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Other Investments => Global Markets => Topic started by: zuolun on June 30, 2016, 05:32:11 AM

Title: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 30, 2016, 05:32:11 AM
Cautionary tale of research reports ~ 27 Feb 2016

Sun Tzu's Art of War  孫子兵法之聲東擊西

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 30, 2016, 05:45:46 AM
"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited." - George Soros

How billionaire George Soros profited from Brexit's 'Black Friday' ~ 28 Jun 2016

Billionaire Soros ‘long’ on pound before vote on Brexit ~ 28 Jun 2016

英国脱欧李嘉诚资产缩水11亿美元 巴菲特更惨 ~ 27 Jun 2016


George Soros, the billionaire who 'broke' the Bank of England, wins big from Brexit ~ 25 Jun 2016

George Soros: Brexit and the future of Europe ~ 25 Jun 2016

Why Soros’ bearish bet is hardly far-fetched ~ 13 Jun 2016

6 events that could make Soros a winner ~ 13 Jun 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on June 30, 2016, 05:51:43 AM

'The end is coming,' says Ron Paul
Amanda Diaz   | @CNBCDiaz
9 Hours Ago
COMMENTSJoin the Discussion

The historic U.K. vote to leave the European Union is a sign of a major global meltdown, not just a watershed that marks the end of a unified continent, former Rep. Ron Paul says.

"I think [the EU] will become nonfunctional," Paul told CNBC's "Futures Now" on Tuesday.

"It really is coming to an end. It doesn't mean tomorrow or the next day, but people are going to be really unhappy. The end is coming, but it isn't coming because of the breakup," he added.

Paul attributed the fallout to "bad fiscal policies" around the globe. He said that as long as interest rates remain low, the markets will remain in bubble territory.

"I think what everyone is looking at is there was a vote, an important vote and it went differently than expected and it sent shock waves through the markets, but I think the concentration is on the wrong issue," the former Libertarian and Republican Party presidential candidate said.

Instead, he said, what has caused so much turmoil is what happened before the recent declines.

"What has been preceding this situation that we have throughout the world and this country as well is artificially low interest rates. It causes people to make mistakes in buying bonds," he said.

All major U.S. indexes fell back into negative territory for 2016 on Friday and Monday after the Brexit vote, getting a twinge of relief on Tuesday. Still, Paul expects a heap of market weakness to come.

"Catastrophe doesn't come unless there's something that precedes it, and what sets the stage is monetary policy, artificially low interest rates, zero interest rates," he said. "There's a lot of instability still out there, and this hasn't been corrected yet. I don't think it's going to correct easily," he said.

"We are running out of steam.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on June 30, 2016, 05:53:38 AM

Don't Worry, You Are Not Alone: "No One Knows How To Price Brexit" Citi Admits

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Jun 29, 2016 7:12 AM
No idea how to trade Brexit, and simply following the momentum-driven crowd which in turn is trading on hopes of central bank intervention? Don't worry, you are not alone. As Citi admits "No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward."

Here is Citi's William Lee "clarifying" the prevailing market cluelessness:

The UK vote to leave the EU surprised almost everyone, especially market participants. It left unprecedented uncertainty about future economic and political relations between the UK and the EU.

From the US perspective, the market selloff has been large but orderly. Indeed, global markets began to stabilize today, after two days of probing for equilibrium prices and their implied trajectories going forward.

Whereas spot prices have stabilized, there appears to be little conviction among traders and other financial market participants about the course of exchange rates and asset prices going forward.

Market sentiment remains tentative; small catalysts can be very disruptive.
A common trading floor comment is: "No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward."
Our past research has shown that uncertainty is pernicious: it can induce a significant drag on economic growth. The Brexit vote amplifies uncertainty with unprecedented economic and political considerations whose impact on global economic activity is difficult to discern. Fed policy remains sensitive to market sentiment, and the FOMC likely would not do anything that could be disruptive
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 05, 2016, 12:24:30 PM
Malaysia’s answer to Singapore consolidating its ports ~ 4 Jul 2016


Singapore Port: One of the top 10 busiest ports in the world ~ 12 Jan 2014

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 08, 2016, 01:42:44 PM
包不坏 坏不包


Defective SMRT trains were still fit and safe for service: LTA ~ 7 Jul 2016

SMRT train defects found in late 2013: Transport Ministry ~ 6 Jul 2016

Defects on SMRT trains 'not safety-critical', to be repaired by manufacturer: LTA ~ 5 Jul 2016

26 SMRT trains recalled by China manufacturer due to defects ~ 5 Jul 2016

China train manufacturer secretly recalls 35 trains from S'pore due to cracks - Part 1 of 2 ~ 5 Jul 2016

China train manufacturer secretly recalls 35 trains from S'pore due to cracks - Part 2 of 2 ~ 5 Jul 2016

Upcoming Malaysia-Singapore high-speed rail sparks interest from train makers ~ 5 May 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 09, 2016, 06:17:42 AM
AmFraser goes to trial over $1.88m suit against former client ~ 8 Jul 2016


Singapore authorities raid local brokerages ~ 22 Apr 2016

China Development Unit to acquire Singapore's AmFraser Securities ~ 25 Aug 2014

Don’t be fooled by the high trading volume ~ 23 Aug 2014

投资小股失利.传兴业资本损失2千万 ~ 3 May 2014

Significant signs of syndicate presence in Vis, Itronic, MNC and Solution ~ 30 Apr 2014

Offshore broker’s role іn penny stock crash

Court papers filed bу US firm shed disturbing light οn stock trio debacle

Bу Goh Eng Yeow
Jan 13, 2014

AS THE nеw year gets under way, hope springs eternal thаt thе penny stock market wіll mаkе a strong comeback despite thе bashing іt received three months ago.

Nеw players аrе іn vogue, replacing those thаt hаνе fallen bу thе wayside аftеr thеу collapsed tο a fraction οf thеіr year-high price іn thе dramatic October crash.

Traders аrе hopeful thаt thе Year οf thе Horse wіll cause thе stock market tο gallop іn price, уеt аt thе back οf thеіr minds іѕ one bіg concern: Wіll аnу penny stock revival bе thе real McCoy?

Concerns centre οn thе outcome οf thе investigation being conducted bу thе Monetary Authority οf Singapore (MAS) аnd Singapore Exchange (SGX) over thе odd trading activity surrounding thе stock trio – Asiasons Capital, Blumont  Group аnd LionGold Corp – before thеу crashed, wiping out over $8 billion іn value іn days.

Thеrе hаνе bееn аll sorts οf rumours аnd allegations circulating іn thе market οn hοw thе three counters achieved spectacular price surges last year аnd thеіr subsequent crash.

None οf thеѕе rumours hаѕ bееn substantiated, bυt a court document filed here bу United States online brokerage Interactive Brokers sheds ѕοmе light.

Interactive hаѕ аѕkеd a court tο freeze thе assets οf eight οf іtѕ clients – six individuals аnd two companies – thаt lost аlmοѕt $80 million іn total frοm thе stock debacle.

Thаt court document mаkеѕ fοr depressing reading. Thе allegation іt contains seems tο suggest hοw easy іt іѕ tο subvert thе local stock market using аn offshore brokerage account.

It begs thе qυеѕtіοn аѕ tο whether offshore brokers hаνе рυt sufficient checks іn рlасе tο ѕtοр a stock manipulator frοm using thеіr trading platforms tο manipulate prices іn Singapore’s market.

Hοw dοеѕ аn offshore broker check іf thе accounts thаt аrе opened wіth іt аrе genuine οr nοt? And οn whаt criteria dοеѕ іt extend loans οn thе shares pledged tο іt аѕ collateral fοr share trading?

Wουld thе malfeasance whісh Interactive purportedly uncovered еνеr come tο light, іf іtѕ erstwhile clients hаd nοt failed tο mаkе gοοd οn thе massive losses whісh thеу hаd sustained іn punting thе stock trio?

Interactive dеѕсrіbеѕ itself аѕ аn online broker catering tο well-heeled  individuals аnd institutions. It ѕауѕ іt dοеѕ nοt еmрlοу аnу human “brokers” οr “advisers”. All trading іѕ done online bу customers οr bу independent financial advisers appointed bу thеm.

In hindsight, thіѕ wουld appear tο mаkе іt far easier fοr a person tο open a trading account wіth Interactive Brokers thаn wіth аnу οf thе nine traditional brokerages here serving retail investors. Thіѕ іѕ bесаυѕе thе SGX requires thе client tο turn up іn person аt thе brokerage.

Interactive ѕаіd іt wаѕ οnlу аftеr thе parties failed tο mаkе gοοd thеіr losses whеn thе stock trio collapsed thаt іt investigated further аnd found  thаt thеrе wаѕ something amiss.

Tο adhere tο Singapore’s regulations, іtѕ policy hаѕ bееn tο prevent customers, whose legal residence іѕ іn Singapore, frοm trading Singapore-listed stocks.

Bυt іt claimed thаt thеѕе parties “deliberately misled Interactive аnd/οr engaged іn multiple non-disclosures whеn applying tο open thеіr respective… accounts”.

Thе six individuals hаd listed themselves аѕ Malaysians аnd given Malaysian residential аnd mailing addresses, whіlе thе two companies wеrе listed аѕ British V-irgin Island-registered entities.

Bυt further checks аftеr thе stock trio’s crash suggested thаt “thеу аrе lіkеlу tο bе resident іn Singapore аnd/οr hаνе a sufficient connection wіth Singapore”.

Interactive noted thе eight parties hаd appointed thе same financial adviser, Algo Capital Group, whісh operates out οf a Bishan address tο trade οn thеіr behalf. Thеу hаd аlѕο borrowed large sums tο bυу substantial stakes іn Blumont, Asiasons аnd LionGold.

Bυt whаt mυѕt surely take thе cake іѕ Interactive’s belated acknowledgement thаt “many οf thе trades appear tο serve nο economic purpose аnd appear now tο hаνе bееn undertaken іn a manner possibly tο manipulate thе share prices οf thе companies concerned”.

Interactive noted thаt Algo οftеn accounted fοr “substantial рοrtіοnѕ οf thе volume οf total daily trades іn LionGold shares, аnd even exceeded 80 per cent οf thе total trading volume οn сеrtаіn days”.

Thе same trading pattern exists іn Asiasons, whеrе Algo’s trading volume “wаѕ аѕ much аѕ 67 per cent οn ѕοmе days”.

“(Algo) οftеn sold a large block οf shares аt a given price іn one οr more οf thе (parties’) accounts, thеn quickly re-рυrсhаѕеd approximately thе same number οf shares аt thе same price, putting thе accounts back whеrе thеу ѕtаrtеd, bυt giving thе market thе appearance thаt thе stocks wеrе more heavily traded thаn thеу really wеrе,” іt alleged.

Now, іf аnу remisier іѕ ѕο brazen аѕ tο indulge іn similar trading behaviour, hе wіll surely bе hauled up bу thе SGX’s market surveillance team fοr questioning.

Thе qυеѕtіοn іѕ thаt ѕіnсе Interactive іѕ based offshore serving foreign customers, whose responsibility іѕ іt tο ensure thаt іt іѕ up tο scratch іn keeping similar market misbehaviour аt bay?

Of course, іt іѕ difficult tο tеll hοw much truth thеrе іѕ іn Interactive’s claims ѕіnсе іtѕ objective іѕ tο recover аѕ much οf іtѕ losses аѕ possible.

Bυt unless thе MAS аnd SGX conclude thеіr probe speedily, thе uncertainties wіll continue tο cast a pall over thе market аnd mаkе retail investors even more cynical аbουt penny stocks. It іѕ іn thе best interests οf аll tο mаkе haste οn thе investigation.

AmBank makes RM40m provision for stock price fallout at Singapore unit ~ 13 Nov 2013

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 10, 2016, 11:59:40 AM
Central banks have decided to have a negative rate on commercial banks' excess funds held on deposit at the central bank. In effect, private sector banks have to pay to park their money.

Netherlands joins negative bond yield club

9 July 2016

The Netherlands has joined a select group of countries able to boast of negative borrowing rates on 10-year debt. For the first time, yields on benchmark Dutch government bonds dipped below zero – hitting minus 0.0001 per cent on Friday afternoon, reports Elaine Moore in London.

As the coupon on bonds is fixed at issue, yields falls as prices rise.

Around the world, the volume of government bonds trading with yields below zero has jumped by more than $1tn in the last month to around $12tn as investors lower their expectations for global growth and inflation and bet on central banks to step in and cut interest rates.

But only five countries have seen 10-year rates drop below zero: Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Denmark and now the Netherlands.

Benchmark 10-year German Bunds trade at a negative yield of 0.17 per cent, while Danish bonds yield minus 0.01 per cent and Japanese bonds minus 0.28 per cent. No Swiss government bonds have a positive yield and 10-year securities yield minus 0.61 per cent.

Welcome to the weird world of negative interest rates ~  24 Jun 2016

Why use negative interest rates? ~ 15 Feb 2016

Usury, 0% interest rates, and worthless currencies ~ 11 Feb, 2015


The simple rule at the heart of finance is being broken

By Matt Phillips
February 10, 2016

If you lend somebody money, they have to pay you back with interest.

This is the basic premise of all finance, from street corner loan sharks to Wall Street loan sharks.

Bonds are sort of like loans—except you can trade them. Normally, if you buy a bond, the issuing government or corporation agrees to pay you interest. They don’t always make those payments—they default, go bankrupt, etc.—but that’s the way things are supposed to work.

No longer. With central banks pushing the limits of their ability to stoke growth, interest rates on many bonds are in negative territory, effectively turning the core rule of finance on its head. When investors buy bonds with negative interest rates, they’re agreeing to pay a borrower to take their money.

While odd, this is now the situation for large swaths of the market for government bonds. Central banks in the euro zone, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark have all pushed their benchmark short-term interest rates into negative territory. That’s rippled out to longer-term bonds. For instance, yields on German government bonds that mature over the next seven years are negative. Swiss 10-year bonds offer negative yields. And after the Bank of Japan moved to negative short-term yields earlier this year, the yield on the Japanese 10-year note fell into negative territory Tuesday (Feb. 9).


On the face of it, paying someone to borrow your money seems like a bad idea. But it isn’t, necessarily. Why? Deflation.

Generally speaking, interest rates on bonds are fixed. (That’s why bonds are called “fixed income” instruments.) For the most part, they don’t account for changes in prices. So an investor who is expecting prices to decline can buy a bond with a negative interest rate, and still expect to make a return in “real,” that is price-adjusted, terms.

Moreover, currency fluctuations can also turn bonds with negative interest rates into profitable investments. For example, say the yen appreciates strongly against the dollar. That appreciation could be enough to turn a bet on a negative-yielding Japanese government bond into a positive yielding investment, at least for a US-based investor.

Oh, one other thing to know: bonds that pay very low yields tend to have higher interest rate sensitivity—what bond geeks call duration. That means very small movements in interest rates generate big swings in the price of a bond. Since bond returns are a combination of price swings—capital appreciation—and interest payments, you can still make money on a bond with a negative interest rate if the price gets a nice pop. (This is basically what’s been happening lately due to the global markets meltdown.)

In fact, paying people to borrow your money has been a pretty good trade so far this year.


In US dollar terms, buying an index of Japanese government bonds or Swiss government bonds has returned more than 6% so far in 2016. That’s far better than a rather ugly 9% decline—including dividends—that investors got from investing in the US stock market.

So paying a borrower to take your money isn’t a *’s bet after all. At least not lately.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 15, 2016, 03:51:52 PM
Hong Kong defends contract with China maker of defective SMRT trains ~ 13 Jul 2016

Minister Khaw explains MOT’s decision on defective SMRT trains: "Going public could have caused undue panic." ~ 13 Jul 2016

Set up govt committee to set record straight on defective SMRT trains ~ 11 Jul 2016

Hong Kong's MTR Corporation accused of cover up ~ 8 Jul 2016

Hong Kong’s MTR comes under fire after admitting it knew about faulty trains before awarding contract to manufacturer ~ 7 Jul 2016

Details of the defects and the recalls have been kept secret in both Singapore and China ~ 6 Jul 2016

Defective China MRT trains deployed in Singapore since 2011 ~ 5 Jul 2016

New trains for the Circle Line! ~ 24 Jul 2014

Downtown Line train is coming! ~ 8 Nov 2012

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: CurryLee on July 15, 2016, 04:34:44 PM
Wah! Prolexus earned 10sen ady.....  :D
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 16, 2016, 06:00:48 AM
Artificially lowered interest rates cause stagnating wages and unemployment

By Hugo Salinas Price
11 December 2014

Professor Antal E. Fekete has made a remarkable discovery in the field of Economics: artificially lowered interest rates - the fundamental instrument of economic intervention in all the developed countries, practiced in the US by the Federal Reserve - are detrimental to Labor, whether Manual Labor or Management Labor, i.e., detrimental to both the working class and the middle class.

So far as I know, Professor Fekete is the first thinker to point out this particular consequence of an artificially and rapidly lowered interest rate.

The "Developed World" goes along with the Keynesian proposition of lowering interest rates drastically, to juice economies that are re-adjusting to previous juicing through credit expansion not based on previous accumulated savings. Accordingly, the slowest rates of increasing employment (if indeed there is any increase at all, since the statistics are universally doctored to look good and justify Central Bank intervention) are presented by the countries of the Developed World, which are suffering incredibly low rates of interest.

On the other hand, the "Emerging Markets" which have not applied QE and suppression of the interest rate so vigorously, are showing higher rates of employment than the "Developed World".

In a video on the Internet recently, viewers got a look at social conditions in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The number of humans is appalling. At the end of the period of fasting of Ramadan, incredible swarms of humans cram into the trains and climb up in hordes upon the roofs of the railroad cars.

The activity of boats on the massive river that goes through Dhaka is amazing; hundreds of boats are seen scampering over the river in constant activity.

There is no question of unemployment in Bangladesh, in spite of the fact that Dhaka is one of the most populated cities on the planet. Why? Because in Bangladesh, if you don't work, you don't eat. The economy of Bangladesh, left to itself, provides the maximum output possible for the massive population. Any intervention - and I do suppose they have some government intervention in their economy - must be minimal, because anything more than that would mean death for hundreds of thousands living at the very margin of sustainable life.

There is only one sort of economics in this world, because there is only one sort of human nature. Economics is simply one branch of the study of human nature: the study of the human being as an entity that acts, which is the same as saying that the human being chooses. Other species of living beings may exhibit a limited capacity for choosing, but the human being is entirely dependent on choosing - and making the right choices - for the sustenance of his life. The animal kingdom relies on instinct; the human being relies on his choices, which are not instinctive.

I mention this, because it appears that this fact escapes the high and mighty planners of national economies, known to us as "Keynesians".

When the planners proceed to lower interest rates in the economy, their decision affects not just some sectors, but all the people in one way or another.

Up to now, it has not been perceived that those who are most adversely affected are those who sell their work. Some of them will be manual workers, others will be better paid employees; some of them will lose their jobs as a result of rapidly lowered interest rates effected by the diktat of the Keynesian manipulators, and others will find that their wages do not increase, but either stagnate or even fall.

We must credit Professor Fekete for discovering the reason for this phenomenon.

Enterprises engage in production by combining Capital goods with Labor.

When the interest rate is forcibly lowered, the managements of enterprises receive a signal that tells them that Capital is abundant and suddenly much easier to acquire, by means of cheaper additional debt, than previously.

The manager examines his cash flow and makes a comparison between a) the amount of his cash flow that might go to acquiring additional Capital goods through debt, to apply in production, and b) the amount of his cash flow that goes to overall Labor costs. The cash flow that goes to Labor costs has not diminished, whereas the cash flow that could be applied to obtaining Capital goods through debt is now relatively smaller. Labor has become more expensive, relative to Capital goods obtainable through debt.

The entirely natural consequence of this comparison is that management will seek to reduce relatively more expensive Labor by taking on debt to acquire Capital goods to replace overall Labor costs. In other words, the "terms of trade" for manual laborers and employees are now set up against them.

The violent reduction of the interest rate has thus caused a set of responses by management that are adverse to Labor:

1. If laborers and employees can be substituted with Capital goods financed with ultra-low interest debt in order to automate the enterprise, the marginal laborers and employees will be laid off.

2. New enterprises that cannot command debt will be at a competitive disadvantage with larger enterprises which can take on debt and reduce costs by laying off some workers and employees. Small enterprises, the backbone of the economies of the Developed Countries, are adversely affected.

3. The relatively low cost of acquiring Capital goods, by means of taking on ultra-low interest-bearing debt, leads to the installation of enterprises massively capitalized with machinery; such enterprises employ few workers and employees. Modern auto manufacturing plants are an example.

4. Further, the relatively low cash flow required to finance the use of Capital goods, leads to the installation of enterprises massively capitalized with machinery to produce the technologically advanced Capital goods now in great demand, which will be used in other enterprises to lay off or reduce the need for manual labor: the technological boom is set off and robots and computer systematizations proliferate to the detriment of marginal manual labor and employees.

5. If we consider the work of the manual laborer and the ability of the employee as the "Capital" which they offer on the market, the return on their personal "Capital" has not been reduced; therefore, the wages which they obtained before the violent reduction of the interest rate can be sustained only precariously. They face either stagnant wages, or lower wages, or unemployment. The marginal worker and the marginal employee are laid off.

6. The middle class, which has worked to accumulate sufficient Capital on which to retire, now finds that the interest on their invested Capital is now insufficient to provide sustenance; the middle class goes into debt in an attempt to maintain their standard of living. The middle class delay their retirement and younger people do not find vacancies available.

7. With income for the mass of workers and the huge middle class stagnating, consumption must fall. The vision of Henry Ford was apt, when he said that he wanted his workers to have an income that would make them able to purchase the cars they manufactured. Stagnant wages and unemployment produce stagnant consumption. Empty shopping malls.

During the Industrial Revolution in England, the "Luddites" objected to the destruction of their jobs by newly-invented machinery. However, the reorganization of production along industrial lines eventually elevated the standard of living of the English by producing masses of much cheaper goods for the population. No greater advance in general prosperity has equaled that which took place in the 19th century and which was due to the use of machinery - Capital goods - in production. This was a natural development of the economies of the nations of the West.

The arbitrary and violent reduction of interest rates by the Keynesians in charge of the Central Banks of the West is no natural development. the arbitrary interventions of the Keynesians in reducing interest rates violently has acted to the great disadvantage of the class of people who must work for wages, whether manual laborers or employees.

Neither the Keynesian at the Central Banks, which carry out the policy of reducing the interest rate in order to stimulate their economies, nor the numerous critics of Zero Interest Rate Policy have been aware of the chain of causation between ZIRP and the plight of manual labor and employees.

Professor Fekete  (see: has contributed importantly to Economics by pointing out the adverse effects of interest rate manipulation upon workers and employees.


Bank Negara governor: OPR cut is pre-emptive ~ 15 Jul 2016

Pound on track for its best week since 2009 after Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged ~ 14 Jul 2016

Bank of England leaves UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% ~ 14 Jul 2016

Maybank lowers interest rates to 3% ~ 14 Jul 2016

BNM cuts interest rate to 3% ~ 13 Jul 2016

"If people are not borrowing with interest rate at 0.5%, it is unlikely that a cut to 0.25% or zero will make much difference. However, such a cut would further negatively impact savers and pensioners. QE and low interest rates are deflationary. Why is this so hard for economists and central bankers to grasp?"

How do changes in national interest rates affect a currency's value and exchange rate?

How currency changes affect imports and exports

First BOE interest-rate cut since 2009 may come next week ~ 9 Jul 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 17, 2016, 10:17:53 AM
Singapore and Malaysia to sign MOU on High-Speed Rail on July 19 ~ 15 Jul 2016


Singapore developer sales down 50% in June ~ 15 Jul 2016


No easing of property curbs in Singapore until 2017, say experts

By Romesh Navaratnarajah
July 13, 2016

Although home prices may start bottoming out in the next few quarters, which could prompt a moderate recovery from 2018, easing of property cooling measures are not expected until next year at the earliest, according to property experts at the Real Estate Developers’ Association (Redas) property market seminar on Tuesday (12 July), and reported TODAYonline.

Dr Chua Yang Liang, Research Head at JLL Southeast Asia, said the potential recovery range will likely be driven primarily by a pickup in the prime residential market, and in line with GDP growth.

“(Singapore’s housing prices) are close to a trough with economic conditions steady and physical market conditions balancing … The gap between the prime and non-prime market has narrowed and when economic conditions improve, we should expect the high-end market to pick up,” he said.

Meanwhile, growth in demand within the mass market segment will continue to be slow, with gradual price adjustments considering the policy measures and supply overhang. Chua also expects the residential rental market to remain soft.

Since 2009, the government has introduced a slew of property cooling measures and loan curbs to rein in the runaway property market, with the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework and Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) being the most significant.

The government has been reluctant to lift the property cooling measures, despite repeated calls from real estate agents and property developers for the measures to be eased.

Singapore saw private home prices soar by more than 60 percent following the 2009 Global Financial Crisis to peak in Q3 2013.

Since then, home prices have fallen by 9.4 percent over 11 consecutive quarters, or its longest losing streak on record, based on the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) latest flash estimates.

Nonetheless, property experts does not expect the property cooling measures to be eased anytime soon.

“I think the earliest we may see some unwinding of measures will be 2017 because we haven’t quite reached the double-digit price correction that they want,” said Selena Ling, Head, Treasury Research and Strategy, OCBC.

URA flash estimates released this month show that the private residential property price index dropped by 0.4 percent in Q2, a slight improvement from the 0.7 percent decline registered in the first quarter.

Quek’s son takes bigger role ~ 13 Jul 2016


GuocoLand wins tender for plum River Valley site after record $595.1m bid ~ 1 Jul 2016


The Chinese factor - 5 ways investments from China will impact the property landscape in Iskandar Malaysia ~ 30 Jun 2016


UEM Sunrise sells land to S. Korea’s Amorepacific ~ 30 Jun 2016

Singapore second quarter property sales by auction more than doubles ~ 28 Jun 2016


Some Singapore developers slash prime home prices by up to 30% to dodge extension charges

10 Jun 2016

Discount schemes are working well, analysts say.

In a desperate bid to dodge hefty extension charges, developers are resorting to huge discounts and creative marketing schemes in order to sell units at a number of high-end residential projects, according to a report by UOB Kay Hian.

At Ardmore Three, for instance, Wheelock has rolled out an ABSD Assistance package which offers a further discount of 13% to 15%. The package comes on top of an existing 15% discount, which effectively translates to a 30% price cut.

The ABSD Assistance package effectively jump-started sales at Ardmore Three, which had only sold seven units in March 2016. At a recent site visit, UOB Kay Hian learned that the development has sold up to 40 units, with the cheapest units priced at $2,560 psf including the discounts.

Pricier units at higher floors of Ardmore Three are priced at above $3,000 psf. The average selling price of $2,800 psf is a far cry from the project's original price range of $3,000-$4,000 psf.

“We have been seeing nascent signs of life in the high-end market as developers relent on pricing at selected projects, dangling discounts to entice,” UOB Kay Hian said.

Over at the 174-unit project Gramercy Park, City Developments has been offering discounts of up to 18%, which comes on top of a 2% price reduction. The discounts resulted in the sale of about 6-7 units, but CDL has rebuffed attempts at further price cuts.

"The slower uptake compared with that for Ardmore Three implies that prices cuts could well be too shallow to appeal to prospective homebuyers, and an effective discount of about 30%, representing prices as low as $2,000 psf for selected units could possibly trigger the same surge of interest witnessed at Ardmore 3,” the report noted.

Singapore boutique developer distress ~ 20 May 2016


Malaysia - a long-term property play ~ 20 Apr 2016


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 18, 2016, 11:25:35 AM
EXCLUSIVE - 'Why shouldn't we enjoy ourselves just because the country is burning?' Super-rich Socialists quaff champagne in Venezuela country club while middle class mothers scavenge for scraps in the gutter... and even the DOGS are starving ~ 16 Jun 2016







Thousands of Venezuelans cross into Colombia in search of food and medicine ~ 17 Jul 2016





My picture of the week: A roll of toilet paper and right back home ~ 16 Jul 2016


Analysis: Venezuelan military had big role in economic woes ~ 15 Jul 2016


Venezuela bonds at risk as military takes control ~ 15 July 2016


Venezuela trucks food directly to the poorest as chaos spreads ~ 13 Jul 2016


In China, Venezuela default talk is front-page news ~ 16 Jun 2016


Bakery looted amid Venezuela food widespread shortages ~ 29 Jun 2016

How the wheels fell off of Venezuela's socialist revolution ~ 23 Jun 2016

Footage of Looting & Food Riots in Venezuela ~ 21 Jun 2016

Venezuela’s food shortages trigger long lines, hunger and looting ~ 17 Jun 2016

How Venezuela’s socialist dream collapsed into a nightmare ~ 26 May 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: penang_lim on July 18, 2016, 01:21:07 PM
Is the falling oil prices contributing to the degeneration of Venezuela economy.  Looks like it is spirally down out of control.

I remember reading about the popular President Hugo Chavez but he passed away due to cancer few years ago.  His deputy Maduru took over befor the oil price plunged last year.

Looks like Venezuela is ending up like Zimbawe.   :'(
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: Salahdin on July 19, 2016, 11:03:28 PM
The cash reserve of Venezuela were only at USD2billion early 2016.

In Malaysia, our Federal Reserve were at RM120billion (~USD30billion) due to prudence saving by our past Bank Negara Zeti.  :clap:

The dark side is on the run-off effect of 1MDB to our economy.

Hope that our new Bank Negara gabenor could continue the good work of Zeti.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 21, 2016, 06:09:47 AM
The cash reserve of Venezuela were only at USD2billion early 2016.

In Malaysia, our Federal Reserve were at RM120billion (~USD30billion) due to prudence saving by our past Bank Negara Zeti.  :clap:

The dark side is on the run-off effect of 1MDB to our economy.

Hope that our new Bank Negara gabenor could continue the good work of Zeti.

BNM International Reserves at RM390.4 billion (US$97.2 billion) as at 30 Jun 2016

BNM International Reserves at US$95.63 billion as at Feb 2016


BNM International Reserves at RM357.7 billion (US$94.7 billion) as at 28 Aug 2015

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 21, 2016, 06:16:56 AM
「升級版」的官商勾結。= A comprehensive response - it involves the Reserve Bank, it involves councils and it involves the Government.

Politician flips out: Exposes central bank scam ~ 18 July 2016
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 27, 2016, 04:53:54 PM
Clinton emails reveal direct US sabotage of Venezuela ~ 26 July 2016

Special Report: In Venezuela's murky oil industry, the deal that went too far ~ 26 Jul 2016

Venezuela’s economic woes send a chill over closest ally Cuba ~ 26 Jul 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 30, 2016, 04:14:07 PM
「升級版」的官商勾結。= A comprehensive response - it involves the Reserve Bank, it involves councils and it involves the Government.

Politician flips out: Exposes central bank scam ~ 18 July 2016

US: Bankers no longer too big to jail? ~ 29 Jul 2016

Companies have a $10 trillion bill that is coming due ~ 28 Jul 2016

Corrupt or just stupid? Markets hand corporations an unlimited credit card ~ 27 Jul 2016

China’s debt problem may be worse than expected, Moody’s warns ~ 27 Jul 2016

An upside-down world ~ 22 Jul 2016

China's ballooning corporate debt a key tail risk for global credit: S&P ~ 21 Jul 2016

Corporate debt seen ballooning to $75 trillion: S&P ~ 20 Jul 2016

David Rosenberg: The muddle-through economy can continue, but stock market extended ~ 12 Jul 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 01, 2016, 05:10:49 PM
After Brexit, EU bosses unveil plot for "Giant Superstate" ~ 28 Jun 2016

European SUPERSTATE to be unveiled: EU nations 'to be morphed into one' post-Brexit ~ 28 Jun 2016

Brexit the movie full film ~ 12 May 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 02, 2016, 09:06:34 AM
If it seems too good to be true, it probably is...


How market crooks operate ~  4 Jun 2005


Singapore regulator charges Malaysian investor with spoofing ~ 22 July 2016

Singapore charges 2 men with insider trading on 2 stocks; Qualitas Medical Group Ltd. and Leeden Ltd. ~ 12 May 2016

Soh Chee Wen 'mastermind' of penny stock crash: Prosecutor ~ 28 Jan 2016


Repco case a reality check for those watching Singapore penny stock probe ~ 27 Jan 2016


Story behind penny stock crash ~ 3 May 2014


Four stocks hit limit down, Bursa queries ~ 29 Apr 2014




Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 11, 2016, 11:24:56 AM
"Time is the coin of your life. It is the only coin you have, and only you can determine how it will be spent. Be careful lest you let other people spend it for you." — Carl Sandburg

Swiber saga DBS says bond sales driven by demand

Bank adds that Swiber and oil prices were both going strong when bonds rolled out

By Wong Wei Han
6 Aug 2016


SINGAPORE - The Swiber Holdings bonds sold by DBS Bank to clients were rolled out to voracious demand, at a time when the company and oil prices were going strong. So DBS should not be singled out for scrutiny over bondholders' exposure to Swiber's demise, a bank spokesman noted, in response to claims that DBS and its staff may have pushed the Swiber bonds to clients who were little aware of the products' risk profile.

Swiber this week defaulted on its semi-annual payment for its $150 million 001 Trust Certificates.

A self-employed man, who wanted to be known only as Mr Jin, said he had invested $500,000 in two Swiber bond issues through DBS. "I was simply following the advice of my relationship manager, who never told me much about the company. I just thought, a bank in Singapore, with this much regulation, would not recommend risky investments," the 44-year-old said.

DBS said the sale was driven by demand: "Many clients were reaching out to us and... private banks for yield instruments, given the very low interest rate environment."

There are two outstanding vanilla Singdollar Swiber bonds: a $160 million issue in 2013, with an annual yield of 7.125 per cent, got orders of $240 million; and a $100 million issue in 2014, with a 5.55 per cent yield, had over $500 million worth of orders. The bonds were distributed by various banks here, including United Overseas Bank and OCBC.

Market conditions were positive, and concerned investors had plenty of chances to exit, DBS added.

"The two bonds were issued in 2013 and 2014, when oil prices were still above US$100 a barrel and Swiber stock was trading above $1."

The Swiber bonds were available only to accredited investors - with net personal assets of more than $2 million - or those investing a minimum of $250,000.

Mr Jin said: "I'm a new immigrant and could barely understand English. I just signed whatever papers the relationship manager gave me."

Another investor, who asked to be known only as Laura, 34, and a banker, said: "My banker said DBS could lend me money to invest, so I'm 50 per cent leveraged on Swiber bonds. Now they've defaulted, I'm asked to pay the bank $250,000 by next Tuesday to cover the margin."

The DBS spokesman said: "DBS does lend against all eligible and acceptable market securities, and investment leverage is offered to wealth customers based on prudent underwriting standards. This includes imposing criteria on the credit quality and duration of fixed income securities as well as requiring the underlying investments of each customer to be diversified."

DBS relationship managers are rewarded based on a balanced scorecard, and there is no direct link between sales targets and remunerations, the spokesman added.

Outstanding plain Sing$ Swiber Bonds

$160m issue

Issued: 2013

Annual yield: 7.125 per cent

Orders: $240 million

$100m issue

Issued: 2014

Annual yield: 5.55 per cent

Orders: Over $500 million

Exuberance boiling over in the market for perpetuals

By Goh Eng Yeow
2 June 2016

SINGAPORE - One of my favourite quotes on investments comes from Sir John Templeton who once noted that bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.

This is what leads me to believe that given the moribund state of the stock market with overall daily turnover falling well below the $1 billion mark for many of the trading days in the past few weeks, there is little danger of share prices plunging for now since there are few signs of euphoria among traders.

But then I may be hunting for irrational investment exuberance in the wrong market.

There are, after all, various financial assets which an investor can pour his money into - and interest in one of them has turned red-hot.

This is the local corporate bond market where yield-hungry investors have been happily snapping up one fresh issue after another.

What is of interest, as I had noted in my recent Cai Jin column, is the strong revival in interest in a certain bond-like instrument known as perpetuals, or perps, for short.

The attractive feature about a perp is that it comes with an attractive coupon payout - easily the highest payout which an investor can get in the market. Currently, coupons for perps are in the range of 4 per cent or more.

But the catch is that the issuer has the discretion to withdraw the coupon payment without triggering a default on his other outstanding loans. (In other words, it won't go bankrupt if it decides not to make interest payment on the perps and there is no recourse for investors to get it to pay up.)

The issuer also reserves the right to repay the principal to the perp investor, and in this context, the perp may literally mean a loan in perpetuity.

The other feature about perps is that companies will only issue them to lock up the funds needed to run their business, despite the high interest costs, when liquidity is tightening - like now when the US central bank is beating the drum on the likelihood of further interest rates hikes ahead.

Now, considering all the reservations raised about perps, I would have thought that investors should tread it with care. But if there is one market where exuberance has reached fever-pitch, it is the perp issuance market here.

Earlier this week, there was a report that UK insurer Prudential plc had received orders of over US$12 billion when it launched its perp issue of US$1 billion here.

The huge interest which Prudential drew to its perp issue simply highlights the large sums of money sitting idle in the local banking system looking for a better venue for investment.

This is considering the big sums already spent by investors who snapped up other recent perp issues launched by the likes of United Overseas Bank, Mapletree Logistics Trust and Societe Generale.

But the fact that perps are drawing investors in big numbers has made some market * worried.

It is also perplexing to find foreign issuers jostling with local companies for funds in the local perp market.

After I made a case for the need to have bonds rated in a separate column recently, I got an email from former investment banker Ng Lak Chuan expressing surprise that I did not examine the Hyflux perp issue in more detail in my write-up.

While other perp issuers had confined their offerings to the wholesale market, whose target audience were fund managers, pension funds and wealthy individuals, Hyflux had gone one step further and opened up its perp offering to retail investors.

While it had initially wanted to raise only $300 million from its perp issue, it managed to upsize its offering to $500 million, after getting an overwhelming response from the investing public.

But Mr Ng was concerned that issues such as Hyflux's declining profitability and the high leverage on its balance sheet had not been given a proper airing.

I also have concerns of a more general nature where the bond market is concerned.

When interest rates go up, bond prices go down because investors demand a higher yield in order to continue holding the bonds.

For bond investors, the biggest worry is the threat of rates hikes that may come from the United States and the collateral damage it may inflict on the debt market here.

That is because any US interest rate hike may cause international investors to pull their money out of regional markets.

To stop the funds from draining out of the region, and to address this problem, interest rates will have to jack up in order to lure them to continue to keep their money here.

Therein lies the problem.

The US Fed can afford to raise interest rates in what it describes as a "normalisation" exercise - after depressing it for many years after the 2008 global financial crisis - because the US economy is humming along just fine with unemployment falling back to its pre-crisis low of 5 per cent.

But Asean countries can ill-afford to do likewise and jack up interest rates because their economies have turned sluggish. If anything, they have to loosen their monetary policies in a big way and cut interest rates aggressively to stir up demand.

But the threat of capital outflow by international investors destabilising their economies may leave them no choice at all.

Asian bond markets had a foretaste of this massive outflow of foreign capital in late 2013 during the "taper tantrum" drama, when then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke first hinted at scaling back the then massive sums which the US central bank had been pouring into the financial market each month as part of its efforts to revive the US economy.

Maybe, it is with this episode in mind that many companies are issuing perps to ensure that they are not caught short of capital just when it is needed most just in case there is a credit crunch.

Of course, they may just be playing it safe. But there is no harm in making hay while the sun shines.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 12, 2016, 11:34:15 AM

Independent or irrelevant directors?

Independence of these three Swiber directors is debatable

By Mak Yuen Teen
3 Aug 2016

Swiber's tardy disclosures, sudden announcement of a winding-up application, mass resignations of executive directors, reversal of its winding-up application and retraction of a resignation announcement have befuddled and angered investors. Singapore Exchange's chief regulatory officer has - quite rightly - said that there will be investigations and regulatory actions may be taken.

When Swiber won in the small-cap category of the Singapore Corporate Governance Award in 2012, its group chief executive Francis Wong had this to say: "… We also continue to review our processes to improve each aspect of corporate governance to be in line with best practices. Swiber's board is mindful of the interests of its stakeholders … Swiber will continue to be a steward of excellent corporate governance practices across its operations."

Swiber's approach to corporate governance disclosures and practices has not changed much over the years, and, given the recent events, those words ring hollow now.

Mr Wong was one of the three executive directors who suddenly jumped from the burning platform on July 28, said a company announcement, although it was later said that the group chief financial officer did not in fact do so. Meanwhile, Swiber's executive chairman Raymond Kim Goh resigned as non-executive chairman of Vallianz Holdings, a related company of Swiber, on July 27 "due to health reasons", but has apparently stayed healthy enough to remain on the Swiber board.

The company's corporate governance report says all executive directors signed separate service agreements which can be "terminated by either party, giving not less than six months' notice to the other". The service agreements have turned out to be as watertight as the company's disclosures, given that the executive directors were able to resign with immediate effect, leaving the company adrift.

Swiber is another case of a company that has highly questionable corporate governance practices and disclosures that investors, creditors and other stakeholders appear to have overlooked, perhaps because it was considered, as one media report put it, a "darling in the Singapore oil and gas sector". In 2008, it made it into Forbes Asia's list of 200 Best Under a Billion.


Let's start with its board of directors. Before the recent resignations, Swiber had a board of nine directors - six executive directors and three independent directors. Therefore, while it met the guideline of one-third of independent directors in the Singapore Code of Corporate Governance, the executive directors far outnumbered the independent directors in decision making by the board, which was a management board rather than an oversight board.

Although the company technically separated the chairman and CEO roles, the chairman is an executive chairman, so must one question the effective separation between the chairing of the board and the day-to-day running of the company. Further, both the chairman and the deputy group CEO, Yeo Chee Neng (also known as Darren Yeo), are controlling shareholders. Therefore, the board is effectively controlled by management and controlling shareholders.

The company appointed a lead independent director, Yeo Jeu Nam, who has been on the board for just under 10 years and who also serves as an independent director of Vallianz. While serving as a non-executive director on the boards of both Swiber and its related company Vallianz does not necessarily preclude him from being considered independent on either board under the Code, it may suggest a close affiliation with the management and major shareholders of the two companies, as the chairman and CEO of Swiber were respectively non-executive chairman and non-executive deputy chairman of Vallianz (until the recent resignation of the former). Further, there are almost certainly situations where he will face conflicts in discharging his fiduciary duties to both companies.

Although Yeo Jeu Nam has experience in two major accounting firms, he was on the consulting side of those firms; his biography suggests that he does not have an accounting or finance background. Neither do the other two independent directors. One of them is Chia Fook Eng, who has a marine engineering background. Before his appointment in 2009, he was an advisor to Swiber's board on "matters relating to the Group's business". There would be questions about whether he should be considered independent.

The third independent director is lawyer Oon Thian Seng, a founding partner of Oon & Bazul LLP here. The law firm's website says Mr Oon "is noted for his ability to handle disputes involving highly technical issues and is regularly instructed by clients in the oil & gas, banking, international trade, insurance, shipping and construction industries" and is an expert on shipping matters. In the 2015 corporate governance report, Swiber disclosed that it had dealings with his law firm, although he had declared that he is not involved directly or indirectly in work that his law firm does for Swiber. Nevertheless, as a major partner, he clearly has a financial interest in the work. Again, there would be questions about his independence.

Therefore, collectively, the independent directors bring relevant industry experience but appear lacking in financial and accounting expertise; there are also doubts about their independence.

Further, one must wonder about their role and authority, given the overwhelming dominance of management and controlling shareholders on the board. Like the executive directors, they owe fiduciary duties to the company and therefore their action (or inaction) leading up to, and during, the recent events should be scrutinised in any regulatory inquiry.

Much of the affairs of Swiber are undertaken through its executive committee, which includes only the six executive directors, again raising questions about the role of the independent directors. It is also interesting that the group CEO is a member of the Audit Committee, which is not in accordance with the Code.

The remuneration disclosures and practices of Swiber are even more questionable, with almost a total disregard for the recommendations of the Code. It discloses the remuneration of its six executive directors in a single band of "S$500,000 and above" and the remuneration of the independent directors in a single band of "below S$250,000". It cites the "competitive nature of the company's business" and "sensitivity of information" as reasons for non-disclosure. One must ask if the independent directors should have pushed for greater transparency, at least for the fees paid to themselves. Surely, the risk of the controlling shareholders and the independent directors being poached is non-existent.

In disclosing the percentage breakdown for different remuneration components, Swiber lumps the annual cash bonus with performance incentives, the latter referring to "long-term cash incentive plan and long-term performance-driven plan". The percentages for this component in the latest annual report ranged from 56 per cent to 91 per cent for the six executive directors. Since the controlling shareholders up to that point did not participate in the share option or share plans, we can surmise that the performance incentives for them are generally in cold, hard cash (although as mentioned shortly, this was to change after the recent AGM and, in 2013, when the controlling shareholders received Vallianz shares under their Swiber remuneration). In the case of the executive chairman-cum-controlling shareholder, his bonus / performance incentive was 91 per cent of his total remuneration; for the deputy CEO-cum-controlling shareholder, it was 73 per cent.

Instead of naming and disclosing the remuneration of the five key management personnel who are not directors and CEO at least in bands of S$250,000, Swiber chose to disclose the top 10 without naming them. Again, it cites "confidentiality" and "competition". Further, for eight of them, the top band is disclosed as "S$450,000 or more". Swiber also does not disclose the aggregate total remuneration for the top five as a group as recommended by the Code - nor does it do so for the top 10.

Since the company chose to be non-transparent about the exact remuneration of its executive directors, I attempted to gauge how much they were actually getting. Note 33 for "Related Party Transactions" in the 2015 annual report said the total key management personnel remuneration was US$9.086 million. The relevant accounting standard provides a definition of "key management personnel", but companies have discretion as to who are included, and are not required to disclose who they are.

I assume that key management personnel for Swiber include the six executive directors and three non-executive independent directors on the board. I then subtracted the US$297,000 for directors' fees to remove the amount of fees that were paid to the non-executive directors (although Swiber's executive directors do receive directors' fees, so not all of these fees are paid to the non-executive directors). That comes to about US$8.8 million. Using an exchange rate of US$1: S$1.35, this amounts to about S$12 million. Therefore, I estimate that the average remuneration of each of the six executive directors is closer to S$2 million than S$500,000. Of course, mine is only a ballpark estimate, but the company can hardly blame me for being wrong, given the opaqueness of its disclosures. This is a good example of how misleading unlimited band disclosures such as "S$500,000 and more" can be.

In 2013, key management personnel remuneration as disclosed under the "Related Party Transactions" note jumped from under US$8.2 million in 2012 to US$18.5 million. Although profits showed a healthy increase that year, operating cash flows went from negative S$69 million to negative S$87 million. The directors' remuneration section in the corporate governance report remarkably shows that none of the executive directors, except for the CFO, received any bonus or performance incentives. Either the company misreported, or the additional share remuneration the key management personnel received were considered salary or benefits. Neither explanation puts the company in a good light.


Note 35 in the 2014 annual report disclosed that the major source of the big remuneration increase was a transfer of 89.78 million Vallianz shares "to certain key management personnel as part of employee compensation expenses" for 2013. The fair value of these shares was US$14.1 million. It was also disclosed that the transfer of shares actually took place on March 7, 2014.

Since Mr Goh and Mr Darren Yeo are directors of Vallianz, their change in interest in the shares of Vallianz was disclosed in two Vallianz announcements on March 10, 2014. From those announcements, we can see that Mr Goh got 23 million shares, and Mr Yeo, 10 million. At the then-heady Vallianz share price of 15 cents each, the actual value of those shares alone was S$3.45 million and S$1.5 million respectively - again, a far cry from S$500,000.

Although the chairman and deputy CEO are controlling shareholders, they collectively own - directly or indirectly - only about 18 per cent of the company. However, their key management roles in the company will act like leverage in enhancing their control of the company.

Where there is effective control with relatively low economic interest (effective ownership), minority shareholders probably face the greatest peril. This is because the relatively low economic interest will lead to lack of strong alignment with the company's interests, while at the same time opening the way for control over key decisions.

Where there is low effective ownership, major shareholders would be much better off receiving their "returns" through remuneration rather than through dividends. Swiber does not have a formal dividend policy and has paid dividends only sporadically to ordinary shareholders in the last six years. In contrast, since 2010, it has paid its key management personnel, including its controlling shareholders, remuneration totalling US$69.2 million.

At its April 2016 AGM, Swiber had sought shareholders' approval for the proposed adoption of a new share option scheme and performance share scheme, and to allow the grant of options at a discount of up to 20 per cent. In a departure from past practice, it sought shareholders' approval to allow the two controlling shareholders to participate in these schemes. They abstained from voting and the resolutions were passed, although nearly a quarter or more of votes cast were against these resolutions, with 46 per cent voting against discounted options.

The company did not explain the rationale for the change in remuneration policy for the controlling shareholders in its notice of AGM. Perhaps it was a sign that the company was running out of cash to pay the executive directors their "S$500,000 and more" remuneration packages.

The writer is an associate professor at the NUS Business School, where he teaches corporate governance and ethics.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 12, 2016, 03:51:23 PM
Malaysia introduced new tax perks for shipbuilding and ship repair yards ~ 11 Aug 2016

Singapore shipyards in dire straits

By Gwyneth Yeo
August 11, 2016

UOB Kay Hian is downgrading Singapore shipyards to “underweight” as orders are put on hold, aborted or delayed amid the low oil price environment.

In a note on Thursday, analyst Foo Zhiwei notes that orders for floating production system (FPS) have fallen below the eight-year average of 1.5 units per month. Only two FPS orders were recorded for the year to July, which translates to 0.6 unit per month for 3Q2016.

On top of that, fewer of the planned FPS orders are reaching the final bidding stages, as low oil prices have made it “difficult for companies to sanction projects”, says Foo. Only 21% of the 241 planned FPS projects globally made it to the bidding and final stages, while 142 are in the planning stage and 49 in the appraisal stage. At its peak, 31% of planned projects made it to the final stage.

Meanwhile, only 34% of the 56 FPS projects which were in their final stages in 3Q2015 were awarded a contract or remain on track for a contract. Thirty-two per cent of them were sent back to the planning stage or cancelled, while 34% had their award dates delayed by a year or more. “Net realisation of orders in the continued low oil price environment is low as projects remain uneconomical,” explains Foo.

Foo estimates that Singapore shipyards will win about US$1.9 billion ($2.6 billion) in FPS orders per year from 2016 to 2019, given that 41% of the total US$37 billion of global FPS orders involves conversion, a specialty of the Singapore yards, and assuming half of the global orders go local yards.

However, those numbers could be lower in reality, says Foo, given the recent competition from Chinese yards for conversion orders and the lower net realisation of projects.

The brokerage is forecasting an outlook of near-zero newbuild rig orders until 2020, and together with the dismal FPS market, Foo expects the yards to report poor earnings for the next five years with lower dividend payouts.

Of the yards, Foo prefers Keppel over Sembcorp Marine given the former’s property, infrastructure and investment businesses. “Sembcorp Marine’s earnings are under more pressure as it has no other businesses to diversify to and risks its rig-building and conversion orderbook running low,” he says.

UOB Kay Hian has a “hold” recommendation for both Keppel and Sembcorp Marine, with a target price of $5.70 and $1.27 respectively.

Ezion Holdings: 3Q likely to be soft

OCBC Research - 12 Aug 2016
US$19.8m net profit in 2Q16

Ezion Holdings reported a 7.0% YoY drop in revenue to US$83.7m and a 31.5% fall in net profit to US$19.8m in 2Q16, such that 1H16 net profit accounted for 52% and 45% of ours and the street’s full year estimates, respectively. Revenue was lower as a few service rigs underwent modification and routine class surveys, while bottom-line was boosted by a US$14.6m gain on disposal of an asset.

Gross profit margin was lower at 21.4% in 2Q16 vs. 25.2% in 1Q16, mainly because a service rig that worked in 1Q16 was taken out of the fleet for major enhancements in 2Q16 and did not contribute to revenue in the quarter. Costs such as depreciation, interest and crew costs continued to be incurred. In addition, an associated company recognised impairment losses and there were lower contributions from JVs.

From a cashflow perspective, Ezion generated operating cash flow of US$27.4m in the quarter, bringing 1H16 net operating cashflow to US$58.3m.

3Q16 likely to be lacklustre

Looking ahead, Ezion expects to generate more cashflows in 4Q16 as about four of its units should be deployed by then. For 3Q16, however, we are more circumspect and expect core operating results should be similar to 2Q16. It would also not be surprising if the group takes the chance to refinance some of its short-term debt (e.g. lengthening tenor etc) in 3Q16, considering that it has not done so since the onset of the oil crisis.

Lower valuations across the board

The Swiber incident has greatly affected sentiment in the O&M sector, and corporates are likely to find it difficult to raise new funds under the current environment. Fortunately for Ezion, the group was able to raise about US$100m from its recent rights issue before news about Swiber broke out. However, given lower valuations that the sector is trading at, we lower our valuation from 0.4x to 0.35x NTA, such that our fair value estimate drops from S$0.42 (post-rights) to S$0.30. Maintain HOLD. 

Ezion ~ Bearish rising wedge breakout


Ezion (weekly) ~ Fall off the cliff on 26 Sep 2014


“The crowd always loses because the crowd is always wrong. It is wrong because it behaves normally.” ~ Fred C. Kelly

Ezion Holdings: Hollow man or how inattention to industry fundamentals can kill

By Andre Wheeler
July 13th, 2015

Having recently read an analysis of the failure of Chinese shipping by Charles de Trenck, published by Splash as well as Joseph Triepke’s article published in OilPro, a common theme seems to be emerging in the oil and gas sector, particularly service providers. This theme can best be summarised as the lack of focus in the underlying fundamentals in the sector can be catastrophic for decision making. When the oil price was buoyant, marine service providers could be robust in their assumptions that could focus on one or two elements to support their notion of ongoing profitability and sustainable growth. In the case of Charles’s article, investment in Chinese shipyards was based on the cost advantage in manufacture presented by Chinese yards but failed to take account of risk associated with the availability of large amounts of ‘free money’ with a focus on cheap ships and not the real cost of associated activities, such as containers. Joseph’s article highlights a worrying trend in those servicing the oil patch – namely the financial treatment of orderbacklog. He highlights that Technip has good value in its backlog, however all profitable work for 2016 was booked in 2013/14. This will not be good for their P&L and key banking ratios next year, leading Technip to now predict that the worst is still to come for the sector.

Current debate in the sector, includes the ongoing impact of oil price volatility and how it will shape the structure of service and support industries to the sector. Unfortunately, much of the debate focusses on simple supply / demand economics, without taking a deeper look at the issues that make up price. If you are within the demand driven camp, and use the growing energy demand projections as a base for saying the price of oil is going up to the $90 – $100 mark , you generally ignore the fact that other energy sources become viable at the $70 mark, hence more competition in sources of energy. Further confusing the issue is the IEA recently revising its forecast down when talking of global oil demand, stating that the market will contract in 2016. Other factors, at a more generic level are the number of drilling and uncompleted wells (DUCs) available and less measurable impacts such as Iran supply and other geopolitical issues.

I have taken a bit of time looking at some of the macro picture in the sector, highlighting that one needs to look below the headline to get a better understanding of how the market is shaping up or how to guide your investment behaviour. I will now drill down into a single service provider to the oil and gas sector and extrapolate some of the more detailed DD that needs to be done. As a case study, I will use Singapore-based Ezion Holdings not only because I know the company fairly well but I have been a regular commentator to the industry, on this particular sector. I will also look at underlying assumptions made by the recent RHB report (2/7/2015) that was used in the recent Malaysian fund raising road show undertaken by Ezion Holdings. This will also challenge some of the assumptions, particularly what they see as strengths/opportunities, as this is where I believe investors should be focusing as these are used to smooth over the companies serious leverage issues.

These claims include, and discussed as follows:
Furthermore, other issues that have not been included in the roadshow include the following:
Whilst there are many other issues one could debate, this opinion piece is not written to suggest whether Ezion presents as a good buy or not. It comes from the perspective of highlighting to potential investors / fund managers to look at the underlying fundamentals of a business / sector or industry before making an investment decision. One needs to be more robust in their due diligence when looking at opportunities that may arise, particularly in the shipping and service providers to the offshore oil / gas sector. The fundamentals in this market have changed and we see the closing down of profit loopholes that contractors could enjoy over the past few years. As the movie Hollow Man suggests, it is not what you can see that is the problem, it is the invisible that does the killing.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 17, 2016, 11:34:09 AM
The hidden costs of China’s lifeline in the 1MDB scandal

By Sheridan Mahareva
16 August 2016


With Malaysia facing long-term repercussions for embracing Chinese money, experts warn prime minister is turning a personal scandal into a national problem

By spending about RM16 billion ringgit (US$4 billion) on troubled Malaysian state investor 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), China has bought a lot of clout in the corridors of power in this Southeast Asian nation.

Last month’s civil suit by U.S. authorities against personalities tied to 1MDB and their assets comes as local leaders worry the global financial scandal will have a deeper impact.

It is not just a question of whether Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak will serve out his term, or whether 1MDB’s mammoth debts will be fully repaid.

It is also now the country’s shrinking ability to chart independent domestic and foreign policy, because of the expensive deals — overt and covert — that will have to be made to resolve the scandal.

Some 1MDB critics also claim it is no coincidence the suit by the U.S.’ Department of Justice comes at a time of growing Chinese influence in Najib’s administration.

They point to the backdrop of the South China Sea disputes, where Malaysia and other Association of Southeast Asian (Asean) countries are locked in overlapping territorial claims with Beijing, and where the United States wants to maintain its dominance.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets and property in November and December to two separate Chinese firms last year was part of the company’s push to raise money to pay the company’s debts.

1MDB, which is Najib’s brain child and whose advisory board he heads, racked up RM42 billion in debts within five years of operation. A former prime minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, described 1MDB as the country’s single largest financial scandal and has been campaigning for Najib to resign.

Although Najib has repeatedly denied wrongdoing, the U.S. civil suit pointedly states that US$3.5 billion was “stolen from 1MDB” by its officials and their associates. Of that amount, about US$1 billion was laundered through the US and used to buy lavish properties, expensive paintings and pay gambling expenses in the U.S.

China’s purchases of 1MDB assets had helped reduce its debts to RM40.4 billion, Najib said in his 2016 New Year’s Day address. But at least one deal was controversial.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets to China General Nuclear Power Corp would have breached the limit of foreign ownership rules for local electricity companies.

1MDB critic and opposition law maker Rafizi Ramli had campaigned unsuccessfully to block the sale, claiming that it would threaten local jobs in the energy sector.

