02 記者 郭妍希 報導
歐洲央行(ECB)並未擴大量化寬鬆貨幣政策(QE),再加上聯準會(Fed)鴿派官員出面談升息,帶動德國10年期公債殖利率由負轉正、日本10年期公債殖利率也逐漸逼近零,英國公債更是激烈震盪,成為市場矚目焦點。這一切訊息都意味著,各國央行似乎已彈盡援絕,無法再如過去那般大舉實施寬鬆政策。(圖為歐洲央行總裁德拉吉)
華爾街日報9日報導,在過去兩天以來,英國10年期公債殖利率從原本的0.67%狂升0.2個百分點(相當於20個基點)至0.86%,而德國10年期公債殖利率漲幅雖較少,但也有0.14個百分點。
這顯然是因為,投資人認為各國央行維持低利率的時間,恐怕無法如之前市場預期那麼久,歐洲央行發布最新貨幣政策聲明後,升息預期反而蠢蠢欲動。為何會如此?業界人士認為,債市投資人其實對英國經濟感到樂觀,但都想等歐洲央行發布利率決策後再來動作,以免歐央總裁德拉吉決定加碼寬鬆、迫使英國央行(BOE)跟進。

隔夜利率互換(overnight interest-rate swaps)是一種衍生性商品,可讓投資人為利率變化進行避險。從隔夜利率互換就能看出人們對升息的期待:投資人9日預測,英國未來五年的指標利率將從目前的0.25%攀升至0.47%,比歐洲央行宣布貨幣聲明之前的0.36%還要高。
Fed官員最近的談話,也都偏向鷹派。對市場來說,這也暗示英國央行加碼寬鬆的意願不會太高,因為各國央行不再積極擴大貨幣刺激,英國央行也不需要過度放寬政策。
除了英國殖利率跳升外,日本央行(BOJ)的買債計畫恐達極限、或許會縮減長天期日本債的購買規模,也令日本10年期公債殖利率往上升、逐漸逼近零。Henderson Global Investors指出,全球央行普遍都變得較偏鷹派。
路透社報導,消息顯示,日本央行考慮讓日本公債的殖利率曲線變得更加陡峭,這帶動日本公債殖利率跳升。日本20年期公債殖利率9日攀升至0.435%、創5個月高,30年期公債殖利率也跳升7個基點至0.515%。
MarketWatch、路透社等多家外電9日報導,德意志銀行週五發布研究報告示警,宣稱全球經濟已接近「轉折點」,過去數十年來的全球化進程即將逆轉,貿易保護主義蠢蠢欲動,而債市長達35年的多頭行情也即將告終,接下來35年,通膨、債券殖利率恐將翻轉往上走。
報告稱,央行的寬鬆貨幣政策在實施數年後,如今幾已彈盡援絕,但財政撙節、薪資停滯引發的政治風暴才正要展開,貿易保護主義也將順勢崛起。
德銀認為,在較好的情境下,債市投資人恐面臨長達數年、甚至好幾十年的「打折」(haircut)行情,類似二次大戰(WWII)結束後的情況。德銀提出的另一個較為嚴峻的假設,則是有某個大國不幸違約、把國內債券全部拖下水,影響甚至蔓延到國際市場。在這樣的情況下,非核心的公債市場將面臨嚴重損失,因為屆時央行的安全網早已移除。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 13, 2016, 04:52:39 PM



2016-09-13 15:25
联储局意见分化.9月会议倾向按兵不动
美国联邦储备局官员在距离下次政策会议还有一周之际,仍然缺乏统一意见,目前倾向于继续等待,到今年晚些时候再考虑上调短期利率。
(美国.纽约13日讯)美国联邦储备局官员在距离下次政策会议还有一周之际,仍然缺乏统一意见,目前倾向于继续等待,到今年晚些时候再考虑上调短期利率。

广告
 

 
或暂缓升息

官员们仍各执己见。但根据公开评论和近期访问的内容判断,鉴于通货膨胀仍然低于联储局2%的目标,再加上近几个月失业率数据几乎没有改变,美联储的高级官员们几乎感受不到采取行动的迫切性,而是倾向于推迟行动。

联储局虽然犹豫不决,却面临催促其行动的外部压力。摩根大通(J.P.Morgan Chase & Co.,JPM)董事会主席及首席首席执行员戴蒙(James Dimon)周一在华盛顿经济俱乐部(Economic Club of Washington, D.C.)称,联储局无需在这件事上进退两难,现在正是加息的时机。他还表示,加息25个基点也只会产生很小的影响。

联储局主席叶伦(Janet Yellen)在9月20-21日政策会议召开前一周将与16名官员进行幕后商议,以听取他们的意见并制定会议计划。她所面对的是一群意见分化的决策者,出现更多内部份歧的可能性要比2014年她上任以来的正常水平更高。

考虑到4.9%的失业率,一些地区联邦储备银行行长认为,劳动力市场已经在很大程度上自2007-2009年的金融危机中复苏,不再需要让短期利率位于仅略高于零的水平。这些人士指出,最近数周美国经济面临的海外风险已经消散,这增强了目前采取行动的理由。

