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Bursa Malaysia => Derivatives => Topic started by: vincent88 on June 24, 2014, 09:02:39 AM

Title: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 24, 2014, 09:02:39 AM
Ramadan, Unusually, Not Good News for Palm Oil Sellers

Usually the Muslim festival of Ramadan is preceded by higher demand for palm oil, the world’s most widely-used vegetable oil, but this year it is not happening, and soyoil is to blame.

During Ramadan, Muslims don’t eat or drink during daylight hours, but break their fasts after nightfall, with this usually contributing to higher palm oil use. Last year, when Ramadan started on July 9, in the three-week period June 1-20, palm oil exports from Malaysia, the world’s second-largest exporter, rose around 15%.


A worker loading harvested oil palm fruit into a wheelbarrow at the Bell Eco Power palm oil plantation in Batu Pahat, Johor, Malaysia, in March.—Bloomberg NewsThis year is different. Ramadan starts this weekend, but Malaysia’s June 1-20 exports are down between 5.8% and 8.6% on month-earlier levels and have been slowing since early May, cargo surveyors Intertek and SGS say. Traders blame a narrowing of palm oil’s price discount to rival edible oils, particularly soybean oil.

Citi Futures specialist Sterling Smith says the premium of soyoil to palm oil is around $127 a metric ton, below the one-year average of $132. Just two weeks ago on June 10, the differential was around $117/ton.

Palm oil prices rallied to an 18-month high in March 2014 due to very dry weather in major producing countries Indonesia and Malaysia, with this contributing to a narrowing in the premium, although the price of benchmark palm oil on the Bursa Malaysia has eased 17% since then. Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil prices meanwhile hit a fourth-month low in early June although they are now 5.1% higher year-to-date.

India, the world’s leading importer of palm oil, is a factor. From February to May in 2013, palm imports made up 80% or more of Indian edible oil imports, said Govindlal G. Patel, managing partner of G.G. Patel & Nikhil Research Co. This proportion dropped to 60%-65% from March to May 2014, he said, citing data from The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

There are around 177 million Muslims in India, third only in size to populations in Indonesia and Pakistan

“Traditionally, Indians use soft oils like groundnut or rapeseed for food. Palm oil is not grown in India and is primarily an import so when the price premium narrows, it encourages the consumptions of other oils,” said Mr. Patel.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts that India will import 8.3 million tons of palm oil the marketing year which started last October, unchanged from a year ago. China, ranked second, is expected to import 6.3 million tons, down from 6.6 million tons last year.

Indonesian palm oil exports rose 22% in May, after a sharp fall in April. The country, which together with Malaysia produces 85% of the world’s global palm oil, does not issue regular data for the commodity.

Industry publication Oil World says that in May Indian soybean oil and sunflower seed oil imports more than trebled and doubled respectively, compared with year-earlier levels, while imports of palm oil and palm kernel oil fell 17%.

The outlook isn’t very encouraging for palm oil exporters. Some market analysts expect higher prices ahead, lasting well into 2015, further crimping sales, due to dry weather expected in coming weeks and months brought by the El Nino weather system.

By
Huileng Tan
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 24, 2014, 01:43:47 PM
Economic slowdown, China palm oil imports may decline

According to a survey, China's imports of palm oil this year may be lower than they were a year ago about 11%, because of the economic slowdown, banks tighten imports of goods on credit. According to a Bloomberg News survey of 5 researchers and traders showed that in the 12 months ending on September 30, 2014, China imports may be reduced to 5.9 million tonnes of palm oil.       By contrast, United States Department of agriculture predicts 6.3 million tons of palm oil imports, China for two thousand thirteen-fourteenths, compared with 4.4%.       Only 7.4% Chinese gross domestic product growth in the first quarter, its slowest pace of growth since 2012. Chinese import demand may give Malaysia derivatives exchange (BMD) pressure on the crude palm oil futures prices.       So far this year, BMD crude palm oil futures has fallen by 8.2%, because of a slump in demand. Pledge of Chinese merchants had preferred to use Palm oil as a commodity, to obtain bank loans.       But that could change, because port of Qingdao metal warehouse receipt finance fraud investigation prompted the Bank to strengthen loan management. Analysts said palm oil is more for business purposes rather than household consumption, it is (China) slower economic growth is more sensitive.       With dwindling commodity financing, coupled with ample supply of soybeans, palm oil imports did not increase. On June 20, September crude palm oil futures on the BMD fell 0.2%, closed at 2442 ringgit per ton (about 757 million u.s. dollars). China's Dalian commodity exchange (DCE) of refined palm oil futures rose 0.6%, at 5938 Yuan/ton (954 million u.s. dollars).       So far this year, DCE volume was active in Palm oil futures fell 1.7%.       Analysts said the two thousand twelve-thirteenths annual imports reached 6.6 million tons of palm oil in China, hit a record high, partly due to January 1 this year, China implemented more stringent quality standards, import traders to rush in before it. Soybean import growth weakened Palm's market share. Customs figures show that during October 2013 to May 2014, China's soybean imports grew by 31%, which is equivalent to increasing the supply of about 2 million tons of soybean oil.

Source: Bo Yi Chih masters
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 24, 2014, 01:55:04 PM
2014/15 global supply was likely to tighten

Germany Hamburg weekly published by the trade publication oil world said 2014/15 marketing year (October 2014 to September 2015) during the relatively high chance of world palm oil supplies tight.       
Oil world, said due to the insufficient rainfall leading producers of palm oil, leading to increases in Palm oil production is below average, and yields may decline during the fourth quarter of this year. Oil world added that if the second half of this year, the El Nino phenomenon, adverse impact on production will be even greater.

Source: Bo Yi Chih masters (Translate from chinese words)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 25, 2014, 01:36:37 AM
Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2014 - New Report Available


New Food market report from Business Monitor International: "Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q3 2014"

 
[USPRwire, Mon Jun 23 2014] Strong growth prospects, opportunities for increased exports and government support will be the key factors driving growth in the Malaysian agribusiness sector. We see conditions being particularly favourable for sugar, poultry and cocoa production on the back of strong investment. However, we highlight that changing consumption patterns, disease outbreaks, sudden change s in policy and resources shortages could dent growth potential in the sector in the medium and longer term.

 Key Forecasts

 * Palm oil production growth to 2017/18: 9.3% to 21.1mn tonnes. Growth will be supported as companies replant mature estates and yields improve on the back of better technology.
 * Sugar consumption growth to 2018: 15.8% to 1.8mn tonnes. The dominance and continued expansionary activities of market players F&N, Permanis and Yeo Hiap Seng have fuelled considerable growth in the Malaysian soft drinks sector, a significant factor fuelling demand for sugar.
 * Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 13.4% to 1.5mn tonnes. More investment in the sector - as outlined in the 10th Malaysia Economic Plan - is expected to drive growth.
 * 2014 BMI universe agribusiness market value: 11.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase, to USD22.1bn (contributes to 8% of GDP)
 * 2014 real GDP growth: 4.5% (down from 4.7% expected in 2013, forecast to average 4.2% from 2014 to 2018).
 * 2014 consumer price inflation: 3.2% (up from 2.1% in 2013, forecast to average 2.5% from 2014 to 2018).
 * 2014 Central Bank policy rate: 3.0% eop (same as 2013, forecast to average 3.35% from 2013 to 2018).


 Key Developments

 Palm oil companies in Malaysia and Indonesia are starting to turn their back on the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), a non-profit organisation issuing the certificate that validates that the production of palm oil is sustainable. The programme appears as too constraining and...

 The Malaysia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

 BMI's Malaysia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

 * Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
 * Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
 * Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

 About Fast Market Research

 Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts, we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased, expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.  

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 25, 2014, 09:05:29 AM
Palm oil futures volatile flat, focusing on tomorrow's export data (25 June 2014)

On Tuesday Malaysia palm oil futures recovered earlier losses, briefly hitting a near one-month high, closing nearly flat.       
Crude oil prices fell, traders prior to the release of key export data transfer cartridge. Indicators in September, palm oil contract closed 0.1%, tonne 2,484 Myr (ringgit).       
Hitting a low of m $ 2,464 plate earlier in the contract, it recovered nearly a month high of m $ 2,492. ' Current market waits for tomorrow's export figures, ' Kuala Lumpur, a foreign brokerage firms, dealers said, ' today the market confined to rangebound, waiting for messages.       ' Cargo Societe Generale de Surveillance and investigation agency Intertek Testing Services will be announced on June 25 Malaysia June 1-25th palm oil export figures. ' Because the export figures tomorrow, buying from China slows, ' these traders say, ' tomorrow's export data, or earlier than (last week) as the air. ' Advancers 31,076, less than an average of 35,000.

Source: Reuters the Chinese website
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 25, 2014, 11:44:21 AM
MALAYSIA JUNE 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,126,927 (+3%) TONS: INTERTEK

Shipments rose 3% to 1,126,927 tons  from 1,093,703 tons in same period May, according to e-mailed  statement from Intertek.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 27, 2014, 12:02:13 AM
Palm prices to drop as Indonesia lags biodiesel targets-Mistry

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil prices could drop to between 2,300-2,500 ringgit per tonne over the next few weeks, missing an earlier forecast by about 13 percent given Indonesia's disappointing uptake of palm-based biodiesel, leading analyst Dorab Mistry said on Thursday.

Benchmark palm prices were initially expected to trade between 2,600 ringgit to 2,900 ringgit ($810-$900), or an average of 2,750 ringgit, over July to October in the absence of a crop damaging El Nino weather pattern.

"Why have palm oil prices disappointed? In a nutshell - the failure of Indonesia to live up to its commitment for use of palm biodiesel in transport fuels," Mistry said.

Government officials and analysts say Indonesia is set to miss its ambitious targets on biodiesel consumption this year due to logistical and infrastructure problems.

Mistry slashed his global biodiesel demand growth forecast by half to 1.5 million tonnes for the year to September.

"I believe Bursa Malaysia Derivatives futures on the third month should trade for the next few weeks in a range of 2,300 to 2,500 ringgit," Mistry said at a palm oil seminar in Mumbai.

While demand will be robust at the lower end, a rise to near 2,500 ringgit could curb interest and push up Malaysian stocks to a peak of 2.5 million tonnes by November, Mistry said, which would be the highest since January last year.

Palm prices, however, may rise to 2,600 ringgit if the current dry weather drags on beyond the next couple of weeks, and even hit 2,800 ringgit depending on the length and severity of El Nino, he added.

El Nino, the Spanish word for boy, is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that can cause floods in parts of the world but trigger droughts in other regions, including Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of Africa.

Benchmark Malaysian palm futures surged to a more than one-year peak of 2,916 ringgit in March as dryness scorched plantations across top producers Indonesia and Malaysia and on fears El Nino would develop from June or July.

Prices have slipped more than 15 percent since then to 2,471 ringgit as fears of an El Nino hurting crops have eased.

SUPPLY RISE

Production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will likely climb faster this year in the event of a moderate El Nino, said Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at India's Godrej Industries.

"If the El Nino turns out to be mild and delayed, as many weathermen are predicting of late, palm oil production will turn out to be better than my earlier estimates," he said.

Mistry raised his forecasts for Malaysia's output to between 19.7-19.9 million tonnes this year, from an earlier estimate of 19.5-19.7 million tonnes. He retained his outlook for Indonesia's production at 30.5 million tonnes.

While he kept his estimate for a 6.8 million tonnes increase in global oilseed supplies unchanged, he lowered his forecast for growth in global demand for edible oils to 5.0 million tonnes from 6.5 million tonnes for the year to September.

This would weigh on palm prices, which should take an additional hit if India - the world's top cooking oil importer - hikes duties on refined edible oil imports to protect its domestic oilseed processing industry.

"Perhaps around September we must expect the Indian government to raise the import duty on refined oils so as to put the beleaguered Indian refining industry and the Indian oleochemical industry on a level playing field," Mistry said.

Official sources told Reuters earlier this year that concerns over inflation would prevent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government from acting quickly on import duties and that a hike was unlikely before the budget in July.

Copyright Reuters, 2014
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 27, 2014, 12:18:23 AM
Palm Oil Exports from Indonesia Expected to Rise 15% in 2nd Half 2014


The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) expects that Indonesian exports of crude palm oil (CPO) and palm oil derivatives will increase between 10 and 15 percent to 11.29 million tons in the second half of 2014 from 9.82 million tons in the first half of this year. If achieved, then total CPO exports (and derivatives) from Southeast Asia’s largest economy in 2014 would be 21.11 million tons. Assuming an average CPO price of USD $895 per ton, these exports can be worth USD $18.89 billion in total.

Traditionally, exports of CPO rise in the second half of the year due to higher global demand amid several religious festivities (Ramadan, Idul Fitri and Christmas) as well as New Year. As such, CPO exports in the second half of the year usually account for roughly 70 percent of total CPO exports in a year.

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:



                                2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014¹
Production
(million metric tons)   16.8    19.2    19.4    21.8   23.5    26.5    26.0    26.5
Export
(million metric tons)    n.a     14.2    15.5    15.6   16.5    18.1    21.2    21.1
Export
(in USD billion)            n.a     15.6    10.0    16.4   20.2   21.6    19.0    18.9


¹ indicates forecast
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture

An official at Gapki said that Indonesian CPO exports have already started to grow in May 2014 after plunging considerably in the previous month. In April, only 1.38 million tons of CPO were exported. However, this recovered in May to 1.7 million tons (a 23 percentage point growth month-to-month) mainly due to higher demand from Muslim countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan (ahead of the holy fasting month of Ramadan). Gapki stated that demand for Indonesian CPO from these two countries surged 336 percent (mtm) in May although in terms of volume it remains modest compared to CPO exports to China or India.

Increased demand for Indonesian CPO in the second half of 2014 can grow further if a new El Nino cycle emerges later this year. Since March 2014, speculation about a new cycle spread. This weather phenomenon can result in CPO production rates to drop by 5 to 10 percent (thereby positively affecting the CPO price).

The performance of Indonesia’s CPO export sector is also affected by the country’s domestic CPO consumption, particularly in the context of the government’s biofuel program. The Indonesian government raised the mandatory amount of palm oil (fatty acid methyl ester) blended in biodiesel from 7.5 percent to 10 percent in 2013 (for power plants that use biodiesel, the mandatory amount has been raised to 20 percent). The Association of Indonesian Biofuel Producers (Aprobi) stated that the mandatory amount will increase further to 20 percent by the period 2016-2020. However, the biofuel program has not functioned optimally yet. This year, the program is expected to require about 2.5 million tons of CPO, an increase from 1 million ton in 2013. If the program will expand, then it will reduce CPO exports from Indonesia.   

In 2013, total CPO exports from Indonesia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of this commodity, stood at 21 million tons (or USD $19 billion). Most of Indonesian CPO is shipped to India, Eurozone, China, USA, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Indonesian CPO production in 2014 is estimated to reach 26 to 27 million tons. This is slightly lower than the initial forecast of 29 million tons but higher than last year’s realization of 26.0 million tons.


Indonesian Palm Oil Export 2014:

Period          Million Ton
January             1.57
February           1.58
March               1.79
April                 1.38
May                 1.70
June¹               1.80
Total                9.82


¹ indicates forecast
Source: Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki)


Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 27, 2014, 09:33:58 AM
VEGOILS-Palm oil ends lower as crude prices begin to ease

* Oil steady around $114 as Iraq exports in focus

* June 1-20 output seen unchanged from May - growers

* Indonesia cuts July palm export tax - minister

* India's 2014/15 edible oil imports seen up 5.4 pct

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, June 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures

ended lower on Thursday to snap a three-day winning streak as

crude oil prices began to ease, although losses were capped by

an uptick in exports and anticipation that hot weather would

trim palm output.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa

Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.5 percent to

2,471 ringgit ($768) per tonne by the day's close, reversing

gains in the morning session.

Total traded volume stood at 43,886 lots of 25 tonnes, much

higher than the average 35,000 lots.

"You can see that there's some fall in energy prices,

especially on the WTI side this afternoon," said a trader with a

foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

"This market has tried the 2,500 ringgit level twice, but it

did not manage to stay above that. If it attempts the third time

and still can't stay above 2,500 ringgit, then the market will

probably see some correction," the trader added.

Brent crude oil slipped 15 cents to $113.85 a barrel by 0825

GMT, having fallen in the past four sessions. Traders, however,

are watching developments in Iraq for the possibility of export

disruption from OPEC's second-largest producer.

Oil prices rose sharply after violence in Iraq spiked fears

of supply disruption, which in turn made palm oil a cheaper

option to produce biodiesel.

Technicals showed palm oil faces a resistance at 2,513-2,554

ringgit, while its support level is at 2,472-2,422 ringgit,

according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

But hot and dry weather in Malaysia this month could be an

early sign of the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern,

market participants said, keeping palm prices propped up.

"A lot of people see June production going up, but because

of the weather, it is not," another Kuala Lumpur-based trader

said.

"You can see that towards the end of the month, exports are

creeping up, and production is coming down. The market is

friendly based on these data."

Traders said the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of

growers, estimates palm output in the first twenty days of the

month to be relatively unchanged from May.

Short spells of dry weather would hinder growth and quality

of yields, while a prolonged drought could disrupt fruit

formation, affecting output six to seven months later.

Cargo surveyors on Wednesday reported that exports of

Malaysian palm oil products rose 0.4-3.0 percent during June

1-25 compared to the same period a month ago, the first sign of

improvement after recording weaker shipment volumes throughout

the month.

India's edible oil imports, including palm oil, may rise 5.4

percent to 11.7 million tonnes in 2014/15 as a weak monsoon

hurts domestic oilseeds production, Govindbhai Patel, a trade

expert from India's western city of Rajkot, said at a regional

palm oil conference in Mumbai on Thursday.

Bigger demand from the world's leading cooking oil importer

could support palm prices which have shed more than 7 percent so

far this year.

Indonesia, the world's top palm grower, lowered its export

tax for crude palm oil to 10.5 percent in July from 12 percent

in June, an industry official said on Thursday. Malaysia will

cut its own duty for July to a more competitive 5 percent from

5.5 percent a month ago.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract

rose 0.1 percent in late Asian trade, while the most

active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities

Exchange was nearly flat.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1030 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

MY PALM OIL JUL4 2493 -4.00 2493 2515 670

MY PALM OIL AUG4 2483 -8.00 2480 2509 1951

MY PALM OIL SEP4 2471 -12.00 2469 2502 23364

CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN5 6058 -18.00 6034 6076 254678

CHINA SOYOIL JAN5 7052 -2.00 7026 7062 310948

CBOT SOY OIL JUL4 40.68 +0.03 40.62 40.89 1961

NYMEX CRUDE AUG4 106.45 -0.05 106.35 106.81 14447

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.216 Malaysian ringgit)

($1 = 6.2251 Chinese yuan)

(Editing by Sunil Nair and Tom Pfeiffer)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 27, 2014, 09:46:16 AM
Rupiah Drop Spurs Mandiri Shift to Palm Producers

The Indonesian rupiah’s decline to a four-month low is encouraging the nation’s biggest domestic mutual-fund manager to shift money into palm-oil exporters at the expense of construction companies.

The currency has retreated 6.1 percent against the dollar this quarter, the most among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, and traded at the weakest level since February today. The last two times the rupiah depreciated at least this much in a quarter, the Jakarta Agricultural Index jumped an average 20 percent during the following three months.

PT Mandiri Manajemen Investasi is anticipating another rally this time as the combination of a weaker currency and rising palm oil prices improves the outlook for export earnings, according to Priyo Santoso, the Jakarta-based money manager’s chief investment officer. Builders are turning expensive after posting the biggest gain among nine industry groups in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index this year, he said.

“Commodity prices have bottomed already and construction stocks have gained significantly, so it is part of the rotation,”Santoso, who oversees the equivalent of $1.8 billion, said in an interview. “The commodity sector has been treated as a hedge for the strengthening of the dollar.”

The rupiah fell to 12,099 per dollar today amid concern the nation’s current-account deficit will widen after April showed the largest trade shortfall in nine months. It was at 11,360 per dollar at the end of March.

Overseas Sales
The retreat helped send the Jakarta Agricultural index to a fourth day of gains today, climbing 0.7 percent to the highest level in almost six weeks. A gauge of construction companies rose 0.3 percent.

PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology (SMAR), a unit of Indonesia’s biggest palm oil producer, earned 57 percent of its revenue from dollar-denominated exports in 2013. PT Astra Agro Lestari’s (AALI) average selling price in the first quarter for the world’s most-consumed edible oil climbed to 8,949 rupiah (74 U.S. cents) per kilo, from 6,464 rupiah a year earlier.

The Jakarta Agricultural Index jumped 17 percent in the first quarter of 2009 and gained 22 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 after the rupiah tumbled during the previous three months. The Jakarta Construction, Property & Real Estate Index fell both times.

For Arief Wana, a director at PT Ashmore Asset Management Indonesia, which oversees an equivalent of about $390 million in Indonesian assets, it’s too early to switch out of construction stocks because the next government will boost spending on infrastructure.

Presidential Election
Both of the nation’s leading contenders for president in the July 9 election, Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and former general Prabowo Subianto, have pledged to improve infrastructure in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. Widodo said he wants to build 2,000 kilometers (1,244 miles) of new roads, 10 seaports and 10 industrial zones. Prabowo pledged to spend 1,400 trillion rupiah in five years to build 3,000 kilometers of roads and 4,000 kilometers of railways, along with airports, seaports, power and telecommunication networks.

“These are the sectors that will enjoy multi-year growth,” Wana said by phone on June 24. “The next government will have to beef up infrastructure spending. It is too risky to shift your holdings based on the rupiah.”

The outlook for rising commodity prices makes agricultural exporters a better bet, Santoso said. Palm oil futures, which fell 18 percent from March 10 through June 11, have since rebounded more than 4 percent. Futures climbed to a four-week high in Kuala Lumpur yesterday on concern a prolonged period of dryness caused by the El Nino weather pattern may curb production.

“When El Nino comes into the equation, it would strengthen the argument to go for plantation stocks,” Santoso said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Harry Suhartono in Jakarta at hsuhartono@bloomberg.net
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 28, 2014, 10:13:27 PM
Palm Oil Seen Rallying Less by Mistry on El Nino Delay, Biofuel

Palm oil, the most-used cooking oil, may rally less than an earlier forecast as demand for biodiesel trails estimates and an El Nino starts later than expected, said Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International.

Futures may climb to 2,800 ringgit ($873) a metric ton by December if the weather event occurs from mid-August, Mistry said, scaling back his March 5 forecast for a run-up to as much as 3,500 ringgit. Palm may trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,500 ringgit in the next few weeks, temporarily reaching 2,600 ringgit if a dry period in Southeast Asia extends beyond the next two weeks, he said at a conference in Mumbai.

Prices in Kuala Lumpur have retreated from an 18-month high in March as rising output from Indonesia and Malaysia, the largest producers, add to record global cooking oil supplies. The failure of Indonesia and Malaysia to absorb additional quantities of biodiesel has disappointed palm oil prices, Mistry said on Thursday. Cheaper palm may help extend a decline in global food costs amid forecasts for the El Nino that often roils global agriculture markets.

“Production of palm oil has been better than expected since February,” Mistry said, according to prepared remarks. “If the El Nino turns out to be mild and delayed, as many weathermen are predicting of late, palm oil production will turn out to be better than my earlier estimates.”

Biggest producers

Indonesia may produce 30.5 million tons or more this year while Malaysia’s output will total 19.7 million to 19.9 million tons, more than the March forecast of as much as 19.7 million tons, said Mistry, who’s traded vegetable oils for more than three decades. The two Southeast Asian producers together account for about 86 percent of world supplies.

Futures traded 1.1 percent lower at 2,444 ringgit a ton by midday break on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives on Friday. Prices jumped to 2,916 ringgit on March 11, the highest level since September 2012. Mistry, who in November correctly forecast palm oil would trade from 2,600 ringgit to 2,900 ringgit through March, said his price outlook is based on the assumption that Brent crude oil trades in a range of $100-$120 a barrel.

“Prices will depend very much on the development and the severity of El Nino in the medium term,” Mistry said. “Palm has become far too dependent on biodiesel demand and that is an unreliable, opportunistic and sporadic market.”

El Nino alert

A moderate El Nino would reduce output by as much as 12 percent in Malaysia, according to IOI Corporation. An event as severe as the one in 1997-98 may cut production by as much as 15 percent, chief executive Lee Yeow Chor estimates. Goldman Sachs Group says disruptions associated with El Ninos have been most important for palm oil, coffee and sugar.

The event, caused by the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific, brings drought to the Asia-Pacific region and heavier-than-usual rains to South America. Australia remains on El Nino alert even as a slowing in Pacific Ocean warming may push back its onset to September, the Bureau of Meteorology said June 17.

There’s a 60 percent chance that an El Nino will set in by the end of August, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday. The probability of the phenomenon becoming established by the end of December rises to as high as 80 percent, the United Nations agency said in a statement.

‘Hot spots’

“El Nino may be delayed, but we’re already experiencing dry weather,” said Alvin Tai, an analyst at RHB Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur, who’s covered the plantations industry for 10 years.

“We are already seeing hot spots developing in Sumatra and West Malaysia, so that means rain has not been sufficient,” possibly hurting production later, he said.

The southwest monsoon, which started on May 15 and may last until September, will generally be a dry season for Malaysia, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department.

Palm’s rally in March, caused by a dry period in Southeast Asia in February, reduced its appeal as a feedstock for biodiesel and discouraged its use in Indonesia, Mistry said. The country’s use of palm biodiesel in the first five months of this year is roughly the same as in the same period a year earlier, and full-year consumption will not increase, he said.

“We are told this is due to a lack of infrastructure for blending and handling,” said Mistry. “While this may be one reason, the real reason could be the high price of CPO and the lack of competitiveness of biodiesel in 2014.”

Global food costs dropped 1.2 percent last month and are 3.2 percent lower than a year ago, according to a gauge of 55 food items tracked by the Rome-based Food & Agriculture Organization.

Bloomberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 28, 2014, 10:21:34 PM
Physical buyers to dominate trading in CPO futures

KUALA LUMPUR: Physical buyers are expected to dominate trading in crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives next week, with the prices to move between RM2,400 and RM2,550 per tonne.
Interband Group of Companies Senior Palm Oil Trader, Jim Teh, said demand would likely be lower next week amid high inventories in the two biggest producing countries -- Indonesia and Malaysia.
"High future prices will attract physical buyers as they tend to look for cheaper CPO prices," he told Bernama, citing stocks in Indonesia currently stood at more than three million tonnes while Malaysia hold about 1.8 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, Phillip Futures Sdn Bhd derivative product specialist, David Ng, said a stronger ringgit against the US dollar was also likely to put pressure on prices next week.
"However, the overall strength in crude oil futures and improved export demand may limit the downside," he said.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, July 2014 gained RM8 to RM2,468 per tonne,
August 2014 rose RM11 to RM2,462 per tonne, September 2014 added RM3 to RM2,445 per tonne while October 2014 was up RM6 to RM2,445 per tonne.
Weekly turnover decreased to 182,597 lots from 214,546 lots last week while open interest widened to 227,681 contracts from 221,583 contracts last Friday.
On the physical market, July South shed RM5 to RM2,495 per tonne.-- Bernama
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 28, 2014, 10:25:59 PM
Palm down for second day as crude cools, but set for third weekly gain

Benchmark prices shot up to a near one-month high of RM2,511 earlier this week, as violence in Iraq sparked fears of supply disruptions from Opec's second-largest producer, in turn making palm a more attractive option for biodiesel feedstock. This demand cooled off as crude prices eased later. Palm prices, however, are little changed from last week and are set for a third straight weekly gain with a 0.1% rise so far.  "The palm market went up along with higher crude oil. When that came down, our market also followed," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage, adding that overnight losses in soy markets also weighed on palm prices. By the midday break, the benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had inched down 1.1% to RM2,444 per tonne. Total traded volume stood at 15,609 lots of 25 tonnes, above the average 12,500 lots. Brent crude was unchanged at US$113.21 (RM363.18) a barrel by 0525 GMT (1.25pm MYT) after falling 79 cents in the previous session, and is heading for its biggest weekly loss since March as investors unwound positions on reduced concerns over exports from strife-torn Iraq. US crude was down a cent at US$105.83, and is set for a 1.4% weekly loss, the biggest in a month. Technicals showed palm oil's next target is RM2,422, although it faces a resistance at RM2,513-RM2,554, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Palm oil prices could drop to between RM2,300-RM2,500 per tonne over the next few weeks, missing an earlier forecast by about 13% given Indonesia's disappointing uptake of palm-based biodiesel, leading vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry said yesterday. Mistry added that while demand will be robust at the lower end of this range, a rise to near RM2,500 could curb interest and push up Malaysian palm stocks to a peak of 2.5 million tonnes by November. Stocks at end-May stood at 1.84 million tonnes. "Many people say that the price level now is on the higher side, and that it should go lower," the trader added. Another Kuala Lumpur-based commodities dealer said the easing palm prices would likely provide a weaker tone for next week.

Strength in the Malaysian currency today also stemmed buying interest from overseas investors and refiners. The ringgit rose as much as 0.4% to 3.2050 against the greenback today, its strongest since June 13, buoyed by expectations that Malaysia's central bank will raise interest rates next month. But the current hot and dry weather across Malaysia capped losses, keeping palm prices in a tight range between RM2,442-RM2,469. Short spells of dry weather can hinder growth of palm fruit. Some market players say the heat could be early signs of the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern which is slated to hit Southeast Asia later this year. In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract fell 0.2% in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.5%. – Reuters, June 27, 2014.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 30, 2014, 04:39:07 PM
(BFW) Malaysia 1-30 June Palm Oil Exports 1,391,942 Tons (+5.8%) Intertek

Shipments in June rose 5.8% from  1,315,952 tons in May
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 01, 2014, 11:03:52 PM
Signs of weakening of El Nino, United States weather conditions will restrict crude palm oil prices

Malaysia banks (Maybank), said Nino index weakened United States agricultural areas the weather is good, may restrict crude palm oil in the short term gains. Reported so far, according to some international meteorological model, the intensity of this year's El Nino phenomenon may be weak to moderate.       
And in recent weeks, earlier predicted will show signs of strong El Nino phenomenon has disappeared.       
Report notes that current United States corn and soybean yield prospects, corn seeding has been completed, but soybean planting is drawing to a close.       
But Iraq tensions, CPO prices constitutes indirect support, because the rise in crude oil prices of 10 dollars per barrel, crude palm oil price rose 235 ringgit a tonne.       
Report unless Iraq escalation of tension in May 2014, CPO prices will continue for the period August per ton fluctuating between RM 2400 and 2600 ringgit, because consensus is ample supply of oilseeds.       
Currently listing South American soybeans are harvested, while United States soybean acreage data figures released by the Government this year hit a record high.  Reported years, CPO prices tend to decline this year, as crude palm oil production is expected to increase in the second half. (Bo Yi Chih masters)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 02, 2014, 09:43:16 AM
Weak soy, fears of rising stocks drags palm to near 3-week low

Malaysian palm oil futures slid to a near three-week low today, stretching its losing streak into a fourth session following heavy losses in overseas soyoil markets, and as investors fretted about rising stocks of the tropical oil.

Soybean prices fell to near four-month lows after the US Department of Agriculture surprised the market with projections for bigger stockpiles and record production late yesterday.

Usda reported June 1 soybean stocks at 405 million bushels, above market estimates of 378 million, and forecast soybean plantings up 11% on year to a record high 84.8 million acres.

Bigger supplies of soybeans for crushing would weaken soyoil prices and narrow its premium over palm oil, which could prompt price-sensitive buyers to switch to rival edible oil instead.

"The major factor is the weakness in soybean oil, due to record high planting acreage, which was confirmed by the recent Usda report. That is the main reason why palm prices fell sharply today and is still maintaining at the low," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage.

Plantation analysts at RHB Research Institute said in a note today that the fall in soybean and soybean oil prices will likely put pressure on palm oil prices in the immediate term.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell to a June 12 low of RM2,385 in early trade, before settling at RM2,387 per tonne by the midday break, a 1.6% drop.

Total traded volume stood at 20,167 lots of 25 tonnes, nearly double the average 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to slide more to RM2,341 per tonne, as it has broken below a support at RM2,422, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Malaysian palm prices fell nearly 8% in the second-quarter this year to record its biggest quarterly loss since September 2012, weighed by poor export demand, a strong ringgit, and rising inventory levels.

Market participants said the prospects of bigger stockpiles in Malaysia, which have grown continuously since March to stand at 1.84 million tonnes at end-May, will likely continue to pressure prices despite a small pick up in export demand.

"There's the fear of rising palm stocks," the Kuala Lumpur-based trader added. "The recent better exports is not going to stop stocks from rising above two million tonnes in 2-3 months time."

Cargo surveyors on Monday reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil product rose between 4.6-5.8% in June compared to a month ago, thanks to firm demand from India and China.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange plunged 2.8% in early Asian trade, while the US soyoil contract edged up 0.5%.

In other markets, Brent futures held above US$112 (RM359.30) a barrel today as investor attention shifted back to demand after China's factory growth rose to a six-month high, adding to signs the economy of the world's second-biggest oil consumer is regaining strength. – Reuters, July 1, 2014.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 02, 2014, 11:42:10 PM
Palm snaps 4-day losing streak on short-covering, higher supply weighs

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, reversing losses early in session to snap a four-day losing streak on short-covering by traders after prices fell to near three-week lows, although concerns of rising edible oil supplies capped gains.

Prices slid on Tuesday to a June 12 low of 2,385 ringgit, following overseas soy markets that plunged after the US Department of Agriculture surprised traders with projections for bigger stocks and record production of the oilseed.

"There was a bit of intraday short-covering," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The unusual movement in yesterday's session when prices went up from 2,405 ringgit to 2,424 ringgit in the last 10 minutes of trade is also keeping players on the cautious side," the trader added.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 0.3 percent at 2,425 ringgit ($757) per tonne, with prices range-bound between 2,405-2,436 ringgit.

Trading volumes were thin at only 27,522 lots of 25 tonnes compared with the daily average of 35,000 lots.

"The palm market is very lethargic. There's minimum movement in overseas soybean oils, so there's minimum impact on our market today," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Palm typically tracks soyoil, a rival food and fuel substitute.

The most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange rose 0.2 percent in late Asian trade, while the US soyoil contract was up 0.3 percent.

Technicals were bearish. Malaysian palm oil is expected to revisit its July 1 low of 2,385 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Prospects of bigger stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's second-largest oil palm grower, also pressured the market, although some analysts said biodiesel demand will likely underpin prices going forward.

"While we do expect June palm oil inventory to gain 5 percent to 1.93 million metric tonnes, the downside in CPO prices should be limited to 2,350 ringgit per tonne as this is the level where we expect biodiesel producers in Indonesia to be profitable," said Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Alan Lim.

"This should naturally spur discretionary demand in Indonesia and prevent further fall in CPO prices," Lim said in a note on Wednesday.

Malaysian palm stocks have grown continuously since March to stand at 1.84 million tonnes at end-May.

In other markets, oil fell towards $111 a barrel on Wednesday, its lowest in almost three weeks, on a possible substantial recovery in Libyan exports after rebels said they would reopen two oil terminals.

Copyright Reuters, 2014
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 03, 2014, 02:23:03 PM
Global palm oil exports in the first half of this year fell by 1.6 million tons

 Germany Hamburg the trade publication oil world report shows that world palm oil exports fell in the first half of this year, this is the first time in many years, because palm oil prices weakened, boost demand for sunflower oil and soybean oil.       

Oil world says 2014 from 1 June, exports of palm oil in the world fell by 1.6 million tons over the previous year; in contrast, palm oil exports rose to 31% from a year earlier. the past five years, exports increased by an average of 1.2 million tons in the same period.       

Oil world said that the EU is unique to Malaysia and Indonesia oil palm areas of increased demand, because the European Union needs more palm oil for biodiesel production.   But oil world said that because palm oil inventories in importing countries has fallen sharply, as this means that demand will increase in the coming months. (Master of Bo Yi Chih)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 03, 2014, 02:28:49 PM
Second half of 2014 Indonesian palm oil exports rose 15%

According to the Indonesian palm oil Association (Gapki) said the 2014 exports of Indonesia's crude palm oil and its derivatives in the second half than in the first half of 9.82 million tons to 15%, reached 11.29 million tons. If this prediction becomes a reality in 2014, total exports of Indonesia's crude palm oil and its derivatives to 21.11 million tons.       

According to 895 USD/ton average price calculations, 2014 Indonesian palm oil exports will amount to $ 18.89 billion. Under normal circumstances, CPO prices will rise in the second half, holiday approaching, the increase in global demand.       

Crude palm oil exports in the second half usually account for annual exports of around 70%. Gapki, officials said, although the sharp drop in exports in April, but in May Indonesia's CPO export has begun to improve. In April exported only 1.38 million tons of crude palm oil in Indonesia. But May increase to 1.7 million tons, and rose 23%, mainly due to demand in countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan.       

May, Bangladesh and Pakistan, substantial growth in demand for Indonesian palm oil 336%, but with China or India than, its export volume is still low. Later this year the El Nino phenomenon, then the second half of 2014 Indonesia's CPO export demand will further increase. Since March 2014, the market has been speculation that El Nino phenomenon this year.       

El Nino phenomenon may lead to reduced output of crude palm oil 5dao10%, the CPO prices are good. Indonesia's CPO export industries are also performing under the influence of domestic crude palm oil consumption, especially the Government's biofuel projects. Indonesian Government by 2013 palm oil biodiesel-blended rate rose from 7.5% to 10% (for power plants, the proportion had increased to 20%). The Indonesian biofuel producers Association (Aprobi) said that by 2016 to 2020, bio-diesel blended rate will increase further to 20%. biofuel projects has not been well implemented. The project will need about 2.5 million tons of CPO this year, up from 1 million tonnes in 2013.       

If the project continues to improve the mixing rate, then this will reduce Indonesia's CPO exports. 2013 Indonesia's CPO exports to 21 million tonnes, worth about $ 19 billion.       Most of Indonesia's CPO exports to India, Europe, China, the United States, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.   2014 Indonesian CPO output may reach 2600 to 27 million tonnes, slightly less than the earlier estimate of 29 million tons, but higher than the 26 million tons last year. (Bo Yi Chih masters)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 05, 2014, 08:27:06 AM
Palm oil futures fell, creating the largest weekly loss in five weeks

  On Friday Malaysia palm oil futures fell, and registered the biggest weekly loss in five weeks, for Myr (ringgit), highest in more than seven months, buying interest was inhibited.     

Malaysia ringgit rose up to 0.6% to 3.1790, the strongest level since November 20. Local commodities brokerage firm, dealers said, "by the stronger ringgit, and passed on the market palm oil supply crunch in the near future, we expect that will change in the future of both up & down, a unclear direction.     

"The index in September, palm oil futures closed down 0.9%, 2,402 ringgit per ton, 6th trading day loss out from 7th trading day.   -1.8% palm oil prices this week, the largest weekly loss in five weeks.     

Trading volume was 29,083, below-average of 35,000.  Reuters poll of plantations, traders and analysts survey, expected in late June Malaysia palm oil inventories fell 2.2% to 1.8 million tons due to overseas sales speed and dry weather limit production.

(Chinese Reuters net)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 05, 2014, 09:11:04 AM
Exports improved production cuts June palm oil stock bears

(Kuala Lumpur, 4th) with Palm-oil exports are expected to improve, and arid climate affect yield, next Thursday (10th) upcoming June palm oil stocks data, expected to be dropped for the first time in 4 months, May reduce the level of 2.2% to 1.8 million tonnes.  To 7, Reuters Trader, plantation companies and analysts, according to the median forecast, due June palm oil exports is expected to grow on a monthly 3.2% to 1.45 million tonnes, with Palm oil production, is expected by month-0.4% slightly to 1.65 million metric tons and palm oil inventory data is expected to appear in 4 months back for the first time. Palm oil inventory data are key factors affecting the original palm-oil prices, and so if this prediction comes true, I believe will be available for the original palm-oil prices this year has fallen by 10% give a hand.

Recovery not as expected

Planting staff member, who did not want to be named said that due to the dry climate impact, up to now, the dome of the company's output is not satisfactory, and therefore believe that the dome of the other will not be spared.  In this case, June Brown believes will be a monthly oil production declines.  Original palm-oil prices weakening, mainly because of the recovery in exports is far worse than expected, Malaysia's palm oil exports for the first 5 months of this year to 6.64 million tonnes, 11% less than a year earlier.  In any case, the container Survey Agency data show June exports of palm oil 5% to 6% higher than in May, mainly due to China and India demand-led.  On local demands, told the Reuters survey predicted that due to the Muslim community, more palm oil will be consumed in front of the holy month of Ramadan, so that June palm oil consumption in China is expected to 280,935 tonnes, up from 150,000 to 180,000 tonnes, the average interval.  However, a line of CIMB futures trader alert, although showing signs of rain weather, but fasting month or will affect the harvest, as well as the number of plantation companies, which impact yield. Ramadan comes once, palm oil production is expected to be further restricted.  Another key factor in the potential impact of palm oil production, it is still closely following the El Nino (El Nino). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) current forecast in July, has a 60% chance El Nino occurred between May and August, and from October to December with odds of 75% to 80%.

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 06, 2014, 09:47:43 PM
VEGOILS-Palm drops on strong ringgit, records biggest weekly loss in five

* Prices down 1.8 pct this week, biggest drop in 5 weeks

* Malaysian ringgit rises to highest in more than 7 mths

* Malaysia's June palm stocks set for first drop in 4 months

- Reuters poll

* Palm oil to revisit low of 2,385 ringgit - technicals

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, July 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures

edged down on Friday and recorded their biggest weekly drop in

five, with buying interest curbed as the ringgit hit its highest

in more than seven months.

The Malaysian ringgit gained as much as 0.6 percent

to 3.1790 per dollar on Friday, its strongest since Nov. 20,

making the ringgit-priced feedstock more expensive for overseas

investors and refiners.

"We predict a mixed and uncertain direction due the strong

ringgit and talk of tight palm supplies for the nearby period,"

said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa

Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.9 percent to

2,402 ringgit ($754) per tonne by Friday's close, notching its

sixth day of decline in seven.

Palm prices have lost 1.8 percent this week, marking their

biggest weekly drop in five.

Total traded volume stood at 29,083 lots of 25 tonnes, below

the average 35,000 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to

revisit its July 1 low of 2,385 ringgit per tonne, as it has

completed a rebound from this level, said Reuters market analyst

Wang Tao.

A Reuters survey of planters, traders and analysts showed

that Malaysia's June palm oil stocks are set fall 2.2 percent to

1.80 million tonnes at end-June, their first drop in four

months, due to a pickup in overseas sales and as dry weather

curbed output.

Market players are looking to monthly industry data due next

Thursday on Malaysia's palm oil stocks, output and exports in

June to gauge supply and global demand for the tropical oil.

In other markets, Brent futures held steady above $111 a

barrel on Friday on signs of an improving demand outlook,

although the benchmark is still set to post its biggest weekly

loss since early January as supply worries that have rattled oil

markets for weeks recede.



In other competing vegetable oil markets, the most active

soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange

shed 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The U.S. soyoil contract

is closed for a holiday.



Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1008 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

MY PALM OIL JUL4 2458 -11.00 2450 2460 268

MY PALM OIL AUG4 2420 -21.00 2420 2451 600

MY PALM OIL SEP4 2402 -22.00 2399 2433 10838

CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN5 5792 -10.00 5782 5814 203766

CHINA SOYOIL JAN5 6726 -44.00 6724 6782 213012

CBOT SOY OIL DEC4 38.77 -0.01 38.56 39.05 28764

NYMEX CRUDE AUG4 103.83 -0.23 103.81 104.13 8979

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.1845 Malaysian ringgit)

($1 = 6.2043 Chinese yuan)

(Editing by Joseph Radford and Gopakumar Warrier)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 07, 2014, 02:25:34 PM
Palm Inventories in Malaysia Jump for Fourth Month on Production

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the biggest supplier after Indonesia, probably climbed for a fourth month as output rose to the highest level for June since 2011.

Reserves increased to 1.86 million metric tons from 1.84 million tons in May and 1.65 million tons a year earlier, according to the median of seven estimates from planters, analysts and traders compiled by Bloomberg. Production was 1.66 million tons, the survey showed. That’s the highest for June since 1.75 million tons three years ago, according to the Palm Oil Board. The board releases the data on July 10.

Futures tumbled 18 percent since reaching an 18-month high in March as production expanded and demand in food and biofuel trailed estimates. Record US output of soybeans, crushed to make an alternative oil, is adding to global cooking oil supply this year. Retreating prices may extend a third monthly decline in global food costs as measured by the United Nations.

“Exports this year are quite bad and production seems to be very good in the first half, so the market is reflecting those fundamentals,” said David Ng, a Kuala Lumpur-based derivatives specialist at Phillip Futures. “As long as inventory remains below the 2 million-ton mark, we still can see a bit of support for the market.”

Futures fell 0.9 percent to 2,402 ringgit ($755) a ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur on Friday. Prices tumbled to an eight-month low of 2,362 ringgit on June 12 after reaching 2,916 ringgit on March 11, the highest level since September 2012.

Exports shrink

Shipments from Malaysia fell 8.5 percent to 8.1 million tons in the first half, while output increased 9.1 percent to 9.15 million tons, according to Bloomberg calculations based on board data and the survey estimates. In June, exports rose 3.2 percent from the previous month to 1.45 million tons, the highest since December, the survey showed. Shipments climbed 5.8 percent to 1.39 million tons, surveyor Intertek said.

Production may be unchanged or slightly lower this month as plantation workers tend to be less productive in the fasting month of Ramadan and many take leave for the Eid celebration, Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank, said by phone.

Palm oil may trade between 2,350 ringgit and 2,600 ringgit this month depending on the progress of soybean planting in the US and crude oil prices, she said.

Mistry forecast

About 84.8 million acres will be sown with soybeans, the most ever and up 11 percent from last year, the US Department of Agriculture said on June 30. Soybean futures slumped to the lowest since December 2011 this month. Crude oil rose in June as violence in Iraq escalated, boosting demand for biofuels.

Palm may rally less than earlier forecast as demand misses estimates and an El Nino starts later than expected, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International. Futures may climb to 2,800 ringgit by December if the weather event occurs from mid-August, Mistry said on June 26, cutting his March 5 forecast for a run-up to as much as 3,500 ringgit.

Weaker production may be seen in Malaysia in the fourth quarter due to a prolonged dry spell in the first three months of the year, according to Rabobank International. Parts of some growing areas in Malaysia and Indonesia got less than 50 millimeters of rain in January and February, the driest spell since 1997, according to MDA Weather Services.

