RAIDER IS THE BIGGEST BULL IN INVESTLAH LOH!

[stockraider]

The Art of Successful Investing in the Stock Market kcchongnz
Author: kcchongnz   |   Publish date: Sun, 21 Aug 2016, 02:20 AM

I read a good article when the author describes on hindsight in the link below that investors could have avoided losing big money in Globetronics if they were aware of the cognitive behaviour of confirmation bias and have done some detail business analysis.
Frankly, readers would benefit much more by reading this type of sharing, rather than those boasting how much they have made in the share market, and encouraging you to take excessive risk such following the greater fool theory and using margin finance to boast your return and to become multi-millionaire overnight.

Here, I would like to share what I had seen for the same stock, Globetronics, how investors could have avoided some heavy losses, and for a couple more stocks, Focus Lumber and Latitude Tree, if they know and care to carry out some quantitative analysis and valuations.

Globetronics Technology Bhd
Globetronics, a great company which I will describe later, had its share price plunged by 55% in less than 8 months from RM6.50 at end of year 2015 to RM2.90 at the close on 20th August 2016 as shown in Figure 1 of its share price movement below.
Anyone who has bet big on it with margin finance would have lost everything in just than 8 months. Why not bet on it? There are numerous reasons why an investor would “sailing”, or bet all on it.
Figure 1:
When Globetronics announced its fantastic result for year ending 31st December 2015 on 23rd February 2016, I did take a good look at Globetronics with the intention to invest in it.

Earnings per share improved (again) by about 15% to 25.3 sen per share from the previous year. Return on capitals were again great at more than 20%, more than twice its costs of capitals. Cash flows were great too. There had been profit growth every year since many years ago. This is what I would classify as a great company.
However, bear in mind a great company is not necessary a good investment, provided that it is selling at a reasonable price. So was Globetronics selling at a reasonable price at RM5.95 at that time?
PE ratio was at 22.3, not really expensive as the company has excellent growth in the past and beautiful operating numbers. However, Enterprise value was 17 times earnings before interest and tax (Ebit). This is definitely on the high side for me as it is two and half times more than what I would pay for an ordinary company. Oh yeah, I like growth, but I am cheap skate as I won’t pay much for it.
I did a discount cash flow analysis from the fundamental aspect assuming growth is internally generated through return on capitals, assuming a bold 15% growth for the next 5 years and 5% subsequently. I was only able to get an intrinsic value of RM4.15, way below its price of RM5.95 at that time.

With that market price, investors were expecting Globetronics would continue to growth at very high rate of more than 20% as before, and with margin expansion and higher return on capitals, and hence willing to pay a high price.
I gave up the idea of investing in it as I think it was overvalued at that price.
Shortly after that, the growth expectation did not materialize, and profit plummeted the last two quarters. With the high price paid by many investors, it was a double whammy, and the rest is history.

“Wonderful companies become risky when people overpay for them.” Peter Lynch.

Focus Lumber
I have written about Focus Lumber before in the link below:
Focus Lumber is another great company. Just before it announced its third quarter results for period ended 30th September 2015 somewhere on 17th November 2015, its share price jumped by 70% within 3 months from RM1.84 to a high of RM3.09 on January 12 2016 as shown in Figure 2 below.
The results show the vast improvement for the third quarter 2015 with net profit increased by more than 200% from RM3.3m to RM9.6m for the corresponding period in 2014. EPS, as a result, also increased by more than 200% from a EPS of 3.2 sen to 9.4 sen for the quarter.

Some investors who purely base on a single metric of “Profit growth”, without considering where this “growth” comes from, saw a great opportunity and annualized the EPS by multiplying by 4 to the single quarter exceptional result and obtained an expected EPS of 37.6 sen for the next 12 months, and chased the share price up to more than RM3.00 in early January 2016.
However, many do not care about its financial statements and failed to see that the greatly improved result for the third quarter of 2015 was in a major part, due to the gain in foreign currency as a result of rising USD against Ringgit from the beginning to the end of the period, a one-off item.

When the next quarter showed a reduced profit from the preceding quarter due to some recovery of Ringgit against USD, investors dumped its share, resulting its share price dropped more than 30% to less than RM2.00, in less than two months. It closed at RM1.72 on 19th August 2016. They would have lost a total of 44% in less than 8 months.
Again paying too much to chase the illusive growth story, without understand where the “growth” comes from, is hazardous to one’s financial health.

At RM1.72 now, I think Focus Lumber is a great value stock to invest for long term. But why is there no interest in this stock? Once bitten twice shy?

Latitude Tree
Latitude Tree was and still is a great company in my opinion with high return on capitals, excellent cash flows and a good growth story. I personally have written a number of articles discussing about it, including a number of other furniture companies.
Latitude Tree was heavily promoted in ********** when it was about RM6.00 sometime in November 2015. I was a contrarian then and I have written my last article on it discussing about the cyclical and the power of mean reversion in investing in the link below, and hence put forth my opinion that at RM6.00, it wasn’t cheap any more.

Latitude Tree’s share price continued to climb to above RM8.00, pushing its PE ratio, based on the latest and historical highest earnings per share, to about 12, way above its historical PE of single digit number.
I did hear some investors making hundreds of million investing in this share when its share price climbed from RM6.00 to above RM8.00. But how many retail investors lost big when they bought at about RM8.00 and now the share price is lingering at RM5.15?

At this price, PE ratio is only 6.4, considerably below its historical PE ratio, but nobody talks about it at all.
Figure 3:

Conclusion
Most investors chase the growth story, buying stock without having an idea the value of a stock. They usually follow some rumours and hypes, taking the road where the greater fools go. They buy stocks when they are selling at high prices, hoping someone else will buy from them at even higher prices. They paid too high a price for some growth expectation, expecting trees to grow to sky. The end result is, most of them lost money when there is a double whammy; that they pay too high a price for something which eventually did not materialized.

The only way to have a higher probability of success for retail investors in the jungle out there is to have some knowledge of the business, and know the language of the business, that is the ability to read and interpret financial statements, and have a feel of the value of a business, i.e. to know how to carry out at least some simple valuations.

If you know how to do the above, you would be able to buy some great companies selling cheap.
Sure, everyone makes mistakes in his judgment. I have my share of those too. Investors must realize that the stock market is unknowable and unpredictable. One must know what he may not know, especially about the future. Even Charles Munger said this,

"IInvesting is not easy; anyone thinks it is easy is stupid".
Know and understand the relationship between price and value. Understand risk, recognize it and control it.

And that is what I try to teach you. And if you are interested to learn about them for a small fee, because you want to have a higher chance of getting satisfactory return of your investment in the long run,

[stockraider]

An investing lesson from Globetronics
Author: Ricky Yeo   |   Publish date: Sat, 20 Aug 2016, 03:08 PM

This is not a Globetronics bashing session. And Gtronics would easily qualified as one of the top 10% stock within KLSE in terms of return on equity, management and earning quality. But it is a reminder that more things can happen than we imagined, particularly to long-term investors. 

Gtronic's share price (Blue line) went from a dollar in early 2012 to $6 in a span of 4 years, registering 500% gain, tracing (outpacing) their revenue & earnings growth. 

Throughout this period, many investors would come out with terms like 'Solid', 'Growth', 'Defensive' to describe the stock, backed by the business prospect and share price.

If one is not convinced, he can perform a DCF valuation. A DCF valuation (Teal line) done in any point over the past 3 years using 12 months trailing EPS will justify Gtronic as a BUY with huge margin of safety (shaded area) ranging from 20-50%, albeit shrinking towards the 2nd half of 2015.

This can be achieved by forecast 10% growth rate over 10 years, justified as a growth company by its historical growth rate. In fact, one can even have plausible reasons to BUY it right at the very peak, quoting Warren Buffett 'I am owning a quality company at a fair price', before the share price flies off the cliff.   

What went wrong? Its not that DCF method is unreliable, it is a great tool. But how useful a tool is ultimately depends on how one use it, and more importantly, to understand its limit. This is not to say now you should throw away all analysis or valuation methods, as most would like to believe with a 'either or' mindset. Rather, one should be careful against their own assumptions, hypothesis and what they know and don't know. And knowing what you don't know is more important than what you know.

We suffer from hindsight bias. Everything looks so obvious in the rear mirror. The smartphone market has entered a saturation stage and slowing down, coupled with macro headwinds etc, we all see it coming. But if everything is so obvious now, why didn't we see it turn?

Hindsight bias is not limited to when things go wrong, but started when things are going really well, which got us into trouble in the first place. We look at past figures, create a hypothesis that fits the phenomenom we observed, and extrapolate into the future. In essence, we choose the most convenient reason to explain why things turn out this way rather than generating multiples hypothesis and select the most plausible ones.

In the case of Gtronic, the most convenient hypothesis is - Smartphone & gadgets are driving the needs for more sensors and test equipments. And China, where most of the growth is coming from, only has a smartphone penetration rate of 38% compare to 68% in US. A projection is done to derive a higher valuation followed by finding confirming information to justify the decision. And one of the most comfirming information that reinforce behavior is the increase of share price.

Second level thinking such as competitors' reaction or industry dynamics are rarely brought up due to the lack of information or in short, discomforting. But more often than not, contradicting information are ignored because they do not conform or fit with the situation. No matter how accurate your valuation method is, it cannot protect you against your own ignorance.

Recently, there's a surge of interest in the construction sector especially the likes of Gadang and so on. I made no effort to analyse the current valuation of Gadang but purely as a great example while it is fresh in everyone's memory.

The most convenient hypothesis for Gadang is its strong order book, earning visibility, and positive prospects from various divisions, namely construction, property and utility. While other hypothesis that explains its risk from potential normalization of profit margin, cyclical nature of the industry to adverse material cost situation and strong dependency on key customers, which are dependent on governments, are generally less studied. Mainly because they are hard to predict and some are plainly unknowable. But it doesn't mean they're not there, unimportant, or will never happen. Even less examined is the share price itself, on what's been priced in, and what's the expectation.

Most investors would proclaim that the most important thing is never lose money, yet would spend majority of the time finding conforming views than musing on opposing ones.

In 2014, when Magni-tech was selling at $2, I made the decision not to buy its shares after studying it for some time due to a lack of information on both annual report and primary sources. And there goes my 100% return. But by looking at the outcome itself one would have misses the point. It is the process, the risk of what I don't know that counts, not what's countable in the balance sheet or income statement.

Does that mean one is wrong if they own Magni? Absolutely not. Position sizing and portfolio diversification plays a huge role too.

The lesson here is focus on your investment thought process. Examine how you reach a conclusion is as important as the conclusion itself. When you solidify thought processes, and address what you don't know, any valuation tools you utilise will be much more potent.

You are only as strong as your weakest link. That applies to both investing and life. So don't let it breaks

Raider says u need to balance between paying a premium to growth and finding a huge anchor to value loh...!!

Globetronic is a good lesson of a growth story failed...but then there are many successful story of growth like Pbank for example or say myeg where investor pay a premium and chase.

So investor facing a scenario of growth v value dilemma...should he chase leh ??
Raider says after u have done all ur research and u are confident and like the growth story but u r worried about the high risk premium to be paid for the growth, raider think u should chase loh...but set your STOP say at 5% below ur entry price...just in case it falter like Globetronic loh....!!

Why raider reckon chase ??
Great growth company are hard to find mah...!!

[stockraider]

Raider says u need to balance between paying a premium to growth and finding a huge anchor to value loh...!!

Globetronic is a good lesson of a growth story failed...but then there are many successful story of growth like Pbank for example or say myeg where investor pay a premium and chase.

So investor facing a scenario of growth v value dilemma...should he chase leh ??
Raider says after u have done all ur research and u are confident and like the growth story but u r worried about the high risk premium to be paid for the growth, raider think u should chase loh...but set your STOP say at 5% below ur entry price...just in case it falter like Globetronic loh....!!

Why raider reckon chase ??
Great growth company are hard to find mah...!!

RAIDER SAYS CHASING GROWTH STOCK IS AN AGGRESSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY LOH....!!
JUST LIKE PLAYING BADMINTON...U KEEP ATTACKING U R EMPLOYING AGGRESSIVE BADMINTON STRATEGY MAH..!!

WHEN U ATTACK U ACTUALLY AT RISK LOH....IT EXPOSE OR WEAKEN YOUR DEFENSIVE POSITION....JUST LIKE U VERY HARD SMASH..IF UR OPPONENT MANAGE RETRIEVE WITH A TRICK SHOT...U WILL HARD TIME...CHASING AND HITTING BACK LOH...!!

EXPERIENCE PLAYER ....LIKE CHONG WEI.....CHEN LONG....LIN DAN DON SIMPLY ATTACK ALL THE WAY AND WON'T DEFENSE ALL THE WAY LOH....!!

HE MIX IT WITH DEFENSE AND ATTACK WITH A VARIETY SHOTS LOH....!!

SO COMING BACK TO GROWTH STOCK....SHOULD U CHASE ?? THE ANSWER IS YES....JUST LIKE BADMINTON SHOULD SMASH ??  BUT ALWAYS MIX IT WITH A VARIETY OF BALANCE  STROKE LOH....!! 

[zigzag]

Raider says u need to balance between paying a premium to growth and finding a huge anchor to value loh...!!

Globetronic is a good lesson of a growth story failed...but then there are many successful story of growth like Pbank for example or say myeg where investor pay a premium and chase.

So investor facing a scenario of growth v value dilemma...should he chase leh ??
Raider says after u have done all ur research and u are confident and like the growth story but u r worried about the high risk premium to be paid for the growth, raider think u should chase loh...but set your STOP say at 5% below ur entry price...just in case it falter like Globetronic loh....!!

Why raider reckon chase ??
Great growth company are hard to find mah...!!

RAIDER SAYS CHASING GROWTH STOCK IS AN AGGRESSIVE INVESTMENT STRATEGY LOH....!!
JUST LIKE PLAYING BADMINTON...U KEEP ATTACKING U R EMPLOYING AGGRESSIVE BADMINTON STRATEGY MAH..!!

WHEN U ATTACK U ACTUALLY AT RISK LOH....IT EXPOSE OR WEAKEN YOUR DEFENSIVE POSITION....JUST LIKE U VERY HARD SMASH..IF UR OPPONENT MANAGE RETRIEVE WITH A TRICK SHOT...U WILL HARD TIME...CHASING AND HITTING BACK LOH...!!

EXPERIENCE PLAYER ....LIKE CHONG WEI.....CHEN LONG....LIN DAN DON SIMPLY ATTACK ALL THE WAY AND WON'T DEFENSE ALL THE WAY LOH....!!

HE MIX IT WITH DEFENSE AND ATTACK WITH A VARIETY SHOTS LOH....!!

SO COMING BACK TO GROWTH STOCK....SHOULD U CHASE ?? THE ANSWER IS YES....JUST LIKE BADMINTON SHOULD SMASH ??  BUT ALWAYS MIX IT WITH A VARIETY OF BALANCE  STROKE LOH....!!

yes, must be agressive
in sports, the attackers always emerge as winners

[stockraider]

One Up On Wall Street: How To Use What You Already Know To Make Money In The Market

 Lynch is the master stock picker who led Magellan (until May 1990) to its position as America's biggest mutual fund. In One Up on Wall Street (Simon & Schuster, 1989), also written with Rothchild, he described his winning methods. Here, he provides a few more elaborations and 21 "Peter's principles."

 Some are overly clever, e.g., being first in line is a great idea except on the edge of a cliff. Lynch takes three chapters to explain how he "done it good" at Magellan. One valuable chapter details methods for picking a mutual fund from the thousands available, but most of the book is devoted to demonstrating his research into picking the 21 stocks he recommended in the January 1992 Barron's roundtable.

 Still, since the average investor will not get to talk to the CEO or visit the company in person, maybe we should all just buy Lynch's recommendations each year. A tossup.

[stockraider]

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel

 Among the library of investment books promising no-fail strategies for riches, Benjamin Graham's classic, The Intelligent Investor, offers no guarantees or gimmicks but overflows with the wisdom at the core of all good portfolio management.

 The hallmark of Graham's philosophy is not profit maximization but loss minimization. In this respect, The Intelligent Investor is a book for true investors, not speculators or day traders. He provides, "in a form suitable for the laymen, guidance in adoption and execution of an investment policy".

 This policy is inherently for the longer term and requires a commitment of effort. Where the speculator follows market trends, the investor uses discipline, research, and his analytical ability to make unpopular but sound investments in bargains relative to current asset value. Graham coaches the investor to develop a rational plan for buying stocks and bonds, and he argues that this plan must be a bulwark against emotional behavior that will always be tempting during abrupt bull and bear markets.

[stockraider]

The Essays of Warren Buffett: Lessons for Corporate America

 The definitive work concerning Warren Buffett and intelligent investment philosophy, this is a collection of Buffett's letters to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway written over the past few decades that together furnish an enormously valuable informal education. The letters distill in plain words all the basic principles of sound business practices. They are arranged and introduced by a leading apostle of the 'value' school and noted scholar, Lawrence Cunningham.

 Here in one place are the priceless pearls of business and investment wisdom, woven into a delightful narrative on the major topics concerning both managers and investors. These timeless lessons are useful to members of a wide range of professions, including law, accounting, finance and management, and provide rich teaching materials for courses in those fields.

[stockraider]

ICON- Why Sifu ICON only made 36% return this year ??
Author: Hippo Buy Signal   |   Publish date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016, 08:34 PM

Sifu icon8888 made very impressive gains on 3 stocks from beginning of this year until 17/08/2016. But why his portfolio only gain 36% during this period. I was curious and I have thought of few possible reasons why.
 
31/12/2015
17/08/2016
 
Gain
AirAsia 1.29  3.11 141.1%

TGUAN-WA 2.14  3.44  60.7% 
 
  14/07/2016
JHM  0.465 1.28  175.3%

He said he sailang/sleep body/show hand on AirAsia. This year AirAsia gain 141%, his 40% of his portfolio is invested in AirAsia, he would have made at least 56.4%.

If 5% is in JHM and 5% in TGUAN-WA, that will add a total of 11.75% to the 56.4%, total 68.15%, assuming other stocks just break-even.
There are few things that I need to clarify before I write further on the possible reasons.

1)Wish to thank Sifu Icon on his sharing. I personally benefited from from JHM (RM0.70++, still holding), TGUAN (RM3.00+, still holding), OPENSYS (RM0.27, still holding).

2)I believe he did not pump, promote and dump.

3)Past few years I was not reading ~ articles because most of them are about PAST history, talking about ROI, profit margin, etc, analyse here and there without talking concrete about the FUTURE. Early this year, I read one of his articles, and this is what I’m looking for, i.e. CONCRETE FUTURE PROSPECT. He said he will not be able to accurately forecast the figures, but he smells money. As long as the prospect is there, is good enough, because even the company management also can’t forecast the sales accurately.

4) I don’t follow him blindly. He sold JHM at RM1.28, but I bought more at that price. Investors have their own objectives. He enjoys his MFLOUR, AFFIN and BORNOIL. I enjoy my own FIBON and KESM.