广告

对于其他人来说,当前的口号是耐心。这些人士大多预计今年将加息,但认为没必要立即采取行动。这些官员指出,今年失业率并没有太大变化。因此,就业市场的过剩劳力正在以比此前更慢的速度减少。这降低了通过提高信贷成本以防经济过热的紧迫性。

此外,由于经济增长如此缓慢,这组人士认为利率在未来几个月乃至几年无需升至很高的水平,因此联储局可以慢慢来。

亚特兰大联储银行行长洛克哈特(Dennis Lockhart)在周一发表讲话后告诉记者,他认为他们不会为耐心付出代价。

联储局理事布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)在希望等待的阵营中一直敢于直言,她在周一于芝加哥发表的一次讲话中呼吁对加息保持审慎态度。

这番言论受到金融市场的密切关注,因为一些交易员推测布雷纳德或许会改变立场,转而支持加息。但与此相反,布雷纳德列出五点理由,说明美联储为何应坚持执行谨慎而缓慢加息的策略。

推迟加息给叶伦带来风

推迟加息的决定将给叶伦带来风险。联储局可能将受到传达含混信息使市场参与者无所适从的批评。叶伦本人在上月的杰克逊霍尔全球中行年会上表示,加息的理由已经增强。这被部份市场参与者解读为叶伦准备行动的信号。

自去年12月以来,联储局基准利率(名为联邦基金利率的银行间隔夜拆款利率)一直维持在0.25%至0.5%区间。

联邦基金利率期货市场交易员预计联储局9月加息和12月13日至14日会议加息的概率分别为15%和57%。联储局官员通常不愿出乎投资者意料,这是他们倾向推迟加息的又一因素。

美联储官员还将在11月1日至2日举行会议,但那时加息似乎不太可能,因为一周后就是美国总统选举日。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.09.13
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 14, 2016, 10:23:06 AM



美联储内部分裂
叶伦很头大
181点看 2016年9月14日
美联储主席叶伦。
美联储主席叶伦。

(纽约14日综合电)距离美联储开会仅剩一周,但决策官员们对本月利率动向看来还没有共识,鹰、鸽两派壁垒分明,可能会是叶伦接掌主席以来内部意见最对立的一次会议。


国际能源署(IEA)表示油价供过于求会持续到明年上半年,油价应声跌3%。美联储短期升息几率降也重创金融股。

联邦公开市场操作委员会两派阵营壁垒分明,势均力敌,一方面多数成员基于通膨蓄势待涨,劳动市场松弛减低,主张逐步升息,另一派美联储在会议纪录里的“其他与会者”,则认为并未证据显示通膨对劳动市场紧俏已有反应。

因此,这一派代表人物美联储理事布兰纳德日前在芝加哥演讲说,目前似乎没有必要向通膨或就业过热靠拢,也就是说,没有急于升息的理由。这个论点可能在9月20日和21日的公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上很有说服力。布兰纳德是美联储开会前最后一位公开发言的美联储官员,美联储接下来会静默一周。

接掌以来内部最对立一次

美联储主席叶伦可趁此时间私下与16位官员讨论,多方听取意见,替会议定调。这将是叶伦面对2014年接掌美联储以来,内部意见最对立的一次会议。

不少美联储分区总裁主张,失业率已降至4.9%,劳动市场大致从金融危机复原,让短期利率仍接近于零渐失正当性。

这一派也认为,美国经济来自海外的风险已去除,此时不动、更待何时。

另一派则主张耐心以对,他们大致认为今年是该升息,但不是现在。这一派官员指出,失业率今年并无太大变动,劳动市场疲态消逝的速度较缓,也因此降低升息以防经济过热的急迫性。

亚特兰大联邦准备银行总裁洛克哈德便说:“我觉得我们不会因为耐心付出代价。”

布兰纳德也说,通膨对失业率降低的反应不大,通膨不动如山于低档,排除Fed为避免物价急速上涨而得防患于未然的压力。

新闻来源:经济日报


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 14, 2016, 04:28:22 PM



华尔街之狼:麻烦了!
加息与否 市场仍非常危险
205点看 2016年9月14日

卡尔伊坎

(纽约14日综合电)外媒报道,对冲基金大鳄、绰号“华尔街之狼”的卡尔伊坎(Carl Icahn)表示,无论美联储加息与否,市场仍然非常危险且充满问题。


他续称:“如果美联储不加息,相信我们会处于极大的泡沫之中。”

他坦言,目前环境看来,市场非常危险,你好像“走在窗台,以为即将走到尽头的时候,却从窗台掉下来,而你知道这次有麻烦了。”

新闻来源:东网


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 18, 2016, 07:36:54 PM



2016-09-18 14:20
陈定远‧美联储升息是个两难问题吗?
美国利率水平这么低,已经跌入了所谓的流动性陷阱,利率变动如果不大,例如仅仅提高利率0.25%,是不会对经济活动产生影响的。
每一个月的第三个星期三,是美国联邦储备局议论利率的日子,利率或升或降,或维持不变,都在这一两天的会议决定,除非有特大事件突然发生。例如8年前9月16日雷曼兄弟宣布倒闭,打乱了美联储的议事日程,非马上召开会议商议经济对策不可。

广告

而在议论利率之前的一个星期五,又是美国每月公布就业统计数字的日子。就业数字,尤其是非农就业数字,比较能够反映经济的走势,是决定利率水平的重要依据之一。笔者写这篇文章时,美国9月2日周五已经公布8月份新增的非农就业人数,因低于市场预期,于是市场一般认为美联储9月加息的可能性不高。不过这不是笔者的重点,笔者要强调的是,在这个时期,决定利率升降是个两难问题吗?是否升息真的那么难吗?

