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Other Investments => Global Markets => Topic started by: zuolun on June 18, 2016, 01:37:41 PM

Title: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 18, 2016, 01:37:41 PM
US companies and sectors that are most exposed to a Brexit ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/17/us-companies-and-sectors-that-are-most-exposed-to-a-brexit.html

(http://img1.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22537/225371016d6f0690fe6e4f5d262e1977f427bc92.png)

IOI Corp has highest revenue exposure to Europe, says CIMB Research ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/17/ioi-corp-has-highest-revenue-exposure-to-europe-says-cimb-research/

Currency volatility biggest Brexit worry for S’pore firms ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/business/currency-volatility-biggest-brexit-worry-spore-firms

Brexit: India’s ties with Europe run deep ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/06/17/brexit-indias-ties-with-europe-run-deep/

Brexit: Which large-caps have earnings exposure to Britain? ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2016/06/16/brexit-which-large-caps-have-earnings-exposure-to-britain/

Some M’sian firms to take a hit if Brexit happens ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/16/some-msian-firms-to-take-a-hit-if-brexit-happens/

Overseas realty investors not jittery over UK vote ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://gulfnews.com/business/property/overseas-realty-investors-not-jittery-over-uk-vote-1.1846462

Investing in a volatile market ~ 28 May 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/05/28/investing-in-a-volatile-market

Goldman: Brexit will smash British companies — here are the ones which will be worst hit ~ 21 Mar 2016
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/goldman-brexit-smash-british-companies-131225901.html

(https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56eff354dd08958f5e8b45da-977-778/goldman%20prices.png)

Goldman Sachs: Brexit would hit banks and homebuilders most ~ 21 Mar 2016
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/21/brexit-would-hit-banks-homebuilders-goldman-sachs

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/a2d07d8a62f662732d23689e31dc5edd22579e74/0_0_838_355/master/838.jpg?w=1225&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=90fbcc4849fa4c2e3a736ced3642b9b1)

London property: 'Nervous' Battersea Power Station investors slash asking prices to re-sell ~ 4 Mar 2016
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/london-property-nervous-battersea-power-station-investors-slash-asking-prices-re-sell-1547647

(https://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1496144/battersea-power-station-property-london.jpg)

Brexit, Boris and British retailers ~  4 Mar 2016
http://www.german-retail-blog.com/topic/past-blogs/Brexit-Boris-and-British-retailers-371

Biggest U.S. with large European exposure
http://www.forbes.com/pictures/eejk45kmil/biggest-sp-500-companies-with-european-exposure-and-weak-balance-sheets
(http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/logopedia/images/a/a8/Coca-Cola_1950.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 20, 2016, 01:06:03 PM
The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year ~ 18 Jun 2016
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/man-accurately-predicted-4-market-063000480.html

(https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d17-1500/sandy%20jadeja%20photo.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: king on June 20, 2016, 02:11:50 PM



The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year
LIANNA BRINDED FINANCE    JUN. 18, 2016, 2:30 PM
image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d16-2400/destruction%20chaos%20painting.jpg

destruction chaos painting
Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire
The man who accurately predicted four market crashes to the exact date each time has told Business Insider about three more dates to worry about.

Sandy Jadeja is a technical analyst and chief market strategist at Core Spreads.

Technical analysts look at charts to pinpoint patterns in various markets and asset classes. From that, they forecast which direction prices are likely to move.

They can’t tell you the reasons why there will be a big market movement, only that there is going to be one.

He now warns that the following dates spell trouble for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets.

1. Between August 26 and August 30, 2016.

2. September 26, 2016.

3. October 20, 2016.

“We have interesting times ahead of us. We are dealing with issues on so many levels from economic uncertainty in the financial markets, including currencies and commodities as well as the rising house prices we have seen,” said Jadeja in an interview.

“I believe that using the information we have and embracing the tools and technology we have access to right now that we could use these to our advantage to prepare and protect as well as prepare and prosper.”

So what’s his secret?

The spot-on track record
image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d17-1500/sandy%20jadeja%20photo.jpg

SANDY JADEJA PHOTO
Sandy Jadeja
Sandy Jadeja is a technical analyst.

It is worth revisiting his track record.

In 2005, he said he warned 2,000 investors at a speaking event in Shanghai, China, a talk in New York at a Traders Expo, as well as banks and investment houses at a speaking event in Dubai about the property market crash — eight weeks before it happened.

More recently, on July 31, 2015, before flying to Singapore to speak at a conference of more than 5,000 people, Jadeja warned investors on CNBC that something big would happen on August 18, and to “be prepared to bank profits and stand aside.” There was then a flash crash where the Dow Jones Index lost 2,198 points (-12.5%) in just four trading days.

After that successful prediction, Jadeja told CNBC on August 28, 2015, that “there would be a further decline commencing on September 14 or 17, 2015. Then, yet again, the Dow Jones fell 991 points (-5.8%) over eight trading days.

And then on October 1, 2015, and in November, he told CNBC again that, “January 4, 2016 would face a bearish mood and see the markets fall despite the bullish consensus on Wall Street.” On that date, US markets and other global indexes fell sharply, where the Dow Jones shaved off 1955 points (-11.2%) over 11 trading days.

image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d18-2288/djchartsandy1.jpg

DJchartSandy1
Sandy Jadeja
How he predicts what the markets are going to do
Technical analysts use historical charts to spot patterns in the markets. They cannot tell you what event will move the markets. They can only tell you when a shift is likely to happen.

And we are in for some big bumps on the road to 2018, Jadeja said.

“We are currently in a very dangerous time zone between 2011 until 2018. This is an 84-year cycle [called the 'Time Cycle'] and the previous cycle appeared during 1928 until 1934 where the Great Depression took place,” he said.

Take a look at this chart:

image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d19-2306/sandychart2.jpg

SANDYCHART2
Sandy Jadeja/Signal Pro
Now take a look at the chart that mirrors that period:

image: https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/57654bb0dd0895a47c8b4d1a-2282/sandychart5.jpg

SANDYCHART5
Sandy Jadeja/Signal Pro
“This exact same cycle is what we are in right now. And so I am worried that we could see a potential threat to our economy in the current ‘Time Cycle’ we are witnessing right now,” said Jadeja.

“We have a situation. This lasts until 2018 for this particular cycle. And my worry is that we could see sudden sharp declines take place and tripping investors if they are not prepared,” he said.

Jadeja is convinced that the sudden declines will take place on three dates — between August 26 and August 30, September 26, and October 20, 2016 — in this “time cycle.”

But while it sounds bad, at least investors can take the market warnings on board and prepare themselves.

“We can use market data to help us forecast price targets and when we see price and time meet together there is a stronger than average potential for major turns in global markets,” he said


Read more at http://www.businessinsider.my/sandy-jadeja-interview-technical-analysis-dow-jones-market-crash-forecasts-2016-6/#rDJSvY34JPTbHufI.99
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: king on June 20, 2016, 02:12:48 PM



He now warns that the following dates spell trouble for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets.

1. Between August 26 and August 30, 2016.

2. September 26, 2016.

3. October 20, 2016.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 22, 2016, 07:38:31 AM
More tightening in mortgage lending likely: Macquarie analysts ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/more-tightening-in-mortgage-lending-likely-macquarie-analysts-20160620-gpne6w.html

(http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/n/l/i/s/m/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gpne6w.png/1466463313390.jpg)

Australia’s property correction, not bubble ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/australias-property-correction-not-bubble/2016/06/21/

HSBC: Property price growth to halve in 2016 ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/hsbc-property-price-growth-to-halve-in-2016-20160620-gpnvuo.html

(http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/p/1/m/z/5/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gpnvuo.png/1466494461070.jpg)

Australia taxes foreign home buyers as affordability bites ~ 19 Jun 2016
https://www.yahoo.com/news/australia-taxes-foreign-home-buyers-affordability-bites-032933388.html

(http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/afp.com/593b0ba2338fc01adaf27c607c7a3045902232e9.jpg)

Australian states impose stamp duty surcharge on foreign property buyers ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.step.org/news/australian-states-impose-stamp-duty-surcharge-foreign-property-buyers

Sydney introduces new stamp duty on foreign homebuyers ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-14/sydney-introduces-home-stamp-duty-on-foreigners-after-melbourne

NSW is hitting foreign property investors with $1 billion in new taxes ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/nsw-is-hitting-foreign-property-investors-with-1-billion-in-new-taxes-2016-6

(http://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2015/07/Auction-patrick-Riviere-GettyImages-51111676.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 22, 2016, 07:59:39 AM
优步(Uber)风行·销售疲弱·车市陷严冬 ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1539500/%E4%BC%98%E6%AD%A5%E9%A3%8E%E8%A1%8C%C2%B7%E9%94%80%E5%94%AE%E7%96%B2%E5%BC%B1%C2%B7%E8%BD%A6%E5%B8%82%E9%99%B7%E4%B8%A5%E5%86%AC

连接出行断点 优步(Uber)跨界旅游攻市场 ~ 19 Jun 2016
http://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2016-06-19/doc-ifxtfrrc3876622.shtml

优步(Uber)将发售杠杆贷款筹82亿 ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1537507/%E4%BC%98%E6%AD%A5%E5%B0%86%E5%8F%91%E5%94%AE%E6%9D%A0%E6%9D%86%E8%B4%B7%E6%AC%BE%E7%AD%B982%E4%BA%BF

Uber中国联合海航等公司推出“优步+旅行”战略 ~ 15 Jun 2016
http://it.sohu.com/20160615/n454554027.shtml

(http://pic1.36krcnd.com/nil_class/4e9e9b0c-9ec0-4800-8482-8567f1640557/_____2016-06-15___3.19.56.png!heading)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 23, 2016, 09:17:17 AM
Rio de Janeiro governor declares state of financial emergency ahead of Olympics ~ 23 Jun 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/17/rio-de-janeiro-financial-emergency-olympic-games-2016

Amazon jaguar shot dead after Olympic torch ceremony ~ 22 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-rio-jaguar-idUSKCN0Z72P4

Brazil’s acting president OKs transfer of $849 million to Rio de Janeiro state ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-acting-president-oks-transfer-of-849-million-to-rio-de-janeiro-state-1466551330

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-OP092_0621ri_M_20160621191506.jpg)

Oi bankruptcy spotlights Brazilian debt problems ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98e3ef1a-37cd-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f.html

(http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/06840063-f16e-40e5-9e12-5e6080a745b9.img)

Oi files for Brazil record $19 billion bankruptcy protection ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-20/oi-files-for-bankruptcy-protection-as-talks-with-creditors-stall

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iQodJJTsW3jE/v2/-1x-1.png)

Brazil 'to give Rio $850m' in aid for Olympic Games ~ 19 Jun 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/brazil-give-rio-850m-aid-olympic-games-160618163415697.html

Here's what really went wrong with Brazil's economy ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-latinamerica-brazil-economy-commentar-idUSKCN0YH08D

Brazil's economy shrinks for fifth consecutive quarter ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36425427

The origins of Brazil’s turmoil ~ 12 May 2016
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/05/brazil-impeachment-origins-america/481911/

Trouble in Brazil ~ 11 May 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-YhvrBKHWY

Brazil's 'broken' healthcare system ~ 5 Feb 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/02/brazil-broken-healthcare-system-160204075525812.html

(http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2016/2/4/82cf4711f72e4747a60b881ee7ee3d1e_18.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 29, 2016, 07:51:17 AM
"This crisis cannot be fixed by the central banks. They will try pumping more money, but it won’t help. A UK company working in the EU has to go through a huge adjustment and so does a German company making/selling products in Britain. That has nothing to do with liquidity. Until the new rules are established, and it will take years, most businesses will be paralyzed and that cannot be fixed by a liquidity injection. Many companies will go under while waiting for the trade deals to be negotiated. Welcome to the Dark Side! "

Alan Greenspan laments Brexit vote ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/alan-greenspan-laments-brexit-vote/news-story/561e29f8803d0e6f10616e33195ed9d2

The Great Unraveling ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bill-shireman/the-great-unraveling_b_10717748.html

(http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1641576/images/n-FRAYING-AMERICAN-FLAG-628x314.jpg)

Chinese investors join gold rush for haven after Brexit turmoil ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/chinese-investors-join-gold-rush-for-haven-after-brexit-turmoil

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i1OvDIXRHcSU/v2/-1x-1.png)

英国脱欧李嘉诚资产缩水11亿美元 巴菲特更惨 ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20160627/14528922_0.shtml

(http://p3.ifengimg.com/a/2016_27/c88faa171dc62e9.jpg)

Why Brexit really is a big deal for the U.S. economy ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://time.com/4383202/brexit-america-fallout-economy-fed/

Black swan playbook ~ 27 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-06-27/black-swan-playbook

Britain and the European Union: After the vote, chaos ~ 25 Jun 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21701264-britain-has-voted-leave-eu-what-follows-will-be-new-prime-minister-volatile-financial

Global central banks raise cash offer to quell Brexit panic ~ 24 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-24/central-banks-pledge-action-to-alleviate-strains-on-brexit-news

Why is America so alarmed by a Brexit vote? ~ 12 Jun 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d509ceee-2ef2-11e6-bf8d-26294ad519fc.html

(http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/462f4b65-b412-4ec1-93ae-025e538d4001.img)

Britain and the European Union: The real danger of Brexit ~ 27 Feb 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21693584-leaving-eu-would-hurt-britainand-would-also-deal-terrible-blow-west-real-danger

(http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/print-edition/20160227_LDD001_0.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: king on June 29, 2016, 07:55:39 AM


 :hi: :hi: :hi:

Welcome to the Dark Side! "

Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 03, 2016, 12:21:29 PM
Indian money in Swiss banks has dropped to a 20-year low ~ 1 Jul 2016
http://qz.com/720898/indian-money-in-swiss-banks-has-dropped-to-a-20-year-low/

Singapore MAS advises investors to be mindful of currency exchange risks ~ 1 Jul 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/mas-advises-investors-to-be-mindful-of-currency-exchange-risks

Moody's revises outlook on Singapore's banking system to negative ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/30/moodys-revises-outlook-on-singapore-banking-system-to-negative/

Brexit aftermath: Rating cuts may cripple United Kingdom ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/rating-cuts-may-cripple-uk

Brexit: Moody’s lowers outlook for 12 UK banks including HSBC, Barclays ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.ibtimes.com/brexit-moodys-lowers-outlook-12-uk-banks-including-hsbc-barclays-2388038

Singapore bank halts London mortgage loans after Brexit as Asia lenders flag risks ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/britain-eu-banks-uob-idUSL4N19M152

Italian bank crisis may be collateral damage from Brexit ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/28/investing/italian-banks-brexit-matteo-renzi/

Brexit seen to have negative impact on banking sector ~ 28 Jun 2016
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/brexit-seen-have-negative-impact-banking-sector

(http://cloud-maven.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/DSC03823.jpg)

Banks begin moving some operations out of Britain

By Martin Arnold and Laura Noonan in London
26 Jun 2016

Banks have already begun to take action to shift operations out of the UK, but most of their staff will have to wait several months to find out how many thousands of them will be asked to move to fledgling financial hotspots like Paris, Dublin and Frankfurt.

Investment banks, who donated heavily to the Remain campaign, have reacted immediately to Britain’s referendum result, with some of London’s largest institutions approaching regulators to secure licences and lining up executives to relocate.

The big US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley — have large operations employing tens of thousands of people in the UK. They have historically set up their regulated businesses in Britain and then used its right to “passport” into the rest of the 28-member bloc.

But lawyers are warning that after Brexit, they would likely need a new legal home base, so they are preparing to shift at least some work to cities such as Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt.

UK banks were also re-evaluating what to do with their businesses that trade EU — as opposed to UK — securities, because many analysts assume that clearing of those products will move to the continent.

HSBC said before the vote that it could move as many as 1,000 trading jobs to Paris in the event of a Leave. But because the bank already has a Paris office, it could defer any decision until right before the UK’s exit comes into effect.

The danger to the UK’s financial services sector was highlighted by François Villeroy de Galhau, France’s central bank governor, who warned that banks would lose “passporting” rights to operate in the EU if Britain leaves the single market.

The UK could try to adopt the path followed by Norway, which is a member of the European Economic Area but not the EU. But that has drawbacks: it requires Britain to implement all of the EU’s rules without having a say in writing them.

And Jonathan Hill, the Briton who resigned at the weekend as EU’s commissioner for financial services, told the Financial Times that he was not sure an arrangement would work. “Most approaches that offer access come with free movement of people and I can’t see that flying given the weight of immigration as an issue in the referendum debate,” he said.

The US banks, therefore, are already preparing for the contingency that the right to sell financial products and services from Britain to EU clients could be partially or entirely abolished.

“We’ll get on with it,” said a senior executive at one large US bank. “We’ve started to think about how we put people in our existing offices and entities in Europe. We are already rebalancing our footprint.”

“Some stuff will move quickly — we’ll travel at the pace of the slowest link,” said the executive. “Regulatory approvals and permissions can take time — we will look ahead at all the circumstances and ask what do we need to continue to serve our clients.”

Damian Carolan of Allen & Overy said it would typically take banks 2-3 months to put a licence application together. They would then have to wait for about six months for approval for an investment bank or brokerage, or nine months for a retail bank.

(http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/4a19417e-3be1-11e6-9f2c-36b487ebd80a.img)

But he warned that those timetables could be extended, saying: “That’s in normal times . . . In these times, you will have a number of onshore regulators getting numerous questions.”

Many of the US banks have been quietly bulking up European entities outside the UK, allowing them to transfer some activities quite quickly. But most of them still lack sufficient licences to carry out many of the operations they at present run out of London.

“If you don’t have a [full EU] licence [outside the UK] then you need to start work right away,” said the head of investment banking at a large group.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan chief executive, warned before the referendum that as many as 4,000 jobs could be shifted out of the UK. But investment bank boss Daniel Pinto — whose unit employs most of JPMorgan’s 16,000 staff in Britain — told the FT that the US group hoped to keep most of its UK investment bank intact. The bank would “need to figure out a way to deal with” some specific products and services, such as global custody and corporate deposits, but he said any moves would be gradual.

“We will not start moving people until we have clarity on what we will be allowed to do from the UK once the negotiations [on the terms of the country’s exit from the EU] start to take shape,” he said.

Jonathan Lewis, head of Japan’s Nomura International, which employs about 2,600 staff in London, said it would have to “wait and see” how things unfolded before making any big decisions about its locations or operating structures.

But his base case was that the UK would be left at a disadvantage. “I don’t see how anyone can say with any certainty that passporting will continue. Switzerland doesn’t have passporting, neither does the US, so we cannot assume we will,” he said.

Morgan Stanley had previously warned that 1,000 of its London jobs could move in the event of a Leave vote, but on Friday categorically denied a report that it had already decided 2,000 workers were being moved to either Dublin or Frankfurt.

Brexit: What next for investment banks? ~ 25 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAXVPZ-Ma80

Insurers protect German banks hoarding billions in cash ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/german-insurers-cash-idUSL8N1953EI

Swiss banks' new trouble spots ~ 9 Jun 2016
http://www.finews.asia/finance/22463-swiss-banks-new-trouble-spots

(http://www.finews.asia/images/cache/baff30e618725f88ee36483b8b35b182_w500_h300_cp.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: odie on July 06, 2016, 09:03:46 AM
Interest rate could hit 0%
http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/interest-rates-hit-0/

The Bank of England could cut the interest rate by 50 basis points and relaunch quantitative easing when the MPC meets on July 14, acording to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Ryan Fowler

July 5, 2016
bank of england 4

The Bank of England could cut the interest rate by 50 basis points and relaunch quantitative easing when the MPC meets on July 14, acording to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The swaps market is now pricing in a 15% chance of the base rate actually turning negative, a 50% chance of an interest rate cut in July, a 65% chance of a cut by August and an 80% chance of a cut by the end of the year.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch has said “We expect for them to cut interest rates 50 basis points at their 14 July policy meeting. We also expect the Bank of England to relaunch quantitative easing with a £50bn salvo; we pencil that in for August.”

Whilst research consultancy Capital Economics has added: “We think that a cut in interest rates in the near term looks likely and possibly even a restarting of the quantitative easing program.”

And Rosita Mendonca, marketing manager at Nova Financial, said its a good time for borrowers and a great time for firms to review their mortgage lending.

She said: “The UK mortgage market is bracing itself for a potential cut in interest rates as a result of the uncertainty after the historic EU referendum last week.

“Big names from all across the business world are predicting that the Bank of England will be cutting interest rates very soon. With some predicting that negative interest rates might even half to come to the rescue of the Bank of England.

 

“This is good news for borrowers, who can now expect lower interest rates in the near future. This all works because mortgage providers will pay less for the money they lend to consumers, as they borrow the money from the markets where rates are based on Gilts – or government bond – yields.”

Mark Carney came out after Thursday’s shock result with a statement to assure the markets that “The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning” and they “will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as those markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward.”

Mendonca added: “After all the uncertainty in the markets of late, only one thing is clear. It’s going to be a great time to review your mortgage lending.”
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: odie on July 06, 2016, 09:32:57 AM
Three UK real estate funds halt selling; what happens next?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/05/more-pain-to-come-for-uk-property-funds.html
Spriha Srivastava   | @spriha
9 Hours AgoCNBC.com
Slower demand for commercial real estate: BoE
Slower demand for commercial real estate: BoE
15 Hours Ago|02:58

The news that Standard Life, Aviva and M&G Investments have suspended dealing in their U.K. property funds has both investors and fund managers worried about the consequences on the broader sector.

Shares of Standard Life were down nearly 5 percent on Tuesday. Meanwhile, shares across other asset management companies were sharply negative too. Aberdeen Asset Management saw its shares down nearly 8 percent, while Schroders was down nearly 6 percent.

Standard Life was the first to announce suspension on Monday. Aviva Investors and M&G Investments followed the lead to announce a temporary suspension on Tuesday. All three companies have attributed the decision to a massive increase in investor redemptions because of high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property since the outcome of the referendum on June 23.

While all three companies have claimed that the decision was taken in order to protect the interests of investors who may be negatively impacted by this, the fear that this may be followed by more property funds has started to worry many.

"Redemptions have now reached a point where M&G believes it can best protect the interests of the funds' shareholders by seeking a temporary suspension in trading. This will allow the fund manager time to raise cash levels in a controlled manner, ensuring that any asset disposals are achieved at reasonable values," M&G said in a statement.
'Exceptional market circumstances'
(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/07/05/Capture_2.JPG)

Meanwhile, Standard Life in a statement said the decision to suspend trading in the real estate fund and its associated feeder funds from midday on Monday was taken due to "exceptional market circumstances". Aviva Investors echoed the same reason for suspension of dealing in their £1.8 billion property fund in an official statement.

"The decision was taken following an increase in redemption requests as a result of uncertainty for the U.K. commercial real estate market following the EU referendum result," Standard Life said. "The suspension was requested to protect the interests of all investors in the fund and to avoid compromising investment returns from the range, mix and quality of assets within the portfolio."

Standard Life further explained that unlike investing in equities, the selling process for real estate is sometimes lengthy as the fund manager needs to offer assets for sale and find prospective buyers. This process can take time.

Jonathan Bell, chief investment officer at Stanhope Capital told CNBC on Tuesday that the problem lies both in the property business and low earnings growth.

"The issue you have got is a lot of these companies cannot generate the earnings growth and on the insurance side you have got buying assets giving you very little yield and then on top of that you have got this current concern on the property business. I would have thought that is a short term-concern, you are going to carry on getting the yield but whether you are going to get growth as well is another issue," he said.
Shockwaves in markets
(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/07/05/Capture_1.JPG)

The decision by the U.K. to exit the EU has sent shockwaves across global markets. Stocks and sterling saw a massive sell-off in the days after the vote was announced. While the market tested a rally in the past week, analysts called the move a "dead cat bounce." The ongoing volatility in the markets has had a negative impact on retail funds that have seen massive outflows.

Property as an investment can be made either by physically purchasing a house or through Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) provided by funds. While this offers a diversification in an investment portfolio, they sometimes tend to see more challenges due to the nature of the real estate market in the U.K.

"Property funds are clearly under pressure as a result of the Brexit vote, and we could now see a new wave of investors being unable to liquidate their property funds quickly, which we last witnessed during the financial crisis," Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said in a daily note.

He further explained that part of the problem also stems from investing in an open-ended property fund as opposed to a closed-ended fund. An open-ended fund works like a collective investment scheme which can issue and redeem shares at any time; however a closed-ended fund works like a publicly traded company that is a structured, listed and traded like a stock on a stock exchange.

"Closed-ended property funds at least provide investors the chance to sell out during market upheaval, though widespread selling serves to depress share prices and widen discounts in times of stress," Khalaf said.

BoE in 'close touch'
Photographer | Collection | Getty Images

Speaking at the Bank of England's press conference to present the Financial Stability Report, Financial Conduct Authority Chief Andrew Bailey said the purpose of the suspension is to create a pause to revalue underlying assets.

He said the FCA is in very close touch with firms in the real estate sector and added this does point to issues in the design of real estate funds. He further added that his own feeling was that the structure of open-ended real estate funds needs to be reviewed.

The report also highlighted that foreign inflows of capital to U.K. commercial real estate fell by almost 50 percent in the first quarter of 2016.

While it is not certain how similar funds will react going forward, some analysts have said this can pose a big challenge for all open-ended funds property funds.

The Association of Investment Companies (AIC), a trade body for closed-ended investment companies told CNBC via email that closed-ended investment company structure is well-suited to illiquid assets such as property.

"We cannot speculate on what will happen next to the property sector but in past periods of uncertainty, for example, in the financial crisis, a number of open-ended property funds were closed and this stopped investors buying or selling the fund for a fixed period," Jemma Jackson, AIC's spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, the move from Aviva and Standard Life has led to concerns among investors who may have invested their money in other U.K. property funds. Insurance firm Legal & General said in an official statement that it hasn't halted redemptions.

"Legal and General's U.K. Property Fund remains well positioned in terms of liquidity and asset management initiatives. The fund retains over 20 percent of its NAV (net asset value) in liquid assets – the majority of which is held in cash," the company said in a statement.

Columbia Threadneedle meanwhile declined to comment on competitor's decisions. "We are monitoring the situation of property funds," a spokesperson told CNBC.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 07, 2016, 09:46:52 AM
US oil forms Big-M pattern, break below $45.80 confirms major trend reversal ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.econotimes.com/US-oil-forms-Big-M-pattern-break-below-$4580-confirms-major-trend-reversal-232116

(http://www.econotimes.com/assets/uploads/2016070630ad76a285ef87451_th_1024x0.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 07, 2016, 01:34:10 PM
Fed falters as threat of Brexit contagion looms ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/stephen-bartholomeusz/fed-falters-as-threat-of-brexit-contagion-looms/news-story/43ac44e2a48cc3fe108e81ad7439f75b

Australian dollar sags on S&P outlook cut, yen firms ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/yen-firms-sterling-droops-in-early-asian-trade.html

Brexit: Germany vying to emerge as European Union superpower following Britain's exit ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-07/germany-vying-to-emerge-as-eu-superpower-following-brexit/7574604

Families of Jewish refugees who fled the Nazis want to leave UK for Germany after Brexit ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-german-citizenship-jewish-refugees-nazis-freedom-of-movement-a7119541.html

The Brexit contagion could consume the French elite next ~ 30 Jun 2016
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/06/30-brexit-is-france-next-lecorre

‘Financial contagion’ biggest risk to U.S. from Brexit: Goldman ~ 29 Jun 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/financial-contagion-biggest-risk-to-us-from-brexit-goldman-2016-06-29

(http://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/story_large/public/thumbnails/image/2016/07/02/15/brexit-march-pa-2.jpg)

Italy may spur Pan-Europe bank crisis, SocGen chairman says ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/italy-could-spark-systemic-banking-crisis-socgen-chairman-says

European stocks slammed after property fund suspensions ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-fall-as-oil-prices-drop-brexit-worries-resurface-2016-07-05

Chart of the Day - US Dollar ~ 5 Jul 2016
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/07/chart-day-247-9.html

(http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/cotd-57.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 08, 2016, 07:39:30 AM
Italy’s plan for banks could roil Europe ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/07/business/dealbook/italys-plan-for-banks-could-roil-europe.html

Italy's teetering banks will be Europe's next crisis ~  7 Jul 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701756-italys-teetering-banks-will-be-europes-next-crisis-italian-job

(http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/2016/07/articles/main/20160709_ldd001_0.jpg)

Italian banks rank among worst in Europe by Texas ratio ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/italian-banks-rank-among-worst-in-europe-by-texas-ratio-chart

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ipS.Gts2yIbE/v4/-1x-1.png)

Europe’s next financial crisis ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-v-micallef/europes-next-financial-cr_b_10315364.html

(http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2016-06-06-1465178248-1641240-Euro_ECB.png)

The world is changing in ways the British left cannot comprehend ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/07/strange-death-liberal-politics

In rebound from brutal years, distressed debt returns soar in 2016's first half ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.forbes.com/sites/spleverage/2016/07/06/in-rebound-from-brutal-years-distressed-debt-returns-soar-in-2016s-first-half

(http://blogs-images.forbes.com/spleverage/files/2016/07/distress-ratio.jpg)

Overcoming a wall of worries ~ 21 Jun 2016
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brexit-fears-are-just-another-brick-in-the-wall-of-worry-2016-06-21

(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2016/06/21/Photos/NS/MW-EP802_banks__20160621135302_NS.jpg)

(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2016/06/21/Photos/NS/MW-EP804_WMC_06_20160621141503_NS.png)

(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2016/06/21/Photos/NS/MW-EP807_WMC_06_20160621144002_NS.png)

A rule has been broken on Wall Street, and ‘any banker with a brain’ is now looking for an exit ~ 14 Jun 2016
http://globaltimes.info/lifestyle/business/a-rule-has-been-broken-on-wall-street-and-any-banker-with-a-brain-is-now-looking-for-an-exit/

(https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/575e3a26910584e73c8c8379-813/screen%20shot%202013-03-25%20at%204.26.00%20am.png)

The walking dead: Something is rotten in the banking system ~ 6 Feb 2016
http://www.acting-man.com/?p=43141

(http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2016/02/3-Euro-Stoxx-Banks-1.gif)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 08, 2016, 01:16:09 PM
Trader bets on another major plunge for Deutsche Bank ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/07/trader-bets-on-another-major-plunge-for-deutsche-bank.html

Brexit set to bash Brits but not bolster Trump: CNBC survey ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/07/brexit-brits-but-not-bolster-trump-clinton-hillary.html

Sharp downgrades to British pound vs Euro & dollar forecasts at Goldmans and JP Morgan ~ 7 Jul 2016
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5148-gbp-vs-eur-and-usd-forecat-jp-morgan

Tony Blair, Iraq and the struggle for the British left: Why the U.K.’s political soap opera is important ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.salon.com/2016/07/06/tony_blair_iraq_and_the_struggle_for_the_british_left_why_the_u_k_s_political_soap_opera_is_important/

Brexit signals shift: political risk hits long-stable Western economies ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://blogs.reuters.com/financial-regulatory-forum/2016/07/06/brexit-signals-shift-political-risk-hits-long-stable-western-economies/

Pound crashes below $1.30 and bond yields hit record lows as Brexit aftershocks rattle global markets ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/06/ftse-pound-brexit-asia-markets-turmoil-eu-referendum/

(http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/577ca559dd0895892b8b4aac-959/gbpusd.png)

Goldmans Sachs: The pound could crash to $1.20 ~ 6 Jul 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pound-crash-below-130-2016-7

(http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/British-Pound-Brexit-Public-Domain.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 09, 2016, 06:21:35 PM
Chart: The epic collapse of Deutsche Bank ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-epic-collapse-deutsche-bank/

(http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/deutsche-bank-collapse-chart.jpg)

Dark days flag up challenges for Deutsche Bank ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/20ca7ce0-4503-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html#axzz4DlFGnC00

How Texas demonstrates why Italy's banks are floundering ~ 8 Jul 2016
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13633517/1/how-texas-demonstrates-why-italy-s-banks-are-floundering.html

(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user54151/imageroot/2016/07/07/July%207%20-%20Citi%20on%20Regional%20NPLs.JPG)

European banks and the never-ending European crisis ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/european-banks-and-europe%E2%80%99s-never-ending-crisis-200140421

How Italy’s oldest bank lost 99% of its value, and why the rest of the Italian banks are also a basket case ~ 7 Jul 2016
http://business.financialpost.com/news/how-italys-oldest-bank-lost-99-of-its-value-and-why-the-rest-of-the-italian-banks-are-also-a-basket-case

(http://wpmedia.business.financialpost.com/2016/07/0707italy.jpg?quality=60&strip=all&w=620)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 09, 2016, 06:30:31 PM
Brexit leaves Dutch property market simmering ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-netherlands-property-idUKKCN0ZO1UV

Commercial property prices could fall 20% after EU vote ~ 8 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/08/commercial-property-prices-brexit-clauses-ubs

House price growth slowest in pro-Brexit regions ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.theweek.co.uk/house-prices/61987/house-price-growth-slowest-in-pro-brexit-regions

(http://cdn1.theweek.co.uk/sites/theweek/files/styles/16x9_710/public/2015/07/150729-housing.jpg)

Europe’s most mortgaged housing market skirts oil crash ~ 8 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/europe-s-most-mortgaged-housing-skirts-oil-crash

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iyQdoClYtSPI/v2/-1x-1.png)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iBlD_Og0Xle8/v2/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 09, 2016, 06:45:27 PM
WTI crude oil closed @ US$45.41 (+0.27, +0.60%), booked a weekly loss of more than 7% ~ 9 Jul 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/oil-prices-edge-up-but-brent-notches-biggest-weekly-drop-since-january

WTI crude oil price forecast: ~13% decline puts fear back in crude bulls ~ 9 Jul 2016
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usoil/2016/07/08/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-13-Decline-Puts-Fear-Back-In-Crude-Bulls-.html

(https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2016/07/08/WTI-Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-13-Decline-Puts-Fear-Back-In-Crude-Bulls-_body_Picture_2.png.full.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 10, 2016, 07:10:27 AM
What is the meaning of Dark Cloud Cover (乌云盖顶)? ~ The Dark Cloud Cover (乌云盖顶), in candlestick charting, is a pattern where a black candlestick follows a long white candlestick. It can be an indication of a future bearish trend.

