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Other Investments => Global Markets => Topic started by: king on March 16, 2016, 08:52:27 AM

Title: CHINA
Post by: king on March 16, 2016, 08:52:27 AM



CHINA’S NUMBERS DON’T MATCH
Our Reporter | March 16, 2016
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From :Jake Van Der Kamp
Here is the stunning stat for the day. At the peak of its cement production in 2014, China turned out more cement in just two years than the United States had produced in the previous century.

There is certainly an argument for more cement production in China than in the US, which has largely built its cities and its transport infrastructure. China is still in the process of doing so. Its cement requirements are thus proportionately much greater.

True, but 30 times as great with as much cement production in two years as the US recorded in 100 years? That’s pushing things.

And while economic growth in China is faster than in the US, much of it represents just this pouring of cement. Fixed capital formation accounts for 45 per cent of gross domestic product, about twice the average of the rest of Asia, and higher multiples yet than the rest of the world.

This sort of excess crashes if demand turns sour. And it could take a lot more with it than just cement and steel plants
The story is told in many more sectors than just cement. China’s steel production is topping out but is still running at five times the rate of all 28 countries in the European Union combined and almost 10 times steel production in the US.

This steel is still being used but there are reasons to doubt the continued demand. Car production last year of 12 million units, for instance, was three times the equivalent of domestic production in the US.

Yes, I know Americans are importing ever more cars as they begin to share the rest of the world’s doubts about their own Chevrolets and Chryslers and, yes, car ownership ratios are still much higher in the US than in China, but three times as much car production in China as in the US still has a feeling of unreality. China is not rich enough yet to afford so large a car market.

Should a coming glut of second-hand cars now depress new car demand at the same time as a slump in shipbuilding and falling sales of construction steel, all of which are very much in the cards, these high levels of steel production will turn into so much rust.

Cement production at 30 times that of the US and steel production at five times that of the EU are not just adjusted or curtailed or consolidated. This sort of excess crashes if demand turns sour.

And it could take a lot more with it than just cement and steel plants. (SCMP
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 16, 2016, 02:27:50 PM




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中國出口集裝箱運價指數創1998年統計以來最低紀錄
回應(0) 人氣(239) 收藏(0) 2016/03/16 12:43
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-16 12:43:38 記者 賴宏昌 報導
根據上海航運交易所(航交所)公布的資料,中國出口集裝箱運價指數(CCFI)3月11日當週週跌4.1%至705.60點。wolfstreet.com報導,705.60點為1998年開始統計以來最低紀錄。
中國出口集裝箱運價指數以1998年1月1日為基期(1,000點)、同年4月13日首度公布。航交所每週五公布最新數據。
中國人民銀行行長周小川12日在記者會上表示,中國已經決定多依靠內需。他說,淨出口在GDP增長中的貢獻率也不再像以前那麼大。

中國海關總署8日公布,2016年2月進口金額(人民幣計價)年減8%至6,123億元,連續第16個月呈現年減、創史上最長紀錄;出口金額年減20.6%至8,218億元、遠不如1月的年減6.6%。統計顯示,中國2月進出口總值年減15.7%至1.43兆元。
以美元計價,中國2月進口金額年減13.8%,出口年減25.4%、遠大於1月的11.2%降幅。
中國國家統計局7日指出,今年世界經濟運行中的不利因素和不確定性因素增多、繼續低速運行的可能性較大,中國經濟的外部環境更為嚴峻、須認真對待。統計局表示,世界經濟今年仍將處於國際金融危機後的修復期、政策措施的有效性下降,新的增長動能尚未確立,仍會維持「低利率、低通脹、低增長、高負債」的「三低一高」態勢,復甦將依然疲弱乏力。
馬士基集團(A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S)執行長Nils Andersen上個月在接受英國金融時報專訪時提到,集團目前面臨的市況比2008年還糟。過去一年(截至2016年3月15日收盤為止)馬士基股價跌幅達41.72%。馬士基擁有全球航運市場15%的市占率、被視為全球貿易的領頭羊。
美國1月進口商品、服務月減1.3%至2,221億美元、創2011年4月以來新低;年減4.5%、連續第10個月低於一年前同期水準,創2008年11月至2009年11月以來最長萎縮紀錄。
航運ETF「Guggenheim Shipping ETF(SEA.us)」今年迄今跌幅達7.58%;2月11日收盤價(9.81美元)創2010年6月11日開始交易以來收盤新低。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 16, 2016, 06:01:51 PM



China Freight Index Collapses To Fresh Record Low
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/15/2016 21:30 -0400

Baltic Dry China fixed Jim Cramer Reality


 
inShare
19
 
The Baltic Dry Index has risen for the last few weeks, buoyed by hopes (a la Iron Ore) of a National People's Congress stimulus surge from China. While the scale of the 'bounce' is negligible in real terms compared to the total collapse, it has caused such momentum-muppets as Jim Cramer to proclaim China 'fixed' and investible. So we have one quick question - if everything is awesome, why did the China Containerized Freight Index just crash to new record lows?

It appears BDIY gets over-excited relative to CCFI...



Chart: Bloomberg

Only to rapidly crash back to CCFI reality shortly afterwards. Given the complete collapse back of Iron Ore, the hopes placated on the dead-cat-bounce in BDIY appear a little misplaced.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 08:20:20 AM



中国经济下滑压力加大 李克强: 不会硬着陆仍充满信心
国际新闻 头条 国际  2016-03-17 07:09

 
(北京16日讯)中国国务院总理李克强今天表示,中国经济增长下滑压力确实在持续加大,明显特征就是地区和行业的走势分化,困难和希望并存,但若从底盘和大势来看,希望仍大于困难。
李克强表示,对中国的经济仍充满信心,只要坚持改革开放,中国经济就不会硬着陆。
而中国政府正在推进简政、减税,这些供给侧结构性改革都会释放市场的活力。
他认为,中国经济在发展过程当中,还会有小幅、短期的波动,但若经济走势滑出合理区间,中国有创新宏观调控手段,可稳定中国经济运行。
李克强在中国第十二届全国人民代表大会第4次会议闭幕后举行的中外记者会中,回答新华社记者提问“有人担忧中国经济会一路下滑,甚至击穿6.5%这条线,不仅影响自身的发展,也会拖累世界经济”时说,中国经济本身在转型,一些长期累积的矛盾(冲突)凸显。
结合“双引擎”闯关
李克强强调,中国将把培育新动能和改造提升传统动能结合起来,形成中国经济的“双引擎”,就会闯过困难的关口。
不过,他也承认世界经济走势还不确定,不稳定因素也在增加,但中国有政策储备。去年全球经济增长是6年来最低,但中国还是实现约7%增长目标。
他说,中国去年没有用“大水漫灌”式的强刺激,而是选择一条更艰难但可持续的路,就是推进结构性改革
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on March 17, 2016, 09:39:17 AM
 :D :D :D................come april,Apek Choked Sorrow phobia RMB for sure!!! :D :D :D
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 03:15:30 PM



2016年03月17日 07:29 AM
中国拟用“债转股”减少不良贷款
英国《金融时报》 杨缘 香港报道
 

中国银行业监管机构负责人为国内银行利用“债转股”移除资产负债表上2000亿美元不良贷款的一部分扫清了道路。

在北京举行的全国人大年度会议的闭幕会议上,中国银监会(CBRC)主席尚福林提到了这一想法,并补充称,这是一个复杂的问题。

他对记者们表示:“我们正在研究债转股的事情,但不像有些媒体报道得那么简单。”在人大会议闭幕后的记者会上,中国总理李克强也表示,可以通过债转股的方式“逐步降低企业的杠杆率”。

实施债转股意味着中国各商业银行可以将他们所持的表现不佳公司的债权转换成股权。这些银行不能投资于非银行企业,尽管他们的子公司可以这样做。


还有法律条款规定,银行持股应长达两年,以备需要对不良贷款的抵押品进行扣押。长期以来,债务助燃的刺激及宽松信贷使中国经济积累了数万亿人民币债务,债转股计划的提出正是为了处理这些债务。这是自本世纪头几年对银行进行纾困以来,中国最高领导层首次提出这样的想法。

官方数据显示,中国银行业不良贷款已达1.27万亿元人民币(合1940亿美元),尽管一些分析师认为,实际数字要高得多。

上周,中国最大资产管理公司(AMC,即所谓“坏银行”)——华融资产管理公司(Huarong Asset Management)董事长赖小民对利用债转股的想法表示了欢迎。

赖小民呼吁将资产管理公司持有的1万亿至3万亿元人民币的债权转换成股权,并表示,资产管理公司也应被允许将不良贷款证券化并转售。然而,一些分析师认为,这样进行债转股只会让银行将不良贷款转换成不良股权。

研究公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)分析师陈龙表示:“对银行而言,这显然是个馊主意。这样做将把压力从僵尸企业转移至僵尸银行。”

麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)分析师胡伟俊(Larry Hu)表示,企业还有可能会因为知道银行会施以援手而过度举债,从而“加剧道德风险”。他解释说,由于资产管理公司与地方政府及企业没有过深的交情,前者往往很难拿到还款。

上周,原名熔盛重工(Rongsheng)的中国最大造船企业——华荣能源公司(Huarong Energy Company)提议用新发行的股票来抵消141亿元人民币的银行债务。当地新闻报道称,这笔交易将使中国银行(BoC)持有华荣能源14%的股份,成为该公司最大股东。

债转股自1999年开始在中国得到使用,当时中国政府开始将国有企业的不良贷款转移至新创立的资产管理公司。

译者/隆祥
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on March 17, 2016, 03:40:34 PM
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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 03:48:55 PM



2016年03月17日 07:29 AM
中国在南海是好战还是强硬?
新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院院长 马凯硕 为英国《金融时报》撰稿
 

中国在南中国海(South China Sea)好战?还是说中国立场强硬?这两者之间有区别么?没错,确实有区别。中国是立场强硬,却并不好战。

全球都相信中国正处于好战的状态。诸多照片给人这种印象,这些照片展示了有争议的斯普拉特利群岛(Spratly Islands,中国称南沙群岛)上的新军用跑道、防空导弹和大规模填海造岛工程。然而,填海造岛并不是中国首先开始的,而是其他主权声索国首先开始的:越南于1976年开始在斯普拉特利岛上修建跑道;菲律宾于1975年在中业岛(Thitu Island)上修建了一条跑道;马来西亚于1983年开始在燕子礁(Swallow Reef,也称弹丸礁)上修建一条跑道和一个度假村。不过,这些建筑活动中的大多数都发生在2002年东盟(ASEAN)和中国签署《南海各方行为宣言》(Declaration of Conduct on the South China Sea)之前。自那以来,其他国家只开展过小规模的升级和维修活动,而中国的大举建设则是在2013年到2014年之间开始的。

中国加入填海造岛的行列时,它的工程规模非常大。五角大楼的一份报告显示:“自2013年12月开始填海造岛以来,中国已在其斯普拉特利群岛8个前哨中的7个实施填海造岛。截至2015年6月,中国已填出逾2900英亩土地。相比之下,越南总共只填出大约80英亩土地,马来西亚填出70英亩,菲律宾填出14英亩,台湾填出8英亩。”该报告表示,中国在20个月内填出的土地是其他国家在40年里所填出土地总和的17倍。

显然,中国始终十分强硬。然而,如果中国真的好战,它可以以军事手段赶走其他占据岛屿的人。幸运的是,中国并未采取这类行动。事实上,军事冲突看起来极不可能发生。自1988年3月以来,该地区的枪炮基本保持静默状态。1988年3月,中国和越南曾在约翰逊南礁(Johnson South Reef,中国称赤瓜礁)发生小规模冲突,导致74名越南士兵丧生。


一个依然存在的问题是:中国为何决定在南中国海采取更强硬的立场?以下是部分较为可信的猜测:

新美国安全中心(Center for a New American Security)亚太安全项目的米拉•拉普-胡珀(Mira Rapp-Hooper)表示:“那些可能被华盛顿及其盟友视为间断性的、闪电般的建筑活动,在中国看来可能是完全合法的追赶游戏。”

越南外交学院(Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam)东海(即南中国海)研究中心(Center for East Sea Studies)主任陈长水(Tran Truong Thuy)说:“中国官员和学者曾提出了多个理由来支持中国政府的战略举措,这些理由包括:需要改善在南中国海的搜救能力,希望改善在那里工作的中国公民的工作和居住条件,以及需要基地支持中国的雷达和情报系统。”

我的同事黄靖教授表示:“虽然中国政府在与美国打交道时往往十分包容,但是中国仍在努力提升其在东中国海和南中国海的军事实力。这么做的目的不一定是要在和美国的对峙中占优,而是要提升美国与中国对峙时将不得不承受的军事和经济代价,从而令美国政府更愿意与中国讨价还价,而不愿与中国开战。”

不幸的是,中国政府的强硬令它犯下了一些严重错误。它导致东盟内部在2012年7月的外长会议上出现首次公开分歧。自1967年东盟创立以来,该组织每次召开此类会议后都会发布一份联合公报。然而,2012年东盟却没有这么做,原因是东盟在涉及南中国海的段落上无法达成一致。10个国家中有9个同意重申前一年公报中各国就这一问题达成一致的措辞,然而东道主柬埔寨却拒绝这么做。事后表明,柬埔寨受到了中国官员的巨大压力,要求它坚持不同意见。很明显,中国的崛起令他们中的部分人自负了起来
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 17, 2016, 08:20:33 PM



放言四海:何必“逢中必反”•蔡元评
言论 其他  2016-03-17 13:12

 
中国人有一句家喻户晓的话:有奶便是娘,下一句也很绝:有钱便是爷。
日久生变,有奶、有钱当然还是娘,还是爷;新情况出现了,场景叫“反对便是王”。台湾和香港是大中华版图上,“反对便是王”最神、最劲的地方。
谁是“中国人”,谁不是“中国人”,这个脸皮很挣扎。若以“中国人”称港台人,会受到“反对便是王”族群的抗争(简称反对族),因为如此等于剥削其严,藐视其独立自主。内行的,须察言观色,尊他:香港人、台湾人。不要把中国扯进去!
不过,大陆人、香港人、台湾人,总有许多时候勾在一块谋事;此时,当头的勉强以“华人”统称各方,说都是中华民族,反对族会勉为其难。但这款政治身分不上不下,有疏离感;等于是把港台人和海外落户,民族线路藕断丝连的马、新华人等通通拼在一板块上。
这拼图游戏蛮挣扎的,因为港台还不致如此散离;况且外国传媒又得揣摩“华人”又捎来了什么新鲜事,好让他有材料赶紧评论。
政治歇斯底里
便宜行事还是人人懂。大伙在大陆的经济利益上分得一杯羹的场合,会自动还原为中国人———有奶便是娘,当然,顺理成章,有钱便是爷。回到居留地,吮不到奶,就没他娘,也当然不管爷了。
大陆人、香港人、台湾人三头马车兜来拐去很麻烦!本文把港台人都称中国人。
“反”这个动词很活,从重到轻都有:消灭、推翻、拒绝、排斥;其特性是僵、硬、不合作、不妥协。“反”也不是只有消极的一面。若针对毒害社会的议题,例如反毒品、反贪等则必须鼓励。怀的是“逢中必反”发酵,演变为政治歇斯底里。
月前,香港教育局建议推行“认读简体字”,扩大学生阅读面,加强与内地、海外沟通”。咨询文件一出,反对族立即强烈抗议,指简体字“入侵”学校,令中文教育“倒退”。更有将其视为政治手段,称港府意图进一步“内地化”。
为求便捷,事实上人人都写简体;然而政府一旦出面推广,却猛然变成毒蛇猛兽。说实在,把“国”画蛇添足为“國”,有如脑勺后头留下满大人的辫子,其何奈何!
当局没敢喊卡
台湾反对族反对和大陆签服贸,反对加入亚投行等“逢中必反”旧事一箩筐。反对党大选扶正后,反对族终于弹跳有据。最近的飙法则把矛头指向孙中山,提案撤除其照片。二二八纪念日,反对族在蒋介石铜像上喷漆,表示不满外省人欺负本省人。反对族立委提出,若“粉饰”二二八,应处5年徒刑,换言之,如果不按其版本解释,须受刑罚。其霸气已超越理性和法治。
反对族动作一出炉,美国传媒必然一股脑的上前吹风,表示支持。而当局也一向不于“反对族”劈头批判。针对二二八,即将主政的民进党表示,要再成立调委会,再找出真相,并称,须以“轉型正義”解决。政治人物围着陈年旧事团团转,换了一个政府觉得不满意就来个新版本;下台后新政府又再用另一个脑袋更新版本,循环不息。每一个时段都把疮疤越挖越深,没有人敢喊“卡”。最终是夸夸其谈的反对族成王,而政府则沦为附庸!
港台的反对运动规模,和50年前毛泽东策动反对族打倒资产阶级的文革不可同日而语。文革究竟整死了多少人无法统计,有说是500万以上。邓小平对意大利记者说:“永远也统计不了,死因各种各样,中国又是那样广大;总之,人死了很多”。
善用中国因素
反这、反哪,不务正业使大陆停顿了至少30年。也是受害人的邓小平复出后,记取教训,不鼓励报复。政府把全部精力用在重建满目疮痍的中国,厘定轻重,以宏观全球的大气带领方向;尽管不是事事到位,事实证明,中国正迎头赶上。“逢中必反”,显然的只有一衣带水,同一传承的港台族群!
爱香港,爱台湾不必就敌视中国。抄录台湾《中国时报》社论:“在全世界都充满中国因素的时候,台湾社会不可能成为中国因素的免疫体;相反地,应该善用中国因素自强”。《时报》一语道破!
(作者为《全球竞争力》主编http://www.worldstt.com)
•蔡元评
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on March 18, 2016, 12:05:01 AM
 :D :D :D...........tiewwww!!!.......mana itu manyak panlai sombong ABC,sikalnag ahpek Choked Sorrow bilum April  lugi 50b sulah takut phobia RMB :thumbsdown: nanti mati coffin pon tarak!!! :clap: :clap: :clap: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: 


cehhhhHHHHh!!!..........int'l buaya ,tak bolih tahan kana lulah :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:索羅斯高調狙擊人民幣做空中國股市遭遇滑鐵盧,李克強擺下龍門陣,量子基金落荒而逃!勁虧8.07億美元! 

sikalang monkey king 2016,bukan 80an, 90an lah!!! :)



 
 
 張丹楓 
 
  2016-03-16 
  檢舉 
 
 

索羅斯高調狙擊人民幣做空中國股市遭遇滑鐵盧,李克強擺下龍門陣,量子基金落荒而逃!勁虧8.07億美元!
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on March 18, 2016, 12:08:35 AM
 :D :D :D............li hai yi dao sang hai,now lic-king broken leg n arms!! :( :shake: :shake: :shake:
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on March 18, 2016, 12:23:00 AM
:D :D :D...........tiewwww!!!.......mana itu manyak panlai sombong ABC,sikalnag ahpek Choked Sorrow bilum April  lugi 50b sulah takut phobia RMB :thumbsdown: nanti mati coffin pon tarak!!! :clap: :clap: :clap: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: 


cehhhhHHHHh!!!..........int'l buaya ,tak bolih tahan kana lulah :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:索羅斯高調狙擊人民幣做空中國股市遭遇滑鐵盧,李克強擺下龍門陣,量子基金落荒而逃!勁虧8.07億美元! 

sikalang monkey king 2016,bukan 80an, 90an lah!!! :)



 
 
 張丹楓 
 
  2016-03-16 
  檢舉 
 
 

索羅斯高調狙擊人民幣做空中國股市遭遇滑鐵盧,李克強擺下龍門陣,量子基金落荒而逃!勁虧8.07億美元!
  :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:..........lousy apek Choked Sorrow cared edi no coffin,given ratio usd1 for usd1k facilities also dare not to use until april!  :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown: :thumbsdown:
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 18, 2016, 08:37:46 AM



MALAYSIA WILL FACE HARD FALL IF CHINA STUMBLES
Our Reporter | March 18, 2016
download
THE PHILIPPINES, along with Malaysia, will suffer the most in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) given a further slowdown in China’s economy until 2020, according to a working paper from the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI).

China rebalancing remains at center of global trade disruption — World Bank
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Xurpas enters China via new investment

China Investment Corp. Managing Director Fan Zhai and ADBI Senior Consultant Peter Morgan, in the paper released for March, examined the spillover effects of an economic slowdown in China.

The study established a baseline, where economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators align with the projections of the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in October 2015.

Mr. Zhai and Mr. Morgan then conducted simulations, assuming real investment growth in the world’s second largest economy falling 3 percentage points (pps) annually, private consumption dropping 1.8 pps and income growth slowing to 4.8% from 6.2% in the five years to 2020.

The weaker domestic demand drags down imports growth, improving China’s trade balance by 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year and 2.5% in 2020. Real GDP subsequently declines by 7.2% within the five-year period.

“Through the trade linkage and multiplier effects, a slowdown in [China’s] economy is estimated to lower world GDP growth by 0.42 percentage points,” the working paper read.

The simulation results, meanwhile, suggest China’s economic slowdown would create a “moderate” regional impact. Excluding China, the average GDP growth of developing Asia as a whole would decelerate by 0.26 percentage points toward 2020.

The simulation found Taipei and Hong Kong most affected in the region with losses of 0.54 pp and would be most affected, with losses of 0.54 pp and 0.51 pp in annual GDP growth.

“In Southeast Asia, the Philippines and Malaysia would be hardest hit, with GDP growth slowing down by more than 0.40 percentage points, due to their strong trade linkages with [China],” the paper added.

The Philippines, in particular, could experience a drag of 0.47 percentage point in domestic output, 0.75 pp in exports, 0.45 pp in imports and 0.29 pp in trade balance-to-GDP ratio.

“The economies with higher propensities to consume tend to have larger multipliers. This explains why the Philippines and other South Asia would suffer relatively large output adjustments although the reduction in their trade balances as ratios to GDP would be smaller,” the paper read.

In the Philippines and other economies more deeply integrated with China, the machinery, electronics and chemical sectors would be more negatively impacted, based on the simulations.

“[E]lectronics exports of the Philippines would be significantly affected as well, largely due to the high participation of these sectors in [China]-centered Asian production chains,” the paper noted.

The paper also conducted simulations for a scenario, taking into account a 1-pp growth acceleration in the United States alongside China’s economic slowdown. The results indicate the adverse effects of China’s slowdown on the GDP growth of other economies would find partial relief with the stronger growth of the US.

“The impact on global growth would be negligible, and the growth of developing Asia as a whole (excluding the PRC) would be reduced by only 0.10 percentage points,” the paper read.

This suggests a 1-pp growth acceleration in the US would offset around 60% of the adverse growth effect of China’s slowdown for developing Asia.

“[M]ost economies would enjoy 0.2-0.3 percentage point gains in GDP growth from the US growth pickup. Malaysia, the Philippines, and Taipei,China would benefit most as their GDP growth would increase by 0.26-0.29 percentage point compared with the scenario of a the PRC’s slowdown alone,” the paper read.

The government’s Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) expects GDP to grow 6.8%-7.8% this year, down from the 7%-8% previously targeted. The economy’s expansion is seen slowing to 6.6%-7.6% next year before settling within 7%-8% and 6.9%-7.9% in 2018 and 2019, respectively
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on March 18, 2016, 08:43:12 AM
 :D :D :D...........cehhhHHHhh!!!.......come to monies,even peter Lizard,mark monster.warlang boffat,micheal apanama,ti kor liang ti kor jor!!! :P :P :P
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 18, 2016, 08:46:14 AM



专家一针见血 5年出口跌58% 木制品坐失中国大市场
头条 全国  2016-03-18 07:11

 

朱光前: 大马出口至中国的份额越来越少。

(吉隆坡17日讯)中国木材与木制品流通协会首席专家朱光前指出,中国是世界上木材需求最大的市场,而且需求量逐年增加,可是,近5年来大马似乎逐渐退出中国市场,2010年至2015年出口至中国的木材减少了58%。
他说,2010年,大马出口至中国的木材包括原木及锯材达129万9000立方米,2015年减少至55万立方米,降幅高达58%。
“那5年里,中国进口原木增加44%,但是它从大马进口的原本却减少了79%;同期,中国进口的锯材增加70.6%,但从大马进口仅增加1.9%。”
未积极开拓中国市场
朱光前今日在2016年大马木材理事会(MTC)讲座,主讲“大马木材产品及家具在中国的市场发展及前景”时说,上述现象导因包括大马并未积极开拓中国市场。
他说,在此前,大马木材理事会在中国的代表机构,积极参与中国的各项木材工业相关活动及展览,并与中国企业交流,当时,大马木材出口中国的出口量很大。
“可是,5年前开始,该木材理事会代表机构却很少参与中国方面举办的各种会议及展览,我并没有要批评现在的理事会,但是参与活动确实比之前少了,与中国企业的互动也相对减少。
“最近5年,大马似乎已退出中国木材市场,把中国市场给丢了。中国对木材及木制品都有很大需求量,但大马出口至中国的份额却越来越少,我觉得很可惜。”
朱光前吁积极开拓市场 中国对马木材有需求
朱光前认为,随着中国木材需求量不断增加,而大马也是木材工业发达的国家,不乏木材资源,不应该丧失此机会,应积极开拓中国市场。
朱光前补充,中国对大马木材仍有需求,大马的热带木材主要用以制造家具、地板及户外家具等。
大马家具“登陆”看俏
他说,中国针叶材主要进口自俄罗斯、美国、加拿大及欧洲;热带材主要进口自巴布亚新几内亚、所罗门及非洲。
“其实巴布亚新几内亚资源比马来西亚少很多,可是却占中国进口木材的40%,巴布亚新几内亚的体量不太大,没有太多发展潜能,反之大马应该有很多热带木材。”
朱光前说,中国劳动力成本越来越高,未来大马家具出口去中国的机会越来越大,前景看俏。
他说,目前中国劳动力成本与大马不相上下,但中国工资水平上涨速度比大马快,因此中国的产品成本,将会越来越高。
“只要大马提高生产力及控制成本,未来大马家具进入中国的可能性越来越大,而且出口到中国的家具价格也会涨,利润将因此增加。”
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on March 18, 2016, 08:53:34 AM
 :D :D :D......cehhhhHHHHh!!!......pro talk cunk only,no need needle oso see abalones!!! :P :P :D :D :D.................so good edi millinaire no more working as pro/prosti....being paid to service!! :D :D :D
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 18, 2016, 09:00:39 AM



2016年03月17日 07:29 AM
中国推迟退休年龄势在必行
经济学者 孙涤 为FT中文网撰稿
 

经济政策无所谓绝对的好或者坏,在合适的时机把握合理的度是政策成功的关键,过犹不及,不及犹过。要言之,经济增长无论作为手段还是目的都必需围绕着人;反过来,人口的结构和规模又是经济增长的最主要的促进因素和制约条件。要是我们还能形成共识,同意亚当.斯密的判断——“一切生产莫不为了消费”,那么,上一期我们提出的彻底废止户籍限制《取消户籍限制势在必行》,以及本期要着重讨论的,尽快推迟退休年龄,都是势在必行的改革举措。

五十年代中国采用户籍制度以阻断城乡人口流动,是为了工业化;工业化则是为了备战;而备战是为了彻底埋葬万恶的资本主义制度。这个战略目标早就被离弃。废止户籍限制之所以拖延至今未得实现,我们已分析到,难在城乡被割裂成两个世界,水位相差悬殊,要拆除户籍的大坝而避免洪灾,实在是很艰难的事。不但要有改制的能力、勇气、决心,还必须有制定和落实具体的配套政策的智慧。本期要讨论的,推迟领取退休金的年龄,不过是其中的一项配套改革措施。

过去一年多来,我们在突破生育限制方面跨出了明显的步骤。但是,松绑“单孩” 的限制,对恢复劳动力的供应,短期效应可以说几乎没有(2016年新生的婴儿,最早也得十六年,到2032年才有可能进入劳动力市场);它的中期效应会有一些,可望通过性别结构的再平衡,减轻一胎化限制造成的婴孩性别选择的压力,来增加劳动力的有效供应。然而改善能不能是长期的,效验能否显著,则要看自己愿不愿意付出代价,忍受短痛接受改变;至于长期效应能否如愿,更得看改弦易辙的变革决心了。

人口的结构及其演变如同一个“生命池”:进水锐减出水迟缓,老龄化的结果,可以在下面的图形清晰看到。(图1)可持续存活的人口型态显示成金字塔的摸样,长程来看,以坡度相对陡峭、男女对称者为最佳。过去数十年我国的人口结构则像一个纺锤形,工作年龄人口充沛,老人小孩受抚养人口相对较少,支撑着经济高速增长。过去五年经过拐点之后,中国人口的图形正在演变成为“倒金字塔”,这是政策制定者始料未及的,正在渐渐逼近全社会的梦魇。将来的图形表达了面临的两个困境:从纺锤形走向倒金字塔形,而且右半边(女性)比左半边(男性)要瘦弱,表示阳盛阴衰——性别结构处在严重失衡的状况。这个长程演变几乎是无可变更的,是个“硬约束”,无论你采取怎样的经济政策和发展战略。


(图1)





始料不及的社会迅速老龄化,对全世界的经济成长,及再生产的“善后”健保养老体制安排,带来了艰巨的挑战。拜社会保障制度和医疗健保技术的进步之赐,人类的健康状况半个世纪以来大有改善,更长更健康的退休生涯已然成为全球常见的现象。而直到一、两代人之前,退休还是一个闻所未闻的字眼,活到老做到老是大多数人的宿命。

以美国为例,其保障基金计划创设之初(1946年),一个关键的参数是人们进入退休后,被赡养的时间平均只有6至7年。目前已翻番,延长到了15至16年,还在节节突破。而在各国,美国社会在年龄老化的压力还是最轻的,因为不断有年轻的移民注入它的“生命池”
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 20, 2016, 02:15:58 PM



China says economy still under pressure, but recent data shows improvement
Published: March 20, 2016 12:06 PM GMT+8

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China’s manufacturing output in January and February grew at its weakest pace since 2008, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this month. — Reuters pic
China’s manufacturing output in January and February grew at its weakest pace since 2008, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this month. — Reuters pic
BEIJING, March 20 — China’s economy still faces downward pressure but recent data points to some improvement in activity, Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said today.

Chinese leaders have repeatedly tried to reassure jittery financial markets and China’s major trading partners that Beijing is able to manage the slowing economy, following a slide in the country’s stock market and depreciation of the yuan.

“We don’t want to shy away from saying that China’s economy is facing downward pressure, but overall the progress is steady,” he said.

Recent data, until early March, including fixed-asset investment and employment, showed that the economy is improving, Zhang told a high-level economic forum in Beijing.

China’s manufacturing output in January and February grew at its weakest pace since 2008, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics earlier this month.

The government will make pre-emptive policy adjustments to help keep economic growth within a reasonable range, Zhang said, reaffirming the official stance.


 
The government has set a growth target of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent for 2016. The world’s second-largest economy expanded by 6.9 per cent in 2015, its slowest pace in 25 years.

Beijing has pledged to make monetary policy more flexible this year even as it leans more on increased fiscal spending and tax cuts to support economic growth and cushion the pain from structural reforms.

The government also needed to prevent risks in the stock, debt, currency and property markets, prevent “cross infection” in between the markets and ward off systemic risks in the economy, Zhang said.

China will press ahead with “supply-side reforms” to cut excess industrial overcapacity, focusing on such sectors as coal, steel, aluminium and plate glass, he added. — Reuters

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/china-says-economy-still-under-pressure-but-recent-data-shows-improvement#sthash.WrtY7eIJ.dpuf
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 21, 2016, 05:49:47 AM



OIL RALLY NOT SUSTAINABLE SAYS RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK
Our Reporter | March 20, 2016
9642931-14583307440947945
Opinion Piece By GARY BOURGEAULT

The Russian central bank agrees, saying it doesn’t believe the price of oil is sustainable under existing market conditions.

Cited by CNBC, the Russian central bank said, “the current oil market still features a continued oversupply, on the backdrop of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, more supplies originating from Iran and tighter competition for market share.”

In other words, most things in the market that should be improving to support the price of oil aren’t. That can only mean one thing: a violent pullback that could easily push the price of oil back down to the $30 to $32 range. If the price starts to fall quickly, we could see panic selling driving the price down even further.

I think most investors understand this is not a legitimate rally when looking at the lack of change in fundamentals. I’ll be glad when the production freeze hoax is seen for what it is: a manipulation of the price of oil by staggered press releases meant to pull investors along for the ride. The purpose is to buy some time to give the market more time to rebalance. Once this is seen for what it really is, oil will plummet. It could happen at any time in my opinion.

Rig count increases for first time in three months

For the first time in three months, the U.S. rig count was up, increasing by one to 387. By itself this isn’t that important, but when combined with the probability that more shale supply may be coming to the market in 2016, it definitely could be an early sign of the process beginning.

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) has stated it plans on starting up to 270 wells in 2016. We don’t know yet how much additional supply it represents, but it’s going to offset some of the decline from other companies that can’t continue to produce at these price levels. There are other low-cost shale producers that may be doing the same, although I think the price of oil will have to climb further to make it profitable for them, probably around $45 per barrel.

It’s impossible to know at this time if the increase in the price of oil was a catalyst, or we’ve seen the bottom of the drop in rig counts. The next round of earnings reports will give a glimpse into that.

Fundamentals remain weak

Most of the recent strength of the price of oil has been the continual reporting on the proposed production freeze from OPEC and Russia. This is light of the fact there really won’t be a freeze, even if a piece of paper is signed saying there is.

We know Iran isn’t going to agree to a freeze, and with Russia producing at post-Soviet highs and Iraq producing at record levels, what would a freeze mean anyway? It would simply lock in output levels the countries were going to operate at with or without an agreement.

The idea is the freeze is having an effect on the market and this will lead to a production cut. That simply isn’t going to happen. There is zero chance of that being the outcome of a freeze, if that ever comes about.

And a freeze without Iran isn’t a freeze. To even call it that defies reality. How can there be a freeze when the one country that would make a difference isn’t part of it? If Iran doesn’t freeze production, it means more supply will be added to the market until it reaches pre-sanction levels. At that time, all Iran has promised is it may consider the idea.

What does that have to do with fundamentals? Absolutely nothing. That’s the point.

Analysis and decisions need to be based on supply and demand. Right now that doesn’t look good. The other major catalyst pushing up oil prices has been the belief that U.S. shale production will decline significantly in 2016, which would help support oil. The truth is we have no idea to what level production will drop. It seems every time a report comes out it’s revised in a way that points to shale production remaining more resilient than believed.

I have no doubt there will be some production loss in the U.S., but to what degree there will be a decline, when considering new supply from low-cost shale companies, has yet to be determined. I believe it’s not going to be near to what was originally estimated, and that will be another element weakening support over the next year.

Competing for market share

One part of the oil market that has been largely ignored has been the competition for market share itself. When U.S. shale supply flooded the market, the response from Saudi Arabia was to not cede market share in any way. That is the primary reason for the plunge in oil prices.

There has been no declaration by the Saudis that they are going to change their strategy in relationship to market share and have said numerous times they are going to let the market sort it out, as far as finding a balance between supply and demand. So the idea they are now heading in a different direction is a fiction created by those trying to find anything to push up the price of oil.

It is apparent some of the reason for increased U.S. imports comes from Saudi Arabia in particular lowering its prices to nudge out domestic supply. It’s also why the idea of inventory being reduced in conjunction with lower U.S. production can’t be counted on. It looks like imports will continue to climb while shale production declines.

More competition means lower prices, although in this case, Saudi Arabia is selling its oil at different price points to different markets. It’s the average that matters there, and we simply don’t have the data available to know what that is.

In the midst of all of this, Russia is battling the Saudis for share in China, while the two also battle it out in parts of Europe, with Saudi Arabia looking to take share away from Russia. Some of Europe has opened up to competitors because it doesn’t want to rely too much on Russia as its major energy source.

For this and other competitive reasons, I could never trust a production freeze agreement if it ever came to fruition. They haven’t been adhered to in the past, and they won’t be if it happens again. Saudi Arabia has stated several times that it feels the same way.

Conclusion

To me the Russian central bank is spot on in saying the chance of a sustainable oil rally is slim. It also accurately pointed out the reasons for that: it’s about the lack of the fundamentals changing
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 21, 2016, 03:11:21 PM



China's Latest Problem: Half A Trillion Dollars In Unpaid Bills
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/20/2016 20:30 -0400

Capital Markets China default Equity Markets


 
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It’s no secret by now that China has a rather serious debt problem.

Although getting a precise read on it is next to impossible, all told the debt pile probably sums to something like $30 trillion. Various reports put the figure at between 250% and 300% of GDP all-in and as we reported back in January, that may have swelled to more than 340% by the end of 2015.

Corporate debt-to-GDP was around 125% in 2014 and probably sits above 150% now. Depending on what business you’re in, servicing that debt has become all but impossible. As Macquarie discovered last autumn, more than half of all debt for commodities firms was EBIT-uncovered in 2014 and heaven only knows what that figure looks like now.



Things have gotten so bad that in 2015, Chinese firms issued $1.2 trillion in new debt just so they could service their existing loans. In other words, China’s entire corporate sector is quickly becoming one giant ponzi scheme.




“Chinese companies are struggling to generate the cash flow needed to service their obligations,” Bloomberg said last November, summing up the situation in the absolute simplest terms possible.

And it’s only going to get worse. On Sunday we learn that median days sales outstanding for mainland domiciled companies now sits at 83 days - the highest in nearly 17 years and double the average for EM as a whole.



As you can see from the above, it now takes 50% longer for Chinese firms to get paid than it did just five years ago. As you might imagine, the problem is particularly acute for industrial firms who are waiting 131 days to convert sales into cash. "A reading of more than 100 days is typically a red flag," Amy Sunderland, a money manager at Grandeur Peak Global Advisors in Salt Lake City told Bloomberg.

Yes, Amy it certainly is. Especially considering the median for companies in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is just 44 days.

"Accounts receivable at the nation’s public firms have swelled by 23 percent over the past two years to about $590 billion, exceeding the annual economic output of Taiwan," Bloomberg goes to write before summing up the situation as follows: "With corporate bankruptcies projected to climb 20 percent this year, more Chinese businesses may be forced to choose between two unpleasant options: keep extending credit to potentially insolvent customers, or cut off the taps and watch sales sink."

Needless to say, this is just another way of looking at the same problem. That is, if I'm an industrial company and you're my customer, and you can't pay me for four months, then I can't service my debt, and thus my loans end up in the special mention bucket at the bank. If you never pay me and there are enough customers like you included in my accounts receivable, then eventually I'm screwed and assuming the Politburo allows it, my loan moves from special mention at the bank to the NPL line.

Unless of course I borrow more money to service my existing debt while simultaneously extending you more credit to "buy" what I'm selling, in which case the entire charade continues for another few months while the amount of leverage embedded in the system grows even larger.

Of course this can only go on for so long. “There is a knock-on effect through the economy,” Fraser Howie, author of “Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise,” tells Bloomberg. “Part of the end game is default and closure.”

Right. Because what the chart above suggests is that even healthy companies will start to have working capital problems sooner or later and before long, the proverbial can simply will have been kicked as far into the future as possible and when the breaking point finally comes, every weak hand across the entire supply chain will be shaken out, triggering a cascade of defaults, a resultant banking crisis, and finally, a sharp reduction in excess capacity until the market finally clears. Millions of Chinese will lose their jobs in the process and the PBoC will likely be forced to keep the banks from collapsing, but that's another story.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, PBoC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that China's corporate sector is weighed down by far too much debt. “Lending as a share of GDP, especially corporate lending as a share of GDP, is too high,” he said at the China Development Forum in Beijing. Highly leveraged economies are more susceptible to macroeconomic risks, he added, in a fantastic example of stating the obvious. One does wonder however, if the PBoC was so concerned about excessive debt, how Beijing managed to let the country add a half trillion in TSF during the month of January alone:



One thing that would help, Zhou innocently suggested, is if more savings were channeled into equity markets so that companies could reduce their dependency on debt. "[We need] more robust capital markets," he said. He might have put it another way: "It would be nice if everyone would just pour their savings into equity, that way, companies wouldn't have to take on more debt."

As FT notes, "about one-third of listed Chinese companies owe at least three times as much in debt as they own in assets, according to figures from Wind."

You'd be forgiven if, upon reading all of the above, you come away feeling a bit uneasy about China's ability to manage this "transition." But really, you shouldn't worry because when it's all said and done, you'll be thanking China for providing the world with a template for how to do something that's absolutely impossible: deleverage and re-leverage at the same time. Here's IMF chief Christine Lagarde: "The world will be watching closely to learn from China as it deftly manages the delicate balance between economic transformation and deeper global integration."

We're not sure about the whole "deftly manages" part, but the world will certainly be "watching closely", that's for sure.

We'll give the final word to Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli: “There will be no systemic risks -- that’s our bottom line."

If you say so.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 21, 2016, 05:01:40 PM




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通縮罩頂!中國出口集裝箱運價指數再創1998年新低
回應(0) 人氣(201) 收藏(0) 2016/03/21 15:10
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-21 15:10:32 記者 賴宏昌 報導
根據上海航運交易所(航交所)公布的資料,中國出口集裝箱運價指數(CCFI)3月18日當週週跌5.0%至670.11點、創1998年開始統計以來最低紀錄。中國人民銀行行長周小川12日在記者會上表示,中國已經決定多依靠內需。
全球最大供應鏈物流管理公司利豐(港股代號:0494)於17日香港股市盤後公佈2015年財報:營收年減2.4%至188.31億美元;核心經營溢利(營益)年減15.2%至5.12億美元。利豐表示主要市場包括美國、歐洲(註:前兩大市場)及亞洲均面臨艱難的經營環境。
利豐指出,美國消費者用於一般服裝、鞋類及配飾的消費支出並沒有因油價下跌而明顯增加,當地零售業呈現緩慢復甦。歐洲業務受政局不穩以及移民潮引發社會與經濟動盪而下跌11%至31億美元、跌幅居各市場之冠。

鑒於眼前全球經濟及零售市場於短期內未有明顯的復甦跡象,利豐預期2016年將會是充滿挑戰的一年;由於通縮壓力持續、利豐認為全球營商環境將維持疲弱。
中外運航運(港股代號:0368)2015年淨損6,633萬美元、遠不如2014年的186.2萬美元。中外運航運指出,CCFI 2015年全年平均值年減19%至879點、為歷年最低水準。
美國密西根大學消費者信心指數3月初值年減3.2%(月減1.9%)至90.0、創2015年10月(90.0)以來新低,連續第3個月呈現下滑,低於2015年平均值(92.9)。2016年2月美國零售與飲食服務銷售額月減0.1%、連續第2個月呈現縮減,創2014年12月至2015年2月以來最長下滑紀錄。
德國2月生產者物價指數(PPI)年減3%、連續第31個月呈現負增長,降幅大於1月(年減2.4%)。
中國國家統計局7日指出,今年世界經濟運行中的不利因素和不確定性因素增多、繼續低速運行的可能性較大,中國經濟的外部環境更為嚴峻、須認真對待。統計局表示,世界經濟今年仍將處於國際金融危機後的修復期、政策措施的有效性下降,新的增長動能尚未確立,仍會維持「低利率、低通脹、低增長、高負債」的「三低一高」態勢,復甦將依然疲弱乏力。
截至台北時間21日下午3時1分為止,利豐下跌2.63%、報4.45港元;過去一年跌幅達37.68%。中外運航運下跌2.99%、報1.30港元;過去一年跌幅達23.98%。
*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 22, 2016, 10:49:33 AM



2016年03月22日 06:57 AM
中国新宏观经济战略浮出水面
支点资产管理公司董事长 加文•戴维斯 为英国《金融时报》撰写
 

在过去的几年中,中国的宏观经济战略总体上未能博得发达市场投资者的信任,尽管从公布的数据来看,中国的经济表现仍然颇为可观。

一部分原因是中国似乎缺乏一套连贯、成熟、使保持增长和推动经济再平衡以及降低总体债务水平这三方面工作能够齐头并进的战略。正如本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)所言,如今在发达经济体中被视为理所当然的政策透明,在中国的政治体制中还没有成为自然而然的事情。

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中国一直在试图改善这一记录,在一些情况下还向西方高级顾问征询意见。过去两周,有证据显示,中国一年一度的全国人大会议所发布的经济声明体现出了“具有中国特色的公开性”。

中国宏观经济战略的总体要旨似乎大致上正是当前所需要的,但计划中的转变——从“僵尸”制造业企业转向新经济——只会缓慢地进行,与国内生产总值(GDP)增长6.5%至7.0%的目标以及确保整体失业率不上升的任务保持一致。


在新的战略下,中国经济的“着陆”不一定会是“硬着陆”,但仍可能是一段漫长的旅程,需要经历很多的迂回曲折才会完全解决问题。

最新的政策改革正面临着经济形势自年初以来不断恶化的局面。下图来自支点资产管理公司(Fulcrum)的“即时预测”(nowcast)模型,概括了本10年中国经济增长的主要特征。


长期增速(主要由经济的供应侧决定)已从本10年初的10%降至现在的6%。没什么办法能改变这种趋势。

还有明显的证据表明,围绕这一主要趋势存在一种“迷你”周期,一般仅持续一年左右(从波峰到波峰)。过去3个月,最新“迷你”周期似乎已转为下行。目前的活动增速估值为4.7%左右,低于这个“迷你”周期之前的波谷。模型的置信带现在向下方延伸至2%的水平,那代表着真正的硬着陆。

然而,市场似乎完全没有受到这种变化的困扰,市场仍相信,这将被证明为是短暂的,来自需求管理的最新刺激措施将逆转这一趋势。这种乐观的预测或许会被证明为是正确的,不过,在“即时预测”模型开始反弹之前,仍然会存在一些紧张情绪。

宏观政策面临艰巨挑战。它需要加快经济再平衡进程,但又不能过快推进再平衡以免经济硬着陆。理想情况下,这样的战略将具有以下要素:

——快速关闭制造业部门的冗余产能以降低通缩压力;

——更为宽松的货币政策以提振内需并为房地产部门提供缓冲;

——更为积极的财政政策,主要致力于促进消费而非投资;

——一次性调整人民币汇率(大约10%-15%)以恢复人们对“盯住”一篮子货币汇率制度的信心,从而让资本不再外流。资本外流会破坏稳定,侵蚀国内所需的宽松货币环境;

——出台全面的银行部门资本重整措施,原因是不良贷款核销在加快,主要是在国企不良贷款领域;

——进一步改革以拓宽金融和服务领域以及劳动力市场的价格信号。

——就我看来,这6点应该是评估新宏观战略的基准。

好消息是,中国全国人大会议宣布的一系列政策举措包含了这套战略的许多要素。李克强数月来强调,2016年的首要任务之一将是关闭“僵尸”国企的过剩产能,主要是在基础制造业
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 23, 2016, 02:26:20 PM



2016年03月23日 07:36 AM
Lex专栏:承认中国债务问题是第一步
英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏
 

第一步是承认问题存在。如果这个似曾相识的治疗理念是正确的,中国也许能走上救赎的道路。上周末,中国人民银行(PBoC)行长周小川成为公开承认中国面临债务问题的最新一名官员。据英国《金融时报》估计,中国债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比高达230%(相比之下,希腊的这一比例是200%)。周小川有关公司债务“偏高”的言论,是英雄式的低调表述。

周小川提出的解决方案之一是发展“促进资本市场健康发展”,在更大程度上依靠股本融资。这跟中国银监会(CBRC)主席上周五给出的建议有异曲同工之妙:即中国可能试行债转股。这样做可以降低总债务——但只是通过重新分配呆滞资本。

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如果股市可以复苏,这类措施看起来就没那么勉强。周一有报道称,中国证券金融公司(China Securities Finance Corp)将重启面向证券公司的贷款,香港和中国内地上市的券商股应声飙涨7%-10%。这些资金进而能作为保证金融资借给投资者。

这似乎表明政策制定者正试图支撑股指。这很难仅仅通过保证金融资实现。自今年初以来,沪深股市的未偿还保证金贷款总额从1800亿美元减至1300亿美元。保证金融资往往跟随大盘而动,而非引领其变化。散户对股市的兴趣处于低位,即便中国股指成分股的市盈率仍仅略高于近期触及的低点。


要振奋市场,仅仅提供廉价资金还远远不够。如果仅仅因为这些官方声明就对中国股票感到心动,那么你肯定相信一个债务问题能用另一个债务问题来解决。第一步已经迈出。但要说救赎还为时过早。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/艾卜
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 08:37:25 AM



CHINA’S H SHARE RALLY IS ONE BIG BEAR TRAP
Our Reporter | March 24, 2016
20160324_080040
The rally that’s driven Chinese stocks in Hong Kong to the cusp of a bull market will falter as concerns over yuan volatility and rising debt resurface, says Aberdeen Asset Management Plc.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is up 18 percent since slumping to an almost seven-year low in February, outpacing the 10 percent rebound by MSCI Inc.’s global gauge. Shares in the city advanced as the yuan stabilized, central banks around the world took steps to boost stimulus and commodity prices rebounded. Aberdeen Asset’s Nicholas Yeo isn’t convinced the calm will last.

The H-share gauge is experiencing a “bear market rally or a dead cat bounce,” not a bull market, said Yeo, head of China and Hong Kong equities and a director at the fund manager, which oversees about $430 billion. “Some of the flows in equities are not really due to equities but due to taking a view on the currency.”

China’s shock yuan devaluation in August and the currency’s slump to a five-year low in January heightened concern about the nation’s economic outlook and triggered a flight from risky assets around the world. While central-bank intervention helped the yuan erase its 2016 drop this month and price swings have abated, jitters remain. China’s companies are seeking hedging services like never before and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect the currency to weaken 4 percent by the end of the year.
“Once that fear comes back again, that might trigger another runoff,” Yeo said.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 11:52:18 AM



China Sends Fed A Warning: Devalues Yuan By Most In 2 Months
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/23/2016 22:39 -0400

China Yuan


 
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With the USD Index stretching to its longest winning streak of the year, jawboned by numerous Fed speakers explaining how April is 'live' (and everyone misunderstood the dovishness of Yellen), it appears that The PBOC wanted to send a message to The Fed - Raise rates and we will unleash turmoil on your 'wealth creation' plan. Large unexpected Yuan drops have rippled through markets in recent months spoiling the party for many and tonight, by devaluing the Yuan fix by the most since January 7th, China made it clear that it really does not want The Fed to hike rates and cause a liquidity ****-out again.

 

The last 4 days have seen nearly a 1% devaluation in the Yuan fix with today's drop the biggest in over 2 months...



 

And while everyone is quietly commenting on how "stable" the Yuan has been this year, the truth is that is only the case against the USD, the Yuan basket has been consistently devaluing since PBOC admitted it was more focused on that than the USD only...



