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Bursa Malaysia => Equities => Topic started by: king on July 09, 2016, 02:52:31 PM

Title: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 09, 2016, 02:52:31 PM



2016-07-04 07:00
麦莫比:现是投资好时机
马币、泰铢、印尼盾沦陷,中国经济放缓,加上原产品价格大挫,种种的因素,只能说从2014年开始,新兴市场发展似乎已失去了昔日的光芒。美国说升息,资金就大举从发展中国家流出,在全球经济存在许多不确定性因素下,一些最保险的资产变成投资者最青睐的选择。

麦莫比的投资组合:70%在股市,15%在固定收入市场,5%在黄金,其余的在房地产。
马币、泰铢、印尼盾沦陷,中国经济放缓,加上原产品价格大挫,种种的因素,只能说从2014年开始,新兴市场发展似乎已失去了昔日的光芒。

广告

美国说升息,资金就大举从发展中国家流出,在全球经济存在许多不确定性因素下,一些最保险的资产变成投资者最青睐的选择。

对于被别人看淡,进而撤离所有资金的新兴市场,在因发掘此市场潜能,而被冠上“新兴市场教父”美誉的麦莫比眼中,又是如何?新兴市场,还值得关注吗?

麦莫比
盘点新兴市场

在过去的一年里,发展中国家差强人意,受美国收水影响,资金都在撤离新兴市场。数据显示,除了发生次贷风暴时,外资在过去10年都在买入发展中市场,但打从2013年中至今,外资都在流失。

热钱逃窜,首当其冲的非股市莫属。在2015年里,新兴市场股市大挫,印尼、新加坡及台湾的股市皆跌近10%,泰国及大马更是当中表现最糟糕的两个市场,分别跌24%及20%。

广告

除了股市以外,亚洲汇市表现也非常逊色。

新元兑美元贬高于6.0%、泰国跌近9%,跌势最惨的莫过于印尼及大马,分别跌10%及18%。

当然,除了外资撤离以外,新兴市场的经济基本面也出现让人担心的问题。韩国僵尸企业不断增加、泰国政治动乱、中国经济放缓,这只是当中的一些问题,在大马方面,油价走跌令市场担心政府是否能保赤,一马发展公司(1MDB)相关的政治丑闻也使投资者丧失信心。

“现为最佳的投资时机”

虽然发展中市场问题林林种种,但贵为新兴市场教父,麦莫比还是认为,发展中市场仍非常具潜力。

财务谘询系列是联昌银行为高级客户提供的免费讲座,在“第100场财务谘询系列”大会上,麦莫比表示:“目前市场非常不看好发展中市场,但这正是最佳的时机。”

就此一言,表示麦莫比仍非常看好发展中国家,他也以数据点出,发展中市场在过去的28年里,共有17年股市表现超越已发展市场。

他认为,现在正是投资发展中国家的最好时机,他举例,在1987年,他刚开始投资发展中国家时,全球只有6个市场能让外资直接投资,分别是墨西哥、香港、菲律宾、泰国、大马及印尼。随着世界各地倾向市场自由化,截至去年12月可投资的发展中市场已经增加至70多个,覆盖整个中美洲、南美洲、非洲、中东及整个亚洲。

亚洲经济成长胜全球

他认为,发展中市场仍然是全球经济发展引擎,中国继续高速扩展,而印度更是经济成长速度最快的一个。

数据显示,在2016年,亚洲的整体经济发展速度为5.7%,高于全球平均的2.8%。

说实在,亚洲的高速发展确实拉高了全球经济发展,毕竟美国、欧洲及日本的经济发展速度都低于平均,分别为2.5%、1.7%及1.2%。

此外,一些发展中国家如印度、印尼及泰国政府也正改革开放,虽然速度比预期慢,但这都意味着发展中市场将变得更为亲商,同时,这些国家也将投入大笔资产发展基建。

除了这些国家本身的潜能以外,大众商品价格走跌也对这些市场利好。

4亚洲国家最具潜能

麦莫比在演讲当中,特别点出了4个国家,分别是印度、中国、印尼及泰国,这些国家都是麦莫比认为最具潜能的典范。

印度发展速度最快

就印度上,麦莫比下的笔墨不多,但从投资组合可见,麦莫比对印度情有独钟,在他的投资组合当中,比重最大的两家公司就来自印度,分别是摩哆车生产商BAJAJ控股及印度最大集团达达集团旗下的达达化学,分别占总投资组合的8及5%。

他说:“印度是全亚洲经济发展速度最快的国家,加上净外资投资蓬勃、政府效率也有所提升,是个可期的市场。”

泰国地理位置最佳

印度之外,泰国也是麦莫比非常看好的市场,泰国是东盟经济体主要成员,能因东盟经济成长获利。

根据东盟官网,在2007至2014年间,东盟经济已翻倍成长,人均收入也成长76%,在全球,东盟是世界第7大经济体。

除此之外,东盟是全球第三大人口的经济体,人口高于东盟的只有中国及印度,就连由28国联合组成的欧盟人口也少于东盟。

麦莫比认为,在充满潜能的东盟内,泰国拥有更佳的地理位置。该国位于柬埔寨、辽国、缅甸及越南的边境,在跨境投资及贸易上占尽优势。

根据东盟官网,截至2014年,东盟的总贸易量为2兆5000亿美元,当中的24%源自于东盟内部贸易。

此外,泰国也有再分配政策,这能提高乡下人口的人均收入,增强消费。

虽然在2015年,基建发展无大进展,但预期在今年内,靠基建投资、旅游业及出口支撑,泰国能重拾成长动力。

麦莫比表示,以行业而言,泰国在基建上拥有相当的的发展潜能,泰国政府在过去2012至2015年之间,均保持基建投资开销,但预计在今年,基建投资成本将增加。

此外,相对于东盟的年轻人口,泰国是东盟第一个面临人口老化的国家。到2040年时,泰国25%人口将会高于65岁,但这对麦莫比而言不是问题。麦莫比表示:“人口老化表示对保健需求将提升,我看好泰国保健业。”

大马一马影响短暂
看好消费和油气

麦莫比演说涵盖的地域之广,但在演说当中,他鲜少,近乎不曾提起大马。

从一星期前拜访的中国,到一个月前旅游中美洲,麦莫比都会用自己的视野诠释一个地方的经济及潜能,但除了在说到货币时,稍微提起马币以外,在谈论市场潜能等问题时,麦莫比压根儿忘了他是踏在大马的土地上演说。

不过,在近期写给投资者的通讯录上,麦莫比表示,大马经济虽然放缓,但仍以很好的速度成长,一马发展公司(1MDB)及其他政治纠纷不会对大马造成长期影响。

麦莫比表示,大马已从石油净出口国变成净进口国,油价走跌对大马不造成大影响,此外,因印度及中国对原棕油需求仍强,原棕油价格不会长期走弱。

他也表示:“服务占大马经济的一大块,对我而言,这表示市场已趋向成熟。虽然经济走缓,但仍以蓬勃速度发展。”

“参考其他指标,家债为89%、政府债务占国内发展总值的54%,这对一些观察者而言或显得很高(高于亚洲金融风暴时),但仍比美国低。贸易盈余良好及外汇储备仍处于健康水平。”

他认为,大马的人口结构对前景利好,年轻人口正值产能最大的时候,这能帮助消费产品及旅游业发展。

麦莫比也表示:“如果经济基本面没任何风暴的信号,政治丑闻就是造成外资撤离大马的主要原因。”

他认为,一马发展公司及相关的政治丑闻持续影响投资者情绪及信心,但外资流失通常都是短暂的。

“负面新闻通常都影响消费者情绪,但我们认为,市场过度反应正是机会——若我们找到长期复苏的原因。”

“在今日的大马,我们觉得有一些行业特别吸引,包括综合性油气公司及消费业。”

印尼东盟最大经济体

说到东盟,就不能不提及印尼,印尼,也是麦莫比特别点出的市场之一。

在东盟内,印尼是最大的国家。由1万7508个岛屿组成的千岛国,国土涵盖190万平方公里,相等于6个大马,2700多个新加坡。

印尼也是东盟最大经济体,国内生产总值近9000亿令吉,如此庞大的经济体仍有非常大的发展潜能。

邓普顿投资估计,印尼经济在2016及17年仍能以每年高于5%的速度成长,同时,该国的宏观经济条件也变得更稳健,截至5月外汇储备共有1036亿美元,而国债对国内生产总值比例也从2000年时的87.43%高峰,跌至15年的27%。

对于一个拥有近乎2亿5000万人口的国家,内需自然是市场专注的重点。印尼拥有非常年轻的人口结构,平均只有27.7岁。

根据Euromonitor国际,印尼的中产阶级人口数量位居全球第四,共1730万人,第一为中国1亿1200万人、接着是印度7400万人及美国2530万人,而印尼的家债也只有36.5%,庞大的中产收入结成能支持消费。

此外,零散的1万7508个岛屿及世界闻名的堵车大城雅加达,基建对于印尼而言仍有相当大的发展空间。

虽说如此,但投资印尼还是存有风险,贵为全球最大原棕油出产国,除原棕油以外煤炭及天然气也对该国经济至关紧要,此外,印尼的官僚制度及贪污问题也阻碍前进。

中国外汇储备最充裕

刚结束中国实地考察的麦莫比表示:“中国仍然是最主要的投资国家。”

他认为,虽然中国经济放缓,但还是抛离美国,此外,中国的外汇储备也相当充裕,韩国、香港、巴西、印度、俄罗斯加上台湾都不如一个中国,服务领域占国内生产总值比率在2013年超越制造业,这对麦莫比而言都是好迹象。

不如市场般的悲观,麦莫比认为,中国在基建及房市上仍有相当大的潜能,他说:“很多人都说中国房市会出现泡沫,但我不那么认为,我觉得中国还有建筑及产业的发展可能性。”

除此之外,中国仍然有相当大的发展空间,根据世界银行数据,截至2014年中国共有54%人口住在城市里,相比其他发展国,人口移动可能性仍相当高。

麦莫比表示,在人口移动下,中国基建就变得很重要,大堵车、捷运过份拥挤都是中国需要靠基建改善的问题。

根据经济合作与发展组织(OECD),在2013年,伦敦拥有最多的铁路设施,接下来是巴黎、首尔及东京,相比起这些大城市,人口更多的上海、广州、北京及深圳拥有更少的铁路设施。

除了中国境内的基建计划,麦莫比认为,中国的一带一路计划将会是撼动亚洲基建市场的一个重大计划,推动亚洲的发展。

最完美投资组合?

在演说会场上,有公众提问,什么样的投资组合才是最完美的,麦莫比认为,投资因人而异,但他能跟大家分享,他本身的投资组合。

“70%在股市,15%在固定收入市场,5%在黄金,其余的在房地产。”

“噢,还有,所谓的股市并不是直接买入一家公司的股权,而是买基金。”

投资必须多元化

他认为,这样的投资组合可以抵挡风险,如美国升息及英国脱欧,但他强调,还是得不时调整投资组合,投资,不是一劳永逸的事情。

他强调,投资必须要多元化,不能把所有钱都放在同一个篮子,而所谓的多元化,就是要在地域上多元。

他说:“世界上每个市场都有潜力成为最佳表现的股市,同时,世界上也没有一个市场能永远表现最佳。”

“你知道从年初至今表现最好的股市在哪里吗?”

“不是任何发达市场,而是巴西,如果你买卖股票都只专注在一个国家,那你就错失了一个大好机会。”

在麦莫比的投资组合当中,10大持有的公司分别都集中在印度、韩国、香港,只有一家在台湾,由此可见,麦莫比较为注重的公司都集中在一些已发展至有相当程度,或是人口相当大的国家。

结语:

虽然在过去的两年内,新兴市场表现逊色,但麦莫比仍认为,发展中国家仍然有很大的发展潜能,只要看好公司,得到的收益能超越发达市场。

无论是中国、印度,甚至大马,在麦莫比眼中,这都是非常具吸引力的市场,至于能不能在这些市场投资获利,就得看各自的眼光了。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧红人馆‧文:陈林德‧2016.07.03
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: GanSoon on July 09, 2016, 03:19:55 PM
FBM KLCI erased just 1.68 points to 1,644.54 from last Friday's 1,646.22......
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 10, 2016, 07:59:10 AM



Friday, 8 July 2016 | MYT 10:07 AM
Maybank Research positive on brewers, neutral on consumer sector






 Prego

 
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KUALA LUMPUR: Maybank Investment Bank (IB) Research is Neutral on the Malaysian consumer sector but is positive on the brewers, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd (Carlsberg) and Heineken Malaysia Bhd (Heineken).

“While we remain cautious of the broader market on still weak consumer sentiment, we take comfort in managements’ continuous focus on cost management which should help support earnings growth in the near term,” it said in a note on Friday.

While earnings growth is likely to be in the single-digit, the research house said forecasted dividend yields remained decent at 5.6% or 5.4% for Carlsberg and Heineken and this should provide support to share prices.

“Moreover, following the recent adjustment of excise taxes in March 2016 for the brewers, we believe regulatory risks have been reduced slightly, implying less downside risk to earnings for now,” it added.

For Carlsberg, Maybank Research maintained its Buy call and earnings forecast and it raised its target price to RM14.70 from RM14.20.

It also maintained its Buy call and earnings forecast for Heineken but raised its target price to RM17.50 from RM15.20.

“Between the two brewers, we prefer Carlsberg for its long-term growth prospects (Singapore export market). Exposure to the Singapore market also serves as a natural hedge should the US dollar strengthen against the ringgit,” it said.

On the tobacco industry, the research house says it was negatively impacted, with a 30% on-year fall in the first quarter of the yeat, following the surprise excise tax hike of about 40% in November 2015.

“Malaysia has been part of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) since 2005, hence, we feel regulatory risks persist for the sector.

“Malaysia’s excise taxes now account for about 50% of retail price and this suggests upside for more excise taxes.

“However, following the shock to industry volumes post the recent excise hike, we feel that an excise tax freeze might be a possibility,” it said.

On the government’s move to extend the Price Control and Anti-Profiteering Act (PC&APA) until Dec 31, 2016, the research house noted that companies were allowed to increase prices to maintain margins.

“While it may seem that companies are less flexible to adjust prices of products and merchandise for a while longer, we note that companies are allowed to increase prices to maintain margins.

“For example, higher selling prices of goods or services are justified if they are to maintain margins,” it said.

On the minimum wage hike effective July 1, 2016, Maybank Research said 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings Bhd could relatively be impacted more as the majority (about 75%) of its total staff force of 12,000 are paid below the new minimum wage.

“In the near term, 7-Eleven Malaysia would have to make some price adjustments on merchandise to help cushion the impact.

“In the longer term however, since this is also an industry wide issue, we expect it and its other peers to pass through the higher staff costs through higher merchandise price,” the research house said.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: The-Keyman on July 10, 2016, 08:30:29 AM
Bank analysts say higher yields make emerging markets stocks attractive post-Brexit

The market wobbles since the Brexit vote offered a buy signal for emerging markets (EM) stocks, some analysts said.

And the finger was being pointed squarely at the negative yields on developed markets bonds.

Following the turmoil of the U.K.'s vote to exit the European Union (EU), the combined value of bonds with negative yields jumped to $11.7 trillion, according to a Fitch Ratings report on June 29, marking a 12.5 percent increase since the end of May.

As the Brexit turmoil sent investors fleeing to safe-haven sovereign debt, Japanese bonds maturing in 40 years yielded less than 0.10 percent, while investors paid for the privilege of lending short-term money to Spain and Italy, countries where fiscal profligacy had sparked a crisis only a few years ago.

That made emerging markets equities look good by comparison, analysts said.

"While yields in emerging markets have also come down, they remain considerably higher than anything available in developed markets, and in quite a few cases are rather convincing from a risk-reward perspective," Taimur Baig, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report titled, "Brexit's loss could be EM's gain," on July 1.

"Economies like Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey have their economic, structural, and political issues, but their relative attractiveness is considerable in this negative yield environment," he said.

"These economies will, in all likelihood, deliver higher nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates than their developed market counterparts, which should manifest in higher revenue and profit growth, making a strong case for their equity markets."

That view was echoed by JPMorgan.

"In an emerging market context, you've had commodity stocks absolutely hammered, energy stocks absolutely hammered, exporters absolutely hammered. You have expectations that are very low and market positioning that is very underweight emerging market equities to begin with," James Sullivan, head of Asia-Pacific equities research at JPMorgan, told reporters on June 29. "Then you add into that the overall macro perspective from a rate perspective."

He noted that there were 11 emerging markets where JPMorgan expected significant rate cuts, compared with many developed markets where central banks effectively were no longer able to use interest rates as tools.

 That's why Sullivan was positive on yield-oriented emerging market stocks such as telecommunications, utilities and real-estate investment trusts (REITs).

"If you're in a low growth environment and people are cutting rates, then yield outperforms," he said.

Others were also putting in their two-bits in favor of emerging markets.

Mark Jolley, equity strategist at CCB International Securities, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday that negative interest rate policies in Japan and Europe were set to continue driving fund flows into emering markets and peripheral developed markets such as Australia.

"Australia doesn't look that great at the moment, emerging markets don't look that great, but relative to these places which are offering negative yield, they look quite good so I think you'll continue to see people buying that market for yield," Jolley said.

Nomura was also more positive on emerging markets in the wake of the Brexit vote, upgrading Southeast Asian markets as a result.

"In a post-Brexit environment where we expect greater policy accommodation (from the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and local central banks), ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) should thus continue to outperform," the bank's analysts said in a note on July 1.

"We expect a period of inflows on the back of lower return expectations in Europe and Japan. Within Asia, Asean countries have among the lowest trade linkages and stocks markets' revenue exposure to Europe," it added.

Nomura raised its recommendation on Malaysia to overweight and recommended Indonesia as its "top overweight" in the region.

To be sure, the pivot toward emerging markets wasn't absolute. Deutsche Bank's Baig, for one, said he was cautious on emerging Europe because the region was likely to be affected by Brexit fallout due to strong trade and financial ties to the European Union.

And Goldman Sachs didn't appear to be fully convinced, cutting its target for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index in a note dated July 1. Goldman set its index targets at 395, 400 and 430 on a three-, six- and 12-month basis, down from 420, 420 and 425 previously.

While Goldman estimated that Asia's economic growth would only take a hit of about 10 basis point from the Brexit, it noted that "second-order" impacts, such as greater uncertainty weighing domestic spending, could further shave growth in the region.

That was likely to weigh on markets in Asia, the bank added.

"Regional equity markets have historically been closely correlated with those in Europe," it said, estimating the downside risk from a contraction in risk appetite could be 5-10 percent reduction in value for Asia's stock markets.

 :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 11, 2016, 09:57:12 AM



Fund Flow
Foreign investors bought RM93.5 million Malaysian equity last, says MIDF Research
By Surin Murugiah / theedgemarkets.com   | July 11, 2016 : 9:40 AM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (July 11): Foreign tide finally returned to Bursa after 10 successive weeks of selling, though only marginally, according to MIDF Research.

In his weekly fund flow report today, MIDF Research head Zulkifli Hamzah said foreigners turned net buyers last week despite the short trading week.

Bursa was closed on Wednesday and Thursday for Eid al-Fitr festival.

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Zulkifli said that over the three trading days, foreign investors on net purchased RM93.5 million on Bursa, after a negligible RM1.4 million selling the week prior.

He said the estimates are based on transactions in the open market which excluded off market deals.

“We note that the buying momentum from the second half of the preceding week was carried forward as trading commenced on Monday, in which foreigners loaded up RM168.8 million.
 
“It was the third highest daily buying since April 1 this year.
 
“However, the buying momentum halted on the eve of the two-day holiday, in which foreign investors reduced their holding marginally by RM8.3 million during the morning session,” he said.
 
Bursa was closed early that day by noon.
 
Zulkifli said foreign selling resumed when Bursa reopened on Friday, as foreigners sold another RM67 million.
 
“Last week’s foreign net buying has effectively lifted the cumulative net foreign fund flow thus far this year into shares listed on Bursa from the negative territory.
 
“As of last Friday, the year-to-date cumulative flow into Bursa amounted to an estimated RM58.4 million, up from RM35.1 million the week prior.
 
“In retrospect, foreigners had offloaded RM19.5 billion and RM6.9 billion in 2015 and 2014 respectively,” he said.
 
Zulkifli said despite the intermittent trading days last week, foreign participation rate managed to edge up to RM906.5 million from prior week’s RM811.7 million.
 
He said it was the first time it rose above the RM900 million level after one month of moderate trading at less than RM900 million.
 
Zulkifli said local institution sold RM87 million on Bursa last week,
their first net selling in 11 weeks.
 
“Meanwhile, its participation rate declined further to RM1.41 billion from prior week’s RM1.76 billion, amid the short trading week.
 
“Retail buyers continued to be net sellers for the third week in a row. They sold marginally at RM6.5 million. Meanwhile, their participation rate slowed down to RM384.8 million,” he said.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 11, 2016, 08:27:04 PM



财经  2016年07月11日
美日飆高 马股重现生气 第3季走势仍无看头

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美日飆高 马股重现生气 第3季走势仍无看头
日本参议院选举执政党大胜,日股飆高3.98%,收报15708.82点。

(吉隆坡11日讯)美国週五交出优于预期的就业数据,推高美股,加上,日本参议院选举执政党大胜,日股飆高,让过去一周因佳节期间交投淡静的马股,今日恢復生气,不过,分析员普遍认为,马股第3季仍无看头

国6月份就业数据远较预期佳,美股上週五以接近歷史新高水平闭市。亚洲股市週一大好,日股週一走高3.98%,韩国、台湾香港股市均升1%以上。

日本参议院选举中,执政党自民党连同盟友公明党贏得超过改选后过半数议席,首相安倍晋三擬改组內阁,並最快8月上旬决定改组方针,传首要刺激经济,日股向上走,日经平均指数闭市升601.84点或3.98%,收报15708.82点。

个股方面,任天堂受惠新推出的手机游戏PokemonGo受欢迎,飆22%。


马股上週因为开斋节假期而交投淡静,今日大部份投资者已经重返市场,马股儘早一度涨至1656.49点,闭市报1653.87点,上涨9.33点或0.57%。

回顾过去一个季度,在全球经济动盪和英国脱欧后动向不明朗等因素中,富时大马综合指数仍保持平稳;展望2016年第3季,市场人士认为,企业业绩料延续疲软,因此,在未迎来任何新利好因素之前,综指將继续窄幅波动。

在英国宣布退出欧盟后,肯纳格研究分析员原以为,综指將迎来一轮大震盪,但市场却出乎意料的冷静;分析员指,这是因为美联储加息预期减弱所致,欧盟波动和美国大选都使美联储放缓升息步伐。

肯纳格研究认为,综指將持续在1630点至1670点间窄幅波动;若其他可造成股市波动的因素出现,综指的波幅料可扩大至1585点到1715点区间。

「然而,截至目前为止,综指成份股盈利仍未有好转的跡象,过高估值亦让人避而远之。」

肯纳格研究分析员预测,综合指数成份股2016年和2017年的盈利增幅为2.3%和7.8%,相等于18.8倍和17.5倍的本益比,远高于歷史本益比17.5倍至18倍。

展望未来,有鑑于英国脱欧料导致国际贸易减缓,迫使投资计划喊停,令民眾採取观望態度,进而衝击经济成长,MIDF投行分析员將大马国內生產总值(GDP)成长从4.4%,下调至4%。这预示著企业盈利下滑风险將隨之增大。

MIDF投行分析员也调低所追踪的综指成份股2016年盈利预测2.7%,至551亿8000万令吉,同时,將马股全年盈利预测下调2.4%,至717亿4000万令吉。

「企业盈利和估值都会直接影响指数表现。不过,当各国央行有意採取行动、减缓英国脱欧带来的衝击,有助扩大股市估值,料降低盈利减少的风险;因此,我们重申综指2016年杪目標1750点。」

3大因素支撑综指

同时,肯纳格研究分析员也指出,综指有3大支撑因素,降低下行空间,即:一、综指在约1610点形成双底形態,而1665点则是第一道阻力水平;二、外资撤走步伐放慢,料有利于令吉匯率和油价趋向稳定;三、市场不会进一步下调综指2016年目標。

「儘管如此,按照以往第3季业绩表现,我们不排除今年第3季业绩继续疲软,加上我国银行体系游资未有起色。」

有鑑于此,在假设目前综指水平的上行空间少于5%的情况下,肯纳格研究分析员稍微调低2016年杪综指目標,从1725点,至1715点,该目標水平亦是以2016年19.6倍和2017年18.2倍的本益比计算。

除此之外,基于市场可能再掀巨大波动,该分析员也扩大其2016年第3季趁低买进区间至1585到1630点,並建议投资者在综指超越1715点后趁高卖出。

至于投资建议,肯纳格研究分析员各別给予建筑、手套、塑料包装和能源领域「增持」投资评级,而MIDF研究分析员则看好航空、油气、种植、港口、保险和医疗领域。

有別于MIDF研究分析员,肯纳格研究分析员则给予医疗、汽车和房產领域「减持」投资评级,並「中和」看待其余未点名行业。

他也称,「我们正面看待抗跌性强和有高週息率的股项,业绩按年及按季均有成长的企业亦是不错的选择。同时,隨著美元走强和投资者偏好避险股项,我们相信,出口股將再次受投资者喜爱
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 12, 2016, 07:23:53 AM



Bursa sees return of net foreign buying
Posted on 12 July 2016 - 05:39am
Print
PETALING JAYA: The foreign tide finally returned to Bursa Malaysia last week after 10 successive weeks of selling, with foreigners turning net buyers despite the short trading week, said MIDF Research.

Over the three trading days last week, foreign investors net purchased RM93.5 million on Bursa, after a negligible RM1.4 million selling the week prior. The estimates are based on transactions in the open market which excluded off market deals.

“We note that the buying momentum from the second half of the preceding week was carried forward as trading commenced on Monday, in which foreigners loaded up RM168.8 million. It was the third highest daily buying since April 1 this year,” it said in its fund flow report yesterday.

However, the buying momentum halted on the eve of the two-day holiday (Tuesday), in which foreign investors reduced their holding marginally by RM8.3 million during the morning session.

Bursa was closed early on Tuesday by noon. Foreign selling resumed when Bursa reopened on Friday, as foreigners sold another RM67 million.

MIDF Research noted that foreign net buying last week effectively lifted the cumulative net foreign fund flow thus far this year into shares listed on Bursa from the negative territory.

As of last Friday, the year-to-date cumulative flow into Bursa amounted to an estimated RM58.4 million, up from RM35.1 million the week prior. In 2014 and 2015, foreigners had offloaded RM6.9 billion and RM19.5 billion respectively.

“Despite the intermittent trading days last week, foreign participation rate managed to edge up to RM906.5 million from prior week’s RM811.7 million. It was the first time it rose above the RM900 million level after one month of moderate trading at less than RM900 million,” it said.

Local institutions sold RM87 million on Bursa last week, marking their first net selling in 11 weeks. Participation rate declined further to RM1.41 billion from prior week’s RM1.76 billion, amid the short trading week.

Meanwhile, retail buyers continued to be net sellers for the third week in a row, selling marginally at RM6.5 million. Their participation rate slowed down to RM384.8 million.

The short trading week saw the KLCI retreating marginally by 0.1% to 1,644.54 points while the ringgit depreciated by 0.9% to US$/RM4.03 after a strong performance in the week prior.

“Oil price continued to hold bearing on ringgit’s movement. The retreating oil price was potentially the catalyst to the 1.3% decline in ringgit’s strength on Wednesday morning,” said MIDF Research.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 16, 2016, 11:19:58 AM



Checkmating market syndicates
By Cheah Chor Sooi
Friday, 15 Jul 2016, 12:30 AM
         


Seasoned investors know that logic doesn’t necessarily prevail in stock trading. Fundamentally weak stocks can see steep rises in prices while those with good prospects can experience price slides.

Such irrational behaviours have given rise to talk that stocks are sometimes manipulated by syndicates or groups of people who “push” these stocks up or down. These syndicates are also undeterred by the fact that these stocks are queried by Bursa Malaysia for any unusual market activity (UMA).

A good example is the trading of penny stocks, including their warrants, which continue to hog the limelight attracting keen interest from punters. They can be highly speculative or volatile although some have zero fundamentals.

For retail investors who make up one-fifth of Bursa’s stock trading participation, delving in penny stocks has become a way to make quick gains. But this could be potentially risky as they are oblivious to the invisible hands in action.

And many a time, such invisible hands and their manipulative manner thrive on the pump-and-dump strategy with large block of shares acquired, price ramped up and followed by dumping of an enormous quantity. Such market behaviours would eventually leave stock chasers who are not wary of the hidden agenda getting their fingers burnt.


For the full story, please subscribe to Focus Malaysia.
- See more at: http://www.focusmalaysia.my/Mainstream/Checkmating%20market%20syndicates#sthash.0Doubq9V.dpuf
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 16, 2016, 11:44:29 AM



Edge Weekly
It's penny stocks open season
By Tan Choe Choe / theedgemarkets.com   | July 16, 2016 : 11:20 AM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR: Groups of local sophisticated investors, comprising high-net-worth individuals, have pooled funds amounting to RM200 million to actively buy into Bursa Malaysia-listed penny stocks - defined as those priced at less than RM1 — in the next few months, which marks the beginning of open season for penny stocks, according to sources with local investment banks.

Of the exclusive investment clubs being formed, one of them is eyeing 20 penny stocks and so far has identified at least three potential target companies, according to The Edge Malaysia's cover story for the week of July 18-July 24, entitled 'Riding the penny stock roller coaster' by Liew Jia Teng.
   
“They are approaching a few investment banks to help them hunt for penny stocks that are valued at below 50 sen per share, preferably loss-making and debt-laden companies in the services and manufacturing sectors. Basically, they will come in as white knights with restructuring and turnaround plans,” a source told the weekly.

The development is not unheard of as the period from June to August is usually the most popular season for the trading of penny stocks because it is easier to create excitement when the market is running low on ideas, another source highlighted.

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0:18


“It’s not something unusual because it happens almost every year, but I would say that the situation is getting more severe this year. There are always concerns that the so-called ‘white knight’ investors may pull out their investments after the share prices move up, leaving some clueless retail investors in limbo,” he warned.

The high-velocity penny stock world has also always been a playground for traders and speculators, who seek to make quick and easy money in a short period of time.

But for retail investors, the highly speculative nature in penny stocks trading is like playing musical chairs — fun and exciting when you're winning, but you don't want to be left holding the shares when the rally stops.

Areca Capital Sdn Bhd CEO Danny Wong Teck Meng cautioned that while the backgrounds of the white knights do carry a certain weight, it is more important to keep track of the execution of their turnaround plans, and advised retail investors not to be overly excited about the turnaround game plan before it is carried out.

But among those who are seeing a positive turnaround is Borneo Oil Bhd, after Tan Sri Lau Cho Kun emerged as a substantial shareholder in the company in October 2014, cited Wong. Cho Kun is the nephew of the late Tan Sri Lau Gek Poh, who founded the Hap Seng Group.

Last July, Bursa approved Borneo Oil’s rights issue with free warrants, enabling it to raise RM223.39 million to expand its gold mining operations in Peninsular Malaysia. In its first quarter ended April 30, 2016 (1QFY17), net profit rose over 20-fold to RM10.7 million from RM525,000 a year ago, while revenue expanded over 100 times to RM1.5 billion, from RM14.6 million previously.

But a white knight does not guarantee a happy ending, as evidenced in the numerous cases of ambitious plans — be it corporate turnarounds, restructuring exercises or business diversification projects — that never came to fruition or have yet to materialise over the years — the weekly wrote.

Take maker Anzo Holdings Bhd for example. Formerly known as Harvest Court Industries Bhd, it aborted plans in 2014 to work with 1Green Enviro Sdn Bhd and Sagajuta (Sabah) Sdn Bhd, whose chairman was Datuk Mohd Nazifuddin Najib, the son of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

During Nazifuddin’s brief tenure as a director of Harvest Court — from Oct 28 to Nov 21, 2011 — the company signed an agreement to design and build a RM70 million pulp and paper plant in Negeri Sembilan to process oil palm empty fruit bunches for 1Green Enviro, and another for a RM129 million contract to participate in Sagajuta’s mixed-use development in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.

Nazifuddin and Harvest Court’s then CEO cum managing director Datuk Raymond Chan Boon Siew were founders, directors and shareholders of 1Green Enviro as well as the management behind Sagajuta. But both business diversification plans were called off and Harvest Court remains in the red with a net loss of RM10.85 million in the financial year ended March 31, 2016.

So given the uncertainty, changes and high risks associated with investing in penny stocks, those who want to take the chance and are willingly go on a roller-coaster ride should be aware of the downside risks, the weekly noted.

To find out more, including what are the top 20 loss-making penny stock companies and top 20 debt-laden ones, check out The Edge Malaysia now at newsstands near you.

P/S: The Edge Malaysia can also be downloaded from Apple's AppStore and Androids' Google Play.edg
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: stockraider on July 16, 2016, 12:16:00 PM
CORRECTION LOH....!!

 HEADLINE SHOULD READ;  " IS TIME TO SPECULATE STOCK-BURSA"

REASON; IF BUY 20 LOSS MAKING PENNY STOCK- IT SHOULD BE SPECULATION MAH....!!
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 16, 2016, 02:28:07 PM



2016-07-16 12:23
马股IPO冷飕飕.上半年仅6宗.集资额急挫66%
大马股市在过去6个月仅迎来6宗首次公开售股(IPO),尽管录得与去年同期相同的数量,惟集资额却远逊去年同期。
(吉隆坡15日讯)大马股市的新公司上市活动继续吹冷风,在过去6个月仅迎来6宗首次公开售股(IPO),尽管录得与去年同期相同的数量,惟集资额却远逊去年同期。

广告

集资额不足10亿

总结上半年,6宗IPO集资额不足10亿令吉,仅达9亿7480万9555令吉,对比去年同期(未包括指数基金)的28亿3176万9460令吉,下跌65.58%。

去年同期最大宗的IPO为马拉科夫(MALAKOF,5264,主板贸服组),集资约27亿4000万令吉,今年上半年的则是联熹(RANHILL,5272,主板贸服组),集资5亿7000万令吉。

去年全年共有13宗IPO包括两宗指数型基金,为25年来最少IPO的1年,11宗上市公司集资额共达41亿2448万4940令吉。

尽管上市集资额偏低,在今年已上市的6家公司中,新股发售计划大部份都获得投资者热捧,而且大都录得超额认购,甚至在首日上市当天以溢价挂收。

广告

LKL国际最出色
联熹表现最差

在今年上半年上市的公司当中,有4家上市马股主板剩余则在创业板挂牌,当中要以在创业板挂牌的LKL国际(LKL,0182,创业板消费品组)表现最为出色,不但获得92.84倍的超额认购,甚至在上市首日,即以溢价8仙或40%至28仙挂收。

这当中只有重新上市的联熹表现最差,尽管该公司是今年至今最大宗的IPO,惟认购率却仅有13%,甚至必须将发售价调低至1令吉20仙,而且上市首日也以折价19仙或15.83%,以1令吉零1仙收市,表现差强人意。

PECCA集团(PECCA,5271,主板工业产品组)则总共发售1亿8800万股,集资1亿2939万8920令吉;最小宗的IPO为LKL国际,共发售4亿2880万股,集资2260万令吉。

据大马交易所资料显示,7月及8月将会有两家公司上市,分别是预定于7月21日上市主板的Dancomech控股及预计在下月10日在创业板挂牌的HSS工程有限公司。

H S S工程早在去年8月已经提呈初步招股书给证券监督委员会(SC),惟却延迟至一年后的今年8月才上市。

证监会网站资料则显示,尚有两家在去年提呈初步招股书,惟至今尚未上市的公司,分别是TelentOutdoor(香港)科技公司和Spring能源资源有限公司。



8公司呈初步招股书

尽管马股IPO数量在近期出现下滑的现象,但是在今年至今为止,已有8家公司提呈初步招股书给证监会。

其中吉隆(SALUTE,0183,创业板消费品组)已于今年5月上市,而Dancomech控股也预定7月上市。

剩余则包括绿盛世国际(EcoWorld International)、HLT全球有限公司(H L T G l o b a l)、霹雳运输有限公司(P e r a kTransit)、BCM联合有限公司(BCMAlliance)、FoundPac集团有限公司(FoundPac Group Berhad)和Rhone Ma控股有限公司(Rhone MaHoldings Berhad)。

当中备受瞩目的要数与产业钜子丹斯里刘启盛有关的绿盛世国际,该上市计划是迄今已知最大宗的IPO,预计筹资26亿令吉。

据资料,绿盛世国际原订本月上市,惟为了引进来自新加坡的显著股东,因此将上市计划延后至9月或10月。

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经‧报道:刘玉萍‧2016.07.16
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: GanSoon on July 16, 2016, 03:15:06 PM
Bursa Malaysia is likely to trend higher next week on improved sentiment including Bank Negara's overnight policy rate (OPR) cut, rebound in oil prices, global bank stimulus and a stronger currency.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: The-Keyman on July 16, 2016, 03:22:16 PM
Bursa Malaysia is likely to trend higher next week on improved sentiment including Bank Negara's overnight policy rate (OPR) cut, rebound in oil prices, global bank stimulus and a stronger currency.

Are you sure !!! :think: :think: :think: :think: :think: :think:

Only local institutions playing left hand playing right hand... :sleep: :sleep: :sleep:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on July 16, 2016, 03:35:38 PM
Yes yes....veli big bull kambing...property, construction and automobiles activated ady.... The wheel start moving.....many many counters see silver lining ady.....

 :clap: :clap: :clap: :nod:

Buy what? Kan cheong ady..... :D
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on July 16, 2016, 07:49:28 PM
The U.S. stock market should not be trading at record highs because the data on fund flows don't support the moves, said Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager.

"I don't think we have enough evidence to justify these levels in the equity market at this moment," Fink said Thursday on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on July 16, 2016, 08:05:35 PM
Tech and financial stocks headline the first big week of earnings season at the risk of being overshadowed by a coup attempt in NATO-member Turkey late Friday.

Stocks rose for a third-straight week Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.05%  closed at a fourth-straight record high. For the week, the Dow industrials rose 2%, while both the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.09%  the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.09%  1.5%.

Those gains may fall under pressure from skittish investors following reports of a military coup in Turkey late Friday after the close of U.S. markets, prompting the U.S. dollar to rally against the Turkish lira USDTRY, +4.9161%

While events in Turkey play out, the worst thing to do is panic and join a selloff as geopolitical risk is always on the investment landscape, said Karyn Cavanaugh, market strategist at Voya Investment Management. This should be fresh in investors’s minds given the selloff in stocks following the Brexit vote followed by a rebound to record highs, she said.

With that said, stocks will likely open lower on Monday because of the fresh uncertainty surrounding the events in Turkey, Cavanaugh said.

Please take care of your hard earn moni on Monday.  Thank you.  :handshake: :handshake: :handshake:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/turkey-uncertainty-may-put-stocks-under-gun-2016-07-16
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on July 16, 2016, 09:10:41 PM
Turkey so big effect meh?
Tech and financial stocks headline the first big week of earnings season at the risk of being overshadowed by a coup attempt in NATO-member Turkey late Friday.

Stocks rose for a third-straight week Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.05%  closed at a fourth-straight record high. For the week, the Dow industrials rose 2%, while both the S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.09%  the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.09%  1.5%.

Those gains may fall under pressure from skittish investors following reports of a military coup in Turkey late Friday after the close of U.S. markets, prompting the U.S. dollar to rally against the Turkish lira USDTRY, +4.9161%

While events in Turkey play out, the worst thing to do is panic and join a selloff as geopolitical risk is always on the investment landscape, said Karyn Cavanaugh, market strategist at Voya Investment Management. This should be fresh in investors’s minds given the selloff in stocks following the Brexit vote followed by a rebound to record highs, she said.

With that said, stocks will likely open lower on Monday because of the fresh uncertainty surrounding the events in Turkey, Cavanaugh said.

Please take care of your hard earn moni on Monday.  Thank you.  :handshake: :handshake: :handshake:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/turkey-uncertainty-may-put-stocks-under-gun-2016-07-16
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on July 16, 2016, 10:32:40 PM
The U.S. dollar soared against the Turkish lira Friday after reports of gunfire in Ankara, the capital of Turkey.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 17, 2016, 09:46:46 PM


【独家】马股缺乏动力 公司业绩低迷
IPO市场寒流来袭
252点看 2016年7月17日
独家报道:姚思敏
大马首次公开募股(IPO)市场,一年比一年淡静,进入今年更可说是寒流来袭;2010年,隆股市有29只新股上市,去年锐减至13只,今年首半年更仅有区区的6只!

同时,筹资规模也大缩水,今年首半年仅达7亿9159万令吉,远低于去年的41亿4048万令吉。


研究主管认为,下半年IPO市场依然是冷风飕飕,风有多大,温度有多低?那要看两大关键会否恶化。

IPO淡市两大因素

市场游资

目前市场流动性相当低迷,外资对马股购兴又不强,要筹大笔资金的公司,担心市场资金不足以吸纳发售的股票。

经济实况

经济放缓拖累企业,没有亮眼的业绩支撑,谈什么上市?

仅6新股上市筹8亿
上半年IPO规模挫77%

外资4月末在大马股市正式结束连续10周的购买潮后,转为净卖家,今年至今的净资金流向更一度在6月转为负数,这也导致上半年我国首次公开募股(IPO)市场陷入低迷。

忧中带喜的是,今年的新股除了联熹控股(RANHILL,5272,主板贸服股)外,其余的股价皆走高,当中LKL国际(LKL,0182,创业板),更在上市后短短两个月激增47.50%,成为黯淡IPO市场中的亮点。

展望下半年 ,最大的焦点将是9月或10月上市的绿盛世国际(EWI),该公司放眼筹资20亿令吉,有望成为马股今年最大型的IPO。

研究主管认为,虽然看淡下半年IPO市场,但假设我国第14届大选提前举行,将有助提振股市及IPO市场。 我国最迟必须在2018年5月,举行全国大选。


徐克宇:大环境疲弱,导致缺乏大型公司挂牌。

根据马交所的数据,今年上半年有6只新股,而待定的上市计划只有两项,分别是Dancomech控股和HSS工程(HSS Engineers Berhad)。

由于新股的每股发售价皆偏低,所以IPO规模也大大缩小,只有7亿9159万令吉。

相比去年,今年首半年上市数量不仅减半,IPO规模更从41亿4048万令吉,锐减77%。

丰隆投行研究主管兼经济学家徐克宇对《南洋商报》表示,今年上半年IPO市场很淡静,主要是因为我国经济放缓。

“这一两年的经济增长持续放缓,企业活动并不多,加上大型公司大部分都已经上市了。”

他认为,大环境疲弱,导致缺乏大型公司挂牌,今年上半年上市的公司多属小型股,筹资规模不大。

徐克宇指出,英国脱欧影响,绿盛世国际(EWI)从原定在上半年上市,不得已延后至下半年。

担心缺乏购兴

到底是马股缺乏流动性,还是缺乏优质新股,导致IPO市场低迷?

徐克宇认为,这是先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题。

“外资撤离马股,公司担心缺乏购兴,无法获得合理价格,而不愿上市。”

此外 ,新上市的多属于小型股,筹集规模不大,风险也相对较高,更无法吸引投资机构。


冯廷秀:外资停止卖压,有助稳住股市和IPO市场。

两个月无新股

InterPacific研究主管冯廷秀对本报说,今年IPO市场低迷,只有6家公司在上半年上市,而且多般是小型股,筹资规模不大,因担心市场流动性少,不足以吸纳大型集资活动。

冯廷秀指出,由于市场流通性相当低,很少资金来马投资,所以今年的IPO数量不多,而规模也不大。

今年新上市的公司,发售价偏低,最高是PECCA集团(PECCA,5271,主板工业产品股)达1.42令吉。

更让人警惕的是,联熹控股(RANHILL,5272,主板贸服股)因为IPO反应冷淡,在通过竞标定价(Book-building)后,最终将原定1.70令吉的散户发售价,削价50仙至1.20令吉。

他强调,特别是在吉隆公司(SALUTE,0183,创业板)于5月18日上市之后,至今约两个月没有新股,相信是因为外资抛售马股,导致市场情绪疲弱。


外资结束抛售潮

吉隆公司是在4月28日开始公开售股至5月6日,当时,是外资展开抛售潮的开端。

受到一个马来西亚发展有限公司(1MDB)事件的拖累,外资从3月净买入60亿8000万令吉,在4月锐减至4亿3390万令吉,之后更转为净卖出。

不过,截至7月8日一周,外资重回马股的怀抱,再度转为5840万令吉净买入。

冯廷秀说:“外资停止卖压,有助稳住股市和IPO市场。”

接下来会有两家公司上市,即Dancomech控股和HSS工程(HSS Engineers Berhad)分别在7月和8月挂牌,反映出外资抛售潮结束后,上市活动又回暖了。

虽说外资在英国脱欧公投后结束抛售,但也看不到回头买入马股,所以冯廷秀认为,市场流动性趋紧,散户市场也相当谨慎。


我国这一两年的经济增长持续放缓,企业活动并不多。(档案照)

MSCI调低权重外资将续减少

长期而言,冯廷秀认为,外资会持续减少,因为MSCI将大马在新兴市场指数的权重调低。

“在20年前,大马权重在MSCI新兴市场指数有20%。不过,现在却调低至3.09%。”

他指出,很多基金都会购买指数基金,并会根据指数的权重比例而分配资金。

因此,一旦其他市场开放,提高吸引力之后,或许富时隆综指数的权重将会进一步下跌,而分配在综指的基金也会减少。

冯廷秀认为,除非大马经济加速改革,否则无法吸引外资回头。

“在1990年代时,我国经济增长8%左右,到2000年代下跌至6%,而现在则再降到3%至4%。”


马交所今年上半年有6只新股上市,分别是柏昇、吉隆公司、LKL国际、振兴集团、联熹控股及PECCA集团。(档案照)

网上融资威胁IPO市场

假设宏观经济增长持续低迷,将使到更多企业走向网上融资,如股票型群众筹资(Equity Crowdfunding)和P2P(Peer-to-peer Lending)借贷平台,IPO市场将会更加淡静。

徐克宇表示,新经济模式的崛起,将导致融资模式出现改变。

“不少企业已改变经商模式,通过互联网与更大的客户群挂钩,所以将把企业推向网上融资方式。”

他补充,通过老旧经商模式的企业,都已经上市了。

大马证券监督委员会持续利用科技,提供创新网络金融解决方案,包括积极推动股票型群众筹资和P2P借贷平台,让资金市场更具包容性,中小企业和新创企业亦有机会接触市场融资。

不过,冯廷秀认为,虽然不排除网上融资会对IPO市场造成威胁,但目前仍属新崛起行业,相信目前还不会冲击IPO市场。

互补实质上市

相同的,JF Apex证券研究主管李忠正表示,网上融资不会直接成为IPO市场的竞争对手,而是扮演互补的角色。

“相比IPO,网上融资无需企业强劲的记录,特别是给创新企业融资。”

同时,李忠正认为,企业通过IPO上市的地位不同,所取得的名声也会更高。

GST拉低业绩难达上市门槛

冯廷秀认为,除了市场流动性低之外,能够上市的公司不多,也是导致IPO市场淡静的因素。

“由于我国经济增长放缓,加上政府在去年4月开始落实消费税(GST),导致很多企业的业绩欠佳,因此,很难建立良好的记录并达到马交所上市要求,特别是要上市主板的门槛。”

政府宣布,从7月开始调涨天然气售价,以及最低薪金制从900令吉,提高至1000令吉,亦加重我国企业的营运成本压力。

自去年下半年开始,国内上市公司的业绩普遍逊于预期,有分析员认为,今年企业盈利会持续放缓。

冯廷秀认为,IPO市场将会低迷至今年底。

大选有助推动股市

不过,他说,假设我国大选提早至明年举行,将会推动今年股市在年杪走高,或提振明年IPO市场。

他指,目前和2012年的情况相同。“2012年的IPO市场也相当淡静,上市公司数量从2011年的28家,大减至17家。不过,在2013年举行全国大选,成功在同年追赶并维持相同的新上市公司数量。”

不过,全国大选效应一过,又在2014和2015年,分别跌至15和13家。


上市两个月飙47.50%LKL国际傲视新秀

今年上半年上市的新股,除了联熹控股之外,股价走势强劲,最低都取得超过10%的增幅。

其中,以LKL国际(LKL,0182,创业板)表现最出色,从5月16日上市至今,短短两个月内飙涨47.50%。

吉隆公司(SALUT
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 18, 2016, 06:59:44 PM



2016-07-18 17:23
外资持股率反弹‧马股双重受惠
马股的外资持股率已跌至谷底,最近出现反弹净回流迹象,加上马币汇率落入扬升趋势,外资持股率偏低的股项或领域将从中受惠,马股浮现“一石二鸟”优势,有望从股价及货币汇率双双走高中获利。

(图:法新社)
(吉隆坡18日讯)马股的外资持股率已跌至谷底,最近出现反弹净回流迹象,加上马币汇率落入扬升趋势,外资持股率偏低的股项或领域将从中受惠,马股浮现“一石二鸟”优势,有望从股价及货币汇率双双走高中获利。

广告

马股受惠于股价及汇率走高

回教银行研究认为,随着马币汇率前景靠稳,推动外国游资流入,使马股将从中受惠。马股已经连续两周从外资流入正面效应中走高。

虽然2016年第二季外资净流出,惟马股数个股项的外资持股却是有增无减。

回银研究持续看好外资持续买进的股项,特别是一些股项的外资持股已接近“谷底”水平。

该行认为,虽然隔夜政策利率上周降息,惟马币汇率却落入扬升势趋,特别是马币兑美元汇率走高,这有助于吸引更多外资回流马股。

广告

 
马币走高有助吸资
外资过去两周回流

自今年6月份,马股表现大幅度落后全球股市,不过,此趋势在过去两周却出现扭转迹象,马股今年第27周外资净流入9400万令吉、第28周则流入7亿6400万令吉,从而推动马股综指创下今年5月3日以来最高水平。

回银研究指出,外资在马股富时大马伊斯兰股项的沽售已接近谷底,特别是一些股项的外资持股额,比马股在2014年首半年创下最高峰时期还要高。

马币兑主要货币走高,包括美元、日圆和欧元,这些地区也是大马主要贸易伙伴。

回银研究预测马币兑美元汇率将持稳,今年杪目标将落在3.85至3.90之间水平。有鋻于此,投资者进场马股将收“一石二鸟”

之效,即可从马股价格及货币汇率双双走高中获利。

马币兑美元今日回软,截至下午5时报3.9720。

外资第28周猛流入7.64亿

回银研究预测外资在马股的沽售已经干涸,在今年连续10周(第17周至25周)持续净流出约64亿令吉之后,于第27周开始转为净流入9400万令吉,并且在第28周猛流入7亿6400万令吉。

外资在2016年首季大量流出,使马股富时大马综合指数下跌3.7%,反观当外资净流入54亿令吉时,综指扬升1.4%。

根据在2014年首季至2016年第二季期间对马股30个伊斯兰股项的外资持股趋势剖析显示,在这期间,一半股项的外资持股在2014年达到最高水平,这也是马股创下历来最高峰时刻。

过去3季
数领域股价与外资持股率相关

回银研究剖析显示,过去3个季度,马股数个领域的股价表现与外资持股率息息相关,包括公用事业、通讯、油气、医药保健、以及非伊斯兰股项的银行领域。

伊股走势与外资持股一致

根据观察,马股数个伊斯兰股最近的股价走势,与外资持股走势一致,包括国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组)、柔佛医药保健(KPJ,5878,主板贸服组)、西港(WPRTS,5246,主板贸服组),以及全利资源(QL,7084,主板消费品组)。

马电讯金务大受看好

上述4个股项是在5项股项中(除了IHH医保(IHH,5225,主板贸服红)皆获得“买进”评级。除此之外,该行也看好马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服组)及金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑组),因也将从外资回流中受惠。

回银研究指出,投资者也可考虑外资持股大幅度下跌的领域或个股,包括一些产业股如UEM阳光(UEMS,5148,主板产业组)及双威(SUNWAY,5211,主板产业组),预料股价有望在外资回流中回扬。



文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧报道:李文龙‧2016.07.18
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 19, 2016, 07:07:19 AM



Second straight week of net foreign buying
Posted on 19 July 2016 - 05:38am
Print
PETALING JAYA: The foreign tide into Bursa Malaysia accelerated substantially last week, marking the second consecutive week of inflow, according to MIDF Research.

The net amount purchased by foreign investors increased significantly to RM764.2 million from RM93.5 million the week prior. It was the biggest weekly net inflow in more than three months. The estimates are based on transactions in the open market, which excluded off-market deals.

Foreigners were net buyers on every trading day last week. They have been buying on nine out of 11 straight days.

“We note that the attrition in the preceding Friday was transient, as foreign investors increased their holding with RM39.6 million when Bursa commenced on Monday, with the buying ticked up slightly to RM45.3 million on the following day,” MIDF said in its fund flow report yesterday.

“Bank Negara Malaysia’s Wednesday overnight policy rate cut was arguably the catalyst of the week.”

The cumulative net foreign fund flow thus far this year into shares listed on Bursa improved considerably after last week’s robust inflow. As of last Friday, the year-to-date cumulative flow into Bursa has moved further away from the negative territory to an estimated RM822.6 million, up from RM58.4 million the week prior.

In retrospect, foreigners had offloaded RM19.5 billion and RM6.9 billion in 2015 and 2014 respectively.

“Foreign participation rate continued to improve, edging up to RM1.09 billion last week from prior week’s RM906.5 million. This was the first time it rose above the RM1 billion level in the past six weeks,” said MIDF.

Local institutions were net sellers on Bursa for the second straight week, offloading some RM702.5 million
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 22, 2016, 02:19:35 PM



Malaysia’s fiscal deficit to improve to 3.1pc of GDP this year, says Affin Hwang
Published: July 22, 2016 12:28 PM GMT+8

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Malaysia's fiscal deficit was forecasted to further improve to 3.0 per cent in 2017. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa
Malaysia's fiscal deficit was forecasted to further improve to 3.0 per cent in 2017. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa
KUALA LUMPUR, July 22 — Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd has projected Malaysia’s fiscal deficit to improve 0.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year from 3.2 per cent last year on the back of improving global oil prices.

The fiscal deficit was forecasted to further improve to 3.0 per cent in 2017.

The investment bank said global oil prices have recovered strongly since reaching a 12-year low of between US$26 and US$28 per barrel in mid-January 2016 to about US$47 per barrel currently.

It said between January and mid-July, Brent crude averaged around US$42 per barrel, and is likely to remain at around the US$48-US$50 level in the remaining months of 2016, bringing the full-year average to around US$45 per barrel.

“Given that about 14 per cent of the Malaysian government’s revenue for 2016 is likely oil-related, we believe the recovery in oil prices has lifted some pressure on the country’s fiscal position,” it said in a research note today.

The investment bank said back in early January, in response to the lower collection of oil-related revenue, as well as to maintain the fiscal deficit position at 3.1 per cent of GDP, the government had resorted to optimise both the operating expenditure (OPEX) and development expenditure (DE), through cost-cutting in non-critical spending, such as supplies and services.


“The DE was reduced to RM46 billion and RM45 billion on average oil price assumptions of US$35 and US$30 per barrel respectively,” it said.

It said this was done through rescheduling non-physical projects and projects still under study, reducing the cash flow commitment by RM4 billion-RM5 billion, with infrastructure projects with larger multiplier effects to be prioritised and carried out.

“Based on our estimates, with recent oil prices having rebounded to the US$46-US$48 per barrel range, and averaging at around US$42 per barrel (comfortably above US$30-US$35 per barrel), the government has some flexibility to increase the DE budget towards RM50 billion,” it said.

However, it said, the government is expected to wait for a clearer economic outlook on Malaysia’s domestic demand, given the recent slowdown in both private consumption and investment, before deciding on reinstating some of the cutback in development expenditure.

It said as there is no urgent need for a higher allocation for development expenditure, if the Malaysian economy continues on its current steady pace, the expected improvement in oil revenue may be necessary to accommodate the slightly higher OPEX.

“For 2016, with allocation in emolument and pension charges, in tandem with salary increases for civil servants, we believe OPEX will be slightly higher than the allocation in the revised Budget, in a similar trend to 2015,” it said.

Overall, the investment bank said the government will stay on its fiscal consolidation path, barring any significant downturn in the global economy. — Bernama

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/malaysias-fiscal-deficit-to-improve-to-3.1pc-of-gdp-this-year-says-affin-hw#sthash.eBVC5f3R.dpuf
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 23, 2016, 02:05:00 PM



财经  2016年07月22日
次季业绩料无惊喜 交易所仍可派高息

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(吉隆坡22日讯)由于2016年第2季的股票和衍生品成交量可能面对一跌一升的局面,分析员认为大马交易所(BURSA,1818,主板金融股)今年次季业绩料无惊喜,但仍有能力派发较高的股息。

大马交易所即將在下周一(25日)公佈2016財政年第2季(截至6月30日止)业绩。马银行投行分析员对此表示,他不认为该公司的净利会有惊喜。其2016年第2季净利料基本持平,按年和按季各起2%和1.1%,至5000万令吉。

同时,该分析员说,2016年第2季的股票日均成交值(ADV)预计按年和按季各跌0.3%和3.5%,至20亿令吉,而预估转手率则是30%,基本上没有太大变化。

分析员亦说,第2季的衍生產品的交易量比较强劲,有388万宗,按年和按季分別上涨21.7%和11.8%。这主要是由原棕油期货所支撑,占总成交量的82%。


「第2季的股票和衍生品成交量,料使大马交易所上半年的股票日均成交值按年滑落2.6%,及衍生品成交量按年上升9%,至735万宗。股票和衍生品分別占2015財政年营业额的48%和18%。」

此外,该分析员预计,大马交易所2016年上半年的净利是1亿令吉,占他全年净利预测的48%。

「我们的净利预测,已经计算了21亿令吉的股票日均成交值,和衍生品成交量的15%涨幅。我们暂时维持大马交易所的净利预测。」

另外,分析员称,大马交易所可能在公佈2016年上半年业绩时,宣佈派发中期股息每股17仙。全年来说,大马交易所或派每股36.5仙股息,周息率是4.1%。

「截至3月31日,该公司持有的现金是3亿3800万令吉,相等於每股63仙。若扣除2015財政年终期股息每股18仙,其剩余现金仍高达2亿4200万令吉,也就是每股45仙。」

他强调,大马交易所有能力派发更多股息,並且曾在2013和2014財政年派发特別股息每股20仙。

马银行投行维持大马交易所「守住」评级和9.05令吉目標价。大马交易所今天收报8.89令吉,全天无起落,成交量是139万3600股。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 25, 2016, 10:03:46 AM



Business as usual for Najib amid 1MDB allegations
Monday July 25, 2016
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Senior officials in Malaysia have closed ranks around Najib. He has denied all wrongdoing. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa
Senior officials in Malaysia have closed ranks around Najib. He has denied all wrongdoing. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa
KUALA LUMPUR, July 25 — The day US prosecutors alleged massive fraud at a Malaysian state fund, it was business as usual thousands of miles away for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. Attending an evening feast for thousands of civil servants, he shook hands and posed for selfies.

The next day he showed up at the exhibition of a new sedan by the country’s top carmaker and held a national development-planning meeting. He only briefly addressed the US news, saying the Department of Justice action should be allowed to run its course.

The message was clear: The premier is focused on matters at home, especially the economy, as he seeks to preserve support among his ruling party’s base of ethnic Malays, many of them in rural areas. One of his pit stops on Thursday was a speech to employees of a government agency that is tasked with helping thousands of smallholder farmers.

Having already weathered a year of scandals over multi million dollar political donations, it would take a major development domestically to put the premier at risk of losing his job in the near term. That’s even as the US civil suits seek to seize more than US$1 billion (RM4.09 billion) in assets that prosecutors allege was siphoned from troubled state fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd, whose advisory board Najib chaired until recently. Najib has denied any wrongdoing.