(http://i1127.photobucket.com/albums/l630/zuolun/darkcloudcover_zps2b7c2c85.gif)

"If people are not borrowing with interest rate at 0.5%, it is unlikely that a cut to 0.25% or zero will make much difference. However, such a cut would further negatively impact savers and pensioners. QE and low interest rates are deflationary. Why is this so hard for economists and central bankers to grasp?"

First BOE interest-rate cut since 2009 may come next week ~ 9 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/first-boe-interest-rate-cut-since-2009-may-come-next-week

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i9F.j66NKpcU/v2/-1x-1.png)

Falling gold, rising bonds: bad news for stocks ~ 8 July 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/bond-bubble-to-burst-200140668

(http://c3352932.r32.cf0.rackcdn.com/content/pic73f03e5fc2e370d148fb9da85cdc5718.jpg)

Plunging bond yields do not support higher stock valuations ~ 8 July 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3987111-plunging-bond-yields-support-higher-stock-valuations

(https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2016/7/7375661_14679759049866_rId5.png)

Larry Summers: Interest rates are at inconceivable levels, and we must confront what that means ~ 8 July 2016
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/06/larry-summers-interest-rates-are-at-inconceivable-levels-and-we-must-confront-what-that-means/

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2016/07/table.png)

Global negative-yielding bond pile nears $10 trillion: Chart ~ 6 July 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/global-negative-yielding-bond-pile-nears-10-trillion-chart

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ifZgy6FN_.QM/v4/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 14, 2016, 08:46:11 AM
Malaysia central bank cuts overnight policy rate to 3% ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-central-bank-cuts-overnight-policy-rate-to-3-1468395023

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-OB551_Malays_M_20160517213624.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 14, 2016, 12:02:56 PM
UBS said to have flagged suspicious 1MDB transactions to MAS ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/ubs-said-to-have-flagged-suspicious-1mdb-transactions-to-mas

Pua: Deloitte can lodge police report on 1MDB ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/07/13/pua-deloitte-can-lodge-police-report-on-1mdb/

(http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/tony-pua-deloitte-1mdb-1.jpg)

Malaysia's 1MDB agrees to request for arbitration filed by UAE's IPIC ~ 11 Jul 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-scandal-1mdb-idUSL4N19X37P

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/04/07/07/54/1mdb-april16.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=43DD0585EE2672D8DCF0CA87516016FC3EC0C626)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 15, 2016, 02:17:08 PM
Indonesia’s sukuk more attractive than Malaysia’s ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/highlight/2016/07/15/indonesias-sukuk-more-attractive-than-malaysias/

Malaysian bond rally falters as central bank dashes easing odds ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-15/malaysian-bond-rally-falters-as-central-bank-dashes-easing-odds

Malaysian bond: 3-year yield fell to 2.85%; 5-year yield @ 3.22% on 14 Jul 2016.

Ringgit hit a 10-week high after rate cut; BoE stimulus views lift Asia ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/ringgit-hit-a-10-week-high-after-rate-cut-boe-stimulus-views-lift-asia

Malaysian ringgit: After the central bank's surprise interest rate cut on 13 Jul 2016; the ringgit rose 0.5% to 3.95 per dollar on 14 Jul 2016

(http://media.therakyatpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/rgt-usd-blmb.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: king on July 15, 2016, 02:35:08 PM



英国新财长保证
“竭尽所能”支撑经济
58点看 2016年7月15日
英国新任财政部长哈蒙德。
英国新任财政部长哈蒙德。

(伦敦15日讯)英国新任命的财政部长哈蒙德表示,英国公投决定脱欧“扰乱信心”,他将“竭尽所能”支撑英国经济。


哈蒙德周四受访时说:“第一个挑战就是稳定经济,给未来的信心指出方向,并对市场、企业、国际投资人提出未来计划。”

在脱欧公投后,英镑重挫,消费者信心跌到21年低点,面对这种情况,央行行长卡尼力图摆脱进一步的动荡。

新闻来源:彭博社

Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 15, 2016, 02:54:16 PM
1MDB scandal reaches UBS ~ 12 July 2016
http://www.finews.asia/finance/22618-1mdb-ubs-najib-razak-aabar

(http://www.finews.asia/images/cache/ef308b8cde736fb410d52b9842b30769_w500_h300_cp.jpg)

(http://www.finews.asia/images/cache/fa3a57a55712f6ebc818abf690aef835_w500.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 16, 2016, 05:45:13 AM
Bank Negara governor: OPR cut is pre-emptive ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/15/bank-negara-governor-opr-cut-is-preemptive/

Pound on track for its best week since 2009 after Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/14/ftse-100-hits-fresh-11-month-high-and-pound-rises-ahead-of-bank/

Bank of England leaves UK interest rates on hold at 0.5% ~ 14 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/14/bank-of-england-leaves-uk-interest-rates-on-hold-at-05

Maybank lowers interest rates to 3% ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/14/maybank-lowers-interest-rates-by-20bps/

BNM cuts interest rate to 3% ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/13/bnm-cuts-opr-to-3pct-at-its-monetary-policy-committee/

"If people are not borrowing with interest rate at 0.5%, it is unlikely that a cut to 0.25% or zero will make much difference. However, such a cut would further negatively impact savers and pensioners. QE and low interest rates are deflationary. Why is this so hard for economists and central bankers to grasp?"

How do changes in national interest rates affect a currency's value and exchange rate?
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040315/how-do-changes-national-interest-rates-affect-currencys-value-and-exchange-rate.asp

How currency changes affect imports and exports
http://study.com/academy/lesson/how-currency-changes-affect-imports-and-exports.html

First BOE interest-rate cut since 2009 may come next week ~ 9 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-08/first-boe-interest-rate-cut-since-2009-may-come-next-week

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i9F.j66NKpcU/v2/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 18, 2016, 10:17:31 AM
Thousands of Venezuelans cross into Colombia in search of food and medicine ~ 17 Jul 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/venezuela-colombia-bridge-photo_us_578be683e4b0867123e1ab77

(http://www.dw.com/image/0,,19392449_403,00.png)

(http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/578be7171300002d0005e593.jpeg)

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-OY381_0717ve_P_20160717130537.jpg)

(http://www.dw.com/image/0,,19405480_403,00.jpg)

My picture of the week: A roll of toilet paper and right back home ~ 16 Jul 2016
http://www.dw.com/en/my-picture-of-the-week-a-roll-of-toilet-paper-and-right-back-home/av-19403050

(http://www.dw.com/image/0,,19402930_304,00.jpg)

Analysis: Venezuelan military had big role in economic woes ~ 15 Jul 2016
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/venezuelans-military-begins-campaign-combat-shortages-192006834.html

(http://jamaica-gleaner.com/sites/default/files/styles/jg_article_image/public/media/article_images/2016/07/15/Venezuela-Military9.jpg)

Venezuela bonds at risk as military takes control ~ 15 July 2016
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2016/07/15/venezuela-bonds-at-risk-as-military-takes-control/

(http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-OU263_0706ve_E_20160706134058.jpg)

Venezuela trucks food directly to the poorest as chaos spreads ~ 13 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-13/as-chaos-spreads-venezuela-trucks-food-directly-to-the-poorest

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHdQy3kFlL08/v0/1200x-1.jpg)

In China, Venezuela default talk is front-page news ~ 16 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/in-china-venezuela-default-talk-is-front-page-news-amid-crisis

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i1BIWfCC9U1U/v2/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 18, 2016, 11:23:35 AM
Bakery looted amid Venezuela food widespread shortages ~ 29 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Il0ZVy3nyIQ

How the wheels fell off of Venezuela's socialist revolution ~ 23 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkQKJM4s8A0

Footage of Looting & Food Riots in Venezuela ~ 21 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzqYjH0X2WU

Venezuela’s food shortages trigger long lines, hunger and looting ~ 17 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZGQ4ZLEM6qA

How Venezuela’s socialist dream collapsed into a nightmare ~ 26 May 2016
http://www.vox.com/2016/5/26/11774482/venezuela-socialist-collapse

(https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/17ckCG0UIFxLWD9puc5vuVAP0co=/0x80:4616x3157/1310x873/filters:format(webp)/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49696503/Venezuela_protest.0.0.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 19, 2016, 06:30:39 AM
屋漏偏逢连夜雨,船迟又遇打头风。

Court orders Parkson Retail units’ bank deposits be frozen ~ 19 July 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/19/court-orders-parkson-retail-units-bank-deposits-be-frozen/

Parkson Retail Asia: SGX extends MTP review to September ~ 3 Jun 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/business/sgx-extends-mtp-review-13-companies-september

(http://cdn.theborneopost.com/newsimages/A0057997238080587012007.jpg)

Parkson’s decline a sign of the times for retail stores ~ 11 Jun 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/11/parksons-decline-a-sign-of-the-times-for-retail-stores/

Stiff competiton: File picture showing workers sorting out packages at an express delivery company in Beijing. Like many other traditional retail stores, Parkson has no answer to the rapid rise of e-commerce. Apart from AliBaba, there are many other websites that cater to e-shoppers. – AFP

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/06/10/19/01/bizd_1106_psj_12b_psj_1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=46D04E338BB05A18724579EB821E7EC0A36756A1)

JD.com launches drone delivery in rural Jiangsu ~ 8 Jun 2016
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-06/08/c_135423101.htm

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CkcEQ6dUgAA1Xs2.jpg)

JD.com for the first time used its self-developed drones to deliver online purchases made by villagers in Suqian city of East China's Jiangsu province. JD staffer Liu Genxi, pictured, sends the packages to village shoppers after collecting the delivery from a drone.

(http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-06/08/135423101_14654338620221n.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 22, 2016, 03:31:44 PM
马币再走贬.兑美元跌至4.0420令吉 ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1549194/%E9%A9%AC%E5%B8%81%E5%86%8D%E8%B5%B0%E8%B4%AC%EF%BC%8E%E5%85%91%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E8%B7%8C%E8%87%B340420%E4%BB%A4%E5%90%89

(http://ugc.qpic.cn/baikepic2/26060/20141013164803-23555473.jpg/0)

一马发展公司再起波澜,加上云顶卖压大影响,马股和马币双双败走 ~ 21 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__61OCnC6CI

Malaysian shares slide amid global growth woes, 1MDB concerns ~ 21 Jul 2016
asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/Malaysian-shares-slide-amid-global-growth-woes-1MDB-concerns

1MDB: Malaysian PM under pressure over $1bn US fraud case ~ 21 Jul 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36852560

(http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/6E7E/production/_90468282_mediaitem90468280.jpg)

美国司法部拟追回1MDB逾十亿美元资产 ~ 20 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31j0OB0OBoM

金融管理局:我国部分银行 反洗黑钱方面有疏漏 ~ 20 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NL-hePiZrMk

Nazir Razak did not misuse his position, says CIMB board ~ 19 May 2016
www.todayonline.com/world/asia/nazir-razak-did-not-misuse-his-position-says-cimb-board

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image_lightbox/public/photos/43_images/25985847.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 22, 2016, 05:26:23 PM
Singapore puts 1MDB-linked banks on notice: We’re not done ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-21/singapore-puts-banks-linked-to-1mdb-on-notice-we-re-not-done

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icKVt8fpdYDQ/v5/400x225.jpg)

Ringgit heads for worst week since September on oil, 1MDB woes ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-22/emerging-assets-fall-on-outlook-for-less-stimulus-ringgit-drops

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ieMQCfTzlWtk/v2/-1x-1.png)

1MDB: Malaysia AG's response to US DOJ suit raises serious concerns ~ 22 Jul 2016
http://english.astroawani.com/malaysia-news/1mdb-malaysia-ags-response-us-doj-suit-raises-serious-concerns-111752

US lawsuits reveal Jho Low used father, brother to divert 1MDB-linked funds ~ 22 Jul 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/349518

(http://cdn1.thecoverage.my/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/BN-NP446_0418jl_H_20160418131645.jpg)

Jho Low gambled away millions from 1MDB funds in Las Vegas casinos: US DOJ

By Jude Chan
July 21, 2016   

Malaysian businessman Low Taek Jho, also known as Jho Low, gambled away millions of dollars which he had misappropriated from Malaysian state development fund 1MDB at Las Vegas casinos, according to the US Department of Justice.

The details came to light as US Attorney General Loretta Lynch on Wednesday announced a civil action seeking the recovery of more than US$1 billion (S$1.36 billion) worth of assets linked to a conspiracy to launder funds taken from 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB).

US authorities also accused Red Granite Pictures of using US$100 million that was diverted from 1MDB to finance the film “The Wolf of Wall Street”. Red Granite is helmed by Riza Aziz, the step-son of Malaysia Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who oversaw the 1MDB fund.

According to the 136-page court papers, 1MDB-linked funds were used to fund the luxurious lifestyles enjoyed by Low and his associates, including Aziz.

Low allegedly gambled for approximately seven days at the Venetian Casino after US$11 million was deposited into his account at the casino on 10 July 2012.

On 15 July 2012, several individuals reportedly gambled with Low at the casino, using his account. These individuals included Aziz, Eric Tan Kim Loong, and at least one former official from 1MDB.

Tan, an associate of Low, was the stated beneficial owner of several bank accounts into which misappropriated 1MDB funds were transferred.

Over a period of less than eight months from 30 October 2009 to 18 June 2010, more than US$85 million in funds traceable to a Swiss bank account held in the name of Good Star Ltd was wired to Las Vegas casinos, luxury yacht rental companies, business jet rental vendors, a London interior decorator, and associates and family members of Low, among others.

According to banking records, Good Star was a company controlled by Low, and Low was also the Good Star account’s beneficial owner and sole authorized signatory.

Wire transfers between October 2009 and October 2010 included approximately US$12 million in wires to Caesars Palace, a Las Vegas casino; and approximately US$13.4 million in wires to the Las Vegas Sands Corp, the owner of the Venetian Las Vegas casino.

Riza Aziz said US$94m siphoned from 1MDB was a 'gift', DOJ claims ~ 21 Jul 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/349361

(http://cdn1.thecoverage.my/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/terence_2.jpg)

‘Wolf of Wall Street’ film was financed with stolen money: feds ~ 20 Jul 2016
http://nypost.com/2016/07/20/wolf-of-wall-street-was-financed-with-stolen-money-feds/

(http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTm52BWbxXmwOpfz5rmx0BNBj79kSQoGpYPq4TVt07Jel5En6aC)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 23, 2016, 08:38:55 AM
Azmin: Najib must address nation on 1MDB scandal ~ 21 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/07/21/azmin-najib-must-address-nation-on-1mdb-scandal/

Declassify 1MDB audit or fuel cover-up beliefs, Azmin tells PM ~ 15 Jul 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/348617

(http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/azmin-1mdb.jpg)

Malaysia foreign exchange reserves at US$97.3 billion as at 15 July 2016
http://www.bnm.gov.my/

Malaysia foreign exchange reserves (1997-2016)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/foreign-exchange-reserves

Malaysia foreign exchange reserves decreased to US$97,200m in June from US$97,263.17m May 2016. Foreign Exchange Reserves in Malaysia averaged US$83,120.69m from 1997 until 2016, reaching an all time high of US$155,165.30m in Aug 2011 and a record low of US$20,234.20m in Aug 1998.

(http://img9.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22662/22662559ac511db2dab78de8905f2c60f291e4fb.png)

(http://img0.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22656/226562603fa96e251ffe018dc765ee9745563959.png)

Malaysia bond yields fall to lowest since 2013 on surprise OPR cut ~ 14 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/14/malaysia-bond-yields-fall-to-lowest-since-2013-on-surprise-opr-cut/

Interest due on 1MDB bond paid by Abu Dhabi guarantor ~ 11 May 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-due-on-1mdb-bond-paid-by-abu-dhabi-guarantor-1462959185

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OJ-AJ460_1MBDBO_9U_20160508090312.jpg)

Market braces for second 1MDB bond payment ~ 10 May 2016
http://www.msn.com/en-my/money/topstories/market-braces-for-second-1mdb-bond-payment/ar-BBsQ1sL

(http://edgemarkets.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/pictures/1mdb-bond_table_fd_100516_theedgemarkets.png)

Malaysia central bank takes dollar deposits as ringgit sinks ~ 30 Oct 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-29/malaysia-central-bank-said-to-take-interbank-dollar-deposits

Malaysia’s eventual fall from grace ~ 22 Oct 2015
http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2015/10/22/malaysias-eventual-fall-from-grace/

(http://blog.limkitsiang.com/wp-content/images/malaysia-currency-1MDB.png)

Malaysia government’s decision not to peg ringgit appropriate, says economist ~ 30 Sep 2015
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/governments-decision-not-to-peg-ringgit-appropriate-says-economist

Malaysia turns to 1998 currency peg architect as markets bleed ~  27 Aug 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-26/malaysia-turns-to-1998-currency-peg-architect-as-markets-bleed

Emerging world battles the mighty US dollar

By Michael Collins, Investment Commentator at Fidelity
2 June 2015

When the Federal Reserve embarked on its third dose of quantitative easing in 2012, Brazil’s then-finance minister Guido Mantega slammed the Fed’s decision as the start of a “currency war”. The Fed was doing no such deliberate deed. But it was true to warn that a side effect of asset buying that reduced longer-term interest rates was a lower US dollar.

Wonder how Mantega feels now that the 28% plunge in the real against the US currency in the year to May is tormenting Brazil’s economy. So October last year, the central bank has raised its benchmark rate in six steps to a six-year high of 13.75% to prop up the real and fight the inflationary consequences of the currency’s dive. Inflation reached 8.2% in the 12 months ended April, while Brazil’s economy is headed for its worst recession in 25 years, if not 80 years.

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/charts/2016/03/1457557885_20145082_TN_DIGITAL_CHART_LINE_Brazilian_Real_03.png)

One of the US dollar’s speediest ascents since President Richard Nixon ended gold conversion in 1971 is creating similar woes across the emerging world, especially in Chile, Hungary, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and Venezuela. The US dollar has soared 19% over the 12 months to May on a trade-weighted basis as it climbed against about three-quarters of the 24 emerging currencies. The US dollar’s climb is even quicker and steeper than its rise in the mid-1990s that triggered the Asia crisis of 1997, smashed Brazil and pushed Russia to default in 1998.

A stronger US dollar poses many of the same threats for emerging markets as it did a quarter of a century ago with one fresh twist. The dangers of a higher US dollar, as with 25 years ago, are that it savages living standards and fans inflation via higher import prices. (For those emerging countries with currencies tied to the US dollar, it batters export competitiveness.) Simply via the cross rates, a rising US dollar undermines commodity prices in US dollars, so many emerging countries are facing a collapse in export earnings. Lastly, it boosts debt repayments on US-dollar loans.

The last challenge comes in a different form than in the past and could be the most worrying of all. In emerging countries, companies – rather than governments – are holding record amounts of US-dollar debt. Thus, unlike the past, it’s the corporate bond market in the emerging world that is a bigger menace than the government bond market. Corporate default rates and downgrades are rising as emerging-market companies – from state-owned oil giants in Brazil and Russia, to Indian infrastructure companies, to domestic players with earnings only in local currency in China and Turkey – are tottering under US-dollar debts. State-owned Russian gas producer OAO Gazprom, for example, has borrowed US$12 billion (A$16 billion) since 2008, while Chinese property company Kaisa, which has defaulted on US$1.25 billion worth of bonds, has sold double that amount. (Quasi-government bodies are struggling too – Malaysia’s state investment company, 1Malaysia Development Bhd, was restructured to avoid collapse.)

Emerging currencies are tumbling, for capital flows are heading back to the US because the Fed is poised to raise the cash rate for the first time in nine years, such is its confidence in the US economy. Emerging nations could be headed for big trouble if the Fed lifts rates faster and by more than expected over the coming 12 months. Among all the fretting from emerging nations about the strong US dollar, they should remember two truths. First of all, home-grown causes are behind much of the dive in their currencies. The other is that the opposite scenario – a falling US dollar – would probably be a bigger hurdle for it would hamper the only fall-back plan most have for reviving their economies.

Perhaps US rate increases are built into expectations thanks to the Fed “dot plots” of where it expects US rates to be in coming times. Some of the emerging-country exposure to US-dollar loans is hedged through derivatives. Unexpected and rapid-fire US rate increases will disrupt more than emerging countries too. Interest rates around the world are lower than they were in the 1990s and the US dollar is not as strong, so the repayment burden imposed by these factors is relatively lighter than it was back then. Emerging governments are better insulated than their companies for they have preferred to borrow in local currency. Emerging Asia overall is well placed with its deeper foreign reserves, sounder banking systems and more flexible exchange rates, even if governments and consumers have borrowed heavily in local currency. Asian ex-China companies are said to earn enough US-dollar revenue to match their US-dollar debts. While many of its companies are vulnerable, China’s pegged (thus rising) yuan helps to steer its economy away from exports and towards consumption. The pressure of the rising US dollar is spurring reforms that the emerging world would have postponed if capital were still flowing in. The Indian rupee’s record low of 2013 is credited with granting the Reserve Bank of India the political space to raise interest rates three times to tackle inflation, while New Delhi has taken steps to curb its deficit and welcome more foreign investment. Indonesia has taken similar steps. But alas there are enough debt-heavy companies in the emerging world to cause ructions if US rates (and thus the US dollar) rise suddenly or by more-than-expected. Naturally, these corporate woes would shift onto governments, especially when state companies are in trouble.

Looked sound

Companies in the emerging world latched onto borrowing in US dollars because US interest rates have been below local rates since the Fed cut the US cash rate to close to zero in 2008 and embarked on three asset-buying programs from early 2009. Global bond managers were happy to buy US-dollar emerging bonds because the returns were higher than they could find on US government or US corporate bonds. The Bank of International Settlements estimates that from 2008 to 2014 US-dollar credit to non-bank borrowers in the emerging world jumped from US$2 trillion to about US$4.5 trillion, about the half the global amount outstanding. Within this total, US-dollar credit to Brazil, China and India has more than tripled to US$1.4 billion. Chinese non-bank companies have US$1.1 trillion of this.

This lending includes loans from banks and bond investors. (A bond is just a loan that can be resold.) Much of the bank lending happened outside the US banking system because non-US banks can easily attract deposits of the world’s foremost reserve currency. These lenders and borrowers are thus beyond the help of their local central banks, which can only act as lender of last resort in local currency. They are essentially subjects of the Fed while being outside the Fed’s jurisdiction.

Companies found it easier to borrow than attract equity investment because presumably equity investors saw them as too risky. Emerging companies were well aware of the currency risk of borrowing in US dollars. But those engaged in trade thought this peril was counterbalanced by their US-dollar earnings. They didn’t appear to allow for the cross-rates effect on commodities from a higher US dollar; when commodities prices drop in US dollars but remain steady in local currency for that’s all people can afford. They seem to have made no allowance for the possibility that materials and energy prices could plunge due to supply-demand imbalances. Fed rate increases will only add to their repayment burden. The global financial system thus confronts a new weak link; rollovers of maturing emerging corporate debt, especially by first-time issuers. J.P. Morgan expects the default rate among emerging-market high-yield corporate issuers to reach 5.4% this year compared with 3.2% in 2014 and about 2% in the US.

Authorities in emerging markets are devouring forex reserves to support their currencies, in part to shield their companies. IMF data shows forex reserves in emerging economies fell US$115 billion to US$7.74 trillion last year, the first drop since the series was compiled in 1995. Governments of commodity-dependent emerging countries are already losing tax revenue from the drop in commodities and confront economic slowdowns that will boost welfare spending. Their budgets won’t cope easily with nursing companies wobbling under US debt loads. Thus sovereign ratings are vulnerable. At the same time, the current-account deficits of these countries are widening as export earnings droop. In another crunch to domestic growth, local interest rates need to rise to attract the capital needed to cover current-account shortfalls as well as to curtail inflationary pressures from higher import prices. Thus growth prospects are diminishing in the emerging world, a formula for more political instability. Emerging-world debt is now attracting a higher premium to allow for increased political risk.

Dead end

The countries and companies that face the most problems do so in no small part because missteps by their governments have undermined currencies, on top of the fact that most left themselves over-reliant on a few commodities, if not one. Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is threatened with impeachment over a multi-billion-US-dollar bribery scandal tied to the state oil company, Petrobras, that she oversaw as chair. Oil-dependent Russia’s economy is expected to contract about 4% this year as western sanctions in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine bite. South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma is mired in scandals including one over a state-funded home renovation. Turkey’s government is threatening the independence of the country’s central bank and investors are concerned about the country’s economic policy after parliamentary elections in June. Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy is expected to shrink 7% this year as the country groans under a shortage of daily necessities and an estimated inflation rate of 70%, conditions all made worse because the US has imposed sanctions to protest against a crackdown on dissidents by President Nicolás Maduro. (Argentina would be on the list but it’s already defaulted.)

Given all the angst about a rising US dollar, it may be a relief for emerging countries that their currencies gained against the greenback in recent months, especially April when 17 of 24 emerging currencies tracked by Bloomberg rose. Russia’s ruble rallied 13% in April, the best month for a currency that halved in 2014 since 1993. Brazil’s real jumped 8% the same month, its first gain since August. Malaysia’s ringgit strengthened 3.9%, its biggest gain since 2012, while Korea’s won added 3.8%, its best spurt since 2011. South Africa’s rand might have only edged up 1.5% but that gain ended five months of losses.

But it was only less-optimistic readings on the US economy that boosted these emerging currencies in April. Weaker reports on US housing, employment and retail sales that culminated in the US economy shrinking at an annualised rate of 0.7% in the first quarter of this year have prompted talk the Fed would postpone its first rate increase until later in the year or even into 2016.

A lower US dollar due to a weaker US economy will hardly help the hardest-hit countries that for the most part are falling back on the default plan for weak-willed countries with savaged currencies – to bank on the US consumer to buy their exports.

A slowing US economy only dims hopes for export-led recoveries in these countries, which already rely on US demand. About 10% of Brazil’s export goods, for starters, head to the US. The numbers for Chile, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa and Venezuela are 13%, 12%, 9%, 8%, 6% and 34%. The emerging world is far better off with a powering US economy, even if that comes with a higher US dollar. It’s thus better authorities in the emerging world take steps that impress investors rather than whine about a high US dollar or wish for a weaker one.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 27, 2016, 06:07:07 PM
Deloitte tries to quit as 1MDB auditor, as international investigations of fund tied to Malaysia PM Najib heat up ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deloitte-tries-to-quit-as-1mdb-auditor-as-international-investigations-of-fund-tied-to-malaysia-pm-najib-heat-up.html

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/07/27/103820211-GettyImages-475939114.530x298.jpg)

Malaysia PM Najib Razak gets new powers amid protests over 1MDB fund scandal ~ 27 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/27/malaysia-pm-najib-razak-gets-new-powers-amid-protests-over-1mdb-fund-scandal

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/49f6dada65c15eabbf59750a8f362c0b931f620c/0_165_4200_2520/master/4200.jpg?w=1920&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=c4e85b47c0deb1f1234fe8f1a9828827)

Malaysia won’t interfere with foreign 1MDB legal action ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysia-wont-interfere-with-foreign-1mdb-legal-action-1469530664

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-PC183_0726ma_P_20160726043447.jpg)

1MDB: Goldman Sachs faces suit over ties to Malaysian fund ~ 26 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/26/1mdb-goldman-sachs-faces-lawsuit-over-ties-to-malaysian-fun.html

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/07/26/103817903-GettyImages-578240920.530x298.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 29, 2016, 08:54:18 AM
Massive blow to millions of bank customers as HSBC threatens negative interest ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3710269/Now-HSBC-threatens-negative-Santander-plots-slash-rate.html

Three things that show investors are making a huge bet on low interest rates ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-28/three-things-that-show-investors-are-making-a-huge-bet-on-low-interest-rates

Negative interest rates: Spreading like a financial cancer ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3992478-negative-interest-rates-spreading-like-financial-cancer

(https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2016/7/27/169827-14696511337082422.jpg)

Dollar tumbles as Fed stresses gradual path for interest rates ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/dollar-falls-as-fed-underscores-gradual-path-for-interest-rates

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iGDr.5EZIWxg/v2/-1x-1.png)

Peter Schiff calls Fed's bluff; Scott nations folds ~ 27 Jul 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bHKMyrr-iY

Global negative-yielding bond pile nears $10 trillion: Chart ~ 6 July 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-06/global-negative-yielding-bond-pile-nears-10-trillion-chart

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ifZgy6FN_.QM/v4/-1x-1.png)

Markets betting on near-zero interest rates for another decade ~ 18 Mar 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-cenbanks-rates-idUSKCN0WB1QG

(http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/1/450/450/NEGYLDS2.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 29, 2016, 05:17:24 PM
受一马案原油价影响令吉再次跌破3.00

28 Jul 2016

受到一马公司洗黑钱事件,加上原油价格继续趋弱,令吉再次跌破3.00,分析师预估,不排除或会持续下跌至3.20。

今早新元兑令吉的银行间兑换率,一度高达到1比3.01。而国际原油价则已跌至每桶为44美元。对此,受访的分析师预估,随着一马公司洗黑钱事件尚未平息,外加上国际原油价格下跌,一旦令吉跌破3.05,不排除会继续跌至3.20。

泰源私人有限公司技术分析培训主管王玢霓受访时表示,一般来说,令吉2.85至3.00之间的价位属于正常波动,不过今早已跌破了3.00。

一些钱币商,1新元可换3令吉。

(http://www.fx-exchange.com/currencyimages/SGD-MYR-30-day-exchange-rates-history-graph.png)

Nurul Izzah wants Malaysians to focus on 1MDB ~ 28 Jul 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/07/28/nurul-izzah-wants-malaysians-to-focus-on-1mdb/

(http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/1mdb11.jpg)

The Guardian view on Malaysian politics: a scandal meriting the world’s attention ~ 28 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/28/the-guardian-view-on-malaysian-politics-a-scandal-meriting-the-worlds-attention

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/31b52e5a5e29f8521c5bda982b4b88b10aad86d9/178_14_2461_1477/master/2461.jpg?w=1920&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=bb99cf863e3840ac140067d7ed2a7230)

1MDB: The inside story of the world’s biggest financial scandal ~ 28 Jul 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/28/1mdb-inside-story-worlds-biggest-financial-scandal-malaysia

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/340c995c2c45a82edb4a62180e7960f706523612/0_0_2560_1536/master/2560.jpg?w=500&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=794112239b5e49d75aeba235981cccbd)

Ringgit extends July slump as oil falls, 1MDB returns to focus ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/ringgit-extends-july-slump-as-oil-falls-1mdb-returns-to-focus

Fund lawyer who worked with Goldman holds 1MDB clues, U.S. says ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-27/fund-lawyer-who-worked-with-goldman-holds-1mdb-clues-u-s-says

Deloitte tries to quit as 1MDB auditor, as international investigations of fund tied to Malaysia PM Najib heat up ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deloitte-tries-to-quit-as-1mdb-auditor-as-international-investigations-of-fund-tied-to-malaysia-pm-najib-heat-up.html

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/07/27/103820211-GettyImages-475939114.530x298.jpg?v=1469596598)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 30, 2016, 11:07:26 PM
Malaysia valuation and property services department
http://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal

首季屋价涨幅跌破7%‧5年新低 ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1551120/%E9%A6%96%E5%AD%A3%E5%B1%8B%E4%BB%B7%E6%B6%A8%E5%B9%85%E8%B7%8C%E7%A0%B47%E2%80%A75%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%B0%E4%BD%8E

2016年第一季初步全屋价指数涨幅跌破7%,创5年新低纪录,大马房地产评估及服务局预测,受全球经济状况不稳定影响,2016及2017年产业市场将持续放缓,但不至于导致市场崩盘。

(http://cdnnews.sinchew.com.my/sites/default/files/mwl2016072704.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 04, 2016, 03:45:37 PM
No break for worst Asian currency as clouds gather over Malaysia ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-04/no-break-for-worst-asian-currency-as-clouds-gather-over-malaysia

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iLUI4LD6lgYA/v2/-1x-1.png)

Hike in Singapore wages could draw more Malaysian professionals ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/hike-singapore-wages-could-draw-more-malaysian-professionals

(http://news.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/styles/w641/public/original_images/Aug2016/160804_Merlion_ST.jpg)

Red Shirts ready to counter Bersih 5, says Jamal ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/08/03/red-shirts-ready-to-counter-bersih-5-says-jamal/

(http://s3media.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/jamal-yunus.jpg)

Bersih 5 rally confirmed ~ 3 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNQ0mp-lig8

(http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20160803&t=2&i=1148122024&w=644&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=LYNXNPEC720BZ)

Gerakan Youth offers to secure stadium for Bersih 5 rally ~ 3 Aug 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/gerakan-youth-offers-to-secure-stadium-for-bersih-5-rally

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/images/sized/ez/20150830_MAY_BERSIH_02_620_412_100.jpg)

RM1.154 million from 1MDB was spent on 'anti-ageing' products for "B1 and wife"! exclusive ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.sarawakreport.org/2016/08/rm-one-million-of-1mdb-money-on-anti-ageing-products-for-b1-and-wife-exclusive/

1MDB scandal: US DoJ's civil suit to recover state fund's monies a 'private matter' says Minister ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/1mdb-scandal-us-dojs-civil-suit-recover-state-funds-monies-private-matter-says-minister-1573743

Goldman Sachs subpoenaed by U.S. agencies for documents related to 1MDB ~ 29 July 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/goldman-sachs-subpoenaed-by-u-s-agencies-for-documents-related-to-1mdb-1469838131

U.S. lawsuits link Malaysian leader to stolen money from 1MDB fund  ~ 21 Jul 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-scandal-usa-idUSKCN10009X

(http://www.dealstreetasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/1mdb-e1469059883941-750x417.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 14, 2016, 10:32:11 AM
Singapore cuts top end of 2016 GDP forecast on weak outlook ~ 11 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-11/singapore-lowers-top-end-of-2016-gdp-forecast-on-weaker-outlook

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ixvOuKR5LJpE/v2/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 14, 2016, 10:48:53 AM
'Bank Negara, governor's credibility at stake over kid gloves on 1MDB' ~ 13 Aug 2016
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/352141

‘1MDB case is closed’ ~ 13 Aug 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/08/13/1mdb-case-is-closed-bank-negara-investigations-over-and-proper-action-has-been-taken/

1MDB: The case that has riveted Malaysia ~ 22 July 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33447456

(http://s3media.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/1mdb-bandar-malaysia-1.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 17, 2016, 12:08:06 PM
丑闻缠身大马急售重要资产 港媒忧中国区域势力坐大 ~ 16 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3aGIFMoJw

The hidden costs of China’s lifeline in the 1MDB scandal

By Sheridan Mahareva
16 August 2016

With Malaysia facing long-term repercussions for embracing Chinese money, experts warn prime minister is turning a personal scandal into a national problem

By spending about RM16 billion ringgit (US$4 billion) on troubled Malaysian state investor 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), China has bought a lot of clout in the corridors of power in this Southeast Asian nation.

