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Other Investments => Global Markets => Topic started by: king on January 09, 2016, 05:54:20 AM

Title: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 05:54:20 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 05:59:31 AM

2044 on 31/12/15
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 06:02:12 AM

On the verge of

Death Cross ??
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 07:32:49 AM

2015  high   2135

2015  low    1867
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:13:34 AM

Goldman trims S&P 500 earnings forecast: Here's why
Holly Ellyatt   | @HollyEllyatt
15 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Goldman Sachs has lowered its S&P 500 earnings forecast and highlighted key issues for 2016 that investors should watch out for in the year ahead.

Goldman's U.S. equity team, led by chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin, said in a note late on Thursday that it was lowering its S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) forecast by $3 to $106, $117, and $126 for 2015, 2016, and 2017.

The revision reflected annual EPS growth of -7 percent in 2015, +11 percent in 2016 and +8 percent in 2018, the note stated, with the strategists expecting that 2015 was "the worst year for S&P 500 earnings since 2008."

Goldman said the energy sector was "the leading driver of its reduced profit outlook" and expected the sector to post a decline in operating EPS for the first time in 48 years. Energy companies in the U.S., and elsewhere, have taken a beating on the global decline in oil prices which have hit 12-year lows of around $32 this week.

Getty Images
A continuing glut in oil supply and the failure of demand to keep up signals no immediate respite for energy companies – particularly those in the U.S. that are part of the U.S. shale oil revolution. With oil prices falling below the break-even cost for many producers, U.S. shale oil operations have dwindled with producers cutting production, cancelling drilling projects and closing rigs. Earnings have suffered as a result.

"Energy EPS has collapsed along with crude oil prices" Goldman said in the note, warning of only a "modest recovery" in the "rollercoaster path of energy earnings" in 2016.

Workers on Endeavor Energy Resources LP's Big Dog Drilling Rig 22 in the Permian basin outside of Midland, Texas.
How US drillers are beating OPEC's new oil order
"The sector will post an annual operating loss for the first time since our data series began in 1967. Energy EPS are highly sensitive to oil prices but the impact on S&P 500 EPS is more limited. We assume Brent averages $44/barrel in 2016."

Topics to dominate 2016

Goldman said it expected three topics to dominate the earnings discussion in 2016: Margins having peaked, the path of energy EPS and the risk of further economic slowdown.

With energy driving Goldman's outlook lower, the equity team noted that S&P 500 margins had peaked and "plateaued" and that investors should buy stocks with expanding margins.

It noted that the IT sector had contributed to more than half of the total S&P 500 margin expansion since 2009, with Apple the leading contributor to that.

"Apple contributed 22 percent of overall S&P 500 margin expansion since 2009. We expect S&P 500 margins will stay high during next two years but technology margins will peak this year and then decline. We identify 34 firms forecast to raise margins by at least 50 basis points (bp) annually in 2016 and 2017," although they did not identify the companies.

On the wider economic outlook, the team forecast "muted economic growth." "Goldman Sachs Economics forecasts U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth will average 2.2 percent in 2016. A 100 bp shift in GDP growth translates to $6 per share in EPS." The team forecast China GDP growth of 6.4 percent in 2016 and World ex-U.S. GDP growth of 3.7 percent in 2016.

A construction worker passes a piece of framing up to a roofer at an apartment building being built by Anderson Communities Inc. in Lexington, Kentucky.
Can we avoid the Q1 freeze in 2016?
Goldman's S&P 500 top-down forecasts (which look at the overall market) for sales, margin, and EPS forecasts are below bottom-up consensus (which looks at the individual companies), it said.

For 2016, Goldman assumes 4 percent growth in sales per share, 8.8 percent profit margin expansion and 11 percent EPS growth on the S&P 500, versus bottom-up forecasts of 6 percent, 9.6 percent and 18 percent.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:16:51 AM

Keep calm and carry on: Investing in a sell-off
Matt Clinch   | @mattclinch81
9 Hours Ago
COMMENTJoin the Discussion

It's been a record week of selling for global stock markets: Some $2 trillion was been wiped off the value of shares in the last four days. But you won't have seen many professional investors panic-selling.

A cool head usually cashes in during moments like this and a range of top analysts and strategists have been giving their views on how to stay calm and ride this current wave of volatility.

Ramin Nakisa, global asset allocation strategist at UBS, recommends that investors shouldn't take directional bets on markets this year and instead seek out pockets of value in certain regions.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Rough start to 2016? Here's how to trade it
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Jan. 7, 2015.
Correction protection: Where to hide right now

"I don't think it's a buy and hold year, I think you have to stay on your toes," he told CNBC Friday.

"We like risk in DM (developed markets), we like duration in DM. We like DM FX (foreign exchange) versus EM (emerging market) FX, so that's a kind of a hedge against these risk-off moves we've seen over the last week or so."
Nakisa and his team use a price-to-trend ratio to calculate valuations in equities which levels out the major market fluctuations seen in the last 30 years. On this basis, Nakisa said the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index was 30 percent below its long term average and still "cheap" compared to U.S markets. He added that Japan and Australia was also attractive due to more accommodative monetary policy and urged investors to steer clear of emerging markets.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. on Thursday, billionaire investor Mark Cuban revealed he was "doing nothing" about the market sell-off.

"While all the selling seems to be based on China and the price of oil, I really don't know what the long term implications for our stock market is," he wrote in a note. "So I follow the number one rule of investing. When you don't know what to do. Do nothing."
Mohammed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian: THIS dwarfs worries about China
These calming words come after a brutal start to the year for equities. The S&P Global Broad Market index, which tracks global stock performance, has lost $2.23 trillion in market value this year so far. Stark drops in Chinese markets, sliding crude oil prices and geopolitical concerns, among other factors, have contributed to selling across the globe.

Gina Martin Adams at Wells Fargo Securities - like Cuban – wasn't fretting about the sell-off and told CNBC Friday that investors hold "hold tight", "stick to your guns" and "wait it out."

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Investors dump US stocks, seek bond safe haven: BofA
There was even some optimism from Asia despite China being at the epicenter of this latest tremor. The Shanghai composite has already lost 11.7 percent year-to-date due to step fluctuations in the yuan and fears over the policy being implemented by the country's central bank.
However, Jing Ulrich, managing director and vice-chairman of Asia Pacific at JPMorgan Chase, urged investors to look at the volatile market, which is still relatively untouched by foreign buyers.
"At this juncture there is no point in being overly negative, because everyone in the market is already very negative. These are among the cheapest markets in the whole world," she told CNBC Friday.

—CNBC's Ritika Shah contributed to this article.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:18:38 AM

This China stock market is so different than we are used to
Eric Chemi   | Mark Fahey
5 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The one thing to remember about the Chinese stock market is that it operates so differently from U.S. and European markets. First off, the China market is dominated by retail investors, who treat it very much like a casino. Look at this chart:

There are more than 200 million trading accounts in China. That's the same size as America's adult population. And that's one of the main reasons we're seeing so much volatility. FIS Group in a recent report said that more than 90 percent of capital accounts are owned by retail investors, suggesting the wild moves in Chinese stocks is primarily driven by "their market structure" and "trade momentum."

Even though we've seen huge drops in the last week, let's not forget how massive the spikes up have been in the past 10 years. Chinese stock market volatility makes the S&P 500 look almost like a flat line.

Another way to see it: the difference between small and large caps.

Of course small caps anywhere tend to move more than large caps — but in China, that difference is bigger, especially in the past months.

Remember, many Chinese large-cap stocks are primarily state-owned enterprises, so retail traders generally look toward smaller companies to make their quick bucks.

Wu Jinglian, a veteran economist, has said comparing Chinese markets to a casino is actually unfair — to the casinos. He said that at least the casinos have stronger rules, and don't have price manipulation.
That's why when bad news in the economy happens, a spooked and scared set of retail traders will be much quicker to bail versus the more professionally dominated U.S. market.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:20:13 AM

The $6 million bet against emerging markets
Stephanie Yang
5 Hours Ago
COMMENTSStart the Discussion

On a week filled with China concerns and market turmoil, one trader is making a massive bet that it's going to get a lot worse for emerging markets.

"The largest trade in the options market today was in the EEM, the emerging markets ETF,"'s Dan Nathan said Thursday, when one trader bought 100,000 of the June 25-strike puts in EEM for 62 cents per share. Since each options contract covers 100 shares of stock, this is a $6.2 million bet that breaks even if EEM is below $24.20 by June expiration.

So far in 2016, EEM has slid more than 7 percent. A drop to $24.20 would be another 19 percent drop from where the ETF traded on Friday.

Nathan said the next level of support for EEM should come in at $25. However, he said the large trade likely isn't an outright bearish bet, given the targeted expiration date and the out-of-the-money options traded.

Read MoreMohamed El-Erian: THIS dwarfs worries about China

"This is a likely a hedge against an emerging market portfolio, or maybe there's an investor who thinks that puts are the best bang for your buck as far as hedging is concerned," he said on CNBC's "Fast Money."

If news from China gets worse, the EEM is likely to suffer further, given that China holdings make up more than 25 percent of fund's holdings.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:27:29 AM

Taking stock of an awful trading week on Wall Street

By Sue Chang
Published: Jan 8, 2016 6:02 p.m. ET

The global stock markets lost $2.3 trillion in market cap this week. How does that signal for the rest of year?
Time (EST)
8 Jan
An earlier version of this story contained incorrect weekly comparison data. The error has been corrected.

Getty Images
Not a good start to the year!
The market meltdown in China reverberated across the globe in a week that punished U.S. stocks with major benchmarks recording their worst weekly performances in years.

Even after China’s Shanghai stock market recovered Friday to gain 2%, the U.S. market remained volatile with the S&P 500 posting its worst opening week ever.

And there could be more turbulence ahead as history indicates that the trading in the first week of a new year could influence the direction of the market for the remaining 51 weeks.

“For the S&P 500—the first 5 trading day of the new year has predicted the direction of the full year 68% of the time,” according to the WSJ Market Data Group.

The correlation is 66% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.02%

However, investors will be heartened to know that the predictive power of the first week of trading tends to be more relevant when the market is going up rather than down. In fact, during years when the market is down, the first week’s performance as an indicator is no better than 50/50, according to Wall Street Journal data.

Here is how miserable 2016 has been so far.

•The S&P 500 SPX, -1.08%  posted a weekly loss of 6% to close at 1,922.03 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 6.2% to 16,346.45. It was the worst week for stocks on a percentage basis since Sept. 23 2011.

•China’s Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, +1.97%  sank 10% to 3186.41 while the Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.59%  fell 6.7% to 20,453.71, both recording their biggest one-week decline since Aug. 21.

•Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index NIK, -0.39%  shed 7% to 17,697.96, its worst weekly percentage drop since Sept. 4. The index fell five out of the past six weeks.

•The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, -1.49%  skidded 6.7%, its steepest weekly fall since early August 2011.

Altogether, the global stock markets lost $2.3 trillion in market cap in the first four days of 2016, according Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Some $12 billion in funds fled U.S. equities, the largest in 17 weeks, he said. Tech-focused funds were the most severely hit, with $600 million exiting, the biggest in 19 weeks.

If there is any consolation to the miserable start to the new year, it may be that the sizable selloff has triggered a “buy” signal from a technical perspective with 88% of all global equity markets trading below their 200-day moving average and 50-day moving average, Harnett noted.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Still, despite the pervasive bearish sentiment, the strategist believes there is potential for a “multiweek” rally if the Chinese yuan and oil prices stabilize and the U.S. Federal Reserve pauses in its interest hike regime on a weaker U.S. dollar
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:30:11 AM

U.S. stocks see worst opening week ever

By Ellie Ismailidou and Victor Reklaitis
Published: Jan 8, 2016 4:22 p.m. ET

Shares give up strong gains Friday as oil rout resumes
Getty Images
U.S. stocks are trying to recover after getting knocked down this week.
U.S. stocks relinquished an early advance Friday and finished deep in the red, posting their worst opening week in history.

The S&P 500 SPX, -1.08% closed 21.08 points, or 1.1%, lower at 1,922.02, with all 10 of its main sectors in negative territory. Financials and health care were leading the losses, down 1.6% and 1.4% respectively, followed by the energy sector, down 1.3%. The index booked a 6% weekly loss.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.02% dropped 167.65 points, or 1%, to 16,346.45 and reported a 6.2% weekly decline.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.98% ended the day down 45.80 points, or 1%, at 4,643.63 and was down 7.3% over the week. This is the longest losing streak for the index since November 2011.

The strong U.S. jobs report and the stability in Chinese markets helped propel U.S. shares higher in early trade, but the indexes turned lower as oil prices tumbled to new lows CLG6, -1.17% suffering a steep decline in the last thirty minutes of trading.

Also read: Energy companies set for first earnings decline in 48 years: Goldman

The U.S. created 292,000 new jobs in December, the Labor Department said Friday, handily beating the consensus forecast of 215,000 new jobs from a survey of economists polled by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate remained at 5%, largely because almost a half-million people entered the workforce. Employment gains for November and October, meanwhile, were revised higher.

But the strong headline number didn't give stock markets a huge boost, given weakness in the pace of wage growth. Though the jobs data were “impressive,” the muted wage growth missed economists’ expectations, analysts said.

That, in turn, reflects subdued inflation expectations amid a strengthening dollar and falling commodity prices, said Joe Heider, president of Cirrus Wealth Management. “The number one pressure on inflation is wage growth—and we are not seeing any of that,” Heider said.

On Thursday, the S&P closed 2.4% lower, while the Dow DJIA, -1.02%  shed 392 points, or 2.3%.

The effects of the China-inspired selloff lingered Friday as worries about slowing growth in China weighed on oil prices because the world’s second-largest economy is a large importer of commodities, said Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede.

China’s gyrations are expected to continue to affect sentiment despite the fact that the correlation between China’s stock market and the U.S. is low, Pride added.

S&P 500 Index
Mar 15
May 15
Jul 15
Sep 15
Nov 15
Jan 16
Other markets: China’s Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +1.97%  closed 2% higher, undoing some of its decline from earlier this week, which had rattled global markets. The Shanghai index finished down 10% on the week.

European stocks SXXP, -1.49%  suffered their worst week since August 2011, and a key dollar index DXY, +0.08%  advanced. Gold futures GCG6, -0.33%  dropped, though the safety play stayed on track for a weekly gain.

Chinese stocks make a U-turn(1:40)
Chinese stock markets recovered Friday after a tumultuous week. But the WSJ's Andrew Peaple explains why few expect the relative calm to last.

Fed speakers: The strong jobs data now “clear the way for the Federal Reserve to continue its process for hiking rates at its projected pace,” said Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, Market Strategist at Standard Life Investments.

The market-implied expectation is for two rate increases in 2016 whereas the Fed’s own projection is for four hikes. The market is “so far behind the Fed,” Faulkner-MacDonagh said, and the jobs data suggest that “the market is going to have to reprice, not the other way around.”

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said Friday that the baseline projection of four rate hikes in 2016 is more like a “gentle ascension” rather than rocket “shooting straight up.” Earlier in the week Williams said he expected a steady campaign of interest rate rises coming from the U.S. central bank this year, assuming steady growth, more job gains and a rise in inflation.

Individual movers: Apple Inc. shares AAPL, +0.53%  gained 0.5%, on track to snap a two-day losing streak which had brought the stock price under $100 on Thursday as investors worried about iPhone demand.

Apple supplier Cirrus Logic Inc. CRUS, +3.73%  rose 3.7% after falling earlier in the premarket session. The chip company late Thursday cut revenue guidance for its December quarter.

Alcoa Inc. AA, -2.42% lost 2.5% after the aluminum giant announced plans to shut smelter operations in Indiana and curtail refining capacity in Texas.

Gap Inc. GPS, -14.32%  shares plunged 14.3% after the company disclosed a drop in December sales.

FedEx Corp. FDX, +0.09%  shares rose less than 0.1% after European Union regulators approved the shipping company’s takeover of Dutch rival TNT Express NV TNTE, -0.14%

—Anora Mahmudova contributed to this report
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:32:22 AM

Opinion: Don’t let a stock market bounce fool you

By Mark Hulbert
Published: Jan 8, 2016 5:08 a.m. ET

Market timers aren’t yet bearish enough to spark a solid rally
Hulbert Financial Digest
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Don’t be seduced by the U.S. market attempting to recover from its worst-ever start of a new year.

That’s because — quite unexpectedly, I might add — traders in recent sessions have stubbornly refused to become as bearish as they normally do at tradeable bottoms. I initially thought this might have something to do with the Christmas holidays, when many traders weren’t glued to their computer screens. Needless to say, that explanation no longer applies.

Which in turn means that traders must not be taking the market’s recent plunge as seriously as they did previous ones. Consider: even though many smaller-cap indices have now broken their August lows, and some larger-cap indices such as the NYSE Composite NYA, -1.26%   are less than 2% away, the average trader today is nowhere near as bearish as he was at the August lows.

NYSE Composite Index
Aug 15
Sep 15
Oct 15
Nov 15
Dec 15
Jan 16
Hayes Martin, who has extensively and rigorously studied trend changes in the market, concludes from this and other evidence that the market is “dangerous” right now, and that traders therefore should “not jump in at the first sign of a bottom divergence.” Martin is president of Market Extremes, an investment consulting firm in New York.

It was a little more than a year ago when I last checked in with Martin about where the market was headed. He told me at the time that the stock market was “weaker than it looks.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.02%  today is about 1,000 points lower.

In his research, Martin focuses on a number of sentiment indicators. But one index that clearly illustrates what he is referring to is the average recommended equity exposure among short-term stock market timers (as measured by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI). At last August’s lows, this average fell to minus 20.3%, indicating that the average short-timer was allocating more than a fifth of his equity trading portfolio to going short — an aggressive bet that the market would keep going down.

Today, in contrast, the HSNSI stands at 5.7%, or 26 percentage points higher.

Dow, S&P off to their worst start ever for any year(3:12)
Steep falls in Chinese equities spilled over to global markets, driving U.S. markets to their worst-ever start to a year. The Dow Industrials fell nearly 400 points on Thursday. WSJ's Paul Vigna reports on what investors will be monitoring next. Photo:Getty

Contrarians believe that a tradeable bottom won’t be in place until the HSNSI, and other measures of sentiment as well, drop to within at least shouting distance of their August lows. In the meantime, contrarian analysis is mostly neutral on the market’s near-term outlook — not all that different than where the situation stood before Christmas.

One thing contrarian analysis does not do is hazard a guess about when sentiment will reach a bearish-enough extreme to signal a rally worth betting on. But it will most likely take more than just a day or two of low HSNSI readings to do so, since the most significant bottoms are often characterized by stubbornly-held bearishness on the part of the market-timing community.

One thing, though, is clear: We’re not there yet, since — if anything — the market-timers are more stubbornly bullish right now than stubbornly bearish.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:36:03 AM

This is how much the average American investor made last year

By Jessica Marmor Shaw
Published: Jan 8, 2016 1:18 p.m. ET

Visual Capitalist
Average investor performance by region in 2015, according to data from Openfolio.
How’d your portfolio perform last year?

All you had to see was a 1% rise on the year to beat the S&P 500 SPX, -1.08%  , which ended 2015 down 0.7% to snap a three-year winning streak.

But, judging from this Visual Capitalist chart based on data collected by Openfolio, a site on which investors share information about themselves and their investments, most Americans didn’t meet that low threshold. Only one-third of investors made money on the year, according to Openfolio, and the average American lost 3.1%.

There are some notable regional differences in this data, too: perhaps not surprising, given it’s the seat of Wall Street, the Northeast did the best over 2015 with an average decline of 1.7%. More interesting: The Southeast did the poorest.

In general, investors tend to invest in companies that have headquarters near where the live, a trend Openfolio data has shown in the past. Investors in the Northeast, for example, are more heavily invested in financial companies than are others; investors in the West in technology. And for investors in the South, it’s energy. Oil saw what felt like an unending crash in 2015 and took energy stocks along with it: Energy was -- by a huge margin -- the worst performing S&P sector, ending the year down 22%. Overexposure to energy in Southern investors’ portfolios is the main reason that region saw an average decline of nearly 4%.

See also: Man who nailed 2015 oil plunge is predicting a dismal 2016

Markets are off to a scary start in 2016. The average investor is already down 5.1% in 2016 through the end of yesterday’s trading day.

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:39:43 AM

Market Massacre: Worst Ever First Week Of Trading
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 16:03 -0500

Bear Market Book Value China Crude NASDAQ Reality Russell 2000 SocGen Yield Curve

What better analogy than this...


This was the worst first week of the year for US equities... ever!

Dow... (even worse than 2008)




Europe was a disaster...


And epic for China...


And while only Trannies are in a bear market (down 20%) in the US, these 7 developed world markets are already there...(h/t SocGen's Andrew Laphthorne)


*  *  *

So let's look at the week in stocks...

It was all looking so awesome last night...


Futures show the swings better (with China weakness as an early week driver and US as late-week driver)...


Small Caps and Trannies are down around 7% this week, S&P best but still down over 5% (and down 6 of the last 7 days)

S&P down 5.3% - worst week since Black Monday
Dow Industrials down 5.6% - worst week since Black Monday
Small Caps down 6.9% - worst week since Nov 2011 - Russell 2000 lowest close since since Oct 2014
Dow Transports down 7.1% - worst week since Sept 2011 - lowest close since Nov 2013
The Dow is down 1400 points in a week (from 17,660 to 16,250)


Utes managed to end the week unchanged but Homebuilders collapsed... Financials and Materials were next worst...

Financials down 6.6% - worst week since May 2012
Materials down 7.4% - worst week since Sept 2011
Homebuilders down 8.6% - worst since Aug 2011
VIX broke back above 25... (VIX up 60% in 2 weeks - biggest jump since Black Monday)


What did Janet do? Post Fed rate-hike - S&P down 6.5%, Gold up 3%, 30Y Bonds up 1.6%



Stocks are about half-way there...


Since the end of QE3, Trannies are down 20% and only Nasdaq is holding any gains...


The FANTAsy stocks are all red since the end of 2015 (with TSLA and AMZN worst)...


Energy Stocks finally woke up to reality in the credit underlying commodity...


US financials have started to plunge back to credit/yield curve reality...


With MS and GS back below Tangible Book Value for first time in 2 years...




Away from stocks...


Treasury Yields tumbled, closing at their low yields of the year with the belly of the curve outperforming... 10Y yields dropped 14bps this week - the biggest drop in 3 months.


FX markets were volatile but by the end The Dollar Index closed unchanged (against the majors)...


But the USDollar surged 1.5% against Asian FX - its best week in 5 months... (Asian FX is its weakest since April 2009 against the USD)


But AUDJPY - probably the world's most-levered carry trades - collapsed 6.7% this week!! It's worst week since May 2010...


Commodities were very mixed this week...


Gold rallied 4% this week - its best 'first week of the year' since 2008... (best week in 5 months) - breaking 2 key technical levels...


Crude down 5 days in a row touching a $32 handle at the lows... biggest weekly drop since Nov 2014

In Summary - Sell The Dips!

See you all Sunday night!

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Investors seeking safety are greatly rotating from Triple AAA stocks to Gold stocks (h/t SocGen's Andrew Laphthorne)

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 08:58:39 AM

"The Entire Risk Paradigm Is Shifting" - Stocks Join Global 'Reality' Adjustments
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 15:35 -0500

Bear Market China Reality recovery Volatility Yuan

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

The focus on China as if their problems were only Chinese is highly misplaced, though you can understand the appeal of the excuse. This sentiment was expressed over and over today (just as it was in August):

Do we all live in China now? Investors could be excused for thinking that, given that arcane indicators such as a Chinese manufacturing index and the value of the Chinese yuan are inducing nauseating drops in the U.S. stock market. And the surprise halt to trading in the latest Chinese session, a mere 30 minutes after markets opened, has thrown U.S. and European markets into a tailspin.
Last we checked, however, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indexes were composed of U.S. companies that might do some business in China, but still earn the vast majority of their revenue elsewhere. And elsewhere, economic fundamentals are looking way better than the gloomy start to this year’s trading would suggest.
This is one of those forest and trees moments that get caught up on the surface of anachronistic thinking. Even if all that were true, the fact that China is an export economy having trouble finding any sustained and sufficient demand for its industrial capacity is a direct reflection upon global “demand”; which still includes the same business climate that US companies derive their revenue and earnings from.

But it never really is so much about business today as it is risks for business tomorrow. In raw terms, if Chinese firms and its economy can so struggle in this environment it stands to reason to at least contemplate why that might be – and how that might directly reflect on domestic considerations. Further, as noted earlier, risk perceptions have changed as the FOMC is no longer given blanket faith to declare whatever sky color they wish. Stocks really haven’t had much success, overall, in a year and a half; a pause that itself should register as complimentary to the Chinese struggles.

The S&P 500 is down just over 7 percent from its May high, but the average stock in the larger S&P 1500 was down 24 percent from its high as of yesterday’s close, according to new research from Bespoke Investment Group. A bear market is defined as a decline of 20 percent or more, meaning the average stock has already reached that threshold.
As Bespoke points out, the pain in stocks is not just energy-related shares. Small caps are among the hardest hit (the S&P 600 small cap is down an astounding 28% from its high!) as well as consumer discretionary stocks; the very sorts of economically-sensitive issues that should be leading the market if this was just China as China. Instead, they suggest China is, again, finding difficulty in no small part because of intensifying US struggles. That much has been obvious from trade figures which declare in no uncertain terms the great and ongoing lack of US “demand.”

From that visible contradiction, the entire risk paradigm is shifting more so than it already has. Commodities and “money” more broadly are winning the argument, so to speak, having declared long ago greater downside risks. Now that those are becoming rapidly the actual baseline, even for stocks, what is taking place in China is the connected realignment of monetary condition in that frightening direction. Stocks are finding more downside volatility because stock investors are being forced to recognize in truly comprehensive fashion that there is an actual and sizable downside.

ABOOK Jan 2016 Dollar HYG GSG SP500

This is increasingly taking on the proportions of a global reset. As such, the “dollar” stands right in the middle of it as both messenger and agent. You cannot separate China from the whole as China isn’t really the problem but rather the most visible symptom of it. If there were a full recovery as the FOMC claims in moving against the possibility of overheating, financial firms would be at the front of that greedily taking up the mantle of raw financial opportunity. They did so in times past, usually in direct relation to the QE’s – and were only burned for their trouble. There is no recovery opportunity, which is why they have been retreating in “money” in really precipitous fashion.

It is the very mechanism of discounting. The fact that stocks may also be participating is a very important indication of how much that has penetrated into broad and systemic perceptions. China matters, but not so much just for China. The US may look lackluster (to some, a narrowing minority) by comparison to the direction of China’s economy, but that really doesn’t tell us as much about tomorrow as is repeatedly claimed. A chronically ill economy is highly susceptible not to catching fire and taking off, but rather to converging with all the very real disasters already spreading globally – the risk that money markets are increasingly discounting and carrying out. Financial markets are obviously more and more worried that memories of lackluster will be all that there was of the QE-driven cycle.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 01:18:40 PM

Can Anything Prevent a U.S. Stock Market Crash in 2016?
By John Whitefoot, BA Published : October 7, 2015
 U.S. Stock Market CrashIs the U.S. stock market poised to crash in 2016? Absolutely. The writing has been on the wall for ages. It’s not as if anything has happened of late to point to a stock market crash, it’s just that the rest of the investing community is waking up to what we have been pointing out for years.
Stock Market Crash Getting Warmed Up
The stock market is supposed to be a barometer of how well the broader U.S. economy is doing. The stock market is a forward looking indicator. So, in theory, the stronger the stock market, the stronger the U.S. economy.
And by all accounts, the U.S. economy is doing great! Since bottoming in March 2009, the NASDAQ has soared more than 250% and the NYSE is up 130%, while the S&P 500 has gained 182% and the 30-company-strong Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 145%.
But that’s a little misleading. Those gains were fuelled by income-starved investors clutching at cheap money dangled in front of them by the Federal Reserve in the guise of multiple rounds of quantitative easing. This led to lower interest rates and the need for investors to pour more money into the stock market.
Seven years later, the stock market is still trending near record levels. This is in spite of years of underwhelming corporate earnings and revenue growth-or a lack thereof. Companies can only prop up their earnings by cutting costs for so long. And fickle investors can only prop up share prices for so long.
Eventually valuations have to be in sync. The only way that can happen is if investors wait patiently for that to happen. After seven years of easy gains, I doubt investors will wait in the pits. The other option? Investors will get scared and run for the exits, sending stocks reeling.
After years of being on fire, there are indications that this is starting to happen. Since the beginning of 2015, the once high-flying NASDAQ is down almost five percent; the NYSE has lost 11.5% of its value; the Dow Jones is down slightly more than 10%; and the S&P 500 is 8.5% in the red.
Interestingly, the 12-month average level of the S&P 500 has fallen for two straight months. That has only happened twice since 1995: ahead of the dot-com crash and the 2007-2009 bear market. (Source:, September 30, 2015.)
Corporate Earnings and Revenues Deteriorating
The deterioration in the stock market is a reflection of falling revenue and profits and the inevitability of higher interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Not the trifecta that Wall Street is looking for.
Let’s go back in time a little during the halcyon days of yore. 2013 was a fabulous year for the broader stock market; a year in which the S&P 500 soared approximately 30%. Sadly, that increase did not come on the heels of strong earnings and revenue, it was because quarterly results were not as bad as first predicted. And wide-eyed investors rewarded companies for avoiding a worst-case scenario.
In each successive quarter of 2013, a larger number of companies revised their earnings guidance lower. Yes, normally you’d hope for higher. During the first quarter, 78% of S&P 500 companies that provided preannouncements issued negative earnings guidance. That number climbed to 81% in the second quarter, a record 83% in the third quarter, and a new record 88% in the fourth quarter.
With interest rates at zero, the stock market was the only game in town. And investors played it hard and with reckless abandon.
Fast forward to 2015 and little has changed. Thanks to downward revision to earnings, the estimated year-over-year decline for the third quarter is 4.5%; higher than the expected decline of one percent at the start of the quarter. If the index reports a decline in earnings in the third quarter, no matter how small, it will mark the first back-to-back quarter of earnings decline since 2009. (Source:, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
Estimates for third-quarter revenue are equally abysmal at -3.3%. This is also higher than earlier projections of a year-over-year decline of 2.5% at the start of the quarter. Just like earnings, if this holds, this will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue declines since the first quarter of 2009.
Looking ahead, overly optimistic analysts who don’t know the price of a loaf of bread see earnings growth returning in the fourth quarter of 2015 along with record level EPS. And they project revenue growth in the first quarter of 2016.
Unless of course, it’s cold in the January to March period, in which case they’ll blame missed projections on the weather. Even in California.
Stock Market Wildly Overvalued
The stock market is only as strong as the underlying stocks. So is it a real surprise that the stock market is wildly overvalued?
The oft quoted Case Schiller CAPE/PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is overvalued by around 62.5%. Currently sitting at 23.96, the 10-year average is 15. For every $1.00 of earnings a company makes, investors are willing to pay $23.96. The ratio has only been higher three times: 1929, 2000, and 2007. Each time it was followed by a collapse in the stock market. (Source: Yale University, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is the Market Cap to GDP Ratio, which, as the name implies, compares the total price of all publicly traded companies to gross domestic product (GDP), the implication being that stocks and their valuations should bear some relationship to the benefits of investing or not investing.
A reading of 100% suggests U.S. stocks are fairly valued. The higher the ratio is over 100%, the more overvalued the stock market. Conversely, the lower the ratio under 100% the more undervalued. The current reading is 123.6%. The ratio has only been higher once since 1950, in 1999, it was at an eye-watering 153.6%.
A variant of the Market Cap to GDP Ratio is the Wilshire 5000 to GDP. The Wilshire 5000 is a market cap weighted index of all stocks actively traded in the U.S. Despite the grandiose 5000 number, the index contains around 3,690 components. This variant is currently at 124.2%. Since 1970, the ratio has only been higher once; in 2000, when it stood at 136.5%. (Source:, last accessed September 30, 2015.)
Buffett’s two indicators suggest today’s markets are at lofty, unsustainable levels; and that the U.S. economy is not doing nearly as well as we’re led to believe. And it’s only going to get worse.
Rising Interest Rates Shock Global Markets
The U.S. stock market is not an economic island. And U.S. companies are relying more and more on foreign countries for growth. In fact, the percentage of sales from foreign countries for S&P 500 companies has increased for the last five years; to 47.82% in 2014 from 46% in 2009. (Source:, last accessed September 22, 2015.)
But because the global economy is doing so poorly, S&P 500 companies will have to look elsewhere to pick up the slack. Global stock markets are being routed by growing fears for the global economy and a slump in commodity prices. Despite increasing consumer confidence, global markets are at a two-year low.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded the alarm, warning of a possible new financial crisis. Especially in emerging markets, when central banks start to raise interest rates. The U.S. is to make its first move later this year.
That’s bad news for emerging markets anchored to American borrowing rates. Rising global interest rates could usher in a new credit crunch in emerging markets as businesses awash in cheap money (debt) are pushed to the limit.
The debt of non-financial firms in emerging market economies quadrupled from $4.0 trillion in 2004 to over $18.0 trillion in 2014. The ongoing result? Business debt as a share of economic output has soared from less than half in 2014 to almost 75%. (Source:, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
China has led the charge to higher debt followed closely by other emerging economies including Turkey, Chile, and Brazil-all of which are vulnerable in a higher interest rate environment.
Emerging markets are wholly unprepared to meet higher borrowing costs. And the world could experience a new rash of corporate failures. Just as it did in the U.S. (and still could), local banks who bought much of this new debt could tighten lending, putting a halt on potential growth. For a case study, consider the U.S. credit crisis of 2008-09.
Corporate stagnation could spill over to the financial sector as banks continue to reign in lending. This translates into reduced economic activity and ongoing losses to the financial sector.
Easy monetary policies might be advantageous to advanced economies, but the same cannot be said for emerging markets. In fact, rising interest rates in the United States could unleash an unforeseen economic crisis trilogy that started in U.S. mortgage markets, spread to the eurozone, and is heading to emerging markets. (Source:, September 18, 2015.)
That doesn’t mean advanced economies are in the clear. Borrowing has risen fastest in sectors most vulnerable to an economic downturn, including oil and gas and construction.
A Global Stock Market Crash in 2016
Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy that was supposed to kick-start the economy has left the U.S. stock market wildly overvalued. On top of that, cheap money translated into an unprecedented borrowing binge from companies around the world most susceptible to an economic downturn and rising interest rates.
In the midst of a weakening global economy, stagnant wages, and non-existent savings, an increase in interest rates from zero to historical levels near three percent could cripple huge portions of the U.S. and global economies and stock markets around the world.
In 2016, interest rates will start to rise, cobbling cash poor Americans; negatively impacting corporate America, earnings, and share prices. Rising interest rates in the U.S. also have the potential to dismantle companies in emerging markets and seize up growth in places like the eurozone, Japan, and China.
What can central banks do to help combat the next downturn besides lower interest rates? Not much. And as we’ve seen, even that hasn’t helped.
The U.S. stock market has been living on borrowed time. And it’s time for payback. 2016 could very well be the year the U.S. stock market collapses.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: CurryLee on January 09, 2016, 01:22:30 PM
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 02:49:14 PM

Can Anything Prevent a U.S. Stock Market Crash in 2016?
By John Whitefoot, BA Published : October 7, 2015
 U.S. Stock Market CrashIs the U.S. stock market poised to crash in 2016? Absolutely. The writing has been on the wall for ages. It’s not as if anything has happened of late to point to a stock market crash, it’s just that the rest of the investing community is waking up to what we have been pointing out for years.
Stock Market Crash Getting Warmed Up
The stock market is supposed to be a barometer of how well the broader U.S. economy is doing. The stock market is a forward looking indicator. So, in theory, the stronger the stock market, the stronger the U.S. economy.
And by all accounts, the U.S. economy is doing great! Since bottoming in March 2009, the NASDAQ has soared more than 250% and the NYSE is up 130%, while the S&P 500 has gained 182% and the 30-company-strong Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 145%.
But that’s a little misleading. Those gains were fuelled by income-starved investors clutching at cheap money dangled in front of them by the Federal Reserve in the guise of multiple rounds of quantitative easing. This led to lower interest rates and the need for investors to pour more money into the stock market.
Seven years later, the stock market is still trending near record levels. This is in spite of years of underwhelming corporate earnings and revenue growth-or a lack thereof. Companies can only prop up their earnings by cutting costs for so long. And fickle investors can only prop up share prices for so long.
Eventually valuations have to be in sync. The only way that can happen is if investors wait patiently for that to happen. After seven years of easy gains, I doubt investors will wait in the pits. The other option? Investors will get scared and run for the exits, sending stocks reeling.
After years of being on fire, there are indications that this is starting to happen. Since the beginning of 2015, the once high-flying NASDAQ is down almost five percent; the NYSE has lost 11.5% of its value; the Dow Jones is down slightly more than 10%; and the S&P 500 is 8.5% in the red.
Interestingly, the 12-month average level of the S&P 500 has fallen for two straight months. That has only happened twice since 1995: ahead of the dot-com crash and the 2007-2009 bear market. (Source:, September 30, 2015.)
Corporate Earnings and Revenues Deteriorating
The deterioration in the stock market is a reflection of falling revenue and profits and the inevitability of higher interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Not the trifecta that Wall Street is looking for.
Let’s go back in time a little during the halcyon days of yore. 2013 was a fabulous year for the broader stock market; a year in which the S&P 500 soared approximately 30%. Sadly, that increase did not come on the heels of strong earnings and revenue, it was because quarterly results were not as bad as first predicted. And wide-eyed investors rewarded companies for avoiding a worst-case scenario.
In each successive quarter of 2013, a larger number of companies revised their earnings guidance lower. Yes, normally you’d hope for higher. During the first quarter, 78% of S&P 500 companies that provided preannouncements issued negative earnings guidance. That number climbed to 81% in the second quarter, a record 83% in the third quarter, and a new record 88% in the fourth quarter.
With interest rates at zero, the stock market was the only game in town. And investors played it hard and with reckless abandon.
Fast forward to 2015 and little has changed. Thanks to downward revision to earnings, the estimated year-over-year decline for the third quarter is 4.5%; higher than the expected decline of one percent at the start of the quarter. If the index reports a decline in earnings in the third quarter, no matter how small, it will mark the first back-to-back quarter of earnings decline since 2009. (Source:, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
Estimates for third-quarter revenue are equally abysmal at -3.3%. This is also higher than earlier projections of a year-over-year decline of 2.5% at the start of the quarter. Just like earnings, if this holds, this will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue declines since the first quarter of 2009.
Looking ahead, overly optimistic analysts who don’t know the price of a loaf of bread see earnings growth returning in the fourth quarter of 2015 along with record level EPS. And they project revenue growth in the first quarter of 2016.
Unless of course, it’s cold in the January to March period, in which case they’ll blame missed projections on the weather. Even in California.
Stock Market Wildly Overvalued
The stock market is only as strong as the underlying stocks. So is it a real surprise that the stock market is wildly overvalued?
The oft quoted Case Schiller CAPE/PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is overvalued by around 62.5%. Currently sitting at 23.96, the 10-year average is 15. For every $1.00 of earnings a company makes, investors are willing to pay $23.96. The ratio has only been higher three times: 1929, 2000, and 2007. Each time it was followed by a collapse in the stock market. (Source: Yale University, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is the Market Cap to GDP Ratio, which, as the name implies, compares the total price of all publicly traded companies to gross domestic product (GDP), the implication being that stocks and their valuations should bear some relationship to the benefits of investing or not investing.
A reading of 100% suggests U.S. stocks are fairly valued. The higher the ratio is over 100%, the more overvalued the stock market. Conversely, the lower the ratio under 100% the more undervalued. The current reading is 123.6%. The ratio has only been higher once since 1950, in 1999, it was at an eye-watering 153.6%.
A variant of the Market Cap to GDP Ratio is the Wilshire 5000 to GDP. The Wilshire 5000 is a market cap weighted index of all stocks actively traded in the U.S. Despite the grandiose 5000 number, the index contains around 3,690 components. This variant is currently at 124.2%. Since 1970, the ratio has only been higher once; in 2000, when it stood at 136.5%. (Source:, last accessed September 30, 2015.)
Buffett’s two indicators suggest today’s markets are at lofty, unsustainable levels; and that the U.S. economy is not doing nearly as well as we’re led to believe. And it’s only going to get worse.
Rising Interest Rates Shock Global Markets
The U.S. stock market is not an economic island. And U.S. companies are relying more and more on foreign countries for growth. In fact, the percentage of sales from foreign countries for S&P 500 companies has increased for the last five years; to 47.82% in 2014 from 46% in 2009. (Source:, last accessed September 22, 2015.)
But because the global economy is doing so poorly, S&P 500 companies will have to look elsewhere to pick up the slack. Global stock markets are being routed by growing fears for the global economy and a slump in commodity prices. Despite increasing consumer confidence, global markets are at a two-year low.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded the alarm, warning of a possible new financial crisis. Especially in emerging markets, when central banks start to raise interest rates. The U.S. is to make its first move later this year.
That’s bad news for emerging markets anchored to American borrowing rates. Rising global interest rates could usher in a new credit crunch in emerging markets as businesses awash in cheap money (debt) are pushed to the limit.
The debt of non-financial firms in emerging market economies quadrupled from $4.0 trillion in 2004 to over $18.0 trillion in 2014. The ongoing result? Business debt as a share of economic output has soared from less than half in 2014 to almost 75%. (Source:, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
China has led the charge to higher debt followed closely by other emerging economies including Turkey, Chile, and Brazil-all of which are vulnerable in a higher interest rate environment.
Emerging markets are wholly unprepared to meet higher borrowing costs. And the world could experience a new rash of corporate failures. Just as it did in the U.S. (and still could), local banks who bought much of this new debt could tighten lending, putting a halt on potential growth. For a case study, consider the U.S. credit crisis of 2008-09.
Corporate stagnation could spill over to the financial sector as banks continue to reign in lending. This translates into reduced economic activity and ongoing losses to the financial sector.
Easy monetary policies might be advantageous to advanced economies, but the same cannot be said for emerging markets. In fact, rising interest rates in the United States could unleash an unforeseen economic crisis trilogy that started in U.S. mortgage markets, spread to the eurozone, and is heading to emerging markets. (Source:, September 18, 2015.)
That doesn’t mean advanced economies are in the clear. Borrowing has risen fastest in sectors most vulnerable to an economic downturn, including oil and gas and construction.
A Global Stock Market Crash in 2016
Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy that was supposed to kick-start the economy has left the U.S. stock market wildly overvalued. On top of that, cheap money translated into an unprecedented borrowing binge from companies around the world most susceptible to an economic downturn and rising interest rates.
In the midst of a weakening global economy, stagnant wages, and non-existent savings, an increase in interest rates from zero to historical levels near three percent could cripple huge portions of the U.S. and global economies and stock markets around the world.
In 2016, interest rates will start to rise, cobbling cash poor Americans; negatively impacting corporate America, earnings, and share prices. Rising interest rates in the U.S. also have the potential to dismantle companies in emerging markets and seize up growth in places like the eurozone, Japan, and China.
What can central banks do to help combat the next downturn besides lower interest rates? Not much. And as we’ve seen, even that hasn’t helped.
The U.S. stock market has been living on borrowed time. And it’s time for payback. 2016 could very well be the year the U.S. stock market collapses.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 09, 2016, 02:51:31 PM

Can Anything Prevent a U.S. Stock Market Crash in 2016?
By John Whitefoot, BA Published : October 7, 2015
 U.S. Stock Market CrashIs the U.S. stock market poised to crash in 2016? Absolutely. The writing has been on the wall for ages. It’s not as if anything has happened of late to point to a stock market crash, it’s just that the rest of the investing community is waking up to what we have been pointing out for years.
Stock Market Crash Getting Warmed Up
The stock market is supposed to be a barometer of how well the broader U.S. economy is doing. The stock market is a forward looking indicator. So, in theory, the stronger the stock market, the stronger the U.S. economy.
And by all accounts, the U.S. economy is doing great! Since bottoming in March 2009, the NASDAQ has soared more than 250% and the NYSE is up 130%, while the S&P 500 has gained 182% and the 30-company-strong Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 145%.
But that’s a little misleading. Those gains were fuelled by income-starved investors clutching at cheap money dangled in front of them by the Federal Reserve in the guise of multiple rounds of quantitative easing. This led to lower interest rates and the need for investors to pour more money into the stock market.
Seven years later, the stock market is still trending near record levels. This is in spite of years of underwhelming corporate earnings and revenue growth-or a lack thereof. Companies can only prop up their earnings by cutting costs for so long. And fickle investors can only prop up share prices for so long.
Eventually valuations have to be in sync. The only way that can happen is if investors wait patiently for that to happen. After seven years of easy gains, I doubt investors will wait in the pits. The other option? Investors will get scared and run for the exits, sending stocks reeling.
After years of being on fire, there are indications that this is starting to happen. Since the beginning of 2015, the once high-flying NASDAQ is down almost five percent; the NYSE has lost 11.5% of its value; the Dow Jones is down slightly more than 10%; and the S&P 500 is 8.5% in the red.
Interestingly, the 12-month average level of the S&P 500 has fallen for two straight months. That has only happened twice since 1995: ahead of the dot-com crash and the 2007-2009 bear market. (Source:, September 30, 2015.)
Corporate Earnings and Revenues Deteriorating
The deterioration in the stock market is a reflection of falling revenue and profits and the inevitability of higher interest rates courtesy of the Federal Reserve. Not the trifecta that Wall Street is looking for.
Let’s go back in time a little during the halcyon days of yore. 2013 was a fabulous year for the broader stock market; a year in which the S&P 500 soared approximately 30%. Sadly, that increase did not come on the heels of strong earnings and revenue, it was because quarterly results were not as bad as first predicted. And wide-eyed investors rewarded companies for avoiding a worst-case scenario.
In each successive quarter of 2013, a larger number of companies revised their earnings guidance lower. Yes, normally you’d hope for higher. During the first quarter, 78% of S&P 500 companies that provided preannouncements issued negative earnings guidance. That number climbed to 81% in the second quarter, a record 83% in the third quarter, and a new record 88% in the fourth quarter.
With interest rates at zero, the stock market was the only game in town. And investors played it hard and with reckless abandon.
Fast forward to 2015 and little has changed. Thanks to downward revision to earnings, the estimated year-over-year decline for the third quarter is 4.5%; higher than the expected decline of one percent at the start of the quarter. If the index reports a decline in earnings in the third quarter, no matter how small, it will mark the first back-to-back quarter of earnings decline since 2009. (Source:, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
Estimates for third-quarter revenue are equally abysmal at -3.3%. This is also higher than earlier projections of a year-over-year decline of 2.5% at the start of the quarter. Just like earnings, if this holds, this will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue declines since the first quarter of 2009.
Looking ahead, overly optimistic analysts who don’t know the price of a loaf of bread see earnings growth returning in the fourth quarter of 2015 along with record level EPS. And they project revenue growth in the first quarter of 2016.
Unless of course, it’s cold in the January to March period, in which case they’ll blame missed projections on the weather. Even in California.
Stock Market Wildly Overvalued
The stock market is only as strong as the underlying stocks. So is it a real surprise that the stock market is wildly overvalued?
The oft quoted Case Schiller CAPE/PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is overvalued by around 62.5%. Currently sitting at 23.96, the 10-year average is 15. For every $1.00 of earnings a company makes, investors are willing to pay $23.96. The ratio has only been higher three times: 1929, 2000, and 2007. Each time it was followed by a collapse in the stock market. (Source: Yale University, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is the Market Cap to GDP Ratio, which, as the name implies, compares the total price of all publicly traded companies to gross domestic product (GDP), the implication being that stocks and their valuations should bear some relationship to the benefits of investing or not investing.
A reading of 100% suggests U.S. stocks are fairly valued. The higher the ratio is over 100%, the more overvalued the stock market. Conversely, the lower the ratio under 100% the more undervalued. The current reading is 123.6%. The ratio has only been higher once since 1950, in 1999, it was at an eye-watering 153.6%.
A variant of the Market Cap to GDP Ratio is the Wilshire 5000 to GDP. The Wilshire 5000 is a market cap weighted index of all stocks actively traded in the U.S. Despite the grandiose 5000 number, the index contains around 3,690 components. This variant is currently at 124.2%. Since 1970, the ratio has only been higher once; in 2000, when it stood at 136.5%. (Source:, last accessed September 30, 2015.)
Buffett’s two indicators suggest today’s markets are at lofty, unsustainable levels; and that the U.S. economy is not doing nearly as well as we’re led to believe. And it’s only going to get worse.
Rising Interest Rates Shock Global Markets
The U.S. stock market is not an economic island. And U.S. companies are relying more and more on foreign countries for growth. In fact, the percentage of sales from foreign countries for S&P 500 companies has increased for the last five years; to 47.82% in 2014 from 46% in 2009. (Source:, last accessed September 22, 2015.)
But because the global economy is doing so poorly, S&P 500 companies will have to look elsewhere to pick up the slack. Global stock markets are being routed by growing fears for the global economy and a slump in commodity prices. Despite increasing consumer confidence, global markets are at a two-year low.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded the alarm, warning of a possible new financial crisis. Especially in emerging markets, when central banks start to raise interest rates. The U.S. is to make its first move later this year.
That’s bad news for emerging markets anchored to American borrowing rates. Rising global interest rates could usher in a new credit crunch in emerging markets as businesses awash in cheap money (debt) are pushed to the limit.
The debt of non-financial firms in emerging market economies quadrupled from $4.0 trillion in 2004 to over $18.0 trillion in 2014. The ongoing result? Business debt as a share of economic output has soared from less than half in 2014 to almost 75%. (Source:, last accessed September 29, 2015.)
China has led the charge to higher debt followed closely by other emerging economies including Turkey, Chile, and Brazil-all of which are vulnerable in a higher interest rate environment.
Emerging markets are wholly unprepared to meet higher borrowing costs. And the world could experience a new rash of corporate failures. Just as it did in the U.S. (and still could), local banks who bought much of this new debt could tighten lending, putting a halt on potential growth. For a case study, consider the U.S. credit crisis of 2008-09.
Corporate stagnation could spill over to the financial sector as banks continue to reign in lending. This translates into reduced economic activity and ongoing losses to the financial sector.
Easy monetary policies might be advantageous to advanced economies, but the same cannot be said for emerging markets. In fact, rising interest rates in the United States could unleash an unforeseen economic crisis trilogy that started in U.S. mortgage markets, spread to the eurozone, and is heading to emerging markets. (Source:, September 18, 2015.)
That doesn’t mean advanced economies are in the clear. Borrowing has risen fastest in sectors most vulnerable to an economic downturn, including oil and gas and construction.
A Global Stock Market Crash in 2016
Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s easy monetary policy that was supposed to kick-start the economy has left the U.S. stock market wildly overvalued. On top of that, cheap money translated into an unprecedented borrowing binge from companies around the world most susceptible to an economic downturn and rising interest rates.
In the midst of a weakening global economy, stagnant wages, and non-existent savings, an increase in interest rates from zero to historical levels near three percent could cripple huge portions of the U.S. and global economies and stock markets around the world.
In 2016, interest rates will start to rise, cobbling cash poor Americans; negatively impacting corporate America, earnings, and share prices. Rising interest rates in the U.S. also have the potential to dismantle companies in emerging markets and seize up growth in places like the eurozone, Japan, and China.
What can central banks do to help combat the next downturn besides lower interest rates? Not much. And as we’ve seen, even that hasn’t helped.
The U.S. stock market has been living on borrowed time. And it’s time for payback. 2016 could very well be the year the U.S. stock market collapses.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 10, 2016, 10:01:54 AM

A stock-market crash of 50%+ would not be a surprise — or the worst-case scenario

Warren Buffett indicator
Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
No one likes to be the bearer of bad news, especially when it comes to stock prices.

But someone has to do it!

So here goes:

By many, many historically predictive valuation meassures, stocks are overvalued to the tune of 75%-100%.

In the past, when stocks have been this overvalued, they have often “corrected” by crashing (1929, 1987, 2000, 2007, for example) . They have also sometimes corrected by moving sideways and down for a long, long time (1901-1920, 1966-1982, for example).

After long eras of over-valuation, like the period we have been in since the late 1990s (with the notable exceptions of the lows after the 2000 and 2007 crashes), stocks have also often transitioned into an era of undervaluation, often one that lasts for a decade or more.

In short, stocks are so expensive on historically predictive measures that the annual returns over the next decade are likely to net out to about 0% per year. 

How we get there is anyone’s guess. 


A stock-market crash of ~50% from the peak would not be a surprise. It would also not be the “worst-case scenario,” by any means. The “worst-case scenario,” which has actually been a common scenario over history, is that stocks would drop by, say 75% peak to trough.

Those are the facts.

Why isn’t anyone talking about those facts?

Three reasons:

First, as mentioned, no one in the financial community likes to hear bad news or to be the bearer of bad news when it comes to stock prices. It’s bad for business.
Second, valuation is nearly useless as a market-timing indicator. 
Third, yes, there is a (probably small) chance that it’s “different this time,” and all the historically predictive valuation measures are out-dated and no longer predictive.
The third reason is the one that everyone who is bullish about stocks these days is implicitly or explicitly relying on: “It’s different this time.”

Just so you know, every time there is a long bull market like the one we’ve had, people come up with lots of reasons to explain why it’s different this time.  (And understandably so! Everyone wants the bull market to continue, and no one wants to miss further gains.) They did that in the late 1920s. They did that in the late 1990s. They did that in 2007. Usually, however, it isn’t different this time, and normality reasserts itself with a vengeance.

As for timing… Unfortunately, even if historical valuation measures are still valid, and stocks are poised to have another lousy decade,  today’s valuations won’t help you predict what the market will do over the next year or two.

And it’s almost as painful to miss further market gains by turning cautious too early than it is to get obliterated in a crash. (Almost.)

So that’s why almost everyone’s still bullish.

But what today’s valuations do tell us is that no one should be surprised if stocks crash 50% or more or are still trading around the current level in a decade.

 Now you know!

(None of this means that you should sell your stocks, by the way. I own stocks, and I’m not selling. It just means that you should be mentally and financially prepared for a major drawdown. You should also be diversified.)

Here are some of the valuation details…

Stocks are wildly overvalued on historically predictive measures
According to several historically valid measures, stocks are now more expensive than they have been at any time in the past 130 years, with the exception of 1929 and 2000 (and we know what happened in those years).

For example, the chart below is from Yale professor Robert Shiller. It shows the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 for the past 130 years.

As you can see, the current PE ratio of at least 26 is miles above the long-term average of 15. In fact, it is higher than at any point in the 20th century, with the exception of the months that preceded the two biggest stock-market crashes.


Shiller PE with rates
Robert Shiller
Does a high PE mean the market is going to crash? No. Sometimes, as in 2000, the PE just keeps getting higher for a while. But, eventually, the rubber band snaps back. And in the past — without exception — a PE as high as today’s has foreshadowed lousy returns for the next seven to 10 years.

What about other valuation measures? Most of them paint the same picture.

Here, for example, are a few recent charts from Doug Short, one of the best market-chart makers around.

The first chart plots four valuation measures — the Shiller PE ratio above, another PE ratio (different calculation), the “Q ratio” (a measure of price to replacement cost), and a regression analysis for stocks themselves. Same message: Averaging the four suggests that stocks are ~80% overvalued.


Four valuation indicators
Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
The average:


Average of four valuation
Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
And for good measure, here’s another ratio — one that is ###### referred to as “Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation measure.” (Because he once said it was.)

This one charts the collective value of all stocks to the size of the economy (GDP). It recently hit its second-highest level ever.


Warren Buffett indicator
Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
You can quibble with any of these measures. But, collectively, they all say the same thing: Stocks are very expensive.

But isn’t it ‘different this time’?
Every time stocks get expensive, some people argue “it’s different this time.”

This time, they say, stock valuations like today’s are justified, and stock prices will just keep going up.

Usually, however, it’s not different.

Eventually, stock prices revert to the mean, usually violently. That’s why the words, “it’s different this time” are described as the “four most-expensive words in the English language.”

But, yes, it’s possible that it’s “different this time.” Sometimes things do change, and investors clinging to old measures miss big gains before they realize their mistake.

It’s possible, for example, that Shiller’s PE ratio is no longer valid. Shiller’s friend, Professor Jeremy Siegel from Wharton, thinks that several things have changed and that stocks are still undervalued.

It certainly seems possible that the future average of Shiller’s PE ratio will be significantly higher than it has been in the past 130 years. But it would take a major change indeed for the average PE ratio to shift upward by, say, 50%.

While we’re at it, please note something else in the Shiller chart above: Sometimes — as in the entire first 70 years of the past century — PEs (blue line) can be low even when interest rates (red line) are low. That’s worth noting, because today you often hear bulls say that today’s high PEs are justified by today’s low-interest rates.

Even if this were true — even if history did not clearly show that you could have low PEs with low rates — this argument would not protect you from future losses, because today’s low rates could eventually regress upward to normal. But it’s just not true that low rates always mean high PEs.

And in case some of your bullish friends have convinced you that Shiller’s PE analysis is irrelevant, check out the chart below.

It’s from fund manager John Hussman. It shows six valuation measures in addition to the Shiller PE that have been highly predictive of future returns. The left scale shows the predicted 10-year return for stocks according to each valuation measure. The colored lines (except green) show the predicted return for each measure at any given time. The green line is the actual return over the 10 years from that point. (It ends 10 years ago.)

Today, the average expected return for the next 10 years is slightly positive — just under 2% a year. That’s not horrible. But it’s a far cry from the 10% long-term average.


Chart of stock market valuation
John Hussman, Hussman Funds

In conclusion …
Stocks are priced to deliver lousy returns over the next seven to 10 years. I would not be surprised to see the stock market drop sharply from this level, perhaps as much as 50% over a couple of years.

None of this means for sure that the market will crash or that you should sell stocks. (I own stocks, and I’m not selling them.) It does mean, however, that you should be mentally prepared for the possibility of a major pullback and lousy long-term returns.

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 10, 2016, 10:03:52 AM

S&P 500 'in a world of pain' so sell any rally: Technician
Re-Essa Buckels   | @ReessaBuckels
9 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks are off to their worst ever start for a new year. But if investors think the sell-off is a buying opportunity, a top technician has one simple message for them.

No way.

"The calendar may have changed but the game remained the same, and that game is China…it's the single most important macro proxy we have" said Rich Ross of Evercore ISI on CNBC's "Fast Money" recently. This week, investors ran from a swooning Chinese stock market and a sharp fall in the yuan, China's currency.
In the past year, the S&P 500 Index and the yuan have traded together. But the Chinese government's decision to devalue its currency in August sparked a torrent of selling in the U.S. as investors feared a weaker Chinese economy could hurt U.S. corporate profits.
Read MoreChina 'riding a bronco' with its currency

According to Ross, continued weakness in the yuan should weigh on oil, U.S. transports and U.S. equities. Some have even argued it could spark a global currency war, as economies move to devalue their currencies in order to compete with cheaper Chinese goods.

"That's why you care about the currency, that's why you care about China" said Ross.

The transportation stocks are off 24 percent since its February 2015 high. "This is not a good sign for the broader markets" said Ross.

By Ross's chart work, the decline in the Chinese currency, along with the shift in investor sentiment could spell even more trouble for the S&P 500 Index. According to Ross, if the S&P 500 breaks below its key support level of 1990, it could retest the lows of 1900. "Even if there's a bounce, fade all rallies" said Ross.

At 1900, Ross expects the index to find support, as it would bump up against its 150-week moving average.

"I think we're all in a world of pain here. At a minimum, I think we test that 1900, we can cross that bridge when we get there" said Ross.
Re-Essa Buckels CNBC
Re-Essa Buckels
Segment producer

S&P 500   1922.03       -21.06   -1.08%
Cramer: This is when the selling will stop
8 stocks to buy after 2016's rocky start
Cramer's game plan: Pain now, gain later
Soros: It's the 2008 crisis all over again
Analyst: China not THE cause for sell-off
Next up for stocks after trillion-dollar wipeout
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 10, 2016, 10:05:08 AM

Something 'massive' is happening in the economy: Pal
Leanne Miller   | @LeanneBMiller
3 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

China's market turmoil and an extended downturn in oil wreaked havoc on stocks this week, with the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average off to their worst start of a year.
The sell-off has some questioning the strength of the U.S. economy, but few think the world's largest growth center is at risk for a contraction. However, one widely regarded investor says there's little debate: the U.S. is likely already in a recession—and he claims to have hard numbers to bolster his case.
Looking at International Monetary Fund data, "the year-over-year change in global exports is at the second lowest level since 1958," Raoul Pal, Publisher of the Global Macro Investor told CNBC's"Fast Money"this week.

Basically, it means economies around the world are shipping their goods at near historically low levels. "Something massive is going on in the global economy and people are missing it," Pal added.

The steep decline in 2015 exports is second only to 2009, when the global recession led to a 37 percent drop in export growth.

Read MoreUS close to recession, world already in one: Pro

There are two main contributing factors to this recession, Pal told CNBC: A resurgent U.S. dollar and China's slowdown. The greenback's strength has helped keep a lid on energy prices, but it's had undeniable spillover effects, the investor said.

"It started unraveling in oil and all commodities, that impacted exports. Everyone had dollar debts and no one had money," Pal added.

The investor correctly predictedthe dollar's surge back in November 2014 on CNBC's "Fast Money". Since that call, the dollar has risen 15 percent—an ascent that Pal believes will only continue due to the shortage of dollars globally.

"I don't think I've ever been this right in my career," Pal said.

The dollar's sustained strength has called into question moves by the Federal Reserve and shaken commodity markets. For the time being, Pal believes the greenback's got nowhere else to go but up –and global markets are going to pay for it.

A man watches stock prices at a brokerage in Beijing, China.
Market sell-off triggers fears of 'Asian flu' again
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Why I'm worried about a recession: Citi strategist

"The markets are following a pattern. Growth has been revised down and it looks like the markets will have to" compensate for the adjustment, Pal said.
"China is certainly a big mess and it's likely to get worse," he said. "Even whether they devalue their currency sharply or slowly, there's still a big mess to work out with all of the debts in the system. I think it's a problem."

Despite the doom and gloom Pal predicted, he suggested one buying opportunity.

"Right now I think one of the best bets in the world is to own the TLT or bonds," Pal said, speaking of the iShares bond exchange traded fund and government debt. "No one is long of bonds and I think the most likely outcome is that the bond market has a huge rally, expressing inflation."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 10, 2016, 10:08:40 AM

This isn't like 2008—but a correction IS coming
Jack Bouroudjian   | @JackBouroudjian
Friday, 8 Jan 2016 | 11:50 AM ET
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Stocks are in uncharted territory with volatility spikes and drops in all of the major equity indices to start the New Year. It has been ugly, with $2.5 trillion in market capitalization being wiped out in the first four trading days of 2016, and may signal a dramatic rise in cross-asset volatility for the rest of 2016.

Why is this all happening? Plain and simple, the path to Federal Reserve monetary-policy normalization will be painful. With divergent monetary policy, there is less scope for suppression of market volatility. The Fed is beginning to tighten and drain liquidity from the markets, utilizing reverse repurchases to provide a soft floor under short-term interest rates.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The Fed said in its minutes that "even after the initial increase in the target range, the stance of policy would remain accommodative. Gradual adjustments in the federal-funds rate would also allow policy makers to assess how the economy was responding to increases in interest rates."

The statement suggests that the Fed will be data dependent and use current economic activity to determine the timing of the next rate increase.

NYSE Trader
A 20-30% correction is possible: Bouroudjian
One of the ancillary effects of this path to normalization is the effect on energy. Dollar strength has put pressure on all dollar-denominated asset classes including the most important geopolitical commodity: Crude.

Crude oil has remained below $40 and is now headed toward $30, which has not happened since 2008. The drop has been steep, but even more important is the velocity at which prices moved. WTI in recent trading broke through the lows from 2008 which immediately drew everyone's attention. Crude oil volatility will continue to affect equities in the U.S. and Europe. If China allows for faster currency depreciation than the financial markets expect, this will increase the downward pressure on crude.

Pumpjacks operated by XX pump petroleum from the ground on September 23, 2014 near Ruehlermoor, Germany.
Predictions: $70 oil, the winner of 2016 & more
Eventually, lower energy prices along with lower input costs for corporate America will be a tailwind for equities. But sovereign wealth funds that are from oil-producing states need to have oil much higher to meet their budgetary needs domestically. This market dynamic will drive the trajectory of global equities.

The level of sovereign wealth funds assets under management as of last week was at 7.2 trillion, with 4.4 trillion originating in commodity and oil-rich nations. With falling crude prices, the pressure on these sovereign wealth funds continues to mount. The need has arisen to repatriate the capital from sovereign wealth funds with spillover effects occurring for global equity markets. When markets move fast they leave no prisoners, it creates a global margin call; investors sell what they "can," not what they "want."

Stephen Weiss
China's problem? It's a teenager: Stephen Weiss
So what does this mean for the average investor? Be alert and defensive as the market corrects. One thing for sure is that we will continue to witness volatility in the capital markets for a prolonged period of time. A 20 percent to 30 percent correction in equity prices would be a healthy move after the recent run-up over the last few years. There will be continued earnings contraction in S&P 500 companies with a stronger U.S. dollar impacting manufacturers adversely.

The strong dollar will exacerbate lower prices for commodities in addition to crude oil. All of this will bring out the "doom and gloomers" including those who claim this is 2008 all over again. Wrong! Remember, bull market corrections are fast and vicious and it will look worst at the bottom. This is not 2008, it is a cyclical correction in a long term bull market. Be ready to put money to work as stocks go on sale throughout this year.

Commentary by Jack Bouroudjian, CEO of Index Futures Group LLC, a registered independent broker, and CIO of Index Capital Partners, a registered commodity-pool operator. He was also a three-term director of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and founder and advisor of UCX (Universal Compute Exchange). Follow him on Twitter@JackBouroudjian.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 11, 2016, 08:33:02 AM

Stock futures sink in pre-market trading, hinting at lower Wall Street open
Javier E. David   | @TeflonGeek
1 Hour Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Lucas Jackson | Reuters
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
U.S. stock futures fell on Sunday, indicating a lower open on Monday and extending a slide that began last week.

Days after Wall Street started the year on an ugly down note, Dow futures opened about 90 points lower, implying triple digit losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. S&P futures shed about 10 points in early Asia trading.

Last week, blue chip and technology shares inaugurated 2016 with their worst ever first week of trading. Investors took fright over the state of China's financial and economic turmoil, and a prolonged slump in crude that—while giving consumers cheaper energy prices—threatens the financial health of major energy producers.

The broad market, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, shed a whopping $1 trillion last week, according to one analyst's estimate.

Read MoreThe market's horrible week, by the numbers

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange September 17, 2008 in New York City. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 449 points today despite American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $85 billion government bailout.
Worried about US recession? It's already here: Pro
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
If you're looking to buy the dip—don't: Analyst

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's campaign of interest rate hikes remains a wild card for investors. The U.S. is currently the only major economy that is still experiencing growth, albeit modest. A growing number of economists expect the pace of growth to soften this year.
Investors will also be watching movements in the currency markets, where the dollar has begun a modest consolidation. Flight-to-safety buying, as well as the prospect of higher rates have boosted the greenback, but the euro has clawed back some ground in recent sessions.

Among major currencies, the risk-averse environment has also broadly lifted the Japanese yen
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 11, 2016, 02:10:50 PM

Poll: Is the sell-off in equity markets overdone? staff   | @CNBC
2 Hours Ago
COMMENTSStart the Discussion

Fred Dufour | AFP | Getty Images
Major stock markets saw significant sell offs on the first week of 2016, with renewed concerns over China exacerbated by rising tensions in the Middle East, lower commodity prices, and a threat to geopolitical stability after North Korea conducted an unexpected nuclear test.

Chinese stocks were suspended from trade twice in just four days, after the CSI300 saw losses exceeding 7 percent on Monday and Thursday, which triggered the new circuit breakers - a market calming regulatory tool introduced at the start of the year, only to be scrapped off by the end of the week. By Friday, the Shanghai composite erased its 2015 gains and fell by 9.97 percent for the week.

Barclays said in a note several factors were likely to have contributed to the sharp corrections in Chinese equity and foreign exchange markets.

A customer holds a 100 Yuan note at a market in Beijing.
This is what Goldman thinks about the yuan
They include the expiration of the share sale ban on major shareholders of listed companies, the introduction of the new circuit-breakers, subdued Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, a measure of factory activities in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and the devaluation of the yuan.
The volatility in Chinese markets spread beyond its borders and led to major indexes around the world registering significant losses for the week.
Stateside, the Dow Jones industrial average shed 6.1 percent, the S&P 500 lost 5.96 percent, and the Nasdaq composite was down 7 percent.
In London, the FTSE 100 was down 5.28 percent for the week.
In this week's Trader Poll, tell us if investors have jumped the gun and overdone the 2016 sell-off:

Is the 2016 sell-off overdone?

Too early to tell
Total Votes: 481
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 11, 2016, 06:09:20 PM

5 reasons a 2007-style real estate meltdown is unlikely now

By Daniel Goldstein
Published: Jan 10, 2016 10:26 a.m. ET

The real-estate industry is on much more solid footing
Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
When it comes to investing in the stock market, you may lose your shirt, but you probably won’t lose your home. In fact, when the equity market gets rough, real estate tends to be a life raft for investors seeking safety.

“Real estate is Americans’ preferred investment for money that they won’t need for at least 10 years and that hasn’t changed,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst with New York-based “Nervous investors always look to real estate rather than shy away from it in times of volatility.”

While stocks around the globe are off to a rough start in 2016, it doesn’t necessarily mean déjà vu all over again, at least when it comes to a repeat of the real estate tumble that began in 2007 but accelerated sharply following the 2008 rout of the equities market, when home prices in late 2011 were down more than 20% from their peak in spring of 2007.

Here’s why you shouldn’t be panicking if you’re looking to buy or sell a home:

Interest rates should stay low

With the latest bout of declining equities, the pace of further Federal Reserve rate increases is likely to slow, according to Kevin Finkel, senior vice president of Resource America Inc. REXI, -1.48%  , a real-estate investment trust in Philadelphia. “It would take a lot more than the volatility we’re seeing now for them to get knocked off the current course of raising rates, but will they slow down [coming rate hikes]? Probably.”

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point last month, the first time since 2006, but minutes from the Dec. 15 to Dec. 16 meeting showed that not all of the bankers were completely on board with the initial rate hike, despite the unanimous vote, because of concerns over inflation being less than expected.

The Fed isn’t “chomping to follow up last month’s rate hike as early as this month, or possibly even in March unless the economy, and possibly inflation, shows more ****** than shown recently,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

While the refinancing boom has slowed, that’s only because the majority of Americans who could refinance to a fixed rate have already done so, so the impact of “rate-shock” when short-term adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) readjust will be minor compared with what happened between 2007 and 2012, when many Americans could no longer afford their new housing payments and defaulted.

Currently, despite an increase in bank repossessions rising almost 60% in November 2015 compared with a year earlier, the percentage of loans in foreclosure nationally is the lowest level since 2007, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Foreclosures reached a peak of 4.6% in 2011 at the height of the real estate bust.

“The recent rise in bank repossessions represents banks flushing out old distress rather than new distress being pushed into the pipeline,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president of Irvine, Calif.- based RealtyTrac, a real-estate research company.

There’s less risk of a new mortgage bubble

Unlike the 2005 to 2012 mortgage meltdown, when so-called liar loans and exploding ARMs flooded the market, the subsequent pullback in credit may have been overly tight, but it does mean in 2016 there are fewer real estate bubbles waiting to pop. While it’s true there are markets that have seen incredibly inflated real-estate values such as San Francisco and New York, it’s not fueled by unsustainably loose credit standards.

“The changes that have taken place over the past five to seven years have built a more stable foundation” in the mortgage industry, said Michael McPartland, a managing director and head of investment finance for North America at Citigroup’s C, -3.01%   private bank. “There just aren’t a lot of the exotic products like interest-only [loans] and super-high loan-to-value [mortgages],” he said. “If things slow down, there will be a contraction, but not a pop.”

McPartland says it may be harder for borrowers to afford a 20% down payment and monthly interest payments that are principal and interest, instead of just interest-only, but the flip side is increased home equity (the national average is 30% equity), so home buyers are less likely to leave the keys on the counter and walk away if things go bad. Foreclosure starts in July of just over 45,000 were the lowest level since November 2005, nearly a 10-year low, according to RealtyTrac.

Foreclosure starts in November 2015 of just over 36,000 were the lowest level since December of 2005, near a 10-year low, according to a Dec. 10 report from real estate data firm RealtyTrac. “What we can expect is for foreclosures to continue falling as banks clear through their backlog of inventory,” Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate in Seattle, told RealtyTrac last month.

Help for first-time home buyers

Last year, the Federal Housing Administration began reducing mortgage insurance premiums on loans by an average of $900 a year, in an effort to nudge first-time home buyers and millennial borrowers who might not have much cash for a down payment to finally enter the housing market. The effort appears to have worked, with FHA loans jumping to 23% of all financed purchases in the second quarter of 2015, up from 19% a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac data. The FHA and other federal moves to increase credit, along with a strengthening economy, may just help boost the market for new mortgages in 2016 as much as 10% over last year despite the increase in interest rates, Mike Fratantoni, the chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said in December.

Those other federal moves include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac making lower down payment loan options available to more borrowers. In 2014, the agencies began to buy loans with just a 3% down payment, or 97% loan-to-value ratio. Fannie Mae also announced in 2015 that it would allow income from a non-borrower household members to be considered as part of a loan applicant’s debt-to-income ratio. That could help some borrowers, who might have family members on Social Security or disability living with them, or a renter in a basement apartment, to boost their income levels and help them qualify for a loan.

Lower oil prices

At the end of 2008, gasoline prices, which had risen to a record $4 a gallon nationwide that summer, had crashed to under $2 a gallon. In that case, the cheap gas (and diesel) wasn’t a good thing, as the worldwide economy was shuddering to a halt.