现代美国联邦基金利率,曾在牛仔总统里根执政的1980年代达到最高峰,当时利率为17.61%,过后利率便一直下滑,到2008年发生全球金融危机后,因为采取了扩张性的货币政策,除了推出大型量化宽松措施之外,还把利率降至近乎零的水平,是为0%-0.25%。量化宽松措施结束后,美联储还保证低利率水平会一直延续到2015年中,企图加强投资者在长期投资上的信心,保证资金成本在几年内不会上升。

2014年,美国经济已经摆脱衰退,从有史以来经济最大衰退中复苏过来,但美国经济好转并不强劲,通货膨胀率依旧很低。在美元外汇市场上,开始有大户押注美元,开始兴风作浪,并推波助澜,声称美国利率即将上升,以便达到寻租的目的。于是大量的资金从新兴市场流出,涌向美元,美元汇率猛涨,新兴国家的货币大贬,押注美元的投机者寻租成功,大有斩获。美联储保证利率在2015年中不会上升,但外汇市场里的投机者并不理会,制造利率即将上升的舆论,它们的阴谋果然得逞。

美联储在2015年12月中虚晃一招,将利率提高0.25%,即提升到0.25%-0.5%,并宣布往后的利率会按部就班分阶段有序提高。美联储也许后来发觉,那一次提高利率的决定是错误的,因为就业人数并没有显著的增加,经济没有显著的好转,通货膨胀也没有发生,所以一直到今天的9个月后,仍旧没有宣布提高利率。 9月20-21日即将召开的美联储议息会议会不会宣布加息?有84%的市场人士预测说不会。不过,这一次倒是没有投机者在兴风作浪,推波助澜,积极寻租。

从最近美联储内部鹰鸽两派的言论来看,他们泾渭分明,鹰派认为应该加息,而鸽派则不以为然,没有一致的共识。美联储主席耶伦对9月是否加息的发言含糊不清,用词晦涩难懂,以致有人认为,耶伦的立场不如美联储前任主席伯南克的立场那么清楚果断,倒像是另一前任格林斯潘一样的含糊不清,不过,我们不要忘记,是格林斯潘这个主席把美国利率降到了零的水平。

广告

市场普遍认为美联储本月不会有加息行动,不过,在年底之前,美联储必会有一次加息行动。笔者认为,到时如果加息也是虚晃一招,除非经济活动有非常强劲的表现,通货膨胀出现苗头,显示经济活动有过热的迹象,才需要以提高利率的货币政策降低总需求,避免发生严重的通货膨胀。

美国利率水平这么低,已经跌入了所谓的流动性陷阱,利率变动如果不大,例如仅仅提高利率0.25%,是不会对经济活动产生影响的。既然这样,提高与不提高利率是没有区别的,换句话说,加息这个决定并不是一个两难的问题。但由于美联储在去年12月错误地提高利率,让人诟病,于是对加息这个问题便从此小心谨慎,不明确表态。

平心而论,这是不必要的,因为加不加息,在这个时期并不重要,重要的是,美联储应该明确表态,让人对利率的走势有所依从,就如伯南克保证利率在2015年中仍会保持在低水平一样。但是耶伦接手担任美国第二号人物之后,对利率的走势一直含糊其辞,让人无所依从,甚至被人牵着鼻子走。

就如2014年下半年开始,各路金融大鳄鼓吹升息论,说什么美国利率随时会被提升,美联储主席耶伦也不出来辟谣,也不出来表示美国低利率至少会一直维持到2015年中,以便安抚人心,然而这种暧昧的态度,害得大家竞相追逐美元,以致美元汇率大涨,让有心人士寻租成功。

文章来源:
星洲日报/百思莫解·作者:陈定远·南方大学学院企业与管理学院教授·2016.09.18
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on September 22, 2016, 07:17:02 AM



Janet Yellen: I would expect to see a rate hike this year
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
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 Yellen: Less disagreement in FOMC than you might think   Yellen: More agreement in FOMC than you might think 
4 Hours Ago | 02:37
The Fed's decision not to hike rates this month shouldn't be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the economy, Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday.

After the latest move by the central bank to pass on a hike, Yellen was left to defend the Fed's decision to maintain a crisis-era rate policy despite the last recession ending more than seven years ago.

"Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy," she said during her quarterly news conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. "Conditions in the labor market have strengthened and we expect that to continue, and while inflation remains low we expect it to rise to our 2 percent objective over time."

FOMC officials dissented over whether to raise rates this month, with three members voting against the final committee statement to keep the funds rate between 0.25 and 0.50 percent.