Last month’s civil suit by U.S. authorities against personalities tied to 1MDB and their assets comes as local leaders worry the global financial scandal will have a deeper impact.

It is not just a question of whether Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak will serve out his term, or whether 1MDB’s mammoth debts will be fully repaid.

It is also now the country’s shrinking ability to chart independent domestic and foreign policy, because of the expensive deals — overt and covert — that will have to be made to resolve the scandal.

Some 1MDB critics also claim it is no coincidence the suit by the U.S.’ Department of Justice comes at a time of growing Chinese influence in Najib’s administration.

They point to the backdrop of the South China Sea disputes, where Malaysia and other Association of Southeast Asian (Asean) countries are locked in overlapping territorial claims with Beijing, and where the United States wants to maintain its dominance.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets and property in November and December to two separate Chinese firms last year was part of the company’s push to raise money to pay the company’s debts.

1MDB, which is Najib’s brain child and whose advisory board he heads, racked up RM42 billion in debts within five years of operation. A former prime minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, described 1MDB as the country’s single largest financial scandal and has been campaigning for Najib to resign.

Although Najib has repeatedly denied wrongdoing, the U.S. civil suit pointedly states that US$3.5 billion was “stolen from 1MDB” by its officials and their associates. Of that amount, about US$1 billion was laundered through the US and used to buy lavish properties, expensive paintings and pay gambling expenses in the U.S.

China’s purchases of 1MDB assets had helped reduce its debts to RM40.4 billion, Najib said in his 2016 New Year’s Day address. But at least one deal was controversial.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets to China General Nuclear Power Corp would have breached the limit of foreign ownership rules for local electricity companies.

1MDB critic and opposition law maker Rafizi Ramli had campaigned unsuccessfully to block the sale, claiming that it would threaten local jobs in the energy sector.

“Allowing a foreign company to fully control electricity production operations for a major national power producer has great risk.

“Electricity supply could be disrupted if there are future problems and the increase in tariffs would be based on the interests of these foreign companies,” Rafizi said last November.

Another parliamentarian, Wong Chen, said in the end the cabinet allowed an exemption to the foreign equity rules so that the deal could go through.

The government had made an exception, because it was desperate to bring in money to pay 1MDB’s debts, Wong said.

“There will be long-term geopolitical repercussions for Malaysia, because of this intense interest in embracing Chinese money,” Wong told This Week in Asia.

The trend of favouring mainland companies over others in large infrastructure projects in the future was likely to continue, said another parliamentarian, Charles Santiago.

The RM50 billion Singapore-Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail project is another venture that could involve either expertise or money from China, he said.

“The Najib administration had also floated the idea of a nuclear power plant and this too could involve money from China.”

In Sarawak, a region that straddles the island of Borneo in East Malaysia, China’s pull in Malaysia is already affecting the incomes of local fishermen.

Reports from late last year claimed that Sarawakian fishermen — like their counterparts in Indonesia and the Philippines — had been chased away from their traditional fishing grounds in the Luconia Shoals by armed Chinese vessels.

In March, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Authority (MMEA) had reportedly spotted a fleet of Chinese trawlers fishing in the area.

Malaysia claims the shoals as being in its waters. But unlike Indonesia and the Philippines, it has yet to confront or capture Chinese fishing boats that poach in the area, despite vowing to do so.

Malaysia’s low key approach could be due to both China’s help with 1MDB and the country’s history with the superpower, said Dr Tang Siew Mun, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“Malaysia was the first Asean state to normalise relations with Beijing [in the 1960s] and it was the current prime minister’s father who paved the way for the renewed bilateral relations,” Tang said.

“Malaysia’s growing dependence on China for not only trade but investment, too, has had a direct impact on its response to the South China Sea disputes.”

In June, Malaysia unilaterally released what was supposed to be a joint-Asean statement on disputes in the South China sea, after an Asean meeting with China in Kunming (??). However, the statement was retracted hours later, raising eyebrows all-round as to why Malaysia did it — to force Asean’s hand or to show China up.

Tang of ISEAS believes China is likely to continue to deploy large-scale fishing fleets to affirm its claims over the sea. This could trigger more friction between the maritime forces and fishing fleets of Malaysia and China.

“This puts pressure on Malaysia to respond to these Chinese intrusions, pitting its political-economic [interests] against strategic interests,” said Tang.

In the end, said lawmaker Santiago, “Najib has succeeded in turning his personal scandal into a national problem”.

Sheridan Mahareva is a Kuala Lumpur-based journalist.

潘俭伟反击纳吉:巫统领袖才"反马来人" ~ 14 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QKmgSKBfA5k

(http://chinese.irakyat.my/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/33190cd12f8409b79b2c1ca1acfab567.jpg)

纳吉再撇清一马案 遗憾商业课题遭政治化 ~ 5 Aug 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wbpv8y26Y8

(http://cdn4.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/980x551/public/images/methode/2016/08/16/aafeccd8-6379-11e6-aefa-e8609c477948_1280x720.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 19, 2016, 09:53:07 AM
The land of Genghis Khan is having an epic economic meltdown ~ 18 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-18/lessons-from-the-epic-economic-meltdown-on-the-border-of-china

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iek8Mpxy1MUU/v2/-1x-1.png)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iKCdwpWx7CqE/v3/-1x-1.png)

库存压力仍较大 玉米市场长期依旧看空 ~ 18 Aug 2016
http://www.tech-food.com/news/detail/n1297219.htm

Expert: Corn could be culprit for low prices ~ 16 Aug 2016
http://www.mitchellrepublic.com/news/local/4095753-expert-corn-could-be-culprit-low-prices

内蒙古和东北部分地区遭受旱灾 直接经济损失84亿 ~ 10 Aug 2016
http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2016/08-10/7967910.shtml

(http://www.hinews.cn/pic/003/011/319/00301131909_f0f25f30.jpg)

Floods devastate pig farms across China ~ 4 Aug 2016
http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/42171/floods-devastate-pig-farms-across-china/[/img]

(http://www.thepigsite.com/uploads/files/slir/headline/imagelib/1539_AdobeStock_90352316.jpeg)

Recession hits China — long with 10% growth ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-02/recession-hits-china-along-with-10-growth-as-provinces-diverge

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/if1C_tcMxMG8/v2/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 20, 2016, 06:57:46 AM
Swiber's creditors can get insight into firm's finances next month ~ 20 Aug 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/swibers-creditors-can-get-insight-into-firms-finances-next-month
Beleaguered offshore marine group Swiber Holdings has received claims totalling about US$135.9 million as at Aug 18.

Swiber aside, the O&G nightmare for banks is far from over

By Gwyneth Yeo
August 18, 2016

Maybank Kim Eng is maintaining its negative rating on the Singapore banking sector, amid concerns over potential defaults and non-performing loans from highly leveraged oil & gas (O&G) support services companies.

Maybank Kim Eng’s Ng Li Hiang says the Swiber episode has highlighted the “elevated risks to Singapore banks’ balance-sheet exposure to the beleaguered O&G support services sector”. In particular, Ng notes that asset quality among banks had deteriorated in 2QFY2016 on the back of new non-performing assets from the sector.

To be sure, the O&G sector is not the only one facing challenges in this business environment. “Although O&G is not the only sector to face further asset quality deterioration, in the face of a broader sluggish economic growth environment, it is arguably the biggest pressure point amongst the various sectors’ loan exposure at this moment,” says Ng in a note on Thursday.

Bond yields have risen for some of the smaller O&G players in Singapore to between 25% and 30% according to Maybank Kim Eng’s estimates. At the same time, some Singapore-listed O&G companies like Cosco Corporation, Vard Holdings, Otto Marine and Ezra are overleveraged with a net debt to equity ratio of more than 100%.

In particular, O&G support services companies have some of the largest exposure to local lenders. DBS Group Holdings has the largest exposure among Singapore banks as 7% of its loans are for the O&G sector with 5% for the higher risk upstream and support services segments. In contrast, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation had a 6% exposure to O&G companies and 3% to the upstream and support services segments. United Oversea Bank has the lowest exposure, with 4% loans for the O&G sector and 2% for the upstream and support services segment.

Maybank Kim Eng estimates that Singapore banks’ non-performing loan ratio for the O&G support services is between 3% and 15%, which Ng says “is low given where the credit cycle stands today”.

If NPL (non performing loan) ratio reached 20% and 30% levels, Ng observed that the potential increase in specific provisions for DBS would be the largest among the three banks, of between 216% and 374%. In comparison, UOB’s specific provisions would increase 43% to 115%, and OCBC’s would increase by 34% to 101%.

Splitting the increased provisions evenly over FY2016 and FY2017, earnings for DBS will fall the most at between 3% and 5%, and UOB’s earnings will fall the least by 1% to 2%.

On the other hand, all three banks’ book values are expected to see minimal impact of less than 0.5% from higher NPL ratios.

Shares in DBS, OCBC, and UOB are trading at $14.77, $8.42, and $17.56 respectively at noon.

Swiber’s bankruptcy debacle: Here’s 1 investing lesson you shouldn’t miss

By Hui Leong Chin
August 17, 2016

It was an announcement that caught the market by surprise. And, there might be a lesson in there for investors.

On 28 July 2016, Swiber Holdings Limited  (SGX: BGK) revealed that it had filed an application to wind itself up. Prior to that, Swiber stated it had received letters of demand for payments totaling US$25.9 million. To compound the issue, the services provider to the oil and gas industry also failed in a recent attempt to raise US$200 million from a preference share sale agreement.

Then, came the next surprise. Swiber swiftly changed its mind about winding up and decided to place itself under judicial management instead. Interestingly, the judicial management decision came after Swiber had discussions with a “major financial creditor.”

The oil and gas conundrum

The oil and gas industry has been under pressure over the past year and a half and has dragged the banking sector in Singapore through the sludge as well. 

As the Swiber debacle unfolded, DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05), Singapore’s largest bank, revealed that it had about S$700 million worth of exposure to the oil and gas firm.

The swift implosion at Swiber caught DBS by surprise. In a recent press conference, DBS’s chief executive Piyush Gupta said that there was little indication the implosion would happen.

A tale of two different bank views

Earlier this year, Gupta had noted that the oil and gas support services sector – which Swiber belongs to – was under some stress.

But, Gupta said that 80% of loans DBS had extended to the sector were secured with assets with a loan-to-value (LTV) in the region of 50% to 60% of the assets’ latest appraised values. Gupta also cited an example of a liquidation of collateral where DBS was able to recover the full value of its loans. He said that the example gave him some assurance that the appraised values were realizable.

This assumption might be put to the test again at Swiber.

Elsewhere, Gupta’s counterpart at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Limited (SGX: O39)  sounded less sanguine. At around the same time Gupta made his comments about the strength of DBS’s loans to the oil and gas support services sector, Samuel Tsien, OCBC’s chief executive, said that OCBC was trying hard to make sure that the vessels of the companies it had lent to remain employed.

In Tsien’s view, he would rather have the vessels be at work rather than have his borrowers be out of business and hence, liquidating their assets. OCBC thinks that having loans that are secured with assets may not be enough. Tsien was concerned that there might not be buyers for distressed assets in an oversupplied market.

So for investors interested in banks or oil & gas companies, will Gupta prove to be right in his assessment? Or will Tsien’s reasoning prevail?

I will take door number three, please

If you are feeling confused, there is at least one more person for company: The debacle makes my head spin.

To be sure, I can understand both Tsien’s and Gupta’s points of view. I appreciate each CEO’s reasoning. It is also within my ability to understand how banks operate. The same goes for oil and gas companies.

But understanding something does not mean I can make a good judgement on the situation. The range of possible outcomes are too difficult for me to judge.

As such, the best investment move for me is to avoid such questions altogether. I don’t feel like I have an edge in figuring out a situation like this.

Ergo, I would rather put the “Swibers” and “DBS-es” of the world into my “too hard” bucket. I think that investors should recognise that there is always a third door: You can choose to completely avoid particular companies if the understanding isn’t there. I would even argue that this should be the first question to be asked when looking at an investment opportunity for the first time.

The best investment lesson from the Swiber debacle might be the reminder that we always have choice of only investing in companies in which we can make good judgements on and avoiding those that we can’t.

S'pore feels aftershocks of Swiber's fall ~ 17 Aug 2016
http://business.asiaone.com/news/spore-feels-aftershocks-swibers-fall

(http://business.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/styles/article-image/public/2016/08/03/20160803_swiber_st.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 20, 2016, 03:52:23 PM
China's empty oceans ~ 17 Aug 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-17/it-s-up-to-china-to-save-asia-s-oceans

Chinese are the world's biggest seafood consumers.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iTqUuN51Nw7Y/v0/1200x-1.jpg)

China pledges to cut size of its massive fishing fleet due to serious threat to nation’s fish stocks

By Stephen Chen
15 August 2016

Government minister says industry must develop in a way that is not destructive to the environment

Overfishing in Chinese rivers and seas has seriously depleted stocks and the government is to cut the size of the nation’s fishing fleet, the agricultural ministry said.

A well-known fishermen in Tanmen, Hainan province, said local fishermen have been told not to increase their fleet while counterparts in other provinces have been told to cut the number of ships by 3 per cent.

The ministry said there were practically “no fish” in the coastal East China Sea and fishermen also had a hard time finding a catch in many other coastal waters, according to a state radio report on Sunday.

Agriculture minister Han Changfu told China National Radio that it was time to trim China’s fishing fleet, the world’s largest, to protect fish stocks.

Han, the minister in charge of the fishery sector, listed a series of actions the department planned to take against the industry’s overexpansion, including cutting the number of fishing vessels.

China’s deep-sea fishing in the world’s oceans must develop under tightened regulations, supervision and self-discipline, “gradually getting rid of the outdated ways of production that are destructive to the environment,” Han said.

The minister did not provide figures for plans to cut the fishing fleet.

He said, however, that the proposals would ultimately help raise fishermen’s incomes.

The ministry says Chinese controlled seas can sustain a catch of between eight million to nine million tonnes per year, but in recent years the catch has been about 13 million tonnes.

Similar depletions have also occurred in inland waterways.

For instance, the top four fish species now lay less than one billion eggs a year in rivers, down from about 30 billion, the radio report said, citing agricultural ministry data.

China consumes more than a third of the world’s seafood supply.

The World Bank forecasts demand for seafood in China will increase by another 30 per cent by 2030.

Many coastal provinces in China give diesel subsidies to ocean-going trawlers, helping to increase the number in operation.

As the fuel counts for more than a third of the fishing industry’s operational costs, according to some mainland media reports, the subsidies allowed the fleet’s production capacity to double between 2012 and 2014.

Poor catches in coastal waters have driven Chinese fishermen further afield, including to disputed waters near China and even as far as the Indian Ocean. Japan’s government protested earlier this month after more than 230 Chinese fishing boats and armed coastguard ships sailed into the waters near the disputed Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.

China’s strengthening of territorial claims over the South China Sea has also pushed fishermen in Hainan to go further to fish, and with government subsidies.

He Shixuan, the fisherman from Tanmen who owns five steel-hulled trawlers, said fishermen there were also affected by the policy to cut back the size of fleets.

“While our counterparts in other provinces are required to slash up to three per cent, in Hainan we’re only required to retain zero growth,” he said.

With more than 40 years’ experience at sea, He recalled how in his youth fish could be seen where you looked, but today one has to search hard for a catch.

“One third of fish in the sea has gone over the past few years,” he said. “Compared with the 1980s, fish stocks have fallen by 60 per cent.”

China has taken several steps to curb overfishing, including banning nets with extremely small holes that catch very young fish and sea creatures.

It also imposes a three-month offshore fishing moratorium every year.

The decision to reduce the fishing fleets was “certainly a good thing to do”, but not enough, said Professor Cai Shengli, a marine biologist at the College of Fisheries and Life Science at Shanghai Ocean University.

If the government removed smaller, older boats from the fleet the industry would build bigger vessels capable of longer-distance voyages as long as Chinese consumers’ demand for seafood kept growing at a “scary pace”, Cai said.

A possible solution was to convert trawlermen to fish farmers, he said.

Some coastal provinces have established aquatic farms in fishing villages, producing a greater output than the annual catch in recent years.

This has raised hopes that China can meet demand for seafood without exhausting global fish stocks.

The downside of fish farms was the added pollution they contributed to coastal cities, plus a limited number of suitable locations.

This might lead the Chinese government to subsidise fish farms in more distant waters, such as in the South China Sea, Cai said.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 03, 2016, 10:12:32 AM
Venezuela’s oil output set to collapse as 1 million take to the streets ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Venezuelas-Oil-Output-Set-To-Collapse-As-1-Million-Take-To-The-Streets.html

Venezuela's government fights to disrupt massive protest against president ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/caracas-venezuela-maduro-demonstration-1.3745415
Inflation, crime and food shortages spark demand for referendum to remove Maduro

Venezuela protests: Large anti-Maduro march held in Caracas ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-37243191

(http://www.trbimg.com/img-57c898e8/turbine/la-fg-demonstrations-venezuela-20160901/750/750x422)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 03, 2016, 10:28:41 AM
Singapore: 38 new Zika cases reported on Friday, bringing total to 189 ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/38-new-zika-cases-4-have-no-known-links-any-existing-cluster

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image_lightbox/public/photos/43_images/27300556.JPG)

Singapore a 'role model' in handling Zika outbreak: WHO ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/no-evidence-of-olympic-zika-spread-who-committee-says/3096144.html?cid=fbcna

(http://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/2842600/1472822441000/large16x9/768/432/the-who-said-moving-the-olympics-would-not-have-a-major-impact.jpg)

Zika in Malaysia: What you need to know about the virus ~ 1 Sep 2016
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/09/169858/zika-malaysia-what-you-need-know-about-virus-video

Malaysia reports first case of Zika virus ~ 1 Sep 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/malaysia-reports-case-zika-virus-160901053721835.html

Singapore's surge in Zika cases amplifies economic fears ~ 30 Aug 2016
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Singapores-surge-in-Zika-infection-cases-worries-the-nation-and-beyond

(http://asia.nikkei.com/var/site_cache/storage/images/node_43/node_51/2016/201608/0829n2/0829n-zika/5002136-1-eng-GB/0829N-Zika_article_main_image.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 08, 2016, 06:12:43 AM
Deutsche Bank: Here's which countries would suffer the most from five major economic shocks ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/deutsche-bank-here-s-which-countries-would-suffer-the-most-from-five-major-economic-shocks

Many Malaysian households at risk of shocks ~ 3 Sep 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/09/03/many-malaysian-households-at-risk-of-shocks/

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/09/02/19/03/bizw_pg14g_sept3_ky_1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=F8996F22963C8E2FCAEF540E4AF3BFB574182886)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 08, 2016, 08:55:15 AM
Singapore Zika cases hit 283; potential new cluster Elite Terrace ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-zika-cases-hit-283-potential-new-cluster-elite-terrace/3108596.html

Malaysia confirms first case of pregnant woman infected with Zika ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/malaysia-confirms-first-case-of-pregnant-woman-infected-with/3108028.html

Malaysian infected by Zika died from heart disease complications - ministry ~ 5 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/malaysian-infected-by-zika-died-from-heart-disease-complications/3098142.html

Zika virus going global ~ 5 Sep 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-p7WqaDGkbc

Two billion at risk of Zika virus in Africa and Asia ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2016/09/two-billion-at-risk-of-zika-virus-in.html

Zika virus confirmed in US mosquitoes ~ 2 Sep 2016
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Zika-virus-confirmed-in-US-mosquitoes-30294355.html

Zika turns food centres into 'ghost towns' ~ 31 Aug 2016
http://news.asiaone.com/news/singapore/lunch-crowd-staying-clear-sims-drive-and-aljunied-crescent-food-centres

(http://news.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/styles/w641/public/original_images/Aug2016/30_08_2016_dszika31_tnp.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 12, 2016, 08:36:20 AM
Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals fall 46% in August ~ 9 Sep 2016
https://smaulgld.com/shanghai-gold-exchange-withdrawals-fall-46-august/

(https://i2.wp.com/smaulgld.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/shanghai-gold-exchange-withdrawals-through-August-2008-2016.png)

Chinese exports slow their decline; imports increase

Exports slide 2.8% as imports see first gain in almost two years
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-exports-slow-their-decline-imports-increase-1473313928

By Mark Magnier
Sept. 8, 2016 1:52 a.m. ET

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-PS987_0908ct_M_20160908010704.jpg)

BEIJING — Chinese exports fell again in August as weak demand and global uncertainty continued to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy, though the decline wasn’t as steep as in July and imports rose for the first time in nearly two years.

Exports slid 2.8% last month over year-earlier levels, following a decline of 4.4% in July, the General Administration of Customs said Thursday. The median forecast from 15 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal was for a 4% export decline.

Imports in August increased by 1.5% from a year earlier, reversing a 12.5% slump in July. The rise, which beat forecasts, was largely a reflection of higher prices for raw materials with little sign that domestic demand, consumption or investment have picked up.

China’s trade surplus narrowed slightly in August to $52.05 billion, below economists’ median forecast of $59.40 billion, compared with $52.31 billion in July.

“In general, the figures are quite positive for both exports and imports,” said Standard Chartered Bank Ltd. economist Shuang Ding.
“But domestic demand is still more or less the same. I don’t expect any major pickup.”

Export comparisons were helped somewhat by the calendar as last month saw two more working days than August 2015. The yuan also depreciated by around 7% year on year in July against a basket of currencies, which made Chinese exporters more competitive when signing August contracts, Mr. Ding said.

China’s customs agency said exports should improve by the fourth quarter, citing improved confidence, rising orders and declining costs seen in a recent online survey it conducted. But economists said exports, a once-vaunted growth engine for China, are likely to remain subdued for the foreseeable future.

Qingdao Duobao Furniture Trade Co., an exporter of glassware and glass tables in the eastern China port city of Qingdao, said it expects its sales to decline in the second half on soft global demand after a 20% drop in the first half.

While the weaker yuan has helped it offer more competitive prices, the company said profit margins are still getting squeezed by rising labor costs and weak demand. Qian Yong, the company’s general manager said she hoped Beijing would negotiate more free-trade agreements that reduce tariffs so exporters can better compete in foreign markets.

“China’s economy will likely slow down for quite a long time,” she added. “It’s almost impossible to expect a return to the boom conditions of the past.”

Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipping firm, announced plans last month to halt service to 10 smaller Chinese ports as Chinese exports weaken. The World Trade Organization has downgraded its 2016 forecast for global trade growth to 2.8%, the fifth year of growth below 3%. This compares with average annual global trade growth of over 7% between 1990 and 2008.

Capital outflows have eased in recent months after a flood of capital left the country late last year and early in 2016. On Wednesday, China reported that its foreign-exchange reserves fell by $160 billion as of the end of August, compared with July levels, to reach $3.19 trillion.

But companies are likely to continue using trade deals to move money out of China, which imposes strict capital controls, economists said.

One way to do this is by inflating on documents the value of imports from Hong Kong. Imports from the territory, whose economy is separate from the mainland’s, rose 14.3% year on year last month. While this is less than prior months, it is still significantly higher than the growth of overall imports.

China-Hong Kong trade is a “channel of speculative flows,” said investment bank Natixis, part of France’s Groupe BPCE, in a report. As long as the market expects the yuan to depreciate against the dollar, “there will be outflow of funds,” Natixis added.

Tens of thousands of jobs go as China’s biggest banks cut costs ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/tens-of-thousands-of-jobs-go-as-china-s-biggest-banks-cut-costs

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iJLtQdDZi_0g/v3/-1x-1.png)

China reserves at lowest since 2011 as PBOC supports yuan ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-07/china-fx-reserves-drop-to-lowest-since-2011-as-pboc-defends-yuan
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iuhR1v82cgmM/v2/-1x-1.png)

China's evolving trade picture, in 4 charts ~ 7 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/07/china-economy-news-export-share-rises-but-rising-costs-pose-challenge-imf-says.html

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/09/06/China%20export%20share.jpg)

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/09/06/China%20trade%20surplus.jpg)

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/09/06/China%20ULC.jpg)

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2016/09/06/China%20VA.jpg)

Global trade has actually been shrinking since the start of 2015 ~ 1 Aug 2016
http://www.scdigest.com/ontarget/16-08-01-1.php?cid=11043

(http://www.scdigest.com/images/Global_Trade_Plateau.gif)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 15, 2016, 04:30:28 PM
Singapore central banker Ravi Menon says monetary policy is overrated ~ 15 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/15/singapore-central-banker-ravi-menon-says-monetary-policy-is-overrated.html

Unemployment in Singapore rises, more workers made redundant in Q2 ~ 15 Sep 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/unemployment-in-singapore-rises-more-workers-made-redundant-in/3128434.html

(http://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/3063748/1471841443000/large16x9/768/432/raffles-place-crowd.jpg)

Singapore market getting bad to worse, says Credit Suisse

By Benjamin Cher
September 14, 2016 : 12:04 PM MYT   

The Singapore market is going from bad to worse in terms of corporate profitability and economic growth according to a report by Credit Suisse published on Sept 9.

A combination of regulatory changes and intensifying economic structural problems have led lead analyst Gerald Wong to urge investors to remain cautious on Singapore.

While the economic slowdown in Singapore has been perceived as driven by cyclical headwinds, Wong notes that pro-consumer policy shifts since 2011 has led to a decline in corporate profits.

These include regulatory actions such as the potential introduction of a fourth telco operator, the new rail financing framework as well as cooling measures in the property sector, all of which affect corporate profitability.

However, Wong notes that there are selected cases where both consumers and corporates win, such as the bus-contracting model, where operators only handle the operations and maintenance of the fleet while the government owns all the assets and infrastructure.

“Recent policy announcements continue to reinforce this policy shift, including raising the minimum salary requirement for Employment Pass applications,” says Wong.

In addition, Singapore government policies to increase wages and promote inclusive growth have intensified structural problems. According to Wong, the wage share of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to 43% in 2015, from 39% in 2010.

Wong notes that Singapore’s GDP wage share coincides with the business cycle, rising in the 1980s before the 1985 wage-induced recession. And unless there is a surge in productivity, the gap has to be closed via currency depreciation or weaker employment, warns Wong.

“In our view, the growing divergence between declining corporate profits and rising labour costs is unsustainable,” says Wong.

The Singapore market has been showing initial signs of stress, warns Wong. Investment commitments are moderating, the labour market is sliding close to Global Financial Crisis lows, while competitiveness and share of global export remain on the decline. Retail sales too have been affected, a spillover effect from weaker corporate outlook.

GDP growth is also set to disappoint, dropping to 1.1%, below the consensus projection of 1.9%. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is also expected to ease the exchange rate policy band downward in October as well.

With close to 30% of firms listed on the Singapore Exchange reporting losses in 2Q16, net margins have fallen to 6.7% in 2Q16, close to the 6.3% seen during the Global Financial Crisis low, says Wong.

The MSCI Singapore has also been the worst performing in the non-Japan Asia market, he adds, posting a decline in return of equity to 8.2%, below the lows of 10.2% in 2008-2009.

Despite MSCI Singapore trading at a price to book value of 1.12x, or 6% above the P/B of 1.06x in 2008-2009, Wong does not foresee a broad market recovery as return on equity remains under pressure.

Credit Suisse is cautious on sectors leveraged to domestic growth and valuations not reflecting near-term headwinds such as the banking and telco sectors. Wong has an “underweight” on DBS, StarHub and M1. He is also calling “overweight” on City Developments, SATS and Mapletree Commercial Trust.

As at 11.30am, shares for DBS are trading lower 0.27% at $15.01, StarHub is down 0.59% at $3.38, while M1 is down 0.82% at $2.43 as at 11.30am.

Shares for City Developments are trading 0.9% lower at $8.77, SATS is down 0.21% at $4.80, while Mapletree Commercial Trust flat at $1.57.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 17, 2016, 04:13:06 PM
More bad news for the economy ~ 16 Sep 2016
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/more-bad-news-for-the-economy-201609161204

Rout in emerging-market currencies gets no trader respect ~ 14 Sep 2016
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/rout-in-emerging-market-currencies-gets-no-trader-respect/article31885304/
If the Fed were to signal decisively that the hawkish bias is not there, EM may really have a much more powerful run.

Michael Pento: Gold goes to all-time highs if Fed admits it cannot raise rates ~ 13 Sep 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BhTl4f10t3g

Fed Cavalry charges to market's rescue ~ 12 Sep 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxMk3WZfaN0
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 19, 2016, 09:01:12 AM
Top investors have one theme on their minds: Danger ~ 17 Sep 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/17/delivering-alpha-top-investors-have-danger-on-their-minds.html

Tim Geithner: A 'scary erosion' of policies

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/09/13/103936311-20160913-8205-2234.530x298.jpg)

From Icahn’s lips to Trump’s economic policy plan (at least the first version) ~ 16 Sep 2016
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/from-icahns-lips-to-trumps-economic-policy-plan-at-least-the-first-version/2016/09/16/2dc01672-7b8a-11e6-ac8e-cf8e0dd91dc7_story.html

What Carl Icahn's portfolio tells us about his investment style ~ 16 Sep 2016
http://www.fool.com/investing/2016/09/16/what-carl-icahns-portfolio-tells-us-about-his-inve.aspx

(https://g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/224210/carl-icahn-portfolio_large.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 21, 2016, 09:06:09 AM
Is the global economy headed for a 'worst case' scenario? ~ 20 Sep 2016
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007345-global-economy-headed-worst-case-scenario

Full Hanjin ship can not dock because there's no plan to leave ~ 20 Sep 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-hanjin-shipping-debt-usa-bankruptcy-idUSKCN11Q2TA

(http://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20160920&t=2&i=1154311570&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=780&pl=468&sq=&r=LYNXNPEC8J1G3)

Shipping woes ~ 19 Sep 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a7chwgHKoaA

China’s ports hit hard by global trade slowdown ~ 18 Sep 2016
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c6b4e22-7bf1-11e6-ae24-f193b105145e.html

(http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/c6cd4cd6-7a59-11e6-b837-eb4b4333ee43.img)

(http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/fdee881a-7a59-11e6-b837-eb4b4333ee43.img)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 21, 2016, 09:38:21 AM
Shorten to meet Arrium workers ~ 21 Sep 2016
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/09/21/07/05/shorten-to-meet-arrium-workers

Arrium steelworks' instability 'putting youth at risk of homelessness' ~ 19 Sep 2016
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/arrium-instability-put-whyalla-youth-risk-drugs-homelessness/7857192

GIC keeping close tabs on cash-strapped Arrium ~ 26 Aug 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/gic-keeping-close-tabs-on-cash-strapped-arrium
GIC holds around 8.21% of Arrium.

Bill Shorten visits Arrium's Whyalla Steelworks to announce support package ~ 16 Jun 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwr1T4sP228

Arrium's demise blamed on management failures ~ 7 Apr 2016
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-06/arrium-demise-blamed-on-management-failures/7304682

High debt, falling commodities & oversupply of steel lead Arrium into administration ~ 7 Apr 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDorSClFNqc
8,100 jobs are at risk across Australia as Arrium steelmaker goes into administration. Immediate threat is to 3,000 workers in Whyalla, South Australia.

Arrium enters voluntary administration, Grant Thornton appointed ~ 7 Apr 2016
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-07/arrium-enters-voluntary-administration/7306340

Arrium shares suspended from ASX trading ~ 7 Apr 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/business/arrium-shares-suspended-from-asx-trading-20160405-gnzbne.html

Who on earth is buying Arrium shares at this price? ~ 10 Dec 2015
http://www.fool.com.au/2015/12/10/who-on-earth-is-buying-arrium-shares-at-this-price/
Arrium saw its share price rise 11.3% to 6.9 cents today, after iron ore stage a brief rise.

(http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/n/y/z/1/9/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gnzbne.png/1460003053962.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 22, 2016, 08:12:37 AM
Malaysian energy firm Petronas plans several hundred more job cuts ~ 20 Sep 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/malaysian-energy-firm-petronas-plans-several-hundred-more-job-cuts-1474373847
Petronas, struggling to deal with lower oil prices, earlier this year unveiled 1,000 job cuts

(http://img2.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22876/22876192b7d6cba9624d29f5ed0b4e4ac3571c7b.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 22, 2016, 11:25:43 AM
Singapore private home prices feared to plummet by up to 15%

20 Sep 2016

Blame it on supply glut.

Singapore's property sector will remain on the rocks as looming oversupply will continue to put downward pressure on private home prices.

According to a report by OCBC Investment Research, physical oversupply remains a key headwind until 2017.

"Given that the market remains in a state of physical oversupply over 2016-17, we continue to forecast for private home prices to grind 5- 15% lower over this period and also expect pressures on rental rates to persist," the report stated.

OCBC added that property sales in August were at a disappointing 7.8% decline from the record last year.

Meanwhile, OCBC also noted that authorities have already clarified that the recent tweaks of refinancing rules under the Total Debt Servicing Ratio rules should not be construed as an easing of property curbs.