Demand may remain weak as top buyers India and China opt for more soybean oil as the spread between the two edible oils narrows, said Ng of Phillip Futures. The spread was about $98 on July 4 compared with an average of $244 in 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bloomberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 07, 2014, 02:30:09 PM
Fitch: CPO Price to Rise Only Modestly Despite El Nino, Iraq

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)JAKARTA/SYDNEY/SINGAPORE, July 07 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings saysthat the global crude palm oil (CPO) price will increase only modestly despitethe likely onset of the El Nino weather pattern this year and recent militaryaction at Iraq. Fitch expects the narrowing price spread between CPO and soybeanoil and the lack of growth in demand for biodiesel in Indonesia to restrainupward trends in CPO prices. The El Nino weather pattern brings extreme heat and drought,which will negatively impact production volumes and could raise averageselling prices for CPO. Meanwhile, recent military action in Iraq and concernsabout disruptions to oil field operations in the country put upward pressure on crudeoil prices, although supply concerns have since receded. Given the highcorrelation between CPO and crude oil prices, this could drive up CPO prices. Climatologists estimate that an El Nino pattern may develop bySeptember, a little later than the initial estimate for July-August. BetweenJanuary and May 2014, average CPO prices increased by 5% from a year earlier,partly reflecting market anticipation of the El Nino pattern. Historically, asevere El Nino would result in a 10%-15% drop in CPO production volume, and a 30%-40%increase in average selling prices.However, the upward pressures would likely be countered by thenarrowing of the gap between the prices of soybean oil and CPO. Soybean oil is asubstitute for CPO and a good harvest in major producer the US, which isforecast to export 1.75bn pounds of soybean oil in 2014, has pushed the price ofsoybean oil down, shrinking the premium over CPO prices to an average of USD91/ton in January-May 2014 from USD 244/ton in 2013, according to data compiled byBloomberg. This has encouraged higher consumption of soybean oil at the expense ofCPO. For example, Indian soybean oil imports in May trebled from a year earlierwhile the country's imports of palm oil products fell by 17%, according toOil World, an industry data provider. In addition, Indonesia's demand for CPO for blending intobiodiesel has not increased so far in 2014 compared with 2013. Althoughregulations requiring the use of palm oil in biodiesel are positive for the Indonesian CPOindustry in the long term, the blending of CPO into biodiesel is hampered in theshort term by underdeveloped distribution infrastructure and the high cost ofCPO. As a result, higher CPO stocks are also weighing on selling prices. In Fitch's view, an average CPO price of about USD800/ton(benchmark Belawan price at end-May 2014: USD848/ton) would reflect supply anddemand fundamentals. Given the nature of oil palm plantations, a significant increasein supply over the next 24 months is unlikely. Similarly, a sharp rise indemand from the largest consumers, such as China, India, and Indonesia, is notanticipated. Contacts:Erlin SalimAssociate Director+62 21 2988 6811Nandini VijayaraghavanDirector+65 6796 7216 Vicky MelbourneSenior DirectorHead of Industrials South East Asia & Australasia Ratings+61 2 8256 0325Media Relations: Leslie Tan, Singapore, Tel: +65 67 96 7234,Email: leslie.tan@fitchratings.com.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: Ļaughing Ģor on July 07, 2014, 02:39:51 PM
Cpo price set to fall?
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 07, 2014, 04:46:45 PM
Cpo price set to fall?

The CPO lowest price on 26 Jul 2013 is 2137 . If the history is repeated and we may find the CPO bottom by end Jul 2014.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 08, 2014, 10:12:06 AM
Palm edges up, investors eye smaller stockpiles

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Monday on hopes that stocks in the world's No.2 grower would fall for the first time in four months, although investor caution ahead of an official industry report trapped prices in a tight range.

A median forecast of planters, traders and analysts pegged Malaysia's June ending stocks at 1.8 million tonnes, a 2.2-percent drop from a month ago, which would mark the first fall in inventories since March.

The official report on Malaysia's end-June palm stocks, production and exports will be released by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Thursday.

"The market is looking for a new lead, that's why the trading range is quite tight," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "They (investors) are waiting for more news."

Another Kuala Lumpur-based trader said prices could weaken and test 2,390 ringgit, but would likely rebound.

"Prices are in consolidation mode and are currently testing support at 2,390-2,400 ringgit," the second trader said. "Talk of tight palm supplies for July and projections for a bullish MPOB may slow the fall."

By the midday break, the benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged up 0.1 percent to 2,404 ringgit ($755) per tonne, with prices stuck between 2,397-2,418 ringgit.

Total traded volume stood at 14,231 lots of 25 tonnes, just above the average 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to test its July 1 trough of 2,385 ringgit per tonne, a break below which will lead to a further loss towards the June 12 low of 2,362 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Global palm prices will only increase "modestly" despite the possible onset of an El Nino weather pattern and the recent military violence in Iraq, said Fitch Ratings, as palm's narrowing spread to rival soyoil and sluggish biodiesel uptake by Indonesia weighs.

"In Fitch's view, an average CPO price of about $800 per tonne would reflect supply and demand fundamentals," the ratings agency said in a statement, adding that the tropical oil's supply is unlikely to record a significant increase over the next two years.

In other markets, Brent crude hit a more than three-week low near $111 a barrel on Monday amid expectations of a rise in supplies as Libya gears up to resume oil exports from two ports that have been closed for nearly a year.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 0.7 percent in early Asian trade. Trading in the US soyoil contract closed for a public holiday on Friday.

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 08, 2014, 10:18:08 AM
Palm oil to test resistance, slip

July 7, 2014:   Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended marginally higher on Monday ahead of the official MPOB report due on Thursday. Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency, says that the global crude palm oil price will increase only modestly despite the likely onset of the El Nino weather pattern this year and current unrest in Iraq. Fitch expects the narrowing price spread between palm oil and soyabean oil and the lack of growth in demand for biodiesel in Indonesia to weigh on edible oil prices.

CPO active month September futures are moving perfectly in line with our expectations. As mentioned in the previous update, supports are seen at MYR 2,410-20/tonne levels and we expect prices to hold in the zone for a revival in the uptrend again. Only a move below 2,375 could hint at weakness again, possibly targeting 2,250 on the downside. However, expect prices to find support above 2,400 levels and then gradually break above key resistance at MYR 2,512 targeting 2,700 levels on the upside. The trend looks still weak in the bigger picture but minor gains are likely. Prices could move up towards MYR 2,445-55/tonne levels or even higher to MYR 2,485 while 2,375 holds in the coming week.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to 2,575-2,600 materialised. Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target at 2,350 levels now.

RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold. It is also indicating a positive divergence, where prices are making lower lows not confirmed by lower lows in the indicator. The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearish reversal. Only a crossover again above the zero line could at resumption in the bullish trend.Therefore, look for palm oil futures to move higher initially towards resistances and then fall again.

Supports are at MYR 2,400, 2,375 and 2,300. Resistances are at MYR 2,445, 2,485 and 2,515.

(The author is the Director of Commtrendz Research and also in the advisory panel of Commodity exchanges and corporate houses. The views expressed in this column are his own. This analysis is based on the historical price movements and there is risk of loss in trading)

(This article was published on July 7, 2014)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 09, 2014, 09:14:12 AM
Palm oil falls as ringgit hits 7 month high

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Tuesday as buying interest dried up after the ringgit currency surged to a more than seven-month high, while caution ahead of a key stocks report kept investors on the sidelines.

The Malaysian ringgit led gains among emerging Asian currencies and rose as much as 0.4 percent to 3.1760 per dollar, its strongest since Nov. 20, on expectations of a policy rate hike on Thursday.

"The market is down on the back of the ringgit strengthening to 3.17," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

A stronger local currency makes the ringgit-denominated feedstock more expensive for overseas investors and refiners.

Market participants are waiting for an official report on Malaysia's end-June palm stocks, output and exports that will be released by industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board on Thursday to gauge demand for the tropical oil.

"There are no new leads in the market, that's the problem. We're looking at a range of 2,400-2,420 ringgit today," the Kuala Lumpur-based trader added.

By the midday break, the benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.4 percent to 2,405 ringgit ($757) per tonne. Prices were stuck in a tight range between 2,400 and 2,416 ringgit.

Total traded volume stood at only 9,746 lots of 25 tonnes, compared to the usual 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil looks neutral in a range of 2,385-2,433 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

"A rise above 2,433 ringgit will confirm the extension towards 2,448 ringgit, the 50 percent level, while a fall below 2,385 ringgit will signal the extension of the downtrend towards 2,362 ringgit, the June 12 low," Tao said.

A Reuters survey of planters, traders and analysts forecast Malaysia's June ending stocks would drop 2.2 percent to 1.8 million tonnes, its first fall since March, and for production to ease 0.4 percent to 1.65 million tonnes.

Crude palm oil output in Malaysia, the world's second-largest grower, was initially slated to climb higher in June, but hot and dry weather likely curbed yields, planters said.

In other markets, Brent crude slipped below $110 a barrel on Tuesday, trading close to its lowest in nearly a month, as fears of supply disruption in Iraq eased and prospects for a rise in Libyan exports improved.

In other competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract climbed 0.3 percent in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.2 percent.



Copyright Reuters, 2014
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 09, 2014, 09:22:07 AM
VEGOILS-Market factors to watch 9 July

The following factors are likely to influence Malaysian palm oil futures and Related Stories

VEGOILS-Market factors to watch June 24 Reuters VEGOILS-Palm touches near one-month high as export data eyed Reuters VEGOILS-Palm edges up, investors eye smaller stockpiles Reuters VEGOILS-Palm little changed, hovers near 1-month high on better exports, firm crude Reuters VEGOILS-Palm slips on weaker soy, records biggest quarterly drop since Sept 2012 Reuters other vegetable oil markets.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest level in nearly one month on Tuesday as buying interest dried up after the ringgit surged to a more than seven-month high, while caution ahead of a key stocks report kept some investors
away from risky bets.

* U.S. soybean futures fell for the seventh straight session on Tuesday, and corn slid lower for a sixth day as favorable weather around the Midwest buoyed forecasts of record crops this autumn.

* Brent crude slid more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday, its seventh straight decline, hitting a one-month low below $109 as Libyan oil exports looked likely to rise and fears eased of supply disruption in Iraq.

MARKET NEWS

* The dollar eased and global equity markets fell on Tuesday as investors stepped back ahead of second-quarter earnings reports and after successive record highs last week for several major stock indices.

RELATED

> Grain Exporters To Feel More Price Pain As Shipping Rates Set To Rise

> Argentina 2013/14 Soy Crop Seen At 55.7 Mln Tonnes - Rosario

> Possible Argentina Debt Default Seen Reducing Corn Output

DATA/EVENTS

> Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance to release Malaysia's July 1-10 palm oil export data on 10 July .

> Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) to release data on Malaysia's end-June palm oil stocks, exports and production on 10 July .
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 09, 2014, 09:28:18 AM
Palm Oil Hits Hurdles in Southeast Asia

Indonesia and Malaysia are lagging behind ambitious targets set by their governments to use more palm-based biodiesel at home, helping send prices of palm oil tumbling 18% since March.

The two Southeast Asian countries account for about 85% of world palm oil output, used in items from toothpaste to biscuits. Both are pressing ahead though to use more palm oil in biodiesel and reduce the burden of maintaining subsidies on transport fuels gasoline and diesel.

But Indonesia has been reporting hurdles in meeting the biodiesel targets since early this year due to a lack of blending facilities, as well as challenges in distributing the fuel to thousands of islands that make up the country. Malaysia too has fallen short of its plan to implement a target of using 5% in biodiesel blend by July 1 because of delays to blending facilities in the east of the country, said Malaysia’s deputy secretary general of commodities, M. Nagarajan.

Malaysia says it plans to implement a 7% blend nationwide remain are on track for Jan. 1 next year.

Overly-pessimistic forecasts about a spell of dry weather early this year would cut the crop in Indonesia and Malaysia have also not happened, driving the price lower as more supply has come on board.

With Indonesia, there has also been producer and blender disagreements over pricing, and the absence of strong political will to remove or cut fuel subsidies, said the U.S. Department of Agriculture in a report this month. Meanwhile, East Malaysia is also facing distribution challenges, it said.

Analysts including Dorab Mistry of Godrej International Ltd. say this calls into question the two governments commitment to biodiesel. Mr. Mistry says Indonesia’s consumption of palm-based biodiesel for the first five months of this year is similar to that in the same period last year, pointing to overall flat consumption volumes in this marketing year.

Despite earlier proclaiming Indonesia and Malaysia’s biodiesel mandates an industry “game changer” for palm oil, Mr. Mistry is now more cautious on his earlier bullishness on biofuel demand.

“Palm has become far too dependent on biodiesel demand and that is an unreliable, opportunistic and sporadic market. Palm must fight for market share of edible food demand,” Mr. Mistry said.

Indonesia and Malaysia both lagging on their biodiesel drive will “likely dampen demand moving forth”, said Phillip Futures Malaysia’s derivatives specialist David Ng.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 09, 2014, 11:51:17 PM
Palm touches 9-month low as weak soy, firm ringgit drags

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures edged down on Wednesday to touch their lowest since October as losses in soyoil markets overseas and a firm ringgit dragged, although prospects of smaller supplies of the vegetable oil provided support.

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange touched 2,361 ringgit in late trade, its lowest since Oct. 14, before settling at 2,375 ringgit ($749) per tonne at close on Wednesday, a 0.4 percent drop.

Total traded volume stood at 49,488 lots of 25 tonnes, above the usual 35,000 lots.

"Falling soybean oil prices should let the day bears check the nearest low of 2,362 ringgit," said a trader with a local commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur.

The US soyoil contract fell 0.6 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 1.6 percent.

Palm typically tracks soyoil, a food and fuel substitute. Weaker soyoil prices could shift demand away from palm.

A firm ringgit also stemmed buying interest from overseas investors and refiners. The Malaysian unit was trading at 3.1700 per dollar, after strengthening to a more-than-7-month high on Tuesday.

"The soybean oil markets are down, the ringgit is still very strong... Malaysian palm oil continues to be under pressure," said another Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

Technicals showed Malaysian palm is expected to fall to 2,358 ringgit per tonne, driven by a wave 3, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. This is the third wave of a five-wave cycle that developed from the June 25 high of 2,511 ringgit.

Market participants are pinning hopes for an official industry report to show that output and stocks in Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm grower, fell in June. A Reuters survey forecast Malaysia's June-end stocks to drop to 1.8 million tonnes.

"The report tomorrow should be friendly and supportive. That's why a lot of people don't want to sell down at this level, until the MPOB report is out," the second trader added.

Industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, will release its monthly data on stocks, output and exports on Thursday.

Some analysts predict crude palm oil production in Malaysia and parts of Indonesia will further ease in July on dry weather and shorter working hours due to a festival, potentially supporting prices that have already lost 11 percent this year.

"July production may be further impacted by lower productivity during the fasting month, which we believe could directly result in an interruption of the inventory upcycle," RHB Research Institute said in a note on Wednesday.

"Should demand be strong enough, palm oil stockpiles could start to decline from the current level."

In other markets, Brent crude oil traded at a one-month low under $109 a barrel on Wednesday after a Libyan oilfield restarted and supply worries faded, prompting traders to reduce long positions.



Copyright Reuters, 2014
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 10, 2014, 11:46:03 AM
MALAYSIA JULY 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS 445,968 (+14.1%) TONS: INTERTEK
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 10, 2014, 01:24:12 PM
MPOB Says Malaysia June Palm Oil Stocks 1.66m Tons; Est. 1

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia,  world’s second-largest producer, fell 10% to 1.66m metric tons  in June from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
• Output declined 5.3% to 1.57m tons, while exports climbed 5.3% to 1.48m tons• NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 1.86m tons, production at 1.66m tons and shipments at 1.45m tons
BN 07/10 04:32 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS RISE 5.3% M/M: MPOB BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.48M TONS; EST. 1.45M TONS BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT FALLS 5.3% M/M: MPOB BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.57M TONS; EST. 1.66M BN 07/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKS FALL 10% M/M: MPOB BN 07/10 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKS 1.66M TONS; EST. 1.86M
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 11, 2014, 02:04:50 PM
VEGOILS-Palm bounces off 9-mth low as stocks tighten, exports pick up

* Prices fall to 2,349 rgt in early trade, lowest since

October 2013

* Malaysia's July 1-10 palm oil exports up 14.1-18.7 pct m/m

- cargo surveyors

* Palm oil to fall to 2,340 ringgit -technicals

* Malaysia's end-June palm stocks fall to 1-year low of 1.66

mln T -MPOB

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, July 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Thursday, bouncing off a nine-month low hit in early trades, after an industry report showed that stocks in the No.2 producer sank to a one-year low, signalling tighter supplies ahead.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that palm stocks fell a bigger-than-expected 10 percent to 1.66 million tonnes at end-June, their lowest since June 2013, as dry weather curbed yields of the tropical oil.

The drop in stocks, which was the first in four months, missed market estimates that had forecast inventories to fall to 1.80 million tonnes.

"The end-stocks are very tight and the fundamentals for palm are very strong. Production is dipping -- I don't see any improvement for July," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia, who expects July end-stocks to fall below 1.65 million tonnes.

"It's about time the market recovers. With the current fundamentals, we should see better prices going forward."

The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 0.6 percent to settle at 2,387 ringgit ($751) per tonne, recovering from a low of 2,349 ringgit -- a level last touched on Oct. 8.

Total traded volume stood at 53,867 lots of 25 tonnes, above the usual 35,000 lots.

Technicals showed Malaysian palm is expected to fall to 2,340 ringgit per tonne, as it has broken below a support at

2,358 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

An uptick in export demand provided some support to prices that have fallen 10 percent so far this year.

Data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services showedthat exports of Malaysian palm oil products for July 1-10 rose

14.1 percent from the same period a month ago, thanks to

stronger demand from the world's top edible oil consumers Chinaand India.


Another cargo surveyor showed exports for the same period
rose 18.7 percent.

Palm oil, used as cooking oil and to make a range of

foodstuffs from instant noodles to margarines, as well as an
additive in biodiesel, typically tracks soyoil which is a common

food and fuel substitute.


The U.S. soyoil contract rose 0.6 percent in late

Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract

on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.2 percent.

In other markets, oil fell to around $108 a barrel on

Thursday, extending its longest losing streak in four years,

pressured by weak gasoline demand in the United States and the

prospect of rising supply from Libya.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 13, 2014, 07:54:58 PM
El Nino: A wild card for planters (1)

Weather, as one of the more important aspects for palm oil planters to worry about for their production during the year, is rapidly changing.

A sudden change in weather condition – especially dry and hot weather for a extended period – can negatively affect production and output of palm oil.

As one of the plantation experts Dorab Mistry said, the weather is expected to shape the production and price of the crude palm oil (CPO) this year.

“In the event that El Nino develops, I believe CPO futures will cling to RM3,000 beyond June.

“(Palm oil) production is likely to be affected from late 2014 onwards and we may be staring (at) RM3,500.

“However if rains come as normal and the high cycle kicks in from July onwards, prices can trade in a range between RM2,900 and RM2,600 from July until October.

“Palm oil production is under-performing and stocks are tight,” he said during a palm oil conference in Kuala Lumpur earlier this year.

At the same time, Mistry highlighted some new developments within the oil palm industry which could steer the palm oil market into a new dynamic cycle.

“There is going to be a big expansion of bio diesel capacity in Indonesia in the near future.

“This capacity will require bio diesel producers to lock in palm oil prices at least one year in advance. Almost all of them will be plantation linked.

“Hence, the availability of freely tradable palm oil will become somewhat restricted. It will also require much larger stocks to be maintained.

“Therefore, palm oil stocks will need to be much larger before they begin to exert any pressure on prices.

“For these reasons, I believe the Indonesian mandate is truly a ‘Game Changer’ and will keep palm oil prices relatively high for a long time,” Mistry observed.

On the contrary, he believed there is a small likelihood of production surpassing expectation if rainfall is better than normal.

“If prices of Brent (crude oil) fall and production of world oilseeds is also as expected, palm oil prices can fall below RM2,400 but that possibility is no more than 30 per cent,” he pointed out.

While Mistry, a director of India-based Godrej International Ltd, has his own view on the palm oil market, local analysts hinted at a similar scenario, citing  change in weather conditions and palm oil inventory level being the prime aspects affecting the outlook of the plantation industry.

M&A Securities Sdn Bhd (M&A Securities) in a report dated June 26 entitled ‘Betting on El-Nino for palm oil price up-cycle’ said weather plays an important role in the supply equation of production and yield, and particularly one of the key catalysts of CPO price movement.

The hot and dry weather of late is expected to persist for another few months as predicted by the Malaysian Meteorlogical Department. The situation has cause caustic reaction as people wonder whether El-Nino spell had started or otherwise.

Citing the Department of Meteorlogical Malaysia, M&A Securities said the current situations are due to the Southwest Monsoon (dry season for Malaysia) that has started in May and is expected to persist until September.

Surveys by international weather forecasters still indicated that there is a 70 per cent likelihood of the El Nino happening in 2014.

 

Potential effect of El Nino on palm oil production

Plantation experts have estimated that El-Nino could potentially reduce production up to 30 per cent during normal time depending on severity.

As a result of lower production and lesser yield, the situation could cause the supply of  palm oil inventory to be tight.

Already languishing from lower exports and stocks level compared with last year, industry players are anticipating the dry weather to be a potential factor that could exert pressure on CPO price to trade higher.

Ling Ah Hong, a director of Malaysian plantation consultancy and investment company Ganling Sdn Bhd who shared his views during a palm oil conference, said El Nino is normally followed by a surge in palm oil prices due to disruption of supply.

He noted that historically, when El Nino develops, palm oil prices increase.

Outlining two scenarios, he explained a moderate El Nino will reduce global supply growth in 2015 to less than 0.5 million tonnes while a severe EL Nino will result in a contraction of 0.6 million tonnes, subsequently leading to severe supply tightness in the world.

Another factor which Ling strongly believed could cause CPO price to trend higher in the future, is the tightening supply of palm oil inventory.

Giving an outlook for CPO price, he indicated that the price could be moving higher next year.

“We expect palm oil prices to trend higher in 2014 and 2015. (The) average price for 2014 is expected to increase by about 14 per cent to RM2,700 per tonne against RM2,360 per tonne in 2013.

“This will be supported by steady demand from food and additional demand of two million tonnes from Indonesia domestic biodiesel usage.

“Looming palm oil supply tightness due to past and emerging dry weather will be a key catalyst to upward price movement in 2015.

“Plantation companies in Indonesia and Malaysia should generally fare better this year (compared with 2013),” he observed.

Ling also observed that Sabah and Sarawak planters should witness a recovery in production this year as both geographical locations have expereinced no prolonged rainfall deficit  in 2012 and 2013.

Whether rain or dry season is coming, analysts are cautious on the sector’s prospect at present.

Sector outlook and analysts top pick

Despite the possible occurance of the El-Nino, analysts have yet to call the shot of a “buy call” on the plantation sector.

Most of them are forecasting the sector to perform largely in line with expectations with an upward bias.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) which released the palm oil statistics for June on July 10 revealed that the palm oil inventory fell to one-year low.

The research arm of JF Apex Securities Bhd (JF Apex Research) in a report said despite going into high production season, CPO production was lower in June, down 5.26 per cent on monthly basis after growing 6.5 per cent in May.

It observed that the drop of CPO production in June was steeper than market expectations of 0.4 per cent decline as surveyed by a news agency.

JF Apex Research analyst Jessica Low said, “We reckon that the steep fall of palm oil inventory in June to one-year low is a positive surprise to the plantation sector and would support CPO prices.

“The CPO production was under pressure in June as a result of laggard effect of drought in January.

“Looking ahead, we expect CPO production in July to ease further before resuming its uptrend in August, as harvesting days will be fewer in July due to the Hari Raya festival.



“Meanwhile, spot CPO prices are moving around RM2,430 per metric tonne (MT), its nine-month low level.

“We feel that the current CPO price had factored in the adverse effect and expect limited downside for CPO prices,” she said.

For exposure to the plantation sector, most analysts believe that TSH Resources Bhd (TSH) is one of the best performing plantation companies throughout Malaysia.

They believed earnings of TSH is poised to grow healthily over the next few years supported by higher FFB production and better FFB yield on matured palm oil plantation.

The research arm of Public Investment Bank Bhd (Public Invest Research) in a report dated March 20 said TSH’s young Indonesian estates amidst the bullish CPO price movements will see the company become of the biggest plantation gainers this year.

The research firm even highlighted that the plantation company’s young  age profile of its oil palm plantation is the growth driver.

Public Invest Research said close to 78 per cent of TSH’s total planted are are below seven years old, with an average age of about six to seven years old.

“We believe the company will be able to maintain its double-digit fresh fruit bunches (FFB) production growth in the next couple of years, albeit at a slower pace driven by its young (tree) age profile.

“In addition, there is unplanted landbank of 23,815 hectares and 53,430 hectares in Malaysia and Indonesia respectively, pointing that there will be continuous expansion in the company for the next 10 to 15 years.

“In the next five to 10 years, we believe the company will rank on par with big capitalisation plantation companies once it has achieved sizeable mature area,” the research firm said.

In the meantime, Public Invest Research is expecting the company to register strong earnings growth this year.

The research firm had forecasted a strong jump for TSH group’s earnings this year supported by increases in palm oil production and CPO prices which will highly benefit the company in being a pure upstream plantation player.

Nonetheless, its forecasts are based on the assumption of 16 per cent rise in FFB production and full-year average CPO price of RM2,750 per metric ton, which is significantly stronger than the average CPO price of RM2,251 per MT recorded last year.

Following a visit to TSH’s plantation estate in Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan earlier, PublicInvest Research said the company’s plantation estate, PT Sarana Prima Multi Niaga Estate in Central Kalimantan boasted a total gross area of 7,198 hectares.

The research firm said the plantation estate, equipped with a 45 metric tonne per hour mill is producing FFB for TSH and is also one of the best performing mills for the company with an average oil extraction rate (OER) of 24.6 per cent for the last three years.

Hence, given higher FFB production for TSH and its young age profile of the company’s oil palm plantation, Public Invest Research is optimistic that the plantation company earnings will be sustained in the near future.

At the same time, the research arm of Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga Research) and RHB Reseach Institute Sdn Bhd are both upbeat about the company’s financial performance for financial year 2014 (FY14).

Obviously, analysts are sounding the drum after TSH’s financial results for the first quarter of 2014 (1Q14) has largely beaten their expectations.

For 1Q14, TSH’s net profit jumped 162 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM52.17 million compared with RM19.93 million recorded in 1Q13.

RHB Research said the better than expected financial results was attributed to higher average CPO price realised and double-digit production growth.

Going forward, the research firm expects TSH’s new matured oil palm plantation in Kalimantan and improving FFB yield to lift its earnings for  upcoming quarters.

The research arm of MIDF Amanah Investment Bank Bhd (MIDF Research) also believed that the company’s long term growth remains strong supported by sizeable unplanted plantation landbank and new planting programme.

MIDF Research in a report dated May 23 said, “Given substantial portion of immature and young trees, we are optimistic on TSH long-term earnings prospect.

“TSH high proportion of immature and young trees will be the catalyst to support TSH’s earnings in the long-term.

“Furthermore, as at December 2013, about 66 per cent of its total plantation landbank is still unplanted.

“With new planting programme of approximately 3,000 hectares per year, we believe the growth story of TSH will remain intact,” the research firm noted.

As for Sarawak planters, most of them do not foresee the potential occurance of the El Nino to have an adverse impact on their production.

 

SARAWAKIAN PLANTERS OUTLOOK



Ta Ann

Ta Ann Holdings Bhd (Ta Ann) being one of the large capitalisation company listed on Bursa Malaysia does not foresee any adverse impact related to El Nino phenomenon as it implements good water management system to conserve water in its peat plantations.

Ta Ann group managing director was quoted as saying,”The potential occurance of the El Nino dry weather phenomenon will not have much impact on the oil palm sector in Sarawak.

“This is because more than 40 per cent of the state’s oil palm plantations are in peat soil areas.

“The water management in peat soil areas will continue to provide water for the palms.

“El Nino will have greater impact on those planted in mineral soil,” he said.

As for Ta Ann, the timber cum plantation company expects its FFB production for 2014 to be around 12 per cent to 14 per cent higher compared to last year as more plantation matures.

Looking ahead, the company expects to carry out new planting of around 2,000 hectares this year which mainly are expansion of its existing plantation estates.

When asked on the company’s plans to acquire more landbank in the near future, Ta Ann revealed plans to develop more native customary rights (NCR) lands jointly with native landowners which will bring many socio-economic benefits.

The company is still in discussions with relevant parties for more land acquisitions to further expand the company’s plantation division.

Additionally, Ta Ann is optimistic on the price of CPO in 2014, expecting comparatively stronger financial performance this year on the back of the anticipated higher FFB production and brighter price outlook for palm oil and timber.

Its young age tree profile with an average of seven years will contribute sustainable growth to the company’s earnings in the future.

The group’s oil palm estates are located in several districts throughout Sarawak, for instance in Sibu, Daro, Igan, Bintulu and Song.

 

Sarawak Oil Palms

Moving on to another plantation player, Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd (SOP) also expects the company’s FFB production to post double digit growth despite the probability of El Nino.

SOP said,”The FFB production for 2014 is expected to be 1.1 million MT, representing growth of 17.7 per cent against 2013 FFB production.

“The key factor for growth is the shift of palm age profile to more productive age profile despite current dry weather,” the company said.

SOP disclosed that as at Dec 2013, 50.9 per cent of the company’s palm age profile is young from four to 10 years old, 26.8 per cent has achieved prime age between 11 to 20 years, 12.7 per cent is immature and just about 9.6 per cent is 21 years and above.

Moving forward, the company said there will be some replanting of less than 500 hectares carried out at its plantation estates located along Lambir and Suai areas in Miri.

Majority of its plantation estates are located within Miri and Bintulu divisions and its estates located at Niah area has posted the higher yield per hectare for 2013.

As part of the group’s expansion plan, SOP recently announced an acquisition of two plantation companies with 9,600 planted hectares located at Sebauh, Bintulu.

The acquisition is currently pending the fulfillments of certain conditions.

As for CPO prices, the company expects it to move in the range of RM2,400 to RM2,500 per MT this year.

On SOP’s 2014 financial performance, the planter believed it should perform better than last year with improved FFB production and higher average CPO price realised this year as compared to 2013.

 

Rinbunan Sawit

Likewise, another plantation company Rimbunan Sawit Bhd (Rimbunan Sawit) concurred with Ta Ann and SOP that if the El Nino does happen, its production will not be substantially affected.

In an e-mail interview, Rimbunan Sawit managing director Tiong Chiong Ong expects its our overall figure to go up slightly despite an estimated drop of 10 to 20 per cent by (the potential occurance of)  El Nino effect because of increasing matured area and more palms reaching prime production age.

“Currently, the age profile of our oil palm plantation is mostly in the range of seven to 15 years.

“Out of a total of 54,670 hectares, 16,290 hectares or 30 per cent is in the range of seven to 15 years, 13,270 hectares or 24 per cent is more than 15 years, 12,600 hectares or 23 per cent is below 3 years old, 7,310 hectares or 13 per cent is between four to seven years old and 5,200 hectares or 10 per cent is in the range of three to four years old,” he said.

Whilst Rimbunan Sawit does not plan to acquire more plantation landbank in the near future, the plantation company is focusing on planting some 2,500 hectares of plantation landbank this year mostly at its estates in Kuching and Miri region.

The company revealed that its plantation landbank is located at Sibu, Kuching and Miri noting that its wholly-owned subsidiary Nescaya Palma Sdn Bhd which plantation estate is located close to Sibu has the highest yield at 18 MT per hectare in 2013.

On the CPO price outlook, the company opined that it will move in the range of RM2,300 to RM2,500 per MT this year.

As for Rimbunan Sawit’s financial performance for FY14, the company is expecting a marginal increase in overall results with average CPO price realised at about RM2,400 per MT.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 13, 2014, 07:56:00 PM
El Nino: A wild card for planters continue from previous page

ANALYSTS VIEW ON SARAWAK PLANTERS

The research arm of Affin Investment Bank Bhd (Affin Research) in its latest report dated July 8 said Ta Ann’s palm oil division remains a key earnings contributor to the group, at 70 per cent of the group’s total profit before tax for financial year estimate of 2014 to 2016.

The research firm observed that the higher earnings should be supported by increasing maturity of its plantation estates and rising FFB and CPO production as well as yield.

Affin Research said, “We forecast Ta Ann’s matured plantation area of 27,958 hectares as at December 2013 to increase to 30,911 hectares in FY14 and 35,345 hectares in FY15.

“Based on this, we expect FFB and CPO production to continue increasing given Ta Ann’s young weighted average age profile of trees, approximately six to seven years, along with anticipation of higher FFB yield from 18.9 per cent in 2013 to 20 per cent in FY14.

“As at end of May, Ta Ann’s FFB and CPO production increased by 14.9 per cent y-o-y and 55.5 per cent y-o-y to 197,307 MT and 43,592 MT respectively.

RHB Research in a report on May 12 said SOP’s plantation yield is expected to start climbing in 2015 or latest by 2016 after declining in the past five years due to new plantation reaching maturity.

The research firm observed the slowdown for SOP’s newly mature plantation area this year onwards will result in its FFB yield eventually rising.

As for SOP’s acquisition of two companies earlier, RHB Research estimated that the deal is expected to be completed in September and is projected to contribute about 100,000 tonnes of FFB per year from next year onwards.

The research firm noted that SOP had earlier proposed to acquire 60 per cent stake in two companies namely DD Pelita Sebungan Plantation Sdn Bhd and Mutiara Pelita Genaan Plantation Sdn Bhd for RM134.9 million to be funded through a combination of cash and shares.

RHB Research cited the two companies have collectively planted area of 9,660 hectares and the acquisition has translated into a bargain of RM23,275 per hectare, considering the soil is mineral soil.

The research firm further observed that the acquired asset also has some 5,000 hectares of new planting to be done.

Over the long term, RHB Research said SOP is targeting to reach 100,000 hectares of planted area.

The research arm of Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank Research) said SOP’s FFB production are highly yielded towards the second half of the year.

Maybank Research observed that over the past four years, approximately 58 per cent of SOP yearly FFB output was recorded in the second half of the year.

It noted that typically, the first quarter is the plantation company’s lowest quarter in terms of FFB output and the production is forecasted to peak in the third quarter of a year.

Over the medium term, Maybank Research believed that the prospect of SOP remains bright supported by the company’s three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of FFB output estimated at 12 per cent for 2013 to 2016 and the unlocking of the plantation company’s oil palm estates value near Miri through property development over the next three to five years.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: uvirra on July 14, 2014, 10:52:56 AM
Thank you, Vincent88. Really appreciate your news sharing.  :thumbsup:
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 14, 2014, 11:17:33 PM
Thank you, Vincent88. Really appreciate your news sharing.  :thumbsup:

Thanks. Sometimes will delay a bit due to busy.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 14, 2014, 11:18:23 PM
Crude Palm Oil to weaken on higher production, lower Crude Oil prices



Kotak Commdoity Services Ltd (Kotak Commodities) said in a CPO quarterly report that prices rose 11.22% from January to May on expectations that dry weather will dent output in Indonesia and Malaysia.


14 Jul 2014

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): After witnessing a volatile market in January- May, 2014 when prices touched a high of Rs 612 per 10 kg, Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices may remain moderate to weak in June to September on higher production in Indonesia and Malysia apart from lower crude oil prices. Currently the market is well supplied and with lower sof oil price, demand for palm oil will decline.

Kotak Commodity Services Ltd (Kotak Commodities) said in a CPO quarterly report that prices rose 11.22% from January to May on expectations that dry weather will dent output in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Lower exports since Feb till May led to higher inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia’s, higher inventory led to a sharp correction in price. Bio-Diesel demand which was supposed to absorb the incremental supply was also not witnessed, as Indonesia, Malaysia and Argentina failed to meet their Bio-diesel commitments

Looking ahead, Kotak Commodities said thatt he demand of Palm oil will only pick up on price rationing, as lower price will lead to demand revival. With higher Soy oil and Sunflower production estimates the outlook for Palm oil looks bleak.

"We expect the BMD Palm oil futures to decline till MYR 2250-2200 in the quarter July – September 2014. On the higher side price can bounce till MYR 2450-2500. In Indian market, price could trade in the range of 550-450 in next quarter. Bias for the quarter will be downwards. We recommend selling September 2014 contract at 530 and on rallies towards 550 with a target of Rs 490-460. Stops could be placed at 565," Kotak Commodities said.

Global scenario
Indonesia and Malaysia together produces around 80% of world palm oil. Indonesia is estimated to produce 31 MMT of CPO compared to 28.5MMT in 2012-13, a rise of 8.77%. While Malaysia’s Palm oil production is only marginally higher (0.41%) in 2013-14 compared to 2012-13 at 19.40 MMT. Indonesia has witnessed an immense rise of 40% in its production since 2009-10. Higher production of Palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia was attributed to higher fresh fruit bunch yield and additional mature areas. As per the latest USDA report, total palm oil production is expected to gain by 5.39% in 2013-14 compared to 2012-13. Also it is estimated that 2013-14 will witness all time high palm oil production. With all time high production, the market is expected to be well supplied.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 15, 2014, 09:53:11 AM
Palm oil sinks to nine-month low on falling demand

In Malaysia, palm oil prices fell to a nine-month low on Friday of just under $747 per metric ton, the biggest drop in six weeks, following soy oil lower that then triggering liquidation of long positions. Prices were down 2.3% on the week and down 1.7% on the day. Indonesia’s failure to boost biodiesel consumption mixed with expectations of a bumper US soy crop is keeping demand for palm oil low.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: steve_lee on July 15, 2014, 10:10:38 AM
Palm oil price down, but why palm oil stocks still strong leh????

Palm oil stocks must down also mah...
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: Ļaughing Ģor on July 15, 2014, 02:38:01 PM
財經:大豆油庫存走高‧棕油價墜熊市
棕油價格挫跌至9個月新低,緊隨美國政府宣佈大豆油庫存紀錄走高,棕油正式邁入“熊市”! ‪#‎大豆油‬ ‪#‎熊市‬

Finance: ‧ soybean oil inventories higher, palm oil prices in bear market
 Palm-oil prices tumbled to a 9-month lows, followed by the United States Government announcement that soybean recorded high stock level, palm oil officially entered "bear market"!

(https://fbexternal-a.akamaihd.net/safe_image.php?d=AQBOJ-lZgj9_kmTA&w=470&h=246&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net%2Fhphotos-ak-xpf1%2Ft1.0-9%2F10517458_748551428536634_3273899252268010505_n.jpg&cfs=1&upscale)

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 16, 2014, 03:21:21 PM
MALAYSIA JULY 1-15 PALM OIL EXPORTS 653,675 (+11.4%) TONS: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 16, 2014, 10:16:03 PM
India's June palm oil imports second biggest this year


NEW DELHI: India imported 5,98,247 tonnes of palm oil in June, the second biggest shipments so far this calendar year, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA).

However, total palm oil imports by the world's leading vegetable oil buyer during the month was much lower than 6,70,762 tonnes shipments in June 2013.

According to SEA data, palm oil imports had touched highest at 6,54,255 tonnes in May, while the shipments were second highest in June at 5,98,247 tonnes.

Palm oils make up 71 per cent of the country's total vegetable oil imports. India meets 60 per cent of its annual vegetable oil demand of 17-18 million tonnes via imports.

"The share of palm oils in total vegetable oil imports has narrowed down to 71 per cent from 80 per cent on rise in shipments of soft oils due to the price difference," SEA Executive Director B V Mehta told PTI.

The share of soft oils has risen to 29 per cent of total vegetable oil imports now. Import of soft oils comprising soybean oil and sunflower oils rose to 2,62,489 tonnes in June, from 2,40,329 tonnes in the year-ago month, he added.

Last month, crude palm oil (CPO) price was at USD 841 per tonne and crude sunflower oil rate at USD 936 per tonne.

Whereas in the same month last year, crude sunflower oil was ruling at as high as USD 1,208 per tonne and CPO at USD 832 per tonne, the SEA data showed.

The country's total vegetable oil imports declined 4 per cent to 8,83,679 tonnes in June this year, compared to 9,47,591 tonnes in the year-ago month, the SEA said.

India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia and small quantity of crude soft oils, including soyabean oil, from Latin America and sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 17, 2014, 08:39:31 AM
VEGOILS-Palm rises as soy markets recover; weak ringgit supports

* Malaysia's July 1-15 palm oil exports up 11-14 pct m/m

-cargo surveyors

* Recovery in oversold soy markets helps rebound in palm

prices - trader

* Palm oil to retest support at 2,298 ringgit - technicals

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, July 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, rebounding from the previous session's slide to an over 9-month low, as a recovery in comparative soy markets and a weaker ringgit provided some relief to the tropical oil.

The U.S. soyoil contract rose 0.3 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange gained 0.2 percent. Palm oil typically tracks soy markets, a common food and fuel substitute.

A weaker ringgit currency meanwhile stoked buying interest from overseas investors and refiners. The Malaysian ringgit lost 0.2 percent to trade at 3.1880 per dollar late Wednesday as the greenback managed to hold firm.

"The recovery in soybean oil markets, which are oversold, is helping palm to rebound," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Another factor is that the ringgit has weakened compared to last Friday. That is giving additional support to palm," the trader added.

The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange edged up 0.9 percent to 2,304 ringgit ($723) per tonne at Wednesday's close.

Prices in the previous session had dropped to a more-than-9-month low of 2,292 ringgit, dragged by prospects of

bigger competing edible oil supply as well as losses in crude oil markets.

Total traded volume on Wednesday stood at 49,375 lots of 25

tonnes, much higher than the usual 35,000 lots.


Technicals showed that Malaysian palm may retest support at

2,298 ringgit per tonne, as it could have completed a rebound

triggered by this level, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

However, Tao added that a break above 2,328 ringgit will

indicate the continuation of the rebound towards 2,346 ringgit.

An uptick in export data in the first half of the month also

raised optimism of firm global demand for the tropical oil.

Malaysia's shipments of palm oil products were 14.2 percent

higher between July 1-15 compared to the same period a month

ago, data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services showed,

thanks to bigger purchases from China and Europe.

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance

showed that exports for the same period rose 11.4 percent to

653,675 tonnes from 586,701 tonnes shipped a month ago.

In other markets, Brent crude prices edged up above $106.50

a barrel on Wednesday as data from China showed its economy grew

faster than expected in the second quarter and the country's

implied oil demand rose to its highest since the beginning of

last year.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1010 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume

MY PALM OIL AUG4 2371 +26.00 2355 2380 805

MY PALM OIL SEP4 2324 +26.00 2305 2334 8989

MY PALM OIL OCT4 2304 +20.00 2288 2315 23282

CHINA PALM OLEIN JAN5 5710 +24.00 5674 5742 469054

CHINA SOYOIL JAN5 6488 +12.00 6452 6492 297090

CBOT SOY OIL DEC4 37.20 +0.09 36.97 37.31 5557

NYMEX CRUDE AUG4 100.65 +0.69 100.07 100.79 16168

Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne

CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound

Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne

Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel

($1 = 3.1870 Malaysian ringgit)

($1 = 6.2047 Chinese yuan)

(Editing by Sunil Nair)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 17, 2014, 12:43:20 PM
VEGOILS-Market factors to watch July 17

FUNDAMENTALS

* Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, rebounding from the

previous session's slide to an over-9-month low, as a recovery in comparative

soy markets and a weaker ringgit provided some relief to the tropical oil.

* U.S. corn and soybean futures rose on Wednesday in a light bounce after

setting multiyear lows a day earlier, but farmer selling and expectations of

near-record U.S. harvests limited gains.

* U.S. crude oil rose more than $1 on Wednesday, rebounding from recent steep

drops after government data showed the country's crude stockpiles fell sharply

last week.

MARKET NEWS

* Stock markets around the world rose on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones

industrial average ending at record levels as strong China growth data and

potential big deals in the United States boosted investor sentiment.

* Commodities sank on Tuesday, with a key sector gauge at five-month lows, after

crude oil prices were hit by higher Libyan output and weak global growth while

gold fell on a Federal Reserve report showing U.S. bond-buying will end by

October.

RELATED

> Russian ministry raises 2014 grain crop forecast by 3 pct

> Indonesia expects rice surplus of 4.2 mln tonnes in 2014 -govt

> Malaysia's Jul 1-15 palm oil exports rose 11.4 pct -SGS

> Malaysia's July 1-15 palm exports rise 14.2 pct -ITS

> Typhoon kills at least 20 in the Philippines, heads towards China

> More Argentine grains workers strike in pivotal export hub

> Dry weather in Russia triggers upgrades to grain crop forecasts

DATA/EVENTS

> Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance

to release Malaysia's July 1-20 palm oil export data on July 21.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0014 GMT

Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 18, 2014, 10:38:53 AM
Prices for Palm Oil Hit Nine-Month Lows


The global palm oil market is taking a beating from forecasts of record soybean and corn crops this year, as prices of the world's most widely-used vegetable oil have hit nine-month lows.

On Thursday, benchmark crude-palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia closed at 2,290 ringgit($718) per metric ton, down as much as 2.6% this week. At one point, they hit their lowest levels since October 4, as soybean and corn prices fell to multiyear lows amid expectations of a bumper crop.

As a result, soybean and corn-oil prices are also down, narrowing the price premiums these rival edible oils command over palm oil. Demand for palm oil has been hurt as a result.

Traditional vegetable oils like soybean oil and groundnut oil are preferred choices for consumers in India, China and other large importers.

Citi Futures specialist Sterling Smith noted Wednesday that the premium of soybean oil over palm oil has been reduced to just $89.56 per ton--far lower than the one-year average of $117.44, as well as the two-year average of $ 219.38.

Such concerns have eclipsed any improvement to market sentiment brought by stronger Malaysian palm-oil exports, which rose 11%-14% from July 1 to July 15 compared with a month earlier, reversing from an on-month decline of 7.8% to 8.3% in the same period in June. Meanwhile, the Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated that June exports rose 5% from May.

Indonesia and Malaysia are the world's two biggest producers of palm oil, together accounting for 85% of the market, which is used in a range of consumer products from toothpaste to biscuits.

The robust palm data came on the back of bullish figures last week showing lower Malaysian June palm-oil production and reduced end-month stockpiles. Still, benchmark Malaysian crude-palm oil futures closed 0.7% lower on Thursday.

The declining palm-oil prices contrast with the market rally during the first quarter, when prices jumped to an 18- month high in March amid very dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia, which triggered fears of lower yields. Prices are now 21% lower from the highs hit in March.

Despite the market's lull, some analysts say changing weather conditions could move prices higher in the coming months.

Commerzbank said in a note Wednesday that the weather "can still cause problems" for the production of oilseeds in the U.S., while any additional imports to China could provide some upside to prices.

Palm oil production could also fall if the El Niño weather system sets in later this year.

Write to Huileng Tan at huileng.tan@wsj.com
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 20, 2014, 11:31:20 PM
Palm Oil Reserves in Indonesia Drop to Two-Month Low as Output Falls

Palm oil stockpiles in Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, probably shrank to the lowest level in two months in June as production declined.

Inventories contracted 4.5 percent to 2.1 million tons from a month earlier, the median of estimates from five plantation and industry executives and analysts compiled by Bloomberg shows. That’s 13 percent less than a year earlier. Output fell 4.3 percent to 2.2 million tons, the survey showed. While exports were little changed at 1.7 million tons, they were the most for June since at least 2008, industry data show.

Palm oil, used in everything from candy to cooking oil and biofuel, entered a bear market this week on concern that record soybean stockpiles are adding to a global glut of cooking oils as demand slows from India, the world’s largest palm buyer. Declining prices may extend a third monthly drop in global food costs as measured by the United Nations.