 

The last time they sent a message, The Fed rapidly acquiesced and decided a rate hike was inadvisable due to global market turmoil... we wonder what happens this time.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 24, 2016, 02:35:21 PM



2016年03月24日 12:44 PM
从供给侧看中国金融监管误区
北京大学光华管理学院金融学教授 刘俏
 
【编者按】本文为北京大学光华管理学院教授刘俏在“2016两会后经济形势和政策分析会”上的发言实录。作者授权FT中文网发布。

从去年中央经济工作会议开始,到今年“两会”,一直讲 “三去一降一补”(指“去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板”——编者注)。我讲的几个关键词,无一不与金融改革有关系,特别是补是“补短板”。我认为,金融体系本身可能已经成为中国经济发展最大的短板。

亲爱的读者,我们注意到您在30天内连续阅读了5篇以上文章,如果您喜欢FT中文网,我们诚邀您登录访问或免费注册为FT中文网的会员。

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中国债务率太高、资本使用效率太低下

我把问题的迫切性再简单分析一下。从中国的金融结构上讲,大家都很理解“三去”,去杠杆,因为债务率已经非常高。下图来自麦肯锡,显示到2014年第二季度结束时,中国的企业债务已占到GDP的125%。而美国、澳大利亚,其他一些OECD国家基本上是60%到70%。



换个角度讲,可能一年用于还利息的资金,已经占到国民产出的9%到10%以上。从这个角度讲,债务率确实太高了。我想这也是去年政府一直在吹捧一个叫“国家牛市”的一个背景。因为讲债务结构时,基本上是看债务跟股东权益的比例。在杠杆很高的情况下,把资本市场市值做大一些,有利于优化所谓的债务结构。所以,政府去年应该说是一厢情愿地在做政策上预期的培育,效果大家也看到了,因为资本市场本身很难成为宏观调控的手段,结果是灾难性的。

这背后反映出中国金融一个深层次的问题,就是我们现在债务结构极其不合理,而且构建一个合理体系的基本要素普遍缺失。这个问题我从供给侧角度讲,可能更加清晰一些。下图是去年第一季度做的一个分析,显示中国的31个省市自治区直辖市(不包括港澳台),固定资产投资率跟第一季度GDP增长速度,基本上是负相关。



这也就意味着继续靠需求侧的政策、靠投资来拉动经济增长,已经很难再产生效果了。这意味着中国经济在下个阶段最重要的转型在于提升资本的使用效率。从这个角度讲,金融改革它的任务使命已经表现出来了。

中国金融改革的目标不是把规模做大,而是提高效率

所以,我们在理解金融改革的时候,其实目标非常清晰,非常简单,就是提高中国经济的资本使用效率。或者用今天的语境来讲,就是能不能提高生产率本身,可能是衡量我们是否成功的唯一标志。换句话讲,从供给侧的理解,我们未来的政策设计,基本的出发点在于我们能否提升经济生活的全要素生产率或者资本的使用效率。这一点是比较清晰的。

下面用几个例子讲,为什么现在的改革思路,可能在识别上有一些误区,因为背离了这个基本标准。下面这个图是美国的情况。美国从上世纪的60年代到2008年金融危机爆发时,整个金融行业的价值附加占GDP的比例从4%增加到8%。大家觉得8%太高了,这也是为什么在2007、2008年爆发金融危机很重要的一个原因。



但大家再看中国,因为去年二级市场很发达,上半年整个金融体系对GDP的贡献已经占到9.5%,去年全年降到8.5%。按金融体系对GDP的贡献来讲,中国已经超过美国。中国的金融比美国发达吗?大家可以做出判断。

所以,这背后也反映出一个很重要的识别上的误区。我们过去一直以为,我们把金融资产规模做的很大,把金融从业人员、金融机构做的很大,数量做的很大,就意味着金融改革成功,这其实是错误的。金融的本质是把资金需求方和供给方连接起来,连接过程应该是简单、直接、有效的。所以,未来需要把中国金融体系对GDP的贡献从9%打下来,降到5%,或者6%,或者一个比较均衡的位置。9%太高了,这中间的环节使得经济效率已经不再具有一定的水准,整个金融乱象也使得提升资本使用效率和劳动生产率变得越来越困难。

目前对资本市场、地方债务市场、互联网金融的监管误区

按照这个标准,我们可以思考一下,对最近比较热热点的几个市场,包括资本市场、地方债务市场、互联网金融,我们是否在认知上已经背离了本质?

先说资本市场,到目前为止,我们的证券监管机构还是把所谓的做指数,就是股价指数本身,作为监管的出发点,而忽略了监管出发点应该是维护一个良好的市场体系,从而使得金融中介的成本降下来。如果忽略这一点,不管谁做主席,不管是来主导证券市场监管,用什么样的政策,都会是缘木求鱼。

我们需要优质的上市公司,需要一个能够识别、培育优质上市公司的机制。通过这种方式,才有可能真正让资本市场起到优化中国金融结构的作用,从而使得企业能够借助多层次资本市场实现融资的多项选择,使得融资成本降下来。

另外,关于地方债务市场。2014年出台13号文,把地方政府发债的权力往上收,用行政方式干预地方政府的债务问题,其实是过去一段时间被批评非常多的一项政策建议。原因非常简单,我们现在的做法相当于,每年由人大确定地方发债的一个盘子,由中央向各个省批一个额度,然后再通过审查厅的方式在额度范围之内发债。他们认为通过这种方式能控制地方政府的债务规模,但其实这个思路本身已经涉及太多中间环节,这些中间环节会带来大量的既得利益者之间的博弈,从而影响地方债务的发债成本和定价。

我认为,中国地方政府债务问题从来不是规模问题,而是使用效率问题。从这一点讲,地方政府债务市场也需要供给侧改革,需要提高地方政府的投资效率。下图横轴是中国地方政府的债务规模,纵轴是地方政府的投资效率,显示非常明显的负相关,表明中国经济发展比较好、投资效率比较高的省份,其实有非常强大的地方政府债务规模的容纳能力。但是现在一刀切的方式,使得这个市场变得很扭曲。



具体细节可以看一下第二行山东。这里显示了地方政府发债之后出现的一个很有趣的现象。2014年山东发债的时候,山东省的债务利率比同期国债要低。这意味着如果这个定价是合理的,那么山东省政府的信用比中华人民共和国还好!这么一种扭曲定价形成的原因很简单,因为背后有太多的博弈在里面。这种额度制的方式,指令性计划的方式,会让太多的既得利益者和权力进行博弈。这样一种制度设计,背离了我们讲的金融改革的目标函数,那就是要让金融中介过程越简单,越直接,越有效越好。



再看看互联网金融,这是过去一段时间诟病较多的一个金融业态。原因其实非常简单。互联网金融对个人的融资成本目前还高达20%到25%以上。互联网金融本身是普惠金融,但当你给一个企业或者个人提供高达20%以上的融资成本,这已经很难说具备普惠性质了。为什么互联网金融平台要有这么高的融资成本?道理很简单,它从一开始就背离了互联网精神。什么叫互联网精神?就是简单、直接、有效。而我们所谓的互联网金融平台在开始就有很多环节,有地保公司,有很多地推人员,宜信有四万多地推人员,还有管理成本,还有比较高的行业薪酬。这些中间环节合在一起之后,使得它本身的融资成本已经非常高了。

从这个角度讲,未来到底该发展什么样的互联网金融?对这个业态本身,我个人是非常支持的态度。但现在很多从业人员,包括监管机构,并没有理清发展互联网金融的出发点。其实就是找到金融的本质,找到简单有效的方式,尽量提高金融中介的效率。如果背离这样一个本质,不管你尝试什么样的业态,用什么新的包装,最终出现金融风险的概率非常之大。

金融改革需要摒弃“修修补补”的思路

最后一点,我们该有什么样的政策建议?我们过去一段时间对金融体制一直是一种修修补补的思路。过去35年,中国经济改革、经济发展其实非常成功,我们一种比较压抑的金融政策本身使得我们金融体系本身对经济的支持也相对比较有利。但是,进入“新常态”之后,应该说我们对新的一种金融业态产生了新的需求,而政策制定方面其实没有跟上,还是一种修修补补的思路。

对这种思路,给大家看一个产业的例子。19世纪时,全球最大的行业其实是航运行业,当时最大的一个工具就是依靠风能的帆船。当时它遇到了蒸汽轮船的挑战,因为蒸汽机提供的动力更加可靠一些,可以逆流而上。但是,蒸汽轮船噪音非常大,不像帆船这么幽雅,所以当时对整个蒸汽轮船是排斥的。人们不断的通过小修小补应对一些挑战,下午是最后一个版本的帆船。但是最终,帆船还是被淘汰了。



我想说什么?应该到了我们回归金融本质的时候。可以这么讲,中国的制度基础决定了中国金融体系的行为模式,最终导致了我们现在金融的这样一种表现状况。从这个角度讲,未来的政策建议其实非常简单,就是回归到制度基础设施的建设上来。这里的含义其实就是我们所理解的所谓的供给侧改革。

政府绝对不要朝令夕改。另外,要降低金融的准入门槛,提升公共治理的水平,同时真正建立中国商业契约精神。我想可能这些东西做起来都很难,这也是为什么说到具体建议的时候可能我说不出太多。但是,有一点起码是可以作为的:中国过去35年改革成功很大的一个原因在于中国的民众、企业家跟政府之间形成一种默契,这种默契本身使得中国企业家、中国的民众,中国的政府对未来的经济发展是充满信心的。但是,最近民众和企业家对未来产生了很多质疑。所以,需要在短期内把这种默契重新恢复起来,给企业家、民众足够的信心,相信他们从上往下的创造能力,最终可能会出现有利于新的金融体系出现的新的制度设施。需要自下而上的市场力量,而不是顶层设计。

(注:本文为作者个人观点。责任编辑王昉 fang.wang@ftchinese.com
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 25, 2016, 09:04:02 AM



BUBBLE NUMBER THREE, MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES IS ABOUT TO POP IN CHINA
Our Reporter | March 25, 2016
rtr2es1x
First, China’s property bubble popped.

Then, China’s stock market bubble burst over the summer, and investors lost a ton of money before the government took control of the system.

Now, the concern floating around the world of markets is that the third in China’s ‘triple bubble’ is about to burst.

That bubble is credit, especially corporate bonds which have absolutely exploded over the past year as refugees from the other bubble bursts searched for yield.

This one is going to be for a very straight-forward reason too — supply.

Simply put, there are about to be too many bonds in China, and that could ultimately harm the weakest part of the Chinese economy, the debt-loaded zombie companies which helped form the property bubble and are now unable to turn a healthy profit.

Formation
Here’s how all of this happened. When the Chinese stock market went careening downwards last summer, a ton of the money that was invested in the market ran into the credit market, specifically corporate bonds.

“In our view, China is in the midst of a triple bubble, with the third-biggest credit bubble of all time, the largest investment bubble (proxied by the investment share of GDP) and the second-biggest real-estate bubble,” Credit Suisse analyst Andrew Garthwaite wrote in a note back in July.

This was great for China’s debt laden corporates. They could keep running on easy credit because demand was so high. Corporate bond issuance increased 21% from 2014 to 2015, and by the end of last year their total stock made up 21.6% of GDP as opposed 18.4% the year before, according to Societe Generale.

Chinese Treasury bond supply is set to increase too, from 936 billion yuan in 2015 to 1.4 trillion yuan in 2016.

At the same time, the government has been getting a move on an important project it has been working on for some time — turning local government debt from the country’s infrastructure boom into a real municipal bond market.

We’re talking a lot of money here. In March alone the government allowed 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) of local government debt to be converted into local government bonds (LGB). In 2016 analysts expect the government to issue another 6 trillion yuan in LGBs.

That’s a lot of bonds
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 25, 2016, 02:20:02 PM



2016年03月24日 07:22 AM
中國GDP增長數據可靠嗎?
美聯儲堪薩斯分行高級經濟學家 聶軍 為FT中文網撰稿
 

近兩年來,隨著中國增速持續放緩,全球資本市場對中國經濟前景的擔憂也逐漸增加,與之對應的是投資者越來越多地對中國所公佈GDP數字的可靠性產生質疑。為什麽會這樣?一個很直接的原因是中國GDP總增長數字和一些重要部門的指標看似有些不大一致,比如一些通常被市場用來衡量中國增速的重要指標存在明顯下滑,然而中國公佈的總增長速度數據確依然保持相對穩定,這類部門指標比較典型的包括全國用電量或者中國大宗商品的進口數量等。

拋開這些質疑的對錯,這些對中國增速的不確定及質疑已經實實在在的給全球帶來了動盪。一個最近的例子就是年初全球金融市場的波動。雖然這次波動直接始於人民幣相對美元的貶值而引發的全球股市的拋售,其背後邏輯依然指向全球投資者對中國經濟的擔憂。一般來說,一個國家貨幣的強弱與其經濟的景氣程度有著緊密的聯系:國家經濟景氣會增加人們對其貨幣的需求從而帶動其貨幣走強;反之,則會帶動貨幣走弱。然而,這個關系反過來不一定成立,匯率的短期下滑不一定代表經濟下滑,因為匯率短期波動可能是由於市場預期偏離實體經濟基本面所導致的。因此,在中國GDP數據顯示相對穩定的情況下,這次全球金融市場的震盪再次反應的是投資者對中國經濟增速的質疑。

當然這些質疑本身也並非毫無道理,畢竟作為占據世界大宗商品市場一半的主宰者,中國對外進口大宗商品的數量一直被密切關註,中國各部門的用電量也是有據可查的。因此,當這些相對容易查證的行業數據發生嚴重下滑而中國公佈的GDP增速卻變化不大的時候,市場很容易會對後者表示質疑。

然而筆者認為,通過某一兩個部門的分數據去判斷中國經濟的全貌明顯過於武斷。一個可能原因是中國在所處的轉型階段中,各個部門的相對增長速度發生了變化。因此,一些部門增速的大幅放緩不能斷定中國經濟總體增速的急劇下滑;同理,另一些部門的相對走強也不能斷定中國經濟總體增長的加速。為了全面的檢驗中國GDP增長數據是否依然能夠較好的體現中國經濟增長的基本情況,我們需要檢驗中國GDP數據刻畫的總增速是否和來自不同部門的重要指標聯合體現出來的增速保持一致,即中國GDP增速數據是否和各部門重要指標具有一致性。


為了檢驗這樣的一致性,我們選取了市場關註的有關製造業、消費部門、房地產部門和服務部門的13個指標。在選取這些指標時,我們盡量避免指標從GDP的直接構成成分中選取。例如,對於房地產行業我們選取的是銷售和新開工的面積——這兩個指標可以衡量房地產投資的強弱但又未直接用來計算GDP。又比如,對於服務業我們選取了來自統計局的PMI服務指數和來自財新的PMI服務指數,這些指數是目前國際市場通常關註並認可的對服務業進行衡量的指標,並且與GDP計算不產生直接關系。總的來說,盡管這些選取的指標的來源、頻率不盡相同,也不是GDP直接構成部門,但卻能較全面的刻畫中國經濟的好壞,構成了GDP數字的有效性檢驗的基礎。

我們構造的指數是基於這些指標的一個線性回歸。我們主要的結論是這個指數在2008-2014年期間和官方公佈的實際GDP增長速度非常吻合。盡管這些指標在這期間有各自的運行軌道,基於它們所構造的這個指數卻和中國GDP增速的軌跡非常一致。這表明中國GDP增速和這些指標存在相對穩定的關系,中國GDP總增速和這些來自不同部門的數據有較強的一致性
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 25, 2016, 02:26:17 PM



不良贷款激增 中国银行业净利受挫
国际新闻 头条 国际  2016-03-25 07:12

 
(北京24日讯)中国大型银行过去十多年来的净利不断增长局面或已在去年终结,随着不良贷款激增危及派息能力,今年形势恐更糟糕。
接受彭博调查的分析员预测,中国大型银行下周发布的业绩或将显示,它们去年的净利下降0.3%,2004至2014年间的净利平均增长25%局面就此终结。
中国经济增速降至25年来最低水平,推动中资银行不良贷款规模升至10年高点。
中国政府正考虑采用1999年银行业危机爆发后用于清理银行资产负债表的债转股等措施,来解决呆账问题。
不良贷款拨备进一步上升,令投资者猜测银行会减少派息,推动大型银行估值上月降至历史最低水平。
麦格理驻上海分析员马提尔思密斯指,大多数投资者明显看空,即使银行净利超出预期可能也不会改变他们的观点。
中国银监会数据显示,在经济增长放缓、股市动荡和制造业去产能的背景下,中国银行业呆账去年跃升51%,达到1.27兆人民币(约7900亿令吉
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 25, 2016, 04:47:18 PM



2016年03月25日 07:30 AM
以“一带一路”激活“新未来”
中央党校国际战略研究所教授 赵磊 为英国《金融时报》中文网撰稿
 

中国国务院总理李克强3月24日上午在博鳌亚洲论坛2016年年会开幕式上发表演讲时指出,中方愿将“一带一路”的倡议与地区国家及区域组织发展战略对接,打造规划衔接、生产融合、协同跟进的地区发展新格局;支持互联互通、产能合作等项目,让地区人民共享融合发展的红利。的确,亚洲是全球最具活力的地区,但依然有痛点,不联不通就是痛点,通过“一带一路”的五通建设,亚洲以及世界的共同体前景将更加聚化,即以“互联互通”激活“新未来”。今天,“一带一路”需要更多的标志性项目落地,需要实现硬联通与软联通的结合,需要以通心工程解决“信任稀缺”的问题。虽然叫亚洲论坛,但博鳌的关注点与影响力已经遍及全世界。

中国的聚光灯效应在放大

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笔者最近先后赴澳大利亚、捷克、意大利、英国等西方经济体调研“一带一路”。总体感觉是,西方国家高度关注中国的发展,认为中国拥有全球角色。具体来说,对中国的赞誉与期望集中在几下几点:中国是国际社会的核心国家,是全球治理的支柱国家(pillar);对中国预见以及规划未来的能力印象深刻,认为中国领导层有很强的顶层设置能力;在全球化时代,各个国家都共享着中国发展的成就,中国对世界经济的贡献很大,中国脱贫的规模和难度是世界上其他国家不可比拟的;希望加强同中国的知识流动,加强人文交流。

与此同时,西方经济体特别是欧洲对目前的发展状况有消极情绪,认为自身的竞争力在不断下降。笔者在调研过程中经常听到如下的表述:欧洲地区的危机是长期性的,涉及到政治、经济、社会等深层次结构性问题;欧洲地区的危机是系统问题,而不仅仅是政策问题,因此要系统性地改造,而不是技术性地改良。在经济合作方面,相关国家希望在环保、现代农业、高科技、医疗保健、社会政策等领域加强同中国的合作,主动将其规划对接中国的“一带一路”倡议。

在亚洲,周边国家的领导人对中国经济多持积极认可态度。他们认为,中国经济增速减慢,但依然超过诸多西方经济体。亚洲诸多国家希望利用博鳌论坛以及“一带一路”把握住中国机遇。例如,中澳自贸协定的签署,对中澳关系影响很大,澳方认为中澳关系处于黄金期,两国在投资、贸易以及人文交流方面非常活跃。很多澳大利亚企业正在思考,高工资但高素质的澳大利亚人如何增强国家竞争力,通过“一带一路”倡议打开中国市场。澳洲的传统合作伙伴是欧美,现在经济上向北看,集中精力开拓亚洲,特别是中国。在调研期间,澳方问得最多的问题就是:“一带一路”包不包括澳大利亚,“一带一路”对澳洲和亚太究竟意味着什么,“一带一路”和亚投行的关系如何定位,等等。这一方面反映出,澳方高度关注中方倡议,但对“一带一路”的认知基础薄弱(比如,认为“一带一路”的核心是基建项目和输出过剩产能),另一方面也说明我方工作力度不够、针对性不强。与国内不断有智库、商会、媒体去欧洲、中亚等地区宣讲、推介“一带一路”项目相比,我们事实上忽视了澳洲等亚太国家在“一带一路”中的优势和机遇
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 27, 2016, 04:16:06 PM



China industrial company profits return to growth in January-February
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A worker polishes steel coils at a factory of Dongbei Special Steel Group in Dalian, China.
China Daily | Reuters
A worker polishes steel coils at a factory of Dongbei Special Steel Group in Dalian, China.
China's industrial profits returned to growth in the first two months of 2016, despite weakening business conditions and slowing economic growth in the world's second-largest economy.

Profits earned by Chinese industrial firms in January and February combined rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier, totaling 780.7 billion yuan ($119.8 billion) in the two-month period, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Sunday.

That compared with an annual fall of 4.7 percent in December 2015, which was the seventh straight month of decline.

The positive trend was driven in part by quicker product sales of industrial firms and a narrowing in the decline of industrial producer prices, said He Ping, an NBS official, in a statement accompanying the data.

The oil processing, electrical machinery and food sectors contributed significantly to growth in profits, He added, saying the sectors benefited from lower oil prices.

Growth in the food industry was driven by strong demand as well as a decline in prices for some raw materials, the statement added.

Paramilitary policemen wearing masks march on a cold morning amid heavy smog at Tiananmen Square in Beijing.
This is what's choking the Chinese economy
The bureau always gives a combined profit figure for the first two months of each year to smooth out seasonal distortions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday, when most companies are closed for the long celebrations.

China's producer prices fell for the 48th month in a row in February though their pace of decline eased, highlighting the deeply entrenched pressures facing its manufacturers.

China's Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that the country has enough policy tools to keep the economy stable despite "deep rooted" structural problems and downward pressure.

Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 6.5 percent to 7 percent for this year, introducing a band rather than a hard target as it seeks greater flexibility in juggling growth, job creation and restructuring of a host of "zombie companies" in bloated industries.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 28, 2016, 08:20:23 PM



China Beige Book Reveals Employment Plunges To 4-Year Low, Capex Worst In History
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2016 07:49 -0400

Beige Book China Reuters


 
inShare
 
 
Back in December, New York-based China Beige Book International released what they called a “disturbing” set of data that pointed to pronounced weakness in the Chinese economy.

“National sales revenue, volumes, output, prices, profits, hiring, borrowing, and capital expenditure were all weaker than the prior three months,” the firm - whose CBB is modeled on the Fed’s survey of US economic conditions and is supposed to provide a more objective assessment of China’s economic health than the goalseeked figures that emanate from the NBS - remarked.

In the three months since the CBB’s last report, we haven’t seen a whole lot in the way of positive data that would have caused us to believe that things are looking up. Exports, for instance, cratered more than 20% in RMB terms last month and 25% in USD terms - the third worst performance in history.



Sure enough, the CBB’s latest quarterly read on the Chinese economy betrays more pervasive problems including a persistent lack of hiring and a disheartening dearth of capex. “Only 33% of firms reported capital expenditure growth in the first quarter, the lowest in the survey's five-year history,” Reuters reports, adding that “the share of firms reporting capex growth has fallen by over 40 percent since the second quarter of 2014.”

The CBB’s survey, which includes 2,200 companies and 160 bankers, showed that although profits have risen, hiring has collapsed to a four-year low and that poses a very real problem for the Party which is perpetually concerned with optics. “The weakness in the job market hits at a paramount concern for the Chinese Communist Party,” WSJ notes, before quoting CBB president Leland Miller, who said the following in the report:

“The party cares very much about the state of the labor market. The first quarter may therefore be one of the rare occasions when investors see the data and react mostly with relief, while the results cause some mild panic back in Beijing.”
“Our data show that firms first stopped borrowing, then cut spending and now are becoming allergic to hiring,” Miller continues.

Right. And if there’s anything the politburo does not need in the current environment, it’s for firms to develop a hiring “allergy.”

As we’ve documented exhaustively of late, China is staring down what may end up being a catastrophic employment crisis as the government must choose between allowing an acute industrial overcapacity problem to sink the entire economy or else move to implement a massive restructuring of elephantine SOEs.

Reforming grossly inefficient government enterprises will likely cost hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs and if Beijing can’t manage to mitigate the situation by reassigning workers or otherwise providing some manner of social safety net, they’ll be widespread social unrest.

Of course besides the whole “popular revolt”/ “angry coup” issue, mass layoffs also do not bode well for China’s nascent transition from a smokestack economy to an economic model that revolves around consumption and services. As we put it earlier this month, “if, as the PBoC says, China intends to depend on domestic consumption rather than exports to fuel growth, then someone had better get to explaining how exactly it is that hundreds of thousands of recently jobless factory workers are going to be able to power the hoped-for but still nascent transformation.”

On that note, we close with the following from WSJ’s take on the latest CBB survey:

The government’s bid to regear the economy toward consumption and services and away from manufacturing and investment is having mixed results, at least this quarter, the survey found. Revenue growth in services and in retail – especially furniture, appliances and clothing — slowed in the first quarter, while holding steady in manufacturing
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 29, 2016, 02:11:12 PM



2016年03月28日 17:42 PM
中国面临钢铁业下岗工人安置难题
英国《金融时报》 克里斯蒂安•谢泼德 唐山, 杨缘 香港报道
 

在中国关闭数十家业绩不良的矿山和钢厂之际,数百万人将失去工作岗位。为此,中国政府已承诺要减缓由此带来的打击,拨款1000亿元人民币(合154亿美元)资金,帮助将工人“重新安置”到繁荣的服务业。

不过,查访一下唐山附近,就会发现这样的计划有多乐观。唐山是中国位于河北省的一座钢铁之都,在北京东南面大约260公里处。

本月早些时候在一年一度的新闻发布会上,中国总理李克强曾发誓说,中国会避免出现大规模下岗潮。尽管如此,唐山炼钢厂迁安轧一钢铁集团(Qianan Zhayi Steel)还是成为最新一家开始关闭高炉的炼钢厂。


陈吉宇(Chen Jiyu,音译)一根接着一根地抽着烟,这位钢厂的焊工早已料到会停业:公司显然已经破产。然而,等到消息真的传来时,他已经三个月没有领到工资了,而他在十年前中学毕业以来就一直在干这份工作。他说,他未曾获得政府或公司的任何援助:“我根本睡不着觉。”

李克强提到的资金曾承诺要帮助工人在不断增长的服务业找到新机遇。对陈吉宇来说,他希望他的焊工技能可以用在汽车行业。“修转动的机器和修车差不多,对吧?”

服务业占中国经济的比重已超过了一度是中共工人阶级骄傲的重工业。然而在唐山这样处境艰难的钢铁城,服务业可能不足以吸收闲置的资源。40年前,唐山曾遭遇地震,是全球死亡人数最多的地震之一。如今,从灾害中恢复过来的唐山市,钢产量几乎相当于美国全国的产量。

在唐山各钢铁厂周边的街道上,到处是空旷的店铺和餐馆,覆盖着灰尘的窗户上乐观地贴着“出租”标记。市中心周围环绕着成片的空置公寓大楼。由于稳定就业的劳动力人口减少,发展服务业或刺激更多楼盘建设活动的需求也相应减少。

上世纪90年代,安盛投资管理有限公司(Axa Investment Managers)的姚远(Aidan Yao)在陷入衰退的中国东北长大。当时,上一轮工业破产潮导致约3000万工人下岗。姚远表示:“历史正在重复自身。问题在于,当地经济是否有能力适应这轮调整的速度。”

目前,下岗现象已经在大量出现。根据中国国内媒体的报道,去年11月唐山迁安区松汀钢铁厂(Songting Steel)停产,曾导致6000名工人下岗。河北省委副书记张庆伟曾表示,河北省政府预计会在今后五年关闭或整合60%的钢铁企业

中国劳工通讯(China Labour Bulletin)的杰弗里•克罗塞尔(Geoffrey Crothall)表示:“首先下岗的将是年纪较大的工人。然而服务业需要的却是较年轻、懂技术,愿意压低工资、延长工作时间的工人。”自2015年初以来,他所在的组织在河北省统计到近300次工人罢工,是中国罢工次数最多的省份之一。

在唐山市中心附近,39岁的瑞丰钢厂工程师张先生休假越来越多。不上班的时候,他就在家里盘算着一旦下岗后他所希望创办的企业。

张先生希望自己能够成为李克强“大众创业、万众创新”运动的正面例子。中国政府试图通过“大众专业、万众创新”运动,增加小企业和初创企业的数目。不过,按照张先生自己的解释,他的情况要特殊一些
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 30, 2016, 06:51:30 PM



人行前委員:中國陷通縮、避免硬著陸得靠財政刺激
回應(0) 人氣(469) 收藏(0) 2016/03/30 12:54
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-03-30 12:54:37 記者 賴宏昌 報導
中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會前委員余永定日前在《Project Syndicate》發表專文指出,中國目前仍深陷通貨緊縮當中,這從生產者物價指數(PPI)跌跌不休(註:截至2016年2月為止已連續48個月呈現負成長)以及GDP平減指數(GDP deflator)自2015年初起出現負值就可以看得出來。他說,中國目前正面臨兩種通縮螺旋的糾纏,一種是產能過剩的通縮螺旋、一種是債務通縮(debt deflation)螺旋。在兩種狀況下,企業都將被迫去槓桿、減少投資。余永定指出,基於中國企業負債金額已處於非常高水準、通縮所引發的實質負債上揚恐將對金融穩定帶來嚴重的後果。
余永定認為,中國若想避免硬著陸、中央政府在規劃新基礎建設投資刺激時勢必得比2008年的4兆元方案更加審慎才行。他建議財源應來自政府公債,搭配人民銀行將中期貨幣政策目標自貨幣供給轉為鎖定基準利率。
余永定去年4月在中國日報發表評論文章時指出,就絕對金額而言中國企業負債金額高居全球之冠、企業負債GDP占比也是世界第一。

CNBC報導,亞洲開發銀行(ADB)30日發表報告指出,決策者在評估通膨時不應忽視生產者物價指數(PPI),因為持續下滑的PPI恐將加重生產者的債務負擔、進而壓抑投資,對經濟的傷害程度可能勝過消費者物價指數(CPI)的下挫。
中國國務院發展研究中心29日在《人民日報》撰文指出,2015年底中國鋼鐵產能利用率降至70%左右、煤炭產能利用率更低,產能過剩問題十分突出;商品房待售面積達7.2億平方米、創下歷史新高,三四線城市庫存壓力很大。
《中國金融投資網(China Money Network)》3月9日報導,根據KKR & Co.(全球著名私募股權公司)全球總經資產配置部主管Henry McVey發表的報告,受沉重債務以及過剩產能的影響,中國GDP平減指數(GDP deflator)目前是-80個基點,在此同時名目GDP增幅自2011年第2季的19.6%大跌至6.0%。關注名目GDP是因為當地企業是用名目營收去支應日益沉重的債務負擔。如果中國繼續忽視「通縮、資本外流」這兩大利空,當地GDP成長率走勢可能會複製日本1990年代模式。
澳盛(ANZ)大中華地區首席經濟學家劉利剛(Li-gang Liu)今年初指出,中國目前正經歷由「債務通縮(debt deflation)」所引發的景氣下行循環,這段期間傳統的財政、貨幣政策將會逐漸喪失經濟刺激效力。這意味著加速結構性改革會比設法提振短期成長還要來得重要


全文網址: http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=2408ea5a-5508-4f4c-8148-f2ad9fe8f9e6&c=MB010000#ixzz44NgzZ4PK
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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 31, 2016, 07:18:47 AM



2016年03月31日 06:03 AM
中国经济转型带来全球挑战
作者:英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员 马丁•沃尔夫
 

中国正在尝试进行的经济转型对新兴国家乃至整个世界都将产生深远影响。短期内,挑战在于管控好中国经济活动可能出现的大幅放缓带来的溢出效应。长远来看,挑战在于如何让一个金融大国融入全球经济。然而,实际上,短期的发展变化同样将影响长期。

印度最新的经济调查(Economic Survey)提供了一个发人深思的危机分类法。该调查认为,一场危机造成的外部冲击取决于危机是否发生在具有系统重要性的国家、是否是财政或私人借债的结果,以及受影响国家的货币是升值还是贬值。这种分析方法与中国有什么关系呢?答案是,中国是一个具有系统重要性的国家,而且企业债务水平高、上升迅速。这有可能导致投资骤停和货币快速贬值。

亲爱的读者,我们注意到您在30天内连续阅读了5篇以上文章,如果您喜欢FT中文网,我们诚邀您登录访问或免费注册为FT中文网的会员。

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这种急剧放缓的前景并非完全不可能出现。企业债务最终不可持续的增长,加上需求依赖于超高投资率,共同造成了中国经济的脆弱性。随着经济增速放缓至7%以下,接近国内生产总值(GDP) 45%的投资率不再具有经济合理性。由于接近三分之二的投资由私营部门完成,市场力量或将强行推进一轮痛苦的调整。

人们或许可以设想中国政府的两种反应:像西方遭遇金融危机时那样大幅增加财政赤字,或者采取更激进的货币政策。但人民币走弱或许也会受到欢迎,这样可以抵消国内的通缩压力。在本月北京举行的中国发展高层论坛(China Development Forum)上,中国央行(PBoC)行长周小川暗示,中国过去大规模(无计划)积累起来的外汇储备出现下降是合情合理的。但这肯定有一定的限度。对资本外流的管控也可能收紧,即便这样做有悖于中国开放资本账户的计划(见图表)。


虽然中国经济一直在放缓,货币和信贷政策不断放松,汇率下跌,但到目前为止还看不到发生此种危机的迹象。而且,资本外流的主要推动力似乎是外币贷款提前还款和“套利交易”平仓——在一定程度上由对人民币贬值风险上升的预期引发。另外,需求增长虽然放缓,但肯定没有崩溃。目前看起来还不错。但故事并未结束
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 01, 2016, 03:23:43 PM



2016年04月01日 13:41 PM
中国将在吉布提建首个海外军事基地
英国《金融时报》 卡特里娜•曼森 吉布提报道
 

中国将在有史以来的首个海外军事基地部署“几千名”作战人员和工作人员,这是中国武装部队第一次在海外部署永久性力量。

新的海军基地将与美国庞大的吉布提非洲驻军总部处于同一座城市里。在位于“非洲之角”的吉布提,美国拥有一处驻扎着4500人的基地,执行地区反恐作战任务。日本唯一的海外军事基地也在吉布提。日本和中国已因东中国海(South China Sea)领土争端而陷入紧张对峙。

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中国此举加剧了人们的担心:向来着眼国内、对外采取不干预态度的中国,开始转变政策,把自己确立为一个全球军事强国。吉布提占据着由印度洋通往红海的南部入口,战略位置至关重要,经由此地附近的航运量占到全球总量的30%。

中国已誓言把其对全球维和行动的贡献提高近三倍,将维和常备部队增至8000人,并公开加强飞机和潜艇实力,以履行其所称的帮助确保全球和平与稳定的新责任。


迄今为止,中国对吉布提基地的目的所说甚少,提到吉布提军事设施时非常低调,比如把新基地称为供海军休整与补给的“后勤设施”,其功能包括为打击海盗的行动提供支援。中国并未提供有关新基地人员数量的任何信息。

但在接受英国《金融时报》采访时,吉布提外长马哈茂德•阿里•优素福(Mahmoud Ali Youssouf)首次披露了中国在这个小国的军事存在的可能规模。吉布提面积虽小,但地理位置具有战略重要性,位于通往苏伊士运河(Suez Canal)的曼德海峡(Bab el-Mandeb Staits)入口处。

2014年,美国同意把付给吉布提的军事基地年租金增加近一倍,至6300万美元。优素福告诉英国《金融时报》,中国每年向吉布提支付的基地租金将达2000万美元,基地可能驻扎“几千名”作战人员和行政人员。优素福表示,中国跟美国一样,与吉布提签订了10年期合同,并拥有续签10年的选择权。

“合同与协议的条款写得清清楚楚,对每个请求在吉布提部署军事存在的国家都是相同的,”优素福说。他接着表示,中国的主要目的是使用该海军基地保护自己的国家利益——监控通过曼德海峡的中国商船,以及进行海军燃料和物资的补给。

美国驻吉布提大使汤姆•凯利(Tom Kelly)向英国《金融时报》表示,对部署在同一国家内的美中两国军事基地进行管控,对“有关各方来说都将是一次挑战”。人们的担忧包括美国基地活动被窃听(美军范围广泛的反恐行动大多是秘密进行的)、中国或许会发展一系列基地对进入欧洲的水道进行战略控制等等。

优素福称,中国计划在吉布提建设新的大型机场,并将拥有与美国和法国相同的使用无人机的权利。

“美国人(在这里)拥有足够的技术、足够的战斗机、足够的无人机来控制这里乃至更多地区的每一寸土地,”优素福称,“中国人为什么不该拥有同样的、使用这些资源的权利……来维持和保护他们在曼德海峡的利益?为什么?”

中国外交部拒绝回应就新基地相关问题置评的请求。

相反,中国有关这座新基地的措辞旨在展示自己是新兴但负责的全球事务参与者,为现有的反海盗巡逻和非洲大陆上的维和任务提供支持。非洲大陆是中国的投资集中地。2008年以来,中国派遣了海军舰只在距吉布提和索马里不远的亚丁湾(Gulf of Aden)巡逻,这是逾600年以来中国首次派遣海军舰只在其领海以外地区执行任务
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 01, 2016, 08:16:10 PM



财经
繼穆迪後標普也調降 中港信評展望轉至負面
 18点阅   2016年4月01日
隨著穆迪、標普陸續下調中港展望至負面,有專家認為惠譽遲早會跟進。
隨著穆迪、標普陸續下調中港展望至負面,有專家認為惠譽遲早會跟進。
 (上海1日訊)繼穆迪(Moody’s)之后,標普(S&P)今日亦調降中國主權債信評等展望,由“穩定”降至“負面”,主要考慮到中國經濟重新平衡恐較預期慢,一國兩制的香港受到和中國金融、經濟關係密切的拖累,風險也升高。

 “自由時報”報導,標普確認中國長期主權信評“AA-”,香港信評“AAA”,但兩者評級展望都降至“負面”。受此消息衝擊,31日離岸人民幣盤中應聲走貶至6.4664兌一美元,富時A50指數跌逾2%。



 穆迪本月初甫接連調降中國主權信評展望、數十家中國國有企業及金融機構信評展望至“負面”,隨后也調降香港信評展望至“負面”,主要是一國兩制政策使中國對香港政治影響力增加、及兩地經濟緊密連結的風險升高。

投資佔GDP超標

 標普指出,調降信評展望反映該機構預期,中國政府信用面臨的經濟和金融風險正逐漸升高;未來5年,中國經濟重新平衡的進展恐緩慢,信貸成長速度也將趨緩。

 該機構也預測,未來3年中國經濟成長年增率雖在6%或以上,但中國政府和企業槓桿率可能惡化,投資佔國內生產總值比率將遠高于該機構評估的可持續水準30%至35%,創下所有評級的國家中最高水準。

 標普說,中國可能試圖擴大信貸,以將國內生產總值成長率穩定在6.5%或以上、允許信貸增長率遠高於名義國內生產總值成長率;一旦看到這種可能性增加,標普就可能下調中國信評。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 05, 2016, 07:37:15 AM



2016年04月05日 06:17 AM
“富裕国家的中国溢出效应将越来越大”
英国《金融时报》 肖恩•唐南 华盛顿报道
 

国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称,中国等新兴市场对发达经济体构成越来越大的风险,发展中经济体发生的事件在越来越大的程度上影响着较富裕国家金融市场的价格走势。

IMF经济学家们昨日表示,市场还只是刚刚开始感受到中国的影响;随着中国与全球经济其它部分的金融联系不断增多,这种影响在未来几年里很可能不断加大。

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“中国对全球金融市场产生的溢出效应很可能将在未来几年里显著加大,”他们在即将发表的《全球金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)的一章里表示。IMF和世界银行(World Bank)下周将举行春季会议。

IMF发出警告之际,外界担忧中国经济增长放缓和中国领导层推动经济转型(从制成品出口和投资驱动转向在更大程度上依赖国内消费)的努力。


与此同时,美联储(Federal Reserve)等发达经济体的央行日益在运筹帷幄时考虑中国等新兴市场的事态。

IMF称,新兴经济体的事态对发达市场产生的影响越来越大,已达到“溢出效应”占发达经济体股市和汇市三分之一价格变动的地步。

IMF称,尽管近几个月从中国传出的新闻在很大程度上导致大宗商品等市场的动荡,但现实是中国与外部世界的直接金融市场联系仍相对较小。

但IMF经济学家们表示,针对外资进入中国债券以及其它市场的严格限制已开始放宽,绕开资本管制的途径也变得越来越多。其结果是,随着中国的市场继续加大开放,中国对金融市场产生的直接影响很可能有增无减。

“预计中国与世界其他地区的金融一体化将会加速,中国在海外的金融影响力将很可能赶上其经济实力,”这些经济学家写道。

IMF表示,举例来说,中国债券市场的规模已经达到6.7万亿美元,位列世界第三,在过去五年里年均扩大22%。在去年出台改革、允许各国央行和主权财富基金投资之前,该市场对境外投资者基本上是关闭的。

去年的有限开放很可能导致各国央行把更多资源配置到中国资产。与此同时,中国成功推动人民币加入特别提款权(SDR)精英货币篮子、成为这种IMF事实上的货币的估值货币之一。IMF称,“中国债券和股票市场的(未来)开放将对全球资产配置产生重大影响”。

该组织表示,近期金融市场的动荡在很大程度上被归咎于北京方面对其政策目标缺乏明确沟通,而越来越大的溢出效应风险说明了这一局面如何以及为什么需要改变。

译者/和风
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 05, 2016, 07:39:26 AM



2016年04月05日 06:17 AM
中国经济调整的两难困境
FT中文网公共政策与评论主编 刘波 整理
 

随着全球经济继续在不确定中徘徊,全世界的眼光都聚焦到了中国身上,而中国人也对本国经济充满关切,既希望本国经济学家做出分析和预测,也很在意“旁观者”的看法。3月22日,在FT中文网举办的一次座谈会暨读者见面会上,英国《金融时报》副总编、首席经济评论员马丁·沃尔夫和任职于中国社会科学院的中国经济学家余永定,就此进行了一场高端对话。座谈会由英国《金融时报》中文网总编辑王丰主持。



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座谈会以沃尔夫的演讲开始。沃尔夫首先高度赞扬了中国已经取得的经济发展成就。他认为,如果中国能在未来的二三十年里延续自1970年代末以来的发展速度和轨迹,就能实现跃升为发达国家的梦想。目前中国的历史性转型进程已走到了半山腰,但未来还有不少的困难和挑战。

中国前总理温家宝曾表示,中国经济是“不稳定、不平衡、不协调、不可持续的”,这句话曾经被西方媒体广泛引用,这次被沃尔夫再度引用。而且在沃尔夫看来,当前这些问题变得更加突出了。用曾任美国总统尼克松的经济顾问的赫伯特·斯坦的话说“无法永远维系的东西,注定要终结”,因而中国必须认真对待经济增长之旅戛然而止的可能性。


沃尔夫承认,30多年来中国的经济增长表现非同凡响,增速甚至高于比中国更早“腾飞”的一些东亚国家和地区,如日本、韩国等。美国一直是中国等后发国家增长的参照系,而目前中国以购买力平价折算的人均GDP与美国的比例差距,相当于1980年代中期韩国与美国的差距。中国照这样发展下去,再需要30年,就能达到目前韩国与美国相比的繁荣程度。而且到那时中国经济规模将比北美和欧洲加起来还要庞大,这将是非常耀眼的成绩。

但是,中国要完成追赶西方的漫长旅程,需要克服五个障碍。首先,非常态的高速发展总是存在重新归于平庸的趋势,这个现象比长期高速增长更为常见。沃尔夫举例说,在1971年,经济学家曾对日本、台湾、墨西哥和巴西四个经济体寄予厚望,但后两个经济体最终令人失望地停滞了下来。中国需要提防类似的命运。

沃尔夫认为,因为中国经济规模非常庞大,所以如果要实现“成为高收入国家”的目标(即人均GDP数值达到同期美国的四分之三左右),中国经济规模在未来20-30年里应该增长至目前的5倍左右,而这个任务很艰巨。而且,中国将对世界环境和经济承载能力造成严峻压力,这需要中国在大幅提高能源利用效率,尤其是在碳排放方面。中国的高速增长还会冲击全球货币和金融体系,以及国际机构和国际关系。

第三个障碍是中国的政治改革。根据世界银行的排名,中国目前在政府负责性、有效性、监管质量、法治水平和腐败防控等方面的排名,距离作为一个如此重要的国家而受到的期待尚有一定的距离。如果中国希望变成发达国家,必须在这些指标上有明显提升。

第四个问题是中国已经到达“刘易斯拐点”。本世纪以来,中国实际工资快速上升。2012年以来,中国潜在实际增长率已经下降到7%甚至更低。要适应经济增速放缓同时劳动力成本变高的新现实,对中国而言绝非易事。沃尔夫打比方说,当自行车的速度减慢时,骑起来会变得更困难
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 06, 2016, 05:41:17 PM



Wednesday, 06 April 2016 15:23
This is why a Chinese HARD LANDING is unlikely - Fitch
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  This is why a Chinese HARD LANDING is unlikely - Fitch
The slowdown in China worrying global investors is unlikely to result in a hard landing although high debt levels are a concern, said Fitch Ratings in a special report released on Wednesday.

Fitch is still maintaining its stable outlook on China's credit rating for now, unlike peers Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Servicewho have lowered the outlook in recent weeks amid concerns over debt levels in the world's second-largest economy.

 

"Fitch Ratings believes strongly that China has the administrative and financial resources to avoid a disruptive slowdown to near-zero growth over the rating outlook horizon of about two years," the agency said in an announcement.

Fitch has a A+ sovereign rating on China but has not raised it to AA due to "high and rising" leverage in the economy which it said is a source of "systemic vulnerability."

Fitch expects China's economy to grow between 6 to 6.5 percent in 2016 and 2017. The country's official growth target is 6.5 to 7 percent this year.

China's currency has come under scrutiny since a hefty devaluation last August rocked global financial markets and fueled a surge in capital outflows amid expectations that authorities will guide the yuan lower to bolster the economy.

The ratings agency thinks China "has the will and the means not to devalue the yuan substantially against its new basket."

"There would be risks and costs with a large devaluation. Such a development would be a major negative shock for the global economy that could rebound on China by generating systemic stress among emerging markets globally, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and provoking a backlash from global trade partners – it could even mean the unraveling of the current open global trading regime."



A large devaluation would also undermine the progress that China has made so far on its transition to a greater emphasis on consumption from an earlier reliance on manufacturing, as a weaker currency would depress household real incomes and strengthen the profitability of exporting companies, Fitch said.

High leverage is still the key concern for the economy with the stock of aggregate financing, excluding equity-raising, rising to 198 percent of GDP by end-2015 from 115 percent at end-2008, according to official data.

Fitch says this was likely closer to 250 percent in 2015 and economic targets agreed at the National People's Congress this year suggest that authorities are "content" to see the country's debt continue to rise in 2016 with aggregate financing moving up by 13 percent, the ratings agency added.

 

China however will be able to weather the uncertainties due to its unique financial system.

"China's financial system is dominated by banks and funded overwhelmingly by retail deposits. Both the banks and borrowers are either state-owned or heavily state-influenced. These factors combine to suggest that the kind of collapse of confidence among creditors that might precipitate a financial crisis is unlikely in China," Fitch said.

In the long term, structural reforms will be key as the current credit-driven, investment-intensive growth pattern is unsustainable, said Fitch.