5)I did not say his return is low, but because of AirAsia, TGUAN-WA and JHM, I am just curious and think of what are the possible reasons. Myself is only 20% at this point of time. 36% is no joke, very good return and almost double of mine.

6)I am not a teacher, I’m here to learn and share. Thanks to all sifu here who have shared, Mr Koay, paperplane2016, VenFx, ICON,  just to name a few.

This article is full of assumptions and DEFINITELY is NOT true in terms of figures. But what I’m trying to share is in “general”. The reason I’m using ICON’s figures because that triggered me to wonder why.

Possible Reasons Why Achieving Lower Return:

1)High Share Margin Interest Rate

Some charge as high as 9% to 10% p.a., some as low as 4.5%.

If our share margin has high interest rate, it will impact our return significantly if we have utilized the margin.

Another alternative is to refinance the house (super dangerous). Assuming we have a house fully paid, and if the refinance rate is low, we can consider. House worth RM500,000, refinance RM300,000 and use RM150k to RM200k to invest. RM200k to standby. Share Margin has margin call but this RM200k has no margin call. REMEMBER to pay the installment if not may end up no house to stay. Super dangerous if don’t know how to manage. Have to consult financial adviser.

2)Personal Loan
The interest is super high. You may see is low, but we must understand what method is being used? Simple Interest? Monthly Rate (after compounded for one year will be very high)? Personally I’m not in favour of personal loan due to super high interest rate.

3)Too Much Idle Cash in the portfolio
Although Sifu Icon bought and hold many stocks, recently he still whacked Tropicana, CIMB, MBSB?, Opensys?, Affin, DKSH, BORNOIL, etc?

How many % of cash will be better? No answer. You see few years ago ICAP was holding so much cash and missed out many opportunities.
If someone knows when the market is down or up, that guy should be trading in Futures Market; with just 5% margin you can buy 100% worth of stock.

It all depends. Some have very low cash because they have future income (from salary/business) coming in to top-up. A retire may want to hold higher cash.

4)Too many stocks

Although ICON may hit home-run in few stocks, too many stocks may cause the portfolio not having the super high return.
AirAsia, MFlour, Gadang, Tropicana, Puncak? MKH?, CIMB, MBSB, Affin, DKSH, BORNOIL, Cresbuilder, JHM, TGuan-wa, etc. He may be holding 100 stocks?

5)Too many Deadwoods
It could be throughout the years, certain stocks we are not willing to let go. It can be star performers previously or heavy loss making stocks. I have this problem of letting go, so I will leave some (super small, at least I am still holding) and then I will the heart to sell. I tell myself I still have it, so if it goes up, heart not so pain. The super small amount will not have any major impact on the overall portfolio.

6)Imbalance of stock allocation
It could be some performing stocks we buy lower value, but non-performing stocks we buy higher more.

7)Different Way of Computation
Different people use different way of computation
-Some never include their cash. As and when lack of cash, they will just top-up. This will swell the return/negative return.
-Some never include unrealized gain/loss.
-Some don’t know how to compute because they inject/withdrawal from their fund.
-Some rely on broker system figure which may not be accurate, eg rights issue, brokerage/charges, takeover offer, ICULS redemption, share transfer, may not be accurately captured on the cost.

-Some didn’t include dividend received because very tedious to keep track
-Some just pluck figure from the sky.

Therefore, ICON 36% may be computed using his own way and not the same way as ours.

8)We may keep selling when the stocks are on the way up and not enjoying the full gain.

9)ICON is just being humble on the figure. Maybe is 36% X 2.

Conclusion.

I will not know why, but just curious on the possible reasons.
Once again, thanks all that have contributed.
 

[stockraider]

Posted by stockraider > Aug 28, 2016 03:45 PM  | Report Abuse   X

Lets be realistic...the expected dividend of FLB is most likely be reduce to Rm 0.06 to Rm 0.08 per share mah...!!

Even so dividend is both reasonable and sustainable if share price is rm 1.53 loh...!!

Please do not expect Rm 0.15 per share dividend for  mah...!!
 
 
Simple analysis loh....!!
The market cap of FLB is about Rm 155m about Rm 80m consist of cash mah.....!!

Yes kyy sell....but don u think....##### to sell cheap now ??
Should buy mah.....!!

Operationally also generate good positive cashflow too loh...!!
Low interest environment....this FLB is a good buy bcos of its cash generation ability...go for a slightly longer term...good profit opportunity loh...!!
 

[stockraider]

Posted by stockraider > Aug 28, 2016 03:34 PM  | Report Abuse   X

Profit making opportunity mah.....!!

1. Improving log volume
2. Better cpo price plus increasing plantation maturity
3. Selling non core property and business...to generate big cash.
4. Oil n Gas prices improving
5. Big Shareholder battle for control of wtk
6. Huge discount of NTA to share price
7. Net cash
8. Pan Borneo highway enhance land value.

STRONG BUY LOH....!!

[stockraider]

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 28 — The slowdown in the property market is getting more apparent as we see the number of unsold units in both residential and commercial properties climb by 16 per cent in the first quarter of this year.

According to the National Property Information Centre (Napic), 18,908 of the 81,894 units of residential and commercial properties launched in the first quarter of 2016 have yet to be sold.

These unsold properties amount to RM9.4 billion and it is an increase of 15.9 per cent from the value of unsold units in the fourth quarter of last year.

“The market is indeed softer compared to a few years ago and this is due to macro-economic factors that are affecting the country now,” Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda) Institute chairman Datuk Jeffrey Ng told Malay Mail Online.

He said the move by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to strengthen the policy for banks to disburse loans because of growing household debt also did not augur well for first-time homebuyers.

“The cost of living has gone up, purchasing power is no longer strong, so whether it is to buy a property or any goods at the mall or to go for a holiday, it has become difficult because the overall velocity of Malaysians’ spending is affected,” Ng added.

Therefore, the buying activity, he said was expected to remain stagnant if not lower and this would increase the number of unsold properties in the country.

Napic’s market report for the first quarter of 2016 showed that most of the residential units (11,542) launched were priced between RM500,001 and RM1,000,000.

As for commercial units, including Small Office-Home Office (SOHO) and serviced apartments, in the same period, the report showed that most of such properties (4,808) launched were priced between RM250,001 and RM500,000.

The total number of unsold units for both types of properties (2,558 units for residential and 590 units for commercial) in the aforementioned price categories also chalked up the highest among other price ranges.

The data also singled out Johor as having the most number of units launched as well as the most number of units unsold.

The state recorded 8,605 launches, of which 2,663 units worth RM1.7 billion have been left unsold.

Putrajaya, Labuan and Perlis, according to the data, did not record any new launches for 2015 as well as the first quarter of 2016 for residential units.

“It is not like there is no demand for properties, especially for homes, because the younger generation wants to own a home but they cannot afford the price these days,” Ng said.

Datuk Jeffrey Ng said the property market is softer due to macro-economic factors coupled with a strict lending policy enforced by Bank Negara Malaysia. ― Picture courtesy of Rehda Institute

Datuk Jeffrey Ng said the property market is softer due to macro-economic factors coupled with a strict lending policy enforced by Bank Negara Malaysia. ― Picture courtesy of Rehda Institute
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Ng, who is also Sunway Reit Management chief executive, said developers cannot sell properties at a lower price either, because the price of land and construction materials have gone up.

“This, coupled with external economic factors like the slump in the oil price and depreciating ringgit, is hampering both developers from reducing the price of properties and buyers from owning one.

“Hence, the government must step in to formulate a stimulus to restore the situation,” he said.

Ng said Rehda, many times in the past, has submitted proposals to the government via the relevant ministries to address the situation.

He, however, did not reveal details of such proposals, saying that he was not authorised to divulge such information to the public.

Like Ng, Fiabci Malaysia vice president Erick Kho, who also pointed to the global economic crisis as a factor for the increase in unsold units, said the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) in April 2015 also affected the property market.

“The introduction of GST is an added burden to the challenging environment and rising living costs, resulting in only those with cash being able to make purchases,” he told Malay Mail Online.

One of the ways to overcome this slowdown, Kho said, is for developers to become more sensitive to the market and focus on “what consumers want rather than what reaps more profit.”

[stockraider]

Why Cscstel? Pure cash steel manufacturing company (281% increase in profit)

Author: itjustabouttheprofit   |   Publish date: Sun, 28 Aug 2016, 05:20 AM 

Latest quarter result:

30/6/2016 - 7.95sen
31/3/2016 - 2.43sen
31/12/2015 - 7.47sen
30/9/2015 - 2.77sen

Total - 20.88sen

Current PE ratio : 6.94 (RM1.45)
Net assets: RM2.11

Company background

CSC Steel Holdings Berhad, (formerly known as Ornasteel Holdings Bhd), was incorporated in Malaysia on 20 January 2004. After acquiring the 100% equity of both CSC Steel Sdn. Bhd. (formerly known as Ornasteel Enterprise Corporation (M) Sdn Bhd) and Group Steel Corporation (M) Sdn Bhd., CSC Steel Holdings was successfully listed on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad on 30 December 2004.

CSC Steel Holdings Berhad mainly owned by China Steel Corporation (46.374%) via its subsidiary, China Steel Asia Pacific Holdings Pte. Ltd.. China Steel Corporation currently is the largest integrated steel maker in Taiwan and 23rd largest steel producer in the world.

Product:

1) Hot rolled pickled and Oiled Steel
2) Cold Rolled Steel3) Realzinc
 Hot-Dipped Galvanized Steel
4) Realcolor / Pre-painted galvanized steel

For more information, you can refer to the corporate video on the link below:
http://www.cscmalaysia.com/video.asp

I am here to ANSWER a simple question.

Why CSCSTEL?
1)Net profit jumped by 281% for the
quarter ended 30 Jun 2015

2)Pure cash company (RM321mil or
equivalent to RM0.84 per share) and best
fundamental among other steel company

3) China government's policy to cut steel
capacity

4) Others

1) Net profit jumped by 281% compared to
previous year
As per quarter report released on last week, the company's profit have significantly improved from 10.4mil to 29.3mil (281% increased from last year)
According the quarter report, the increase in revenue is primarily due to significant increase in sales volume at substantially lower selling prices. Also the significant improvement in profit is due to lower cost of production experienced during the quarter as a result of lower Hot Rolled Steel prices. 

2)Pure cash company (RM321mil or
equivalent to RM0.84 per share) and best
fundamental among other steel company
As per 30 June 2016, the company owned RM321mil of cash with zero borrowing, which translate into RM0.84 per share. With the current share price of RM1.45, you only purchase the company business with RM0.61.
Also, the company net assets is stood at RM2.11, which is 45% discounted from the current share price of RM1.45.

Year Earning per share Dividend per share Dividend payout
2015 14.52sen 8sen 55.1%
2014 -5.72sen 3sen N/A
2013 7.81sen 7sen 89.6%
2012 7.51sen 7sen 93.2%
2011 7.92sen 7sen 88.4% 

Refer to the table above, for the past 5 years, the company have consistently paid out more than 55.1% of profit to their shareholders.

Company
PE ratio
Dividend yield
Profit margin (latest quarter)

Cscsteel 6.94 5.52% 10.87%
Annjoo -26.87 4.07% 15.80%
Masteel -15.30 1.00% 3.98%
Lsteel -14.97 N/A 2.66%
Kinstel -1.55 N/A 3.17%
Ssteel -1.8 N/A N/A (Loss)

Refer to the table above, Cscsteel have the lowest PE ratio and highest dividend yield among other steel company. For the profit margin, Cscsteel have the second highest among other competitor.

Also, Cscsteel is the only net cash and zero borrowing company among other steel company.

3) China government's policy to cut steel
capacity
As per bloomberg's news attached, China's have plans to cut steel capacity by 45million by allocate a total of 100billion yuan to help local authorities and state-owned firms. With the capacity cut, the supply of steel will be decreased. It is good for the company as most of the steel in Malaysia imported from China.
Refer to the quarter report stated in point 1, sales volume of the company have been significantly increased. As China's government have plans to cut steel capacity, i foresee that the sales volume will maintain or increased for the outcoming quarter.

4) Others
- Disposal from second largest
shareholder, Mr Gan Thian Chin
 

Let's talk about some history of Mr Gan Thian Chin.
On 21/6/2011, Mr Gan Thian Chin have become the substantial shareholder for the company.
According to the bursa annoucement, he have purchased the company's share from early 2011 until 13/1/2012.
During the period, the share price have been dropping after the release of quarter result on 30 Jun 2012. The share price have not recovered since then until recently the share price have been spiked to above RM1.30.
I have read throught the annual report since 2011 to 2015 and find out that Mr Gan did not have any relation to the management of the company.

The reason of disposing the share might be due to the share price increased near to the his entry price during 2011 and 2012.
Hence in my opinion, the disposal of Mr Gan recently provided us a good oppurtunity to collect the share at cheap price.

Trade at your own risk!!! Do research before any investment decision!! Happy trading :-)

[stockraider]

Value Investing Workshop in Ahmedabad & Pune: Registrations are now open for our Value Investing Workshop in Ahmedabad (11th Sept., Sunday) and Pune (18th Sept., Sunday). Click here to register and claim early-bird discount.

 If you think I am going to talk about some mystical way to increase your luck in stock market, then you’ll be disappointed. Being fortunate in life and in investing is largely about increasing your odds of success. And how do you increase your odds? 

“Study the principles of sound investing and work hard to implement those principles,” you might say. But is that sufficient? Studying, reading and working hard are all necessarily conditions for being successful in the stock market, however they are not sufficient. You need one more thing.

Let’s turn to world’s greatest investor to give us some clue. In his 1982 letter to investors, talking about two of his managers Phil Liesche and Ben Rosner, Warren Buffett wrote –

Both Ben and Phil ran their businesses for Berkshire with every bit of the care and drive that they would have exhibited had they personally owned 100% of these businesses. No rules were necessary to enforce or even encourage this attitude; it was embedded in the character of these men long before we came on the scene. Their good character became our good fortune. If we can continue to attract managers with the qualities of Ben and Phil, you need not worry about Berkshire’s future.

The lesson for an investor is that in stock market, you’re not just in the business of finding good businesses. Your real job is to find people who are running good businesses. That brings good fortune.

The words “we are fortunate” appears more than a dozen times in Buffett’s letters. Every time he has uttered those words, it was to describe his association with great managers running the businesses Berkshire owns.

Time and again Buffett has extolled the significance of associating with good people. In his 1987 letter, quoting Winston Churchill, he wrote-
Churchill once said, “You shape your houses and then they shape you.” We know the manner in which we wish to be shaped. For that reason, we would rather achieve a return of X while associating with people whom we strongly like and admire than realize 110% of X by exchanging these relationships for uninteresting or unpleasant ones.

It’s not sufficient to find a great business and ignore the character of the management. If you invest in a great business which is being run by crooked or dishonest management, it may bring profit to you in short term. However, on the longer term you will end up regretting your decision.

I have seen an example of this in my life. In 2008 I had a colleague who was assisting (part time) a group of people in setting up the technical infrastructure for a mobile software startup. He was working very hard because he had a full time job and he was also working nights and weekends in the startup. Although he was excited about the work, he would always complain to me about the integrity of his partners because of their questionable practices of generating funds for their operations. In the end, he was left with a personal debt of few lac without any results for his years of hard work.

Working with unscrupulous people, even if they’re on your side, is a deliberate invitation to misfortune. As Thomas Phelps wrote in his book 100 to 1 in the Stock Market – “Remember that a man who will steal for you, will steal from you.” Put simply, you can never strike a good deal with a bad person.

A wise man once said, your future is decided by the books you read and people you associate with. When you buy a stock, you decide to associate, albeit indirectly as a minority shareholder, with the owners/managers of the business. You’re essentially putting a trust on the managers running the business.

That person may be extremely good in his job, he may be a very smart businessman. He may also be growing the business profitably. But if you aren’t sure about his honesty and integrity then heed the advice of Woody Allen who said, “While the lamb may lie down with the lion, the lamb shouldn’t count on getting a whole lot of sleep.”

Once you find a good business, being run by competent and honest management, stick with it for a longer term, provided the quality of the business and management doesn’t deteriorate. Because the moment you break the partnership, you’re left with a task of finding another honest manager, which by the way isn’t an easy task.

Don’t be a fair-weather friend to the good stocks in your portfolio.

What if an honest manager suddenly turns evil? Well, chances are that he was always crooked, and you failed to judge his character. In that case, learn from it and move on.

At the same time, it’s delusional to hope that a dishonest CEO will have a change of heart. Crooks turn into saints only in movies and stories. It’s not impossible but very uncommon because people don’t change. Turnarounds seldom turn – Buffett may have said this for businesses, but it’s equally applicable to people’s character.

If a CEO has been known to display a clean character for a long time, he will seldom turn out to be of questionable character in future.

Fortune favours the brave, goes the saying. And in investing, fortune favours those who are brave enough to stick with their honest and competent partners through the ups and downs of market cycles.

fortunecookie

 Apart from investing, if you want to be fortunate in life too, you now know the drill. 

Surround yourself with people who posses the qualities that you admire. Who inspire, uplift and motivate you. Who set the right example by doing the right thing.

How do you find such people? Let them find you.

Like attracts like. Which means the best ways to find honest people is to be honest yourself. If you develop a good character yourself and practice those qualities which you’re looking in others, it attracts similar people in your life. I can personally vouch for it. The strategy has worked remarkably well in my life so far.

In the end, lady fortuna doesn’t just smile on honest business people. She likes anyone who possess a good character.

[stockraider]

fayeTan) - PANAMY: The GYARADOS (The strong Dragon Pokemon) of Bursa Malaysia

Author: FayeTan   |   Publish date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016, 09:54 AM

1. 10th consecutive yearly earnings growth. Seriously, how many companies in Bursa Malaysia can register 10 consecutive quarters of yearly earnings growth exceeding 6%? I don't do the whole checking on the 900+ counters in Malaysia but I am quite confident to say that probably less than 5% of the stocks can deliver such result. Panasonic Malaysia (PANAMY) delivered and it did it in a stunning way, when not much investors know about this stock.

2. 1QFY17 earnings surge 20% against last year. PANAMY released their result yesterday and its 1QFY17 net profit jumped 20% to RM38.3m. Reason behind the increase in earnings is solid revenue growth of 12% to RM298m. Details of the revenue growth is explained below (copied directly from their result announcement)...

"The higher revenue was led by stronger sales in domestic and export markets for both Home Appliances and Fan products. Sales of Home Appliances products grew by 15% as compared to the previous year’s corresponding period mainly contributed by the introduction of new range of kitchen appliances namely the multi-food processor and juicer  in this quarter and also sales from the transfer of rice cooker business from Thailand to  Malaysia  which commenced towards the second half of the previous financial year.

Fan sales grew by approximately 8% as compared to the previous year’s corresponding period. The improvement in sales was mainly seen in ceiling fans products with the introduction of new DC and LED models in the domestic market. Revenue for the current quarter was also led by market expansion in Asian countries which contribute to higher export sales in Fan products."

3. Next quarter to give at least another 15.0 sen dividend. Usually the Company pays its 1st interim dividend in 2Q and I think 15 sen (same like last year) is easily achievable.