‘Fairly secure’

“The market is quite clear that Najib is fairly secure at this stage and there isn’t too much of a political challenge to him,” said Vaninder Singh, a Singapore-based economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. “As a consequence, what we’ve seen is that the impact from any 1MDB-related news stories on financial markets has come off significantly over the last few months.”

US investigators laid out their case on Wednesday that more than US$3.5 billion exited 1MDB fraudulently and was spent on paintings, luxury real estate and a Hollywood blockbuster, and at least US$700 million flowed into accounts controlled by a top Malaysian official whose description fits Najib.

The premier has previously acknowledged a similar amount went into his accounts before the 2013 general election. He’s said the money was a private donation from the Saudi royal family and most of it was later returned. Among those identified in the US suit was Najib’s stepson Riza Aziz and his associates. The US did not name any individuals as defendants.

There’s no immediate indication of whether the US is readying criminal charges against Malaysian officials, and the chances of Najib being indicted at home appear low. Domestic investigations into 1MDB and into Najib’s actions have largely wrapped up. The attorney general concluded earlier this year that Najib did not engage in any graft.

As markets wobbled last year on the revelations of the money that reached Najib’s accounts — foreign funds sold a net RM30.6 billion of Malaysia stocks and bonds in 2015 and the ringgit fell 19 per cent — the premier moved swiftly to shore up support.

He fired detractors including his deputy prime minister, and curbed dissent within Umno. An opposition in disarray, marked by periods of public infighting, has helped him.

No evidence

In the aftermath of the US move, senior officials in Malaysia were quick to close ranks around Najib. History has shown the US can act too hastily and then be proven incorrect, one minister said, adding no 1MDB money is missing or stolen. There’s no evidence from any probe anywhere that funds were misappropriated, the attorney general said, expressing “strong concerns at the insinuations and allegations” against Najib.

Other officials said the US suit is part of a wider plot by Najib’s detractors to topple a democratically-elected government, with one warning foreign meddling may lead Malaysia to become like Syria or Iraq.

“What we don’t know yet is whether there is anyone left in Malaysia to convince one way or another,” said Gregory Poling, a South-east Asia specialist at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “The opposition and its supporters were already certain that Najib had a hand in money laundering from 1MDB. Within Umno, Najib has forced out all those who thought the same, so all that is left are loyalists who are either convinced that he is innocent or don’t care one way or another.”

Investors meanwhile are focused on the need for stability. The currency has see-sawed this year amid an uncertain economic outlook, turning Asia’s best performance in the first three months of 2016 to one of the region’s worst since then.

The economy is projected to expand at the slowest pace in seven years amid falling oil revenue and weaker exports. After adding liquidity into the financial system earlier this year, policy makers lowered the key interest rate this month as a pre-emptive move to prevent a deeper slowdown.

There is residual public anger over a goods and services tax implemented more than a year ago, and spending constraints could leave Najib with less room to increase cash handouts that are currently given to seven million Malaysians, or one in every 4 citizens. The premier delved into the populist playbook last year for a budget sprinkled with handouts and subsidies, but lower crude prices have curbed revenue.

Still, foreign investment is holding up and rose 28 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, led by the services sector.

Next election

For Najib, economic stability is crucial as he seeks the votes of rural and semi-urban areas in the next election due by 2018. At stake for Umno is the unbroken rule of its Barisan Nasional coalition since independence in 1957. He’s had recent wins in local polls in Malaysia’s biggest state of Sarawak on Borneo island and two federal by-elections.

“1MDB seems not to be the top issue for rural voters and they eye more on economic and social welfare, which could be tackled by targeted fiscal measures,” said Vincent Tsui, a Hong Kong-based economist at AllianceBernstein LP which oversees about US$490 billion.

While the 1MDB drama has raised doubts about governance and accountability in Malaysia, the structure of domestic politics likely protects Najib. His mentor-turned-nemesis Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who was premier for over two decades, has repeatedly said Umno will lose the next election if Najib is leader.

The Coalition for Clean and Fair Elections, or Bersih, is considering another anti-Najib rally similar to one that brought out an estimated 300,000 people last August. The premier’s supporters say they’ll respond with their own march to show their allegiance.

As long as Najib retains the backing of Umno’s powerful division heads — the bulk of whom have stood by him in the past year — fresh protests will carry little weight. The views of those chiefs will become increasingly important closer to an election, depending on whether they feel Najib can carry the party to another win. Some economists have said Najib may consider an early election for 2017, to take advantage of the opposition infighting.

Having early elections could “completely put to bed” any political risk premium for Malaysia, said Singh from RBS.

“The political risk premium on Malaysian assets has come down quite a bit already,” Singh said. “If there’s another election and there’s a strong showing by Umno, whatever’s left will also go away.” — Bloomberg

- See more at: http://www.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/business-as-usual-for-najib-amid-1mdb-allegations#sthash.TfArnGYd.dpuf
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 25, 2016, 11:45:28 AM



Cash on hand, the ultimate buffer
By Billy Toh / The Edge Financial Daily   | July 25, 2016 : 10:41 AM MYT   
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 25, 2016.

 

KUALA LUMPUR: The slowdown in the property sector has prolonged for over a year. Most analysts opine that the weak consumer sentiment and banks’ stringent lending policy will continue to pose earnings risk to property developers.

Even after Bank Negara Malaysia’s recent cut in the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points, analysts are not convinced that the move will be enough to revive much of the property market.

The question of how resilient property companies are still lingering among the investing fraternity.

“We think it is important for property companies to have a strong balance sheet, cash and flexibility to weather the downturn of the market,” said TA Securities’ analyst Thiam Chiann Wen.

Indeed, cash is king in times of uncertainties. A sizable cash pile would be a good buffer against the fall in sale revenues.

A random check on 32 property companies with a market capitalisation between RM300 million to RM2 billion, only six companies’ cash ratio is higher than one.

The six are SHL Consolidated Bhd, Plentitude Bhd, TAHPS Group Bhd, Land & General Bhd (L&G), Amcorp Properties Bhd and Daiman Development Bhd. Tambun Indah Land Bhd’s cash ratio is at 0.99 based on the latest balance sheet. (see chart)

Cash ratio is a gauge of companies’ ability to cover their short-term liabilities.

L&G is among the few companies that has a cash ratio of higher than one, at 2.22 times, indicating more than sufficient cash on hand to pay off short-term debt.

L&G is on a net cash position of RM288.5 million, which is 67.4% of its current market capitalisation of RM427.9 million.

The company’s cash pile had grown significantly to RM525.9 million as of March 31, 2016 from RM398.3 million a year ago. In fact, the cash pile has more than doubled from RM183.8 million two years ago.

On the other side of its balance sheet, L&G’s borrowing was at RM83.1 million as at March 31.

As for companies’ prospects, L&G had, at the beginning of this year, planned to launch three developments with an estimated total gross development value (GDV) of RM1.67 billion. The launches are the Astoria serviced apartments in Ampang, phase 2 of the Damansara Foresta service apartments in Bandar Seri Damansara and the first phase of landed development, Taman Sena in Seremban.

The group’s net profit for fourth quarter financial year ended March 31, 2016 (4QFY16) was close to eight times higher at RM55 million from RM7.1 million in 4QFY15. The company has been profitable in the last ten years.

Like other property stocks, L&G’s share price has tumbled from its five-year high of 62.9 sen in August 2014 to a low of 33.5 sen in March this year.

L&G has declared dividend regularly since 2014. On May 30, the board declared a single-tier final dividend of two sen, reflecting a dividend yield of about 5.12% — even higher than some of the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) on Bursa Malaysia.

Meanwhile, SHL Consolidated has the highest cash ratio at 3.25 times among the companies under review. It also has a trailing dividend yield of 7.43%.

SHL Consolidated is rather unique with its build-then-sell (BTS) business model. Because of the BTS model, the company needs to maintain a strong balance sheet. It is mainly on affordable housing — one segment that analysts believe will continue to see demand despite the slowdown.

While it is still early to say if the company will continue with its dividend payout, SHL Consolidated’s cash balance at RM305.9 million is expected to strengthen its financial footing in current slowdown.

The company’s management has managed to reserve more cash while meeting its dividend payout ratio of at least 70% for the past three years, at least.

Nonetheless, the slowdown in the property market led to the decline of 19% in its net profit to RM84.54 million, or 34.92 sen per share, for the financial year ended March 31, 2016 (FY16) from RM104.56 million, 43.19 sen per share, the year before.

Interestingly, SHL Consolidated’s share price is considered rather resilient compared with its peers in the property industry. The stock has been hovering in the band between RM2.80 and RM3.40 since 2015. It was last traded at RM2.97. Year to date, SHL Consolidated has gained by 2.07%
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 25, 2016, 02:27:42 PM



n The Edge Singapore this week
Four ways political events can impact the economy
By Manu Bhaskaran / #~   | July 25, 2016 : 2:04 PM MYT   
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SINGAPORE (July 25): To distinguish between political developments that really matter to the economy or financial markets and others that are just noise, we need to understand which dimensions of politics actually impact businesses, and then assess whether the political flashpoints that we know are coming contain enough of these dimensions to cause permanent or far-reaching dislocations.

Typically, the political events that matter have the following characteristics:

1. A change in political leaders or parties that lead to a big ideological shift

A political change will matter if it represents a fundamentally different way of treating markets or private businesses or private property.

2. Wars, invasions and violent disruptions of business activity

Outright military conflict affecting regions that provide key resources such as oil or through which critical transportation routes go or that house vitally important manufacturing or other business activities.

3. Impaired foundational frameworks underpinning political order and economic cooperation

An example is the US invasion of Iraq which upset the political order in the Middle East. Anything that results in the division and weakening of Asean, the lynchpin of regional stability, would also be a substantial negative.

4. General rise in uncertainty hurting confidence

Finally, the series of coincidental but unrelated political stresses in recent months is leading to a general sense of unease. This tends to raise the risk premium, causing businesses to hesitate about investing or hiring workers or undertaking risky research and development initiatives
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 25, 2016, 03:10:57 PM



Bursa's 2Q net profit down on year, pays 17 sen dividend
By Chong Jin Hun / theedgemarkets.com   | July 25, 2016 : 2:46 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (July 25): Bursa Malaysia Bhd's second quarter net profit fell to RM49.48 million from RM49.49 million a year earlier as equities transaction value declined while derivative trades rose.

In a statement today, exchange regulator and operator Bursa Malaysia said group revenue climbed to RM129.72 million in the second quarter ended June 30, 2016 (2QFY16) from RM127.02 million.

Bursa Malaysia said average daily trading value for on-market equity transactions "moderated to RM1.84 billion in 2QFY16". Derivative market average daily contracts increased 21.7% to 61,611 contracts.

Bursa Malaysia chief executive officer Datuk Seri Tajuddin Atan said the group had contended with a challenging external backdrop.

"Notwithstanding the challenging external environment, to date our market integrity is intact with trading activities taking place in a fair and orderly manner, supported by adequate safeguards.

"The exchange remains cautiously optimistic on its performance for the year, and committed in its efforts to make the Malaysian equity and derivatives markets more attractive and vibrant. On our part, we will continue to intensify our engagements to attract more retail and institutional participation," Tajuddin said.

Bursa Malaysia's 1HFY16 net profit rose to RM99.41 million from RM96.54 million a year earlier. Revenue climbed to RM263.65 million from RM254.11 million.

According to the group, derivative market average daily contracts grew 8.1% to 59,790 contracts during 1HFY16. On-market equity transactions' average daily trading value fell 4.2% to RM1.91 billion.

For 2QFY16, Bursa Malaysia declared a dividend of 17 sen a share. The ex and payment dates fall on Aug 5 and 19 respectively
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 26, 2016, 08:52:03 AM



财经  2016年07月25日
景气趋冷打击上市活动 交易所下半年谨慎乐观

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景气趋冷打击上市活动 交易所下半年谨慎乐观
达祖汀阿丹(右)与大马交易所首席財务员诺斯达共同出席业绩匯报会。

(吉隆坡25日讯)受外围因素影响,大马交易所(BURSA,1818,主板金融股)谨慎乐观看待今年下半年的表现,並认为今年马股的首次公开售股(IPO)活动也將受到经济成长放缓的影响,因此预计將影响上市集资数额。

大马交易所首席执行员拿督达祖汀阿丹在业绩匯报会上,向媒体发表上述谈话。他指出,回顾今年上半年,大马交易所的表现好坏参半。他相信今年下半年的市场深具挑战,主要是不確定因素,包括美国联邦储备局升息预期和国际油价动盪,將继续困扰市场表现,並导致市场走势持续动盪。

次季净利持平 派息17仙

大马交易所今天公布的2016財政年次季(截至6月30日止)净利,从去年同期的4949万令吉,持平在4948万令吉;营业额也从去年同期的1亿2702万令吉,按年微扬2.13%,至1亿2972万令吉。


上半年,大马交易所的净利按年上升2.97%,至9941万令吉,前期为9654万令吉;营业额额则按年增长3.75%,至2亿6365万令吉,前期为2亿5411万令吉。

配合业绩宣布,大马交易所宣布派发每股17仙中期股息,较去年同期的每股16.5仙高。

达祖汀阿丹表示,在较高的营运营业额支撑下,大马交易所上半年税后盈利(PATAMI)按年增长近3%,也是自2008年以来,上半年表现最好的一次。

同时,他也指出,国家银行新任总裁拿督莫哈末依布拉欣从原任总裁丹斯里洁蒂手中接棒、棕油价格反弹、摩根史丹利资本国际从6月1日起调降大马在MSCI新兴市场指数的权重,以及英国脱欧等因素接踵而来,是影响大马交易所次季表现的4大因素。

「特別是外资出现大逆转的情况,从首季外资净流入,到次季外资开始大量拋售马股。」

上半年集资大缩水

截至6月30日止,外资净流出马股1亿令吉。外资已经连续2年净流出马股,2014年和2015年分別净流出69亿令吉和197亿令吉。

另一方面,在市场景气趋冷下,达祖汀阿丹预期马股的IPO活动数量料与去年持平。

截至今年6月30日止,共有5家新股在大马交易所上市,与去年持平。但集资规模却大量缩水,今年上半年为75亿令吉,远低于去年同期的110亿令吉,下跌幅度达31.82%。

达祖汀阿丹对此表示,儘管大马交易所已经採取积极的方式,提高马股的IPO活动,包括简化申请流程和提供教育平台等,但碍于目前经济环境艰鉅,因此成效无法立竿见影。

针对大马交易所在上半年的交易活动,证券市场日均成交值(ADV)按年下滑4.2%,至19亿1000万令吉;衍生產品市场日均合约(ADC)则上涨8.1%,至5万9790宗;伊斯兰资本市场「Bursa Suq Al-Sila」(简称BSAS)日均成交值成长33.55%,至170亿令吉。其股本回报率(ROE)持稳定在25%,而成本对收入比率则为47%
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 26, 2016, 10:22:56 AM



Malaysian market surprisingly resilient after Brexit
FMT Reporters | July 26, 2016
FT report says PM Najib’s ability to shake off critics depends on strong economy and low unemployment, so the government will push for further rate cuts.
brexit-1

KUALALUMPUR: Markets in developing Asia have proven surprisingly resilient a month after Brexit.
A report in the Financial Times said policymakers had been appropriately cautious over the past few weeks in the face of a series of unexpected political shocks, from Brexit to the Turkish coup attempt to a series of terror attacks in Europe.
However, in Malaysia, the FT report said, the local bond market had shaken off not only global events but also local problems, including the fact that US and Singapore regulators were taking action over fraud claims connected to 1Malaysia Development Berhad, backed by Prime Minister Najib Razak.
So far, it said, the search for yield had trumped political risk.

It said government officials, who had been worried both about the prospects for exports amid downgraded global growth forecasts and domestic demand, should be pleased.
They were pleased with Bank Negara Malaysia’s rate cut earlier this month but want further pre-emptive support to ensure stable growth momentum.
Some of the central bank’s staff think this unnecessary, since the economy looks on track to hit the official growth estimate of 4-4.5 per cent for this year.
Najib’s ability to shake off his critics so far is rooted in a strong economy and in keeping unemployment down, so the government will keep pushing for further rate cuts and this is likely to prevail before the end of the year, the FT report predicted.
In Indonesia, the central bank signalled that further interest rate cuts were possible after it held steady last Thursday, but noted that market rates have been responding to the 100 basis points worth of easing already undertaken this year.
The report said the recent tax amnesty bill had helped improve investor sentiment
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 26, 2016, 10:37:51 AM



Brokerage advocates selective stock selection for better returns
By Supriya Surendran / The Edge Financial Daily   | July 26, 2016 : 10:08 AM MYT   
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 26, 2016.

 

KUALA LUMPUR: JF Apex Securities Bhd, which is maintaining a neutral view on the market outlook for the second half of the year (2H16), is advocating selective stock selection to have a stock return that outperforms the market amid the current mature bull market.

The brokerage has reduced its year-end FBM KLCI target to 1,730 from 1,770 points following a downgrade on corporate earnings.

“Since our target FBM KLCI offers limited upside to current market index, ie less than 5%, and broader market sentiment still remains cautious due to heightened volatility, we believe bottom-up approach in stock selection shall prevail over the longer term by ignoring market noises and risk-on risk-off trade,” it said.

A bottom-up approach is an investment strategy that focuses on the analysis of individual stocks rather than on the industry in which that company operates or on the economy as a whole.

Releasing its 2H16 Market Outlook & Strategy yesterday, JP Apex advised investors to adopt a combination of defensive and active investment strategies.

They should look at value stocks which are trading at a lower price relative to their book value earnings, and at growth stocks which yield brighter earnings prospects and high yielding, it said.

They should also go for high-yielding stocks with resilient business models — companies with stable earnings coupled with positive operating cash flow which are unfazed by the slowdown in economic growth.

Corporate earnings-wise, JP Apex said it envisages the forecast 2016 (2016F) market earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a meagre 2.1% (revised down from 4.9%) following the disappointing first quarter ended March 31, 2016 earnings posted by the FBM KLCI component stocks.

“For 2017F and 2018F, market EPS is envisaged to grow at respective 6.3% (revised down from 8.0%) and 7.9% based on our forecast,” it said.

The firm expects the foreign selling momentum to taper off moving into 2H16 and possible reversal of foreign fund flows on the back of yield seeking amid prevailing low interest rate atmosphere globally and negative bond yield in developed markets.

“Current foreign shareholdings in local equity market stand at about 22% to 23% nearing the 20% to 21% low during Lehman Crisis in 2009 and trending downwards from the peak of about 25% in mid-2013.

“In addition, ample domestic liquidity with the recent overnight policy rate cut by Bank Negara Malaysia and well-capitalised government-linked investment funds especially in the likes of ValueCap Sdn Bhd could also support the local equity market and mitigate downside risk,” it said.

However, JP Apex cautioned that the FBM KLCI might not be the preferred choice among foreign investors due to its pricey valuations against regional peers.

“The local bourse is now trading at 16.2 times 2016 price-earnings ratio (PER) and 15.1 times 2017 PER, the second- or third-highest PER after the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 26, 2016, 10:39:03 AM



Bursa expects challenging 2H, IPOs to be unexciting
By Gho Chee Yuan / The Edge Financial Daily   | July 26, 2016 : 10:04 AM MYT   
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Tajuddin: There was a discussion about the regulatory arm with the Securities Commission of Malaysia. Photo by Kenny Yap

Tajuddin: There was a discussion about the regulatory arm with the Securities Commission of Malaysia. Photo by Kenny Yap

Tajuddin: There was a discussion about the regulatory arm with the Securities Commission of Malaysia. Photo by Kenny Yap
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on July 26, 2016.

 

KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia Bhd, whose net profit came in flat at RM49.5 million in its second quarter ended June 30, 2016 (2QFY16), expects market conditions to remain challenging in the second half of this year.

“The issues that affected market [sentiments] during the first half of the year are expected to remain in the second half of the year,” said its chief executive officer Datuk Tajuddin Atan at Bursa Malaysia’s first half results briefing yesterday.

He said foreign inflows were strong during 1QFY16, but several big events that took place during 2QFY16 have affected investors sentiments.

Among them were the announcement of a new central bank governor, Brexit, and the MSCI’s decision to reduce its weightage on Malaysian blue chips, besides volatile palm oil prices, which have sparked foreign fund outflow.

“Total net foreign outflow for the first half of the year stood at RM100 million,” he added.

Nevertheless, he believes the Top 70 or 100 stocks listed on the exchange still provide good opportunities to investors to park their monies, as they provide an average 3% return.

As for new initial public offerings (IPO), Tajuddin said the stock exchange does not think there will be anything exciting for the remainder of the year, as current market condition has put off many corporates from raising funds from capital markets.

“I am getting my team out [to see] whether we can still work on slightly more [IPOs], but we may not see the results immediately,” he said.

Year to date (YTD), Bursa saw seven new listings. Last year, Bursa attracted 13 companies to list on its Main and ACE Markets, down from 15 in 2014. Total funds raised from new listings, YTD, fell 31.9% to RM7.5 billion from RM11 billion in 1HFY15.

In comparison, the Singapore Exchange (SGX) saw some 12 IPOs and reverse takeovers so far this year, while the Indonesian stock exchange recorded 10 IPOs; the Thai stock exchange achieved nine.

Bursa’s net profit for 2QFY16 came in at RM49.48 million, compared with RM49.49 million in 2QFY15, as equities transaction value slipped, though revenue gained 2.13% to RM129.72 million from RM127.02 million.

For the cumulative six months (1HFY16), its net profit improved 3% to RM99.41 million from RM96.54 million in 1HFY15, as revenue rose 3.8% to RM263.65 million from RM254.11 million.

It declared an interim dividend of 17 sen per share, payable on Aug 19.

On whether Bursa Malaysia will follow in SGX’s footsteps in transferring its regulatory unit to a new subsidiary, Tajuddin is keeping the option open, as he noted Bursa is looking for an appropriate model that it suits most.

“There was a discussion about the regulatory arm with the Securities Commission of Malaysia (SC),” Tajuddin admitted, but said the talks was aimed at enhancing its corporate governance, and that nothing was concluded.

Further, he said the SC had made it mandatory for Bursa’s board to have four public interest directors to oversee and safeguard public’s interest.

“All our board members, except myself, are independent directors,” he said, noting this differentiated Bursa from other bourses.

The Edge Financial Daily reported yesterday Bursa may follow in the footsteps of SGX in transferring its regulatory unit into a new subsidiary to separate its regulatory function from its commercial activities. The SC was reportedly in favour of the move.

Meanwhile, Bursa said in a statement it was investigating the cause of disruption to the accessibility of its website after a day-long “slowness and intermitted access” yesterday.

“An investigation is in progress to assess the cause of the disruption to access to the website. We regret any inconvenience caused,” it added
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 26, 2016, 11:26:32 AM



Bursa shares falls 1.8% despite CIMB Research raising target price
By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com   | July 26, 2016 : 11:02 AM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (July 26):Shares in Bursa Malaysia Bhd fell 1.8% at mid-morning today, despite CIMB IB Research raising its target price for the stock to RM8.86 (from RM8.44) and saying that it expects Bursa Malaysia to record stronger earnings in second half of the current financial year ended Dec 31, 2016 (FY16).

At 10.16 a.m., shares in the stock exchange regulator fell five sen or 0.56% at RM8.84. It had earlier slipped 16 sen or 1.8% to a low of RM8.73, shortly after opening bell.

Trading volume was 199,700 shares, making it one of the top losers across the exchange. It had a market value of RM4.76 billion.

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In a note to clients today, CIMB Research said it expects Bursa to post stronger earnings in 2HFY16 on anticipation of a more vibrant equity market, with the theme of government pump priming.

Although the firm is bullish on Bursa's outlook, it kept its "Hold" call unchanged, given the stock's high valuation of 20.6 times of financial year 2017 (FY17) price to earnings ratio (P/E) and 5.7 times of FY17 price to book value (P/BV).

CIMB Research also retained Bursa Malaysia's FY16 to FY18 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts at 40 sen, 43 sen and 46 sen respectively.

It, however, narrowed the discount to 5-year average P/E of 21.4 times, from 10% to 5%, to arrive at target FY17 P/E of 20 times, given better equity market outlook.

"This leads to a higher target price of RM8.86," it added.

Bursa’s net profit for 2QFY16 came in at RM49.48 million, compared with RM49.49 million in 2QFY15, as equities transaction value slipped, though revenue gained 2.13% to RM129.72 million, from RM127.02 million.

For the cumulative six months (1HFY16), its net profit improved 3% to RM99.41 million, from RM96.54 million in 1HFY15, as revenue rose 3.8% to RM263.65 million, from RM254.11 million.

It declared an interim dividend of 17 sen per share, payable on Aug 19
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: Oly Shyte on July 26, 2016, 11:43:34 AM
Veri near to time!  :clap: :cash:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 28, 2016, 11:31:23 AM



 0 0 0 New
Brexit and China slowdown to impact Malaysian economy
FMT Reporters | July 28, 2016
The Japan Center for Economic Research says, with the GST and a large household debt load, a quick consumption recovery is unlikely.
Kuala lumpur

TOKYO: Malaysia looks likely to feel the biggest effects from Brexit and China’s economic slowdown in the region, with its real GDP growth rate falling to 4.1 per cent.
This is the view of the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER).
It says the UK’s decision to leave the European Union has cast uncertainty over Malaysian and other key Asian economies.
Though the Brexit vote has had little immediate impact on these countries’ stock prices and exchange rates, the decision is expected to depress growth through trade and the financial markets as the withdrawal approaches, according to a report in the Nikkei Asian Review.
The JCER on Wednesday published its fourth short-term outlook for five Asian markets: China, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines.
The JCER report says China’s economy is expected to continue decelerating, following the slowdown in 2015, and this will impact Malaysia and other Southeast Asian nations.

Malaysia, says the report, is in for a pinch as the 4.1 per cent annual growth projected for 2016 and 2017 is down from a relatively high 5 per cent last year. The projected rate would be the lowest since 2009, when the global crisis sent the figure plunging to minus 1.5 per cent.
Malaysia heavily depends on exports, which account for about 70 per cent of its GDP. The ratio of exports to the UK and other EU countries as a percentage of GDP is just below 7 per cent — the highest among the four major ASEAN countries surveyed, says the JCER report.
Out of the four, Malaysia also has the most credit from British banks and makes the most direct investment in the UK. This is why it is the most exposed to Brexit.
Malaysia also depends heavily on exports to China, whose 2017 growth rate is projected to slow to 6 per cent.
The JCER found that since the introduction of the goods and services tax in April 2015, Malaysia’s consumption has turned sluggish. The large household debt load means a quick consumption recovery is unlikely. Budget austerity will also weigh on investment, it adds.
However, delayed US rate hikes and the rise in crude oil prices will help to stem the ringgit’s depreciation — making a generally positive impact on Malaysia’s fiscal balance and corporate earnings.
But, it warned, if the ringgit were to rapidly strengthen against the dollar, it would hamper already slowing exports.
The JCER report added: “Political risk must also be taken into account. Prime Minister Najib Razak remains shrouded in suspicion over a graft scandal dogging state-owned investment company 1MDB.”
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 28, 2016, 12:01:13 PM



1MDB scandal may see us a credit rating and outlook downgrade
 1mdb doj
 0 comments      Dzulkefly Ahmad     Published Today 11:19 am     Updated Today 11:35 am

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COMMENT With the spectre of all the events that have unfolded very recently, are we about to witness a very troubled nation going into a tailspin? God forbid. But let us face the facts and arguably the imminent outcomes.

Malaysian democracy has indeed been in dire straits for a prolonged while and the systemic failure, if not seriously mitigated, could very well result in a downgrading of Malaysia's sovereign rating and credit outlook.

Firstly, when the attorney-general of Malaysia was visibly clueless, and rebutted the civil suit filed by the attorney-general of the United State of America as "insinuations and allegations", Malaysia's most critical institution is regrettably perceived as dysfunctional



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/350199#ixzz4Ffj3ChHJ
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 29, 2016, 01:34:18 PM



 76 9 3 88
Malaysia seems to be sinking fast
July 29, 2016
The 1MDB saga and other issues paint a picture of a nation that is in deep trouble, without a solution in sight.
COMMENT
Dzulkefly Ahmad

by Dzulkefly Ahmad
Now that events have unfolded to give us a better understanding of the scandal associated with 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), we may ask a pertinent question: is our troubled nation going into a tail-spin? God forbid.
But let us face the facts and consider the possible outcomes.
US prosecutors alleged last week that more than USD3.5 billion (RM14.6 billion) had been siphoned from 1MDB. They said the money, which was meant to benefit the Malaysian people, was diverted towards the purchase of real estate and artwork and to pay casino bills.
It is most damning to the Malaysian government that the US lawsuits represent an attempt to make the biggest ever forfeiture of assets that had gone through that country’s financial system. Consider how big a shame it is to Malaysia that it is the US Department of Justice, not our Attorney-General’s Chambers, that is assuming the role of plaintiff, seeking to forfeit assets amounting to USD1 billion (RM4 billion).
And when our AG, Apandi Ali, described the US allegations as “insinuations”, one of Malaysia’s most critical institutions became regrettably perceived as being on the brink of disaster. Apandi should have been ashamed to hear his US counterpart, Loretta Lynch, asserting that the ultimate goal of the civil suits was to return the money to the people of Malaysia.

The revelations in the US have given us enough reason to suspect that something was amiss in the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission’s decision to absolve 1MDB of any wrongdoing.
The police, meanwhile, are preoccupied with apprehending those who express legitimate dissent on the issue, using draconian laws such as the Sedition Act and the Prevention of Terrorism Act. There’s little doubt that the National Security Council Act will also be used to suppress dissent when it comes into effect. Malaysia is virtually becoming a police state.
In addition, numerous attempts to get the Speaker of Parliament to allow debate on the issue have come to naught, strengthening the impression that the legislative branch of government is nothing more than a rubber stamp for the executive branch.
And there’s more bad news. According to an exposé by Sarawak Report, the cost of the East Coast Rail Project has been inflated from RM30 billion to RM60 billion in an alleged secret deal with China. The purpose of the deal, it further alleged, was to enable the payment of 1MDB’s debts.
The rotting of Malaysia has been going on for some time, and it looks like we have reached a critical stage. We may be witnessing the final phase of a state’s failure.
The fact is that Malaysian democracy has been in dire straits for a long time and our systemic failures, if not seriously addressed, could well result in a downgrading of Malaysia’s sovereign rating and credit outlook.
A downgrade by rating agencies will be all it takes to trigger an implosion of the economy. The trouble is that no viable solution is in sight.
Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad is the Strategy Director of Parti Amanah Negara
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 29, 2016, 05:42:15 PM



2016-07-29 17:01
惠誉降债评.经济学家:大马应未雨绸缪
国际信贷评估机构惠誉(Fitch)调低马币单位主权债券,及国家石油和几家保险公司债券评级。
(吉隆坡29日讯)国际信贷评估机构惠誉(Fitch)调低马币单位主权债券,及国家石油和几家保险公司债券评级,经济学家认为,虽然这些调整与大马经济及相关公司的基本因素无关,不过,有关当局也有必要提高警惕,谨慎检视改善任何潜在漏洞与弱点。

广告

评估制度标准更严格

经济学家表示,上述调整主要是惠誉本身更严格地调整其评估制度标准所致,大马经济及相关公司的基本因素没有太大关系,大马经济和国油在过去一年或半年基本因素,并没有出现显著变化。

惠誉将大马政府长期马币债券评级,从“A”

降至“A-”等级,以及其他评级受到降级公司,包括国油、马来亚银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融组)旗下两家伊斯兰保险公司、大马再保险公司MNRB控股(MNRB,6459,主板金融组)的评级被降低一级。

丰隆研究主管兼经济学家徐克宇对《星洲财经》指出,惠誉上周下调大马政府长期本地债券评级,这主要是惠誉更改评估制度的标准,使23个国家包括大马的马币债券评级受到影响与调整。

广告

大马基本因素变化不大

徐克宇指出,其实,大马的宏观经济基本因素,与过去一年或半年的情况没有变差、或出现太大改变。随着惠誉更改其评级制度标准,除了大马政府债券外,政府相关公司的债券评级也相应地作出调整。

目前市场或投资者所关注的焦点,主要是其他国际评估机构的反应与行动,若是它们追随惠誉步伐下调评级,预料在某个程度上,市场还是会作出负面反应。

穆迪投资者服务(Moody)较早也下调了大马机场(AIRPORT,5014,主板贸服组)的信贷评级。



1MDB为目前主要焦点

一名不愿具名的经济学家指出,目前市场主要焦点是放在一马发展公司(1MDB)的进一步发展,市场担心这项政治因素,是否会最终影响到大马宏观经济政策的改变。

MIDF研究将马币兑美元汇率年杪预测维持在3.95水平,因为除了信贷债券评级之外,尚有其他因素在决定马币未来走势里,扮演更吃重的角色。

经济学家指出,惠誉假设大马财务恶化,其中原因包括假设2016年的布兰特原油价格定在每桶33美元的低水平。惠誉评级非常强调原油价格走低因素,惟经济学家认为,其实,目前大马政府财政已较少依赖石油及相关收入。

根据最新数据,大马联邦政府的总收入,来自油气领域仅占了11.9%至12.6%之间。大马政府在估计油价方面也非常务实,即原油价格预测定在每桶30美元至35美元之间低水平。

经济学家指出,逻辑上来说,信贷评级调整通常对外汇产生重大影响,因为它将让有关国家的资金流动出现变动。

“调低信贷评级,将意味着债券回酬率走高,从而影响资金流量,特别是投资者及投资机构重新平衡他们的投资组合。”

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经‧报道:李文龙‧2016.07.29
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 29, 2016, 09:32:17 PM



英国脱欧震荡亚洲
大马冲击或最大
4点看 2016年7月29日

(吉隆坡29日讯)日本经济研究中心最新预测显示,英国脱欧决定,引起了亚洲主要经济体的不确定性,其中对大马的冲击将最大。


《日经亚洲评论》报道,加上中国经济放缓,该中心预见大马感受到的冲击最大,实际国内生产总值将跌至4.1%。

日本经济研究中心昨日发表了5个亚洲市场,即中国、印尼、泰国、大马和菲律宾的短期前景报告。

报告指,大马今明年经济增长仅达4.1%,不但较去年的5%低,还是2009年以来最缓慢的增长率。

该中心解释,大马严重依赖出口,占了国内生产总值70%。尽管出口到英国和欧盟其他国家虽然低于7%,仍是东盟4国中最大。

加上大马大部分贷款来自英国银行,也是英国最大的外资直接投资来源之一,所以将受英国脱欧冲击最大。

泰国黯淡 印菲强劲

日本经济研究中心表示,尽管英国脱欧公投结果对这些国家的股汇市影响不大,但随着脱欧的时间逼近,贸易和金融市场将受冲击,进而压抑增长。

同时,今年中国的经济将继续放缓,将从去年的6.9%下跌0.4%,至6.5%,受累的上述东盟4国今年经济增长料与去年持平,平均为4.6%。

日本经究中心预计,除了大马,今年泰国经济持续黯淡,印尼和菲律宾经济则增长强劲。

因此,该中心预测,亚洲国家将加大宽松政策,包括降息。

RAM:欧盟放缓影响大

大马评估机构(RAM)认为,英国脱欧不会直接影响我国,不过,英国脱欧后造成欧盟增长放缓,就可能会冲击我国。

大马评估机构指,英国脱欧后产生的蔓延性风险,对我国出口和直接投资的影响有限。

不过,欧盟经济增长因而减速,就会潜在影响我国的经济趋势。

该机构表示,英国仅占我国2015年出口的1.2%,而欧盟却占了8.9%。

2011至2015年间,英国和欧盟占我国的对外直接投资比重,各别为3.8%和8%。

而欧洲一直是我国的主要外来直接投资来源,反观。英国在几年前就逐步减少投资。

大马评估机构表示,从财政的角度来看,英国脱欧并不会对大马“gA2”的全球主权评级,以及“seaAAA”的东盟主权评级带来影响。

尽管欧洲金融动荡,但因外币债务的比例偏低,仅占政府债务的3.1%,因而不会对大马政府的财政状况造成显著的冲击。

不过,大马评估机构将会持续监督欧盟增长减速带来的下滑风险,以及对大马宏观经济表现的影响。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on July 30, 2016, 08:32:25 AM



国内外因素纠缠
股市今年动荡难安
201点看 2016年7月29日
报道:姚思敏

(吉隆坡29日讯)富时隆综指7月份落后亚洲股市,分析员认为,综指将持续受到国内外因素纠缠,到年底为止估计仍无法摆脱动荡的格局。


总结7月亚洲股市,在英国公投决定脱欧之后,全球股市从初期的惊慌挫跌,逐步恢复稳定并收复失地。

由于市场认为,因为英国脱欧而出现的全球股灾,只属反应过度,因此,吸引资金纷纷投入风险较高而回酬也不俗的亚洲股市。

因此,亚洲主要股市在7月普遍走高,其中,日经指数上涨6.38%,达1万6569.27点;而曼谷综合指数和香港恒生指数,则分别攀升5.47%和5.28%。

然而,眼看亚洲股市逐一反弹之际,马股是唯一下跌的股市,在过去1个月下跌0.05%,并在7月的最后一个交易日以1653.26点挂收。

Fundsupermart.com高级分析员李天翔向《南洋财经》表示,这主要是因为国内政治因素升温,加上一个马来西亚发展有限公司(1MDB)事件持续发酵,所以相比其他国家,马股难以吸引外资大肆流入。

此外他说,大马交易所的大型股也下跌,主要是受到金融和电信领域的拖累,因为投资者不看好未来净利展望。

“我认为,大型股未来净利展望欠佳,潜在投资回酬将低于其他亚洲股市。”

中小型股更诱人

相反的,李天翔认为中小型股比大型股更具吸引力,基金经理被这些股视为被埋没的宝石。

整体而言,他认为,综指到今年结束为止,估计持续陷入动荡格局。

“除了今年初出现的中国市场动荡,以及英国脱欧之外,接下来美国总统大选亦将左右马股,假设出现不受欢迎的成绩,将拖累马股。”

料1650-1670点横摆

资深抽佣经纪陈玉麟则表示,综指一般上会在8月和9月显得淡静,加上预计企业交不出亮眼的业绩,所以相信会陷入横摆走势。

“在缺乏新的推动力,我预计综指会在1650至1670点之间横摆。”

他指,马股面对的风险升温,包括全球经济放缓、国行降息意味我国经济将走低、企业业绩不理想等。

陈玉麟说,1MDB风波已经抵消了国家银行7年来首次降息25个基点的激励,而且影响外资对大马市场的投资情绪,这是综指面对最大阻碍。

不过,他相信美国总统大选在11月8日举行之前,美国股市将升多跌少,所以也有助于扶持综指。

留意建筑基建股

在应对动荡的市场格局,李天翔建议,投资者可采取缓冲策略(Buffer Strategy)。

他举例,把部分钱投资在回酬和风险较高的大型股,并把部分资金放在比较安全的资产,例如债市、定期存款等。

此外,他也建议投资者分散投资的时机,不要一次过把钱投入股市。

他说,假设投资者有1万令吉,可分批在马股不同的下跌时期,投入部分资金,以免一次过损失手上所有的资金。

至于可投资的领域,他认为,可留意建筑和基建股,因为政府颁发大型基建工程,包括轻快铁第三路线(LRT3)、捷运第二路线(MRT2)、隆新高铁(HSR),可支撑盈利表现。

本周,政府陆续颁发砂拉越州泛婆罗洲大道(Pan-Borneo highway)第一期工程,赢家包括金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股)、WCT控股(WCT,9679,主板建筑股)、纳音控股(NAIM,5073 ,主板产业股)等。

陈玉麟则说,由于缺乏新的催化剂,所以投资者更需要多下苦工,投资在赚钱的公司。

“由于令吉兑美元疲弱,所以我看好出口股,因为比其他领域拥有更大的优势。”


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on August 03, 2016, 03:45:08 PM



2016-08-03 14:52
大马全年经济增长目标下修
7月日经大马制造业采购经理指数(PMI)稍见好转,经济学家普遍预期未来制造业可能缓步复苏,但碍于消费者情绪依旧低迷,以及外围环境持续严峻,相信领域短期强劲复苏可能性不高,并纷纷下修全年经济增长目标。
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(吉隆坡3日讯)7月日经大马制造业采购经理指数(PMI)稍见好转,经济学家普遍预期未来制造业可能缓步复苏,但碍于消费者情绪依旧低迷,以及外围环境持续严峻,相信领域短期强劲复苏可能性不高,并纷纷下修全年经济增长目标。

虽然日经大马制造业PMI指数连续16个月处于负面疆域,但肯纳格研究认为,7月指数已升至48.1的4个月高位,开始显现出制造业营运环境改善的迹象,预期未来领域可能缓步复苏。

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.08.03
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on August 09, 2016, 07:19:50 AM




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Foreign buying on Bursa Malaysia rises
Posted on 9 August 2016 - 05:38am
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PETALING JAYA: The momentum for foreign tide-in to Bursa Malaysia ticked up last week, in contrast to the receding tide to Asia amid saturating risk appetite, said MIDF Research.

“The net amount purchased by foreign investors edged up further to RM301.8 million from RM105.5 million the week prior. The estimates are based on transactions in the open market which excluded off market deals,” it said in its fund flow report yesterday.

Foreign net inflow, though appeared marginal in general, has been extended to the fifth successive week.

MIDF Research said foreign investors showed preference for Malaysia by actively loading up RM160.8 million on Bursa last Monday.

The buying momentum reversed on Tuesday with a net selling of RM22.3 million and selling pressure continued to pile up on Wednesday as foreigners on net sold another RM56.7 million.

“However, the selling momentum appeared transient as foreign investors turned net buyers again on Thursday with a net purchase of RM117.6 million. The buying pace persisted into Friday as foreigners increased their holding by another RM102.4 million,” said MIDF Research.

So far this year, the cumulative net foreign inflow into shares listed on Bursa has surpassed the RM1 billion level. As of last Friday, the year-to-date cumulative flow into Bursa increased to an estimated RM1.26 billion from RM959.3 million the week prior.

In retrospect, foreigners had offloaded RM19.5 billion and RM6.9 billion in 2015 and 2014 respectively.

“Meanwhile, foreign participation rate has demonstrated a sign of fatigue. It dropped significantly to RM761.2 million from RM945.6 million the week prior,” it said.

“It was the weakest participation rate thus far this year. The rate has been staying below the RM1 billion level for the eight time in the past nine weeks,” it added.

Local institution remained net sellers for the fifth consecutive week, with the selling pace increasing to RM334.9 million from RM92 million in the preceding week.

Its participation rate surged to RM2.21 billion from RM1.98 billion the week prior, the highest since May 13 this year
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: DR KIM on August 09, 2016, 07:30:09 AM



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Foreign buying on Bursa Malaysia rises
Posted on 9 August 2016 - 05:38am
Print
PETALING JAYA: The momentum for foreign tide-in to Bursa Malaysia ticked up last week, in contrast to the receding tide to Asia amid saturating risk appetite, said MIDF Research.

“The net amount purchased by foreign investors edged up further to RM301.8 million from RM105.5 million the week prior. The estimates are based on transactions in the open market which excluded off market deals,” it said in its fund flow report yesterday.

Foreign net inflow, though appeared marginal in general, has been extended to the fifth successive week.

MIDF Research said foreign investors showed preference for Malaysia by actively loading up RM160.8 million on Bursa last Monday.

The buying momentum reversed on Tuesday with a net selling of RM22.3 million and selling pressure continued to pile up on Wednesday as foreigners on net sold another RM56.7 million.

“However, the selling momentum appeared transient as foreign investors turned net buyers again on Thursday with a net purchase of RM117.6 million. The buying pace persisted into Friday as foreigners increased their holding by another RM102.4 million,” said MIDF Research.

So far this year, the cumulative net foreign inflow into shares listed on Bursa has surpassed the RM1 billion level. As of last Friday, the year-to-date cumulative flow into Bursa increased to an estimated RM1.26 billion from RM959.3 million the week prior.

In retrospect, foreigners had offloaded RM19.5 billion and RM6.9 billion in 2015 and 2014 respectively.

“Meanwhile, foreign participation rate has demonstrated a sign of fatigue. It dropped significantly to RM761.2 million from RM945.6 million the week prior,” it said.

“It was the weakest participation rate thus far this year. The rate has been staying below the RM1 billion level for the eight time in the past nine weeks,” it added.

Local institution remained net sellers for the fifth consecutive week, with the selling pace increasing to RM334.9 million from RM92 million in the preceding week.

Its participation rate surged to RM2.21 billion from RM1.98 billion the week prior, the highest since May 13 this year

BE  GREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDY   :cash: :cash: :cash: :cash: :cash:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on August 14, 2016, 03:11:13 PM



arkets   
Big funds emerge as net sellers
By Mathenny K
Friday, 12 Aug 2016, 12:30 AM
         

The EPF sold 16.3 million shares in Public Bank from Aug 5 to 11
Some of the biggest funds in the country have emerged as net sellers of Bursa Malaysia stocks last week except for Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) or Retirement Fund Inc.

Filings with Bursa Malaysia from Aug 5 to 11 saw the Employees Provident Fund Board (EPF), Lembaga Tabung Haji (LTH) and Amanahraya Trustees Bhd-Amanah Saham Bumiputera (Amanahraya) selling a total 243.52 million shares.

Among the stocks disposed by EPF was Petronas Chemicals Bhd (16.86 million), Public Bank Bhd (16.3 million), CIMB Group Holdings Bhd (15.05 million), YTL Corp Bhd (14.19 million), DRB-Hicom Bhd (13.36 million), Tenaga Nasional Bhd (9.54 million), IOI Corp Bhd (8.99 million), IGB REIT (8.21 million), Malakoff Corp Bhd (7.01 million), UMW Holdings Bhd (5.6 million), Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM)(4.73 million) and another 59.25 million shares in other companies.

Amanahraya reduced its holdings by 47.07 million shares in 11 counters – Tenaga Nasional (16.82 million), TM (13.56 million), Gamuda Bhd (4.79 million), Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (three million), IJM Corp Bhd (2.03 million) and another 6.87 million shares in other companies.


For the full story, please subscribe to Focus Malaysia
- See more at: http://www.focusmalaysia.my/Markets/Big%20funds%20emerge%20as%20net%20sellers#sthash.n8ChigJh.dpuf
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: The-Keyman on August 14, 2016, 04:17:37 PM


arkets   
Big funds emerge as net sellers
By Mathenny K
Friday, 12 Aug 2016, 12:30 AM
         

The EPF sold 16.3 million shares in Public Bank from Aug 5 to 11
Some of the biggest funds in the country have emerged as net sellers of Bursa Malaysia stocks last week except for Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) or Retirement Fund Inc.

Filings with Bursa Malaysia from Aug 5 to 11 saw the Employees Provident Fund Board (EPF), Lembaga Tabung Haji (LTH) and Amanahraya Trustees Bhd-Amanah Saham Bumiputera (Amanahraya) selling a total 243.52 million shares.

Among the stocks disposed by EPF was Petronas Chemicals Bhd (16.86 million), Public Bank Bhd (16.3 million), CIMB Group Holdings Bhd (15.05 million), YTL Corp Bhd (14.19 million), DRB-Hicom Bhd (13.36 million), Tenaga Nasional Bhd (9.54 million), IOI Corp Bhd (8.99 million), IGB REIT (8.21 million), Malakoff Corp Bhd (7.01 million), UMW Holdings Bhd (5.6 million), Telekom Malaysia Bhd (TM)(4.73 million) and another 59.25 million shares in other companies.

Amanahraya reduced its holdings by 47.07 million shares in 11 counters – Tenaga Nasional (16.82 million), TM (13.56 million), Gamuda Bhd (4.79 million), Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (three million), IJM Corp Bhd (2.03 million) and another 6.87 million shares in other companies.


For the full story, please subscribe to Focus Malaysia
- See more at: http://www.focusmalaysia.my/Markets/Big%20funds%20emerge%20as%20net%20sellers#sthash.n8ChigJh.dpuf

EPF practice the same manner during Mar'16 that time when Bursa Index standing around 1700 ~ 1729 between but a lot of people not convinced after Apr'16 came down to 1630 ~ 1650

But...........

I strongly believe this round more worse & depression coming soon within 1 ~ 2 months time


****************************************TIME WILL TELL YOU TRUE*************************************
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: shilau on August 15, 2016, 03:37:29 PM
drbcomc19, drbcomc21
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on August 19, 2016, 07:36:34 AM



Foreign funds view Bursa Malaysia as 'less attractive' than regional peers
Posted on 19 August 2016 - 05:37am
Lee Weng Khuen
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
KUALA LUMPUR: While Malaysia's bond market is compelling to foreign funds, Affin Hwang Asset Management Bhd chief investment officer David Ng said the attractiveness of the local equity market is lower than that of other regional markets.

Speaking at a media briefing on the global market outlook for the second half of 2016, he said foreign funds could come back in the second half of the year if good growth is demonstrated.

"Other Asean markets have done well, so from the valuation standpoint, Malaysia is a laggard," he said.

Nevertheless, Ng noted Malaysia's relatively good bond yields are drawing fund managers' interest.

"Foreign inflows into Malaysian government bonds have been very strong. Foreign ownership is at an all-time high of 51%," he said.

Returns for 10-year Malaysian government securities, which yield 3.5%, are definitely better than the negative interest rate offered by 40% of developed market government bonds, he added.

Ng said Malaysia needs to figure out ways to draw foreign investments by capitalising on human capital following the pullback of investments within the oil and gas space. "Malaysia needs to look seriously at how to move the economy forward … tourism, education and healthcare could offer some opportunities."

Ng favours Malaysia's dividend yielding stocks such as IGB Real Estate Investment Trust and Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (F&N). Besides that, he foresees the infrastructure and construction theme amid sluggish economic environment.

"People are prepared to pay a premium for companies of higher earnings certainty and F&N is of one of those examples," he said, noting that there are a handful of small and mid-cap stocks that pay high dividend yields, such as Classic Scenic Bhd.

While the aggregate corporate earnings for Malaysia may not be fantastic, Ng believes there will still be sectors with good earnings growth. One of his top picks is Tenaga Nasional Bhd, which gives earnings certainty and potentially higher dividend.

He, however, cautioned that the biggest risk that could trigger a reversal in fund flows is the potential US interest rate increase. "If the US raises interest rate, then the stronger US dollar will be negative for the emerging market assets," he said.

On the economic front, Ng is of the view that Malaysia's gross domestic product could sustain 4% growth this year, driven by the acceleration in government spending.

He believes there will be no further reduction in the Overnight Policy Rate following a 25-basis point cut to 3% last month. "Unless there is any negative development globally, I don't see them cutting interest rate another time this year," he said
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on August 21, 2016, 08:18:01 PM



股市的春天不远了?/草根牛马
369点看 2016年8月21日

黄金十年●草根牛马
齐力(PMETAL)在上周二宣布半年业绩,第二季的营业额果然突破新高,涨至15.85亿令吉;半年达28.75亿令吉。三军用命之下,盈利也大为增长至1.46亿令吉(每股11.24仙)。

如果一切顺利,全年营业额有希望站在60亿以上,印证了我前周的预言。


不过,市场对其业绩在预料之中,没有带来惊喜而有点失望,因此股价涨了一点就调整。

我们决定再买入1000股齐力凭单(每股3.07令吉)。

与此同时,我们也继续买入大红花石油(HIBSCUS)2万股(每股20仙);怡丰国际(VIVOCOM)2万股(每股30仙)。

上周综指姿态大勇,一度挑战1700点,正说明了公牛,总在母熊肆虐以后,不知不觉回返。

只是,市场似乎还没有准备好下一轮涨势,因此在挑高了以后,指数调整,徘徊在1690至1700点之间。

就算这样,一些被压已久的股票已经大力反弹,其中包括换了总执行长的土展创投(FGV),在放弃了许多不合逻辑的并购以后,股价脱胎换骨,从1.40令吉的谷底回弹至今,已经是2.30令吉,涨了64%!

油气股似乎回勇

另外,一些被卖压惨重的油气股,似乎也开始回勇,股市的春天,真的不远了吗?

写这篇稿时,正上映着奥运男双羽球决赛,我国和中国选手交手。

我国选手宛若脱胎换骨,给予中国队极大的挑战,甚至两度逼近冠军分数,虽然最后过于紧张,咬不下致胜一分,金牌饮恨,不过其拼搏精神值得全场尊敬。

看了混双和男双的表现,我国男单一哥虽然肩负赢取国家第一枚奥运金牌的使命,不过,这次应该会放松自己,不会因为压力而表现失利,因为国家选手后继有人,自己不再孤军作战了。


怡丰国际脱胎换骨

本周要谈的怡丰国际(VIVOCOM),也是一个脱胎换骨的故事。下回谈的大红花石油,更是另一个脱胎换骨的故事。

怡丰国际,前身是INSTACOM,而在INSTACOM倒置收购之前,是叫做IPOWER。

IPOWER在2005年1月以43仙挂牌上市,股价曾经高涨至1令吉以上。两年以后,在2007年1月,公司进行2送3红股,让股东乐翻了。

可是,公司在2007年尾进行3配3附加股,每附加股送1凭单的建议之后,一场2008年金融海啸让公司沉寂下来。

擅于资本管理

之后的两三年公司业绩大大逊退,亏损连年,最后在2012年要10变1削资重组,同年被INSTACOM倒置收购,IPOWER这个名字由光辉到陨落,正式走入历史。

2012年,INSTACOM正式取代IPOWER,成为上市新贵。由于是倒置收购上市,INSTACOM以本身建筑电信塔的业务,承诺一定的营业额和盈利担保。

公司也擅于资本管理,在2013年建议2送1免费凭单(WB)以讨股东欢心,股价因而一度创上40仙高峰。不过,在盈利担保的期限过了以后,当时公司营业额已经走下坡,从2013年的1.2亿令吉,下滑到2014年的6585万令吉。

因此,INSTACOM建议发新股(每股19仙),收购一家新公司NEATA 铝业(马)有限公司的35%股权以多元化业务,同时又再5送1免费凭单(WC)以奖励虽然没有股息,却对公司不离不弃的股东。

当时股价在16仙,凭单转换价是13仙,摆明是让股东有钱赚。我们也在2015年1月买进它(16仙),之后在1个月内把送的凭单(9仙)和股票(16.5仙)一起卖掉,赚了一些钱。这是我们之前和INSTACOM的渊源。

我们卖得及时(日后回顾,却不见得聪明),因为之后2015年股市波动激烈,INSTACOM的业绩持续疲弱。

公司在2015年3月宣布7配2附加股募资,每附加股送1凭单(WD)的建议;附加股在7月完成,此建议不为股东所喜,因此引发一轮抛售,股价大跌至10仙。(待续)

免责声明:

除了股票基本面,本文内容纯属虚构,所有提及股项纯属学术上或经验上的建议,读者若有兴趣投资,应该自行深入研究或询问股票经纪才决定,盈亏自负。

我们鼓励通过正确的投资方式创造财富,文中的建议,都有一个完整的买卖纪录。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on August 22, 2016, 07:26:56 AM



现金为王低价出售?/万年船
189点看 2016年8月22日

小股东大权利
在艰难的时期,现金为王是不是不变的金律?短短一个月内,我们见到了两宗贱价出售的买卖,令涉及的小股东很不是味道。

第一单的在7月29日,马包装工业(MAYPAK)的大股东Toyo Seikan (TSCL)以每股16.6仙,脱售马包装工业的54.95%股权 (约2310万股)给日本公司Taisei Lamick (TLC),总值才383.5万令吉。


这对公司净资产55仙,或宣布前股价45仙,是很大的折扣。不但如此,只用不到400万,就控制了一家在大马交易所主要板上市的公司(超过50%股权),不禁引起一连串的揣测。

接下来一单发生在上周四。马制铝(ALCOM)宣布,Towerpack 私人有限公司以每股61仙,或总值4772万令吉,向Novelis Inc 收购马制铝59.16%股权,完成之后,将向其余股东进行全面收购建议。

这个收购价也引起市场哗然,因为马制铝这家老牌公司,净资产有1.24令吉,近来股价也在80仙左右浮动,何以大股东愿意低价出售?

是不是现金为王?当大股东需要大笔钱周转时,手上掌握许多现金的买家闪电出手,猎得心中的猎物。

马制铝手持现金5000万

只不过,马包装工业的383万令吉转手,这么重要的上市工具如此拱手让人,未免让我们觉得前大股东不够大气,除非TLC私底下承担了TSCL借给马包装工业的3370万贷款,那才像话。

不过,详情尚未公布,这纯属猜测,未得证实之前,我们觉得16.6仙的出价太低了,一般财主也出得起这个价钱呢!

至于马制铝的收购,这个Towerpack的股东,原来是冠旺(CANONE)的老板杨锦和。此人来头不小,当年冠旺趁施氏兄弟阋墙时出手拿下建裕珍厂(KIANJOO)的32%,就是他的杰作。

这次是以他私人公司出手,大折价买得马制铝的控制权,可说又是其得意之作。

马制铝基本面可比马包装工业强得多,根据最新公司资料,公司没有贷款,同时手持现金5000万,或等于每股38仙,意味着杨氏的净出价才23仙,这样的买卖挑灯笼也找不到呀!


马制铝基本面可比马包装工业强得多,公司没有贷款,同时手持现金5000万。

本周股东大会焦点:

进入8月股东会议的高峰期,大概有整40家公司,其中包括手套股贺特佳(HARTA)和IJM种植(IJMPLANT)在8月23日召开股东大会;最近股价大领风骚的RCE资本则和IJM、菲马集团(KFIMA)、菲马(FIMACOR)等在8月24日召开会议。

25日的股东大会有全利资源(QL)、马国民再保险(MNRB)和东家(E&O);最后26日是PANAMY、星光资源(SKPRES)和雪兰莪铁船(SDRED)等。连27日(周六)也有公司开会,柔佛的东南物流(TNLOG)和槟城的亚洲文件夹(AFILE)。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on August 27, 2016, 02:32:22 PM



财经  2016年08月26日
阿都瓦希:3因素左右明年股市

阿都瓦希:3因素左右明年股市
阿都瓦希(左)和哈末卡玛皮雅出席ASW 2020收益分配记者会。(摄影:曾鉦勤)

(吉隆坡26日讯)国民投资公司(PNB)主席丹斯里阿都瓦希冀望,原棕油价格將持续目前上升的趋势,这將对种植业者的业绩表现有利。他指出,种植业者取得不俗的净利,才能派发更多股息予股东,包括国民投资公司。

与此同时,他认为,3大因素,即大宗商品价格、全球经济放缓、以及令吉匯率走势,將左右明年的股市走向。

他是今日出席国民投资公司宣布旗下基金的最新收益分配记者会上,如此表示。一同出席者包括国民投资公司总裁兼首席执行员丹斯里哈末卡玛皮雅。

阿都瓦希认为,明年股市將受到3大因素所影响,即大宗商品价格,尤其是原油价格料长时间维持较低水平,影响投资者情绪和市场走势。其二是全球经济放缓,尤其是中国的经济將影响国家经济状况。第3项因素则是令吉匯率走势,將取决于美联储升息预期、国內和全球经济增长及大宗商品价格走势。


不过,他相信,政府在1月份修订预算案等政策,有望巩固现有的经济状况。

ASW 2020派6.3仙收益分配

此外,阿都瓦希宣布,国民投资公司旗下2020宏愿信託基金(ASW2020),截至8月份的收益分配为每单位6.30仙,较去年的6.40仙,减少0.10仙。

「考虑到股市低迷,以及与其他风险投资项目和大马债券的收益率相比,这仍然是合理的收益分配。」

今年的收益分配將派发总额11亿4600万令吉,將有87万8000个基金持有人受惠,持有181亿9300个单位;並將在9月1日拨入单位持有人的账户內。至于通过僱员公积金局(EPF)投资的人士,这收益分配將存入他们的公积金户口。

询及未来是否有意推出固定价格单位信託基金时,哈末卡玛指出,该机构未有这项计划,现阶段则会专注在目前所提供的產品。

截至8月24日止,该基金的总收入达13亿9400万令吉。而由股票销售所获得的利润为7亿3583万令吉,或占当中的52.8%。从投资公司中所获得的收益为4亿5170万令吉,或佔32.4%;短期贷款利息收益为2亿零684万令吉,或佔14.8%。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 04, 2016, 09:57:32 AM



Edge Weekly
Looking for small caps with growing dividends
By Surin Murugiah  / theedgemarkets.com   | September 3, 2016 : 8:20 AM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Sept 3): The Edge weekly in its latest edition reported that traditional dividend stocks, such as Bursa Malaysia Bhd, Dutch Lady Milk Industries Bhd and Heineken Malaysia Bhd, have been performing well over the past year.