Yellen said the majority's thinking was that economic progress is continuing but there was not a strong enough case to hike.

"We are generally agreed that gradual increases in the federal funds rate to remove what is a modest degree of accommodation will be appropriate, but we don't see the economy as overheating now," she said.

However, Yellen gave a fairly strong indication that a hike will happen before 2016 is over. She said the labor market is strengthening and "risks to the outlook have become roughly balanced."

The FOMC has two more meetings — in November, shortly before the presidential election, and December, where Yellen gives her final post-meeting news conference of the year.

"I would expect to see (a rate increase this year) if we continue on the current course of labor market improvement, and there are no major risks that develop and we stay on the current course," she said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 09, 2016, 07:40:08 AM



贝莱德:美国12月加息已几成定局
764点看 2016年10月8日
(纽约8日讯)全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)全球固定收益业务首席投资主管瑞克莱德(Rick Rieder)表示,除非美国经济或市场遭受意外冲击,否则美联储今年12月加息似乎已几成定局。

据外媒报道,莱德认为,上个月美国非农就业数据已为11月加息打开大门,但相信总统大选期间,美联储不倾向加息。


他预期劳动市场继续改善,而明年通胀率料将上升。

新闻来源:综合报道

Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 18, 2016, 02:34:59 PM



2016-10-16 19:51
李文龙.再谈美国升息
国行是否调整利息应对备受关注。理论上而言,升息有助巩固马币汇率、对依赖利息收入的退休人士有利,加强马币的购买力等。惟它必须也要顾及其他的负面冲击取得平衡,特别是将会加重经济成长的成本,从而拉低经济成长与活动。
美国很有可能在今年12月再升息,这将对大马带来什么样的影响,值得加以关注与做好应对准备。

广告

美国经济好转持续升息,首要关注的是美国为首的先进国,之前展开量化宽松货币政策时,所注入数以兆美元计的资金动向。

这些流动资金,目前遍布全球市场,若是总体回酬率、经济基本层面及安全性欠佳,这些游资将撤离四处流动寻求更好的投资标,誓必造成全球资金市场包括大马市场波动不靖。

国行是否调整利息应对备受关注。理论上而言,升息有助巩固马币汇率、对依赖利息收入的退休人士有利,加强马币的购买力等。惟它必须也要顾及其他的负面冲击取得平衡,特别是将会加重经济成长的成本,从而拉低经济成长与活动。

若是大马也跟着升息,这将对各行各业产生影响,高负债的企业及个人将首当其冲,加重它们的偿还债务成本,产业贷款受到影响,打击市场消费情绪(消费者存钱兴致高于消费)。

惟在做出是否调整利息时,相信国行肯定会深重考量大马偏高的家庭债及政府债、仍然偏低的官方通膨率,后者某程度上显示消费及经济情况低迷的重要衡量因素。

大马政府6560亿令吉的债务,绝大部份为国内的令吉债务,并仍落在国内生产总值的55%以下水平。所以,除了短期外资引起的短暂的波动,整体而言,相信它不会对大马经济的基本面造成太大的冲击。

广告

预期2016年的大马经济成长可达4至4.5%之间水平,以目前全球及区域经济参差不齐的情况而言,大马经济成长水平仍可说是可圈可点,拥有一定的吸引力,惟若是持续下滑或较显著降低,则是另当别论及胥视当局将采取什么措施应对以改善情况。

大马也需要胥视商品价格的起落,特别是双油——即原油与原棕油的支撑,国内需求与消费,以及无可加以量化惟却是最重要考量的政治因素,国内任何重大政治活动,都可以触动整体经济活动或国内外投资者的神经。

美国是否开如进一步升息,固然对大马经济及资金市场产生影响,惟最为重要焦点,还是落在大马本身的经济基本层面及政治因素而定。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧投资茶室‧文:李文龙‧2016.10.16
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 19, 2016, 08:02:10 PM



财经  2016年10月19日
美通胀急涨 升息更近了

(华盛顿19日讯)继欧元区9月消费者物价激增一倍后,美国与英国18日公布的通胀率涨幅同创近两年来最大,通胀在全球各地有捲土重来之势。美国劳工部18日指出,美国9月的消费者物价指数(CPI)较去年同期成长1.5%,创下2014年10月来最大涨幅,9月扣除食品和能源的核心通胀则较去年上涨2.2%。

美国9月的CPI较上个月增长0.3%,也是近5个月最大增幅。英国国家统计局同日公布,9月CPI较一年前上涨1%,高于8月的0.6%,也优于经济学家预测的0.9%,涨幅更是自2014年11月来最高。9月的CPI较上个月增加0.2%。

经济学家说,若美国的通胀持续出现稳定增长,联储局(Fed)就可能会在12月升息。
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 21, 2016, 08:50:36 AM



惊世一枪,加息的信号终于来了
2016-10-20
  作者黄生,喜投网董事长,中国知名投资人,货币专家,《钓鱼岛背后的货币战争》作者。不关注金融,你将会被这个世界抛弃,因为你赚钱的速度很难赶上印钞的速度,黄生微信订阅号:hsshuoxt ,黄生个人微信号:huangshengxt,喜投网微信订阅号:xitouwang,敬请关注!