“Allowing a foreign company to fully control electricity production operations for a major national power producer has great risk.

“Electricity supply could be disrupted if there are future problems and the increase in tariffs would be based on the interests of these foreign companies,” Rafizi said last November.

Another parliamentarian, Wong Chen, said in the end the cabinet allowed an exemption to the foreign equity rules so that the deal could go through.

The government had made an exception, because it was desperate to bring in money to pay 1MDB’s debts, Wong said.

“There will be long-term geopolitical repercussions for Malaysia, because of this intense interest in embracing Chinese money,” Wong told This Week in Asia.

The trend of favouring mainland companies over others in large infrastructure projects in the future was likely to continue, said another parliamentarian, Charles Santiago.

The RM50 billion Singapore-Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail project is another venture that could involve either expertise or money from China, he said.

“The Najib administration had also floated the idea of a nuclear power plant and this too could involve money from China.”

In Sarawak, a region that straddles the island of Borneo in East Malaysia, China’s pull in Malaysia is already affecting the incomes of local fishermen.

Reports from late last year claimed that Sarawakian fishermen — like their counterparts in Indonesia and the Philippines — had been chased away from their traditional fishing grounds in the Luconia Shoals by armed Chinese vessels.

In March, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Authority (MMEA) had reportedly spotted a fleet of Chinese trawlers fishing in the area.

Malaysia claims the shoals as being in its waters. But unlike Indonesia and the Philippines, it has yet to confront or capture Chinese fishing boats that poach in the area, despite vowing to do so.

Malaysia’s low key approach could be due to both China’s help with 1MDB and the country’s history with the superpower, said Dr Tang Siew Mun, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“Malaysia was the first Asean state to normalise relations with Beijing [in the 1960s] and it was the current prime minister’s father who paved the way for the renewed bilateral relations,” Tang said.

“Malaysia’s growing dependence on China for not only trade but investment, too, has had a direct impact on its response to the South China Sea disputes.”

In June, Malaysia unilaterally released what was supposed to be a joint-Asean statement on disputes in the South China sea, after an Asean meeting with China in Kunming (??). However, the statement was retracted hours later, raising eyebrows all-round as to why Malaysia did it — to force Asean’s hand or to show China up.

Tang of ISEAS believes China is likely to continue to deploy large-scale fishing fleets to affirm its claims over the sea. This could trigger more friction between the maritime forces and fishing fleets of Malaysia and China.

“This puts pressure on Malaysia to respond to these Chinese intrusions, pitting its political-economic [interests] against strategic interests,” said Tang.

In the end, said lawmaker Santiago, “Najib has succeeded in turning his personal scandal into a national problem”.

Sheridan Mahareva is a Kuala Lumpur-based journalist.

1MDB scandal: Malaysian PM Najib Razak says no one can force him out of office ~ 15 Aug 2016


Ex-Abu Dhabi official in Swiss crosshairs over stolen 1MDB funds ~ 14 Aug 2016


'Bank Negara, governor's credibility at stake over kid gloves on 1MDB' ~ 13 Aug 2016

‘1MDB case is closed’ ~ 13 Aug 2016

In a threat to China, Malaysia vows to sink illegal fishing boats in the South China Sea ~ 2 Aug 2016

How exactly Malaysia plans to sink illegal boats was not specified. China wants to become a major maritime power and claims nearly the entire South China Sea as its own, based on a “nine-dash line” drawn on a 1940s map. A ruling last month invalidated the claim under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), but Beijing has vowed to ignore it and has belittled the tribunal behind it.


In the case of Malaysia, that means it can expect a Chinese presence in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extending from its portion of northern Borneo, also known as East Malaysia. Under UNCLOS, Malaysia should have sole extraction rights to all the natural resources extending 200 nautical miles from the coastal baseline.


Saudi royal oil group at heart of 1MDB case ~ 27 Jul 2016

1MDB: The case that has riveted Malaysia ~ 22 July 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 30, 2016, 08:32:51 AM
A massive banking crisis is brewing in Singapore, says Swiss billionaire Zulauf ~ 11 Feb 2016

Singapore banks’ risk exposure to China is contained: Analysts

By Linette Lim
12 Feb 2016

A warning of a looming crisis in Singapore’s banking industry by a high-profile Swiss billionaire investor is being downplayed by analysts, who say the system is well-placed to handle any economic shocks.

Felix Zulauf said last month that a China-related economic shock could bring about a banking crisis in Singapore, with a risk of massive capital outflows, should the world’s second-biggest economy experience a hard landing.

But while the big three banks in Singapore – DBS, OCBC, and UOB – have significant lending exposure to the greater China region, analysts say the credit risk from this is mitigated in at least two ways.

First, the majority of the exposure is to Hong Kong, while the mainland China exposure is predominately trade finance related.

These are “short-term, self-liquidating trade loans, which are traditionally safer and are mostly backed by letters of credit from systemically important Chinese banks,” according to Mr Ng Wee Siang, a credit analyst at Fitch Ratings.

Second, the Singapore banking industry is tightly regulated, with major banks like the big three subject to more stringent capital requirements. In addition, these banks are making healthy profits, which "provide another layer of cushion,” said Mr Ng.


Among the three Singapore banks, DBS has the largest lending exposure to greater China excluding Hong Kong. From 2008 to end-June last year, this rose 9 percentage points to 17 per cent of gross loans. But DBS has said that it lends to better-quality Chinese and international corporates.

Mr Jack Wang, a partner at boutique investment firm Raffles Investment, said Mr Zulauf’s prediction of an impending banking crisis in Singapore is “unlikely and baseless”, given “the relatively small direct exposure of Singapore banks to China” and the fiscal and monetary discipline at both the banking industry and central bank level.

In its latest Financial Stability Review released in November 2015, the Monetary Authority of Singapore flagged rising risks to financial stability, but said that the financial system remains sound. In the report, the financial regulator also said that banks in Singapore have strong capital and liquidity buffers to withstand severe shocks.


Analysts also said Mr Zulauf’s prediction is premised on something that appears unlikely to happen.

Fitch, for example, thinks China has the financial and administrative resources to avoid a so-called hard landing to near-zero growth. Meanwhile, Standard and Poor’s said its base case scenario is one of a manageable slowdown.

“External headwinds from a China slowdown and commodities rout will weigh on the performance of Singapore banks, but their credit fundamentals will continue to be supported by their sound capitalization and liquidity levels,” said Mr Ivan Tan, a credit analyst at Standard and Poor’s.

Cash up or ship out: it's the big O&M squeeze post-Swiber

Deleveraging and improving cash flow are key for offshore and marine players - but time may be running out for some, say analysts

29 August 2016

Singapore - CASH flow statements and debt refinancing plans of O&M (offshore and marine) counters have come under intense scrutiny, as analysts and stakeholders attempt to distinguish players more at risk than others.

It's a wake-up call triggered by the demise of the industry's once rising star, Swiber Holdings, which is now in the midst of a judicial management exercise.

A Business Times scan of small and mid-cap O&M companies - drawn from the watch lists of equity analysts - indicates a challenging patch ahead for many.

These O&M players face four key challenges: high debt-to-equity gearing of over 100 per cent; low or negative cash flows; short-term debt of above S$100 million; and/or medium-term-note redemption deadlines running through 2019.

BT drew on data released as at Aug 19 on Bloomberg, latest company results, and analyst reports.

Of the 14 companies on the list, 12 have short-term debt of over S$100 million, 10 have negative/low cash flow, and nearly all are highly geared.


With recovery still eluding the sector, the key to survival depends on how far industry players have deleveraged or cashed up to last through an industry shake-up in the wake of Swiber, analysts said. However, time may just not be on the side of many small and mid-cap industry players even as enquiries for oilfield services have increased.

IHS principal researcher Ang Dingli noted that oil companies have grown more accustomed to lower (but more stable) oil prices and may issue more tenders for new field developments at the end of 2016 or early 2017 as they are also being pressed to replace depleting oil and gas reserves. But Mr Ang qualified that these tenders will be released at a more deliberate pace and for limited projects.

He also warned that only "a few fortunate O&M players" - primarily large- cap yard operators with established track records in executing engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects - may benefit from any uptick. The rest would have to tread water at least until the end of 2017.

Mr Ang noted that EPC contractors - primarily those with a yard presence - have "already done what they could to lower costs either through restructuring or retrenchments of non-core staff".

He sees a lack of demand for their services as the bigger setback. Adding to the woes of small and mid-cap EPC contractors is excess capacity, partly from overinvestment in the module fabrication sub-segment in the days of high oil prices.

These contractors also face challenges from higher local content requirements imposed by some national oil companies that could restrict participation in subcontract work for new EPC awards.

EPC awards would also take months to multiply into contracting opportunities for supporting services including those for offshore support vessels (OSV).

The OSV segment is still haunted by a supply glut from excessive newbuilding and demand destruction from a slump in offshore drilling and EPC activities. Pareto Securities chief executive David Palmer said: "There is a tsunami of newbuilding (OSVs) completed and ready for delivery that are sitting in the yards."

The key uncertainty, according to Mr Palmer, is that "the exact number of newbuilding OSVs is indeterminate" and that "most industry numbers are understated". He suggested the supply glut - though more prevalent among shipshape OSV assets - has also compromised demand for liftboats, which were once touted as an asset class still above water.

One estimate is that hundreds of OSVs have yet to be delivered from China. M3 Marine's managing director Mike Meade noted that Chinese shipbuilders have tried to link up with active OSV operators to offload the excess vessels (resulting from defaults on shipbuilding contracts). The result could be more vessels competing for work in an already oversupplied OSV market.

One of the world's largest OSV owner-operators, Tidewater, recently breached an interest covenant, sparking speculation that the New York-listed player may file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection if it cannot secure waivers from its lenders and noteholders. Tidewater is headquartered in New Orleans and operates as a private-owned entity in Singapore.

On the situation here, Gibson Dunn & Crutcher LLP partner Robson Lee warned: "Holders of unsecured bonds issued by a company that has become mired in dire financial straits (such as Swiber) will have very little recourse to recover their investments in the event of an insolvent winding up." He noted that in such a situation, there is certainly no chance of any redemption. Others noted that bonds or debts in the O&M sector would have to be restructured (which typically involves either a substantial haircut or conversion to equity) or their repayments deferred. Support from lenders will be crucial.

Regional maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) solutions provider Mencast has, for instance, secured loan and credit facilities of up to S$74.9 million from UOB that will go towards redeeming S$50 million of outstanding bonds due on Sept 12, refinance certain liabilities, and provide for its working capital needs.

In Swiber's case, the affidavit for its judicial management application indicated that it had taken up lending facilities from DBS to repay medium-term notes due in June and July. BT earlier reported major local banks have worked with Swiber as well as Pacific Radiance to extend repayment deadlines for their loans. However, Swiber's subsequent troubles prompted some to ask if those efforts had been adequate in the face of a major O&M meltdown.

Unlike Swiber, some Singapore-listed players may be able to tap their cash-rich anchor shareholders. Malaysian tycoon Yaw Chee Siew, who has bankrolled Otto Marine through the years, set out earlier this year to take the OSV-focused player private. His decision to delist Otto Marine came as depressed O&M stock prices limited the effectiveness of further equity injections.

For O&M players with no cash-rich anchor shareholders to lean on, Mr Palmer extended a glimmer of hope: that the needed cash could eventually enter the system from "some unconventional sources not previously in this sector". But this may "severely dilute existing equity".

He warned that under the current excess capacity conditions (particularly severe in the OSV segment), "we will need to see more 'blood' before more sustainable capital will come in to fund companies".

But for the brave, there could be bargain-hunting opportunities. "Investors . . . have to tolerate extreme volatility and uncertainty in the short term but those who can identify companies that will make it through stand to (reap) fantastic returns," Mr Palmer said.

DBS is one of the principal bankers for almost all the O&M companies in the list.


Latest Splash Chat live Q&A casts a long, dark shadow over offshore ~ 26 Aug 2016

KrisEnergy faces debt covernant stress, bond value plunges ~ 16 Aug 2016


Double boost for Vallianz post-Swiber ~ 15 Aug 2016

Tidewater misses on earnings, may file Chapter 11 ~ 11 Aug 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 30, 2016, 09:17:12 AM
Hollow man or how inattention to industry fundamentals can kill ~ 13 July 2015
Whilst there are many other issues one could debate, this opinion piece is not written to suggest whether Ezion presents as a good buy or not. It comes from the perspective of highlighting to potential investors / fund managers to look at the underlying fundamentals of a business / sector or industry before making an investment decision. One needs to be more robust in their due diligence when looking at opportunities that may arise, particularly in the shipping and service providers to the offshore oil / gas sector. The fundamentals in this market have changed and we see the closing down of profit loopholes that contractors could enjoy over the past few years. As the movie Hollow Man suggests, it is not what you can see that is the problem, it is the invisible that does the killing.

Cautionary tale of research reports ~ 27 Feb 2016

“The crowd always loses because the crowd is always wrong. It is wrong because it behaves normally.” ~ Fred C. Kelly



EZION closed @ S$1.975 on 10 July 2014.


EZION ~ Bearish symmetrical triangle breakout, interim TP S$0.195, next TP S$0.172

EZION closed with an inverted hammer @ S$0.24 (-0.01, -4%) with 11.9m shares done on 25 Aug 2016.

Immediate support @ S$0.22, immediate resistance @ S$0.26.


EZION ~ Racing to the bottom

EZION had a bullish counterattack and traded @ S$0.285 (+0.015, +5.6%) with 18.9m shares done on 3 Aug 2016 at 1255 hrs.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 22, 2016, 06:56:16 AM
Behind every default was once a darling — Swiber ~ 1 Aug 2016


Swiber defaults on interest payments on second series of bonds

By Zeng Xiaolin
East Asia correspondent
19 September 2016

Singapore-based offshore oil and gas player Swiber Holdings, which has applied for judicial management, said on 16 September that it would default on interest payments due to holders of its Series 017 Trust bonds on 18 September.

The CNY450 million (USD 73.14 million) issue, which was issued on 18 September 2014, had an annual yield of 7.75% and would mature on 18 September 2017. The bond is part of a SGD1 billion (USD791.65 million) debt issuance programme. Swiber’s stocks have been suspended from trading since 26 July.

Swiber has also defaulted on interest payments on its Series 001 Trust bonds that were due on 2 August. That issue had an annual yield of 6.5% and would mature in 2018.

Swiber filed for winding up on 27 July. However, on 29 July, after a meeting between the company’s directors and its main financial creditor, Swiber cancelled its winding-up application and filed for receivership. The creditor had indicated it supported Swiber continuing to operate under administration.

The company’s woes were exposed after creditors sent letters of demand for outstanding payments. As of 15 September, such arrears totalled USD231.4 million, while Swiber has total debt of USD1.43 billion as of 31 March.

Many companies in the offshore oil and gas space have been hit hard by the collapse of oil prices, which has caused oil majors to slash capital investment. This has, in turn, hurt demand for rigs and drillships, and subsequently, offshore support vessels and engineering, procurement, construction, and installation services.

DBS Bank, Southeast Asia’s largest bank, has also been hurt by the fallout, with SGD700 million (USD524 million) of exposure to Swiber in the form of loans, bonds, and off-balance sheet items.

DBS said it expects to recover half of this as the exposure is partially secured. DBS said it will also fully provide for the anticipated shortfall, using its surplus general allowances, and that the net allowance charge will be lower at around SGD150 million.

Amid the downturn in the oil and gas and shipping sectors, struggling companies have been asking to reschedule bond payments or swapping debt for equity.

On 15 September, Singapore-listed trust Rickmers Maritime, which is sponsored by Rickmers Group, held an informal meeting with bondholders.

The trust, led by Soren Andersen, has a SGD100 million (USD74.85 million) bond issue maturing in May 2017. The bonds were issued in May 2014 and yielded an interest of 8.45% per annum. During an informal meeting with bondholders on 15 September, the trust’s management said that adverse market conditions have affected its financial performance and it has suffered a wider loss of USD55.58 million for the second quarter of 2016, from a USD15.67 million loss in the second quarter of 2015, as charter rates and vessel utilisation fell amid chronic oversupply.

As of 30 June, Rickmers Maritime had a massive working capital deficit of USD320.7 million, but leverage was manageable, as total unit holders’ funds of USD306.6 million far exceeded long-term debt of USD13.19 million.

Under these conditions, the trust said it is unable to repay USD179.7 million in senior debt due in 2017, and is unable to meet interest and principal repayments of the bond issue concerned.

Rickmers Maritime is therefore offering to exchange the existing principal amount of the bonds for SGD28 million of new shares in order to avoid a total loss on the bonds and to allow continued interest payments under the new share. Any recovery in the stock price would also benefit the bondholders.

Consent from at least 75% of the bondholders is required for the debt-for-equity swap to be approved. Failure to secure the bondholders' agreement could mean liquidation for the trust, as such agreement is a prerequisite for a USD260.2 million refinancing facility to be granted.

It is understood that the proposal did not go down well with the bondholders, and they urged the trust’s management to produce a more reasonable offer. Over 30 bondholders have formed a steering committee and plan to appoint lawyers to negotiate better terms with Rickmers Maritime.

How Singapore’s not-really-rich have been burned by Swiber bonds ~ 20 Sep 2016
When Elaine Tham signed an “accredited investor” form with her bank in Singapore 2 years ago, she took a fateful step toward losing all the money she had set aside for her children’s education. She agreed to invest S$250,000 in the bonds of a small Singapore energy-services company, Swiber Holdings Ltd., which said in August that it won’t be able to repay its bondholders. Elaine Tham is one of many Singaporeans who lost money by investing in Swiber, which sold an unusually high proportion of its bonds to the wealthy clients of banks in Singapore.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on September 22, 2016, 07:12:52 AM

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 06, 2016, 03:28:03 PM
NYC's dirty money files ~ 3 Oct 2016


Authorities say Low headed Good Star Ltd, a company that received a massive $1.03 billion from the fund. So it’s not surprising he was able to drop so much cash on real estate, art and partying in New York. He allegedly moved money between accounts in Singapore, Switzerland and New York “in a manner intended to conceal” the origin of the money.


Switzerland pressures Malaysia over 1MDB 'Ponzi scheme' ~ 5 Oct 2016
In January 2016, 1MDB’s debts ballooned from Rm5 billion to Rm50 billion.

Singapore urged to step up policing of financial crime ~ 27 Sep 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 08, 2016, 06:17:25 AM
Why Hillary Clinton could be in even stronger shape than the polls show ~ 7 Oct 2016


Selected not elected – Rothschilds hold $100,000 a plate dinner fundraiser for guess who ~ 4 Oct 2016
The evidence of politicians for sale to the highest bidder lends credibility to a 2014 study from Princeton University that revealed the U.S. is not a republic or a democracy, but rather an oligarchy. An oligarchy is a form of government in which power resides in the hands of a small number of elites within a society.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 23, 2016, 11:06:00 AM
Trump gains on Clinton, poll shows 'rigged' message resonates ~ 21 Oct 2016


Why Hillary Clinton could be in even stronger shape than the polls show ~ 7 Oct 2016


Selected not elected – Rothschilds hold $100,000 a plate dinner fundraiser for guess who ~ 4 Oct 2016
The evidence of politicians for sale to the highest bidder lends credibility to a 2014 study from Princeton University that revealed the U.S. is not a republic or a democracy, but rather an oligarchy. An oligarchy is a form of government in which power resides in the hands of a small number of elites within a society.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 17, 2016, 11:23:40 AM
Manus Island, Nauru refugees could wait months before being resettled in the US under new deal ~ 15 Nov 2016


Australia's refugee deal may be scuppered by Trump, US expert warns ~ 14 Nov 2016

Trump says he would not admit refugees without community support ~ 7 Nov 2016
Trump said in Minneapolis that people there had already seen the results of "faulty" vetting with Minnesota's community of Somali Muslims.


A decades-long voyage by ex-Vietnamese refugee to reunite with rescuer ~ 24 Oct 2016


Rohingya children in Malaysia, an undocumented life ~ 20 Jun 2016


First-class refugees: Malaysia's two-tier system ~ 27 Dec 2015
Malaysian government extends helping hand to Syrian refugees, as thousands of other refugees struggle in illegal limbo.


The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA): Singapore will not be accepting refugees as it is a small country with limited land ~ 16 May 2015

Why no one wants the Rohingyas ~ 15 May 2015

Malaysia and Thailand turn away hundreds on migrant boats ~ 14 May 2015


40 stranded refugees will die if help doesn't come soon ~ 20 Dec 2012

Malaysia takes in 40 Myanmar shipwreck survivors ~ 18 Dec 2012

Singapore denies entry to ship carrying 40 boat people ~ 15 Dec 2012


Rohingya refugees streaming to Malaysia ~ 9 Nov 2012
People smugglers receive large sums from Myanmar's minority Muslims to make the dangerous trip to Malaysia.


Burma's Rohingya: The human story ~ 23 Jul 2012

Why is the world ignoring Myanmar's Rohingya? ~ 23 Jul 2012


A forgotten past – Vietnamese boat people in Singapore ~ 1 Jul 2011


Singapore: 25 Hawkins Road Refugee Camp ~ Between 1978 and 1996

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 14, 2017, 12:35:13 PM
"I've always preferred mythology to history. History is truth that becomes an illusion. Mythology is an illusion that becomes reality." ~ Jean Cocteau

Another million-dollar loss at Seascape condo

By Feily Sofian
January 14, 2017

As the world celebrated the year-end festive season, a three-bedroom unit at Seascape in Sentosa Cove changed hands at a loss of $1.47 million on Dec 27. It joined the recent spate of unprofitable transactions on the paradise island.

The seller of the Seascape unit purchased the property from the developer at $2,631 psf in 2010 and resold it at $1,955 psf. The loss worked out to 26%, or 4% per annum over almost seven years.

The latest loss, however, paled in comparison to a preceding transaction in the development. Last October, a four-bedroom penthouse in Seascape was sold at an eye-watering loss of $4.65 million. The unit was bought in the secondary market at $2,594 psf in 2011 and resold at just $1,497 psf, 42% below the purchase price. Seascape is an eight-storey seafront project comprising only 151 units. The 99-year leasehold development was completed in 2011.


Around 70%, or 15 out of 21, of resale transactions at Sentosa Cove in 2016 were in the red. The average loss was $1.35 million.

Of the six profitable transactions last year, three were for The Azure. All three units were purchased in 2005 and 2006, at prices averaging $1,157 psf. They were resold in 2016 at an average price of $1,421 psf, or between $2.3 and $4.6 million each.

The second-highest loss in the week of Dec 27 to Jan 3 amounted to $817,000. It accrued to a 1,604 sq ft unit at One Shenton. The seller purchased the unit at $2,069 psf in 2007 and resold it at $1,560 psf on Dec 28. The loss worked out to 25% or 3% per annum over more than nine years.

A total of six of seven resale transactions at One Shenton were unprofitable in 2016, with losses ranging from $53,722 to $1.68 million. The sale price for the loss-making transactions averaged $1,680 psf. The sole profitable transaction was traced to a shoebox unit that was bought at $2,030 psf in 2010 and resold at $2,058 psf, resulting in a modest gain of $16,000 for the seller. One Shenton is a 99-year leasehold project in District 1 that was completed in 2011.

The highest profit in the week of Dec 27 to Jan 3 accrued to a 1,550 sq ft unit at Rivergate, a 545-unit freehold apartment at Robertson Quay, fronting the Singapore River. The property was bought in 2008 at $1,100 psf and resold at $1,935 psf on Dec 28. This resulted in a profit of $1.3 million, or 76%.


How to convert a S$3.2 million property loss into a S$1.5 million gain

18 Jun 2015

When an overseas buyer invests in a Singapore property, he (or she) is converting his home currency into Singapore dollar.   As such, he is taking a currency bet.


As you can see from Quadrant A in the Currency Bet Outcome graph, what the buyer wants to happen is for both the value of his property and the Singapore dollar to increase.  If this happens, jackpot!

First, he makes money on his Singapore property.  Then, he converts his Singapore dollars into his home currency and makes more money from the currency differential.

The worst outcome is Quadrant D.  A drop in property value and a weakening of the Singapore dollar deliver a double whammy.  Not only does he have less Singapore dollars than when he started, but he converts his Singapore dollars into less home currency.

The unknown outcome occurs when property value and the Singapore dollar move in opposite directs to one another.  (See Quadrant C and D.)

Whether the investor comes out ahead or loses depends on which of the two variables had the stronger positive movement.

In order to illustrate, let’s look at a hypothetical transaction that was based loosely on an actual transaction in Sentosa.  (The currency has been changed but the principles of the transaction are reflective of the actual situation.  Also, the illustration doesn’t account for transaction costs, taxes, etc.).

In June 2012, a Japanese buyer exchanges 1.25 billion Japanese Yen (JPY) for $ 20.2 million and buys a house in Sentosa. (Exchange rate: 1 SGD  = 61.96 JPY.)


Almost two years later, during the property market’s downturn, he sells the house at $ 17.0 million.

This results in a loss of $ 3.2 million (i.e., 20.2 minus 17).

He then changes the $17 million into JPY, which gives him the SGD equivalent of 1.37 billion JPY. (Exchange rate:  1SGD = 80.76  JPY.)


His net profit in Japanese Yen is 1.37 billion minus 1.25 billion or 120 million JPY, which is about $1.5 million.

In this case, despite the fact that he sold the house at a loss, he made a profit.

Carry Trade

JPYSGD @ 0.0124 on 14 Jan 2017


SGDJPY @ 79.9970 on 14 Jan 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 14, 2017, 02:00:44 PM
"It’s troubling to see Malaysia again favoring limits on capital over getting under the economy’s hood. If Malaysia goes too far, it risks scaring away foreign investors."

‘Malaysia vulnerable to capital outflow risk’

By Anette Appaduray
January 11, 2017

An analysis by Moody’s Investors Service of the creditworthiness of sovereigns across Asia-Pacific puts Malaysia on the list of countries that are most vulnerable to capital outflows.

“Direct exposure to capital flows is highest when financing needs are large to cover [the] current account or external debt payments. In Asia-Pacific, Mongolia (Caa1 stable), and to a lesser extent, Sri Lanka (B1 negative), Malaysia (A3 stable) and Indonesia (Baa3 stable) are among the most vulnerable,” said Moody’s in a report entitled "Sovereigns — Asia-Pacific: 2017 Outlook — Stable Outlook Balances External, Political Risks Against Economic, Institutional Reforms".

Moody’s noted that for China, its large official reserves provide ample external liquidity, but tighter external financing and potentially increasing capital outflows could hamper the effectiveness of domestic financial policies.

“In addition to external trade and financing pressures, a key driver of sovereign credit trends will be the policy efforts of governments,” it said in a statement yesterday.

Capital inflows to emerging markets could be abruptly tapered due to the downward trend in global growth and increases in US interest rates. But Moody’s stated that the outlook for creditworthiness of sovereigns in Asia-Pacific is stable overall for 2017.

“Rising income levels and strengthening institutions will offer support to several sovereign credit profiles in the region,” it added.

Moody’s said despite robust gross domestic product (GDP) growth, slowing global trade rates and capital outflows may dampen credit profiles of nations that are dependent on external demand and financing.

“Moody's GDP growth forecasts already take into account expectations of slow global trade, which is particularly relevant for export-reliant economies like Hong Kong (Aa1 negative), [South] Korea (Aa2 stable), Singapore (Aaa stable) and Taiwan (Aa3 stable),” it said.

“Credit outcomes in 2017 will be determined by the effectiveness of ongoing reform efforts and evolution of political risks,” Moody’s added.

Moody’s report explains that most of its rated sovereigns in Asia-Pacific carry ratings with stable outlooks, but negative outlooks outnumber positive ones. Of the 24 sovereigns that Moody's rates in Asia-Pacific, there were 18 stable outlooks as of yesterday, four negative and two positive.

“Moody’s further points out that rating actions in 2016 were overwhelmingly negative, with 10 negative and only one positive over the course of the year,” it added.

It also found that in 2016, 38% of rated sovereigns in Asia-Pacific experienced a decline in fiscal strength, while 42% may suffer a higher susceptibility to event risk.

Moody’s said the authorities are formulating policies that range from those that address acute near-term challenges to longer-term improvements in credit profiles, but individual countries’ capacity to implement such policies varies across the region.

“The capacity of governments to implement measures and the effectiveness of policies in achieving respective governments’ objectives will shape the sovereigns’ credit profiles over the coming year,” it said.

Political developments and risks will also worsen negative credit drivers, and hamper credit-supportive factors in the region, as they could interfere with governments’ ability to implement reforms.

But it noted that implementation processes in countries like India (Baa3 positive), Indonesia (Baa3 stable) and the Philippines (Baa2 stable), where reforms are ongoing, would boost medium-term growth.

Growing optimism for the ringgit to strengthen in the second half ~ 7 Jan 2017

Will Malaysia's property market pick up? Where are the catalysts? ~ 31 Dec 2016

Trump tantrum puts Malaysia in spotlight ~ 24 Nov 2016

It’s time the nation’s embattled leader looked in the mirror and examined his role in the ringgit’s recent plunge.


Stronger ringgit by September? An over-optimistic prediction, experts say ~ 7 Jan 2017

BNM’s international reserves at US$94.6b as at Dec 30, 2016 ~ 6 Jan 2017

Hello 2017, it's me, says Weak Ringgit ~  5 Jan 2017

Ringgit stumbles into 2017 ~  3 Jan 2017

Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia sign currency deal amid decline against greenback ~ 24 Dec 2016

Bank Negara spends US$1.9bil defending the ringgit ~ 8 Dec 2016

Bank Negara intervention to support ringgit unnecessary, says AIBC ~ 7 Dec 2016

Battered Malaysian ringgit keeps tumbling: 5 key questions ~ 2 Dec 2016

Bank Negara unable to stem ringgit's plunge against other currencies

By Pauline Ng
1 Dec 2016

Kuala Lumpur - BANK Negara Malaysia's (BNM) intervention in the currency market may have partially checked the ringgit's fall against the US dollar, but it has not halted the beleaguered unit's headlong plunge against other major and regional currencies including the Singapore dollar.

Market economist Suresh Ramanathan suggested "drastic policy moves" are required at this point including the liberalisation of the capital account.

"Allow the currency to be convertible on the capital account. Let the ringgit be traded offshore," he said. "As much as you tell everyone the ringgit is stabilising against the USD, it is weakening against other currencies - and to record levels as well for some."

The local unit crumbled to about 3.1340 to the SGD on Wednesday - a level previously unseen - and was also rapidly declining against other currencies although it continued to hover at around 4.460 to the greenback.

Mr Ramanathan observed that, as the central bank was targeting only USD/MYR and not the other trade- weighted currencies, they had gained tremendously against the ringgit. He did not think the central bank could stem the USD advance in the longer term despite its intervention in the currency market, including prohibiting onshore banks from trading the ringgit in the offshore NDF (non-deliverable forward) market, and asking foreign banks to commit to doing so.

Sunway University Business School economics professor Yeah Kim Leng said that, on a sovereign or country risk basis, Malaysia is seen to be relatively more vulnerable owing to its lower foreign reserves of about US$98.3 billion (S$140 billion) in mid-November. Its external debt-to-GDP ratio is also high - at about 66 per cent compared to Thailand's 32 per cent in 2015.

Consequently, funds have been withdrawing their investments, Prof Yeah said, adding that BNM's recent tightening of the ringgit NDF market "had also contributed to the response" because investors perceive Malaysia to be reverting to capital controls, albeit in a limited way. "Financial markets are always prone to overreaction. The challenge at present is to stabilise sentiment," he said.

Mr Ramanathan said the central bank's focus on the USD/MYR had led the exchange rate to trade in a straight line for the greater part of the week "while other currencies have hit the roof".

"They are hoping the USD will falter over the next few days, and the ringgit can rally or capitalise on it. It's their typical modus operandi," he said, pointing to past interventions "when the ringgit enters a weaker zone".

Although the ringgit has held steadier against the USD in the past few days, it is 6.6 per cent lower against the greenback for the month of November; it is also significantly smaller against the SGD (4 per cent) and CNY (5 per cent), and other major currencies as well.

Negative sentiment has also rubbed off on the equities market, which closed the month 3.2 per cent lower; volume traded was reduced by a fifth.

Mr Ramanathan said BNM appears to be running out of ideas given it has been three weeks since Donald Trump's unexpected US presidential election win - which triggered an initial outflow of funds back to the US on expectations of higher inflation owing to a planned increase in spending on local infrastructure.

Rather than implementing defensive moves and blaming speculators for the current volatility, he said, the central bank should allow the ringgit to trade offshore as it was doing before the Asian financial crisis, since the authorities maintain Malaysia is an open market economy and the currency is fundamentally undervalued.

"What is stopping them from letting the ringgit be traded offshore?" Mr Ramanathan wondered. At the very least, BNM ought to allow convertibility of the ringgit offshore on a limited basis in Singapore, he said.

SGD-MYR ~ May 2015

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 16, 2017, 06:10:28 PM
Is Singapore at risk of becoming a rentier society?

By Lee Su Shyan
11 Jan 2017

In this time of economic transition, there is a need to guard against a tilt towards moneymaking from investments at the expense of productive work.

A widely held view is that Singaporeans have a fixation with property, be it on an individual level or at a corporate level. Despite various property cooling measures, a condo launch in a good location - not priced cheaply, but affordably - can yield a respectable response. Several tycoons have made it big through the rise of property assets, whether through Far East Organization, CDL and Hong Leong or even OCBC Bank. Several Temasek-linked companies have also performed well from property, including CapitaLand, Keppel Corp and Mapletree.

Yet another prevailing view is that high rents are killing the fledgling entrepreneur or the regular small and medium-sized enterprise. This goes hand in hand with the view that the local retail industry is in the doldrums because only large cookie-cutter chains can afford the rents that the top malls charge while shops full of character are squeezed out.

Fact or fiction, myth or reality, these views may be one reason why a recent commentary by Professor Tommy Koh in this newspaper on the Singapore economy's structural issues resonated with many readers. He touched on the high costs in Singapore and said some friends had decided to close their businesses because of escalating rentals. One friend even warned that Singapore was in danger of becoming a rentier society, he said.

Just what is a rentier society, and what are the risks to Singapore if it becomes one?

Of rent and rentiers

In economics, a ''rent'' is money you make because you control something scarce and desirable, whether it's an oilfield or a monopolistic position in a market. There is a bit of ''rent'' in nearly every transaction, the US economics journalist Adam Davidson once explained in a New York Times article.

"When you pay rent on an apartment, some of the money is for the value the landlord has added to the property, say, by upgrading the kitchen. But much of the money your landlord makes comes from the fact that he or she controls property in a desirable location," he wrote.

The term rentier is used to refer to someone who lives off savings or inherited wealth, rather than through productive work. Every society has its share of rentier activity, with people and companies making money off investments.

Indeed, speaking at a Singapore Institute of International Affairs event in late 2014, Mr David Pilling, then Asia editor for The Financial Times, said that going forward, he expected Singapore to put more focus on investment through companies like Temasek Holdings.

"To some extent, I think part of the Singapore economy will become what you might call a 'rentier economy'. Singapore is very wealthy, it has a lot of savings, it also has a lot of know-how. So one of the ways Singapore can make money is by placing bets on other companies, other countries, other technologies. Just like how a big pharmaceutical company, for example, has all its R&D in-house and it takes stakes in and might even buy technology companies," he said.

"This is a process of hedging, it is a processing of turning savings into a stream of income. This is already a part of what Singapore does and it would be my guess that they will continue to do it and it will become more important," he added.

So what then was Prof Koh warning against when he used the phrase "rentier society" and why did it resonate with many? A plausible explanation is that Prof Koh and many other Singaporeans are worried that a disproportionate share of the fruits of economic growth accrue to rentier individuals or companies, at the expense of people and small businesses doing productive work.

High rents

A couple of years ago, the Ministry of Trade and Industry presented a paper on the link between Reits and high rents. What it found was that rents were generally higher at Reit malls than single-owner malls and that rents had indeed risen faster at these malls. But the academics found that this was due to the characteristics of the mall - better location, for example - and the rise in rents was not per se caused by the Reit's acquisition.

It would be foolhardy for a Reit to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. As the economy slows, rents will have to reflect the reality on the ground. A check showed that CapitaLand Mall Trust's (CMT's) rental reversion for the first nine months of last year was 1.3 per cent. CMT counts Junction 8, Bugis Junction and Tampines Mall among its portfolio properties. Rental reversion refers to the change in current rental rates compared with the rates inked previously. At 1.3 per cent, this means that rents increased by about 0.4 per cent per year for a typical three-year lease, a figure that hardly resembles a galloping increase.

Reit managers would also resent the accusation that they just sit back and collect rents. With so many malls having sprung up, they have to invest to enhance the mall, to keep themselves in the game.

CMT's IMM Building in Jurong, for example, offers a centralised dishwashing service so that tenants do not have to bother about hiring their own dishwashing staff. CMT has also introduced better security technology at some of its malls that maintains the level of security but reduces the number of security guards needed.

Industrial rents are on a downward trend. A report by property consultancy Savills on the third quarter of last year saw average prime monthly rent for the factory and warehouse sector slipping 6.3 per cent from the second to third quarter to $1.50 psf.

Sale values also declined. Savills said prices for upper-storey factory and warehouse units on 60-year leases fell about 4.7 per cent from the second to the third quarter while values for similar units with 30-year leases fell 2.1 per cent over the same period.

Still, since Singapore is a global city, rents and property values are high. Singapore comes in at No. 4 in prime logistic rents in a report by property consultancy CBRE last year, although growth has slowed somewhat. In terms of prime occupancy costs, Singapore was ranked No. 20 in another CBRE report.

It may be true to say that business rents are not skyrocketing. But they remain a bugbear among SMEs.

The latest annual survey by the Singapore Business Federation (SBF) found that 68 per cent of respondents cited operation costs (excluding labour costs) as the biggest challenge of operating in Singapore, while 66 per cent cited manpower issues and 55 per cent said it was business competition.

SBF CEO Ho Meng Kit said: "In the midst of the tepid economic climate, rent continues to be an issue for local companies as it forms a large part of operation costs (excluding labour costs) of most traditional offline businesses."

Times are changing

Property looms large over the economy and Singapore psyche.

Many investors have preferred to put their money in something tangible because they believe property can be a store of value. Investors have long memories of racking up losses when the stock markets tanked.

So far, the property market has delivered on many occasions, for both individual investors and Singapore businesses. A person who bought a property in 1990 is undoubtedly sitting on a large gain, even though it may be smaller than at the market's peak.

As the Singapore and Asean economies mature, a certain level of wealth has been attained. The growth of private banks and wealth management outfits testify to an increasing number of second- and third-generation wealthy individuals who will be hoping to preserve and grow their wealth.

The story of Singapore and rent-seeking behaviour has certainly become more nuanced.

An early precursor was the Asian financial crisis, when companies and individuals lost money, which gave the first inkling that property might not be a safe bet.

Fire sales may still be few and far between, but it is more common now to see prime luxury properties selling at up to 20 per cent off their previous asking price (or even their previous transacted price).

However, it is not that many people still aspire to be landlords today. And even if they do, most realise that they need to go into it with their eyes open, to choose properties in a desirable location and maintain them well. Tenants have to be courted to sign the lease and incentives have to be thrown in to get them to renew.

While previously many professionals became property agents, their numbers have now shrunk.

Rent-seeking behaviour does not refer only to property owners. It can also refer to assets such as stocks and shares. As the financial service sector grew in London, for example, it came in for criticism for adding little productive growth to the economy compared to manufacturing, which shrank.

And certainly the involvement of the public sector has curbed any excesses of rent-seeking behaviour, according to Professor Sarah Cheah from the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School. She points to how the Government can achieve a more purposeful way of organising economic activities to promote more productive use of resources.

A good example is the development of a 200ha zone to create One North to host clusters of world-class research facilities, innovation agencies, start-ups, SMEs and multinational companies. Through these clusters, public and private organisations can operate in a more synergistic and cost-effective manner to promote innovative activities.

However, Prof Cheah notes that innovation can also happen in unfavourable circumstances. High rents, for example, could lead to a development of new business models such as e-commerce.

Singapore has prospered from the growth of the economy and the corresponding growth of its property market. Many have seen the value of their HDB homes rise, and a few have reaped the windfall from en-bloc exercises. Others have seen the value of their office buildings soar.

As the Singapore economy seeks out new paths to grow, it is timely to have a debate on whether the focus on various resources is appropriate and whether they are being put to the best use.

The Terminal 2004 [F.U.L.L] Movie - Tom Hanks, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chi McBride
The Terminal is a 2004 American comedy-drama film directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Tom Hanks and Catherine Zeta-Jones. It is about a man who becomes trapped in New York's John F. Kennedy Airport terminal when he is denied entry into the United States and at the same time cannot return to his native country due to a military coup. The film is partially inspired by the 18-year stay of Mehran Karimi Nasseri in Terminal 1 of Charles de Gaulle International Airport, Paris, France, from 1988 to 2006.

Woman lives in Changi airport for 8 years ~ 10 Jan 2017

有家却不住 妇女睡新加坡机场长达8年





































Singapore REITs record highest yields amongst developed markets; Consumer confidence hits seven-year low ~ 20 Oct 2016


Rental kill retail business

By John Seah
1 Jul 2016

I read with regret that 77th Street is closing by end July 2016, as reported by CNA.


There is something very wrong with the business environment that is killing the shopping paradise Singapore.

It also kills any thought of becoming a retail entrepreneur in Singapore.

However, I must say that this is also happening everywhere else in the world like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Europe etc...

The introduction of REIT's concept makes it even worse. The initial idea was to have REITs gather funds to upgrade and maintain these  estates and in return, the investors get monetary returns yearly.  However, the yearly increase in profit expectations has caused the retail sector rental to increase beyond any reasoning.

According to 77th Street Founder Elim Chew, the rental has gone from $9psf to $25psf in the last 20 years.  That is an increase of 300 percent.

Did any business in Singapore increase their profit by 300 percent during the last 20 years with the exception of the property company and Banks?


The only thing we see is increased prices for food, clothing, education, transport and everything else.

This increase is due to property and rental prices, take up a large percentage of businesses.   With higher rental cost,  the retail food and goods will have to be price higher, resulting in consumers(workers) asking for a higher salary as they now pay more for everything.

It is just a vicious cycle. 

There have  been arguments that salary rise is the cause of  business costs, but I beg to differ.

For example, The cost of a 3 room flat 30 years ago was SGD$30K.  now it is SGD$300K to SGD$400K depending on area and level.  HDB says it is due to better quality material, design and as income rises, we expect better.

I do agree, but does the housing quality increase by 300 times? We now get a smaller unit and higher price!

Do we now earn 300 percent more compared with 30 years ago?

It's the same for commercial property .

This is primary due to land cost and in turn, causing the property bubble.

The rise of online retail is going (actually already started)  to hurt retail business badly and it is only going to get worse.

Why is JTC still maintaining high rental prices when manufacturing sectors have shrunk  and a lot of JTC flatted factory remains empty?

If it is truly supply and demand, then these units should be lowering their prices since there are no takers!

We really need to look at controlling commercial property prices and rental if we still want to attract any foreigners to come and shop in Singapore.  How? I really don't know!
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 04, 2017, 11:28:00 AM
I had no hand in BMF scandal, says Mahathir ~ 26 Jan 2017
Former prime minister says CIA document does not blame him.

BMF scandal ‘extended’ into Malaysian ex-PM Mahathir’s govt – CIA filesr ~ 26 Jan 2017
Recently declassified documents by America’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) said the Malaysian government under longest-ruling Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad had a hand in the largest financial scandal the country had seen during the 1980s.


Mahathir’s disastrous financial speculation ~ 5 Mar 2012
A convoluted story that began as long ago as the 1980s when Malaysia’s central bank, Bank Negara Malaysia, at the urging of then-Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, began speculating aggressively in global foreign exchange markets, at one time running up exposure rumored to be in the region of RM270 billion — 3 times the country’s gross domestic product and more than 5 times its foreign reserves at the time.

Eventually, the Finance Ministry had to recapitalize the central bank, almost unheard of for any government anywhere. It is reliably estimated that Bank Negara lost as much as US$30 billion in this and other disastrous currency trades, costing the head of the central bank and his currency trader deputy their jobs.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on March 18, 2017, 06:55:04 PM
Out of work and out of luck in search for full-time jobs

By Joanna Seow
March 18, 2017

Richard is aged 48, single and holds a master's degree in financial management.

Four years ago, the former senior banker lost his $14,000-a -month job. Life has been a long struggle since.

He found work in two small information technology companies. But when the businesses hit a rough patch, he was retrenched.

In between his search for full- time work, he did odd jobs such as washing dishes in a restaurant and distributing flyers.

Flitting from one temporary job to another is typical of many in the growing pool of out-of-work professionals, managers, executives and technicians (PMETs), who are taking longer to find permanent jobs.

Manpower Ministry figures released this week show that, on average, only 47.9 per cent of residents last year got a job within six months of being laid off - the first time in at least seven years that the proportion fell below 50 per cent.

The situation is worse for PMETs and degree holders, whose re-entry rates are 43.9 per cent and 42.5 per cent, respectively.

In addition, 1 per cent of degree holders in the resident labour force were jobless for at least 25 weeks, compared with the overall average of 0.8 per cent.

One of Richard's biggest obstacles is convincing employers that he is willing to work for as little as $3,000 a month, or to take a chance with him despite his lack of experience.

At one job fair, he applied for a caregiver role but was told it required related experience.

"I am willing to adapt, but I feel employers are not willing to adapt. They keep wanting people with the right experience," he said.

Experts say one of the biggest dilemmas facing jobless PMETs is whether to take the first job that comes along even if it is less than ideal, or to wait for a better one.

"Once they fall off a career track, it may be hard to get back on because, if the industry picks up again, employers may see jobs like driving Uber or selling property as irrelevant experience," said Singapore University of Social Sciences labour economist Walter Theseira.

NeXT Career Consulting Group managing director Paul Heng said PMETs need to be alert to technological changes and upgrade their skills in time.

Citing the insurance industry, he noted that technology has made it easier to buy products online instead of through agents.

National Trades Union Congress U PME Centre consultant Loh Peizhen advised people who are unemployed for long periods to keep their skills relevant and to spend time networking.

"Consider doing short-term project work and reconnect with old networks and form new networks," she said.

Jobless graduates highest since 2004 ~ 16 Mar 2017
The job market last year was the bleakest in years, especially for degree holders, according to employment statistics released by the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) yesterday.


Just how many of the additional 11,200 local workers are Singaporeans?

By Leong Sze Hian
March 16, 2017

I refer to the article “Two-track labour market emerging”.

It states that “Track one: Local unemployment rose last year. There were more local workers – Singaporeans and permanent residents – who want to work but could not find work.

Employment change last year – 11,200 ‘local’ jobs

But even as unemployment rose, so did employment. Employers added 11,200 more local workers to their payrolls last year.”

How many ‘local’ jobs to S’poreans – 30,000 new PRs and 20,000 new citizens granted?

With an average of about 30,000 new permanent residents (PRs) and 20,000 new citizens granted per year, in the last decade or so – how many of the 11,200 locals’ employment change went to Singaporeans?

How many of the new PRs and new citizens granted last year were working – and thus re-classified as “local” workers in the workforce?

No more non-seasonally adjusted unemployment data?

As to “Last year’s 3 per cent resident unemployment rate is the highest since 2010, when Singapore was hit by the global financial crisis” – why is it that the labour market report no longer contains the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for citizens and residents, and the number of unemployed citizens and residents?

4.1% unemployment rate, 92,300 unemployed S’poreans in June 2016?

Since the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for citizens was 4.1 per cent in June last year and the number of unemployed citizens was 92,300, compared to the average annual unemployment rate for citizens of 3.1 per cent and 67,300 unemployed citizens in December last year – you can see that there may be a very big difference between the non-seasonally adjusted (4,1%, 92,300 in June) and the average annual data (3.1%, 67,300 in December).

Now only recently newly invented “average annual unemployment” data?

Why is it that the narrative in the labour market report and media reports now only focus on the average annual unemployment rate which I understand was until recently – never used to report labour data in the past?

Data so bad that become “unpublishable”?

Is it remotely possible that perhaps the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for citizens and the number of unemployed citizens, may have gotten worse with the worsening economic downturn – such that these statistics may have become “unpublishable”?

No breakdown for Long-Term Unemployed?

Since the unemployed data can be broken down into citizens and residents - why can’t the Long-term Unemployed (17,000 residents) be similarly broken down too?


Two-track labour market emerging

By Toh Yong Chuan
March 16, 2017

The latest official figures released yesterday paint a gloomy picture and reflect a worrying situation: The emergence of a two-track labour market.

On one track are the jobless who face an uphill task in finding work. On the other track are people with jobs that give them a steady rise in income.

The growing divide between these two groups is becoming noticeable, and gives cause for concern.

Track one: Local unemployment rose last year. There were more local workers - Singaporeans and permanent residents - who want to work but could not find work. Last year's 3 per cent resident unemployment rate is the highest since 2010, when Singapore was hit by the global financial crisis.

Also, there were fewer jobs for the bigger pool of unemployed. For every 100 unemployed last December, there were only 77 vacancies, down from 91 three months earlier. This job vacancy ratio of 0.77 is the lowest since September 2009, when the global financial crisis resulted in a ratio of 0.54, meaning every 100 jobless were chasing 54 jobs.

Put both together - higher unemployment and fewer jobs - and it shows out-of-work locals are taking longer to return to the job market.

For every 100 jobless locals last year, 26 had no job for 25 weeks or more, up from 21 in 2015.

Worse, the proportion of these long-term unemployed rose last year to the highest since 2004. The hardest hit were degree holders and those aged 50 and older.

The Ministry of Manpower (MOM) has this assessment: "The labour market weakened in 2016, reflecting subdued conditions in several segments of the economy." On the outlook for this year, MOM "expects labour demand to remain modest".

The assessment does not mask the starkness of the bad news for those out of work. This is a bad time to be without a job.

Track two: Those on the payroll of employers fared well last year.

The median monthly income of Singaporeans holding full-time jobs rose 0.7 per cent from $3,798 in 2015 to $3,823. After adjusting for the lower costs of living last year, the rise is steeper, at 1.3 per cent.

Workers were also more productive last year. Labour productivity inched up by about 1 per cent, reversing declines in 2014 and 2015.

But even as unemployment rose, so did employment. Employers added 11,200 more local workers to their payrolls last year.

This may seem contradictory at first glance, but what happened was that the growth in the number of jobs could not keep up with the growth in the workforce. So even as more local workers found jobs, even more could not find work.

This gives a hint on what is needed to fix the problem of the tepid labour market - job creation.

It is the key solution - and the only solution.

Those with jobs are faring well. They earn more and are more productive. The same cannot be said for the unemployed.

But there will always be people with and without work, regardless of the state of the economy. This is also the reason economists regard full employment as the state where all eligible people who want to work can find work at prevailing wage rates. Full employment does not mean zero unemployment.

But what would be most worrying is when the lives of employed workers improve while the jobless sink into debt and depression. This is the "jobs divide", and there are signs of it happening here.

Government measures, however, are in place to prevent it from taking root. This month, MOM announced measures to help the long-term unemployed and mature workers. These include more subsidies for training, job trials and more salary support for employers who hire them.

There are also moves to help jobless workers switch careers. The Ministry of Health last week said it would spend $24 million to help mid-career workers switch and fill the 9,000 jobs being created in the public healthcare and community care sectors in the next three years.

These moves will not solve the problems of unemployed workers overnight, or even in the near term. But they give them a better shot at going back to work and riding out the economic uncertainties.

They also ensure the "jobs divide" does not add to pressures that can divide society.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on March 20, 2017, 07:20:40 AM
Ezra files for U.S. bankruptcy as marine debt crunch spreads ~ 19 Mar 2017
DBS Group Holdings Ltd.’s loan exposure to Ezra and related companies is estimated at S$637 million, according to a CIMB report dated Feb. 2. Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. has S$300 million and United Overseas Bank Ltd. has S$166 million, assuming the debt of each company in the Ezra group is equally split among its principal bankers.

Ezra flags ‘immediate going concern issue’ on $900m exposure as guarantor to EMAS Chiyoda Subsea ~ 3 Mar 2017

EMAS Chiyoda Subsea files for bankruptcy ~ 1 Mar 2017

Ezra shares touch record low as debt concerns mount  ~ 7 Feb 2017

Ezra Holdings told by Forland to pay up or be wound up ~ 7 Feb 2017

Wrestling with life support in Singapore ~ 5 Feb 2017
While the legal system is well-versed in the challenges of debt defaults, creditors are new to the game. In their enthusiasm to get a result, bondholders and banks are pushing companies into liquidation, the worst outcome for all stakeholders.

Ezra liquidation to hit DBS the hardest

3 Feb 2017

The bank's exposure to the beleaguered group is around $637m.

As Ezra is foreseen to face liquidation, CIMB expects DBS to be hit the hardest, as the bank's exposure to the group is estimated to be $637m.

Ezra has called for a trading halt at the start of the month pending the release of an announcement. CIMB said this could be related to the results of its discussions with lenders and other stakeholders regarding its financial position, which could result in the group, its JV or subsidiaries’ liquidation in the worst case scenario.

"As of 31 Aug 2016, the group had US$989m of term loans and bills payable to banks, including US$568m from 75.46%-owned EMAS Offshore Limited and US$150m from 60.9%-owned Triyards Holdings Limited," CIMB explained.

The firm pointed out that DBS has the largest exposure to the Ezra group of companies at $637m, followed by OCBC at $300m and UOB at $166m. DBS's exposure is due to its lending to EMAS Chiyoda Subsea, given that it was the co-lead arranger for the loan facility for EMAS Chiyoda’s main vessel, the Lewek Constellation.

"Should the entire Ezra group go into liquidation, the banks will have to recognise their exposures as NPLs and make adequate provisions for the unrecoverable amounts," CIMB stated.

It furthered, "Based on 40-80% write-down in book value of fixed assets across the group, we estimate DBS will have to make specific provisions (SPs) of 8-16bp, OCBC: 9-12bp and UOB: 6-7bp. This assumes no SPs have been taken yet and will impact DBS’s FY17F net profit by 6-12%, OCBC: 5-8%, and UOB: 4-5%."

EMAS Offshore terminates with Perisai Petroleum Teknologi over SJR marine put option ~ 9 Dec 2016

SGX-listed Ezra Holdings may relook investments in Malaysia’s Perisai Petroleum ~ 21 Oct 2016

Ezra's Lee family puts Sentosa bungalow up for sale

The price tag is said to be S$26m, and follows sale of a GCB by family last October

By Kalpana Rashiwalakalpana and Anita Gabriel
March 3, 2016

Singapore - EZRA Holdings' Lee family has put their waterway-fronting Sentosa Cove bungalow on the block, months after they sold a Good Class Bungalow (GCB) along Windsor Park Road last October for a cool S$22 million.

The Business Times understands that the exclusive two-storey five-bedroom property in the South Cove precinct was put on the market after the Chinese New Year festivities. It comes with a price tag of S$26 million, or S$2,258 per square foot on land area, which industry watchers deem "reasonable".

The property is held by Lee Kian Soo, Ezra's founder and chairman and father of Lionel Lee, the offshore marine firm's chief executive and managing director.

Based on a corporate profile search, the Sentosa Cove property is listed as Mr Lionel Lee's address.

The property, which boasts a private berth, has a total floor area of 12,400 sq ft and a land area of 11,515 sq ft. The bungalow is on a site with a balance lease term of about 91 years.

The most recent transaction of a villa on Sentosa Cove was in the fourth quarter of last year, when a bungalow along Lakeshore View fronting Serapong Golf Course sold for S$23.8 million or S$2,775 psf. This was the highest price (on psf of land) fetched by a bungalow in the waterfront housing district in more than two years.

In October last year, Mr Lionel Lee and his mother Goh Gaik Choo are said to have sold their Balinese-style GCB located off Upper Thomson Road for S$21.8 million; the price translated to $1,070 psf on the freehold land area of 20,383 sq ft. Completed in 2006, the house has two storeys, a basement carpark and a roof terrace for functions.

These properties are not the only assets that have been shuffled or sold by the family, particularly by Mr Lionel Lee, in recent months.

Last month, the 42-year-old unloaded 20 million shares in Catalist-listed Select Group for S$7.1 million to his mother Ms Goh, cutting his stake from 23 per cent to some 9 per cent in the food caterer.

In late January, he forked out S$60,200 to scoop up one million Ezra shares, barely two weeks after a forced sale of 11.5 million Ezra shares which were held by his private vehicle.

The forced sale of S$913,341 worth of Ezra shares on Jan 12 was triggered by the sharp fall in the counter which had caused covenants of a banking facility to be breached. It was reported that the shares were pledged for a loan facility for a company unrelated to Ezra.

Despite its recent pick-up, Ezra's stock price has suffered a hammering, having lost over 20 per cent of its value this year - it's down over 75 per cent from a year ago - amid a slumping oil and gas market with * expecting more pain ahead before things look up.

The oil rout - there have been hopeful intervals of higher prices - has led to spending cuts, layoffs and less contracts to dish out, all of which have hit industry players hard. The Lees' flagship firm Ezra and its other listed subsidiaries have not been spared.

The gloomy backdrop has led to a complete turnabout in the company's fortunes with Ezra reporting its first ever quarterly loss of US$55 million over the quarter ended Nov 2015.

Ezra's other divisions, subsea services provider EMAS offshore suffered a similar fate over the period while its fabrication arm Triyards held up relatively better although profits dived 25 per cent largely owing to the absence of a one-off gain reported a year back.

The company has also seen a string of board and management changes over the past year.

The elder Mr Lee, a corporate veteran, assumed the post of Ezra chairman - again - in February after Koh Poh Tiong stepped down from the position he held for three years; Mr Lee, the founding chairman had earlier held this position till late 2012.

In late January, its chief financial officer Eugene Cheng stepped down citing "personal and family reasons" and in place, Triyards chief executive Chan Eng Yew was appointed interim CFO - he holds both positions concurrently.

Did Ezra Holdings Ltd just bail out EMAS Offshore Ltd from trouble?

By Stanley Lim Peir Shenq
December 17, 2015

EMAS Offshore Ltd (SGX: UQ4) announced on 16 December 2015 that it will be selling off its 12.13% stake in Bursa-listed Perisai Petroleum Teknologi Berhad (KLSE:0047.KL), an upstream oil & gas service provider.

Due to the falling price of oil, Perisai Petroleum has been hammered badly in the stock market over the past year – its share price has fallen from a peak of RM0.725 per share in February to a level of RM0.28 just prior to the aforementioned sale announcement.