The restructuring of state-owned enterprises this time is also likely to be more gradual than the same process in the late 1990s with mass privatization and widespread layoffs not likely outcomes



Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=613361:this-is-why-a-chinese-hard-*&Itemid=3#ixzz452KwemxF
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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 07, 2016, 10:52:49 AM



2016年04月07日 06:11 AM
如何理解中国经济系统性风险?
苏格兰皇家银行中国首席经济学家 胡志鹏 为FT中文网撰稿
 

国际评级机构穆迪和标普近期相继下调了中国的主权评级展望,引发了市场的广泛关注和财政部的强烈反驳。市场的担忧究竟有没有道理?我们应该如何理解中国经济的系统性风险?系统性风险是理解当前中国宏观经济形势的关键。

去年8月至今年1月恐慌性换汇背后,不仅是贬值预期作祟,中国的主权风险溢价飙升也起到了推波助澜的作用——正是后者,导致中国经济风险调整后的收益率大幅滑坡,加剧了资本流出。虽然近两个月市场情绪好转、风险偏好回暖,但以CDS(Credit Default Swap, 信用违约互换)衡量的中国主权风险溢价仍迟迟未能回落至去年8月汇改前的水平。市场定价短期内难免受情绪干扰,但在较长时间维度下自有其内在逻辑。

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在笔者看来,随着经济和金融体系内在联系日趋紧密、传导不断深化,中国经济积累至今的各种局部失衡和隐患,日益演变为一个相互强化的正反馈机制:

首先,作为经济运行核心的企业部门已坠入“债务-通缩”陷阱。按笔者估算,过去5年间,以国有企业为代表、包含地方融资平台在内的企业部门债务余额大幅扩张了120%。其债务率(债务/GDP)急速膨胀了40个百分点左右,远超其他主要经济体。与此同时,工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)却连续4年下跌,而GDP平减指数也在去年陷入通缩。通缩造成实际利率居高不下,推高了债务负担。二者转而抑制总需求、加剧通缩。这导致名义GDP增速在短短5年内急剧下滑了12个百分点(其中工业部门名义GDP增速更是由5年前的20%多大幅滑坡至-0.4%),进一步推高债务率、形成恶性循环。


其次,企业部门景气恶化激化了其他领域的矛盾和隐患:(1)银行体系坏账压力剧增。不良贷款和关注类贷款余额过去一年便大幅增加了41%;(2)实体经济回报率低迷、流动性充裕的背景下,资产价格泡沫(如股市、一线城市房价等)此起彼伏,不断冲击金融体系稳定;(3)资本外流和贬值压力难以消退。

最后,上述各隐患相互共振,通过资金、信心和预期等渠道反过来抑制实体经济,进一步加剧了经济金融体系的脆弱性。与此同时,监管部门缺乏协调的被动应对更是火上浇油。

由此,整个系统加速滑向动态不稳定的路径。正反馈机制是理解这一局面的关键。片面关注其中的某一些问题、而忽略各因素间相互强化的内在联系,都会失之偏颇。

这一困局背后固然有周期性因素的影响,如房地产调整、外需不振。但追根溯源,维稳导向下政府对经济活动的干预日益僵化,使得经济无法实现必要的调整和出清。这导致周期性疲弱不断固化为结构性顽疾,最终催生出以上恶性循环。

为稳定公众预期,监管层往往强调以“动态和发展”的眼光看待中国经济、强调基本面的诸多有利因素,如高储蓄率、殷实的财政政策空间、高达3万亿美元的外储、中高速的经济增长、相对稳健的服务业等等。遗憾的是,恰恰是在“动态和发展”的视角下,这些因素彼此间并未形成正循环,从而导致其中的个体不断被消耗。这显然无法构成真正意义上的“护城河”。

令人担忧的是,市场、学界和决策圈对于如何破局仍莫衷一是。我们时常能听到对某单一政策选项的大力提倡,如松绑房地产、发展股权融资等等。但对于当前这一非稳态路径上的复杂系统而言,不仅“帕累托改进”式的政策选项不复存在,局部、序贯的最优解也未必能实现全局和动态最优。事实上,任何 “单兵突进”的政策措施都可能适得其反
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 11, 2016, 07:35:08 AM



财经  2016年04月10日
首付贷款激增 中国版次贷风险浮现

首付贷款激增 中国版次贷风险浮现

中国通过刺激房贷消化大量房屋库存的努力已经引发了一个更大的问题:高风险次级式房贷的规模激增,这已引发监管机构警惕。

中国的购房者一般会预付新房房款的1/3。但借款支付首付款的购房者迅速增多,这种情况与造成美国房市崩溃,並引发金融危机的信贷宽鬆状况类似,並已引发有关部门採取整顿措施。

根据总部位於上海的咨询公司盈灿(Yingcan)的统计,P2P平台今年1月发放了9.24亿人民幣(合1.43亿美元)的首付贷款,是去年7月的3倍多。

P2P平台从投资者手中筹集资金,然后以更高的利率放贷。

供职於中国4大国有银行之一的一位银行业高管表示,首付贷款直接推动了最近一些大城市房价的上涨。他表示,这种做法风险很高,应该遏制。

各级政府官员正在试图踩剎车。上个月,中国央行和住建部开始取缔向购房者打出「零首付」標语的房贷。

杨军(音)是一位31岁的办公室职员,打算在距离上海几小时车程的南京,购买一套总价150万人民幣的公寓,首付30%。向亲朋好友东拼西凑之后,首付仍缺10万人民幣(约合1.53万美元)。

对於不足的部份,房地產开发商向他提供了贷款。

杨军说这帮助他实现了中国梦,因为如果没有这种资金支持,许多像他一样的年轻人根本无法负担得起。

开发商垫支首付款

过去10年来城市人口增长及廉价信贷刺激了建房潮,留下大量空屋,为了促进城市房屋销售,政府2014年底开始实施信贷放鬆政策。

在沉重的债务负担让公司和地方政府陷入困境之际,政府看到家庭有能力承担更多贷款,於是试图扩大购房者的基数。

但儘管首付贷款发放增加,同时农民工等群体的房贷门槛降低,但在最需要释放购买力的地区,情况仍难有改善。

相反,宽鬆政策及刺激措施导致中国某些大型城市楼市火爆,因为在楼市愈发难以控制之际,购房者担心自己跟不上房价上涨的速度。

官方数据显示,去年以来深圳房价飆升57%。当地政府现已提高了首付要求。

上海情况类似,1月份房贷规模是上年同期的3倍多。

首付贷款属於新型融资业务,因此相关数据有限。

另外据房地產经纪人称,开发商有时会提供首付贷款,银行也会给房贷申请人提供装修、税务或旅行贷款,这些资金可用於支付首付。

房地產经纪人称,根据楼市的情况,这类贷款的年利率最高可达24%。

银行和房地產开发商表示,目前中国家庭槓桿水平仍远低於次贷危机前美国家庭的债务水平。

房贷违约率处於低位而且存好全部首付款的购房者人数,远超过没有准备好首付款的人数。

美国银行业此前纷纷向信用不佳或者没有抵押品的购房者推销贷款,而在中国,收入与房价出现了同步上升。

不过在中国经济增长放缓的情况下,標准普尔(Standard&Poor's)等机构的分析师已对与中国住宅市场相关的不良贷款风险持续上升发出警告。

中国房地產市场的健康状况对於全球经济而言至关重要。由中国房地產市场直接和间接带动的產值占中国国內生產总值(GDP)的近1/5。

刺激房贷降房地產库存手法危险

中国房地產市场近年的放缓导致全球钢材和铜的需求及价格大幅下降,对赞比亚和澳洲等大宗商品出口国家造成衝击。

一些中国的银行业人士和分析人士称,中国央行行长周小川在2月份的新闻发佈会上暗示,家庭债务有加槓桿的空间,这助长了中国的借贷热潮。

近几周,另外一些中国高层官员已承诺遏制首付贷。

中国社会科学院经济学家张明称,通过鼓励个人增加贷款的方式来降低房地產库存的做法很危险。他表示,一线城市房价暴涨背后潜伏著巨大的风险。

一些经济学家认为,中国政府对待房地產市场和股市的做法类似:政府对房地產市场释放的信號不一,去年对股市则是首先唱多,然后在市场走势逆转后又控制其影响。

为了支持整体经济,中国监管机构放鬆了个人投资者进行融资交易的限制,但之后又努力控制保证金融资。

总部位於新加坡的券商大华继显(UOBKayHianHoldingsLtd.)的中国经济学家朱超平表示,现在房地產市场又出现了似曾相识的感觉。

政府在鼓励借款以减少过剩住房后,现在又意识到风险並试图自我修正。

根据中国央行和咨询机构盈灿(Yingcan)的数据计算,P2P网络平台提供的首付贷占2015年新增住房抵押贷款的0.19%。但这並没有反映事情的全貌,因为银行还以其他名义提供此类贷款,开发商也发放贷款。

住宅抵押贷款发放规模最大的中资银行中国建设银行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Co,简称建设银行)称,该行2015年住宅抵押贷款不良贷款率为0.31%,高於2014年的0.21%。去年该行整体不良贷款率达到1.58%。

根据官方数据,全行业来看,2015年不良贷款占贷款总额的比率从2014年的1.25%上升至1.67%。但分析师估计,今年真实的不良贷款率可能高达8%,甚至更高。

无息首付贷款招买家

据芝加哥联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago),在美国2005年发放的次级贷款中有14.6%的贷款违约,该比率到2007年上升至21.9%。

中国大城市以外地区,房地產开发商为吸引买家推出了无息首付贷款。

一家总部位於四川的开发商称,去年该公司房屋销售回升,是由於买家首付负担下降,而这主要是由於开发商帮助买家垫支了首付款。

住建部部长陈政高3月中旬表示,在一些中小城市,农民工购房佔到了整个购房总量的1/3。

许多购房夫妻將双方父母的毕生积蓄拿来支付首付,如果房价未能上涨,这恐將造成普遍的经济创痛。

32岁的上海居民说姜艷(音)称首付政策愚弄了年轻人,她用「更傻」一个词来形容支付不合理房价的购房者,这些购房者坚信未来可以更疯狂的高价出售房產。

然而,政府並不愿批准一揽子购房紧缩政策。

上周,江苏省政府要求商业银行收紧房贷审批,表达了对购房者规避首付要求做法的担忧,这些做法中包括通过假离婚来享受对首次购房者较为宽鬆的政策。

但江苏省政府要求表明,政府希望留有迴旋余地,要求称如果二套房购买者已付清首套房的贷款,他们即可再次享受首套房待遇。

在某些城市里,购买第二套房甚至不需要满足这一要求。

中国第二大保险公司旗下的平安好房(Pinganfang.com)在该公司网站通过举例来推销其首付贷款服务,称该公司向一位26岁的深圳年轻人提供了购买一套价格500万人民幣公寓的首付贷款,还向一位不能及时卖掉老房子的32岁的上海年轻人提供了用於购买一处更大面积房產的首付贷款。

平安好房称,在3月早些时候监管机构发佈通知后,该公司已不再提供此类贷款。

在南京,一些房地產经纪公司依然向客户提供首付贷款。房產中介周京邹(音)说,他所在的公司不能將此类贷款广告放在门外展示,但当客户有此类需求时,公司仍会提供此类服务。

但他表示,客户必须以某种形式的资產作为抵押品,最好是无贷款的房子或者汽车。

其他中介公司已停止提供首付贷服务。房地產销售朱洋洋(音)说,现在只能告诉客户让他们向朋友和家人多借点钱了
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 14, 2016, 09:00:29 AM



2016年04月14日 06:12 AM
中国国企债券违约数量上升引发忧虑
英国《金融时报》 吴佳柏 上海报道
 

中国国有企业的债券违约数量正在上升,加剧了投资者的焦虑情绪,进而给希望发售债务的其他公司制造了困难。

自4月初以来,已有两家国企未能按期兑付债券,还有一家国企暂停其债券的交易,警告5月到期的一笔兑付将有困难。

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债券违约在中国在岸公司债券市场曾经在多年期间是闻所未闻的事情,政府总会在关键时刻介入,救助陷入困境的发行人。在岸公司债券的第一例违约发生在2014年3月,当时民营的超日太阳能(Chaori Solar)未能支付一笔利息。

第一例国企违约发生在去年4月,违约的发行人是电力设备制造商保定天威(Baoding Tianwei)。如今,随着中国制造业和建筑业放缓重创钢铁和煤炭等行业的现金流,违约正在加快发生。


这些违约还在给其他潜在借款人带来融资困难。根据《第一财经日报》(China Business News)对公开申报的统计,在4月的头12天,至少18笔债券发行被取消,总价值达到178亿元人民币(合28亿美元)。此前在3月份已有62笔债券发行被取消,总价值达到448亿元人民币。据海通证券(Haitong Securities)介绍,自2014年以来已有12只公开发行的债券发生违约。

“一级市场上周突然遭遇寒流,与近期信用风险事件频发有密切关联,”中诚信国际信用评级(CCXI)分析师连海峡(音)昨日写道。“信用风险持续发酵,已经引发了投资者的负面情绪。”

近期违约发生的速度出乎市场意料。地处中国东北锈带的辽宁省政府拥有的东北特钢集团(Dongbei Special Steel Group) 4月5日到期的10亿元人民币超短期融资券发生违约。

这些债券是在3个月前发售的。此前东北特钢在披露其董事长杨华被发现死于家中的几天后,未能兑付3月28日到期的债券本息8.52亿元人民币。该公司今年还将有另外20亿元人民币的债券到期。

国有的中国铁路物资(China Railway Materials)本周一表示,已申请暂停其债券的交易,警告其业务正在萎缩。该公司表示,正在努力制定一项计划,以确保偿还债务。今年1月26日刚发行六个月期债券的中国铁路物资,有10亿元人民币的债券将在5月17日到期。

央企中煤集团(China National Coal Group)旗下山西华昱能源(Shanxi Huayu Energy)一年前发售、4月6日到期的6.38亿元人民币债券本息发生违约。该公司今年还有15亿元人民币债券到期。

许多经济学家表示,国有企业发生违约对于中国债务市场的长远发展是健康的,因为它们有助于降低一个普遍假设所引发的道德风险,这个假设就是政府将为债券市场提供无止境的担保。

Ma Nan补充报道

译者/和风
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 14, 2016, 02:19:30 PM



南洋社论:热烈拥抱中国资金吧!
言论 南洋社论  2016-04-14 12:22

 
有句俗话“走得快好世界”,说的是行动快者得先机。
中国经济放缓,全球商品跌价,世界银行昨天宣布调低东亚今明年增长预测;印尼副总统尤索夫卡拉日前就宣布印尼下重药招商引资。这或许凑巧,但无不是抢先机者最佳写照。
缺钱最好的办法就是“抢钱”,当然不是拿枪,比如印尼的一套——招商引资。哪里钱多就往哪里去,比如中国,但还需胆量,不得前怕狼后怕虎。
3月,中国安邦集团竞购美国喜达屋酒店集团行动,一路报价到4月的逾200亿美元,最终还是失败了,个中原因除了价高者得之外 ,还掺杂了欧美的怕中(国)心态。
德国之声网站3月31日援引瑞士《新苏黎世报》一篇题为“低调的安邦想干什么?”的文章报道称,有关收购行动牵动了华尔街的神经,还有华盛顿权力中心的关注。
伴随中国国家主席习近平3年前倡议的一带一路,中国资金近年大举“走出去”自是顺理成章,怎奈国际更关注的是“中国想干什么?”。
周末,澳洲外国投资审查委员会(FIRB)宣布,澳洲在2014-15年度批准了240亿美元来自中国的房地产投资,比上年增加一倍;数字显示,获批投资于澳洲农业、金融和制造业的中资也有所增加。中国是澳洲最大的外国投资者,获批金额总计465亿澳元,几乎一倍于位列第二的美国(250亿澳元)。
中国对美欧澳的投资处于创纪录高位,突显北京在支持全球经济增长和作为外来投资来源方面的重要性与日俱增。就在中国经济降温,中资对海外的大量投资与庞大的收购行动当儿,却加深了这些国家的关注和忧虑。
有经济学家认为:“欧美和澳洲对于中国庞大投资浪潮的过度担忧,有些过头了。”
强势崛起的中国正值国内经济放缓,资金“走出去”是最好策略,加上政府大力推动一带一路,于是蔚然成风,包括收购德国以及欧洲企业、投资非洲的基础设施项目,以及在全球范围内大肆收购土地。
中国试图改变全球并购版图的努力,象征中国在全球商业界崛起,向世界展示其走出国门的抱负,摸索在国际舞台上参与竞争的必然之路,也是无可避免或阻挡的大势所趋。
中国企业和投资者融入全球经济秩序肯定是有益的,尤其目前西方日益升温的保护主义与大国主宰的游戏规则中,对其他小国来说是利大于弊。
中国对外投资快速增加可能带来很大的好处,却也存在风险。很多正在并购的企业在国内都背负着异常巨大的债务负担,这使人怀疑其境外收购的可持续性。不过,只要克服了这些障碍,拥抱中国资金相对来说,是值得去冒的一次风险之旅,尤其正处经济低迷的我国,务必抢尽先机。
根据《南洋商报》统计,2015年有将近400亿令吉中国资金“涌入”,涉及的投资、联营及并购的领域包括钢铁、发电、房地产、铁路及制造业等,几乎各大重要领域皆有,让人侧目的包括中国广核集团(CGN)向一个马来西亚发展有限公司(1MDB)收购Edra全球能源,总值23亿美元(约98亿6700万令吉)。
中国广核集团也承纳了Edra总值达74亿3000万令吉债务,并计划注资高达100亿令吉,拓展本地及海外业务。
州属合作方面,马六甲、彭亨、吉打及槟城去年皆有斩获,其中的吉打州政府就与青岛鲁海丰集团合作设立东南亚最大金枪鱼综合港口,总投资额达40亿令吉。
中国驻马来西亚大使黄惠康说,2014年中国企业在大马制造业直接投资总额达到13.6亿美元(约48亿令吉),比2013年增长了47.5%。中国已成为大马第三大外资来源国,可预见在未来数年内,中国很有可能成为大马的“最大”外资投资国。
如果中国资金引发国外压力、猜疑和冷遇,历史渊源久远的马中肯定会是一个契机;如果当年大马第一个与中国建交却获益不明显,这次我们必然获益良多,只要我们“走得快”,给予对方一个大力热烈的拥抱。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 14, 2016, 02:20:44 PM



焦点课题:西方媒体妖魔化中国的背后(上)‧叶斌
焦点课题 言论  2016-04-14 12:21

 
种种事实昭然若揭地表明,以美国为代表的西方国家的主流新闻媒体,对中国的确存在着根深蒂固的偏见和敌意。长期来,它们都处心积虑地在丑化、矮化及妖魔化中国。
它们为什么非如此下作地丑化、矮化、妖魔化中国不可?它们是怎样妖魔化中国的?缘于什么动机?代表了谁的利益?它们是基于什么样的文化心态?它们要描绘出一幅什么样的中国和中国人民的形象?
须跟随美国模式
美国舆论妖魔化中国的核心原因与美国大资产阶级的国家利益,不但有密切的关系,而且是完全一致的。美国大资产阶级的国家利益就是美国对外扩张的霸权主义、强权政治倾向及美国必须保持世界上唯一超级大国的地位。因此,美国媒体从国家利益出发,遂有系统、有组织、有计划地妖魔化中国,企图把中国描绘成一个独裁的“恶魔”,在国际上孤立中国、遏制中国。
美国历史学家威廉‧威廉姆斯在他的《美国外交政策的悲剧》一书中指出,许多美国人以为,“其他国家的人民除非走美国的路,否则就不能真正解决他们的问题,改善他们的生活”;他们“把创造出并欣赏一种不同(于美国)的生活方式的外国人视为低下、落后,应该按美国模式来教育和改造。”因此,按照美国学者哈罗德‧伊萨克为美国人对中国人的认识的划分,我们可以看到,从1848年以来,逾一个半世纪中的绝大部分时间,美国对中国都是轻蔑的、仇视的,即使是“仁恕”,也带有一种居高临下的性质。这一切都是从“美国中心主义”出发,对中国没有平等和尊重可言。
且看美国《时代》新闻周刊的创办人之一亨利‧鲁斯,他是坚决支持美国扩张主义政策,同时最先提出“20世纪是美国人世纪”的人物之一。早在1920年,22岁的鲁斯在耶鲁大学校刊上写的一篇文章中就激励他的同龄人“燃起民族自豪感,振奋民族精神”。
从这一思想立场出发,鲁斯和与他共同在1929年3月创办《时代》周刊的布里顿‧哈顿,在创刊号上就直言不讳地宣布:在公共问题和重大新闻上,不可能完全的中立,也不应当持完全中立的态度。因此,编辑不能没有某种偏见……出于这种“理想”和“偏见”,鲁斯等对凡是阻碍美国世界扩张的国家,当然抱着敌视的态度。其实,妖魔化的工作早在廿世纪30年代就开始了,只是当时首当其冲的对象是苏联、是斯大林等。
从针眼里看世界
如今,鲁斯早已作古,苏联也已经解体。但是,美国主流新闻媒体在冷战时期形成的思维定势却没有随着冷战的结束而改变。鲁斯的阴魂不散,他的手法仍被沿用。可悲的是,迄至于今,美国新闻界还是以遏制“共产主义”及“推进民主”为主题向全世界推销空泛的美国式“民主”,即使那种“民主”已在不少地方引起长期的动乱和不靖,然而,他们仍很难纠正他们“从针眼里”看世界,以至于在他们的信息报道中常常出现歪曲世界的狭隘。而他们之敌视中国,显然也是出于美国统治阶级的需要。
显然,以美国为代表的西方主流媒体的此种“舆论一律”的丑化、矮化、妖魔法中国,对中国只能说坏,不能说好;他们出于惯常的敌意,只报道中国负面的、消极的东西,使中国只能以可怜、可笑、愚味乃至可恶的形象,出现在西方公众面前。
叶斌
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 15, 2016, 08:46:06 AM



财经
企業債風險或拖累金融體系 IMF警告中國新興市場債務問題
 50点阅   2016年4月14日
IMF警告大企業債務問題將影響全球金融系統。
IMF警告大企業債務問題將影響全球金融系統。
 (紐約14日訊)國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告,中國及一些新興市場大企業的債務負擔問題或向外擴散,並對全球金融系統帶來壓力。

 其中高成長經濟體內的大企業債務膨脹讓人擔憂,這些大企業與銀行聯繫緊密,政府很可能不得不出手救助。



 同時,IMF在全球金融穩定報告中指出,中國企業現有債務總計1.3兆美元(約5兆令吉),有七分之一債務是由盈利不足支付利息企業拖欠,或導致銀行蒙受虧損。若這些問題沒有解決,將導致銀行蒙受重大損失,規模或相等于國內生產總值的7%。

全球風險7年高

IMF首席財務顧問維納爾斯(Jose Vinals)稱,雖然中國經濟在平衡方面取得進展,基于增長放緩、盈利能力下降,中國企業健康狀況正在惡化。同時,巴西和俄羅斯的大型企業受到原產品價格下跌和經濟萎縮衝擊。

 他指原產品價格大幅下跌加劇企業和主權脆弱性,提高經濟和金融風險。全球風險7年高

此外,發展中經濟體債務上升以及增長放緩情況,使IMF衡量新興市場風險指標上升,逼近2008至2009年金融危機時期的高峰值,而全球金融穩定性所面臨的總體風險估計將達7年來最高水平。

 維納爾斯指中國政府十分清楚這些債務問題,正採取措施應對負債過高公司的債務問題,但這些問題十分嚴重,需要政府採取具有雄心的政策議程
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ongchef on April 15, 2016, 08:56:32 AM
 :giggle: :giggle: :giggle:.................cehhhHHH!!!....lagi kana nosed,cilakoi,manyak manyak panlai printed monies is hasil not hutang :shake: :shake:.......another green grape of  buduh follower of choked sorrow!!!.....IdiotManagedFinance silalu smell good!!! :heart: :heart: :heart: 
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 15, 2016, 09:02:04 AM
:giggle: :giggle: :giggle:.................cehhhHHH!!!....lagi kana nosed,cilakoi,manyak manyak panlai printed monies is hasil not hutang :shake: :shake:.......another green grape of  buduh follower of choked sorrow!!!.....IdiotManagedFinance silalu smell good!!! :heart: :heart: :heart:




Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 15, 2016, 05:46:32 PM



Update
Chinese economy shows signs of debt-fueled recovery
By Reuters / Reuters   | April 15, 2016 : 4:30 PM MYT   
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BEIJING/SHANGHAI (April 15): China posted its slowest economic growth since 2009 but a surge of new debt appears to be fueling a recovery in factory activity, investment and household spending in the world's second largest economy.

That's good news in the near-term, economists say, but many worry it marks a return to the old playbook used during the financial crisis, when Beijing hand-cranked its economy out of a slowdown through massive stimulus, rather than structural reform.

Official data on Friday showed China's gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 6.7% in the first quarter of the year, easing slightly from 6.8% in the fourth quarter as expected. However, other indicators released showed new loans, retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment were all better than forecast.

While analysts say the data is evidence of a bottoming out in the economy's slowdown, some warn that the first quarter of 2015 got off to a similarly glowing start before a stock market crash later that year.

"What this shows is a stabilisation of the old economy," said Raymond Yeung of ANZ, pointing to recovery in industrial production and fixed asset investment.

"I would still be a bit cautious about headline growth... last year's 6.9 percent figure was underpinned by a massive contribution from financial services, and the strong loan and credit growth recently and the recent resumption of IPO activity suggests this could still be a big contribution."

The National Bureau of Statistics said in a press conference in Beijing on Friday that while main economic indicators showed positive changes, "downward pressure cannot be underestimated."

It did not distribute quarterly GDP figures as it has in the past, saying it needed more time to calculate the figure.

Global financial markets took the data in stride, but domestic stocks fell slightly, as analysts said the strong data implied the likelihood of a slower pace of monetary easing.

The CSI300 index of the largest listed firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen closed 0.1% lower.

Forex markets were largely flat with the offshore rate and the onshore rate trading around 6.5 per dollar.

Recovering demand

Beijing hopes a recovery — even a credit-fueled one — can be sustained to avoid the need for more aggressive stimulus that could reinflate asset bubbles and make it more difficult to retrain Chinese firms to move up the value chain.

Chinese banks extended 1.37 trillion yuan (US$211.23 billion) in net new yuan loans in March, nearly double the previous month's lending of 726.6 billion yuan, suggesting renewed appetite for investment among wary Chinese corporates.

China's retail sales growth quickened to 10.5% in March from 10.2%, slightly above forecasts, while fixed-asset investment growth rose to 10.7% year-on-year in the first quarter from 10.2%, beating market expectations of 10.3%.

Industrial output growth leapt up to 6.8%, from 5.4%, surprising analysts who expected a rise of 5.9% on an annual basis.

The NBS also noted that official unemployment remained low in March, around 5.2%, despite moves to cut capacity in bloated industries like coal and steel.

Critics, however, point out that many laid-off workers from old-economy sectors have been shifted into lower-paying government jobs, cleaning up offices — good for political stability but bad for wage growth and consumer spending.

At the same time official retail spending figures capture a lot of government purchases; elsewhere in the economy there are signs that ordinary consumption remains weak.

March export figures released earlier this week also staged an unexpected recovery, although some economists caution that seasonal effects from last year's late Lunar New Year holiday could be a factor.

"Today's released data ought not to distract from the fact that the structural issues facing China's economy remain unresolved," wrote Economist Intelligence Unit economist Tom Rafferty in a research note.

"It has taken considerable monetary and fiscal policy loosening to stabilise economic growth at this level and this effort has distracted from the reform agenda that is fundamental to long-term economic sustainability.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 18, 2016, 04:42:01 PM



The Economy: “China Says ‘No Dollars’ For New Yuan”
Wednesday, April 13, 2016 9:57
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(Before It's News)

B4INREMOTE-aHR0cHM6Ly8xLmJwLmJsb2dzcG90LmNvbS8tY200VF9wd3J4SDgvVnc1NHp0R0JvVkkvQUFBQUFBQUJrbE0veEtMMGhUQ0RmM0VHQlBiZmlrX3FldVI5WFJYX2ljVWhBQ0xjQi9zMzIwLzc4OGZmOTJlOWE1OWFlYjE0NmVkNjgxYjZjODMyMDI4X1hMLmpwZw==
“China Says ‘No Dollars’ For New Yuan”
by
“In a shocking move likely to crush the US economy overnight, China is refusing to make its new gold-backed Yuan, convertible from or to US Dollars. The new Yuan will be introduced next Tuesday, April 19.When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to add the Yuan to the basket of world currencies used for Global Reserves and International Trade, they wanted China to make the Yuan more reliable as a currency. Since then, China has almost un-pegged its Yuan from the Dollar, allowing its value to fluctuate on world markets. But for years, China has been amassing huge amounts of gold bullion; some have said their appetite for bullion has been “staggering.” And with a new gold-backed Yuan to be issued next Tuesday, the entire world will have a choice of a new currency to use for international trade: The old US Dollar which is backed by nothing, or the new Chinese Yuan, which is backed by gold. Which currency would YOU use?
When this new currency is issued, countries that have been forced to use US Dollars for decades, and have had to keep billions of dollars in their foreign currency reserves, will be free to dump those dollars. But they won’t be able to dump them to China for the new gold-backed, Yuan! China has reportedly decided “there can be no conversion of gold-backed Yuan to or from US dollars.” What China fears is that many countries around the world will want to trade their reserve US dollars  for the new Yuan, leaving China with mountains of worthless US dollars. China already has several trillion in US dollar reserves and does not want or need more.
If news of this decision by China is correct, then countries around the world may just have to decide whether or not they wish to continue trading with the USA at all? The upheaval this could cause as early as next week, would be staggering. This is a fast-developing story; check back.”
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 19, 2016, 10:40:40 AM



IT’S ALL SUDDENLY GOING WRONG IN CHINA’S $3 TRILLION BOND MARKET
Our Reporter | April 19, 2016
-1x-1
The unprecedented boom in China’s $3 trillion corporate bond market is starting to unravel.
Spooked by a fresh wave of defaults at state-owned enterprises, investors in China’s yuan-denominated company notes have driven up yields for nine of the past 10 days and triggered the biggest selloff in onshore junk debt since 2014. Local issuers have canceled 60.6 billion yuan ($9.4 billion) of bond sales in April alone, while Standard & Poor’s is cutting its assessment of Chinese firms at a pace unseen since 2003.

While bond yields in China are still well below historical averages, a sustained increase in borrowing costs could threaten an economy that’s more reliant on cheap credit than ever before. The numbers suggest more pain ahead: Listed firms’ ability to service their debt has dropped to the lowest since at least 1992, while analysts are cutting profit forecasts for Shanghai Composite Index companies by the most since the global financial crisis.
“The spreading of credit risks is only at its early stage in China,” said Qiu Xinhong, a Shenzhen-based money manager at First State Cinda Fund Management Co. “Many people have turned bearish.”
Debt Boom
China’s leaders face a difficult balancing act. On one hand, allowing troubled companies to default forces investors to pay more attention to credit risk and accelerates government efforts to curb overcapacity. The danger, though, is that investor panic leads to tighter credit conditions, dealing a blow to President Xi Jinping’s plan to keep the economy growing by at least 6.5 percent over the next five years.
Economic figures for March reveal a growing dependence on debt. China’s aggregate financing — a broad measure of credit that includes corporate bonds — almost doubled from a year earlier to 2.34 trillion yuan, exceeding all 24 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey as policy makers turned on the taps to support economic growth.
Yet even that wasn’t enough to save the seven Chinese companies that reneged on bond obligations this year. Three of those were part-owned by China’s government, seen not long ago as a provider of implicit guarantees for bondholders. Dongbei Special Steel Group Co. on April 13 missed a third payment since its chairman was found dead by hanging last month, while Chinacoal Group Shanxi Huayu Energy Co. failed to make a distribution on April 6.
Spreads Widen
Baoding Tianwei Group Co., a government-owned maker of electrical transformers that first defaulted a year ago, said on April 14 it may not be able to repay principal and interest on five-year bonds due this month. State-owned China Railway Materials Co. halted its bond trading on April 11, saying it’s studying debt “repayment issues.”
The reaction has been swift in China’s 18.8 trillion yuan corporate bond market (a figure that excludes certificates of deposit). The extra yield investors demand to hold seven-year onshore corporate bonds with top ratings over similar-maturity government notes has jumped by 28 basis points from an almost nine-year low in January, to 91 basis points as of Monday. At least 62 Chinese firms have postponed or scrapped planned note sales this month, six times more than the same period a year earlier.
“To Chinese investors at the moment, default risks are high almost everywhere,” said Shi Lei, the head of fixed-income research at Ping An Securities Co. The yield premium on corporate bonds will probably rise by 30 to 50 basis points over the next several months, Shi said.
Earnings Risk
There’s little sign that China Inc. is on the road to recovery. Non-financial companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen are generating just enough operating profit to cover the interest expenses on their debt twice, down from almost six times in 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Analysts, meanwhile, are getting more downbeat. Twelve-month earnings forecasts for Shanghai Composite companies have dropped by 7.8 percent this year, the most since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P has cut its credit ratings or reduced its outlook on 63 Chinese companies this year while upgrading just two, on course for the highest annual ratio of downgrades to upgrades in 13 years.
“As more and more issuers default, lenders and investors will reassess their portfolio and lending, and that will cause yields to rise,” said Christopher Lee, chief ratings officer for Greater China at Standard & Poor’s in Hong Kong. “If the onshore market has any dislocation, that will have a spillover effect in the offshore market.”
‘Swimming Naked’
The overseas bonds of Chinese issuers have so far proven resilient. The yield premium on corporate dollar notes has dropped 57 basis points from this year’s high in February to 250 basis points, near the lowest since 2007, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.
Rising defaults are actually healthy for China’s bond market, said Xia Le, the chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong.
“It shows the government is taking away the implicit guarantee,” Xia said. “Now risk awareness is rising, so we will see which issuers are swimming naked.”
People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan appears fully aware of the risks. He warned in a speech last month that corporate lending as a ratio of gross domestic product is too high, and said in a press briefing last week that China is implementing a debt-to-equity swap plan to cut corporate leverage.
The PBOC, which has cut official lending rates six times since November 2014, still has “ample monetary ammunition” to counter a deeper selloff in the bond market, said Tommy Xie, a Singapore-based economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.
Boom-Bust
Still, China’s recent history shows that a turn for the worse in markets can be hard to control once it starts. The nation’s equities lost more than $5 trillion of value last summer as authorities struggled to contain an unwinding of margin trades. Leverage is a big factor for corporate bond investors, too, with outstanding repurchase agreements in the interbank market reaching a record 9.7 trillion yuan in December, before slipping back to 8 trillion yuan in March.
A reversal in China’s bond markets would likely have a greater impact on the economy than the rout in stocks, given the country’s reliance on debt. Corporate obligations climbed to a record 165 percent of GDP at the end of last year, the latest figures from Bloomberg Intelligence show. In 2015, it took more than twice as much credit to generate every yuan of Chinese GDP than it did a decade ago, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
“The market is worried about the building up of debt,” said Iris Pang, senior economist for Greater China at Natixis SA in Hong Kong. “The cost has built up in the form of corporate credit risks and bank risks for the whole economy
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 19, 2016, 02:14:14 PM



CHINA HAD $903.1 BILLION OUTSTANDING NON-FINANCIAL CUMULATIVE ODI AT MARCH END: COMMERCE MINISTRY
Our Reporter | April 19, 2016
download
BEIJING (Reuters) – China had $903.1 billion outstanding non-financial cumulative outbound direct investment (ODI) as of end March, according to a document distributed by China’s Commerce Ministry at a press conference in Beijing on Tuesday.

China’s non-financial ODI jumped 55.4 percent in the first quarter of 2016 from a year earlier to $40.1 billion, the Commerce Ministry said on April 14.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 21, 2016, 10:42:47 AM



CHINA DEFAULT CHAIN REACTION LOOMS AMID 192 DAY CASH TURNAROUND
Our Reporter | April 21, 2016
images (6)
Chinese companies have never had to wait so long to get paid, as stockpiles build and customers delay sending funds.
Firms now take a record 192 days to collect payment for their goods or services from when they pay for the inputs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg on non-financial corporations traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The cash conversion ratio is up from 125 days five years ago. Liquidity is tightening in China after company profits declined for the first time in three years and as debtors face their hardest time ever paying interest.
China’s Pain Points
“The longer the cash conversion cycle, the higher the risk of corporates not having enough cash to repay their debts,” said Iris Pang, senior economist for greater China at Natixis SA in Hong Kong. “That creates a chain reaction.”
The weakest economy in a quarter century has prompted at least seven firms to miss local bond payments this year, already reaching the tally for the whole of last year. Among those to default was Baoding Tianwei Group Co., whose listed unit saw its cash conversion cycle spike to 321 days in 2015. Among companies facing the worst delays is Sichuan Renzhi Oilfield Technology Services Co. at 678 days, as the nation’s oil projects were disrupted by corruption probes and plunging crude prices.
“When the economy slows to a point, everyone drags their feet in repaying business partners,” said Xia Le, chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong. “We will see more defaults because longer time to collect cash means companies need more financing to keep their business going, which will increase their financing costs.”
Spooked by the debt failures, investors in yuan company notes have driven up yields for nine of the past 11 days and triggered the biggest selloff in onshore junk securities since 2014. Failures were concentrated in the energy and steel industries.
“We do not classify it as a big shakeout in the whole corporate bond market,” said Patrick Song, Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at CSOP Asset Management Ltd. “This actually signaled willingness by local governments to allow firms they control to face market pressure, instead of simply bailing them out.”
Ratios Worsen
China’s oil, gas and coal companies saw cash conversion days jump 68 percent to 196 days in 2015, Bloomberg data show. A call to Sichuan Renzhi Oilfield’s general line went unanswered.
Energy-sector firms have liquid assets such as cash and account receivables enough to cover 89 percent of their short-term liabilities, the worst ratio in four years, Bloomberg-compiled data show. The average for all non-financial firms traded onshore was 106 percent, also the worst in four years.
Fitch Ratings highlighted rising default risks among China’s coal companies in an April 12 report. Chinacoal Group Shanxi Huayu Energy Co. failed to make a local bond payment on April 6. Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., whose profit plunged 79 percent in 2015, plans to lay off 6,000 workers, Chairman Li Xiyong told reporters in March. China Shenhua Energy Co., the nation’s biggest coal producer, may continue to trim production, according to a March Bloomberg Intelligence report.
“The lower prices, reduced demand and industry over-capacity have significantly affected profitability and cash flow health of not only smaller-scale companies like Chinacoal Shanxi Huayu, but also major coal enterprises such as Yanzhou Coal and China Shenhua,” the Fitch report said. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Yanzhou Coal to B2 with a negative outlook from Ba3 on Tuesday — a two-step cut to a junk grade — as its liquidity position weakens
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 22, 2016, 08:34:44 AM



2016年04月22日 06:15 AM
中国应如何解决坏账问题?
花旗集团前高级副主席 比尔•罗兹 为英国《金融时报》撰稿
 

数十年来对金融危机的关注让我明白,政府作出艰难决定的时间越晚,力挽狂澜、遏制损失扩大的难度就越大。

随着国内金融领域的风险逐步上升,中国领导人需要认识到以上现实。迟迟不采取大胆行动将破坏国内外对他们的经济管理技巧的信心:短期而言这将促使资本外流增加,同时无疑会导致中期GDP增速下降。

保罗•沃尔克(Paul Volcker)在1979年执掌美联储(Fed)的时候面临严峻的经济危机。为遏制通胀飙升,他决定推出非常规货币政策来对付通胀这头恶龙。这样做造成的一个后果是衰退。但这场衰退历时很短,而通胀受到遏制,美国经济走上了持续快速增长的道路。

然而,现在北京谨慎情绪占据了上风。重要领导人最近发表了一系列的重大公共声明,以表明中国经济状况要比广泛报道的好。


与此同时,中国领导人可能希望,在有更明确迹象表明经济能够实现6.5%至7%的年度增长目标之前暂不推出任何新的严厉措施。中国总理李克强公开提出了6.5%至7%的增长目标,中国领导层希望这种增长将成为中国的新常态。

政府没有出台严厉举措,市场可能不会温和以对。省市级政府和国有企业的财务面临诸多问题。中国总债务(原文为“公共债务”publicly held debt——译者注)与GDP的比例据估计达到230%左右。

官方估计银行不良资产达到1.27万亿元人民币(合1960亿美元),这种估计可能有些保守。此外,中国负债累累的房地产行业和“影子”银行业已急剧膨胀。我认为,中国人民银行(PBOC)向体系持续注入资金以维持所有行业的做法是不可持续的。

现在有许多人呼吁通过债转股来大量削减不良资产。这种方法在上世纪80年代和90年初的拉美债务危机中很流行。它可能争取到一些时间,但并非解决之道。

广泛谈论的资产证券化项目也可能提供一些喘息时间,但中国政府需要认识到问题有多严重,直面这些问题。必须尽可能地勾销坏账。主要机构必须承担损失,同时还有必要关闭一些国企和“僵尸”企业。拖延越久,对经济的拖累就越大。

中国领导人可以学习最近的历史以及前总理朱镕基在上世纪90年代推行的卓有成效的改革。他不仅为中国加入世贸组织(WTO)铺平道路,而且还让银行增加了资本,勾销了坏账,具体做法是成立资产管理公司以收购部分银行坏账。

与此同时,他推行大规模改革以强化国企的资产负债表,同时还关闭了一批效率低下的国企。他的举措在确保经济年年高速增长方面起到了重要作用。

中国政府早就明白,有必要进行金融改革。例如,我与几位前领导人的交谈促使我于2005年在英国《金融时报》上发表了一篇专栏文章,内容包括建议提高国内债券和股票市场的广度和深度。中国需要采取重大举措——依赖政府注入资金来提振股市的做法是不可取的。

如今引起争论的不仅仅是金融体系的风险,实际上,有关实施全面经济改革的共识也日益受到质疑。在2013年,中共十八届三中全会就改革路线达成了共识,但如今只有部分得到实施。

中国放松对利率的管制,而让人民币纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)的特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子是朝着货币可自由兑换迈出的一步。但中国还需要采取更多举措,以实现金融市场的现代化和自由化、促进国内消费并降低经济对出口的依赖。

这些改革的进度将会因金融行业和主要国企(包括煤炭和钢铁行业中负债累累的企业,产能过剩和经济放缓加重了这些企业的问题)的债务核销以及资产负债表清理而放缓。

中国政府不应再犹豫不决,从而让国内外失去信心。采取果断举措至为关键。

本文作者曾经担任花旗集团(Citigroup)高级副主席

译者/邹策
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 22, 2016, 03:34:51 PM



Soros Warns China Credit Cycle Has Gone "Parabolic" Just To Keep Zombies Alive
Tyler Durden's pictureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2016 20:35 -0400

China Fitch George Soros ratings Sovereigns


 
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After warning last year of a "practically unavoidable" hard-landing to come in China, George Soros unleashed his central-planner-crushing self last night on the great red ponzi. As we noted last night, Soros warned the "parabolic" rise in credit  is very worrisome, and "eerily reminiscent of US in 2007-8," specifically adding that "most of the money that banks are supplying is needed to keep bad debts and loss-making enterprises alive." Soros' full discussion can be found below...

“Most of the damage occurred in later years," he said according to Bloomberg, referring to the spurt in US growth before the crash.

Simply put - as we highlighted with the shenanigans in the steel industry - China is attempting reflate its economy once again by reviving zombies who have now died twice. This can only end badly, and Soros was not alone in his opinions...

"Whether we call it stabilization or not, I am not sure,” Andrew Colquhoun, the head of Asia Pacific sovereigns at Fitch Ratings said in an interview in New York. “From a credit perspective, we’d be more comfortable with China slowing more than it is. We are getting less confident in the government’s commitment to structural reforms."
 
The stabilizing trend isn’t giving investors “enough confidence,” as China seems to have relied more on government investment in state-owned enterprises to boost the economy, said Gao Xiqing, former vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, in an interview in New York this week
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 23, 2016, 09:34:36 AM



财经
中國高額債務拼經濟 “次貸危機爆發前跡象”
 5076点阅   2016年4月22日
■索羅斯
■索羅斯

文:李原
(紐約22日訊)中國第一季經濟數據最近出爐后,“大鱷”索羅斯(George Soros)本月20日出席亞洲協會(Asia Society)時,又對中國的經濟開炮。



 這回他說中國靠高額債務推動經濟的情況,很像2008到2009年的次貸危機爆發前夕的美國。

“大鱷”也燒到手

 他說,中國3月的信貸數據,是一個很好的警示信號。該月新增社會融資規模達到2.34兆人民幣(約1.41兆令吉),遠超市場預期的1.4兆人民幣(約0.84兆令吉)。

 索羅斯堅持看空中國,儘管他今年一月在世界經濟論壇(WEF)上大唱中國經濟會難逃硬著陸,人民幣和亞洲貨幣會貶值,及做空標普500指數。最后,中國政府出手“打鱷”,中國股市和人民幣雙雙止跌回穩,做空人民幣的“大鱷”反而暗暗吃了虧。

 最讓索羅斯沒想到的是,國際金融決策和市場情況的驟變。這包括幾個主要央行為了穩定全球經濟而攜手合作、美元轉弱創下逾三年來首個最差單季表現、美聯儲態度大逆轉,以及美聯儲主席耶侖高調在市場高“鴿”──因全球經濟存在高風險,美聯儲必須“謹慎對待”加息,升息次數恐把也會由原來的4次減半到2次。

 外界對索羅斯大舉放空的索羅斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management)今年第一季度到底虧了多少,都深感好奇。

 消息人士還透露,索羅斯家族基金今年一季度損失約4至5%。市場形勢實在是變化莫測,大家也沒想到“大鱷”也有失手被燒的時候。

2得力助手
炒索羅斯魷魚

最近市場傳聞,索羅斯2名重量級的投資項目經理人大衛羅傑斯(David Rogers)和喬舒亞敦非(Joshua Donfeld)炒索羅斯魷魚,不幹了。

 消息人士透露,上述兩人不幹的原因,是和新上任的總投資長德雷博迪科(Ted Burdick)在全球市場走勢上產生分歧。

 大衛羅傑斯以操作大宗商品交易著名,在索羅斯家族基金公司管理約30億美元(約117億令吉)的資產,相等于索羅斯基金公司總資產規模的10%。喬舒亞敦非則關注股票投資
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 25, 2016, 10:25:57 AM



債多不愁?中國Q1負債比237%,創歷史新高
回應(0) 人氣(368) 收藏(0) 2016/04/25 07:35
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-04-25 07:35:16 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
隨著房地產暴漲,第一季中國負債對GDP占比也來到破紀錄的237%,遠高於其它新興市場國家水平(175%),如果這不是債彈,那什麼才是。

在人行不斷降息、降準刺激下,中國經濟近期在房地產的帶動下似有甦醒的跡象,但這也可能只是寬鬆貨幣政策創造的假象,如「金融巨鱷」索羅斯(George Soros)日前就曾警告,中國負債累累、像極2007-2008年美國次貸危機前的景況。

英國金融時報統計,截至三月底止,中國包含海內外負債總額達163兆人民幣,或相當於25兆美元。報導指出,中國雖然還只是新興市場國家,但這樣的負債水平已能與先進國家看齊,如美國為248%、歐元區為270%。

更令人擔心的是中國負債成長速度可能早已超英趕美,據報導,中國今年前三個月新增借款達6.2兆人民幣,高出去年同期五成,並同時改寫歷史新高。

所謂債多不愁,只要銀行持續放款,中國經濟短期內不至於出現危機,但問題是在這麼高的負債水平下,資本市場根本找不到那麼多可獲利的投資案,這意味的許多放款都將變成壞帳,最後並可能壓垮銀行業,屆時流動性緊縮,金融危機才會爆發開來。有人將之形容為中國的雷曼時刻,至於這個時刻何時到,經濟學家還在觀察


全文網址: http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=66e78ab0-097d-4046-a308-3d9e1fd49141&c=MB010000#ixzz46nfCOZ5c
MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 26, 2016, 08:56:28 AM



2016年04月26日 06:07 AM
Lex专栏:中国债务问题未必酿成灾难
英国《金融时报》 Lex专栏
 

控方的理由是:比你富有得多的乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)说,中国的债务诡异地让他联想起美国在2008年前的情形。辩方的理由是:人们经常这么说,而中国总能安然无恙。

没错,中国的借贷数据极为可怕。汇丰(HSBC)表示,若计入各类债务(家庭、地方和中央政府、企业),中国的债务与国内生产总值(GDP)之比达到249%。年度信贷增速达到15%,是名义GDP增速的两倍。为国有企业和地方政府提供担保的中央政府,隐晦地与很大一部分债务扯在一起。

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但辩方的理由也很有力。由于比危机前的美国穷得多,中国的增长潜力也要大得多。中国或多或少为本国的债务提供资金:家庭向银行放贷,银行向企业放贷——这与美国次贷危机的模式相反。

与美国形成反差的是,多年的贸易顺差让中国拥有充足的外汇储备。中国的资本市场并不平稳,但不像2008年前后美国失控的资产证券化那么疯狂。债务基本上仍在银行的资产负债表上。而那些银行看起来足够安全。中国工商银行(ICBC)的普通股一级资本充足率为12.9%,与摩根大通(JPMorgan)差不多。


辩方赢了。中国不是危机前的美国。那些对历史回声听力太好的人通常听得不够仔细。尽管一个国家的债务不可能无止境地以两倍于GDP增速的速度增长,但预测其终点的性质和时机是毫无把握的。

更值得担忧的是,中国的债务阀门让信贷流向徒劳无益的领域:效率低下的国有企业,艰难应对产能过剩的行业,以及房地产。这减缓了改革步伐,债务越多,就越难最终转向更自由的资本市场。

汇丰说,别担心。最近激增的信贷流入了基础设施,以及那些仍有住房需求的地区的房地产。自2014年以来,北京方面敦促地方政府将不透明的影子金融转化为更为透明的市政债券。一种异端思想是,中国的债务盛宴不一定以灾难告终。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/邹策
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 26, 2016, 08:58:13 AM



2016年04月26日 06:07 AM
中国债务问题如何收场?
英国《金融时报》 吴佳柏 上海, 唐•温兰 香港报道
 

经济学家警告称,中国债务总额与国内生产总值(GDP)的比例在今年一季度上升至创纪录的237%,远高于其他新兴市场国家,这造成金融危机爆发或者增长在更长时期内放缓的风险。

北京方面采取了大规模放贷的方法来提振经济增长,据英国《金融时报》估算,包括国内外借贷在内,中国3月底净债务总额达到163万亿元人民币(合25万亿美元)。

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这种债务与GDP比例的水平远高于其他发展中经济体——尽管与美国和欧元区相当。

尽管中国绝对债务规模令人担忧,但更令人担忧的是其债务累积的速度——中国债务与GDP的比例在2007年年底只有148%。


高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席投资策略师哈继铭今年在一篇报告中表示:“每个债务快速增长的大国要么经历了金融危机,要么经历了GDP增长在更长时期内放缓。”


国际货币基金组织(IMF)最近警告称,中国对发达经济体造成的风险越来越大。这一警告在一定程度上就是考虑到中国当前的债务水平以及其与全球金融市场日益紧密的联系。

经济学家们表示,鉴于有利可图的项目在任何特定时间都是数量有限的,任何经济体都很难在短期内有效配置这么多的资本。随着回报持续下降,更多贷款存在坏账风险。

国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)去年第三季度的数据显示,整个新兴市场债务与GDP的比例要低得多,只有175%。


国际清算银行采用与英国《金融时报》类似的方法,估算出中国债务与GDP的比例为249%,这与欧元区的270%和美国的248%大致相当。

中国政府正在尽力平衡支撑短期增长所需的支出和避免长期金融风险所需的去杠杆。然而,最近随着硬着陆的风险加大,中国已坚决将重心转向刺激政策。

据中国央行数据和英国《金融时报》估算,中国2016年一季度新增贷款6.2万亿元人民币,是有记录以来规模最大的季度增幅,同比增长逾50%。

经济学家普遍同意,中国经济的健康状况面临风险。存在分歧的是这种风险将如何收场。

最悲观的观点是,这种风险最终将以急剧爆发的金融危机收场——就像美国2008年的“雷曼(Lehman)时刻”那样(当时银行倒闭、信贷市场瘫痪)。其他经济学家则预计中国将会发生长期的、像日本那样的危机——增长持续几年乃至几十年放缓。


Emerging Advisors Group负责人乔纳森•安德森(Jonathan Anderson)持第一种观点。他警告称,自2008年以来推动信贷大幅扩张的银行,越来越依赖于销售高收益理财产品所获得的波动性很大的短期融资、而不是稳定的存款。正如雷曼和贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)在2008年证明的那样,当违约增加、市场情绪紧张起来的时候,这种融资可能很快消失。

安德森在上月写道:“按照当前的扩张速度,一些银行迟早会发现自己无法安全地为所有资产融资。到那个时候,就可能爆发一场金融危机。”

其他人则相信中国央行有能力持续避免危机。通过向银行体系大量注入资金,中国央行可以确保这些银行即便在不良贷款大幅上升的情况下,依然能保持流动性充足。他们辩称,过多债务更可能带来日本那样的情况:以增长放缓和通缩为特征的“失去的十年”
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 28, 2016, 03:53:55 PM



2016年04月28日 05:52 AM
中国债市最大的风险是什么?
FT中文网首席财经评论员 徐瑾 【作者微博】
 

债市近期成为市场焦点,甚至有全球债市到了最危险时刻的说法。对于中国而言,无疑应更关注中国市场的风险。

中国债市发生了什么?表面看起来,违约不过是零星浮现,但从趋势来看,这只是违约潮流的开始,风险正在从中小企业蔓延到国企央企。伴随着今年上海云峰债出现违约,中铁物质发布暂停债券交易,债市违约风险进一步暴露。根据中诚信国际统计,截止2016年4月中旬,发行人主体评级至少33次下调,几乎超过2015年下调次数两倍。与评级对应,违约数量也已经接近2015全年,同时债市发行推迟剧增。根据Wind统计,截止4月下旬,共有103家公司债券推迟或取消发行,共计1009.1亿元,金额大约是2015同期的3.4倍。这趋势其实从3月已经开始,根据彭博数据,3月就有62家企业取消448亿元的债券发行计划,约为2015同期的3倍。

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2016年的违约情况不容乐观,随后的二三季度将会更加难熬。债市违约为什么可怕?在一个正常市场,违约是市场的正常部分,但是在中国债券市场有所不同。简单而言,中国债券市场目前主要包含两种债券,一种是利率债,主要包括国债、地方政府债券、政策性金融债和央行票据等,没有信用风险或者说信用风险很低。另一个是信用债,主要是企业债、公司债等品种,城投债也可纳入信用债的范围。在目前形势下,两种债券中,信用债问题比利率债问题严重得多。按照信用债的定义,企业有违约风险,那么信用债利率需要为投资者提供足够的风险抵偿,但是由于大家都相信政府兜底会极大幅度地降低企业违约概率,其结果是信用债的利率并没有和利率债拉开太多,彼此之间没有体现出应该有的利差。

正如一句老话,没有破产的资本主义就像没有地狱的基督教一样,没有违约的债市同样不可理喻。中国债市存在三十年,打破刚性兑付的口号喊了很久,但直到2014年才出现公募债券首单违约,而2015年也刚刚出现首单国企违约。


在债券市场,利率和价格关系反比,信用债利率过低,对应着其债券价格过高。随着近日价格下滑,如果继续下跌,那么那些加杠杆买入的机构就可能面临大面积赎回。这种情况很可能会令人联想起2015的股灾。这里不得不追问一个问题,为什么大家过去都在买入价格不低的债券呢?一个关键因素是银行理财产品。目前,银行理财产品规模已经扩张到20多万亿人民币,很大比例以“委外”的方式来让基金等机构管理。对于这些基金而言,债券利率不够高,出于回报率考虑,为了获得更好回报率,只好考虑加杠杆买入——只有加杠杆,才能在利率水平不够高的情况下获得不错的回报。其实问题的本质在于,基金之类投资者行为偏好,其实反映了居民的投资偏好,在过去经济向好的年代,滋长了大家对于回报率的高期待,而刚性兑付的存在,又使得投资人同时不能接受亏本。

值得注意的是,如果违约是局部而零星的情况出现,这并非不可接受;而当违约变成恐慌情绪蔓延市场时刻,那么局部违约很可能导致更大的担忧,去杠杆去泡沫一旦不当,很可能就变成火烧连营,就像2015年A股股灾发作于查配资开始一样。

换言之,在一个习惯不违约的市场,一旦违约骤然增加,那么对于市场趋势的逆转将会非常致命,如果这个市场同时又存在杠杆的话,那么价格的变化,很可能类似不断吹大的泡沫最终破灭。类似的案例在金融危机期间也曾出现,大家往往觉得波动率低的市场风险小,可以通过杠杆来获得稳定收益,事实上一旦出现结构性变化,机构投资人甚至会因此破产。

债市有多重要?从规模来看,截至2016年3月底,中国债券存量总额为53.8万亿元,而A股总市值约为45.4万亿,流通市值36万亿。对比之下,债市规模已经超过A股,更重要的是,对比股市,债券在企业融资中作用更为重大。根据央行发布的一季度金融数据显示,2016年一季度社会融资规模增量为6.59万亿元,其中企业债券净融资1.24万亿元,非金融企业境内股票融资则为2840亿元。如果债市利率以及资金出现波动,对于企业影响更为直接。

也正因此,债市表面看起来很安全,却充满了暗礁与风暴,也反映了当前投资的悖论。最核心的一点,一方面实体经济回报率降低,另一方面储户要求的回报率没有降低,这导致资本成本和收益率成本之间倒挂,迫使投资机构加杠杆,而这使得政府不能随便让企业倒闭。反过来说,居民回报率预期之所以那么高,也在于政府信用兜底,大家都相信投资的项目不会有违约风险。随着资产荒的情况恶化,这一矛盾将会激化,也会遭遇现实的挫折。

也正因此,比起股市的涨跌生猛,楼市的举城关注,债市几乎算得上波澜不惊,但是债市的背后机构力量以及资金实力,其实注定了债市一旦出现问题,那么注定将是金融震荡的开始。

因此,习惯刚性兑付的债市加上各类杠杆,使得债市风波值得小心对待,央行防守金融风险的难度加大。债市何去何从,核心问题就是看央行怎么做,印钞者面对金融市场震荡,如何出手?未来一段时间,中国国债利率水平可能有上行压力,市场机构此前曾经设想央行会向欧美的零利率靠拢,但是事实上这并不容易。首先,利率很大程度与通货膨胀有关,而目前消费物价指数(CPI)正处于近两年的高点,未来也难以显著走低;其次,中国当前面临的汇率和资本流出压力,也约束了利率不可能太低。

问题在于,利率上行,债券市场出现恐慌,作为印钞者,央行是否会大手笔入市干预?这将是一个关键问题,因为央行也面临其两难选择,央行防守金融风险,需要两线作战,既要守卫汇率,利率不能太低,又要捍卫债市,那么利率不能太高,二者之间存在矛盾。好走的路,我们走得已经太多了,剩下的路,往往就是这样有舍有得的两难选择。注:本文仅代表作者看法
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 07, 2016, 11:51:42 AM



财经
3.7兆元債券年底到期 中國企業恐掀違約潮!
 229点阅   2016年5月05日 大中華圈
(上海5日訊)中國企業債券今年恐掀違約潮!