"...the recent TSDR tweaks give existing borrowers more flexibility in managing their debt obligations at lower rates and and would add a measure of stability in the balance sheets of existing borrowers – which is overall positive for the housing market and the banks’ balance sheets," OCBC explained.

Older Singaporeans to double by 2030

22 Aug 2016

If you could travel 15 years into the future, our citizen population will look very different. Chances are you’ll see more older people around you. That is because by 2030, one in four Singaporeans will be aged 65 years and above.

This demographic change has come about quickly. There were 270,000 Singaporeans aged 65 and above in 2005. Just ten years later, that number has grown to 440,000. This fast pace of ageing is due to the large cohorts of post-war baby boomers getting older. The first cohort of baby boomers turned 65 in 2012.

Advancements in healthcare and medical technologies have also increased Singapore’s life expectancy.  50 years ago, a 65-year-old person could expect to live approximately eight years more. Today, a person who is 65 can expect to live another 20 years on average.

By 2030, the number of Singaporeans aged 65 and above is projected to double to 900,000. That means 1 in 4 Singaporeans will be in that age group, up from 1 in 8 today.

(http://img2.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22876/2287658245ee822fcc766d89475b5e4a1ef5235a.png)

We are not alone. Other developed nations are also experiencing a similar rise in their older population. But from the graph below, the slope of Singapore’s line is steeper than that of most other countries. This means our population is ageing at a fast pace.

(http://img3.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22876/228765939de35a28198fafb4410b35bf8b9d37f9.png)

Besides the higher number of older people in our population, another reason for the pace of ageing is our low total fertility rate (TFR). The lower the TFR, the smaller the younger population, hence the faster the rate of growth in the proportion of older people. We see this from the chart below – the number of citizens under 25 years old is declining, even as number of citizens in the older age group climbs.

(http://img5.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22876/22876595ad8566d699dcaa835eac44c721ce2fdf.png)

Interestingly, although our society is getting older, we are no less dynamic. Older Singaporeans are now healthier and more active, and are continuing to contribute meaningfully to our economy and society. If we can adapt and transform our society to become more age-friendly and successfully turn it into our strength, the opportunities that come with longevity are tremendous. Learn more about what an ageing population means to us.

Singapore private homes puzzle: Why aren't prices falling proportionately? ~ 5 Aug, 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/private-homes-puzzle-why/3014552.html
It had been relatively easier to clear previous housing gluts in the 2000s, partly because Singapore’s population boomed as the country opened up to immigration and foreign investment, via tourism and financial services. Today, we face limits in opening our markets any further.

The key factor in Singapore's residential property prices: Foreign workforce growth rate

Singapore foreign workforce numbers as at Jun 2016

(http://img8.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22876/22876788eb74a77d8d1504708606bcf41a410831.png)

Singapore foreign workforce numbers as at Jun 2015

(http://img5.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/21629/21629665a59e066c8596cd81c83c9ed5a0abf7c9.png)

Singapore needs 900,000 foreign workers to stay competitive: Lee Kuan Yew ~ 24 Apr 2011
http://www.philstar.com/breaking-news/678754/singapore-needs-foreign-workers-stay-competitive-lee-kuan-yew
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 23, 2016, 07:44:28 AM
The Guardian view on the global economic outlook: dark clouds ahead ~ 21 Sep 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2016/sep/21/global-economy-2017-financial-crisis-developing-economies-oecd-unctad-guardian-view

(http://sherpainsurance.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/dark-clouds-ahead-picmonkey.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 23, 2016, 12:09:40 PM
S’pore business sentiment crumbles amid domestic, global concerns ~ 22 Sep 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/business/spore-business-sentiment-crumbles-amid-domestic-global-concerns

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image_lightbox/public/photos/43_images/27492284.JPG)

Singapore primed for large-scale Zika virus outbreak ~ 22 Sep 2016
http://www.contagionlive.com/news/singapore-primed-for-largescale-zika-virus-outbreak

Can Singapore handle Zika? ~ 11 Sep 2016
http://www.aseantoday.com/2016/09/can-singapore-handle-zika/

(http://www.aseantoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/14951771097_5cbd3f1864_k-777x437.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 23, 2016, 02:24:20 PM
Which ASEAN country owe the most debt to foreign governments? ~ 20 Sep 2016
http://malaysiandigest.com/features/632661-which-asean-country-owe-the-most-debt-to-foreign-governments.html
We don't have to look very far. Our neighbour down south has been included among the 20 most indebted nations worldwide. The island nation's total external debt amounts to US$1.76 trillion (RM73.43 trillion). An earlier report in accounting news portal CFCInnovation had also identified Singapore with the highest corporate debt-to-GDP ratio in the ASEAN region.

(http://328744392.r.worldcdn.net/images/stories/new3/carol/aug/singapore1.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 23, 2016, 02:54:13 PM
Malaysia: This is what public housing looks like ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/this-is-what-public-housing-looks-like

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/images/sized/ez/CM20160914PPR5_620_413_100.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 24, 2016, 09:11:09 AM
The invisible American ~ 20 Sep 2016
http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/195680/invisible-american.aspx
I've been reading a lot about a "recovering" economy. It was even trumpeted on Page 1 of The New York Times and Financial Times last week. I don't think it's true. The percentage of Americans who say they are in the middle or upper-middle class has fallen 10 percentage points, from a 61% average between 2000 and 2008 to 51% today.

(http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/TCBCMS/fe1uhjobue6bfl_fwteccw.png)

The terrifying signs of a looming housing crisis ~ 20 Sep 2016
http://nypost.com/2016/09/20/more-new-yorkers-apply-for-emergency-grants-to-stay-in-their-homes-report/

(https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/160921-anti-homelessness-programs-nyc-feature1.jpg)

This cycle will end ~ 8 Aug 2016
http://www.investing.com/analysis/this-cycle-will-end-200146752

(http://c3352932.r32.cf0.rackcdn.com/content/picaf673b3c14fabc6c031e4000bfe24993.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 24, 2016, 09:29:12 AM
Avoid Malaysian property, especially Iskandar ~ 12 Aug 2016
http://www.todayonline.com/business/avoid-malaysian-property-especially-iskandar

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image_lightbox/public/photos/43_images/raj_iskandar2_read-only.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 24, 2016, 09:29:56 AM
Push for affordable housing ~ 17 Sep 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/09/17/push-for-affordable-housing/

(http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/09/17/push-for-affordable-housing/~/media/073fc8b32001418fb6d7c383813aa9f4.ashx/?h=465&w=620)

Malaysia: This is what public housing looks like ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/this-is-what-public-housing-looks-like

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/images/sized/ez/CM20160914PPR5_620_413_100.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 25, 2016, 02:13:17 PM
Real estate groups lobby against calls for GTA foreign buyers tax ~ 23 Sep 2016
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/toronto-foreign-buyers-tax-lobby-1.3775779

B.C. data shows massive drop in foreign property buyers after targeted tax ~ 22 Sep 2016
https://www.thestar.com/business/2016/09/22/bc-data-shows-massive-drop-in-foreign-property-buyers-after-targeted-tax.html
But the days prior to the Aug 2 deadline saw a stampede of foreign buyers in Vancouver to avoid paying the 15% tax.

Joe Oliver: We have no choice but to slap a tax on Toronto houses being bought by foreigners ~ 22 Sep 2016
http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/joe-oliver-we-have-no-choice-but-to-slap-a-tax-on-toronto-houses-being-bought-by-foreigners

加拿大楼市调控 第二个致命政策又来了 ~ 16 Sep 2016
http://qijunjie.baijia.baidu.com/article/626179

(http://f.hiphotos.baidu.com/news/w%3D638/sign=679fc87a5f2c11dfded1bc205b266255/f31fbe096b63f6246e26369a8f44ebf81a4ca32b.jpg)

(http://www.forexhit.com/images/basic-elliott-wave-pattern.gif)

Vancouver’s revolting! This is one housing bubble ready to pop ~ 11 Aug 2016
http://economyandmarkets.com/economy/vancouvers-revolting-this-is-one-housing-bubble-ready-to-pop/

(https://dentresearch.s3.amazonaws.com/EconomyandMarkets/images/081115_ENM.gif)

Chinese media warns Canada's housing crash will put U.S. to shame ~ 5 Aug 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/stephen-punwasi/canadian-housing-crash_b_11349292.html

(http://i.huffpost.com/gen/4576688/images/n-VANCOUVER-RAIN-CLOUDS-large570.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: king on September 26, 2016, 07:14:20 AM



Saturday, 24 September 2016
Sell Everything before Market Crash !
Will there be another market crash in 2017 ?

The unlucky 7


Whenever there is year ending with 7 , the stock market will collapse and have crisis.
For example, the name for the 1987 stock market crisis is Black Monday. Interest parity arbitrage trading and currency war fueled the

Asian Crisis in 1997. It involves borrowing a cheap currency with low yields and investing in a stable currency with higher yields to earn spread income, known as positive carry. Hence the name, carry trades.


Concept explained : Currency Carry Trade : by Investopedia

What is a 'Currency Carry Trade'

A currency carry trade is a strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates, which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage used.

 In theory, rates and prices should reach an equilibrium so there is no arbitrage. But this was a special time in financial markets. Japan wanted to manage the yen to promote its export-oriented economy. Other Asian countries with currencies pegged to the dollar had just opened their capital accounts and were attracting foreign investors with higher yields. The money poured in and strained utilization capacity until local authorities interceded in late 1998, and the party ended.





The GFC (Global Financial Crisis ) surfaced first in 2007 with the collapse of the U.S. subprime market. In 2008, it turned into full-scale crisis when Lehman Brothers fell. This time was also a carry-trade, the one involving credit ratings rather than currencies. Banks could buy impaired loans and make them into RMBS with inflated ratings provided by willing rating agencies.

These securities were then refinanced in CDOs. The CDO ratings were based on original ratings on the RMBS-they were not updated with real performance information-so if the rating on an RMBS was inflated, it would flow through to the CDO.


What is RMBS and CDO  ?


What is a 'Residential Mortgage-Backed Security (RMBS)'

Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) are a type of mortgage-backed debt obligation whose cash flows come from residential debt, such as mortgages, home-equity loans and subprime mortgages. A residential mortgage-backed security is comprised of a pool of mortgage loans created by banks and other financial institutions. The cash flows from each of the pooled mortgages is packaged by a special-purpose entity into classes and tranches, which then issues securities and can be purchased by investors.


What is a 'Collateralized Debt Obligation - CDO'

A structured financial product that pools together cash flow-generating assets and repackages this asset pool into discrete tranches that can be sold to investors. A collateralized debt obligation (CDO) is so-called because the pooled assets – such as mortgages, bonds and loans – are essentially debt obligations that serve as collateral for the CDO. The tranches in a CDO vary substantially in their risk profile.

 The senior tranches are relatively safer because they have first priority on the collateral in the event of default. As a result, the senior tranches of a CDO generally have a higher credit rating and offer lower coupon rates than the junior tranches, which offer higher coupon rates to compensate for their higher default risk.



Still don’t believe ? Look at “ Samsung Galaxy Note 7 “ ! which has made the News Headline recently.


Samsung is recalling the Galaxy Note 7 worldwide over battery problem
Samsung, safety regulators officially recall about 1 million Galaxy Note 7 phones


Ok , Ok ,, but then how about iPhone 7 ?


Quoted below from USA Today :

“On Friday, the glass was half-empty. Investors dumped shares on heavy volume after a market research firm in Germany, GfK, reportedly showed soft sales in Europe for iPhone 7. Apple shares (AAPL), which had climbed 6% since the company's Sept. 7 launch event, lost 1.7% to $112.71 and dragged on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. “


Still don’t believe ? Look at below chart on so called "Megaphone Pattern" !






So , what will be the trigger point of crash in 2017 ? Commodity (oil ) crash ? China shadow banking problem ? Geopolitical tensions ( North Korea / Middle East )  or iPhone 7 ? etc ….


Chotto Matte




How about below news and chart from MarketWatch ?

Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists in Jan 2016

In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point.


The result :






In the 10 months since Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Andrew Roberts issued his headline-making call to “sell everything,” most assets have soared.


So, now what ? Will market crash in 2017  or not ?  I think the best answer still the same : “ I don’t know ! “


Cheers !


< Disclaimer : this is not a call to act or sell your stocks , please DYODD prior making any decision and it is nothing to do with Samsung Notes 7 or iPhone 7 if market really crash in 2017 . >





" I Don’t Know the Key to success , but the key to failure is try to please everyone.” By Bill Cosby
Posted by STE at 11:15
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Labels: forecasting, Global Financial Crisis, market crash
10 comments:

Unknown24 September 2016 at 13:04
There will as usual a final great push before all hell come. I think a rally will come first, then come the storm. It is always play out in this manner. I think a final strong rally coming, to trap more people.

Reply
Replies

STE24 September 2016 at 15:25
Hi !
Everything seems random as what Nassim Taleb mentioned in his book " The Black Swan "..
Market could move in any direction. ...hard to predict. .
Cheers!


FFE24 September 2016 at 19:53
Hi STE,

Yes it's true that we can't predict but yet isn't the reason for market crush due to frothy valuations?

The funny thing is that while US market ain't cheap but Singapore's can't be consider expensive.

However when US market tanks, I'm sure our's will too.

Sigh. Our market is such a laggard.

Regards,
FFE



STE24 September 2016 at 20:32
Hi FFR,
Yup ! You are right that Singapore market seems lag behind US and has been so long ,, while US market eg SP 500 is above 1 SD but our STI still below regression line ,,, is also very true that while US stock tank ,, whole world's stock market will follow ,,,regardless of what your valuation level ,,, by that time...cheap will become cheaper !
Cheers !!

Reply

Ali24 September 2016 at 16:37
风水学上,7运过气,现在行8运。8运旺到2023

Reply
Replies

STE24 September 2016 at 18:54
Ali 兄,
风水学高手, 授教,授教。。希望如你所言。。旺到2023 !!
Cheers !!

Reply

RayNg25 September 2016 at 09:15
STE,

Wah! Your blog title eye catching ah!

Base on the blogs reading, some of us have exited the market > 3 years and wait for the crash. But it did not come. The market is up and up instead. Look like the hot air balloon is still full of steam despite QE has stop.

Nevertheless, there are some correction along the uptrend such as EU crisis on 2011 (The PIGS), rumour of interest hike.

So, when is the market crash? No body know. Mr market is irrational and manic-depressive.

Not all will panic and sell during market crash. WB is one of the example and so do some of Value-Investment Fund. Their 'market value' will tank but their 'business value' still intact. They will then take the opportunity to accumulate more on the cheap.

Warren Buffett — 'Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful'. Easy to understand but difficult to apply if we don't have the right mindset and guts.

The crash will definitely come... just that we don't know when. More importantly, we should prepare for the eventuality and react adequately to the opportunity rather than crisis.

Cheer!




Reply
Replies

STE25 September 2016 at 12:41
Hi Ray,
Hahaha :) that's also how media use to create their " news headlines "...must be eye catching n exaggerating! !
Well said! Yah ...Mr. Market is really irrational and manic depressive. .one have to be ready to capitalize the irrationality of the market. .
Cheers!

Reply

Cory25 September 2016 at 17:47
There are no fixed duration. Something will have to trigger. Oil and Gas maybe Singapore thing but can be world wide since middle east got so many mega projects for big companies. Another World level maybe China debt thing which I never got to understand whether is it a mega problem or not. Everyone is an expert here ...

Yes Market is irrational. We need to profit from the sentiments.

Reply
Replies

STE25 September 2016 at 20:06
Hi Cory ,
Yes! As you said ,,, " everyone is an expert here ...." ....until, being proved the other way ... :)
Cheers !!
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 26, 2016, 09:25:01 AM
Melbourne's high-rise nightmares taking a tall toll on residents and investors ~ 25 Sep 2016
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbournes-highrise-nightmares-taking-a-tall-toll-on-residents-and-investors-20160916-gri6l4.html

(http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/q/v/9/l/3/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gri6l4.png/1474762557980.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 26, 2016, 04:09:56 PM
Singapore is only Asian economy to suffer contraction in nominal GDP in Q2: BNP Paribas ~ 26 Sep 2016
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Singapore-is-only-Asian-economy-to-suffer-contract-30296202.html

(http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/sporegdp_0.png)

Singapore 2012 GDP grew 1.2% as recession seen in second half ~ 1 Jan 2013 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-12-30/singapore-price-risks-persist-as-economy-seen-entering-recession

(http://i1127.photobucket.com/albums/l630/zuolun/GDPGrowth2012_zpsd22afa80.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 06, 2016, 03:19:13 PM
Switzerland pressures Malaysia over 1MDB 'Ponzi scheme' ~ 5 Oct 2016
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3823036/Malaysias-1MDB-scandal-involved-Ponzi-scheme-Swiss-prosecutor.html
In January 2016, 1MDB’s debts ballooned from Rm5 billion to Rm50 billion.

Singapore urged to step up policing of financial crime ~ 27 Sep 2016
https://www.ft.com/content/8a2315ca-8483-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5

(http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2016/10/05/article-doc-gu9r2-1nGiCgT06ob1dee826a52e7f3aa7-202_634x469.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 08, 2016, 11:09:43 AM
Recession looms? IMF cuts growth forecasts for major economies ~ 5 Oct 2016
http://www.globalresearch.ca/recession-looms-imf-cuts-growth-forecasts-for-major-economies/5549542

Global debt hits all-time high of $152 trillion as IMF warns of world-wide economic stagnation ~ 5 Oct 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/05/global-debt-hits-all-time-high-of-152-trillion-as-imf-warns-of-w/

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/business/2016/10/05/IMF_global_debt_at_record_high-large_trans++qVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.JPG)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 10, 2016, 03:22:13 PM
Is Southeast Asia really a cesspool of corruption? ~ 10 Oct 2016
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2016/10/is-southeast-asia-cesspool-corruption/

Ringgit likely to trade around 4.10 versus US dollar next week ~ 8 Oct 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/ringgit-likely-to-trade-around-4.10-versus-us-dollar-next-week

[(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/images/sized/ez/money_20151110_ringgit-dollar_620_407_100.jpg)

Sabah corruption – another reason why the ringgit is weak ~ 8 Oct 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/10/08/sabah-corruption-another-reason-why-the-ringgit-is-weak/

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/10/08/02/50/kksgraft5-2.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=925AB634EF5BD6B83D818058DC0A498D50FEC96E)

Actor Leonardo DiCaprio dared to debate Malaysian corruption in London ~ 7 Oct 2016
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2016/10/actor-leonardo-dicaprio-dared-debate-malaysian-corruption-london/
The group went on to say, “As you’ll certainly be aware, Malaysian grand corruption is an issue of major international concern due to the embezzlement and subsequent laundering of at least US$3.5 billion dollars from the Malaysian state fund 1MDB by public officials, their associates and a number of international banks.”

(https://cdn.asiancorrespondent.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/oscar-dicaprio-1-940x557.jpg)

Falcon denies sale talks amid 1MDB probe ~ 6 Oct 2016
http://www.finews.asia/finance/23136-falcon-private-bank-walter-berchtold-sale-denial-khadem-al-qubaisi-tobias-unger

(http://www.finews.asia/images/cache/2405f500f58c3a09b5286d61f387b311_w500_h300_cp.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 10, 2016, 09:18:26 PM
Banks may not have to raise fresh equity capital ~ 10 Oct 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/10/10/banks-may-not-have-to-raise-fresh-equity-capital/
(http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/10/10/banks-may-not-have-to-raise-fresh-equity-capital/~/media/82abe96cd26b4ce1a8498f6c887bfe67.ashx/)

Impact of IFRS 9 implementation likely to be minimal on GCC banks ~ 9 Oct 2016
http://gulfnews.com/business/sectors/banking/impact-of-ifrs-9-implementation-likely-to-be-minimal-on-gcc-banks-1.1909253

IFRS 9 may pose operational challenge for APAC banks ~ 5 Oct 2016
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/IFRS-9-may-pose-operational-challenge-for-APAC-banks/articleshow/54690927.cms

Banks may incur provisions for exposure to Perisai ~ 5 Oct 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/10/05/banks-may-incur-provisions-for-exposure-to-perisai/
Perisai has a total debt of S$420mil (RM1.27bil or US$307mil), inclusive of the S$125mil bonds. Excluding the bond, its borrowings would be at S$295mil (RM888mil or US$216mil). Perisai has a total of eight bankers, namely DBS, OCBC, UOB, Maybank, RHB Bank, AMMB, BNP and Natixis.

RHBBank (1066) ~ Intermediate uptrend is broken, downside bias

RHBBank closed with a doji @ RM4.63 (+0.03, +0.7%) with 1m shares done on 7 Oct 2016.

Immediate support @ RM4.42, immediate resistance @ RM4.70.

(http://img0.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22963/229638502c0b8cce78ceb11bcc97fbd27e32330e.png)

Singapore charges two ex-bankers in Jho Low, 1MDB-linked case ~ 10 Oct 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/singapore-charges-two-ex-bankers-in-jho-low-1mdb-linked-case
  • Yak, Seah face seven charges each from Singapore authorities
  • Two charged Monday in city state are ex-BSI employees
Malaysia banks lag Southeast Asian peers on 1MDB, slow growth ~ 11 Aug 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/malaysia-banks-lag-southeast-asian-peers-1mdb-slow-growth/

(https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/4/Banks-forward-chart.png)

AMBank ~ Hit a new record low as at 5 Oct 2016
When a stock is in a bear-market territory, the last low will be retested and the share price will move much further down, forming a new record low.

(http://img9.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/22963/2296376948bbbf11a36c5cdd68f45e7e0e5df311.gif)

Bank Negara urged to probe Ambank over Najib's account ~ 14 Sep 2016
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/355668

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/BN-PN023_1MDBjp_J_20160822180352.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 11, 2016, 02:16:50 PM
Singapore, Swiss regulators slam Falcon over 1MDB breaches ~ 11 Oct 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-11/singapore-regulator-directs-falcon-bank-to-cease-operations
1MDB: Singapore shuts down Swiss Falcon Bank over Malaysian scandal ~ 11 Oct 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/11/1mdb-singapore-shuts-down-swiss-falcon-bank-over-malaysian-scandal

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/2874703dc4a560e235a95c1988a6e788c90b679f/0_0_3500_2102/master/3500.jpg?w=1920&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=434c2abca56aadac94acaa2da98ab89a)

MAS shuts down Falcon Private Bank in Singapore, slaps fines on DBS and UBS after 1MDB probe ~ 11 Oct 2016
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/banking/mas-shuts-down-falcon-bank-in-singapore-slaps-penalties-on-dbs-and-ubs-after-1mdb

(http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_pictrure_780x520_/public/articles/2016/10/11/hills0004.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 17, 2016, 05:01:48 PM
Irish leaders fear Brexit will bring economic disaster ~ 16 Oct 2016
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/irish-pm-calls-brexit-summit-to-confront-looming-crisis

Government borrowing costs climb long-term as pound falters

Fears sterling could fall further leave investors seeking cover for perceived risk of UK investments

By Chris Giles
October 15, 2016

The British government’s cost of borrowing rose to its highest level since the EU referendum on Friday as investors sought greater protection against the perceived risks of investments in the UK.

The increased premium Britain is paying for international finance has resulted from fears that sterling could fall further, having already declined 16 per cent against the currencies of the UK’s main trading partners since the referendum, hitting at least a 168-year low on Wednesday.

It also reflected heightened political risks in a week when consumers were confronted by the looming threat of price rises by the spat between Unilever and Tesco over the pricing of Marmite and other foods and personal care products.

As imports have already become more expensive, household budgets will become squeezed over coming months. Speaking on Friday about the impact on poorer families, Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, said: “It’s going to get difficult.”

In August, the BoE said it expected inflation to rise from the current level of 0.6 per cent to 2.4 per cent over the next two years and it is set to revise those estimates higher following sterling’s recent plunge, hitting households in the pocket as few expect wages simply to follow prices higher.

Without assuming any further falls in sterling and using a more conservative estimate of how much retailers will pass higher import prices on to consumers, Capital Economics now expects inflation to hit 3.2 per cent by 2018.

Noting that Mr Carney had said he would tolerate inflation rising “a bit” above the bank’s target, Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economics said the BoE was likely to do so “to support the economy in the short run in order to meet the target in the medium term once the exchange rate effects fade out”.

But while the central bank is not yet reacting to sterling’s fall and probable rises in inflation, investors are seeking greater protection. The government’s cost of longer-term borrowing rose sharply on Friday to 1.097 per cent, up 8 basis points on the data and its highest level since the referendum.

Ten-year yields on UK government bonds have more than doubled since August, when they were 0.5 per cent, reflecting a demand for greater returns from the UK that has not been reflected in other countries borrowing costs. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield stood at 0.05 per cent, which was only marginally higher than it was in August.

The rise in market interest rates on government debt will remove one of the silver linings to the clouds hanging over the public finances, adding to the difficulties facing chancellor Philip Hammond. He has to craft a new budgetary policy that gives him more room for manoeuvre while also maintaining Britain’s ability to borrow cheaply.

Mr Carney’s comments helped shore up sterling on Friday as he said he was “not indifferent” to the exchange rate when looking at setting interest rates, but he indicated the BoE was still minded to tolerate an inflation overshoot caused by the latest sterling weakness.

Economists are split on whether the BoE is likely to cut interest rates further at its November meeting, with most expecting the central bank will keep official interest rates at the historic low of 0.25 per cent rather than reducing them further as it had signalled in August.

What does a weaker pound mean? ~ 11 Oct 2016
http://singaporedaily.net/2016/10/11/qa-lift-weaker-pound-mean/

(http://singaporedaily.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/brexit_disaster_for_uk.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 23, 2016, 12:42:29 PM
Opposition walks out as Malaysia’s Najib presents budget ~ 21 Oct 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/opposition-walks-out-as-malaysias-najib-presents-budget-1477063489

Bloated Malaysia civil service presents headache for Najib ~ 11 Aug 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-10/jobs-for-life-malaysians-hard-to-budge-as-najib-eyes-voter-risk
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ikyVM8dtW2vk/v2/-1x-1.png)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iCoGaftsfsmU/v2/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 23, 2016, 04:52:56 PM
Inside James Packer's Crown China nightmare ~ 21 Oct 2016
http://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/crown-head-here-20161019-gs659t

(http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/s/8/3/t/i/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1477035493699.png)

The initial carnage of the arrests has given way to a different sort of damage – the $1.6 billion implosion in Crown Resorts share market value. By Thursday afternoon its founder and largest shareholder, James Packer's wallet had taken an $800 million hit.

(http://img0.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/23033/23033160672be8f0842899814aab78d7eaf05004.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 02, 2016, 08:19:44 AM
No big restructuring: Korean government decides to maintain ‘Big 3’ structure in shipbuilding industry ~ 1 Nov 2016
http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/industry/16346-no-big-restructuring-korean-government-decides-maintain-%E2%80%98big-3%E2%80%99-structure

(http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/sites/default/files/field/image/9_7.jpg)

Korea: Shipyards to close down 23% of docks ~ 31 Oct 2016
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2016/10/488_217207.html

After 20,000 job cuts, world’s top shipyards brace for more ~ 26 Oct 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-25/after-20-000-job-cuts-world-s-biggest-shipyards-brace-for-more
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/if95bZYwCnZk/v2/-1x-1.png)

Is global banks’ exposure to global shipping being neglected by markets? ~ 29 Oct 2016
http://intpolicydigest.org/2016/10/29/global-banks-exposure-global-shipping-neglected-markets/

(http://intpolicydigest.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/1584073037098.jpg)

Korea: Perfect storm on the horizon ~ 14 Oct 2016
http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=3024877

Bad loans to shipping: That sinking feeling ~ 3 Sep 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21706335-banks-continue-count-cost-shippings-troubles-sinking-feeling
Banks continue to count the cost of shipping’s troubles

Korean banks hit hard by shipbuilding woes ~ 17 Jun 2016
http://shipsandports.com.ng/korean-banks-hit-hard-by-shipbuilding-woes/

Sinking feeling for Korean banks ~ 15 Jun 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-06-15/korean-banks-holed-below-the-waterline-by-shipping-debt

Korean banks set to suffer from exposure to troubled shipbuilders ~ 25 May 2016
http://www.asianews.network/content/korean-banks-set-suffer-exposure-troubled-shipbuilders-17910

(https://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20160903_FNP002_0.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 03, 2016, 06:19:22 PM
Najib, why award RM55b ERCL project to ‘barred’ China company? – DAP  ~ 3 Nov 2016
http://www.themalaysiantimes.com.my/najib-why-award-rm55b-ercl-project-to-barred-china-company-dap/

DAP’s Pua demands Najib explain RM55b ECRL award to Chinese company

By Surin Murugiah
November 2, 2016

 The DAP’s Tony Pua has questioned the reason for the increase in cost for the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) to RM55 billion from the initial RM30 billion.

He has also demanded that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak explain the absence of transparency and accountability in awarding the RM55 billion East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) project to a Chinese company.

In a statement today, Pua, who is DAP national publicity secretary and MP for Petaling Jaya Utara pointed out that the Treasury-General Tan Sri Dr Irwan Serigar Abdullah had informed the media two days ago that Malaysia and China will sign the Framework Financing Agreement and Engineering, Procurement, Construction (EPC) Contract for the project yesterday.

“Dr Irwan spoke to Malaysian media upon arrival in Beijing on Monday, as part of the delegation accompanying Prime Minister Najib Razak who is on a six-day visit to the Chinese capital,” he said.

Pua added that Irwan had said the railway link will lower transportation costs between the west and east coasts of peninsular Malaysia, bring down prices of goods and reduce travelling time.

"It will also help create more jobs and business opportunities for Malaysians, especially the rural folks," he quoted Dr Irwan as saying.

Pua said he was not disputing or objecting to the ECRL project or its benefits to the nation.

“Malaysians are stunned that such a mega-project is being awarded without any form of transparency and competitive tender, to ensure that we receive the best value for money.

“Worse, the project was originally touted to cost RM30 billion, as opposed to a monstrous RM55 billion as announced in the Finance Minister’s budget speech,” he said.

Pua said that as a measure of comparison, the 329km Ipoh-Padang Besar double-tracking project was awarded to MMC-Gamuda consortium for RM14.5 billion in 2003.

“More recently in December 2015, the 179km Gemas-Johor Bahru link was awarded to China Railway Engineering Corporation for the sum of RM7.1 billion. On average, the railway projects cost RM44.0 million and RM39.8 million per kilometre, respectively.

“However, at the cost of RM55 billion, the 600km ECRL will cost a monstrous RM91.7 billion per kilometre to construct.

“That would mean that the ECRL will cost 108% and 130% more than northern and southern double-tracking projects, respectively!” he said.

Pua added that Dr Irwan tried to pre-empt questions on the project by claiming that the financing offered by China was a lower rate, compared with the international market, coupled with a long repayment period of 20 years.

“A favourable financing rate is not a justifiable excuse not to carry out a proper tender exercise.

“Based on the above information we have, a financing rate that is say, 2% lower than other parties, would never justify a 130% increase in the cost of the project!” he said.

Pua said the real fear was that the real reason why the ECRL project is awarded to China at grossly inflated prices, is to hide future illegal money flows from the opaque Chinese companies to 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) creditors such as International Petroleum Investment Corporation (IPIC), to rescue the state-owned fund.

IPIC, in this case, is suing 1MDB for a massive US$6.5 billion, he said.

“As exposed by the Sarawak Report earlier in July, we fear that the “excess” from the inflated Chinese contract will be siphoned in a pre-arranged but illegal manner, to bailout 1MDB,” he concluded.

Malaysia's PM hopes to improve his image with China trip ~ 1 Nov 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/11/01/world/asia/ap-as-china-malaysia.html

Boosting bilateral ties with China ~ 1 Nov 2016
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/11/184897/boosting-bilateral-ties-china

(http://assets.nst.com.my/images/articles/011116ED01pix1.transformed.jpg)

Malaysia and China to sign off on East Coast rail deal, says Irwan Serigar ~ 31 Oct 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/malaysia-and-china-to-sign-off-on-east-coast-rail-deal-says-irwan

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/images/sized/ez/tech131107mohd-irwan-serigar-abdullah_620_481_100.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: king on November 03, 2016, 08:32:48 PM



Home
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>Blacklisted Chinese bridge building company has history…
Blacklisted Chinese bridge building company has history of backhander deals
Malta IndependentMonday, 21 July 2014, 11:00Last update: about 3 years ago
The blacklisted state-owned China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) that gifted Malta a ‘free’ €4 million feasibility study on building a bridge between Malta and Gozo has a history of greasing the palms of officials in third world countries.

Government-to-government deals are not subject to EU rules on public procurement which means they escape scrutiny. CCCC has a habit of throwing in deal sweeteners, promising finance and then strong-arming governments to win more contracts.

Just last week, two Tanzanian officials were charged with fraudulently awarding a bloated contract worth more than $523 million to CCCC to expand the capital city Dar es Salaam’s main port. The project was abandoned when officials queried the inflated costs of the project, which were double those of similar projects.

Earlier this year, a Kenyan MP said “shadowy forces” were behind the awarding of a contract to CCCC for the building of a railroad. CCCC carried out a ‘free’ feasibility study on the project, whose cost have been steadily inflating.

Western companies often find it difficult to compete for contracts with their Chinese counterparts due to their penchant for bribing foreign officials.



During his recent visit to China, Prime Minister Joseph Muscat met the president of the blacklisted company in order to discuss progress on the bridge feasibility study.  The project has been criticised all round for its environmental impact and the fact that the government is dealing with a blacklisted company.

Dr Muscat instructed the company to give more attention to the environmental impact of the project rather than merely assessing its technical feasibility. A subsidiary of the same company will likely also be responsible for the building of a breakwater between Valletta and Sliema.

Dr Muscat has said that CCCC will be involved in “other projects,” which could very well include dredging Marsaxlokk harbour and supplying an LNG tanker. Such projects are in CCCC’s line of business through its subsidiary, China Harbour Engineering. In 2010, the youngest son of a former Bangladesh prime minister was jailed for accepting bribes from the company for the Bangladesh Chittagong Port project.