EMAS Offshore  is not in a very healthy state itself as it is looking to sell its investment to help repair its balance sheet. So, who is buying EMAS Offshore’s Perisai Petroleum shares?

Unsurprisingly, it is Ezra Holdings Limited  (SGX: 5DN), the parent company of EMAS Offshore through its 75.25% stake, that has come to the rescue. Ezra Holdings has agreed to pay US$56 million for EMAS Offshore’s 12.13% stake in Perisai Petroleum, which is a 500% premium from the market value of the shares. Is this a bailout of EMAS Offshore by Ezra Holdings?

Looks like it

EMAS Offshore is currently sitting in a dangerous position. Its gross margin has fallen to negative territory in its latest quarter and it has a net debt to equity ratio of 127% as at 31 August 2015. The company also has more than US$200 million in short-term debt due soon to worry about.

At Perisai Petroleum’s current market value, EMAS Offshore’s stake is only worth about US$11 million. And yet, Ezra Holdings’ is offering such a high premium for the deal, as mentioned earlier.  According to EMAS Offshore’s announcement, “The price has been determined based on the cost of EMAS’ investment at inception. The purpose of this transaction is to consolidate the interest in Perisai in a single entity at Ezra level.”

That reasoning does not make any sense to me. Even if EMAS Offshore had made an investment at a much higher cost, the company should suffer the losses if it has made a bad bet. Why should Ezra Holdings’ shareholders pay for the mistakes that EMAS Offshore have committed?

It’s worth bearing in mind that Ezra Holdings’ balance sheet is not looking too good as well. The company had a net debt to equity ratio of 99% as at 31 August 2015. In my view, by buying an asset at an inflated price in the hopes of saving its listed subsidiary, Ezra Holdings’ management is essentially transferring risk from EMAS Offshore directly onto itself.

For me, this deal shows much about how the management of Ezra Holdings treats the firm’s minority investors. The management of Ezra Holdings is disregarding the interest of its minority shareholders and publically bailing out its listed subsidiary and their shareholders. In turn, it would be Ezra Holdings’ shareholders who would be the ones left holding the bag.

The deal is not completed yet as EMAS Offshore has until 31 December 2016 to sell its stake in Perisai Petroleum to Ezra Holdings.

But in any case, the deal raises a question: After this, would Ezra Holdings’ minority shareholders be willing to step up and save the firm if it has difficulties repaying over US$700 million in debt that are due, or can be recalled at any time, within the 12 month period from 31 August 2015 to 31 August 2016?

I’m not a shareholder. But if I am, my response to the question above would be: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Ezra founders resolve S$208 million ($164 million) divorce asset fight ~ 23 Sep 2014
Lionel owned about 19% of Ezra, according to the company’s annual report. Lee, who stepped down as chairman at the end of 2012 and was paid about S$40,000 a month in 2009, had a 1.5% stake, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Goh earned about S$10,000 a month before she resigned in December 2008.

In technical analysis, a stock that has made a new low is one that must be treated with caution and to be avoided buying for longterm investment.

Perisai ~  断头铡刀

Perisai gapped down with a hammer and traded @ RM0.155 (-0.02, -11.43%) with 11.9m shares done on 29 Aug 2016 at 1050 hrs.


Perisai closed with an inverted hammer @ RM0.175 (-0.01, -5.4%) with 8.09m shares done on 26 Aug 2016.


Perisai sounds out bondholders on potential recovery rate ~ 26 Aug 2016
Holders of Perisai's S$125m ($92.3m) 6.875 % bonds due Oct 3 have been warned they may recover only half of their investments.

Malaysia's Perisai gets 6 months charter extension for FPSO Perisai Kamelia ~ 22 Aug 2016

Analysts positive on O&G downstream segment ~ 13 Feb 2016

Kenanga Research retains Underperform for Perisai~ 3 Mar 2015
Perisai is 23.4%-owned by Ezra Holdings Limited (Ezra) through its subsidiaries
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on April 05, 2017, 09:04:42 AM

 2270点阅   2017年4月04日
(紐約4日訊) 儘管特朗普政府的政策不確定性很高,但今年首季美股卻創下近十年來最低波動;高盛對此警告,市場低估了其中的風險。




報導指出,其實上個月,VIX曾經反映了美股的罕見震盪。3月中,市場擔憂醫保法案能否順利通過,美股三大指數當天經歷了今年以來最大單日跌幅,並在五個月以來首次下跌超過1 %。


當周道指累計下跌1.5%,標普500指數累跌1.2%,納指累跌1.2%,均創2017年最大單週跌幅。 VIX衝高至去年6月英國公投退歐以來最高點。






Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on April 05, 2017, 10:22:31 AM

157点看 2017年4月5日








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相关课题: 叶伦美国美联储
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on April 06, 2017, 08:36:19 AM

Fed officials say the stock market may be overvalued and history shows they are often right
John Melloy   | @johnmelloy
4 Hours Ago
 Santoli: Is the Fed trying to send a signal?   Santoli: Is the Fed trying to send a signal? 
4 Hours Ago | 04:11
Traders tend to scoff when a policymaker plays investor, often referencing when then-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan made a very early "irrational exuberance" call in December 1996, more than three years before the top of the dot-com bull market.

That skepticism was voiced again Wednesday when the Fed released its meeting minutes from March which read: "Broad U.S. equity price indexes increased over the intermeeting period, and some measures of valuations, such as price-to-earnings ratios, rose further above historical norms. ... Some participants viewed equity prices as quite high relative to standard valuation measures."

But traders shouldn't be so quick to dismiss these comments from Fed officials. History shows when worries about valuation appear in these official minutes, stocks often struggle in the following year.

We found six mentions of an overvalued stock market in the minutes by searching the Fed's website for the word "valuation" going back to 1996. According to Kensho, here's the performance of the major market averages one year after the meeting when such a mention took place.

What's interesting is that these mentions didn't always occur at the end of bull markets. The officials' discussion of an overvalued stock market often came before long pauses during bull markets when equity valuations were able to come back in line because of a period of consolidation.

So this doesn't mean the end of the bull is near, but it could be another reason to believe we're in for a long period of sideways trading until earnings can catch up.

Here are the specific mentions of high "valuation" in the minutes, according to the Fed's website, along with the S&P 500's subsequent return from the meeting when that mention was made.

Meeting: April 28-29 — 2015 S&P 500 return 1-year later: -1.97%

"However, some indicators suggested that valuations remained stretched for some asset classes. An estimate of the expected real return on equities moved down, reflecting an increase in stock prices and downward revisions to forecasts of corporate earnings, and corporate bond spreads declined somewhat."

Sept. 16-17, 2014 — S&P 500 return 1-year later: -0.57%

"Some financial developments that could undermine financial stability over time were noted, including a deterioration in leveraged lending standards, stretched stock market valuations, and compressed risk spreads."

Jan. 27-28, 2004 — S&P 500 return 1-year later: +3.8%

"A number of members commented that expectations of sustained policy accommodation appeared to have contributed to valuations in financial markets that left little room for downside risks, and the change in wording might prompt those markets to adjust more appropriately to changing economic circumstances in the future."

Dec. 11, 2001 — S&P 500 return 1-year later: -20.39%

"Among those risks, members cited the apparently reduced prospects for additional fiscal stimulus legislation, the vulnerability of current stock market valuations should forecasts of a robust rebound in earnings fail to materialize, the possibility of further terrorist incidents, and especially the potentially adverse effect on consumer confidence and spending of additional deterioration in labor market conditions."

March 21, 2000 — S&P 500 return 1-year later: -24.88%

"The divergence, at least until recently, in the stock market between the valuations of high-tech firms and those of more traditional, established firms was inducing a redirection of investment funds to business activities that were perceived to be more productive. While the associated capital investments undoubtedly had contributed to the acceleration in productivity, some members expressed concern that the historically elevated valuations of many high-tech stocks were subject to a sizable market adjustment at some point. That risk was underscored by the increased volatility of the stock market."

Dec. 17, 1996 — S&P 500 return 1-year later: 32.99%

"The rise over recent years had been extraordinary and had brought market valuations to fairly high levels relative to earnings and dividends. In these circumstances, the members recognized the need to monitor with special care price movements in the stock market and asset markets more generally for their implications for consumer and other spending."

Disclosure: NBCUniversal, parent of CNBC, is a minority investor in Kensho.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 07, 2017, 05:00:40 PM
Is the Hang Seng Index’s blue dye a blessing or a curse?

Research by the Post shows that 12 of the 15 stocks that were added to the Hang Seng Index fell in the three months after their inclusion, and 60 per cent of them have not recovered.

By Laura He
4 April, 2017

Being chosen as a Hang Seng Index (HSI) component stock, or being “dyed blue” as the local saying goes, might reasonably be considered a blessing for the share price of the chosen one, because passively managed funds that track the blue chip index have to add the stock to their holdings.

The data shows quite the opposite. An analysis of stock performance over the past seven years shows that 12 of the 15 “dyed blue” stocks declined three months after joining the Hang Seng index, while 60 per cent still haven’t recovered to this day.

“Many blue chips soared to excessively high levels before joining the index as speculators bought the stocks with the hope of quickly selling them to index-tracking funds,” said Ben Kwong Man-bun, head of research and executive director at KGI Securities.

Realignment of the weightings, or “rebalancing” by index funds, usually takes place one day prior to the implementation of an index reshuffle.

When the speculative bubble eventually bursts, it usually takes a long time for the stock to recover.

“The excessively high share prices have discounted all the existing good news about the company. So after the bubble bursts, stocks may pull back sharply or ‘go asleep’ for a long time, until investors find new reasons to speculate,” Kwong said.

Ken Wong, Asia equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments, said inclusion in the blue chip index might seem like a great accomplishment. “[But] the biggest problem is that index inclusion just creates a temporary positive sentiment for stocks.

“Some investors tend to speculate on these index inclusion stocks for short term gains,” he said. “People usually buy on rumours and sell on fact.”

Looking at the 15 blue chips that joined the HSI from 2010 to 2016, nearly all were on a strong upward momentum and had risen for several months or even years before the announcement of the index reshuffle.


Between the index reshuffle and the implementation day – usually three to four weeks – 13 out of the 15 stocks gained. However, one year after inclusion, only five stocks were above the levels traded on inclusion day.

As of the market close last Friday, there are still nine stocks whose prices are lower than their levels when joining the index.

Among them, food and beverage maker Tingyi Cayman Islands Holding, coal miner China Coal Energy, and shoe retailer Belle International are the worst performers.

Tingyi, producer of the Master Kong (康師傅) brand, is the largest maker of instant noodles in China.

Before joining the HSI on December 5, 2011, Tingyi had gained 37 per cent in seven months. However, one month after it joined the index the stock had lost 4 per cent and by the end of 2012 it had fallen 15 per cent. By the time it was removed from the HSI last September, Tingyi had lost 67 per cent of its value.

China Coal Energy jumped 11 per cent in the two months before its addition and continued to rise in the first month, up 16 per cent from its inclusion day level. However, within three months it was back to its original level and within one year it was 14 per cent lower than its inclusion day price. By the time the stock was removed from the HSI in March 2014 it had lost 66 per cent.

The same goes for Belle International (百麗國際), the largest retailer of women’s shoes in China. It jumped nearly 30 per cent in the two months prior to the index addition and rose further in the first month after. But three months later it slipped 5 per cent, and one year on, it barely recovered. By Friday’s close, Belle International had already shed 65 per cent.

“Many stocks may appear more volatile after they join the HSI as the liquidity has increased,” said Kwong.

“It doesn’t mean these stocks are not good companies,” he said. “They usually have solid financial performance and are in the prime time of the industry life cycle. But share prices are driven more by liquidity, not necessarily by fundamentals.”

Blue chip candidates are already “hot stocks” in the market before being noticed by the index, trading on relatively high turnover.

But whenthe Hang Seng Indexes Company reviews the index on a quarterly basis and selects new constituents based on their turnover, market value, industry type and financial performance, the stocks become even “hotter” in the eyes of many investors.

“I don’t think it’s a curse,” said Alex Wong, director of asset management at Ample Financial Group.

“The shares are just overbought before the index addition. But the surge is difficult to sustain. It’s reasonable to have a correction afterwards. After all, being included in the HSI is just a one-time thing,” he said. “It’s a one-time story.”

There are always exceptions as six of the 15 blue chips have recovered to their previous levels, including acoustics supplier AAC Technologies, casino operators Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment, real estate investment trust Link Reit, life insurer AIA Group, and property developer China Resources Land (CRL).

AAC Technologies, Galaxy Entertainment and Link Reit have risen slightly from their reshuffle day levels, while the others have posted more significant gains.

“These stocks have continued to provide reasons for investors to buy in,” Wong said. “They have a story to tell, such as their booming industry.”

AAC Technologies, which makes speakers for smartphones and tablet computers including for Apple’s iPhones and MacBook laptops, have been given a boost by Apple’s share performance, said Kwong. AAC’s share price started to recover in December 2016, almost the same time Apple shares picked up strong momentum.

Apple closed at a fresh record high last Wednesday, pushing its market cap to above US$771 billion.

AAC Technologies also touched an all-time high of HK$98 late last month.

However, Kwong is concerned that index stocks may become more speculative as market liquidity increases on the back of strong money inflows from mainland China.

“This is the trend,” he said. “We are seeing an increasing number of momentum investors.”

A simple way to beat the market, year after year

By Brett Eversole
2 Sep 2014

There's nothing better than a simple, stupid investment idea.

Most folks think you have to reinvent the wheel to beat the market. They think the only way to produce outsized returns is with complex strategies. The kind the average person can't follow.

They're wrong.

Today, I'll show a simple way to beat the stock market. Importantly, this idea makes intuitive sense. And there's an easy way to make the trade today.

This simple idea beats the market by 1.8% a year. That might not sound like much, but over time, it leads to hundreds of percent in excess returns.

Let me explain...

Today's simple market-beating strategy requires us to rethink what "the market" actually is.

In the U.S., our benchmark for stocks is the S&P 500. This index holds the largest 500 companies that trade in the U.S.

That makes sense. If you want to own the U.S., own the biggest and the best. But there's a problem with this approach. As my colleague Porter Stansberry points out...

"S&P organizes its index by giving the biggest, most expensive stocks more "weight" in the index. Thus, the companies least likely to perform well for investors end up collecting the largest amount of investment capital from index funds.

That index isn't designed to help investors. It's designed to help sell S&P's bond ratings to issuers – i.e. large public companies."

Porter's describing "market cap weighting." It puts more of the index value into the largest companies, and less into the smaller companies.

In the case of the S&P 500, the top 50 companies make up nearly half of the index. That's a problem... as the largest companies tend to be the most mature, and tend to provide lower returns over the long term.

But history shows there's an easy way to beat this formula.

The simple change is moving from market cap weighting to equal weighting. In the equal weight S&P 500, each stock is 0.2% (one 500th) of the index, regardless of size.

That might seem like a minor change. But the increase to returns is enormous.

Since its inception in 1989, the equal-weight S&P 500 is up 1,297% (including dividends). The normal S&P returned just 823% over the same period (also including dividends).

Over that 25-year period, the equal weight S&P 500 returned 11.3% a year versus 9.5% in the market cap-weighted S&P 500... a 1.8% annual outperformance.

Again, an extra 1.8% a year might not sound like much. But it adds up. And during the "lost decade" of the 2000s, the equal weight S&P 500 doubled while the normal index went nowhere.

The great news for investors is that there's an easy way to make this trade today. It's called the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Fund (NYSE: RSP, Stock Forum).

While you've likely never heard of RSP, it's a seasoned fund that has been available for over a decade. It does a fantastic job tracking the equal weight S&P 500. And it makes following this idea easy.

Like I said, this is a simple idea. But that's a good thing. We don't need to reinvent the wheel to beat the market.

It takes an index everyone knows about, makes a small change, and increases long-term returns. Perfect.

If you're a long-term investor looking to maximize gains, forget about the S&P 500. Put money to work the smart way. Shares of RSP are the easy way to do it.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 08, 2017, 08:14:14 AM

GD Express continues climb on e-commerce optimism, bonus issue ~ 7 Apr 2017

Want to know if your local Payless ShoeSource store is closing? ~ 7 Apr 2017
Payless ShoeSource is closing nearly 400 stores in the U.S. and Puerto Rico as part of a bankruptcy restructuring


America’s retailers are closing stores faster than ever ~ 7 Apr 2017

Postmedia CEO warns of even more cost-cutting to come ~ 6 Apr 2017
​After recent rounds of mass layoffs, Postmedia is warning that it still needs to cut costs after revenue plummeted by 13.5% in its latest quarter. Recently, Postmedia laid off 54 employees at its B.C. papers, the Vancouver Sun and the Province.


US job cuts jump 17% in March, but the total is lower than last year: Challenger report ~ 6 Apr 2017
U.S. employers announced plans in March to cut 43,310 jobs, a 17% increase from February.

Fairfax journalists condemn ​​proposed $30m job cuts and political positioning ~ 6 Apr 2017

Tacoma’s News Tribune to cut jobs as top editor quits ~ 6 Apr 2017
The paper is also preparing for a more digital-focused strategy as part of a plan with its corporate owners.

E-Commerce is worth RM4.9 billion in Malaysia ~ 6 Apr 2017

Retail layoffs are far from over as more store closures loom ~ 6 Apr 2017


Louis Vuitton to open new store at Changi Airport in Singapore in 2018 ~ 5 Apr 2017

Louis Vuitton will be the latest addition to Changi Airport’s more than 360 retail stores and 140 food & beverage outlets sprawled over 76,000 sqm of retail floor space.


Alibaba plans regional distribution hub in Malaysia ~ 30 Mar 2017

Coming soon: New mall, GPO at SingPost Centre  ~ 29 Mar 2017

An artist’s impression of the new retail mall at the SingPost Centre next to Paya Lebar MRT Station.


Share price of logistic firms continue to rise ~ 28 Mar 2017


Party time for logistic firms ~ 28 Mar 2017


The story of SF Express’ Wang Wei and how he became richer than Alibaba’s Jack Ma ~ 22 Mar 2017


Logistics counters rally ~ 21 Mar 2017


One of China’s richest men presides over an army of 80,000 couriers and 30 planes ~ 2 Mar 2017


10 brick-and-mortar stores you will never see in Singapore again because you shop online ~ 4 May 2016


Amid troubles in global courier services, a Malaysian giant arises ~ 15 Mar 2016


Down to earth Teong stuns market with GD Express investment ~ 20 Feb 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 21, 2017, 12:56:54 PM
Analysts positive on SP Setia's Singapore land purchase ~ 20 Apr 2017*

Analysts hold SP Setia's earnings forecast pending Singapore project launch ~ 19 Apr 2017

Malaysian developer S P Setia to build $457 million luxury condo in Singapore ~ 19 Apr 2017

SP Setia lands Singapore site for S$265m ~ 19 Apr 2017
SP Setia tendered for a parcel of Singapore land (99-year leasehold) for S$265m or S$939 per square foot.

Artist impression of S P Setia's Eco Sanctuary condominium.


Singapore home prices fall, extending decline to 14th quarter ~ 3 Apr 2017


Boomtime property buyers now big losers

By Linette Heng
Dec 13, 2016 06:00 am

More than 800 condo units were resold at a loss this year as economy slows


An ultra-luxury apartment with a sea view at Sentosa Cove has made the largest loss in the property market so far this year.

Originally bought for $11 million in 2011, the condominium unit at Seascape was sold for $6.35 million in October at a loss of $4.65 million.

A high-end property at The Ritz Carlton Residences in Cairnhill Road made the second-largest loss-making deal of $3.7 million in March.

Another Sentosa Cove unit at Turquoise came in third, in a transaction that made a loss of more than $3.3 million in June.

Statistics from property portal SRX show that sales of condo units with losses of more than $1 million each rose substantially this year, with 48 such transactions, compared with 31 in 2015.

Most of these luxury homes were bought during the property boom years of 2007, 2011 and 2013. Up to November this year, more than 800 transactions involving non-landed private properties were loss-making, double the figure in 2015.

There were nearly 6,000 resale non-landed private property transactions in the first three-quarters of this year, Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) statistics show.


Analysts told The New Paper that "unprofitable" deals are common in a cyclical downturn where market sentiment and employment prospects are poor.

Expectations of a US Fed rate hike by the end of the year, which would increase interest rates here, are also driving these loss-making sales.

R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng said: "It is easy to advise people to avoid buying when there is a property bubble but in reality, people tend to avoid buying property only when there is a slump because they lack confidence."

The high-end property market, buoyed by luxury home collectors in the mid to late 2000s, is losing its appeal because of the sluggish market, he added.

Interested parties now are cash-rich buyers from developing Asian countries who would usually avoid splurging on the luxury market but are now looking for a good deal.

Mr Ong said: "In the past, these properties were a status symbol. The more expensive it was, the higher its value. (Their losses) can be justified by the enjoyment and prestige of occupying these properties for the past couple of years.

"Besides, they would have paid a certain price if they had rented them."

Mr Desmond Sim, CBRE head of research for Singapore and South-east Asia, thinks some of these "bold" multi-million losses are paper losses, which are mitigated by foreign exchange in light of the strong Sing dollar.

"A $2-million loss could also be considered 'manageable' if it means they can unlock $10 million in a more profitable investment elsewhere," he added.

Huge losses for properties in high-end areas

The top-10 loss-making properties are in two affluent neighbourhoods, Sentosa Cove and the Central area.

All of them were bought during the property boom years in 2007, 2011 and 2013. Seven were bought in 2007.

R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng said: "Interest in the high-end segment was at the peak then because of the exciting plans that were announced at that time - such as the integrated resorts, plans to transform the Central Business District - which attracted many foreigners to have a stake in the hype."

Massive loss-making property deals have made the headlines in recent years.

Last year, a Japanese tycoon made an eye-popping S$15.8 million loss on a penthouse unit at St Regis Residences.The Monetary Authority of Singapore, in its Financial Stability Review released last month, warned property investors to be aware of rising vacancy rates, declining rentals and impending interest rate increases.


These factors mean they may not always be able to rely on rental income to service their investment property loans.

CBRE's head of research Desmond Sim said: "The slew of government policies (such as the Total Debt Servicing Ratio and Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty) are put in place to ensure investors don't bite off more than they can chew, or they will choke.

"Those who made such huge losses are not in need of a Heimlich manoeuvre, but they are spitting it out now."

Singapore private home prices feared to plummet by up to 15%

20 Sep 2016

Blame it on supply glut.

Singapore's property sector will remain on the rocks as looming oversupply will continue to put downward pressure on private home prices.

According to a report by OCBC Investment Research, physical oversupply remains a key headwind until 2017.

"Given that the market remains in a state of physical oversupply over 2016-17, we continue to forecast for private home prices to grind 5- 15% lower over this period and also expect pressures on rental rates to persist," the report stated.

OCBC added that property sales in August were at a disappointing 7.8% decline from the record last year.

Meanwhile, OCBC also noted that authorities have already clarified that the recent tweaks of refinancing rules under the Total Debt Servicing Ratio rules should not be construed as an easing of property curbs.

"...the recent TSDR tweaks give existing borrowers more flexibility in managing their debt obligations at lower rates and and would add a measure of stability in the balance sheets of existing borrowers – which is overall positive for the housing market and the banks’ balance sheets," OCBC explained.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on April 21, 2017, 03:53:44 PM

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Paul Tudor Jones Says U.S. Stocks Should ‘Terrify’ Janet Yellen
by Katherine Burton  and Katia Porzecanski
April 21, 2017, 7:00 AM GMT+8
Says U.S. market cap to GDP ratio highest since 2000
Stocks could rise higher after next month’s French election

Paul Tudor Jones. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones has a message for Janet Yellen and investors: Be very afraid.

The legendary macro trader says that years of low interest rates have bloated stock valuations to a level not seen since 2000, right before the Nasdaq tumbled 75 percent over two-plus years. That measure -- the value of the stock market relative to the size of the economy -- should be “terrifying” to a central banker, Jones said earlier this month at a closed-door Goldman Sachs Asset Management conference, according to people who heard him.

Jones is voicing what many hedge fund and other money managers are privately warning investors: Stocks are trading at unsustainable levels. A few traders are more explicit, predicting a sizable market tumble by the end of the year.

Last week, Guggenheim Partner’s Scott Minerd said he expected a "significant correction" this summer or early fall. Philip Yang, a macro manager who has run Willowbridge Associates since 1988, sees a stock plunge of between 20 and 40 percent, according to people familiar with his thinking.

Even Larry Fink, whose BlackRock Inc. oversees $5.4 trillion mostly betting on rising markets, acknowledged this week that stocks could fall between 5 and 10 percent if corporate earnings disappoint.

Caution Flags

Their views aren’t widespread. They’ve seen the carnage suffered by a few money managers who have been waving caution flags for awhile now, as the eight-year equity rally marched on.

But the nervousness feels a bit more urgent now. U.S. stocks sit about 2 percent below the all-time high set on March 1. The S&P 500 index is trading at about 22 times earnings, the highest multiple in almost a decade, goosed by a post-election surge.

Managers expecting the worst each have a pet harbinger of doom. Seth Klarman, who runs the $30 billion Baupost Group, told investors in a letter last week that corporate insiders have been heavy sellers of their company shares. To him, that’s “a sign that those who know their companies the best believe valuations have become full or excessive."

He also noted that margin debt -- the money clients borrow from their brokers to purchase shares -- hit a record $528 billion in February, a signal to some that enthusiasm for stocks may be overheating. Baupost was a small net seller in the first quarter, according to the letter.

Another multi-billion-dollar hedge fund manager, who asked not to be named, said that rising interest rates in the U.S. mean fewer companies will be able to borrow money to pay dividends and buy back shares. About 30 percent of the jump in the S&P 500 between the third quarter of 2009 and the end of last year was fueled by buybacks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The manager says he has been shorting the market, expecting as much as a 10 percent correction in U.S. equities this year.

China Slowdown

Other worried investors, like Guggenheim’s Minerd, cite as potential triggers President Donald Trump’s struggle to enact policies, including a tax overhaul, as well as geopolitical risks.

Yang’s prediction of a dive rests on things like a severe slowdown in China or a greater-than-expected rise in inflation that could lead to bigger rate hikes, people said. Yang didn’t return calls and emails seeking a comment.

Even billionaire Leon Cooperman -- long a stock bull -- wrote to investors in his Omega Advisors that he thinks U.S. shares might stand still until August or September, in part because of flagging confidence in the so-called Trump reflation trade. But he said that they will eventually resume their climb and end the year moderately higher.

Likely Culprit

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While Jones, who runs the $10 billion Tudor Investment hedge fund, is spooked, he says it’s not quite time to short. He predicts that the Nasdaq, which has already rallied almost 10 percent this year, could edge higher if nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen loses France’s presidential election next month as expected. Jones tripled his money in 1987 in large part by correctly calling that October’s market crash.

While the billionaire didn’t say when a market turn might come, or what the magnitude of the fall might be, he did pinpoint a likely culprit.

Just as portfolio insurance caused the 1987 rout, he says, the new danger zone is the half-trillion dollars in risk parity funds. These funds aim to systematically spread risk equally across different asset classes by putting more money in lower volatility securities and less in those whose prices move more dramatically.

Because risk-parity funds have been scooping up equities of late as volatility hit historic lows, some market participants, Jones included, believe they’ll be forced to dump them quickly in a stock tumble, exacerbating any decline.

“Risk parity,” Jones told the Goldman audience, “will be the hammer on the downside.”
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on April 23, 2017, 07:10:46 AM

The Last Time This Happened, The Market Crashed

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Apr 22, 2017 11:13 AM
Authored by Simon Black via,

A few days ago Charles Schwab, the investment brokerage firm, announced that the number of new brokerage accounts soared 44% during the first quarter of 2017.

More specifically, Schwab stated that individual investors are opening up stock trading accounts at the fastest pace the company has seen in 17 years.

17 years.

Anyone remember what happened 17 years ago?

Oh right. The Dot-com bubble burst.

After years of unbelievable gains in the 1990s, the NASDAQ Composite index peaked at 5,132.52 on March 10, 2000.

Simultaneously, during the first quarter of 2000, investors were rushing to open new brokerage accounts invest their savings in the stock market.

The NASDAQ Composite subsequently fell nearly 80% over the next 2 ½ years, wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth from retail investors.

The last phase of any bubble is almost invariably the euphoric shopping spree of an irrational public that buys stocks, real estate, etc. at record highs, foolishly believing that prices will keep rising indefinitely.

That’s what happened in 2000.

And that’s what seems to be happening today.

Investors are once again clamoring to buy expensive, popular stocks at price levels never before seen in the history of the stock market.

Company valuations are sky-high.

At 26.44, the S&P 500’s Price/Earnings ratio is the highest EVER, except for two occasions: the 2008 crash, and the 2000 crash.

At 28.93, the “Shiller P/E ratio”, which looks at company valuations over a longer-term, 10-year period and adjusts for inflation, is at the highest level EVER, except for two occasions: the 2000 crash, and the 1929 crash.

Price to sales ratios are near the highest levels in at least 50 years.

Price to book ratios haven’t been at this level since the 2008 crash.

And the stock market cap to GDP ratio is the highest since the 2000 crash.

(If you don’t understand those terms, I would highly encourage you to read this book. This small investment in your education might be the best you’ll ever make.)

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones described these expensive stock market valuations as “terrifying” earlier this month at a closed-door asset management conference hosted by Goldman Sachs.

Yet for some reason individual retail investors still believe that stock prices will continue to rise.

According to Yale University’s Stock Market Confidence Index, for example, over 90% of individual investors believe that the stock market will rise in the next 12 months.

This sentiment isn’t actually based on any data; it’s simply how people -feel-.

These are classic bubble conditions: record-high prices, unsustainable valuations, baseless euphoria, and a surge in activity from retail investors.

In fairness, it’s possible that corporate profits surge by unimaginable rates; this would bring stock valuations back to reality.

But that’s unlikely.

Corporate profits are more or less tethered to the overall economy. If GDP growth is flat, corporate profits will be flat.

Real GDP growth in the US basically went flat in 2016 at just 1.6%.

And the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that the US economy grew at a pitiful 0.5% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2017.

Consumer spending, the mainstay of the US economy, slumped in the first three months of this year.

Plus, interest rates are starting to rise, which increases borrowing costs for both businesses and individuals.

Given such anemic conditions it seems a risky to bet everything on a sudden shock-and-awe surge in corporate profits.

So we’re right back where we started– an overvalued market exhibiting classic signs of a bubble.

I’m not suggesting that some major crash is imminent.

It’s entirely possible that this bubble can get even bigger; the stock market might rise another 10%, 20%, or more.

But it’s also possible we’ll see a drop of 40%+ from these levels. Remember, the NASDAQ Composite fell 78% from its peak in 2000.

Rational individuals always consider their downside first. Fear of loss should be far greater than the fear of missing out.

Quite simply if the reward isn’t worth the risk, don’t do it. Find something else. Or do nothing and simply wait on the sidelines.

The universe of options is a lot bigger than simply “US stocks”, and there’s an abundance of great opportunity outside of the mainstream.

Lately I’ve been involved in a number of secured lending deals where I’m able to earn between 10% to 12% per year with almost zero risk.

This strikes me as a great alternative to the stock market; I’d rather make a fixed 10% with minimal risk than potentially make 15% or 20%, but risk a 50% loss.

I’ve also been buying cash-producing royalties, which in my view is one of the most undervalued asset classes in the world. (More on that another time…)

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 23, 2017, 08:50:51 AM
Oil prices fall amid fears of a new downtrend ~ 21 Apr 2017
Light, sweet crude for June delivery settled down $1.09, or 2.1%, at $49.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost $1.03, or 1.9%, to $51.96 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both had their lowest settlement since the last week of March.


USD/RUB clinches highs around 56.40, US data eyed ~ 21 Apr 2017

Rouble steady near multi-month highs ~ 18 Apr 2017
At 0744 GMT, the rouble was little changed at 55.96 against the dollar.

USD/RUB to push modestly higher in the coming months – Lloyds Bank ~ 17 Apr 2017
“Sharp swings in crude oil prices made the Russian ruble the second most volatile EM currency over the past month, just behind the South African rand. More recently, increased geopolitical risk related to Russian military involvement in Syria have added to the possibility of further unexpected gyrations against the US dollar.”


Russian rouble stable after Tillerson visit brings no bad surprises ~ 13 Apr 2017
At 0738 GMT, the rouble was little changed against the dollar at 56.61 and had gained 0.08% to trade at 60.31 versus the euro.

Fixing Russia's growth for economists takes one ruble at a time ~ 10 Apr 2017

Ruble’s next trick will be to make Russian consumer prices melt ~ 2 Feb 2017

Oil rally sends Russian ruble soaring ~ 12 Dec 2016

Impact of oil prices on Russian ruble decreasing ~ 28 Oct 2016
In 2014, the ruble significantly decreased in value against the dollar. The most dramatic decrease was registered in December, when the exchange rate reached 67.79 rubles on December 18 up from 32.65 rubles on January 1, 2014. The Russian currency has slightly recovered since then.

Why investors are loading up on rubles ~ 11 Apr 2016


Ruble ends three-day advance as oil correlation climbs to record ~ 3 Mar 2016

Russia's economy hit hard by falling oil prices and Western sanctions ~ 4 Aug 2015

Here's why the Russian ruble is collapsing ~ 17 Dec 2014
The Russian economy has been in trouble for months, but last night, things got absurdly bad. The value of the ruble dropped as much as 19% in the last 24 hours, the worst single-day drop for the ruble in 16 years.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 29, 2017, 08:07:21 AM
“We’ve been decreasing our telecom exposure across the region. Singtel is one of the last holdings we addressed, and we just don’t feel it’s a good place to be right now.” ~ 有人辞官归故里,有人漏夜赶科场。

China Coal Miner said to vie for Singapore mobile carrier M1 ~ 27 Apr 2017
Axiata has a 29% stake in M1, while Keppel has a 19% holding and Singapore Press owns 13%.

Here's why firms may be interested in M1's potential sale

28 Apr 2017

Singapore has a close to 150% telco penetration rate.

With the news of the potential sale of Singapore telco giant M1 amidst the strategic review being conducted by its key shareholders – Keppel T&T, Axiata Group Bhd (Axiata) and SPH – investors will be taking the chance of grabbing a slice of Singapore's competitive telco market.

According to DBS, there are four reasons why potential bidders would be interested in M1:

For starters, foreign telcos with strong cash and balance sheets may be looking to expand their reach beyond their home bases. DBS explained that telco takeover deals may be hard to come by as regulators might attempt to block such deals, citing antitrust concerns, or national interests at stake. However, Singapore's mature telco market with close to 150% penetration rate and good telco infrastructure in place may attract foreign investors to place their bids on the table for M1.

DBS added that PE firms that may have existing stakes in other foreign telco or telco assets may be interested in taking M1 private, with the possibility of relisting the entire portfolio of telco assets thereafter.

Firms within the telco sphere such as telco equipment manufacturers may also express their interest in investing in telcos to expand their reach along the value chain.

Other companies not belonging to the already given firm categories may be interested in M1 as this could be an opportunity for them to make a foray into the telco scene and diversify.

A $130 billion manager sells Singtel as competition intensifies ~ 28 Apr 2017
“We’ve been decreasing our telecom exposure across the region. Singtel is one of the last holdings we addressed, and we just don’t feel it’s a good place to be right now.”
  • Henderson Global’s Asia funds have cut Singtel equity stake
  • Shares dropped this month on spectrum costs, TPG entry
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 01, 2017, 07:50:33 AM
GM profit soars while Mazda takes a severe beating
It was the eighth consecutive quarter in which GM’s results topped expectations on Wall Street. The earnings were equal to $1.70 a share, while analysts had projected $1.48.

General Motors shuts Halol plant; first closure of auto facility in India since 2005 ~ 28 Apr 2017
The Halol shutdown is part of the plan for a complete pullout from India by GM.

This is the last year a car will be made in Australia ~ 25 Apr 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 01, 2017, 11:18:00 AM
Former entrepreneur of the year Nanz Chong-Komo said: "The writing was on the wall - the people who stayed believed; the people who didn't stay stopped believing in the leadership." ~ 24 Oct 2015

Turning Point: The rise and fall of entrepreneur Nanz Chong-Komo ~ 23 Apr 2017
Once a high-profile member, Mrs Chong-Komo left City Harvest Church 5 years ago. The church has been in the news because 6 of its leaders were convicted of misappropriating church funds to launch the pop career of founder Kong Hee's wife Ho Yeow Sun.

Nanz Chong-Komo on taking charge of her life (video)

Rise and fall and rise again of One.99 shop founder Nanz Chong-Komo


Netizens: Unfairness in the reduced sentences of six former CHC leaders ~ 7 Apr 2017
Jason Teo wrote, ""None of the appellants could be said to have benefited, and their fault lies in adopting the wrong means, said the judges." What about their house in Sentosa and Beverly Hills? Pui!"

Singapore slashes jail term for showbiz pastor Kong Hee from 8 years to 3.5 years ~ 7 Apr 2017


City Harvest Church founder Kong Hee puts Sentosa Cove home for sale for $10m ~ 2 Jul 2015
Kong and five others are alleged to have misused $50 million of church funds and then falsified church accounts to cover up the misuse. They are accused of funnelling millions from the church's building fund to pay for the Crossover Project, to boost the music career of Kong's wife Ho Yeow Sun.


Singapore megachurch founder on trial for 'stealing more than $40million to fund his wife's American pop star dream' ~ 8 Oct 2013


From $127k flat to $9.3m condo ~ 29 Jun 2012


Sun Ho lives in $28,000 a month rented Hollywood mansion ~ 20 Jun 2010

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 01, 2017, 11:49:13 AM
Redefining affordable housing ~ 20 Apr 2017
“Rental for a semi-furnished unit at Danga View Apartment in Johor Baru was RM2,500 last year, but the same unit is going for RM1,500 this year.”


‘No acute housing woes if govt had used its lands for public housing’ ~ 20 Apr 2017
Saying government land shouldn't be sold for commercial development, veteran property man adds its not too late to redevelop buildings such as Pudu Sentral and Keramat Mall into public housing.


Construction costs up 10% hobbling builders, Rehda survey shows ~ 20 Apr 2017
The local association of developers said over half (56%) of its 165 members surveyed in 12 states between July and December last year had cited pricey costs of materials, labour, compliance to standards and the Goods and Services Tax as causing their overall business operations to increase by 10%.


Would rent-to-own be the solution to housing affordability woes? ~ 12 Oct 2016

Lower costs key to solving housing blues ~ 21 Sep 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 02, 2017, 06:47:33 AM
Amid the ringgit’s slump, a tale of two families’ contrasting fortunes ~ 15 Apr 2017
Mr Vasanthan Balachandran and his family used to have to think hard about stretching their 400 ringgit budget when shopping at the SongMart supermarket in the outskirts of Johor Baru. These days, they just buy whatever they feel like, largely thanks to the Malaysian currency’s unprecedented slump against the Singapore dollar. “We can just take a basket and drop everything we want. Life is sweet. Life is bling bling,” said the Malaysian, who earns about S$2,000  as a pre-boarding screening officer at Changi Airport.


Earning in ringgit while having to spend in Singapore, the family of five - four Singaporeans and a Malaysian - soon discovered how tough life could get as their spending power fell dramatically. It had simply become too expensive for them to live in Singapore on Mr Anuar’s RM3,000 salary. With her husband’s salary shrinking in value from S$1,200 to S$950 due to the currency fluctuations, Madam Zainon and her children could no longer afford to spend a day in their home country without missing a meal.


Compare: What you can buy with RM50 and S$50 at a supermarket ~ 15 Apr 2017
With the Singapore dollar continuing to notch new record highs against the Malaysian ringgit, TODAY made two grocery runs at Giant supermarkets in Singapore and Johor Baru to see what this means for the average consumer (at an exchange rate of S$1 = RM3.17)

What we bought with the equivalent of S$50 in Johor Baru:

1.   1.8kg whole chicken (RM14.49)
2.   3-litre bottle of Naturel canola and sunflower cooking oil (RM21.99)
3.   500g box of Kellogg’s cornflakes (RM9.99)
4.   505g can of condensed milk (RM3.06)
5.   500g block of Buttercup butter spread (RM10.77)
6.   600g jumbo loaf of original classic Gardenia bread (RM3.40)
7.   2-litre bottle of floor cleaning agent (RM5.99)
8.   Bunch of round spinach (RM1.99)
7.   100g pack of chilli (RM1.69)
8.   340g bottle of chilli sauce (RM1.99)
9.   Five-pack Maggi instant noodles (RM4.79)
10. 1kg pack of brown sugar (RM5.20)
11. 2 cartons of 1-litre Marigold HL milk (RM11.99)
12. 2kg pack of Fab anti-bacterial washing powder (RM14.39)
13. 5kg pack of Thai fragrant rice (RM21.69)
14. Tray of 30 fresh chicken eggs (RM8.09)
15. 1kg pack of Milo mix (RM16.99)


What we bought with S$50 in Singapore:

1.   1kg whole chicken (S$6.60)
2.   2-litre bottle of Naturel canola and sunflower cooking oil (S$8.70)
3.   275g box of Kellogg’s cornflakes (S$3.65)
4.   600g jumbo loaf of super soft & fine Gardenia bread (S$3.30)
5.   3-litre bottle of floor cleaning agent (S$4.45)
6.   Pack of Sio Peck Chye vegetables (S$0.75)
7.   5kg pack of Thai fragrant rice (S$9.30)
8.   Five-pack Maggi instant noodles (S$2.20)
9.   800g pack of brown sugar (S$3.50)
10. Tray of 30 fresh chicken eggs (S$3.85)
11. 400g pack of Milo mix (S$3.95)


What we bought with RM50 in Johor Baru:

1.   505g can of condensed milk (RM3.06)
2.   600g jumbo loaf of original classic Gardenia bread (RM3.40)
3.   2-litre bottle of floor cleaning agent (RM5.99)
4.   A handful of chilli (RM0.50)
5.   340g bottle of chilli sauce (RM1.99)
6.   Five-pack Maggi instant noodles (RM4.79)
7.   1kg pack of brown sugar (RM5.20)
8.   Tray of 30 fresh chicken eggs (RM8.09)
9.  1kg pack of Milo mix (RM16.99)


What we bought with the equivalent of RM50 in Singapore:

1.   2-litre bottle of Naturel canola and sunflower cooking oil (S$8.70)
2.   600g jumbo loaf of super soft & fine Gardenia bread (S$3.30)
3.   Tray of 30 fresh chicken eggs (S$3.85)

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 07, 2017, 07:28:22 AM
行到水穷处, 坐看云起时。

Johor Baru to get more mega malls ~ 4 May 2017
Shoppers and the business community in Johor are looking forward to the opening of new shopping malls this year.

Paradigm Mall Johor Baru


Mid Valley Southkey Megamall


Kluang Mall


Gander Mountain, popular gun and hunting store, closing nationwide ~ 6 May 2017
The company’s closing is yet another reminder of the current climate in retail, where companies have competed with the growth of online shopping and customers flock to juggernauts like Amazon.


US consumer credit $16.431B vs est $14.000B ~ 5 May 2017!/us-consumer-credit-16431b-vs-est-14000b-20170505


Marsh closing 9 more stores in central Indiana by end of May ~ 4 May 2017


US first-quarter growth weakest in three years, as consumer spending falters ~ 28 Apr 2017
US Q1 GDP increased at a 0.7% annual rate. That was the weakest performance since the first quarter of 2014.


Stores are closing at an epic pace ~ 22 Apr 2017
Physical store fronts have been eclipsed by ecommerce masters like Amazon. The toll it's taken can be seen in emptying malls and shopping centers across the country.

Americans owe $1 trillion in credit card debt due to rising interest rates ~ 16 Apr 2017
U.S. consumers owe $1.0004 trillion in credit cards, up 6.2% from a year ago and 0.3% from January.


Why so many stores are closing now ~ 7 Apr 2017


U.S. growth cools on trade drag as business spending rises ~ 27 Jan 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 08, 2017, 10:03:25 AM
Capital controls, high-speed rail behind collapse of Bandar Malaysia deal? ~ 6 May 2017
China's capital controls, bidding for the KL-Singapore High Speed Rail project and Bandar Malaysia's increased worth may have contributed to the collapse of a US$1.7 billion deal to offset a Malaysian state fund's debts.

The mystery of an aborted deal ~ 5 May 2017
The collapse of Bandar Malaysia deal has sent a powerful shockwave across the market. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese authorities had not approved CREC's investment.


China's deleveraging bill tops $500 billion ~ 8 May 2017
  • Bonds, stocks and metals sink as regulators tackle leverage
  • JPMorgan Asset says markets may fall 10% before Beijing blinks


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on May 09, 2017, 03:23:49 PM

China has now become the biggest fear for markets
Patti Domm   | @pattidomm
8 Hours Ago
 President of China, Xi Jinping.   More opportunities as China opens up: Mobius 
Monday, 8 May 2017 | 1:46 AM ET | 02:40
Stocks are at record highs, the VIX is at a 10-year low, and while investors are relieved the French presidency did not go to an anti-euro candidate, new risks are filling the void.

Topping the list of market worries is China, which has been on the back burner for months now. Some weaker-than-expected data, however, has put spotlight on the country's economy.


Last week, PMI manufacturing data showed signs of slowing, and China's trade data overnight was weaker than expected, with misses both on imports and exports. Chinese inflation data was due Tuesday.

"I'm more concerned about the risks stemming from a China slowdown," said Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab chief global investment strategist.

Commodities have sold off on concerns. Copper was down about 3 percent last week amid concerns about China, and off another 1.4 percent Monday.

"Some of this might be some warning signs that China could be the next thing that would throw the market a curve ball," he said. If the Chinese economy loses so much steam that its currency weakens a lot, and commodities continue to sell off, it could be a negative for other markets

"The government has slowed down on infrastructure spending, thinking private sector spending would pick up and offset it. I'm just worried rising interest rates, tighter conditions and some new down payment requirements could nip that in the bud," Kleintop said.

China President Xi Jinping is expected to consolidate his power later this year at the party congress in November. "Now that the political hatches are battened down, the main risks in the world today are still deflation, not inflation. A significant slowdown in China could be deflationary," said Paul Christopher, chief international investment strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

Christopher added, however, that China has responded to signs of weakness and market sell offs, as in August 2015, by easing credit and stepping back from reform, when necessary.

"For a long time, China was a high impact, low probability. Now the near term risk of a slowdown has a higher probability but probably a lower impact," he said. "Slowdown does not mean financial disruption."

 China growth is on target: Mobius   China growth is on target: Mobius 
Monday, 8 May 2017 | 12:57 AM ET | 01:39
He said the rest of the world is stronger and would hold up much better now than a year or two ago. "The Chinese have shown if they get into reform and the economy slows, they are able to moderate the speed of reform in order to maintain stability. They are not so gung ho on reform that they want to risk the stability of the markets," Christopher said.

China's Shanghai index was lower Monday, while other Asian markets were higher. There were reports that officials are looking to curb some of the speculation there, and there has been talk of reform in the financial markets from cross market risk.

Some of the other risks around China have eased however. President Donald Trump has said he would not call China a currency manipulator.

"I think Xi has been very cautious in reacting to anything Trump has said," said Kleintop. "I think China's won any meeting they had with Trump or Trump officials. So far they've been coming out on top."

"The unknown, unknowns are still out there. The VIX is quite low. The market is near a record high, and could we get a blip that causes a pull back? If it doesn't affect the economic recovery, our advice is still to buy," said Christopher.

Christopher said China's economy is a bigger worry if the U.S. does not follow the reflation policies laid out by President Trump when he won the election. Markets have become skeptical of how quickly tax reform can be enacted, especially since the Senate plans to come up with its own health care bill.

U.S. stocks held their ground Monday, and did not react much at all to the French election. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.09 point gain, closing at a record 2,399.38. The VIX, which is the CBOE, Volatility Index, fell 7.6 percent to a 10-year low of 9.77.

China is also clearly a key in potentially resolving tensions over North Korea's nuclear program. Investors were watching for any activity from North Korea ahead of South Korea's presidential election Tuesday. The front-runner there, Moon Jae-In has signaled a more conciliatory tone toward North Korea, and a less friendly stance on the United States.

"Geopolitical risk is one of those black swans where you can't predict the timing. You just watch. In the case of North Korea, what we're watching more carefully is whether there is another nuclear test," said Christopher. "That seems to be the red line President Trump has drawn and it's not clear what arrangements he's made with the Chinese...I really think they would have worked something out, in the event there's another nuclear test."

He said it's unclear if either China or the U.S. would act without alerting the other.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on May 11, 2017, 06:28:48 AM

主页 > 财经 > 国际 > 商长:国会行动慢 美国今年增长3%无望
10点看 2017年5月11日

(华盛顿10日讯)美国商务部长罗斯(Wilbur Ross)周二指出,美国经济今年达不到特朗普政府提出的3%增长目标,实现目标需要等到所有税收、监管、贸易和能源政策完全到位。


“国会在每件事情上都行动迟缓。” 但他指出,在特朗普总统有利于企业的政策全部实施到位后一年,增长目标最终有可能实现。













Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on May 21, 2017, 06:42:00 AM

657点看 2017年5月20日



















Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 29, 2017, 07:37:24 AM
Shipping firm CMA CGM upbeat as profits rise again ~ 19 May 2017
Container shipping line CMA CGM posted higher first-quarter profits, helped by a turnaround at recently acquired NOL, and gave an upbeat assessment for the current quarter in another sign that the shipping industry is emerging from a slump.


CMA CGM completes 100% acquisition of NOL ~ 5 Sep 2016
The French line announced it had completed the compulsory acquisition of all shares it did own in NOL following its SGD1.30 takeover offer. NOL is now wholly-owned subsidiary of CMA CGM and its shares will be delisted from the SGX at 9am on 6 September.


Container shipping faces critical moment after years of losses ~ 22 Feb 2016
Sector shows signs of revival after deals and new sector alliances shake up market.


The shipping industry is suffering from China’s trade slowdown ~ 12 Feb 2016
So many boats, so little cargo as Chinese exports and imports drop.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 11, 2017, 10:52:21 AM
Demand for high-end homes near Orchard road remains strong ~ 23 Sep 2016

Malaysian developer pays S$72m for prime freehold site in Draycott Park near Orchard road ~ 7 Jun 2017
The total purchase consideration for the Property is S$72,000,000.00 equivalent to RM223,200,000.00, based on the exchange rate of SGD1.00 : RM3.10 and was agreed upon on a willing buyer and willing seller basis, after taking into consideration the potential for development of exclusive mid-rise apartments and the close proximity to Ardmore Park and Orchard Road.

Losses mount in resale market ~ 20 May 2017


SRX: Month-on-month rise in private home resale prices comes to halt ~ 11 May 2017
Month-on-month rise in private home resale prices comes to halt in April, while sales fall 21%

URA reduces occupancy cap for private properties ~ 11 May 2017

Russian oligarch suffers 50% loss on Singapore real estate sale ~ 30 Apr 2017

$1.8 mil loss at Orchard Scotts ~ 3 Dec 2016
On Nov 15, $1.8 million went down the drain for the Indonesian seller of a 1,647 sq ft condominium at Orchard Scotts. He sold the unit at $1,427 psf to a Singaporean buyer after purchasing it at $2,540 psf in January 2012. This translates into a 44% loss for the seller, or 9% annualised loss over a holding period just shy of five years. However, as the Singapore dollar has appreciated against the Indonesian rupiah over the same period, the seller could have sustained a smaller loss of 25% in IDR terms, or $782,692 in SGD terms, after accounting for the exchange rate. Completed in 2008, Orchard Scotts is a 387-unit, 99-year leasehold development with two apartment towers and a serviced residence tower.

Singapore dollar against the currency of other countries ~ 2011 to 2014


"I've always preferred mythology to history. History is truth that becomes an illusion. Mythology is an illusion that becomes reality." ~ Jean Cocteau

How to convert a S$3.2 million property loss into a S$1.5 million gain

18 Jun 2015

When an overseas buyer invests in a Singapore property, he (or she) is converting his home currency into Singapore dollar. As such, he is taking a currency bet.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 11, 2017, 01:34:59 PM
One Belt, One Road has no basis in China’s history ~ 9 Jun 2017
Much of the writing on Obor has been project-specific or country-specific, but its whole is different from—indeed greater than—the sum of its parts. There is little analysis or evaluation from a wider perspective. It is, in effect, a portfolio of infrastructure projects—roads, railways, oil pipelines, power grids, information highways, ports, industrial corridors—to foster connectivity and support development. At the same time, it could use the excess capacities in railways, steel, metals and cement, to provide work for their construction companies, while using their experience of infrastructure projects.

Why is China leaving Singapore out in the cold? ~ 3 Jun 2017


Why China's 'One Belt, One Road' plan' is doomed to fail ~ 1 May 2017
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 29, 2017, 07:33:36 AM
Well-known cancer surgeon gets 8-month suspension for professional misconduct ~ 28 Jun 2017
Prominent cancer surgeon Ang Peng Tiam’s punishment for giving a former patient suffering from Stage 2B lung cancer false hope about her disease has been upped to an eight-month suspension.

A rude, wrong cancer doctor ~ 8 Jun 2008
Total cost we spent in about 4 mth. ..>sgd500k…recommend Dr ang to anyone?

Doctors tell all—and it’s bad

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 18, 2017, 08:24:10 AM
Competition forcing more cabbies to give up their taxis ~ 17 Jul 2017
Ride-hailing is killing Singapore's taxi industry.



2017年6月18日 星期日 11:52 AM


由印度尼西亚企业家张天来(Radius Wibowo)前年成立的SIX目前只在美国休斯顿运作,该城市已有大约5000名司机,新加坡则是公司拓展业务的第二个城市。







Singapore has up to 1.5 times more private-hire cars than cabs ~ ~ 25 May 2017
The number of chauffeur-driven private-hire cars has soared by nearly 70 times since Uber and Grab entered Singapore in 2013 to 41,297 units as at April 2017. As at the end of Apr 2017, it stood at 41,297 – 56% more than the total taxi population of 26,476.


All hail the ride-hailing kings ~ 22 May 2017
Technological disruption has led to shake-ups across a wide variety of industries, causing some companies to boom and others to fade.


Singapore’s new ride-hailing apps are set to fail, but that’s a good thing ~ 19 Apr 2016


私人出租车预召软件需要规范? ~ 14 Oct 2015

S'pore taxi companies losing millions from Grabtaxi and Uber competition ~ 10 Oct 2015

Can't find cabs on the road? Try the yard ~ 10 Oct 2015

Taxi booking app gets at least S$12.5m from Temasek unit ~ 9 Apr 2014
Temasek Holdings has pumped at least US$10m (S$12.5m) into 2-year-old start-up GrabTaxi, a smartphone app that lets commuters book any of the taxis nearest to their location, regardless of which company operates it. GrabTaxi announced it has received additional funding from Vertex Venture Holdings, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Temasek Holdings.


ComfortDelgro ~ Bear Flag Breakout, interim TP S$2.12

ComfortDelgro closed with a bullish engulfing @ S$2.26 (+0.03, +1.3%) with 16.3m shares done on 7 Jul 2017.

Immediate support @ S$2.20, immediate resistance @ S$2.32.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 26, 2017, 01:37:35 AM
German car makers' shares crash on allegations of collusion ~ 24 Jul 2017

BMW denies diesel cheating as EU, Germany probe auto cartel ~ 24 Jul 2017

German automakers formed a secret cartel in the ‘90s to collude on diesel emissions: report ~ 24 Jul 2017

Dieselgate product of vast VW-BMW-Daimler car cartel conspiracy, fresh report says ~ 22 Jul 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 26, 2017, 11:27:20 AM
Offshore market trading for US$/ringgit no longer an issue ~ 26 Jul 2017

Foreign net buying below RM100m mark last week ~ 25 Jul 2017*-last-week

Foreign investors are cashing in on an emerging market with a booming currency ~ 25 Jul 2017
Bank Negara’s international reserves at RM425.4b (US$99.1b) as at 14 July 2017 ~ 21 Jul 2017
The central bank issued a statement today saying that the reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.

BNM forex losses: Nation lost RM4b annually ~ 28 Jun 2017
MALAYSIA would have had RM100 billion more in its foreign reserves if not for the foreign exchange (forex) losses scandal that happened in the 1990s, former Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) assistant governor Datuk Abdul Murad Khalid said.

Malaysian currency in free fall ~ 11 Aug 2015
Reserves have fallen from about US$140 billion to around US$100 billion.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 16, 2017, 09:19:49 AM
“The crowd always loses because the crowd is always wrong. It is wrong because it behaves normally.” ~ Fred C. Kelly

Cautionary tale of research reports

In-house stock analysts' persistent BUY calls and price targets on Ezion were unanimously wrong (2 Jun 2014 to 22 May 2015)

UBS shuns Singapore and Hong Kong housing markets ~ 15 Sep 2017


Singapore private property prices to rise 10% by end-2018: Report

By Rachael Boon
12 Sep 2017

Singapore property prices are set to jump 10% by the end of next year, according to United States banking giant Morgan Stanley.

The bank's in-house experts expect private home prices to start rising next month - instead of early next year as it stated in a previous forecast. The forecast does not relate to Housing Board flats.

The significant upswing in prices would reverse a four-year downcycle after a range of cooling measures was introduced to slow the market.

"We see signs of an imminent turnaround from sharply rising transaction volumes, which suggest a narrowing of buyer and seller expectations, growth in prices from late June implied by the upward revision in the Urban Redevelopment Authority's price index value in the second quarter, and price increases in the resale segment as evidenced from higher frequency monthly indices," said the report.

The bank explained that rising prices, along with developer sales volumes "sustaining a growth rate of more than 50 per cent year on year so far this year, suggest a much improved outlook for property developers after what has been a four-year downcycle".

It also cited other positive market behaviour such as a recent surge in collective sales. It said this has displaced some 1,500 home owners across seven projects - estimated to get average proceeds of $1.8 million each. "With leverage, this adds up to $13 billion of potential capital inflows that could find their way back into the property market, more than the entire value of developer sales in 2016." The bank said more collective deals could be around the corner.

Maybank Kim Eng analyst Derrick Heng had said in a separate recent report that more than $3 billion in collective-sale deals have been concluded so far this year, with another 30 properties at various stages of the en bloc process.

Morgan Stanley noted unsold inventory has fallen to a record 22-year low of 17,000 units as of June, or 1.4 years on current sales volumes. "Inventory absorption accelerated on improving buyer sentiment and as households deployed excess cash after staying on the sidelines through the 2014 to 2016 lull...