“The trend in production is still low after hotspots disrupted harvesting,” said Eddy Martono, director of Mega Karya Nusa, a plantation company, referring to forest fires. “Domestic demand is increasing because of Ramadan. Output may start to climb in August or September because of the growth cycle,” he said by phone from Jakarta on July 10.

Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency said on June 25 that 386 hotspots were detected on Sumatra island, with 95 percent of them located in Riau province. Riau and North Sumatra provinces are the main palm-oil producing areas.

Rising supplies

While output declined in June, it expanded 2.4 percent to 12.9 million tons in the first half from a year earlier, according to calculations based on Bloomberg surveys. Production in Malaysia added 8 percent to 9.06 million tons in the same period, data from the country’s palm oil board showed.

Production in Indonesia may reach a record 30.5 million tons or more this year while Malaysia’s output will total an all-time high of 19.7 million tons to 19.9 million tons, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International. The two producers account for 86 percent of world supplies.

Mistry is less bullish on palm oil because supplies are increasing and demand is trailing estimates. Futures may climb to 2,800 ringgit ($879) by December if an El Nino occurs from mid-August, Mistry said on June 26, cutting his March prediction for an increase to 3,500 ringgit.

Futures entered a bear market on July 14 and have lost 13 percent this year. The October contract added 0.2 percent to 2,311 ringgit a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives on Thursday. Palm’s discount to soybean oil shrank 70 percent in the past year to $89 a ton, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Ukraine sunflowers

High sunflower supplies from Ukraine will continue to curb demand for palm oil, Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, said on July 11. India will continue to buy sunflower oil because of a bumper crop in the Ukraine and lower prices, according to B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

Palm imports by India declined for a second month in June as refiners bought more sunflower. Purchases of crude and refined palm oils slid 8.8 percent to 592,749 tons last month from a year earlier, the association said July 15.

Output in Indonesia may increase to 2.9 million tons in September and 3 million tons in October as trees reach their peak period for production, Bangun said by phone from Jakarta.
 The Indonesian Palm Oil Association, which doesn’t publish output and inventory data, may release June export figures next week. Production and reserve comparisons are based on surveys.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 20, 2014, 11:32:44 PM
Malaysia keeps August crude palm oil export tax at 5 pct


(Reuters) - Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm grower, has kept its crude palm oil export tax for August at 5 percent, a government circular showed on Friday, the same as a month ago.

The rate was lowered to 5.0 percent in July after being kept unchanged at 5.5 percent since April.

The Southeast Asian country calculated a reference price of 2,429.57 ringgit ($760) per tonne for August crude palm oil, effectively keeping the export duty at 5 percent. ($1 = 3.1800 Malaysian Ringgit) (Reporting by Anuradha Raghu; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 21, 2014, 12:01:03 PM
MALAYSIA JULY 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 868,843 (+7.76%) TONS: INTERTEK
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 21, 2014, 08:08:58 PM
MALAYSIA JULY 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 864,258 (+10.58%) TONS: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 22, 2014, 04:19:10 PM
Palm oil futures set to rise

Strong support seen near Malaysian ringgit 2,265-75

July 21, 2014:   Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives edged lower on Monday dropping to a nine-month low on weakness in the soya complex and a firm local currency once again dampening sentiment. Exports showed a positive trend for a change.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-20 rose 7.8 per cent from a month before to 868,843 tonnes due to bigger shipments to Europe and China. Exports to China nearly doubled compared with the same period in June.

Crude palm oil active month October futures are lower as expected. As mentioned in the previous update, a move below MYR 2,375/tonne could hint at weakness again possibly targeting 2,250 on the downside. Several targets are seen being tested in the coming sessions on the break below 2,275 levels.

Strong support will be seen near MYR 2,265-75 followed by important support at 2,245- 50 . Below here the market could be inclined to test further lows near MYR 2,185 levels too.

Though the undercurrent is weak, prices are displaying bullish tendencies.

Prices are holding well above 2,275-85 levels and this gives us a feeling that an up move or pullback looks likely in the coming sessions. Initial resistance will be seen towards towards 2,355-65 initially or could even extend towards 2,395-2,400 levels.

Though, the downtrend still remains intact, the downside from here also looks limited. Favoured view expects a pullback higher.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to 2,575-2,600 materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at MYR 2,898/tonne and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,185 levels now.

RSI is in the oversold zone now indicating a possible upward correction.

However, the averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearishness to be intact. Only a crossover again above the zero line could at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to rise again.

Supports are at MYR 2,265, 2,245 and 2,185. Resistances are at MYR 2,365, 2,400 and 2,435.

The author is the Director of Commtrendz Research. There is risk of loss in trading.

(This article was published on July 21, 2014)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 23, 2014, 10:30:22 PM
Palm falls for 2nd day on external pressures; tight supplies anticipated

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a second day on Tuesday, following losses in Chinese soy markets and on worries of bumper soy crops, although anticipation of tighter palm supplies curbed losses and kept prices stuck in a tight range.

By the midday break, the benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.4 percent to 2,287 ringgit ($720) per tonne, with prices locked between 2,282 and 2,293 ringgit.

While bearish external factors such as forecasts for an excellent soybean harvest and weakness in comparative soyoil markets continue to weigh on palm, market participants said prices were underpinned by prospects of a palm oil supply squeeze in the coming months.

"Prices are drifting sideways now - external conditions are bearish, but palm is friendly," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

"At these levels, you can see a lot of buying coming in. We have seen people locking in positions in the forwards, because it is even cheaper than the nearby months."

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer, slid to a 1-year low of 1.66 million tonnes at end-June.

Traders and analysts say stocks could continue to shrink, due to robust export demand and with output slated to fall as plantation workers go on holiday ahead of a Muslim festival at the end of this month.

"Stocks are currently very tight and this month's stocks will be even tighter. This is providing a strong support base for palm," the trader added.

Total traded volume on Tuesday stood at 11,888 lots of 25 tonnes, below the average 12,500 lots.

Technicals show Malaysian palm oil is expected to fall into a range of 2,250-2,268 ringgit per tonne, driven by a wave 3, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

"This is the third wave of a five-wave cycle that developed from the June 25 high of 2,511 ringgit. It has a fierce character and may eventually travel to 2,220 ringgit, its 161.8 percent projection level," Tao added.

Better harvesting conditions for the US soybean crop have paved the way for a bumper supply of the competing oilseed, which would weaken soyoil prices and potentially channel food and fuel demand away from palm.

The US Department of Agriculture reported that soybean conditions improved during the past week to the best level in 20 years, surprising several analysts who expected steady to lower soy ratings.

Firm export data in July, however, signalled a recovery in demand for the tropical oil.

Cargo surveyors reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-20 rose between 8 and 10 percent from a month ago, with exports to China nearly doubling compared with the same period in June.

Indonesia, the world's biggest palm grower, said it expects to export between 19 million and 20 million tonnes of palm oil in 2014, a decline of up to 9.5 percent from the 21 million tonnes sold last year.

Its leading industry body, Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), cited higher costs of logistics and shipping, as well as a "black campaign" against Indonesian palm oil that continues to impact its sales in the global market.

Indonesian exports in the first half of 2014 amounted to 9.75 million tonnes, down from around 11 million tonnes in the first half of 2013, according to GAPKI.

Malaysia exported 8.1 million tonnes in the same period, compared with 8.8 million tonnes last year, according to data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract rose 0.4 percent in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange fell 0.4 percent.

In other markets, Brent crude edged up towards $108 a barrel on Tuesday, pushed higher by escalating geopolitical tension over Ukraine and expectations of large draws in US oil stockpiles.

Copyright Reuters, 2014
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 26, 2014, 10:00:57 AM
Palm gives up gains as export demand falters

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Friday, reversing gains in the morning session to post their fourth straight weekly loss, as weaker-than-expected export data and jitters over rising global oilseed supply dragged.

Palm oil prices had edged up to 2,294 ringgit in early trade as investors short-covered positions ahead of the long weekend. Malaysian markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the Eid al-Fitr holiday.

But dwindling demand for palm oil after robust exports earlier this month turned investors wary and piled pressure on prices.

Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported that exports of Malaysia's palm oil products for July 1-25 fell 1.6 percent to 1,078,253 tonnes compared to a month ago, as demand from the United States and China lagged.

Intertek Testing Services, another cargo surveyor, reported exports for the same period were up 3.4 percent from a month ago, losing steam from bigger volumes of overseas sales earlier this month.

"There are some worries demand will be bad. The full-month exports might be lower, that's why the market is under pressure," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

"There was also some profit-taking which pushed the market down."

The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged down 0.7 percent to 2,265 ringgit ($714) per tonne by the day's close.

Prices fell 1.9 percent this week, recording their fourth weekly loss and a near 7 percent drop for the month.

Total traded volume stood at 24,488 lots of 25 tonnes, compared with the daily average of 35,000 lots.

Technicals were bearish. Malaysian palm oil may end its current rebound from the July 23 low of 2,247 ringgit around resistance at 2,298 ringgit, as indicated by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci projection analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Investors are also keeping a watch on output volumes in Malaysia and Indonesia, the world's top growers of the tropical commodity.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of growers, forecast that crude palm oil output in the No.2 producer surged more than 16 percent between July 1-20.

"Production is very important. We want to see how production is like," said another trader who is with a foreign commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur.

Official data for production and end-stocks will only be released by industry regulators next month.

In other markets, oil held steady around $107 a barrel on Friday, as plentiful supply countered any premium to the price caused by concern over conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract fell 0.4 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.3 percent.

Copyright Reuters, 2014
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 26, 2014, 10:14:29 AM
MALAYSIA JULY 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,165,306 (+3.41%) TONS: INTERTEK
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 29, 2014, 11:17:11 PM
Palm oil to test supports, rise

Support seen near Ringgit 2,265-75/tonne

Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended lower on Friday on rising global oilseed supply and falling exports ahead of a long weekend. Persistent weakness in the soya complex continues to weigh on Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange’s crude palm oil.

Malaysian markets are closed on Monday and Tuesday for Eid. Cargo surveyors SGS estimated that exports of Malaysia’s palm oil products for July 1-25 fell 1.6 per cent to 1,078,253 tonnes compared with the month ago period.

Crude palm oil active month October futures are lower as expected.

As mentioned in the previous update, prices could possibly be targeting MYR 2,250/tonne on the downside.

Also, as discussed, several targets are seen being tested in the coming sessions on the break below 2,275 levels.

Support will be seen near 2,265-75 followed by important support at 2,245-50 levels.

Below here the market could be inclined to test further lows near 2,185 levels too.

Though the undercurrent is weak, prices are still displaying some bullish tendencies.

Prices are holding well above 2,245-50 levels and an up move or pullback looks likely in the coming sessions.

While MYR 2,250 holds, prices are expected to test resistances at 2,355-65 initially or could even extend towards 2,395-2,400 levels.

Fall below 2,245 could see prices declining to 2,185-2,200.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135/tonne and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to 2,575-2,600 materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,185 levels now.

RSI is in the neutral zone now indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold.

However, the averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bearishness to be intact.

Only a crossover again above the zero line could result at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test supports and then rise again.

Supports are at MYR 2,255, 2,210 and 2,185. Resistances are at MYR 2,300, 2,355 and 2,395.

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 31, 2014, 01:09:31 PM
MALAYSIA'S JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,353,515 (-2.76%) TONS: INTERTEK
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 31, 2014, 10:19:37 PM
Palm oil price revival depends on biodiesel scheme

GOING into the second half of the year, many quarters are anticipating the country’s steep palm oil stocks can be reduced considerably – thanks to the nationwide implementation of the B5 biodiesel programme that takes effect this month.

It is envisaged that some 500,000 tonnes of palm oil annually would be taken up from the palm oil stockpile for B5 biodiesel that will be used in the Government’s subsidised and non-subsidised sectors.

(The B5 biodiesel is a blend of 5% palm oil or palm methyl ester (PME) with 90% diesel fuel)

The Government’s strong push for the biodiesel mandate could translate into the steep domestic palm oil stocks being reduced to below one million tonnes and also provide a floor price for CPO at RM2,000 per tonne.

 
 
 

In June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported that palm oil stock had already dropped to 1.66 million tonnes compared with 1.84 million tonnes in May.

Traditionally, the local palm oil inventory level is closely monitored by market players as it is used as the yardstick to gauge the next CPO price direction. The lower stock pile would normally signal that higher CPO prices are in the offing.

However, these bullish fundamentals are not being reflected in the current CPO prices, which are trending lower at RM2,290 to RM2,360 per tonne from its high of RM2,901 per tonne in March.

Experts said the CPO market actually had been spooked by recent reports that Malaysia’s palm oil stocks would breach 2 million tonnes by year-end.

Of late, many regional market analysts are speculating that palm oil stock could escalate to 2 million-2.4 million tonnes by end-2014, and possibly match the historic high of 2.6 million in 2012.

Contrary to earlier estimates, experts pointed out that the global palm oil production by the world’s largest producers – Indonesia and Malaysia – this year is expected to be higher at 30.4 million tonnes and 19.4 million tonnes respectively.

There will be more new oil palm maturing areas in East Kalimantan, Sarawak and Sabah this year that will trigger higher production.

Should this scenario occur, the CPO price could be dragged to trade below RM2,200 per tonne in the later part of this year, of which palm oil plantation owners could be experiencing some margin erosions.

On the flip side, when CPO is trading below RM2,200 per tonne, some quarters said the country’s lacklustre biodiesel industry could be deemed feasible due to the availability of cheaper palm oil feedstock to be converted into PME.

At the same time, the fortunes of oil palm plantations players could also be hit, should weaker CPO prices persist till year-end.

Among plantation companies, a mere RM100 increase or drop in the CPO price per tonne could translate into additional or reduced contributions to group profits.

For Sime Darby Bhd, every RM100 per tonne change in the CPO price would result in an “addition or reduction” of RM250mil to the group’s profit. Similarly, for Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd, every RM100 change in the CPO price could result in a RM100mil change in profit.

Despite the uncertainties ahead and the CPO price currently trading lower at RM2,250 per tonne, some quarters maintained that planters in Peninsular Malaysia would continue to reap in profits as their average CPO cost of production (COP) is still good at RM1,200 per tonne. The COP for Sabah and Sarawak planters’ is RM1,300 per tonne and RM1,600 per tonne respectively.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 01, 2014, 10:20:57 PM
Palm rises on weaker ringgit, set for first weekly gain in five

Malaysian palm oil futures rose today and were headed for their first weekly gain in five weeks, as a weaker local currency spurred buying interest for the ringgit-denominated palm feedstock.

The Malaysian ringgit slipped another 0.3% to 3.2070 per dollar early Friday, making margins more attractive for overseas investors and refiners. "Today the prices are following the further weakness in the ringgit," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
 Palm prices were also facing a bout of technical correction, traders said. "For the past 2-3 times, whenever prices went to the RM2,250 level, the market was unable to close below that level and always bounced back. So now, technically, prices are bouncing back to test the RM2,290-RM2,295 level," the trader added. By the midday break, the benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged up 0.9% to RM2,277 per tonne. Total traded volume stood at 13,454 lots of 25 tonnes, just above the usual 12,500 lots.

 Technicals showed that Malaysian palm oil is expected to test a resistance at RM2,298 per tonne, a break above which will lead to a further gain to RM2,328, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. Palm oil prices are geared for their first weekly gain in five with a 0.5% rise, after chalking up four weeks of losses. But a dip in global demand towards the end of July, after a strong surge in overseas sales earlier in the month, crimped gains and made investors cautious of bigger inventories in the world's No.2 producer. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services put shipments of Malaysian palm oil products 2.8% lower in July than in June, due to smaller purchases from China. "We had anticipated exports to be higher in July," the Malaysia-based trader added. "Because of the fall in exports, stocks may be higher than what the market had expected." Stocks in Malaysia stood at 1.66 million tonnes at end-June. Another cargo surveyor will release data for the same period on Monday. In competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract shed 0.2% in early Asian trade, while the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange fell 0.5%. In other markets, Brent crude held near US$106 (RM339.71) a barrel today as ample supply continued to drag on prices a day after the benchmark posted its worst monthly performance since April 2013.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 04, 2014, 07:54:15 PM
Higher palm oil output to cap prices, depending on El Nino

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil production in top growers Indonesia and Malaysia could pick up in the final months of this year, keeping a lid on prices, although some in the market are still worried about a potential El Nino plus tree stress in Malaysia.

Crude palm prices in Malaysia have tumbled more than 15 percent this year, due in part to a bumper harvest of rival soybeans. On Monday the benchmark October contract was down 1.1 percent at RM2,260 ($706) per tonne at midday.

The El Nino weather phenomenon, a warming of sea temperatures in the Pacific, can drench parts of the globe and parch others, damaging crops and food supply. Worries about an El Nino made many cautious about the palm crop initially this year.

However, Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, churned out 9.1 million tonnes of crude palm oil between January and June, up from 8.4 million in the same period last year.

 
 
 

"Output will be good. It is already showing signs of double-digit growth," said a trader with a Malaysian commodities brokerage. "In another two or three months, we're going to get close to 1.9 to 2.0 million tonnes of stocks."

Malaysian stocks stood at 1.66 million at the end of June.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the industry regulator, sees output hitting a record 19.5 million tonnes this year versus 19.2 million in 2013.

Not everyone expects such a surge. Some planters say output will be capped by the delayed impact of a short drought earlier this year.

"Production will pick up but the big question is by how much," said Carl Bek-Nielson, chief executive of Danish-Malaysian United Plantations.

"We don't expect a bumper crop in the second half as a function of the very dry weather and the stress the palm tress were exposed to in the first half," he added.

Fears of an El Nino have not entirely disappeared, either.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on July 29 that Pacific Ocean temperatures had eased in recent weeks but that an El Nino could not be ruled out, even though it was "increasingly unlikely to be a strong event" if it did occur.

"Overall, output could be higher, but it is subject to the El Nino effect," said Puru Kumaran, chief financial officer at IJM Plantations Bhd. "We really don't know whether there could be an effect that could hit towards the last quarter of the year."

INDONESIAN OUTPUT TO RISE

The outlook for crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the world's biggest grower, has turned round recently.

The Agriculture Ministry said in mid-July that output in 2014 had initially been forecast to drop 15-20 percent due to the predicted El Nino, but now it was expected to reach 29.5 million tonnes, up 6.3 percent from 27.8 million in 2013.

Indonesia and Malaysia together account for 85 percent of the world's palm oil.

Bumper supplies of soybeans for crushing into soyoil could depress prices of the rival edible oil and turn price-sensitive buyers away from palm oil unless its prices fall, too.

"There's a lot of competition from soybean oil. It really depends on the prices. If palm is priced cheap enough, the demand will be there," said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Research in Kuala Lumpur.

Refined palm olein currently trades at a discount of about $90 to soyoil, compared to about $60 at the start of 2014 and $300 in January 2013.

Ng expected palm prices to trade between 2,300 and 2,600 ringgit a tonne for the rest of the year, a little above the current level.

"I don't think it can break out of that range unless something drastic happens to the weather in the U.S. or in the palm oil region," she said.
Other analysts have also turned more bearish. Kenanga Investment Bank's Alan Lim has slashed his forecast for average prices in 2014 to 2,500 ringgit per tonne from 2,800 ringgit, citing lower estimates for soybean oil prices. - Reuters
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 06, 2014, 10:37:35 AM
Malaysia July palm oil stocks fell to a three-year low

second only to the world's second-largest palm oil producer in Indonesia – Malaysia July palm oil inventories dropped to its lowest level in more than three years, despite the increase in production. Seven farmers, analysts and traders in the survey, Malaysia July palm oil stocks down 3.6% 1.66 million tons last month, to 1.6 million tons. According to Palm oil data, which would be the lowest since February 2011. Surveys also showed that output in July rose 3.2% to 1.62 million tons.      

Malaysia palm oil Board (MPOB) specific data will be released on August 11. Since the United States is expected to yield a record high, and palm oil futures last month in a bear market. Due to oil prices, as an alternative to Palm oil pressure to increase. Netherlands cooperative banks pointed out that cuts the odds of El Nino phenomenon, coupled with the increase in global oilseed production will weigh on prices for at least four quarters ago.      

But Hiro CIMB Futures, Deputy Director Chai said consumption increase may offset production growth led the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. "Under the influence of drought in January and February, output in July the seasonal increase is not strong," DBS Vickers analyst Ben Santoso said by telephone. "Poor demand. Given the abundant supply, people actively looking for other vegetable oils. "Malaysia BMD crude palm oil futures tumbled on July 31 to 2,246 ringgit per tonne ($ 705), the lowest since August 12.      

The benchmark October crude palm oil futures contract closed down 0.4%, reported 2,258 ringgit a tonne. ** ** Oilseed supply data compiled by Bloomberg show that soybean oil this year than the average premium is $ 93 per ton of palm oil, far less than in 2013 from $ 244.      CBOT soyoil futures on August 4 fell to 35.63 cents a pound, the lowest price since October 2009, soybean futures also fell to $ 10.54 a bushel, the lowest since October 2010. United States Department of agriculture, United States soybean production will reach 3.8 billion bushels, all-time high boosted global stocks to 85.31 million tons. Australia Weather Bureau said July 29, about 50% chance occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon.      June the met Office thinks likely to reach 70%. Survey, Malaysia July 2% to 1.45 million tons of palm oil exports will be lower than in June. SGS ship survey institutions were of the view that exports in July fell 2.8% to 1.35 million tons, even need 12%.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 06, 2014, 08:48:04 PM
Malaysia Delays Full Implementation of B5 Biodiesel Mandate

Malaysia, the largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, delayed the nationwide implementation of its biodiesel mandate to the end of the year, said Douglas Uggah Embas, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister.

The B5 program will be completed by December instead of an original target of July, doubling average monthly consumption, Uggah said in an e-mailed response to Bloomberg questions. The delay was because construction of 15 blending facilities in the states of Sabah and Sarawak and the federal territory of Labuan in East Malaysia were taking longer than expected, he said.

Palm, the world’s most consumed cooking oil, has declined 16 percent in 2014 and slumped to the lowest level in a year in Kuala Lumpur today as the U.S. government predicts record global inventories of soybeans, used to make an alternative oil. Prices have also been pressured by the failure of Indonesia and Malaysia to boost use in biofuels, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., on June 26.

The government and the palm oil board are “monitoring the progress of the construction of the blending facilities and exploring ways to accelerate completion,” Uggah said. “Full implementation of the B5 program is expected to consume 500,000 tons of methyl ester annually.” The country is set to produce 19.5 million tons of palm this year, the government says.

Futures declined as much as 0.7 percent to 2,239 ringgit ($700) a ton today on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the lowest level since Aug. 12. News of the delay added to the bearish outlook for palm oil, said Chandran Sinnasamy, Kuala Lumpur-based head of trading at LT International Futures Sdn.

Missed Expectations

B5, which involves blending 5 percent of palm methyl ester with 95 percent of diesel petroleum, was completed in March in Peninsular Malaysia, Uggah said. Monthly usage will average 41,667 tons upon full implementation compared with 20,833 tons now, Uggah said. This will increase to 58,333 tons with the start of the B7 program in the first quarter, he said.

The government and the palm oil board are in discussions with engine manufacturers and automobile associations to get warranties for B7, he said.

Indonesia in September last year also boosted the amount of biodiesel blended with fuel to 10 percent from 7.5 percent and power plants had to blend 20 percent from January.

The country’s use of palm biodiesel in the first five months was roughly the same as in the same period a year earlier and full-year consumption will not increase, Mistry said at a conference in Mumbai in June. Domestic consumption of biodiesel is not as good as expected, Fadhil Hasan, executive director of the Palm Oil Association, told reporters on July 21.

Indonesia and Malaysia produce 86 percent of world supply.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 06, 2014, 08:50:36 PM
Palm oil reserves in Malaysia seen declining to three-year low

KUALA LUMPUR (Aug 6): Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the top supplier after
Indonesia, probably dropped to the lowest in more than three years in July
even as production increased.
Inventories lost 3.6 percent to 1.6 million metric tons from 1.66 million tons in
June, according to the median of seven estimates from planters, analysts and
traders compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the lowest level for reserves since
February 2011, according to Palm Oil Board data. Production climbed 3.2
percent to 1.62 million tons, the survey showed. The board is scheduled to
release the figures on Aug. 11.
Futures entered a bear market last month after the U.S. predicted a record
soybean crop. That pushed down soybean oil, increasing pressure on its
substitute palm. Reduced odds on El Nino and rising global oilseed output will
weigh on prices until at least the fourth quarter, Rabobank International says.
Higher consumption in Malaysia because of the Eid Muslim festival probably
countered increased output, said Hiro Chai, associate director at CIMB Futures
Sdn.
“Production isn’t really rising as much as it should be seasonally because of
the dryness that occurred in January and February,” Ben Santoso, an analyst
with DBS Vickers, said by phone in Singapore. “Demand isn’t going anywhere
either. People are actively switching to other vegetable oils given that there’s
plenty of supply out there.”
Futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur tumbled to 2,246
ringgit ($705) a ton on July 31, the lowest level since Aug. 12, and traded at
2,258 ringgit yesterday.
Oilseed Supplies
Soybean oil’s premium to palm averaged $93 a ton this year, compared with $244 in 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Soybean
oil in Chicago slumped to 35.63 cents a pound on Aug. 4, the lowest level since October 2009, as soybeans fell to $10.54 a bushel, the
lowest since October 2010.
Farmers in the U.S. will harvest 3.8 billion bushels of soybeans, boosting world inventories to a record 85.31 million tons, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture estimates. The odds of El Nino, which brings drought to Asia and heavy rains in South America, are about 50
percent after parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean cooled, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said July 29. The bureau had put the chances
at 70 percent in June.
Palm exports fell 2 percent from June to 1.45 million tons, the survey showed. Total shipments retreated 2.8 percent to 1.35 million tons
even as sales to the European Union climbed 12 percent, surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Sdn. says.
Export Demand
Shipments to Europe should further increase as palm’s discount to Brent in London, a crude oil benchmark, will boost demand from
biodiesel makers, said Alvin Tai, an analyst at RHB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur.
Dry weather in Peninsular Malaysia in mid-2012 and 2013, and the first quarter of this year will hurt yields in the last quarter or the
beginning of 2015 due to the lagged impact of water deficits on palms, Ling Ah Hong, director of Ganling Sdn., a Kuala Lumpur-based
consultant, said April 28.
Some planters rushed to harvest more fruits before the Eid holidays last week, that mark the end of the Muslim fasting month of
Ramadan, to make up for the loss in working hours, said Chai from CIMB Futures.

Written by Bloomberg
Wednesday, 06 August 2014 08:57
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 07, 2014, 06:11:28 PM
Palm Oil Prices About to Hit Rock Bottom

Last week, I discussed that a potential opportunity in the palm oil industry was brewing.

The substance is used in a variety of popular consumer products – from cooking oil and shortening, to soaps and cosmetics.

So demand for the commodity certainly isn’t going to end anytime soon.

Well, the latest activity in the palm oil market indicates that now could be the perfect time to jump on board.

If you’ve been waiting for the right time to gain exposure to the industry, now’s your chance! (Hint: The opportunity stems from a weather anomaly that’s wreaking havoc across the globe.)

Palm Oil About to Hit Bottom

Despite the obvious demand for the commodity, palm oil futures have been on a downward slope for the last five months.

Take a look at this daily chart of the November futures contract to see what I mean. It’s now trading close to 12-month lows – after reaching an 18-month high in March.

November Palm Oil Futures

What’s with the decline? A number of fundamental factors have put downward pressure on prices.
•To start with, there’s concern over demand from the world’s top-two importers, China and India – amid robust exports from Malaysia and Indonesia (which supply 86% of the world’s palm oil).
•The recent strength in the Malaysian ringgit has also dampened buying interest for the ringgit-priced palm feedstock.
•We’re seeing ample supplies of competing oils (such as soy oil). And palm oil’s price advantage over other edible oils is narrowing.
•Finally, the likelihood of the weather phenomenon, El Niño, hitting has cooled. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology puts the chances of this happening at about 50% – down from its 90% March prediction. El Niño is an abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean that causes drought in some areas and flooding in others. (Founder Robert Williams discussed how the absent El Niño event is at the root of California’s record drought.) Well, the event is also associated with drier weather in Asia, which would hit palm fruit harvests. So a lower probability of El Niño is reducing investors’ bullish bets.

I’m convinced, however, that a palm oil reversal is close at hand. Let’s look more closely at the facts to see why…

An Immediate Reversal on the Horizon

The recent uptick in palm oil production was, in part, due to early harvesting before plantation workers went on holiday for the Eid al-Fitr celebrations last week – marking the end of Ramadan.

Furthermore, we’re witnessing falling inventories in Malaysia – along with rising domestic demand in Indonesia.

Also, a key factor driving palm oil consumption is the escalating demand for biofuels. And Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate was raised in August 2013 to a minimum 10% biofuel in diesel from the previous 3% to 10% range. The mandate was doubled to 20% for the power industry.

To top it off, while the chances for El Niño (at 50%) are slimmer than previously thought, an event developing this year can’t be conclusively ruled out. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is more confident in an event occurring. It reports a 70% chance of an El Niño in summer and 80% during the fall and early winter.

All of these developments point to increased palm oil prices in the immediate future. Here are a few ways you can profit from the uptick…

Gaining Direct Access to Palm Oil Profits

Access to the palm oil markets is easier than one may think, and you don’t even need to go to Malaysia or Indonesia to trade it.

Palm oil futures trade on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in cash-settled, USD-denominated contracts benchmarking Malaysian palm oil. Futures are listed monthly – on the third, fourth, and fifth forward months – then alternate months going out 24 months.

Here’s what to look out for in the near term.

As for what this year’s El Niño has in store, all eyes will be focused on two dates…

On August 11, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release data on end-July palm oil trade statistics. And two cargo surveyors – Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance – will report palm oil export data from August 1 to August 10.

On August 12, the next official update from the Australian government on El Niño is expected to hit.

Any bullish news should resonate in the futures market almost immediately.

Good investing,

Shelley Goldberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 09, 2014, 09:39:38 AM
VEGOILS-Palm oil slides to 1-year low as higher production weighs

* Palm oil drops to 1-year low on production outlook

* Growers estimate output rose almost 7 percent in July (Updates closing prices)

By Naveen Thukral

SINGAPORE, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped to a one-year low on Friday with the market on track for a fifth week of declines in six as expectations of higher production pressured prices.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of growers, estimated that palm oil production in the world's second largest producer, rose 6.9 percent to 1.68 million tonnes in July, traders said. This is above a Reuters forecast of 4.9 percent growth.

The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 0.8 percent at 2,235 ringgit ($697) per tonne. Traded volume stood at 39,121 lots of 25 tonnes. Earlier in the session, it fell to 2,231 ringgit a tonne, the lowest since Aug. 12 last year.

"Production in July could exceed what has been estimated by the association," said one Kuala Lumpur-based trader. "We think it will be close to double-digit growth and at the same time fresh demand is lacking."

Malaysian palm oil output is likely to steadily rise in the months ahead, traders said

Industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, is due to release official data on end-July palm stocks, production and exports on Monday.

A Reuters survey pegged end-July stocks at a more-than-three-year low of 1.64 million tonnes, although market players warn that a surge in palm output will push up stockpiles in the following months.

Higher production of palm oil will add to global edible oil supplies with output of rival soybeans likely to climb to near-record level in the United States.

Favourable crop weather in the U.S. Midwest has also fuelled expectations that the U.S Department of Agriculture will raise estimates of soybeans in its monthly report next Tuesday.

Palm oil is expected to break a resistance at 2,268 ringgit per tonne and rise more to 2,298 ringgit, following the completion of a five-wave cycle, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

For a 24-hr palm oil chart analysis:

(http://i902.photobucket.com/albums/ac228/kftham/FCPO20140808105440.png) (http://s902.photobucket.com/user/kftham/media/FCPO20140808105440.png.html)

The U.S. soyoil contract for December fell 0.4 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange finished largely unchanged.

Brent crude oil rose by more than $1 towards $107 on Friday after the United States approved air strikes against Islamist militants in Iraq, raising concerns over the security of oil supplies from OPEC's second largest producer. ($1 = 3.2060 ringgit)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 11, 2014, 01:02:54 PM
MALAYSIA AUG. 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS 347,094 (-22.2%) TONS: INTERTEK
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 11, 2014, 01:07:01 PM
(BFW) MPOB Says Malaysia July Palm Oil Stocks 1.68m Tons; Est. 1 .6m
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
 BN 08/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS FALL 2.3% M/M: MPOB
 BN 08/11 04:32*MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.45M TONS; EST. 1.45M TONS 
 BN 08/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA JULY CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT RISES 6.1% M/M: MPOB 
 BN 08/11 04:31 *MALAYSIA JULY CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.67M TONS; EST. 1.62M 
 BN 08/11 04:31 *MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL STOCKS RISE 1.5% M/M: MPOB 
 BN 08/11 04:31 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JULY PALM OIL STOCKS 1.68M TONS; EST. 1.6M
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 11, 2014, 01:11:21 PM
MPOB Says Malaysia July Palm Oil Stocks 1.68m Tons; Est. 1.6m 2014-08-11 04:36:13.831 GMT

By Ranjeetha Pakiam     

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, rose 1.5% to 1.68m metric tons in July from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
 
• Output gained 6.1% to 1.67m tons, while exports dropped 2.3% to 1.45m tons
• NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 1.6m tons, production at 1.62m tons and shipments at 1.45m tons
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 12, 2014, 10:10:54 AM
Palm oil to test supports, rise

August 11, 2014:   
Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended sharply lower on Monday after a rise in end-stocks and a possible bumper soyabean crop looming large.

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia were 1.5 per cent higher with strong output further adding pressure on stocks, according to a monthly report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Cargo surveyor SGS estimated that exports during August 1-10 fell by almost 20 per cent compared with the previous month. CPO active month October futures are sharply lower after breaking key supports on the downside moving lower as expected.

As mentioned in the previous update, a close below MYR 2,245/tonne could see prices declining to 2,185-2,200 levels.

CPO futures need to overcome MYR 2,252 levels and close above it for any meaningful upward correction in the coming sessions.

Such a retracement could see prices testing 2,320-25 levels on the upside subsequently where it might find strong resistance again. Some of the near-term targets are at 2,135 followed by an extremely strong support at 2,095-97 levels.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to MYR 2,575-2,600/tonne materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,135 levels now.

RSI is in the oversold zone now indicating it is oversold and a possible upward correction in the offing.

The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at bearishness to be intact.

Only a crossover again above the zero line could hint at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test supports and then pullback again.

Supports are at MYR 2,165, 2,135 and 2,085. Resistances are at MYR 2,227, 2,252 and 2,325.

(The writer is the Director of Commtrendz Research. There is a risk of loss in trading.)

(This article was published on August 11, 2014)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: jat on August 12, 2014, 02:22:58 PM
Palm oil to test supports, rise

August 11, 2014:   
Malaysian crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended sharply lower on Monday after a rise in end-stocks and a possible bumper soyabean crop looming large.

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia were 1.5 per cent higher with strong output further adding pressure on stocks, according to a monthly report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Cargo surveyor SGS estimated that exports during August 1-10 fell by almost 20 per cent compared with the previous month. CPO active month October futures are sharply lower after breaking key supports on the downside moving lower as expected.

As mentioned in the previous update, a close below MYR 2,245/tonne could see prices declining to 2,185-2,200 levels.

CPO futures need to overcome MYR 2,252 levels and close above it for any meaningful upward correction in the coming sessions.

Such a retracement could see prices testing 2,320-25 levels on the upside subsequently where it might find strong resistance again. Some of the near-term targets are at 2,135 followed by an extremely strong support at 2,095-97 levels.

As mentioned earlier, prices met an intermediate wave target at MYR 2,135 and corrective decline to 2,345-50 levels, followed by a sharp third wave move to MYR 2,575-2,600/tonne materialised.

Price structures suggest a possible third wave move ending at 2,690 and a corrective, fourth wave with targets at 2,450 now. The fifth wave possibly ended at 2,898 and a corrective A-B-C in progress with an equality target now stretching to 2,135 levels now.

RSI is in the oversold zone now indicating it is oversold and a possible upward correction in the offing.

The averages in MACD are still below the zero line of the indicator hinting at bearishness to be intact.

Only a crossover again above the zero line could hint at resumption in the bullish trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test supports and then pullback again.

Supports are at MYR 2,165, 2,135 and 2,085. Resistances are at MYR 2,227, 2,252 and 2,325.

(The writer is the Director of Commtrendz Research. There is a risk of loss in trading.)

(This article was published on August 11, 2014)

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 13, 2014, 10:31:36 AM
Volatile CPO prices and higher stockpiles are likely to impact profits

PETALING JAYA: The fortunes of oil palm plantation companies in the second half of this year are uncertain given the volatile crude palm oil (CPO) prices amid escalating domestic palm oil stockpile, which is slated to re-visit the historic high of two million tonnes by year-end.

CPO futures is currently trading at a one-year low at RM2,190 per tonne level while the end-July palm oil stocks stood at 1.68 milion tonnes.

Based on historic records, the next few months is expected to see high production of CPO and analysts expect the stockpile to hit 1.8 million tonnes by the end of this month.

Analysts have pegged CPO price to trade between RM2,100 and RM2,400 per tonne for the rest this month.

“But nobody dares predict the price beyond the next three months because there could be some catalyst to increase demand such as the Government’s initiative to implement the nationwide bio-diesel mandate,” said an analyst.

The mandate is under the B-5 programme where 5% of palm oil methyl ester will be required to be added on diesel.

Among plantation companies, a mere RM100 increase in the CPO price per tonne could translate into additional “hefty” contributions to group profits.

Sime Darby Bhd had said that every RM100 per tonne change in the CPO price could result in an “addition or reduction of RM250mil” to its group profit.

While for Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), every RM100 change in the CPO price would result in an addition or reduction of RM100mil.

However, despite the hazy earnings outlook for planters in the second half of this year, Kenanga Research believes the upcoming quarter-two result season in end-August should not see any significant negative surprises for the plantation sector.

It expects most plantation companies’ second quarter earnings results due end of this month to meet consensus estimates.

“This is because the first half CPO price at RM2,633 per tonne was close to consensus average CPO prices at RM2,650 per tonne,” the research unit said in its latest plantation report.

“Additionally, we expect at least 20% earnings growth year-on-year (yoy) for planters due to better CPO prices (+11% yoy) and higher CPO production (+15% yoy).

“As a result, we do not expect any significant downside in planters’ share prices in the near term,” said Kenanga Research.

Kenanga Research has reiterated a neutral call on the plantation sector with both 2014-2015 average CPO price forecasts unchanged at RM2,500 per tonne.

Yesterday, most plantation stocks on Bursa Malaysia closed lower on bearish outlook with Kuala Lumpur Kepong 10 sen lower at RM23.70, while Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd lost two sen to RM3.97, Sime Darby Bhd eased two sen to RM9.49 and IOI Corp was unchanged at RM5.

Meanwhile, Singapore-based Rabobank food and agribusiness research and advisory head Pawan Kumar said CPO prices may be pressured due to subdued demand as well as the easy availability of other vegetable oils.

He said at a briefing here that domestic palm oil stocks could decline after October as palm oil traders did not like to hold on to inventory.

“We’re looking at RM2,400 to RM2,500 per tonne average for this year; now is the best time to buy,” Pawan said, adding that Rabobank had a “fairly neutral” view on CPO prices this year.

This is in contrast to soybean, where prices are expected to fall to US$1,020 per tonne in the fourth quarter from US$1,200 per tonne in the current quarter.

Pawan pointed out that plantation firms should keep an eye out for an El Nino alert this year as “this weather phenomenon would have a negative impact on production by 2%-15% next year.”

In the case of a severe El Nino occurrence, then this would be positive for CPO prices next year, he said.

Pawan expects CPO prices to trade in the range of RM2,600 for the first quarter next year and RM2,700 in the second quarter. CPO prices fell to the lowest year-to-date on Aug 11 to RM2,177 per tonne, an 18.13% drop.

Meanwhile, CIMB Research has projected CPO price to trade in the lower range of RM2,100-RM2,400 per tonne for the remainder of this month.

“We project palm oil stocks in Malaysia to begin their seasonal climb, rising 9% month-on-month to 1.84 million tonnes, driven by higher production and weaker exports due to competition from other edible oils,” said the research unit in its plantation report.

Over the past month, the key bearish factor, in the form of higher global oilseed supplies, had dampened soybean and rapeseed prices, which in turn, had depressed CPO prices as they competed for market share, said CIMB Research.

The bullish factors supporting CPO price have weakened as weather experts recently downgraded the probability of El Nino and biodiesel progress in Indonesia.

Furthermore, the research unit said: “There may be downside risk to our 2014 average price forecast of RM2,700 per tonne as average CPO price achieved in the first seven month of 2014 was only RM2,577 per tonne.”

Hence, CIMB Research believes the CPO price would need to stay attractive against other edible oils in order to boost exports so that palm oil stock levels in Malaysia and Indonesia will remain manageable.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 14, 2014, 09:54:29 PM
Palm slumps to five-year low

Palm oil extended losses to the lowest level since 2009 on concern that record global reserves of soybeans used to produce an alternative oil may curb demand for the commodity used in everything from food to biofuels.


Futures dropped as much as 2.8 per cent to RM2,115 (US$665) a metric tonne on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the lowest level since October 2009, before trading at RM2,131 at 4.42pm in Kuala Lumpur. Prices are down 20 per cent this year, heading for the third annual decline in four years.


Palm, the world’s most used cooking oil, entered a bear market last month as favorable weather in the US boosted the outlook for soybean crops estimated to be the largest on record. Soybeans, corn and wheat are trading near their lowest levels since at least 2010, cutting world food costs measured by the United Nations to a six-month low in July.


“The discount of palm to soybean oil is still very narrow and that will add more pressure on palm,” said Hiro Chai, associate director at CIMB Futures Sdn Bhd in Kuala Lumpur. “As palm production continues to rise until September, we’ll have further pressure” on prices, he said.


Soybean oil declined as much as two per cent to 33.62 cents a pound on the Chicago Board of Trade, the lowest level since September 2009. Soybeans slumped to US$10.3875 a bushel, the lowest since September 2010.


The spread between palm and soybean oil needs to widen to between US$120 and US$130 a tonne for palm to be attractive to users again, Chai said. Palm’s discount to soybean oil shrunk to about US$70 a tonne today from an average of US$244 in 2013, data compiled by Bloomberg show.


US farmers will harvest a record 3.816 billion bushels this year, compared with 3.8 billion (103.4 million tonnes) estimated in July, the US Department of Agriculture said on August 12. World inventories before the start of the 2015 Northern Hemisphere harvests will rise 28 per cent to a record 85.62 million tonnes, the agency estimates.


Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the biggest producer after Indonesia, increased last month from the lowest level since June 2013 as production rose more than expected. While stockpiles at 1.68 million tonnes were lower than the record of 2.63 million tonnes in December 2012, expectations of rising output adding to reserves may pressure prices, Chai said. Output is typically highest from July to October each year.


Production in Malaysia may reach a record 19.7 million tonnes to 19.9 million tonnes, while Indonesia’s output may total an all- time high of 30.5 million tonnes or more this year, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd. The two Southeast Asian producers together account for 86 per cent of world supplies.


Refined palm oil for January delivery fell 2.2 per cent to close at 5,440 yuan (US$884) a tonne on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the lowest since September 2013. Soybean oil slumped 3.2 per cent to end at 6,112 yuan, the lowest since March 2009.-- Bloomberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 15, 2014, 01:19:18 PM
Malaysia Aug. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 570,761(-15.25%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: SodaLite on August 15, 2014, 01:32:14 PM
my fren 50 acres palm tree sapling he said he rather let the sapling rotten bo..... palm oil industry really no value now.... plant rumput lagi can make landscape  :D
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 15, 2014, 01:50:47 PM
BMD crude palm oil futures rangebound in downlink

Dow Jones Singapore on August 15, Ambank said in a report on Friday expected Malaysia rangebound BMD crude palm oil futures Friday, or slightly higher, because price had slumped to five-year lows on Thursday, although, on the whole, due to weak oil prices and soybean harvest this year, sentiment remained on the air.      

A Kuala Lumpur, brokers say, is expected in the first half of August palm oil export data came as traders expected cautious trading is expected to temporarily support at 2,115 ringgit a tonne.      

On Thursday, the benchmark October crude palm oil futures contract closed down 2% to 2,133 ringgit a tonne. CBOT9 soybean oil contracts in electronic trading from roughly near the 33.53 cents per pound.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 16, 2014, 03:53:34 PM
CPO price war in the offing?

ANOTHER palm oil price war between top world producers, Malaysia and Indonesia is in the offing, says industry observers.

Early this month, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki) in an attempt to boost exports has demanded the Indonesian government to slash the refined bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm oil export duty to 0%. And, the Indonesian government is believed to be assessing the proposal.

Currently, Indonesia charges a tariff up to 12.5% on refined palm oil exports while Malaysia applies from 0% up to 8.5% duty on the export of similar products.

The Jakarta Post reported that Gapki made the demand following a significant drop in palm oil exports to India in the first half of this year. Indonesia’s outbound palm oil shipments to India plunged by 37%, its highest level, to 2.12 million tonnes from January to June.

 
 
 

Palm Oil Refiners Association chief executive officer Mohammad Jaaffar Ahmad tells StarBizWeek that for Indonesia to “mimic” Malaysia’s current zero refined palm oil export tax structure certainly spell bad news for local palm oil exporters and refiners.

“Any arbitrary decision by Indonesia to re-structure its palm oil export tax structure will undermine the stability of CPO prices vis-à-vis processed palm oil prices for both countries,” he adds.

In addition, further reduction in Indonesian processed palm oil duties could result in the widening (increase) of the tax differentials with Malaysian products.

“Malaysian palm oil exporters and refiners will be in the danger zone should the duty differential widens to more than 3%,” says Jaaffar, adding: “Once it widens by over 3%, Indonesian players will start having a big advantage in their cost of production (COP) at about US$30 per tonne onwards.”

So far this year, the tax differential is between 1.5 to 2%, which is good for Malaysian refiners and exporters to compete and also, provide a level playing field for both Malaysian and Indonesian players.

Back in 2012, the Indonesia’s COP advantage was around US$50 to US$60 per tonne, which makes it almost impossible for Malaysian refiners and exporters to compete globally especially in price-sensitive markets like India, Pakistan and China.

“So it is important for the Malaysian gazetted CPO FOB price to be all inclusive, flexible and transparent and importantly tracking the Indonesian CPO gazetted price,” he adds.

However, if the tax differential widens to 5.5% to 8%, which is equivalent to a production cost advantage of about US$55 to US$80 per tonne – a similar situation in 2011 and 2012 – Jaaffar expects that there will be another round of price wars between Malaysia and Indonesia, and “the sure loser is Malaysia.”

“The international palm oil prices will be dampen as both Malaysia and Indonesia are price takers and not price movers,” he points out.

Back in September 2011, Indonesia attacked the Malaysian palm oil industry by way of introducing a new palm oil export duty tax structure. The palm oil export tax duty of RBD palm olein in bulk was drastically slashed to 7% from 15%, but retained its CPO export duty at 15% to boost the export of its processed oils.