The magazine’s Alex Chong wrote that their outperformance against the FBM KLCI could be attributed to investors seeking safety in defensive yield stocks in an uncertain market with a mixed corporate earnings outlook.

Moreover, the surprise cut in the overnight policy rate by Bank Negara Malaysia in July would have resulted in lower fixed deposit rates, indirectly increasing the appeal of quality dividend-paying stocks, said the Edge in its cover story.

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It said with Malaysia’s gross domestic product growing a lethargic 4% in 2Q2016, there has been talk of another policy rate cut by year end.

It questioned that against a backdrop of slowing economic growth and potentially lower interest rates, where do investors look for yields or even better, growing dividends?

The weekly said as investors chase dividends in the big-cap space, the flight to “safe” stocks has sent their valuations up and their yields down.

It said this had raised the question as to whether these stocks can justify and sustain their premium valuations vis-à-vis investors’ high expectations of earnings growth.

The Edge said to find stocks that were more likely to have been mispriced, it turned to the small-cap space and filtered out companies with a market capitalisation of more than RM1 billion — stocks that are most likely on the radar screen of investors.

It then zoomed in on stocks with beta of less than 1.0, which indicates that their share prices exhibited less volatility against the benchmark FBM KLCI in the past two years.

The magazine said companies that generated a return on equity (ROE) of less than 4.6% — the effective bank lending rate in June — were also left out.

It said if companies are yielding an ROE that is lower than the cost of borrowings, it could mean that the underlying business models are unsustainable and are likely destroying shareholder value.

The best dividend stocks are the ones that pay growing dividends as the businesses continue to expand. Hence, we narrowed our list to those that generally have a history of consistently growing their dividends.

We also favoured companies that had a strong and cash-rich balance sheet as they could draw on their cash piles to maintain dividend payouts even if macroeconomic conditions worsened. The list is ranked by market capitalisation.

For the full story and the list of small caps with growing dividends, get a copy of the Edge for the week of Sept 5 – Sept 11 available at newsstands now
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 05, 2016, 10:02:36 AM



2016-09-05 07:00
看财报.小心地雷
在经典拆雷游戏中,玩家需在覆盖砖块的方框中,根据砖块显示的数字,躲开藏在地雷的埋伏,免得被地雷炸死,并赢得最后胜利。现实商业环境就好比地雷游戏,雷点随处可见,虽然各大企业财报已暴露不少雷点,并通过裁员、债务重组和削减成本等方式扫雷,但唯恐仍有余弹未清。因此,本期《投资致富》将审视上市公司第二季财报表现,并重点扫视投资雷区未爆弹。

(图:法新社)
次季财报乍喜还忧
投资地雷逐个拆

广告

全球经济不景,上市公司业绩难看,证券行已连年下修财测,同时企业也积极重组和削减成本,但过去2年企业盈利仍不断萎缩。

不过,今年次季企业财报表现似乎有所起色,马银行研究指出,次季核心盈利按年和按季反弹6.3%和4.9%,令今年上半年累积核心盈利仅下跌0.3%。

42%上市公司财报未达标

在马银行研究追踪的99只股项中,51%公司财报符合预期,另15%表现胜预期,仅有34%表现逊于预期。

分析员指出,多数上市公司财报均符合预期,显示最糟的情况可能已经过去,投资者可憧憬未来盈利走向复苏。

不过,丰隆研究表示,虽然第二季财报季表现有所好转,但总体表现仍叫人失望,42%上市公司财报表现未达标,只有17%公司财报捎来惊喜。

广告

联昌研究坦言,今年次季财报表现比首季来得差,在114家上市公司中多达40%财报不及格,上调与下调比例为0.35倍,为2008年首季来第四低,因此下砍2016和2017财政年盈利目标2%和1.6%,预期今年马股每股盈利将下跌1.3%,但2017年则有望复苏9.7%。

保险媒体科技公用事业最标青

以领域来看,MIDF研究指出,保险、媒体、科技与公用事业表现最为标青,但多数分析员则评选银行、石油与天然气、种植和产业仍为重大雷区,并潜存诸多地雷威胁,投资者宜提高警觉。

雷区1.油气

广告

国际油价从年初每桶二十多美元反弹至50美元以上水平,大马投行指出,油气业2016年次季表现普遍符合预期,涵盖的8大油气公司有75%表现符合预期,仅有海事重工(MHB,5186,主板贸服组)表现不达标。

总体来看,领域次季营运盈利(EBITDA)按季和按年下跌12%和16%,营业额则按季和按年减少2%和11%。

营运赚益也季减2%至36.7%,主要是国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服组)旗下阿芙拉型油轮(Aframax)租金减少,以及液化天然气(LNG)租约取消,但若将国际船务排除在外,领域赚益将增长1%。

不过,油气领域表现虽稍有起色,但国际油价仍距离每桶100美元高位折价近半,未来领域挑战依旧严峻。

余弹1:国际油价涨势未稳

油气业看油价吃饭,油价不见起色,上中下游各大环节也将受到牵连。大马投行说,市场盛传石油输出国组织(OPEC)本月会议可能达成冻产协议,带动国际油价反弹至每桶48美元水平,但国家石油公司(Petronas)总裁兼首席执行员拿督旺朱基菲尔强调,集团仍维持今年和明年每桶油价30和40美元目标不变。

“我们并不预期国油合理化上游勘探与发展开销的策略将出现大转弯,而今年上半年国内油气业的订单即猛挫30%至30亿令吉,其中多数为沙肯石油(SKPETRO,5218,主板贸服组)的钻井租约延长和新维修合约。”

大马投行认为,基于制造船坞、钻井、FPSO和岸外支援船舰的使用率低迷,预期油气公司未来可能需要为相关资产作出进一步拨备。

余弹2:高杠杆比未解

与此同时,新加坡Swiber控股清盘疑云,令大马同侪也蒙上阴影。国际油价已连续2年陷入熊市,分析员认为小型岸外服务公司表现可能持续落后大市,主要是高债务将继续蚕食现金储备。

分析员指出,今年第二季国内油气业新合约释出创下近4年来最低水平,加上设备使用率与租金处于多年低位,领域现有催化因素匮乏。

7公司净负债超总体市值

“就以并购来说,领域并购活动几乎消声匿迹,主要是业者已经没有额外的现金了。”

《彭博社》数据显示,在大马上市的油气公司中,至少有7家净负债已超过总体市值,其中包括沙肯石油、阿玛达(ARMADA,5210,主板贸服组)、华商机构(WASEONG,5142,主板工业产品组)和标志岸外(ICON,5255,主板贸服组)。

同时,至少有12家油气公司的负债收入比率达到3倍水平,远超基准富时综指的1.17倍,并以合顺油气和巴拉卡(BARAKAH,7251,主板贸服组)的13.71倍和12.52倍最高。

尽管沙肯石油等大资本公司已成功再融资绝大部份债务,但油气业的高杠杆比仍叫人忧虑。大马评估机构(RAM)指出,马股现有20%上市公司债务覆盖率低于平均值,另有8%积极杠杆,其中油气公司是对经济压力最脆弱,同时信贷指标也疲弱的领域。

此外,大马债券评估机构(MARC)下调环境海事资源(ALAM,5115,主板贸服组)总值5亿令吉的伊斯兰中期票据计划评级,从AIS降至BBB+,展望维持在“负面”,意在反映出其无力重建持续下跌的合约总量,进而导致财务情况趋疲的忧虑。

整体来看,大马投行认为,随着低油价已成为新常态,加上服务供应商开始通过成本合理化,以及整合业务来度过长期挑战,因此维持油气业“中和”评级。

雷区2:银行

银行业为富时综合指数最大成份领域,银行业次季净利按年下挫7.6%,为连续8个季度走跌,成为富时综指盈利增长绊脚石。

8大银行表现参差

环顾第二季财报,8大银行表现参差,马来亚银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融组)、兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融组)、丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融组)和大马银行(AMBANK,1015,主板金融组)盈利仍未摆脱低迷。

相比之下,大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融组)、联昌集团(CIMB,1023,主板金融组)、艾芬控股(AFFIN,5185,主板金融组)和安联金融(AFG,2488,主板金融组)盈利成功逆市走扬。

不过,仔细翻阅财报,不难发现银行业次季表现难甩低迷,宏观经济因素固然影响贷款增长和流动性,但资产素质恶化也是关键,而这些因素也将继续笼罩领域盈利前景。

余弹:基本面未见改善

肯纳格研究指出,与前期相比,银行业前景毫无改善,净利息赚益依旧下跌、流动性持续趋紧,信贷成本攀升,以及资产品质持续恶化等因素犹存。

“我们认为经济增长放缓、贷款增长停滞不前、流动性趋紧、净利息赚益萎缩等结构和周期性逆风挥之不去,银行业缺乏明显的催化因素,维持其‘中和’评级。”

其中,最值得关注的非资产恶化问题。第二季银行业净拨备从去年的9亿1580万令吉膨胀至16亿令吉,同时其他资产亏损拨备也从前期的6700万令吉提高至4亿9000万令吉,其中多数源自兴业银行针对新加坡Swiber债券作出2亿5350万令吉减值拨备,以及马来亚银行贷款亏损拨备激增至12亿9780万令吉。

大华继显研究认为,当前环境下,专注企业贷款且在油气业曝光偏高的银行俨然将成焦点,大马银行、马银行、艾芬控股、联昌集团和兴业银行的油气贷款比重介于3至5%之间,呆账还有上升风险,可能继续沉沦。

达证券相信,银行业总体资产素质呈现稳定恶化趋势,其中新净呆账按年攀升17.1%,比国行年增8.1%目标为高,平均总呆账率从前期的1.64%走扬至1.71%,而贷款亏损覆盖率从去年同期的94.4%下跌至84.9%。

“在宏观不明朗因素持续,以及消费者和商业情绪依旧低迷下,我们相信银行业营业额增长将持续缓慢。尽管领域维持2016关键绩效指标(KPI)目标不变,但我们预见资产素质可能恶化,盈利潜存下行风险。”

有鉴于此,达证券下调银行业2016和2017财政年净利目标3.4%和0.8%,主要归咎于马银行2016至2017财政年信贷收费从40至73个基点,下调至38至51个基点,但维持“中和”评级不变。

雷区3:种植

第二季种植业表现普遍落后大市,只有联合马六甲(UMCCA,2593,主板种植组)和森那美(SIME,4197,主板贸服组)表现胜预期,IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植组)、吉隆坡甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植组)、联土全球(FGV,5222,主板种植组)和怡保种植(IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植组)均逊于预期。

大众研究说,种植业次季盈利表现,主要受低鲜果串产量和高营运成本拖累。鲜果串产量平均年减18%,其中森那美产量跌幅最深,按年下挫27.2%,接着为陈顺风资源(TSH,9059,主板种植组)和吉隆坡甲洞的24.5%和21.5%。

虽然厄尔尼诺现象(El Nino)已经远离,但异常气候对鲜果串产量的影响是否已经告一段落,将是未来种植业盈利能否扭转乾坤的关键。

余弹:鲜果串产量未强劲复苏

达证券指出,今年第二季仅有4家种植公司录得鲜果串产量按季走扬,森那美和吉隆坡甲洞产量则停滞不前,若按年计,所有种植公司鲜果串产量均比去年低,主要是厄尔尼诺现象滞后效应依旧存在。

第三季鲜果串产量有望走扬

“但我们预期随着产量复苏,我们预见第三季鲜果串产量将走扬。”

同时,原棕油价格已反弹至每公吨2700令吉至2800令吉,今年累积涨幅达到27%,达证券相信在强劲出口、马币走疲和供应吃紧下,原棕油价将靠稳在现有水平,预见种植公司第三季盈利将普遍向好。

但MIDF研究指出,虽然原棕油第三季产量可能复苏,产量仍难与去年同期相比,预见盈利按年表现依旧疲弱。

“同时,随着原棕油在9月和10月进入产能高峰,加上联储局潜在升息几率提高,相信中期原棕油价可能回软。”

尽管种植领域总体前景改善,但达证券认为,市场已充份反映盈利涨势,加上国内种植股与区域同侪溢价仍高,总体估值毫无吸引力,因此维持领域“减码”评级。

雷区4:产业

达证券指出,今年第二季产业领域财报表现符合预期,7大产业股中只有建乐集团(SNTORIA,5213,主板产业组)表现逊于预期,但领域税前盈利按年下跌10.7%,主要归咎于实达集团(SPSETIA,8664,主板产业组)盈利下跌。

产业销售方面,次季产业销售年减7.9%,若扣除海外销售,国内销售按年下跌3%,其中IOI产业(IOIPG,5249,主板产业组)、实达集团和双威(SUNWAY,5211,主板产业组)销售涨幅介于11至64%,但华阳(HUAYANG,5062,主板产业组)和高美达(GLOMAC,5020,主板产业组)等小型发展商销售则大跌35至59%。

虽然产业领域盈利表现稍有好转,但实达集团下调全年销售目标5亿令吉至35亿令吉,突显出领域仍未摆脱调整格局,盈利前景仍有地雷拦路。

余弹:结构调整未歇

在消费者信心低迷,以及房贷配套不亲民的环境下,产业销售可能持续受到拖累,达证券预见总体产业销售将下跌6%,但领域庞大的未入账销售将确保未来1至2年的领域盈利能见度。

减息不足以扭转产业颓势

虽然国家银行今年7月减息25个基点,但肯纳格研究并不预见这将显著提振产业销售。以50万令吉房贷来看,减息将减少房贷供款2.5%或78令吉,一旦国行进一步减息25个基点,这将进一步调低每月供款3.3%,或累积5.7%或121令吉。

以同等的可负担比例来看,首次购屋者可负担的房屋价格将从50万令吉提高至53万令吉,这显然将可提高民众的可负担能力,但却不足以扭转整个产业颓势。

肯纳格研究说,有许多国家的利率更低,但产业市场买气更为低迷。尽管如此,国行减息仍可能带动消费者情绪,有望短期拉抬产业股股价表现。

“信贷收紧、人口结构变化、可负担问题依旧存在,相信产业领域将继续陷入结构性调整中,未来产业价格可能靠稳或转弱,迫使发展商可能需要牺牲赚益和地库来推介可负担产业来达到销售目标。”

同时,该行也不预期贷款环境将与上半年有显著的不同,购屋者难贷款的问题难解,也将进一步箝制产业领域表现。

结语:

虽然4大雷区仍有余弹未清,各大证券行却普遍看好2017年富时综指盈利将好转,显示出分析员们对领域未来前景仍有信心,但投资者在布局时仍需防御至上,才是应对瞬息万变的投资环境的上上之策。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧焦点策划‧报道:洪建文‧2016.09.04
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 08, 2016, 09:23:56 AM



1MDB债务缠身陷调查风暴
大马投资者信心下滑
610点看 2016年9月7日

(吉隆坡7日讯)据全球风险透视(Global Risk Insights)指出,自一个马来西亚发展有限公司(1MDB)债务缠身及陷入调查风暴后,马来西亚就出现投资者信心下滑的现象。


大马经济依然有活力

不过,它指出,有关损害不可能太长久,因为大马经济依然具有活力。

全球风险透视指出,根据彭博社早前的报道,一些投资者脱售手上的股票,转股其他东盟市场,尤其是印尼。

其报告说,尽管面对1MDB巨大的挑战,大马政治人物“依然存活至今”。然而,令许多政治观察员不感意外的是,首相拿督斯里纳吉依然“平平安安”,而且否认一切的不当行为。

报告也提到巫统有本身的方式来了“化解”政治危机,而这些反映在今年6月,纳吉大刀阔斧地展开内阁改组,把忠心者纳入内阁,反抗者则“踢出局”。

尽管纳吉的强硬手段令人关注,但是作为执政党的巫统却是影响大马经济的政党。

报告也提到外力介入,它指出,美国司法部就以“涉嫌挪用资金进行洗钱的国际阴谋”向1MDB提出民事诉讼,并把纳吉的继子里扎、大马年轻华裔富豪刘特佐及阿布扎比酋长国的2名政府官员,列为起诉对象。

“尽管马美在上述事件出现一些裂痕,但此案不太会影响美国在大马的投资。”


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 12, 2016, 02:20:12 PM



有准备不必怕股灾/草根牛马
576点看 2016年9月12日

黄金十年●草根牛马
进入9月,一年就要过完四分之三。美国就要举行总统选举,因此不会有什么大事发生,而美联储的升息大计,似乎是要尽量演习多几次“狼来了”的戏码,让这件牵动全世界经济的大事淡化。

以道琼斯指数能够站在1万8000点和那斯达克指数站上5000点近两个月,标准普尔500站在2000点以上近半年,美联储的计划已经收效。


升息的影响可能不到5%,之后市场又重新回去这可能是历史上最长的涨潮期。

不过,由于上两个十年的股灾都发生在1997至98年、2007至08年期间,这7和8的数字已经成为世界经济的魔咒。

很多投资者开始预言接下来的两年,股灾重现,因此,奉劝股民拥现金自重,等待危机过后,捡拾便宜货。

咳,咳,有了前两次的经验,再乐观的投资者(如我),也不敢公然反抗舆论,以免落人口实。

这么说来,读者可能认为黄金十年这个专栏相当幸运,产生在2011年,没有遇过股灾。

但是,物有两面,看我们如何去衡量。我们没有遇到股灾,没有见识到剧变的惨痛;同样的,我们也没有遇到股灾之后,万物皆便宜的难得机会,幸乎?不幸乎?

而且,没有股灾,我们一样可以找到5年内涨10倍的股票,也买卖过害我们损失惨重的公司。

如果没有准备,随时都是股灾;如果有准备,股灾也不过是投资生涯中的一个插曲。因此,不要害怕股灾,也无需对股灾有太多期待。


买入环球东方凭单

股市横摆不前,我们趁机检视一下组合的投资。

首先是毅豪(ABRIC),公司完成资本回退和特别股息之后,将在近日除牌。

我们的每股成本是4.5仙,相对公司除权以后的每股资产17仙,我们的亏损风险很低,唯一不利的是除牌后股票不能自由买卖。

不过,如果照董事部的意愿,是继资本回退和特别股息派发以后,进一步寻找脱售资产的机会,相信接下来,他们还是会照原定计划进行。所以,我们获利的机会是很高的。

EG工业业绩佳

接下来是EG工业(EG)。我们持有3万股EG工业(每股成本67仙)和4万股EG凭单C。

这是一家业绩表现很好,但股价暂时停顿的公司。

公司营业额按年增长约10%,由去年的6.36亿令吉,增加到今年的7.02亿令吉。上个财政年获利2635万(每股35.4仙),而刚刚宣布的今年全年业绩获利1830万(每股11.2仙)。

但是,去年公司有一笔脱售基金的一次过盈利,价值1538万令吉。如果把这笔盈利扣除出来,那么今年的获利其实比去年大涨一倍。

不但如此,公司去年的股额只有7482万股,经过附加股活动以后,目前股额是1.636亿股,所以形成公司盈利不差,不过每股净利大减的情况。

以目前股价86仙,本益比只有8倍,和其他半导体公司的本益比在20至30倍不可同等视之。

唯一可以解释的,是公司之前的形象非常负面,是属于高营业额,但低盈利且高负债的那一种,所以在一时半刻,不可能把公司的形象扭转成非常正面。

接下来,如果公司的盈利继续保持稳定,公司致力于增加赚幅、减低负债,将有助于改善公司形象。如果适时派发股息,则是锦上添花。

本周我们买入环球东方凭单2万股 ,每股购入价10.5仙。


免责声明

除了股票基本面,本文内容纯属虚构,所有提及股项纯属学术上或经验上的建议,读者若有兴趣投资,应该自行深入研究或询问股票经纪才决定,盈亏自负。

我们鼓励通过正确的投资方式创造财富,文中的建议,都有一个完整的买卖纪录。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 15, 2016, 07:20:39 AM



黄国华:马股明年大牛市

另一方面,担任“精明投资盛会”主讲嘉宾之一的著名投资顾问黄国华预测,马股将在明年上演大牛市行情,加上马股许多公司估值偏低,投资者应大胆进场,以免错失良机。

他受访时指出,虽然市面上流传的消息仍以负面居多,但以基本面角度来看,全球经济相信即将进入升息和高通膨时期,过往资料显示这往往会对股市带来正面影响。

风暴落在2019年

“人们都晓得10年一次的风暴周期,并担心风暴可能就落在明年,但我更确信明年会是10年一次的大牛市周期,风暴估计会延后至2019年;过往纪录来看,股市陷入风暴前,大牛市都会先上演。”

他强调,本地机构和外资都已开始累积马股,散户不该错过这一轮投资机会。

他坦言若11月美国总统大选由共和党特朗普胜出,股市可能出现暂时性的负面反应,因市场尚未反映这潜在发展,惟就更长期而言,他表示过往资料显示共和党执政期间,美国股市其实都趋向上涨,因此即使特朗普胜选,他对马股明年的乐观展望也不会改变。

银行架构已大幅强化
资产泡沫才是风暴导因

询及潜在风暴起因,黄国华直言在巴赛尔III条例落实后,银行资本架构已大幅强化,不太可能再成为风暴爆点。

“个人认为,资产泡沫才可能是下一轮风暴的导因,这是因自美国启动宽松政策至今,已有多达4兆美元资金流入全球资金市场,一旦行情好转,这些资金将涌入各类资产,泡沫将油然而生。”

询及哪一类公司适合投资,黄国华认为目前银行业和种植业都有不少估值诱人的股票适合投资,二三线股也存在不少投资良机,投资者可透过本益比(PE Ratio)、周息率和净资产值(NAV)等3大指标来判断相关公司是否便宜或适合投资。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧报道:李三宇‧2016.09.13
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 18, 2016, 08:13:32 PM



爱现金不爱不动产?/草根牛马
376点看 2016年9月18日
上期才讲到美国加息,上周的股市就立竿见影,纷纷倒地,可见“狼来了”的效应厉经两年,依然存在,只是其影响力果然有减弱之势。

不过,国内的产业久久不能提振,令市场开始不耐烦。国家银行甘冒大不韪而反其道而行,在美国加息之际减息,显然是见到国内贷款出现一些吃紧的现象,因此默默的扶了市场一把。


部长坏国行苦心

而不明市场运作的部长好心做坏事,想动用自己的权限来“协助”人民申请房贷,显然是一种“没有粥何不吃饭”的心态,想深一层,还可能破坏国行维持市场稳定的苦心。

国行这一步险棋,如果拿捏不准,很可能引火自焚,因为人家那边可能要加息0.25%,自己这边先减息0.25%,一加一减,就是0.5%的差距,这可能带动一些外资撤离,产生得不偿失的效果。


流传二次减息

不过,行兵之道,必须救急,沉疴落重药。药效不够重,届时可能再加重效果。市场在流传二次减息,显然是附和国行在观望第一次减后的冲击。

我们继续进行组合检视。有几家公司,是我们贪它在完成资产脱售后的丰硕资本而买下来的,在目前的环境,大家爱现金不爱不动产(产业不是滞销吗?)的趋势之下,显然是个错误的选择。

但是,公司资产迟早会显现出来,在当下觉得投资错误,似乎又和短视者的心态不谋而合。

所以,矛盾得很。


市场不乐观加深折价

由上述的表可见,我们的成本已经是很高的折价,尤其是这些公司的资产,大部分是现金以及很少负债。

但是,当市场不乐观时,会把折价加深,直到有一天,市场突然觉醒了……还是,大股东见猎心喜,索性把它私有化了。

等市场觉醒,毫无一定的期限,这是我们不喜欢的。或许,就如一些读者喜欢讲的,卖掉它吧,卖掉,就会起了(同样的,我们上期讲EG工业,一讲好,又加深它的跌幅,市场似乎喜欢和我们唱反调呐)。

这笔套住的13.3万令吉总成本,大约是我们的运作资本的17%左右。

暂时我们不会做很激烈的处理,因此,读者想趁我们卖而他买进来捡便宜,赚“魔咒”的钱,也暂时打消这个主意吧。

不过,对这些公司,除了泛马机构以外,其他公司的业绩的确是乏味可陈。我们大概可以用“除了钱,我们什么都没有”的情形来形容它们。

当然,这也可以解读为管理层的谨慎作风,即有了一大笔钱不是乱乱花的。

因此,除非他们下一步行动不能让我们信服,不然,我们没必要被市价影响,悲观的卖掉当初乐观买进的好股。


周息率无法取得盈余

严格来说,在一至两年间,除了环球东方以外,其他公司的资本回退和股息,占我们成本的30%至90%不等,周息率确实是了不起,只是无法在市价结算法之下取得盈余,是失败是成功,让时间去判断吧。

至于泛马机构,它最新业绩给我们带来一个小惊喜,2016财政年每股盈利2.24仙,同时净现金约13仙,希望它未来可以做到市场的一种说法:假设它是一间店屋,我们购入成本28.5仙,在一年内先收三年租金8仙(即28%房租,每年超过9%),希望未来三年可以以好价卖出,或者有机会再收另三年的租金。

这类投资,等,最关键性。

本周我们忙于庆祝中秋和马来西亚日,没什么买卖,只是把骤起超越债券的协徳(HIAPTEK)6万股全卖掉(每股30.5仙),换取6万股协徳债券(HIAPTEK-LA,每股30仙),赚些小利差。组合回酬仍在负7%左右。

Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 26, 2016, 07:19:30 AM



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财经  2016年09月25日
股价重拾动力 消费领域復元指日可待

股价重拾动力 消费领域復元指日可待

2015年4月消费税正式开跑,市场消费陷入低迷,今年4月,消费税正式满1週年,市场的消费情况是否有所改善,人们是否已经逐渐適应有消费税的日子?消费股4至6月份的业绩表现或许可以给我们一个清晰的答案。

消费领域在今年次季交出的业绩,其实还是好坏参半,虽然市场的消费情绪已经从2015年末季的最低点回升,但是消费趋势尚未恢復至消费税实施前的正常水平。

不过,近期我们已经看到一些消费股再次获得投资者的青睞,股价重拾动力,这包括重量级的股项,如大马喜力(Heim,3255,主板消费股)、皇帽酿酒厂(Carlsbg,2836,主板消费股)及雀巢(Nestle,4707,主板消费股)等,也有中型的巴迪尼控股(Padini,7052,主板消费股)及旧街场(OldTown,6201,主板贸服股)。股市通常预先反映未来,消费股当前的亮眼走势,也展现出投资者对消费领域未来成长的预期。

虽然如此,大华证券对消费领域仍有一些保留,暂时维持消费领域的评级为「与市场同步」。


啤酒股续引青睞 餐饮业越战越勇

在8月底结束的次季业绩季节中,消费领域股项的表现仍没有一致的向好,当中,雀巢及大马喜力的表现较特出,主要是受到销售成长强劲及成本节约措施的效应开始显现所带动。但是烟草股的表现则令人失望,由於去年11月国產税大幅上调的影响挥之不去,唯一上市的烟草公司--英美烟草(BAT,4162,主板消费股)次季的销售量,按季再跌9%。

另一大型的消费股--全利资源(QL,7084,主板消费股)次季业绩不符大华证券的预测,虽然综合生畜业务强劲復甦,但是海產製造业务疲软仍拖累整体表现。

巴迪尼维持成长势头

至於从事服装领域的巴迪尼控股,则是零售业者当中最耀眼的一家。而其他业者,则受到仍疲软的消费情绪影响,永旺集团(AEON,6599,主板贸服股)及百盛控股(Parkson,5657,主板贸服股)次季均未能交出令人惊喜的表现,百盛控股也受到其中国业务的拖累,面对来自电子商务的剧烈竞爭下,一直未能突破重围。

大华证券分析员认为,巴迪尼控股持续强劲成长,次季盈利按年增长105%,销售成长主要来自大眾市场。分析员也相信,巴迪尼控股在2017年將可以继续维持其成长势头,主要是因为经济前景仍不明朗,消费者降低消费,选择价格较便宜的產品,而该公司以大眾路线为主將可佔优势。

巴迪尼控股目前是以2017年预测本益比12.2倍交易,另外两家百货商店营运商永旺集团及百盛控股的本益比则分別是28倍及10.4倍。分析员指出,百盛控股的本益比偏低主要反映其中国业务面对的剧烈竞爭。

啤酒股高周息率

酿酒业而言,虽然业者的股价已经大幅走高,但目前为止,週息率仍处於良好水平。由於业绩表现佳,带动股价走高,大马喜力及皇帽酿酒厂年初至今,分別上扬40.02%及28.16%。

大马喜力及皇帽酿酒厂2016年上半年的盈利,按年分別上扬33.3%及18.85%,主要是因为成本效益改善,而大马喜力也通过提高市佔率,改善业绩表现。

基於之前的成本效益已经十分显著,分析员认为,接下来,成本节约可对盈利带来的影响会相对较小。

因此,大华证券將大马喜力的评级,从「买入」下修至「守住」,而啤酒股接下来的价格涨势相信也有限。

不过,在当前的低利率环境下,大马喜力及皇帽酿酒厂的高週息率,相信对投资者而言,仍具吸引力。

整体而言,分析员认为,零售领域当中,接下来表现会越来越好的是餐饮业者。

旧街场靠FMCG取胜

分析员了解到,旧街场的餐馆业务的盈利贡献仍没有好转的跡象,不过,该公司快销產品(FMCG)则持续快速成长,主要动力来自在中国市场销售的3合1白咖啡包装產品。

另外,成功食品(BJFood,5196,主板贸服股)则预期將在反暴利法令的限制,於2016年12月31日解除之后,开始上调產品售价,这將可以缓和该公司因为美元强劲的走势,造成成本上扬的压力。

分析员指出,旧街场的快销產品业务仍是一个亮点,在2017財政年首季,这项业务的盈利按年成长68.7%,超越其20.7%的营业额成长,这部份是因为公司的成本节约措施,该公司在这期间调整其分销网络及提升生產线自动化程序,而同时原料及包装材料的產品成本也相对降低。

分析员也指出,若不是因为该公司的生產线在4月暂停超过两週,导致本地的销售按年下跌22%,这项业务在这期间的盈利表现或许会更佳。

管理层希望,接下来的季度公司出口至中国的销售,將可以维持双位数的成长势头,此外,也相信可以维持一直以来的高赚幅水平。

以市场的盈利预测平均水平计算,该股目前是以2017財政年14.7倍的本益比交易,比区域同儕低,新加坡掛牌的Super集团,2017年预测本益比为17.5倍;菲律宾的Universal Robina的本益比则为24.6倍,而印尼MayoraIndah的预测本益比则是21.4倍。

成功食品料转嫁成本

另外,肯尼罗杰斯烤鸡(KRR)及Jollibean的表现差强人意,加上疲弱的令吉,导致成功食品的销售成本提高。但是分析员认为,大马星巴克咖啡潜在提高售价,可带来强劲的盈利復甦。此前,成功食品尚未將美元走强造成的额外成本,转嫁给消费者。

分析员认为,单看大马星巴克咖啡的估值,这家子公司2016財政年(4月结账)的本益比在16倍,相对便宜。此前,印尼的Mitra Adiperkasa將旗下4家餐饮公司整合到同一子公司PT MAP Boga Adiperkasa旗下,並通过发行债券股,招揽私募基金为股东。PTMAPBogaAdiperkasa拥有印尼星巴克咖啡的经营权。这项交易价值相当於37倍本益比。

义利业务强估值低

另一家受看好的消费股是义利(YeeLee,5584,主板消费股),该公司在2016年次季的销售,按年成长缓和至4%,分析员认为,之前的销售因为红牛而大幅增加,销售情况目前已经逐渐趋向正常化。虽然短期內没有新的激励因素,但分析员认为,义利的业务仍强稳,也是其中一家估值具吸引力的消费股,2017年本益比低於10倍。

经销贸易成长放缓 未来数季续承压

大马国家统计局的最新数据显示,7月份的经销贸易成长5.2%,比6月份的7.2%,成长出现放慢的趋势。

当中,零售销售则从6月份创下的15个月新高回退,7月份的零售销售成长9.4%,6月份成长为10.2%。

批发销售成长也从6月份的6.3%,缓和至4.5%。批发及零售销售7月份均有成长,唯独汽车销售萎缩3.2%,这也显示,6月份的汽车销售成长只是因为受到佳节带动的销售,无以为继。

MIDF研究分析员认为,当前產品销售成长势头,短期內料难以持续。

分析员指出,从目前的存款收窄情况可见,消费者正耗用自身的积蓄来支撑消费。再加上,失业率比2014年中,有稍微增长的跡象,这是因为一些公司在当前的市况下减少招聘。

此外,政府也自今年3月期,冻结增聘人手,让整体的就业机会进一步减少。截至今年6月份,失业率保持在3.4%。

因此,MIDF研究相信,未来几个季度的经销贸易活动及私人消费,將面对下滑的压力
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 26, 2016, 07:22:56 AM



Saturday, 24 September 2016
Market resiliency in the face of uncertainty






 Hasenstab: ‘We favour being short on euro as a hedge against political risks.’
Hasenstab: ‘We favour being short on euro as a hedge against political risks.’
 
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Templeton Global Macro chief investment officer Michael Hasenstab shares his global macro view on the market resiliency, perspective on the upcoming events and what he believes investors should keep a lookout for in the latter part of 2016 and into 2017.

Q: There has been no shortage of market moving issues this year, including Brexit, negative interest rates and continued geopolitical uncertainty, yet some markets continue to make new highs. What’s driving this resiliency, in your view, and what risks may be under the surface?

A: At the beginning of the year, one of our strongest convictions was that, even in the midst of global uncertainty, emerging markets had been oversold. We have seen no shortage of surprise shocks and global volatility but despite a lot of the headline noise, the fundamentals throughout most of the emerging markets remained sound.

The markets have shown incredible resilience, though it was clear to us the underlying fundamentals in individual countries matter. So, to us that is one of the highlights: the resilience of emerging markets within a period of volatility.

Perspective on the US election

On the heels of the historic Brexit vote, there is another highly charged political climate in the US with an election coming up in November. How would you characterise the economic and market environment in the US right now and how would you put the US election into perspective for investors?

I think what is interesting about the volatility we are seeing related to the political polarisation in the United States and Europe, is that it is juxtaposed against a very different dynamic happening in emerging markets.

In developed markets, we have seen a rise in populism because some voters see themselves as disenfranchised, and there has been a lack of real wage growth, causing real political upheavals. In emerging markets, countries such as Brazil and Argentina that went off track in terms of unorthodox policies have returned to sort of state-planning systems; those political regimes have ended, and the countries have come back to more mainstream orthodox policies.

There are hotspots globally, and there is policy uncertainty in the United States, but we have been focused on the emerging market theme because we have found that economies that we used to think of as politically unstable have actually proved to be less so as they pursue more orthodox types of policies.

What investors should watch for

As you look to the latter part of 2016 and into 2017, what factors or events should investors be watching for? What impacts do you think these factors will have on markets?

As we look toward the end of the year, we have to question whether the type of US government bond yields we have today make sense given rising inflation and the resiliency we’ve seen in the US economy. Our view is the rally in US Treasuries can reverse as quickly as it ran up, so our team is really avoiding that space. Second, we have concerns in the eurozone about the rise of nationalism, which questions the whole eurozone construct; the ability to form a fiscal union given all the geopolitical issues developing within Europe is incredibly problematic. We favour being short on euro as a hedge against political risks that could continue to unfold.

Additionally, the exceptional rally in the yen is stifling the economy, and it is reigniting deflationary pressures. In our view, the Japanese economy and policymakers will likely find it very difficult to deal with the yen at these inflated levels; the massive yen rally appears tenuous to us and poised for a reversal.

We are being very selective in emerging markets. I think what will be key as we look ahead is examining individual countries’ policy decisions and the political landscape–the variances will likely be massive.

As the year progresses and we move into next year, we think the differentiation will be critical. You cannot treat emerging markets as uniform – that is our main message
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: rince on September 27, 2016, 12:51:32 PM
bull market coming
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on September 30, 2016, 07:15:11 AM



SC charges former directors of Patimas
Posted on 30 September 2016 - 05:37am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) has charged a former managing director and three former executive directors of Patimas Computers Bhd with 10 counts of causing wrongful loss to the company.

The directors charged are former managing director Law Siew Ngoh, 55; former deputy executive chairman Yap Wee Hin, 58; and former executive directors Robert Daniel Tan Kim Leng, 59, and Ng Back Heang, 62.

The directors are said to have made payments totalling RM5.1 million between July and December 2010, for the purported development of various software for Patimas when in fact they were not used for such a purpose.

The charges were read out before Sessions Court judge Zaman Mohd Noor. All four claimed trial to the charges.

Law, Yap, Tan and Ng were imposed a bail of RM200,000 with one surety and ordered to surrender their passports.

“This is the first time the SC is taking criminal action for an offence under section 317A(1) of the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007,” the SC said in a statement yesterday.

Under this section, an officer of a listed corporation or any of its related corporation, commits an offence if he does anything or cause anyone to do anything with the intention of causing wrongful loss to the listed corporation or its related corporation.

At the material time, the offence was punishable with an imprisonment term not exceeding 10 years and a fine not exceeding RM10 million
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 03, 2016, 07:46:00 AM



2016-10-02 19:19
21年潮起潮落.消失的市值王
是否想知道,在21年时间里,马股究竟改变了多少?本期《股市纪事》,正好就有你要的答案。
物换星移,对比21年前和目前的马股首20大市值公司排行榜,会发现不少有趣之处;当中,我们能发现有些公司在21年时间里力争上游,而得以在今天继续引领马股群雄,但也有些不敌岁月摧残,狼狈出局,甚至被迫退出马股。

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7公司落榜

环顾21年前后,当年的20家最大市值公司中,共有7家已经落榜,包括被森那美(SIME,4197,主板贸服组)吞并的金希望(Golden Hope)和牙直利集团(Guthrie)、被重组成联昌集团(CIMB,1023,主板金融组)的商业资产控股(Commerce Asset-Holding),和不幸被其他后来崛起的重量级公司挤出榜外的万能(MAGNUM,3859,主板贸服组)和雀巢(NESTLE,4707,主板消费品组)。

马航普腾失竞争力

两家知名国营企业——马航(MAS)和普腾(PROTON)虽获政府百般关照,而在当年并列马股顶尖企业行列的一员,无奈保护政策竟造成两家公司丧失核心竞争力,很快在面对市场竞争压力时败下阵来,最终陆续踏上私有化重组一途,令人不胜唏嘘。

目前,马航和普腾分别寄宿在国库控股(Khazanah)和多元资源工业(DRBHCOM,1619,主板工业产品组)旗下,且仍未摆脱困境,仍在苦苦重组中。

广告

 
还有一家有变的公司是当年的DCB控股,历经一番重组后,如今继续以兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融组)的身份留在20大市值榜上。



当年3大天王TMT
马电讯因分家排名剧跌

当年“地位超然”、无人能比的3大市值王——TMT(马电讯/马银行/国家能源),现在又是怎样一幅光景呢?

马银行市值较21年前高1.7倍

21年前,马股“市值王”为马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服组),当年市值为393亿9000万令吉,国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组)则以307亿5000万令吉市值居次,季军是马来亚银行(MAYBANK,1155,主板金融组),市值为244亿7000万令吉。

时至今日,国家能源和马来亚银行不但仍留在三甲,排名和市值也各升一级,前者崛起成新一代市值王,市值达834亿1000万令吉,对比前期市值王马电讯,市值约高出1.1倍,也比本身21年前的市值高出1.7倍。

屈居第二的马来亚银行亦表现不俗,市值对比当年也膨胀了2.2倍,21年没有枉过。

(编按:根据最新一周统计,马银行的“银行老大地位”已拱手让给大众银行。详文见http://www.sinchew.com.my/node/1573005)

马电讯分拆后市值逊亚通

然而,受到科技时代的洗礼,马电讯的业务一分为二,在把流动电话业务(即目前的亚通(AXIATA,6888,主板贸服组))拆出后,以固定电话业务为核心的马电讯,因时代的变迁,市值甚至还不如亚通。

20大公司市值激增328亿

总的来看,受惠于经济持续成长,20大市值公司的整体规模也明显提升,单是目前的首3大市值公司——国家能源、马来亚银行和大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融组),合计市值就已高达2393亿4000万令吉,对比21年前20大市值公司的2065亿5000万市值总和,激增327亿9000令吉,就可看出其中差别。

连在目前市值榜中吊车尾的兴业银行,市值都高达198亿5000万令吉,远胜当年排在相同位置、市值只有27亿9000万令吉的万能(MAGNUM,3859,主板贸服组)。

市场对企业规模的定义也已明显转变,当年的20大市值公司中,有多达14家公司市值在100亿令吉以下,介于27亿9000万至65亿5000万令吉不等;以今天标准来看,这样的市值充其量只能被归类为中型公司,这明确反映出马股规模在这21年间的成长。

大众银行市值飙16倍

在如此环境下,那些时隔21年后仍留在市值榜榜中的大蓝筹,市值自然也都大有斩获,而其中最受瞩目的非大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融组)莫属,其市值由区区44亿1000万令吉,飙升至目前764亿6000万令吉,在21年里飙升16.33倍!

此外,丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融组)市值则跃升7.2倍,由32亿9000万令吉增至270亿1000万令吉,吉隆坡甲洞市值则成长5.56倍至251亿3000万令吉,国油气体(PETGAS,6033,主板工业产品组)和国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服组)市值也分别成长1.32倍和4.15倍。

银行股份量最重
电讯股成新势力

势力划分方面,虽然过了21年,银行股在马股中的核心地位却保持不变,依然是比重最大的领域,在市值榜中占据5个席位,惟对比前期却少了一席,原因是当年贵为马股第11大市值公司的大马银行(AMBANK,1015,主板金融组),早前因被卷入一马发展有限公司(1MDB)丑闻中,投资情绪严重受伤,市值蒸发不少,不幸跌出榜外。

过去21年蓬勃发展的电讯领域则是新崛起势力,在20大市值榜中霸占4席(前期只有1席),3大流动电讯业者——亚通、明讯(MAXIS,6012,主板贸服组)和数码网络(DIGI,6947,主板基建计划组)都顺利进榜,所占席位甚至高于被公认为是马股两大支柱之一的种植股(3席)。

国油系留榜

不过,当年稳占榜首的马电讯,在分拆流动电讯业务后元气大伤,虽仍驻守榜内,市值却只有257亿4000万令吉,对比当年甚至下跌34.65%,是唯一一家仍在榜中、市值却下跌的公司。

国家石油(Petronas)则是市值榜洗牌后的大赢家之一,进榜“国油系”公司数目由当年的2家升至4家,除原有的国油气体(PETGAS,6033,主板工业产品组)和国际船务(MISC,3816,主板贸服组),国油化学(PCHEM,5183,主板工业产品组)和国油贸易(PETDAG,5681,主板贸服组)也成功登榜。

7公司新上榜

在7家新上榜公司中,国库控股旗下IHH医保是表现最好的一家,目前市值达537亿5000万令吉,在马股排名第5位,以微差领先国油化学。

值得一提的是,国油化学和IHH医保都是过去5年里才在马股上市的公司。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧股市纪事‧文:李三宇‧2016.10.02
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 06, 2016, 04:23:57 PM



UOB says fund excludes Malaysian shares
By Samantha Ho / theedgemarkets.com   | October 6, 2016 : 3:08 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 6): UOB Asset Management (M) Bhd's United Global Quality Equity Fund does not invest in Malaysian shares as local stock valuations were relatively high.

UOB Asset Management chief investment officer Francis Eng said the fund, which was launched today, adopted a bottom-up fundamental investment approach to identify high-quality, growth-oriented companies that are trading at a discount to the market and returned excess capital to shareholders.

"We (Malaysian shares) have always traded at a premium compared to our peers, but relative to historical values, we are trading nearer to the mean," Eng told reporters today at the launch of the fund.

At 12:30pm, the FBM KLCI rose 3.77 points or 0.2% to settle at 1,666.69 points.

Bloomberg data showed that at current levels, the KLCI traded at a price-earnings ratio (PER) of about 18 times. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Singapore's Straits Times were transacted at a PER of about 12 times each.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 07, 2016, 07:07:24 AM



UOB: M’sian stock market less expensive now
Posted on 7 October 2016 - 05:37am
Lee Weng Khuen
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
KUALA LUMPUR: Valuations of the Malaysian stock market have been getting less expensive, which could sustain its momentum in the next 12 to 18 months, coupled with the pick-up in consumer stocks and oil prices, according to UOB Asset Management (Malaysia) Bhd chief investment officer Francis Eng.

It has not come down so much however for UOB to consider investments in Malaysian equities for its latest United Global Quality Equity Fund.

“When you look at the global scale, either the valuation is a little bit higher than the equivalent and in terms of return of excess cash, the global companies that we identified are ahead of our Malaysian companies.

“This is a global fund, we’re looking for value globally. I think for Malaysian funds, we tend to be Malaysian-centric and more regional, so for this global fund, quite a number is into the US market, China and Hong Kong,” UOB Asset Management Lim Suet Ling told a media briefing here yesterday in conjunction with the fund launch.

UOB is looking to achieve a fund size of RM100 million for the United Global Quality Equity Fund, which looks to offer an annual return of 8% to 12% over a medium term of three years and above.

The manager of the fund adopts a bottom-up, fundamental investment approach to identify high-quality, growth-oriented companies that are trading at a discount to the market.

The fund is 60% invested in the US and North America and 14% in emerging markets.

“Generally, Malaysia is a slightly more expensive market. We have always tended to trade at a premium to our peers. But if you look at it now where Malaysia is trading relative to its historical average, we’re quite close to mean, neither expensive nor cheap,” he opined.

Eng also noted that the rise in consumer stocks will help drive the recovery of the market.

“Consumption has bottomed out. If you look at the MIER consumer sentiment index, it started to pick up already. Consumers have adjusted to the GST (Goods and Services Tax) and weak ringgit,” he added.

Eng favours the construction, palm plantation and consumer sectors.

The rise in oil prices is also a catalyst for the local stock market following The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (Opec) decision to cut global production, according to Eng.

“If you look at oil ... oil is a big factor for our market. I think most people are forecasting that oil demand and supply dynamic could look better over 12 to 18 months, so it will be positive for our market,” he said.

Eng opined that the growth in the emerging markets will still outpace the developed markets despite rate hikes in the US.

“In the low interest rate environment, people are searching for returns and emerging market is one of the bright spots where you still get relatively good growth.

“And at the time with the Brexit, fund managers are re-looking at their asset allocation and money has been shifting out of Europe, emerging markets will be benefiting from that flow of money,” he said
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: Oly Shyte on October 07, 2016, 08:02:25 AM
Investlah has turn into a chinese forum......  :D
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 07, 2016, 08:15:40 AM
Investlah has turn into a chinese forum......  :D

MULTI-LINGUAL

 :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 09, 2016, 07:43:11 AM



希拉丽若入主白宫
哪些亚股受益最大?
1628点看 2016年10月8日
亚洲股市投资人偏好民主党候选人希拉丽提出的政纲。(网络图)
亚洲股市投资人偏好民主党候选人希拉丽提出的政纲。(网络图)

(华盛顿8日讯)外媒报道,从美国总统大选首场辩论后的市场反应看来,亚洲股市投资人偏好民主党候选人希拉丽代表的维持现状,对于把矛头瞄准中、日的共和党候选人特朗普则有疑虑。


投资人将密切关注两位候选人9日在第二轮辩论中再度对决。有策略师与基金经理人认为,特朗普是个难以预测的变数,若他当选,对亚股可能是个大麻烦。

特朗普毫不遮掩对美联储长期实施零利率政策的鄙视,指称此举导致美国股市形成巨大的泡沫。他若胜选,美国利率正常化的步调与程度可能更捉摸不定,这将困扰香港、新加坡等受美国政策牵引的亚洲市场投资人。便宜资金充沛,是支撑亚股最大的因素。

亚股投资人偏好希拉丽

希拉丽若在总统大选中胜出,哪些亚股受益最大?投资研究公司Truewealth创办人伊斯坎认为,香港和中国的消费者导向与出口导向类股,可能报以涨声,因希拉丽作风务实,掀起美中贸易战的几率低,不像特朗普扬言对中国课征高进口关税。

若入主白宫的是特朗普,也有股票会受惠。交银国际(BOCOM )研究部门主管洪灏指出,在亚洲,南海主权、朝鲜核武等地缘政治纷争悬而未决,军事对立是长期题材。

从这个角度来看,特朗普“较倾向争端”,他若当选可能有利亚洲大型国防类股,包括中国航空科技工业(AviChina)、日本的三菱重工,以及南韩航宇工业(Korea Aerospace)。

新闻来源:经济日报


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 09, 2016, 05:02:52 PM



2016-10-09 13:54
陈定远‧你若理财,财会离你
股市有风险,入市须谨慎,债市有风险,入市也须谨慎。理财的人应该明白,理财也有风险。回报越高的理财产品,其风险越高,换句话说,投资在高回报理财产品的人,其蒙受损失的机会也越高。
关于个人理财问题,理财专家常说:你不理财,财不理你。那是说,你要理财啊,不然啊,财不会理你,财富会离你而去。

广告

个人理财是指对个人财产的经营管理,是把个人财产,投资在各种理财产品,诸如股票、债券、基金、外汇、期货、黄金、房地产等等,以便达到财产的保值或增值的目的。一般人的理财,不外就是买股票,买房地产,希望通过这些投资,能够使个人的财富增加,最低要求是其​​财富增值要超过通货膨胀率。

你不理财,财不理你。这话简单易懂,你要理财,但如何理财才是?大家都毫无头绪,不知如何理财。银行和券商,看中了大部份的人都不会理财,便做起推销理财产品的生意来。其中最普遍的是向广大人民群众推销单位信托(即股票基金),再来便是向银行客户推销各种高回报的结构性产品(一般是债券)。还有理财专家的,可以按照你的条件和需要,给你量身定做,设计适合你的理财方案,虽然不收咨询费,其实际目的是要推销他们的理财产品,让你购买。

2008年9月爆发全球金融危机后,发生股灾,很多人发觉股票不能买了,高回报的债券也不能买了。那时候,人们只好乖乖地把钱存在银行的户头里,赚取那微薄的利息。股灾后的利率,全球存款利率都低的可怜,不说发达国家如美日欧,那里的利率降至史无前例的零利率水平,就说其他国家,银行给活期存款的利率也近乎零,新加坡银行给定期存款的年利率最高只有1%,而在马来西亚,定期存款还有年利率3%。

所幸全球金融风暴以来,世界各国的通货膨胀率极低,最高也不过1%-2%。考虑到通货膨胀率,新加坡银行存款的实际利率是零,甚至是负的。很多新加坡人觉得,钱存在新加坡银行只会贬值,于是越过长堤来新山的银行存款的人不少。这两年来他们亏大了。两年前,新加坡人为了理财,他们用1元新币换2.50令吉马币后,把钱存在马来西亚的银行的定期户头里,赚取3%-4%的年利率。两年来,马币对新币大幅度贬值,1新元已经能够换到3令吉马币,新币对马币涨了约20%,而马币对新元则贬了约17%,让新加坡存款人叫苦连天。

另外,我还记得30年前,即1986年新加坡中央公积金局推出投资股票计划,让公积金存户可以动用一部份的存款,自主投资于政府特选的蓝筹股。换句话说,政府让公积金存户可以在某种程度上,给自己的公积金存款做一点理财规划,除了户头存款能够赚取一些利息之外,还有可能在股市有所斩获,增加公积金财富。

广告

政府推出的这项公积金拥股计划,在新加坡电讯公司上市时达到高潮,但是,也是这个质优的公司的上市让大部份公积金存户蒙受亏损。这个计划今天依然存在,可以投资的产品已扩大到除股票外,还有产业基金、单位信托基金、保险产品等,但是,投资在股票和产业基金的比例已不到20%,大部份是投资在保险产品和单位信托基金,而购买保险产品所占的比例超过一半以上。这是个理财上的好现象,不能不说是在股市蒙受巨大亏损,理财失败后,才发觉购买保险产品是个不错的理财选择。

股市有风险,入市须谨慎,债市有风险,入市也须谨慎。理财的人应该明白,理财也有风险。回报越高的理财产品,其风险越高,换句话说,投资在高回报理财产品的人,其蒙受损失的机会也越高。

我常常告诫我的学生,不要沉迷于股市。是的,投资股市赚钱快,但输钱也快。长期来说,投资股票输钱更多更加容易,投资股市输钱的人占了总数的至少80%,长期来说,只有不到20%的人赚钱。你如果热衷于买卖股票,你难道是那幸运的赚钱的20%?可惜,沉迷于股市的人都认为:他们就是那赚钱的20%人士。

笔者认为,当你有钱,琢磨如何理财时,第一个考虑的应该是购买房产,第二个考虑是购买保险产品。首先,有了房子,解决了个人衣食住行里的住的大问题,再也不用付出租金,付出的租金像泼出去的水;然后,长期来说,房产是涨价的(其实是它占用的土地涨价),而且是作倍数增长。然后是购买保险产品,特别是人寿保险和医疗保险,其功能是帮我们转移风险,补偿损失,在事件发生时,会给我们提供求之不得的保障,尤其是人到晚年时,医疗保险尤其重要。然而,很少人会先投资在房产,一个原因是首付不容易筹到,另一个原因是他们觉得炒股票炒外汇的刺激大,赚钱也快,但没有想到输钱更快。

究其实,绝大部份理财人士的理财目的,是追求高回报。追求高回报里面包含有一种贪的欲念,希望通过理财,取得高回报,能发家致富。我们应该明白的是,不追求高回报,是我们不受骗,不蒙受巨大亏损的保障。

你不理财,财不理你。你若理财,财会理你?我要说的是:常常,你若理财,财会离你!这才是真的!

文章来源:
星洲日报/百思莫解·作者:陈定远·南方大学学院企业与管理学院教授·2016.10.09
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 09, 2016, 05:06:21 PM


2016-10-09 13:54
陈定远‧你若理财,财会离你
股市有风险,入市须谨慎,债市有风险,入市也须谨慎。理财的人应该明白,理财也有风险。回报越高的理财产品,其风险越高,换句话说,投资在高回报理财产品的人,其蒙受损失的机会也越高。
关于个人理财问题,理财专家常说:你不理财,财不理你。那是说,你要理财啊,不然啊,财不会理你,财富会离你而去。

广告

个人理财是指对个人财产的经营管理,是把个人财产,投资在各种理财产品,诸如股票、债券、基金、外汇、期货、黄金、房地产等等,以便达到财产的保值或增值的目的。一般人的理财,不外就是买股票,买房地产,希望通过这些投资,能够使个人的财富增加,最低要求是其​​财富增值要超过通货膨胀率。

你不理财,财不理你。这话简单易懂,你要理财,但如何理财才是?大家都毫无头绪,不知如何理财。银行和券商,看中了大部份的人都不会理财,便做起推销理财产品的生意来。其中最普遍的是向广大人民群众推销单位信托(即股票基金),再来便是向银行客户推销各种高回报的结构性产品(一般是债券)。还有理财专家的,可以按照你的条件和需要,给你量身定做,设计适合你的理财方案,虽然不收咨询费,其实际目的是要推销他们的理财产品,让你购买。

2008年9月爆发全球金融危机后,发生股灾,很多人发觉股票不能买了,高回报的债券也不能买了。那时候,人们只好乖乖地把钱存在银行的户头里,赚取那微薄的利息。股灾后的利率,全球存款利率都低的可怜,不说发达国家如美日欧,那里的利率降至史无前例的零利率水平,就说其他国家,银行给活期存款的利率也近乎零,新加坡银行给定期存款的年利率最高只有1%,而在马来西亚,定期存款还有年利率3%。

所幸全球金融风暴以来,世界各国的通货膨胀率极低,最高也不过1%-2%。考虑到通货膨胀率,新加坡银行存款的实际利率是零,甚至是负的。很多新加坡人觉得,钱存在新加坡银行只会贬值,于是越过长堤来新山的银行存款的人不少。这两年来他们亏大了。两年前,新加坡人为了理财,他们用1元新币换2.50令吉马币后,把钱存在马来西亚的银行的定期户头里,赚取3%-4%的年利率。两年来,马币对新币大幅度贬值,1新元已经能够换到3令吉马币,新币对马币涨了约20%,而马币对新元则贬了约17%,让新加坡存款人叫苦连天。

另外,我还记得30年前,即1986年新加坡中央公积金局推出投资股票计划,让公积金存户可以动用一部份的存款,自主投资于政府特选的蓝筹股。换句话说,政府让公积金存户可以在某种程度上,给自己的公积金存款做一点理财规划,除了户头存款能够赚取一些利息之外,还有可能在股市有所斩获,增加公积金财富。

广告

政府推出的这项公积金拥股计划,在新加坡电讯公司上市时达到高潮,但是,也是这个质优的公司的上市让大部份公积金存户蒙受亏损。这个计划今天依然存在,可以投资的产品已扩大到除股票外,还有产业基金、单位信托基金、保险产品等,但是,投资在股票和产业基金的比例已不到20%,大部份是投资在保险产品和单位信托基金,而购买保险产品所占的比例超过一半以上。这是个理财上的好现象,不能不说是在股市蒙受巨大亏损,理财失败后,才发觉购买保险产品是个不错的理财选择。

股市有风险,入市须谨慎,债市有风险,入市也须谨慎。理财的人应该明白,理财也有风险。回报越高的理财产品,其风险越高,换句话说,投资在高回报理财产品的人,其蒙受损失的机会也越高。

我常常告诫我的学生,不要沉迷于股市。是的,投资股市赚钱快,但输钱也快。长期来说,投资股票输钱更多更加容易,投资股市输钱的人占了总数的至少80%,长期来说,只有不到20%的人赚钱。你如果热衷于买卖股票,你难道是那幸运的赚钱的20%?可惜,沉迷于股市的人都认为:他们就是那赚钱的20%人士。

笔者认为,当你有钱,琢磨如何理财时,第一个考虑的应该是购买房产,第二个考虑是购买保险产品。首先,有了房子,解决了个人衣食住行里的住的大问题,再也不用付出租金,付出的租金像泼出去的水;然后,长期来说,房产是涨价的(其实是它占用的土地涨价),而且是作倍数增长。然后是购买保险产品,特别是人寿保险和医疗保险,其功能是帮我们转移风险,补偿损失,在事件发生时,会给我们提供求之不得的保障,尤其是人到晚年时,医疗保险尤其重要。然而,很少人会先投资在房产,一个原因是首付不容易筹到,另一个原因是他们觉得炒股票炒外汇的刺激大,赚钱也快,但没有想到输钱更快。

究其实,绝大部份理财人士的理财目的,是追求高回报。追求高回报里面包含有一种贪的欲念,希望通过理财,取得高回报,能发家致富。我们应该明白的是,不追求高回报,是我们不受骗,不蒙受巨大亏损的保障。

你不理财,财不理你。你若理财,财会理你?我要说的是:常常,你若理财,财会离你!这才是真的!

文章来源:
星洲日报/百思莫解·作者:陈定远·南方大学学院企业与管理学院教授·2016.10.09


MORE THAN 80% OF STOCK INVESTORS LOST MONEY ?? .......