"Underpinned by rising demand outpacing tight supply, we believe the coming property price upcycle supports a combination of street revalued net asset value upgrades and narrowing revalued net asset value discounts, driving a further re-rating in developer stock prices," said Morgan Stanley.

The bank noted City Developments has the largest land bank among its listed peers, at six years' worth, "and we believe, the highest earnings sensitivity to rising Singapore average selling prices, as well as highest share price sensitivity to rising property prices empirically".

Recovery? What recovery? ~ 22 Aug 2017
For Singapore private residential properties, there are still over 46,000 units in the pipelines. The government hasn’t stopped releasing new sites and we have just started the new round of en bloc fever.


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 16, 2017, 10:17:52 AM
Distressing footage of sex slaves used by Japanese soldiers in WWII revealed for the first time ~ 6 Jul 2017

慰安妇旧照揭日军丑恶暴行 ~ 27 Aug 2015

Women forced into sexual slavery by the Japanese in WWII tell their stories ~ 14 Aug 2015

Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun apologises over false stories on Fukushima and WWII sex slaves ~ — 13 Sep 2014

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: king on September 28, 2017, 07:17:14 AM

Get ready for the stock market’s October surprise

By Mark Hulbert
Published: Sep 26, 2017 11:51 am ET
Investors can expect a bumpier ride down Wall Street

Fasten your seatbelts. October is just around the corner, and historically it’s the most volatile month of all for stocks.

The data are summarized in the chart, below. (For the statisticians among you: The standard deviation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA+0.25%   daily percentage changes in past Octobers is 1.44%, in contrast to 1.08% across all 12 months taken together.)

You might think that October is an outlier because of the 1987 Crash; on Oct. 19 of that year the Dow fell 22%. But that year accounts for only a small portion of October’s above-average volatility; October tops the monthly volatility rankings even if we exclude 1987.

To be sure, the data that appear in the accompanying chart are based on more than 100 years of history, and there is considerable variation in the historical record. So there is no guarantee that the stock market in October of this year will experience above-average volatility. But you probably should be prepared for it nonetheless, since — compared to price trends — volatility trends in the stock market tend to be relatively predictable.

Read: Warning: ‘Group stink’ is as strong now as it was in 2000 and 2007, says fund manager

How should you prepare for a volatile October? Probably the best way is to resolve not to panic if and when there is a spike in volatility. Despite the month’s dubious honor at the top of the volatility rankings, for example, its average performance is no worse than average — in seventh place, in fact, when ranked according to average Dow performance since that benchmark was created in the late 1800s. Since 2000, furthermore, October is in third place in a ranking of monthly performance, with an average gain of 1.84%.

Another factoid that may help you stay the course in the face of a spike in volatility: far more bull markets have begun in October than have ended. This, by the way, is the source of October’s reputation as a “bear killer.”

Majority of Wall Street CFOs believe this stock market is "bubblicious" (1:11)
More than 80% of chief financial officers that accounting firm Deloitte surveyed think the U.S. stock market is overvalued and ready to pop.

Consider the bull market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, according to which there have been 35 bull markets since the beginning of the last century. No fewer than eight of those bull markets began in October. If bull market beginnings had been randomly distributed across all months of the calendar, fewer than three would have begun in October.

To be sure, no one way is saying that we’ll see a new bull market begin this October. But it’s worth noting that a below-average number of bear markets have begun during the month—just one of the 35 in the Ned Davis calendar did so, in fact.

The bottom line: The stock market is due for a wild ride in October, but its volatility is not likely to spell the end of the bull market.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 05, 2017, 08:28:38 AM
20万香港底层的真实生存状态:我还没死,就住进了棺材房 ~ 4 Oct 2017


A Hong Kong apartment sets an Asian price record, amid government curbs ~ 2 Oct 2017


Hong Kong commercial property prices triple over past decade ~ 14 Sep 2017

My week in Lucky House: the horror of Hong Kong's coffin homes ~ 29 Aug 2017


Ghost of the 1997 Crisis stalks Hong Kong's economy ~ 22 May 2017


GuocoLand - Guoco Group JV submits top bid of $1.62 bil for Beach road police station site ~ 28 Sep 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 19, 2017, 02:26:00 PM
一個大陸老師眼中的台灣 ~ 4 Jun 2017



义勇军进行曲 (March of the Volunteers)



中華民國軍歌 - 我有一支槍





Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 09, 2017, 08:26:13 AM
此战中的日军有多惨?好不容易活下来的日本人都生不如死 ~ 8 Nov 2017

二战中日军最惨的一战 20万日军几近全灭

Japan's View of the Pacific War


新几内亚战役( 英文: New Guinea Campaign)太平洋战争期间,美澳盟军于1943年6月~1944年7月在新几内亚及其附近岛屿对日军实施的进攻战役。

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 14, 2017, 09:00:32 AM
Wilmar International – Why Wilmar is my number 1 stock pick ~ 3 Feb 2014
I have invested Wilmar International since September 2012 when price was at around SGD 3.10 with exchange rate at RM 2.46.Wilmar was my first foreign investment as all this while I am buying bursa stocks.


五年前(Sep 2012),买入价是S$3.10左右,马币当时是RM2.46换S$1.00,现在是RM3.15换S$1.00。


Foreign exchange hedge
The Singapore dollar is a good hedging currency against Malaysia ringgit.

The USD-MYR currency is hovering at 4.20, the SGD-MYR currency is hovering at 3.15,past 3 months.

USD-MYR ~ 1996 to 1998


Wilmar ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, TP S$2.98

Wilmar closed with a hammer @ S$3.23 (-0.02, -0.6%) with volume done at 4.44m shares on 22 Sep 2017.

Immediate support @ S$3.15, immediate resistance @ S$3.28.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 17, 2017, 06:26:55 AM
When a lizard breaks its tail, it won't die because it can regrow its tail completely.

New Soul


At a record low, Hong Kong's penny stocks market reeks of dodgy dealings ~ 28 Jun 2017

Hong Kong small cap stock plunge wipes out US$6.1 billion in value  ~ 27 Jun 2017

The Enigma Network: 50 stocks not to own ~ 15 May 2017

Confessions of a market maker in Hong Kong’s penny stocks fiasco

July 17, 2017

The fiasco with Hong Kong’s penny stocks had been spreading like wildfire. How did it happen like this?

Let’s imagine I’m one of the professional traders whose magic flute has many penny stock investors astray, down the abyss to their personal misfortune.

But don’t blame me. I’m no different from the unsupervised child who finds the cookie jar open. I do what every kid does -- I gouge on cookies till I’m stuffed.

I work in a securities firm you see, but my boss is no ordinary broker. He’s a chong kar (莊家) – market maker. He “made” the stock price of the listed companies he controlled.

The trade craft is derived from ancient wisdom. First, make up some good news about a company. Then, the men on the right side of the room call in buy orders, while those on the left side sell them the stock, and vice versa.

The price goes up and up, until the mom-and-pop investors take notice and pile in. Next announce a massive rights issue to scare off the little shareholders, so shares can be picked up at dirt cheap prices. When the timing is right, do it all over again.

The crux is in knowing the right people. It’s a small tight circle of interesting people – legislators, casino princess, medical doctors and toy manufacturers. My boss brought me in but I was a nobody.

To be in a class of my own, I must make it big, and quickly.

My time was in 2011. Beijing had put new stock exchange listings on hold, amid a stagnant A-share market. Mainland Chinese investors were offering hundreds of millions of dollars for a listed shell company in Hong Kong.

I began to cultivate shell companies. First I found a watch trader or wine store. Then I promised the founder a cut of the gain, cooked up the number to meet the listing requirements, and listed the company on the Growth Enterprise Market. The tick-box regulators rarely said no.

I could even have my boys sign up as pre-listing investors for 49 per cent of the issues with only a few million dollars. It would look suspicious to many but not those in the Hong Kong Exchange.

Those shell companies were the equivalent of two-course meals, with the price manipulation as appetiser and the year-end disposal as the main course. The rules were friendly to the practice, so it didn’t require a master chef to prepare the meal.

Under the so-called full placement option, I simply gave the bookrunner a list of my 100 friends, to allocate shares to them. Many mainlanders were eager to loan me their name to get “asset” for their application as “capital migrants” to the city. That rule didn’t change until 2015.

Don’t the regulators check the shareholders’ list? Theoretically yes, but the phones seldom ring. With every share under my control, I can do anything to the share price, whether it’s HK$1 or HK$10.

Next I expand my empire into brokerage and money lending. Lend money to hot-headed entrepreneurs who pledge their listed companies to bet; push down the stock price; snatch control when the entrepreneurs can’t pay up or top up.

I even published my own magazine for dispensing investment advice, and hired my team of key opinion leaders online. The old trick of investment “tips” remains, only the effects have multiplied by infinity in the internet age.

By 2015, my empire had ballooned to control of more than 30 listed companies. I am finally in a class of my own.

My peers said that’s too much. It’s expensive to maintain and too big an eyesore to regulators. That’s cowards talking. Yes, I had to gear up a bit but guts and smartness define success.

A mainland buddy found me a solution: pyramid marketing, not of anti-cancer water, but asset-backed securities.

Invest 10,000 yuan in Hong Kong stocks to get 200,000 yuan in three years! Bring in two friends to get 2,000 shares in real scripts! Three times’ leverage up! Price management by a Chong Kar!

Only a mainlander could come up with these crazy slogans; they worked though. Chinese mom-and-pop investors piled in.

It was a party until the regulators shut the cookie jar. No more full placement. No more spectacular price rise. No more new money. I starved.

Dumping the shares is a no brainer. Does anyone seriously expect a Chong Kar to mind his reputation more than his money? You must be kidding me.

Shirley Yam
11 July 2017


Offshore broker’s role in Singapore penny stock crash; the eight parties had appointed the same financial adviser, Algo Capital, which operates out of a Bishan address to trade on their behalf. They had also borrowed large sums to buy substantial stakes in Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold

Offshore broker’s role in penny stock crash

By Goh Eng Yeow
Jan 15, 2014

As the new year gets under way, hope springs eternal that the penny stock market will make a strong comeback despite the bashing it received three months ago. New players are in vogue, replacing those that have fallen by the wayside after they collapsed to a fraction of their year-high price in the dramatic October crash. Traders are hopeful that the Year of the Horse will cause the stock market to gallop in price, yet at the back of their minds is one big concern: Will any penny stock revival be the real McCoy? Concerns centre on the outcome of the investigation being conducted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Singapore Exchange (SGX) over the odd trading activity surrounding the stock trio – Asiasons Capital, Blumont Group and LionGold Corp – before they crashed, wiping out over $8 billion in value in days.

There have been all sorts of rumours and allegations circulating in the market on how the three counters achieved spectacular price surges last year and their subsequent crash.

None of these rumours has been substantiated, but a court document filed here by United States online brokerage Interactive Brokers sheds some light.

Interactive has asked a court to freeze the assets of eight of its clients – six individuals and two companies – that lost almost $80 million in total from the stock debacle.

That court document makes for depressing reading. The allegation it contains seems to suggest how easy it is to subvert the local stock market using an offshore brokerage account.

It begs the question as to whether offshore brokers have put sufficient checks in place to stop a stock manipulator from using their trading platforms to manipulate prices in Singapore’s market.

How does an offshore broker check if the accounts that are opened with it are genuine or not? And on what criteria does it extend loans on the shares pledged to it as collateral for share trading?

Would the malfeasance which Interactive purportedly uncovered ever come to light, if its erstwhile clients had not failed to make good on the massive losses which they had sustained in punting the stock trio?

Interactive describes itself as an online broker catering to well-heeled individuals and institutions. It says it does not employ any human “brokers” or “advisers”. All trading is done online by customers or by independent financial advisers appointed by them.

In hindsight, this would appear to make it far easier for a person to open a trading account with Interactive Brokers than with any of the nine traditional brokerages here serving retail investors. This is because the SGX requires the client to turn up in person at the brokerage.

Interactive said it was only after the parties failed to make good their losses when the stock trio collapsed that it investigated further and found that there was something amiss.

To adhere to Singapore’s regulations, its policy has been to prevent customers, whose legal residence is in Singapore, from trading Singapore-listed stocks.

But it claimed that these parties “deliberately misled Interactive and/or engaged in multiple non-disclosures when applying to open their respective… accounts”.

The six individuals had listed themselves as Malaysians and given Malaysian residential and mailing addresses, while the two companies were listed as British ****** Island-registered entities.

But further checks after the stock trio’s crash suggested that “they are likely to be resident in Singapore and/or have a sufficient connection with Singapore”.

Interactive noted the eight parties had appointed the same financial adviser, Algo Capital Group, which operates out of a Bishan address to trade on their behalf. They had also borrowed large sums to buy substantial stakes in Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold.

But what must surely take the cake is Interactive’s belated acknowledgement that “many of the trades appear to serve no economic purpose and appear now to have been undertaken in a manner possibly to manipulate the share prices of the companies concerned”.

Interactive noted that Algo often accounted for “substantial portions of the volume of total daily trades in LionGold shares, and even exceeded 80 per cent of the total trading volume on certain days”.

The same trading pattern exists in Asiasons, where Algo’s trading volume “was as much as 67 per cent on some days”.

“(Algo) often sold a large block of shares at a given price in one or more of the (parties’) accounts, then quickly re-purchased approximately the same number of shares at the same price, putting the accounts back where they started, but giving the market the appearance that the stocks were more heavily traded than they really were,” it alleged.

Now, if any remisier is so brazen as to indulge in similar trading behaviour, he will surely be hauled up by the SGX’s market surveillance team for questioning.

The question is that since Interactive is based offshore serving foreign customers, whose responsibility is it to ensure that it is up to scratch in keeping similar market misbehaviour at bay?

Of course, it is difficult to tell how much truth there is in Interactive’s claims since its objective is to recover as much of its losses as possible.

But unless the MAS and SGX conclude their probe speedily, the uncertainties will continue to cast a pall over the market and make retail investors even more cynical about penny stocks. It is in the best interests of all to make haste on the investigation.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 18, 2017, 09:27:49 AM
How Alibaba is integrating e-commerce with brick-and-mortar shopping ~ 17 Nov 2017
Alibaba opened a new retail store where they integrated several digital technologies to make life easier for customers

Retail alert: 63 Sears and Kmart stores are closing in January 2018 ~ 3 Nov 2017

A record amount of brick and mortar stores will close in 2017 ~ 26 Oct 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 08, 2017, 11:41:47 AM
"There are 3 ways to make a living: be first, be smarter, or cheat." ~ Margin Call

The 12 signs a cheap stock is a 'Value Trap' ~ 30 Nov 2017
Stocks that look cheap may never substantially rebound.


价值陷阱(Value Trap)~ 即价值投资者(value investor) 买入低价股票想炒底,却发现该股票的价格继续往下降,而且跌的幅度比之前更厉害。

Value Trap
Definition of Value Trap: A stock that appears to be cheap because the stock has been trading at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for an extended time period. Stock traps attract investors who are looking for a bargain because these stocks are inexpensive. The trap springs when investors buy into the company at low prices and the stock never improves. Trading that occurs at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for long periods of time might indicate that the company or the entire sector is in trouble, and that stock prices may not move higher.

The free float of a listed company must be greater than 15% and the free float includes portfolio investments, nominee holdings and holdings by investment companies. A stock must also trade with a median daily turnover value of at least 0.05% of the value of its free float-adjusted shares in issue for at least 10 out of the last 12 months.

Midas ~ Bearish Bollinger Bands Breakout

Midas closed with a black marubozu @ S$0.118 (-0.016, -11.9%) with 41.2m shares done on 5 Dec 2017.

Immediate support @ S$0.111, immediate resistance @ S$0.127.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 04, 2018, 07:04:57 AM

Argentine Peso crashes most since 2015 free-float despite 600bps rate-hike ~ 3 May 2018
The Argentine Peso is the worst EMFX currency today by a significant distance.


EM FX Weekly: Big dollar keeps EM currencies under its thumb ~ 2 May 2018
CNY: USDCNY has backed up to the high end of the very narrow 6.25-6.35 range established since February of this year. There has been no signalling from China on currency policy intent outside of a declaration some time ago that the country would not seek currency devaluation as a policy option. The weaker CNY has seen the most China-linked exporters’ currencies (the quartet of KRW, MYR, THB and SGD) weakening more or less in lock step with the move over the last month. We’ll watch the top of the range in USDCNY with considerable interest in the event the USD continues to strengthen for signs that China is allowing more exchange rate dynamism.

Argentina: What's next after a massive rate hike? ~ 30 Apr 2018

Argentine bakers give away 5 tons of bread in protest against rate hikes ~ 25 Apr 2018
The bakers also denounced a sharp recent rise in the price of their main ingredient, wheat flour, saying the cost of that product had climbed by more than 100% in the past two weeks. The price increases affect common expenses at buildings where bakers' stores are located, Bilanski said, adding that some owners have seen their electricity bills rise from 2,500 pesos (some $122) to 25,000 pesos (some $1,222) in a period of three years.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 09, 2018, 11:46:58 AM
Indonesia's Q1 GDP growth slows, consumption remains weak ~ 7 May 2018

The Salim Group and land conflicts around West Papua ~ 7 Feb 2018


Indonesia's Indofood rattles investors by buying land from CEO

Food giant's $164 million payout is equal to 16.5% of its cash holdings

By Wataru Suzuki
June 14, 2017 11:03 pm JST

JAKARTA -- Indonesian food giant Indofood Sukses Makmur's 2.2 trillion rupiah ($164 million) purchase of land in Jakarta from its chief executive, billionaire tycoon Anthoni Salim, is raising fresh questions over corporate governance in a country where close-knit families wield strong influence over group companies.

The deal, announced on June 8 by Hong Kong-listed First Pacific, Indofood's parent company, had sent Indofood's stock price 5% lower by June 13, as investors considered the additional financial burden. The stock rose 0.9% on Wednesday, and is still up 8% so far this year.

The transaction involves Aston Inti Makmur, an Indofood subsidiary, buying six plots of land in Penjaringan, North Jakarta, with a total area of 42,877 sq. meters for 51 million rupiah per sq. meter. The sellers are Anthoni Salim and Adithya Suramitra, a local company that he owns.

Indofood group subsidiary Salim Ivomas Pratama already uses the land to operate cooking oil facilities. First Pacific said Anthoni Salim had been leasing the property to Salim Ivomas -- some of it for free -- but that after he received an offer from "an independent third party," he gave Indofood a priority offer to buy it.

Indofood "recognizes the importance of the availability of the purchased lands ... to continue its cooking oil production business and decided to accept the offer," First Pacific said.

The deal, which surprised analysts, highlights the influence that controlling shareholders can have over the companies they own, and raises questions over the ability of such businesses to protect the interests of minority shareholders. First Pacific said Anthoni Salim abstained from voting on the acquisition. But Indofood's board of directors includes his son, Axton Salim, and Franciscus Welirang, who is married to Anthoni Salim's sister.

"There have been major improvements in corporate governance in Indonesia," said Yuri Sato, executive vice president at the Japan External Trade Organization. "But when the owner and manager are the same, there are limits to checks and balances."

Anthoni Salim is the second-generation chief executive of Salim Group, considered Indonesia's largest conglomerate, with interests spanning food, retail, automobiles and more. He is the largest shareholder in First Pacific. While some individual companies such as Indofood are publicly listed, the group's overall financials are nearly impossible to grasp due to complex holding structures.

The acquisition price of 2.2 trillion rupiah is equal to 16.5% of Indofood's cash on hand as of March, according to its financial statement. The "purchase price does not look cheap considering the location," local brokerage Mandiri Sekuritas said in a research note on June 9. First Pacific said the land's valuation was provided by "an independent valuer."

Sato said it is unlikely that Anthoni Salim would conduct a deal that would jeopardize Indofood -- one of the world's largest producers of instant noodles -- because the company is Salim Group's crown jewel. She acknowledged that, "There are merits of a structure in which ownership and management are not separated."

Indofood did not respond to requests for comment, and Anthoni Salim could not be reached for comment.

IndoAgri ~ Trading in a rectangle, downside biased

IndoAgri closed with a four-price doji @ S$0.305 (+0.002, +0.7%) with 120,000 shares done on 4 May 2018.

Immediate support @ S$0.295, immediate resistance @ S$0.31.


IndoAgri (weekly) ~ Bearish symmetrical triangle breakout, Measured Target S$0.245



Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 14, 2018, 07:39:21 AM
Zuolun bro, a lot of pple in forum still buying singtel

Singtel's Q4 net profit is likely to continue drag down by it's regional affiliates

  • Singtel's Q4 net profit is likely to continue hit by currency translation losses as all its regional affiliates in emerging markets are facing depreciating currencies.
  • Retail Investors are buying Singtel shares to bail-out longterm institutional investors and various stock broking firm's bosses who are stuck in Singtel at high prices,
  • Longterm institutional investors have not stopped dumping Singtel shares since Henderson Global’s Asia funds cut its stake in Singtel, last Apr 2017.
  • Longterm institutional investor, Qatar Foundation had dumped its entire 5% stake in Bharti Airtel for $1.48 billion, last Nov 2017.

Idea, Bharti Airtel, RComm down 4-13% after Jio enters postpaid market ~ 12 May 2018

Bharti Airtel closed @ RS 386.05 on 11 May 2018.


TPG closed @ A$5.78 on 11 May 2018.


Telstra closed @ A$3.20  on 11 May 2018.


Singtel closed @ S$3.55 on 11 May 2018.


In technical analysis, when a stock is in a bear-market territory, the last low will be retested and the share price will move much further down, forming a new record low.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 14, 2018, 09:40:02 AM
Singapore's old HDB flats: Assets losing their value? ~ 13 May 2018
Public interest in 99-year HDB leases stirred when owners of private residences along Lorong 3 Geylang were given notice that their properties must be returned to SLA when their land leases expire in 2020.


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 29, 2018, 10:29:43 AM
Facebook post by Inderjit Singh ~  26 July 2018 at 3:17 PM

CareShield Life: Government should not use market prices as a benchmark for policy premiums

Recently the press interviewed me on the Careshield Debate. I am adding my views to this debate by sharing my answers to the questions I was asked.

Q : What are some possible reasons for the intense public reaction to the Careshield Life premiums, as compared to other gender-differentiated policies? For instance, CPF Life also has gender-differentiated pay outs.

A : There is a difference between CPF Life and Careshield – for CPF Life, the premium paid is the same for both genders while for Careshield there is a big difference in premiums to be paid. So, people are looking at the cost today versus a pay out some time in the future. Despite there being obvious benefits in the future, for many the debate is much more intense because they may be sensitive to cost due to the already high cost of living and, so, any additional costs can be sensitive. Increasingly more Singaporeans are finding the cost of living beyond what they can afford comfortably.

Q : What are the reasons behind why these economic or seemingly rational explanations do not seem to satisfy certain groups among the public?

A : While actuarially fair, there are 2 reasons why people are unhappy;

1. Since this scheme will be run by the government, and not a private insurance company, there are some perception problems. For one, people see the government as a service provider to serve all Singaporeans equally. Also, they do not think that the government should be making a profit from any schemes that they provide to Singaporeans. So, they are not happy if they think that this is being run as a 100% market driven thing. In any case, the government has the capacity to do this, without it being market driven, and still not come out negative because the past scheme showed that the government collected $3b and paid out only a negligible amount in claims.

2. This is a compulsory scheme with an opt-out option. Some people are unhappy that this being a compulsory scheme is being is following market principles strictly, and that there must be some concessions made for a compulsory scheme.

Q : In your view, what are the most compelling reasons (if any) for making the Careshield premiums gender-neutral?

A : I feel the government should make this scheme gender neutral for two reasons. First government is not a private sector company and government should provide some of these services to the public at concessions. The government source of revenue for Careshield and CPF Life and other such schemes is not just through the collection of premiums but also through the taxes Singaporeans pay and also from the returns of our sovereign wealth fund – these are all the peoples’ resources.

So as a government, some services should be provided at a subsidy because citizens are already contributing to government revenues in many other ways. There must be something called citizens’ privilege and having a gender neutral Careshield and equal CPF Life pay out may be the right thing for the government to do. Furthermore, based on past records, the government is net positive and not negative in the past.

Q : Will the government succeed in convincing the public? How could the government have handled this better?

A : The government has a tough task to convince the public as the cost impact is very high. Especially some young Singaporeans who believe that they can take care of themselves and may not like a compulsory scheme that will cost them high.

The 2 possible ways the government could have handled this situation better:

1. Show Singaporeans what the actual cost of coverage is and then decide to have a permanent citizens subsidy to be below the actual cost with women getting a higher subsidy.

2. Government could have just averaged the cost of the genders and come up with one premium for both genders – for men slightly higher than what has been announced and for women slightly lower. This would have completely avoided the debate for a scheme that may actually be a very useful one for everyone in the future.

Bottomline is leaders should exercise greater political judgement in policy-making. The civil servants have presented to the political leaders a logical scheme based on what a market driven approach would look like. But the government is not a company and we cannot apply what may seem logical in a market driven system to policies affecting the lives of citizens the government was elected to serve. Our leaders need to be able to take what the civil servants present to them and fine tune whatever policy or scheme they want to implement to improve the lives of the majority of Singaporeans.

I see the debate on charging school teachers for parking in schools in the same context – the idea is logical, to have a clean wage system and the charges teachers have to pay are close to the market rates. But in reality, schools are not public car parks, so market rates should not apply. So, we either charge teacher a token amount only or just don’t charge them. This requires political judgement. I guess this government works on pragmatism more than politics but sometimes when it is the time to convince the public to buy-into a national scheme or idea, some political acumen never hurts.

Introduction to CareShield Life (终身护保计划) ~ 9 Jul 2018

一篇文章带你理清新加坡政府刚推出的终身护保计划 ~ 29 May 2018

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 09, 2018, 02:52:26 PM
截至8月6日,俄罗斯谷物收获产量已超5400万吨(54 million tons) ~ 9 Aug 2018


Germany's grains crop lowest in 24 years after drought ~ 8 Aug 2018
Trump administration slaps more sanctions on Russia after Skripal poisonings ~ 8 Aug 2018

Ruble heads toward 20-month low as sanctions bill jolts Russia ~ 8 Aug 2018
The Russian ruble slid 2.2% to 64.91 per dollar on 8 Aug 2018. The Russian government only managed to sell half the amount planned in a bond auction on 8 Aug 2018 as borrowing costs jumped to the highest level in more than a year. The cost of insuring dollar debt against default through credit-default swaps jumped to a two-month high of 149 basis points. Banking stocks were the biggest drag on the benchmark stock index, which slid 1%.


U.S. farmers brace for bitter harvest under Trump's trade war ~ 7 Aug 2018
Last week, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed total soybean exports to China for the marketing year ending this month were down about 20% compared to last year, a sizable drop given that soybeans are the biggest U.S. farm export to China. Total pork exports to China for the calendar year were down nearly 60%.

EU counts losses as Russia marks 4th anniversary of embargo on western food ~ 7 Aug 2018
The food embargo banned the imports of meat, fish and seafood, vegetables, fruit and dairy products from the EU countries, the United States and several other states. The ban has recently been prolonged until the end of 2019.


Why China’s pork producers can survive without US soybeans ~ 3 Aug 2018


Russia flexes its agricultural muscles ~ 1 Aug 2018


Unprecedented: The heatwave causing havoc across the globe ~ 30 Jul 2018


Germany's record drought could cause 'billions' in losses for farmers ~ 29 Jul 2018


Soybean giant Brazil swoops on US crop as China trade war punctures prices ~ 20 Jul 2018
Who’s winning the US-China trade war? When it comes to soybeans, the answer is Brazil. The South American nation is capitalising on the strife caused by US President Donald Trump’s trade war to profit from both China and America in soybean trade.


美货轮「飞马峰号」(Peak Pegasus)狂飙躲关税失败,8万吨黄豆「全倒海喂鱼」! ~ 15 Jul 2018


China's multi-storey hog hotels elevate industrial farms to new levels ~ 14 May 2018

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 15, 2018, 03:51:14 PM
Don't cry for me Argentina

Argentina: Convertibility plan

Argentina rate hike comes after currency tumbles ~ 14 Aug 2018
Argentina’s central bank to hike its benchmark rate to 45% from 40% as the country's peso is pressured by Turkey's currency crisis.

USD/ARS: Argentine peso settles after 5% rate increase ~ 14 Aug 2018
The US$ has started to ease lower against the Argentine peso, with price moving below the $30.00 level, after the USD/ARS pair spiked to a record $31.15 exchange rate on Monday over emerging market contagion fears. The central bank of Argentina hiked interest 5% to stem the Peso’s decline, bringing the official rate of interest to a stunning 45%.



Argentine Peso crashes most since 2015 free-float despite 600bps rate-hike ~ 3 May 2018
The Argentine Peso is the worst EMFX currency today by a significant distance.


EM FX Weekly: Big dollar keeps EM currencies under its thumb ~ 2 May 2018
CNY: USDCNY has backed up to the high end of the very narrow 6.25-6.35 range established since February of this year. There has been no signalling from China on currency policy intent outside of a declaration some time ago that the country would not seek currency devaluation as a policy option. The weaker CNY has seen the most China-linked exporters’ currencies (the quartet of KRW, MYR, THB and SGD) weakening more or less in lock step with the move over the last month. We’ll watch the top of the range in USDCNY with considerable interest in the event the USD continues to strengthen for signs that China is allowing more exchange rate dynamism.

Argentina: What's next after a massive rate hike? ~ 30 Apr 2018

Argentine bakers give away 5 tons of bread in protest against rate hikes ~ 25 Apr 2018
The bakers also denounced a sharp recent rise in the price of their main ingredient, wheat flour, saying the cost of that product had climbed by more than 100% in the past two weeks. The price increases affect common expenses at buildings where bakers' stores are located, Bilanski said, adding that some owners have seen their electricity bills rise from 2,500 pesos (some $122) to 25,000 pesos (some $1,222) in a period of three years.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: Zhorlok on January 21, 2019, 04:07:27 PM
This year was not the best for Argentinean economy. I just don’t see right now the way to get out from huge inflatory spiral that is spiking every day. Just think that official interest rate is 45%!? Which economy can survive that?
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 20, 2019, 04:01:10 PM
● 纳吉任期末端因国债攀天,不惜包抄企业富豪和中小型商家追查所得税,大权在握操生死时期忘记积德本分。
● 被纳吉革除职位的前总检察司、前反贪会高管和退休资政都纷纷受邀归队,日以继夜审查前朝黑幕和烂账,以期达致希联百日新政诺言。

Genting Malaysia appealing amended tax deal ~ 25 Jan 2019

Ex-Goldman Sachs banker charged in 1MDB case will be sent to the United States ~ 15 Feb 2019
Goldman (GS) orchestrated three large bond offerings for 1MDB in 2012 and 2013. The bond sales, which raised a total of $6.5 billion, earned Goldman Sachs $600 million in fees.

The 1MDB deals that continue to haunt Goldman Sachs ~16 Nov 2018
The three bond deals took place in 2012 and 2013, and the debt is more than halfway to maturity.

1. What exactly did Goldman do?

Genting Berhad : The companies Switzerland says are linked to Malaysia's 1MDB scandal ~ 30 Jan 2016
Genting Group and Tanjong: A Journal examination in June last year showed how 1MDB had paid what appeared to be an inflated price for a power plant owned by Genting, a conglomerate with interests in gambling and plantations. A unit of Genting then donated millions of dollars to a foundation chaired by Mr. Najib that was spent on schools and other projects that Mr. Najib was able to tout as he campaigned for elections in 2013. A spokeswoman for Genting declined to comment on the allegations, and Mr. Najib declined to address them.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: Xieye on March 10, 2019, 03:57:08 AM
Another “advisory” from Goldman. I don’t know if somebody was counting in how many scandals this bank was included? It seems that they have interesting business model by making trade off between earnings from project and potential charges
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on March 30, 2019, 11:51:27 AM
Recharged bulls give stocks, commodities flying start to year ~ 30 Mar 2019
What goes down must come up! Three months after one of the worst years on record, investors have seen world stocks and key commodity markets roar back with their best first quarter since 2012. The numbers are quite astonishing. The value of MSCI's world share index has surged US$6 trillion. Wall Street is up 13%, Europe 12% and China has jumped 25%, which is almost everything it lost last year and has only been bettered by Colombia.


Sell-off roils India stocks on growth concerns ~ 26 Mar 2019
A global stocks sell-off that started in the US last Friday has extended to Indian equities. US futures signalled further declines after a range of economic data dimmed the outlook for global growth. The SP BSE Sensex fell 0.9% to 37,819.90 as of 10:13am in Mumbai yesterday, declining for a second session even after it capped five straight weeks of gains through last Friday. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also dropped 0.9%.


China's wildest stock gauge is now ready for its close up ~ 1 Mar 2019
When MSCI Inc. decided to expand the weighting of China equities in its benchmark indexes, it also announced it would add ChiNext Index members for the first time, something MSCI said it would consider last year. The decision involving 27 stocks means index-tracking investors will be obliged to hold them.


Share-backed loans rock India's founder-led firms

Tighter credit, debt raise specter of defaults

By Dhanya Ann Thoppil
February 15, 2019 16:34 JST

MUMBAI (NewsRise) -- As liquidity tightens, investors in India are grappling with the growing risk posed by founder-led companies that are laden with debt and have a high proportion of shares pledged as collateral for loans.

The latest case to unsettle the market concerns Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, which is led by Anil Ambani, younger brother of Asia's richest man, Mukesh. Over the course of four trading sessions early in February, the group's companies lost nearly 55% of their collective market capitalization as lenders L&T Finance and Edelweiss Group dumped pledged shares worth 4 billion rupees ($56 million).

The selling came after group company Reliance Communications, which has $7 billion in debt, filed for insolvency. That set off a chain reaction, weakening share prices across the group and eroding the value of the pledged shares. According to the lenders, the company did not heed calls to top up collateral.

The concern now is that more companies may find it difficult to repay debt leading to a vicious cycle of falling share prices and collateral values and further selling of pledged stock by creditors. Since founders tend to hold at least 51% of a company, the impact of such forced sales can be profound, extending to ownership changes. Other factors such as a slowing economy, an equities market struggling for direction and heightened risk aversion ahead of general elections could amplify the knock-on effects.

Market watchers find many similarities with China in the recent developments. Late last year, the massive amounts of shares pledged for loans by small and medium Chinese companies in a credit-short economy roiled markets on the mainland, triggering calls for state help.

In India, the extent of such borrowing, which allows creditors to sell the shares if the company is unable to meet minimum requirements, is much smaller. Excluding government-owned companies, about 4% of founders' stock worth $26 billion is pledged, according to a recent CLSA report. This compares with 50% of Chinese small and medium stocks pledged at the peak in March 2018.

However, the Indian companies hit by talk of default and lenders invoking their pledges have been major ones so far. The ensuing developments and media reports have not only underscored the need for more due diligence by investors but also raised questions about transparency and governance especially as many large groups contain a complex web of listed and unlisted companies with varying standards.

In January, a report alleging fraud at Essel Group led to a more than 26% fall in the stock of unit Zee Entertainment Enterprises, India's largest media company, as lenders sold pledged shares. Sister concern Dish TV India, a cable operator, lost 33%. Zee Entertainment later said its creditors had agreed that they would not sell any more shares until September, no matter the price, as it tried to find a strategic investor.

Meanwhile, India's fraud investigators are probing Nityank Infrapower, an obscure firm which the media report identified as linked to Essel Group, for the large deposits it made soon after New Delhi withdrew high-value cash from the market in 2016. Essel Group has denied any connection to the company.

The practice of share pledging is common globally and does not pose a systemic risk, say analysts.

Anil Gupta, head of the finance sector at ratings agency ICRA, said the recent problems are because founders are unable to roll over their loans against securities as lenders have become wary.

Credit has tightened partly because of the lending curbs imposed on banks in a bid to reduce their bad loans. The crisis last August at leading shadow bank Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services, which missed payments on many debt obligations, has aggravated the issue by causing a liquidity crunch and raising short-term borrowing costs.

Although the Reserve Bank of India recently cut rates and announced some relaxation of curbs on banks, more needs to be done to improve liquidity, say observers.

Pranav Haldea, chief executive of PRIME Data Base, pointed out that in some instances, founders have pledged as much as their entire stake, increasing the company's vulnerability. "There should be a cap on the proportion of shares a founder can pledge," he said.

According to PRIME, founders of 214 companies on the National Stock Exchange have pledged more than 50% of their holdings. Big names top the list by the value of shares pledged, including Adani Ports, led by tycoon Gautam Adani who founded the Adani Group, Tata Consultancy Services, the country's largest outsourcing company controlled by the Tata Group, and JSW Steel, a leading steel maker run by the Jindal family.

Over at Suzlon Energy, a renewable power firm whose stock slumped 28% last week amid rumors of a debt default, founders had pledged 77% of their shares at the end of last year. The company has denied any debt default.

On Monday, shares of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise dropped 11% even after the company reported better-than-expected results, as investors fretted over its move last month to increase the proportion of pledged shares by 4% to 75%.

In a conference call with analysts, the company tried to allay investor concerns saying it would cut the proportion of pledged shares by 60% over the next six months by selling a stake in its insurance unit and another asset.

Shenzhen exchange says Chinese listed companies’ pledged-share risk under control ~ 21 Jan 2019
The risks to China stock markets from pledged shares – which led to jaw-dropping collapses in share prices on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges last year – are under control, authorities said.

"Forced Selling" 是「逼仓」的意思。

Forced Selling (Forced Liquidation)
Forced selling or forced liquidation usually entails the involuntary sale of assets or securities to create liquidity in the event of an uncontrollable or unforeseen situation.

Seacera (7073) ~ Bullish Rounding Bottom, strong resistance @ RM0.50

Seacera closed with a white marubozu @ RM0.34 (+0.015, +4.62%) with 37.4m shares done on 1 Mar 2019

Immediate support @ RM0.305, immediate resistance @ RM0.375.


‘Seacera’s major shareholders forced to sell stakes by banks, brokers’ ~ 30 Oct 2018

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on March 30, 2019, 01:38:45 PM
Singapore may pay $0 for water plant that cost investors millions ~ 22 Mar 2019

Loot a burning house (趁火打劫)


The CLOB Revisted

Is there an end in sight?

October 26, 1999

If there is one business story in Southeast Asia that simply refuses to go away, it is the CLOB crisis. For those who have been on the moon for the past 14 months and have missed all the action, let me recap: CLOB stands for Central Limit Order Book, a secondary market in Singapore that traded mainly Malaysian stocks. In its heyday, transactions on the CLOB far exceeded the transaction volumes for Singapore shares listed on the main board of the Singapore Stock Exchange. At one time market value of CLOB shares was between US$15 and $20 billion. During the Crisis, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir and his associates accused Singaporeans and CLOB shareholders of subverting the Malaysian economy. In September of last year, when Mahathir imposed capital controls and pegged the Ringgit at 3.80 to the dollar he also banned the trading of Malaysian shares overseas -- effectively pulling the rug out from under CLOB. Since then 180,000 shareholders holding $4.3 billion in Malaysian shares listed on CLOB have not been able to trade their shares.

Malaysia now says CLOB was an illegal market -- even though Malaysians accounted for 20% of total CLOB trading and two Malaysian-controlled brokerages were among the biggest players in the CLOB market. Malaysia doesn't want CLOB shareholders to get their shares back because it believes they will immediately sell them and that will result in the depletion of $4.3 billion in foreign exchange reserves. But by denying the CLOB shareholders their right to sell the shares, Malaysia has sent the wrong signals to global investors who are encouraged by Kuala Lumpur's economic recovery story and want to invest in the bourse.The CLOB overhang is keeping them away. Realizing that the issue is hurting Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur has been at pains to resolve it. The only problem: some troubled Malaysian companies see the resolution of CLOB as a good opportunity to make money.

In the past six months, five officially-backed schemes to resolve the stalemate have surfaced and have all been rejected by CLOB shareholders. Normally, the Singapore government would not intervene in something like this, but because 180,000 or so of its 3 million citizens are involved Singapore leaders have been forced to speak out. Singaporeans want a fair and equitable solution to CLOB. They want Malaysian regulators to either a) hand the shares back to their rightful owners so that they can trade them whenever they like; or b) allow an entity -- like the Tracker Fund that Hong Kong has just launched following its own share-buying binge last year -- to buy out shares at market value.

Last week, United Engineers (Malaysia) or UEM -- a Malaysian construction and infrastructure group controlled by Halim Saad, a close friend and former business associate of Malaysian Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin -- unveiled yet another plan to entice CLOB shareholders to part with their shares. The buzz in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur is that a final solution could now be near.

Before I go any further, let me bring you up to date with all the CLOB schemes that have failed. Earlier this year, Singaporean businessman Akbar Khan, a horseriding pal of Prime Minister Mahathir and a close friend and associate of Daim, unveiled a plan to buy all the CLOB shares from Singaporeans at up to a 70% discount to the then-prevailing market price. The response was overwhelming: NO. Who in his right mind would want to sell shares at a 70% discount to the prevailing market price? Next were two funds -- one controlled by Khan, another controlled by the family of Mahathir's long-time friend and mate Tunku Abdullah of Melewar Group. They too offered to buy the CLOB shares at a discount, albeit a smaller one. Next up: a proposal by UEM and Telekom Malaysia (the state-controlled listed dominant phone company) to buy CLOB shares at 25% discount for most shares. Investors responded by hammering Telekom stock despite its own improving fundamentals. The Malaysian government, which owns over 70% of Telekom, has been trying for months to sell 30% of its shares to Japanese phone giant NTT (it would use the proceeds to reduce the budget deficit and help the economy). NTT has apparently been telling the Malaysians they like Telekom but don't understand why a fixed line telecommunications company is interested in buying CLOB shares. Evidently Telecom started wondering too, and last week, it officially pulled out of the CLOB-share deal. That allowed UEM to launch yet another scheme to buy CLOB shares. The big question: Is this any different from the all those other deals? For one thing thing, the personalities haven't changed. UEM is controlled by Halim Saad who recently married Khan's niece in Singapore. So almost every CLOB deal has involved either Khan or Halim Saad.

But UEM officials say CLOB shareholders, instead of listening to analysts and investment bankers or reading commentaries in biased foreign media, should now take a serious look at the latest plan. On the face of it, the plan does look different. What UEM has done is to break up the CLOB shares, comprising of stocks in 146 companies, into four separate groups in order of stock quality. At the top tier, UEM will offer to buy shares at the prevailing market price. Second tier stocks will be purchased at a mere 10% discount. But third and fourth tier stocks will be purchased at 40% to 80% discount to the current market price. In reality while the proposal looks attractive for the handful of CLOB shareholders holding top-tier stocks, it undervalues the stocks most other CLOB shareholders own.

Analysts say even the holders of top-tier stocks are actually getting a bad deal. First, even though their stocks are repurchased at prevailing market prices, they will not be offered cash but shares of UEM. The problem is that UEM stock has actually been falling in recent months. Moreover, UEM is issuing more shares at a huge 30% premium to its current stock price to pay those CLOB holders. According to analysts, the flood of new UEM scrip will depress the UEM share price even more. One Kuala Lumpur analyst has worked out that if all CLOB shareholders agree to the proposal, fair value for UEM stock could go 20% below its current price of around Ringgit 6.50 a share.

So yes, I expect another resounding NO from CLOB shareholders to the latest proposal. But I don't expect the CLOB issue to fade from the headlines. I am told that Malaysian authorities have been sounding out their Singapore counterparts on other proposals. One of them is to let the Singapore Government Investment Corporation, or GIC, in on the next CLOB share-purchase scheme. This will dispel the notion that politically well-connected Malaysian firms are out to make a buck at the expense of middle class Singapore investors who had invested their nest eggs in Malaysia. But if GIC (along with its impeccable reputation) is to come in, it would demand minimum discounts and a fairer approach. Kuala Lumpur analysts say that even if GIC refuses to participate in a new scheme, there are several other proposals under consideration -- all with smaller discounts, all appealing and attractive. Singaporeans would like what they see, KL market watchers say.

Maybe they will; maybe they won't. Why not just hand the shares back to their rightful owners? Prime Minister Mahathir himself says Malaysia's foreign exchange reserves are now over US$32 billion. An additional $4.3 billion fleeing Malaysian shores would hardly make a dent. So why not let the market do all the talking and relegate the unfortunate episode to history? The removal of the CLOB overhang could actually spur the Kuala Lumpur bourse and bring back some of those foreign investors who have spent much of the past year sitting on the fence. In fact, that sounds like a win-win strategy for both Malaysia and CLOB shareholders.

International business, Singaporeans wait for a stock freeze in Malaysia to melt

By Wayne Arnold
July 9, 1999

Historic rivalries and a politically charged stalemate between this city's stock exchange and its counterpart in neighboring Malaysia are teaching investors here a new twist in the time-honored investment strategy of buy and hold.

Until Malaysia imposed capital controls last September, the Stock Exchange of Singapore handled a lively over-the-counter trade in Malaysian issues. Often, more Malaysian shares changed hands than Singaporean shares did.

But in September, Malaysia outlawed trade of its companies' shares off-shore as part of efforts to keep money inside the country. That left 172,000 investors in Singapore's so-called Central Limit Order Book, or Clob, as the market is known, caught with nearly $4 billion in shares they could not sell -- ''Clobbered'' as headline writers quickly punned.

Since then, the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Singapore have clashed about how to return the shares to the Malaysian marketplace.

Newspapers here reported today that the Singapore exchange had sent a plan to the Kuala Lumpur exchange that proposes staggering the release of the shares in Kuala Lumpur to reduce chances of a shock wave of selling on Malaysia's newly buoyant market. Neither exchange would comment on the reports.

But such a plan is unlikely to solve the problem of the Clob shares, part of a larger dispute that has already touched air, water and railway links between the two nations, which were both created during the British Empire's breakup in the 1960's.

''Clob is a four-letter word,'' says Azman Mokhtar, head of Malaysian research at Salomon Smith Barney. ''Malaysian authorities hold the view that it was an illegal exchange.''

Complicating matters, Clob shares have in theory risen in value since being frozen. Malaysia's benchmark stock index has more than tripled since controls were imposed, and Malaysian authorities fear what might happen if so many investors suddenly had the chance to sell.

Malaysia has proposed that Singapore shareholders swap their Clob shares, which represent 104 Malaysian companies, for nonvoting shares in two Government-linked companies, Telekom Malaysia and United Engineers (Malaysia) Bhd. The shareholders object because it would require them to accept the equivalent of a 42 percent discount.

''It's unfair,'' said Chia Yeng Boo, a 52-year-old Singaporean who has owned his Malaysian shares longer than he can remember, but now considers them ''a total write-off.''

The Clob dispute is about people like Mr. Chia, small-time local investors who bought their first Malaysian shares a decade or more ago. But it also has implications for Malaysian efforts to woo back foreign investors unsettled by the Government's financial meddling.

''Everyone's watching what's going on here and how it's going to be resolved,'' said David Lum, who advises American clients as director of banking and strategy at Prudential-Bache Securities in Singapore.

Singapore and Malaysia struck out together from under British rule as the Federation of Malaysia, but differences between the Malay-led Government in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore's predominantly ethnic Chinese politicians led to a split in 1965. The two countries' stock exchanges did not split until 1973; even then, they kept listing each other's stocks.

In 1990, a more assertive Kuala Lumpur exchange ordered all Malaysian companies to shed their Singapore listings. The move was seen as potentially devastating to Singapore's financial industry: though Singapore was the dominant market, most of its stocks were Malaysian.

Singapore's exchange blunted the impact by setting up Clob, to let investors in Singapore trade foreign shares the way investors in New York can trade some foreign stocks as American depository receipts.

Malaysia never approved of Clob. ''We've objected since 1990,'' Mohamed Azam Ali, a Kuala Lumpur exchange spokesman, said.

Malaysia decided it could no longer tolerate Clob last year, when the Government imposed economic changes that banned outflows of its currency. That meant closing the back door Clob had provided. ''You can't have capital controls if you have this loophole,'' Mr. Azman said.

The move further strained relations between the two nations: bickering over a Malaysian railway immigration post in Singapore had already escalated into disputes about air and sea lanes. Last year, when Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia visited Johor Bahru, a city across a causeway from Singapore, residents shouted ''cut! cut! cut!'' referring to the water Malaysia pipes to Singapore.

Most investors snubbed an offer in May to sell Clob stocks to a friend of Malaysia's finance minister at what the Singapore exchange called half the market value. Other plans to swap stock for shares in offshore trusts also seem to have fizzled.

Perhaps the only firm indication of what Malaysia will accept comes from Prime Minister Mahathir, who has accused Clob investors of contributing to the Malaysian market's fall last year. ''I don't think it is morally right,'' he was quoted as saying in May, ''for them to gain benefit from something they didn't help achieve.''

Singapore has a moral responsibility to CLOB investors: Malaysian politician

Agence France-Presse in Singapore
May 13, 1999.

A MALAYSIAN politician argued Thursday that Singapore's government had a moral responsibility toward investors in the city-state stuck with frozen Malaysian shares.

Singapore was forced to stop over-the-counter trading in the shares after eight years when Malaysia imposed capital controls in September, leaving in limbo tens of thousands of Singaporeans who still owned Malaysian shares.

Abdul Azim Mohd Zabidi, a member of the ruling UMNO party, argued the over-the-counter market called Central Limit Order Book International had been set up with the tacit approval of Singapore authorities.

"When Malaysia imposed selective capital controls on Sept 1, 1998 and announced other measures that made it impossible for CLOB to continue its operations, this would seem to be a case of market failure.

"Given Singapore authorities' pride in their efficiency, organisational skills and meticulous planning, it is difficult to believe the Singapore authorities made no plans nor did they allocate a budget for such contingencies," Abdul Azim was quoted as saying by the official Bernama news agency.

Abdul Azim also said the Malaysia had made known its displeasure regarding CLOB's existence, the Singapore authorities must have had a reasonable expectation that Kuala Lumpur would try to put an end to the market.

"It is therefore highly inappropriate for Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong to try and disclaim moral responsibility for CLOB."

"Assuming all his arguments are valid -- that CLOB was an over-the-counter trading facility, that its shares were not listed on the Singapore stock exchange and the shares were not subject to Singapore's disclosure rules or corporate government standards -- the fact remains that Singapore was the mid-wife to CLOB's birth.

"The umblical cord may have been severed, but a mid-wife cannot deny her role in the delivery process," said Abdul Azim.

Some 100 Malaysian issues were traded under CLOB until September 15 last year, when trading ceased after Malaysia imposed the capital controls.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 02, 2019, 10:29:53 AM
Lim explains Ekovest’s investment in his loss-making plantation ops ~ 20 Mar 2019
Ekovest’s 24.23% stake acquisition of PLS Plantations from its controlling shareholder Lim for RM76.5 million in cash raised eyebrows. It begs the question: Why would a construction outfit venture into oil palm and durian plantations?

Ekovest is in a deep bear market (LL, LH), expect the share price to move much further down, forming a new record low.

Ekovest ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP RM0.415, next TP RM0.31

Ekovest closed with a doji unchanged @ RM0.495 with 6.20m shares done on 29 Mar 2019.

Immediate support @ RM0.46, immediate resistance @ RM0.52.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 05, 2019, 02:17:52 PM
劉青雲 教識你證交所運作,股權,股價,經紀,黑市買賣,假消息

中澳集团破产清算案真相调查 ~ 5 Apr 2019

百億團貸網爆雷 大陸鴨王張洪波也破產 ~ on 2 Apr 2019

山东德州首富遭当局诱捕 百亿资产充公 ~ 31 Mar 2019


Hyflux Saga – Who killed Hyflux? ~ on 1 Apr 2019

Minister Masagos on Hyflux's challenges with Tuaspring desalination plant ~ on 1 Apr 2019

In Parliament: Govt will not use taxpayers’ money to bail out Hyflux investors ~ on 1 Apr 2019

Protestor at Hong Lim: We invested in Hyflux because “Temasek had invested” ~ 31 Mar 2019

PUB ready to take over desalination plant at zero dollars if Hyflux's Tuaspring does not resolve defaults ~ 22 Mar 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 10, 2019, 06:55:32 AM
Hyflux default bad news for S'pore bond market: S&P ~ 10 Apr 2019
More defaults may occur as lending conditions turn less favourable: Credit ratings agency

DBS complied with rules as issue manager of Hyflux perps in 2016: MAS  ~ 8 Apr 2019
The Monetary Authority of Singapore says that its supervisory reviews to date have not uncovered any impropriety on the part of DBS when performing its roles as both issue manager and distributor of Hyflux perpetual securities in 2016.

Hyflux saga: Flood of questions over debt debacle ~ 7 Apr 2019
An investor, who asked to be identified as Mr S.G. David, says: "Many of us want to sue Olivia Lum, the board of directors, the auditor and the banks. What we are asking is for the regulator to investigate and find out if there were any breaches committed. With this, we can get our recovery from the personal wealth of Olivia Lum, the board of directors, the issuer, auditor and the banks. We believe we have a case."


Board Director of Temasek’s subsidiary ok with Hyflux CEO getting large remuneration ~ 2 Apr 2019
In 2017, when Hyflux reported losses of $115.6 million, Ms Lum received between $750,000 and $1 million in salary, benefits and bonuses, SIAS said. “How was Hyflux able to justify such large remuneration given (its) financial position and the performance of (its) businesses and assets?” SIAS asked, questioning as well if there has been an independent investigation on the role of key executives in the firm’s collapse. As it turns out, the person who heads the Board’s Remuneration Committee in Hyflux is Gay Chee Cheong, who is also a member of the Nominating, Audit and Investment Committees. Gay Chee Cheong sits on the board of both Hyflux and Heliconia Capital Management, a wholly owned subsidiary of Temasek Holdings.


Total compliance in financial reporting, but was it misleading? ~ 15 Mar 2019
The chart below compares the company’s reported net gearing and our adjusted net gearing, if we simply reclassified the perpetual securities as liabilities. Should we also make adjustments for the higher reported profits under INT FRS 112 and capture the perpetual dividends as interests, it is certain profits would have been even lower — and net gearing even higher.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 12, 2019, 02:51:58 PM
S&P: Hyflux’s capital structure “hardly sustainable” when it issued perpetual securities in 2016 ~ 11 Apr 2019
Hyflux says perpetual and preference shareholders will lose everything in liquidation ~ 21 Jan 2019
"Many of you have been asking what I am personally giving to this company. But with SM Investments coming into the company, this is effectively a takeover and I no longer own much shares. In fact, almost no shares so I will no longer be in the driving seat." Still, she stressed that she plans to stay on for as long as possible to ensure a smooth transition.


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 16, 2019, 05:24:46 PM
Zuolun bro,

Can always buy high and sell high

Like F&N, I buy at sky high 8.82
And waited until it split to frasers property limited to sell at 1.69 and F&N at 3.07 although it is now at $2, I am happy with small profits

Zuolun bro,

Frasers commercial closed 1.59
52 weeks high
Rights issue coming


有感而发 ~ F&N的妈妈股和姐妹股让我想我的一根烂牙。本来在2013年我只需要付几十块钱就可以拔掉的。可是当年我并没有立刻去做;反而拖到今年(2019年6月11日)才拔掉它。你知道我付了多少倍才能够拔掉那根烂牙吗?答案是:六倍!


F&N (adjusted for any splits) rose to high of $9.60 per share in 2013. After divesting its stakes in Asia Pacific Brewery, F&N returned capital of $3.70 per share to shareholders. Following which, in the same year, the group spun off its property arm Frasers Centrepoint (FCL) and shareholders got a dividend in specie distribution of two FCL shares for every F&N share they own. Each share of FCL had a book value of $2.04 then. After adjusting the stock for the capital reduction and dividend in specie exercise, the theoretical residual value for the F&N stock should be $1.82.

F&N ~ Potential Double Bottom, critical support @ S$1.635

F&N closed with a black marubozu unchanged @ S$1.72 with extremely thin volume done at 33,600 shares on 14 Jun 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.705, immediate resistance @ S$1.76.


F&N run-up strongly from 2009 to 2013 you didn't buy its shares all those years and at the last leg of the longterm uptrend, you jumped in to buy at sky high and held the shares tightly until you made a small profit.

This is called 阿Q精神。


F&N to return S$607m in cash to shareholders  ~ 27 Dec 2013
F&N to return S$607m in cash to shareholders, or a 42 cents-a-share payout, in its second major capital reduction exercise in 2013. Capital reduction will not result in cancellation of its roughly 1.44 billion shares.

F&N  ~ The last burst of fire

F&N @ 5.63 on 12 Dec 2013.


F&N ~ Fall off the cliff

F&N @ S$2.73 on 23 Jan 2015.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 24, 2019, 09:09:34 AM
9 in 10 graduates find employment within 6 months. But here’s what the statistics isn’t telling you ~ 2 Apr 2019
It also reported that the medium monthly salary graduates from local universities is S$3,400.

Young, jobless and feeling hopeless in Singapore

By Yuen Sin
23 Jun 2019, 5:00 am SGT

Experts flag vulnerability, struggles of group not in education, employment or training.


For the past 1 & 1/2 years, 24-year-old Benjamin has been spending his days at home.

He is not in school. He is not working. He is not undergoing training.

He whiles away the time reading the newspapers, browsing the Internet or listening to the radio, keeping his expenses to a minimum. Occasionally, he ventures out to run errands with his parents, who pay for his meals and other necessities.

Benjamin, who does not want his real name used due to the stigma associated with his condition, has a diploma in media and communication from Singapore Polytechnic.

But he became fearful about looking for jobs after unsuccessful applications to about 10 post-production companies. He has also had negative experiences during previous internships, including being fired at an events company for being slow at simple tasks such as packing items into containers.

Last year, he fell into depression. Benjamin is among a growing group of youth aged 15 to 24 in Singapore who are defined as Neet (not in education, employment or training) by organisations such as the World Bank and International Labour Organisation (ILO).

The latest available data – from the National Youth Survey in 2016 – showed that there are 20,100 Neets here, making up 4.1 per cent of the resident youth population.

This is an uptick from 19,700 in 2013, comprising 3.7 per cent of the resident youth population.

The survey was conducted by the National Youth Council, with input from the Ministry of Manpower and the National Population and Talent Division. It polled a representative sample of 3,531 youth in 2016, and 2,843 youth in 2013.

Unlike the youth unemployment rate – which captures the number of jobless among those actively searching for work, Neet data includes those who have dropped out of the labour force altogether.

This is thus a more comprehensive measure of the economically idle among young Singaporeans, said the survey report.

Neets are a vulnerable segment of the youth population, said the ILO, as they are at risk of both labour market and social exclusion.

Singapore’s Neet rate is low by global standards. Neet rates in other developed countries such as Germany and Finland in 2016 ranged from 6.5 to 9.9 per cent.