Jaaffar recalls that many local palm oil refiners were among those badly hit by the move.

“2012 was particularly a misery year as many Malaysian palm oil exporters are not able to compete with the low Indonesian palm oil export duty. For one whole year, we have no response on how to counter the situation.

“As a result, we lost almost all major export markets except for oleochemicals,” says Jaaffar adding that local palm oil industry suffered severe losses estimated at RM9bil in terms of palm oil export revenue in 2012.

Malaysia on Jan 1, 2013, however, countered the Indonesian palm oil export duty regime by lowering its export duty between 4.5% to 8.5% – which had been unchanged since 1970s – and also suspended all CPO duty-free export quota.

“Last year was indeed a recovery year whereby local palm oil exporter managed to gain back all our lost export markets in 2012. But unfortunately, in terms of exports revenue, we are still bleeding in 2013,” adds Jaaffar.

In 2013, Malaysia’s palm oil export revenue stood at RM61bil, down almost 20bil from RM80bil back in 2011.

“In terms of price, the palm oil market still has yet to fully recover from the after-effect of the Indonesian export duty structure.

“In fact, it was a lose-lose situation for both Indonesia and Malaysia in terms of export earnings for a duopolistic producers. Both countries produce about 85% of total palm oil production in the world. I am sure, the Indonesian are losing the same amount or value comparatively.

“Both Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil are price takers rather than price makers,” explained Jaafar.

Meanwhile, a market trader points out that the unilateral decision of Indonesia has practically destroy the price of CPO from the high average of RM3,219 in 2011 to RM2,371 in 2013, by about 25% or almost RM850 per tonne.

“If we compare with RBD palm olein, the differential percentage is much more compared with CPO, by almost RM1,000 per tonne.

Jaaffar says there is another misconception that the refiners would like to have cheaper CPO to have bigger refining margins.

“The truth is refiners are margin players. In fact, we make more money when the CPO price is high. In 2011, when the price of CPO is high, we are able to get a spread of RM288 per tonne but when the CPO price is low in 2014, we only managed to get a spread of RM154.”
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 20, 2014, 11:12:14 PM
MALAYSIA'S AUG. 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 822,026 (-5.4%) TONS: INTERTEK
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: Ļaughing Ģor on August 20, 2014, 11:14:21 PM
my fren 50 acres palm tree sapling he said he rather let the sapling rotten bo..... palm oil industry really no value now.... plant rumput lagi can make landscape  :D

My friend rubber tree also left untapped.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 21, 2014, 08:38:04 AM
My friend rubber tree also left untapped.

My father's rubber estate start do the replanting process since early this year.  :P
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 21, 2014, 02:44:08 PM
Pressure on palm oil price




SOURCE:
Bloomberg

{ JUMP TO
PREV STORY PUBLISHED: Aug 21, 2014 10:07am

UPDATED: Aug 21, 2014 10:07am
Pressure on palm oil price


KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 21:

Palm oil’s rout is set to deepen with prices extending declines to less than RM2,000 a metric tonne on ample global supplies of edible oils, according to Wayne Gordon, an analyst at UBS AG.

“The overall vegetable oil sector is effectively swimming in supply, or will be swimming in supply by the time we get to the end of the year,” Singapore-based Gordon said in a phone interview.

The most-active price on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell to RM2,045 yesterday, the lowest level since October 2009. It last traded below RM2,000 in March of that year.

Palm oil tumbled into a bear market last month as favourable weather in the US spurred forecasts for a record crop of soybeans, which can be crushed to provide an alternative oil.

Palm oil also slumped as demand for biofuels missed expectations, forecasts for an El Nino weather pattern, which can disrupt supplies, were scaled back, and the ringgit strengthened.

Lower prices will help keep global food costs in check, while hurting earnings at growers including Kuala Lumpur-based Sime Darby Bhd.

Palm oil needs to decline by more than soybean oil to attract increased demand from India, the world’s biggest importer, according to Gordon, who’s tracked the commodity since 2009. Further losses in soy oil may weigh on palm, he said.

Palm oil ended 0.9% lower at RM2,049 yesterday, taking losses this year to 23%.

Soybeans fell to US$10.35 (RM32.80) a bushel in Chicago, the lowest since September 2010, while soy oil traded at 32.76 cents a pound, the lowest since March 2009.

Palm oil’s discount to soyoil was at US$87.48 a tonne yesterday, compared with an average of US$244 last year, data compiled by Bloomberg shows.

The US soybean crop is expected to rise to a record 3.816 billion bushels this year, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said last week.

Losses in the oilseed’s price this week came as pod counts from an annual field tour across the world’s biggest producer signaled a bumper crop.

Reports from the first three days of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour showed higher tallies in Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa and South Dakota.

Malaysia, the largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, was delaying the nationwide implementation of a biodiesel mandate to the end of the year, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Douglas Uggah Embas said this month.

Indonesia’s use of palm biodiesel in the first five months of this year is roughly the same as in the same period a year earlier, and full-year consumption won’t increase, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd, said in June.

Malaysia’s ringgit climbed 3.2% this year, Asia’s strongest performance after Indonesia’s rupiah, as the Southeast Asian country’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in six quarters in the three months to June and current-account data beat estimates.

A stronger ringgit makes palm oil purchases more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Global ending stockpiles of palm oil will increase 10% to 8.7 million tonnes in 2014-2015, according to a forecast from the USDA.

Indonesia and Malaysia account for about 86% of the world crop, with the oil crushed from fresh-fruit bunches and harvested year-round.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 25, 2014, 02:41:23 PM
Malaysia Aug. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 986,931 Tons (-15.3%) : ITS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 27, 2014, 02:55:27 PM
Palm Seen by Mistry at Risk of Dropping Toward Output Costs

Palm oil may extend losses from the lowest level since 2009 until prices approach the cost at which growers in Asia produce the world’s most-consumed cooking oil, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.

“We know from experience that during bear markets, the price tends to gravitate toward the cost of production,” Mistry said in e-mailed replies to questions, without giving a price target or timeframe. Private-sector estates in Malaysia and Indonesia have costs of about 1,500 ringgit ($475) to 1,600 ringgit a metric ton, Mistry said. Futures in Kuala Lumpur closed at 2,012 ringgit a ton yesterday.

Palm entered a bear market last month on swelling global supplies of edible oils, including what is set to be a record soybean harvest in the U.S. Futures also slumped as demand for biofuels missed expectations and as forecasters reduced odds for the onset of El Nino, which can disrupt supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia, the biggest producers. The decline will help curb global food costs, while hurting earnings at growers.

“The world is awash with vegetable oils,” said Mistry, who’s traded oils for more than three decades and addresses conferences on the outlook for supply, demand and prices. “So, it is not difficult to guess where prices will end up.”

Lower Prices
Forecasts made in June would have to be scaled down, wrote Mistry, who is scheduled to speak in Shanghai on Sept. 15. In June, he said in Mumbai that palm could climb to 2,800 ringgit by December should an El Nino occur from mid-August. He also said palm may trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,500 ringgit for a few weeks, and risked rising to 2,600 ringgit if a dry period in Asia persisted.

Futures fell 7 percent in July and extended declines this month, dropping to 1,954 ringgit on Aug. 25, the lowest since March 2009. Prices rose 0.7 percent to 2,026 ringgit by the midday break in Kuala Lumpur today, reducing this year’s loss to 24 percent.

Indonesia and Malaysia account for 86 percent of global supplies, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Costs of output at one large state-linked plantation in Malaysia are as much as 1,800 ringgit a ton, Mistry wrote.

“The absence of El Nino has been a huge disappointment for palm bulls,” said Mistry. “However, we must always remember -- the seeds of the next bull market are sown in the current bear market.”

Rebound Forecast
UBS AG, Standard Chartered Plc and CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. are among forecasters seeing a price rebound, and futures trade higher in 2015 than for November. Palm may rally to 2,200 ringgit to 2,400 ringgit late in the fourth quarter as users rebuild reserves and biofuel demand rises on cheaper feedstock, Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB, said in an Aug. 24 report.

Prices may improve in the fourth quarter as inventories tighten, according to Abah Ofon, a Singapore-based analyst at Standard Chartered. Futures may recover to 2,200 ringgit over 12 months after dropping as low as 1,850 ringgit in the near term, UBS analysts led by Wayne Gordon said.

Global production of seven major oilseeds will be larger than forecast last month as consumption is set to trail output for a third year, Hamburg-based researcher Oil World said yesterday. Production will reach a record 507.2 million tons, 2.2 million tons higher than forecast five weeks ago and 18.1 million tons more than the previous all-time high last year.

“Palm oil production has also surprised us on the higher side,” said Mistry. Malaysia’s output climbed 6.6 percent to 10.7 million tons in the first seven months of the year from the same period in 2013, government data show. In June, Mistry said Indonesia may produce 30.5 million tons or more this year, as Malaysia’s output totals 19.7 million to 19.9 million tons.

Indonesia’s biodiesel usage may be 1.5 million tons to 2 million tons this year, missing industry expectations, Pawan Kumar, Rabobank International’s head of food and agribusiness research advisory, Southeast Asia and India, said on Aug. 12.

“A great amount of the current pain in the palm market has been inflicted by the failure of Indonesia to fulfill its proclaimed palm biodiesel mandate,” Mistry said. “When you promise the market something and then do not perform, the market punishes you.”

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 29, 2014, 01:55:49 PM
Indonesian palm oil export tax will be in September down to 9%

On Thursday, the world's number one producer and exporter of palm oil - Indonesia lowered the CPO export tax.
The Indonesian government's announcement shows that September's CPO export duty will be reduced to 9 percent, down from 10.5 percent in August.
Title: When oil palm is right for picking
Post by: bourse on September 01, 2014, 02:05:38 PM
http://www.thestar.com.my/Lifestyle/Features/2014/09/01/Colours-of-distinction-When-oil-palm-is-right-for-picking/


Currently, most of the palm fruit harvested in Malaysia and Indonesia are of the nigrescens variety. These fruits basically turn from black to dark purple at the apex of their ripening, hardly a drastic change visually.

However, in the rare virescens oil palm variety, fruits change colour from green to bright orange as it ripens, giving a much clearer indication to harvesters.

The current average palm oil yield is four tonnes of oil per hectare per year.

Taking the initial hectarage planted with the virescens to be around 20,000ha, even a 1% increase in yield can result in an additional 800 tonnes of oil a year, which brings an added value of RM2mil a year.

With growing world population (estimated at eight billion people within the next 15 years), there is mounting pressure for agricultural land to meet increasing demand for food worldwide. The MPOB team’s discoveries may help prevent wild habitats from being converted to more agriculture land.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 03, 2014, 01:24:18 PM
Malaysia’s Aug. Palm Oil Exports 1,282,597 (-5.01%) Tons, SGS Reports

Malaysia’s Aug. Palm Oil Exports 1,288,117 (-4.83%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 03, 2014, 05:07:36 PM
Averting Price War

WIN-WIN SITUATION: Malaysia’s palm oil tax gap must mirror that of Indonesia, says Poram chief

MALAYSIA must get on the dance floor and tango with Indonesia to avoid a price war, said Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) chief executive officer Mohammad Jaaffar Ahmad.

Last month, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association reportedly urged its government to slash refined palm oil export duty from 12.5 per cent to zero. This would further widen the export tax gap between its crude and refined oils.

Poram has urged the Malaysian government to be vigilant.

“The government must take a more dynamic approach. We cannot afford to repeat the mistake of staying on the sidelines when Indonesia makes a move,” said Jaaffar when asked about the prospects of Indonesia changing its palm oil tax structure.

“The last time Malaysia hesitated in 2012, we fell into a lose-lose situation, of which downstream players bled losses and planters in both countries suffered from a price war.”

Two years ago, Indonesia, in its efforts to boost exports, slashed its refined palm olein tax to seven per cent and retained its crude palm oil (CPO) duty at 15 per cent.

As a result, stakeholders throughout the palm oil value chain in Malaysia took a beating.

At that time, decades-old partnerships between millers and refiners in Malaysia broke down as refiners bled losses for every tonne of CPO refined.

Jaaffar said to stem losses, refiners unwound long-term contracts, which then slowed down purchases and resulted in a rapid build-up of CPO inventories.

This, in turn, caused CPO and crude palm kernel oil prices to tumble, affecting planters in Indonesia and Malaysia.

With cheap CPO and low duty export for packed products, Indonesian exporters sold their products at reduced prices, thus grabbing the market share from refiners in Malaysia.

When Indonesia moved and Malaysia took a wait-and-see approach in 2012, the local palm oil industry lost an estimated RM9 billion in export revenue.

“We cannot afford to remain static again. Ideally, it’s best for Malaysia’s tax gap between crude and refined palm oil to mirror that of Indonesia. If and when Indonesia widens its tax gap, Malaysia must also follow suit.

“We need to move in lockstep with Indonesia, like the way dancers hold hands and do the tango. That way, Malaysia’s refiners can continue to compete on a level playing field and hopefully, oil palm planters in both countries can avoid the dreaded price war.

“The yesteryear thinking of ‘We’re better than the other’ is over. In the spirit of the Asean Economic Community, it’s time for Malaysia and Indonesia to adopt a mutually beneficial approach of ‘We’re better together’.”

He said if Indonesia widens the tax gap between crude and refined oil by a certain percentage, Malaysia’s CPO tax must be immediately amended to match the gap. This will allow oleochemical and specialty fats producers here to also benefit from the competitive prices.

Palm oil prices have been on a downtrend for six months.

Last Friday, the third-month benchmark CPO futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange traded RM49 lower to close at RM1,930 a tonne, below the psychological RM2,000 level.

On the current downtrend, Jaaffar said it is wrong to assume that refiners and planters are engaged in a zero-sum game.

“It is a misconception that in times of falling CPO prices, refiners are happy at the expense of planters. As refiners, we are margin players. It doesn’t matter if palm oil prices are high or low.

“In fact, everybody will win if the price of CPO is high. That is the role of the refiners in supporting the price of CPO by being able to buy and process every drop of CPO in the country,” he added.

--New Straits Times
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 04, 2014, 11:43:12 PM
Malaysia's Aug palm stocks seen at 7-month high as output picks up

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil stocks at the end of August likely jumped to their loftiest in seven months as higher output due to crop-friendly weather outstripped poor export demand, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday.

 Rising stockpiles at the world's No.2 producer of the tropical oil could further drag on benchmark Malaysian prices that have already dropped 25% this year and are currently mired near five-and-a-half-year lows.

 The median survey of five planters, traders and analysts estimate August inventories in Malaysia rose 16.4% from a month ago to 1.96 million tonnes, their highest since January.

 Poll respondents said the rise in stockpiles was due to good weather that encouraged fruit formation as well as better harvesting activity than July as plantation workers returned from their holidays for the Muslim Eid al-Fitr festival.

 The poll showed that output likely rose 15% from a month ago to 1.92 million tonnes in August.

 "There has been a very strong rebound throughout Malaysia for August production," said an official at a plantation firm with estates in Malaysia and Indonesia.

 "Muslim employess returning after holidays, dry weather vanishing and much better rainfall, together with good sunshine hours, has made it a bumper crop throughout Malaysia."

 The poll participants pegged Malaysian palm oil exports at 1.35 million tonnes for August, down 6.7% from July.

 Latest cargo surveyor data show palm oil exports fell about 5% in August, recovering from steeper losses recorded earlier in the month, as a surge in demand from India helped offset weaker imports by China and Europe.

 LOCAL CONSUMPTION

 The median figures from the survey implied domestic consumption in August of about 303,624 tonnes, above the average range between 150,000 and 180,000 tonnes.

 FACTORS TO WATCH

 Forecasts for bumper supplies of rival edible oils and for a bigger Southeast Asian palm output pushed the benchmark palm contract below 2,000 ringgit at the end of August - when prices posted their biggest monthly drop since September 2012.

 Earlier this week, palm prices plunged to RM1,914 (US$602) per tonne - their lowest since early 2009.

 "Let us face the reality that palm output is gaining pace to coincide with the already-spillover supply of global oilseeds. It looks like a perfect storm," said CIMB Futures analyst Hiro Chai in Kuala Lumpur.

 Planters and traders added that crop-friendly weather could pave the way for even bigger palm yields in September and push up stockpiles to above two million tonnes.

 Bigger supply of soybeans for crushing would weaken prices of soyoil and turn price-sensitive buyers away from palm oil.

 Chai added that as competition between edible oils stiffens, palm oil will have to widen its discount to rival soy oil in order to attract a bigger share of global demand.

 Refined palm olein currently trades at around aUS $90 discount to soy oil.

 "Unless palm price correction has reached a level where there is US$150 per tonne discount to soy oil, we shall not see palm prices appealing enough to compete with European rapeseeds and American soy," Chai said. - Reuters
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 04, 2014, 11:54:37 PM
Palm oil prices if less than RM2000 on October, zero export duties

(4th in Kuala Lumpur) Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOC) pointed out that, if the palm oil price below RM 2000 per tonne level, the Government in October, is expected to be no introduction of palm oil export tax.  Malaysian Palm Oil Association President Datuk Li yaozu in 2014, after the palm-oil industry-led Forum to the media, said, if the palm oil prices remain at the current level, forecast in October, the operators will not need to pay any Palm oil export tax. In addition, Indonesia in September lowered the export duty to 9%, August's palm oil export duty is 10.5%. Malaysia's September export tax for 4.5%.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 10, 2014, 01:56:18 PM
Malaysia August Palm Oil Stockpiles 2.05m Tons, MPOB Reports

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 BN 09/10 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA AUG. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.44M TONS
 BN 09/10 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA AUG. PALM OIL OUTPUT 2.03M TONS
 BN 09/10 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA AUG. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.05M TONS


+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Malaysia August Palm Oil Stockpiles 2.05m Tons, MPOB Reports
2014-09-10 04:42:38.556 GMT


By Niluksi Koswanage
     Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia,
world’s second-largest producer, rose 22% to 2.05m metric tons
in Aug. from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in
statement today.
  * Output gained 22% to 2.03m tons, while exports dropped 0.4%
    to 1.44m tons
  * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories
    at 1.95m tons, production at 1.88m tons and shipments at
    1.38m tons
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 11, 2014, 09:37:41 AM
Malaysia's End-August Palm-Oil Stocks 2.1 Million Tons, Highest in 17 Months


SINGAPORE--Malaysia's end-August palm oil stockpiles hit their highest levels in 17 months, rising 22% from end-July to 2.1 million metric tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Wednesday.

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Palm production also rose 22% in August from a month ago to hit 2.0 million tons.

Meanwhile, exports were flat at 1.4 million tons, the board said.

Palm-oil exports have been under pressure due to prospects of an abundant soybean crop this year, which makes soybean oil prices attractive. Supply of other oilseeds have also been healthy.

Malaysia late last week said it would waive an export tax on crude palm-oil for the months of September and October to help stem a sharp decline in prices.

The following are details of the August crop data and revised numbers for July, issued by MPOB:

                            August         July      Change
                                                     On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output     2,031,754     1,665,661    Up 22.0%

Palm Oil Exports          1,437,452     1,443,560    Dn  0.4%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports      70,973        75,117    Dn  5.5%
Crude Palm Oil Imports        2,523         7,725    Dn 67.3%

Closing Stocks            2,054,008     1,684,732    Up 21.9%
Crude Palm Oil            1,134,307       895,352    Up 26.7%
Processed Palm Oil          919,701       789,380    Up 16.5%

(All figures are in metric tons)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 11, 2014, 09:39:44 AM
Malay palm export jump stems blow from stocks data

Palm oil futures tempered losses after export data showed Malaysian exports surging so far this month, following the scrapping of export levies, reducing the blow from a separate report showing inventories at a 17-month high.

Palm oil futures dropped temporarily below 2,000 ringgit a tonne in Kuala Lumpur, falling 2%, after the Malaysia Palm Oil Board revealed that Malaysian inventories of the vegetable oil – in crude and processed form combined – had hit 2.05m tonnes last month.

That was up 22% on July's figure – the highest month-on-month increase since 2012 – and represented the highest inventories since March last year.

The figure was also above market expectations for stocks of 1.96m tonnes.

Tax axed

However, futures recovered all but 1 ringgit of their losses, ending at 2,033 ringgit a tonne, as investors digested separate statistics, from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services showing a spike in Malaysian palm exports so far this month.

Shipments for the first 10 days of September, at 487,955 tonnes, were 41% higher than in the same period of August , a reflection of Malaysia's decision to scrap export taxes in an effort to support what is a key industry for the country, the second-ranked palm oil producer and exporter, after Indonesia.

Malaysia's government, which had previously proposed a 4.5% level for September, has ditched taxes for this month and next, and said that it will assess later whether duties should be withheld for further months too.

'Extremely encouraging'

The Intertek data were termed "extremely encouraging" by Edward Hugo, analyst at London broker VSA Capital.

"It is clear that the lower prices and the recent removal of Malaysian export tax for September and October are having an impact," he said, adding that "we expect this to continue".

Indeed, Mr Hugo voiced the prospect that a drop in palm oil futures last week to a five-year low of 1,914 ringgit a tonne may have marked a nadir.

"The last few days have seen a slight uptick in pricing and share prices of South East Asian-listed palm oil producers have been positively impacted.

"This may be an indication that we have reached the bottom in the palm oil pricing downturn."

Production record

Exports last month dropped 0.4% month on month to 1.44m tonnes, the weakest August figure since 2010, if dropping less than the market had expected, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed.

However, production hit a record 2.03m tonnes, rising by 22% from July, a far bigger increase than the market had expected, and up 17.1% year on year.

Malaysian palm oil output, which influential analysis group Godrej sees hitting a record 19.7m-19.9m tonnes this year, is so far running 8.1% ahead of last year's production.

However, some believe that Malaysian output, which typically peaks in September-October, will see an unusually large late-year seasonal decline, a hangover from dryness early in 2014.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 13, 2014, 10:14:49 PM
Open interest on palm oil futures soars as industry, specs bet

The volume of open positions in Malaysian palm oil futures jumped to a record high this week, suggesting the market may be bottoming out after falling to its lowest price in more than five years. Palm oil, which has lost almost a quarter of its value this year, dropped to RM1,914 a tonne last week, the lowest since March, 2009, on expectations of near-record world vegetable oil supplies and slowing demand. But prices have since rebounded to above RM2,050 after the government scrapped export taxes on the oil for September and October in a bid to boost shipments and curb rising stockpiles.

The tax cut also triggered a wave of ownership transfer and position shuffling, with open interest on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange climbing to an all-time high of 287,859 contracts on Wednesday and traded volume last week of nearly 70,000 lots, double the daily average. Open interest refers to the total number of active or outstanding contracts, reflecting the flow of money into a market. Traders say there are a number of reasons behind the upturn in participation. Some plantation companies, worried that palm oil prices may decline below the cost of production at RM1,700 a tonne, have sold part of their output in the futures market while profits are still attainable, traders said. At the same time, refiners have stepped up buying crude palm oil (CPO) to lock in supplies after the government exempted the commodity from export taxes. "Some participants want to lock in prices as they view them as cheap – these are refineries, importers and investors, so we are seeing more people who are long in this market," said Alan Lim, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur. "The demand from overseas investors has increased after Malaysia abolished the export tax." As a direct impact of the tax exemption, Malaysian palm oil exports for September 1-10 rose around 40% from a month ago, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance.

Palm oil is widely used as a cooking oil as well as a renewable fuel, so recent gyrations in the price spread between it and substitute products such as soybean oil and gas oil have also triggered an uptick in interest. "Some of the spreads between palm oil and other vegetable oils or gasoil are so wide now that you might get speculators taking reasonably large positions, given the dislocation in palm oil prices relative to everything else," said one Melbourne-based fund manager. He declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak with media. "Energy guys are certainly looking at it and saying our positioning in and around that market should be four times bigger because your downside from that level is not that much but your upside from that price is quite substantial." The spread between Malaysian crude palm oil and gasoil quoted in Singapore widened to a 6-year high of around US$260 (RM832.35) a tonne in August from US$62 a tonne earlier in the year. Similarly, the gap between palm oil and soybean oil prices grew to more than US$90 a tonne in late August from around US$40 in the middle of that month as palm oil values dropped more than soy oil prices. But since September 1, palm oil prices have risen more than 5% compared to a roughly 2% decline in soyoil.

A tendency for palm oil prices to rally over the final quarter of the year as seasonal demand picks up and production drops has also prompted increased ownership interest. Malaysian palm oil futures have finished the fourth quarter on a positive note for over two decades, with prices notching up a gain of almost 15% in October-December last year. – Reuters, September 12, 2014.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 13, 2014, 10:15:39 PM
Palm oil futures drift higher

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up to touch their highest in over three weeks on Friday, with prices recording a second straight weekly gain thanks to firm soyoil markets overseas and a surge in crude palm oil export demand.

A weaker Malaysian ringgit, which dipped 0.3 per cent this week, also stoked some buying interest for the ringgit-denominated palm feedstock.

Despite August end-stocks in the world’s No.2 producer swelling to a 17-month high of 2.05 million tonnes, palm prices increased 2.9pc this week, largely helped by a jump in exports between Sept. 1-10.

The benchmark November contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose to 2,088 ringgit on Friday, its highest intra-day since Aug. 19, before settling at 2,084 ringgit ($652) per tonne at day’s close, up 0.8pc.

Total traded volume stood at 41,698 lots of 25 tonnes, above the average 35,000 lots. Technical indicators looked positive. Palm oil is expected to rise to 2,142 ringgit per tonne, as it has cleared resistance at 2,055 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Forecasts of bigger supplies of rival oilseeds, however, kept trade choppy and caused palm prices to slip to 2,051 ringgit in early Friday trade, as concerns of an edible oil supply glut continued to hang over the market. The US Department of Agriculture estimated the US soybean crop at a record 3.91 billion bushels, up 19pc on the year and above trade estimates averaging 3.88bn.

Published in Dawn, September 13th, 2014
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 15, 2014, 11:17:05 PM
Malaysia’ Sep. Palm Oil Exports 750,425 (+31.48%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 22, 2014, 11:08:06 PM
Malaysia's Sept. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 998,689 (+26%) Tons: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 27, 2014, 12:14:44 AM
MALAYSIA'S SEPT. 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,286,901 (+34.6%) TONS: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 28, 2014, 10:11:30 PM
UPDATE 1-Malaysian palm oil prices to rise 8 pct by Feb 2015 - LMC analyst James Fry



* Palm oil yields to drop in coming months on lower price

* Inventory will start falling from November onwards

* Soybean area in Brazil could fall due to price fall (Adds quote, details)

By Rajendra Jadhav

MUMBAI, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil prices are likely to rise nearly 8 percent to 2,350 ringgit a tonne by February 2015 as a reduction in inventories and lower yields offset an expected drop in crude oil prices, a top industry analyst said on Saturday.

"In oil palm, you will see lower fertiliser applications and longer gaps between harvesting rounds. The result will be some drop in output," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, told the Globoil India conference in Mumbai.

"On top of the fall that would occur if yields simply reverted to normal after a year characterised by generally good weather."

Malaysian palm oil futures settled at 2,177 Malaysian ringgit ($668.40) per tonne on Friday, after hitting a five-year low at 1,914 ringgit on Sept. 2.

Forecasting palm oil price to rise to 2,350 ringgit, the London-based analyst assumes the price of Brent crude will drop to $90 per barrel until February. Brent is now around $97 a barrel, after hitting a two year low of $95.60 earlier this week.

If Brent crude drops to $85 a barrel, then the crude palm oil price could trade around 2,225 ringgit per tonne in February.

"Crude oil prices will ease, as supplies continue to grow and eventually U.S. interest rates rise. This sets the floor (for vegetable oils)," Fry said.

The palm oil price could jump over 13 percent to 2,465 ringgit in February if crude oil price remain at $95.

Vegetable oil prices move in sync with crude oil prices due to its rising use as a biofuel, he said. Lower crude oil prices make use of biofuel less attractive.

The competition between leading palm oil producers to export more tropical oil will help reduce stockpiles, which would start falling from November, Fry said.

Malaysia, the world's second biggest palm oil producer, has allowed duty free exports of crude palm oil for September and October, and rival top producer Indonesia responded with the same export incentive from October.

Both Malaysia and neighbour Indonesia set export taxes on a monthly basis. In August, Malaysia's export duty for crude palm oil was 5 percent, while Indonesia has set its September rate at 9 percent compared to 10.5 percent in August.

Fry said the sharp drop in soybean prices is unlikely to hurt planting in leading producer Argentina, but in Brazil some farmers could reduce their planting area.

"In the new soybean areas deep inside Brazil, freight costs to the coast have wiped out profits, and I would expect at the very least to see lower input use, but also probably some area reductions," he said.

U.S. soybeans notched a fresh four-year low on Friday amid ideal weather conditions for record harvests in the Midwestern crop belt, while new highs in the dollar made the supplies less competitive in global markets. (Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Michael Perry)

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 28, 2014, 10:12:20 PM
Palm oil to hit new 5-1/2 year low at 1,900 ringgit-analyst Mistry


(Reuters) - Palm oil prices are likely to fall nearly 13 percent to hit a new 5-1/2-year low of 1,900 ringgit ($583.36) per tonne on higher output and sluggish demand, but losses could be restricted to 2,000 ringgit if the Malaysian currency depreciates sharply, leading analyst Dorab Mistry said.

Malaysian palm oil futures settled at 2,177 ringgit ($668.40) per tonne on Friday, after hitting a 5-1/2-year low at 1,914 ringgit on Sept. 2.

"Palm oil today is less competitive than it was last year as well as in June this year. Its discount to soya oil FOB (free-on-board) Argentina and to sun oil FOB Black Sea has been narrowing," Mistry said in his presentation at the Globoil India conference on Sunday.

"At this current price structure demand will gravitate towards soft oils and away from palm. We must remember we are almost into the winter season in the northern hemisphere, which is the main market for palm oil."

Demand for the tropical oil usually slows in winter because it clouds in lower temperatures.

"If the US dollar gets too strong and the ringgit weakens too much, it is conceivable that the local CPO price will be 2,000 ringgits, with an exchange rate of 3.4 to 3.5 ringgits to the dollar," he said.

The ringgit settled at 3.2575 against the dollar on Friday.

Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at India's Godrej Industries, said his price forecast for crude palm oil was made assuming that Brent crude would trade in a range of $95-$110 per barrel. Energy prices are critical in determining bio-diesel demand.

Brent is now around $97 per barrel after hitting a two-year low of $95.60 last week.

Mistry also said palm oil stockpiles would keep rising, and could peak in December, due to higher production in the top two producing countries, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The higher output cycle in Malaysia, the world's second-biggest palm oil producer, has been intact and its output could reach 19.8 million to 20 million tonnes in 2014. Top producer Indonesia's output could exceed 30.5 million tonnes, he said.

"A bottom can be picked only after we have a better idea of October production and of Brazilian weather," he said.

Farmers in Brazil and Argentina are likely to switch to soybeans from corn this year, he said. "If weather and rainfall in Brazil and subsequently in Argentina are normal, we could see new lows in soybean prices around January 2015," Mistry said.

U.S. soybeans notched a fresh four-year low on Friday amid ideal weather conditions for record harvests in the Midwestern crop belt, while new highs in the dollar made the supplies less competitive in global markets.

Most-active CBOT November soybeans eased 1.3 percent, or 12-1/2 cents, to $9.10-1/4 per bushel, the lowest level since February of 2010 on a continuous chart.

Edible oil imports by India, the world's biggest buyer, are expected to rise by about 500,000 tonnes to 12.1 million tonnes in 2014/15 year starting from November, Mistry said. (1 US dollar = 3.2570 Malaysian ringgit) (Editing by Paul Tait)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 30, 2014, 10:12:16 PM
Malaysia September Palm Oil Exports 1,494,371 Tons (+16.5%), SGS Reports
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 30, 2014, 10:24:21 PM
Malaysia's September CPO, refined palm oil exports jump 16% on month to 1.5 million mt


Malaysia's crude and refined palm oil exports rose 16.3% month on month to 1,497,828 mt in September, data from cargo surveyor Intertek released Tuesday showed.

Exports to Europe surged by 57.76% to 260,140 mt, and to India by 11.46% to 560,180 mt.

The export data was within market expectations. Malaysia had scrapped export taxes on CPO on September 4 in a bid to arrest a decline in prices, which had fallen to five-year lows, thereby making CPO and refined palm products attractive to overseas buyers.

Exports of CPO increased by 12.9% to 562,090 mt, and shipments of refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil shot up 46.7% to 104,920 mt compared to a month ago, the data showed
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 30, 2014, 10:25:23 PM
Palm rises to 1-1/2 month high, heads for biggest monthly gain since April 2009

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures rose to their highest in one-and-a-half months on Tuesday and were headed for their biggest monthly rise in more than five years as strong export demand and gains in Chinese soyoil markets lifted sentiment.

Despite the swift recovery in palm prices this month, underlying concerns about swelling oilseed supplies capped the rally and set palm prices for its biggest quarterly drop in two years.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for September rose 16.3 percent from a month earlier to 1,497,828 tonnes, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said, thanks to robust demand from India, China and Europe.

The recovery in export demand would help prevent another jump in inventories in the No.2 producer, traders said.

"The market is holding very well on the back of exports and the Dalian which is up a bit," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "It's in a trading range between 2,170 and 2,250 ringgit."

"But most commodity prices are at the doldrums, especially the whole grain complex. I don't think palm oil will be spared."

The benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose to 2,220 ringgit in early trade, the highest since Aug. 11, before settling at 2,216 ringgit ($677) per tonne at the midday break, a 1.3 percent gain.

Palm prices have gained nearly 15 percent this month and are heading for their biggest monthly gain since April 2009, after plunging to a more than five-year low of 1,914 ringgit early September.

The tropical oil, however, has lost 8.6 percent in the third quarter of this year and is facing its biggest quarterly loss since 2012.

Total traded volume stood at 17,593 lots of 25 tonnes each, above the usual 12,500 lots.

Technicals indicate palm oil may climb to a resistance at 2,224 ringgit, a break above which will lead to a further gain to 2,262 ringgit, according to market analyst Wang Tao. He added that the first support is at 2,163 ringgit and the second at 2,125 ringgit.

Chicago soybeans eased and were on track for their biggest quarterly loss in six years, with a more than 34 percent drop, on pressure from mounting US supplies and a strengthening dollar.

Higher supplies of soybeans for crushing would drag on soyoil prices and narrow palm's discount to the rival edible oil, and could potentially prompt buyers to switch over food and fuel needs to soy.

In vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract for December fell 0.7 percent in early Asian trade. The most active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange gained 1.2 percent.

Market players will also be keeping a close watch on Malaysia's palm oil inventories in September, after stocks jumped 22 percent to 2.05 million tonnes at end-August.

A recovery in export demand in September after Malaysia scrapped its export duties on the crude grade raised hopes that stockpiles would not continue to surge.

"End stocks are very important -- it could be marginally higher, or we could see a drawdown in September," the trader added.

Indonesia, as expected, also removed its crude palm oil export tax for October.

In other markets, Brent crude futures edged back down towards $97 a barrel on Tuesday because of ample supplies, a lacklustre global economy and the strengthening of the dollar to a four-year peak against a basket of major currencies.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 07, 2014, 10:33:34 PM
Zero duty boosts CPO prices

THE impact from the imposition of zero export duty on crude palm oil (CPO) by Malaysia, and more recently Indonesia, has been gradually reflected in the current CPO price, which has gained some ground after falling to a five-year low last month.

In fact, international commodity trader Dorab Mistry told a Global Oils conference in Mumbai last week that for CPO futures to regain its competitiveness, the prices will need to drop to RM1,900 per tonne to revive consumption from major buyers.

Hence, the removal of CPO export duty is meant to make palm oil more competitive, he points out.

Malaysian Palm Oil Council chairman Datuk Lee Yeow Chor concurs that the effect of Malaysia and Indonesia’s recent policies to exempt CPO export duty will be positive on CPO prices going forward.

 
 
 

He is also optimistic that the CPO prices would rise towards year-end and next year.

“The CPO price, which has fallen to a five-year low just slightly above RM1,900 per tonne last month, has now increased by about 15% to an average of RM 2,230 per tonne.

He describes the duty exemption would result in a level playing field as well as a healthy competition between Malaysia and Indonesia, being the world’s largest palm oil producers.

The zero export duty on CPO by Malaysia could help increase the export volume of CPO, says Lee who expects a steady demand for palm oil by China given the upcoming Chinese New Year festival.

On the other hand, he points out that the increase in the export volume of CPO would result in a decline in the export volume of refined palm oil.

He believes that this is due to the negative refining margins among the palm oil refining industry players.

According to Lee, Malaysia need to be careful that there is a certain balance in maintaining the export volume between CPO and the refined palm oil.

Meanwhile, Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) chief executive officer Datuk Dr Makhdzir Mardan describes the recent exemption on Malaysia’s export duty on CPO for September and October this year as a reprieve for CPO producers and exporters.

“Particularly for the upstream stakeholders, in view of the anticipated peak CPO crop in October-November.

“This near-term measure will certainly help to alleviate the escalating end-month stocks towards the end of the year,” adds Makhdzir.

On the flip side, he expects the palm oil industry to experience the same phenomenon of peak production during the last quarter of the year with the peak crop months and high carryover stocks at the end of the year.

Towards the end of every year, Sabah and Sarawak are faced with the situation of inadequate infrastructure and logistics as well as the lack of availability of vessels for shipments of both crude and processed palm oils, in view of the wintering months and the high demand for crude petroleum products, hence consequently leading to “very high” carrying palm oil stocks, explains Makhdzir.

The situation of high stocks in mills and refineries in East Malaysia during the peak crop months is inevitable and coupled with the slow off take towards the end of the year; the industry is seriously hampered especially for the smallholders.

The slow off-take will also result in the slowdown in reception of CPO by refineries.

“It was during such times that palm oil mills in East Malaysia are not able to accept FFB from third parties when their storage tanks are full.

“The non-acceptance of FFB by millers would lead to no income and FFB being left to rot in the estates.

“The quality deterioration would set in and all the above would pose as a setback to the industry, as a whole,” he adds.

While the duty exemption will encourage CPO exports and helped ease the high carrying over stocks, which is the main determinant in pressuring prices, Makhdzir says there needs to be a more assertive policy instrument that can serve as a dynamic mechanism and long term strategy which will benefit the palm oil industry and the economy of the country. “The primary strategy here should be stock management.”

He points out that a more proactive and assertive biodiesel initiative for renewable energy policy is expected to serve as an instrument for a positive change to the policy of CPO excess stock management system.

Seemingly, the duty exemption may achieve its objective for September.

For October, in view of the current price development, Makhdzur says it is known by international palm oil buyers that the duty will be nil as “it would fall below the threshold price of RM2,250 per tonne.”

The international palm oil market is a continuous and on-going trade and we are all aware that European buyers buy far ahead while other consuming countries do buy at least one to three months ahead, for example, India for the Deepavali festival.

In addition, the nomination of vessels is not on an “available when required basis”.

Therefore, while there is export duty exemption for September and October but “there may not necessary be vessels availability during this period,” adds Makhdzir.

“As such, the palm oil industry players may be unable to capitalise on these opportunities. Therefore, a comprehensive approach is needed to address this excess stockpile issue which has become a permanent feature to the palm oil industry.”

He believes that the biodiesel policy can mop up the perennial excess CPO stockpiles, and that it is an opportunity for a solution.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 08, 2014, 11:30:20 PM
Palm up for 3rd day on hopes for weaker output, but crude’s fall caps gains

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures stretched their winning streak into a third day on Wednesday, as the ringgit slackened and as investors expected output to drop this month, although a fall in crude prices hampered gains.

Planters and traders say palm oil output in No.2 grower Malaysia may ease in October as wet weather delays harvesting and crimps oil extraction rates from fresh fruit, indicating that production growth could have already peaked in August.

"The market is drudging along with mixed sentiments. The bullish factors are the weaker ringgit, lower output, and weather vagaries in November and December," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

But worries of bigger competition from the huge US and South American soybean crop alongside "anaemic" food and fuel demand during the northern hemisphere winter weighed on the tropical oil.

"With these factors, the market will remain sideways until more is known about MPOB's data," the trader added.

Brent crude futures fell below $91 a barrel on Wednesday to their lowest since June 2012, holding to a months-long tumble in prices as lower economic growth forecasts raised new concerns about global oil demand amid rising US inventory levels.

By the midday break, the benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged up 0.8 percent to 2,198 ringgit ($671) per tonne.

The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.52 percent to trade at 3.276 per US dollar on Wednesday, making the ringgit-priced palm feedstock cheaper for international buyers.

Total traded volume stood at 20,022 lots of 25 tonnes each, nearly double the average 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed palm oil is expected to test resistance at 2,224 ringgit per tonne, with a good chance of breaking above this level and rising more to 2,262 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Official data on stocks, output and exports for end-September will be released by industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), on Friday.

A Reuters poll had pegged palm oil stocks in Malaysia to hold steady at 2.05 million tonnes at end-September, as a removal of export taxes did not boost shipments as much as initially expected.

The survey estimates that crude palm oil production in September fell 8 percent to 1.87 million tonnes, weakening after August's surge of 22 percent to 2.03 million tonnes.

Palm oil output may continue to fall in October due to the wet weather, industry players said.

The Malaysian Meteorological Department said the current "inter-monsoon season", marked by frequent thunderstorms in the afternoon, will likely carry on until early or mid-November before the wetter northeast monsoon unfurls.

Palm output typically drops in the wet season towards the end of the year as heavy rains and floods complicate harvesting and transportation of fruit to mills.

In other competing vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract for December shed 0.2 percent in early Asian trade. The most active January soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange edged up 0.1 percent after reopening from the one-week National Day holiday.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 09, 2014, 08:54:35 PM
Palm prices to average RM2,300-2,400 in Q4

Palm oil prices are expected to average RM2,300-2,400 per tonne in the fourth quarter this year, according to the managing director of Malaysia's Sime Darby Bhd, the world's top oil palm planter by land size. Prices of the tropical oil should stabilise due to the strong festive demand at the end of the year, Franki Anthony Dass said on Thursday at a press conference. Benchmark palm oil prices had slumped around 27% in the first eight months of the year and dropped to a more than five-year low of RM1,914 (US$591.47) per tonne in early September amid a global glut of edible oils.
Futures have recovered around 14% since then to around RM2,173 now. For 2015, prices of the tropical oil are expected to climb up to between RM2,500-2,600, the executive said. Earlier in the day, Sime Darby said it would offer 1.073 billion pounds (RM5 billion) to buy smaller producer New Britain Palm Oil Ltd. – Reuters, October 9, 2014.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 11, 2014, 01:14:44 PM
Malaysia End-September Palm Oil Stocks Rise, Exports Surge

SINGAPORE--Malaysia's palm oil stockpiles rose to an 18-month high at the end of September, although exports surged 13% from August, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Board Friday. Production fell 6.6% from a month earlier.

The sharp rise in exports was likely due to an export tax waiver on crude palm-oil shipments for September and October, as authorities seek to reduce stockpiles amid a price decline.

Palm-oil exports have been under pressure due to prospects of an abundant soybean crop this year, which makes soybean oil prices attractive. Supply of other oilseeds have also been healthy.

The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August issued by MPOB:
                                    September        August    Change
                                                         On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output     1,896,899     2,031,754    Dn  6.6%
Palm Oil Exports              1,628,197     1,437,503    Up 13.3%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports     104,760        71,272       Up 47.0%
Crude Palm Oil Imports        2,670         2,523         Up  5.8%

Closing Stocks               2,089,859       2,053,175    Up  1.8%
Crude Palm Oil               1,178,046      1,133,453     Up  3.9%
Processed Palm Oil          911,813        919,722        Dn  0.9%

(All figures are in metric tons)


Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 16, 2014, 10:14:58 PM
The CPO Futures closed sharply lower today as the market reacted to damning reports on exports by the surveyors ITS and SGS for 1-15/Oct which saw export demand declining by 16-17%. Adding salt to the wound was the easing up of the Ringgit again. Volumes heavy at 59068 lots.

 PHYSICAL MARKET PRICES FOR REFINED OILS & FATS

PRODUCTS Oct’14 Nov’14 Dec’14 JFM’15 AMJ’15
RBD PALM OLEIN 690 690 687.5 687.5 690
RBD PALM OIL 685 685 682.5 682.5 685
RBD PALM STEARIN 690
PALM FATTY ACID DISTILLATES 585
CRUDE PALM OIL (M$) 2180
CRUDE PALM KERNEL OIL (M$) PER PICUL 170
RBD PALM KERNEL OIL 980
RBD PALM KERNEL OLEIN 850
RBD PALM KERNEL STEARIN 1200
INDONESIAN CRUDE PALM OIL Na 670 667.5 697.5 702.5
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 21, 2014, 12:01:32 AM
Malaysia's Oct. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 894,697 (-10.2%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 22, 2014, 09:19:29 AM
Indonesia to Keep CPO Export Tax at Zero

Indonesia is expected to keep its export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) at zero for a second month in November, to remain competitive with rival grower Malaysia, which has also removed the tax. Benchmark CPO prices have dropped almost 20 percent this year and hit a 5 and a half year low of US$586 a ton last month in an oversupplied market.

In an attempt to give the market a boost, the world’s No. 2 palm oil producer, Malaysia, exempted the commodity from export taxes from September until the end of December. “Indonesia followed by slashing its monthly CPO export tax to zero for October from 9 percent in September and this is now likely to be extended into November,” Steaven Halim, an official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, said.

If international CPO prices drop below $750 a ton, the Indonesian export tax is automatically cut to zero. Indonesia’s government looks at average international and domestic CPO prices before announcing its monthly CPO export tax rates. The decision on November is due in the final week of October. (*)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 22, 2014, 09:21:28 AM
Indonesian Palm Oil Reserves Shrinking Most in 19 Months


Palm oil stockpiles in Indonesia probably slumped last month by the most since February 2013 as a dry spell reduced output in the largest supplier. Futures rose.

Inventories dropped 12 percent from August to 2.2 million metric tons, according to the median of six estimates from planters, traders, analysts and refiners compiled by Bloomberg. Production fell 9.8 percent to 2.3 million tons, the biggest decline this year, the median of five estimates shows.

Futures plunged 20 percent this year on swelling global supplies of cooking oils, including a record U.S. soybean harvest. That spurred Indonesia and Malaysia, which is the second-largest producer, to waive export duties. Dry conditions last month will worsen the impact on yields from a drought in the first quarter, according to PT Mandiri Sekuritas.

“The effect from the drought at the start of the year has begun to materialize,” said Hariyanto Wijaya, a Jakarta-based analyst at Mandiri Sekuritas. “The first-quarter dryness, coupled with very dry conditions in September, have really hurt output. Production may have peaked,” he said by phone Oct. 17.

Futures rose 0.4 percent to 2,139 ringgit ($656) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today, after touching 1,914 ringgit on Sept. 2, the lowest since 2009. Shipments fell to 1.696 million tons in September from 1.72 million tons a month earlier, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki, said in a statement today. That compares with the median estimate of 1.7 million tons in the survey.