4. Still cum dividend of RM1.24 if you buy it before 6-Sep-2016. The best thing is the next dividend payment is super high at RM1.24 and the stock is still cum dividend. Ex-date is 6-Sep while the payment date is 23-Sep.

5. Possibly the highest net cash per share counters listed in Bursa at RM9.82 per share. Total cash is RM596m with zero debt. No of shares is 60.7m. So net cash is RM9.82 per share. I might be wrong by saying it is the highest but it is quite certain to be the top 5 highest net cash per share.

6. Conclusion: PANAMY is the GYARADOS of Bursa Malaysia. Gyarados is one of the strongest Pokemon for those who play Pokemon GO. In terms of earnings delivery, I believe that PANAMY has rightfully earned the status of GYARADOS as its earnings growth can only be matched by very few stocks in Malaysia.

[Oly Shyte]

fayeTan) - PANAMY: The GYARADOS (The strong Dragon Pokemon) of Bursa Malaysia

Author: FayeTan   |   Publish date: Thu, 25 Aug 2016, 09:54 AM

1. 10th consecutive yearly earnings growth. Seriously, how many companies in Bursa Malaysia can register 10 consecutive quarters of yearly earnings growth exceeding 6%? I don't do the whole checking on the 900+ counters in Malaysia but I am quite confident to say that probably less than 5% of the stocks can deliver such result. Panasonic Malaysia (PANAMY) delivered and it did it in a stunning way, when not much investors know about this stock.

2. 1QFY17 earnings surge 20% against last year. PANAMY released their result yesterday and its 1QFY17 net profit jumped 20% to RM38.3m. Reason behind the increase in earnings is solid revenue growth of 12% to RM298m. Details of the revenue growth is explained below (copied directly from their result announcement)...

"The higher revenue was led by stronger sales in domestic and export markets for both Home Appliances and Fan products. Sales of Home Appliances products grew by 15% as compared to the previous year’s corresponding period mainly contributed by the introduction of new range of kitchen appliances namely the multi-food processor and juicer  in this quarter and also sales from the transfer of rice cooker business from Thailand to  Malaysia  which commenced towards the second half of the previous financial year.

Fan sales grew by approximately 8% as compared to the previous year’s corresponding period. The improvement in sales was mainly seen in ceiling fans products with the introduction of new DC and LED models in the domestic market. Revenue for the current quarter was also led by market expansion in Asian countries which contribute to higher export sales in Fan products."

3. Next quarter to give at least another 15.0 sen dividend. Usually the Company pays its 1st interim dividend in 2Q and I think 15 sen (same like last year) is easily achievable.

4. Still cum dividend of RM1.24 if you buy it before 6-Sep-2016. The best thing is the next dividend payment is super high at RM1.24 and the stock is still cum dividend. Ex-date is 6-Sep while the payment date is 23-Sep.

5. Possibly the highest net cash per share counters listed in Bursa at RM9.82 per share. Total cash is RM596m with zero debt. No of shares is 60.7m. So net cash is RM9.82 per share. I might be wrong by saying it is the highest but it is quite certain to be the top 5 highest net cash per share.

6. Conclusion: PANAMY is the GYARADOS of Bursa Malaysia. Gyarados is one of the strongest Pokemon for those who play Pokemon GO. In terms of earnings delivery, I believe that PANAMY has rightfully earned the status of GYARADOS as its earnings growth can only be matched by very few stocks in Malaysia.

Maxis - Badly advised......

[CurryLee]

Ask Sifu raider...dancomech still can buy now? TP rm16.00 can?

[Oly Shyte]

Congrats sifu for such an outstanding stocks. Pray hard for my Kseng. Cheers!!!

Tuesday, 30 Aug 2016

5:38PM  KSENG     1H net loss 1.344 million

Which sifu gave you another wrongly advised to invest in KSENG? stockraider or paperplane3? 
 

[king]

To save our nation, both Najib and Umno/BN must go
 najibabdulrazak corruption ge14
 5 comments      Koon Yew Yin     Published Today 10:52 am     Updated Today 11:35 am

222
 
COMMENT The hot talk in town is that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak may resign soon and that Umno and BN will go into the next general election (GE14) without him at the helm. This story seems to have appeared, probably because of an article by Dr Lim Teck Ghee, which appeared recently.

Titled ‘Why Prime Minister Najib is on his way out’, this article has resulted in numerous comments and feedback from the public. Some commentators have agreed with Lim, who incidentally is a friend of mine, and his prediction that Najib will call it a day and leave office ahead of GE14 so as to give Umno an advantage in the election.

But others have disagreed with him. So strong is the public disapproval and disgust with what has happened in the 1MDB case, as well as that unbelievably gigantic donation into the PM's personal bank account, that many Malaysians want to see Najib pay the price for these two scandals, which are costing our taxpayers billions of ringgit.

I am with the other Malaysians who hope that the prime minister will not be able to get away scot-free. Or, in the words of Lim (on right in photo), be able to engineer “the great escape” from these two scandals that have made headlines around the world for the wrong reasons.

One thing I must say about the piece is that Lim was trying to be a good social scientist and was not directly putting out his personal views on the prime minister's integrity or leadership.

Misuse and absuse of power by Umno and BN

Lim has already written enough in the past on the misrule and abuse of power by Umno and BN. Those of us who know him and those who are familiar with his writings know where he is coming from and what he is getting at in this most recent article.

But I agree that his article opens up lots of questions. Not only about what Najib is going to do next or when he is planning to go. Also, what Umno's supreme council leadership may be discussing, quietly among themselves and behind the back of the prime minister.

As Lim says, leaders from Umno and BN must be nervously looking at the 1MDB mess and wondering if this mother of all financial scandals may have a final eruption that will take Najib down, as well as Umno/BN with him.

To me, and many thinking people in this country, it is simple.

This is that both Najib and Umno/BN must go. We have given them a lifetime of being in office and provided them with positions, power, privileges and perks. And what have we got in return? This is a question that every Malaysian must ask himself and herself.

What we have got from Umno/BN is a rotten deal. Let me enumerate some of the details of this rotten deal that have come with this lifetime of BN rule.

Piratisation, Cowgate, bailouts galore, brain drain, millions of foreign migrants, a sub-standard education system, GST, unaffordable housing, unemployed and unemployable graduates, super-cronies, grand corruption engaged in by several Tan Sri, sick man Proton and approved permits (APs) - the list of abuses and cases of bad governance can fill up several books.

Cost of bailing out GLCs

In 2012, when my book on ‘Road Map for Achieving Vision 2020’ was published, it was revealed to readers that various mega projects, such as the commission for the purchase of the Scorpene submarines, Eurocopter deal, the National Palace project, etc, had cost taxpayers more than RM20 billion, while the cost of bailing out GLCs, starting with Bank Bumiputra in 1970 and ending with the bailing out of Proton and MAS in 2006, had cost us close to RM70 billion.

I am sure that Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Muhyiddin Yassin of the new party, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), realise this too, since they were part of the rotten structure of Umno/BN. But understandably, they do not want to talk about or revisit this past record of structural rot and defects in Umno/BN today.

What is important, though, is that these two key Malay leaders have now openly admitted that the problem of greed and corruption, abuse of power and cronyism is embedded in Umno and cannot be rooted out or defeated from within.

Only with the rejection of Umno/BN – and not just the departure of Najib – can Malaysians hope to have a brighter future. Only with a change in government – after giving Umno/BN a lifetime of opportunities – can Malaysia avoid falling into the list of failed states that we are rapidly plunging towards.

Principally, it is our fellow Malay citizens who must realise that they have been taken for a ride and betrayed by Umno. There are now three new Malay parties with leaders of worth and integrity - PKR, Amanah and Bersatu – that can replace Umno.

Let us all work together to get rid of Najib and Umno/BN, once and for all.

KOON YEW YIN, a retired chartered engineer, is a philanthropist



Read more: https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/354269#ixzz4IyOSIkA7

[stockraider]

Icon) Affin - Why I Switched Some of My Air Asia To This Stock
Author: Icon8888   |   Publish date: Thu, 1 Sep 2016, 11:48 AM

1. Introduction
Since I bought Air Asia in March 2016, the stock has performed well. At one point, it made up closed to 40% of my portfolio. For risk management purpose, last week I disposed of some to reduce exposure.
I noticed that Affin reported EPS of 7.1 sen in latest quarter. I don't know whether the group can repeat the same performance going forward. However, the stock has come down by quite a lot and past few quarters' EPS was quite stable. I decided to park my Air Asia sale proceeds with this stock. 

Hopefully the group can continue to do well in coming quarters, with quarterly EPS of at least 5 to 6 sen (my expectation for 2016 and 2017, plucked from the air).
In 2018, I will set higher expectation as hopefully economy can gather strength, benefitting all banking stocks. 

2. Rare Opportunity To Own Bank Stocks At Trough Valuation
I always have a soft spot for banking stocks. They are tightly supervised by Bank Negara (stringent disclosure requirement), allowed by the government to have healthy profit margin (to nurture a strong banking system), and as a proxy to the economy, have excellent growth prospects.
However, in the past few years, I did not have opportunity to own any bank stocks. Banks were not cheap. Many traded at PER of closed to 15 times. In addition, most banks' earnings have grown tremendously. For example, CIMB's net profit was RM782 mil in FY2003. Ten years later (2013), it has ballooned to RM4.5 billion. In my opinion, prospect for further growth was not exciting. 

Things took a dramatic turn by end of 2014. Due to collapse of oil price and the ensuing economic downturn, many banks were adversely affected. Affin has not been spared. Its net profit declined from RM593 mil in FY2014 to RM369 mil in FY2015. Share price also took a massive beating. The stock used to trade as high as RM4.50. It is now trading at RM2.15.
For me, this is a golden opportunity to gain exposure in banking stocks. 

3. Corporate Governance
Before you invest in a bank, you must be comfortable with its corporate governance standard.
During Tan Sri Zeti's tenure as Governor, she put in place various measures to strengthen corporate governance of financial insititutions. Among them are requirement that individual and corporate shareholders' equity interest cannot exceed certain level. Bank Negara also encouraged local banks to bring in foreign shareholders as minority partners.
Affin's foreign partner is Hong Kong based Bank of East Asia, which holds 23.5% equity interest in the company. It has two representaives, Ignatius Chan and Joseph Yuk on the Board of Directors. I believe the practice of bringing in minority partners with substantial equity interest should provide effective check and balance to safeguard the interest of all stakeholders. This is not only true for Affin, but also for all other banks.

4. Historical Profitability
Key observations :-
(a) Once I laid out all the figures in a spreadsheet, it becomes very easy to understand a company's past performance.
(b) As pointed out by many analysts, Affin's cost to income ratio is a bit high. I have to admit that there is room for improvement. However, this would have already been reflected in its share price, what is there for me to complain ? However, I do hope that they can try harder to bring it down. No matter what we do, it is always good to be more efficient, right ? 
(c) I found their asset quality acceptable. Of course they are not in the same class as Public Bank. But it seemed that they have been able to come out of the tumultous 2015 relatively unscatched. Certain banks (for example, CIMB) has performed even worse. 

5. Dividend Policy
The company mentioned in its 2015 annual report that it is committed to pay out at least 50% of its Company level PAT as dividend. Based on latest DPS of 8 sen and market price of RM2.15, dividend yield is 3.7%..Y.

In the longer run, I expect Affin to generate higher EPS. During the period from 2010 to 2014, EPS ranged from 32 sen to 43 sen. It used to distribute dividend as high as 15 sen. If that happens again (several years down the road), dividend yield based on current price will be closed to 7%.
(Note : If you are not prepared to hold long term, all the above mentioned vision, hope and expectation are meaningless to you. If that is the case, you should give this stock a pass and move on to something more exciting)

6. Take Care of The Downside, And The Upside Will Take Care of Itself
The main decision I invest in Affin is because I think it is defensive at current level. I am not saying that it has reached rock bottom. There is a possibility that it can go down further as EPF has been consistently selling in the past few weeks (after the fantastic EPS of 7 sen was announced).   
The reason I said that it is defensive is because when I look at the chart and ask myself the question :
"By buying now at RM2.15 at closed to bottom of earning cycle and at PBR of 0.5 times, what is the chance that I am buying at the peak ? What is the chance that Affin will forever stay below RM2.15 and never go above that level again ?" 

The answer is "closed to zero chance".
NO WAY I WILL SUFFER PERMANENT LOSS OF CAPITAL IN THIS STOCK, IF I AM WILLING TO HOLD IT FOR LONG TERM
When I look at things from this perspective, then the decision to invest in Affin becomes very easy to make. If you put money in fixed deposit, you get 3% return. Affin at current level is as safe as fixed deposit (for long term investors), and the return is likely to be much higher than 3% (as mentioned above, Affin has committed to pay out at least 50% of its profit as dividend).
It is a no brainer. 

7. Disposals By EPF
During the past few weeks, EPF disposed more than 7 mil shares, paring down its holdings from 147 mil shares to 140 mil shares.
I don't know why EPF is so busy selling. Does EPF know something everybody else doesn't know ? Is it selling because the coming quarter result will be horrible ?

Deep in my heart, I think that is very unlikely :-
(a) Next financial quarter will end on 30 September 2016. We are now only in August. As such, nobody knows exactly how much Affin will make in the coming quarter. Not even the CFO and CEO; and
(b) If EPF is indeed selling ahead of bad results, it has full three months ahead of it to sell. There is no need to sell so aggressively as though there will be no tomorrow.
EPF must be selling because of some other reasons. If that is the case, I shouldn't give too much weightage to their action. I buy stocks based on earnings and valuation.

In any event, I am more than happy to increase exposure if result continues to be good and price keeps dropping. I hope EPF will continue to sell more. 

8. Proxy To Oil Price Recovery (If It Happens)
2016 has been a good year for Airline stocks as oil price has been low. However, going into 2017, nobody can tell for sure how oil will perform. Certain people invest in oil and gas stocks in preparation for that possibility.

However, I prefer Banking stocks as proxy to potential oil price recovery. Malaysia is a net oil exporter. Increase in oil price will increase government revenue, has positive effect on consumer sentiment as well as make Bursa attractive to foreign funds. All the positive factors mentioned above will spill over to benefit banking stocks.
I think this is more superior than gaining direct exposure to oil and gas stocks. If oil price does not perform, oil and gas stocks will be stuck at the doldrum, but Banking stocks can still chuck along nicely.

Limited downside but possibility of decent upside. That is what l like.

[stockraider]

Yes Leech Tech says accumulate Affin at Rm 2.16 n below....!!

[stockraider]

You must believe in price charts - Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Publish date: Wed, 31 Aug 2016, 11:21 AM

A share price chart is a roadmap to show the direction of a share price. Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is “likely” to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.

There are a few patterns in chartings which all investors should know in order to make more money or to reduce losses. For examples, an up or down trending stock, an inverted head and shoulders, a cup and handle patterns and etc.
About 30 years ago, my wife and I attended a charting course conducted by Dr Neoh Soon Kean who was then a lecturer in University of Malaysia. He is the producer of “Stock Performance Guide” which gives you a brief summary of each listed companies in Bursa Malaysia.

For the purpose of this investment lesson, I will elaborate on the chart pattern of cup and handle.
On 10th August 2016, I posted the article “Gadang is showing a strong buying signal” when its price was Rm 2.50 per share. The chart was showing the formation of a cup and handle which is a strong signal for buying.

The price of Gadang closed at Rm 2.87 on 30th Aug 2016, a rise of 37sen, about 15% in 20 days. You better believe in Charts especially if the stock is supported by strong fundamentals.

You can see its annual profit of 40 sen per share as shown on its recent announcement in Bursa.

On 25th Aug 2016, the company made a multiple proposals, the details of which you can read from Bursa announcement.  Briefly they are:
1. Proposed share split
2. Proposed bonus issue of shares
3. Proposed bonus issue of warrants
4. Proposed ESOS
5. Proposed increase of authorized share capital

You must remember that giving out free convertible warrants is like giving cash to all the shareholders because you can easily sell the warrants. Moreover, the warrant price will go up in tandem with the mother share price because the conversion price is fixed.
Although I believe its share price will continue to rise, I am obliged to tell you that I have a lot of Gadang shares and I am not asking you to buy to support the share price.   

Calvin comments:

This is another Overly Bullish (but reckless call by Uncle KYY). As a responsble member of ~ forum I want to caution all newbies, fellow investors, speculators & blind gamblers in ~ forum. Let me give you the important reasons to be very very careful if you want to punt in this Gadang share.

These are Calvin's observations & conclusions on Gadang (please read and consider carefully by yourself). Don't get carried away by the euphoria of rising price chart:

1) Gadang  is now at multiyear highs. From below 60 cts in year 2012 to 2016 now at almost Rm2.90 - Gadang is now up a whopping 500%!! Will it go higher? How high? As of now no body knows. But it has grown almost 100% per year for the last 4 years. As Gadang is into construction & property (both cyclicals) the price has now run far ahead of its fundamental. All the future earnings are now priced in.

2) According to Dr Neoh Soon Kean's Stock Investment Book - Bonus Issue, Rights Issue, Share Split & Warrant - DO NOT ADD TRUE VALUE TO A SHARE. What will add value? According to Dr. Neoh's Monthly Digest - repeated time and time again are these 3 yardsticks - 1) HIGH NTA   2) LOW P/E  3) GOOD DIVIDEND. So Uncle KYY misquoted Dr Neoh here. In fact Dr. Neoh warned and warned again about JAWS 1, JAWS 2 & MORE JAWS In Bursa. What he meant was Sharks in Bursa pushing up share prices to draw in naive "lambs for the slaughter" again & again!

3) See How Many Got Conned in Fiamma. Fiamma announed Bonus Issue, share split & Fiamma Warrant.
Many chased Fiamma to over Rm2.50 in hot pursuit because of Bonus Issue & Warrants.

After the dust has settled many suffered horrendous losses.
See Fiamma price chart belowdjusted for bonus you can SEE Fiamma's price chart. It skyrocketed from around 57 cts at beginning of Jan 2016 then then back to square one again and even lower in price at only 56.5 cts (latest closing price). Will Gadang ends like Fiamma?

As Uncle Koon himself admitted    "All  investors must know that there is currently an oversupply of properties in every town and cities in Malaysia.  Property prices are constantly coming down. As a result, all property companies will be reporting less profit in the next few years.

However, some property companies may report good profit now, but the profit is from property sales of previous years. For example, MKH 3rd quarter profit announcement as shown below."

Does Uncle KYY know not that Gadang is building the white elephant called "CAPITAL CITY 21"?

Actually I have been watching the progress of Capital City 21 as I own one house nearby. Todate the sales are anemic. The temporal surge in bookings might be aborted just like G Residence of GSB!

If so - Gadang will change name to "Gajah" - the white elephant. All better watch out!

4) Since Gadang share price has surged so much both Franklin Fund & Gadang Insiders are Selling & Selling!
See
MR BOEY TAK KONG 

Disposed  ...................08/08/2016......................................................Rm2.50............................................73,200 shares
Disposed.....................08/08/2016......................................................Rm2.51...........................................50,000 shares

Notice of Person Ceasing (29C)
GADANG HOLDINGS BHD
Particulars of Substantial Securities Holder

Name FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC.
Address One Franklin Parkway
 San Mateo
 CA 94403-1906
 United States.
Franklin Resources even ceased to be a substantial share holder of Gadang now.