  刚刚美联储公布的数据,美国申请上调贴现利率的地方联储已经高达9家,也就是三分之二的地方联储支持提高贴现利率,美国2015年12月加息的时候,也是9家地方联储申请提高贴现利率,11月提高,12月加息。

  美联储贴现利率的提高,是加息的前奏,一般贴现利率提高后,随之加息就到来,这次如此之多的地方联储申请提高贴现利率,说明加息的时机已经到来。

  现在就等美联储同意提高贴现利率了,一旦美联储提高贴现利率,那么紧接着就是美联储加息了。

  为什么要先提高贴现利率,然后再加息呢?

  1、因为提高贴现利率,使得商业银行向美联储再贷款的成本提高,为了降低成本,商业银行会转而向联邦储备基金进行拆借,这样一来会导致联邦储备基金拆借利率上升。

  2、联邦储备基金拆借需求旺盛,美联储就可以顺应市场需求,提高联邦储备基金利率,也就是加息。

  3、提高贴现利率,实际上就是减少基础货币的投放,控制央行的资产负债表膨胀,使得市场更多的使用已经通过经济活动流通过的货币,而非直接印钞。

  4、因为基础货币相当于直接印钞,是没有直接的财富对应的,如果总是这样,会导致印钞规模无法控制,也会导致通胀的发生。

  让我们耐心等待吧,美联储随时可能会提高贴现利率,那么紧接着就是加息了,到时,全球金融市场将接受一场狂风暴雨的洗礼
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 23, 2016, 03:19:27 PM



太晚或致通胀失控
美国应渐进升息
80点看 2016年10月23日

威廉斯

(华盛顿22日讯)旧金山联储银行行长威廉斯(John Williams)重申美联储应渐进升息,太晚升息或致通胀失控,届时不得不迅速升息,从而危害经济。


他认为,美国经济基本上处于充分就业状态,通胀在接近于美联储设定的2%目标。

美国经济对美联储升息准备充分。

因此,渐进升息是合理的,升息宜早不宜迟。缓慢升息,并不是要试图阻碍经济扩张,恰恰相反,支持缓慢升息是为了让经济维持在良好的基础之上。

美联储内部也有数名支持加息的官员,给出了与威廉斯类似的立场,称早升息的话,能够对经济有更好的把控,不会使得通胀失调。

当通胀不受控制时,美联储可能不得不激进地升息,从而导致经济陷入衰退。

威廉斯认为,美联储今年升息一次、明年升息数次是合理的。

长期来看,美国利率可能只会升到3%至3.5%的水平,甚至有可能还要低。

他还谈到了美联储资产负债表规模,称美联储已经多次讨论关于资产负债表规模的“合理计划”。

美联储计划在利率明显脱离零之前,维持资产负债表规模不变。未来,资产负债表规模会低于当前。


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Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 25, 2016, 08:12:02 PM



财经  2016年10月25日
美12月升息机率突破70%

(纽约25日讯)《彭博》资讯报导,追踪联邦基金利率的数据显示,美国联储局(Fed)12月升息的机率,已经从上周五的68%,上升到71%。

美元兑一篮子主要货幣周一徘徊在9个月高点附近,美元兑日圆匯价也触及一周高点,主要是投资人对Fed12月升息的预期心理增强。

美元指数周一小涨,报98.775,略低于盘中触及的近9个月高点,美元兑日圆匯价也升至一周高点。欧元兑美元匯价跌0.08%,报1.0873美元,接近上周五触及的逾7个月低点。

明年底或升息3次


近期美国经济数据良好和Fed官员的言论,使得美国在12月升息预期心理升高,周一交易商预期,美国12月升息的机率约74%。

芝加哥联邦准备银行总裁伊凡斯(Charles Evans)周一表示,若通胀预期和就业市场持续好转,到明年底美国可升息3次。

上周五旧金山联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)的讲话,和纽约联邦银行总裁杜雷(William Dudley)10月19日的言论也暗示,美国离升息的日子不远了。

美元兑新兴市场货幣下跌,分析师將此归因于投资者愿意承担更多风险,以及近日民调显示,民主党总统选人希拉里的支持率领先川普,目前离11月8日美国总统大选还剩2周的时间
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 26, 2016, 08:25:48 PM



CURRENCY
Why This Dollar Surge Is Different for the Fed

OCT 26, 2016 1:00 AM EST
a | A
By
Mohamed A. El-Erian
The dollar has returned to highs it last reached nine months ago. The drivers of this increase are similar to those that caused the currency to surge earlier this year. Yet, this time, the impact on financial markets has been quite different. And if this persists, the implications for Federal Reserve policy will also be different.

Traders have pushed the dollar higher based on their confidence of an approaching divergence in central bank policies – that is, a tightening by the Fed even as other systemically important institutions such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the People’s Bank of China maintain or intensify their loose stance. But in contrast to the earlier period, the impact on U.S. stocks has been very muted.

The Fed Lifts Off, Barely

Instead of enduring a selloff in response to currency-induced competitive pressures -- which is what happened in the first quarter -- U.S. stocks have been well-behaved. A heavy deal calendar has helped as investors cheered the influx of merger-and-acquisition funding into the marketplace, whether from corporate cash held on balance sheets or new debt financing. As a result, financial conditions have remained highly accommodative, despite the appreciation of the dollar.