Zero Tax

Shipments declined as some exporters deferred sales to October to benefit from the zero tax rate, said Joelianto, trading director at PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology. Exports to India, the top buyer, fell 38 percent to 305,330 tons and shipments to China, the second-biggest importer, dropped 31 percent to 56,260 tons, Gapki said in the statement.

Malaysia scrapped the export tax for two months in September and will extend the waiver until December, Prime Minister Najib Razak said Oct. 10. Reserves in the country expanded last month to the highest since March 2013 even as production dropped, palm oil board data show.

Indonesia cut the levy from 9 percent in September. The country sets the monthly export tariff according to a formula based on average prices in Jakarta, Rotterdam and Kuala Lumpur. Crude shipments attract no tax if the average is $750 or less.

“Over the past month, rainfall has been well below normal across southern Sumatra and most of Kalimantan,” Kyle Tapley, meteorologist at MDA Weather Services, said in an e-mail on Oct. 17. “Rains are expected to increase across Kalimantan over the next couple of weeks. Drier than normal weather should continue in southern Sumatra, however, which will maintain significant dryness and stress on palm growth.”

Forest fires in Sumatra also disrupted field work in the main producing areas last month, said Sahat Sinaga, executive director of the Indonesian Vegetable Oil Industry Association. Haze from the fires delayed flights to and from Sumatra as pollution neared levels considered dangerous to health. There were 153 hot spots in Sumatra, Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, spokesman for the national disaster mitigation agency, said Oct. 12.
     Sept. 2014 (Survey)   Aug. 2014   Sept. 2013
Output           2.30         2.55        2.40
Stockpiles       2.20         2.50        2.23
Exports          1.70         1.72        1.64
NOTE: Figures are in millions of tons

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 22, 2014, 09:22:45 AM
Malaysian palm oil ticks up on lower output, firm soybeans

SINGAPORE: Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher on Tuesday, recouping some of last session's losses with expectations of lower production of the tropical product and higher soybean prices underpinning the market.

Chicago soybean futures rose 0.5 percent to snap a two-session losing streak, supported by the slow pace of harvesting in the United Stated and as dryness delayed planting in Brazil.

Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia is expected decline in the months ahead as a result of dry weather earlier this year.

The benchmark January palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.2 percent to 2,136 ringgit ($655) per tonne by the midday break. Traded volume stood at 14,518 lots of 25 tonnes, slightly above the usual average of 12,500 lots.

Still, the gain in palm oil futures could be short-lived on expectations of record US soybean production, which is likely to boost competition in the world edible oil market.

"A decline in production and duty free exports of crude palm oil are supportive factors for the market but when we look at the global picture it shows abundant supplies," said one Kuala Lumpur-based trader. "We expect prices to trade in a tight range of 2,100 to 2,200 ringgit a tonne until the year-end."

Palm oil futures may end the year 2 percent above current levels due to lower output in Malaysia, the second-biggest producer, but abundant supplies of rival oilseeds mean prices will still close down about 19 percent for the year, a Reuters poll showed.

Crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the world's top producer, is expected to have dropped 3 percent in September, a survey of leading industry officials showed, easing due to dry weather conditions earlier in the year.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported that exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct. 1-20 fell 10.2 percent to 894,697 tonnes compared with the same period in September, recording a slight improvement from steeper losses earlier in the month.

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance said exports during the period fell 11.4 percent to 884,628 tonnes from 998,689 tonnes shipped during Sep. 1-20.

There was additional support for palm oil stemming from firm crude oil values.

Brent held above $85 a barrel as robust China oil demand supported prices although gains were capped by oversupply and lingering fears of a weak global economy.

China's Dalian soybean oil gained 0.1 percent, while US soyoil added 0.4 percent.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 29, 2014, 11:16:03 PM
Something From Dhorab Mistry

Crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives have bottomed out and
 will likely trade in the MYR2,100-MYR2,300 a metric ton range in the next few
 weeks, said vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry at an industry event in Kuala
 Lumpur on Wednesday.
 Export demand pushed up benchmark global CPO futures on the Malaysian exchange
 by 17% after it hit a five-year low in early September. Export demand rose after
 the Malaysian government scrapped an export tax on the oil. However, the run-up
 made CPO prices uncompetitive against other vegetable oils, which are in
 abundant supply this year.
 "The market clearly over-ran itself," said Mr. Mistry, who is also a
 London-based director at Indian conglomerate Godrej International Ltd. The tax
 waiver gave a MYR300/ton boost to the market, he noted.
 Palm should now move in range and rise steadily from Dec. 10 to MYR2,500/ton
 by March due to declines in production and stockpiles.
 "I believe the worst is over for oilseed farmers and plantations. Downside can
 now come only from massive South American (soybean) crops or from
 contra-cyclical jump in CPO production or from a major world economic crisis.
 Barring these, the palm plantation and processing industry can look forward to
 steady demand and improving prices," he added.
 Benchmark January BMD crude palm oil futures closed 0.6% higher at
 MYR2,226/ton at midday on Wednesday.
 Crude palm oil prices have been rocky for most of this year, hitting an
 18-month high in March due to a dry spell and forecasts of an El Nino event
 before tumbling to hit a five-year low of MYR1,914/ton on Sept. 2. The slump was
 due to the slow emergence of the forecast El Nino weather phenomenon, which is
 typically associated with dryness in Asia, as well as forecasts of bumper
 competing oilseed crops this year.
 Bullish calls fuelled by ambitious targets to propel biodiesel consumption at
 home in Indonesia and Malaysia also fell flat as both countries missed targets.
 The two countries account for about 85% of the world's palm oil production.
 On the production front, output is slowing as the effect of a six-week dry
 spell in February and March this year takes its toll. Output will drop further
 after November on seasonal factors, which will cause a draw down in stocks
 through the first six months of 2015, said Mr. Mistry.
 Malaysia's palm oil production is likely to hit 19.6 million to 19.8 million
 tons, down from an earlier forecast of 19.8 million to 20 million tons, said Mr.
 Mistry.
 Indonesia's palm oil output is likely worse due to a longer period of dry
 weather. Production is likely to drop to 30 million tons from 30.5 million tons
 this year. Current dry weather, now in its fifth month, will likely hit
 production in 2015.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 01, 2014, 10:29:44 PM
*MALAYSIA'S OCT. 1-31 PALM OIL EXPORTS 1,468,105 TONS: INTERTEK

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Shipments dropped 2% from 1,497,828
 tons in Sept., according to Intertek.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 01, 2014, 11:09:44 PM
UPDATE 1-Malaysia's palm stocks to ease in 2014, 2015 as demand picks up -MPOB

Oct 31 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil stocks could drop 14 percent by the end of 2014 from 2.09 million at the end of last month, a senior official of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said, as export demand and domestic food and fuel needs pick up.

Inventories are seen drawing down to 1.8 million tonnes by the end of the year, and are likely to end 2015 at 1.7 million tonnes, Ramli Abdullah, the head of the MPOB's economic unit, told an industry meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Friday.

"We expect exports to increase, due to the bigger population, especially in developing countries such as India and China," Ramli said on the sidelines of the conference.

"Our local consumption will also increase after we implement B7."

The "B7" mandate Malaysia announced on Tuesday aims to boost the palm oil content of biodiesel to 7 percent from 5 percent from November, as the world's No. 2 palm grower looks to cut stocks and prop up prices that have lost 13 percent this year.

The industry regulator had previously pegged stocks to range between 1.6 million and 1.8 million tonnes at the end of 2014, lower than the 1.99 million tonnes piled up at the end of 2013.

Output in Malaysia is expected to rise to 20.5 million tonnes in 2015, Ramli said, in the absence of extreme weather that could hurt yields.

Malaysia produced 14.66 million tonnes of crude palm oil between January and September, up 7 percent from a year earlier.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil were seen at 17.9 million tonnes in 2014, below forecasts for 18.5 million, but are expected to rise to 18.2 million in 2015.

Malaysia exported 18.15 million tonnes of palm oil in 2013, with China, India, Pakistan and Europe taking the bulk of shipments.

Ramli added that Malaysia exports more of its palm as compared to Indonesia, and an output increase could translate into bigger overseas sales and keep inventories in check.

Malaysian palm oil prices, which set the tone for global prices, are expected to trade between 2,300 and 2,500 ringgit per tonne in 2015, he added. Palm futures now trade at 2,303 ringgit per tonne.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 10, 2014, 11:52:06 PM
BN 11/10 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.61M TONS BN 11/10 04:31 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.17M TONS BN 11/10 04:31 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.89M TONS

Malaysia Oct. Palm Oil Stocks 2.17m Tons; Est. 2.14m Tons2014-11-10 04:38:25.785 GMTBy Niluksi Koswanage Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, rose 3.7% to 2.17m metric tons in Oct. from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says instatement today.• Output declined 0.2% to 1.89m tons, while exports dropped 1.4% to 1.61m tons• NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 2.14m tons, production at 1.84m tons and shipments at 1.55m tons
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 10, 2014, 11:53:17 PM
Malaysia Nov. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 400,614 (+1.30%) Tons: Intertek

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian palm oil shipments for first ten days of Nov. rose 1.3% from 395,532 tons in Oct. 1-10, according to Intertek.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 12, 2014, 12:06:31 AM
Palm rises on weak ringgit, but prices seen range bound

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Tuesday, supported by a weak ringgit, although trade was range bound as investors waited for clearer signal of where prices might head.

The Malaysian ringgit slid 0.37 percent to 3.3430 per US dollar as lower oil prices dampened sentiment towards the net oil exporter.

"The ringgit gave temporary support in the morning session, but there could be some selling pressure in the second half of the day," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

By the midday break, the benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had edged up 0.1 percent to 2,241 ringgit ($670) per tonne.

Total traded volume stood at 12,001 lots of 25 tonnes, just below the usual 12,500 lots.

Technicals showed that palm oil may rebound further to 2,253 ringgit as it has climbed above resistance at 2,225 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.

Analysts and traders say key data on the palm oil and soybean front released on Monday were void of big surprises and could keep palm futures range bound in the short term.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed October palm oil stocks rose to a 20-month high of 2.17 million tonnes, slightly above the 2.16 million tonne estimated.

A much-watched US Department of Agriculture report sees the US soybean crop at a record 3.958 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from October and just below trade forecasts averaging 3.967 billion.

"The key positive price drivers are seasonally lower palm oil output in the coming months, the increase in Malaysia's biodiesel mandate ... and upcoming festival restocking activities," said CIMB Investment Bank analyst Ivy Ng.

But this is offset by bumper US soybean supplies and weak crude oil prices, Ng added.

Brent crude traded around $82 a barrel on Tuesday, just above a four-year low hit last week, with a firm dollar and robust production from US shale oil fields offsetting a drop in output in Libya.

In other markets, the US soyoil contract for December was flat in early Asian trade, while the most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange shed 0.4 percent.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 19, 2014, 10:21:42 PM
Malaysia Nov. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 605,624 (-2.50%) Tons: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 20, 2014, 10:12:12 PM
MALAYSIA'S NOV. 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 837,329 (-6.4%) TONS: INTERTEK
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 24, 2014, 11:03:53 PM
Analysis & Forecast of Indonesia’s Palm Oil Export and CPO Prices

Exports of Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) and its derivatives increased 45.8 percent month-on-month (m/m) to 2.47 million metric tons in October 2014 primarily supported by the zero export tariff that was implemented by the Indonesian government per 1 October. Indonesia has a mechanism that when the average CPO price (which is calculated using international and local CPO prices) drop below USD $750 per metric ton, the export tax is scrapped. In early September, Malaysia had already implemented a zero CPO export tax.

Palm oil futures in Kuala Lumpur had touched 1,914 ringgit (approximately USD $572) per metric ton in early September 2014, the lowest since March 2009, and thus Malaysia (later followed by Indonesia) scrapped export taxes for CPO in an effort to boost sluggish CPO prices. Malaysian authorities have already announced that the zero export tariff will be maintained up to the year-end. Indonesian authorities, however, have not confirmed yet whether the 0 percent export tax will be extended into December (as this decision depends on the aforementioned price-mechanism) but chances are very slim that the government’s benchmark CPO price will exceed the USD $750 per metric ton level in December. Considering that there are still ample reserves of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia (on the back of strong production in 2013 and 2014) as well as other vegetable oils (soy, rapeseed and sunseed), we expect that the benchmark CPO price may touch USD $750 per ton again after March 2015. Indonesia’s Trade Ministry set its November 2014 benchmark CPO price at USD $665 per metric ton.

Although the performance of Indonesia’s palm oil export in October is good on a month-on-month basis, it can be labelled sluggish when compared to the export performance last year. In the first ten months of 2014, Indonesia’s overall CPO export stood at 17.5 million metric tons, a mere two percentage point improvement from the same period in 2013 (17.2 million metric tons).

Indonesia's October CPO export performance was not only supported by the 0 percent export tariff but also due to a sharp rebound in CPO demand from China, Indonesia’s second-largest CPO customer (after India). Exports to China improved as Indonesian palm oil producers now meet China's recently-introduced new regulations regarding pesticide residue. As a result, Indonesian CPO exports increased 390 percent m/m to 275.9 thousand tons in October 2014. Meanwhile, CPO demand from India also grew sharply in October. According to data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), Indonesian CPO exports to India grew 140 percent m/m to 733.6 thousand tons in October. The main factor that explains this growth is the looming Indian import tariff hike for edible oils. The government of India plans to raise this import tax from 2.5 percent to 10 percent soon. Therefore - ahead of its implementation - Indian importers boost CPO imports to take advantage of the current lower import duties.

Indonesian CPO export to the USA declined sharply in October (95 percent m/m to 3.2 thousand tons) due to the abundant soybean supply in the world’s largest economy. Soybean oil and palm oil dominate the global market, accounting for about 60 percent of the world’s total edible oils production, and, as both commodities can substitute each other, food processors can alternate between the two commodities depending on favourable prices.

Indonesian Palm Oil Export in 2014:

Month       Volume (million tons)
January          1.57
February          1.58
March          1.79
April          1.38
May          1.70
June          1.79
July          1.84
August          1.72
September          1.69
October          2.47
Total         17.53

Source: Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki)

There are a number of signs that point to improving global CPO prices in the coming months. Firstly, drought in several important CPO producing regions of Indonesia (Sumatra and Kalimantan) managed to curb recent CPO production rates, thus resulting in the country’s declining CPO reserves. Secondly, drought in Brazil (an important soybean producer) in October causes expectation about declining soybean output (which should boost soybean prices and thus make CPO a more attractive alternative). Thirdly, Indonesian CPO exports are expected to decline as domestic biofuel demand increases. In August 2013, the Indonesian government introduced an ambitious program that stipulates a higher mandatory content of fatty acid methyl ester (made from palm oil) in biodiesel products (the mandatory content was raised from 7.5 percent to 10 percent). This program was launched in a bid to curb costly oil imports (the main reason for the country’s wide current account deficit). As a result of this program, domestic palm-based biodiesel demand is expected to rise to 1.6 million tons in 2014, to 4.2 million tons in 2015, and to 8.85 million tons in 2016, thus curbing the global CPO supply. Lastly, palm oil enters the biological down-cycle in 2015, implying that production growth may not be as strong as it has been in 2013 and 2014.

The world’s palm oil output is dominated by Indonesia and Malaysia. Together, both countries account for between 85 to 90 percent of total global palm oil production. Indonesia is currently the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil.


Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:



    2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014¹
Production
(million metric tons)   16.8   19.2   19.4   21.8   23.5   26.5    27.0    30.5
Export
(million metric tons)    n.a   14.2   15.5   15.6   16.5   18.1    21.2    20.0
Export
(in USD billion)    n.a   15.6   10.0   16.4   20.2   21.6    19.0    18.0


¹ indicates forecast
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture


Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 26, 2014, 12:08:15 AM
Malaysia's Nov. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 1,098,870(-3.30%) Tons: SGS

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 26, 2014, 12:19:24 AM
Prices of CPO expected to recover

Crude palm oil (CPO) prices, which have plummeted since the beginning of the year, are expected to pick up in the next 12 months to a price range of RM2,600 to RM2,700 per tonne, say analysts.

MIDF Amanah Investment’s plantation analyst Nadia Kamil expects prices to recover within the next six to 12 months as demand recovers.

“The demand is expected to recover with the support of higher off-take from India and improvement in B7 bio-diesel programme implemented in November 2014.

“However, we believe the increase in demand will be marginal and it is insufficient to push CPO beyond RM3,000 per tonne.

Hence, we maintain our average CPO price forecast for 2015 as RM2,650 per tonne,” said Nadia.

However, in the short to medium term of the next three to six months, Nadia said demand is expected to shrink as major buyers from China and India are expected to reduce their palm oil consumption due to the winter season.

“Palm oil tends to solidify in cold temperature.

Given this background, we do not foresee any significant changes in CPO price movement. We expect CPO price to move between RM2,200 and RM2,500 per tonne during that timeframe,” said Nadia. For the next six to 12 months, palm oil supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to grow at a rate of 6% to 8% from 7% in the corresponding period this year.

Meanwhile, RHB Investment Bank Bhd’s plantation analyst Hoe Lee Leng said the pickup in prices is expected to happen in the first-quarter (1Q) of next year, with CPO prices expected to reach a range of RM2,600 to RM2,700 per tonne.

“Prices will pick up in the 1Q of next year as there would be a better implementation of the bio-diesel programme in Indonesia.

“Previously, prior to the election in Indonesia, there were many tenders that were not going through.

Now with the government policies, the bio-diesel programme will be implemented based on that mandate,” said Hoe.

Hoe, however, expects demand to slow down by the second-half of next year as production cycles increase during that timeframe.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 01, 2014, 11:37:37 PM
Malaysia's Nov. Palm Oil Exports 1,310,509 Tons (-10.5% mom) , SGS Report
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 06, 2014, 09:37:04 PM
Palm Stockpiles in Malaysia Seen Advancing to 21-Month High

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia probably climbed to the highest since February 2013 as a tax exemption on exports failed to spur shipments from the world’s second-biggest producer.

Stockpiles rose 5.5 percent to 2.29 million metric tons in November from 2.17 million tons a month earlier, according to the median estimate from six planters, analysts and traders compiled by Bloomberg. Output fell for a third month, dropping 4.8 percent to 1.80 million tons, while exports dropped 7.8 percent to 1.48 million tons, the survey showed. The Palm Oil Board is set to release official data on Dec. 10.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur are headed for the third annual loss in four years as global cooking oil supplies expand and a plunge in crude oil to the lowest since 2009 reduces demand for blending with gasoline. Malaysia extended tax-free exports until the end of the year in a bid to reduce reserves that Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. estimates will top 2 million tons by the end of December, exceeding the government’s 1.6 million target.

“The probability of stockpiles being near the government’s comfort levels is low because of weak exports,” said Alan Lim, an analyst at Kenanga in Kuala Lumpur. “The removal of tax is good for short-term demand and the short-term push in demand is already over. Inventories by year-end could be in the range of 2 million tons to 2.2 million tons.”

Containing Inventories

Futures plunged to 1,914 ringgit ($555) a ton on Sept. 2, the lowest since March 2009, prompting Malaysia to scrap the export tax to cap stockpiles at its year-end target. Reserves would have jumped to as high as 2.2 million tons without the tax exemption, Malaysia’s Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities said on Sept. 5.

Most palm oil exports from Indonesia, the world’s biggest supplier, became tax-free in October after prices fell below the average level used to calculate tariffs. The two countries supply about 86 percent of global output, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.

“As long as prices are below 2,250 ringgit, the zero export tax will continue” in Malaysia, Lim said. “Prices may remain weak unless there is any disruption in production due to weather-related issues.”

Futures have fallen 18 percent this year and ended at 2,173 ringgit on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today, the highest level at close since Nov. 27. Palm’s discount to soybean oil more than doubled to $75.58 a ton from a three-year low of $35.38 on Nov. 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

‘Losing Magic’

“Zero-export tax promotion may lose its magic as a widening price gap suggests that demand is switching from palm to soybean oil, especially during the cold season,” said Hiro Chai, associate director at CIMB Futures Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur. “Export numbers in December will not look good as consumers are not fond of palm in the cold season.”

Shipments from Malaysia retreated 9.8 percent to 1.32 million tons in November from 1.47 million tons a month earlier, Intertek, a surveyor, said on Dec. 1.

“The market is now concerned with what will be the production in December and January,” Paramalingam Supramaniam, a director at Pelindung Bestari Sdn. Bhd., said by phone from Selangor. “We can already see signs of a massive plunge in production in December because of extensive rainfall.”

Prices may reach 2,500 ringgit by March 4 and extend gains as inventories bottom around June, Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd., said Nov. 28. Biodiesel policies in Indonesia will determine the direction of prices in the next 12 months, he said.
      Nov. 2014 (Survey)   Oct. 2014 (MPOB)   Nov. 2013 (MPOB)
Output          1.80             1.89               1.86
Stockpiles      2.29             2.17               1.98
Exports         1.48             1.605              1.53
Imports         0.05             0.083              0.015
Figures are in millions of tons.
NOTE: Import figure is the median of four estimates.

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 10, 2014, 09:43:41 PM
MPOB Says Malaysia Nov. Palm Oil Stocks 2.28m Tons; Est. 2.29m

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 BN 12/10 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA NOV. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.51M TONS
 BN 12/10 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA NOV. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.28M TONS
 BN 12/10 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA NOV. PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.75M TONS

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

MPOB Says Malaysia Nov. Palm Oil Stocks 2.28m Tons; Est. 2.29m
2014-12-10 04:39:51.896 GMT

By Ranjeetha Pakiam
     Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) --  Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia,world’s second-largest producer, rose 5.2% to 2.28m metric tons in Nov. from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.
  * Output declined 7.5% to 1.75m tons, while exports dropped 6.1% to 1.51m tons
  * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 2.29m tons, production at 1.8m tons and shipments at 1.48m tons



Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 10, 2014, 09:49:38 PM
Malaysia’s Dec. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 407,425 (+1.7%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 10, 2014, 11:25:17 PM
Indonesia, Malaysia seen keeping crude palm exports duty-free in January

Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top palm growers, will probably keep shipments of crude palm oil duty-free in January as prices struggle to pull away from five-year lows, and some players expect that to continue through the first quarter of 2015. "I don't think Malaysia and Indonesia are keen to resume export taxes yet," leading vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry said. "With the current downward wave in prices as a result of the fall in crude oil, it is very strongly felt by me that Malaysia will announce an exemption from export taxes for first quarter 2015. I would recommend such a decision," he added.

Benchmark palm oil prices on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were trading at RM2,174 per tonne today. The contract has lost more than 18% this year, hitting a low of RM1,914 in September. Mistry, who heads the vegetable oil trading arm at India's Godrej Industries, said the threshold for Indonesian taxes to come into effect was unlikely to be reached for January if crude oil prices stayed weak. Indonesia decides on its monthly crude palm oil export tax rate by looking at average international and domestic prices. If these fall below US$750 a tonne, the levy is dropped. Malaysia uses a calculation based on average monthly prices provided by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the industry regulator. A monthly average above RM2,250 will trigger an export tax that starts from 4.5%. However, the final decision is made by the government. Malaysia scrapped its export taxes for the crude grade from September until end-December to encourage overseas sales and cushion the fall in prices.
Top grower Indonesia followed suit in October as it strived to remain competitive with its rival and market participants said that could boost palm oil's share of global vegetable oil consumption. Indonesia will also probably keep its palm oil tariff unchanged in January, said Steaven Halim, an official at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association Market players are optimistic that the tax exemption could spur demand in palm's biggest consumers, including China, which will be stocking up on the tropical oil ahead of Lunar New Year festivities in February. "If the tax is zero, it's good for buyers, definitely," said a palm oil trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "Both governments, considering prices have fallen so much, may engineer something where they will keep the taxes at zero," he added, expecting Malaysia to keep the rate at zero until March. – Reuters, December 10, 2014.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 16, 2014, 12:01:37 AM
Malaysia,s Dec. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 618,134 (+2%) Tons, SGS Reports

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 19, 2014, 12:21:31 AM
Palm edges up on crude oil recovery; heavy rains eyed

KUALA LUMPUR/JAKARTA: Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Thursday, lifted by a small recovery in crude oil prices, while wet weather warnings across parts of the second-largest grower stoked concerns that yields of the tropical oil will drop this month.

Malaysia's metereological department issued an "orange" warning on its website for heavy rain across the states of Sabah, Kelantan, and Terengganu, expected to persist until the end of the week. Rains are also expected across Pahang.

Sabah is Malaysia's top growing palm state, and together with Pahang accounts for about 45 percent of the country's total crude palm oil supply.

Prolonged rains can cause flooding in palm estates, complicating harvesting and transportation of fresh fruit to mills.

A palm oil trader with a foreign commodities brokerage told Reuters palm prices are edgding up on concerns over the wet weather and floods in some areas, alongside hopes of a recovery in crude oil prices.

Brent crude edged further above $61 a barrel on Thursday, after sharply lower prices forced companies to cut upstream investments around the world.

By 0715 GMT, the benchmark March contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was up 0.9 percent at 2,150 ringgit ($618) per tonne. Total traded volume stood at 23,827 lots of 25 tonnes.

Some market players said that the contract was also supported by a technical rebound that kicked in after prices touched 2-week lows of 2,103 ringgit in the previous session.

"The market has a trading range of 2,100 ringgit to about 2,200 ringgit. The last few days it came off quite a bit so there is some technical rebound," said a second Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

"You can see that as the market goes closer to 2,100 ringgit there is a buying opportunity," the trader added.

Technical charts showed palm oil is expected to test resistance at 2,178 ringgit per tonne, a break above which will lead to a further gain to 2,216 ringgit, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange shed 0.1 percent in early Asian trade, while the US soyoil contract for January gained 0.3 percent.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 19, 2014, 11:32:33 PM
Malaysia to keep crude palm oil exports tax-free until end-Feb -govt official


Dec 19 (Reuters) - Malaysia will keep exports of crude palm oil duty-free until end-February, a senior government official said on Friday, as the world's second-largest grower tries to boost demand and cut stockpiles that have ballooned to a 21-month high.

Tax-exempted exports for a sixth straight month may provide some relief to benchmark Malaysian palm prices that have tumbled 20 percent this year on fears of record supplies of rival oilseeds and a rout in crude oil markets.

Sustained losses in palm, the world's most traded vegetable oil, could hurt earnings of major planters such as Sime Darby , Kuala Lumpur Kepong and Golden Agri , and threaten the livelihood of smallholders.

"As a temporary move, the government has decided to exempt the 4.5 percent export tax on crude palm oil from Sept. 1, 2014 to Feb. 28, 2015," Malaysia's plantation industries and commodities minister Douglas Uggah Embas said.

"The move is aimed at boosting crude palm oil exports and reducing stocks, which will then give a positive impact on local palm oil prices," he said at an industry event.

Some industry players and analysts had expected Malaysia to allow duty-free shipments until March to help prices pull away from five-year lows of 1,914 ringgit ($551) per tonne hit in September. Prices are now at 2,150 ringgit.

Top palm grower Indonesia will announce its decision for January crude palm oil export taxes later this month. It had scrapped the levy from October to December.

Malaysia usually calculates its CPO tax using average monthly prices provided by the industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, where a monthly average above 2,250 ringgit will trigger taxes that start from 4.5 percent. But the final decision is taken by the government.

Inventories in Malaysia rose to 2.28 million tonnes at end-November, their largest since Feb. 2013, on sluggish overseas sales which led to supplies outstripping demand.

The tax incentive, however, could help spur demand for the tropical oil from palm's biggest consumers as it comes at a time where No.2 edible oil buyer China restocks ahead of its Lunar New Year festivities next year. ($1 = 3.4750 ringgit) (Editing by Himani Sarkar)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 22, 2014, 08:59:41 PM
Malaysia's Dec. 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 911,595 (+8.9%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 25, 2014, 11:05:50 PM
Palm Oil Production in Malaysia Seen Falling 11% in December

PALM oil output in Malaysia, the biggest producer after Indonesia, will probably drop the most in 10 months in December amid a seasonal decline in yields. Prices climbed to the highest in almost a month.

Production is set to fall 11 per cent to 1.56 million tons from 1.75 million tons in November, according to the median of five analyst and trader estimates compiled.

That would be the lowest for December since 2011 and 6.6 per cent less than a year earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board data show.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur are heading for the third annual loss in four years as global cooking oil supplies expand and a plunge in crude to the lowest since 2009 reduces demand for alternative fuels. Indonesia and Malaysia have scrapped export taxes to help cut reserves. Output typically declines from November through February because of the low-production season and as rains disrupt harvesting.

"It's highly dependent on the weather," Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, said by phone on Dec. 19. "We have a bit of flooding here and there, but we don't know how long it will last, and which areas are affected, and whether it has affected harvesting. More clarity will be seen at the end of the month."

Futures rose as much as 1.2 per cent to 2,236 ringgit ($639) a metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today, the highest level since Nov. 27, before trading at 2,235 ringgit by 4:49 p.m. local time. Prices have declined 16 per cent this year.

The northeast monsoon brings widespread, continuous rains which often cause floods along the east coast states of Peninsula Malaysia from mid-November to early January, the Malaysian Meteorological Department said in its monthly report.

The precipitation usually reaches Sabah and Sarawak from late this month until early February, it said. The two states are the largest producers of palm oil.

Traders are monitoring output in December to see if the country can reach its full-year target, according to Chandran Sinnasamy, executive director at LT International Futures Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur.

Malaysia may produce a record 19.5 million tons this year from 19.2 million tons in 2013 on higher yields from fresh fruit bunches, the Finance Ministry said Oct. 10. Adding the survey estimate to Palm Oil Board data for the first 11 months gives output of 19.86 million tons.

Inventories may decline 4 per cent to 2.19 million tons by the end of the year from a month earlier, according to Alan Lim, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. He expects output to drop 11 per cent in December from November and to extend the decline in January, keeping prices above 2,100 ringgit, he said. Production, which reached a record 2.03 million tons in August, should recover in April, Lim said
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 26, 2014, 09:35:46 PM
Malaysia’s Dec. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 1,083,151(-1.4% mom) Tons: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 28, 2014, 10:20:15 PM
Malaysia's monsoon floods seen crippling December palm supply - industry


* Malaysia's December palm output seen plunging around 18 pct

* Nearly 120,000 evacuated in the worst monsoon floods in decades

* Prices seen between 2,200 and 2,300 ringgit

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Severe monsoon flooding in Malaysia that has forced more than a hundred thousand people to evacuate, is likely to cause a bigger-than-expected disruption to crude palm oil production in the world's No.2 producer, planters and traders said.

This will give legs to the recovery in benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices, which plunged to their five-year lows of 1,914 ringgit ($549) three months ago on fears of overwhelming supplies of rival oilseeds, and took another beating in early December from a slide in crude oil prices.

Floods in key palm-growing areas would hinder harvesting, transportation and crushing of fresh palm fruits, leading to tighter supplies of the world's most traded vegetable oil in December and early 2015.

"This year the floods are quite bad. It's worse than normal. A lot of the east coast estates are not functional now - they are under water," said Roy Lim Kiam Chye, group plantations director at Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Kepong.

"The question is the supply that will be affected. Even when harvesting resumes, there will be a lot of quality problems."

Thunderstorms prevent plantation workers from harvesting fresh fruit bunches from oil palm trees, leaving them to overripe and in some cases rot.

Fruits that do get harvested, however, may not make it to mills in time to be crushed as roads are inundated with water, or may have to be turned away as mills are shut due to flooding.

The delay in crushing and exposure to excess water drive up the free fatty acid (FFA) content in crude palm oil, reducing its quality.

"If you got a 7 percent free fatty acid (content), which is 2 percent above the maximum permitable tradeable level, then you're going to have higher losses and problems to run the bad quality oil through the machinery," said a second Malaysian-based planter, who declined to be named.

"Output will drop 5 percent more than it would have been for December," the planter added, and estimates production could now drop 18 percent from November to around 1.43 million tonnes.

The number of people evacuated from their homes rose sharply to nearly 119,000 as 0700 GMT on Friday from 35,000 on Tuesday, state news agency Bernama reported, in what local authorities say is the nation's worst flooding in decades.

The worst-hit states are Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Perak, which together account for about 30 percent of Malaysia's palm supply.

A group of millers in southern Peninsular Malaysia earlier this week estimated that output across Pahang, Johor and Malacca tumbled 36 percent between Dec. 1 and 20 from a month earlier, traders said, as heavy rains take its toll on palm's seasonally weaker cycle.

Malaysia's meteorological department expects more monsoon rains until the end of the year, its website showed.

Palm prices, which closed at 2,249 ringgit on Friday and posted their biggest weekly gain in two months, would be underpinned by concerns about the steep drop in output and investors refraining from any sell-off, traders said.

"If you're a palm oil player and you see parts of the country under water, you're not going to take the risk," said the second Kuala Lumpur-based trader, who sees prices finding a new support at 2,200 ringgit.

However, four planters and traders contacted by Reuters expect any rally in the near term to be capped at 2,300 ringgit as worries of weak crude prices and record supplies of soybeans linger. ($1 = 3.4890 ringgit) (Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 02, 2015, 11:19:47 PM
Malaysia Dec. Palm Oil Exports 1,312,655 (-0.87% mom)Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 03, 2015, 11:34:03 PM
CIMB expects palm oil prices to remain firm amid flood damage

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 2 ― Floods that hurt palm oil production across Malaysia will exacerbate a seasonal decline in output and help to cut inventories, according to CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, which said that it expected prices to remain firm. The inundation affected about 184,000 hectares (455,000 acres), or about 3.5 per cent of the country’s total planted area, with the states of Kelantan, Pahang and Terengganu worst- hit, analyst Ivy Ng wrote in a report dated today. Output may have dropped 20 per cent to about 1.4 million metric tonnes last month from November, Ng said, citing an estimate from Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Douglas Uggah Embas. Palm oil rallied this week to the highest level in almost two months on concern the wetter-than-usual weather that stretched from southern Thailand, through Malaysia and into Indonesia may hurt supplies. The floods displaced hundreds of thousands, damaged infrastructure and prompted the government in Malaysia to prioritize flood-mitigation works. The country is the world’s largest palm oil producer after Indonesia. “We need an immediate assessment of the damages,” Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin was cited as saying by the New Straits Times today. Infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, was affected, according to Muhyiddin, who was in Perak state overseeing flood-relief efforts. Palm oil for March delivery was 0.6 per cent lower at RM2,253 a tonne on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at the midday break in Kuala Lumpur. The price rallied to RM2,308 on December 29, the highest since November 4. Last month it advanced 4.3 per cent, paring an annual decline, as the floodwaters spread. Lower inventory “The flood and the seasonally low-production season is likely to exacerbate the drop in crude palm oil output in the December 2014-January 2015 period, leading to lower palm oil inventory,” CIMB’s Ng wrote in the report dated January 2 “This will be positive for near-term crude palm oil prices.” The flooding affected about 23,730 hectares of estates run by Felda Global Ventures Bhd, or 6.3 per cent of the company’s total planted oil palm estates, and the group estimated losses of about RM21 million, Ng wrote. The company’s shares slumped as much as 5.5 per cent in Kuala Lumpur today. “Planters that are impacted by the flood will likely see weaker earnings in the fourth quarter of 2014 as the slight rise in crude palm oil price will not be sufficient to offset the drop in output,” Ng wrote. For Felda, the RM21 million loss is equivalent to 6 per cent of CIMB’s full-year net income forecast for the company, according to the report. Stockpiles outlook Stockpiles stood at 2.28 million tonnes at the end of November after rising for a fifth month, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board. The reserves may have contracted to about 2 million tonnes in December, according to an estimate MPOB Director-General Choo Yuen May on December 31. “The flood news has been discounted by the market,” Faiyaz Hudani, associate vice president at Kotak Commodity Services, said by phone from Mumbai, India today. “There may be some decline in production because of the disruption, but there are good carryover stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia.” Isolated showers and storms are forecast for Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Perak over the next seven days, according to data from the Malaysian Meteorological Department posted on its website on January 1. The number of evacuees declined this week as floodwaters receded. The figure in Pahang, Perak, Terengganu, Kelantan and Johor was at 84,575, down from 91,244 on January 1, according to state news agency Bernama said, citing data from government agencies.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 03, 2015, 11:41:22 PM
VEGOILS-Palm Oil Dips as Traders Take Profits After 8-Day Climb

* Prices down 0.1 pct by end of day, reversing earlier gains
* Monsoon floods seen hitting palm oil supply in Q1, 2015
* Palm may rise to 2,318-2,338 range -technicals (Recasts, updates prices)

31/12/2014 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil slipped on Tuesday as traders took profits after an eight-day rally, but prices remained supported by monsoon floods that have inundated plantations, threatening to reduce output in the world's second-largest producer.

Severe monsoon flooding in Malaysia that has forced nearly a quarter of a million people to evacuate, is likely to cause a bigger-than-expected disruption to crude palm oil production in December with the impact likely to last well into the first quarter of 2015.

By Tuesday's close the benchmark March contract had slipped 0.09 percent to 2,283 ringgit ($653) per tonne after hitting 2,305 ringgit earlier in the day.

Traded volume stood at 39,969 lots of 25 tonnes, above the daily average of around 35,000 lots traded.

"It was typical profit taking," a palm oil trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur told Reuters, referring to the dip after the rally. He added that prices were still holding relatively firm because of the floods.

"The market is firm due to floods disrupting supplies," said another trader. "We are hearing supply is tight in the spot physical market."

Palm oil may rise further into a range of 2,318-2,338 ringgit per tonne, as it had cleared a resistance at 2,287 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.

Thunderstorms prevent plantation workers from harvesting fresh fruit bunches from oil palm trees, leaving them to over ripen and in some cases rot.

Fruits that do get harvested, however, may not make it to mills in time to be crushed as roads are inundated with water, or may have to be turned away as mills are shut due to flooding.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a group of growers, forecast that crude palm oil production in Malaysia fell 21 percent between Dec. 1 and 20 compared with the same period a month ago.

A group of millers in southern peninsular Malaysia estimated that crude palm oil production between Dec. 1 and 25 in the states of Johor, Pahang and Melaka plunged 37 percent from the same period in November, according to traders.

Dalian soybean oil gained 0.5 percent.

($1 = 3.5 ringgit).
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 05, 2015, 10:47:32 PM
Crude Palm Oil Indonesia Update: Limited Production Growth in 2015

Indonesia’s production of crude palm oil (CPO) is estimated to reach 31 million tons this year, up from an expected 29.5 million tons in 2014, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Board (DMSI). Similar to last year, CPO production growth is limited due to unconducive weather conditions in the world’s largest producer and exporter of palm oil. Moreover, old trees have become less productive, while the younger generation of planted trees have not yet reached an optimal production age.

Amid the 2000s commodities boom, Indonesia’s palm oil production growth rate averaged 10 percent per year. In recent years, however, growth has declined significantly amid weak global economic conditions (resulting in weak CPO demand and declining CPO prices), limited palm oil plantation expansion due to the government’s primary forest moratorium (2011-2015) meaning a temporary stop to the granting of new permits to clear rain forests and peat lands, and weather conditions.

Floods in important palm oil growing regions in Malaysia (Terengganu, Pahang, Kelantan and Perak which together accounted for 30 percent of Malaysia’s total CPO output in 2013) have disrupted harvests, milling and transportation, implying that output in December and January will be curtailed. Malaysian authorities stated that a total of 7,500 smallholders - covering 24,000 hectares and 230 oil palm estates spanning 160,000 hectares - were affected. Unconducive weather conditions in Malaysia are expected to continue up to mid-January. Meanwhile, CPO stockpiles in Malaysia may decline from 2.7 million tons to 2 million tons in December 2014 due to limited production. Stockpiles may decline further as the Malaysian government implemented the Biodiesel B7 program (implying the blending palm biodiesel and petroleum diesel).

One advantage of limited CPO output in Indonesia and Malaysia is that it should support global CPO prices. The table below shows that the monthly palm oil price mostly fell in 2014. From September 2014, the price moved sideways after Malaysia and Indonesia - the world’s two largest CPO producers - introduced zero export tariffs for palm oil in an attempt to boost global demand and raise CPO prices. Although demand from India and China (the two largest CPO importers) is expected to remain sluggish in 2015, the global CPO price is estimated to grow slightly in the months ahead primarily due to limited CPO production in Malaysia and Indonesia.

Indonesian Palm Oil Export in 2014:



Month       Volume
  (million tons)
January          1.57
February          1.58
March          1.79
April          1.38
May          1.70
June          1.79
July          1.84
August          1.72
September          1.69
October          2.47
Total         17.53

Source: Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki)

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:


    2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014¹   2015¹
Production
(million metric tons)   19.2   19.4   21.8   23.5   26.5    27.0    29.5    31.0
Export
(million metric tons)   15.1   17.1   17.1   17.6   18.2    21.2    20.0    21.6
Export
(in USD billion)   15.6   10.0   16.4   20.2   21.6    19.0    18.4   

¹ indicates forecast
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture


Key Findings:



• CPO production growth in Indonesia in 2015 expected to be limited

• Global CPO price expected to raise slightly in 2015 due to limited production growth in Indonesia and Malaysia

• Malaysia and Indonesia expected to maintain duty-free palm oil exports in first quarter of 2015
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 07, 2015, 10:40:44 PM
PREVIEW-Malaysia's Dec palm stocks seen at 5-month low after floods


* Dec palm stocks forecast at 2.02 mln tonnes, lowest since July

* Output seen down 22.5 pct at 1.36 mln tonnes

* Exports expected to drop 1.5 pct to 1.49 mln tonnes

* Malaysian Palm Oil Board data due Jan 12 after 0430 GMT

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil inventories probably fell to a five-month low in December, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, after monsoon floods disrupted harvesting and transportation in parts of the world's second-biggest grower.

The drop in stockpiles may give a boost to palm prices , which last year clocked their first decline since 2012, under pressure from a record supply of rival edible oils and a plunge in crude oil prices.

A survey of six planters, traders and analysts forecast that Malaysian palm stocks would fall 11.4 percent from November to 2.02 million tonnes, halting a rise seen from July.

Crude palm oil output is seen tumbling 22.5 percent from November to 1.36 million tonnes in December, after flooding in parts of the country disrupted the harvesting and crushing of palm fruit and forced some mills and refineries to shut.

The flooding, which local authorities say is the worst in decades, has killed dozens and displaced nearly a quarter of a million people.

The worst-hit states are Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang and Perak, all in Peninsular Malaysia and which together account for about 30 percent of the country's crude palm oil supply.

Exports were seen down 1.5 percent from November at 1.49 million tonnes, the survey showed, as festive activities and year-end holidays slowed trade.

The median figures from the survey would imply domestic consumption in December of 195,368 tonnes.


FLOODS TO HIT Q1 SUPPLIES

Planters and traders have said the floods may depress output by more than some expect, which could support prices.

While flood water has mostly receded and evacuees are slowly returning to their homes, it may take months for badly hit estates to fully recover.

"For those affected areas, it will take some time for plantations to resume operations. Yes, waters are receding in many areas but they cannot start work now," said an official with a Malaysian plantations firm.

"And you don't have the people to harvest. They are all in survival mode now, trying to build their houses and fulfil basic needs," the official added.

Malaysia's meteorological department warned on Tuesday of more thunderstorms over parts of the country, including the major palm-growing areas of Pahang, Johor and Sabah, which are expected to drag on until the end of the week.

Hiro Chai with CIMB Futures said that a prolonged spell of adverse weather could cause a major drop in crude palm oil output in January.

Breakdown of December's estimates (in tonnes):

Range Median Production 1,312,925 - 1,460,000 1,357,345 Exports 1,420,000 - 1,500,000 1,490,846 Imports 30,000 - 90,000 70,000 Closing stocks 1,922,125 - 2,060,000 2,019,500 (Editing by Alan Raybould)
 
 
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 12, 2015, 10:34:29 PM
MPOB Says Malaysia December Palm Oil Output 1.36 Mln Tons(-22% mom)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

BN 01/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA DEC. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.52M TONS
BN 01/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA DEC. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.01M TONS
BN 01/12 04:29 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA DEC. PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.36M TONS

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

MPOB Says Malaysia December Palm Oil Output 1.36 Mln Tons
2015-01-12 04:33:12.55 GMT


By Niluksi Koswanage
    (Bloomberg) --  Palm oil output in Malaysia, world’s
second-largest producer, fell 22% to 1.36m metric tons in Dec.
from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in e-mailed
statement today.
 * Stockpiles declined 12% to 2.01m tons, while exports climbed
   0.4% to 1.52m tons
 * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed production
   at 1.46m tons, inventories at 2.05m tons and shipments at
   1.48m tons
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 12, 2015, 10:35:43 PM
Malaysia’s Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 355,846 (-12.7% mom) Tons: Intertek

Malaysia’s Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 355,846 Tons: Intertek
2015-01-12 02:28:19.872 GMT


By Niluksi Koswanage
    (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian palm oil exports in first 10 days
of Jan dropped 12.7% from 407,425 tons from Dec. 1-10, according
to intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 13, 2015, 11:04:11 PM
Trees Under Water in Malaysia Fueling Rally in Palm Oil

Yusof Mohd Isa’s oil-palm plantation on the banks of Malaysia’s Terpai river was submerged under 12 feet (3.7 meters) of water last month.

The 60-year-old farmer, who harvests fruit every two weeks, reaped less than half a metric ton once the waters receded, a quarter of the normal yield. Flooding in Malaysia, which produces a third of the world’s crop, is exacerbating what is always a seasonal low in year-round production.

The floods were the worst in four decades and Malaysia’s output in December plunged the most in eight years, Palm Oil Board data show. In contrast to the slump in crude oil, prices for palm rallied about 23 percent since September, and Macquarie Group Ltd. says the rally has further to go. That’s boosting the cost of the vegetable oil used by Unilever, Hershey Co. and biodiesel producers throughout Asia.

“I don’t think we were going into the monsoon expecting such a devastating loss,” said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur who has studied the market since 1996. “If there are further losses to production, then the situation will get tighter and prices could move higher.”

The monsoon that hit the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia spawned the worst floods since 1972, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd. said. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced, as the waters damaged homes, power lines, roads and bridges. With access to plantations blocked, some water-logged fruit rotted and were unfit for processing into oil.

Top Producers

Malaysia and top producer Indonesia together supply 86 percent of the world’s palm oil, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Output usually declines during the rainy season on the Malay peninsula, with harvests peaking from July to October. In January and February 2014, the crop was hurt by the worst dry spell for that time of year since 1997.

Flood damage reduced Malaysian output to 1.36 million tons in December, the lowest for that month since 2010 and a 22 percent slump from November, the biggest for any month since December 2006, board data showed yesterday. The decline reduced inventories for the first time in six months, they said.

Palm-oil futures on Jan. 9 reached 2,383 ringgit ($663) a ton, the highest since July, on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. Prices that touched a 2014 low of 1,914 ringgit on Sept. 2 have climbed 3.8 percent this month after a 4.3 percent gain in December. The oil may average as much as 2,500 ringgit in 2015, Kuala Lumpur-based RHB Investment Bank Bhd. estimates.

Cheaper Crude

The rally won’t last, Wayne Gordon, a Singapore-based commodities analyst at UBS Group AG, said in a Jan. 9 interview. The floods are already reflected in the price, which may drop to 2,100 ringgit to 2,300 ringgit this week, he said.