While China’s economy is still contracting, the U.S. economy isn’t, so the lowest gas prices since 2009, with the national average now under $2 a gallon, are likely to help the housing market.

“The continuing drop in gas prices is freeing up valuable disposable income,” says Resource America’s Finkel, which can help Americans absorb higher rent payments, or move up to a more expensive property.

Job growth

While jobs typically are a lagging indicator of an economic downturn, the U.S. has had a slow but steady rate of job creation for the past five years. Even with weakness seen during the summer, job gains in 2015 will top 2.5 million, making it the second-best calendar year for U.S. job growth in this millennium, after last year’s 3.1 million. The last time more jobs were created in a two-year period was at the height of the dot-com boom, in 1998-1999.

“The economy continues to create jobs, and the quality of jobs being created has improved as the economic recovery has progressed, with professional and business services leading the way,” said Bankrate’s McBride. “This is indicative of an economic recovery that is sustainable.” And while in this economy, wages have been slow to recover, and it’s been a challenge to get long-term unemployed Americans who no longer count in the official jobless statistics to return to the job market, the job growth has been good enough to boost the housing sector and lure millennial borrowers off the fence.

“If wage growth materializes in a broader way, this will be the catalyst for many existing homeowners to put their homes on the market and finally look for the move-up buy, boosting housing and alleviating the inventory shortage,” McBride said.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 11, 2016, 06:12:10 PM

Why is everyone so bearish?

By Avi Gilburt
Published: Jan 10, 2016 12:34 p.m. ET

Getty Images
When I read many of the comments to columns I see posted, the pervasive bearishness is quite striking, whether it is negative about the economy, the market, or just simply overall negative. This applies whether the columns themselves are positive or negative, or whether the site is overall positively or negatively bent.

In my experience, it seems to be that the public (or at least those within the public that post comments) leans bearish much of the time. The only time you see them being bullish is about metals, and the only reason they are bullish metals, is because they think everything else around them is bearish and negative. Why is that?

As one who has always attempted to view markets from an unbiased perspective to determine what the next bigger move will be, it almost seems as though I am fighting an uphill battle whenever I determine we should be looking up in the stock market or down in the metals market. Whenever I write a bearish market column, I see a large number of posts in support of my perspective. But when I write a bullish market column, I am derided and demeaned by posts of how I don't know what I am talking about since the market is clearly going to crash.

Let's face it folks; bearishness sells. Bearishness seems to be what the public wants to see in print. Have you ever wondered why?

Focusing on the negative

Is there an old-timer to whom you have spoken lately who has not mentioned how things were "better back in the day?"

If one were to seriously consider history, on just about every metric, the world is in far better shape than almost any time in history. In fact, one of my favorite rides at Walt Disney World in Florida is the Carousel of Progress, and it was rumored to be Walt's favorite as well. That ride presents how we have technologically progressed through the 20th century, and one cannot deny those significant progressions from a period of time before electricity.

While we are very concerned about war and terrorism today, are we any worse than World War I, World War II, our own Civil War, etc.? We gripe about wages, poverty, and the value of the dollar, but poverty is at historic lows, and the poor have things today that rich people couldn't dream about 100 years ago. As much as we complain about our current health-care system, do you recognize the leaps and bounds we've taken in the past 100 years in medicine/health/science? Are we now living longer or shorter lives than we were 100 years ago?

From my perspective, we have clearly been on a long term path of progression. While we certainly have experienced periods of regressions, overall, we seem to have historically been on a positive path. Yet, most seem to only focus upon the negative regressions. Why?

Roy F. Baumeister, a professor of social psychology at Florida State University, captured the idea in the title of a journal article he co-authored in 2001, "Bad Is Stronger Than Good," which appeared in The Review of General Psychology.

In that article, he explained that those who are "more attuned to bad things would have been more likely to survive threats and, consequently, would have increased the probability of passing along their genes ... Survival requires urgent attention to possible bad outcomes but less urgent with regard to good ones."

This seems to cause man to become hyper-focused on the negative, which is driven by his innate desire to survive. Furthermore, when we consider that fear is the strongest emotion generated by our brain stem, we can develop a negativity loop that drives us to continually focus upon the negative by our strongest natural tendencies.

Now, we have a better understanding as to why fear or bearishness sells. Our innate tendencies seem to drive us in that direction, despite all the empirical data to the contrary. While our innate tendencies seem to have been pre-programmed within our brain stems to assist man to survive in a life and death struggle, I am not sure such hyper-focused tendencies help us in all aspects of our current lives in which we clearly allow them to reign.

The herd mentality

Man also has a natural tendency for herding. And just as in our financial markets, such tendencies for focusing upon the negative, as well as herding, do not always serve an investor in a manner which is positive for their investment account. Rather, there are times when an investor has to fight their natural tendencies to avoid adverse effects upon their investment account. I have spoken about this general perspective a bit more in this recent column.

It is for this reason that we recognize that contrarian thinking is much preferred to "group think" when dealing with financial markets.

Consider how many of you have maintained a bearish bias of the stock market since 2009? We have heard all the same reasons that feed our natural bearish tendencies. But one has to question if the fundamentals, which has many currently bearish, will foretell a long-term top in our market so that the majority of the market may prepare for the "crash." Well, has the market ever telegraphed such a market decline?

Think about it. Is it more fashionable to be bearish today than bullish? The Fed is taking away easy money. The economy is supposedly not doing so well. GDP has supposedly been anemic. Commodities have been in free fall. Real unemployment is still quite high. Government debt is increasing at an alarming rate. Insurance costs are rising by double-digit percentages annually. High-yield debt has been crashing. Is there any good news out there, or do we have a solid wall of worry being built?

Be a contrarian

I would like to remind you of what was said by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in "fundamental" analysis for predictive purposes:

“The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?”

So, do we sound like we have struck the top of our long-term bull market? Or are our natural tendencies simply driving us on the "bear bus?" While we may certainly still see another pullback down to the 1800s in the stock market, does the news flow suggest that we are topping in a long-term bull market, or does the news flow still seem too bearish to be at a major top?

I want to take this opportunity to wish you and your families a very happy and healthy new year. May the new year bring you and your families health, prosperity and growth, and may we continually strive together to uncover the truths within our financial markets so we can maintain on the correct side of the trend.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 12, 2016, 05:44:05 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 12, 2016, 05:47:33 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 12, 2016, 07:03:48 AM

Bearish J.P Morgan says sell stocks on any rally

By Sue Chang
Published: Jan 11, 2016 2:13 p.m. ET

For first time in seven years, advice moves away from buy the dips
AFP/Getty Images
The mood on Wall Street is decidedly bearish.
J.P. Morgan Chase has turned its back on the stock market: For the first time in seven years, the investment bank is urging investors to sell stocks on any bounce.

“Our view is that the risk-reward for equities has worsened materially. In contrast to the past seven years, when we advocated using the dips as buying opportunities, we believe the regime has transitioned to one of selling any rally,” Mislav Matejka, an equity strategist at J.P. Morgan, said in a report.

Aside from technical indicators, expectations of anemic corporate earnings combined with the downward trajectory in U.S. manufacturing activity and a continued weakness in commodities are raising red flags.

“We fear that the incoming fourth-quarter reporting season won’t be able to provide much reassurance for stocks,” he said.

Expectations for earnings are so bearish that the hurdle rate—the minimum rate of return on an investment that makes it worth the risk—for fourth-quarter results is now minus 4%, compared with plus 5% several months earlier.

“If this were to materialize, it would be the weakest quarter for EPS delivery so far in the upcycle,” said Matejka.

Further adding to the grim outlook is the slowdown in the manufacturing sector, which pushed J.P. Morgan’s profit-margin proxy — the gap between pricing power and the wage costs — into negative territory in the fourth quarter for the first time since 2008.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, released last week, dipped to 48.2% in December from 48.6% in November, the lowest since the Great Recession.

The positive correlation between oil prices and earnings on top of the sustained gains in the U.S. dollar — which has an inverse correlation to results — will also weigh on the market, he added.

J.P. Morgan
U.S. oil futures slid under $32 a barrel on Monday for the first time since December 2003 with February West Texas Intermediate crude CLG6, -6.12%  dropping 5.9% to $31.19 a barrel. February Brent crude, the global crude benchmark LCOG6, -6.71% was off 6% to $31.45 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the ICE U.S. Dollar index DXY, +0.55% a gauge for the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, has risen more than 7% over the past 12 months, a trend it is expected to maintain until the middle of 2016.

Read: Oil could fall toward $20, but not for the reason you think

Among other analysts, Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, is likewise pessimistic.

“The SPX is set up for an oversold bounce this week, with seven of our market internal measures at contrarian extremes,” she said. “But we are unconvinced that a shakeout is underway.”

Stockton added that she is more cautious on the market’s intermediate outlook in the wake of last week’s 6% rout, as the sharp loss in momentum suggests that the next support level of 1,872 touched in September may be in jeopardy in the next couple of months.

“Fortunately, we expect an oversold bounce to afford a better selling opportunity in the days ahead,” she said.

Goldman Sachs on Monday reiterated its S&P 500 target of 2,100 for 2016 despite the wobbly start.

“The prospective price gain from the current level equals 9% but rises to 11% when dividends are included,” said David Kostin, Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist.

Dividends have accounted for 78% of the market’s total return since 1965, he noted.

The S&P 500 SPX, +0.09%  is down 0.6% to 1,909, failing to hold early Monday gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.32%  is down 0.4% to 16,280 and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.12%   has dropped 1.1% to 4,594.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 12, 2016, 07:05:05 AM

An ‘extremely normal and realistic’ 26% drop on the S&P 500 is taking shape

By Shawn Langlois
Published: Jan 11, 2016 12:11 p.m. ET

All Star Charts
It’s been a brutal start to 2016 in the markets. But the way this chart is setting up, there’s a lot more pain on the way, according to J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog.

“We’re down 9% from the all-time highs in the S&P 500 SPX, +0.09% and I see people acting like two-year-olds that just had their favorite toy taken away from them,” he said. “Why, because the market is down 9% from its highs last year after rallying over 220% over the prior 6 years? Please.”

He goes on to explain how this recent spate of selling action isn’t unusual and how “things get absolutely destroyed all the time.” Like the British pound, energy, emerging markets and agricultural commodities, to name just a few.

“And these are real collapses in prices, not this 9% nonsense that people are getting all worked up about because it’s the S&P 500, or Apple AAPL, +1.62% or something that they’re too sensitive about,” Parets wrote in his blog post.

He used the chart above to support his prediction that the S&P is headed toward the 1,570 level, which would be an “extremely normal and realistic” 26% correction from the top. Or another 20% from where it stands now.

“This is a ‘sell rallies’ market, not a ‘buy the dip’ environment,” he added.

That’s not to say there won’t be bounces. “Go look at a list of the best days in stock market history, they all come during massive selloffs,” Parets said. “I would expect this decline to be no different and the rallies we do get should be vicious.”

In another chart he posted on Monday, he pointed out the fact that, amid the declines, mega-cap stocks are crushing micro-caps lately, and that’s usually a sign that institutional dollars are flowing into the relatively safer corner of the market. It fits his bearish thesis.

One way to play what he sees as a continuing trend is to go long the Dow DJIA, +0.32%  while shorting an equivalent position in the Russell Micro-cap Index RUMIC, -0.80%  .

“This is not something that usually occurs when the market overall is going up, but normally on when it’s on its way down,” Parets said. “I’ve been pounding the table to be short, and that there is a lot more downside coming. So I have to say that I am happy to see this particular ratio confirm what we’re seeing elsewhere.”
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 12, 2016, 07:06:20 AM

Is it a crash, correction or capitulation for stocks and bonds?

By Michael A. Gayed
Published: Jan 11, 2016 1:15 p.m. ET

Getty Images
"Hindsight is wonderful. It's always very easy to second guess after the fact." - Helen Reddy

Everywhere I turn, there seems to be someone talking up their book arguing that "everyone" is bearish, or bullish, and that it's time to be contrarian. When asked further, the definition of "everyone" appears to change person by person. Some use a small sample size of column comments, friends or colleagues to extrapolate that the whole wide world is negative or positive on the S&P 500 SPY, +0.10%  or Russell 2000 IWM, -0.43%

None of this in my opinion is valid. In a world awash with information thanks to the Internet, often the most extreme and most negative sounding comments get the most attention. One of the things that stuck with me in taking a marketing course in college was that reviews tend to be skewed negative, because those with positive things to say often don't feel as compelled to voice their opinions. However, just because we see more negative comments, does not mean that "everyone" is negative.

As I referenced in my latest newsletter writing "On Stock Corrections, Hindsight, and Anger" (click here to read), weeks like last week happen no matter what strategy or indicators you use to mitigate risk. Use the 200-day/40-week moving average to decide when to get in and out of stocks? You'll find several instances in history of weeks down just as much, if not more.

The media is harping on what's happened to equities, but few are asking if we are on the verge of one of those rare instances where stocks and bonds fall together at the same time. Sometimes worst weeks happen even when using proven leading indicators of volatility, because no strategy or indicator can possibly get every single major move down right. This is especially true in extremes like last week.

Historically, bonds (more specifically Treasurys) are the "risk off" trade that benefit from stock market volatility on average. We show this in our award winning paper (click here to download). On average, however, doesn't mean every time. This move came out of nowhere, but more concerning is the behavior of Treasurys throughout as long-duration failed to significantly rally.

This makes me wonder if we are entering a period where everything goes down (with cash/short-duration Treasurys more isolated). Put simply, given the magnitude of the decline in stocks worldwide and sharpness of the move, the yield curve should have flattened a lot more.

Take a look below at the price ratio of the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund ETF TLT, -1.09%  relative to the Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF SHV, -0.01%  . As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/TLT is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/SHV. That ratio should have gone vertical last week. It didn't.

Either Treasurys are not confirming the decline, and we bounce in equities, or we are entering the worst of all worlds where stocks and bonds fall hard together. While rare, such instances have happened in the past, and may be on the verge of happening again. It is worth asking why exactly the 10-year Treasury yield isn't down more given on-going commodity pressure (deflationary) and falling stocks (deflationary).

So is it a crash, a correction, or are we on the verge of capitulation in stocks? I believe these are the wrong questions. The question is are we entering a crash, correction or capitulation in stocks and bonds together. Right now, it may be worth waiting for the dust to settle, and see if there are any aftershocks to come given macro events, and the abnormality of market behavior to start 2016.

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this wr
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: Con Artist on January 12, 2016, 10:51:10 AM
Stocks needs a "big title" or scandal to crash.

Such as "tech bubble", "george 傻佬", "subprime bubble", "lehman", ... to crash..
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 12, 2016, 02:36:03 PM

"Fasten Your Seatbelts" - UBS Warns Of "Record Spikes In Volatility" If This Level Breaks
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/11/2016 21:00 -0500

Bear Market Japan Mean Reversion Volatility

Having warned earlier in the week of the potential for a significant crash in US equities and the appeal of owning gold, UBS goes one further in their recent report warning of "record spikes" in volatility should the following levels break...

Generally, the late September bottom in equities has an absolutely pivotal character for a lot of markets. In Europe, the September low represents the 2009 bull trend. In the Russell-2000 or the MSCI World, it is the neckline of a huge head & shoulder formation and in the S&P-500 it is an obvious double bottom, which would be negated as well as breaking the 32-month moving average.

Analytically, this moving average has a very good track record in signaling whether the US market is still in a bull market or not. Even the 1987 crash was just a pullback and mean reversion to this moving average, whereas in 2001 and 2008 the break of the 32-month average was confirmation that a real bear market had started.

So regardless of when we get this signal, a break of the late September low at 1867 in the S&P-500 would be the ultimate confirmation that the US market is also in a real bear market and in this case we would recommend to fasten your seatbelts.

If we look into the macro world we are obviously living in a world of extremes. We have record debt in the Emerging Market complex, in Europe, in Japan and in the US; with margin debt in the US at record levels, M&A hitting record levels, record ETF holdings in corporate bonds, record auto loans in the US, and the list continues.

We would be surprised that in this highly leveraged world, in combination with a structural decline in market liquidity, a 7-year cycle decline would just be mild. We think it’s actually just the other way around and in this context we see last year’s rise in volatility as just the start of a period with exceptionally high volatility where we wouldn’t be surprised to see record spikes in volatility over the next 12 to 17 months. So another key call we have for the next 12 to 15 months is to be long volatility.


Particularly with regards to the ongoing bear market in high yields, we think that volatility in equities is too low and this will be one of the key charts for 2016.

Last year we argued that we generally see all these divergences as a leading indicator for an important top in global equities. 12 months later we are in the next phase of the global rolling over process, where we see more and more markets having already fallen into a bear market, and where on the other hand we can clearly say that without a new momentum impulse coming from the fundamental world the air for the remaining outperformer markets will get increasingly thin.

Source: UBS
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 13, 2016, 05:40:22 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 13, 2016, 07:12:04 AM

This stock-market ‘screwdriver’ could be pointing to a ‘major bottom’ for the S&P

By Shawn Langlois
Published: Jan 12, 2016 12:38 p.m. ET

200-day moving average may be punching a hole in the bearish sentiment
Beware the screwdriver!
The 200-day simple moving average is like the screwdriver of the technical analysis toolbox, says Greg Harmon of the Dragonfly Capital blog. “You can use it to take things apart and put them back together as it was designed,” he said. “But it can also be used to pry things open, or punch a hole.”

And right now, it appears to be punching a hole in the prevailing bearish sentiment.

The 200-day moving average essentially identifies whether the price trend is rising, stalling or falling. It’s generally considered bullish if the price is above the average, and bearish if it’s below.

“For the S&P 500 SPX, +0.78%  this can be used as a barometer of the entire market. And it is widely used,” Harmon explained. “Even fundamental investors know that if the S&P 500 is over the 200-day SMA, they have a tailwind.”

Taking it a step further, as Harmon did with this chart, reveals even more about the current state of the market, if action in recent years is any indication.

The choppy red and black line represents the percentage of stocks in the S&P that are over their 200-day moving average. The green background is the S&P. Among the various trends that can be gleaned from the chart, one is particularly notable, he said.

Look what happens when the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average drops below 25%. We’ve seen it only four times in the past 12 years, Harmon said, and every time marked a major bottom for stocks.

Where did it stand on Tuesday morning? Right at 25%.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 13, 2016, 07:14:29 AM

Strategist bets stock market poised for a V-shaped rebound

By Sue Chang
Published: Jan 12, 2016 3:55 p.m. ET

This is a ‘growth scare,’ not a recession

Fundstrat says things have been so awful that much of the bad news has been baked in to stock prices.
The bears are rampaging through the stock market as pessimism spreads. But at least one strategist is taking the carnage in stride and going as far as to predict a fairly robust recovery in the market.

“We believe downside pressure has been magnified by a ‘buyers strike’ as investors wait for a decisive data point in either direction,” said Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, in a Tuesday note.

“While investors wait, we believe the case is increasingly tilting towards ‘growth scare’—and as a consequence, with each passing day, we see the probability of a V-shaped recovery rising,” he said, adding that things have been so dismal that most of the bad news has been “baked in.”

Among the key reasons for the strategist’s optimistic call is his belief that the U.S. dollar’s strength, which he blames for hurting 2015 earnings by as much as $93 billion, will ease given the currency’s horizontal moves since the third quarter.

“Barring a sudden surge in the dollar in the next three months, the headwinds from the dollar should start fading,” he said.

Lee also noted that the long-term yield curve has steepened to 79 basis points from 70 basis points since the December interest-rate hike.

“The long-term yield curve has a great long-term track record predicting recessions—thus, a steepening curve argues the market turmoil is growth jitters, rather than presaging a recession,” he said.

Furthermore, the U.S. market generally sets the tone for global markets, rather than the other way around. As a result, even though 52% of global markets are in bear market territory, the U.S. is not expected to follow suit.

Not only are U.S. stocks safe from foreign bear markets, the number of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has fallen below 17% which is a traditional pivot point for a strong bounce back, he said. Since 1990, when the rate is below that level, equities are higher 87% of the time but jumps to 100% in the absence of a recession. Also see: Half of the S&P 500 is in a bear market.

“We think the best strategy in 2016 is to focus on value over growth—FANG—and stocks are the ‘new’ bonds [as] value is inversely correlated to the U.S. dollar and oil,” Lee said. FANG is an acronym for Facebook Inc. FB, -0.22% Inc. AMZN, +0.02% Netflix Inc. NFLX, +1.40% and Alphabet Inc. GOOG, +1.40% the parent of Google. The four stocks were top performers in 2015.

Still, he noted there is a slim chance that further market turmoil could trigger a credit tightening which in turn could result in a recession.

Lee’s confidence in the market contrasts with the generally funereal forecasts from various analysts in the wake of the dismal first trading week of the year.

In a recent report, Andrew Roberts, head of European economics at RBC, referenced the 2008 financial crisis in telling investors to head for the exit.

“We have been warning in past weeklies that this all looks similar to 2008. We dust off our old mantra: this is about ‘return of capital, not return on capital’,” he said. “Watch out. Sell (mostly) everything.”

J.P. Morgan, where Lee served as its chief equity strategist until 2014, on Monday also reversed its buy-on-dip recommendation to sell on any market rally, a first in seven years.

But as ominous as that sounds, Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, notes that these “sell on bounce” comments may be a signal that the bottom is near.

“While they may be right if we are into a ‘selling stampede,’ on a short-term basis these are the kind of statements one typically sees at trading lows, which is where I think we are,” he said.

The S&P 500 SPX, +0.78%  and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.72%  were on track for modest gains Tuesday
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 13, 2016, 07:15:45 AM

Here’s why timing may not be right to buy the dip

By Anora Mahmudova
Published: Jan 12, 2016 11:56 a.m. ET

Declining earnings, tighter Fed policy, global growth fears
Shutterstock, gregdx
The S&P 500 is down nearly 10% from its peak last May and the Russell 2000 index of small capitalization stocks is down about 19% from its peak last June, yet it might be premature to call this a buying opportunity, according to some analysts.

The American Association of Individual Investors, which conducts weekly surveys, said that bearish sentiment—when investors think market will fall over the next 6-12 months—rose to 38% last week and stayed above historical average of 30% in three of the past four weeks.

From declining earnings to high valuations to multiyear record low oil prices, these analysts still see plenty of reasons for investors to remain pessimistic.

Earnings and the economy

Earning growth is expected to be negative for the fourth quarter, while major banks have downgraded 2016 full-year earnings estimates to show virtually no growth from last year’s levels.

New Year’s hangover for Wall Street: Earnings season misery

The U.S. economy continues to grow at two different speeds: The services sector remains strong, with decent job gains to back it. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector has been in contraction for the past year. While it is true that a growing economy is good for stocks, most of the profits on the S&P 500 come from the manufacturing sector.

One chart shows how U.S. businesses are falling flat

“Consumers and the services sector cannot offset declining manufacturing. Meanwhile, contrary to expectations, corporations will scale back buybacks, which have been propping up earnings per share so far,” said James Abate, chief investment officer at Centre Asset Management LLC.

No PE expansion

The S&P 500 SPX, +0.78%  saw double-digit gains from 2012 until 2014, primarily due to multiple (or price-to-earnings ratio) expansion—when investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of earnings. The major reason behind the P/E expansion in 2012-2014 was the pumping of extraordinary liquidity in the form of Federal Reserve bond-buying program.

In 2016, just like in 2015, not only there is no quantitative easing, but the Fed is on the path of normalizing interest rates, getting them off near-zero levels.

“Overall PEs are coming back down and things will get attractive, but it’s only a good opportunity if you have patience, at least a 12-month horizon,” said Karyn Cavanaugh, market strategist at Voya Financial, adding that markets are likely to improve in the second half of this year.

Opinion: Stocks still aren’t even close to being cheap

Oil and Dollar

Oil prices fell 45% in 2014 and another 16% in 2015—on a combination of increasing production and oversupply, waning demand from China and a strengthening dollar. Over the first six trading session of the new year, crude prices fell another 15% to below $32 a barrel. Morgan Stanley joined other banks forecasting oil to fall to $20 a barrel as the dollar is likely to rise due to tighter monetary policy.

Falling oil and stronger dollar will work as a double whammy for already weak corporate earnings. But predicting either of those is really difficult. Energy and materials companies may not have reached bottoms yet. See: One-third of U.S. oil companies could face bankruptcy.

“We are not looking at any energy companies no matter how cheap we think they are,” said Kim Forrest, portfolio manager at Fort Pitt Capital.

China and the rest of emerging markets

While it is true there is historically little correlation between Chinese equities and U.S. stock markets, investors remain jittery.

Sharp falls and trading halts in Shanghai last week and confusion over China’s policy intentions as it allowed the yuan to weaken did send shock waves through global financial markets. The events showed that nervousness over China and other emerging markets can serve as catalysts when nervous investors are looking for an excuse to sell.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 13, 2016, 07:16:51 AM

Opinion: Stocks still aren’t even close to being cheap

By Mark Hulbert
Published: Jan 12, 2016 5:08 a.m. ET

Recent weakness has simply worked off an extreme overvaluation
Hulbert Financial Digest
Even with the recent plunge, the stock market has a long way to fall before stocks are even fairly valued, much less undervalued.

That is the depressing, but nevertheless undeniable, conclusion to emerge from a review of where six well-known valuation indicators currently stand. Each shows that recent weakness has done little more than work off some of the extreme overvaluation that previously existed.

To be sure, valuation indicators’ track records do a far better job forecasting the market’s direction over the intermediate and longer terms than they do as short-term market-timing tools. So the market is entirely capable of rising this year in the face of the current overvaluation.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Mar 15
May 15
Jul 15
Sep 15
Nov 15
Jan 16
But you may recall that it was precisely one year ago that I last reported on the stock market’s valuation, and since then the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.72%   has fallen 7%.

Consider the same six valuation indicators that I focused on in my year-ago column. As I did then, the list below contrasts their current readings to where they stood at all of the bull-market tops since 1900 (using the bull-and-bear-market calendar employed by Ned Davis Research).

As you will see in the listing below, the indicator that judges the stock market to be least overvalued is still showing that equities are more overvalued than at 71% of past bull-market peaks.

The other five of the six indicators show today’s market to be more overvalued than at between 82% and 89% of those peaks:

The price/book ratio, which stands at an estimated 2.6 to 1. The book value dataset I was able to obtain extends only back to the 1920s rather than to the beginning of the century, but at 23 of the 28 major market tops since then, the price/book ratio was lower than it is today.
The price/sales ratio, which stands at an estimated 1.1 to 1. I was able to put my hands on per-share sales data back to the mid-1950s; at 16 of the 18 market tops since, the price/sales ratio was lower than where it stands now.
The dividend yield, which currently is 2.2% for the S&P 500. At 30 of the 35 bull-market peaks since 1900, the dividend yield was higher.
The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, which currently stands at 25.9. This is the ratio championed by Yale University’s Robert Shiller. It was lower than where it is today at 30 of the 35 bull-market highs since 1900.
The so-called Q ratio. Based on research conducted by the late James Tobin, the 1981 Nobel laureate in economics, the Q ratio is calculated by dividing market value by the replacement cost of assets. According to data compiled by Stephen Wright, an economics professor at the University of London, and Andrew Smithers, founder of the U.K.-based economics-consulting firm Smithers & Co., the market currently is more overvalued than it was at 31 of the 35 bull-market tops since 1900.
Price-to-earnings ratio. This is the one that is least bearish, and the one that is perhaps most-often quoted in the financial media. Nevertheless, according to data on as-reported earnings compiled by Yale’s Shiller, and based on S&P estimates for the fourth quarter, the P/E ratio currently stands at 20.1 to 1. It is higher than it was at 71% of past bull-market peaks.
How might bulls try to wriggle out from underneath the force of this data?

One way, up until recently, was to argue that the Federal Reserve’s record-low-interest-rate policy justified higher-than-normal valuations. As I've written before, I never thought that was a good argument. Nevertheless, with the Fed’s recent decision to begin raising rates, the bulls can’t fall back on even this questionable rationale.

The bottom line: The stock market has to fall a lot further before the valuation indicators will be blowing in the direction of higher prices.

Click here to inquire about subscriptions to the Hulbert Sentiment Indexes.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 13, 2016, 07:18:17 AM

Nearly half of the S&P 500 is in a bear market

By Wallace Witkowski
Published: Jan 12, 2016 4:11 p.m. ET

S&P 500 flips in and out of 10% correction territory
Everett Collection
After the S&P 500 flirted with falling into a correction — defined a 10% drop from a recent high — nearly half the stocks on the index have losses that are double that, putting them firmly entrenched in bear-market territory.

At the end of Tuesday trading, 237 of the S&P 500 Index’s SPX, +0.78%  components were down 20% or more from their 52-week highs. Meanwhile, the index as a whole slipped in and out of correction territory. The index touched an intraday low of 1,915.45, with 1,921.24 marking that 10% threshold, but closed up Tuesday at 1,938.68.

The last time the S&P 500 closed with a 10% correction was Sept. 4.

Underscoring the breadth of the market’s recent losses, only one of five S&P 500 stocks isn’t in correction territory.

Here’s a breakdown of how some of the heaviest-weighted stocks have performed:

The megacap bears:
Company/ticker   Market cap (in billions)   % off 52- week high
Apple Inc. AAPL, +1.45%     $546   26%
ExxonMobil Corp. XOM, +2.05%     $307   20%
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. WMT, -0.93%     $206   30%
Chevron Corp. CVX, +1.71%     $152   28%
Oracle Corp. ORCL, +1.23%     $147   22%
Citigroup Inc. C, +0.06%     $140   23%
Gilead Sciences Inc. GILD, +0.62%     $139   21%
International Business Machines Corp. IBM, -0.25%     $129   25%
AbbVie Inc. ABBV, +1.78%     $88   23%
Kraft Heinz Co. KHC, +1.33%     $88   20%
The best-performing megacaps
Company/ticker   Market cap (in billions)   % off 52- week high
Alphabet Inc. GOOG, +1.40%     $498   7%
Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.92%     $418   7%
General Electric Co. GE, +0.21%     $289   9%
Johnson Johnson Inc. JNJ, +0.69%     $270   8%
AT&T Inc. T, -0.15%     209   7%
Coca-Cola Co. KO, +1.30%     $181   4%
Visa Inc. V, +1.14%      $179   8%
Home Depot Inc. HD, +1.36%     $159   6%
PepsiCo PEP, +0.18%     $142   6%
Philip Morris International Inc. PM, -0.09%      $138   1%
Altria Group Inc. MO, -0.13%     $117   4%
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 14, 2016, 05:38:19 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 14, 2016, 05:42:17 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 14, 2016, 05:44:37 AM

On the verge of

Death Cross ??

Death Cross confirmed
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 14, 2016, 07:05:19 AM

Dow industrials, S&P 500 sink to 3-month low

By Ellie Ismailidou and Victor Reklaitis
Published: Jan 13, 2016 4:49 p.m. ET

Dow drops 360 points or 2.2%; S&P 500 sheds 48 points or 2.5%
U.S. stocks rang up sharp losses Wednesday in a tough day of trading marked by investors unloading consumer-discretionary and health-care shares.

A renewed slump in crude-oil prices added to the selling pressure, driving the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials to their lowest levels since Sept. 29, 2015.

The S&P 500 SPX, -2.50% closed 48.40 points, or 2.5%, lower at 1,890.28. All of the S&P 500’s 10 main sectors ended in negative territory. Consumer-discretionary led losses, down 3.4%, followed by health care, off 2.9% and information technology, down 2.8%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.21% dropped 364.81 points, or 2.2%, to 16,151.41, with 29 of its 30 components in the red. Shares of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS, -4.06%  and Home Depot HD, -4.78%  contributed to nearly 90 points to the Dow’s drop.

Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, +0.60%  was the only component that ended in positive territory, up 0.6%.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -3.41% finished the bruising session down 159.85 points, or 3.4%, at 4,526.06, its lowest point since Aug. 25, 2015. And the Russell 2000 RUT, -3.30%  closed down 3.3% on the day, falling more than 13% over the past 10 sessions—its biggest 10-day drop since October 2011, according to FactSet data.

Earlier, the main indexes appeared to be on track to claw back some of their losses from an ugly first week of the year. But they turned lower as oil pulled back from an early rally following news that supplies of gasoline and distillates jumped last week.

The drubbing in consumer-discretionary stocks — which includes retailers, media services, household durable goods, textiles and apparel firms, among others — reflects the “expectation of a slowdown in the last-standing economic sector in the U.S.,” said Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds.

With manufacturing already in recession, consumption was “the only sector that looked good,” based on growing consumer income and a tighter labor market, Memani said.

Meanwhile, stocks in the transportation sector DJT, -3.68% which are vulnerable to energy prices, seemed to bear the brunt of the decline, tumbling 3.4% to their lowest level in over two years, according to FactSet data.

Broader markets have recently been closely tracking the gyrations in oil prices CLG6, +0.39% said Aaron Jett, vice president of Equity Research at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

Read: Oil at $10 a barrel—maybe even under $0? Analysts play ‘how low can you go’

Read: Gundlach warns investors not ‘to be a hero’ in this wild market

Read: S&P could plunge 75% to 550, says SocGen perma-bear Albert Edwards

Obama's final State of the Union speech in 2 minutes(2:03)
President Obama's last State of the Union address to Congress, summed up in two minutes.

Other markets: Most Asian markets finished higher on Wednesday, but China’s Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -2.42%  slumped 2.4%, closing below 3,000 for the first time since August. It is now less than 23 points off its summer low, hit on Aug. 26. European stocks SXXP, +0.41% gained, while gold futures GCG6, +0.75% inched higher. A key dollar index DXY, -0.12%  moved up. Treasury yields edged lower

Individual movers: CSX Corp. CSX, -5.70% shares fell 5.7% Wednesday, after the company late Tuesday delivered earnings that beat forecasts but reported weaker-than-anticipated revenue.

Supervalu Inc. SVU, -15.47%  stocks tumbled 15.5% after the company reported before the open profit and sales that matched estimates.

Netflix Inc. NFLX, +0.09%  finished 8.6% lower to lead consumer-discretionary and tech stocks lower. Shares of Inc. AMZN, +0.03% lost 5.8%, joining the tech rout.

Yum Brands Inc. YUM, -0.12%  fell 0.1% after the KFC parent said late Tuesday that same-store sales gained last month in China.

MetLife Inc. MET, +2.19%  shares jumped 2.2%, following news the insurer plans to spin off its U.S. retail business.

Microsoft Corp. MSFT, -2.16%  shares fell 2.2%, releasing earlier gains after the company officially abandoned Windows 8.

Medical technology company Stryker Corp. SYK, +0.65% shares rose 0.7% after the company hiked its profit outlook.

Economic news: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which features anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the U.S., offered Wednesday afternoon a mixed picture of the economy.

Earlier in the day, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that he is closely watching the “tough start” to financial markets in 2016, but said it was important not to overreact.

Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the Fed’s forecast of four interest-rate hikes in 2016 has risks, citing weakness overseas and only “limited data” supporting the Fed’s forecast that inflation will rise to its 2% target by 2018.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 14, 2016, 07:08:16 AM

Here’s when you should jump back into stocks this year

By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Jan 13, 2016 10:39 a.m. ET

Critical information ahead of the U.S. market’s open
AFP/Getty Images
Too soon, say some.
The number 666 crops up in plenty of horror movies, but it has also captured the attention of one of the biggest bears out there.

Albert Edwards, SocGen’s perma-growler, thinks the S&P 500 index SPX, -2.50%   could drop below the March 2009 bear-market low of 666. He says we’re likely to drop to around 550, a 75% slide from current levels. Mind you, Edwards is known for his super-dramatic calls.

But the bottom line is that he and his colleague Andrew Lapthorne, head of quantitative equity research, believe that thoughts of bargain-hunting in this stock market are way premature. Read more about what they said here.

That 75% stock-drop call fits nicely in what’s been a week of dramatic forecasts, such as RBS’s “sell (almost) everything” advice that surfaced Tuesday. No one seemed to be heeding the doomsters then, as Wall Street rode a roller coaster to solid gains. And a third-straight winning session could be on the cards today.

In short, the risk-to-reward trade has become just too compelling, said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG. He says you need to question whether the “‘sell everything’ call marks the low point in risks assets.”

But, the missing piece in the puzzle is a commodities rally. “Until this ferocious speculative attack abates and the leveraged funds start covering short positions, then one of the key pieces of the bullish puzzle is missing,” he said. And that’s as analysts play the “how low can you go” forecasting game for oil. Do I hear $0 a barrel?

Our call of the day stays on the theme of timing for this market and how eager beavers may want to do a gut check, while our chart of the day offers up what some believe is one workable idea for right now.

Key market gauges
Futures for the Dow YMH6, -1.78% and the S&P ESH6, -2.18%  are well in the green, along with oil prices CLG6, +0.39%  which are back atop $31 a barrel after dipping below $30 in New York yesterday. In Asia ADOW, +1.46% the Nikkei NIK, +2.88%  reversed Tuesday’s selloff and rallied hard. But China stocks SHCOMP, -2.42% gradually deteriorated throughout the day, even as a report on exports beat expectations. The Shanghai Composite closed below 3,000 for the first time since the summer meltdown.

European stocks SXXP, +0.41%  are again trading higher. Gold GCG6, +0.75% is off a little. The dollar DXY, -0.12%  is pulling ahead of the yen.

The call of the day
“The stock market is having a hard time (after the December rate hike). This is not a time to be a hero.” That’s DoubleLine Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach in reference to buying on dips in this stock market.

“I think we’re going to take out the September low of the S&P 500,” he said in a webcast on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Gundlach, best known for doing his own howling about impending doom for junk bonds, said equity and corporate-credit markets are going to have a rough time in the first half of 2016. Watch for a “buying opportunity” later in the year, and, yes, the Fed needs to dial back its rhetoric on higher interest rates, he says.

Gundlach also expects a deeper rout in junk bonds as the credit market deteriorates, and thinks bullish bets on the dollar are getting awfully crowded. More on his thoughts here.

All this bearish talk is begging to be answered with a bull point of view. Meet Gerard Minack, Sydney-based investment consultant and former head of Morgan Stanley’s developed market strategy. He says the first half of the year is the time to buy stocks. That’s surprising given that Business Insider describes him as a notorious bear.

Minack’s rationale? Oil will find a floor, El Niño weather fallout will boost global output and markets are increasingly going to expect the Fed to back down. Read more here.

The economy
The Beige Book and the latest on the federal budget are both coming at 2 p.m. Eastern. It’s a light data day, much like tomorrow. Friday is when investors will get slammed with retail sales and other data. Check out our economic preview here

The buzz
Could Alphabet GOOGL, +0.00% GOOG, -3.51% formerly known as Google, get bigger than Apple AAPL, +0.04%  this year? Bespoke seems to think so, and points out that Alphabet’s market cap is less than $50 billion shy of Apple’s. A beat by Google and a miss by the iPhone maker in upcoming earnings could seal the deal, they say. More on that here.

GE GE, -1.40%  says it will cut 6,500 jobs in Europe after buying Alstom’s power equipment making unit last year.

Qualcomm QCOM, -0.90%  is up 1.1% in premarket on an analyst upgrade.

If crude prices are going to keep up the rebound pace, then stocks like National Oilwell Varco NOV, -4.44%  are your best bets, says MarketWatch’s Philip Van Doorn, who offers 9 other picks.

The movies seem to have a thing for financial markets this year. First up this year was “The Big Short.” Next up is “Money Monster” starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts, due for release in March. Clooney plays a “Wizard of Wall Street” financial TV commentator who gets taken hostage in his studio by a gunman, a blue-collar guy who lost his life savings investing in the market. Producer Jodie Foster says she wanted to make the movie to show how the system is “rigged for the elite.”

The trailer just hit last night:

The chart
Josh Brown, blogging at The Reformed Broker, says this form of property has been one popular investment spot this year. He cites data from Riskalyze showing flows to REITs jumping substantially in the first few days of 2016, against a big drop for U.S. equities.

Here’s a chart of the biggest REIT exchange-traded fund, the Vanguard REIT VNQ, -1.43% :

“My thesis is that, given the train wreck in China and the resulting tumult everywhere else, plus the commodity crash’s acceleration and the weakening of U.S. manufacturing data, it’s becoming increasingly clear that rates aren’t going up in the first half of 2016,” he says in explaining the popularity for REITs.

Other pluses: Wall Street has been raising estimates on REITs, rising Treasury yields make them look even more attractive, and demand for office should be just fine as hiring and employment rise. A “really bullish story to tell, in a relative desert for positivity,” says Brown. Read his entire blog here.

Not much on the earnings front today, but CSX CSX, -5.70%  may be active after posting a 13% drop in fourth-quarter revenue late Tuesday.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 14, 2016, 07:13:13 AM

S&P will plunge 75% on China deflation: SocGen bear
Matt Clinch   | @mattclinch81
8 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

A falling Chinese yuan will unleash a wave of global deflation that will send the U.S. into its next recession and pull the S&P 500 back down to 550 points, according to a strategist at Societe Generale.

Albert Edwards, the notoriously bearish analyst at the French bank, released a note on Wednesday in response to the recent currency devaluations by the People's Bank of China (PBoC). This depreciation - with reports last week that it's far from over - is a result of an asset price bubble that the U.S. central backed helped to create, according to Edwards.

"(Quantitative easing in the U.S.) may not have done much to boost U.S. growth, but it certainly inflated global asset prices into the stratosphere," he said in the note Wednesday.

"If I am right, the S&P would fall to 550 (points), a 75 percent decline from the recent 2,100 peak. That obviously will be a catastrophe for the economy via the wealth effect and all the Fed's QE hard work will turn (to) dust."

Spencer Platt | Getty Images
The U.S. dollar has already gained over 1 percent so far this year against its Chinese counterpart with Beijing officials manipulating the yuan by using foreign exchange reserves. Talk of "currency wars" have been put firmly back on the agenda with a weaker exchange rate just one way that a country can boost exports and thus growth. But, cheaper exports from China are seen as likely to spread deflation globally as consumers from developed economies buy cheap imports rather than domestically produced goods.

Some economists highlight that Chinese imports aren't on the scale they once were and that the U.S. economy could withstand any pressure from overseas. However, Edwards sees a full blown trade war in the offing "not unlike that in the 1930s."

"If I am right and we have just seen a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, then the next recession will spell real trouble for investors ill-prepared for equity valuations to fall to new lows," he added, using the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, known as Shiller P/E, for his gloomy prediction on the S&P 500. He gave no timeframe for his latest call.

"The Fed will fight the next bear market with every weapon available including deeply negative Fed Funds rates in addition to more QE. Indeed, negative policy rates will become ubiquitous," he said.

Janet Yellen
Yellen will 'go down in infamy': SocGen bear
Edwards believes his "Ice Age" thesis—economic cycles that deteriorate in ever decreasing circles—is drawing ever closer to its final stages. While his bearish thoughts and predictions are widely read by colleagues and rivals at fellow banking organizations, they do not always come true.

In September 2012, he announced the U.S. was in recession and Wall Street would soon react, and warned of an "ultimate" death cross for the S&P 500—where the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day trend line. Instead the S&P 500 continued to rally, and has gained around 35 percent since Edwards' pronouncement.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
'Sell everything' or brace for a 'February rally'?
However, a slew of economists have voiced concerns about hefty valuations in U.S. equity markets, especially after several bouts of major volatility at the beginning of the year. RBS' analyst Andrew Roberts warned last week that "danger is lurking" for every investor and spoke of a compulsion to "sell mostly everything."

But where there's fear, there could also be a buying opportunity. Capital Economics on Wednesday said it had no fears of an "impending collapse" for U.S. equities and said in a research note that its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 was 2,200 points, from its current level of around 1,940 points.

Bob Parker, a senior advisor for investment strategy and research at Credit Suisse, told CNBC Tuesday that investors should actually be poised for a rally in February, suggesting equities will find a bottom later this month.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 15, 2016, 05:35:51 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 15, 2016, 05:39:45 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 15, 2016, 07:02:13 AM

The S&P 500 could go to 1,600: Merrill strategist
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
9 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The S&P 500 sank below the key level of 1,900, and traders now have their eyes on the 1,867 support level.

But we could very well be heading for 1,600, said Stephen Suttmeier, chief equity technical strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.

"What happens if we start to lose 1,867? You can basically say if we do that we may actually have a top in place that's formed over last year," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

"If that happens, what does that count to? It counts to about 1,600. That's what it counts to on the charts," he said. "If you take the chart pattern there and project it down, that's the risk."

He noted that some market signals are indeed flashing signs of a top, and overhang is apparent in indicators of breadth, volume, trend, and high yield.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Ouch! Here's where stocks could go next
Should that happen, stocks would retest the 1,575 level, where the S&P broke out in April 2013.

Given the S&P's 2.5 percent drop on Wednesday, indicators of panic should have been higher, Suttmeier said, adding that he wasn't getting calls from clients to sell. Those panic indicators are what create tradable bounces, he noted.
While the secular stock trend is still bullish, Suttmeier said he sees suggestions a cyclical bear market has set in.

"Cyclically we are at risk if we break 1,867. We could go lot lower. Secularly, I think we've got to stay bullish. We've got a lot of support around 1,600 on the S&P," he said
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 15, 2016, 07:04:09 AM

2016 rout NOT end of stock bull market: Tom Lee
Matthew J. Belvedere   | @Matt_Belvedere
8 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks may be off to their worst-ever start to a new year, but the correction does not show signs of the end of the six-year-plus bull market, said Tom Lee, co-founder of boutique equity research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors.

"You have to respect what the market's message is: ... Uncertain people are stepping back and risk is coming out. And we're deflating," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday. "[But] I would be surprised if this is the end of the bull market here."

Read MoreS&P 500 could go to 1,600: Merrill strategist

With Wednesday's severe slide, the Dow Jones industrial average, the S&P 500 index, and the Nasdaq composite were in correction territory. The Dow and S&P were on pace for their biggest monthly drops since May 2010, while the Nasdaq could suffer its worst monthly slide since November 2008.

But Lee, a longtime stock bull, remains undeterred. "This is maybe more like a 1982 moment, which means it's more the front end of a longer bull market, not the end of an existing bull market."

The S&P 500 sank below the key level of 1,900 level on Wednesday, with traders looking for support at 1,867, said Stephen Suttmeier, chief equity technical strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research.

If the S&P breaches 1,867 then the index could be headed to the 1,600 level, he told "Squawk Box" in an earlier interview Thursday.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The S&P 500 could go to 1,600: Merrill strategist
But Lee said he'd be a buyer at S&P 1,867. "I would think it's a great time to be long equities."

Despite what's expected to be a rather gloomy earnings season, Lee actually sees stocks doing better. "I think you can kind of be bullish about how markets will behave because ... we can at least calibrate where fears are versus expectations."

"I think the dollar headwinds are fading. And I think buybacks resume after we get the earnings," he added.

Lee also called stocks the new bonds. "There are a lot of companies where their dividend yields are way above their own bond yields." He gave as examples Cisco Systems, Caterpillar, and Wal-Mart.

In another "Squawk Box" appearance, BMO Private Bank CIO Jack Ablin said he hopes stocks are just in a correction. "I still think we're part of an uptrend."

But late last year, there were signs of stocks beginning to crack, he said. "There were some indications that this bull market was weakening and the underpinning just weren't there."

"The last time the market was fairly priced was probably the first quarter of 2014. Investors definitively feasted on easy-money policies and this notion that central banks had our backs," Ablin said. The S&P closed at 1,872 on the last day of March 2014.

"I would say we probably need to a 'comeupins' of the nifty 50, if you will, from last year. And then maybe reset to fair value, and we can have a decent base to go higher," he said.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 04:40:00 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 05:15:41 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 05:19:08 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: einvest88 on January 16, 2016, 06:01:29 AM
S&P500 confirm broken the 2 yr Head & Shoulder neckline ...with tp 1280...
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 06:02:56 AM

Stocks close down 2% after hitting a near 15-month low on oil rout
Evelyn Cheng   | @chengevelyn
55 Mins Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Friday ahead of a long weekend and the onslaught of earnings season, after a slew of disappointing U.S. data, a plunge in oil to below $30 a barrel, and a sell-off in Chinese stocks added to mounting concerns about slowing global growth.

Stocks ended more than 2 percent lower, well off session lows, but the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average still posted their worst two-week start to a year on record.

The S&P 500 held above its August low of 1,867 in the close. The index briefly fell 3.5 percent in midday trade to below that level, to its lowest since mid-October 2014. ( Tweet This )

Read MoreRecession, bear market fears lead to market rout

"Momentarily, yes, it is encouraging and it will not be a negative anecdote for the day, but you've got some pretty good catalysts in China GDP and the fact that we're closed for the day (Monday). The sense is that this is a longer process," said Ryan Larson, head of equity trading, U.S., RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.).

U.S. stock markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. China GDP is among the few data points from the country due out ahead of Tuesday's U.S. trading session. Friday also marked an options expiration day that likely contributed to some volatility.

"Obviously it started with growth concerns overseas and now we're (hitting) ourselves with the same growth concerns as retail sales were weak and Empire manufacturing that collapsed," said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.
The Dow Jones industrial average closed about 390 points lower after earlier falling nearly 537 points. The Dow closed below the psychologically key 16,000 level for the first time since Aug. 25, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most to declines.

"I think some of that was overselling. Still, (about) 400 points is pretty serious. I think going into the close I think things could possibly get better," said Douglas Cote, chief market strategist at Voya Investment Management. He's telling investors, "stick to global diversification and don't panic."

Read MoreBuying opportunities, volatility ahead: El-Erian

"This seems overdone, (but) oil under $30 raises a lot of concern about the impact to not only energy but also the banks and their exposure," he said.

U.S. crude oil settled down $1.78, or 5.71 percent, at $29.42 a barrel, the first settle under $30 in 12 years. WTI lost 11.3 percent for the week, its worst in more than a year.

An oil pump jack in Russia
US oil plunges 5.7% on China, closes at $29.42 a barrel
Bond traders at CME Group
US Treasurys mixed after 30-year bond sale

Dollar slumps on poor US data; aussie, loonie drop
Gold bullion bars and coins.
Gold climbs on weaker dollar, equities

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, briefly topped 30 for the first time since Sept. 1.
"Taking out that August low is definitely concerning," said John Caruso, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. "It may not happen in the near term, (but) definitely low prices are coming."

Financials closed down 3.4 percent to lead all S&P 500 sectors lower. Information technology and energy were the second and third greatest decliners, respectively.
"The fact that financials are leading it after positing good earnings is troubling," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade.

Read MoreEarly movers: GE, INTC, YHOO, GS, C, BLK, & more

The Dow transports closed down 1.6 percent after earlier falling more than 3 percent. Avis Budget led decliners.
Oil fell sharply to hit fresh lows amid the China stock sell-off and concerns about more oversupply from possible lifting of international sanctions within days that could increase Iranian oil exports. The weekly rig count showed a decline of 1, according to Baker Hughes.
Brent crude settled down 6.28 percent at $28.94 a barrel, its lowest in nearly 12 years. Brent lost 13.7 for the week, its worst weekly decline since 2008.

Dow futures briefly fell 400 points and the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 2 percent after retail sales declined 0.1 percent in December. Ex-autos, retail sales also fell 0.1 percent.
The 10-year yield was near 2.03 percent and the 2-year yield around 0.84 percent around the U.S. stock market close.

"We suffered some real technical damage and the thing that worries me is this systemic lack of confidence. I still think the fundamentals are solid," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial. "The U.S. economy is not going into a recession anytime soon."

Read MoreFANG bites back: Amazon, Netflix dictate sell-off

In economic news, the January Empire manufacturing index was minus 19.4.

Industrial production for December fell 0.4 percent. Capacity utilization was 76.5 percent.
The Producer Price Index fell 0.2 percent in December after rising 0.3 percent in November.
November U.S. business inventories fell 0.2 percent.
January U.S. Michigan preliminary Consumer Sentiment was 93.3.
Read MoreInvestor hopes sag to worst in 11 years: Survey

"What (the data) is saying is the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter is slowing and the data is in line with that expectation of that slowdown. However, the market's concerns of recession are much more elevated than they were a few days ago because of emerging markets, China and commodities," said Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds.

"Because investors don't trust underlying data coming out of (emerging market) countries much, they are looking at market indicators as proxies," he said, noting he thinks concerns about emerging markets are overblown.

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) closed nearly 4 percent lower.

Overseas, the Shanghai composite fell about 3.5 percent after Chinese loan data renewed concerns about the pace of economic slowdown. The People's Bank of China set the yuan mid-point fix at 6.5637, comparatively flat relative to Thursday's fix of 6.5616.

European stocks closed down more than 2.5 percent.
Read MoreBuckle up: China could rock markets next week

The U.S. dollar index was down about 0.2 percent. The euro was at 1.09 and the yen at at 116.94 yen against the greenback.
"Simply put, we're not talking about a wall of worry right now. We're talking about a mountain," Larson said.

"It's not anything new. It's the continued persistence of global growth concerns," he said.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Friday the market action is "closely watched at the Treasury Department" and that financial markets around the world are under watch. The White House does not usually comment on market moves.
New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said that future rate hikes depend on data and that rates are set to continue on gradual upward path. He added that overseas economies pose risk to the United States and there's little change in outlook since the Fed meeting.

Core inflation is quite stable despite lower energy, Dudley said, noting 2016 growth is to be slightly above 2 percent.

Read MoreFed fund futures push first expected rate hike to July: CME data
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams told Reuters Friday the stock market's swoon does not change the economic outlook and is merely market participants trying to make sense of global developments,

"If the Fed is not going to be underpinning the market, the valuations have to fall into line with fundamentals," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

"This (sell-off) should not be a surprise to the market. This has been telegraphed to the market for some time. ... This is not abnormal for four years of no pullbacks," she said.

DJIA   Dow Jones Industrial Average   15988.08       -390.97   -2.39%
S&P 500   S&P 500 Index   1880.33       -41.51   -2.16%
NASDAQ   Nasdaq Composite Index   4488.42       -126.59   -2.74%
The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 390.97 points, or 2.39 percent, at 15,988.08, with Intel leading all constituents lower.
The Dow lost 2.19 percent for the week. DuPont was the greatest decliner on the week, while Exxon Mobil was the best performer.

The S&P 500 closed down 41.55 points, or 2.16 percent, at 1,880.29, with financials leading all 10 sectors lower.

The index fell 2.17 percent for the week, with materials the worst performer and utilities the only gainer.

The Nasdaq composite closed down 126.59 points, or 2.74 percent, to 4,488.42.

The Nasdaq lost 3.34 percent for the week, with Apple up 0.18 percent for the week but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) down nearly 6 percent.

About five stocks declined for every advancer on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of nearly 1.5 billion and a composite volume of almost 5.5 billion in the close.

High-frequency trading accounted for 49 percent of January's daily trading volume of about 8.97 billion shares, according to TABB Group. During the peak levels of high-frequency trading in 2009, about 61 percent of 9.8 billion of average daily shares traded were executed by high-frequency traders.
Gold futures for February delivery settled up $17.10 at $1,090.70 an ounce.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 06:04:48 AM

Prepare for stocks to fall another 10%: Larry Fink
Matthew J. Belvedere   | @Matt_Belvedere
9 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink said Friday the stock market could fall another 10 percent and oil prices could test $25 per barrel.

"We're in the midst of a real market decline, bordering on a bear market," he told "Squawk Box" on CNBC. "But the speed at which this is happening is just a reassessment of the risk, reassessment of where we're going."

Read MoreBob Doll: I don't see a bear market, but ...
U.S. stock futures were crumbling Friday morning, with Dow futures down nearly 300 points, as oil tanked. The resumption of the decline follows Thursday's sharp increase on Wall Street.

Despite Thursday's gains, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Nasdaq composite remained in correction, a threshold of 10 percent or more to the downside from all-time highs. But the S&P 500 was able to narrowly escape correction territory ahead of Friday's trading.

If the market were to fall another 10 percent, as predicted by Fink, that would put stocks in a bear market, as defined by a decline of 20 percent from new highs.

"I believe there's not enough blood in the street. We'll probably going to have to test the markets lower," he said. "When we test the markets lower, it's going to be a pretty good buying opportunity."

Read MoreBlackRock earnings miss, revenue beats estimates

Fink does not believe stocks will enter what he calls a classic bear market. "I always look at a bear market ... [as] persistent water torture, day after day after day after day. I'm not sure this is what we call a classic bear market.

But by the second half of the year, Fink said, the stock market should be higher. "Over the course of the next six months, we think it's going to feel a lot better."

"There's not that much leverage in the system," he said. "That's why all the analogies to 2008 and 2009 are erroneous. We don't have that type of leverage."

As for oil, prices were plunging Friday morning, with West Texas Intermediate crude down more than 5 percent. WTI was trading under $30 per barrel, after posting the first significant gains for 2016 in the previous session.

"But my worry about oil prices today I'm sure nine out 10 of your guests talk about oil is going lower now so it's a very heavy trade," Fink said.

Read MoreTHIS will bring oil producers to their knees: Kilduff

These sharp moves in oil and the dismal start of the year for the stock market put negativity across the U.S. economy, he said. "It's] a negativity to every CEO who is looking at his or her stock price [as well as] a negativity related to business and the forward thinking about businesses."

"I actually believe you're going to start seeing more layoffs in the middle part of the first quarter, definitely the second quarter." he warned
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 06:18:10 AM

U.S. stocks post worst 10-day start to a year in history

By Joseph Adinolfi and Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Jan 15, 2016 4:28 p.m. ET

Dow industrials sinks nearly 400 points
Getty Images
Markets can’t get around a wall of China worry
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Friday, locking in the worst 10-day start to a calendar year ever, as oil prices plunged and investors worried about slowing growth in the U.S.

During the course of the session, the S&P 500 broke below its Aug. 24 low—which several market strategists said would be tantamount to a major sell signal—to trade at its lowest level since October 2014. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was briefly down as much as 537 points.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
15 Jan
Oil appeared to be the main driver of concern. Both the U.S. CLG6, -4.81% UK:LCOG6 and global benchmarks settled below $30 a barrel, as investors feared that supplies will continue to rise as Iran prepares to enter the market ad Russia continues pumping oil to help support its flagging economy.

”There’s not a lot of people willing to take their foot off the gas and prices are adjusting accordingly,” said David Meier, portfolio manager at Motley Fool Asset Management. “As a result of that you’re seeing fear just creep in.”

The Dow DJIA, -2.39% slumped 390.97 points, or 2.4%, to 15,988.08, while the S&P 500 SPX, -2.16% slid 44.85 points, or 2.3%, to 1,876.99, led lower by the financial, technology and energy sectors. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.74%  tumbled 126.59 points, or 2.7%, to 4,488.42.

All Dow components ended in negative territory, as were all 10 sectors on the S&P 500.

Follow MarketWatch’s stock market live blog.

Read: Why oil could plunge to $20 a barrel, but probably not $10

Selling began in China after official data showed that new bank loans were lower than expected in December as lenders sharply curtailed activity amid worries about slowing growth and bad debt. In a bid to boost liquidity, China’s central bank said it pumped $15 billion of funds into the market via a medium-term lending facility on Friday.

The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -3.55%  dropped 3.5% and is down 20% from a Dec. 22 high, which by one definition puts it in a bear market.

All of this was exacerbated as options stopped trading ahead of their expiration on Saturday. Dave Lutz, head of ETFs at JonesTrading, said because of how the market was positioned, options dealers needed to sell more futures to hedge their positions as stocks fell.

Intel Corp. INTC, -9.10% was the biggest loser among Dow components, plunging 8.9%, after earnings late Thursday, and major oil companies Chevron Corp. CVX, -2.11% and Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, -1.95% also were big losers.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 finished the week down more than 2%, while the Nasdaq shed more than 3% of its value this week.

Read: Goldman’s Abby Joseph Cohen says stocks are the best place to be

Trump and Cruz clashes dominate Republican debate(2:34)
GOP front-runners Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz exchanged jabs and dominated the airtime at the sixth Republican presidential debate.

Economic signals: A spate of disappointing U.S. data show that both manufacturing and consumer spending are in trouble. Empire State factory index declined sharply in January to its lowest level since the recession. Retail sales declines by 0.1% in December a report on industrial production compiled by the Federal Reserve showed that activity declined for the third straight month.

The cost of producing goods and services dropped again.

The lone bright spot was a report on consumer sentiment in January, which rose to 93.3 from a preliminary reading of 92.6 in the University of Michigan’s preliminary January reading.

Read: Why U.S. retail sales will be weak again in December

New York Fed President William Dudley remained upbeat when he spoke Friday, saying he still expected the economy to push the unemployment rate down further and for growth to be slightly above the long-term trend.

Stocks to watch: Despite J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s JPM, +0.18%  upbeat results, the bank’s shares were off 2%.

Shares of BlackRock Inc. BLK, -4.33%  were down 4.3% even after the firm said its earnings rose on the back of higher fees.

Wells Fargo & Co. WFC, -3.59% shares were 3.6% lower, after the bank posted a profit that was flat as low oil prices hurt the country’s fourth-largest bank by assets.

Citigroup Inc. C, +0.09%  profit soared last quarter as litigation costs fell. But its shares were ended 6.4% lower.

Shares of Analog Devices Inc. ADI, -1.35%  slumped 1.4% after it cut its revenue outlook late Thursday.

General Electric Co. GE, -1.96%  said it has made a deal to sell its appliance unit to Shanghai-listed Qingdao Haier Co. 600690, +1.43% in which Chinese appliance maker Haier Group owns a key stake, for $5.4 billion. Shares of GE finished down 2%.

Other markets: European stocks were unable to escape the downward trend from other markets, and the Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, -2.82%  lost 2.8%. The dollar USDJPY, -0.88% fell to a one-year low vs. the yen. Gold GCG6, +1.40%  rose $22.40, or 2.1%, to $1,096.20 an ounce.

Treasury yields fell to a 3-month low TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.52% with the 10-year yield briefly falling below 2%
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 06:20:00 AM

Stock market bloodbath wasn’t the final flush, indicator suggests

By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Jan 15, 2016 4:44 p.m. ET

NYSE’s Arms Index fell short of levels associated with panic-like selling that often precedes a stock market recovery
Everett Collection
Jodie Foster and Kristen Stewart in “Panic Room”
The stock market’s bloodbath Friday was not the final flush needed to clear the way for a recovery, according to a widely-watched indicator of selling intensity.

Many technicians, as well as old-school fundamental investors like Warren Buffett, say that the time to start buying in a falling market is after signs of panic, or capitulation by the bulls.

But after the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.39%  plunged 391 points, or 2.4% on Friday--the biggest one-day percentage decline in 3 1/2 months--the New York Stock Exchange’s Arms Index suggested bulls were anxious, but not quite scared enough to throw in the towel.

The Arms Index is a volume-weighted measure of market breadth, which is calculated by dividing the ratio of the number of advancing stocks to declining stocks by the ratio of advancing volume to declining volume. When the market is declining, the Arms Index usually rises, as the volume in declining stocks tends to increase faster than the number of stocks that are declining.

In other words, sellers tend to hit the sell button a little harder when the market is falling, then when it isn’t.

An Arms reading of 1.0 implies buying and selling is in complete balance. Technicians see a rise to the 2.0-to-3.0 range as the threshold to imply panic, or capitulation.

On Friday, the NYSE’s Arms rose to just 1.791.

In comparison, last year’s high for the NYSE Arms was 4.95 on Sept. 1, when the Dow plunged 470 points. The Dow rose 293 points the next day, and ran up 1,830 points over the next three months.

Meanwhile, when the Dow tumbled 392 points last Thursday, and the NYSE Arms rose to just 1.28, the Dow slumped another 168 points the next day.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 06:24:49 AM

Bill Gross warns: ‘Stay out of the bathroom’

By Ellie Ismailidou
Published: Jan 15, 2016 4:47 p.m. ET

Gross blames the Fed for “talking tough”
Bloomberg News/Landov
Bill Gross says “wealth effect constructed with paper” can sometimes resemble a toilet.
On Friday, as U.S. stocks plunged, with the S&P 500 SPX, -2.16%  tumbling to its lowest level since October 2014, Bill Gross, the billionaire investor and founder of PIMCO who now runs a fund at Janus Capital Group, took to Twitter to try and identify the root cause of the selloff.

Gross has never hidden his concern about wealth and growth being based on inflated asset valuations, not the real value of a goods-and-services producing system.

But while some of the insights he shared were no doubt perceptive, others were typically cryptic.

Like when he warned investors to “stay out of the bathroom.”

After a close reading, it’s likely that Gross probably meant this as a warning investors to be judicious when deciding where and how to invest.

He also pointed to actions that he said have distorted markets.

The bond guru pointed to an important element of the market rout, the so-called carry trade, a strategy in which investors borrow money at a low interest rate in order to invest in an asset that is likely to provide a higher return.

But the hidden danger of buying on margin is that when prices plummet, portfolio managers get so-called margin calls, which force them either to deposit more money in the account to cover the decreased value or to sell off other assets, including high-quality ones like Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS).

He added that the Fed is partly to blame:

When referring to central banks, the so-called put is the notion that the Fed will rush in to rescue tanking markets.

This notion was denied on paper by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, former Fed chairme both, but reinforced by the central bank’s aggressive actions following the 2008 financial crisis.

New York Fed President William Dudley on Friday gave no signal that the carnage in the stock market has led to any reconsideration of the central bank’s stated goal to lift interest rates as much as 1% this year
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 12:55:54 PM

On the verge of

Death Cross ??

Don't Ignore This Chart

Another Death Cross Looms for the S&P 500
Arthur Hill | January 11, 2016 at 12:04 PM
Stocks took it on the chin over the last two weeks with the S&P 500 falling over 7% in just seven trading sessions (30-Dec to 8-Jan). The depth of this decline forced the 50-day moving average down and it is currently below the 200-day moving average. This death-cross, however, is not the only negative on the chart. In addition to comparing price levels to a moving average, chartists can also analyze the direction of the moving average for directional clues. I added a "zoom thumbnail" so we can better see these two moving averages over the last three weeks. The 50-day SMA is clearly pointing down and the 200-day SMA is also moving lower over the last three weeks. Thus, we have an array of bearish trend indications on this chart. The index is below both moving averages, the 50-day is below the 200-day and both moving averages are pointing down. Such a bearish event also occurred in early September. Note that moving averages are lagging indicators and prone to whipsaw when there is no trend. Prior to the recent whipsaws, the 50-day held above the 200-day from February 2012 to August 2015 (strong uptrend).

Note that there was a golden cross as recently as December 21st when the 50-day SMA moved above the 200-day SMA. The S&P 500 also moved above both moving averages in late December, but failed to hold above these moving averages for very long. Should December's golden cross be negated today, it would mark the shortest golden cross signal in over 50 years
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 01:00:28 PM

Opinion: 7 reasons not to be pessimistic about stocks today

By Jeff Reeves
Published: Jan 15, 2016 2:04 p.m. ET

Panic has set in, but the economy and equity valuations are ought to make investors bullish
The stock market rout has given investors plenty to fret about, as the S&P 500 Index has slumped more than 7% so far this year.

Worse, some high-fliers, like AMZN, -3.85% and Netflix NFLX, -2.82% have been under pressure in recent weeks, making many wonder if there’s anything worth owning.

Hysterical headlines haven’t helped. And short-term declines on Wall Street aren’t the whole story. There are, actually, a lot of reasons to have confidence in stocks this year.

I’m not saying 2016 will see double-digit gains, or that the declines in certain stocks, notably energy companies, aren’t warranted. But there are many more opportunities than you might think.

Read: Are small-cap stocks the canary in the coal mine?

Here are seven reasons you shouldn’t give up on stocks this year, despite the short-term volatility:

Jobs: The rebound in the U.S. job market since the Great Recession has been nothing short of remarkable. The headline unemployment rate is holding strong at 5%, and the December jobs report showed an impressive 292,000 jobs created, trouncing expectations and building nicely on previous job creation. There are, indeed, serious problems in the global economy, but the U.S. labor market is not one of them.

Housing: An equally big driver of the U.S. economy is the housing market, and most indicators continue to point upward for the industry. In the latest “Beige Book” report from the Federal Reserve, “residential construction activity was described as modest or moderate” in most areas. And from a price perspective, the latest S&P/Case-Shiller composite of home prices rose again month-over-month and posted a 5.2% annual increase. Top that off with December data on housing starts that showed double-digit growth in both new construction and permitting, and it adds up to a healthy real estate market.

Also see: A bear market in stocks can be over before you know it

Oil: Cheap energy prices are causing plenty of pain, from lost jobs across the industry to the threat of bankruptcy for overleveraged companies. However, the rough math on Wall Street is that every penny we see shaved off from gas prices equals an extra $1 billion in discretionary income for American consumers. Separately, a recent study showed that for every dollar consumers save at the pump, they spend an extra 73 cents elsewhere in their communities. Since consumer spending is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy, cheap oil has enough benefits in broad economic stimulus to outweigh the specific troubles of energy companies.

Insulation from China: I recently wrote a column on why China’s crash isn’t as bad as you think, and the most compelling reason is the relative insulation of the U.S. economy and stocks from the Chinese market. Citigroup estimates that only 0.7% of overall GDP has direct China exposure, and the very nature of China “A” shares limit foreign investors from deploying too much capital in that country. While China’s slowdown matters, it matters much more to trading partners in emerging markets than the U.S.

Valuations: While there will always be stocks that trade for nosebleed price-to-earnings ratios, the market as a whole looks more fairly valued with each passing day. Currently, the forward P/E of the S&P 500 is only 15.8 or so, down from a peak close to 19 last year. Digging into specific picks, a host of big-name financial stocks including insurer MetLife MET, -0.97% and Bank of America BAC, -3.54% are trading for more than 30% discounts to book value. Elsewhere, automaker General Motors GM, -2.41% and retailer Best Buy BBY, +2.57% are trading for less than a third of next year’s sales. This is a long way of saying that there are challenges out there, but that Wall Street is starting to price many of these shortcomings into a host of stocks across all sectors.

U.S. dollar: The persistently strong U.S. dollar has acted as a big anchor on corporate profits for about a year, and a surge in the currency in the final months of 2015 added to concerns. However, the U.S. Dollar Index peaked at the beginning of December and has actually rolled back modestly even in the face of a Fed interest-rate increase. The fact that the U.S. dollar isn’t running much higher means that the currency headwinds faced by multinational companies at least won’t get any worse, even amid tightening policy at home and easy-money policies abroad.

The long term: It’s worth noting, of course, that a bad January does not a bad year make. It’s fashionable to cite the “January effect,” where the gain or loss in the first month of the year dictates the overall direction of the market 75% of the time. But investors who really care about statistics and trends should also listen to the preponderance of evidence that shows market timing doesn’t work. There has literally never been a 20-year period in the past century or so that has resulted in a negative return for stocks, so investors with the patience and constitution to see their portfolio through an admittedly rough start to the year should be rewarded regardless of the gloom and doom
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 16, 2016, 01:03:23 PM

Opinion: The stock market is freaking out about Trump and Sanders

By Brett Arends
Published: Jan 15, 2016 4:49 p.m. ET

Political uncertainty and the prospect of outsider candidates are panicking Wall Street
Getty Images/ Scott Olson
Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump, left, and Sen. Ted Cruz clashed at Thursday night’s debate.
Donald Trump wants to slap tariffs on China — and maybe Japan. He’d build a wall with Mexico. He promises a more pugnacious American posture in the world, and probably a lot more unilateralism.

Bernie Sanders wants to jack up the federal minimum wage, tax short-term stock market trading, and probably raise other taxes and regulations as well.

Both men are rising in the polls.

And as they’re going up, the stock market is going down.

Surprised? Don’t be.

Stock markets hate three things in this world. The first is anyone who dissents from the orthodoxy of MBA economics. The second is anyone they can’t control. The third is uncertainty.

In a worst-case scenario (for investors, at any rate), voters will pick one or two heterodox outsiders who will threaten to turn everything upside down.
And both Trump and Sanders are offering all three. We’re talking Wall Street Nightmare Bingo.

It may be no coincidence that the Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked on Friday, the day after another Republican debate. Trump confirmed his commanding lead in the race, while Jeb Bush went under for the third and, surely, final time.

Yes, of course, there are lots of reasons why stock markets are down so far this year. People are worried about the slowing Chinese economy. They’re worried about falling oil prices, rising interest rates and the dangers of overpriced stocks.

But as a money manager explained to me over lunch this week, he and his clients are also focusing now on a fifth worry: politics.

Even in Wall Street’s best-case scenario, the parties will only pick establishment candidates after months of bruising primary battles.

In a worst-case scenario (for investors, at any rate): They’ll pick one or two heterodox outsiders who will threaten to turn everything upside down.

The political establishment — in places like New York, Washington and Los Angeles — has been waiting for months for the Trump movement to flame out of its own accord. In the past few weeks they have finally woken up to the shock that this may not happen. Voting begins in Iowa and New Hampshire in a few months.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 08:34:49 AM

Bear market is here—expect another 15% plunge: Technician
Amanda Diaz   | @CNBCDiaz
2 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks were hit by a rush of selling this week that landed all major indices back in correction territory. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq are down a respective 12 percent, 12.7 percent and 12.4 percent from their 52-week high. As investors weigh on whether stocks will resume their bull run, one technician warns there could be significant downside ahead.

"Our 2016 outlook was 'stealth bear market is revealed' and we think very quickly that it's becoming apparent that we are in a bear market," Jonathan Krinsky, MKM Partners' chief technician, told CNBC's "Fast Money" recently. "The S&P 500 is now down more than 11 percent from its May high."

Read More Bob Doll: I don't see a bear market, but...
"I think that ultimately this third test of the August low probably gives way and the next level [of support] is 1,820," added Krinsky. During Friday's swoon, the broad market index had its worst day since Aug. 24, and pierced that month's lowest levels.

"But more importantly, for the first time in three years we are in a downtrend," Krinsky added. "The 200-day moving average is firmly to the downside, so if you are trying to buy the dips it's equivalent of selling the rallies over the last three years."