But higher job expectations, on top of uncertain economic conditions, may have led to a growth in this Neet rate – which experts say is likely to go higher.

Japan's modern-day hermits: The world of hikikomori ~ 18 Jan 2019

A posed picture of a hikikomori. The term hikikomori refers to those who experience physical isolation, social avoidance and psychological distress for six months or longer, according to the BBC.


三和人才市场:零工族生存实录 ~ 12 Nov 2018

[NHK][纪录片][中文字幕] 三和人才市场・中国日结百元的青年们 ~  11 May 2018

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 24, 2019, 12:15:31 PM
“反送中”将影响台湾大选? ~ 23 Jun 2019


Chinese govt invites foreign media to Xinjiang to paint a positive image of its Muslim Uighur’s ‘re-education’ camps... ~ 22 Jun 2019

德语媒体:别和只在乎利益的北京谈道德 ~ 22 Jun 2019


BBC記者發現新疆清真寺遭摧毀的證據 ~ 20 Jun 2019

Inside China's 'thought transformation' camps ~ 18 Jun 2019

一國兩制的新疆自治區現況 ~ 24 May 2019

生命尊嚴何在?中共無情摧毀新疆維族社會 ~ 11 May 2019

中共打压新疆穆斯林3年毁近100清真寺 ~ 8 May 2019


美国指中国要“消灭伊斯兰文化和宗教” ~ 15 Mar 2019


新疆醫師爆「再教育營」真相! 日記者揭聯合國不制裁中國內幕 ~ 5 Nov 2018

China‘s hidden camps ~ 24 Oct 2018
What’s happened to the vanished Uighurs of Xinjiang?


新疆傳出上百萬人遭監禁洗腦?~ 19 Oct 2018

維族被迫"再教育" 新疆"自治區"成諷刺 ~ 27 Aug 2018

鬍鬚都管百萬人「再教育」 進新疆天皇老子也要走「VIP必檢通道」! ~ 8 May 2018

新疆人"生理特徵"全都錄 中國天網無所遁逃? ~ 9 Jan 2018

Rescuing the boat people ~ 28 Aug 2009

Boat People (投奔怒海 1982)

Running and screaming: the photo that changed a war
In this June 8, 1972 photo, South Vietnamese forces follow after terrified children, including 9-year-old Kim Phuc, center, as they run down Route 1 near Trang Bang after an aerial napalm attack on suspected Viet Cong hiding places.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 26, 2019, 07:26:57 AM
Netizens displeased with DPM Heng’s statement that GST would be up to 15% if not for Singapore’s healthy reserves ~ 17 Jun 2019
Earlier this year, Mr Heng who is also the Finance Minister, announced in Budget 2019 that the GST will be raised from 7% to 9% as the Government’s spending on healthcare, infrastructure and security has increased and is expected to get higher in years to come. The Minister stated that the hike will happen sometime between 2021 and 2025 which means it will be increased after the next General Election.


Top five healthcare systems in Asia-Pacific ~ 31 May 2019


‘Hard choices’ need to be made to keep healthcare spending sustainable: PM Lee ~ 23 Mar 2019

What does Singapore’s new military budget say about its defense priorities? ~ 22 Feb 2019
Budget 2019: 30% of Government expenditure to go towards defence, security and diplomacy ~ 19 Feb 2019
The lion's share goes to defence expenditure, which is expected to increase by 4.8% to $15.5 billion.

2.2 or 8% healthcare spending as % of GDP? ~ 8 Nov 2018
It states that “All in all, we expect our average annual healthcare spending to rise from 2.2% of GDP today to almost 3% of GDP over the next decade. This is an increase of nearly 0.8-percentage point of GDP, or about S$3.6 billion in today’s dollars. Within the next decade, healthcare spending is expected to overtake education.”

S’pore’s healthcare protection gap highest in Asia? ~ 6 Oct 2018

Reserves can’t use for healthcare – what have we been using? ~ 6 Mar 2018

Nothing for Heng Swee Keat to shout about for spending only $13b on healthcare from 2020 ~ 8 Dec 2017
“To put that in perspective, the total budget for the Ministry of Health (MOH) in 2010 was $4 billion. In this year’s Budget, Mr Heng allocated it $10 billion.”

According to the most recent data (2014) from World Bank, Singapore can be seen to be spending the least in healthcare as % of GDP among the first world countries (this is total health spending including private and public spending):

US – 17.1%
Sweden – 11.9%
Switzerland – 11.7%
France – 11.5%
Germany – 11.3%
Austria – 11.2%
New Zealand – 11.0%
Netherlands – 10.9%
Denmark – 10.8%
Belgium – 10.6%
Canada – 10.4%
Japan – 10.2%
Norway – 9.7%
Finland – 9.7%
Portugal – 9.5%
Australia – 9.4%
Italy – 9.2%
UK – 9.1%
Spain – 9.0%
Iceland – 8.9%
Greece – 8.1%
Israel – 7.8%
Ireland – 7.8%
South Korea – 7.4%
Luxembourg – 6.9%
Singapore – 4.9%

At 4.9% of healthcare expenditure, Singapore is ranked along with countries like Burkina Faso (5.0%), Libya (5.0%), Ethiopia (4.9%), Mauritius (4.8%).

OECD countries pay for majority share of total health expenditure – Singapore prepares to pay only 40%.

And to make matter worse, the 4.9% quoted above for Singapore was for total healthcare spending, which includes both public and private spending.

Among the OECD countries, the average out-of-pocket or private expenditure as a share of total health expenditure in 2015 was 20.2%. That means, public spending as a share of total health expenditure was a whopping 79.8% for OECD countries on average. Even Korean’s share was 63.2%.

Singapore healthcare budget to hit 3.5% of GDP by 2030 ~ 23 Mar 2017
Singapore's overall expenditure on health will double over the next 5 years and may reach up to 3.5% of the country's GDP by 2030, up from the current 1.6%.

Fox: Singapore has the world’s greatest healthcare system? ~ 2 Dec 2016
Very high % of income contribution to Medisave? ~ As Singaporeans contribute as much as 10.5% of their income to their Medisave accounts – we may from a cashflow perspective – arguably be paying the highest “implicit healthcare premium” (as a percentage of income) in the world.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 10, 2019, 04:18:58 PM
新加坡公共综合诊所看诊费 未津贴前贵过私人诊所? ~ 5 Jul 2019


“划一诊费 一再拖延”‧医协:私人诊所用27年前收费率 ~ 22 Jun 2019

私人诊所看诊费调涨 年底有定案 ~ 11 Jun 2019

营运成本日益高涨 私人诊所难以支撑相继倒闭 ~ 27 May 2019


看病无需预约 服务具素质 2019全球退休指数马国医疗保健最佳 ~ 7 Feb 2019
美国《国际生活》杂志(International Living),公布2019年全球生活退休指数,马来西亚被评选为全球最佳医疗保健胜地。在该指数的医疗保健类別,马国在满分100分中得分95。《国际生活》杂志整理的报告指马国有13家医院,获得国际医疗卫生机构认证联合委员会(JCI)的认证,而且几乎所有医生都能口操流利英文。

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 03, 2019, 03:07:00 PM
Vivocom (formerly Instacom) :一个会创新低的股价还会创新低,直到它不会创新低。

Vivocom (weekly) ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel

Vivocom closed @ RM0.015 on 2 Aug 2019.


When a stock is in a bear-market territory, the last low will be retested and the share price will move much further down, forming a new record low.

Vivocom (formerly Instacom) ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel

Vivocom closed with a dragonfly doji unchanged @ RM0.13 with 33.3m shares done on 2 Jun 2017.

Immediate support @ RM0.12, immediate resistance @ RN0.14.


VIVOCOM (0069) 怡丰国际: 怡丰国际“跌跌”不休 建筑合约碰钉子 ~ 5 Jun 2017

INSTACO (0069) - My views on instacom - Salvador Dali ~ 15 Jan 2016
Either the entire thing is a scam, or its true... how to scam with CRCC(中国铁建)?

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 08, 2019, 12:08:21 PM
The Basics Of Game Theory

1.  Malaysia's Genting Malaysia ~ 6 Aug 2019
2.  Malaysia's OSK Holdings ~ 14 Jun 2017
3.  Indonesia's Indofood  ~ 3 Mar 2016

Kok Thay sells loss-making Empire Resorts stake to Genting Msia ~ 6 Aug 2019
Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, via Kien Huat Realty III Ltd, is selling 46% of the common stock in Nasdaq-listed gaming and entertainment company, Empire Resorts Inc, to Genting Malaysia Bhd (GenM) for US$128.6 million cash or RM538.8 million.

Indonesia's Indofood rattles investors by buying land from CEO ~ 14 Jun 2017*-from-CEO-causes-market-jitters
Food giant's $164 million payout is equal to 16.5% of its cash holdings

OSK Holdings: Merger of OSK Property and PJ Development ~ 3 Mar 2016
In 2015, OSK Holdings Berhad completed its corporate exercise to merge the businesses and operations of PJ Development Holdings Berhad and OSK Property Holdings Berhad into the OSK Group.

GENM (4715)

GENM closed @ RM3.18 (-0.43, -11.9%) with high volume done at 260m shares on 7 Aug 2019.


GENM closed @ RM3.70 (+0.25, +7.2%) with high volume done at 57.7m shares on 24 Jul 2019.


GENTING (3182)

GENTING closed  @ RM6.18 (-0.47, -7.1%) with 23.6m shares done on 7 Aug 2019.


GENTING closed @ RM6.87 (+0.22, +3.3%) with high volume done at 12.0m shares on 24 Jul 2019.


Genting Sp (G13)

Genting SP @ S$0.88 (+0.01, +1.1%) with 25.3m shares done on 7 Aug 2019.


Genting SP closed @ S$0.935 with 29.5m shares done on 24 Jul 2019.


Performance Chart ~ GENM (4715), GENTING (3182) and Genting Sp (G13) from 15 May 2018 to 7 Aug 2019


Performance Chart ~ GENM (4715), GENTING (3182) and Genting Sp (G13) from 15 May 2018 to 24 Jul 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 08, 2019, 12:21:32 PM
Turmoil gives Hong Kong its best chance for badly needed political and economic reforms since 1997 ~ 7 Aug 2019
Amid the crisis comes a chance to start afresh, agree on some form of electoral democracy and press on with social and economic reforms in housing and jobs. It is time for Hong Kong to stop being governed by cartels and caretakers.

Hong Kong and Singapore, so similar yet so different – it’s all about housing, money and politics ~ 1 Aug 2019
With housing so out of reach, any spark can trigger uncontrollable riots. Instead of being amazed by city’s turmoil, one should wonder why it took so long.


Hongkong Land profit plunged 63% to US$411m from US$1.12b in H1 ~ 2 Aug 2019

HK Land ~ Bearish Rounding Top Breakout, interim TP @ US$5.30

HK Land closed with a black marubozu @ US$5.57 (-0.17, -3.0%) with 6.41m shares done on 6 Aug 2019.

Immediate support @ US$5.45, immediate resistance @ US$5.71.


(The Power of Gartley Pattern: HongKong Land's chart flashed a SELL signal in mid-April 2017)

HongKong Land ~ Bearish Rounding Top Breakout, interim TP US$5.59

HongKong Land closed with a spinning top @ US$6.09 (-0.01, -0.2%) with 1.76m shares done on 19 Oct 2018.

Immediate support @ US$6.04, immediate resistance @ US$6.15.


HongKong Land (weekly) ~ Bearish Bat Pattern


Bearish Bat Pattern

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 21, 2019, 05:54:10 PM
The CEO of a listed-company, ABC invested company's fund, $1 billion in a company called XYZ with full knowledge that it would go bankrupt soon. Prior to the investment decision, he had liaised a 50/50 split with the owner of company XYZ that each would get $500 million once he got the money. After a while, company XYZ really went bankrupt. It didn't affect the CEO personally as the $1 billion in losses were attributable to the listed-company ABC. So what's rightfully company ABC’s money has now become the CEO's personal money, and it’s all legal and above board.


有感而发 :

突然想起一篇文章。那间ABC上市公司的例子其实是一个真实个案(see above summary)。


Empire Resorts to be acquired by controlling holder Lim ~ 20 Aug 2019

Empire Resorts on the brink of filing for bankruptcy ~ 13 Aug 2019

Genting, conquering a losing Empire? ~ 9 Aug 2019

Empire Resorts announces Receipt of Letter from controlling stockholder ~ 26 Jul 2019
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 27, 2019, 12:00:35 PM
李嘉诚撤离砸4000亿给英国,这个香港富豪却携138亿“进军”内地 ~ 24 Aug 2019

China is looking for a quick economic fix in Hong Kong. It’s missing the point ~ 30 Jul 2019
Tycoons: The men who rule Hong Kong ~ 4 Oct 2016


李嘉诚旗下码头罢工续:工人十年未涨薪 ~ 1 Apr 2013


20万香港底层的真实生存状态:我还没死,就住进了棺材房 ~ 4 Oct 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 03, 2019, 12:27:00 PM
SP Setia ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, TP RM1.17

SP Setia closed with a white marubozu @ RM1.56 (+0.09, +6.1%) with 2.26m shares done on 30 Aug 2019.

Immediate support @ RM1.47, immediate resistance @ RM1.60.


SP Setia ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP RM1.55

SP Setia closed with an inverted hammer unchanged @ RM1.84 with 1.17m shares done on 9 Aug 2019.

Immediate support @ RM1.75, immediate resistance @ RM1.87.


Pound to Euro exchange rates: Sterling unstable against the Euro owing to Brexit uncertainty ~ 30 Aug 2019

The Euro-Dollar charts point lower and a recession in Germany "just moved one step closer" ~ 30 Aug 2019

Battersea project contributions seen for S P Setia from FY21 ~ 16 Aug 2019
CGS-CIMB Research maintained “hold” on S P Setia TP lowered to RM1.90.

Investor sentiment in Battersea project still strong ~ 25 Jun 2019

伦敦巴特西迷雾:一桩自导自演的诡异交易 ~ 2 Feb 2018

Are mergers and acquisitions always good for investors?

By Royston Yang
31 January 2019

There's nothing which graces the headlines and makes business news more exciting than mergers and acquisition (M&A) announcements.

With the desire to grow larger and get better, more and more companies are on an acquisition spree to turbo-charge their growth and to create more "shareholder value". Investors who are on the receiving end of such announcements from the companies within their portfolio should carefully scrutinise the deals as M&A do not always turn out well. The devil, as they say, is in the details and this article attempts to explain the good and the bad when it comes to M&A.

The Lowdown On M&A
Companies undertake M&A for a variety of reasons, from the need to integrate a new product line or lines (buying instead of building one shortens the process), acquiring a new complementary set of customers, diversifying away from their core business or simply adding on to their existing capabilities. Whatever the reasons, investors should look at several aspects to ascertain if the transactions are good or bad.
  • Price paid and valuation – What was the total amount of money paid for the deal? Did the company over-pay or are they getting a good deal? It’s important to drill down into the valuation paid and not just look at the headline number. For example, if the acquisition costs $100 million and the acquired company generates $10 million in net profit each year, this means the acquisition was made at 10x earnings, which is considered cheap. The rule of thumb is anything above 15x earnings would be considered “expensive”, though of course, this varies according to the industry.
  • Supposed benefits – Look at what management communicates to shareholders regarding the benefits of the M&A. Does it result in better earnings visibility, wider customer base or product portfolio or some other tangible benefit? Be careful of general terms such as “synergies” which do not provide specific details on how the M&A will benefit the acquirer.
  • Funding for the acquisition – How is the acquisition funded? Using the company’s internal resources and based off free cash flow generation, or via a higher level of borrowings? This is important as it demonstrates if management may be biting off more than they can chew. The infamous leveraged buy-outs in the late 1990s, where companies borrowed aggressively to fund expensive acquisitions, turned out to be a grave mistake as many of these M&A subsequently fared poorly.
Assessing And Monitoring M&A
As investors, I believe we should continue to monitor and assess if the M&A performed well over time, to decide on whether the company had made a good or poor acquisition. Study the disclosures made of the new division or acquisition (assuming the company discloses such numbers) to determine if it is performing well or poorly. The time horizon should be anything from one year to three years, so this can be a long-drawn process.

The Foolish Bottom Line
M&A can be complex, and it’s not easy for the investor to assess if an M&A is good or bad unless he monitors it. A company may also have a track record of successful M&A which an investor can rely on for psychological comfort. The bottom line is that M&As are not always beneficial, and the investor should be aware of this.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 19, 2019, 01:06:05 PM
The Basics Of Game Theory


Chip Eng Seng's rights issue proposal = 大鱼吃小鱼  [供股(rights issue)纯粹为了让大股东吞吃小股东的利益]

Elephant in the room: “Change of control” situations ~ 5 Sep 2019
“if the EGM resolutions are passed, the controlling shareholders stand to receive about $1 million to carry out this rights issue that will likely allow them to increase their shareholdings beyond 30% without triggering the mandatory general offer. This seems like a case of having your cake and eating it too.”


Securities watchdog looking into billionaire couple' s purchase of Chip Eng Seng shares

18 Sep 2019

THE Securities Industries Council (SIC), which administers Singapore's takeover code, is looking into the circumstances that saw billionaire couple Celine and Gordon Tang emerge as substantial shareholders of Chip Eng Seng in October last year.

"The SIC is looking into the acquisition of shares in the company in October 2018 by the relevant parties," the council said on Tuesday in response to queries from The Business Times.

"As our enquiry is on-going, we are not able to comment further at this point."

The Tangs forked out S$201 million to become Chip Eng Seng's largest shareholders last October, through married deals with members of Chip Eng Seng's controlling Lim family that were done at a premium to the market price.

However, the Tangs chose not to buy out the Lim family's entire stake. Instead, they bought enough to take their stake to 29.73 per cent.

By keeping their ownership below 30 per cent, the Tangs avoided having to buy out Chip Eng Seng's minority shareholders at the same price that the insiders were bought out.

So when Chip Eng Seng proposed a rights issue last month that will be sub-underwritten by the Tangs, corporate governance advocates raised concerns that the relatively unattractive rights offering could lead to the Tangs raising their stake to as high as 43.43 per cent of the enlarged issued capital, allowing them to strengthen their control over the property and construction group without paying minority shareholders a dime.

The SIC declined to comment on why it is revisiting last year's married deals now.

In July, it greenlighted the Tangs' request to waive their obligation to buy out everyone if their ownership crosses 30 per cent as part of the rights issue.

The council's statement on Tuesday came after BT asked it to explain its rationale for the waiver.

Rule 14(6) of the takeover code requires the Tangs to make a takeover offer for Chip Eng Seng if the council judges that the couple have "a significant degree of control" over the voting rights of those insiders who sold them only part of their shares.

Corporate governance activists Mak Yuen Teen and Chew Yi Hong had argued in the pages of BT last week that the Tangs do indeed have effective control over the company, which they believe puts the rationale for the rights issue into question.

Even if the Tangs keep their ownership below 30 per cent, the code states that "the payment of a very high price for the voting rights would tend to suggest that control over the entire holding (of the sellers) was being secured", among other things.

The Tangs paid the Lims a premium of 26.5 cents (or about 33 per cent) to the average undisturbed price of 81.5 cents for their shares last year, wrote Prof Mak and Mr Chew, which works out to a control premium of about S$49 million.

Prof Mak said on Tuesday: "I think the issues of concert parties, partial sales, payment of a high price, independence of directors and corporate actions like the rights issue we saw in Chip Eng Seng need to be scrutinised. It's good if the SIC is looking at it."

When BT approached Chip Eng Seng's board of directors for comment on Tuesday, independent director Abdul Jabbar said: "As the acquisition of shares is a shareholder issue which does not involve the company and there is an enquiry by the SIC on going, it would not be appropriate for the board of CES (Chip Eng Seng) to comment on this.

"From CES' perspective, our corporate strategic growth plans and need for funding remain in place, and, barring any unforeseen developments, we intend to proceed with the rights issue as planned."

The SIC follows due process in its enquiries. It cannot halt a company's corporate actions without the backing of its findings.

Celine Tang, who is a non-executive and non-independent chairman of Chip Eng Seng, did not comment.

Gordon and Celine Tang reside in Singapore, and are reportedly close to the Bush family and Thailand's former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

Mrs Tang is managing director of Singapore-listed SingHaiyi. Neil Bush, the brother of Jeb and former US president George W. Bush, chairs SingHaiyi.

The Tangs also own stakes in Singapore-listed Suntec Reit, ARA US Hospitality Trust, Eagle Hospitality Trust, Cromwell European Reit, OUE Commercial Reit and OKH Global.

Chip Eng Seng proposes rights issue to raise S$96m for expansion

22 Aug 2019

MAINBOARD-LISTED developer  Chip Eng Seng on Thursday said that it plans to  do a renounceable underwritten rights issue of about 156.5 million new  shares at  S$0.63 each, to raise  net proceeds of about  S$96.3 million for its expansion plans.

This will be done on the basis of one rights share for  every four existing shares in the company held by shareholders.

Proceeds will be used  to finance the possible expansion of its property development business in Singapore and overseas, as well as to fund  possible strategic investments and acquisitions in the  education segment of its business, which is in line with the group' s recent diversification into the education sector.

Some money will also be used for  the growth and operations of the group' s hospitality segment, as well as for  general and working capital.

In support of the rights issue, controlling shareholder Celine Tang (also the company' s chairman), her husband Gordon Tang, as well as group CEO Chia Lee Meng Raymond,  have given irrevocable undertakings to subscribe for their portion of shares, which constitute about 31.51 per  cent of the total number of rights shares.

Mr and Mrs Tang have been granted approval by the  Securities Industry Council of Singapore not to have to  make a  mandatory general offer, should  their shareholding in the company rise above 30 per cent.

Ms Tang has a direct and deemed interest of  29.73 per cent in the company.

The price carries a 7.35 per cent discount to the closing price of S$0.68 per share on  Aug 22, and a  5.97 per cent discount to the theoretical ex-rights price of S$0.67, assuming the completion of the rights issue, calculated based on the Aug 22 closing price.

Chip Eng Seng said it has considered other fundraising options, including further bank borrowings  and debt instruments from financial institutions or debt issuances under its S$750  million Multicurrency Debt Issuance Programme, but found a rights issue to be the most " suitable" .

This is because its  net debt-to-equity ratio is already about 1.8 times as at end-June 2019, and  based on the three-year fixed rate notes issued in March 2019 under the programme, the cost of borrowing was 6 per  cent per annum.

"The cost of borrowing depends on market conditions and may be higher for borrowings of a longer tenor," it said.

It has also calculated based on its last paid dividends and Aug 22 closing price, that the cost of equity would be cheaper at about 5.88 per cent per  annum.

Therefore, a rights issue would strengthen the group' s financial position by improving its  balance sheet and capital base, while reducing its net gearing, the firm added.

At the same time, it will give the group greater financial capacity  and flexibility to capitalise on investment and expansion opportunities and allow it to respond  to such opportunities quickly, it said.

Chip Eng Seng will be seeking approval from shareholders in  an extraordinary general meeting to be convened to vote on the issuance, among other things.

United Overseas Bank has been appointed the manager and underwriter for the rights issue.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 21, 2019, 09:39:38 AM
Motley Fool ceasing Singapore operations over regulatory issues

By Claudia Tan
10 Oct 2019

THE Motley Fool Singapore is ceasing operations over a regulatory bind with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

The company - a local outpost of Motley Fool in the US - is an investment advisory business that covers stocks and companies, and gives recommendations based on a subscription-based model.

It is classified as a financial institution and operates with a financial adviser's licence under the Financial Advisers Act (FAA).

Its chief executive officer David Kuo said: "We are a subscription service, we don't manage people's funds so it's hard to understand why we have to be regulated the same way as a financial institution."

But nobody is to blame, noted Mr Kuo. "It comes down to regulation and I am not at any point criticising it, it's just that it does not make commercial sense for us to operate under such rules," he said.

Under the FAA, the firm is required to maintain a paid-up capital of S$150,000 and net assets sufficient to cover at least three months of their expenses, subject to a minimum of S$112,500. "This is to ensure they have sufficient financial resources to meet their near-term obligations," said a MAS spokesperson.

Such rules hindered the growth of the company as income from subscription fees have to be booked as assets. "Unfortunately, because we have to keep all of this cash as net assets, we cannot grow the business. The more we grow, the more net asset is required," said Mr Kuo.

According to the MAS spokesperson, most foreign regulators also require financial advisers to maintain a minimum level of liquid assets that are tied to either expenses or cash flows.

Motley Fool, however, continues to thrive in markets outside Singapore including the US, Australia and Japan. "They are not regulated the same way we are and that really is the crux of the matter," said Mr Kuo.

When the company was set up locally in 2013, it started out with Mr Kuo, his business manager and a mere two subscribers. It has since grown exponentially and amassed over 150,000 subscribers. About 10,000 of them pay between S$200 to S$2000 annually for additional services such as seminars and access to exclusive events.

But this very growth caused Motley Fool to become a victim of its own success. The firm had to continuously pump in more capital into the business to cope with the progress it was making. "We needed a huge amount of capital to generate a small amount of revenue. I am not saying it doesn't work, but the return on the investment is not good enough to run the business," said Mr Kuo.

In its response to BT, MAS noted that it had, in February this year, launched the S$75 million Grant for Equity Market Singapore (GEMS) initiative. This included the Research Talent Development grant which co-funds the salaries of local equity research analysts. BT understands that Motley Fool had not made any application under this scheme.

Asked if the firm would consider merging with investment funds, Mr Kuo said: "We believe that private investors should look after their own money rather than hand it over to professional money managers. More than two-thirds of fund managers are unable to beat the market. The primary reason is the fees and charges that eat into investors' returns."

Motley Fool has since notified subscribers of its closure and will be providing them with the necessary refunds. In its email notice to subscribers, Mr Kuo said the challenging environment made it difficult for the company to grow meaningfully and it will cease operations completely on Oct 31.

"Even though the Motley Fool Singapore may not be around, we hope the lessons of long-term investing in companies will last in the minds of our community," he said in the email.

Looking ahead, Mr Kuo plans to continue writing his own commentaries to express his views on the financial market through his own website. "The team is very committed to what we set out to do in the beginning - to educate Singaporeans on how to invest," said Mr Kuo.

Two other members from the team, made up of some 16 people including full-time and freelance analysts and writers, are in the midst of setting up their own website to share stock information.

On the possibility of revising current rules, the MAS spokesperson said that the authority "will periodically review its regulatory requirements, factoring in industry and global developments".
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 21, 2019, 10:48:29 AM
Malaysia parliament scraps law criminalising fake news ~ 10 Oct 2019
Legislation gives government power to order social media sites to put warnings next to posts authorities deem to be false.
The Online Citizen article, editor Terry Xu's Facebook post contain falsehoods: MCI and MinLaw ~ 8 Oct 2019

Singapore’s ‘fake news’ law takes effect as critics sound alarm ~ 2 Oct 2019
Singapore's new law to combat "fake news" came into effect Oct 2 despite criticism from tech giants and activists, who labelled the tough rules a "chilling" attempt to stifle dissent.

TOC editor Terry Xu applies to bring in PM Lee Hsien Loong's siblings in lawsuit ~ 1 Oct 2019
Mr Terry Xu, who filed his application in the High Court last Thursday (Sept 26), said he wanted Mr Lee Hsien Yang and Dr Lee Wei Ling to bear the damages if he is found to have defamed PM Lee in an Aug 15 article published by TOC. He explained in a separate document filed last Friday that the article, "PM Lee's wife, Ho Ching weirdly shares article on cutting ties with family members", was meant to be ironic and meant no malice.

TOC editor-in-chief files defence against PM Lee’s defamation suit ~ 27 Sep 2019
Following Mr Xu’s refusal to take down an article published on TOC titled “PM Lee’s wife, Ho Ching weirdly shares article on cutting ties with family members” and issue an apology for the post as set out in the letter of demand from the Prime Minister’s Office on 1 Sept, a writ of summons was served by PM Lee to Mr Xu on 5 Sep.

Singapore’s PM Lee ‘will testify in court’ if defamation suit against The Online Citizen editor goes to trial ~ 11 Sep 2019
PM Lee’s siblings can decide if they want to testify in court with Terry Xu should the defamation suit goes to trial ~ 11 Sep 2019

TOC editor-in-chief to self-represent in court, files memorandum of appearance following PM Lee’s filing of defamation suit ~ 10 Sep 2019
Mr Xu is expected to enter his defence for the case within 14 days from today. The pre-trial conference is due to take place on 15 Oct at 9.30am.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 21, 2019, 12:10:59 PM
NBA总裁肖华拒绝应中共要求开除莫雷 重申言论自由是美国企业价值观之一 ~ 18 Oct 2019

NBA's relationship with China frayed over Hong Kong protests ~ 18 Oct 2019

Chinese censorship is no longer just a China problem ~ 17 Oct 2019

Chinese censorship is spreading beyond its borders ~ 15 Oct 2019
An incident last week underlined that, in reality, China feels perfectly entitled to interfere when foreigners express views that displease Beijing. A pro-Hong Kong tweet from the general manager of the Houston Rockets led to a clash between China and America’s National Basketball Association, which resulted in NBA games being pulled from Chinese state television.

From the NBA to ‘South Park,’ China refuses to play ball with its critics ~ 15 Oct 2019

China’s conflict with the NBA shows why companies can’t force social change by themselves ~ 13 Oct 2019
A tweet landed a global brand in a clash of politics and cultural demands.


越来越多的美国新闻媒体由少数公司控制 ~ 19 Sep 2019
根据北卡罗来纳大学的数据,15年前还在活跃的报纸有20%已关门大吉,让数以百计的地方连一家当地报纸也没有。根据皮尤研究中心的数据,报纸新闻编辑室的工作岗位自从2004年以来锐减了47%。与此同时,盖特豪斯媒体(GateHouse Media)和甘尼特(Gannett)等这样的公司控制着数百家出版物,它们利用集中式的新闻采集手段,减少了对当地社区的关注。


Utusan, oldest Malay newspaper, and Kosmo! to cease publication ~ 19 Aug 2019
All publications under the Utusan Group – Utusan Malaysia, Mingguan Malaysia, Kosmo!, and Kosmo! Ahad – will cease all print and online publications on Wednesday, 21 Aug 2019.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 21, 2019, 01:23:04 PM
Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong a social media hero in China for Hong Kong protest comments ~ 18 Oct 2019
What do protests in Hong Kong and Barcelona have in common? (video) ~ 18 Oct 2019

黄耀明:在香港,对抗一种无法命名的恐惧 ~ 24 Sep 2019

赴美國會聽證遊說!何韻詩談革命這一路 ~ 23 Sep 2019

Disney’s Mulan faces boycott calls after star Crystal Liu Yifei backs police in Hong Kong, accused of excessive force against protesters ~ 16 Aug 2019

何韻詩:我完全被中共封殺了 外媒:當年挺六四的眾港星 反送中今昔何在? ~ 10 Jul 2019

歌手何韻詩在聯合國兩分鐘發言 遭中共兩次打斷 ~ 9 Jul 2019

何韻詩在聯合國接受採訪:港人抗議轉移到九龍方向 給大陸傳遞信息 ~ 8 Jul 2019

Denise Ho - Oslo Freedom Forum : “Under the umbrella : Creative dissent in Hong Kong” ~ 29 May 2019
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 28, 2019, 11:21:44 AM
Singapore Manpower Minister Josephine Teo on higher unemployment rate: Jobseekers not having the skills ~ 25 Oct 2019

Strong Singapore employment growth in Q3 but highest jobless rate in nearly a decade: MOM data ~ 24 Oct 2019

Five states, including some crucial to Trump, just hit all-time low unemployment rates ~ 18 Oct 2019
The declines come amid a national jobless rate that fell to 3.5%, the lowest since 1969.


US unemployment rate falls to 50-year low of 3.5% ~ 4 Oct 2019
The positive jobs data is unlikely to ease pressure on Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

Low hurdle seen to maintain sub-4% U.S. unemployment rate ~ 4 Oct 2019


PMET unemployment in Singapore continues to climb ~ 3 Oct 2019
Meanwhile, the number of foreign PMETs employed in Singapore continues to climb.


The Edge Singapore called out by MOM, MOE for inaccurate data on jobless graduates ~ 6 Jul 2019

Young Singaporeans face higher unemployment levels compared to older peers: MOM data ~ 28 Jun 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 10, 2019, 07:52:39 AM
Nestle and Unilever ‘linked to Indonesian forest fires engulfing southeast Asia in noxious haze’ ~ 9 Nov 2019
All of the companies buy palm oil from specific plantations under investigation for 2019 fires, and from plantations with court actions against them for 2015-2018 fires, the environmental group alleges.

Malaysia turns to Africa after India rebuke on palm oil  ~ 8 Nov 2019
Indian businessmen stopped importing palm oil after Malaysian premier called for solution to Kashmir dispute.

Malaysia identifying new potential markets for palm oil in Africa — minister ~ 8 Nov 2019
Ethiopia, in 2018, imported 149,435 tonnes of Malaysian palm oil and palm oil-based products worth RM457.17 million.

Malaysia, India locked in spat over Kashmir ~ 8 Nov 2019
Indian businessmen refuse to buy palm oil from Malaysia over its stance on disputed territory. India was angered after Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said New Delhi had "invaded and occupied" Jammu and Kashmir during his address in New York City at the 74th session of the UN General Assembly on Sept. 27.

Malaysia's Mahathir stands by Kashmir comments despite palm oil boycott by India traders ~ 22 Oct 2019
India was Malaysia’s third-largest export destination in 2018 for palm oil and palm-based products worth 6.84 billion ringgit ($1.63 billion).

Palm oil exports set to decline as India buys less ~ 12 Sep 2019
Malaysia’s biggest palm oil buyer is likely to reduce its purchase over the next few months, a move that is expected to hit local palm oil exporters beginning this month. India, which accounted for nearly 33% of Malaysia’s palm oil exports in August 2019, recently upped the import tax on Malaysia’s refined palm oil from 45% to 50% for a period of six months.

The real problem with palm oil ~ 5 Jul 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 10, 2019, 03:05:45 PM

马来西亚的1斤是600克; 中国的1斤是500克。

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 11, 2019, 11:22:01 AM
Why Singaporeans don’t back Hong Kong protests ~ 10 Nov 2019
With a similar colonial past, territorial size and economic success, Singapore and Hong Kong serve as mutual yardsticks for progress and remain competitors at the forefront of the Asia-Pacific region. In spite of this, sections of the majority Chinese population in Singapore have expressed a general disdain at the ongoing protests in Hong Kong, often taking to social media to voice their objections.


Hong Kong police shoot black-clad protester in stomach ~ 10 Nov 2019


Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong a social media hero in China for Hong Kong protest comments ~ 18 Oct 2019
Leader of the Lion City has criticised the Hong Kong protesters, saying they are trying to ‘humiliate’ the government rather than solve problems.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 15, 2019, 11:27:51 AM
Impending GST hike to 9% to be announced in Singapore Budget 2020: DPM Heng ~ 10 Nov 2019


Upcoming Singapore GST hike: Heng Swee Keat says there'll be measures to cushion impact ~ 9 Nov 2019

Highlights of Malaysia National Budget 2020 ~ 24 Oct 2019
Now that there’s talk again about Malaysia National Budget 2020 that has just been tabled at the Dewan Rakyat by Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng.

Malaysia Budget 2020: Putrajaya says no to reintroduction of GST ~ 11 Oct 2019
The Pakatan Harapan (PH) government does not plan to reintroduce the Goods and Services Tax despite trade tensions weighing on the economy. Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng announced this when tabling Budget 2020 in Parliament’s Lower House today.


Singapore GST reverse charge to take effect on 1 January 2020 ~ 24 Jun 2019
With effect from 1 January 2020, all purchased services will be subjected to the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in Singapore, regardless of whether they are supplied by local or overseas suppliers.

Malaysia GST will be reduced from 6% to 0% starting 1st June 2018 ~ 16 May 2018
The Ministry of Finance Malaysia has just issued an official notice in its official facebook, which states that the GST excise tax rate will be reduced from the original 6% to 0% starting June 1st, 2018! Yes, it’s 0% Goods & Services Tax, which means that we don’t have to use GST anymore in Malaysia!


10 facts about the Singapore GST hike from 7% to 9% you need to know ~ 20 Feb 2018
The first GST hike occurred in 2003 from 3% to 4%, and again to 5% in 2004. The last revision was made in 2007, with an increase of 2% to 7%.

Singapore to raise GST for first time in decade despite surplus – but taxpayers won’t feel pain for at least 3 years ~ 19 Feb 2018
The decision to raise the GST to 9% would be between 2021 and 2025.


Singapore to raise GST to 9% to support aging society

Two point hike planned between 2021-2025, finance minister says

Kentaro Iwamoto, Nikkei staff writer
February 19, 2018 21:30 JST

SINGAPORE -- The Singaporean government on Monday announced that it would raise its goods and services tax to 9% from the current rate of 7% sometime between 2021 and 2025 to support expanding healthcare spending as the country's population ages.

The tax revision was announced by Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat during a speech on the country's budget plan for fiscal 2018 starting in April.

The hike will likely come after the next general election, which will be held by January 2021.

Speaking in parliament, Heng said, "We have sufficient resources to meet our spending needs until 2020... But in the next decade, between 2021 to 2030, if we do not take measures early, we will not have enough revenues to meet our growing needs."

In the 2018 budget, the government has allocated S$10.23 billion ($7.8 billion) for healthcare, nearly triple expenditure in this area in 2010. Economists had predicted the government would likely announce a rise in the GST soon.

"This GST increase is necessary because even after exploring various options to manage our future expenditures through prudent spending, saving and borrowing for infrastructure, there is still a gap," Heng pointed out. He said the country would build six hospitals and four polyclinics within the next five years.

The proposed GST hike will mark the first rise since 2007, when the rate was raised 2 percentage points from 5%. Singapore's GST rate is relatively low compared to 10% in South Korea and Indonesia, and 8% in Japan. The revenue from a rise of 2 percentage points would be worth 0.7% of the country's gross domestic product, the minister said.


Heng also said the government would impose GST on imported services, such as music downloads and smartphone apps, from January 2020. Currently services purchased from overseas suppliers are not subject to GST.

The imposition of tax on cross-border online shopping has been under consideration as the digital economy expands. According to research by Google and Singapore's Temasek Holdings in 2016, Singapore's e-commerce market will expand to $5.4 billion by 2025, a more than five-fold increase from $1 billion in 2015.

The government will hold further international talks before making a decision on the taxation of imported goods, Heng said.

In addition to healthcare expenditure, the finance minister also said infrastructure needs would expand significantly over the next decade, with Singapore planning big projects like the Singapore-Kuala Lumpur high-speed railway and Changi Airport's fifth terminal. He said the government would secure funds for such projects by saving and borrowing.

In the fiscal 2018 budget, the government expects to have total revenue of S$72.68 billion, 3.3% down from 2017's revised estimate, while expenditure will increase 8.3% to S$80.02 billion.

As a result the government is expected to see a primary deficit of S$7.34 billion.

The budget plan and proposed tax rise will be discussed in parliament before they are enacted.

Singapore Budget 2019: Overall budget surplus of $2.1 billion for Financial Year 2018 ~ 18 Feb 2018
An overall budget surplus of $2.1 billion is expected for the 2018 financial year, a $2.7 billion increase from the $600 million deficit that was forecast a year ago.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 15, 2019, 05:29:09 PM
習對香港問題表態,美參院起動熱線機制 ~ 14 Nov 2019

《香港人權與民主法案》料感恩節前完成參議院立法程序 ~ 14 Nov 2019

US senators initiate expedited process to pass Hong Kong Bill ~ 14 Nov 2019
The hotline process, initiated by Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Jim Risch (R-Idaho), will bypass the regular roll-call voting procedure. The process requires leaders of both parties to come to an agreement. Each senator would then be informed and provided a specified amount of time to object to the bill. If no objection is raised, the bill is considered passed.


中國是怎樣打「反送中」這場資訊戰? ~ 15 Oct 2019
策略性傳播(strategic communication):現在,我們看一些新聞和信息已經不限於判斷其事實上對錯或真假,而要去瞭解發佈者背後的目的,是否刻意地去發佈,就算受眾不相信及接受訊息,但或已改變對事物的印象,已達到策略性傳播者所要的目的。

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 16, 2019, 01:19:25 PM
S$211 million in CPF money left unclaimed over the last 6 years; will more CPF members die before spending their hard-earned monies? ~ 15 Nov 2019
The IPTO (Insolvency and Public Trustee’s Office) received S$63.2 million of unnominated CPF money last year alone, belonging to 3,450 individuals. That’s a lot of money left unclaimed. The question is, why? Lawyers whom The Straits Times spoke to said that the amount of unclaimed CPF monies is likely to rise as the population ages and family sizes shrink.

CPF Board rejects application of 56-year old heart patient to withdraw from his CPF account, saying he is ‘not physically incapacitated’ ~ 15 Nov 2019
According to the official website of the CPF Board, in order to apply to withdraw some of your CPF savings on medical grounds, they need to certify that you:
From 2020, CPF’s Retirement Sum Scheme payout period will be at age 90, instead of at age 95 today ~ 5 Nov 2019
This means that the initial CPF full lump sum withdrawal at age 55 has now become a monthly payout (for 25 years if you start your monthly withdrawal from age 65).

Totally illogical to suggest CPF payout term of 28 years where there is no one to receive balance payout ~ 28 Jan 2019
Let’s get our facts right:
These are facts which no one can challenge. Then why make changes to the CPF Act without asking the members? A referendum is the correct and democratic way to give members a say in accepting the new CPF policies or otherwise. Any CPF policy can not be fixed or approved by the CPF board of directors because they are merely custodians of our monies and they do not represent all Singaporeans.


What happens to my CPF savings when I turn 55? ~ 3 Apr 2019

How much CPF savings can I withdraw from age 55? ~ 1 Mar 2019

MSF rejects social assistance application from 59-year-old senior due to having CPF payout ~ 13 Jun 2018

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 16, 2019, 08:49:19 PM
百餘香港學生寫700封信 細述三罷堵路原因 ~ 16 Nov 2019


China broke its promises to Hong Kong. That’s why the protest movement is back with a vengeance ~ 4 Sep 2019
Beijing has not really let Hong Kong people rule Hong Kong, contrary to the principle underpinning the Basic Law. When dissent is suppressed without resolving the underlying issue, protest just emerges in another form. There is a reason why “one country, two systems” and “Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong” are twin pillars of the Basic Law: they are mutually dependent. One principle cannot work without the other.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 02, 2019, 10:10:51 AM
本来Sime Darby Bhd只是一张图就ok,现在却需要多画两张图。(Need to pay brokerage fees for 3 instead of 1 stock) :thumbsdown:

3只股的价钱加起来,整体来看Sime Darby Bhd还是处于「长期高价位盘整」。

As at 1 Mar 2019, share prices for SIMEPLT (5285) RM5.11 + SIMEPROP (5288) RM1.00 + (SIME 4197) RM2.18 = RM8.29

Sime Darby Bhd's demerger
Sime Darby Bhd's demerger exercise was completed in November 2017, whereby Sime Darby Plantation Bhd (SIMEPLT 5285) and Sime Darby Property Bhd (SIMEPROP 5288) were deconsolidated from Sime Darby Bhd (SIME 4197).


When you find that stock investment using fundamental and technical analysis didn't work, there is another analysis called the big-picture analysis (大局观分析). Fraser and Neave 和 Sime Darby Bhd 的分拆布局 (demerger) 非常相似。

Thai Beverage considers potential $3 billion beer IPO: sources ~ 29 Nov 2019

Frasers Logistics, Frasers Commercial Trust said to be planning to merge ~ 28 Nov 2019
Frasers Property, backed by Thailand’s TCC Assets, is the main sponsor for both REITs.

Frasers Property closed @ S$1.72 on 29 Nov 2019.


Fraser and Neave closed @ S$1.72 on 29 Nov 2019.
Fraser and Neave run-up strongly from @ S$1.85 on 2nd Mar 2009 and peaked @ S$9.75 on 1st Jan 2013 (Chart with no dividends adjustment and others.) For the past 7 years, the stock went all-the-way down and broke its long-term horizontal support @ S$1.85 scored on 2nd Mar 2009 and closed @ at S$1.72 on 29 Nov 2019.




Frasers Logistics, Frasers Commercial Trust said to be planning to merge ~ 28 Nov 2019
Frasers Property, backed by Thailand’s TCC Assets, is the main sponsor for both REITs.

F&N reports 24.5% rise in full-year earnings to $153 mil on broad-based growth ~ 14 Nov 2019

ThaiBev restructures to power Asean beer push ~ 3 Oct 2018
Fraser and Neave (F&N), a food, beverage and publishing conglomerate in Singapore in which Thai Beverage Public Company (ThaiBev) holds a majority stake, has gained approval from Myanmar's investment commission to return to the country's beer market.

Thai whiskey tycoon Charoen takes over Fraser and Neave ~ 3 Feb 2013
In 2005, when Charoen brought all his various alcoholic drinks businesses under a single name, ThaiBev, and announced he would float it on the Bangkok Stock Exchange. One ascetic Buddhist sect organised protests against the ThaiBev stock listing, some outside Mr Charoen's home in Bangkok, which escalated to the point where he was forced to shift the listing to Singapore. A second attempt to list in Bangkok in 2008 also failed.

Thai Tycoon wins control of Singapore's Fraser and Neave ~ 30 Jan 2013
Charoen is likely to tap Fraser and Neave's network in Singapore and Malaysia to distribute Chang Beer, brewed by Thai Beverage, as well as spirits, energy drinks and instant coffee. In Thailand, where he already has an edge, Charoen may in turn market Fraser and Neave's brands. Fraser and Neave's board of directors said on Tuesday (29 Jan 2013) they will step down to make way for Charoen to have a greater say in the Singapore company's future.

After divesting its stakes in Asia Pacific Brewery, Fraser and Neave returned capital of $3.70 per share to shareholders. Following which, in the same year, the group spun off its property arm Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL) [renamed as Frasers Property w.e.f. 1 Feb 2018] and shareholders got a dividend in specie distribution of two FCL shares for every Fraser and Neave share they own. Each share of FCL had a book value of $2.04 then. After adjusting the stock for the capital reduction and dividend in specie exercise, the theoretical residual value for the Fraser and Neave stock should have been about $1.82. However, ever since Fraser and Neave returned to focus on the beverages and dairies operations in 2014, its stock performance has been lacklustre. (When Fraser and Neave was listed on the STI in 2008, the company own Asia Pacific Breweries, Times Publishing and Frasers Centrepoint Limited making it more of a conglomerate than a mere beverage company. In 2012 when Fraser and Neave sold its entire stake in Asia Pacific Breweries for about $6.3 billion to Heineken. It de-merged its property business by listing Frasers Centrepoint Limited (FCL) on the SGX separately. Fraser and Neave was removed from the STI in 2013.)

Fraser and Neave closed @ S$1.72 on 29 Nov 2019.
Fraser and Neave run-up strongly from @ S$1.85 on 2nd Mar 2009 and peaked @ S$9.75 on 1st Jan 2013 (Chart with no dividends adjustment and others.) For the past 7 years, the stock went all-the-way down and broke its long-term horizontal support @ S$1.85 scored on 2nd Mar 2009 and closed @ at S$1.72 on 29 Nov 2019.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 02, 2019, 02:20:04 PM
一場遊戲一場夢 One Game, One Dream

以技术分析的角度对比 Boustead 和 Fraser and Neave 的图形 (long-term yearly chart),就一目了然的看到这两只股票的高峰已过。

Boustead closed @ RM0.965 on 29 Nov 2019.


Fraser and Neave closed @ S$1.72 on 29 Nov 2019.
Fraser and Neave run-up strongly from @ S$1.85 on 2nd Mar 2009 and peaked @ S$9.75 on 1st Jan 2013 (Chart with no dividends adjustment and others.) For the past 7 years, the stock went all-the-way down and broke its long-term horizontal support @ S$1.85 scored on 2nd Mar 2009 and closed @ S$1.72 on 29 Nov 2019.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 08, 2019, 02:11:17 PM
Sembcorp posts 13% drop in 3Q earnings to $71m, dragged by poor-performing Sembmarine ~ 14 Nov 2019
Sembcorp’s 3Q19 earnings tumbled 13% y-o-y to $71m. Its 9M19 revenue dropped 20% y-o-y to $7.3b, while earnings fell 9% y-o-y to $262m.

Sembcorp Marine Q3 loss widens to $52.6m ~ 13 Nov 2019
Sembcorp Marine saw its net loss widen to $52.6m for its third quarter ended Sept 30, from a $29.8m net loss a year ago.

RHB reiterated BUY on CAO, TP S$1.55, up from S$1.50 ~ 4 Nov 2019
CAO profit up 26% for Q3 on lower expenses. EPS stood at 2.77 US cents, up from 2.20 US cents a year ago. No dividend was declared for the quarter, unchanged from a year ago. Revenue for Q3 fell 12.2% to US$5.56 billion, from US$6.33 billion a year ago, mainly from lower oil prices.

Temasek bids to take control of Keppel sparking Sembcorp merger rumours ~ 22 Oct 2019
The acquisition deal could potentially promote a merger between Keppel’s offshore marine unit and its rival Sembcorp Marine as Temasek is already a major shareholder of Sembcorp Marine. The share price of Sembcorp Marine surged by over 11% while shares of its parent Sembcorp Industries increased by about 9.6% on Monday (21 Oct 2019) following Temasek’s announcement of the offer, prompting a query from the Singapore Stock Exchange on the stock’s unusual price movement.

Temasek's pre-conditional partial offer announcement ~ 21 Oct 2019
Temasek is offering to buy control of Singapore conglomerate Keppel Corp in a S$4.1 billion (US$3 billion) deal. The state investor already directly owns over 20% of Keppel. Temasek will make a partial offer to acquire an additional 30.55% of Shares in Keppel. If successful, the Partial Offer will result in Temasek owning an aggregate 51% of Keppel.

KepCorp Q3 net profit falls 30% to S$159 million ~ 18 Oct 2019
KepCorp had reported a fall in net profits in Q2 as well. Net profit was down at $153.4 million for the three months to June 30, which was 38% down from $249.1 million posted in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

KepCorp ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel

KepCorp closed with a white marubozu @ S$6.77 (+0.07, +1%) with 5.63m shares done on 6 Dec 2019.

Immediate support @ S$6.67, immediate resistance @ S$6.82.


Sembcorp ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel

Sembcorp closed with a white marubozu @ S$2.20 (+0.04, +1.8%) with 5.40m shares done on 6 Dec 2019.

Immediate support @ S$2.13, immediate resistance @ S$2.25.


SembCorp Marine ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel

SembCorp Marine closed with a hammer @ S$1.28 (+0.03, +2.4%) with 3.28m shares done on 6 Dec 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.23, immediate, resistance @ S$1.32.


CAO ~ Bearish Symmetrical Triangle formation, critical support @ S$1.16

CAO closed with a hammer @ S$1.22 (-0.02, -1.7%) with 490,000 shares done on 4 Dec 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.19, immediate resistance @ S$1.24.


Performance chart ~ KepCorp, SembCorp Ind, SembCorp Marine and CAO as at 6 Dec 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 10, 2019, 06:02:52 PM
Sometimes when a major shareholder kept buying back his own company's shares; it might not be a positive sign.

SSH David Loh (Non-Executive Director) increased his stake in Centurion by 1m shares @ S$0.44 per share on 3 Dec 2019 ~ 4 Dec 2019
(Up from 56.911% to 57.03% or 478,493,076 to 479,493,076 shares).

‘Copper House’ loses some of its lustre ~ 24 May 2019,%202019.pdf

Centurion ~ Trading in an intermediate upward sloping channel, critical support @ S$0.38

Centurion closed with a hanging man @ S$0.44 (-0.005, -1.1%) with 330,000 shares done on 6 Dec 2019.

Immediate support @ S$0.435, immediate resistance @ S$0.45.


Centurion (weekly) ~ Bearish Descending Triangle Formation, neckline @ S$0.38

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 11, 2019, 09:39:40 AM
Sometimes when a major shareholder kept buying back his own company's shares; it might not be a positive sign.

Parkson Holdings initiated its share buyback program since Apr 2008 (first share buyback done bet. RM6.20 to RM6.70) and had kept buying back its own shares all the way down, until the last purchase done @ RM0.63 recorded as at 31 Jan 2017.

Stock buybacks are a scam (股票回购的陷阱)


Parkson Holdings closed @ RM0.22 on 10 Dec 2019.


Parkson’s loss-making Parkson Retail Asia placed on SGX watchlist ~ 4 Dec 2019
Parkson’s shares slid half a sen lower or 2.17% to 22.5 sen yesterday (3 Dec 2019), valuing it at RM246.12m. PRA, meanwhile, fell 11.11% to S$0.008, valuing it at S$5.39m.

Kenanga downgraded Parkson to "MARKET PERFORM", TP RM0.27 ~ 28 Nov 2019

Parkson Holdings assures of ability to support Singapore unit ~ 20 Oct 2019
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 15, 2019, 03:09:09 PM
Zuolun bro,

Can always buy high and sell high

Like F&N, I buy at sky high 8.82
And waited until it split to frasers property limited to sell at 1.69 and F&N at 3.07 although it is now at $2, I am happy with small profits

F&N run-up strongly from 2009 to 2013 you didn't buy its shares all those years and at the last leg of the longterm uptrend, you jumped in to buy at sky high and held the shares tightly until you made a small profit.

This is called 阿Q精神。

非常诡异。odie 最想买的股票很多都是属于「吹水」股票。十年如一日,从来没有改变过。
(I've known odie via another forum and the most unforgettable thing was the F&N's Heineken-APB M&A deal in Aug 2012.)

F&N building $80m smart, sustainable facility in Tuas that will also boost its R&D capability ~ 4 Dec 2019

Fraser and Neave reports 24.5% rise in full-year earnings to $153 mil on broad-based growth ~ 14 Nov 2019

F&N ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel

F&N closed with a spinning top @ S$1.70 (-0.01, -0.6%) with 230,000 shares done on 13 Dec 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.68, immediate resistance @ S$1.74.


F&N (weekly) ~ Bearish Descending Triangle Breakout, neckline @ S$2.05 ~ 13 Dec 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 17, 2019, 04:00:19 PM
"Centurion has a high gearing of 64%, bond investors would be better off than stock investor as its 85 million 2020 Singdollar bonds issued on 12 Apr 2017 pay 5.25% interest." ~ 13 Nov 2017



在2019年12月8日,当odie读了著名博客 AK71在2019年11月17日推荐买入Centurion之后,就心痒痒很想买Centurion,因为股价在两年之内掉了两成,便宜了很多(S$0.525 - S$0.42 = S$0.105)。

债券投资者如果在2017年4月12日买了S$250,000 Centurion 的债券(利率是5.25%);到了2019年4月12日,当Centurion以100%赎回所发出的旧$85m债券后,又再发出新的S$85m债券,旧的债券投资者可以选择用回之前拿回的本金,买同样数量但利率更高的Centurion债券。(利率调高两次 = 7.75% on April 12, 2019 和 8.0% on Feb 1, 2021)

结论:Centurion 以更高利率的新债还较低利率的旧债来经营;所以 Bond investors are far better off than stock investors.(old interest was @ 5.25%, new interest @ 7.75% on April 12, 2019,  step up to 8.0% by Feb 1, 2021.)

Domestic bonds: Centurion Corporation, 5.25% 12apr2020, SGD (003) (SG7AG2000008, AN1278505)


It was your Centurion, not mine.

I will never buy Centurion at current price because from a TA perspective, it's at the last leg of the impulsive Wave-5.

Coupled with the 74,791,734 outstanding company warrants with an exercise price of S$0.50 per share issued on 27 Oct 2013 had already expired on 27 Oct 2017, i.e. the immediate support @ S$0.50 is shaky.

Centurion has a high gearing of 64%, bond investors would be better off than stock investor as its 85 million 2020 Singdollar bonds issued on 12 Apr 2017 pay 5.25% interest.

Gearing Ratio

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 20, 2019, 11:16:50 AM
Two monkeys were paid unequally: Excerpt from Frans de Waal's TED Talk


Unemployed Singaporean chanced upon a bridging program in NTU meant for foreigners from China ~ 17 Dec 2019
From the main website: NTU runs an academic Bridging Course that has been crafted for a select group of pre-matriculated international students. The curriculum for this intensive Bridging Course has been specially designed and taught by a team of dedicated NTU Professors.

Bridging@NTU is not open for public application.
Commentary: Time to relook racial quotas in Malaysia’s pre-university matriculation programme ~ 1 Jul 2019
In a media interview in early May this year, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was quoted as saying: “We decided to have matriculation classes because we found Malays did not take Higher School Certificate and cannot enter university. So we provided a back door for them. It was entirely meant as a back door for the Malays.”

Brickbats as Malaysia retains ethnic admission quotas for pre-university programme ~ 15 May 2019
Education Minister Maszlee Malik announced on April 24 that places in the programme, commonly referred to as matriculation, will be increased from 25,000 currently to 40,000. This means that non-bumiputera will vie for 4,000 spots, up from the 2,500 currently, under admission quotas that reserve 90% of places for the dominant bumiputera community, largely comprising Malays. However, bumiputeras will also take up more places, from 22,500 currently to 36,000.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 24, 2019, 10:58:49 AM
Turn yourself into a better investor by learning from hedge-fund star Jim Simons’s successes and failures ~ 11 Nov 2019

What the legacy of Jim Simons can teach investors about markets ~ 5 Nov 2019

如何用數學破解股票市場?公開1年內賺120億的方法 ~ 5 Nov 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 31, 2019, 12:00:08 PM
养老爆雷!头牌五毛花千芳遭“社会主义铁拳”牵出大问题 ~ 20 Dec 2019

中共高級五毛花千芳抱怨母親養老證被收繳 ~ 19 Dec 2019


養老機構也會爆雷?當養老變成「坑老」! ~ 29 Nov 2019

2019年农村养老政策作了4大调整,3类农民拿不到养老金,家里有老人的注意了! ~ 9 Jan 2019


6 policy changes implemented in Singapore by Jan 2020 that will affect you financially ~ 31 Dec 2019
In Nov 2019, Minister for Manpower Josephine Teo announced in Parliament that changes will be made to the Retirement Sum Scheme to reduce the payout duration to last till the member is aged 90, down from the current age of 95.

From 2020, CPF’s Retirement Sum Scheme payout period will be capped at age 90, instead of at age 95 today ~ 5 Nov 2019
This means that the initial CPF full lump sum withdrawal at age 55 has now become a monthly payout (for 25 years if you start your monthly withdrawal from age 65).

