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Free For All / Re: Help! Advice Needed
« Last post by iiinvestsmart on Today at 07:18:45 AM »
By the law of averages, no venture no gain.
Commodities / Re: Oil drop again
« Last post by king on Today at 06:43:47 AM »

Oil prices fall almost 2% after end-of-week rally

August 22, 2017 00:38 am MYT

NEW YORK (Aug 21): Oil prices fell nearly two percent on Monday, pulling back from last week's rally built on signs the global market is starting to rebalance from chronic oversupply.

Brent crude futures lost two percent, or US$1.07, at US$51.65 a barrel as of 12:01 p.m. EDT (1601 GMT), after surging more than three percent on Friday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 1.9 percent, or 90 cents, to US$47.63 a barrel. The contract had also risen three percent in the previous session.

"We are currently seeing some profit-taking after Friday's strong rally ahead of this week's inventory data," said Hans van Cleef, senior energy economist at ABN Amro.

"Fresh uncertainty about inventories and OPEC compliance (with agreed production cuts) could be enough reason to sell some of the long positions."

US hedge funds and money managers have already started reducing bets on rising prices, with Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showing on Friday that investors had cut bullish bets on US crude for a second straight week.

Investors in Europe disagree on the outlook, however, as data from the InterContinental Exchange showed speculators raised bullish Brent crude bets last week.

The world remains awash with oil despite a deal struck by some of the world's biggest producers to rein in output. Rising US production has been a major factor keeping supply and demand from balancing.

There are indications that US output may soon slow, as energy companies cut rigs drilling for new oil for a second week in three, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. Drillers cut five rigs in the week to Aug 18, decreasing the count to 763.

US commercial crude inventories have fallen almost 13 percent from their March peaks to 466.5 million barrels.

The oil minister of Kuwait, which is participating in OPEC-led production cuts, said US crude stocks were falling more than expected because output cuts were taking effect.

Azerbaijan, not an OPEC member but one of the countries which has committed to the production curbing deal, remains committed to cutting output, the head of state oil company SOCAR told Reuters on Monday.

A shutdown of Libya's Sharara field due to a pipeline blockage provided some upside. Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure on loadings of Sharara crude from the Zawiya oil terminal on Sunday.
Equities / Re: Spot KLCI Index
« Last post by king on Today at 06:42:21 AM »

Market Preview
KLCI to trend sideways, support at 1,770
Surin Murugiah

August 22, 2017 06:17 am MYT

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 22): The FBM KLCI is expected to trend sideways with immediate support at 1,770, as sentiment at the local market remains nervy still with the corporate earnings season in full swing.

A gauge of world stock indexes edged up after touching a 5-1/2-week low on Monday as geopolitical uncertainty kept gains in check but metals prices dazzled, helped in part by Chinese demand, according to Reuters.

Zinc rose to its highest in a decade, copper hit a nearly three-year peak and iron ore rose to gain nearly 15 percent in the last three sessions, it said.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 29.24 points, or 0.13 percent, to 21,703.75, the S&P 500 gained 2.82 points, or 0.12 percent, to 2,428.37 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.40 points, or 0.05 percent, to 6,213.13, said Reuters.

AllianceDBS Research in its evening edition Monday said despite the last few minutes buying of selective blue chip stocks to settle the market at the day’s high of 1,776.22 on Aug 18, the FBM KLCI was in the red throughout the trading sessions on Aug 21 before settling at the day’s low of 1,771.62 (down 4.60 points or 0.26%) in the absence of stronger buying interest.

“In the broader market, losers outnumbered gainers with 444 stocks ending lower and 379 stocks finishing higher. That gave a market breadth of 0.85 indicating the bears were in better control,” it said.

AllianceDBS Research said the market saw no follow through buying interest on Aug 21 with buyers and sellers were seen in a balanced position.

“This can be seen from the formation of the inside day bar.

“An inside day bar indicated a pause in the game play. Someone asked why the market did not follow the economic data of 5.8% GDP growth for second quarter 2017 announced on 18 Aug 2017.

“Firstly, many of us would NOT disagree that market movement is a function of demand supply equation. Secondly, market participants differ in opinions of what are affecting the demand and supply,” it said.

The research house said that in this case, it was clear that most of the market participants had chosen to ignore the economic data.

It said following the down close on Aug 21, there should be selling attempt again with immediate support at 1,770.     

“The analysis of overall market action on Aug 21 revealed that buying power was weaker than selling pressure.