股市有风险,入市须谨慎,债市有风险,入市也须谨慎。理财的人应该明白,理财也有风险。回报越高的理财产品,其风险越高,换句话说,投资在高回报理财产品的人,其蒙受损失的机会也越高。

我常常告诫我的学生,不要沉迷于股市。是的,投资股市赚钱快,但输钱也快。长期来说,投资股票输钱更多更加容易,投资股市输钱的人占了总数的至少80%,长期来说,只有不到20%的人赚钱。你如果热衷于买卖股票,你难道是那幸运的赚钱的20%?可惜,沉迷于股市的人都认为:他们就是那赚钱的20%人士。


2016-10-09 13:54
陈定远‧你若理财,财会离你
股市有风险,入市须谨慎,债市有风险,入市也须谨慎。理财的人应该明白,理财也有风险。回报越高的理财产品,其风险越高,换句话说,投资在高回报理财产品的人,其蒙受损失的机会也越高。
关于个人理财问题,理财专家常说:你不理财,财不理你。那是说,你要理财啊,不然啊,财不会理你,财富会离你而去。

广告

个人理财是指对个人财产的经营管理,是把个人财产,投资在各种理财产品,诸如股票、债券、基金、外汇、期货、黄金、房地产等等,以便达到财产的保值或增值的目的。一般人的理财,不外就是买股票,买房地产,希望通过这些投资,能够使个人的财富增加,最低要求是其​​财富增值要超过通货膨胀率。

你不理财,财不理你。这话简单易懂,你要理财,但如何理财才是?大家都毫无头绪,不知如何理财。银行和券商,看中了大部份的人都不会理财,便做起推销理财产品的生意来。其中最普遍的是向广大人民群众推销单位信托(即股票基金),再来便是向银行客户推销各种高回报的结构性产品(一般是债券)。还有理财专家的,可以按照你的条件和需要,给你量身定做,设计适合你的理财方案,虽然不收咨询费,其实际目的是要推销他们的理财产品,让你购买。

2008年9月爆发全球金融危机后,发生股灾,很多人发觉股票不能买了,高回报的债券也不能买了。那时候,人们只好乖乖地把钱存在银行的户头里,赚取那微薄的利息。股灾后的利率,全球存款利率都低的可怜,不说发达国家如美日欧,那里的利率降至史无前例的零利率水平,就说其他国家,银行给活期存款的利率也近乎零,新加坡银行给定期存款的年利率最高只有1%,而在马来西亚,定期存款还有年利率3%。

所幸全球金融风暴以来,世界各国的通货膨胀率极低,最高也不过1%-2%。考虑到通货膨胀率,新加坡银行存款的实际利率是零,甚至是负的。很多新加坡人觉得,钱存在新加坡银行只会贬值,于是越过长堤来新山的银行存款的人不少。这两年来他们亏大了。两年前,新加坡人为了理财,他们用1元新币换2.50令吉马币后,把钱存在马来西亚的银行的定期户头里,赚取3%-4%的年利率。两年来,马币对新币大幅度贬值,1新元已经能够换到3令吉马币,新币对马币涨了约20%,而马币对新元则贬了约17%,让新加坡存款人叫苦连天。

另外,我还记得30年前,即1986年新加坡中央公积金局推出投资股票计划,让公积金存户可以动用一部份的存款,自主投资于政府特选的蓝筹股。换句话说,政府让公积金存户可以在某种程度上,给自己的公积金存款做一点理财规划,除了户头存款能够赚取一些利息之外,还有可能在股市有所斩获,增加公积金财富。

广告

政府推出的这项公积金拥股计划,在新加坡电讯公司上市时达到高潮,但是,也是这个质优的公司的上市让大部份公积金存户蒙受亏损。这个计划今天依然存在,可以投资的产品已扩大到除股票外,还有产业基金、单位信托基金、保险产品等,但是,投资在股票和产业基金的比例已不到20%,大部份是投资在保险产品和单位信托基金,而购买保险产品所占的比例超过一半以上。这是个理财上的好现象,不能不说是在股市蒙受巨大亏损,理财失败后,才发觉购买保险产品是个不错的理财选择。

股市有风险,入市须谨慎,债市有风险,入市也须谨慎。理财的人应该明白,理财也有风险。回报越高的理财产品,其风险越高,换句话说,投资在高回报理财产品的人,其蒙受损失的机会也越高。

我常常告诫我的学生,不要沉迷于股市。是的,投资股市赚钱快,但输钱也快。长期来说,投资股票输钱更多更加容易,投资股市输钱的人占了总数的至少80%,长期来说,只有不到20%的人赚钱。你如果热衷于买卖股票,你难道是那幸运的赚钱的20%?可惜,沉迷于股市的人都认为:他们就是那赚钱的20%人士。

笔者认为,当你有钱,琢磨如何理财时,第一个考虑的应该是购买房产,第二个考虑是购买保险产品。首先,有了房子,解决了个人衣食住行里的住的大问题,再也不用付出租金,付出的租金像泼出去的水;然后,长期来说,房产是涨价的(其实是它占用的土地涨价),而且是作倍数增长。然后是购买保险产品,特别是人寿保险和医疗保险,其功能是帮我们转移风险,补偿损失,在事件发生时,会给我们提供求之不得的保障,尤其是人到晚年时,医疗保险尤其重要。然而,很少人会先投资在房产,一个原因是首付不容易筹到,另一个原因是他们觉得炒股票炒外汇的刺激大,赚钱也快,但没有想到输钱更快。

究其实,绝大部份理财人士的理财目的,是追求高回报。追求高回报里面包含有一种贪的欲念,希望通过理财,取得高回报,能发家致富。我们应该明白的是,不追求高回报,是我们不受骗,不蒙受巨大亏损的保障。

你不理财,财不理你。你若理财,财会理你?我要说的是:常常,你若理财,财会离你!这才是真的!

文章来源:
星洲日报/百思莫解·作者:陈定远·南方大学学院企业与管理学院教授·2016.10.09
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 11, 2016, 07:36:52 AM



Foreign buying on Bursa remains subdued
Posted on 11 October 2016 - 05:36am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: Foreign investor activity on Bursa Malaysia remained suppressed last week as foreigners bought a small amount of stocks valued at RM118.8 million after offloading RM240.8 million the week before.

MIDF Research said the trend was consistent elsewhere in the region and in East Asia. The figures are based on transactions in the open market, and excludes off market deals.

It said Bursa was closed on Monday for a public holiday. There was healthy buying activity on Tuesday when the market reopened, as foreigners bought RM143 million.

“However, the momentum was not sustained and the buying tapered off on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, foreigners turned net sellers, but the amount was low,” MIDF said in its fund flow report yesterday.

It said last week’s small foreign buying raised the cumulative net foreign inflow into shares listed on Bursa to an estimated RM2.42 billion, down from a peak of RM6.47 billion, which was the figure in April.

This means that since April, foreign investors have redeemed about RM4 billion. The amount is still modest relative to the RM19.5 billion and RM6.9 billion net outflow in 2015 and 2014 respectively.

Interestingly, foreign participation was rather active last week, as the average daily value of shares traded (ADTV) broke the RM1 billion mark to hit RM1.04 billion.

Trading was heavy mainly on Tuesday and Wednesday at more than RM1.2 billion each day. Nevertheless, foreign investors were quiet in the last two days of the week.

Local institutional investors dominated market participation and the ADTV stayed above RM2 billion for the fourth consecutive week at RM2.2 billion.

Retail buyers retreated from the market, offloading RM87.9 million. Retail ADTV plummeted 21% to only RM466 million, among the lowest this year.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 11, 2016, 02:28:11 PM



 1 0 0 1
Bursa lacks appeal for foreign investors
FMT Reporters | October 11, 2016
However, a general election could help revive the fortunes of the KLSE and the corporate sector, says FT report.
Bursa-MalaysiaKUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s stock exchange lacks the depth and liquidity to attract global investors, according to a report in the Financial Times (FT).
It also said the outlook for Malaysia, and Malaysian companies, was not good, due largely to a slowing economy, weak export earnings and constrained government finances caused by a slump in oil prices.
However, the FT report added, politics could offer “the potential to revive Malaysia’s corporate fortunes and those of its stock exchange”.
“There is speculation in Kuala Lumpur about a general election next year, possibly as early as March, with traditional giveaways expected,” it said.
Foreign investors pulled out net RM19.5 billion last year and RM6.9 billion in 2014, according to MIDF Research.
So far this year, foreign equity investments are up net RM 0.2 billion.
The FT report said Malaysia’s stock exchange had been among the region’s most buoyant four years ago, but, since 2012, listings had dropped.

“Its problems since then reflect not only the country’s political and economic uncertainty, but also its difficulties in attracting foreign investment.”
The average daily traded value of Bursa’s securities market declined slightly last year, falling to just over RM2 billion.
Bursa brought in some new foreign derivatives traders following roadshows in the US last year, and it is going strong on Islamic finance, which it sees as a potential growth market.
The FT report said while revenue from Bursa’s equities market fell 3 per cent last year on lower trading from domestic investors, overall revenue grew due to rising contributions from derivatives and Islamic finance.
The report said Malaysia’s thriving pension schemes encourage asset managers to use their significant pools of savings to buy domestic equities.
“So while companies have easy access to capital, prices on Bursa are high, and trading is low as institutions tend to buy and hold — resulting in less attractive securities for foreign investors.”
The FT quoted Herald van der Linde, head of Asia Pacific equity strategy at HSBC, as saying: “It is really a recycling tool of domestic savings.”
One major factor that has impacted the Bursa is the political climate in the country following the 1Malaysia Development Bhd scandal, with allegations that more than USD3.5 billion had been ‘stolen’.
“The 1MDB affair — which is being investigated by the US and Switzerland — underlines concern about weak governance in Malaysia. Foreign banks and potential investors fear becoming entangled in regulatory inquiries,” added the FT report
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 14, 2016, 07:12:43 AM



第3季交投疲弱
马交所净利看跌13%
104点看 2016年10月13日
(吉隆坡13日讯)受股市和衍生产品交易值下滑影响,分析员预计大马交易所(BURSA,1818,主板金融股)第三季净利恐按年萎缩13%,或按季下跌9%,至4500万令吉。

大马交易所即将在本月24日公布第三季业绩,马银行投行研究预计首9个月净利料按年跌3%,至1亿4400万令吉,仅达其全年预测的69%。


基于此,该分析员预计全年净利达2.1亿令吉的预测,或无法达标。

大马交易所第三季的股票交易值和衍生产品交易量,预计都按年和按季表现疲弱。

马股第3季的日均交易值(ADV)按年下跌6.4%,按季下跌6%,至18亿8000万令吉;而累计首9个月,日均交易值达19亿8000万令吉。

第3季日均交易值表现疲弱,主要因为7月仅录得17亿4000万令吉,但较后在8月和9月回升,分别录得19亿令吉和19亿8000万令吉。

外资参与26%

第3季外资参与率放缓至26%,低于次季的34%;同季衍生产品交易量也按年跌10%,按季跌11%,至344万宗;累计首9个月则按年增长2%,至1080万宗。

原棕油期货仍然占第3季衍生产品交易量中最大部分,达82%,剩余18%则是吉隆坡综指期货。

分析员调低2016财年股市日均交易值预测,从21亿令吉,下调至20亿令吉;而衍生产品交易量增长,则从15%,下调至5%;而2017财年股市日均交易值预测,也从22亿令吉,下调至21亿令吉;衍生产品交易量增长,则从12%,下调至8%。

161014x1301_noresize
 

拥3亿现金 派息料可观

马银行投行研究分析员下修大马交易所未来3年的净利预测,分别为2016财年下调5%,201财年调低8%,以及2018财年降9%。

分析员将该股的本益比设在23倍,略微高于同行的22倍,并将目标价从原本的9.05令吉,稍微下修至8.90令吉,以及维持“守住”评级。

截至6月杪,大马交易所现金企于3亿1000万令吉,有能力派发更多股息,周息率达4%以上。

在次季派发每股17仙的首次中期股息后,现金料达2亿1900万令吉或每股现金40仙。

分析员料大马交易所第三季不会再派息。

大马交易所今日闭市时报8.80令吉,无起落,成交量达90万1900股。



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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 14, 2016, 08:13:58 AM



Market continues to rally ahead of election
Posted on 14 October 2016 - 05:39am
Lee Weng Khuen
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
KUALA LUMPUR: The local stock market is expected to continue its rally ahead of the 14th General Election, which is due by 2018, according to MRR Consulting managing partner and investment adviser Ooi Kok Hwa.

“There is a cycle for every 10 years. We’ve come to a cycle that we’re heading towards the bull. Next year we expect the market to be a strong bull,” he told SunBiz in a recent interview.

“If you look through the 10-year cycle, there were bull runs in 1995-1996 and 2006-2007, so I expect this (2017-2018) will be a very strong bull, my view is that it will extend to 2018-2019,” he said.

Historically, Ooi noted that the local stock market could jump 100 to 200 points a year before the election.

“So if you see the level today, we (can expect) the index to reach 1,800 to 1,900 points in 2017 or 2018,” he said.

However, some do argue that the next financial crisis could be due in 2018 following the 2008 subprime crisis.

On this, Ooi doesn’t discount the possibility of another financial crash, but stressed that it won’t be a financial crisis as banks are well managed and capitalised nowadays. Nonetheless, the crash, he said, could be triggered by an asset bubble again.

“I foresee it will happen in 2019 or 2020, but before that, the market will go up very high first. Don’t worry about the crash, enjoy the rally first,” he noted.

“If you look at the world economy, we’re in a global inflationary environment with oil and inflation going higher, this is actually the right time to invest in equities,” he added.

Ooi pointed out that banking stocks, which are trading at cheap valuations, look attractive.

“The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for banking stocks in general is quite cheap. Some of them even standing below NTA (net tangible assets),” he said.

Besides that, he said valuations for a lot of mid- and small-cap stocks are also very low, which are even comparable to the level seen in 2008.

“You look at the PE, good dividend yield and some even trading at below the book value,” he noted.

Ooi said the expected bull run in the stock market could also spill over to the property sector.

“Rally in property market always comes one year after the stock market’s rally. If my prediction is correct, next year is a bull year (for stock market), then you will see a property jump in 2018 or 2019,” he explained.

Commenting on the ringgit, he said while it may weaken further following the depreciation of the Chinese yuan, the worst is expected to be only 4.2 against the US dollar.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 21, 2016, 11:29:37 AM



Bursa decline may end soon, says fund manager
FMT Reporters | October 21, 2016
Equities head at local firm says low ringgit and cheap stocks may be a factor in attracting foreign funds and will spur a rebound in local market.
~

PETALING JAYA: Has the Malaysian stockmarket bottomed out? That seems to be the case, according to a local fund manager, though he cannot explain why foreign funds have not started pouring in as yet.
Comparing the regional bourses with the Bursa, Gan Eng Peng, equities head at Affin Hwang Asset Management, says that both Indonesian and Thai shares are up at least 16 per cent this year and the Philippines has gained 11 per cent, and Malaysian equities, which are down 1.5 per cent, may soon catch up, Bloomberg reported today.
“After nine quarters of earnings disappointment, we could be reaching the end of the downgrade cycle.
“Foreign funds are on the hunt for ideas in Malaysia. So, the strong outperformance of Indonesia, political issues in Thailand and Philippines, could drive some re-balancing of monies into Malaysia,” Gan was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.
He added that the ringgit, being the worst performer in the region, compared with its regional peers, could also be a factor in attracting the foreign funds to spur a rebound in the Bursa.
According to Bloomberg, the inflow of foreign funds in the local bourse has been erratic, hitting a peak of RM6.4 billion in April, but with more than half of that being sold since, leaving it at RM2.2 billion as of last week.

Official data shows that foreign funds have taken out RM26.4 billion from the local market over the last two years.
“Recent investment conferences, including one in Hong Kong, have seen packed participation for Malaysia strategy meetings, which is unusual.
“The big caveat is that all these have not turned into stronger foreign flows yet,” Gan told Bloomberg, adding however, that with the undervalued ringgit, it may prompt foreigners to consider buying again.
Gan also admitted speaking to foreign brokers who have expressed unusual interest in Malaysia.
According to Bloomberg, Bursa Malaysia’s KLCI is currently valued at 18 times its current earnings, the cheapest since 2009, when compared with overseas markets.
With the low oil price that has affected the government’s earnings via Petronas, and the 1MDB scandal, besides the potential risks that come with the currency’s weakness, the Bursa’s benchmark index is also looking at a decline for the third consecutive year.
A Singapore-based money manager differs with Gan however, on the optimistic outlook.
“The negative news flow surrounding 1MDB is a drag to foreign funds,” Clive McDonnell, Singapore-based head of emerging-markets equity strategy at Standard Chartered Plc told Bloomberg, adding: “Malaysian stocks are certainly attractive by its value, however, cheap stays cheap without a catalyst.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 21, 2016, 02:18:05 PM



Investors seen hunting value in 1MDB-stricken Malaysian stocks
MORE
Malaysia: Shares open flat on Friday
Malaysia: Shares close lower on Thursday
Ringgit over 1-week high on oil; Malaysia budget eyed
Malaysia: Shares open slightly lower on Thursday
Malaysia: Shares open flat on Wednesday
Malaysia on alert as Mosul offensive stokes fears of militant influx
       
 cimb.jpg With Malaysian stocks on the brink of their longest stretch of annual losses ever, one money manager is buying amid bets valuations and signs of shifting overseas sentiment will spur a rebound. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
OCT 21, 20167:13 AM
[KUALA LUMPUR] With Malaysian stocks on the brink of their longest stretch of annual losses ever, one money manager is buying amid bets valuations and signs of shifting overseas sentiment will spur a rebound.

Gan Eng Peng of Affin Hwang Asset Management Bhd says earnings are stabilising after sinking to the lowest since 2011, while an undervalued ringgit may prompt foreigners to consider buying again. Overseas brokers he spoke to have signalled unusual interest in Malaysia, says Mr Gan, who took "big positions" in three of the largest stocks including Sime Darby Bhd and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. The move comes in a market clouded by weak profits and a scandal linked to a state fund.

"After nine quarters of earnings disappointment, we could be reaching the end of the downgrade cycle," said Mr Gan, equities head of Kuala Lumpur-based Affin Hwang, whose Select Opportunity Fund beat 97 per cent of peers with an 11 per cent return in the past year.

"Foreign funds are on the hunt for ideas in Malaysia. The strong outperformance of Indonesia, political issues in Thailand and Philippines, could drive some re-balancing of monies into Malaysia."


Stocks in Malaysia, home to the world's longest bull market, haven't been this cheap since 2009 relative to global equities. Yet they have been laggards in South-east Asia, caught between weak oil that has dented the government's oil revenue, a scandal engulfing 1Malaysia Development Bhd, and the prospect for higher US borrowing costs. The benchmark stock index is headed for a third year of declines.

While Indonesian and Thai shares are up at least 16 per cent this year and the Philippines has gained 11 per cent, Malaysian equities are down 1.5 per cent. They may catch up, Mr Gan says.

"Foreign funds are attracted by the 33 per cent underperformance" of the ringgit versus its Asian peers since 2013, he said. "Recent investment conferences including one in Hong Kong have seen packed participation for Malaysia strategy meetings, which is unusual. The big caveat is that all these have not resulted into stronger foreign flows yet."

Foreign buying has been erratic. Inflows hit a peak of 6.4 billion ringgit (S$2.1 billion) in April, only to see a selloff halving them to 2.2 billion ringgit as of last week. Foreigners pulled 26.4 billion ringgit in the last two years.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index is valued at 18 times its current earnings, the cheapest since 2009 versus the MSCI All Country World Index. The measure sank 3.9 per cent in 2015. It almost doubled from its 2008 low without succumbing to a 20 per cent drop, making it the longest bull-market worldwide.

Not everyone is optimistic.

"The negative newsflow surrounding 1MDB is a drag to foreign funds," said Clive McDonnell, Singapore-based head of emerging-markets equity strategy at Standard Chartered Plc. "It is certainly attractive by its value, however cheap stays cheap without a catalyst."

1MDB is at the centre of multiple international investigations into whether money was mishandled at the state-owned fund. Earlier this month, Singapore regulators ordered Falcon Private Bank to cease operations in the island city for breaches of anti-money laundering regulations in relation to its role in moving funds associated with 1MDB. The fund has consistently denied any wrongdoing.

Stocks "risk becoming a value trap without better growth," said Alan Richardson, a Hong Kong-based fund manager at Samsung Asset Management Ltd. Opportunities are mainly confined to smaller stocks outside of indexes, he said.

Earlier this month, Fitch Ratings raised its outlook on plantation giant Sime Darby to stable following a share sale, saying business has improved significantly. Banking group CIMB posted a 38 per cent gain in first-half profit, following a slump a year earlier, and predicted a "better" performance in the second half.

"2017 is looking like it could generate about 7 per cent to 8 per cent corporate earnings growth," said Mr Gan. "Combined with 2 per cent to 3 per cent market yield, total return is around 10 per cent."

Mr Gan bought real estate investment trusts and high dividend stocks amid a "low growth and low rate environment." He's also more selective in buying rather than broad-based. He bought CIMB for its turnaround of its Indonesian business, Sime Darby for a potential revamp, and Tenaga Nasional Bhd, the cheapest non-bank large-cap stocks.

"Less is more," he said. "A broader portfolio will end up with more bombs."

BLOOMBERG
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 22, 2016, 08:27:46 AM



财经  2016年10月21日 | 记者:林嘉灯、纪峰佑
预算案平淡无奇 马股激不起火花

预算案平淡无奇 马股激不起火花
预算案內容对提振马股没有太大的助力,预料股市接下来的走势不会有太大的波动。

(吉隆坡21日讯)由于市场对2017年財政预算案没有抱持太大的期望,所以今天出炉的预算案內容虽然没有惊喜,但市场並没有对此感到失望;同时,他们也认为,新鲜出街的预算案不会对提振马股有太大的助力。

亚洲区域股市今天普遍下跌,但是马股在2017年財政预算案出炉加持下,与区域股市背道而驰,全天逆市微扬2.80点或0.168%,报1669.98点。

综指微升

马股今日以1668.03点高开后,早盘大部份时间微幅走高,上探至1671.57点全天最高水平。午盘交易,富时大马综指一度下探至全天最低水平1663.97点。所幸,在下午4时,首相兼財长拿督斯里纳吉提呈2017年財政预算案后,马股止跌回扬,最终以1669.98点掛收,全天上扬2.80点或0.168%。


马股全天成交量为14亿4156万7400股,成交值则达20亿5024万6108令吉。

在美股隔夜领跌下,亚洲区域股市週五收低居多,但是跌幅皆低于1%。其中菲律宾股市跌幅最大,挫63.10点或0.82%;新加坡海峡时报指数紧隨其后,全天下滑11.56点或0.41%。

日本则因为地震消息影响,日经指数全天下挫50.91点或0.30%,收报17184.59点。而香港恆生指数因为颱风「海马」驾临,而休市一天,因而逃过一劫。

市场人士普遍认为,2017年財政预算案偏向解决民生问题,並带有「大选」色彩,倾向公务员和低收入群福利,但整体上可以说没有大惊喜。

《东方財经》电访丰隆投行研究主管徐克宇和Etiqa保险投资管理部研究主管吴保云,他们异口同声说,市场对2017年预算案期待不高。

整体而言,他们认为,此次预算案在没有太多期待下诞生,因此市场对该预算案的反应平平,既没有期待也不会太过失落。同时,预算案內容对提振马股没有太大的助力,因此料马股接下来的走势不会有太大的波动。

徐克宇说,此次预算案可谓「平淡无奇」,相信公佈后对马股影响不大。

「从2017年预算案內容公佈后,相信政府有聆听民生问题,並致力透过预算案给予补助。」

他说,无论是派发援助金措施,包括提高一马援助金(BR1M)、供应土地给关联公司(GLC)兴建价格介于15万至30万令吉房屋等措施,都不难发现,政府致力提高低收入群体的可支配收入,以及满足他们购买可负担房產的需求。因而,也算是符合市场的期待。

重视中小企业

另一方面,政府也重视小型企业的发展,包括提供中小型企业拨款和贷款补助金额。

吴保云也坦承,纳吉就確保经济成长和调低財政赤字的努力將为市场带来信心,但马股却无法从预算案中受惠。

从消费角度来看,虽然政府公佈一系列提振低收入群可支配收入的措施方案,但是相信不会对消费领域带来太大的利益。

另外,针对预算案中提及让公务员受惠的措施,吴保云不排除该预算案有「大选」因素
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 24, 2016, 04:09:37 PM



Bursa Malaysia's 3Q net profit falls 14.4%, revenue weaker at RM119.4m
By Gho Chee Yuan / theedgemarkets.com   | October 24, 2016 : 2:51 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 24): Bursa Malaysia Bhd's net profit for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 (3QFY16) fell 14.4% to RM44.04 million or 8.2 sen per share from RM51.47 million or 9.6 sen per share a year earlier as profit from securities market weakened.

According to its unaudited financial statement posted on the exchange, its profit derived from the securities market declined 11.1% to RM64.3 million from RM72.3 million in previous year's corresponding quarter.

Quarterly revenue was down 7.3% to RM119.4 million from RM128.83 million a year ago due to lower revenue recorded in both the securities and derivatives markets.

There was no dividend proposed in the current quarter.

According to its bourse filing, the stock exchange regulator said overhead costs for the quarter increased by 20.5% to RM17.5 million mainly due to higher staff costs and professional fees.

Its securities market operating revenue for 3QFY16 was RM83.1 million, representing a decrease of 7.7% from RM90 million in 3QFY15.

"Trading revenue decreased by 10.5% to RM51.3 million in 3QFY16, with a lower average daily value (ADV) for on-market trades (OMT) and direct business trades (DBT) of RM1.88 billion compared to RM2.01 billion in 3QFY15," it added.

The derivatives market segment recorded a profit of RM12.9 million in 3QFY16, a decrease of 5.7% from RM13.7 million in 3QFY15 mainly due to lower trading volume.

Trading revenue fell by 13.3% to RM20.8 million in 3QFY16 as a result of lower number of contracts traded.

"A total of 3.44 million contracts were traded in 3QFY16 compared to 3.84 million contracts in 3QFY15," it said.

For the cumulative nine-month period (9MFY16), its net profit declined 3.1% to RM146.45 million or 26.8 sen per share from RM148.01 million or 27.7 sen per share a year ago due to lower contribution from securities market and higher operating expenses.

Revenue for the period gained marginally to RM383.05 million from RM382.95 million.

According to Bursa, the securities market recorded a segment profit of RM204.4 million in 9MFY16, down 4.6% from RM214.3 million in 9MFY15, mainly due to lower trading revenue.

"Trading revenue decreased by 5.4% to RM163.9 million in 9MFY16. In 9MFY16, it saw a lower ADV for OMT and DBT of RM1.98 billion compared to RM2.06 billion in 9MFY15," it added.

Bursa said the derivatives market segment recorded a profit of RM44.1 million in 9MFY16, up 14.8% compared to RM38.4 million in 9MFY15.

The segment's operating revenue for 9MFY16 climbed 4% to RM78.8 million from RM75.8 million in 9MFY15, while trading revenue gained 4.4% to RM66.8 million due to higher guarantee fee and collateral management fee, it said.

Operating expenses increased by 6.5% to RM68.3 million in 9MFY16 mainly due to higher staff cost.

Going forward, Bursa said the securities market performance continues to be influenced by global and local economic and market developments.

"Nonetheless, domestic liquidity continues to provide support to the equity market given Malaysia's resilient and strong economic fundamentals," it added.

Derivatives market activities will continue to be influenced by volatility in commodity prices and the FBM KLCI, it said.

It also expects the introduction of Bursa Malaysia-i, the world's first fully integrated Islamic securities exchange platform, to further attract a wider pool of both domestic and foreign investors.

Notwithstanding that, Bursa remained cautiously optimistic on its performance for the year and shall continue with its initiatives in making the Malaysian equity and derivatives markets more attractive and vibrant.

At the noon market break, Bursa fell 14 sen or 1.55% to RM8.89 with 31,600 shares traded, for a market capitalisation of RM4.77 billion
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 25, 2016, 07:09:41 AM



财经
預算案大選味道濃 政聯股成下個投資焦點
 2363点阅   2016年10月24日
(檔案照)
(檔案照)
(吉隆坡24日訊)2017年財政預算案的“大選味道濃”,市場除了關注誰是輸家和贏家以外,JF APEX證券研究認為,明年潛在的全國大選,使政聯股成為下一個投資焦點。

JF APEX證券研究說,考量到國陣在砂洲選舉取得勝利、大馬半島2項補選、以及內閣改組等因素,政治分析家不排除即將進行選舉,而最快或在明年初大選。



馬股微揚

大選在即,JF APEX證券研究指出,由政聯企業(GLC)掌控,以及被視為政治關聯的股項,包括聯土局多元(FGV,5222,主要板種植)和聯昌集團(CIMB,1023,主要板金融)等多個股項,都將引來市場關注。

論及預算案,聯昌證券研究相信,消費、建築、汽車以及產托領域都將從中受惠。

聯昌證券研究解釋:“政府提高一馬人民援助金(BR1M)金額,將提振消費者的支出和國內旅遊活動,將對消費和產托領域有利。”

至于預算案宣佈總值990億令吉工程,聯昌證券研究認為,將讓建築股受惠。

聯昌證券研究說,汽車領域也將從預算案中受惠,尤其政府將提供獎掖給德士司機買新車。

馬興業金融阿瑪納投銀說,預算案確實有助于刺激國內經濟,不過並不期望預算案在本週為馬股帶來上升動力。

富馬隆綜指先跌后起,以1668.77點開盤,略滑1.21點,但在11時許回升,增6.93點至1676.91點,休市時上揚6.75點,掛在1676.73點;半日成交量8億5576萬4800股。富馬隆綜指閉市起7.78點,報1677.76點,上升股378只,下跌股407只,成交量16億3962萬9600股。

電訊業大輸家
馬電訊寫新低

聯昌證券研究認為,電訊業在維持售價的情況下,還得提高網速,將對獲利造成影響,淪為預算案下的最大輸家;馬電訊(TM,4863,主要板貿服)週一(24日)股價大跌,一度寫下7個月新低。

該行解釋,預算案下寬頻固網服務供應商,明年起得在維持售價的情況下,提供更高網速的服務,進而限制馬電訊追加銷售(up-selling)的機會,並拉低收入預測。

馬電訊週一以6.66令吉開盤,跌5仙,盤中下挫14仙或2.1%至6.57令吉,為3月18日以來的最低水平。

該股休市暫掛6.58令吉,跌13仙,為10大下跌股,成交量465萬5600股。該股閉市時報6.58令吉,跌13仙,成交量達1276萬4300股。

20161025bs04

Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 25, 2016, 02:48:18 PM



CIMB upgrades Bursa Malaysia
By Neily Syafiqah Eusoff / theedgemarkets.com   | October 25, 2016 : 12:50 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 25): CIMB Investment Bank Bhd raised its target price for Bursa Malaysia Bhd shares to RM9 from RM8.86 after taking into account the stock exchange operator and regulator's 2017 earnings outlook.

In a note today, CIMB analyst Winson Ng said CIMB, however, maintained its "hold" rating on Bursa Malaysia shares.

"We cut our FY16–18 EPS forecasts by 5–8% due to reduction in projected revenue. However, our target price is raised to RM9 due to rollover to end-2017.

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"Maintain 'hold' on Bursa given the uncertainty surrounding its equity market income," Ng said.

CIMB's note followed Bursa Malaysia's announcement on its third quarter financials.

Yesterday, Bursa Malaysia said net profit fell to RM44.04 million in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2016 (3QFY16) from RM51.47 million a year earlier. Revenue was lower at RM119.4 million versus RM128.83 million.

9MFY16 net profit dropped to RM143.45 million from RM148.01 million a year earlier. Revenue was higher at RM383.05 million versus RM382.95 million.

Today, Ng said Bursa Malaysia's 9MFY16 net profit was below CIMB's and consensus forecast.

"At 67% of our full-year forecast and 71% of Bloomberg consensus estimates, Bursa's 9MFY16 net profit was below expectations," he said.

At 12:30pm, Bursa Malaysia shares fell five sen or 0.6% to RM8.75 for a market capitalisation of RM4.69 billion. The stock saw 21,700 shares traded.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 26, 2016, 08:52:19 PM



国内外利淡笼罩
马交所短期展望不利
32点看 2016年10月26日

马交所自2010年开始,就派出超过90%的净利。

(吉隆坡26日讯)分析员认为,全球经济低迷及国内外充斥不稳定因素,将对市场情绪带来挥之不去的阴影,进而影响大马交易所(BURSA,1818,主板金融股)的短期展望。


马交所截至9月30日第三季净利按年下滑14.42%,报4404万3000令吉,而累计9个月净利则微跌3.08%,达1亿4345万4000令吉,普遍符合预期。

艾芬黄氏资本分析员表示,虽然第三季业绩下跌的部分原因,是受到英国脱欧公投的影响,但疲弱的企业净利增长,将拖累市场情绪持续萎蘼不振。

“这将对马交所短期内的展望不利。”

随着分析员把收费收入预测调低,加上更保守预估股票交易及衍生产品的营业额,所以把2016、2017和2018财年核心净利预测,分别大幅调低10.9%、17.3%和20.7%。

此外,亦把投资评级从“守住”,降级至“卖出”,而目标价格则调低至7令吉。

同时,肯纳格投行分析员表示,美国利率决策、全球经济增长及国内外不稳定因素引起的忧虑,将会持续打压市场情绪。

“在综合市场展望下,我们选择保守看法,预测今年股票市场的平均成交值达18.6亿令吉,按年减少7%,而成交量则跌8%,达18.1亿股。”

至于衍生产品市场,分析员则预计,期货合约总成交量按年增长6%。


强劲现金流支撑高股息

安联星展研究分析员指,马交所拥有强劲的创造现金流能力,这将会持续扶持高股息派发率。

马交所自2010年开始,就派出超过90%的净利,并分别在2013年和2014年宣布派发特别股息。

“目前,该股的周息率处于偏高水平,达4%至5%。”

分析员指,潜在架构变化,如精简监管角色、调整上市费用,及重组收费架构,将会进一步释放净利潜能。



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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on October 28, 2016, 07:01:48 AM



财经  2016年10月27日
月初效应週期展开 5只成份股表现看俏

月初效应週期展开 5只成份股表现看俏

(吉隆坡27日讯)股市11月的「月初效应」將在明日(28日)开始,MIDF研究分析员指出,根据理论这將是获得更高回酬的时机。

所谓的月初效应(Turn-of-the Month effect)是指,股票市场上在每个月的最初几天,及前一个月的最后几天的平均投资回报率,一般会比平常日子高。

MIDF研究分析员针对这个理论,以综合指数成份股过去10年的数据进行研究的结果发现,87%成份股的走势符合月初效应理论,即在每个月最后4天及隨后一个月的前3天,回酬率会相对的较高。

隨著新一轮的月初效应週期即將在明日展开,MIDF研究分析员根据研究结果及基本因素,挑选了5只预期可在这期间有更好表现的成份股,分別是IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植股)、大马银行(AMBANK,1015,主板金融股)、吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445,主板种植股)、马电讯(TM,4863,主板贸服股)及联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)。


回酬率跑贏综指

根据MIDF研究分析员对比过去10年数据得出的结果,综指30大成份股中,有26只股或87%的股项均出现月初效应。

「不止如此,当中更有15只成份股在这期间的平均回酬率跑贏综指的5.56%平均回酬率,且有3只成份股在这期间的平均回酬率更超过10%。」

这当中,平均回酬率最高的为兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融股),其回酬率为12.24%,比综指平均回酬率高1倍。紧隨在后的有数码网络(DIGI,6947,主板基建股)和合成统一(HAPSENG,3034,主板贸服股),月初的平均回酬率分別达10.71%和10.62%。值得一提的是,合成统一的回酬率,不管是在月初效应出现的时候,或一般时间均优于综指。

另外4只回酬率没有受月初效应影响的综指成份股,分別是大眾银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)、IHH医疗保健集团(IHH,5225,主板贸服股)、明讯(MAXIS,6012,主板贸服股)和丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融股)。这几只股在上述交易日的平均回酬率没有比平日高。

整体而言,MIDF研究分析员认为,大马交易所的却存在月初效应。他进一步说,市场许多有关金融投资的文献认为,月初效应之所以发生,主要是因为养老基金通常在这个时候,获得新的资金,然后將这些资金投入市场。

「同时,一些散户及专业投资者也会选择在月杪调整投资组合,这使月初效应更为显著。」

根据过往的情况推算,今年10月至11月的月初效应料在周五展开。5只受推介的股项,均获得「买入」投资评级。当中,他给予IOI集团和大马银行,目標价各別为5.05令吉和5.10令吉。

而吉隆甲洞、马电讯和联昌国际的目標价分別是,27.38令吉、8.18令吉和5.50令吉。

同时,MIDF研究分析员重申综指2016年杪目標1750点,同时维持其2017年杪综指目標在1830点。

富时大马综合指数周四(27日)呈跌,全天下滑4.89点或0.29%,至1669.03点闭市。

综指今日以1673.95点开高后,一度上涨至全天最高的1674.20点,惟之后急速下滑,转升为跌,触及1666.25低点,闭市时收窄跌幅,掛收1669.03点。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 03, 2016, 07:01:09 AM



财经  2016年11月02日
专家唱好明年马股 看涨消费建筑官股

专家唱好明年马股 看涨消费建筑官股
李天翔(左起)、张健平、郭敬辉和FSM总经理黄伟义畅谈亚洲与新兴市场2017年前景。

(吉隆坡2日讯)在大宗商品价格回弹和中国经济出现好转跡象驱动下,亚洲企业预料明年將有超过10%的盈利成长,亚洲股市在2018年底前的潜在上升空间为40%,而大马股市料也將在这些利好因素的带动下,在明年迎来一波涨潮。

Fundsupermart(FSM)针对亚洲和新兴市场的前景,今日举办了一场记者会,並发表以上的观点。同场发表看法的有FSM高级研究分析员李天翔、肯纳格投资者有限公司高级投资组合经理郭敬辉和联昌国际信安资產管理首席投资员张健平。专家们一致看涨亚洲股市包括大马股市,並认为明年油价將会反弹。

郭敬辉指出,「明年GDP成长预测在4.4%左右,而预计大马企业的盈利成长將达到10%左右的水平。我们对於明年原油价格的预测是在每桶大约60美元左右。」

张健平则表示,美国的企业是通过减少开销达到成长,而亚洲企业成长是受真正的需求所带动。明年的原油价格预计將会在每桶50至60美元徘徊。


对於大马个別行业的前景,专家们都各自发表自己的心头好。张建平看好大马官联企业,认为官联企业正转型,料在接下来的季度,將交出亮眼的成绩。

「我看好官联企业中的服务,种植和基建类的企业。我也认为政府將拨出更多的工程给予基建公司。」

李天翔则看好大马的消费领域將能从財政预算案中受惠。

「汽车领域或商场领域的企业將能从预算案中受惠。除此之外,我非常看好大马的银行领域,因为银行领域和所有的领域息息相关。」

郭敬辉认为大马的建筑和消费领域都是值得被关注的,而且出口导向企业將会持续贡献成长。当被询及是否有关注大马能源领域时,郭敬辉拒绝透露更多。

「我不能透露具体哪些公司,但是我们有关注某些特定的上游油气公司。」

张建平透露,令吉对比其他的货幣,有明显被低估的跡象,而令吉和油价似乎已经脱鉤。在大马GDP成长保持在4至5%和原油价格反弹至每桶50美元的情况下,他认为令吉將会升值。

钟情中国科技股

「大马股市的表现已经连续3年跑输日本和亚洲国家。一般上,大马股市的表现不会低於这些国家超过3年。据说外资已经对大马做足功课,只等待適合的时机进场。」

郭敬辉对此表示,「令吉在去年受油价拖累而贬值,今年则受其他的因素所影响,其中一个因素是人民幣的贬值。中国是大马最大的贸易伙伴国,因此,令吉多少受到了人民幣的影响,而相继贬值。除非中国政府採取任何措施,不然,人民幣还是会保持在较弱的水平上。」

针对亚洲其他国家的发展,三方都对中国的互联网和科技领域情有独钟。当被问及中国的科技股估值是否太高时,郭敬辉指出,「中国科技领域的公司有著庞大的市佔率,而且接近垄断的地位,因此该企业的盈利將持续正面的成长。」

问答环节中,在场的观眾询问若川普在11月8日胜出美国总统大选,是否將对亚洲市场带来很大的衝击,李天翔和郭敬辉都认为就算川普当选,也未必能只手遮天,而是取决於胜出多数议席的党派。

张健平则说,「最新民调显示,美国共和党总统候选人川普的落后差距正在缩小。如果川普胜出,美元料將升值,並间接影响新兴市场。」

由於川普的民调走高,亚洲股市今日大幅下滑,大马富时综指午盘跌势扩大,最终跌11.33点或0.68%,以1659.60点掛收。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 03, 2016, 10:10:14 AM



2016-11-03 09:40
3利好推动.新兴市场前景大好.亚股看涨40%
尽管外围市场动荡不已,但马股等亚洲新兴市场前景仍备受看好,有望在原产品价格触底反弹、企业盈利回扬、基建市场蓬勃发展推动下,吸引外资目光,而亚洲股市未来两年更有高达40%的增长空间。

(图:法新社)
(吉隆坡2日讯)多位分析员认为,尽管外围市场动荡不已,但马股等亚洲新兴市场前景仍备受看好,有望在原产品价格触底反弹、企业盈利回扬、基建市场蓬勃发展推动下,吸引外资目光,而亚洲股市未来两年更有高达40%的增长空间。

广告

 
原产品触底反弹
基建蓬勃发展

在“亚洲和新兴市场股市走势”媒体汇报会上,Fundsupermart高级分析员李天翔看好马股有望在原产品价格触底反弹和外资回流支撑下,于2017年呈上扬趋势,且看好消费、基建和建筑领域将有好的走势。

他相信在原产品价格正常化后,马股将走扬。

李天翔认为,整体企业盈利增长也预计在明年开始回稳。

他补充,整体企业盈利在过去7个季度下滑,许多备受看好的企业,表现皆逊于市场预期,尽管此情况可能维持,惟相信抵达新低点后,将会出现反弹。

“企业的目的就是赚钱,因此,会想方设法改善问题,包括节省开销、转换营运策略等。”

广告

李天翔也提到,马股近期走势动荡,相比国内因素,国外如中国和美国的动态更易牵动马股。

“中国经济走势,美国大选和升息议题等都会影响马股走势。”

他也分析美国总统大选带来的影响,表示无论希拉里或特朗普胜出,都不会对市场带来太大的影响。

“因为总统仅是一员,并不足以改变现有的策略,除非市场出现过大的反应,新兴市场的股市才会出现波动。”

广告

 
他也指出,美国是否会在年底再度升息,胥视总统大选由谁胜出才有定夺。

“一旦是特朗普胜出,升息决定可能延迟。”

李天翔认为,大马不太可能会在2017年举行全国大选。

“目前最重要的是稳住消费情绪和整体经济,且保持经济增长在4%的水平。”

大马依赖消费税多过石油收入

询及马股走势是否已与油价脱钩,李天翔指出,这仅是影响转微。他说,在早期,政府依赖石油收入,而目前则较依赖消费税,因此,油价涨跌对于马股走势影响转弱。

李天翔根据Fundsupermart.com(FMS)研究部的报告指出,相信亚洲包括新兴市场目前皆出于转捩点。

“相信在重估及企业盈利上调后,在2018年杪前,将有潜能上升40%。”

他说,主要是因为原产品价格已在年初触底,并有望出现大幅度反弹。

“另一个原因则是中国经济出现好转的迹象,国内消费稳健,有望推动市场走扬。”

看好GLC

询及马股投资策略方面,联昌信安资产管理公司首席投资员张健平表示,以当下市场而言,该公司看好政府相关公司,主要是这些公司皆面对营业额压力,因此这些公司都在致力于提高营运效率。

“政府相关公司也有迹象显示,营运效率已经开始在改善。”

张健平补充,预期未来几个季度,政府相关公司将会显现更好的表现,并认为服务、种植及建筑领域,备受看好。

肯纳格投资公司副总裁郭敬辉看好建筑与消费领域,因东盟地区不断在发展大型基建,而这些基建领域竣工后,可降低运输成本,并提供较低的通膨率。

针对马股展望,郭敬辉认为,市场预测大马2017年经济成长可达到4.4%,在经济成长为前提下,企业表现也会尾随经济成长的走动。

大马经研院(MIER)预测,大马2016年经济成长为4.2%。

2012至2015年,大马经济成长分别为5.6%、4.7%、6%及5%。

针对油气领域方面,郭敬辉认为,目前该领域处于供过于求,因此谨慎看待油气领域。

“除个别一两家上游油气公司以外,我们并没有看中其他油气公司。”

此外,张健平与郭敬辉也表示,亚洲整体市场来看,他们看好中国、印尼与印度的前景。

郭敬辉说,印尼中行下砍利率,亦降低了通膨率,加上大宗商品价格回扬,相信该国2017年有正面的展望。

张健平预期亚洲明年的经济成长可达到5%,主要这些国家,许多地区开始踏入城市化,而城市化的过程,需要大量的基建设施,进而推动经济成长。

“以印尼为例,该国以前的汽车销量并不高,现在印尼每个月的汽车销售达3万辆。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 08, 2016, 06:55:08 AM



Foreign selling on Bursa picks up to RM948.1m
Posted on 8 November 2016 - 05:39am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: Foreign investors turned more aggressive in their trading of Malaysian stocks last week, selling RM948.1 million, said MIDF Research.

“Foreigners dumped RM948.1 million last week, the fifth highest weekly outflow this year. This is estimated based on transactions in the open market which excluded off market deals,” it said in its fund flow report yesterday.

“Net foreign selling dominated the entire trading week. The attrition turned ugly in the last two days of the week as the amount offloaded exceeded RM250 million per diem. On Friday, the liquidation hit RM348.6 million, the third highest in a day this year,” it added.

According to MIDF Research, the cumulative year-to-date net foreign purchase of Malaysian-listed shares is now only RM1.06 billion, down from a peak of RM6.47 billion in April.

Foreign investors have redeemed RM5.41 billion since April, compared with RM19.5 billion and RM6.9 billion net outflow in 2015 and 2014 respectively, it added.

Meanwhile, foreign participation rebounded sharply last week with foreign average daily value of shares traded (ADTV) rising 15% to RM843 million.

“Still, it was relatively moderate. The last time it broke the RM1 billion mark was five weeks ago,” said MIDF Research.

It said the market was heavily supported by local institutions last week as retail participation remained depressingly weak.

“Retail ADTV remained below RM500 million five weeks in a row now. We reiterate that the market has not seen the extent of retail withdrawal since early 2013,” it said
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 08, 2016, 10:14:16 AM



财经
政治風險升溫 馬泰菲經濟存憂慮
 52点阅   2016年11月07日
(新加坡7日訊)東南亞三大主要經濟體泰國、菲律賓和大馬的政治風險提升,使經濟增長蒙上陰影,令市場擔憂。

“彭博社”報導,今年10月外資急速撤離泰國股市、菲律賓披索貶至全球金融危機水平,及大馬貨幣欲振乏力,都反映三國的政治環境風險提升。



《南中國海:亞洲的權力鬥爭》作者海頓(Bill Hayton)表示:“區域再次出現地緣政治競爭,導致冷戰結束以來的不確定性因素重現。”

大馬受累於1MDB

凱投宏觀分析師稱,目前金融市場受到主要衝擊。菲律賓及泰國明年將面對更多不確定因素,主要取決于政治發展。

大馬的不確定性圍繞在一馬公司涉及貪污及洗黑錢醜聞,儘管一馬公司與大馬首相拿督斯里納吉多次否認指控,但納吉在國內的支持率已下滑。

外資在10月間,于泰國股市拋售5.1億美元(約21.5億令吉),相當于在菲律賓拋售總值的五倍。加上泰王駕崩,王儲瓦吉拉隆功要求延后登基,王位繼承問題和政局成為國際關注焦點。長達一年的哀悼期間,泰國娛樂、休閒及旅遊業要取得成長恐面對阻力。

菲律賓披索兌美元匯率于10月創七年新低,為1美元兌48.6比索,從8月開始計算,從菲股撤走的資金已超過6億美元(約25.3億令吉)。

不過,迄今未有人預測東南亞將爆發經濟危機。風險機構“政治觀察者”(Political Monitor)主管卡默里奇提醒,令人擔憂的不确定因素持續升溫,其他挑戰包括中國在本區域擴增軍事與政治力量,他把東南亞的風險展望界定為“适中至高度”之間
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 09, 2016, 06:34:35 AM



(财经  2016年11月08日
马股重返盈利成长週期 18股项估值具吸引力

(吉隆坡8日讯)马股今明两年將重返盈利成长週期,因此,分析员以可反映未来盈利增长的本益成长比(PEG)为准,挑选出18只估值具吸引力,而目前仍落后大市的股项。

MIDF研究分析员指出,本益比是市场最普遍用以衡量一家公司估值的工具,不过,这个估值方式,並不能够很好的反映一家公司未来將会有的更高盈利成长。

为了更好地反映企业盈利未来的成长走势,MIDF研究分析员认为,目前更实合以本益成长比(PEG)来衡量企业的估值。

以PEG指標选股


PEG指標是以公司的本益比除以盈利增长速度所得到的数值,市场可通过该指標观察企业目前財务状况,和企业未来增长预期,是一种更適合目前马股情况的选股参考指標。

分析员解释说,这主要是因为马股的企业盈利来到一个转折点,趋势將开始出现转变。

「经歷长达3年(2013年至2015年)的盈利衰退期后,市场人士皆看好,富时大马综合指数將进入復甦週期,2016年和2017年的企业盈利將各別上涨5.70%和7.98%。」

由于PEG指標可以为市场提供更好的前瞻观点,分析员可从中筛选出值得市场注意及被低估股项。

分析员以未来2年的盈利复合成长率预测为基础,计算出大马交易所市值100大上市公司的PEG。PEG低于1倍,是被低估的股项。

「在经过一轮的计算后,100家上市公司中只有18家PEG低于1倍,当中布米阿玛达(ARMADA,5210,主板贸服股)的PEG最低,只有0.33倍。」

MIDF研究分析员进一步说,在18家PEG低于1倍的公司中,油气岸外服务供应商佔了3席,分別为布米阿玛达、云升控股(YINSON,7293,主板贸服股)和沙布拉肯查纳石油(SKPETRO,5218,主板贸服股)。

云升控股和沙布拉肯查纳石油的PEG各別为0.50倍和0.73倍。

同时,银行、汽车、產业和种植领域也各有2家公司入榜,即联昌国际(CIMB,1023,主板金融股)、兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融股)、合顺(UMW,4588,主板消费股)、BERMAZ汽车(BAUTO,5248,主板贸服股)、绿盛世(ECOWLD,8206,主板產业股)、马资源(MRCB,1651,主板產业股)、陈顺风资源(TSH,9059,主板种植股)和FELDA环球投资(FGV,5222,主板种植股)。

「要注意的是,未来盈利年復合成长率预测的准確性,將影响PEG估值法。」

年杪目標1750点

整体而言,MIDF研究分析员重申综指2016年杪目標为1750点,並给予2017年杪综指目標为1830点。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 13, 2016, 08:38:58 AM



2016-11-12 18:12
亚洲惨兮兮.美股汇唱丰收
特朗普效应席卷,亚洲股汇在这一周凄风苦雨,而美股汇却继续奏凯歌,道琼斯工商指数再狂飙5%冲新高,美元无汇指则升逾2%,一年来最大涨幅。
(美国.纽约12日电)特朗普效应席卷,亚洲股汇在这一周凄风苦雨,而美股汇却继续奏凯歌,道琼斯工商指数再狂飙5%冲新高,美元无汇指则升逾2%,一年来最大涨幅。

广告

 
美股本周飙5%
5年最高

投资人期望特朗普上任扩大财政政策及放宽监管来刺激经济,激励华尔街金融市场继续做多,道指连飙5天,再创收盘新高,不过标普指数相对疲软,终场三大指数涨跌互见。

道指终场上涨39.78点,或0.21%,收在18847.66点,本周飙涨5.36%,为2011年以来的5年最大单周涨幅;标准普尔500指数下跌3.03点,或0.14%,收在2164.45点,周上涨3.8%,为2014年10月以来最强;以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数上涨28.317点,或0.54%,收在5237.113点。

市场认为,特朗普的贸易政策恐冲击美科技公司,相关个股今卖压仍沉重,脸书及亚马逊分别挫跌1.45%、0.43%,苹果股价开盘一度重摔逾1%,随后震荡翻红,尾盘上涨0.59%,收报108.43美元。

“新债王”冈雷克也对科技股持较悲观的看法,预期标普将于2200点见顶,如要投资股票,可抢进工业及金融股,但科技网路股就别碰。

德股上升
英法下跌

广告

在欧洲,英国富时100指数收报6730,跌1.43%或97点;德国DAX指数收报10667,升0.36%或37点;法国CAC40指数收报4489,跌0.92%或41点。

美元周升逾2%1年最大

另一方面,投资者揣测特朗普推出刺激通膨的措施,美元兑一篮子主要货币的汇价周五继续上扬,单周升幅更是一年来最大。

美元指数本周累计升逾2%,是2015年11月以来最大单周升幅。欧元兑美元汇价周五跌至3月以来最低,报1.0836。

广告

美元兑日圆汇价曾经偏软,但周五纽约尾市收复失地,最终变动不大,但累计本周仍升3.5%。

美元兑人民币与墨西哥披索的汇价周五也上扬,前者一度升至6.85水平,周五纽约尾市升0.2%至6.8120;后者兑美元汇价跌3%,创下纪录新低的21.395。市场揣测特朗普执政后,美国对新兴国家的政策有变,令到当地资金流走。

巴菲特:无论谁当选
美股都会升

股神巴菲特周五表示,美国股市将会继续上升。

一直表态支持希拉里的巴菲特接受CNN电视台访问时指出,无论是希拉里或特朗普当选,股市在未来10年、20年或30年会继续上升。

他认为,美国股市周三的大跌现象是无知的。

他批评,特朗普阵营希望向墨西哥与中国进口货品征收关税的做法是非常差劣的构思,但不致会导致美国经济衰退。

他相信,此举只会引发报复。他也怀疑特朗普要求重新商议贸易协定的政纲可否落实,因为共和党控制的国会可能不容许此事发生。

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经‧2016.11.12
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 13, 2016, 01:49:54 PM



财经
加息預期.油產反增.美元續強 本周市場 又雷電交加?
 852点阅   2016年11月13日
斯坦利費希爾上週五的談話,為市場傳達了一個強烈的加息預期。
斯坦利費希爾上週五的談話,為市場傳達了一個強烈的加息預期。
文:李原

上星期五,亞洲多國貨幣因為特朗普這個大家口中的「瘋子」當選美國總統,紛紛上演1111大震盪,這個星期一(14日)又會否出現任何「餘震」?



這裡暫且不說特朗普,先說美國大西洋那頭刮來的另一場腥風血雨。美國一個名叫斯坦利費希爾(Stanley Fischer)的人,他是美聯儲副主席,擁有美國重要貨幣政策的永久投票權,上週五他開口說話了。

他說,美國目前的利率仍低於正常水平,去寬鬆的理由很強。

對於一直被認為是阻礙美聯儲加息的通脹現象,斯坦利費希爾認為,由於美元升值,通脹造成的不利影響已經基本消退。

他的談話,為市場傳達了一個強烈的加息預期。他還強調,美聯儲對負利率並不熱心。

原本特朗普當選後,沒有人再拿加息的事在市場玩「狼來了」,誰知這時卻殺出斯坦利費希爾對市場拋出這樣的訊息,結果又燃起市場對美聯儲12月加息的預期。市場押注美聯儲加息的情緒,又開始蔓延,促使美元繼續走強。

美國聯邦基金利率期貨的數據顯示,美聯儲在12月加息的概率,高達81.1%。

斯坦利費希爾這樣放話後,市場頓時又烏雲密佈,接著密歇根大學發佈報告顯示,美國11月密歇根消費者信心指數初值91.6,高於預期的87.9和10月終值的87.2,創今年六月以來新高後,市場的天空更是雷電交加。

市場擔憂原油過量

加上石油輸出國組織(OPEC )公佈月度原油市場報告顯示,10月OPEC原油產出增加24萬桶/日至3364萬桶/日 ,為2008年以來最高水平。

伊朗10月原油產量為369萬桶,但該國政府則宣稱,其10月原油產量為392萬桶,且產量增幅達到制裁解除後最大。

美國油服公司貝克休斯公佈的數據顯示,截至11月11日當周,美國活動原油鑽井平台增加2座至452座,為九個月以來新高。

種種跡象表明,市場擔憂原油供應過剩加劇,及對OPEC月底的減產計劃不抱太大期望後,吉隆坡時間12日凌晨,國際商品市場一片哀鴻。

商品市場哀鴻遍野

-COMEX黃金期貨收盤暴跌42.10美元(約180令吉),跌幅3.3%,一周累計跌幅逾6%,創2013年以來最大單周跌幅,報1224.30美元(約5240令吉)/盎司。

-現貨白銀暴跌1。31美元(約5令吉60仙),至每盎司17.30美分(約74令吉),跌幅7.1%實在觸目驚心。

國際原油也難逃慘跌的命運,雙雙跌破45美元(約192令吉60仙)。布倫特原油期貨跌1.09美元(約4令吉65仙),跌幅達2.38%,報44.75美元(約191令吉53仙)/桶;WTI原油期貨收跌1.25美元(約5令吉35仙),跌幅2.80%,報43.41美元(約185令79仙)/桶。

依照市場形勢,本周美元顯然會繼續走強,黃金白銀短線或下跌。國際原油價格也暫時不會有起色,直到OPEC用行動證明,他們已經實實在在的減產
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: bankerman on November 13, 2016, 04:30:33 PM
The matket will hit a new height as all bad news have come out  .
 kub oversold, ikhmas oversold, efficen break new height
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on November 13, 2016, 05:16:56 PM
wa geh fee mui leh??! si ikan besar chiak habis left bone for me now?! sigh..... :S :'(
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on November 13, 2016, 05:29:15 PM
(http://www.funny-animalpictures.com/media/content/items/images/funnyrabbits0044_O.jpg)

faster.....faster....siapa cepat dia dapat!
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 16, 2016, 06:16:39 AM



Tuesday, 15 November 2016
Weak ringgit to impact 5 sectors
BY INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL







 Clearer picture: A money changer worker counts US dollar notes for a customer in Kuala Lumpur. CIMB Research expects the ringgit’s volatility to contrinue until there is greater clarity on the new US administration’s economic and trade policies
Clearer picture: A money changer worker counts US dollar notes for a customer in Kuala Lumpur. CIMB Research expects the ringgit’s volatility to contrinue until there is greater clarity on the new US administration’s economic and trade policies
 
PETALING JAYA: Exporters are back on investors’ radars, following the recent steep decline in the value of the ringgit against the greenback after the United States presidential election last week.

However, there is no rush yet to pick up bargain stocks on Bursa Malaysia.

The FBM KLCI took another big hit yesterday after falling by more than 1% for the second consecutive day amid heavy foreign sell-off.

“Fundamentally, we think markets may be overreacting to the ‘Trump risk’ in the near term, as speculative positioning takes hold,” said CIMB Research in a note to clients

On the volatility of the ringgit, it expects the trend to remain until there is greater clarity on the new US administration’s economic and trade policies.

The ringgit strengthened marginally yesterday to 4.33 against the US dollar.

CIMB Research said HeveaBoard Bhd, Top Glove Corp Bhd and Evergreen Fibreboard Bhd are among the companies that would gain the most from the weak ringgit in terms of earnings.

“Share prices of YTL Power International Bhd, Genting Plantations Bhd and Inari Amertron Bhd fell 1%-3% last Friday despite being beneficiaries of a weak ringgit. We have ‘add’ calls on these stocks and the selldown could present buying opportunities for investors,” it added.

The banking sector was also among the beneficiaries of the weaker ringgit on the back of overseas operations, CIMB Research said.

Among the banks that are set to benefit are Malayan Banking Bhd, RHB Bank Bhd, Hong Leong Bank Bhd and Public Bank Bhd.

On the other hand, CIMB Research reckoned that companies that have exposure to the automotive and airline industries, namely, Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd, Bermaz Auto Bhd, UMW Holdings Bhd, AirAsia Bhd and AirAsia X Bhd, would be negatively impacted from the stronger US dollar and yen.

“AirAsia will be impacted by the weaker ringgit, although this is buffered to some extent by the low oil prices. About 60%-70% of AirAsia’s costs are US dollar-denominated,” it added.

On the contrary, although many research houses are bullish on the export counters to benefit from the weak ringgit, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research said that the sector is vulnerable from president-elect Trump’s anti-trade views.