據“彭博社”報導,中國企業今年底有超過人民幣3.7兆元(約2.3兆令吉)在岸債券到期。



報導指出,今年中國到期的債務集中在金屬和礦產等最缺資金的行業,因此中國需要更活躍的債券市場來協助企業進行再融資,但4月債券殖利率創下逾1年來最快漲速,債券發行量銳減43%,取消的債券發行規模達1430億元(約881億令吉),債券市場投資氣氛明顯惡化。

“自由時報”報導,今年以來,已經有至少7家公司違約,與去年全年的違約家數相當。過去3個月有3家國有企業違約,顯示中國決策者更能容忍企業違約。

信達澳銀基金管理公司駐深圳的貨幣經理人邱新紅說,中國債券市場的最大風險就是再融資風險。由于有大規模的債券即將到期,若發行企業不能透過發新債來還舊債,就會有更多企業違約
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 07, 2016, 12:26:32 PM



2016年05月06日 06:22 AM
中国经济改革正步入险境?
独立经济学家 尤述 为FT中文网撰稿
 

请允许我直言。我希望中国的经济改革取得成功。我希望改革,是因为我希望北京方面能够成功打造强大、可持续的经济。一个停滞的中国对每个人来说都是坏事——对中国、对整个地区、对世界都是如此。

但我很担心。

我不是一个“看空中国者”。作为一个经常在中国各地旅行的人,我在过去二十年里见到了很多变化。在这段时期的大部分时间里,事情的进展的确相当顺利——无疑比大多数其他新兴经济体要好。人们依然对未来、对他们的孩子的未来感到乐观。北京方面的政策制定者们不是神,但他们也不是笨蛋——随着时间的推移,事实证明他们相当善于制定能够成功地提高民众生活水平的政策。

但我想要问一个诚实的、发自内心的问题:十八届三中全会的改革进行得怎么样?全会提出的改革议程是雄心勃勃而全面的。这是一份长达10年的计划。没有人假装这将是一件容易的事情。全会指出的很多问题都非常复杂。问题相互交织,这意味着政策制定者必须很好地相互协调,而传统上他们在这方面并不擅长。每个人都知道会有阻力。有大量既得利益“奶酪”要扳动。


那么经济改革进展如何?我认为这个问题有三种可能的回答。

第一种回答是改革进展顺利。这是官方的说法,但我认识的人中很少会有人在私下谈话中这么说。人们指向金融业,说这个行业发生了很多变化。利率基本实现自由化,变得更高,汇率接近或者高于均衡值。这两者都是2000年代以来发生的重大变化,那时利率要低得多(引起大规模的过度投资),汇率也十分疲软(导致对可贸易产品投资过多)。在财政政策上,中央政府接手了大量地方政府债务,这也是很好的一步。

其他人则强调“供给侧”改革——在中国这意味着关停过剩产能,而在市场经济的商业周期中发生这类事情很正常。称这为“改革”似乎有点奇怪,因为这并没有改变做事方式,但的确有必要关停过剩产能。

还有人指出,反腐也是一项十分积极的改革。反腐阻止了官僚机构和国有企业的腐败,应该会改善国有企业的投资和官僚机构的服务质量。

这些改革的确很重要。在某种程度上,这些改革意味着经济放缓了。但这没关系。

第二,许多人表示改革正在推进,但过程缓慢而艰难。北京方面需要谨慎行动,而且需要对多项改革合理排序。对于心怀希望的人,这是他们在“改革进行得怎么样?”这个问题上比较愿意听到的答案。就以国企改革为例,这方面有一些零碎的进步,比如将国企分类划入竞争性和战略性领域的意见。还有为建立淡马锡(Temasek)式的管理公司做的准备。反腐让扳动既得利益变得容易得多。但这一切都花了很多时间。这些人说,在接下来几年,会有更多进步。“我们需要为改革争取时间,”他们说。

第三种回答是你不会经常听到的。我们都想保持希望和爱国。我们不想放弃。但第三种回答是经济改革议程正在走向末路。我认为有一些迹象能够体现这一点。让我在这里展开论述。

比如,以政府债务为例。财政部已经放弃了“43号文”,即2014年底出台的试图阻止地方政府融资平台从银行获取新贷款的政策。在2014年第四季度和2015年第一季度,基础设施支出随之急剧下滑。考虑到2014年基础设施支出占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重约为8%-10%,这对经济造成重大打击。2015年,各省级政府官员前往北京参加全国人大会议时抱怨了该问题。经济数据恶化。之后国务院在2015年剩余时间内逐渐淡化43号文相关政策。债券市场再次向平台公司开放债券发行,而国家开发银行(CDB)直接从中国人民银行(PBoC)的资产负债表上得到了逾2万亿元人民币的融资额度。去年第三季度,中国银监会(CBRC)指示银行向平台公司建设的“重点项目”提供贷款。

今年第一季度,我们看到了所有这些工作的结果——信贷规模大幅增长,绝大多数新增信贷进入基础设施项目。财政部声称其“政府和社会资本合作”(PPP)项目正在取得效果,但是熟悉相关合同的人都知道,中间的P代表的是国有企业,而非私营部门。这不是小问题,而是根本性问题。吸引适当的“私”(私营企业)参与项目的魔力在于,它们的利益是让项目具有商业可行性。如果没有私营企业,无法盈利的坏项目极容易被放行,收益依赖于地方政府拨款。中国迄今有人为城市地铁想出可行的商业定价和运营模式吗?没有,饮用水方面也一样。还有电力、机场和公路也是如此。在还没有出现这样的模式的情况下,私营企业确实希望参与其中。

因此,PPP项目基本上只是重新启动的老平台模式而已。如果你认为它们在本质上是不同的,你必须证明国企的任何负债未来都不会进入政府的资产负债表。我不认为这是可信的承诺。

我还记得2010-2011年间我与中国各地的地方政府官员见面并询问他们有关地方债务的问题。他们大多只是说债务水平还好——地方政府有足够的土地支撑债务。他们说:“别担心,政府永远不会违约。”要让政府违约不容易,但是问题的严重程度显然远远超过他们的表述。

无论官方赤字数字最终几何,今年实际的政府债务与GDP之比仍将上升10个百分点左右。这意味着政府债务(已经达到GDP的50%-70%)仍将继续上升。

这是我们需要的那种改革吗?不是。换句话说,唯一真正发生的改变是,问题变得更严重了。

这很重要。这不是争取时间——这是让问题恶化。众所周知,债务水平上升会使金融危机发生的可能性增加。

因此,我们还需要观察银行业动态。近来,人们不常讨论“影子银行”——但是,尽管滥用影子金融最严重的时期已经过去,“影子”仍在不断扩大。银行理财产品的资产管理规模持续快速增长,特别是股份制银行和城市商业银行。去年,理财产品的资产管理规模达到23万亿元人民币,远高于前一年的15万亿元人民币。

理财产品的资金仍然不断流入“非标信贷资产”——即有实无名的贷款,同时银行继续不针对这类贷款持有资本,也不告诉我们这些贷款的质量。很多理财产品资金都进入了企业债券市场,我们如今即将见证该市场推后已久的违约潮。去年,如果你买了理财产品,你得到的平均收益率是4.7%,而无风险存款利率为1.7%。二者差距扩大了,表明风险上升。不过,目前所有人都仍然表现得像毫无风险一样。

银行还在用普通储户的资金发放“影子”贷款。这些资金由激进的股份制银行管理,后者的资产负债表日益令人不安。一些银行的“影子”贷款规模现在和它们的正式贷款不相上下。它们没有资本支持这些贷款。

或者看看银行的“债转股”决定吧。在去年的某个时候,北京有人眨了眨眼,就签署了债转股协议。民生银行(Minsheng Bank)年报显示,与其他银行一样,该行已成为多家经营不善公司的股东,包括中国二重(China Erzhong)。江苏大型民营造船公司熔盛重工(Rongsheng,现更名为华荣能源)也获得了类似的待遇——中国银行(BOC)现在是该公司的最大股东。我们被告知,还有2万亿元人民币的债转股配额。

分析师忙着“百度”15年前中国的银行业改革情况。那时显然也有债转股,那么现在也没问题!他们没有意识到(或者有意不去强调)的是,现在的情况截然不同。在本世纪初,不良贷款首先被剥离银行账簿,放入“资产管理公司”。资产管理公司随后可以决定如何处置这些资产:出售它们、申请相关企业破产或者谈判转股事宜。

这一决定面临大量问题——资产管理公司无法按照纯粹的商业方式处置这些债务,而且资产管理公司的融资也不透明。但至少银行摆脱了不良贷款和僵尸企业——这是任何银行重组的关键。让我再重复一遍:任何银行债务重组成功的关键是:将僵尸企业剥离出银行资产负债表之外。相反,按照现在的债转股政策,银行和僵尸企业被绑在同一条船上,不得不一直向它们发放新贷款。一些人建议将股权登记在特殊目的公司(SPV)。我只想说,2008年金融危机让我们明白,SPV是很危险的东西,因为银行依然对它们负有责任。

我们需要这种改革吗?不需要。

那么结论是什么?管理一项改革计划极为困难。只要想一想必须进行多少研究、协调、政策决策、实施和跟进工作就会明白。在每一个阶段都有阻力。我能够理解。这几乎是一个不可能完成的任务。我知道,在这个过程中将出现艰难的选择,有时进几步,有时退几步。

尽管如此,我仍认为当前改革处于危险境地,风险在于,在我们说我们正在改革的时候,问题实际上在恶化。争取时间可以,但让问题恶化不是争取时间,而是交出时间。

中纪委监察部网站最近刊登了一篇评论文章,谈论当今社会真正的忠诚是什么。忠诚并不是表态说一切都好,所有政策都是好政策。当忠诚被错误定义为全无异议的赞美,我们的领导人就会迷失,就会更容易犯错。

知晓中国运作方式的人是那些有条件从事深度研究和说真话的人。但如果这些人担心他们的职业生涯被破坏,他们就不会说真话,也没有动力从事深度的系统性研究。结果是,中国的经济研究将会是肤浅的,而且对决策无用。从事研究的将只剩下那些不理解中国运作方式、只想赚钱的真正的“中国空头”。

现在中国的经济改革处于极大的危险之中吗?是的。我们需要考虑如何让债务不再越积越多,我们需要制定让私营部门参与基础设施建设的清晰框架,我们需要拿出正确清理银行资产负债表的计划,以及终结银行体系中一切监管套利的计划。

(本文仅代表作者本人观点)

译者/何黎
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 13, 2016, 04:27:29 PM



Here’s why Bank of America thinks George Soros is wrong on China

By Sue Chang
Published: May 11, 2016 2:44 p.m. ET

     12 
Deutsche Bank sees 1-in-4 chance of China’s growth falling below 6%
Shutterstock
George Soros believes China is starting to look a lot like the U.S. did before the financial crisis unfolded but Bank of America Merrill Lynch thinks he’s “overwrought”
Hedge fund manager George Soros has made a few shrewd bets over the years that made him a fortune and catapulted him to fame. So when he recently predicted that China is hurtling toward a financial meltdown similar to the one the U.S. experienced in 2008, it predictably sent ripples through the global financial markets.

Yet, there is at least one analyst who believes Soros is exaggerating the risks.

Michael Hanson is an economist who covers the global and U.S. economies for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and he thinks comparing the U.S. to China in this context is misleading. In fact, he believes there are more differences than similarities between the two.


“That analogy is overwrought,” Hanson said in a recent report. “While there may be some parallels between the pre-crisis situation in the U.S. and China today, there arguably are even more important differences, including the nature of the increase in credit, extent of contagion risks to the broader economy, and scope for government policy to preclude or offset [a crisis].”

Soros last month said there is an “eerie resemblance” between the financial upheaval in China and the events leading up to the U.S. financial crisis of 2007-2008.

Bloomberg
Few names in the global investment community command as much respect, and at the same time strike as much fear, as George Soros.
The octogenarian investor is famously known as the “man who broke the Bank of England” for his timely shorting of the British pound in 1992. He is also known to have made a similarly prescient bet against the Thailand baht, prompting some to accuse him of orchestrating the Asian financial crisis that began in 1997.

But Hanson’s argument centers on his belief that the Chinese housing bubble is a different animal than the one that overwhelmed the U.S. For one, mortgages are a small portion of total borrowing in China and households are not over-burdened with debt the way American families are. Furthermore, China is not relaxing lending standards as the U.S. had, which was the main trigger for the housing crisis, according to the analyst.

By his reckoning, Chinese household debt is 39% of GDP, versus 98% in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2008.

“Hence, we are unlikely to see the same sort of shock to consumer balance sheets and spending as was the case in the U.S. In addition, a correction in the Chinese real estate market is already underway,” said Hanson. “Widespread concerns of overbuilding notwithstanding, China does not appear to be subject to the same contagion channels as the housing crisis in the U.S.”

China also has another advantage that the U.S. did not—hindsight. Having seen how the U.S. crisis played out and the U.S. government’s response, Chinese officials are expected to intervene much earlier and much more decisively, he said.

If anything, Hanson thinks China is starting to resemble another economic powerhouse that has since lost its mojo — Japan.

“If we had to identify a historical antecedent for the current situation in China, a more applicable choice might be Japan during the 1990s,” he said.

Hanson argues that if non-performing loans are allowed to remain on banks’ balance sheets, it could lead to “sapping growth” rather than the type of financial crisis that the U.S. had witnessed nearly a decade ago.

Japan, whose economy was a role model for developing economies in the years following its post-WW II reconstruction, stumbled badly when its asset bubble burst in the late 1980s and it entered a so-called Lost Decade of stagnant growth.

Still, even as the economist dismissed Soros’ gloomy prediction, he believes China’s corporate sector bears watching with nonfinancial corporate debt at 166% of GDP in the third quarter. That compares with an average of 100% for emerging markets and 75% for developed countries.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank last week warned that a disturbing trend that was apparent in Thailand and Korea ahead of the Asian crisis is also emerging in China: the gap between the growth in M2— a broad measure of money supply—and expansion in credit.


What this suggests is that all the funds unleashed by the Chinese government are mostly staying in the financial sector rather than trickling down into the economy as intended.

From the report:

Deutsche Bank
Bank lending to non-bank financial institutions rose 68.3% year on year in the first quarter, while bank lending to government, corporate, and households grew 19.5%.

The low market rates on the back of loose monetary policy are prompting Chinese financial firms to use excess liquidity for investments to chase returns rather than lending. This in turn is leading to an asset bubble and a more fragile financial sector, warned Zhiwei Zhang, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist.

In response, the economist raised the probability of China’s growth falling below 6% for four consecutive quarters between 2017 to 2019 to 25% from 20%.

Beijing earlier this week said the country’s exports fell 1.8% year over year in April, significantly weaker than the double-digit growth forecast by economists. Imports also dropped by a bigger-than-expected 10.9% from a year earlier.

“Slower Chinese exports going forward mean that a source of demand will remain sluggish, which will create headwinds for China’s overall growth,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics.

Weak imports will also mean subdued demand for foreign goods, weighing on growth in other countries, he said.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: eye-hub on May 13, 2016, 06:52:10 PM

華碩、華為竄出頭,蘋果 iPhone 日本市佔率跌破 50%


[img width=600 #~/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/15415264281_f99cd63d21_z-624x416.jpg[/img]


日本媒體 NHK 7 日報導,根據日本 IT 相關調查公司 BCN 公布的統計資料顯示(彙整日本家電量販店等 2,600 家以上實體通路的銷售量數據),因受惠 4 吋新機「iPhone SE」於 3 月底開賣,帶動 2016 年 4 月份蘋果(Apple)iPhone 於日本市場的銷售量較 2015 年同月成長 13.3%;不過因台灣華碩、中國華為等主攻 SIM-Free 智慧手機的廠商竄出頭,拖累 4 月份蘋果 iPhone 於日本市場的銷售量市佔率萎縮至 49.9%,為 3 個月來第二度跌破 5 成大關。

據報導,4 月份華碩、華為以及日系廠商積極搶攻的 SIM-Free 智慧手機銷售量較 2015 年同月飆增 28.3%,銷售市佔率也揚升至 17.2%。BCN 指出,「今後 SIM-Free 智慧手機銷售增加的傾向料將持續」。

除華碩之外,宏達電(HTC)、宏碁也已搶進日本 SIM-Free 市場。

根據 BCN 3 日公布的資料顯示,2016 年 4 月份華碩 16GB Zenfone Go 於日本整體手機市場(包含 SIM-Free 及非 SIM-Free 機種)的銷售市佔率位居第 10 位(3 月份為第 93 位)、16GB Zenfone 2 Laser 位居第 11 位(3 月份為第 13 位)。

4 月份日本整體手機市場銷售 TOP 10 中,蘋果 iPhone 6s 包辦了前 4 位,而由 KDDI 販售的 16GB iPhone SE 位居第 16 位,是所有 iPhone SE 機種中表現最好的。

BCN 的資料顯示,2015 年華碩於日本 SIM-Free 智慧手機市場的市佔率達 28.6%,擊敗中國廠華為(市佔率為 23.8%)位居首位;LG 以 15.9% 的市佔率位居第 3 位。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: eye-hub on May 13, 2016, 06:52:42 PM
蘋果為何要向華為繳數億美元專利費?

大陸手機專利戰開打,中國國家知識產權局表示,去年華為向蘋果許可專利769件,而蘋果向華為許可專利98件,這意味著華為已經開始向蘋果收取專利費。業內估計至少數億美元。

環球網報導,據悉,去年華為與蘋果公司達成一系列專利許可協議,覆蓋GSM、UMTS、LTE等無線通信技術。在通信業,兩個公司簽訂專利許可時,專利許可數量多的一方要向數量少的一方收取專利費。

去年年底,愛立信與蘋果簽署專利授權協議,根據雙方協議,未來七年蘋果將向愛立信支付專利費。

在通信專利這塊,高通和愛立信擁有著巨大的能量,而兩者也靠專利授權獲得相當多的收益。除了蘋果,華為去年也與愛立信許可對方在全球範圍內使用自身持有的標準專利技術,據說華為未來五年華為將向愛立信支付接近30億美元的專利費。

至於蘋果向華為支付的專利費到底是多少,後者並沒有透露,但業內估計至少是數億美元。

從之前公布的情況看,華為2015年研發投入92億美元進行新技術和新產品的研發,占銷售額的15%,已經超過蘋果的85億研發投入,占銷售額3.5%。 目前,華為累計中國申請專利52,550件,而去年華為消費者BG共申請專利9,000件,其中,大陸申請6,200件,境外申請2,800件。

專利對於大陸手機廠商的重要性已經不言而喻,沒有足夠多、足夠廣的專利支持,海外市場擴展將會困難重重,現在許多企業已經在加強這塊領域。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 04, 2016, 05:16:00 AM



美系外資:對人幣"徹底悲觀"、恐再釀全球股災
回應(0) 人氣(3113) 收藏(0) 2016/06/03 12:03
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-06-03 12:03:10 記者 陳苓 報導
中國將再次引爆全球股災?高盛警告,美國升息機率提高,中國資本外逃風險加劇,人民幣可能會加速貶值,市場大地震或許會重演。
ejinsight、路透社報導,高盛2日報告指出,他們對於人民幣的看法轉為「徹底悲觀」(outright negative),人幣兌美元的中間價不斷下調,恐會點燃資本外逃風險,情況一如去年8月和今年年初。如今人幣中間價已來到5年低點。
1月人幣重貶,造成全球市場賣壓,此後當局改變匯率管制作法,轉為盯住一籃子貨幣,不再只看美元。此一策略可能無法阻止資本出逃,因為中國家庭和企業最看重的,還是人幣兌美元走勢。高盛表示,儘管當局不斷強調一次性重貶不是政策選項,市場仍會如此揣測。不僅如此,人幣貶值也可能會衝擊美國聯準會(FED)的升息腳步。

中國外匯中心網站公佈,3日人民幣中間價為人民幣6.5793兌1美元,較前一交易日貶值0.16%。
嘉實XQ全球贏家系統報價顯示,台北時間3日中午11點55分,在岸人幣升值0.05%,報6.5784兌1美元。週線跌幅達0.36%、並為連續第五週走貶。
人幣貶值風再起,境內資本悄悄出逃,從比特幣爆紅可以窺見。Investing.com、路透社、英國金融時報先前報導,5月27日比特幣漲至530美元,為2014年8月以來新高;其中人民幣兌比特幣的交易最為熱絡,約佔交易量的95%。中國人行一再調降人民幣匯率中間價,投資人尋求替代資產,使得比特幣買氣暴增。
Zerohedge、南華早報5月底報導,5月25日人民幣匯率中間價貶值0.3%、至6.5693兌1美元,為2011年3月以來新低。激戰不休的貨幣戰曾短暫休兵,如今人幣重貶,等於中國又對FED開炮宣戰。
FED升息可能導致人幣貶值、中國資本外逃加劇,恐造成資產市場震盪。在岸和離岸人幣的匯差已逐漸擴大,從4月底的100 pips,5月中升至400 pips,代表人幣在海外市場的貶值壓力增加。麥格理分析師稱,要是美元指數重回100,人幣兌美元可能會貶至6.8兌1美元。渤海證券分析師Song Yiwei表示,5月份人幣持續貶值,人們大有理由相信中國面臨更大的資本外逃壓力


全文網址: http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=b4c3272b-c79b-43b0-8fdf-b2b3df0b9b8e&c=MB010000#ixzz4AYHr0uHV
MoneyDJ 財經知識庫
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 06, 2016, 05:58:45 PM



下则新闻
就业报告惨淡 美升息前景变暗
财经  2016年06月06日
中国股市一年跌四成 处泡沫「本梦比」

AddThis Sharing Buttons
(上海6日讯)上证综合指数过去12个月重挫40%,但中国A股价位仍是全球其他主要市场的3倍。

《彭博》报导,沪深股市本益比中值为59倍,比2000年美国互联网泡沫高峰时期科技股的价位还要高。

中国股市泡沫触顶已有一年,却因政府在企业利润萎缩之际,出手抬升股价,价位並未回到该有的正常水平。

美国银冠(Silvercrest)资產管理公司和Blackfriars资產管理公司的基金经理人去年料中国股大跌,如今认为中国经济成长疲弱,加上投资者信心脆弱,要谈重返中国股市还为时过早。


《彭博》引述Blackfriars驻伦敦股票主管韩恩(Tony Hann)说,「我们不持有任何A股。看涨的理由似乎是,我可按照当前的本益比买入,因为会有其他人,以更高的本益比从我手中买走。最大的风险在於中国市场投资者心態的变化。」

Blackfriars管理著大约2.70亿美元资產,旗下Oriental Focus Fund今年的表现优於同业的83%。

投资者担心的理由有很多。中国经济增速去年降至1990年以来最低,迄今仍无復甦跡象。上证综指成份股的利润自去年6月以来,下降13%,企业违约不断增多,人民幣匯率接近5年低点。

从同时在香港掛牌的股票来看,即可看出中国股市和国际市场明显脱鉤,中国股价位平均比同时在香港交易股票溢价93%
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 09, 2016, 08:06:15 PM



Mervyn King's Alarmist Warning: "All China's Assets In The US Might Be Annulled"

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden - Jun 9, 2016 5:05 AM
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What is it about former central bankers who first destroy the fiat system with their monetarist policies, only to go into retirement, and preach the virtues of the one compound they spend their entire professional careers trying to destroy: gold. To be sure, when it comes to polar reversals of opinion, nobody comes even remotely close to Alan Greenspan: the former Fed chairman who is not only instrumental in launching the "Great Moderation", which unleashed the current unprecedented global debt wave which will lead to unprecedented disaster sooner or later, has in recent years become one of gold's biggest advocates as demonstrated most recently in "Greenspan's Stunning Admission: "Gold Is Currency; No Fiat Currency, Including the Dollar, Can Match It."

Now it's the turn of his former colleague at the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who in an interview with the WGC's Gold Investor monthly, pours cold water over Bernanke's "explanation" that gold is merely a tradition, and says the following:

"I am very struck by the fact that over many many years, central banks, governments and individuals have always, despite the protestations of economists, held some gold in their portfolio. Obviously, there is no high running return, but when unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, then gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept. And I think that’s why even central banks have always had a role in their portfolios for gold,” he adds."
The then innocently pointed out that when it comes to defense against hyperinflation, gold remains the, well, gold standard:

“It’s still early days to conclude that around the world, governments have found the solution to maintaining price stability with a managed paper currency. We made real progress in the 1990s and early 2000s and a lot of countries went down that road and followed us. But hyper-inflation has clearly not disappeared – the second biggest hyper-inflation in history was in Zimbabwe in this century – so I can understand why holding gold would seem to be a sensible part of a national portfolio. Because there is clearly a need to take some precautions against an unknowable future.”
But the most interesting observation from Mervyn King's interview comes courtesy of an observation by The Money Trap's Robert Pringle, who writes the following about "Mervyn King's alarmist warning":


According to the World Gold Council, Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, believes that in certain circumstances China’s assets in the US could be “annulled”. Mervyn King’s alarmist warning is  made in an interview, entitled “Present perilous, future imperfect” that appears in the June issue of Gold Investor,  a WGC publication.  After pointing out that “China and other countries do not want to be in a situation where all their iternational assets are in effect dependent on the US”, he is quoted as suggesting that all China’s US assets could be at risk:
 
"Over the last decade or so, the claims by some emerging market countries on the US have grown. Who knows what the future holds, but China and other countries do not want to be in a situation where all their international assets are in effect dependent on the US. Of course the US would not want to renege on its debts, but if some awful conflagration occurred, then all China’s assets in the US might be annulled. So there are plenty of big concerns that make it extremely reasonable to have assets in your portfolio that are not dependent on the goodwill of other countries."
 
The choice of the word “annulled” suggests some kind of deliberate action.  Under what scenario could this be even contemplated?
 
Does he have in mind some sort of armed conflict? That is suggested by his reference to an “awful conflagration”.   He appears to be suggesting that if China and the US went to war, the US could cancel the Treasuries China owns (only those China owns?) and not repay (nor service the interest) unilaterally.
 
He does not say so, but of course this would cause all US Treasuries to collapse, and the US would not be able to issue new bonds.
 
Temporary suspension?
 
If he means that the US would suspend paying interest or capital on the bonds that it owes to China (and its allies) only while the war went on, then he cannot mean ‘annulled.’
 
It is fair to point, as he does,  to concerns that make it  reasonable to have assets in a central bank’s portfolio that are not dependent on the goodwill of other countries.
It is also quite legitimate to consider  extreme scenarios other than those mentioned by Mervyn King; e.g. that US fiscal deficits might grow out of control, ending in rapid inflation or even hyperinflation.
But for Mervyn King to say that there are circumstances in which the US could annul its debts is astonishing. Mervyn King’s alarmist warning goes far beyond scenarios outlined in his recent book “The End of Alchemy”
All we can add to this is that with Icahn, Druckenmiller, and Soros, and now Mervyn King too, all warning that major trouble is coming, we are confident that the algos and the 17-year-old hedge fund managers will be right in betting it all on central banks to keep pushing the S&P to new record highs and beyond even as the global economy grinds to a halt
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 21, 2016, 04:28:42 PM



李嘉诚对中国投下信任票
称长期经济前景光明
61点看 2016年6月21日
(彭博社专讯)香港首富李嘉诚对陷入25年最低增速的中国经济投下了信任票,表示中国长期经济前景充满光明。

亿万富翁李嘉诚接受彭博电视台Angie Lau的采访时表示,中国继续拥有贸易顺差,服务业带来收入,海外资金正在流入。这是李嘉诚自2012年以来首次接受国际媒体采访。他还暗示,那些只看到中国债务水平上升的投资者忽视了大局。


香港首富李嘉诚
香港首富李嘉诚

“大陆长期来看都是好的,”这位87岁的长和主席在他位于长江集团中心顶层的办公室里说道。“人家只能够看到国企或者是民间的负债,但他们另外要看的是中国的出口是那么的多。”

李嘉诚表示,出口是中国面临的一个有利因素,去年中国贸易顺差增至3.7万亿元人民币(5,600亿美元),在人民币贬值导致资本外流的情况下提供了缓冲。

IMF:中国经济中期前景面临着威胁

就在李嘉诚对这个世界第二大经济体展现出信心之际,中国经济也在政府刺激措施推动下显露企稳迹象。然而质疑之声仍不绝于耳。国际货币基金组织(IMF)本月表示,中国经济中期前景面临着威胁,风险包括迅速扩大的信贷规模和工业产能过剩等。

中国债务总额与国内生产总值(GDP)之比已从2008年的164%窜升到2015年的247%。这超过了美国与英国在2008年金融危机之前的债务增长速度。彭博亚洲首席经济学家欧乐鹰表示,过去10年以来,中国债务累积速度超过了任何一个G-20国家。

李嘉诚麾下有大量产业位于中国大陆。长实地产约半数营收来自中国内地,并拥有几十处占地数千英亩的内地物业。作为旗舰公司的长和有14%的息税前利润来自内地,而且李嘉诚还在内地经营着大约2500家屈臣氏和百佳门店。

31022162601
中国经济增速放缓,而消费依然构成支撑。去年中国GDP增长6.9%,是1990年来的最低增速,经济学家预测今年增速将降至6.5%。

崛起的中国

李嘉诚将成功很大程度上归功于中国。他在上周四访谈中表示,20世纪70年代末的时候,刚刚崭露头角的自己接到了“叫我进去”中国市场的邀请。

他与邓小平建立了亲密的关系,时至今日仍亲切称之为“邓伯伯”。李嘉诚说道,当时感觉形势即将迎来变化。

“我自己的感觉是,中国充满希望,”李嘉诚表示。

紧接着,中国进入了规模之大举世未见的工业化进程,李嘉诚正是最大的受益者之一。李嘉诚拥有280亿美元财富,尽管目前在彭博亿万富翁指数排名亚洲第三,但他也是榜首的常客,三个月前还位列亚洲首富。

中国官媒去年开始批评李嘉诚,指责他在经济减速之际减少在内地的投资。《人民日报》甚至发表评论文章称,李嘉诚撤离中国给国家蒙上了阴影。

李嘉诚于9月份采取罕见行动,发表长达三页的声明来回击针对他的指责,并表示他对中国及中国政府完全抱有信心。

“当然我看到这个消息,这个消息根本是糊涂的,”李嘉诚说道。从20世纪70年代末开始投资内地,“我没停过,” 他说道。

告诫英国不要脱欧

在全球对本周英国脱欧公投结果严阵以待之际,香港首富李嘉诚拉高分贝呼吁英国公民选择留在欧盟。

“一脱欧,英国的损害很大,亦对整个欧洲的影响都是不好的,”长和主席李嘉诚接受彭博电视 Angie Lau访问时说。“当然我希望英国不会脱欧。”

这是他自2012年以来首度接受国际媒体访问。

作为英国数一数二的投资人,6月23日的英国脱欧公投对于李嘉诚而言攸关重大,他的担忧与全世界商界和市场领袖的看法形成呼应,他们都在为英国一旦脱欧可能造成的影响做准备。从丰田汽车到通用汽车,各大公司高管纷纷警告称,如果英国选民选择离开欧盟,未来在英国的支出将会受到削弱。

李嘉诚三个月前表示,万一英国公投结果真的是脱离欧盟,他会减少在英国的投资。上周四他接受彭博电视访问时也谈到看好中国经济远景,这位现年87岁的亿万富翁强调称,不管公投结果如何,他在英国和欧洲的生意会持续下去。目前民调显示,公投结果难料。

虽然上周不同的民调都暗示,“脱欧”阵营会胜出,但英国《星期日邮报》委讬民调公司Survation 于6月17-18日所做的调查显示,“留欧”阵营领先“脱欧”阵营3个百分点,与Survation之前调查的结果相反。

根据彭博亿万富翁指数,李嘉诚财富达280亿美元,在亚洲排名第三,仅次于阿里巴巴集团的马云和万达集团的王健林。不过他常常高居榜首,三个月前还位列亚洲首富。

由于他的商业头脑,他被当地媒体封为“超人”,但是李嘉诚最近遭遇了一些挫折,主要是在英国。


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 22, 2016, 08:55:32 AM



财经
中國民營經濟陷兩難 不轉型等死 轉不好找死
 50点阅   2016年6月21日 大中華圈
(北京21日訊)中國經濟從“短缺經濟”過渡到“過剩經濟”,許多民營企業面對新情況,都存在“不轉型是等死”和“轉不好是找死”的兩難選擇。

中國國家統計局數據顯示,與基礎設施投資、房地產投資並成為“投資三大引擎”的民間投資,在今年1至5月份僅增長3.9%,與2015年同期的10.1%的增速相比,明顯下跌。



《新華社》報導,14日在2016年中國非公有制經濟發展論壇上,今年以來中國經濟的民間投資增速放緩,成為1300餘名民營經濟界人士熱烈討論的話題。

據“風傳媒”報導,申萬宏源證券研究所首席經濟學家楊成長認為,民營經濟的主要問題,是民營企業的企業制度和管理模式沒有與時俱進地進行改革,大部分民營企業沒有實現現代企業制度,民營企業的落後製度跟新常態下經營發展的需求出現了脫節,造成了同質產品過剩、對新技術革命的應對不足等困難。

中國經濟學者馬光遠和清華大學國情研究院院長胡鞍鋼等專家呼籲,中國民營企業應該正視中國經濟所處的世界經濟格局變動以及企業自身發展所面臨的不足,並號召民營企業向中國高端製造的代表華為技術有限公司學習。

他們認為,華為這家通訊科技領域的民營企業在不到30年時間內,依靠科技創新,成功躋身該領域的世界巨頭。2015年,該公司收入達到608億美元(約2457億令吉),產品服務全球三分之一以上的人口,國際專利註冊數量居全球企業首位
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 04, 2016, 07:25:58 AM



2016-07-03 09:33
中国债务有多严重?
中国债务再次成为世界话题。国际货币基金组织(IMF)第一副总裁利普顿日前警告说,中国在债务问题上“面临着非同寻常的挑战”。

(图:法新社)
(香港3日讯)中国债务再次成为世界话题。国际货币基金组织(IMF)第一副总裁利普顿日前警告说,中国在债务问题上“面临着非同寻常的挑战”。

广告

据中国社科院数据,截至2015年底,中国债务总额为168.48万亿元(人民币,下同),全社会杠杆率为249%,在主要经济体中属中等水平。从结构上看,中国居民债务率约为40%,金融部门债务率约为21%,政府部门债务率约为40%。如果加上融资平台,则为57%。值得注意的是,非金融企业部门债务率高达131%,如果把融资平台债务加进来(这部份与政府债务有所重叠),这个数字将升至156%。

总债务168.48万亿
杠杆非特别高

同期,中国纳入预算管理的政府债务合计26.66万亿元,占GDP比重为39.4%。如果以更宽的口径估算,政府债务水平为56.8%,仍然低于60%的国际警戒线。和日本超过200%、美国超过120%、法国120%左右、德国80%左右相比,中国的政府债务率在全球范围内不算太高。

不过,关于中国债务规模和杠杆率究竟有多高,一直存在多个版本。有机构甚至预计,中国杠杆率已经高达300%。

“这个好像有点夸张”,中国央行调查统计司副司长阮健弘称,有些机构在估算债务规模时直接将一些统计指标相加,这并不严谨。“实际上每个统计指标中,各个机构部门在这个债务工具上都有交叉,他们相互之间的交叉有多少,需要搞清楚”。

广告

“自己人欠自己人”
不虞爆灾难

对世界第二大经济体来说,百万亿元债务并非不能承受之重。据统计,按宽口径匡算,到2014年底中国主权资产总计227.3万亿元,主权负债124万亿元,资产净值103.3万亿元;按窄口径匡算,则资产净值为28.5万亿元。

不管是哪种口径,中国主权资产净值均为正值。也就是说,“资不抵债”没有可能。

“中国不会发生债务危机。”中国社科院学部委员李扬指出,即使出现大规模债务违约,中国也有足够的资财,在不对经济造成较大冲击的条件下妥善处理。

内债为主的债务结构也提高了中国的“安全系数”。与外国不同,中国的债务问题发生在“广义政府”,也就是国有企业、国有金融机构、中央政府、地方政府内。而这四大板块内部是可以辗转腾挪的。

李扬说,这种“自己人欠自己人”式的债务,使中国债务问题可在不依赖国际因素的环境下处理,“不可能产生颠覆性、灾难性的变化”。

让“僵尸企业”入土为安

但眼下安全不代表可高枕无忧。因经济下行压力不减,企业利润缩水、债务增加、偿债能力降低,已成为中国经济运行的一大潜在风险点。

据媒体报道,2016年以来中国企业债违约已近30只,涉及金额逾200亿元。“企业债仍然是一个严重且不断恶化的问题,必须立即加以解决。”利普顿警告说。

针对如何降低企业杠杆率,中国国家发改委财政金融司副司长孙学工表示,对“僵尸企业”,要通过破产清算和兼并重组相结合的方式解决,“该出清的要坚决出清”,不让僵尸企业长时间存活下去;对一般的高杠杆企业,可促其调整自身业务结构,更加聚焦主业;对杠杆率较高,但还不至于沦为“僵尸企业”的,可进行债务重组。

“降杠杆的基本原则是市场化、法治化”,孙学工强调说,“一切都将在阳光下运行。”(香港明报:冯其十)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2016.07.03
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 04, 2016, 02:16:46 PM



Predictions of a Chinese banking system bailout are going mainstream
Bloomberg By Jun Luo, Paul Panckhurst, Cynthia Li
14 hours ago

 China Bank Bailout Calls Grow Louder as Markets Seen Vulnerable .
View photo
 

Predictions of a Chinese banking system bailout are going mainstream.

What was once the fringe view of permabears and short sellers is now increasingly being adopted by economists at some of the world’s biggest banks and brokerages. Nine of 15 respondents in a Bloomberg survey at the end of last month, including Standard Chartered Plc and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, predicted a government-funded recapitalization will take place within two years. Among those who provided estimates of the cost, a majority said it will exceed $500 billion.

While a bailout of that size would be a far cry from the $10 trillion forecast of U.S. hedge fund manager Kyle Bass in February, the responses reflect widespread concern that Chinese lenders will struggle to cope as bad loans surge. Even as some analysts said a state recapitalization would put the banking system on a stronger footing, 80 percent of respondents predicted news of a rescue would weigh on Chinese markets -- dragging down bank stocks and the yuan while pushing up government borrowing costs and credit risk.

More from Bloomberg.com: Almost Everyone Thinks the Pound's Days Are Numbered

“A recapitalization will happen after the Chinese government comes clean with the true nonperforming loan figure,” said Kevin Lai, the Hong Kong-based chief economist for Asia ex-Japan at Daiwa Capital Markets. “That will require a lot of money creation.”

At CBA in Sydney, analyst Li Wei said the Bloomberg survey was the first time he’d estimated the timing and cost of a recapitalization. The topic became more prominent after an article calling for the nation to tackle leverage and bad debt appeared in the People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of China’s ruling Communist Party, in May. That same month, Societe Generale SA issued a 48-page report wargaming restructuring options for China’s state-owned enterprises and banks.

More from Bloomberg.com: Turnbull Confident of Forming Government Despite Election Limbo

QuickTake: China’s Debt Bomb

Chinese lenders are grappling with a growing mountain of bad debt after flooding the financial system with cheap credit for years to prop up economic growth. Non-performing loans jumped by more than 40 percent in the 12 months ended March to 1.4 trillion yuan ($210 billion), or 1.75 percent of the total, according to government data. The figures are widely believed to understate the true scale of the problem, with CLSA Ltd. estimating NPLs were probably closer to 11.4 trillion yuan at the end of last year.

The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission didn’t reply to faxed requests for comment.

Chinese banks will be able to maintain relatively high capital levels even if they’re hit by severe shocks, the central bank said in its 2016 financial stability report last month. A stress test of 31 large- and mid-sized Chinese banks showed their aggregate capital-adequacy ratio falling to 10.97 percent from 13.32 percent in a worst-case scenario, the PBOC said. China will require systemically-important banks to have a ratio of 11.5 percent by the end of 2018.

More from Bloomberg.com: Let Germany Offer Young Britons Citizenship, Merkel Deputy Says

Some economists are less sanguine, predicting that Chinese banks will need state help as loan losses erode capital buffers. A majority of the survey respondents said policy makers will use a mix of foreign reserves, state assets sales, sovereign bond issuance or money printed by the central bank to fund a recapitalization. Most of the economists who estimated a tab for a bailout said it will cost at least $500 billion, with forecasters from CBA and Hamagin Research Institute saying it could climb to as much as $3 trillion.

Stepping In

It wouldn’t be the first time China’s government has stepped in to support its banks, most of which are still majority-owned by the state. When the country’s NPL ratio climbed to as high as 40 percent in the late 1990s, policy makers sold special bonds to recapitalize the four biggest lenders and set up state-run bad banks to buy 1.4 trillion yuan of soured loans at face value. The effort was largely a success, setting the stage for more than a decade of breakneck growth that turned China into the world’s second-largest economy and helped many of its biggest companies tap into global capital markets.

A government bailout “will help write off bad debt and help banks clean up their balance sheets,” said Ding Shuang, the head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong. “It’s a positive thing if it really happens.”

Of course, some analysts argue that a bailout by the government won’t be necessary. Iris Pang of Natixis SA says lenders can replenish their capital by selling bonds and equity.

Yuan’s Role

Others foresee more extreme scenarios. Bass, the Dallas-based founder of Hayman Capital Management, says a large devaluation of the Chinese currency will be the centerpiece of a government response that may also include cutting interest rates to zero. The yuan will fall in excess of 30 percent against the dollar, Bass predicts, helping to boost export competitiveness and “reset” the economy.

“China will save its banks, and the renminbi will be the valve for normalization,” Bass told investors in a February letter, referring to another name for the yuan.

In May report called “Restructuring China Inc.,” Societe Generale analysts said losses in the banking system could reach $1.2 trillion. They advised avoiding shares of lenders until after a debt restructuring in coming years, and said if government bond sales surged as part of funding a recapitalization, sovereign borrowing costs could rise by 100 basis points or more across all maturities.

Chinese markets are already signaling anxiety over losses in the banking system. The nation’s four biggest lenders trade at an average 32 percent discount to net assets in Hong Kong, suggesting investors are braced for big writedowns, a recapitalization that dilutes their equity stakes, or some combination of both. The yuan just capped its biggest quarterly decline since China unified the official and market rates in 1994, while market perceptions of the nation’s default risk have almost doubled since late 2014.

“The government appears to still be in the process of working out how to restructure,” Yao Wei, China economist at Societe Generale, said in the report. “This is the root of the uneasiness -- the excruciating time spent waiting before the government takes action.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 15, 2016, 06:26:11 PM



财经  2016年07月15日
中国次季经济成长略优预期

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(北京15日讯)中国次季经济成长略优于预期,显示政府財政和货幣刺激政策继续奏效。但同时,对于下半年的经济走势,统计局官员和彭博採访的市场分析师均忧心忡忡。

国家统计局周五公佈,次季国內生產总值(GDP)同比成长6.7%。数据公佈前,参与彭博调查的经济学家料该季GDP同比成长6.6%。看分项数据,6月工业生產、零售销售增速均优于预期,上半年固定资產投资增速略弱于预估。

財富证券分析师陈鹏表示,「总体来说,这些数据稍微好过市场预期。」他指出,贷款和融资数据特別强,这样或意味著央行近期降准降息的机率要降低。

但是,包括陈鹏在內的数位分析师,以及统计局发言人盛来运均表达了对经济前景的担忧。


盛来运在今天的新闻发布会上表示,中国经济面临复杂严峻的外部环境,英国脱欧给世界经济增添不確定性。同时他指出,传统行业乏力和小企业贷款困难抑制了民间固定资產投资的成长。

从整体数字看,中国政府似乎已经稳住了规模达10多兆美元的全球第2大经济体,尝试並且成功运用了信贷扩张支撑经济。央行今日同期发布的数据显示,6月份社会融资规模1.63兆人民幣,远超预估的1.1兆人民幣,是5月融资总量的两倍还多。人民幣新增贷款、M2增速均超预期。

今年3月的两会上,中国政府將2016年的经济成长目標设定为6.5%-7%,並宣布將动用有史以来最高的財政赤字率、实施灵活適度的稳健货幣政策和推动国企改革来推动经济成长。中国第一季GDP较上年同期成长6.7%。

上海金旷投资的首席策略师张海东在电话中表示,「从今天的经济数据来看,国家的稳成长举措起到一定效果。情况没有变得更糟,但是下半年处于L型的格局仍未改变,调结构还是主要任务。」

他认为,中国A股市场应该仍维持低位的宽幅震盪。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 15, 2016, 06:28:22 PM



China Q2 economic growth beats estimates as stimulus shores up demand
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China's economy narrowly beat estimates Friday with a 6.7 percent expansion on-year in the three months through June, as a string of stimulus measures from the government and the central bank helped shore up demand.

Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated a growth rate of 6.6 percent.

The headline figure from the National Bureau of Statistics was steady from the previous quarter's 6.7 percent pace.

Second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 1.8 percent from the first quarter, Reuters reported.

The Chinese government is aiming for growth of 6.5 to 7 percent this year, a slower pace than what the world's second-largest economy had got accustomed to in the past two decades.
China's economy is gradually transitioning to a greater reliance on consumption compared with a previous emphasis on manufacturing but the transformation hasn't been all smooth-sailing. For 2015, Beijing logged 6.9 percent growth, its slowest pace in 25 years.

The country's second quarter GDP figure was not unexpected, as China has been careful to prep markets for further signs of a gradual deceleration.

Chinese premier Li Keqiang said this week that the the Chinese economy was "basically stable," following comments on July 4, reported by state media agency Xinhua, that it was "not easy" to achieve Q1's 6.7 percent growth rate and that the economy would show "continued steady development."
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 23, 2016, 09:33:51 AM



2016-07-23 09:08
李克强:仍属发展中国家·中难挑全球经济大梁
英国脱欧使世界经济不确定性进一步增加,中国总理李克强周五表示,中国不能成为全球经济的主要支撑。他又明言中国绝不会加入一场货币战争,会保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的稳定。
(中国·北京22日讯)英国脱欧使世界经济不确定性进一步增加,中国总理李克强周五表示,中国不能成为全球经济的主要支撑。他又明言中国绝不会加入一场货币战争,会保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的稳定。

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中不打贸易战货币战

李克强当天在北京与世界银行丶国际货币基金组织(IMF)丶世贸组织等6个国际组织举行圆桌会议(1+6圆桌会议)后,作出上述表示。因英国脱欧带来不确定性,IMF日前下调今明两年的全球经济增长预测。

李克强表示,中国将会保持经济稳定。

他提出全球经济不能继续下滑,但指中国仍是一个发展中国家,中国在全球经济中不能挑大梁,中国并不能作为全球经济的主要支撑。

他表示,要拉抬全球经济增长将需要世界提升宏观经济协调,和增加宏观政策的透明度。

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金墉赞中传递协作精神

IMF在下调全球经济展望的当儿,把中国经济上调至6.6%。李克强称,这使中国承受“保持增长和稳定”的“压力”,他补充,IMF应鼓励所有国家向同一方向推进。

在李克强发表讲话后,世界银行行长金墉赞扬中国,在当前一些西方国家,对于全球化或者多边主义都出现了抵制的倾向之际,传递了中国协作精神。

有媒体称,“1+6圆桌会议”这一对话尚属首次,突显北京希望扩大在多边国际组织中的影响力。本周六,20国集团(G20)财长与央行行长会议将在成都举行。中国和欧盟正围绕中国市场经济地位及向欧洲出口廉价钢材,贸易纠纷升级。

文章来源:
星洲日报/国际·2016.07.23
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 24, 2016, 08:51:57 PM



China cannot easily solve debt problem, but no systemic risks, says finance minister
Published: July 24, 2016 04:28 PM GMT+8

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Lou Jiwei: China to rely mainly on supply-side reform. — Reuters pic
Lou Jiwei: China to rely mainly on supply-side reform. — Reuters pic
CHENGDU (China), July 24 — China’s finance minister Lou Jiwei warned today that the government cannot easily step in to solve debt problems, but that China does not have systemic regional debt risks despite a few corporate defaults.

Lou was speaking at the conclusion of the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu.

He said the country would take steps to prevent risks involving strategically important financial institutions, and implement both demand-side and supply-side policies — but rely mainly on supply-side reform. — Reuters

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/china-cannot-easily-solve-debt-problem-but-no-systemic-risks-says-finance-m#sthash.kY1YqnUi.dpuf
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on August 06, 2016, 04:06:42 PM


财经  2016年08月05日
格老:中国经济体製难持久油价40美元见底

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(纽约5日讯)前美联储(Fed)主席格林斯潘表示,中国经济体制「难以持续」,而原油价格过去两个月暴跌超过20%,並进入空头市场之后,或许已经在每桶40美元附近见底。

华盛顿投资諮询公司RockCreekGroup主办的一场电话会议的记录显示,格林斯潘说,中国经济体制「难以持续」,因为政府实际上是在担保「所有一切」免于损失。他们尝试做出改变「是开始向正確方向迈进,」但面对政治上的阻力「又改弦易辙」。

谈到油价,格林斯潘说:「我难以想像还会大幅下跌,但也有这种可能。」

他预测未来两年油价將在大约每桶40-50美元这个区间交易。他说,50美元足以刺激美国国內新的页岩油生產。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on September 09, 2016, 11:02:52 AM


G20盛事背后/李慧易
121点看 2016年9月9日

意犹未尽●李慧易
新闻从业员
在杭州G20峰会场域中,虽然马来西亚未能参与,但却看了一场又一场的大戏。纵贯各成员国领导人与会的种种动作,尽显现出国际关系上大小国不对称、大国与大国之间的关系平衡又或者是权力平衡之下,而引起各种不平衡。

是的,先谈谈这一场G20 在杭州掀开序幕,再次奠定中国崛起的事实,G20对中国而言就是一种盛事,同时也是展现在国际舞台上彰显全球治理中国力量。


最精彩的一幕,当然是奥巴马远赴杭州的“红毯”事件,大家都说出席奥斯卡、金球奖也罢,各大咖明星还不就是为了想走红毯,过过“毯星”瘾。

至于,这一次,因传说中明星们都很在乎的“红毯”,让美中之间有了隔阂。

据悉,9月3日下午,美国总统奥巴马要来了,人还未到中国官员就说不能“一般对待”,可是却酿出了国际关系上的“失误”,据闻,中美官员在机场“爆发争吵”。

中美官员机场“争吵”

纽约时报的大幅度报道指出,“当我们在机场集结,准备拍摄总统走下飞机的场景时,我们却意外地遇到安保人员的阻拦——他们拉起一条亮蓝色的隔离带。

“我报道白宫新闻已经六年了,还从来没有遇到过一个东道国阻挡记者目睹奥巴马走下飞机”。

此外,恐怕不怕雪上加霜,路透社发布的一段手机视频显示,白宫工作人员向飞机旁的中国官员提出抗议说“这是美国总统和美国飞机”。

中国官员则打著夸张的手势回应说,“这是在我们的机场,这是在我们的国家。”

就这样,一道大剌剌的裂痕从此烙印在两国之间,为何会特别在意奥巴马,因为这也是任期即将结束的美国总统奥巴马的最后一次亚洲之行。

如此一来,“重返亚洲”的奥巴马是否还能够展现其美国作为世界中心的力量?

就好比连一个“红毯”都不让美国总统来走一回了,意味重返亚洲只不过是比口号还虚的戏码?


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on September 09, 2016, 08:46:18 PM



龙门阵  2016年09月09日 | 作者:彼岸 | 专栏:炉边杂谈
揖盗引狼

2014年4月,奥巴马访问亚洲四国。不是协助化干戈为玉帛,而是挑拨离间,火上浇油!一到日本,他便迫不及待地叫囂,在领土爭端上假如受到中国攻击,美国將保卫日本。在菲律宾,他又发誓,美国將保卫菲律宾,击退中国的侵略。他公然把中国的捍卫领土顛倒为「侵略」。

一切以自己的利益为依归的美国,会为保卫日本或者菲律宾而发动两败俱伤的第三次世界大战吗?痴心妄想!连三岁小孩都想得通!