Equity investors have also been reassured by the growing -- and correct -- recognition that this Fed hiking cycle will depart drastically from historical norms. Instead of following a relatively linear path of increases at regular intervals, it will have pronounced “stop-go” characteristics. Also, and perhaps more importantly, the endpoint -- or what economists call the “neutral rate” -- will be considerably lower than recent historical averages.

An open question is whether the Fed will be able to pull off this gradual and measured tightening of financial conditions without upsetting markets that have become used to exceptional support from central banks. What is clear, however, is that the recent strengthening of the dollar, of itself, is unlikely to be a deterrent to a rate hike for the rest of this year. That is most likely in December rather than at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week.

Sensing this, markets have already raised the implied probability of Fed action in December to almost 75 percent. Together with relative short-term economic and financial calm abroad, including a lot less worry about a hard landing in China, this will comfort the Fed, which is already inclined to take a further step, albeit a small one, to normalize monetary policy. Moreover, when viewed in relative terms, this normalization of monetary policy in the context of a stronger dollar contributes to the “global rebalancing” needed to put the world economy on a firmer footing.

But ultimately it will be absolute fundamentals, rather than relative trends, that secure a prosperous global economy and genuine financial stability. And a sufficiently robust foundation still eludes us.

The upcoming rebalancing will be attempted in the context of growth rates that remain too low and are insufficiently inclusive, which increases the risk of further political polarization, dysfunction and an economic derailment. Until the basic challenge of generating high and inclusive growth is overcome, the Fed’s normalization process will be far from automatic and the risk of market instability will remain too high to ignore.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on October 31, 2016, 06:59:23 AM



Will the Fed surprise complacent investors?
Paul Davidson , USA TODAY 6:21 p.m. EDT October 30, 2016
AFP AFP_HG19I A ELE ELE USA ST
(Photo: PAUL J. RICHARDS, AFP/Getty Images)
Could the Federal Reserve shock markets and raise interest rates Wednesday, less than a week before a historic presidential election?

Put it this way: The odds are of  Los Angeles Dodgers victory in the World Series are just slightly lower. (Hint: the Dodgers aren’t in the series). Yet at least one economist doesn’t rule out the possibility.

While fears of roiling markets and thus possibly swaying the election are playing some role, the Fed has other reasons to stand pat, including mixed economic data. Employers added a tepid 156,000 jobs in September.And although the government reported Friday that economic growth accelerated to a 2.9% annual pace in the third quarter, gains in consumer spending and business investment were modest.


USA TODAY
Economy grows at fastest pace in 2 years as GDP rises 2.9% in Q3

STORY FROM HYATT
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What’s more, the Fed is seen as unlikely to bump up rates at a meeting that’s not followed by a scheduled press conference in which Chair Janet Yellen can explain the move. Goldman Sachs also notes the Fed has been loath to make a move markets aren’t expecting on fears it could spark a selloff. Fed fund futures reckon there’s just a 9.3% chance the Fed will act this week.

More likely, Goldman says, is Fed officials will strongly signal a December hike.

Fueling some speculation that the Fed could hike at a two-day meeting that begins Tuesday was the split decision at its September gathering to leave rates unchanged. Three policymakers dissented and 10 forecast at least one rate increase by year-end.

The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at a historically low 0.4% since lifting it in December for the first time in nine years.

“Should a rate hike lead to market volatility, there is the possibility it could have some marginal impact on the election outcome,” says Barclays economist Rob Martin. He adds that with Americans voting just six days after the Fed meeting, there would be little time for stocks to settle.

And, he says, since there’s no difference to the economy if the Fed acts in November or December, why not wait a bit? The Fed boosts rates to temper inflation, but price increases have been meager.

Fed officials likely would prefer not to swing the election either way. But practically, a market sell-off could dim perceptions of the economy and President Obama, and by extension, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Also, with some businesses saying election-related uncertainty is damping their confidence and investments, economists have suggested it would be prudent for the Fed to hold off and assess the vote's impact on markets.


USA TODAY
Fed holds rates steady in close call; strongly signals Dec. hike

Yet even doing nothing can draw fire. In September, Republican nominee Donald Trump accused Fed Chair Janet Yellen of keeping rates low to help Obama. Yellen told reporters that “partisan politics plays no role in our decisions.”

In recent weeks, though, some Fed officials have grudgingly acknowledged the face-off is part of the picture. “What I’m worried about is depending on the outcome of the election and what happens after that, if there are policies that would have distortive effects that we would have to respond to,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told reporters this month, according to Bloomberg News.

Asked about the election's impact, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who wanted to lift rates last month, told the Wall Street Journal the market’s view that December is far more likely “is a reasonable bet.”

Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics doesn’t think the Fed will pull the trigger this week but says investors are too complacent. Noting most polls show Clinton with a big lead, he contends little uncertainty remains about the vote and a rate hike would underscore the Fed’s remove from politics.