The slump in crude-oil prices may erode the appeal of palm oil as a source of fuel. About 16 percent of the world crop is used to make biodiesel. Rising crude output and slowing demand sent prices down 51 percent in the past year in New York, reaching $44.20 a barrel today, the lowest price since 2009.

“When you’ve got an oil-price environment that I see, you can’t be bullish on any commodities,” said London-based Doug King, the chief investment officer at the Merchant Commodity Fund, which manages $260 million. Crude may drop below $40 as U.S. output compounds the surplus, he said.

Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur cut its 2015 forecast of average palm-oil prices by 12 percent to 2,200 ringgit on Dec. 30, citing the drop in crude.

Long-Term Impact

Macquarie Group said in a Jan. 7 report it expects the palm-oil rally to last because of the long-term impact of heavy rains on harvesting, roads and bridges. The effect of damage to facilities on transport and harvesting could help push prices above 2,400 ringgit, Chong Hoe Leong, an analyst at Public Investment Bank Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur, wrote in report today.

At the same time, prices are rising for competing vegetable oils. Soybean oil in Chicago has climbed 5.1 percent from a five-year low on Dec. 2, and canola in Winnipeg is up 16 percent from a four-year low on Sept. 22.

Wet weather is expected to continue over southern parts of Peninsular Malaysia including Johor through Jan. 15, while rain is predicted in western and central Sarawak on Borneo island until Jan. 13, Ambun Dindang, meteorological officer at the weather department, said by telephone Jan. 9.

“The monsoon season is not over, and there’s a risk that bad weather could come back,” CIMB’s Ng said.

For palm grower Yusof, who has been farming for four decades, the floods have already left a lasting impact, compounding losses from last year’s drought.

“This has never happened before,” said Yusof, who estimates he will earn half his monthly income of 2,000 ringgit in January. “My house was surrounded by water. It was scary.”
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 15, 2015, 11:29:24 PM
Malaysia's Jan. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 535,651 Tons(-13% mom): Inter
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 20, 2015, 10:28:28 PM
MALAYSIA'S JAN. 1-20 PALM OIL EXPORTS 709,370 TONS(-21.8% mom): SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Malaysian palm oil shipments for Jan. 1-20
dropped 21.8% from 906,594 tons in Dec. 1-20, Societe Generale
de Surveillance says in e-mailed report today.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 21, 2015, 10:20:56 PM
Palm oil edges up but struggles with grim outlook

Malaysian palm futures slipped to their lowest in nearly two weeks on Tuesday and struggled to stay above RM2,300 as lacklustre export demand and a grim outlook on global commodity markets piled pressure on the tropical oil.

Industry experts say palm prices face a volatile year in 2015 and will be driven by global demand factors, including uncertain market movements in crude and rival edible oils. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board predicted that in its worst scenario, prices could drop to six-year lows of RM1,820 a tonne.

"Going forward, we expect limited near-term catalysts as we gather that a possible weak El Nino and lacklustre biodiesel demand would limit immediate CPO price upside," Kenanga Investment Bank said in a note.


"...we believe that CPO prices are likely to soften in H2 2015 due to recovery in production as well as the effects of deteriorating crude oil prices and strengthening US dollar."

The benchmark April contract had edged up 0.2% to RM2,313 (US$643) per tonne by today's midday break, after falling to RM2,297 in early trade, their lowest since January 7.

Traded volume stood at 16,132 lots of 25 tonnes, above the usual 12,500 lots.   

The ringgit weakened to as much as 3.6130 per US dollar on Tuesday, after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak lowered 2015 economic growth forecasts and increased the government's fiscal deficit target, as the rout in crude prices severely cut into Malaysia's earnings from oil and gas sales.

Analysts say while unfavourable weather in top growers Indonesia and Malaysia could tighten palm oil supply temporarily, the damage to output will not be as bad as initially feared with any El Nino weather phenomenon expected to be weak.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology on Tuesday said that weather models show a low chance of an El Nino after indicators of the climate event eased in recent weeks.

In Malaysia, worries over monsoon flooding have begun to ease, despite occasional warnings by the country's weather office for rains over parts of palm-growing Sarawak.           

"The flood issues are fading and have been mostly factored in," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil have been sluggish this month.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported that palm exports fell 22.9% between January 1-20.

Oil markets dipped on Tuesday as China's economic growth for 2014 undershot a government target and hit its weakest annual expansion in 24 years, adding to worries in energy markets already suffering from slowing demand and oversupply.

In vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract for March fell 1.2% in early Asian trade, while the most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange lost 0.3%. – Reuters, January 20, 2015.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 22, 2015, 10:46:41 PM
Malaysian palm oil price falls to over 2-wk low on technical selling

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in over two weeks on Wednesday, after worries over monsoon floods Borneo's key palm-growing areas triggered a round of technical selling in the tropical oil.
     The ringgit's decline to its weakest since April 2009 was not enough to limit losses in time, traders said.
     "Although the ringgit is weak, the market could not keep up. After prices broke 2,300 ringgit, heavy liquidation and the stop-loss
 order were triggered," said one trader with a foreign commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur.
     The benchmark April contract was down 2.0 percent to 2,273 ringgit ($629) per tonne by Wednesday's close, with prices
 touching 2,270 ringgit, their lowest since Jan. 5.
     Traded volume was at 66,335 lots of 25 tonnes, nearly double the usual average of 35,000 lots.   
     The Malaysian ringgit hit a near six-year low of 3.6250 per dollar as Fitch Ratings warned of a downgrade to the country's
 rating, following government moves to cut its 2015 growth forecast, trim spending and widen its fiscal deficit target.   
     The slump in the ringgit also stoked worries over a gloomy global economic outlook that could hurt commodity prices, including palm
 oil, the world's most traded vegetable oil.
     "All this doesn't bode well ... the ringgit is down, the share market is down," said a second Malaysia-based trader. "I wouldn't be
 surprised if funds are being withdrawn from markets."
     Technicals showed palm oil still targeting a range of 2,214-2,248 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by its wave pattern and a
 Fibonacci ratio analysis, according to Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.
       
     Analysts say flooding in Sarawak, Malaysia's second-largest palm producing state, may not be as damaging to output as initially
 feared, when thunderstorms and rain triggered flash floods across some plantations.   
     "Many areas in Sarawak remain flooded following heavy continuous rainfall over the last three days," said Affin Hwang Capital
 Research in a note on Wednesday.
     "However, as yet, the operations of the timber and plantation companies have not been seriously affected by the floods."
     In other markets, oil edged above $48 a barrel on Wednesday, consolidating after a drop in the previous session, although traders
 and analysts said oversupply and the prospect of inventory rises made further weakness likely.   
     In vegetable oil markets, the U.S. soyoil contract for March overturned earlier gains to fall 0.4 percent in late Asian
 trade, while the most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.8 percent.

  Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1026 GMT
                                                                                                                                       
   Contract        Month    Last   Change     Low    High  Volume
   MY PALM OIL      FEB5    2290   -47.00    2290    2350     185
   MY PALM OIL      MAR5    2278   -55.00    2278    2347    7757
   MY PALM OIL      APR5    2273   -47.00    2270    2338   32011
   CHINA PALM OLEIN MAY5    4894    +8.00    4870    4928  382368
   CHINA SOYOIL     MAY5    5630   +44.00    5582    5654  516624
   CBOT SOY OIL     MAR5   32.71    -7.10   32.65   33.15    9217
   INDIA PALM OIL   JAN5  444.40    -7.10  443.50  451.50     358
   INDIA SOYOIL     FEB5  636.75    -5.15  636.20  644.80   27725
   NYMEX CRUDE      MAR5   47.03    +0.56   46.61   47.13   23486
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: Ļaughing Ģor on January 23, 2015, 02:42:48 AM
Mr Vincent, thank you so much, we love you for the updates!
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 23, 2015, 11:04:33 PM
Thanks for Ļaughing Ģor 's support!  :)
Title: 1,000,000 forumers wants to thank vincent88 !
Post by: Ļaughing Ģor on January 23, 2015, 11:11:37 PM
Thanks for Ļaughing Ģor 's support!  :)

Should be Investlah thank you for your support.
Consistently and non-stop update for us.
Investlah is very fortunate to have you with us.  :clap:
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: KLSE LOSSER on January 23, 2015, 11:12:22 PM
 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 26, 2015, 10:50:38 PM
Malaysia Jan. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 877,730 Tons(-19% mom), SGS Reports
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 26, 2015, 11:08:53 PM
Palm oil drops to weakest in 5 weeks as demand wanes

[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a third session on Monday, dropping to their lowest in nearly five weeks as poor demand from major buyers sparked concern that palm's use in food and fuel industries may continue to slump in coming months.

Palm prices ran up 14 per cent from December to a six-month high of RM2,394 by Jan 15 after monsoon flooding wreaked havoc in parts of Malaysia, the second-biggest grower, inundating estates and destroying infrastructure.

But market players say worries about the devastation have cooled, and even if growers expect another big drop in output this month, waning export demand from India, China and Europe plus the rout in crude oil could offset that.

"Production is down temporarily, but soon it will rise again, and people are worried about how demand will be, with the poor economic growth," said a trader with a foreign commodities firm in Kuala Lumpur.

"We don't know whether China will buy equal or less amounts of edible oil from last year. Biofuel demand is bad, biodiesel operators can't do anything," the trader added.

"These are the two main concerns keeping prices under pressure." The benchmark April contract had dropped 2.5 per cent to RM2,175 (US$601) per tonne by Monday's close, after touching RM2,170 in late trade, the lowest since Dec 23.

Malaysian exports of palm oil products fell 17.7 per cent to 886,189 tonnes between Jan 1-25 from the same period a month before, according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services.

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported that exports for the same period slid 19 per cent.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Association, a growers' group, estimates crude palm oil production fell 24.3 per cent between Jan 1 and 20. Output from Sarawak alone, Malaysia's second-largest palm-growing state, was forecast to have dropped more than 28 per cent in the same period.

Oil prices declined on Monday, with US crude falling close to a nearly six-year low, as Saudi Arabia's new King Salman moved to assuage fears of an unstable transition and any policy change in the world's largest oil exporter.

In other vegetable oil markets, the US soyoil contract for March fell 1.1 per cent in late Asian trade. The most active May soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange lost 1.0 per cent.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 31, 2015, 03:42:18 PM
Palm oil posts worst start to year since 2010 as demand slows

[KUALA LUMPUR] Palm oil capped the biggest January decline since 2010 as demand weakens amid a supply glut.

Futures dropped 5.3 per cent this month, the most since November, as a slump in exports from Malaysia, the largest producer after Indonesia, signals a slowdown in demand. Output in the two top suppliers is set to climb to a record this year.

Palm oil, used in food and fuel, slumped 16 per cent in the past year as a plunge in petroleum costs reduced its allure and global soybean crops headed for an all-time high. Soybean oil fell to a six-year low on Thursday, increasing its attraction as an alternative. Slowing world economies may further hurt demand, said Carey Wong, an analyst at OCBC Investment Research.

"Supply is still going to be pretty robust," Mr Wong said by phone from Singapore. "It's completely unprofitable to process palm into biodiesel."

Futures dropped as much as 1.3 per cent to RM2,106 (US$580) a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, the lowest in more than a month, before closing 0.6 per cent higher at RM2,147. Soybean oil tumbled to 29.32 cents a pound in Chicago on Thursday, the lowest since 2008.

Palm rallied to RM2,394 about two weeks ago, the highest since July, as floods in Malaysia disrupted production. The advance was aided by a weakening ringgit, which touched a five-year low against the dollar on Thursday.

"Supply constraints and depreciation of Malaysian ringgit are supportive of palm prices in the short-term," Rabobank International analysts led by Stefan Vogel wrote in a report. The outlook for a good soybean crop in South America and weak demand including from biodiesel may weigh on prices, they said.

Palm oil has surged to a premium over gas oil of US$111 a ton from a discount of about US$259 in August.

Shipments from Malaysia dropped 18 per cent to 886,189 tons in the first 25 days of January from a month earlier, Intertek, a surveyor, said on Jan 26. Output may climb to a record 20.09 million tons this year from 19.67 million tons in 2014, according to the palm oil board.

Exports from Indonesia fell 13 per cent to 1.97 million tons in December from a month earlier, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association said in Jakarta on Friday. Production may rise to 33 million tons from 31.5 million tons in 2014, said Joko Supriyono, secretary general.

"On the demand side, we have the World Bank cutting the outlook for global economic growth," OCBC's Mr Wong said. "There's also the substitute vegetable oil, soybean oil, at six-year lows. We don't see any positive catalysts."
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 31, 2015, 05:03:46 PM
Output and demand to rise in 2015, say industry experts

GLOBAL supply of palm oil – the world’s most tradeable vegetable oil – will be marginally higher this year with continued demand expected from traditional markets like China, India, Pakistan and the European Union (EU), say industry experts.

Total production from top producers Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand is expected to hit 61.8 million tonnes this year, up 4.3% from 59.3 million tonnes last year.

Global palm oil export will increase by 3.3% to 43.3 million tonnes this year, according to forecast by independent vegetable oils and fats research group, Oil World.

Top producer Indonesia will continue to lead the growth in the global palm oil supply this year, contributing about 32.7 million tonnes from its expanding mature oil palm areas, it adds.

During the period 2013-14, Indonesia produced 31 million tonnes of palm oil and exported about 21 million tonnes, says Indonesian Palm Oil Association executive director Dr Fadhil Hasan.

Lately, there have been dramatic changes to the composition of Indonesia’s palm oil exports, which are now dominated by production in downstream operations in the republic as well as the increase in domestic biofuel consumption.

Meanwhile, palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase slightly to 20.1 million tonnes this year, due to the prolonged dry weather in the early part of 2014 that will result in oil palm stress this year thus affecting fresh fruit bunches.

According to latest statistics on the Malaysian palm oil industry, crude palm oil (CPO) production in Malaysia rose to 19.67 million tonnes in 2014 (19.2 million tonnes in 2013) – thanks to the higher oil extraction rate and new production areas particularly in Sarawak.

The 10 major export destinations for Malaysian palm oil last year were China, India, Pakistan, the EU, the Philippines, Vietnam, the United States, Japan, Iran and Benin, a republic in West Africa. These markets accounted for 12.59 million tonnes or 73% of Malaysia’s total palm oil exports last year.

On the other hand, Thailand is expected to experience poor palm oil output this year at about 2.1 million tonnes because its oil palm areas mainly in the southern region were badly hit by the recent floods.

Indonesia and Malaysia are still the key determinants of the world’s palm oil supply – both countries account for about 85% of the total world production, says industry expert Ling Ah-Hong of Sabah-based Gan Ling Sdn Bhd.

Ling, who is formerly IJM Plantations Bhd executive director as well as former COO Plantations of Hap Seng Consolidated Bhd, says that improving palm oil age in Indonesia is the key to future supply growth.

Malaysia, however, will need to step up on its replanting activities by about 150,000ha to 200,000ha annually to boost its palm oil supply growth, he says.

For this year, Ling estimates palm oil production from Indonesia to hit 32.4 million tonnes, Malaysia 20.3 million tonnes and Thailand 1.8 million tonnes.

Higher demand

South Asian markets namely India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will continue to support palm oil by increasing their imports this year, says Oil World.

It adds that palm oil is expected to continue to dominate India’s imports of oils and fats this year despite the recent increase in import duty on edible oils in the country.

Analysts have pointed out that the growth rate of palm oil import into India could be lower if the price discount between palm oil and its rival soybean oil continues to narrow further.

In recent months, the price discount between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed significantly to between US$50 and US$60 per tonne compared with the traditional price discount of about US$150 per tonne in the past one decade, according to plantation industry expert M.R. Chandran.

For India, total oils and fats consumption is expected to be in the range of 21.5 million tonnes this year, of which imports account for 12.5 million tonnes due to the expected increase in the influx of palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil imports into India is expected to reach 8.3 million tonnes this year, compared with 7.7 million tonnes in 2014, adds Oil World.

Pakistan will also see its palm oil imports increasing by about 5%-7% this year from 2.4 million tonnes estimated in 2014, Oil World says. Pakistan’s intake of palm oil will also hinge on the commodity’s price discount and that of other vegetable oils such as soybean oil, Oil World adds.

Another major palm oil importer this year is the East Asian market namely China, South Korea and Japan.

The palm oil intake in the East Asian market is expected to continue to increase this year due to the current lower price which makes the commodity an attractive option.

Malaysia is the largest supplier and exporter of palm oil to this region, while China remained the largest importer of oils and fats in the East Asian region last year, says Oil World.

European market

As for the EU market, Oil World points out that imports of oils and fats are expected to be lower at 10.3 million tonnes this year (10.7 million tonnes in 2014). This is in line with anticipation of lower consumption at 31.5 million tonnes this year.

According to the European Commission, about 40% of the vegetable oils are used for the EU biofuel production.

With the anticipated lower rapeseed output in Europe due to potential impact from a strong El Nino/La Nina effect in 2015-2016, there will likely be lower demand from the biodiesel sector in the EU.

On the other hand, LMC International Ltd economist Dr Joseph Feyertag says at a recent seminar that there is still good demand for palm oil in the Eastern European markets.

The largest markets for palm oil are found in the Black Sea region, namely Russia, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, he says.

“Outside of this region, palm oil seems to be considerably under utilised,” he adds.

Moving forward, he believes that palm oil still has a long way to go in Eastern European markets.

Weather conditions

Meanwhile, industry expert Ling has cautioned on the possibility of an emerging weak El Nino phenomenon in the first quarter 2015 but “it is unlikely to reduce the growth in global palm oil supply this year.”

For Malaysia, the uncertain weather conditions in recent months could result in mixed impacts on the palm oil production in the Peninsula as well as Sabah and Sarawak.

An El Nino-induced drought could trigger multiple lagged effects on production such as bunch failure, floral abortion and preferential male flowers formation – with effects lasting up to 24 months later.

Hence, production could be reduced by up to 30% depending on the severity of the drought, adds Ling.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 04, 2015, 11:03:25 PM
Palm oil climbs to 1-week high on biodiesel hopes

Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to their highest in a week today, tracking cues from crude markets and as investors pinned hopes that Indonesia's plan to raise biodiesel subsidies will boost its consumption. Indonesia's government on Tuesday proposed a threefold increase in its biodiesel subsidies to 5,000 rupiah (40 US cents) per litre from 1,500 rupiah, aimed at protecting the top producer's fledgling biofuel industry against lower crude prices. While the proposal still needs parliamentary backing before becoming law, analysts are optimistic that higher subsidies will make producing and consuming biodiesel more economic.

"We view this proposal as a potential game changer for the biodiesel industry in Indonesia," said CIMB analyst Ivy Ng, who estimates that the increase will translate to a subsidy of around US$350 (RM1,249) per tonne for biodiesel producers and fuel distributors. "The higher subsidy will significantly raise the CPO-biodiesel breakeven price level and revive biodiesel consumption." The benchmark April contract gained 2.5% to close at RM2,220 (US$624) per tonne today, with prices at their highest since January 28. Total traded volume stood at 66,186 lots of 25 tonnes, above the average 35,000 lots. Traders said the earlier jump in crude prices lifted the Malaysian palm contract which resumed trade on Wednesday. Markets were closed on Monday and Tuesday for public holidays. "Positive commodity and energy market sentiment over the two days of Bursa Malaysia closure likely to stoke further gains in palm future prices today," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia. Oil prices rose in Tuesday US trade after a tumbling dollar sent most commodities rallying, bringing crude's four-day rise to about 19% – its biggest such advance since January 2009. However, prices later slipped on renewed concerns over global demand and swelling stocks, with Brent 53 cents lower at US$57.38 a barrel by 0911 GMT (5.11pm Malaysian time) and US crude down 88 cents to $52.17. Lacklustre export demand to key buyers, coupled with a strong ringgit, however, may limit gains. Cargo surveyors reported that Malaysian exports of palm oil products in January dropped 15% from a month earlier to around 1.11 million tonnes, as shipments to Europe, China and India waned. Meanwhile, the ringgit hit a more than three-week high of 3.546 per dollar today, tracking rallies in oil prices and commodity currencies, and making the palm-priced feedstock more expensive for overseas buyers. – Reuters, February 4, 2015.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 06, 2015, 10:40:48 PM
Palm oil climbs most in 28 months on Indonesian biofuel subsidy

JAKARTA, Feb 5 — Palm oil advanced the most in 28 months on Indonesia’s plans to boost biodiesel subsidies which would expand palm demand in the world’s largest producer and consumer. The parliament’s energy commission and the government approved an increase to 4,000 rupiah (RM1.13) a litre from 1,500 rupiah. The move also needs to be passed by the budget committee in parliament, the directorate general for oil and gas at the Energy & Mineral Resources Ministry said yesterday. Palm oil, used in everything from fuel and candy to instant noodles, slumped 10 per cent in the past year as a plunge in petroleum costs cut its appeal for biodiesel and soybean oil fell to a six-year low. The increase would mean positive margins for biodiesel producers, according to Alvin Tai, an analyst at RHB Investment Bank Bhd. “This law, if passed, would be a positive catalyst for palm oil prices,” Tai said in a report today. “This would help provide a boost to CPO demand assuming the B10 mandate is fully implemented,” he said, referring to crude palm oil and the biodiesel programme. Futures climbed as much as 4.9 per cent to RM2,307 a metric ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today, the biggest intraday advance since October 2012, before trading at RM2,289 by 5:20pm local time. Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate is feasible with the increased subsidy, said Hariyanto Wijaya, a Jakarta-based analyst at PT Mandiri Sekuritas. It will boost palm demand for biodiesel to 1.7 million tons this year from 800,000 tons in 2014, he wrote in a report today. Palm premium A further decline in petroleum costs would reduce the impact of the higher flat-rate subsidy, RHB’s Tai said. Palm oil’s premium over gas oil has expanded to US$118 a ton from a discount of US$259 in August. Brent crude lost 48 per cent in 2014 and has extended the decline by 5.1 per cent this year. Higher use in biodiesel could boost crude palm consumption in Indonesia by 1.5 million tons in 2015, said Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd. The move may spur PT Pertamina, the biggest fuel distributor, to hold more tenders to buy biodiesel, she said in a report. “Hopefully yes,” Ahmad Bambang, the marketing director, said by text message, when asked whether a 4,000 rupiah subsidy would encourage the company to hold tenders. The country’s target for biodiesel production is 2015 is 3.4 million kilolitres, said Dadan Kusdiana, director of bioenergy at the Energy & Mineral Resources Ministry. Output last year was 1.7 million kilolitres, half the 3.4 million goal, he said in a text message. — Bloomberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 10, 2015, 10:44:35 PM
Malaysia Feb. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 298,910 Tons(-16% mom): Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 10, 2015, 10:58:21 PM
Malaysian palm oil shipments tumble most in seven years

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 10 — Palm oil exports in Malaysia, the world’s biggest producer after Indonesia, slumped the most in seven years in January as a plunge in energy prices and record global oilseed supply cut demand. Sales decreased 22 per cent to 1.18 million metric tons from a month earlier, the Malaysia Palm Oil Board said in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday. That’s the biggest drop since January 2008 and the least shipped since February 2011, MPOB data show. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey published February 6 was for a 15 per cent decline to 1.29 million tons. Imports fell 0.5 per cent to 89,908 tons, according to board data. Palm oil, used in food and fuel, lost 12 per cent in the past year as a plunge in petroleum costs reduced its allure as a biodiesel feedstock and global soybean crops headed for an all- time high. Soybean oil fell to a six-year low last month, increasing its attraction as an alternative. Demand may shift to soybean oil, DBS Bank Ltd wrote in a report dated January 27. “Exports disappointed significantly on the downside and that says to me that on the demand side people are struggling with paying palm oil prices at these levels,” Wayne Gordon, a Singapore-based commodities analyst at UBS Group AG, said by phone February 10. “There’s a bit of an arm wrestle with soyoil. Palm oil price has to decline to buy demand.” Futures fell 0.3 per cent to RM2,311 (US$646) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives by 4.11pm in Kuala Lumpur. Soybean oil fell to 29.32 cents a pound on January 29, the lowest since December 2008 and has narrowed it’s premium over palm to about US$54 a ton from an average of US$155 in the past five years. Export slump Data from surveyor Intertek show exports may decline further this month. Shipments dropped 16 per cent to 298,910 tons in the first 10 days of February from the same period a month earlier, the company said February 10. Rising US crude oil supplies contributed to a global glut that drove prices almost 50 per cent lower last year. That’s removed the biodiesel portion of demand for palm oil, said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental Singapore Pte. Production tumbled 15 per cent to 1.16 million tons, the lowest level since February 2011, and reserves fell 12 per cent to 1.77 million tons, palm oil board data show. That compares with estimates of 1.2 million tons for production and 1.75 million tons for stockpiles in the Bloomberg survey. Output contracted for the fifth straight month as floods from late December through early January combined with the impact of dry weather in early 2014 to worsen the usual drop in production at this time of year, according to Michael Greenall, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in Kuala Lumpur. Output is typically lowest in January and February each year. Monsoon floods The year-end monsoon that hit the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia resulted in the worst floods since 1972, according to Maybank Investment Bank Bhd While some damage from the floods may be seen for another two to three months, production will soon start its up cycle, said Gordon. Concerns over production are short-term as Indonesian output may accelerate, he said. Indonesia may produce 33 million tons in 2014-2015, according to a unit of the US Department of Agriculture. Output in the previous season was 30.5 million tons, the Foreign Agricultural Service said in a report dated January 28. “Stocks will start to build, particularly if we don’t see some recovery on the demand side,” said Gordon. “I’d be a seller of palm oil at these levels.” — Bloomberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 10, 2015, 11:06:33 PM
New Formula to Set Biodiesel Price in Indonesia to Strengthen Biofuel Industry

Although the Indonesian government has already announced that biodiesel subsidies have been raised to IDR 4,000 per liter (from IDR 1,500 per liter in 2014) and bioethanol to IDR 3,000 per liter (from IDR 2,000 last year) - in a move to protect the domestic biofuel industry as production costs exceed market prices amid the low global palm oil prices -, Indonesian biodiesel producers are eager to see the country’s biodiesel price is set based on a different benchmark than the Mean of Platts Singapore (MoPS).

Over the past four months the benchmark MoPS has been below USD $450 per ton, implying that Indonesian biodiesel producers have to absorb losses as palm oil prices are currently near USD $650 per ton. Association of Indonesian Biodiesel Producers (Aprobi) official Paulus Tjakrawan estimates that the losses that are incurred by Indonesian biodiesel producers (due to the low MoPS price) is about USD $900,000 per day. As a result, several biodiesel producers have lowered or stopped altogether their biodiesel supplies to state-owned energy company Pertamina. Good news is that the parliament’s Commission VII overseeing energy affairs last week agreed to implement a new formula for the formulation of the biodiesel price. This new benchmark will not be based on the MoPS but on current crude palm oil (CPO) prices. The formula will also include biofuel production costs (estimated at about USD $188 per day) as well as a three percent margin. Aprobi is convinced that one of the keys to foster a successful domestic biodiesel industry is this new benchmark price.

New formula: CPO + USD$ 188/ton) x 870 kg/m3.

The government’s mandatory biodiesel program (known as B10) was introduced in August 2013 when the mandatory content of fatty acid methyl ester (derived from palm oil) in biodiesel was raised from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. This new regulation was designed to limit costly oil imports (for domestic fuel use) which cause a wide trade and current account deficit. The mandatory content in biodiesel will be raised to 15 percent (B15) in September 2015, and to 20 percent (B20) in January 2016. However, the ambitious program has been plagued by several obstacles such as logistical and infrastructure hurdles, as well as recent sharply falling crude oil prices making biofuels a less attractive alternative. Aprobi also hopes that when the government implements the new benchmark biodiesel formula, Pertamina (the distributor of biodiesel in Indonesia) will follow this new benchmark as well, and not only for new tenders but also for contracts that were signed during the first two years of the program (2013-2014).

In 2014, Indonesia consumed a total of 1.7 million tons of biodiesel, far from the government target of 3.5 million tons. A problem was that Pertamina was late in opening tenders due to disagreement regarding the price. Meanwhile, exports of biodiesel are expected to decline to 1.4 million tons in 2015 (from 1.6 million tons in the preceding year) due to diminished demand from the Eurozone. However, Indonesia is eager to tap new markets for its biodiesel in China, India, Australia and the USA.

The government’s new biodiesel policy (higher subsidies and the implementation of the new formula) have boosted palm oil futures due to expected higher palm oil demand in Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer. On the Indonesia Stock Exchange, listed palm oil producers saw their shares soar on Friday (06/02). On Monday (09/02), however, these shares declined due to investors’ appetite for profit taking. Still, these palm oil companies are expected to see stronger shares this week.

Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 10, 2015, 11:22:41 PM
MPOB JAN Data                                         
                                              DECEMBER(r)       JANUARY(p)           DIFFERENCE      QUANTITY (%)
PRODUCTION (Tonnes)                 1,364,864           1,160,687              (204,177)            (14.96)           
INVENTORY  (Tonnes)                   2,015,789           1,770,299              (245,490)            (12.18)
EXPORT (Tonnes)                         1,519,622           1,184,284               (335,338)           (22.07)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 13, 2015, 11:11:23 PM
Malaysia’s CPO tax resumes in March

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 12:

Malaysia will resume taxing exports of crude palm oil in March, a minister said today, after scrapping the duty for five months in a bid to spur demand and reduce bloated stockpiles.

“After studying various scenarios … the government has decided that the export tax regime will continue from March,” said Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Datuk Amar Douglas Uggah Embas.

Uggah said the tax rate would depend on palm oil prices, adding that the government would announce details on the tax policy on Feb 16.

Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer of crude palm oil (CPO) after Indonesia, exempted CPO exports from taxes from October to December, later extending the policy to the end of February.

Increased supply and slack global demand have pressured palm oil prices which dropped 15% last year.





The benchmark palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was little changed at RM2,283 per tonne by the midday break today, well above a six-week low of RM2,106 hit in January.

Malaysia usually calculates its crude palm oil tax with average monthly prices provided by the industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, where a monthly average above RM2,250 will trigger tax rates that start from 4.5%. But the government makes the final decision.

Uggah said combined crude palm oil output from Malaysia and Indonesia is expected to rise to 51.1 million tonnes in 2015 from 49.2 million tonnes last year.

Uggah said the decline in palm oil prices was also due to higher production of competing vegetable oils, including soybean oil.

“It is important for the palm oil industry to assess this scenario and explore measures that would contribute towards strengthening CPO prices as well as increasing exports of Malaysian palm oil.”
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 20, 2015, 02:35:25 PM
*MALAYSIA'S FEB. 1-15 PALM OIL EXPORTS 510,832 TONS (-6.3% mom): SGS

Malaysia’s Feb. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 508,955 Tons(-5% mom): Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 20, 2015, 02:38:08 PM
Malaysia surprises by keeping crude palm oil exports tax free


* Step is surprise after minister had said taxes would resume

* Move likely to support prices

* Rate has been scrapped since October (Adds detail, background)

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Malaysia has kept tax on exports of crude palm oil at zero for March, a government circular showed on Monday, extending a duty-free policy held since October.

The move, which is likely to underpin prices, comes as a surprise as Malaysia's plantation industries and commodities minister said last week the country was planning to resume taxing exports from March.

The rate was scrapped from October to December, and later extended to end-February.

Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, calculated a reference price of 2,232.88 ringgit ($627) per tonne for March crude palm oil, effectively incurring an export duty of zero percent.

Increased global edible oil supplies and slowing demand have pressured palm oil prices which dropped 15 percent last year.

Authorities in Indonesia and Malaysian, which account for 85 percent of global palm oil production, are giving financial incentives in a bid to boost demand and support prices of the tropical product.

Indonesia has approved a threefold increase in biodiesel subsidies which is likely to take effect next month. ($1 = 3.5620 ringgit) (Reporting by Al-Zaquan Amer Hamzah and Anuradha Raghu; Writing by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Joseph Radford)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 23, 2015, 11:57:03 PM
Palm Oil Update Indonesia: CPO Export & Prices Weaker in January 2015

Indonesian crude palm oil (CPO) exports rose about 15 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 1.8 million tons in January 2015 from the same month last year. However, on a month-on-month (m/m) basis Indonesian CPO exports fell 8 percent in the first month of 2015. Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director at the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), said that CPO exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy declined in January as demand from nearly all main CPO export markets, particularly China and India, fell at the year-start.

Other factors that contributed to Indonesia’s declining crude palm oil exports in January 2015 were large global stockpiles of edible oils (partly caused by worldwide low edible oil demand which has weakened to its lowest level since October 2009), low global oil prices, and fewer supplies of CPO to the biodiesel market. Recent floods in main CPO producing regions in Malaysia were unable to lift CPO prices. Hasan said that the average CPO price in January was USD $669.6 per metric ton (down 1 percent from the price in the preceding month). Indonesia’s benchmark CPO price for February 2015 (which is set by Indonesia’s Trade Ministry and is used to calculate the country’s CPO export tax) is USD $648 per metric ton. The Indonesian government sets a CPO export tax when this benchmark price (calculated using international and local CPO prices) exceeds USD $750 per metric ton (if the price falls below USD $750 per metric ton then a zero percent tariff is set). However, the government recently indicated that it may lower the USD $750 per metric ton threshold as palm oil prices have been below USD $750 per metric ton for four months implying that the government has not been able to collect any export tax income from this sector.

According to data from Gapki, exports of Indonesian CPO (and its derivatives) to China, the world’s second-largest economy, plunged 40 percent (m/m) to 196.8 thousand tons in January. Meanwhile, exports to India, the world’s largest CPO importer, fell 37.7 percent to 298.3 thousand tons. Slowing demand in these two vital CPO importing countries leads to pressures on CPO prices. Furthermore, Indonesian CPO exports to the USA fell 15 percent (m/m), to African countries by a total of 8 percent (m/m) and to the Eurozone by 3.6 percent (m/m). On the other hand, Indonesian CPO exports to Pakistan surged 59 percent (m/m) to 125.6 thousand tons in January 2015, while CPO exports to the Middle East rose about 9 percent (m/m) to 190.2 thousand tons.

Contrary to initial expectation, Indonesia’s recent decision to triple biodiesel subsidies to IDR 4,000 per liter (a move to support the country’s biodiesel companies as biodiesel prices are higher than diesel prices) is not expected to boost CPO demand significantly due to the large drop in crude oil prices since June 2014. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, introduced an ambitious mandatory palm oil-based biodiesel program (known as B10) in 2013 in an effort to curb the country’s trade and current account deficits (primarily caused by costly oil imports). However, low crude oil prices in combination with logistical and infrastructure issues hinders full implementation of the program.

Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export:
 

                              2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014¹   2015¹
Production
(million metric tons)   19.2   19.4   21.8   23.5   26.5    27.0    31.0    32.5
Export
(million metric tons)   15.1   17.1   17.1   17.6   18.2    21.2    20.0    22.3
Export
(in USD billion)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on February 25, 2015, 10:31:43 PM
Malaysia Feb. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 815,763 Tons(-7.1% mom), SGS Reports

Malaysia’s Feb. 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 827,273 Tons(-6.6% mom): Intert
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 02, 2015, 08:00:59 PM
MALAYSIA'S FEB. PALM OIL EXPORTS 953,053 (-14.5%) TONS: INTERTEK

*MALAYSIA'S FEB. PALM OIL EXPORTS 993,376 TONS (-10.4% mom): SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 04, 2015, 12:49:55 AM
Expert expects lower not higher palm oil output this year

KUALA LUMPUR, March 3 — Palm oil output forecasts that show the Malaysian harvest expanding to a record are too optimistic, according to Dorab Mistry, who signalled that investors should focus on supply as two low cycles coincide. “Production in Malaysia in 2015 will not exceed 2014,” the director at Godrej International Ltd said in an e-mail on Feb 17, reiterating comments he made in November. “This is and was contrary to the consensus view on production. I believe the market will wake up after March 4,” wrote Mistry, who’s scheduled to present his price outlook at a palm and lauric oils conference in Kuala Lumpur tomorrow. While palm oil declined in the past year as a plunge in energy prices cut the allure of biofuels and global oilseed crops surged, lower-than-expected output from the top producers may support prices in 2015. Supply growth from Indonesia, which more than doubled its subsidy for palm-based biofuels last month, will slow this year, according to Derom Bangun, chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Board. Indonesia and Malaysia account for more than 80 percent of world supplies. “The market is focusing on the decline in crude oil prices and the Indonesian biodiesel mandate,” wrote Mistry, who’s traded palm for more than three decades. “To my mind, the story for 2015 will be production.” Futures, which fell 16 per cent in the past 12 months as crude oil slumped, traded 0.3 per cent lower at RM2,365 a metric ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives at 10.50am in Kuala Lumpur. Prices surged the most since 2010 on Feb 5 after Indonesia announced the increase in biodiesel subsidies, and are 4.4 per cent higher in 2015. Big impact The seasonal lean period, which typically occurs at the start of the year, will run concurrently with a biological low cycle from November to June, Mistry wrote in the Feb 17 e-mail. The impact on output can be considerable when the two come together, he said in November. A drop in production may help reduce stockpiles. Reserves in Malaysia contracted 12 per cent to 1.77 million tons in January, the lowest level since July, even as exports slumped, according to data from the country’s palm board. Mistry’s outlook for supply contrasts with the Palm Oil Board and the US Department of Agriculture, both of which forecast a record crop. Output may rise to a record 20.09 million tons in 2015 from 19.67 million tons last year, the Palm Oil Board says. Production may gain 1.7 per cent to 20.5 million tons in the 2014-2015 year, the USDA estimates. The last time Malaysia posted a drop in annual output was 2012. Biodiesel programme In November, Mistry told a meeting in Bandung, Indonesia that he expected no change in the size of Malaysia’s harvest this year, while saying the direction of prices would depend on the biodiesel programme in Indonesia. In October, Mistry put Malaysian 2014 supply at 19.6 million tons to 19.8 million tons. Sime Darby Bhd, the world’s biggest-listed producer, said Feb 26 that Malaysian palm output may drop one per cent in 2015. The decline would be spurred by the lagged impact of dry weather early last year and replanting of trees, the executive vice-president of plantations, Franki Anthony Dass, told reporters. “We expect production to slow down in the first half of 2015 as yield cycle is likely to turn negative in both Malaysia and Indonesia,” Vasanth Subramanian, senior vice-president of palm at Olam International Ltd, said in an e-mail in response to questions. “We also expect some impact on production from droughts last year both in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, production should start to grow again from May 2015.” Indonesian output will be 31 million tons in 2015 from 29.5 million last year due to slower expansion, Bangun, chairman of the palm board, said in an interview on Feb. 18. That’s below the 33 million seen by Joko Supriyono of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association. The USDA also predicts 33 million. “The world needs about 160 million tons of fats and oils supply per year, with demand growing four million to five million tons annually,” Bangun said. “Now I see Indonesia is slowing too, so fundamentally there could be a shortfall in supply.” — Bloomberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 09, 2015, 11:01:11 PM
Biodiesel programme to maintain palm oil's long-term prognosis

Kuala Lumpur: Although the price outlook for palm oil in the medium term looks mixed, a policy switch to boost the biodiesel programme will very much maintain its long-term prognosis.

The successful implementation of the biodiesel programme in palm oil producing countries would offset the high inventory, subsequently firming up prices.

In this regard, the Plantation Industries and Commodities Ministry has indicated the country's commitment in implementing the B10 Programme in other sectors, such as industry and power generation, allowing domestic annual palm oil consumption to reach 1.2 million tonnes.

The programme involves the blending of 10 per cent palm methyl ester with 90 per cent fossil fuel diesel.

Speakers at the three-day Palm and Lauric Oils Conference and Exhibition (POC) 2015, which ended on March 4, suggested that crude palm oil (CPO) price would firm up to an average of RM2,260 a tonne for the first half due to lower production.

The decline in production was attributed to the recent floods, but as local planters start to recover, it could rise well above 2.5 million tonnes in the fourth quarter.

The anticipated stronger production, coupled with the slump in Brent crude oil, would weigh down on CPO price, pushing it down to an average of RM1,770 a tonne for the second half of this year.

The third month May futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended at RM2,288 per tonne on Friday while on the physical front, it stood at RM2,350 per tonne.

LMC International Ltd Chairman James Fry expects Brent to remain under pressure due to the expected increase in US interest rates, and average at US$60 per barrel this year.

However, Gavin Maguire, Editor-in-Charge, Commodities and Energy, Asia at Thomson Reuters said the low price might work as a competitive advantage for palm oil against its rivals such as soy, rapeseed and sunflower seed oils.

"Palm oil used to be the cheapest guy in town, so it should continue to be that to continue to win more business," he added.

The conference, themed "Trade, Hedge and Be Ahead of the Markets" and organised by Bursa Malaysia, saw close to 2,000 attendees from 67 countries representing the entire value chain including plantation holders, manufacturers, fund managers, traders, financiers, derivatives participants, and logistics and infrastructure providers. – Bernama
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 10, 2015, 11:15:37 PM
(BFW) Malaysia's March 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 247,698 Tons (-19.3% mom): SGS

(BFW) Malaysia's March 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 262,168 (-12.3%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 10, 2015, 11:18:47 PM
*MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL EXPORTS 0.97M TONS
*MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL STOCKS 1.74M TONS
*MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.12M TONS


By Ranjeetha Pakiam

      (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, fell 1.5% to 1.74m metric tons in Feb. from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in e-mailed statement on Tuesday.

• Output declined 3.4% to 1.12m tons, while exports dropped 18% to 971,640 tons

• NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 1.67m tons, output at 1.14m tons and shipments at 1.08m tons


Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 10, 2015, 11:22:09 PM
Malaysian palm stocks at 7-month low, February exports weakest since 2007

Malaysian palm oil stocks sank to a seven-month low at February-end as floods in Borneo and less working days due to the Lunar New Year break cut output levels, but the drop was smaller than expected as overseas sales hit their weakest since 2007

While lower stockpiles in Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer after Indonesia, could support benchmark prices of the tropical oil, a bleak export demand outlook amid ample supplies of rival soyoil means gains will be capped. "Everything is not exactly dandy on the export front," said Lingam Supramaniam, director at Malaysia-based commodities firm Pelindung Bestari. "We anticipate lots of competition from Indonesia and South America as we move forward."

Data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Tuesday showed inventories fell 1.5% from a month ago to 1.74 million tonnes, their smallest since July. A Reuters poll had pegged stockpiles to fall 3% to an eight-month low of 1.67 million tonnes. Malaysia's crude palm oil production fell 3.4% to 1.12 million tonnes, their weakest since February 2011, just slightly more than estimates of 1.13 million tonnes. Poor export demand, however, prevented a steeper drop in stocks.

The MPOB said shipments of Malaysian palm oil tumbled 18.4% to 971,640 tonnes. The last time Malaysian exports were this weak was in July 2007 when only 947,697 tonnes were shipped, according to Reuters data. Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services data released earlier showed that Malaysian palm oil exports fell 12.3% between March 1-10 from the corresponding period last month, as Europe and China slashed imports of the tropical oil. Ahead of the MPOB report, the benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.6% to RM2,257 (US$611) a tonne, down for a fifth day.

Leading vegetable oil analysts at a palm conference last week said they expect palm prices to rise in the near term on tighter supplies at top growers Indonesia and Malaysia, but painted a gloomy outlook for the second half citing a robust recovery in output and lacklustre demand. "Albeit trying to clutch the straw of optimism from the end-stocks, production will gain traction in the coming months and prices will certainly re-test fresh lows, before it turns better," said Lingam in Kuala Lumpur. – Reuters, March 10, 2015.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 16, 2015, 07:30:33 PM
Palm hits lowest in nearly 6 weeks on Malaysia's export tax decision

[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysian palm oil futures slid to their lowest in nearly six weeks on Monday, after a decision by the second-largest producer to impose export taxes next month fuelled worries that price-sensitive buyers would switch to rival edible oils.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange tumbled as much as to RM2,172 (S$815) a tonne in early trade, its lowest since Feb. 4, before ending the session at RM2,199, down 1.7 per cent.

Malaysia, the world's No 2 supplier of palm oil, said on Monday it would raise export duties for the crude grade to 4.5 per cent for April, ending a duty-free policy held since September.

The decision made market participants jittery that the additional tax could further curb demand for the tropical oil.

"With the imposition of the export tax, market direction is looking a little murky," said Lingam Supramaniam, director at Malaysia-based commodities firm Pelindung Bestari.

"Market continues to reel from demand concerns ... the huge US carryout and South American output will put downward pressure on palm prices."

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said exports of Malaysian palm oil products for the first half of March fell 3.4 per cent compared to Feb 1-15, as India and Europe cut back purchases.

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance showed exports for the same period fell 5.2 per cent.

Total traded volume on Monday stood at 50,354 lots of 25 tonnes, much higher than the usual 35,000 lots.

Analysts said palm prices, however, may draw support from a decision by Indonesia to raise its biodiesel blend to 15 per cent from 10 per cent as early as next week, aimed at boosting use of palm-based biodiesel.

"We estimate that a 15 per cent blend could potentially raise Indonesia's biodiesel consumption to 5.5 million kilolitres per annum, from 1.8 million kilolitres in 2014," CIMB analyst Ivy Ng said in a note on Monday.

The top producer may also introduce tax breaks for crude palm oil producers to support the mandate, energy ministry officials said on Monday.

Elsewhere, Brent crude oil fell to around US$54 a barrel on Monday, its lowest for more than a month, on rising global inventories and signs of a possible nuclear deal with Tehran that could allow more Iranian oil exports.

In vegetable oil markets, the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange lost 1.5 per cent in late Asian trade, while the US soyoil contract for May was down 0.3 per cent.

REUTERS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 22, 2015, 04:26:50 PM
Malaysia's March 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 652,837 Tons: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 22, 2015, 04:28:40 PM
Indonesia plans levy on crude palm exports instead of tax threshold cut

Indonesia will impose a levy of US$50 (RM186) a tonne on exports of crude palm oil when prices fall below a threshold triggering a monthly tax on shipments overseas, the chief economics minister said.

When prices of crude palm oil fall below the threshold of US$750 a tonne on average, the world's top producer of the tropical oil cuts the monthly tax on its CPO exports to zero. Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures have fallen more than a fifth over the last year, and ended yesterday at RM2,160 per tonne.Southeast Asia's biggest economy set its crude palm oil export tax for March at zero, unchanged since October last year. Indonesian officials are preparing new rules for a charge of US$50 on every tonne of CPO shipped at the zero export tax rate, Sofyan Djalil said, with the funds going to help pay for biodiesel subsidies announced in recent weeks. "At any (CPO) price we will take US$50 a tonne," he said, making clear that when the CPO export tax kicked in, the government would allocate US$50 a tonne to its biodiesel fund from the revenue earned.