5) I warned Uncle Koon on Latitude when it was peakish at Rm7.00. Yet by his incessant promotion to trap die hard foolish and fool hardy  gamblers Latitude reached Rm8.00. Then?
Then Latitude crashed below Rm5.00

See Price Chart
LATITUDE TREE HOLDINGS BERHAD (7006)

CALVIN IS CORRECT LOH....!!
HE IS A GOOD CHRISTIAN TO FORWARNED AUNTY N UNCLE...!!

[DR KIM]

MORE  COMINGGGG 

[ahbah]

Hong Leong Investment Bank research head Sia Ket Ee says the 2016 reporting season remains a disappointing one, although recording slight improvement over the previous quarter, with the same 42% of Hong Leong’s universe falling short of expectations while a higher percentage 17%, surprised on the upside.

Against consensus, it was almost a similar trend where 46% of the companies were below while 11% were above expectations.

In his strategy piece, Sia says corporate earnings continue on recessionary mode despite resilient gross domestic growth (GDP) growth at 4% in the second quarter.

[zigzag]

Hong Leong Investment Bank research head Sia Ket Ee says the 2016 reporting season remains a disappointing one, although recording slight improvement over the previous quarter, with the same 42% of Hong Leong’s universe falling short of expectations while a higher percentage 17%, surprised on the upside.

Against consensus, it was almost a similar trend where 46% of the companies were below while 11% were above expectations.

In his strategy piece, Sia says corporate earnings continue on recessionary mode despite resilient gross domestic growth (GDP) growth at 4% in the second quarter.

recession, yes, i can feel it

[zigzag]

Hong Leong Investment Bank research head Sia Ket Ee says the 2016 reporting season remains a disappointing one, although recording slight improvement over the previous quarter, with the same 42% of Hong Leong’s universe falling short of expectations while a higher percentage 17%, surprised on the upside.

Against consensus, it was almost a similar trend where 46% of the companies were below while 11% were above expectations.

In his strategy piece, Sia says corporate earnings continue on recessionary mode despite resilient gross domestic growth (GDP) growth at 4% in the second quarter.

4%?
i doubt it, just like many people doubt China's GDP figures

[Oly Shyte]

Tuesday, 30 Aug 2016

5:38PM  KSENG     1H net loss 1.344 million

Which sifu gave you another wrongly advised to invest in KSENG? stockraider or paperplane3? 

I am waiting for an answer? 

[stockraider]

I am waiting for an answer? 

Don busy body mah...just stick to ur spsetia loh.....!!
Also stick to kesm mah....!!

Kseng ....u must be more analytical mah....the latest already qtr make monies mah....!!
Just that the earlier qtr got impairment mah....!!
Quite normal....one time adjustment....loh...!!

Superdaddy understand....raider understand...but oly don loh....!!

[paperplane3]

Oly is empty tong. Never study account and wanna act smart. Empty tong oly.

[stockraider]

EVERGREEN BUY......?? BREAKOUT

Double bottom breakout

USD is strong now

Breakout from oversold region

Quoted from http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/09/03/eye-on-stock-evergreen-fibreboard/

The breakout suggests the recent correction mode has ended and theoretically, the next phase will be a new leg of uptrend.

Elsewhere, the oscillator per cent K and the oscillator per cent D of the daily slow-stochastic momentum index were on the rise. It had triggered a short-term buy at the very oversold territory on late last month.
Mirroring the trend, the 14-day relative strength index rose from an extremely oversold single-digit reading of eight on Tuesday to settle at the 61 points level yesterday.

The daily moving average convergence/divergence histogram climbed over the daily signal line to issue a buy call yesterday.

Against the pretty promising technical signal, prices are poised to sustain the upward momentum in the short-term amid follow-through buying. Initial resistance is expected at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) of RM1.04.

 A breach of the uppermost 200-day SMA of RM1.18, followed by a successful penetration of the relatively strong barrier of RM1.21 would lead to a re-test of the historical peak of RM1.707, or the bulls exploring the unknown territory.

The recent lows of 73.5 sen will act as a base for the next leg of uptrend, also an important floor. Evergrn was adjusted for one-for-two bonus issue in January

[Oly Shyte]

Don busy body mah...just stick to ur spsetia loh.....!!
Also stick to kesm mah....!!

Kseng ....u must be more analytical mah....the latest already qtr make monies mah....!!
Just that the earlier qtr got impairment mah....!!
Quite normal....one time adjustment....loh...!!

Superdaddy understand....raider understand...but oly don loh....!!

Correct me if I'm wrong shouldn't we avoid a rugi stock and focus to other profit stock at least for last month quarterly financial result? In my opinion, he's been badly advised............again! 

[Oly Shyte]

Oly is empty tong. Never study account and wanna act smart. Empty tong oly.

Hmm..... Study account and still fail horrendously at SGB? How much you bought for all your certs? 

[stockraider]

Correct me if I'm wrong shouldn't we avoid a rugi stock and focus to other profit stock at least for last month quarterly financial result? In my opinion, he's been badly advised............again! 

This is an undervalue very cash rich company holding tonnes of cash mah.....!!
Long run could make very big monies mah....!!
Superdaddy knew.....raider also know mah.....!!
That's why superdaddy got big position mah....!!

[stockraider]

Solar manufacturers that are ramping up production now face a looming glut of panels, forcing companies to adjust or face dire consequences.

Trina Solar Ltd., Canadian Solar Inc. and JinkoSolar Holding Co. are among the suppliers boosting output at factories that will expand global capacity by 18 per cent this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Oversupply appears to be business as usual in the solar industry
.
The manufacturers are locked in a race to build bigger and more advanced factories to crank out panels faster and cheaper. Just as they start rolling off the lines, demand is expected to slow, especially in China where the government rolled back subsidies last month. Prices are slumping, and suppliers expect margins to slip as well. It’s a pattern we’ve seen before, after a global oversupply five years ago drove dozens of companies out of business.

“Oversupply appears to be business as usual in the solar industry,” said Jenny Chase, New Energy Finance’s lead solar analyst.

Related
Ascending tech dominates S&P 500 like no time since dot-com bust
Canadian Solar Inc shares jump 19 per cent, but ‘headwinds’ exist as demand weakens
SolarCity Corp slashing costs, including CEO pay, to bring in line with reduced outlook
.
The solar industry went through a similar boom-bust cycle after capacity grew faster than demand, triggering a two-year slump starting in late 2011. The result was a wave of consolidation as prices plunged and panelmakers’ losses piled up. Cheap panels also helped spur demand for more solar power, eventually prompting the survivors to expand production.

“These companies are all fighting for market share and their tendency is to build more and more capacity,” Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc., said in an interview. “Ultimately that drives down prices and margins for everyone.”

Canadian Solar, the second-largest manufacturer, is building a a 350-megawatt facility in Brazil, and JinkoSolar is expanding output from a 450-megawatt factory that went into operation in Malaysia last year.

This comes as demand slows in China, the world’s largest market, where the government is reducing subsidies for solar farms commissioned after June 30. That fuelled a rush of projects in the first half of the year as developers added as much as 22 gigawatts before the subsidy expired, said Hugh Bromley, a New Energy Finance analyst. With the lower subsidy in place, he expects about 6 to 8 gigawatts of new solar projects in the second half.

Trina, the world’s largest panel maker, said Tuesday that shipments will fall as much as 6.5 per cent in the third quarter, to between 1.55 and 1.65 gigawatts. At the same time, the company has increased production capacity 7.1 per cent after opening a 500-megawatt factory in Thailand in March. Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. said Tuesday that it expects shipments to slip as much as 54 per cent in the current quarter, after 60 per cent of its panels went to China in the second quarter.

“Chinese solar manufacturers now face tougher competition due to a supply capacity increase and a decrease in market demand,” Yingli Green Energy Vice President and Chief Climate Officer Jingfeng Xiong said during a call Tuesday with analysts.

To be clear, demand for solar is continuing to rise, but that growth is slowing. Global installations this year may reach about 67 gigawatts, up 27 per cent from last year, according to New Energy Finance. In 2017, it’s expected to increase by 25 per cent, and in 2018 it will rise 23 per cent.

It’s hard to pinpoint whether supply has already eclipsed demand since companies won’t report whether their shipments have been impacted by the reduced subsidy in China until the fourth quarter. Evidence is mounting, however, that the glut has already arrived. Panel prices are at a record low of 44.7 cents a watt after plunging 10 per cent in the past six weeks. Prices may fall another 15 per cent by the end of the year, according to Patrick Jobin, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG.

While the last supply glut ravaged the solar industry, it may have less impact this time because the supply chain is more consolidated. The market has fundamentally changed, with 90 per cent of sales going to a handful of the biggest companies, compared with 66 per cent four years ago, said Xiaoting Wang, a New Energy Finance analyst. Industry leaders like Trina and Canadian Solar have expanded beyond manufacturing, diversifying their revenue by developing solar farms.

While manufacturers may have known they were speeding toward a glut, it’s not easy to take their foot off the gas. Many production costs are fixed, so cutting output would drive down margins and erode their market share.

“They would essentially be giving up the race,” said Chase of New Energy Finance. “And nobody wants to do that — even though collectively it’s suicide.”

Canadian Solar is one of the few companies that has announced it is scaling back its manufacturing expansion, adding 5.8 gigawatts of capacity this year instead of an initial target of 6.4 gigawatts.

“Canadian Solar’s objective this year is to play safe, not to grow our market share, but to improve our margin structure,” Canadian Solar Chief Executive Officer Shawn Qu said during an Aug. 18 conference call with analysts.

It’s unclear how long a supply glut may last. Wang, of New Energy Finance, said it may take two years to work through surplus capacity.

The key is how the companies react, whether they take a cautious approach or continue the race to build more factories, according to Merry Xu, chief financial officer at Trina.

“It just depends on the strategic approaches of our peers,” Xu said on a call with analysts Tuesday. “We do hope that this imbalance won’t last very long.”

Bloomberg.com

[SUPERDADDY]

Very sorry that my investment in Kseng has been a hot topic of discussion raised by sifu Oly. I've always like Kseng and have been following its up and down in the last 20 years or more. Have never been regret buying this stock all this while and sifu Raiders and all the other sifus in this forum has indeed been great advisers each with their own points and views. Happy investing to all sifus and cheers!!!

[Oly Shyte]

This is an undervalue very cash rich company holding tonnes of cash mah.....!!
Long run could make very big monies mah....!!
Superdaddy knew.....raider also know mah.....!!
That's why superdaddy got big position mah....!!

Latest quarter result rugi but gip dividend RM40.00 so that you guys can continue to support the company. 

Thank you guys - from Kseng 

[Oly Shyte]

Very sorry that my investment in Kseng has been a hot topic of discussion raised by sifu Oly. I've always like Kseng and have been following its up and down in the last 20 years or more. Have never been regret buying this stock all this while and sifu Raiders and all the other sifus in this forum has indeed been great advisers each with their own points and views. Happy investing to all sifus and cheers!!!

Thank you SUPERDADDY for your polite attitude. You are totally different from the rude paperplane3. Well maybe your upbringing was better than his.....
On Maxis you been ill advised and on KSeng, they just made a loss in their latest quarter. Chart wise showing downtrend. Why not don't love the company but focus on other potential money making stocks?

[stockraider]

Most investors are risk averse. They want good return but shun risk and try hard to avoid risks most of the time. They want to protect their capitals, and hence many are attracted to the sale pitch of “Capital Protected Funds”, (risky) bond funds, like what Miss Y above likes, which are actually poor investments which cap the upside potential of investors, with not much better downside protection than equity. Think about the structured products of the late 2000, CDS, CMS, CDS2, etc., when investors lost most of their capitals.

Fundamental investing and investing for dividends is a much better alternative and inherently a low risk investing strategy suitable for most people. You can see Mr. X knows it well too.

Dr. Neoh Soon Kean, in his book “Stock Market Investment in Malaysia and Singapore” gave dividend as the only reason that drives the share price as shown in his statements as follow:

“THE VALUE OF A SHARE DEPENDS ON ITS FUTURE DIVIDENDS”
“THE VALUE OF A SHARE DEPENDS ON ITS FUTURE DIVIDENDS”

He said, share is just a form of investment. Except for special situations, the return that they can provide must bear some relationship to the alternative returns that investors can get, for example fixed deposit rate, return from rental in property investments, etc. The dividend yield (DY) investing in a share must bear some resemblance to the returns from alternative investments.

What is the use of earnings, and profit growth?

Most stock market players, including institutional investors, fund managers focus too much on profit, and profit growth as an assessment of how good is a company, and the use of price-earnings ratio (PE) is the most common method in market valuation. Investment bankers and professional analysts also like to use these earnings to cloud your judgment. Unless earnings are higher than the cost of capitals and are converted to cash in the pocket of shareholders, it remains as a castle in the air.
What is the use of these doggy earnings and earnings forecasts?

Why is dividend important

“A stock dividend is something tangible-it is not earnings projection; it is something solid, in hand. A stock dividend is a true return on the investment. Everything else is hope and speculation.” Richard Russell

Dividend is a real thing. You get 40.2 sen per share dividend from investing in SAM. You pocket it, use it for consumptions, or reinvest in the same or other dividend shares and in return, get more dividends.

During the bear market, SAM share may go down to RM5.00, but you would not feel too scare as the dividend yield then is more than 8%. In other words, it can provide a “floor” for share price when bear stampedes, and you won’t get too worried and still be able to sleep well:

When the market is too hot, dividend yield keeps us in close touch with the real world. London Biscuits doesn’t give you any dividend now. You wouldn’t want to chase its share when it went up above RM1.00 with news that they would reduce their huge capital expenses finally, like what others do. You won’t buy XingQuan shares despite they have announced beautiful earnings, increased in earnings, and even good cash flows, and have heaps of cash in their balance sheet much higher than its share price, will you?

Last but not least, dividend yield prevents you from being side-tracked by events which have little or no real benefits to you as a shareholder, such as bonus issues, share splits, free warrants, property injections by major shareholders, merger and acquisition, high growth, and getting of big contracts which keep on losing money like before etc. like these ones:

What would have happened to your investment outcome if you have chased the bonus issues and shares split plus “free warrants” of Asia Media, Bonia, Fimma Holding etc., the numerous bonus issues of EAH, Instacom, etc. when these companies hardly pay any dividend. Speculators, no, they can't be classified as investors, lost not only their pants, their underwear also, chasing the share prices up when those corporate exercises were announced, and their share prices eventually fell sharply..

Why not capital gain?

But why haven’t I talk about capital gain? Isn’t capital gain also important as it is the second part of the total return equation?
Capital gain is of course important. But what logical reason you can give for the share price to go up? I know share price can go up when someone “fries” it. But do you think he does that to enrich you? Very few smart souls benefit from the "frying", and most, more than 90% I suspect, became * again and again, and lost their pants.

The share price will likely to go up because of the growth in dividend. The management must manage the company well so that the company can pay growing dividends. That is the role of management, not all the time thinking about how to jack up share price by carrying out exercises which do not increase shareholder value in the long-term, but merely benefit the insiders, syndicates, manipulators in the short-term.

The dividend of Apollo was 7.4 sen in 2008 when it was trading at about RM2.50. The dividend yield was 3.0%. Its dividend has increased to 30 sen now and at RM5.95 at the close today on 6th September 2016, an even more attractive DY of 5.0% when the share price has risen by more than 100% in 7 years.

Apollo has not given any bonus issues, share split or “free” warrants, the number of shares remains at 80m, but they are able to pay 3.4 times dividends from 7.4 sen seven years ago to 30 sen now, without having to issue a single new share, hence diluting its EPS, nor borrow a single sen from the bank?

What does the research show?

Robert Shiller examined the predictability of annual S&P composite returns in 1986 and found that dividend yields explained a significant 16% of the variation of returns in the 1946-1983 period.

Fama &French (1988) reported that dividend yields explain 25% of the 2 to 4-year returns. In economics, unlike science, a R-square of 25% is a significant number.

In 1978, Krisna Ramasawamy and Robert Litzenberger established a significant correlation between dividend yield and subsequent stock returns.

More recently, James O’Shaughnessy has shown that in the period 1951 through 1994, the 50 highest-dividend-yielding large capitalized stocks had a return that was 1.7% higher than the market.

Jeremy Siegel, in his book “Stocks for the Long Run”, has further confirmed the out-performance of high dividend stocks from his research using data from 1957 to 2012 with striking results. The highest dividend stocks returned a CAGR of 12.6%, compared to 10.1% of the S&P 500 index.

Does buying high dividend stocks always work?

Not really. Table 1 below shows that if you have purchased HBGlobal with a dividend yield of 6.9% on 30/5/2012, you would have lost a whopping 86% as on 1st July 2016, while the broad market has gone up by about 10.4% during the same period. AEGB, the former high flier Master Skill Education Group suffered the same fate with 72% loss. Even a seemingly good stock, JCY was not spared with a loss of 54% over the last 4 years, when it was at its high price of RM1.50 and giving 15 sen dividend then.

The caveats on high dividend stock

High dividend investing strategy can very well be a winning strategy if the company has a stable business with consistent and proven cash earnings power that can grow over time. It may not be good for the company if there is inadequate normalized earnings and free cash flows. It is especially so if there is no excess cash in its balance sheet, and instead with significant debts.
This dividend payment is hence unsustainable as the company has to borrow or issues new shares in order to pay dividend. Paying too much dividend also negatively affect growth as less money is spent on capital expenses for the future growth of the company. A company with low return on reinvested capital is also unlikely to sustain high dividend payment.

When embarking on a high dividend investing strategy, it is better if you carry out the following checks:
1. Dividend yields at least the same as the bank fixed interest rate, currently average about 3.5%.
2. Dividend pay-out ratio should be less than a cut-off, say 65-85% so that there is money left and the business can still grow with the reinvestment for potential increase in future dividend.
3. A business model that doesn’t require massive amounts of capital outlays relative to its earnings power.
4. Reasonable expected growth rate in earnings at least matches the overall economy, say >4%, also for the potential growth in dividends in the future.
5. Strong balance sheet for sustainability of dividend payment.
6. High return of equity and capitals > 12% such that the dividend payment is not only sustainable, but grows from internally generated funds.
7. Good free cash flows from where dividend is paid from internally generated funds
8. Shareholder-friendly management dedicated to treating shareholders as owners

My experience in dividend investing strategy

I have used this dividend investing strategy for some stocks since end of last year. While many stocks, good ones included, have dropped in prices for more than 20%, some even up to 30% since the beginning of the year, the portfolio of 5 stocks picked and written by me based on dividend investment strategy, and published in ********** about nine months ago as shown in the link below has gained about 41% this year as on 5th September 2016 as shown in the Appended link and summarized in Table 2 in the Appendix.

Conclusions

Investing in high dividend stocks can be a winning strategy but it is not full proof strategy. However, it is a viable and low risk strategy if you can separate the chaff from the wheat.

Companies seldom cut their dividend, if they can afford to, as they do not want to send a negative signal to investors when their earnings drop a little temporary.