Still, this contest has been unusually vitriolic. And politics often lurks in the background. In 1998, former President George H.W. Bush told David Frost he believes he would have been reelected in 1992 if then-Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan had cut rates more dramatically to juice the recovery.

"I reappointed him, and he disappointed me," Bush said.
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on November 03, 2016, 08:12:42 AM



Fed Sets Up Move in December While Leaving Rates on Hold
 Christopher Condon
 chrisjcondon
November 3, 2016 — 2:00 AM MYT Updated on November 3, 2016 — 2:34 AM MYT
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Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged While Setting Up Possible Move
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Federal Reserve policy makers left interest rates unchanged while saying the argument for higher borrowing costs strengthened further amid accelerating inflation, reinforcing expectations for a hike next month.
“The committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. The decision was 8-2.
Fed officials revealed growing confidence that inflation is on track to reach their 2 percent target. The central bank said Wednesday that the pace of price gains “has increased somewhat since earlier this year” and that market-based measures of inflation compensation “have moved up.” The committee also omitted previous language saying inflation would probably “remain low in the near term.”
“Given the asymmetry of risks, there was little chance they would hike in November, their earliest opportunity and a meeting without a press conference” by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York. The presidential “election is a secondary consideration, in my view.”
The decision to forgo a rate increase had been widely expected owing to the proximity of next week’s U.S. presidential election and the lack of a scheduled press briefing after this meeting. Now the focus will shift to the FOMC’s gathering in December, provided the outlook for the economy and inflation isn’t thrown into doubt over the next six weeks.
This month’s statement said the Fed would wait for “some further evidence” of progress in the economy before raising rates, adding the qualifier “some” to language from September, a sign that officials moved incrementally closer to a hike.
Two Dissenters
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Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Kansas City Fed chief Esther George, two of the three officials who dissented at the committee’s September session, repeated their objection, calling for raising the federal funds target by a quarter percentage point from its current range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent. The third, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, opted to support Wednesday’s decision to hold rates steady.

When leaving rates unchanged in September, the FOMC acknowledged the case for tightening policy had “strengthened.” Minutes of the session later showed that was a “close call” for several officials who supported the decision to stand pat and wait for the economy make more progress.
Investors weren’t convinced, however, that officials would pull the trigger this week. Pricing in federal funds futures contracts earlier Wednesday implied a roughly 15 percent probability of an increase at this meeting. Traders and economists instead had their eyes on the Dec. 13-14 meeting, when futures indicated a roughly two-in-three chance of a quarter-point move.
None of the 90 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected a hike this week.
In addition to the uncertainties for financial markets posed by the election, many Fed watchers have said the central bank is less inclined to alter policy at a meeting, such as this week’s, that doesn’t feature a scheduled press conference from Yellen. The briefings follow alternating meetings.
Inflation Pickup
The Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures has moved closer to the bank’s 2 percent target this year, reaching 1.7 percent in the 12 months through September after stripping out volatile food and energy components. Unemployment was 5 percent in September, at or close to what many economists estimate is its lowest sustainable level.
“There does appear to have been a more explicit reference to the possibility that inflation may be getting a little bit of steam now, so that might tend to reinforce the view that we are going to have a rate increase in December,” former Richmond Fed President Al Broaddus said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Job Market
The central bank on Wednesday offered an assessment of the economy that was broadly similar to its September statement, reiterating that the “labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up” since the first half.
“The thing that jumps out is how little was changed,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in New York, explaining that officials probably feel that markets have sufficiently priced-in a possible December rate increase, allowing them to avoid the sort of explicit signal that they gave in the statement immediately before their hike last year.
Officials acknowledged a cooling of consumer spending, saying it “has been rising moderately,” compared with September, when it had been “growing strongly.”
The economy expanded at a 2.9 percent annualized pace in the third quarter, according to a government report last week. While that was more than double the rate in the previous period, household spending actually slowed more than expected, while inventory rebuilding and a soybean-related jump in exports powered the rebound.
The Fed’s only rate increase since the financial crisis of 2008-09 came last December when officials lifted the target range by 0.25 percentage point. They have regularly signaled their expectation for additional, gradual increases, but were put off by a range of worries.
Concerns about slowing global growth early in 2016, a dismal U.S. employment report in May and the U.K.’s June vote to exit the European Union all helped delay potential rate hikes even as the U.S. economy continued on a broad trend of adding jobs and slightly higher inflation
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on November 03, 2016, 10:15:00 AM



2016-11-03 09:26
美联储再次维持利率不变
美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率维持在0.25%至0.5%不变,同时表示再次启动加息的条件继续加强。

(图:法新社)
(美国.华盛顿3日讯)美国联邦储备委员会2日宣布将联邦基金利率维持在0.25%至0.5%不变,同时表示再次启动加息的条件继续加强。

广告

 
美联储当天在结束为期两天的货币政策例会后发表声明说,9月以来的信息显示美国就业市场继续改善,经济增长较上半年有所回升,家庭消费继续温和增长,但企业固定投资仍然疲软。