For Krinsky, the worst-case scenario for the S&P 500 could be a re-test of the breakout from 2007, which comes in around 1,575. "It seems scary but that's only about 25 percent off the highs and that's well within the confines of normal pullbacks," he said. That's a more than 16 percent move from Friday's price of around 1,885.

Furthermore he pointed to the Russell 2000, which is already in a bear market, as a "leading indicator" for where large-cap stocks are heading.

"The Russell 2000 is already down 22 percent from its highs," Krinsky said. "When the S&P 500 didn't take out its August low, the Russell did. It's making lower lows and we think the Russell goes back and re-tests its 2011 highs of 875." He said it's when the small-cap index gets to that 875 level when the S&P 500 is in real jeopardy.

Read More Market near a bottom. S&P to 2,350: Strategist

In this kind of tumultuous environment, Krinsky suggested investing in low-volatility names like utilities and consumer staples and avoiding high beta stocks
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 08:38:55 AM

When the market starts down 8 percent, it usually comes back
Eric Chemi   | Mark Fahey
Friday, 15 Jan 2016 | 4:02 PM ET
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The S&P 500 is down about 8 percent to start the year. That's an infrequent situation — in fact, this is the first time we've been so far down this early in the year in three decades, but it doesn't mean the market is doomed.

The market often bounces back when it's this far down in the first quarter. Hover on the chart below to see the odds change during the course of the year. Notice it keeps going down, which makes sense. The longer the market stays negative during the course of the year, the harder it is to end up finishing positive.

months into the year
We've bounced back before
The probability of bouncing back from a -8% YTDreturn, based on historical data.
chance of finishing the year positive
chance of finishing the year better than -8%
Source: FactSet (1978 to 2015)
The chart is a bit wild because there haven't been a lot of instances with an 8 percent drop to start the year. For days that have only one or two sample years that are this bad, the calculated probability jumps is either zero, 50 or 100 percent.

About half the time a year started off this bad, it ended up bouncing back to positive territory by the end of the year. The curve smooths out later in the year, when a year-to-date return of negative 8 percent ends with a gain about 30-40 percent of the time.

All hope isn't lost until late into the third quarter of the year. The market has never recovered from an 8 percent drop that late. The first and second quarters, though, aren't so much of a hurdle to overcome.

S&P 500 historical data since 1978 was used to build a probability curve for each weekday of the year
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 08:46:46 AM

Exclusive: Dallas Fed Quietly Suspends Energy Mark-To-Market On Default Contagion Fears
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 14:21 -0500

Dallas Fed default goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Jamie Dimon Reflexivity Regional Banks Regions Financial Warren Buffett Wells Fargo

Earlier this week, before first JPM and then Wells Fargo revealed that not all is well when it comes to bank energy loan exposure, a small Tulsa-based lender, BOK Financial, said that its fourth-quarter earnings would miss analysts’ expectations because its loan-loss provisions would be higher than expected as a result of a single unidentified energy-industry borrower. This is what the bank said:

“A single borrower reported steeper than expected production declines and higher lease operating expenses, leading to an impairment on the loan. In addition, as we noted at the start of the commodities downturn in late 2014, we expected credit migration in the energy portfolio throughout the cycle and an increased risk of loss if commodity prices did not recover to a normalized level within one year. As we are now into the second year of the downturn, during the fourth quarter we continued to see credit grade migration and increased impairment in our energy portfolio. The combination of factors necessitated a higher level of provision expense."
Another bank, this time the far larger Regions Financial, said its fourth-quarter charge-offs jumped $18 million from the prior quarter to $78 million, largely because of problems with a single unspecified energy borrower. More than one-quarter of Regions’ energy loans were classified as “criticized” at the end of the fourth quarter.

It didn't stop there and and as the WSJ added, "It’s starting to spread" according to William Demchak, chief executive of PNC Financial Services Group Inc. on a conference call after the bank’s earnings were announced. Credit issues from low energy prices are affecting "anybody who was in the game as the oil boom started,” he said. PNC said charge-offs rose in the fourth quarter from the prior quarter but didn’t specify whether that was due to issues in its relatively small $2.6 billion oil-and-gas portfolio.

Then, on Friday, U.S. Bancorp disclosed the specific level of reserves it holds against its $3.2 billion energy portfolio for the first time. "The reason we did that is that oil is under $30" said Andrew Cecere, the bank’s chief operating officer. What else will Bancorp disclose if oil drops below $20... or $10?

It wasn't just the small or regional banks either: as we first reported, on Thursday JPMorgan did something it hasn't done in 22 quarter: its net loan loss reserve increased as a result of a jump in energy loss reserves. On the earnings call, Jamie Dimon said that while he is not worried about big oil companies, his bank has started to increase provisions against smaller energy firms.


Then yesterday it was the turn of the one bank everyone had been waiting for, the one which according to many has the greatest exposure toward energy: Wells Fargo. To be sure, in order not to spook its investors, among whom most famously one Warren Buffett can be found, for Wells it was mostly "roses", although even Wells had no choice but to set aside $831 million for bad loans in the period, almost double the amount a year ago and the largest since the first quarter of 2013.

What was laughable is that the losses included $118 million from the bank’s oil and gas portfolio, an increase of $90 million from the third quarter. Why laughable? Because that $90 million in higher oil-and-gas loan losses was on a total of $17 billion in oil and gas loans, suggesting the bank has seen a roughly 0.5% impairment across its loan book in the past quarter.

How could this be? Needless to say, this struck us as very suspicious because it clearly suggests that something is going on for Wells (and all of its other peer banks), to rep and warrant a pristine balance sheet, at least until a "digital" moment arrives when just like BOK Financial, banks can no longer hide the accruing losses and has to charge them off, leading to a stock price collapse.

Which brings us to the focus of this post: earlier this week, before the start of bank earnings season, before BOK's startling announcement, we reported we had heard of a rumor that Dallas Fed members had met with banks in Houston and explicitly "told them not to force energy bankruptcies" and to demand asset sales instead.

We can now make it official, because moments ago we got confirmation from a second source who reports that according to an energy analyst who had recently met Houston funds to give his 1H16e update, one of his clients indicated that his firm was invited to a lunch attended by the Dallas Fed, which had previously instructed lenders to open up their entire loan books for Fed oversight; the Fed was shocked by with it had found in the non-public facing records. The lunch was also confirmed by employees at a reputable Swiss investment bank operating in Houston.

This is what took place: the Dallas Fed met with the banks a week ago and effectively suspended mark-to-market on energy debts and as a result no impairments are being written down. Furthermore, as we reported earlier this week, the Fed indicated "under the table" that banks were to work with the energy companies on delivering without a markdown on worry that a backstop, or bail-in, was needed after reviewing loan losses which would exceed the current tier 1 capital tranches.

In other words, the Fed has advised banks to cover up major energy-related losses.

 Why the reason for such unprecedented measures by the Dallas Fed? Our source notes that having run the numbers, it looks like at least 18% of some banks commercial loan book are impaired, and that’s based on just applying the 3Q marks for public debt to their syndicate sums.

In other words, the ridiculously low increase in loss provisions by the likes of Wells and JPM suggest two things: i) the real losses are vastly higher, and ii) it is the Fed's involvement that is pressuring banks to not disclose the true state of their energy "books."

Naturally, once this becomes public, the Fed risks a stampeded out of energy exposure because for the Fed to intervene in such a dramatic fashion it suggests that the US energy industry is on the verge of a subprime-like blow up.

Putting this all together, a source who wishes to remain anonymous, adds that equity has been levitating only because energy funds are confident the syndicates will remain in size to meet net working capital deficits. Which is a big gamble considering that as we firsst showed ten days ago, over the past several weeks banks have already quietly reduced their credit facility exposure to at least 25 deeply distressed (and soon to be even deeper distressed) names.


However, the big wildcard here is the Fed: what we do not know is whether as part of the Fed's latest "intervention", it has also promised to backstop bank loan losses. Keep in mind that according to Wolfe Research and many other prominent investors, as many as one-third of American oil-and-gas producers face bankruptcy and restructuring by mid-2017 unless oil rebounds dramatically from current levels.

However, the reflexivity paradox embedded in this problem was laid out yesterday by Goldman who explained that oil could well soar from here but only if massive excess supply is first taken out of the market, aka the "inflection phase."  In other words, for oil prices to surge, there would have to be a default wave across the US shale space, which would mean massive energy loan book losses, which may or may not mean another Fed-funded bailout of US and international banks with exposure to shale.

What does it all mean? Here is the conclusion courtesy of our source:

If revolvers are not being marked anymore, then it's basically early days of subprime when mbs payback schedules started to fall behind. My question for bank eps is if you issued terms in 2013 (2012 reserves) at 110/bbl, and redetermined that revolver in 2014 ‎at 86, how can you be still in compliance with that same rating and estimate in 2016 (knowing 2015 ffo and shutins have led to mechanically 40pc ffo decreases year over year and at least 20pc rebooting of pud and pdnp to 2p via suspended or cancelled programs). At what point in next 12 months does interest payments to that syndicate start to unmask the fact that tranch is never being recovered, which I think is what pva and mhr was all about.
Beyond just the immediate cash flow and stock price implications and fears that the situation with US energy is much more serious if it merits such an intimate involvement by the Fed, a far bigger question is why is the Fed once again in the a la carte bank bailout game, and how does it once again select which banks should mark their energy books to market (and suffer major losses), and which ones are allowed to squeeze by with fabricated marks and no impairment at all? Wasn't the purpose behind Yellen's rate hike to burst a bubble? Or is the Fed less than "macroprudential" when it realizes that pulling away the curtain on of the biggest bubbles it has created would result in another major financial crisis?

The Dallas Fed, whose new president Robert Steven Kaplan previously worked at Goldman Sachs for 22 years rising to the rank of vice chairman of investment banking, has not responded to our request for a comment as of this writing.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 08:50:26 AM

The Deflation Monster Has Arrived
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 12:04 -0500

Bear Market Central Banks China Chris Martenson Equity Markets Federal Reserve Housing Bubble Ludwig von Mises Main Street Real estate

Submitted by Chris Martenson via,

As we’ve been warning for quite a while (too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.

Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.

If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering:  What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis?

Sadly, we think so. While there may be a market rescue that provide some relief in the near term, looking at the next few years, we will experience this as a time of unprecedented financial market turmoil, political upheaval and social unrest. The losses will be staggering. Markets are going to crash, wealth will be transferred from the unwary to the well-connected, and life for most people will get harder as measured against the recent past.

It’s nothing personal; it’s just math. This is simply the way things go when a prolonged series of very bad decisions have been made. Not by you or me, mind you. Most of the bad decisions that will haunt our future were made by the Federal Reserve in its ridiculous attempts to sustain the unsustainable.

The Cost Of Bad Decisions

In spiritual terms, it is said that everything happens for a reason. When it comes to the Fed, however, I’m afraid that a less inspiring saying applies:

Yes, it’s easy to pick on the Fed now that it’s obvious that they’ve failed to bring prosperity to anyone but their inside coterie of rich friends and big client banks. But I’ve been pointing out the Fed’s grotesque failures for a very long time. Again, too long for my tastes.

I rather pointlessly wish that the central banks of the world had been reined in by the public before the crash of 2008. However the seeds of their folly were sown long before then:


Note the pattern in the above monthly chart of the S&P 500. A relatively minor market slump in 1994 was treated by the then Greenspan Fed with an astonishing burst of new money creation -- via its ‘sweeps” program response, which effectively eliminated reserve requirements for banks .That misguided policy created the first so-called Tech Bubble, which burst in 2000.

The next move by the Fed was to drop rates to 1%, which gave us the Housing Bubble. That was a much worse and more destructive event than the bubble that preceded it. And it burst in 2008.

Then the Fed (under Bernanke this time) dropped rates to 0%. The rest of the world’s central banks followed in lockstep (some going even further, into negative territory, as in Europe’s case). This has led to a gigantic, interconnected set of bubbles across equities, bonds and real estate -- virtually everywhere across the globe.

So the Fed's pattern here was: fixing a small problem with a bad decision, which lead to an even larger problem addressed by an even worse decision, resulting in an even larger set of problems that are now in the process of deflating/bursting.  Three sets of increasingly bad decisions in a row.

The amplitude and frequency of the bubbles and crashes are both increasing. As is the size and scope of the destruction.

The Even Larger Backdrop

The even larger backdrop to all of this is that the developed world, and recently China, have been stoking growth with debt, and have been doing so for a very long time.

Using the US as a proxy for other countries, this is what the lunacy looks like:

As practically everybody can quickly work out, increasing your debts at 2x the rate of your income eventually puts you in the poor house. As I said, it’s nothing personal; it’s just math.

But somehow, this math escaped the Fed’s researchers and policy makers as a problem. Well, turns out it is. And it’s now knocking loudly on the world’s door. The deflation monster has arrived.

The only possible way to rationalize such an increase in debt is to convince oneself that economic growth will come roaring back, and make it all okay. But the world is now ten years into an era of structurally weak GDP and there are no signs that high growth is coming back any time soon, if ever.

So the entire edifice of debt-funded growth is now being called into question -- at least by those who are paying attention or who aren't hopelessly blinkered by a belief system rooted in the high net energy growth paradigms of the past.

At any rate, I started the chart in 1970 because it was in 1971 that the US broke the dollar’s linkage to gold. The rest of the world complained for a bit at the time, but politicians everywhere quickly realized that the loss of the golden tether also allowed them to spend with wild abandon and rack up huge deficits. So it was wildly popular.

As long as everybody played along, this game of borrowing and then borrowing some more was fun. In one of the greatest circular backrubs of all time, the central banks and banking systems of the developed world all bought each other’s debt, pretending as if it all made sense somehow:


The above charts show how hopelessly entangled the worldwide web of debt has become. Yes, it's all made possible by the delusion that somehow being owed money by an insolvent entity will endlessly prevent your own insolvency from being revealed. How much longer can that delusion last?

All of this is really just the terminal sign of a major credit bubble -- a credit era, if you will -- drawing to a close.

I will once again rely upon this quote by Ludwig Von Mises because apparently its message has not yet sunk in everywhere it should have:

“ There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
~ Ludwig Von Mises
Well, the central banks of the world could not bring themselves to voluntarily end the credit expansion – that would have taken real courage.

So now we are facing something far worse.

Why The Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008

I’m not just calling for another run of the mill bear market for equities, but for the unwinding of the largest and most ill-conceived credit bubble in all of history. Equities are a side story to a larger one.

It’s global and it’s huge. This deflationary monster has no equal in all of history, so there’s not a lot of history to guide us here.

At Peak Prosperity we favor the model that predicts ‘first the deflation, then the inflation’ or the "Ka-Poom! Theory" as Erik Janszen at iTulip described it. While it may seem that we are many years away from runaway inflation (and some are doubting it will or ever could arrive again), here’s how that will probably unfold.

Faced with the prospect of watching the entire financial world burn to the figurative ground (if not literal in some locations), or doing something, the central banks will opt for doing something.

Given that their efforts have not yielded the desired or necessary results, what can they realistically do that they haven't already?

The next thing is to give money to Main Street.

That is, give money to the people instead of the banks. Obviously puffing up bank balance sheets and income statements has only made the banks richer. Nobody else besides a very tiny and already wealthy minority has really benefited. Believe it or not, the central banks are already considering shifting the money spigot towards the public.

You might receive a credit to your bank account courtesy of the Fed. Or you might receive a tax rebate for last year. Maybe even a tax holiday for this year, with the central bank monetizing the resulting federal deficits.

Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is.

This "helicopter money" spree will juice the system one last time, stoking the flames of inflation. And while the central banks assume they can control what happens next, I think they cannot.

Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 08:57:50 AM

Earthquake Economics - Waiting For The Inevitable "Big One"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 13:15 -0500

Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Prices CPI Federal Reserve President Obama PrISM Recession

Submitted by MN Gordon (via Prism Economics), annotated by's Pater Tenebrarum,

Beyond Human Capacity

“The United States of America, right now, has the strongest, most durable economy in the world,” said President Obama, in his State of the Union address, on Tuesday night.  What performance metrics he based his assertion on is unclear.  But we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.


A collapsed building is seen in Concepcion , Chile, Thursday, March 4, 2010. An 8.8-magnitude earthquake struck central Chile early Saturday, causing widespread damage.  (AP Photo/ Natacha Pisarenko)



Maybe this is so…right now.  But it isn’t eternal.  For at grade, hidden in plain sight, a braid of positive and negative surface flowers indicate an economic strike-slip fault extends below.  What’s more, the economy’s foundation dangerously straddles across it.



Actually, it probably isn’t so – the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now measure, which has proven surprisingly accurate thus far, indicates that the US economy is hanging by a thread – and the above chart does now yet include the string of horrendous economic data released since January 8.


Something must slip.  A massive vertical rupture is coming that will collapse everything within a wide-ranging proximity.  It is not a matter of if it will come.  But, rather, of when…regardless of what the President says.

Here at the Economic Prism we have no reservations about the U.S. – or world – economy.  We see absurdities and inconsistencies.  We see instabilities perilously pyramided up, which could rapidly cascade down.  We just don’t know when.

Comprehending and connecting the infinite nodes and relationships within an economy are beyond even the most intelligent human’s capacity.  Cause and effect chains are not always immediately observable.  Feedback loops are often circuitous and unpredictable.  What is at any given moment may not be what it appears.


Not Without Consequences

For instance, the Federal Reserve quadrupled its balance sheet following the 2008 financial crisis, yet consumer prices hardly budged.  Undeniably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer price index is subject to gross manipulation.  We’re not endorsing the veracity of the CPI.

We’re merely pointing out policies have been implemented that have massively increased the quantity of money, yet we can still get a hot cup of donut shop coffee for less than a buck.  Obviously, the effects of these policies have shown up in certain assets…like U.S. stocks.  That’s not to say they won’t still show up in consumer prices.  They most definitely will.


2-Core CPI

One should perhaps not be too surprised that most prices are far from declining – even when measured by government methods that are specifically designed to play price increases down in order to lower the growth rates of so-called COLA expenses (and leaving aside the fact that the so-called “general level of prices” is a myth anyway and actually cannot be measured) – click to enlarge.


The point is no one really knows when consumer prices will rapidly rise.  The potential is very real.  Like desert scrub tumbling along a highway edge, one little spark could send prices up in a bush fire.  Moreover, the longer the Fed can seemingly get away with their efforts to inflate in perpetuity, the greater the disaster that awaits us.

In the meantime, their policies are not without consequences.  Price distortions flourish to the extent they appear normal.  Nevertheless, upon second glance, apparent incongruities greet us everywhere we look.

The sad fact is an honest day’s work has been debased to where it’s no longer rewarded with an honest day’s pay.  At the same time the positive effects of productive labor, diligent savings, and prudent spending now take a lifetime – or more – to fully manifest.

Conversely, the negative effects of borrowing gobs of money and taking abundant risks can masquerade as shrewd business acumen for extended bubble periods.


3-Real Median Household Income

Even when deflated by the government’s own flawed “inflation” measurements, real median household income is back to where it was 20 years ago already. This is definitely not a sign of economic progress. In fact, this datum is testament to how much capital has been malinvested and hence wasted due to Fed policy-inspired serial credit and asset bubbles – click to enlarge.


Earthquake Economics

During an economic boom, particularly a boom puffed up with the Fed’s cheap credit, madmen get rich.  They borrow money at an artificial discount and place big bets on rising asset prices.

They don’t care they are placing those bets within a dangerous seismic zone.  The rewards are too great.  Eventually asset bubbles always exhaust themselves.  Price movements reverse.  They stop inflating.  They start deflating.

Subsequently, as the bubble exhales, the risk taking beneficiaries of the expansion are exposed.  The downside, no doubt, is less pleasant than the upside.  Ask U.S. oil shale producers.  Just 18 months ago they were raking in cash hand over fist.  Lenders were tripping over themselves to extend credit for fracked wells.

But how quickly things change.  Oil prices fell below $30 per barrel on Tuesday.  Break-even costs for many producers are double that – or more.  In other words, lenders and borrowers alike are staring the downside into the face now.


4-Oil Debt

Sitting on a powder keg: oil-related debt has experienced staggering growth – reaching a new peak at what appears to be an exceptionally inopportune juncture, to put it mildly.


In fact, according to a report from AlixPartners, North American oil-and-gas producers are losing nearly $2 billion every week at current prices.  Naturally, capital could only be misdirected to this extent under errant central bank policies of mass credit creation.

Several more slips like this one and the President’s strongest, most durable economy in the world could backslide into recession. On top of that, ‘the big one’ could rupture at any moment
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 01:54:10 PM

Not just oil and China, tech is falling apart
Tae Kim   | @firstadopter
Friday, 15 Jan 2016 | 3:37 PM ET
Justin Sullivan / Staff | Getty Images News
Although the plunge in oil prices and China's stock market dominate the headlines, new developments this week show another key leg is faltering — technology stocks.

Nasdaq is down more than 10 percent for the month, on pace for its worst monthly performance since October 2008, during the financial crisis. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF is down more than 12 percent year-to-date. Both are tracking significantly worse than the general market.

Intel dropped more than 8 percent Friday after reporting weaker than expected data center segment sales and financial guidance. After taking account of the $400 million revenue benefit from the recent Altera acquisition, Intel's first quarter forecast was lower than historical seasonality norms.

"This outlook represents a soft start to the year, as we remain cautious on the level of economic growth, particularly in China," Intel's chief financial officer Stacy Smith said on the earnings conference call Thursday, according to a FactSet transcript.
Intel's disappointing news follows the market research firm IDC's report Tuesday, which stated 2015 was the worst annual decline for PC shipments in history.

It's not just the computer business that is fading. The vaunted smart-phone business is starting to sputter too.

Best Buy disheartened technology investors looking for an end-market bottom Thursday, when it announced weaker-than-expected holiday sales. The largest electronics retailer reported a domestic comparable sales decline of 7.2 percent year-over-year in the computing and mobile phones segment, during the nine weeks ending Jan. 2.

Analog Devices, a key component supplier for Apple's iPhone, revised lower January quarter revenue guidance Thursday from its previous forecast of $805 million to $855 million to a new range of $745 million to $765 million.

The company blamed, "weaker than forecast customer demand in the company's portable consumer business unit, which began in December, and is expected to continue into the second fiscal quarter."

As computer and smartphone chip fundamentals worsen, investors should stay cautious on companies reliant on the sectors. Here are tech stocks investors may want to avoid
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 02:11:27 PM

CNN Reassures Investors: "Don't Panic... America's Economy Is Still In Good Shape"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2016 20:00 -0500

China Great Depression Real estate Shadow Stats Unemployment

Submitted by Mac Slavo via,

Forget for a moment that U.S. stock markets have seen their worst start to a new year since the Great Depression or that some $2.5 trillion in wealth has been evaporated in less than two weeks.

CNN says it’s hardly the time to panic:

Time to panic? Hardly.
There are plenty of reasons to relax, especially if you are a U.S investor. Here are the top two:
1. America’s economy is still in good shape.
2. Staying in stocks pays off. Since World War II, investors who remained in stocks for at least 15 years made money
Right now, the U.S. economy is growing. It’s not rock star growth, but 2% to 2.5% a year is good, and the Fed is being very cautious.
More importantly, businesses are still hiring. Over 2.3 million jobs were added last year (the latest data on hiring comes out Friday and it’s widely expected to show more jobs added).
Pay no attention to the fact that last week not a single cargo ship was transporting raw materials in the South China Sea, the first time in history that it has happened. The economy is is great shape and this is not proof that global commerce has literally stopped.

Worry not that Walmart, Macy’s and scores of other retailers had an abysmal holiday season and are now set to lay off tens of thousands of workers. Unemployment, when calculated using models that were used during the Great Depression and that were defined out of existence by the government in 1994 show that some 23% of Americans are out of work. But we don’t calculate like that anymore, so we actually have an employment rate of about 95% in America right now.

And though the economy is officially growing at 2.5% per year based on the government’s trustworthy data, we should absolutely not look at the inflation numbers, which according to Shadow Stats are running about 4% per year. If we did, however, go totally fringe and consider inflation within the context of the economy we might notice that this purported growth is actually negative 2% if not worse.

In fact, we’re doing so well that just 45 million of America’s population of 320 million people are on food stamps right now. By all accounts, a really good sign of not just economic growth, but more jobs and an increase in personal incomes.

And with oil trading at under $30 per barrel, we can see nothing but blue skies going forward because, hey, we’re all paying a dollar less for gas now. We’re sure this will have no effect on the domestic real estate market in places like Texas and North Dakota. Nor will this collapse in oil prices cause debt burdened domestic oil companies to close up shop, potentially leading to a domino affect across the entirety of the U.S. economy. Nor will it have any impact on periphery businesses that service those companies, including all of those restaurants that saw below-minimum wage job growth explode last year.

You have absolutely nothing to worry about. The notion that an economic and financial catastrophe of historic proportions is playing out right before our eyes is the fantasy of internet conspiracy fanatics.

At this point, we encourage our readers to take no action to prepare for the coming calamity, because there is no coming calamity.

Carry on. Everything is awesome. It really is different this time.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 17, 2016, 02:25:39 PM

Barron’s 2016 Roundtable, Part 1: A World of Opportunities
Our nine investment pros see lots of cheap stocks, but little chance that the market will rally sharply in 2016. Why global growth is challenged, rates will stay low, and India could prosper.

Order Reprints
January 16, 2016
Serious, substantive, sobering. Alas, we’re not referring to any of this year’s presidential contenders, but to the thoughtful talk of economics, markets, and investments that dominated the 2016 Barron’s Roundtable. Turbulent times demand such an appraisal, and that’s what our nine investment panelists delivered in spades.

Optimism was in short supply at our annual gathering, held last Monday at the Harvard Club of New York, probably owing, in part, to stocks’ horrific swoon the prior week. Opinions were as plentiful as troubled energy bonds, however. Broadly speaking, these Wall Street luminaries see more stock market turmoil, junk-bond mayhem, and global strife in the year ahead. They also see Hillary Clinton winning the White House—except for those who think the vote will go to Donald Trump.

Photo: Brad Trent for Barron's
Some ’round the table expect U.S. stocks to end the year flat or down, while others see modest gains on the order of 7%. Nearly all agree that judiciously buying undervalued equities will yield far greater returns than sticking with index funds. Our panelists expect the U.S. economy to expand only modestly this year, by a bit more than 2%, while China’s economy will continue to struggle, leading to further devaluation of the Chinese currency and continued pressure on commodities and emerging markets.

2015 Roundtable Report Card

2015 Mid-Year Roundtable Report Card

The group thinks the Federal Reserve, which finally lifted interest rates in December for the first time in seven years, won’t hike four more times during 2016, notwithstanding its stated intentions. That’s because market conditions simply won’t allow it. Indeed, Fed Chair Janet Yellen might even be forced to ease again after lifting rates one more time, says Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the world’s best bond investors, co-founder of Los Angeles–based DoubleLine Capital, and a newcomer to the Roundtable. The other fresh face in the crowd is that of William Priest, CEO and co-chief investment officer of New York’s Epoch Investment Partners, who boasts a long and successful record of mining macroeconomic trends to identify smart investments.

Gundlach is bracingly bearish, Priest only slightly less so. Brian Rogers, however, chairman of T. Rowe Price and one of this week’s two featured stockpickers, is an optimist by nature. These days, he is buying shares of companies that have been excessively punished by investors, and that sport healthy dividends and strong financials. American Express (ticker: AXP) and Macy’s (M) are high on his list.

Oscar Schafer, chairman of Rivulet Capital in New York, is also a stockpicker, who bargain-hunts among mid- and small-cap names. He notes that the market’s smaller fry have been in a stealth bear market for the past year, even as the Facebooks and Amazons of the world have gone to the moon. Yet Oscar likes the prospects for three smaller stocks, including Calpine (CPN), the merchant power producer, which he highlights in this week’s Roundtable issue, the first of three.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 18, 2016, 07:28:34 AM

Oil about to get bullish, but stocks another story: Analyst
Leanne Miller   | @LeanneBMiller
2 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

On Friday, U.S. Brent crude hit a fresh 12-year low as fears that the lifting of Iranian sanctions could flood an already oversupplied market for crude.

In spite of the sell-off, the man who correctly saw the steep market correction in August told CNBC that investors would be smart to buy oil at these levels — and short the stock market.

"Markets estimate the probability of a spike in oil, and a bear market at about 3 percent," JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, told the "Fast Money" last week. "But we think it's actually much higher."

Kolanovic's theory comes from looking at past instances of when crude has dramatically underperformed the equities market, as it is on Friday. In each of the 10 instances in the last 30 years this happened, oil eventually came back with a vengeance.

By the end of the year, the Global Head of Derivative and Quantitative strategy says $45-$50 oil is fully reasonable to expect while "the doubling of oil prices to $60 is actually quite possible."

Shareholders observe the stock market at a stock exchange corporation in Nantong, China.
Buckle up: China could rock markets next week

China's yuan could tumble 10% or more

Late Friday, analysts at Goldman Sachs told clients in a research note that a key theme for the year will be "real fundamental adjustments that can rebalance markets to create the birth of a new bull market, which we still see happening in late 2016." The bank expects U.S. crude prices to rebound to $40 per barrel sometime before July.
So what exactly could send crude higher?
Potential drivers of oil, Kolanovic told CNBC, are a large covering of record shorts, or investor bets that crude will continue to slide. Additionally, the stabilization of many emerging markets that may lead to an uptick in demand, and the prospect that markets could finally see supply cuts agreed upon by oil producers, could also boost prices, he added.
"This convergence can happen in two ways," the analyst said. "You can have oil going higher or you can have S&P 500 Index going lower, or some combination of the two," Kolanovic said. "We think this time isn't different than history, and we do think we'll see some convergence of that spread."

Bear market coin toss

In equities, there are even more forces at play that could send the S&P into a bear market.
Triggers that will send the index lower are everything from stagflation, an "earnings recession" for S&P 500 stocks, change in investor sentiment, China's slowdown and consistent Fed hikes, Kolanovic says.
In his estimation, when you take a close look at the history of bull and bear markets over the last 50 years, there are a total of 20 cycles that correlate highly to the current market, both in size and duration. The average bull market lasts four years with returns of 90 percent, while the average bear market lasts one year, with an average pullback of 33 percent.
"If the bull market is to end now, it would be in line with history," Kolanovic told "Fast Money" producers. "I'm reading that there is more of a 50/50 chance rather than a 25 percent chance of going into a bear market."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 18, 2016, 08:40:17 AM

The Fed's Stunning Admission Of What Happens Next
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/17/2016 11:31 -0500

Bank of America Bank of America Bank of International Settlements Bill Gross Bond Bridgewater Federal Reserve France Great Depression Monetary Policy Money Supply Nikkei None Quantitative Easing Recession recovery Switzerland

Following an epic stock rout to start the year, one which has wiped out trillions in market capitalization, it has rapidly become a consensus view (even by staunch Fed supporters such as the Nikkei Times) that the Fed committed a gross policy mistake by hiking rates on December 16, so much so that this week none other than former Fed president Kocherlakota openly mocked the Fed's credibility when he pointed out the near record plunge in forward breakevens suggesting the market has called the Fed's bluff on rising inflation.

All of this happened before JPM cut its Q4 GDP estimate from 1.0% to 0.1% in the quarter in which Yellen hiked.

To be sure, the dramatic reaction and outcome following the Fed's "error" rate hike was predicted on this website on many occasions, most recently two weeks prior to the rate hike in "This Is What Happened The Last Time The Fed Hiked While The U.S. Was In Recession" when we demonstrated what would happen once the Fed unleashed the "Ghost of 1937."

As we pointed out in early December, conveniently we have a great historical primer of what happened the last time the Fed hiked at a time when it misread the US economy, which was also at or below stall speed, and the Fed incorrectly assumed it was growing.

We are talking of course, about the infamous RRR-hike of 1936-1937, which took place smack in the middle of the Great Recession.

Here is what happened then, as we described previously in June.

[No episode is more comparable to what is about to happen] than what happened in the US in 1937, smack in the middle of the Great Depression. This is the only time in US history which is analogous to what the Fed will attempt to do, and not only because short rates collapsed to zero between 1929-36 but because the Fed’s balance sheet jumped from 5% to 20% of GDP to offset the Great Depression.
Just like now.
Follows a detailed narrative of precisely what happened from a recent Bridgewater note:

The first tightening in August 1936 did not hurt stock prices or the economy, as is typical.
The tightening of monetary policy was intensified by currency devaluations by France and Switzerland, which chose not to move in lock-step with the US tightening. The demand for dollars increased. By late 1936, the President and other policy makers became increasingly concerned by gold inflows (which allowed faster money and credit growth).
The economy remained strong going into early 1937. The stock market was still rising, industrial production remained strong, and inflation had ticked up to around 5%. The second tightening came in March of 1937 and the third one came in May. While neither the Fed nor the Treasury anticipated that the increase in required reserves combined with the sterilization program would push rates higher, the tighter money and reduced liquidity led to a sell-off in bonds, a rise in the short rate, and a sell-off in stocks. Following the second increase in reserves in March 1937, both the short-term rate and the bond yield spiked.
Stocks also fell that month nearly 10%. They bottomed a year later, in March of 1938, declining more than 50%!
Or, as Bank of America summarizes it: "The Fed exit strategy completely failed as the money supply immediately contracted; Fed tightening in H1’37 was followed in H2’37 by a severe recession and a 49% collapse in the Dow Jones."

* * *

As it turns out, however, the Fed did not even have to read this blog, or Bank of America, or even Bridgewater, to know the result of its rate hike. All it had to do was to read... the Fed.

But first, as J Pierpont Morgan reminds us, it was Charles Kindleberger's "The World in Depression" which summarized succinctly just how 2015/2016 is a carbon copy of the 1936/1937 period. In explaining how and why both the markets and the economy imploded so spectacularly after the Fed's decision to tighten in 1936, Kindleberger says:

"For a considerable time there was no understanding of what had happened. Then it became clear. The spurt in activity from October 1936 had been dominated by inventory accumulation. This was especially the case in automobiles, where, because of fears of strikes, supplies of new cars had been built up. It was the same in steel and textiles - two other industries with strong CIO unions."
If all off this sounds oddly familiar, here's the reason why: as we showed just last week, while inventories remain at record levels, wholesale sales are crashing, and the result is that the nominal spread between inventories and sales is all time high.

The inventory liquidation cycle was previewed all the way back in June in "The Coming US Recession Charted" long before it bacame "conventional wisdom."

Kindleberger continues:

When it became evident after the spring of of 1937 that commodity prices were not going to continue upward, the basis for the inventory accumulation was undermined, and first in textiles, then in steel, the reverse procees took place.
Oil anyone?

And then this: "The steepest economic descent in the history of the United States, which lost half the ground gained for many indexes since 1932, proved that the economic recovery in the United States had been built on an illusion."

Which, of course, is what we have been saying since day 1, and which even such finance legends as Bill Gross now openly admit when they say that the zero-percent interest rates and quantitative easing created leverage that fueled a wealth effect and propped up markets in a way that now seems unsustainable, adding that "the wealth effect is created by leverage based on QE’s and 0% rates."

And not just Bill Gross. The Fed itself.

Yes, it was the Fed itself who, in its Federal Reserve Bulletin from June 1938 as transcribed in the 8th Annual General Meeting of the Bank of International Settlements, uttered the following prophetic words:

The events of 1929 taught us that the absence of any rise in prices did not prove that no crisis was pending. 1937 has taught us that an abundant supply of gold and a cheap money policy do not prevent prices from falling.
If only the Fed had listened to, well, the Fed.

What happened next? The chart below shows the stock market reaction in 1937 to the Fed's attempt to tighten smack in the middle pf the Great Depression.

If the Fed was right, the far more prophetic 1937 Fed that is not the current wealth effect-pandering iteration, then the market is about to see half its value wiped out.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 19, 2016, 07:17:41 AM

Here's something unusual about the sell-off: Trader
Amanda Diaz   | @CNBCDiaz
8 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks are swimming in a sea of red as the S&P 500 Index plunged to levels not seen since October 2014.

Despite the jarring move lower, the market's so-called fear gauge, or VIX, has remained unusually calm.

"What we've seen out of the options market is the lack of expectation of this sell-off that came, volatility was really muted," Harvest Volatility Group's Dennis Davitt told CNBC's "Trading Nation" last week.

"Most of the conversations on options trading desks this week up and down Wall Street were about the lack of the performance that we're seeing in the VIX," he added.

The VIX, which trades inversely with the S&P 500, briefly peeked above 30 on Friday. Yet the index has steadily traded near 25 for the majority of this year's brutal tumble. That's significantly lower than the levels seen during the August swoon.
"With the worst market opening in the last 100 years, we're certainly not seeing that in the options space," he added.
For Davitt, that could mean that this is an orderly pullback rather than something more, but the technicals are telling a different story.

Read MoreThese are risks for markets in week ahead

'More and more'

"What we've noticed in the past two weeks is a loss of momentum that's more than just short term," said BTIG technician Katie Stockton. "More and more stocks are participating in the down move."

Out of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial average, Wal-Mart is the only one able to eke out a gain in 2016, with many stocks trading at their August lows.
"It's very much a top-down move, it's a market driven move, not company specific," added Stockton. "We have a lot of breakdowns on the charts. Stocks are taking out levels where they previously had buying interest and that includes a lot of the major indices."
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq closed last week firmly in correction territory, with each index down roughly 12 percent from their respective highs
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 19, 2016, 07:22:13 AM

One reason this selloff may not mean a crisis is coming

By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Jan 18, 2016 10:38 a.m. ET

The bear growls alone sometimes.
While a stock market selloff and a recession have gone hand in hand in the past, investors would be wise to not automatically assume the two are joined at the hip.

That’s the latest wisdom from A Wealth of Common Sense blogger Ben Carlson, who tackled the “recession watch” that has started to grip many investors on the heels of the worst start for U.S. stocks in history. For 2015 so far, the Dow industrials DJIA, -2.39%  and S&P 500 index SPX, -2.16%   are down at least 8%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -2.74%  has shed more than 10%.

Four of the last eight economic downturns have come alongside big market crashes — 1929-32, 1937-38, 1973-74, 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 — he noted in a blog post Sunday. For that reason, some investors have started watching for signs of an economic downturn.

He himself doesn’t see a recession on the cards, noting that “we don’t generally go into a recession until excesses have built up in the system. It’s the old adage that you can’t kill yourself jumping off of a 2-foot ledge.”

As for the solidity of that relationship, he says pullbacks for stocks have also occurred without an accompanying recession. “Double-digit losses and even bear markets can certainly occur without a big economic downturn,” said Carlson, who notes that that’s been the case around one out of every five years since the late 1930s.

His chart shows the number of double-digit declines the S&P 500 has seen that haven’t come with a recession:

Wealth of Common Sense
Now, just to keep you from weeping in your beers too copiously, Carlson has also charted what the markets have done five and 10 years after those no-recession double-digit drops for stocks — such as a 103% bounce for the S&P 500, five years after melting down in 2010:
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 19, 2016, 07:32:56 AM

With Bulls At A Decade Low An Oversold Bounce Is Imminent, But JPM Repeats To Sell Any Rips
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/18/2016 14:57 -0500

Bear Market Recession Yield Curve

One week ago, and just days before Kolanovic again warned - correctly - that a market slump is imminent, JPM's "other" Croat, Mislav Matejka said to "Use Any Bounces As Selling Opportunities." Any bulls who listened to him are in less pain than those who didn't. So what does Matejka think now that all indices are in correction territory and a majority of stocks are in a bear market?

The short answer: an oversold bounce is imminent. Here's why:

A number of tactical indicators we follow are suggesting the market is getting close to being oversold in the very short term. The Bull-Bear spread hit -28%, one of the lowest readings since March ’09.

Over that period, every time Bull-Bear moved to this level, equities were up on 1, 3 and 6 months.

Within the survey, the proportion of bulls fell to the lowest level since ’05.

Also, S&P500 RSI  last week dipped below 30, to oversold territory.

Equities were on average up 4% over the next 1 month, on most occasions, from these levels of RSI.

Finally, Macro HF beta has moved closer to zero – suggesting that investors have de-risked.


To be sure a rebound higher to close the "gaps" is also the current case of Loic Schmid, head of asset management at Geneva Swiss Bank, who anticipates a 6-8% rebound higher, in line with JPM's expectations.

How big does JPM believe the bounce will be: "perhaps up to half of the earlier decline could be unwound."

What happens next? As JPM itself admits: fade any initial rebound, and STFD. Here is JPM again:

The key message in our view stays to use any short term, few weeks, market stabilization as an opportunity to sell on a 6, 12 and perhaps even 24 month horizon. At end November we cut our long held structural OW on equities, and believe the regime has shifted to the bearish one for stocks.
The big picture is that we have entered the bear market – we think rallies should ultimately be sold. While oversold markets suggest a near term bounce is likely, we would recommend using any strength as a selling opportunity from a medium term perspective.
Our structural stance on equities has changed at end November. In a nutshell, we believe that the bull market is finished, and find the risk-reward for stocks not attractive anymore over a medium term horizon.

In addition, the Fed typically doesn’t start hiking after a period of worsening credit spreads, in contrast to what is happening currently.
Finally, the yield curve is flattening post the latest hike, and bonds are rallying, in contrast with past observations. We think these are ominous signals.

In our view, one doesn’t need growth weakness to materialize in order to justify a bearish equity call. Of course, if the US is slipping into a recession, and consequently profit margins are about to fall, the significant downside can be very easily imagined.
We fear though that equities could perform poorly even in the case of US growth staying resilient for longer. The continued Fed hiking will likely prop up the USD, which in turn would put additional pressure on CNY to depreciate, and on credit spreads to widen, as well as on commodities to fall => resulting in lower equities. This is what defines a worsening risk-reward for stocks.
To summarize: BTFD is dead, long live BTFD... or in this case STFR.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 19, 2016, 08:51:30 PM

Opinion: The U.S. stock market’s fate hangs on this critical number

By Howard Gold
Published: Jan 19, 2016 5:22 a.m. ET

Equities are falling to a support level that will determine if there’s a bear market

If stocks fall below 1867.61, stock market technicians say, the bull market is over.
The U.S. stock market faces a crucial test Tuesday after the long weekend.

After the worst 10-day start of a calendar year ever, the major stock market averages are on the cusp of the first real bear market since the financial crisis.

Bullish and bearish technicians agree on one make-or-break number as the threshold that will determine whether this latest correction will become a bear market, generally defined as a 20% decline from a previous peak.

What’s the number? The S&P 500 Index’s Aug. 25 correction closing low of 1867.61. That, technicians agree, is the support level the market must hold for the bull to continue. It’s the market’s answer to Powerball, though this time it’s winner take all.

“The support break will occur if and when the index falls below its August low of 1,867, to the nearest penny,” wrote the bearish Michael Kahn in his “Getting Technical” column in

‘For me, almost everything is in place for the third cyclical bear market of the 21st century.’
Michael Kahn in his ‘Getting Technical’ column
“The S&P below 1,875-1,925 spells ‘bear market’ and above 2,135 … spells ‘continuation of the bull market,’ ” wrote the bullish Ron Meisels in his Phases & Cycles newsletter.

That support level is about 13% below the S&P 500’s all-time closing high of 2130.82 on May 21. Since then, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite index have had a couple of sell-offs and rallies but have been unable to match their previous highs.

That may turn out to be a critical failure for the bulls.

“… The bull needs to re-assert itself soon in a visible up trend,” wrote Meisels. “The S&P 500 recovered well from its August/September lows, but … the inability of bullish forces to put together a concerted rally and break out above this recovery high [of 2,116 in November] remains a big concern.”

In fact, the major averages have been in technical down trends for months.

“The percent of [New York Stock Exchange] stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages has been less than 50% since June … and the NYSE composite index itself has been in decline since May, telling us that the average stock already is in a bear market,” wrote Kahn. “For me, almost everything is in place for the third cyclical bear market of the 21st century.”

Meisels, however, cited the high percentage of stocks below their 10- and 30-week moving averages as contrarian indicators; they’re at levels nearly identical to where they were at the August lows, which were followed by the big September-October rally that Meisels called correctly when we spoke last fall.

As of last week, Meisels was expecting the final leg of the bull market to take the S&P 500 above its previous highs.

“A move above 2,116 would change the pattern of gently declining highs that has been in force since last May and would place the S&P 500 firmly above its 200-day moving average,” he wrote.

But that could happen only if the S&P 500 holds current support levels and keeps from falling, and staying, below 1,867.

What if it doesn’t? According to some technicians, the next major support level would be the previous S&P 500 all-time high of 1,575, which it first surpassed in March 2013. That would mark a 26% decline from its June 2015 all-time high.

As I wrote last week, the combination of a struggling global economy, weak earnings, a strong dollar and higher interest rates should be enough to push the markets into the next bear.

I think that 26% drop is about what we’ll get in a classic cyclical bear market, which I don’t expect to be accompanied by a financial crisis like the last one was.

So watch that magic number of 1,867 in the coming days; it may tell you all you need to know about where the market is going in 2016.

Howard R. Gold is a MarketWatch columnist and founder and editor of GoldenEgg Investing, which offers exclusive market commentary and low-cost, low-risk retirement investing plans. Follow him on Twitter @howardrgold
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 20, 2016, 05:37:19 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 20, 2016, 07:16:02 AM

Why This Slump Has Legs
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 10:14 -0500

Brazil Capital Markets Central Banks China Circuit Breakers ETC Eurozone Federal Reserve France Germany Greece Housing Market Ireland Mars Portugal Reality recovery Shadow Banking St Louis Fed St. Louis Fed Testimony

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

We’ve only really been in two weeks of trading in the new year, things are looking pretty bad to say the least, so predictably the press are asking -and often answering- questions about when the slump will be over. Rebound, recovery, the usual terminology. When will we get back to growth?

For me personally, but that’s just me, that last question sounds a bit more stupid every single time I hear and read it. Just a bit, but there’s been a lot of those bits, more than I care to remember. Luckily, the answer is easy. The slump will not be over for a very long time, there will be no rebound or recovery, and please stop talking about a return to growth unless you can explain what you want to grow into.

I’m sorry, I know that’s not what you want to hear, but life’s a * and so’s the economy. You’ve lived on pink fumes for a long time, most of you for their whole lives, but reality dictates that real ‘growth’ stopped decades ago, and you never figured that out because, and I quote here (see below), you and the world you’re part of became “addicted to borrowing money, spending it, and passing this off as ‘growth'”.

That you believed this was actual growth, however, is on you. You fell for a scam and you’re going to have to pay the price. If there’s one single thing people are good at, it’s lying. It’s as old as human history, and it happens every day, so you’re no exception to any rule. You’re perhaps just not particularly clever.

How do we know a ‘recovery’ is so far off it’s really no use to even talk about it? As I said, it’s easy. Let me lead this in with a graph I saw just today, which deals with a topic the Automatic Earth has covered a lot: marginal debt, or more precisely, the productivity/growth gained from each additional dollar of debt.

Please note, this particular graph deals with private non-financial debt only, we’ll get to other kinds of added debt, but that restriction is actually quite illuminating.

Now of course, you have to wonder about the parameters the St. Louis Fed uses for its data and graphs, and whether ‘growth’ was all that solid in the run up to 2008. There’s plenty of very valid arguments that would say growth in the 1960’s was a whole lot more solid than that in the naughties, after the Glass-Steagall repeal, and after the blubber.

However, that’s not what I want to take away from this, I use this to show what has happened since 2008, more than before, when it comes to “passing debt off as ‘growth'”.

But it’s another thing that has happened since 2008, or rather not happened, that points out to us why this slump will have legs. That is, in 2008 a behemoth bubble started bursting, and it was by no means just US housing market. That bubble should have been allowed to fully deflate, because that is the only way to allow an economy to do a viable restart.

Instead, all that has been done since 2008, QE, ZIRP, the works, has been aimed at keeping a facade ‘alive’, and aimed at protecting the interests of the bankers and other rich parties. That facade, expressed most of all in rising stock markets, has allowed for societies to be gutted while people were busy watching the S&P rise to 2,100 and the Kardashians bare 2,100 body parts.

It was all paid for, apart from western QE, with $28 trillion and change of newfangled Chinese debt. The problem with this is that if you find yourself in a bubble and you don’t go through the inevitable deleveraging process that follows said bubble in a proper fashion, you’re not only going to kill economies, you’ll destroy entire societies.

And that is not just morally repugnant, it also works as much against the rich as it does against the poor. It’s just that that is a step too far for most people to understand. That even the rich need a functioning society, and that inequality as we see it today is a real threat to everyone.

Recognizing this simple fact, and the consequences that follow from it, is nothing new. It’s why in days of old, there were debt jubilees. It’s also why we still quote the following from Marriner Eccles, chairman of the Federal Reserve under FDR and Truman from 1934-1948, in his testimony to the Senate Committee on the Investigation of Economic Problems in 1933, which prompted FDR to make him chairman in the first place.

It is utterly impossible, as this country has demonstrated again and again, for the rich to save as much as they have been trying to save, and save anything that is worth saving. They can save idle factories and useless railroad coaches; they can save empty office buildings and closed banks; they can save paper evidences of foreign loans; but as a class they cannot save anything that is worth saving, above and beyond the amount that is made profitable by the increase of consumer buying.
It is for the interests of the well to do – to protect them from the results of their own folly – that we should take from them a sufficient amount of their surplus to enable consumers to consume and business to operate at a profit. This is not “soaking the rich”; it is saving the rich. Incidentally, it is the only way to assure them the serenity and security which they do not have at the present moment.
Everything would all be so much simpler if only more people understood this, that you need a – fleeting, ever-changing equilibrium- to prosper.

Instead, we’re falling into that same trap again. Or, more precisely, we already have. We have been fighting debt with more debt and built the facade put up by the Fed, the BoJ and the ECB, central banks that all face the same problems and all take the same approach: save the rich at the cost of the poor. Something Eccles said way back when could not possibly work.

Anyway, so here are the graphs that prove to us why the slump has legs. There’s been no deleveraging, the no. 1 requirement after a bubble bursts. There’s only been more leveraging, more debt has been issued, and while households have perhaps deleveraged a little bit, though that is likely strongly influenced by losses on homes etc. plus the fact that people were simply maxed out.

First, global debt and the opposite of deleveraging:


And global debt from a longer, 65 year, more historical perspective:


It’s a global debt graph, but it’s perhaps striking to note that big ‘growth’ spurts happened in the days when Reagan, Clinton and Obama were the respective US presidents. Not so much in the Bush era.

Next, China. What we’re looking at is what allowed the post 2008 global economic facade to have -fake- credibility, an insane rise in debt, largely spent on non-productive overinvestment, overcapacity highways to nowhere and many millions of empty apartments, in what could have been a cool story had not Beijing gone all-out on performance enhancing financial narcotics.


Today, the China Ponzi is on its last legs, and so is the global one, because China was the last ‘not-yet-conquered’ market large enough to provide the facade with -fleeting- credibility. Unless Elon Musk gets us to Mars very soon, there are no more such markets.

So US debt will have to come down too, belatedly, with China, and it will have to do that now. because there are no continents to conquer and hide the debt behind. We’re all going to regret engaging in the debt game, and not letting the bubble deflate in an orderly fashion when we still could, but all those thoughts are too late now.


What the facade has wrought is not just the idea that deleveraging was not needed (though it always is, after every single bubble), but that net US household worth rose by 55% in the 6-7 years since the bottom of the crisis, an artificial bottom fabricated with…more debt, with QE, and ZIRP.


Meanwhile, in today’s world, as stock markets go down at a rapid clip, China, having lost control of a market system it never had the control over that Politburos are ever willing to acknowledge they don’t have, plays a game of Ponzi whack-a-mole, with erratic ‘policies’ such as circuit breakers and CIA-style renditions of fund managers and the like.

And all the west can do is watch them fumble the ball, and another one, and another. And this whole thing is nowhere near the end.

China bad loans have now become a theme, but the theme doesn’t mean a thing without including the shadow banking system, which in China has been given the opportunity to grow like a tumor, on which Beijing’s grip is limited, and which has huge claims on local party officials forced by the Politburo to show overblown growth numbers. If you want to address bad loans, that’s where they are.

Chinese credit/debt graphs paint only a part of the picture if and when they don’t include shadow banks, but keeping their role hidden is one of Xi’s main goals, lest the people find out how bad things really are and start revolting. But they will anyway. That makes China a very unpredictable entity. And unpredictable means volatile, and that means even more money flowing out of, and being lost in, markets.

The ‘least worst’ place to be for what money will be left is US dollars, US treasuries and perhaps metals. But there’ll be a whole lot less left than just about anyone thinks. That’s the price of deleveraging.

The price of not deleveraging, on the other hand, is what we see in the markets today. And there is no cure. It must be done. The price for keeping up the facade rises sharply with each passing day, and the effort will in the end be futile. All bubbles have limited lifespans.

I’ll close this with a few recent words from Tim Morgan, who puts it so well I don’t feel the need to try and do it better.

The Ponzi Economy, Part 1

In order to set the Ponzi economy into some context, let’s put some figures on it. In the United States, total “real economy” debt (which excludes inter-bank borrowing) increased by $19.4 trillion – in real, inflation-adjusted terms – between 2000 and 2014, whilst real GDP expanded by only $3.7 trillion. Britain, meanwhile, added £1.9 trillion of new debt for less than £400bn on “growth” over the same period. I spent part of the holiday period unearthing quite how much debt countries added for each dollar of “growth” over a period starting at the end of 2000 and ending in mid-2015.
Unsurprisingly, the league is topped by Portugal ($5.65 for each $1 of growth), Ireland ($5.42) and Greece ($5.39). Britain’s ratio ($3.46) is somewhat flattering, in that the UK has used asset sales as well as borrowing to sustain its consumption. The average for the Eurozone ($3.54) covers ratios as diverse as Germany (just $1.87) and France ($4.22).
China’s $2.56 looks unexceptional until you note that the more recent (post-2007) number is much worse. Economies which seem to have been growing without too much borrowing (such as Brazil and Russia) are now experiencing dramatic worsening in their ratios, generally in the wake of tumbling commodity prices.
In the proverbial nutshell, then, the world has become addicted to borrowing money, spending it, and passing this off as “growth”. This is a copybook example of a pyramid scheme, which in turn means that the world’s most influential economic mentor is neither Keynes nor Hayek, but Charles Ponzi.
[..] How, in the absence of growth, can inflated capital values be sustained? The answer, of course, is that they can’t. Like all Ponzi schemes, this ends with a bang, not a whimper. This is why I find forecasts of a ‘big fall’ or ‘sharp correction’ in markets hard to swallow. Ponzi schemes don’t end gradually, any more than someone can fall off a cliff gradually, or be “slightly pregnant”.
The Ponzi economy simply continues for as long as irrationality prevails, and then implodes. Capital markets, though, are the symptom, not the cause. The fundamental problem is an inability to escape from an addictive practice of manufacturing supposed “growth” on the basis of borrowed money.
There may be shallow lulls in the asset markets, nothing ever only falls down in a straight line in the real world, but the debt will and must come down and be deleveraged.

The process will in all likelihood lead to warfare, and to refugee movements the likes of which the world has never seen just because of the sheer humbers of people added in the past 50 years.

When your children reach your age, they will not live in a world that you ever thought was possible. But they will still have to live in it, and deal with it. They will no longer have the facade you’ve been staring at for so long now, to lull them into a complacent sleep. And the Kardashians will no longer be looking so attractive either.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 20, 2016, 07:17:55 AM

The Market Stubbornly Refuses To Believe A Crash May Be Coming: Here's Why
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/19/2016 14:30 -0500

Bear Market Central Banks Cognitive Dissonance Credit Suisse EuroDollar Evercore Insurance Companies Investment Grade Investor Sentiment Market Manipulation Volatility

The fabric of the market is showing signs of fracturing, as 9 years of declining policy rates and 6 years of QEs failed to kick-off growth, while, as Fasanara Capital's Francesco Filia notes, further easing has a visibly decreasing marginal effectiveness. It is end-of-cycle-type policymaking and market responsiveness and while some markets and sentiment reflect the concerns of a tail-risk-like collapse, stocks remain dissonant in the medium-term to the ongoing rioting against monetary activism and market manipulation by global Central Banks.

As we detailed previously, demand for short-term crash protection increased last week to record highs...

The CS Fear Barometer (which measures 3M sentiment) fell to near a 1-year low of 26%, suggesting constructive medium-term investor sentiment...

And the volatility of VIX is entirely unphased...

So, CS Fear Barometer and vol-of-vol do not show signs of panic and suggest market participants are not protecting for a crash.

Furthemore, S&P 500's 12% drop from top is "simply not enough" given the cross asset collapse around the world, Evercore ISI technical analyst Rich Ross said in note to clients today.

Credit markets, however, have started to suggest some notable concerns growing. As Goldman shows, even Investment grade credit has started to collapse...

Flashing a big warning for stocks in the last week...

And despite the record skews, the cost of downside tail-risk protection in stocks is still notably lower than in credit...

Credit Suisse explains:

Our desk has seen only short-term hedging.
Particularly interesting, insurance companies are buying puts that knockout down 20%.
These puts are cheaper because they go away at the point you may want it most. It suggests insurance companies think the market has 5-10% downside but are not worried about a 20%-plus crash.
The market does not believe there is a systemic pullback/crash coming, so if you are bullish, that's a datapoint to hold onto.
However, if this kind of cognitive dissonance makes you wnat to hedge even more, we remind readers of the stealthy way in which some market particpants are betting on a collapse in stocks... it appears many market participants are piling into par Eurodollar calls:

[the chart shows the cumulative open interest in par calls on eurodollar futures contracts that expire in 2016 and 2017 - basically options on short-term interest rates with a strike price of zero, such that they pay out if the Fed takes rates negative]

When queried whether this is indeed a trade to bet on a market drop, Michael Green responded as follows:

[A reader] thought  this might be an attempt by hedge funds to hedge out their exposure to rising interest rates very cheaply.
My initial idea was that it actually could be a bet on negative rates (if for some reason the Fed had to come back into the picture with QE4).
The bottom line: "Deep OTM puts on the S&P are very expensive while par ED calls are relatively cheap.  In my view, we are that inflection point where the Fed is going to start to waffle…the bear market beckons and they will not be able to stick with their interest rate guidance. Of course, markets tend to frown on Central Bankers revealed as less than omniscient..."
So in short: stock market participants remain convinced that long-lasting 'significant' downside is impossible (despite short-term 'small-drop' hedging), because they expect The Fed to save the world once again. That's why sentiment is extreme but positioning is not and the equity market is simply far from prepared for further (or lower for longers) downside.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 20, 2016, 08:53:17 AM

How to emerge from a ‘death spiral’ in stocks

By Wallace Witkowski
Published: Jan 19, 2016 3:41 p.m. ET

‘High quality’ only real play for those wanting to stay in stocks
Can stocks pull out of their current dive?
As stocks give up their early session gains Tuesday and continue to race south, strategists are reminding investors that a big correction was overdue in the current bull market and that high quality is key for those who want to stay in equities.

The current correction is the kind of sharp one Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital, predicted back in late November in his 2016 forecast.

Belski said the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.05%  could drop as low as 1,800 before finding a bottom. The index is about 12% off its November high, and about 13% off its 52-week high from May. Much of the current selloff hit in January with the index off nearly 9% for the month.

“While the velocity and timing of the pullback is a surprise, the weakness is following normal market correction protocol,” Belski said in a Tuesday note. “Namely, most corrections traditionally occur when you least expect them. Remember, the market does not like change.”

Investors are coping with the December Fed rate hike and the timetable of future hikes, a slump in commodities, geopolitical uncertainty and the coming U.S. election.

However, Belski believes there is a bigger dynamic at work in stocks: The final unwinding of the current cycle that powered this leg of a much larger secular—or long term—bull market. That cycle included high growth in China and emerging markets, strong commodity prices, cheap credit, and a rush into low-quality stocks, he said.

In looking at an average of the last two long-term bull markets since the end of World War II, Belski found that a big correction was likely overdue.

Better late than never?
Investor focus needs to turn away from strategies that were based on central-bank easing and momentum, and back to fundamentals, Belski said, recommending overweight positions in large-cap financial, technology, and consumer-discretionary stocks.

But those fundamentals may be hard to come by as current earnings are already looking at a possible fourth straight quarterly decline.

Fundamentals are falling to their worst levels in years, according to Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in her Tuesday note entitled “What to own in an equity death spiral.”

What Subramanian is concerned about are two growing fundamental weaknesses: That more companies are beating earnings-per-share estimates and missing on revenue than they have since early 2009, and that the gap between reported and adjusted earnings is at its widest since 2008.

But while stocks are very much in correction territory, Subramanian said even growth stocks are underperforming, which is usually not the case ahead of a recession
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 20, 2016, 08:54:59 AM

Opinion: Doing nothing may be a sure bet as the stock market seesaws

By Chuck Jaffe
Published: Jan 19, 2016 1:08 p.m. ET

Investors plan to ‘get active’ on expectations of higher volatility
Venture Beat
If the stock market’s early-January action has you contemplating moves to make this year, consider whether increasing your activity is really doing the right thing by your long-term investment strategy.
No matter what the market does this year, investors are ready to be more active in it.

The question is whether that will help them get better results.

According to a survey released last week by the AMG Funds, more than 90% of affluent mutual fund investors plan to maintain or increase their allocations to active funds in 2016, in spite of — or perhaps because of — the sustained to increasing volatility they see over the next 12 months.

While the popular story in the media during the market’s rally from the financial crisis is that active management doesn’t work — and fund flows have shown investors loading up on index funds — the market’s volatility and concerns about a possible downturn make 2016 the kind of time when active management typically does what investors hope for when they take the chance.

When investors “get active,” it can mean a lot of things. While all of those actions are done with good intentions, the results aren’t always a plus.

investors faced with the choice of an investment mirroring the market — staying passive — or going with something ‘designed to reduce volatility and limit downside risk,’ 55% of respondents took the active option.
If the market’s early-January action has you contemplating moves to make this year, consider whether increasing your activity is really doing the right thing by your long-term investment strategy.

Active investing typically involves hiring a manager to make the investment decisions based on their insights, methodology and investment styles. Passive investing uses index funds, and forgoes trying to “beat the market” in favor of achieving the market’s results over time.

The problem with passive investing, for many investors, is that index funds ride the market rollercoaster, which can get nauseating when declines are fast and steep. A fund manager, typically, is expected to inject some downside protection, so that while their fund may not beat the market in good times, it avoids some of the pain in bad times.

Read: The U.S. stock market’s fate hangs on this critical number

With the market historically rising two-thirds of the time — and with active managers saddled with a higher expense ratio than the typical index funds — a majority of active fund managers lag behind their index benchmark over time, which has led to the generalization that passive management is superior.

The problem is that many index investors are active, just not at the fund level.

Using a money manager, financial adviser or their own instincts, they actively manage their passive investments, tilting the portfolio toward, say, large-cap growth stocks when the market is rising but perhaps moving away from stocks in times when the market gets scary.

China's growth is slowest in 25 years(1:32)
Making moves in the name of “tactical asset allocation” — changing index allocations or swapping one index fund for another — is active investing, and can have the same performance-reducing effects as investing in active funds to begin with.

This kind of “actively passive” investing is countered by people who buy and hold active funds, where they don’t chase performance and let managers do their work, so that they passively manage their active funds.

Also read: Here’s how share buybacks can come back to bite shareholders

Ultimately, investors come up with a lot of ways to explain their moves without ever having to fess up to market timing or giving into their fear or greed. They buy on dips or protect their profits against downturns, and thus become tactical; in the face of the market’s recent moves, they’re considering adding to the parts of the market that have gone on sale — like China or oil companies — or they’re steering clear of more pain.

The AMG study results showed that investors faced with the choice of an investment mirroring the market — staying passive — or going with something “designed to reduce volatility and limit downside risk,” 55% of respondents took the active option.

Sadly, there is no guarantee that the active moves an investor makes will actually reduce volatility or limit downside risk; only time will tell if they get what they want.

“The worry I have when I look at the results is if you are nervous about the market — and 95% expect moderate to high volatility this year and they say that high volatility makes them very uncomfortable — what happens by investor behavior is that people tend to withdraw with no sense of when to come back,” said Bill Finnegan, chief marketing officer for the AMG Funds. “You need a strategy as to how you will manage this, whether it is buy-and-hold or some investment policy … active or passive, because otherwise all you are doing is mixing strategies and making moves that feel right in the moment but that work against the long-term tactics that you know you should be following.”

Before getting active in 2016, look first at whether your portfolio needs to be changed.

Could it benefit from rebalancing — where the weight of each holding is put back onto your original plans — or from a new plan?

Whatever you decide, experts suggest making any moves with a plan, rather than simply reacting to the market’s news and volatility.

“You have to avoid chasing the dot; don’t do something for the sake of making a change,” said Jeffrey DeMaso, director of research at Adviser Investments. “You need to be more concerned with reaching your goals than with beating the market all the time. Sticking with what has worked for you is usually better than changing strategies just because the market’s getting scary.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 20, 2016, 02:15:35 PM

Cramer: Charts showing a huge S&P correction could be coming
Abigail Stevenson   | @A_StevensonCNBC
6 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

After the vicious sell-off last week, Jim Cramer wanted to know how much more pain the S&P 500 has to endure before it finally bottoms. And what he discovered could be significant.

To answer this important question, he enlisted the help of Carolyn Boroden, a technician who runs and a colleague of Cramer's at

The reason Cramer turned to Boroden is she previously nailed calling the peak of the S&P. When Cramer last checked in with her in June, she said it was time to get cautious about the S&P. In June, she thought the rally for the S&P would peak around 2,138. Sure enough, it peaked at 2,134.

Boroden utilizes a mathematical methodology based on the medieval mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci. He discovered that a key series of ratios tend to repeat themselves over and over again in nature.

These ratios can also appear at key levels in the stock market. Boroden looks at past swings of a stock or index and then utilizes the Fibonacci ratios to find potentially important levels that could change a trajectory.

Given the recent volatility, Boroden believes that this market is vulnerable to the downside. Looking at the S&P 500's weekly chart, she did not like what she saw.

The one spark of hope that Boroden found were two key levels. First was a floor of support between 1,847 and 1,857, which is down 2 percent from current levels. She found a second floor running to 1,832 from 1,838, down about 3 percent.

Boroden noticed the Fibonacci timing cycles suggest that this could trigger a healthy bounce, and it could happen sometime this week.

However, if the S&P 500 breaks down below the floor of support in the 1,830s, then Boroden believes a brutal sell-off could happen. It could even be similar to the magnitude of what happened in the financial crisis.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Cramer Remix: This group is as bad as oil
Cramer: Don't bother buying. It's capital preservation time
Cramer's game plan: Cash is king next week

Projecting the levels from the peak in May 2015, Boroden thinks that the S&P could get hammered down to 1,350, or even as far as 1,225.

"In other words, if we don't hold above the current floor of support, Boroden is not ruling out a massive correction that could take us 28 percent or even 35 percent lower," Cramer said.

Boroden did not say that this will definitely happen, but she does think the potential risk could be enormous. That is why she recommended that if there is a near-term bounce, investors should use the strength to ring the register and raise cash to be prepared for a longer and deeper decline.

"I personally don't believe that this kind of a decline is in the cards, but you need to be aware that right now the charts are saying some very ugly things, and I think it accentuated the caution I've been trying to demonstrate," Cramer said.

Cramer doesn't want to be the bearer of bad news, but he thinks it is important for investors to be aware that the technician that nailed the market peak has found that the S&P's floor of support is in the 1,830s, and it could be a significant level to keep on the radar
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 05:48:52 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 05:56:28 AM



Bounced fr
Intra day low of
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 06:01:09 AM

Bounced fr
Intra day low of

Lowest 1812.22
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 07:09:38 AM

道指瀉565點收市縮至249點 多位名宿嗌冷靜
01月21日(四) 05:01   




技術上,Bespoke Investment Group分析員稱,標指1,862點是「伊波拉低位(Ebola Low)」,今日收報1,859點,反映長達16個月的平穩上升軌遭破壞,並宣布跌穿2014年10月15日大冧市低位,技術上失守了極重大支持,投資者需密切注意該關口會否正式確認跌穿。

現時是否別人恐慌我貪婪時刻?大鱷或許回答是!據外國傳媒報道,億萬富豪、人稱「華爾街超級馬利奧」的Mario Gabelli表示,股市大跌是好事,投資者是時候篩選投資組合,好好選擇優質企業,現時是極佳時機。

投資年資已逾60年、現年86歲、有「基金之神」之稱的領航基金(Vanguard Group)創始人Jack Bogle表示,投資者之所以瘋狂拋售,只是因為市場兵荒馬亂,呼籲現階段想沽貨的投資者冷靜。他說:「請安然坐下,甚麼也不要做,保持原狀。這只是投機者給你的恐慌,不要給他們回應,不用理會他們的行動。」






Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 07:21:11 AM

Investors are better off flipping a coin than following Wall Street pros, data shows

By Shawn Langlois
Published: Jan 20, 2016 4:05 p.m. ET

MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, Shutterstock
Hey, don’t let a few market hiccups to start the year *** you out too much. Strategists predict gains by the end of the year! Just like they did last year. And the year before that. And the year before that, all the way back to 1998, according to one Georgetown professor who crunched the numbers during that time frame to come to this conclusion: The Wall Street pros are “full of bull.”

Salil Mehta, in a deep dive for the Statistical Ideas blog, examined 186 public forecasts, which he culled from 19 years of media coverage. For starters, the strategists have called for a positive year more than 95% of the time, while the market has only been up 73% of the time.

In this table, the 10 calls associated with 2016 and 32 associated with flat years were removed.
“In some random circumstances, a predicting firm may be just OK,” he said. “But many of the times the firms’ prediction results over the past 18 years are generally slightly worse than if had you flipped a coin about your own fixed guess as to where markets are headed.”

In the 18 years of predictions, Mehta found that the average annual forecast has been for a gain of 9% a year, while the actual returns over that period have been half that. What’s more, the most optimistic of all the forecasts was nearly 7% more bullish than the best market year of 25%, while the most bearish forecast (-22%) was 26% more optimistic than the worst market year.

“The market provides random noise in all of these, and it’s foolish to act as if one can generally see into the future,” warned Mehta, who for years worked as a research analyst on Wall Street.

At the start of this year, 10 market strategists called for a higher finish, with an average projection of 8%, Mehta pointed out. Federated Investors’s Stephen Auth and his S&P SPX, -1.17%   call for 2,500 was by far the most bullish. Of course, a lot has happened since that initial roundup and targets are being slashed. Auth, for instance, cut his back to 2,150 on the S&P.

That still feels like a long way away considering what we’re seeing this week.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 07:23:22 AM

Opinion: The bear market in stocks has finally arrived

By Michael Sincere
Published: Jan 20, 2016 4:27 p.m. ET

Veteran investor Mark D. Cook gives three options for protecting your money
ABC News
Mark D. Cook: ‘Every rally in a bear market has no traction. In a bull market, rallies will hold for days or weeks. Now we’re getting sharp “one-day wonders” that fail. Every hope is dashed. That is a strong characteristic of a bear market.’
Investors have noticed that the stock market has gone through a radical change in the past few months.

Veteran investor Mark D. Cook, who pointed out red flags a year ago, feels vindicated. Finally, stock prices confirmed what he saw in 2014: We’re in a bear market and about to go over the cliff, he says. Here is a chat I had with Cook over the weekend.

Why do you still believe we’re in a bear market?

First, the oil and gas situation is a huge problem, and it will continue. We’re not getting bounces. Instead, oil investors just want to sell. The second problem, and it’s just getting started, is China. China is like an athlete that twisted his ankle and needs time to heal. If the ankle doesn’t heal, it will get worse, and that’s what is happening right now.

Is there anything technical that you are looking at?

Yes. First, every rally in a bear market has no traction. In a bull market, rallies will hold for days or weeks. Now we’re getting sharp “one-day wonders” that fail. Every hope is dashed. That is a strong characteristic of a bear market. Second, the NYSE Tick is registering no institutional activity on the buy side. Every rally is a chance for mutual funds to lighten positions. And this is only January. Wait until people look at their January statements. Many will be shocked.

If this is a bear market, how will investors react in the months ahead?

There are four psychological stages that people go through during a bear market. Right now, investors know the market is struggling but most believe it will come back. In fact, many see this as a buying opportunity. Here are the four stages:

Stage 1: Denial

Right now, we’re in the denial stage. Anyone who is bullish is too stubborn to change his or her view. Many people have their head in the sand, and some may not even look at their January statements. Many believe the market will come back. Right now, many are still buying the dips, which does not work in a bear market. This is similar to what has happened to oil.

Stage 2: High Anxiety

In this stage, many investors are like a deer in the headlights. They are frozen and nervous but don’t do anything. They are told by brokers and financial experts to stay calm and don’t panic. We haven’t reached this stage yet.

Stage 3: Fear

In this stage, the rampant bulls finally realize they are in trouble. If they have bought stocks on margin, they might be getting calls from their broker to add money to losing positions. In this stage, they are watching in fear as their portfolio burns. They reluctantly start to take action as fear increases. Often they say to themselves, “When my stock gets back to even, I will sell.”

Stage 4: Panic

This is what I call the “uncle” stage. This is when panicked investors throw in the towel and take action. They want to get out of the market while they still have something left. At this stage, there is huge downside volume and double-digit declines on the indexes. At the end of Stage 4, many people vow to never buy stocks again. We are not even close to this stage yet. Typically, we hit bottom when investors capitulate after losses of 20% to 50% in their stock portfolios
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 07:26:25 AM

Here’s a reason to ignore this plunging market — it knows nothing

By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Jan 20, 2016 10:51 a.m. ET

Critical information ahead of the U.S. market’s open
Editors note: A previous version of this article had the wrong chart in Chart of the Day. That chart has been fixed.

How to ignore a market that’s showing all the hallmarks of getting butchered on Wednesday? Not so easy.