“While the market may continue to react to the strong US dollar, we caution that export stocks may still be affected by Trump’s anti-trade sentiment.

“The technology sector is more vulnerable to any trade policy change compared to resource-based sectors,” it said.

HLIB Research said the strong US dollar would be positive for sectors such as rubber product manufacturers, the gaming industry as well as technology companies.

It is negative for sectors such as automotive, aviation, telecommunications, consumer and power.

While the cheaper ringgit does not necessarily translate to higher exports for Malaysian products, companies such as rubber glove makers, semiconductors and furniture-related companies are expected to benefit from the weaker ringgit, according to analysts.

“Naturally, beneficiaries of the strong US dollar are exporters and companies with significant US-dollar assets,” said UOB KayHian in a report yesterday.

The research house prefers the electric and electronic manufacturers such as Inari, VS Industry Bhd and EG Industries Bhd on the back of revenue growth and margin improvement as compared to exporters.

“We are less enthusiastic on the loftily-valued rubber glove manufacturers, as the supply-demand dynamics for nitrile glove remain unfavourable.

“Hence, continuing downward pressure on the US dollar pricing of nitrile gloves could mostly offset the positive US dollar effect,” it said.

UOB KayHian reckoned that the stronger ringgit would not have a huge impact on exporters compared to in 2015.

“Since a strong US dollar is now a consensus view (unlike in 2015), buyers have actively squeezed down the US dollar pricing on Malaysian exporters, which reduces the quantum of the exporters’ windfall margins and hence the exporters’ ability to positively surprise on earnings,” it said.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 23, 2016, 06:30:51 AM



经济结构改革不足
贝莱德续减持马股
585点看 2016年11月22日

麦利宏(左)认为,大马国内经济结构改革的力道不足。右为陈清良。

(吉隆坡22日讯)鉴于外围不稳定、国内经济结构改革不足,加上其他区域市场的竞争,全球领先的资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock),继续“减持”我国的投资市场。


贝莱德董事经理兼亚太区多元资产策略主管麦利宏,在今天的“全球和亚太区域市场展望”汇报会中指出,比起其他国家的市场,国内的经济结构仍有空间的改善。

此外,区域内其他国家具有更好的投资优势,也削弱了我国对投资者的吸引力。

麦利宏补充:“我们对大马股市和固定收入市场的评级,分别为‘负面’和‘减持’。”

同时,贝莱德看好亚洲部分市场,包括中国、印度以及印尼;而对美国和日本股市,则给予“中和”评级,且短期内不看好欧洲市场。

出席今天汇报会的,包括大马银行(AMBANK,1015,主板金融股)旗下的大马投资(AmInvest)零售及退休基金高级副总裁陈清良。

另外,近期美国大选的结果,为市场添加了不安情绪,其中牵涉到我国的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPPA)可能胎死腹中。

即将成为美国新任总统的特朗普更扬言,在上任第一天,就会立即取消该项协定。

跨协不会胎死腹中

对此,麦利宏则乐观认为,TPPA胎死腹中的几率小,他预测该协议的成员国,将继续商讨或以另一种形式取代TPPA。

麦利宏也提到:“特朗普的当选,确实为全世界投下了震撼弹,目前,我们还不了解他的经济政策,而这也正反映在目前的市场走势里。”

另一方面,陈清良也认同,特朗普的当选,让市场在短期内,无法有明确的方向,因此,他无法为短期内的市场走势,做出具体的预测。

“股市还未出现进场买入的机会,因为市场正经历自6月份英国脱欧后的第二次震荡,需要一段时间适应。”

由于股市目前起伏不定,因此,陈清良建议投资者选择长线投资方案,比如投资房地产、固定收入金融产品如债券等。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 23, 2016, 06:49:55 AM



BlackRock underweight on Malaysia
Posted on 23 November 2016 - 05:36am
Ee Ann Nee
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
KUALA LUMPUR: Asset manager BlackRock is underweight on Malaysia’s fixed income outlook and dislikes Malaysia’s equity market, given greener pastures in other parts of the world and protracted structural reforms here, said BlackRock managing director and head of multi-asset platform strategy Asia Pacific Steven Moeller.

“We continue to be underweight to Malaysia but we also see things beginning to improve. But we still need to see certain things (structural reforms) happen in Malaysia before we move to an overweight position,” he told a media briefing here yesterday on 2017 Asia Investment Outlook.

Moeller is taking a wait-and-see stance following Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election and remain cautious on his views.

BlackRock has been overweight on the equity markets in Asia and the emerging markets given the economic reforms and valuations, assuming no major change to trade policies. It is also overweight on the fixed income market in Asia and emerging markets given improved fundamentals.

AmInvest senior vice-president of retail and retirement funds Alex Tan said it is still a wait-and-see position until the first quarter next year but the alternative plan for investors is Asia.

“Asia is still a lucrative platform for all of us,” said Tan.

He said Malaysian investors are putting their money into fixed income, going into the Asia Pacific markets and opting for alternative assets and the safe haven type of funds.

“They’re not going into aggressive global funds. We don’t see a trend of that just yet. It’s still Asia and Asia Pacific,” said Tan.

He said investors hunt for yields and AmInvest must look for differentiated assets that provide such yields.

“At this point of time, we don’t see that much opportunities in Malaysia just yet,” Tan said.

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s head of Asian Equities Andrew Swan said in a statement he is increasingly optimistic on Asia given positive signs of reflation and a recovery of nominal GDP growth in China; which should lead to dramatic improvement in industrial profits and plays very positively for the region.

For Asia, the key near-term risk is a continued strengthening in the US dollar which puts potential issues such as renminbi devaluation risk back on the table as well as allowing less policy flexibility amongst Asian central banks.

“Given tepid global growth, we do not foresee a meaningful rise in US rates despite signs of deflation fading,” Swan said.

Valuations remain below long-term historical averages and already reflect negative sentiment and positioning.

Asian Credit head Neeraj Seth on the other hand said they have a broadly positive view on Asian credit fundamentals going into 2017. Valuations remain attractive relative to traditional fixed income assets, supported by a good technical backdrop.

However, given the shift in risk sentiment and US rate moves post election, BlackRock is cautious in the near term until there is further clarity on US policies
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 23, 2016, 07:03:17 AM



特朗普胜选 基金撤出亚洲
外资上周抛售11.37亿马股
49点看 2016年11月23日
(吉隆坡22日讯)外资上周进一步抛售马股,一共净卖出11亿3790万令吉的马股,比前周的8亿40万令吉要多。

MIDF研究报告显示,马股自5月初就受到外资流出的影响,但上周的抛售情况更为严重。


惟相比北亚市场,马股外资流出的情况,则是相对的平稳。

上周,外资延续“卖势”,持续成为净卖家,其中,周二的卖压最严重,共流出3亿3040万令吉的外资;最轻微则是落在周四,共脱售1亿810万令吉的马股。

散户趁低买入

由于外资持续流出,外资如今已成为马股今年迄今的净卖家。

从年初至今,外资从4月买进64亿7000万令吉马股,已转变成卖出8亿7740万令吉的马股。

然而,相比去年,目前资金流出的数额还算低,因为自4月起,外资仅撤走了73亿令吉。反观去年,外资净流出乃高达195亿令吉。

分析员指出,散户在10月共买进4亿9850万令吉股票,趁低买入的情况也比前周增加,达3830万令吉。


新兴股债市流出485.5亿

特朗普胜选后,全球基金已在亚洲新兴市场脱售了近110亿美元(约485.5亿令吉)的股票及债券,因市场认为特朗普的政策会促使美元走扬,美国政府债券的收益率也走高。

根据彭博社,冲击最大的是印度,资金流出达29亿美元(约128亿令吉),接下来是泰国,达28亿美元(约123.5亿令吉)。

11月9日至18日的资金外逃,已将该些市场今年迄今的净流入,收窄至561亿美元(约2475.2亿令吉),包括印尼、菲律宾、台湾和韩国。

期间,美元指数扬升3.4%,导致韩元跌4.3%、印尼盾挫2.6%、菲律宾比索也贬值2.5%。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 23, 2016, 07:09:09 AM



一水之隔天渊之别/陈金阙
588点看 2016年11月22日

玉楼金阙●陈金阙

不管做什么投资,只要是新元换过来,年回酬没有10%以上的话,投资者很可能栽在汇率上。

上周六临时有事,去了一趟新加坡。这次比较特别,因为是公事,做完了反而有空和几位廿多年没见的老同学聚会。


其实久没见面了,难免有些迟疑,因为害怕对方感到生疏或者麻烦而不想赴会。

幸好这次随行的还有一位同学,他是交朋友的高手,许多朋友或同学过了二、三十年依然和他有密切的联络,因此同学相聚,我算是沾光了。

几位同学都已在邻国落地生根,生活过得还不错,而且有些已经是当地国民。我们既为他们在异国生活得不错感到开心,当初的辛苦漂洋过海,终于有所回报;闲聊之余,也为令吉兑换新元的一落千丈,以及国内生活水平的无理高涨感到失望。

由于我涉及投资行业,言谈之余,难免会谈到自己的老本行。

说真的,要教新加坡居民来大马投资,还真的有压力,原因是他们不只要考虑投资的回酬,还多了一重顾虑,汇率的变化。如果令吉长期下跌,一般的回酬可追不上汇率下滑。

汇率侵蚀回酬

我举个例子,如果在大马购买了一间屋子,价值15万令吉,以我之前的例子,10年有机会涨一倍,即屋价涨到30万令吉。可十年前2.02令吉约兑换1新元,现在是3.10令吉,兑换率掉了53%,因此,屋子涨幅实际只有(74257新元变成96774新元)30%,扣除费用,可追不上通货膨胀呢!

如果买的时机不对,比如几年前买入柔佛依斯干达经济特区的房屋的新加坡人,现在屋价跌又恰逢新元起,两边都是输家,还没算入外国人的产业盈利税呢!

所以,不管做什么投资,只要是新元换过来,年回酬没有10%以上的话,投资者很可能栽在汇率上。

切记不要投机

新加坡定期存款利率很低,约1%左右,如果有些人贪小便宜,把钱拿过来大马存定期,因为大马有3.3至4%,那个亏可吃大了!

有位同学就对自己当初把钱用来买大马的储蓄保险感到很痛心,因为回酬连定期存款还不如,唯有的安慰是至少还有一些保障吧。

所以,如果是问到过来买什么股票好?我其实有所保留。

狮城定存利率偏低

我觉得,因为新加坡定期利率偏低,如果选中的股票年年赚钱,股息有4至6%回酬,已经很好,无需考虑大马股市。

回酬4至6%不算很高,不过,这比放在定期存款的利息回酬好4至6倍,对他们的现金流很有帮助。

如果要追求每年10%以上的回酬,事实上,在任何国度的投资守则不会因为区域性而改变,只是会因为政策不同而做出适度的调整,奉劝他们得多下功夫做研究,而且切记不要投机。

及早接触股票基金

由于新加坡的定期存款利息偏低,我也希望他们早些接触股票或信托基金投资,累积经验,以免十年后退休时,因为对这类投资一无所知而却步。

惭愧,我给的忠告虽然是老生常谈,不过,新加坡同学似乎对股市接触不多,而且大家久没见面,还是谈得融洽。

其实我们虽是一水之隔,但是隔日大家又重回工作岗位,各忙各的,下一次见面可能遥遥无期。

希望到时再见,他们可以和我分享投资新加坡股票的心得,让我也可以借鉴借鉴。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: BullDog on November 23, 2016, 12:50:43 PM
 :clap: :clap: :clap: Time to gradually exit from bursa :clap: :clap: :clap:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on November 27, 2016, 06:50:44 PM



财经  2016年11月27日 | 记者:纪锋佑
令吉从最佳变最差 几家欢喜几家愁

令吉从最佳变最差 几家欢喜几家愁

11月11日,急贬的令吉匯率引起市场关注。令吉兑美元匯率在11日以4.285令吉水平掛收;然而,令吉匯率在岸外交易的最活跃无交割1个月远期合约(1 month non-deliverable forwards,简称NDFs)
却在当天大贬2.5%,至4.487令吉兑1美元,是自2004年9月以来的最低。

令吉急速走贬的局势,导致它从年初表现最佳的东盟货幣之一,转为年初至今在东盟表现最差的货幣之一,是继菲律宾披索之后,表现第2差。

与此同时,大马股市在11日当天也大跌18.55点或1.12%,至1634.19点。

截至上周五(25日),令吉兑美元报4.4530令吉,按周跌0.88%;但自川普于11月8日胜选美国总统以来,令吉兑美元已贬值6.02%。


隨著令吉匯率再度转弱,分析员指出,若疲软的趋势延续,出口股无疑是最大的贏家;而汽车股和航空股则是输家。

出口股大贏家 汽车航空股输家

在令吉匯率此波跌势下,联昌国际投行分析员指出,大马出口股是最大的贏家。

许多出口股,如顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113)、速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106)、亿维雅(HEVEA,5095)、常成控股(JTIASA,4383)和大安控股(TAANN,5012),它们的股价在11日当天,即时走高,涨幅介于3%至5%,是联昌国际投行所有追踪的股项中,涨幅最高的。

然而,汽车股和航空股则是令吉匯率贬值的输家,归咎于这两个领域的营运成本,大多以美元结算,这反映在11日当天的股价表现上,即BERMAZ汽车(BAUTO,5248)、亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099)、亚航X(AAX,5238)和合顺(UMW,4588)躋入当天的10大下跌股排行榜。

该分析员指出,当天的10大下跌股中,除了因为令吉贬值受影响的股项,一些股项是受到其他基本面因素或市场情绪拖累,它们包括科鼎(BIOHLDG,0179)、首要媒体(MEDIA,4502)、怡保花园房產信托(IGBREIT,5227)和OWG控股(OWG,5260)。

另外,分析员认为,杨忠礼电力(YTLPOWR,6742)、马银行(MAYBANK,1155)、云顶种植(GENP,2291)、IHH医疗保健集团(IHH,5225)、兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066)、Tune保障(TUNEPRO,5230)和益纳利美昌(INARI,0166),也將从令吉匯率贬值中受惠。

他说,以上股项並没有在11日令吉匯率大贬时应声上涨,相反的,它们股价呈跌;惟,他相信,这些公司会因令吉走弱而获利。

外匯兑换获利

分析员称,大马公司普遍上將受惠于令吉走贬,因为大宗商品和製成品出口商將更具竞爭优势,同时已经成功进军海外的许多大马公司,將从外匯兑换方面获利。

「受惠于令吉走贬的出口商,包括手套製造商、保险套製造商、种植业者、半导体製造商和木材公司。由于一些公司並没有將全部的外匯盈利与消费者同享,所以它们的盈利將因为赚幅改善而受到提振。」

他也举例说,在过去10至15年,积极进军海外市场,以及在海外拥有庞大业务的大马公司,预计將受惠于令吉走软,因为海外业务的盈利贡献,转换成令吉后,这些公司可取得更高的盈利。

在联昌国际投行追踪的股项中,该分析员点出令吉走贬的37只潜在受惠股(见图表)。

该37只潜在受惠股当中,29只为木材、科技、手套和大宗產品相关股项,另8只是有望从海外业务的盈利受惠的股项。

有人欢喜,固然有人愁。分析员认为,汽车、航空和食品饮料股,如果不能透过调涨產品价格,將令吉走贬而必须承担的较高营运成本转嫁予消费者,这类股项將是令吉贬值的最大输家。

与此同时,一些建筑商和公共事业业者,也是令吉走贬的潜在输家,因为它们的一些材料源自进口。

无论如何,分析员表示,此类公司的盈利所面临的潜在衝击並不显著。

此外,分析员称,一些公司並非受到进口和出口价格所影响,而是被非令吉借贷成本扯后腿。

在联昌国际投行所追踪的股项当中,IOI集团(IOICORP,1961)、合顺和亚航將可能蒙受庞大的外匯转换损失,这是基于它们的非令吉借贷所致。然而,分析员提醒说,这些损失非持续性。

*航空股

虽然国际油价疲软,在某程度上可抵销令吉匯率疲弱的衝击,但是亚航约60至70%的营运成本是以美元结算。

分析员指出,如果在2017財政年,令吉匯率从他所预测的4令吉兑1美元,贬值11%,至4.50令吉兑1美元,他给予亚航的核心盈利预测將从13亿1410万令吉,下修11.6%,至11亿6140万令吉。

无论如何,该分析员说,目前的飞机燃油价格处在每桶60美元,相比该分析员预测的每桶70美元。

假设以平均每桶60美元计算,即使令吉匯率走贬至4.50令吉,他所预测的核心净利或许会被上调。

实际上,几乎所有亚航的借贷都是以美元计算,其中1/3的贷款已进行外匯对冲,另1/3的贷款则是联营公司的租贷应收账款,而剩余的1/3则曝露在外匯风险下。

假设国际油价继续维持在低水平,將让亚航拥有更多的空间,来抵销令吉走弱所带来的衝击。

*种植股

棕油生產商是令吉走贬的受益者,因为大宗商品价格主要是以美元结算,生產商只有一些原料如化肥价格是以美元计算,佔总营运成本约三成。

同时,疲软的令吉也对本地原棕油价格正面,不过被较高的化肥成本和资本开销抵消了部份利好。在11日令吉大贬当天,原棕油期货价格上涨3%,至每公吨2976令吉,创下4年以来的新高。

原棕油价格每上涨1%,联昌国际投行分析员预计,他所追踪的种植股的盈利可提高1至3%。

他表示,主要受惠的公司,分別是云顶种植、FELDA环球投资(FGV,5222)、森那美(SIME,4197)、吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445)和IOI集团。惟,IOI集团以美元计算的债务所导致的匯率损失,將侵蚀该公司一部份盈利。

此外,FELDA环球投资旗下的马来亚糖厂(MSM,5202)將是令吉疲软的输家,因为令吉跌將造成原糖成本走高。

马来亚糖厂约80%的销售成本是以美元计算,所以FELDA环球投资受惠于原棕油价格上升的利好,可能被马来亚糖厂面临的负面影响所稀释。

*金融股

银行业將受惠于令吉贬值,因为它们的海外业务盈利將增加(因把海外盈利兑换成令吉)。

联昌国际投行分析员称,有4家银行的海外业务对集团带来显著贡献,分別是马银行(20%税前盈利来自海外业务)、兴业银行(占10%)、丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819)的海外业务占税前盈利的13%,以及大眾银行(PBBANK,1295)的海外业务占7至9%。该投行没有追踪联昌国际(CIMB,1023)。

该分析员说,令吉兑美元每贬值1%,银行股的盈利可提振0.1至0.2%。至于这些银行的债券不会受到太大的影响,因为银行已经对各自所发行的债券採取对冲策略。

举例说,如果它们发行的是美元债券,所筹得的资金多用来投资在美元计价的资產。

*消费股

至于消费领域,令吉贬值將导致大部份消费业者面对较高的进口成本,但是,分析员相信,餐饮业者和零售业者都能透过两方面应对,即把额外成本逐步转嫁给消费者,以及提高他们的营运效率。

在联昌国际投行所追踪的消费股当中,成功食品(BJFOOD,5196)预料受最大的衝击,因为该公司约40%的成本是以美元计价的原料。根据该分析员预测,美元兑令吉每升值1%,该公司的核心净利预测將萎缩0.9%至1%。

*保险股

分析员认为,TUNE保障是从令吉贬值中受惠最大的保险股。

因为估计TUNE保障2016至2018財政年,有30至35%的净利贡献將来自逾20个海外市场,包括泰国、印尼、新加坡、中国和澳洲。

分析员预测,令吉兑美元每贬值1%,该公司2016至2018財政年的净利將提振0.4%。

*產业股

对于拥有海外工程的產业公司,海外业务的贡献也会因令吉贬值而增加。联昌国际投行所追踪的產业股,包括实达集团(SPSETIA,8664)、UEM阳光(UEMS,5148)和东家集团(E&O,3417)都有海外项目。

惟,令吉走弱对本地產业公司的盈利没有太大的影响,因为房屋售价与匯率在短期內没有相互关係,而且发展商早已和承包商锁定工程成本。

*手套股

分析员指出,树胶手套商超过95%的营业额都是以美元计算,所以令吉贬幅在近期大于其他手套出口国如泰国和中国,相信將提振大马手套出口的需求量。2015年令吉大贬时,也曾发生类似情况。

然而,分析员不认为,令吉是次的跌幅將让手套股取得与当时相同的成长,归因竞爭日益激烈和原料价格高企。

分析员表示,原料以胶乳(令吉计价)为主的手套商,相较于原料以丁(美元计算)为主的手套商,前者的受益程度较大。

*电讯股

隨著令吉贬值,电讯股或许因为较高的国际直拨电话(IDD)成本,而受到少许衝击。

不过,分析员提出了两个缓衝因素,分別是:IDD业务只佔电讯公司整体业务的一小部份;以及电讯公司可以提高IDD收费,转嫁成本给消费者。

大马电讯公司拥有美元债务,但都已採取对冲策略。因此,分析员认为,当令吉在去年下半年崩盘时,电讯公司並没有面临庞大的外匯损失。

*小资本股

联昌国际投行分析员称,他所追踪的出口导向公司,如亿维雅、长青纤维板(EVERGRN,5101)、通源工业(TGUAN,7034)和佳源食品(KAWAN,7216)將受惠于令吉贬值。

此外,设施管理和废物收集系统公司--AWC设施(AWC,7579)也会从中受益,因为它在海外的工程项目是以美元结算。

*木材股

木材业是令吉疲软的主要贏家,因为它们大部份的產品將出口,而且以美元计价,同时它们的製造成本主要以令吉计价。

亿维雅和长青纤维板料成为木材股的最大受惠者,分析员估计令吉兑美元每贬值1%,亿维雅和长青纤维板的2017財政年每股盈利,將分別提振5%和6.7%;而常成控股和大安控股的2017財政年每股盈利也预计將提升5至6%。

*科技股

分析员说,明试控股(AEMULUS,0181,创业板)、益纳利美昌、马太平洋(MPI,3867)、宇琦科技(UCHITEC,7100)和友尼森(UNISEM,5005)等科技公司的销售多以美元结算,所以它们也是令吉转弱的受惠者。分析员估计,这些公司平均95%的营业额以美元结算,但以美元计算的成本只占55%。

当中,友尼森因为没有任何对冲策略,而且其营业额100%是以美元结算,所以分析员认为它是受益最大的科技股,预计令吉兑美元每贬值1%,该公司的净利將提升2.5%。

*公用事业股

匯率波动对本地电力业者预计无太大的影响,因为已签署的购电协议(PPA)或监管架构將保障它们的收入,而且它们的发电成本可以转嫁给消费者。

不过,对于拥有海外业务的发电公司,如杨忠礼电力和马拉卡(MALAKOF,5264)则有幸搭上令吉贬值的顺风车。

至于拥有大笔非令吉债务的发电公司,可能得承受一次性的外匯损失。联昌国际投行所追踪的电力股当中,只有国家能源(TENAGA,5347)拥有大笔非令吉债务。

因此,分析员预测,令吉兑美元每贬值1%,该公司2017年的每股盈利將减少0.8%。

总结:

综合来说,联昌国际投行认为,令吉贬值將带动出口股或拥有海外业务的公司,但这些公司近期的股价並没有受到激励,为投资者提供买进的机会。

同时,该投行维持富时大马综合指数在2016年杪可达1730点的目標。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: The-Keyman on November 27, 2016, 09:07:52 PM


财经  2016年11月27日 | 记者:纪锋佑
令吉从最佳变最差 几家欢喜几家愁

令吉从最佳变最差 几家欢喜几家愁

11月11日,急贬的令吉匯率引起市场关注。令吉兑美元匯率在11日以4.285令吉水平掛收;然而,令吉匯率在岸外交易的最活跃无交割1个月远期合约(1 month non-deliverable forwards,简称NDFs)
却在当天大贬2.5%,至4.487令吉兑1美元,是自2004年9月以来的最低。

令吉急速走贬的局势,导致它从年初表现最佳的东盟货幣之一,转为年初至今在东盟表现最差的货幣之一,是继菲律宾披索之后,表现第2差。

与此同时,大马股市在11日当天也大跌18.55点或1.12%,至1634.19点。

截至上周五(25日),令吉兑美元报4.4530令吉,按周跌0.88%;但自川普于11月8日胜选美国总统以来,令吉兑美元已贬值6.02%。


隨著令吉匯率再度转弱,分析员指出,若疲软的趋势延续,出口股无疑是最大的贏家;而汽车股和航空股则是输家。

出口股大贏家 汽车航空股输家

在令吉匯率此波跌势下,联昌国际投行分析员指出,大马出口股是最大的贏家。

许多出口股,如顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113)、速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106)、亿维雅(HEVEA,5095)、常成控股(JTIASA,4383)和大安控股(TAANN,5012),它们的股价在11日当天,即时走高,涨幅介于3%至5%,是联昌国际投行所有追踪的股项中,涨幅最高的。

然而,汽车股和航空股则是令吉匯率贬值的输家,归咎于这两个领域的营运成本,大多以美元结算,这反映在11日当天的股价表现上,即BERMAZ汽车(BAUTO,5248)、亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099)、亚航X(AAX,5238)和合顺(UMW,4588)躋入当天的10大下跌股排行榜。

该分析员指出,当天的10大下跌股中,除了因为令吉贬值受影响的股项,一些股项是受到其他基本面因素或市场情绪拖累,它们包括科鼎(BIOHLDG,0179)、首要媒体(MEDIA,4502)、怡保花园房產信托(IGBREIT,5227)和OWG控股(OWG,5260)。

另外,分析员认为,杨忠礼电力(YTLPOWR,6742)、马银行(MAYBANK,1155)、云顶种植(GENP,2291)、IHH医疗保健集团(IHH,5225)、兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066)、Tune保障(TUNEPRO,5230)和益纳利美昌(INARI,0166),也將从令吉匯率贬值中受惠。

他说,以上股项並没有在11日令吉匯率大贬时应声上涨,相反的,它们股价呈跌;惟,他相信,这些公司会因令吉走弱而获利。

外匯兑换获利

分析员称,大马公司普遍上將受惠于令吉走贬,因为大宗商品和製成品出口商將更具竞爭优势,同时已经成功进军海外的许多大马公司,將从外匯兑换方面获利。

「受惠于令吉走贬的出口商,包括手套製造商、保险套製造商、种植业者、半导体製造商和木材公司。由于一些公司並没有將全部的外匯盈利与消费者同享,所以它们的盈利將因为赚幅改善而受到提振。」

他也举例说,在过去10至15年,积极进军海外市场,以及在海外拥有庞大业务的大马公司,预计將受惠于令吉走软,因为海外业务的盈利贡献,转换成令吉后,这些公司可取得更高的盈利。

在联昌国际投行追踪的股项中,该分析员点出令吉走贬的37只潜在受惠股(见图表)。

该37只潜在受惠股当中,29只为木材、科技、手套和大宗產品相关股项,另8只是有望从海外业务的盈利受惠的股项。

有人欢喜,固然有人愁。分析员认为,汽车、航空和食品饮料股,如果不能透过调涨產品价格,將令吉走贬而必须承担的较高营运成本转嫁予消费者,这类股项將是令吉贬值的最大输家。

与此同时,一些建筑商和公共事业业者,也是令吉走贬的潜在输家,因为它们的一些材料源自进口。

无论如何,分析员表示,此类公司的盈利所面临的潜在衝击並不显著。

此外,分析员称,一些公司並非受到进口和出口价格所影响,而是被非令吉借贷成本扯后腿。

在联昌国际投行所追踪的股项当中,IOI集团(IOICORP,1961)、合顺和亚航將可能蒙受庞大的外匯转换损失,这是基于它们的非令吉借贷所致。然而,分析员提醒说,这些损失非持续性。

*航空股

虽然国际油价疲软,在某程度上可抵销令吉匯率疲弱的衝击,但是亚航约60至70%的营运成本是以美元结算。

分析员指出,如果在2017財政年,令吉匯率从他所预测的4令吉兑1美元,贬值11%,至4.50令吉兑1美元,他给予亚航的核心盈利预测將从13亿1410万令吉,下修11.6%,至11亿6140万令吉。

无论如何,该分析员说,目前的飞机燃油价格处在每桶60美元,相比该分析员预测的每桶70美元。

假设以平均每桶60美元计算,即使令吉匯率走贬至4.50令吉,他所预测的核心净利或许会被上调。

实际上,几乎所有亚航的借贷都是以美元计算,其中1/3的贷款已进行外匯对冲,另1/3的贷款则是联营公司的租贷应收账款,而剩余的1/3则曝露在外匯风险下。

假设国际油价继续维持在低水平,將让亚航拥有更多的空间,来抵销令吉走弱所带来的衝击。

*种植股

棕油生產商是令吉走贬的受益者,因为大宗商品价格主要是以美元结算,生產商只有一些原料如化肥价格是以美元计算,佔总营运成本约三成。

同时,疲软的令吉也对本地原棕油价格正面,不过被较高的化肥成本和资本开销抵消了部份利好。在11日令吉大贬当天,原棕油期货价格上涨3%,至每公吨2976令吉,创下4年以来的新高。

原棕油价格每上涨1%,联昌国际投行分析员预计,他所追踪的种植股的盈利可提高1至3%。

他表示,主要受惠的公司,分別是云顶种植、FELDA环球投资(FGV,5222)、森那美(SIME,4197)、吉隆甲洞(KLK,2445)和IOI集团。惟,IOI集团以美元计算的债务所导致的匯率损失,將侵蚀该公司一部份盈利。

此外,FELDA环球投资旗下的马来亚糖厂(MSM,5202)將是令吉疲软的输家,因为令吉跌將造成原糖成本走高。

马来亚糖厂约80%的销售成本是以美元计算,所以FELDA环球投资受惠于原棕油价格上升的利好,可能被马来亚糖厂面临的负面影响所稀释。

*金融股

银行业將受惠于令吉贬值,因为它们的海外业务盈利將增加(因把海外盈利兑换成令吉)。

联昌国际投行分析员称,有4家银行的海外业务对集团带来显著贡献,分別是马银行(20%税前盈利来自海外业务)、兴业银行(占10%)、丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819)的海外业务占税前盈利的13%,以及大眾银行(PBBANK,1295)的海外业务占7至9%。该投行没有追踪联昌国际(CIMB,1023)。

该分析员说,令吉兑美元每贬值1%,银行股的盈利可提振0.1至0.2%。至于这些银行的债券不会受到太大的影响,因为银行已经对各自所发行的债券採取对冲策略。

举例说,如果它们发行的是美元债券,所筹得的资金多用来投资在美元计价的资產。

*消费股

至于消费领域,令吉贬值將导致大部份消费业者面对较高的进口成本,但是,分析员相信,餐饮业者和零售业者都能透过两方面应对,即把额外成本逐步转嫁给消费者,以及提高他们的营运效率。

在联昌国际投行所追踪的消费股当中,成功食品(BJFOOD,5196)预料受最大的衝击,因为该公司约40%的成本是以美元计价的原料。根据该分析员预测,美元兑令吉每升值1%,该公司的核心净利预测將萎缩0.9%至1%。

*保险股

分析员认为,TUNE保障是从令吉贬值中受惠最大的保险股。

因为估计TUNE保障2016至2018財政年,有30至35%的净利贡献將来自逾20个海外市场,包括泰国、印尼、新加坡、中国和澳洲。

分析员预测,令吉兑美元每贬值1%,该公司2016至2018財政年的净利將提振0.4%。

*產业股

对于拥有海外工程的產业公司,海外业务的贡献也会因令吉贬值而增加。联昌国际投行所追踪的產业股,包括实达集团(SPSETIA,8664)、UEM阳光(UEMS,5148)和东家集团(E&O,3417)都有海外项目。

惟,令吉走弱对本地產业公司的盈利没有太大的影响,因为房屋售价与匯率在短期內没有相互关係,而且发展商早已和承包商锁定工程成本。

*手套股

分析员指出,树胶手套商超过95%的营业额都是以美元计算,所以令吉贬幅在近期大于其他手套出口国如泰国和中国,相信將提振大马手套出口的需求量。2015年令吉大贬时,也曾发生类似情况。

然而,分析员不认为,令吉是次的跌幅將让手套股取得与当时相同的成长,归因竞爭日益激烈和原料价格高企。

分析员表示,原料以胶乳(令吉计价)为主的手套商,相较于原料以丁(美元计算)为主的手套商,前者的受益程度较大。

*电讯股

隨著令吉贬值,电讯股或许因为较高的国际直拨电话(IDD)成本,而受到少许衝击。

不过,分析员提出了两个缓衝因素,分別是:IDD业务只佔电讯公司整体业务的一小部份;以及电讯公司可以提高IDD收费,转嫁成本给消费者。

大马电讯公司拥有美元债务,但都已採取对冲策略。因此,分析员认为,当令吉在去年下半年崩盘时,电讯公司並没有面临庞大的外匯损失。

*小资本股

联昌国际投行分析员称,他所追踪的出口导向公司,如亿维雅、长青纤维板(EVERGRN,5101)、通源工业(TGUAN,7034)和佳源食品(KAWAN,7216)將受惠于令吉贬值。

此外,设施管理和废物收集系统公司--AWC设施(AWC,7579)也会从中受益,因为它在海外的工程项目是以美元结算。

*木材股

木材业是令吉疲软的主要贏家,因为它们大部份的產品將出口,而且以美元计价,同时它们的製造成本主要以令吉计价。

亿维雅和长青纤维板料成为木材股的最大受惠者,分析员估计令吉兑美元每贬值1%,亿维雅和长青纤维板的2017財政年每股盈利,將分別提振5%和6.7%;而常成控股和大安控股的2017財政年每股盈利也预计將提升5至6%。

*科技股

分析员说,明试控股(AEMULUS,0181,创业板)、益纳利美昌、马太平洋(MPI,3867)、宇琦科技(UCHITEC,7100)和友尼森(UNISEM,5005)等科技公司的销售多以美元结算,所以它们也是令吉转弱的受惠者。分析员估计,这些公司平均95%的营业额以美元结算,但以美元计算的成本只占55%。

当中,友尼森因为没有任何对冲策略,而且其营业额100%是以美元结算,所以分析员认为它是受益最大的科技股,预计令吉兑美元每贬值1%,该公司的净利將提升2.5%。

*公用事业股

匯率波动对本地电力业者预计无太大的影响,因为已签署的购电协议(PPA)或监管架构將保障它们的收入,而且它们的发电成本可以转嫁给消费者。

不过,对于拥有海外业务的发电公司,如杨忠礼电力和马拉卡(MALAKOF,5264)则有幸搭上令吉贬值的顺风车。

至于拥有大笔非令吉债务的发电公司,可能得承受一次性的外匯损失。联昌国际投行所追踪的电力股当中,只有国家能源(TENAGA,5347)拥有大笔非令吉债务。

因此,分析员预测,令吉兑美元每贬值1%,该公司2017年的每股盈利將减少0.8%。

总结:

综合来说,联昌国际投行认为,令吉贬值將带动出口股或拥有海外业务的公司,但这些公司近期的股价並没有受到激励,为投资者提供买进的机会。

同时,该投行维持富时大马综合指数在2016年杪可达1730点的目標。

Sure bohhhh CIMB Investment Banker. .....2016 year end can reach 1730  :think: :think: :think:

Now bursa Malaysia market already holland liao lorrrr. ...mana boleh angkat kepala tengok sunrise  :'(

I foresee 2016 year end shall be 1610 ~ 1620 is more realistic  :D
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on November 27, 2016, 09:11:48 PM
Y kenot ? 3 days can reach destination! Malaysia boleh! Bursa boleh! Su Ma Tek! Mat Q Doh Tek! Hip hip hooray malaysia!  :clap: :clap: :clap:
Sure bohhhh CIMB Investment Banker. .....2016 year end can reach 1730  :think: :think: :think:

Now bursa Malaysia market already holland liao lorrrr. ...mana boleh angkat kepala tengok sunrise  :'(

I foresee 2016 year end shall be 1610 ~ 1620 is more realistic  :D
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: The-Keyman on November 28, 2016, 02:57:21 PM


财经  2016年11月27日 | 记者:纪锋佑
令吉从最佳变最差 几家欢喜几家愁

总结:

综合来说,联昌国际投行认为,令吉贬值將带动出口股或拥有海外业务的公司,但这些公司近期的股价並没有受到激励,为投资者提供买进的机会。

同时,该投行维持富时大马综合指数在2016年杪可达1730点的目標。

If I got chance to meet this talk c.o.c.k Cimb Investment Banker sure will slap his faces....... :swear: :swear: :swear:

Alway like to blow.......... >:( >:( >:(

You think Cimb Investment Bank can push index back to 1730  :yawn: :yawn: :yawn: :yawn: :yawn: :yawn:

Alway like to talk c.o.c.k................................ ...... :envy: :envy: :envy:

Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 01, 2016, 07:05:41 AM



受惠于美国经济转强
麦朴思唱好新兴市场反弹
25点看 2016年12月1日
 
麦朴思

(新加坡30日讯)“新兴市场教父”麦朴思认为,在总统当选人特朗普主政下,美国经济可能转强,进而提振新兴市场经济体,因而新兴市场的反弹行情有望持续。


也是邓普顿新兴市场集团执行董事长的麦朴思昨日在新加坡接受彭博电视访问时说:“MSCI新兴市场指数从11月14日的4个月低点已经上涨2.6%,而有些发展中国家货币,包括南非兰特和韩国韩元,过去一周都出现反弹。”

特朗普恐乱花钱

先前24个新兴市场货币兑美元在11月8日美国大选之后的两週原本全都贬值。

他说:“特朗普重振美国经济可能会成功,这对所有人都有好处,包括新兴市场在内。在我看来,特朗普计划会扩大基础建设的支出。他可能会疯狂花钱,引发财政赤字暴增,让评级机构担忧,从而促使美元走低。”


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: 柠檬哥 on December 01, 2016, 09:24:53 AM
Really not dare to buy share now, scare will stay in 5 star hotel.
1987-1997-2007-2017

so fast, another 10 year just past like that.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: The-Keyman on December 01, 2016, 09:34:37 AM
Despite brent oil jumped 9% but bursa market unable to angkat kepala  :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown:

Don't hope........hope become your killer  :D :D :D

Prepare to touch 1600 soon next week  :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on December 01, 2016, 02:05:26 PM
Malaysia Nikkei PMI falls to 47.1 in Nov, impacted by lower int'l demand and worsening operating conditions in goods-producing sector
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 01, 2016, 02:20:58 PM



With The Ringgit Weakening, Here’s What Singapore Investors Need To Know About Investing In Malaysian Stocks

By Lawrence Nga - November 30, 2016




0

inShare
As an investor, I like to observe when I visit shopping malls. Doing so helps me get a feel of how some retail-related companies and trusts are doing.

As a food lover, I pay special attention to how food & beverage retailers are doing.

But in my recent trips to malls, I have observed an interesting phenomena – people have started hanging out at the currency exchange counter. Many are either Malaysians hunting for the best exchange rates to send their income back to Malaysia or Singaporeans who want to switch some Singapore dollars into the ringgit.

This brings me to Malaysia’s currency: As I write this, one Singapore dollar is worth 3.13 ringgit, which is close to an all-time high! Given the fall in the ringgit, I thought it would be useful to look at the pros and cons of investing in Malaysian stocks from the perspective of a Singapore investor.

The positives:

1. Assets are selling at a discount

Given the depreciation of the ringgit against the Singapore dollar, even if a Malaysia-listed company has the same share price in ringgit terms when compared to a year ago, it will still be selling for a lower price tag today in terms of the Singapore dollar.

Some investors believe that currencies tend to fluctuate in a cyclical manner. For such investors, they may be buying stocks in countries with falling currencies to wait for the currencies to recover before selling them.

2. A larger domestic market and more investment choices

Malaysia’s population is around five times the size of Singapore – that results in the country having a much larger domestic market as compared to Singapore’s.

Singapore’s stock market also has less than 800 listed companies, which is considerably lower than the 1,700-plus listed entities in Malaysia.

By looking at Malaysia, investors can have more choices. For example, Singapore investors who are looking at Singapore-listed banks and telcos would find that there are only six in total (three banks and three telcos).

Malaysia’s stock market contains many banks such as Malayan Banking Berhad (KLSE: 1155.KL), CIMB Group Holdings Bhd (KLSE: 1023.KL), Public Bank Berhad (KLSE: 1295.KL), Hong Leong Bank Bhd (KLSE: 5819.KL), and RHB Capital Bhd (KLSE: 1066.KL).

It also has many telcos, such as Telekom Malaysia Berhad (KLSE: 4863.KL), Axiata Group Berhad (KLSE: 6888.KL), MAXIS BERHAD (KLSE: 6012.KL) and DiGi.Com Bhd (KLSE: 6947.KL).

 The Negatives:

 1. Malaysia is a different market

Despite having similar cultures due to having some shared history, Malaysia and Singapore are still two different markets. As such, Singapore investors may not have a good understanding of various aspects of Malaysia to make an informed investment decision.

Factors such as politics, the economy, social demographics, and more should be considered before investing in Malaysia’s stock market. Failure to do may put Singapore investors in a risky position.

 2. The ringgit may continue to depreciate

There’s no iron law in finance dictating that whatever goes down must come up. So, nobody really knows whether the ringgit’s current depreciation is short-term or long-term in nature.

 With the ringgit trading at close to an all-time low in relation to the Singapore dollar, Singapore investors may be tempted to buy stocks in Malaysia.

But investors should always consider both the risks and rewards before making any investing decision.

If you like what you've seen, you can get even more investing insights and analyses from The Motley Fool's weekly investing newsletter Take Stock Singapore. It's FREE, so do check it out here.

Also, like us on Facebook to follow our latest news and articles. The Motley Fool's purpose is to help the world invest, better.

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“Take Stock” covers all manner of financial topics for our 79,000 readers… from investing in REITs, to finding “hidden gem” stocks on the SGX exchange, to the latest market news from Athens, Beijing, and Washington D.C., and what it means for your investment portfolio.

You've probably seen Dr. Kuo on CNBC and ChannelNewsAsia. Heard him on BBC and 938LIVE. Or read him in The Straits Times and The Independent. You might have even caught his award-winning speech at INVEST Fair 2015. But you've never seen him "unfiltered" like you will in "Take Stock."


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The information provided is for general information purposes only and is not intended to be personalised investment or financial advice. Motley Fool Singapore contributor Lawrence Nga doesn’t own shares in any companies mentioned.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: shilau on December 02, 2016, 08:36:29 PM
2017 NAJIB goverment FUND 3 billions start buy small cap stock :thumbsup:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 05, 2016, 06:53:21 AM



Sunday, 4 December 2016 | MYT 5:03 PM
Early polls to buoy domestic market, says UOB Kay Hian Research






 UOB Kay Hian's top picks are Gamuda, Tenaga, Genting Bhd and Bumi Armada,
UOB Kay Hian's top picks are Gamuda, Tenaga, Genting Bhd and Bumi Armada,
 
KUALA LUMPUR: UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research expects the local stock market to be buoyed by expectations of a general election in 2017 after the disappointing corporate results for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2016.

In its recent strategy report, it said overall, it largely maintained its 2016-17 earnings forecasts for companies under its coverage.

“We expect FBM KLCI’s earnings to recover by 8% in 2017, a moderate turnaround after four years’ of near-zero or sub-zero growth.

“We maintain our end-16 FBMKLCI target at 1,700, with an indicative 1,730 target for end-2017 (bottom-up target of 1,740). Our end-16 target implies a high target 2017F PE of 16.6 times (+1.3 standard deviation to the historical mean of 14.7 times),” it said.



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UOB Kay Hian Research said its assessment imputes in year-end window dressing and positive catalysts.

The catalysts are a) improved crude oil price outlook post-OPEC’s production quota cut, which lifts the ringgit outlook; b) market to start pricing in a potential general election in 1H17; and c) modest resumption of corporate earnings growth.

“While the ringgit disappointingly did not appreciate against the US dollar on Thursday, investors will eventually look past concerns tied to Bank Negara’s recent curb against non-deliverable forwards (offshore trading), as the firm crude oil prices sustain.

“Investment themes in 2017 include: a) infra and building material plays, b) electrical and electronics (E&E) Trend Riders, and c) quality dividend plays.

“The first theme, which partly depends on China FDI, remains undiluted by China’s recent capital control. We expect China to continue supporting its government-supported strategic investments in Malaysia, which include various mega infrastructure and the Bandar Malaysia projects.

“Our top picks are Gamuda, Tenaga and Genting Bhd (replacing Genting Malaysia which has recently appreciated) or large-caps, and Bumi Armada, Ekovest, Kerjaya Prospek, Kim Loong, MRCB-Quill REIT and VS Industry for small-mid caps. Our top Sells  continue to be Hartalega, UMW and Telekom Malaysia,” it said.

As for the quarterly results ended Sept 30, 206, UOB Kay Hian Research said while the good news is that its corporate earnings growth forecasts remain effectively unchanged post 3Q16, the breadth of disappointments remain wide.

The small-medium capitalised companies’ results underwhelmed expectations. Earnings disappointments were a key factor in the recent sell-down of particularly small- and mid-cap concept stocks, adding woes to the post-Trump period.

“Nevertheless, we expect domestic equity markets to be buoyed by expectations of a general election in 2017,” it said.
The research house also said this was the first quarter of no downgrade for FBM KLCI earnings since 1Q14.

“Coming in as a pleasant break from all of the post-Trump negative economic developments (eg the ringgit’s plunge), were the largely in-line earnings in 3Q16 which is the first in-line quarter since 1Q14,” it said.

A total of 14 (14%) companies in our universe surpassed expectations while 25 (26%) companies underperformed our estimates, leaving the remaining 59 (60%) companies at par with our expectations. Providing some relief, the gaming sector and Tenaga were prominent earnings beaters.

As for the small-mid cap stocks were underwhelming. This results season was particularly bad for small-mid caps, with 32% of companies under UOB Kay Hian Research’s small-mid cap coverage missing expectations, versus only 18% which beat expectations.

“Investors’ intolerance for unpleasant earnings surprises were obvious, for example the 37.6% plunge in Felda Global Venture’s stock price in November (it guided for substantial losses). The FBM Small Cap Index fell 6.6% in November, underperforming the FBM KLCI by 5.6% year-to-date,” it said
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 13, 2016, 06:48:21 AM



Monday, 12 December 2016
Election catalyst for stock market in first half of next year?






 “Get ready for a more determined window dressing rally in about two weeks from now. That would be the first instalment of what is possibly in store for the next three to six months when foreign selling gets exhausted,” said Pong Teng Siew(inset pic), head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.
“Get ready for a more determined window dressing rally in about two weeks from now. That would be the first instalment of what is possibly in store for the next three to six months when foreign selling gets exhausted,” said Pong Teng Siew(inset pic), head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.
 
AMID expectations of window dressing, it is generally viewed that the election theme may also provide a catalyst to the KL stockmarket especially when foreign selling gets exhausted.

“Get ready for a more determined window dressing rally in about two weeks from now. That would be the first instalment of what is possibly in store for the next three to six months when foreign selling gets exhausted,” said Pong Teng Siew, head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.

Calling it more of an uptrend rather than year-end rally, Vincent Khoo, head of research, UOB Kay Hian, expects more upside to the stockmarket in the first half of next year.

What about the election catalyst? “The election catalyst should kick in fairly soon and we should see a stronger stockmarket by year-end,” said Chris Eng, head of research, Etiqa Insurance & Takaful.



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“Besides positive sentiment from history in relation to pre- and post-election runs, there are so-called election spending and friendly policies which may benefit some stocks and the market in general,” said Danny Wong, CEO, Areca Capital.

However, there is a view that the election theme may not likely to have much of an effect on the market.

“There is little room in the current situation to drive market direction independently of economic fundamentals,” said Thomas Yong, CEO, Fortress Capital.

For those who are optimistic, blue chips and generally, big caps are in favour. Under potential election spending,

Wong is looking at media, logistics, retail, telcos and Internet-related services while under people-friendly policies, the sectors include infrastructure, consumer and construction.

Eng is choosing Tenaga Nasional Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd and banks. In the case of banks, he sees improved economic prospects helped by higher fees based on foreign exchange transactions from exporters who now have to convert 75% of their earnings overseas into ringgit.

As a boost to this generally positive outlook, would the ringgit be expected to strengthen?

“There should be a small positive impact from the forex measures (introduced by Bank Negara to boost demand for and stop speculation in ringgit).

“A more stable exchange rate will possibly reduce the spreads and be positive for corporates in Malaysia,” said Hor Kwok Wai, chief operating officer, global markets, Hong Leong Bank.

Supposed to benefit from a weak ringgit, export-oriented stocks were regarded with favour for the rally at year-end or beginning of next year. Will the new forex ruling dampen their values?

Some see pressure on exporters’ margins while others see minimal impact.

“It is not advantageous for our exporters who are complaining about the lack of US dollars in the onshore market when it comes to paying for their liabilities in US dollars. It is hard to get more than US$1mil or US$2mil.

“This time around, world trade has weakened even more compared with last year’s bout of ringgit weakening. Customers overseas are demanding that our exporters ‘share’ the benefits of a weaker ringgit.

“Also, as commodity prices have risen this year, exporters’ margins have deteriorated sharply,” said Pong.

Flexibility in terms of conversion of forex earnings may be granted for deserving exporters.

“The impact on export oriented stocks is modest. I am confident that Bank Negara will provide flexibility to deserving exporters,” said Khoo.

More findings on the operational impact in relation to the conversion of forex may tell a different story.

“In the meantime, this may have a small impact on exporters in terms of cost of doing business especially for those with huge portions of non-ringgit denominated input cost,” said Wong, adding that until more findings on the operational aspect are made known, he sees little impact on valuation.

There is, at the same time, a positive edge to this development. “We do see some cost increases for exporters from the new ruling which will be beneficial to local banks as they will gain more forex fees onshore,” said Eng.

The way stocks are powering to all time highs on Wall Street is reminiscent of what former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan termed as “irrational exuberance” of heightened asset bubbles which may be followed by a long period of contraction.

“But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?” Greenspan was quoted to have said two decades ago.

Greenspan is now more worried about debt than equity, said Bloomberg, quoting his interview with the Wall Street Journal published Dec 3, adding that he also recognised his warning had had little impact and repeated his view that bubbles are almost impossible to stop once they get going.

While the worry is on asset bubbles in the United States, the concern in emerging markets is that they may face “pronounced outflows” in 2017 if president-elect Donald Trump’s planned stimulus spending sends US yields higher and further strengthens the US dollar.

That could prompt policy makers to take action, and they might even coordinate in a collective rebellion against the United States, said Bloomberg, quoting Nomura.

Warning of possible capital controls by emerging markets, Nomura was quoted as saying that countries most at risk are those with volatile currencies, low currency reserves and relatively low rates.

Columnist Yap Leng Kuen reckons investors would be astutely looking for opportunities in a financial minefield.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: rite_brain on December 13, 2016, 09:14:26 AM
all these so-call experts didn't see Oil price going up
& ask us to buy stocks like SKPETRO ?  :)
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 13, 2016, 07:48:27 PM



财经  2016年12月13日
大马股匯俱跌 市场看见买进时机

(吉隆坡13日讯)在野村证券看淡马股之际,也有部份市场人士认为,令吉成为亚洲新兴市场中下跌速度最快的货幣,而10年期政府公债的收益率刚创下8年新高纪录,大马股市亦已连续3年下滑录,因此认为,现在便是买进的好时机。

在石油输出国家组织(OPEC)与非OPEC產油国达成减產协议后,沙地阿拉伯昨天也意外宣布,从明年1月起扩大原油减產量。这项消息进一步提振国际油价。

布伦特原油价格週一大涨之后,今天微跌0.24%,至每桶55.74美元。令吉匯率则没有太大变化,今天下跌0.33%,至1美元兑4.4363令吉。

三菱UFJ国际资產管理公司表示,隨著市场预期美国会加快升息,使债市面对卖压,它们打算增持大马的主权债券。至於Areca资本私人有限公司和艾芬黄氏资產管理公司,同样看见买进马股的机会。


Areca资本首席执行员黄德明表示,「我们已对市场反弹作好准备。马股已失去吸引力,和区域股市相比今非昔比,但从技术面来说,马股现已超卖。」

同时,黄德明指出,货幣投机活动上个月加速资金外流,即使油价反弹,但令吉匯率仍疲弱。这对东亚唯一原油净出口国大马来说是不寻常的现象。

「沙地阿拉伯承诺削减比先前商定的更多油產量,可能使大马股市周二重新开市时走高。令吉匯率已和油价脱鉤,但若再次跟隨油价齐头並行,相信会大幅反弹。」

本地主权债券有超过1/3由外资持有,大马容易受到诸如川普当选美国总统般的外部衝击。令吉匯率自11月8日以来已经下跌5.3%,几乎是韩元跌幅的两倍。韩元是仅次於令吉的亚洲新兴市场最差货幣,

大马10年期公债的收益率上个月急升75个基点,至11月29日的4.46%,创下8年新高纪录,但上周已回落至4.10%。

另外,三菱UFJ国际资產管理基金经理认为,令吉匯率未来数个月或变得更加稳定,到时他们才会考虑重新投资大马。

三菱UFJ国际认为,若不將令吉匯率的脆弱性计算在內,除了高回酬的印尼和印度之外,大马市场比大部份区域市场更有吸引力。

实际上,令吉匯率从2013年起下跌了35%,富时综合指数同期则跌了12%,落后於至少上涨17%的泰国、印尼和菲律宾股市。

截至12月2日,外资在过去6周皆在净卖马股,今年內已撤资25亿令吉。

之外,艾芬黄氏资產公司股票部门主管顏永平称,它们会在市场面对卖压时买进。令吉过去3年里大幅贬值后已超卖。

国家银行先前宣佈,会为岸外货幣市场提供更大的对冲伸缩性后,大马各类资產在12月已经上扬。沙地减產促使布伦特原油价格在周一大涨6.6%,令市场锦上添花。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 15, 2016, 06:28:41 AM



Wednesday, 14 December 2016
Fund managers say good time to buy shares as ringgit weak






 “We are buying into this market sale,” said Gan Eng Peng(inset filepic),  equities head at Affin Hwang Asset.  “The ringgit’s massive depreciation over the last three years is overdone", he said.
“We are buying into this market sale,” said Gan Eng Peng(inset filepic), equities head at Affin Hwang Asset. “The ringgit’s massive depreciation over the last three years is overdone", he said.
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s ringgit is falling at the fastest pace among Asian emerging markets, the 10-year bond yield just spiked to an eight-year high and the stock market is closing in on a record third straight annual loss.

But fund managers say it’s a good time to buy.

Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co said it’s looking to add to holdings of Malaysian sovereign debt after expectations for faster US interest-rate increases spurred a selloff. Areca Capital Sdn Bhd and Affin Hwang Asset Management Bhd see an opportunity to buy the nation’s shares.

“We have positioned ourselves for a market rebound,” said Danny Wong Teck Meng, chief executive officer at Areca Capital, whose stock fund has beaten 98% of its peers with an 11%annual return over the past five years.



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“Malaysia is losing its core attractiveness, and the country doesn’t stand out like it used to compared to peers, but technically it’s oversold right now.”

A crackdown on currency speculators last month exacerbated outflows and saw the ringgit weaken even as oil rebounded, an unusual phenomenon for east Asia’s only net exporter of the commodity.

The ringgit has decoupled from oil and if it starts moving in tandem with crude again it should be poised for a sharp recovery, Areca’s Wong said last week before the Saudi announcement.

With more than a third of its local sovereign bonds held by foreigners, Malaysia is vulnerable to external shocks like Donald Trump’s election win. The ringgit has dropped 5.3% since Nov 8, almost twice as much as South Korea’s won, the next worst performer in emerging-market Asia.

The yield on Malaysia’s benchmark 10-year benchmark sovereign notes shot up 75 basis points last month, reaching an eight-year high of 4.46% on Nov 29 before falling to 4.1% by the end of last week.

“The ringgit will probably become more stable over a few months, and then we may consider increasing exposure to Malaysia,” said Tatsuya Higuchi, the Tokyo-based chief fund manager for foreign fixed income at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset, which managed US$105bil at the end of September. Excluding the currency vulnerability, Malaysia is more attractive than most of its peers apart from higher-yielding Indonesia and India, he said.

The ringgit has lost 35% since the end of 2013 and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index of shares fell 12%, trailing gains of at least 17 percent in Thai, Indonesian and Philippine gauges. Foreign funds net sold Malaysian stocks in each of the six weeks through Dec 2, taking outflows this year to RM2.5bil.

“We are buying into this market sale,” said Gan Eng Peng, the Kuala Lumpur-based equities head at Affin Hwang Asset, whose Select Opportunity Fund beat 98% of peers with a 9.7% return in the past year.

“The ringgit’s massive depreciation over the last three years is overdone, he said.

Malaysian assets have rallied in December as the central bank said it would provide greater hedging flexibility in the onshore currency market after last month’s crackdown deterred investment. – Bloomberg

The Saudi move, which drove a jump of as much as 6.6% in Brent crude on Monday, is an extra tailwind.

“The combination of relatively sharper depreciation in the ringgit and a higher proportion of foreign holdings in local government bonds contributed towards a more acute risk aversion response in Malaysia,” said Victor Yong, an interest-rate strategist at United Overseas Bank Ltd in Singapore.

“Further dampening of currency depreciation pressures will be beneficial.” – Bloomberg
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 16, 2016, 12:20:22 PM



WSJ: Investors selling M'sia's stocks, bonds as US rates rise
 ringgit usdollar 1mdb
 2 comments     Published Today 11:45 am     Updated Today 12:01 pm

114

 
Malaysia is reportedly one of Asia’s worst-hit economies in the face of rising US interest rates and the dollar.

According to Wall Street Journal today, foreign investors sold US$5.3 billion of Malaysian stocks and bonds in November, the largest monthly outflow since September 2011, according to ANZ Bank.

"That is almost a quarter of the US$22.1 billion pulled from emerging markets in the region, excluding China," wrote WSJ.

The bulk of this, it said, was US$4.5 billion of bonds, the biggest monthly debt outflow on record, according to ANZ.

This comes as the ringgit continues to slide amidst a loss of market confidence in the country's financial standing, of which the growing 1MDB scandal is one of the contributing factors.

"Despite the government’s various attempts to support the currency, the ringgit has lost 6.5% of its value against the greenback since the US election, hitting a nearly 19-year low on Nov 30.

"On Thursday, the currency weakened 0.9%, following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its first rate increase in 2016," wrote WSJ.

"Malaysia’s Achilles' heel is the high level of foreign ownership of its government bonds.

"Foreign money is flighty, a factor that can accelerate a liquidity crunch during times of stress," the financial daily reported.

Closing on week low

Bernama meanwhile reported the ringgit opening lower for the last trading day of the week, dampened by external sentiment, a dealer said.

At 9am, the ringgit was traded at 4.4660/4690 versus the US dollar from 4.4440/4480 at yesterday's closing.


Commenting on the US dollar's strength, FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said from a technical standpoint, the dollar is heavily bullish on the daily timeframe with yesterday's hawkish surprise sending the US dollar index to fresh 14-year highs above 102.50.

"The dollar's strength could become a key theme in 2017 as the improving sentiment towards the US entices bullish investors to propel the greenback higher," he said in a statement according to Bernama.

Against a basket of major currencies, the ringgit traded higher.

Vis-a-vis the Singapore dollar, the ringgit rose to 3.0945/0983 from 3.1049/1096 and versus the yen, it improved to 3.7758/7796 from 3.7846/7894 on Thursday.

Against the British pound, the local currency appreciated to 5.5320/5380 from 5.5873/5949, while against the euro it rose to 4.6518/6563 from 4.6851/6921



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/366301#ixzz4SyF9CFYl
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 16, 2016, 08:02:31 PM



财经
馬股估值相對便宜 宜作長期布局待反彈
 282点阅   2016年12月16日
20161217bs06

(吉隆坡16日訊)一年將過,明年股市投資該如何布局呢?