The measure will go to Indonesian President Joko Widodo for approval on his March 30 return from overseas trips. Indonesia ramped up biodiesel subsidies last month, in a bid to protect its biofuels industry against lower prices of crude and cut costly imports of diesel. But a subsequent decision to boost the minimum bio content in diesel fuel to 15% from 10% increased the amount of funds needed to pay the subsidies for the higher volumes of biodiesel. To secure processing supplies, Djalil said the government may also require CPO producers to allocate 15% of total output for domestic use, but gave no further details. A major industry group this week said the government was looking to lower the threshold for the monthly export tax, to between US$500 and US$600 a tonne. The CPO export tax, aimed to help processing industries and secure domestic supplies, rises to a maximum of 22.5%, depending on how far above US$750 average prices climb. Before the recent changes, Indonesia's CPO production was seen rising 7% to 31.5 million tonnes, with exports falling 500,000 tonnes to 19.5 million, industry estimates show. Major palm oil firms operating in Indonesia include PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology, Malaysia's Sime Darby and Singapore-based Wilmar International Ltd. – Reuters, March 21, 2015.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 25, 2015, 10:07:39 PM
Malaysia's March 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 856,474 (+3.5%) Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 31, 2015, 09:39:14 PM
SURVEYORS EXPORT REPORT

Surveyor     1-31/Mar           1-28/Feb        Difference/MT          Difference/%
SGS             1,156,947           953,053           203,894                   21.39
ITS              1,140,355           993,376           146,979                    14.8
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 01, 2015, 11:10:57 PM
VEGOILS-Palm falls; Indonesia, Malaysia tax policies in focus

* Indonesia sets CPO export tax for April at zero
 
    * Palm oil to fall to 2,146 ringgit -technicals
 
    * Malaysian GST seen weakening April exports, prices

 (Updates throughout)
    By Fergus Jensen
    JAKARTA, March 31 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged down on Tuesday as traders took profits after a rally the day before and after Indonesia kept its palm oil export tax at zero for April.
    By Tuesday's close the benchmark June contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives was down 1.19 percent at 2,165 ringgit ($585) a tonne. Total traded volume stood at 35,441 lots of 25 tonnes, just above the daily average of 35,000 lotstraded.
    Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in March rose 21.4 percent to 1.16 million tonnes from 953,053 tonnes shipped in February, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) said on Tuesday.
    According to cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance, Malaysian palm oil exports over the same period rose 14.8 percent to 1,140,355 tonnes from 993,376 tonnes shipped during February. 
    "Normally traders buy on rumours and sell on facts," said a trader with foreign commodities brokerage, noting that the increase in Malaysian palm oil exports had earlier been factored into prices and that traders were concerned about Indonesia's export tax remaining at zero.
    The market is also focusing on Malaysia's plans to implement a goods and services tax that is seen affecting shipments and sales of the edible oil in April.
    "A lot of the plantations are pushing their products out this month. When it comes to April our exports are expected to be weak," the trader said. "The GST will have a huge impact on our whole economy."
    While palm oil itself is exempt from the GST, exporters and traders will need to apply for tax refunds from customs, potentially reducing their operations' liquidity, he said.
    "From crude to the refinery they can claim back, but the process and duration for claims is unknown."
    Golden Agri-Resources Ltd, the world's second biggest oil palm planter by acreage, expects its palm and palm kernel oil production to rise around 5 percent this year, coming in at the lower end of a projected annual growth rate as dry weather hurts yields, potentially providing some price support.
 
   
    In other vegetable oils, the U.S. soyoil May contract
slipped 0.56 percent during late Asian trading, while the most
active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian
Commodity Exchange lost 0.74 percent.
    Brent crude oil dropped towards $55 a barrel on Tuesday as
Iran and six world powers entered a final day of talks over a
nuclear deal that could see the energy-rich country increase oil
exports to world markets.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 06, 2015, 11:16:31 PM
Palm oil hits 2-week high after Jakarta’s export levy

KUALA LUMPUR, April 6 — Palm oil advanced to the highest level in more than two weeks after Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, said it will impose export levies to fund biodiesel subsidies as well as replanting, research and development. Shippers will pay a levy of US$50 (RM181) a metric ton for palm oil and US$30 for processed products starting this month, Sofyan Djalil, coordinating minister for economic affairs, said April 4. The government will keep the threshold for application of a separate export tax at US$750 a ton, Djalil said. Palm, used in everything from fuel and candy to instant noodles, slumped 16 per cent in the past year as a plunge in petroleum costs cut its appeal for biodiesel and soybean oil fell to a six-year low. Indonesian prices may drop by about the amount of the levy, according to Wayne Gordon, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Singapore. That would be negative for producers, while refiners may benefit as utilisation rates in biodiesel will rise and margins improve, he said. “In the near term, upstream have a headwind from the tax, downstream get a tailwind,” Gordon said by phone. “The longer term is that if they can get the biodiesel sector sorted out in Indonesia, this is a net positive for the whole sector.” Futures climbed as much as 0.9 per cent to RM2,211 a ton on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives today, the highest level since March 20, before trading at RM2,207 by the end of the morning session in Kuala Lumpur. Biofuel demand Indonesia has promoted biofuel use to help absorb rising supplies of the world’s most-traded cooking oil and to cut carbon emissions. The country boosted the mandated amount of palm blending in diesel to 10 per cent from 7.5 per cent in 2013, and ordered power plants to mix 20 per cent in 2014.

The biodiesel subsidy was raised in February to 4,000 rupiah (RM1.12) a liter from 1,500 rupiah and the mandated blending for diesel will increase to 15 per cent in April. The country may consume 10 million tons of palm oil in 2015 with about half being used for biodiesel, Trade Minister Rachmat Gobel said today. Palm oil production in Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest grower, probably climbed for the first time in seven months in March, according to a Bloomberg survey. Output is typically lowest in January and February each year. “Seasonal production is starting to accelerate,” said Gordon, who expects significant increases in demand from Indonesia’s biodiesel sector may take 18 months to two years. “So I can’t see how that’s a really bullish story for palm prices more generally,” he said. Expectations for a further decline in crude oil prices and a stronger ringgit could cap gains, Gordon said. Palm’s premium over gas oil has expanded to US$87.72 a ton on April 6 from a discount of about US$259 in August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Brent crude declined by 3.1 per cent this year after plunging 48 per cent in 2014. Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened 1.2 per cent against the dollar today, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 09, 2015, 10:00:43 PM
Malaysia’s March palm stocks seen up, first gain in four months

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s palm oil stocks likely rose for the first time in four months in March as higher output in the world’s second-largest producer of the tropical oil offset export demand, a Reuters poll showed.

Rising supplies of palm, coming at a time when the market is bracing for record harvests of rival oilseeds, will dent prices of the tropical oil that fell more than six per cent in March – their worst monthly showing since August last year.

A median forecast by six planters, traders and analysts show Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) production probably rose 17.7 per cent from a month ago to 1.32 million tonnes in March, the first such rise since August last year.

In February this year, output hit its weakest since early 2011, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed.

Industry players expect production to pick up pace as yields in the top-producing Borneo region recover.

“In February, it was Peninsular Malaysia’s output that picked up a lot, not Sabah,” said Phang Loy Fatt, an official with the marketing division of Malaysian planter Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd.

“When you come to March, both sides will increase.”

The Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak supplied almost half of Malaysia’s total palm in 2014.

Malaysian palm oil exports are forecast at 1.15 million tonnes in March, up 18.3 percent from February when shipments tumbled to an eight-year low.

But analysts said this was not an indication of real demand as sales were driven by a rush to book CPO shipments ahead of a revival of Malaysian export duties from April that ends a duty-free policy held since September.

“The monthly exports of palm oil staged a good pick-up month-on-month due potentially to the rush by producers to export CPO ahead of the 4.5 per cent export tax to be imposed on April 1,” CIMB analyst Ivy Ng said.

Malaysian end-March palm oil stocks were pegged at 1.75 million tonnes, up 0.2 percent from February, the first monthly rise since November 2014.

Respondents’ forecasts ranged for March stocks to drop by two per cent to climb by more than 10 per cent.

The median figures from the survey imply domestic consumption of 239,032 tonnes in March.

The market is now keeping an eye on a proposal by top grower Indonesia to impose levies on exports of its crude and processed palm oil that could be approved this week.

Benchmark palm prices are currently at RM2,214 a tonne. — Reuters
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 12, 2015, 11:35:25 PM
CPO futures to trade up to RM2,100 next week

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are expected to trade lower next week, moving between RM2,000 and RM2,100 a tonne.

Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh said heavy CPO stocks and higher production would likely be the key factors driving the commodity prices. "The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's data for March released today shows that the stocks increased by 7.02 per cent to 1.87 million tonnes from 1.74 million tonnes in February.

"In terms of production, the CPO output rose 33.27 per cent to 1.49 million tonnes against 1.12 million tonnes previously following good weather conditions," he said. However, he said as the CPO exports improved by 21.52 per cent to 1.18 million tonnes last month from 972,646 tonnes in February, it would reduce inventories and help support the prices. "It's a win-win situation," he added. For the week just-ended, the futures market was traded between RM2,100 and RM2,300 a tonne, mainly influenced by the Chicago soybean market and the currency movement. On a Friday-to-Friday basis, April 2015 and May 2015 fell RM58 each toRM2,120 a tonne and RM2,138, respectively, while June 2015 depreciated RM63 to RM2,128 and July 2015 was RM59 lower at RM2,121. Weekly turnover rose to 235,413 lots from 147,734 lots last week while open interest widened to 225,293 contracts versus 188,415 contracts previously. On the physical market, April South down RM50 to RM2,160 a tonne from lastweek's RM2,210 per tonne.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 14, 2015, 11:02:54 PM
Palm Seen Sinking to Six-Year Low by Mistry as Output Swells

Palm oil, the world’s most used cooking oil, may slump to a six-year low in the second half as supplies expand and reserves accumulate in producing countries, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur may retreat to 1,900 ringgit ($512) a metric ton, a level last seen in March 2009, Mistry said in remarks prepared for a conference in Beijing. Prices will trade between 2,100 and 2,300 ringgit until May, he said, abandoning a March forecast for a rally to 2,500 ringgit.

Palm oil, used in everything from fuel to instant noodles and candy, lost 19 percent in the past year as the collapse in petroleum costs cut the appeal of cooking oils as biofuel and as global supplies of soybeans climbed to a record. While output in Malaysia, the biggest grower after Indonesia, may continue to decline until June, a recovery in the second half will boost stockpiles and pressure prices, Mistry said.




“The problem for palm oil bulls is that we are likely to see a very good recovery in production in the second half of 2015,” Mistry, who has traded cooking oils for more than three decades, said in a speech prepared for delivery on Monday. “Also, the differential between prices of RBD olein and crude degummed soya oil has narrowed in favor of soya oil.”

Prices fell in three of the past four years as output expanded to the highest ever in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for 86 percent of global supplies. Futures closed at 2,131 ringgit on Monday, down 6 percent this year. Soybean oil in Chicago slumped in January to the lowest since 2008, cutting the premium to palm to almost half the average in the past five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Market Share

The premium of soybean oil over refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein needs to expand to $70 a ton from about $50 now to allow palm to regain market share and keep stockpiles in producing countries at reasonable levels, Mistry said. The decline in soybean oil prices spurred buyers from India to China and Iran to shift from palm oil, he said.

Palm oil fell as Indonesia failed to implement its biodiesel program, Mistry said. Prices may rally if state-owned PT Pertamina announces a tender to buy the vegetable oil to run the biodiesel mandate, he said. The rallies will be seen by investors as opportunities to sell, he said.

Indonesia will impose export levies to fund biodiesel subsidies, replanting, research and development, with shippers paying $50 a ton for crude palm and $30 for processed products starting this month, the government said April 4. The country also raised its biodiesel mandate to a 15 percent blend in April from 10 percent, likely boosting palm demand by 2 million tons this year, the Indonesian Palm Oil Association estimates.

‘Market Mood’

“The market is in no mood to take Indonesian promises at face value,” Mistry said. “I would sum up the mood of the market as -- Show Me the Money.”

Production in Malaysia, which lost 920,000 tons of output in the four months through February from a year earlier, will continue to decline until June due to the low biological cycle of trees and low seasonal cycle for harvest, he said. Production in Malaysia will total 19.7 million tons this year, while Indonesia’s output was seen at 31.5 million tons, he said.

Output in the three months through March declined 12 percent to 3.78 million tons from a year earlier, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said April 10. Inventories rose 7 percent to 1.87 million tons in March from February, data show.

Mistry’s palm oil price forecast assumes Brent trading between $50 and $70 a barrel, a strong dollar and a normal U.S. soybean crop. Soybean prices may drop below $9 a bushel and may approach $8 if there’s a big U.S. harvest, he said.

“I must warn you that farmers will resist these prices and will be very reluctant sellers,” Mistry said. “So the journey downwards will be painfully slow and there will be many spot rallies.”
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 14, 2015, 11:09:24 PM
Palm futures end higher with hopes of spike in local buying

There are hopes that levies imposed on Indonesian crude palm oil could drive buyers towards Malaysia.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 19, 2015, 11:06:36 PM
M'sia, Indonesia move to impose zero duties on CPO

Selangor: Malaysia and Indonesia, the world's two largest producers of crude palm oil (CPO), are now playing the game of zero duties on CPO exports in efforts to bring down the huge build-up in palm oil stocks amid current weak prices and the narrowing of the CPO price discount to soybean. Malaysia recently announced that it would revert to zero duties on CPO exports for May, after having recently reimposed a 4.5pc export duty on CPO for April.

Malaysia's CPO export duty regime had been suspended from September 2014 to March 2015.

Indonesia, meanwhile, had started to impose zero duties on its CPO exports since March. The world is sitting on some six million tonnes of palm oil stocks, said palm oil expert M R Chandran.

As at end-March, Indonesia's CPO stocks were pegged at about 2.1 million tonnes and Malaysia at 1.87 million tonnes, while top CPO importers China and India were holding some two million tonnes of CPO stocks.

"With palm oil production set to rise in the coming months, many also fear a huge build-up in palm oil stocks in the coming months," Chandran said.

For Malaysia, he said palm oil stocks for April were slated to breach the two million-tonne mark should the harvesting of crops improve.

This could further drag down the CPO price, which has fallen by about 19pc so far this year.

Another bearish factor is the narrowing of the CPO price discount to soybean at US$58-US$59 per tonne currently compared with the average price discount of US$180 per tonne in the past 10 years.

"The narrowing of the price discount makes it more attractive for the world's top edible oil importers, China and India, to purchase soybean rather than CPO," added Chandran.

On a positive note, he said the only factor that was holding the CPO price above RM2,000 per tonne currently was the weakening of the ringgit against the US dollar. The three-month benchmark CPO futures for June contract closed RM12 higher at RM2,160 per tonne.

Meanwhile, Kenanga Research in its latest report highlighted that Malaysia's CPO export duty could be zero percent for May.

The average CPO freight-on-board prices for the last 15 days of March together with the first 10 days of April was RM2,219 per tonne, which is below the RM2,250-per-tonne price threshold to implement CPO export taxes.

Under the domestic CPO export duty structure, the CPO exports will be taxed from 4.5pc onwards when the CPO gazetted price is higher than the RM2,250-per-tonne threshold price.

According to Kenanga Research, some CPO sellers could be holding back their CPO exports until then, as the export tax (at 0pc) could become attractive next month.

Hence, the research unit is expecting exports to improve by 6pc to 1.25 million tonnes in April due to re-stocking activities and Malaysia's tax advantage.

"We think that countries with colder climates such as China and Europe should see better demand going forward due to stock replenishment after the winter months." On the other hand, the CPO price weakness will likely persist.

Kenanga Research said CPO prices could continue to trade between the RM2,100 and RM2,200-per-tonne range in the near term, following expectations of higher inventory in April, declining soybean prices and low crude oil prices.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 29, 2015, 10:50:07 PM
Report predicts good news for palm oil prices

The worst may be over for palm oil prices, said the Performance Management and Delivery Unit (Pemandu) in its Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) Annual Report 2014 released today.

It said severe droughts registered in the first half of 2014 in the world's major palm oil producing countries Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to lower palm oil production in 2015. "This will lead to a mismatch between palm oil's availability and rising consumption of palm oil in the year ahead.

"As palm oil supply dips, demand is expected to rise, underpinned by an uptick in vegetable oil demand from China as well as Malaysia's move to lift biodiesel blends from 5% to 7% at the end of last year to boost consumption and shore up prices. Pemandu said Malaysia, which set export taxes on monthly basis for crude palm oil (CPO) shipments, allowed duty-free exports of CPO towards to end of the year, helped to reduce stockpiles of palm oil, which Indonesia followed shortly after. On rubber, Pemandu said demand was expected to be steady this year and will help underpin natural rubber prices over the coming year. It said from a supply perspective, the replanting efforts undertaken by governments in Malaysia and other rubber producing nations in the region will mean limited availability of supply and cushion prices. Pemandu said this year, the Entry Point Projects (EPP) has allocated a new budget of RM96.71 million for replanting and RM110.08 million for new planting nationwide.

"The budget is sufficient for a target of about 24,000 hectares of replanting and new planting," it said. It added more replanting exercises could also be expected following the government's RM100 million rubber productivity incentive to aid rubber smallholders suffering from weak commodity prices," it said. – Bernama, April 28, 2015.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 29, 2015, 10:53:03 PM
Palm oil suffers as ringgit gets stronger

KUALA LUMPUR, April 28, 2015:

Malaysian palm oil futures slid to an eight-month low today as the ringgit continued to gain traction, stoking worries that overseas buyers may shy away from palm at a time when the tropical plant enters a higher production cycle.

The Malaysian currency rose as high as RM3.5440 against the US dollar, its strongest since Feb 9, in its third straight session of gains, making the ringgit-priced palm feedstock more expensive for foreign customers.

“Palm is under pressure because of the strong ringgit, and talk of higher production estimates,” said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

In its fifth session of losses, the benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange touched RM2,075 a tonne in early trade, its lowest since Sept 22, before settling at RM2,092 by today’s close, down 0.8%.

Total traded volume stood at 67,540 lots of 25 tonnes each, well above the usual 35,000 lots.

Technical charts showed that palm oil is expected to test a support at RM2,076 per tonne, a break below which will open the way towards a range of RM2,039-2,060, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said.

Palm’s steep drop was not mirrored by soyoil, a common food and fuel substitute, enabling the tropical oil widen its discount to the rival oil.

But the discount has to be attractive enough to be able to pull back demand from price-sensitive buyers, traders said.

“It (the discount) has to be at a level where it can attract demand. At the moment, it is not enough,” the Malaysia-based trader added.

Palm olein is currently around US$70 (RM248.80) cheaper than Argentine soyoil, from an under US$25 discount early April, but narrower than US$160 at the start of 2015.

The US July soyoil contract was down 0.1% in late Asian trade, while the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 0.1%.

Elsewhere, Australian Bureau of Meteorology said Pacific Ocean sea temperatures now exceed El Nino thresholds, while trade winds have weakened over the last few weeks. Should this pattern continue, the bureau said, an El Nino will develop.

In other markets, oil prices fell today ahead of weekly US crude inventory data that is expected to hit another high, withdrawing further from a rally that saw Brent crude futures touch a 4½ month high.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 29, 2015, 11:03:00 PM
RAM Berhad : CPO prices to remain soft amid lacklustre demand and weak crude oil prices

Published on 29 April 2015

The price of crude palm oil (CPO) came in at the lower end of RAM's price forecast of RM2,200/MT-RM2,400/MT for 1Q 2015, averaging RM2,204/MT. Notwithstanding the effects of a weak ringgit, the commodity's price is expected to remain soft, as concerns over lacklustre demand amid competition from an ample supply of substitute oils and a weak crude oil-price environment weigh on prices. The still-narrow premium of soy oil to CPO (1Q 2015: c.USD90/MT, 2014: c.USD88/MT) could also reduce the appeal of CPO, dampening growth in demand for the commodity as consumers switch to competing oils.

A pick-up in CPO production, as yields recover after disruptions caused by floods and the effects of dry-weather that had depressed CPO production in January and February 2015, may lead to a build-up in Malaysia's palm oil inventory to over 2 million MT in the near term, further pressuring prices. As at end-March 2015, palm oil stocks in Malaysia stood at 1.87 million MT, a respective 10.5% and 5.2% higher y-o-y and m-o-m.

Nevertheless, we note the potential price catalyst from the successful implementation of Indonesia's mandate to increase the biofuel content in diesel from 10% to 15%. The B15 mandate is estimated to boost CPO demand by 2 million MT in 2015. Although a higher biodiesel subsidy of Rp4,000/litre and plans to impose levies on the republic's palm oil exports to fund the B15 programme would be positive to its execution, we remain cautious of the pace of implementation, given that it is still in the preliminary stages and in view of concerns of engine incompatibility with high biodiesel content. Further, the execution of previously initiated mandates had been marred by pricing, infrastructure and logistical challenges
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 06, 2015, 11:37:39 PM
Palm oil hits 1-month high after Indonesia signs export levy

* Price touches 2,200 ringgit in early trade

* Indonesia palm export levy approved, effective 3rd week of May

* Malaysia's April palm stocks seen at 5-mth high of 2.13 mln T- Reuters poll

* Palm oil targets 2,235 ringgit -technicals

By Anuradha Raghu

KUALA LUMPUR, May 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose for a third day on Wednesday to touch their highest level in a month, following a jump in soy markets, and as investors covered short positions after Indonesia set a palm export levy to fund biodiesel subsidies.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a regulation requiring exporters to pay a levy of $50 per tonne of crude palm oil and $30 for processed palm oil product shipments, an energy ministry official said on Wednesday.

The regulation will take effect by the third week of May at the latest, the chief economic minister said. "It's a rally towards 2,200 ringgit - Indonesia has just signed the levy," said a palm trader with a local commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. "There's a technical buy up ... All this is poised to push prices further to test the 2,200 ringgit."

Palm typically tracks soyoil, a common food and fuel substitute. The U.S. July soyoil contract rose 0.9 percent in late Asian trade, while the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 1.3 percent.  "The market is flying - look at how soybean oil is rallying," said a second palm trader in Malaysia. "We're trying to move according to the Dalian which is very strong," the trader said, adding that a rally in Chinese palm olein prices also underpinned benchmark prices. The September contract for palm olein on the Dalian exchange has surged 2.5 percent to 5,162 yuan ($832.57) by 1010 GMT.

But rising supplies in Malaysia, the world's second-largest grower, may dent palm's rally. Inventories at end-April likely rose to a five-month high of 2.13 million tonnes, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as crude palm output continued to climb andoutpaced export demand.


In other markets, oil prices rose more than a dollar to 2015 highs on Wednesday as a month-long rally gained further impetus from a fall in U.S. crude stocks and conflict in the Middle East.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 14, 2015, 11:38:08 PM
El Nino May Spur Palm Oil Rally as UBS Highlights Impact

Palm oil may rally should an El Nino weather pattern spur dry conditions across Southeast Asia, hurting output, while key buyers such as China bring forward purchases to guarantee supplies.

Prices may advance to 2,500 ringgit ($694) a metric ton over the next three months, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd. analyst Ong Chee Ting said in a report on Wednesday. That’s 14 percent higher than Wednesday’s close on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives.

The return of an El Nino for the first time since 2010 was declared on Tuesday by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, which said that the event could be substantial. El Ninos influence conditions across the globe and in Asia they can bake Indonesia and Malaysia, the two largest palm oil producers. Planters’ stocks including IOI Corp. Bhd. in Malaysia rose on Wednesday.




“In the coming months, we expect palm oil export figures to pick up as end-buyers like China, with its low inventory level, may take a defensive strategy to stock up ahead, on fear of a possible supply crunch,” Ong said. While this will boost the palm oil price, the extent of any advance will depend largely on the El Nino’s intensity, Ong said.

Palm oil climbed to a five-week high in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday after the El Nino announcement by the Australian forecasters. Futures ended 1.2 percent lower at 2,198 ringgit a ton on Wednesday. They last traded above 2,500 ringgit a ton in June.

Shares Advance

IOI climbed 3.4 percent to 4.30 ringgit, while Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd. retreated 0.5 percent. Both were raised to hold from sell at Maybank. PT Astra Agro Lestari shares surged 7.7 percent in Jakarta, while Bumitama Agri Ltd. advanced 1 percent in Singapore.

Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia declined at the time of the last strong El Nino in 1997-1998. The two countries account for 86 percent of world supplies, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Oil palms need about 150 millimeters to 200 millimeters of precipitation a month, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department.

Lower rainfall and soil-moisture levels can hurt yields after a lag, with the effects of dry weather typically felt 10 to 12 months or 22 to 24 months later, Ivy Ng, an analyst at CIMB Investment Bank, said in a report.

A moderate El Nino, combined with a strong execution of a biodiesel mandate in Indonesia, could benefit prices in late 2015, Ng said in the report on Tuesday. Gains may be limited near term on seasonally high supply and reserves, she said.

“We have to remember that the impacts of El Nino tend to, perhaps particularly in palm oil, not be shown up immediately,” Wayne Gordon, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Singapore, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “ We’ve put it on the radar, we’ll take a bit of time, and then we’ll look at it on a more serious note as we get into the third quarter.”
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 23, 2015, 04:13:52 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rose 53% in first 20 days of May from 701,560 tons in same period in April, Intertek says.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 25, 2015, 10:04:30 PM
Malaysia’s May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 1,387,782 (+53.5%) Tons: Inter
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 30, 2015, 11:05:31 PM
Delay in Indonesia palm oil export levy weighing on Malaysian futures

In Malaysia, palm oil exports were up 54% on the month during the period May 1-25, a move that should have helped support futures prices more than it did thanks to continuing delays on Indonesian export levies that means Indonesian product will continue to flow into the market. Export news helped to lift prices off of their one-month low but levels should remain flat for the near term.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 02, 2015, 10:19:39 PM
VEGOILS-Palm hits 3-month high on soyoil rally, weak ringgit

 Palm touch 2,349 ringgit, highest since March 5

* Ringgit down for 7th day, hits 3.7050 per U.S. dollar

* Palm oil targets 2,385 ringgit -technicals

KUALA LUMPUR, June 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures hit a three-month high on Tuesday,

extending gains into a fourth straight session, buoyed by an overnight rally in soyoil markets and a

weak ringgit.

The U.S. July soyoil contract climbed almost 8 percent over the last two sessions, lifted

by increased biodiesel targets by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - a move that may spur

consumption of the edible oil.

Echoing the rise, the August palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives

exchange rose as much as 2.4 percent to 2,349 ringgit ($635.38) a tonne intraday, its highest since

March 5. Prices settled 0.8 percent higher at 2,312 ringgit by the day's close.

Total traded volume stood at 40,716 lots of 25 tonnes each, above the average 35,000 lots.

"The market is rising because of the strength in soybean oil, with the ringgit assisting the

rise," said Chandran Sinnasamy, head of dealing at LT International Futures in Malaysia, adding that

palm has entered a new range between 2,250-2,400 ringgit.

"At the moment everything looks supportive. Palm may fall for correction in an overbought chart,

but will be well supported between 2,280-2,300 ringgit," he said.

Palm prices, also supported by a drop in the ringgit to seven-week lows, have jumped

more than 10 percent from a trough of 2,121 ringgit reached on May 25. A weak ringgit makes palm a

cheaper option for overseas buyers.

Technical charts show palm oil is expected to break resistance at 2,346 ringgit and rise to the

next resistance at 2,385 ringgit, driven by an extended wave C, according to Reuters market analyst

Wang Tao.

The U.S. soyoil contract was at 34.32 U.S. cents a pound by 1015 GMT, down 0.6 percent, while

the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was up 1.3

percent.

In other markets, oil prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar weakened and on expectations that

OPEC producers would maintain their group production target at current levels and resist pressure

for an increase.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 07, 2015, 04:23:31 PM
Malaysia’s May Palm Oil Exports 1,553,281 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments jumped 44.7% from 1,073,482 tons
in April, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 08, 2015, 10:35:00 PM
VEGOILS-Palm retreats from 3-mth high on demand worries, 9-yr low ringgit caps losses

* Prices touch 2,362 ringgit, highest since March 5 in early trade
* Ringgit slumps to 9-year low at 3.7680 per U.S. dollar
* Malaysia plans to implement B10 biodiesel by Oct- minister


By Anuradha Raghu
KUALA LUMPUR, June 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures retreated from an over three-month high on Monday on worries of weakening demand, but losses were capped by a slump in the ringgit to a nine-year low and Malaysia's plans to lift its biodiesel mandate to 10 percent by October.
The August palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange was down 0.3 percent at 2,333 ringgit ($619.49) a tonne by Monday's close, having eased from an intraday high of 2,362 ringgit, its highest since March 5.
Total traded volume stood at 36,762 lots of 25 tonnes each, just above the usual 35,000 lots.
"Hearing of weak demand. Palm olein prices are under pressure," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. Exports of Malaysian palm products in May had surged about 45 percent from a month ago, although some market players were doubtful that the strong demand can be sustained.
The Malaysian ringgit hit 3.7680 per dollar late Monday, its lowest since January 2006, after robust U.S. jobs data bolstered expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve by the year-end.  Weakness in the Southeast Asian currency makes the ringgit-priced palm oil feedstock cheaper for overseas buyers.
Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm grower plans to raise its biodiesel mandate to 10 percent by October this year, from 7 percent currently, plantation industries and commodities minister Douglas Uggah Embas said on Monday. The B10 programme is expected to consume 1 million tonnes of crude palm oil a year, the minister said.
The minister added that the six-magnitude quake which struck the Borneo state of Sabah on Friday did not cause major damage to palm plantations or mills. Sabah is Malaysia's biggest palm-growing state, and accounted for 31 percent of the country's total crude palm oil output of 19.7 million tonnes in 2014.
The U.S. Geological survey said the quake's epicentre was about 54 km (33 miles) from the state capital of Kota Kinabalu. In competing vegetable oil markets, the U.S. July soyoil contract was down 1 percent by 1026 GMT, while the most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped 0.2 percent.
Oil prices slipped on Monday after China's fuel imports dropped sharply and as markets digested an OPEC decision to keep its production target unchanged, a move analysts said would keep the market oversupplied for the rest of the year.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 27, 2015, 11:19:50 PM
Malaysia July 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 1.15M Mt (-17.9%) : Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 10, 2015, 11:48:27 PM
Malaysia’s Aug. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 498,993 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments surged 57.4% from 316,942 tons

from July 1-10, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 10, 2015, 11:50:30 PM
MPOB Says Malaysia's Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.27m Tons in July

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s

second-largest producer, rose 5.3% to 2.27m metric tons in July from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement Aug. 10.

   * Output rose 2.9% to 1.82m tons, while exports fell 5.6% to 1.6m tons

   * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories  at 2.16m tons, production at 1.78m tons and shipments at 1.58m tons
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: U.K. on August 10, 2015, 11:54:29 PM
MPOB Says Malaysia's Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.27m Tons in July

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s

second-largest producer, rose 5.3% to 2.27m metric tons in July from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement Aug. 10.

   * Output rose 2.9% to 1.82m tons, while exports fell 5.6% to 1.6m tons

   * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories  at 2.16m tons, production at 1.78m tons and shipments at 1.58m tons

For how long palm oil can be stockpiled before it gets expired ?
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 11, 2015, 11:04:09 PM
Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Jump as Output Surges in July

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia expanded to the highest since November after production climbed in the world’s biggest supplier after Indonesia.

Stockpiles rose 5.3 percent to 2.27 million metric tons in July from a month earlier and 34 percent from a year ago, Malaysian Palm Oil Board data showed Monday. Output rose 2.9 percent to 1.82 million tons from June to a record for July and the highest since October. The median estimates for inventory and production were 2.16 million tons and 1.78 million tons respectively in a Bloomberg survey published last week.

Rising supplies may further weaken futures which slumped this month to the lowest level since September and are headed for a fourth annual loss in five years. Production in the world’s top growers will climb more than forecast to a record this year as a “lazy” El Nino event fails to curb output, sending prices to a 6 1/2-year low by the end of September, according to Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej Industries Ltd.




“Initially, we were expecting the El Nino effect but at the moment we don’t really see that,” Benny Lee, market strategist at Jupiter Securities in Kuala Lumpur, said by phone. “We still see quite good rains. Production will still remain high at least in the next two months.”

Futures closed at 2,029 ringgit ($514) a ton on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives in Kuala Lumpur on Monday. Prices reached an 11-month low of 2,006 ringgit on Aug. 6 and are down 10 percent this year.

Prices may slump next month to 1,900 ringgit, a level last seen in March 2009, Mistry said on Aug. 6, reiterating a forecast made in April. A drop to that level would put palm oil into a bear market. Stockpiles in Malaysia may hit a record 3 million tons by the end of November, he said.

Exports fell 5.6 percent to 1.6 million tons, after reaching 1.7 million tons in June, the highest level since October 2012, board data show. Malaysia exported 498,993 tons in the first 10 days of August, a 57 percent surge from the same period in July, surveyor Intertek said on Monday.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on September 01, 2015, 10:15:15 PM
Malaysia Aug. Palm Oil Exports 1,542,017 (+0.2%) Tons: SGS
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: Futurescoin on September 02, 2015, 10:59:19 AM
hi all,

hope you guys makes tonnes of money lately in futures markets. what's you view today for both markets?
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 26, 2015, 11:11:59 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 8.4% from 1,338,354 tons in Sept. 1-25, according to Societe Generale de Surveillance

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments drop 9.2% from 1,322,256 tons in Sept. 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 11, 2015, 11:28:59 PM
Malaysia's Oct. Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.83m Tons, MPOB Says

 BN 11/11 04:33 *MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.71M TONS; EST. 1.64M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL STOCKPILES 2.83M TONS; EST. 2.72M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:32 *MALAYSIA OCT. CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 2.04M TONS; EST. 1.93M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.71M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.83M TONS

 BN 11/11 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA OCT. PALM OIL OUTPUT 2.04M TONS

By Anuradha Raghu

     (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s

second-largest producer, rose 7.3% to 2.83m metric tons in Oct.

from month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.


  * Output rose 4% to 2.04m tons; exports rose 1.9% to 1.71m  tons

  * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories

    at 2.72m tons, production at 1.93m tons and shipments at 1.64m tons Link
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on November 30, 2015, 11:06:48 PM
Malaysia’s Nov. Palm Oil Exports 1,344,790 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 10.1% from 1,496,207 tons in
Oct., according to Intertek Testing Services.

Malaysia Nov. 1-30 Palm Oil Exports 1,351,478 Tons: Sgs

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 10.2% from 1,504,737 tons in
Oct. 1-31, according to Societe Generale de Surveillance.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on December 31, 2015, 05:34:45 PM
(BFW) Malaysia Dec. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,272,150 (-5.9%) Tons: SGS

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Malaysia Dec. 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,272,150 Tons: SGS
2015-12-31 08:50:10.673 GMT


     (Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 5.9% from 1,351,478 tons in
 Nov. 1-30, according to Societe Generale de Surveillance.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on January 17, 2016, 11:07:22 PM
Malaysia's Jan. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 486,846 (+4.3%) Tons: Intertek

Malaysia Jan. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports (+5.6%) 489,468 Tons, SGS Reports
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 06, 2016, 02:12:22 PM
Executive Summary
Malaysian Palm Oil  Supply & Demand Estimation FEBRUARY 2016
 
 % Change MoM
 
Production = 1.04 mil mt   -8.1%

Export = 1.06 mil mt  - 17%

Stockpile =  2.10 mil mt  -8.8%

*Official MPOB data will be released on 10th calendar day of every month, otherwise the next available business day.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 10, 2016, 10:15:03 PM
(BFW) Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.17m Tons, MPOB Says

(BFW) Malaysia Feb. Palm Oil Stockpiles at 2.17m Tons, MPOB Says

 BN 03/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.09M TONS; EST. 1.1M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL STOCKPILES 2.17M TONS; EST. 2.11M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA FEB. CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.04M TONS; EST. 1.09M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:29 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.09M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:29 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL STOCKS 2.17M TONS

 BN 03/10 04:29 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA FEB. PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.04M TONS

By Anuradha Raghu

     (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s

second-largest producer, fell 6.1% to 2.17m metric tons in Feb.

from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.


 

  * Output fell 7.7% to 1.04m tons; exports fell 15.2% to 1.09m tons

  * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 2.11m tons, production at 1.09m tons and shipments at

    1.1m tons
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: jollybee on March 10, 2016, 10:41:56 PM
From last year my CPO future call, I did not reveal my long term TP when first round of El Nino striked Sabah.    This year with another round of El Nino going to send CPO to RM3000 per tonne, which is my original TP last year.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 11, 2016, 10:36:15 PM
From last year my CPO future call, I did not reveal my long term TP when first round of El Nino striked Sabah.    This year with another round of El Nino going to send CPO to RM3000 per tonne, which is my original TP last year.

El Nino can help me to earn some fast money.  :cash: Good to me.  :clap:
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 11, 2016, 11:11:31 PM
Indonesian Palm Oil Production and Export Statistics:

                           2008   2009  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015   2016
Production
(million tons)       19.2   19.4    21.8   23.5  26.5   30.0    31.5   32.5   32.0¹
Export
(million tons)       15.1   17.1    17.1   17.6  18.2   22.4    21.7   26.4   27.0¹
Export
(in USD billion)     15.6   10.0    16.4   20.2  21.6   20.6   21.1   18.6   18.6¹
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 11, 2016, 11:13:31 PM
Crude Palm Oil Industry Indonesia: CPO Production Down, Price Up?

Fadhil Hasan, Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), expects Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) production to decline to around 32.1 million tons in 2016 from 32.5 million tons in the preceding year. This decline, which would be the first (full calendar year) drop in Indonesia's palm oil output since 1998, is caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon. El Nino causes dry weather in Southeast Asia hence curtailing palm oil fruit yields. CPO production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest CPO producer and exporter (after Indonesia), has also been affected.

On a positive note, falling crude palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia (together accounting for nearly 90 percent of the world's total CPO output) will have a positive effect on benchmark palm oil futures. CPO futures in Kuala Lumpur are trading around 2,540 ringgit per ton this week after having climbed about 5 percent in February. Top CPO industry analyst Dorab Mistry sees prices climb further by about 20 percent to 3,000 per ton later this year, although he also emphasized that CPO demand from key markets (for example India and China) remains bleak.

The economy of China remains in slowdown-mode implying palm oil demand from the world's second-largest economy remains subdued. This implies that Indonesian CPO exports to China will, most likely, remain falling. India raised import taxes on CPO by 5 percent in September 2015 in an effort to protect and boost its domestic edible oils industry. Meanwhile, France and Russia are planning to implement higher palm oil import taxes. All in all, these developments put pressure on global palm oil demand.

Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to fall by 1.5 million tons to 18.4 million tons in 2016. Mistry expects palm oil output in Indonesia to drop by 1.2 million tons to 32.3 million tons this year. The current lower CPO output cycle is expected to persist until June 2016.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 18, 2016, 12:26:07 AM
UPDATE 1-Malaysia hikes April CPO export duty after 11 months of zero tax


* Malaysia sets April crude palm oil export tax at 5 percent

* Plantations to rush to export CPO before tax kicks in-trader

* Analyst sees exports tilting in favour of refined products (Adds quotes, background)

KUALA LUMPUR, March 15 Malaysia raised its tax on crude palm oil (CPO) exports to 5 percent for April, a government circular showed on Tuesday, ending a duty-free policy held since May 2015.

The higher tax could dent exports from the world's No.2 palm oil producer after Indonesia and drag benchmark Malaysian prices of the tropical oil, which hit one-month highs this week amid output worries due to a crop-damaging El Nino weather event.

"Big plantations will be rushing to take out CPO from the country. That should put some pressure on domestic figures and supplies and take exports higher before the tax kicks in," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur.
 
After that exports are expected to come down, the trader added. "Producers will be most affected, big players who have been exporting a lot of CPO will be at a disadvantage."

A CPO export tax is, however, good news for local refiners as it will help keep more crude palm oil at home, weighing on domestic prices and improving downstream margins. There are no duties on Malaysian exports of refined palm oil products.

"This ... will change the export percentage between CPO and processed palm oil products," said Alan Lim, a plantations analyst at MIDF Research.
 
"We do expect some reduction in CPO exports but this will be compensated. If we compare this against Indonesia's $50 a tonne levy on CPO, Malaysia is still more competitive."

The reference price for Malaysia's export duty is set based on a formula taking the average of spot palm prices for a period of 30 days prior to when the tax is set.
 
The Southeast Asian nation calculated a reference price of 2,500.34 ringgit ($607.17) per tonne for April. A price above 2,250 ringgit incurs a tax, which starts from 4.5 percent and can reach a maximum 8.5 percent.

Palm oil futures are now at 2,594 ringgit, near a one-month top of 2,632 ringgit hit on Monday. Last week at an industry meet, experts said they see benchmark prices trading between 2,700-3,000 ringgit by June as dryness linked to El Nino hurts output growth.

But an ongoing slump in export demand, which is expected to worsen once the Malaysian tax kicks in, should help offset the impact of lower output, traders said.

"Exports will not look good, there has been no demand for months. Everyone is waiting for India to buy," said another trader from Kuala Lumpur. "Ramadan demand will come in April, but they will buy palm olein."

($1 = 4.1180 ringgit) (Reporting by Praveen Menon and Emily Chow; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 21, 2016, 11:34:51 PM
Malaysia’s March 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 712,954 Tons: Intertek

By Anuradha Raghu
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 19.8% from 594,944 tons during Feb. 1-20, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 22, 2016, 10:32:46 PM
Palm oil climbs to new 2-year high on lower output, stronger exports

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures hit a 23-month high in trade on Monday, driven by lowered production forecasts and improving export demand.

The palm oil contract for May delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 0.2 percent to settle at 2,685 ringgit ($662) per tonne at the close of trade on Monday after touching a high of 2,698 ringgit, its strongest level in nearly two years.

Trade volumes were 42,649 lots of 25 tonnes each in a day.

"Production is still down and exports are getting higher. The bulls are not going to leave it," said a trader from Kuala Lumpur.

"Demand has started to come in from India as there's the colour festival and Good Friday coming up."

Global palm oil production is expected to drop by 2 million to 3 million tonnes this year due to the dry weather effects of an El Nino, according to leading industry analysts. The weather event brings scorching heat across Southeast Asia, reducing fruit yields and output.

Malaysian palm oil exports rose 20-23 percent in March 1-20 compared with the corresponding period a month ago, driven by Indian demand.

Palm oil faces a resistance at 2,695 ringgit per tonne, a break above which could lead to a gain to 2,729 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals Wang Tao.

In competing vegetable oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up 0.2 percent, while the May Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract lost 0.6 percent.

Crude palm kernel oil's offer price stood at 5241.47 ringgit per tonne on Monday evening, according to assessment prices by Thomson Reuters.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 24, 2016, 11:23:26 PM
CPO Prices Could Have Limited Upside Movement

24/03/2016 (Borneo Post) - The crude palm oil (CPO) price movement could have limited upside potential.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd (AffinHwang Capital) in a report yesterday said the recovery of fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yields, a stronger ringgit and weak crude oil price could potentially capped the CPO price rise.

Besides, it outlined that export taxes and levies imposed by the Malaysian and Indonesian governments on CPO and processed palm oil as well as potential import duties should also cut into realised selling prices for plantation players.

“CPO prices are currently on the uptrend but there are a few moderating factors. FFB yields should recover when the El Niño events end,” it said in a note yesterday.

“Additionally, with plentiful global stock of soybeans, the soybean-oil-premium-to-CPO ratio is also an important determinant as low premiums tend to cap CPO prices rise due to substitutions.

“After the recent spike in CPO prices, the soybean oil premium remains low at around US$77 per metric tonne (MT) against the average of around US$105 per MT in 2015 and a high of US$386 per MT in 2012.”

It also noted that a weaker ringgit had contributed to firmer CPO prices before the on-going El Nino event became the dominant factor.

AffinHwang Capital opined that even though prospects of significantly lower production until around June 2016 are currently driving CPO prices higher, further strength in the ringgit could be a drag on future CPO price movement.

Apart from that, the research firm observed the Brent crude oil price has strengthened to around US$41 per barrel.

A significant retracement in crude oil prices, it said, will likely widen the already-large palm-oil premium.

Moreover, the research house believed any shortfall in the estimated usage of 2.0 million to 2.5 million MT of palm oil for biodiesel production in Indonesia should also weaken CPO prices.

Hence, the research firm reiterated its CPO average selling price (ASP) assumption of RM2,400 per MT for 2016 to 2017.

While CPO prices might average around RM2,600 per MT in the first half of 2016 (1H16), it expects CPO price to ease as extreme dry weather ends and production picks up in 2H16 and 2017.

Export taxes and levies as well as potential import duties should also cut into realised selling prices of planters, thereby limiting the pricing of CPO.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 25, 2016, 08:42:01 PM
Malaysia's March 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 886,749 Tons: Intertek

Shipments rose 12.6% from 787,693 tons during period Feb. 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 26, 2016, 09:11:33 PM
Palm oil records first gain in 3 sessions on stronger export data

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Friday, achieving their first gain in three sessions, on the back of cargo surveyor data showing higher exports.

The palm oil contract for June delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 1.8 percent higher at 2,723 ringgit per tonne at the close of trade.

Earlier in the session, it hit a two year high of 2,726 ringgit which was previously reached on Tuesday. It has so far gained 1.4 percent this week.

Traded volumes were 38,170 lots of 25 tonnes each, lower than the daily average of 44,600 lots.

"The market is seeing a continuation of ups after the previous days' corrections," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur.

"Seems like exports are holding up the market well." Shipments of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-25 rose 12.6 percent month-on-month, supported by higher exports to India and China, according to Intertek Testing Services (ITS).

Palm oil fell for two straight sessions through Thursday after hitting a two-year high on Tuesday on fears that El Nino would impact fresh fruit yields and lower production.

The El Nino weather phenomenon brings scorching weather across Southeast Asia, damaging crops and affecting output.

Crude palm oil output in Indonesia, the world's top palm producer, is seen declining in February due to droughts and forest fires, according to a Reuters survey.

Crude palm oil production may drop to 2.30 million tonnes in February, according to the survey's median estimate, down from 2.44 million tonnes in January, and the lowest since February 2015.

In competing vegetable oil markets, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 0.8 percent, and the May Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract lost 0.6 percent.

Crude palm kernel oil's offer price was 5,307.61 ringgit per tonne at the midday break, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on March 31, 2016, 09:52:27 PM
Malaysia March 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,167,775(+22.2%) Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 22.2% from 955,604 tonsduring Feb. 1-29, according to statement from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 11, 2016, 10:41:57 PM
Malaysia March Palm Oil Stocks 1.89m Tons; Matches Survey

 BN 04/11 04:36 *MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.33M TONS; EST. 1.24M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:35 *MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL STOCKS 1.89M TONS; MATCHES SURVEY
  BN 04/11 04:35 *MALAYSIA MARCH CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.22M TONS; EST 1.13M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:33 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL STOCKS 1.89M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:33 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.33M TONS
  BN 04/11 04:32 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA MARCH PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.22M TONS

Malaysia March Palm Oil Stocks 1.89m Tons; Matches Survey
 2016-04-11 04:41:00.516 GMT


 By Anuradha Raghu
      (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s
 second-largest producer, fell 13.1% to 1.89m metric tons in
 March. from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in
 statement.