美国在南海喊打喊杀,除了给多灾多难和动乱不已的当今世界,增添一股呛鼻的杀气,叫人不寒而慄之外,还使得出什么像样的法宝?

合作双贏,对抗两败。2003年,世界超霸美国,侵略毫无抵抗能力的伊拉克。在这次的伊拉克战爭中,美国军队就直接和间接杀害了近100万伊拉克平民,自己也蒙受惨重的损失:士兵有4500个战死,3万5700个受伤,4万5000个致病;所花军费已经超过1亿美元,伊拉克被摧毁,导致今天的內战连连,残局难以收拾。这是两败的一个例子,而且是以强欺弱的两败,假如是强强对决,后果將是全人类的大灾难。

「司马昭之心,路人皆知」。美国一方面对日本防范有加,另一方面又不费一兵一卒,利用它来围堵中国,甚至干戈相见,以拖延中国的崛起。日本也有不可告人的企图,它顺水推舟,扇动美中互相残杀,以致两败俱伤,削弱这两个大国的势力,以摆脱美国的操控。「鷸蚌相爭,渔人得利」:美日的这种沙盘推演,不约而同。

美国霸权压制中国

回想日本军国主义者不但参与发动二战,胆敢偷袭珍珠港,还在侵略中国的8年里,进行惨无人道的三光政策,明目张胆,肆无忌惮,气势汹汹,不可一世,为什么今天在无能一报遭受两颗原子弹轰炸的深仇大恨之余,反而跪求美国保护?民族尊严何存?国体何在?

有一种似是而非的看法,甚囂尘上。南海爭端交给国际法院裁决。任何案件,一经政治化,便没有公正可言。眾所周知,国际法院也好,仲裁庭也罢,甚至整个联合国,都由美国只手掌控,而破坏和分裂中国,对美国来说,正中下怀。

为了围堵中国,美日从中挑拨,並且给越南和菲律宾撑腰,而这两个小国也趁机配合反华,企图把对几十个南海岛屿的非法佔领合法化。1970年,邓小平宽大为怀,在主权归我的前提下,提出「搁置爭议,共同开发」的双贏主张,作出了重大的让步。这个善意,没有被接纳,反而被当做软弱可欺的表现。

在南海爭端上,新加坡居然一边倒,不是倒向正义,而是倒向霸权主义和军国主义;李显龙让美国军舰入驻的同时,还多次发表反华歪论,给美国和日本的战爭叫囂扇风浇油。前门揖盗,后门引狼。当今世界的主流是合作双贏,不是对抗两败,是和平共存,不是战爭毁灭。

中国崛起了,最害怕的莫过于美国。奥巴马选拔的前国务卿希拉里不久前就这么断言:中国政府对「阿拉伯之春」无限「恐惧」,又说:「他们企图阻止歷史前进,这是痴心妄想白费心机。他们做不到。」这个「他们」指中国人民。希拉里的仇华情绪,溢于言表。我们反对的是美国霸权主义,她仇视中国是为了什么?反共反人民?反和平反进步?都是!谁在阻挡歷史车轮前进?天理昭然
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on September 17, 2016, 10:31:10 AM



国际  2016年09月16日
深圳房价全球第2贵

2.9K
深圳房价全球第2贵

美国经济咨询公司Longview Economics的一项最新研究显示,隨著过去一年中国一线城市房价的疯狂上涨,深圳已成为全球房价第2贵的城市,仅次於加州圣何塞。

分析显示,深圳典型住宅的价格已达到80万美元(约330万令吉)左右,房价收入比为70倍。自2015年初以来,这座城市的房价平均上涨76%,从去年4月开始加速上涨。

而北京和上海的情况相似,儘管不像深圳那么极端
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on September 19, 2016, 02:49:43 PM



警報響起◢國際清算銀行警告 中銀行業壓力指標創新高
 2045点阅   2016年9月19日
圖片來源:彭博社
圖片來源:彭博社
國際清算銀行(BIS)表示,中國首季金融壓力的一項警告指標,已升至紀錄最高,突顯中國企業債快速累積,使中國和全世界面臨風險。

據《自由時報》報導,國際清算銀行指出,中國首季信貸擴張差額(Credit-to-GDP Gap)升至30.1%,成為1995年開始記錄以來最高水平。



若有關指數超過10%,代表金融壓力有升高的風險,而數字若破表,代表信貸過度成長,金融危機可能迫在眼前。

該行指出,指數超過10%后,接下來3年就面臨嚴重的金融壓力。以中國為例,該國自2009年年中以來,大部分時間都超過10%這個門檻,今年首季的信貸擴張差額,超越41個國家和歐元區。

上述指數也明顯超過東南亞在1997年亞洲金融危機爆發之前的高讀數,高于2008年雷曼兄弟倒下之前的美國讀數。

不過,中國社會科學院學部委員、國家金融與發展試驗室理事長李揚曾稱,無需對此過于擔憂,中國債務水平從全球來看不算太高,中國政府的債務處于可控範圍內。

中國問題最大的是非金融企業部門債務,債務率于2015年底高達131%。

國際清算銀行有著“央行的央行”之稱,該行獨創的信貸擴張差額(Credit-to-GDP Gap),是指私人非金融部門信貸與國內生產總值之比的缺口。所謂的缺口,是指信貸與國內生產總值比例與其長期回溯趨勢的偏離度
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on September 20, 2016, 03:03:27 PM



里昂:中國影子金融虧很大,恐賠掉3.7%的GDP
回應(0) 人氣(74) 收藏(0) 2016/09/20 14:05
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-09-20 14:05:17 記者 陳瑞哲 報導
中國的金融體系近期屢屢被外界關切,里昂證券(CLSA)最新報告指出,大陸影子金融的壞帳損失,恐吃掉中國全年經濟產值3.7個百分點。

里昂估計,中國2015年影子金融規模已膨脹至54兆人民幣或8.1兆美元,相當於中國GDP的八成(79%),當中有64%是銀行所承作。影子金融泛指銀行規避監管的表外放貸。(英國金融時報)

如以16%的不良放款率做估計,影子金融潛在壞帳來到4.2兆人民幣。再假設壞帳回收率四成,損失將達2.5兆人民幣。

里昂分析師Francis Cheung指出,影子金融快速膨脹,是中國金融改革失敗下的產物。銀行為求獲利,只能想盡辦法躲避監管,且由於隱含政府部門做擔保,影子金融已成為高風險產業的融資管道。

除此之外,大陸銀行一般授信業務的問題也很大。里昂五月發佈的另一份報告估計,大陸銀行一般授信壞帳至少是官方數據的九倍,潛在損失超過一兆美元。

*編者按:本文僅供參考之用,並不構成要約、招攬或邀請、誘使、任何不論種類或形式之申述或訂立任何建議及推薦,讀者務請運用個人獨立思考能力,自行作出投資決定,如因相關建議招致損失,概與《精實財經媒體》、編者及作者無涉


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on September 28, 2016, 07:27:08 AM



名家  2016年09月27日 | 作者:陈锦松 | 专栏:质正皓然
一带一路,路在何方?

「一带一路」2013年由中国国家主席习近平提出后,成了中国经济发展的重要战略佈局。「一带一路」是「丝绸之路经济带」和「21世纪海上丝绸之路」的简称,中国曾经的风光经济能否借此而起死回生?马来西亚在一带一路的大格局中是否能找到商机还是面对威胁?

无可否认,前任中国国家主席胡锦涛自2002年至2012年的任期被视为是中国发展最为快速的「黄金十年」,2008年北京奥运会申办的耀眼光环,2010年上海世博会的惊艷全球,以及2009年时速350公里的高铁开通运营,在这期间还实现了载人航天飞行和探月飞行的巨大飞跃,外匯储备从2860亿美元(1.17万亿令吉)增加到3.3万亿美元(13.5万亿令吉),交出了骄人的成绩单,但这同时社会也出现奢华挥霍的「歌舞昇平」,腐败与色情同步。

带动全球经济

这十年间,中国国內生產总值(GDP)平均每年都保持近两位数的增长,相继超越德国、日本成为世界第二大经济体。2011年中国货物贸易进出口总额跃居世界第二位,连续3年成为世界最大出口国和第二大进口国。在改革开放的短短30年时间里,中国已经成为全球第一大外匯储备国。在过去25年中国经济经歷了迅速增长,並以其巨大的经济增长规模带动了亚洲和全球经济。


好景不常,习近平在2012年底接下棒子后,大幅度的经济增长已经一去不返,2014年中国经济成长率仅7.3%,2015年的增长率更下降到了6.9%,成为1/4世纪以来中国经济增长的最低水平。中国面对的经济压力也逐渐显现。2013年提出的「一带一路」,宏观是要改变经济发展的脉络与格局,也是引导中国对外的主要经济战略。目前已有60个国家和国际组织响应一带一路。这些国家的总人口约44亿,经济总量约21亿美元(86亿令吉),分別佔全世界的63%和29%。

事实上,一带一路是否真能带动周边的经济,有人「乐观期待」,有人「悲观退场」。马来西亚作为「被钦点」的一带一路东南亚国家之一,这些年多场研討会的举行,大家都聚焦一带一路的「美景」,但企业界与专家学者的看法回到现实层面是否依然充满无限「机遇」?

房產有价无市

中国企业上千亿资金的投入房地產,特別是新山依斯干达区的蓬勃景象,每栋上百万的楼房看似造就了风光的楼市与楼盘,但大部分的卖家主要都在吸引中国的买家,飞涨的房价不是本地工薪阶层负担得起的,在严苛的贷款条件下,房產有价无市。一些媒体分析指,中国过去「大包大揽」的做事风格,一带一路的建设,巨大的投入最后可能製造出巨大的「国际性烂尾工程」,不得不警惕。

一带一路的商机被无限的放大,好像什么东西都可以扯上「一带一路」,就是2015年开始招生的厦门大学分校也被列为一带一路的战略。

马来西亚近515所的私立大学与大专院校分佈全国,厦大的加入必然会对目前竞爭激烈的学院及大学生態產生挤压效应。特別是厦大庞大资金的投入、宏伟的建筑、完善的设备、优美的校园,加上巨额奖学金的发放令许多私立大学及学院难以「招架」。

最近报导声称,中国学生近400多人已到马来西亚厦大分校报到,无不羡煞那些几尽全力开拓中国市场及招收中国学生的大学与学院。相对于民办的大学学院,南方大学学院、新纪元学院及韩江学院,厦大分校享有华文媒体「关照」的程度尤胜前者,大篇幅的报道,加上名人商贾的造访,让人窥探到其巨大的商界与政治影响力。

中国首间大学在大马办校,台湾不甘示弱,其「新南向政策」也对准马来西亚,这也是其全球战略佈局。台湾的留学政策放宽,马来西亚学生是最受欢迎的对象。台湾教育部指出,2014年境外生来台正式修读学位人数前五名的国家或地区,依序为:马来西亚、中国大陆、香港、澳门、越南,其中马来西亚成长最多,尤其马来西亚侨生与外籍生人数达一万三千多人。为吸引海外学生来台,台湾教育部近年来持续强化海外招生政策,结合相关机构及各大专校院增加热门科系名额、扩大提供奖学金等。

南海爭端

马来西亚目前是中国在亚洲的第三大贸易伙伴,中国在东盟国家中的第一大贸易伙伴,中国则连续7年成为马来西亚最大贸易伙伴。

但是至到今天,马来西亚与中国仍有南海爭端,华商在南海问题的立场充满了「矛盾」,但在主权的观念下,「国家主权利益」与「商业利益」必须釐清,华商不得不重视大马外交部的南海立场,如果因此与中国「走得太近」,难免引发「效忠」的疑虑,许多华商不得不保持沉默。

一带一路的远景是困局还是机遇,当前华商华人的「一厢情愿」与马来民族的「兴致索然」形成强烈的对比,一带一路的列车已经开动,国人必须看清马来西亚的政治环境、经济结构、种族心態、人口增长、以及购买力等因素,才能避免在「利益」与「风险」评估上误判形势,也迴避在一带一路的「大潮中」被吞没。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 08, 2016, 08:48:54 AM



房地产泡沫若破裂
中国恐增2.55兆坏账
179点看 2016年10月8日

(北京7日讯)观察中国的专家们开始估算,一旦该国炽热的房地产市场转向,银行面临的影响会有多大。


星展唯高达香港测算,若房价下跌30%,便有可能导致银行贷款总额的4%,也就是4.1兆人民币(约2.55兆令吉)变成不良贷款。

德国商业银行则表示,这种幅度的下跌可能引发4兆人民币(约2.5兆令吉)的债务违约。

太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)预计,鉴于来自房地产行业的风险,不良贷款率未来几年将由目前的1.75%,最高达到6%。

救银行业动摇股市

虽然在这种情形下,银行业的损失与2008年金融危机后美国高达1.3兆美元(约5.4兆令吉)的损失仍相形见绌,但经济学家们越来越多地预期会出现对银行系统的救助,从而可能动摇股市,并推高政府的借贷成本。

中国央行研究局首席经济学家马骏早前接受《第一财经》专访时称,在房地产领域当中还是需要采取很多措施抑制泡沫过度的增长。深圳房价在一年里大涨了60%。

Pimco常驻新加坡的新兴市场基金经理罗兰米特表示,近年来中国住宅价格的上涨,尤其是今年,令人感到担忧。

“这种同比30%甚至更大的涨幅,通常预示一种泡沫现象。”

德意志银行在报告中写道,房地产可能会在2018年面临严厉的调整,因为泡沫正在蔓延到更多的城市。

而高盛集团称:“在房价“暴涨”之后,局面变得越来越脆弱。”

地产商贷款首当其冲

星展唯高达分析员陈姝瑾表示,房地产行业是中国银行体系面临的最大隐忧。如果房价下降很多,首先会影响房地产开发商贷款的质量,因为他们杠杆度最高;其次将影响按揭贷款。

陈姝瑾估计,7%的贷款流向开发商,20%则是住房按揭。

彭博汇总的数据显示,144家上市房地产商债务总额中值相较利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利的比率,从5年前的4.9倍,跃升至8.1倍。


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 10, 2016, 07:50:27 AM



Sunday, 9 October 2016 | MYT 1:03 PM
China's top central banker cautions against hot property prices






 Chinese government is "paying close attention" to rising property prices in some cities.
Chinese government is "paying close attention" to rising property prices in some cities.
 
BEIJING: China's central bank governor stepped up rhetoric against rapid rises in home prices and continued credit growth, signalling further action on top of recent fresh curbs across a number of cities to cool their overheated real estate markets.


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Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBoC), said the Chinese government is "paying close attention" to rising property prices in some cities and will take appropriate measures to promote the real estate market's "healthy development".

The remarks were made at a G20 meeting in Washington earlier this week and released by the PBOC on its website on Saturday.

A number of Chinese cities, including Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Chengdu and Wuhan, announced new restrictions on property purchases and mortgage downpayment during China's week-long National Day holiday in the beginning of October. The moves came as part of an effort to ward off property speculation.

Vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao echoed Zhou's remarks in an interview with the official Xinhua News Agency, saying the government's targeted measures to curb hot property prices were "timely and appropriate", according to a Xinhua report late on Saturday.

The two top officials' latest remarks signalled that Beijing will continue to target property speculators and curb credit risks in the real estate sector to prevent bubbles.

While a property boom has helped to support China's economic growth, fuelling demand for everything from construction materials to furniture, it is seen as adding credit risks to the banking system and China's debt problem.

Zhou told the G20 meeting China will control credit growth as the global economy recovers.

The International Monetary Fund said in August that China needed to slow credit growth and stop funding weak firms, highlighting the worries among policymakers about the dangers of an unsustainable debt build-up triggering a banking crisis. - Reuters
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 19, 2016, 08:03:37 PM



财经  2016年10月19日
中国第3季经济成长6.7%符预期

(北京19日讯)中国经济在第3季企稳,增长6.7%,得益于宽鬆的信贷环境、房地產市场热潮以及其他刺激措施。经济学家认为,这些刺激措施是以牺牲必要的重组为代价。

中国政府週三公佈的第3季经济增速与第2季持平,也符合市场和经济学家的预期。最近几年,中国经济增长一直在放缓,不过,今年有望实现政府不低于6.5%的增速目標。

经济学家们预计,这种加快的经济增速將持续至年底,得益于大量贷款以及政府支出的扶持,政府支出提振了基础设施投资,并推动房地產市场反弹。

然而,经济学家们指出,上述措施儘管有助于短期增长,但掩盖了工业產能过剩、企业负债高企等更深层的问题。


法国Groupe BPCE旗下投资银行法国外贸银行(Natixis)经济学家加西亚埃雷罗(Alicia Garcia-Herrero)说,中国已经通过货幣政策和財政政策推高了经济增速,这是他们所能採取的全部措施。

经济指標喜忧参半根据国家计局公佈的数据,9月份规模以上工业增加值较上年同期增长6.1%,8月份为增长6.3%。1-9月份不含农户的固定资產投资同比增长8.2%,较1-8月份的8.1%增速小幅提高。

受汽车购置税削减提振,9月份社会消费品零售总额较上年同期增长10.7%,8月份增幅为10.6%。

强劲的房地產市场是经济学家和政府特別关注的问题。最近数月一些大城市房价已较上年同期上涨超过40%。上一季度房屋贷款佔新增贷款的比例为60%,高于第2季的47%和首季的23%。20多个城市的政府已经出台限制性措施,以在不阻碍经济增长的情况下抑制投机活动
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 22, 2016, 04:00:49 PM



这是最后的疯狂?
中国房产拐点已至
1638点看 2016年10月20日

(北京20日讯)中国9月再现“恐慌性购房”小高潮,成交量增速止跌回升,以房贷为主的居民中长期贷款也创下历史新高,但先行指标新开工面积却较前值大幅下滑。分析称,这意味着目前地产销售增速的拐点已至,地产投资增速将随之下滑,房贷未来也很有可能回落。


受前期房地产销售火爆影响,中国9月的房贷迅猛,以房贷为主的居民中长期贷款新增人民币5741亿元,创历史新高。分析称,不断利用宽松的、高杠杆的政策,已经造成房地产泡沫,预计未来货币政策将收紧,反过来也会限制居民加杠杆,房贷很难有更大增长。

德国商业银行亚洲高级经济学家周浩指出,房地产出了调控政策后,年内应该也是最后一次看到信贷和社融这么高的增量了,这是(年内)最后的疯狂。

房贷高点已现 未来将回落

9月新增人民币贷款1.22万亿元,环比增加29%,超过预期,值得注意的是,在新增人民币贷款中,有接近四成是个人住房贷款。

方正证券任泽平等称,受前期房地产销售火爆影响,9月的房贷依然迅猛,居民中长期贷款新增5741亿元,创历史新高,未来很有可能回落,房贷高点已现。

而且金融数据创新高,且三季度GDP企稳,多数分析师预计未来货币政策将收紧,反过来也会限制居民加杠杆,房贷很难有更大增长。

周浩称政策的收紧是必然的,新增贷款还有将近一半来自于房贷,另外就是存款没有增加,居民户在拼命的加杠杆,而且社融中委托和信托贷款很大部分可能也是跟开发商拿地有关的夹层贷款,都跟房地产有关;所以政策的收紧也是必然的,而房地产出了调控政策后,年内应该也是最后一次看到信贷和社融这么高的增量了,这是(年内)最后的疯狂。

新闻来源:华尔街见闻


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 23, 2016, 07:58:07 PM



财经  2016年10月23日
中国楼市「牛」继续疯跑?

中国楼市「牛」继续疯跑?

当信和置业(Sino Land)的黄志祥(Robert Ng)大约30年前首次从新加坡来到香港的时候,这位房地產开发商在土地拍卖中积极投標,很多人把他看作一名「闯入者」。

大家都认为,黄志祥高价拿地,大量举债,將来肯定要破產。

然而,隨著市场价格持续上涨,这种激进理念给他带来了巨大收益。如今,黄志祥是香港顶级房地產大亨之一。

现在,中国的房地產开发商引发了一场类似的爭论。


市场波动剧烈

房地產(尤其是住宅地產)市场波动剧烈,到处是「鬼城」传闻,没有多少人愿意住在四线城市,而多数人只有在这类城市才勉强买得起房子。

许多分析师认为,中国槓桿化程度最大的开发商,隨时可能爆发財务危机。

有些开发商的债务负担超过600亿美元,比如中国恆大集团(根据该公司未经审计的半年报)。

此外,中国开发商纷纷涌入香港拓展业务,表明这些开发商对中国房地產前景並非特別看好。

但中国的情况往往是,悲观预言者很可能是错的。房地產作为一个资產类別在中国非常重要——可能过於重要了。

作为经济增长源头以及许多家庭储蓄和財富的源泉,房地產对中国金融体系至为关键(因为70%的银行贷款是房地產抵押物支持的)。

如果房地產不行,中国国內经济很难表现良好。

香港里昂证券(CLSA)的房產研究部门地区主管汪妮柯(译音)表示:「在中国,房地產就是一种替代货幣。」

但是,对於流动性所具有的安抚效果,没有一种资產类別像房地產那么敏感,而中国有大量的流动性。

一如既往,流动性正在推高房地產市场,而且远不止是在一线城市——在许多一线城市,许多夫妇假离婚以便每人能够以更有利条款购买首套房。

64城市新房价格涨

摩根大通(JP Morgan)的数据显示,今年8月,新房价格环比上涨1.3%,为2011年以来的最大涨幅。

中国国家统计局的数据显示,只有4个城市的新房价格下降,而64个城市的新房价格上涨。

摩根大通的朱海斌等经济学家认为,最近的收紧措施力度不够大,並可能抑制供应,从而进一步推升房价。

香港的一位对冲基金经理表示:「流动性好似从天上来。」他指出,最近几年全球货幣供应有40%来自中国。

因此,在日本和美国的央行討论採取「直升机撒钱」方式,上马本地基础设施和其他大项目之际,中国已加快了印钞速度,这是其距离认识「直升机撒钱」这个概念最近的时候。

他补充称,中国8月份的社会融资总量再次达到今年早些时候的高点,而上半年达到1.5兆美元。

抵押贷款迅速增长

抵押贷款迅速增长;中信证券(Citic Securities)旗下里昂证券(CLSA)数据显示,今年上半年,近1/3贷款增量来自房地產领域。

隨著铜和其他大宗商品价格回升,中国以外的地区正在感受这种增长的第二轮影响。

此外,香港房地產业务具有吸引力有许多原因,它並不意味著中国房地產市场將会崩溃。

情况確实如此,儘管存在过度借贷、非热点区域供应过多以及困扰佳兆业(Kaisa)或復星(Fosun)等著名房地產公司的政治风险。

汪妮柯表示,香港具有吸引力的因素包括较低的税率和较大的规模,还有人们对美元资產的胃口(的確如此)。

当然也存在一些风险,其中包括隨著收入增长放缓而出现的购买能力下降。

新加坡最近的一项非正式调查显示,大多数受访者拥有中国一套豪宅的意愿超过持有30年期美国国债。

只有一位投资者质疑业主未来提高租金的能力。

中国並非唯一遭受此类质疑的地区
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 23, 2016, 08:01:17 PM



财经  2016年10月23日
麦格理:中国房產市场不匹配非泡沫

对於经济学家来说,中国房地產市场开始像百慕大三角洲一样神秘:最聪明的预测人士也常常说错。

这是麦格理证券驻香港的中国经济主管胡伟俊的看法,他將围绕中国这一世界第2大经济体楼市泡沫的最新討论称为再三出现的迷思。

8月房价创最大涨幅

相反,中国大城市房价迅猛上涨只不过反映出了潜在需求以及供应短缺,基本面情况与其他地区由信贷推动的房地產盛衰周期迥然不同。官方数据显示,8月房价创下近6年来的最大涨幅。


儘管深圳(过去一年上涨了大约60%)等大城市的上涨最为明显,但许多小城市却无法望其项背。

胡伟俊在近期的一份研究报告中写道,在思考中国房地產行业的时候,需要铭记於心的一个最重要的因素,是过度投资与不匹配的区別,因为这两种观点对投资和政府政策的影响截然不同。

上海等大城市面临人口凈流入,而地块供应却很有限。

胡伟俊称,如果上海每年只卖一块地,那么地价肯定极高--这不是一个泡沫,这是供应短缺。

在过去3年里,中国房地產市场两极分化日益严重。绝大多数大型都市和地区枢纽的房价一飞冲天,而全国平均房价其实並没有那么难以负担,这在一定程度上归功於收入成长。

更好的教育、医疗、社会福利和工作机会,都在吸引中国各地的人口涌入大城市,进而支撑了房地產需求。

胡伟俊称,不低於30%的首付款比例以及政府可用的政策工具也减轻了风险。9月末以来,已有20多个城市推出了高调的调控措施。

改变现有土地制度

虽然麦格理预期2017上半年房地產市场將降温,但在人口凈流入的城市,任何行政措施都不可能改变房价上行的长期趋势。胡伟俊称,终极解决办法是改变现有的土地制度。

胡伟俊也並非茫然不觉风险,他警告称,失控的房价可能会威胁到经济成长。

例如会抑制实体经济中的投资、削减家庭的可支配收入。但他认为这些风险是可控的,对於泡沫的担忧过头了。

胡伟俊称,如果百慕大三角洲是飞机的坟墓,那么中国房地產市场则是经济预测人士的葬身之地
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: zuolun on October 31, 2016, 07:43:45 AM
China’s factory to the world mulls the unthinkable: Price hikes ~ 31 Oct 2016
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-30/china-s-factory-to-the-world-mulls-the-unthinkable-price-hikes

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iEXf70v3cObs/v2/-1x-1.png)

On China dumping US debt and what happens after Trump ~ 25 Oct 2016
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/10/china-dumping-us-debt-happens-trump/
With a population of almost 1.4 billion people, China is the second largest single-country economy in the world with GDP of apprx. $11.4 trillion as of the end of 2015. Japan comes in a distant third at $4.7 trillion followed by Germany at $3.5 trillion

(http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/China-1-1.png)

Most experts agree that China’s national debt is 250% of its GDP (as compared to the US at 106% of GDP). If so, this means that China’s national debt is now north of $28 trillion, making it the largest debtor nation on the planet. Most Americans have no idea that China’s national debt is larger than that of the US. Admittedly, China’s national debt is very difficult to determine since it is a state-controlled economy in which the government owns and/or controls over 50% of all corporations and banks.

(http://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/China-2-1.png)

China's GDP growth hits 6.7% for the third straight quarter. What are the odds? ~ 19 Oct 2016
http://fortune.com/2016/10/19/china-gdp-growth/

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvF5nY2XEAARvf_.jpg)

China to world: We don’t need your factories anymore ~ 18 Oct 2016
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-manufacturers-once-needed-overseas-suppliersnot-any-more-1476801578

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OG-AI446_201610_TAB_20161017155120.jpg)

How a nation of tech copycats transformed into a hub for innovation ~ 29 Dec 2015
https://www.wired.com/2015/12/tech-innovation-in-china

(https://www.wired.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/ff_china-gallery_xiaomi2-1024x576.jpg)
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 31, 2016, 04:31:25 PM



2016-10-31 15:00
前人行顾问:中国经济仍在探底
中国第三季GDP增速维持在6.7%,符合市场预期,其中房地产业对经济贡献就占了近1成。北京清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵认为,中国经济增速虽显露出止跌迹象,但经济回暖言之过早,从长远来看,依靠房地产、基建投资拉动经济的做法不可持续,必须靠创新。
(中国.北京31日讯)中国第三季GDP增速维持在6.7%,符合市场预期,其中房地产业对经济贡献就占了近1成。北京清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵认为,中国经济增速虽显露出止跌迹象,但经济回暖言之过早,从长远来看,依靠房地产、基建投资拉动经济的做法不可持续,必须靠创新。

广告
 

 
腾讯财经报道,在北京清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心(CCWE)主办的“2016寻求突围”的论坛上,曾担任人行货币政策委员会委员的李稻葵表示,今年前3季经济增速皆为6.7%,继续在合理区间,第3季以来部份总体经济指标出现了止跌回稳或小幅回升或持续走好的迹象。

不过,李稻葵表示,部份总体经济指标的好转,并不意味着经济已经触底回稳甚至缓慢回升。这些指标表明经济下滑的态势暂时放缓、但难言经济已经回稳,中国经济仍持续在探底当中。

据中国国家统计局计算,前三季的房地产对经济增长的贡献率在8%左右,房地产对GDP的增长发挥重要作用。李稻葵指出,第3季以来部份经济指标的回稳在很大程度上仍得益于政府稳增长、稳投资政策,而中国经济自发增长动力仍不足,如民间投资和制造业投资增速仍徘徊在3%左右的历史低位。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.10.31
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on November 05, 2016, 08:29:35 AM



China 'overtakes U.S. as the the world's largest economy': IMF says economy is now worth £11 trillion as America falls into second place for the first time since 1872
Figures show the Chinese economy is worth £11trillion, the US £10.8trillion
The IMF estimates China's economy will be worth £16.7trillion in 2019
The US has been the global leader since it overtook Britain in 1872
By HUGO DUNCAN FOR THE DAILY MAIL
PUBLISHED: 23:46 GMT, 8 October 2014 | UPDATED: 06:19 GMT, 9 October 2014
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No longer number one: Barack Obama's America now has the second largest economy in the world
No longer number one: Barack Obama's America now has the second largest economy in the world
China has toppled America to become the biggest economy in the world, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund.
The US has been the global leader since it overtook Britain in 1872, but has now lost its status as top dog.
The latest IMF figures show the Chinese economy is worth £11trillion compared with £10.8trillion for the US.
China – whose wealth has accelerated in recent decades amid rapid industrialisation – is expected to extend its lead, with the IMF estimating its economy will be worth £16.7trillion in 2019.
That would be 20 per cent bigger than the US economy, which is forecast to be worth £13.8trillion by then.
The numbers are based on ‘purchasing power parity’ (PPP) which makes adjustments for the fact that goods are cheaper in countries such as China relative to the US.
Without these adjustments for living costs, the Chinese economy is still smaller than that of the US, at £6.4trillion.
But experts have described the toppling of America after nearly 150 years by China – even on the PPP measure – as a ‘symbolic’ moment for the global economy.
China enjoyed three decades of double-digit growth before the global downturn, as industrialisation and sweeping economic reforms created a new powerhouse in the East.
Growth has slowed in recent years but remains strong by Western standards with the IMF forecasting expansion of 7.4 per cent this year and 7.1 per cent in 2015.
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By contrast, the IMF is predicting growth of just 2.2 per cent in the US this year and 3.1 per cent next year, while the UK is set for expansion of 3.2 per cent and 2.7 per cent.
The Fund yesterday said the US and the UK ‘are approaching economic lift-off’ as they bounce back from the recession. But Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the IMF, warned that ‘potential growth is lower than it was in the early 2000s’ for much of the West, including the US and UK.
Financial powerhouse: In the last decade alone, the skyline of major cities in China, such as Shanghai (pictured), have been completely transformed as the economy grew in leaps and bounds
Financial powerhouse: In the last decade alone, the skyline of major cities in China, such as Shanghai (pictured), have been completely transformed as the economy grew in leaps and bounds
NUMBER ONE FOR 142 YEARS: HOW THE U.S. OVERTOOK BRITAIN AS THE WORLD'S ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE IN 1872
Britain led the world in the industrial revolution of the mid-18th century, but America was hot on its heels.
The US underwent huge industrial expansion after its civil war ended in 1865, fuelled by rapid urbanisation and huge population growth – including the immigration of nearly 30million Europeans.
In 1872, its economy overtook Britain to become the world’s largest, a position it held for the next 142 years.
Productivity, leading brands and innovation, coupled with the success of the US dollar and the fact that 62 per cent of the world’s financial reserves are held in the currency, kept America on top.
Meanwhile, the economies of Britain and other European powers were ravaged by two world wars. Britain borrowed heavily from America during the Second World War and received a further $4.3billion in 1945.
China was the world’s leading trading nation up to the 18th century, until control of its ports and trade were taken over by imperial nations in Europe. Under Communism it remained inward-looking, until 1980 when the government started to allow foreign investment.
Obama assures voters he is still focused on the economy
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He added that China is ‘maintaining high growth’ which will slow in the coming years to a more ‘healthy’ level between 6 per cent and 7 per cent. Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute and an expert on China, recently highlighted the ‘symbolic’ importance of China overtaking the US.
‘China is very big and getting bigger,’ he said. ‘It’s not to be underestimated.’
The news that China is now the largest economy in the world is an embarrassment for Barack Obama and ends America’s 142 years at the top.
Britain had out-produced the US and its European rivals for much of the 19th century, at the height of the industrial revolution and with trade links across the Empire. But the US caught up as a growing population, the expansion of the railways and a focus on industry as well as agriculture boosted its economy.
China's wealth has accelerated in recent decades amid rapid industrialisation. Pictured, a car factory in Beijing
China's wealth has accelerated in recent decades amid rapid industrialisation. Pictured, a car factory in Beijing
China has a population of around 1.3 billion – four times that of the US – but its economy has only just become the biggest
China has a population of around 1.3billion – four times that of the US – but its economy has only just become the biggest
The PPP measure of output makes India the third largest economy, followed by Japan in fourth and Germany in fifth. Russia, Brazil, France, Indonesia and the UK make up the rest of the top 10 in that order.
Many economists believe the PPP measure of an economy is the fairest measure because it takes into account the cost of living in different countries.
For example, although wages are typically far lower in less developed countries than in mature economies, goods and services are often also cheaper, which affects the comparative spending power of individuals.
But critics argue it does not take into account how well off people actually are.
China has a population of around 1.3billion – four times that of the US – but its economy has only just become the biggest.
It means that individuals in America are typically far wealthier than they are in China and other emerging markets benefiting from a huge workforce and rapid growth


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2785766/China-overtakes-U-S-world-s-largest-economy-IMF-says-economy-worth-11-trillion-America-falls-second-place-time-1872.html#ixzz4P5ZkQZbq
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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on November 05, 2016, 08:36:50 AM



Is China Repeating Japan’s Missteps?
Beijing may seem dynamic, but it’s heading down a path we’ve seen before.
 Michael Schuman 
  Bloomberg Businessweek Subscribe Reprints
November 4, 2016 — 6:00 AM MYT
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Photo illustration by 731; China: Alamy; Japan: AP Photo
 
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China and Japan may seem to inhabit alternative economic universes. After more than two decades of stagnation, Japan is a fading global power that can’t seem to revive its fortunes no matter what unorthodox gimmicks it tries. By contrast, China’s ascent to superpower status appears relentless as it gains wealth, technology, and ambition.
Yet these Asian neighbors have a lot in common, and that doesn’t bode well for China’s economic future. The sad case of Japan should serve as a cautionary tale for China’s policymakers. Beijing pursued almost identical economic policies to Tokyo’s to generate its rapid development. Now China’s leaders are repeating the missteps the Japanese made that tanked Japan’s economy and thwarted its revival.
“Just like Japan, we believe China will eventually face a period of much slower growth,” Goldman Sachs investment strategists said in a report earlier this year. Analysts at ratings agency Moody’s, writing in May, warned that China could suffer “a prolonged period of sub-optimal economic growth and persistent deflationary pressures, or possibly even economic stagnation.” James Chanos, founder of fund manager Kynikos Associates, has compared China’s trajectory to Japan’s “on steroids.”
Some may disregard these warnings as the same predictions of doom that China has shrugged off time and again. But recall that 30 years ago, few foresaw the decline of Japan, either. Japan was the East Asian giant poised to overtake the U.S. as the world’s top economy. Driving that ascent was an economic system that many considered superior to laissez-faire American capitalism. By fostering close, cooperative ties among the state, big corporations, and banks, Japan’s policymakers encouraged investment and guided a national industrial strategy. Bureaucrats in Tokyo interfered with markets to a degree unthinkable in the U.S. by protecting nascent industries and directing financing to favored sectors and companies. Backed by such support, Japanese companies burst onto the world stage and pushed their American competitors to the wall.
But even as Japan appeared destined for greatness, its economy was, in reality, starting to rot. Those clubby ties among finance, business, and government misallocated capital and led to wasteful investments. Growth was given a boost by cheap credit in the second half of the 1980s, but that also helped inflate debt levels and stock and property prices. When this “bubble economy” burst in the early 1990s, the financial industry was flattened. Japan has yet to fully recover.
China could be hurtling down a similar path. The methods Beijing employed to generate rapid growth—directing finance, nurturing targeted industries, and promoting exports—are replicas of Japan’s. And since the state in China’s “state capitalism” plays an even larger economic role than Japan’s officious bureaucracy does, the Chinese government interferes with markets to a greater degree.
In China, the chummy government-business-banking triumvirate has led to excess steel mills, cement plants, and apartment blocks on a staggering scale. And Beijing’s policymakers have responded to overbuilding with a massive influx of easy cash to keep the old, sputtering growth engines spinning. The flood of yuan has fueled unstable spikes in asset prices, as it did in Japan. Last year stock markets in China escalated to nosebleed levels, only to deflate in a panicked crash. Now property prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other major cities are rising so quickly that officials have stepped in to control them.
Bubble-prone, debt-obsessed economies are likely to fail, no matter the circumstances
Perhaps more dangerously, China’s loose money has also pumped up a mammoth increase in debt—like Japan’s in the 1980s. Ratings company Fitch shows that total debt relative to national output in Japan jumped almost 80 percentage points, to 275 percent from 1980 to 1989, on the eve of the country’s financial meltdown. The same ratio in China has risen steeply—more than 100 percentage points from 2007 to 2015, reaching 255 percent of its gross domestic product, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
There are economists who argue that China’s mountain of debt isn’t as risky as it appears. Since the debt consists to a great degree of loans made by state banks to state enterprises, the government is likely to step in and support the financial system. And because Chinese debt is almost entirely domestic and backed by massive savings, the financial sector is unlikely to fall prey to outside shocks.
The experience of Japan suggests otherwise. It, too, was a creditor nation with large trade surpluses and ample savings in the early 1990s, but that didn’t prevent a financial crisis. If anything, Japan is proof that a bubble-prone, debt-obsessed economy is susceptible to failure, no matter the circumstances.
Japan can provide China with a model of exactly how not to handle such problems. Rather than allowing indebted, struggling companies to fail, the Japanese kept many afloat with continued credit, debt-for-equity swaps, and other tricks. Such “zombie” companies drag down the economy to this day. To sustain growth, the government turned to artificial stimulus—deficit-financed spending on infrastructure and unprecedented printing of yen by the central bank. That managed to swell Japan’s total debt to almost four times its national output at the end of 2015 while failing to revive the economy. The meddlesome bureaucracy has never reduced regulation nor opened markets enough to spur competition, efficiency, and entrepreneurship.
Officially, China’s president, Xi Jinping, has embarked on a different course. He’s pledged to undertake a sweeping program of pro-market reforms that could shift the economy toward new sources of growth, scrub out excess and waste, and promote private enterprise. In practice, however, China is following in Japan’s footsteps. Despite promises to eliminate zombie companies, Beijing has kept them alive by flooding the economy with credit and state stimulus. In October government planners announced the details of a debt-for-equity swap plan ostensibly aimed at rescuing “good” companies, but more likely perpetuating excess capacity.
Meanwhile, China’s debt burden continues to get heavier, as the expansion of credit outpaces GDP growth. But that credit isn’t stirring the economy. As in Japan, a kind of paralysis is setting in that renders all that cash less effective. There are indications that more and more new credit is being used just to pay off old debts. That means less and less money is going toward investment that could boost the economy.
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China and Japan also share one long-term trend that hampers their economies—aging. Japan’s working-age population decreased 0.4 percent per year from 1990 to 2015. That hurts growth because fewer productive, income-earning workers are supporting a larger army of retirees. As a result of China’s decadeslong policy of limiting many couples to only one child—a restriction Beijing eased only over the past three years—the Chinese population is set to age even more quickly, with the workforce expected to shrink nearly 0.5 percent annually over the next 25 years, according to Goldman Sachs.
Fortunately for China, nothing in economics is inevitable. Xi and his policy team can still swerve off Japan’s course if they more forcefully implement the reforms they’ve promised. Until then, the risks that China will become like Japan will only mount. Beijing and Tokyo have suffered from the same fatal flaw: a deep-seated unwillingness to alter a growth model that no longer delivers results.
 
Schuman is a Beijing-based journalist and author of Confucius: And the World He Created
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on November 06, 2016, 01:29:04 PM



热爆军火市场
中国无人机一战定江山
192点看 2016年11月6日

彩虹系列、翼龙系列等中国国产无人机,是本届珠海航展上最受买家欢迎的军火。

(珠海6日讯)中国无人战机近年在世界各战区大出风头,据称已有9个国家装备,而其中,伊拉克用中国无人机对抗诸如“回教国”的恐怖势力,成功用其歼灭恐怖组织头目,名噪一时。


知名军事专家黄东指出,中国军用无人机不但航程远,且载弹量大,在世界亦数一数二。在本届珠海航展上,无人机是最受买家欢迎的军火。

“无人机被广泛用于侦察、监视、反恐、定点袭击等,军事用途非常之广。此外中国目前正在开发隐形无人机,一旦完成将更胜外国一筹。”

彩虹5号最大卖点

彩虹5号无人机是航展最大卖点之一,该机集侦察打击于一身,中国声称目前“世界最强”。

这款无人机能飞7000米以上高空,持续航行最高3天;可载16枚不同类型导弹,比美国无人机最多能载4弹头高3倍。

不过此机仍未有实战经验;而其前身彩虹一号,刚于数天前伊拉克部队在摩苏尔市时参战激退“回教国”,并协助部队两年多来首次踏入该城。

此外,无论彩虹系列或是国产另一个“翼龙”系列的无人机,均与美军的“掠夺者”无人机外形非常相似,惹抄袭嫌疑云。


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on November 27, 2016, 06:35:26 PM



专家:中国人口2028年到顶
料达14.5亿
383点看 2016年11月27日
翟振武预测,中国人口高峰或于2028年出现,总数达到14.5亿。(资料图片)
翟振武预测,中国人口高峰或于2028年出现,总数达到14.5亿。(资料图片)

(北京27日讯)由中国人口与发展研究中心举办的“人口与发展高级资讯会”昨日在北京召开,中国人民大学社会与人口学院院长翟振武在会上预测,由于全面二孩政策的实施,中国人口高峰或将于2028年出现,总数达到14.5亿,比维持原来较严格的生育政策下的高峰人口多出3500万人。


翟振武表示,若维持原来较严格的生育政策不变,总人口规模将在2025年时就到达高峰,达14.15亿。但因实施全面二孩政策,将使中国总人口规模的高峰延后3年左右,于2028年前后出现,总数达到14.5亿。

对于该说法与一年前有报道指“人口峰值推迟两年”的预测稍有变化,翟振武则说:“这些数据是根据现在全面二孩政策实施后生育情况的变化,以及关于二孩生育量的测算出来,人口预测不是会计,每年还是有一定的变化,大概的趋势是在2028年达到峰值。”

八成婴幼儿由祖辈看护

另外,国家卫计委家庭司司长王海东在会上表示,卫计委今年委托中国人口与发展研究中心展开的专题调研结果显示,有近三分一的全职母亲因孩子无人照料而被迫中断就业;超过四分三的全职母亲表示若有人帮忙带孩子,将会重新就业。

“有近80%的婴幼儿都是由祖辈参与日间看护,而被调查对象更希望将孩子送往专业的托育机构,其中家长对2至3岁幼儿托育的需求最为强烈。”

王海东坦言,目前婴幼儿在各类托育机构的入托率比较低,与欧洲、亚洲许多已开发国家相比,差距非常明显。

人口与发展高级资讯会在北京举行。(互联网图片)
人口与发展高级资讯会在北京举行。(互联网图片)


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on December 02, 2016, 09:04:06 PM



龙门阵  2016年12月02日 | 作者:胡禄铭 | 专栏:安邦观点
中国经济活力的三指標

现在一般人相信,国內生长总值(GDP)增长已不能反映中国经济的全貌,更不能代表中国经济的活力,那么,我们看中国经济,应该看什么指標呢?根据安邦智库(Anbound)的见解,首先,要看资產回报率。根据中国国家统计局公佈的数字估算,今天中国的总资產可能在600到800万亿人民幣之间(389-512万亿令吉)。

以资產增量而论,2012年到2013年,一年资產增长就是78万亿元(51万亿令吉),但同时债务增长也將近50万亿元(32万亿令吉)。这意味,资產增长是靠债务来支持的,货幣增长仅仅是债务的反映,只要一贷款就產生债务、创造债务。现在中国的社会融资规模存量已到了150多万亿(97多万亿令吉),基本规则是乘以2,所有经济实体的债务总额至少有300万亿(194万亿令吉)。这些基本数字可解释,为何中国的经济回报率不断下降。若总是追求量的增长,增长得越多,经济「体重」就越大,资產回报的能力就越低,这也是当前中国经济的核心问题。

如果从资產回报率来衡量,可以看到很多投资是低效的。最典型的是中国的房地產扩张,按中国国际金融公司前总裁朱云来的估算,中国在建的住宅就有5、60亿平方公尺,加上投资的房子也有60亿平方公尺,总数大约有120亿平方公尺,按人均30平方公尺可以住4亿人。因此,房地產不能再搞扩张了。如果这个行业仍在吸纳大量的投资,那无疑是在製造新的结构问题。

民企与外商的重要


其次,衡量中国经济要看民企投资和外商投资。由于民企和外商投资与国企投资的动机不同,债务责任不同,因此衡量经济形势,一个重要指標就是民企和外商愿不愿意投资。今年前三季度民间投资增速是2.5%,比上半年放缓0.3%,民间投资与整体投资增速(8.5%)的差距在扩大,与国有及国有控股企业投资增速21.1%更是天壤之別;从前三季度投资到位资金来看,外商投资到位资金同比负增长21%!

这反映市场对中国经济的预期不乐观。第三,要看中国的消费增长。从2016年的数据来看,中国的消费增速平缓。2016年1-9月份,社会消费品零售总额同比增长10.4%,低于2015年的同期水平。不过,消费对经济增长的贡献大幅提升,与投资增速放缓带来的贡献率降低有关係,即有此起彼伏的相对变化的原因。

影响消费持续增长的一个重要因素是居民收入增长情况。中国的消费升级势头已拉开大幕,但前提是居民收入须升级,收入增加和消费环境改善后,就不用担心消费起不来。就此而言,今年前三季度居民收入实际增长6.3%(低于GDP增速6.7%),实在算不上是乐观的数字。

因此,安邦智库就认为,衡量「新常態」下的中国经济,不能只是看规模增长的总量指標,更应该看重体现效率和结构的其他指標——资產回报率、民间与外商投资增长、消费增长与居民的收入增长,这应该是更能体现中国经济活力的关键指標。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on December 04, 2016, 08:54:39 PM



名家  2016年12月04日 | 作者:孙和声 | 专栏:狂生噪语
务实应变的现阶段中国

中国研究,是当代政治经济的一门显学。之所以,在于中国这30年来崛起得很快,如在2010年,按市场匯率计算,中国的国內生產总值(GDP)达6兆美元(24.6兆令吉),高于日本的5.4兆(22.14兆令吉),位居世界第二。此外,也有人认为,若按购买力平价(PPP)计算,中国的GDP在2014年已超过美国,位居世界第一。

当然,由于中国人口庞大,若从人均收入计算,则远低于美日,可却也远高于印度。如在1980年,中国的GDP为0.19兆美元(0.779兆令吉),印度为0.18兆(0.738兆令吉),人均收入,中国是193美元(791令吉),印度是267美元(1094令吉)比中国还高,可进入2014年,中国的GDP与人均收入已升至10兆美元(41兆令吉)与7572美元(3万1045令吉)(世界排名第二与第80名),印度则是2兆(8.2兆令吉)与1608美元(6592令吉)(排名第9与145名)。

削弱西式民主魅力

从中印这2个可比性高的国家来看,中国经济的表现確实不同凡响,也难怪各类威胁论层出不穷。从客观的硬实力角度看的確也是中国较印度,更能使西方產生挑战感觉。何以威权的中国,较自由民主的印度,经济表现更令人侧目,是个耐人深思的课题,也削弱了西式民主的魅力。


许多喜欢谈自由、民主、人权的各方人士;爱说,印度在自由、民主、人权方面比中国进步,更值得令人尊重;可从普罗大眾的角度,提高生活水平才是实利实惠的硬道理。进而言之,对赤贫、文盲、寿命较短、营养与医疗不足的贫苦大眾言,所谓自由、民主,未免太过抽象。没有基本的经济自由为基础条件,空谈人权,恐怕也只能是不食人间烟火的高调,是种阿Q式的精神胜利。

实事求是地看,按照联合国的《2015年千年发展目標报告》,在1990年,中国的极端贫穷率(赤贫)是61%,可到了2002年,剧降至30%,到了2014年,更降到4.2%。从生存权与发展权的角度看,这才是实利实惠的基本人权的改善。对普罗大眾言,这才是更根本的人权进步。对普罗大眾,而非少数的政治精英或知识精英言,提高生產力,改善生活水平,进而提高国家综合实力与民族自豪感,才是更根本的基本人权。能使7亿人脱贫,才是实利实惠的政绩,也是实现更高层次自由的根本基础。

政治自由並非绝对

至于应实现什么更高层次的自由,则颇有爭议,一种流行的理论认为,经济自由迟早会带来政治自由,进而冲击到中共的一党专制;只是,凡事必有例外,新加坡的实例显示,政治自由並非绝对的,而是相对的。易言之,对普罗大眾(而非少数精英),国泰民安、丰衣足食、安居乐业、治安良好、政府廉洁、社会政治稳定的求安求稳心理,也可能比激进的政治更重要。实则,人心思变,政治会激进化的原因,通常也是因为政府腐败无能,民不聊生,生活不下去,才会出现的非常態。

据此,有论者认为,若中国经济长期大幅放慢,进而削弱了中共的政绩正当性,中国便可能生变。是否如此,就只能让时间来证明。只是,也有不少论者认为,中共是个善于调整应变的世界最大党(党员高达9000万)。特別是自苏联解体与东欧变天后,中共能积极于主动应变,进而转型为一种具有韧性的威权体制(ResilientAuthoritarianRegime)。或许也可称之为开明型威权,而非一成不变,死守教条的死板全能主义政权。开明与威权並存可说是其韧性之源。

实则,中国近30年来能大幅提高生產力,提高人民的生活水平与国家的综合实力,主因便在于它能积极主动,適合中国当前国情地搞各类改革,进而保住了一种动態的稳定。中共能与新加坡的人民行动党一样保持其正当性,主因就在于它的实用理性主义。实则,实用理性,本就是中国的文化传统之一;只是,在过去百年来,这个实用才被狂热与教条主义所取代,如1950-60年代的意识形態狂热。

中共的实用理性,最清楚地见之于邓小平的白猫黑猫,能抓老鼠便是好猫的务实论与摸著石头过河的试验论。中国能成功地从一个意识形態教条主义国,转型为一个实用理性国,从而取得不凡的成就,可从多方面来探討。有人便从意识形態双轨制的角度来分析这个意识形態转型与改革的进程,这个转型,大大提高了中共的执政能力。

缓和保守势力反弹

所谓意识形態双轨制是说,中国政治的核心力量,中共能在1978年改革开放中避免分裂,保住意识形態的整合与党內凝聚力,是因为中共能隨机应变地出台2套互补的意识形態。一个是针对党內保守势力而出台的正式意识形態,如赵紫阳的中国尚处于社会主义初级阶段,江泽民时代的三个代表论,以扩大党的代表性与全民性,及胡锦涛时代提出的科学发展观。

当然,邓小平提出的资本主义国家也有计划经济,社会主义国家也有市场经济,是这些理论的基础。这个说法,很大程度上缓和了保守势力的反弹。毕竟,尽管搞资本主义式的改革开放,可也还是计划经济或国有经济为主,市场经济为辅。

易言之,由于是国家主导的市场经济,主要企业与所有权也掌握在国家手中,如银行便是国有国营,融资也偏向国有国营企业。这就稳住了老一派的向心力。另外,中共则另有一套说给大眾听的非正式的意识形態,如积极面的利用民族主义与民族復兴口號,与消极面的贬低西式民主,以合理化中共治理的正当性。

应该说,西式民主,特別是美式民主,確也有其弊端与低素质的一面,如之前的总统选举便如一场闹剧。与此同时,中共也在相当程度上搞政改,如领导人的年龄、转任、轮任型集体领导的权力交班制,任人唯贤,中央领导差额选举等
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on December 11, 2016, 05:19:14 PM



2016-12-11 10:49
李冉·中国为何能逆袭?
受全球原油供应过剩导致油价持续下滑等原因影响,世界经济普遍低迷。虽难免受到影响,中国还是在这种趋势中渐渐逆流而上,不断崛起。但是马来西亚却不那么幸运,屋漏偏逢连夜雨,经济下滑十分严重。究竟是什么原因让中国与马来西亚朝着不同的方向发展?
受全球原油供应过剩导致油价持续下滑等原因影响,世界经济普遍低迷。虽难免受到影响,中国还是在这种趋势中渐渐逆流而上,不断崛起。但是马来西亚却不那么幸运,屋漏偏逢连夜雨,经济下滑十分严重。究竟是什么原因让中国与马来西亚朝着不同的方向发展?