Totally illogical to suggest CPF payout term of 28 years where there is no one to receive balance payout ~ 28 Jan 2019
Let’s get our facts right:
These are facts which no one can challenge. Then why make changes to the CPF Act without asking the members? A referendum is the correct and democratic way to give members a say in accepting the new CPF policies or otherwise. Any CPF policy can not be fixed or approved by the CPF board of directors because they are merely custodians of our monies and they do not represent all Singaporeans.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: Bealmeena on December 31, 2019, 07:49:35 PM
A couple of months ago I read an article about this man and I liked that it openly told not only about his successes, but also about hard times when he did not work out. In fact, such stories are incredibly inspiring, because you understand that each of us is an ordinary person and anything can happen, so first of all you have to approach everything with knowledge and not to get depressed if something went wrong. And if you analyze the biography of any businessman, you can find the same facts when only willpower and patience led these people to what we admire today.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 01, 2020, 05:50:40 PM
A couple of months ago I read an article about this man and I liked that it openly told not only about his successes, but also about hard times when he did not work out. In fact, such stories are incredibly inspiring, because you understand that each of us is an ordinary person and anything can happen, so first of all you have to approach everything with knowledge and not to get depressed if something went wrong. And if you analyze the biography of any businessman, you can find the same facts when only willpower and patience led these people to what we admire today.

Do you think an overhaul is needed in the Singapore civil service in how we select our leaders (government scholarship)? ~ 24 Dec 2019

Heng Swee Keat’s awkward start to succession ~ 19 Dec 2019


Unemployed Singaporean chanced upon a bridging program in NTU meant for foreigners from China ~ 17 Dec 2019
From the main website: NTU runs an academic Bridging Course that has been crafted for a select group of pre-matriculated international students. The curriculum for this intensive Bridging Course has been specially designed and taught by a team of dedicated NTU Professors.

Bridging@NTU is not open for public application.
  • This is a scholarship program for students picked from China.
  • Every year, there is a new batch of about 100-120 scholars.
  • The students stay at a hostel in NTU, where mentors who are local postgrad NTU students monitor them regularly.
  • From their timetable: It looks like they undergo science subjects. I had asked the interviewer about this; she had mentioned that this was to allow them to familiarize themselves with the scientific terms and concepts in English.
  • After they finish the Bridging Program which is about a year, they would go on to the study the degree.
  • Their welfare is under the Care and Guidance Team at NTU.
  • All their expenses for the Bridging Program, up to their completion of the degree was covered by NTU. The interviewer justified the program by saying that after they graduate, they would pay it forward in Singapore.
Commentary: Time to relook racial quotas in Malaysia’s pre-university matriculation programme ~ 1 Jul 2019
In a media interview in early May this year, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was quoted as saying: “We decided to have matriculation classes because we found Malays did not take Higher School Certificate and cannot enter university. So we provided a back door for them. It was entirely meant as a back door for the Malays.”
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 03, 2020, 12:36:14 PM
Looking ahead to the 2020s: The challenges for retail in a new decade ~ 2 Jan 2020

2019 broke the record for store closings. What about 2020? ~ 1 Jan 2020
More than 9,300 retail locations went dark in 2019. What's next?


Strength of US consumer shows in healthy retail sales ~ 26 Dec 2020
Figures show revenue rise of 3.4% for key holiday shopping season even as footfall declines.


美节日季零售额达到近8800亿美元 实体零售仅增1.2% ~ 26 Dec 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 03, 2020, 01:48:16 PM
S'pore’s emerging rich put their savings in bank accounts, but the ultra-rich put it in Reits ~ 23 Dec 2019


8 retail brands in S'pore that didn't survive 2019 - What went wrong? ~ 16 Dec 2019


Unlike in Singapore, Hong Kong developers loath to spin off properties into Reits ~ 2 Dec 2019

Get rich or die trying: Here are 5 business ideas that just won't work in S'pore ~ 26 Nov 2019


房地产白银时代 REITs 是否会成为掘金之地? ~ 13 Oct 2019

Singapore REITs seen as too expensive after 18% surge this year – 10 Jul 2019


Highly-Leveraged S-REITs:
  • S-REITs have a gearing ratio of 45%, as mandated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
  • The gearing ratio is calculated by taking a REIT’s total borrowings and dividing it by its total assets.
  • If the 45% cap is hit, the REIT will have to raise funds through a rights issue or private placement to pare down debt and bring its gearing ratio down to a more palatable level.
S-REITs ~ “高处不胜寒”。

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 03, 2020, 03:47:46 PM
S$211 million in CPF money left unclaimed over the last 6 years; will more CPF members die before spending their hard-earned monies? ~ 15 Nov 2019
The IPTO (Insolvency and Public Trustee’s Office) received S$63.2 million of unnominated CPF money last year alone, belonging to 3,450 individuals. That’s a lot of money left unclaimed. The question is, why? Lawyers whom The Straits Times spoke to said that the amount of unclaimed CPF monies is likely to rise as the population ages and family sizes shrink.

Totally illogical to suggest CPF payout term of 28 years where there is no one to receive balance payout ~ 28 Jan 2019
Let’s get our facts right:
  • CPF is only a custodian of members’ CPF savings. That means the money belongs to the members.
  • CPF savings is supposed to help members save for their old age. The initial age was 55 years to withdraw full lump sum.
These are facts which no one can challenge. Then why make changes to the CPF Act without asking the members? A referendum is the correct and democratic way to give members a say in accepting the new CPF policies or otherwise. Any CPF policy can not be fixed or approved by the CPF board of directors because they are merely custodians of our monies and they do not represent all Singaporeans.

Online users slam government agency’s justification for disclosing personal details of CPF member ~ 31 Dec 2019
On 27 December (Friday), the Smart Nation and Digital Government Office (SNDGO) under the Prime Minister’s Office, released a statement saying that it disclosed the personal details of a sick and depressed woman who attempted suicide multiple times to obtain her Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings for her family because it wanted to provide the public with correct and relevant facts in the case.

老人钱哪去了?大陆养老机构各式承诺频爆雷 ~ 30 Dec 2019


What happens to unclaimed CPF savings after Singaporeans pass on? ~ 23 Dec 2019
If there is no CPF Nomination made, and in accordance with Rule 9 of Singapore's Intestate Succession Act, the government would be legally entitled to the entire estate if there are no surviving family members.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 06, 2020, 11:51:47 AM
Some SE Asian nations dither on joining India-based solar alliance ~ 6 Jan 2020
Some of these nations are linking joining International Solar Alliance with Delhi’s reluctance to join RCEP.

CECA-based influx of Indians in Singapore piques locals ~ 14 Dec 2019
One such incident which was widely reported on social media refers to an India-born naturalised Singaporean called Ramesh Erramalli whose wife is a born Singaporean. Mr Erramalli was reportedly caught on closed circuit TV yelling vulgarities at a security guard outside his apartment building, telling the hapless worker he had paid the Singapore dollar equivalent of US$1.1 million for his flat and should not have to fork out more money for guest parking. “I’m not staying in HDB, you know” he added, referring to the subsidised Housing Development Board flats in which perhaps 70% of Singaporeans live. That remark embodied the supposed snobbery of well-heeled expatriate Indians. An added outrage may have been the fact that while Mr Erramalli is Indian, the security guard was Chinese and, therefore, in a sense more of a native. No wonder the video of the exchange soon went viral. Mr Erramalli was told to “go home” and not bring his country’s caste system to the city-state.


Why did India suddenly pull out of the world’s largest trade deal? ~ 9 Dec 2019
China pushed to finalize the RCEP deal as it faces slowing growth in part due to its trade war with the U.S. But at the very last minute, even after the leaders’ photo was taken, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi pulled his country out of the deal. It was thus concerned that the RCEP would lead to even more cheap Chinese products flooding into India, a risk that is heightened by excess capacity across a range of Chinese industries, at a time of economic slowdown.

Singapore has talent shortage and India is a talent surplus country, says Tommy Koh on CECA ~ 23 Nov 2019


ST says number of local IT grads set to grow while CECA continues to import IT workers from India ~ 18 Nov 2019
Under Article 9.3 of CECA, all the “intra-corporate transferees” are to be exempted from any “labour market testing” or “economic needs testing”. That means, economic needs testing like Singapore’s fair consideration framework which ensures fair hiring of Singaporeans cannot be applied to “intra-corporate transferees”. To top it all, Article 9.6 even allows the “intra-corporate transferees” to bring in their spouses or dependents to work here too.

Chan didn’t disclose that there is no economic needs test or quotas on agreed services under CECA ~ 11 Nov 2019
CECA allows “intra-corporate transferees” to work for up to 8 years in host country. However, Singapore has been quite liberal in granting work passes to Indian nationals working in Singapore since CECA was signed in 2005. Under CECA, it enables movement of people between the 2 countries:
Lim Tean responds to Chan Chun Sing on CECA ~ 10 Nov 2019

DBS makes net profit of S$2.8m in India in last fiscal year thanks to CECA ~ 4 Nov 2019


Prof Tommy Koh’s article on Singapore PMETs: My personal encounter on state of qualified PMETs in Singapore ~ 30 Oct 2019's-article-on-sg-pmets:-my-personal-encounter-on-state-of-qualified-pmets-in-singapore
The jobless PMET crisis is worse than I myself imagined whereby Employers, Recruitment Agencies, the government agencies themselves seemed like not working together to employ SG PMETS from 40+ age group.

JP Morgan, employer of man who verbally abused condo security officer, reminds staff to be respectful ~ 29 Oct 2019

Singapore racist Indian Ramesh Erramalli abuse elderly Chinese security guard at Eight Riversuites ~ 28 Oct 2019

“We don’t want more Singaporeans to join the ranks of the angry voters” – Diplomat Tommy Koh cautions 4G leaders ~ 3 Oct 2019


Private-hire car operators to be licensed from next year as Parliament passes new regulatory framework ~ 6 Aug 2019
All ride-hail and street-hail service providers with a fleet size of more than 800 vehicles will have to be licensed from June 2020, after Parliament passed the Point-to-Point (P2P) Passenger Transport Industry Bill on Tuesday (Aug 6).

Commentary: Driving a Grab full-time right after graduation. Should you do it? ~ 14 Jan 2019

Why do Singapore NTU/NUS graduates end up driving Uber/Grab? ~ 7 Jan 2018
Everything you need to know about being a private hire car driver:

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 12, 2020, 08:00:34 AM
蔡英文總統大勝,習近平、林鄭成最大助力! ~ 12 Jan 2020

Taiwan’s Tsai wins by landslide in stinging rebuke to China ~ 12 Jan 2020
Taiwanese re-elected President Tsai Ing-wen by a landslide on Saturday, a stern rebuke to China which has tried both military threats and economic inducements to get the island to accept its rule, and potentially ushering in further tension with Beijing.


Taiwan elections: Tsai Ing-wen re-elected as president as rival Han Kuo-yu concedes defeat ~ 11 Jan 2020

蔡英文的好运,北京的愚蠢 ~ 10 Jan 2020
Hong Kong police aren’t even doing their real jobs any more. Carrie Lam must restore discipline in the force ~ 10 Jan 2020
As police brutality continues, so the government continues to fall out of favour. According to the latest poll, only 12% of respondents would vote for Lam if they could, while 81% would not. Clearly, police are Lam’s last instrument of control. Hence her reluctance to go against them or green-light an investigation into their actions.


Shock details of embattled leader Carrie Lam emerge as tensions soar ~ 2 Jul 2019
Pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily and the BBC confirmed in 2017 when Mrs Lam became Chief Executive, she renounced her British citizenship in 2007 to become Hong Kong’s Secretary of Development. But some are likely to see Mrs Lam’s husband and sons still having British citizenship as an admission that an insurance policy is needed against Chinese rule. Mrs Lam is currently facing calls to resign from protestors after clashes with police over a controversial extradition bill with China.

Hong Kong’s Carrie Lam: ‘The nanny’ turned ‘Beijing puppet’ ~ 13 Jun 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on January 13, 2020, 10:53:52 AM
Matching Vietnamese brides with Chinese men, marriage brokers find good business – and sometimes love ~ 11 Jan 2020


Raped, beaten and sold in China: Vietnam's kidnapped young brides ~ 3 Aug 2019
More young girls from Vietnam are ending up in forced marriages in China, where the gender imbalance has created a demand for foreign brides, as Insight discovers.

Vietnamese brides: How marrying foreign men impacts the women's families back home ~ 7 Jun 2018

Taiwan looks to foreign brides' children to bridge gap between lands ~ 4 Jun 2018

Fewer Singaporean men finding love with foreign wives ~ 13 Nov 2016

Singaporean Ken Lai, 49, and his China-born wife Xu Xueling, 26.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 02, 2020, 01:45:08 PM
Satellite photos show how deserted the streets of Wuhan are ~ 1 Feb 2020


Coronavirus: German air force evacuates citizens from Wuhan; gives China 10,000 protective suits ~ 1 Feb 2020

Yangtze bridge lets people beat Hubei lockdown ~ 1 Feb 2020
They enter or leave province on foot, raising doubts over efficacy of move to contain virus.

Coronavirus outbreak: Mother of sick daughter from virus-hit region pleads for help ~ 1 Feb 2020

Chinese man busted paddling wooden tub across Yangtze River to escape virus lockdown ~ 1 Feb 2020

Travellers beat China virus lockdown via bridge over the Yangtze ~ 31 Jan 2020

China to bring overseas Wuhan citizens back to virus-hit city ~ 31 Jan 2020

武漢返鄉住戶竟遭封門 7壯漢扛鐵桿隔離 ~ 30 Jan 2020


组图:武汉肺炎爆发 大陆现各类文革式标语 ~ 31 Jan 2020


红色疯狂年代的影像记录者李振盛:我拍下的那些疯狂文革照 ~ 19 Nov 2018


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 02, 2020, 01:49:17 PM
武汉P4实验室疑为毒源 王延轶所长上位疑云 ~ 2 Feb 2020
武汉肺炎疫情持续扩散,国际聚焦武汉肺炎新型冠状病毒源头疑来自于中国科学院武汉病毒研究。而武汉病毒研究所所长王延轶年仅39岁,先生舒红兵是中共政协委员、国家科学院院士。王延轶年轻上位、背景不凡亦成为舆论关注焦点。武汉P4实验室是中科院武汉病毒所下辖机构,年仅39岁的王延轶已是现任中国科学院武汉病毒研究所所长。王延轶,1981年出生,先后在北京大学、美国科罗拉多大学健康科学中心(University of Colorado Health Sciences Center)、武汉大学获得学士、硕士和博士学位。


China coronavirus: Labs worldwide scramble to analyse live samples ~ 31 Jan 2020
Scientists need the pathogen to probe the biology of the emerging infection and to develop tests, drugs and vaccines.

The Wuhan virus is not a lab-made bioweapon ~ 29 Jan 2020

Coronavirus Special: "Systematic Problems with China's Virus Research Labs" - Tim Trevan ~ 29 Jan 2020

Coronavirus outbreak a result of Chinese biological espionage? ~ 28 Jan 2020
Did Chinese biological warfare program agents smuggle the virus into the country?

China will admit coronavirus coming from its P4 lab ~ 25 Jan 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 03, 2020, 10:11:42 AM
央視記者直擊武漢紅十字會倉庫 遭保安阻擋 ~ 2 Feb 2020

紅十字會收捐贈物資堆積如山 武漢協和醫院領物資碰壁 被逼「闢謠」 ~ 1 Feb 2020

韓國人從武漢回國隨即隔離 警車護送! ~ 30 Jan 2020

武漢肺炎令全國恐慌,成龍春晚大唱「問我國家哪像染病」 ~ 27 Jan 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 03, 2020, 10:22:09 AM
Chinese Xiamen Airlines' two airplanes bring 199 people from Hubei province stranded overseas back ~ 1 Feb 2020

China sends two flights to bring back Wuhan citizens from Thailand and Malaysia ~ 31 Jan 2020
China’s aviation authority has dispatched two Xiamen Airlines flights to bring back Wuhan citizens to the Chinese city from Bangkok in Thailand and Kota Kinabalu in Malaysia.



Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 03, 2020, 01:43:49 PM
火神山内部视频  Inside Wuhan Vulcan Mountain Hospital ~ 2 Feb 2020


Wuhan virus: Chinese army to oversee new hospital built in days to treat patients in Wuhan ~ 2 Feb 2020


Coronavirus: How China builds two hospitals at top speed at the heart of the virus outbreak ~ 31 Jan 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 07, 2020, 02:54:53 PM
Chinese driver wears 12 face masks amid coronavirus outbreak ~ 6 Feb 2020

The coronavirus outbreak could derail Xi Jinping’s dreams of a Chinese century ~ 6 Feb 2020


Chief Executive Carrie Lam tells officials not to wear masks amid supply shortage ~ 5 Feb 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 08, 2020, 09:58:52 AM
Minister Chan Chun Sing calls for public to remain calm and not hoard items unnecessarily as public goes into a panic buying spree ~ 7 Feb 2020




谣传内地工厂停工 香港全城抢厕纸 ~ 6 Feb 2020



Coronavirus: Desperate scenes as 10,000 queue for masks at Hong Kong industrial estate ~ 5 Feb 2020

Thousands of masks exported out of Singapore while local demand remains high ~ 4 Feb 2020


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 08, 2020, 02:46:48 PM
武漢肺炎病毒人工合成?國際輿論鎖定石正麗 ~ 7 Feb 2020

美议员:武汉肺炎病毒或来自中共P4实验室 ~ 6 Feb 2020
针对武汉肺炎的爆发,美国共和党参议员科顿(Tom Cotton)认为这种病毒可能来自于中共的生物安全等级4级(或P4)的实验室。


到底是谁想毁灭中国人 ~ 3 Feb 2020


《自然》期刊当年曾发表一篇名为“一种类SARS循环性蝙蝠冠状病毒展现感染人体的潜力(A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence)”的论文,武汉病毒研究所的葛行义和石正丽是该论文共同作者。


Whistleblower doctor who got in trouble for warning about coronavirus reported dead in China ~ 6 Feb 2020
Li was reprimanded by local police for "spreading rumors" about the illness in late December, according to news reports.


A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin ~ 3 Feb 2020
Since the SARS outbreak 18 years ago, a large number of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoV) have been discovered in their natural reservoir host, bats1-4. Previous studies indicated that some of those bat SARSr-CoVs have the potential to infect humans5-7. Here we report the identification and characterization of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which caused an epidemic of acute respiratory syndrome in humans in Wuhan, China. The epidemic, which started from 12 December 2019, has caused 2,050 laboratory-confirmed infections with 56 fatal cases by 26 January 2020. Full-length genome sequences were obtained from five patients at the early stage of the outbreak. They are almost identical to each other and share 79.5% sequence identify to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, it was found that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus. The pairwise protein sequence analysis of seven conserved non-structural proteins show that this virus belongs to the species of SARSr-CoV. The 2019-nCoV virus was then isolated from the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of a critically ill patient, which can be neutralized by sera from several patients. Importantly, we have confirmed that this novel CoV uses the same cell entry receptor, ACE2, as SARS-CoV.


Discovery of novel bat coronaviruses in South China that use the same receptor as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 10, 2020, 03:37:11 PM
《約在春天相見》 武汉肺炎版《愿荣光归于香港》! ~ 9 Feb 2020

武漢疫情大爆發,中國各大城市街道及重點交通要道街進行大消毒 ~ 8 Feb 2020

《願榮光歸香港》MV 合唱團版 《Glory to Hong Kong》 ~ 31 Aug 2019

Hong Kong protests: Kowloon mosque gets sprayed blue by police water cannon ~ 20 Oct 2019

Drone over Hong Kong protests ~ 15 Jun 2019

Xi Jinping and the Chinese dream ~ 4 May 2013
IN 1793 a British envoy, Lord Macartney, arrived at the court of the Chinese emperor, hoping to open an embassy. He brought with him a selection of gifts from his newly industrialising nation. The Qianlong emperor, whose country then accounted for about a third of global GDP, swatted him away: “Your sincere humility and obedience can clearly be seen,” he wrote to King George III, but we do not have “the slightest need for your country’s manufactures”. The British returned in the 1830s with gunboats to force trade open, and China’s attempts at reform ended in collapse, humiliation and, eventually, Maoism.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 18, 2020, 03:29:41 PM


近日習近平提生物技術立法、變相承認病毒被人繆用 ~ 17 Feb 2020

不滿政府隱匿肺炎疫情 北大教授用崇禎皇帝影射習近平 ~ 7 Feb 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 20, 2020, 11:59:56 AM
罕見之舉,美國將5家中共官媒定為「外國使團」;專家指中共喉舌「附加任務」或受阻;與外國代理人區別何在? ~ 19 Feb 2020

紅衛兵再現 中共開啟「毛式防疫模式」 ~ 16 Feb 2020

白宮質疑中共掩蓋疫情 川普:永遠不知真假 ~ 14 Feb 2020

中國進入"封省模式" 白宮質疑中共掩蓋疫情 ~ 13 Feb 2020

Has China's biggest online news site revealed 'real' coronavirus death figures? Screen grabs showing 24,589 death toll ~ 6 Feb 2020


武漢疫情,中共掩蓋疫情真相,令病毒在全世界擴散 ~ 3 Feb 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 22, 2020, 03:15:39 PM
Coronavirus: Which countries have confirmed cases? ~ 22 Feb 2020
Cases of the virus, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, have been reported around the world.

人民币兑美元中间价调贬14个基点,报7.0026 ~ 20 Feb 2020

The economic effects of the COVID-19 coronavirus around the world ~ 17 Feb 2020

US revokes WTO subsidy preferences for some developing nations, including China, India and Singapore ~ 11 Feb 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 22, 2020, 05:48:20 PM
Health officials worry as untraceable virus clusters emerge ~ 22 Feb 2020

South Korea reported an eight-fold jump in COVID-19 cases, most from Daegu and nearby areas, bringing country’s total to 433 ~ 22 Feb 2020

6,000 South Korean couples hold mass wedding despite coronavirus fears ~ 7 Feb 2020
Thousands of couples — some in facemasks — tie the knot in a mass Unification Church wedding, despite concerns in South Korea over the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Including families and visitors, a total of 30,000 people attended the ceremony where they also celebrated the now passed away leader Moon Sun-Myung’s centenary and his 60th Holy Wedding Anniversary.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 25, 2020, 10:26:29 AM
Political drama erases RM43.4b market cap from Bursa ~ 25 Feb 2020

Malaysian politics in turmoil: Is Mahathir-Anwar alliance over? ~ 24 Feb 2020

Salary freeze for all Temasek employees, senior management may take voluntary pay cut ~ 24 Feb 2020

New private home sales rebound after year-end holidays; strongest January showing in 7 years ~ 17 Feb 2020


Dow plunges 1,000 points on coronavirus fears, 3.5% drop is worst in two years ~ 24 Feb 2020


Virus pushes beyond Asia, taking aim at Europe, Mideast ~ 24 Feb 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 27, 2020, 11:19:12 AM
Coronavirus spread triggers economic downturn fears ~ 27 Feb 2020

Coronavirus exposed America's heavy reliance on China for medicines ~ 27 Feb 2020
Exposing the risks of America’s dependence on China for medicine. What danger it would bring to the American public if the coronavirus epidemic continues for an extensive period of time; and if such dominance in medicine could be weaponized by the Chinese government after all?

Could China's coronavirus outbreak hurt the global drug industry? ~ 26 Feb 2020


Romney: Trump administration ‘substantially’ unprepared for coronavirus outbreak ~ 25 Feb 2020

Coronavirus: Paracetamol prices rise by 40% amid outbreak of deadly virus ~ 18 Feb 2020


All our drugs to treat the coronavirus depend on Chinese suppliers ~ 17 Feb 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 27, 2020, 03:06:18 PM
Japanese woman confirmed as coronavirus case for second time, weeks after initial recovery ~ 27 Feb 2020
The woman, a resident of Osaka, in western Japan, tested positive on Wednesday (26 Feb 2020) after developing a sore throat and chest pains. She first tested positive in late January and was discharged from hospital after recovering on Feb. 1.

武漢肺炎:日本境內確診累計894例 北海道39例疫情最嚴重 ~ 27 Feb 2020

日本直擊 居形船驚人無障礙播毒 | 社區感染 ~ 26 Feb 2020

日本感染者达850人 七国限制日本人入境 ~ 25 Feb 2020

武汉肺炎:日本疫情渐趋失控 暴露日本社会文化弊病 ~ 17 Feb 2020

日本冈山举办裸祭万人争夺“宝木” 超密切接触引发疫情担忧 ~ 16 Feb 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on February 28, 2020, 05:22:36 PM
财新网:去年底已隐匿疫情 疑促销毁已有样本 ~ 28 Feb 2020

武汉病毒所美女所长的开挂人生路 饶毅:请辞职 ~ 23 Feb 2020

隽言隽语:两个女人的内斗,导致了武汉疫情? ~ 6 Feb 2020

【朱令鉈中毒事件】感謝室友當年不殺之恩! ~ 23 Feb 2020

朱令案白宫请愿书被指事实错误 亲友不支持请愿 ~ 8 May 2013


白宫请愿令朱令案成微博敏感话题 ~ 6 May 2013

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on March 19, 2020, 11:21:42 AM
Coronavirus: Scientists tackle the theories on how it started ~ 18 Mar 2020
Without evidence Zhao Lijian, a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry, suggested on Twitter that the virus could have been brought to Wuhan by the US army.

Trump angers Beijing with 'Chinese virus' tweet ~ 17 Mar 2020
China has reacted angrily after US President Donald Trump referred to the coronavirus as “Chinese”.

China is no role model for coronavirus containment - or anything else ~ 15 Mar 2020
Since the explosion of coronavirus cases in Wuhan, the Chinese government drastically cracked down to stop the spread of the potentially fatal virus. But what about just prior to that?


Chinese diplomat promotes conspiracy theory that US military brought coronavirus to Wuhan ~ 14 Mar 2020
A prominent Chinese official has promoted a conspiracy theory that the United States military could have brought the novel coronavirus to China -- and it did not originate in the city of Wuhan, as thought. Posting to his more than 300,000 followers on Twitter, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian republished a video of Robert Redfield, the director for the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, addressing a US Congressional committee on March 11.

No quick solution to treat coronavirus despite hopeful leads ~ 13 Mar 2020

Coronavirus: China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17 ~ 13 Mar 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on March 22, 2020, 12:26:01 PM
Coronavirus: Fireworks in Wuhan as checkpoints are taken down, other cities in China ease controls ~ 21 Mar 2020

Medical workers from Henan give a thumbs up to Wuhan before leaving the city on Thursday. Wuhan has reported no new cases for a third day.


Then and now: How coronavirus turned the world's busiest cities into ghost towns ~ 20 Mar 2020


Malaysia: Melaka becomes ghost town during Covid-19 movement order period ~ 20 Mar 2020

Malaysia: Shopping malls’ eateries face sluggish sales amid Covid-19 movement control order ~ 18 Mar 2020

Coronavirus: Asian nations face virus battle amid WHO warning ~ 18 Mar 2020


“Each city is a ghost city”: Life in Italy under full coronavirus lockdown ~ 18 Mar 2020

An abandoned street in Treviso, Italy.


The Piazza di Spagna, a popular tourist destination in Rome, stands mostly empty.


Coronavirus: European Union seals borders to most outsiders ~ 17 Mar 2020
The European Union will ban travelers from outside from the bloc for 30 days in an unprecedented move to seal its borders amid the coronavirus crisis. The measure is expected to apply to 26 EU states as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.


Photos showing the devastating effects of the coronavirus on business ~ 17 Mar 2020
As COVID-19 spreads across the globe, every corner of daily life is being hit.

A pedestrian passes through Brookfield Place, a retail hub at the World Financial Center in New York, on March 16. New York joined with Connecticut and New Jersey to close bars, restaurants, and movie theaters starting Monday night.


Pedestrians walk by the Castro Theatre in San Francisco announcing its closed due to a California statewide ordinance banning gatherings of more than 250 people on March 15.


7th Avenue Times Square is seen nearly empty during a regular day in New York City on March 14.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 01, 2020, 11:15:01 AM
How coronavirus is spreading across the world ~ 1 Apr 2020
The Covid-19 outbreak, which was first reported in Wuhan in December 2019, has spread to more than 202 countries and regions outside mainland China.

Singapore banks offer to defer mortgage, SME loan payments ~ 1 Apr 2020
Three major Singapore banks are suffering from the economic slowdown, which has driven down interest rates and increased the risk of loan defaults. DBS shares dropped 0.9% at S$18.40 as of 9:21 a.m., taking this year’s decline to almost 29%. UOB shares were little changed, with a year-to-date drop of 26%. So were OCBC’s, whose stock lost 22% in 2020.

Can Singapore's coronavirus success last? ~ 31 Mar 2020

Singapore eases monetary policy as economy is hit ~ 30 Mar 2020
Singapore PM tells CNN: Coronavirus could take years to run its course, world must brace itself ~ 30 Mar 2020


Medical experts from China and S. Korea underline importance of wearing masks during COVID-19 pandemic — contrary to WHO’s recommendation ~ 30 Mar 2020
Wearing masks in the time of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak — contrary to the World Health Organization (WHO)’s advisory — is crucial in reducing the risk of spreading the virus, two medical experts opined.


You need to listen to this leading COVID-19 expert from South Korea ~ 27 Mar 2020

Singapore launches US$60 bln facility for banks to support dollar funding ~ 26 Mar 2020
Last week, the MAS said it had established a US$60 billion swap facility with the Fed, as part of coordinated central bank actions to calm financial markets, which are being hammered by fears the coronavirus pandemic will trigger a global recession.

Why did the World Health Organisation wait so long to declare coronavirus a pandemic? ~ 13 Mar 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 04, 2020, 06:08:01 PM
Get ready for 'stagflation' ~ 3 Apr 2020

UN fears of large-scale famine because of the pandemic coronavirus ~ 3 Apr 2020
“The coronavirus pandemic gives reason to fear that hunger will become a reality for many millions of other people. The need for urgent food aid will only increase.”


Dairy farmers forced to dump milk ~ 2 Apr 2020

What are the challenges of battling coronavirus in India?  ~ 2 Apr 2020

COVID-19 lockdown chokes sales of milk across India, dairy farmers in distress ~ 1 Apr 2020

联合国粮农组织:如不采取措施,4月至5月就会有粮食供应危机 ~ 30 Mar 2020


Coronavirus fear grips workers in India ~ 29 Mar 2020

Locked down India struggles as workers flee cities  ~ 28 Mar 2020

Explainer: How the coronavirus crisis is affecting food supply ~ 27 Mar 2020

Food workers getting coronavirus is the latest threat to world supply ~ 27 Mar 2020


Grocery stores are the coronavirus tipping point ~ 24 Mar 2020
Even one of the last #~ of normal American life could not escape the outbreak.


The coronavirus economic 'disaster' scenario: Stagflation ~ 10 Mar 2020
But the threat of stagflation -- the term used to describe an economic slowdown coupled with rising prices -- is real.

The coming coronavirus stagflation ~ 5 Mar 2020

What is stagflation?
Stagflation is a seemingly contradictory condition described by slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment, or economic stagnation, which is at the same time accompanied by rising prices (i.e. inflation). Stagflation can also be alternatively defined as a period of inflation combined with a decline in gross domestic product (GDP).

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 07, 2020, 10:04:36 AM

Fight Covid-19 first, Singapore polls must wait — Lee Hsien Yang ~ 4 Apr 2020
During the SARS outbreak, schools were shut 26 days after the first patient was detected. This time, it has taken more than 70 days since the first Covid-19 case was reported on 23 January. Singaporeans cannot be blamed if they wonder: if SARS was a lesson, why this inordinate delay?

Coronavirus: Singapore could hold elections during outbreak ~ 18 Mar 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 08, 2020, 08:51:46 AM
Covid-19: Restoring trust in government is key to addressing panic buying ~ 6 Apr 2020
Panic buying is edged on by profound mistrust of our political leaders, both in terms of what they said (or did not say) and what they were capable of. Governments have been unable to control public panic simply because people make sense of three hard truths.
Singapore must be ready for supply disruptions due to global COVID-19 lockdowns: Chan Chun Sing ~ 6 Apr 2020
“For instance, while the Government has worked with Malaysia to ensure that goods, especially food and essentials, continue to flow between our countries following the implementation of Malaysia’s Movement Control Order, we cannot be certain how long this will last as the global COVID-19 outbreak continues to escalate,” he said.

Singaporeans swamp Ikea stores ahead of month-long lockdown ~ 6 Apr 2020
Large crowds were seen at Ikea outlets here over the weekend following the government’s announcement on April 3 that schools and all non-essential workplaces will be closed from Tuesday (7 Apr 2020) to curb the spread of Covid-19 in the republic.


Long queues at Singapore supermarkets ahead of month-long lockdown ~ 5 Apr 2020
Hours after the Singapore government announced a stepping up of measures to contain the spread of Covid-19, snaking queues were spotted at supermarkets across the island, with at least 20 people in line at any one time.


Minister Chan Chun Sing on Malaysia lockdown: "We have sufficient food supplies for all Singaporeans" ~ 18 Mar 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 08, 2020, 12:33:20 PM
Logan’s Roadhouse closes 261 restaurants, may not reopen ~ 6 Apr 2020
Logan’s owner, Craftworks Holdings, said the shutdown of its 261 locations comes after a lender withdrew financing after the company filed bankruptcy in early March. That change means the coronavirus-hiatus may become permanent.


After $50 billion of losses, no one comes to save the mortgage market ~ 4 Apr 2020

Losing sleep and weight over the MCO ~ 2 Apr 2020
Christy Ng, fashion entrepreneur and founder of shoe retailer and manufacturer Christy Ng Sdn Bhd, has not had a proper night’s sleep since March 17. She has lost 3kg and is on the verge of depression.

What is a loan covenant?

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 10, 2020, 12:14:42 PM
Singapore reports a record 287 new COVID-19 cases, total at 1,910 ~ 10 Apr 2020

Fool’s gold in a global pandemic ~ 9 Apr 2020


Coronavirus could spark a financial crisis for struggling countries, Singapore’s trade minister warns ~ 9 Apr 2020
Covid-19: Should the public wear face masks? ~ 9 Apr 2020
Covid-19: FairPrice urges all shoppers to wear masks in stores ~ 9 Apr 2020


Taiwan's coronavirus success bolsters case for joining WHO, experts say ~ 9 Apr 2020

Lessons from Taiwan’s experience with COVID-19 ~ 7 Apr 2020


Can Singapore's coronavirus success last? ~ 31 Mar 2020

You need to listen to this leading COVID-19 expert from South Korea ~ 27 Mar 2020

Coronavirus: Inside Taiwan and Singapore’s health and social welfare responses ~ 22 Mar 2020


Rational use of face masks in the COVID-19 pandemic ~ 20 Mar 2020

'Vaccines won't work': US virologist breaks down COVID-19, how to curb spread ~ 18 Mar 2020

Why Taiwan handles coronavirus outbreak better than Singapore ~ 13 Mar 2020
Singapore reported signs of panic buying due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) this week. How did this happen in a city generally known for its perceived stability? How is it that Taiwan, a close neighbor of China, has managed the crisis with more grace?


What we can learn from Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong about handling coronavirus ~ 13 Mar 2020


Blogger Roy Ngerng criticises Singapore’s top-down approach of coronavirus strategy, citing lack of people’s involvement ~ 12 Mar 2020


How Taiwan and Singapore have contained the Coronavirus ~ 11 Mar 2020


Singapore Minister Chan discusses coronavirus outbreak, economy ~ 4 Mar 2020

SCCCI: Leaked recording of Minister Chan’s closed-door discussion “unacceptable and deeply disappointing” ~ 19 Feb 2020
In the recording, Mr Chan can be heard describing the panic buying as as “xia suay” or “disgraceful”, adding that he was “ashamed” by these people who gave into panic and rush to stockpile essential items due to fear of the outbreak, calling them idiots.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 10, 2020, 05:30:02 PM
東方衛視記者張經義稱來自台灣 中國網友出征罵翻 ~ 9 Apr 2020

特朗普:Where are you from?

張經義:I am from Taiwan.






美国之音:假外媒、真外宣?凤凰女记者白宫提问遭特朗普质疑 ~ 6 Apr 2020

“你替中国工作吗?” 特朗普白宫记者会上反问凤凰女记者。


Blood Feud: Ministers ‘no longer discounting’ theory coronavirus leaked from Chinese lab after staff ‘sprayed with animal blood’ ~ 6 Apr 2020

Bat out of hell: Chinese virus expert filmed catching bats fuels conspiracy coronavirus was caused by Wuhan scientists ~ 2 Apr 2020

A bat is caught and then taken away to study.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 11, 2020, 01:51:26 PM
武汉光谷步行街数百商户上街游行遭镇压 ~ 10 Apr 2020


Wuhan rent protest shows unrest brewing in China after lockdown ~ 10 Apr 2020


Parliament: Law compelling landlords to pass on property tax rebates to tenants 'doesn't make them worse off', says DPM Heng ~ 7 Apr 2020

Tears and fears for landlords and commercial tenants locked in standoff over coronavirus shutdown ~ 7 Apr 2020


CDL steps up rental rebates for retail tenants; PropNex rolls out support for property agents ~ 6 Apr 2020


In Europe, landlords in peril as retail chains refuse to pay rent ~ 6 Apr 2020*-refuse-to-pay-rent
More than 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) of debt is secured against commercial real estate in Germany, France and the U.K. alone, according to Cass Business School. In Britain, a nation of shopkeepers whose stores are almost all closed, interest on about 180 billion pounds ($224 billion) of commercial property debt is due over the next few weeks.


An analysis of the U.K.’s top malls by Cass Business School senior research fellow Nicole Lux found a 10% drop in rents could lead to a funding shortfall of about 6 billion pounds.


Lockdown effect: Restaurants, cinemas and retailers at malls seek zero rentals till May ~ 3 Apr 2020
India’s largest restaurant chains, retailers and multiplexes including McDonald’s, Jubilant FoodWorks-operated Domino’s Pizza, Speciality Restaurants, Reliance Retail, Future Group, Spencer’s Retail and PVR have written individually to mall owners invoking the force majeure clause and have sought waiver of rentals up till May amid the lockdown. They have cited zero revenues in the immediate term and a drop of at least 50% in revenues for several months to come. Small businesses in malls have also made similar demands.

Lululemon CEO: Some retailers will be able to ‘weather’ coronavirus pandemic. Others won’t ~ 2 Apr 2020

Coronavirus pandemic raises concerns that some retailers will run out of cash ~ 31 Mar 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 12, 2020, 10:06:27 AM
Singapore reports 191 new COVID-19 cases, total at 2,299; 8 death and 119 untraceble cases ~ 12 Apr 2020
Three newly identified clusters, all at foreign worker dormitories - Westlite Woodlands dormitory, North Coast Lodge and Cassia @ Penjuru -  were reported as well.

Coronavirus: Two more worker dormitories declared as isolation areas, bringing total to 7 ~ 11 Apr 2020

Coronavirus: 699 Singapore citizens, residents evacuated from India ~ 11 Apr 2020
Singapore Airlines will be operating a one off repatriation flight for Singapore Citizens and Singapore Permanent Residents in India on 9 Apr 2020.
Details as follows:
SQ423|09APR (DEL-BOM-SIN) operated by 9V-SMW.
STD: 2100
STD: 2340


Coronavirus: Should the world worry about Singapore's virus surge? ~ 10 Apr 2020
"This is a really hard disease to contain."


Taiwan is flattening the curve. Singapore is locked down. Inside their ‘second wave’ coronavirus responses ~ 10 Apr 2020
Taiwan and Singapore have both been held up as models in the global fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as of the time of writing, Taiwan has managed to keep its total cases below 400 while Singapore’s cases have escalated to more than 2,000. This is something Taiwan has also recognized—Taiwan’s current COVID-19 strategy relies on social distancing guidelines to keep people apart in order to cut off community transmission, and where not possible, to use face masks as a barrier to protect against COVID-19 infection.


New daily imported cases in Taiwan and Singapore from March 3 to April 10, 2020.


Total imported cases in Taiwan and Singapore from March 1 to April 10, 2020.


New daily domestic and imported cases in Singapore from March 10 to April 10, 2020.


Total domestic and imported cases in Singapore from March 20 to April 10, 2020.


New daily domestic and imported cases in Taiwan from March 10 to April 10, 2020.


Total domestic cases in Taiwan and Singapore from March 1 to April 10, 2020.


Covid-19: Changi Airport’s Terminal 2 to suspend operations for 18 months to save running costs, says Khaw Boon Wan ~ 6 Apr 2020
- T2 to suspend operations from 1 May 2020 till end November 2021 (18 months).
- SQ to consolidate operations to T3 only.
- Other airlines at T2 to shift to T1, T3 or T4.
- Upgrading works to be completed 1 year ahead of schedule (original completion date 2024).
- Airport development levy to be waived from 13 April 2020 to 31 March 2021.


The Asian countries that beat Covid-19 have to do it again ~ 6 Apr 2020
Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan had flattened the curve. Then travelers from the US and Europe began reimporting the virus.


Fears grow in India of untraceable coronavirus carriers ~ 2 Apr 2020

In India, doctors evicted over infection fears amid expected flood of coronavirus cases ~ 30 Mar 2020

Singapore Airlines cuts almost all flights amid travel restrictions ~ 23 Mar 2020
Until at least the end of April 2020 there will be flights to just five destinations – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Jakarta and Brunei – representing a staggering 96% capacity reduction.


Singapore Airlines cuts more Australia and New Zealand flights ~ 17 Mar 2020
Additionally, Singapore Airlines has stopped selling First Class on SQ217/218 services from 1st April 2020 to 31st May 2020, suggesting this flight will be downgauged from the current Boeing 777-300ER, probably to an Airbus A350 which burns close to 25% less fuel on this route.


Is Singapore becoming a hotel country? ~ 13 Mar 2020
It is no secret that the plans to grow the population to 6.9 million in 2030, as set out in a 2013 Population White Paper. On top of that, Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat said during a March 2019 ministerial dialogue at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), that the country’s population density is not excessive, noting that other cities are even more crowded and dense. Mr Heng went on to also cite former chief planner Liu Thai Ker who said in 2014 that Singapore should plan for 10 million people for it to remain sustainable in the long term.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 14, 2020, 02:16:05 PM
China censors research on CCP virus origin; Wuhan volunteer threatened after speaking about outbreak ~ 14 Apr 2020

China restricts research on virus origins; China is being impacted by the “B” strain of CCP Virus ~ 14 Apr 2020

1st documentary movie on the origin of CCP virus, tracking down the origin of the Wuhan coronavirus ~ 7 Apr 2020

石正麗最新研究與冰島「雙病毒」病例隱藏重大信息!舉國撐武漢,“厲害”背後伏危機 ~ 7 Apr 2020

疫情還沒爆發,軍方就研製疫苗?🧐病毒去年10月已肆虐?😷全球病毒可溯源中國👈🏻 ~ 1 Apr 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 15, 2020, 01:41:41 PM
Singapore makes face masks compulsory as COVID-19 infections surge to 3,252 amid mass testing of migrant workers ~ 14 Apr 2020
Coronavirus: Singapore migrant worker dormitories still hot topic as Covid-19 cases rise ~ 14 Apr 2020
The S11 Dormitory@Punggol foreign worker dormitory has the biggest cluster with 586 cases in Singapore.


21 vacant HDB blocks in Bukit Merah being refurbished to house essential foreign workers.


Singapore Expo is the Republic's second community isolation facility.


Singapore is using the accommodation vessels mostly used for offshore and marine industry staff, which they have called "floating hotels" to house foreign workers.


Covid-19: 170 new cases take total to 4,987, death toll at 82 with 5 more fatalities ~ 14 Apr 2020

馬來西亞大爆發說明夏天不一定好轉?(The outbreak of COVID19 in Malaysia) ~ 14 Apr 2020

The 'tabligh' gathering from Feb 27 to March 1 was attended by 16,000 people, of whom 14,500 were Malaysians, and the remaining 1,500 were foreigners.


Hokkaido, Sapporo issue emergency declaration ~ 12 Apr 2020
Hokkaido lifted a three-week state of emergency on March 19. Under the latest declaration, municipal elementary and junior high schools in Sapporo, as well as prefectural high schools in and around the city, will be closed from Tuesday until May 6.


Coronavirus: Japan airport builds cardboard ‘hotel’ for stranded travellers ~ 13 Apr 2020

South Korea's Daegu reports no new COVID-19 cases for the first time since February ~ 10 Apr 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 16, 2020, 07:33:32 AM
Record 447 new COVID-19 cases in Singapore, 404 linked to dormitories, 145 cases unlinked and 4 new clusters, total at 3,699 ~ 15 Apr 2020

Can Singapore learn from Hong Kong’s sense of crisis? ~ 15 Apr 2020
Hong Kong correspondent Claire Huang discusses Hong Kong’s strategy to contain the spread, as it sees a declining number of new cases, in contrast to Singapore’s increase in recent days.

Expert: Circuit breaker should be extended by two weeks ~ 14 Apr 2020

Singapore’s first lady gives cryptic response to Taiwan’s gift of face masks ~ 13 Apr 2020
Errrr.  Means : Where does our monetary interests lie? China or Taiwan. ~ Seekerone D :cash:

Singapore’s Ho Ching thanks ‘friends in Taiwan’ after quibble over masks donation ~ 13 Apr 2020
‘Cut back on the back-patting’: Singapore’s coronavirus response loses its shine as critics speak out ~ 10 Apr 2020

‘Massive’ Covid-19 cluster sparks Punggol HDB residents’ worst fears ~ 10 Apr 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 17, 2020, 08:27:54 AM
Singapore reports record 728 new COVID-19 cases, total at 4,427 ~ 17 Apr 2020
With the 728 additional cases, the total tally of Covid-19 infections in Singapore have surged to 4,427, of which 10 have died, 683 have been discharged and 23 are in critical condition.


Life at the Singapore Expo: A COVID-19 patient shares his experience in a community isolation facility ~ 14 Apr 2020
"I was very shocked to see that there was such a facility that was built and could hold so many people," he explained. "It's one thing to see the pictures, but when I saw it in real life, I was still very shocked."


Singapore Expo is the Republic's second community isolation facility. This facility has been operational since Friday (Apr 10). It will house 2 types of patients – recovering patients and "early patients".


首家方舱医院休舱!武汉这三个地点全部实现“床等人” ~ 2 Mar 2020
方舱医院16家,可用床位13,467张,空 余床位7,255张。

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 17, 2020, 11:32:24 AM
无名英雄:全民团结抗疫 向前线工作者致敬


More mass screenings coming soon ~ 17 Apr 2020

Malaysia reports 110 new COVID-19 cases, total at 5,182, death toll now at 84 ~ 16 Apr 2020

More students from religious schools expected to test positive for COVID-19, says Malaysian health ministry ~ 16 Apr 2020

Health D-G: No Covid-19 cluster among foreign workers so far ~ 16 Apr 2020


行管令延长拖慢复原 今年GDP最坏倒退4% ~ 13 Apr 2020

Time to send students stranded on campus home, says Syed Saddiq ~ 10 Apr 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 19, 2020, 01:18:49 PM
Singapore overtakes Malaysia in Covid-19 cases with 942 new cases, total at 5,992 ~ 18 Apr 2020

Malaysia records 54 new COVID-19 cases, total at 5,305, death toll at 88 ~ 18 Apr 2020

Singapore leader’s wife blasts criticism on nation’s virus spike ~ 18 Apr 2020
“To fight this covid, we should expect mistakes, trips and falls,” she said. “When that happens, we pick ourselves up and correct course, and run again.”


How Malaysia is winning the war against COVID-19 ~ 16 Apr 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 19, 2020, 05:06:24 PM
Hin Leong Tading files for bankruptcy protection ~ 18 Apr 2020


Oil trader Hin Leong tell debtors to pay banks, cancels bunker supplies from Apr 18 ~ 17 Apr 2020
汇丰控股00005.HK closed @ HK$39.50 (-0.20, -0.50%) on 17 Apr 2020


Banks freeze credit to Singapore oil trader after price crash ~ 10 Apr 2020


HSBC dividend halt stirs Hong Kong shareholders' outrage ~ 8 Apr 2020

英國下令匯豐銀行不派息 引發香港投資者不滿 ~ 7 Apr 2020


Dividend halt puts HSBC at risk of losing core investors ~ 6 Apr 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 20, 2020, 08:14:13 PM
Hong Kong reports zero new coronavirus cases for first time since early March ~ 20 Apr 2020
The Chinese-ruled city, which has avoided the exponential increases seen in other parts of the world, has confirmed 1,025 total cases and four deaths since the outbreak began in January. The previous day with no recorded cases was March 5.

1,426 new coronavirus cases in S'pore in new daily high, total at 8,014 ~ 20 Apr 2020
Asia Today: Singapore sees huge surge in new virus cases ~ 18 Apr 2020

Coronavirus: Experts say big jump in infections is stretching the healthcare system ~ 17 Apr 2020

Hotels used to house Singapore’s migrant workers as Covid-19 cases continue to surge ~ 17 Apr 2020

Coronavirus: Sports Hub's OCBC Arena, selected ActiveSG indoor halls to house foreign workers ~ 17 Apr 2020

Coronavirus: Diamond HDB blocks in Taman Jurong to house healthy foreign workers in essential services ~ 17 Apr 2020

Coronavirus: Healthy migrant workers to be housed at void decks and multi-storey carparks at HDB construction sites ~ 11 Apr 2020


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 21, 2020, 08:14:56 AM
COVID-19: New Zealand extends lockdown until 27 April, before deciding to ease measures ~ 20 Apr 2020
‘No paranoid rambling, no blame-shifting’ — New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern hailed as world’s ‘most effective leader’. As of Monday (20 Apr 2020), the Pacific nation only recorded nine new cases of COVID-19 and no new deaths. This brings the total tally in the country to 1,440 cases with 12 fatalities.


New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern: The COVID-19 media conference with officials ~ 20 Apr 2020


Japan PM Abe's cloth mask handout program kicks off ~ 17 Apr 2020
COVID-19: One reusable mask will be given out to each Singapore resident from 5 Apr 2020 to 12 Apr 2020 ~ 3 Apr 2020


Abenomask? Prime minister's 'two masks per household' policy spawns memes on social media ~ 2 Apr 2020


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 21, 2020, 10:35:48 AM
Tackling Covid-19 among Singapore's foreign workers  | Talking Point ~ 20 Apr 2020
So, the worst-case scenario is that...we have an extra 40,000 cases of COVID-19.

Expert: Dormitories could see 10,000 to 20,000 infections in April ~ 16 Apr 2020

Hope over fear | Exclusive interview with Dr. Leong Hoe Nam ~ 12 Apr 2020

Doctor who previously answered  COVID-19 FAQS back again, asks Singaporeans to use common sense ~ 9 Mar 2020

Dr Leong Hoe Nam is an infectious disease specialist practising at Mount Elizabeth Novena Hospital, Singapore.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 22, 2020, 09:23:27 AM
Malaysia reported 57 Covid-19 new cases, total at 5,482, three new fatalities, death toll now at 92 ~ 21 Apr 2020
Malaysia is in its 35th day of the Movement Control Order (MCO), where people are instructed to stay at home and movement is heavily restricted. The MCO is scheduled to end on April 28

1,111 new coronavirus cases in Singapore, total at 9,125, lockdown to be extended to June 1 ~ 21 Apr 2020

确诊病例维持4位数 新加坡延长阻断措施至6月1日 ~ 21 Apr 2020

新加坡疫情二次爆发背後:被“忽視”的30萬底層外勞 ~ 21 Apr 2020


The coming impact of COVID-19 contraction in ASEAN ~ 21 Apr 2020
Figure 1 Cumulative confirmed cases in ASEAN-5


Figure 2 Expected coronavirus contraction in ASEAN-5


APEC region faces US$2.1t output loss in 2020 due to Covid-19 ~ 21 Apr 2020


《全球大流行》东南亚疫情升温 - 专家忧成重灾区 ~ 20 Apr 2020


Asia Today: India, Singapore see record numbers of new cases ~ 20 Apr 2020
The number of new coronavirus cases in Singapore has more than doubled over the past week amid an explosion of infections in crowded dormitories for foreign workers, which now makes up around 60% of Singapore's cases.


'Unprecedented' cooperation within ASEAN necessary to fight COVID-19, say analysts ~ 15 Apr 2020


Coronavirus: global trade braces for ‘tidal wave’ ahead, as shutdown batters supply chains ~ 3 Apr 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 26, 2020, 12:40:14 PM
618 new COVID-19 cases in S'pore, total at 12,693, Seven new cases are S'poreans or PRs ~ 25 Apr 2020
7 new Covid-19 clusters in S'pore, including Northpoint City in Yishun; 597 of 618 new cases are workers in dormitories.

COVID-19 surge exposes ugly truth about Singapore’s treatment of migrant workers ~ 24 Apr 2020
Singapore’s coronavirus escalation lays bare the “parallel universe” of poor conditions endured by migrant workers who are essential to the affluent city-state.


Singapore ponders mass testing as COVID-19 outbreak balloons ~ 24 Apr 2020

Singapore proves there's no textbook virus response: Daniel Moss ~ 22 Apr 2020
Winning the battle against a virus | On the Red Dot | Full Episode ~ 21 Apr 2020
Singapore confirms 1st case of virus on 23 Jan 2020. The patient is a 66-year-old Chinese national and a resident of Wuhan.

Explainer | How did migrant worker dormitories become Singapore’s biggest coronavirus cluster? ~ 17 Apr 2020
The first infected migrant worker infection was reported on February 8, when a 39-year-old Bangladeshi man working at the Seletar Aerospace Heights construction site caught the disease. He had visited Mustafa Centre – a 24-hour shopping centre – before he was hospitalised, and stayed at The Leo dormitory. The Seletar Aerospace Heights work site eventually became a cluster with five infections, but it was contained and only towards the end of March were migrant workers again reporting infections.

COVID-19: Bangladeshi worker, whose wife gave birth while he was in critical state, moves out of ICU ~ 17 Apr 2020
The patient, also known as Case 42, had spent more than 2 months in intensive care after testing positive for COVID-19 in February, and had to be put on a ventilator.
Singapore's first Wuhan virus case: Sentosa hotel sanitises rooms where patient, companions stayed ~ 24 Jan 2020
The infected guest, a 66-year-old Wuhan native, had checked into the hotel with his family on Monday (20 Jan 2020).
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 28, 2020, 07:55:34 AM
Plan now for the new era in aviation ~ 28 Apr 2020
Singapore Airlines just announced that it will continue to cancel most flights until the end of June, and offer only limited connections to 6 South-east Asian cities, Tokyo, Los Angeles and London. If ever an industry had its wings clipped, metaphorically and literally, it is aviation. Some two-thirds of the world's 26,000 passenger aircraft have been grounded and as many as 25 million jobs are at risk.

SIA Group reserves liquidity for aircraft purchases ~ 27 Apr 2020

Historic arrival of 4 Singapore Airlines A380s for the first time ever in Alice Springs - Australia ~ 26 Apr 2020
Singapore Airlines to move a fifth of A380 fleet to desert storage.


银行交通物流发电业 因油市震荡备受关注

来自 / 联合早报
文 / 王阳发发布 / 2020年4月25日 3:30 AM


今年国际原油市场暴发的大震荡,不只导致设在本地的国际著名石油贸易商兴隆贸易(Hin Leong Trading)轰然倒下,震波似乎也传到本地好些挂牌公司,银行、交通、物流和发电业者的受影响程度立即引起市场注意。

大华银行、华侨银行和星展集团的股价本周跌2.30%至3.16%,它们在兴隆的曝险合计6亿美元(8亿5000万新元)。用油大户方面,正在发售附加股集资的新航(SIA)本周跌3.05%,康福德高(ComfortDelGro)下挫5.92%,胜科工业(Sembcorp Industries)跌6.25%。


市场早已预期新航将蒙受巨额的燃油对冲亏损。银河—联昌证券研究主管林秀琪日前接受《联合早报》访问时便指出,在新航宣布发售附加股之前,该行已经在一份报告中预期,新航的对冲亏损将使它的资产负债表在第四季蒙受高达19亿元(US$1.9 billion)的负面冲击。






Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 30, 2020, 02:15:44 PM
In short, current rally is bear market rally

What is a Dead Cat Bounce(死猫跳)
SingPost ~ Dead Cat Bounce(死猫跳)

SingPost closed with an inverted hammer @ S$0.715 (+0.01, +1.4%) with 4.07m shares done on 29 Apr 2020.

Immediate support @ S$0.695, immediate resistance @ S$0.73.


SingPost ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$0.79

SingPost closed with a long-legged doji unchanged @ S$0.92 with 3.76m shares done on 30 Aug 2019.

Immediate support @ S$0.90, immediate resistance @ S$0.935.


The CEO of a listed-company, ABC invested company's fund, $1 billion in a company called XYZ with full knowledge that it would go bankrupt soon. Prior to the investment decision, he had liaised a 50/50 split with the owner of company XYZ that each would get $500 million once he got the money. After a while, company XYZ really went bankrupt. It didn't affect the CEO personally as the $1 billion in losses were attributable to the listed-company ABC. So what's rightfully company ABC’s money has now become the CEO's personal money, and it’s all legal and above board.

Commentary: Are SingPost’s lapses indicative of a deeper malaise in the company? ~ 31 Jan 2019
Singapore’s Government-Linked Companies need to face up to disruption ~ 11 Nov 2017
Temasek holds 52% of Singtel’s shares, which gives it control over Singtel’s associate company – SingPost. SingPost is Singapore’s postal service provider and designated Public Postal Licensee. Net profit has fallen from a restated amount of S$248.9million (US$183 million) in 2016 to S$33.4 million (US$24.6 million) in 2017. Its market capitalisation value stands at S$2.9 billion (US$2.1 billion), and its average share price continues its downward trend.


Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 30, 2020, 03:40:12 PM
Where did the airlines park their airplanes? WOW! ~ 15 Apr 2020

This is where U.S. airlines are parking their biggest planes during the coronavirus pandemic ~ 6 Apr 2020


Parking pain: Airlines, airports hunt for storage space as coronavirus idles planes ~ 24 Mar 2020
The number of planes in storage has doubled to more than 5,000 since the start of the year, according to Cirium data, with more expected to be parked in the coming weeks as carriers like Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd and Singapore Airlines Ltd proceed with further announced cuts to flight schedules.


Here is where airlines are parking all those grounded planes as travel dries up ~ 24 Mar 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on April 30, 2020, 04:37:34 PM
Technical analysis says supports don't hold in bear markets just as resistance doesn't in bull markets.

Oil’s scary replay: Physical U.S. crude could go negative in 2 weeks ~ 29 Apr 2020


Oil moves mixed on easing lockdowns, looming storage shortage ~ 28 Apr 2020
Singapore coastline packed with ships full of oil no one wants ~ 27 Apr 2020
Oil tank farm and ships off the coast of Singapore, 8 March 2020.