Futures point to a cratering for Wall Street at the open as oil gets pounded again, Middle East markets crumble and the dollar careens below ¥117. Asia had a disastrous session as the Nikkei fell into bear-market territory, and the FTSE 100 looks to be headed there soon. Some say the U.S. bear market is already here.

These are “worrying times for investors, as the market shows signs of pure panic and is being dominated by fear as each day brings its new set of challenges,” says James Hughes, chief market analyst at GKFX. The herd leading the herd.

That brings us to our call of the day. Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks says sure, this market is in a panic — but what does it really know anyway? Read on for what he has to say about the dangers of investors putting too much trust in their screens, and not enough in their own common sense.

Gloomy markets seem to match the mood perfectly in snowy, beautiful Davos, Switzerland. All around the lookout towers, the cream of the global business crop are in an apparent race to see who can best wax lyrical about economic gloom. Check out our stat of the day to see just how downbeat CEOs are.

“The situation is worse than it was in 2007,” William White, chairman of the OECD’s review committee and former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), told The Telegraph. That toxic addition to debt gets an airing as well, as White says the Fed is in a “horrible quandary.”

“Things are so bad that there is no right answer. If they raise rates it’ll be nasty. If they don’t raise rates, it just makes matters worse,” he said.

On with the show.

Key market gauges
Futures for the Dow industrials YMH6, +0.10% and the S&P 500 ESH6, +0.11%  suggest Wall Street is set for a selloff after a brutal day for Asia stocks. The Shanghai Composite COMP, -0.12% fell just 1%, but Hong Kong stocks hit sub-19,000 for the first time since July 201 and the Nikkei NIK, -3.71%  entered bear-market territory, sinking 3.7%. This action has sent investors flocking back to the yen, which busted to a five-month high against the dollar and is crushing a bunch of other currencies. All this as U.S. crude CLH6, +0.25%  dropped below $28 a barrel for the February contract. Brent LCOH6, -3.37%  is nearing sub-$28 again.

Against that backdrop, Europe SXXP, -3.20%  is headed toward the lowest close in a year. And no one is exactly flocking to gold GCG6, -0.44%

The call of the day
Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital, was featured last Friday in this column, with a bullish call to buy while everyone else goes screaming for the exits. He just pushed out another note to clients, and he shows no signs of backing down from that position.

In the note sent out Tuesday, Marks is talking about how much importance should be placed on the current market rout.

“Does the market reflect what people know, or should people base their actions on what the market knows?” asks the investment manager. And his answer is that “if people follow the market’s dictates, they’re taking advice from...themselves!”

Marks stresses that he’s not saying the market is never right when prices go up or down, but “there’s no reason to presume it’s right.”

“Future price movements can only be predicted on the basis of the relationship between price and fundamentals. And, given the market’s short-term volatility and irrationability, this can only be done in the long-term sense. The market has nothing useful to contribute on this subject,” he writes.

Read his full thoughts on the subject here.

The economy
Consumer prices fell again in December are coming at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, while housing starts dropped in the final month of 2015.

The stat
27% — That’s the percentage of CEOs polled at Davos who are confident the global economy will pick up over the next twelve months. The survey comes from PwC’s 19th Annual Global CEO survey.

The buzz
In a market that was already down, banking giant Goldman Sachs GS, -1.96%  said its quarterly profit tumbled due to a $5 billion penalty over mortgage-bond sales in the financial crisis. Shares are off nearly 2%.

AMD AMD, -7.69% is down 7% after the chip maker’s forecast revenue range for the first quarter largely fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

Netflix NFLX, -0.14%  is up 3% after the streaming giant blew away projections. The monthly price of Neftlix for some members is also going up around $2 for existing subscribers. See a Live Blog recap of Netflix earnings

Royal Dutch Shell RDS.A, -4.21%  is cutting 10,000 jobs in a cost-cutting drive as oil prices slump and as the oil producer eyes a drop in profit of as much as 50%.

A skim of iOS code has revealed that Apple AAPL, +0.08%  could be experimenting with light-based wireless data referred to as Li-Fi, being viewed as a long-term and much faster replacement for Wi-Fi, says blogger Apple Insider. “Unlike your television remote, Li-Fi uses visible light and the modulation happens in a manner imperceptible to the human eye: that means the same bulb that lights your hallway can act as a data access point,” says Sam Oliver, writing for Apple Insider.

Tesla Motors TSLA, -2.94% has filed a federal lawsuit against a German auto parts maker over the latter’s role in designing the “falcon wing” doors on its Model X electric sport-utility vehicle.

Yahoo YHOO, -3.23%  boss Marissa Mayer can’t stem the panic inside the struggling search giant that up to 25% of workers could get the pink slip.

Months after losing his son Beau to brain cancer, Vice President Joe Biden tells the World Economic Forum in Davos that technological and scientific efforts must double up to find a cure for cancer in five years instead to 10 and “eventually end cancer as we know it.”

The quote
Getty Images
Leonardo DiCaprio in Davos Tuesday.
“We simply cannot afford to allow the corporate greed of the coal, oil and gas industries to determine the future of humanity. Those entities with a financial interest in preserving this destructive system have denied and even covered up the evidence of our changing climate.” — Actor Leonardo DiCaprio ripping into Big Oil at the World Economic Forum in Davos Tuesday night. That was after accepting an award for his work on environmental projects.

The chart
When John Q. Public is panicking, is it time to look the other way? Chart-focused blog Daily Shot plugged “sell stocks” into Google Trends, which measures the popularity of specific search terms. This is what it threw up, looking at the period from 2008 to the present.

“The frequency is at the highest level since 2008, as the public wants to know if they should be dumping their portfolios. Scared? Don’t be. When the public is trying to find out if they should be selling their shares from a Google search, it tells us that it’s time to take a contrarian view,” said the newsletter.

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 21, 2016, 05:37:58 PM

Traders seem certain Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates again this year

By Greg Robb
Published: Jan 20, 2016 4:10 p.m. ET

Some economists think market ignoring firmer core CPI
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen may be eyeing just one rate hike this year.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Turmoil in the stock market, falling oil prices and an uncertain outlook for the U.S. and global economy has convinced traders that Federal Reserve won’t be able to deliver on its planned four rate hikes this year.

In fact, trading on fed futures contracts now suggests the market barely expects the Fed to hike only once this year after lift rates for the first time in almost ten years in December.

But some economists think the market is ignoring fresh data released Wednesday by the Labor Department, which shows that core inflation, minus volatile food and energy prices, is grinding higher.

While weak on the surface due to falling costs for food and gasoline, the December CPI report showed that core consumer prices accelerated to a 2.1% rate over the past year, the strongest annual rate since July 2012.

Read more: Inflation falls again in December, CPI finds

The year-over-year increase in core CPI has been rising for seven straight months.

Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics, said the rise in core CPI likely “hardens the Fed’s resolve” to stick with its four-rate hike path.
“The Fed cannot control markets and now it has core prices in the 2% range for the CPI and still strong job growth. These are metrics to cause some [at the Fed] to stay the course,” he said.

Ham Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research, said investors should take market views on the future path of rates with a “grain of salt” because they may say more about the state of the stock market than the U.S. central bank.

Last September, Bandholz noted, traders in fed futures contracts delayed their expectations of the first Fed rate hike when the U.S. stock market swooned, only to reverse course and pencil in a December rate hike when financial markets recovered.

With the stock market turmoil, the data suggests “a strong labor market and inflation grinding higher,” he said.

Pause next week
There is broad consensus among economists that the Fed will stand pat at its policy meeting next week.

All eyes will be on the statement issued next Wednesday to see if it contains any hints about March.

Bandholz thinks the Fed will be leery of making major changes. Instead the U.S. central bank will repeat that it “reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2% target.”

Any word changes would take a March rate hike off the table even thought the meeting is 2 months away, he noted.

Not all economists are worried about the rise in core CPI.

Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp., said there is less inflationary pressure in the economy than implied by core CPI inflation. He said rents account for almost half of core CPI and has been driving it higher.

Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, said whether there is a pickup in inflation “is likely to be the single most important issue that determines the pace of Fed rate hikes in 2016.”

Stanley said he expects there will be “a noticeable pickup in inflation this year” while the market mostly looks for little or no increase.

At the moment, the data are supportive of the market’s view, “but it is a long year and it is just getting started,” he said
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 22, 2016, 05:44:47 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 22, 2016, 07:16:03 AM

Opinion: Dow could fall 5,000 points and still not be ‘cheap’

By Brett Arends
Published: Jan 21, 2016 9:56 a.m. ET

So says a certain stock-valuation analysis

Hard to believe, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA, +0.63%  could fall by another 1,000 to 5,000 points and still not be “cheap” compared with long-term stock-valuation measures.

That’s the stark conclusion from an analysis comparing current stock prices to underlying measures such as per-share revenue, earnings and corporate net worth.

And it suggests that even if we are now overdue for a short-term bounce or rally of some kind, buying heavily into the latest sell-off isn’t the kind of one-way bet that value investors crave.

Stocks are certainly much cheaper than they were a few weeks ago. After the worst start to a new year in Wall Street history, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 10% since Jan. 1. Small-company stocks are now deep in a bear market after falling more than 20% from last spring’s highs.

But cheaper doesn’t necessarily mean cheap.

Even after the sell-off, U.S. stocks are valued at around 1.4 times annual per-share revenue. FactSet says the average since 2001, when it began tracking the data, is 1.3 times revenue. So the Dow could fall another 7%, or over 1,000 points, and still be no lower than its modern-day average.

And the picture looks even worse when you also add in those companies’ soaring debts. According to the Federal Reserve, nonfinancial corporations have increased their total debts since 2007 from $6.3 trillion to over $8 trillion. As FactSet says, total shares plus total debts — the so-called “enterprise value” — of U.S. public companies are now 2.4 times annual per-share revenue, compared with an average of 2.1 times since 2001.

Data from the U.S. Federal Reserve, meanwhile, say U.S. nonfinancial corporate stocks are now valued at about 90% of the replacement cost of company assets, a metric known as “Tobin’s Q.” But the historic average, going back a century, is in the region of 60% of replacement costs. By this measure, stocks could fall by another third, taking the Dow all the way down toward 10,000. (On Wednesday it closed at 15,767.) Similar calculations could be reached by comparing share prices to average per-share earnings, a measure known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, after Yale finance professor Robert Shiller, who made it famous.

Even when you compare stocks to the earnings of the past 12 months, it’s hard to say they are in any kind of bargain territory.

At best, depending on how you measure things, you could say they’re no longer wildly expensive.

None of this means the current slump must get worse anytime soon. The only short-term cause of a market selloff is the same: more sellers than buyers. At some point more buyers appear, while some sellers pause for breath. Wednesday afternoon’s turnaround, which saw the Dow erase half of an early 500-point slump, is at least a hopeful sign.

But it certainly casts a cloud over any bargain hunting. And note that these numbers only measure how far the market would have to fall to reach average levels. They do not reflect what would happen if the market did what it has done frequently in the past, and plunged back down to very cheap levels. Maybe that will never happen. Let’s hope. Because when you factor in those numbers, it’s a long way down.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 22, 2016, 07:18:08 AM

Fund flows are sending a bearish signal to international equities

By Ciara Linnane
Published: Jan 21, 2016 2:12 p.m. ET

Investors have yanked billions of dollars from U.S. equity funds this year--but seem complacent about international funds
Getty Images
Investors aren’t that bearish on international equities after declines
A surprising move in non-U.S. fund flows in the first two weeks of the year is a bearish signal for international equities, according to fund tracker TrimTabs Investment Research.

Global equity mutual funds, which exclude U.S. equity funds, posted an inflow of $1.2 billion in January through Tuesday, according to TrimTabs. At the same time, global equity exchange-traded funds saw redemptions of $3.3 billion. That combines to create a net outflow of just $2.1 billion, a surprisingly small number given the heavy selling and losses posted across the world’s stock markets.

Don’t miss: Does the Great Reset of 2016 mean it’s time to buy?

“It’s amazing how hard investors are holding on to these poorly performing international funds,” David Santschi, chief executive officer, TrimTabs
Global equity mutual funds fell 9.1% in the period, while global equity ETFs shed almost 10%, according to TrimTabs data.

“It’s amazing how hard investors are holding on to these poorly performing international funds,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer at TrimTabs. “Perhaps they’re betting that global central bankers will ride to the rescue again, which is what they’ve been conditioned to expect over the past seven years.”

Read: Traders seem certain Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates again this year

U.S. equity funds fared worse than global funds. U.S. equity mutual funds are down 10.4% in January through Tuesday, while U.S. equity ETFs have lost 11%. But investors have reacted by withdrawing far more money from them than from non-U.S. funds. TrimTabs estimates that investors have pulled $30.9 billion from U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs in the period.

“Flows of global equity funds certainly aren’t indicative of panic, and they’re also not reflective of the worst ever start to the year for global equity markets,” said Santschi. “How deep do losses have to get before fund investors start bailing?”

To recap, Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, -2.43%   has fallen almost 16% in the year so far, and is more than 20% off its most recent high, meaning it has officially entered bear market territory. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -3.23%  has tumbled almost 19% this year. The Hang Seng HSI, -1.82%  is down 15.4%.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 UKX, +1.77%   has lost 9% and entered bear market territory on Wednesday. The German DAX DAX, +1.94%  is down 11%, the Italian FTSE MIB FTSEMIB, +4.20%  is down almost 13% and Spain’s IBEX i IBEX, +1.97%  is down 18%.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.74%   has shed more than 8% of its value, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.52%  is down 7.9%, the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.01%   is down about 10% and the Russell 2000 RUT, -0.20%  is down 11.2%.

Read: 7 key charts to watch as the stock market nosedives

More from MarketWatch
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Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 22, 2016, 07:19:29 AM

ReTuRN OF THe BeaR...
Posted by: williambanzai7
Post date: 01/20/2016 - 12:10
What goes up...
Invest In Gold Now As Stock Market To Crash – Faber
Posted by: GoldCore
Post date: 01/21/2016 - 04:47
Faber warns that the S&P 500, which fell to 1,881 on the 19th of January, could drop to its 2011 low below 1,200.

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"Investors Should Sell Any Bounce Back" Top Investors See More To Come
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/21/2016 15:10 -0500

Bank Run Bill Gross Bond China Gundlach High Yield Janus Capital Morgan Stanley Ray Dalio Reality

Investment managers are warning that markets probably have further to fall as China’s growth slows, oil prices plunge and central bankers lack tools to prop up economies. As Bloomberg reports, from the largest asset manager in the world to the most niche investment expert, many of the best known 'gurus' are warning there is more to come just as Morgan Stanley's James Gorman warned this morning "the size of the correction suggests it's not temporary," adding that "it might be too soon to step back into the market."

"I expect a protracted decline in the S&P 500," Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder of DoubleLine Capital, said in an e-mailed response to questions. "Investors should sell the bounce-back rally which could come at any time."
“Excessive risk exposure is adding to the selling pressure,” Gundlach said.

"You need to have some stabilization of fundamentals to give people conviction this has gone too far," Koesterich, whose firm is the world’s largest money manager, said in an interview. "Certainly you are getting closer to capitulation. The magnitude of the drop suggests that."
Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said global markets face risks to the downside as economies near the end of a long-term debt cycle.

“When you hit zero, you can’t lower interest rates anymore,” Dalio said, according to a transcript of the interview. “That end of the long-term debt cycle is the issue that means that the risks are asymmetric on the downside because risks are comparatively high at the same time there’s not an ability to ease.”
The rout in global stocks is being fueled by investors seeking to reduce leverage as central bank run out of options to prop up economies, according to Janus Capital Group Inc.’s Bill Gross.
“Real economies are being levered with QEs and negative interest rates to little effect,” Gross, who manages the $1.3 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, said in an e-mail responding to questions from Bloomberg. “Markets sense this lack of growth potential and observe recessions beginning in major emerging-market economies.”
Credit folks are fretting too...

"The negative sentiment in the market has turned into a full-blown high yield selloff and more credits are going to run into trouble." said Kapil Singh, a money manager at DoubleLine. "High yield buyers are becoming choosier and choosier."
"A lot of funds limped into the new year hoping for a market rally but that just hasn’t happened," Mark Heron, head of distressed debt at hedge fund Ellington Management, said.
"You get the sense that there is a broader market issue," Heron said.
Complacency about the risks of contagion from the weakest segments of high yield is reminiscent of sentiment regarding subprime debt in mid-2007, Heron’s firm wrote in a November report.
And that means all those wonder M&A deals (and the premia they pumped into stocks) won't be there...

"I suspect there are a lot of deals that were teed up, ready to come to the market, that will just have to stay on the shelf for the foreseeable future," said money manager Margie Patel, at Wells Capital Management in Boston, which manages about $350 billion. "The pipeline is going to dramatically shrink."
And nor will the other pillar of support for stocks -  buybacks..

Simply put, the riskiest parts of corporate debt markets are inching closer to panic mode... and stocks are slowly waking to that reality (as the 'knowledge' leaks from professionals to the rest of the market).

But some remain hopeful - "This is a financial crisis and not an economic crisis," Aguilar said during a conference call. "The U.S. economy is stable."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 22, 2016, 06:06:19 PM

道指收漲115點 雙「鱷王」齊高唱災難未完
01月22日(五) 05:00


【on.cc東網專訊】 美股昨日大驚嚇後,今日在歐央行暗示可能在3月加額放水,加上油價大反彈之下,3大指數做好。不過,「鱷王」索羅斯公開表示已沽空美股,更揚言中國會「硬着陸」,拖累大市尾段升幅收窄。
油價大反彈,油股埃克森美孚收市升1.26%;雪佛龍收市亦升2.62%;國際商業機器(IBM)昨日大跌近半成後,今日僅微彈0.86%。金融股高盛則逆市跌1.37%。技術上,標指暫時守穩1,862點「伊波拉低位(Ebola Low)」,反映後市暫未太悲。
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 23, 2016, 05:42:05 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 23, 2016, 08:36:01 AM

Opinion: Investors are still too bullish despite the stock market correction

By Mark Hulbert
Published: Jan 22, 2016 5:24 a.m. ET

The proof: They cheered Wednesday’s late-day rally even though equities tanked

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The stock market’s plunge won’t come to an end until pessimism and despair become a lot more widespread.

And that could be a while, since the stock market timer community has been exhibiting a stubborn refusal to throw in the towel.

We saw this behavior in spades Wednesday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average by the middle of the trading session had fallen by more than 500 points — only to recover and close down “only” 250 points. Rather than bemoan the loss for the session, many were quick to celebrate that late-day recovery, and some even declared that Wednesday was a so-called short-term reversal day, which would be positive from a technical perspective.

Read: Apple earnings optimism may be ‘detached from reality’

Such eagerness to believe any rally attempt as the real thing is characteristic of bear markets, according to contrarian analysis. As contrarians are fond of saying, bear markets like to descend a slope of hope, just as bull markets like to climb a wall of worry. From this contrarian perspective, therefore, a more sustainable bottom will come when there is no such eagerness.

UBS’s Axel Weber expects four U.S. rate increases in 2016(1:06)
Consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term Nasdaq-oriented stock market timers monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HNNSI). Since the Nasdaq responds especially quickly to changes in investor mood, and because those timers are themselves quick to shift their recommended exposure levels, the HNNSI is the Hulbert Financial Digest’s most sensitive barometer of investor sentiment.

The HNNSI through Wednesday of this week never fell below minus 37.5%. While this is low in absolute terms, it is not in relative terms: As you can see from the chart at the top of this column, this was well above the minus 50% level to which it fell during the market’s correction last summer.

To be sure, on Thursday, the HNNSI did drop down to minus 50%. But, given the market timers’ prior eagerness to jump on the bullish bandwagon, contrarians won’t entertain the notion of a tradeable bottom until the HNNSI stays at least that low for several days in a row.

An especially bullish development, from a contrarian perspective, would be for the market timing community to remain as bearish as it is now in the face of the market’s initial rally attempt. That would suggest that, finally, the market’s plunge over the past several weeks has led to a robust wall of worry that the market can climb.

Also read: What’s wrong about Cramer’s latest advice

By the way, the HNNSI is not the only sentiment measure that leads to a contrarian-based caution about the market’s rally attempts. During the market’s recent plunge, for example, the CBOE’s Volatility Index VIX, -16.30% never closed higher than $27.59, in contrast to spiking to over $40 in August
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 23, 2016, 08:40:08 AM

U.S. stocks post first weekly gain of 2016

By Joseph Adinolfi and Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Jan 22, 2016 4:24 p.m. ET

Nasdaq soars, bolstered by rebound in tech shares
Oil drove gains in global stocks.
U.S. stocks posted their first weekly gain of the new year Friday as oil futures rebounded for a second day and hints of potential central-bank stimulus in Europe and Japan helped comfort nervous investors.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed the other main U.S. indexes, recording a weekly gain of 2.3%, as some of its largest constituents, including Apple AAPL, +0.37% Facebook F, +1.08% and Alphabet Inc. GOOG, +2.64% rose sharply in a relief rally.

The Nasdaq NDAQ, +3.50% closed 119.12 points, or 2.7%, higher at 4,574.93.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.33% finished 210.83 points, or 1.3%, higher at 16,093.51, posting a 0.7% weekly gain. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 SPX, +2.03% jumped 37.91 points, or 2%, to finish at 1,906.90—up 1.4% on the week. Industrial shares and financial shares were the only two of the S&P’s 10 sectors to not finish in the green.

For all three indexes, it was the first weekly gain in four weeks.

Gains were largely driven by rising oil prices, as both West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. crude-oil benchmark CLH6, +9.21% and Brent crude LCOH6, +9.68% the international benchmark, soared to their highest levels in nearly two weeks after a report North American oil-drilling rigs showed that the number of active rigs decreased slightly. Oil futures earlier this week dropped below $27 a barrel for the first time since 2003.

Hints about a further loosening of monetary policy from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week also encouraged market bulls.

“There’s a general whisper out there that there’s going to be coordinated central-bank action,” said Oliver Pursche, CEO of Bruderman Brothers. “That’s led to a certain amount of short-covering.”

“Oil prices being up 6%—that’s a big driver. The correlation [between stocks and oil] has certainly been high lately,” Pursche added.

Global stocks also benefited from the easing rumors and the recovery in oil. European stocks SXXP, +3.00%  booked their best daily gain in a month, while Asian markets finished with solid gains, including a nearly 6% rise for the Nikkei 225 index NIK, +5.88%

Stocks’ turnaround over the past two days comes after a rough start to the week that saw the S&P 500 slip to a nearly two-year intraday low on Wednesday.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 23, 2016, 08:43:09 AM

Weekend Reading: The Bear Awakens
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/22/2016 16:25 -0500

Art Cashin Bear Market China David Bianco Deutsche Bank James Montier John Hussman John Williams Morningstar Ray Dalio Recession Richard Bernstein San Francisco Fed Tyler Durden Volatility

Submitted by Lance Roberts via,

Of the last several weeks, I have suggested that markets are oversold and that a bounce was likely. However, such a reflexive bounce should be used to sell into as it is now becoming clearer the markets have changed their trend from positive to negative. As I discussed earlier this week:

“The concept of the full-market cycle is critically important to understand considering the markets have very likely broken the bullish trend that began in 2009. Take a look at the first chart below.”

“This “weekly” chart of the S&P 500 shows the bullish trends which were clearly defined during their advances in the late 1990’s, 2003-2007 and 2009-present. Each of these bullish advances, despite ongoing bullish calls to the contrary, ended rather badly with extremely similar circumstances: technical breakdowns, weakening economics, and deteriorating earnings.
As I have shown in the chart above, when the markets broke the bullish trends (blue dashed lines), the subsequent bear market occurred rather rapidly. The conversion from the bull market to the bear market was marked by a breakdown in prices and the issuance of a very long-term “sell signal” as noted in the bottom of the chart.
We can look at this same analysis a little differently and see much of the same evidence.”

“The chart above shows something I discussed last week: ‘Markets crash when they’re oversold.’”
The inability for the markets to muster a rally from currently extremely oversold short-term conditions suggests market dynamics have indeed changed from a “buy the dip” to “sell the rally” mentality.

This weekend’s reading list is a collection of articles on the current state of the market. Is this just a correction within a bullish tend? Or, is this the beginning of the long awaited bear?

1) 7 Reasons Not To Be A Bear by Jeff Reeves via MarketWatch

Insulation From China
US Dollar
The Long Term
But Also Read:  Growth Fears Grip The Market by Robert Johnson via Morningstar

2) Charts To Retain Ones Sanity by Scott Grannis via Calafia Beach *

“Financial markets are once again swooning as oil prices collapse, stoking fears of another global financial crisis. Without trying to minimize the angst we all feel, I offer here some charts which are useful for retaining one’s sanity, along with some commentary.”

But Also Read: US Economy Slip-Sliding Away by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting Man Blog

Also Read: The Case For Chaos & Equity Bottoms by Anna-Louise Jackson via Bloomberg

3) The Deeper Causes Of The Market Rout by Mohamed El-Erian via Bloomberg

“To shed light on one of the worst starts to a new year for global stock markets, some analysts are turning to macroeconomic explanations, such as China’s economic slowdown and its uncharacteristic policy slips. Others prefer to focus on the cascading influence of unhinged markets, such as oil. Yet neither explanation is sufficiently comprehensive; and each fails to account for major changes in liquidity and volatility.”
But Also Read: Art Cashin – “This Is What You Get Before A Crisis” by Christoph Gisiger via Zero Hedge

And: 7 Numbers To Put The Market Madness Into Perspective by Paul Lim via Time

4) Who Let The Bulls Out? by Paul La Monica via CNN Money

“Deutsche Bank chief equity strategist David Bianco defended stocks in a report Tuesday called ‘Gotta swing when you see it.’ He must be eager for spring training to start.
Bianco wrote, ‘We are not panicked by this correction because we understand it. It’s driven by a profit recession centered at certain industries caused by factors that we’ve long flagged as risks.’
In other words, nobody should be surprised that the dramatic plunge in oil prices is bad news for the bottom lines of energy and industrial companies.
Bianco added that ‘this correction has overly punished other sectors and now we’re ready to take advantage of it.’  And he said the next 5% move in the S&P 500 is likely ‘to be up and soon.'”
Also Read: Stocks Could Fall 5000 Points by Brett Arends via MarketWatch

Further Read: Ray Dalio On Asymmetric Risk by Tyler Durden via Zero Hedge


Watch: Stocks Have Much Further To Fall


5) Will The Fed Rescue The Market by Anthony Mirhaydari via Fiscal Times

“It’s far from assured the Fed will ride to the rescue of investors this time.
On Friday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams said he doesn’t see signs that asset values are depressed or below normal and cited the strong dollar as more of a concern than low commodity prices. He defended the December rate hike decision — and he added that the Fed has met its full employment mandate, believes the labor market will continue to strengthen this year and that inflation should return to policymakers’ 2 percent target over the next couple of years.
We’ll know more when the Fed holds its next policy meeting on January 26 and 27. We’ll find out this week if the bloodbath continues.”

But Also Read: The Bright Side To Stock Rout by John Kimelman via Barron’s

And: Time To Be A Contrarian? by John Plender via


8 Investing Myths by Bob Seawright via Above The Market
The 50/30/20 Rule Of Markets by Ivaylo Inanov via Ivanhoff Capital
Don’t Believe Strong Jobs Numbers by Editorial Staff via
Things I’m Pretty Sure About by Morgan Housel via Motley Fool
Asset Allocation 2.0 by Richard Bernstein via Advisor Perspectives
A Perfect Storm by David Stockman via Contra Corner
Why Is Oil Plummeting by Karl Russell via NYT
The Dead Hand Of Debt by Buttonwood via The Economist
Why Politicians Are Ignorant About Economics by John Stossel via Fox News
An Imminent Likelihood Of Recession by John Hussman via Hussman Funds
Is It Time To Buy Stocks? No. by Jesse Felder via The Felder Report
Stock Correction Sets Lowly Record by Dana Lyons via Tumblr
Market Macro Myths -Debt, Deficits & Delusions by James Montier via GMO
“Better to preserve capital on the downside rather than outperform on the upside” – William J. Lippman
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 23, 2016, 08:46:28 AM

道指收漲210點單周轉向 技術大師話未驚完
01月23日(六) 05:00   


【on.cc東網專訊】美股2016年開局慘跌後,在憧憬日本及歐洲加大量化寬鬆(QE),以及油價大反彈下,本周出現「單周轉向」訊號。不過,市場僅視上升為「死貓彈」,其中有「技術分析教父」之稱的阿坎波拉(Ralph Acampora)表示,現時市場的自滿情緒令他想起2000年,較2008年金融海嘯更可怕。




專家大行對後市仍偏向悲觀。有「技術分析教父」之稱的阿坎波拉(Ralph Acampora)表示,現時市場的自滿情緒令他想起2000年,較2008年金融海嘯更可怕。他指出,投資者已忽略了一個最古老的技術指標,這就是「道氏理論」。「道氏理論」是根據運輸指數與工業指數的互動所得出,通常運輸指數會較工業指數具前瞻性。結果是:運輸指數去年累瀉25%,早已預示大家所熟悉的道指將會跟隨大跌!



不過,上周揚言美股恐要再跌10%的貝萊德主席及行政總裁芬克(Larry Fink)則表示,現時他對美股的看法較之前「牛」,但相信油價仍未見底。他稱,環球股市今年以來不斷遭拋售,但在本周三開始已見到買家入場,料美股年底時將高於現水平,呼籲投資者可繼續持股。
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 23, 2016, 04:42:46 PM

以史為鑑:美股1月開局差透 最悲時刻已過
01月23日(六) 04:52   


據外國傳媒報道,BMO Capital首席投資策略師Brian Belski表示,標指本月表現為2009年1月以來最差,並且是二次大戰後第11個最差月份,但歷史顯示,這或反映是長期牛市的開端,呼籲投資者不要沽貨。

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 24, 2016, 08:58:06 AM

Buckle up! This economic doomsayer sees plenty more volatility
Bryan Borzykowski, special to
2 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
The stock market may be taking a breather from its big fall — the S&P 500 was up about 1.5 percent on Jan. 22 — but one economist thinks that we're going to see plenty more volatility in the next few months and another big correction in about two years.

Alan Beaulieu, economist and co-principal of ITR Economics, a New Hampshire-based economics consultancy firm, thinks that macroeconomic fears will make investors jittery for some time, at least until China's government intervenes with a stimulus program.

NYSE New York Stock Exchange traders markets
Lucas Jackson | Reuters
Looking further into the future, we'll see another decline, of at least 10 percent, in late 2018, when U.S. interest rates reach 3.5 percent, he said. That will make it more difficult for the consumer to continue propping up the economy with spending.

Beaulieu, who runs the firm with his twin brother Brian, also an economist, has a history of getting calls right. He predicted the current drop back in 2009. He also called the recession, and according to him, their predictions have come true 95 percent of the time over the last 60 years.

The Beaulieus use a proprietary mathematical equation called cycle theory, but a big part of their work focuses on the rate of change in leading indicators — or how fast indicators change from one month or one year to the next.

Most of its predictions are short term — a year out — but it does make much longer calls, too. Its firm has given advice to major companies, such as Honda, Caterpillar, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo and more.

"We thought there were would be a correction for two reasons," said Beaulieu. America's unprecedented quantitative-easing program would buoy the market, and it would take time before China's rapid growth came to a halt.

He believed that quantitative easing would end up driving inflation much higher, which would then sink the markets, but that part hasn't yet happened. "Money never really flowed through to the mainstream," he said in an interview this week. "Corporate holdings of cash have ballooned dramatically."

His thoughts on China, though, have come true. In 2009 he and his brother predicted that wage inflation would occur, costs to clean up the environment would increase, rising incomes would hurt its ability to manufacture goods cheaply, there would be blowback around intellectual property theft, and all of this would cause China's growth to slow down. In turn, they'd use less commodities, and that would impact oil and metal prices and everything in between.

Beaulieu also said that the shift from an export-led economy to a more domestic-led one — something China has been working on for years — has failed. "That grand decision has not worked out," he said. "The middle-class growth hasn't been able to sustain the economy." It's this slowdown that's been a major factor in the recent correction, he explained.

Half a year of volatility

While he doesn't think we'll experience a more than 20 percent market drop like we did in 2008 — America is in a much better position than it was back then, he said — we will likely see some more large swings and increased volatility until at least the middle of the year. Why only until the middle of the year? Because market ups and downs are usually related to people's fears, and those worries won't dissipate for a few months.

Investors are nervous about where the global economy is headed, and the cycle of mass sell-offs discount buying and then selling again will continue until people start feeling more comfortable, he said. It will take two things for people to feel calmer. They need to see America's economy growing — and it is, Beaulieu said — and an intervention in China.

"The U.S. is leading the way, economically speaking," he said. "The American consumer is doing yeoman's work. It's marvelous. We have low debt, low delinquencies, good savings in terms of dollars, and spending is at high levels. There's job creation, and the economy is strong."

financial bubble NYSE
Red alert: A $1 trillion stock bubble ready to pop
China will recover in 2016 and will see its GDP grow by 6.5 percent, he said. In the next quarter, the government will announce that it will spend billions on infrastructure, much like it did during the crisis. Programs likely won't get implemented until mid-year, which is when people will start to calm down.

"That will be enough to put the world into a better place in the second half of 2016," Beaulieu said.

More pain in 2018

Things will remain calm for about two years, except for another decline of at least 10 percent in the latter half of 2018 or early 2019, he said, thanks to rising U.S. interest rates.

The Federal Open Market Committee has said that it expects rates to rise to around 3.5 percent in 2018, which would put 30-year fixed mortgage rates at about 6.5 percent to 7 percent, while credit card variable rates would rise by about 3 percentage points, he said. While this is historically normal, it would be high for the majority of people who haven't ever had to deal with rates at that level.

Until then, job growth and consumer activity will do well, he said, but once consumers can't fuel the economy anymore, we'll start seeing layoffs, corporate profits declines and modest inflation. Then the stock market will suffer.

"[Rates] can be expected to have a negative impact on discretionary income and thus have a negative impact on home purchases and consumer spending," Beaulieu said.

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
These investments do best in a market downturn
With all of this in mind, he thinks investors should pick the spots that will benefit from spending. Beaulieu suggests owning stocks that will benefit from good consumer activity and mild inflationary pressures, such as companies in the consumer staples, discretionary and real estate sectors. Commodities, like oil and gas, also tend to be more profitable in inflationary environments, he said.

By the end of 2018, though, and definitely into 2019, investors should get much more conservative in their portfolio. Own one of the more defensive stocks, such as utilities or staples, or companies that pay a dividend above or in line with the rate of inflation, he said. Bonds, unless they're held to maturity, are a risk as their prices fall when rates rise, he added.

Knowing that his predictions tend to come true, Beaulieu made sure that his own portfolio was set up to withstand any market shocks.

He won't say how much money he moved out of equities, but he did put stops on some of his stocks last year so if they fell too far, they'd sell automatically. Beaulieu also bought real estate in order to own some uncorrelated assets.

"We wanted to reduce the downside pressure on the stock market," he said. "So we put on the breaks."

— By Bryan Borzykowski, special to
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 24, 2016, 08:59:33 AM

Relief rally is here. Enjoy it while it lasts: Technician
Amanda Diaz   | @CNBCDiaz
6 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

For the first time this year, the bulls are showing their horns.

The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed their first positive week in the last three, renewing confidence in the otherwise gloomy market environment. According to one technician, a bottom could be in place for the very near-term—at least for the time being.

"The first thing we see [on the charts] are the textbook signs of short-term trend exhaustion," Rich Ross, head of technical analysis for Evercore ISI, told CNBC's "Trading Nation" this week. The S&P 500 saw its best trading session in more than a month on Friday.

Looking at a chart of the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ETF), the SPY, Ross pointed what he calls a three-day pattern of "exhaustion, stabilization and follow through" that formed on the chart in recent days. He pointed to the low seen mid-week as the exhaustion phase, the rally on Thursday as the market trying to find footing, and the continued strength during Friday's session as a confirmation in trend.

"I think that sets the stage for some short-term relief that could take us higher," he said.

Read More Strategist: Market downturn is a 'buying opportunity'

For Ross, the S&P 500 rally another 5 percent over in the next several sessions, with the SPY going as high as $200 before resuming its downtrend. On Friday, the fund traded around $190.

Outlook still negative

Ross, who correctly called for a break below 1,900 in the S&P 500 a few weeks ago, ultimately believes that the market will retest its Wednesday low of roughly 1,812, which translates into $181 on the SPY.Looking at a longer-term picture, Ross noted that there could still be significant downside ahead.

"It looks to me like we're forming the neckline of a big head and shoulders top," said the analyst. "A break below that neckline gives us a confirmed breakdown that sets us up for a deeper pullback," he said.

For now, added Ross, enjoy the bounce while it lasts
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 24, 2016, 09:04:08 AM

1周10大驚奇:股樓見底未? 想知就要睇異象
01月22日(五) 19:34   


【on.cc東網專訊】《1周10大驚奇》早於去年4月觀察到金融異象,直指港股恐要跌到今年4月,屆時或低見16,000點水平、去年5月首發股災警報後一直高呼小心、去年12月明言環球股市或在2015年上演「終極一彈」,2016年跌到你唔信、本月開首預言「美國總統魔咒」降臨;去年7月亦提醒港樓危殆,恐狠瀉5成。若仍譏諷《1周10大驚奇》只是事後孔明、斷章取義,只能說 閣下少留意《東網》的詳盡財經新聞。現時人人估底,金融異象又是否預示同一去向呢?

1、金融異象:要估底 必須留意油金走勢!


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2、金融異象:要估底 必須留意油VIX走勢!



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3、油價怎麼了? 有國家賣油低於20美元


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4、經濟怎麼了? 「殭屍船」話你知弊!


波羅的海交易所行政總裁Jeremy Penn說:「我們經歷過90年、80年代和70年代的考驗,但現時竟然是有記憶以來最糟糕。」反映現時航運危機最少是1970年代以來最嚴重,不要忘記,它是全球經濟的領先指標。

倫敦上市的船舶經紀公司Braemar Seascope行政總裁James Kidwell表示,很簡單,如果船隻比要運的貨還要多,運費自然就低迷了,於是「殭屍船」應運而生。

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5、去年焦點希臘 今年聚焦巴西!



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6、末日博士:中國經濟恐僅增4% 債泡危


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基金經理、前身為大學教授的John Hussman,獨創了「投資氣候」理論,是一位「死硬派淡友」,如今他告知天下,有一個訊號接近「保證」美國經濟衰退!



John Hussman為「死硬派淡友」,早於2013年唱淡美股而不斷被人恥笑,但去年5月終於估中美股見頂,引來外國傳媒目光。他去年預言美股要狂瀉40至55%,而且不是最壞情況。
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8、索羅斯:歐盟面臨崩潰! 正沽空美股


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10、咩話?道指若再瀉5千點 估值仍不便宜




Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 24, 2016, 09:07:03 AM

Cramer: Our situation is worse, despite the rally
Abigail Stevenson   | @A_StevensonCNBC
Friday, 22 Jan 2016 | 6:22 PM ET
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Investing has reached the point where it is at war. The opposing sides are the fundamentals versus the market, and Jim Cramer hasn't seen it this bad in ages.

The averages bounced back nicely on Friday, with the Dow rebounding triple digits. But, despite the rally, Cramer thinks the fundamentals of the market do not indicate that it is any better off than it was before.

Cramer's concerns all boiled down to three topics: the strong dollar, the price of oil and earnings.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
The strong dollar is worrisome to Cramer, because this is the quarterly earnings season where CEOs can no longer get a pass on currency. If earnings are too weak because of the strong dollar, too bad! It can no longer be dismissed as a valid excuse for earnings woes.

"This time the dollar has become a cost, just like labor, or interest payments or raw goods," Cramer said.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Cramer Remix: Snowstorms could make this a winner
Cramer: Oil's insane connection to rallying stocks
Cramer: Oil could go to $10

The second fundamental at odds with the rebounding market was the price of oil. Crude rallied back above $31, but that did not mean anything to Cramer. At the end of the day, the world is still flooded with oil and there is not enough demand to offset the supply.

Finally, the last concern for Cramer was the earnings for individual companies. On average, they have just been OK. Very few companies have benefited from the decline in oil prices, and many industries such as housing and autos have peaked.

So, despite the rally on Friday, when Cramer assessed where the stock market really was — he concluded that the macro situation has actually gotten worse, not better.

"I think we are witnessing an oversold rally that could be sowing the seeds of its own demise as it bulls its way higher to levels that just don't make a lot of sense given the fundamentals," Cramer said.

And while these three fundamental concerns are no reason to dump stocks wholesale, Cramer recommended that they are a reason to trim some positions into strength. He wants investors to be ready for more weakness, especially if the Fed continues to insist on raising rates this year.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 24, 2016, 09:58:50 AM

The End Is Nigh For The Fed's "Bubble Epoch"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/23/2016 15:15 -0500

Bear Market Bureau of Labor Statistics Central Banks Crude Crude Oil Germany Janet Yellen None Reality recovery Unemployment Wall Street Journal

Submitted by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners (annotated by Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum),

Market Mythology

Twice in the last 15 years, markets have tried to correct the mistakes and excesses of the Bubble Epoch.


Business cycle trumps central planning again.


Each time, the Fed came back with even more mistakes and excesses. Trillions in new credit... lower lending rates... easier terms... ZIRP... QE... and the Twist!



The gaggle of price-fixers the job of which is to regularly falsify one of the most important price signals in the economy. The idea that the economy can be “improved” by the interventions of a handful of people who have zero practical economic experience and rely on extremely dubious theories to guide their decisions is downright bizarre. Who can possibly believe that this works? It is a huge farce – one that is very dangerous for prosperity and economic progress.


Over the short run, markets respond to myths. Investors are ready to believe almost anything… for a while. But over the long run, there is death and destruction – a reality outside of what we believe.

No matter how badly investors want asset prices to go up, for example, asset prices don’t always comply.

The financial media don’t know what to do. Typically, they downplay a bear market as long as they can… explaining the many reasons why the sell-off is “overdone” and why the “bottom” has already been found.

The Wall Street Journal, for example, tells us that the “market’s panic is incongruent” with economic reality. Yahoo! Finance already sees “signs of capitulation.” It offers advice on “how to trade a bear market,” too.



The DJIA and crude oil. Over the past two days they have begun to bounce a little after becoming extremely oversold. Still, the market doesn’t care about anyone’s opinions – it will do whatever it needs to do – click to enlarge.


At the Diary, we don’t believe you should try to “trade a bear market.” Bears are treacherous and unpredictable. Our best advice is to stay out of its way. We don’t know whether it will get uglier now… or further down the road. But sooner or later, markets will retest the myths that support today’s asset prices.

They will begin by asking questions: Are stocks too expensive? Can investors repay their debt? Is the economy capable of real growth? Can a small bunch of PhD economists with no market or business experience really manage the entire world’s economy?

As to the first, second, and third questions, we don’t know the answers. But the answer to the fourth is an unhedged, undiluted “no.”


Only Human

Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen are, after all, only human. They respond to myths as much as anyone… maybe more. They’ve spent their entire careers studying the sacred texts of modern economics. Like Talmudic scholars late in life, they aren’t likely to convert to Baptists!

They say they want inflation at 2%. Not 1%. Not 3%. Two hundred basis points – no more, no less. What theory… what experience… what revelation leads them to think that an economy should have annual price increases of 2%? There is none. It is a modern myth. In reality, prices go up and down on supply and demand. There’s no more reason they should always go up by 2% than down by 2%.



The “era of price stability” under the Fed. As you can see, they are real masters at fulfilling their absurd mandate. Their inflation targeting theory is not only completely bereft of theoretical and empirical support, it is in fact plainly contradicted by both theory and the empirical studies that do exist (some of which have been undertaken by the Fed’s own economists!). In short, it is complete hokum – click to enlarge.


The PhDs at the helm of the world’s central banks also believe they can change people’s buying, selling, and investing decisions – for the better – by providing them with false data. We have no doubt the Fed can change behavior. It’s the “for the better” part that troubles us.

Interest rates by Fed diktat, for example, send completely phony signals, since they disguise the true cost of credit. The theory goes that low interest rates motivate people to borrow and spend. But where’s the evidence? Isn’t there an economic law somewhere that cutting incomes for savers has the opposite effect?

And there’s more to the story. There’s a reality, as well as a myth. Reality is that resources are limited. Prices tell us what we’ve got to work with. Falsify prices and you get errors of omission and commission. After a while, the system suffers from things it shouldna, oughtna done.

As Hjalmar Schacht, Germany’s minister of economics in the 1930s, put it: “I don’t want a low rate. I don’t want a high rate. I want a true rate.”

An honest interest rate tells the truth about how much savings are available and at what price. People still make mistakes; they still get up to some pretty weird stuff. But at least the ******** aren’t handing out candy on the playground.



“Old School” economy minister and later central banker, Hjalmar Schacht – not interested in manipulate interest rates.


Greasy Numbers

Then there’s the “unemployment rate.” The feds look at its figures and tell us the recovery has been a success… because the unemployment rate is back down to about 5%. They are citing as “fact” a statistic so greasy even a witchdoctor would be embarrassed by it.

In December, for example, the Bureau of Labor statistics announced that 292,000 Americans had found jobs. This was widely regarded as a triumph for the Fed. Many times has Janet Yellen said she feels the pain of the jobless. Naturally, she takes great pride in the current job picture as she has painted it.



By the time the final revisions arrive, the numbers won’t be recognizable anymore. The initial release is usually so far removed from reality, one wonders why anyone should be interested in it at all. The main reason why governments gather these statistics is that they give them a reason to meddle with the economy – click to enlarge.


But as you have probably heard by now, only 1 out of every 28 of those new hires can buy you a beer to toast their new-found fortune. The others – 281,000 of them – don’t exist. The feds merely made a “seasonal adjustment.” The jobs were mythical, in other words.

Mythical facts. Mythical theories. Mythical recovery. Watch out. The market is a myth buster.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 24, 2016, 04:21:03 PM

"But It's Only A Manufacturing Recession, What's The Big Deal" - Here's The Answer
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/23/2016 20:40 -0500

headlines Ludwig von Mises Monetary Policy Recession recovery

Despite the services economy starting to turn down towards manufacturing's inevitable recessionary prints, there remains a hope-strewn crowd of status-quo face-savers desperately clinging to the linear-thinking "but manufacturing is only 12% of economic output and thus is no longer a good bellwether for the overall economy" narrative. Here is why they are wrong not to worry...


On the left below, we see the mainstream media's perspective on why a collapse in manufacturing "doesn't matter" and you should buy moar stocks.

On the right below, we see why it does... especially since the "doesn't matter" narrative is used only to justify buying moar stocks...

h/t @Spruce_gum


Which explains why this is happening!!

Self-destructing The Fed's very own wealth-creation scheme.

While it is hoped that the economy can continue to expand on the back of the "service" sector alone, history suggests that "manufacturing" continues to play a much more important dynamic that it is given credit for.

The decline in imports, surging inventories, and weak durable goods all suggest the economy is weaker than headlines, or the financial markets, currently suggest. And in fact, services are starting to follow...


Of course, as we previously concluded, while recessions are "needed," public opinion is generally quite simple in regard to recession: upswings are generally welcomed, recessions are to be avoided. The “Austrians” are however at odds with this general consensus — we regard recessions as healthy and necessary. Economic downturns only correct the aberrations and excesses of a boom. The benefits of recessions include:

Sclerotic structures in the labor market are broken up and labor costs decline.
Productivity and competitiveness increase.
Misallocations are corrected and unprofitable investments abandoned, written off, or liquidated.
Government mismanagement of the economy is exposed.
Investors and entrepreneurs who were taking too great risks suffer losses and prices adjust to reflect consumer preferences.
Recessions also allow a restructuring of production processes.
At the end of the corrective process, the foundation for a renewed upswing is more stable and healthy. We thus see deflationary corrections as a precondition for growth in prosperity that is sustainable in the long term. Ludwig von Mises understood this when he observed:

The return to monetary stability does not generate a crisis. It only brings to light the malinvestments and other mistakes that were made under the hallucination of the illusory prosperity created by the easy money.
However, in addition to leading to true temporary hardship for the malinvestment-affected areas of the economy, an economic recession in the near future would represent a harsh loss of face for central bankers. Their controversial monetary policy measures were justified as an appropriate means to nurse the economy back to health. That is, their efforts to end or avoid helpful recessions were claimed to contribute to the eagerly awaited self-sustaining recovery
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 25, 2016, 08:49:43 AM

Stockman: The markets are in store for a ‘thundering reset’
Amanda Diaz   | @CNBCDiaz
10 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Wall Street is breathing a sigh of relief after the S&P 500 Index managed to eke out its first weekly gain of the year. Despite the signs of strength, one prominent market watcher says stocks are still in store for a "thundering reset."

"I think we have a dead cat bounce in no-man's-land," David Stockman told CNBC's "Fast Money" last week. According to Stockman, the broad market has been trading in the abyss since breaking above 1,870 in 2014, seeing a meager 1 percent return since then.

"We're been there now for 700 days…we've had something like 35 attempts at rallies and all of them have failed for what I call the "four no's"," he added.

For Stockman, those "four no's" consist of a combination of no escape velocity, no earnings growth, no dry powder from the central banks and no reflation. Taken together, it leads him to believe the U.S. economy is on the cusp of a full-blown recession.

Read MoreMarket complacency reminds me of the year 2000: Acampora
"We're getting to a point where the chickens are coming home to roost. There's no help from the central banks and that's why these rallies are getting weaker and weaker and shorter and shorter," said Stockman, who was the former OMB Director under President Ronald Reagan.

'Nowhere to go but down'

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange September 17, 2008 in New York City. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 449 points today despite American International Group, Inc. (AIG) $85 billion government bailout.
Worried about US recession? It's already here: Pro
NYSE New York Stock Exchange traders markets
Economic doomsayer sees plenty more volatility

Investors took heart last week from the prospect of more easing from the European Central Bank, which broadly lifted markets. By contrast, economists widely believe the Federal Reserve has all but exhausted the weapons in its economic war chest, with its balance sheet having exploded from $850 billion before the 2008 crisis to nearly $4.5 trillion currently.

Stockman believes that the flood of easy money from central banks around the world has formed a credit crisis so severe that it could take years to dig out of the hole that's been created. The market watcher pointed to a stunning $21 trillion collective balance sheet build up around the world, up from $2.1 trillion just 20 years ago.

"This is high powered money that caused an enormous expansion of credit and financial valuation bubble," he said. Stockman noted that the rapid increase of credit has resulted in debt around the world of more than $225 trillion. "We are at peak debt," he added.

At this point, Stockman believes that the Fed's hands are tied after sitting on zero interest rates for nearly a decade. "There's nowhere to go but negative," he said. "It's time to get out of the market completely."

Read More Three incredible facts about the market's horrible run

The S&P 500 has been steadily in correction territory in 2016. The large-cap index closed the week roughly 11 percent from its 52-week high, but Stockman believes it could plunge another 30 percent from where its trading now, which takes it back to levels not seen since 2012.

"It's a dangerous thing to catch a falling knife, the coming correction will come quickly in the next year," Stockman concluded.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 25, 2016, 08:54:21 AM

After the selloff, stocks may actually be cheap
Alex Rosenberg   | @CNBCAlex
2 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Wall Street Bull
Getty Images
The brutal sell off Wall Street has endured over the last few weeks may have a silver lining.

The S&P 500 Index is currently trading at about 15 times the earnings analysts expect constituent companies to post over the next year, according to FactSet. This reading on this popular measure of valuation, known as "forward P/E," compares to a 15-year average forward P/E ratio of 15.7.

Of course, the conclusion gleaned from a historical comparison depends on the timeframe considered. In this case, it is worth noting that the current valuation level still represents a premium to the average of 14.3 seen over the past five- and ten-year periods.
Meanwhile, and likely because the firm is using different earnings estimates, S&P Capital IQ's current forward valuation number is 15.7, although they also note that is below the 15-year average.

However one does his or her math, there is no escaping the conclusion that by traditional metrics, stocks are cheaper now than they were in the middle of 2014; as record highs were hit in 2015; or even a few weeks ago.

Broadly speaking, what appears to have happened is that even as some investors provide a variety of economic feas or selling stocks ("The recession is nigh!"), analysts haven't substantially reduced their earnings estimates.

That means that the numerator in the "P/E" ratio has fallen, even as the denominator remains relatively static.

Read MoreStockman: The markets are in store for a 'thundering reset'

Meanwhile, the first earnings to trickle in have verged on decent, as 73 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten their earnings estimates.

Predicting the short-term fluctuations of a multifaceted and sentiment-driven market is probably a fool's errand. But for long-term-focused investors, the question appears to be: Is the economy actually getting worse, and will earnings subsequently drop?

If their answer to that second, more important question is "no," then increasing their allocation to stocks right now could be a decent proposition.

(A note: Some might prefer to consider a trailing earnings ratio instead, despite the fact that few investors pay today's dollars for last years' results, but this shows a similar result: The last-twelve months number currently shows a reading at 16.3 last-twelve-months' earning, compared to a 15-year average of 17.7, according to numbers provided by FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters.)
—By CNBC's Alex Rosenberg
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 25, 2016, 06:14:51 PM

Investors: Keep your itchy finger off the trigger
What followed the 2008 mass exodus from stock funds? A five-year, cumulative 8.6 percent return for the S&P 500.
Eric Rosenbaum   | @erprose
14 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
How about that 550-point intraday dive last week in the Dow! Did that finally get you to sell?

Or was it one of the many headlines about the trillions of dollars that have been wiped out of the stock market in the worst start for the Dow in history — since 1897! And worst start for the S&P 500 since the Great Depression began in 1929.

Oh, c'mon, that was "so last Wednesday." The panic and the paranoia are over now.

Surely, when all the major indices ripped higher on Friday, and stocks registered their first positive week of the year, and that diving-Dow had two straight days with triple-digit gains, you had plowed right back into the stock market and banked all those big gains.


Money hidden under Modern bed mattress
Zachary Scott | Getty Images
So far in January, investors have yanked near-$7 billion from stock funds, according to Thomson Reuters Lipper data. Investors have also put more than $3 billion into money market funds — the market's under-the-mattress cash equivalent. But the more alarming data comes from last month, when investors pulled $48 billion from stock funds. That is eerily similar to 2008, as the financial crash hardened: Investors took $49 billion out of stock funds in Sept. 2008 and $55 billion out of stock funds in October 2008.

Kudos to investors for the great timing. Except for the fact that from 2008 to 2012, the S&P 500 generated a cumulative return of 8.6 percent.

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
These investments do best in a market downturn
Here's the problem: If an investor missed the 36 percent drop in the S&P 500 in 2008 — or even worse, bailed on the markets mid-carnage — they probably also missed the 26 percent gain in the S&P 500 in 2009, and the next three positive years for the index that followed.

In 2011, investors pulled another $94 billion from stock funds, and in 2012 another $129 billion, when the S&P 500 was up 16 percent. Hundreds of billions of dollars pulled out of stocks during a period of time when a stay-the-course strategy would have netted an 8.6 percent cumulative gain. Not a shoot-the-lights-out strategy, but nothing to sneeze at either in today's low-return — not to mention nil savings rate — environment.
"The global financial crisis created such a high level of risk aversion that people didn't just wait for the start of the rebound. In some cases, they waited for years," said Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors. "I can't tell you how many investors I came across in 2011, 2012 and even 2013 who had missed out on a lot of the comeback in the stock market and were still sitting in cash."

It's what Lipper's head of Americas Research, Jeff Tjornehoj, calls the dilemma of the do-nothing investor: More often than not, the do-nothing investor does better.
"It's a rocky ride, but the do-nothing investor would have been fine and avoided headaches," Tjornehoj said, referring to those who stayed invested through the crash. He added, "If you know precisely how to move between stocks and bonds and everything else, you would have done better, but how many investors know how to do that?"

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
How much is your portfolio down? This much?
"The big issue is that when you go to cash, you have to be right twice," said Mitch Goldberg, financial advisor and president of Dix Hills, New York-based ClientFirst Strategy. "First, you have to be right about getting your timing correct when you sell. If you are selling because it is your panic reaction in a down market, I think it's fair to say you probably got that part of the decision wrong. The second part you have to get right is the timing of your buy orders. And if you are waiting for the perfect time to buy, you'll never pull the trigger."

And here's a key that many investors who plan to be smarter than the "herd" miss, especially in markets like the one investors faced last week, with huge swings in the norm day-to-day. A move to cash works against the investor to a greater degree when there is greater volatility.

"Friday's rally in global equity markets is a case in point of how investors who just binged on cash are missing out on a big rebound," Goldberg said. "It's tough to time, and missing out on the best days of the year has a restraining effect on long-term performance," Goldberg said.

Allianz Global Investors provided an example of just how much investors can lose out in just a few days. The Allianz economic research and strategy team looked at the period from 1973 to the end of 2014, comparing four different approaches to investing in the U.S. stock market. Investors who missed the three biggest days of each year see their gains go down dramatically.
In the first approach, $100 is invested on the first day of the year and another $100 dollars added at the start of each year thereafter. The total return over the four decades was $52,251.
In the market-timing approach, if an investor invests the same $100 at the start of each year but misses the top three days of the year, the total return was $2,953.

The best return of all came from investing $100 on the day of the lowest index level of the year — the best day of the year to invest — and adding $100 on the lowest-index-level days of subsequent years. That approach netted a total return of $54,355.

"The problem is that we can never predict when the best days will occur, so we have to stay fully invested all the time to experience them," Hooper said, adding that most days in any given year (both positive and negative) will typically produce a net flat performance.
Those "big day" misses, or gains, compound over the years.

The pleasure and pain of investing

The key problem I see when investors go to cash has a lot to do with procrastination," Goldberg said. "They think about getting back into the market in a conceptual way, but when it comes right down to it, they often don't because they didn't implement a disciplined strategy to get back in. If the stock market bounces and rips higher, they say to themselves, 'I could've gotten in lower, so now I'll wait for another pullback.' Then the market pulls back and they say to themselves, 'I'll wait to see if it goes lower.' And so on."
Tim Maurer, director of personal finance for The BAM Alliance of financial advisory companies, said that the field of behavioral finance has demonstrated how our brains often think (wrongly) when it comes to evaluating the pain of losses versus the pleasure of gains.
Maurer said to consider the decision between staying invested after a market decline or moving to cash as a four-step process:
The pain of staying invested is that I could lose even more.
The pleasure of moving to cash is that my worry is eliminated and I'm guaranteed not to lose any more.
The pain involved in moving to cash is that I'll miss the upside, thereby eliminating my opportunity to recoup recent losses in the next market up move.
The pleasure in staying invested is that I'm giving myself a better chance to achieve my financial goals in the long term — the reason I invested in the market in the first place.
He said the four-step process has one purpose: to bring the vast majority of investors back to the conclusion that they shouldn't get out of the market.
"The market has historically paid investors a premium over cash and bonds precisely because it requires investors to endure times of volatility," Maurer said. "Without volatility, we'd have no reason to expect higher long-term gains."

Investing decisions
A stock bet that's doubled index return since 1991
A few weeks ago — amid one of the many recent bouts of extreme daily selling — a friend asked me whether they should sell their Facebook shares. I asked, "And replace them with what?" She didn't have an answer.

Another friend, in his 40s, texted in a panic to ask if it was the time to get out of stocks. I asked him what stocks, in particular, he meant to sell. He said no stocks, just moving his retirement portfolio as a whole out of equities. I replied with several exclamation points — you can imagine the words that preceded the punctuation yourself.

"At the start of December, I addressed a roomful of high-net-worth financial advisors and asked them, 'How many of you expect the market to fall more than 10 percent in 2016?'" said Allianz' Hooper. "Nearly every hand in the room went up. And yet now that the market has experienced the sell-off, many are not viewing it as a healthy correction but are panicking and fearing the worst."

"The big issue is that when you go to cash, you have to be right twice."
-Mitch Goldberg, president of ClientFirst Strategy
Hooper said the psychology is easy to understand. Sell-offs are by nature disorderly and create a contagion of fear, and investors believe that when stocks go down 10 percent in value, there's something "the market knows" but a Main Street investor doesn't.
"In reality it is just a herd, and herding is a dangerous activity for investors," Hooper said.
There is always a good case to be made for rebalancing from stocks that have run up a lot into stocks that seem undervalued. Maurer said it's good to be "greedy" like Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO Warren Buffett through stock rebalancing. But when Lipper fund-flows data shows net negative flows in equity funds, that's not what's going on with the mass of retail investors.

Goldberg is a "big proponent" of raising cash at times, but said the time to do it is when stocks are rising and then wait patiently for new opportunities. "I never feel pressure to be fully invested at all times. But I do not believe in going to cash as an 'all or nothing' trade," he said.

Non-GMO corn is harvested with a John Deere & Co. 9670 STS combine harvester in this aerial photograph taken above Malden, Illinois
A way to match billionaires buying up our farmland
Cash proponents will argue that staying invested is a disaster-in-the-making for retirees. Goldberg said retirees are naturally the most fearful, but it's the cash mentality rather than staying in equities that is the "never-ending wealth destroyer pattern."

"You're now giving up on an asset class that historically has been a hedge against inflation," Goldberg said. "Sure, inflation is nonexistent according to headline statistics. But if you pay for health insurance, which as a senior could easily be sending a big proportion of your income on health care, you know you are ground zero for inflation pain."

In fact, if any retiree has a portfolio constructed with investments that would collectively go to zero in a stock market correction, the only question worth asking is, Who designed your portfolio, and how quickly can you fire them?

There's a reason that famed investors like Vanguard Group's Jack Bogle and Buffett sound like a broken record with the "stay the course" mantra.
It's not just because their millions and billions allow them to do so with comfort — though that helps.

It's because they're right
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 04:55:14 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 05:56:26 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 07:12:46 AM

Jim Bianco: "The Markets Are Telling Us There's A Severe Issue Out There"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/25/2016 15:15 -0500

Bear Market China Crude Crude Oil Federal Reserve Greece High Yield Hong Kong Institutional Investors Jim Bianco Market Manipulation Paul Samuelson The Economist Volatility Warren Buffett Yuan

Via Finanz und Wirtschaft's Christoph Gisiger,

James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, expects more turmoil to come and warns that there will be no easy way out of zero interest rate policy.

The sigh of relief could be well heard on Wall Street. After days of heavy selling the stock market has calmed down somewhat at the end of last week. But according to Jim Bianco it’s too early for an all-clear signal. The influential market strategist from Chicago who is highly regarded among institutional investors expects equity prices to drop further. He’s also quite skeptical about the heavy-handed interventions of the authorities in China. With respect to the United States, he believes that there is going to be a massive liquidation in the oil patch.

Mr. Bianco, stocks have taken a big hit. Is the sharp drop in equity prices justified or is it an emotional overreaction?

There is an old line in the market, first coined by the economist Paul Samuelson. It says that the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions. There is some truth to that phrase. But I would also point out that predicting nine of the last five recessions is a much better track record than the consensus of economists. We wish they were that accurate, but they’re far worse. Every time the financial markets get volatile and messy like this it deserves attention because the markets are trying to tell us that there is a severe issue out there. It’s been coming from all over the place: We got a collapse in commodity prices and we got financial markets across the globe selling off, including in the United States. So I’m going to pay a lot of attention to it.
What are the markets so worried about?

Two things: First, what they are worried about is a global slowdown. It’s a global slowdown in manufacturing. You see it in commodity prices, you see it in the GDP numbers out of China and you see it in the manufacturing numbers in the United States.
And second?

The heavy-handedness of central planning is going to be a lot harder to get rid of than people think. The big difference between now and any other hard sell-off since the financial crisis is that the Fed is raising rates. In 2011 for instance, the markets sold off a lot harder than they did now. But what did it take to end it? The Federal Reserve gave us Operation Twist which was a precursor to QE3. Now, that the markets are selling off the Fed is raising rates. So it’s doing exactly the opposite. Warren Buffett has a line that you don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out. We don’t know how dependent markets are on central bank policy until they start to reverse it. And now, as the Fed starts to reverse it, we’re finding it out and it’s a bigger problem than we think.
Meanwhile China is trying to move heaven and earth to calm down the markets. Do you think China’s economy can avert a hard landing?

China is a communist country. They’re communists and when their economy started to misbehave and when their markets started to get upset they went right into their communist thinking. They started throwing speculators in jail and  billionaires turned out missing. But this is not the way you handle a volatile market. The incompetent mismanagement of the Chinese markets and economy by the Chinese government makes it even worse. And by making it worse they make people lose their confidence. So this gross mismanagement results in a loss of confidence in the Chinese government of the wealthy. That’s why you have a giant capital outflow out of China.
How concerning is this flight of capital?

No one disputes the capital outflow. But the innocuous, “so I don’t get thrown in the Gulag”-way of saying it is: “The volatility in the markets are scaring investors out of China.” What’s been happening in China in the last couple of weeks is that as the markets have gotten volatile they have stepped up their market interventions, including last Thursday intervening in the currency market with the largest amount of money they have intervened with in the last three years. They’re trying to hold the currency steady but Chinese stocks were still down 2% on that day. They’re trying to make us all believe that there is nothing to see here. But there is still a lot of stress. You see it in the collapse of the Hong Kong Dollar to its lowest level in twelve years.
Tensions are also high in the energy sector. What’s going to happen if oil hovers around $30?

In the oil industry you have misallocation of capital, in part by seven years of zero interest rates. Especially in the United States the energy sector was grossly overbuilt with horizontal drilling and fracking. A lot of those companies borrowed a lot of money and have put themselves into a bad place. They have no choice but to keep drilling. In July of 2014 the price of crude oil was $107 per barrel and the US was producing 8.4 million barrels per day. Today, with the price at around $30 production is 9.3 million barrels per day. So more oil. If these companies stop drilling, they’re out of business. But if they keep drilling they are going to drive the price so low that they’re going out of business, too. In the oil industry the phrase to describe what’s happening now is called “dead man drilling”. That pretty much sums it up.
How low can oil go?

At the heart of the collapse of the oil price has been a slowdown of demand. That’s why we’re seeing inventories around the world blown up to the highest level ever. So to get a real bottom in oil prices we need to take production out of the market. That’s an euphemistic way of saying that oil companies have to go away. There has to be massive liquidation. For that, the oil price doesn’t have to go any lower. It doesn’t need to go to $20 or $15. If in June the oil price is at $35 it will be still too low for most of these companies and it will do the damage. It needs to get into the high forties for the industry to have a chance to survive. At this point this means it has to go up almost 70%.
The fear of bankruptcies in the oil patch is putting a lot of pressure on high yield bonds. How dangerous could this get for the financial sector?

Part of this misallocation of money in the oil industry was that a lot of these companies bought into the high yield market, partly because the Federal Reserve drove yields down so low. That made it economical enough for a risky project like oil drilling to finance itself.  Today, energy is maybe 7% of the high yield market. But at the high of July 2014 it was around 20%. That’s what happens if you kill the market: It is no longer a big weighting in the market. But the problem is it was a big weighting. And now you’ve got chaos in the high yield sector driven largely by the error investors have made in energy.
So what are the ramifications of that?

Many experts pretend that this is no big deal. But the same experts also said subprime doesn’t matter, Greece doesn’t matter, the Yuan doesn’t matter or volatility in the stock market doesn’t matter. Well, some of those things mattered and some mattered a lot. This is the way all these crises have started. They always start with something you think is small and then they metastasize in ways you cannot begin to understand. This is going to impair everybody in the high yield market from borrowing. Everybody is going to pay a higher cost of capital because of the energy error in high yield. How much does it affect everybody? Well, tell me when it stops. I don’t know how much wider spreads on high yield bonds are going to get. But I think they’re going to continue to get wider. We’re not done yet.
Wider spreads on junk bonds are usually also a sign for trouble in the economy.  How robust is the economy in the United States?

Most economists will tell you that the US economy is okay and everything looks good. That is correct if you take a view backwards. But the market is telling you that from this moment forward things are maybe not as good as we think they are. Forward looking measures are not that good and one of the best forward looking measures are earnings which are terrible right now. So the question is: Is the marketplace telling us that going forward from here we should expect a different type of economy? The low interest rates on treasury bonds, the falling expectations for inflation that the tips market is showing us and the volatility in the stock markets makes me believe that the answer is yes. We should expect something different.
What does that mean for the Federal Reserve?

The Fed wanted to get out of the market manipulation game. They knew that QE didn’t work anymore for the economy. It just served to push up stocks and they didn’t want to be in that game. So a month ago they raised rates and they promised us that they were going to raise rates four times this year according to the dot chart. But nobody else believes that they are going to move four times. So the Fed has a very difficult choice in front of them: Do they cave to market expectations and then be forever branded as being reactionary to the financial markets. Or do they stick to their guns and then be branded as the people that caused undue market stress. There is no win in this situation. I don’t know which way they are going to go on this. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some kind of moderation out of the Fed so that they talk about less rate hikes.
What does all this mean for the outlook on the stock market?

Ironically, one of the better performing markets has been the S&P 500. The index had its low point on the 20th of January when it was down 14% from its peak. Nevertheless, it’s been performing a lot better than most of the other stock markets around the world, Most of them are down more than 20% which is the general definition of a bear market. I suspect that in the first half of this year the S&P 500 will get to  that, too. Maybe we’re ready to have a little bit of a relief rally over the next couple of days or a week. But we have yet to find a situation where the markets sells off for ten days real hard. So at the minimum we will revisit the lows of last Wednesday one more time.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 07:14:36 AM

Even The Wall Street Journal Is Worried About A Looming Recession
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/25/2016 14:40 -0500

Auto Sales BLS Dow Jones Industrial Average Janet Yellen New York Times Recession Unemployment Unemployment Claims Wall Street Journal

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

If the Wall Street Journal meant to reach for reassuring comfort, they fell far short. After spending late summer last year and into the fall proclaiming that manufacturing didn’t matter (12%), the newest round of talking points are “false positives.” In other words, manufacturing and industry does matter, after all, but just “not enough” to tip into full recession. That would seem to suggest some kind of balance on the plus side, but what they give us is actually the opposite.

The case for a downside is quite compelling, a point very grudgingly accepted in the article. In the truly forward-looking case, there are industrial production, corporate profits and the stock market (that latter is and has been dubious, but this is the Wall Street Journal).


On those three counts there is nothing but growing concern rather than “transitory” irrelevance.

Industrial production has declined in 10 of the past 12 months, and is now off nearly 2% from its peak in December 2014. Corporate profits peaked around the summer of 2014 and were off by nearly 5% as of the third quarter of last year, according to the Commerce Department. Stocks have fallen viciously so far this year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 7.6%, despite a rally late last week.
The economy is in much worse shape than just those, however, as the Journal makes no mention of the supply chain at any level other than production. That matters greatly because industrial production has already declined significantly (enough to suggest recession) without making the slightest difference in inventory. Retail sales just experienced the worst holiday season outside of 2008 and 2009 – and that includes auto sales. Wholesale sales continue to slump and inventory across the economy remains, despite production cuts to this point, elevated in the extreme.

These are truly forward-looking indications, where businesses will have no choice but to scale back now that “confidence” has been shaken enough to even dent the heretofore invulnerable stock market. The Journal dutifully reports the role of confidence in recession, being an organ of orthodox persuasion, after all. When confidence is lost in terms of rational expectations theory, that is saying something to an economist.

Again, however, the point of the article was clearly meant for encouragement. In transitioning to the “bright side”, it points out that false positives have occurred in the past with IP, profits and stocks; indeed they have, but in either 1986 or 1965 there wasn’t this tide of inventory, not even close (nor “dollar”, commodities crashing or very real global economic strain all tied together). But the real foundation of optimism is exactly what you would expect from economists:

On the bright side, the U.S. job market is perhaps the best recession indicator of all, and it isn’t flashing trouble.
In the past 50 years, every recession has seen the number of jobs in the economy decline by at least 1%. And jobs have never declined by that much outside of a recession.
Today, the number of jobs in the U.S. has been growing briskly—up 292,000 in December and up 2.7 million over the past year. This is why many economists remain confident the U.S. can avoid recession.
That’s it; false positives and the unemployment rate to balance out not just stocks but commodities, funding, and especially credit; not just corporate profits but actually revenue; not just industrial production but sales, trade and inventory. The US job market is not “perhaps the best recession indicator” at all because it is at best a lagging measure. It may not suggest that full-scale recession is in progress right now, but at the very least it tells us nothing about the immediate future. Even on its own terms, the purported level of job gains has failed to live up to itself for years now.

The very basis for this persistent over-optimism has been the BLS figures, both the Establishment Survey and the unemployment rate. Yet, despite robust numbers on either account we are in this mess already. And it was economists and their unemployment rate devotion who told us last year that the “best jobs market in decades” would almost guarantee nothing but the best for the rest of it. It was in many ways the entire basis for the assertions of “transitory.”

In viewing labor market statistics so very charitably, the Journal article points to one of its regular economists:

“I just don’t buy for a second the idea that U.S. households are so terrified by what’s happening that they’re going to behave like Germans and wean themselves off buying stuff,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, referencing the high-saving and low-consumption German economy.
Mr. Shepherdson has been very faithful to that interpretation of the unemployment rate for some time. Last April, he was quoted in the New York Times again suggesting that labor data in no way indicated any kind of rough economic future:

“The [jobless] claims numbers simply do not support the idea that the first quarter slowdown in growth is indicative of some underlying malaise in the economy,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
And in February 2015, Shepherdson was named the Wall Street Journal’s “most accurate economic forecaster in 2014” largely on the strength of what he said were interpretations of labor statistics. It isn’t surprising, however, that despite being given that honor by the Journal, Shepherdson’s expectations were still quite conventional in this same respect:

Like many economists, Mr. Shepherdson was too optimistic about overall economic growth. The ranking was based on a survey conducted in early January 2014, before it became obvious that a very harsh winter would cause economic activity to contract in the first quarter.
Based on his view of the labor market at that time, he was, like all economists, undeniably enamored by the idea of “transitory” being completely overwhelmed by this fountain of job growth:

What do the numbers say about 2015? Mr. Shepherdson is forecasting the real GDP will grow a blistering 3.7% in 2015 and the unemployment rate will end this year at 5.2%.
“When oil was at $100 [a barrel] I thought we would see more growth from capital spending,” he said. “Now with cheap oil, we will see more consumption and less capital spending, hurt by oil companies cutting back.”
After suggesting about a year ago that the labor market would push the economy up into a real growth trajectory because of jobs, after factoring a collapse in oil to that point no less, now that the economy is falling far, far short of that and may actually be in danger of recession he now claims that same labor statistic is enough for the economy to actually avoid it? If the unemployment rate was not nearly enough of a positive factor last year, why would it be this year after significant damage already taken and spreading?