声明说,今年以来美国通膨率有所回升,但仍低于美联储2%的目标。

与上一次声明相比,美联储在这次声明中去掉了“通膨水准将在短期内维持低位”的表述,暗示美联储对通胀继续回升的信心有所增强。

声明说,美国经济面临的短期风险大致平衡。美联储认为再次启动加息的条件继续加强,但决定等待一些证据表明通膨和就业继续朝着美联储的目标进一步改进后再启动加息。

这是今年以来美联储连续第七次维持联邦基金利率不变,与市场预期相符。在本次会议上,有两位美联储官员对政策声明投了反对票,他们认为应该在本次会议上决定加息。

分析人士指出,声明中的美国通膨率回升的表述,意味着美联储在12月货币政策例会上决定加息的可能性有所加大。

广告

 
美联储于去年12月启动近十年来首次加息,开始缓慢的货币政策正常化进程。(新华社)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.11.03
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on November 05, 2016, 08:37:55 AM



Fed's Fischer says labor market strong, Fed could overshoot goals
4 Hours Ago
Reuters
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The U.S. labor market is close to full strength and the economy could at some point overshoot the Federal Reserve's goals for employment and inflation, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Friday.

Fischer did not say whether the Fed was likely to raise interest rates in December but he noted that investors in financial markets were betting on a hike that month.

"The labor market has, by and large, had a pretty good year," Fischer said in prepared remarks for a conference at the International Monetary Fund, describing the jobs situation in America as "close to full employment."

U.S. employers added 161,000 jobs in October, data showed earlier on Friday, and Fischer said the economy probably only needs to create between 65,000 and 115,000 per month to maintain full employment.

Fischer has warned several times this year that higher inflation was bound to stir before long and on Friday he reiterated that he expected prices to rise more quickly.

More strikingly, he appeared to acknowledge the U.S. labor market could overheat and that inflation could exceed the Fed's 2 percent target although he did not say when the U.S. economy might exceed the Fed's objectives.

He said the long-run growth outlook was rather uncertain in part because economists do not understand why growth in average output per hour worked has stagnated.

A better understanding might develop if the labor market becomes tighter and inflation rises, he said, referring to a hypothesis that faster growth in demand might lead to an acceleration in productivity growth.

"It will be answered by the behavior of output and inflation as we approach and perhaps to some extent exceed our employment and inflation targets," Fischer said
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on November 11, 2016, 06:30:32 AM



财经  2016年11月10日
市场预料Fed加速升息

(纽约10日讯)川普当选美国总统后,债市交易员对联储局(Fed)升息的看法也跟著市场转向,原本认为Fed会延后升息,如今不仅认为下个月会升息,明年还会加速升息。

彭博报导,太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)乃至於TIAA全球资產管理公司认为,美国长债殖利率劲扬,反映市场视川普胜选为通胀上扬的徵兆。也就是说,Fed依照职责,必须迅速因应。

Pimco的史格马岱(Scott Mather)认为,Fed明年底可能升息3次。

交换契约交易所显示的升息周期更快,隔夜指数交换契约暗示两年內基准利率会升到1.01%,高于上周末的0.82%。


这数字反映川普上台后,市场预测这段期间升息又增加一次。

市场所反映Fed下个月升息的机率达到82%,高于上周末的76%,昨天此机率一度跌到50%以下。川普上台,Fed未来人事和决策也可能出现极大变化。Fed主席耶伦的任期要等到2018年中才届满,但未来如何很难讲。

布鲁金斯研究所研究员亚伦利因(Aaron Klein)说:「川普有权力根本转变央行。」

RBC经济专家发布报告认为,耶伦不会因川普上台而辞职,「我们认为耶伦会视在压力下辞职是直接对Fed独立性的攻击,这是她向来介意的。
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on November 17, 2016, 06:45:41 AM



财经  2016年11月16日
川普经济学发威 美升息机率近100%

(纽约16日讯)美国总统大选前,不少分析师警告,一旦川普入主白宫,联储局(Fed)升息的机率可能隨之降低,但在川普意外出线后,「川普经济学」(Trumpenomics)发威,利率期货显示,美国12月升息几乎是板上定钉,升息机率逼近100%。

《彭博资讯》报导,期货市场行情表明,联储局在12月13日-14日举行的今年最后一次政策会议上採取行动的机率现已达到大约94%,创出了今年以来的最高水平。

川普的財政开支计划致使市场认定,隨著通胀预期的上升,联储局可能会加快加息脚步。

加拿大皇家银行驻悉尼经济及固定收益策略师王素琳(译音)说,「2017年以及之后的美国经济成长前景,可能已多了几分光明。于是市场將12月行动,预期推高到了差不多板上钉钉的地步,儘管我们的確有必要先对川普及其新政府有一个更加清晰的认识。」


美债殖利率升高

《彭博》债券交易数据显示,东京时间周三上午10时,基准10年期美国国债殖利率基本持平,报2.22%。这一2026年11月到期、票面利率为2%的债券价格报982/32。

联储局12月加息的可能性,已较本月初时的68%显著增加。用以衡量债券存续期內消费者价格预期的10年期美国国债,与相同期限通胀掛鉤国债之间的殖利率差,周一升到了1.97%的高点。
Title: Re: FED
Post by: king on November 17, 2016, 06:46:31 AM