   * Output rose 17% to 1.22m tons; exports rose 23% to 1.33m
     tons
   * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories
     at 1.89m tons, production at 1.13m tons and shipments at
     1.24m tons Link
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 11, 2016, 10:43:47 PM
Malaysia's April 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 320,990 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fall 2% from 327,551 tons in March
 1-10, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 20, 2016, 03:32:44 PM
(BFW) Malaysia April 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 724,169 Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rose 0.9% from 717,670 tons in same period last month, according to statement from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on April 25, 2016, 07:59:56 PM
Malaysia April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 882,967 Tons: SGS

      (Bloomberg) -- Shipments were little changed from 883,225
 tons in same period last month, according to statement from
 cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.

Malaysia’s April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 889,944 Tons: Intertek

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 0.4% from 886,749 tons in
March 1-25, Intertek Testing Services says.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 04, 2016, 11:17:13 PM
Malaysia April 1-30 Palm Oil Exports 1,088,052 Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments fall 6.8% from 1,167,775 tons in March, SGS says in statement.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 05, 2016, 11:24:44 PM
Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia seen falling to 14-month low

[KUALA LUMPUR] Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia probably fell to the lowest since February 2015 amid concerns El Nino weather conditions may continue to crimp a recovery in production in the world's second-largest grower.

Inventories eased 3.7 per cent to 1.82 million metric tons in April from a month earlier, dropping for a fifth straight time, according to the median of seven estimates in a Bloomberg survey of planters, traders and analysts. That would be the longest declining streak since June 2013.

Production rose 9 per cent to 1.33 million tons while exports fell 6 per cent to 1.25 million tons, the survey showed. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data by May 10.

Futures in Kuala Lumpur have retreated 6 per cent from a two-year peak in March on concern over demand and anticipation that production would recover from El Nino-induced drought. Yet while El Nino conditions are fading, the impact of the scorching weather pattern on palm oil yields may not be completely over.

"Production may be going up, but it may not be a strong pick up and will trail last year's production, depending on how the weather is for the rest of the second quarter," Ivy Ng, regional head of plantations at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd, said by phone.

Production last April was 1.69 million tons.  Stockpiles may continue to decline toward the third quarter as yields in some parts of Malaysia remain crimped by El Nino, Ms Ng said.

Global output may be smaller than previously expected and fall to 61.25 million metric tons this year, the first decline in over 20 years, industry researcher Oil World said in a May 3 report.

The lagging impact of the dry weather will continue throughout 2016 into 2017, the Hamburg-based group said.

Weaker production and stockpiles in Indonesia may also lift demand for Malaysian products, Phang Loy Fatt, a trader at Malaysian planter Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd's marketing division said in May 5 e-mail.

Indonesia's crude palm oil production fell to 2.32 million tons in March from a month earlier, while stockpiles dropped to 3.02 million tons from 3.43 million tons.

Mr Phang expects palm oil to trade between 2,600 ringgit and 2,800 ringgit over the next few weeks. Futures closed the morning session in Kuala Lumpur at 2,611 ringgit.

"It's not like Indonesia will have a bumper crop," Ms Ng said. "As long as both countries have weaker year-on-year crop, then supplies will remain tight and therefore prices will be supported."

About 86 per cent of world supply of palm oil, used in everything from chocolate to biodiesel, is grown in Indonesia and Malaysia.

Malaysia's imports fell 14 per cent to 60,000 tons in April while domestic consumption ranged between 190,000 tons and 240,000 tons, according to the survey.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 09, 2016, 09:44:01 PM
Crude Palm Oil market rises on short covering, open interest drops 7.59%

MUMBAI: Crude palm oil settled flat on profit booking after prices gained on speculation of lower supply from Malaysia, the world's biggest palm oil producer. Malaysia palm oil stockpiles for April month are expected to fall to 1.82 million tons, its lowest level since February 2015 compared to 1.89 million tons in March. Malaysia palm oil exports slipped to 1.10 million tons during Apr 1-30 compared to 1.17 million tons for the same period a month ago, Dow Jones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor.

Indonesia's exports of palm oil and palm kernel oil in March fell 24% to 1.74 million tons from the previous month, the Indonesian Palm Oil association (GAPKI) said. Indonesia kept export tax for crude palm oil at $3 per tons in May, the first time the country has set an export tax on the commodity since October, 2014. Malaysia’s April 1-20, 2016 CPO production seen up by 11.8% on month according to estimates from Malaysian Palm Oil Association.

India’s palm oil imports rose by 5.34 per cent to 6,42,562 tonnes during March 2016 compared to the previous month on account of sluggish global prices, industry body Solvent Extractors Association said. India purchased 6,09,939 tonnes of palm oil in February this year. Palm oils make up for 65 per cent of the country’s total vegetable oil imports. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.59% to settled at 4724, now CPO is getting support at 549 and below same could see a test of 545.5 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 554.5, a move above could see prices testing 556.5.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 14, 2016, 09:34:10 PM
Malaysian palm oil price falls

KUALA LUMPUR: Asian vegetable oil markets fell on Friday, with futures in China and Malaysia declining by 2-4 percent, hit by the effects of a sell-off on China's commodities market.
 
    Malaysian palm oil futures tracked refined, bleached and deodorised (RBD) palm olein on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, falling the most in five months on Friday.

  The most actively traded September contract for palm olein and the September soybean oil contract, both on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, fell 4 percent in Friday's late trade.

    "It's all influenced by massive speculation -- we see high runs and sharp drops," observed a palm oil futures trader in Kuala Lumpur.

 
 

 
 
 

    "What happened earlier with China's stock market is now shifting to commodities."   

    The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 2.3 percent lower at 2,587 ringgit ($642) a tonne at the close of trade. Traded lots stood at 56,153 lots of 25 tonnes each, versus a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

    While this is the market's sharpest drop since it fell 3 percent on Dec. 15, palm still gained 0.8 percent this week for a second consecutive weekly gain.

    "The market slid on Dalian's RBD (refined, bleached and deodorised) palm olein. Most of the commodity prices are down sharply in China, so our market tagged along with that," another Kuala Lumpur-based trader said.

    Crude palm oil futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India for May were also dragged down, losing 1 percent.

    China's Dalian Commodity Exchange said on Thursday that it will restore full transaction fees on soybean meal, corn starch, palm oil and soybean oil futures positions that are opened and closed on the same day, among other measures to curb speculative trading behind strong rallies last month.
 

    The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood at 4,844.64 ringgit a tonne <PKO-MYSTH-M1> in the evening, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.- Reuters
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: eye-hub on May 15, 2016, 10:15:34 AM
Malaysian palm oil price sees sharpest drop in a week

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil futures eased on Thursday evening to see its sharpest drop in a week as it tracked a weaker Dalian palm olein oil and on a slightly stronger ringgit, which led to a downtrend in benchmark prices.

    The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 1.2 percent lower at 2,646 ringgit ($659) per tonne at the close of trade, marking palm's second decline out of four sessions this week. Traded volumes were 52,993 lots of 25 tonnes each on Thursday evening, higher than a 2015 daily average of 44,600.

    "Dalian RBD (refined, bleached and deodorised) palm oil was down," said a trader based in Kuala Lumpur, which dragged down benchmark palm oil prices.

    The most actively traded September contract for palm olein on the Dalian Commodity exchange declined 2.9 percent on Thursday.

    The market also declined on a stronger ringgit, the currency palm oil is traded in. The ringgit strengthened 0.4 percent to hit 4.0170 per dollar around Thursday evening, making palm oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

    Palm however is up 0.6 percent on a weekly basis, on track for a second straight week of gains.

    "Generally this month should be strong for palm oil. As we move into the Muslim holiday, exports should improve," said the trader.

    The holy month of Ramadan, which is a period of fasting and feasting for Muslims, begins in early June. The month before Ramadan starts usually sees a higher demand for palm oil for cooking.

    Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first ten days of May rose between 21 percent and 32 percent from the corresponding period a month ago, helped by larger exports to Europe and India. 

    In competing vegetable oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1.5 percent, while the Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for July rose 0.1 percent.

    The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood around 4,894 ringgit per tonne <PKO-MYSTH-M1> in the evening, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters. - Reuters
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: eye-hub on May 15, 2016, 10:17:03 AM
Palm oil falls the most in five months, tracking lower Chinese oils

KUALA LUMPUR (May 13): Malaysian palm oil futures fell the most in five months on Friday morning, tracking a sharp drop in rival vegetable oils on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange.

The palm oil contract for July delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was 2.2% lower at 2,589 ringgit (US$642) per tonne at the midday break. There were 27,604 lots of 25 tonnes each traded by the break.

While this is the market's sharpest drop since it fell 3% on Dec 15, palm is still on track to gain 0.8% this week.

"The market slid on Dalian's RBD (refined, bleached and deodorised) palm olein. Most of the commodity prices are down sharply in China, so our market tagged along with that," said a trader from Kuala Lumpur.

"However, we see the ringgit weakening at 4.03 per dollar, so palm might recover in the afternoon due to that."

A weaker Malaysian ringgit — the currency palm oil is traded in — makes the vegetable oil cheaper for foreign currency holders and can spur purchases. The ringgit fell 0.3% against the dollar on Friday morning.

Another trader added that palm oil is likely to see some weekend covering, after the Dalian Commodity Exchange closes.

Malaysian palm oil futures have tracked the decline in China's rival vegetable oils.

China's Dalian Commodity Exchange said on Thursday that it will restore full transaction fees on soybean meal, corn starch, palm oil, and soybean oil futures positions that are opened and closed on the same day, among other measures to curb speculative trading behind strong rallies last month.

The most actively-traded September contract for palm olein on the Dalian Commodity exchange declined 4% on Friday morning, while the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also fell 4%.

The Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for July saw a 1.1% decline.

The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood around 4,844.64 ringgit per tonne at noon, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0500 GMT:

Contract   Month   Last   Change   Low   High   Volume
MY PALM OIL   MAY6   2635   -40.00   2635   2650   29
MY PALM OIL   JUN6   2604   -56.00   2589   2610   579
MY PALM OIL   JUL6   2589   -59.00   2578   2600   12853
CHINA PALM OLEIN   SEP6   5214   -216.00   5214   5392   1069680
CHINA SOYOIL   SEP6   6044   -250.00   6044   6260   1036378
CBOT SOY OIL   JUL6   32.22   -5.40   32.18   32.67   5012
INDIA PALM OIL   MAY6   541.70   -5.40   540.60   544.6   427
INDIA SOYOIL   MAY6   636.7   -5.70   636.1   640   540
NYMEX CRUDE   JUN6   46.37   -0.33   46.06   46.47   22632
 Palm oil prices in Malaysian ringgit per tonne
 CBOT soy oil in U.S. cents per pound
 Dalian soy oil and RBD palm olein in Chinese yuan per tonne
 India soy oil in Indian rupee per 10 kg
 Crude in U.S. dollars per barrel
 
(US$1 = 4.0300 ringgit)
(US$1 = 66.7665 Indian rupees)
(US$1 = 6.5225 Chinese yuan)

 
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 16, 2016, 10:57:20 PM
(BFW) Malaysia May 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 574,548 Tons: Sgs
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 14.9% from 499,918 tons in
 April 1-15, according to Societe General de Surveillance.

MALAYSIA'S MAY 1-15 PALM OIL EXPORTS 563,172 TONS: INTERTEK
(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rose 16.3% from 484,271 tons from April 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 18, 2016, 11:20:32 PM
Palm oil falls on higher output, technical selling

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian benchmark palm oil futures reversed gains to hit a two-week low on Wednesday, as speculation over higher output and technical selling dragged the market lower.

The new palm oil contract for August delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.4 percent to 2,564 ringgit ($636) per tonne at the midday break. It earlier dipped to 2,561 ringgit, its lowest since May 4.

Traded volumes stood at 23,797 lots of 25 tonnes each at noon.

"We're seeing a technical sell off, which only happens once the 2,600 ringgit range is broken and profit taking comes in," said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.

"There could be speculation of better output on the back of massive rains in recent weeks, but rain is subjective to location."

Improving output would weigh down on palm's benchmark prices, which gained nearly 10 percent in the first quarter of the year on declining production from a crop-damaging El Nino.

The El Nino weather event causes scorching heat across Southeast Asia, lowering yields and impacting palm oil production in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

Gains in palm benchmark prices, which have risen 4.6 percent so far this year, could also be capped by slower demand growth in top consumers China and India.

Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first half of May grew 14-16 percent from a month ago, a slower growth rate versus the 22-32 percent export rise seen in the first ten days of May.

In competing vegetable oils, the September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.5 percent, while the Chicago Board of Trade soyoil contract for August was down 0.4 percent.

The offer price for crude palm kernel oil stood at 4,877.71 ringgit a tonne at noon, according to price assessments by Thomson Reuters.


Copyright Reuters, 2016
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 19, 2016, 11:47:40 PM
Palm analyst Mistry cuts palm forecast to 2,600-2,800 rgt/T

* Output recovery, weaker demand undercuts prices -Mistry

* High inventories to pull prices to 2,200-2,300 rgt/T by Q4-Fry

* Palm price to continue to rise to above 2,800 rgt/T-Mielke

By Emily Chow

May 19 (Reuters) - Palm oil will trade at 2,600 to 2,800ringgit per tonne from now until July, said industry analystDorab Mistry on Thursday, lower than forecast earlier as outputrecovers faster than expected and demand is softer.

From July onwards, prices could then slip to 2,500 ringgit($613.50), but are not expected to weaken further, he said.





Mistry had previously said palm prices would reach 3,000ringgit a tonne this year on crop damage from an El Nino weatherpattern. But output is now forecast to be better than expected,making it harder for prices to hit that mark.

Benchmark futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange have lost about 8 percent since touching values near2,800 ringgit a tonne in March and April, the highest levelsseen in two years. On Thursday, palm futures fell 1.6 percent toreach 2,519 ringgit by the close of trade.

"From July, as we witness a strong recovery in productionand as stocks build up, we may see crude palm oil (CPO) pricesslip to 2,500 ringgit, but I do not expect further weakness,"said Mistry at the Palm Oil Trade Fair and Seminar in India,according to a copy of his speech as seen by Reuters.

El Nino weather events typically bring dry weather toSoutheast Asia, lowering palm output in top producers Indonesiaand Malaysia.

Mistry sees global output declining from the previous yearby 2.5 million tonnes - 1.5 million tonnes in Malaysia and 1million in Indonesia - in the oil year through September, downfrom a previous estimate of a 3 million-tonne drop.


Another analyst said on Monday in Turkey at a similar palmoil seminar and trade fair that high inventories in the fourthquarter would pull palm prices down to 2,200-2,300 ringgit.

"By the final quarter of the year, the combined CPO outputof Malaysia and Indonesia will be back in positive growth," saidJames Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMCInternational, in remarks that were posted online.

Fry had forecast in March for palm oil prices to reach2,750-2,900 ringgit by June.

Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World,however, said at the event in Turkey - also in remarks postedonline - that palm oil prices would continue to rise, but therecovery would depend on output, end-stocks, demand andbiodiesel developments.

"Palm oil futures are likely to recover to 2,800 ringgit andabove," he said without stating when, pegging global palm outputto fall 1.4 million tonnes in the oil year through September.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 29, 2016, 09:37:53 PM
(BFW) Malaysia's May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 981,630 (+11.2%) Tons: SGS

(BFW) Malaysia's May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 965,253 Tons: Intertek
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on May 31, 2016, 09:41:33 PM
(BFW) Malaysia May Palm Oil Exports 1,251,695 Tons: SGS

(Bloomberg) -- Shipments rose 15% from 1,088,052 tons in April, according to statement from cargo surveyor SocieteGenerale de Surveillance.

(BFW) Malaysia?s May Palm Oil Exports 1,233,135 Tons: Intertek

 (Bloomberg) -- Shipments rise 11.2% from 1,108,619 tons in April, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 02, 2016, 10:42:22 PM
Palm oil stocks may fall to lowest level since Feb 2011

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s palm oil inventories could have fallen 12% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 1.59 million tonnes in May 2016, its lowest level since February 2011, according to CIMB Research.

 “Findings from a survey of 25 Malaysian planters by the CIMB Futures team revealed that Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) output grew by 1.1% m-o-m to 1.3 million tonnes in May 16. Palm oil exports grew by approximately 13% m-o-m, based on export statistics released by SGS and ITS.

“Overall, we estimate that Malaysian palm oil inventories could have fallen 12% m-o-m to 1.59 million tonnes as at end-May 16, its lowest level since February 2011,” CIMB said.

 The official figures will be released on June 10.

CIMB said the 1% m-o-m rise in output was below the historical average m-o-m rise in May’s palm oil output of 7% over the past five years.

 It added that on a year-on-year basis, CPO output fell 27% as the El Nino continued to negatively impact fresh fruit bunch yields. Its survey revealed that Sabah estates posted the biggest rise in output of around 10% m-o-m, but this was offset by weaker output from the Peninsular Malaysia (-4.5% m-o-m) and Sarawak (-1.6% m-o-m) estates.

“We estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports increased by circa 13% m-o-m in May 2016, based on estimates from cargo surveyor SGS (15% mom) and ITS (11.2% mom). The strong May exports could also have been partly due to buying ahead of the Eid-al-Fitr festival,” CIMB said.

 It expects La Nina to have a positive short-term impact on CPO price as harvesting was affected in flood-prone estates. In the medium term, rainfall may boost palm oil yields, leading to higher output and lower prices.

 However, it said that downside risk to CPO price could be capped by a smaller soybean crop as La Nina tends to bring lower rainfall to parts of key soybean-producing areas. Bar the 1998/01 La Nina events, CPO prices tend to react positively to La Nina due to lagged effects of El Nino, that precede most La Nina events.

“CPO prices rose 21% year-on-year to an average RM2,617 per tonne in May 2016, reflecting the weaker palm oil supply.

“We expect CPO prices to trade in the RM2,500-2,900 per tonne range in June, as palm oil supplies are expected to get tighter due to weaker-than-expected supply. We maintain a ‘neutral’ rating on the sector,” CIMB said.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 10, 2016, 01:46:17 PM
(BFW) Malaysia May Palm Oil Stockpiles 1.65m Tons; Est. 1.66m Tons   
                                                                                   
BN 06/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA MAY PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.28M TONS; EST. 1.32M TONS
BN 06/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA MAY PALM OIL STOCKPILES 1.65M TONS; EST. 1.66M TONS
BN 06/10 04:31 *MALAYSIA MAY CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.36M TONS; EST. 1.35M TONS

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, fell 8.8% to 1.65m metric tons in May from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.
* Output rose 4.9% to 1.36m tons
* Exports rose 9.3% to 1.28m tons
* NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories at 1.66m tons, production at 1.35m tons and shipments at 1.32m tons Link
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 10, 2016, 11:45:24 PM
BN 06/10 02:58 *MALAYSIA'S JUNE 1-10 PALM OIL EXPORTS 368,316 TONS: INTERTEK

 (Bloomberg) -- Shipments drop 5.9% from 391,222 tons in May 1-10, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 27, 2016, 12:05:28 AM
Malaysia palm prices to remain around MR2,400/mt in Q4 on higher output: Rabobank

Singapore (Platts)--22 Jun 2016 233 am EDT/633 GMT





Palm oil prices should remain weak, averaging around MR2,400/mt ($594.71/mt), during the fourth quarter of 2016, due to recovering Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production and weaker demand, Rabobank said in its June Agri Commodities Monthly update released late Tuesday.

Palm futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange fell below the MR2,500/mt mark on June 15, from MR2,600/mt levels seen during late May-early June, the report said.

Malaysia's May palm oil production was at 1.36 million mt, down 4.5% from April and 25% year on year, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board data.

The year-on-year decline in May was largest recorded in 2016, the Rabobank report said, and forecast year-on-year declines would reduce going forward, with output in June expected to recover to 1.55 million mt, or up 15% month on month.

Indonesian palm oil output in May is expected at 2.2 million mt, it added.

Meanwhile, CPO prices were capped on expectations of lower vegoil demand and a faltering soybean price rally, the report added.

Shipping surveyors SGS data revealed that 555,000 mt of palm oil was exported from Malaysia during first-half June, down 3.4% month on month, said the report.

Indonesian exports were estimated to have fallen 5% on the month to 1.98 million mt in May.

Major palm oil destination markets like India and Bangladesh saw 62% and 38% year-on-year declines in palm oil imports, respectively, in May, the report said.

Domestic stocks of vegoils in India rose 10% year on year to 8.5 million mt in May.

Chinese vegoil imports declined to 200,000 mt in May, down 50% month on month, while port stocks at end May were up 30% year on year at 600,000 mt, according to the report. Since US NOPA soy oil stocks were also higher, CPO prices were forecast to remain around MR2,400/mt levels.

Malaysian palm oil inventory was at 1.65 million mt in May, the lowest level seen for May since 2010, the report said.

Malaysian palm oil stocks should rebound from June on weaker demand as the fasting month of Ramadan would end by July, and also due to higher seasonal production, the report added.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on June 28, 2016, 10:34:46 AM
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

  BN 06/27 03:57 *MALAYSIA'S JUNE 1-25 PALM OIL EXPORTS 872,738 TONS: INTERTEK


 +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 Malaysia’s June 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 872,738 Tons: Intertek
 2016-06-27 04:00:31.526 GMT


 By Anuradha Raghu
      (Bloomberg) -- Shipments fell 9.6% from 965,253 tons during
 May 1-25, according to Intertek Testing Services.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2016, 11:35:19 PM
(BFW) Malaysia June Palm Oil Stockpiles 1.78m Tons; Est. 1.72m Tons

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

  BN 07/12 04:33 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.13M TONS; EST. 1.21M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:32 *MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKPILES 1.78M TONS; EST. 1.72M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:31 *MALAYSIA JUNE CRUDE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.53M TONS; EST. 1.49M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL EXPORTS 1.13M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL STOCKS 1.78M TONS
  BN 07/12 04:30 *MPOB SAYS MALAYSIA JUNE PALM OIL OUTPUT 1.53M TONS


 +------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

 By Anuradha Raghu
      (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, world’s second-largest producer, rose 7.7% to 1.78m metric tons in June
 from mo. earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement.

   * Output rose 12.3% to 1.53m tons; exports fell 11.7% to 1.13m
     tons
   * NOTE: Est. according to Bloomberg survey showed inventories
     at 1.72m tons, production at 1.49m tons and shipments at
     1.21m tons  Link
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2016, 11:52:44 PM
MCX Crude Palm Oil may trade between US489.9-498.5 levels

Crude palm Oil on MCX settled down by -0.14% at 493.2 despite of demand following improved Malaysian palm oil July 1-10 export data. Prices of palm oil were up taking cues from international market on higher demand Malaysia palm oil exports during July 1-10 climbed 5.2% compared to a month earlier on higher demand from European Union and Middle East, data showed.

Malaysia palm oil exports jumped to 387,589 tons during July 1-10 compared to 368,316 tons for the same period a month ago, Dow Jones reported citing data from Intertek, a private surveyor. Moreover, Indonesia, the world's biggest oil producer, will lower the export tax for CPO to zero in July, down from $3 per ton in June, a Trade Ministry official said. The tax will be scrapped for next month as the government expects its reference price for CPO to fall for the period of July, the official said.

Indonesia's exports of palm oil and palm kernel oil in May fell 16 percent from April to 1.76 million tons, the GAPKI said in a statement. The drop in exports is a result of "the implementation of mandatory biodiesel (blend) and increasing domestic demand especially in food industry. Palm oil imports fell by 28 per cent to 657,454 tonnes in May, in view of higher stock availability and sluggish summer demand, industry body Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) said.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.28% to settled at 4328 while prices down -0.7 rupee, now CPO is getting support at 491.5 and below same could see a test of 489.9 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 495.8, a move above could see prices testing 498.5.

Trading Ideas:
--CPO trading range for the day is 489.9-498.5.
--Crude palm oil ended with nominal losses despite of demand following improved Malaysian palm oil July 1-10 export data.
--Malaysia palm oil exports during July 1-10 climbed 5.2% compared to a month earlier on higher demand from European Union and Middle East.
--Indonesia will lower the export tax for CPO to zero in July, down from $3 per ton in June, a Trade Ministry official said.
--Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 3.20 rupees and settled at 502.30 rupees.

Courtesy: Kedia Commodities
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2016, 11:57:10 PM
Malaysia palm oil stocks see first gain in 7 months as demand tumbles

* Exports see bigger-than-expected drop, hit four-month low

* Rising stocks may weigh on prices trading near 9-month low

* The trend of higher production is expected to continue

(Adds graphic link, updates prices)

KUALA LUMPUR, July 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil inventories rose for the first time in seven months in June, as overseas sales fell more than expected and production climbed,in what is a bearish sign for prices of the vegetable oil that are already mired near nine-month lows.

Palm oil stocks in the world's No.2 producer after Indonesia stood at 1.78 million tonnes at end-June, industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said on Tuesday, up 7.7 percent from May when inventories hit a more than five-year low as buyers stocked up ahead of Ramadan. (MYPOMS-TPO) June output rose 12.3 percent to 1.53 million tonnes from May, while exports fell 11.7 percent to a four-month low of 1.13 million tonnes, MPOB data showed. (MYPOMP-CPOTT) (MYPOME-PO)

A Reuters survey had forecast a 7.4 percent increase in June stockpiles, the first gain after November, a drop of 6.4 percent in exports and a rise of 11 percent in output. "Export situation is really worrisome," said one Kuala Lumpur based trader with an international trading company. "Production is climbing at a faster rate. Normally, June output is either lower than May or it is at par but more than 12 percent increase is big."

Higher output and waning export demand after Ramadan have already hurt benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures, which dropped to a low of 2,198 ringgit ($552.26) per tonne on Tuesday - the weakest since late September. The trend of higher production is expected to continue,traders said.

"June production is an indication that the output from July onwards will be higher," a second Kuala Lumpur trader said. "We are getting good rains which could be due to La Nina weather." While dryness across Southeast Asia related to an El Nino weather event that recently ended is expected to curb global palm output this year, an emergence of La Nina and resultant rains in the region could help improve fresh fruit yields.Weather forecasters globally are predicting a 50-75 percent chance of La Nina developing in the second half of 2016.Malaysian palm oil exports for July 1-10 rose 5.2 percent to 387,589 tonnes from a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services has said. The market is now waiting for the next update from cargo surveyors, due on July 15, for trading cues.

The following is a breakdown of Malaysian Palm Oil Boardmfigures and Reuters estimates for June:

(volumes in tonnes)

June 2016 June 2016 poll June 2015 May 2016

Output 1,532,613 1,514,162 1,763,667 1,364,575

Stocks 1,776,264 1,767,500 2,141,910 1,649,884

Exports 1,132,282 1,200,000 1,697,169 1,282,415

Imports 19,636 35,000 103,496 20,024

($1 = 3.9800 ringgit)

(Reporting by A. Ananthalakshmi and Naveen Thukral; Editing by Himani Sarkar)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 08, 2016, 11:45:37 PM
Palm oil stockpile in Malaysia seen rising in July

KUALA LUMPUR: Palm oil inventories in Malaysia likely rose for a second month in July, in the first back-to-back gain since November, as production continued to recover from stresses caused by El Nino weather.
 
 Inventoriesrose 2.2 percent to 1.82 million metric tons in July from June, according to the median of eight estimates in a Bloomberg survey of planters, traders and analysts. Productionof crude palm oil likely rose 3.9 percent to 1.59 million tons, its fifth straight monthly rise. Exports likely surged 15 percent to 1.3 million tons, which would be the biggest climb in four months. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release official data by August 10.

  Anticipation of higher export demand and prospects for La Nina weather in coming months have boosted palm oil futures 5.5 percent so far this week, putting them on track for the best week since February. While production in the world's second- largest grower is recovering from El Nino-induced dry weather, board data show first half crude palm oil output was 16 percent lower than last year. For July, production of 1.59 million tons would still be the lowest for the month since 2010.

  “All eyes will be on August and September production,” said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari Sdn.


 
 

 
 
 
“We are not anticipating any double digit increase in both months.”

 Malaysia's production this year may drop to between 18.2 million and 18.5 million tons from 20 million tons in 2015, he said, adding that he anticipates long-term support for prices as the market takes that into account.

  Hamburg-based Oil World lowered its forecast for global production on Tuesday, saying it expects a 3.5 percent decline this year to 60.4 million metric tons. That's 200,000 tons lower than its June estimate.

 The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says there's a 50 percent chance of La Nina forming this year, which may trigger heavy rains and floods that affects fruit quality and complicate harvesting.

  “Production should continue its upswing in line with seasonal trends, but we expect it to stay below the five-year historical average,” said Voon Yee Ping, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd.

  Demand Rebound

  While a second monthly gain in Malaysian palm oil reserves may weigh on futures, demand for the oil used in everything from cooking to cosmetics is set to recover, according to Ivy Ng, regional head of plantations at CIMB Investment Bank Bhd.

  “The higher demand for palm oil suggests that palm oil stock levels at the consuming countries are currently low and that palm oil prices have regained competitiveness against other edible oils,” Ng wrote in an Aug. 1 note.

 Prices in August may trade between 2,300 ringgit and 2,600 ringgit a ton, she said.

  Exports from Malaysia jumped 15 percent in July, according to data from cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance.

 Shipments to China, the world's largest palm consumer after India, surged 68 percent to 225,856 metric tons in the month compared to June.

  The contract for October delivery on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives was 1.2 percent higher at 2,444 ringgit by Thursday's close.

 Palm oil has trimmed an annual loss of as much as 12 percent to a 1.7 percent decline this year, and have climbed 12 percent from its bear market close of 2,188 ringgit on July 12.

  Malaysian imports were probably 20,000 tons in July from 19,636 tons in June, while estimates for domestic consumption ranged between 240,000 tons and 290,000 tons, according to the survey. - Bloomberg
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 11, 2016, 11:30:38 PM
CIMB: AGRIBUSINESS UPDATE - Stronger Chinese demand boost exports


* Malaysian palm oil stocks fell 0.2% mom to 1.77m tonnes at end-Jul 2016.
 * Stockpile was 2-3% below our and consensus estimates, positive for CPO prices.
 * We cut 2016 palm oil supply estimate for Malaysia by 6% to 17.9m tonnes.
 * We project that palm oil stocks will rise 1% mom to 1.79m tonnes at end-Aug 2016.
 * Maintain Neutral, with AALI, FR and GENP as our top picks.
 

Palm oil stocks fell 0.2% mom at end-Jul
Palm oil stocks in Malaysia fell 0.2% mom to 1.77m tonnes at end-Jul thanks to higher exports. The stock level was 2% below our projection of 1.81m tonnes due to lower imports and higher domestic consumption. The stockpile was also 3% below Bloomberg and Reuters poll estimates of 1.82m tonnes and 1.83m tonnes, respectively. On a yoy basis, end-Jul stocks fell 22% as weaker output trumped exports.

El Nino reduced palm oil supply by 1.7m tonnes in 7M16
We are slightly positive on this news as the stockpile was below our and consensus estimates. Slower mom rise in CPO production in Jul was due to lower productivity as estates workers were away for Eid-al-Fitr celebration. We expect palm oil supply to rise mom from Aug onwards, in line with peak production season, but this would not cover shortfall of 1.685m tonnes in 7M16 due to El Nino. We cut Malaysia palm oil supply estimate by 6% to 17.9m tonnes and now expect CPO supply to fall 10% yoy in 2016.

Stronger demand from China to boost sentiment
Palm oil exports jumped 21% mom in Jul to 1.384m tonnes or the highest monthly exports for the year. This was due to stronger demand from China and the US. Palm oil exports fell 8% to 8.7m tonnes in 7M16. All major importing countries, with the exception of Pakistan, imported less palm oil from Malaysia in 7M16.

Project marginal rise in stocks at end-Aug
Our initial tentative estimates suggest that palm oil stocks will rise by 1% mom in Aug 2016 to 1.79m tonnes. We project that Aug production will increase by 8% mom and exports of palm oil will rise 5% mom. In the first 10 days of Aug, Malaysian palm oil exports rose 18% against the same period in the previous month.

Expect better qoq results in 2Q16. Maintain Neutral
We expect planters to report flattish to lower yoy earnings in 2Q16. However, we project that 2Q16 earnings will be much better than 1Q16 due to the 8% qoq rise in selling prices and 20% increase in output. We expect CPO prices to trade in the price range of RM2,200-2,600 per tonne in Aug and average RM2,450 per tonne in 2016 and RM2,600 in 2017. We maintain our Neutral sector rating and AALI, GENP and FR as our top picks.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 09, 2017, 09:28:15 PM
VEGOILS-Palm oil snaps winning streak, tracking weaker soyoil


* Palm sees first drop in five sessions

* Palm hits intraday high of 2,575 rgt then retreats

* Market draws profit taking - Trader

(Updates with closing prices)

By Emily Chow

KUALA LUMPUR, July 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Friday, ending a four-day winning streak, as soyoil's weak performance on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) weighed.

The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 0.3 percent at 2,554 ringgit ($594) a tonne. It had earlier risen to 2,575 ringgit, its highest since May 26.

Palm oil's gains over the previous four days were prompted by forecasts of falling production ahead of industry regulator data release on July 10. The market gained 3.9 percent on the week.

A Reuters poll had forecast production to fall to 1.62 million tonnes in June, down 2.1 percent from the previous month.

However, end stocks are seen up 0.2 percent to 1.56 million tonnes, while exports are likely to dive 8.2 percent to 1.38 million tonnes on-month.

Traded volumes totalled 39,201 lots of 25 tonnes each on Friday.

"We are seeing some profit taking after the week-long rally on the back of softening soyoil and Dalian," said a futures trader from Kuala Lumpur, referring to CBOT soyoil and related edible oils on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange.

Palm oil prices are affected by movements in related edible oils, as they compete for a share in the global edible oils market.

Soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade slipped 0.8 percent, while September soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange edged up 0.1 percent.

In other related oils, the September palm olein contract rose 0.3 percent.

Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 1100 GMT Contract Month Last Change Low High Volume
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2018, 09:48:52 AM
MPOB S&D Jun vs May:
Prodn 1.33m vs 1.53m (-12.6%)
Impt 86k vs 32k
Expt 1.13m vs 1.29m (-12.6%)
LDsp 271k vs 277k
Stks 2.19m vs 2.17m (+0.8%)

Reuters Poll:
Prodn 1.36m (-11.1%)
Impt 36k
Expt 1.19m (-7.8%)
LDsp 228k
Stks 2.15m (-1.2%)

Bloomberg Poll:
Prodn 1.37m (-11.0%)
Impt 30k
Expt 1.18m (-8.5%)
LDsp 230k-270k
Stks 2.17m (unch)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2018, 09:52:35 AM
Indonesia’s May Palm Oil Stockpiles Rise to 4.76 Million Tons

(Bloomberg) -- Inventories climb from 3.98 million metric tons in April, Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki, says in emailed statement on Wednesday.
Production at 4.24 million tons versus 3.72 million tons in previous month
Exports, including biodiesel and oleochemical, fall to 2.33 million tons from 2.39 million tons in April
Jan.- May exports at 12,569 million tons
To contact the reporter on this story: Yoga Rusmana in Jakarta
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2018, 09:53:39 AM
CIMB Sees Malaysia Palm Oil Inventories Rising 11% M/m in July
07/11/2018 11:19:14
By Anuradha Raghu
(Bloomberg) -- Stockpiles est. +11% m/m to ~2.42m tons at end-July, CIMB regional head of agribusiness Ivy Ng says in July 10 report.
*July production seen +9% m/m to 1.45m tons as harvesting activity picks up pace following the return of workers from festive celebrations
*NOTE: Malaysia Palm Oil Reserves Advance in June on Weaker Exports
*Higher-than-expected stockpiles in June were due to weaker-than-expected exports, which is negative for prices in the short-term given the high inventories in Malaysia and the looming high palm production season
*Lower demand may be due to de-stocking, possible shifting of imports from Malaysia to Indonesia
*Exports seen -5% m/m to 1.07m tons due to weak demand in key importers
*Weak demand in July 1-10 may be partly due to softer currencies of India, China
*Spot CPO prices expected to trade 2,200-2,400 ringgit/ton range in July
*Key bearish factors are weak demand, “stubbornly high” inventories in Malaysia and potentially higher supply in 2H
*Bullish factors are higher crude oil prices, China’s tariffs on U.S. soy, rising biodiesel mandates in Indonesia
*Development of El Nino conditions should be watched
*CIMB maintains neutral rating on the sector
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2018, 09:54:24 AM
MALAYSIA LOWERS AUGUST CRUDE PALM OIL EXPORT TAX TO 4.5 PCT, VS 5.0 PCT IN JULY -GOVT CIRCULAR - Reuters News
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2018, 09:56:06 AM
Malaysia's Jul 1-10 palm oil exports fell 23.1 pct -SGS - Reuters News
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2018, 09:57:37 AM
SPPOMA: 1-10th July18
Overall Summary :
Yield: +12.19%
OER : -0.68%
Production: +8.61%
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 12, 2018, 12:27:21 PM
Weaker CPO price performance likely in 2H18

Plantation sector

 Maintain neutral:
Malaysian palm oil inventories were unexpectedly up for the first time in six months as a sharp decline in exports outpaced a decline in production. During the first half (1H), palm oil inventories rose 0.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) while production and exports gained 2.3% and 5.1%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the crude palm oil (CPO) price had performed poorly year to date (YTD), down 17.5% y-o-y to RM2,415/tonne while the spot price recently fell to a two-year low of RM2,247/tonne. We continue to maintain a “neutral” outlook with a full-year CPO price forecast of RM2,350/tonne.

In contrast to the market expectation of stagnant growth, inventories climbed 0.8% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 2.18 million tonnes (a three-month high) as palm oil exports outpaced production. Stock-to-usage ratio rose in the second straight month, up from 11.5% to 13%. Going forward, we expect to see higher inventories in 2H of 2018 (2H18) on the back of higher palm oil production.

CPO exports experienced a sharp decline, down 12.6% m-o-m to 1.12 million tonnes, the lowest level since February 2017. The poor export data was mainly due to weaker demand from China (-19.5%), the European Union (-0.7%) and Pakistan (-23.3%), despite strong demand from India (+112.1%) and the US (+0.6%).

June CPO production saw a bigger decline, down 12.6% m-o-m to 1.33 million tonnes. Production in Peninsular Malaysia fell 13.6% m-o-m while Sabah and Sarawak dipped 11.5% m-o-m. The weak production was likely due to the low harvesting activities during the long holiday break.

For the first 10 days of July 2018, Malaysia’s CPO exports registered another decline, down 14.2% m-o-m, according to Intertek. Average June CPO price dropped from RM2,396/tonne to RM2,317/tonne. YTD, CPO prices averaged at RM2,415/tonne, down 17.5% y-o-y.

We anticipate weaker CPO price performance in 2H18 due to the seasonal uptick in CPO production while demand grows at a slower pace.

Apart from that, Indonesia might continue to undercut the CPO prices against the Malaysian benchmark as they are currently having excess supplies. The little consolation is that Malaysia could potentially grab some additional orders from the Chinese market given the intensifying trade tension between China and the US. — PublicInvest Research, July 11
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 13, 2018, 05:39:15 PM
Palm oil price may fall to RM2,100/T, near current low


The price of Malaysian palm oil could drop to as low as 2,100 ringgit ($519.80) per tonne "in the medium term", edible oil analyst Thomas Mielke told an industry event in Seoul, not far from current levels which is the weakest in almost three years.

 "(There is) only limited downside potential on the BMD from current prices," he said, according to a copy of his presentation, referring to palm's benchmark palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange.

Malaysian palm oil fell to 2,176 ringgit on Thursday, the lowest since September 2015, tracking losses in prices of related edible oils amid weak demand and a festering trade dispute between China and the United States. The price has lost 6 percent this month.

 Mielke, editor of the Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World, said current Indonesian palm oil prices are also near their lows at $570-$580 a tonne, free-on-board basis. They have averaged $600 per tonne in June, according to Thomson Reuters Eikon data. <PALM-IDFOB-P1>

     Mielke also said the growth trend in China's soybean crushing could be temporarily interrupted due to its trade row with the United States, leading to higher palm oil imports.

 "China cannot satisfy all of its soybean import demand from non-U.S. origins," he said. "China is likely to raise palm oil imports, if the soybean crush is curbed."

 China typically imports soybeans to crush into meal for animal feed, leaving soyoil as a byproduct which competes with palm.

 Mielke slightly cut his outlook for palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together produce about 90 percent of global supply.

 He pegged 2018 output in Indonesia at 38.9 million tonnes and Malaysia's at 20.2 million tonnes. In March, he had forecast 38.8 million tonnes for Indonesia and 20.8 million tonnes for Malaysia.

 Next year's production in Indonesia is estimated at 40.5 million tonnes and Malaysia at 20.7 million tonnes, he said. ($1 = 4.0400 ringgit) - Reuters
 

Tags / Keywords:
Palm Oil , Plantations
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 13, 2018, 05:41:52 PM
Vegoils: Palm oil near three-year low tracking weakness in related oils

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in nearly three years on Friday and were set for a fourth session of losses, tracking declines in related edible oils.

The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange was down 0.1 percent at 2,183 ringgit ($540.61) a tonne at the midday break.

It earlier fell as much as 0.7 percent to 2,170 ringgit, the lowest since Sept. 22, 2015. It is down 3.7 percent so far this week, as sentiment was largely bearish due to weak demand and jitters over the Sino-U.S. trade spat.

Trading volumes stood at 18,288 lots of 25 tonnes each at the midday break.

“Weakness in CBOT soybean oil and Dalian olein prices are pressuring palm,” said a futures trader in Kuala Lumpur, referring to U.S. soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade and palm olein prices on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange.

The market was waiting for fresh triggers, another trader added.

Palm oil prices are usually impacted by the performance of other edible oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

The Chicago December soybean oil contract fell 0.4 percent, while the September soybean oil contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange slipped to 0.2 percent.

Meanwhile, the Dalian September palm oil contract eased 0.4 percent.

Palm oil is expected to break a support at 2,187 ringgit per tonne and fall more to 2,148 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals Wang Tao.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 17, 2018, 09:11:51 AM
SGS export 1-15th Jul 454,524mt vs 1-15th Jun 498,272mt, down 43,748mt (-8.78%)

AmSpec export 1-15th Jul 486,609mt vs 1-15th Jun 500,197mt, down 13,588mt (-2.72%)
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 23, 2018, 10:55:47 PM
Malaysia export 1-20 July 2018 vs. 1-20 June (in mt)
ITS : 722,401 vs. 695,263 (+27,138, or +3.90%)
AmSpec : 681,178 vs. 690,015 (-8,837, or –1.28%)
SGS
Malaysia's July 1-20 palm oil exports, +3.3% (MoM), SG
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 23, 2018, 10:56:19 PM
SPPOMA: 1-20th July vs. 1-20 June 18
Overall Summary :
Yield: +42.13%
OER : -0.56%
Production: +39.18%
Palm Oil Analytics
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on July 26, 2018, 10:57:06 PM
CPO Data Jul 2018

MPOB (June 18)
Stocks: 2.19 million tonnes (+0.8%)
Production: 1.33 million tonnes (-12.6%)
Exports: 1.13 million tonnes (-12.6%)

Amspec Export
Jul 1-10: 278,048 vs 324,947 (-14.4%)
Jul 1-15:  486,609 vs 500,197 (-2.7%)
Jul 1-20: 681,178 vs 690,015 (-1.28%)
Jul 1-25: 902,979 vs 860,217 (+5%)

SPPOMA Production
Jul 1-10: +8.61%
Jul 1-15: +12.96%
Jul 1-20: +39.18%
Jul 1-25: +27.61%

MPOA Production 1-20 Jul
Pen Malaysia            +22.1%
Sabah                       +10.7%
Sarawak                    +11.0%
Malaysia                   +18.0%
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 01, 2018, 09:31:48 AM
Malaysia's Palm Oil exports fall 3.9% in July

Exports of Malaysian Palm Oil products for July fell 3.9 percent to 1,030,909 tonnes from 1,073,224 tonnes shipped during June, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia.

Palm Oil futures in Malaysia slipped in early trade on Tuesday, tracking overnight losses in U.S. soyoil and on weak export data from a cargo surveyor.

Palm oil has declined 6.2 percent so far this year, in what could be its sharpest monthly drop since November.

Palm oil prices are influenced by the performance of other edible oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 07, 2018, 10:21:22 AM
Reuters Survey July vs Jun MPOB:
Prodn 1.54m vs 1.33m (+15.9%)
Impt 51k vs 86k (-40.7%)
Expt 1.14m vs 1.13m (+0.9%)
LDsp 302k vs 271k (+11.4%)
Stks 2.34m vs 2.18m (+7%)

CIMB Poll July vs Jun MPOB:
Prodn 1.499m vs 1.333m (+12%)
Impt 86k vs 86k (unch)
Expt 1.099m vs 1.129m (-3%)
LDsp 236k vs 271k (-13%)
Stks 2.438m vs 2.189m (+11%)

Bloomberg Poll July vs Jun MPOB:
Prodn 1.56m vs 1.33m (+17%)
Impt 50k vs 86k (-41%)
Expt 1.13m vs 1.13m (unch)
LDsp 230k-270k vs 271k
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 11, 2018, 02:14:16 PM
MALAYSIA'S JULY PALM OIL END-STOCKS UP 1.3 PCT TO 2.21 MLN T FROM JUNE – MPOB
MALAYSIA'S JULY PALM OIL OUTPUT UP 12.8 PCT TO 1.5 MLN T FROM JUNE – MPOB
MALAYSIA'S JULY PALM OIL EXPORTS RISE 6.8 PCT TO 1.21 MLN T FROM JUNE – MPOB
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 11, 2018, 02:14:51 PM
Malaysia Palm Oil Export 1-10 Aug vs. 1-10 Jul (in metric tons)
ITS : 300,326 vs. 281,651 (+18,675 or up 6.63%)
Palm Oil Analytic
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 16, 2018, 09:28:23 AM
CPO Data Aug 2018

MPOB (July 18)
Stocks: 2.21 million tonnes (+1.3%)
Production: 1.50 million tonnes (+12.8%)
Exports: 1.21 million tonnes (+6.8%)

AmSpec Export

Aug 1-10: 298,610 vs 278,048  (+7.40%)
Aug 1-15: 415,719 vs  486,609 (-14.6%)

SPPOMA Production

Aug 1-10: +0.12%
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on August 21, 2018, 03:24:29 PM
CPO Data Aug 2018

MPOB (July 18)
Stocks: 2.21 million tonnes (+1.3%)
Production: 1.50 million tonnes (+12.8%)
Exports: 1.21 million tonnes (+6.8%)

AmSpec Export

Aug 1-10: 298,610 vs 278,048  (+7.40%)
Aug 1-15: 415,719 vs  486,609 (-14.6%)
Aug 1-20 : 609,098 vs 681,178 (-10.6%)

SPPOMA Production

Aug 1-10: +0.12%
Aug 1-20: +3.88%
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: vincent88 on October 22, 2018, 03:09:00 PM
Dear all,

Anyone wish to receive the FCPO fundamental news and please let me know.
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: gabriel_88 on December 06, 2018, 10:16:18 AM
Thank you!!  :D :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: dan_koo on December 06, 2018, 10:29:39 AM
Not bad wor  :clap: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: CPO Latest Updated News
Post by: Folena on March 11, 2019, 07:51:41 PM
I think that palm oil has a lot of substitutes which might influence general demand for this product and its price volatility. Market is looking for lower prices in order to maintain profit margins, so cheaper substitutes will not do good for palm oil market