I am in some ways being quite unfair to Mr. Shepherdson in singling him out as his view was shared widely by economists up and down the line, not any different than the views expressed by Janet Yellen and the FOMC. It is the backwards priorities of economics; to view all modeled outlooks as if “more real” than observed condition including market prices. Such Aristotelian process raises more questions than confidence, especially surrounding labor statistics. If the labor market is so robust, why are there no wage gains? To the orthodoxy, it’s not a puzzle but an article of faith; there have to be wage gains, just pushed off to some point in the future. Thus, no matter what happens right now, that future expectation is all that is meaningful in economics; every negative until that future is just “transitory.”

Like Mr. Shepherdson, I looked at unemployment claims last April and came to a far different conclusion.

That would further explain as to why Janet Yellen and the FOMC are so confused about the economy, as they view the Establishment Survey with all its adjustments and stochastic processes as hardened gospel, unchallenged as to whether past assumptions still apply. Despite the dynamic nature of the real world, after all made more so by the“neutral” efforts of the Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen complex, orthodox economics exists exclusively upon static assumptions, “laws” and “rules.”
If there is no longer a solidified link between jobless claims and the actual economic cycle, the FOMC and orthodox economists are relying, almost exclusively, upon a false signal. Again, that would expound on their “ability” to see an economy that no one else does, nor certainly not one of majority experience.
The weight of lackluster wages, increasingly dour spending and the spread of consumer irregularity suggested not a robust jobs market at all, but one increasingly divorced as a statistical regime. If there were actual job growth, then it would be easily observed someplace other than the unemployment rate. Instead, the Establishment Survey seemed to tick only with jobless claims, suggesting not a labor market trend in the real economy but more so a statistical anomaly devoid of historical circumstance with which to draw upon for a baseline (or benchmark).

A broad survey of the economy outside of the BLS jurisdiction suggested something very wrong with the mainline payroll estimates, and that they would become even more divergent than the actual economic conditions signaled by funding markets, then credit markets, then commodities markets and now stock markets. The jobs number became a meaningless and tortured imputation shorn of any relevant context. I think that still the most likely explanation as to how the labor market might seem so tantalizingly robust yet in only that one, very narrow place. It is uncorroborated all across the statistical spectrum of economic accounts; a feature that grows rather than conforms.

Last year was supposed to be “the” year because of faith in only the BLS’ numbers. It was advertised as full deliverance of the promises of QE and ZIRP, but instead 2015 delivered only recessionary impressions. That contrast is itself enough to call into great doubt the reliance on the unemployment rate and Establishment Survey for suggesting real economic circumstances and, more importantly, what is to come. Yet, as noted by this Journal article clearly meant to reassure, that is all that remains on that account. If all the optimists have left to stand upon is the unemployment rate, we are in much worse shape than even I thought.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 07:15:54 AM

美股反覆下跌 道指收跌208點
01月26日(二) 05:04   


材料及能源股顯著下跌,大型建築設備生產商卡特彼勒跌3.07美元,跌幅逾5%,是跌幅最大工業股,埃克森美孚、雪佛龍股價跌逾3%,美國銀行下挫4.4%,是去年9月以來最大單日跌幅。連鎖快餐店麥當勞公布第4季盈利升16%,至每股1.31美元,刺激股價做好,為道指收復部分失地。獲Johnson Controls Inc.收購的Tyco International股價急升12%。



Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 07:17:00 AM

01月26日(二) 03:39   



Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 07:33:46 AM

These charts show why investors should be worried
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The market’s recent bounce back from a brutal selloff may have some investors complacent. But one technician sees more trouble ahead for the markets.

“Indices are trying to carve out a bottom,” said Mark Newton, chief technical strategist at Greywolf Execution Partners. “The lows are near. However, the damage that's been done makes it look like there's a lot more volatility in store in the months ahead and we could have more downside into the fall.”

Newton bases it outlook on several charts, including those of the NYSE Composite (^NYA) Index, the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) Index, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT).

View gallery
.Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Unlike the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which is comprised of the largest publicly-traded U.S. companies, the NYSE Composite Index is made up of all the stocks trading at the New York Stock Exchange. “Why this is interesting is because this is very much a much more broad-based index than just looking at the S&P,” said Newton.
Both indices saw a bull market starting in 2009 and both faced major selloffs in January. But the NYSE Composite has broken below its August 2015 lows and remains there. That concerns Newton, who sees the 9,550 price as a key level. The index closed at 9,426.91 on Friday after a 2% rally.

“It's important that we regain that 9,500 level,” he said. “Failure to really get up back above these highs is going to suggest we likely have a little bit further to go into sometime this fall and get down at least down ... near 2011 highs which lies slightly down right above 8,000.”

View gallery
.Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Newton doesn’t see much of a direct, long-term relationship between U.S. and China’s markets. But the collapse in indices such as the Shanghai Composite beginning last summer led to uncertainty in global markets, including that of the United States.
An important technical support level for the Shanghai Composite is 2,800, according to Newton. That’s about 4% lower than Friday’s close.

“This level has already been tested once,” he said. “If it can hold that, potentially we can try to rally off this. But a break of that level could be far more negative for China.”

Should that happen, Newton predicts U.S. stocks will follow suit.

View gallery
.Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Another index showing concerning signals is the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Dow Theory, one of the oldest ones in technical analysis, holds that transportation and utility stocks should confirm rallies in industrial shares.
As Newton points out, the Dow Transports have underperformed the major market indices for well over a year. Similar to the NYSE Composite Index, the Transports broke a long-term trend line and also broke below its August 2015 lows.

“This caused some real acceleration on the downside,” Newton said. “It is an intermediate term negative with the Dow Jones Transports down now more than 20%. Structurally, having broken a six-year uptrend, it does suggest further weakness between now and the months of September and October which historically is when a lot of these markets tend to bottom out.”

View gallery
.Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Source: Mark Newton, Greywolf Execution Partners
Yet he sees a few signs of some near-term stabilization in the Transports, such as “hammer” formations in the index’s candlestick chart in the past week.
“A hammer pattern is when you have an extreme move to the downside but it rallies and recoups all that to close unchanged or slightly positive,” explained Newton.

“That’s really interesting given the fact that markets have become so oversold,” he said. “Pessimism has been on the rise. We've seen extreme bearish sentiment. And now the Dow Jones Transports, along with a lot of other indices, have suggested signs that things are starting to hold.”

For Newton, that means the market could stage an oversold bounce in the weeks ahead but the only way the rally would have legs would be if it the index broke back above its August 2015 lows of 7,458.99. The Transports closed at 6,778.54 on Friday.

“The longer-term view is a little bit more negative based on what happened,” he said. “We have seen some extreme trend damage that should lead to further weakness going forward over the next 6 to 8 months.”
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 26, 2016, 06:15:38 PM

2016-01-26 14:57     



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Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 27, 2016, 04:57:44 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 27, 2016, 05:43:03 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 27, 2016, 06:53:09 AM

Don’t expect dovish sentiment from the Fed

By Greg Robb
Published: Jan 26, 2016 8:58 a.m. ET

Fed will stick to forecast of steady growth and rate hikes despite market sell-off
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen at her last news conference in Washington
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Despite the volatile financial markets since the turn of the year, Federal Reserve officials will stick to their guns this week and repeat their confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the economy, thus keeping the door open for rate hikes beginning as early as March.

“There is a good chance the January statement will be less dovish than market participants hope,” said Michael Hanson, economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Fed officials will brave the snow and gather for two days of talks on Tuesday and Wednesday and release a policy statement at the conclusion at 2 p.m. Eastern.

Read more: Monster storm to make life difficult for Fed

Staying the course is seen as the most attractive policy option as it is still too soon to know whether the decline in the U.S. stock market is signalling something different about the outlook.

“They are not going to make a fundamental reassessment of economic prospects of the U.S. based on 14 trading days,” said Chris Probyn, chief economist for State Street Global Advisors in an interview.

“It is too early to admit defeat,” agreed Ellen Zentner, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, in a research note.

The general view of economists is that the market is too focused on the decline in the price of oil and weakness in China.

They note the U.S. labor market has been strong, and consumer spending has been chugging along.

That’s not to say there are no pessimists around.

For instance, Komal Sri Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, said that the market is signalling the Fed that its December rate hike was a mistake and the central bank will be forced to reverse course later this year.

A rate hike in January was not expected even before the market sell-off.

After the U.S. central bank hiked rates in December for the first time in almost a decade, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen stressed that the pace of rate hikes would be “gradual.” For practical-minded market participants, this immediately translated into a firm no-rate-hike-in-January consensus.

The next Fed meeting is set for March 15-16. It will remain a “live” meeting even after the Fed’s new statement is released, Hanson of Bank of America said.

Fed officials have penciled in four rate hikes this year, but the market now sees only one move.

Read more: Market barely expects Fed to hike once this year.

Traders who bet on Fed moves now see September as the first meeting with greater than a 50% chance of a rate hike.

Probyn said that is one reason the Fed will stay the course.

“They’ve got their work cut out for them,” trying to get market expectations more in line with the Fed’s own views about the likely path of rates, he said.

The U.S. central bank is likely to tweak the policy statement to give it “a more sober tone,” Zentner said.

But key parts of the statement will remain unchanged. For instance, the Fed is likely to repeat that the risks to the outlook are balanced, despite the storm clouds from the volatile market.

However vague the Fed statement, the central bank won’t be able to avoid difficult questions for long. Yellen is set to testify about monetary policy to Congress on Feb. 10-11.

She won’t be able to duck the question about how the market has turned sour in the wake of the Fed’s first rate hike.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 27, 2016, 06:54:40 AM

S&P 500’s dead-cat bounce remains underway

By Michael Ashbaugh
Published: Jan 26, 2016 12:21 p.m. ET

Focus: Gold sustains a breakout, GLD, QQQ, XLF, IYT
Editor’s Note: This is a free edition of The Technical Indicator, a daily MarketWatch subscriber newsletter. To get this column each market day, click here.

The U.S. markets’ recovery attempt remains underway with Tuesday’s firmly higher start.

Still, the January bounce remains technically lackluster — as measured by volume and breadth — and the rally attempt’s sustainability remains an open question.

Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S&P 500’s SPX, +1.41%  hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.

As illustrated, the S&P rallied from 23-month lows, thus far stalling near the 1,900 mark, matching its first notable resistance.

On further strength, the S&P’s 10% correction mark holds around 1,920 (not illustrated) and is followed by significant overhead at 1,950.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.78%  has staged a lukewarm rally from the January low.

From current levels, the 15,980 area remains an inflection point, better illustrated on the daily chart, and is followed by resistance at last week’s high of 16,172.

More broadly, the Dow’s first significant overhead rests just under the 16,600 mark.

And the Nasdaq Composite’s COMP, +1.09%  near-term backdrop is slightly stronger.

Consider that its breakdown point rests at 4,517 — better illustrated below — and the index closed Monday just one point higher.

Looking ahead, gap resistance rests at 4,540, and is followed by last week’s high, just above 4,590.

On further strength, the Nasdaq’s next significant resistance rests at its two-week range top of 4,714.

Widening the view to six months adds perspective.

On this wider view, the index has reclaimed its breakdown point — Nasdaq 4,517 — an area that pivots to support.

It’s traversing less-charted territory, capped by notable overhead slightly above the 4,700 mark.

Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has whipsawed from the low.

As detailed previously, the 15,980 area remains an inflection point, and is followed by last week’s high, around 16,170.

More broadly, the January breakdown has inflicted major damage, and an extended basing period would be expected before the next durable leg higher. The Dow’s first notable overhead rests just under the 16,600 mark, better illustrated on the hourly chart.

And the S&P 500 has staged a shaky, but thus far successful, test of the August low.

Consider that last week’s closing low held at 1,859 — just eight points lower — and the S&P subsequently reversed respectably.

The bigger picture
The U.S. markets’ recovery attempt remains underway with Tuesday’s firmly higher start.

Still, the January bounce has been technically unimpressive — at least thus far — and the rally attempt’s sustainability remains an open question.

Moving to the small-caps, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF has rallied from 30-month lows.

Still, the initial reversal has been flat, fueled by decreased volume. First resistance rests at last week’s high, around 101.60, and is followed by the October 2014 low, just above 103.50.

A close higher would mark technical progress, opening the path to the small-cap benchmark’s breakdown point.

Similarly, the SPDR S&P MidCap 400 has staged a flattish, light-volume lift from the low.

Near-term resistance holds around 234.50, and a close higher would extend the mid-cap benchmark’s rally attempt.

More broadly, consider that the MDY is teetering on its 200-week moving average, while the IWM has violated its corresponding 200-week moving average. Each benchmark’s last sustained posture under these trending indicators concluded in September 2010.

Meanwhile, the SPDR Trust S&P 500 SPY, -0.46%  has rallied from 23-month lows.

Here again, its reversal has been comparably flat versus the initial breakdown, punctuated by decreased volume.

Separately, consider that resistance rests at 190.73 (the Sept.1 low), and the SPY topped last week just three cents higher. This area remains the immediate hurdle.

And returning to the S&P 500’s three-year view highlights a headline issue. Each bar on the chart above represents one week.

Recall that major support spans from the August low of 1,867, to its former weekly closing low of 1,886.

The S&P closed Monday at 1,877 — within the support band — and broadly speaking, this area defines an important bull-bear battleground.

Against this backdrop, a corrective bounce is underway, though it continues to lack quality as measured by volume and breadth. Sustainability, and meaningful upside follow-through, remain an open question.

Beyond corrective bounces, the S&P 500’s longer-term bias supports a firmly bearish view pending technical repairs. An eventual rally atop the 1,950 resistance, and more distant overhead spanning from 1,981 to 1,993, would mark technical progress.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s next policy directive is due out Wednesday, and the markets’ response should add color to the backdrop.

Tuesday’s Watch List
The charts below detail names that are technically well positioned. These are radar screen names — sectors or stocks poised to move in the near term. For the original comments on the stocks below, see The Technical Indicator Library.

Drilling down further, the SPDR Gold Trust GLD, +1.14%  is acting well technically.

Consider that gold started the year with a breakout, knifing atop well-defined resistance and the 50-day moving average.

It’s subsequently sustained its gains, drawing buyers near first support. The GLD’s breakout point rests at 104, and its technical bias supports a bullish view barring a violation.

Meanwhile, the PowerShares QQQ ETF QQQ, -0.57%  remains a source of relative strength. The group has maintained its range bottom, an area matching the September low.

Still, its violation of the 200-day moving average was fueled by a sustained volume spike, while the ensuing rally attempt has been flat, driven by decreased volume. The QQQ’s technical bias is currently neutral to bearish-leaning, and the shares remain vulnerable to an incremental leg lower.

Consider that its breakdown point closely matches the major moving averages, and a close higher would strengthen the bull case.

Looking elsewhere, the Financial Select Sector SPDR XLF, -0.24%  has broken down technically.

And notably, the XLF notched a 23-month closing low on Monday, its worst since February 2014.

More plainly, the initial rally attempt has not only been flat, the group has extended its downturn on a closing basis. Significant resistance rests at its breakdown point (22.05), and a close higher would mark an early step toward stabilization.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the transports have paced the broad-market downdraft.

As illustrated, the iShares Transportation Average ETF IYT, +2.38%  has plunged to its worst levels since October 2013.

The group’s breakdown also stands out on the weekly chart, and though due a corrective bounce, its longer-term bias points lower. Consider that the transports’ persistent weakness — even amid crude oil’s pronounced slide — supports a bearish broad-market view.

Modest resistance rests at 123.30, and a close higher would mark near-term progress.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 28, 2016, 04:49:30 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 28, 2016, 05:35:19 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 28, 2016, 06:41:34 AM

Stocks fall as Fed acknowledges worry, but keeps rate hike on table

By Anora Mahmudova and Sara Sjolin
Published: Jan 27, 2016 4:21 p.m. ET

Leaves rates unchanged, monitoring market turbulence
Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve are in focus on Wednesday
U.S. stocks fell Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left the door open to a March rate increase despite acknowledging that “economic growth slowed” since its last meeting in December.

“Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term,” the Fed said in new, more cautious language, that some saw as a suggestion the central bank won’t be quick to raise interest rates again. But others saw the Fed refusing to rule out a move as early as March after paying lip service to increased global market turmoil and reiterating that it saw downside pressure on inflation as unlikely to last.

Read the text of the Federal Reserve decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

“The makers of monetary policy were not as dovish as the markets would have liked to see, although the committee did include that they are monitoring global economic and financial developments, said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, in emailed comments. “However they also maintained the notion that the things keeping inflation from returning to their 2% target are transitory.”

“The result is an equity market that has little to be optimistic over,” he said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.38% which was up 150 points at session highs, fell 222.77 points, or 1.4% to close at 15,944.64. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.09%  declined 20.68 points, or 1.1%, to settle at 1,882.95, led by a 2.5% fall in tech stocks.

Large losses from corporate heavyweights Apple Inc. and Boeing Company after disappointing earnings accounted for much of the drop in the Dow industrials.

Shares of Dow industrials component Boeing Inc. BA, -8.93% sank 9.8% after the plane maker gave 2016 guidance that fell short of Wall Street expectations, while Apple Inc. AAPL, -6.57% another component, fell 6.6%. Apple late Tuesday said iPhone sales grew at the slowest pace since the handset’s introduction in 2007.

Opinion: Here’s why the news about Apple is so bad

As Apple’s share price drops, Alphabet Inc. GOOG, -1.83% GOOGL, -2.21%   is closing the gap in stock-market value and could soon challenge for the crown of world’s most valuable company.

The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.18%  lost 99.51 points, or 2.2%, to finish at 4,468.17. Among hardest hit shares were biotechnology stocks, with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB, -3.08%  finishing down 3.1%.

“There is simply not a lot of optimism among big institutional investors this year. Every rally so far has been an opportunity to sell and overall sentiment is bad,” said Michael Antonelli, equity sales trader at R.W Baird & Co.

Recent market selloffs had been triggered by concerns over slowing growth in China and precipitous falls in commodity prices.

“Investors are perhaps thinking that problems in China and Europe are not temporary and will not be fixed easily,” Antonelli said.

U.S. crude oil futures CLH6, +2.26% which were lower in the morning, rebounded to settle 2.7% higher at $32.33 a barrel on Wednesday after news reports that Russia and OPEC discussed production cuts. Oil prices have been extremely volatile over the past few months, setting the tone in stock and bond markets. However, on Wednesday, for the first time since December, a rally in oil prices did not translate into a rally in stocks.

In other economic news Wednesday, sales of new homes rebounded handily in December, a signal of continued strength in the housing market. However, markets appeared to ignore economic data releases.

Apple: iPhone sales grew at slowest pace ever(1:49)
Apple said iPhone sales grew at the slowest pace since its introduction in 2007 and forecast revenue declining in the current quarter, its first such drop since 2003.

Movers and shakers: The earnings season continues at full speed on Wednesday.

Biogen Inc. BIIB, +5.15% jumped 5.2% after the biotech company’s fourth-quarter profit and sales beat expectations.

Caterpillar Inc. CAT, -1.42%  slumped 1.4% Wednesday, after the agricultural equipment maker reported sharp declines in machine sales in December.

Shares in VMware Inc. VMW, -9.82%  lost 9.8%, even after the software company’s earnings topped Wall Street estimates late Tuesday and made good on reports of layoffs.

Other markets: The dollar traded lower against most other major currencies with the ICE Dollar Index DXY, -0.10%  off 0.6% while Treasury yield tumbled after the Federal Reserve took a more dovish tone in its policy statement.

Asian markets closed mostly higher, although China’s Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -0.52%  ended with losses yet again. European stocks SXXP, +0.31%  closed mixed.

Gold settled lower ahead of the conclusion of the Fed meeting, but later regained ground in electronic trade as markets reacted to the statement.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 28, 2016, 06:43:59 AM

Fed Back-Pedals Hawkishness, Hints At Policy Error: "Monitoring Global Developments", Admits "Growth Slowed Last Year"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/27/2016 15:01 -0500

headlines Market Conditions Monetary Policy Steve Liesman

Surging bonds and bullion and slumping stocks was not what Janet had in mind so she had some 'splaining to do. Hopes for a "passive hawkish" note appear to be met as confirmation of dismal data dependence offers just enough dovishness for the stock bulls and just enough hawkishness for economy bulls.

Treading a fine line between losing all credibility and exposing their total devotion to the stock market, it appears The Fed is maintaining its delusion that everything will be fine as they unwind the largest and most experimental monetary policy of all time, and yet for the first time we get proof that the Fed admits it made an error by hiking into a slowing economy: "labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year.

Pre-Fed: S&P Futs 1901.75, 10Y 2.04%, Gold $1115, WTI $31.95, EUR1.0875

Before the statement hit, rate odds this year were as follows:


Since the last meeting - and the historic rate hike - things have not panned out for The Fed...


Nanex explains the liquidity situation right before the statement:


Further headlines:

Except that is a total lie..


Here's why!!

*  *  *

Full Redline Statement below:

There was some verbal "normalization" in the statement, which at 558 words had the fewest words since the July statement
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 29, 2016, 04:49:35 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 29, 2016, 05:36:56 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 29, 2016, 07:02:06 AM

01月29日(五) 03:52   

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 30, 2016, 04:56:02 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 30, 2016, 05:37:01 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 30, 2016, 08:27:11 AM

Opinion: This reliable indicator says we’re in a bear market for stocks

By Mark Hulbert
Published: Jan 29, 2016 5:12 a.m. ET

Margin debt is heading lower, suggesting bearishness is setting in

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — One of the darkest clouds on Wall Street’s horizon is declining margin debt.

I’m referring to the total amount investors borrow to purchase stocks, which historically has risen during bull markets and fallen during bear markets. And that’s what is so ominous: The New York Stock Exchange reports that total margin debt hit its peak last April, and is now nearly 10% lower, as you can see from the chart above. (Note that the latest data is from December; January’s total will undoubtedly be lower.)

In fact, according to research conducted by Norman Fosback, the former president of the Institute for Econometric Research and current editor of Fosback’s Fund Forecaster, a good long-term indicator can be created by comparing total margin debt with its 12-month moving average. “If the current level of margin debt is above the 12-month average, the series is deemed to be in an uptrend, margin traders are buying, and stock prices should continue upwards,” Fosback wrote in his investment textbook “Stock Market Logic.”

“By the same line of reasoning, sell signals are rendered when the current monthly reading is below the 12-month average. This is evidence of stock liquidation by margin traders, a phenomenon which usually spurs prices downward.”

Fosback introduced this indicator to clients in the mid-1970s, based on research extending back to 1942. He calculated that there is an 85% probability that a bull market is in progress when the indicator is bullish, in contrast to only a 41% probability when the indicator is bearish.

This indicator acquitted itself well in the 2007-2009 bear market: Total margin debt hit its peak in July 2007, three months prior to the bull market peak that year (which occurred Oct. 9). And it dropped below its 12-month moving average in December of that year, and stayed below until the summer of 2009, early in the bull market that began in March of that year.

Four stocks that are too cheap(4:17)
The indicator didn’t do quite as well during the 2011 bear market, which according to the calendar compiled by Ned Davis Research, lasted from April 29 through Oct. 4. Though total margin debt that year did indeed hit its high in April, it didn’t drop below its 12-month moving average until August.

It’s also important to acknowledge that the indicator sometimes sounds false alarms. One such time came in January of last year, when total margin debt briefly dipped below its 12-month moving average before quickly climbing back on top. Even so, however, the indicator might not be considered a total failure, since the broad stock market today is 10% lower than where it stood when I announced the bear market signal in an early-March column.

In any case, unlike the early-2015 dip below the 12-month moving average that lasted for just one month, margin debt currently has been below its trend line for five straight months. It therefore is sounding a strong alarm today
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 30, 2016, 08:28:59 AM

Why 2016 keeps getting uglier for US economy
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
5 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

When it comes to economic growth, 2016 is looking a lot like 2015 — and probably even worse.

Friday's report showing that gross domestic product grew just 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter brought to a conclusion another year of dashed hopes for economic liftoff — "escape velocity," as it is sometimes called.

Seven years of zero interest rates, $3.7 trillion worth of Fed money printing and more than $6 trillion piled onto the public debt resulted in an economy still struggling to break 2.5 percent full-year growth. In fact, if the first reading on GDP holds up on revision, the U.S. economy will have expanded just 2.4 percent for the full year, according to the Commerce Department.

At the start of 2015, most economists expected U.S. growth of 3 percent or better, predicated on sizable gains in consumer spending, business investment and construction. Instead, the year featured consumers mostly hanging onto their gas savings, weak capital expenditures (including a decline of 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter) and slumping oil prices battering investment instead of lifting spending.

Read MoreBuy stocks when everyone's miserable: CEO
Looking ahead, the early indicators are not good, with chances of a recession gaining more traction on Wall Street.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
While many of the latest economic numbers, including the GDP reading, are a pretty good distance from recession, troubles are brewing in some less obvious places.

Most notably, the bond market has been screaming recession for weeks.

Spreads on high-yield bonds have widened beyond 800 basis points (8 percentage points), gaps that for the past 30 years always have presaged either a recession or "growth scare," according to Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors.

The high-yield market is pricing in a 9 percent default rate, something akin to the 1990 recession, a comparatively shallow downturn that nevertheless helped sink President George H.W. Bush's re-election bid in 1992. Standard & Poor's said its current corporate bond distress level of 29.6 percent is at its highest level since July 2009. S&P said it downgraded 165 issuers in the fourth quarter compared with just 38 upgrades.

Read MoreGoldman: Recession fear overblown, 11% gain on way
The plunge in oil prices is spreading a deflationary reaction across the fixed income market, with Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities funds seeing their biggest outflows in 33 weeks last week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Fed officials have insisted the current inflation retreat is based on "transitory" factors like the oil bear market, but the market isn't a believer, reflected in part by the exodus from inflation protection in fixed income.

In fact, the market-Fed divide is growing at a rapid pace.

The Federal Open Market Committee at its December meeting indicated there likely would be four hikes in its interest rate target in 2016. Traders, though, are pricing in almost no chance of a move this year, with the first better-than even possibility for February 2017 and the first increase not fully priced in until June 2017. That's a huge communication gap the Fed will have to find a way to bridge at its March meeting, which was supposed to see a rate hike that now is almost certain not to happen.

For the Fed to move forward on a rate-hiking cycle, or to do any policy normalization during 2016, a good deal would have to change.

Read More Fed vs. the market: 'Tension is fairly evident'
Goldman Sachs reported Thursday evening that its analyst index of economic indicators is at its lowest level since mid-2012. The most recent decline was fueled by drops in sales, exports and manufacturing in general. More importantly, Goldman reported that indicators for future activity are "quite low," an indication of "softer business activity to start 2016."

At the same time, Thursday's durable goods shock (a 5.1 percent decline) led Deutsche Bank to conclude that even its modest 1.8 percent GDP growth rate for 2016 may be too ambitious.

"The risks to our growth and interest rate projections are distinctly to the downside," Deutsche said in a note to clients.

Of course, a falling market and weak economy are not necessarily poison to stocks.

The disappointing GDP data in the U.S. was drowned out almost completely by news that the Bank of Japan instituted negative interest rates in hopes of resuscitating its own moribund economy. Wall Street rallied on the view that more currency debasement in Asia would add another layer of pressure to the Fed to avoid tightening policy.

And Fundstrat's Lee, a relentless stock market bull, points out that negative years for junk bonds, such as 2015, are historically followed by great years for stocks, with the average annual return of 22 percent for the S&P 500.

The main danger to that outlook, of course, is recession. JPMorgan is pricing in a 22 percent chance of a recession, while BofAML said the risk is about 20 percent — both figures fairly close to their historical norm for any year.

"Headwinds from an appreciating dollar, transitioning Chinese economy and inventory overhang are weighing on growth. We can see the impact of this slowdown in the industrial-sector data," BoAML said in a note. "However, leading indicators of economic activity suggest only a slowdown, not a downturn or recession.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 30, 2016, 08:33:54 AM

A month to forget: Biggest losers in January turmoil
Holly Ellyatt   | @HollyEllyatt
13 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

So much for the New Year heralding optimism and a brand new start for markets: Major indices around the world have been through a tumultuous month in January with single to double-digit declines to show for it.

Concerns over a slowdown in China's economic growth, a renewed fall in oil prices that saw the price of a barrel of benchmark Brent fall below $30 and general market uncertainty about central bank monetary policy have all shaken global investors.

China's stocks rebounded on Friday but the market is still on track to post its biggest monthly fall since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009 following marked volatility earlier this month. The Shanghai composite is down 22.65 percent since the start of the year and China's CSI300 index has also declined around a similar amount.

Read MoreAsian stocks steeply lower after China suspends trade early
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Meanwhile in Asian economic powerhouse Japan, there was volatile trade on Friday after the Bank of Japan decided to extend its monetary stimulus program by introducing a negative interest rate policy. The Nikkei 225, which was down 0.6 percent before the announcement, surged as much as 3.51 percent soon after, before tumbling as much as 1 percent. It then surged to close up 2.80 percent. Since the start of 2016, Japan's Nikkei is down 7.96 percent, however.

Bank of Japan adopts negative interest rate policy
Europe has not been immune to the tumult with oil prices playing the dominant role in declines over the last month,

There is also reason to hope for a better start to February, however, as oil prices are set for their fourth straight session of gains. Global benchmark Brent crude futures rose on Friday, having moved 6.5 percent higher so far this week, buoyed by hopes that oil-producing countries could come to some kind of deal to tackle a glut in supply.

While the price of a barrel of Brent at $34 and U.S. crude at $33.45 on Friday might be cold comfort for oil producers, particularly those in the U.S. who have higher production costs, the rebound has appeared to buoy markets in Europe, offering a reprieve from the declines seen mid-month when Brent futures hit an intraday low of $27.10.

Despite all the market volatility and concerns over oil prices, London's FTSE index – down almost 5 percent since the start of the year -- has not suffered as much as its German counterpart, the DAX, which has declined 10 percent in January.

Germany's significant export exposure to China fueled the selloff – the country's key automotive industry was the biggest contributor to exports in 2014 but Volkswagen and BMW sales have started to slow, not helped by the emissions scandal that has engulfed the former. For the EU as a whole, China was the EU's second-biggest trade partner in 2015.

Meanwhile, France's CAC index has lost 6.7 percent this month. France exports products such as luxury goods and aircraft to China.

As markets in the U.S. were poised to open for the last trading day of the month, futures pointed to a higher open on Wall Street as traders anticipated the release of fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, despite fears of a weaker-than-expected 0.8 percent growth.

U.S. stocks could do with a boost. The S&P 500 is down 7.4 percent this month, but the heaviest losses have been seen on the tech-heavy index, the Nasdaq, which has declined 10 percent this year so far.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on January 30, 2016, 08:38:14 AM

"Reset" Or "Recession"?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/29/2016 13:40 -0500

Bear Market Capital Repatriation China Ethan Harris Housing Starts Japan Nikkei OPEC Real estate Recession Unemployment Unemployment Claims Yen

Following years of QE-inspired excess returns, investors in 2016 suddenly find themselves embroiled in a broad and brutal bear market. As BofAML's Michael Hartnett notes, the 10-year rolling return loss from commodities (-5.1%) is currently the worst since 1938...

Oil peak-to-trough -80% past four years, EM currencies trading 15% below their 2009 lows, yield on US HY bonds up from 5% to 10% in past 18 months, and equal-weighted US stock index down 25% from recent highs...

1470 global stocks (59% of the MSCI ACWI) are down >20% from their peak, and 913 are down >30% from their recent highs.

“Reset” or “Recession”?

In our view, the pertinent question for investors is whether the current bear market represents a healthy “reset” of both profit expectations and equity and credit valuations, or more ominously, the onset of a broader economic malaise that will require a major policy intervention in coming months to reverse.

The reset view:

The BofAML base case veers more toward the “reset” view and runs as follows:

On profits: lower trend GDP growth (Ethan Harris recently revised his forecast for US trend growth down from 2.0% to 1.75%), at a time of historically high profit to GDP levels, is inconsistent with the further strong advance that the consensus has penciled in the EPS (for example, consensus forecasts US EPS to rise 20% in the next 24 months would leave profits/GDP close to an all-time high – Chart 4); investor disbelief has caused the multiple to fall back in-line with its historical averages.

On policy: the Fed is likely to be as dovish as it needs to be to keep the economy and markets moving forward; the ECB and BoJ will do more; and the bear market "canaries in the coalmine", the oil price and the US$, have recently stabilized thanks to Fed hesitancy on rates and hopes that OPEC will cut supply.

On positioning: investors have already reset positioning… cash levels are high, uber-crowded longs in peripheral Euro-area debt, Euro-area banks, NKY, FANG stocks have been spanked; as is capitulation in "Illiquid" yield plays (EMB, HY, MLPs). Using the S&P 500 as our risk proxy, multiples have thus already adjusted from a peak of 17.2X, to 15.2X; using a historical average multiple of 14.4X, and leaving EPS levels broadly unchanged thus leaves investors with a reset target of 1795 (Table 4), which should act as a rough entry point for investors looking to add risk.

The Recession view:

The recession view remains a more minority view. But it is nonetheless a big risk and, should it come to pass, would be expected to elicit a major policy response. The recession view runs as follows:

On profits: the 4C’s of China, Commodities, Credit, Consumer are all likely to deteriorate further, pushing the ISM index below 45, cementing recession expectations; China exports, China capital flows, a weak supply response from oil producers, as well as the reduced ability of corporations to issue debt to buyback stocks can all conspire to take economic data lower; in particular, the US consumer weakens (initial unemployment claims rise above 300k, US housing starts fall below 1 million, small business confidence falls below 95).

On policy: Quantitative Failure becomes more visible...since Japan expanded ETF purchases Dec 18th the Yen is +1.9%, Nikkei -10.3%; since ECB cut rates Dec 3rd the Euro is -0.1%, Euro Stoxx 600 -10.0%; since Fed hiked on Dec 16th the S&P 500 is -8.7%, 2yr yields are -18bps, 10yr yields -31bps; investors reduce exposure to risk assets in order to provoke a reversal of Fed policy (as was the case in 1937) or a bolder coordinated policy response (Chart 5).

On positioning: investors still OW stocks; a China/EM/oil/commodity "event" yet to create "entry point" into distressed assets; the long US$ trade yet to be unwound via a short-end collapse/Fed priced-out; and private clients are not yet in risk-off mode; in addition, the bid to global risk assets from Sovereign Wealth Funds falls sharply (there is currently $7.2tn in AUM at global SWFs, $4.4tn directly from commodity-producing countries), as capital repatriation back to distressed oil-producing countries reduce the bid for US Treasuries, prime real estate in London, New York, Geneva, luxury goods and services, hotels and "trophy assets" around the world (e.g. English Premier League and European football clubs – Table 5).

The recession result? Again using the S&P 500 as a risk barometer, in a recessionary scenario where EPS falls 10% and PE contracts 20% peak-to-trough, a target for SPX would be 1575-1600
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 01, 2016, 05:47:24 AM

JPMorgan slashes outlook for stocks, citing Fed's 'diverging pressures'
Brian Price   | @CNBCPrice
1 Hour Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Is growth for U.S. equities in serious jeopardy thanks to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies?

JPMorgan Chase says yes. Among Wall Street's largest banks, the firm now has the most bearish position on the S&P 500 Index. Having previously ended 2015 with an S&P price target of 2,200, JPMorgan recently cut that number to 2,000.

Citing poor earnings, the banks believes stocks will continue to stall in the new year. To date, a third of the S&P 500 has reported negative growth in both earnings and revenue.
Last week, JPMorgan's head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategies Dubravko Lakos-Bujas told CNBC's "Fast Money" that the Fed was the primary impetus behind bank's call. "We've had diverging pressures from the central bank and a Fed that's trying to tighten while the rest of the world is trying to ease," he said.

"The more that the Fed tries to tighten, it pressures the dollar upwards and it pressures commodity prices lower," he added.

Marc Faber
Dr. Doom: Not another bull market in my lifetime
Liz Ann Sonders
Panicky sellers will be sorry: Schwab strategist

The brutal start to the year, one of the worst in history, has sent Wall Street bears on a rampage and mauled major benchmarks. On Friday, the S&P was down 5.1 percent for its worst month since August 2015, and its worst January since 2009.
The uncertain global economy has made an increasing number of observers worry about the Fed making a policy mistake by hiking interest rates.

With what could be described as a hawish policy, Lakos-Bujas feels the Fed is fueling the potential for an earnings recession, and that the risk-reward for equities could deteriorate. Fearing more volatility, he's hoping for a change in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's approach. "If the Fed takes a more dovish view, I think it will provide a relief [for the U.S. economy]," he said.
As Fed policy for 2016 continues to develop, Lakos-Bujas is keeping expectations low.

"As far as this quarter is concerned, we're calling for anywhere from a 2-3 percent earnings surprise. Buyback activity is likely going to start picking up as late January to early December was a quitter period," the analyst said. "So all of these elements in the short-term might support equities." Additionally, he noted that nearly 70 percent of earnings reports have come in above estimates.
However, Lakos-Bujas was quick to mention that this data is overshadowed by concerns for the next three to six months.

As it stands, stocks have been down on the final trading day in each of the past three months, as well as down in ten of the past twelve months. JPMorgan has cited multiple hurdles to the outlook, including widening credit spreads, a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, and a struggling U.S. manufacturing sector as reasons for more pain to come.

In his coverage, Lakos-Bujas said that the "U.S. manufacturing sector is already in recession territory and that the non-manufacturing sector continues to decelerate."

Despite these risks, Lakos-Bujas did not call for a new crisis. A recession "is a possibility, but I wouldn't say that. I would more so say that [there's] concern over a bear market. With the S&P around 1,900 right now, that could mean we maybe see 1,700 at some point.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 01, 2016, 05:55:16 AM

Forget About "Stocks For The Long Run"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/31/2016 10:40 -0500

Bear Market ETC Japan Meltdown Robert Shiller Volatility

Submitted by Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners (annotated by's Pater Tenebrarum),

No Shame in Cash

After a year of wandering the globe, we are back in the homeland… and ready to turn in our passport. Travel can be fun. It can also be “broadening.” But the most interesting thing about it is not so much what you find out about other places. It’s what you discover about your home.

You return to the land you once knew, as T.S. Eliot put it, and know it for the first time. So, we are ready to rediscover Baltimore – a place where children refer to handguns as “school supplies.”


back-to-school sale-1

The new school year begins in Baltimore…


But, let’s move on. First, we return to questions put to us in Mumbai two days ago.

“What should an investor do?” asked an old man in a Nehru jacket.

“Should I stay in the stock market? After all, staying in the stock market always seems to pay off over the long term. Or should I move to gold and cash?”

We have been telling people there is “no shame in staying in cash” until the market finds a bottom. If we’re wrong and prices shoot upward, we will miss the upside. But the risk of missing substantial gains seems slight. Earnings are going down. Almost all the signals from industry and commerce seem to be pointing down, too.

Meanwhile, U.S. stocks are still expensive. The CAPE ratio looks at the inflation-adjusted average of the previous 10 years of earnings relative to stock prices. On that basis, the S&P 500 has been a worse deal only three times in the last 100 years. Those were just before the 1929 Crash… the dot-com bust in 2000… and right before the 2008 meltdown – hardly auspicious precedents.



Where we are: the current PE/10 is in the 92nd percentile of market valuations since 1871 – exceeded only by 1919, 2007 and 2000.


Not only that, but also global debt levels are higher today than ever in history. Wouldn’t it make sense to stay in cash… on the sidelines… until prices go down and debt issues are resolved?


March to Hell

Not according to the newsletter writers at The Motley Fool. The Fool’s Matthew Frankel gives us “three reasons you shouldn’t worry about the stock market in 2016.”

“Don’t panic,” he goes on. The late Richard Russell, of Dow Theory Letters, taught us there are short cycles and long cycles. The long cycles are the ones that count. You can miss a rally now and then; it won’t make much difference. But miss a major, long-term bull market, and you have missed an opportunity of a lifetime.

On the other hand, riding through a major bear market can seem like a march to Hell. The worst thing that can happen, Russell used to say, is that you take a “ruinous loss” – one you can never recover from.

Major market swings take time. The Dow reached a peak in 1929. It didn’t regain that peak again until the late 1950s. Since then, we’ve cycled through booms and busts, reaching the latest top in 2015, when the Dow rose over 18,000.


2-DJIA - 1920-1956-ann

The DJIA from 1920 to 1956 – in nominal terms, the average only regained its 1929 peak level in 1954. Apart from a short time in the 1950s-1960s, it only got back to its 1929 valuation in real terms in the mid 1990s. The vast bulk of the stock market’s nominal gains are simply a reflection of monetary inflation – click to enlarge.


The questions to ask yourself: Where are we now? Have we passed the top? Are we in a long decline? Then there are the personal questions: How long will you live? When will you need the money? How much volatility can you withstand?

Although top to top is a long time, it can also take a long time just to break even. The 1929 high was not reached again until 1956 – 27 years later. In Japan, they’re still waiting to recover half the losses from the crash of 1989 – 26 years on. How would you feel about waiting until 2042 before we return to last year’s high?



Whenever someone tells you that “stocks always go to new highs in the long run”, be sure to ask for a precise definition of “long run”, because it can sometimes be a lot longer than you’d expect – click to enlarge.


No Mountain Left to Climb

The other thing to realize is that the long-term performance of the stock market is mostly a myth. Yes, you could have made about 10% a year if you’d gotten in 100 years ago and stayed in. But that figure is subject to some important qualifications.

First, you don’t really make a steady 10% a year. That’s just what you get when you go back and average out your annual gains over a century. It looks as though you have steadily marched up the mountain and now sit high and dry. But when you’re at the top, the only way to go is down! Do the math again when you get to the bottom. You will find your average rate of return looks awful.

Second, who lives long enough to make it work? Compounding is great in theory. But it only works its magic at the end. Compound a penny at a 100% a year – from one to two… two to four… four to eight, etc. – and at the end of 10 years, you have just $10.24.

Compound $1,000 at 10% a year, and after 10 years, you have $2,593. Not bad. But hardly the sort of stuff dreams are made of. And that assumes that you get 10% a year. At today’s prices, stocks are already so high, there’s not much mountain left to climb.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller estimates the average annual return on U.S. stocks the next 10 years at only 3%. Vanguard Group founder Jack Bogle puts it at a little more than 1%. And Rob Arnott at Research Affiliates looks for a return of less than 1%. At those levels, you can forget about the magic of compounding.



Dr. Hussman’s market cap/GVA valuation parameter with actual subsequent S&P returns overlaid predicts a 12-year nominal S&P 500 return of 2.5% following the recent market losses. As you can see, this is abjectly low from a long term historical perspective – even the 2007 projection looked better.


Whacked by the Big Bear

Then, you have to worry about those drawdowns – the peak-to-trough losses you experience in your portfolio. If you compound at a rate of 10% a year but have a 40% drawdown in year three, you have to go for another three years just to get back where you started.

Worse, your lifetime of savings and investing gets whacked by a big bear market. You take the “ruinous loss” Russell warned about, with no time to recover. Most investors don’t have enough time to make compounding work as advertised. Most are already over 50 when they begin investing. They don’t have 100 years. They’re lucky if they have 15 or 20.

Over that kind of time frame, if there are any substantial setbacks, they’re finished. That’s why it’s so important to get in when the market is low. Then double-digit gains, compounded over many years, can at least be a theoretical possibility.

But if we’re right about where the economy is… how expensive the stock market is… and how difficult it will be to sustain further gains, then this is probably not the best time to begin a program of retirement financing via stocks.

On our scales, the balance between risk and reward in U.S. stocks falls heavily toward the risk. We see a reasonable likelihood of a ruinous loss against a remote possibility of a big gain.

So go ahead and panic. You may be glad you did
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 02, 2016, 05:00:46 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 02, 2016, 05:42:34 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 02, 2016, 07:07:10 AM

Hated market has 97% chance to rally: Citi
Tae Kim   | @firstadopter
4 Hours Ago
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Hatred of the U.S. stock market is near levels last seen during the financial crisis, according to a Wall Street sentiment measure. And that, ironically, increases the chances the selling is almost over.
Citi Research strategist Tobias Levkovich said his time-tested sentiment model shows there is a 97 percent chance of market gains over the next 12 months. This probability is nearly 20 percent higher than historical average.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 02, 2016, 07:15:44 AM

Total U.S. Debt Surpasses $19 Trillion; Rises $8.4 Trillion Under President Obama
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/01/2016 16:47 -0500

Congressional Budget Office Debt Ceiling National Debt President Obama

Two months ago, when we calculated that the US would need a new "debt ceiling" of $19.6 trillion to last until after Obama's tenure, we may have been too optimistic: since the increase in the hard debt limit of $18.15 trillion which was raised at the end of October, the US appears to be growing its debt at a far faster pace than we had originally expected, and according to the latest public debt data, as of the last day of January, total US debt just hit 19,012,827,698,417.93.

This means that if the nominal US GDP as of December 31 which was $18.12 trillion grows at the 1.2% rate expected by the Atlanta Fed, total debt to GDP is now on pace to hit 105% at the next GDP tabulation, and rising fast from there.

It also means that since his inauguration in January 2009, the US debt has now risen by a whopping 78.9%, or $8.4 trillion. It was $10.6 trillion when Obama came into office.

Indicatively, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the national debt will hit $22.6 trillion by 2020 and will rise to $29.3 trillion by 2026.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 02, 2016, 10:53:19 PM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 02, 2016, 11:02:58 PM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 03, 2016, 05:01:16 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 03, 2016, 05:48:54 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 03, 2016, 06:56:34 AM

Banks report drop in demand for loans
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
3 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Investors aren't the only ones running for safety as the market tumbles and the economy wobbles.

Businesses, too, are indicating an unwillingness to take on risk as loan demand declined for the first time in about four years, according to the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Survey released this week.

Demand for commercial and industrial loans has plunged in 2016, with declines happening across business sizes. Large- and medium-sized businesses had an 11.1 percent decline, while demand from small businesses fell 12.7 percent.

Read MoreWhy 2016 keeps getting uglier
For large and medium businesses, the decline was the first since the fourth quarter of 2012 — demand was flat in the second quarter of 2015 — and tracking for the biggest three-month decline since the fourth quarter of 2011.

The decline comes as the U.S. economy emerges from a fourth quarter that saw gross domestic product gain just 0.7 percent. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index tracking manufacturing registered a 48.2 in January, with a number below 50 representing contraction.

In short, business investment is unlikely to help lead the economy out of its doldrums.

Read MoreForecast sees big plunge in Treasury yields
"The weakening in demand for business loans suggests that the growth rate of actual commercial and industrial lending will grind to a halt this year," Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients.
"Furthermore, banks reported that the weakness in demand for loans from businesses was primarily because the latter were scaling back their investment plans," he added. "That suggests any rebound in investment in equipment in the first half of this year will be muted at best. With the mining, manufacturing and agriculture sectors all hurting, we hadn't expected much from business investment this year, but the drop off in loan demand is worse than we would have expected."
In addition to the falling demand, banks also reporting that standards tightened for large- and middle-market firms while premiums also rose for riskier loans.

On the positive side, banks reported that demand for commercial real estate loans had increased in January and that lending standards for households had eased. But they also expect lending standards to tighten both for commercial real estate and commercial and industrial loans
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 03, 2016, 06:58:35 AM

Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in the stock market

By Tomi Kilgore
Published: Feb 2, 2016 1:08 p.m. ET

Most S&P 500 stocks could fall 50% or more if a ‘worst-case’ recession unfolds
Romina Amato/Red Bull via Getty Images
Another brokerage firm has used the “R” word on Tuesday, warning investors to wake up to the idea that rising risks of a recession could send the stock market over a steep cliff.

Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, “hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe,” RBC Capital Markets’ global equity team wrote in a research note to clients.

Don’t miss: Apple could offer investors shelter in a recessionary storm.

Applying a stress test to their coverage universe, using worst-case, price-to-earnings valuations seen during the 2008-to-2009 recession, RBC analysts said they believe the shares of most companies could still fall another 50% or more from current levels.

The concern for RBC analysts stems from the recently volatility in the stock market, caused by macro weakness, softness in China and commodity market challenges.

On Monday, Deutsche Bank strategist David Bianco said the second-half of 2015 was “clearly a profit recession” for S&P 500 companies, and suggested it probably won’t be until the second half of this year that “healthy” growth returns.

Nearly half of S&P 500 companies have now reported fourth-quarter results through Tuesday morning, and earnings-per-share is headed for a 5.8% decline on the year, according to FactSet, compared with an estimated 5.7% decline as of Friday. That’s the data provider’s blended growth rate, which combines those companies that have reported with the estimates for the rest.

That would be the third-straight quarter of an EPS decline, the longest such streak since the Great Recession.

Among Tuesday’s culprits for the earnings decline, Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, -2.23%  reported a 58% profit plunge and Pfizer Inc. PFE, -0.10%  reported a 50% earnings drop. Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL, -15.17%  reported earnings that nearly doubled, but the stock plunged 16% after the company provided a weak first-quarter outlook.

Don’t miss: These earnings suggest we may be headed for recession.

Deutsche Bank fixed income analysts said last week that given dollar strength, the selloff in stocks and the widening of credit spreads so far this year, their financial conditions index “is now firmly at levels consistent with recession,” and is likely to continue to deteriorate as global liquidity declines.

Based on their analysis of Treasury yield spreads, adjusted for current artificially low yields, they place the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 46%. That’s well above the Federal Reserve’s model, which estimates a 4% probability of recession.

Also last week, Goldman Sachs gave investors a blueprint to follow if the economy suffered a recession in 2016, and Credit Suisse revisited lessons learned from past recessions
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 04, 2016, 04:51:08 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 04, 2016, 05:39:18 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 05, 2016, 04:44:19 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 05, 2016, 05:37:30 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 05, 2016, 06:45:49 AM

A Preview Of This Weekend's Event That Could Unleash A "Vicious Bear Market Rally"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/04/2016 16:35 -0500

Bear Market Central Banks China Credit Conditions goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Yuan

As noted earlier today, BofA's chief credit strategist Michael Hartnett is anything but bullish: in his own words, he remains a seller "into strength in coming weeks/months of risk assets at least until a coordinated and aggressive global policy response (e.g. Shanghai Accord) begins to reverse the deterioration in global profit expectations and credit conditions."

There is, however, one major catalyst that will take place over the weekend that could change Hartnett's mind if only for the near term: one that could unleash a "vicious bear market rally" in his words.

As Hartnett writes, "US dollar unwind may ultimately be seen as an important inflection point for US monetary conditions…signal that “automatic stabilizers” finally coming into play; means relief for “humiliated” assets in EM, commodities, resources; markets begin to discount policy response; if China FX reserves data is better than expected, we think a bear market rally is likely to be vicious."
As a reminder, here is why the world is so focused on China's FX reserves, which have seen over $1 trillion in capital outflows since the summer of 2014 when China's reserve liquidation problem began in earnest.


As a further reminder, it is the pace of Chinese capital outflows, the largest among the entire EM space, that has become the "Quantitative Tightening" counterpoint to the liquidity injections by such DM central banks as the ECB and the BOJ, and which according to many is the primary reason for the recent acute weakness across asset classes as Citi recently explained.


So what is the reported number due this coming Sunday, that could unleash a vicious rally?

It's here that things get tricky.

According to consensus estimates, China will report that its total FX reserves declined to $3.2125 trillion from $3.33 trillion: a drop of $118 billion, or modestly higher than the massive December $108 billion outflow.

In other words, a reported number below, and certainly substantially below, $118 billion for the January outflow and it would be off to the races as a massive short squeeze will grip all the commodity and materials-linked sectors.

To be sure, BofA FX strategist Claudio Piron expects a far smaller print:

We forecast China FX reserve changes and estimate a USD37.5bn fall in January – (USD29.1bn decline adjusting for a negative FX valuation effect). Note that the standard error of the forecast is large at USD24.5bn, which would give us a downside of USD84.5bn fall. We caution that this is guidance and we attempt to be as transparent as possible so investors can gauge the odds in what is a key release for the markets. Note too this is based on onshore CNY FX volumes and our estimate maybe biased down as there are no real time volumes for offshore CNH.

So yes: if the number is a paltry $37.5 billion, it would mean that suddenly China's outflows are "contained", if only for the time being, and that the PBOC may have managed to quell the relentless exodus of domestic hot money abroad (whether it's real or not is a different story).

However, just as a far smaller than expected number will be very bullish, so a far greater number will be very bearish. Which brings us to a post we wrote last week showing what may have been the main reason for the dramatic January market selloff. According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, not only have outflows not slowed down as dramatically as BofA believes, but they have in fact soared to an all time high $185 billion.

This is what Goldman said:

There has been around $USD 185bn of intervention (with the recent intervention predominantly taking place in the onshore market)" split roughly $143 billion on the domestic side and $42 billion on the offshore Yuan side.

Since then it only got worse: courtesy of Fasanara Capital we know that in the last few days, GS revised up the magnitude of the Chinese FX spot intervention to $197bn in January 2016, when adding a $12 billion valuation adjustment, lowering the total FX reserves to just $3.133 trillion!

As Fasanara accurately adds, "in case reserves drop more than consensus (as GS estimates) we could see further pressure on USDCNH and other Asian currencies, together with continued negative reaction by global markets."

In other words, Fasanara lays out the opposite scenario to that of Harnett: one where if outflows surprise to the upside, what will follow is a vicious selloff.

* * *

So there is your bogey, one which will set the mood for risk over the next month: this weekend, China will announce its January reserve outflows which are expected to decline by about $120 billion. Should the number be far less (ostensibly closer to BofA' estimate of $37.5 billion) expect a whopper of a bear market rally coupled with a huge short squeeze. If Goldman is right, however, with its record ~$200 billion in FX intervention and implied outflows, then all bets are off.

Luckily for China, its market will be closed next week due to Chinese New Year Holiday. Which means that it will be up to US and other global stock markets to cushion the surprise until China's FX trading comes back online, and the result in this already illiquid market, could make or break many asset managers year in the span of a day
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 05, 2016, 06:47:41 AM

Have Stocks Priced In A Recession? (Spolier Alert: Not Even Close)
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/04/2016 16:30 -0500

Bear Market Bond Capital Markets China Fail Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Bank Global Economy MACD Monetary Policy RBC Capital Markets Recession Robert Shiller William Dudley

Submitted by Lance Roberts via,

The Fed Is Behind The Curve…Again

Over the last couple of months, I have been discussing the technical deterioration of the market that is occurring beneath the surface of the major indices. I have also suggested there is more than sufficient evidence to suggest we may be entering into a more protracted “bear market cycle.”

The caveat to this, of course, has been the potential for a renewed round of Central Bank interventions that would theoretically once again postpone the onset of such a decline. To wit:

“The top section of the chart is a basic ‘overbought / oversold’ indicator with extreme levels of ‘oversold’ conditions circled. The shaded area on the main part of the chart represents 2-standard deviations of price movement above and below the short-term moving average.”

“There a couple of very important things to take away from this chart.
When markets begin a ‘bear market’ cycle [which is identified by a moving average crossover (red circles) combined with a MACD sell-signal (lower part of chart)], the market remains in an oversold condition for extended periods (yellow highlighted areas.)
More importantly, during these corrective cycles, market rallies fail to reach higher levels than the previous rally as the negative trend is reinforced.
Both of these conditions currently exist.
Could I be wrong? Absolutely.
This entire outlook could literally change overnight if the Federal Reserve leaps into action with a rate cut, another liquidity program or direct market intervention.”
This is just the most recent observation. I begin discussing the deterioration in the markets beginning last summer as early signs of the topping process began and I lowered portfolio model exposures to 50% of normal allocations.

However, despite the fact that interest rates have continued to trend lower, economic data and corporate profits have deteriorated, and inflationary pressures non-existent; most Fed speakers have sounded consistently hawkish and steadfast in their views of 4-rate hikes in 2016.

I have been steadfast in my claims that hiking rates given the current economic conditions is a mistake and will rapidly push the markets and economy towards a reversion. To wit:

“Looking back through history, the evidence is quite compelling that from the time the first rate hike is induced into the system, it has started the countdown to the next recession. However, the timing between the first rate hike and the next recession is dependent on the level of economic growth at that time.
When looking at historical time frames, one must not look at averages of all rate hikes but rather what happened when a rate hiking campaign began from similar economic growth levels. Looking back in history we can only identify TWO previous times when the Fed began tightening monetary policy when economic growth rates were at 2% or less.
(There is a vast difference in timing for the economy to slide into recession from 6%, 4%, and 2% annual growth rates.)”

“With economic growth currently running at THE LOWEST average growth rate in American history, the time frame between the first rate and next recession will not be long.”
It is now becoming quite apparent that the majority of economists, analysts, and Fed members have been quite mistaken in their assessments of the impact of global turmoil and the collapse in commodity prices on the domestic economy. (Read my previous commentary on oil and China)

From Market News: (Via ZeroHedge)

“Top Federal Reserve policymakers are leaving little doubt the financial turbulence and souring of the global economy could have significant implications for U.S. monetary policy, but they are loathe to draw too many conclusions about the appropriate path of interest rates at this juncture.
One thing is for certain: The tightening of financial conditions that has taken place since the Fed began raising short-term rates in mid-December is a matter of considerable concern to the Fed, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley said in an exclusive interview with MNI Tuesday.
But, it was supposed to signal the US economy is ‘strong enough’ to sustain a lift off and decouple from the rest of the world which is scrambling to cut rates. Guess not.
As MNI adds, “a weakening of the global economy accompanied by further appreciation in an already strong dollar could also have “significant consequences” for the U.S. economy, Dudley told MNI.”
“I can give you my own interpretation,” the committee’s vice chairman replied. “I read that as saying we’re acknowledging that things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of the economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth and the risk to the outlook for growth going forward.”
“But it’s a little soon to draw any firm conclusions from what we’ve seen,” he cautioned.”
If history serves as any guide, with the entire flow of data from economic underpinnings, high-yield markets, commodity prices and deteriorating profits screaming for help, by the time the Fed “draws any firm conclusions” it will be far too late to make any real difference.

Interest Rate Predictions Come To Fruition

Well, that didn’t take long.  At the beginning of this year, I wrote in the 2016 Market Outlook & Forecast the following:

“With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on the short-end (Fed Funds), it will likely push the long-end of the curve lower as the economy begins to slow from the effects of monetary policy tightening.
From a purely technical perspective, rates have been in a long-term process of a tightening wedge. A breakout to the upside would suggest 10-year treasury rates would soar to 3.6% or higher, the consequence of which would be an almost immediate push of an economy growing at 2% into recession. The most likely path, given the current economic and monetary policy backdrop, will be a decline in rates toward the previous lows of 1.6-1.8%.(Inflation will also remain well below the Fed’s 2% target rate for the same reasons.)

“Of course, falling rates means the ongoing “bond bull market” will remain intact for another year. In fact, if my outlook is correct, bonds will likely be one of the best performing asset classes in the next year.”
When I wrote that missive, rates were at 2.3%. Yesterday, they touched 1.8% and intermediate and long duration bonds have been the asset class to own this year.

While rates will likely bounce in the short-term, I still suspect rates will finish this year closer to the low-end of my range.

Have Stocks Priced In A Recession?

I have read a significant amount of commentary as of late suggesting that the current decline in stocks have “priced in” the economic and earnings weakness we are currently witnessing.

Such is hardly the case.  There are two primary indicators that warrant such skepticism.

The first is valuations.


The chart above is a 5-year Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio (data source: Dr. Robert Shiller.)  By speeding up the time frame from 10-years to 5-years, we find that valuation changes have shifted from being more coincident prior to 1970, to more leading currently. As shown, the downturn in valuations has been a leading indication of more severe market corrections particularly since the turn of the century.

The second is profits.


While still early into 2016, it already appears that earnings will post an annual decline for the second year running. Annual declines in earnings have historically been more evident during recessionary economic cycles (which only makes sense as consumption slows.)

It is not just me suggesting that risk is currently high either. Here is a note from RBC:

“Based on current valuations, the prices of most stocks don’t appear to have factored in a recession scenario, ‘hence the downside should we see a recession could be rather severe,’ RBC Capital Markets’ global equity team wrote in a research note to clients who believe the shares of most companies could still fall another 50% or more from current levels.”
Such declines have been consistent with past economic/earnings recessions as “overvaluation” reverts back to “undervaluation.”

Just some things to think about.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 05, 2016, 06:49:21 AM

Share buyback machine remains in overdrive and experts warn it will end badly

By Ciara Linnane and Tomi Kilgore
Published: Feb 4, 2016 2:34 p.m. ET

Companies are draining funds with buybacks, instead of investing in growth
Getty Images
Is Corporate America letting its cash drain away?
In the midst of a gloomy earnings season, the share buyback machine has remained in overdrive, and some experts are cautioning it will all end badly.

Companies, even those that are missing profit and sales estimates and cutting outlooks, or restructuring and cutting jobs, are still announcing buybacks. Coming after a long period of intensive spending on shareholder returns, the news is bad for investors hoping to see a return to growth.

“We continue to be skeptical about how companies are deploying capital, especially when it’s tied to stock-based compensation,” said Ben Silverman, vice president of research at InsiderScore, a research firm that tracks buybacks and legal insider trading for institutional clients. “We believe buybacks can be used to mask management’s inability to grow the business and be innovative thinkers.”

Don’t miss: These earnings suggest we may be headed for recession

William Lazonick, professor of economics at University of Massachusetts Lowell and director of the Center for Industrial Competitiveness., went a step further, suggesting that buybacks have the potential to push the U.S. into recession. He argues that companies are using them to prop up share prices at the expense of reinvesting in the business and supporting job stability and long-term growth.

“It has the potential to really drive the economy into the ground,” he said. “Companies have given away so much money, it’s been a long-run secular problem that has contributed to why income is so concentrated at the top.”

Read: Junk bond stress is spreading beyond energy, says Moody’s

Data shows that 78% of the total compensation paid to executives at the top 500 U.S. companies in 2014 went on stock options and stock awards, he said. “Executives are basically incentivized and rewarded for getting the stock up, and buybacks are a prime way of doing that,” he said.

The emergence of aggressive activist hedge funds has exacerbated the problem, as they deliberately target companies with strong cash flow that can be strong-armed into distributing those funds.

‘It behooves people not to look at buybacks as some kind of magic bullet to put a floor under the stock.’
Ben Silverman, VP at InsiderScore
Many activist shareholders, including billionaire investor Carl Icahn, have pushed companies to return more of the cash they hold to shareholders through share buybacks. The idea is that buybacks boost earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding shares, and the additional buying can raise the share price. However, It doesn’t always work out that way.

For example, GoPro Inc. GPRO, -8.68%  said late Wednesday that it spent $35.6 million to buy back stock during the fourth quarter, at an average price of $23.05, but to little avail.

Read: Recession risks warn of ‘severe’ drop in the stock market

The company still reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss, and provided a dismal first-quarter sales outlook. And the stock ended the fourth-quarter $18.01, which was 22% below the average price the company paid to buy them back.

On Thursday, it tumbled 8.5%, toward a record closing low, that was nearly 60% below what the company paid just a few months ago.

Don’t miss: Comcast spent tons of money buying back shares, but earnings still fell short.

“I always caution retail investors to not get too excited about buybacks, because what are they doing?” Silverman said. “If the stock price is not increasing, they’re just repatriating capital without getting additional value from it.”

Shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buybacks hit a record $245.7 billion in the third quarter, according to a report Thursday from Arance (Investment Research), up 4.9% from the year earlier period. On a trailing 12-month basis, returns to shareholders stood at a record $934.8 billion in the quarter, beating the previous record of $923.3 billion set in the second quarter of 2015.

“The trend is expected to continue to reach another record figure of $950 billion for 2015 and may likely touch the trillion-dollar mark,” said Aranca.

Companies that spent large sums on buybacks in the December quarter may be wishing they had waited, given the massive across-the-board selloff in January.

“It does appear to be ill-timed,” said Silverman. “Companies as a group bought into strength, rather than weakness.”

A good example of this has been Apple Inc. AAPL, +0.80% The technology giant repurchased 281.12 million shares in open-market transactions over the past five quarters, at a weighted average price of $117.48, according to an analysis of data provided in the company’s latest quarterly filing.

The stock was trading at $96.60 in afternoon trade Thursday, or 18% below the average price the company paid.

Don’t miss: Apple CEO Tim Cook acts like he’s insane, analyst says.

“It behooves people not to look at buybacks as some kind of magic bullet to put a floor under the stock,” Silverman said. “At the end of the day, the market will typically reward companies that run their businesses well.”

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 06, 2016, 05:30:04 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 06, 2016, 09:21:19 AM

"A Key Technical Indicator Just Rang The Bell On The Cyclical Bull Market"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/05/2016 15:53 -0500

Albert Edwards Bank of England Bear Market China fixed Moving Averages Renminbi Technical Indicators Yuan

While the primary topic of Albert Edwards' most recent note is the question how long China can sustain its FX intervention before tapping out and letting the hedge funds win with their short Yuan bets once total reserves drop below the critical redline of $2.7 trillion (the answer incidentally is between 5 months and 10 months assuming monthly reserve burn rates of $130BN to $60BN), we will skip that part as we have discussed it extensively in the past, and instead will fast forward to some chart porn by the SocGenarian.

Here is Albert Edwards showing that the S&P had breached key moving averages normally seen at the start of a bear market.

Back in the mid-1990s I spent three memorable years working at Bank America Investment Management, among some of the industry’s finest. Having previously spent three years as an economist at the Bank of England, I was new to markets and I let my economic enthusiasm often get the better of me when making recommendations to fund managers.
I remember the head of fixed income explaining to me it was far better not to try and pick market tops or bottoms but to wait and observe the market turn, making the trade late rather than prematurely trying to pick the bottom or top.
So the chart below is notable, showing that key 200d and 320d moving averages for the S&P have just been breached to the downside. If one is looking for key technical indicators to ring the bell on the cyclical bull market- maybe it has just rung loud and clear.
A renminbi devaluation will only sever an already badly frayed safety rope.

Check to you, "data-dependent" Fed
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 07, 2016, 07:09:54 AM

Why The Bulls Will Get Slaughtered
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/06/2016 17:00 -0500

Bear Market BLS ETC fixed Fox News None Rate of Change Recession recovery Steve Liesman Tax Withholding Unemployment White House Withholding taxes

Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Well, they got that right. Detecting that “parts of the U.S. jobs report for January seem fishy”, MarketWatch offered this pictorial summary:

Needless to say, none of that stink was detected by Steve Liesman and his band of Jobs Friday half-wits who bloviate on bubblevision after each release. This time the BLS report actually showed the US economy lost 2.989 million jobs between December and January. Yet Moody’s Keynesian pitchman, Mark Zandi described it as “perfect”

Yes, the BLS always uses a big seasonal adjustment (SA) in January - so that’s how they got the positive headline number. But the point is that the seasonal adjustment factor for the month is so huge that the resulting month-over-month delta is inherently just plain noise.

To wit, the seasonal adjustment factor for the month was 2.165 million. That means the headline jobs gain of 151k reported on Friday amounted to only 7% of the adjustment amount!

Any economist with a modicum of common sense would recognize that even a tiny change in the seasonal adjustment factor would mean a giant variance in the headline figure. So the January SA jobs number cannot possibly reveal any kind of trend whatsoever—-good, bad or indifferent.

But that didn’t stop Beth Ann Bovino, US chief economist at Standard & Poor’s Rating Services, from dispatching the usual all is swell hopium:

“Today’s numbers are about momentum, so while 151,000 new jobs in January is below expectations and off pace from prior months, the data shows America’s recovery is continuing.
Amid all the global economic turmoil and domestic market gyrations, positive job growth, the drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9%, and the uptick in wages show the U.S. is heading in the right direction.”
Actually, it proves none of those things. For one thing, the January NSA (non-seasonally adjusted) job loss this year of just under 3 million was 173,000 bigger than last January—-suggesting that things are getting worse, not better. In fact, this was the largest January job decline since the 3.69 million job loss in January 2009 during the very bottom months of the Great Recession.

So are we really “heading in the right direction” as claimed by Bovino, Zandi and the rest of the Cool-Aid crowd?

Well, just consider two alternative seasonal adjustment factors for January that have been used by the BLS in the last five years. Had they used the January 2013 adjustment factor this time, the headline gain would have been 171,000 jobs; and had they used the 2010 adjustment factor there would have been a headline loss of 183,000 jobs.

We could say in a variant of the Fox News motto—–we report, you decide. But believe me, you can look at years of seasonal adjustment factors for January (or any other month) and not find any consistent, objective formula. They make it up, as needed.

Likewise, you would think anyone paying half attention would realize by now that the 4.9% official unemployment rate (U-3) is equally meaningless due to the vast number of workers who have exited the “labor force”. In a nearby post, Jeff Snider puts this in perspective by juxtaposing the bottom dwelling trend of the adult employment-to-population rate with the U-3 headline.

His graph makes plain as day that when the U-3 unemployment rate dropped in the past, it was logically correlated with a rising share of the civilian population being employed; and that 5% or better unemployment usually meant a 63-64% employment ratio for the civilian population.

Since the financial crisis of 2008, however, that correlation has broken down completely, and the ratio still has not risen above 59.5%. Yet given the 250 million adult population today, it would take about 10 million more jobs than reported on Friday to achieve the reported 4.9% unemployment rate at the historic 63.5% employment ratio.

ABOOK Feb 2016 Payrolls Unem Rate Emp Ratio Longer

The larger point is that the monthly jobs report has now become the essential vehicle for propagating a false recovery narrative that serves the interest of Wall Street and Washington alike.

Month after month the artificially concocted and misleading headline jobs number is used to drive home a comforting meme. Namely, that the nightmare of the financial crisis and recession is fading into the rearview mirror; that the Fed and Washington have fixed the underlying ills, for instance, via Dodd-Frank; and that the soaring values of stocks and other financial assets since the March 2009 bottom are real, sustainable and deserved.

In that context, Obama’s crowing about the alleged success of his economic policies, as evidenced by the 4.9% unemployment rate reported on Friday, was especially annoying. You might have thought that the former community organizer would have noticed that notwithstanding the unfailing appearance of improvement in the BLS charts that prosperity does not seem to be trickling down.

Food stamp participation rates are the still the highest in history, and bear no resemblance to where these ratios stood during earlier intervals of so-called full employment. In a word, 4.9% unemployment can’t be true in a setting where the food stamp participation rate is nearly 15%.

Nor did he mention the “good jobs” aspect of the usual Washington blather about employment. The chart below is the reason why. There has been no recovery in the number of full-time, full-pay jobs since the pre-crisis peak.

On the margin, the US economy swapped-out 1.4 million manufacturing jobs for only a slightly higher number of waiters and bartenders. Never mind the fact that the average manufacturing job pays $55,000 on an annualized basis compared to less than $20,000 for gigs in restaurants and bars.

We have previously called this the bread and circuses economy, and the January numbers once again did not disappoint. Nearly one-third of the 151,000 gain for January was in this category alone. Moreover, the 1.83 million job gain in this sector since the December 2007 pre-crisis peak accounts for 38% of all the net new jobs generated by the entire US economy during that period.

Bread and Circuses Jobs

Another large—–and aberrant—–chunk of the January jobs gain was in retail. Consistent with normal post-holiday patterns the NSA count of retail sector jobs dropped from 16.3 million in December to 15.7 million in January, representing a loss of nearly 600,000 jobs.

You could call that par for the seasonal course, but you would be wrong. In defiance of all logic, the BLS seasonally adjusted the number into a gain of 58,000, thereby accounting for another one-third of the headline total.

Nor is this a one month aberration, either. When you combine the leisure and hospitality  category of the nonfarm payroll with retail, temp agencies, personal services like gardeners and maids etc., you get a larger subset that we have labeled the Part Time Economy.

Not only did it account for well more than half of the of the January gain, but also a similar portion of the eight-year peak-to-peak gain since December 2007. That is, the US economy has generated 4.875 million additional nonfarm payroll jobs since we were at 5% unemployment last time around.

But as is evident from the graph, nearly 2.6 million or 53% of these gains represented part-time jobs. On an income equivalent basis, however, the payroll slots amount to a 40% job. Most of them a generate less than 25 hours per week and pay rates of less than $14 per hour. So on a full year equivalent basis that is an annualized pay rate of $20,000 per year compared to $50,000 for full time jobs, or what we have labeled as the Breadwinner Jobs category.

Part Time Jobs

Needless to say, we are still not there yet when it comes to full-pay, full-time jobs. There are still a million fewer of these jobs today than there were at the pre-crisis peak. And nearly 2 million fewer than when Bill Clinton was vacating the White House back in January 2001.


Breadwinner Jobs

At the end of the day, the monthly jobs report is an economic sideshow. The nonfarm payroll part of it, in particular, is a relic of your grandfather’s economy when most jobs  represented 40-50 hours per week of paid employment on a year round basis.

You could compare both short-term changes and longer-term trends because jobs slots where pretty much apples-to-apples units, and the BLS had not yet invented most of the insane trend-cycle modeling manipulations and dense and obscurantist birth/death and seasonal adjustment routines that have turned the report into quasi-fiction.

As I have suggested before, the world would be far better off if they simply shutdown the BLS. There are already far more timely, accurate and honest price and inflation indices published by a variety of private sources.

And if we need aggregated data on employment trends, the US government itself already publishes a far more timely and representative measure of Americans at work. It’s called the treasury’s daily tax withholding report, and it has this central virtue. No employer sends Uncle Sam cash for model imputed employees or for 2.1 million seasonally adjusted payroll records that did not actually report for work.