In fact, valuation wise using discount dividend model (DDM) is more reliable for me as there is less uncertainties in estimating future cash flows as shown in the link below.
With steady earnings and cash flows, healthy balance sheet, using DDM to value what a stock is worth brings the art of valuation closer to science, and we can be more confident with the margin of safety.

A watch list of good dividend stocks meeting all the criteria above and have good potential of total gain over long-term will be given to you once you have signed up for the course. There will be another watch list based on another favorite and proven successful investment strategy for you to consider to invest. You will also learn from my detail analysis and comprehensive reports about why and how those stocks are chosen along the course.

[rince]

 

[paperplane3]

A week ago EPF bought a 40% stake into DUKE1 and DUKE2 highway (DUKE Expressway) for a price of RM1.13 billion. That basically value the entire highway at RM2.825 billion (or even more as I have mentioned before, buying a 40% stake is different from buying a 100% stake - one would pay more for a controlling stake). With DUKE Expressway having a long way before the concession is to end i.e. in 2059, this is an eye opener if one is to look at Ekovest for an investment. (Note, I do not think EPF overpaid for the highway as I do not see EPF does bad deals in Private Equity deals like this - through my observation of its deals in PLUS, KFC and several property development projects - in fact, EPF is very good at this kind of deal. Hence, it is not overvaluing DUKE)

 There is no doubt that with the award of another even longer highway (29.8 km) i.e. the now called Setiawangsa-Pantai Expressway (SPE), Ekovest will need to make a cash call for its equity portion. It however did not do that, but instead sold a significant chunk of DUKE Expressway to raise that cash. That seems like a good decision, as it will not want to raise further cash anymore while it gets to work on its new major project i.e. the SPE immediately.

 Let's look at where the value Ekovest still has:

•DUKE Expressway where it still owns 60%. That is still valued at RM1.7 billion if we based our valuation on the recent EPF purchase. That by itself is equivalent to Ekovest market capitalisation today. As for its financial performance, already it is profitable since 2014 and we know that traffic is surely to grow. It has its toll revised from RM2 to RM2.50 from late 2015 for normal cars and with that the revenue has improved further. I definitely see much potential in this highway especially when DUKE2 is to be opened in a few months time. Currently, the performance is excluding DUKE2 which is yet to be ready. When DUKE2 is ready, besides having its own toll, it is designed to feed traffic into DUKE1 as well;
•The construction of SPE which is going to be a major RM5 billion project. Assuming that margin is around 8% (based on its past record), it will translate into profit of about RM400 million over the next 3 years towards completion of the project. Besides that, its construction division has other projects, but obviously the elephant in the room is the SPE;
•The SPE itself which will have a concession of 53.5 years. I am not sure how attractive is this new highway, but it does go through the most busiest of roads. From UTAR in Taman Melati, it passes though the very busy Jalan Jelatik, towards Bandar Malaysia (do not want to discuss about the controversy, but we know that HSR and major development will be there with huge incentives). The road will then lead pass Mid Valley and ends at SPRINT highway. With DUKE Expressway, SPE and SPRINT - together, I will call it MRR 1-1/2 - i.e. in between the old MRR and the very heavy traffic MRR2. RM5 billion seems like a huge amount for a highway, but again it is a long highway (mostly elevated) with a very long concession. SPE feels like DUKE1 and DUKE2 combined and perhaps pass a very much strategic places in KL;
•It has several property projects namely EkoCheras, EkoTitiwangsa, The River of Life project and another one in Danga Bay. These probably are not so exciting as compared to other developers' but still worth some few hundred million valuation especially when the landbank is situated in strategic locations.

If one is to be afraid of its high debt, it is not much to worry as the bulk of the loan is for DUKE Expressway which is already ring-fenced. Do I make one feel more comfortable, if I were to say EPF is buying into the subsidiary which has the bulk of the debt? Other than that, they are manageable. However, obviously debt will increase further when the SPE project starts.




I do not want to go too much into details, but let's look at valuation - its current market cap is equivalent to the valuation of 60% of DUKE Expressway. SPE seems promising as its length is about the same as DUKE Expressway (i.e. DUKE1 and 2 combines) - it seems to be hence 1.67x of Ekovest ownership of DUKE Expressway. Its construction arm is to make good profits in the next few years due to the secured orderbook. Its properties holdings are in essence decent.




At its current price of RM1.93, you are basically paying for an equivalent of its 60% ownership in DUKE Expressway. But, in addition there is the SPE, construction and property divisions. How much you would value those?

[Oly Shyte]

Most investors are risk averse. They want good return but shun risk and try hard to avoid risks most of the time. They want to protect their capitals, and hence many are attracted to the sale pitch of “Capital Protected Funds”, (risky) bond funds, like what Miss Y above likes, which are actually poor investments which cap the upside potential of investors, with not much better downside protection than equity. Think about the structured products of the late 2000, CDS, CMS, CDS2, etc., when investors lost most of their capitals.

Fundamental investing and investing for dividends is a much better alternative and inherently a low risk investing strategy suitable for most people. You can see Mr. X knows it well too.

Dr. Neoh Soon Kean, in his book “Stock Market Investment in Malaysia and Singapore” gave dividend as the only reason that drives the share price as shown in his statements as follow:

“THE VALUE OF A SHARE DEPENDS ON ITS FUTURE DIVIDENDS”
“THE VALUE OF A SHARE DEPENDS ON ITS FUTURE DIVIDENDS”

He said, share is just a form of investment. Except for special situations, the return that they can provide must bear some relationship to the alternative returns that investors can get, for example fixed deposit rate, return from rental in property investments, etc. The dividend yield (DY) investing in a share must bear some resemblance to the returns from alternative investments.

What is the use of earnings, and profit growth?

Most stock market players, including institutional investors, fund managers focus too much on profit, and profit growth as an assessment of how good is a company, and the use of price-earnings ratio (PE) is the most common method in market valuation. Investment bankers and professional analysts also like to use these earnings to cloud your judgment. Unless earnings are higher than the cost of capitals and are converted to cash in the pocket of shareholders, it remains as a castle in the air.
What is the use of these doggy earnings and earnings forecasts?

Why is dividend important

“A stock dividend is something tangible-it is not earnings projection; it is something solid, in hand. A stock dividend is a true return on the investment. Everything else is hope and speculation.” Richard Russell

Dividend is a real thing. You get 40.2 sen per share dividend from investing in SAM. You pocket it, use it for consumptions, or reinvest in the same or other dividend shares and in return, get more dividends.

During the bear market, SAM share may go down to RM5.00, but you would not feel too scare as the dividend yield then is more than 8%. In other words, it can provide a “floor” for share price when bear stampedes, and you won’t get too worried and still be able to sleep well:

When the market is too hot, dividend yield keeps us in close touch with the real world. London Biscuits doesn’t give you any dividend now. You wouldn’t want to chase its share when it went up above RM1.00 with news that they would reduce their huge capital expenses finally, like what others do. You won’t buy XingQuan shares despite they have announced beautiful earnings, increased in earnings, and even good cash flows, and have heaps of cash in their balance sheet much higher than its share price, will you?

Last but not least, dividend yield prevents you from being side-tracked by events which have little or no real benefits to you as a shareholder, such as bonus issues, share splits, free warrants, property injections by major shareholders, merger and acquisition, high growth, and getting of big contracts which keep on losing money like before etc. like these ones:

What would have happened to your investment outcome if you have chased the bonus issues and shares split plus “free warrants” of Asia Media, Bonia, Fimma Holding etc., the numerous bonus issues of EAH, Instacom, etc. when these companies hardly pay any dividend. Speculators, no, they can't be classified as investors, lost not only their pants, their underwear also, chasing the share prices up when those corporate exercises were announced, and their share prices eventually fell sharply..

Why not capital gain?

But why haven’t I talk about capital gain? Isn’t capital gain also important as it is the second part of the total return equation?
Capital gain is of course important. But what logical reason you can give for the share price to go up? I know share price can go up when someone “fries” it. But do you think he does that to enrich you? Very few smart souls benefit from the "frying", and most, more than 90% I suspect, became * again and again, and lost their pants.

The share price will likely to go up because of the growth in dividend. The management must manage the company well so that the company can pay growing dividends. That is the role of management, not all the time thinking about how to jack up share price by carrying out exercises which do not increase shareholder value in the long-term, but merely benefit the insiders, syndicates, manipulators in the short-term.

The dividend of Apollo was 7.4 sen in 2008 when it was trading at about RM2.50. The dividend yield was 3.0%. Its dividend has increased to 30 sen now and at RM5.95 at the close today on 6th September 2016, an even more attractive DY of 5.0% when the share price has risen by more than 100% in 7 years.

Apollo has not given any bonus issues, share split or “free” warrants, the number of shares remains at 80m, but they are able to pay 3.4 times dividends from 7.4 sen seven years ago to 30 sen now, without having to issue a single new share, hence diluting its EPS, nor borrow a single sen from the bank?

What does the research show?

Robert Shiller examined the predictability of annual S&P composite returns in 1986 and found that dividend yields explained a significant 16% of the variation of returns in the 1946-1983 period.

Fama &French (1988) reported that dividend yields explain 25% of the 2 to 4-year returns. In economics, unlike science, a R-square of 25% is a significant number.

In 1978, Krisna Ramasawamy and Robert Litzenberger established a significant correlation between dividend yield and subsequent stock returns.

More recently, James O’Shaughnessy has shown that in the period 1951 through 1994, the 50 highest-dividend-yielding large capitalized stocks had a return that was 1.7% higher than the market.

Jeremy Siegel, in his book “Stocks for the Long Run”, has further confirmed the out-performance of high dividend stocks from his research using data from 1957 to 2012 with striking results. The highest dividend stocks returned a CAGR of 12.6%, compared to 10.1% of the S&P 500 index.

Does buying high dividend stocks always work?

Not really. Table 1 below shows that if you have purchased HBGlobal with a dividend yield of 6.9% on 30/5/2012, you would have lost a whopping 86% as on 1st July 2016, while the broad market has gone up by about 10.4% during the same period. AEGB, the former high flier Master Skill Education Group suffered the same fate with 72% loss. Even a seemingly good stock, JCY was not spared with a loss of 54% over the last 4 years, when it was at its high price of RM1.50 and giving 15 sen dividend then.

The caveats on high dividend stock

High dividend investing strategy can very well be a winning strategy if the company has a stable business with consistent and proven cash earnings power that can grow over time. It may not be good for the company if there is inadequate normalized earnings and free cash flows. It is especially so if there is no excess cash in its balance sheet, and instead with significant debts.
This dividend payment is hence unsustainable as the company has to borrow or issues new shares in order to pay dividend. Paying too much dividend also negatively affect growth as less money is spent on capital expenses for the future growth of the company. A company with low return on reinvested capital is also unlikely to sustain high dividend payment.

When embarking on a high dividend investing strategy, it is better if you carry out the following checks:
1. Dividend yields at least the same as the bank fixed interest rate, currently average about 3.5%.
2. Dividend pay-out ratio should be less than a cut-off, say 65-85% so that there is money left and the business can still grow with the reinvestment for potential increase in future dividend.
3. A business model that doesn’t require massive amounts of capital outlays relative to its earnings power.
4. Reasonable expected growth rate in earnings at least matches the overall economy, say >4%, also for the potential growth in dividends in the future.
5. Strong balance sheet for sustainability of dividend payment.
6. High return of equity and capitals > 12% such that the dividend payment is not only sustainable, but grows from internally generated funds.
7. Good free cash flows from where dividend is paid from internally generated funds
8. Shareholder-friendly management dedicated to treating shareholders as owners

My experience in dividend investing strategy

I have used this dividend investing strategy for some stocks since end of last year. While many stocks, good ones included, have dropped in prices for more than 20%, some even up to 30% since the beginning of the year, the portfolio of 5 stocks picked and written by me based on dividend investment strategy, and published in ********** about nine months ago as shown in the link below has gained about 41% this year as on 5th September 2016 as shown in the Appended link and summarized in Table 2 in the Appendix.

Conclusions

Investing in high dividend stocks can be a winning strategy but it is not full proof strategy. However, it is a viable and low risk strategy if you can separate the chaff from the wheat.

Companies seldom cut their dividend, if they can afford to, as they do not want to send a negative signal to investors when their earnings drop a little temporary.

In fact, valuation wise using discount dividend model (DDM) is more reliable for me as there is less uncertainties in estimating future cash flows as shown in the link below.
With steady earnings and cash flows, healthy balance sheet, using DDM to value what a stock is worth brings the art of valuation closer to science, and we can be more confident with the margin of safety.

A watch list of good dividend stocks meeting all the criteria above and have good potential of total gain over long-term will be given to you once you have signed up for the course. There will be another watch list based on another favorite and proven successful investment strategy for you to consider to invest. You will also learn from my detail analysis and comprehensive reports about why and how those stocks are chosen along the course.

Ceh now only teach to other newbies about invest in dividen stocks. Oly teach u never listen also! 

[stockraider]

Posted by MG9231 > Sep 28, 2016 09:54 PM | Report Abuse

By right why not treating investment lesson as an additional subject which is not cover in school or university or part time lesson that may be useful in future, who knows?

I remember in Dr. Neoh Soon Kean's book, Stock Market Investment in Malaysia and Singapore. There was a case where a Doctor's son was forced by his Doctor father to pursue and complete his medical course , but the son was not actually keen with his medical study. However the son tried to pick up extra courses in his University, He saw a lecturer who drove a beautiful Porsche in his campus, later , he found out that lecturer was teaching investment course, he told himself that the lecturer must be good in his personal investment and be able to drive nice sport car. In oversea university, the student is allowed to participate other courses on his personal capacity without sitting examine. He followed that lecturer's investment course and picked up his investment knowledge.

when he was back to Malaysia after practised a few years and after accumulated some capital, he started to invest in Malaysia market and make many time more than his medical practice.

I think it is no harm for others to have extra skill as long as he has spare time.

It reminds me Hong Kong tycoon Lee Ka Sing use to advise young people " everyone has equal 24 hours per day, during the office hours, you must contribute your best to your company, you must also pursue 2nd career after office hours by read as much as possible or do what you like best because who knows, that may turn out to be your lifeline either you got retrenched or meeting misfortune event."

I believe those people who follow his advice will live better and comfortable in life .

Well said by Great Sifu MG9231 the avid disciple of

GRAND MASTER CHAMPION SIFU DR NEOH SOON KEAN.

In Dr. Neoh's Valuable "STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT" BOOK

he mentioned these in his preface

"Dedicated to the memory of Benjamin Graham" - the Father of Value Investing.

Later Dr Neoh himself became The Benjamin Graham of Malaysia.

And now MG9231 is The Benjamin Graham of ~ Investors' Forum.

So You Better Stay here & Teach all Newbies

Maybe someday an article called

"THE SUPER INVESTORS OF ~ INVESTORS' FORUM" might be written!

While many are struggling to make 5 to 6 figures a year buying and selling; selling and buying stocks MG9231 is making 6 to 7 figures a year just by receiving dividends alone.

6 to 7 FIGURES A YEAR IN DIVIDENDS ALONE?

That's MG9231!! THE CHAMPION OF CHAMPIONS!!!

[stockraider]

Bright - Brighter Go

Author: ~   |   Publish date: Fri, 30 Sep 2016, 01:14 AM   |  >> Read article in Blog website

Bright Packaging Industry Berhad (Bright - 9938) had once shot into the lime light at the hostile change of ownership which saw the emergence of Dato Ricky Wong through Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd as a substantial shareholder for Bright with 22.7% stake on October 2013. After the ruckus in Bright, Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd again offer to take over TechFast in 2014 at 26 cents.

Subsequently, Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd continue to increase stake in Bright, which is now at the critical border of MGO, which is 33%.

According to the latest filling on the shareholding of Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd, it is at the borderline level of 32.936%. Which means, Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd just need to purchase from the open market a mere 105,128 units of share in order to trigger the MGO.

What is actually so interesting in Bright that makes Dato Ricky Wong edging nearer and nearer towards a MGO of this listed vehicle?

While an easy answer will be "Value", but what kind of values are the retailer seeing, and what kind of hidden values that the retailer could had missed ?

For most of the mass retailer in the market, the fastest way is to access is cash level, and determine the net cash position. For this case, Bright is holding on a RM 35.616 million of net cash. For a share base of 164.264 million, that is equivalent to 21.68 cents per share.

But for an experienced investor, there are more to that on just the net cash value. These value are easily missed out by retailers that are not familiar with corporate finance, hence hidden value.

Firstly, the company have a share premium of RM 15.584 million. While this amount cannot be access directly by means of dividend, but it can give Bright a potential "bonus issue" of 1 bonus share to 6 existing mother share, enlarging the share base by 27,377,333 share based on par value of RM 0.50, which can utilize RM 13.688 million. (Bonus of  1 to 6 is based on Par value of RM 0.50)

Secondly, the share is carrying a par value of RM 0.50 per share. It is possible for the company to do a par value reduction and capital repayment back to shareholder if agreed by majority of the shareholder. Take an example for a reduction towards par value of RM 0.10, that will unlock 40 cents of shareholder equity that can be repay back to the shareholder.

To take all this into account, if Bright is to do a capital reduction and repayment of 40 cents, and uses RM 30 million to pay special dividend, that would worth a total cash of RM 0.58 per share (RM 0.40 from capital repayment and RM 0.18 from dividend).

Subsequently with the lower par value of RM 0.10, then the company can undertake a bonus issue of 2 bonus share for 3 ordinary share (instead of 1 to 6 with RM 0.50 par value) which will make it more enticing for further speculation and boost liquidity of the share.

At the current price of RM 0.36, that really looks like a crazy offer, where you are paying RM 0.36 with potential of getting RM 0.58 in capital repayment and dividend, and also a chance for a bonus issue exercise. The NTA of Bright is RM 0.73 per share.

To put this into technical mean, Bright had broken 2 resistant line, one which is horizontal resistant of RM 0.34, and a long term down trend resistant line as well. It is a good indicator to see that the counter is gaining positive uptrend momentum, for this case, we will see the potential corporate exercise of MGO is the best fuel to boost the stock price higher.

To take this further, the pioneer vehicle of Dato Ricky Wong, which is Asia Media (Amedia), had went through some corporate exercise and is banging it's way upwards in the market again, sending a signal to the market that Dato Ricky Wong is "in the office and at work now".

While Bright had contracted with Zao Philip Morris Izhora from Russia for a USD 15 million aluminium foil supply, the business had saw challenging environment such as fluctuation of currency and commodity prices. With the potential cash pile in Bright and a ambitious Dato Ricky Wong, who knows if Bright will be a vehicle for some new business venture for him again after Amedia?

For this reason, the chances are bright for Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd to head for a MGO in the coming days. In fact, familiar sources are looking to see the MGO putting a potential price range of RM 0.50 to RM 0.60. If the offer is RM 0.60, why not ?