Blacklisting
CCCC is blacklisted by the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and it's on at least two blacklists in the US because of its Iran-Armenia railway project. The company is set to remain on the World Bank’s blacklist until 12 January, 2017: in the meantime, it is ineligible to engage in any road or bridge projects financed by the World Bank Group

 

China’s humpty-dumpty bridges
In a five year period between 2007 and 2012, China experienced at least 18 bridge collapses resulting in 135 deaths according to the news agency Bloomberg. China has rapidly expanded its road and rail infrastructure to keep up with its booming economy, but critics say that safety has sometimes been overlooked in the rush to develop.


In 2012, one of the longest bridges in Northern China collapsed nine months after it was built. The New York Times reports that many in China have attributed the recent spate of bridge collapses to corruption, and online reaction to the latest collapse was scathing.

“Corrupt officials who do not die just continue to cause disaster after disaster,” said one post on Sina Weibo, a Chinese microblogging service similar to Twitter.



Another Internet user expressed hope “that the government will put heavy emphasis on this and investigate to find out the real truth, and give both the dead and the living some justice!” A third user was more laconic, remarking, “Tofu engineering work leads to a tofu bridge.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 04, 2016, 09:49:44 AM
How World War III could start (Think Syria, the Baltics or the South China Sea) ~ 3 Nov 2016
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-world-war-iii-could-start-18276

(http://nationalinterest.org/files/styles/main_image_on_posts/public/main_images/castle_bravo_blast-2_1.jpg?itok=941ud96Q)

Malaysia to purchase four navy ships from China in landmark deal ~ 2 Nov 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/malaysia-to-purchase-*-deal
大马向中国买4艘滨海任务舰 ~ 1 Nov 2016
http://news.seehua.com/?p=221745

(http://news.seehua.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/dgnfhm_700_444_c1.jpg)

China says US sail-by could spark war ~ 29 Oct 2016
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/10/29/china-us-islands-admirals-meet.html

Japan and China’s maritime tensions in the South China Sea are resurfacing World War II-era wounds ~ 22 Sep 2016
http://qz.com/780317/japan-and-china-are-ramping-up-maritime-tensions-in-the-south-china-sea-and-east-china-sea/

Should we be concerned about the East China Sea dispute? ~ 6 Sep 2016
http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/should-we-be-concerned-about-the-east-china-sea-dispute/news-story/b6313eaaa407927b9969525d530e9feb

(http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b2e533d7a27e043f4304d6791cb6b7f6)

South China Sea War: China finds stronger enemy in Malaysia ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.morningnewsusa.com/south-china-sea-war-china-finds-stronger-enemy-malaysia-2380859.html

Game on for China, U.S. ahead of South China Sea ruling ~ 2 Jun 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-01/south-china-sea-state-of-play-china-and-u-s-gear-up-for-ruling

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i3qdajv7DyJs/v3/-1x-1.jpg)

As Beijing flexes muscles in South China Sea, Malaysia eyes harder response ~ 1 Jun 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-malaysia-idUSKCN0YM2SV

(http://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20160601&t=2&i=1139498088&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=LYNXNPEC4U1E5)

South China Sea War: Tensions high as court ruling looms ~ 31 May 2016
http://www.morningnewsusa.com/south-china-sea-war-tensions-high-court-ruling-looms-2380312.html

(http://www.morningnewsusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/8096712484_acd6ac2db7_k-728x420.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 05, 2016, 06:46:53 PM
The South China Sea: Duterte waters ~ 5 Nov 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21709592-filipino-fishermen-return-waters-disputed-china-duterte-waters

(http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/full-width/images/print-edition/20161105_ASP004_0.jpg)

President Joko Widodo affirms sovereignty of Indonesia in South China Sea dispute ~ 5 Nov 2016
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/president-joko-widodo-affirms-sovereignty-indonesia-south-china-sea-dispute-1589994

(https://d.ibtimes.co.uk/en/full/1564658/joko-widodo-julie-bishop.jpg)

Najib asks West to stop 'lecturing' as Malaysia embraces China ~ 2 Nov 2016
http://in.reuters.com/article/china-malaysia-idINL4N1D31LQ

On Duterte’s heels, Malaysia is the next Asian country to embrace China ~ 31 Oct 2016
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/domino-theory-or-hedging-after-the-philippines-now-malaysia-embraces-china/2016/10/31/d30984ea-9f63-11e6-b74c-603fd6bbc17f_story.html

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/10/31/Foreign/Images/616045220-4229.jpg?uuid=wksOdp9tEeaIMiOgB8d7tA)

US must make right choice in South China Sea ~ 31 Oct 2016
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2016-10/31/content_27221414.htm

(http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/attachement/jpg/site1/20161031/b083fe955fbe1980d30d0e.jpg)

Duterte's visit has ushered in a new era ~ 27 Oct 2016
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2016-10/27/content_27185902.htm

(http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/attachement/jpg/site1/20161027/b083fe955fbe197b817606.jpg)

US Navy destroyer conducts operation in South China Sea ~ 22 Oct 2016
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/10/22/us-navy-destroyer-conducts-operation-in-south-china-sea.html

(http://a57.foxnews.com/images.foxnews.com/content/fox-news/world/2016/10/22/us-navy-destroyer-conducts-operation-in-south-china-sea/_jcr_content/par/featured-media/media-0.img.jpg/876/493/1477097473741.jpg?ve=1&tl=1)

China urges Australia to be 'cautious' on South China Sea ~ 13 Oct 2016
http://e.vnexpress.net/news/world/china-urges-australia-to-be-cautious-on-south-china-sea-3482808.html

Beijing and Moscow launch South China Sea naval drills ~ 12 Sep 2016
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/beijing-moscow-launch-south-china-sea-naval-drills-160912132517636.html

(http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2016/9/12/bbedd37a5db447208847a373d8b7072c_18.jpg)

The hidden costs of China’s lifeline in the 1MDB scandal

By Sheridan Mahareva
16 August 2016

(http://cdn4.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/980x551/public/images/methode/2016/08/16/aafeccd8-6379-11e6-aefa-e8609c477948_1280x720.jpg)

With Malaysia facing long-term repercussions for embracing Chinese money, experts warn prime minister is turning a personal scandal into a national problem

By spending about RM16 billion ringgit (US$4 billion) on troubled Malaysian state investor 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), China has bought a lot of clout in the corridors of power in this Southeast Asian nation.

Last month’s civil suit by U.S. authorities against personalities tied to 1MDB and their assets comes as local leaders worry the global financial scandal will have a deeper impact.

It is not just a question of whether Malaysia’s Prime Minister Najib Razak will serve out his term, or whether 1MDB’s mammoth debts will be fully repaid.

It is also now the country’s shrinking ability to chart independent domestic and foreign policy, because of the expensive deals — overt and covert — that will have to be made to resolve the scandal.

Some 1MDB critics also claim it is no coincidence the suit by the U.S.’ Department of Justice comes at a time of growing Chinese influence in Najib’s administration.

They point to the backdrop of the South China Sea disputes, where Malaysia and other Association of Southeast Asian (Asean) countries are locked in overlapping territorial claims with Beijing, and where the United States wants to maintain its dominance.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets and property in November and December to two separate Chinese firms last year was part of the company’s push to raise money to pay the company’s debts.

1MDB, which is Najib’s brain child and whose advisory board he heads, racked up RM42 billion in debts within five years of operation. A former prime minister, Dr Mahathir Mohamad, described 1MDB as the country’s single largest financial scandal and has been campaigning for Najib to resign.

Although Najib has repeatedly denied wrongdoing, the U.S. civil suit pointedly states that US$3.5 billion was “stolen from 1MDB” by its officials and their associates. Of that amount, about US$1 billion was laundered through the US and used to buy lavish properties, expensive paintings and pay gambling expenses in the U.S.

China’s purchases of 1MDB assets had helped reduce its debts to RM40.4 billion, Najib said in his 2016 New Year’s Day address. But at least one deal was controversial.

The sale of 1MDB’s power assets to China General Nuclear Power Corp would have breached the limit of foreign ownership rules for local electricity companies.

1MDB critic and opposition law maker Rafizi Ramli had campaigned unsuccessfully to block the sale, claiming that it would threaten local jobs in the energy sector.

“Allowing a foreign company to fully control electricity production operations for a major national power producer has great risk.

“Electricity supply could be disrupted if there are future problems and the increase in tariffs would be based on the interests of these foreign companies,” Rafizi said last November.

Another parliamentarian, Wong Chen, said in the end the cabinet allowed an exemption to the foreign equity rules so that the deal could go through.

The government had made an exception, because it was desperate to bring in money to pay 1MDB’s debts, Wong said.

“There will be long-term geopolitical repercussions for Malaysia, because of this intense interest in embracing Chinese money,” Wong told This Week in Asia.

The trend of favouring mainland companies over others in large infrastructure projects in the future was likely to continue, said another parliamentarian, Charles Santiago.

The RM50 billion Singapore-Kuala Lumpur High Speed Rail project is another venture that could involve either expertise or money from China, he said.

“The Najib administration had also floated the idea of a nuclear power plant and this too could involve money from China.”

In Sarawak, a region that straddles the island of Borneo in East Malaysia, China’s pull in Malaysia is already affecting the incomes of local fishermen.

Reports from late last year claimed that Sarawakian fishermen — like their counterparts in Indonesia and the Philippines — had been chased away from their traditional fishing grounds in the Luconia Shoals by armed Chinese vessels.

In March, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Authority (MMEA) had reportedly spotted a fleet of Chinese trawlers fishing in the area.

Malaysia claims the shoals as being in its waters. But unlike Indonesia and the Philippines, it has yet to confront or capture Chinese fishing boats that poach in the area, despite vowing to do so.

Malaysia’s low key approach could be due to both China’s help with 1MDB and the country’s history with the superpower, said Dr Tang Siew Mun, a senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.

“Malaysia was the first Asean state to normalise relations with Beijing [in the 1960s] and it was the current prime minister’s father who paved the way for the renewed bilateral relations,” Tang said.

“Malaysia’s growing dependence on China for not only trade but investment, too, has had a direct impact on its response to the South China Sea disputes.”

In June, Malaysia unilaterally released what was supposed to be a joint-Asean statement on disputes in the South China sea, after an Asean meeting with China in Kunming (??). However, the statement was retracted hours later, raising eyebrows all-round as to why Malaysia did it — to force Asean’s hand or to show China up.

Tang of ISEAS believes China is likely to continue to deploy large-scale fishing fleets to affirm its claims over the sea. This could trigger more friction between the maritime forces and fishing fleets of Malaysia and China.

“This puts pressure on Malaysia to respond to these Chinese intrusions, pitting its political-economic [interests] against strategic interests,” said Tang.

In the end, said lawmaker Santiago, “Najib has succeeded in turning his personal scandal into a national problem”.

Sheridan Mahareva is a Kuala Lumpur-based journalist.

In a threat to China, Malaysia vows to sink illegal fishing boats in the South China Sea ~ 2 Aug 2016
http://qz.com/748070/malaysia-will-sink-foreign-boats-that-fish-illegally-and-use-them-as-artificial-reefs/

How exactly Malaysia plans to sink illegal boats was not specified. China wants to become a major maritime power and claims nearly the entire South China Sea as its own, based on a “nine-dash line” drawn on a 1940s map. A ruling last month invalidated the claim under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), but Beijing has vowed to ignore it and has belittled the tribunal behind it.

(https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/spratly-paracel-scarborough-v3.png)

In the case of Malaysia, that means it can expect a Chinese presence in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extending from its portion of northern Borneo, also known as East Malaysia. Under UNCLOS, Malaysia should have sole extraction rights to all the natural resources extending 200 nautical miles from the coastal baseline.

(https://qzprod.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/9_dotted_line-e1470271833805.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 06, 2016, 02:23:35 PM
The China X factor in Malaysia’s future ~ 4 Nov 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/opinion/2016/11/04/the-china-x-factor-in-malaysias-future/

(http://s3media.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/malaysia-china.jpg)

Malaysian exports shrink in September as crude, gas shipments slump

November 4, 2016

Malaysia's exports contracted at a wider-than-expected rate in September, official data released Friday showed, hurt primarily by a sharp decline in crude oil and natural gas shipments.

Exports totalled 68.03 billion ringgit ($16.21 billion) in September, 3.0% lower than the 70.15 billion ringgit recorded in the same month last year, the Statistics Department said in a statement. That compares to the median 2.0% drop predicted by economists and August's 1.5% year-on-year growth. On a month-on-month basis, exports increased 0.7% from 67.6 billion ringgit.

Economists said the contraction in Malaysia's September shipments was in line with shrinkages posted by major regional exporters such as China, Japan and Taiwan during the same month.

"Exports usually see a month-on-month pick up in October ahead of a seasonal decline in November before rising again in December," said Julia Goh, an economist with United Overseas Bank. But this year's fourth-quarter exports may be impacted by "cautious demand" due to near-term risk events, she added.

Exports of crude petroleum and liquefied natural gas plummeted 27% and 20% respectively in September. However, electrical and electronics shipments, which account for more than a third of Malaysia's total exports, grew 0.3% year-on-year during the month.

In terms of markets, exports to Japan and the European Union fell 12% and 8.4%, respectively, while shipments to the United States rose 5%. Exports to China, Malaysia's biggest trading partner, slipped 1%.

Total imports meanwhile decreased 0.1% to 60.47 billion ringgit in September from 60.50 billion ringgit a year earlier, primarily driven by a 5.6% drop in the inflow of capital goods and a 4.8% slide in consumption goods.

However, imports rose 2.4% from 59.1 billion ringgit when compared to August.

Malaysia's trade surplus narrowed to 7.56 billion ringgit in September from 8.51 billion ringgit in August.

"The global economy is beginning to show some signs of a recovery with the global merchandise trade activity bouncing back into a growth following 22 consecutive months of contraction," said RHB Research Institute. Malaysia's exports growth will probably accelerate to 2.3% next year from 1.6% in 2016, the house said.

Malaysia has been relying largely on domestic demand to support an economy projected to grow between 4.0% and 4.5% this year. In 2017, Southeast Asia's third-largest economy will probably grow between 4.0% and 5.0%, according to government forecasts.

BNM has RM410 billion in usable reserve assets

31 Oct 2016

Reserves more than enough to sustain 8.5 months of retained imports, says Bank Negara.

Malaysia has usable reserve assets worth USD97.67 billion (RM410 billion) and foreign currency assets worth USD616.2 million as at end-September 2016, according to Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

The reserves will be more than sufficient to finance 8.5 months of retained imports.
BNM said for the next 12 months, the pre-determined short-term outflows of foreign currency loans arising from scheduled repayment of external borrowings by the government would amount to USD242.3 million.

In line with the practice adopted since April 2006, the data exclude projected foreign currency inflows arising from interest income and the drawdown of project loans amounting to USD2.36 billion in the next 12 months, says a report in The Sun.
“The only contingent short-term net drain on foreign currency assets are government guarantees of foreign debt due within one year, amounting to USD80.6 million.

“There are no foreign currency loans with embedded options, no undrawn, unconditional credit lines provided by or to other central banks, international organisations, banks and other financial institutions. BNM also does not engage in foreign currency options vis-a-vis ringgit,” said BNM.

Amundi sees continued upside in EM debt ~ 3 Nov 2016
http://www.asianinvestor.net/News/431101,amundi-sees-continued-upside-in-em-debt.aspx

Increased foreign interest in Malaysian bonds ~ 30 Oct 2016
https://www.oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/increased-foreign-interest-malaysian-bonds

Economic Report 2016/17: Higher federal govt debt on development expenditure financing ~ 21 Oct 2016
http://www.thesundaily.my/news/2011097

Malaysia's external debt to GDP ratio higher than others in region at 66%: Moody's ~ 21 Jul 2016
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/07/159852/malaysias-external-debt-gdp-ratio-higher-others-region-66pct-moodys

Fake debt and investable bank credit… ~ 6 Nov 2016
http://guardian.ng/opinion/fake-debt-and-investable-bank-credit/

(http://cdn.guardian.ng/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Debt.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 19, 2016, 04:52:30 PM
Malaysia's 1MDB scandal: Nothing to see here ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21710280-billions-are-stolen-only-whistle-blower-goes-jail-nothing-see-here

(http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/nothing_to_see_here_naked_gun.gif)

Bersih 5: Malaysia protests – LIVE ~ 19 Nov 2016
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2016/11/bersih5-liveblog/

(https://cdn.asiancorrespondent.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/yellow-tide-at-masjid-jamek-940x580.jpg)

Thousands march in 'Bersih' protests calling for Malaysian PM Najib Razak to step down ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-19/thousands-march-in-kuala-lumpur-calling-for-pm-najib-to-resign/8040056

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cxm6FIDUAAAk6wQ.jpg)

Activist arrested at Bersih 5 rally ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/activist-arrested-at-bersih-5-rally

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/uploads/gallery/2016-11/bersih25_19112016.jpg)

Malaysian police sweep up opponents ahead of rally ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://www.asiasentinel.com/politics/malaysian-police-sweep-up-opponents-ahead-of-rally/
Bersih leader and others arrested, Malaysiakini website charged in widespread move

(http://www.asiasentinel.com/wp-content/themes/_opinions/timthumb.php?src=http://www.asiasentinel.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Maria-Chin.jpg&q=90&w=660&zc=1)

Bersih 5: Red Shirts harassing people, women being targeted ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://news.asiaone.com/news/malaysia/bersih-5-red-shirts-harassing-people-women-being-targeted

(http://news.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/styles/w641/public/original_images/Nov2016/20161119_redshirt-thestar.jpg?itok=Uevuupqb&timestamp=1479521819)

Red Shirts gather to counter Bersih 5 rally ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/red-shirts-gather-to-counter-bersih-5-rally

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/images/sized/ez/RedShirti_19112016_620_413_100.jpg)

Cops arrest Red Shirts leader Jamal Yunos ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2016/11/19/cops-arrest-red-shirts-leader-jamal-yunos-from-hotel/

(http://s3media.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/jamal6.jpg)

All quiet in Johor: No signs of Bersih 5 supporters ~ 19 Nov 2016
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/11/190100/all-quiet-johor-no-signs-bersih-5-supporters
Johor adhered to the decree on Nov 3 by the Sultan of Johor, Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar, who banned the act of street demonstrations in the state. Johor is the first state to impose such a ban.

(http://assets.nst.com.my/images/articles/bolls.transformed.jpg)

Thousands march in Malaysian capital calling for PM Najib to step down ~ 18 Nov 2016
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-scandal-protests-idUSKBN13D2IM

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cxm9vIcVQAEWC2A.jpg)

Malaysia braces for more anti-government protests ~ 18 Nov 2016
http://time.com/4576100/malaysia-protests-kuala-lumpur-bersih-najib-razak/

(https://timedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/gettyimages-623253920.jpg)

Malaysian news portal editor charged over offensive videos ~ 18 Nov 2016
https://asiancorrespondent.com/2016/11/malaysian-news-portal-editor-charged-offensive-videos/

Bid to stop Bersih 5.0 rally dismissed ~ 17 Nov 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baK3C6petCQ

(http://brightcove.vo.llnwd.net/v1/unsecured/media/4405352761001/201611/2677/4405352761001_5214174769001_5214170273001-th.jpg?pubId=4405352761001&videoId=5214170273001)

Malaysiakini editor-in-chief charged over AG videos ~ 17 Nov 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bachJ_4c_PI

(https://cdn.asiancorrespondent.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/steven-gan-940x580.png)

Mahathir urges Malaysians to join protest rally as tension grows ~ 16 Nov 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/mahathir-urges-malaysians-to-join-protest-rally-as-tension-grows/3293612.html

(http://news.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/styles/781x469/public/20161119_drm2_thestar.jpg)

Tun M urges Malaysians to participate in Bersih 5 rally ~ 16 Nov 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMohInLqxFU

(http://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/3294218/1479299700000/large16x9/768/432/mahathir-bersih-5-shirt.png)

1MDB probe: Singapore banker Yak Yew Chee gets 18 weeks' jail, S$24,000 fine ~ 11 Nov 2016
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/1mdb-probe-singapore-banker-yak-yew-chee-gets-18-weeks-jail-s-24/3280626.html

(http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20161111&t=2&i=1161287254&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=LYNXMPECAA0F8)

Red Shirts demand explanation at Bersih 5 convoy ~ 11 Nov 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGjowV_b1WQ

Nga Kor Ming 倪可敏怡保力挺Bersih 5.0造势大会 ~ 6 Nov 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN4sEDhUX4I

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/sN4sEDhUX4I/hqdefault.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 30, 2016, 08:45:39 AM
Zika Pregnancies and big questions in Puerto Rico ~ 29 Nov 2016
http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/11/29/503592597/zika-pregnancies-and-big-questions-in-puerto-rico

(http://media.npr.org/assets/img/2016/11/28/zika-pr_custom-40df03413a2905042bc44459179ebac0e3b38015-s800-c85.jpg)

Fed’s Dudley says Puerto Rico will regain access to bond market ~ 29 Nov 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-29/fed-s-dudley-says-puerto-rico-must-strictly-limit-borrowing

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i3qRvymb99gg/v2/-1x-1.png)

Upside in Puerto Rico municipal bonds

Puerto Rico’s new governor is intent on restructuring the island’s debt.

By Andrew Bary
November 26, 2016

The recent election of a new governor in Puerto Rico, and the formation of a powerful federal financial control board this summer, have resulted in some optimism about a bondholder-friendly restructuring of much of the island’s $70 billion of debt.

The situation is still unsettled, but the new governor, Ricardo Rosselló, is viewed on Wall Street as a serious leader who wants to put the island on a stronger financial footing, bolster a weak economy, and work out a reasonable agreement with bondholders. Rosselló contrasts with the more combative outgoing governor, Alejandro García Padilla, who clashed with bondholder groups and then opted to default on $1 billion of debt-service payments on July 1.

Rosselló’s election came after midyear, when President Barack Obama signed the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act, which created a seven-member control board with broad fiscal and debt-restructuring authority.

The benchmark Puerto Rico 8% general-obligation bond due in 2035 rallied after the Rosselló win, to about 72 cents on the dollar from 69 cents, but has since slipped back to about 69 cents. The market for Puerto Rico’s senior sales-tax revenue bonds, known by their Spanish acronym Cofina, has been stronger, with long-term senior debt trading up to the low $70s from the high $60s in the summer, as Puerto Rico has continued to make payments to that debt.

Barron’s was among the first to warn about Puerto Rico’s growing financial troubles in a cover story more than three years ago (“Troubling Winds,” Aug. 26, 2013).

Key future developments will be a new fiscal proposal from the incoming governor and recommendations from a task force about steps the U.S. government can take to ease Puerto Rico’s financial burden.

Things should heat up in early 2017 because a stay on bondholder lawsuits ends in February—with a potential extension to around May 1. This means that a bond restructuring plan probably needs to be in place by then. There is apt to be considerable wrangling among different bondholder groups, and there is overall risk given Puerto Rico’s fiscal, economic, and pension problems.

Against that backdrop, the general-obligation bonds, trading at less than 70 cents on the dollar, look like the best way to bet on a bondholder-friendly deal that could give GO holders a package worth 85 cents to 90 cents on the dollar.

For Puerto Rico’s workers, debt crisis wWon’t end Christmas bonus ~ 23 Nov 2016
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/for-puerto-rico-s-workers-debt-crisis-won-t-end-christmas-bonus

Puerto Rico's debt crisis could get even worse ~ 21 Nov 2016
http://www.businessinsider.com/puerto-ricos-debt-crisis-could-get-worse-2016-11

(http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/58333aa6e02ba7d73c8b4bd2-480/puerto-rico.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on December 09, 2016, 04:53:24 PM
1MDB denies China rescue deal; Dr M's sarcastic retort to royal snub ~ 7 Dec 2016
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/365678

Has China offered to bail out Malaysia's 1MDB? At what cost? ~ 7 Dec 2016
http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2052636/has-china-offered-bail-out-malaysias-1mdb-what-cost
The new bailout – if confirmed – will be the latest effort by China to rescue 1MDB, which is facing money laundering investigations in multiple jurisdictions including Singapore, Switzerland and the United States. Najib has vehemently denied any wrongdoing and insists the government is cooperating with these probes.

(http://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/660x385/public/images/methode/2016/12/08/98898be4-bc69-11e6-b1a9-d0a597083a8f_660x385.jpg?itok=AdyqBDuA)

Malaysia, don’t use Burma to distract from disquiet at home ~ 5 Dec 2016
http://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/commentary/malaysia-dont-use-burma-to-distract-from-disquiet-at-home.html

(http://www.irrawaddy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Najib-Razak-Editorial-1.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: king on December 09, 2016, 05:04:33 PM
1MDB denies China rescue deal; Dr M's sarcastic retort to royal snub ~ 7 Dec 2016
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/365678

Has China offered to bail out Malaysia's 1MDB? At what cost? ~ 7 Dec 2016
http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2052636/has-china-offered-bail-out-malaysias-1mdb-what-cost
The new bailout – if confirmed – will be the latest effort by China to rescue 1MDB, which is facing money laundering investigations in multiple jurisdictions including Singapore, Switzerland and the United States. Najib has vehemently denied any wrongdoing and insists the government is cooperating with these probes.

(http://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/660x385/public/images/methode/2016/12/08/98898be4-bc69-11e6-b1a9-d0a597083a8f_660x385.jpg?itok=AdyqBDuA)

Malaysia, don’t use Burma to distract from disquiet at home ~ 5 Dec 2016
http://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/commentary/malaysia-dont-use-burma-to-distract-from-disquiet-at-home.html

(http://www.irrawaddy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Najib-Razak-Editorial-1.jpg)


此地无銀3百两
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 08, 2017, 07:55:45 AM
Malaysia to shut down scandal-ridden 1MDB ~ 7 Jan 2017
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/malaysia-shut-down-scandal-ridden-1mdb

Negative ‘perception’ dragging ringgit down: Malaysia Treasury Sec-Gen ~ 6 Jan 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/negative-perception-dragging-ringgit-down-treasury-sec-gen-says

The acidental whistle-blower: How a retired London journalist uncovered massive corruption half a world away ~ 6 Jan 2017
http://time.com/4608772/clare-rewcastle-brown-1mdb-malaysia-sarawak-report-najib-razak/

Falcon Bank's ex-Singapore branch manager Jens Sturzenegger slapped with 16 1MDB-related charges ~ 5 Jan 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2017/01/05/falcon-banks-ex-singapore-branch-manager-slapped-with-16-1mdb-related-charges/

(http://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/3414876/1483620114000/large16x9/768/432/jens-sturzenegger.jpg)

Ringgit hits 4.50 breaching psychological mark against US$ ~ 5 Jan 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/01/05/ringgit-hits-450-mark/

Ringgit expected to slide to 4.70 per US dollar by mid-2017 ~ 5 Jan 2017
http://business.asiaone.com/news/ringgit-expected-slide-470-us-dollar-mid-2017

(http://www.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/inline/images/15361_1483593788.jpg)

Things will get worse for the Malaysian Ringgit: BMI Research ~ 5 Jan 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/things-will-get-worse-for-the-malaysian-ringgit-bmi-research
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iJKNggZHO1yo/v2/-1x-1.png)

SGD-MYR ~ May 2015

(http://www.ein55.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Ein55-Newsletter-No-027-image-SGD-MYR-Optimism.png)

Malaysia's ringgit poised for fourth year of straight loss against dollar

December 5, 2016

The Malaysian ringgit is likely to suffer its fourth consecutive annual loss against the U.S. dollar this year, despite efforts by the central bank to stem the currency's slide, as local political uncertainties and weak global demand dent growth prospects of Southeast Asia's third-largest economy.

(http://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_pictrure_780x520_/public/articles/2017/01/05/40630389_-_22_11_2016_-_malaysia-fx_controls.jpg)

In November alone, the currency has shed 6.5% against the U.S. dollar, underperforming its regional peers, and adding to the more-than 3.0% loss so far this year. The ringgit edged 0.1% higher to 4.446 on Monday, but still hovers near its lowest levels since January 1998.

"While it's relatively stable for now, if the U.S dollar continues to strengthen after recent consolidation, the ringgit and other emerging market currencies will depreciate again," said Qi Gao, Asia foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank. He predicts that the ringgit will likely end the year at 4.4000 against the U.S. dollar before pushing towards 4.4800 by the end of 2017.

The ringgit has been under pressure tracking feeble global crude prices and political tension that has brewed since alleged financial scandal at a state-owned investment agency linked to Prime Minister Najib Razak. Political tension is likely to persist as former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad sharpens his attack against Najib. A call for early election could further cloud economic outlook as once arch rivals Mahathir and ethnic Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party could join hands to challenge Najib's United Malays National Organisation that has ruled Malaysia since it gained independence from Great Britain in 1957. At UMNO's recent annual party congress Najib warned that ethnic Malays will be "engulfed in a nightmare" if DAP wins the election in the multi-ethnic Muslim majority country.

"We think PM Najib's election strategy has increased political uncertainty and with it, demand for USD," ING's chief Asia economist Tim Condon wrote in an investor note on December 2.

Moreover, the U.K.'s shock decision to exit the European Union and a surprise U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump that risks jeopardising an ambitious trade deal that is currently in the works, have also weighed on the ringgit. Post Trump victory, expectations of an interest rate increase in the U.S. have firmed, prompting flight of capital from emerging markets, which in turn have pressured many Asian currencies.

The Malaysian ringgit has been hit harder than Asian peers. While the ringgit has declined 4.5%, the Philippine peso has shed 2.2% and the Singapore dollar has given up 2.7% against the greenback since Trump's win.

The recent weakening comes after the ringgit fell 19% last year - making it the worst performing Asian currency against the dollar - following a sharp plunge in crude oil prices. The rout prompted Malaysia, one of Asia's few net oil exporters and the world's second-largest natural gas producer after Qatar, to ease fiscal consolidation efforts.

Although Bank Negara Malaysia has routinely intervened in the foreign exchange market to smoothen volatilities of the ringgit and calm investors, it has stepped up efforts in the recent past to check the ringgit's fall. It recently cajoled currency traders to stop selling an already declining ringgit, reinforced existing rules to prohibit offshore trading of the currency in the so-called non-deliverable forward markets and announced a raft of measures to boost liquidity in the domestic currency market. Last week, the central bank directed exporters to retain only 25% of export proceeds in a foreign currency and convert the remainder into ringgit.

"In the near term, the moves are expected to provide support to the ringgit as and when export proceeds are being converted into the local currency," said RHB Research Institute's economist Vincent Loo. "However, demand for foreign currency to pay for imports and capital outflows could offset part of the gain."

The ringgit will also be under pressure as foreign investors continue to cash out. Foreigners sold 780.5 million ringgit ($174.8 million) worth of Malaysian shares in the week ended December 2, higher than 493.3 million ringgit worth of stocks sold a week prior.

"Malaysian equity has been subjected to heavy foreign money attrition particularly since the U.S. election," said MIDF Research.

Meanwhile, foreigners raised their holdings in Malaysian government bonds in October to 184.6 billion ringgit, accounting for more than half of the outstanding issue, according to latest available data from the central bank.

That compares to holdings totalling 181.4 billion ringgit, or 51.3% of the total government bonds, in September.

"Malaysia's fundamentals have not changed markedly, if anything, it has stabilized amid higher oil prices," said United Overseas Bank economist Julia Goh. "However, the economy's perception has been affected by concerns over reserve adequacy as global liquidity conditions tighten and the high level of foreign holdings of domestic debt securities, which makes ringgit more vulnerable to selling pressure."

Najib, who is also the finance minister, has been at the center of allegations that he received hundreds of millions of dollars drawn out of state investment fund 1 Malaysia Development Bhd.

He has consistently denied any wrongdoing even as the company also known as 1MDB was dragged into a civil suit in the U.S. and has been linked to probes in several countries including neighbor Singapore and Switzerland.

Bank Negara Malaysia kept the overnight policy rate steady at 3.00% at its final meeting for the year in November, drawing on resilient private consumption to cushion soft global demand for its exports and drive economic growth.

The central bank had cut the interest rate by a quarter percentage point in July in a bid to halt decelerating economic growth and brace the country for impact from U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union.

Malaysia's economy will likely grow between 4.0% and 5.0% in 2017, according to government forecast. That compares to an expansion of between 4.0% and 4.5% this year and 2015's 5.0% growth.

Malaysians underestimate the damage caused by the 1MDB scandal ~ 26 Nov 2016
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21710820-opposition-has-do-more-win-over-rural-malays-malaysians-underestimate-damage

Malaysia’s ringgit may keep tumbling amid the market's Trump tantrum ~ 21 Nov 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/21/why-malaysias-ringgit-may-keep-tumbling-amid-the-markets-trump-tantrum.html

Najib might go if the ringgit drops further: Academic ~ 20 Nov 2016
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000569619

Malaysian PM Najib Razak extends powers amid fury over 1MDB scandal ~ 27 Jul 2016
http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysian-pm-najib-razak-extends-powers-amid-fury-over-1mdb-scandal-20160727-gqeqj0.html

(http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/n/m/l/e/z/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gqeqj0.png/1471500752348.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 09, 2017, 08:05:57 AM
"Greed is an imperfection that defiles the mind; hate is an imperfection that defiles the mind; delusion is an imperfection that defiles the mind." ~ Gautama Buddha

AFP looks into whether 1MDB loot stashed here ~ 9 Jan 2017
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/afp-looks-into-whether-imdb-loot-stashed-here/news-story/73b90b36a5080948dcd68fd8053e0418

Convicted Singaporean banker Yeo Jiaewei has been named in court in Singapore as accumulating a $6 million Australian property portfolio.

(http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ea3b9095a33fe18a0adc3b2cfc3cceb1?width=650)

Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 09, 2017, 08:44:51 AM
Mahathir is old, but not stupid

By TK Chua
January 8, 2017

He has a point about the problem with selling off property to foreigners.