Stated differently, the daily tax withholding report is the real thing and the whole thing; it captures the labor input of the entire US economy in real time, and does not get revised and manipulated endlessly over the course of months and years from its original release.

Why is this important. My colleague Lee Adler has been tracking the daily withholding reports for more than a decade and knows their details and rhythms inside-out. He now reports that tax collections are swooning just as they always do when the US economy enters a recession.

In fact, he latest report as of February 6th indicates that,

“The annual rate of change in withholding taxes has shifted from positive to negative. It has grown increasingly negative in inflation adjusted terms for more than a month. Following on the heels of a weak December, it is a clear sign that the US has entered recession……..the implied real growth rate is now roughly negative 4.5% per year……it is the most negative growth rate since the recession. It follows the longest stretch of zero growth in several years, This can no longer be considered temporary or an anomaly. It has all the earmarks of a trend reversal and is getting worse.”
We will have more on this next week, but here’s the thing. Wall Street’s fast money boys and girls and robo-machine’s will have the mother of all hissy fits when it becomes apparent once again that the US is plunging into recession, and that all those sell-side hockey sticks on corporate earnings will be going up in smoke.

The talking heads have spent the entire first five weeks of this year insisting that the market’s rough patch is simply the pause that refreshes because there is never a bear market outside of recession.

Well, exactly. The recession is arriving; the bear market has incepted; and the bulls are heading for the slaughter. Again.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 09, 2016, 05:05:39 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 09, 2016, 05:52:44 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 09, 2016, 07:52:31 AM

Trump: Markets in a 'big, fat, juicy bubble'
Jacob Pramuk   | @jacobpramuk
5 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Amid another battering for stocks Monday, billionaire businessman Donald Trump contended that markets still look overvalued.

"I hope I'm wrong, but I think we're in a big, fat, juicy bubble," the Republican presidential candidate said on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

Major U.S. stock averages were down more than 2 percent each Monday afternoon, continuing a rocky year in which the S&P 500 has fallen 10 percent. Fears about slowing growth in the United States and around the globe have contributed to the recent selling.

Trump, who was in New Hampshire ahead of Tuesday's primary voting, criticized the state of the economy and touted his plans to trim U.S. tax rates and increase competitiveness with China, which has had recent problems of its own.

Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the Republican U.S. presidential candidates debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, Feb. 6, 2016.
Carlo Allegri | Reuters
Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during the Republican U.S. presidential candidates debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, Feb. 6, 2016.
Trump's promotion of his economic policy comes after he finished second in last week's Iowa caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. Despite his slip in Iowa, the bombastic Trump holds a solid lead over Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida in recent New Hampshire polls.

The billionaire called the January U.S. jobs report released Friday a "phony deal," saying that the headline unemployment rate does not include those who have stopped looking for work. The U.S. economy created 151,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent, but a broader measure of unemployment held steady at 9.9 percent.

President Barack Obama had a more optimistic take on the reading, saying the U.S. has "the strongest, most durable economy in the world."

"I know that's still inconvenient for Republican stump speeches as their doom and gloom tour plays in New Hampshire. I guess you cannot please everybody," he said Friday.

Republican presidential candidates Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) participate in the Republican presidential debate at St. Anselm College February 6, 2016 in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Jeb Bush: Rubio is a good guy, but I'm a leader
Donald Trump
Iowa proved Trump hype was wrong: Cantor
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump throws hats into the audience after giving a speech.
Here's what Trump is spending on his campaign

For all of his criticism of Obama's handling of the economy, Trump agrees with the current commander in chief that attempts by U.S. corporations to keep money overseas should be limited.

Trump said he would seek to curb so-called tax inversions, in which companies carry out an acquisition and change their tax address to potentially pay lower rates abroad. He said that if elected, he would attempt to cut taxes for businesses to keep tax money and jobs within the United States.

"We have to try to keep our companies here," Trump said.

He said that cuts to encourage businesses to stay in the U.S. would coincide with broader reductions for the middle class. Trump's plan, while lowering individual income taxes, could reduce tax revenues by more than $10 trillion over the next decade, according to a Tax Foundation analysis last year.

Donald Trump after the Republican U.S. presidential candidates debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, Feb. 6, 2016.
Op-ed: New Hampshire primary isn't about Trump
Trump also outlined his plan to levy tariffs on Chinese exports to reduce the effects of currency devaluation. He has proposed a tariff of as much as 45 percent on Chinese exports to the U.S., according to The New York Times.

"It's impossible for our businesses to compete" currently, Trump said Monday.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Trump's Republican rival, criticized his plans in a CNBC interview Monday. He contended that Trump does not have "an economic policy that's grounded in solid, conservative principles."

Trump said that Bush is "not a very smart person" and does not understand his plan. Trump said that the U.S. "has to get (China) to behave."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 09, 2016, 07:55:34 AM

Stocks end off lows as energy stocks eke out gains
Fred Imbert   | @foimbert
2 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

U.S. stocks closed off their session lows on Monday amid a late rally in the energy sector.

"I just think it's bargain hunting from oversold conditions," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed 177 points lower, with Goldman Sachs and Home Depot weighing the most on the index. The index, however, fell as much as 401.42 points on Monday. Chevron closed the session as the biggest advancer in the Dow.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.4 percent, with financials and materials lagging. Energy, however, rose in late-afternoon trading, and closed as the only advancing sector.

Read MoreBank investors have suffered two lost decades
The Nasdaq composite shed over 3 percent at session lows and closed 1.8 percent lower, as Apple gained 1 percent.

"It might have been people saying the pendulum has swung too far to one side," said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at TD Ameritrade. "There are a lot of things going on right now and people are trying to rectify where they truly should be."
U.S. stocks were sharply lower for most of Monday trading, as global growth concerns weighed on investors.

"I think it's worries that the global economy is slowing down more than expected and that's translating into lower oil prices," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.

Crude prices resumed their downward trajectory, with WTI closing 3.88 percent lower, or $1.20, at $29.69 a barrel, but rose above $30 a barrel in after-hours. Last week, U.S. oil fell about 6 percent.

"Like it or not, we use oil as a barometer for the global economy," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities.

Read MoreJeremy Siegel: I was too bullish—and here's why
Gold futures for April delivery surged 3.47 percent to close at $1,197.90 an ounce, and broke above $1,200 for the first time since June. The precious metal also recorded its best trading day since December 2014.

"The gold trade is signaling a retreat in global inflation," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott. "In times of economic stress ... gold acts as a store of value."

He also said that, in order to stem this sharp sell-off, "you're going to need for some tangible evidence that the global economy is not slowing down, and that's China."

Chinese markets are closed this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday.

"Without something fresh to sort of turn the tide on this, I think the path of least resistance is to the downside," Wunderlich Securities' Hogan said.

Read MoreThe market needs to rethink the Fed: Economist
With no major economic data due Monday, investors looked ahead to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

"We have the most cautious Fed chair I've seen in many, many years," said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors. "I think we're going to get a reiteration ... of what we saw in the minutes."

However, First Standard's Cardillo said that "if she would hint that wages are rising, but still not at levels that would constitute a rate hike, then that would turn things around."

Is this the year gold stops breaking hearts?

Oil settles at lowest level since Jan. 21

10-year note yield falls below 1.75 percent

Dollar falls to 15-month low versus yen
Gold bullion bars and coins.
Gold sees biggest gain since Dec. 2014

Concerns of a Fed rate hike took center stage Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in January — below expectations — but wages rose 0.5 percent.

"The wage spike we saw in the jobs report certainly sparked some Fed concerns," Cardillo said. "But if you look at the yield curve, you wouldn't think that."

U.S. Treasurys rallied Monday, with the benchmark 10-year note yield falling to 1.76 percent, while two-year yields traded at 0.67 percent.
"Folks are getting less confident that the central banks can control the economy," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at R.W. Baird. "It appears monetary policy has not worked to stimulate the economy, here or [abroad]."

Read MoreThis group of stocks are in a free fall
Stocks closes lower Friday, with the Dow falling over 200 points and the Nasdaq tumbling 3 percent.

"At some point, prices have to get low enough where people start seeing them as bargains ... but I don't know when that's going to happen," said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab. "This could go on for a while."

Overseas, European equities closed lower, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index dropping 3.5 percent. The German DAX also dipped below the 9,000 mark for the first time since October 2014.
"We're in a very broad-based sell-off. Investors are selling first and asking questions later," said Adam Sarhan, CEO of Sarhan Capital.
In corporate U.S. news, Hasbro and Diamond Offshore, among others, reported quarterly results.

"Through last Friday's close, 314 companies in the S&P 500 have now reported 4Q 2015 results," Nick Raich, CEO of The Earnings Scout, said in a note. "Collectively, 72% of those companies have seen their next quarter's (i.e. 1Q 2016) EPS estimates drop 4.81% after reporting."

Read MoreWhy the rout could continue
"Once we get through earnings season, it will be easier for investors to take a more long-term view, but my fear is that the Q1 numbers aren't going to look much better than the Q4 numbers," Tower Bridge's Ogg said.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 09, 2016, 07:59:19 AM
Why Wall Street isn’t panicking about the stock-market tumble

By Anora Mahmudova
Published: Feb 8, 2016 4:15 p.m. ET

CBOE Volatility index at 26, above long-term average of 20
Time (CST)
Sharp swings in stocks are the new normal.

Moves of 1% or greater—instead of being occasions for panic—have a become a new paradigm for investors that, lately, has been met with relative calm.

Implied volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, +11.21% also known as the Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” was up by nearly 12% on Monday to a reading of 26, only slightly above the long-term average of 20. That’s even as 2016 stock losses have mounted. Through Monday, the year-to-date losses of both the S&P 500 SPX, -1.42% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.10% verge on 10%.

During last summer’s dramatic selloff, the VIX saw an intraday spike to above 50, closing at 40 on Aug. 24, the day the Dow was off by a stunning 1,000 points intraday.

But after weeks of turmoil, highlighted by the worst start to a year for U.S. stocks on record, investors may have grown inured to the roller-coaster ride. “After seven straight weeks of volatile action in the market, there is panic exhaustion. For investors, this is the new norm,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

The S&P 500 SPX, -1.42%  has fallen in 12 of the past 24 sessions, with nearly all the down days involving declines of more than 1%. Only four of the “positive” days have included gains of more than 1%.

Read : Dow, S&P posts most 1% swings in January since 2008 meltdown

‘There is no big rush to sell — it’s gradual and painful but not panic-inducing so far.’
Randy Frederick, Schwab Center for Financial Research
Frederick noted that the VIX has been at elevated levels since last November and would need a big catalyst to spike further. “Lower volumes in February, compared to a spike in January, suggest that a lot of investors who wanted to sell or exit positions or rebalance already did that. There is no big rush to sell — it’s gradual and painful but not panic-inducing so far.”

According to Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, more volatility is to be expected as a bull market ages. For example, since 1945, the seventh year in a bull market, on average, features 55 days with moves of 1% or more, up from an average of 43 days in the sixth year. Years 8 and 9 include even higher numbers of volatile days.

“Even though volatility is not a bull-market timing mechanism, it does suggest that we are well beyond the end of the beginning, and may be closing in on the beginning of the end,” Stovall wrote in emailed comments.

Whether we are exiting a bull market or entering a bear market, history suggests we should be prepared for more volatile days

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 09, 2016, 08:14:31 AM

Resist the urge to buy this stock-market pullback, says J.P. Morgan

By Barbara Kollmeyer
Published: Feb 8, 2016 12:10 p.m. ET

A buying opportunity is tough to see right now
It is too soon to look for a bottom for stocks, at least over the medium term, Mislav Matejka, equity strategist at J.P. Morgan, and a team of analysts wrote in a note on Monday.

That buying opportunity is tough to see right now, even as the proportion of S&P 500 SPX, -1.42%  and European stocks SXXP, -3.54%  already in a bear market have increased to 40%, the analysts said.

Read: Stocks drop on global growth fears; Dow down 340 points

“This could lead to some knee-jerk bounces, but we note that in [2011], this ratio was as high as 60% and that was even without a recession materializing,” said Matejka. “In [2008], the ratio rocketed to 95%, more than double the current levels.”

Stocks in a bear market are on the way up
Last week, Wall Street stocks posted their worst weekly return in a month, driven by a selloff for tech stocks.

On Monday, the Dow industrials opened with a more than 300 point loss as investors continued to fret over oil prices CLH6, +1.72%  and the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

What’s needed for a “more sustained market rebound,” is more evidence of a stabilization in activity. ”We are not sure that this is upon us, and we in fact see rising evidence of weakness spreading in all the key regions,” Matejka said. They cited examples such as the U.S. loan officer survey that shows outright credit tightening for two straight quarters, jobless claims that are trending higher and then weak Chinese data flow. That is even as Europe isn’t leading the downtrend this time.

The analysts said the recent sharp selloff in the U.S. dollar isn't exactly a potential positive for risk assets because it is a direct result of weaker-than-expected U.S. data. And the interest-rate differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world remains extreme, which could keep the dollar firm. J.P. Morgan expects a 2.5% rise in the trade-weighted dollar from this point to the middle of the year.

In all, the analysts said they’d advise against looking for a market low and stick to stocks like telecoms and utilities, staying overweight defensive versus cyclicals.

Read: These ‘Buffet stocks’ are bargains in this beaten-down market

The comments echo prominent value investor Jeremy Grantham’s in his latest quarterly letter published this week. Grantham said the pullback for stocks investors have been seeing probably isn’t the big bear market that some have been looking for. “The most important missing ingredient is a fully-fledged blow-off,” he said.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 09, 2016, 01:51:09 PM

Cramer: We're nowhere close to stocks bottoming
Abigail Stevenson   | @A_StevensonCNBC
6 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Jim Cramer couldn't find many positive signs in the market on Monday, which is why stocks ended in the red at market close. And when he went back to look at his market-bottom checklist, he realized stocks were nowhere close to bottoming.

"The list reminds us, first, why we are selling off, and second, what could put an end to the pain," the "Mad Money" host said.

When Cramer checked up on the status of his market-bottom checklist, he even ended up adding to it instead of reducing it.

No. 1 was clarity from the Fed. The Fed is in a bind because as the economy has slowed but employment hasn't. The Fed is worried that the economy will overheat, but there is no overheating. Cramer needs to hear from Janet Yellen that her plan for multiple rate hikes is off the table, or there will be more pain ahead.

No. 2 There needs to be resolution for political uncertainty. Cramer has no idea who the presidential candidates will be, and it seems that they have all hardened their stances against business.

A man pumps his own gas at a BP gas station.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
A man pumps his own gas at a BP gas station.
"If we rally, you need to sell something, raise cash, and get ready for lower prices."
-Jim Cramer
No. 3 China needs to get better. At least its stock market is closed for the Lunar New Year. No check, just a respite.

No. 4 Commodities must bottom. "All I can say is that commodities are trying hard to put in a bottom, but it's too early to declare one," Cramer said.

No. 5 Oil needs to stabilize. Oil has been acting better, but it needs to stabilize.

No. 6 There must be improvement on geopolitical issues. North Korea was at it again this weekend with a rocket launch, so this box cannot be checked off, yet.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Verizon CEO confirms interest in buying Yahoo
Cramer game plan: Beware this falling knife
Ford CEO: Auto industry is being underestimated

No. 7 Zombie companies must be put to death. On Monday, Chesapeake Energy plunged 33 percent on fears that it could struggle to pay the $500 million in debt that it has when it matures next month. Cramer wants to watch this situation closely because it could cause major weakness for stocks.

No. 8 Relief from the strong dollar. Cramer was surprised to learn that because of a huge decline in the dollar versus the euro, the exchange rate is almost back to where it was last year. He's not ready to call an all-clear on this one, but it is getting close.

No. 9 More mergers and acquisitions. Nope. Not even close. There have been almost none.

No. 10 A return of a healthy IPO market. Again, not even close. "In fact, this is one of the worst times I've ever seen for new offerings," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

No. 11 Peaks in the economy. Cramer has been watching the stocks of cellphone makers, automakers and homebuilders for signs of a bottom to signal that peaks may not be for real. But the stocks just keep falling.

No. 12 Sentiment must become more negative. Stocks are down bad, but the Dow Jones industrial average still hasn't taken out January lows and isn't oversold yet.

No. 13 Sector leadership expansion beyond FANG. While Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet have definitely been lost, there is no leadership besides gold, which was not what Cramer wanted to see.

No. 14 Domestic companies must do better from low oil prices. Besides Clorox, no companies have experienced a break to their bottom line from cheaper gasoline.

Cramer was disturbed by the lack of progress when he reviewed this checklist. In fact, he even decided to add a new item to the list:

No. 15 Credit issues must be resolved. There are oil companies all over the place saying credit has become more difficult to get. At the same time, there is fear about European banks and credit issues they may have. This potential credit crunch could turn into a real issue if not resolved.

Until there are more boxes checked off, Cramer recommended only nibbling at the stocks of high-quality companies.

"If we rally, you need to sell something, raise cash, and get ready for lower prices," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

Questions for Cramer?
Call Cramer: 1-800-743-CNBC

Want to take a deep dive into Cramer's world? Hit him up!
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Questions, comments, suggestions for the "Mad Money" website?
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 10, 2016, 05:03:45 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 10, 2016, 05:46:20 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 10, 2016, 06:46:37 AM

Cramer: Fed could spark a long awaited rally
Abigail Stevenson   | @A_StevensonCNBC
22 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

So far, this year has brought weak earnings, issues of valuation and stress in the oil patch. But unless the Federal Reserve provides clarity on where it stands with rate hikes this year, Jim Cramer said it is going to be very hard for the market to find a footing.

"When you drill down, the proximate cause of much of these problems comes back to the Federal Reserve and its compulsion to raise interest rates into a tumultuous environment," the "Mad Money" host said.

Janet Yellen is slated to speak on Wednesday, and that is when Cramer thinks investors will realize just how important the Fed is to this market.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference.
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference.
"There is so much that needs to go right for us to get a bottom in stocks, but I still think it starts with the Fed."
-Jim Cramer
The Fed is in a difficult spot right now because it is so analog. It analyzes the economy from the perspective of the unemployment rate. It isn't looking at it through the lens of anyone under 30 who is looking for a job or anyone over 50 who have been thrown out of a job.

And with the unemployment rate now under 5 percent, Cramer thinks the Fed may feel it must raise rates. It isn't considering the huge number of people that have left the workforce because they have given up.

Read more from Mad Money with Jim Cramer

Verizon CEO confirms interest in buying Yahoo
Cramer game plan: Beware this falling knife
Ford CEO: Auto industry is being underestimated

"Not only that, but this endless fixation on rising wages, without caveating the numbers by considering that so many states and cities have raised the minimum wage because it's a digitized economy, is ridiculous," Cramer said.

Cramer thinks states must take action, because it is too easy to crush a workforce in a shared economy. In fact, he considers the fixation with stopping the meager wages of the American worker as a justification for higher interest rates to be causing the Fed to turn a blind eye to what really matters.

Cramer knows that the Fed shouldn't only worry about the stock market. But the stock market is signaling slowdowns everywhere, perhaps because it recognizes that the Fed might act too soon in raising rates.

"There is so much that needs to go right for us to get a bottom in stocks, but I still think it starts with the Fed," Cramer said. (Tweet This)

So, stay tuned. Cramer thinks if Yellen gives clarity on Wednesday and confirms that the Fed will stay data dependent and it is too soon to raise rates — it could trigger the rally many have been waiting for.

Yellen is that important to the market's next move. It's all in her hands now

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 10, 2016, 06:54:30 AM

Opinion: Why U.S. stocks could post double-digit losses this election year

By Chuck Jaffe
Published: Feb 9, 2016 5:08 a.m. ET

Last year of a two-term presidency typically troubles the market
Getty Images
Bill W. was trying to calm his friends and neighbors when he spoke up at a current-events chat at the suburban Boston retirement community where he lives.

“Nothing too bad is going to happen to the market this year,” the 83-year-old former retired school administrator told a group of about two dozen senior friends and neighbors, “because this is an election year and the market always does fine in an election year.”

I asked the group who agreed with Bill’s assessment of what happens to the stock market during presidential election years and all hands went up.

Mutual funds vs. ETFs — Which is right for you?(1:39)
If you're looking to invest in stocks, two good options are mutual funds or their financial cousins, exchange-traded funds, also known as ETFs. Here's a look at the pros and cons.

Combined, the people who had asked me to come chat with their investment/current-events group represented about 1,000 years of investment experience, and enough financial success to have moved to a comfortable pricey community where they all expect to live out their days comfortably no matter what the stock market or economy dishes out next.

The people in that room came to their conclusions about election years from practice. They averaged more than a dozen presidential elections per person.

But their faith that the market always does well in election years isn’t actually based on experience or market history, it’s mostly that they don’t remember any traumatic events coinciding with presidential campaigns.

While that view is correct, the idea that election years are always good for U.S. stocks is wrong, and investors who are waiting for the power of the election to turn the market around this year need to recognize that they could be in for disappointment and pain.

The last year of a two-term presidency has been down an average of almost 14% on the Dow and about 11% for the S&P 500
Here are the numbers I gave Bill and his friends:

According to the Stock Traders Almanac, election years used to be the second-best year of the four-year presidential cycle. That’s where the perception of the seniors at the meeting came from.

Since 1920, however, the eighth years of presidential terms have represented the worst of election years. While the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.08%  has posted an average gain of 4.8% in election years since then, the last year of a two-term presidency has been down an average of almost 14% on the Dow and about 11% for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.07%  , according to the Almanac, with losses in five of the last six times a two-term president was finishing up.

In fact, with the recent history of two-term presidents and their final year in office, the fourth year of the election cycle has been worst, on average, for the Dow dating back to 1941.

In other words, the investors haven’t had the kind of experience they assume happens in election years, meaning they should have even less confidence that there will be any election protection for the market in 2016.

Jeffrey Hirsch, co-author of the Almanac, called for two prospective scenarios during an interview this week on my radio show, MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffe.

There’s the “average election-year scenario,” where the Fed is right and energy and commodity prices stabilize and the market ends up with gains in the mid-single-digit range.

Or there’s the scenario where the market is already in a bear market, Hirsch said, that gets exacerbated by further declines in oil and commodity prices and more.

In short, noted Hirsch, “Election years ain’t what they used to be.”

And if you believe that past is prologue when it comes to election years, consider this statistic from the Almanac: In the last 16 presidential election years, 14 full years followed the direction of the first five trading days of the year.

The first five trading days of 2016, of course, represented the worst opening week in stock-market history.

If you don’t want to use a time frame as short as a week as an indicator, then consider that in 75 percent of those last 16 election years, the market finished the year moving in the same direction as it started for the month of January. January 2016 also was down.

None of this actually means that what Bill and his friends hold as true about election years is wrong, and that the market is due for a nosedive this year. The seniors in the current-events meeting didn’t think the election necessarily guaranteed profits so much as insulated them against a crash.

Still, the numbers suggest that investors shouldn’t think that the past is prologue for the future, especially when they are misinterpreting the past.

That’s particularly true this year, when the election scenario is anything but ordinary.

In many election years, the ultimate candidates are obvious by the time the Iowa caucuses are over, but the current election has enough possibilities that the market hasn’t yet factored in just which candidates ultimately have the inside track to the White House.

To this point, the market has ignored Donald Trump, presumably waiting for him to win something besides a poll.

At some point, however, the potential for a candidate to actually win office and effect the market will factor into the daily market volatility. If tweets from Hillary Clinton could tank biotech and pharmaceutical stocks last September, there’s little doubt that the ultimate candidates will inject more uncertainty into the process.

Said Hirsch: “The market is not really enamored by any of the prospects for the next resident of the White House.”

Just as investors should not be enamored with the market’s prospect for an election year; anyone who thinks that open polls wind up meaning up markets could be in for significant disappointment both in politics and portfolio
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 10, 2016, 06:57:58 AM

Here’s what technical analysts are saying about the turmoil in stocks

By Anora Mahmudova
Published: Feb 9, 2016 3:24 p.m. ET

‘Next target on S&P 500 is 1,600,’ says J.C. Parets
MarketWatch photo illustration/Shutterstock
Bearish pattern signals more pain
Some chart watchers say a recently completed bearish pattern could portend more pain for stock investors over the short term.

These technical strategists are pointing to a so-called head-and-shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.07%   that has formed over 15 months and was completed last week, as investors fretted about slowing global economic growth and as the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on a path of normalizing monetary policy.

A head-and-shoulders pattern has three distinct peaks, with one peak in the middle, symbolizing the head, and two smaller peaks on either side representing the shoulders. Another component is the neckline, which is often defined as the trendline between the two troughs separating the head from the shoulders, as the chart below illustrates:

For chartists, a head-and-shoulders pattern typically signals that a bullish trend is about to go through a major reversal. This particular pattern began forming in May 2014, with the left shoulder resulting in a selloff in October 2014. The “head” took almost a year to form, culminating in the all-time high on May 21, 2015, when the S&P 500  closed at 2,130.82. The right shoulder consists of a 12% drop last August, a recovery that failed to hit record highs by a few points and the current selloff.

Technicians believe that breaking through the so-called ‘neckline’ completes the pattern and signals further downside, according to Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at brokerage firm Instinet. He said the pattern that began forming more than a year ago is now complete.

How bearish could things get for the S&P 500 on the heels of this ugly chart formation?

J.C. Parets, founder of money manager Eagle Bay Capital and a prominent market commentator, suggests the index could fall a further 13%, based on the S&P 500’s level of 1,847 at midday Tuesday. “When [the pattern is] completed and confirmed, it dictates the price target. We think the next price target is 1,600 on the S&P 500,” he said.

Parets said he has been bearish about the stock market since stocks kept scaling all-time highs early last year. “It was a combination of deteriorating breadth and new record highs,” he said. The S&P 500 is down 13% from that record set in May.

By deteriorating breadth, Parets is referring to outsize gains from a handful of large stocks that masked weakness in the broader index. The S&P 500, which is market-cap weighted, finished 2015 down 0.7%, but on an equal-weighted basis, as measured by the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF RSP, -0.30% stocks fell 4.3% in 2015.

Those big gainers for 2015 include so-called FANG stocks: Facebook Inc. FB, -0.21% AMZN, -1.24%   Netflix Inc. NFLX, +3.37% and Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOG, -0.68% GOOGL, -0.45% Those stocks on average rose 82.7% in 2015. This year, those stocks are down more than 18% on average.

Looking beyond the S&P 500, some indexes already have moved into bear-market territory—commonly defined as a 20% drop from a recent peak.

The Russell 2000 RUT, -0.56% has plunged 26% from its June 23 peak. The Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT, +1.04% has been on a downward path since Dec. 29, 2014, falling 25% since then. The transportation sector is considered a leading indicator of economic downturns, and prolonged weakness in the index is seen as a sign of a slowing economy.

Opinion: What the oldest stock market index is saying now

Although the S&P 500 hasn’t joined those market gauges in bear-market territory, it is facing stiff headwinds. Technical analysts note that rallies over the past few weeks have been relatively small and have failed to stoke buying appetite.

“For the bottom to appear, the declines need to become smaller until buyers come back in and gradually begin buying again. Bottom is not in yet,” Instinet’s Cappelleri said.

The conventional wisdom calls for bargain hunters to step in and buy after prices have moved sharply over a short period without any justification, a condition known as an oversold market. But investor behavior since the start of the year hasn't quite followed the expected patterns, according to Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, another brokerage firm.

“What is the most troubling is the lack of reaction to oversold conditions. That felt like it was in 2008. Is there something we don’t know about? Something that is not yet in news headlines?” asked Stockton.

She remains bearish, expecting any bounce to be short-lived and weak.

To be sure, neither technical analysts nor fundamental strategists are able to call the absolute top and absolute bottom in real time. In fact, by the time some of the signals confirm such calls, it becomes almost too late.

But the chartists are forecasting more pain before a sustainable rebound.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 10, 2016, 07:07:05 AM

What The Charts Say: "Complacent" Bulls Remain As S&P Support Under Pressure
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2016 16:50 -0500

CBOE McClellan Oscillator Russell 2000 Value Line

The S&P 500 is down 8.02% YTD through the first five sessions of February. This is the second worst start to the year going back to 1928 and the weakest since 2008, when the S&P 500 dropped 8.95% YTD through the first five days of February. This, as BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier details, compares to an average 1.16% gain for this period. The S&P 500 also has bearish signals for the Nov-Jan and January barometers. This is a risk for 2016.

We have made a case for a “sell into strength” tactical rally but the S&P 500 has not gotten much strength to sell. Many short-term indicators are becoming less supportive. The 5 and 10-day put/call ratios look complacent. Indicators that recently generated tactical oversold buy signals, such as the VXV/VIX ratio, Williams %R, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator, and slow stochastic, are rolling over. Both the 14-day Williams %R and McClellan Oscillator hit overbought before falling. Daily slow stochastic generated a sell signal below overbought on Friday.

The 5 and 10-day put/call ratios look complacent
Both the 5 and 10-day CBOE Total Put/Call ratios have dropped back toward the more complacent levels that coincided with the prior S&P 500 highs from early November and late December.

There is some room for the put/call ratios to move lower before hitting these complacent levels, but the put/call ratios are much closer to overbought or complacent levels than they are to oversold or fearful levels.

The rally for the S&P 500 from mid October through early November occurred with diminishing price momentum. Following this bearish divergence between the S&P 500 and daily slow stochastic (see red arrows below), buy signals on stochastic have preceded lower S&P 500 highs and sell signals have preceded lower S&P 500 lows.

Daily slow stochastic generated a fresh sell signal on Friday. The risk is for a lower S&P 500 low.

First support under pressure
We previously highlighted using the rising channel from January 20 as a guide for a “tactical” and “sellable” rally.

This channel came in at 1884 on Friday vs. an S&P 500 close at 1880. The channel rises approximately 6 points per session, which means that a failure for the S&P 500 to close above 1890.21 on Monday (2/8) increases the risk for a decisive break of the channel and perhaps 1872 chart support as well. This would expose the 1820-1812 lows. First resistance moves to 1917-1927. This is below the more important 1947-1950 resistance, where a break is required to put in a base for a stronger tactical bounce.

Weak VIGOR & most active A-D line say SPX risk below 1812
Tops for VIGOR, our longer-term volume model, and our US top 15 most active A-D line remain in place.

Both indicators continued to hit new lows last week to reflect a US equity market under distribution. New lows for these indicators increase the risk for new lows in the S&P 500 below 1812.

If SPX follows VIGOR & Most active A-D line, risk of top
Both VIGOR and the US top 15 Most Active A-D line show big tops.

In addition, tops for the Value Line Arithmetic, NYSE Comp, Russell 2000 and the S&P Midcap 400 are also potentially bearish for the S&P 500 (Chart Talk: 02 Feb 2016). In our view, this says that the S&P 500 shows risk below 1812 with the rising 200-week moving average at 1787 and the 38.2% retracement of the October 2011 to May 2015 rally at 1730.

We still are not ruling out a cyclical correction within the larger secular bull market with risk toward 1600-1575

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 10, 2016, 08:20:26 AM

炒定耶倫「放鴿」美股靠穩 大淡友睇瀉75%
02月10日(三) 05:09   








著名「大淡友」、去年初已預言去年中會「熊派」當道,結果言中的法興首席策略師愛德華茲(Albert Edwards)於1月時接受外國傳媒訪問時直言:「如果我正確,美股將狂插75%!」

他的預言被視為瘋癲,現時卻獲該行同僚「肯定」,法興環球研究團隊主管Andrew Lapthorne指出,全球股市真的可以暴挫75%!主因是投資者或整調美股長期平均市盈率(PE)倍數,最壞情況下,市盈率倍數將由約30.8倍挫至約14.7倍,意味美股有60至65%下跌空間。另外,企業債務已到達頂峰,如果最壞情況出現,股市是可以骨牌式下滑。
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 11, 2016, 04:58:55 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 11, 2016, 05:46:59 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 11, 2016, 06:47:38 AM

耶倫「鴿味」不足 道指曾升187變收跌99點
02月11日(四) 05:01   







歐洲太平洋資本行政總裁、有「華爾街預言家」之稱的Peter Schiff批評,美股近期下跌是因聯儲局主席耶倫!他說:「除非聯儲局完全投降,否則今次的熊市將會十分兇殘。要怎樣停止這次熊市?這完全要建基於聯儲局全面量化寬鬆(QE)。事實上,自2008年開始,每次市場調整,最終都是因聯儲局的行動而見底。聯儲局每次救市的招數不外乎減息、推出QE,或出口術將推QE。故此,華爾街早已上癮。」

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 11, 2016, 08:24:45 PM

'I hate to say' selling going to continue: Gartman
Matthew J. Belvedere   | @Matt_Belvedere
1 Hour Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

U.S. stock futures and oil prices were tanking again Thursday morning, and closely followed market watcher Dennis Gartman said he believes the selling is going to persist.

"I don't think there's too much selling at all. I think there's going to be even more selling going on," the founder and publisher of "The Gartman Letter" told CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" Thursday. "Sovereign funds are in the process of liquidating. They have no choice."

In early trading, the Dow futures were off more than 300 points at one stage, U.S. crude was falling around 4 percent to under $27 per barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield was dipping to around 1.56 percent, and the dollar was down about 1.75 percent against the Japanese yen.

Read MoreDow futures plunge 300 points as Europe tanks

"I'm afraid it's going to get even worse. I hate to say that. There's not a good tenor to be found anywhere," Gartman said.

Against this backdrop, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen goes back to Capitol Hill Thursday morning to testify on the economy and monetary policy on the Senate side.

Investors will look to see if she changes her tune from Wednesday's approach before a House panel, which combined a steady-as-she-goes account on interest rate policy with an acknowledgement of intensifying risks from markets and the slowdown in China.

Read MoreRound two in Yellen versus the bond market

But Gartman said Thursday: "The central banks I think at this point are as confused as is anyone else. I'm not sure anyone is going to look to central banks to be of great help right now."

The spiral downward in the markets is "margin liquidation," he said, with no indication when the selling might end.

"It will end when it ends," he said. "I've lived through many of these in 40 years of being around [markets]. Suddenly there's just an end to the selling, everyone looks around and realizes that the selling reached a tsunami-like ending. And you turn out."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 11, 2016, 08:26:53 PM

The Fed won't be able to save stocks: Traders
Stephanie Yang
1 Hour Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

As investors looked for clues in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony Wednesday, stocks largely went nowhere, with the S&P 500 closing the day almost flat.

According to technician Jonathan Krinsky of MKM Partners, equities should continue to slide regardless of rhetoric on where interest rates are going next.

"We're less concerned about what she's actually saying," Krinsky said Wednesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "The market's telling you the central bank action is not having the impact it once was. In fact, you could argue that it's having a negative impact."

Because of this, Krinsky sees the S&P 500 running into an important support level around 1,812 to 1,820. If the index breaks below that level, it could be heading to 1,740 in the next few months, another 6 percent drop from where the index closed Wednesday.

Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management also pointed to a reversal in the U.S. dollar's rise on Wednesday as proof of the Fed's inability to impact markets. The dollar ended the day slightly down.

Read MoreFed's Janet Yellen: Not sure we can do negative rate; rate cut unlikely
"In general, central banks are losing control. The weakness of the dollar, the benign rally in stocks, reflect everyone's lack of confidence in the Federal Reserve," Lien said Wednesday on "Power Lunch."

Lien said the dollar should also play a large role in preventing the Fed from raising interest rates at its next meeting in March.

"The strong dollar is a very big headache and I think that's going to weigh heavily on the stock market going forward as well as the underpins of a weak global economy, which is the reason why they would not want to raise interest rates in March," she said
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 12, 2016, 04:52:27 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 12, 2016, 05:40:44 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 12, 2016, 06:55:04 AM

油組話救市 道指曾瀉411收市縮至254點
02月12日(五) 05:00   






不過,美國最著名的債券管理機構太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)表示,負利率是一個問題,不是解決方法。 Pimco指出,負利率直至現時為止,暫未見到能刺激經濟及通脹;相反,市場現時反而擔心負利率政策影響金融市場穩定,是一個絕望的試驗,蠶食銀行盈利,反令銀行流動性更緊縮。

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 12, 2016, 07:08:31 AM

财经  2016年02月11日












Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 12, 2016, 07:10:07 AM

财经  2016年02月11日









Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 05:16:27 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 06:22:02 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 06:25:21 AM

The majority of international markets are down
Mark Fahey   | @marktfahey
4 Hours Ago
COMMENTJoin the Discussion
If it seems as if the bottom is falling out of international markets, it isn't your imagination. Eighty percent of world markets were down over the past week.

Most stock markets in more than 60 countries have had a difficult week and two-thirds are down over the last two years. Greek stocks are at their lowest level since the 1990s, and the Nikkei in Japan has been closing in the red for over a week. (Some markets, such as Venezuela's, are up, but for all the wrong reasons.)

Of course, that's concerning — we live in a global economy and the world's markets tend to move together. But some markets tend to move along with the S&P 500 more than others. Based on our analysis of stock market data in each country, the nearest neighbors to the U.S. tend to move with the domestic market market with a correlation coefficient of over 0.6. (A perfect correlation would be 1.0, no correlation would be zero, and negative correlation would be -1.)

European markets are also closely linked to ours, but markets in Asia and Africa tend to be less correlated. Some markets are more likely to move opposite ours, with slightly negative correlation coefficients over the last two years. Here's the data for 62 world markets compared to the S&P 500 (as of Thursday's close):

Global markets looking glum
Colors represent change from two years ago — hoverand click for additional data.
Click on map to view other countries' markets
Mark Fahey/CNBC
Sources: FactSet, CNBC calculations. Correlation coefficients calculated for daily returns over the last 2 years. Market data for each country is indexed to 100 in Feb. 2014. Percent changes are as of close of the US market on Feb. 11, 2016. All foreign exchange changes are calculated using local currencies and the US calendar.
While the S&P 500 is still up a little more than half a percentage point over the last two years, the world excluding the U.S. is down about 10 percent, based on the MSCI World Index. The outside world is down more than 5 percent over the last week, with Asia losing 3.6 percent and Europe dropping more than 6 percent.

Looking at the daily performance by region, the world as a whole (excluding the U.S.) is moderately correlated with the S&P 500, with a correlation coefficient of 0.57. Asia is at 0.27, and the emerging and frontier markets of Europe, the Middle East and Africa are around 0.44. The Americas as a whole are nearly perfectly correlated.

But while the day-to-day movement may not be strongly correlated in Asian or African countries, the overall trends for all regions still tend to follow a similar path. It's easy for concerns over the future of those economies to drag the U.S. down, too
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 06:46:16 AM

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The World's Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short, Explains Why
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2016 17:07 -0500

China Federal Reserve headlines Hong Kong Japan Kyle Bass Kyle Bass New Normal None Real estate Renminbi Reuters Trade War Yuan

Last month, in our latest profile of the $2.8 billion Horseman Capital, we said that not only has that fund which some have called the "most bearish in the world" generated tremendous returns almost every single year since inception (except for a 25% drop in 2009 after returning 31% during the cataclysmic 2008), but more notably, it has been net short - and quite bearish on - stocks ever since 2012. In that period it has consistently generated low double-digit returns, a feat virtually none of its competitors have managed to replicate. In fact, its performance has put it in the top percentile of all hedge funds in recent years.

Furthermore, in a year most other hedge funds would love to forget, the fund "crushed it", with a 20.45% return for 2015 and 5.6% in the tumultuous month of December.

Today, we got Horseman's latest numbers and they are a doozy: in what was one of the worst Januarys in stock market history, the fund returned a whopping 8%, putting it in the 99%+ percentile of returns for the month (and the year).


Indeed, "crushing it" is hardly new to Horseman: it has been doing so for four years in a row, and not surprisingly, 2015 was its best year since 2008. 2016 is starting off just as good as the prior year.

How did Horseman generate another month of phenomenal returns? In its own words:

This month strong gains came from the short equity book, in particular from the automobile, real estate and EM financials sectors while the long portfolio incurred a loss.
This is what Horseman's sector allocation looks like as of this moment:

Headlines were made last year by the clampdown of the Chinese authorities on the Macau casinos, who had been allowing Chinese residents to move their winnings out of China. However, despite the clampdown and the following fall in casino revenues by some 34% in 2015 (source: Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau), capital outflows have continued via other channels.
Imports from Hong Kong to China jumped 64% year on year in December, but the same numbers released in Hong Kong showed a 0.9% increase (sources: China and Hong Kong customs data). This could be explained by the practice of over-invoicing of Chinese imports from Hong Kong with trading partners that agree to inflate the cost of goods before a letter of credit is issued.
Chinese companies were involved in foreign acquisitions worth a total of $656bn last year and already this year, four of the biggest cross-border deals have involved Chinese groups bidding for US and European assets worth $61.7bn in total (source: FT).
Over the past few years Chinese companies have issued a large amount of US dollar denominated debt (see Russell Clark’s market note entitled ‘Spotting property Bubbles in East Asia’), in 2015 they sold a total of $60.3 billion worth of dollar-denominated bonds, more than six times the 2010 figure (source: Thomson Reuters data). In August last year, as China’s monetary authorities gave the signal that the Renminbi was not immune to devaluations, companies started to reduce their dollar exposure. Recently China SCE Property Holdings Limited said that it would redeem its $350 million senior note due 2017, while another real estate company, SUNAC China Holdings Limited said it had completed the redemption of its dollar note due next year.
China’s currency reserves declined by $420bn over the past 6 months and in January they plunged by $99.5bn (source: PBOC). The fund maintains a short exposure to sectors exposed to a renminbi devaluation such as luxury brands and Chinese property developers, and to other Asian currencies that would also have to devalue, such as the Korean Won and Singapore dollar.
In other words, another adherent to the "China will blow up" philosophy, which it may, however unlike Kyle Bass and a cohort of other China-bearish hedge funds, Horseman is instead betting on select Chinese sector shorts, as well as China's currency devaluation although not by shorting the Yuan, and instead is bearish on the Won and the SGD.

What was the fund most bearish on? Pretty much everything, but a few sectors in particular:

However, what is most remarakable about the hedge fund, is that while it has maintained its gross exposure, as of January 31, the fund's net short exposure has risen to a whopping 76%, an all time high, even for one of the world's most bearish hedge funds.


Finally or those seeking to glean some wisdom from the Horseman's inimitable Chief Investment Manager, Russell Clark, here is his latest letter.

* * *

My wife and I went see to the “The Big Short” the other day. It was certainly very amusing, and explained difficult financial concepts well. I will put it up there in my top three finance based films, along with “Trading Places” and “Margin Call”. I found Margin Call to be the least appreciated of these films, and yet for me most closely matches up to life in an investment bank in the 21st century.

For those that have not seen it, the film centres on a junior risk analyst, who discovers that the potential losses on the bank’s holding of mortgage assets were larger than its market capitalisation. He immediately informs his colleagues, who then pass it onto senior management. One of the recurring themes of the movie, is that the junior low paid staff are all maths and excel spreadsheet gurus, and the upper management are luddites. The junior risk analyst shows his excel model to management, and is constantly told “You know I don’t like these spreadsheets, just tell me what’s going on”. The analyst is eventually introduced to the Chairman of the Board, who asks him to “please, speak as you might to a young child. Or a golden retriever. It wasn't brains that brought me here; I assure you that.”

If you were unfamiliar with the world of finance, you would think this grossly unfair. The brainboxes of the world toil endlessly, while their know-nothing bosses take home the big bucks. However, I think this is wrong. As the Chairman of the Board elaborates, the reason he earns the big bucks is, “I'm here for one reason and one reason alone. I'm here to guess what the music might do a week, a month, a year from now. That's it. Nothing more.” The music in this case would be market prices.

The crux of the matter is that anyone telling you what the market is doing now, what the value of something is now, is providing you a freely available commodity; even if, in the cases of some derivative products, you need to be a rocket scientist to be able to give a valuation today. The real value add in markets is to be able to see what future values might be; that is to live in the future, not in the present.

I spend most of my time, while looking at current prices, thinking about and trying to live six months to one year in the future. Thinking about what will be the reaction to what is happening now, and then thinking about what that means future prices might look like. Generally that has worked well for me.

What I can see now is that US growth is slowing, and that the market is likely to price in reduced monetary tightening.

This should lead to a weaker dollar. This makes shorting Europe and Japan very appealing. Theoretically, this should make commodities and emerging markets (‘EM’) attractive, particularly if you are of the view that US dollar strength is the reason emerging markets and commodities have been so weak. However, I think we have chronic oversupply of commodities, and real financial issues in China that cannot be resolved easily. This makes commodity related areas very unattractive, despite the prospect of renewed monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the reaction to reduced tightening by the Federal Reserve, would almost certainly be more easing by every other central bank in the world. But as we have seen recently with both the ECB and BOJ, monetary activism is not always effective.

I also worry about the prospects of a trade war, as populism becomes the new normal in politics globally. The future for me is now more uncertain than at any time I can remember. Or to fully quote the Chairman of the Board from Margin Call, “I'm here to guess what the music might do a week, a month, a year from now. That's it. Nothing more. And standing here tonight, I'm afraid that I don't hear - a - thing. Just... silence.”

Your fund remains long bonds, short equities
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 06:50:18 AM

Raymond James Analyst Is Out With A Major Bearish Call
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2016 16:15 -0500

Bear Market Central Banks China Elliott Wave Raymond James Robert Prechter Technical Indicators

From Robin Landry of Raymond James

Since the last update the market has fallen to test the 1810 area as seen on the attached chart. The news and various indicators I use are getting more bearish. The world is drowning in debt and the central banks are showing themselves to be powerless to turn the economies of their respective countries around. Now they are moving to negative interest rates which only confirms my view of the world being in a DEFLATIONARY trend that has years to go. The talk of doing away with currency and moving to a digital currency is also showing the desperation. I believe a digital currency is coming much sooner that most people realize. The count shown in the attached chart is the one which gives a little larger view of where I believe the market is headed over the next few months if the top is already in. The rally happening, as I write this, is mainly due to the rally in oil. If the market is to make a new high, as I have suggested in earlier updates, this rally must break through the resistance in the S&P 500 around the 1950 area on increasing volume. If it fails, then the decline will drop to the 1740 area which I have repeatedly said MUST HOLD or the markets are in a MAJOR BEAR MARKET that will test the lows reached in 2009.


A Chief Investment Strategist that I have great respect for has always said that people don’t care whether things are good or bad but ARE THEY GETTING BETTER. The evidence I am looking at does not say things are getting better. THEY ARE GETTING WORSE!!! I have been in the investment business for over 40 years and have found that the charts of the various markets tell me what is going on in the longer term. I have repeatedly said that the Central Banks and the various Governments CAN change things over the short to medium term but THEY CANNOT CHANGE THE LONG TERM.  Cycles have always existed and while they may be skewed to the left or right for awhile they ultimately happen until they are finished.

In Graduate school I took a Humanities course which I hated and was one of the few which I did not make an A in. Life is funny because that course taught me something which has turned out to be one of the most eye opening things I have experienced so far in my 69 years of life and my 40 plus years in this business.

The book used in that course was a book about Civilization.  It outlined the dominance of Eastern and Western countries and how the Dominance changed every 500 years with a smaller 250 year cycle inside that where the major country in that hemisphere also changed. For example, the dominant hemisphere over the last 500 years has been the West. For about 250 years it was Great Britain, then it has been the United States. Now it is time for it to swing back to the East and we can easily see that happening every day in the news. China appears to be the next leader in the world, at least the way it looks now. You might ask what does that have to do with the stock market? Everything!! While the change does not happen overnight, it does happen and involves great turmoil. I got interested in cycles after reading that book in the Humanities class and wrote my Master’s thesis on the stock market. In that process I ran across the Elliott Wave theory. It allows one to map, as best as I have ever found, where we are in cycles at various degrees. One of the things that stands out in the study of cycles is that approximately every 80 years or so there is a Depression and then every 250 years an even greater change which I call a revolution. I believe that is what we are in the very early stages of. In the revolution cycle governments fall and new one’s rise. Look at all the changes going on around the world with everything changing in ways many of us would have never dreamed unless we had studied History and Cycles.

I won’t attempt to explain the Elliott Wave theory in this update. Robert Prechter along with A.J. Frost have written a book titled “Elliott Wave Principle” and explains it far better that I ever could. Elliott Wave International’s website is There you can find his book, newsletter’s and other materials if you want to learn more. The reason I bring this up, I have said in recent Market Updates that if we have already topped out in the stock market, then the market decline will be the biggest one anyone alive has ever seen and the result will be changes in every aspect of life that few people have ever dreamed of. It has been said that because the wave structure pattern can be very subjective that you can have 3 experts in Elliott Wave in the same room and have 3 different opinions. I have worked to take as much of my own opinion out of my analysis by using various technical indicators others have created over the years to help me determine where we really are in the wave structure.

I have expressed my opinion that we are in a large Cycle wave 4 correction and once it is finished a final 5th wave up to new highs will happen before the big downturn starts. Very few other EW technicians agree with me and think the top is already in and the downturn has already started. That is why over the years I have shown charts with my preferred count and my alternate count. What my personal opinion is does not matter. What does matter is what does the wave structure and the technical indicators say. They are telling me we are at a critical juncture. There are numerous supports from the recent low around 1810 down to the 1740 area which I IMHO believe will determine what the true count is. I am hoping for the best but also trying to prepare for the worst. I could go on for hours explaining all the things which tell me why I believe this support area is so important but I do not have the time and my typing skills are almost nonexistent
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 06:52:22 AM

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Martin Armstrong Warns "Systemic Risk Is Rising For All Markets"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/12/2016 15:30 -0500

Bond Deutsche Bank goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Great Depression Martin Armstrong Yen

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via,

We are on the precipice of what can only be described as a rising systemic risk for all markets. The Fed is now hinting that banks should prepare for NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES. This insanity of following the crowd is undermining the entire world economy. The increasingly unstable footing that we find ourselves standing on is reflected in widening credit spreads that demonstrate that CONFIDENCE is indeed collapsing.

The EU Commission will no longer classify government bonds in bank balance sheets as “risky.” Banks would have government bonds on par with “equity” yet government bonds have proven risky and are inferior to what would, in some financial institutions, result in an increased capital requirement.
Turning to Goldman Sachs, we saw the so-called world’s greatest trader close out its long USD trade against a basket of euros and Japanese yen with a potential loss of around 5%, which is being bantered about on the street showing they too got this all wrong. This early 2016 destabilization is stopping out short gold positions, but it is not replacing them with any buying conviction. The euro trade of long Italian 5-year against short German 5-year has also turned into a bloodbath as the euro finally rallied begrudgingly to reach our first resistance target in the mid-113 area.
Global economic growth has been anemic at best; and in the US it is clearly turning down since Q3 2015.
This new world order of NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES is so insane and focuses solely on trying to stimulate borrowing. This is undermining pensions for the elderly and creating the economic storm of the century that is on the horizon that will be far worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Even the Japanese 10-year bond has gone NEGATIVE, demonstrating the total collapse in CONFIDENCE.

Why, you ask?  Because this time, the defaults will engulf all governments at all levels. Like a drunk who just won the lottery, all is always lost in a matter of time.

Bankers in German and Italian banks are looking rather pale in the face. The question is: will the ECB bail out Deutsche Bank or let it fall?


They will probably blink and this will be part bailout/bail-in. They have no way out of this mess created by the euro without surrendering their own power. We are looking at a European credit crunch beginning in the periphery and spreading to the core, just as we are looking at the emerging market debt imploding and spreading to the rest of the world.

The Fed now sees the external threat as systemic and is considering abandoning domestic policy objectives for international policy objectives precisely as they did in 1927, which created a major crisis
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 02:20:59 PM

Is it really 2008 all over again?

By Lawrence G. McMillan
Published: Feb 12, 2016 7:44 a.m. ET

The broad stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is exhibiting some traits and movements that are very similar to those that existed in early 2008. Let’s look at those and then also review the current spectrum of indicators that we follow.

In early January, we wrote an column for this web site entitled “Santa Claus failure bodes poorly for the new year.” That turned out to be an understatement. That was partly based on the fact that there had been similar Santa Claus rally failures in 2007 and 2015.

The market action in early 2016 is very similar to that of early 2008. In both years, the market broke down badly, almost in a freefall, and bottomed just after Martin Luther King Day. And in both years, the January Seasonal bullish period at the end of the month of January produced a positive result. Immediately after the Jan Seasonal ended, the market began to fall again — in both years.

Also, in both years, the VIX didn’t really get too excited — barely reaching 30, and only for a brief period of time, at that.

So what comes next? In 2008, the SPX didn’t penetrate the January closing lows during February, but in March it did, and it went all the way down through the January lows — albeit briefly. The making of new lows also brought on new highs on the VIX. That seemed to be a bit of a washout, and from there, the SPX staged a two-month rally into May. After that, of course, a more serious selloff occurred — breaking to new lows in July. In the fall, the severe bear market followed.

I’m not saying the rest of the year will unfold in the same way, but the near-term action has been holding rather true. If that remains the case, the SPX will take out the 1810 lows in the near term, before finally embarking on a rally that might last for several weeks, or a couple of months.

The SPX chart is decidedly negative. There is resistance at 1880 (Wednesday’s high), 1940 (the peak of the January Seasonal rally), and 1980.

Support levels continue to be broken. In late January and early February, the SPX bottomed near 1870 several times in a 10-day period. But then that level was broken, and a temporary support level was created earlier this week in the 1830-1835 area. That level has now been breached, and the SPX is testing 1810 again. The 1810 area is important because it is not only the January 2016 lows, but it is also the lows of October 2014 and April 2014. If that level gives way, the next support level is 1740, which is the February 2014 low.

Despite the negativity of the SPX chart, the put/call-ratio charts are turning bullish. These ratios have risen to and above the heights of last October, thereby getting into deeply oversold territory. They are now rolling over, and that indicates buy signals. The weighted equity-only put/call ratio is usually a very reliable indicator, and the fact that it is turning bullish as least gives some hope for a short-term rally.

Other indicators, though, have failed to register buy signals. Market breadth has been terrible for a long time, and nothing has changed recently. Both of the breadth oscillators that we follow are on sell signals, and they are in deeply oversold territory too. It would likely take at least two consecutive days of strongly positive breadth in order to roll these over to buy signals.

Volatility derivatives and indices have been something of a conundrum. Considering the depth and speed of the broad market decline since the first of the year, I would have expected the VIX to rise much more sharply than it has.

During the decline last August, the VIX exploded toward 50 intraday, and closed above 40. This time there hasn’t been anything like that. In January, the VIX probed above 30 intraday a couple of times, but never closed above 28.

There are a couple of schools of thought as to why this has happened. One is that traders already have protection in place, and thus don’t need to buy SPX puts or VIX calls now (aggressive SPX put buying drives the VIX higher). The other is that traders are complacent and still aren’t convinced of the need to own protection. I am more inclined to agree with the second premise — that traders are complacent. That’s not good for the health of the stock market in general.

The trend of the VIX is higher, and that is bearish for stocks. In my opinion, the VIX will be in an uptrend unless it closes below 20. That could happen (a close below 20), but it doesn’t seem likely in the short term.

Many of the individual CBOE Volatility Indices are nearing short-term buy signals in one way or another. If the VIX forms a spike peak, that would be a buy signal. Also, if the VIX closes below VXV (the 90-day Volatility Index), that would be a buy signal. Finally, if VXST (the Short-Term Volatility Index) closes below all of the other CBOE Volatility Indices, that would be a buy signal, too. These potential volatility-index-based buy signals are all short term in nature. Most of them gave buy signals in late January, which were effective, but only for a very short-term rally that did not last.

Oversold rallies usually fail at or just above the declining 20-day moving average, and that was certainly the case with the oversold rally that occurred at the end of January this year.

The construct of the volatility products continues to have a negative connotation. The VIX futures are all trading at discounts once again, but the most damaging aspect is that the term structure continues to be negative — especially in the VIX futures. The fact that this downward-sloping term structure has persisted for most of this year is quite bearish. For years, the term structure sloped upward and the market generally continued to go higher. But that is no longer the case, as this downward-sloping, persistent term structure seems to be indicating that this is a longer-term bear market.

The put/call ratios are positive, and they are normally powerful. Several other short-term buy signals could occur, too. However, in the short term, the market is obsessed with oil, Yellen, the yen, the two-year note, etc. As a result, it may be necessary to see short-term oversold conditions build up again, to the point where they can exhaust some of the selling. In line with our thinking that early 2008 and early 2016 are very similar, it may be necessary to violate the January low (1810, in the current year) before finally setting off on a more sizeable rally. In any case, the longer-term outlook remains bearish.

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 13, 2016, 09:44:18 PM


道指收漲313點 美銀憂QE已死熊市漫漫
02月13日(六) 05:00   





後市方面,大行與著名技術大師看法分歧。美銀美林發表最新報告標題為《量化肥佬了》(Quantitative Failure),指出自2008年金融海嘯以來,全球已泵了12.3萬億美元,但成效已失去,直言情況已差過2008年,相信與1998年長期資本管理公司(LTCM)危機相近,並有1937年聯儲局過早閂水喉而引發大蕭條的影子,以及似日本1990年代的通縮旋渦,料標指短期跌穿1,800點,但難言見底,呼籲投資者多持現金或黃金。

不過,自2013年開始不斷估中A股及國指大跌市的著名技術分析師迪馬克(Tom DeMark)表示,相信美股近見底,標指或於未來2至3日內找到底部,底位約1,797點;油價亦會於1至2日內見底。

一直看淡環球經濟的「債王」格羅斯仍保持其淡友本色,坦言全球已進入了「經濟新常態」。他表示,在新常態下,當名義國內生產總值(nominal GDP)跌至-3%,就可界定為經濟衰退,而美國去年第4季名義GDP是-2.9%。故此,他警告已進入衰退了。

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 15, 2016, 07:26:07 AM

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"Killer Wave" Confirms Big Bear Market Looms
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/14/2016 13:45 -0500

Advance-Decline Bear Market China Dow Jones Industrial Average Equity Markets Market Bottom Market Breadth NASDAQ Nikkei Rate of Change Russell 2000

Excerpted from James Stack's,

Technical Evidence: Confirming a bear market

 It’s been 26 years since we developed our Negative Leadership Composite (NLC) to help identify the best buying opportunities, as well as the highest risk markets. It’s pure common sense that broad upside leadership (and absence of downside or negative leadership) signifies or confirms a new bull market. It usually does the same for second or third bull market legs. This is shown when a bullish “SELLING VACUUM” [*1] appears in the NLC. Conversely, broad and increasing downside leadership –shown by “DISTRIBUTION” [shaded region *2]– will always confirm high risk early in a bear market by dropping to -100.

Our challenge, at times like this, is distinguishing whether “DISTRIBUTION” might be caused by temporary factors, which was the case three times in the current bull market – the Congressional showdown over the debt limit, the market’s Fed “taper tantrum,” and the oil price collapse over a year ago. Judging by the depth, duration, and broadening sector contribution to the “DISTRIBUTION” in leadership, we must conclude that Wall Street is currently in a bear market.



The run up in margin debt has also become an increasing concern in the past few years. This represents “hot money” borrowed to buy stocks on margin… that will likely panic as selling in a true bear market progresses.


Note that past peaks in margin debt have coincided with, or led, peaks in the stock market. That was also the case a year ago when margin debt peaked a month before the blue chip indexes. But as we’ve pointed out, the final peak cannot clearly be identified until margin debt falls enough to make new highs or peaks unlikely. Based on the volatile, high volume down days we’ve experienced since the start of this year, we anticipate margin debt may confirm a bear market when reported later this month by tumbling decisively through the support levels of the past 18 months.

Two (almost three) major U.S. indexes already qualify as bear markets…

Investors might be surprised to learn that most foreign stock markets –including London’s FTSE (Financial Times Stock Exchange) Index, the German DAX, and Tokyo Nikkei– are all off more than 20% from last year’s highs. China’s Shanghai Composite has tumbled 46% from its peak last June.

Globally, one of the safest places to be has been in solid blue chip stocks in the U.S. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average are approximately 13-14% off their peaks last May. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Index is within several percentage points of hitting the -20% threshold of qualifying as a bear market.

By comparison, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is already in bear market territory with a loss of -24%. And the premier small-cap Russell 2000 Index has tumbled over 25%.

In summary, the bear market damage to many investors’ portfolios has already proven significantly more severe than what is portrayed by the more resilient blue chip DJIA and S&P 500. Even within the S&P 500 Index, over 60% of component stocks are down 20% from their 12-month highs, while 37% are down more than 30%!

We also find little to cheer about in market breadth or participation. The Advance-Decline Line, which showed a bearish negative divergence with the S&P 500’s secondary peak in November, continues to weaken with –or ahead of– the blue chip indexes.

When the majority of “troops” are in retreat, it can become increasingly difficult for the “generals” to stand their ground. Without a measurable improvement in breadth, we believe this market will continue to struggle in the coming weeks and months.

More bad news...

The Coppock Guide, which has been weakening for almost 2 years, is now confirming a bear market. That’s bad news for the market in the near-term, but has positive implications down the road. This important indicator was developed more than 50 years ago by Edwin S. Coppock and has often been described as “a barometer of the market’s emotional state.” As such, it methodically tracks the ebb and flow of equity markets, moving slowly from one emotional extreme to the other. By calculation, the Coppock Guide is the 10-month weighted moving total of a 14-month rate of change plus an 11-month rate of change of a market index. While that sounds complicated, it’s actually an oscillator that reverses direction when long-term momentum in the market peaks in one direction or the other.

Historically, the value of the Coppock Guide lies in signaling or confirming low risk buying opportunities that emerge once a bear market bottom is in place (black dotted lines on the graph below). And since market bottoms are typically sudden V-shaped reversals, it works amazingly well – as it did shortly after the bottom in 2009.

Unfortunately, the Coppock Guide is generally not as useful in identifying market peaks. One reason is that bull market tops are usually slow, rounding formations in which momentum –and the Coppock Guide– peak up to a year or more ahead of the market. Yet there are certain instances when it has proven invaluable at a market top…

In the late 1960s a technician named Don Hahn observed another phenomenon about the Coppock Guide. When a double top occurs without the graph falling to “0” –a phenomenon that Hahn referred to as a “Killer Wave”– it confirms an extended bull market where psychological excesses can reach extremes. In those situations, the appearance of a second peak generally means a bear market has just begun or is not far off (see red dashed lines). The late 1990s was an exception.

Killer Waves are rare, and they can be dangerous. This is only the 8th bull market in the past 95 years to see a double top in the Coppock. The table at right shows that in 5 of the previous cases the second peaks were associated with the start of the more notorious bear markets of the past century: 1929, 1969, 1973, 2000, and 2007.

The Coppock Guide is now projected to drop through “0” in February, which in the past carries over a 75% probability that a bear market has taken hold. Of course, that does not mean the bear market will soon end, and it would be foolish to attempt to second guess when or where the Coppock might bottom. But the more important message for defensive investors is this: Once the Coppock Guide does hit bottom and turns upward –by even 1 point– we will be presented with one of those historical buying opportunities that comes around only once or twice a decade. We can’t rush it… and we certainly can’t forecast it… but we can look forward to it and quickly recognize it when it does occur. So be patient, stay defensive, and remember that there is light at the end of the tunnel
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 15, 2016, 08:43:53 AM

Fight or flight? Threat of black swan events spooks investors
Andrew Osterland, special to
Wednesday, 10 Feb 2016 | 8:00 AM ET
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Black swans, it turns out, are not that rare a bird, after all. In Australia and New Zealand, there are hundreds of thousands of them. Imported by private collectors, black swans have also spread to the wild in the United Kingdom and are bullying their white (also called "mute") swan cousins for territory.

In the investment context, "black swan events" may also be less rare than formerly thought. The concept, popularized by New York University professor — and former derivatives trader — Nicholas Nassim Taleb, is intended to describe unexpected events that have very big consequences. They don't have to be negative, but they do have a profound effect on the economies and markets they disrupt.

Mayo5 | E+ | Getty Images
Usually, black swans in financial markets are meant to refer to big, bad panics characterized by massive waves of selling. Asset prices formerly thought to be uncorrelated fall en masse, and liquidity evaporates. In other words, something like 2008.

"These are extreme events characterized by massive outflows from all risky assets, creating a systemic financial crisis," said Roger Aliaga-Díaz, a senior economist with Vanguard's investment strategy group. "All risk assets tend to perform poorly, and there's a general flight to quality by investors."

With a bona fide black swan in our recent past, it's a fair question to ask whether others could be lurking in the weeds. Is the increase in volatility this year a prelude to a bigger fall in the markets? What might trigger a more severe loss of confidence, and how — if at all — can investors protect themselves from such a scenario?

Answers are hard to come by. Black swans, by definition, are hard to predict and typically cause a major shift in the prevailing perceptions of investors. Neither market analysts nor media outlets are likely to be reliable guides for when and where potential black swans might emerge again.

Businessman at fork of stone pathway in water
Investors keen to cut risk amid market turbulence
"Black swan events are things you don't imagine as you're going into them, but they seem logical in hindsight," said Wesley Phoa, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Capital Group, manager of American Funds. "Our job is to try to imagine what those things might be and to come up with game plans to deal with them."

A shortlist of potential events that Phoa thinks could cause major volatility in financial markets include the following:

A major devaluation of the Chinese yuan (likely sparking a wave of other currency devaluations).
The imposition of more draconian capital controls by Chinese policymakers.
The default of Petrobras, the giant energy company majority owned by the Brazilian government.
The U.K.'s votes to leave the European Union sometime this year or next.
A war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Any and all of these events could seriously affect investor sentiment across global markets and reduce their appetite for risk. Other political or economic developments could wreak similar havoc.

Whether they provoke a wholesale repricing of risk by the markets, however, depends as much on the environment as the event itself. "You have to think about not just what can go wrong but what kind of contagion it might cause across markets," said Phoa.

Leverage is almost always a key factor exacerbating panic in financial markets. As asset prices fall, leverage magnifies the losses and force institutions and investors to sell other assets in their portfolios.

The cascading effect can drive down the prices of even high-quality assets that would normally be considered safe havens for investors.

The situation gets much worse when the leverage is poorly disclosed or hidden. The growth of the "shadow banking" system in the early 2000s is arguably the biggest reason for the failure of the banking industry in the financial crisis.

Yuan China
Beijing's bumpy ride: Gauging China's ups, downs
Trillions of dollars in loans were extended by banks in "off-balance sheet" transactions that were never disclosed in their public filings.

The financial system in developed markets today is far more stable than it was prior to the crisis. The Dodd Frank Act may have deserved the criticism about regulatory overreach, but it has helped put the banking system on more solid footing.

The reserves of banks in the U.S. and euro zone are significantly higher, and leverage is significantly lower. "We've paid for it in terms of economic growth and flexibility, but systemic risk in the financial system has gone down a lot from pre-crisis levels," said Phoa.

It hasn't disappeared, however.

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The two areas most commonly cited as potential breeding grounds for the next black swan event are China and the uncertain outcomes of the ultraloose monetary policies in developed world markets.

The slowdown of the Chinese economy has been a source of concern for global investors for years. The emerging markets, with China as the linchpin, account for more than 50 percent of global domestic product now, and if the Chinese economy is slowing more dramatically than anticipated, the global economy will suffer.

Of late, however, the problem isn't just that the economy is slowing — and likely at a much faster pace than official stats suggest — but that Chinese policymakers are stumbling in their management of it.

The erratic behavior of government policymakers still learning to live with the often-erratic behavior of free markets has shaken the confidence of investors in China's commitment to reform its markets and economy.

Global economy
When China sneezes, Europe markets could catch cold
The government remains obsessed with setting and meeting growth targets and maintaining controlled currency-exchange levels. While it still has enormous foreign-exchange reserves, the Chinese government will be hard-pressed if capital outflows — $500 billion last year — accelerate further.

"Chinese policymakers are juggling a lot of balls now," said Vanguard's Aliaga-Díaz. "The quality of their policy and the communication of it to the markets is not the same as here."

The contagion that accompanies a black swan event is often a result of a major misread of a widely accepted belief. The more we believe in the illusion of control, the more vulnerable we are to losing it in catastrophic fashion. If the central planners in China continue to try and control their economy and resist market reforms, things could get very messy.

The issue of control also arises when it comes to the monetary policies of developed markets. In December the U.S. Federal Reserve ended its zero rate policy of the last seven years, but the real rate of return for risk-free assets has been negative since the financial crisis.
"When prices come down and spreads widen out, it fosters an environment for investors to do better, not worse."
-Jay Leopold, head of U.S. investment risk at Columbia Threadneedle Investments
While few economists would argue with the Fed's ultra-accommodative policy when the financial system was on the verge of collapse, the return to a more "normal" monetary policy is now fraught with uncertainty.

There is also the Fed's multitrillion-dollar securities portfolio amassed in the QE programs that sits like a giant blob astride the market. What happens if and when the Fed decides to stop reinvesting the funds from maturing bonds back into the market?

"We have no data points to suggest what could happen," said Jay Leopold, head of U.S. investment risk at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. "This has been unprecedented monetary policy."

He added, "It's a classic example of an environment that's difficult to model. We're in uncharted territory."

Interest rates
Uncertain liftoff as short-term rates start rising
Black swans are scary things, but if avoiding them were investors' sole concern, they would never put their money in the markets. "I'm a bond guy; my job is to worry. But if you spend too much time dwelling on the negatives, you become overly conservative," said Phoa at Capital Group.

The uptick in volatility over the past six months is a good reminder that investing involves risks, and it may be a form of inoculation against a more acute loss of confidence in financial markets.

"The volatility today is creating opportunities for more reasonable rates of return on risk," said Leopold at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

Like all good financial advisors, Leopold suggests investors diversify their risks and stick to their investment process.

"When prices come down and spreads widen out, it fosters an environment for investors to do better, not worse," he said.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 15, 2016, 10:50:59 AM

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MoneyDJ新聞 2016-02-15 09:38:01 記者 陳瑞哲 報導

美銀(Bank of America)上周五下修標普500指數目標價,成為最新下修美股展望的華爾街銀行。美銀預期標普500指數2016年末將來到2000點,雖然高於上周五收盤價7.7%,但較前一次預估值低9%,且意謂著美股將連續兩年收低。

另外據路透社報導,美國明星對沖基金操盤人羅布(Dan Loeb)已告訴客戶,面對全球股災,旗下基金已採防禦性策略,並大幅增加空單的佈局。在此同時,羅布還透露已減少對中國與原物料曝險過高企業的持股。



MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 16, 2016, 06:55:57 AM

Dow will peak March 23…just after lunch: Analyst
Kalyeena Makortoff   | @kalyeena
8 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks have entered bear market territory, and any rallies from here are just opportunities to sell — not buy, a number of analysts have told CNBC.

Charles Newsome, a divisional director at Investec Wealth and Investment, told CNBC Monday that rising equity prices, including the 7.2 percent surge on the Nikkei and a two day rally across European stocks, are only temporary moves in a prolonged downward cycle that should be carefully considered.

He says the bear market — defined as a market condition where prices fall and negative sentiment causes the drop to become self-sustaining — was already in motion as of May 2015, after a seven-year upward trend. And if historical moves are any indication, Newsome said, investors have up to four months left where "any rallies are an opportunity to sell not buy," he wrote in a note to CNBC.

Not everyone believes markets are turning in though, with those like BMO Capital Markets' chief investment strategist Brian Belski telling CNBC just weeks ago that downward moves are just a healthy correction in a bull market set to last 15 to 20 years.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
We are in a 20-year bull market: BMO's Belski
Others, like Newsome suggest optimists just aren't facing the facts. He said investors have gone "overboard" with the recent market rally, forgetting too quickly that quantitative easing efforts by central banks have pushed asset prices too high, while global growth has stayed far too low.
Dumping the Dow?

But it may not be time to dump all your stocks just yet — at least not until current rally runs its course.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average , for example, will hit its peak on Wednesday, March 23rd, specifically "after lunch," Robin Griffiths, the chief technical strategist at the ECU Group told CNBC.

He says hedge funds, bargain-seeking traders, and investors who want to prove we're still in bull market territory, have helped drive up Dow stock valuations in recent sessions. But once the stock reaches overhead resistance levels — the price level which asset prices find difficulty breaking through — hedge funds will renew their short positions as the global economy continues to cool.

"The final low of the bear market isn't even this year, it's next year. But this is a ^ good rally and I think it will surprise people how good it is," Griffiths said.

"What you should be doing is using it as a selling opportunity to go defensive," he explained pointing out that it'd be wise to hold onto utilities, consumer staples, telecoms and even Google — that is, companies with services that stay essential, despite a downturn.

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 16, 2016, 06:57:24 AM

Only the Fed can save stocks now: Deutsche Bank
Matt Clinch   | @mattclinch81
10 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
The prolonged sell-off in risk assets across the globe will only abate if the U.S. Federal Reserve changes its path and begins to loosen its monetary policy once again, according to strategists at Deutsche Bank.

Chinese growth fears, stress in the U.S. energy sector and fragile balance sheets in European financial companies have all been credited in the last week for fueling the sell-off. However, there's only one real cure for this current bout of weakness, according to a team of European equity analysts at the German bank, led by Sebastian Raedler.

"Without policy intervention, there is more downside risk for equities," the bank said in a note entailed "The smell of default" on Monday.

Janet Yellen
Jonathan Ernst | Reuters
Janet Yellen
A major focus for the analysts has been rising bond yields on riskier corporate debt in the U.S.. This has been seen as a sign of an end of the current credit cycle, which in turn could that could pave way for a number of defaults in the country, the bank noted. Raedler said that U.S. high-yield spreads – the difference between investment grade and non-investment grade bonds - have risen above their 2011 peak and warned of the potential for a self-fulfilling "full default cycle." He highlighted the stress had started with energy firms - that have been hit by the oil price plunge – but added that it wasn't confined to this sector
"To avoid a further rise in U.S. defaults, we will likely need to see a Fed relent, leading to a sustainable drop in the dollar, higher oil prices and reduced energy balance sheet stress," the bank said in the report.
The problem for investors is that there is little sign of the Fed wanting to change course, Raedler added. Data last week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that U.S. firms were continuing to hire with 5.6 million job openings in December 2015, up from 5.43 million job openings in November.

Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 11, 2016.
Yellen: Negative rates not 'off the table'
Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa.
Senator to Yellen: Forget stock drop, normalize
A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Can the Fed see eye to eye with markets?: Expert

Rather than cutting, these data are likely to leave the U.S. central bank on course for more rate hikes after it decided to tighten policy at its December meeting last year. However, Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounded a more cautious tone in her testimony to Congress on Thursday.
Equities have been roiled this year with the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index down 12 percent and the S&P 500 already losing nearly 9 percent, both on course for their worst year since the 2008 financial crisis. Deutsche Bank shares have been at the forefront of the selling in Europe with questions raised over the quality of its balance sheet.
A "full default cycle" in the U.S. would trigger a further 20 percent downside European equities, Raedler said, but would also increase the risk of a U.S. recession. He believes that this rising cost of debt for corporates would reduce their spend on investment and hiring. Falling equity prices would also urge people to save and thereby dent consumption growth, he added.

Recession talk has been a hot topic this year alongside the possibility of central banks using negative deposit rates to stimulate their economies. However David Absolon, Investment Director at Heartwood Investment Management believes that the U.S. economy is not in the "doldrums" yet.
"The Fed is walking a tightrope between being seen to show confidence in the U.S. economy and at the same time acting to navigate against difficult global headwinds," he said in a note Monday.
"The U.S. economy, while anemic, continues to expand," he added.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 16, 2016, 08:08:36 AM

Central bankers 'don't have a clue' - Jim Rogers
by Alanna Petroff   @AlannaPetroff
February 15, 2016: 9:03 AM ET   

Your video will play in 00:03
Famed investor Jim Rogers is warning that financial Armageddon is just around the corner, and it's being fueled by moronic central bankers.
"We're all going to pay a horrible price for the incompetence of these central bankers," he said Monday in a TV interview with CNNMoney's Nina dos Santos. "We got a bunch of academics and bureaucrats who don't have a clue what they're doing."

The Singapore-based American investor said central bankers are doing everything they can to prop up financial markets, but it's all for naught. He predicts their unconventional monetary strategies will lead to a stock market rally in the near future, but deep trouble later this year and into 2017.
"This is going to be a disaster in the end," he said. "You should be very worried and you should be prepared."
Central bankers around the world have been increasingly using negative interest rates to prop up inflation and support their economies, but Rogers said the moves aren't working. He said they are simply trying to rescue stock markets and help brokers keep their Lamborghinis.
"The mistake they're making is, they've got to let the markets sort themselves out," he said.
"It's been over seven years since we've had a decent correction in the American stock market. That's not normal ... Markets are supposed to correct. We're supposed to have economic slowdowns. That's the way the world has always worked. But these guys think they're smarter than the market. They're not."
Related: Rogers wants to buy North Korea
Rogers made his fortune several times over by investing where others feared to tread. He made a name for himself in the 1970s after co-founding a top-performing fund with George Soros. He has also penned a range of investment books and become a fixture on the international speakers' circuit.
Rogers set a Guiness world record between 1999 and 2002 by visiting more than 100 countries by car.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 16, 2016, 08:12:46 AM

财经  2016年02月15日
新恐慌指数预警 美陷衰退机率逾六成






Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 16, 2016, 08:41:57 AM

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回應(0) 人氣(13) 收藏(0) 2016/02/16 08:01
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-02-16 08:01:10 記者 陳苓 報導
CNBC 15日報導,Convergex首席市場策略師Nicholas Colas報告指出,市場觸底有三個可靠指標:第一是標普500指數單日大跌5%,第二是芝加哥選擇權交易所(CBOE)的波動率指數(VIX)衝上40,第三是市場連續幾天出現拋售潮,所有股票的相關係數達到1,目前上述三者都還沒發生,他們決定繼續觀望。
儘管股市頻頻崩盤,用來衡量市場恐慌氣氛的VIX指數卻停留在30左右,不及去年8月的40,也低於2008年金融海嘯時的接近90。VIX交易員Brian Stutland說,他仍在等待VIX展現純然恐慌,股民搶買保險自救,要等到市場陷入此種地步,他才會進場。

CNBC另一篇報導稱,德意志銀行的歐洲證券分析師Sebastian Raedler等人報告表示,FED再次寬鬆,才能解決全球風險資產的拋售潮,FED若不干預,股票會有更多下行風險。德銀該篇報告以「倒債味飄散」為名。

MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 17, 2016, 05:00:55 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 17, 2016, 05:40:18 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 17, 2016, 06:54:46 AM

History says the S&P is headed to 1,670: Technician
Alex Rosenberg   | @CNBCAlex
4 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks may be bouncing Tuesday, but if history repeats itself, the market is going way lower.

So argues technical analyst Todd Gordon. Gordon says the closest antecedent to the current stock market pain came in 2011, when it fell 21 percent from its high in May to its low in October.

"A lot of times, markets will repeat themselves," Gordon said. And if the market falls 21 percent from its all-time high in May 2015, that will bring the S&P 500 to about 1,670, he points out.

That level is "ultimately what we're going to target when this bounce is defeated," the technician said Friday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

This might sound like an outlandish call — but it mirrored the method Gordon used to forecast crude oil in November. With oil trading at $40 per barrel, he predicted that it would fall to $26, based on the idea that it would repeat the 77 percent decline it suffered in the financial crisis.

Read MoreThe chart that says crude oil is going to $26

On Thursday, oil fell as low at $26.05, before rebounding somewhat in Friday and Tuesday trading
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 17, 2016, 07:01:18 AM

The Most Hated Dead Cat Bounce Ever? Wall Street Is Throwing Up All Over This Rebound
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/16/2016 15:09 -0500

Bear Market Central Banks China Credit Conditions Davos Deutsche Bank Japan None Recession recovery Russell 2000 Technical Analysis Yield Curve

For the longest time, it was "the most hated rally ever" and, as even the Davos crowd has now admitted, with good reason: it was all central bank manipulation and intervention, both of which are about to lose all potency forcing even the billionaires to admit that "the trade now is to hold as much cash as possible." As the WSJ summarized three weeks ago, the billionaires' "mood here was irritated, bordering on affronted, with what they say has been central-bank intervention that has gone on too long."

Well, be careful what you wish for, because as Deutsche Bank explained moments ago the central-bank intervention must go on, or else these billionaires will be even more irritated when their stocks crash and they become millionaires first, then hundred thousandaires, and so on.

In the meantime, the markets have rolled over, and after twice testing the key support level of 1,812 in the S&P 500, violent dead cat bounces have emerged every single time.

And yet in an unexpected twist, this time the majority of Wall Street "experts" is not only not cheering this rally on but is urging anyone who cares to listen to use it to liquidate positions; in fact thus may well be the "most hated repeat dead cat bounce ever."

Here are some observations, first from the technicians courtesy of BBG:

MKM’s Jonathan Krinsky says 1,810-1,820 support "unlikely to hold," next test at S&P 500 falling to 1,740. There are “some bullish divergences that give merit to this counter-trend rally, [but] we are hard pressed to think a major low has been put in” Resistance to kick in at 1,940-1,960
Oppenheimer’s Ari Wald says this will be “just another dead-cat bounce” unless internal breadth broadens, investors buy cyclicals, credit conditions improve; sees rally "capped" at 1,965-2,000; he adds that investors should buy large-cap Software & Service names, and sell: “value-based” sectors; Russell 2000; European, Japanese, emerging market stocks
BTIG’s Katie Stockton says breakdowns "abundant in the past several weeks;" views rally “as an opportunity to take down exposure” S&P breaking uptrend line from 2009 low is additional sign rally is merely
Then there are the fundamentals guys, who keeps pounding the drum on selling the rally. Here is JPM's Mislav Matejka:

The key strategy in our view remains to use the rebound as an opportunity to sell. We are cautious on equities for 2016 and look for further weakness in 2H. Equity valuations have improved following the latest bout of weakness, but P/E multiples remain above historical median levels in most regions. The crucial concern is that profits are rolling over. The trailing EPS growth of MSCI World is outright negative at -5%, the lowest since the Great Recession. This is important, as in our framework, the three key lead indicators of the cycle remain: credit spreads, profit margins and the shape of the yield curve, all of which are sending negative signals. The lagging indicators were typically the labour market, actual credit growth and inflation.... Buybacks stocks have been strong outperformers for a long time in the US, but we note that the market does not seem to be rewarding these anymore. The Buyback index has lost 10% relative to the S&P500 since last April.
Here is BofA's Savita Subramanian:

Our S&P 500 forecast framework includes fundamental, technical, sentiment and valuation approaches, and while most still point to further upside for US equities, risks have increased: models now suggests 2000 for year-end, down from 2200. While this still implies attractive upside to US stocks through year-end, unless we see signs of a growth recovery, there may be significant near-term downside to current levels, in our view. Our short-term estimate revisions model has been bearish since September and continues to point to near-term risks; management guidance has grown increasingly pessimistic; and the percentage of stocks with forecast losses is at levels that preceded the last two bear markets
And BofA's chief technicians, Stephen Suttmeier:

The S&P 500 once again attempts an oversold rally on a test of the 1820-1812 support (1800 area). Closing above first resistance at 1872-1882 would set the stage for 1947-1950 (1950 area). We continue to view rallies as sellable bear market bounces and stalling below 1950 would increase the risk for a decisive break of the 1800 area support. Above 1950 is required to put in a double bottom off the 1812-1810 lows, but the double bottom off the late-Aug/late-Sep lows did not lead to new S&P 500 highs
Let's be clear though: none of the above matters, because the second the rally fizzles (and if anything, this week's terrible GDP data from Japan and trade data from China merely made a central bank intervention that much more likely), speculation emerges that :bad news is great again", and stocks soar splatting shorts who are forced to cover, and sending the illiquid "market" surging on absolutely nothing fundamental. As such any technical analysis is particularly meaningless.

It is if and only if central banks make it clear that they will abstain from any market corrective phase, that any analysis based on rational, established metrics - whether fundamental or technical - matters. Until then, the only thing that does matter is whether Kuroda, or Yellen, or Draghi will once again panic and act ouf of sheer desperation, crushing anyone who had the right trade on, but miscalculated the wrong central planner.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 17, 2016, 08:38:01 PM

America's bull market may end soon, but it's not time to hit the panic button yet.
There's a 50% chance that U.S. stocks will dive into a bear market this year, according to a CNNMoney survey of top investment strategists. But most believe the fall would be short-lived.

Global stocks have already tumbled into bear territory -- a drop of 20% or more from the bull-market peak. The U.S. has come close -- investors have heard the bear growling -- but it hasn't hit that point yet.
"There is certainly a decent likelihood that the S&P 500 falls into bear market territory, but it may only be there temporarily," says Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.
Experts aren't alarmed, because they believe a big rebound is coming. The U.S. economy is too strong for stocks not to recover from here, they argue, especially if oil prices finally stop sliding.
They predict the S&P 500 will end the year with a gain of 2.5%, according to CNNMoney's latest survey. That would be a surge of over 11% from stocks are now.
Related: Can U.S. stocks still return 5% in 2016?
A recession is unlikely, says Hooper. Deep bear markets typically occur when a country falls into recession. Right now, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are solid.
Like many strategists, Hooper points to many healthy signs such as extremely low unemployment, cheap gas, decent retail sales and a slight increase in wages.
The U.S. economy is powered by consumer spending. If Americans continue to get jobs and higher pay, that should keep buying strong and the economy chugging along, even if China, Japan and other parts of the world struggle.
"In the absence of a recession, which we do not have and are not likely to for the next year or so, bear markets tend to be short and sharp," says Brad McMillian, chief strategist at Commonwealth Financial.
Related: 20% chance of a U.S. recession this year
So is now the time to buy stocks? Expert views vary.
"Now is the time to be a selective buyer," says Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist for U.S. Trust. He likes big companies that pay dividends. "For an investor with a three to five-year time horizon, this is a good time to increase equity exposure."
The story for much of 2015 was that stocks got expensive. The bull market, which started in March 2009, was getting tired. But the great sell-off in January has eased a lot of those fears.
The S&P 500 now trades at about 15.5 times forward earnings. That's "not at all overvalued," notes Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. To put it another way, stocks are back at valuations not seen since early 2014.
Still, Hogan wouldn't advise going all in. This is the type of market to "average in" any bets on stocks, meaning put a bit of money in at a time.
Related: Janet Yellen: Negative rates are possible in U.S.
In addition to big, high quality companies, stocks related to homebuilding are also worth a look.
"The nascent U.S. housing recovery, combined with a strongly positioned U.S. consumer, makes homebuilders, building products and materials stocks and retailers that cater to the housing market attractive in today's environment," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
But others, like Hooper at Allianz Global Investors, advise sitting tight.
"Although valuations have come down, they are not necessarily attractive enough to begin buying in at this point," says Hooper.
Fund managers -- people who invest for a living -- have the most cash in their funds since November 2001, according to the February Fund Manager survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
It's another sign of waiting on the sidelines to see how the coming weeks -- and maybe months -- shake out.
CNNMoney's Matt Egan contributed to this article

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 18, 2016, 05:05:35 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 18, 2016, 05:44:54 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 18, 2016, 07:00:48 AM

Cashin: I won’t believe in the stock rally until the S&P hits 1,950
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
4 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The current stock market rally is encouraging because it's broad-based, but it has yet to prove itself, Art Cashin said Wednesday.

Stocks were rallying for a third day Wednesday. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped more than 200 points, and the S&P 500 rose above 1,920, a critical early support level, according to Cashin.

However, equities have a bit further to go before they make a believer out of the director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange for UBS.

"It will prove itself if it gets above 1,950. For now we've taken a healthy leap forward. As I say, it's broad, so you've got to appreciate that, but I won't declare 'in' until we talk about 1,950," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Stocks post biggest 3-day gain since Aug. as oil rises
The fact that cyclical stocks — including consumer discretionary, industrials and financials — managed to grind higher after getting beaten up suggests short covering is at least partly behind the rally, he said.

Shares also got a boost from surging crude futures, which extended gains after Iran's oil minister said the country supports a plan floated this week by fellow producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar to freeze output at January levels.

While U.S. crude rose above the critical $30-per-barrel mark, it is important that the commodity proves it can hold those gains, Cashin said. Few people believe talks between OPEC members and non-OPEC producers to stem oil price losses will ultimately be fruitful, he said.

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, said Wednesday on "Squawk on the Street" that a freeze would not be particularly helpful because it caps production near maximum output. Further, he said he worries about supply from the "Shiite axis" of Iran and Iraq.

Both Iran and Iraq have ramped up production and are politically aligned against top oil exporter Saudi Arabia, the predominant Sunni Muslim power in the region.

A general view shows a unit of South Pars Gas field in Asalouyeh Seaport, north of Persian Gulf, Iran.
Iran voices support for efforts to stabilize oil
The S&P 500 can likely rise above the mid-1,900 level, but gains will be capped because the Federal Reserve must eventually raise interest rates, Bannister said.

He chalked up the rally to the perception that the Fed will not hike interest rates at least until the second half of the year, and the sense that China has achieved some stability in its currency, easing fears that it will export deflation to the rest of the world.

The market is likely to progress up in the medium term as calm sets in, Samantha Azzarello, global market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, said Wednesday.

"I'm not going to say the market is irrational, but at the same time, the amount of sell-off we've seen, we just don't think it's justified," she told "Squawk on the Street."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 18, 2016, 07:02:11 AM

After Hours EarningsWatch
Home   Markets   Market Extra GET EMAIL ALERTS
This indicator suggests this week’s stock-market rally won’t last

By Joseph Adinolfi
Published: Feb 17, 2016 2:18 p.m. ET

The yen’s resilience vs. the dollar shows investors remain apprehensive
Shutterstock/Tolga Bayraktar
The dollar is stuck below a crucial support level against the yen.
U.S. stocks are on the verge of logging their first three-day rally since December.

But one widely watched market-based indicator suggests this rebound won’t morph into the sustained recovery that many are hoping for.

The dollar has languished below ¥115 this week, even as Japanese officials warned of more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and weak data showed economic growth in the world’s third-largest economy has remained sluggish — all of which would typically cause a currency to weaken.

The Japanese yen is a popular safe haven, so its continued strength suggests that investors remain apprehensive about the prospects for global equities.

But given the strong historical correlation between U.S. stocks and the dollar-yen exchange rate — which can be observed in this chart — it’s likely that one of the two markets will capitulate, analysts said.

“Would you expect the dollar-yen to go where equity sentiment is going, or equity sentiment to go where the dollar-yen is going?” said Win Thin, chief emerging market currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. “I would expect the dollar-yen to catch up with equity sentiment.”

But not everyone has such a sanguine view of the U.S. market.

Kevin Kelly, a managing partner at Recon Capital, believes there’s more weakness ahead for both U.S. equities and the dollar.

“As a global growth story, the U.S. isn’t going to significantly outperform,” Kelly said.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 18, 2016, 11:50:06 AM

BofA: Market sees 50-50 chance of recession
Fred Imbert   | @foimbert
12 Hours Ago
Breaking News
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Getty Images
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees a 25 percent chance of a recession, but says the market is pricing in a 50 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

"In our view, not only is fear trumping fundamentals, but the fundamentals for the equity market are worse than for the overall economy," the firm said in a note.

It also lowered the number of rate hikes it expects from the Federal Reserve, saying "'gradual' now means two rather than three or four hikes this year, we believe."

Byron Wien
Market hasn't reached ultimate low: Byron Wien
Neel Kashkari
Fed's Kashkari: We're in a 'pickle' over rates

BofAML also lowered its expectations for the U.S. dollar, now forecasting the euro/dollar value to reach parity by the end the year, down from 95 cents, and the dollar/yen pair to end at 110 yen, from 120. It also lowered its year-end target on U.S. 10-year note yields to 2 percent from 2.65 percent.
The U.S. stock market has fallen sharply this year as growing recession fears and plummeting oil prices have weighed on investors.

The Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 index are both down about 6 percent for the year, while the Nasdaq composite has fallen over 10 percent. On Wednesday, the Dow and the S&P were aiming for their first three-day winning streak of the year.

BofAML also said there is a 40 percent chance the Fed may have to either stop raising rates or cut rates before the end of 2016. "Unfortunately, the Fed is only likely to capitulate if there are either significant signs of further financial stress or clear signs that growth is dropping below potential," it said
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 19, 2016, 04:54:05 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 19, 2016, 05:38:32 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 19, 2016, 05:56:11 AM

Poof! S&P 500 says goodbye to correction
 Adam Shell, USA TODAY 8:29 a.m. EST February 18, 2016

At its low point just a few days ago, the Dow was down nearly eighteen hundred points or 10 percent for the year. But the surge is now in it’s third straight day, giving Wall Street the much needed relief it was looking for.

GTY 509763314 A FIN MAX USA NY
(Photo: Andrew Burton, Getty Images)

Out of nowhere, a three-day rally on Wall Street has brought the S&P 500 index back from the brink of collapse, trimming its losses from its record high to less than 10% and pulling it out of correction territory.

What a difference three trading sessions make. Last Thursday at its intraday low, the Standard & Poor’s 500  was down more than 15% from its May 2015 peak and looked like it was on an eventual collision course with a bear market, or a drop of 20% or more. But a sudden, swift and sizable three-day surge has trimmed the large-company index’s loss from its high to a more manageable 9.6%, which allows it to exit from its painful early-year correction -- at least for now.

Winner! S&P 500 exits correction, Dow gains 257

U.S. stocks got off to their worst start ever to a year, dragged down by all sorts of fears -- some real, some imagined -- centered around the big three: plunging oil prices, angst related to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike plans and rising risk of a U.S. recession sparked by a slowdown in China, the world’s second-biggest economy.

But amid all the doom and gloom, a market said to be grossly oversold and a spike in pessimism reminiscent of the fear that engulfed Wall Street during the 2008 financial crisis, a rally was born. Wall Street is now debating whether the bottom is in or whether the rally is just a short-term pop in an ongoing down market.

What gave what looked like a dead market new life?

Here are some theories:

* Rationality returned.  Investors were exiting stocks en masse in a fit of panic with a herd mentality that led to a selling stampede. Fear trumped fundamentals (or actual business conditions on the ground). Some positive headlines on the U.S. economy and the oil patch, where talk of a production freeze has emerged, helped stem worse-case scenarios.

“Calmer heads have prevailed,” Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets told USA TODAY. “The positive economic news this week helps defeat the fear mongers and naysayers that have positioned their portfolios for a U.S. recession. Investors should remain leery of excess negative banter in the marketplace, especially after the markets have gone down” so much.

* Recession fears faded. Investors were pricing in increased odds of recession, but good news Wednesday on inflation at the wholesale level and industrial production, sent a clear message that the economy was still in growth mode.

The better economic news “deflated the fear of U.S. recession quite a bit,”  says Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management.

* Oil roared back. When Saudi Arabia and Russia went public with a plan to freeze oil production levels this week, it was viewed as a first step toward price stability and a sign that key oil-producing nations were finally willing to act to address the supply glut.

That got Wall Street thinking a long elusive oil bottom was nearing. U.S. produced crude rallied 5.6% Wednesday and climbed back above $30 per barrel, well above its 13-year low of $26.05 hit last Thursday.

“We may be close to a bottom for oil prices,” says Alan Skrainka, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management.

Adds Nick Sargen, senior investment advisor, at Fort Washington Investment Advisors: “My view is that the worries about oil and the economy haven’t disappeared. But I’m a believer that Saudi Arabia and Russia are feeling the pain of depressed prices and it is in their interest to try to set a floor for oil. Even if the price doesn’t rise significantly, it would arrest market fears that oil could fall to $20 per barrel or lower.”

The bottom line: Concerns of a 2008 redux have eased -- for now. “At the moment it seems like vindication for those like us that viewed this as more like the stealth bear market of 2011 than the financial crisis of 2008,” says PNC’s Stone
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 19, 2016, 08:23:28 AM

Ray Dalio: Expect lower returns, higher risk
Jacob Pramuk   | @jacobpramuk
19 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Global trends and central bank policy have fueled an environment in which investors should expect "lower than normal returns with greater than normal risk," hedge fund titan Ray Dalio wrote in an investor letter released Thursday.

The Bridgewater Associates founder contended that central banks would "increasingly ease" through negative interest rates and bond-buying. But those methods would have limited effectiveness amid already easy policy, he argued.

"As a result, central banks will increasingly be 'pushing on a string,'" Dalio wrote, adding that "QE will be less and less effective because there is less 'gas in the tank.'"

Ray Dalio
David A. Grogan | CNBC
Ray Dalio
The U.S. Federal Reserve, which hiked from near-zero interest rates in December for the first time in more than nine years, could only boost the economy "a bit" with more easing, Dalio said.

The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank would hold even less sway, as they have already moved to negative interest rates, he argued.

Dalio's sentiments echoed comments he made to CNBC in January, when he contended that the Fed was more likely to ease policy than raise interest rates again. Amid global growth uncertainty and rocky U.S. stock trading this year, the Fed has indicated it plans to stick to its rate-hiking course.

Still, the minutes from the Fed policymaking committee's January meeting showed that officials worried that difficult global financial conditions could spread to the U.S. economy. Policymakers also considered changing their rate hike path and said they would monitor global economic developments like the battered oil market.

Ray Dalio
Bridgewater's Dalio: Fed's next move toward QE
Dalio said central banks' "currency movements must be larger" because they cannot cut rates in some parts of the globe. That creates so-called "currency wars" and increases risk for investors.

"Asset prices have fallen largely as a result of this, together with the deflationary pressures brought about by most economies being in the later stages of their long term debt cycles," he wrote.

Dalio has earned a reputation for market calls. Bridgewater has more than $150 billion under management, and its flagship fund was up 4.7 percent in 2015, versus a 0.7 percent loss for the S&P 500.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 19, 2016, 04:18:38 PM

看回應看回應 | 寫心得寫心得 | 轉寄轉寄 | 收藏收藏 | 列印列印 |

字級設定: 小 中 大 特
回應(0) 人氣(245) 收藏(0) 2016/02/19 13:52
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-02-19 13:52:16 記者 賴宏昌 報導
Thomson Reuters報導,理柏(Lipper)研究分析師Pat Keon指出,投資人持續減碼股票投資部位。根據理柏公布的統計數據,截至2016年2月17日為止當週美國註冊的股票型基金(包括ETF)淨失血56.65億美元、連續第7週呈現淨流出,美股基金就佔了36.45億美元。歐洲股票型基金當週淨失血12億美元、創2014年10月最大賣超紀錄。日本股票型基金淨流出7.95億美元、連續第3週呈現賣超。

投資公司協會(Investment Company Institute,ICI)發布的統計數據顯示,以美國掛牌企業為投資標的的股票型基金已連續11個月呈現淨失血。
霸榮(曾報導,Wells Capital Management分析師Jim Paulsen指出,自1955年以來美國股市評價水準在升息初期都是呈現下滑、直到聯準會(FED)升息循環告一段落之後才會止跌。當然,本益比下滑並不代表股價就會重挫、只要企業盈餘成長能夠跟得上來就沒事。
CNBC 18日報導,史上操作績效最棒(贏過索羅斯)、全球最大避險基金集團Bridgewater Associates創辦人Ray Dalio在寫給客戶的信中提到,受全球趨勢以及央行政策影響,未來的投資報酬率將低於正常水準、風險也將高於往常。
芝加哥聯準銀行公布,截至2016年2月12日當週「國家金融狀況指數(National Financial Conditions Index;NFCI)」報-0.50、創2012年9月14日當週以來新高,顯示美國金融緊縮狀況達到逾3年來最高水準。NFCI包含28項貨幣市場指標、27項來自股市以及債市的指標以及45項銀行系統指標。FED是在12月16日做出近10年來首見的升息決定;NFCI在2015年12月11日當週報-0.61。

MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 19, 2016, 08:49:37 PM

Opinion: This one-two-three punch could drop stocks 30% in 2016

By Mark D. Cook
Published: Feb 19, 2016 5:08 a.m. ET

Energy, currencies, banks spell trouble for investors
Getty Images
A 30% slide for U.S. stocks in 2016 could be more likely than ever. Here’s why.

There are two diametrically opposing forces within the stock-market prediction world — those who believe in market fundamentals and those who follow market technicals, of which I am the latter.

My brother is a market fundamentalist. I am a market technician. And about this market we see eye-to-eye: Stocks have nowhere to go but down.


Is the $100 bill endangered?(4:27)
The $100 bill is one of America's most popular notes, but could it be put out of circulation? WSJ's Joshua Zumbrun joins Tanya Rivero to discuss. Photo: iStock

My brother the market fundamentalist sees global stock prices tied to the energy industry woes, which are global and infectious to many ancillary businesses and governments; Second, the economies throughout the world are experiencing violent currency swings, making international trade uncertain. Third, the banks of the world are realizing that loans which seemed iron-clad are in fact not, making the banking sector vulnerable.

“Stocks are going down!” my brother screamed over the phone to me.

I told him that I agree. The energy sector has experienced a devastating decline. Second, the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.00%  is at levels versus world currencies that are literally upside down from the last decade — thus commodity resources of the U.S. are suffering price-wise. Third, bank stocks are in a bear market.

Rarely do market fundamentalists and market technicians agree, particularly in the opinion that U.S. stocks could lose 30%.

The current situation has more clarity for a market technician such as myself. Market technicians are number-crunchers. They arrive at conclusions utilizing formulas and proprietary methods.

Market conditions are alarmingly similar to 1987, 2000, and 2008.
Personally, my proprietary indicator, the CCT, is an overbought/oversold indicator I have used for 30 years. It ties together many large components of the internals of the market to measure bullish or bearish price moves. The CCT formula is the NYSE tick quotation correlated to price movements of indices.

The CCT measures investor sentiment. It recognizes complacency as well as panic. Nowadays the CCT shows a market alarmingly similar to 1987, 2000, and 2008.

The market’s engine is stalling. Each of these bear-market years resulted in declines in excess of 35%. The severity of the decline is indeed a concern, but more importantly is the time it takes from the highs to the lows.

For example, a market low in 2016 would be less injurious than if the low is registered in 2017, because the longer the market experiences anxiety, the more pain there is to relieve. This fact was demonstrated in 1987 when the 35% decline was short-lived and rebuilt quicker. The decline starting in 2000 lasted into 2003 with intermittent attempts to stabilize being showered with selling panics. The demise in prices and time was longer than 1987, making bearish sentiment increase and stalling rallies. Sentiment is a slow-moving, large vessel that cannot be turned quickly.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 05:03:15 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 05:52:02 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 01:57:48 PM

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Weekend Reading: The Bull Is Back?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/19/2016 16:35 -0500

Bear Market Ben Graham Central Banks China Deutsche Bank Doug Kass Dow Jones Industrial Average Evans-Pritchard Federal Reserve Global Economy Japan John Hussman Kyle Bass Kyle Bass Larry Summers McClellan Oscillator Moving Averages Quantitative Easing Recession Tyler Durden Volatility

Submitted by Lance Roberts via,

That didn’t take much. After a three-day rally, the media is back into “bullish” mode suggesting the bottom is likely in and by the end of this year, it’s all going to be just fine.

Unfortunately, history suggests that after such a long unabated expansion risks are substantially higher than it has been previously. Furthermore, as I have repeated often in these missives, in an economy that is driven primarily based on consumption, and such consumption is already weak, it doesn’t take much to “flip the switch.”

Believe it or not, this was a point make by former bull Joseph LaVorgna, Chief Economist for Deutsche Bank, now turned…da..da..dum…“bear.”  (Lord help us, hell hath frozen over.)

This week’s reading list in a continuation of thoughts on the current state of the financial markets, economy and the Fed. Is the recent correction now over setting the stage for the bull to begin its next charge? Or, is the recent rally just a trap drawing unwitting investors into the next sell off? No one knows for sure, but what you decide next could have potentially serious ramifications.

1) Bearish Sentiment A Cocktail For Rallies by Doug Kass via Real Clear Markets

“As I noted both four weeks ago and again late last week, numerous precedents and positive technical divergences have led to our current sharp rally, including the fact that:
Despite the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average recently hitting fresh lows, only about 50% as many New York Stock Exchange-listed companies hit new 52-week lows this month as did so in January.
The percentage of stocks trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages was higher at the recent low than it was at the market’s January low.
The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index recently held at higher oversold levels.
Conversely, the market’s recent leaders have gone on the defensive and become laggards. But as I’ve previously pointed out, leadership changes often accompany a weak overall market — so we have to stay alert.”
But Also Read: The Curious Case Of Surging Transports by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch

But Read: Bert Dohmen Is Uber-Bearish by Financial Sense

2)  Odds Of A Recession At 33% By Next Year by Larry Summers via The Washington Post

“I would put the odds of a U.S. recession at about 1/3 over the next year and at over ½ over the next 2 years.   There is a substantial chance that widening credit spreads, a strengthening dollar as Europe and Japan plunge more deeply into the world of negative rates, and lower inflation expectations will be tightening financial conditions even as recession looms.  And while there is certainly scope for quantitative easing, for forward guidance and possibly for negative rates, it is very unlikely that the Federal Reserve can take steps that are nearly the functional equivalent of 400 basis point cut in Fed funds that is normally necessary to respond to an incipient recession.”
But Also Read: The 4-Horseman Of The Economy Are Here by Constantin Gurdgiev via True Economics

3) Kyle Bass: A Ticking Bomb In China by Julia La Roche via Business Insider

“China’s banking system has grown from under $3 trillion to over $34.5 trillion in assets over the last 10 years alone. No credit system in history has ever attempted this rate of growth. There is no precedent.
What does this mean for Chinese banks? There is a bad answer and a worse answer. The bad answer is that Chinese bank capital – the equity buffer – is significantly overstated. A TBR requires much less capital to be set aside (only 2.5c as opposed to 11c for an on-balance sheet loan) at the time of origination (anyone thinking Fannie and Freddie?). Adjusting reported bank capital ratios for this effect changes reasonable 8-9% Core Tier 1 capital ratios (CT1) to undercapitalized 5-6% levels.
Now, the worse news. TBRs are one of the biggest ticking time bombs in the Chinese banking system because they have been used to hide loan losses.“

Also Read: The China Delusion by Rob Johnson via Project Syndicate

4) Central Banks & The Ongoing Dispute

Negative Rates Are A Failure by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard via The Telegraph
Yes, NIRP Was A Bad Idea by Izabella Kaminska via FT AlphaVille
NIRP Doomed To Failure by Frank Hollenbeck via The Mises Institute
Central Banks Face Credibility Test by John Plender via
Japan Near Ending Of Stimulus by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners
Central Banks Face New World by Caroline Baum via E21
Central Banks Are Clueless by Alanna Petroff via CNN Money
Negative Rates, Deficits & Defaults by Reuven Brenner via Asia Times

5) It’s August 2008 All Over Again by Ken Goldberg via The Street

“The stock market’s path for the next month or two is likely to take its toll on both bulls and bears. This is because of how the market tends to “frack” its way through major peaks and troughs, as some indices peak earlier than others, while others tend to trough earlier than others. If you know which index is leading the others, the solution is simple. Once the leader shows its hand, take the appropriate action in the followers and wait for them to catch up, as the profits should be close behind, right? Maybe. Unless humans are involved. We tend to use coping mechanisms that limit our ability to see what the markets are showing us. That historically results in situations where the herd becomes bullish at major tops and bearish at major bottoms.”
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 01:59:35 PM

Has The Market Crash Only Just Begun?
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/19/2016 21:10 -0500

Black Swan Cognitive Dissonance keynesianism Mark Spitznagel Market Crash Reality

Having successfully called the market's retreat in the fall of 2015, Universa's Mark Spitznagel is not taking a victory lap as he warns Bloomberg TV that "the crash has only just begun."

Investors are facing the most binary "let's make a deal" market in history in Spitznagel's view: choose Door #1 to bet on Keynesianism, central planners, and monetary interventionism; or Door #2 to bet on free markets and natural price discovery.

"There is massive cognitive dissonance here," Spitznagel explains as history teaches us that door #2 is the right choice... but it's not possible to do that today as investors have been coerced to choose door #1, but when door #1 is slammed open "we will see that dreaded black swan monster."

That is what is going on right now:

"Investors want to go with The Fed when it's working - like David Zervos... the problem is, when do you know that it is not working?"
"At some point this stops working..."
"the market is going through a resolution process, transitioning from the cognitive dissonance of Door #1 to the harsh reality of Door #2... if everyone were to change doors at the same time, that is a market crash... it can't be done in a non-messy way.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 05:39:45 PM

To see where the US economy is headed, look at 1986
Matt Phillips February 19, 2016
Amazing: The US avoided recession in 1986. (AP Photo)
Nobody seems to know where the US economy is going.
In recent weeks, stock, bond and commodities markets have signaled rising risks of recession, and industrial numbers looked feeble, even as updates on the health of the all-important US consumer sector remain sturdy.
The divergent data highlight key questions facing the US:
Can the US shrug off the slowdown of China and other economic powerhouses?

Is the sharp decline in the US energy and industrial sectors big enough to pull the rest of the economy down with it?
Are consumers able to pick up the slack to keep the economy growing?
Well, the US has been in a similar position before, just about 30 years ago.

Back in 1986, oil prices were in the midst of an epic collapse, after Saudi Arabia essentially set off a price war aimed at preserving and boosting the Kingdom’s share of the global oil market.
That’s not too far off from the plunge we’ve seen in oil prices over the last couple years. Prices for benchmark crude have tumbled in the neighborhood of 70% since the end of 2013.
Moreover, the Asian exporting behemoth of the time, Japan, had started to slow. (Japan’s growth in 1986 turned out to be the slowest in a dozen years.)

The historical echo of 1986 offers an opportunity for those of us eager to understand where the US economy goes from here.
Here’s what happened back then. And some thoughts about what we can expect this time.
Oil made an impact

Like today, the sharp decline in oil prices most obviously hammered the energy sector. Investment in the oil and gas sector dried up fast.

What happened?

Jobs quickly vaporized, with employment in oil and gas extraction shrinking by roughly 150,000 jobs in 1986 alone.

Of course there was some spillover. Energy-centric cities such as Houston suffered big housing busts as people left town, and declining prices prompted homeowners to walk-away from homes worth far less than their mortgage.
A front page article from the Wall Street Journal in early 1987 spotlighted Houston’s “suburban slums.” Meanwhile, the oil patch as a whole went through a rather severe regional recession.
Slower growth, but no recession

But while the oil bust hammered some regions, the US as a whole never slipped into a recession.

Real GDP growth slowed to 3.5% in 1986, down from much faster clips in 1984 (7.3%) and 1985 (4.2%).

The consumer


Consumer spending did most of the heavy lifting during the mid-1980s as American behavior went through a major transformation.
Since the Great Depression, Americans had been massive savers. But that essentially changed in the 1980s. Americans stopped saving, and opted for spending, en masse.

That spending was fueled by consumer debt, which soared as Reagan-era deregulation opened up access to new forms of borrowing such as credit cards. As a result, household debt loads shot sharply higher during the mid-1980s.
The government

American consumers weren’t the only players in the US economy that underwent a transformation.
Under President Ronald Reagan, the US federal government began running large deficits in order to pay for booming defense spending as well the tax cuts of 1981.

The tax overhaul of 1986 curtailed some of these deficits by raising revenue, but that didn’t take effect until 1987. Meanwhile, the deficit in 1986 was roughly 5% of GDP, amounting to a sizable fiscal fillip for the economy.
No US deficit was bigger until 2009, when the government intervened to offset the Great Recession.
The dollar

In 1986, the US dollar had slid sharply against other major global currencies, as booming US fiscal and trade deficits under Reagan made global investors—already concerned about a return of the inflationary trends of the 1970s—leery of holding the greenback.
It’s true that the weak dollar didn’t ignite an export boom. But, all else equal, it helped the industrial economy weather the slowdown.
The Fed

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, increasingly worried about slow growth and less concerned about a recurrence of inflation, had taken to cutting short-term interest rates, offering the economy a bit of a tailwind.
That was then, this is now

It’s heartening to see that the US went through a similar traumatic oil bust in the mid-1980s and continued to power forward.
But that doesn’t mean continued economic growth will automatically be the case this time around.
Some things are very different. For example, the federal government isn’t providing as much of a boost to the economy. (The US federal deficit last year was only 2.5% of GDP, compared to 5% in 1986.)
And while the Fed was easing back in the mid-1980s, Janet Yellen’s Federal Reserve has seemed intent on lifting interest rates, keeping the dollar at some of the highest levels in recent memory.
That could change, though. A decidedly dovish turn in the tone from the Fed in recent days—along with some decent economic data—has buoyed the stock market, weakened the dollar, and reversed some of the rush to the safety of US government bonds.
It’s a very small sample size, but a shift in those directions is certainly possible. The experience of 1986 shows that the US can endure a bust in its oil and gas sector, regional recessions and a global slowdown. But it also shows that policy makers have to work the levers pretty hard to make sure the expansion continues.
Virtual reality could be a solution to sexism in tech
Katharine ZaleskiFebruary 19, 2016

Interviewing job candidates with virtual reality headsets could remove gender bias.(AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
A new study of software developers has confirmed what women already know too well: Gender bias has big consequences in the workplace.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, looked at acceptance rates for code written by women and men on the massive code repository Github. Developers accepted 71.8% of code written by women when they didn’t know their gender. But when gender was made public, acceptance rates for women dipped to just over 62%.
These results are infuriating—but they’re not surprising. Another recent experiment gave scientists at Yale University the exact same resumes, topped by masculine and feminine names. Scientists extended more job offers, and higher salaries, to the job applicants they thought were men.
Personally, I’ve encountered many founders and executives who warn that they “can’t lower the bar” in order to add more diversity to their tech teams. A woman working at Uber said this to me last month on a phone call; the vice president of engineering at Twitter was famously quoted as saying the same thing. Clearly, many managers continue to assume that people who aren’t white and male must be less talented.

Luckily, the tech world may be on its way to developing a solution. Virtual reality could make the way we hire more gender-blind.
Virtual reality could make the way we hire more gender-blind.
The thought first occurred to me when I tried on a virtual reality headset at a venture capital conference in San Francisco last year. The software instantly transported me to a moonscape. There I inhabited my new avatar—a male truck driver who was tasked with moving cargo across a field of craters. As I played the game, I thought about how my fellow participants were watching me in a completely different body. Their perceptions of my abilities might have been different if they’d met me in person; virtual reality prompted them to value me purely for my brain.
That experience got me thinking: If women could use virtual reality to mask their genders during job interviews, would we see more equality in hiring?
Here’s how a gender-blind interview process might work. As a hiring manager, I’d get a list of candidates who’d already been vetted for their skills through code reviews. These candidates would only be identifiable to me by their avatar names.

Job candidates could choose to project any avatar they chose.
I’d invite the candidates, in the form of avatars, to sit with me for an interview where we would view each other in the same virtual space through our headsets. A candidate could choose to project any avatar they chose. Some women might opt for women avatars; others might choose to appear as men or in other forms altogether. Some men might want to look like aliens. It wouldn’t matter. The important thing would be that I could see the job candidates as they chose to be viewed. That’s better than me projecting my own views on them.
A human resources representative would know the candidates’ real names, so they could conduct background checks if they moved to the final round. But I wouldn’t know the genders of the candidates until I decided I wanted to hire them. I also wouldn’t know their races.
There’s solid precedent for this approach. For decades, orchestras in the US hired many more men than women. Then, in the 1970s and 1980s, the top five symphonies in the US began putting up screens behind which candidates would perform during auditions. Data collected from actual auditions showed that the screens increased the probability that a woman would move out of the preliminary rounds by 50%.
I’m trying out a scaled-down version of blind hiring processes as co-founder and president of PowerToFly, a company that matches businesses with women who work remotely. Many of the women who interview through us never meet their future bosses in person before they get hired. The men—and it’s mainly men who review their applications—rely on the women’s code reviews and read about their past experiences. While they know whether they’re hiring women, they can’t size them up during interviews to see if they’re wearing a wedding ring or how much makeup they’ve applied.
I’ve seen firsthand how this approach can help more women land jobs. One vice president of engineering at Hearst asked us recently if we could find him some men, as his team is now composed almost entirely of women. This VP likes to interview job candidates via text messages. He says it’s the fastest way for him to find out if they have the skills to do the job. But texting is a fairly one-dimensional way to get to know someone.
Virtual reality could be an even more palatable option for gender-blind hiring. It’s time the tech world used its own tools to solve its inherent biases—and stop denying itself talented workers.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 06:15:32 PM

admin | February 20, 2016
NEW YORK, Feb 20 — The dollar’s weak start to 2016 is showing signs of a turnaround as doubts about the economic outlook fade, according to US Bank Wealth Management and Pioneer Investments.

Traders who almost completely rule out a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year are confronted with data showing the US economy is growing at a faster pace than its major peers. A forecasting tool created by the Fed Bank of Atlanta indicates US growth in the first quarter of 2.6 per cent at an annual rate, exceeding 1.6 per cent average for Group of Eight countries, according to Bloomberg surveys.

“Moving to the extreme of zero hikes this year is not based on rational thought,” said Jennifer Vail, head of fixed-income research in Portland, Oregon at US Bank Wealth Management, which oversees US$125 billion. “The Fed’s dual mandate of employment and inflation are both crying for normalisation. It’s going to support our case for modest dollar appreciation throughout the year” against the euro and currencies of commodity exporters.

The dollar’s selloff paused this week, as oil prices rose and eased concern that a global demand slump may spill into the US The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index, which tracks the greenback versus 10 peers, was little changed this week and is down 1.1 per cent this year. The index rose 20 per cent during the past two years.

The greenback is down 2.4 per cent versus the euro and 6.3 per cent against the yen in 2016 as investors scaled back wagers of dollar strength based on Fed rate increase while other major central banks increase monetary stimulus.

Futures traders price in a 44 per cent probability that the Fed raises rates this year, based on the assumption that the effective fed funds rate will trade at the middle of the new FOMC target range after the next increase. The likelihood is up from 30 per cent a week earlier.

Monetary policy

“Divergence in monetary policies still matters,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of currency strategy in Boston at Pioneer Investments, which oversees more than US$240 billion. He said he is “more heartened” to buy the dollar against the euro and the yen.

Data due next week may provide more clues on whether the world’s biggest economy is weathering the global storm. Economists forecast a rebound in manufacturing activities and durable goods orders in January.

A report Friday showed consumer prices excluding food and fuel rose by the most in more than four years in January, adding to evidence that inflation may be moving toward the Fed’s 2 per cent target.

“The risk right now is so skewed to one extreme that the reward favours the pendulum swinging the other way,” Upadhyaya said. — Bloomberg
Source: The Malay Mai
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 07:59:36 PM

星洲网首頁 > 財經 > 國際
2016-02-20 17:58     


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Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 20, 2016, 08:00:54 PM

星洲网首頁 > 財經 > 國際
2016-02-20 17:42     


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Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 21, 2016, 09:14:36 AM

This Crash Will Be Bigger Than 2008 - Here's Why
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/20/2016 16:35 -0500

Bear Market Bond Central Banks China Federal Reserve Japan Quantitative Easing Recession Saudi Arabia Subprime Mortgages


Bert Dohmen, founder of Dohmen Capital Research, is uber-bearish and believes that it is time for investors to panic (before everyone else does) given a potential collapse of the stock market greater than what we saw in 2008.

Here's what he had to say on Thursday's podcast:

"Over a year ago we said that we are now in a transition year from a bull market to a bear market and from a growing economy to a recession—and this could be a very deep recession... we see that we are finally there and more and more people are starting to realize it. But I raise the question here, 'Is it too late to panic?' Because...the advice given by so many analysts is 'Don't panic, don't sell, don't panic.' And I say, 'Yes, panic!' And it's not too late to panic. Panicking at the right time can save you a lot of money...
I predict in this bear market you will see the majority of stocks—majority meaning over 50% of the stocks—selling at $5 or less. Okay, just put that into your portfolio and see if you should be selling some stocks...
We hear other analysts say, 'Oh, this is nothing like 2008' and I agree with that, but I say that because I think it's going to be much worse. 2008 was really a crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage market and the confetti that the Wall Street firms distributed around the world. They took those subprime mortgages, put them into pools, they sold participations in these pools, in these CDOs...they got a triple-AAA rating on all this garbage and sold it around the world and then they started defaulting. That caused ripples throughout the financial system and a global financial crisis, okay; but it was basically a mortgage crisis—that's how it started.
Now, look at what we have currently. We have every major economic zone in the world in financial trouble. You have Japan with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 280%. You have China at 300% debt-to-GDP. China has over $34 trillion of debt and the banking system is flooded with bad loans. The best estimate—and this was two years ago I wrote a book called The Coming China Crisis—and I said the best estimate is that they have $11 trillion of bad loans in the banking system. $11 trillion is the annual GDP of China—this is huge!
You have Europe, you have Latin America in trouble, you have Russia in big trouble, you have Saudi Arabia even thinking about doing an IPO on their big oil company in order to make up for the shortfall of oil revenues. You have every major economic zone in the world in big, big trouble including the US and that is why I say this crisis has the potential of becoming much, much worse than the last one."
Given your outlook, how long do you think this will take to unfold?

"Well, from 1929 to the bottom in 1933 it took four years—probably a little bit less—so that's probably the duration but, you know, you can't forecast those things because the central banks learned something the last time around. They learned how to bail things out, they learned how to change the laws and...they've changed a lot of laws in the meantime. For example, if a bank goes under it's no longer the government that goes to bail it out—they just confiscate the depositors money. If you have a savings account at a bank that goes out of business, they will take part of your savings account to bail the bank out because they now have an interpretation that bank deposits—money that you put in a bank—you actually become an unsecured creditor...
That is the current intrepretation in the West—in Europe and in the United States. It's called a 'bail-in'. So this time around there are a lot of gimmicks that they can use. They've exhausted quantitative easing—it just doesn't work...and now the whole world is going to negative interest rates. In Europe already they have over 30% of the government bonds at zero interest rates or below so if you buy a government bond you are paying for the privelege of owning that bond, of lending the government money. The Federal Reserve just put out a note saying that banks should prepare for negative interest rates...
The world has never seen this and there is no one that knows the eventual consequences of this... This is desperation! The central banks have run out of ammunition and tools...all they have now is just talk
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 21, 2016, 02:43:49 PM

One smart stock-market analyst thinks this is where we’re headed… (gulp)
HENRY BLODGET FINANCE    FEB. 20, 2016, 11:18 PM

1929 stock chart
John Hussman, Hussman Funds
The calm before the storm in 1929…

John Hussman, Hussman Funds
The calm before the storm in 1929…

John Hussman, Hussman Funds
The calm before the storm in 1929…

No one knows what the stock market is going to do, but if you want to get an informed sense of what it might do, it helps to understand what it has done.

And in the perpetual debate about where we’re headed next, one mistake that is often made is confining one’s observation of market history to recent trends instead of the many generations of market data that are now available.

One analyst who does the latter is John Hussman of the Hussman Funds.

Hussman’s reputation has been clobbered of late because he missed the market turn in 2009 and then acted on his more recent concern about an impending crash several years too early.

As the market has struggled over the past 18 months, however, Hussman’s concerns have been partially vindicated.

And those hoping that the recent 15% drop from the peak was just a little bobble in a great new bull market won’t like to hear where Hussman thinks we’re headed next.


Here’s where we are:


1929 stock chart
John Hussman, Hussman Funds
The calm before the storm in 1929…

John Hussman, Hussman Funds
The calm before the storm in 1929…

And here’s where Hussman thinks we’re headed next:


1929 stock chart
John Hussman, Hussman Funds
The calm before the storm in 1929…

John Hussman, Hussman Funds
The calm before the storm in 1929…

That latter chart is a chart of the 1929 crash, one of the most famous in history.

Hussman thinks it also loosely illustrates our likely future.

Hussman’s key observation about that chart — and the charts of many other market crashes in history, the most recent two of which he has correctly forecasted in advance (2000 and 2007) — is that market crashes generally follow the same pattern.

First, in a market in which stocks are highly overvalued (as they are today) and in which investors are increasingly risk-averse (as they are today — see the spreads on interest rates between safe and risky bonds), crashes are much more likely than they are in any other market environment.

Second, crashes do not just happen suddenly — for years everything’s great and then one day the market just falls out of the sky. Rather, crashes develop over many months. And the “crash” itself — the period of massive, near-vertical market losses — generally starts AFTER THE MARKET IS ALREADY DOWN ABOUT 15%.

That’s the insight to note in the chart above.

And because one observation is rarely persuasive, here’s another Hussman chart, this one showing the crash in 1987. Same pattern. Down about 10%-20% fom the top, some failed recoveries, and then, blam.


1987 crash
John Hussman, Hussman Funds
And, for good measure, here are charts of the crashes in 2000 and 2007. Same pattern. A general peaking and “rolling over” for many months, followed by a 10%-20% drop, followed by some stabilization and recovery, followed by a mega-crash.



2000 market crash
Google Finance


2007 crash
Google Finance

Is that what will happen this time?

No one knows.

But anyone who’s feeling comfortable after a strong week in the markets should at least understand that 1) the macro environment most conducive to crashes is still in place (overvaluation + increasing risk aversion) and 2) the way the market is behaving now is exactly the same way it behaved before the biggest crashes in history.

So, neither Hussman, nor I, nor you should be surprised if the market keeps on dropping and doesn’t bottom until it’s down 50% or more from the peak.

As Hussman noted last week in his usual depressing note, a 50% crash would not even be the worst-case scenario. It would just be a normal correction from valuations we reached in 2015. The “worst-case scenario” would take us down 75%

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 22, 2016, 07:34:09 AM

Options market sees 50% chance of massive S&P plunge
Alex Rosenberg   | @CNBCAlex
1 Hour Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks may have rebounded from their recent lows, but the option market still implies a big chance that stocks plummet anew before the year is out.

After falling as low as 1,810 two weeks ago, the S&P 500 Index bounced significantly in the prior week, closing Friday trading at 1,918. But even as stocks somewhat regained their footing, the market's fear certainly has not dissipated.

According to options market data from multiple providers, the December quarterly options expiring at the end of the year imply a 50 percent chance that the S&P 500 will touch 1,600 at some point in 2016. That would be a drop of nearly 17 percent from current levels and a full-year decline of 22 percent.

Read MoreWhy this could be a pivotal week for markets

And it's not just that big moves are generally expected in this more-volatile market. The converse upside level — the highest point which traders think the S&P has at least a 50 percent chance of a touching in 2016 — is 2,110, or just 10 percent above Friday's close.

The dramatic amount of downside traders appear to be bracing for "tells you that this is sustainable fear, even going out six to twelve months," Brian Stutland of Equity Armor Investments said last week. "People clearly think that the downside could be real, and they want protection."

'Fairly significant declines from here'

Trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Trader who called for $26 oil now predicts this

The million-dollar bet on emerging markets

To be sure, the option market also tends to imply more downside than traders actually expect. Most investors are long stocks, and many of the biggest investors — whose trades move the options market—have a lot to lose if stocks drop considerably. This is why options (and particularly index options) are more commonly used to hedge downside risk than to speculate on upside.

Further, history tells us that massive and speedy downside is more common than similar upside moves. That is another reason downside puts are often more expensive (and thus appear to price in higher probabilities) than congruent upside calls.

But the market tends to be more balanced than it is now. Bullish traders will typically take advantage of outsized fear by selling put options, a strategy allows them to take in options premium if stocks don't fall, and to get long the market at cheaper levels if it does.

This time around, few are doing that, Stutland said—allowing the bears to take over.

Whatever the exact cause, the market-implied chanced of catastrophic downside have certainly risen.

"The implied distribution [of potential market moves for the year] has gotten much wider, and much more negatively skewed," longtime options trader Mike Khouw told CNBC. "Downside tends to be overstated in general, but it's still fair to say that the options market is pricing in the probability for fairly significant declines from here."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 22, 2016, 10:27:05 AM

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回應(0) 人氣(293) 收藏(0) 2016/02/22 08:00
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-02-22 08:00:35 記者 賴宏昌 報導
MarketWatch 19日報導,2009年初以來即一路看多美國股市的InvesTech Research總裁Jim Stack在過去一年來開始轉趨保守、最新一期投資建議更直接表示華爾街已步入空頭。他表示,從總經的角度來看,多數指標顯示未來9個月美國經濟不會步入衰退。不過,除了1966、1987年以外,美國股市轉空在其餘時間皆準確發出經濟衰退的預警。Stack的研究顯示,空頭市場通常會吃掉前一波多頭走勢過半的漲幅,在過去85年當中只有1950年代是例外。
今日美國報19日報導,S&P Dow Jones Indices研究顯示,今年迄今標準普爾500大企業調升股利的幅度平均為10.4%。作為對照,2010年以來升幅最高出現在2011年、調漲26.5%,最低出現在2015年、漲幅為13.01%。

瑞士財經媒體《財經和經濟(Finanz und Wirtschaft)》1月22日報導,Zulauf資產管理公司總裁Felix Zulauf在受訪時指出,二次世界大戰以來美國股市空頭走勢平均下跌23%、預估標準普爾500指數本波空頭走勢將下跌至1,200-1,400點(註:若以1,200點來計算、相當於較歷史最高收盤紀錄下跌44%)。Zulauf曾多次獲邀參加霸榮(圓桌會議。
Thomson Reuters 19日報導,美銀美林(BAML)引述基金動向追蹤機構EPFR Global公布的數據顯示,截至2月17日當週美股基金淨流出60億美元。根據理柏(Lipper)公布的統計數據,截至2016年2月17日為止當週美國註冊的股票型基金(包括ETF)淨失血56.65億美元、連續第7週呈現淨流出,美股基金就佔了36.45億美元。
芝加哥聯準銀行公布,截至2016年2月12日當週「國家金融狀況指數(National Financial Conditions Index;NFCI)」報-0.50、創2012年9月14日當週以來新高,顯示美國金融緊縮狀況達到逾3年來最高水準。NFCI包含28項貨幣市場指標、27項來自股市以及債市的指標以及45項銀行系統指標。

MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 22, 2016, 10:59:00 AM

Opinion: Welcome to economic stagnation and stock market dysfunction

By L.A. Little
Published: Feb 21, 2016 3:35 p.m. ET

We should entertain the idea of repeated 25%-30% bear markets followed by cyclical bull markets
In 1968, a nation that was reeling from huge societal upheavals was fertile ground for a populist political wave.

There was the Vietnam War that was raging at the time and would continue for another four years. There was the Great Society push by President Johnson, increasing social welfare while simultaneously attempting to eliminate a racial divide that had remained entrenched for the better part of a century. The stock market responded to all the debt and stimulus with gains of more than 80% for the better part of the decade (1962-69). The accumulation of huge debts, however, eventually came home to roost and the boom of the 1960s led to a decade of market stagnation in the ’70s.

In 2016, with Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump running for president, we are seeing another populist tidal wave — like the one ridden by Eugene McCarthy that changed the tenor of the 1968 Democratic race — engulfing the country. After more than 14 years at war and a financial crisis that crippled the nation, once more we have debts piled to the sky. Our solution has been to create more debt in the hopes of growing our way out of the problem. We have even taken a walk on the wild side with the invention and practice of quantitative easing and negative interest rates in Europe and now Japan.

Just as was the case back then, the stock market's huge run higher is beginning to fade into memory, although this time around we have seen a threefold increase in stock-market valuations rather than a mere doubling. A decade from now, will we look back and see eight or 10 years of stagnation in equity prices? Will we witness a huge range trade that carves out multiple 20% to 40% losses over years with return trips back to those same highs in the intervening years? Might that be the fate that awaits equity investors in the decade to come?

Everyone either remembers or is aware of what happened in the decade- long rally that ensued after President Reagan came to office in 1981, but few remember the agony of the 11 years that preceded that. For a refresher, here are some charts showing what those 11 years looked like.




A lot happened in those 11 years from an escalation of the war to the cessation of it; the resignation of a president; the oil embargo and stagflation; and, eventually, the Iran hostage crisis. Essentially the economy muddled along. Sound familiar?

Today we have an even larger debt backdrop than we had almost half a century ago. Unlike then, though, we have almost exactly the opposite scenario creating what appears to be an almost parallel set of consequences. Rather than inflation creating stagnation, we have deflation dragging the economy to stagnation.

Back then, a 37% and 49% decline in equity prices wasn’t called a crash but instead a bear market. Maybe things are just more dramatic now. Writing in May 2015, I spoke of a potential 20%-50% stock-market decline. It was mostly laughed at, yet the Russell 2000 has already achieved the lower end of that level. In fact, many stocks have already had 20% or 25% corrections over the past year. If you go down the list, you will find plenty with a 50% correction already in place.

Don't expect a crash — expect a continued bleed. Don't expect a dramatic but a moribund pounding over time. We should truly entertain the idea of repeated 25% or 30% bear markets followed by cyclical bull markets. At this juncture, that sure looks like it could be the market’s future path. Don't be surprised to see multiple cyclical bull and bear markets over the next decade resulting from a stagnated world economy — an economy that likely isn't going to change any time soon, given overburdened debt and the demographics of the major equity markets in Europe, the U.S. and Japan
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 22, 2016, 11:00:38 AM

Down but not out, U.S. economy still a beacon of growth

By Jeffry Bartash
Published: Feb 21, 2016 12:03 p.m. ET

Slower growth in 2016 keeps Fed on edge, but economy still stable
Getty Images
The economy isn’t flying high, but the U.S. is doing much better than most other countries.
The United States is still a sheltered harbor in a world of economic tossing and turning, but fresh worries about the way forward are likely to keep the guardians of U.S. growth — aka the Fed — on edge.

A handful of bigwigs at the Federal Reserve will weigh in this week on the economy and the prospect of higher interest rates in 2016. Key members of the central bank were worried enough about a big drop in U.S. stock markets in January to put off another rate hike for a while.

Stocks rallied last week and that could ease some of the concerns. Fed officials still want to see more evidence the U.S. economy is recovering from a fourth-quarter dip when growth sagged below 1%.

Don’t expect a bevy of reports this week to show the economy has found its sea legs.

Sales of new and previously owned homes are forecast to dip in January. Consumer confidence has plateaued after recently touching post-recession highs. Businesses probably increased investment, but the longer-term trend is weak. Even consumer spending, which likely rose in January, did so in part because households spent more on heating as temperatures turned frigid.

For all the recent difficulties, though, the U.S. is growing and creating plenty of new jobs unlike many other countries around the world. Japan might be in recession again. Europe isn’t doing much better. Even China is grappling with the slowest growth in years.

Fed takes foot off pedal
The hesitancy of the Fed was illustrated last week in a speech by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, an ardent supporter last year of raising interest rates who’s suddenly gone cold on the idea.

Senior economist Michael Gapen of Barclays said Bullard’s turnabout “reflected a starkly dovish tone.”

Other Fed VIPs this week, especially Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, may take a more measured tone in an effort to soothe investors and financial markets.

It will take more than just reassuring words, however, and the first wave of economic reports for January and February have been decidedly mixed. That’s unlikely to change this week.

Home sales, for example, likely slowed in January after finishing 2015 on a strong note. Cold weather and a big snowstorm in the eastern U.S. probably played a part.

Yet a steady increase in permits to build new homes suggest a pause won’t last long. Mortgage rates are still very low and the economy continues to generate an average of more than 200,000 new jobs a month, giving more families the financial means to buy despite rising prices.

More worrisome is weak business investment. Companies cut back toward the end of 2015, and with profits flat, many executives talked of tighter budgets after releasing fourth-quarter results in January and early February.

“This has been the weakest business expansion in history,” said Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

A rebound in auto sales in January, along with higher bookings for jumbo jets, will likely boost orders for durable goods. But underlying investment is pitiful. Orders for so-called core capital goods fell 7.5% in 2015 to mark the first drop in three years.

The 2016 presidential election probably won’t make executives any bolder, some economists say. Leading candidates for both parties are promoting policies that many businesses consider harmful.

Read: Mainstream Democratic economists join effort to discredit Bernie Sanders

Perhaps the best news in January is that consumers spent a lot more. Economists polled by MarketWatch predict a 0.4% increase in consumer spending last month.

The catch? Some of the increased stemmed from higher utility bills, not exactly a sign consumers were feeling more confident. Confidence has leveled off after hitting an eight-year high last year
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 22, 2016, 08:36:33 PM

Sovereign Wealth Funds May Sell Half Trillion In Stocks This Year
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2016 07:26 -0500

Abu Dhabi Crude fixed Norway Real estate Recession Saudi Arabia

Last month, we noted that according to JP Morgan, persistently low oil prices are set to create a $75 billion headwind for global equities in 2016.

At issue are sovereign wealth funds, many of which are funded with proceeds from oil sales. For years, producers were next exporters of capital. That is, they funneled their crude revenue into a variety of assets including USTs and other core paper as well as equities and real estate.

All of that changed late in 2014 when Saudi Arabia moved to bankrupt the US shale sector by deliberately suppressing prices. Crude’s collapse meant revenues no longer exceeded expenses and suddenly, producing countries found themselves running deficits. That in turn left two options: tap the debt markets or tap the rainy day, SWF piggy banks.

We’ve seen this dynamic play out in Saudi Arabia where SAMA reserves have been steadily sliding as Riyadh struggles to fund a deficit that amounted to 16% of GDP in 2016 and is set to come in at 13% this year. And then there’s Norway, whose SWF is the largest in the world at $830 billion. Lower for longer crude has hit the country’s economy hard, but competitive devaluations from the likes of the ECB and the Riksbank have prevented the krone from weakening enough to absorb the blow. In order to help shield the economy from excessive damage, the country is resorting to fiscal stimulus which officials are paying for by tapping the oil fund.

To let JPMorgan tell it, all of the above will lead to a $75 billion outflow from global stocks this year. “Assuming selling in accordance to the average allocation of FX Reserve Managers and SWF across asset classes, we estimate that the sales of bonds by oil producing countries will increase from -$45bn in 2015 to -$110bn in 2016 and that the sales of public equities will increase from -$10bn in 2015 to -$75bn in 2016,” the bank wrote, in a note out last month. “There is little offset to this -$75bn of equity sales from accumulation of SWF assets by oil consuming countries, as we expect these countries to spend most of this year’s oil income windfall.” 

That figure, JPM went on to note, “isn’t huge,” but considering the bank thinks retail investor flows may actually flatline in 2016, SWF selling could have a significant impact.

Well according to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, JPM’s numbers are off. By a lot.

If oil prices stay between $30 and $40 SWFI says outflows from equities could total $404.3 billion in 2016 and likely hit $213.4 billion last year.

That's fairly substantial. And even those numbers might well be optimistic. On Sunday, the National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC said oil prices might well "spike down towards $20." “For at least the next few years there do appear to be solid fundamental reasons why oil prices are likely to remain in a trading range, a report reads. That "range" tops out at $45 but is $25 on the low end and if prices remain below $30, it's entirely reasonable to suspect that nearly a half trillion in SWF money could flee global equities by the end of the year.

To what extent that's offset by buying by the likes of the SNB and the BoJ is an open question, but do note that SWFs have more than $7 trillion in total. If even a quarter of that comes out of global markets (and we're talking about fixed income here as well)it would amount to a meaningful reduction in global liquidity just as the world careens into recession on the back of China's rapidly decelerating growth machine

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 23, 2016, 05:03:55 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 23, 2016, 05:53:34 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 23, 2016, 07:06:36 AM

Geneva Swiss Bank Just Called The Top On The "Bear Market Rally", Cashes Out
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/22/2016 14:26 -0500

Bear Market Carry Trade Central Banks China

Moments ago, after having called the bear market bounce for what it was just on February 11, and positioned accordingly to take advantage of the expected 6-8% rebound...

... Swiss private bank Geneva Swiss Bank just called the end of the bear market rally, and has gone back to a market neutral stance.

Here is its reasoning:

Dear All,
Please note that after this nice rebound in equities, we are moving tactically cautious.
Actions taken today: we moved to market neutral (long equities / short index futures) on our new Swiss Tactical Equity Certificate and have bought downside protection on the S&P500 in our portfolios.
We believe that :
This was just a bear market rally driven essentially by hedge funds covering their shorts…
Many risks including China/CNY, Oil supply, US economy, German economy/social situation, BREXIT, earnings growth, high valuations,  still remain in mind.
Investors are losing confidence in Central Banks hazardous monetary policies and buying gold as the ultimate hedge… You might want to read this article on gold I wrote for Citywire last July >>> link
And by the way…
Negative: Major equity indices have technical opening-gaps to be closed (15.02.2016) >>> 1860 for the S&P500 and 2756 for the Eurostoxx50
Positive: something interesting might come out of next G20 meeting in Shanghai. Finance ministers and central bank governors are due to meet on Feb. 26 and 27 to discuss issues including China's excess capacity, oil prices and global growth….
It appears that to GSBank's CIO, Loïc Schmid, the negatives to outweight the positives at this moment.

Furthermore as we noted earlier, while stocks have soared relentless into today's latest short squeeze, not only bonds...

... but the all important USDJPY carry trade...

... have both completely ignored today's move in equities
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 23, 2016, 07:09:25 AM

Two more signs a recession could be coming
Jeff Cox   | @JeffCoxCNBCcom
4 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

Stocks have gotten a lift lately in part from hopes that fears over a recession are overdone. That optimism could be a little premature.

In addition to several other trouble spots, two key indicators are flashing warning signs: income tax withholdings and corporate profits.

The withholdings data show taxes taken out of worker paychecks and are considered by some economists to be a strong indicator of overall economic growth. Released daily by the Treasury Department, the count is a simple nonadjusted measure of how much wages are growing.

Read More'Bad Goldilocks' could be the market's worst enemy
The latest numbers showed a 0.2 percent annualized decline over the past four weeks, compared to growth rates of 2 percent in December and 3 percent in January, according to market research firm TrimTabs.

The data show "the U.S. economy is already stalling out," TrimTabs CEO David Santschi said. He pointed out that the slowdown in withholdings comes as "credit markets are flashing clear warning signs about future growth, growth in building permits and housing starts has pulled back, and manufacturing activity continues to contract."

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the afternoon of August 20, 2015 in New York City.
Getty Images
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the afternoon of August 20, 2015 in New York City.
A continuation in the trend would be a recession flag, Trim Tabs pointed out in a release, though Santschi noted that the month-to-month numbers are volatile.

On top of the other economic problems, corporate profits continue to wane, providing a headwind both for the economy and stock market. Estimates through the year show that the earnings recession is far from over and could last at least two more quarters.

Read More Challenges loom for producers to stabilize the oil market
With 87 percent of the S&P 500 reporting, total blended fourth-quarter earnings have shown a decline of 3.6 percent, according to FactSet. Assuming the trend holds up, it will mark the first time profits have fallen for three straight quarters since 2009.

But the road ahead doesn't get any easier.

FactSet is now projecting that earnings will decline 6.9 percent in the first quarter, a stunning move lower over time considering that in September the expectation was for 4.8 percent growth. S&P Capital IQ had been estimating the quarter to post a 15.1 percent gain in initial projections made in April 2015.

FactSet is not expecting profits to turn positive until at least the third quarter.

There are two primary culprits for the earnings weakness: Energy, which fell 74 percent in the fourth quarter and is expected to slide 93 percent in the first quarter, and the strong U.S. dollar. Companies with more than 50 percent of sales outside the U.S. fell 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter, while those with a majority of sales at the domestic level actually grew 2.7 percent.

Read MoreSlow progress bridging America's economic divide
In the most recent rally, which has brought the S&P 500 back to even for February, investors are hanging their hopes on a rebound in energy prices that will raise economic hopes and lift the market.

However, more sobering economic news could be only a few days away.

On Friday, the government will release the first revision to the fourth quarter's gross domestic product growth. Joe LaVorgna, Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist and a Wall Streeter who has been warning of recession risk, said the new number is likely to show the economy grew just 0.1 percent in the quarter, down from the original 0.7 percent and perilously close to contraction.

To be sure, a recession is not the consensus call on Wall Street, with projections in recent days showing increased optimism. Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, said financial markers are pricing in a 50 percent chance of recession, while he sees a likelihood that GDP will rise 2.5 percent in 2016, though not without stumbles.

"Fears over the prospects of a recession are rising. We do not believe a recession is likely, but we acknowledge that it will take time for financial markets to stabilize and better data to emerge," Doll said in a recent commentary. "Unfortunately, this means confusion and turmoil could be the order of the day for several more weeks or even months."

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 23, 2016, 07:17:41 AM

Is it possible the correction is over?

By Avi Gilburt
Published: Feb 22, 2016 12:22 p.m. ET

As we noted last week, the market can certainly have bottomed, especially when you consider the pattern in the Russell 2000 IWM, -0.49% But we have a test coming over the next week or two which can very well provide us with one more lower low before we consider the correction completed.

I want to start this week with one chart that is making it very hard for me to bearish in the bigger picture, and that is the IWM chart. While it is still possible we can see a lower low, the pattern and technicals are suggestive of the type of bottoming that we experienced in 2011. Moreover, we have an a-b-c pattern into that bottoming region, with what can be argued as a completed 5 wave move down in the c-wave. Of course, I can substantiate another trip down toward that lower trendline and the bottom of the box one more time, but, in the bigger picture, this is a textbook larger-degree bottoming pattern.

In moving onto the SPX chart, as long as we remain below 1975SPX, I can substantiate one more lower low. Right now, we have the potential for a textbook wave 4 flat pattern forming, which is the pattern we have been carefully tracking for the last few weeks. Currently, we have likely completed wave iv in the (c) wave of that 4th wave. And as long as Friday's low holds as support, I am looking up toward the 1947SPX level to complete the (c) wave. This can then set us up for a 5th wave to a lower low into the 1700s, as seen on the 60-minute chart.

However, there are two patterns for which the bears have to watch out, which can place them back into hibernation. The first pattern also assumes we see a drop from the 1950SPX region after we top this week. However, if that drop is corrective, and then we take out the top of this rally off the recent lows, that will have me into the green count on the 60-minute chart, which can take us all the way back to the prior all-time market highs.

The second pattern is if we are able to simply just run right through the 1975SPX region in the upcoming week. The first pattern is one which has much greater potential than the latter, but I will be focusing on the potential for one more lower low as the primary for now. The bulls will have to prove the bottom is in before I can change perspectives in this region.

While we have dropped toward the targets we set up for this correction, I have consistently noted that I do not believe this is the financial apocalypse or the repeat of 2008 that many seem to believe. Rather, I believe this is a larger degree 4th wave correction, with my primary count being a 4th wave within primary wave 3.

But until we start developing impulsive structures off a low, I cannot be certain that the correction has completed. But once we do see such evidence, I still believe that the market has a date with levels well over 2300SPX before I can seriously consider that we have a multi-year top in place. As I have said before, the pattern off the 2009 lows simply does not look complete to me at this point in time.

Lastly, as I have been mentioning several times, I see the potential for 2016 being the year that major commodities, many emerging markets, and the U.S. equity market all bottom, and we begin a global melt up. So, stay tuned, as 2016-2018 will likely be a very interesting time
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 05:00:50 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 05:46:38 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 06:52:25 AM

The fundamental and technical case for S&P to hit 2,000
Stephanie Yang
11 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

With stocks around the world rising Monday, some traders say short-term gains for the S&P 500 should continue thanks to changing sentiment among investors.

Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer of S&P Investment Advisory, said positive economic data could assist a minor recovery for the S&P 500. Among the good news, Gibbs noted that retail sales increased in January, with upward revisions for December. She also cited numbers from core CPI, jobless claims and industrial production that pointed to strength in the overall economy.

"We're seeing sentiment change, things are looking a little better," Gibbs said Monday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "We could see valuations expand a little."

Gibbs said the data could drive up the forward price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500, which currently trades at 16.5 times forward earnings. Tentatively, Gibbs sees the ratio increasing to 17 times forward earnings, or around 2,000.

On Monday, the S&P 500 gained nearly 1.5 percent to 1,945.