Bone's TP : RM 0.60

[CurryLee]

 

[Oly Shyte]

Bright - Brighter Go

Author: ~   |   Publish date: Fri, 30 Sep 2016, 01:14 AM   |  >> Read article in Blog website

Bright Packaging Industry Berhad (Bright - 9938) had once shot into the lime light at the hostile change of ownership which saw the emergence of Dato Ricky Wong through Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd as a substantial shareholder for Bright with 22.7% stake on October 2013. After the ruckus in Bright, Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd again offer to take over TechFast in 2014 at 26 cents.

Subsequently, Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd continue to increase stake in Bright, which is now at the critical border of MGO, which is 33%.

According to the latest filling on the shareholding of Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd, it is at the borderline level of 32.936%. Which means, Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd just need to purchase from the open market a mere 105,128 units of share in order to trigger the MGO.

What is actually so interesting in Bright that makes Dato Ricky Wong edging nearer and nearer towards a MGO of this listed vehicle?

While an easy answer will be "Value", but what kind of values are the retailer seeing, and what kind of hidden values that the retailer could had missed ?

For most of the mass retailer in the market, the fastest way is to access is cash level, and determine the net cash position. For this case, Bright is holding on a RM 35.616 million of net cash. For a share base of 164.264 million, that is equivalent to 21.68 cents per share.

But for an experienced investor, there are more to that on just the net cash value. These value are easily missed out by retailers that are not familiar with corporate finance, hence hidden value.

Firstly, the company have a share premium of RM 15.584 million. While this amount cannot be access directly by means of dividend, but it can give Bright a potential "bonus issue" of 1 bonus share to 6 existing mother share, enlarging the share base by 27,377,333 share based on par value of RM 0.50, which can utilize RM 13.688 million. (Bonus of  1 to 6 is based on Par value of RM 0.50)

Secondly, the share is carrying a par value of RM 0.50 per share. It is possible for the company to do a par value reduction and capital repayment back to shareholder if agreed by majority of the shareholder. Take an example for a reduction towards par value of RM 0.10, that will unlock 40 cents of shareholder equity that can be repay back to the shareholder.

To take all this into account, if Bright is to do a capital reduction and repayment of 40 cents, and uses RM 30 million to pay special dividend, that would worth a total cash of RM 0.58 per share (RM 0.40 from capital repayment and RM 0.18 from dividend).

Subsequently with the lower par value of RM 0.10, then the company can undertake a bonus issue of 2 bonus share for 3 ordinary share (instead of 1 to 6 with RM 0.50 par value) which will make it more enticing for further speculation and boost liquidity of the share.

At the current price of RM 0.36, that really looks like a crazy offer, where you are paying RM 0.36 with potential of getting RM 0.58 in capital repayment and dividend, and also a chance for a bonus issue exercise. The NTA of Bright is RM 0.73 per share.

To put this into technical mean, Bright had broken 2 resistant line, one which is horizontal resistant of RM 0.34, and a long term down trend resistant line as well. It is a good indicator to see that the counter is gaining positive uptrend momentum, for this case, we will see the potential corporate exercise of MGO is the best fuel to boost the stock price higher.

To take this further, the pioneer vehicle of Dato Ricky Wong, which is Asia Media (Amedia), had went through some corporate exercise and is banging it's way upwards in the market again, sending a signal to the market that Dato Ricky Wong is "in the office and at work now".

While Bright had contracted with Zao Philip Morris Izhora from Russia for a USD 15 million aluminium foil supply, the business had saw challenging environment such as fluctuation of currency and commodity prices. With the potential cash pile in Bright and a ambitious Dato Ricky Wong, who knows if Bright will be a vehicle for some new business venture for him again after Amedia?

For this reason, the chances are bright for Wong SK Holdings Sdn Bhd to head for a MGO in the coming days. In fact, familiar sources are looking to see the MGO putting a potential price range of RM 0.50 to RM 0.60. If the offer is RM 0.60, why not ?

Bone's TP : RM 0.60

~ is my friend okay. Don't kacau him!

[stockraider]

“I Always Knew I Was Going to be Rich” kcchongnz

Author: kcchongnz   |  Publish date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016, 10:13 PM 

First a clarification. The saying above, “I Always Knew I was Going to be Rich” is from Warren Buffett, not me. I did not say I am rich.

How lucky the children above are! I wish my parents had done that for me when I was at that age. Then I am pretty sure I could say what Warren had said. Yes, I really believe so. It is not because one will automatically become very rich in a year, 10 years or even 20 years, following some investing methods, any method for that matter. But, imagine with scores of years for the children to build up their long term wealth, with the eighth wonder of the world, the power of compounding, and a proven and plausible way of investing with higher probability of success, the sky is the limit.

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” Albert Einstein

Power of compounding

Professor Jeremy Siegel, in his article, “Stocks for the long run”, made a study of the long-term returns of stocks at various periods from 1871 to 2012 in the United States. For a 141-year period from 1871-2012 in the USA, stocks’ total real annual return including dividend yield and after adjusting for inflation of 3% is 6.6%, or a gross return of 9.6%.  The return in most of the developed and developing countries in the world do not differ much, including that of KLSE.

A young person starting work at the age of 23 who saves and invests $1000 a month, slowly increasing according to the increase of salary of 4%, in the stock market for a long term horizon yielding 9.6% a year will accumulate a total of $5.5m by the time he retires at the age of 60.

What if he can compound it at a higher rate of return? How to get a higher return with little risk?

The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville

In a paper titled “The Super Investors of Graham and Doddsville”, Warren Buffet showed the track records of each of nine disciples of Benjamin Graham showing that they all generated annual compounded returns of between 18% and 29% over track records lasting between 13 to 28 years investing in the equity markets over a long period of time, out-performing the broad market by wide margins. Let’s have a look at their profit history as shown in Table 1 below.

All the above investors came from just one school of thought in investing, the principles and methodologies of fundamental value investing (FVI). Their performances were well documented.

Take for example of the investing experience of Walter Schloss who had made a CAR of 21.3% over a 28 years investing period. The young person above who can save and invest following Schloss’s simple investing methodology for 28 years would have accumulated a whopping sum of $71m by the time he reaches 60 years old!

More recently, more super investors such as Joel Greenblatt, Seth Klarmen, Howard Marks, Mohnish Pabrai, Peter Lynch and many other fundamental value investing fund managers have all generated high return of over 20% CAR over an extended period of time, making billions for themselves and their investors.

What about long-term investing in Bursa? Why are there so many investors, some seemingly very experienced investors say it is not advisable to invest in individual stocks listed in Bursa for more than three years? Do they have statistical significant results to prove that?

I really don’t know about this too as there is no academic research carried out on this, unlike in the US and other more developed markets. What I can do is to do a simplistic back testing on some stocks listed in Bursa. I would use those stocks I have had in the two established portfolios of mine in ********** about three years ago, and back test them for a longer period of 10 years, and see if holding them for 10 years can provide a good compounded return.

Ten-year compounded return of some stocks in Bursa

Table 2 in the Appendix shows the returns of the individual stocks in the combined portfolio of 19 stocks invested from 1st March 2006 to 29th February 2016. The 10-year period of study is reasonable representative as it has included a complete cycle of boom and bust in 2009.

A few stocks have shorter listing history and the actual shorter periods of listing are used. Some, for example Jobstreet, has no complete records and partial and shorter records were used. The share price data were obtained from the adjusted prices given by Yahoo Finance. It is assumed that a total of RM100000 was invested in equal amount for each of the 19 stocks in the portfolio.

In this 10-year period, KLCI has increased by 80%, or a compounded growth rate, CAR, of 6%, an underperformance compared to the historical long-term return of about CAR of 10%.

However, the portfolio of the 19 stocks has returned 470%, or a CAR of 24.4% over the 10-year period. Seventeen out of the nineteen stocks made positive returns, ranging from a low of 49% for Plenitude to a high of 1843% for SKP Resources. Four of them are 10-baggers; SKP Resources (+1843%), Datasonic (+1675%), Pintaras Jaya (+1424%), and CBIP (+1005%). The CAR of these 10-baggers range from 27.2% to 34.5% for those stocks which have more than 10 years’ records.

 “value investing is either.... You either get it or you don't.” Seth Karmen

Table 2: 10 years return of some stocks in Bursa from 1st March 2006 to 29th February 2016

After 10 Years All The Value of PTaras has finally emerged & MG 9231 made his Millions (many millions)

Coming back to the Question Now:

Why Insiders/Directors are exercising their ESOS at 50 cents? The only answer I can think of are 2

1) With 3.25 Millions ESOS offered you can Whack A Whole Lot of It Because you don't find many sellers below 50 cents. On some days only a miserable 30 lots of BPuri Shares were traded. And if they really Whack BPuri shares from the open market prices will definitely spike up.

Except for one Director who is nibbling and nibbling from the Open Market at around 40 cts, I don't know whether other Diectors or Insiders are buying through proxy. This is yet unknown. Maybe we will know it in the far future.

6) PRIVATE PLACEMENT ALL TAKEN UP AT AROUND 50 CENTS, TOO. AT A PREMIUM & NOT A DISCOUNT! AMAZING!

Like Masteel, BPuri has taken the less costly was to raise Capital by private placement. This is much cheaper than borrowing funds from the banks.

While Masteel placed out its shares at a discount BPuri placed out its shares at a premium. Amazing. People are willing to pay more for BPuri Private Placement Shares at 50 cts rather than buying them from the open market at 39 cents?

See

Announcement
Subject NEW ISSUE OF SECURITIES (CHAPTER 6 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS)
 FUND RAISING
Description BINA PURI HOLDINGS BHD ("BINA PURI" OR THE "COMPANY")

PRIVATE PLACEMENT

We refer to the announcements made on 12 June 2015, 15 June 2015, 30 June 2015, 28 October 2015, 3 November 2015, 11 November 2015, 16 November 2015, 14 December 2015, 16 December 2015, 28 January 2016 and 2 February 2016 in relation to the Private Placement (“Announcements”). Unless otherwise defined, the definitions set out in the Announcements shall apply herein.

On behalf of Bina Puri, TA Securities wishes to announce that the Board has on 12 May 2016 (“Price-fixing Date”) fixed the issue price for the fourth tranche of the placement of 5,684,800 Placement Shares at RM0.50 per Placement Share (“Issue Price”).

The Issue Price represents the par value of Bina Puri Shares and is at a premium of approximately RM0.1011 or 25.34% to the five (5)-day volume weighted average market price of the Bina Puri Shares up to and including 11 May 2016, being the last market day immediately preceding the Price-fixing Date of RM0.3989 per Bina Puri Share.

This announcement is dated 12 May 2016.

See Further:

AnnouncementSubjectNEW ISSUE OF SECURITIES (CHAPTER 6 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS)
 FUND RAISINGDescription
BINA PURI HOLDINGS BHD ("BINA PURI" OR THE "COMPANY")

PRIVATE PLACEMENT

We refer to the announcements made on 12 June 2015, 15 June 2015, 30 June 2015, 28 October 2015, 3 November 2015, 11 November 2015, 16 November 2015, 14 December 2015, 16 December 2015, 28 January 2016, 2 February 2016, 12 May 2016 and 20 May 2016 in relation to the Private Placement (“Announcements”). Unless otherwise defined, the definitions set out in the Announcements shall apply herein.

On behalf of Bina Puri, TA Securities wishes to announce that the Private Placement is deemed completed on 29 June 2016 pursuant to the deadline for the implementation of the Private Placement under the extension of time granted by Bursa Securities until 29 June 2016 vide its approval letter dated 15 December 2015 to complete the Private Placement.

A total of 21,684,800 Placement Shares were placed out pursuant to the Private Placement:

Tranche
No. of Placement Shares
Issue price per Placement Share (RM)
 
Listing Date
1st 10,000,000 0.500 4 November 2015
2nd 3,000,000 0.500 17 November 2015
3rd 3,000,000 0.500 3 February 2016
4th 5,684,800 0.500 23 May 2016
Total 21,684,800     

This announcement is dated 29 June 2016.

Again THE BIG QUESTION IS - WHY INTERESTED INVESTORS ARE BUYING PRIVATE PLACEMENT SHARES AT 50 CTS WHEN THEY CAN BUY THEM CHEAPER BELOW 40 CTS FROM THE OPEN MARKET.

I think the same answer already given.
There are few shares traded for BPuri on any given day. So 21.6 Million BPuri Shares (SO UNDERVALUE) looks very attractive for SUCH A BIG VOLUME BUYER.

Try buying 21 million BPuri Shares from open market?
Double Limit Up possible?

7) NOW I HAVE PRESENTED THE FACTS AND FIGURES ABOUT BINA PURI.
I LEAVE ALL FELLOW ~ FORUM MEMBERS TO MAKE YOUR OWN JUDGEMENT & CONCLUSION.

What are Insiders Planning Yet Ahead In Time?

1) Will They Suddenly Bring Out "Hidden" Earnings Like What GuanChong Did & Cause Prices to Spike? After all they have lots of revenue with little profits to show. Will all the hidden profits come to light one day?

2) Will there be capital exercise like MFCB? Hiaptek? TN Logis? Free Bonus Issue with Free Warrants plus Rights?
Last time Calvin Tan Research hinted that MFCB is riped for Capital Exercise. It prediction turned out correct!

See
calvintaneng This MFCB Is Actually Ripe For Corporate Exercise Like Pintaras, TN Logistics or Kimlun

 1) Issue Bonus Issue
 2) Share Split For Cheaper Entry To Attract Retail Players
 3) Free Warrants To Sweeten The Deal
 And A Special Dividend would really Wake Up Mr. Market!

 MFCB HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR IT.
17/07/2014 18:53
On April 12th 2016 just 18 months  later Calvin Tan Research was "Chun Chun"
MFCB Came out with Rights Issue With FREE ATTACHED WARRANTS

[stockraider]

BINA PURI - THE BEST DEFENSIVE BUY IN BURSA FOR A MULTIYEAR UPSIDE POTENTIAL (Calvin Tan)
Author: calvintaneng   |   Publish date: Fri, 30 Sep 2016, 12:05 AM

Hello Men/Women, Boys/Girls & All Fellow Investors in ~ Forum,

If good stocks are not recommended bad stocks will be. The danger of buying land mine stocks like Patimas, Transmile, Megan Media, Saag, Maemode & others are very real and dangerous to our stock performance. Same for those trapped in hot air balloon stocks like ifca, thheavy, sumatech (sudatrap), sersol, xinquan,  pdz & vsolar with no way out AFTER sydicates have PUMPED & DUMPED them to all unsuspecting naive newbies,  gamblers & punters of the day.

Benjamin Graham advocates the Buying of Stocks with High MARGIN OF SAFETY.

Now what is the Margin of Safety?

For cars we install  ABS Brake & airbags. For military planes we have parachutes, and for ships & ferry with have life jackets. What for? To prevent the losses of precious lives and limbs, of course!

So is our investments!! We need to invest in Stocks or Companies that have MARGIN OF SAFETY. Why is it so?

To prevent losses and bankruptcies of Companies exposed to the vicissitudes of life, the uncertainty of the market - to face financial storms & crisis that occur from time to time. How many businesses & business men were wiped off during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997/8? How many more suffered from the Lehman Brothers' Debacle in 2007/8? Lehman Brothers with over 100 years history gone bankrupt! So is Bear Sterns, Washington Mutual & Merill Lynch which was rescued by Bank of America.

What, then, constitute The Margin of Safety?

Benjamin Graham wants a share selling at least 30% discount from NTA (Net Tangible Asset). Like making a Bridge to withstand a 10  ton lorry for the requirement at only 5 tons. Suppose you build a bridge with specification for only 5 ton lorries to pass. But someone foolishly drives an 8 ton lorry across. The Bridge will collapse! So by building a Bridge with ability to stand the weight of up to a 10 ton lorry - THERE IS A BUILT IN MARGIN OF SAFETY - IN CASE SOME ONE MAKES A MISTAKE & ERRED!!

This is summarized by Ben Graham's Famous Disciple - Warren Buffet, who made these 2 Rules of Investments.

1) Never to Lose Money

2) Rule No. 2 is to remember Rule No. 1 - Never to lose money.

Calvin Tan Research has identified these 7 "MARGIN OF SAFETY" Pointers in Bina Puri

They are:

1) Selling at Huge 56% Discount to NTA

At 41 cts closing price today with High NTA of 93 cents - Bina Puri qualifies as a Net Net Stock for Ben Graham & Walter Schloss.

This 56% Discount To NTA provides a Huge Margin of Safety.
What are the NTA (Net Tangible Asset) of BPuri? Just take a look at one example:
Please refer to 2015 Buri Puri Annual Report - scroll down to Properties owned by the Company

3 level shopping Mall Shopping Mall. Main Place Mall Lot 49113, SUBANG JAYA
Bought in 20 Mar 14
Freehold – 645,834 sq ft
Net Book Value Rm 205,000,000

BPuri has other valuable Lands & Assets just like this which could be sold for Cash. These Assets also appreciate on its own over the years. See Crescendo results today. Crescendo has revalued their assets & booked them as profit. Last time I bought OKA at 35 cts. Oka gives a yearly dividend from its earnings without fail.  Oka was only 35 cts (dirt cheap) with NTA over Rm1.20. And in lean years I thought I won't be getting any dividend for that year. But to my big surprise OKA Bosses revalued OKA assets, booked them as profits - then gave me the usual dividend!!

2)  BINA PURI GIVES A DIVIDEND BETTER THAN BANK FD RATE:
Like OKA (Oka no longer cheap now - already up 700% after bonus issue!) Bina Puri is also giving a yearly dividend without fail
Extracted from STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE By DYNAQUEST

Dividends for BPuri
Year...........Dividend
2006 .........2.9 sen
2007..........3.7 sen
2008..........4.5 sen
2009..........3.0 sen
2010...........3.0 sen
2011...........3.0 sen
2012...........1.5 sen
2013............1.5 sen
2014............1.5 sen
2015...........2.0 sen
2016............ ??  Only 3 more months left to declare dividend for this year.

3) GOVT LINKED PROJECTS ASSURE SAFETY OF PAYMENTS

These are difficult times. Swiber being hit by bad debts, flounder in Singapore. Hanjing Shipping of South Korea in trouble due to shipping downturn. Even TekSeng just retrenched staff in Penang due to surplus merchandise in a saturated market with dwindling sales.

BPURI has secured payments from Projects Awarded by Malaysian Govts & Malaysian Companies.
See (Refer to Annual Report Under Chairman Statement)

BUSINESS OVERVIEW ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS
As in previous years, the Group’s earnings are derived from its businesses in construction, property development, quarry and ready mix concrete and power generation. 2015 was a strong year for the Malaysian construction industry; it registered a 11.2% growth. Many infrastructural projects were announced in Budget 2016 and this will ensure a constant stream of revenue for the construction sector. The Construction Division has remained the main core business of Bina Puri Group.

The Group managed to secure new projects worth RM1.2 billion in 2015. The new projects include additional work and interior design work for Sabah State Administration Building, Bunus Regional Sewage Treatment Plant, Movenpick Spa Resort Kuala Terengganu, Medini Twin Tower at Iskandar Malaysia in Johor, Island Resort Pulau Poh Lake Kenyir and Civil Work at RAPID Steam Cracker Complex in Pengerang Johor.