“As such, the FBM KLCI would likely trade below the 1,771.62 level on Aug 22,” said AllianceDBS Research.

Based on corporate announcements and news flow yesterday, companies in focus on today may include: Luxchem Corporation Bhd, Malakoff Corporation Bhd, Scomi Energy Servuces Bhd, APM Automotive Holdings Bhd, Inix Technologies Bhd, TH Plantations Bhd, Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd, Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd, Malaysia Building Society Bhd, Mah Sing Group Bhd, Petronas Dagangan Bhd, RHB Bank Bhd, AMMB Holdings Bhd and Tropicana Corp Bhd.
Global Markets / Re: DJIA Index Movements
« Last post by king on Today at 06:18:40 AM »

Equities / Re: Casino Stocks
« Last post by zuolun on Today at 06:18:20 AM »
"Do not buy stocks that even worms also won't grow on them."

Sumatec ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, downside biased

Sumatec closed with a white marubozu @ RM0.055 (+0.005, +10%) with 8.21m shares done on 21 Aug 2017.

幸马泰私下配售.可续持有? ~ 13 Aug 2017

Sumatec to raise up to RM20.5m from private placement ~ 8 Jun 2017

Sumatec shares rise after rights issue price announcement ~ 14 April 2016

The gambler's fallacy

Gambling with Other People’s Money

Imagine a superb poker player who asks you for a loan to finance his nightly poker playing. For every $100 he gambles, he’s willing to put up $3 of his own money. He wants you to lend him the rest. You will not get a stake in his winning. Instead, he’ll give you a fixed rate of interest on your $97 loan.

The poker player likes this situation for two reasons. First, it minimizes his downside risk. He can only lose $3. Second, borrowing has a great effect on his investment — it gets leveraged. If his $100 bet ends up yielding $103, he has made a lot more than 3 percent — in fact, he has doubled his money. His $3 investment is now worth $6.

But why would you, the lender, play this game? It’s a pretty risky game for you. Suppose your friend starts out with a stake of $10,000 for the night, putting up $300 himself and borrowing $9,700 from you. If he loses anything more than 3 percent on the night, he can’t make good on your loan.

Not to worry — your friend is an extremely skilled and prudent poker player who knows when to hold ,em and when to fold ,em. He may lose a hand or two because poker is a game of chance, but by the end of the night, he’s always ahead. He always makes good on his debts to you. He has never had a losing evening. As a creditor of the poker player, this is all you care about. As long as he can make good on his debt, you’re fine. You care only about one thing — that he stays solvent so that he can repay his loan and you get your money back.

But the gambler cares about two things. Sure, he too wants to stay solvent. Insolvency wipes out his investment, which is always unpleasant — it’s bad for his reputation and hurts his chances of being able to use leverage in the future. But the gambler doesn’t just care about avoiding the downside. He also cares about the upside. As the lender, you don’t share in the upside; no matter how much money the gambler makes on his bets, you just get your promised amount of interest.

If there is a chance to win a lot of money, the gambler is willing to take a big risk. After all, his downside is small. He only has $3 at stake. To gain a really large pot of money, the gambler will take a chance on an inside straight.

As the lender of the bulk of his funds, you wouldn't want the gambler to take that chance. You know that when the leverage ratio — the ratio of borrowed funds to personal assets — is 32–1 ($9700 divided by $300), the gambler will take a lot more risk than you’d like. So you keep an eye on the gambler to make sure that he continues to be successful in his play.

But suppose the gambler becomes increasingly reckless. He begins to draw to an inside straight from time to time and pursue other high-risk strategies that require making very large bets that threaten his ability to make good on his promises to you. After all, it’s worth it to him. He’s not playing with very much of his own money. He is playing mostly with your money. How will you respond?

You might stop lending altogether, concerned that you will lose both your interest and your principal. Or you might look for ways to protect yourself. You might demand a higher rate of interest. You might ask the player to put up his own assets as collateral in case he is wiped out. You might impose a covenant that legally restricts the gambler’s behavior, barring him from drawing to an inside straight, for example.
Global Markets / Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Last post by king on Today at 06:16:39 AM »

Commodities / Re: Spot Gold Price (Per Ounce)
« Last post by king on Today at 05:07:29 AM »

Commodities / Re: Spot Brent Oil Price
« Last post by king on Today at 05:06:26 AM »

Global Markets / Re: S&P 500 Index Movements
« Last post by king on Today at 05:04:28 AM »

Global Markets / Re: DJIA Index Movements
« Last post by king on Today at 05:03:57 AM »

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