(http://s3media.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/mahathir-malaysia.jpg)

Suddenly Tun Mahathir was accused of not being able to understand the difference between foreigners owning land in Malaysia and Malaysia’s sovereignty.

The prime minister of 22 years has become “stupid” in the eyes of many who at one time had never failed to queue up to kiss his hand.

Sadly, I think the stupidity is the other way round. Those criticising and belittling Mahathir now are in actual fact the ones who are genuinely stupid.

I don’t think we can ever interpret what Mahathir said, in the literal sense. Of course, foreigners owning large swathes of prime lands will not affect Malaysia’s sovereignty in the immediate term.

But if the whole area is carved out exclusively for foreigners from a particular area, may I know what kind of development model is this? How will this affect the interests of ordinary Malaysians in the future? How would this affect the independence and future administration of the country?

Unfettered purchase and ownership of lands and real estate would unequivocally push the prices beyond the reach of most Malaysians, including the middle class.

How could Malaysians ever compete with the rich from China in terms of wealth and purchasing power? Five to 10% of the wealthy from China are probably equivalent to the population of the whole of Malaysia. Is there any wonder why the prices of real estate are escalating far beyond the reach of most Malaysians?

Foreign direct investments (FDI) into manufacturing and services are very different from FDI into land, real estate and infrastructure. The former creates and increases Malaysia’s productive capacity in terms of employment generation, transfer of technology, exports, and foreign exchange earnings. It also helps in generating higher-paying jobs.

FDI into land, real estate and infrastructure, on the contrary, means selling off national assets.

Ownership changes hands, from Malaysians to foreigners. We get one-time proceeds from sales but there will be no recurring income.

In fact, selling off infrastructure, like energy generation plants, ports, and railroads will result in Malaysians paying foreigners for the use of facilities within their own country. Instead of export earning, there will be an outflow of funds.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad may be old, but he is certainly not stupid.

Desperate to survive, Malaysia’s PM sells his country to China ~ 27 July 2016
http://www.asiasentinel.com/econ-business/malaysia-pm-sells-country-to-china/
Enormously inflated rail contract a ruse to pay off 1MDB debt

(http://www.asiasentinel.com/wp-content/themes/_opinions/timthumb.php?src=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.asiasentinel.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F07%2Fa82d400b67593e7a8209a95eaf2ddac2.jpeg&q=90&w=660&zc=1)

Malaysia's 2nd largest pension fund may cut 5% minimum return target ~ 19 Jul 2016
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/07/19/kwap-may-cut-its-5-minimum-return-target/

HK’s Shaw family to acquire $376m London office from Malaysia’s KWAP ~ 2 Mar 2016
http://www.dealstreetasia.com/stories/hks-shaw-family-to-acquire-376m-london-office-from-malaysias-kwap-32686/

Malaysia’s 1MDB may have overvalued property assets: Report ~ 5 Jan 2016
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/05/malaysias-1mdb-may-have-overvalued-property-assets-report.html

Malaysia pension fund plans U.K. sale in asset repatriation move ~ 30 Dec 2015
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-29/malaysia-pension-fund-plans-u-k-sale-in-asset-repatriation-move
1MDB sells Edra power assets to China firm for nearly RM10b cash ~  23 Nov 2015
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/11/23/1mdb-sells-edra-power-assets-to-china-firm-for-nearly-rm10b-cash/

《远方的家》 20161219 一带一路(77)马来西亚 奋斗在新山 ~ 19 Dec 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8v5qL_Ng86Q

品尝马来西亚传统早餐,炭炉面包在马来西亚如何保持传统烤法。

(http://img1.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/23411/23411671606aed3e7b1f7bc8511efb61cbdb0ff3.gif)

新山早餐店店主做拉茶

(http://img5.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/23411/234116759d72381ae1f8e9ab7c149c485f7cbb13.gif)

俯瞰碧桂园森林城市国际会所海之贝

(http://img9.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/23411/23411689bbfa2b32bc99a892e5e9812a3a2999d6.gif)

$100 billion Chinese-made city near Singapore 'scares the hell out of everybody' ~ 22 Nov 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-11-21/-100-billion-chinese-made-city-near-singapore-scares-the-hell-out-of-everybody

Planeloads of buyers fly in as condos rise from the sea

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iSrfhhL0IqFU/v0/-1x-1.jpg)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/izRgGAzFK5iw/v0/-1x-1.jpg)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iQgZxdI_jRHc/v1/-1x-1.png)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ikECC5yIicUo/v3/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 12, 2017, 03:25:09 PM
Trump trades unwind in bonds, FX on blowout Treasuries uction ~ 12 Jan 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/bonds-rally-dollar-erases-advance-with-trump-silent-on-stimulus

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8Hh__FRg9C8/v4/-1x-1.png)

Suddenly, home sale agreements are falling apart across the U.S. ~ 11 Jan 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-11/suddenly-home-sale-agreements-are-falling-apart-across-the-u-s

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHB9DjTCI0w4/v1/740x-1.png)

Gold ETF hits best level in a month ahead of Donald Trump presser ~ 11 Jan 2017
http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/gold-etf-hits-best-level-in-a-month-ahead-of-donald-trump-presser/

(http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/WETF01-pulse-011017-newscom.jpg)

Gold prices rise as markets press on with Trump trade unwind ~ 10 Jan 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2017/01/10/Gold-Prices-Rise-as-Markets-Press-on-With-Trump-Trade-Unwind.html

(https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrations/2017/01/10/Gold-Prices-Rise-as-Markets-Press-on-With-Trump-Trade-Unwind_body_Picture_1.png)

Gold: The rate hike rally continues ~ 10 Jan 2017
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-rate-hike-rally-continues
Gold rallied nicely after the Fed’s first rate hike in 2015, and it’s rallying nicely again after the second rate hike.

(http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/images/thomson011017-2.png)

Hedge funds are holding a lot of short positions in gold on the COMEX.

(http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/17jan/2017jan10hedge1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 14, 2017, 02:33:57 PM
Petaling Street traders expect slower sales for CNY ~ 14 Jan 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/metro/community/2017/01/14/petaling-street-traders-expect-slower-sales-for-cny-rising-cost-of-living-weaker-ringgit-and-start-o/

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/01/13/20/43/metd_na_1401_pg2_ytpeta_niklasalbakri_4.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=3D247E3371A432051C43F4C948700B02AC3BE65D)

Weak ringgit may affect Chinese New Year preparations ~ 5 Jan 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/metro/community/2017/01/05/weak-ringgit-may-affect-chinese-new-year-preparations/

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/01/04/20/50/mete_0501_2swkpricey_sd_1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=D567CF9FC948DDBD3D45C7BCAE8C8AB9195E06E0)

PM, our high cost of living is because of you ~ 21 Dec 2015
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/324048

‘Had you been prudent and competent, our exchange rate would not drop.’

SGD-MYR ~ May 2015

(http://www.ein55.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Ein55-Newsletter-No-027-image-SGD-MYR-Optimism.png)

Price hikes due to external factors, not solely government’s fault, says Najib ~ 18 Dec 2015
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/price-hikes-due-to-external-factors-not-solely-governments-fault-says-najib

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/uploads/articles/family_(5)_1002.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 14, 2017, 05:41:29 PM
These major retailers are closing stores in 2017 ~ 13 Jan 2017
http://www.clark.com/major-retailers-closing-2017

(http://ce0ijuan.cloudimg.io/s/crop/875x400/https://static.clark.com/clark-howard_213797121.jpg)

American Apparel to close L.A. headquarters and all 110 U.S. stores ~ 13 Jan 2017
http://fashionista.com/2017/01/american-apparel-closing-officially

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ab5d9a9a3ed859dde357a82d47f335882dc866a6/14_141_4386_2632/master/4386.jpg?w=300&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=e97c53faa15062b7af666f520a26a75d)

JC Penney gears up for closures as department stores sales continue to deteriorate ~ 13 Jan 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/13/jc-penney-gears-up-for-closures-as-department-stores-sales-continue-to-deteriorate.html

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/01/13/104217666-GettyImages-517862955.530x298.jpg)

The nation's biggest retailers face an inconvenient truth: An imperiled profit model ~ 12 Jan 2017
http://www.forbes.com/sites/barbarathau/2017/01/12/the-nations-biggest-chains-face-an-inconvenient-truth-an-imperiled-profit-model/

(http://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/591082156/960x0.jpg)

The Limited is closing all 250 of its stores ~ 9 Jan 2017
http://fortune.com/2017/01/08/thelimited-closing/

(http://media2.abc15.com/photo/2017/01/04/The_Limited_store_closing_0_52595005_ver1.0_320_240.jpg)

Sears and Kmart closing another 150 stores as holiday sales plummet ~ 6 Jan 2017
http://fortune.com/2017/01/05/sears-kmart-closings/

(http://static-28.sinclairstoryline.com/resources/media/2d8d4bc3-19d3-4ea2-b9d4-dc04c8dfcff5-large16x9_GetImage4.jpg?1483649751862)

(http://content.whas11.com/photo/2016/04/21/kmart_1461292813534_1834693_ver1.0.jpg)

Is your local Macy's closing? Here's the full list of stores being closed ~ 4 Jan 2017
http://www.forbes.com/sites/lauraheller/2017/01/04/is-your-local-macys-closing-heres-the-full-list-of-stores-being-closed

(http://www.ronntorossianupdate.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Macys-Closing-Pr.jpg)

A giant wave of store closures is about to hit the US ~ 31 Dec 2016
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/giant-wave-store-closures-hit-130917801.html

(https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/_jS9DF9v153RSLkniEzYgg--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjtzbT0xO3c9NjUwO2g9NDg4/http://globalfinance.zenfs.com/en_us/Finance/US_AFTP_SILICONALLEY_H_LIVE/A_giant_wave_of_store-587d7c2c7da022eaed9d286f7856c797)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 18, 2017, 09:10:17 AM
‘Look East’ policy not about selling land to foreigners, Dr M tells sultan ~ 17 Jan 2017
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/look-east-policy-not-about-selling-land-to-foreigners-dr-m-tells-sultan

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/uploads/articles/2016-10/YM_dr_m_freedom_summit_20161008_14.jpg)

Johor Sultan slams Dr Mahathir for playing ‘politics of fear and race’ ~ 16 Jan 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/world/asia/johor-sultan-says-had-enough-dr-mahathirs-fearmongering-over-chinese-investors

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image/public/photos/43_images/28516269.JPG)

Ringgit rout ~ 16 Jan 2017
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/news/1180901/ringgit-rout
Large foreign holdings of bonds make Malaysia highly vulnerable to capital flight, while weak fiscal position and political turmoil add to risk. A perfect storm is forming around the Malaysian ringgit, as its value remains at risk from a protracted economic slump aggravated by a domestic political scandal and the prospect of rising US interest. The ringgit, which fell by 4.3% against the dollar last year following an 18.5% decline in 2015, has not posted an annual gain since 2012. At 4.48 per dollar, the ringgit has touched its lowest level since the Asian financial crisis in 1998 and was Asia's worst-performing currency for emerging markets in 2016.

(http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/20170116/2183517.jpg)

(http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/20170116/2183521.jpg)

(http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/20170116/2183525.jpg)

Iskandar’s plunging fortunes

By Khairul Khalid
15 Dec 2014

This has been a year to forget for the Iskandar economic region in Johor.

After much lauded growth in the last five years, led by a robust property market, cracks began to show in Iskandar this year. Bullishness about Iskandar’s property market has been replaced with a more cautious, sometimes even bleaker outlook.

What is causing this dwindling optimism about Iskandar? For a start, the numbers don’t lie.

Alarming drop

“In comparison to the first half of 2013, there was a drop of about 48% in terms of total transactions in the same period this year,” said V Sivadas, executive director of PA International Property Consultants based in Johor Bahru (JB).

That is an alarming drop in sales by any standards. The fact that it is happening just when Iskandar seems to have picked up momentum in the last few years has rattled the market.

According to Sivadas, this decline is across all sectors of the property market in Iskandar.

“Our records indicate 5,419 total transactions in the first half of this year at a value of about RM3.7 billion. In comparison with the first half of 2013, there was a drop of about 48% in terms of total transactions and about 37% drop in terms of total value of transactions in the first half of 2014,” said Sivadas who based his analysis on available records of properties sales within Iskandar Malaysia.

According to Sivadas, 2013 was the peak of the Iskandar market in terms of number of transactions (25,034 transactions) and total value of transactions (estimated RM20.3 billion — excluding the controversial RM4.5 billion land sale by the Johor Sultan to Guangzhou R&F). In comparison, there were 21,503 transactions in 2012, at a total value of about RM13.5 billion.

The 20-year project is spread across a sprawling 550,000 acres and divided into five flagship zones in Johor and has experienced exponential growth. It is designed to rejuvenate JB and position it as a major regional economic hub. It is targeting between RM20 billion to RM22 billion in investments targeted yearly until 2025.

Although Iskandar consists of several designated zones, property development has arguably fuelled its remarkable growth in recent years. Major property developers, both local and foreign, have flocked to Iskandar in the last five years to ride the wave of Iskandar’s property boom.

It’s not that the well has run dry for Iskandar. Recently, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak announced that Iskandar has attracted close to RM25 billion worth of investments this year, adding up to a total of RM156 billion investments secured for the region since its inception in 2006.

Supply outrunning demand

For many observers, the root cause of the slump this year has simply been supply outrunning demand in Iskandar.

Even as early as January this year, it was reported that purchase bookings of new property launches in Iskandar were already down 20% to 30%. Several other factors have contributed to the cooling down of the Iskandar property market.

Last year, the federal and state governments moved to check an overheating property market nationwide. An increase in Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT), hiking minimum property purchases of foreigners from RM500,000 to RM1 million and a property levy of 2% for foreign purchases in Johor were all implemented to clamp down on speculative buying.

All of these measures slowed down the market considerably this year, Iskandar included.

Market observers have also cautioned that the influx of big Chinese developers, such as Country Garden and Guangzhou R&F, into Iskandar could backfire. Although they have brought in much needed investments, the massive scale of their launches have analysts worried about a potential oversupply or overhang in the market.

Country Garden launched 9,000 units of the Danga Bay development in 2013, a scale that was unprecedented in the Johor market. Guangzhou R&F’s development on the 116 acres it bought from the Johor Sultan is set to dwarf Country Garden’s project.

It has also been reported that Guangzhou R&F is planning to launch a staggering 30,000 units in the next few years.

Chinese invasion

These mammoth developments and launches by the Chinese developers in Iskandar have sparked genuine fears that a severe oversupply of high-end units will drag down the Iskandar region for years to come.

“Most of Country Garden’s and Guangzhou R&F’s properties are premium priced. Very few ordinary JB residents can afford them. If the Singaporeans stop buying, they will be in deep trouble. I feel their sales are already suffering, although no official figures have been released,” said Andy Mohan, a property agent in JB.

Even major local developers have not been spared the impact of the Chinese invasion in Iskandar.

Last August, UEM Sunrise slashed its annual sales target by 40% due to poor second quarter (2Q14) results, partly due to poor take up of new its launches in Iskandar.

UEM Sunrise’s new chief executive officer Anwar Syahrin Abdul Ajib has also said that the company will “re-strategise” its position and reduce its dependency on Iskandar, where it has approximately 60% of its total land bank.

The fact that UEM Sunrise, one of the biggest developers in Malaysia and master developer of Nusajaya, one of the designated zones in Iskandar, is feeling the pinch and re-evaluating its business its Iskandar is a telling sign that all is not well in Iskandar.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 18, 2017, 07:02:39 PM
Mustapa: Malaysia must ‘move on’ from 1MDB saga ~ 18 Jan 2017
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/01/18/mustapa-malaysia-must-move-on-from-1mdb-saga/
The 1MDB scandal has proven to be an embarrassment to Malaysia and drawn accusations that Malaysia failed in its response to the allegations.

New Zealand court to hear US$232m assets seizure case linked to 1MDB probe ~ 18 Jan 2017
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/new-zealand-court-to-hear-us-232m-assets-seizure-case-linked-to/3446822.html

(http://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/2974726/1478007042000/large16x9/768/432/malaysian-businessman-jho-low.jpg)

The Wolf of Wall Street dragged into Malaysia corruption scandal ~ 2 Apr 2016
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/the-wolf-of-wall-street-dragged-into-malaysia-corruption-scandal/

(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/04/02/dicaprio_2795414b-large_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqpJliwavx4coWFCaEkEsb3kvxIt-lGGWCWqwLa_RXJU8.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 22, 2017, 01:03:12 PM
Singapore: At some suburban malls, retailers confront the sound of silence ~ 21 Jan 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/business/some-suburban-malls-retailers-confront-sound-silence

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image_lightbox/public/photos/43_images/28567196.JPG)

Mall closures hit small-town America hard ~ 20 Jan 2017
http://www.pymnts.com/news/retail/2017/mall-closures-hit-small-town-america-hard/

(http://cdn.pymnts.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/mall-closures-small-town-america.jpg)

Sold, for $100: A massive shopping mall once valued at $190 million ~ 20 Jan 2017
http://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/sold-for-100-a-massive-pennsylvania-mall-once-valued-at-190-million
These days, the mall is just over half occupied, and its now-former owner, a company called Pittsburgh Mills Limited Partnership, recently defaulted on a $143 million bank loan.

(http://assets.atlasobscura.com/article_images/39002/image.jpg)

Ipoh man lived in Singapore shopping mall for 4 years ~ 16 Jan 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2017/01/17/ipoh-man-lived-in-singapore-mall-for-four-years/
Chen, who is from Ipoh, Perak, has worked in Singapore for more than 10 years and currently earns more than $1,000 (RM3,139) a month.

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/01/17/07/58/34085093_-_16_01_2017.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=326A6D50F5FDA9F71389FD3295CDDDFB7E85436B)

Singapore investors pumped $13.85 billion into Asia-Pac property in 2016 ~ 13 Jan 2017
http://news.asiaone.com/news/business/singapore-investors-pumped-1385-billion-asia-pac-property-2016

(http://www.asiaone.com/sites/default/files/inline/images/15361_1484287222.jpg)

Founder, employees wistful about closure of Mustafa’s original outlet ~ 12 Jan 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/business/founder-employees-stoic-about-closure-mustafas-serangoon-plaza-branch
By Feb 2017, Singapore’s biggest 24-hour mall Mustafa will be shutting its 65,000 sq ft Serangoon Plaza store, reducing its total retail space by a quarter. Since the news broke, many people have expressed dismay online about the downsizing of Singapore’s biggest 24-hour mall.

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image/public/photos/43_images/28477989.JPG)

Chongqing’s mall-building frenzy leaves an empty feeling ~ 4 Jan 2017
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/chongqings-mallbuilding-frenzy-leaves-an-empty-feeling/news-story/4b7954f535ad65eb3052f3e186b7faca
Online sales made up 12-13% of total retail spending in 2015 in China and were expected to hit 18.5% in 2016. If it hits that figure, China will have the largest percentage of internet shoppers in the world.

(http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ed71738bd39166b6a59edae0769c8e05?width=650)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on February 05, 2017, 05:18:42 PM
Increase in petrol price not an excuse for traders to increase price of goods ~ 5 Feb 2017
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2017/02/209616/increase-petrol-price-not-excuse-traders-increase-price-goods#cxrecs_s

Producer price index rises to record level ~ 1 Feb 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/02/01/producer-price-index-rises-to-record-level/
The Malaysian producer price index (PPI) increased at its fastest pace on record in December on higher price of crude oil and the weaker ringgit.

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/01/31/18/44/bizdx_ahz_0102_producerindexpdf.ashx/?w=600&h=333&crop=1&hash=90711B4114F16CE21520AE5C68C55446F8640528)

Petrol prices up by 20 sen for February ~ 31 Jan 2017
http://www.nst.com.my/news/2017/01/208578/petrol-prices-20-sen-february
The country’s petrol and diesel prices have been placed on a managed float system from Dec 1, 2014 following the removal of fuel subsidies.

(http://img.astroawani.com/2016-11/41478417792_minyakpetrol.jpg)

Malaysia's central bank reserves fall to $94.3 bln as of 13 Jan 2017 ~ 20 Jan 2017
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/malaysias-cbank-reserves-fall-to-943-bln-as-of-jan-13-20170120-00056

Economic issues preoccupy Malaysians ~ 16 Jan 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/opinion/columnists/global-trends/2017/01/16/economic-issues-preoccupy-msians-as-the-new-year-gets-underway-ordinary-citizens-are-concerned-about/
The reserves as at Dec 30, 2016 were US$94.6bil (RM424bil). The total foreign debt outstanding was RM865bil at the end of September 2016. Of this, offshore borrowing (in foreign currency) was RM472bil, and ringgit-denominated government bonds held by non-residents were worth RM211bil, according to Bank Negara data.

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2014/07/10/101828166-114302321.530x298.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on February 05, 2017, 06:12:07 PM
Holding up a cloudy mirror ~ 5 Feb 2017
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/opinion/zurairi-ar/article/holding-up-a-cloudy-mirror
With the general elections coming soon, Malaysia has yet to produce a viable Opposition. It is as if no lessons were learnt since the 2008 polls: that Opposition needs to stand together not only on a consensus that the parties can agree on, but also the common things that the public wants.

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/uploads/articles/2017/Zurairi_Trump01.jpg)

Why president Trump is bad for freedom ... in Malaysia

Civil activists in the country enjoyed US support under Obama, but the incoming president’s anti-China stance may require him to turn a blind eye to Najib’s domestic agenda

By Sheridan Mahavera
15 Jan 2017

After eight years with an influential friend in the White House, Malaysian civil society groups are bracing for the worst when Donald Trump takes over on January 20.

During outgoing President Barack Obama’s two terms, human rights advocates, democracy groups and anti-corruption activists had cultivated warm relations with US officials in Kuala Lumpur, even meeting the 44th US president on his visit to the capital last year – the first by any sitting US president.

In that time, Washington’s tacit support for their causes had been a crucial morale booster during a period of regular clampdowns by the administration of Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who himself was eager to curry favour with the US leader.

But now they fear a shift in US priorities by a Trump administration that is likely to view Malaysian civil liberties as of relatively low diplomatic priority. Or even worse, that a US, which no longer champions democracy and human rights, might provide moral cover for Najib to further suppress freedoms.

Friendlier relations with Malaysia had been prized by Obama, who saw them as playing into his “pivot to Asia” strategy and aggressive promotion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). But Trump has indicated he will scrap both policies, throwing the relationship into question.

Under Obama, the US had taken a nuanced approach to Malaysia, with Washington engaging with Malaysian activists critical of Najib even as the two heads of state cultivated a personal relationship. Najib even boasted of playing golf with Obama in 2014 and of riding in his limousine, ‘the Beast’, in 2015.

(http://www.scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/660x385/public/images/methode/2017/01/13/89017b5c-d7c9-11e6-bbb7-6a43a6f882fe_660x385.JPG)

Indeed, it was the personal connection between Obama and Najib that made Washington’s support of Malaysian activists and opposition parties so significant, said Wong Chin Huat, a political scientist at the Penang Institute.

“Obama’s emphasis on democracy and human rights boosted the morale of civil society because it gave them the sense they were not alone,” Wong said.

Meanwhile, Obama’s support also helped to highlight the work of activists, said Cynthia Gabriel, of the Coalition to Combat Corruption and Cronyism (C4).

During Obama’s time in office, two prominent activists and government critics – the lawyer Ambiga Sreenevasan and the transgender rights advocate Nisha Ayub – received the US International Women of Courage award in 2009 and 2015 respectively.

A spokesperson for transgender rights group Justice for Sisters said Nisha’s award had increased the visibility of transgender persons.

“It was very encouraging for activists and LGBT persons to see our colleague and the collective advocacy being recognised by different countries, including the US. You have to celebrate the little victories to keep you going,” the spokesperson said.

The US embassy in Kuala Lumpur had also repeatedly noted its concern at the trial of former opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim – a trial Anwar’s supporters said was motivated by political reasons. Anwar was charged in 2008 with sodomising a male aide and, after his original acquittal was overturned by higher courts, is now serving a five-year prison term.

The US administration’s statements regarding the case along with its informal meetings with his family did not keep Anwar out of jail, but its actions did help to keep “the case alive in the international spotlight”, according to one of Anwar’s lawyers, Sivarasa Rasiah.

But whether a Trump-led administration would go to as much trouble is unclear. Activists fear Trump will turn a blind eye to Najib’s domestic transgressions in order to secure Malaysian support for his anti-China strategy.

“If Trump backs Najib all the way in order to isolate China, then Najib can be doubly safe,” Wong, of the Penang Institute, said.

Najib has been accused of links to a corruption scandal at 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), a state fund where, according to a civil suit by the US Department of Justice, US$1 billion was siphoned off to buy luxury properties and artwork. While Najib has denied any wrongdoing, his former associate Low Teck Jhow and stepson Riza Aziz are named in the suit.

Najib responded to the suit by intensifying Malaysia’s ties to China, leading a major investment mission to Beijing where he secured infrastructure deals worth 143.64 billion ringgit (HK$249 billion).

Although the US justice system is considered more independent than Malaysia’s, Wong said there was a suspicion that Trump’s administration could delay the suit if doing so was politically expedient.

“Although Obama prioritised geopolitical considerations, he still paid attention to human rights and democracy, and Najib would still be pressured. This is unlikely with Trump,” Wong said.

C4’s Gabriel said Trump’s divisive election campaign, which was criticised for preying on fears of foreigners and Muslims, did not bode well for Malaysia.

“If Trump rolls back civil liberties and stops talking about them on the international stage, then this will be bad for civil society,” Gabriel said. “If he does that, Malaysian leaders will say ‘look, now the US is following our example and limiting civil liberties, so we were right’. I hope Trump proves me wrong, but this is my fear.”
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on March 06, 2017, 05:12:39 PM
This chart says a selloff is looming as fear stalks the stock market rally ~ 3 Mar 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-a-selloff-as-fear-stalks-this-stock-market-rally-2017-03-03

(http://ei.marketwatch.com//Multimedia/2017/03/03/Photos/NS/MW-FH289_SPXVIX_20170303135702_NS.jpg?uuid=2fcac7da-0043-11e7-822d-001cc448aede)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on March 08, 2017, 06:59:11 AM
US trade deficit in January largest since 2012 ~ 8 Mar 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/08/us-trade-deficit-in-january-largest-since-2012/

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/03/07/16/41/dcx_doc6tp5rbqvvyxmo7w8imz.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=A52D465E604C6F37D2BBA6D4A88CA84D1D704655)

The deep state attempts to “decapitate” Donald Trump ~ 6 Mar 2017
https://dailyreckoning.com/deep-state-attempts-decapitate-donald-trump/

Once again, raising the debt limit emerging as a flash point ~ 4 Mar 2017
https://pjmedia.com/trending/2017/03/04/once-again-raising-the-debt-limit-emerging-as-a-flash-point/

Donald Trump’s economic plan has a trillion dollar problem ~ 2 Mar 2017
http://fortune.com/2017/03/01/trump-congress-address-debt/

Can the U.S. economy grow itself out of a $20 trillion debt? ~ 1 Mar 2017
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5343815674001/?#sp=show-clips

David Stockman - Everything will grind to a halt in 2017 ~ 25 Feb 2017
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xgNncFHAng

A $20 trillion national debt: Trouble Ahead?

By Johanna Bennett
22 Feb 2017

Almost a month ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its 20,000 milestone. Now another “20” is looming ahead. Any day now, the U.S. will surpass $20 trillion in total public debt — or as it is commonly called, “the national debt.”

It’s a truly vast number. Over the past 20 years, then national debt has quadrupled, far outstripping the rate of growth of the U.S. economy to become the biggest pile of debt in the world. Thanks to low interest rates, the cost of maintaining that debt has fallen compared to overall Fed spending over the same time period.

Of that $20 trillion, $14.4 trillion is held by the public, and nearly half of that sum in the hands of foreign investors such as the Japanese and Chinese governments. But China and Japan have both recently cut their exposure to U.S. Treasuries, fueling worries of a major drop in bond prices.

But there’s another sticky issue, namely rising interest rates, says Andrew Tanzer of Gerstein Fisher, a New York advisory firm.

We do not make any specific predictions, but it does seem prudent for investors to be prepared for potentially higher volatility in bond markets, stemming from the strong possibility of the confluence of rising rates, higher US government debt levels, and much higher annual interest expenses in the federal budget, which could change investors’ perception of Treasuries and risk. For our elected officials, burgeoning interest payments would require some tough decisions on government spending programs.

Tanzer goes into more detail:

The days of a low interest-rate environment, with 10-year US Treasury bonds yielding 2% or less and the government able to service $20 trillion of debt with a relatively manageable portion of the total budget may soon be in the past. Interest rates are rising (the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose by 70 basis points to 2.47% in the year to February 16, 2017), and the market’s expectation for the Trump Presidency is for higher economic growth, inflation and interest rates, which could dramatically change the current equilibrium.

…The CBO projects that debt held by the public will increase from $15 trillion at the end of 2017 to $25 trillion by 2027, largely due to swelling budget deficits. This would raise the public debt/GDP ratio from 77% to 89%, which the CBO notes would be the highest level since 1947 and more than twice the average over the past five decades in relation to GDP.

For its ten-year projection, the CBO assumes economic growth and inflation rates of about 2% and a rise in interest rates on the 10-year Treasury from 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 3.6% in the latter part of the next decade. It estimates that the combination of rising interest rates and growing federal debt held by the public will cause government interest payments on that debt to nearly triple in nominal terms and almost double relative to GDP. The CBO thinks rising interest payments will lead to a drop in government discretionary spending from 6.3% of GDP in 2017 to 5.3% by 2027, the smallest ratio since comparable data was kept from 1962.

The CBO scenario projection doesn’t need to be exactly right to observe the substantial risk of much higher debt-servicing costs in the federal budget. A one-percentage point rise in rates now implies a $200 billion annual increase in interest payments, and more in future years as the stock of outstanding debt expands from $20 trillion. The question of how sustainable this level of debt is for the United States is complicated somewhat by the use of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and by the extensive and intensive use of US Treasuries as a highly liquid, low-risk investment by banks, funds, and governments around the world. There are many possible scenarios, but one is the possibilty of a “negative feedback loop,” wherein rising interest rates increase the cost of US debt to the government, shaking the confidence of investors that the debt level is sustainable and causing them to sell their US bonds, further driving up rates.
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on March 21, 2017, 09:36:03 AM
UK to trigger article 50 on 29 March, but faces delay on start of talks ~ 20 Mar 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/20/theresa-may-to-trigger-article-50-on-29-march

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3177368cb835cadca328291b5277ab537d2cca88/0_157_3700_2221/master/3700.jpg?w=1225&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&s=6d594e3816b407425fcd6123b450b98e)

Sterling plummets as Article 50 date confirmed ~ 20 Mar 2017
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/pound-us-dollar-gbp-usd-exchange-rate-today_uk_58cfddb6e4b00705db50d6be

(http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_630_noupscale/58cfe2001400002000070686.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on April 22, 2017, 11:07:56 AM
Expert: Property prices yet to reach rock bottom ~ 22 Apr 2017
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/nation/2017/04/22/expert-property-prices-yet-to-reach-rock-bottom/
Chartered surveyor Ernest Cheong foresees further drops in the next two to three years.

(http://s3media.freemalaysiatoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Ernest-Cheong_Property-price_600.jpg)

Tough times for REITs ~ 22 Apr 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/22/tough-times-for-reits/

High volume: The highest sustained volume in footfalls continue to be seen in 1Utama Shopping Centre where rentals go for as high as RM600 per sq m. The shopping complex is estimated to receive some 120,000 visitors a day on weekends.

(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/04/21/18/52/bizd_mm_2204_p3a_mm_1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=BB78601EF5352D2B60BEBC43CDCAD6773FDA311A)

Too much of some, too little of others ~ 22 Apr 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/22/too-much-of-some-too-little-of-others/
House prices continue to rise but at a slow pace as affordable housing becomes the mantra
(http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/04/21/18/51/bizw_p16a_2204_jy_1.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=F7F9343A758478F45DEBEE81D373CC17F6150811)

Global survey shows KL home prices rising as Singapore’s depreciate ~ 20 Apr 2017
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/global-survey-shows-kl-home-prices-rising-as-singapores-depreciates

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/uploads/articles/kuala_lumpur_kl_2011s.jpg)

Luxury property owners taking up to 30% cut just to seal the deal ~ 17 Apr 2017
http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/luxury-property-owners-taking-up-to-30pc-cut-just-to-seal-the-deal
According to data from the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) on residential homes here valued at over RM1 million, unsold units increased by over 9% from the first quarter of 2014 to the same period a year later.

(http://media.themalaymailonline.com/uploads/articles/2016-07/malaysia_property_reuters.JPG)

Storm clouds gather for listed landlords as global property market passes peak ~ 28 Mar 2017
https://www.commercialrealestate.com.au/news/storm-clouds-gather-for-listed-landlords-as-global-property-market-passes-peak/

An emerging consensus that the global property market has passed its peak could signal trouble to come for listed landlords in Australia.

(http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/v/8/h/f/s/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1490686810735.png)

Singapore home prices fall, extending decline to 14th quarter ~ 3 Apr 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-03/singapore-home-prices-fall-extending-decline-to-14th-quarter

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/icgVkxj0SjCk/v0/-1x-1.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on April 27, 2017, 10:07:21 AM
Even Wall Street's biggest bull says to chill ~ 25 Apr 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-25/the-daily-prophet-even-wall-street-s-biggest-bull-says-to-chill-j1y0a1kh
Almost half the Nasdaq's run-up since Jan. 26, when the index first crossed 5,500, can be attributed to gains in Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft. The group also accounts for about a third of the S&P 500's rise this year.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iGRfpB3j2gu0/v2/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 04, 2017, 09:58:04 AM
Facebook shares dip despite better-than-expected earnings ~ 3 May 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/03/facebook-earnings-q1-2017.html
(https://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/facebook-q1-2017-earnings-call-2.png)

Apple sells fewer iPhones in last quarter, shares slide ~ 3 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-02/apple-sells-fewer-iphones-in-latest-quarter-as-consumers-wait
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i7O_Z2emdbHw/v4/800x-1.png)

(http://investorplace.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/aaplweekly.png)

Awaiting corrections ~ 1 May 2017
http://econintersect.com/pages/investing/investing.php?post=201705012336
Five stocks (Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft) represent 41% of the Nasdaq 100 and have accounted for >40% of the gain in the S&P 500 this year.