BPuri also secured the Malaysian Embassy Building Job in Russia from the Malaysian Govt.
And lately these were the Project Awards

a) Rm80 Millions for 440 Units of Flats in Sabah

The Board is pleased to announce that Bina Puri Sdn. Bhd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Bina Puri Holdings Bhd. had accepted the award for the role of project management consultant for the project known as “Mereka Bentuk, Membina dan Menyiapkan 440 unit rumah pangsa 5 tingkat (walkup flats) serta kerja-kerja berkaitan dengannya untuk Program Perumahan Rakyat (PPR) di Pitas, Sabah from Arus Sutera Sdn. Bhd. at contract sum of RM80 million. The works mentioned above shall be completed within 42 months.

The said project is expected to contribute positively to the net assets and earnings of Bina Puri Group for the financial year ending 31 December 2016.

b) Portion of Rm1.35 Billions  Pan Borneo Highway Project Award from Malaysian Government.

LETTER OF AWARD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND UPGRADING OF THE PROPOSED PAN BORNEO HIGHWAY IN THE STATE OF SARAWAK, MALAYSIA - PHASE 1: WPC06 - SG. AWIK BRIDGE TO BINTANGOR JUNCTION

The Board of Directors of Bina Puri Holdings Bhd. (“BPHB”) is pleased to announce that PPES Works (Sarawak) Sdn. Bhd. and Bina Puri Sdn. Bhd. joint venture (“PPESW-BPSB JV”) has, on 25 July 2016, received and accepted a Letter of Award from Lebuhraya Borneo Utara Sdn Bhd for the Proposed Development and Upgrading of Pan Borneo Highway in the State of Sarawak, Malaysia, (Phase 1: WPC06 - Sg. Awik Bridge to Bintangor Junction) for a contract sum of RM1,358,880,000.00 only (“the Contract”). Bina Puri Sdn. Bhd. (“BPSB”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of BPHB.

The Contract is for duration of forty seven (47) months from the date of the Letter of Award. PPESW–BPSB JV is a 70 (PPESW):30 (BPSB) joint venture and a joint venture company will be incorporated in due course to undertake the Contract as a condition imposed in the tender for the Contract.

With this award, the total projects secured by the Group in 2016 is RM480.66 million. We are confident of more successful awards before year end.

c) Rm73 Millions For RAPID Project from PETRONAS

EXECUTION OF PIPE SLEEPER AND UNDERGROUND SERVICES PACKAGE FOR PACKAGE-22 RAPID PROJECT

The Board is pleased to announce that Bina Puri Sdn. Bhd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Bina Puri Holdings Bhd. had accepted the Letter of Award from Punj Lloyd Sdn. Bhd. on 9 June 2016 for the execution of pipe sleeper and underground services for Package-22 RAPID project at contract sum of RM73 million. The works mentioned above shall be completed within 18 months.

With the latest award mentioned above, the Group’s unbuilt book order stands at RM1.62 billion as at to date.
The said project is expected to contribute positively to the net assets and earnings of Bina Puri Group for the financial year ending 31 December 2016 from the contract income in respect of progress payment received

d) Rm230 Millions Award for Prima Homes in Johor

THE CONSTRUCTION OF 994 UNITS OF PR1MA HOMES COMPRISING OF APARTMENTS AND 20 UNITS OF SHOPS SITUATED ON 18.23 ACRES OF FREEHOLD LAND HELD UNDER GRN 293554; LOT NO. 96790, MUKIM PLENTONG, JOHOR BAHRU, JOHOR
The Board is pleased to announce that Bina Puri Holdings Bhd. (“BPHB”) had received the Letter of Intent from PR1MA Corporation Malaysia (PR1MA) for the construction of 994 units of PR1MA Homes comprising of apartments and 20 units of shops to be undertaken by BPHB on 18.23 acres of freehold land held under Grn 293554; Lot no. 96790, Mukim Plentong, Johor Bahru at a price to be mutually agreed between PR1MA and BPHB. The estimated contract sum is RM230 million.

The said project is expected to contribute positively to the net assets and earnings of Bina Puri Group for the financial year ending 31 December 2016.
And and check out yourselves Project After Project Award to BPuri!

Listen to the words of:
Warren Buffet,

"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows".

4) SHARE PRICE OF BPURI NOW AT MULTI YEAR LOW - INSIDERS & DIRECTORS ARE BUYING AND BUYING

Below are the Year Low & Year High Prices of BPuri
2006................0.60............0.9 0
2007................0.64............1.4 1
2008................0.65............1.1 5
2009................0.70............0.9 6
2010................0.74............1.5 4
2011.................0.85............1. 65
2012.................0.80............1. 05
2013.................0.57............0. 88
2014.................0.50.............0 .80
2015.................0.33.............. 0.65
2016.................0.37.............. 0.47

At the current price of 41 cents today Calvin Tan Research thinks BPuri is GROSSLY UNDERVALUE!!
Insiders & Directors Are Buying & Buying Up BPuri Very Very Stealtily & Quietly

See

23/08/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Purchase from open market.
19/07/2016 TAN SRI DATUK TAN SRI DATUK TEE HOCK SENG, JP ESOS
19/07/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON ESOS
13/07/2016 DR TAN CHENG KIAT ESOS
07/06/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
03/06/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
31/05/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
26/05/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
20/05/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
12/05/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
04/05/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
12/04/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
24/03/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
09/03/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
04/03/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
03/03/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
17/02/2016 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquired shares from open market
07/12/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquire shares from open market
12/11/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Purchase of shares from open market
29/10/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Disposal of shares
14/09/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Purchase from open market
25/08/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Purchase from open market
19/08/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Purchase from open market
11/08/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Purchase from open market
22/07/2015 MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Purchase from open market
27/05/2015 MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON ESOS
27/05/2015 TAN SRI DATUK TEE HOCK SENG, JP ESOS
13/04/2015 MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON Acquisition via off market
 

Last time Insiders Bought Tomypak at 40 cts very quietly. One day Tomypak Jumped 1,000% & split!
Same goes for TN Logis. I Saw Insiders Buying TN Logis at Rm1.50 to Rm1.70. So I followed them. As it turned out TN Logis gave Bonus & warrant issue later & price spiked to Rm7.00 & split (TN Logis up 500%)

Later Kimhin followed the same pattern - Insiders & Directors were buying and buying up Kimhin at Rm1.30 before Price Crossed Rm2.00

When Jaks was 40 cents I saw Jaks received millions and millions of Job Award. So I bought it at 39.5 cts.
I saw Directors & Insiders buying Jaks later & I highlighted it

 Posted by calvintaneng > Dec 16, 2014 03:00 PM | Report Abuse X

Whoa!
 Top boss bought at 44 cents and above, millions of them. Anything below 40 cents is a bargain!
 So don't wait or else Jaks jump Jump JUMP Up And Away!

And Jaks later JUMPED OVER RM1.20 (UP 200%!!)

5) ESOS AT 50 CENTS to 54 CENTS ALL TAKEN UP BY INSIDERS AND DIRECTORS
Not only Insiders are buying & buying BPuri shares from the open market. They even pay much higher price quietly through ESOS.

The Amazing Discovery is: Directors willing to exercise ESOS at 50 cents when they can get it cheaper from open market at only 36 cents

See CAREFULLY
OFFER OF OPTIONS UNDER THE EXECUTIVES' SHARE OPTION SCHEME (ESOS)
We refer to the ESOS of Bina Puri Holdings Bhd. (BPHB) which was established on 7 June 2011 and extended for another 5 years from 7 June 2016 to 6 June 2021 in accordance with the ESOS By-Laws .

Pursuant ot paragraph 9.19(51) of the Main Market Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, BPHB would like to announce the grant of options under the ESOS as stated below:-

(a) Date of offer 30 June 2016
(b) Exercise price of options offered RM0.50
(c) Number of options offered 3,250,000
(d) Market price of BPHB shares on the date of the offer RM0.3681
(e) Number of options offered to each director   
  (i)  Tan Sri Datuk Tee Hock Seng, JP 1,690,000
  (ii)  Matthew Tee Kai Woon 1,560,000
(f) Vesting period of the options offered Immediate

 Question is?

Why Are Directors Paying Much Higher Prices for BPuri Shares at 50 cents through ESOS rather than buying them from Bursa at only 36 cents? A VERY BIG QUESTION MARK & YOU MUST SEE BEYOND THE OBVIOUS!!!

Last time my Johor Sifu (MG9231) Alerted me to Buy Pintaras Jaya at Rm1.40. He told me at Rm1.40 we are buying cheaper than Company ESOS at Rm1.90. And he observed that the Doctor Boss of Ptaras Jaya even quietly bought PTaras Jaya from the open market together with the ESOS at Rm1.90.

As it proved out - PTaras Jaya garnered a nice 31% CAGR for a 10 Year Period from 2006 to 2016!

See Sifu KcChong Price Chart




 
 
 

[stockraider]

BINA PURI - THE STARTLING REVELATION (While Price Goes Down INSIDERS LOADING UP!) Calvin Tan
Author: calvintaneng   |   Publish date: Mon, 3 Oct 2016, 12:10 AM

 I have been reading Sun Tze's Art of War. One particular point is "All warfare involves deception".

 That's how the Japanese during 2nd World War tricked the Mighty British Army in Singapore. The British thought Singapore was impregnable because of its Huge Guns at Fort Siloso, Sentosa Island - pointing at the Pacific Ocean. No Japanese ship appeared at all. The Japanese Army only 36.000 soldiers defeated the British with 135,000 soldiers.
 Japanese Bicycle army came by way of Kota Bahru through Estate Roads - avoiding the major trunk roads which were filled with pill boxes with manned machine guns for protection.

 How did these Jap soldiers know. Well, before 2 WW started there were 6,000 Japanese in Malaya & Singapore working as barbers, 10 cent provision store, photographer & other jobs scattered throughout Malaya. They were actually spies. Secretly they took vital photos, drew up road maps, located all the military installations, defense posts and Heavy Guns of the British.

 At the outbreak of the 2 WW these "spies" returned to Malaya as "soldiers" and being very familiar with Malaya geography led the invasion.
 Now in just weeks Malaya fell & they assembled at Johor.

 There were 36,000 Japanese soldiers versus 135,000 British & Australian soldiers in Singapore.
 General Percival directed his army to defend the Western Side of Spore with the highest fortification & soldiers. He left the Eastern part of Spore near Kranji to the Australian & local poorly trained soldiers - only a miserable 3,000 to defend it.

 Seeing the Heavy Fortification of Changi Beach the Jap really planned their deception well in their Conquest of Spore.
 They got together hundreds of lorries at night. Turned on the head lights & drove them from the Western part of Johor to the Eastern Part of Johor. Then they "switched off" the headlights & drove quietly in the darkness of the night back to the Western part of Johor - turned on the head lights again & drove towards the Eastern part of Spore & repeated this process many, many times throughout the entire - CREATING THE ILLUSION THAT JAPANESE SOLDIERS ARE MOVING MASSIVELY FOR A HEAD ON ATTACK IN CHANGI!

 This deception worked very well according to plan. Gen Percival & his entire army swallowed the bait & sent more artillery & men to the North Eastern Shore of Spore - preparing for the "invasion".
 Then the tens of thousands of Jap soldiers crossed into Kranji. The 3,000 poorly equipped soldiers were caught & surprised & overwhelmed in retreat. When The British found out the truth it was too late!!

 After that the Mighty British with 135,000 soldiers surrendered to the Jap with only 36,000 soldiers. It was a battle of brain over brawn. (Actually 50,000 British & Australian soldiers were captured in Malaya & 85,000 others surrendered in Singapore)

 So what is the moral of the story for BPuri?
 DON'T LOOK AT THE OBVIOUS LIKE GEN PERCIVAL WHO MADE THE FATAL MISTAKE!!

Let me tell you what My Johor Sifu did with Pitaras Jaya. He saw Insiders exercising PTaras Jaya ESOS shares at Rm1.90. But Ptaras Jaya shares weakened to a low of Rm1.40 already down 27%? So? Does price weakness shows Insiders were wrong?
PTaras was in piling. And it has to be paid first or else if there is payment default Ptaras can sue. And the project will be halted. So there is a defensive mode for PTaras Jaya. And Ptaras Jaya Shot up to Rm7.00 & split (Up 500%).

I noticed one counter which I gave my Johor Sifu - YEE LEE. YEE LEE Share price dropped year after year its high of Rm2.62 in year 2000 to its low at only Rm1.00 in year 2005.

These are the prices of YEE LEE (From STOCK PERFORMANCE GUIDE By Dynaquest.  March 2009 Edition)
YEE LEE PRICES
YEAR...........YEAR LOW.............YEAR HIGH
2000...............1.62................ ...........2.62
2001...............1.36................ ............1.87
2002................1.27............... ............2.03
2003................1.12............... .............1.70
2004.................1.16.............. .............1.60
2005.................1.00.............. ..............1.25

As you can SEE from the price chart Year 2000 low was Rm1.62 & by Year 2005 Price has crashed to only Rm1.00.
Anyone who bought YEE LEE in Year 2000 would have suffered losses & given up hope for good. And every anaylst & remisier, stock broker or trader who have wrung their hands and given up on YEE LEE in total despair.

But Lo & Behold!
Calvin spotted INSIDERS & TOP BOSSES LOADING UP ON YEE LEE more & more all the way from Rm2.00 to Rm1.00.
The lower YEE LEE dropped - the more they Loaded Up!! 

As of now YEE LEE closed at Rm2.26. If you add the yearly dividend & reinvested them YEE YEE would be almost Rm2.80. So divide Rm2.80 by 35 cts =  800%. Wow! That's an 800% gain on YEE LEE. Where are you MG9231 the Great Johor Sifu? Better belanjar me to abalone and shark fin if you are reading this!

So there are 2 Things On The Surface
1) YEE LEE Share Prices Crashed from a High of Rm2.62 to a low of Rm1.00 in year 2005
2) Everyone who bought into YEE LEE from Years 2000 to 2004 have suffered losses for 4 long years. And no remisier, stock broker or trader will touch YEE LEE shares.

The Surprising Thing Is This:
In the absence of good news INSIDERS were Loading Up YEE LEE shares!!
I think you lucky guys are now looking at another potential YEE LEE. The Next Super Stock is none other that

BINA PURI!!
Why is it so?

If you look at the Prices of Bina Puri you will find that they are really  deplorable
These are the Year Low & Year High Prices of BINA PURI (From SPG - Dynaquest. Sept 2015 Edition)

Year..........Year Low..........Year High
2010..........0.74....................1 .54
2011..........0.85....................1 .65
2012..........0.80....................1 .05
2013..........0.57....................0 .88
2014..........0.50....................0 .80
2015..........0.33....................0 .65
2016..........0.36....................

From these Price Ranges you can SEE:
BPuri's highest for Year 2010 was Rm1.54 & lowest was in Year 2015 at only 33 cents. So many who bought from Year 2010 to 2014 are still suffering huge losses. So all analysts, remisiers, stock brokers, day traders have Given Up All Hope in Bina Puri & wrung their hands in despair in total capitulation.

The Surprising Thing Is This!

While the Appearance of BPuri looks so deplorable and unpromising as attested by these fellow ~ forumers' comments taken from

BPuri forum tread:
See what they say:
 Posted by valueinvestor > Feb 28, 2015 03:50 PM | Report Abuse

OMG. What kind of company is this?
 Profit after tax = RM 41 mil, BUT
 Profit attributable to shareholders = RM 1 mil only.
 Is the company mostly working for the Non-Controlling Interests only?
 Best to quickly sell and forget about this kind of company altogether!

 Posted by Jolin Lai Chi Pet > Mar 12, 2015 05:56 PM | Report Abuse
this company run by a group of conman! better run......................huge order book but profit so little. Always said cost over run!

 Posted by fatty_tang > Mar 28, 2015 04:57 PM | Report Abuse
this company sucks. the interest rates of their loans are so ^ high (about 8%). with bank borrowings amounted to more than $500 million, $40 million is needed to service the loan annually, explaining why their margin is so ^ thin. can't make money no matter how many projects they secure.

 Posted by wooBo > May 12, 2016 12:18 PM | Report Abuse
masuk longgang

Posted by wooBo > May 16, 2016 10:48 AM | Report Abuse
semua sudah kena BULI la...

Posted by tnang > Jul 26, 2016 12:27 PM | Report Abuse
sell lah, I sell all

 Posted by DaitoRyu > Jul 26, 2016 12:50 PM | Report Abuse
PBH is good for revenue, contribution to profits is minimal!

Posted by tnang > Jul 26, 2016 02:35 PM | Report Abuse
yup, a lot of work, but no profit!!!

Posted by foosf > Aug 31, 2016 02:45 PM | Report Abuse
knock knock knock.... anybody home... why no move liao....

 Posted by georgecostanza > Sep 7, 2016 04:33 PM | Report Abuse
lanciao punya kaunter

 Posted by beso > Sep 20, 2016 10:00 AM | Report Abuse
far far over value sell

Posted by mamatede > Sep 27, 2016 03:49 PM | Report Abuse
Very high PE !
 
Calvin comments:
As you have read from the above posts - almost 90% of the people are very pessimistic on BPuri and call for a sell down on BPuri.

So how to buy leh? Not when you SEE WHAT INSIDERS ARE DOING!!
Now Go SEE the 2015 Annual Report & Scroll to Top 30 Share Holders!