Boats sail past Pulau Bukom oil refinery along the southern coast of Singapore.


Oil storage tanks on Jurong island off Singapore.


Welcome to the great emerging-market schism: A virus-made split ~ 27 Apr 2020



Dozens of oil tankers wait off California's coast as the pandemic dents demand ~ 27 Apr 2020

The oil tanker Pegasus Voyager sits off the coast as a man sits and watches in a park in Long Beach, Calif., on April 22. Many vessels are parked between Long Beach and the San Francisco Bay Area with nowhere to go due to lack of demand and nowhere to store the oil.


Hedge fund CIO: "The oil price is a rare indicator of what is still real in this market" ~ 27 Apr 2020
Crude utterly collapsed. 300% in a single trading day. Sellers paid $37.63 to buyers.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 02, 2020, 04:37:44 PM
Singapore reports 447 new COVID-19 cases,  total at 17,548, four cases are S'poreans or PRs ~ 2 May 2020

Coronavirus statistics: what can we trust and what should we ignore? ~ 2 May 2020


新冠肺炎:巴西圣保罗挖1.3万墓穴 迅速下葬没时间道别 ~ 2 May 2020


卜基发灾难财 每日开赌新国冠病确诊数据 ~ 22 Apr 2020


Singapore casino resorts confirm shutdown extends to June 1 ~ 22 Apr 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 08, 2020, 08:49:55 AM
FLCT today very strong closed 1.08
Lucky didn’t sell today

「有早知冇乞儿」 = 当初如果你早知道的话;今日你就不会做乞丐了!

F&N provides guarantees for Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi's Starbucks Thailand deal ~ 14 Feb 2020
F&N will offer corporate guarantees to third-party lenders for associate Coffee Concepts (Thailand) Co’s financial obligations. The corporate guarantees (up to S$129.8m), are for loan facilities related to Coffee Concepts (Thailand) Co’s purchase last year of Starbucks’ Thailand business.

Thai billionaire Charoen builds empire with Fraser and Neave Ltd (F&N) takeover ~ 22 Jan 2013

F&N ~ Closed @ S$1.49 (Dead Cat Bounce +S$0.44), support @ S$1.45 ~ 30 Apr 2020



有感而发 ~ F&N的妈妈股和姐妹股让我想我的一根烂牙。本来在2013年我只需要付几十块钱就可以拔掉的。可是当年我并没有立刻去做;反而拖到今年(2019年6月11日)才拔掉它。你知道我付了多少倍才能够拔掉那根烂牙吗?答案是:六倍!


F&N (adjusted for any splits) rose to high of $9.60 per share in 2013. After divesting its stakes in Asia Pacific Brewery, F&N returned capital of $3.70 per share to shareholders. Following which, in the same year, the group spun off its property arm Frasers Centrepoint (FCL) and shareholders got a dividend in specie distribution of two FCL shares for every F&N share they own. Each share of FCL had a book value of $2.04 then. After adjusting the stock for the capital reduction and dividend in specie exercise, the theoretical residual value for the F&N stock should be $1.82.

F&N ~ Potential Double Bottom, critical support @ S$1.635

F&N closed with a black marubozu unchanged @ S$1.72 with extremely thin volume done at 33,600 shares on 14 Jun 2019.

Immediate support @ S$1.705, immediate resistance @ S$1.76.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 09, 2020, 08:30:16 AM
十年人事几番新,人生能有多少个十年? (odie living in a dreamland, after a one-night stand with F&N @ S$8.82)

Zuolun bro,

Can always buy high and sell high

Like F&N, I buy at sky high 8.82
And waited until it split to frasers property limited to sell at 1.69 and F&N at 3.07 although it is now at $2, I am happy with small profits

「有早知冇乞儿」 = 当初如果你早知道的话;今日你就不会做乞丐了!
F&N ~ Closed @ S$1.49 (Dead Cat Bounce +S$0.44), support @ S$1.45 ~ 30 Apr 2020


Zuolun bro,

Frasers commercial closed 1.59
52 weeks high
Rights issue coming

FLCT today very strong closed 1.08
Lucky didn’t sell today

Frasers Commercial unitholders approve S$1.54B merger with Frasers Logistics ~ 11 Mar 2020
Merger between FLT and FCOT completed w.e.f. 29 April 2020, the company has been renamed as FLCT.


Frasers Logistics, Frasers Commercial Trust said to be planning to merge ~ 28 Nov 2019
Frasers Property, backed by Thailand’s TCC Assets, is the main sponsor for both REITs.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 10, 2020, 09:15:23 AM

All leverage products are risky
If I don’t understand, I won’t buy

Zuolun bro,

Frasers commercial closed 1.59
52 weeks high
Rights issue coming

FLCT today very strong closed 1.08
Lucky didn’t sell today

Nope, understanding a stock before buying is secondary to odie.

odie always likes to buy stocks to gamble and holds onto them until they're rotten when the bets are unprofitable (from punting becomes longterm investment).

Of all the stocks, F&N is one of the unforgettable stocks that odie doesn't understand yet go ahead to buy it @ S$8.82 in 2012.

Until to-date (from 2012 to 10 May 2020), odie still doesn't understand why FLCT (one of F&N's affiliated companies) plunged to a low of S$0.625 on 19 Mar 2020 and closed @ S$1.06 on 8 May 2020.

Frasers Commercial closed @ S$1.59 on 14 Jun 2019 [S$1.59 (b4 merging was FCOT) - S$1.06 (after merging known as FLCT) = -S$0.53].


Frasers Commercial unitholders approve S$1.54B merger with Frasers Logistics ~ 11 Mar 2020
Merger between FLT and FCOT completed w.e.f. 29 April 2020, the company has been renamed as FLCT.

Frasers Logistics, Frasers Commercial Trust said to be planning to merge ~ 28 Nov 2019
Frasers Property, backed by Thailand’s TCC Assets, is the main sponsor for both REITs.

Performance chart ~ Fraser and Neave + affiliated companies as at 8 May 2020


Performance chart ~ Fraser and Neave + affiliated companies as at 2 Dec 2019


「有早知冇乞儿」 = 当初如果你早知道的话;今日你就不会做乞丐了!

F&N ~ Closed @ S$1.49 (Dead Cat Bounce +S$0.44), support @ S$1.45 ~ 30 Apr 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on May 13, 2020, 02:02:47 PM
SocGen's SIA 5x Short DLC speculation Vs Bank of China's WTI speculation
What is a market maker?
A market maker is a individual market participant or member firm of an exchange that also buys and sells securities for its own account, at prices it displays in its exchange's trading system, with the primary goal of profiting on the bid-ask spread, which is the amount by which the ask price exceeds the bid price a market asset.


SocGen extends one-off payment after investors of SIA shorts protest; SGX opens probe

By Lynette Tan
Tue, May 12, 2020 - 10:21 pm

Societe Generale (SocGen) is extending a single exceptional payment as a "goodwill gesture" to investors of the 5x Short Singapore Airlines (SIA) daily leverage certificates (DLCs), after some of them protested against what they saw as the lack of timely disclosure and unfair pricing by the investment bank.

The Singapore Exchange has said that it has commenced investigations into the matter.

SocGen, the issuer of the certificates, announced on Tuesday that it will pay 30 Singapore cents per certificate. The payment will be made to registered holders of the certificates as of May 11. Mechanics for the payment are being confirmed and registered holders will be notified in due course.

SocGen said: "We emphasise that the goodwill payment amount is not intended to compensate investors for all losses, given the risks investors assumed in purchasing these structured products."

But it added that the payment shows its "recognition of the ongoing importance of making prompt notifications to investors of adjustments and similar important events".

The payment is not linked to the pricing of the mandatory convertible bond (MCBs) issue by SIA, SocGen said.

Traders of the certificates had complained last week after SocGen adjusted the pricing of SIA securities lower than what they had expected, by taking into account both SIA's rights issue and mandatory convertible bond issue.

DLCs are instruments that move either up or down based on the price of an underlying asset. A 5x Short DLC will move inversely to the underlying asset price by a factor of five, so a 20% increase in SIA's share price would produce a 100% loss on the 5x Short SIA DLC.

SocGen's move was seen to have sped up the surge in SIA shares on May 6, triggering an "airbag mechanism" which suspended trading in the DLCs. Traders therefore cried foul, saying they would have had more time to react if the higher price was used or if SocGen had made its position clear sooner.

SocGen said on Tuesday that it considers itself to have acted "appropriately and reasonably" in what were, and remain, "complex and exceptional" circumstances.

On Tuesday night, SGX said in a statement: “In respect of the adjustment announcement, our regulatory focus is centred on ensuring timely disclosure. We require that adjustments be announced once it is determined, but in no event later than the market day prior to the effective date. We have commenced investigations into the circumstances leading to SocGen adjustment announcement.”

Exotic SocGen financial product shorting SIA shares now worth zero ~ 11 May 2020

Bank of China's mulls oil-linked loss absorption ~ 4 May 2020
The state-owned lender could absorb part of the over $1 billion in losses after sub-zero oil prices hit 60,000 retail investors and led to public outcry.

Did WTI collapse burn US$1 billion hole in Bank of China investors’ pockets? ~ 27 Apr 2020
The number of clients affected is not final and subject to change as more branch data is examined: sources. BOC investment vehicle offered Chinese retail investors access to WTI oil futures without opening an offshore account.

In depth: A bitter, $1.4 billion lesson on commodity price speculation

By Wu Hongyuran, Liu Caiping, Peng Qinqin and Han Wei
Apr 27, 2020 06:53 am

The epic crash last week of crude oil taught 60,000 Chinese investors a bitter, 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) lesson on the risks of speculating in commodity prices.

The clients of Bank of China (BOC), one of the country’s largest state-owned lenders, were trying to buy on a dip in crude prices using a paper investment product known as Yuan You Bao. Little did they expect that values would keep on plunging past zero and well into negative territory.

One investor told Caixin that his entire 50,000 yuan ($7,063) investment in the bank’s Yuan You Bao product linked to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures evaporated April 22 after prices dropped below zero. That left him owing 80,000 yuan to the bank. Another investor took a 9.2 million yuan loss on a 3.9 million yuan investment and ended up owing 5.3 million yuan, a screenshot of a transaction record circulating online showed.

Futures contracts are investments linked to the value of certain commodities on a specified date in the future and trade on markets around the world. Chinese investors are barred from the foreign oil futures markets, and commercial banks are not allowed to participate in domestic futures trading. But they can offer broker services for derivative investments linked to foreign futures markets. That’s where the Yuan You Bao products come in.

It isn’t clear how much Chinese investors lost on the product. But sources with knowledge told Caixin that BOC had more than 60,000 investors in Yuan You Bao who put 4.2 billion yuan into margin deposit accounts. Based on the settling price after the April 21 oil collapse, the investors owed 5.8 billion yuan to the bank on top of the loss of their initial investments, wiping out a total of 10 billion yuan.

The investors were caught up in a catastrophic crash of oil prices resulting from a collapse in global energy demand amid the Covid-19 pandemic and widespread shutdowns of commerce on all levels. The value of the benchmark WTI crude May futures contract, traded on an exchange operated by the American giant CME Group Inc., plunged to a historic low April 21 of a negative $37.63 a barrel, meaning producers would have to pay buyers to take delivery of oil.

The episode spotlights how China’s mom-and-pop investors betting on swings of oil through cheap access provided by Chinese lenders can be exposed to massive losses. While they are generally prohibited from directly investing in foreign crude futures markets, such investors can buy banks’ paper crude products offered without opening an offshore account. The investments are pegged to the flat price of the front-month contract and are settled in Chinese yuan.

The case also raises questions about whether there were significant design flaws in the BOC product that put people with low risk tolerance into high-risk investments, industry experts said. The contracts themselves may be in a regulatory gray zone as they are structured to sidestep legal restrictions on risky investments in futures markets, regulatory experts said. Moreover, the peculiarities of the BOC product may have exposed investors to a last-minute attack by predatory short sellers.

In addition to BOC, several other major banks including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), China Construction Bank (CCB), Bank of Communications (BoComm), Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank have launched similar products over the past few years.

Since March, such products have become popular among retail investors betting on crude prices to rebound as they fell to $20 a barrel, a bank trader told Caixin. A surge of buyers forced ICBC to halt sales of the investments March 13 after the bank used up its government-set foreign exchange quota for the products, an ICBC source said.

More than 100,000 Chinese retail investors flooded into the market though paper crude products and never expected prices to slide below zero, market sources said. The three biggest sellers of the investment vehicles — ICBC, CCB and BOC — held a combined $3 billion of positions in futures contracts linked to prices for WTI and ICE Brent, another oil benchmark, according to an estimate by a futures company manager.

Most of the banks halted sales of the products after BOC’s catastrophic losses. BOC suspended its Yuan You Bao clients from opening new positions starting April 22, allowing them only to close positions.

Paper crude investors with ICBC and CCB may have been luckier than BOC clients because they limited losses by settling May contracts earlier. Banks agreed with investors on a certain day before contract expiration to close positions or roll over investments — opening positions for the next month’s contracts while closing the current ones. But the day for BOC clients to settle contracts happened to be the very day of the unprecedented crash.

Under the product agreement, BOC froze investors’ accounts at 10 p.m. April 20, the day before contract expiration, to settle outstanding positions. WTI contracts were trading at $11 a barrel in the U.S. But in the following hours, the price took a nosedive to as low as minus $40 and settled at a negative $37.63 a barrel as of 2:30 a.m. April 21 in Beijing. During that period, investors could do nothing but watch their investments vanish and debts pile up.

On April 22, BOC said investors had to settle their positions at the Monday WTI settlement price of minus $37.63 a barrel, leaving them with huge losses and money owed to the bank. Angry investors flooded onto the internet to protest, accusing the bank of flaws in the product design and demanding that BOC shoulder some losses. But the bank maintained that it settled the contracts in accordance with guidelines agreed with clients.

According to BOC materials, the Yuan You Bao product requires 100% margin deposits and does not allow any leverage. Several banking sources told Caixin that the paper crude products are normally registered with the banking industry regulator as R3 level wealth management products, meaning they are balanced investment options with medium risk.

“How come the investors were exposed to losses that are multiples of their initial investments?” demanded one BOC investor.

Several lawyers questioned whether the products failed to comply with investor suitability requirements.

“It is seriously unmatched to its risk assessment,” one lawyer said.

The extreme situation

It was a situation where the “trading mechanism encountered an extreme situation in the extreme,” a bank trader said.

Some investors said the bank should have acted to settle the contracts shortly after 10 p.m. when the price was still around $10 a barrel. But BOC said rolling over investors’ positions doesn't start right after the accounts are closed and must follow the settlement arrangement with brokers. During this period, BOC doesn’t follow the market or take any action on clients’ accounts, according to the bank.

The paper crude investments can be divided into two separated parts. One part is the deal between banks and Chinese retail investors on derivative contracts linked to global crude futures benchmarks, which don’t involve oil delivery in the end. The other part is an agreement between the banks and brokers in real futures trading. BOC hired JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BOC International Holdings as its brokers for offshore crude futures trading, Caixin learned.

Most of the paper crude products sold by Chinese banks allow investors to leave their positions to be automatically rolled over to the following month’s contract. In 2019 when oil prices rose steadily, investors earned yields of more than 10% annually without doing anything while banks profited by simply helping clients maintain their positions.

It wasn’t until January this year that investors realized the seemingly easy investments could carry high risks, a futures manager said. After the April 14 settlement, some ICBC clients found that the value of their positions shrank by nearly one-fourth.

Many industry insiders said they were puzzled that BOC set its settlement date only one day before the monthly contract expiration, giving itself little flexibility to deal with potential price fluctuations. Anyone holding WTI futures after they expire could be forced to take delivery of crude in the U.S. oil hub of Cushing, Oklahoma.

A futures industry source said the arrangement might reflect BOC’s attempt to compete with other banks’ similar products. A later settlement date means the prices are closer to the final market prices and could reduce the costs of rolling over positions under the normal market liquidity condition, a brokerage manager said.

But market liquidity was not normal this time for BOC. An industry insider said the bank’s positions were targeted by international short sellers who in just few minutes drove down the crude prices that are crucial for settling the May contract price.

The price of WTI May contracts was under pressure since April 8 when the United States Oil Fund (USO), the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking crude prices, cut its positions over four straight days. The price gap between the May and June contracts further widened after ICBC and CCB rolled over their positions April 14. Both banks agreed on settling their paper crude products five working days before the contract expiration.

When BOC started to roll over its positions April 20, “the money had been targeted” by short sellers, said a futures company manager.

With a fixed transaction time and little flexibility, “it is like showing the cards to rivals when playing Texas hold 'em,” a form of poker, an investor said.

BOC hasn’t disclosed how much in positions it held for Yuan You Bao clients, but several local regulators said the bank ordered local branches to report their client information. Data available showed that about 95% of the investors held long positions. A Caixin calculation showed that the losses based on the settlement price could amount to 9 billion yuan.

Bloom in grey zone

Unlike global futures investors who trade oil contracts in thousands of barrels, Chinese investors buying banks’ paper crude products can start with 0.1 barrel. The threshold for investors to tap the highly risky market is as low as 14 yuan. Banks split 1,000-barrel crude contracts into smaller tranches to sell to retail investors, a financial expert said.

“It transformed high-requirement and high-risk products and offered access to clients with low risk tolerance,” the expert said. “It is unclear how regulators assess the risks and nature of such products.”

“The banned individual investment (in foreign futures) is happening and even uses the yuan,” said a futures industry regulator.

Chinese regulators since 2017 barred individual investors from directly trading overseas futures contracts on concerns over financial risks following a surge of speculative and illegal investments.

Chinese retail investors can tap into the foreign futures market through funds offered by wealth management operations under the qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) program. In 2013, ICBC launched the first paper crude product, offering an alternative path for investors to bet on foreign futures. Other banks quickly followed. Meanwhile, such products also help banks to bypass rules that prohibit them from participating in domestic futures trading.

The products are similar, allowing investors to take both long and short positions, linking to foreign futures, and requiring 100% deposits but low entry requirements. In addition to crude oil, banks offer a wide variety of products linked to foreign commodities contracts from copper to silver to soybeans.

A person close to the top securities regulator said the paper crude products offered by banks involve some gray-zone practices that were previously a target of a regulatory crackdown on illegal futures trading and provided ineligible investors access to foreign future markets.

Although banks distinguished their paper crude products from illegal futures trading by allowing zero leverage and collecting 100% deposits, it is still a de facto investment in futures markets that violated banking industry rules, the person said.

Whom to blame?

Yuan You Bao investors are exposed to risks of losing all of their deposits or even owing money to the bank, as CME Group started on April 15 to allow the WTI oil futures to be traded and settled at negative prices.

“The product design (of Yuan You Bao) had never taken negative value into account,” one banker said.

If BOC could closely monitor market changes and suggest that clients cut their positions in a timely way, things would be different, a bank executive said. “It reflects the operational risks, and banks must always consider the most extreme situations,” he said.

The incident thrusts BOC into the center of a controversy. Some industry sources said the bank should not ask clients to pay for the losses in excess of their deposits as the product required 100% deposits.

A lawyer said BOC should shoulder the risks of its overseas futures trading without translating the losses to Yuan You Bao investors because its trading systems with domestic investors and overseas brokers are separate.

Chinese regulations require futures trading companies to pay close attention to their clients to prevent losses exceeding deposits. If large-scale losses occur, the securities regulator will step in to investigate.

Chinese lenders have aggressively marketed paper crude products this year, recommending that investors buy on the dip. Public information showed that since early March, a BOC branch’s Yuan You Bao clients surged from 3,000 to 13,700. Weekly transaction value rose from 320 million yuan to 1.2 billion yuan.

Industry insiders criticized banks for inadequate risk disclosure to paper crude investors. One BOC staffer said Yuan You Bao was listed as a normal wealth management product.

“How can salespeople know about the risks?” said the staffer.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 02, 2020, 10:49:29 AM
How the SWIFT system works

Hong Kong security law: China weighs risk US will go for ‘nuclear option’ and cut Beijing from the dollar payment system ~ 1 Jun 2020

Hong Kong’s justice department will make all decisions to prosecute suspects under new national security law: minister ~ 1 Jun 2020

Rush for US dollars forces Hong Kong money changers to turn away customers in droves after supplies run out ~ 30 May 2020

美元現鈔沒了! 香港"找換店"大排長龍 45分鐘兌走百萬美元 英鎊.日圓也一張難求 ~ 29 May 2020

US says Hong Kong 'no longer autonomous from China' ~ 29 May 2020

Hong Kong landlord stocks slumped to lowest levels since 2009 ~ 26 May 2020


30年前港片《表姐,你好嘢》 港姐鄭裕玲對白 神準預測九七後香港局勢 ~ 25 May 2020


China will likely face U.S. sanctions over Hong Kong national security laws: O'Brien ~ 24 May 2020

China about to obliterate “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong ~ 23 May 2020

Hong Kong stocks set for worst day since 2015 as Beijing pushes security law ~ 22 May 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 03, 2020, 04:52:00 PM
港版國安法:美國總領館承認放售壽山村道洋房 估值百億元 ~ 30 May 2020

US government invites bids on six multibillion-dollar Hong Kong mansions, even as White House revokes city’s trade status ~ 30 May 2020

美國總統記者會發表美中全面政策 ~ 29 May 2020

留给香港的时间不多了:一国两制寿终正寝?香港金融还能撑多久?联系汇率还能撑多久? ~ 29 May 2020

反制"港版國安法"出招!美擬撤港特殊貿易待遇 中國放話:將自吞苦果! ~ 28 May 2020

为了革命理想——知识分子“第一经济间谍” ~ 4 May 2020



銀元之戰:人民幣之前生 ~ 31 May 2019




這件事情引發了上海市政府嘅關註。為了壓製銀元上升,上海市委決定在6月5日拋售了10萬枚銀元,6月6日又拋出31萬銀元。希望借此能夠舒緩銀元上漲的壓力,但這批銀元係秒速被上海市場所吸收,僅僅起到了延緩升值速度的效果。6月7日,銀元漲到1800元。這令中國政府感到極大壓力,因為上海作為經濟大都市和中國為數不多的幾個存在少量國際貿易的城市而言,人民幣無法流通和銀元的瘋狂上漲帶來的物價上漲,將被外界視為政府的無能,並且上海的舉動很有可能會影響其他城市 — — 北京也出現了少量抵製人民幣流通嘅行為。這些影響將令政府快速失去民心。6月8日,中央高層決定採取政治手段幹預市場,上海市政府得到授權後,由掌管財經嘅經委員會採取行動;市政府動用行政力量在政府控製稅收、交通及其他市政公用事業並強製以人民幣作為唯一許可使用的貨幣,同發行人民幣公債來增加人民幣的使用量。在這之前的6月7日,市軍管會宣布以人民幣為唯一合法貨幣,禁止銀元買賣、流通,取締銀元投機活動,並警告了銀元的投機分子。


1949年6月10日,上海市軍管會派出便衣警察封鎖了上海最大的銀元交易市場 — — 並拘捕了250名投機者,收繳了數萬枚銀元。並發動上海市的民眾進行宣傳,散發傳單,宣傳建立新的金融新秩序的作用和意義。這場活動對資本家和投機者帶來了巨大的影響,很快市場上銀元對人民幣的比價由6月8日的1:2000降至1:1200,並不斷下降。由于銀元的貶值,人民幣很快便取得了在上海的主導貨幣地位,令政府有能力對市場進行更強有力的幹預。

事後中國政府將此次行為定性為:『與敵視政府的資產階級的實力較量』。並稱之為一場影響“不亞于淮海戰役”的戰爭。這次中國政府的活動也順利穩定了上海市和其他省市的物價,安定了民心,為中國政府取得了威信。雖然投機活動也並沒有完全停止,不少投機者依然沒有感受到政府解決投機問題的決心,而繼續活動不甘心失敗,佢地很快轉向糧食、棉紗和煤炭市場, 利用物資短缺嘅機會大做投機生意,引發又一次全國性漲價高潮。在這種情況下,中共決定以上海為主戰場,將大批糧食棉紗和煤炭從全國各地緊急調往上海、北京等大城市,準備以經濟實力壓垮投機商,利用政治手段收稅和收公債等。在市場物價在投機商人哄抬之下達到頂點的時候,指導各地集中時間、集中物資統一向市場拋售,同時收緊銀根,徵收稅款,最後先至徹底解決了中國市場上的大規模投機現象。




The CCP didn’t fight imperial Japan; the KMT did

While the KMT military defended China against Japan during WWII, the CCP built up strength for the civil war.

As Diplomat readers are well aware — and the Pacific Realist is frankly sick of —China has mounted a sustained campaign demanding that Tokyo take a “correct” view of Imperial Japan’s unspeakable crimes during WWII.

There’s always been a good deal of irony to all of this. Although far too many Japanese leaders have tried to shrink or even deny the crimes of Imperial Japan, including its atrocities in China, successive Japanese governments have acknowledged and apologized for many of these.

On the other hand, the Chinese Communist Party has also committed numerous massacres of Chinese since establishing the People’s Republic of China. This began early in its tenure while consolidating its control over the vast country, as Frank Dikötter notes in a terrific recent book. With regards to the “land reform” campaign alone, for instance, Dikötter writes, “The exact number of victims killed in the land reform will never be known, but it is unlikely to have been fewer than 1.5 to 2 million people from 1947 to 1952.” At least another two million were killed in the Great Terror that Mao launched between 1950-1952 to weed out imaginary counter-revolutionaries.

Of course, there was also the widespread famine that killed tens of millions during the Great Leap Forward. To be sure, there’s no reason to believe that Mao and the other CCP leaders intended to starve these people when they launched the Great Leap Forward. That being said, they continued these policies for years after they realized the disastrous outcomes they were having simply because Mao didn’t want to admit his failures. Then, of course, the entire country was plunged into chaos once again during the Cultural Revolution, which was Mao’s attempt to ensure his atrocities weren’t publicly acknowledged by the Party after his death.

As it turned, he needn’t have worried as the CCP under Deng Xiaoping decided it was not in the Party’s interest to acknowledge it had nearly destroyed the county many times over in its first 25 years in power. Instead, the CCP has devoted considerable resources to systematically rewriting history — or at the very least burying it. Unlike in Japan, where history is distorted by hardline leaders, in China distorting history is the official state policy. Meanwhile, taking the correct view of history is illegal — which is why books like Tombstone are banned.

Reasonable observers might conclude that it is the height of hypocrisy for the CCP to wage a global PR war over Japan’s views of history on the one hand, while on the other hand criminalizing a correct view of its own history. And there was a time not too long ago I might have agreed with these reasonable observers’ conclusion. However, this week Xi Jinping and the CCP took their hypocrisy on history to new heights.

As Shannon reported on Wednesday, earlier this year “China’s legislature passed a resolution creating two new national observances. ‘Victory Day’ on September 3 would commemorate Japan’s surrender in the ‘War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression,’ China’s name for its fight against Imperial Japan before and during World War II.  December 13 was also named a National Memorial Day to commemorate the Nanjing Massacre.”

She went on to note that President Xi and the entire Politburo Standing Committee participated in the new Victory Day celebrations, which they used mostly to criticize contemporary Japanese policy, and to try to create the impression that Japan’s shifting defense posture represents a return to the militarism of Imperial Japan.

However, along with criticizing Japan, Xi and the PBSC also used the Victory Day celebrations to praise the CCP itself. As Shannon writes, the Victory Day holiday “also served as a celebration of the Chinese Communist Party’s role in defeating Japan — and more than that, in saving China from its century of humiliation…. Xi credited the CCP with spearheading the movement to unite all of China’s people in opposition to Japan. To Xi Jinping, the deciding factors in the war were the ‘great national spirit’ of the Chinese people — particularly, their patriotism — and the leadership of the CCP.”

None of this is particularly new. The CCP has long claimed credit for having tirelessly defended China from the Imperial Japanese army. This couldn’t be further from the truth, however. As I have noted elsewhere, Japan’s invasion of China saved the CCP from Chiang Kai-shek and the KMT, and ultimately allowed Mao to defeat the KMT in the ensuing civil war. Indeed, by the end of 1934, the CCP was on the verge of extinction after KMT troops delivered another heavy blow to the Red Army in Jiangxi Province, which forced the Party to undertake the now infamous Long March to Xi’an in the northwestern province of Shaanxi. Chiang initially pursued the Communist forces, and would have almost certainly delivered a final blow to the CCP if war with Japan could have been delayed. As it turned out, Chiang was not able to put off the war with Japan any longer, and domestic and international pressure forced him to accept a tacit alliance with the CCP against Japan.

At the onset of the war, then, the CCP was not in any position to defend anyone from the formidable Japanese military. In fact, it wasn’t even in a position to defend itself from the KMT. The initial battles of the second Sino-Japanese War in southern China were the largest ones, and the KMT fought them alone.

This would be the trend of the entire war. As two scholars note, “From 1937 to 1945, there were 23 battles where both sides employed at least a regiment each. The CCP was not a main force in any of these. The only time it participated, it sent a mere 1,000 to 1,500 men, and then only as a security detachment on one of the flanks.There were 1,117 significant engagements on a scale smaller than a regular battle, but the CCP fought in only one. Of the approximately 40,000 skirmishes, just 200 were fought by the CCP, or 0.5 percent.”

By the CCP’s own accounts during the war, it barely played a role. Specifically, in January 1940 Zhou Enlai sent a secret report to Joseph Stalin which said that over a million Chinese had died fighting the Japanese through the summer of 1939. He further admitted that only 3 percent of those were CCP forces. In the same letter, Zhou pledged to continue to support Chiang and recognize “the key position of the Kuomintang in leading the organs of power and the army throughout the country.” In fact, in direct contradiction to Xi’s claims on Wednesday, Zhou acknowledged that Chiang and the KMT “united all the forces of the nation” in resisting Japan’s aggression.

While the KMT were busy uniting the country and fighting the Japanese military, CCP forces spent much of the early part of the war hiding in the mountains to avoid battle. As the KMT was decimated by the Japanese military, it was forced to retreat further south. At the same time, the Japanese forces largely focused on securing control of Chinese cities and strategic infrastructure, while ignoring China’s massive countryside. Thus, the KMT’s efforts to actually defend China created a power vacuum in rural areas, which the CCP came out of hiding to seize. It used its control over these villages to perfect its propaganda and political efforts, and hid among the population to avoid fighting the Japanese army. According to Soviet military advisers stationed in CCP-controlled areas at the time, the CCP also used this land to grow opium to fund its growing operations.

As far as fighting went, the CCP engaged in guerilla warfare and sabotage missions. This certainly annoyed the Japanese forces, but it did not have a significant impact on Japan’s war operations. In fact, even the Japanese North China Area Army — which had command over the northern areas where the CCP was located and the KMT was relatively weaker than elsewhere —continued to see defeating the KMT as its primary objective. The greater impact of these guerilla operations was in helping the CCP win new recruits. The CCP used their “heroic” operations against the hated Japanese enemy to recruit young men (and women) to their cause, much as militant groups like the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham film their exploits today and post them on YouTube to attract recruits.

This was highly successful. According to the CCP’s own estimates, it began the war with 30,000 troops. By Victory Day, it had 1.2 million regular troops and around 2.6 million to 3 million militia under its command. It was also quick to seize the areas that the Japanese army was vacating, and seized the Japanese equipment. In fact, in some instances it even forced the Japanese soldiers to join the Red Army (the KMT did the same). Of course, the war not only allowed the CCP to grow much stronger, but it also greatly depleted the Nationalist’s strength. This allowed the CCP to prevail easily in the civil war.

This was not by accident but by design. The CCP had a choice: it could have prioritized defending the country against Japan during the war, or it could have prioritized seizing control of China from those who did fight the Japanese. It chose the latter. Meanwhile, by choosing to actually try to defend China against Japan during the war, the Nationalists handed the country to the CCP afterwards.

Which is why Xi and the CCP’s decision to create a national observance day to honor its defense of China during the second Sino-Japanese War represents the height of hypocrisy. It’s one thing to try to suppress all information exposing the Party’s failings, which killed millions of Chinese, while demanding Japan take a correct view of history (which Tokyo should do). It’s another thing altogether to falsely claim credit for one of the defining moments of your country’s modern history. And it’s really something unprecedented to create a national holiday to honor your Party for doing something it consciously avoided; namely, putting China’s defense over the CCP itself. Classy.

By Zachary Keck
September 04, 2014
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 04, 2020, 12:21:46 PM
Why Hong Kong pegs its currency to the US dollar

Explainer: Dollar peg is critical to Hong Kong amid U.S. threats, China worries ~ 3 Jun 2020


Surge in Singapore bank deposits reflects risk aversion, inflows from markets ~ 3 Jun 2020
Someone just made a big bullish options bet on a Singapore ETF ~ 3 Jun 2020

China unveils plan to make Hainan a free trade hub like Hong Kong, Singapore as risks of US decoupling loom ~ 2 Jun 2020
Capital flight fears grow alongside Hong Kong political turmoil ~ 29 May 2020


China's rich skirting Hong Kong to seek asset safety elsewhere ~ 28 May 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 05, 2020, 12:31:17 PM
形形色色的全民摆摊 心酸又无奈 ~ 4 Jun 2020


摆摊吧 后浪!Kilikili 献给摆摊主的演讲 ~ 4 Jun 2020


China’s premier acknowledges serious economic crisis, with 600 million people earning US$140 a month ~ 1 Jun 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 07, 2020, 05:53:40 PM
班農專訪:北京強推「港版國安法」 世界對中共獨裁政權說「不」 ~ 4 Jun 2020

Chinese aggression predates Xi Jinping, it started with Hu Jintao ~ 4 Jun 2020
Apart from being the mastermind of China’s reform and opening-up, Deng in the 1980s also implemented major institutional reforms that ensured orderly succession, because “he had got the right lesson from the dictatorship of Mao Zedong,” says Willy Lam, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. But now, “all these reforms have been overturned by Xi Jinping.”

Tiananmen Square : 'Survivors are still afraid to speak out 31 years later' ~ 4 Jun 2020

林培瑞:我们为什么记住六·四? (Perry Link:“Why must we remember June Fourth?” ~ 3 Jun 2020

川普宣布制裁中共 美議員支持並配合落實 ~ 1 Jun 2020


哈佛教授傅高義專訪:「中美對抗」、「習鄧比較」與「香港問題」~ 25 May 2020

重回计划经济将是压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草,计划经济将加速中国现行制度的解体,建立城邦联合体将成为发达地区的出路 ~ 14 Apr 2020

China is ‘going further backwards’ under Xi Jinping, say veteran democracy activist Wei Jingsheng ~ 3 Dec 2018


Xi Jinping could now rule China for life—just what Deng Xiaoping tried to prevent ~ 26 Feb 2018
A recap of the history: Deng was the first to rule out lifelong tenure in Communist Party leadership. “My last task is to take the lead in establishing a retirement system,” an 84-year-old Deng told his colleagues months before he quit all his official roles in 1989. “The natural law cannot be changed, and the leadership transition cannot be stopped.”

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 09, 2020, 12:59:12 PM
Stock futures hold steady after S&P 500 turns positive for the year ~ 8 Jun 2020
Dow @ 27,572.44 (+461.46, +1.70%) on 8 Jun 2020.
NASDAQ @ 9,924.75 (+110.66, +1.13%) on 8 Jun 2020.
S&P 500 @ 3,232.39 (+38.46, +1.2%) on 8 Jun 2020.


20 reasons for a stock market crash ahead! ~ 7 Jun 2020

Stock market crash ahead? - The 2020 FED bubble ~ 6 Jun 2020

Global instability, soaring deficits and civil disobedience: Are we back in the 1960s, and what happens next? ~ 5 Jun 2020


How much is the national debt? What are the different measures used? ~  ~ 5 Jun 2020


With US economy dead since 2008, only thing left for Fed is to print trillions of dollars in debt ~ 4 Jun 2020


The economy is in free fall. So why isn’t the stock market? ~ 6 May 2020
US is `printing' money to help save the economy from the COVID-19 crisis, but some wonder how far it can go ~ 14 May 2020


April’s rally – Best month since 1987 ~ 6 May 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 11, 2020, 02:19:55 PM
Xi Jinping's wife is W.H.O goodwill ambassador ~ 11 Jun 2020

What happens when you quit the P.L.A? ~ 10 Jun 2020

India-China standoff: The dragon retreats ~ 10 Jun 2020

Weaknesses plaguing the People's Liberation Army ~ 10 Jun 2020

Inside People's Liberation Army | A SWOT Analysis ~ 9 Jun 2020

向“西北高原”调兵遣将“恰逢”中印谈判 ~ 9 Jun 2020


中国从湖北整建制空降兵投送西北高原(官方视频) ~ 6 Jun 2020


中美关系恶化 人民币贬值压力增大? ~ 6 Jun 2020


U.S. invited South Korea, Australia, India to G7 to check China's rise: Experts ~ 2 Jun 2020


Coronavirus: 5 ways the world is cornering China ~ 16 May 2020
From the United States, to Europe and Africa - leading countries are now building pressure on China.

US increases military pressure on China as tensions rise over pandemic ~ 15 May 2020
The Pentagon accused China of exploiting the pandemic to gain military and economic advantages by expanding the areas in which it operates.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 19, 2020, 03:54:56 PM

History repeats itself. The future is but a repetition of the past..."The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun."

習近平 崇禎 他們像嗎? ~ 14 Feb 2020

历史重演:习近平像明朝最后一位皇帝崇祯 ~ 4 Dec 2019


习近平要谨记崇祯之教训 ~ 19 Dec 2017

Xi Jinping and the Chinese dream ~ 4 May 2013
IN 1793 a British envoy, Lord Macartney, arrived at the court of the Chinese emperor, hoping to open an embassy. He brought with him a selection of gifts from his newly industrialising nation. The Qianlong emperor, whose country then accounted for about a third of global GDP, swatted him away: “Your sincere humility and obedience can clearly be seen,” he wrote to King George III, but we do not have “the slightest need for your country’s manufactures”. The British returned in the 1830s with gunboats to force trade open, and China’s attempts at reform ended in collapse, humiliation and, eventually, Maoism.



Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 22, 2020, 02:53:17 PM
王维洛:水坝与城镇化过渡开发加剧南方水灾灾情 ~ 19 Jun 2020


Floods caused huge disasters in southern China; design errors put Three Gorges Dam in danger ~ 16 Jun 2020


Three Gorges Dam is safe, say China officials, dismissing online rumors ~ 9 Jul 2020
The 185-metre Three Gorges Dam has been one of China’s most expensive and most controversial engineering projects, submerging entire villages, displacing millions of people and disrupting ecosystems. Critics say it has also increased earthquake and landslide risks in the region.


江澤民拿三峽與李鵬做交易 王維洛揭內幕 ~ 28 Jul 2016

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 25, 2020, 03:16:19 PM
報導武漢疫情 公民記者張展被批捕 ~ 23 Jun 2020

Chinese citizen journalist arrested after reporting on coronavirus from Wuhan ~ 23 Jun 2020
When David became Goliath

June 25th, 2020

Just received an op-ed from the New York Times in my email. The story is entitled “Tech Goliaths Act Like Davids,” and the main thrust of the story is that the tech giants like Google, Apple, Facebook, Uber and so on have become the corporate bullies that they once fought against. The story can be found at:

If one studies history, one will notice that this isn’t a new story. History is filled with examples of young, vibrant revolutionaries who fought to overthrow an overbearing power and once they had succeeded, they proceeded to behave as the power that they overthrew.

As an ethnic Chinese, I think of Mao, who lead a peasant army to overthrow a corrupt regime that was oppressing the poor. However, once in power, the communist proceeded to enforce an iron grip on power and proved to be as nasty if not more so than the nationalist that they overthrew. There are other examples. In the Middle East, there’s the example of Naser who overthrew a corrupt and repressive monarchy, only to replace it with another form of dictatorship that has stifled progress.

I think of Singapore, the country that has been my home for the last two decades. We’ve been run by the same party since our independence in 1965. While the party has delivered prosperity and done well by the citizens for the most part, they’ve moved a long way, as in a very long way, from the party that was a plucky upstart fighting to rid us from the yoke of colonial rule and later race-based politics of the Malaysian Federation. The part that once wrote a national pledge of “Regardless of Race, Language or Religion,” now stresses the fact that “The population is not ready for a non-Chinese Prime Minister,” and delightfully uses every trick in the book to ensure that it wins more than 60 percent of available seats in parliament (it remains an achievement for our rag-tag opposition to contest let alone win seats).

Why is this the case? The answer is as simple as this fact – power is exceedingly addictive. The people who get power tend not to want to lose it. Young idealist who become revolutionaries to get rid of entrenched powers becoming the very entrenched powers that they overthrew. This remains true in business and politics.

Some systems have found a way to survive this. In America, the political system was designed to limit the damage a bad leader could do. Presidents have to share power with Congress and a Supreme Court and much of the power over citizens is devolved to local governments. Furthermore, Presidents are limited to two terms of four years. Thus, you only put up with an incompetent leader for eight years at the most and no individual has to chance to hang on for years until they get drunk and senile with power.

This system works in America because there’s a reverence to the constitution and laws and there’s a press to keep the powers that be on its toes. In places that don’t have this, there is a real danger that the man in charge can merely change the laws. China is a case in point. Prior to President Xi’s ascension, it was understood that a generation of leaders would step down after a decade. While China didn’t have elections, it had some form of leadership renewal. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case and one cannot assume that President Xi, may enjoy his power a little too much, even at the risk of the wealth that the Chinese people have grown used to.

The same is true in business. The story in dynamic economies is that of plucky start-ups with a bright idea or a new technology taking on and taking market share from established firms. The problem is that once the start-ups become big firms with deep pockets, the game no longer becomes about coming up with new products that delight consumers but about enhancing market share and getting consumers to continue buying what you’ve been selling them. As I was once told, “Big firms don’t innovate, they just buy small firms that do.”

While the dangers of minimal competition for businesses are less obvious than that for political leaders, they are non the less very present. Businesses that become too interested in their market position tend to forget that consumers can find and will find alternatives. I think of Singapore’s media scene, which could not accept competition and kept peddling the myth that Singapore was too small for media competition. The established media powers were so busy defending their turf that they failed to see people moving away from printed newspapers and terrestrial television. They even got the government onto their side in branding online media as “anti-establishment.” There was one small problem. Consumers stopped reading newspapers and the advertisers noticed. Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) has had to diversify into old folks’ homes to keep shareholders happy and more recently had to suffer the indignity of being kicked off the stock exchange index.

Successful big firms are the ones that find a way of growing big but keeping their units running like start up enterprises. Big law firms are trying to do that, working as a big unit in the centre for things like branding and HR policy but getting their respective practices to compete for business like sole proprietorships. In theory this should prevent the groups from becoming immune to market forces.
The other factor for businesses is law. Laws that prevent companies from becoming monopolies should be made stronger.

Let’s go back to tech as an example. Microsoft was once a start-up that had a clear goal of having a desktop on every desk running its software. It became a monopoly and defended it tooth and nail. Unfortunately, Microsoft was late into the internet and thus lost ground to Google. Microsoft has only become a dynamic player under its current CEO, Satya Nadella, who moved it away from defending its old business market.

Limits on power are not just good for consumers or voters. They are actually good for incumbents as it keeps them on their toes and forces people to innovate. The Goliaths of the day should remember that they had their best victories as Davids and trying to crush today’s Davids will only lead to them sharing the fate of Goliath.


Tang Li

*Although I’ve been based mainly in Singapore for nearly two decades, I’ve had the privilege of being able meet people who have crossed borders and cultures. I’ve befriended ministers and ambassadors and worked on projects involving a former head of state. Yet, at the same time, I’ve had the privilege of befriending migrant labourers and former convicts. All of them have a story to tell. All of them add to the fabric of life. I hope to express the stories that inspire us to create life as it should be.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on June 26, 2020, 02:00:43 PM
三峡生死抉择,保重庆或保武汉?定了!官方溃坝3条件达到! ~ 24 Jun 2020

Deadly floods and torrential rain in China affect over 8.5 million people ~ 24 Jun 2020

Expert warns: Three Gorges Dam could collapse ~ 23 Jun 2020
With the continuous rainfall in China, an expert warns that one of the world's largest dams sitting above the Yangtze river is at risk of collapse, possibly impacting over 400-million people downstream.


重慶綦江80年來大水!洪水倒灌4萬人撤離 ~ 23 Jun 2020

上下游都水災三峽大壩「進退兩難」 高出防洪水位2米 若潰壩一天沖毀南京 ~ 23 Jun 2020

重慶綦江現1940年來最大洪水 三峽大壩上下游均告急 大災難中如何自救? ~ 23 Jun 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 01, 2020, 10:10:37 AM
Dramatic rescue as nearly 14 million people affected by floods in China ~ 29 Jun 2020
Nearly 14 million people in 26 different provinces in China have been affected by storms and floods since early June. About 744,000 people have been evacuated from the worst affected areas.

More Chinese regions brace for floods as storms shift east ~ 29 Jun 2020


Deadly floods and torrential rain in China affect over 8.5 million people ~ 24 Jun 2020

Coronavirus Returns – The situation In Beijing ~ 22 Jun 2020

COVID-19 resurgence puts 100m+ in China back in lockdown ~ 20 May 2020

ComfortDelGro suspends Nanjing driving centre amid Wuhan virus outbreak ~ 30 Jan 2020
ComfortDelGro also operates taxi services in nine cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Shenyang, Chengdu, Hengyang, Suzhou, Nanning, Nanjing and Jilin.

4 insights from ComfortDelGro’s latest business update ~ 26 May 2020
  • For taxi division, COVID-19 relief schemes announced by ComfortDelGro have been extended until September this year and will be reviewed further depending on how the pandemic evolves. In response to COVID-19 lockdowns, China taxi rentals have been almost fully waived.
  • Operating profit for the group dived by 48% year on year to S$55.9 million, while net profit shrank by almost 49% year on year to S$36 million.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 02, 2020, 12:38:05 PM
今日新加坡,明日香康,后日台湾。Yesterday's Singapore was today's Hong Kong and tomorrow's Taiwan.
The Chinese Communist Party is determined to change Hong kong into a mini-communist state. The new Beijing-imposed national security law is similar to the ISA designed to get rid of political opponents.

Hundreds arrested in Hong Kong protests as security law comes into effect ~ 2 Jul 2020

Hundreds arrested on first day of Hong Kong national security law ~ 1 Jul 2020


Singapore Internal Security Act 1960 (No. 18 of 1960)

Operation Coldstore
Operation Coldstore, sometimes spelled Operation Cold Store, was the code name for a covert security operation carried out in Singapore on 2 February 1963 which led to the arrest of 113 people, who were detained without trial under the Preservation of Public Service Security Ordinance (PSSO). In official accounts, the operation was a security operation "aimed at crippling the Communist open front organisation," which threatened Singapore's internal security. The operation was authorised by the Internal Security Council which was composed of representatives from the British, Singapore and Malayan Federal governments.

Operation Coldstore: Singapore’s struggle to confront history ~ 24 May 2018
On 2 February 1963, more than 100 unionists, anti-colonial activists, and politicians were detained without trial in a series of arrests code-named Operation Coldstore. The authorities justified the action as necessary to “safeguard against any attempt by the Communists to mount violence or disorder in the closing stages of the establishment of the Federation of Malaysia”.

Former Coldstore detainee Yeo San Chai in his Singapore bookstore.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 03, 2020, 10:50:53 AM
【选举】前进党西海岸竞选团队 被要求撤下50海报 ~ 3 Jul 2020


Singapore GE2020: PSP makes police report over damaged posters ~ 2 Jul 2020

Photos of damaged posters of the Progress Singapore Party team contesting in Chua Chu Kang GRC.


Singapore PM’s nephew Li Shengwu loses appeal in high-profile contempt case ~ 2 Jul 2020
Li’s appeal argued the attorney general was wrong to serve him court documents outside Singapore.
If upheld, it could have given Li’s legal team the chance to suspend the case against him.

State seeks $15,000 fine against Li Shengwu for scandalising judiciary ~ 2 Jul 2020

新加坡大选在即,加入反对党后,李显龙弟弟李显扬为何不参选? ~ 1 Jul 2020

Lee Hsien Yang: We can create a government that listens ~ 29 Jun 2020

【新加坡大选】 李显扬:希望国会议员能更多元 ~ 27 Jun 2020

新加坡7月10日大选,李光耀次子李显扬加入反对党 ~ 24 Jun 2020

A message from Mr Lee Hsien Yang to all Singaporeans ~ 24 Jun 2020


李显扬资助社运人士范国瀚 就藐视法庭罪名上诉 ~ 22 May 2019

Lee Kuan Yew’s grandson, Li Shengwu, says he fled Singapore because he feared arrest ~ 18 Aug 2017
Li, whose father is embroiled in a family feud with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, says he was warned by friends that he faced detention for contempt case.


李显扬是终结PAP执政关键人物? ~ 29 Jun 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on July 15, 2020, 07:50:36 AM
UK to purge Huawei technology from 5G networks by 2027 ~ 14 Jul 2020
Under the blueprint, British phone companies will not be able to add any new Huawei components to their 5G networks by the end of the year. After that, all existing equipment made by the Shenzhen-based company would need to be removed from 5G infrastructure by 2027.

中國5G市場吃飽飽?華為營收逆勢成長逾13% 英國宣布"2階段封殺"補刀? ~ 14 Jul 2020

China Roundup: Tech giants take stance on Beijing’s data control in Hong Kong ~ 13 Jul 2020
China’s national security law has important implications for the tech sector, providing a litmus test of business sentiment toward China’s regulation over information. Google, Facebook, Twitter, Telegram, Zoom and Reddit are among a roster of companies that have come to voice their stance.

The tech industry comes to grips with Hong Kong’s national security law ~ 8 Jul 2020
An unintended implication of Hong Kong’s loss of its special status is the potential inconvenience to mainland companies. It’s a common practice for Chinese companies to maintain a Hong Kong entity as a gateway to purchase U.S. technologies, tapping the region’s favorable trading terms, the venture partner said. Many Chinese exporters also take advantage of Hong Kong’s well-developed financial system and currency stability to handle international fund transfers. “If that expediency is gone, Hong Kong is just another Chinese city,” said the investor.

Singapore decides on 5G networks: Is Huawei banned? ~ 2 Jul 2020
Singapore isn’t choosing sides in the geopolitical tug-of-war between China and the United States.

How China’s national security law could change Hong Kong forever ~ 1 Jul 2020
Beijing has unanimously passed a new national security law for the territory, which some experts warn has the potential to erode the very structures that grant the region major privileges on the international stage.

US suspends export of sensitive tech to Hong Kong as China passes new national security law ~ 30 Jun 2020
The U.S. government’s announcements were made a few hours before news broke that China had passed a new national security law that will give it greater control over Hong Kong. It is expected to take effect on July 1, 2020.

National security law: Could Singapore take Hong Kong’s finance crown? It’s keeping mum ~ 28 Jun 2020
City state has been clear it does not want to be seen as taking advantage of Hong Kong’s political turmoil.
Yet its similar tax rates, lower rents and safe streets are likely to appeal to any businesses that do decide to relocate.

Huawei loses out as Singapore telecom operators choose 5G providers ~ 25 Jun 2020
Singapore’s biggest telecom operators Singtel and StarHub have chosen Ericsson and Nokia as their main 5G network provider.
Huawei, which is a focal point in US/China tensions, still has a foothold in the Singapore market through TPG Telecom’s smaller, local network system.

What will happen to your business in Hong Kong?

By J. Stewart Black and Allen J. Morrison
June 17, 2020

More than 9,000 foreign firms operate in Hong Kong, among them 1,300 from the United States. So when the Chinese legislature recently passed a new security law intended to prevent “secession, subversion, terrorism and foreign interference” in Hong Kong, many CEOs and top executives began wondering about the business implications. The U.S. State Department added to the uncertainty last month by declaring that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous enough to warrant special treatment.

Between us we have researched in and about China and Hong Kong for many years, and we know that there’s no single answer to this question. That’s in part because the implications of these two developments for firms will depend in large part on why they are in Hong Kong in the first place. Most are there for one of three main reasons, so let’s consider each:

For Hong Kong

These firms want access to Hong Kong’s upstream resources and downstream opportunities. They tend to be relatively small service firms focused on specialized areas such as finance. (Hong Kong was recently ranked the #3 financial center in the world after New York and London.) Part of the reason companies in this category tend to be smaller is that Hong Kong is a relatively small economy, with a GDP in 2019 of just U.S. $352 billion, which ranks about 35th in the world. Most of these firms are in the service sector because that sector represents nearly 93% of Hong Kong’s GDP.

Because of the dominant role of services in Hong Kong’s economy, any movement up or down in GDP has a direct and significant effect on the revenues of this first category of foreign firms. As political tensions in Hong Kong increased in the second half of 2019, Hong Kong’s GDP dropped 1.2% for the year, and the country officially slipped into recession. More worrisome, foreign direct investment (FDI) into Hong Kong fell a staggering 47% in 2019 to $55 billion. In the process Hong Kong fell from the #3 destination globally, just behind China, to #5. It will take months and even years to learn how China’s new security law will affect Hong Kong, and how countries around the world will react, but it is hard to imagine the specifics helping GDP and FDI. First that are in Hong Kong for Hong Kong will feel the pain immediately and directly.

If this weren’t enough, brain drain could also hurt these firms. Countries such as the U.S., UK, and Canada have all indicated their willingness to adjust their immigration or citizenship rules to allow, as the U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo put it, “Hong Kong people…[to] bring their entrepreneurial creativity to our country.” Firms in Hong Kong for Hong Kong rely heavily on local talent, and a loss of the best and brightest to other countries could be devastating to them.

For China

These firms—1,300 of them from the United States—are in Hong Kong largely for the access it provides them to China, though most of them are also there for Hong Kong. A quick review of a few key numbers will make it clear why these firms have decided that Hong Kong offers them good access.

In 2019, China was the second largest recipient of FDI in the world ($139 billion), behind only the United States. According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, approximately two-thirds of all the FDI into China came via Hong Kong. In 2018 Hong Kong exported $25.3 billion to China, which was Hong Kong’s #1 destination and accounted for 20% of all of its exports. China exported $282 billion to Hong Kong, which was China’s #2 destination after the United States ($499 billion) and accounted for 10.9% of all of China’s exports. In 2018, U.S. $37 billion (8%) of Mainland China’s exports to the United States and roughly U.S. $10 billion of China’s imports from the United States were transshipped through Hong Kong. In terms of capital flows, over the last decade approximately 80% of the IPOs outside Mainland China have been issued in Hong Kong. In addition, Hong Kong has handled about 40% of Chinese firms’ U.S. dollar-bond issuances. Given all of this, and Hong Kong’s proximity to Mainland China, it’s no surprise that so many foreign firms are in Hong Kong.

If Hong Kong loses its special status for good, these firms could get hurt in two ways. First, if the United States does anything to curtail debt or equity transactions in Hong Kong by Chinese firms, foreign firms based in China that collect significant fees for facilitating these transactions would see their top line shrink. Second, if tariffs or export controls are created for China and extended to Hong Kong, this could affect $47 billion worth of annual transshipments and hit the revenues of foreign firms based in Hong Kong that are involved in numerous aspects of these transactions—everything from logistics and financing to legal and banking activities.

In effect, those firms that are in Hong Kong for China, and especially any of the 1,300 or so U.S. firms in this category, could easily find themselves caught in the crossfire between China and the United States. Ironically, in the past Hong Kong’s special status either largely protected these firms from being caught in the middle, or in some cases helped them benefit. For example, past trade tensions between the United States and China have caused transshipments to increase. Those firms that were in Hong Kong for China and that were involved in in these transshipments benefited from the increase. With the loss of special status, these benefits would disappear.

Another potential area of concern for firms that are in Hong Kong for China firms would be changes in visa requirements.  Currently, many nations, including the United States, have agreements with Hong Kong that require no visas and allow temporary stays of up to three months. In contrast, China has cumbersome visa requirements with most of these same countries. The loss of  Hong Kong’s special status regarding visas could mean that firms that are in Hong Kong for China would probably find it much more difficult for their employees to fly into Hong Kong to conduct business for China.

For Asia

There are 1,541 foreign firms that have their regional headquarters in Hong Kong, including over 300 U.S. firms. These firms use Hong Kong as their base of operations for activities throughout Asia, from Japan in the north to Australia in the south, and from Indonesia in the east to India in the west. Obviously, Hong Kong and China fall within these boundaries.

Hong Kong’s global and regional standing in finance facilitates the coordination of capital requirements for the region. If the new particulars of the security law end up being strict enough, and reactions from the United States and United Kingdom are strong enough that Hong Kong’s standing in the financial markets shrinks significantly, Singapore could become an attractive alternative for regional headquarters. Many aspects of its financial market, from company listings to foreign currency exchange, already rival or surpasses Hong Kong. Its political security, efficient infrastructure, quality schools, and other features only add to its attractiveness as a base for regional headquarters. U.S. technology firms in fact already have twice as many regional headquarters in Singapore as in Hong Kong.

Expatriates typically play a critical role and constitute an important portion of senior managers and top executives in virtually all regional headquarters. The thought of Chinese secret police being embedded in Hong Kong might make it difficult, or at least more expensive, to entice key expatriates to take up regional positions in Hong Kong. Often expatriates are put in these slots not just to do the job but as a core part of their development as future global leaders, and therefore simply substituting locals for expatriates would not be a satisfying option for most firms. Any brain drain of local talent would only amplify this leadership shortfall.

What should CEOs do?

Despite all of the differences outlined above, there are three general actions that firms in all three categories should take:
It is hard to predict exactly how severe the new security law will be or how the United States and other nations will react. But no matter what happens, the firms that will hit the right balance between doing too little and too much are those that understand clearly why they are in Hong Kong; that know what factors will help or hurt them the most; and that take the basic steps outlined above. And at the end of the day, China is still very dependent on Hong Kong for trade, FDI, equity and debt capital, and foreign exchange—and that self-interest should keep its leaders from going too far with implementing the security law.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 04, 2020, 01:13:30 PM
闫丽梦博士:病毒被中共军方发现和拥有,经过精心策划;来自自然演化的可能性为零 ~ 2 Aug 2020

7月28日闫丽梦博士首次接受路德采访 ~ 28 Jul 2020

「WHO」~ 17 Feb 2020

「問我國家哪像染病」 ~ 24 Jan 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 16, 2020, 10:57:28 AM
新加坡机场防疫·90%乘客全副武装 ~ 13 Aug 2020


新冠肺炎:新加坡机场9成旅客全副武装候机,网民:跟拍生化电影一样 ~ 13 Aug 2020


AirAsia to resume Malaysia-Singapore flights following 'green lane' decision ~ 4 Aug 2020


返回上海开工 吴振天IG记录离境隔离过程 ~ 7 Jul 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 22, 2020, 10:47:04 AM
Singapore reports 117 new COVID-19 infections; 5 of 6 community cases unlinked ~ 22 Aug 2020
This brings the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country to 56,216.