(http://econintersect.com/images/2017/05/58722242welsh.tech.2017.may.01.JPG)

Student who worked in Chinese iPhone factory explains why manufacturing jobs aren't coming back to the U.S.. ~ 30 Apr 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/30/iphone-factory-observer-why-trump-cant-bring-manufacturing-jobs-back.html
If President Trump wants iPhones manufactured in the U.S., Apple will need to front the cost to pay the much higher wages required in the U.S., which means that consumers will have to be willing to pay more. Either that, or it will have to rely a lot more on machines, which won't create jobs, and might end up taking them.
(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/04/28/104436073-zeng-iphone.530x298.JPG)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 04, 2017, 11:29:43 AM
Keep watching the markets ~ 3 May 2017
https://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opinion/keep-watching-the-markets/
It would be prudent not to ignore nascent market warning signs as the year unfolds.

Why better GDP should make us question our macroeconomic views ~ 2 May 2017
https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/improved-global-gdp-should-make-us-question-our-macroeconomic-views-20170502
It's time to stop saying the world economy is experiencing a 'new normal'.

Is China's economy going to collapse? ~ 3 May 2017
http://www.whatinvestment.co.uk/is-chinas-economy-going-to-collapse-2553573/

Chinese stocks retreat as investors assess financial crackdown ~ 3 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-03/china-stocks-edge-lower-amid-muted-trading-ahead-of-fed-decision

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/igHXijTw6cyw/v2/800x-1.png)

China stocks down on softer-than-expected PMI surveys, regulation worries ~ 2 May 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/china-stocks-close-idUSZZN2R0A00
The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 0.4 percent, to 3,426.58 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.3 percent to 3,143.71 points.

A world turned inside out ~ 1 May 2017
http://www.todayonline.com/commentary/world-turned-inside-out

(http://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/photo_gallery_image/public/photos/43_images/29487313.JPG)

China’s $11 trillion economy and markets are in a tug of war ~ 1 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-01/china-s-markets-and-economy-are-going-in-different-directions
  • Xi Jinping’s move to rein in risks is rattling markets
  • Growth is solid even as manufacturing PMI tips some slowing
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iYN25MMIuXWw/v2/800x-1.png)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iQ5nge_0YYYo/v2/600x-1.png)

China's money rates up on seasonal cash demand ~ 28 Apr 2017
http://www.reuters.com/article/china-bonds-idUSL4N1I02OF

LeEco plans Beijing real estate sale amid cash crunch ~ 21 Apr 2017
http://www1.szdaily.com/content/2017-04/21/content_16053007.htm

China's $8.5 trillion shadow bank industry is back in full swing ~ 19 Apr 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-18/china-s-8-5-trillion-shadow-bank-industry-is-back-in-full-swing
  • Curbs prompting borrowers to seek alternative funding sources
  • Government treading ‘fine line’ on financing: Everbright
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i52BE.mGcOGU/v2/600x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 17, 2017, 10:40:45 AM
Gold prices build bullish channel, rally to deeper resistance ~ 16 May 2017
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/xau-usd/2017/05/15/gold-prices-build-bullish-channel-srepstans.html

Dollar slides to 6-month low as geopolitics weigh ~ 16 May 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-slides-to-6-month-low-as-worries-about-trump-return-2017-05-16
The DXY fell to 98.109 trading around its lowest level since Nov. 9, just a day after Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

Gold and USDJPY tend to move inversely or in opposite directions; gold’s rally is likely to be complimented by the yen’s rally thus leading to USDJPY heading lower.

Dow futures tumble on Trump political woes and Asian markets fall as safe-haven yen climbs ~ 17 May 2017
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/16/asia-markets-focus-on-euro-strength-chinese-tech-stocks-trump-fbi-news.html

(http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2017/05/16/104474149-GettyImages-683514372.530x298.jpg)

Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 18, 2017, 01:55:24 PM
Gold prices jump over 200-DMA as Trump-Comey 'nears impeachment', T-Bond yields fall with dollar ~ 16 May 2017
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-051720171

Robert Mueller, former F.B.I. director, is named special counsel for Russia investigation ~ 17 May 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/17/us/politics/robert-mueller-special-counsel-russia-investigation.html

Commentary: Revealing sensitive intelligence to Russia crosses a dangerous line ~ 17 May 2017
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/commentary-revealing-sensitive-intelligence-to-russia-crosses-a-8856986
In giving sensitive intelligence to the Russians, Trump has done considerable damage to his own intelligence service and the security of the US, argues Pulitzer Prize-winning author and reporter Tim Weiner.

(http://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/8857030/16x9/670/377/2db9f9045aeaf3a7c1218dc9234e2044/lw/president-donald-trump-said-he-had-personally-asked-ousted-fbi-director-james-comey-whether-he-was-under-investigation-1494526485871-5--1-.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 02, 2017, 06:32:28 AM
House prices go into reverse for first time in 18 months ~ 1 Jun 2017
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/house-prices-go-into-reverse-for-first-time-in-18-months-20170601-gwhx77.html

(https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/q/e/d/8/o/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gwhx77.png/1496321927039.jpg)

Altair's 'sell everything' call brave or reckless? ~ 30 May 2017
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/altairs-sell-everything-call-brave-or-reckless-20170530-gwg4lz.html

Altair Asset Management hands back cash to clients citing looming correction ~ 30 May 2017
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/fund-manager-hands-back-cash-to-clients-citing-looming-correction-20170529-gwfgua.html

Phillip Parker has caused a stir with his move to get out of the market.

(https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/p/o/5/1/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gwg4lz.png/1496117102359.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 10, 2017, 06:12:38 AM
May's future in doubt after Brexit election gamble backfires ~ 9 Jun 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-09/comey-leaves-trump-under-a-crippling-cloud-of-investigations
The pound dropped as much as 2% and was trading at $1.2721 at 7:07 a.m. in London.
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iCR7kZUb1l0g/v0/800x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 25, 2017, 02:35:07 PM
Brazil defends beef after 'system-wide problem' prompts U.S. ban ~ 23 Jun 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-brazil-beef-idUSKBN19E1HV
Among the violations the USDA detected were abscesses, unidentified foreign material and "ingesta," which can include any food, drink or medicine that cattle consume. Brazilian beef exports to the United States from companies including Marfrig Global Foods SA and Minerva SA also have been missing shipping marks and had labeling problems on containers, according to USDA data.

U.S. bans fresh Brazil beef imports over safety concerns ~ 23 Jun 2017
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-brazil-beef-idUSKBN19D2VE

(https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20170623&t=2&i=1190206666&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=780&pl=468&sq=&r=LYNXMPED5M0ER)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 26, 2017, 08:10:10 AM
Here comes quantitative tightening ~ 16 Jun 2017
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4081999-comes-quantitative-tighteningThe implications of quantitative tightening ~ 31 May 2017
http://www.financialsense.com/matthew-kerkhoff/implications-of-quantitative-tightening

(http://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/desktop/users/u3089/images/2017/balancing-act.png)

Fed's Williams sees gradual policy tightening of three hikes ~ 29 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-29/fed-s-williams-seeks-gradual-tightening-for-goldilocks-economy

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iM_CU6RCsnXo/v2/800x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 26, 2017, 08:18:00 AM
What the Fed’s interest rate hike could mean for your paycheck ~ 19 Jun 2017
http://fortune.com/2017/06/19/fed-federal-reserve-raising-interest-rates-hike-wage-growth/

What is the meaning of Dark Cloud Cover (乌云盖顶)? ~ The Dark Cloud Cover (乌云盖顶), in candlestick charting, is a pattern where a black candlestick follows a long white candlestick. It can be an indication of a future bearish trend.

(http://i1127.photobucket.com/albums/l630/zuolun/darkcloudcover_zps2b7c2c85.gif)

"If people are not borrowing with interest rate at 0.5%, it is unlikely that a cut to 0.25% or zero will make much difference. However, such a cut would further negatively impact savers and pensioners. QE and low interest rates are deflationary. Why is this so hard for economists and central bankers to grasp?"

Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 16, 2017, 08:07:20 AM
The new abnormal in monetary policy ~ 14 Jul 2017
http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/226270/the-new-abnormal--in-monetary-policy
The US Fed started phasing out its asset-purchase programme (QE) in 2014, and began normalising interest rates in late 2015. And the European Central Bank is now pondering just how fast to taper its own QE policy in 2018, and when to start phasing out negative interest rates, too.

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/dc6cb0621bb8940fd2f7713037de6a630678ba53/0_185_5118_3072/master/5118.jpg?w=700&q=20&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&dpr=2&s=a3a4f3179ea0ed878ba23f94b9d8051b)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 18, 2017, 06:58:34 AM
Trump calls on Canada, Mexico not to manipulate their currency ~ 17 Jul 2017
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-calls-on-canada-mexico-not-to-manipulate-their-currency-2017-07-17

Toronto now officially a buyers’ market, amid nationwide home sales slump: CREA report ~ 17 Jul 2017
http://globalnews.ca/news/3603364/toronto-buyers-market-canada-housing-crea/

Toronto home sales plummet to a seven-year low ~ 17 Jul 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/toronto-home-sales-fall-15-1-percent-in-june-amid-national-drop
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ikhul2sVjvpc/v1/800x-1.png)

Will China's tightened capital controls pop the housing bubble? ~ 15 Jul 2017
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/housing-market-bubble-pop-overblown-china-capital-controls-1.4191491
China imposes further restrictions to control capital flowing out of the country. On July 1, regulators dramatically lowered transaction limits to $9,000 before they must be reported to banking regulators.

Bank of Canada hikes key interest rate to 0.75%; next increase could be in October ~ 12 Jul 2017
http://globalnews.ca/news/3592433/bank-of-canada-key-interest-at-0-75-per-cent/

(http://thecanadianpress-a.akamaihd.net/graphics/2017/static/cp-bank-key-overnight-rate-july2017.png)

Toronto and Vancouver home prices could fall up to 40%: economist ~ 12 Jun 2017
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/home-prices-could-fall-up-to-40-per-cent-economist-1.3454660

Ontario to tax non-resident foreign housing buyers 15% ~ 20 Apr 2017
http://www.torontosun.com/2017/04/20/ontario-to-tax-non-resident-foreign-housing-buyers-15

(https://www.ctvnews.ca/polopoly_fs/1.3365638.1492010481!/httpImage/image.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 24, 2017, 07:57:41 AM
Commodity Price Watch Indonesia: Rubber, Crude Oil & Coal ~ 21 Jul 2017
https://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/todays-headlines/commodity-price-watch-indonesia-rubber-crude-oil-coal/item8007
Rubber prices tumbled about 2% in early trading on Friday (21/07) after surging 4% in the previous trading session. The price of rubber for December 2017 delivery, the most active contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), tumbled 1.99% (or 4.30 points) to 211.90 yen per kilogram at 07:40 am local Jakarta time. Ahead of this tumble, there occurred a rubber price rally as most farmers held back their rubber stock sales following expectations of higher prices.

Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand mull cutting rubber output to stabilise prices ~ 17 Jul 2017
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/17/malaysia-indonesia-and-thailand-mull-cutting-rubber-exports-to-stabilise-prices/
Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia are considering cutting rubber output from 10% to 15% in order to curb falling prices. The SMR 20 rubber price in Malaysia dropped from RM957.23 per kg in January to RM626.65 per kg in July this year.

(http://img6.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/24969/24969256b21c61c5bc4ce8fb43d2a5bf6980ccf5.jpg)

Rubber planters rally as prices slide 40% ~ 17 Jul 2017
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/1286611/rubber-planters-rally-as-prices-slide-40-
More than 400 rubber planters converged on Songkhla City Hall Thursday demanding the government urgently step in to reverse tumbling rubber prices after they shed more than 40% in the space of a year.

(http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/20170714/2393143.gif)

Final tariffs on Chinese truck tires are even higher than before ~ 23 Jan 2017
http://www.moderntiredealer.com/news/719684/*-tires-are-even-higher-than-before
The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has more than doubled some of the tariff rates it says are necessary to offset the subsidies and dumping of Chinese-made truck and bus tires imported into the U.S. Evidence during the preliminary stage resulted in preliminary subsidy rates ranging from 17.06% to 23.38%; but in the final investigation those rates jumped to 38.61% to 65.46%.

(http://images.moderntiredealer.com/post/M-Goodyear-Fuel-Max-LHD-G505D-1.JPG)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 02, 2017, 08:28:54 AM
Graham: Military options are 'inevitable if North Korea continues' ~ 1 Aug 2017
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/01/politics/lindsey-graham-north-korea-donald-trump-white-house/index.html

North Korea says new missile test proves it has capability to nuke any part of US ~ 28 Jul 2017
http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2017/07/north_korea_says_new_missile_t.html

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/08/01/Editorial-Opinion/Images/06115683-2361.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 17, 2017, 07:57:44 AM
Toys 'R' Us preparing for possible bankruptcy filing ~ 16 Sep 2017
http://fortune.com/2017/09/16/toys-r-us-bankruptcy-filing/

(https://fortunedotcom.files.wordpress.com/2017/09/toys-r-us-bankruptcy.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 08, 2018, 06:55:23 AM
Why the US stock market has become a drag on bullish sentiment ~ 7 May 2018
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2144985/why-us-stock-market-has-become-drag-bullish-sentiment
U.S. government bond yields inch higher as traders look ahead to inflation data, auctions ~ 7 May 2018
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-government-bond-yields-tick-higher-as-oil-stocks-climb-2018-05-07

Asia emerging-market stock rally may have peaked: Morgan Stanley ~ 3 May 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-03/morgan-stanley-sees-possible-market-top-for-emerging-asia-stocks
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iTI3lGkVyi6o/v2/-1x-1.png)

'The silence of the bulls': Fund managers are really scared right now ~ 30 Apr 2018
http://dailywealth.com/articles/the-silence-of-the-bulls-fund-managers-are-really-scared-right-now/

Good earnings can’t support over-priced stocks ~ 24 Apr 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y22R_Ph9wQ

Cracks in bull case emerge yet ‘stubborn’ investors not moving ~ 20 Mar 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-20/cracks-in-bull-case-emerge-yet-stubborn-investors-not-moving
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i7RzJTmBbvbk/v1/-1x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: DR KIM on May 08, 2018, 07:06:45 AM
Why the US stock market has become a drag on bullish sentiment ~ 7 May 2018
http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2144985/why-us-stock-market-has-become-drag-bullish-sentiment
  • The benchmark 10-year yield settles above the 3% mark for the 1st time in 4 years, America’s previously buoyant stock market is emerging as the main source of anxiety.
  • Last Thursday 3 May 2018, the index tumbled below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level, for the 4th time in the last month. Having just suffered its 1st negative quarter since the 3rd quarter of 2015, the S&P 500 has barely budged since early April and is still down more than 7% from its peak in late January.
  • The poor performance of the world’s leading equity gauge has had a dampening effect on broader sentiment. Global stocks, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index, are down 7.5% since late January, with German, Japanese and emerging market shares falling 5.5%, 7% and nearly 11% respectively.
U.S. government bond yields inch higher as traders look ahead to inflation data, auctions ~ 7 May 2018
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-government-bond-yields-tick-higher-as-oil-stocks-climb-2018-05-07

Asia emerging-market stock rally may have peaked: Morgan Stanley ~ 3 May 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-03/morgan-stanley-sees-possible-market-top-for-emerging-asia-stocks
  • MSCI EM Asia Index lost almost 10% since record high
  • End-January level may be “major market top” for Asia EM
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iTI3lGkVyi6o/v2/-1x-1.png)

'The silence of the bulls': Fund managers are really scared right now ~ 30 Apr 2018
http://dailywealth.com/articles/the-silence-of-the-bulls-fund-managers-are-really-scared-right-now/

Good earnings can’t support over-priced stocks ~ 24 Apr 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y22R_Ph9wQ

Cracks in bull case emerge yet ‘stubborn’ investors not moving ~ 20 Mar 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-20/cracks-in-bull-case-emerge-yet-stubborn-investors-not-moving
  • Concerns about trade and stagflation rise: BofAML survey
  • U.S. 10-year at 3.6% would spark rotation from stocks to bonds
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i7RzJTmBbvbk/v1/-1x-1.png)

DON'T  BE   P. O N D A N  :giggle: :giggle: :rofl:

 :cash: :cash: :cash: :thumbsup: :dancing: :party: :cocktail:
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 08, 2018, 11:05:54 AM
美银美林:美元大涨又如何?牛市正在形成黄金将剑指1450美元 ~ 8 May 2018
http://24k99.fx168.com/1805/2512772.shtml

以史为鉴:当股市崩盘时黄金白银走势将如何演绎? ~ 6 Feb 2018
http://fund.jrj.com.cn/2018/02/06093524068158.shtml

Gold is exhibiting an untidy uptrend and traders should be cautious ~ 30 Apr 2018
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/30/gold-price-is-showing-an-untidy-uptrend--commentary.html

(https://sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/files/2018/04/30/Guppy%20CNBC%2020180501%20gold.doc.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 09, 2018, 10:27:33 AM
乌云盖顶(Dark Cloud Cover Candlestick Pattern)
乌云盖顶形态又称乌云线形态,是K线图较为常见顶部转形态图表之一。这种形态由两根K线组成,它们一般出现在上升趋势之后,在有些情况下也可能出现在水平调整区间的顶部。乌云盖顶(Dark-Cloud Cover)经常发生在一段上升行情的顶部,由一阴一阳两根K线组成,是一个看跌反转信号。


(https://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictionary/terms/darkcloud.gif)

Tianjin ZX ~ Bullish Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

Tianjin ZX closed with a 'dark cloud cover' @ US$1.13 (-0.04, -3.4%) with 1.66m shares done on 8 May 2018.

Immediate support @ US$1.09, immediate resistance @ US$1.17.

(https://img0.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/26025/26025290d143a1552421d67cca1ca6d0b8199e98.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 09, 2018, 10:35:09 AM
DON'T  BE   P. O N D A N  :giggle: :giggle: :rofl:

 :cash: :cash: :cash: :thumbsup: :dancing: :party: :cocktail:

"There are 3 ways to make a living: be first, be smarter, or cheat."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5EsNV-gyr8

(https://i.imgur.com/HrRSGZP.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on May 17, 2018, 03:03:07 PM
Hong Kong's brain drain: Why its young are losing hope and leaving. ~ 17 May 2018
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/cnainsider/hong-kong-brain-drain-young-emigration-housing-prices-china-10240236

Hong Kong's next emigration wave - Living in a coffin home ~ 19 Apr 2018
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/video-on-demand/insight/hong-kong-s-next-emigration-wave-living-in-a-coffin-home-10152806

20万香港底层的真实生存状态:我还没死,就住进了棺材房 ~ 4 Oct 2017
https://www.sohu.com/a/196241273_313480

(http://5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com/images/20171004/a07e53a4548f428b89ee9df80aa14618.jpeg)

A Hong Kong apartment sets an Asian price record, amid government curbs ~ 2 Oct 2017
https://www.domain.com.au/news/a-hong-kong-apartment-sets-an-asian-price-record-amid-government-curbs-20171002-gys6o8/

(https://static.domain.com.au/domainblog/uploads/2017/10/02093218/2_gysfi7.jpg)

Hong Kong commercial property prices triple over past decade ~ 14 Sep 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-14/hong-kong-commercial-property-prices-triple-over-past-decade
  • Hong Kong’s gain followed by Manhattan, London, Singapore
  • Four cities including Amsterdam and Tokyo had price declines
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iQxYpF4iflkc/v1/800x-1.png)

My week in Lucky House: the horror of Hong Kong's coffin homes ~ 29 Aug 2017
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/29/hong-kong-coffin-homes-horror-my-week

(http://5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com/images/20171004/3ad9cef3e2f74acaaa76d30c55240fd5.jpeg)

Ghost of the 1997 Crisis stalks Hong Kong's economy ~ 22 May 2017
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-21/ghost-of-97-stalks-hong-kong-economy-infected-by-housing-debt

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iylGcCzqoUX0/v2/800x-1.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 18, 2018, 09:19:17 AM
Caught in China’s cash crunch: why private companies are collapsing into a black hole of shadowy debt ~ 18 Jul 2018
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2155706/caught-chinas-cash-crunch-why-private-companies-are-collapsing
Chinese businessman Zhou Jiancan built an empire from steel pipes and industrial hoses but it all came apart when the money ran out

Panic roils China's peer-to-peer lenders ~ 17 Jul 2018
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/company-news/video/panic-roils-china-s-peer-to-peer-lenders~1440247

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i_HuPk6Fp.VI/v5/-1x-1.jpg)

How Trump’s China trade war is impacting copper stocks and what’s next  ~ 16 Jul 2018
https://stockhead.com.au/resources/how-trumps-china-trade-war-is-impacting-copper-stocks-and-whats-next/
Copper is now down 16% from its June peak and is now trading at about US$6,180 per tonne.

China Q2 GDP growth slows to 6.7% y/y, in line with expectations ~ 16 Jul 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-economy-gdp/china-q2-gdp-growth-slows-to-6-7-pct-y-y-in-line-with-expectations-idUSL4N1U92TK

China's Yuan sinks past key level, will rest PBOC's resolve ~ 13 Jul 2018
https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/2018/07/12/china-s-yuan-sinking-past-key-level-will-test-pboc-s-resolve

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iHzbvIBAl.oo/v2/pi0TFsqn_N8siPbzgcJYQlLw/1200x-1.png)

Shanghai index down 20% from high pushing equity valuations below 2015 market lows ~ 2 Jul 2018
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2153425/china-stocks-tumble-pushing-equity-valuations-below-2015
The Shanghai Composite Index lost 71.86 points to 2,775.56 at the close on Monday 2 July 2018. The CSI 300 Index of large companies sank 2.9% and the technology-heavy ChiNext gauge tracking growth stocks shed 1.1%. A depreciating yuan also weighed on equities as the yuan dropped 0.4% against the US dollar to 6.649, the lowest level in 7 months.

(https://www.theautomaticearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Shanghai20PercentLoss.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 03, 2018, 03:46:50 PM
Heatwave goodbye? How long is the 2018 heatwave going to last, when did it start and what's the forecast for next week? ~ 3 Aug 2018
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6842810/heatwave-uk-how-long-last-weather-reasons-forecast/

By 2070, heatwave could force up to 400 million Chinese to find refuge in the south ~ 3 Aug 2018
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/by-2070-heatwave-could-force-up-to-400-million-chinese-to-find-refuge-in-the-south/news-story/8857ecf48576fb2f35eb2bf1e87fba8b

(https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/726162c46a466c3e5202583e71bb76df?width=650)

Massive iceberg threatens Greenland village with tsunami ~ 17 Jul 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkyUslmBJcQ

(https://img.purch.com/h/1400/aHR0cDovL3d3dy5saXZlc2NpZW5jZS5jb20vaW1hZ2VzL2kvMDAwLzEwMC83Mjgvb3JpZ2luYWwvaW5uYXJzdWl0LWdyZWVubGFuZC1pY2ViZXJnLmpwZw==)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 10, 2018, 08:21:31 AM
Phew! Asia, Europe heatwave pushes Australia coal prices to six-year high ~ 2 Aug 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/08/02/business/02reuters-australia-coal-prices.html

(http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=2018-08-02T025027Z_GFXEE8207W3BV_1_RTRGFXG_BASEIMAGE.PNG)

The disturbing reason heat waves can kill people in cooler climates ~ 1 Aug 2018
https://www.vox.com/2018/7/18/17561266/summer-2018-heat-wave-japan-texas-weather-health
Temperatures don’t have to reach extremes before turning deadly.

Extreme weather disrupts global wheat market & downstream firms ~ 30 Jul 2018
http://mcalindenresearchpartners.com/2018/07/30/extreme-weather-disrupts-global-wheat-market-downstream-firms/
A heatwave across the Northern hemisphere is destroying crops and causing grain prices to surge. That’s bad news for grain importing countries and packaged food manufacturers.

(http://pdf.reuters.com/pdfnews/pdfnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=2018-08-02T061758Z_GFXEE820HHY1L_1_RTRGFXG_BASEIMAGE.PNG)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on August 11, 2018, 07:29:05 AM
Yuan extends losing streak for record ninth straight week ahead of devaluation anniversary ~ 10 Aug 2018
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2159229/yuan-extends-losing-streak-record-ninth-straight-week-ahead
On Friday, the yuan dropped 0.46% to 6.7751 per dollar, heading for its ninth week of declines, weighed by a crisis in Turkey that is causing traders to offload risky emerging markets and Asian currencies while buying the safe-haven US dollar.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i0ZuhpUvTxXw/v5/960x540.jpg)

It's time for a new economic strategy in Turkey ~ 10 Aug 2018
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2018/08/10/its-time-for-a-new-economic-strategy-in-turkey/

(https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/https%3A%2F%2Fblogs-images.forbes.com%2Fstevehanke%2Ffiles%2F2018%2F08%2FTurkey-FX-08.10.18-1200x721.jpg)

USD/TRY
https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-try
1 US$ = TRY 6.4032 (+0.8533, +15.38%) on 11 Aug 2018 at 16:58:27

Why the collapse of the Turkish Lira matters ~ 10 Aug 2018
https://www.investopedia.com/trading/why-collapse-turkish-lira-matters/
Donald Trump: "I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!"

(https://i.investopedia.com/image/jpeg/1533926181909/20180810usdtry.jpg)

USD/RUB
https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-rub
1 US$ = RUB67.7061 (+1.0162, +1.52%) on 11 Aug 2018 at 16:50:00

The Russian ruble is getting slammed amid US sanctions ~ 9 Aug 2018
https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/the-russian-rouble-is-getting-slammed-amid-us-sanctions-2018-8-1027447056

(https://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5b6c44a0e199f330008b4dc5-880/screen-shot-2018-08-09-at-94133-am.png)

A new global credit crunch to come? ~ 4 Aug 2018
http://www.cadtm.org/A-new-global-credit-crunch-to-come
Turkey is the most extreme example of the growing debt crisis beginning to hit economies that depend on foreign capital flows and investment in order to grow.

(http://www.cadtm.org/local/cache-vignettes/L640xH491/crunch-1-833ad.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 05, 2018, 08:14:59 AM
Trump's march to war with Iran ~ 4 Oct 2018
https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/comment/2018/10/4/trumps-march-to-war-with-iran

(https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/file/getimagecustom/841ae248-088f-4f3a-b088-03e8817e2a5b/850/479)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 08, 2018, 12:32:15 PM
MREITs outlook clouded by oversupply of office, retail spaces in Klang Valley ~ 8 Oct 2018
http://www.theborneopost.com/2018/10/08/mreits-outlook-clouded-by-oversupply-of-office-retail-spaces-in-klang-valley/

(https://s12.therealdeal.com/trd/up/2018/10/1200-rent-malls-650x405.jpg)

Pressure on office occupancy and rental in the Klang Valley ~ 12 Sep 2018
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/09/12/savills-pressure-on-office-occupancy-and-rental-in-the-klang-valley/

More malls to enter the fray in the Klang Valley ~ 12 Sep 2018
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2018/09/12/more-malls-to-enter-the-fray-in-the-klang-valley/
An estimated 6.58 million sq ft of net lettable space from more than 10 malls is expected to enter the Klang Valley retail market in the second half this year, raising concerns of added pressure on occupancy levels for both existing and incoming stock.

(https://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2018/09/11/18/45/bizdx_ach_xx09_mall-openingpdf.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=A1F3F46EE45372699B5FE39AB747587AC8B44A43)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: dan_koo on December 06, 2018, 10:36:02 AM
Nice!!  :clap: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: jinny on December 06, 2018, 11:36:40 AM
 :clap: :thumbsup: :cash: :cash:
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: Xieye on January 21, 2019, 05:30:43 PM
I must admit that I am not some sort of expert for this market but it sounds like huge stock of office space. This can only decrease price of renting office which is not so bad for other businesses
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on February 24, 2019, 08:24:21 AM
Singapore HIV data leak shakes a vulnerable community ~ 22 Feb 2019
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47288219
The positive image illusion: "How is it that the place that I thought was safe is now not safe for us?"

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/3F99/production/_105718261_gettyimages-947804676.jpg)

Mikhy Brochez disclosed list of HIV-positive people in new leak, prison service makes police report ~ 17 Feb 2019
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hiv-data-leak-mikhy-brochez-singapore-prison-service-11251244
Mikhy Brochez, the American at the centre of a recent HIV data leak, had illegally disclosed the information of 13 HIV-positive people who were scheduled for a medical check-up in Changi prison, said the Singapore Prison Service (SPS) on Sunday (Feb 17).

HIV data leak: 'Mikhy Brochez' Facebook account removed for violating user policies ~ 14 Feb 2019
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hiv-data-leak-mikhy-brochez-facebook-account-removed-violating-user-policies-141005120.html
Facebook removed Brochez’s two accounts — one under “Mikhy Brochez” and another under “Michael Brochez” — because of the severity of policy violations he had committed.

HIV data leak: Singapore authorities refute 'baseless allegations' made by Mikhy Brochez ~ 13 Feb 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ra3gwJdZaRU

Singapore vows to pursue American man Mikhy Farrera Brochez over HIV data leak as public disquiet brews ~ 13 Feb 2019
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2185875/singapore-vows-pursue-american-man-mikhy-farrera-brochez-over-hiv
Fury and fear in Singapore after American man Mikhy Farrera Brochez spills city’s HIV secrets ~ 11 Feb 2019
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/2185576/fury-and-fear-singapore-after-american-man-mikhy-farrera
An American hid his HIV status to survive in Singapore. Exposed, he allegedly punished thousands living with the virus. ~ 1 Feb 2019
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/02/01/an-american-hid-his-hiv-status-survive-singapore-exposed-he-punished-thousands-living-with-virus-authorities-say/

Singapore HIV registry data leaked online in health breach ~ 28 Jan 2019
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47027867
Confidential data about more than 14,000 people diagnosed with HIV, including foreign visitors, has been stolen in Singapore and leaked online.

Boyfriend of “faked talent” jailed for abetting him to defraud government ~ 14 Nov 2018
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2018/11/14/boyfriend-of-faked-talent-jailed-for-abetting-him-to-defraud-government/

The strange case of the fake child prodigy who used his boyfriend's blood to cheat an HIV test ~ 2 Mar 2017
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/mikhy-farrera-brochez-mikhy-brochez-fantasist-walter-mitty-fake-child-genius-prodigy-bogus-a7607611.html
Mikhy Farrera-Brochez claimed to have entered Princeton at 13, but was found to have faked educational qualifications and used his boyfriend’s blood to cheat an HIV test so he could work as a lecturer in Singapore.

(https://www.eyerys.com/sites/default/files/hiv-status-singapore.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 10, 2019, 11:13:55 AM
Hong Kong: Clashes after massive protest against extradition law ~ 10 Jun 2019
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/hong-kong-sees-umbrella-protest-china-extradition-bill-190609072541194.html

「103萬人反送中大遊行斥林鄭配合中共賣港」陳方安生與市民心聲 ~ 9 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lieApQpNY5g

为何香港能做到?反“送中法”百万人大游行点评 ~ 9 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDjnXYjBXdI

Hong Kong protests against extradition law ~ 9 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-tqfal4w34

(https://www.theglobeandmail.com/resizer/jW2t8eUvAw0Pu15C32iuI78bJ7A=/620x0/filters:quality(80)/arc-anglerfish-tgam-prod-tgam.s3.amazonaws.com/public/GAY3ZHEXSJEKVM22DXMZQZRQCQ.JPG)

If bill allowing extradition to China passes, 'nobody is safe' in Hong Kong, says critic ~ 17 May 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-hDVsy2cNc

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/r-hDVsy2cNc/maxresdefault.jpg)

為何我們要唱《撐起雨傘》 ~ 2 Jan 2015
https://www.thestandnews.com/culture/%E7%82%BA%E4%BD%95%E6%88%91%E5%80%91%E8%A6%81%E5%94%B1-%E6%92%90%E8%B5%B7%E9%9B%A8%E5%82%98/

撐起雨傘 Umbrella Revolution ~ 5 Oct 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na2mR9mvDoU

(https://thehousenewsbloggers.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/10010068_577540365714694_2367111288453509760_o.jpg?w=829)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 14, 2019, 01:48:08 PM
吳明德教授: 逃犯條例范冰冰完美示範 ~ 7 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIWojU9hA-k

Man who killed girlfriend in Taiwan could be free by October, setting effective deadline for HK govt’s extradition plan ~ 29 Apr 2019
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3008099/sentence-man-who-killed-girlfriend-taiwan-sets

萬人冒雨反修例 林鄭拒撤回:非度身訂造「送中」 ~ 2 Apr 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xj9xD8yucgg

范冰冰确定逃税! 税款和罚金超过8.8亿元人民币 ~ 3 Oct 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa4BYhU-KLg

(https://z1.dfcfw.com/2018/10/4/2018100407394653024448.jpg)

港女台灣被殺棄屍 男友返港1個月後被捕 ~ 14 Mar 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YvRvfLxuc0

(https://news.files.bbci.co.uk/include/vjeastasia/185-timeline-generator/assets/hongkong_protest-project-assets/img/13-dec.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 24, 2019, 08:58:54 AM
Young, jobless and feeling hopeless in Singapore

By Yuen Sin
23 Jun 2019, 5:00 am SGT

Experts flag vulnerability, struggles of group not in education, employment or training.

(https://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/styles/x_large/public/articles/2019/06/23/st_201aa90623_ysneet23_4927088.jpg)

For the past 1 & 1/2 years, 24-year-old Benjamin has been spending his days at home.

He is not in school. He is not working. He is not undergoing training.

He whiles away the time reading the newspapers, browsing the Internet or listening to the radio, keeping his expenses to a minimum. Occasionally, he ventures out to run errands with his parents, who pay for his meals and other necessities.