大眾投資研究認為,投資者應以長期投資布局,等待反彈;相較區域股市,馬股估值相對便宜,是增持的好時機,而且可將市場焦點投在種植、能源、建築及油氣4大領域。

報告指出,由于接下來也不太可能會有令人興奮的重大事件與發展,市場可能持續面對資金外流,加上目前的不穩定市況將延續一段時期。

無論如何,從原油價處在每桶45美元(約201.40令吉)上方,以及令吉沒有投降式拋售的風險看來,該行相信,馬股不應該持續處疲態。

同時,該行認為,令吉或被市場低估,或將吸引外資重返我國市場,加上距離我國來屆大選不遠,都有助于提高馬股勢頭。

該行也說,馬股有望在明年取得4.5%國內生產總值(GDP)的扶持,以未來1年本益比15.3倍,估值顯得相對便宜。相比之下,泰國股市股值相對昂貴,而泰國明年國內生產總值預計僅成長3.2%。

針對各別領域,該行給予種植、能源、建築及油氣領域“增持”投資評級。

大眾投資研究解釋,原棕油價格和油棕樹鮮果串(FFB)產出成長樂觀,種植業盈利增長強勁,能源股盈利也具抗跌特質。同時,油氣領域工程將跟隨油價企穩,建築股也在近期的發展工程下受惠
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 17, 2016, 04:11:58 PM



Saturday, 17 December 2016
Mature bull close to its death?
BY TEE LIN SAY







 Foong: ‘Our market is clearly oversold and drifting in lacklustre style as it is lacking any major catalyst to turn around the incredibly bearish tide purposefully.’
Foong: ‘Our market is clearly oversold and drifting in lacklustre style as it is lacking any major catalyst to turn around the incredibly bearish tide purposefully.’
 
Despite all the worries, there is actually a lot of data showing that reality is better than conventionally presented

 

 
IN recent weeks, good news seem to be in short supply.

Worry and pessimism have clouded the heads of investors especially with presumed difficult times as a result of the Fed hike, Trump, Brexit, China and low oil prices.

It has been eight years since this bull market started and every year, investors continue to remain sceptical about the bull markets uptrend.


Here is the thing.

Despite the fears and negative calls, stocks have continued rising and the US economy continues to expand. The Dow Jones is up a cumulative 190% despite all the bad news out there.

So surely in its eighth year, this mature bull is close to its death?

Now this is not to say the ride ahead is going to be easy. But for those who believe it’s all gloom and doom, there is a lot of data out there that is showing that reality is better than conventionally presented.



First and foremost, let us look at the Consumer Confidence Index. While it has been rising, it is still showing bullishness that is far less that what it was during previous bull markets. (See chart)

“Bull markets don’t die of old age. They die either when walloped by an unforeseen factor that wipes out trillions in economic activity or in reality simply can’t meet the expectations of euphoric investors. Today, we don’t believe that either factor exists. Stocks move between the gap of expectations and reality,” says Fisher Investments presenter John Hulcher in his 2:48 minute video titled “The Joyless Bull Market”.

Hulcher says to consider Sir John Templeton’s adage.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.

“However, sentiment has evolved glacially during this bull market. Eight years in, skepticism still reigns. People continue to look for a repeat of the financial crisis in every nook and cranny, while this persistent skepticism allows for positive, albeit slow growth to beat expectations,” says Hulcher. He says that throughout 2016, numerous high-profile fears have been slowly dispelled:

1. High-yield bond markets calmed down and yield spreads narrowed.

2. People got over negative interest rates.

3. Oil prices stabilised, which should reduce energy’s drag on corporate earnings.

4. Brexit was supposed to trigger a UK recession, yet with time and data, it seems that the vote was a non-event.

5. Trump won the US Presidential elections, and markets have already moved on.

Hulcher says that eventually, the Fed will resume hiking interest rates, and this will gradually help investors get over their mistaken belief that this bull market is nothing but Fed-fuelled froth.

“Worries may dominate the headlines but this is normal for a bull market. Sensationalised headlines simply fuel the grinding skeptical nature of this joyless bull. Remember this as you read ‘Doom and Gloom’ warnings about rate hikes, Trump and all the rest. The real time to worry is when no one else does. Today is a time for patient optimism,” he concludes.

A better 2017 thanks to stronger data

MIDF Amanah Investment director of corporate investment banking Sherilyn Foong believes that 2017 is expected to be a better year for the local bourse, in view of possible snap elections being called amidst a likely strong technical rebound scenario that is long overdue after months of heavy foreign selling.

“Our market is clearly oversold and drifting in lacklustre style as it is lacking any major catalyst to turn around the incredibly bearish tide purposefully,” says Foong.

What is for certain is that fears of a recession abound.

Many economists have forecast that a contraction is around the corner. At some point, the world will get its recession. That is after all how capital markets operate. For now, though, based on available data out there, it is pointing towards more growth rather than a recession.

Here are some of the data to show that the economy is in fact chugging along just fine:

1. Yield curves are steepening worldwide

While the yield curve (the spread between long-term and short-term rates) flattened earlier this year, it never inverted. An inverted yield curve shows that long-term yields are less than shorter-term yields. This type of yield curve is considered to be a predictor of economic recession.

To the contrary, curves are steepening. What does this mean?

The yield curve determines loan profitability. Since banks are in the business of making money, a larger spread (long-term yields being higher than shorter-term yields) suggests this will increase the banks’ willingness to lend capital, which will then further stimulate the economy.

The misconception now is that because rising long rates are steepening the curve, many are thinking only like the consumer – they agonize over the impact of rising loan costs. What about the fact that banks will be more eager to lend when long rates are higher?

The yield spread is also in The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has been rising.

In LEI’s more than 50-year history, no US recession has started when it was high and rising like it is today. Similarly, LEIs in the eurozone and UK are trending higher.

The US LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017, says Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board, in a press release on Nov 18.

The interest rate spread and average weekly hours were the main drivers of October’s improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders, says the Conference Board.

“In LEI’s more than 50-year history, no US recession has started when it was high and rising like it is today. Similarly, LEIs in the eurozone and UK are trending higher,” says Fisher MarketMinder.



2. An improving PMI

The Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for the US and markets around the world are improving. The US Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs and the Global Composite PMI are at their highest levels for the year.

For the uninitiated, what exactly is the PMI and what does it represent?

They are monthly surveys aimed at capturing economic activity in a given sector, typically in manufacturing or services.

A PMI of more than 50 represents expansion of the manufacturing sector when compared to the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 represents a contraction, and a reading at 50 indicates no change. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) generates the PMI each month. Although the ISM publishes several indexes, the PMI is the most widely followed and is sometimes referred to as the ISM index.

In its latest reading, the seasonally adjusted US Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.2 in December 2016 from 54.1 in the previous month and in line with market expectations. It was the strongest reading since March 2015, as employment rose further and stocks of inputs accumulated at the fastest pace since the survey began in May 2007.

These numbers show that healthy orders are being put in, meaning demand is in fact growing. Orders put in today translates to production over the next few months.



3. GDP is growing solidly in much of the world

The US economy advanced an annualised 3.2% on quarter in the three months to September of 2016, up from 1.4% growth in the previous period and better than a 2.9% expansion in the advance estimate.

It is the highest growth rate in two years, as consumer spending, exports and investment in structures rose faster than anticipated while fixed investment fell more, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“Year-over-year growth in the third quarter (Q3) was 1.6% in the US, 1.7% in the eurozone, 2.3% in the UK, 0.9% in Japan, 2.6% in South Korea, 6.7% in China, 7.3% in India, 1.3% in Canada, 1.8% in Australia, and 2% in Mexico,” says Fisher MarketMinder.

“Really the only countries in the world not growing are those that are heavily oil-dependent or grossly mismanaged such as Brazil, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Nigeria and Norway,” it says
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on December 17, 2016, 05:11:47 PM
Wah...I think Dow going to 30000 lor.....no crash ady.....under Trump leadership...USA will be great again...
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: DR KIM on December 17, 2016, 06:16:12 PM
Wah...I think Dow going to 30000 lor.....no crash ady.....under Trump leadership...USA will be great again...

IT'S  golden opportunities now  ,  :thumbsup: :clap: :clap: :clap: :cash: :cash:

bursa still very  cheap  especially  cheap penny & warrant... :clap: :clap: :thumbsup:

very potential BIG  JACKPOT  100 - 300  %  in 2017  SUPER BULL

##  Don't blame me  didn't tell you ALL  ( especially  grandma  :heartbreak:OLY  )  !
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on December 17, 2016, 06:29:12 PM
Ringgit down...bursa shud pump higher lar....or else our share market getting cheaper and cheaper......hehe....
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 20, 2016, 02:39:18 PM



2016-12-20 13:08
看好亚太市场.贝莱德减码大马
时值美国政策仍未明朗之际,全球最大投资管理公司贝莱德(Blackrock)减码大马的投资,惟看好亚太中国、香港、日本、印度等国的投资。贝莱德的北亚区董事经理麦利宏说,减码大马,其一是因可以在区域内的中国、印度等市场找到更好的投资点。
时值美国政策仍未明朗之际,全球最大投资管理公司贝莱德(Blackrock)减码大马的投资,惟看好亚太中国、香港、日本、印度等国的投资。

广告

 
贝莱德的北亚区董事经理麦利宏说,减码大马,其一是因可以在区域内的中国、印度等市场找到更好的投资点。

他指出,大马的一些政策未明朗化,也是令其迟疑不前的原因。

贝莱德在固定收入投资“减码”马来西亚,在股市等投资“不喜”大马。

他日前在大马投资市场动向汇报会后受询问时表示,投资公司正等候大马有更广泛进取的结构改革,对消费税(GST)实施有更明确的动向。

他表示,消费税是拖住其投资大马的步伐,但不愿意进一步说明影响。

麦利宏说,目前人们对亚洲的投资情绪改善,主要是亚洲出口重获动力,尤其中国目前可从更稳定的政策环境受惠。

广告

 
“至于印度,则受惠于结构改革,成为区域成长最快速的市场。东南亚其他国家如印尼,外资涌进激活国内流动性,促成经济复苏、提振企业盈利。“贝莱德也对台湾与韩国的投资,保持谨慎。

大马投行零售与退休基金主管高级副总裁陈清良表示,很多资金大举移往更吸引力的亚太区,也是因这些投资地点更有多元投资产品及吸引力的回酬。

他说,美国总统改选后,马币见贬;人们对投资采观望态度,预计至明年首季尘埃落定之前,投资者可透过在北亚投资与素有研究的贝莱德,参与这些区域的成长。

他指出,如果依排序,中国、印度、印尼是投资行感兴趣的投资区域,中国进行股市改革开放后,吸引全球资金。改革后,房产投资可获可观回酬。

广告

大马投行与贝莱德在亚太的投资合作达10年,今年迄今之平均回报达8%,两方目前管理7亿5500万令吉亚太股市收入基金,放眼明年首季获10亿令吉投资。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧精明融资‧文:张启华‧2016.12.20
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 21, 2016, 12:01:08 PM



财经
今年IPO籌資額不到6億 寫金融風暴以來最低
 4403点阅   2016年12月20日
富馬隆綜指一年無起落,首發股籌資額跌谷底。
富馬隆綜指一年無起落,首發股籌資額跌谷底。
獨家報導:林慧蓮
(吉隆坡20日訊)馬股上市熱潮不再,首發股(IPO)總籌資額更逐年走低,今年僅籌得5億9662萬令吉,比較去年43億5050萬令吉總額大跌逾7倍,寫下2008/09年金融風暴以來最低!

儘管在全球經濟放緩之際,仍有不少公司喊話明年上市,但券商認為若市場條件不好,這些公司很可能會延后上市。



市道差難吸引新股

根據馬證交所資料,馬股新上市公司近年屢屢下跌,今年只有12家新上市公司,跌至2009年14家新上市數額的低水平。

截至12月20日,馬股主要板共有792家上市公司,創業板則有113家,共905家。

另有資料顯示,2007年馬股首發股籌資額達27億3000萬令吉,2008年則籌得12億9000萬令吉。換言之,今年首發股籌得的5億9662萬令吉,是2008年以來最低。

英特太平洋證券研究分析主管馮廷秀指出,富馬隆綜指迄今仍不到1650點,相比2015年12月31日閉市為1692.51點,說明今年馬股基本上幾無變動,表現讓人失望。

他告訴《中國報》,很少公司會在股市條件如此不利的情況下掛牌,且這種情況或許會延宕至明年上半。

JF Apex證券研究主管李忠正說,大型股一般會選擇市道佳的時候上市,主要吸引機構投資者,而小型股較有籌資發展的時間壓力,主要是吸引散戶投資者。

因此,今年市場雖不見好,卻還是有5家公司上市創業板,主要板則有6家新上市公司,另有一家為倒置收購上市的聯熹控股(RANHILL,5272,主要板貿服),其上市並不涉及首發股。

Dancomech獲眷顧股價翻近一倍

儘管馬股今年表現平平,但各家新公司在上市后都有不錯表現,Dancomech控股(Danco,5276,主要板貿服)自7月21日上市以來,短短5個月就上漲92%,翻近一倍。

截至9月底第3季,Dancomech控股營業額報1328萬令吉,其中1110萬令吉或83.5%來自本地市場;當季淨利報247萬令吉。Dancomech控股主要從事程序控制設備和測量儀器的買賣和分銷,銷售對象主要是原棕油和油脂化學品、油氣和石油化學品。

新上市公司中,表現不俗的還有柏昇(BISON,5275,主要板貿服)和Salutica公司(SALUTE,0183,創業板消費),兩股上市至今漲逾56%。

柏昇截至7月底第3季營業額報6512萬令吉,淨利406萬令吉;該公司最大收入來自食品和飲料,以及煙草,佔營業額的75.1%。

Salutica公司截至9月底第1季,營業額報7307萬令吉,淨利552萬令吉;當季營業額中的7060萬令吉來自藍芽耳機銷售。

目前10家透過首發股上市的公司中,有兩家公司股價倒退,即HSS工程(HSSEB,0185,創業板貿服)和BCM Alliance公司(BCMALL,0187,創業板貿服)。

PECCA籌資規模最大

另外,今年首發股最有看頭的非PECCA集團(PECCA,5271,主要板工業)莫屬,其股價自上市以來上升近12%,籌資規模更是一眾公司中最大的。

PECCA集團是馬股今年唯一上市籌資額超過1億令吉的公司,佔了今年首發股總籌資額約22%。

明年大牌公司多

李忠正認為,如果明年經濟狀況沒有惡化,一些已預告上市的大公司應能如期上市。但他亦認為,明年首發股表現將持平或僅稍微走高。

“如果明年經濟如同預測成長4%至5%,我想他們應該會上市。”

目前,本地預告明年上市的較大籌資規模公司有QSR品牌(約22億令吉)、綠盛世國際(20億令吉)、馬礦業(MMCCORP,2194,主要板貿服)港口業務(至少31億令吉)和一馬發展公司(1MDB)前子公司Edra能源(約17.7億令吉)。

2016年全球3大IPO
中國郵儲銀行九州鐵路上海銀行

不管市場好壞,中國這全球第2大經濟體總是給人出手闊綽的感覺;今年首發股規模前三甲,就有兩家來自中國。

今年9月赴港上市,獲馬雲、李嘉誠等入股的中國郵政儲蓄銀行,大規模籌資逾566億港元(約327億令吉),成為這2年間繼阿里巴巴集團(Alibaba)之后,全球最大首發股規模。

不過,該股上市一個月后就遭遇嚴重賣壓,跌破每股4.76港元(約2.75令吉)發行價,至今仍未收復失地。

今年全球第2大首發股來自日本;日本九州鐵路公司在10月上市,籌資4160億日圓(約158.2億令吉)。

全球第3大首發股為上海銀行,該銀行11月上市籌資近107億人民幣(約69億令吉),是中國今年最大宗首發股。

成全球最大IPO
沙地國家石油或取代阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴于2014年9月在美國紐約證交所上市,籌資250億美元(約1108億令吉),迄今仍是全球籌資規模最大的一次首發股活動。

值得一提的是,中通快遞今年10月選擇在紐交所上市,籌資14億美元(約62億令吉),成為美國今年最大首發股。

雖然還不知道明年全球首發股是否好于今年,但地球上另一個知名“土財主”沙地阿拉伯,已看好后年市場將回溫。

沙地阿拉伯國家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)已計劃在2018年上市,籌資1000億美元(約4430億令吉),為阿里巴巴上市籌資額的4倍。

20161221bs60-noresize

20161221bs61-noresize

Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 23, 2016, 06:50:04 AM



Top 2017 Picks for Asia's Emerging Markets
by Yumi Teso  and Y-Sing Liau
December 22, 2016, 4:00 AM GMT+8
December 22, 2016, 11:04 AM GMT+8
Mizuho likes rupee and rupiah, while most bearish on yuan, won
HSBC Global favors Indonesia’s local-currency sovereign bonds
 
Emerging Markets: Where to Find Opportunity
Bonds, currencies and stocks in Asian emerging markets that are less dependent on external demand, such as India and Indonesia, are the most popular picks for investors and strategists next year. South Korea is seen as a market to avoid on concern U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will harm global trade after he takes office next month.


Currencies:

Mizuho Bank Ltd.’s Tokyo-based emerging-markets trader Masakatsu Fukaya likes India’s rupee and Indonesia’s rupiah. “The best pick is India because of its good fundamentals, room for further rate cuts and higher yields, all of which are making good conditions to attract fund inflows,” he said. He is most bearish on China’s yuan and then South Korea’s won.
BNP Paribas SA recommends buying Indonesia’s rupiah because of the country’s higher yields and support from commodity-producing economy, Singapore-based head of currency and rate strategy for Asia Mirza Baig said at a briefing in Singapore earlier this month. Eastspring Investments said in a statement earlier this month that it also sees opportunities to invest in the rupiah and India’s rupee.
Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale SA said they are bearish on the won going into 2017. Currencies sensitive to Trump’s policies amid weakening risk sentiment are expected to underperform, SocGen said in its EM outlook 2017 note earlier this month. 
Credit Agricole CIB said it expects further depreciation in the yuan due to China’s “significant” balance-of-payments deficit, in a note dated Dec. 14. The lender forecasts the currency to end 2017 at 7.25 per dollar, more than 4 percent weaker than the current level.
Bonds:

HSBC Global Asset Management favors Indonesia’s local-currency sovereign bonds as they offer good value after the recent selloff, Binqi Liu, a money manager in London, said in an e-mail. “In an environment where there is lack of global demand, much uncertainty about the global trade dynamic and risk of slower Chinese growth, Indonesia is better positioned than its peers in Asia” Liu said.
Western Asset Management Co. favors the local bonds of India and Indonesia, while Indonesia is included in Morgan Stanley’s sovereign credit trade recommendation for 2017. Pioneer Investment Management is keeping “overweight” positions in India and Indonesian notes due to the two nations’ reform processes, improving growth and relatively high yields, Hakan Aksoy, London-based fund manager for emerging markets, said in an e-mail.
Global funds pumped $7.64 billion into Indonesian sovereign debt this year, while selling a net $6.84 billion of Indian securities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Stocks:

IG Asia favors Indonesian, Indian and Philippine equities. Amid subdued growth and an uncertain trade situation going into 2017, economies with strong domestic fundamentals appear to be “most promising,” said Jingyi Pan, a market strategist in Singapore. “Any dips close to 5,000 level would make for good entry” to the Jakarta Composite Index, she said. CLSA Ltd. and BNP Paribas also like Indian shares for 2017.
South Korea is among the markets IG Asia is bearish on due to slower growth and trade, and political uncertainties, Pan said.
Credit Suisse Group AG is positive on China, Korea and Indonesia on improving macroeconomic environments, balance sheets, valuations and underexposure of global funds
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 24, 2016, 07:49:04 AM



外围因素冲击 马股继续波动激烈
券商砍综指明年目标
197点看 2016年12月23日

(吉隆坡23日讯)诸多意外消息导致今年马股格外动荡,分析员预计,受到外围因素冲击,明年马股也将继续波动,并小幅下调明年杪综指目标到1750点,建议投资者采取抗跌投资策略。


马银行金英分析员认为,明年,外围政治和政策,是主要风险。其中,美国财政扩张计划提高了市场对通胀和增长的预期,可能促使美联储积极升息。

分析员说,美联储升息会进一步加剧美国和其他主要经济体的货币政策分歧。此外,明年欧洲多国的选举,也充斥着“反欧盟”风险。

提早大选改善情绪

另外,特朗普可能推行贸易保护主义和较不友好的外交政策,加上中国对这些政策的反应,可能进一步破坏增长,导致金融市场持续波动。

基于2018年综指盈利本益比为16倍,分析员下修明年杪综指目标,从1780点减至1750点。

不过,分析员认为,提早全国大选可能让综指加速达标。

“若我国提早举行大选,也可能改善情绪并刺激消费,让各领域受益。”

油盟减产利政府收入

尽管明年充满挑战,分析员说,其中也不乏一些利好消息,如石油输出国组织(OPEC)减产协议。

“若各产油国坚持承诺,这会支撑油价的高水平,并缓和我国政府的盈亏与令吉。”

分析员还说,抵马游客数量回扬,有助于推动国内目前因生活成本上扬而有所缓和的私人消费。且马中关系强稳也对贸易和投资有益。

此外,分析员指出,上市公司盈利走低的趋势似乎有所改善,显示出明年增长可能恢复。

不过,分析员提醒,若美国贸易保护政策导致中国增长大幅放缓,会对资本流动和令吉不利,并影响市场对中国在大马投资的预期。

另外,若产油国违背减产承诺,则会导致油价再次降低。


首选国能

在波动股市中,分析员建议,采取抗跌投资策略。同时,建议了建筑、旅游、中小型资本、大选、能反映美元、日元和油价走势,6大投资主题。

分析员认为,公用事业、产托、建筑、油气和航空属抗跌领域,给予“超越大市”评级。首选为国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服股),因为估值吸引、盈利稳定,且是市场领头羊。

产托展望好

此外,该分析员认为,产托增长展望良好,且市场谨慎投资也支撑产托表现。

洋灰和产业领域表现则“低于大市”,因为煤炭成本剧增抵消洋灰需求量回扬,产业领域销售风险和盈利差强人意。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 24, 2016, 03:52:49 PM



Edge Weekly
The chosen dozen for 2017
By Tan Choe Choe / theedgemarkets.com   | December 24, 2016 : 11:53 AM MYT   
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Translated by Google Translator:
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KUALA LUMPUR: The big 2-0-1-6 that will soon come to pass may be ushered out with a hearty 'good riddance' by many investors, as the equities mart have been nothing short of challenging to tame these last 12 months, even for the most seasoned guru.

But the upcoming 2-0-1-7 doesn't look like it will provide any less difficult a ride, as 'uncertainty' remains the buzzword.

At the very least -- aside from the risk of more aggressive US Federal Reserve rate hikes due to higher inflation and growth expectations at ole Uncle Sam's -- there are several world events, including upcoming elections in several European countries, that may see the anti-EU sentiment spreading further, what with the UK having gone with the Brexit.

Domestically, some also view more potential uncertainties are in the offing, if one were to take four little words -- "could come anytime soon" -- from Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak on the 14th GE at the recent Umno General Assembly, as hints that the big voting exercise may be just around the corner.

Regardless, not everything is in shades of grey and there are still bright spots one can look forward to next year, which is why several The Edge Malaysia writers have put together the 'Top 12 Stock Picks for 2017' for the publication's cover story for the week of Dec 26, 2016-Jan 1, 2017.

Having spoken to fund managers and research houses, the paper noted that plantation is one sector that is starting to look interesting again after the unexpected rebound in crude palm oil prices recently.

"According to Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew, this is a good time for CPO as prices tend to move up between November and March because of low output," the weekly wrote.

“Plantation is a long-term play. Look out for planters with young trees because that is where you will see growth in output,” Phillip Capital Management chief investment officer Ang Kok Heng was also quoted as saying.

The construction sector also continues to be worth watching, with more mega projects still to be implemented over the next two years, like the East Coast Rail Line, the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail, the RM30 billion Melaka Gateway trading port, the Gemas-Johor Baru double tracking and the remaining work for the mass rapid transit lines 2 and 3. But, margins may be slim, cautioned Etiqa Insurance and Takaful head of research, Chris Eng.

And the weak ringgit isn't all bad news to everyone. Export-oriented counters, for one, are seeing the weak local note making Malaysian goods more competitive, price-wise.

As for oil and gas -- the sector non grata for the past two years -- industry players may be bound for a reprieve with a rebalance of the demand and supply after the agreed production cut among oil producing nations and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

So, having said all that, what do the experts think are the best picks for the year, and the specific reasons why? Well, pick up a copy of The Edge Malaysia today to find out!
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 25, 2016, 02:29:06 PM



2016-12-23 17:09
潜伏6大风险.马股明年先蹲后跳
大马股市2017年潜伏6大风险,市场走势料先挫后扬,上下半年表现各走极端,分析员建议投资者掌握7大投资主题,从中寻觅获利机会。

(图:法新社)
(吉隆坡23日讯)大马股市2017年潜伏6大风险,市场走势料先挫后扬,上下半年表现各走极端,分析员建议投资者掌握7大投资主题,从中寻觅获利机会。

广告

 
联昌研究分析员认为,由于消费者开销持续走软冲击,马股明年上半年仍挑战严峻,直待下半年不明朗因素消弭后,才稳住脚步伺机而动。

该行预测马股综指明年杪目标,将落在预测本益比16倍的1820点水平。



上半年欲振乏力

联昌研究指出,马股2017年上半年仍严峻挑战,主要预期第14届全国大选前夕消费者开销成长持续疲弱,同时马币兑美元汇率今年至今已重挫4%,全球经济不确定利空,将负面冲击消费者情绪及外国投资,使马股欲振乏力。

联昌研究指出,马股于明年首半年的一些不确定因素,将在下半年获得厘清后改善下半年表现。

广告

 
联昌研究看好明年下半年的马股表现,因预期数项利好催化因素发酵,包括市场并购活动升温、商品价格走高(原油及棕油)改善经济及推动消费者开销、预料全国大选可能提前在今年次季或第三季举行推动潜在涨势、马币兑美元汇率料增值至4.10水平。

外资持股
不会跌至金融危机水平

该行指出,明年马股其他潜在利好,计有外国投资者已经过于减持马股,目前已写下4年新低水平。

预料外资持股不会重新跌至全球金融危机时约20%谷底水平,若是外资重返市场将有助推高马股价位。

广告

该行估计,若是外资重返至全球金融危机后的持股至略逾25%水平,这将意味着外资将在马股吸购介于400亿至500亿令吉的股票。

“明年马股主要潜伏6大风险,首推美国新总统特朗普上任后的美国政府政策变化、贸易保护主义、明年首季英国脱欧事件可能启动第50条文、3大经济国的货币政策紧缩、欧洲多国大选及大马举行闪电全国大选。”

回顾2016年的马股表现,如该行预料,马股在2016年经历诸多逆风,包括经济成长较低及不确定的外围环境。虽然2016比2015年较少动荡,不过逆风程度却较为强劲(如较弱的企业盈利、强劲的美元汇率及较为缓和经济成长等)。

2016年全球市场出现的意外惊吓,则是英国脱欧及特朗普当选为美国新任总统,使马股至今表现落后该行预测,并创下连续3年走跌纪录。

企业盈利料回弹10%

联昌将对马股综指2017年杪目标水平定在1820点,或等于本益比16倍水平,与3年移动平均水平一致。

“我们认为马股可达此水平,主要是市场大部份坏消息已经全面反映,特别是外国投资者持股偏低及连续3年下跌后反弹向上的机会较为浓厚。”

该行预料马股2017年的盈利成长将回弹约10%。

该行2017年首半年首选投资领域,分别为公用事业、建筑及小资本股。该行明年首半年较为谨慎,选择公用事业的抗跌性质盈利、建筑则潜在工程合约推介及在全国大选前颁发更多工程合约及即将推介的中小型资本研究计划下潜在受惠的小资本股项。

联昌研究2017年首选大资本股为公用事业领域的国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组),建筑领域则为怡保工程(IJM,3336,主板建筑组),至于种植及国民投资公司转型股项则为森那美(SIME,4197,主板贸服组)。

该行的3大首选小资本股分别为MYEG服务(MYEG,0138,主板贸服组)、康乐(KAREX,5247,主板消费品组)及文语控股(SASBADI,5252,主板消费品组)。



7主题掌握投资风向

联昌研究确认2017年的7大投资主题,包括:

一、美元汇率走强受惠者——胶手套及农基公司;

二、大型挹注资本领域及中国投资——建筑及基建;三

、高息股——公共事业及银行领域;

四、旅游业投资主题——航空及博彩领域;

五、政府相关公司转型——大财团;

六、中小型资本研究基金及计划——小资本股项;

七、第14届全国大选——政府相关公司。

●马币贬跌

今年至今,马币兑美元汇率贬跌4%,或比今年4月的3.87年度高峰重贬16%,这主要是美国总统选举及美国升息因素,激发新兴市场及货币下跌,这有利马股出口导向领域,包括胶手套、安全套、种植、半导体及木材公司等。同时,许多大马公司早在10至15年前已积极进军海外市场。

汽车航空饮食业重伤

至于马币汇率走贬的主要输家包括汽车、航空及饮食业领域,建筑商及公用事业也是受到一些负面影响,因为它们需要进口一些配件。

●建筑业忙碌的一年

预料2017年将是建筑领域忙碌的一年;在2017年及以后的大型工程计划总值达到2120亿令吉。同时配合全国大选,预料政府将颁发更多工程合约,总值料按年成长17%。

●小资本股基金及研究计划

政府在2017年财政预算案宣布设立30亿令吉的特别基金,以投资在中小型上市公司。

●旅游业

联昌研究预测2017年大马旅游业前景看俏;这主要是马币汇率贬跌有助吸引更多旅客到访大马。特别是政府大力推动大马旅游业、推出更多旅游新景点、加强航空联系及陆路交通系统、及通过访问东盟时推广大马旅游业等。

●全国大选

全国大选落在2018年8月或之前。市场预料政府很可能会在2017年举行大选,马股有望出现大选涨势。

●国民投资公司的转型计划

该公司将善用手中的现金,与其策略投资公司的管理层及董事部密切联系与合作,以为公司进一步扩大回酬及加值,从而推高有关上市的价值。

●高息股主题

市场预测国行将在2017年首半年里削减隔夜政策利率25个基点至2.75%以支持经济成长,这使马股的高息股更具有吸引力。



文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧报道:李文龙‧2016.12.23
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 27, 2016, 03:18:55 PM



Highlight
KLCI's earnings growth in 2017 set to be stronger than this year, says MIDF Research
By Anette Appaduray / theedgemarkets.com   | December 27, 2016 : 1:45 PM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 27): The FBM KLCI's earnings growth in 2017 may yet be stronger than what is seen so far in 2016, which increases the probability of the equity benchmark inching up from its current sideways performance, according to MIDF Research.

In its 2017 outlook report released today, the research house said the FBM KLCI's valuation is mostly cheaper relative to its regional peers.

"And its longer-term trend path is highly dependent on the expected earnings growth performance during the next 12 to 18 months.

"Therefore, premised on the rooted behaviour whereby earnings and price are trending broadly hand-in-hand, we reiterate our 2017 FBM KLCI target at 1,830 points which equates to PER17 of 17.1x," it said.

MIDF Research also listed a selection of 10 stocks that represent its top picks beginning with the preference of inherent earnings quality, an attractive valuation and growth at reasonable price.

Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (Buy rating with a target price (TP) of RM2.08)

Key catalysts for the company include their construction orderbook of RM1.5 billion providing 36-month construction backlog underpinned by 1.91x FY15 construction revenue cover. Secondly, the Development of Kwasa Damansara Plot C-8 worth RM3.08 billion, Kuala Lumpur Sports City valued at RM1.6 billion and Cyberjaya City Centre with a gross development value of RM9 billion and finally the potential sale of the Eastern Dispersal Link (EDL) highway for RM1.8 billion to unlock its balance sheet.

Tune Protect Group Bhd (Buy rating with TP of RM2.18)

MIDF Research is overweight on Tune Protect Group premised on the fact that the group has a first mover's advantage of digital insurance space and it will continuously grow within that parameter.

Tune has also predominant market share in local travel insurance and extends to establish new airline partnerships and venture beyond airline industry in the next two years. This will translate into positive significant fundamental impact, which the firm expects a sturdy FY17 estimated earnings growth and improvement in underwriting margin of 15% and 23% respectively.

On balance sheet, the group will stand on strong forecasted double-digit return on equity of 17% and a net cash position.

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) (Buy rating with TP of RM1.04)

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which measures charter rates across dry bulk ship sizes and routes, has recently surpassed the 1,200 level after averaging at 500 for the majority of 1HFY16.

The recent surge in the BDI can be attributed to a recent increase in coal and iron ore imports from China due to lower domestic production of these materials and a pick-up in demand for construction and power generation.

In addition, the prospects of the US embarking on infrastructure spending as part of its stimulus measures have also propped up sentiment on the industry.

The firm's 'buy' call on Maybulk with target price of RM1.04 is based on five-year average price-to-book ratio of 0.88x.

Deleum Bhd (Buy rating with TP of RM1.25)

Deleum is an oil and gas services specialist with undemanding valuation currently trading at forward price-earnings ratio (PER) of only 7x. The company's orderbook stands at approximately RM2.9 billion, providing earnings visibility of up to four years.

In addition, the company is a frontrunner for Petronas maintenance, construction and modification works worth approximately RM500 million for its portion.

The TP of RM1.25 is based on earnings per share (EPS17) of 12.5 sen pegged to PER17 of 10x. The firm's target PER17 is based on its five-year historical average rolling PER. At peak valuation, the stock traded at PERs in excess of 18x.

Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd (Buy rating with TP of RM3.05)

Key catalysts for the group are a construction orderbook of RM3 billion providing 36-month construction backlog or 3.5x construction revenue, a steady growth of 15% from operating income and an annual growth of 5 million from 3.3 million passengers (11% growth rate) for the three concession airports: Siem Reap, Sihanoukville and Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

AirAsia Bhd (Buy rating with TP of RM3.45)

MIDF Research said Airasia makes a re-entry into its top 10 picks after a recent share price correction which saw a 21% drop from its high of RM3.20 reached in August 2016 stemming from the ringgit losing ground against the greenback.

However, the research house said it was not too concerned about the falling ringgit as AirAsia's unhedged exposure to US dollar for its borrowings and expenses are capped at 33% and 50% respectively.

Meanwhile, AirAsia recently recorded a cumulative nine-month (9MFY16) load factor of 89% which was a group record. Looking ahead, the fourth quarter of 2016 will be even better as October–November loads have already hit 93%.

AirAsia highlighted that it has received eight non-binding bids for full ownership in Air Aviation Capital and one for an 80% stake.

MIDF Research said it is increasingly optimistic on the potential for special dividends as the deal draws nearer to a possible conclusion.

It said that a divestment of a 70% to 80% stake in AirAsia's leasing arm could translate into proceeds of RM2.9 billion to RM3.3 billion (RM1.04 to RM1.19 per share) which could be used to pare debts, fund future expansion and be paid out as special dividends.

Ta Ann Holdings Bhd (Buy rating with TP of RM4.70)

MIDF Research favours the company for its good set of earnings in 9MFY16 due to better-than-expected fruit bunch production, its strongest production growth among peers (+8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 9MFY16) and a better outlook for timber division due to recent strengthening of US dollar and Sarawak State Government's effort to promote timber products in Japan.

My E.G. Services Bhd (MyEG) (Buy rating with TP of RM2.84)

MIDF Research said MyEG has an attractive business model and strong cash-rich balance sheet. As at 1QFY17, it has a net cash position of RM49.7 million.

It is also enjoying an attractive profit margin of more than 50%.

The upcoming implementation of the customs tax projects would also reaffirm the group's revenue and earnings growth trajectory.

Our TP of RM2.84 is premised on FY18 EPS of 10.8 sen pegged to FY18 forward PER of 26.3x.

Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (Buy rating with TP of RM29.05)

Key positives about the company include its high exposure to palm oil business and good earnings growth of +33% y-o-y to RM1.05 billion in FY16, new capacities in the fatty acid business has started to contribute positively to the company, with FY16 EBIT for downstream division surging by 75% to RM323 million.

Bermaz Auto Bhd (Buy rating with TP of RM2.45)

MIDF Research said significant value has emerged after a 10% fall in share price since the market selldown post-US elections. Ex-cash, Bermaz Auto now trades at just 9x CY17 earnings.

The Japanese yen has actually weakened to RM3.80–RM3.90 levels and it was mainly the US dollar (which Bermaz Auto has no exposure to) that strengthened against the ringgit in the past month.

Key share price catalysts over the next 12 months include an attractive dividend yield of 7% (based on 85% payout ratio) underpinned by net cash which accounts for 12% of market capitalisation and a solid 9% free cash flow to equity yield (FY17F)
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 27, 2016, 03:20:31 PM



Fund managers bullish on emerging markets, ratings agencies less keen
By Reuters / Reuters   | December 27, 2016 : 2:47 PM MYT   
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NEW YORK (Dec 27): A number of global fund managers say they are buying emerging market assets for 2017 after the beating the sector has taken since the US election in November, even though credit rating agencies have a less positive outlook.

Since the election of Donald Trump as US president, emerging market stocks are down nearly 7.0%, based on the Morgan Stanley Capital Index, and the yield spread of emerging market bonds over benchmark US Treasuries is wider by 10 basis points, reversing some of the gains seen earlier in the year.

On Nov 8, the date of the US election, the EMBI Global year-to-date total return was 14.04%, and a week later, on Nov 14, it had halved to 7.60%.

Currencies such as Mexican peso and the Turkish lira have tumbled 10% or more in the wake of the election.

US President-elect Trump has pledged to impose protectionist trade policies and restrict immigration which would likely damage most emerging market economies.

The Washington, D.C. bank lobbying group, the Institute for International Finance, reported this week that US$23 billion has flowed out of emerging market funds since Oct 4, with US$18 billion of that taking flight since Nov 9.

"The magnitude of outflows has diminished significantly in recent weeks, but the direction has remained persistently negative," said Scott Farnham, an IIF research analyst.

FUND MANAGERS POSITIVE

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager is expecting to reap solid gains from all emerging market asset classes, especially bonds, the firm's chief fixed income strategist, Jeff Rosenberg said at the company's recent global outlook summit.

Other global fund managers also see a rebound on the horizon.

Ricardo Adrogué, head of emerging markets debt at Baring Asset Management Ltd, said analysts, including ratings agencies, are confusing structural versus cyclical problems when evaluating the sector.

"Our assessment of emerging markets is actually strengthening at the time that developed market institutional framework is weakening," he said.

Similarly, Michel Del Buono, head of portfolio strategy at Makena Capital Management LLC, who oversees US$18 billion across asset classes, also has a bullish outlook.

"If you're exposed in the right way and you have a long-term perspective you should keep a significant weighting to emerging markets," he said.

Del Buono said he favors investments in things like healthcare, retail and for-profit education in places like Nigeria, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates.

If prices keep dropping, Del Buono and Adrogué said they would keep adding to their positions, echoing what other investors told Reuters.

Morgan Harting, lead portfolio manager for multi-asset income strategies at AllianceBernstein said he is especially bullish on the energy sector and is investing in countries like Russia and Brazil as well as companies like Hungarian oil and gas group, Mol Group.

"As we get more economic data to validate that the underlying fundamentals in these economies continues to firm then people are going to get more aggressive in investing in emerging markets," Harting said.

CREDIT RATING AGENCIES LESS CONFIDENT

However, credit ratings agencies S&P Global, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have recently lowered positive credit outlooks and written even more negative outlooks for emerging markets. Moody's even highlighted the risk of capital flight and potential weakness in the banking sector.

Diane Vazza, managing director of global fixed income research at S&P Global ratings agency, noted worries about geopolitical risk and energy companies not being able to adjust to a longer-term trend of lower prices for oil and gas.

"About a third of (emerging market) corporates have negative outlooks," Vazza told Reuters. "So we expect additional downward pressure across emerging markets."
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 28, 2016, 06:45:31 AM



Tuesday, 27 December 2016 | MYT 10:30 AM
MIDF: Foreign funds sell RM481.7m Malaysian equity






 
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian equity foreign fund flow turned negative again last week. The positive net foreign fund flow of the prior week, its first since before the US election in November, was regrettably short-lived, according to MIDF Equities Research.

“The net amount sold by foreigners on Bursa last week was RM481.7mil compared to the prior week’s net purchase of RM44mil. Nevertheless, as stated earlier, the negative foreign fund flow last week was equally prevalent in many other Asian equity markets,” MIDF said in its weekly report.

The research house said foreign investors have been selling off their investments throughout the whole week on net daily basis. The highest attrition was on Friday of -RM163.4mil and the lowest was on Tuesday of -RM18.3mil.

On a cumulative year-to-date, the amount of net selling by foreigners this year has expanded further to RM3bil. However, compared to last year, the outflow amount is still relatively low vis-à-vis -RM19.5bil net outflow in 2015.

It said retail investors gross participation rate continued to expand to RM392.6mil from RM378.5mil in the prior week. This is in-line with the higher buying on dips conviction which surged to RM84.9mil from RM14.1mil during the prior week.

On the other hand, MIDF said the institutional investors gross participation rate fell to RM1,667.0mil from RM1,925.7mil in the prior week.

MIDF said Petronas Gas Bhd registered the highest net money inflow of RM21.73mil last week. Accordingly, its share price outperformed the broader market recording a slight 0.19% gain as the FBM KLCI dropped by 1.26% during the week under review. In related news, its parent company Petronas expands into Iran with recent signing of MOUs on two oilfields with the National Iranian Oil Company.

Tenaga Nasional Bhd recorded the second highest net money inflow of RM18.38mil while Sime Darby Bhd saw the third highest net money inflow of RM14.17mil.

Public Bank Bhd saw the largest net money outflow of RM11.21mil last week. Nonetheless, its stock price outperformed in spite of a -0.61% loss vis-à-vis the FBM KLCI which declined by a larger 1.26% during the review week
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on December 29, 2016, 08:09:45 PM



财经  2016年12月29日 | 记者:胡雪樺
创3年连跌纪录 IPO市场吹冷风

(吉隆坡29日讯)2016年多只黑天鹅降临,让疲软不已的全球市场雪上加霜,全球的首次公开售股(IPO)市场也受到影响,包括我国的IPO市场吹起一阵冷风,今年的IPO宗数虽没有大跌但集资额却明显减少,而且创下连跌3年的记录!

2016年晋入尾声,马股周四(29日)迎来本年度最后一家IPO——创柏(FPGROUP,5277,主板工业股),將全年新上市公司宗数推高至12家,但仍略低于比去年的13家。

同时,由于缺乏大型公司上市集资,大马交易所今年IPO公司的集资总额按年急挫84.58%,至8亿2529万令吉,相比去年的53亿5037万令吉。

今年新上市的12家公司,其中7家在主板上市,剩余的5家在创业板上市。针对以上现象,大眾投行研究主管庄永仁解释,今年之所以缺乏大型IPO,归咎于市场游资严重流失。他补充,由于美国收益率料偏高,造成外资纷纷撤离,回流美国市场。


此外,大马发展公司(1MDB)丑闻和政府摇摆不定的政策亦重挫投资者信心。

「基于投资者情绪尚未回稳,加上宏观经济不太明朗,2017年对欲展开IPO活动的企业而言,仍十分艰鉅。」

今年,英国脱欧、川普(又译特朗普)意外胜出美国大选和意大利修宪公投失败等黑天鹅,均使全球金融市场蒙上一层阴霾,导致外资严重流出新兴市场。

实际上,作为衡量大马股市表现的富时大马综合指数也已连续两年按年呈跌。在企业盈利毫无改善的情况下,市场人士认为,综指难以在最后几个交易日扭转颓势,所以將写下3年连跌的纪录。

展望未来,安联星展研究主管程宏扬表示,外围因素將继续左右出口导向的大马经济前景。假设全球贸易活动急跌,將对大马带来严重衝击。

明年料摆脱颓势

无论如何,隨著市场人士普遍预期明年全球经济將改善,我国许多大型企业也纷纷传出在明年上市的消息,包括MMC机构(MMCCORP,2194,主板贸服股)旗下的港口业务、QSR品牌控股、绿盛世国际(EWI)、依海控股(IWH)和Edra环球能源,预计將引领大马IPO市场摆脱3年的颓势。

当中,MMC机构旗下港口业务计划通过IPO活动集资7亿5000万令吉,而今年10月宣布將上市计划展延至明年的绿盛世国际,则將筹资5亿令吉,作为海外项目发展用途。

目前,已获证券监督委员会(SC)批准上市的公司有HLT Global公司、马登控股、绿盛世国际和Serba Dinamik控股。HLT Global和马登控股將分別在明年1月10日及17日上市。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 03, 2017, 06:31:53 AM



Monday, 2 January 2017
Cautious outlook for equity market in 2017
BY INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL







  A slow 2016 does not bode well for prospects of local bourse this year.
A slow 2016 does not bode well for prospects of local bourse this year.
 
PETALING JAYA: The equity capital market (ECM) saw one of its slowest years in 2016, with no major initial public offerings (IPO) taking place. This, in turn, could suggest a cloudy outlook for 2017.

In 2016, the value of the top 10 ECM deals stood at US$2.2bil (RM9.87bil). This was down 42% from the top 10 deals made in 2015, which carried a value of some US$3.8bil (RM17bil), according to data by Maybank IB Research.

Share sales in 2016 were dominated by private placement exercises by a few heavyweights such as Sime Darby Bhd, IHH Healthcare Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB).

These issuances picked up the slack from the IPO dry spell last year.

Sime Darby’s private placement topped the list of top 10 ECM deals for 2016. The conglomerate raised US$517.7mil (RM2.5bil). In second place was utility giant TNB’s US$289mil placement while banking group Malaysia Building Society Bhd followed with a US$257.8mil rights issue.

Nonetheless, a seasoned banker reckoned that equity fundraising in 2016 turned out to be surprisingly good considering how volatile markets were and the several “black swan events” that took place, such as Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

“Given the backdrop of difficult market conditions and foreign fund outflows, this year’s equity-raising activity in Malaysia was relatively healthy,” he said.

In fact, when compared with the rest of Asean, Malaysia ranked second after Singapore in terms of value of top 10 deals made last year.

The value of Singapore’s top 10 deals last year stood at US$3.2bil and this was led by two major IPOs, namely that of Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trusts and Manulife US Reit.

Meanwhile the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia recorded less than US$2bil worth of ECM deals respectively.

The volatility and weak sentiment in the equity markets in 2016 resulted in both investors and companies shying away from investing and raising money.

The FBM KLCI closed 2016 with a 3.5% drop, marking a third consecutive year of decline.

A market observer explained that there was a mismatch in the market, with investors expecting lower values and issuers not wanting to discount their offerings too much.

“Investors have been spoiled for choice as many companies’ share prices trade at undemanding valuations.

“In comparison, new issuances usually demanding higher valuations.

“So many company owners didnt’ find it compelling to raise money in this soft market as they could not fetch valuations they could have got say two years ago,” the market observer said.

For IPOs alone, last year saw RM1bil raised from 11 listings on on Bursa Malaysia, the lowest figure since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. The figure is a far cry from the RM4.7bil and RM4.1bil raised in 2015 and 2014, respectively.

The impact of the softer market has also seen IPOs being priced at lower earnings multiples as compared to two years ago.

Notably, some of the IPOs that took place in 2016 were priced at single-digit earnings multiples, a rare occurrence in previous bullish markets. Dancomech Holdings Bhd, which listed last July and the upcoming listing of Rhone Ma Holdings Bhd are examples of companies listing at single digit price earnings multiples.

However, one investment banker points out that there is a healthy IPO pipeline in the next couple of years and that this would lift ECM activities. “The market has priced in the negativity. At least for now there is more certainty and this in turn could result in the backlog of IPOs coming to the market,” a banker says.

The listing of Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd, which is raising some RM600mil for its planned floatation on Feb 8, 2017, will be a watershed deal for IPOs.

That’s because it would end the 2016 dearth of major IPOs. This would be more so if EcoWorld International Bhd (EWI) joined the fray.

EWI is the overseas real estate unit of the Eco World development group and is looking to raise RM2bil from its planned 2017 listing.

The IPO pipeline in 2017 in Malaysia is in line with expectations of a rebound in IPO activities in Asia-Pacific.

According to Reuters, ECM activity in Asia-Pacific dropped in 2016 as weak IPO performance curbed demand for new listings in the region and listed companies slashed secondary offerings because of volatile markets. It said the US$207.4bil of equity offerings were the lowest since the US$159bill raised in 2013.

But while more major IPOs are in the pipeline for 2017, the question remains if there is appetite from investors for such offerings.

Consider this: some of the major listings of 2015 (there were no major listings in 2016) currently trade below their IPO prices.

This in turn could be a reason why investors are shying away from participating in major IPOs. This includes Malakoff Bhd which closed at RM1.38 on Dec 30, 2016, which was 24% below its IPO price of RM1.80.

Meanwhile, in terms of merger and acquisitions (M&As), the top 10 deals in 2016 amounted to US$7.9bil, lower than US$10bil in 2015. “M&As would be the theme for 2017 especially with the continuous volatility in the market and much needed consolidation in the steel and oil and gas industries,” said one corporate banker
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 07, 2017, 04:19:26 PM



Saturday, 7 January 2017
What is obvious is obviously wrong
BY M. SHANMUGAM







 Contra reaction: When there is an over-riding tide of pessimism, the stock market reacts the opposite way. Similarly, the stock market tends to under-perform when there is an abundance of optimism. – Bernamapic
Contra reaction: When there is an over-riding tide of pessimism, the stock market reacts the opposite way. Similarly, the stock market tends to under-perform when there is an abundance of optimism. – Bernamapic
 
The alternative view
THE stock market tends to react in opposing tangents.

When there is an over-riding tide of pessimism, the stock market reacts the opposite way. Similarly, the stock market tends to under-perform when there is an abundance of optimism.

This year the general mood of fund managers and investors is no different than previous years. There is an over-riding mood of pessimism.

The biggest fears are that the ringgit will weaken further and the underlying economy may not improve very much compared to last year.



ADVERTISEMENT
The fears are not totally unfounded.

Although we are tipped to grow at about 4.1% this year, for a small economy such as Malaysia, it is not good enough. Nobody dares dream about 8% growth. But a growth of more than 5.5% will translate into a greater degree of vibrancy and consumer spending at the ground level.

As for the ringgit, as long as foreigners are selling their bond holdings, converting the ringgit to US dollars and taking the money out, the domestic currency will continue to be under pressure. At the moment, foreigners own about 48% of Malaysian Government Securities, which is seeing a sell-down despite offering pretty decent yields of more than 4%.

Both – a subdued economic growth and possibility of a ringgit depreciation – will affect corporate earnings, consumer sentiments and hence the pessimistic outlook of the stock market.

However the stock market technical indicators are all pointing up – indicating a bullish trend ahead in the next few months. The stock market tends to move six months ahead of the real market. Put simply, the stock market is saying that while there are dark clouds, it is not likely to last long.

In May last year, this column delved into a “dead cross” formation building up on Bursa Malaysia. In stock market language, what this means is that there is a bear market in the offing for Bursa Malaysia. It is opposed to a “golden cross”, where the indicators point to a bull market.

True enough, corporate earnings were bad last year and sentiments got worse as the year drifted away. Oil price went below US$30 per barrel before it improved. Political developments overseas such as Britain’s exit from the European Union and Donald Trump’s unexpected win in the US presidential election had a major impact on the capital markets.

Trump’s victory has certainly caused upheaval in the capital markets due to his economic and trade policies. The bond market’s 30-year bull run has finally ended on expectations that Trump would embark on an expansionary fiscal policy and cut taxes.

This would lead to people having more money in their hands, causing the US to experience higher inflation rate in the coming months. So far it has prompted the Federal Reserve to signal that it could embark on a faster than expected series of interest rate hikes.

This has caused investors to liquidate their investments in the bond market and an across-the-board weakening of the major currencies against the US dollar.

Malaysia is not alone in seeing its currency depreciate against the US dollar. So are most currencies in the world. Some have speculated that the ringgit could be about RM4.70 to the US dollar while there is a view of the domectic currency improving to RM4.10 by year-end.

The ringgit could move either way because the US dollar is on a bull run.

However there are mitigating factors that points to an improvement in Malaysia’s underlying economy.

Oil is likely to average at a higher band of about US$60 per barrel this year. This should augur well towards increasing government revenue. Commodities such as palm oil are also on the rise. This should help stabilise and improve Malaysia’s trade balance.

As far as the banking system is concerned, there have not been any shocks to the system so far. The worst is probably over for oil and gas companies. The existing defaults of oil and gas companies have not caused systemic risk to the financial system so far.

As for the property market, it has slowed down considerably but the most affected products are high-end condominiums. This involves a small segment of property buyers who are already well-off financially, which explains why there is no large scale fire-sales.

The demand for landed property is still strong while as far as condominiums are concerned, products below RM500,000 are seeing strong sales. The bottom line is property developers are facing tough times but they are still launching and selling houses.

This year is also likely to be an election year. The man on the street can expect more goodies to overcome the higher cost of living.

As in all election years, the sentiments on the capital markets tend to improve in the run up towards the general elections. The longer-term trend of the stock market would depend on the outcome of the elections.

Bursa Malaysia has been under-performing for three years in a row. The economy has also not seen any significant growth in the last two years. The ringgit is seen to be weakest among regional currencies.

Obviously, the mood is filled with pessimism. However there are many instances where what is obvious is obviously wrong. The markets could just prove the pessimism wrong this time.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on January 07, 2017, 04:26:23 PM
Kong makai?! So confusing geh..... :D

We standby fun to eat ady....... Matang! Eat big big!  :P


Saturday, 7 January 2017
What is obvious is obviously wrong
BY M. SHANMUGAM







 Contra reaction: When there is an over-riding tide of pessimism, the stock market reacts the opposite way. Similarly, the stock market tends to under-perform when there is an abundance of optimism. – Bernamapic
Contra reaction: When there is an over-riding tide of pessimism, the stock market reacts the opposite way. Similarly, the stock market tends to under-perform when there is an abundance of optimism. – Bernamapic
 
The alternative view
THE stock market tends to react in opposing tangents.

When there is an over-riding tide of pessimism, the stock market reacts the opposite way. Similarly, the stock market tends to under-perform when there is an abundance of optimism.

This year the general mood of fund managers and investors is no different than previous years. There is an over-riding mood of pessimism.

The biggest fears are that the ringgit will weaken further and the underlying economy may not improve very much compared to last year.



ADVERTISEMENT
The fears are not totally unfounded.

Although we are tipped to grow at about 4.1% this year, for a small economy such as Malaysia, it is not good enough. Nobody dares dream about 8% growth. But a growth of more than 5.5% will translate into a greater degree of vibrancy and consumer spending at the ground level.

As for the ringgit, as long as foreigners are selling their bond holdings, converting the ringgit to US dollars and taking the money out, the domestic currency will continue to be under pressure. At the moment, foreigners own about 48% of Malaysian Government Securities, which is seeing a sell-down despite offering pretty decent yields of more than 4%.

Both – a subdued economic growth and possibility of a ringgit depreciation – will affect corporate earnings, consumer sentiments and hence the pessimistic outlook of the stock market.

However the stock market technical indicators are all pointing up – indicating a bullish trend ahead in the next few months. The stock market tends to move six months ahead of the real market. Put simply, the stock market is saying that while there are dark clouds, it is not likely to last long.

In May last year, this column delved into a “dead cross” formation building up on Bursa Malaysia. In stock market language, what this means is that there is a bear market in the offing for Bursa Malaysia. It is opposed to a “golden cross”, where the indicators point to a bull market.

True enough, corporate earnings were bad last year and sentiments got worse as the year drifted away. Oil price went below US$30 per barrel before it improved. Political developments overseas such as Britain’s exit from the European Union and Donald Trump’s unexpected win in the US presidential election had a major impact on the capital markets.

Trump’s victory has certainly caused upheaval in the capital markets due to his economic and trade policies. The bond market’s 30-year bull run has finally ended on expectations that Trump would embark on an expansionary fiscal policy and cut taxes.

This would lead to people having more money in their hands, causing the US to experience higher inflation rate in the coming months. So far it has prompted the Federal Reserve to signal that it could embark on a faster than expected series of interest rate hikes.

This has caused investors to liquidate their investments in the bond market and an across-the-board weakening of the major currencies against the US dollar.

Malaysia is not alone in seeing its currency depreciate against the US dollar. So are most currencies in the world. Some have speculated that the ringgit could be about RM4.70 to the US dollar while there is a view of the domectic currency improving to RM4.10 by year-end.

The ringgit could move either way because the US dollar is on a bull run.

However there are mitigating factors that points to an improvement in Malaysia’s underlying economy.

Oil is likely to average at a higher band of about US$60 per barrel this year. This should augur well towards increasing government revenue. Commodities such as palm oil are also on the rise. This should help stabilise and improve Malaysia’s trade balance.

As far as the banking system is concerned, there have not been any shocks to the system so far. The worst is probably over for oil and gas companies. The existing defaults of oil and gas companies have not caused systemic risk to the financial system so far.

As for the property market, it has slowed down considerably but the most affected products are high-end condominiums. This involves a small segment of property buyers who are already well-off financially, which explains why there is no large scale fire-sales.

The demand for landed property is still strong while as far as condominiums are concerned, products below RM500,000 are seeing strong sales. The bottom line is property developers are facing tough times but they are still launching and selling houses.

This year is also likely to be an election year. The man on the street can expect more goodies to overcome the higher cost of living.

As in all election years, the sentiments on the capital markets tend to improve in the run up towards the general elections. The longer-term trend of the stock market would depend on the outcome of the elections.

Bursa Malaysia has been under-performing for three years in a row. The economy has also not seen any significant growth in the last two years. The ringgit is seen to be weakest among regional currencies.

Obviously, the mood is filled with pessimism. However there are many instances where what is obvious is obviously wrong. The markets could just prove the pessimism wrong this time.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ikan besar on January 07, 2017, 04:38:11 PM
Kong makai?! So confusing geh..... :D

We standby fun to eat ady....... Matang! Eat big big!  :P

Matang is Batang
Batang is Matang
Matang is Batang
and Batang is Matang

ada confuse or not

nevermind , GE14 lui $$$$$$$$$$$$$ lai leow

remember uncle Leong Tong Mali  mau celebrate Tong Tong Chiang
huat tua chai huat tua chai
dengar pun Huat tua chai

chai shen tau
chai shen tau
Chai shen tau wor chia men kor

 :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 07, 2017, 04:54:21 PM



Edge Weekly
A better year for exports
By Surin Murugiah / theedgemarkets.com   | January 7, 2017 : 9:41 AM MYT   
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 7): This year should have been much better for exporters, coming from a sluggish 2016, which is expected to see exports grow only 0.5% year on year, according to the latest edition of the Edge weekly.

In its cover story, the Edge’s Ben Shane Lim wrote that the ringgit continues to flirt with new record lows, briefly surpassing the psychological 4.50 level against the US dollar last week.

Even though other emerging market currencies have depreciated as well, the ringgit continues to be one of the worst performers against the US dollar, giving Malaysian exporters a competitive advantage, said the magazine.

Meanwhile, it said the US economic growth forecasts have risen to bullish levels that have not been seen during the global financial crisis in 2008.

In fact, growth estimates for global gross domestic product have been revised upwards although China and Europe’s GDP growth are expected to moderate slightly, said the Edge.

The weekly pointed out that in its most recent Global Economic report, HSBC upgraded its global growth forecast from 2.3% to 2.5%. It estimates that global GDP expanded 2.2% last year. The bottom line is that external demand should, at the very least, remain intact this year.

It said stronger commodity prices, particularly crude oil and crude palm oil, will also lend support to export numbers this year.

On top of that, domestic-focused stocks are expected to face more volatility as the 14th general election is expected to be held this year.

Put together, these factors should result in a robust year for exporters as well as the corresponding stocks.

“Malaysia’s exports grew at a relatively muted 0.5% y-o-y in 2016. But this year, we are forecasting it to grow 2%,” the Edge quoted an economist at RHB Research as saying.

However, the magazine said his forecast is relatively conservative.

It said the consensus estimate for export growth this year is 2.8% and the latest export numbers do give some hope for a rebound.