COVID-19: Experts warn Singapore corporate earnings could see slow and uneven recovery ~ 19 Aug 2020

Workers aged 35 to 44 and lower-income earners hit hardest by pay cuts due to Covid-19: DBS report ~ 18 Aug 2020

445,536 lower-income workers’ incomes decline more than 50%

By Leong Sze Hian
August 21st, 2020

“Workers aged 35 to 44 and lower-income earners hit hardest by pay cuts due to Covid-19: DBS report” (ST, Aug 18) – “More than a quarter of these workers have seen their incomes decline in recent months. Among them, more than half (56%) saw their incomes plunge by more than 30%”

As there are 551,800 resident (S’porean & PR) workers aged 35 to 44 (Yearbook of Manpower Statistics 2020) – does it mean that about 80,342 workers (551.800 x 26% x 56) “saw their incomes plunge by more than 30%”?

“The DBS report was based on macro-economic data and anonymised findings from 1.2 million retail customers aged 25 to 70 who use DBS as their main salary crediting bank, over the March to May period. Work permit holders were excluded from the analysis.

The report also found that lower-income workers – those who earn less than $3,000 per month – make up almost half of customers who have experienced a fall in salaries. Within this group, 51% saw their incomes decline by more than half.”

As there are 873,600 resident (S’porean & PR) lower-income workers who earn less than $3,000 per month, excluding the unemployed (Yearbook of Manpower Statistics 2020) – does it mean that about 445,536 workers (873,600 x 51%) “saw their incomes decline by more than half”?

“Many people also do not have sufficient savings to tide them over their loss in earnings. In May, 64% of workers who had experienced a significant fall in income had less than three months of emergency funds. Among this group, 42% – or 27% of those who had taken large pay cuts – had less than a month of such funds.”

In this connection – “the extension of the COVID-19 Support Grant (CSG) until December 2020.

The grant was introduced in May to help Singaporeans and permanent residents who are unemployed or have suffered significant income loss. So far, more than S$90 million has been disbursed to over 60,000 people” (“Extension of Jobs Support Scheme among S$8 billion worth of measures”, CNA, Aug 17)

As “Full-time or part-time employees affected by the economic impact of the COVID-19 situation (loss of job/income or start of involuntary no-pay leave should have occurred after 23 Jan 2020)” (MSF Assistance) – does it mean that after more than 6 months (from 23 Jan) – the average payout per person is about $1,500 ($90m divided by 60,000)?

30Jun Non-seasonally adjusted Unemployed S’poreans 111,100 (Unemployment rate 5.6%), PRs 14,100 (3.4% estimate), Foreigners 22,900 (1.8% estimate) (MOM Statistical Table: Unemployment)

In addition to the above, & the above estimated 445,536 workers who “saw their incomes decline by more than half” & the “80,342 workers aged 35 to 44, who “”saw their incomes plunge by more than 30%” – how many (including those who earn more than $3,000, & those below 35 & over 44) are “presently experiencing reduced monthly salary of at least 30% for at least three consecutive months”?

How many are “presently on involuntary no-pay leave (NPL) for at least three consecutive months”?
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on August 24, 2020, 03:00:20 PM


F&N ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$0.72

F&N closed with a drangonfly doji unchanged @ S$1.30 with thin volume done at 40,000 shares on 21 Aug 2020.

Immediate support @ S$1.23, immediate resistance @ S$1.33.


Bearish Rounding Top Chart Pattern


F&N (weekly) ~ Bearish Descending Triangle Breakout, interim TP S$0.72 ~ 21 Aug 2020


Bearish Descending Triangle Chart Pattern

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 07, 2020, 05:00:13 PM

First Reit ~ Bearish Rounding Top Breakout, downside biased

First Reit closed with a black marubozu @ S$1.04 (-0.08, -7.1%) with 4.66m shares done on 19 Nov 2018.

Immediate support @ S$1.02, immediate resistance @ S$1.13.


K1 Ventures ~ Fall off the cliff

K1 Ventures had a black marubozu and traded @ S$0.565 (-0.04, -6.6%) with 560,000 shares done on 25 May 2017 at 0950 hrs.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 07, 2020, 05:19:03 PM


SATS ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP S$2.52 next TP S$1.50

SATS closed with a spinning top @ S$2.91 (+0.05, +1.7%) with 4.21m shares done on 17 Jul 2020.

Immediate support @ S$2.85, immediate resistance @ S$3.08.


Starhub ~ Fall off the cliff

Starhub closed with a black marubozu @ S$2.72 with 3.42m shares done on 9 May 2017.

Immediate support @ S$2.68, immediate resistance @ S$2.76.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 09, 2020, 08:19:21 AM
REIT Global (7 Sep 2020) Vs Singtel (25 Jan 2018) ~ Confluence of 4 moving averages = 箭在弦上,一触即发。


IREIT Global ~ Confluence of 4 moving averages

IREIT Global closed with a white marubozu @ S$0.695 (+0.005, +0.7%) with 350,000 shares done on 7 Sep 2020.

Immediate support @ S$0.68, strong resistance @ S$0.73.


Singtel ~ Confluence of 4 moving averages

Singtel had a dark cloud cover and traded @ S$3.61 (-0.03. -0.8%) with 14.5m shares done on 25 Jan 2018 at 1425 hrs.

Immediate support @ S$3.60, immediate resistance @ S$3.65.


Singtel closed @ S$2.24 on 8 Sep 2020.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 10, 2020, 03:26:14 PM
David and Goliath
In modern usage, the phrase "David and Goliath" has taken on a secular meaning, denoting an underdog situation, a contest where a smaller, weaker opponent faces a much bigger, stronger adversary; if successful, the underdog may win in an unusual or surprising way. It is arguably the most famous underdog story.


The six degrees of separation in the Liew Mun Leong and Parti Liyani case ~ 9 Sep 2020

Temasek defends Changi Airport boss after maid acquitted, netizens rage over abuse ~ 9 Sep 2020
When Parti reacted to her termination by threatening to notify the labour authorities, Liew and his son Karl Liew, “followed up with the police report to ensure her return would be prevented”, the judge said, referring to the family’s apparent attempt to block Parti from returning to Singapore from Indonesia. He went on to add that, “In my view, the Liew family might not have made a police report had Parti not made her express threat on Oct 28, 2016 to report the matter to MOM.”


Authorities will deal with what had gone wrong: Shanmugam on acquitted maid case ~ 8 Sep 2020
Ex-maid acquitted of stealing from CAG chairman: Something has gone wrong and has to be set right, says Shanmugam on handling of case

Ho Ching lambasted by netizens for praising former CapitaLand’s chief executive Liew Mun Leong of “building people”, after the case of Parti Liyani ~ 7 Sep 2020

More than S$28,500 raised for maid acquitted of stealing from CAG chairman ~ 7 Sep 2020

Indonesian maid says she forgives Singapore’s Changi Airport Group boss Liew Mun Leong for accusing her of stealing ~ 5 Sep 2020
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 11, 2020, 04:30:00 PM
曾"为国操盘" 期货上赚500万美金的投资大师郭鹤年! ~ 10 Sep 2020

金龙鱼递交注册:上半年营收870亿 实控人为郭鹤年家族 ~ 8 Sep 2020


一次看懂 | 郭鹤年被逼出大马,到成为世界糖王!最终发怒,引发马来西亚面包大战?全国华人鼎力相助? ~ 5 Sep 2020

After 10 years' trial, it is one day's jail and RM2.5m fine for ex-Transmile boss ~ 27 Aug 2020
Transmile was once a star of the local equity market whose investors included business tycoon Robert Kuok and Pos Malaysia Bhd, but the company fell from grace in 2007 when it was revealed that its stellar results were due to massive accounting irregularities.

Forbes Malaysia's 50 Richest 2020: Slowing economy takes a toll on country's tycoons ~ 4 Mar 2020
Nonagenarian business legend Robert Kuok, with a net worth of $11.5 billion, remains at No. 1, a position he has held for over two decades. Kuok is among four list members whose wealth shrank by more than $1 billion in the past year.

《对话》:华商领袖郭鹤 (Robert Kuok interview dated 3 Sep 2011)

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 17, 2020, 11:25:45 AM
Maid’s acquittal reignites debate on ‘pliant’ S’pore judiciary ~ 15 Sep 2020
Critics say Singapore's courts favor the rich and powerful.

Singapore: Changi Airport chairman Liew Mun Leong resigns after acquittal of former domestic worker ~ 10 Sep 2020
In a statement, Liew said he had resigned as chairman of state-owned Changi as well as government-linked infrastructure consultancy firm Surbana Jurong. He also vacated his position as a senior adviser to state investor Temasek and as a board member of its charity arm.


China's 'My father is Li Gang' case ~ 26 Jan 2011
The Li Gang incident occurred on the evening of October 16, 2010, inside Hebei University in Baoding in Hebei province of China, when a black Volkswagen Magotan traveling down a narrow lane hit two university students.

"我爸是李刚"全纪录 ~ 31 Oct 2010

“我爸是李刚”主角出狱,事件大反转真相竟是…… ~ 17 Dec 2019

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 18, 2020, 11:20:57 AM
香港回归中国「认祖归宗」 ('Made in Hong Kong' will be relabeled ‘Made in China’)

Trump’s attack on the ‘Made-in-Hong Kong’ label expected to hurt some firms but not local pride in brand ~ 16 Sep 2020

WSJ: What other cities could offer to businesses leaving Hong Kong ~ 15 Sep 2020

鏗鏘集:香港製造 ~ 14 Sep 2020

消失的歸屬感和抗共的決心 中共讓香港人明白了什麼? ~ 14 Sep 2020

The hollowing out of Hong Kong ~ 12 Sep 2020

BBC:「香港製造」被迫變「中國製造」 醬園老闆嘆:像失去了身份 ~ 9 Sep 2020

Hong Kong’s US-bound exports to be labeled ‘Made in China’: What does it mean? ~ 25 Aug 2020

Why the loss of the ‘Made in Hong Kong’ label is no trifling matter ~ 21 Aug 2020
with the suspension of Hong Kong’s preferential trade status, the US government has announced that from September 25, merchandise exported from the city to the US would have to be labelled “Made in China” instead of “Made in Hong Kong”. This would truly be a nightmare for Hong Kong businesses. (Hong Kong marking transition period as been extended for an additional 45 days to November 9, 2020)


‘Made in China’ label ruling hits a raw nerve in Hong Kong ~ 14 Aug 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 18, 2020, 01:09:33 PM

Organ harvesting: A blind eye to mass atrocity ~ 14 Sep 2020
For the CCP, removing and selling organs from prisoners of conscience is a huge business. The perpetrator of this atrocity is the machinery of the Chinese Communist Party, operating on an industrial scale. It is now thought that there may be something in the region of 60,000–100,000 such transplants every year, with hearts, lungs, kidneys, livers, and corneas for sale in an industry worth billions of dollars. This is über-big business for China, with its wealthier citizens besides rich people from the USA, UK and around the world getting these transplants—some surely knowing, some less aware, where their donated organs are coming from. Some countries have taken measures against such “transplant tourism,” including Taiwan, Israel, Spain, and Italy. Others remain complicit in this crime against humanity.

消失的歸屬感和抗共的決心 中共讓香港人明白了什麼? ~ 14 Sep 2020

全球染疫超过2500万 香港医护吁抵制全民检测 ~ 31 Aug 2020

香港活动人士黄之锋呼吁抵制全民检测 ~ 30 Aug 2020

Why Hong Kongers are suspicious of universal Covid-19 testing ~ 25 Aug 2020

新疆喀什全民免費檢測 中共被疑隱疫或採DNA ~ 14 Aug 2020

香港推全民核酸检测 港民忧DNA被“送中” ~ 7 Aug 2020

港人失蹤4結局 6千人被抓去哪了? ~ 13 Dec 2019


民主自由是需要治療的「毒癮」?中共政權下的香港與新疆 ~ 3 Dec 2019

维族医师揭露器官移植黑幕 吁关注新疆人权 ~ 30 Oct 2017

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 24, 2020, 03:16:53 PM
原主人 (中華民國) 在台灣一直存在


克拉奇訪台後,蔡英文為何說決心踏出關鍵一步?出現「台灣駐美大使」稱號,台美關係出現變化?川普政府滅共佈局開始了? ~ 22 Sep 2020

Highest-level U.S. Official since 1979 Keith Krach Visits Taiwan (2020) ~ 22 Sep 2020


From founder to exile: Taiwan’s relationship with the WHO ~ 20 Apr 2020

Assignment: China - "The week that changed the world"
Richard Nixon's visit to China in February 1972 changed the course of history — reshaping the global balance of power and opening the door to the establishment of relations between the People's Republic and the United States.

In February 1972 US President Richard Nixon made an unprecedented 8-day visit to the People’s Republic of China and met with Chinese leader Mao Zedong.


US President Richard Nixon shakes hands with Chou En-lai.




辛灏年: 中共在抗战中做了什么
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 25, 2020, 08:04:03 AM
SIA closed @ S$3.39 (-0.07, -2.02%) on 24 Sep 2020.


Commentary: We must save Singapore Airlines from this existential crisis ~ 24 Sep 2020

Shareholder raises concerns about SIA’s 15 years of fuel hedging losses to Prime Minister Lee, as no one takes accountability ~ 23 Sep 2020
“Please do not hide all of these troubles under the cloud cover of COVID-19, just as the 15 years of hedge losses had been in the fine footnotes, so that even your then Chairman said he didn’t know of this. He reiterated that SIA’s core competence is not fuel trading but airline operations.


Weak travel demand aside, SIA has major problems to fix

By Tay Peck Gek
23 Sep 2020

The pain being felt by the aviation sector is global, and Singapore Airlines (SIA) and its top brass should not be unfairly penalised for factors that are beyond their control. But some of the hits that SIA has taken could have been reduced or even avoided.

Take, for instance, SIA's investments in foreign airlines NokScoot Airlines and V-irgin Australia, which have filed for liquidation and voluntary administration, respectively.

Thailand-based low-cost carrier NokScoot and Brisbane-based full-service airline V-irgin Australia had been struggling with turning a profit even before the pandemic. Consequently, they were among the earliest casualties of the pandemic.

NokScoot was a 49 per cent-owned associated company of Scoot Tigerair, an SIA subsidiary. Its liquidation led SIA to record a charge of S$127 million for the first quarter ended June 30. This came after SIA had written off the carrying value of its investment in NokScoot in previous financial periods.

NokScoot was established in Thailand in 2014 with an initial total investment of S$78 million as a joint venture medium- to long-haul low cost airline. Since inception, it has never been able to deliver a full-year profit. SIA had injected an additional S$10.2 million in capital in the fiscal year 2020 and S$9.9 million in FY2019.

Much of NokScoot's losses were attributed to the difficulties in growing the network as well as the intense competitive environment, Scoot said in a media statement on NokScoot's liquidation. It did not see a path to recovery and sustainable growth for NokScoot, amid a difficult operating environment brought on by the novel coronavirus pandemic.

SIA similarly had to write off its 20 per cent stake in V-irgin Australia, and it recognised an impairment loss of S$344 million for the year ended March.

SIA's expansion through foreign joint ventures was part of a multi-hub strategy to set up hubs outside of Singapore and to create new engines of growth in key markets.

But Citi analyst Kaseedit Choonnawat noted the national carrier's poor track record in such foreign investments, and expressed doubts about the prudence of its intention to utilise a portion of the recent S$8.8 billion raised to "capture potential opportunities" thrown up by the pandemic.

NokScoot and V-irgin Australia were not the first investments to go bad for SIA, with V-irgin Atlantic and Air New Zealand setting precedents.

SIA acquired a 49 per cent stake in V-irgin Atlantic for £600 million (then S$1.6 billion) in 2000 but was only paid US$360 million (then S$440 million) when it offloaded the stake to United States carrier Delta Air in 2012. SIA had at the time said its investment had not performed to expectations and the synergies originally hoped for did not materialise.

The company also lost most of the more than NZ$400 million it invested in Air New Zealand following the near collapse and subsequent government-led rescue of the Kiwi carrier in the early 2000s.

Certainly, international investments carry a great deal of risk. But as SIA reviews its fleet and network plans to prepare for a very different aviation landscape post-pandemic, it is hoped that the company's investment track record may be an aspect for consideration.
Fuel hedging losses.

Meanwhile, SIA is also now drawing criticism over fuel hedging losses that The Business Times had written about in this column some time back.

A shareholder has taken to Facebook urging SIA chief executive Goh Choon Phong to step down and take responsibility for these losses.

Lim Seng Hoo said in his Facebook posts that he had earlier flagged fuel hedging losses to the airline and appealed to it to stop its hedging practice, but to no avail.

SIA racked up S$71 million in fuel hedging losses for its quarter to June, and also recognised S$464 million in mark-to-market losses from surplus hedges that arose because of capacity cuts resulting from the pandemic.

In the quarter ended March, it booked S$198 million in fuel hedging losses and S$710 million in mark-to-market losses.

SIA has warned of further fuel hedging losses ahead, and has recognised S$2.6 billion in mark-to-market losses in its reserves for FY2021 for contracts maturing between FY2022 and FY2025.

Hedging aims to reduce the risk of losing money on shares, bonds or other securities that one owns. But SIA is now losing big on its hedges.

At the time it entered into these hedges, oil prices were admittedly rising fast. But some market watchers have suggested SIA went overboard by locking in its jet fuel costs five years into the future - surpassing global airlines in the number of months forward that it hedged its fuel requirements.

As controversial as its fuel hedging strategy was its massive capital expenditure (capex) programme, which burned through more than the cash flow generated from its operations. Consequently, its free cash flow was in negative territory for the last four financial years - with deficits ranging from S$1.25 billion to S$2.72 billion. Its long-term borrowings ballooned from S$1.53 billion to S$7.16 billion.

UOB Kay Hian analyst K Ajith suggested in a May report that SIA's original plans for S$23.5 billion in capex over the next five years were "excessive and detrimental to the balance sheet, even pre-Covid-19".

SIA has since announced it will lower capex this financial year by at least 12 per cent, compared with its previous plan, with the final reduction to be determined by talks with planemakers over delivery delays.

But even after travel demand returns to its pre-Covid levels, SIA may need to be less ambitious with its fleet renewal plan.
SIA's strategy over the last few years left little margin for error, and the company's various stakeholders are now paying the price.

SIA may exhaust $8.8b debt proceeds before market recovers: analyst ~ 15 Sep 2020


“农家小子”陈久霖逆袭成“打工皇帝”,狂妄赌徒能赢多久? ~ 20 May 2020
Costly lessons from the CAO scandal ~ 23 Dec 2004
China Aviation Oil (CAO), voted as the most transparent company listed on Singapore Exchange, had collapsed because of a US$550 million loss in speculative oil trading in 2004. This was the second major derivative scandal at the Singapore Exchange. The first one was the collapse of UK''s Barings Bank in 1995.



Gambling with other people’s money

Imagine a superb poker player who asks you for a loan to finance his nightly poker playing. For every $100 he gambles, he’s willing to put up $3 of his own money. He wants you to lend him the rest. You will not get a stake in his winning. Instead, he’ll give you a fixed rate of interest on your $97 loan.

The poker player likes this situation for two reasons. First, it minimizes his downside risk. He can only lose $3. Second, borrowing has a great effect on his investment — it gets leveraged. If his $100 bet ends up yielding $103, he has made a lot more than 3 percent — in fact, he has doubled his money. His $3 investment is now worth $6.

But why would you, the lender, play this game? It’s a pretty risky game for you. Suppose your friend starts out with a stake of $10,000 for the night, putting up $300 himself and borrowing $9,700 from you. If he loses anything more than 3 percent on the night, he can’t make good on your loan.

Not to worry — your friend is an extremely skilled and prudent poker player who knows when to hold ,em and when to fold ,em. He may lose a hand or two because poker is a game of chance, but by the end of the night, he’s always ahead. He always makes good on his debts to you. He has never had a losing evening. As a creditor of the poker player, this is all you care about. As long as he can make good on his debt, you’re fine. You care only about one thing — that he stays solvent so that he can repay his loan and you get your money back.

But the gambler cares about two things. Sure, he too wants to stay solvent. Insolvency wipes out his investment, which is always unpleasant — it’s bad for his reputation and hurts his chances of being able to use leverage in the future. But the gambler doesn’t just care about avoiding the downside. He also cares about the upside. As the lender, you don’t share in the upside; no matter how much money the gambler makes on his bets, you just get your promised amount of interest.

If there is a chance to win a lot of money, the gambler is willing to take a big risk. After all, his downside is small. He only has $3 at stake. To gain a really large pot of money, the gambler will take a chance on an inside straight.

As the lender of the bulk of his funds, you wouldn't want the gambler to take that chance. You know that when the leverage ratio — the ratio of borrowed funds to personal assets — is 32–1 ($9700 divided by $300), the gambler will take a lot more risk than you’d like. So you keep an eye on the gambler to make sure that he continues to be successful in his play.

But suppose the gambler becomes increasingly reckless. He begins to draw to an inside straight from time to time and pursue other high-risk strategies that require making very large bets that threaten his ability to make good on his promises to you. After all, it’s worth it to him. He’s not playing with very much of his own money. He is playing mostly with your money. How will you respond?

You might stop lending altogether, concerned that you will lose both your interest and your principal. Or you might look for ways to protect yourself. You might demand a higher rate of interest. You might ask the player to put up his own assets as collateral in case he is wiped out. You might impose a covenant that legally restricts the gambler’s behavior, barring him from drawing to an inside straight, for example.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on September 26, 2020, 01:50:22 PM
万达为鸿泰能源还债 ~ 25 Sep 2020
中国万达集团即将与其新加坡石油贸易子公司鸿泰能源(Hontop Energy)的2家主要贷款银行了结债务纠纷。

王健林资产有多少?万达集团王健林2020年资产多少?~ 21 Sep 2020

手头有点紧,“1亿小目标”变了,王健林清仓海外地产,从买买买到卖卖卖! ~ 1 Aug 2020

王健林再次失守,万达旗下公司面临破产,负债343亿元! - 8 Jul 2020


习近平粉碎王健林全球野心,却又救他一命,海航安邦被查封,唯万达逃生;普利策奖获得者主编深度调查披露王健林起落史 ~ 29 Jun 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 03, 2020, 02:23:25 PM
Is the Medishield Life really a shield against medical costs? Or is it really a battering ram to already tight pockets? ~ 1 Oct 2020
The Medishield Life Council has just announced a whole raft of potential changes to Singapore’s national health insurance scheme that can see premiums rise by 35%.

MediShield Life to increase premiums by up to 35%, Singaporeans think it’s “daylight robbery” ~ 30 Sep 2020
The Government announced that MediShield Life premiums may rise by up to 35% in 2021. This will be the first increase in premiums for compulsory health insurance since its launch in 2015.

MediShield Life may let Singaporeans claim up to $150,000 next year, but premiums go up by 35% ~ 30 Sep 2020

Ms Teo hints CPF Minimum Sum may be raised again; CPF payouts not enough for basic standard of living ~ 17 Nov 2019
For example, those who turned 55 this year, the Minimum Sum would be $176,000. This is the mandatory sum to be kept with CPF Board at 55. One can only get monthly payouts from it at 65 and after. The CPF Minimum Sum for 2021 and beyond, which is yet to be announced, would likely to be higher than the 2020’s $181,000.

How much of your CPF be locked up when you reach age 55? ~ 25 Oct 2019


Why is our CPF lock in and only return to us monthly when we reach 65. As promise we should be able to drawdown fully when we reach 55?


How CPF locks up Singaporeans’ money ~ 25 Jun 2009

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 05, 2020, 08:56:17 AM
How Evergrande's billionaire founder skirted his latest crisis ~ 3 Oct 2020
Hui Ka Yan, the rags to riches billionaire who runs China’s most indebted developer, skirted his latest crisis in much the same way he always has: with help from wealthy friends and a government fearful of financial instability.

Evergrande: To save or not to save? Is China’s financial crisis coming? ~ 30 Sep 2020
“To be, or not to be, that is the question” for Prince Hamlet.
“To save or not to save Evergrande”, that is the question for the CCP.

China Evergrande pre-empts US$19 billion cash crunch as investors drop repayment option in Shenzhen reorganisation plan ~ 30 Sep 2020

China can't afford to let its property market crash ~ 4 Sep 2020
While that's a challenge to companies such as Guangzhou-based Evergrande, which at one point was the world’s most indebted developer, the big companies have always found ways to raise funds.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 12, 2020, 09:26:16 AM

Businesses that are disappearing ~ 4 Aug 2020

1.   Newspapers
2.   City Newsstands
3.   Bookstores
4.   Other Publishers
5.   Logging/Paper Mills
6.   Private Household Employees
7.   Cable and Other Subscription Programming
8.   Professional Employer Organizations
9.   Land Subdivision
10. Photofinishing
11. Video Rental
12. Recording Studios
13. Manufacturing
14. Textiles/Apparel Manufacturing
15. Formal Wear and Costume Rental
16. Data Recovery
17. Retail Stores
18. The Postal Service
19. Lending/Savings/Credit Intermediation Institutions
20. Small Business Startups
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 22, 2020, 09:06:09 PM

新加坡政府在政治上是强力支持美国。但是,在经济上却是非常亲中国的CCP。(一脚踏兩船 = win-win situation)

Singapore firing on all cylinders to attract MNCs

By Foong Swee Fong
October 21st, 2020

Is that a good strategy for a developed country with healthy reserves?

In poor, developing countries, it makes sense to attract foreign MNCs. They mobilize resources like labour and land which would otherwise be idle, as well as provide capital.

But in a fully developed economy like Singapore, resources are not only fully employed, but stretched. In fact, the demand for land is so great, the resulting high rent is making many businesses uncompetitive, except locally where customers have no choice but to pay the high prices demanded, even if the products or services are subpar.

There is also not enough workers. To attract MNCs, the government has to allow them to employ foreigners, leading to overcrowding, social friction, high cost of living and the displacement of Singaporeans.

MNCs are not here to transfer know how and trade secrets to Singaporeans. They are here to maximize profits. If the government offers them very attractive incentives like low tax, assistance to relocate and train workers, guarantee them rights similar to local companies, help them enforce copyright and therefore profits, etc, they would come.

In exchange, they promise to create a certain number of jobs for locals. However, there are many ways to circumvent the promise. For example, they can bring in their own managers and specialists and encourage them to apply for PRs without having to give up their citizenship. Once approved, they become locals and count towards creating local employment.

If another country offer better incentives, these footloose MNCs will move on. Employees who have gotten PR-ship can drop the PR and move on with the company. What will Singapore gain in the long run?

We have had so many pharmaceutical MNCs here. Have we produced one world class pharmaceutical company? No, we have only produced a few small companies servicing the MNCs which will die a natural death when the MNCs move out.

IPhones are assembled in China by a Taiwanese contractor called Foxconn. The Chinese workers make a meager salary working in dehumanizing plants. Foxconn makes a decent profit but the bulk of it goes back to the shareholders of Apple. Even the raw materials are sourced from other countries. How does it benefit the host country in the long run?

To produce any world class company, even if it is a small, niche company, the entrepreneur has to be running the business himself, years on end, fine tuning and improving all the time, with a supportive home environment. He will never produce a world class company working for others. If Mr Chan thinks “capabilities will be acquired over time”, he is sorely mistaken. It will only be created if we are chasing our own dreams, day in, day out.

But it is an uphill task when rent and cost of living is so high and top talents prefer working for MNCs, GLCs and the government.

Since independence, our government has sought to attract MNCs because that’s the main thrust of its strategy. MNCs have helped us in our development when we were a developing economy. But we are now fully developed, and stretched. We would do better to nurture local companies than to attract even more MNCs to compete for finite and limited resources.

MNCs have their own interest, which is to maximize profits regardless of externalities to the host country, including jacking up cost of living, pollution, congestion and disrupting the locals’ way of life. When we are no longer attractive, they will move on, leaving us to pick up the pieces. At some point in time, we have to start chasing our own dreams, not that of others.

Singapore 'firing on all cylinders' to attract MNCs; capabilities can be acquired over time: Chan

By Gayle Goh
October 20th, 2020

Attracting global heavyweights remains a key prong of Singapore's strategy to create more jobs and keep the labour market tight, even where the Republic currently does not have all the capabilities required, said Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing on Monday.

In recent weeks, Thermo Fisher Scientific and Hyundai Motor Group unveiled major investment plans in Singapore. Thermo Fisher will set up a S$130 million biomedical facility to house two new sterile filling lines, to support the development and manufacture of therapies and vaccines. Hyundai will invest S$400 million in a new innovation centre to enhance automotive manufacturing processes and develop smart vehicles.

Citing these examples, Mr Chan reaffirmed the role of global "queen bee" companies in catalysing local industries, and benefiting the supporting ecosystem of small and medium enterprises. This is in addition to Singapore's efforts to foster startups and help companies expand abroad, as part of a multipronged strategy, he said.

Mr Chan was briefing reporters on the sidelines of a joint visit to semiconductor giant GlobalFoundries Singapore with Manpower Minister Josephine Teo. He noted that the electronics industry offers a bright spot amid the economic gloom.


As at September this year, the industry has already recorded S$5.7 billion of fixed assets investment and S$376 million of total business expenditure, and is expected to create about 1,100 jobs over the next three to five years, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

The manpower ministry's (MOM) tenth weekly jobs situation report was released the same day, and similarly highlighted the electronics industry as a lone bright spot for manufacturing jobs. In the second quarter of 2020, amid the largest contraction on record, the electronics industry managed to increase total employment by 1,000 locally. This was partly due to a demand surge for digital goods and services amid "circuit-breaker" travel restrictions, safe-distancing measures and remote working arrangements.

At the same time, MOM's report indicates friction in hiring Singaporeans for the roles available. According to the report, over 130 electronics companies have offered more than 2,800 jobs and training opportunities since April. Salaries range between S$1,800 (for technicians) and S$8,500 (for executives and managers). Yet, of the 2,800 opportunities identified, only about 220 individuals have been placed.

Mrs Teo described the low take-up rate as a "great pity". Companies were doing their best to reach out to workers, but jobseekers may not know that the industry is hiring, she said. They may also be deterred by the mistaken impression that a technical background is always required, she added, pointing to less technical roles such as in sales and business development.

"If the companies are not able to fill these positions, either they cannot grow as fast as they wish, or they will have to find some way of filling the positions - which will be a loss to Singaporeans," said Mrs Teo.

At the briefing, Mr Chan noted that Singapore had progressively built up its capabilities in the semiconductor industry, which now contributes about 7 per cent of GDP, up from less than 1 per cent in its nascent years. Over the decades, the industry has created many good job opportunities, he said, with some workers starting in basic job roles and later taking up more complex positions in engineering, R&D and design.

Mr Chan went on to emphasise that any current lack of capabilities should be no deterrence to bringing in new investments. "Never be afraid to go into particular industries, just because we don't yet have the skillsets," he said. "When economic agencies go around the world to attract investments, we ask ourselves which investments will best create jobs for this generation and the next generation of Singaporeans.

"If these good long-term investments - be it in semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, or an emerging industry like electric vehicles - are not here today, the next generation of good jobs will inevitably be lost to our competitors. And our next generation will end up having to work elsewhere rather than in Singapore," he added.

Singapore-China relations, 30 years on: can the 4G leaders hold their own, and will the US rock the boat? ~ 3 Oct 2020

焦点 | 王瑞杰:新中关系要与时俱进 加强合作 ~ 24 Sep 2020

Outlook for Asia bright despite worst recession in a century: DPM Heng Swee Keat ~ 15 Sep 2020


Temasek’s China exposure surpasses Singapore for first time ~ 8 Sep 2020

Singapore’s prime minister has a message for the US: Don’t choose China confrontation or Asia withdrawal ~ 28 Jul 2020
Lee Hsien Loong, the prime minister of Singapore, worries that Washington’s increasingly tense relationship with Beijing and domestic pressures to reduce its commitments abroad will force US policymakers to choose either a path of “colliding with China” or “deciding that you have no stake in the region and leave us to our own defenses.”


Analysing Singapore’s F-35B acquisition ~ 2 Apr 2020
In January 2019, the United States approved the sale of up to 12 Lockheed-Martin F-35B Lightning II fighter jets and related equipment and services to Singapore in a $2.75 billion deal. Singapore’s F-35 procurement thus affirms the robust long-standing defence ties between the city-state and Washington.

五角大楼:美国批准向新加坡出售总价27.5亿美元的12架F-35B歼击机 ~ 10 Jan 2020


The odd couple: Singapore's relations with China ~ 4 Dec 2019


美新续签防务协定,美可继续使用新加坡军事基地至2035年 ~ 24 Sep 2019


‘Significant and steady investments’ in defence required to keep Singapore’s future secure: Ng Eng Hen ~ 1 Mar 2019
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 25, 2020, 03:02:59 PM
中国又一家千亿集团—华晨汽车,昨天垮了! ~ 24 Oct 2020

又爆雷! 千亿东北国企 (华晨汽车) 出事: 10亿还不起 债券圈炸了 ~ 25 Oct 2020



Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 27, 2020, 08:17:28 AM

What does Kwek Leng Peck's resignation mean for CDL's share price?

CDL is trading at steep discount to NAV, but its ROEs have declined significantly over the past decade

By Ben Paul
Mon, Oct 26, 2020 - 5:50 am

City Developments (CDL) has lost about 8 per cent of its market value since revealing last week that there were bitter divisions within its board in relation to its investment in Chinese real estate firm Sincere Property Group (SPG) and its management of Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (M&C).

Its shares closed at S$7.04 on Friday, which is just over 0.6 times the company's net asset value (NAV) as at June 30 of S$11.66 per share. This is even lower than the trough price-to-book valuations at which the stock traded during the depths of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), which some analysts see as sufficient justification to remain invested.

Yet, CDL's investment fundamentals were quite different a decade ago. In particular, the company was generating much higher returns on equity (ROEs) than it is now.

CDL's ROE jumped sharply to 13.9 per cent in 2007, and then remained in double-digit territory for four more years, all the way through the turmoil of the GFC. Although the stock whipsawed during the crisis period, it was ultimately supported by an elevated level of profitability.

Things have changed since then. CDL's ROE slipped to 9.3 per cent in 2012, from 11.7 per cent in 2011. Its ROE subsequently trended lower and lower, to just 5.4 per cent in 2019.


One likely reason for CDL's falling ROE is that its core property development business has become much tougher over the years.

The government has displayed unwavering determination to stamp out any sign of speculative activity in the property sector. From late 2009 to early 2014, several rounds of "cooling measures" were rolled out in order to tame the market - including increasingly punitive stamp duties and caps on mortgage lending.

In 2018, following a surge in collective sale transactions, the government introduced yet another round of cooling measures, which drew howls of protest from property developers.

While it appears that private property sales are now headed into another upturn, it would probably be unwise for investors to bet that the property market will develop sufficient momentum to drive CDL's ROEs back to the double-digit levels of 2007-2011 without the government slamming on the brakes again.

If shares in CDL are to narrow their discount to book value, the company needs to find other ways to lift its profitability - perhaps by getting into new markets or generating better returns from its investment properties.

This is perhaps why the market has reacted so negatively to the revelation last week of disagreements within CDL's board about SPG and M&C.

Big bet on M&C, SPG

CDL took the London-listed M&C private last year, following a cash offer at 685 pence per share that valued the hotel company at £2.23 billion (S$3.95 billion). CDL already owned 65.2 per cent of M&C before the offer. CDL had previously attempted to take M&C private at 620 pence per share, but its offer was rebuffed by minority investors.

With M&C within its fold, CDL said in its most recent annual report that it plans to pursue initiatives to maximise shareholder value. "These include controlling and reducing operating costs acutely; leveraging the group's global network, resources and real estate capabilities to refurbish assets for enhanced growth - especially those with conference facilities; repositioning underperforming assets and exploring the development of unutilised land."

With the fallout from Covid-19, however, CDL's hotels business has been a major drag on its profitability this year.

For H1 2020, CDL reported a 32.8 per cent year-on-year decline in revenue to S$1,072.9 million. Its earnings for the half-year period came in at just S$3.1 million, versus S$362 million for H1 2019.

CDL reported pre-tax profit of S$13.8 million for H1 2020, down from S$490.3 million for the same period in 2019. The group's hotel operations recorded a pre-tax loss of S$208.2 million, which included S$33.9 million of impairment losses made in view of the pandemic.

It was also last year that CDL announced its initial plan to invest in SPG. In May 2019, CDL said it would stump up 5.5 billion yuan in equity and interest bearing loans to acquire a 24 per cent stake.

But CDL only went as far as extending a loan of 2.75 billion yuan to SPG before the deal was renegotiated.

CDL said in April that it had struck a new deal that would see it acquire a more than 51 per cent stake in SPG for an initial investment of 4.4 billion yuan, part of which will be used to repay the 2.75 billion yuan loan.

CDL will also be granted a call option to purchase an additional 9 per cent effective interest in SPG for 0.77 billion yuan.

CDL's stake in SPG will be held through an offshore holding company in which SPG's chairman and founder Wu Xu will retain a stake, giving him an effective 20 per cent interest in SPG.

This revised deal is based on an agreed valuation of 8.6 billion yuan for SPG, which is almost 50 per cent below SPG's unaudited NAV as at Dec 31 of 16.48 billion yuan.

Through SPG, CDL said it would gain a presence in 18 cities in China, a portfolio of 27 investment properties, a landbank of 9.2 million square metres of gross floor area, and access to SPG's talent pool of over 2,000 employees.

CDL did warn, however, that SPG faces near-term "challenges and uncertainties" caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Alternative plan?

Last week, CDL outlined the full extent of its current exposure to SPG. Besides the 51 per cent equity investment in SPG of 4.4 billion yuan, CDL had subscribed for US$230 million in bonds issued by SPG and extended a working capital loan of 650 million yuan.

CDL had also provided a liquidity support undertaking totalling 1.5 billion yuan relating to bonds issued by SPG that mature on Oct 26, 2020, and a 1.5 billion yuan corporate guarantee in relation to an external bank loan.

CDL calculates its total current exposure to SPG to be S$1.9 billion.

CDL said this continuing financial support for SPG and concerns about the management of M&C were among the reasons that Kwek Leng Peck had decided to resign from its board.

Mr Kwek's decision has potentially significant implications for ordinary shareholders of CDL. Firstly, he clearly has a great deal of knowledge and insight about CDL's business, having been a member of its board since 1987.

More importantly, he is a senior member of the family that ultimately controls CDL. He is a cousin of CDL's executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng, and an uncle of CDL's CEO Sherman Kwek. Even after his exit from the board, he could conceivably continue to influence its thinking on SPG and M&C.

Could CDL ultimately decide that it is on the wrong track with SPG and M&C? What else can it do to lift its sagging ROE? If there is no credible plan to improve its underlying profitability, what is CDL's future as a public-listed company? Should it liquidate some of its key assets and go private?

During the 10-year period up to end-2019, before Covid-19 emerged, shares in CDL delivered a total return of just over 11 per cent (with dividends reinvested). By comparison, the Straits Times Index delivered a total return of more than 54 per cent over the same period.

Unless CDL can confidently offer investors the prospect of significantly better returns that it has generated over the past decade, it seems unlikely that the steep discount to NAV at which its shares trade will narrow much.

CDL's top executives and independent directors could face a testing time in the weeks and months ahead as they engage the company's majority and minority shareholders on the appropriate way forward.

Why are developers buying land even during a downturn? ~ 29 May 2017
Singapore’s property prices may have declined for 14 quarters, but that isn’t deterring developers.
Developers have paid premiums of about 29% on land purchases, since tweaks to the cooling measures in March.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on October 29, 2020, 12:04:47 PM
IAS 40 Investment Property
The lion’s share of SPH's FY2020 loss arose from fair value losses in its property investments.
Under the fair value model, investment property is remeasured at the end of each reporting period.
Changes in fair value are recognised in profit or loss as they occur.


Dorm operator Centurion Corp gets a thumbs up from UOB Kay Hian ~ 22 Oct 2020
UOB Kay Hian initiate coverage on Centurion with a BUY, TP S$0.44 (+30.7%) from closing price of S$0.34 on 16 Oct 2020.

Student housing in the UK is no longer a ‘bullet-proof’ investment after the coronavirus crisis ~ 3 Jun 2020

SI research: Centurion Corporation – Bright prospect ahead

By Jimmy Ng
28 July 2017

Recently, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC reported a 20-year annualised real rate of return of 3.7 percent above global inflation on its portfolio for the period ended 31 March 2017, which dipped slightly from the four percent return last year.

Along with the released statement came some comments that the fund is prepared to take underperformance against relative benchmarks owing to current period of heightened uncertainty and low returns. Nonetheless, a key part of GIC’s investment in such a challenging environment would be to ensure that its portfolio remains robust with diversification across asset classes, regions, return drivers and risk thresholds.

Adding on to that, Lim Chow Kiat, GIC’s chief executive officer, pointed out that they see growth and opportunities investing into infrastructure as well as student-housing market. Now that caught our attention. According to data from Real Capital Analytics cited by Bloomberg showed, GIC and Mapletree Investments have pushed acquisitions in student housing to a record US$16.2 billion last year. This year, GIC together with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and The Scion Group jointly acquired three US student-housing portfolios for about US$1.6 billion.

With “smart money” illuminating the way and taking the lead, should we as smart investors follow suit? This issue, let us take a closer look at Centurion Corporation (Centurion), and explore what this leading provider of quality accommodation in Asia has got to offer us.

Company Profile

Starting out as an audio cassette tape manufacturer in 1981, Centurion (formerly known as SM Summit Holdings) has successfully diversified into the accommodation business to capture growth opportunities in this niche market following a reverse acquisition in 2011. Today, the group owns, develops and manages quality workers accommodation assets under the Westlite brand and student accommodation assets under the Dwell brand. As at March 2017, Centurion has a portfolio of 11 workers accommodation and 10 student accommodation in operation totaling 61,608 beds in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and the United Kingdom (UK).

According to Centurion’s FY16 annual report, the group’s core businesses in worker accommodation and student accommodation accounted for 71 percent and 27 percent of its FY16 revenue respectively. Geographically, the main bulk of the revenue was derived from Singapore at 70 percent followed by United Kingdom contributing 17 percent, while the rest is made up of Australia and Malaysia with each constituting seven and six percent respectively.


Strong Financial Results

Centurion’s financial results were nothing short of impressive. Over the last five years, the group’s revenue grew consistently at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.5 percent to $120.3 million in FY16, driven by the continual expansion of its workers and student accommodation businesses as well as an increasing portfolio size. Correspondingly, net profit from core business operations climbed at a CAGR of 30.5 percent to $38.6 million in FY16.


Centurion’s latest quarter results continued to display stable revenue and profit increments. For 1Q17, the group reported revenue of $36 million, which rose 25.6 percent. The double-digit growth was largely attributed to better performance of the group’s worker accommodation assets in Singapore, in particular the newer Westlite Woodlands and ASPRI-Westlite Papan. Most notably, revenue from the group’s student accommodation business was also significant with contributions from four newly acquired student accommodation assets in the UK. As a result, net profit jumped 14.5 percent to $10.7 million.

Strong Demand In Singapore

Despite the softer economy in FY16, all five worker accommodation assets which Centurion operates in Singapore enjoyed close to full occupancy rates during the year. Being one of the largest purpose-built workers accommodation (PBWA) owner-operators in Singapore and Malaysia, its established position in the sector allowed Centurion to ride along the tailwinds brought about by some of the favourable government policies. For instance, non-Malaysian manufacturing workers will no longer be allowed to rent out entire HDB flats with effect from 1 January 2017, making PBWA an alternative option for accommodation. Meanwhile, factory-converted dormitories are also facing increasingly stringent guidelines by the authorities.

With the Building and Construction Authority projecting the value of construction contracts to be awarded in 2017 to reach between $28 billion and $35 billion higher than preliminary estimate, which in turn translates to higher demand for foreign workers in Singapore. Over the short term, this bodes well for the sustainability of demand for worker accommodation contributing to Centurion’s performances.

Acquisitions To Drive Growth

Student accommodation has always been one of Centurion’s best performing and resilient segments even during global economic downturn, underpinned by the popularity of UK and Australia among international students seeking tertiary education with their number of top ranking universities, coupled with shortage of quality and well-managed purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) in the regions.

According to a Jones Lang LaSalle report published in November 2016, student accommodation database in Melbourne, Australia, reported a total of 234,844 full time students matched with an existing supply of only 19,188 beds.

Considering the healthy demand and undersupply of PBSA beds in Melbourne, Centurion has finalized its plans to develop a new accommodation block in RMIT Village which could increase an additional 160 beds. Meanwhile on 30 March 2017, the group has also entered into an agreement to acquire a development site in Adelaide for a 280-bed student accommodation expected to be completed in 2018. Given its proximity to major universities in Adelaide and limited pipeline of PBSA beds in that area, Centurion is confident of the future performance of its second asset in Australia.

Likewise, performances of Centurion’s eight PBSA assets in the UK are equally lustrous alongside their Australia’s counterparts. According to the Universities and Colleges Admissions Services, the 2016/2017 academic year saw an increase of 7,000 acceptances into UK universities from the previous year. As a result, the group’s student accommodation assets continued to perform well with an overall occupancy rate of approximately 96 percent.



As at 19 July 2017, Centurion is transacting at a market price of $0.50 per share, which represents a rather inexpensive valuation of price-to-earnings ratio at 12.3 times and a price-to-book ratio at 0.9 times. With a dividend payout of $0.02 in FY16, current price offers a decent yield of around four percent. Although the shares just had a run-up from $0.31 since December last year and is currently trading near its 52-week high, we reckon that there could be potential for further upside given its expanding portfolio as well as a stable business in a resilient sector.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 02, 2020, 04:45:18 PM
Fountains of Bellagio "My heart will go on"

Broker's take: S-Reits' exposure to Robinsons owner in spotlight as more brands may close

By Fiona Lam
Mon, Nov 02, 2020 - 2:10 pm

DBS Group Research on Monday noted that the fortunes of retail-focused Singapore-listed real estate investment trusts (S-Reits) are "closely tied" with that of beleaguered Robinsons Singapore's owner.

More brands under Dubai-based conglomerate Al-Futtaim, which owns the department-store operator that's now in liquidation, may also follow suit with closures, the research team wrote.

The Al-Futtaim group is larger than most might think - it's most of the biggest brand representatives in Singapore. Its brands in the city-state include household names such as Marks & Spencer, Zara and Mango.

Across its 23 brands in Singapore, Al-Futtaim has 111 retail outlets, and about half (56) of these stores are located in S-Reits' malls, DBS analysts Geraldine Wong, Derek Tan and Rachel Tan said in a note on Monday.

The exit of Robinsons may not be a one-off occurrence among Al-Futtaim's portfolio of brands, given the ongoing pressures due to capacity and travel limits, the analysts added.

Retail S-Reits with the largest exposure to the group by store count are CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) with 15 outlets, and Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) with 11, according to DBS.

CapitaLand also rents to nine Al-Futtaim brands in total, at its Jewel Changi Airport and Ion Orchard.

Likewise, owners of malls in the Orchard shopping belt - such as Starhill Global Reit with nine stores, Lendlease Global Commercial Reit with seven and Mapletree Commercial Trust's (MCT) VivoCity with eight - have close landlord-retailer relationships with the group, said DBS.


This comes as fashion retailers remain in consolidation mode. The shift to work-from-home practices amid the coronavirus pandemic has led to plunges in portfolio retail sales in fashion.

DBS thus believes most retail brands may look to rationalise their footprint in 2021, and will likely carefully review any shop closures on a store-by-store and brand-by-brand basis to maximise profitability.

"Over time, we believe that the dominant malls across Singapore will continue to attract tenants to maintain their occupancies in the longer term," the research team wrote.

It favours CMT, FCT and Lendlease Reit, which hold "dominant" malls with characteristics that allow them to attract tenants, keep occupancies higher than the rest of the industry, and thus navigate well past the evolving retail landscape.

Robinsons last Friday confirmed it is shuttering for good after more than a century in the business, weighed down by losses in recent years. Some 175 employees will be affected by the closure.

"While the timing came as a surprise to many, we note that department-store formats have been struggling for years, and the inability to establish an omni-channel presence has resulted in department stores rationalising their footprint over time," DBS wrote.

Putting further pressure on their revenues is the Covid-19 pandemic, which has led to restrictions on department stores from holding "atrium sales".

Following Robinsons' collapse, the spotlight is now also on S-Reits' department-store exposure, which ranges between 7 per cent and 21 per cent of gross revenues for Singapore.

Robinsons' department stores contributed about 7 per cent of revenues for CMT, although the Reit's merger with CapitaLand Commercial Trust is estimated to bring this exposure down to less than 2 per cent, DBS said.

Other department-store operators in the Republic include CK Tang Limited's Tangs, which is a tenant of MCT, and mainboard-listed Metro Holdings, which is a tenant of FCT and SPH Reit. Isetan Singapore has no exposure among S-Reits, although it is itself listed on the Singapore bourse.

Department stores usually stand as anchor tenants within malls, given the large percentage of net lettable area they lease. The exit of such anchor tenants may thus result in a "black hole" in shopping centres, DBS noted.

"Landlords may have to get creative with the extra plot of space with the option to either find another anchor tenant to take up the entire space, or divide the retail plot into smaller ones with rental upside potential and consider the overall positioning of the asset going forward," the analysts said.

Among DBS's stock picks, CMT - which will be renamed CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust on Tuesday - was trading at S$1.74 as at 1.29pm on Monday, up S$0.01 or 0.6 per cent.

FCT units fell S$0.01 or 0.5 per cent to trade at S$2.10, while Lendlease Reit dropped 0.5 Singapore cent or 0.8 per cent to 60.5 cents.

Robinsons Singapore to close after 162 years ~ 30 Oct 2020

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 04, 2020, 01:17:17 PM
MediShield Life may let Singaporeans claim up to $150,000 next year, but premiums go up by 35% ~ 30 Sep 2020

Koh Poh Koon’s response about MediShield Life’s actuarial reports could give the impression that Govt has something to hide ~ 4 Nov 2020

WP’s Gerald Giam urges govt to release full actuarial report on MediShield Life scheme ~ 3 Nov 2020

A very unhappy Singaporean

October 28th, 2020

I was told that in order to be entitled to claim from the Medishield Life Compulsory Government Scheme that I would have to stay for a complete day in the ward and so I did.

But as you can see from the invoice as I have attached, instead of deducting from the Medishield Life Scheme, the hospital chose to dig $450 from my Medisafe Saving instead.

The statement read:




So, it seems the preference is to dig from the Medisave saving until it dries up. There are so many hidden agenda and conditions that nobody, even the hospital doctor or nurse could reasonably understand how the scheme works, since I was actually advised by them.

So, I charge that either those deductibles are hidden as “Govt Grants” or the entire Medishield Life is but a USELESS PIECE OF HOAX. After paying so much money every year for the stupid scheme, there is ZERO pay-out, not helping the citizen in any way at all. This is entirely cannot be accepted.

Hence the Government must allow Singaporeans to withdraw from such fake and useless scheme. As the invoice had shown, Medishield Life provides ZERO help in time of need.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 07, 2020, 10:55:47 AM
Hong Kong supermarket chain Wellcome plans HK$80m giveback scheme to help needy amid Covid-19 pandemic ~ 28 Oct 2020
Wellcome, which is operated by Jardine Matheson through Dairy Farm, announced on Wednesday (Oct 28) 2m cash and meal vouchers would be distributed through more than 70 charities.

保就業計劃︱惠康母企獲批近4億元補貼擸最多 百佳獲1.61億元 ~ 22 Oct 2020

Retailers take large chunk of wage subsidies again ~ 22 Oct 2020
The parent company of Wellcome, Dairy Farm, is getting almost HK$400m.
ParknShop comes second in this current batch, getting HK$162m.
Third-placed Watsons Retail receives HK$71m.


Coronavirus: Hong Kong’s two largest supermarket chains to dish out cash coupons in exchange for wage subsidies, but critics say it is not enough ~ 22 Sep 2020
Wellcome will roll out HK$120m worth of sweeteners, while keeping the price of 300 daily necessities unchanged for 6 months.
ParknShop says it will offer HK$40m worth of food coupons to about 200,000 people including needy families, the elderly and disabled.

Wellcome among the employers taking part in second round of wage subsidies, as number of applicants drops by 57% ~ 14 Sep 2020
One of Hong Kong’s biggest supermarket chains, Wellcome, will participate in the latest round of HK$81 billion (US$10.3 billion) wage subsidies, conceding to government demands to offer discounts in return, the Post has learned, even as the total number of applications for the scheme dropped significantly. The upcoming batch of subsidies will be rolled out between September and November.

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 15, 2020, 11:30:40 AM
Vulture funds buy up bonds of China state-owned enterprises

Default of two industrial groups triggers plunge in prices of corporate debt

By Sun Yu
15 Nov 2020

Beijing -- Vulture funds are racing to purchase bonds of troubled Chinese language state-owned enterprises, after a pointy sell-off sparked by a big coal mining group’s default on a Rmb1bn ($156m) debt difficulty.

Singapore Airlines raises S$850 million through convertible bond issue ~ 13 Nov 2020
The five-year bonds will carry a coupon of 1.625%.
The offer was more than 4X oversubscribed "with strong investor interest".

SIA Group reports first half net loss of S$3.5 billion as passenger numbers fall by 98.9% amid COVID-19 ~ 6 Nov 2020

Gambling with other people’s money

Imagine a superb poker player who asks you for a loan to finance his nightly poker playing. For every $100 he gambles, he’s willing to put up $3 of his own money. He wants you to lend him the rest. You will not get a stake in his winning. Instead, he’ll give you a fixed rate of interest on your $97 loan.

The poker player likes this situation for two reasons. First, it minimizes his downside risk. He can only lose $3. Second, borrowing has a great effect on his investment — it gets leveraged. If his $100 bet ends up yielding $103, he has made a lot more than 3 percent — in fact, he has doubled his money. His $3 investment is now worth $6.

But why would you, the lender, play this game? It’s a pretty risky game for you. Suppose your friend starts out with a stake of $10,000 for the night, putting up $300 himself and borrowing $9,700 from you. If he loses anything more than 3 percent on the night, he can’t make good on your loan.

Not to worry — your friend is an extremely skilled and prudent poker player who knows when to hold ,em and when to fold ,em. He may lose a hand or two because poker is a game of chance, but by the end of the night, he’s always ahead. He always makes good on his debts to you. He has never had a losing evening. As a creditor of the poker player, this is all you care about. As long as he can make good on his debt, you’re fine. You care only about one thing — that he stays solvent so that he can repay his loan and you get your money back.

But the gambler cares about two things. Sure, he too wants to stay solvent. Insolvency wipes out his investment, which is always unpleasant — it’s bad for his reputation and hurts his chances of being able to use leverage in the future. But the gambler doesn’t just care about avoiding the downside. He also cares about the upside. As the lender, you don’t share in the upside; no matter how much money the gambler makes on his bets, you just get your promised amount of interest.

If there is a chance to win a lot of money, the gambler is willing to take a big risk. After all, his downside is small. He only has $3 at stake. To gain a really large pot of money, the gambler will take a chance on an inside straight.

As the lender of the bulk of his funds, you wouldn't want the gambler to take that chance. You know that when the leverage ratio — the ratio of borrowed funds to personal assets — is 32–1 ($9700 divided by $300), the gambler will take a lot more risk than you’d like. So you keep an eye on the gambler to make sure that he continues to be successful in his play.

But suppose the gambler becomes increasingly reckless. He begins to draw to an inside straight from time to time and pursue other high-risk strategies that require making very large bets that threaten his ability to make good on his promises to you. After all, it’s worth it to him. He’s not playing with very much of his own money. He is playing mostly with your money. How will you respond?

You might stop lending altogether, concerned that you will lose both your interest and your principal. Or you might look for ways to protect yourself. You might demand a higher rate of interest. You might ask the player to put up his own assets as collateral in case he is wiped out. You might impose a covenant that legally restricts the gambler’s behavior, barring him from drawing to an inside straight, for example.
Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on November 30, 2020, 03:46:13 PM
Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam still believes she did the right thing in trying to pass extradition bill ~ 30 Nov 2020

Hong Kong leader says she has 'piles of cash' at home| US sanctions leave her without a bank account ~ 28 Nov 2020


「珍言真語」程翔:逾40萬在港地下黨曝光在即 ~ 9 Oct 2020


US sanctions Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, police chief and 10 other top officials for ‘undermining autonomy’ ~ 7 Aug 2020
The move comes weeks after China imposed a controversial national security law on Hong Kong, which critics say threatens its freedoms.


China's uncertain future under an all-powerful Xi Jinping: An interview with Joseph Fewsmith ~ 23 Aug 2019
Given Xi Jinping's removal of the presidential limit in China, what are the long-term ramifications of China's transition from an institutionalized political system to a more personalistic one?

Title: Re: The other side of the coin
Post by: zuolun on December 05, 2020, 02:24:38 PM

Asia has beaten back each wave of COVID-19. But this surge could be different ~ 4 Dec 2020
COVID-19 cases are spiking across Asia once again. In South Korea, it’s the third peak in infections—the highest since the beginning of March. Hong Kong is experiencing its fourth COVID-19 wave. Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia all hit daily records at the end of November.

Malaysia reports 1,141 new COVID-19 cases, total at 70,236 with 376 deaths ~ 4 Dec 2020


Leaked documents reveal China severely underreported coronavirus cases as the pandemic spread ~ 1 Dec 2020

The Wuhan files ~ 1 Dec 2020
Leaked documents reveal China's mishandling of the early stages of Covid-19.

湖北機密文件曝光! CNN: 刻意低報瞞疫情 ~ 1 Dec 2020

新冠源头争议再起 湖北疫情初期文件曝光 ~ 1 Dec 2020
Chinese media are using the emergence of the G variant in Italy for propaganda. The coronavirus pandemic originated in China and the outbreak was possibly even concealed at the beginning.

德国知名病毒专家教授Kekulé: 全世界所有的新冠病毒均来自意大利北部 | 德国感染超100万! ~ 28 Nov 2020


锺南山预测:大马病例12月22日达到10万7689宗;待明年1月25日将攀升至18万7997宗 ~ 28 Nov 2020


研究显示:2019年夏天新冠病毒或已在意大利传播 ~ 16 Nov 2020