Benjamin, who does not want his real name used due to the stigma associated with his condition, has a diploma in media and communication from Singapore Polytechnic.

But he became fearful about looking for jobs after unsuccessful applications to about 10 post-production companies. He has also had negative experiences during previous internships, including being fired at an events company for being slow at simple tasks such as packing items into containers.

Last year, he fell into depression. Benjamin is among a growing group of youth aged 15 to 24 in Singapore who are defined as Neet (not in education, employment or training) by organisations such as the World Bank and International Labour Organisation (ILO).

The latest available data – from the National Youth Survey in 2016 – showed that there are 20,100 Neets here, making up 4.1 per cent of the resident youth population.

This is an uptick from 19,700 in 2013, comprising 3.7 per cent of the resident youth population.

The survey was conducted by the National Youth Council, with input from the Ministry of Manpower and the National Population and Talent Division. It polled a representative sample of 3,531 youth in 2016, and 2,843 youth in 2013.

Unlike the youth unemployment rate – which captures the number of jobless among those actively searching for work, Neet data includes those who have dropped out of the labour force altogether.

This is thus a more comprehensive measure of the economically idle among young Singaporeans, said the survey report.

Neets are a vulnerable segment of the youth population, said the ILO, as they are at risk of both labour market and social exclusion.

Singapore’s Neet rate is low by global standards. Neet rates in other developed countries such as Germany and Finland in 2016 ranged from 6.5 to 9.9 per cent.

But higher job expectations, on top of uncertain economic conditions, may have led to a growth in this Neet rate – which experts say is likely to go higher.

Japan's modern-day hermits: The world of hikikomori ~ 18 Jan 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFgWy2ifX5s

A posed picture of a hikikomori. The term hikikomori refers to those who experience physical isolation, social avoidance and psychological distress for six months or longer, according to the BBC.

(https://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_pictrure_780x520_/public/articles/2019/06/23/nwy_depression_190619_97_2x.jpg)

三和人才市场:零工族生存实录 ~ 12 Nov 2018
http://www.sohu.com/a/274800170_100161341

[NHK][纪录片][中文字幕] 三和人才市场・中国日结百元的青年们 ~  11 May 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcidornQ7rU
中国深圳郊外的龙华新区,有一处大型职业介绍所“三和人才市场”。周围小巷内,残破建筑物林立,廉价网吧、旅馆、杂货店等百余家店铺鳞次栉比。众多年轻人或在网吧内瞌睡,或露宿街头。本片在绚丽奢华的中国硅谷-深圳,倾听从社会底层支撑着制造业大国的人们的心声,关注在希望和绝望之间挣扎的年轻打工者们的现实。

(http://5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com/images/20181112/fe4451bdb2784de2ae763fd26669de41.jpeg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 24, 2019, 10:09:46 AM
Vietnam’s economy to overtake Singapore’s in 10 years: DBS report ~ 29 May 2019
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/vietnams-economy-overtake-singapores-10-years-dbs-report

(https://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/20190529_graph.jpg)

Singapore's economy slows to decade low as trade war bites ~ 21 May 2019
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/05/singapore-economy-slows-decade-trade-war-bites-190521032443097.html
Official figures show Singapore's GDP expanded 1.2% year-on-year in the three months ending March 31.

Singapore's GDP growth slows to 1.3% in Q1: MTI advance estimates ~ 12 Apr 2019
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapores-gdp-growth-slows-q1-mti

11,020 were laid off in Singapore in the whole of 2018: MOM ~ 3 Feb 2019
https://www.humanresourcesonline.net/11020-were-laid-off-in-singapore-in-the-whole-of-2018-mom/

新加坡经济增速居然在东南亚排了倒数第一!以后会怎么样? ~ 27 Nov 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciBZigQiWGQ

Singapore economy grew 2.2% in Q3, full-year growth seen at 3-3.5% ~ 22 Nov 2018
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-economy-grew-2-2-q3-full-year-growth-seen-3-3-5-031142015.html
MTI announced today that the Singapore economy is expected to grow by “3.0 to 3.5%” in 2018, and by “1.5 to 3.5%” in 2019.

(https://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/articles/2018/11/22/181122_sg-q3-gdp_online.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on June 24, 2019, 04:22:31 PM
不撤回 反送中不會歇!撼動全球 港人信念戰 ~ 23 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvdwvsMjH3E

香港資本市場不斷弱化中 "金融中心地位"恐不保! “香港反送中”百萬人上街 撼動習近平的地位? ~ 23 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9r1q9KXQTGs

Hong Kong’s extradition protests: one country, two systems and a vicious circle of mistrust with Beijing ~ 22 Jun 2019
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3015492/hong-kongs-extradition-protests-one-country-two-systems-and
Scoffing in Singapore, praise in Philippines: how Asia sees Hong Kong’s extradition bill protests ~ 22 Jun 2019
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3015618/scoffing-singapore-praise-philippines-how-asia-sees-hong-kongs
In Singapore – seen by many as Hong Kong’s sister city – where protests are rare due to tough rules governing freedom of assembly, one well-known establishment figure scoffed at the protesters for having “lost all sense of reality”. Retired top diplomat Bilahari Kausikan suggested Beijing might need to get involved to quell the street protests.

(https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2019/06/24/dd9553de-940d-11e9-a6c8-8445313d8ede_image_hires_142457.JPG)

Bilahari: President Xi must act if protests in Hong Kong continue ~ 21 Jun 2019
https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2019/06/21/bilahari-president-xi-must-act-if-protests-in-hong-kong-continue/

(https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Bilahari-768x387.jpg)

Hong Kong extradition bill: this is no Singapore living in fear, this is a city ripping itself apart ~ 22 Jun 2019
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3015595/hong-kong-extradition-bill-no-singapore-living-fear-city-ripping
A picture circulating on social media of a young man who was protesting against Hong Kong’s bid to amend its extradition law, holding a placard that says “Don’t let Hong Kong be like Singapore where people live in fear”, has raised quite a few eyebrows in the island nation.

(https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2019/06/22/5ce11c9e-9428-11e9-a6c8-8445313d8ede_image_hires_155259.JPG)

逃離香港 ~ 29 May 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-8spS9BQgs

香港不是我的家 在台港人的離鄉故事 ~ 13 May 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M19tfhOcLw

贸易战暴露习近平的领导能力不足 ~ 8 May 2019
https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20190508/xi-trump-trade-war-china-leadership/

新疆人權問題爭議 引發穆斯林國家顧忌 ~ 16 Mar 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9A3gi98uYxI

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/720x405/p06ptkmn.jpg)

為做中國萬年皇帝...習近平粉飾文革 想走毛澤東老路? ~ 7 Jan 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IySLbqCuxg8

中國修憲任期沒期限後 網友戲稱習近平學袁世凱稱帝 封他為"袁二" ~ 27 Feb 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBlhaSa26fA

好莱坞影星里查.基尔:习近平是独裁者 ~ 23 Mar 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ze8hYLAARAI

“Let’s party like it’s 1793” ~ 3 May 2013
https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1229000/xi-jinping-makes-economist-cover-again-why-beijing-not

(https://cdn1.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/2013/05/03/xi-economist-covers.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 13, 2019, 11:03:30 AM
美经济学家惊讶30年过去 - 对手全飞奔 - 台北独憔悴 ~ 12 Jul 2019
https://www.enanyang.my/news/20190712/%E7%BE%8E%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E5%AD%A6%E5%AE%B6%E6%83%8A%E8%AE%B630%E5%B9%B4%E8%BF%87%E5%8E%BB-%E5%AF%B9%E6%89%8B%E5%85%A8%E9%A3%9E%E5%A5%94-%E5%8F%B0%E5%8C%97%E7%8B%AC%E6%86%94%E6%82%B4/

台北街道充斥老房子,招牌林立但混乱,而且摩托车数量惊人。

(http://www.enanyang.my/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/taipei-1-481x315.jpg)

郭台銘驚爆︰韓國瑜當選總統 蔡衍明將是國民黨主席 ~ 11 Jul 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD4KMaPWXQQ

陸客團不來真的毀了台灣的觀光? ~ 9 Jul 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLicwr_UEiA

韓國瑜喊上任後「重啟核四」、提出「六大方面改造工程」~ 3 Jul 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwkMJCR3y0E

韓國瑜上任後 市民最有感的是... ~ 13 May 2019
https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20190513000916-260407?chdtv

陸客來台回升 今年可破300萬人次 ~ 2 May 2019
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20190502000158-260309?chdtv

韓流帶動陸客團回溫 遊台灣必遊高雄 ~ 18 Apr 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGIdv3BhhIg
高雄市長韓國瑜上任後,大力推展觀光、促進兩岸和平,果然從3月開始,到高雄的陸客團明顯變多,有領隊說,每天來台陸客至少比過去增加5成,還有運將因為包車導覽,在韓市長上任的前後,收入增加一倍。

(https://images.chinatimes.com/newsphoto/2019-05-13/900/20190513000921.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on July 31, 2019, 10:45:29 AM
Zuolun bro,

I bought some Global testing at 65 cts
After it Xd
Hope I don’t die
This counter is illiquid

一个会创新低的股价还会创新低,直到它不会创新低。(理论上可以用161.8%斐波纳契回撤线作为最坏的預測。)

春夏秋冬图形 (AADD Chart Pattern)
1.  CAB
2.  TalkMed
3.  Global Testing


CAB (weekly) ~ 春夏秋冬图形 (AADD Chart Pattern) ~ 26 Jul 2019

(https://img1.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27601/27601121583f00e0a4e89d3716f4ea8b88d41785.png)

TalkMed (weekly) ~ 春夏秋冬图形 (AADD Chart Pattern) ~ 26 Jul 2019

(https://img9.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27593/2759367942ae1ee9644ac44acbdf0e280cb80aeb.png)

Global Testing (weekly) ~ 春夏秋冬图形 (AADD Chart Pattern) ~ 19 Jul 2019

(https://img1.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27569/2756977139362ee37edec9517eeb5984a29dc400.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 08, 2019, 01:42:11 PM
Stock prices of Eco World and SP Setia are likely to move down much lower due to their exposure in the U.K.

Eco World ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, TP RM0.53

Eco World closed with a spinning top @ RM0.66 (+0.005, +0.8%) with 5.06m shares done on 6 Sep 2019.

Immediate support @ RM0.625, immediate resistance @ RM0.685.

(https://img5.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27720/277205759bdfa304e3dc5edb9b9394eec58ebcb7.png)

Performance Chart ~ Malaysia Property stocks ~ 6 Sep 2019

(https://img4.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27722/2772296402ec97db9feb797a1d17f7257d9f9ec5.png)

Pound US dollar exchange rate: GBP/USD sinks as parliament suspension deemed legal ~ 6 Sep 2019
https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1174804/pound-us-dollar-exchange-rate-sinks-parliament-suspension-legal-boris-johnson-tfx
THE pound US dollar exchange rate fell by around $1.229 today as the British high court ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s five week suspension of parliament was entirely legal.

No-deal Brexit could be the ‘end of the beginning’ for the UK, research says ~ 4 Sep 2019
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/04/no-deal-brexit-could-be-the-end-of-the-beginning-for-the-uk.html
Leaving the European Union without a deal will not represent a clean break for the U.K., but rather usher in a period of prolonged and severe uncertainty for years to come, according to a new report.

Cover Story: Staying agile in an uncertain market ~ 2 Sep 2019
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cover-story-staying-agile-uncertain-market
Pound to Euro exchange rates: Sterling unstable against the Euro owing to Brexit uncertainty ~ 30 Aug 2019
https://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2019/08/pound-to-euro-exchange-rates-sterling-unstable-against-the-euro-owing-to-brexit-uncertainty/

Whatever they say about Brexit, sterling’s nosedive tells us the truth ~ 4 Aug 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/04/brexit-sterling-nosedive-falling-pound-britain
SP Setia ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, TP RM1.17

SP Setia closed with a white marubozu @ RM1.56 (+0.09, +6.1%) with 2.26m shares done on 30 Aug 2019.

Immediate support @ RM1.47, immediate resistance @ RM1.60.

(https://img5.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27705/27705565df356e49c23ea8805c73d0e2b9f87da1.png)

SP Setia ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel, interim TP RM1.55

SP Setia closed with an inverted hammer unchanged @ RM1.84 with 1.17m shares done on 9 Aug 2019.

Immediate support @ RM1.75, immediate resistance @ RM1.87.

(https://img0.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27642/276422702ad78e865b3a76e4f8a8427ede96a59e.png)

Pound to Euro exchange rates: Sterling unstable against the Euro owing to Brexit uncertainty ~ 30 Aug 2019
https://www.poundsterlingforecast.com/2019/08/pound-to-euro-exchange-rates-sterling-unstable-against-the-euro-owing-to-brexit-uncertainty/

The Euro-Dollar charts point lower and a recession in Germany "just moved one step closer" ~ 30 Aug 2019
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eurusd/11961-euro-dollar-seen-heading-lower-as-german-domestic-economy-cracks-and-inflation-slides

Battersea project contributions seen for S P Setia from FY21 ~ 16 Aug 2019
https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1574799/battersea-project-contributions-seen-s-p-setia-fy21
CGS-CIMB Research maintained “hold” on S P Setia TP lowered to RM1.90.

Investor sentiment in Battersea project still strong ~ 25 Jun 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ke7QRgaprDM

伦敦巴特西迷雾:一桩自导自演的诡异交易 ~ 2 Feb 2018
http://www.guandian.cn/blogComment/20180202/197262.html
  • 事已至此,项目很大可能将面临亏损,但马来西亚投资方为了保证巴特西发电站项目能够顺利竣工,即便成本严重超支也要继续注资,于是乎便发生了开头所说的用马来政府资金为伦敦城市更新项目兜底的奇观。
  • 另外值得一提的是,马来西亚将在2018年3-4月举行大选,当时极力支持收购巴特西发电站的纳吉布正在寻求连任总理,即便是为了当下的选票和颜面,这个项目也显得不容有失。
  • 总结来说,梳理完巴特西发电站的前世今生,我们看到整件事最大的赢家无疑是“狂褥前殖民地羊毛”的英国人,自己一分钱不出,却能让马来西亚政府心甘情愿用国家资金帮伦敦做历史建筑改建和城市再生,可谓好处占尽,不愧是“空手套白狼”方面的大师!
(http://www.guandian.cn/uploadfile6/2018/0202/20180202010920397.png)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 19, 2019, 01:01:29 PM
Malaysia seeds clouds to bring relief as haze from Indonesian forest fires chokes Southeast Asia ~ 18 Sep 2019
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3027826/malaysia-shuts-1000-schools-and-singapore-worries-about

Singapore Grand Prix: Plan in place to cope with poor air quality ~ 17 Sep 2019
https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/49732921

被指涉印尼境内烧芭 大马种植公司做出回应 ~ 14 Sep 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAqUr4SPXsg

一家大马公司涉烧芭导致烟雾,土地自卑印尼当局查封了! ~ 14 Sep 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tg8UMOIuOv8
(https://i.imgur.com/vSF90ed.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on September 25, 2019, 05:16:23 PM
英国180年旅游巨头破产,中国复星集团爆雷 ~ 25 Sep 2019
https://www.52hrtt.com/za/n/w/info/H1569320479220
创立近180年的英国旅游业巨头“Thomas Cook”22日宣告倒闭,全球超过60万名正在渡假的旅客受到冲击,2万1000多名员工失业,100万还没上路的旅客必须取消行程。
世界最古老旅行社Thomas Cook宣布破产 ~ 23 Sep 2019
https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%9C%80%E5%8F%A4%E8%80%81%E6%97%85%E8%A1%8C%E7%A4%BEthomas-cook%E5%AE%A3%E5%B8%83%E7%A0%B4%E4%BA%A7/a-50545055
60万名游客滞留、2万名员工失业:英国老牌旅行社Thomas Cook在经营178年后倒闭。中国复星集团曾率领最后的竞标,对破产的消息表示失望。

Thomas Cook破产,对复星文旅是福是祸? ~ 23 Sep 2019
http://www.forbeschina.com/business/44389
9月23日,世界知名旅行社托马斯库克(Thomas Cook)宣告进入破产清算。而持有Thomas Cook的股权的复星文旅(01992.HK)应声大跌,最终收于10.06港元,跌4.73%。

Thomas Cook shares worthless ~ 23 Sep 2019
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/thomas-cook-shares-worthless-ii509288
Sixteen months ago, an investor would have had to pay 150p for every Thomas Cook share. Last Friday 20 Sep 2019, they went as low at 2p, closing the session at 3.45p for a decline of 98.7%. The shares are now suspended from trading.

(https://media-prod.ii.co.uk/s3fs-public/2019-09/TCG%20chart.jpg)

Thomas Cook collapse hits shares of Indian company it once owned ~ 23 Sep 2019
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/thomas-cook-collapse-hits-shares-of-indian-company-it-once-owned/articleshow/71257580.cms
Thomas Cook India resorted to a communication blitz to clarify that the U.K. firm exited it 7 yrs ago. Thomas Cook Group sold its entire stake in Thomas Cook India to Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. in 2012.

(https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/img/71257581/Master.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on October 28, 2019, 10:49:11 AM
葉振棠 - 1997亞洲電視劇「我來自潮州」主題曲 : 勝利雙手創
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5lFyMS1Mh8

【凤凰大视野:香港往事】黑潮,三十年逃港风波纪事 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZYJP8RjzrM

【凤凰大视野:香港往事】 黑潮,三十年逃港风波纪事 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpwjZsq0FOI

39死偷渡慘案真假消息,「叛國者」5大痛楚,與香港有關的偷渡輪迴 ~ 27 Oct 2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wblHUu7IcUc

(https://i.imgur.com/njLvxo6.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 04, 2019, 02:04:52 PM
葉振棠 - 1997亞洲電視劇「我來自潮州」主題曲 : 勝利雙手創
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5lFyMS1Mh8

葉啟田 - 愛拼才會贏
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y12_ecvVJgA

Singapore NTUC - Upturn The Downturn Song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTMMRrxx-Ug

6 indicators that offer bleak outlook for Singapore's labour market ~ 29 Oct 2019
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/labour-market/6-indicators-offer-bleak-outlook-singapores-labour-market

1. Net Employment Outlook

(https://tesuploads.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/SJC/1+labour.png)

2. Job Vacancies

(https://tesuploads.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/SJC/2+labour.png)

3. Average Monthly Earnings

(https://tesuploads.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/SJC/3+labour.png)

4. Unemployment Rates

(https://tesuploads.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/SJC/4+labour.png)

5. Retrenchments

(https://tesuploads.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/SJC/5+labour.png)

6. Re-Entry Duration

(https://tesuploads.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/SJC/6+labour.png)

Singapore faces rising tide of bad debt with record bonds maturing ~ 27 Aug 2019
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/capital/singapore-economy/singapore-faces-rising-tide-bad-debt-record-bonds-maturing
  • Growth forecast cut to almost zero, recession fears loom.
  • Local currency bonds face record S$12 billion maturing in 2020.
(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iBDLYSA4sEBo/v4/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/620x-1.png)

A recession in Singapore likely to impact Johor as well ~ 20 Aug 2019
https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2019/08/20/a-recession-in-singapore-likely-to-impact-johor-as-well
  • Johor looks likely to be affected by Singapore’s slide into recession following a big drop in the republic’s economic activities in the second quarter of the year.
  • “The first to go – should businesses in Singapore downsize their operations – will be the thousands of Malaysians who live here but work there."
  • “If their jobs are not secure, they will face problems servicing bank loans as many of them have bought houses here especially in the Iskandar Malaysia region.”
(https://apicms.thestar.com.my/uploads/images/2019/08/20/223173.jpg)

Time to exorcise the ghosts of 97/98 and unleash the animal spirits of the private sector ~ 19 Aug 2019
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cover-story-time-exorcise-ghosts-9798
Consumption has grown strongly since 2008, but with debt, not rising incomes
  • Private consumption, in particular, has grown well above GDP growth rates since 2008 under the stewardship of former prime minister Najib Razak.
  • In the 10 years under his leadership, Malaysia’s economic growth was super-charged by private consumption and, to a lesser extent, government spending. Between 2008 and 2018, consumption grew at a CAGR of 7.3% on average, while government spending expanded at an average compound rate of 5.1%. As a result, consumption as a percentage of GDP rose from 44.7% to 57.3% over the same period.
  • Households went on a debt-fuelled spending binge. Household debt-to-GDP rose from 63.9% in 2008 to as high as 89.1% in 2015 before Bank Negara tightened credit requirements to contain indebtedness.
  • The economy grew at a CAGR of 4.7% on average in the past decade — pushed up by the consumption binge that was paid for with debt.
  • Without this spending surge, if we assume a constant consumption to GDP ratio of 44.7% (as it was in 2008), Malaysia’s GDP growth would have been only 2% on average (taking into account the actual government spending, investments and net exports) — instead of the reported 4.7%.
(https://assets.theedgemarkets.com/pictures/CoverChart_3_TEM1280_theedgemarkets.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on November 30, 2019, 10:02:57 AM
FBMKLCI ~ Trading in a downward sloping channel

FBMKLCI closed with a black marubozu @ 1,561.74 (-22.03, -1.4%) on 29 Nov 2019.

Immediate support @ 1,548, strong resistance @ 1,572.

(https://img7.uploadhouse.com/fileuploads/27978/27978217304473932fe6e0baa33b2a12c1af7c52.png)

Malaysian stocks get cheaper by the day but few want to buy ~ 18 Nov 2019
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/malaysian-stocks-cheaper-day-few-203000486.html
Global funds have yanked more than US$2 billion from Malaysian stocks in 2019, the biggest outflow among emerging Asian equity markets. More than a year after Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad took office pledging to boost the stock market, investors have been left underwhelmed by a cut in public spending, a lackluster ringgit and question marks over the succession of power.

(https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/591fb713662e6cf99f866b84a1b5d6f6)

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iVPejX61Hoag/v0/-1x-1.png)

We are already in a bear market - we just can't admit it yet ~ 19 Dec 2018
http://www.pelhamblueassetmanagement.com/2018/12/we-are-already-in-a-bear-market.html
(https://consequenceofsound.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/thom-yorke-bear.gif)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 13, 2020, 11:58:55 AM
歷史性大選後,什麼力量能讓台灣走出亡國感 ~ 13 Jan 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdXW7cV9tZs

不可懈怠!蔡英文連任後要做這幾件事;“中共國瑜黨”恐捲土重來,台灣愛國者任重道遠! ~ 13 Jan 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISfmThmwe0c

不可懈怠!蔡英文連任後要做這幾件事;“中共國瑜黨”恐捲土重來,台灣愛國者任重道遠! ~ 13 Jan 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISfmThmwe0c

台湾:2020大选,如何走出“亡国感”? ~ 6 Jan 2020
https://www.marxist.com/taiwan-the-2020-election-and-the-way-out-of-the-national-doom-cn-simplified.htm

詹德拉·穆扎法尔:中国是新的帝国主义国家吗? ~ 15 Nov 2018
https://www.guancha.cn/ZhanDeLa-MuZhaFaEr/2018_11_15_479706.shtml

Xi JinPing's anti-corruption campaign: The hidden motives of a Modern-Day Mao
https://www.fpri.org/article/2018/08/xi-jinpings-anti-corruption-campaign-the-hidden-motives-of-a-modern-day-mao/

Chinese netizens compare Xi's rule to Qing Dynasty ~ 12 Mar 2018
Chinese netizens decry Xi's removal of term limits as a return to the Qing Dynasty.

Chinese president Xi Jinping emperor photo lands The Economist in hot water ~ 7 May 2013
https://bambooinnovator.com/2013/05/07/chinese-president-xi-jinping-emperor-photo-lands-the-economist-in-hot-water/
The article, which outlines the difficulties Xi faces in realizing his dream of unifying a diverse and growing China, seems to have hit a nerve with the Communist Party, as The Economist’s website was blocked in the country shortly after its publication. Detractors of Xi’s regime have said online that his “China dream” and emperor’s robe are both figments of the imagination. Despite calls for more freedom and fairness, the Chinese government continues to target free speech and rights activists and remains plagued by official excess and corruption, netizens said.

(https://bambooinnovator.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/xijinpingemperor-161247_copy1.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 13, 2020, 12:10:56 PM
1,000億人民幣爆雷與6、8、10%投資回報率的涵義 ~ 11 Jan 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n09R7F8Ftms

普顿外汇平台(PTFX)爆雷,百万人被坑千亿 ~ 8 Jan 2020
https://www.com21.com/news/8251.html

(https://img.soundofhope.org/2020-01/999.jpg)

超1200亿债券"暴雷",最危险的29只个股 ~ 2 Dec 2019
http://www.sohu.com/na/357924836_115124

(http://5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com/images/20191202/faefc2a703f949cb96642a52443e6c38.jpeg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on January 26, 2020, 11:19:05 AM
Train to Busan 尸杀列车
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFzJAA_QgHs

Disaster zone: Coronavirus leaves Wuhan a ‘zombieland’ with people collapsing in streets and medics patrolling in hazmat suits
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10808633/coronavirus-wuhan-zombieland/

China coronavirus a 'black swan' event, strategist says ~ 25 Jan 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lswF4hWQZ5U

Chinese nurse reveals the truth about coronavirus ~ 25 Jan 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR9CJKKTPAg

Hear from residents inside the sealed-off city off Wuhan, China ~ 25 Jan 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDAbEWrvYqY

Coronavirus response highlights flaws in the way China’s bureaucracy handles a crisis ~ 25 Jan 2020
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3047606/coronavirus-response-highlights-flaws-way-chinas-bureaucracy
大瘟疫是改朝換代的前奏 ~ 25 Jan 2020
https://www.soundofhope.org/post/336238?lang=b5

(https://img.soundofhope.org/2020-01/dawenyi_2020-02-25.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on February 02, 2020, 10:41:02 AM
China’s yuan tumble past 7 may see less disruption this time ~ 31 Jan 2020
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-yuan-tumble-past-7-may-see-less-disruption-this-time-1.1382017

(https://media.zenfs.com/en/bloomberg_markets_842/61ad53a30d723c5253a9059431dfbc48)

Coronavirus outbreak: what’s next? ~ 31 Jan 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9

(https://media.nature.com/lw800/magazine-assets/d41586-020-00236-9/d41586-020-00236-9_17600856.jpg)

‘No Chinese allowed’: Racism and fear are now spreading along with the coronavirus ~ 30 Jan 2020
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-chinese-allowed-racism-and-fear-are-now-spreading-along-with-the-coronavirus-2020-01-29
“As an east Asian I can’t help but feel more and more uncomfortable,” added Phan, a British citizen. “On the bus to work last week, as I sat down, the man next to me immediately scrambled to gather his stuff and stood up to avoid sitting next to me.”

New coronavirus spreads as readily as 1918 Spanish flu and probably originated in bats ~ 29 Jan 2020
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-29/china-coronavirus-china-likely-originated-in-bats

(https://ca-times.brightspotcdn.com/dims4/default/dc2bdaf/2147483647/strip/true/crop/4809x3023+0+0/resize/840x528!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcalifornia-times-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe4%2Fde%2F30663f2a4a16b51034dee4728f9b%2Fhttps-delivery.gettyimages.com%2Fdownloads%2F1197353972.jpg)

刘伯温预言大劫来临?十愁难过猪鼠年 ~ 21 Jan 2020
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/01/21/a102757300.html
刘伯温看到大劫难发生在猪、鼠年间。巧合的是,2019年和2020年正是猪、鼠年,中国爆发了一连串的瘟疫,包括非洲猪瘟、鼠疫、武汉肺炎等疫情,扎堆来到中国大地  。

刘伯温碑记中记载了即将到来的大劫难,以及如何破解。玄奇的是,这预言被隐藏了几百年后,在一场地震中被震出,几年前才流传于民间。内容如下:

天有眼,地有眼,人人都有一双眼,
天也翻,地也翻,逍遥自在乐无边。
贫者一万留一千,富者一万留二三,
贫富若不回心转,看看死期在眼前。

平地无有五谷种,谨防四野绝人烟,
若问瘟疫何时现,但看九冬十月间。
行善之人得一见,作恶之人不得观,
世上有人行大善,免遭此劫不上算。

还有十愁在眼前:

一愁天下乱纷纷,二愁东西饿死人,
三愁湖广遭大难,四愁各省起狼烟,
五愁人民不安然,六愁九冬十月间,
七愁有饭无人食,八愁有人无衣穿,
九愁尸体无人捡,十愁难过猪鼠年。

若得过了大劫年,才算世间不老仙,
就是铜打铁罗汉,难过七月初一十三,
任你金刚铁罗汉,除非善乃能保全,
谨防人人艰难过,关过天番龙蛇年。

幼儿好似朱洪武,四川更比汉中苦,
大狮吼如雷,胜过悼百虎,
犀牛现出尾,平地遇猛若,
若问大平年,架桥迎新主,
上元甲子到,人人哈哈笑,
问他笑什么?迎接新地主,
上管三尺日,夜无盗贼难,
虽是谋为主,主坐中央土,

人民喊真主:

银钱是个宝,看破用不了,
果然是个宝,地下裂不倒,
七人一路走,引诱进了口,
三点加一勾,八王二十口,
人人喜笑,个个平安。


(https://i.ntdtv.com/assets/uploads/2019/11/p8400631a997837652-600x338.jpg)
Title: Re: Dark Cloud Over Brexit
Post by: zuolun on March 03, 2020, 12:49:32 PM
8 things you need to know about China’s economy
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/8-facts-about-chinas-economy/

Virus plunging economy into worst downturn since 2009, OECD warns ~ 3 Mar 2020
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/virus-plunging-economy-worst-downturn-2009-oecd-warns-200302205312855.html

How coronavirus fear is spreading and putting trips in limbo ~ 2 Mar 2020
https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/03/02/coronavirus-travel-italy-japan-asia-trip-plans-in-limbo/4891579002/

Macao's casino stocks still have a lot to lose as coronavirus spreads ~ 2 Mar 2020
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/02/asian-casino-stocks-have-a-lot-to-lose-as-coronavi.aspx

When will Disney World and Disneyland feel the Coronavirus pinch? ~ 2 Mar 2020
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/03/02/when-will-disney-world-and-disneyland-feel-the-cor.aspx
Tourism is the reason coronavirus has spread so quickly outside of Wuhan, where it originated.

How the coronavirus outbreak is affecting the global economy ~ 1 Mar 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8fT8z9lkrM

Japan’s car industry struggles to cope in wake of coronavirus outbreak ~ 29 Feb 2020
https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlyon/2020/02/29/japans-car-industry-struggles-to-cope-in-wake-of-coronavirus-outbreak

Coronavirus crisis: at this rate, how is China’s economy going to recover lost ground? ~ 27 Feb 2020
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3052410/coronavirus-crisis-rate-how-chinas-economy-going-recover-lost

We need a cheap way to diagnose coronavirus ~ 26 Feb 2020
https://hbr.org/2020/02/we-need-a-cheap-way-to-diagnose-coronavirus

SIA cancelled over 3,000 flights and cut down in-flight service ~ 25 Feb 2020
https://samchui.com/2020/02/25/singapore-airlines-cancelled-over-3000-flights-cut-down-in-flight-service/#.Xl3da6gzbIU

How Covid-19 has profoundly infected the global supply chain ~ 25 Feb 2020
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4326914-how-covidminus-19-profoundly-infected-global-supply-chain

Covid-19 is spreading through the auto industry ~ 21 Feb 2020
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cru-covid-19-is-spreading-through-the-auto-industry-301008604.html

The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the global auto parts supply chain ~ 18 Feb 2020
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/the-impact-of-the-covid-19-outbreak-on-the-global-auto-parts-12444290
The global auto industry is powered by car parts made in China. The closure of many of its major factories due to the COVID-19 virus is causing serious disruption to global supply chains.

Coronavirus: Singapore IRs hit by drop in flow of visitors to casinos and shops ~ 17 Feb 2020
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/spore-irs-hit-by-drop-in-flow-of-visitors-to-casinos-and-shops
Visitors to RWS casino down by 70%; shops at both IRs report drop in sales by up to 50%.

(https://www.straitstimes.com/sites/default/files/styles/article_pictrure_780x520_/public/articles/2020/02/17/wh_33096199_100320.jpg)

Singapore tourism to take 'big' hit ~ 12 Feb 2020
https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1855654/singapore-tourism-to-take-big-hit
STB expects 25-30% decline in arrivals.

(https://static.bangkokpost.com/media/content/dcx/2020/02/12/3523054.jpg)

Coronavirus spread triggers economic downturn fears ~ 27 Feb 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aZr79wOjMpc

Coronavirus exposed America's heavy reliance on China for medicines ~ 27 Feb 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9EWhnFu2Xs
Exposing the risks of America’s dependence on China for medicine. What danger it would bring to the American public if the coronavirus epidemic continues for an extensive period of time; and if such dominance in medicine could be weaponized by the Chinese government after all?

Could China's coronavirus outbreak hurt the global drug industry? ~ 26 Feb 2020
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/china-coronavirus-outbreak-hurt-global-drug-industry-200220051840577.html

(https://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/imagecache/mbdxxlarge/mritems/Images/2020/2/20/2ccf155507c742e595d8797bf6fa7276_18.jpg)

Romney: Trump administration ‘substantially’ unprepared for coronavirus outbreak ~ 25 Feb 2020
https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/02/25/sen-mitt-romney-trump/

Coronavirus: Paracetamol prices rise by 40% amid outbreak of deadly virus ~ 18 Feb 2020
https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/pharma/coronavirus-paracetamol-prices-rise-by-40-amid-outbreak-of-deadly-virus/story/396383.html

(https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/btmt/images/stories/paracetamol_acetaminophen_500_mg_pills_660_180220102948.jpg)

All our drugs to treat the coronavirus depend on Chinese suppliers ~ 17 Feb 2020
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/all-our-drugs-to-treat-the-coronavirus-depend-on-chinese-suppliers/

(https://2qkhyt1u78lw1ll02a1kxrzq-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/corona-virus.jpg)