广告

先来谈谈中国的政治环境。中国是一党专政,即政权由共产党所把握。

无论再怎么呼吁习近平放弃一党制,起码从目前来看,以及从过去的几十年来看,中国社会稳定,人民在这种环境下各司其职,一条道走到黑,没有二心。

同时自上而下的经济政策也基本大方向不变,整体经济也就朝着好的方向发展。

作为穆斯林国家,虽说马来西亚比起中东部份国家要稳定,没有战争,但是马来西亚政局一向不那么稳。去年发生的1MDB风波可谓是马来西亚经历的前所未遇的政治危机,不止反对党跟着闹腾起来,人民大众也讨伐、质疑。政局动荡,民心便不稳,经济也受到冲击(因受到国际投资者的质疑)。

中国与马来西亚的债务都占GDP比重高,都是依靠举债来带动消费和投资的经济体。美联储加息的举动着实让两国遭殃。但是中国却挺了过来,中国央行为了刺激增长,避免经济进一步放缓,连续降息,并多次下调银行的准备金比率。而脆弱的马来西亚的汇率变化比较剧烈,马币对美元和新元持续走低,没有从美联储加息的冲击中逃出来。

另外,谁都知道中国在强势崛起,今天我倒是不想讲什么中国模式、中国创新,我想要说说中国人。因为中国的强大跟中国人的付出是密不可分的。

广告

中国人过去穷怕了,努力是一代传一代的传统精神,人民追求富裕生活是努力的动力。再加上中国竞争压力大,每个人不得不努力,才能不被生活所抛弃。这些努力的动力也可以归于中国人对前途的不确定和缺乏一种安全感。不论出发点是什么,大部份中国人尤其是年轻一代坚韧不拔,经常拚死拚活地工作,朝九晚五变成朝五晚九,甚至跟家人的相处时间也极少。中国人这样的牺牲很难不换来GDP的增长。

而马来西亚自然资源丰富,几乎可以坐享优渥条件。夸张一点说,马来西亚人民不干活也有的吃,大部份人也非常懂得满足,赚的钱够花就可以了。虽说这也是一种很惬意的生活方式,但作为小国,人口又极少,人民的这种知足常乐,却换不来国家的快速发展。邻国新加坡的人民,就显得更努力一些。

中国人尤其重视教育,而且世界闻名。不管是什么农民还是路边摊小贩,谁都知道要让孩子读书上大学。虽然在其他方面勤俭节约,即使没有钱砸锅卖铁也要供家中孩子读书。古有孟母三迁,为的是给孩子找一个好的成长环境,现有学租族随孩子的就学而迁居。

除了基本课程,中国的家长还拼了命的送孩子学奥数、学音乐、学舞蹈、学书法等等,恨不得让孩子成为三头六臂,成龙成凤。当然马来西亚家庭也重视教育,但比起中国式的投入可谓是有一定的差距。

广告

当然,我却不敢苟同中国人的一些努力方式,也使得中国在发展的同时,经常出现一些无效的运作,浪费许多资源。比如家长为了让孩子在教室中坐在第一排,会做出贿赂老师的事情,如果每个家长都这样做,孩子就会又从第一排被调整到最后一排,这便是非常愚昧的无用功。

中国大部份城市和地区都面临着严重的雾霾的困扰,甚至飞行航班都受到极大的影响。特别是在重工业区,雾霾更加严重。为什么会如此?就是因为中国国家体制下,部份领导人为了创造GDP而破坏环境,为了政绩形象而开山毁河。虽说GDP增长了,这种“污染式”发展经济的模式得不偿失,又要损失更多的GDP去治理雾霾,何必呢?

而中国人也以假冒伪劣、坑蒙拐骗而闻名于世界,中国骗子的手段简直是炉火纯青,不得不让外国人惊叹,在这种方面“努力”的中国人却也是缺少见识和远见,使得中国人和中国产品的被信任感极低,简直也是得不偿失的又一实例。

中国人若能体会到什么是踏实的努力,便会更加强大。

文章来源:
星洲日报/冉冉而谈·作者:李冉·马大中文研究所研究员·2016.12.11
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on December 25, 2016, 02:31:19 PM



2016-12-25 09:34
传习近平弃6.5%成长目标
知情人士称,中国国家主席习近平并不坚持经济增速一定要达到6.5%的目标,因担心负债攀升及特朗普当选美国总统后国际环境存在不确定性。
(中国.北京24日讯)知情人士称,中国国家主席习近平并不坚持经济增速一定要达到6.5%的目标,因担心负债攀升及特朗普当选美国总统后国际环境存在不确定性。

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不愿披露身份的该位知情人士称,习近平在上周召开的中共中央财经领导小组会议上说,若会造成太多风险,中国就没有必要去达成这一目标。这位人士还披露,出席此次会议的领导人达成共识,只要就业维持稳定,中国这个规模达到11兆美元的经济体可以在增速放缓之下保持稳定。

经济学家和分析师们也预计中国经济增速在2016年达到6.7%后会在今后数年持续减速。

增速放缓的同时,中国正在推动经济从出口导向型向服务及内需推动转型。2015年,服务业对该国经济增速的贡献在历史上首次达到一半以上。

去年,中国领导层设定了到2020年前的5年间将每年经济增速维持在至6.5%的目标。一些经济学家认为,这一目标会鼓励当局不惜承担可能危及金融稳定的风险。国际货币基金组织(IMF)也建议中国降低目标。

态度的转变暗示,高层可能认为系统性风险已经大到了需要重新评估关键目标的地步,当局进一步加大财政和货币政策刺激的意愿可能也会降低。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2016.12.25
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on January 22, 2017, 01:10:58 PM



今天!中国郑重宣布:向世界作出一重要承诺
2017-01-21 10891 2

摘要阿里巴巴董事局主席马云、万达董事长王健林、华为董事长孙亚芳、百度总裁张亚勤、创新工场董事长李开复等全部到场!振奋的是,中国国家主席习近平首次出席....
  特朗普彻底傻眼了!
  
   今天,习主席带着阿里、华为、百度、万达,向全世界再次重申中国立场,怒斥孤立主义!
   \  
   习主席向全世界再次重申中国立场,怒斥孤立主义!
  
   震撼,中国最强代表团
  
   3000位各国商界代表,超70个国家的领导人和代表汇聚一堂,论剑世界达沃斯经济论坛。今年,中国派出了史无前例的最强代表团!
   \  
   今年,中国派出了史无前例的最强代表团!
  
   阿里巴巴董事局主席马云、万达董事长王健林、华为董事长孙亚芳、百度总裁张亚勤、创新工场董事长李开复等全部到场!振奋的是,中国国家主席习近平首次出席!
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: CurryLee on January 22, 2017, 02:09:23 PM
like tis means trade war started ady. the general is calling his soldiers. cyberwar.....cham..... :sweat: :sweat:
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ikan besar on January 22, 2017, 02:27:08 PM
like tis means trade war started ady. the general is calling his soldiers. cyberwar.....cham..... :sweat: :sweat:


Poo nia bor not China lah is Tong Sang
How long u been living here
Like this pun tak tahu, poo nia bor
U bising lagi hantar lu pegi Tong Sang
Nia putt ahhhhhh
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: CurryLee on January 22, 2017, 02:38:36 PM
tong sang ah suk...usa dowan buy china thing ady....cham...how ah? :sweat:
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: CurryLee on January 22, 2017, 03:18:27 PM
ikan cny phoon choi no pau yue....how ah? :'(

u belanja me go sangkelila eat lar...ok? :P
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: ikan besar on January 22, 2017, 08:29:14 PM
ikan cny phoon choi no pau yue....how ah? :'(

u belanja me go sangkelila eat lar...ok? :P
Poo nia bor, don't know what sport car to buy
Curry what sport car is cheap and powerful
AE86 or Nissan fair lady
Aiyoh very pening
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: CurryLee on January 22, 2017, 08:34:33 PM
Cheap and powerful ah? Lambugini lar....sure!  :clap: :clap:

Poo nia bor, don't know what sport car to buy
Curry what sport car is cheap and powerful
AE86 or Nissan fair lady
Aiyoh very pening

Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on January 26, 2017, 05:08:47 PM



China's shadow banking crusade risks bond market crash
By Reuters / Reuters   | January 26, 2017 : 3:27 PM MYT   
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SHANGHAI (Jan 26): China's campaign to cut high debt levels in its economy is aiming this year to shrink the US$3 trillion shadow banking sector, which could drain a critical source of income for the country's banks and of funding for its fragile bond market.

Shadow banking, a term for financial agents that perform bank-like activity, but are not regulated as banks, has boomed in China, the world's second-largest economy, as a way of circumventing government's tight controls on lending.

It has been a key driver of the breakneck growth in debt in the economy, which UBS says rose to 277% of GDP from 254% in 2016, and is now a target as Beijing tries to reduce that figure, before it destabilises the economy.

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But with banks' shadow banking business accounting for about a fifth of total outstanding loans, analysts fear that the unintended consequences of government efforts could trigger the fate it seeks to avoid.

"We see a policy-induced drastic deleveraging in shadow banking as a policy miscalculation that could trigger unexpected tail risks for the banking sector," said Liao Qiang, credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings.

Investors' concerns stem from new rules this month that put lenders' wealth management products (WMPs), the biggest component of shadow banking, under the scrutiny of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) for the first time and into its calculations on prudence, capital adequacy and loan growth guidelines.

According to the latest official data, WMPs jumped 42% year-on-year to 26 trillion yuan (US$3.8 trillion) at the end of June, doubling in just two years.

WMPs are typically kept off banks' balance sheets, making it difficult for regulators to assess the stability of a banking sector reliant upon them for growth.

And just as in the global financial crisis of 2008, banks' interconnectedness amplifies the risks. Banks are increasingly buying into each other's WMPs, such that interbank WMPs hit 4 trillion yuan in June, a doubling from two years ago.

Banking regulators are also seeking new rules that will require lenders to set aside adequate capital to absorb potential losses from WMPs.

The PBOC and China Banking Regulatory Commission have yet to respond to requests for comment.

Vicious cycle

Banks lure investors to WMPs with the promise of much higher returns than on bank deposits, then channel the cash into high-yielding bonds or other forms of disguised lending to sectors such as property on which there are official lending limits.

The spectre of tighter monetary policy has already halted a three-year long rally in China bonds, and investors worry that the new WMP regulations could tip the bond market into crisis.

"Financial institutions, via WMPs, have invested a lot of money into credit products," said Gu Weiyong, chief investment officer at Ucom Investment Co, a bond-focused fund house in Shanghai, and he said they don't necessarily have sufficient capital to support those investments.

"It's very possible that another scandal could erupt, maybe in the first half," he said.

It is barely a month since Beijing tightened the rules on WMPs, as part of a broader policy thrust at preventing price bubbles and reducing industrial overcapacity.

Bond prices have since fallen, sales of WMPs have slowed and money market mutual funds, also used by WMPs, are losing cash.

At the end of June, 41% of China's 26 trillion yuan of WMPs was in bonds, with 16% in money market instruments.

Data from consultancy CNBenefit showed that Chinese banks sold 24,460 WMPs last quarter, compared with 25,980 the previous quarter, while money market funds shrank to 3.9 trillion yuan at end-November, the lowest in a year, from 4.2 trillion yuan in October, according to data from the Asset Management Association of China.

In addition, a year-end bond market rout wiped out all the gains this year in bond mutual funds, resulting in a combined loss of 21.6 billion yuan, according to the official Xinhua agency, raising the spectre of losses in bond-linked WMPs.

"The big issue for financial stability in China is a combination of very high asset prices and also extremely high leverage," said David Cui, analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"The problem of this combination is that any drop in asset prices can quickly develop into a vicious selling circle," Cui said, with falling bond prices leading to WMP losses, then to lower WMP sales, and back to more pressure on bonds.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on February 03, 2017, 02:12:44 PM



China raises short-term interest rates in fresh tightening signal
TheEdgeFri, Feb 03, 2017

SHANGHAI (Feb 3): China's central bank surprised financial markets on Friday by raising short-term interest rates on the first day back from a long holiday, in a further sign of a tightening policy bias as the economy shows signs of steadying.

While the increases were modest, they reinforced views that Chinese authorities are intent on both containing capital outflows and reining in risks to the financial system created by years of debt-fueled stimulus.

Higher interest rates could prod debt-laden firms into deleveraging, though at the risk of stunting growth.

"It appears to be an intent to control a real estate bubble. It could also be aimed at arresting the yuan's depreciation, although it is on the reverse repo they touched upon and the impact remains to be seen," said Naoto Saito, chief economic researcher at the Daiwa Institute of Research In Tokyo.

"All in all, it comes across as a move to tweak interest rate levels to accompany a broader monetary policy shift."

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) raised the interest rate on open market operation reverse repurchase agreements (repos) by 10 basis points, effective on Feb 3.

Two banking sources told Reuters it also raised the lending rates on its standing lending facility (SLF) short-term loans.

Analysts said the tightening of primarily money market rates suggested the PBOC wanted to retain policy flexibility as it balances the need to keep the economy from slowing again.

In late January, the PBOC raised rates on its medium-term loan facility (MLF) for the first time since it debuted the liquidity tool in 2014. It was the first time it has raised one of its policy interest rates since July 2011.

Analysts expect any further steps to be gradual as policymakers weigh their impact on economic growth, and believe the PBOC will be in no hurry to raise the policy lending rate for now. The one-year policy lending rate was last cut in October 2015 to 4.35%.

"China's economic recovery is still shaky, while the global economic situation is unstable, so raising open market rates is more appropriate than raising benchmark rates," said Li Huiyong, chief economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities.

"It's a flexible tool, which can be easily reversed if China's economy shows signs weakness again."

The world's second-largest economy grew 6.7% last year — roughly in the middle of the government's target range.

But heavy policy stimulus — evident in record lending from mostly state-owned banks and increased government spending — has fuelled worries among top leaders about the risks of high debt levels and an overheating housing market that could threaten financial stability if not addressed.

China's debt to GDP ratio rose to 277% at the end of 2016 from 254% the previous year, with an increasing share of new credit being used to pay debt servicing costs, UBS analysts said in a note.

SUFFICIENT LIQUIDITY

The PBOC raised the seven-day open market operations rate to 2.35% from 2.25%.

Banking sources said the overnight rate for the SLF loan was raised to 3.1% from 2.75%, with rates on other SLF loans increased more modestly. The SLF rate acts as a de facto ceiling for interbank lending, analysts said.

Even as it raised borrowing costs, China's central bank moved to reassure markets about liquidity by injecting funds through the 7-day, 14-day and 28-day repos on Friday.

The PBOC drained a net 250 billion yuan last week, before Chinese markets closed for the long Lunar New Year break.

"It's not a good kick off of the Lunar New Year. It is a clear sign that the central bank has switched to tighten its monetary policy," said a trader at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.

China's economy has seen a broad-based pickup in recent months, with fourth-quarter GDP beating expectations due largely to a strong housing market and higher government spending on infrastructure projects.

At the same time, however, capital flight from the tightly managed economy has been strong, fueled by expectations that the yuan currency will depreciate further after sliding to more than eight-year lows against the dollar.

Bearish views on the yuan have persisted despite a series of tightening measures in recent months aimed at making it more difficult for Chinese individuals and corporations to send money abroad.

China's currency reserves fell by a tenth last year and, at US$3.011 trillion, are close to falling below psychologically significant levels.

The yuan down 7% last year, its biggest annual loss against the dollar since 1994. China's outbound investment jumped 44% last year to US$170.1 billion, according to the Commerce Ministry.

"The signal is very clear," said Zhou Hao, senior Asian emerging market economist at Commerzbank in Singapore.

Hao said this time the tightening was more targeted compared with China's previous tightening cycle that ended in 2013.

"Inflation at that time was rising very rapidly and at this time inflation is not really an issue. Secondly the yuan was under pressure to appreciate at that time."

"Right now it's totally different. If you have capital outflows, that's already tightening. And then you tighten further, which is a double-whammy.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on February 06, 2017, 06:42:35 AM



名家  2017年02月05日 | 作者:朱冠华 | 专栏:喝茶论势
中国开国,美国锁国?

12
过去锁国的中国,现在其国家主席习近平,在瑞士达沃斯召开的世界经济论坛年会上,展现捍卫自由贸易的姿態,並邀请全球各国共享中国推广的「一带一路」;反之,过去对于自由贸易推广不遗余力的美国,在国內经济低迷下,民粹主义、反全球化和贸易保护主义逐渐抬头。

回顾歷史,美国本不是一个开放的国家。它早期实行的是贸易保护和自我孤立的「门罗主义」,开放是第一次世界大战后才出现。不过1929年爆发大萧条后又走回贸易锁国,二战后才再度开放至今。

而中国在歷史上也从来不是一个锁国的国家,锁国政策是从明朝朱元璋时期的禁海令开始的。虽然其子朱棣打造出强大的远航船队,但是郑和下西洋的事业並没带来足够的经济效益,最后还是从歷史舞台退下。

清朝基本上延续明制。乾隆时期的1792年,英国政府任命马戛尔尼为正使,以贺乾隆皇帝八十大寿为名出使中国。对于做惯几千年天朝大国的中国来说,只是视英国使节来朝贡。当马戛尔尼代表英国政府向乾隆提出七个要求,希望中国给予英国通商和传教。乾隆才知道对方此行並非专为贺寿,说:「天朝物產丰盈,无所不有,原不藉外夷货物以通有无」为由,拒绝通商。


受战爭洗礼的中国

虽然英国使节用心选购了600箱代表英国生產文明的天文、地理仪器、图书、毯毡、军用品、车辆、船式等物。但是清廷工匠、官员认为天球、地球之类的与清宫所陈列者並无差別,装饰反而不如,玻璃掛灯也与圆明园中者无异。而需要专人装配的钟錶,其方法「並无奇巧」,和北京城內钟錶匠的作法相同。乾隆在看到礼物之后,觉得英使不过是夸大其词,因为「所称奇异之物,只觉视等平常耳」。

虽然马戛尔尼来华时,中欧技术生產力並无明显差距,但1800年后,英国的工业革命出现,西方技术生產力迅速猛增,短短40年就拋离中国。最后在1839年-1842年的鸦片战爭中,用炮舰打开中国的锁国门户。

只是满清王朝过于顢頇,不能顺应国际大势更改国政,往往是被打一下,才开放一点。在1860年,遭受英法联军火烧圆明园后,才不得不发动自强的「洋务运动」。

不过,在腐败昏瞶的满清政权下,「洋务运动」无法放开手开展,就算贵为总理的洋务派领袖李鸿章,也都是在保守派掣肘下事倍功半。保守派和清流的努力终于修成恶果,1894年的「甲午战爭」中,中国竟然败给自己过去看不起的蕞薾小国日本,赔银二万万三千两白银。「甲午战爭」,宣告了「洋务运动」的失败,曝露中国外强中干真相,也打断中国现代化进程,隨后引发列强竞相爭夺逼迫中国签订一个个不平等条约,抢夺中国大饼,並险些让中国在八国联军侵略下险遭瓜分。

顢頇的满清虽然在1911年的武昌起义后被推翻,但是中国仍处于5000年歷史所未有的大变局中。在旧体制崩溃,新体制未生的时候,袁世凯、张勋復辟,军阀割据如春秋战国时代,北洋和南京政权对峙如南北朝,北方有苏联和东方日本的威胁。

亡国灭种的危机在1931年918事变发展到顶点,第二次中日战爭(1931-1945年)爆发,中国付出死伤2千万至3千万人的代价,贏得百年来第一次对外战爭的胜利,这个胜利也是中国復兴契机。之后再经过包括国共內战等一连串战爭洗礼,一个拥有现代国家思维的新中国在1949年诞生。

新中国的领导人毛泽东,虽然想维持中美良好关係。但是在冷战反共思维下,美国对中国的善意不予回应。中国又要发展不同于欧美的政经模式,所以被排除欧美建立的国际体系外而「被锁国」。而中国在尝试发展中误入歧途,受到大跃进和文革折腾。直到邓小平復出,在1978年改革开放,一个东方古国才再度展现生机。

中国的改革开放让自己逐步融入欧美主宰的国际经济潮流之中。因为中国採取摸著石头过河的稳健开放方式,所以没有犯上俄罗斯因为盲目採取「新自由主义」的全面开放,造成国家资源被少数利益集团以超低成本掠夺,人民反而变得更穷困的错误。

为了获得更强的国际竞爭力,中国没有盲目一味给予產业保护,经常以適当开放「倒逼產业改革」,作为推进自家產业为生存故而不得不国际化,提升自己竞爭力。

在融入国际经济的同时,也让中国和西方国家建立紧密的经济关係,这使得就算和西方国家產生爭执时,西方国家也不敢像对俄罗斯一样,轻率对中国施行经济制裁,以免两败俱伤。

搞不起锁国政策

经过30多年的努力,中国取得震惊世界的成就,成为仅次美国的第二大经济体。从屈从追隨西方制定的国际规则到可以自己制定规则。

当美国因为贸易保护主义抬头,其遏制中国的「重返亚洲」包含的抑中经济战略《跨太平洋伙伴协议》(TPP)胎死腹中。世界对经贸发展逐渐转入中国主导的区域经济整合计划的《区域全面经济伙伴协定》(RCEP),以及设立亚投行(AIIB),打通全球经贸任督二脉的「一带一路」之21世纪的丝绸之路。

现在的中国,已经不是过去自以为是「天朝物產丰盈,无所不有」的国家了。它清楚认识自己並不是地大物博的国家,因为中国只佔全球自然资源的7%,但是人口却佔全球的20%。真正地大物博的是美国,所以美国立国以来可以有本钱搞锁国的「门罗主义」,中国却搞不起。所以中国必须和世界不断深化经贸合作。

自2008年金融危机后,西方国家贸易保护主义势力渐兴,中国继续推行全球化贸易更显得重要。中国预计未来5年將进口8兆美元(35.6兆令吉)的商品和服务,对外投资7500亿美元(3兆3375亿令吉),所以没有一个国家敢铁下心和中国搞经济隔离,除了要走台独又不敢宣佈独立,只会自我萎缩的台湾绿色政权例外。

如果美国在特朗普主政下,真走向贸易保护主义,中国会顺势填补美国离开后的真空区域,未来国际舞台就是中国的天下
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on February 26, 2017, 07:40:01 AM



东方文荟  2017年02月25日 | 作者:林金树 | 专栏:观念平台
金正恩协助美国围堵中国

朝鲜最高领袖金正恩同父异母哥哥金正男在吉隆坡遇害,一些媒体报导中,指幕后主使人几乎肯定是金正恩本人。因为他要把可能对其地位造成任何威胁的潜在政治对手进行「人身消灭」,才能感觉到政权稳固。

这 场高明的谋杀案,既反映出朝鲜特务机构的无孔不入和超强的应变能力,也反映出朝鲜这位娃娃领导人的冷酷无情,对亲人下毒手更是绝不手软。他在2013年突 然下令处决他的姑丈、朝鲜原第二號人物张承泽。据说过后因受株连而被处死的人超过1万人。他的家族成员据称有大约140人遇害。

美国志在中国

朝鲜是全世界独一无二的共產党世袭王朝,从1948年迄今延续了三代接近70年。三代领导人分別是金日成、金正日和金正恩。金正恩在父亲于2011年去世后「继位」,他当时还不到30岁。


这位年轻的暴君掌握了核子武器以及用来发射核子武器的飞弹,而且时不时向全世界挑战,试炸核子武器和试射飞弹,危害东北亚以及世界和平。

他虽然年纪轻轻,却颇有心机,懂得充分利用朝鲜的地缘政治优势。他声称,搞核子武器是要对抗美国,作为迫使美国从韩国撤军的压力。但这是表面的理由,因为朝鲜的核子武器及其运载火箭根本射不到美国本土,那里会对美国构成威胁?他是利用其核子武器来讹诈中国。

他 的做法的客观效果,是协助美国在军事上围堵中国,因为美国歷任总统都在军事上部署围堵中国,以不让中国海、空军衝破第一岛链为目的。因此美国在日本和韩国 广设军事基地,部署大军,以及部署军舰、军机和各种新式武器和飞弹,说是要应付朝鲜的核子武器威胁,其实是「项庄舞剑,意在沛公」,真正目的是针对中国。

屡受朝鲜拖累

例如,美国已经在日本部署覆盖面很大的「萨德」防导弹系统。最近,美国强迫韩国部署萨德系统,其侦查范围可以把部署在北京的中国军事设施包括在內。中国对此提出反对,使到中、韩关係恶化。不过,如果特朗普延续奥巴马的政策的话,美国在韩国境內部署萨德系统將势在必行。

从 歷史上观察,中国有朝鲜这个近邻是大不幸,因为为了维护朝鲜,为中国本身带来重大灾难。远的不说,在清朝末年,为了协助朝鲜抵抗明治维新之后军力强大的日 本对朝鲜展开的侵略,在1894年发生了中、日甲午战爭。结果中国战败,在1895年派李鸿章到日本签订丧权辱国的《马关条约》,承认朝鲜独立,中国割让 台湾、澎湖及其附属岛屿给日本,更对日本赔偿2.3亿两白银的战爭赔款。甲午战爭是造成清朝灭亡的一个重要因素。

二战后中国收回台、澎的主权。但日本「皇民化」统治,是使台湾人滋生台独思想的主要原因。而美国把原属台湾省的钓鱼台岛划归日本,成为中、日发生主权爭议的导火线,反映出美国用心之狠毒。当然,蒋介石政府迁台,是两岸迄今无法统一的原因。

日本对朝鲜半岛进行50年的殖民地统治(1895-1945)。二战后期,苏联和美国沿北纬38度分別佔领朝鲜半岛北部和南部,並建立共產主义的朝鲜和资本主义的韩国,双方迄今仍然严重对抗。

中国在1949年由共產党统治之后,仍然受到朝鲜拖累。事缘金日成在史达林唆使下,在1950年挥军南下,酿成韩战。美国军事介入。中国为了「援朝」,派「人民志愿军」抗美,到1953年才停战。韩战造成中、美关係恶化,也成为美国长期围堵中国的重要因素。

从金日成到金正恩三代,朝鲜都是依靠中国的援助。然而,平壤政权一直为北京带来不少麻烦。金正恩对国际秩序的挑衅,尤其是不断地试验核子武器,使到中国不胜其扰,终于根据联合国安理会的议决案对朝鲜进行经济制裁,但收效甚微。对金正恩的胡作非为,北京似乎也无可奈何
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on February 27, 2017, 06:25:42 AM



大摩:未来3年增速放缓
中国债务危机风险低
85点看 2017年2月26日
(上海24日讯)国际投行摩根史丹利中国首席经济学家刑自强指出,虽然外界对中国债务规模及坏帐风险仍存在担忧,但他认为中国发生债务危机的风险很低,且随着中国名义经济增速加快,未来两三年中国债务率增速将明显放缓。

中国的债务率(债务与国内生产总值的比值)已从2007年的147%上升到2016年的279%。


他预计,未来两年,虽然中国债务率仍会继续攀升,但每年增量将逐步下滑,预计2017年和2018年分别上升12个百分点和9个百分点,而2016年为21个百分点。

他说:“如果中国愿意承受更低的增长,愿意收紧货币政策,通过监管来堵住套利的空间,控制杠杆,有望在未来两三年进一步上升的速度流量会得到控制,这有助于减缓大家对未来坏账债务问题发生风险的担心。”

外债比例不高

大摩预计,中国今明2年的实质GDP增速分别为6.4%和6.2%,而去年中国GDP增速为6.7%;预计今年名义GDP增速将从去年的8%上升至9.4%。

他认为,尽管中国过往债务可能有一些坏账的风险,尤其是一些产能过剩的制造业,但国内储蓄率相当高,而且基本是内债,外债比例不高。

他还补充,中国与希腊等海外发生债务危机的国家,有非常大的不同,给中国应对各种问题,包括潜在坏账、资产质量提供了很大的缓冲的空间。

其次,中国整体对外投资的净头寸,包括外汇储备都比较高。外汇储备哪怕降到3兆美元(约13.32兆令吉)以下,离合理最低水平还有很大距离。

这些因素使得中国央行有能力管理流通冲击,而流通危机是很多其他经济体爆发所谓债务危机的很大原因,新兴市场没有国内高储蓄率、外汇储备、海外净头寸,一旦出现一点点坏账问题出现流动性急剧紧张。

第三,中国政府拥有大量资产,例如国有股权和土地储备。

此外,摩根史丹利上周发布《中国经济蓝皮书》,展望未来十年的中国经济发展趋势。

打破中等收入陷井

预计未来十年,中国将打破中等收入陷井,经济逐步过渡到具备高附加值的制造业和服务业,至2027年中国人均GDP将达到1万2900美元(约5.72万令吉),从而成为高收入国家。

在过去三十年里,人口超过2000万的国家中,只有韩国和波兰成功突破中等收入陷井,成为高收入国家。


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on February 27, 2017, 06:33:29 AM



Sunday, 26 February 2017 | MYT 9:10 AM
Wary of Trump unpredictability, China ramps up naval abilities

BY BEN BLANCHARDandMICHAEL MARTINA

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/02/26/01/10/20170226t010749z_2_lynxmped1p00p_rtroptp_4_chinadefencenavy.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=029BD7AEC0EE660E38EA6A097B550AC51FFA7056


 
BEIJING (Reuters) - The PLA Navy is likely to secure significant new funding in China's upcoming defence budget as Beijing seeks to check U.S. dominance of the high seas and step up its own projection of power around the globe.

China's navy has been taking an increasingly prominent role in recent months, with a rising star admiral taking command, its first aircraft carrier sailing around self-ruled Taiwan and new Chinese warships popping up in far-flung places.

Now, with President Donald Trump promising a U.S. shipbuilding spree and unnerving Beijing with his unpredictable approach on hot button issues including Taiwan and the South and East China Seas, China is pushing to narrow the gap with the U.S. Navy.

"It's opportunity in crisis," said a Beijing-based Asian diplomat, of China's recent naval moves. "China fears Trump will turn on them eventually as he's so unpredictable and it's getting ready."

Beijing does not give a breakdown for how much it spends on the navy, and the overall official defence spending figures it gives - 954.35 billion yuan ($139 billion) for 2016 - likely understates its investment, according to diplomats.

China unveils the defence budget for this year at next month's annual meeting of parliament, a closely watched figure around the region and in Washington, for clues to China's intentions.

China surprised last year with its lowest increase in six years, 7.6 percent, the first single-digit rise since 2010, following a nearly unbroken two-decade run of double-digit jumps.

"Certainly, the PLA Navy has really been the beneficiary of a lot of this new spending in the past 15 years," said Richard Bitzinger, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the Military Transformations Programme at the S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"We don't how much they spend on the navy, but simply extrapolating from the quantity and the quality of things that are coming out of their shipyards, it's pretty amazing."

To view a graphic on the military balance in the Asia Pacific, click http://tmsnrt.rs/2kY3K8B

RAPID DEVELOPMENT

The Chinese navy, once generally limited to coastal operations, has developed rapidly under President Xi Jinping's ambitious military modernisation.

It commissioned 18 ships in 2016, including missile destroyers, corvettes and guided missile frigates, according to state media.

Barely a week goes by without an announcement of some new piece of equipment, including an electronic reconnaissance ship put into service in January.

Still, the PLA Navy significantly lags the United States, which operates 10 aircraft carriers to China's one, the Soviet-era Liaoning.

Xu Guangyu, a retired major general in the People's Liberation Army now senior adviser to the government-run China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, said China was keenly aware of the U.S. ability to project power at sea.

"It's like a marathon and we're falling behind. We need to step on the gas," Xu said.

Trump has vowed to increase the U.S. Navy to 350 ships from the current 290 as part of "one of the "greatest military buildups in American history", a move aides say is needed to counter China's rise as a military power.

"We’ve known this is a 15-20 year project and every year they get closer to being a blue-water navy with global aspirations," said a U.S. administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

"What you have seen this last year and what I think you will see with the new budget is that they are moving ahead with the short-term goal of being the premier naval force in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, with the mid-term goal, of extending all the way to the Indian Ocean."

In January, China appointed new navy chief, Shen Jinlong, to lead that push.

Shen has enjoyed a meteoric rise and is close to Xi, diplomatic and leadership sources say.

"The navy has gotten very lucky with Shen," said a Chinese official close to the military, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Now they know for certain their support goes all the way to the top."

Recent PLA Navy missions have included visits to Gulf states, where the United States has traditionally protected sea lanes, and to the South China Sea, Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, in what the state-run website StrongChina called Shen's "first show of force against the United States, Japan and Taiwan".

Last month, a Chinese submarine docked at a port in Malaysia's Sabah state, which lies on the South China Sea, only the second confirmed visit of a Chinese submarine to a foreign port, according to state media.

The submarine had come from supporting anti-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia, where China has been learning valuable lessons about overseas naval operations since 2008.

Chinese warships have also been calling at ports in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, unnerving regional rival India.

"It's power projection," said a Beijing-based Western diplomat, of China's navy.

($1 = 6.8640 Chinese yuan)

(Additional reporting by David Brunnstrom and Adrees Ali in WASHINGTON; Editing by Lincoln Feast)


Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2017/02/26/wary-of-trump-unpredictability-china-ramps-up-naval-abilities/#7yJj4RMRQKvB6yOe.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 05, 2017, 12:55:39 PM



Sunday, 5 March 2017 | MYT 8:17 AM
China aims for around 6.5% economic growth in 2017
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2015/11/15/08/41/premier-li-keqiang.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=12FDB0B55085E580D2C7196D53A2477695AD75EF
Premier Li Keqiang
Premier Li Keqiang
 
BEIJING: China is aiming to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent in 2017, Premier Li Keqiang said in remarks prepared for delivery at the opening of the annual meeting of parliament on Sunday.

That compares with a 2016 economic growth target of 6.5 to 7 percent.

Top leaders at the National People's Congress are tolerating slightly slower economic growth this year to give them more room to push through some painful reforms to deal with a rapid build-up in debt.

A lending binge and increased government spending last year have fuelled worries about high debt levels and an overheating housing market.

China's gross domestic product grew 6.7 percent in 2016, the slowest in 26 years.

China also set a budget deficit target of 3 percent of gross domestic product for 2017, the country's finance ministry said in its work plan unveiled at the meeting, in line with the target set a year earlier.

It set a fiscal deficit target for the year of 2.38 trillion yuan ($345.16 billion).

Last year, Beijing set a 2016 budget deficit target of 3 percent of GDP. Sources told Reuters in January that policymakers had in December set a 3 percent deficit target for 2017. - Reuters

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/03/05/china-aims-for-around-6pt5pct-economic-growth-in-2017/#gk2pwiegKgeLYc73.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 05, 2017, 12:58:28 PM



国际  2017年03月05日
中国消费者抵制韩企 乐天超市倒闭

1.2K
中国消费者抵制韩企 乐天超市倒闭

韩国乐天集团同意供地予军方部署萨德导弹防衞系统后,引起中方和中国民眾不满。

有中国网民呼吁消费者抵制韩国企业,导致中国「乐天玛特」超市面临营运危机,近日陆续倒闭。



 


香港《东网》报导,江苏连云港市区的乐天超市今近日出现大批顾客,使用购物卡抢购货物,有顾客表示:「来把购物卡用掉,以后再不来。」

此外,位於北京的乐天超市已纷纷倒闭。超市门口已张贴招租电话號码。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 10, 2017, 05:34:36 PM



Update
Oil edges off 3-month low, but glut worries fester
By Reuters / Reuters   | March 10, 2017 : 4:40 PM MYT   
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Translated by Google Translator:
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TOKYO (March 10): Crude prices inched up on Friday after dropping to their lowest in more than three months the session before, pressured by concerns that a global supply glut is proving stubbornly persistent.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 17 cents or 0.4% at US$49.45 a barrel at 0746 GMT. It fell below US$50 on Thursday for the first since mid-December, when OPEC and other producers agreed to cut output.

Brent crude was up 12 cents or 0.2% at US$52.31 a barrel, having settled down 1.7% in the previous session and slumping 5% the day before, in its biggest percentage decline in a year.

WTI is on track for a 7.2% decline this week, the biggest weekly drop since early November. Brent is heading for a 6.4% fall, also the biggest since early November.

Market confidence has taken a hit after a period of higher prices enticed more U.S. shale oil companies to drill more wells and as stockpiles have remained high.

"Steep price falls in the last two days amid building U.S. inventories show that the market remains concerned about the supply-demand balance," NAB Group Economics said in a research note.

Data showed crude stocks in the United States, the world's top oil consumer, swelled by 8.2 million barrels last week to a record 528.4 million barrels.

U.S. drilling has also picked up, with producers planning to expand crude production in North Dakota, Oklahoma and other shale regions, while output has jumped in the Permian, America's largest oilfield.

That has undermined the bullish sentiment generated after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and major producers, including Russia agreed to cut production in the first half of this year to drain a global glut.

"Should data continue to confirm that the OPEC-Russia deal is holding, we expect a gradual uptrend this year, although if inventories remain elevated a rally will be less likely," NAB said.

Senior Saudi energy officials told top independent U.S. oil firms in a closed-door meeting this week that they should not assume OPEC would extend output curbs to offset rising production from U.S. shale fields, two industry sources told Reuters on Thursday.

Energy ministers and senior oil executives are meeting this week at CERAWeek in Houston, the biggest U.S. gathering of the oil industry.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 15, 2017, 12:24:05 PM



李克强:GDP 6.5%目标很不容易
全国人大闭幕,国务院总理李克强今日依照惯例举行总理记者会。李克强表示,中国今年6.5%的经济增长目标不低,也很不容易,但中国不发展是最大风险,强调中国金融体系是总体安全,不会发生系统性风险。

(图:法新社)
(中国.北京15日讯)全国人大闭幕,国务院总理李克强今日依照惯例举行总理记者会。李克强表示,中国今年6.5%的经济增长目标不低,也很不容易,但中国不发展是最大风险,强调中国金融体系是总体安全,不会发生系统性风险。

广告
 

 
李克强称,中国保持中高速稳定增长是对世界稳定做贡献,目前中国经济增速目标符合经济规律,亦更注意质量和效益。

他认为,世界经济政治不确定性是很大的外部风险,中国经济自身也有不可忽视的风险,如金融领域。不过,中国金融体系是总体安全的,不会发生系统性风险,而政府赤字、银行资本充足率等许多指标表现都超出国际标准,相信中国经济中高速发展会系紧“安全带”。

他续指,在全球化进程受到挫折的情况下,中国始终坚持维护经济全球化,支持自由贸易。中国愿意与世界各国一同解决全球化问题。(香港明报)

文章来源:
星洲网‧2017.03.15
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 16, 2017, 09:02:23 PM



China, Saudi Arabia eye US$65 bil in deals as king visits
TheEdgeThu, Mar 16, 2017

BEIJING/RIYADH (March 16): Saudi Arabia's King Salman oversaw the signing of deals worth potentially US$65 billion as he began a visit to Beijing on Thursday, as the world's largest oil producer looks to cement ties with the world's second-largest economy.

The octogenarian monarch, who has overseen the launch of an ambitious economic reform plan since his accession two years ago, is on a month-long Asian tour.

The visits to countries that are some of world's fastest growing importers of Saudi oil aim to promote investment opportunities in the kingdom, including the sale of a stake in its giant state firm Saudi Aramco.

Saudi Arabia has sought to boost oil sales to China, the world's second-largest oil market, after losing market share to Russia last year, by working mostly with China's top three state oil firms.

Chinese President Xi Jinping told Salman in Beijing's cavernous Great Hall of the People that his visit showed the importance he attached to relations with China.

"This visit will push forward and continue to improve the quality of our relations and bear new fruit," Xi said in comments in front of reporters.

'Old friends'

Deputy Chinese Foreign Minister Zhang Ming said the memorandums of understanding and letters of intent were potentially worth about US$65 billion, involving everything from energy to space, but he did not give details.

"President Xi Jinping and King Salman are old friends," Zhang said. "Practical cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia has already made major achievements, and has huge potential."

For Saudi Aramco, the potential investments fit with its strategy to expand its refining and chemicals portfolio in its bid to diversify assets and secure long-term agreements for its oil.

An MoU with state-run Norinco will look into building refining and chemical projects in China, while Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) and Sinopec have agreed to develop petrochemical projects in China and Saudi Arabia.

The Norinco deal could involve exploring the possibility of a greenfield refinery and chemical plant in Panjin, Liaoning province, while also upgrading an existing refinery and petrochemical facility in the same location, an industry source said.

Sinopec and SABIC, one of the world's largest petrochemical companies, jointly run a refinery in Tinajin.

'Honest broker'

China has traditionally played little role in Middle East conflicts or diplomacy, despite its reliance on the region for oil. But it has been trying to get more involved in efforts to end Syria's six-year-old civil war, where Riyadh supports rebels battling President Bashar al-Assad.

Last year China also offered support for Yemen's government, which is backed by a Saudi-led Gulf Arab coalition in a war against the Iranian-aligned Houthi movement that controls much of the country.

Zhang said both the Yemen and Syria crises were discussed by Salman and Xi, and both leaders agreed that these issues must be resolved politically via talks.

China has had to tread a careful line, though, as it also has close relations with Iran. Xi visited both Saudi Arabia and Iran in January last year.

Next week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits China.

One Beijing-based diplomat from a Muslim-majority country told Reuters that China was trying to play the role of "honest broker" in the Middle East, as it lacks the historical baggage of the Americans or the Europeans.

"China does not take sides and that is appreciated," said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on March 24, 2017, 05:55:57 PM



2017-03-24 17:13
NCD发行成本飙升‧中银行业钱荒恐再现
中国金融系统正受到一个新问题的困扰,那就是可转让定期存单(Negotiable Certificate of Deposit,简称NCD)的大量使用。
(中国‧北京24日讯)中国金融系统正受到一个新问题的困扰,那就是可转让定期存单(Negotiable Certificate of Deposit,简称NCD)的大量使用。

广告
 

 
N CD是类似债券的贷款,期限从1个月至1年不等。中资银行对NCD的使用呈爆炸式增长,这对中国政府降低经济增长对投资和债务依赖的决心构成考验。

为遏制债务融资引发的资产泡沫,中国政府上调了一系列关键短期利率,受此影响,NCD的成本也快速上升,并使银行业暴露于投资亏损和突现融资压力的风险之下。中国政府自1月底以来已两度上调短期利率。

如此下去前景堪忧,2013年后果严重的钱荒局面或将重现。

招商银行(China Merchants Bank)高级分析师刘东亮称,NCD的风险很高,如果处理不当,有可能在整个金融系统内引发流动性危机。

中资银行(主要是中小型银行)通过NCD的融资总额已刷新纪录,今年迄今已达人民币4.4万亿元(合6390亿美元),较去年同期增长65%。这些银行用融资所得购买收益更高、期限更长的资产,比如公司债券或者同业银行发售的投资产品。

N CD最初有吸引力是因为成本低、不要求抵押。但自去年10月份以来,发行AA评级的3个月期NCD的平均成本已经从2.90%涨至4.72%,某些情况下甚至高于AA评级的1年期公司债的收益率。

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经·2
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 02, 2017, 06:14:48 PM



MONEY

China raises interest rates on standing lending facility loans
Published: April 1, 2017 06:17 PM GMT+8

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China’s central bank sought to increase borrowing costs by raising interest rates for standing lending facility loans. — Reuters file pic
China’s central bank sought to increase borrowing costs by raising interest rates for standing lending facility loans. — Reuters file pic
BEIJING, April 1 — China’s central bank raised interest rates for standing lending facility loans, aimed mainly at small- and medium-sized financial institutions, it announced yesterday.

The People’s Bank of China increased the rate for overnight SLF loans by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3 per cent effective from March 16, it said in a statement on its website. The bank raised the rate for 7-day loans to 3.45 per cent and the 1-month rate to 3.8 per cent.

Once largely reliant on benchmark rates, the PBOC has in recent years used an expanding number of instruments to guide borrowing costs and create an interest-rate corridor. It has increased the frequency of its open-market operations, while officials have been more vocal in signalling policy intentions.

The bank said it conducted about 122 billion yuan (RM78.3 billion) of operations for the SLF loans last month and the outstanding facility was about 70 billion yuan at the end of March. The SLF rates play a role in being the ceiling of an interest-rate corridor and will favour stable operation of rates in the currency market, the bank said.

The SLF is similar to the Federal Reserve’s discount window and the European Central Bank’s Marginal Lending Facility. It was started in 2013 and its maximum maturity has been kept at one month or below for the past two years.

China’s central bank sought to increase borrowing costs as a stable economy and factory reflation give it scope to follow the Federal Reserve in tightening policy. The financial institutions have strong incentives to expand credit with the economy steady, inflation accelerating and real-lending costs going down, the central bank said in a statement last month. —

- See more at: http://m.themalaymailonline.com/money/article/china-raises-interest-rates-on-standing-lending-facility-loans#sthash.n7SsAFcu.dpuf
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 04, 2017, 08:32:21 AM



2017-04-03 15:44
中国人行拟收紧货币政策
中国人行最新货币政策例会对全球经济复苏持更乐观的看法,但也认为国际性风险增多,并更强调了货币政策趋紧的基调。
(中国.北京3日讯)中国人行最新货币政策例会对全球经济复苏持更乐观的看法,但也认为国际性风险增多,并更强调了货币政策趋紧的基调。

广告
 

 
中国人行在第一季度货币政策例会的最新表述是,全球经济逐步复苏,主要发达国家复苏步伐有所加快,国际金融市场存在较多风险隐患,要实施好稳健中性的货币政策。

而此前在去年第四季度货币政策例会中,中国中行表示,主要经济体经济走势分化,美国经济复苏有所加快,欧元区复苏基础尚待巩固,日本经济低迷,国际金融市场风险隐患增多,并表示继续实施稳健的货币政策。

防风险遏泡沫去产能

今年以来主要经济体经济逐步复苏,美联储持续加息,其它发达经济体货币政策也有逐步趋紧的迹象,从中国国内看,一季度经济持续复苏,同时政府更强调要防风险遏泡沫以及去产能,加上汇率维稳要求,中国中行也正进一步收紧货币政策。

事实上,今年以来,中国中行已两度上调货币市场工具利率,包括公开市场逆回购利率、常备借贷便利(SLF)利率以及中期借贷便利(MLF)利率,虽然中行一直强调这并不意味着加息(传统意义上的加息是指上调基准存贷款利率),但其收紧的意图已非常明显。

去年底中国政府提出货币政策要“稳健中性”,和此前一直表述的“稳健”有些许调整,市场解读为货币政策将退出宽松并逐步趋紧。


东尼看上越南 开第二家廉航公司

广告

 
中国中行在第一季度货币政策例会上还表示,综合运用多种货币政策工具,维护流动性基本稳定,引导货币信贷及社会融资规模合理增长。

汇率机制方面,中国中行则重申,进一步推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

文章来源:
星洲日报‧财经‧2017.04.03
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 17, 2017, 12:22:23 PM



Highlight
China 1Q GDP grows faster than expected 6.9%, steel output hits record
Reuters
/
Reuters

April 17, 2017 11:13 am MYT
-A+A
BEIJING (April 17): China's economy grew 6.9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market that is showing signs of overheating.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8% in the first quarter, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of 2016.

First-quarter growth was the fastest since the third quarter of 2015, with March data showing investment, retail sales, factory output and exports all grew faster than expected.

The strong reading should help underpin wobbly global financial markets but adds to worries that China's government is still relying too heavily on stimulus and "old economy" growth drivers and is not doing enough to tackle risks from an explosive build-up in debt.

While China's data has been largely upbeat so far this year, many analysts widely expect the world's second-largest economy to lose steam later in the year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities step up their battle to rein in hot housing prices.

Real estate investment growth accelerated to 9.1% in the first quarter from a year earlier, as the pace of new construction starts quickened despite intensified government cooling measures.

Though policymakers have pledged repeatedly to push reforms to head off financial risks and asset bubbles, the government is seeking to keep the world's second-largest economy on an even keel ahead of a major leadership transition later this year.

The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5% in 2017, slightly lower than last year's target of 6.5-7% and the actual 6.7%, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.

Economic data was up across the board in March, with factory output increasing at the fastest pace since December 2014 and firms stepping up capital investments after a slowdown last year.

Industrial output rose 7.6% in March, with steel output the highest on record, according to Reuters data, adding to evidence of a global manufacturing revival that is buoying prices of industrial materials from iron ore to coking coal.

But consumption also appears to be picking up, contributing to 77.2% of first-quarter growth, while retail sales growth picked up to 10.9% after slowing in the first two months of the year.

Still, many analysts expect economic growth to cool later this year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities resort to ever-tougher measures in a bid to get soaring home prices under control.

Beijing also is continuing to rely heavily on new credit to generate growth as productivity slows, despite worries about debt risks.

China's banks extended the third highest loans on record in the first quarter, though March lending was less than expected.

At the same time, China's central bank has shifted to a tightening bias, and is using more targeted measures to contain risks in the financial system, after years of ultra-loose settings.

It has raised short-term interest rates several times already this year, and further modest hikes are expected as it tries to coax debt-laden firms to reduce leverage.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on April 24, 2017, 03:28:06 PM



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 24 April 2017 | MYT 2:02 PM
China stocks head for worst day of 2017 as regulators tighten grip
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/04/24/06/06/yuan-april17.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=A76AF81F7B16E879F4B6E47571D4DA3BE3282457

 
SHANGHAI: China stocks tumbled more than 1 percent on Monday and looked set for their biggest loss of the year amid signs that Beijing would tolerate more market volatility as regulators clamp down on shadow banking and speculative trading.

Recent signs of stability in China's economy "have provided a good external environment and a window of opportunity to reduce leverage in the financial system, strengthen supervision and ward off risks," the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday.

"Over the past week, interbank rates trended higher, bond and capital markets suffered from sustained corrections and some institutions faced liquidity pressure. But these have little impact to the stability of the broader environment."

The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 1.6 percent to 3,123.80 points by the lunch break, after posting its biggest weekly loss so far this year last week.

The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 1.3 percent to 3,423.11.

Barring a rebound, the indexes looked set for their biggest one-day percentage loss since mid-December.

Daily declines of more than 1 percent in the indexes have been rare for notoriously volatile Chinese markets this year.

"Even the better-than-expected Q1 data could not boost the market, as investors are concerned about regulatory risks," wrote Larry Hu, analyst at Macquarie Capital Ltd, referring to stronger-than-expected 6.9 percent economic growth early in the year.

In the latest of a flurry of regulatory measures, China's insurance regulator said on Sunday it will ramp up its supervision of insurance companies to make sure they comply with tighter risk controls and threatened to investigate executives who flout rules aimed at rooting out risk-taking.

The banking regulator said late on Friday that growth in Chinese wealth management products (WMPs) and interbank liabilities eased in the first quarter, suggesting authorities are making some headway in containing financial risks built up by years of debt-fuelled stimulus.

But while the clampdown is expected to continue, most analysts believe moves will be cautious to avoid hitting economic growth.

Investors are already concerned that the economy could lose momentum in coming months as local governments launch more stringent measures to cool heated property prices.

"Market risk appetites could continue to decline if financial regulation keeps tightening," said Gao Ting, Head of China Strategy at UBS Securities.

"Investors seem to mostly be responding by adjusting their positions, particularly by rotating into high-quality blue-chips."

Banking is the only main sector that ended the morning in positive territory, while small-caps suffered massive sell-offs, with an index tracking start-up stocks falling nearly 2 percent.

HONG KONG

In Hong Kong, stocks dipped slightly, with the bearish sentiment from China largely neutralized after the market's favoured candidate won through the first round of the French election, reducing the risk of a Brexit-like shock.