Read MoreThe S&P is closing in on a critical level
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, also is targeting a move to 2,000 for the S&P. Driving the short-term move, Wald credits deeply pessimistic sentiment among investors and greater volume into advancing shares than declining shares.

"Underneath the data, the volume trends have been very encouraging," he said Monday in a "Trading Nation" interview.

Specifically, Wald favors reputable, blue chip names to bounce higher than the rest. However, he also warns of another dip in equity prices, once the S&P reaches the 1,965 to 2,000 range.

"[We] still have to deal with this broken trend," Wald said Monday. "We think it's too soon to give the 'all clear.'"
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 07:04:46 AM

"Debt Is The Cause, Not The Cure"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2016 16:25 -0500

Central Banks Deficit Spending Great Depression Keynesian economics Personal Consumption Reality Recession TARP Twitter Twitter Unemployment

Submitted by Lance Roberts via,

Recently, my article on weak economic underpinnings led to an interesting exchange, via Twitter, with Steve Chapman regarding debt and the impact on economic growth.



This question has been a point of contentious debate over the last several years as debt levels in the U.S. have soared higher.

According to Keynesian theory, some microeconomic-level actions, if taken collectively by a large proportion of individuals and firms, can lead to inefficient aggregate macroeconomic outcomes, where the economy operates below its potential output and growth rate (i.e. a recession).

Keynes contended that “a general glut would occur when aggregate demand for goods was insufficient, leading to an economic downturn resulting in losses of potential output due to unnecessarily high unemployment, which results from the defensive (or reactive) decisions of the producers.”  In other words, when there is a lack of demand from consumers due to high unemployment, the contraction in demand would force producers to take defensive actions to reduce output.

In such a situation, Keynesian economics states that government policies could be used to increase aggregate demand, thus increasing economic activity and reducing unemployment and deflation. Investment by government injects income, which results in more spending in the general economy, which in turn stimulates more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The initial stimulation starts a cascade of events, whose total increase in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.

Keynes’ was correct in his theory. In order for government deficit spending to be effective, the “payback” from investments being made through debt must yield a higher rate of return than the debt used to fund it.

The problem is that government spending has shifted away from productive investments that create jobs (infrastructure and development) to primarily social welfare and debt service which has a negative rate of return.  According to the Center On Budget & Policy Priorities nearly 75% of every tax dollar goes to non-productive spending.


Here is the real kicker, though. In 2014, the Federal Government spent $3.5 Trillion which was equivalent to 20% of the nation’s entire GDP. Of that total spending, $3.15 Trillion was financed by Federal revenues and $485 billion was financed through debt. In other words, it took almost all of the revenue received by the Government just to cover social welfare and service interest on the debt. In the financial markets, when you borrow from others to pay obligations you can’t afford it is known as a “Ponzi-scheme.”

Debt Is The Cause, Not The Cure

Debt, if used for productive investments, can be a solution to stimulating economic growth in the short-term. However, in the U.S., debt has been squandered on increase in social welfare programs and debt service which has an effective negative return on investment. Therefore, the larger the balance of debt becomes, the more economically destructive it is by diverting an ever growing amount of dollars away from productive investments to service payments.

The relevance of debt growth versus economic growth is all too evident as shown below. Since 1980, the overall increase in debt has surged to levels that currently usurp the entirety of economic growth. With economic growth rates now at the lowest levels on record, the growth in debt continues to divert more tax dollars away from productive investments into the service of debt and social welfare.


It now requires $3.71 of debt to create $1 of economic growth.


In fact, the economic deficit has never been greater. For the 30-year period from 1952 to 1982, the economic surplus fostered a rising economic growth rate which averaged roughly 8% during that period. Today, with the economy growing at an average rate of just 2%, the economic deficit has never been greater.


But it isn’t just Federal debt that is the problem. It is all debt.

When it comes to households, which are responsible for roughly 2/3rds of economic growth through personal consumption expenditures, debt was used to sustain a standard of living well beyond what income and wage growth could support. This worked out as long as the ability to leverage indebtedness was an option. The problem is that eventually, the debt reaches a level where the level of debt service erodes the ability to consume at levels great enough to foster stronger economic growth.

In reality, the economic growth of the U.S. has been declining rapidly over the past 35 years supported only by a massive push into deficit spending by households.


What was the difference between pre-1980 and post-1980?

From 1950-1980, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 7.70%. This was accomplished with a total credit market debt to GDP ratio of less 150%. The CRITICAL factor to note is that economic growth was trending higher during this span going from roughly 5% to a peak of nearly 15%. There were a couple of reasons for this. First, lower levels of debt allowed for personal savings to remain robust which fueled productive investment in the economy. Secondly, the economy was focused primarily on production and manufacturing which has a high multiplier effect on the economy.  This feat of growth also occurred in the face of steadily rising interest rates which peaked with economic expansion in 1980.

The obvious problem is the ongoing decline in economic growth over the past 35 years has kept the average American struggling to maintain their standard of living. As wage growth stagnates or declines, consumers are forced to turn to credit to fill the gap in maintaining their current standard of living. However, as more leverage is taken on, the more dollars are diverted from consumption to debt service thereby weighing on stronger rates of economic growth.

Austrians Might Have It Right

The massive indulgence in debt, what the Austrians refer to as a “credit induced boom”, has now reached its inevitable conclusion.  The unsustainable credit-sourced boom, which leads to artificially stimulated borrowing, seeks out diminishing investment opportunities. Ultimately these diminished investment opportunities lead to widespread mal-investments. Not surprisingly, we clearly saw it play out “real-time” in everything from sub-prime mortgages to derivative instruments which was only for the purpose of milking the system of every potential penny regardless of the apparent underlying risk.


When credit creation can no longer be sustained the markets must begin to clear the excesses before the cycle can begin again. It is only then, and must be allowed to happen, can resources be reallocated back towards more efficient uses. This is why all the efforts of Keynesian policies to stimulate growth in the economy have ultimately failed. Those fiscal and monetary policies, from TARP and QE to tax cuts, only delay the clearing process. Ultimately, that delay only potentially worsens the inevitable clearing process.

That clearing process is going to be very substantial. The economy is currently requiring roughly $4 of debt to create $1 of economic growth. A reversion to a structurally manageable level of debt would involve a nearly $30 Trillion reduction of total credit market debt from current levels.


The economic drag from such a reduction would be a devastating process which is why Central Banks worldwide are terrified of such a reversion. In fact, the last time such a reversion occurred the period was known as the “Great Depression.”


This is one of the primary reasons why economic growth will continue to run at lower levels going into the future. We will witness an economy plagued by more frequent recessionary spats, lower equity market returns and a stagflationary environment as wages remain suppressed while costs of living rise.

Correlation or causation? You decide
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 07:09:20 AM

Tom DeMark Warns If The S&P Closes Below This Level, It Could "Wreak Havoc To The Downside"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2016 15:02 -0500

The S&P 500 is three trading days from reaching "trend exhaustion," according to infamous technical analyst Tom DeMark. "The foundation of the ongoing rally is suspect," warns DeMark, noting that if the market closes below these key levels in the next three days, DeMark warns "the decline is going to be sharp."


As Bloomberg reports, a top in the S&P 500 would also be confirmed should the S&P 500 finish below 1,926.82 on Tuesday, or close less than 1,917 on Wednesday or Thursday, DeMark said.

If any of those S&P 500 triggers occur, the benchmark index will decline at least 8.2 percent from Monday’s close to 1,786, a level last seen in February 2014, according to DeMark. Should the market top correspond with what he referred to as “bad news,” the S&P 500 could see deeper selling down to 1,736, an 11 percent decline. DeMark sees the ongoing market rally as temporary relief as investors exit short positions.
“We’ve seen some pretty vicious short-covering come in, which has caused the market to move up,” said DeMark. “When that happens, it really plays havoc with the market once the downside move begins.”
“The foundation of the ongoing rally is suspect,” DeMark, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, said in a phone interview. “The temporary buying produces a price vacuum beneath the market and accelerates the subsequent decline. The decline is going to be sharp.”
*  *  *

A handful of chart-based calls by DeMark have looked prescient in recent weeks, including a prediction on Feb. 11 that oil would rally and a Jan. 20 forecast for a temporary bottom in the S&P 500. And traders pay close attention to the levels he suggests
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 10:24:46 AM

Fed's Fischer: Too early to assess hit to US economy from market volatility
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
26 Mins Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Stanley Fischer
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Stanley Fischer
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the central bank simply did not know what course of action it would take at its next meeting, due three weeks from now, and that it was too early to assess the impact of recent market volatility.

Speaking to the energy industry at the annual IHS CERAWeek conference, Fischer stressed that the Fed was data dependent and pointed to recent testimony from Chair Janet Yellen, who said the central bank would be careful not to jump to premature conclusions about the impact of global financial developments on the U.S. economy.
He said that similar periods of volatility had left "little imprint" on the broader economy.

"If the recent financial market developments lead to a sustained tightening of financial conditions, they could signal a slowing in the global economy that could affect growth and inflation in the United States," Fischer said.

"But we have seen similar periods of volatility in recent years ... that have left little visible imprint on the economy, and it is still early to judge the ramifications."

Global stock markets have been on a wild ride since the Fed tightened rates in December for the first time in nine years, which led many commentators to scale back their expectations on further hikes in 2016.

Fischer noted that the core consumer price index had reached the 2 percent threshold, although the Fed's preferred inflation measure - personal consumption expenditures (PCE) - had not. The Fed targets 2 percent inflation.
Fischer said spending indicators picked up in January, pointing to an uptick in economic growth this quarter.

The economist added that he thought it would be appropriate if the U.S. economy recorded more than full employment for a period of time. The unemployment rate is currently 4.9 percent and going lower than that would usually spark worries about inflation, but there has been a recent decline in U.S. inflation expectations, in part due to the low oil price.

"A modest overshoot," of full employment would ensure people who want to rejoin the labor force or work more hours get a chance to do so, Fischer said, and could also help ensure the Fed reaches its 2 percent inflation goal.

- Reuters contributed to this report
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 01:57:25 PM

1 in 4 Americans on verge of financial ruin

By Catey Hill
Published: Feb 23, 2016 5:31 a.m. ET

     874 / VGstockstudio
The rich keep getting richer. The rest of us aren’t so lucky.

According to a survey released Tuesday by of more than 1,000 adults, nearly one in four Americans have credit card debt that exceeds their emergency fund or savings. And that’s partially because many people, in addition to their debt, don’t have a dime in their emergency fund at all: another Bankrate survey released earlier this year found that 29% of Americans have no emergency savings at all.

These numbers mean that many Americans are “teetering on the edge of financial disaster,” says Greg McBride,’s chief financial analyst — thanks to the fact that they might be hard-pressed to pay for an emergency should one arise. “Not only do most of them not have enough savings, they’ve all used up some portion of their available credit — they are running out of options.”

That’s particularly problematic considering that emergencies happen more often than you might think. A 2014 survey by American Express found that half of all Americans had experienced an unforeseen expense in the past year — some of which could be considered an emergency. Indeed, 44% of those who had an unforeseen expense(s) had one for health care and 46% for car trouble — two items that for many Americans are must-pay items, as you need a car to get to work and your health expenses are usually not optional.

Some groups — for example, the 30 to 49 age group — are in worse off than others when it comes to credit card debt and savings. This group is in particularly rough shape, likely it faces child-related and mortgage expenses.

Age   % who say credit card debt is greater than emergency savings
18-29   20%
30-49   26%
50-64   25%
65+   14%
For consumers, the ideal situation is to have no credit card debt and at least six months of savings in an emergency fund (more if you have dependents), experts say. But the reality is that most of us don’t have even close to that (just 52% of Americans have more emergency savings than credit card debt, the Bankrate survey revealed).

The good news: If you have no emergency savings, or more debt than savings, experts say you can remedy that situation. Some recommend paying off your credit card debt first (focus on paying as much as you can on the highest-interest-rate debt and the minimums on all others) and then building up savings, but others say you should try to do both at once. “When you have high interest credit card debt, I recommend saving just enough to cover short-term emergencies (your washer or dryer breaks, your car needs new brakes) — that might be one or two thousand dollars,” says Doug Bellfy, a financial advisor at Synergy Financial Planning in Glastonbury, Conn. “Then attack the credit cards and only then go back and complete building your emergency fund.”

Wan McCormick, a financial planner with Reliable Alliance Financial in Fairfax, Va., agrees with the split strategy: “Based purely on the numbers, one might recommend to focus on the high-interest rate credit debt since it costs more money out of pocket…however, oftentimes, unexpected events happen, and without an emergency fund, consumers with high-interest rate debts usually resort back to loans and most frequently, the credit card, since it is the easiest form of accessing money,” he says. To do both at once, McBride recommends setting up a direct deposit with part going into savings and part toward your credit card.

This story was originally published in February 2015
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 09:10:06 PM

Markets in 'state of disbelief’ over Trump
David Reid   | @cnbcdavy
1 Hour Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
Donald Trump at a campaign rally on December 16, 2015 in Mesa, Arizona.
Ralph Freso | Getty Images
Donald Trump at a campaign rally on December 16, 2015 in Mesa, Arizona.
Following success in the Nevada state primaries, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump looks set to extend his lead in the race for the Republican party nomination.

According to NBC polls, Trump leads in four of six states going into Super Tuesday next week.

Mike Thompson, Managing Director and Chairman at Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services, said he didn't think investors knew how to respond to Trump's run.

"I think markets are in a kind of a state of disbelief. I don't think they've ever seen anything like this.

"The extreme between the two parties is really striking," he told CNBC Wednesday.

Thompson said the election process itself was like something that nobody has ever dealt with.

"It's like somebody broke all the rules.

"Its unfamiliar territory and it's hard to take a historical precedent and apply it in this situation," he said.

U.S. Tax reform

Tax reform has so far been largely absent as a debate topic in the U.S. election race.

U.S. corporations pay 40 percent tax on domestic operations, one of the highest rates in the world according to KPMG.

Thompson claimed levies on U.S. companies were a poor way of collecting revenue and raised less than 20 percent of U.S. government taxes.

"Some people are making the argument that you can create more jobs and income tax from personal income tax receipts by just getting rid of the corporate tax rate" he told CNBC.

"At the same time you vault the U.S. to the premier place, in the biggest unified consumption engine, to be a business owner.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 09:19:17 PM

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"It's All A Short Squeeze" - Goldman Expects A 20% Drop Before Markets Can Rally
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2016 07:42 -0500

Bond Central Banks China Core CPI CPI Crude Monetary Policy OPEC Price Action Primary Market Recession recovery Volatility Yuan

Three weeks into January things were looking rather grim.

Plunging crude, jitters about the ongoing (and increasingly unpredictable) yuan devaluation, and spillovers to global risk assets stemming from an ill-fated attempt by Chinese regulators to implement a stock market circuit breaker got US equities off to one of their worst Januarys in history.

Compounding the problem, it seemed that the market had all of the sudden woken up to two very important (and very interconnected) facts: 1) central banks are desperate, and 2) sluggish global growth and trade look to have become structural and endemic rather than cyclical and transitory.

All of this weighed heavily on risk appetite and the bears stood by and watched as a kind of slow motion panic spread through markets. Since then, things have stabilized. Sort of. Oil is still a huge question mark and barring a Saudi production cut (which oil minister al-Naimi made clear on Tuesday isn’t going to happen) will likely continue to fuel the global disinflationary impulse. Meanwhile, markets are asking more questions about negative rates and central banker omnipotence every day.

For those wondering whether we’ll be riding the short squeeze euphoria wave higher, Goldman’s answer is definitively “no.” In a note out this morning, the bank says short covering and positioning have fueled the bounce and that a sustained rebound is exceptionally unlikely until either valuations get significantly more attractive or inflation expectations stabilize.

*  *  *

From Goldman

Over the past couple of weeks, it would appear that many of the worries that beset the markets through January have faded. But we think it is risky to read too much into price action currently. Volatility remains very high and much of the moves may reflect positioning rather than a genuine change of view about fundamentals. Remember that at the heart of the correction there has been a growing concern about growth and, with it, the risks of deflation.

The rally in the equity market has occurred despite further declines in inflation expectations (and bond yields). In Europe 5 year-5 year forward inflation swaps (which Mr. Draghi has emphasized in the past) have recently hit an all-time low.

Even in the US the market is pricing core CPI inflation to turn negative in 1-years’ time, an outcome that did not occur even in 2008-2009; the 5-year/5-year inflation breakeven rate is only at 1.45% - well below the Fed’s target. Ironically the stabilization in oil prices and EM assets that has been at the core of recent short covering and recovery in risk appetite was probably explained initially more by the fear of weaker data than confidence in a genuine economic recovery. Concerns about a broadening out of the manufacturing downturn in January to the broader economy, together with falling inflation expectations and tightening financial conditions, pushed out the expected timing of interest rate rises. This, in turn, has capped the rise in the US dollar thereby alleviating some pressure on commodity prices and EM currencies.

Another critical ingredient of the rebound in risk assets has been the strengthening of the CNY since February and the narrowing gaps between CNY and CNH. Some would also point to a more stable price for oil which likely led to some short covering and resulted in mining and oil moving to the top of the best performing sector list year to date. However, this may be premature. Hopes of an OPEC deal explained some of the stability in oil prices, but our commodity team expects oil prices to remain volatile and oscillate between $20/bbl and $40/bbl in the near term.

But there has been a roughly 8% rally since the trough – does this mark the start of a sustained recovery in the index?

On the valuation front the picture is complicated. Anything that compares equites to bonds makes equities look very cheap. But on the other hand absolute valuations are not yet cheap – prices have fallen but so have earnings expectations.

As a result, most valuation measures have increased in recent years, leaving equities vulnerable to perceived increases in risks. It is for this reason that we think a continued meaningful rise in markets is not likely unless either valuations have fallen further first, or the macro data shows more meaningful signs of improvement and the fears about deflation shift towards fears of missing the leverage to inflation.

For equities to move meaningfully higher from here, we think valuations would need to be cheaper first (around 11x or 12x forward earnings compared with 14x currently). Without this, the market is likely to remain volatile, but tread water until there is a clear shift in inflation expectations.

*  *  *

In other words, Goldman thinks stocks need to fall some 20% from here before the buyers come out in earnest.

Goldman’s conclusion: there will be no sustained rally until at least one of the following three things occurs: 1) Valuations become cheap; 2) The broad macro data stabilizes enough to shift up inflation expectations and/or; 3) Policy action becomes more supportive.

Put simply, number 2 isn't going to happen. At least not for the foreseeable future. Oil prices would need to rise dramatically, the global deflationary supply glut would need to moderate on the back of a sustained uptick in aggregate demand, and China would need to stop exporting deflation.

As for number 3, monetary policy can't get any more supportive. Literally. Rates are so low that the cash ban calls are rolling in and for a variety of reasons, policy makers across the globe have been reluctant to embark on massive fiscal stimulus programs.

Finally, as for number 1, either earnings would need to rise or else stocks need to fall. Considering the fact that the world looks very likely to careen into recession just as primary market appettite for the bond deals that are fueling bottom line-inflating buybacks dissipates, we know which alternative seems more likely to us.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 09:22:33 PM

The Selling Is Back: S&P Futures Tumble Below 1,900; Sterling Crashes, Gold Soars
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/24/2016 07:40 -0500

Australia BOE Bond Case-Shiller China Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment Copper Crude Crude Oil Dallas Fed Equity Markets European Union France Glencore Global Economy headlines HFT Hong Kong Institutional Investors Iran Japan Jim Reid Kyle Bass Kyle Bass Market Sentiment Markit Monetary Policy New Home Sales Nikkei Nomination Price Action Primary Market Richmond Fed Risk Management Saudi Arabia Saxo Bank Standard Chartered Volatility Yen Yuan

While the prevailing dour (or perhaps sour) overnight mood was a continuation of the weak oil theme which started yesterday after Iran said the production freeze proposed by Saudi and Russia as "ridiculous", and Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi said that Saudi won't cut supply and that high-cost producers need to either "lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” (ideally the latter), risk sentiment was further dented when BOJ Governor Kuroda says he won’t target FX rates or stocks, which is clearly nonsense, and further spooked Japanese asset prices (Nikkei -0.85), while sending JGB yields to fresh record lows as follows: 10-year at -0.055%, 20-year at 0.600%, 30-year at 0.915% and 40-year at 1.035%.

As Bloomberg adds, with the introduction of negative-rate policy, investors particularly banks are investing excess cash in govt bonds yielding more than zero, says Hideo Suzuki, chief manager, forex and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking, in an interview; says there’s a sense among investors that unless they buy positive-yielding debt now, they won’t be able to purchase them. Well there are always positive yielding US Treasurys, though maybe not for much longer.

Going back to oil, it seems that finally the headline chasing algos have run out of steam: "the Saudi comments stating the obvious that the output deal was really not a deal” is weighing on prices, says Global Risk Management oil risk manager Michael Poulsen, with API also pulling prices lower. It’s "maybe an overreaction to things that were clear days ago, so might be some bargain hunters cashing in their chips."

"Once again we are seeing lower oil prices halting the emerging confidence in global markets," added Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. "Lower oil prices continue to raise concerns about EM growth, a credit event among weak oil producers and selling from sovereign wealth funds."

So with the marketwide short squeeze now officially over, global selling of stocks has resumed, dragging down everything from banks to commodity producers as well as emerging markets, while in the US S&P futures have tumbled back down to, or rather just below, the psychological support level of 1900 (and below DeMark's breach level) driven by another day of tumbling USDJPY, but also by the latest surge higher in gold - something which according to Goldman which has by now been stopped out of its gold "short" means systemic risk is once again rising.


Indeed, the bullish euphoria that had gripped markets as recently as Monday is all gone: "It will take some time before market sentiment does turn,” Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV in Melbourne. “It’s still very pessimistic. Most investors are very risk averse. You need catalysts or triggers such as an oil price stabilization, clarity about what the Fed is actually going to do and what we see happening with the Chinese currency and economic data."

How much changes in just 48 hours based on nothing but HFT algo stop hunting price action and a co
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 09:24:04 PM

How much changes in just 48 hours based on nothing but HFT algo stop hunting price action and a confirmation of what everyone already knew: that there will be no oil production cuts.

While the rest of the risk moves have seen the now all too familiar correlations (Treasuries in Europe and US surging as stocks tumble), another notable plunge has taken place in cable which continues to sell on Brexit fears and overnight dropped below 1.3900. Effectively Boris Johnson has had a more favorable impact on the British currency than a few hundred billion in BOE QE - the local stock market should be cheering on Brexit.


Oh, we almost forgot the key event of the night: Trump's juggernaut in Nevada virtually assures him the GOP presidential nomination barring some calamity. The market is desperately trying to explain to itself if this is bullish or bearish for risk.

In summary: European shares dropped the most in two weeks and U.S. stock-index futures also sank. Crude fell through $31 a barrel in New York, after sliding last session, when Iran’s oil minister derided a plan forged by Saudi Arabia and Russia to lock production at January levels. The Russian ruble retreated with Malaysia’s ringgit and the pound weakened below $1.40 for the first time since 2009 on concern the U.K. may exit the European Union. The cost of insuring investment-grade corporate debt rose for the first time in three days, while Treasuries and the yen advanced.

Where markets stand now:

S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 1900
Stoxx 600 down 2.2% to 320
FTSE 100 down 1.6% to 5867
DAX down 2.5% to 9182
German 10Yr yield down 4bps to 0.14%
Italian 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.53%
MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.9% to 119
Nikkei 225 down 0.8% to 15916
Hang Seng down 1.1% to 19192
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2929
US 10-yr yield down 3bps to 1.69%
Dollar Index up 0.22% to 97.7
WTI Crude futures down 3.1% to $30.89
Brent Futures down 2.2% to $32.55
Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,233
Silver spot down less than 0.1% to $15.29
Global Top News
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 24, 2016, 09:25:25 PM

Global Top News

Hong Kong Forecasts Slowing Economic Growth as Tourism Slumps: Economy may expand by 1% to 2% in 2016, slower than 2.4% gain last year
This Is Why Kyle Bass Is Wrong on China Collapse, Says CICC: China International Capital questions parallels between Japan in 1990, China now
Goldman’s Ex-Southeast Asia Chairman Leissner Leaves Firm: Tim Leissner helped build the investment bank’s Malaysia business
Asia Hedge Funds Top Rankings as Jiang Pounces in Panicky Market: Performance by Segantii, Sylebra, Greenwoods, Tybourne shows industry matured in Asia
Steven Cohen’s Point72 Said to Add Ai Yoshino as Trader in Asia: Yoshino most recently worked for Mitsubishi UFJ Securities as equity sales trader
Wanda to Announce ‘Major Deal’ This Week, Chairman Wang Says: Chinese conglomerate has been on an acquisition spree this year
Fortescue CFO Sees $1 Billion Firepower to Further Reduce Debt: Cutting debt remains company’s strategic focus, CFO Stephen Pearce says
Chinese Coal Miners Said to Lobby Government for Price Floor: A request to Premier Li Keqiang was made in January in Shanxi
Looking at regional markets, Asian equities traded lower following the negative close on Wall St. driven by the decline in oil prices after the Saudi Oil Minister dismissed a production cut, while the latest API figures showed a significant build of 7.1mIn bbls. ASX 200 (-2.16%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.85%) were pressured from the open with the latter back below 16000, while sentiment in Australia was further dampened by several poor earnings results from the likes of Fortescue, BHP and Wesfarmers. Chinese markets also conformed to the negative tone, with casino losses leading the declines in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Comp (+0.88%) saw relatively subdued price action amid a lack of any significant catalyst and the PBoC remaining relatively neutral on the CNY reference rate. 10yr JGBs traded higher (10yr yield reached record low of -0.04%) amid weakness in riskier assets while the BoJ also entered the market for JPY 1.26tr1 of government debt.

Asian Top News

Hong Kong Forecasts Slowing Economic Growth as Tourism Slumps: Economy may expand by 1% to 2% in 2016, slower than 2.4% gain last year
This Is Why Kyle Bass Is Wrong on China Collapse, Says CICC: China International Capital questions parallels between Japan in 1990, China now
Goldman’s Ex-Southeast Asia Chairman Leissner Leaves Firm: Tim Leissner helped build the investment bank’s Malaysia business
Asia Hedge Funds Top Rankings as Jiang Pounces in Panicky Market: Performance by Segantii, Sylebra, Greenwoods, Tybourne shows industry matured in Asia
Steven Cohen’s Point72 Said to Add Ai Yoshino as Trader in Asia: Yoshino most recently worked for Mitsubishi UFJ Securities as equity sales trader
Wanda to Announce ‘Major Deal’ This Week, Chairman Wang Says: Chinese conglomerate has been on an acquisition spree this year
Fortescue CFO Sees $1 Billion Firepower to Further Reduce Debt: Cutting debt remains company’s strategic focus, CFO Stephen Pearce says
Chinese Coal Miners Said to Lobby Government for Price Floor: A request to Premier Li Keqiang was made in January in Shanxi
In Europe, equities can be seen suffering once again this morning, with Euro Stoxx drifting lower throughout the morning (-1.9%), taking the impetus from a lacklustre Asian session and with the usual suspects of energy, materials and financial sectors weighing on the indices. Given the aforementioned underperformance, high profile material names BHP Billiton (-7.2%), Glencore (-5.8%) and Anglo American (-6.1%) are all among the worst performers in Europe, while Standard Chartered (-5.2%) have also seen a continuation of weakness after yesterday's earnings.

European Top News

Draghi Has Two Weeks to Map ECB Plan That Won’t Let You Down: When ECB policy makers meet from March 9-10, they’ll consider whether negative interest rates and EU60b a month of debt purchases is enough to revive consumer prices
Bayer Names Werner Baumann to Succeed Marijn Dekkers as CEO: Named chief strategy and portfolio officer Werner Baumann to succeed CEO Marijn Dekkers after April shareholders meeting
Airbus Profit Gains 1.6% on A350 Ramp-Up, Break-Even on A380: 2015 Ebit before one-offs EU4.1b, est. EU4.38b; figures held back by higher development spending; cranks up production after order rush for new jets; says 2016 earnings set to be stable
Peugeot Promises New Profit Plan With Restructuring Complete: To resume paying a dividend, 1st since 2011, from this year’s earnings, 5% oper. margin was more than double 2018 target
Delta Lloyd Shares Surge After Rights Offer Cut to $715m: Bowed to investor pressure and cut the size of a rights offer to EU650m; said in Nov. aimed to raise as much as EU1b
Man Group Declines After Profits Fall on Performance Fees Drop: FY adj. pretax fell to $400m vs $481m y/y, est. $455m
How Low Could Pound Go in a ‘Brexit’? Economists See 1985 Levels: 29 of 34 economists see drop to $1.35 or below on leave vote; GBP already at seven-year low as EU campaign heats up
In FX, it has been a busy morning and certainly so if you are GBP trader with a brief respite in Cable through 1.4000 quickly followed up by heavy selling, talking the pair down below 1.3900, the lowest level since the 2009 crisis. The focus is already on the 2009 lows just under 1.3500. EUR/GBP has been pushed higher, and we are nearing the .7900 level here despite moderate losses in EUR/USD, which has traded below the previous session lows — to just under 1.0975. More bids seen to 1.0950. USD/JPY is lower, but cross/JPY likely to be seeing more of the flow — the spot rate holding off the Tuesday base as yet. GBP/JPY is through 156.00, EUR/JPY 123.00. The oil related currencies are all softer along with WTI and Brent, but no panic moves like we saw earlier in the year. Even, so USD/CAD is back through 1.3800.

Lower crude prices dragged on the currencies of oil exporters Russia and Malaysia. The ruble dropped 2.5 percent and the ringgit fell 0.6 percent.  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.2 percent. Japan’s yen climbed versus all of its major counterparts, strengthening 0.3 percent to 111.81 per dollar.

China’s yuan fell for a fourth day as the People’s Bank of China set its reference rate at the lowest level in almost three weeks. Figures from the nation’s foreign-exchange regulator released Tuesday afternoon showed banks net sold overseas currencies to their clients for a seventh straight month in January. The yuan weakened 0.13 percent to 6.5359 against dollar, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices. The central bank cut the reference rate by 0.04 percent to 6.5302 following a 0.17 percent reduction on Tuesday.

In commodities, it remains all about oil, as WTI futures slid as much as 3.3 percent in New York, below $31 once again this time on the April contract. Saudi Arabia’s proposal to cap output at January levels puts “unrealistic demands” on Iran, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Tuesday, according to the ministry’s news agency Shana. Ali Al-Naimi, his counterpart from Saudi Arabia, said at a conference in Houston that high-cost producers should bear the burden of reducing the current surplus and reaffirmed the kingdom’s commitment to last week’s accord.

Crude is down 17 percent this year on speculation a global glut will persist amid the outlook for increased shipments from Iran and brimming U.S. supplies, which are at the highest level in more than eight decades. The nation’s stockpiles expanded by 7.1 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report Tuesday.

Copper led losses in industrial metals on concerns that rising stockpiles in China signal continued weak demand in the world’s biggest consumer. Inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than doubled to a record since the end of August, bourse data show. Copper for delivery in three months slid 1 percent in London.

On the US calendar there will be some focus on the flash services (expected to nudge up 0.3pts to 53.5) and composite PMI’s for February, while January new home sales data is also due out. The latest Fedspeakers due up will be Lacker who is set to talk on monetary policy and growth, as well as Kaplan later this evening who is due to talk on current economic conditions and monetary policy.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

European equities take the impetus from the weak Asia lead with the usual suspects (Financial, Material and Energy) leading the region lower.
GBP yet again underperforms amid the continuous concerns surrounding a potential Brexit with GBP/USD printing fresh 7-yr lows.
Looking ahead highlights include US services PMI, DoE crude inventories reports as well as comments from Fed's Lacker, Bullard, Kaplan and BoE's Cunliffe
Treasuries higher overnight as global equity markets and commodities, ex-precious metals, resume selloff; U.S. auctions continue today with $34b 5Y notes, WI yield 1.17%, compares with 1.496% awarded in January.
A British exit from the European Union would be so devastating for the pound that 29 out of 34 economists in a Bloomberg survey see it sinking to $1.35 or below within a week of a vote to leave -- levels last seen in 1985.
China scrapped limits on the amount of funds that foreign institutional investors can put into its interbank bond market, the latest step to lure capital from abroad as outflows weigh on the yuan
China International Capital Corp’s economists published a rebuttal of hedge-fund manager Bass’s assessment where he stated that China’s banking system may see losses of more than four times those suffered by U.S. lenders during the 2008 credit crisis
U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew downplayed expectations for an emergency response to global market turbulence when Group of 20 finance chiefs and central bankers meet this week in China
JPMorgan’s investment bank said revenue from sales and trading has tumbled about 20% this year, providing an early gauge of the pain inflicted on Wall Street’s biggest firms by the global market rout battering investors
Donald Trump’s dominating victory in the Nevada caucuses pushes him further out ahead of his nearest competitors for the Republican presidential nomination, giving his unorthodox candidacy a major boost heading into Super Tuesday contests next week
$11.15b IG corporates priced yesterday (YTD volume $255.4b) and $250m HY priced (YTD volume $11.375b)
Sovereign 10Y bond yields mostly steady; European, Asian markets drop; U.S. equity- index futures lower. Crude oil and copper fall, gold rises
US Event Calendar

7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 19 (prior 8.2%)
8:00am: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Baltimore
9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, Feb. P, est. 53.5 (prior 53.2); Markit US Composite PMI, Feb. P (prior 53.2)
10:00am: New Home Sales, Jan., est. 520k (prior 544k)
1:00pm: U.S. to sell $34b 5Y notes; New Home Sales m/m, Jan., est. -4.4% (prior 10.8%)
1:15pm: Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Dallas
7:00pm: Fed’s Bullard speaks in New York

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have been soft over the last 24 hours not helped by China's weaker Yuan fix yesterday and a 4.5% drop in oil. While the fix was little changed this morning (set 0.04% weaker) a further tumble for Oil overnight (now approaching $31/bbl) has kept risk assets firmly on the back foot in Asia this morning. The Nikkei (-1.36%), Hang Seng (-1.60%), ASX (-2.26%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.62%) in particular are all in the red, while credit indices are also a tad weaker. Not helping sentiment is the latest MNI consumer sentiment reading out of China, with the February reading declining 3.6pts to 111.3 and to a four-month low.

The latest twist in the Oil saga yesterday came about as headlines out of both Saudi Arabia and Iran hit the wires. The former’s Oil Minister, Ali al-Naimi, did initially say that freezing output at current levels is the beginning of a process and that high inventory levels will probably decline in due time if we can get all the major producers to agree to not add additional barrels. It was a follow up to this comment which appeared to spook the market however, with al-Naimi warning that ‘this is not the same as cutting production’ and that ‘that’s not going to happen’, while also suggesting that ‘there is less trust then normal’ between nations. Chatter from Iran’s Oil Minister Zanganeh didn’t help, saying that the Saudi-Russia freeze plan is ‘ridiculous’ and that the proposal puts ‘unrealistic demands’ on Iran. ConocoPhillips CEO seemingly summed up the confidence at a corporate level, saying that Oil companies ‘have to prepare for the worst case’ and that you ‘can’t count on a Saudi freeze working’.

Combined with the already dampened sentiment after the CNY fix, it was a broadly weaker day across equity markets yesterday. In Europe we saw the Stoxx 600 close -1.22%, DAX -1.64% and FTSE MIB -1.95%. A softish German IFO survey did little to help with the expectations component in particular down 3.5pts to 98.8 and the lowest since late 2012.

Across the pond the S&P 500 (-1.25%) finished near enough at its lows for the day with a rough session for financials following some bleak but perhaps unsurprising comments about difficult trading conditions so far this year from JP Morgan not helping. Credit markets appeared to largely ignore the intraday volatility in Oil with Main finishing half a basis point tighter and sub-fins also outperforming (5bps tighter). US credit did weaken slightly into the close with CDX IG finishing 2bps wider although a second consecutive high volume session in the primary market kept sentiment relatively upbeat.

Elsewhere, Treasury yields tracked the move lower with Oil with the closing level of 1.723% for the 10y (-3bps) masking what was a pretty big high-to-low swing after yields had crept up over 1.812% prior to the latest headlines. Gold (+1.51%) and the Yen (+0.73%) were the beneficiaries from the broader risk selloff, while Sterling was another sharp leg lower against both the Dollar (-0.90% to $1.402) and Euro (-0.82% to €1.273) and has in fact dipped below $1.40 during the Asia session this morning. Moves have also come following comments from the BoE’s Carney yesterday who said that the BoE has ‘considerable room’ should additional stimulus be required.

Away from the focus on Oil markets yesterday, the US data was something of a sideshow although the fall in consumer confidence did turn a few heads. The February print declined a fairly sharp 5.6pts to 92.2 (vs. 97.2 expected) which was the lowest since July last year with the expectations component down 6.4pts and to the lowest since February 2014. Elsewhere the Richmond Fed manufacturing index reading unexpectedly declined 6pts this month to -4 after the consensus had been for no change. Existing home sales were up in January by +0.4% mom (vs. -2.5% expected) while the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was a smidgen behind market at +0.80% mom for December (vs. +0.85% expected).

Yesterday’s Fedspeak offered some interesting contrasting comments. Kansas City Fed President George argued that a potential March move ‘absolutely should be on the table’ and that ‘at this point I would not say that the data have suggested there has been a fundamental shift in the outlook’. Dallas Fed President Kaplan was a lot more dovish in his comments to the FT saying that ‘in order to reach our inflation objective we may need to be more patient than we previously might have thought’ and that ‘if that means we take an extended period of time where we stop and don’t move, that may also be necessary’. Speaking overnight meanwhile, Fed Vice-Chair Fischer probably sat somewhere in the middle of his colleague’s comments, saying that ‘if the recent financial market developments lead to a sustained tightening of financial conditions, they could signal a slowing in the global economy that could affect growth and inflation in the US’. At the same time however, Fischer also opined that ‘we have seen similar periods of volatility in recent years…that have left little visible imprint on the economy, and it is still early to judge the ramifications’.

Running over today’s calendar, this morning in Europe the only data of note is out of France where we’ll receive the latest consumer confidence print and the UK where CBI reported sales data is due. In the US this afternoon there will be some focus on the flash services (expected to nudge up 0.3pts to 53.5) and composite PMI’s for February, while January new home sales data is also due out. The latest Fedspeakers due up will be Lacker (at 1pm GMT) who is set to talk on monetary policy and growth, as well as Kaplan later this evening (at 6.15pm GMT) who is due to talk on current economic conditions and monetary policy. Away from this the EC’s Tusk and Juncker are due to speak in EU Parliament this afternoon on the outcome of the EU summit with Brexit expected to be a hot topic. The BoE’s Cunliffe is also due to speak tonight.


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 25, 2016, 04:49:35 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 25, 2016, 05:46:08 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 25, 2016, 07:23:03 AM

Stocks won't bottom until managers underweight equities: Cavanaugh
Tom DiChristopher   | @tdichristopher
4 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The market won't bottom until professional fund managers begin underweighting stocks, Voya Investment Management's Karyn Cavanaugh said Wednesday.

But there's a problem. Investors are not yet taking a dim enough view of equities because, despite fundamental weakness in corporate earnings, stocks still look cheap compared with bonds in the current low-rate environment, she said.

The S&P 500 had surged 6 percent since Feb. 11, when JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon announced he had purchased 500,000 shares of his bank's stock. But the rally since the so-called Dimon Bottom was foiled this week as stocks fell back into correction territory.

Equities fell in tandem with oil futures, which reversed gains on Tuesday after Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi dashed investors' hopes that major producers would eventually cut output to stabilize prices.

To be sure, managers are raising more cash, Cavanaugh said, but capitulation selling has only just begun.

"We're talking about episodic volatility. We think this is going to continue, and until we get that full-fledged capitulation, there is a little bit more risk, we think, to the downside," she told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

A gas flame is seen in the desert near the Khurais oilfield operated state oil giant Saudi Aramco, about 160 km (99 miles) from Riyadh.
Schork: Why oil won't hit the $40s this year
Voya Investment Management remains overweight equities and favors large-cap stocks and high-quality companies, Cavanaugh said.

Mary Ann Bartels, a chief investment officer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said she is not ready to underweight stocks, either.

"The market is behaving just like it should behave. Oil, China, the central banks — whether they'll act, whether they won't act — those are all uncertainties," she told "Squawk Box."

Those uncertainties would be on the back burner if it weren't for poor earnings, she added. Without earnings growth, the market has no catalyst to move higher, she said.

Further, volatility is actually below the 25-year average, Bartels pointed out, but investors have gotten so used to the Federal Reserve backstopping markets through monetary policy that moderate volatility is roiling stocks.

The Fed had kept rates near zero since December 2008 until finally hiking them by 25 basis points in December, offering little yield to investors and sending them piling into stock markets.

Krishna Memani, chief investment officers at Oppenheimer Funds, said that stocks would not hit a true low until the Fed shows it will not just pause its plans to raise interest rates, but put aside its monetary tightening altogether.

"Clearly oil is an issue, but I think these are symptoms, rather than the cause. The cause has been the 18-month Fed talk of tightening in an environment of deflation and deleveraging on a global basis," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Wednesday.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 25, 2016, 12:32:27 PM

US still in a bull market: RBC Wealth Management
Leslie Shaffer   | @LeslieShaffer1
9 Mins Ago
COMMENTSStart the Discussion

U.S. shares are still in a bull market, despite the volatility currently grabbing global attention, Alan Robinson, global portfolio manager at RBC Wealth Management, told CNBC.

"We are we think in the middle of a bull market expansion for stocks. Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of speculative excess and I'd argue that we are far away from that level at the moment," Robinson told CNBC's Squawk Box.

The wealth manager cited the S&P 500 index's close above 1,920 on Wednesday as a particularly positive sign because it put the benchmark U.S. index at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of about 16 times the next 12 months' earnings, which are forecast to be about $120. The S&P ended Wednesday up 8.53 points, or 0.44 percent, at 1929.80 after a sharp intraday reversal from 1 percent-plus losses.

"It gives us some confidence that we can get a fairly significant expansion [of valuations] by year-end, either by an increase in the P/E multiple as confidence comes back into the market with this bottoming in the oil price," Robinson said.

Janet Yellen
Banks to take hit from fading hopes of rate hike
In U.S. trade on Wednesday, WTI recovered from a sharp overnight decline to settle up 28 cents, or 0.88 percent, at $32.15 a barrel.

The recovery was fueled by U.S. Department of Energy's weekly crude inventory data, which showed U.S. oil barrels rose by 3.5 million, about half what the American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday, suggesting a respite from continued oversupply.

U.S. crude oil futures had declined Tuesday after Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said production cuts would not happen, although producers planned to meet in March to negotiate an output freeze.

But RBC Wealth, which has around 777 billion Canadian dollars ($566.53 billion) under management, cautions that there won't be a huge rally in stocks.

"I don't think we'll get a 50 percent breakout, let me be clear about that," Robinson said. "But I think [a rise to] an 18 P/E is not unreasonable."

The investor is particularly bullish on the outlook for one beaten down sector: U.S. banks.

An oil worker adjusts a flow valve at an oilfield operated by Embamunaigas, a unit of KazMunaiGas Exploration Production, near Atyrau, Kazakhstan.
Oil not going away as headache for big banks
The S&P 500 Financial Sector index is down 12.5 percent so far this year, as shares in the sector sold off on fading expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and worries grow about banks' exposure to the hard-hit oil and gas sector.

But Robinson expects that lower rates for longer could benefit U.S. banks by increasing their net interest margins, which is the difference between banks' interest income from loans and the interest they have to pay for funds, such as deposits.

"This will lead to a little bit more inflation further down the line," he said. "We think lower rates for longer, plus the increased threat of higher inflation because of that, will steepen the yield curve and improve net interest margins.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: bursamy on February 25, 2016, 12:37:34 PM
On Friday there will be G20 meeting - a gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors in Shanghai. After that, ECB will meet on March 10, BOJ on March 14-15 and FED on March 15-16. More stimulus is expected from ECB and BOJ and FED will likely be on hold and all of these should be positive for equity market.

For more info regarding stocks daily news, Register :
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: bursamy on February 25, 2016, 06:31:51 PM
Even after a brutal start to 2016, stocks may still be more expensive than they seem. Even worse, investors may be paying for earnings and growth that aren’t anywhere near what they think. The result could be that share prices have even further to fall before they entice true value investors.

The difference shows up starkly when looking at price/earnings ratios. On a pro forma basis, the S&P trades at less than 17 times 2015 earnings. But that shoots up to over 21 times under GAAP.

Join us for more discussions :
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 25, 2016, 08:47:46 PM

This is 'the best year to sell rallies ever’: Trader
Alex Rosenberg   | @CNBCAlex
1 Hour Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The S&P 500 may have rebounded considerably from the lows hit two weeks prior, but the bulls shouldn't become too excited yet, according to macroeconomic trader and strategist Boris Schlossberg.

"I continue to think this year is going to be the best year to sell rallies ever," Schlossberg said Wednesday on CNBC's "Power Lunch." "Every rally is going to be a fake out."

After several great years for stocks and a flat 2015, "the chickens are coming home to roost," he said.

First of all, the stock market "is just due" for a poor year after all the good times, BK Asset Management's chief FX strategist told CNBC in a phone interview.

On top of that, U.S. profits have fallen, and Schlossberg sees them dropping even further due to slow demand growth. "The transmission mechanism from jobs to wages to spending is simply not taking place," he said.

Read MoreThese 5 stocks are strictly for the bulls
And that's even before one considers the many global risk factors, which most notably include dramatically slowing economic growth in China.

"It all just puts us in a pretty vulnerable position, as far as equities go," Schlossberg said. "Whatever hope we have is going to be extinguished by the end of the year."

However, Stifel Nicolaus portfolio manager Chad Morganlander takes the other side. Morganlander believes that the market has begun to price in slowing global growth, meaning that there may be some values in equities.

"At this point we would start layering on risk," he said Wednesday on CNBC. "Valuations are starting to make sense."
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 25, 2016, 08:56:55 PM

Opinion: ‘Smart-beta’ investing guru is now warning of a crash

By Brett Arends
Published: Feb 25, 2016 5:13 a.m. ET

Rob Arnott says the popular strategy has become too popular

Dump “quality” stocks and buy “value” stocks.

That’s the call from Rob Arnott, the legendary financial guru and chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment firm in Newport Beach, Calif.

He says stocks bearing high-quality characteristics — such as high profits, strong balance sheets and so on — have now become far too expensive in relation to the rest of the stock market.

Meanwhile, so-called “value” stocks — which generally mean boring companies that have low future growth prospects but are cheap in relation to current profits and dividends — are at one of their biggest discounts in modern history
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 26, 2016, 05:01:20 AM

Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 26, 2016, 05:48:13 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 26, 2016, 06:44:24 AM

Here Is The Reason For The Sudden Buying Spree
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2016 14:09 -0500

Crude Crude Oil POMO POMO

Deja vu all over again.  Just as we saw after yesterday's "glitch" in POMO unleashed a huge short-squeeze buying rampage, so today's "technical issue"-delayed 7Y Auction has sparked panic-buying in stocks.

Recall what we said less than an hours ago and moments after the Treasury announcement that today's 7Y auction was rescheduled:

What is more stunning is that just like yesterday's POMO cancellation at 11:15am  sent yields surging, so today's announcement has likewise pushed yields higher and stocks promptly followed.
Has the Fed/Treasury complex found a new way to manipulate markets: with the market delta hedging ahead of a POMO or auction, authorities yank the carpet from underneath everyone, and force a scramble to sell positions into the auction, pushing yields higher and unleashing a scramble into risk assets?
Keep an eye on the market: if stocks surge as a result of this unprecedented two-peat, we will have our answer.
Less than an hour later we have the answer: the entire US equity market (and crude oil) has surged as "Most Shorted" stocks get face-ripped
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 26, 2016, 06:46:06 AM

Intraday Market Rescue Team Most Active Since 2011
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2016 14:55 -0500


It appears that whenever downsides to The Fed's "wealth creation" mandate begin to appear, something strange happens in the stock market...

The frequency of v-shaped recoveris intraday in recent weeks has risen significantly. In an effort to quantify this, we measure the average rise from intraday lows to the cash close on the S&P 500...

h/t MacroMan

This admittedly  raw indicator does seem to peak every time we get a crisis occurrence - and is currently at its highest since the US downgrade in 2011 as it appears 'someone' is more than willing to lift stocks off the lows each and every day.

Of course, this is just crazy conspirascy talk.. correlation of events is not causation, but where there is manipulative smoke, we just there is NYFed (via Citadel) buying fire.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 26, 2016, 06:53:23 AM

Tom DeMark Warns If The S&P Closes Below This Level, It Could "Wreak Havoc To The Downside"
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2016 15:02 -0500

The S&P 500 is three trading days from reaching "trend exhaustion," according to infamous technical analyst Tom DeMark. "The foundation of the ongoing rally is suspect," warns DeMark, noting that if the market closes below these key levels in the next three days, DeMark warns "the decline is going to be sharp."


As Bloomberg reports, a top in the S&P 500 would also be confirmed should the S&P 500 finish below 1,926.82 on Tuesday, or close less than 1,917 on Wednesday or Thursday, DeMark said.

If any of those S&P 500 triggers occur, the benchmark index will decline at least 8.2 percent from Monday’s close to 1,786, a level last seen in February 2014, according to DeMark. Should the market top correspond with what he referred to as “bad news,” the S&P 500 could see deeper selling down to 1,736, an 11 percent decline. DeMark sees the ongoing market rally as temporary relief as investors exit short positions.
“We’ve seen some pretty vicious short-covering come in, which has caused the market to move up,” said DeMark. “When that happens, it really plays havoc with the market once the downside move begins.”
“The foundation of the ongoing rally is suspect,” DeMark, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, said in a phone interview. “The temporary buying produces a price vacuum beneath the market and accelerates the subsequent decline. The decline is going to be sharp.”
*  *  *

A handful of chart-based calls by DeMark have looked prescient in recent weeks, including a prediction on Feb. 11 that oil would rally and a Jan. 20 forecast for a temporary bottom in the S&P 500. And traders pay close attention to the levels he suggests

Why Tom DeMark is predicting an ugly fall for the S&P 500 in March
By Mark DeCambre
Published: Feb 25, 2016 5:04 p.m. ET

Market-timer Tom McClellan also sees a rough spring ahead
DeMark Analytics
Tom DeMark sees an ugly future for the S&P 500.
The worst isn’t over for Wall Street stocks. That is at least how respected chart-watcher Tom DeMark sees things possibly unfolding as investors get ready to close the book on February and head into March.

DeMark, who founded his eponymously named data analytics firm in Scottsdale, Ariz., is predicting that stocks are in for a big fall.

That’s highlighted in his view of the S&P 500 SPX, +1.13% which he sees dropping 8% to 10% from current level to around 1,786. The broad stock-market benchmark could tumble to 1,733, if things get really ugly, he said. His gloomy call was briefly highlighted by MarketWatch’s Victor Reklaitis on Wednesday.

On Thursday, DeMark told MarketWatch that he was “confident” this bearish scenario had a good chance of playing out, even as the global stock market was looking buoyant, shrugging off a 6.4% slide in China’s Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -6.41%

“I’m pretty confident even though 90% of the stock market has already bottomed,” DeMark said. He has attributed the recent rally to traders unwinding bets that the market will fall further rather than genuine wagers on a long-term increase in stock and index values.

Why put any faith in DeMark’s prognostications? Because a number of his recent calls on equities have been dead accurate.

DeMark called for a rally in oil on Feb. 11 and signaled that the S&P 500 had notched a short-term bottom on Jan. 20. And last August, his forecast that China’s markets were headed for a further slide also proved correct. His predictions have garnered him a certain amount of celebrity status on Wall Street, where he advises the likes of hedge-fund luminaries George Soros, Stevie Cohen and a host of other financial hotshots.

Broadly speaking, DeMark employs a so-called momentum formula that compares closing levels of the S&P with those from four days earlier among other complex indicators to make his determinations. At least that is part of his complicated secret sauce.

As for his gloomy forecast for stocks, DeMark points to eerie similarities between moves now and in earlier periods. DeMark pointed to past moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.29% compared with recent action to support that point.

Explaining his view on CNBC late Wednesday, he focused on three charts that underpin his outlook. The first of the charts below shows the similarities between moves by the blue-chip index back in 1980 when stocks were rocked by the fallout from Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt’s inability to meet margin calls on an ill-fated attempt to corner prices on the silver-futures SIH6, -1.03%  market. The wealthy brothers faced a gargantuan loss, and fears that it might spill over from Wall Street to Main Street unsettled stocks.

DeMark says the Dow’s moves since October of last year to now are nearly identical, as the following chart shows:

“What we are trying to do is compare the current market with prior periods,” he told CNBC.

DeMark also sees a similar theme in comparing market moves in 2007-2009 with now, as the following chart shows:

In his third “most important” chart, DeMark predicted a test of the recent intraday lows in a pattern similar to what played out in 2011 when equities were roiled by the European debt crisis:

DeMark said Friday could be a critical day for the markets and a point at which he and his team will reassess his call. Here’s his full interview with CNBC:

But DeMark told MarketWatch that the next two or three weeks is probably a better range of when this slump might take hold.

“If [the market doesn’t fall ] in the next two or three weeks, we’ll have to rethink [the scenario],” he said.

DeMark views himself as a market timer looking to identify trends and bristles at being called a market technician. “We’re trend anticipators, we don’t track trends,” he told MarketWatch, explaining the distinction. Market timers are viewed as those who attempt to call tops and bottoms in an asset to determine the best entry and exit points.

To those who don’t put a lot of credence in chart watchers, DeMark says this: “It’s still better than guessing.”

A late-Thursday rally in crude-oil prices as talk of a March meeting of major oil producers to stabilize oil prices CLJ6, +2.89%  might complicate matters for DeMark. Stocks have followed prices of crude like a sick puppy lately.

But DeMark isn’t the only chart-watching guru predicting an ugly March and April. Another prominent market timer, Tom McClellan, is forecasting a rough start to spring in a recent newsletter:

“Right now, ‘the plan’ is for a sizable down move during the month of March, leading to a bottom due the first week of April, according to The McClellan Market Report published at the close of Tuesday trading. Here’s an excerpt:

The stock market is topping out now after a countertrend rally, and ahead lies an ugly March. That weakness should accelerate after a top due March 1-4, and should culminate in a bottom due the first week of April. At that point, expect to hear everyone talking about how this is 2008 all over again, which it is not
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 26, 2016, 10:02:17 AM

字級設定: 小 中 大 特
回應(0) 人氣(249) 收藏(0) 2016/02/26 08:17
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-02-26 08:17:08 記者 陳苓 報導
美股不甩陸股慘摔,展翅高飛,標普500指數衝上七週新高,市場信心似乎逐漸好轉。但是預測神準的技術線型大師Tom DeMark發出警告,說美股跌勢還沒完結,三月份標普500可能會再跌10%。
MarketWatch 25日報導,DeMark預測,標普500將從當前水位挫低8~10%、至1,786點,要是情勢惡化,可能會跌至1,733點。他接受MarketWatch訪問說,儘管全球股市重現榮景,他仍有信心上述預估有可能成真。他指出,儘管九成股市觸底,不過這波反彈是空方減碼造成,並非真的看好股價會長期走升。
DeMark看法頗具份量,他近來預測多次命中。他2月初估計油價將有一波反彈,標普500打出短底。他也正確預警去年8月的中國股災,指出上證參考指數會在三週內下挫14%至3,200點。精準預言讓他成了華爾街名人,還曾為索羅斯旗下的基金公司「Soros Fund Management LLC」、投資大師Leon Cooperman旗下的Omega Advisors Inc.提供顧問服務。

基本面似乎也支持DeMark的觀點,CNBC 25日報導,美國企業盈餘持續萎縮,摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)策略師回顧115年歷史,發現獲利下滑是經濟衰退的預兆,正確度高達81%。其餘19%都是當局動用財政或貨幣刺激,才逆轉衰退情勢。
標準普爾500 25日指數上漲1.13%(21.9)點、收1,951.70點,創1月6日以來收盤新高。
MarketWatch 2月18日報導,美股三連漲18日止步,華爾街歡樂派對暫歇,有分析師說,先前的驚人漲勢其實是軋空行情,多頭力道恐怕無以為繼。
財經部落客Greg Guenthner表示,他研究近來狂漲個股,發現幾乎都有個共同特色,這些飆股先前多遭放空,跌幅慘重;之後空方發現情勢不對,緊急買回股票,引爆軋空行情。比方說,團購網站Groupon揭露阿里巴巴入股後,16日單日飆漲41%之多,可能就是一例。(軋空是指投資人原本看壞走勢,借券放空,但是股票走高後,不堪虧損回補股票。)
Bespoke Investment Group也有類似看法,該集團17日在推特發文稱, 近來放空比率最高的個股表現優於大盤,顯示為軋空行情。跡象指出,漲勢只是假動作,而非真正反彈。

MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 27, 2016, 05:21:43 AM


Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 27, 2016, 07:02:40 AM

Oil drags on stocks but Dow, S&P 500 gain for second week

By Sue Chang and Ellie Ismailidou
Published: Feb 26, 2016 4:54 p.m. ET

J.C. Penney, Kraft rise on strong earnings
U.S. Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen.
U.S. stocks wiped out earlier gains to finish generally lower on Friday, pulled down as crude-oil prices turned south. But all three main indexes closed higher for a second week in a row.

The S&P 500 SPX, -0.19% shed 3.65 points, or 0.2%, to close at 1,948.05. For the week, the large-cap benchmark rose 1.6%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.34% dropped 57.32 points, or 0.3%, to close at 16,639.97 for a weekly gain of 1.5%. Only the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.18% rose, adding 8.27 points, or 0.2%, to close at 4,590.47. The tech-heavy index climbed 1.9% this week.

Oil prices and the S&P 500 moved in a similar intraday pattern on Friday, noted Frank Cappelleri, executive director of institutional equities at Instinet LLC.

That’s something investors have become accustomed to. In recent weeks, stocks have moved in tandem with oil with correlation estimated at nearly 90%.

Benchmarks had opened in positive territory on the heels of an upgrade to the fourth-quarter economic growth rate and a rise in crude-oil prices. However, stocks were pressured after the government said the longer-term rate of inflation doubled in January to 1.3%, closing in on the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and potentially raising the odds of another interest-rate increase soon.

Ian Winer, director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities, cautioned against reading too much into the recent batch of economic reports.

“The GDP was better, but are we really going to be excited that it came in at 1%” rather than the initial read of 0.7%? he said.

Analysts had expected a downward revision, and said the lift in GDP was mainly due to an unexpected rise in inventories. That could suggest companies got stuck with more unsold goods than they expected, as well as a big revision down in imports. Consumer spending was cut and—taking out the influence of inventories—real final sales remained the same.

Oil futures CLJ6, -0.70%  were buoyed for much of the session of hopes that major oil producers would cut output. But prices turned negative in the final minutes of trade.

The key event to watch next week, with potential implications to influence stocks, is the so-called Super Tuesday primary day, when 11 states will award delegates, according to Wedbush’s Winer.

“We should have a much better idea of who the candidates are going to be and the market will react accordingly,” he said.

Individual movers: J.C. Penney Co. JCP, +14.71%  finished 15% higher after the department store chain delivered better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat profit forecast late Thursday.

Read: J.C. Penney goes private (label) in fight to continue turnaround

Kraft Heinz Co. KHC, +3.84%  closed up 3.8%, after the food giant posted better-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue late Thursday.

Monster Beverage Corp. MNST, -1.74%  ended 1.7% lower, after the energy-drink maker’s quarterly results disappointed late Thursday.

Apple CEO: FBI wants software 'equivalent of cancer'(1:28)
Tim Cook defends Apple's decision to resist an FBI demand to unlock an iPhone used by one of the suspects in the San Bernardino attack.

Gap Inc.’s GPS, -1.34%  quarterly profit topped estimates, but the clothing retailer’s full-year profit guidance was below expectations. Gap closed 1.3% lower.

Palo Alto Networks Inc. PANW, +5.20% posted stronger-than-anticipated results Thursday, with the computer security specialist saying its quarterly release hit earlier than planned due to a “manual error.” Shares closed up 5.2%.

Nutritional supplement company Herbalife Ltd. HLF, +20.52% shares rallied 21% after the company disclosed late Thursday that a probe by the Federal Trade Commission may conclude soon.

Other markets: Commodities-related stocks helped European markets SXXP, +1.53%  advance. Asian stocks closed mostly higher, with Chinese shares SHCOMP, +0.95%  recovering from the prior day’s tumble. Gold futures GCJ6, -1.29%  were slightly lower, while the dollar gained against the euro.

Read more: ‘Gold is the new black’ with its best start to the year since 1980

Economic news: At the G-20 meeting in Shanghai, China’s top central banker said Beijing won’t drastically weaken the yuan and argued officials there have sufficient tools to support their slowing economy.

—Victor Reklaitis contributed to this article.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 27, 2016, 05:56:54 PM

March could come in like a bull but red flags are waving
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
9 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion
March could come in like a bull, but whether the late February rally can run much further remains to be seen.

Key for that will be upcoming economic news, particularly Friday's jobs report, which is the last big piece of data ahead of the Fed's March meeting. U.S. markets could also be sensitive to global reactions to Chinese PMI manufacturing data Tuesday and Europe area inflation data, expected by some to be negative when it is reported Monday.

"Making a short-term call is very difficult because the market made such a run in the last week, and you have a major risk event — Super Tuesday," said Julian Emanuel, UBS equity and derivatives strategist. Wall Street's assumption is that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be the front — runners when votes are tallied in the dozen states and one territory holding contests Tuesday.

NYSE Traders on the floor.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
NYSE Traders on the floor.
"I think it's going to add to uncertainty," said Sam Stovall, chief U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. But he said the Super Tuesday primaries will not be that much of a worry as long as the perceived front-runners win.

Emanuel said the market has been pounded with news on the U.S. election as well as the "Brexit" — the possible split of the U.K. from the European Union. "The political news may be one thing, whether it's 'Brexit' or the continued distraction of the divisive political discourse," he said.

Economic data besides jobs will also be important. "The other major risk event is the March 1 manufacturing ISM," said Emanuel. "With the last reading of 48.2, it's basically that we're in a no man's land. You're not in a manufacturing recession, but you are in a slowdown, but given the data we've seen, it's possible there could be improvement." Economists expect a reading of 48.6. Anything below 50 signals contraction.

Read MoreSuper Tuesday is often a bottom in the stock market
Emanuel said investors had become overly negative, expecting the worst in the current market. "What people are beginning to realize is in a highly volatile environment, risks could easily skew to the upside as the downside," he said.

Stocks were mostly lower Friday but closed higher for a second week in a row, with the S&P 500 up 1.6 percent. The index finished at 1948, just below the important technical level of 1,950 and above its 50-day moving average of 1,944. The S&P has clawed back from a 15.2 percent decline, and is now off about 8.7 percent from its 2015 high.

For the month of February so far, the S&P 500 is slightly higher, up 0.4 percent, and the Dow is up 1 percent. But the Dow Transports have risen more than 7 percent. Oil was a positive factor, rising about 10 percent in the futures market, when looking at front month contracts. The West Texas Intermediate contract for April settled down 29 cents at $32.78 per barrel.

"The market seems to be coming into March like a bull," said Stovall. He said that in leap years, on Feb 29, the S&P 500 has had an average price change of 0.1 percent, and it's been negative 65 percent of the time on the 17 "leap days" since 1928.

Read MoreBuffett's troubled trades
As for the month of March, it has a better track record than the average performance of all months — a 0.65 percent gain. "March is the third-best month, on average up 1.3 percent since World War II," Stovall said.

While the market is watching jobs data on Friday, it may pay most attention to average hourly wages, expected to rise 0.2 percent, after a surprise 0.5 percent gain last month. According to Thomson Reuters, economists expect 193,000 nonfarm payrolls for February, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.9 percent.

Read MoreHow to make millions if oil doesn't crater

The pickup in wages last month came as core CPI data over the last 12 months also rose above 2 percent, the Fed's targeted level. But more importantly, PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred metric rose 1.7 percent in January, a 0.3 percent from December and a leap toward the Fed's target. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike shifted Friday after the data, rising to a more than 50 percent chance for a second rate rise by December.

"This is going to be a real interesting time because remember (Fed Chair Janet) Yellen said … if inflation comes back quicker, rates could go up faster," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. But Rupkey said the market is not pricing in a rate hike, and the 10-year note yield stays stubbornly low, at 1.76 percent Friday.

While the nonfarm payrolls fell to 151,000 in January, economists see the economy as entering a period when job creation is peaking out.

Read More Wall Street starts cutting back growth outlook
"I think the problem we're running into is we reached the employment side of their (Fed) mandate, so payrolls lose some of its power," said Rupkey. "But Yellen has said that in order to have confidence their inflation target is going to be met, they want to see growth and jobs creation remain strong. For me, we've crossed the finish line on jobs, and they lifted off."

So traders will watch every measure of wages and inflation because the Fed could face a dilemma if inflation starts to take off, at the same time financial conditions worsen or the U.S. economy slows too much. There is little expectation for a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting March 16, but some economists expect Fed officials may be ready to raise rates by their June meeting.

Even before the U.S. opens for trading Monday, markets could get some news from the G-20, meeting in China. Also, the euro zone inflation data could have a negative impact on the euro if it does slip into negative territory, according to Robert Sinche, global strategist at Amherst Pierpont. Traders will be watching the data against the backdrop of the upcoming European Central Bank meeting March 10, where the ECB is expected to consider further easing steps.

"If the headline turns back negative, there will be enormous pressure on the ECB to do something," said Sinche. "The reality is what can they really do? I think the global markets are coming back to the view of what negative rates are really doing. Is it really a benefit?
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 27, 2016, 08:43:22 PM

最準股市預言家:美股恐2周內暴冧 今關鍵
02月26日(五) 20:43   

【on.cc東網專訊】如果你心癢癢想入市,有位殿堂級預言家「說不」!據外國傳媒報道,準確預測A股爆股災、Market Studies總裁、股市拐點指標創始人迪馬克(Tom DeMark)表示,美股最糟糕時刻仍未結束,接下來還有一波大跌,時間很可能是未來2至3周內。



Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 27, 2016, 08:44:45 PM

倘標指守不住1950點 恐爆大股災?
02月26日(五) 19:54   




Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 27, 2016, 08:47:52 PM

02月26日(五) 21:23   



1、「空軍」2008年以來最多 3個月內有分曉!

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3、日股走勢得啖笑 美股又如何?


連就準確預測A股爆股災、Market Studies總裁、股市拐點指標創始人迪馬克(Tom DeMark)也表示,美股最糟糕時刻仍未結束,接下來還有一波大跌,時間很可能是未來2至3周內,最差可能會跌至1,733點。

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講到咁驚,真係歷史重演?事實上,要捕捉入市時機從來不易。不過,美國著名分析員、Oppenheimer & Co首席市場策略師John Stoltzfus發現了一個神奇數字!這就是標指市盈率16.5倍。


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要股市大跌,亦須配合基本因素,現時市場人士仍力撐經濟穩健。不過,美國金融市場研究網站Economy&Markets聯合創始人Harry Dent本周表示,衰退已到!他更強調,回顧2008年經濟大動盪時,最恐慌是9月雷曼兄弟宣布破產,但事後證明,衰退不是在9月,而是1月;美股則在2007年10月見頂。

他指出,現時已有一個訊號與2008年一樣!這就是餐廳表現指數(Restaurant Performance Index)!當你認為消費者在油價慳了錢及加人工後,可以多些到餐廳消費時,這指標證明是錯!現時該指數已跌穿100指標線,正式宣布陷入衰退,情況與2007年底一模一樣。(本文附圖五)
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8、邊個最惡?伊朗倘拒凍產 全球「玩完」
以上提及了油價,事實上,現時環球股市及經濟去向確實要看油價表現。故此,中國、美國、歐洲、日本,甚至希臘也不是「最惡」!總部位於杜拜的銀行Emirates NBD分析師Edward Bell稱,油價能否守住30美元支持位取決於「伊朗」!他說,如果伊朗不同意減產或凍結產量,油價就可能會跌破每桶30美元。

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Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 28, 2016, 06:24:46 AM

A Chilling Forecast For Those With 20/10 Vision
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/27/2016 14:40 -0500

Chart Patterns Moving Averages Technical Analysis Technical Indicators

Submitted by Michael Lebowitz via,

At 720 Global we follow a large number of fundamental and macroeconomic indicators to help forecast the markets. In addition we also monitor technical indicators to gain further confidence when making market forecasts and assessing the likelihood of outcomes. Although we do not spend much time writing about technical analysis, we view it as an important tool in evaluating human investment behavior.  When technical indicators line up with the fundamental metrics, the reinforcement provides a greater level of confidence in the analysis.

In this article we highlight a simple technical indicator that has proven prescient over the last 15 years.  Currently, this indicator supports much that we have posited regarding equity valuations and what they portend for the future direction of prices.

Moving Averages
Moving averages are the average price at which an index or security has traded over the last number of days, weeks, months or even years. For instance, today’s 20­day moving average for the S&P 500 is its average closing price over the prior 20 days. Many investors use moving averages to help gauge where a security or index may encounter support or resistance. Due to the widespread use of moving averagesit is not uncommon to see prices gravitate toward moving averages.

Another way investors employ moving averages is to compare them across different time frames. For example, an investor may compare the 20­day moving average to the 50­day moving average. It is said that when a shorter term moving average is higher than a longer term moving average the underlying stock or index has positive momentum and vice versa. Therefore, when shortterm moving averages crossto the upside or the downside of longer term moving averagesit can signal an inflection point where momentum has changed direction.

The indicator that is currently catching our attention, and may be worthy of your attention, is a comparison of the 10­month and 20­month moving averages on the monthly S&P 500 index. Monthly moving averages are similar to the aforementioned 20­day example but instead of daily closing prices, monthly closing prices are used.

The chart below shows the monthly price of the S&P 500 since 1999 in blue. It is flanked by the 10­ and 20­month moving averages in green and red respectively. Note that when the 10­month moving average rises above the 20­month moving average, it has signaled the early stages of a sustained rally in the S&P 500. Conversely when the 10­month moving average falls below the 20­month moving average it has signaled a prolonged decline.

S&P 500 and 10­ and 20­ Month Moving Averages

In the following graph we drew circles around the 3 instances that the 10­month moving average crossed below the 20­month moving average and “positive momentum stalled”. Alternatively boxes are used to show when the opposite happened and “negative momentum stalled”.

S&P 500 and 10­ and 20­ Month Moving Averages – Crosses Highlighted

The graph below enlarges the past year to show that as of late February 2016 the 10­month moving average dipped below the 20­month moving average – a potential indication of “stalled positive momentum”.   

S&P 500 and 10­ and 20­ Month Moving Averages – Prior Year

Important Disclosure: The moving averages shown above are based on the value of the index in late­February 2016. The crossing of the two moving averages will not be “official” until the end of the month. By our calculations, a closing price of 1993 or lower on the S&P 500 on February 29th would cause the 10­month moving average to drop below the 20­month moving average.

[ZH - here is the update as of Friday's close]

Some investors are pure technicians and only use technical analysis to allocate capital. Others disregard it entirely; swearing it off as voodoo. As chart patterns are merely a reflection of capital flows resulting from human decision making, we believe technical analysis offers useful insight and can be helpful in gaining further conviction around an investment idea.

If, by the end of February, there is indeed a crossover of the moving averages, we will have a higher level of confidence that the near­constant march higher in prices since 2009 has reversed trend.  If history proves prophetic, buckle up. Stock prices may be in for a precipitous decline.
Title: Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
Post by: king on February 28, 2016, 09:37:48 PM

So much for that imminent market meltdown...
by Matt Egan   @mattmegan5
February 26, 2016: 4:06 PM ET   

Your video will play in 00:28
The American stock market is in the midst of a pretty sweet comeback.
Just two weeks ago the market was in full-fledged freak out mode over the crash in oil prices and depressing global growth. People were dumping stocks almost like it was 2008 all over again.
But cooler heads have prevailed, at least for the moment. Even after closing lower on Friday, the Dow is up a whopping 1,100 points since its lowest point on February 11. The S&P 500 has soared 4.7% over the past two weeks, its best stretch in exactly a year.
So what changed? First, fears of an imminent recession have faded -- and for good reason. The U.S. economy isn't in as terrible shape as the rest of the world -- nor as bad as investors thought just a few weeks ago.
Fourth-quarter growth was upgraded to a less terrible 1% on Friday and there's mounting evidence that consumer spending is accelerating in early 2016.
"The markets had gotten down to where a recession was at least halfway priced in," said Anthony Valeri, investment strategist at LPL Financial. "It's been a big reversal of that extreme pessimism."
That's why the Dow is now down "only" 4.5% on the year and the Nasdaq is no longer flirting with a bear market.
Related: The worst may finally be over for stocks
Oil and stocks move in lockstep
It's no coincidence that stocks bottomed the same day oil prices did. The turbulent commodity has surged a ridiculous 30% since the February 11 lows to nearly $35 a barrel.
That may not be great news for consumers filling up their gas tanks. But it is good for your retirement account because the stock market has become obsessed with the downsides of cheap oil, including job cuts and bankruptcies in the energy industry. For virtually all of this year the S&P 500 and oil have moved in lockstep -- for better or worse.
Of course, that means the stock market could experience another setback if oil makes another U-turn. Don't rule out that possibility. Oil prices are volatile and the world still has more than it needs. Saudi Arabia and Russia simply talking about freezing production -- without help from Iran -- won't fix the epic supply glut.
"Oil and stock prices appear joined at the hip," said Valeri. "It's hard to make the case for a sustained rally in oil prices."
But that hasn't prevented energy stocks from skyrocketing of late. Chesapeake Energy (CHK)is up 80% from its lows, while ExxonMobil (XOM) has soared 23%.
Oil isn't the only closely-watched commodity showing signs of life. Metals like copper and iron ore that serve as barometers of global growth have also stopped melting down, easing re