THIRTY LARGEST SHAREHOLDERS
No. of Shares % of Shares
1. RHB Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd. 15,342,778 6.59  for Tan Sri Datuk Tee Hock Seng, JP..........              .6.59%
2. Ng Keong Wee ...........................14,093,600........................................................................................ 6.05
3. Jentera Jati Sdn. Bhd............... 10,388,000.......................................................................................... 4.46
4. Kittipat Songcharoen................. 10,000,000......................................................................................... 4.29
5  Jentera Jati Sdn Bhd (KLC)....... 10,000,000                                                                                               4.29
6. MSX Ventures Sdn. Bhd................ 8,467,600 ....................................... ....................................... ........3.64
7. Datin Lee Kuan Chen.................... 8,000,000....................................................................................... 3.44
8. Datuk Henry Tee Hock Hin............. 5,594,668...................................................................................... 2.40
9. Dato Mohamad Feisal .....................5,238,000..................................................................................... 2.25
10. Dr Tan Cheng Kiat....................... 5,000,000....................................................................................... 2.15
11. Chan Fong Yun............................ 5,000,000....................................................................................... 2.15
12. Dr. Tan Cheng Kiat .......................4,368,902....................................................................................... 1.88
13.  San Tuan Sam ............................ 3,638,800....................................................................................... 1.56
14. Cheo Chet Lan @ Chow Sak Nam, KNM.......... 3,126,884      ....................................... ........................... 1.34
15. Maju Offshore Sdn. Bhd.................................... 3,046,000.................................................................. 1.31
16. Taraf Cendana Sdn. Bhd................................... 3,000,000.................................................................. 1.29
17. Goh Kui Lian................................... .................. 2,860,000................................................................... 1.23
18. Matthew Tee Kai Woon................................... .. 2,818,925................................................................... 1.21
19. Lim Seng Chee ....................................... ..........2,425,500 ....................................... ............................1.04
20. Tay Hock Lee.................................... ................ 1,807,707.................................................................... 0.78
21. Tan Sri Datuk Tee Hock Seng, JP..................... 1,430,000.................................................................... 0.61
22. Foong Ai Lin.................................... .................. 1,426,000................................................................... 0.61
23. Siow Wng Yen @ Siow Kwang Hwa..................1,320,000................................................................... 0.57
 24. Tee Hock Loo.................................... ............... 1,215,207................................................................... 0.52
25. Dato’ Razali Bin Daud, JP................................. 1,123,000................................................................... 0.48
26.  Ng Cheng Lean................................... ............. 1,038,000................................................................... 0.45
27.  Teo Geok Kiam (MY1156)................................ 1,000,000................................................................... 0.43
28. Lye Wee Ken.................................... ................. 1,000,000................................................................... 0.43
29. Tay Hock Soon (MY1055).................................. 898,900..................................................................... 0.39
30. Yeong Ah Sung................................... ............... 880,600                                                                      0.38

                                                             Total............ 135,549,071.............................................................. 58.22

1. Tan Sri Datuk Tee Hock Seng is no. 1 & no. 21 top holders with a total of 7.2% shares of BPuri

Latest filing shows:
Total no of securities after change
Direct (units) 18,489,778
Direct (%) 7.64
Indirect (units) 4,863,925
Indirect (%) 2.01
Total (units) 23,353,703
Total (%) 9.65
Date of Notice 14-Jul-2016
He has increased his holdings to 9.65%

2.  Matthew Tee Kai Woon has only 1.21% according to Annual Report 2015. This Year he is Whacking Up BPuri shares!
Name MR MATTHEW TEE KAI WOON
Descriptions(Class & nominal value) Ordinary shares of RM0.50 each
Details of changes
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
 
Price Transacted ($$)
Others
14/07/2016
 
1,560,000
 
0.500

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred ESOS 
Nature of interest Direct 
Consideration (if any) RM780,000

Total no of securities after change
Direct (units) 4,463,925
Direct (%) 1.844
Indirect/deemed interest (units) 18,889,778
Indirect/deemed interest (%) 7.803
Date of notice 14/07/2016

His share holdings JUMPED from a mere 1.21% to 9.65%

3. Dr Tan Cheng Kiat is no 12 with 1.88%

See how much he added
Particulars of Director

Name DR TAN CHENG KIAT
Descriptions(Class & nominal value) Ordinary shares of RM0.50 each

Details of changes
Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Type of transaction
Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted (RM)
Others
 
11/07/2016
 
300,000
 
0.540

Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred ESOS 
Nature of interest Direct 
Consideration (if any) RM162,000.00

Total no of securities after change
Direct (units) 9,668,902
Direct (%) 4.048
Indirect/deemed interest (units)   
Indirect/deemed interest (%)   
Date of notice 11/07/2016

His share holdings Jumped from 1.88% to a new high of 4.048%!!

So these are the clear evidences of INSIDERS Buying in the absence of good news (only bad news after bad  news)

And who are these 3 Very Active Directors who bought and bought as if there is no tomorrow?

But Their Substantial Buying Tell Us A Lot of The Coming Bright Future of BPuri.

As of now the Top 30 Substatial shareholders are holding almost 80% paid up shares of BPuri. In Annual Report of 2015 you see only a total of 58%. Now with INSIDERS GOBBLING UP ALL CHEAP UNDERVALUE BPURI SHARES PLUS 10% PRIVATE PLACEMENT SHARES There is Very Little Freefloat of BPuri Shares left in the open market.

And WHO WERE THE BUYERS of 21 MILLION BPURI PRIVATE PLACEMENT SHARES AT 50 CENTS!

That's a Rm21 MILLION RINGGIT QUESTION?

[stockraider]

Fong Siling 冯时能 (冷眼)  - The 42 Stocks By Cold Eye

One of the most famous and successful stock market investor in Malaysia, Fong Siling (Cold Eye) has given the public a list of 42 good stocks in Malaysia stock market earlier this year. Fong Siling is a "value investor", like Warren Buffet, who adopts fundamental analysis to identify good stocks and hold for long term.


       "Cold Eye"

Most of us want to know what stocks Mr Fong actually hold. However he probably won't let us know. You can screen all listed companies annual reports to find out their top 30 shareholders to see whether Fong Siling's name is there.

Now you can save your time, as Mr Fong has given us 42 stocks potential which he thinks are worth to invest in or at least pay attention to. This means that he will probably own these stocks or plan to own them in the future.

So if you are lazy to screen the stock market with more than 1000 stacks, just concentrate on these few stocks and pick a few which you think the best after doing your homework.

Below are the summary of the 42 stocks from nanyang press, published on 17 March 2013. Since it was 3 months ago, a lot of things have changed.

Translation in English:

1. PPB - Share price drops recently, mainly due to drop of Singapore major shareholder Wilmar International. However, temporary setback is also an opportunity.

2. Orient - Has good assets. Can pay attention.

3. MSC - Predict that this year it can get good profit & pay dividend. Actually a good blue chip. Has good management team. Besides, the price of tin has risen 40% since last year.

4. Canone - Personal suggestion is "buy". Share price is stagnant recently because of legal issue. Though slight high gearing, but I'm not too concern, as cash flow & earning are very good.

5. PIE - High dividend yield, but share price did not move much.

6. Scientx - Business covers plastic mould & property development. No debt.

7. Tecnic - Has good earning record. Give dividend and no debt.

8. MBSB - Personally think it is good. Has the potential to become a good blue chip, but need time.

9. NHFatt -Has good earning record.

10. Harta - Personally think it is the best glove stock. Though high PE ratio, its future plan is great.

11. Kossan - Personally think that glove market is still growing, must choose strictly. This is not bad.

12. QL - Ordinary business. Continue to grow. A company with a good management team.

13. Jobst - "Not bad" company.

14. Hapseng - A low share price company is not necessarily not good. A good company with diversified business.

15. Suria - Owns all ports in Sabah. Not bad.

16. ECS - Sell computer components. No debt. Has advanced and good management team.

17. Multico - Has good prospect. No borrowing. Has contracts on hand. Has chance to give dividend.

18. Favco - International company. Has factories in many countries. Has many contracts on hand.

19. Faber - Government-linked. Cash rich. Recently announced new contracts. Can give good dividend.

20. FACBInd - Has good cash flow.

21. GCB - Operate largest cocoa factory in the world. Big business. Good management.

22. Coastal - A shipping company. Can pay attention.

23. Benalec - Can pay attention. Do your own homework.

24. GTronic - Profit increased for the past 2 years. Estimate the trend can continue for 2-3 years.

25. Huayang - Property developer. Has good future plan. Build affordable homes.

26. Prestariang - Good dividend policy.

27. P&O - The best in insurance industry.

28. Pwroot - Can pay attention.

29. Unimech - Indonesia's business expands rapidly and can reach Malaysia's business size in 3-4 years. Can even hope to be listed in Indonesia.

30. UOADev - Cash rich. Good business skill.

31. Maybulk - A stock with contrary thinking. Suggest to buy in 2nd half 2013 or 1st half 2014. Company not only involves in shipping, but also ships trading. Recently bought a few good ships, which indicates shipping industry cycle has reach bottom. However, need to wait and do homework.

32. Cypark - Good business. Can pay attention.

33. Hevea - Particleboard and furniture business. Cash rich. Successful in entering China market.

34. Fitters - Diversified business, develops property. Debt free.

35. Daya - Can pay attention. Yearly profit RM2.8 billion, and plans to reach RM10 billion in 2015.

36. Ivory - There is rumour that condominium in Penang are sold at RM700psf, and 70% were sold without advertisement. Estimate that it can be even better after election.

37. L&G - Share price has dropped from peak to bottom, but successfully turned land without value into valuable land. Should perform well in the next 2-3 quarters. Cash rich, low gearing.

38. JCY - Semi conductor industry is affected by business cycle.  Recently its share price begins to rise, but can't guarantee the trend will continue. But, the room for drop is limited.

39. Unisem - Another semi conductor company that worth paying attention to. Can buy when it drops, and hold it.

40. MBL - A plantation company with good dividend yield.

41. MMode - A stock in ACE market. Has cash, in net cash position, pay dividend. Can hold.

42. Tambun - A stock that pay dividend and in net cash position.


You may think that a few stocks are not worth to be in the list or a few other stocks are even better than these. It is your choice, you do your own study, you made your own decision with your own money.

[stockraider]

Fong Siling 冯时能 (冷眼) - “ColdEye” Investing principles kcchongnz

In the previous article in the link appended below, I have written on the principles of Dr. Neoh Soon Kean, one of the pioneers in fundamental investing in the stock market of Singapore and Malaysia.

In this article, I would like to discuss on the principles of another more well-known super investor, ColdEye.
Fong Siling 冯时能 (冷眼) requires no introduction here as he is very well-known in the investing circle. He has worked as a journalist for many years before involving in investing in the share market. His initial investing experience was not good as he had been losing money following other discipline of investing before using the fundamental approach, according what he has written in his book, 冷眼分享集.

He has written a number of books with many fundamental investing principles. I have provided the above eBook and made it a point for my course participants who understand Mandarin to read his book. There are many good philosophies and principles 心得 which investors should enumerate. Here, I am just sharing a few of them with you.

Principles of ColdEye 冷眼心得

ColdEye reverberates the basic principle of Benjamin Graham that Individual investors must have the mind set of investing, rather than speculating. Investing in a stock should be viewed as investing in a part business, and this should be the “right path” to follow. He said,

“正道”就是从商业的角度，依据基本面进行投资。
The first thing an individual investor should learn is not how to make profit, but how not to lose money. Using the “right path” of investing.

股票投资者，最先要学的，不是怎样赚钱，而是怎样不亏本

Although you may not yield fantastic results from the “right path” of investing, at least it won’t make you bankrupt, causing the livelihood of your family in deep hot soup, but lead you to a more care-free life.

循正道投资，也许收获不如你预想的那麽大，但最低限度不会使你倾家荡产，使你的家人的生活陷入水深火热之中，使你的人生之路走得更自在。

On the other hand, speculating is the “left path”, the opposite of the “right path”.

“左道”就是在股市投机。

Speculating on and guessing share prices movement is difficult. It is like trying to catch a slippery eel. He admitted that he can’t do it right most of the time, and he believes nobody can.

猜股市如抓黄鳝
我确实不知道明天，下个月或明年股市会怎样，我也不认为有谁有这样的本领。

In order to follow the “right path”, one must do homework, and by doing your own homework, it is more likely you can produce good investing results.

勤做功课必有收获

What kind of homework? In this respect, ColdEye has a few articles on these as below.

数字数字我爱你！
账里乾坤知多少？

The homework includes company announcements, quarterly and annually financial reports, income statements, balance sheet and cash flows statements, and annual reports. These are the most basic and most important information about a listed company.

勤做功课，就是勤於阅读资料，而最重要的资料，就是公司发表的文告，每季财报和常年报告
书。这些文告、季报和年报，是研究上市公司的最基本和最重要的素材.

If you investing in a company, do not tell me you have no time to do this homework which is important for the outcome of your investment.

不要说“没有时间”
ColdEye has also have cited the importance of investing for the long-term to build wealth. He has given examples of investing in a few stocks; Maybank, Public Bank, Hong Leong Credit, OYL and Oriental Holding; and if an investor has held them for 30 years, RM10000 would have become RM1 million.
Why are most investors so impatient to invest for long-term? A business will generally take a few years to bear fruits, a house needs 3 years to complete, why can’t an investor invest in a share and wait for 3 years, or 5 years?

为什么不能等三年？
股票投资，是许许多多投资管道之一，为什么投资者不能接受以上的两项事实。做事业，你可
以等三、五年，股票投资为什么不能等三、五年？

ColdEye, like those super investors in the US which I have discussed in my link below, also discourages the use of borrowed money to invest, because interest payment of the loan is fixed, but income from the investment is unpredictable.


不过，切忌借钱买股票，理由是利息是固定的，收入却难以预测，故借不得。

The Five Investing Metrics of ColdEye

In one of his presentations given to the public on 16th March 2013, ColdEye listed his investing strategy using 5 metrics that investors should look out for before he invests in that stock:

1. Return on equity, ROE,
2. Cash flows
3. PE ratio
4. Dividend yield and
5. Net tangible asset backing per share, NTA

If you have some basic knowledge in analysing and interpretation of financial statements, these metrics are simple metrics which can be easily extracted from the financial reports.
The strategy suggests to invest in good companies as presented by its high return on equity and good cash flows. These two metrics are also propagated by the super investors in the US as shown in the link below:

The later three metrics measured the price versus value of the companies to invest in. Good companies may not be good investments if the price is not right.
The price-to-earnings ratio, or PE, measure how cheap or expensive a share is selling with respect to its earnings.it is the most common metric used in the investing circles everywhere in the world.
Dividends are tangible cash flows returning to shareholders and important to the overall returns. Besides, it gives a positive signal if a company distribute consistent increasing dividends.

Obviously a higher dividend yield is a better investment. If a company consistently and has the capability to give dividend with a yield of higher than the fixed deposit, it will be a no-brainer investment to me.
The ColdEye investment strategy is reinforced further if the company has good quality net tangible assets, compared to its price.

In this article below, I have attempted to explain each of the metrics mentioned above.

We can see that the 5 metrics of investing of ColdEye cover almost every aspects of sound investing; good companies with the right measurements are found, and selling cheap in every angle. How intuitive is it!
Below I will use some experience of mine using the investment strategy of ColdEye.

Return of stocks using the ColdEye 5 yardsticks
I first posted an article in ********** regarding the ColdEye 5 metrics of investing after his presentation in a public forum in the link below:

After my above post was published in i3investors, it received good response and constructive comments from many forumers. Many of them asked me about if their stocks meet the Cold Eye 5 yardsticks. These are all well documented in this thread in ********** below.

Table 1 in the Appendix shows 9 stocks met the criteria above and were chosen as good investing candidates at about the time on 17th March 2013 basing on the 5 metrics. The return of these stocks were compared to the broad KLCI after two years and nine months as at to date.

As on 23rd December 2015, the average total return of the 9 stocks chosen is 281% in about two years and nine months, with the median return of 61.3%. This return way out-performed the total return of 8.5% of KLCI over the same period.

There are only two stocks, MBL and APM, making negative return, but with relatively small negative return of about 10%. These are also the only under-performers, or 78% of them over-performed the market.

A number of stocks over-performed the market by wide margins. Latitude returned 883%, Prolexus 786%, Liihen 652%, Willow 121% and ECS ICT 61.3%.

The characteristics of the return of this portfolio basing on the ColdEye investing strategy are summarized as below:

Most stocks, seven out of nine, or 78% outperformed the broad index.
Those stocks which outperformed the broad index outperformed it by a very wide margins; three digit returns against 8.5%.
The underperformers underperformed marginally against the market; maximum underperformance is 20%.
The average total return outperformed the broad KLCI index by very wide margin; 281% Vs 8.5%. Similarly, the Median return of the portfolio of 61.3% also way above the return of the broad market.

Conclusions
ColdEye, through his writing shares with us his valuable fundamental investing principles and strategies. The ColdEye 5 metrics in investing appears to be an attractive investing strategy which can provide potential high return with limited downside. The metrics are easy to use and can be quite easily extracted from the three basic financial statements.

For those who are keen to learn about fundamental value investing so that he can do your own homework when investing for long-term wealth building as suggested by ColdEye can contact me for an online investment course for a small fee at

Remember what ColdEye said not to use the excuse of not having time to learn and do your homework if you want to have good outcome in your investment.

With that I wish everyone Merry Christmas and Happy New Year


K C Chong

[stockraider]

6 Ways You're Wasting Your Money And You Don't Even Know It
GET.com
By Fizah Hatman | GET.com – 1 hour 22 minutes ago
Most Singaporeans would probably agree when I say we've been told not to waste anything since we were young. That includes the basics like food, water and even paper. But as we grow older, we learn to stop wasting more important things like money. I know, you're probably telling yourself right now that you're not wasting any money.

Believe it or not, it's the little things that we do that cause us to waste money, even if we're not aware of it. We at GET.com have rounded up 6 ways that you're wasting your money and you don't even know it. Don't worry, we'll throw in some money saving tips for you if you're willing to turn over a new leaf.

1.You Always Tell Yourself "It's On Sale"

I am personally guilty of this from time to time. What can I say, it's easy to give in to temptation when I see a giant SALE sign every time I walk past an H&M.

Walking into any store during any sale is like a one way ticket to broke town. This is where self-discipline comes in. If you weren't planning on buying anything that day, and if you haven't even budgeted for it, then don't buy the item regardless of if it was only $10. At the end of the day, you're technically wasting that money, simply because you don't actually need the thing you're buying.

2. You Left Your Window Or Door Ajar With The Air-Con On

Some of us are blessed with sweatless nights because of air-con. Especially in Singapore, every second that your air-con is on costs money. So if you're not properly insulating your room or your house when your air-con is on, you're basically letting money fly out of your window.

If you leave your window open, your air-con will require more energy to bring down the room temperature. At the root of it, more energy equals to more money.

3. You Buy Kopi Or Bottled Water Every Day

Yes, I know, what are you without your cup of kopi or teh every morning. But look at it this way, if you spend a dollar for every day you head to work, which is about 250 days a year, that's $250 per year that you could have saved for a cheap flight ticket to Bali or something.

If that's not enough of an incentive, then just think about what you could've bought with that $250, it could be a new watch or some make-up. Bring a water bottle to work and maybe just buy yourself a pack of coffee sachets that you can make whenever you need it and you'll be wasting less money.

4. Grocery Shopping When You're Hungry

I know this seems so random, but it's so true! According to a study, shopping when you're hungry will make you buy high-calorie foods and more food in general.

So not only are you wasting money on food you probably can't finish, but you're also going to put on more weight. It's simple, just make sure you've at least eaten something before you go grocery shopping. And while you're at it, make sure you use the right credit card for grocery shopping to earn cashback and rewards on your purchases which helps you save money over time.

5. You're Not Considering Quality

People are always saying 'quality over quantity' and rightfully so. Sometimes by splurging a little bit more in the beginning, you will end up saving more in the long run. We're talking about anything and everything, from the clothes you wear to something as small as your light bulbs at home.

Personally, I feel like this especially applies when you're making big decisions like buying a property. Don't settle for something just because it's cheap, make sure you see it lasting in the long run and only then you will you reap the benefits of not skimping on quality.

6. You Don't Pay Your Bills On Time And In Full

Incurring late charges even though it's only $5 at first, will become such a burden to you over time. Sometimes late charges will also have high interest rates tagged to them which will accumulate and amount to a giant mountain of money that you could have saved.

If you still don't see the harm in not paying on time, at least think about the future when, for example, you might want to spend a little money on new clothes but can't, because of late charges.

If you have credit card bills to pay, here are 4 smart ways to pay off your credit card bills on time.

I think it's safe to say that a common trait to help you stop wasting money is in the ability to plan ahead. I know it seems daunting, but with time and a little bit of effort it'll get easier. Once you get over this stage of wasting money, you can finally start looking into saving your money.