The Hang Seng index dropped 0.1 percent to 24,016.23 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index was unchanged at 10,045.78. - Reuters
 
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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/04/24/china-stocks-head-for-worst-day-of-2017-as-regulators-tighten-grip/#S3tqkMEDw6GitPXG.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 04, 2017, 06:46:25 AM



储油备战九大基地曝光
中国战略储备未达安全线
967点看 2017年5月3日
 
中国持续兴建战略石油储备基地。

中国周边地缘局势紧张之际,中国官方公布已在浙江、山东、辽宁、天津、甘肃以及新疆等地,建成9个国家战略石油储备基地,共储备3325万吨原油,较前年大增近30%。


分析指中国持续兴建战略石油储备基地,是要增强应对进口石油遭中断风险的能力,但目前存量还未达90天战略储备的“安全线”,因此将争取在4年内,建成百日石油净进口量的储备总规模。

中国官媒报道,国家发改委、国家统计局及商务部等部委日前同步发布消息,指至去年年中,已建成舟山、舟山扩建、镇海、大连、黄岛、独山子、兰州、天津及黄岛国家石油储备洞库(地下库)。

较前年大增715万吨

这9个国家石油储备基地,储备约占全国2015年石油净进口量的10%。而前年年中存量为2610万吨,显示国家石油储备在短短一年内,急增了715万吨。

官方资料显示,上述9个储备基地,储备库容达到500万立方米或以上的基地有4个,包括浙江舟山、镇海和天津及新疆独山子石油储备基地。

库容达到300万立方米的则有山东黄岛、黄岛洞库、甘肃兰州、辽宁大连,而舟山扩建石油储备基地,库容也有250万立方米。

报道引述专家表示,中国原油对外依存度已升至65%,大规模建设国家石油储备基地,主要为进一步增强中国应对石油中断风险的能力。另有专家就分析指出,中国加快储备石油,为应对随时可能爆发的战争。

不过专家认为,中国石油储备量还远远未达国际能源署规定的战略石油储备能力90天的“安全线”,且仍然远低于美国、日本、德国的储备量。

根据国务院批准的《国家石油储备中长期规划》,2020年以前,中国将陆续建设国家石油储备第二期、第三期项目,形成相当于100日石油净进口量的储备总规模。



已建3条陆地管道
防甲峡海路通道断

中国在积极建立石油战略储备的同时,为防范海上原油通道被切断及突破马六甲海峡困局,一方面发展海军力量,加强海上护航能力,另一方面则在过去十多年间,至少已建成3条陆地进口原油管道。

后者包括西北通道中亚、中哈管道、东北的中俄管道及西南的中缅管道。

西北原油通道,包括中国连接哈萨克的原油管道,西起里海的阿特劳,终点为中哈边界阿拉山口,全长近2800公里。

而中国连接中亚天然气管道起于土库曼,经乌兹别克中部和哈萨克南部,从霍尔果斯进入中国,管道全长约1万公里,是世界最长的天然气管道。

中俄原油管道长4770公里,由西伯利亚至中国东北。中缅油气管道是中国第四大能源进口通道,包括原油管道和天然气管道,可使原油运输不经马六甲海峡,从西南地区输送。

国际形势诡谲多变
趁油价低快速储备

中国的战略石油储备,是为了应对突发事件,确保国家能源安全的重要措施之一。

为应对国家快速发展及诡谲多变的国际形势,中国近年趁国际油价下跌,积极增加石油储备量,惟与美、日等其他国家相比,仍有相当大的差距。

可抑制物价大波动

国家石油储备是一个国家的重要战略储备项目之一,一方面可应对石油供应中断带来的国家安全风险,另可抑制市场物价大幅波动造成的风险。

1973年第一次石油危机爆发后,世界油价上涨了5倍,引起西方经济和社会大动荡,由此,西方各国开始建立石油战略储备体系。

据悉,美国目前的国家战略石油储备约为9400万吨左右,足以支持149天的进口保护;而日本的战略储备也接近150天;德国的战略储备为100天。

Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 05, 2017, 03:06:16 PM



2017-05-05 14:25
负债惊人‧中铁总=泡沫帝国?
扮演中国“走出去”重责大任的中国铁路总公司(简称:中铁总),日前公布了2016年财报,总负债高达近5兆元(人民币,下同),超过3.14兆令吉,相较9年前债务增加了7倍。

(新华社照片)
(北京5日讯)扮演中国“走出去”重责大任的中国铁路总公司(简称:中铁总),日前公布了2016年财报,总负债高达近5兆元(人民币,下同),超过3.14兆令吉,相较9年前债务增加了7倍。

广告

 
中铁近期收购大马城不成,引起关注。

根据报道,令人惊异的是,不仅债务惊人,中铁总盈利也低到惊人,在政府的大力补贴下,2016年前3季还亏55.77亿,随着中国一带一路,以高铁为主的基建走出走,负债恐越来越大,说它是泡沫帝国,一点也不为过。

中国媒体嘲讽,全球恐怕找不出几家这样的企业:注册资本惊人、资产惊人、债务惊人、盈利也低到惊人,更传奇的是,总债务已高达4.7兆,每年债务还以6000亿规模在增加,且这样的债务增长故事,已经多年。

2013年3月14日,中国国务院批覆组建中国铁路总公司,注册资本达1兆360亿元,连4大国有银行都无法比拟,相比中国主权基金中投公司1.55兆的注册资本毫不逊色,绝对堪称是特殊央企。

文章来源:
星洲网·2017.05.05
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 07, 2017, 07:31:58 PM



2017-05-05 18:09
破除谣言‧中国政府负债率仅36.7%
中国人民银行(中国中行,简称人行)官员分析,中国政府负债率可能超过60%警戒线。中国财政部表示,截至2016年年底,中国政府负债总额达27.33兆元(人民币,下同),负债率为36.7%,风险总体可控。

(中国‧北京5日讯)中国人民银行(中国中行,简称人行)官员分析,中国政府负债率可能超过60%警戒线。中国财政部表示,截至2016年年底,中国政府负债总额达27.33兆元(人民币,下同),负债率为36.7%,风险总体可控。

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中国人民银行研究局局长徐忠日前分析,中国政府地方债务余额在2014年底累积达到24兆元,若是联同城投债等其他隐项负债,中国政府负债可能超过60%的政府债务警戒线。

中国财政部有关负责人指出,截至2016年底,中国地方政府债务为15.32兆元,地方政府债务率为80.5%。加上纳入预算管理的中央债务12.01兆元,两者合计,中国政府债务为27.33兆元。

按照中国国家统计局公布的2016年国内生产总额(GDP)初步核算数74.41兆元计算,中国政府债务负债率为36.7%,低于主要市场经济国家和新兴市场国家水平,风险总体可控。

这名负责人表示,一些地方政府违法违规举债融资问题仍时有发生,部份金融机构对融资平台公司等国有企业提供融资时,仍要求地方政府提供担保承诺。部份政府和社会资本合作项目、政府投资基金等存在不规范现象,违反现行法律法规,扰乱市场秩序,提高财政金融风险。

中国财政部与中国国家发展和改革委员会、司法部、中国人民银行、中国银行业监督管理委员会、中国证券监督管理委员会已经发布通知,进一步规范地方政府举债融资行为,希望能守住不发生区域性、系统性风险底线。

中国六部委联手 严管地方举债

中国财政部等六部委近日联袂下发通知,进一步规范地方政府举债融资行为,严禁利用PPP变相举债。分析认为,从房地产调控到金融严监管,再到下发这份通知,都是为落实中央所提出,“守住不发生区域性、系统性风险的底线”。

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中国财政部、发展改革委、司法部、人民银行、银监会、证监会近日联合发布“关于进一步规范地方政府举债融资行为的通知”,这份“通知”重点在组织清理整改地方政府融资担保行为、切实加强融资平台公司融资管理、规范政府与社会资本方的合作行为等六大方面,明确了规范的举债融资行为边界和负面清单,坚决制止违法违规举债担保行为。

中国财政部指出,一些地区政府违法违规举债担保仍时有发生,部份金融机构对企业提供融资时仍要求地方政府提供担保承诺,部份政府和社会资本合作(PPP)项目、政府投资基金等存在不规范现象。这些行为违反了现行法律法规和制度规定,也扰乱市场秩序,积聚财政金融风险。

为制止地方政府违法违规举债担保行为,中国财政部将建立地方政府债务常态化监督机制,定期核查违法违规融资担保问题,加大惩处违法违规行为工作力度,并公开曝光一批违法违规案例。

中国近年来“PPP”规模快速膨胀,据统计,全国PPP项目投资额从2016年1月的4100亿元,到当年底已达到2.23兆元。在快速发展的同时,也出现“明股实债”、项目风险分配不当等问题。

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联讯证券首席宏观研究员李奇霖表示,此次下发的这份通知,将地方政府债务管理上升到维护总体国家安全的高度。通知并要求必须在7月31日前清理整改到位,对逾期不改正或改正不到位的部门、市县政府,追究相关责任人的责任。在地方政府举债融资严监管之下,基础建设资金来源将进一步受阻。

李奇霖认为,中国目前推行中的金融去杠杆,提高了实体融资成本和难度,对经济的负反馈作用将逐步显现

文章来源:
星洲日报/财经·2017.05.05
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 08, 2017, 04:20:11 PM



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 8 May 2017 | MYT 3:47 PM
China’s crackdown on shadow banking could seriously upset global markets
BY NICHOLAS SPIRO

image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/05/08/07/06/chinasforexreserveskeepupgrowthspurtexpandingroomforreform.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=82D194F479C3F7D8003E876776014EAF57E447D8

 
HONG KONG: Amid all the talk of remarkably subdued levels of volatility, signs of potentially severe stress are emerging from one of the most – if not the most – vulnerable areas in global financial markets: China’s unruly shadow banking sector.

The Beijing government’s efforts to discipline its financial system and rein in a huge credit bubble have already led to a deterioration in sentiment in the country’s equity and debt markets.

Since the drive to curb financial leverage intensified in early April, China’s banks have started withdrawing money from so-called entrusted investments – asset or wealth management products that banks outsource to third-party asset managers – which has forced non-bank financial institutions to sell their bond and equity holdings.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which on April 11 reached its highest level since January 2016 – the month during which global stock markets suffered a dramatic sell-off because of heightened fears about China’s economy and policy regime – has fallen more than 5.5 per cent over the past month.

Short-term lending rates, meanwhile, have surged since President Xi Jinping told a politburo meeting on April 26 that maintaining financial stability was “strategically important”. The overnight Shanghai interbank offered rate currently stands at its highest level since April 2015.

More worryingly, there are signs that China’s economy is beginning to slow once again. On April 30, the publication of an official purchasing managers’ index survey showed that growth in the manufacturing sector last month fell to a six-month low. A separate survey for China’s services sector also revealed that activity has dropped to its lowest level in six months.

A brutal sell-off across commodity markets is putting China’s manufacturing industry under strain and, more alarmingly for international investors and traders, accentuating the risks posed by Beijing’s efforts to tighten liquidity and rein in shadow bank credit.

While the steep falls in commodity prices – iron ore has dropped below US$60 a tonne for the first time in six months, copper prices are down more than 6 per cent since the end of March, while Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, is back below US$50 a barrel for the first time since late November – stem partly from persistent concerns about global oversupply, the sell-off is inextricably linked to measures to curb financial risk in China.

As ADM ISI, a London-based brokerage, rightly notes, “while oil’s fall owes much to doubts about the efficacy of production cut, this is as much or more about the China clampdown on credit and leverage”.

Make no mistake, the global repercussions of Chinese regulators’ efforts to tame financial risk could become a lot more severe in the coming weeks and months.

The whiff of another “January 2016” is in the air.

While Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on shadow finance is long overdue – China’s total debt as a share of gross domestic product has surged to nearly 265 per cent since the global financial crisis, while the value of wealth management products, a key part of shadow banking, has tripled to US$3.8 trillion in just three years, according to Bloomberg – the challenge of gently pricking an unprecedented credit bubble without roiling global markets and severely endangering growth in China is a daunting one.

The stakes could not be higher.

As Pimco, an asset manager, notes, Chinese credit has been the driving force behind the “reflation trade” over the past year or so. “Just as a less hawkish Federal Reserve is the backstop to market volatility, the Chinese growth ‘put’ is ultimately the backstop to [emerging market] and commodity-related credit risk,” Pimco wrote in a blog.

Among all the pressure points in markets – and there are many, ranging from concerns about economic policy under the new US administration to the governance of the ill-managed euro zone – regulatory and monetary tightening in China is the one that investors are the most sensitive to.

The betting is that Xi will prize market stability and economic growth above all else in the run-up to November’s crucial party congress at which he expects to cement his influence.

Yet it is also clear that the political impetus behind recent efforts to discipline China’s shaky financial system is considerable and is likely to intensify further, putting commodity markets under further strain.

For the time being, the fallout from the crackdown is confined to the commodity space. Global equity markets remain buoyant while EM bond and equity mutual funds continue to enjoy strong inflows.

Yet the scope for another major China-induced sell-off has increased considerably over the past month. - South China Morning Post.

Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking , Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/08/china-crackdown-on-shadow-banking-could-seriously-upset-global-markets/#ooR3WPxaKAa6VXMB.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 10, 2017, 06:00:52 PM



中国最富500人
王健林父子1129亿元登顶
1557点看 2017年5月10日
 
王健林(左)和王思聪的财富缩水了9.5%。(网络图)

(北京10日综合电)新财富杂志微信公众号发布《2017新财富500富人榜》,王健林、王思聪父子以人民币1794.3亿元(约1129.45亿令吉)的财富坐稳首富宝座,紧接着马云的财富也达到1562.6亿元(约983.3亿令吉),而王卫凭借1504.5亿元(约946.8亿令吉)的财富取代马化腾,跻身富人榜的前三位。


贾跃亭财富缩水

与此同时,去年新财富500富人榜前十名中的贾跃亭财富缩水近300亿元(约188.8亿令吉),从去年第9名跌至34名。

虽然王健林、王思聪父子仍坐拥今年富豪榜的第一位,不过这个首富的宝座含金量有所下降。相较2016年的接近2000亿元财富,王健林、王思聪的财富缩水了9.5%。而今年排名第二的马云,期间财富反而上涨了24.3%,由1256.6亿元增至1562.6亿元。

受益于顺丰上市,王卫的财富从去年的300亿元升至1504.5亿元,一年之内暴涨了401.5%。不过,同样备受市场关注的乐视“掌舵者”贾跃亭却遭遇财富缩水。

数字新媒体富豪领风骚

据《新京报》报道,在最近十年间,富人榜完成了洗牌——2007年,中国前十大富人中有七位地产富豪,他们甚至包揽了前四名;而2017年中国前十名富人中有五位来自数字新媒体,而以房地产起家的王健林、卢志强也已向综合转型,地产商独领风骚的年代已经走远。

新闻来源:综合报道

Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 21, 2017, 06:33:00 AM



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Saturday, 20 May 2017 | MYT 8:47 PM
China's Q2 GDP growth seen at around 6.8%
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/01/13/04/22/china-manufacturing.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=7466C71190536A118CB81EACAEFA31CEDADDA84C

 
SHANGHAI: China's economy will likely expand around 6.8 percent in the second quarter of 2017, the State Information Center said in an article published in the state-owned China Securities Journal on Saturday.

The State Information Center is an official think tank affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planning agency.

It forecast consumer inflation in the world's second largest economy of around 1.4 percent and expected an increase of about 6.5 percent in producer price inflation in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier.

"Overall, China's economy will remain stable but with a slightly slowing trend," the think tank said in the paper.

China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a housing market that has shown signs of overheating.

The think tank said it had seen contradictions between government policies to fend off financial risks and reduce corporate finance costs.

"Strengthening financial regulations has weakened the effect of monetary policy to a certain extent," it said, suggesting that a prudent and neutral monetary policy may actually manifest itself as a tightening bias when implemented.

The State Information Center also said that steady growth of the economy may be inhibited due to worsening labour and debt conditions amid deepening cuts in excess industrial capacity.

China is aiming to expand its economy by around 6.5 percent this year, Premier Li Keqiang said during the annual meeting of parliament in March. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/20/china-q2-gdp-growth-seen-at-around-6pt8pct/#6LEHXWoTGGkHCDih.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 25, 2017, 06:33:13 AM



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Wednesday, 24 May 2017 | MYT 1:51 PM
Moody's downgrades China, warns of fading financial strength as debt mounts
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/01/11/06/26/finance-public-debt-eu-eurozone-ratings-moodys-files-002215.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=FF07A50F5690BAE5787B58AB6447D79D6D5E9ACC

 
SHANGHAI: Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit ratings on Wednesday for the first time in nearly 30 years, saying it expects the financial strength of the economy will erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to rise.

The one-notch downgrade in long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings, to A1 from Aa3, comes as the Chinese government grapples with the challenges of rising financial risks stemming from years of credit-fuelled stimulus.

"The downgrade reflects Moody's expectation that China's financial strength will erode somewhat over the coming years, with economy-wide debt continuing to rise as potential growth slows," the rating agency said in a statement, changing its outlook for China to stable from negative.

China's Finance Ministry said the downgrade, Moody's first for the country since 1989, overestimated the risks to the economy and was based on "inappropriate methodology".

Moody'€s views that China'€s non-financial debt will rise rapidly and the government would continue to maintain growth via stimulus measures are exaggerating difficulties facing the Chinese economy, and underestimating the Chinese government's ability to deepen supply-side structural reform and appropriately expand aggregate demand, the ministry said in a statement.

China's leaders have identified the containment of financial risks and asset bubbles as a top priority this year. All the same, authorities have moved cautiously to avoid knocking economic growth, gingerly raising short-term interest rates while tightening regulatory supervision.

At the same time, Beijing's need to deliver on official growth targets is likely to make the economy increasingly reliant on stimulus, Moody's said.

"While ongoing progress on reforms is likely to transform the economy and financial system over time, it is not likely to prevent a further material rise in economy-wide debt, and the consequent increase in contingent liabilities for the government," Moody's said.

While the downgrade is likely to modestly increase the cost of borrowing for the Chinese government and its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), it remains comfortably within the investment grade rating range.

China's Shanghai Composite index fell more than 1% in early trade before paring losses, while the yuan currency in the offshore market briefly dipped nearly 0.1% against the US dollar after the news.

The Australian dollar, often see as a liquid proxy for China risk, also slipped.

One trader at a foreign bank in Shanghai said the spread between benchmark government bonds and those issued by SOEs in US dollars widened by 2-3 basis points.

"It's going to be quite negative in terms of sentiment, particularly at a time when China is looking to derisk the banking system, as well as at a time when there's going to be some potential restructuring of SOEs," said Vishnu Varathan, Asia head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank's Treasury division.

GROWTH TO SLOW

In March 2016, Moody's cut its outlook on China's ratings to negative from stable, citing rising debt and uncertainty about authorities' ability to carry out reforms and address economic imbalances.

Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded its outlook to negative in the same month. S&P's AA- rating is one notch above both Moody's and Fitch Ratings, leading to speculation among analysts that S&P could also downgrade soon.

Moody's has Japan at the same A1 rating China is now on.

"We understand the risk and the reason for downgrade but due to China being a unique system on its own closed capital account and strong government control over all important sectors - it can tolerate a higher debt level," said Edmund Goh, a Kuala Lumpur-based investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management.

Moody's has no specific timetable for re-visiting China's rating, but would monitor conditions on a regular basis, said Marie Diron, associate managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group.

More than two hours after the announcement from Moody's, no Chinese state media had published news about the downgrade.

The slowing economy has become an increasingly sensitive topic in China, with authorities directing mainland Chinese economists and journalists towards more positive messaging.

When Moody's cut its outlook on China in March 2016, former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said at the time the government didn't "care much" about it.

Lou said China understood rating agencies' concerns about problems such as local government debt, but the government had taken measures to address the issue and it didn't need to consult or seek support from the agencies.

Authorities have stepped up efforts over the last several months to curb debt and housing risks, and a raft of recent data has signalled a cooling in the economy, which grew a solid 6.9% in the first quarter.

China's potential economic growth was likely to slow towards 5% in coming years, but the cooldown is likely to be gradual due to expected fiscal stimulus, Moody's said.

Government-led stimulus has been a major driver of growth over recent years, but the pump-priming has also been accompanied by runaway credit growth and has created a mountain of debt - now standing at nearly 300% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Julian Evans-Pritchard, China Economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, said steps to resolve the debt overhang, such as debt-for-equity swaps at state-owned enterprises, were insufficient to deal with problem.

"As a result, it'€™s reached the point where the bad debt problem is just so large the government will have to step in to resolve it at some point and that obviously means at some point a sizeable increase in government debt," he said.

Moody's said it expects the government's direct debt burden to rise gradually towards 40% of GDP by 2018 and closer to 45% by the end of the decade.

A growing number of economists believe that a massive bank bailout may be inevitable in China as bad loans mount. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/05/24/moodys-downgrades-china/#beCEIm9uQ2jFztY0.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 25, 2017, 06:58:11 AM



穆迪下调中国评级至A1
財经发布於 2017年05月24日 • 最后更新 2017年05月24日 22时44分
穆迪下调中国评级至A1

434分享
(北京24日讯)国际评估机构--穆迪宣布,將中国的评级由Aa3下调至A1,震惊市场。

该评估机构指出,这反映出隨著中国潜在增速放缓,而整体经济的债务继续攀升,其预计中国的財政状况在未来几年会有所恶化。

穆迪也表示,在2018年底前,政府的直接债务负担与GDP之比將逐步升向40%,到2020年底时將接近45%。未来5年的潜在成长率將降至近5%的水平。


虽然如此,穆迪將中国评级展望由负面调整为稳定。

这是穆迪自1989年以来首次宣布下调中国的主权评级,置疑中国在去槓桿的同时能否保持经济增速。对此人民幣离岸市场曾一度出现不足百点的跳空下跌,但市场並未体现出明显的恐慌情绪,人民幣跌势转瞬即逝、並隨后迅速回弹。

市场普遍对此感到意外。而中国財政部隨后作出回应表示,穆迪下调中国评级是基於「顺周期」评级的不恰当方法。

中国財政部在穆迪下调中国主权信用评级后,发布有关负责人答记者的新闻稿指出,穆迪在一定程度上高估了中国经济面临的困难;但中国有望继续保持中高速成长將支撑债务风险防控。

新闻稿也指出,2016年中国政府债务风险总体可控,债务余额/GDP为36.7%,低於负债率60%的欧盟警戒线。此外,也声明,中国政府举债受到严格控制,债务规模將保持合理成长,因此,2018-2020年中国政府债务风险指標与2016年比不会发生大变化。

中国財政部也指,一些国际机构对中国法律制度规定缺乏必要的了解。並认为,穆迪所谓地方政府融资平台、国有企业等债务水平持续成长会增加政府或有债务的说法不成立。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on May 28, 2017, 06:59:11 PM



Currencies
Former HKMA chief Joseph Yam says China quite right to take a cautious approach on allowing the yuan to become freely traded
The next global financial crisis ‘could be even bigger than previous ones’, he adds, that’s why China must be cautious with its currency
PUBLISHED : Friday, 26 May, 2017, 4:36pm
UPDATED : Friday, 26 May, 2017, 10:53pm
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US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seen on a TV monitor as the one next to it shows the yen’s exchange rate against the US dollar, at a forex trading company in Tokyo on February 1. Photo: Reuters
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Joseph Yam Chi-kwong, former head of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), says the next global financial crisis could be even bigger than previous ones – and that’s part of the reason why China should not let its currency to be freely traded, but only allow it to be tradable via monitoring.
“In my opinion, the renminbi should not be freely convertible without monitoring, but the currency should be allowed to be tradable under appropriate reporting and monitoring,” he said on Friday.
He added it would only be safe and appropriate to allow people to convert large amounts of other currencies into yuan, if they report and declare the exact purpose of the usage to the authority, which should also then strictly enforce the use of the money.
“As an example, if someone reports he is to convert 1 billion yuan (US$145 million) to invest in the stock market and three months later he has not invested the money, the authority should order him to take the money out of the country,” Yam said.
Yam, who ran Hong Kong’s central bank from its creation in 1994 to 2009, and who acted as an adviser to incoming Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor during her election campaign, has a close working relationship with both the mainland authorities and The People’s Bank of China.

He is a strong supporter of China’s socialist-led market economy, which accepts more market opening up to the outside world under monitoring and controls.
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For someone like me, who has always believed in market forces, it [the government’s intervention in August 1998, to defend against currency speculators] felt like being betrayed by a friendJOSEPH YAM CHI-KWONG, FORMER HEAD OF HONG KONG MONETARY AUTHORITY
He says that’s how China has been able to weather the recent global financial crises, and achieve better economic performance than many western countries over the past 20 years.
“Please don’t misunderstand me. I still believe in market forces and Hong Kong will never have any capital controls under the Basic Law,” he said.
“But if you look back at the past twenty years, the Hong Kong stock and currency markets were hit hard by the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the Hong Kong government was forced to take market intervention in August 1998, to defend against speculators.
“For someone like me, who has always believed in market forces, it felt like being betrayed by a friend.”
The 2007/2008 financial crisis was, he added, rooted in speculative activities by Wall Street investment banks which introduced sub-prime and other complicated products to investors.
“That was a very bad, greedy culture which led investment banks to carry out their businesses with the sole purpose of benefitting themselves, not the public or their investors,” he added.
“For many freely traded currencies, 95 per cent of trades are done by speculators, with only 5 per cent done by those who need the currency for business purposes. This is not healthy.”
But Yam said the damaging speculative culture in the world’s biggest financial market has not changed, and the monetary easing policies in the US since 2008 have simply led to trillions of dollars flooding the markets.
“These problems, together with globalisation of economies, means the next financial crisis could be bigger than the previous one,” he said.
“Hong Kong needs to make sure its system is prepared for that, while China also needs to adopt a safe approach to open up its market and internationalise its currency.”
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as:
Yuan should not be freely traded: Yam
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 01, 2017, 12:14:08 PM



May 31, 2017
Qian Hai Life signals systemic risks in China’s financial sector – Will China insurance market crash?
Chinese insurers breached investment limits and took unnecessary risks, to the detriment of consumers, for profits.

Editorial

Consumers were only highlighted after a leak from an anonymous email

There was a leak from an anonymous email on the 15th May. Five sealed documents and other two documents showed how Qian Hai Life (Foresea Life) requested regulators for a reprieve from restrictions on selling new insurance products.

China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) had suspended Qian Hai Life from selling new insurance products on 5th December 2016 for 3 months. This is a punishment to Qian Hai’s aggressive moves into high-risk stock market. To make matters worse, in February, then-Chairman Yao Zhenhua was banned from working in the insurance industry for 10 years. Qian Hai had used insurance premiums to invest in the stock market beyond stipulated limits.

In 1Q 2017, Qian Hai life recorded 70% decline in premium income. To date, CIRC has yet to approve any of Qian Hai Life’s new products.

Qian Hai begged CIRC to restore their business, an act to save themselves?

Qian Hai almost begged CIRC to restore their business, saying that banning new products will cause greater harm to their customers and the insurance industry. It was reported that Qian Hai Life warned the CIRC in its communications about the possibility of a liquidity crunch triggering mass defaults.

In the documents, Qian Hai Life threatened CIRC that the total surrender value of Qian Hai’s insurance products will accumulate to RMB60 billion (US$8.7 billion). If the company is not able to reinstate their right to sell universal life products, there probably will be “mass disturbances” and “systematic and regional risks”. To repay the kindness of CIRC, Qian Hai promised that they will “coordinate with the CIRC and the government’s need to deal with Vanke’s procedures for changing the board of directors”. Qian Hai’s parent company Baoneng, a real estate giant became Vanke’s biggest shareholder, another real estate giant in China, in 2016.

Qian Hai Life recorded a negative cash inflow of RMB12.4 billion (US$1.8 billion) for the quarter, compared with a negative cash inflow of 1 billion yuan the previous quarter — when the ban went into effect, its solvency reports show. The company had recorded positive cash inflows in the first three quarters of 2016.

Qian Hai Life is not the only Chinese life insurer under regulatory scrutiny

Since late 2016, CIRC has penalised Soochow Life Insurance Co. Ltd., Huaxia Life Insurance Co. Ltd., Pramerica Fosun Life Insurance Co. Ltd. and Anbang Life Insurance Co. Ltd. for violating rules on selling wealth management-type products, while Evergrande Life Insurance Co. Ltd. has been punished for investing aggressively in China’s stock markets.

Chinese insurers may now outsource investments to avoid risking breaches

Some insurers may have decided to outsource investments altogether to avoid trouble. China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. agreed to an investment partnership with Manulife Asset Management, the first such tie-up for the Chinese insurer. The partnership is in line with China Life’s strategy to partner with overseas institutions to explore foreign investment opportunities, according to a statement by the company in Chinese.

May 31, 2017
A tale of two kings
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 05, 2017, 06:47:54 AM



中資大舉收購 日媒:北海道恐成中國“北海省”
 9172点阅   2017年6月04日
北海道的富田農場。(互聯網)
北海道的富田農場。(互聯網)
北海道有地要出售。《News PostSeven》
北海道有地要出售。《News PostSeven》
日本北海道四季優美,是知名的觀光熱點。但中資近年大舉收購北海道的森林,日媒憂北海道恐成中國“北海省”。



日本新聞網站《News PostSeven》日前報導,日本農林水產部4月公布的調查資料顯示,去年外資企業購買的日本森林面積達202公頃,是前年的3倍,多在北海道,且81%是被中國、台灣及香港人收購,北海道已快變成中國的北海省,令日本政界受到巨大衝擊。

日本眾議院維新會議員丸山穗高稱,不少收購日本土地的中資企業,乍看之下看不出來與中資有關,因經營者欄位多寫著日本人名字,但實際上是“空殼公司”。呼籲日本政府需要儘快制定相關法律,保護國土遭到外資收購。

北海道前議員小野寺秀稱,若不遏制中資收購北海道農地和水源地,該區的食品安全保障體系將崩潰。如果出現世界性糧食危機,被收購的土地所種出來之農作物或直接出口中國,“若再無相關措施,只能眼睜睜的看著廣大土地被中資買走。”。



他說:“沒有可以阻止的法律制度,繼續放任中國不斷侵食,北海道淪為中國北海省的日子恐怕不遠。”

日本《產經新聞》近期也報導,越來越多中國人到日本旅遊、移民,他們正在當地大手筆買地、買房。其中北海道更是熱點。


Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 06, 2017, 08:44:59 AM



China gaining influence over ASEAN while US influence dwindles
Posted by admin2
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China has wasted no time stepping up its audacious bid to exert more control over ASEAN following Donald Trump’s election as US president. Southeast Asian nations find themselves in an uncomfortable position.

By John Pennington

It did not take long for the impact of Trump’s election to reach Southeast Asia. The repeal of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the establishment of a warm accord with Xi Jinping to combat the threat of North Korea are moves that could have been designed specifically to push ASEAN nations into China’s orbit.

China needed no second invitation to take advantage. China continued its audacious bid to swallow them up and assert control over a disunited Southeast Asian bloc as ASEAN countries feel ignored or even abandoned by the US.

China is adopting a “divide and conquer” approach

China is instead using a “divide and conquer” approach in ASEAN. As a united front, ASEAN has bigger bargaining power than if they were dealing with China one at a time. They turned their attentions to bringing individual countries into their sphere of influence to break down the ties that make ASEAN strong. China employed bilateral diplomacy to smooth over relations to keep potential flashpoints under control.

China also committed significant investment and commitment to future partnerships. Closer ties mean those countries are heavily reliant on China and are unlikely to go against Beijing for fear of reprisals. In return for infrastructure and investment, China negotiated concessions. Unsure about what support ASEAN has from the US, there is “neither the stomach nor the means” to challenge China.

Chinese investment in Southeast Asia is significant

China’s increasing investment in ASEAN (US$ billion)


Source: China’s Economic Ties with ASEAN: A Country- by Country Analysis

In total, two-way investment between China and ASEAN since 1967 adds up to more than US$160 billion. China invested more than US$5 billion in Laos, US$18.5 billion in Myanmar, more than US$10 billion in Cambodia between 1994 and 2012 and a further US$3.7 billion since. Chinese companies control Cambodia’s power supply.
China is Thailand’s largest trading partner and second largest investor. The country has just approved the purchase of three submarines from China worth more than US$1 billion and is a recipient country of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative.

The promise of future investment helped turn the Philippines into an ally

A good example of China’s approach is the way that they turned the election of President Rodrigo Duterte into a success for themselves. Despite Duterte’s recent conversation with Trump, he decided to reinvigorate Sino-Filipino relations at the expense of his ties with Washington. By making that decision, Duterte gave China the opportunity they needed.

The promise of investment in his country – for the first time in five years – has ramifications beyond just his own borders. The Hague’s legal judgment in the Philippines’ favour against China’s claim to the South China Sea has been swept aside.

Proof of that came when, during his address as ASEAN chairman, he rowed back on keeping the pressure on China to respect the judgment. Duterte will cut a deal to ignore the judgment in exchange for financial support. With the US out of the picture, Beijing will now agree on the framework for a Code of Conduct.

ASEAN capitulation over the South China Sea is a huge win for China

Duterte’s actions undermine the other countries – Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand – with claims to the South China Sea and supports China. The other countries cannot stand up to China now that Duterte has effectively ceded the initiative. One of the parties having its own bilateral arrangement means the previous unilateral approach is no longer viable. Furthermore, a complete lack of US support or action in the area leaves ASEAN increasingly isolated.

China’s lobbying worked. “By any measure, this was a slam-dunk diplomatic victory for Beijing, which has sought to court Mr. Duterte by offering multibillion-dollar investments and the prospect of joint development deals in contested waters,” surmised Richard Javid Heydarian, a political science professor at De La Salle University in the Philippines.

For the moment, only Singapore and Vietnam do not appear to have moved any closer to Beijing. Instead, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong urged ASEAN nations to strike a balance between Beijing and Washington. Vietnam has long-standing good relations with the US and will host Trump at November’s APEC summit in Hanoi while Singapore is close to both China and the US.

One Belt, One Road and RCEP may now take centre stage


Sources: Reuters, Xinhua Finance Agency, South China Morning Post

ASEAN nations will now see China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) programme and its Regional Comprehensive Economic Plan (RCEP) as increasingly significant. Without the TPP to support them, they will now compete for investment that the One Belt, One Road programme can deliver.
Discussions over reviving or revising the TPP continue but OBOR offers some degree of certainty. Laos was promised US$6 billion to link its capital Vientiane with China’s Yunnan province by 2020. Work on the Singapore to Kunming line has started. China won the US$5.1 billion contract to build a 150-kilometre rail project in Indonesia.

However, for all the infrastructure benefits that OBOR will provide, the scheme would give China control of land and sea routes, further increasing its influence over the region. It puts ASEAN nations in a difficult position. They need Chinese infrastructure investment but can no longer rely on the US to act as a buffer. As a result, they lose bargaining power and influence.

It represents a fundamental shift. “Before, most Southeast Asian states wanted to benefit from Chinese regional economic initiatives and from American pushback against China,” said Malcolm Cook, a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. “The second part of this balance is now in question. Hence, the pressure to acquiesce to China diplomatically and on security issues is stronger,” he added.

ASEAN nations may end up as pawns in a bigger power game

While world leaders concentrate on North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, Southeast Asian nations risk becoming pawns in a bigger power game. It is a return to old-fashioned politics. Trump’s administration essentially gave China freedom to do as it pleased in the South China Sea, and by extension, ASEAN, because the US needed China to keep the pressure on North Korea.

Now Trump has removed the handbrake, the balance that Loong spoke about becomes much harder to strike. China is the more stable partner as uncertainty surrounds everything coming out of Washington. What trust can ASEAN place in Mike Pence’s assertion that the US, has “unwavering commitment” towards the region?

Yet, at the same time, ASEAN needs to find a way to keep the US onside. ASEAN may welcome recent US “freedom of navigation operations” in the South China Sea. As Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, said, “ASEAN is in a precarious position now with the concessions, accommodation and even appeasement with China. If China continues to be shrewd and takes ASEAN on another ride, then ASEAN will be much worse off.”
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 06, 2017, 08:51:46 AM



[Brief] The uneasy nonperforming loans in China may be the trigger for the next Asian financial crisis

TOPICS:BankLoan FraudNonperforming LoanNPL

JUNE 6, 2017
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Chinese banks may have reported lower nonperforming loan figures than expected. But what lies beneath could be a complicated system that hides the risks of a weakening financial system.

Editorial

Everyone is pretending not to see it, but the Chinese market has been unstable in recent years. Analysts have been sceptical about the reported low non-performing loan ratios “NPL” in recent years.

The NPL of listed Chinese banks for 2016 remained below 1.6%. While NPL increased over the last 5 years, Chinese NPLs were consistently healthier relative to other emerging nations.


Source: S&P
For the year 2016, China’s reported NPL was lower than Singapore. Many questions if the relatively low NPL levels resulted from reclassification of loans as special mention loans. Under the latter classification, special mention loans required fewer provisions than NPLs.

However, these classifications only mask the truth. In recession, these loans will default regardless of their classification. By then, listed banks will have to announce special provisions resulting in aggressively allowances and losses, unexpected.

The challenge is how Xi’s administration will handle this situation. As the central government combats outflow of capital and attempts to regain global confidence in the Chinese economy, one questions if the China Banking Regulatory Commission will work towards forcing banks to correct loan classification process.


Source: S&P
Based on a report by SNL, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd’s “ICBC” NPL of 1.6% was much lower than special mention loans of 4.5% of total loans. ICBC’s special mention loans increased by 2.5% from 2% in 2013. In the same report, Bank of China’s special mention loans grew by 3.1%, a startling figure that remains infrequently reported.

The option of auditing these reporting systems is a tougher one than to simply reengineer the classification process. Perhaps it is time to rethink the need for “special mention loan” classification?

Problem loans is also an issue for smaller Chinese commercial banks as they report default rates of more than 20%. In an FT report, analysts shared that debt levels in China are reaching “epidemic” levels.

BBVA economists Xia Le highlighted that risks in these rural banks are highest, insinuating that these banks will fall in the first instance of trouble.

It was reported in the same article that Liuzhou Bank suffered an unprecedented $4.9bn loan fraud. This amount was a third of the bank’s assets.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 10, 2017, 07:10:53 AM




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劲爆!!中国政府落实「中国身份证」让马来西亚出生的华裔均可申请!!
网络红人 2017-06-09 檢舉

 


劲爆!!!落实「中国身份证」马来西亚出生的华裔!

「不管在哪里都是中国人,中国永远是他们的娘家」 - 习近平



 
中国国务院决定在北京中关村启动「华裔卡」试点,立即引来海外华人热议。中国一直不承认双重国籍,而「华裔卡」的出现可绕开这个难题,以解决海外华人在中国生活、工作所遇到的困难,今后海外华人能享有普通中国公民所享有的权益,如投资、置业、子女入学等。

外籍华人在中国生活或工作时,会遇到不少麻烦。他们除了要为申请或延长签证而花费很多时间外,即使是在中国网购车票,或机票改期都会因为没有中国的身份证而无法进行。他们必须亲自到车站或者机场凭自己的护照才能办理。


 



 
持有「华裔卡」人士虽没有中国国籍,没有选举和被选举的政治权利,但是却能够享有普通中国公民所享有的其它权益,如投资、置业、开办银行账户、申请驾照、子女入学等。

不少海外华人大赞「华裔卡」的政策十分便利,更形容该政策为「真实承认双重国籍」,又指华裔卡的试点以及未来双重国籍的放开,有利于在全球化的今天,吸引海外华裔人才、资金、技术回到中国,并增强海外华人的凝聚力。 不过,更多海外华人还是希望当局能开放双重国籍。


 
据了解,中国从2004年以来对外籍人士实行「永久居留证」制度,也称中国「绿卡」。但由于设立的标准过高,控制过严,实际发放数量很少,年均发卡248张。

Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 12, 2017, 06:33:49 PM



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 12 June 2017 | MYT 5:06 PM
China Development Bank says Moody's China ratings cut has "limited impact"
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2016/06/01/09/37/corporate-news.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=ACAEABE345BFAA3AAEED42FCF09AE724894B17E8

 
BEIJING: China Development Bank Corp (CDB), one of the country's largest bond issuers, said Moody's Investors Service's downgrade of China's credit ratings has had "limited impact" on fundraising by Chinese companies overseas.

"Funds are relatively abundant in the international market and the supply of high-quality bonds falls short of demand," the state-owned bank said in a statement to Reuters.

"Yields on bonds by Chinese issuers are more attractive than those of other emerging market issuers."

Moody's last month downgraded China's credit ratings for the first time in nearly 30 years, to A1 from Aa3, reflecting its growing concern that China's financial strength is fading amid a ballooning debt pile

CDB, the biggest policy bank in the country, said that China's government has "effectively lowered debt risks" by implementing local government debt swaps, a de-leveraging campaign, and disposing non-performing loans in the banking sector.

The one-notch downgrade in long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings "lacked sufficient estimates about China's supply-side reforms and the impact of stabilising economic growth", CDB said in the statement.

Financial regulators in Hong Kong, Singapore and Europe so far haven't made "substantial adjustment" to regulatory requirements, such as high-quality liquidity assets (HQLA), following the Moody's ratings cut, CDB said. - Reuters

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Banking , Corporate News
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Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/06/12/china-development-bank-says-moodys-china-ratings-cut-has-limited-impact/#tJ64KZA7TvDR1Sdc.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 16, 2017, 06:56:38 AM





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主页 > 国际 > 国际新闻 > 低估中国技术创新美国必将付出代价
低估中国技术创新
美国必将付出代价
948点看 2017年6月15日
 
6中国7亿人每天用移动网络做海量支付,这意味着海量信息。

据英国广播公司(BBC)网站14日报道,中国不仅在电子产品制造方面奋起直追,并且已经在移动支付以及物联网等许多方面领先。


中国的科技巨头华为说,去年12月华为手机销量超过了苹果。

对此许多评论说,这足以令西方竞争者警醒。

此前一段时间里,中国一度被当成仿造西方市场各种产品的技术“山寨大国”,但美国电视网CNBC发表评论说,这种情况正在发生变化。

发明专利数量突破百万

中国智囊学者胡鞍钢表示,中国技术创新正在经历从局部赶超到全面赶超的过程,去年,中国技术创新方面的积累存量实现了质的飞跃,“国内有效发明专利拥有量”首次突破百万,成为继美国和日本之后世界上第三个国内发明专利拥有量超过百万件的国家。

中国欧盟商会最近对欧洲在华公司做了一项调查,60%的在华欧盟公司认为在2020年前中国公司会缩小同欧洲的创新差距,这个报告提醒欧洲公司要小心中国的技术创新挑战。 报告说,这种创新最有可能发生在服务业,在工业界的创新突破需要更长时间。

根据调查,近半数在中国的欧洲公司认为他们的业务在2016年遇到更多困难,而其中70%的公司都是在服务业和建筑业的公司,但在航空和宇航以及民航业的欧洲公司则认为在中国的业务运营并没有大改变。 报道称,中国的技术创新,特别是在电子商务和网络技术方面令外部观察者印象深刻。

CNBC科技通讯记者阿尔琼·克尔珀尔称,除了具有百度、华为、京东商城这类大型技术公司,中国的先进创新还体现在新技术平台运用和客户消费方式上面。

《纽约时报》专栏作者托马斯·弗里德曼认为,美国在创新方面低估了中国,除了中国社会广泛使用无现金支付令人震惊,中国在互联网数据和物联网方面的创新和发展也令人印象深刻。

“在互联网大数据和物联网时代,中国7亿人每天用移动网络做海量支付,这意味着海量信息,搜集这些信息又有助于把握潮流,并能刺激新的人工智能业务的发展。” 弗里德曼称,美国往往把中国的增长归咎于不平等贸易做法,低估了中国的技术创新,美国会为此付出代价。


中国电信商将重金研发5G通讯系统,将领先全球。

中国电信商砸7658亿
建全球最大5G网络

中国三大电信运营商在5G基础设施上的总投入在7年内预计将达到1800亿美元(下同,约7658亿令吉),远远超出2013至2020年他们在4G网络上估计1170亿美元的投入。

据香港《南华早报》12日刊登题为“中国将斥资1800亿美元建全球最大5G移动网络”的报道,杰富瑞投资银行证券分析师爱迪生·李说,这意味着中国移动、中国联通和中国电信的总资本开支相比它们在4G网络上的总投入增长大约48%。

报道称,这也将超过日本的支出,日本在同样的7年内的5G网络支出预计将为460亿美元。

李说:“随着全部三大电信运营商可能从2019年开始投入积极建设,5G网络对中国创新型客户服务和企业服务的影响将是巨大的。”

标志开始新时代

据全球移动通信系统协会说,作为移动通信的最新发展,5G网络将标志着一个新时代的开始,在这个时代网络将适应应用软件的发展,而功能将严格按照用户需求定制。

负责监督制定5G技术IMT-2020标准的联合国机构国际电信联盟表示,即将推出的通用规范将支持每平方公里100万个互联设备、1毫秒延迟以及数据包从一个点到另一个点的时间量、更高的能效和频谱效率,以及高达每秒20吉比特(GB)的峰值数据下载速度。

报道称,作为世界最大移动网络运营商的中国移动3月份宣布从明年开始在中国主要城市建设试点5G网络,并在2020年推出全面的商业服务。

李说,中国移动运营商在5G网络上预计更高的资本支出将受到一系列因素的推动。他说,5G网络最初将在3-5千兆赫波段上,这需要更多的基站以提供与目前的4G网络同样的覆盖范围。

此外,中国三大运营商预计都将迅速推动全国覆盖,其中中国移动很可能在2021年实现这一目标。

杰富瑞投资银行预计,到2022年中国将有5.883亿5G用户,占当年全国手机总用户数的39.9%。

李说:“中国主要的互联网公司,如百度、阿里巴巴和腾讯,将率先在新的5G网络上推出基于4K和8K视频以及增强现实和虚拟现实技术的先进客户服务。”


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Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on June 21, 2017, 06:35:08 AM



周小川:防金融危机
中国不容高杠杆低资本呆账
45点看 2017年6月20日
 
周小川

(陆家嘴20日讯)中国央行行长周小川周二表示,金融不稳定,往往会出大乱子。


要防金融危机,首先要保证金融机构的健康性,高杠杆、低资本、不良贷款等现象均不得宽容。

周小川是在出席2017陆家嘴论坛并发表主旨演讲时,做出上述表述。

中国经历了多年的经济高增长。在增长放缓后,许多之前高增长掩盖的风险逐渐暴露,包括不良贷款、资金空转等,在此背景下,中国当局强调把防范金融风险放到更重要的位置。而推进去杠杆,引导资金流向实体经济是其中一个重要方面。

周小川称,不开放、不竞争往往纵容了低标准。

周小川表示,现在,国内很多金融机构都已经“走出去”,适应了国际竞争,特别是风险管理、定价、反洗钱都有了实质性变化。

已有五家金融机构跻身全球系统重要性金融机构,成为资本金充足、经营稳健的市场化经营主体。

同时,金融市场的发展和健康化已受到国际债市、新兴市场股票指数机构的关注。这些均说明,金融服务业是竞争性服务业,受益于对外开放,还要进一步扩大开放。

Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 17, 2017, 11:39:28 AM



Business NewsHome > Business > Business News
Monday, 17 July 2017 | MYT 10:22 AM
China second quarter GDP grows 6.9% year on year, beats expectations
image: http://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2017/07/17/02/25/china-gdp.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=1DBD67AAD905DF0AA0A33B62BB26F6F6587540AA
A general view of a shopping mall under construction in Chongqing, China July 13, 2017. - Reuters
A general view of a shopping mall under construction in Chongqing, China July 13, 2017. - Reuters
 
BEIJING: China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, faster than expected and in line with the first quarter's growth.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8 percent in the April-June quarter, slightly slower than the previous quarter's robust 6.9 percent pace.

The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5 percent in 2017, slightly lower than last year's actual 6.7 percent, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.

Many analysts expect the world's second-largest economy

to lose steam later in the year as policy measures to rein in red-hot housing prices and a rapid build-up in debt take a greater toll on growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June grew 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter, compared with growth of 1.3 percent in January-March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

Analysts had expected quarterly growth would quicken to 1.7 percent. - Reuters
TAGS / KEYWORDS:
Economy , Markets

Read more at http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2017/07/17/china-second-quarter-gdp-grows-6dot9-percent-year-on-year-beats-expectations/#0wJXjEpQEbY4wwTO.99
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 17, 2017, 12:32:18 PM




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中国次季GDP增长6.9%胜预期
中国上海
財经 最后更新 2017年07月17日 11时54分
中国次季GDP增长6.9%胜预期

0分享
中国国家统计局週一公佈,2017年次季国內生產总值(GDP)较上年同期增长6.9%,与一季度持平,胜於市场预期。

统计局公佈的数据还显示,第二季度GDP环比增长1.7%。

《华尔街日报》报导,经济分析员预期第二季度中国经济同比增长6.8%。

今年一季度中国GDP较上年同期增长6.9%,高於市场预期,並创出六个季度以来新高。

继续阅读,请往下滑

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2016年中国GDP增长6.7%。中国政府设定的当年GDP增长目標为6.5%-7%。

2015年中国GDP增长6.9%,为25年来最低年度增速。

2017年中国政府设定的GDP增长目標为6.5%左右,並要求在实际工作中爭取更好结果。
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on July 18, 2017, 12:15:24 PM



Highlight
China is said to tell banks to lower returns on wealth products
Bloomberg
/
Bloomberg

July 18, 2017 11:52 am MYT
-A+A
SHANGHAI (July 18): China’s banking regulator told some lenders to lower the rates they offer on wealth-management products, people familiar with the matter said, as officials move to reduce financial risks and stimulate the economy.

Banks, including some big lenders, received the order from the China Banking Regulatory Commission earlier this month, said the people, asking not to be identified as they are not authorized to speak publicly. The requirement applies to on-balance sheet wealth-management products, known as WMPs, according to one of the people.

Banks have lifted yields on wealth-management products to the highest level in at least 17 months, with returns reaching an annualized 4.66% by the end of June, data from Chengdu-based PY Standard showed. That has resulted in higher costs for a key source of funding for lending and investment, at a time when the nation’s benchmark one-year deposit rate stood at 1.5%.

The CBRC didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on September 14, 2017, 01:52:24 PM





China's economy cools again
Bloomberg
/
Bloomberg

September 14, 2017 13:31 pm MYT
-A+A
THE pace of China’s economic expansion unexpectedly cooled further last month after a lackluster July, as factory output, investment and retail sales all slowed.

Key Points

Industrial output rose 6.0% from a year earlier in August, versus a median projection of 6.6% and July’s 6.4%. That’s the slowest pace this year.

Retail sales expanded 10.1% from a year earlier, versus a projection of 10.5% and 10.4% in July, also the slowest reading in 2017.

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 7.8% in the first eight months of the year over the same period in 2016, compared with a forecast 8.2% rise. That’s the slowest since 1999.

Big Picture

The continued cooling of the world’s second-largest economy suggests that efforts to rein in credit expansion and reduce excess capacity are hitting home, ahead of the key 19th Party Congress in October. Still, producer-price inflation and a manufacturing sentiment gauge both exceeded estimates earlier this month, signaling some resilience.

The Shanghai Composite Index reversed earlier gains to fall 0.2%.

Economist Takeaways

"Today’s data shows that the economy clearly already peaked in the first half of this year," said Larry Hu, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities Ltd in Hong Kong. "Recently both property and exports are slowing down and that’s why the whole economy is slowing."

"Regulatory tightening in the financial sector is putting a squeeze on highly indebted firms reliant on shadow bank financing," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. "And officials are unlikely to take their foot off the regulatory brakes any time soon. Growth therefore looks set to weaken further into year end, as regulators step up their campaign to rein in shadow banking."

"That’s still on track to a gradual moderation," Chang Jian, chief China economist at Barclays Plc in Hong Kong, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. "The government has been closing capacity, especially those that don’t meet environmental standards, and enforcement this year has been much stricter in the run-up to the 19th Party Congress."

Bloomberg Intelligence

"August’s activity data points to momentum in China’s economy starting to ebb," Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen wrote in a report. "The economy faces significant headwinds, with a continued moderate slowdown expected into the final months of the year and beyond. Slowing growth is also an early test of the government’s commitment to deleveraging."