The weekly said data for November released last Friday shows continued signs of recovery for exports. During the month, exports rose 7.79% y-o-y to RM72.83 billion, the quickest pace in 2016. More importantly, the recovery in gross exports was not driven by stronger commodity prices alone. Electrical and electronic (E&E) exports rose 13.2% y-o-y to RM26.2 billion. Note that E&E exports, comprising semiconductors primarily, make up 35.9% of total exports.

That said, higher commodity prices also gave gross exports a boost during the month. Exports of palm oil and palm-based products rose 24.3% y-o-y to RM6.6 billion, due primarily to higher average unit prices, said the weekly
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 08, 2017, 07:09:36 PM



Saturday, 7 January 2017
Five hot stocks ahead of elections
BY LEONG HUNG YEE







 Potential stocks: Companies perceived to have strong political affiliations may come into play in the run up to the elections.
Potential stocks: Companies perceived to have strong political affiliations may come into play in the run up to the elections.
 
FGV is top of the list of favoured stocks that would benefit from the run up to the general election

LAST year, politics dominated the capital markets in the US and Europe. This year, politics is likely to be one of the major themes for Bursa Malaysia. This is on the grounds of growing expectations that the general election could be held before the due date of mid-2018.

Companies perceived to have strong political affiliations such as Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), Media Prime Bhd, Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd, KUB Malaysia Bhd and Destini Bhd may come into play in the run up to the elections. Except for Destini, which is majority owned by Datuk Rozabil Abdul Rahman, the other companies are in someway or other linked to politics.

In the past, companies that were owned by individuals and land lucrative construction contracts used to be “tagged” as politically linked.

Among them were the likes such as Renong Bhd, Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd and United Engineers (M) Bhd. However, government-linked funds such as Khazanah Nasional and government-linked investment funds have taken over these companies in the aftermath of the 1998 financial crisis. For instance, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) is the major shareholder of MRCB, which is managed by Tan Sri Mohamed Salim Fateh Din, who is the second largest shareholder.

In 2005, the government announced a massive programme to rejuvenate the government-linked companies and it was headed by Khazanah. Since then, the number of beneficiaries from general election, deemed as “election stocks” has diminished.

“Since 2004 general election, there are very few stocks that can be seen as potential beneficiaries ahead of the general election,” says an analyst.

Analysts, however, believes that based on historical trends, there are trading opportunities in a pre-general election rally.

“The relationship between politics and the stock market is a bit complex but positively reinforcing,” an analyst says.

Below we look at five stocks that are seen as beneficiaries in the run up to the general election because of the political undertones linked to the counters.

Felda Global Ventures Bhd

The world’s largest crude palm oil producer, Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd (FGV), has always been perceived as an important political cog to the government.

The reason being FGV is synonymous with settlers in the rural areas which are the stronghold of Umno and Barisan Nasional.

It has been reported that as many as 54 parliamentary constituencies are dominated by Felda settlers and are strongholds of Barisan Nasional, thus making FGV an important company to the government.



In May 2012, the Prime Minister announced that 112,635 settler families would be getting a windfall of RM1.689bil, or RM15,000 for each family.

FGV is facing problem with its matured lands and aging palm trees that see the company’s profits drop and the fact that the share price has yet to regain any of its listing lustre.

FGV’s initial public offering (IPO) in 2012 was the second largest in the world after Facebook and was timed just before the 13th general election in May 2013. Since its listing, FGV shares have fallen more than 60% to RM1.68 from its IPO reference price of RM4.55.

And most recently, the EPF has ceased to be a shareholder of FGV. There were also some issues with the company’s corporate governance practices.

Nonetheless, the group’s new chief executive officer Datuk Zakaria Arshad had said that the worst days for its palm oil business were over, and that the group was looking to lower its cost.

Zakaria said the group’s strategy would revolve around three main thrusts – business rationalisation to make the organisation leaner, drive for operational excellence and selective external growth – all to be executed under uncompromising governance and transparency standards.

In 2015, FGV proposed to acquire a block in Eagle High Plantations from Indonesia’s Rajawali Group. However, when Zakaria took over the helm of FGV, he stated clearly that FGV would not proceed with the deal.

In the latest development, Tan Sri Shahrir Samad, a seasoned politician, has been appointed as chairman of the Federal Land Development Authority (Felda), which is the major shareholder of FGV. He replaces Tan Sri Isa Samad, who remains chairman of FGV.


Utusan Melayu (M) Bhd

Currently, political parties and politicians hold few direct stakes in Utusan Melayu, which is 49.77% owned by Umno.

Historically, the Umno directly-owned newspaper publisher has saw its share price shot up during the run up to the election.

In 2013, Utusan share price went up by 8.54% to 63.5 sen on May 3, the last trading day before polling day on May 5. Post-election, its shares shot up to 75 sen, up 18% between May 3 and May 22, 2013.



Utusan’s status as a penny stock, too, could make it a prime target for speculators and market punters. Its share price closed at 41 sen yesterday.

In the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2016, Utusan posted a net loss of RM17.57mil, or 15.87 sen loss per share on revenue of RM57.87mil.

Based on past trends, general elections would boost advertisement expenditure of media companies.

“When there is a general election, there is always an increase in circulation, readership and viewership,” an analyst says.

Even though Utusan is making losses, it is likely to be a subject of investor interest as many hold the view that the shareholders would not allow the company to go down.


Media Prima Bhd

It easily dominates the free-to-air television segment of the media industry and certain to be a beneficiary of general election.

Media Prima controls several television networks, newspapers and radio stations and has politically linked shareholders. The EPF has a 13.22% stake in Media Prima while Amanah Raya Bhd has 11.09%.

In 2013, the media company saw its share price went up post-election. Its share price rose 11.8% to RM1.99 a day after the election and subsequently, rose to RM2.44 on May 28, 2013.



The run-up, however, did not last. Although its share price has come down substantially, Media Prima remains attractive with its relatively high dividend yield of about 9%. Media Prima was last traded at RM1.02.

Media Prima slipped into the red in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2016. The company posted a net loss of RM109.35mil on revenue of RM316.76mil.

However, considering its dominance in the free-to-air media segment, it would certainly gain because of the increase demand for advertisements.


KUB Malaysia Bhd

A diversified government-linked company, KUB is one stock that has remained range bound in its trading during the past general election. Its shares rose 11.3% to 39.5 sen a day after polling in 2013 but has remained subdued since then.

KUB may be better known as a bumiputra-controlled co-operative known as Koperasi Usaha Bersatu Malaysia Bhd. Back in the day, it engineered the reverse takeover of Permodalan Perak Bhd and subsequently listed on Bursa Malaysia in 1997 as KUB.

It is now 29.62% owned by Gaya Edisi Sdn Bhd and 22.52% by the Finance Ministry.




The company underwent massive kitchen-sinking and restructuring exercise last year. It is focusing on strengthening and expanding its three core businesses of energy, plantations and information and communications technology.

KUB used to be a favoured proxy in the run up to the general election in the past. However, its allure has diminished in recent years.


Destini Bhd

The company, which is involved in a wide range of activities from defence contracts to manufactuturing of rail equipment and provision of services for the oil and gas industry, is viewed as having links with Umno.

The largest shareholder is Datuk Rozabil Abdul Rahman with a 24.18% stake while the second-largest shareholder is Aromas Teraju Sdn Bhd, a company owned by the Ministry of Finance Inc.The company generally depends on contracts from the government in relation to the defence industry. It also provides aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services.

It has also branched out into the oil and gas sector via the acquisition of Samudra Oil Services Sdn Bhd from Kejuruteraan Samudra Timur Bhd.



In June last year, Destini made a breakthrough in the provision of maintenance and repair works for the rail industry. Its subsidiary secured a RM62mil contract from the Transport Minstry to design, manufacture, supply, delivery, testing and commissioning of a new motor trolley and a new road rail vehicle for Keretapi Tanah Melayu Bhd.

Rozabil had said that leveraging on the group’s expertise in the aviation and marine sector, the group had set its sights on the rail sector and would be bidding for more maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO) works in the rail sector.

Last month, Destini secured a contract extension to provide MRO services and the supply of safety and survival-related equipment for the Royal Malaysian Air Force for RM98.2mil.

Destini was last traded at 66.5 sen.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 10, 2017, 06:38:45 AM



Monday, 9 January 2017 | MYT 8:57 PM
PNB expects Bursa Malaysia to stabilise this year






 Wahid says earnings of Malaysian corporates are expected to improve this year.
Wahid says earnings of Malaysian corporates are expected to improve this year.
 
KUALA LUMPUR: Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) foresees Bursa Malaysia stabilising in 2017 as earnings of Malaysian corporates are set to improve, said group chairman Tan Sri Abdul Wahid Omar.

“Earnings of Malaysian corporates are expected to improve this year and likewise the overall valuation is hopefully better.

“The returns of stocks in the local bourse were challenging in 2016 as it was the third consecutive year to end with negative returns of -3.0%,” he told reporters after AmBank Group’s appointment as an agent to distribute Amanah Saham Nasional Bhd (ASNB) products in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.

On PNB’s overseas investments, Abdul Wahid said, it accounted for just 2% of its total portfolio.

“At the right time, it will increase but the bulk of the investments will still be in Malaysia,” he said.

On Monday AmBank Group became the eighth official agent to distribute products under ASNB, a subsidiary of PNB.

Its group chairman, Tan Sri Azman Hashim, said the bank’s customers and the public could subscribe to ASNB’s fund units at any AmBank branches and its distribution channels.

“This marks our first collaboration with ASNB and we hope to have more collaborations in the future with PNB and ASNB,” he said.

With AmBank Group’s 175 branches, PNB would be extending its reach through over 2,200 ASNB agent branches nationwide. - Bernama
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 12, 2017, 06:51:47 AM



财经  2017年01月11日 | 记者:林嘉灯
2017佈局种植建筑 国能成心头好

告別了黑天鹅乱飞的2016年,迎来了仍有许多变数的2017年。

分析员认为,虽然外围的不明朗情绪將造成市场的动盪,但是,原產品价格重新走高,而大选跫音接近都是让人对新一年重满新希望的乐观因素。

在这样的局势中,应该如何部署投资?分析员普遍看好建筑及种植股,而过去多年来一直受到分析员厚爱的电力股--国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服股),今年仍是多名分析员的心头好。

2016下半年,英国脱欧(6月24日)和特朗普当选美国总统(11月9日),两个意外的结果,让市场惊慌失措,富时大马综合指数在缺乏正面指引下,创下连续第3年下跌的新纪录。


虽然去年马股动盪较小,为127点,但全年仍下滑50.78点或3%,收报在1641.73点。在区域股市仅次於中国上证股市的差劲表现。

分析员皆认为,综指经歷新一轮跌势后,估值已较其他区域股市便宜。

在迎接新的一年,部份分析员认为,今年不明朗因素將包围马股,来自於外围政治选情不明朗將加剧市场动盪、中国经济放缓、美国加息政策和国內低迷的消费情绪將持续,因此,建议投资者採取较保守的投资策略。

值得一提的是,分析员预期,国內第14届大选或將在今年举行,料提振国內建筑股和媒体股表现,並改善消费情绪,对马股表现有正面影响。

关注商品美元走势

其他利好因素包括原產品价格包括树胶和棕油价格上涨、外资连续3年大暴走后料將放缓撤资步伐以及美元强势,都是今年可参考的投资方向。

综合分析员的看法后发现,得出蓝筹股依然是分析员的心头好。国家能源、金务大(GAMUDA,5398,主板建筑股)和森那美(SIME,4197,主板贸服股)都分別出现在各家投行的心水股名单。

它们的共同点为盈利前景备受看好、有正面消息带动股价和估值被低估。

《东方財经》统计后发现,国家能源、金务大和森那美在过去1年的股价表现均超越综指。

截至1月3日止,国家能源股价涨幅达6.33%、金务大和森那美也分別上扬9.61%和13.69%。

建筑股看涨 金务大最亮眼

建筑股是去年少数跑贏马股的领域,全年共涨3.9%,为全场表现最好的领域。今年市场的焦点仍集中在建筑股。分析员表示,国內大选和中国投资国內基建设施的加持下,料建筑股良好表现將可以持续。

分析员指出,建筑股將延续去年的涨势,因为2017年將有更多大型铁路发展项目合约颁发。

而金务大则是眾望所归,凭藉其发展国內捷运建设的经验,料为新一轮铁路建设合约的潜在贏家。

联昌国际投行分析员指出,在第11大马计划下,將有总值达2120亿令吉的建筑项目,而其中高达82%与铁路建设有关。同时,该分析员也认为,大选因素也將刺激建筑合约的颁发,料按年成长17%,至1410亿令吉。预期金务大是总值400亿令吉捷运第3路线的有力竞爭者。

与此同时,马银行投行分析员表示,大型基建设施包括捷运第2路线、轻快铁第3路线、泛婆罗洲大道的工程陆续在今年颁发外,中国倡导的「一带一路」下的东海岸大道和潜在隆新高铁项目都是刺激建筑股的催化剂。

该分析员的首选股是金务大,主要看好它在建设铁路的经验有助於获得更多大型铁路工程。

分析员认为,金务大的盈利將隨著捷运第2路线展开有所改善,出售雪河水供公司(SPLASH)也將是带动起股价的利好因素。

大眾投行分析员表示,隨著捷运第2路线和泛婆罗洲大道等大型基建项目的展开,將改善建筑业的盈利能见度,因此,將建筑领域的评级调高为「超越大市」。

怡保工程同乐

该分析员认为,目前国內建筑股的估值合理,预期国內的基建工程將如火如荼展开,金务大和怡保工程(IJM,3336,主板建筑股)將是最大的受惠者。

因此將金务大的评级调高至「超越大市」,目標价为5.20令吉。

马银行投行分析员认同,金务大认列捷运第2路线的建筑工程收入和大道特许经营权的贡献提高,將抵消房產收入减少。

而僵持许久的雪河水供公司(SPLASH)股权脱售进展,分析员认为,一旦完成出售活动,料改善金务大的债务,因此,该分析员给予该股「买进」投资评级和目標价5.55令吉。

3优势加持 分析员喊买国能

国家能源是各家投行的「心水股」並不是什么新鲜事,其盈利能见度高、良好派息和估值便宜是获选的主因。

联昌国际投行分析员指出,国家能源的估值是它们所追踪的大型能源股中最便宜的股项、优渥的週息率达4%、集团积极拓展海外市场和建立新发电厂,都是支撑其盈利成长的利好因素。因此给予该股「买进」投资评级和16.80令吉的目標价。

与此同时,大眾投行分析员和MIDF研究分析员纷纷看好该公司在成本转嫁机制(ICPT)实施后將加强其盈利能见度。在煤炭成本上涨后政府允许业者转嫁成本给消费者。另外,能源需求的增长,也是市场看好国家能源的主要原因。

另外,MIDF研究分析员也认为,国家能源解决和內陆税收局20亿令吉的纠纷后,利好效应將反映在也是未来12个月股价表现。

MIDF分析员给予该股「买进」投资评级和16.80令吉的目標价;而大眾投行则给予该股「超越大市」投资评级和16.16令吉的目標价。

2大利好提振 森那美看高一线

今年的另一投资亮点是种植股,分析员认为,种植股有利好因素带动,包括美元强势、棕油库存进一步减少、美国调高採用生物柴油比例和鲜果串成长。

MIDF研究分析员表示,「厄尔尼诺」气候影响棕油库存减少料持续至今年首季,预期棕油库存將跌破150万公吨。

而美国对生物柴油需求將隨著政府规定今年达到192亿8000万加仑而有所提高,都是分析员看好原棕油价格上扬的因素。该分析员调高今年原棕油平均价格至每公吨2725令吉,並维持该领域正面评级。

森那美是大部份分析员推崇的种植股。他们看好森那美受惠於棕油需求上升將带动原棕油价格外,也考量该公司將旗下业务分拆上市將提振股价表现。

大眾投行分析员也预期,森那美种植和汽车业务的贡献增加將改善盈利表现。

他们认为,中国需求增加和库存吃紧,预期原棕油价格在上半年將上探至每公吨2800至3000令吉。同时给予该股「跑贏大市」评级,目標价为9.30令吉。

联昌国际分析员也认同,森那美通过分拆上市,原棕油价格將上涨將带动股价表现。

另外,分析员认为它的股价还有上涨空间,因此,给予该股「增持」投资评级和目標价9.43令吉
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 13, 2017, 06:02:22 PM





How I grew my capital from 30k to 3 million in 10 years from Bursa Malaysia

Author: ILoveDividend   |   Publish Date: 12 Jan 2017, 2:40 PM



While many like to share how success they are, I would like to start my sharing with my worst experience in my 10 years investment journey. I started my investment life (actually it was a trading life) in 2007 during the market peak just before the crisis 2008.

I was born from a poor family and grew up from a small village and I know nothing about stock until I graduated from university and found my first job.

My first job was a software engineer and my manager was a very successfully business man. He is the man who opened my eye to stock trading world. It was a fantastic experience at the beginning and he claimed that we made more than 1 million from stock trading when he was studying in university. When the time he became my manager, he was a very successfully investor and business man.

I followed his guideline and start trading in Bursa Malaysia in 2007. The market was so active and hot during that time and we could see there are few counters jump more than 10% almost every day. Indeed, it was really fun.

I started my stock trading with just 15k and this was basically all the money I had and the money in my saving account was just nice enough to cover my life expenses. In Chinese word, I “sai lang” all my money into stock market. This wasn’t the worst part, I love my family very much and I thought I was very smart and found the key to success in stock market. Therefore, I asked my family to join me and borrowed another 15k from my father so my capital increased to 30k during the peak.

The tragedy started when the market crash in 2008. My major holding was Parkson during the crisis and my entry price was about RM8. I cut all my holding around RM4 and I suffered for 50% loss.



(Note: The stock price above was adjusted by dividend and other entitlement news.)

Source: http://www.~/Stock-Chart.aspx?securitycode=5657

 

What happened after the crisis?

My family’s capital that invested to me suffered for 50% loss.
My own capital 30k (my own money 15k plus the 15k I borrowed from my dad) suffered for 50% loss.
I have absolutely no idea how should I face and explain this to my family during the tragedy. No one will listen to you when you lose 50% of people’s hard earn money. During this bad day, only 2 persons who never blame me and still supporting me until now and they are my mother and my girl friend (now she has become my wife).

Lesson learned:

I will never help other to invest again except for my parent as I still wish I can help them to grow their money.
Cut loss is very important.
Never borrow money to invest.
One should start and learn the stock investment with small capital as it is most likely you will burn your money before you can earn money from stock investment.
 

When I looked back now, I am glad that I started with a small capital and I’m happy that I am still survivingJ.

Stayed tune for my next chapter – how I recovered all my losses.

Check out my blog for update - http://www.~/Blog/Blogger.aspx?bid=1

 



Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on January 13, 2017, 06:22:07 PM
Why lar tell this story now???!!! This story keep for camping time in the jungle only tell ma!!!!! More kancheong and scary than Bigfoot tale!!!!!!

I need a smore now....n some marshmallow to Bbb over campfire...while waiting for chapter 2..... :P





How I grew my capital from 30k to 3 million in 10 years from Bursa Malaysia

Author: ILoveDividend   |   Publish Date: 12 Jan 2017, 2:40 PM



While many like to share how success they are, I would like to start my sharing with my worst experience in my 10 years investment journey. I started my investment life (actually it was a trading life) in 2007 during the market peak just before the crisis 2008.

I was born from a poor family and grew up from a small village and I know nothing about stock until I graduated from university and found my first job.

My first job was a software engineer and my manager was a very successfully business man. He is the man who opened my eye to stock trading world. It was a fantastic experience at the beginning and he claimed that we made more than 1 million from stock trading when he was studying in university. When the time he became my manager, he was a very successfully investor and business man.

I followed his guideline and start trading in Bursa Malaysia in 2007. The market was so active and hot during that time and we could see there are few counters jump more than 10% almost every day. Indeed, it was really fun.

I started my stock trading with just 15k and this was basically all the money I had and the money in my saving account was just nice enough to cover my life expenses. In Chinese word, I “sai lang” all my money into stock market. This wasn’t the worst part, I love my family very much and I thought I was very smart and found the key to success in stock market. Therefore, I asked my family to join me and borrowed another 15k from my father so my capital increased to 30k during the peak.

The tragedy started when the market crash in 2008. My major holding was Parkson during the crisis and my entry price was about RM8. I cut all my holding around RM4 and I suffered for 50% loss.



(Note: The stock price above was adjusted by dividend and other entitlement news.)

Source: http://www.~/Stock-Chart.aspx?securitycode=5657

 

What happened after the crisis?

My family’s capital that invested to me suffered for 50% loss.
My own capital 30k (my own money 15k plus the 15k I borrowed from my dad) suffered for 50% loss.
I have absolutely no idea how should I face and explain this to my family during the tragedy. No one will listen to you when you lose 50% of people’s hard earn money. During this bad day, only 2 persons who never blame me and still supporting me until now and they are my mother and my girl friend (now she has become my wife).

Lesson learned:

I will never help other to invest again except for my parent as I still wish I can help them to grow their money.
Cut loss is very important.
Never borrow money to invest.
One should start and learn the stock investment with small capital as it is most likely you will burn your money before you can earn money from stock investment.
 

When I looked back now, I am glad that I started with a small capital and I’m happy that I am still survivingJ.

Stayed tune for my next chapter – how I recovered all my losses.

Check out my blog for update - http://www.~/Blog/Blogger.aspx?bid=1

 





Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 16, 2017, 06:38:43 PM



2017-01-16 17:19
邓普顿:估值不贵.低马币引外资买马股
富兰克林邓普顿投资(Franklin Templeton Investments)董事经理兼首席投资员史蒂芬多佛认为,马币兑美元连年贬值,已为外资投资马股开启机会之窗。

(图:星洲网)
(吉隆坡16日讯)富兰克林邓普顿投资(Franklin Templeton Investments)董事经理兼首席投资员史蒂芬多佛认为,马币兑美元连年贬值,已为外资投资马股开启机会之窗。

广告

 
他在媒体汇报会上表示,马币兑美元走势震荡,但这主要是市场并未反映大马经济稳健增长的基本面,以及投资者过度忧虑美国升息,甚至是大马经济高度仰赖原产品感到忧心。

“我认为外资并不了解情况,大马对原产品的依赖已大减,跨太平洋伙伴合作协议(TPPA)的取消纵然会对大马贸易带来负面影响,但市场却放大特朗普贸易政策潜在带来的负面贸易冲击,而忽略了大马稳健的内需表现。”

不过,史蒂芬多佛认为,市场可能很快对特定国家转念,因此单以货币角度来看,这已为外资提供进场的机会。

“以2007年1月至2016年12月数据来看,马股现有股价账面值为1.6倍,低于历史平均的2.1倍,甚至是标准差负1的1.8倍,总体估值并不昂贵,这为外资提供入市的机会。”

大马应对金融危机能力更好

他解释,近期机构投资者开始对新兴东盟市场感到兴趣,而大马也名列其中,虽然大马在新兴市场指数的比重不断减少,但大马在应对金融危机的能力和经验比其他新兴市场更好。



奶茶风暴 Chatime收回大马代理权

广告

 
“与其他新兴市场相比,大马是更成熟的市场。”

另一方面,史蒂芬多佛认为,外资过度“减码”新兴市场资产,现仅占投资组合的5至11%比重,相信市场对新兴市场资产的风险胃纳已经改善,未来料不会进一步减码。

“目前,外资投资新兴市场的趋势已开始出现逆转迹象,加上新兴市场盈利增长比发达市场为强,但估值却相对较低,而盈利进一步增长将再拉低估值水平,我相信这时投资者将开始入场。”

更重要的是,新兴市场已不再是高度仰赖出口和原产品的市场。他说,原产品在2008年占新兴市场指数比重近半,但现已减少至15%,重要性开始遭科技和消费类股取代,情况已大为不同。

广告

看好新兴市场中小资本股潜力

其中,史蒂芬多佛特别看好新兴市场中小资本股潜力,他认为,新兴市场股市往往由大资本股主导,并未充份反映中小资本股潜能。

“以震荡和风险程度来看,过去10年小资本股表现都好过大资本股,同时新兴市场中小资本指数在过去3年平均回酬达21%,跑赢新兴市场指数的13%。”

以长期来看,富兰克林邓普顿投资看好新兴市场消费类股,主要考量区域人口增长2%,以及区域经济开始朝内需转型。

贬势已大
美升息不打击新兴货币

市场憧憬联邦储备局今年将加快升息脚步,拖累新兴市场货币贬势不止,史蒂芬多佛认为,美国利率政策与新兴市场货币走势传统关联性不大,加上新兴市场货币贬势已大,将大大抑制货币进一步走贬风险。

“传统上,高通膨引起的升息动作,会导致货币贬值,但如果美国因经济走好升息,这理应对新兴市场也有好处,因此我并不认为美国升息将伤及新兴市场。”

他补充,美国公开市场委员会(FOMC)在过去也曾高估升息进程,因此除非通膨显著升温,否则升息脚步料不会过于激进。

“新兴市场已为美国升息前景所苦,货币水平已贬至风暴水平,但大马等国家并未陷入风暴,在良好基本面支撑下,未来货币进一步走贬风险较低。”

他认为,过去几年市场剧烈震荡,主要是经济未有独靠货币政策支撑的先例,但随着未来经济政策将从货币转向财政拉动,相信这将大大降低市场的震荡。

贸易“自由”转“公平”
特朗普政策更亲商

询及美国候任总统特朗普上台对新兴市场打击,他认为,特朗普的政策很明显的不一致,但不代表一定会对市场带来负面冲击。

他说,特朗普内阁成员累积商业经验超过300年,比奥巴马政府的18年来得高,显示出政策将更为亲商,而其贸易政策将从“自由”转向“公平”贸易为主,因此可能对中国或墨西哥等高贸易赤字的国家祭出贸易壁垒。

“同时,税制改革将使得公司变得更有效率,同时现有税制对进口商更为有利,税制改革也将推动出口,促进经济增长。”

他解释,监管政策松绑也有利银行向中小企业放贷,以及基础建设的投放,这都将拉动美国经济增长。如果美国经济加快增长,这是大马等新兴市场何尝不是件好事。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2017.01.16
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 20, 2017, 06:56:36 AM



财经  2017年01月19日
企业盈利落后 外资不青睞马股

(吉隆坡19日讯)步入2017年,隨著全球通胀升温和经济升温,渣打银行財富部投资和產品管理主管詹尊兴指出,这將有利于股票市场表现;不过,在「再通胀」的环境中,投资者更倾向于追求盈利成长,但大马股市的企业盈利成长落后其他市场,如美国、印度和印尼。

詹尊兴表示,马股虽然抗跌性强,並提供较高的週息率,可是马股的企业盈利表现却落后其他市场,特別是「再通胀」的环境,投资者將倾向于追求盈利成长。

他解释说,富时大马综合指数是由银行和公共实业领域主导,而这些大型股的盈利成长有限,因此与其他国家的股市相比,基金经理认为,大马的综指缺乏吸引力,所以较为不受青睞。

他在今天出席渣打银行主办的2017年全球投资展望匯报会后,向媒体如此表示。


其他出席者,包括渣打银行大马財富部门主管兼董事经理帕拉末,以及渣打银行固定收益、外匯和原產品投资策略主管曼彼特。

大选或引发动盪

针对外资如何看待大马第14届全国大选对股市的影响时,詹尊兴认为,大选將带来更多的动盪,但大选因素不是投资者关注的重点。

在过往並没有確实的数据证明,在大选前后,外资是否积极加码或减持马股。

另外,曼彼特在匯报会上指出,在全球通胀升温和经济成长带动下,全球股市在今年的展望较乐观。而美国和日本是他较看好的市场。

美股后市看好

「在预期公司盈利復甦带动下,我更看好美国股市的发展。」

他表示,特朗普当选总统有利于该国的经济表现,包括他降低企业税和带动当地製造业復甦的政策,都是支撑美国企业盈利成长的主因。

另一方面,展望令吉匯率,曼彼特表示,外围因素仍將主导令吉匯率走势,预估令吉兑美元匯率在年底將处于4.4令吉兑1美元。

「不过,若美国通胀水平上涨超过预期,料將导致令吉匯率进一步受压。」

他不排除美联储局將调高加息预期,从2次调高至3或4次,进而导致外资流出新兴市场。

油价方面,曼彼特预期在供给差距收窄,今年国际油价料將稳步上扬至每桶60至65美元之间,这將有利于大马经济。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 21, 2017, 03:09:46 PM



2017-01-21 09:27
周转率VS波动性·马股机不可失
外围地缘政治的不明朗因素料导致大马股市短期走势横摆,投资者要如何取得回酬?分析员在评估股票周转率(流动性)和股价波动性后,认为本地股市仍充满投资机会,可从市场走势、国内外新闻消息中攫取回酬和保住组合价值。
(吉隆坡20日讯)外围地缘政治的不明朗因素料导致大马股市短期走势横摆,投资者要如何取得回酬?分析员在评估股票周转率(流动性)和股价波动性后,认为本地股市仍充满投资机会,可从市场走势、国内外新闻消息中攫取回酬和保住组合价值。

广告

MIDF研究表示,特朗普当选美国总统、英国脱欧和中国经济转型,为市场投下了巨大变数。外围风险主宰了马币动向、出口需求和进口商品的成本。最快要到第二季,外围因素才有望进一步明朗。

企业盈利成长具挑战

同时,近期内市场表现平平,不适宜采取买进和守住策略。企业盈利成长短期面对挑战,上市公司可能暂缓派发慷慨股息,以等待直至今年后期局势明朗化。

由于投资组合回酬面对挑战,MIDF建议根据两大衡量标准来采取短线交易策略。其一是周转率(Velocity):即股票成交值对市值比率,以衡量股票流动性。其二是波动性(Volatility):即股价走势的波动性。

4象限

MIDF以2016年11和12月上市公司的周转率和波动性,设定4个象限做出交易策略。



Chatime收回代理权 大马公司报警

广告

象限1:低周转率+高波动性=机会主义者

此象限是指低交投但股价高度波动的股项,这包括柏威年产业信托(PAVREIT,5212,主板产业投资信托组)、马星集团(MAHSING,8583,主板产业组)、怡保种植(IJMPLNT,2216,主板种植组)、睦兴旺工程(MUHIBAH,5703,主板建筑组)和吉运速递(GDEX,0078,主板贸服组)。

上述股项都适宜纳入组合中,但由于流动性偏低,投资者必须监测市场走势,等候买进时机。一个例子是不理性的沽售者寻求快速出场,以低价售股,这时就是最佳买进机会。

象限2:低周转率+低波动性=买进和守住

广告

在此象限内的股价成交量和股价波动偏低,这包括数码网络(DIGI,6947,主板基建计划组)、雀巢(NESTLE,4707,主板消费品组)、发马(PHARMA,7081,主板贸服组)和IOI集团(IOICORP,1961,主板种植组)。

MIDF建议买进和守住这类股项,包括派高股息、强劲策略股东和成长潜能的公司。低周转率可能由于股权集中和低公开流通量,因此一旦市场悲观和疲软,将带来增持的机会,同时也具有抗跌性质。

象限3:高周转率+低波动性=子弹

此象限的股项包括国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板贸服组)、顶级手套(TOPGLOV,7113,主板工业产品组)、TUNE保障(TUNEPRO,5230,主板金融组)和世霸龙控股(SUPERLN,7235,主板工业产品组)。

MID建议使此此象限的股项为“子弹”或资金以执行“机会主义者”的交易策略,即可售出前一象限的股票以取得资金来收购后一个象限的股票,反之亦然,由于具较高周转率和低股价波动性,投资者仍能以较合理价格买回有关股项。

象限4:高周转率+高波动性=短线交易

此象限的股项交投炽热和股价大幅波动,包括亚洲航空(AIRASIA,5099,主板贸服组)、MYEG服务(MYEG,0138,主板贸服组)和亚航X(AAX,5238,主板贸服组)。

MIDF建议采取短线交易策略,因具流动性和消息不断出炉,因此提供了高卖低买的交易机会,以在综指表现平平之际取得回酬。

文章来源:
星洲日报·财经·报道:李勇坚·2017.01.20
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 24, 2017, 08:51:17 AM



外汇储备续萎缩
外资恐再卖政府债券
263点看 2017年1月23日
(吉隆坡23日讯)外汇储备持续萎缩,经济学家指出,将谨慎关注外资接下来对手上所持大马政府债券(MGS)期满后的部署。

马银行投行经济学家指出,我国外汇储备在1月上半月持续减少,可能推动外资持续撤离国内债券市场。


“目前关键在于外资在大马政府债券期满后的动向。”

大马政府债券将于今年2月15日到期,总值88亿令吉;另外3月15日还有一批总值105亿令吉政府债券到期。”

因此该经济学家关注,外资是否在债券期满,赎回投资资金后,把再投资在国内债券市场,还是把资金调回国内。

国家银行早前宣布,我国截至1月13日的外汇储备小幅滑落3亿美元,或0.3%,报943亿美元,相等于是4229亿令吉,足以应付8.7个月的进口,和1.3倍的短期外债。

回顾12月31日,当时,外汇储备企于946亿美元,相等于4242亿令吉,不仅比半个月前的964亿美元少1.87%,也比去年杪的953亿美元低。

 

海外资金或回流

经济学家认为,外汇储备减少,也反映出外资流出。

“外资也在大马债券市场,去年12月净卖出高达54亿令吉,而在11月为净卖出199亿令吉。”

他补充,虽然马股的外资,从上个月净卖10亿令吉,转为本月至今净买4亿令吉;但在债券市场内的外资行为,未必与马股步伐一致。

不过该经济学家认为,官联投资机构的脱售资产活动,料提升外汇储备表现。

“国民投资机构计划脱售本地和区域内的资产,而国库控股也在近期,将在去年1月12日入股的旅游搜寻网站Skyscanner,以17.5亿美元(亿令吉)脱售给上海网络经营者Ctrip.com。”

虽然两者没有说明,脱售活动所得的资金是否用于再投资或回流至我国。

但马银行投行经济学家预测,若该些公司选择后者,将扶持我国外汇储备、岸内外汇市场游资表现,及令吉汇率表现。



农历新年后交投看涨

虽然外资在马股于上周转为净卖,外资本周会否重回到我国市场仍有待观察,但分析员预测,农历新年后市场表现料提升。

MIDF研究分析员指出,基于市场资金流动,预计马股农历新年后,成交表现料提升。

根据该行分析报告,续两周净买我国股市后,外资在上周转为净卖出1亿4300万令吉,但
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 25, 2017, 07:11:07 AM



Election speculation, digital economy 'major catalysts' for Malaysian markets this year
Posted on 25 January 2017 - 05:40am
Eva Yeong
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
KUALA LUMPUR: The big catalysts for the Malaysian markets this year are the expectations of an election and the digital economy, Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd senior associate director and head of retail research Datuk Dr Mohd Nazri Khan Adam Khan said yesterday.

“2017 is going to be a very important year. The perception among investors is that there might be election this year. That we leave it to the government to decide but I think looking at what we call the Barisan-linked stocks, there are big chances that we might see an election play. This is likely to be a great catalyst for the wealth effect in Malaysia,” he said at the 19th Malaysia Strategic Outlook Conference 2017.

Nazri Khan said most investors are expecting a general election in the second half of this year and, if it happens, it will be a big catalyst, especially for stock market investment, to create a positive wealth effect for the economy in Malaysia.

“One more is digital economy, which has come at the right time. Although not towards the US but more on China. I expect a lot of Chinese giant tech companies to come here to boost Malaysia’s internet economy, especially with Jack Ma as adviser to the government,” he added.

Although details on a digital free zone are scant, Nazri Khan believes that it will attract digital entrepreneurs to Malaysia.

On whether Malaysia will survive “Trumponomics”, which includes big spending on infrastructure in the US and deregulation in the finance sector, Nazri Khan said this will have some impact on Malaysia’s trade and investment policy.

“Initially there might be a lot of uncertainties, for example, dismantling of open trade, but I’m sure it is not game over for Malaysia. I believe there might be bilateral trade negotiations between Malaysia and the US and we need to capitalise on that,” he said, adding that Islamic finance is an area that can be developed further bilaterially.

“We are awaiting more details on his policies. We see a lot of rhetorics but we don’t see much on policy details. Largely we know there will be huge infrastructure spending, deregulation. Of course, we will see a lot of tax cuts given to multinationals to bring back dollars to the US,” he added.

His year-end target for the FBM KLCI is 1,760 points while the ringgit is expected to trade at around 4.10 against the US dollar.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ongchef on January 25, 2017, 07:17:17 AM
 :D :D :D...........time to wake up early and morlingku morlingku until $ONG!!! :thumbsup: :clap: :clap: :clap: :cash: :cash: :cash:



 :D :D :D
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 26, 2017, 06:48:29 AM



Biggest investment risk is having no risk at all: Eastspring
Posted on 26 January 2017 - 05:37am
Ee Ann Nee
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
KUALA LUMPUR: The biggest investment risk for 2017 is having no risk in your portfolio, according to Eastspring Investments.

Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Ltd global strategist Robert Rountree said the move to higher risk started in early 2016 and the “jog to risk” turned into a “rush to risk” by year-end, and this move towards more risk and equities seems set to accelerate into 2017.

He said the wide yield gap is finally working in equities’ favour and equities look attractive vis-a-vis bonds.

“The huge switch for the last four to five years from bonds to equities is starting,” he told a press conference after presenting the 2017 market outlook here yesterday.

“There’s still a good story for bonds but it’s at the higher end (more risks). Whether you like it or not, you’re forced to taking on more risks, so why not go into equities, which give you the risks and the returns,” said Rountree.

He said Malaysian equity market is “sailing through the middle” as yield is attractive, but there are better yields from others out there, such as Japan, eurozone, global high-dividend equities, Asian (excluding Japanese) equities and emerging market equities.

“It (Malaysian equities) has always been a good story for years but it’s living in a world of great stories,” quipped Rountree.

He said the ringgit is arguably a cheap currency and investors remain wary, citing “confidence issues”.

Eastspring Investments Bhd chief investment officer Rudie Chan said the ringgit continued to be pressured by US interest rate increases but noted that this has been partially priced in.

“The ringgit has priced in weakness on what has been negative such as crude oil prices and US rate hikes, so hopefully the only way is up,” said Chan.

A sustainable rally in soft commodities together with Bank Negara Malaysia’s measures should help relieve the pressure on the currency, he added.

Chan expects a volatile year ahead with limited catalysts to re-rate the Malaysian stock market but trading opportunities will be available.

After three years of subdued performance for the Malaysian market, valuations are looking more attractive. Ample domestic liquidity is likely to continue to provide support to the market.

“This year we’re constructively more positive on the market, because we’ve priced in the weakness. The macro picture looks more promising this year,” Chan said.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on January 27, 2017, 07:11:28 AM



财经  2017年01月26日 | 记者:纪锋佑
道指衝破2万点 鸡年马股掀小牛市

393
道指衝破2万点 鸡年马股掀小牛市
档案照

(吉隆坡26日讯)猴年与鸡年交替之际,美国捎来佳音,道琼斯工业指数衝上2万点,创下新高水平,为市场平添一丝欢愉的情绪,市场人士也普遍相信,对股市而言,火鸡年將会是更好的一年。

回顾猴年的表现,虽然马股面对眾多不利的国內外因素衝击,但全年依然起29.76点或1.79%。展望即將来临的鸡年,市场人士普遍认为,受大选,大宗商品价格回稳及特朗普因素的带动,马股將有一波涨潮!

马股在猴年最后第2个交易日收报1692.22点,相比羊年闭市的1662.46点,涨幅达1.79%。

纵观整个猴年,可谓好坏参半,令吉进一步跌深,惟大宗商品价格已见復甦,双油(原油及棕油)价格回稳,点燃油气及种植领域的朝气。


有望重返1750点

英特太平洋证券研究主管冯廷秀接受《东方財经》访问时表示,受特朗普的经济政策提振,今年鸡年將更好,大马股市有望在今年中旬到达1750点的水平。

辉立资本首席投资员洪国兴也指出,以往当令吉急挫,连带股市也会大跌,然而猴年全年股市依然微涨,並未跟隨令吉疲软的走势,让人感到庆幸。

抽佣经纪陈玉麟指,富时综指已突破他所设下的1680点阻力水平,眼看今年要进一步上探1750点,甚至1800点水平,都不是问题。



另一名抽佣经纪卢文豪则认为,去年低油价及弱令吉已经反映在市场上,因此今年的股市料不会太差,除非有罕见事件发生。

特朗普近期宣布的政策,短期看似激励了市场情绪,但这样的情况是否可以持久?

冯廷秀认为,市场在6至9个月后,將会验证特朗普经济政策的实际效应,他个人不看好这些政策可行,也预期股市届时可能迎来一波调整。因此,他预计今年第3季之后,股市表现將不会如上半年般耀眼。

而洪国兴也持保守的看法,他认为,「今年的股市將难以预测,如今特朗普的一句话將能扭转局势,就算股市短期看到些许牛气,但明天一觉醒来,特朗普若宣布,其他损害大马经济的政策,这一切都可能改变。」

然而,基於特朗普將美国的公司关税从35%减低至15%,美国公司將会有额外的20%盈利空间,洪国兴预测美国的道琼斯指数在突破2万点后,还有20%的上涨空间。

不过,洪国兴认为,中国已取代美国成为大马最大的贸易出口国,因此,大马股市日后受中国股市的影响会更显著。

陈玉麟也提醒,目前的涨势恐是个曇花一现的小牛市,大选预期可能是推动这波涨幅的原因,他也担心,明年(2018年)將迎来10年一轮的经济风暴10年魔咒。

对於今年可投资的股项,市场人士一致认为出口导向股、油气领域股和基建股都值得关注。

看好基建出口股

冯廷秀表示,虽然特朗普的保护主义將损害大马出口股的利益,惟大马出口股目前涨势未歇。这代表市场只反映特朗普所提倡的政策的利好,却忽略其政策所带来的利空。

另外,他也指出,「在油价、大宗商品价格復甦的当儿,大马的油气股、种植股都是值得被关注的,惟必须留意个別公司的基本面如成长潜能、现金流、负债比率等。只要投资基本面强稳的股项,投资者还是可採取长期投资並守住;若投资於基本面不强的股项,我建议投资者採取短线交易策略。」

他预期油价走势將缓步攀升,惟这主要是取决於全球市场对原油的供应及需求。

洪国兴也看好大马出口导向股及基建股,並认为只要令吉维持在4.2令吉兑1美元的水平以上,出口股仍可获得更多订单。

「我认为令吉已被低估,令吉的基本面依然良好,惟投资者对令吉的投资情绪疲软。」

卢文豪则认为,除特定的油气股,投资者还是可关注一些过去因令吉贬值而受冷落的股项。

「汽车领域之前因令吉贬值而备受冷落。这类型股项对令吉及油价的价格更敏感,而一旦令吉走强,这类股项將获益。」

陈玉麟建议3大领域,分別是出口导向股、木材股及油气股。他说,令吉是区域內其中一个表现最差的货幣,相比区域其他国家,大马的出口股还是具有一定的竞爭优势。

「亚洲文件夹(ASIAFLE,7129,主板消费股)及林吉灵集团(CSCENIC,7202,主板消费股)是不错的出口股。另外,木材领域股如亿维雅(HEVEA,5095,主板工业股)及利兴工业(LIIHEN,7089,主板消费股),还有油气股大红花石油(HIBISCS,5199,主板工业股)都是这些领域赚钱能力不错的佼佼者。
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on February 04, 2017, 06:18:06 PM



2017-02-04 10:59
开年稳中走强.综指待攻破1700点
联昌研究认为,富时综指指标显示若能攻克1700点重要心理关口,有望向1750至1835点下道阻力发起攻势。
(吉隆坡3日讯)富时综合指数开年稳中走强,联昌研究认为,富时综指指标显示若能攻克1700点重要心理关口,有望向1750至1835点下道阻力发起攻势。

广告

下道阻力:1750至1835点今日闭市时,综指升11.53点,至1685.01点,距离1700点尚有一小段距离。

联昌研究表示,富时综指走势图显示,指数现已处于重大三角形盘整阶段,因此放眼指数将涨至1750至1835点,但指数需先突破1700点重要心理关口。

“一旦跌穿1614点支持水平,将对富时综指走势带来负面影响。”

但是,尽管富时综指处于三角形盘整阶段,富时小资本指数已逾年处于横摆状态,而每周平均乖离(MACD)和相对强弱指数(RSI)指标呈正面水平,联昌研究预见富时小资本指数可能突破16100点至17200点。

“若富时小资本指数涨至1614点的一年高位,这将给我们信心小资本股涨潮可能即将开始。”

联昌研究也提及种植指数,称相关指数已连续6年呈震荡横摆交易模式发展,除非出现明显的上下突围迹象,否则指数摇摆不定的趋势将延续下去。



前代理推自有品牌抗Chatime

广告

“原棕油价走势图显示,在触及每公吨3000令吉的阻力趋势线后,原棕油涨势可能稍见喘息。原棕油价可能刚完成重大三角形盘整阶段(d)浪,正迎向(e)浪来为自2008年成形的重大三角形盘整划上句点。

美元涨势或告终

至于马币方面,美元兑马币平均乖离和相对强弱指数已呈负背离(NegativeDivergence)迹象,意味着美元涨势可能告终。

联昌研究说:“尽管美元短期可能更为强势,但我们预见未来数月马币有望转强,兑美元汇价可能在今年下半年返至4至4.10关口。”

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经 ‧ 报道:洪建文‧2017.02.03
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on February 12, 2017, 08:57:09 PM



2017-02-12 19:26
6大因素扶持.马股今年有转机
2016年,应该是近年来相当动荡的一年,因不少黑天鹅事件冲击了原有的计划,市场进入波动剧烈走势。进入2017年,到底往下的走势是否会比过往来得更差,还是有机会回扬呢?《投资致富》综合一众基金经理与分析员的意见后,为您解答往后走势。
2016年,应该是近年来相当动荡的一年,因不少黑天鹅事件冲击了原有的计划,市场进入波动剧烈走势。进入2017年,到底往下的走势是否会比过往来得更差,还是有机会回扬呢?《投资致富》综合一众基金经理与分析员的意见后,为您解答往后走势。

广告

 
肯纳格研究首席投资员李淑仪日前在Fundsupermart的一项讲座会上表示,2017年在6大因素下,马股有望比过往来得好。

6大因素分别为大宗商品价格回扬、巨型基建持续及中国投资增加、大马盈利改善、政府相关公司进行重组计划、第14届大选可能落在今年及外资持有率降低。

油价棕油回扬有助企业盈利增

李淑仪表示,国际油价与原棕油货价格回扬,有助于企业盈利的增加。

2016年首个交易日,国际油价报36.76美元,截至2016年12月30日止,国际油价挂53.72美元,涨46.3%。

“感激石油输出国组织(OPEC)与非OPEC愿意下砍石油产量,进而提振油价走势。”



纳吉胞弟入股 实康子公司受关注

广告

 
早前,石油输出国组织同意,2017年1月起,每日产量减少120万桶(相等于全球产量的1.3%)至3250万桶,为期6个月。

沙地阿拉伯减产最多,日产量减少48万6000桶、伊拉克、阿联酋及科威特日产量则分别减少21万桶、12万9000桶及13万1000桶。

值得一提的是,包括俄罗斯在内11个非石油输出国家组织的国家,亦同意OPEC的要求,2017年开始减产,以减轻世界石油过剩与油价走低。

11个非OPEC国家同意1月1日开始每日减产55万8000桶6个月,期满得可延6个月。

广告

沙地阿拉伯石油部长法利形容这是“历史性”的协议,表示有助2017年油市稳定及鼓励业界投资。

这是15年来世界首次达成类似协议,OPEC将在2017年5月25日的下次会议检讨协议进度和成效。

针对原棕油货表现方面,李淑仪表示,去年初每吨价格报2400令吉,年杪则回扬近3000令吉。

李淑仪说,原棕油在未来3至4个月内的表现仍相当不错,不过,下半年基于产量走高,届时将会呈现下跌走势。

今年经济料成长4.3%

此外,李淑仪表示,过往3年经济成长放缓,而2017年的经济成长预测为4.3%,这意味企业盈利仍有一定成长的空间。

针对基建领域方面,李淑仪说,2017年基建领域合约总值规模高达2120亿令吉,预期30%将会在2017年颁发。

其中最为关注的包括捷运2线、轻快铁3线、沙巴泛婆大道及金马士至新山双轨火车合约。

李淑仪预料东海岸衔接铁道(ECRL)可能在2017年动工。“此外,一些巨型的建筑合约包括高铁及大马城计划。”

马股下跌空间不大

询及马股的估值,李淑仪按大马富时综合指数1670点计算,本益比约16.4倍,2017及2018年的本益比则为14.8倍。

“综指过往10年平均的本益比为15.6倍,目前,周息率为3.2%。”

市场盛传,政府将会在2017年举办大选。对此李淑仪仅表示,首相任期将在明年6月结束,因此不排除今年会大选。

“若今年大选,日期可能会坐落在5月及10月,再不然可能会在2018年的3月份。”

李淑仪补充,值得留意的是大马过往6次大选前夕,马股都有上涨的迹象。

李淑仪也表示,2016年外资已经卖了31亿令吉马股,过往3年卖出300亿令吉马股。

“截至2016年11月为止,外资的持股比例为22.6%,对比金融风暴时期,外资的持股比例为20.3%。”

2015年及2014年,外资共分别净卖197亿令吉及69亿令吉马股。

李淑仪说,基于外资过往处于净卖马股,因此未来马股下跌的空间并不会太大。

瀚亚投资高级基金经理邓燕慧也表示,目前,马股小资本处于相当诱人的阶段,可以考虑吸纳基本面优良的股票,作为长期投资。

外围因素不利新兴货币

李淑仪也针对外围的风险提出了看法,分别为特朗普政策、欧洲民粹主义兴起及中国经济成长放缓。

特朗普竞选美国总统的政治宣言包括加大基建与国防开销、下砍企业税务及驱逐非法移民等。

李淑仪认为,特朗普政策可能会驱使通膨加剧及美国国债收益走高。

“联储局今年也会采取3次的升息政策。”

汇率走势方面,李淑仪仅表示,欧盟与日本采取的货币宽松政策,将会加剧强势美元,对新兴市场的货币而言,相当不利。

马币未来3个月走势料持平

针对马币,李淑仪说,根据多方面的经济数据显示,马币无疑是被低估,但预期未来的3个月内,马币走势仍持平。

“大马约48%的政府债券为外资持有,这亦是令吉汇率所面对的风险。”

回顾2016年11月,外资大幅脱售大马政府债券,高达200亿令吉,马币兑美元也从11月初的4.1885令吉弱化7%至4.486令吉。

李淑仪说,今年初,泰铢、印尼盾及人民币皆有少许回扬,独令吉表现不佳。

李淑仪综合各方面的意见后,怀疑这与国家银行强制商家必须把大部份货币转换至马币政策有关。

“外资忧虑,此举将是国行采取货币管制的前奏。”

投资员:成长估计2.5兆美元
东盟将成全球第四大经济体

兴业伊斯兰国际资产管理首选投资员聂哈辛,也分享与大马唇齿相依的东盟经济走势。

聂哈辛表示,东盟经济体是中国与日本之后最大的经济体。“东盟的经济成长估计为2.5兆美元,2050年之时,东盟将成为全球第四大经济体。”

聂哈辛补充,市场预测2016至2020年,东盟每年的经济成长复合成长率(CAGR)达8.02%,印度与中国的经济成长则分别为10.01%及9.63%,而全球的经济成长则为5.62%。

聂哈辛以越南为例,“在越南,代步工具都是摩哆车,如果改用汽车代步,就会面临很严重的塞车问题。因此,越南在未来将会在基建方面,做出庞大的开销以改善交通的问题。”

此外,在越南许多人使用智能手机,但当地的电讯并未提供4G服务,这意味当地在未来需进行相关开销,如提供光纤材料,进而提高成长机会。

聂哈辛说,外资非常喜爱进军CLMV市场,因为这些国家具备发展的潜力。

CLMV为柬埔寨、寮国、缅甸及越南。

东盟在未来仍有不少的成长主题,分别为外国直接投资(FDI)增加、亚洲工厂、中等收入群体崛起。

“2014年,东盟的FDI高达244亿美元,而2013年的FDI只有194亿美元。”

打造泛亚铁路促进运输

此外,聂哈幸也表示,东盟也在打造泛亚铁路网络(Pan Asia Railway Network)以促进日后的运输。

泛亚铁路网络由3条线组成,分别为中线、西线及东线。3条铁路皆以中国云南及泰国曼谷为转接点,再从上述转接点,将物品运输至中国内陆地区、大马及新加坡。中线途经泰国、西线途经缅甸为主、东线则途经越南及柬埔寨。

聂哈幸补充,可以预见东盟国家在未来将会需要建造更多的大道。



文章来源:
星洲日报‧投资致富‧市场热点‧文:谢汪潮‧2017.02.12
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on February 13, 2017, 02:50:44 PM
On expectation of further earnings recovery. 2017 Year-end Target: 1,830 points
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on February 20, 2017, 08:57:34 AM



LATEST NEWS, CORPORATE
FROM THE EDGE, TOP STORIES
Highlight
Analysts uncertain if run-up will be sustained
By Samantha Ho / The Edge Financial Daily   | February 20, 2017 : 8:32 AM MYT   
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This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on February 20, 2017.
 

KUALA LUMPUR: After a disappointing 2016, which saw analysts lower their target for the FBM KLCI, there is a somewhat more optimistic feeling about the prospects for 2017 after the benchmark index crossed the 1,700-point mark last week.

The market’s run-up is not out of place among regional and global markets, but will the uptrend be sustained?

Analysts are careful to paint two sides to the picture. On one hand, commodity prices including crude oil and palm oil are up, giving an advantage to local producers and exporters.

However, “market exuberance” alone will not be enough to boost markets for long, one head of research opined.

“Whether or not the rally is sustainable is a big question,” he told The Edge Financial Daily over the phone.

The FBM KLCI last breached the 1,700 mark in March 2016 but only hovered above it for a little over a month, subsequently sinking to as low as 1,621.21 in May. Since then, the key barometer has struggled to make a comeback, only getting close at 1,699.89 on Aug 16.

Last Friday, the index closed at 1,707.68, flat on daily trade but up some 4.08% year to date (YTD).

Although the FBM KLCI clearly rebounded in January and sentiments seem to have improved, the index still lags behind its regional peers in terms of recovery, said Ang Kok Heng, chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management Bhd.

“Last year, if not for the weak ringgit, our market should have seen a positive gain,” Ang said.

Regional indices have rallied with varying strengths YTD. Singapore’s Straits Times Index has been the most bullish, up some 10.21% to 3,107.65.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and South Korea’s Kospi also outshone their peers, rising 9.13% and 7.66% YTD respectively.

“This year we are just playing catch-up [with regional markets], but even now we are still behind them,” Ang said, although he thinks there is still room for the local market to reach similar heights.

“In fact, if you look at the US Dollar Index (which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies), it’s back to the US$100 (RM445) level again, so we see some foreign funds coming back to this region,” he added.

The US Dollar Index registered US$100.47 at the time of writing, down from a five-year high of US$103.30 on Dec 28, 2016.

According to Areca Capital Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Danny Wong Teck Meng, investors have started to take profit from the high US dollar with over US$2 billion flowing back into the region over the last few months, with the Malaysian market seeing nearly US$100 net inflow of foreign funds since January.

Wong was more upbeat about future prospects following what is seen as a recovery of the US economy.

“Emerging markets have actually gone up in the six to nine months after the tightening of US Federal Reserve interest rates after the last two or three times [rates were hiked],” Wong told The Edge Financial Daily via telephone.

Another contributing factor to the rally is a recovery in corporate earnings, which had bottomed out after declining over the past couple of years, Wong said.

“The weakening ringgit might not be as bad as we thought, what with the recovery of the commodity prices,” he added.

However, another analyst who declined to be named opined that despite the improvement in market sentiment, “things are not as good as they seem”.

“For a market rally to be sustainable, there need to be very compelling reasons. High yields, high earnings and high growth … none of those factors currently exist,” the analyst said.

Despite popular opinion that the government may be looking to boost spending ahead of the 14th General Election, which is due by March 2018, the analyst also raised concerns over ballooning government debt.

“Good commodity prices are only part of the story. We can [also] look at government spending, but I think whether investment and consumption levels are up to expectation is more important,” added the analyst.

The question now is: Is it still a good time to invest in Malaysian equities?

“We believe the current rally can last until May probably,” said Chris Eng, the head of research at Etiqa Insurance Bhd.

“We have been advocating investors to buy into the Malaysian stock market since August 2016 given that we saw improving economic fundamentals in the first half of 2017,” he said in an email response.

According to Wong, 2016 would have been the best time to invest in the market, but he remains optimistic about Bursa Malaysia this year.

“It won’t be a smooth rally — on and off the market may see pullbacks for healthy correction,” Wong said.

He highlighted political developments in Europe and US President Donald Trump’s policies as key developments to keep an eye on.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 03, 2017, 06:46:03 AM



Oil & gas sector’s Q4 earnings – more misses than hits, says PublicInvest
Posted on 3 March 2017 - 05:37am
sunbiz@thesundaily.com
Print
PETALING JAYA: PublicInvest Research said the oil and gas sector took the limelight again in the results round-up for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2016, with widespread earnings misses owing to unprecedented impairments as well as the slowdown in job flows.

The research house noted that the plantation and construction sectors also recorded disappointing results, though largely down to specific developments such as delayed billings, and not symptomatic of operational difficulties.

“Consensus expectations were fairly similar this time round, with the oil and gas, plantation and construction sectors also proving to be a bane,” it noted.

The Q4’s earnings hits (above and/or in-line) are at a convincing 60%:40% against the 52%:48% in the previous quarter, it added.

Meanwhile, it said the property and telco sectors saw the most number of downward earnings revisions, to account for changes in billing assumptions for the former and imputation of higher costs for the latter.

Nonetheless, PublicInvest Research said the earnings picture is better now with an expectation of more substantive earnings recovery in 2017 and 2018, with the FBM KLCI expected to achieve 1,750 points at the end of the year.

It noted that the target may possibly be overshot based on expectations and timing of the forthcoming general elections, adding it sees gradual recoveries in global economic conditions this year, more pertinently in China.

PublicInvest maintained its “overweight” stance on the plantation, power, oil and gas, as well as the construction sectors.

Its suggested picks for 2017 are Sime Darby, Genting Plantations, Ta Ann Holdings, LBS Bina, Chin Hin Group, Wah Seong Corp, SapuraKencana Petroleum, VS Industry, JAKS Resources and SCGM.

“We suggest selective exposure into the banking sector, as we see valuations of some increasingly attractive at current. We see no major reason to remain under-invested in the market,” it said.

Commenting on the currency, PublicInvest believes that the ringgit has been oversold by about 10%, which may suggest a potential reversal of foreign flows when the dust (capital outflow from US Fed-related actions) eventually settles.

“Domestic investors flush with cash should be primed for re-entry. While the market has popped up a little since the end of last year when we kept harping on this, we still see room for further upside,” it added
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 05, 2017, 07:37:12 AM



宏利调查:市场稳回酬高
买股良机半年内浮现
756点看 2017年3月4日
 

(吉隆坡4日讯)宏利亚洲投资者意向指数(Manulife Investment Sentiment Index)调查报告显示,75%的大马受访者认为,未来6个月是股票投资的“中和至良好时机”。


投资兴趣提高的主要原因是,亚洲股市是个非常稳定的市场,占了34%、股票回酬高过其他投资,占了34%,以及股市有改善的迹象,占了33%。

宏利资产管理服务有限公司(Manulife Asset Management Services)董事经理兼总投资长张顺明称,公司对马股未来一年持正面看法。

“政府推行基建项目及消费信心逐渐恢复,预计将支撑今年的经济增长。商品价格持续改善也有助于增强令吉。”

经济增长保持弹性

在通胀水平适中及国内环境稳定的情况下,他预计我国经济增长将保持弹性。

“油价走高,再加上政府财政整合计划,将降低主权评级下调的风险。本地经济基本面将继续支撑我国的债券市场。”

该调查报告指,83%的大马投资者认为,未来6个月是投资在固定收益资产的“中和至良好时机”。

根据调查,在全球政治及市场不稳定的当儿,亚洲新兴市场增长预计,今年将继续为投资者提供机会。

在网上进行的调查,有500人是源自大马、香港、中国、台湾、泰国、新加坡,以及菲律宾。

另外,约有500人在印尼接受面对面的访谈。


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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 08, 2017, 06:49:21 AM



Tuesday, 7 March 2017 | MYT 9:57 PM
EPF ceases to be Bursa Malaysia’s substantial shareholder
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/03/07/14/02/dcx_doc6s6o6ldo74gw74fmegp.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=482E5F8BE912AEC18E97993D5747189624D3A9B0
The EPF has been disposing shares in Bursa Malaysia since early December 2016.
The EPF has been disposing shares in Bursa Malaysia since early December 2016.
 