The Details

Output of cement, coking coal fell by 3.7% and 5.3% respectively
Production of new-energy vehicles rose by 56.4% in August, after climbing 48.6% in July
Steel production rose to a record
Property development investment rose 7.9% from a year earlier in the first eight months
Private fixed asset investment increased 6.4% from a year earlier in the first eight months
Economic fundamentals haven’t changed in the short term and property development investment remains stable, NBS spokeswoman Liu Aihua said at a briefing
August surveyed jobless rate in 31 cities remains below 5%, Liu said
Infrastructure investment slowed to 19.8% in the first eight months, from 20.9% in the first seven months
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 01, 2017, 07:19:23 PM




Xi: Study capitalism but keep Marxism
ASEAN/EAST ASIA
Sunday, 1 Oct 2017

BEIJING: Communist Party members should study contemporary capitalism but must never deviate from Marxism, Chinese President Xi Jinping said, offering a clear signal there will be no weakening of party control weeks ahead of a key Congress opening.

Speaking at a study session of the Politburo, one of the party’s elite ruling bodies, Xi said that while times are changing and society is developing, the basic tenets of Marxism remain true, state news agency Xinhua said on Friday.

“If we deviate from or abandon Marxism, our party would lose its soul and direction,” Xi said.

“On the fundamental issue of upholding the guiding role of Marxism, we must maintain unswerving resolve, never wavering at any time or under any circumstances.”

Xi said the party should better integrate the basic tenets of Marxism with the “reality of contemporary China and learn from the achievements of other civilisations to create and develop Marxism”, Xinhua said.

“Xi also asked Party members to study contemporary capitalism, its essence and patterns,” the report added, without elaborating.

China has transformed its economy since it began landmark reforms in the late 1970s, and is now the world’s second largest economy.

Private firms are now supported and encouraged but the state-owned sector remains a major driver of growth and investment, though some industries like iron and steel are suffering from worryingly high levels of over-capacity.

Xi said the party must continuously develop socialism with Chinese characteristics, continuously enhance China’s comprehensive national strength and fully demonstrate the advantages of China’s socialist system.

This month’s party Congress, which opens on Oct 18, will see Xi further cementing his grip on power and usher in a new generation of senior leaders. — Reuters

TAGS / KEYWORDS:
China
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 01, 2017, 07:22:53 PM




时事聚焦丨《大国风云》第一章:“三打”特朗普·乱放“嘴炮”,被多国群殴!

2017-09-30 棋胜 新闻早餐

“三打”特朗普
来自新闻早餐
00:0008:36

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点击上方音频收听
2016年11月,美国共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普在总统选举中获胜,当选为美国第45任总统。特朗普是个口无遮拦的人,什么话都敢说,“大嘴”给他带来无数的争议,也把他送上了总统的宝座。当选总统以后,特朗普丝毫没有收敛,在外交中继续使用他的“嘴上功夫”,这不,还没正式上任他就提出了一个令人震惊的观点,“一中”政策在谈判之列,很快,他的麻烦来了……

作者:棋胜老师,资深宏观经济研究专家,国际问题专家,THLDL咨询集团创始合伙人。

大国风云
(一)“三打”特朗普
 



1、大国的特质

分析国际形势,首先要看背景。任何一件大事的发生都有其国际背景,如果不把背景搞明白,光凭新闻报道的那点内容很难分析出有价值的东西。

举个例子,两国领导人会谈,随便一聊就是几个小时,会谈的内容如果全部用文字写出来,怎么也有几万字,可新闻报道一般不超过两千字,仅凭这点新闻报道能分析出会谈的全貌吗?不可能的,太多有价值的东西根本没有报道。

那么,应该如何解决这个问题呢?背景分析。只要知道了局势发展的背景,很多藏在新闻文字之下的内容完全可以推理出来。举个例子,2008年6月,越南爆发金融危机,越共总书记紧急访华,他来干什么?肯定是求援的,这是当时越南面临的形势决定的,不用看新闻报道也能猜出来。

要做背景分析,必须先清楚各国的实力和现状。为了便于以后的分析,先为大家科普一下这方面的知识,这是时事分析的起点。

在这个世界上,国家根据实力可以分为三类:全球性大国,地区性大国,小国。全球性大国指的是具备全球影响力的国家,地区性大国是在本地区具有相当影响力的国家,小国没有什么影响力,只能跟随大国的脚步起舞。

那么,什么样的国家算是全球性大国呢?

现在是工业化大生产时代,资源和能源是生产的基础,只要能控制住大部分资源和能源就能控制所有的国家,巧妇难为无米之炊嘛。发展经济需要的资源种类很多,在地球上的分布也极为分散,想垄断很困难,能源就不一样了,种类不多,最有价值的只有石油一种。石油的主产区在中东地区,探明储量占全球总储量的60%以上,如此一来,只要能把中东地区的石油控制住了,就能控制全世界,所以,对中东事务的掌控能力和发言权就成为衡量一个国家算不算是全球性大国的核心标准。

为了控制中东地区的石油,各大国都在中东拼死搏杀。二战以前,英国和法国平分中东,二战以后,美国和苏联联手把英法两国挤出中东,开始了新一轮两强争霸,苏联解体以后,美国一超独大,开始执行独霸中东的战略。海湾战争以后,美国在中东地区只剩下三个敌人,伊拉克,伊朗和叙利亚,只要能把这三个国家拿下来,美国的目标就可以实现了。非常巧合的是,伊朗和叙利亚都是什叶派国家,伊拉克也是什叶派人口占多数,如果再加上黎巴嫩真主党和也门胡赛武装这两支什叶派武装力量,就是一条完整的“什叶派之弧”。彻底粉碎这条“什叶派之弧”,全面控制中东,就是美国全球战略的核心内容,从克林顿到小布什,再到奥巴马和特朗普,美国的目标从来没有改变过,改变的只是手段。
 


2、大国实力的消涨

下面分析一下世界各主要国家的实力变化情况,先看美国,如果从“9•11”事件算起的话,美国的全球战略经历了四个阶段:

第一阶段,进攻。2001年,美国占领阿富汗,2003年,美国占领伊拉克,同年在格鲁吉亚颜色革命成功,2004年,美国在乌克兰颜色革命成功,2005年,美国在吉尔吉斯斯坦颜色革命成功,不过,美国在乌兹别克斯坦的颜色革命失败了,这次失败对美国来说是个转折点,攻势从此戛然而止。在这个阶段,伊拉克是美国全球战略的战略重心。

第二阶段,相持。美国在乌兹别克斯坦失利以后,中俄两国开始联手对抗美国,在2005年的上海合作组织峰会上伊朗被吸收为上合观察员,上合要求美军撤出在中亚的军事基地,美军只好从乌兹别克斯坦打包走人。2006年6月,伊朗核问题六方会谈成形,美国的全球战略遭到强力阻击。2007年初,小布什增兵三万绥靖伊拉克局势,无奈次贷危机随即爆发,小布什不得不把这三万人又撤了出来。2008年,美国爆发金融危机,实在没钱支撑美军在伊拉克继续烧钱,只得开始从伊拉克全面撤军。2010年6月,联合国通过伊朗核问题1929号决议,美国在伊朗核问题的较量中遭遇重创,从此放弃了通过联合国制裁伊朗的思路,转而逼迫韩国、日本和欧盟等盟友对伊朗进行制裁。2010年8月,美国从伊拉克撤出全部战斗部队,美国的“反恐”战略走向失败。在这个阶段,伊朗是美国全球战略的战略重心。

第三阶段,防守。2011年5月,拉登被杀,美国开始从阿富汗撤军,从此以后,美国全球战略的重心变成了叙利亚,叙利亚内战模式启动。让奥巴马失望的是,他花了整整一个任期居然没能搞定这个小不点,到他下台的时候叙利亚居然在土耳其和俄罗斯的担保下停火了,真是气煞寡人。2013年秋天,习总书记提出“一带一路”战略,奥巴马打开地图一看,阿富汗正处于“一带”中的桥头堡位置,如果美军从阿富汗全部撤出“一带一路”将畅通无阻,为了干扰“一带一路”美军必须楔在阿富汗,奥巴马只好调整2014年从阿富汗完成撤军的计划,改成对阿富汗进行少量增兵。青山遮不住,毕竟东流去,加上这仨瓜俩枣就想改变阿富汗局势吗?如果改变不了不就是多一点炮灰吗?2015年7月,伊朗核问题达成协议,各方解除对伊朗的制裁,美国在伊朗核问题的较量中彻底失败。

第四阶段,溃败。现在回头看看那条“什叶派之弧”,伊朗成为中东地区最强势的地区大国,伊拉克是什叶派亲伊朗政权,如果萨达姆还活着,至少是反伊朗的,叙利亚的阿萨德政权摇而不倒,什叶派反美势力不但没有削弱,反而变强了,这些年的仗不是白打了吗?小布什在位的时候,美国对中东事务的影响力最大,想打谁就打谁,奥巴马上台以后变成了想骂谁就骂谁,现在特朗普当家,想吓谁就吓谁。

在中东地区有影响力的地区大国有六个:以色列,埃及,伊朗,土耳其,沙特,叙利亚,其他国家都是打酱油的。小布什时期,以色列、埃及、土耳其和沙特全部亲美,伊朗和叙利亚都被美国压得很惨,伊拉克被美军占领,美国完全掌控着中东局势。

现在,埃及已经跟美国离心离德,土耳其跟美国面和心不和,伊朗一不高兴就跳着脚骂美国,叙利亚更是与美国不共戴天,只有以色列和沙特还没有抛弃美国,但是,沙特是个没有能力办大事的国家,对付个胡塞武装都打成那个烂样子,别的事情就不要指望它了,以色列是个识时务的国家,看到美国衰弱以后也开始给自己找后路,在巴勒斯坦出手远不如以前强硬,中东局势对美国而言已经完全失控。

美国在中东辛苦了16年,什么都没有得到,除了高筑的债台和低迷的经济以外,这就是美国的现实。特朗普的竞选口号是“让美国再次伟大”,不就是说美国已经不伟大了吗?特朗普在大选中获得304票,希拉里只有227票,优势非常明显,如果特朗普的“大嘴”不能引起美国人共鸣的话,这是不可能做到的。很多美国人在大声反对特朗普,有没有支持他呢?当然有,只不过支持他的人不爱出声,大选之前进行民意调查的结果无一不是希拉里大胜,结果呢?希拉里被那群不爱发声的人给选下去了。

2017年1月20日,特朗普在就职演说中这样描述了现在的美国:“城市中的母子深陷于贫穷之中,废弃的工厂像墓碑一样遍布全美,学校充斥着权钱交易,年轻可爱的学生无法得到应有的知识,犯罪、帮派和毒品夺走了太多美国人的生命,也夺走了美国太多未能发挥的潜力……”在特朗普眼里,美国是一个哀鸿遍野的国家,他是在危言耸听吗?当然不是。特朗普是一个72岁的美国老人,又是美国的总统,他对美国的了解不比任何人少,他上台以后为什么会折腾出那么多稀奇古怪的花样来?美国的现状把他逼的。诚如特朗普在就职演说中所说的,他要夺回属于美国的一切!

美国这些年经历了一起一落,俄罗斯的情况也差不多。2005年以前,俄罗斯的全球战略以防守为主,乌兹别克颜色革命以后,俄罗斯开始与中国联手反击美国。2008年,俄格冲突爆发,俄军支解格鲁吉亚,事先信誓旦旦要支援格鲁吉亚的美军没敢采取任何行动,格鲁吉亚总统萨卡什维利情绪失控,当着亿万电视观众的面在镜头前嚼起了自己的领带,成为全球笑柄。2010年,俄罗斯在乌克兰反颜色革命成功,亲俄的亚努科维奇上台,普京在独联体国家再下一城,只可惜,普京的好日子到此为止。2011年,俄罗斯在中东地区的唯一盟友叙利亚开始内乱,普京却无力帮助巴沙尔稳定形势。2014年,亚努科维奇下台,普京被迫出兵克里米亚,乌克兰内战爆发,但是,接踵而来的美欧制裁和油价爆跌把俄罗斯经济打入萧条之中,卢布崩盘,俄罗斯开始过苦日子。“伊斯兰国”崛起以后,叙利亚政府军难以抗衡,为了保住自己的大国地位俄罗斯不得不在2015年9月咬着牙出兵空袭“伊斯兰国”,明明没钱了,还得花钱打仗,这不是要人命吗?进入2017年,俄罗斯的联邦稳定基金花完了,国家经济稳定都成了大问题,实事求是的说,普京的日子远比特朗普艰难。

俄罗斯不好过,欧盟还不如俄罗斯。美国入侵伊拉克以前,法国和德国坚持反对美国出兵,但它们挡不住,为了不让美国独吞中东,它们就把伊朗核问题搞了出来,干扰美国的“反恐”战略,伊核三方会谈开始。借着三方会谈的台面和中国、俄罗斯的呼应,美国不得不在伊拉克问题上连续作出让步,先把主权移交给伊拉克临时政府,后来又选出了亲伊朗的什叶派政权。2007年,次贷危机爆发,美国被迫重启巴以和谈,与欧盟分权。2008年,科索沃独立,法国总统萨科齐推出“地中海联盟”计划,开始挑战美元霸权,2009年,《里斯本条约》通过,欧盟政治一体化加速,只可惜,欧盟的好日子到此为止。2010年,希腊债务危机爆发,“地中海联盟”计划停止,欧盟挑战美国只坚持了两年,昙花一现。2011年,“欧猪五国”债务危机全面爆发,重压之下的欧盟只好支持美国推翻巴沙尔政权。2015年,难民危机爆发,恐怖袭击也开始在欧元区国家轮番上演,欧盟开启内乱模式。2016年,英国脱欧,欧盟走上解体的道路。

再说一下日本。日本不是一个全球性大国,只能算是个地区性大国,它对中东事务没有任何发言权。日本经济最繁荣的时候是上世纪80年代,“广场协议”以后日本经济被攻击,1991年经济泡沫崩盘,克林顿上台以后继续推高日元汇率,一直到1995年5月。昂贵的日元摧毁了日本企业的竞争力,日本企业为了活下去只好逃离日本到海外设厂,东南亚成为日本最重要的海外制造业基地,日本经济全面空心化。1997年,东南亚金融危机爆发,当时的东南亚已是一片日元区,就这么悄无声息地被美国摧毁了,日本用日元计价的GDP最高的一年就在1997年,从此以后,日本经济一蹶不振。在地区事务层面上,朝鲜核问题刚刚开始闹的时候,日本政府还有一点发言权,金融危机爆发以后,日本人说话就没人听了,现在朝鲜时不时地往日本人头上发射导弹,日本军方根本不敢拦截,不过还好,日本民众情绪稳定。
 


3、进击的中国
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 01, 2017, 07:23:55 PM




3、进击的中国

美国、俄罗斯、欧盟和日本全都在走下坡路,一个比一个惨,从一个胜利走向另一个胜利的国家也就只有中国了。中国这些年都是干了什么事呢?我们按地区盘点一下。

朝鲜半岛。半岛局势特别有意思,小布什刚上台那会儿,把朝鲜列为“邪恶轴心”国家,后来又说朝鲜是“暴政前哨”,威胁要对朝鲜进行先发制人的核打击,只要金正日稍微让美国有点不满意,美国就放话说已经制定好了对朝鲜的作战计划。十年以后,金正恩上台,开始为他爹报仇,不仅威胁美国说要用核弹毁了白宫,还制定好了打击关岛的作战计划。幸亏当年小布什没说要解放朝鲜,不然的话金元帅非得号召朝鲜人民军把美国那帮红脖子给解放了不可。

从朝鲜的表现可以很明显地看出来,半岛局势经历了两个阶段:2003年8月,朝鲜核问题六方会谈第一次会议在北京举行,中美相持,不过我们是主场。2006年10月,朝鲜进行第一次核试验,核试验以前美国给朝鲜划下红线,不准爆,朝鲜的未来跟核弹不能共存,朝鲜不相信,就试了一下,发现是可以共存的;美国又给朝鲜划下第二条红线,不准进行核扩散,2013年2月,伊朗方面传出消息,他们以数千万美元的代价交换到了参观朝鲜核试验的机会,美国的红线再次被踩;2017年4月,美国明确表示,希望和平解决朝核问题,不会为朝鲜设定红线,也不寻求冲突或政权更替。完了,红线踩没了。

钓鱼岛。钓鱼岛问题是中日关系的代表性问题。2010年以前,中国从不在钓鱼岛问题上主动跟日本发生摩擦,2010年9月,钓鱼岛撞船事件发生,中国渔政船开始对钓鱼岛进行不定期巡航,中日角力开始。2012年9月,日本政府把钓鱼岛国有化,中国随即公布钓鱼岛及部分附属岛屿坐标,向联合国提交东海部分海域大陆架划界案,并且全面加强了在钓鱼岛的军事力量布署,定期巡航钓鱼岛。2013年11月,中国划定东海防空识别区,对钓鱼岛实现了实际控制,从那以后,中国军舰开始绕着日本划圈,还时不时地进日本领海逛两圈。不能不承认,日本人的适应能力特别强,外务省很快就习惯了中国的做法,很多时候连抗议二字都懒得说了。

为什么钓鱼岛撞船事件发生在2010年?因为那一年中国的GDP超过日本,中国人做事都是有计划的。同样的道理,大家可以感觉到的中国在外交上明显强硬是从2014年开始的,为什么是这一年呢?去查查中美两国按购买力平价计算的GDP就知道了。

南海。中国在南海动手比钓鱼岛还要晚一点。2012年4月,黄岩岛事件爆发,中国开始在南海发力。为什么是2012年?因为这一年“辽宁号”航母交付使用,南海的很多岛屿离大陆太远,没有航母很难实际控制,所以我们只能等待,无论做什么事情都需要条件不是?黄岩岛事件爆发以后,中国成立三沙市,开始在南海填岛。2016年10月,菲律宾总统杜特尔特访华,南海的反华急先锋反水了,三个月后,美国总统特朗普宣布退出TPP,美国“重返东南亚”失败。2017年8月,“南海行为准则”框架在东盟外长会议上通过,中国成为南海的主人。

“南海行为准则”的全称应该叫做“中国规定的南海行为准则”,以前相关国家不愿意接受,就在美国的挑拨下找中国的麻烦,经过一番沧海桑田般的填岛工程以后,这些国家发现,中国居然具备了大自然才有的移山填海的神力,于是决定向大自然低头,接受这个行为准则。

台海。从李登辉到阿扁,台独分子一直在给北京找麻烦,搞得北京很被动。2005年3月,中国出台《反分裂国家法》,给台独分子划下红线,台独必打,当时美国的军事力量全都被陷伊拉克和阿富汗动不了,实在没有能力保护台湾,只好安排连(战)宋(楚瑜)登陆,缓和两岸关系。2006年,中国加入伊核六方会谈,美国为了牵制中国,再次激化台湾问题,一直到2008年“3·22”入联公投,中国以巨大的战争决心压住了台独分子的冒险之举,金融危机爆发以后,两岸实现“大三通”,台海局势全面缓和。“英文菜菜子”上台以后重新开始挑事,结果被收拾得不轻。2016年12月,轰6-K绕台飞行一周,据外媒报道,六爷当时带了核弹。过去江湖上一直有“宁可台湾不长草”的传言,看来并非空穴来风,六爷绕台之后,台独分子就老实多了。

中国的周边局势关乎稳定,要成为全球性大国还得在中东努力才行。中国在中东都是干了什么呢?一起看一下。

2006年6月,中国加入伊朗核问题六方会谈,再次成为世界级玩家。四年以后,联合国安理会通过1929号决议,美国放弃通过安理会制裁伊朗,迫使美国改变计划的国家正是中国。从这时起,每次伊核谈判之前美国人一定要先跟中国沟通,只要中国不点头,伊核会谈肯定没有进展。

2012年3月,叙利亚各方宣布,接受联合国特使安南提出的“叙利亚问题六点建议”,实现停火,安南的“六点建议”是中国提出的“叙利亚问题六点主张”的翻版,促成这次停火的也是中国,当时朝鲜在半岛上玩命地折腾,奥巴马受不了,就求中国帮忙压一压,作为交换条件,叙利亚就停火了。在这个世界上谁能管得了朝鲜?在中国不想管的时候,谁都管不了。这次停火标志着中国具备了掌控叙利亚局势的能力。

叙利亚停火以后,中国就转身去忙黄岩岛和钓鱼岛的事情去了,叙利亚是俄罗斯的地盘,我们不能越俎代疱不是?中国这边刚一撒手,那边胡拉镇惨案就发生了,叙利亚重启战争模式。俄罗斯真是没实力了,自己的小兄弟都保护不了,你看谁敢动朝鲜?

在叙利亚问题上,中国和俄罗斯的立场稍有差别,俄罗斯是死保阿萨德政权,如果逊尼派的人上了台俄罗斯在中东的影响力就归零了,中国不是这样,逊尼派跟中国的关系也不差,中国要阻止的是西方国家直接出手颠覆阿萨德政权,如果是叙利亚人民抛弃阿萨德政权,中国不会阻止,中国在联合国七次投出否决票,只是为了阻止西方国家出手颠覆阿萨德政权。不准大国干涉中国友好国家的内政,这是中国的规矩。

2015年7月,联合国解除对伊朗的制裁,伊朗总统鲁哈尼特意对中国表示感谢。一个月后,苏伊士运河扩修成功,习总书记派特使参加了新运河的开通仪式。这条运河的工期原定三年,总统塞西下令,一年之内必须完成,工程就提前完成了。塞西为什么要这么着急地搞这个工程呢?对接“一带一路”的中国是苏伊士运河的最大使用国。工程是提前完成了,费用却翻了倍,为了跟中国拉关系塞西付出的代价不小。新运河开通以后,塞西受邀来京,参加“9·3”大阅兵,中埃关系,可见一斑。埃及原本是美国在中东地区的第三号盟友,仅次于以色列和沙特,穆巴拉克和穆尔西先后倒台以后,埃及政坛上的人,除了反美的,就是更反美的,美国最擅长的就是给自己制造敌人,这个绝活一般人学不会。

2016年11月,中国和伊朗签署共同防御协议,设立总参谋部联合委员会,伊朗成为中国继朝鲜和巴基斯坦之后的第三个铁杆盟友。

中国在中东干到今天,影响力到底有多大呢?我们来盘点一下:

伊朗是中国的铁杆,坚决反美;叙利亚阿萨德政权为了能够存在下去,不得不坚决反美;土耳其和埃及都在努力向中国靠拢,跟美国面和心不和;沙特和以色列是美国的铁杆,但这两个国家一直在努力跟中国发展关系,以色列跟中国的自贸谈判已经进行到第二轮了,沙特跟中国的关系比以色列还要好一点;伊拉克受控于伊朗和美国,跟中国的关系也不错,中国从伊拉克拿到的大油田最多,“美国打伊拉克是为了石油,最后获利的却是中石油”这是不争的事实。在中东的六个地区大国当中,美国只剩下两个铁杆,另外四个关系都不好;中国有一个铁杆,五个好朋友;俄罗斯只有叙利亚一个铁杆,跟伊朗和埃及的关系还算不错,剩下三个都很不怎么样;欧盟一个铁杆都没有。盘点的结果可能把很多人吓一跳,中国居然已经超过美国成了中东局势的主导者,中国成了世界头号大国!

幸福是不是来得太突然了?
 


4、初次交手

特朗普当选以后,美国的全球战略已经崩溃,为了能在中东挽回局面,美国必须搞点明堂出来牵制一下中国,不然美国在中东什么事都干不成。

过去,美国对付中国的牌有四张:东海(日本),台海(台独),南海,疆独和藏独。到2016年底,这四张牌废了三张:日本被中国的军事力量压住,东海局势被中国掌控;疆独和藏独在国内的有生力量基本被消灭,没有能力搞大动作了;“南海仲裁案”之后,又发生了新加坡装甲车被扣事件,南海局势对美国极为不利。杜特尔特想倒向中国,为了交一份投名状就大骂奥巴马是“婊子养的”。是谁给了杜特尔特胆子呢?朝鲜金大元帅。近20年来,朝鲜一直在为世界各国做一个榜样,就是只要你跟中国的关系足够好,美国是可以随便骂的,朝鲜如此,伊朗如此,委内瑞拉也如此。杜特尔特大着胆子试了一把以后发现,果真如此,爽!接着就把美国上上下下全骂了一遍,老子忍你们很久了。中国很想希望杜特尔特能变成东南亚的查韦斯,只是不知道能不能如愿。

在如此不利的情况下,为了能在东亚搞出点动静出来,美国只能打一打台独牌试试了,只不过由于当年的“入联公投”打猛了,现在按照一般的打法也打不出力量来,于是特朗普开始玩邪的,也许真能乱拳打死老师傅呢?

2016年12月2日,特朗普与蔡英文通电话,开始试探着突破“一中”原则。中国在原则问题上一向是非常敏感的,外交部长王毅马上出来警告美国:“一个中国原则是中美关系健康发展的基石,我们不希望这一政治基础受到任何干扰和破坏。”中美两国能够建交,基础就是美国承认“世界上只有一个中国,台湾是中国的一部分”,不仅美国,任何一个国家与中国建交都必须坚持这条原则,否则一边凉快去,爷不伺候。

在对美国进行强烈警告的同时,中国在美国最关心的叙利亚问题上出手了。12月5日,中国和俄罗斯联手否决了安理会关于叙利亚阿勒颇人道局势的决议,这个决议是在美国等西方国家的支持下提出的。在此以前,阿勒颇的反政府武装被叙利亚政府军打得很惨,美国想用短暂的停火来给反政府武装补充弹药、巩固阵地,如果这个决议通过了,叙利亚政府军再想收回阿勒颇就困难多了。

美国也知道,直接说停火是为了帮助反对派很难开口,于是找了个理由,“人道主义救援”。阿勒颇一直在打仗,很多平民都快饿死了,还有一些生命垂危的病人,急需药物救命,为了拯救这些无辜的百姓,阿勒颇必须暂时停火七天,多么高尚的借口!只可惜,这种小把戏只能糊弄不明真相的吃瓜群众,糊弄中国,开玩笑吗?阿勒颇本来没有战争,是谁带来的战争?不把那些人消灭掉,阿勒颇怎么可能重现和平?直接否掉!

中国的否决票拍出来以后奥巴马就急了:我都要下台了,叙利亚还没搞定,让我如何对得起大美利坚帝国的列祖列宗啊,你特朗普轻飘飘一个电话废了我四年的心血,特朗普,你是我祖宗!没办法,赶紧想办法补救吧,于是乎,白宫十天之内连续三次重申,美国坚定奉行一中政策,海枯石烂不变心!

当官的人都要背前任的锅,这是没办法的事情,比如奥巴马,2009年接手的是小布什留下的烂摊子,次贷危机加金融危机,百年不遇的麻烦都让奥巴马遇上了,可要说替自己的继任者背锅,这还真是稀罕,不过奥巴马中奖了,他上辈子绝对欠了特朗普的。美国人最近25年选出了四位总统:拉链常开克林顿,智商欠费小布什,双料锅王奥巴马,推特治国特朗普,都是人才,没有这四位,美国到不了今天。

在这里还得补充一个背景材料,就是中国对叙利亚政府提供军事支持的情况。2010年,在叙利亚乱局开始之前,叙利亚政府未雨绸缪,跟中国签订了10亿美元的武器购买合同,而且付了全款,中国呢,一直拖着不给发货,一拖就是五年,这要是在淘宝上开店,妥妥的差评。中国为什么不发货呢?从表面上看,是美国和沙特不同意,其实呢,呵呵。“伊斯兰国”崛起以后,叙利亚政府军被打得很惨,为了保住阿萨德政权,俄罗斯空军在2015年9月加入了战场。但是,俄罗斯的日子很难过,在美国和欧盟的联手制裁下缺钱缺得要死,没办法,普京只好同意俄罗斯向中国出口原油改用人民币结算,于是中国在2015年11月中旬一次性给俄罗斯打去了一年的石油预付款,972亿人民币,中俄经济合作又上一个新台阶。普京同学如此顾全大局,我们还好意思不给叙利亚发货吗?巴沙尔的事情,就是我们的事情,巴沙尔的需求,就是我们的追求,巴沙尔要什么武器,我们就发什么武器,“石油人民币”,真是好东西!

中国的军火发过去以后叙利亚政府军高兴了,盼星星盼月亮终于把你给盼来了,等他们把这些武器用上了以后才发现,太适合在阿勒颇打巷战了,这是谁造的呀,怎么这么好用呢?中国给发了一堆什么玩艺呢?简单盘点一下:

勇士军车。以前,叙利亚政府军都是用俄罗斯的军用卡车运人,俄罗斯的车大,一辆车至少能拉20人,运输效率很高,就是特别容易被反政府武装的反坦克导弹和火箭筒攻击,一不小心就被一窝端了,中国的勇士军车很小,一车就拉三四个人,目标小,行动灵活,还可以做机动的机枪火力点,用它运兵伤亡率大幅下降。

M99半自动狙击步枪。这个枪的射击精度高、射程远、威力大,在500米开外能击穿15mm的钢板。在阿勒颇巷战中,反政府武装喜欢在楼房的墙上掏出小洞作为射击孔,M99可直接穿透墙壁,把躲在墙后面的敌人击毙,这也是打巷战的称手家伙。

85式重机枪。12.7毫米的子弹可轻易拆倒任何坚固的墙体,能帮助叙利亚政府军清除躲藏在建筑物内的敌人,绝对的巷战利器。除了这些以外,中国还给送过去了ZU-23-2遥控武器站系统、防空机枪、56式冲锋枪、CQ-A自动步枪、87式榴弹发射器、W-99型82毫米速射迫击炮和63式107火箭炮等武器。另外,考虑到阿勒颇久战不决也不是个事,中国又派了个顾问团过去。中国顾问过去以后,叙利亚政府军很快改变了战法,围三阙一,穿插分割,集中优势兵力打歼灭战,几个月下来,阿勒颇局势就明朗化了。阿勒颇是叙利亚的经济中心,相当于中国的上海,对阿萨德政权非常重要。

特朗普当选以后,欧盟为了跟美国加强一下统战工作就在2016年11月14日通过了新一轮对叙利亚政权的制裁名单,中国一看,这可不行,你这不是要砸我“石油人民币”的场子吗?中国当天就向叙利亚政府提供了7000万美元的经济援助,理由嘛,人道主义。人道主义就是一个筐,什么都能往里装。中国提供援助以后普京也来了精神,11月15日,“库兹涅佐夫”号航母开始参与在叙利亚的空袭行动,这是俄罗斯海军史上首次有航母参与作战行动。为什么见到中国的援助普京才下决心动用航母呢?派航母参战的确可以提高作战效率,可他那个航母年纪大了,性能不怎么样,经常黑烟滚滚,打起仗来支撑不了几天,如果中国不支持,一打持久战他那个航母就废了,中国的援助派出以后,普京知道这个仗很快能打赢,才下了决心让航母参战,实际的情况是,50天以后战事结束,“库兹涅佐夫”就赶紧回国维修去了。唉,普京大帝的决心需要中国来下,离了中国,俄罗斯现在什么都不是了。

中国给叙利亚7000万美元援助多不多呢?提前五年收了人家10亿美元的预付款,就算不用来投资仅仅是把这笔钱存进银行收利息,大额存款利息高,按5%计算,五年下来2.5亿美元,这一次给人家7000万,以后再援助三次都不赔本,还能净赚四回好名声,这么会精打细算过日子的政府上你哪找去啊?
 
5、二次打脸
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 01, 2017, 07:25:06 PM




5、二次打脸



也许是因为有人替他背着锅,特朗普丝毫没有感觉到压力。

12月11日,特朗普在接受美国福克斯电视台采访时说,美国要承认“一个中国”政策只有一个前提,这就是中国在贸易和其他议题上做出让步。特朗普正式开始挑战“一中”原则。特朗普跟中国摊牌了,只是不知道美军有没有胆量跟中国动手呢?试试才知道吧。

12月15日,中国海军在南海扣留了一艘美国无人水下潜航器。根据五角大楼官员的说法,事情发生在离菲律宾苏比克湾港口100英里的地方,当时美国“鲍迪奇”号海洋测量船正要回收两个水下无人潜航器,一艘中国海军舰艇冲了过来,当着美国船员的面抢走了一个无人潜航器。

“鲍迪奇”号是美国军方的间谍船,船上的无人潜航器是美国军方的财产,就这样被中国军方明目张胆地抢走了。这是什么行为?标准的战争行为。按道理说,美军应该先提出警告,要求归还,不给就得开枪夺回来,但美军没敢这么做。

美国人是怎么做的呢?按照五角大楼的说法,“鲍迪奇”号在无人潜航器被抢走以后马上使用无线电信号呼叫中国军舰,要求“停止偷窃行为”,中方却始终没有应答,过了很久以后溜走的中国军舰突然回应道:“有什么事需要帮忙?我们正在附近巡逻。”

帮忙?你过来,我保证不打死你。

现在轮到美军犯愁了,怎么把这个玩艺弄回来呢?堂堂海上霸主,居然被人给抢了,这也太丢人了吧?美国国防部就发了一个声明,要求中国立即归还。特朗普也知道这事跟自己有关,就发了一条推特,“我们应该告诉中国,他们偷走的无人潜航器我们不想要了,就让他们留着吧!”看来这些美国人都迷糊了,中国军方明明是当着美国人的面把无人潜航器拿走的,怎么能叫偷呢?这叫抢好不好?当然了,要说美军的财产被人抢了确实比较丢脸,还是说被偷更有面子一点。

中国这一次是铁了心要打特朗普的脸。国防部马上回应,“美方单方面公开炒作不利于问题顺利解决,中方将通过适当方式向美方移交该潜航器。”什么叫单方面炒作?明明是被抢,却说成被偷,明明丢了脸,却在给自己争脸,就是在炒作。

中美军方在南海闹开以后,奥巴马也跟特朗普掐上了。

12月16日下午,奥巴马在年终总结记者会上警告特朗普,不要试图改变“一中”政策,这是中国的核心问题,如果真要改,你得先想清楚后果,别到时候收拾不了残局!双料锅王决定,锅只背一个,特朗普的锅,老子不背!看来锅王还是很骨气的。锅王的这番警告让特朗普很是尴尬,就这么承认“一中”原则显得太没战斗力,不承认眼前这个槛又过不去,怎么办好呢?先找个人打圆场蒙混过关再说吧。

12月18日,特朗普的白宫幕僚长普里伯斯到《福克斯周日新闻》节目上替特朗普灭火,普里伯斯说,特朗普还没有打算改变“一个中国”的政策,他还没有入主白宫,对台政策现在还是奥巴马说了算。普里伯斯说得很圆滑,现在是奥巴马说了算,特朗普上台以后呢?普里伯斯打完圆场以后,国际上马上发生了两件大事。

第一件事,挪威外相访华认错。2010年,诺贝尔奖评选委员会在北京的严重警告声中把和平奖颁给了刘某波,中挪关系彻底恶化,从此以后,挪威开始过上被人修理的日子。第一个倒霉的是挪威的三文鱼,由于可能携带“ISA”病毒,挪威的三文鱼被执行了非常耗时的检查措施,大量鲜鱼在仓库中腐烂,不过,出自同一片海域的英国三文鱼通关非常顺利,挪威三文鱼在中国的市场占有率从92%一口气跌到29%。第二件事情,挪威签证受限,一般人就不用说了,首相都不给面子,2012年,挪威首相参加一个在南京举办的国际会议,会前一周被通知拒签,就不让你的人来中国,首相也不行,你能怎么的?经此一事之后,挪威政府怕它的驻华大使回国以后也被拒签,就不敢让大使回国了,这位可怜的大使只好咬着牙在中国挺着,一直挺到2016年底。无人潜航器事件发生以后,美国的软弱让挪威的精神支柱崩溃了,12月19日,挪威外相访华,对曾经的错误进行了深刻反思,挪威向中国保证,以后不会再犯低级错误了,中挪关系正常化。好了,大使先生,你可以回国探亲了。

挪威外相登门道歉以后,蒙古也撑不住了。蒙古跟中国有什么过节呢?2006年11月中旬,蒙古邀请达赖访问,事先北京再三劝阻,蒙古政府就是不听,没办法,只好给它松松骨了。中国是怎么收拾蒙古的呢?按说动作也不大,就是对蒙古过境中国的货车加了点钱,一辆车通行费加10块,车上的货物每吨加附加费8块,再就是无限期的推迟了向蒙古提供贷款的双边会议,就这么点小小的惩罚,不成敬意。但是,蒙古的经济极为困难,很多人连蛋糕都吃不起了,蒙古出口的90%又是面向中国的,这么个拦路抢劫法它怎么受得了?不对,是拦路收费。在挪威外相访华的第二天,蒙古外长也飞到北京,向北京认错,保证以后不会再请达赖访问了。

美国丢了两个反华盟友以后,中国就把无人潜航器还给了美国。现在事情又热闹了,特朗普是候任总统,他都说不要了美国军方还能要吗?候任总统的面子还比不上一个无人潜航器?但是,他们又不敢不要。中国捞无人潜航器的时候可是说得明白,这是个不明装置,中国捞过来是想查证一下这个东西会不会对过往船舶的航行安全和人员安全产生危害,可没说这是个间谍装置,其实呢,这个东西的真实作用是监控中国潜艇航路,如果美军敢说不要,我们就把它扔给朝鲜拆着玩,美国受得了吗?没办法,美军只好收了回去,中国借着美国海军的手狠狠给了特朗普一个大嘴巴,你不是说不要吗?打得你不要不要的。

6、打回原形



美国在无人潜航器事件上的无所作为也引发了叙利亚局势的重大变化。12月23日,叙利亚政府军收复阿勒颇;28日,土耳其和俄罗斯就叙利亚停火计划达成一致,阿萨德政府和叙反对派实现停火(不包括叙境内恐怖组织);31日,联合国安理会通过决议,可日前由俄罗斯和土耳其促成的叙利亚停火协议。2017年1月24日,俄罗斯、伊朗和土耳其三国发表联合声明,将建立叙利亚停火三国联合监督机制。监督叙利亚停火居然没有美国和欧盟什么事,这个世界要变天了。

叙利亚战场停火的同时,中国的轰6-K和“辽宁”号航母相继绕台,警告美国和台独势力,要不我们提前解决台湾问题如何?瞧瞧吧,一个无人潜航器给美国搞出多少麻烦。

1月5日,中国外长王毅与美国国务卿克里通电话,希望美方能把握好两国关系发展的正确方向。克里回应道,“美中关系十分重要,坚持基于美中三个联合公报的一个中国政策,是美国两党的共同立场。”美国两党全都坚持“一中”原则特朗普不坚持,怪不得他是个局外人呢。

1月13日,即将入主白宫的特朗普接受《华尔街日报》记者采访时说,他将不承诺支持一个中国政策,一切都在谈判中。特朗普还想再踢一下天安门的城墙,试试到底有多结实。

1月17日,习主席出席达沃斯世界经济论坛,这是中国国家元首第一次出现在达沃斯论坛上。这件事对美国来说,是个危险的信号。2010-2014年是欧盟经济最艰难的日子,在这四年里中国参加达沃斯论坛的代表团规模和级别是逐年下降的,2015年以后级别才提了起来,现在欧盟正在为英国脱欧、难民危机和恐怖袭击三个麻烦犯愁,中国最高领导人的到来无疑是一种莫大的支持。美国和欧元区都是虚拟经济,在后金融危机时代全世界养活不了它们两家,美国只好出手搞欧盟,债务危机,难民危机,恐怖袭击,轮翻在欧元区国家上演。现在特朗普跟中国闹翻了,敌人的敌人就是朋友,中国帮欧盟一把说得过去吧?不过,欧盟得到中国的支持以后,也许撑不住的就是美国了。

1月23日,特朗普签署了第一份行政命令,退出TPP。平心而论,特朗普退出TPP是假退,他原指望日本、澳大利亚等国家把贸易协定的条件修改一下,改得对美国更有利一点,再把美国请回去,美国名利双收,可特朗普没想到的是,由于在过去两个多月里他被人拍的一脸血,在别人眼里早就没了身价,澳大利亚马上表示,美国不干就算了,我们请中国来干吧。澳大利亚和美国来的这一出如果打个比方应该是这样的:两个人吵架,一个气极了,说我不想活了,我要跳楼,另一个马上把窗户打开说,来,跳吧。

特朗普很生气,后果很严重!

1月27日,特朗普签署总统行政令,暂停所有难民及伊朗、苏丹、叙利亚、利比亚、索马里、也门和伊拉克7国公民入境,无限期禁止叙利亚难民入境。行政令特别规定,“履行此前存在的国际协议”时可以例外,也就是说,美澳难民安置协议还是可以执行的。澳大利亚总理特恩布尔一看非常高兴,赶紧给特朗普打电话,特恩布尔在电话里说,老兄啊,之前锅王答应过的,我们这里有1250名难民可以送到你们那去,你什么时候来接人呀?特朗普一听就火了,前几天你在TPP的事情上插了我一刀,现在又叫我接收难民,你有病呀!骂完就把电话给撂了。特恩布尔也蒙了,还能这样啊,外交礼仪呢?契约精神呢?

特朗普的倒霉事还远没有结束。“禁穆令”签署以后,伊朗政府马上出台反制措施,暂停美国公民入境,直到美国政府解除“禁穆令”为止,伊朗央行跟着宣布,以后在外汇交易和财务报告中弃用美元。这下子坏了,美元霸权是美国的命根子,必须坚决保护,当年萨达姆被灭国就有弃用美元结算的原因,欧债危机连年闹也与欧元跟美元争霸直接相关,现在伊朗弃用美元了,美国应该出兵打它才行,可美国现在哪有这个能力?叙利亚都被迫停火了,还是在伊朗的监督下停火,美国拿什么打伊朗?可如果不打它,别的国家也跟着弃用美元,“禁穆令”不就成自己刨自己的祖坟了吗?

怎么化解这个难题呢?说实在的,美国最高管理层的人很有慧根,他们还能想到你做梦都想不出来的办法:

2月3日,华盛顿州西区联邦地方法院法官罗巴特作出裁决,在全美范围内暂停实施“禁穆令”;

2月4日,司法部向美国联邦第九巡回上诉法院上诉,要求解禁“禁穆令”;

2月9日,第九巡回上诉法院裁定,维持罗巴特冻结“禁穆令”的裁决,持美国签证的相关国家公民可继续入境。

真是开眼了,区区一个联邦地方法院,居然能管全美国的事情,美国媒体天天在那宣传,美国总统是全世界最有权势的人,美国总统算什么?华盛顿地方法院的法官才是全世界最有权势的人。

在分权模式下,制衡总统的力量是国会,地方法院只是法律的执行者,它们执行的重要法律大都出自国会,国会通过法律需要总统签字才能生效,地方法院有什么资格跟总统抗衡?总统签字的行政命令也是法律,只不过执行它的是各级政府,不是法院,就算总统真错了,也得国会跟总统掰,法院只是法律的执行者,不是制定者,法院有什么资格裁定一个法律是不是定错了?如果法院能决定哪些法律是正确的,哪些是错误的,法院不就可以制定法律了吗,还要议会干什么?

退一万步讲,就算法院有权力裁决,也应该最高法院亲自出面才行,地方法院有什么资格?总统只要在那个位子上坐着,地方法院就没有资格审他,在职的总统不是一个普通意义上的人,他是一个国家的象征,他有豁免权,真要办他也得先把他搞下去,秋后才能算账,古今中外,全都如此。随便一个小法官就能审总统,国家不乱套了吗?

这些道理美国的精英们不懂吗?他们当然懂,不过他们没办法,特朗普办的这个事太要命:第一,伊朗已经带头造反了,继续执行要出大事;第二,“禁穆令”不是特朗普个人的意愿,它代表了美国最高管理层相当一部分人的意愿,直接废掉也不行,只能玩玩花样了。2017年6月26日,美国最高法院以9:0全票推翻了下级法院的判决,“禁穆令”部分解禁,可以执行。看清楚了吧?美国地方法院反对,联邦巡回上诉法院反对,最高法院却是绝对支持的,这说明什么?如果特朗普的禁令是违法的,说明最高法院的九个大法官全都不懂法,如果特朗普的禁令不违法,总统要做什么事,还需要地方法院批准吗?这个国家到底是谁在管理?美国地方法院能裁“禁穆令”,为什么不裁决一下特朗普否认“一中”的事情?这可是违反中美三个联合公报的。

中国还没出手,伊朗就把美国的权力体系给搞乱套了,特朗普还有什么本钱跟中国斗?于是乎,一直端着架子不给中国人拜年的特朗普赶紧发出贺信,祝中国人民“鸡年兴旺”,不过此时新年已经过去11天。特朗普也觉得年拜得也太晚了,显得很没诚意,就又想了个补救的办法,他在贺信里面同时预祝中国人民元宵节快乐,元宵节还不到,这个不晚吧?叫我说呀,他应该把中秋节也一块祝了,万一八月十四他跟中国闹得不开心忘记祝贺了,再补都不好补嘛。

发完贺电以后,中美关系稍微缓和了一下,特朗普开始跟习主席通电话,特朗普在电话里保证,美国政府坚决奉行“一个中国”政策,不谈判了。真是的,早知今日,何必当初?折腾一圈子,弄得里外不是人,何苦来着?当然了,有一个人是一定要感谢特朗普的,就是挪威驻华大使,拜特朗普所赐,他可以回家了。

摘自公众号有听早餐(ID:youtingzaocan),系授权发布,作者:棋胜老师,资深宏观经济研究专家,国际问题专家,THLDL咨询集团创始合伙人。我们对文中观点保持中立,仅供参考、交流之目的。

下期预告
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on October 20, 2017, 08:50:14 AM




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WORLD ECONOMY
ECONOMY  WORLD ECONOMY  US ECONOMY  THE FED  CENTRAL BANKS  JOBS  GDP OUTLOOK
China's central bank just warned of a sudden collapse in asset prices
China's central bank has said it should prevent accumulation of risk from excessive optimism
Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said corporate debt is relatively high and that household debt rises too quickly
Zhou said the trading range of the yuan exchange rate was not a key issue at moment
Zhou is expected to step down early next year
Published 19 Hours Ago  Updated 12 Hours Ago
Reuters
 China's central bank just warned of a sudden collapse in asset prices   China's central bank just warned of a sudden collapse in asset prices 
10 Hours Ago | 00:53
China will fend off risks from excessive optimism that could lead to a "Minsky Moment", central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on Thursday, adding that corporate debt levels are relatively high and household debt is rising too quickly.

A Minsky Moment is a sudden collapse of asset prices after a long period of growth, sparked by debt or currency pressures. The theory is named after economist Hyman Minsky.

Zhou's warnings of potential risks facing the world's second-largest economy contrast with the rosier views of most Chinese officials.

"If there are too many pro-cyclical factors in the economy, cyclical fluctuations are magnified and there is excessive optimism during the period, accumulating contradictions that could lead to the so-called Minsky Moment," Zhou was speaking on the sidelines of China's 19th Communist Party congress.

"We should focus on preventing a dramatic adjustment," he said. China will control risks from sudden adjustments to asset bubbles and will seriously deal with disguised debt of local government financing vehicles, Zhou said.

Still, China's overall debt levels could decline as long as authorities keep a tight control on credit, he said.

Worries about a rapid build-up in China's debt prompted S&P Global Ratings to cut China's sovereign credit rating last month, following a cut by Moody's in May.

China's finance ministry said S&P's downgrade was a "wrong decision".

The International Monetary Fund IMF said in August it expected China's total non-financial sector debt to rise to almost 300 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022, up from 242 percent last year.

When asked whether he would retire this year or next, Zhou said: "Either way it'll be soon." The 69-year-old Zhou, the country's longest-serving central bank chief, has spearheaded financial reforms and boosted the yuan's global profile.

Sources told Reuters earlier that Zhou was likely to retire around the time of the annual session of parliament next March, and China's top banking regulator Guo Shuqing and veteran banker Jiang Chaoliang are front runners to succeed Zhou.

Yuan band not key focus

Zhou also said that the trading range of the yuan exchange rate was not a key issue at the moment, and that the width of the yuan's current band rarely constrains supply and demand.

    China retail sales data beats, even as economy rebalances consumption 
17 Hours Ago | 04:14
"Sometimes a widening of the exchange rate's floating range is a signal that (China's) opening up will move forward. But this is not the key focus currently," he said.

The central bank is considering a widening of the yuan's trading band after the 19th Communist Party congress, Reuters reported in August, citing sources.

The central bank could widen the yuan trading range to allow it to rise or fall 3 percent against the dollar from the daily mid-point rate set by the central bank, up from the current 2 percent, according to the sources.

The foreign exchange market is currently stable, Pan Gongsheng, chief of the forex regulator, said on the sidelines of the congress, adding that supply and demand in the foreign exchange market was basically balanced.

Pan said on Wednesday that he expected yuan exchange rates to have a more stable foundation after the congress, and the central bank had "basically exited" from its regular yuan intervention.

Beijing burned through nearly $320 billion of reserves last year and the yuan still fell about 6.5 percent against the surging dollar, its biggest annual drop since 1994.

The yuan has gained nearly 5 percent so far this year.
Title: Re: CHINA
Post by: king on November 02, 2017, 06:44:39 AM




習近平為何捍衛毛澤東思想?

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中國毛澤東主席逝世(1976年9月9日)不到一個月內,中共第一副主席華國鋒結合黨元老,主要是掌握兵權的葉劍英于10月6日對四人幫採取突擊的逮捕行動后,歷時10年的「文化大革命」基本上戈然而止(四人幫即指在文革時權傾一時的江青、王洪文、張春橋及姚文元)。但還要經過兩年的掙扎才把華國鋒信奉的「兩個凡是」整掉(所謂的「兩個凡是」是指凡是毛主席作出的決策我們都堅決維護;凡是毛主席的指示我們都始終不渝的遵循)。

1978年鄧小平在第11屆三中全會上已確定了他的「改革開放政策」,否定「兩個凡是」和否定「文化大革命」,為中國的政局啟開新的一頁。這之中有兩個個大動作是由鄧小平親自拍板和作出表率的。其一,1979年初他代表國家出訪美國,回報尼克遜1972年對中國之訪問;其二,他照會美國將教訓越南,因而有了1979年中國揮軍入越南攻打諒山的戰爭。

這之中的重要轉變也標誌著中美關係的好轉,1979年兩國將聯絡處提升為大使館;中國也借開放政策引進外資和與西方世界打交道,也無可避免的中國國內在改革開放的名堂下,對毛澤東的批評也升級到批判,甚至有人否定毛澤東的功績。在這方面,鄧小平于1980年會見意大利記者奧琳埃娜·法拉奇時為毛澤東做了辯護,他認真地提出了對毛澤東功過的「三七」開。換句話說,他的功績是七分,他的錯誤是三分。這之后,鄧小平已成為中國實權領導人,華國鋒靠邊站,中國進入了鄧小平年代。

鄧小平的評價也在改革開放后形成一個被接受的「蓋棺論定」。這也是為什麼在鄧小平之下的胡耀邦、趙紫陽、江澤民、胡錦濤乃至今日的習近平都不能也不會把「毛澤東思想」這把刀子丟掉的,因為不論中國怎樣開放和怎樣改革,它都離不開中共立黨立國的根基。它可以在經濟上走得比資本主義還要快;它可以直接和間接地引進資本主義和西方的文化;它可以在政治上與任何國家交流和發展雙邊乃至多邊關係,但來到政治這個關口,它是不能放鬆和在潛移默化中把社會主義體制整掉;更不會接受政治體制的改革來迎合經濟發展的需求。

改頭換面的「新中國」

為此,我們不感到驚奇為何在12月26日那天,習近平率領了所有政治局常委(共7位)在毛澤東紀念堂向毛澤東塑像行三鞠躬禮,並瞻仰毛澤東遺容。這一天正是毛澤東冥誕120週年。雖然沒有其他重大的紀念活動,但說明了中國領導人不論在任何情況下都不會讓毛澤東打下的紅色江山被變質,儘管這30年來中國大地已起了天翻地覆的變化,讓人感覺到中國好像已不是社會主義的國家,而是在某些方面走在資本主義的前頭,更像是一個改頭換面的「新中國」。

中國領導人也許不介意被稱為已是脫胎換骨的「新中國」,但不會同意它已朝資本主義道路滑落下去,因為它堅持走中國特色的社會主義道路。

這種特色也真是沒有前例可援引,只能在摸索中前進。前提是中國怎樣把持「紅色江山」?這就要回歸到對馬克思主義和毛澤東思想的堅持。

馬克思主義是中共建黨的指導思想,它是在馬克思主義影響在下的一個左翼政黨。