PETALING JAYA: The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in stock exchange operator Bursa Malaysia Bhd after disposing 500,000 shares last Thursday, leaving it with 26.56 million shares or 4.95%, according to the latest filing with the bourse.

Within the week prior to Friday, the retirement fund had disposed of a total of 220,000 shares on three separate days, reducing its stake in Bursa to 5.046% or 27.06 million share.

The EPF has been disposing shares in Bursa Malaysia since early December 2016. In that month, it sold a 1.21% stake or 6.48 million Bursa Malaysia shares.

Year-to-date, it has sold 1.29% or 6.94 million shares.

Bursa shares gained 12 sen on Tuesday to RM9.23, with 1.82 million shares changing hands.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/07/epf-ceases-to-be-bursa-malaysias-substantial-shareholder/#M5JKyHbPs3XufSOU.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 12, 2017, 08:38:34 AM



Saturday, 11 March 2017 | MYT 7:58 PM
Fundamental difference between stocks and commodities
BY MARK REIJMAN

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/03/11/12/01/commoditiesstocks-march17.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=1CB770EE566432BF516B5777E3AC581EC36DF3C0

 
IF YOU choose to invest, you have numerous options of assets to invest in: stocks, corporate and government bonds and commodities.

Then you have a whole range of more exotic investment instruments, like options, futures, warrants, turbo’s, (synthetic) CDO’s or CMO’s, which I will not delve further in here.

Commodities can be distinguished in four categories: energy (oil, gas, electricity), metals (gold, copper, iron), livestock and meat (beef, pork bellies, live cattle) and agricultural products (rice, palm oil, corn, coffee, cocoa, cotton, sugar, orange juice).

It is believed that 6,000 years ago, traders in China already bought and sold rice futures, a contract to buy a predetermined quantity and quality of rice at a predetermined price somewhere in the future. These futures were used by farmers who want to hedge their risk.

Farmers want to ensure that what they sow today is still valuable when they reap. By paying a premium, they are ensured of a fixed price ahead of harvesting time.

Although they miss the potential upside of possibly higher prices, they also lose the risk of possible lower prices. Nowadays, most futures are bought and sold by traders and it is standard practice to settle the contract in cash, instead of actual physical delivery of rice.

One of the differences between stocks and commodities is that the average citizen won’t be directly impacted by the rise or fall of any company’s stock.

On the other hand, a rise in the price of commodities such as electricity or rice will be directly felt through reduced purchasing power.

On the other hand, a drop in the price of oil will be felt through a smaller government budget (which the government might counter with more taxes).

Commodities represent actual, physical products, while stocks represent ownerships – a part in the future cash flows of a company. Commodities are typically traded and held for a shorter duration, while stock can be held years, even decades.

So there are multiple differences, but what is the one, big fundamental difference? This difference is that commodities won’t ‘do’ anything, while stocks do.

 Your gold won’t grow slowly from 100 to 200 grams and your rice investments will also not magically double. In fact, they might spoil!

This means that the only way to make money with commodities is to buy low and sell high, which everyone in the market is trying to do, so it is not exactly easy.

Many stocks, on the other hand, will pay you dividend, while you are holding the stock.

Even if you sell after a year for exactly the same price as you bought, you will have made a return on your investment.

Hence, stocks can "grow" in a way that commodities can’t. Stocks ‘work’ for you as the company they own tries to produce more cash flows.

So, commodities are standing still, their price determined by global forces of supply, demand and the occasional natural disaster.

Bonds – which generate interest payments – move very steady and predictably and at the end of the duration of the bond, you will get your money back. Stocks, finally can move at different speeds, depending on how well the company is doing.

Does this mean stocks are most risky and commodities are safe? No, not at all. Commodities are known to be quite volatile (think of what happened to the oil price), while the volatility of stocks can be reduced fairly easy by diversifying your investments.

 I would therefore not advise commodity training for beginners. You are better of buying rice for consumption and stocks as investments.

Mark Reijman is co-founder and managing director of https://www.comparehero.my/ dedicated to increasing financial literacy and to help you save time and money by comparing all credit cards, personal loans and broadband plans in Malaysia.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/11/fundamental-difference-between-stocks-and-commodities/#8Y7kQrygwgdxArKj.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 14, 2017, 03:00:58 PM



Tuesday, 14 March 2017 | MYT 1:15 PM
Financial services, property and consumer sectors set to outperform FBM KLCI
BY DALJIT DHESI

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/06/02/02/27/bursa-bull-and-bear.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=0F6D09A6CFA7DFC129D0854B168AC93D7757AEBC

 
PETALING JAYA: Financial services, property and consumer sectors, which are linked to cyclical upturn, could outperform the broader market this year amid a more stable currency outlook. 
Against a backdrop of a more stable currency outlook, AmInvestment Research believe investors would start to pay more attention to the cyclical upturn in corporate earnings in Malaysia, as reflected in 7.2% and 8.3% growth in FBM KLCI earnings for its 2017 and 2018 forecast respectively.


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image: http://bcp.crwdcntrl.net/5/c=5593/b=38427131


Under this circumstance, it noted on Tuesday in a report that cyclical sectors could start to outperform the broader market, i.e. financial services (CIMB and RHB Bank), property (MRCB and Sunway) and consumer discretionary (Padini).

Besides that, the research outfit felt that small-and mid-cap stocks (defined as those with market capitalisation of up to RM2bil) could be in the limelight, thanks to the Government’s mandate to government-linked company(GLC) funds in Budget 2017 to allocate up to RM3bil to invest in this space, backed by equity research financed with an initial funding of RM75mil from the Capital Market Development Fund administered by Bursa Malaysia.
AmInvestment Research said towards this end, it added that it liked high growth small and mid cap stocks such as VS Industry, OldTown and Bison. The research outfit  was maintaining its  end 2017 KLCI target of 1,745 points and end-2018  target of 1,900 points, based on 17.5 times 2017 and 2018 forecast earnings respectively.

In a report entitled, “Malaysia a winner as Emerging Markets brave political uncertainty In Eurozone” the research house believe the portfolio rebalancing out of emerging markets, triggered by the expectations of a steeper rate hike cycle in the US post Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election in Nov 2016, has somewhat run its full course.

“Not only have major emerging market equity indices recouped all losses from the Trump selloff in Nov 2016, they have surpassed the levels before the selloff to hit new 18-24 month highs.
"Similarly, emerging market bond yields have come off their recent highs, while emerging market currencies have come off their recent lows, and they have since seemingly found their support levels,’’ it added.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/14/cyclical-sectors-to-outperform-market/#lj4PmyIqQm6sUSp4.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 16, 2017, 07:03:19 AM



财经  2017年03月15日
日均交易值超预期 马交所前景看高一线

日均交易值超预期 马交所前景看高一线
截至3月13日为止,大马交易所每日平均交易值为28亿3000万令吉,按月上扬11.8%。

(吉隆坡15日讯)由于马股今年以来(截至3月13日)的交易数据超越预期,分析员上调大马交易所(BURSA,1818,主板金融股)的財测、投资评级和目標价;同时,也预测大马交易所將派发较高的股息,周息率介于6至6.5%。

从年初至3月13日,大马交易所每日平均交易值(ADV)达23亿3000令吉,高于艾芬黄氏资本分析员所预测的19亿9000万令吉,表现超预期。

该分析员指出,大马交易所今年1月的每日平均交易值按月上涨9.6%,至19亿3000万令吉;2月则达25亿3000万令吉,按月增长31%。截至3月13日为止,3月的每日平均交易值为28亿3000万令吉,按月上扬11.8%。

在衍生品市场方面,1月和2月的平均每日交易量按月增加9.9%及36.7%,但在3月却按月下滑27%。


儘管衍生品的日均合约交易量(ADC)为5万2484宗,略低于预测的5万9500宗,但分析员认为,日均合约交易量在未来数月有上升空间,因为投资情绪正在改善。

大马交易所的交易数据显示,截至今年3月13日,股票市场情绪转为乐观,本地机构投资者占交易总值的49%至50%,外国投资者佔约20%(与2015至2016年的25至26%相比,处在下跌趋势)。

5利好支撑市场动力

分析员称,如果乐观的情绪持续,相信流入大马的资金將强稳,以及预料资金將从债市流向股市,这有利于大马交易所的前景。

「我们认为,5个利好將支撑目前的市场动力,即:一、企业盈利復甦;二、活络的企业活动,包括新股上市、企业合併或分拆;三、股市交投炙热;四、商品价格处在良好的周期;五、即將举行的全国大选。

艾芬黄氏资本分析员指出,隨著调高马股的每日平均交易值预测和衍生產品的每日平均合约交易量,他也將大马交易所2017至2019財政年的盈利预测,分別上修8.8%至19%。同时,他也將该股的投资评级从「卖出」上调至「买进」,目標价从7令吉上调至10.80令吉。

此外,他也把2017至2019財政年的每股股息预测,分別调高至60仙、55仙和45仙,净周息率分別为6.5%、6%和4.9%。

今天闭市时,大马交易所以9.18令吉平盘收市。

Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 18, 2017, 08:14:34 AM



Saturday, 18 March 2017
Good year for emerging markets?
BY INTAN FARHANA ZAINUL

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/03/17/18/56/bizw_p18a_1803_jy_11.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=4BB4DD5B17286C39EC4347CBC8DAFAF907E8A141

 
STARBIZWEEK met up with Edward Evans (pic), who is part of the emerging markets (EM) equity team with Schroders Plc, at its headquarters in London recently.

Evans shares his broad view on the outlook for the EM this year, of which he reckons that 2017 would be a good year for the market after almost eight years of flat growth.

Although stocks in the EM tanked from the “Trump Tantrum” last year, there were rallies of fund inflows into the EM in the beginning of 2016.

On emerging economies, Evans says the recovery in global economies will support growth and that nations like Russia and Brazil are among his top picks, coming from a low base, and that the stock market rally would depend on oil and gas prices.

“We are constructive on the EM. The valuation seems attractive, but you need to be selective,” he says.

Below are excerpts from the interview:

The world has been undergoing slow economic growth since 2008 and the market has gone through more than eight years of a bull cycle. How do you view the market now, especially with concerns like the growth of China and Trump’s policy?

The developed market (DM) such as the United States has gone through a bull cycle, and we are currently in that theme, while the EM has actually been approximately flat. In other words, you have neither lost money nor earned it.

The MSCI EM index has been flat. Since the 2008 crisis, the index has recovered sharply, but since the end of 2009, the MSCI has been flat. Therefore, it has underperformed relative to the DM over that eight-year period. In terms of global growth, for sure it has been anaemic and boring, and we are wondering when is this ever going to change. It is interesting to note that on a year-to-date basis, global growth has actually shown a little bit more signs of synchronising pick-up in growth. However, it is not on a big scale.

This is important in the EM’s point of view because the EM, as you can imagine, is a market that benefits from increased global trading activities.

It is very good news if the global backdrop is a little bit more supportive for the EM to operate. Now, the EMs are doing far more trades with one another. If you go back 20 years, it was all about the EM exporting to the developed world.

For sure, we are still seeing it now, but in the last two decades, EM intra-trade has become far more important, and clearly, China is within that.

We are sort of coming into a period today where you ride off the slow global growth, but we are seeing signs of a pick-up in synchronised global activities. EM economies are looking a little bit better and a bit rosier, led by the two big economies of Russia and Brazil recovering from a very low base. Also, China, a big part of the EM growth story, has stabilised.

So, when you put these factors together, you can sum up quite a positive economic growth backdrop for the EM to perform in.

What happened to the EM last year? What are the big question marks in the market now?

The elephant in the room clearly has been the Trump presidency. What you saw last year after three consecutive years of EM underperformance against the DM and three consecutive years of net outflows where the sentiment was very poor towards the EM, is starting to change.

In 2016, you started to see the momentum coming back to the EM. The inflow started to come in. Our phones were ringing a lot, and people were looking to get into the EM.

So, at the industry level, you were seeing about US$12bil of net inflow, peaking towards the end of the summer in 2016.

Then came along the Trump election win, which basically put that momentum on hold. So, suddenly, you saw a reversal of those flows into the EM. At end-2016, industry flow was still positive, but very small.

In a short period of time, the market quickly priced in the stronger US story and potential trade protection measures.

Coming back to my point that the EM benefits from increasing global activities and global trading volume, once you start to see difficult world politics or any changes in trade policy, it could potentially be bad news for the EM.

Another point is that companies’ earnings in the EM are improving. At the end of the day, we are talking about the stock markets, and they react to long-term growth in earnings.

So, EM corporates are finally getting better in managing their businesses. They are cutting cost and managing capital better, and are investing more wisely. It is because if you rewind the scenario to 10 years ago, the EM corporates had it easy. A lot of these companies are in protected industries with heavy Government support, often related to commodity prices during the commodity super-cycle. It was easy to look good.

Clearly, since the financial crisis, the backdrop has been far more difficult. So, it is only recently that EM corporates have been improving, catching up with inefficiencies, and improving margins and growth.

The main question now on everyone’s mind is: “Has the outlook on the EM changed, or is it now the time to reconsider investments?”

What is your outlook on the emerging economies’ equity market this year?

There are two ways the Trump presidency can impact the EM: number one through trade, and number two through fiscal policy.

From the trade policy point of view, clearly in Trump’s campaign, he was very vocal about Mexico and he also said some points on China. So, everyone is very worried that there are negatives going to happen.

Ultimately, nobody quite knows the direction. We all know that President Trump likes to make noise, but in terms of actual policy implementation, it has so far been far more muted than the concerns we saw at the end of last year.

At the end of the day, the world has become very entwined globally. Globalisation has become so great that it’s not so straightforward to slap on tariffs or border controls because everything is integrated.

Quite frankly, nobody knows any trade policy change’s implications. But it seems like any moves would be far more selective and targeted than broad changes. Therefore, as an investor, the impact is going to be specific to a country or maybe to sectors or companies within that country.

On fiscal policy, as we mentioned earlier, so Trump came in and people thought “oh wow, he is going to embark on a massive infrastructure programme”, and that it would boost the US economy. That would probably mean that the Federal Reserve would need to tighten its interest rate policy quicker than currently anticipated.

This would mean tighter liquidity for the global market as a whole. Clearly, normally, an aggressive interest rate hike of the cycle would support the dollar.

Those two things – tighter global liquidity and a stronger dollar – are bad news for the EM.

Would you say that the US dollar is already at its peak?

Everyone had quite priced in the negatives last year. Since the rally in the US dollar in 2016, the currency started to stabilise and actually weakened a little bit this year. The market has sort of like calmed down. So, why is that? In part, I reckon Trump can’t just turn up and embark on an aggressive fiscal programme, there are other parties involved.

The other key point is that the US economy’s growth has been reasonably good from an employment point of view. It’s close to being full. So, when President Trump is talking about job creation, that is quite difficult to do, especially at this stage of the cycle.

Therefore, putting that together, it is unlikely that the dollar would go on any strong strengthening phase as it had done in the last 12 months.

Overall, this would remain a tail risk, not about the base case.

Valuation-wise, how is the EM like? Can you also briefly give us your comments on South-East Asia as well as Malaysia?

Our strategy is top-down country allocation. We identify the country first and then we look at the companies. Overall, valuations for the EM look reasonable. It looks attractive in the developed world.

Sadly, Malaysia is at the bottom of our model.

From the bottom-up perspective, Malaysia is structurally quite expensive. One of the reasons is because of the Government-linked investment companies that have a restriction to buy locally. So they form a big part of the market and keep stock prices high. So, it’s always quite an expensive market, which doesn’t help. Adding to that, it also impacts liquidity.

Meanwhile, in terms of the top-down perspective, Malaysia is quite a mature and developed market in the EM. Political instability is adding more headwinds. But, of course, at the end of the day, it’s about the valuations.

Indonesia and the Philippines have expensive valuations.

Nonetheless, we are neutral on China. It is a very big economy and is juggling with the Trump factor, a new economic model, a consumption-led economy, and at the same time, carrying out reform measures that had weighed on growth.

That said, China is usually misunderstood by investors. The outlook is bright and rosy for China. It has huge internal savings, current account surpluses and a controlled banking sector. I think the expectation is overcooked and valuations are becoming reasonable


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/18/good-year-for-emerging-markets/#6t7GHiqTklowFbkm.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 18, 2017, 04:41:32 PM



马股交投逼近50亿股
成交值创9个月新高
1894点看 2017年3月17日
报道:刘颖政
(吉隆坡17日讯)马股交投火热,今天成交量逼近50亿股,达49亿8162万8000股,写下自2014年8月21日以来最高!


黄德明


此外,成交值更突破50亿令吉大关,报50亿3655万506令吉,是自去年6月以来新高。

Areca资本总执行长黄德明认为,美联储升息幅度小于市场预期,打消了“鹰派当道”大幅调升的负面担忧,大大刺激股市投资者的乐观情绪。

“投资者认为,美联储升息程度温和且合理,没有出现市场预测的激进升息。”

除了小幅升息外,肯纳格投资银行研究主管陈建尧也认为,“升息带来股市跌势”的投资情绪,已在投资市场上完全消退,这额外扶持股市涨势。

“负面的预测已在一年多前出现,但随着市场完全消化这预测,让本地股市在美联储在今近日升息后,出现不跌反升的情况。”

另外,两人都乐见外资的流入,也异口同声认为,本地股市在短期内仍充满“牛气”。


陈建尧

牛气充斥上看1775

续首两个月净买入马股后,外资在本月初至17日共净买入22亿2525万令吉;在2月时净买入9.6亿令吉,1月份为4.2亿令吉。

富时隆综指从去年杪的1641.73点,涨至今天的1745.20点,涨幅达到6.3%或103.47点。

陈建尧看好短期马股走向,更提到综指料在未来一个月内,有潜能上探1775点水平。

隆综指在2015年3月16日,从1775点反弹回升,形成扶持水平。

而对于目前的走势来说,则转为阻力水平。

陈建尧指出:“欧洲正经历大选年,不少基金经理为了避险,将资金从欧洲市场投入大马和其他亚洲新兴市场,进一步推动股市上涨。”



今年或大选 诱外资重返

陈建尧认为,市场估计我国今年可能大选,因此吸引外资继续流入。

“市场预测,我国将今年举行大选,按照过往的表现,大选年都吸引外资流入我国。”

黄德明则认为,外资早前已经完成了“撤资”举动,现在来到“重回马股”的周期,因此,这样的趋势预计会延续一段时期。

“目前,我们看不到因为美国升息导致外资进一步撤离马股的迹象,反而出现回流加码。”

“因此我认为所谓的‘撤离马股’现象,在今年不会再发生。”

散户未完投入

虽然马股在近日高歌猛进,但黄德明认为,本地散户似乎还未完全苏醒,更没有出现全体投入市场的状况。

他提到,一旦外资流入,通常最先有反应的是本地投资机构,而散户往往都是慢半拍,最后才进场持股,同时也是最后离场。

“从成交量和股价走势来看,还没出现交投异常活跃的现象,通常都是涨至一定位置,甚至高位后,散户才开始全体买票进场。”

马交所作价创9年新高

交投活动炽热,加上市场看好未来交易活动,作为我国唯一交易所营运公司——大马交易所(BURSA,1818,主板金融股),股价今一度突破9年来新高,来到9.77令吉!

该股今天以9.35令吉开盘后,涨势不断,休市前一度冲至9.77令吉或4.6%,创下2008年3月6日以来新高,不过随后回吐涨幅。

马交所最终收报9.50令吉,升16仙或1.71%,成交量为386万6600股。

堡垒投资分析员盖弗里黄(译音)向彭博社指出,全球股市攀升,驱动投资者的信心引擎,增加市场活动,大大利好交易所营运公司。

盖弗里黄说道:“这不但带来更高的交易量和交易额,也包括更多的上市、并购活动,及其他企业活动。”

“多个企业活动,也会为马交所提供更多收入。”



艾芬黄氏建议买入

另外,艾芬黄氏投资早前也指出,基于交易所的每日平均成交值大增,显示出投
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 18, 2017, 04:42:21 PM



Friday, 17 March 2017 | MYT 6:44 PM
Trading value on Bursa surges to RM5b, foreign buying hits net RM816m
BY JOSEPH CHIN

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/03/17/10/53/klci-march17.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=5DB3371D118558F6C7F68A138673A2AD3276A001

 
KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia capped the week on a strong note as trading value surged to RM5bil, the highest since May 31, 2016, powered by foreign fund buying of banks, Axiata and Petronas Chemicals after a positive outlook from Credit Suisse Research.

At 5pm, the FBM KLCI was up 8.06 points or 0.46% to 1,745.20 – about the highest since mid-2015 but off the day's best as key Asian markets retreated.

Trading volume on Bursa was 4.98 billion shares – a surge from the average three billion over units done each. Trading value was RM5.03bil, reflecting the better quality of buying. Advancers beat decliners 591 to 368 while 359 counters were unchanged.

Stock market data showed foreign funds were net buyers at RM816mil, compared with over RM600mil on Thursday. Local institutions were net sellers at RM738.2mil while retailers were net sellers at RM77.9mil.

Credit-Suisse Research believes the 45-month 34% US dollar underperformance of Malaysian equities (20% in local currency terms) was warranted. However, it has now reached an end game.

In a recent research report, the foreign research house said it had now turned positive on Malaysia.

Meanwhile, key Asian markets retreated with China's main stock indexes posting their worst day since last December, as investors await fresh evidence of a sustainable recovery in the world's second-largest economy, said Reuters.

On the currency front, the pound sterling rose for the third day running against the dollar on Friday for the first time since mid-January, drawing confidence from signs some at the Bank of England may be leaning toward a rise in interest rates to support the currency, Reuters reported.

The ringgit rose 0.06% against the US dollar to 4.4355 from 4.4383. However, the local unit fell against the pound, sliding 1.17% to 5.5042 from 5.4403, weakened 0.26% against the Singapore dollar to 3.1676 from 3.1594 and lost 0.67% against the Euro to 4.7857 from 4.7539.

Finance and bank stocks were the top gainers. Public Bank rose 30 sen to RM20.18 and pushed the KLCI up 1.98 points, CIMB added six sen to RM5.65 and Maybank five sen higher at RM8.90 while AmBank gained two sen to RM4.87 and RHB Bank edged up one sen to RM5.26.

Aeon Credit was the top gainer of the day, up 70 sen to RM16.50 while HLFG added 16 sen to RM16.16. Insurer Allianz added 28 sen to RM11.68.

US light crude oil climbed 19 sen to US$48.94 and Brent 14 sen higher at US$51.88. Petronas Chemicals rose 15 sen to RM7.43 and nudged the KLCI up 2.04 points, Petronas Dagangan added 22 sen to RM23.84 but Petronas Gas lost two sen to RM19.78.

As for consumer stocks, Nestle rose 22 sen to RM76.82, BAT added 20 sen to RM47.90.

Crude palm oil for third month delivery was flat at RM2,796 per tonne. United Plantations rose 20 sen to RM28.30, KL Kepong six sen to RM24.76, Sime Darby and PPB Group four sen higher at RM9.34 and RM16.82.
However, TAHPS and Far East lost 10 sen each to RM6.40 and RM8.70 while IOI Corp shed one sen to RM4.69

Axiata was the top mover among the KLCI stocks, up 16 sen to RM4.97 and nudging the index up 2.44 points. Digi was flat at RM5.15, Telekom lost four sen to RM6.32 and Maxis shed seven sen to RM6.33. Time dotCom jumped 17 sen to RM8.70.

Dataprep surged 16.5 sen to 43.5 sen with 173 million shares done.

IHH Healthcare fell nine sen to RM5.98 and erased 1.26 points from the KLCI, MISC lost 11 sen to RM7.34. Genting Bhd was down six sen to RM9.79 but Genting Malaysia gained five sen to RM5.47.

Rohas-Euco made a dismal start, skidding 23 sen to 89 sen with 6.33 million shares. It took over Tecnic Group and assumed its listing status. The paid-up jumped from 40 million shares to 400 million shares after the takeover.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/17/trading-value-on-bursa-surges-to-rm5b-banks-advance/#KhTTu28XubdqbJMc.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 20, 2017, 06:37:47 AM




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Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Saturday, 18 March 2017
Credit Suisse: It’s time to invest in Malaysia
BY AFIQ ISA

 
PETALING JAYA: Credit Suisse (CS) said it is now time for investors to put their funds into Malaysian stocks as current valuations indicate that local equities are poised for a strong recovery.

Malaysia has underperformed its peers in the emerging markets due to several reasons, among them being the downward pressure on the ringgit as well the selldown in heavyweight sectors such as banks.

But now, according to CS in an extensive report yesterday, while the 34% decline in Malaysian equities on a dollar-adjusted basis over the past 45 months was warranted, the market bottom may be close at hand.

Calling it as “the ultimate contrarian trade”, the research house outlined 10 reasons to be bullish (see table).

Among them is that Malaysia’s GDP growth may see further upside, thanks to a rebound in commodities. Additionally, the government may have more leeway to increase spending, given its conservative average crude oil price forecast of US$48 per barrel, CS said.

“We believe that the recent stability in the commodity complex we have witnessed the last of the downgrades to near term growth expectations.

“We now expect a pick-up in growth to 4.5% this year (above consensus expectations of 4.3%), driven by public infrastructure projects, commodity-related investments and a boost to rural income from the recovery in rubber prices,” it explained.

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/18/credit-suisse-its-time-to-invest-in-malaysia/~/media/6e9e3c3809c94d24a57732dee2661843.ashx?h=432&w=620



Another reason is on the improvement of earnings dynamics among Malaysian corporates. CS points out that at the sector level, the recovery in earnings revisions is led by the energy and mining space.

Additionally, among the larger sectors, consumer discretionary and staples have recovered sharply well into net positive territory with industrials and financials improving to at least neutral levels.

Another key catalyst for the markets is the attractiveness of the ringgit at present levels after significant devaluation.

Although Malaysia’s 15-year trend of a weaker ringgit in real effective exchange rate (REER) terms is justified by the steady erosion of its share of global exports, the 18% REER devaluation over the past three years appears severely overdone, given the relatively modest decline in export share over this period, CS noted.

One prominent beneficiary from the repair in the macro environment appears to be the banking sector, which is a heavyweight component for the FBM KLCI.

The research house said that private sector credit growth had just bounced off a 13-year low at 5.6% year-on-year in January compared to 4.2% in September last year.

“Encouragingly, deposit growth recovering back into positive territory should serve to moderate the pick-up in the loan-to-deposit ratio, which is currently at elevated levels which typically dampens credit extension,” it said.

In light of its market recommendation, CS has picked its top 10 stocks which offer superior dividends and free cashflow yields.

The companies are Malayan Banking Bhd, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Axiata Group Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, Astro Malaysia Holdings Bhd, British American Tobacco (M) Bhd, IJM Corp Bhd, Gamuda Bhd, Alliance Financial Group Bhd and Malakoff Corp Bhd.

To date, the FBM KLCI is already up by 6.3%. Yesterday saw the largest one-day turnover in stocks since May 2016 with total trading volume of 4.98 billion shares valued at RM5.04


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/18/credit-suisse-its-time-to-invest-in-malaysia/#cX703mPdJM9LtZFb.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 21, 2017, 07:41:06 AM
On Friday, the buying turned into a frenzy with foreigners acquired a massive RM816mil, the highest since May 7, 2013, two days after the GE13.

Foreign investors simply tutup mata and wallop all our chip shares like nobody business !!!

Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 21, 2017, 03:10:57 PM



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Maybank IB: KLCI seen topping 1,800pts
By Chester Tay / theedgemarkets.com   | March 21, 2017 : 2:52 PM MYT   
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SINGAPORE (March 21): Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) said the FBM KLCI may breach the 1,800-point level by end of this year on foreign buying of Malaysian shares.

Maybank IB chief executive officer Datuk John Chong said foreign demand for Malaysian shares was based on fundamentals as investors saw value in the country's equities market.

"Year to date, foreign investors recorded a net buy of RM3.1 billion in the Malaysian equity market. This is driven by the fundamentals. There is a lot of upside in Malaysia and the region. People are seeing value; I don't think this is hot money.

"I do not discount the possibility that it (KLCI) would hit the 1,800-point target faster, because there is a renewed interest in the Malaysian equity market. In fact, not just Malaysia, momentum in Southeast Asia [has] picked up (in the) last three months," Chong said.

At Bursa Malaysia today, the KLCI rose 2.97 points to 1,752.38 points at 2:34pm.

Chong was speaking at a press conference today in conjunction with the two-day Invest ASEAN 2017: Singapore event. The event ends tomorrow.

Today, Chong said Maybank IB has a "healthy" pipeline of fundraising deals this year. He said some 30% of the deals were deferred from last year.

According to him, while the remaining 70% of the deals were new entities, he did not discount the possibility that a portion of the new deals would be postpone till next year.

"I cannot tell you exactly what these deals are, but they are from all sides of the primary and secondary markets. They are driven by trade recovery, higher commodity prices and improved global electronics demand.

"We are in the equity market, and we see there are a lot of fundraising demand for infrastructure projects. We also see opportunities in places like Vietnam and Indochina region, where the governments are working on some privatisation of their SOE (state-owned entity), so there may be some project financing opportunities," he said.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 21, 2017, 05:38:23 PM
SINGAPORE (March 21): Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB) said the FBM KLCI may breach the 1,800-point level by end of this year on foreign buying of Malaysian shares.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 22, 2017, 09:04:09 AM



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Wednesday, 22 March 2017
Bursa warns of stock market manipulation with pump and dump schemes
BY P. ARUNA

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2015/09/09/05/19/bursa9sept15/bursamalaysiadec2015.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=86961D799EFB70EDA9D257546C4B54316DC77436
In a circular to the heads of dealing and compliance of stockbroking companies, the stock exchange said it discovered certain groups of market participants using the social media and Internet trading to carry out manipulative activities, which included pump and dump schemes.  The circular was exhaustive on how the manipulation was being carried out.
In a circular to the heads of dealing and compliance of stockbroking companies, the stock exchange said it discovered certain groups of market participants using the social media and Internet trading to carry out manipulative activities, which included pump and dump schemes. The circular was exhaustive on how the manipulation was being carried out.
 
PETALING JAYA: Just when the market has picked up steam with trading in stocks hitting high volumes, Bursa Malaysia has detected “pump and dump” activities circulating through the social media.

In a circular to the heads of dealing and compliance of stockbroking companies, the stock exchange said it discovered certain groups of market participants using the social media and Internet trading to carry out manipulative activities, which included pump and dump schemes.

The circular was exhaustive on how the manipulation was being carried out.

It said the operators of the pump and dump schemes, that are transacted through the social media, would typically begin by spreading false or misleading statements, news or rumours in investor blogs, chat groups such as Telegram, WhatsApp, WeChat, electronic bulletin board postings or online newsletters to entice or recommend unsuspecting investors to buy stocks which are touted as “hot” picks.


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This, it said, was to facilitate the disposal of the stocks that they had accumulated earlier at higher prices.

“We believe that in this Internet age, it is extremely easy to reach out to people through the social media and the availability of the new cyber-tools to reach investors has given rise to unscrupulous operators of pump and dump,” said Bursa in its industry communication letter.

Bursa said operators would often post their own researches, make unsubstantiated statements, promotional news or hearsay to gain the confidence of their followers and lure them into following their stock tips.

“The false or misleading statements regarding the stock are spread while the operators are accumulating large quantities of it or have it accumulated earlier at a much lower price,” said the stock exchange.

Bursa said the operators were persuasive in the chatrooms to entice people into buying the stock with the end goal of running up the prices.

The stock exchange spelt out other methods used to generate interest, which included order stacking or layering, slicing of orders into small quantities to give an appearance of active trading as well as aggressive buying and selling.

“These parties could have multiple accounts opened and operated at a broker or brokers, as well as online trades in creating a hype of activities to attract others to come into the market,” it said.

When the stock price is pumped up due to an increase in trading volume, the operators behind the schemes will sell their stocks before the hype stops.

“The exit of the operators will cause the price to plummet while innocent investors who bought high and sold low will lose their money,” it added.

Bursa said it wanted to share the observations with brokers so that they become aware of such activities and alert their representatives and clients to exercise caution and diligence.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/22/bursa-warns-of-pump-and-dump-schemes/#7EJjwJ2pgde2MfvI.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 24, 2017, 07:54:23 PM
The surge has also pushed up the 12-month price-to-earnings ratio on the small-caps gauge to 11.6, near the highest level since August 2014. That’s still well below the ratio of 16.2 for the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, which comprises the biggest 30 companies.

The small caps are still very chip when compared with the KLCI stocks.

So, eat all the small caps U can.  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 25, 2017, 06:44:18 AM



Photographer: Sanjit Das/Bloomberg
Malaysian Small Caps Are Too Hot to Handle for Top Manager
by En Han Choong
March 24, 2017, 5:00 AM GMT+8
March 24, 2017, 5:10 PM GMT+8
Index of smaller companies has surged 18% since end-November
Government plans to support sector coinciding with EM rally
The surge in Malaysian small caps over the last few months may be reason enough to avoid buying many of them now.

So says Gan Eng Peng, head of equities at Affin Hwang Asset Management Bhd., citing an 18 percent gain in the the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Small Cap Index since November. Stocks in the measure are up more than twice as much as those in the large-cap benchmark, as a government plan to support the sector coincided with an emerging-market rally.

“We’re always on the lookout for ideas which are fresh, turnaround situations and deep value plays,” said Gan, whose Asia ex-Japan small and midcap fund has returned 34 percent over the past year to beat 96 percent of its peers. “With the recent run in the index, this is getting harder to come by.”

Prime Minister Najib Razak’s budget pledge in October to establish a 3 billion ringgit ($678 million) fund to invest in small and mid-sized companies and promote research on them stirred interest in the sector. Malaysia as a whole has benefited as faster economic growth and rebounding commodity prices helped push developing-nation equities to the highest levels since mid-2015.


Foreign investors are returning, pumping $1 billion into Malaysian stocks so far this year, following a three-year run of outflows in which they pulled $7.7 billion. Credit Suisse Group AG went overweight on the country’s stocks last week, calling it “perhaps the most unloved mainstream emerging market.” The Swiss lender cited positive earnings revisions, economic forecasts and an undervalued ringgit among reasons for its optimism.

The small-cap gauge dropped 0.2 percent in Kuala Lumpur on Friday, retreating from its highest close since April 2015 on Thursday, while the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index declined 0.1 percent.

Seed money for the small-cap fund will come from government-linked companies, according to the budget. Some smaller companies aren’t receiving the attention they deserve, and an independent research scheme will start next quarter to address this, Ranjit Ajit Singh, chairman of the Securities Commission Malaysia, said at a March 9 briefing.

Boosting Demand

While the 3 billion ringgit fund isn’t that big, the government’s willingness to support the sector is improving sentiment and boosting demand from institutional investors, said Ang Kok Heng, chief investment officer at Phillip Capital Management Bhd. in Kuala Lumpur.


While this has pushed some small and midcaps “beyond our targets,” there are still good buys out there, said Ang. These include JAKS Resources Bhd., Gabungan AQRS Bhd., Ekovest Bhd. and ViTrox Corp. Bhd., he said.

The surge has also pushed up the 12-month price-to-earnings ratio on the small-caps gauge to 11.6, near the highest level since August 2014. That’s still well below the ratio of 16.2 for the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, which comprises the biggest 30 companies.

The government plans are contributing to the small-cap surge, along with the earnings turnaround and the cheap ringgit, said Jason Chong, chief investment officer at Manulife Asset Management’s Malaysian unit in Kuala Lumpur.

While the planned fund and research scheme might aid small caps in the future, it’s not driving gains at the moment, said Affin Hwang Asset’s Gan. Small caps are more sensitive to growth expectations and are also benefiting from “the global return of animal spirits in risk markets,” he said.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 25, 2017, 06:49:43 AM



Friday, March 24, 2017
The run up of a penny stock
The recent run up of some of the penny stocks is just an opportunity for the owners to get out. The below is one of them. All of them are sales and in very large quantities - more than 10% of the total stocks available (done in a day or two) - can one imagine?



The link here, is just one of the example. For any speculators (who gambles), one should wish that he/she followed the right wave. Otherwise, there would not be any more comebacks as these are stocks which the controlling shareholders do not want at all. In fact, they know they do not want the warrants especially to be converted. They just want to dump it out. Even if it is converted, one do not know how they are going to use the money raised.

If there is a second wave, it is really luck. I would not want to touch these in all scenarios although can be tempting.

Disclaimer: Not all penny stocks are bad, but the above is not one of the good ones.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 25, 2017, 08:04:13 AM



涨势过头宜警惕
避开小型股免烧伤手
2155点看 2017年3月24日
(吉隆坡24日讯)近月来,股市走势不俗,尤其是中小型股,但业界警愓说,部分已涨过了头,散户还是避免太激进为妙,以免烧伤手!

自政府宣布出手推动中小型上市公司后,小型股作价在近几个月掀起强劲涨势;富时小型股项指数自去年11月至今已经上涨18%。


艾芬黄氏资产管理有限公司股票主管颜英鹏(译音)指,随着政府计划扶持小型股,恰逢新兴市场走高,该指数上涨比大型股指数超出2倍!

好股难求

颜英鹏说:“我们一直都在寻找新的、公司转亏为盈、以及价值很高的股票。不过,随着小型股项指数近期的涨势汹涌,也使到我们越来越难买到合适的股票。”

随着股价飙涨,亦带动小型股项指数12个月的本益比上升至11.6倍,接近自2014年8月以来最高水平。

不过,这仍低于富时隆综指的16.2倍。

今日闭市时,小型股项指数收在1万6950.05点,全日下跌24.90点或0.15%;而综指则报1745.75点,下滑1.25点或0.07%。



官联30亿银弹助攻

首相拿督斯里纳吉在公布2017年财政预算案时指,官联投资公司将投放30亿令吉在有潜能的中小型股。

政府分配这笔30亿令吉的特别基金,给拥有证监会执照的基金经理投资,但锁定在中小型股。

在3月9日的汇报会上,证监会主席拿督斯里兰奇阿吉星指,部分较小型公司没有受到应得的关注,所以将会有一个独立研究方案从下一个季度开始解决这个问题。

但颜英鹏则认为,30亿令吉的基金和研究方案未来有助小型股,但现在不是推动小型股走高的因素。

“小型股对增长预期较敏感,同时,也从全球风险市场的活力回归下受惠。”


洪国兴

洪国兴:改善投资情绪

辉立资产管理公司投资总监洪国兴指,虽然30亿令吉的基金规模不大,但政府愿意扶持中小型股,有助改善投资情绪和推高机构投资者的需求。

“虽然这促使部分中小型股超越我们的目标价位,但市场上还是有值得买进的股票。”

他点出,这包括捷硕资源(JAKS,4723,主板建筑股)、家盟吉(GBGAQRS,5226,主板贸服股)、怡克伟士(EKOVEST,8877, 主板建筑股)和伟特机构(VITROX,0097,主板科技股)。

另外,宏利资产管理服务投资总监张顺明则指,政府的计划、净利好转和令吉贬值,皆成为小型股上涨的推手。


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上则新闻
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Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 25, 2017, 09:47:30 AM
"Malaysian Small Caps Are Too Hot to Handle for Top Manager"

No wori, our DR KIM can handle the small caps like child play if top manager cant do it.  :D :D :D
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 25, 2017, 09:52:13 AM
Disclaimer: Not all penny stocks are bad, but the above is not one of the good ones.

Korrect, Got some good ones also, just no play those penni stocks which are made in China.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 25, 2017, 10:14:28 AM
BURSA Malaysia has underperformed for the past three years, largely due to the outflow of foreign funds.

The foreign funds started coming back five weeks ago and subsequently trading volumes on the exchange picked up. Bursa saw its overall turnover hitting a staggering 6.01 billion shares on March 20 – the biggest one-day volume since August 2014. Total turnover was valued at RM3bil.

outflow of foreign funds = three years

started coming back = 5 weeks.

Verdict : much, much more foreign funds expected to come back.  :clap: :clap: :clap: :dancing:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: DR KIM on March 25, 2017, 01:25:33 PM
BURSA Malaysia has underperformed for the past three years, largely due to the outflow of foreign funds.

The foreign funds started coming back five weeks ago and subsequently trading volumes on the exchange picked up. Bursa saw its overall turnover hitting a staggering 6.01 billion shares on March 20 – the biggest one-day volume since August 2014. Total turnover was valued at RM3bil.

outflow of foreign funds = three years

started coming back = 5 weeks.

Verdict : much, much more foreign funds expected to come back.  :clap: :clap: :clap: :dancing:

yesss.....with volume  around  4 - 5  billions unit  daily  -  really  a  super bull in the making
but  now  only at the early  stage  >>  stage  1  bull ...

Not   late  to join the Band wagon ( bull market )......but  if  prefer  the chicken_feed  FD @  Fixed Deposit  3 %  a  year  , or peanut  :headbang: 6  %  ASM . ASB we  can't  help your  -  stick to your  snail  phased :phew: :sweat: peanut  return  :sweat: :'(

###  with dow  jone  steadily above  20,000 +  ,,,,
this  is  an early stage of  super bull to BURSA @ KLSE !...huartt  arrrrr :cash: :beer: :cocktail: :party:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 25, 2017, 01:48:41 PM



What’s cooking in penny stocks
TheStarSat, Mar 25, 2017

Active market: Investors monitoring shares index at a private stock market gallery in Kuala Lumpur. Bursa Malaysia saw overall turnover hitting a staggering 6.01 billion shares on March 20 – the biggest one-day volume since August 2014.
Active market: Investors monitoring shares index at a private stock market gallery in Kuala Lumpur. Bursa Malaysia saw overall turnover hitting a staggering 6.01 billion shares on March 20 – the biggest one-day volume since August 2014.

BURSA Malaysia has underperformed for the past three years, largely due to the outflow of foreign funds.

The foreign funds started coming back five weeks ago and subsequently trading volumes on the exchange picked up. Bursa saw its overall turnover hitting a staggering 6.01 billion shares on March 20 – the biggest one-day volume since August 2014. Total turnover was valued at RM3bil.

Unfortunately though, the good always attracts the depraved. Sure, foreign funds are here, but so are the much dreaded “pump and dump” operators.

The presence of the operators who churned out the volume was so immense that it prompted Bursa to come out with a warning to brokerages to not facilitate such activities. The exchange particularly mentioned about social websites that promote these stocks.

So just what are these “pump and dump” operators all about?

Well, they are perhaps a group of people who operate on creating hype and building up fevered excitement around a (usually) small company, where insiders can subsequently unload overvalued or worthless shares to unsuspecting investors.

So let’s say these pump and dumpers identify a cheap stock. Typically it has no earnings but rides on offering big “potential” for upside.

What they do is to cheaply acquire a large position in a company. Then they begin informing the public about this company via e-mail and Internet stock sites. They also start trading shares of these companies, creating volume and upside. Combined together, these activities create the perception that something big is brewing in that fledgling little company.

So the share price skyrockets, doubles, triples or quadruples even. Along the way, the operators dump their stock and make a fat profit for themselves.

That is more or less the modus operandi.

In the last few weeks, stocks that have hogged the volumes and gainers list are those in the sectors of construction, property, technology, logistics and e-commerce. The themes play out every few days before rotating to the next sector.

Brokers say it is more likely that the pump and dumpers are in some of the fintech stocks.

“The majority of the construction stocks, all said and done, have fundamentals and orderbooks to back their earnings. Furthermore, there are real construction contracts to be dished out this year and next.

“The same cannot be said for the tech stocks, where a lot of it is going up purely on potential and speculation,” said one broker.

Caution by the authorities

The authorities are vigilant of the current situation, and over the week, cautioned that “pump and dump” activities are circulating through the social media.

In a circular to the heads of dealing and compliance of stockbroking companies, the stock exchange said it discovered certain groups of market participants using the social media and Internet trading to carry out manipulative activities, which included “pump and dump” schemes.

The circular said that the operators of the “pump and dump” schemes, which are transacted through the social media, would typically begin by spreading false or misleading statements, news or rumours in investor blogs, chat groups – such as Telegram, WhatsApp, WeChat, electronic bulletin board postings or online newsletters – to entice or recommend unsuspecting investors to buy stocks which are touted as “hot” picks.

This, it said, was to facilitate the disposal of the stocks that they had accumulated earlier at higher prices.

Bursa said operators would often post their own researches and make unsubstantiated statements, promotional news or hearsay to gain the confidence of their followers and lure them into following their stock tips.

Bursa said the operators were persuasive in the chatrooms to entice people into buying the stock with the end goal of running up the prices.

When the stock price is pumped up due to an increase in trading volume, the operators behind the schemes will sell their stocks before the hype stops.

“The exit of the operators will cause the price to plummet while innocent investors who bought high and sold low will lose their money,” it added.

Bursa said it wanted to share the observations with brokers so that they become aware of such activities and alert their representatives and clients to exercise caution and diligence.

So what’s cooking?

Now, the latest batch of stocks being “peddled” by financial blogs and social media are those perceived to be beneficiaries of the Digital Free Trade Zone (DTFZ) where Jack Ma’s Alibaba will have a presence.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak and Ma launched the DFTZ on Wednesday, which is expected to generate trade worth US$65bil (RM286bil) by 2025. It is expected to double the export growth of small and medium businesses by 2025 and create 60,000 jobs. It will also create a new Kuala Lumpur Internet City to house 10,000 Internet firms and 25,000 tech professionals in Bandar Malaysia.

Using these big numbers and the China factor, blogs have started talking up the likes of Dataprep Holdings Bhd, GHL Systems Bhd, Rev Asia Bhd, Cuscapi Bhd, Malaysia Airport Holdings Bhd, AirAsia Bhd, DKSH Bhd and Tropicana Bhd, among others.

The share price of Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) going up isn’t all surprising.

MAHB will be teaming up with Cainiao Network, the logistics arm of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group where both companies will develop a regional e-commerce and logistics hub in the KL International Airport (KLIA) Aeropolis, as part of the DFTZ initiative.

This is not to say that all the thematic stocks that have moved up sharply are absent of fundamentals, but certainly the element of speculation is huge.

One of the sharpest rise was seen in business process outsourcing solutions provider Efficient-E Solutions. Its share price went up 72.41% or 21 sen in one day to 50 sen on Thursday. It was also the most actively traded counter of the day with 208.04 million shares being traded.

While it is true that Singapore Post Ltd is the largest shareholder in Efficient E-Solutions with a 20.8% stake, and in turn, Alibaba Investment Ltd has a 14.41% stake in Singapore Post, nonetheless fundamentally wise, nothing appears to be happening within the company.

It remains a loss-making company, posting RM10mil loss for its financial year ended Dec 31, 2016 from a previous net profit of RM44mil.

Meanwhile, companies like Cuscapi Bhd and Rev Asia Bhd are riding on the DFTZ wave by virtue of connections.

For Rev Asia, the link is through its parent company Catcha Group, which has been chosen to be the master developer for the Kuala Lumpur Internet City, a component of DFTZ.

It is also uncertain how software solutions provider Cuscapi, which is primarily involved in business management solutions software for the food and beverage industry, will benefit from DTFZ.

The company, however, posted a widening loss of RM36mil for financial year 2016, from a loss of RM24mil the year before.

Perhaps the most drastic of all moves are that of little Dataprep, which has seen its share price run from 25.5 sen on March 15 to reach its high of 65 sen on March 23. It has also been on a phenomenal run. At its last price of 62 sen, the stock still only has a market capitalisation of RM259.2mil.

The main reason being touted for Dataprep’s rise is because its owner, Tan Sri Lim Chee Wah, the son of Genting founder Lim Goh Tong, is a major shareholder of the 20 billion yuan (RM13bil) Genting Secret Garden Resorts project in China.

Genting Secret Garden Resort is an all-season holiday and skiing resort, which will be an important venue for the Beijing Winter Olympics 2022. It is located at the outskirts of Zhangjiakou city in Hebei Province.

The price is rising because Dataprep is Lim’s only Malaysian-listed company. His other private vehicle, VXL Group, is also a major investor in Secret Garden. There are now rumblings in the blogs that there could be a potential transfer of assets and Dataprep could be a beneficiary.
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 25, 2017, 02:01:37 PM


JUST SHARING AN OLD ARTICLE....



Saturday, 23 August 2014 | MYT 12:00 AM
Don’t be fooled by the high trading volume
BY M.SHANMUGAM . . . THE ALTERNATIVE VIEW

 
LAST week a broker got an order from a client who has not bought or sold shares for the past three years. The client, who is retired, placed an order to buy shares in Sumatec Resources Bhd at 61 sen.

Sumatec was among the few stocks that saw heavy volume being traded last week. The broker advised the elderly man that he should not be taken in by the euphoria that the market had seen last week, with trading volumes hitting record high of more than 7.6 billion shares in a single day.

Apart from Sumatec, the bulk of the shares were traded in two other stocks, namely, Globaltec Formation Bhd and PDZ Holdings Bhd. The three stocks have a combined market capitalisation of RM2.6bil, which is a fraction of the entire market capitalisation of Bursa Malaysia that stood at RM1.76 trillion yesterday.

The elderly retail investor did not listen to the broker’s advice. Sumatec ended at 45 sen that day. Now, the retail investor has to wait for Sumatec to recover or lose a few thousand ringgit if he chooses to sell.

The large trading volumes of stocks should not be a reason for retail investors to invest in stocks. Fundamentals should be the primary reason. The large volume is a game for a select group of market participants called proprietary day traders, or better known as stockists.

There are about 80 of them attached to various brokerages in Bursa Malaysia. Their job is to trade for the brokerage as principals. They don’t have any clients. The stockists can buy and sell as much as they want in a day. There is no limit imposed.

They are not imposed any brokerage fees but have to pay stamp duty and clearing fee to Bursa Malaysia based on the value of trades done. The duty is capped at RM250 or less, while the clearing fee is minimal.

A brokerage will normally place their stockists in a room where they conduct their buying and selling operations with minimum disruptions. Even phone calls are restricted.

The stockists can short-sell stocks without having the shares in hand. But they have to cover their positions by buying back from the market before the end of the day’s trading.

The profit from buying and selling are shared between the brokerage and the stockist. Normally 60% goes to the brokerage and the trader gets 40%. However, an “ace stockist” can command up to 90% of the profits. But the stockist has to absorb all the losses.

Normally, the brokerage will hold the profits of the stockist and pay out only after a year. An ace stockist can earn RM10mil or more a year by just being a principal stockist for the company.

But there are limitations to what a stockist can do to generate the volume of stocks. They generally shy away from stocks that are more than RM1 and that have a small paid-up capital.

Apart from having to incur a higher clearing fee, normally stocks that are held tightly tend not to have enough shares in the market to generate the volume without causing a substantial rise in the price.

The typical targets for a stockist are stocks that are priced at less than RM1 and that have a large share capital. For instance, Globletec Formation, which is an amalgamation of three stocks that were involved in manufacturing automotive components, has a capital of more than 5 billion shares.

Some companies like to see the activities of the stockist because it supposedly adds excitement to the market, not to mention to the stock as well.

But there is also a view that the stockists hold an unfair advantage over the normal investors because they can short a stock or take long positions several bids higher.

This allows a few stockists to “gang up” and deliberately cause a panic sell-down of a particular stock.

In jurisdictions such as Hong Kong, while short-selling is allowed, there are rules that prevent deliberate sell-downs. Anyway, this volume game of trading in stocks is not for retailers. It is only for the traders of the market where the risk and returns are high.

For retailers, ultimately value investing is the game. Value stocks may not have the kind of volume one would like to see nor would it be cheap. But it attracts the kind of investors who generally take a long-long term view.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc, the flagship listed entity of Warren Buffett crossed the US$205,000 per share mark last week, making it the highest-priced stock on the New York Stock Exchange. Despite calls from shareholders to split the stock, Buffett has stayed firm in refusing to undertake such an exercise on the grounds that it would attract a “different breed” of investors that he does not fancy.

A hard-to-trade stock encourages investors to take a long-term view and cuts out those trading on emotions. This is something retail investors should take heed of. The volume game in trading stocks is not their cup of tea. It is only for a select few.


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2014/08/23/dont-be-fooled-by-the-high-trading-volume/#02MQzZjmP3Mkdhd3.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on March 25, 2017, 02:21:21 PM
but if buy good share like aeoncredit yesterday ah....oso kena dump wo....... who dump geh? ahbah ah? giv good news then dump? ahbah...i know u buy at rm13.20....so low...what ur intention? u invest or wait to dump?  :shake:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on March 25, 2017, 02:28:15 PM
ahbah very bad one...keep ask pple buy...say got hot marney from foreign fund rollin in like crazy......hell marney ah? foreign fund will goreng pantee sock not? some pantee sock very good one...until genting boss lim kee hua oso pop.eye wana invest n grow it..... later we all read so good news but dont let us buy.....how to untong ah? watch only ah? all becoz ahbah lar....kaciau kaciau...interfere market good luck..... :headbang:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: CurryLee on March 25, 2017, 02:29:55 PM
ahbah not scared one...most oso go back ICU stay few day ma....he ady used to it.....right ahbah?
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 25, 2017, 02:41:40 PM
Be gridi when CurryLee is scare  :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :cash: :cash: :cash:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 25, 2017, 03:52:56 PM
BANK Negara Malaysia has projected the economy to grow by between 4.3 and 4.8 per cent this year.  :clap: :clap: :clap: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 27, 2017, 02:06:30 PM



Monday, 27 March 2017 | MYT 1:02 PM
Foreign buying on Bursa at net RM3.23b in March so far
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/12/04/09/04/~-hq.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=6582F5EB8CAEEEA478F4E154D906C12FF8C357B9

 
KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign funds remained net buyers on Bursa Malaysia in week ended March 24 at RM1.08bil, which was the second consecutive week, according to MIDF Equities Research.

It said on Monday the foreign liquidity tide on Bursa Malaysia had continued to remain elevated for the second week running. Up to March 24, foreign buying was net RM3.23bil.

“With five trading days left in the month, it is already higher than RM956mil in February and is the highest since March 2016,” it said. Year-to-date, net foreign buying on Bursa was RM4.287bil.

MIDF Research said the strong foreign buying momentum was reflected by the fact that when equity markets around the globe retraced significantly on Wednesday, foreigners continued to pick up Malaysian shares.

Recall that the global retracement on Wednesday was spurred by concerns arising ahead of the Republican’s healthcare vote on Thursday which was eventually withdrawn.

The research house pointed out foreign participation remained at an elevated level. The foreign average daily trade value (ADTV) was RM1.26bil, the second highest this year.

“The strong foreign buying momentum continues to enable local investors to lighten their position. Year-to-date, local fund managers have disposed of RM3.86bil net.

“The retail market remained vibrant as retail ADTV increased by 1.3% to RM1.26bil compared to the week before, marking the third week in a row it exceeded RM1bil,” said MIDF Research.

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/27/foreign-buying-on-bursa-at-net-rm3pt23b-in-march-so-far/#pLiuVeGJQC0AugIS.99
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: ahbah on March 27, 2017, 02:37:18 PM
KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign funds remained net buyers on Bursa Malaysia in week ended March 24 at RM1.08bil, which was the second consecutive week, according to MIDF Equities Research.

I oredi told U so.

Foreign funds are the hungry ghosts of our Bursa now, eating our chip shares non stop.

Join in fast. If we join in late, we will onli eat the bones left behind by the foreign funds.  :'( :'( :'(
Title: Re: TIME TO INVEST IN BURSA ??
Post by: king on March 27, 2017, 05:59:51 PM



Monday, 27 March 2017
Overvalued stocks – a call for vigilance
BY YAP LENG KUEN

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/03/27/01/37/stocks-copy.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=4948BFCDDB21F4E15B40E347D936FDB97D8124B6
There are still value buys on Bursa Malaysia but the selection is diminishing. “This makes it more likely for mistakes in stock selection to occur,” said Pong.
There are still value buys on Bursa Malaysia but the selection is diminishing. “This makes it more likely for mistakes in stock selection to occur,” said Pong.
 
SHOULD it be taken as a warning sign that world stocks are seen as most overvalued in 17 years, as revealed by a Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) survey of fund managers?

Although emerging markets are still seen as undervalued by a large proportion of investors polled, the dominance of major market movements may cast a pall on trading.

On Bursa Malaysia, robust trading with the main index hitting 1,750 points on high volume calls for vigilance.

“Much more caution in stock selection is necessary currently than at the start of the year,” said Pong Teng Siew, head of research, Inter-Pacific Securities.

The main index has raced past the stiff resistance of 1,730 points to breach 1,750 and is said to be poised for further advances as foreign money pours into the market after a dormancy of three years.

There are still value buys on Bursa Malaysia but the selection is diminishing. “This makes it more likely for mistakes in stock selection to occur,” said Pong.

“Trading has become riskier since last week when volume traded reached six billion shares. A near-term peak of sorts may be around the corner.

“However, given the proximity to the quarter close, I think it will gyrate around the 1,750 zone before actually easing off, unless volume traded climbs to seven and then eight billion shares.

“That will allow stocks to rally to even higher levels than last week,” said Pong.

Investors are advised to equip themselves with charting tools which add another dimension to visualising the timing aspects of trading.

“While ‘easy money’ has been made, given the positive change in sentiment, gradual improvement in global and domestic economic conditions and stabilisation in commodity prices, among others, should translate into healthier prospects for investors.

“Value investing will always be value investing so long as one is aware of associated risks and time horizons.

“A relatively ‘hotter’ market like this just makes it easier to exit. But if one has different investment objectives, any time is an opportune time,” said Ching Weng Jin, head of research, Public Investment Bank.

US market most overvalued

Regionally, the US stockmarket is the most overvalued, according to 81% of respondents in the BAML poll of investors managing US$592bil worldwide, said The Sydney Morning Herald (SMH).

A net 44% think emerging market stocks are undervalued, while a net 23% say the same about eurozone equities, according to the survey conducted from March 10-16, when Wall Street’s recent string of record highs had slowed down and the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates.

“Risks include Trumpnomics falling short of expectations, US Fed rate hikes turning out to be more aggressive than guidance and unexpected event shocks or policy missteps that derail global growth,” said Lee Heng Guie, executive director, Socio Economic Research Centre.

“Much higher US interest rates inflicted by an accelerating risk of inflation will push up bond yields, making equities less compelling as an asset class,” said Lee.

But flight from equities not seen yet.

The biggest risk to the equity bull market will come from higher interest rates, said 35% of BAML respondents, rather than weak company earnings (21%).

“A net 36% said the 10-year US Treasury yield would have to rise above 3.5% before a bear market in stocks ensues.

“The yield has risen sharply since mid-2016 but has struggled to rise above 2.5%. The last time it was higher than 3.5% was six years ago,” reported The SMH.

The Fed raised rates recently and plans to tighten further this year.

“But investors are sceptical that growth and inflation will be strong enough to warrant a sustained series of hikes and longer dated yields have slipped as a result,” said The SMH.

Emerging markets trade of a decade?

Stocks in emerging markets cost more than when he first made the call in February last year, but they remain an “enormous bargain”, said Christopher Brightman, chief investment officer (CIO) at Research Affiliates, a sub-adviser to money managers including Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco), Invesco Ltd and Charles Schwab Corp.

Local-currency bonds in developing nations are also seen as trading at a discount, especially those in Turkey, Malaysia, Indonesia and Mexico.

Emerging markets offer an average yield of 2% after accounting for inflation and offer an additional 2% in pick-up from currency appreciation – attractive numbers compared with next-to-zero yield and an expensive currency in the US, said Bloomberg, quoting Brightman.

Bull market still waiting on Wall Street

“The death of the Republican healthcare reform may not prove to be the knife to the heart of the bull market some had feared,